Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/20/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EST MON NOV 19 2012
.UPDATE...STRONG NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER DUE TO LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
CENTRAL FL COAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER LAND...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH. SHORT WAVE ALOFT HAS SPREAD CIRRUS OVER THE AREA
WHILE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST BETWEEN 1-4KFT. NAM12 AND RUC MODELS SHOW
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT DUE TO ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM. WILL BUMP UP MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AROUND FL015-025 EXPECTED THIS
EVENING FOR TAF SITES BUT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES CIGS MAY
ERODE FROM N TO S...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SE GA AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE SEEN CIGS LIFTING AT SSI SLOWLY THIS EVENING...AND
ANTICIPATE THAT BY ABOUT 14Z TUE THAT VFR WILL BEGIN TO PREVAIL
THERE. IMPROVING TREND ALSO FOR JAX-GNV AREAS FOR LATE TUE MORNING
AND THINK VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTN HOURS BUT ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CRG PREVAILING AT VFR DUE TO ATLC OCEAN STRATOCU IN
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NNE. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
GNV DUE TO LIGHT/SHALLOW BR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR ATTM.
&&
.MARINE...NLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN SCA CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT. SEAS
NEAR 5 FT CLOSE TO THE COAST PER NEARSHORE BUOYS RISE TO ABOUT 9-11
FT OFFSHORE PER SWAN GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS BUT WIND/SEA STAY FIRMLY IN SCA
THRESHOLD REST OF TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK DUE TO ELY SWELLS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG WITH
STRONG N TO S LONG SHORE CURRENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 50 70 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 56 66 53 66 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 52 70 49 71 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 57 67 54 68 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 50 72 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 51 74 47 72 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
NASSAU-ST JOHNS.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/SHASHY/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1237 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012
.AVIATION...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KPBI TAF SITE
THROUGH TODAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA. REST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE TAF
SITE FOR KPBI.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE SWINGING TO A 10 TO 30
DEGREE DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. AT
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH TODAY FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM EST SAT NOV 17 2012/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LINGERING WEAK
TROUGH OR WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AROUND THIS
SURFACE FEATURE COMBINED WITH BELOW AVERAGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...INLAND FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE LATEST SREF MODEL PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS AND INDICATE A
GOOD PORTION OF THIS INTERIOR AREA AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
DIPPING INTO THE 1-3 MILE VISIBILITY RANGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
85/AG
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM EST SAT NOV 17 2012/
AVIATION...
AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC
COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND IS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. SHOWERS COULD
BRIEFLY AFFECT ONE OR MORE EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND DECIDED NOT TO
PREVAIL ANY SHRA MENTION. MID LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 17 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE AREA IS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SLOWLY PUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
EASTWARD. THERE IS A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO LAY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE ATLANTIC. THE HIGH, CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND, IS VERY SLOWLY CAUSING THE BOUNDARY TO DRIFT TO
THE EAST AND HAS PUSHED MOST OF THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO FAR, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS NO REAL PUSH
NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARY. RATHER, THE FLOW IS ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. SO, WITH STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
MAINLAND, DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. MODELS ARE INDICATING MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
LOCATED MAINLY OFF SHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN DEEPEN AND INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY, TURNING
IT INTO A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC TO DEVELOP, BUT STILL LOOK ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
ALSO, WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK, SOMEWHAT COOLER, DRIER
AIR WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE
THE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES, THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES, ALLOWING THE AIR TO FEEL
SOMEWHAT DRIER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER S FLA
TUESDAY PRECLUDES PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR THE E COAST. BY WEDNESDAY
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOVES A COLD FRONT TOWARD S FLA
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COOLER. LOWS THURSDAY WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE LOWER 60S SE WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE...
NNE TO NE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFTING MORE
NORTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
NW WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATING.
SOME RISK OF RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE E COAST TODAY...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ATLC WATERS TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW
CONVERGING WITH THE EASTERLY ATLC FLOW OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH, WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH, WELL EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN NEXT WEEK,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. WINDS, OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY,
STILL BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS. AS FOR MINIMUM RH, EXPECT RH`S IN THE
MID 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND, DROPPING INTO THE MID 40 TO
LOW 50 PERCENT RANGE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. RECOVERIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE GOOD EVERY NIGHT, REACHING INTO THE 90 PERCENT
RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 63 79 64 79 / 10 - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 79 65 80 / 10 10 - 10
MIAMI 65 79 65 79 / 10 - - 10
NAPLES 61 75 62 78 / 10 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
413 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
213 PM CST
TONIGHT...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE HAS BECOME STRETCHED OUT WITH A CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE WEST OF THIS
INFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER AND RESULTING IN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTS A CHANNEL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN IL STRETCHING WEST
THROUGH IOWA...THEN A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS THE AREA THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK WAVE THAT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
OVERSPREAD CLOUDS AND LGT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES MON
NGT.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY SLIDE OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
IA/MO/KS/OK. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD SFC TEMPS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT LARGE SCALE FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW PROTECTED
AREAS AND LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO STREAMS...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.
THE OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG MAY BE THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NORTHEAST IL...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
MOISTURE BLEEDING INLAND A FEW MILES.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR EARLY
WEEK...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT THAT SOME
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
CURRENT CONDITIONS IT APPEARS THE SCENARIO OF LIGHT PRECIP IS LOW
FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS
THAT THE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS...WHICH WOULD AID IN DRYING THE
MOISTURE AT THE MID-LVLS. LLVL FLOW MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH COULD ALSO AID IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY POTENT EITHER. MANY PLUMES SUGGEST A DRY
MON NGT/EARLY TUE AS WELL ACROSS THE CWFA. BASED ON THESE
AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE CWFA FOR MON NGT/EARLY TUE...AND ADJUSTED ANY PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WISC/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. IF
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP...IT APPEARS IT MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES.
OVERALL EXPECT JUST CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OF 5
TO 7 DEG C MONDAY...AND 6 TO 8 DEG C TUESDAY. WITH OPTIMAL CONDS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 50S.
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 TEMPS COULD TOUCH 60 DEGREES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL 2M TEMP PLUMES FOR THIS PERIOD ALSO
SUPPORT THIS MAX TEMP FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
MILD...UPR 30S/LOW 40S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
PRECIP CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
WEDNESDAY...
ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR...AND IT APPEARS MOTHER
NATURE WILL COOPERATE AND PRODUCE OPTIMAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ERODE THE CLOUDS TUE NGT/EARLY WED...WITH COULD ALLOW
TEMPS EARLY WED BEFORE SUNRISE TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S. THEN A LARGE
DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED FOR WED AFTERNOON. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF
7 TO 9 DEG C IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OVERHEAD FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH LLVL FLOW TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST/WEST OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TEMPS COULD EASILY
WARM TO 60 DEG ACROSS THE AREA. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
ROCKFORD/KANKAKEE LINE...TEMPS MAY PUSH TO 61 TO 63 DEG.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ANOMALOUS WARM/DRY PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THUR...THEN
STEADILY WEAKEN INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW AND POSSIBLY A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPS. GUIDANCE BECOMES
RATHER NOISY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FROM FRI-SAT...WHICH IS
INDICATED BY THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS THAT THE ENSEMBLES PROG AS
WELL AS OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF. THE FIRST FEW PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MILD WITH TEMPS NEAR 60 TO POSSIBLY THE LOW 60S IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THANKSGIVING...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE FOR FRI/SAT.
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AID IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW THUR NGT/FRI AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -2 TO -5 DEG
C SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION MIDDAY FRI...THUS TEMPS FRI MAY
STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH POSSIBLY THE WARMEST TEMPS FOR THE DAY
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. 500MB SPEED MAX PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
MOISTURE STARVED. AT THIS POINT HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC
POPS...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A POSSIBLE RA/SN
MIX HOWEVER MOISTURE RAPIDLY PIVOTS NORTHEAST BY FRI AFTN/EVE THAT
THIS WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
THEN ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. IN ADDITION THE LONGER TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT THAT TEMPS MAY YET AGAIN PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.CLIMATE...
321 AM CST
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WHILE THE MODERATION WILL HELP OBSERVED TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED DAILY NORMALS THE FACT THAT INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS AND
LOWERING SUN ANGLES RESULT IN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BY
1 DEGREE F ABOUT EVERY 2 DAYS. SO...IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOWERING NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WARMING THAT
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
ARE NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AT MID NOVEMBER.
NORMALS...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
MAX MIN MAX MIN
NOV 01 56 38 56 36
NOV 17 47 32 47 30
NOV 30 40 27 39 24
THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THANSKGIVING...TO COME CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORDS...HERE ARE THE THE
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
NOV 21 72 1913 73 1913
NOV 22 69 1913 69 2010
TRS/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* VARIABLE SE-SSE WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BECOMING STEADIER
SOUTHEAST.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE INFLUENCE SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF
ORD...POTENTIALLY DUE TO INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD. AREAS
FROM UGN TO PWK THAT HAD SEEN A LARGER EAST COMPONENT TO THE
SOUTHERLY WIND HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE DOING SIMILAR. SO
IT APPEARS THAT A LARGER SOUTH WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHI AREA TERMINALS WITH SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN SE AND SSE
AT ORD/MDW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
LATEST HI RES RUC AND HRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE...SUCH AS OCCURRED FRI AND SAT...IS TO DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VICINITY 21-22Z TIME-FRAME.
RESULT IS THAT 5-10 KT SSE WINDS BACK A BIT TO SE-ESE FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON. MARINE OBS SITES CURRENTLY SHOW A SE WIND
DIRECTION AT WAUKEGAN AND BURNHAM HARBORS WITH MESONET OBS
INDICATING LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS FROM JUST ASHORE TO A COUPLE MILES
INLAND SUGGESTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE SHORE AND LITTLE
RESISTANCE TO MOVING GRADUALLY INLAND AS CURRENT SMALL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAND AND WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARDS DUSK AND DISSIPATION OF LAKE BREEZE
EARLY IN THE EVENING WINDS TO RETURN TO SSE-S. SPEEDS TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KT AS STRONGER SSW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING STRONG...SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO BE
ERODED THOUGH WINDS AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER DURING LATER MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ARE ONLY 14-17KT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO
AVERAGE 8-10 KT AFTER SOME SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITH
POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 14-17KT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAFOR PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THANKSGIVING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY...THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH FURTHER WEAKENS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...NO INCREASE IN WINDS
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL IMMEDIATELY FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT...BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR...AND WILL BRING STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO THE LAKE,
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
225 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
213 PM CST
TONIGHT...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE HAS BECOME STRETCHED OUT WITH A CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE WEST OF THIS
INFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER AND RESULTING IN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTS A CHANNEL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN IL STRETCHING WEST
THROUGH IOWA...THEN A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS THE AREA THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK WAVE THAT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
OVERSPREAD CLOUDS AND LGT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES MON
NGT.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY SLIDE OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
IA/MO/KS/OK. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD SFC TEMPS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT LARGE SCALE FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW PROTECTED
AREAS AND LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO STREAMS...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.
THE OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG MAY BE THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NORTHEAST IL...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
MOISTURE BLEEDING INLAND A FEW MILES.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR EARLY
WEEK...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT THAT SOME
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
CURRENT CONDITIONS IT APPEARS THE SCENARIO OF LIGHT PRECIP IS LOW
FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS
THAT THE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS...WHICH WOULD AID IN DRYING THE
MOISTURE AT THE MID-LVLS. LLVL FLOW MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH COULD ALSO AID IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY POTENT EITHER. MANY PLUMES SUGGEST A DRY
MON NGT/EARLY TUE AS WELL ACROSS THE CWFA. BASED ON THESE
AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE CWFA FOR MON NGT/EARLY TUE...AND ADJUSTED ANY PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WISC/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. IF
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP...IT APPEARS IT MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES.
OVERALL EXPECT JUST CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OF 5
TO 7 DEG C MONDAY...AND 6 TO 8 DEG C TUESDAY. WITH OPTIMAL CONDS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 50S.
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 TEMPS COULD TOUCH 60 DEGREES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL 2M TEMP PLUMES FOR THIS PERIOD ALSO
SUPPORT THIS MAX TEMP FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
MILD...UPR 30S/LOW 40S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
PRECIP CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
WEDNESDAY...
ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR...AND IT APPEARS MOTHER
NATURE WILL COOPERATE AND PRODUCE OPTIMAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ERODE THE CLOUDS TUE NGT/EARLY WED...WITH COULD ALLOW
TEMPS EARLY WED BEFORE SUNRISE TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S. THEN A LARGE
DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED FOR WED AFTERNOON. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF
7 TO 9 DEG C IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OVERHEAD FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH LLVL FLOW TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST/WEST OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TEMPS COULD EASILY
WARM TO 60 DEG ACROSS THE AREA. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
ROCKFORD/KANKAKEE LINE...TEMPS MAY PUSH TO 61 TO 63 DEG.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ANOMALOUS WARM/DRY PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THUR...THEN
STEADILY WEAKEN INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW AND POSSIBLY A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPS. GUIDANCE BECOMES
RATHER NOISY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FROM FRI-SAT...WHICH IS
INDICATED BY THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS THAT THE ENSEMBLES PROG AS
WELL AS OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF. THE FIRST FEW PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MILD WITH TEMPS NEAR 60 TO POSSIBLY THE LOW 60S IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THANKSGIVING...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE FOR FRI/SAT.
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AID IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW THUR NGT/FRI AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -2 TO -5 DEG
C SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION MIDDAY FRI...THUS TEMPS FRI MAY
STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH POSSIBLY THE WARMEST TEMPS FOR THE DAY
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. 500MB SPEED MAX PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
MOISTURE STARVED. AT THIS POINT HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC
POPS...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A POSSIBLE RA/SN
MIX HOWEVER MOISTURE RAPIDLY PIVOTS NORTHEAST BY FRI AFTN/EVE THAT
THIS WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
THEN ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. IN ADDITION THE LONGER TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT THAT TEMPS MAY YET AGAIN PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.CLIMATE...
321 AM CST
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WHILE THE MODERATION WILL HELP OBSERVED TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED DAILY NORMALS THE FACT THAT INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS AND
LOWERING SUN ANGLES RESULT IN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BY
1 DEGREE F ABOUT EVERY 2 DAYS. SO...IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOWERING NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WARMING THAT
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
ARE NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AT MID NOVEMBER.
NORMALS...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
MAX MIN MAX MIN
NOV 01 56 38 56 36
NOV 17 47 32 47 30
NOV 30 40 27 39 24
THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THANSKGIVING...TO COME CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORDS...HERE ARE THE THE
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
NOV 21 72 1913 73 1913
NOV 22 69 1913 69 2010
TRS/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND TO ORD VC 22-23Z TIME-FRAME
BACKING WINDS SOMEWHAT FROM SSE TO SE FOR A PERIOD LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LATEST HI RES RUC AND HRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE...SUCH AS OCCURRED FRI AND SAT...IS TO DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VICINITY 21-22Z TIME-FRAME.
RESULT IS THAT 5-10 KT SSE WINDS BACK A BIT TO SE-ESE FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON. MARINE OBS SITES CURRENTLY SHOW A SE WIND
DIRECTION AT WAUKEGAN AND BURNHAM HARBORS WITH MESONET OBS
INDICATING LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS FROM JUST ASHORE TO A COUPLE MILES
INLAND SUGGESTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE SHORE AND LITTLE
RESISTANCE TO MOVING GRADUALLY INLAND AS CURRENT SMALL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAND AND WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARDS DUSK AND DISSIPATION OF LAKE BREEZE
EARLY IN THE EVENING WINDS TO RETURN TO SSE-S. SPEEDS TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KT AS STRONGER SSW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING STRONG...SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO BE
ERODED THOUGH WINDS AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER DURING LATER MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ARE ONLY 14-17KT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO
AVERAGE 8-10 KT AFTER SOME SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITH
POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 14-17KT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAFOR PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ORD WIND VEERING FM SSE TO SE DURING MID-
LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST IL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF FCST.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THANKSGIVING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY...THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH FURTHER WEAKENS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...NO INCREASE IN WINDS
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL IMMEDIATELY FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT...BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR...AND WILL BRING STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO THE LAKE,
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
214 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
213 PM CST
TONIGHT...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE HAS BECOME STRETCHED OUT WITH A CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE WEST OF THIS
INFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER AND RESULTING IN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTS A CHANNEL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN IL STRETCHING WEST
THROUGH IOWA...THEN A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS THE AREA THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK WAVE THAT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
OVERSPREAD CLOUDS AND LGT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES MON
NGT.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY SLIDE OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
IA/MO/KS/OK. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD SFC TEMPS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT LARGE SCALE FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW PROTECTED
AREAS AND LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO STREAMS...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.
THE OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG MAY BE THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NORTHEAST IL...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
MOISTURE BLEEDING INLAND A FEW MILES.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR EARLY
WEEK...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT THAT SOME
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
CURRENT CONDITIONS IT APPEARS THE SCENARIO OF LIGHT PRECIP IS LOW
FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS
THAT THE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS...WHICH WOULD AID IN DRYING THE
MOISTURE AT THE MID-LVLS. LLVL FLOW MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH COULD ALSO AID IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY POTENT EITHER. MANY PLUMES SUGGEST A DRY
MON NGT/EARLY TUE AS WELL ACROSS THE CWFA. BASED ON THESE
AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE CWFA FOR MON NGT/EARLY TUE...AND ADJUSTED ANY PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WISC/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. IF
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP...IT APPEARS IT MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES.
OVERALL EXPECT JUST CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OF 5
TO 7 DEG C MONDAY...AND 6 TO 8 DEG C TUESDAY. WITH OPTIMAL CONDS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 50S.
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 TEMPS COULD TOUCH 60 DEGREES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL 2M TEMP PLUMES FOR THIS PERIOD ALSO
SUPPORT THIS MAX TEMP FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
MILD...UPR 30S/LOW 40S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
PRECIP CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
WEDNESDAY...
ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR...AND IT APPEARS MOTHER
NATURE WILL COOPERATE AND PRODUCE OPTIMAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ERODE THE CLOUDS TUE NGT/EARLY WED...WITH COULD ALLOW
TEMPS EARLY WED BEFORE SUNRISE TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S. THEN A LARGE
DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED FOR WED AFTERNOON. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF
7 TO 9 DEG C IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OVERHEAD FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH LLVL FLOW TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST/WEST OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TEMPS COULD EASILY
WARM TO 60 DEG ACROSS THE AREA. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
ROCKFORD/KANKAKEE LINE...TEMPS MAY PUSH TO 61 TO 63 DEG.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ANOMALOUS WARM/DRY PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THUR...THEN
STEADILY WEAKEN INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW AND POSSIBLY A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPS. GUIDANCE BECOMES
RATHER NOISY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FROM FRI-SAT...WHICH IS
INDICATED BY THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS THAT THE ENSEMBLES PROG AS
WELL AS OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF. THE FIRST FEW PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MILD WITH TEMPS NEAR 60 TO POSSIBLY THE LOW 60S IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THANKSGIVING...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE FOR FRI/SAT.
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AID IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW THUR NGT/FRI AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -2 TO -5 DEG
C SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION MIDDAY FRI...THUS TEMPS FRI MAY
STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH POSSIBLY THE WARMEST TEMPS FOR THE DAY
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. 500MB SPEED MAX PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
MOISTURE STARVED. AT THIS POINT HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC
POPS...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A POSSIBLE RA/SN
MIX HOWEVER MOISTURE RAPIDLY PIVOTS NORTHEAST BY FRI AFTN/EVE THAT
THIS WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
THEN ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. IN ADDITION THE LONGER TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT THAT TEMPS MAY YET AGAIN PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.CLIMATE...
321 AM CST
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WHILE THE MODERATION WILL HELP OBSERVED TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED DAILY NORMALS THE FACT THAT INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS AND
LOWERING SUN ANGLES RESULT IN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BY
1 DEGREE F ABOUT EVERY 2 DAYS. SO...IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOWERING NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WARMING THAT
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
ARE NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AT MID NOVEMBER.
NORMALS...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
MAX MIN MAX MIN
NOV 01 56 38 56 36
NOV 17 47 32 47 30
NOV 30 40 27 39 24
THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THANSKGIVING...TO COME CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORDS...HERE ARE THE THE
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
NOV 21 72 1913 73 1913
NOV 22 69 1913 69 2010
TRS/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND TO ORD VC 22-23Z TIME-FRAME
BACKING WINDS SOMEWHAT FROM SSE TO SE FOR A PERIOD LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LATEST HI RES RUC AND HRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE...SUCH AS OCCURRED FRI AND SAT...IS TO DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VICINITY 21-22Z TIME-FRAME.
RESULT IS THAT 5-10 KT SSE WINDS BACK A BIT TO SE-ESE FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON. MARINE OBS SITES CURRENTLY SHOW A SE WIND
DIRECTION AT WAUKEGAN AND BURNHAM HARBORS WITH MESONET OBS
INDICATING LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS FROM JUST ASHORE TO A COUPLE MILES
INLAND SUGGESTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE SHORE AND LITTLE
RESISTANCE TO MOVING GRADUALLY INLAND AS CURRENT SMALL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAND AND WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARDS DUSK AND DISSIPATION OF LAKE BREEZE
EARLY IN THE EVENING WINDS TO RETURN TO SSE-S. SPEEDS TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KT AS STRONGER SSW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING STRONG...SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO BE
ERODED THOUGH WINDS AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER DURING LATER MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ARE ONLY 14-17KT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO
AVERAGE 8-10 KT AFTER SOME SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITH
POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 14-17KT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAFOR PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ORD WIND VEERING FM SSE TO SE DURING MID-
LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST IL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF FCST.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THANKSGIVING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
249 AM CST
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT BUT MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE. THE LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW LEVELS THAT WOULD POSE
HAZARDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN SHORE AT
THE END OF THE LONG FETCH WHERE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST TOWARD MIDWEEK
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS...SINCE BY THAT TIME THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND MOVED A BIT FARTHER
AWAY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
205 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
321 AM CST
SYNOPSIS...SOME THINGS BECOME CLEARER WHILE OTHER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST BECOME MORE MUDDLED. OVERALL A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN IS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC/UPPER NEW
ENGLAND STRETCHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
WILL REMAINED CENTERED THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED LOCALLY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 60 TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
CLOUDS INCREASE TOMORROW AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH WENT WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. THE LOWS COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THEREFORE EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS
IT APPROACHES THE CWA SO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
AND BY BEST CHANCE I MEAN BEST VERY VERY SLIGHT CHANCE.
PRECIP MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THINKING TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MONDAY DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAA AND CLEARING SKIES.
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN FORCE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US. 850 HPA TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND 10C
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...THEREFORE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ALL-BLEND GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ITS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY MAY BE THE
WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH TEMPS BOTH DAYS AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
MOST PEOPLE WOULD AGREE THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL ABOUT.
EXTENDED...THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WHAT HAPPENS THANKSGIVING EVENING/NIGHT IS THE BIG FORECAST
QUESTION. THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WISCONSIN WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
THE LOW MOVING MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE MERGING TOWARD EACH OTHER...LEANING
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS
THAT DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ALL-BLEND TEMPS OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FORECAST.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE BELIEVED...A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE EXPECTED BETWEEN THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON 850 HPA TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO.
THE GFS FEATURES A MUCH WEAKER COLD AIR PUSH SINCE ITS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS VERY ZONAL. NONETHELESS IT DOES FEATURE 850 HPA TEMPS
BELOW ZERO MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
321 AM CST
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WHILE THE MODERATION WILL HELP OBSERVED TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED DAILY NORMALS THE FACT THAT INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS AND
LOWERING SUN ANGLES RESULT IN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BY
1 DEGREE F ABOUT EVERY 2 DAYS. SO...IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOWERING NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WARMING THAT
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
ARE NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AT MID NOVEMBER.
NORMALS...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
MAX MIN MAX MIN
NOV 01 56 38 56 36
NOV 17 47 32 47 30
NOV 30 40 27 39 24
THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THANSKGIVING...TO COME CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORDS...HERE ARE THE THE
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
NOV 21 72 1913 73 1913
NOV 22 69 1913 69 2010
TRS/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND TO ORD VC 22-23Z TIME-FRAME
BACKING WINDS SOMEWHAT FROM SSE TO SE FOR A PERIOD LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LATEST HI RES RUC AND HRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE...SUCH AS OCCURRED FRI AND SAT...IS TO DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VICINITY 21-22Z TIME-FRAME.
RESULT IS THAT 5-10 KT SSE WINDS BACK A BIT TO SE-ESE FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON. MARINE OBS SITES CURRENTLY SHOW A SE WIND
DIRECTION AT WAUKEGAN AND BURNHAM HARBORS WITH MESONET OBS
INDICATING LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS FROM JUST ASHORE TO A COUPLE MILES
INLAND SUGGESTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE SHORE AND LITTLE
RESISTANCE TO MOVING GRADUALLY INLAND AS CURRENT SMALL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAND AND WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARDS DUSK AND DISSIPATION OF LAKE BREEZE
EARLY IN THE EVENING WINDS TO RETURN TO SSE-S. SPEEDS TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KT AS STRONGER SSW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING STRONG...SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO BE
ERODED THOUGH WINDS AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER DURING LATER MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ARE ONLY 14-17KT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO
AVERAGE 8-10 KT AFTER SOME SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITH
POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 14-17KT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAFOR PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ORD WIND VEERING FM SSE TO SE DURING MID-
LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST IL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF FCST.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THANKSGIVING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
249 AM CST
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT BUT MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE. THE LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW LEVELS THAT WOULD POSE
HAZARDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN SHORE AT
THE END OF THE LONG FETCH WHERE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST TOWARD MIDWEEK
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS...SINCE BY THAT TIME THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND MOVED A BIT FARTHER
AWAY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1201 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
321 AM CST
SYNOPSIS...SOME THINGS BECOME CLEARER WHILE OTHER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST BECOME MORE MUDDLED. OVERALL A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN IS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC/UPPER NEW
ENGLAND STRETCHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
WILL REMAINED CENTERED THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED LOCALLY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 60 TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
CLOUDS INCREASE TOMORROW AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH WENT WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. THE LOWS COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THEREFORE EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS
IT APPROACHES THE CWA SO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
AND BY BEST CHANCE I MEAN BEST VERY VERY SLIGHT CHANCE.
PRECIP MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THINKING TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MONDAY DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAA AND CLEARING SKIES.
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN FORCE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US. 850 HPA TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND 10C
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...THEREFORE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ALL-BLEND GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ITS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY MAY BE THE
WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH TEMPS BOTH DAYS AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
MOST PEOPLE WOULD AGREE THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL ABOUT.
EXTENDED...THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WHAT HAPPENS THANKSGIVING EVENING/NIGHT IS THE BIG FORECAST
QUESTION. THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WISCONSIN WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
THE LOW MOVING MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE MERGING TOWARD EACH OTHER...LEANING
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS
THAT DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ALL-BLEND TEMPS OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FORECAST.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE BELIEVED...A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE EXPECTED BETWEEN THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON 850 HPA TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO.
THE GFS FEATURES A MUCH WEAKER COLD AIR PUSH SINCE ITS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS VERY ZONAL. NONETHELESS IT DOES FEATURE 850 HPA TEMPS
BELOW ZERO MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
321 AM CST
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WHILE THE MODERATION WILL HELP OBSERVED TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED DAILY NORMALS THE FACT THAT INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS AND
LOWERING SUN ANGLES RESULT IN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BY
1 DEGREE F ABOUT EVERY 2 DAYS. SO...IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOWERING NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WARMING THAT
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
ARE NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AT MID NOVEMBER.
NORMALS...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
MAX MIN MAX MIN
NOV 01 56 38 56 36
NOV 17 47 32 47 30
NOV 30 40 27 39 24
THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THANSKGIVING...TO COME CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORDS...HERE ARE THE THE
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
NOV 21 72 1913 73 1913
NOV 22 69 1913 69 2010
TRS/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VC 21-22Z TIME-FRAME
BACKING WINDS SOMEWHAT FROM SSE TO SE.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LATEST HI RES RUC AND HRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE...SUCH AS OCCURRED FRI AND SAT...IS TO DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VICINITY 21-22Z TIME-FRAME.
RESULT IS THAT 5-10 KT SSE WINDS BACK A BIT TO SE-ESE FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON. MARINE OBS SITES CURRENTLY SHOW A SE WIND
DIRECTION AT WAUKEGAN AND BURNHAM HARBORS WITH MESONET OBS
INDICATING LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS FROM JUST ASHORE TO A COUPLE MILES
INLAND SUGGESTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE SHORE AND LITTLE
RESISTANCE TO MOVING GRADUALLY INLAND AS CURRENT SMALL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAND AND WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARDS DUSK AND DISSIPATION OF LAKE BREEZE
EARLY IN THE EVENING WINDS TO RETURN TO SSE-S. SPEEDS TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KT AS STRONGER SSW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING STRONG...SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO BE
ERODED THOUGH WINDS AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER DURING LATER MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ARE ONLY 14-17KT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO
AVERAGE 8-10 KT AFTER SOME SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITH
POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 14-17KT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAFOR PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND VEERING FM SSE TO SE AND ESE DURING
MID AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF FCST.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THANKSGIVING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
249 AM CST
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT BUT MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE. THE LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW LEVELS THAT WOULD POSE
HAZARDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN SHORE AT
THE END OF THE LONG FETCH WHERE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST TOWARD MIDWEEK
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS...SINCE BY THAT TIME THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND MOVED A BIT FARTHER
AWAY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AGAIN TODAY WITH YET ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY
UNFOLDING. MAIN UPDATE IS FOR QUICKER RISE IN THE HOURLY TEMPS
THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY AS THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL IL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH SSE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS STRONG 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGING SW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. ALOFT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WAS ALONG THE WEST COAST WTIH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE OH/TN VALLEYS WHICH PLACES IL IN A SW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT
FOG/HAZE DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING LEAVING SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT 1030 AM WITH SSE
WINDS NEAR 8 MPH OR LESS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
MODELS SLOWLY WEAKEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO MON AS IT STAYS OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES SW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER OVER CENTRAL/SE IL. CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER IA AND MORE
SCATTERED OVER MO/IL TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL IL THROUGH
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING. RUC...
NAM AND HRRR HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON
...BUT WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SINCE CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF
GUIDANCE.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 532 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
QUIET/PREDOMINANTLY VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME.
THIS MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG FOR A
COUPLE HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD CIRRUS CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL BE WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. THESE CIGS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS STAYING A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 24 HRS AGO...WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EXTREME SERN US...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM SERN CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SFC WINDS IN THE
OVERNIGHT LIGHTER...BUT PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SE AS THE SUN
COMES UP. FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ONE OF TEMPERATURES. TWO WAVES
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE QUASI ZONAL FLOW...MON/MON
NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE MODELS ARE SKETCHY
WITH CONSISTENCY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STRUGGLING TO
PRODUCE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...THE ZONE FORECAST IS RUNNING DRY
AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
RATHER QUIET WEATHER AND S/SERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE...APPROACHING LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT WILL COUNTER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RATHER
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND NEAR 40. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT ON MONDAY...AND A
BROAD AREA OF WAA PUSHES UNSEASONABLE HEAT INTO THE SW AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS MONDAY A BIT AHEAD OF GUIDANCE...AS
THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW KICKS OUT OF THE SE. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT. AND
THOUGH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE BOTH PORTRAYING SOME QPF FOR THE
REGION...KEEPING THE POPS RELATIVELY LOW...IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CAT...AND LACK OF COVERAGE POTENTIAL IF NOTHING ELSE. MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING THROUGH THE LAYER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PRIOR TO MONDAY NOT PROVIDING MUCH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. WINDS START TO PICK UP A BIT ON MON WITH AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...BUT STILL NOT MUCH IN EXCESS OF 10 KTS. MODELS
HAVING A BIT OF AN ISSUE WITH THE WAVE ITSELF...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING BACK A BIT AND PASSING A MORE VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY
LATER ON TUESDAY...ALBEIT A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. WILL WATCH
CAREFULLY.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MON...THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK. 850MB TEMPS AT 6-7C WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRANSLATE INTO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. GUIDANCE
HAS NOT COMPLETELY LATCHED ONTO THE WARMING TREND...THOUGH THE
MODEL FIELDS CLEARLY SHOW THE THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS
DEEPENING AND SLOWLY CREEPING INTO THE MIDWEST. HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF ALLBLEND FOR MON- WED...AND A BIT ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY MAY BE COMPLICATED BY AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...BUT SYSTEM STILL HAS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD ALSO HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM AS MONDAYS WAVE WITH
SCANT MOISTURE. KEEPING THE POPS LOW AND THE TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT MODERATE FOR NOW.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1003 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
321 AM CST
SYNOPSIS...SOME THINGS BECOME CLEARER WHILE OTHER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST BECOME MORE MUDDLED. OVERALL A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN IS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC/UPPER NEW
ENGLAND STRETCHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
WILL REMAINED CENTERED THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED LOCALLY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 60 TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
CLOUDS INCREASE TOMORROW AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH WENT WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. THE LOWS COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THEREFORE EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS
IT APPROACHES THE CWA SO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
AND BY BEST CHANCE I MEAN BEST VERY VERY SLIGHT CHANCE.
PRECIP MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THINKING TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MONDAY DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAA AND CLEARING SKIES.
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN FORCE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US. 850 HPA TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND 10C
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...THEREFORE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ALL-BLEND GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ITS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY MAY BE THE
WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH TEMPS BOTH DAYS AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
MOST PEOPLE WOULD AGREE THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL ABOUT.
EXTENDED...THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WHAT HAPPENS THANKSGIVING EVENING/NIGHT IS THE BIG FORECAST
QUESTION. THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WISCONSIN WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
THE LOW MOVING MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE MERGING TOWARD EACH OTHER...LEANING
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS
THAT DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ALL-BLEND TEMPS OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FORECAST.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE BELIEVED...A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE EXPECTED BETWEEN THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON 850 HPA TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO.
THE GFS FEATURES A MUCH WEAKER COLD AIR PUSH SINCE ITS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS VERY ZONAL. NONETHELESS IT DOES FEATURE 850 HPA TEMPS
BELOW ZERO MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
321 AM CST
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WHILE THE MODERATION WILL HELP OBSERVED TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED DAILY NORMALS THE FACT THAT INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS AND
LOWERING SUN ANGLES RESULT IN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BY
1 DEGREE F ABOUT EVERY 2 DAYS. SO...IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOWERING NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WARMING THAT
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
ARE NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AT MID NOVEMBER.
NORMALS...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
MAX MIN MAX MIN
NOV 01 56 38 56 36
NOV 17 47 32 47 30
NOV 30 40 27 39 24
THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THANSKGIVING...TO COME CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORDS...HERE ARE THE THE
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
NOV 21 72 1913 73 1913
NOV 22 69 1913 69 2010
TRS/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VC 21-22Z TIME-FRAME.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
LATEST RUC AND HRR MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING A WEAK LAKE BREEZE...
SUCH AS OCCURRED FRI AND SAT...DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND TO
MDW AND ORD VC 21-22Z TIME-FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE BACKING
TO SE-ESE THERE TERMINALS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
TRS
PREVIOUS...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH LATEST ASOS OBS AT ISSUANCE TIME
WERE SHOWING CALM WINDS...OPTED TO KEEP A SSE DIRECTION AND 5 KTS
IN THE TAFS TO HELP CRAFT A PLAN TO START OF THE DAY. THIS ALSO
MATCHES THE WINDS REPORTED ELSEWHERE AROUND ORD AS RELAYED BY THE
CWSU. DID NOT ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN GUSTS OR MINOR VARIATIONS IN
DIRECTION THAT COULD OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD TURN FARTHER TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND VEERING FM SSE TO SE AND ESE DURING
MID AFTERNOON WITH WEAK LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF FCST.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THANKSGIVING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
249 AM CST
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT BUT MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE. THE LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW LEVELS THAT WOULD POSE
HAZARDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN SHORE AT
THE END OF THE LONG FETCH WHERE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST TOWARD MIDWEEK
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS...SINCE BY THAT TIME THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND MOVED A BIT FARTHER
AWAY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
824 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
321 AM CST
SYNOPSIS...SOME THINGS BECOME CLEARER WHILE OTHER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST BECOME MORE MUDDLED. OVERALL A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN IS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC/UPPER NEW
ENGLAND STRETCHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
WILL REMAINED CENTERED THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED LOCALLY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 60 TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
CLOUDS INCREASE TOMORROW AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH WENT WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. THE LOWS COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THEREFORE EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS
IT APPROACHES THE CWA SO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
AND BY BEST CHANCE I MEAN BEST VERY VERY SLIGHT CHANCE.
PRECIP MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THINKING TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MONDAY DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAA AND CLEARING SKIES.
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN FORCE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US. 850 HPA TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND 10C
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING...THEREFORE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ALL-BLEND GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ITS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY MAY BE THE
WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH TEMPS BOTH DAYS AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
MOST PEOPLE WOULD AGREE THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL ABOUT.
EXTENDED...THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WHAT HAPPENS THANKSGIVING EVENING/NIGHT IS THE BIG FORECAST
QUESTION. THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WISCONSIN WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
THE LOW MOVING MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE MERGING TOWARD EACH OTHER...LEANING
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS
THAT DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ALL-BLEND TEMPS OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FORECAST.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE BELIEVED...A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE EXPECTED BETWEEN THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON 850 HPA TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO.
THE GFS FEATURES A MUCH WEAKER COLD AIR PUSH SINCE ITS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS VERY ZONAL. NONETHELESS IT DOES FEATURE 850 HPA TEMPS
BELOW ZERO MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
321 AM CST
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WHILE THE MODERATION WILL HELP OBSERVED TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED DAILY NORMALS THE FACT THAT INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS AND
LOWERING SUN ANGLES RESULT IN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BY
1 DEGREE F ABOUT EVERY 2 DAYS. SO...IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOWERING NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WARMING THAT
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
ARE NOW ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AT MID NOVEMBER.
NORMALS...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
MAX MIN MAX MIN
NOV 01 56 38 56 36
NOV 17 47 32 47 30
NOV 30 40 27 39 24
THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THANSKGIVING...TO COME CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORDS...HERE ARE THE THE
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
NOV 21 72 1913 73 1913
NOV 22 69 1913 69 2010
TRS/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND TO MDW AND ORD VC 21-22Z TIME-FRAME.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
LATEST RUC AND HRR MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING A WEAK LAKE BREEZE...
SUCH AS OCCURRED FRI AND SAT...DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND TO
MDW AND ORD VC 21-22Z TIME-FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE BACKING
TO SE-ESE THERE TERMINALS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
TRS
PREVIOUS...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH LATEST ASOS OBS AT ISSUANCE TIME
WERE SHOWING CALM WINDS...OPTED TO KEEP A SSE DIRECTION AND 5 KTS
IN THE TAFS TO HELP CRAFT A PLAN TO START OF THE DAY. THIS ALSO
MATCHES THE WINDS REPORTED ELSEWHERE AROUND ORD AS RELAYED BY THE
CWSU. DID NOT ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN GUSTS OR MINOR VARIATIONS IN
DIRECTION THAT COULD OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD TURN FARTHER TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS STAYING WELL ABOVE IFR...BUT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS DUE TO HAZE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND TRENDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THANKSGIVING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
249 AM CST
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT BUT MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE. THE LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW LEVELS THAT WOULD POSE
HAZARDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN SHORE AT
THE END OF THE LONG FETCH WHERE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST TOWARD MIDWEEK
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS...SINCE BY THAT TIME THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND MOVED A BIT FARTHER
AWAY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
307 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 24 HRS AGO...WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EXTREME SERN US...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM SERN CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SFC WINDS IN THE
OVERNIGHT LIGHTER...BUT PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SE AS THE SUN
COMES UP. FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ONE OF TEMPERATURES. TWO WAVES
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE QUASI ZONAL FLOW...MON/MON
NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE MODELS ARE SKETCHY
WITH CONSISTENCY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STRUGGLING TO
PRODUCE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...THE ZONE FORECAST IS RUNNING DRY
AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
RATHER QUIET WEATHER AND S/SERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE...APPROACHING LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT WILL COUNTER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RATHER
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND NEAR 40. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT ON MONDAY...AND A
BROAD AREA OF WAA PUSHES UNSEASONABLE HEAT INTO THE SW AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS MONDAY A BIT AHEAD OF GUIDANCE...AS
THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW KICKS OUT OF THE SE. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT. AND
THOUGH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE BOTH PORTRAYING SOME QPF FOR THE
REGION...KEEPING THE POPS RELATIVELY LOW...IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CAT...AND LACK OF COVERAGE POTENTIAL IF NOTHING ELSE. MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING THROUGH THE LAYER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PRIOR TO MONDAY NOT PROVIDING MUCH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. WINDS START TO PICK UP A BIT ON MON WITH AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...BUT STILL NOT MUCH IN EXCESS OF 10 KTS. MODELS
HAVING A BIT OF AN ISSUE WITH THE WAVE ITSELF...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING BACK A BIT AND PASSING A MORE VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY
LATER ON TUESDAY...ALBEIT A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. WILL WATCH
CAREFULLY.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MON...THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK. 850MB TEMPS AT 6-7C WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRANSLATE INTO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. GUIDANCE
HAS NOT COMPLETELY LATCHED ONTO THE WARMING TREND...THOUGH THE
MODEL FIELDS CLEARLY SHOW THE THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS
DEEPENING AND SLOWLY CREEPING INTO THE MIDWEST. HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF ALLBLEND FOR MON- WED...AND A BIT ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY MAY BE COMPLICATED BY AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...BUT SYSTEM STILL HAS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD ALSO HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM AS MONDAYS WAVE WITH
SCANT MOISTURE. KEEPING THE POPS LOW AND THE TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT MODERATE FOR NOW.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING MVFR VIS OF 4-5SM BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON A SIMILAR AIRMASS TO LAST
NIGHT...WE KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT BMI FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FROM 10/11Z TO 15/16Z. CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT
TO THE EAST...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT OUR
AIR TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR THE WET BULB LATER TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT AND PERIODIC CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM MAINE TO EASTERN TEXAS WILL
BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST OR CALM OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
SKY OCCASIONALLY TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP TO
PROVIDE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THAT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD
REMAIN 4SM OR BETTER...SO NO REAL NEED TO ADD TO THE GRIDS AS
IMPACT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OF ILLINOIS SUNDAY
MORNING...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BEGIN WARMING ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THAT WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
OUR LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT LOOKED ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY IN THE REMAINING GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. NO FORMAL UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED
THIS EVENING.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING MVFR VIS OF 4-5SM BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON A SIMILAR AIRMASS TO LAST
NIGHT...WE KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT BMI FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FROM 10/11Z TO 15/16Z. CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT
TO THE EAST...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT OUR
AIR TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR THE WET BULB LATER TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT AND PERIODIC CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012
ANOTHER DAY OF NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING PCPN
CHANCES MON AND MON NIGHT...AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ONLY MAKING MINOR CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE ONE SHORT WAVE/SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT. SO CONFIDENCE HAS NOT
CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRSS RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WAA TO OCCUR BACK INTO THE AREA AND AN
INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE GULF AND CUTOFF ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING TOWARD AND INTO
THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. SO WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY CLOSE TO AS IS AND
STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST FOR MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE WELL IN
THE WARM SECTOR SO AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY...ANY PCPN WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED
WARMER GUIDANCE...MET...FOR SUNDAY AND THEN BLEND FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW...THEN WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON WAA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STILL LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN FOR REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS SHOW A TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES HAVE GFS
QUICKER THAN ECMWF. ECMWF IS ALSO DEEPER WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SO WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST CWA...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO GOING FORECAST. REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CUTOFF BY THE SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM/ABOVE NORMAL WED AND THURSDAY...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR FRIDAY
AND SAT...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
606 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE TAFS WERE
WRITTEN ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OR REMAIN NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE TO
THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
VISIBILITIES UNDER THE CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 3SM TO 5SM RANGE
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TO THE WEST...INCLUDING
KCID...WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FOG WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY CIGS. LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG BEWTEEN 09Z AND 15Z CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS DRAW IN DRIER AIR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
DLF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT 850MB A MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE UP INTO CENTRAL IOWA. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOW A CONTINUED DECREASE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE OVERALL FORCING
WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CLEARING AND WERE NOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A VERY WEAK LOW ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER EAST OF
KAMA WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S IN A BROAD MOISTURE PLUME
FROM TEXAS INTO IOWA WITH 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE ONLY EXPLANATION FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWFA SINCE LATE MORNING IS CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROF. THIS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON SO THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHRA TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IN THE EASTERN CWFA.
GOING ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT...THE
OVERALL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY BREAK UP IN THE WESTERN CWFA. IN THE
EASTERN CWFA LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE RAP TRENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE DISTURBING. THE CONVERGENT FLOW IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN AND THE RAP IS INDICATING THAT A WEAK LOW
WILL MOVE ALONG THE TROF INTO THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RE-DEVELOP OR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CLEAR AREAS. THUS WILL
ADD AREAS OF FOG IN THE WESTERN CWFA AND PATCHY FOG EAST WHERE THE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER.
I CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEADLINE FOR THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOW THE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOP/EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE KEY. IF ONE HAD TO ASSIGN A
PROBABILITY IT IS CURRENTLY 1 IN 5 OR 1 IN 4 REGARDING A HEADLINE.
ASSUMING THAT LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THEY WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RATE OF
CLEARING ON TUESDAY IS A CONCERN GIVEN THE WEAK SUN. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET
TUESDAY. IF THAT OCCURS...THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
ARE TOO WARM. ..08..
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING STILL ON
TRACK TO GET PRESSED ACRS THE REGION THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR OUT OF CLOUDS WILL
MAKE FOR A COOLER NIGHT TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S.
DEPENDING ON TUE AFTERNOON CLOUD CLEAR OUT...THE LATER THE CLEARING
TREND AND THUS REDUCING THE SFC MIX OUT DRYING...TUE NIGHT MAY BE AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL FOG SET UP ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR.
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR NOW BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS FOR WED...TEMPORARY OMEGA BLOCK OVER
STRENGTHENING WARMING LLVL RETURN FLOW STILL APPEAR ON TAP. EXTENT OF
AVERAGED LLVL THERMAL DRAW BY THE MAJORITY OF THE NEW 12Z RUN MODELS
AND MIXING UP INTO BASE ON BUILDING WARM WEDGE ALOFT SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO THE MID
60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSEASONABLY MILD WED NIGHT AND IF SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS CAN MAINTAIN AT 5-10 KTS...MANY AREAL TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID-UPPER 40S. BUT MAY PLAY IT COOLER IN CASE
OF ANY SFC WIND DECREASE EVEN IF TEMPORARY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... INCOMING PACIFIC NW WAVE ENERGY/DEVELOPING
CYCLONE ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROJECTED
BY LATER RUNS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DVN CWA THU EVENING. ACTUAL FROPA
OCCURRING ACRS THE MS RVR FROM THE WEST PROGGED BY ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW
LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z FRI...THUS THE BULK OF THU
THE DVN CWA TO BE IN BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STOUT INVERSION
ALOFT AND INCREASE IN LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS COULD BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PREVENT A RECORD MILD THANKSGIVING. IF IT WERE
NOT FOR THOSE FACTORS...SOME AREAS WOULD HIT 70 OR HIGHER. BUT
WILL WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE LOW TO MID 60S. STRENGTH OF LLVL FRONT
ITSELF AND MID-UPPER LOW ROLLING ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FROPA PROCESS. BUT IF LATER RUNS TREND
WETTER...SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AN POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT ALL DEPENDS ON ANY BUILD UP OF
INSTABILITY IF IT CAN AS THU PROGRESSES. DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
TIMING...LATE NIGHT SWITCH OVER TO LLVL COLD CONVEYOR COULD PLUNGE
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. FRIDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A MUCH COLDER BLUSTERY DAY IN
SUBSIDING DRY SLOT OFF GRT LKS CYCLONE...WITH HIGHS HAVING TROUBLE
GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST
OVER 30 MPH. WRAP AROUND SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ACRS SOUTHERN WI. IF SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES FRI NIGHT...LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO
EVEN UPPER TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A QUICK RETURN TO PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLIES/ FLATTENED FLOW PATTERN ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS...THUS DRY
AND THERMALLY MODERATING WX INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS BY
SUNDAY BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH SOME RETURN FLOW MIXING
AND INSOLATION. AS FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST ENOUGH WAVE ENERGY/UPPER JET INFLUX DIGGING
INTO THE WEST FOR AN EVENTUAL L/W TROF COMPLEX ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ROCKIES AND GRT BSN. MANY COMPLEX PHASING ISSUES TO BE RESOLVED THAT
FAR OUT...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL OF A LOADED SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ACRS THE WESTERN TO MID CONUS WITH COLD AIR TRYING TO DUMP DOWN THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STREAMS UP
NORTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE L/W TROF...COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
INTERESTING MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. STAY TUNED. ..12..
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/20 AND POSSIBLY BEYOND
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. THE RAP MODEL TRENDS SHOW CONVERGENCE BECOMING
STRONGER AFT 06Z/20 WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THUS THERE IS
NOW A REAL CONCERN OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT 06Z/20 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS. THIS POSSIBILITY IS CURRENTLY NOT
IN THE TAFS THAT WERE ISSUED AT 18Z/19. THE 18Z TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
TO SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT 06Z/20 WITH POTENTIAL MARGINAL
IFR. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1008 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
SUMMARY...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF FORECAST.
TODAY...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF
FOG FORMATION YET...BUT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY
83. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT
RAOBS/MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY. ONLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WITH
LACK OF AIR MASS CHANGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...500 MB FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL BEGINNING TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE STARTING AROUND
12Z.
MONDAY...DRY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE NORTH BEHIND A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL...THE COOLING IS VERY SLIGHT...ONLY ABOUT 1 DEGREE
CELSIUS. ONCE AGAIN...PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK DECENT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
REFORM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS AND WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG
US/CANADA BORDER. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT COME
CLOSE TO THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE THE MOST
WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IS AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. RH VALUES
STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR RFW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER THE CWA AND WINDS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
CRITERIA.
OVERALL...STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE. WED HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70F...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60F THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIODS AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S EACH NIGHT...WHICH IS IS STILL ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT FOG
FORMATION...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR KMCK FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
REPUBLICAN RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
428 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OCCASIONALLY MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES AT KITR/KMCK DROPPED INTO
THE MID 20S. ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TRIBUNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT FOG EARLIER THIS
MORNING...AND THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOG ACROSS
SHERMAN AND THOMAS COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE. WILL KEEP FOG MENTIONED
IN THE FORECASTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
SUMMARY...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF FORECAST.
TODAY...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF
FOG FORMATION YET...BUT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY
83. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT
RAOBS/MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY. ONLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WITH
LACK OF AIR MASS CHANGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...500 MB FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL BEGINNING TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE STARTING AROUND
12Z.
MONDAY...DRY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE NORTH BEHIND A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL...THE COOLING IS VERY SLIGHT...ONLY ABOUT 1 DEGREE
CELSIUS. ONCE AGAIN...PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK DECENT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
REFORM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS AND WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG
US/CANADA BORDER. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT COME
CLOSE TO THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE THE MOST
WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IS AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. RH VALUES
STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR RFW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER THE CWA AND WINDS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
CRITERIA.
OVERALL...STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE. WED HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70F...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60F THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIODS AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S EACH NIGHT...WHICH IS IS STILL ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER FOG WILL FORM FROM
12-15Z. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS LOWER VISIBILITIES TO KGLD...BUT
NOT TO KMCK. SATELLITE IMAGERGY CONTINUES TO SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF
FOG. GIVEN DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 2-3 DEGREES AND LITTLE
WIND...WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND THREE
MILES AT KGLD. WILL KEEP KMCK FREE OF ANY FOG. REGARDLESS...BOTH
SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 16Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
145 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
SUMMARY...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF FORECAST.
TODAY...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF
FOG FORMATION YET...BUT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY
83. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT
RAOBS/MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY. ONLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WITH
LACK OF AIR MASS CHANGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...500 MB FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL BEGINNING TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE STARTING AROUND
12Z.
MONDAY...DRY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE NORTH BEHIND A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL...THE COOLING IS VERY SLIGHT...ONLY ABOUT 1 DEGREE
CELSIUS. ONCE AGAIN...PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK DECENT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
REFORM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS AND WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG
US/CANADA BORDER. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT COME
CLOSE TO THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE THE MOST
WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IS AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. RH VALUES
STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR RFW CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER THE CWA AND WINDS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
CRITERIA.
OVERALL...STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE. WED HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70F...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60F THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIODS AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S EACH NIGHT...WHICH IS IS STILL ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT NOV 17 2012
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KGLD AND EXPECTED AT KMCK
AFTER 10Z OR SO THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WILL BE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH W/NW WINDS
BEHIND IT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
901 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
ALTHOUGH NOT REGISTERED THROUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE KVWX
RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING ENOUGH 20+ DBZ RETURNS AT 0.5 DEGREE
ELEVATION TO WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH THIS IN MIND AND WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE...ADDED A SMALL
POP/WEATHER CHANCE MAINLY OVER THE WEST KENTUCKY PENNYRILE THROUGH
05Z /11 PM CST/.
UPPER AIR CHARTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF MINOR WAVES ROTATING
INTO THE BROAD TROUGH WITH THE BASE WEST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE FLUCTUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...ADJUSTED THE NET OPAQUE CLOUD COVER TO MOVE THE CLOUDS
WITH THE MEAN FLOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT
SCENARIO...HAD TO INCREASE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3-4
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PERSIST
FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT AS AN AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD HELP BUOY TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
CLOUDS AND WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SEMO WHICH
IS HELPING TO DRY UP ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT FROM THIS MORNING. MAY
HAVE HAD A FEW SPRINKLES OVER RIPLEY AND CARTER COUNTIES...BUT THAT
WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS HAVE AFFECTED TEMPERATURES WITH SEMO
REMAINING AROUND 60.
THIS CLOUD BANK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
AS THE LOWEST 5K FT REMAIN DRY.
A SHORTWAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HANG ON THERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DRIER AIR MOVING MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND SOME FOG POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
WE WILL START OUT ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD...THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER...THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF IN MOVING THE
RIDGE EAST AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF STILL HAS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA WITH
THE IMPENDING SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT SAME TIME WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN FRINGES.
THE GFS HAS SPENT SEVERAL RUNS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL SEE ANY PRECIP PRIOR TO 00Z
FRIDAY...BUT CONSENSUS SAYS THAT THINGS WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY. IN
FACT...THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF KEEPS US DRY THROUGH 06Z AND THIS MODEL HAS
BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON THAT FOR A WHILE NOW TOO...WHETHER TO START
PRECIP ON THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE GFS INDICATE RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON THANKSGIVING...MOVING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS
HAS HAD A PROBLEM OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...FIGURING OUT HOW LONG THE
PRECIP WAS GOING TO LINGER ON FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW...THE 12Z GFS INDICATE THAT FRIDAY MORNING MIGHT END UP
BEING DRY. THE SLOWER 00Z/12Z ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO RAIN CHANCES
THOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. THINK THE GOING FORECAST RESEMBLES A GOOD BLEND OF SEVERAL
DAYS OF MODEL RUNS AND IS A GOOD COMPROMISE TO ALL OF THOSE RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BOTTOM LINE: CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMTS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT AT THIS POINT...AND GFS ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
ON FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES...AND
BRING A NICE POCKET OF COLD AIR WITH IT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DEEPER WITH THIS TROUGH
AND HENCE BRINGS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...IT IS A
PRETTY POTENT POCKET OF COLD AIR...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING H850 TEMPS
AROUND -11C DEG ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE 12Z GFS HAS LOCKED INTO SOMETHING NOW SINCE IT TOO BRINGS COLDER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH. IT IS NOT QUITE LIKE THE ECMWF BUT AT LEAST IT IS
CLOSER. PLUS THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE COLDER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE A DROP IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...SO WILL LOWER HIGHS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FROM
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO THIS WEEK AND COULD END UP BEING 10 DEG
COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS GIVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S.
THERE IS NOW QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE HIGH MOVING
EAST AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
IN EARNEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS DEVELOPING TO OUR S/SW...WHICH
ENDS UP CAUSING SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOW TO MOVE THE
SFC HIGH EAST BUT FINALLY DOES SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE OVER AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT WHAT DOES SEEM PROBABLE AT THIS POINT IS
SEEING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE RUNS ON THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND VEER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.
DECIDED TO INDICATE A WEAK SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT KOWB WHERE IT WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE BEFORE 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WIND
SHIFT...AND IT MAY VERY WELL NOT REACH ANY TAF SITES BEFORE 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR SKIES...MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY FROM 10KFT TO AROUND 5KFT BY MORNING. CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THEY MAY FLIRT WITH 3KFT
IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
823 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WAA AND KATABATIC WINDS. RIDGES ARE
ALREADY MIXED EVIDENT BY LBE IN THE LOWER 40S AS OF 13Z. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AS A MCLR SKY IS AGAIN
PREDICTED. BUMPED MAXT TEMPS UP A CATEGORY...DUE TO A POSITIVE H8
24HR DELTA OF 2-3 AND MODEST SE WIND TRAJECTORY. HRRR DID AN
EXCELLENT JOB ON MAXT YDY...SO FOLLOWED IT TODAY...BUT SHAVED A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE LOWLANDS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE MTNS.
THAT SAID...LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST, AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THE FEATURE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
- NO BIG STORMS OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- FOLLOWED ECMWF
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WHICH IS GOOD GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND THE LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE OUT TRAVELING FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A TRANSITORY H5 ANTI-CYCLONE ALLOWS A
SUNNY AND MILD TURKEY DAY. THE NEXT SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE A
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT MINIMAL QPF AT
BEST. NW FLOW RESULTING FROM FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OVER
NEW ENGLAND ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RW/SW TO DEVELOP SAT. H8 TEMPS
AT THIS TIME ARE PROGGED IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...BUT DUE TO LESS
THAN OPTIMAL INVERSION HEIGHTS...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS PROJECTED
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LGT WND THROUGH
TODAY.
.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION AREAS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE MAY SPAWN SOME LGT SHOWERS AND MID LVL CLDS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight - Monday:
The main challenges through this period are the timing/onset of
precipitation and the duration into the Monday period. Water vapor
imagery was showing the weak upper level disturbance moving out of
the Southern Rockies and into the Plains. Radar and visible/IR
imagery show what also may be a weak baroclinic zone across south
central to eastern Nebraska with a few light returns showing up on
radar. The GFS does indicate a slightly tighter theta-e gradient
aloft through this area. The radar returns are consistent with the
latest HRRR run, albeit a few hours delayed, which develops
precipitation in this area this afternoon. Precipitation should
increase in coverage across the eastern half of Kansas this evening
as the support from the upper wave moves into the region. Think that
the timing of precipitation in our western zones will be in the 2-3Z
window and persist for 4-6 hours as the whole area moves into our
eastern zones. It still looks like coverage will be in the 50% range
and precipitation totals will be less than a quarter inch for those
that do pick up rain. Precipitation still looks to be coming to end
by mid day Monday. There could potentially be a few sprinkles Monday
afternoon as another weak wave will be tracking into the area. But
models are in good agreement moving any QPF away from the area
during the afternoon so the chances of precipitation look too small
to mention at this time.
High temperatures on Monday will be restrained a bit in our eastern
zones as cloud cover will be exiting the area preventing a warm up
like our western zones are expected to see. Overall, highs will
range from the low to mid 60s in our west to the middle 50s in our
east.
Tuesday - Tuesday Night:
Quiet weather with above normal temperatures are expected this
period. High temperatures should climb into the 60s across the area
but may be inhibited by weak flow and limited mixing. Overnight lows
should be mild for this time of year with lows generally in the low
to mid 40s. With light winds overnight, some of our typical low
lying/ drainage areas may fall into the 30s.
CDB
Wednesday - Sunday:
Model consensus is a continuation of near to above average
temperatures during this period with little in the way of
precipitation. Travel day on Wednesday looks outstanding with
temperatures nearing the 70 degree mark possible in the far western
CWA.
Most of the focus is on Thursday/Thanksgiving. An upper level ridge
will exit the region on Wednesday as another impulse within the
southern stream lifts northeast from the Southern Rockies on
Thanksgiving. Despite a lack of low level moisture there is
increasing support from the GFS and ECMWF that sufficient mid level
Pacific moisture will be available for scattered light showers as a
weak cold front drops southeast through MO Thursday night. Have
nudged Thursday night pops up to chance category for the far
southern counties.
A large vortex over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to eject a
significant piece of energy eastward at the start of the period. The
resulting shortwave trough will dig/deepen southeast through the
Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes Thursday night/Friday. Any weather
with this feature will track to the north but a secondary cold front
will pass through on Friday and reinforce an intrusion of colder
air. Have gone along with model consensus on temperatures but the
trend is towards more cooling and can envision later forecasts
tweaking Friday`s temperatures downward some more.
Zonal flow through the mid levels and warm air advection in the
boundary layer will return for the dry weekend.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions are likely to occur throughout the
valid period. The one exception will be for a few hours tonight as an
upper level disturbance tracks across the region. As it does, widely
scattered to scattered rain showers are possible at the terminals.
This system will not have a lot of moisture to work with and the
system itself is rather weak. So the result is a higher probability
for VFR conditions as the wave is tracking through than sub-VFR
conditions. During any showers, ceilings may fall to around 4 to 5
thousand feet and the shower intensity should not be strong enough to
restrict visibilities.
Outside of the rain chances tonight, winds will be rather strong and
gusty from the south this afternoon before diminishing some tonight.
Winds will also increase again from the south to southwest by late
tomorrow morning or by noon but do not look to be as strong as this
afternoon.
CDB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
305 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
MAIN FAIRLY MINOR ISSUE CONSISTING OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH
TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
DOWN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER...TRAILING SOUTH FROM A 1005MB LOW AT
THE WY/MT/SD INTERSECTION. MEANWHILE...AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE CWA LIES
ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL MIXING GENERALLY INTO THE 900-875MB
RANGE DRIVING SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED BREEZES TYPICALLY 13-23 MPH WITH
GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 MPH. VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS A RATHER
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA. RADAR
EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW SPRINKLES MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE COUNTIES. THESE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE HAVING A VARYING EFFECT ON TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BOTH KS ZONES AND NORTHERN ZONES IN NEB VERY MUCH
ON TRACK TO NEAR FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WHILE CENTRAL
AREAS INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES MAY FALL A BIT SHORT AND STRUGGLE
TO REACH 60. THE CLOUDS HAVE LIKELY ALSO REDUCED MIXING SOMEWHAT
AND HELD DOWN WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTS BROAD QUASI-ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS...WITH A PAIR OF FAIRLY
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A
MORE SUBTLE LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT
OF CO/WY...INTO NEB/KS...WITH THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 70+KT 300MB
JET STREAK.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THIS LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE ONGOING BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CLEARING THE CWA FROM WEST-EAST AND PAVING THE WAY FOR A CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR TO THIS HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE-STARVED
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION
EVIDENT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALVES OF
NEB/KS. DESPITE PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ESPECIALLY BELOW 700MB...WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH 10 PM FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM YORK-NELSON-OSBORNE...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
DESPITE VARIOUS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS KEEPING ALL QPF
EAST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING...THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALREADY
OBSERVED WITHIN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
THE 1KM REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM THE LATEST HRRR MAKE ME UNWILLING
TO COMPLETELY IGNORE SPRINKLE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT ANYTHING MEASURABLE SHOULD FOCUS WELL
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS MENTIONED...THE OVERNIGHT
WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA...TURNING LIGHT BREEZES NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH COULD ACT TO HOLD THINGS UP...WHILE JUST
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE COMBINATION OF NEAR-CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE AN EFFICIENT
DROP. FEEL THAT A BLEND OF 12Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY THE
BEST COMPROMISE...AND THUS WILL LOWER MOST OF THE CWA 2-3 DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEEPING ALL BUT A FEW NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ABOVE FREEZING AND IN THE 33-37 RANGE. ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE
SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...AM NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE
WORTHY OF A FORMAL MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
FOR THE MONDAY DAYTIME PERIOD...TRANQUIL...MOISTURE-STARVED QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA MOVES WELL OFF EAST TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL
WAVE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER BRUSHES INTO WESTERN NEB
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE SUNNY WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SPLOTCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS...THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS COULD FEATURE A BIT GREATER INCOMING
CIRRUS COVERAGE MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH AXIS
ESSENTIALLY BISECTING THE AREA AT SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES OF
ONLY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL PREVAIL. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THANKS TO THE NEXT
IN A LONG STRETCH OF SEASONABLY WARM DAYS. MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AND IF ANYTHING NUDGED SOME PLACES UP
ANOTHER DEGREE...AIMING FOR LOW 60S NORTHEAST...MID 60S CENTRAL
INCLUDING TRI-CITIES...AND UPPER 60S KS ZONES. THE OVERALL BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE MONDAY GRIDS WAS TO DEWPOINTS...WHICH WERE LOWERED
4-7 DEGREES...WITH VALUES ONLY EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STILL
DROP NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 20S...KEEPING FIRE DANGER QUITE LOW
THANKS TO THE LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...STARTING 00Z TUESDAY. GUIDANCE FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...GEFS-MEAN AND EC ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION WHICH IS EXPECTED PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ALSO ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION...AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK ALONG
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PUSHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD
KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
PRESENT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FROPA
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN PRESENT SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR
15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. HIGH CIRRUS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WIND
SPEEDS TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 6Z TO 8Z...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 AM MST SUN NOV 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...JET FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
HEART OF NEW MEXICO...WITH CLINIC IN INERTIAL INSTABILITY ON IR
IMAGERY SHOWING COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
FLOW...WITH WARMER TOPS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE DISPLAY...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MODEST UPSTREAM...AS
DRY AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS EVAPORATING MUCH OF WHAT WOULD BE
FALLING BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
OVER WESTERN COLORADO WORKING WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND THIS MIGHT PERMIT SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS PENETRATION
DRIFTING OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING TOWARD
SUNRISE.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION
AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS STARTED. GOOD CONSENSUS HAS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT NEW GULF OF ALASKA CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATING SHORT WAVES AGAINST THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THESE WAVES PROPAGATING QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WAVE INTENSITY DIMINISHING SHARPLY BY
MONDAY MORNING...AS FLOW ALOFT RESETS TO ZONAL...AND BAGGY TROUGH
BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS GULF OF ALASKA CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS SHEAR TO THE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA...AND THROUGH NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WITH TROUGH EXITING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THANKSGIVING...WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE OVER NEW MEXICO...AND
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD OUT OF CHIHUAHUA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF IDAHO AND THE BITTERROOT RANGE OF WESTERN
MONTANA. RIDGE WILL START EASTWARD DRIFT ON SATURDAY WITH NEXT
TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE WEST COAST AND STARTING SLOW TREK EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS PART WAYS ON MONDAY...AS DOMESTIC GFS
BUILDS AMPLIFYING RIDGE NORTHWARD OVER THE EAST PACIFIC TO PLACE
NEW MEXICO IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF DIG AMPLIFYING AND MUSCULAR TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN U.S...PLACING NEW MEXICO IN INTENSIFYING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. WILL
CONCUR WITH HPC COLLEAGUES WHO POINT OUT GFS TENDENCY TO BE A
LITTLE TOO QUICK WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN...AND WILL LEAN THE
FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK TOWARD ECMWF FOR NOW.
FOR TODAY...BROAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS SHOVED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. BROAD SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FORM ROSWELL TO CLOVIS NEAR
THE LEA AND EDDY COUNTY LINES. UP NORTH...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY
DUST THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN PEAKS WITH SNOW NEAR THE COLORADO
LINE...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER SLOPES AND VALLEYS. DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY
WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. EASTERN PLAINS
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.
FOR MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE AS
NEXT WEST COAST SYSTEM WITH IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION DRIFTS OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL WORK AGAINST CLEARING SKIES
AND INCREASES IN SUNSHINE TO KEEP DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STEADY. SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AND
TAP AIR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
FOR TUESDAY...RIDGING OVER NEW MEXICO AS BIG BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA ATTEMPTS TO SHOVE SOME CLOUD AND MOISTURE OUT OF
CHIHUAHUA AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW IN COMING...AND MOST SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS IN RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURE TRENDS
REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE WARMING
IN THE WEST OFFSET BY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN THE EAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPANDING
NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 40 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFTING
FOCUS TO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HELPED BY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ZONAL FLOW BACK IN
PLAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND THE LAST OF THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE HEART
OF TEXAS...AND TEMPERATURES STEADY AND ABOVE NORMAL. SAME BASIC
STORY FOR FRIDAY. BAGGY TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
AND THE ADJACENT TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ON SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TO THE MEXICO BORDER
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE DISTRICT TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF NEW MEXICO WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ARE CO-LOCATED. AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NM EJECTS EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND BRING A GRADUAL END TO THE SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHER DEW POINT
LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE.... VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST NM WHERE BREEZY DOWN SLOPE WEST WINDS WIND WILL KEEP RH
RECOVERIES IN THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP UNSEASONABLY DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE
VIGOROUS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. IN ANY
EVENT...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS WETTER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS INTERSTATE 40 FOR WEDNESDAY.
AFTER GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...POOR VENTILATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER
FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HINTING AT A MAJOR WEATHER
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED.
33
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BOWING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHILE TOP DOWN MOISTENING TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY EMBEDDED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
RESULT...WHICH MAY OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 NEXT 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION...DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY RESULT IN ISOLD -RASN
OR EVEN A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE
NORTHWEST MTS AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MT OBSCURATION THRU 12Z
SUNDAY. 00Z NAM12 AND LATEST RUC INDICATE SOME LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY MAKE A RUN UP THE RGV POSSIBLY REACHING KABQ BY 12Z
SUNDAY...THEREFORE MORE WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATION POSSIBLE BUT CIGS
MAY REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 57 27 58 27 / 10 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 53 19 54 17 / 20 5 5 0
CUBA............................ 57 24 56 22 / 10 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 56 22 55 19 / 10 5 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 20 52 18 / 10 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 24 59 21 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 29 57 25 / 5 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 29 65 27 / 10 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 22 49 17 / 20 5 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 32 53 30 / 10 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 32 55 29 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 21 53 19 / 5 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 46 19 47 15 / 5 5 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 50 21 51 15 / 5 5 5 0
TAOS............................ 55 20 55 15 / 5 5 0 0
MORA............................ 56 28 56 25 / 5 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 61 26 60 25 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 32 55 28 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 28 57 27 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 35 59 33 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 37 60 35 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 34 62 31 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 34 61 32 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 29 62 26 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 34 60 32 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 68 34 67 31 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 33 58 31 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 61 33 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 61 24 60 21 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 31 58 30 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 34 60 31 / 10 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 35 65 30 / 20 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 58 37 60 35 / 20 5 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 60 31 59 29 / 5 5 5 0
RATON........................... 62 25 62 23 / 0 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 63 26 63 24 / 0 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 31 60 27 / 0 5 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 37 68 34 / 5 5 5 0
ROY............................. 64 33 63 31 / 0 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 69 34 69 30 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 69 37 69 32 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 37 70 30 / 5 5 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 39 69 34 / 20 5 5 0
PORTALES........................ 68 39 70 33 / 20 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 38 70 33 / 10 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 41 76 35 / 20 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 70 39 70 34 / 20 5 5 0
ELK............................. 66 41 66 36 / 30 5 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1047 PM MST SAT NOV 17 2012
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BOWING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHILE TOP DOWN MOISTENING TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY EMBEDDED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
RESULT...WHICH MAY OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 NEXT 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION...DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY RESULT IN ISOLD -RASN
OR EVEN A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE
NORTHWEST MTS AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS THRU 12Z
SUNDAY. 00Z NAM12 AND LATEST RUC INDICATE SOME LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY MAKE A RUN UP THE RGV POSSIBLY REACHING KABQ BY 12Z
SUNDAY...THEREFORE MORE WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATION POSSIBLE BUT CIGS
MAY REMAIN VFR.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE FIRST ONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND THE
SECOND ONE WED AND WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY AND NIGHT TO NIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. NO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATE BREEZES IN THE E SUN AND WED.
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING BAJA CA AND ANOTHER ONE OVER THE W COAST
WILL MOVE NE TON AND SUN. ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GET
DRAWN N INTO NM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TON INTO SUN...EXCEPT IN THE NE. DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVER THE SW ZONES WITH 30S AND 40S
DEWPOINTS ALREADY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
DRYING TREND FOR LATE SUN INTO MON WITH A CHILLY NIGHT SUN NIGHT
BUT A NICE MON PM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS MON BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE MON NIGHT THEN
SHIFT E TUE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY TUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A LOW FROM OFF BAJA CA TUE
TO SOUTHERN NM WED. THEY VARY ON THE EXTENT OF QPF...WITH THE
EUROPEAN THE WETTEST FOLLOWED BY THE GFS THEN A MOSTLY DRY
CANADIAN MODEL. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SC AND SE ZONES WED AND WED NIGHT.
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY LOOKING MIGHTY FINE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HUMIDITIES GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A BEAUTIFUL BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD MASS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY ISOLATED AND
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT CROSSES. A FEW POCKETS OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICOS MOUNTAINS. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN WITH THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM...AND A LEE TROUGH IN
THE EAST WILL CAUSE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY
THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL TREND
DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
NONETHELESS...READINGS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE WARMING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO EJECT FROM THE BAJA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
A MOIST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ENHANCE
MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM MAY
FIND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM...AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND AS
FAR NORTH AS THE MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TAP WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY WETTING
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE...
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTER GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...POOR VENTILATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE POOR
VENTILATION MAY BE COME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD...EXPANDING TO INCLUDE
THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. 44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
247 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
REST OF TONIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
MIDATLANTIC THIS EVENING... AND THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
STRONG (OVER 1038 MB) CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC... WHILE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA. CONVECTION WAS WIDESPREAD JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON... AND WHILE THE INTENSITY OF
THIS RAIN HAS DECREASED... IT REMAINS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SC AND
SRN NC COAST. THE 12Z 4-KM WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM DID A SUBPAR JOB IN
DEPICTING THIS RAIN... ALTHOUGH THE 18Z LOCAL WRF-ARW DID BETTER AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT... WHICH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN SHIELD HOLDING OVER AND JUST OFF THE SC COAST WITH JUST PATCHY
RAIN SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THIS ALSO
APPEARS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAIN... WHICH KEEPS CHANCES UNDER 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS AND MODEL AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT AND THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOWER STRATUS
AND SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSION AIR IS SPREADING WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NC... WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT IN
THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP (3000-4000 FT
THICK) SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER... BUT CLOSE EXAMINATION REVEALS A
VERY SHALLOW (FEW HUNDRED FEET) SLIGHTLY MIXED LAYER RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE... REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW THE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL BE STRENGTHENING AT ONCE. WILL KEEP
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS. THE LOW LEVEL STIRRING WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 38-48. -GIH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE NE FL/SRN GA COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A DEEP ELY FLOW INTO CENTRAL NC WITH SPEED CONFLUENCE NOTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT SUPPLIED
BY THIS CONFLUENCE WILL GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FARTHER WEST...LIFT WEAKER TO NON-EXISTENT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM LIKELY IN THE EAST TO LOW
END CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT A NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. MAX TEMPS LOW-MID 50S SUNDAY.MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 E-SE. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT:
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE NE
WITH RIDGING OVER NC AND SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. OFFSHORE LOW
BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE
AND RIDGING OVER NC. CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE NC COAST. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST FARTHER EAST...5 TO 10 KTS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID
40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A S/W AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STRONG VORTICITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STABILITY
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO PRECIP GENERATION WITH THE INITIAL S/W...AS THE 12Z ECMWF
GENERATES PRECIP WHILE THE 00Z GFS REMAINS DRY THROUGHOUT. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW IS THE
GREATEST. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
SKIES WILL START CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH (ECMWF) WILL
DEVELOP AND DIG INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR WHETHER THE PATTERN
ALOFT WILL REMAIN MORE ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER TROUGH
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY (GFS). PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DEPEND UPON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP
FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS LOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP...BUT
STAYING CONSISTENT WITH THE DRY FORECAST...ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL ZONE AND DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN BOTH THE EXPANSION OF 1000-2000 FT (MVFR)
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND BREEZY AND GUSTY NE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR RANGE...JUST
BELOW 1000 FT...FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AT KRWI/KRDU...BUT
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU...AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
LOOKING AHEAD: WHILE THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN BY MON...OWING
TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
CONSEQUENT RELAXATION OF THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WEAKENED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MAINTAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF MVFR RANGE CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
130 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
REST OF TONIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
MIDATLANTIC THIS EVENING... AND THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
STRONG (OVER 1038 MB) CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC... WHILE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA. CONVECTION WAS WIDESPREAD JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON... AND WHILE THE INTENSITY OF
THIS RAIN HAS DECREASED... IT REMAINS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SC AND
SRN NC COAST. THE 12Z 4-KM WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM DID A SUBPAR JOB IN
DEPICTING THIS RAIN... ALTHOUGH THE 18Z LOCAL WRF-ARW DID BETTER AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT... WHICH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN SHIELD HOLDING OVER AND JUST OFF THE SC COAST WITH JUST PATCHY
RAIN SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THIS ALSO
APPEARS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAIN... WHICH KEEPS CHANCES UNDER 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS AND MODEL AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT AND THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOWER STRATUS
AND SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSION AIR IS SPREADING WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NC... WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT IN
THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP (3000-4000 FT
THICK) SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER... BUT CLOSE EXAMINATION REVEALS A
VERY SHALLOW (FEW HUNDRED FEET) SLIGHTLY MIXED LAYER RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE... REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW THE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL BE STRENGTHENING AT ONCE. WILL KEEP
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS. THE LOW LEVEL STIRRING WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 38-48. -GIH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE NE FL/SRN GA COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A DEEP ELY FLOW INTO CENTRAL NC WITH SPEED CONFLUENCE NOTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT SUPPLIED
BY THIS CONFLUENCE WILL GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FARTHER WEST...LIFT WEAKER TO NON-EXISTENT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM LIKELY IN THE EAST TO LOW
END CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT A NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. MAX TEMPS LOW-MID 50S SUNDAY.MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 E-SE. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE MID LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE FL COAST WILL LIFT TO THE ENE. THIS MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE NELY. THUS...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DWINDLE MONDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF BY
AFTERNOON....AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE AMOUNT OF DECREASING CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR
WHICH LEADS TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMP GUIDANCE MONDAY. LATEST NAM
MORE EMPHATIC WITH ITS CLEARING TREND WHICH TRANSLATES TO WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPS. THE 12Z ECMWF WEAKEN OFFERS A SCENARIO SOMEWHAT BUT
NOT AS EMPHATIC WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING. GFS MAINTAINS A SATURATED
AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLACED A BIT MORE EMPHASIS TOT EH GFS
AS POTENTIAL EXIST FOR MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED BELOW MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THUS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
BRIEF S/W RIDING ALOFT AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A
PAIR OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES USHER IN A RETURN TO POSSIBLE
UNSETTLE WEATHER. HOWEVER... AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE EXPECT A GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE... WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OR SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
STRUGGLE THOUGH WRT POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND APPROACHING NEXT SET OF IMPULSES ALOFT.
FOR NOW WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
(CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND NAM). FOR NOW WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AREAWIDE. HOWEVER... STILL EXPECT SKIES WILL BE AT LEAST
MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL STILL HELP SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS DESPITE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND NORMAL. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60... A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER... IF THE RAIN
DOES MATERIALIZE EXPECTED TEMPS WOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AT LEAST THAN CURRENT FORECAST. LOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH SKIES
BEGINNING TO CLEAR AT BIT (MORE SO WEST) AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND S/W TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE DEEPENING
TROUGH... BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THUS... WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
NORMAL AND SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE DAY EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS WITH CLEARING SKIES
ON THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME... WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE EXPECT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON... BEFORE A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY... WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THURSDAY/FRIDAY TO UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 NEXT SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WITH POSSIBLE MID 30S IN THE USUAL RURAL COOL/COLDER AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL ZONE AND DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN BOTH THE EXPANSION OF 1000-2000 FT (MVFR)
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND BREEZY AND GUSTY NE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR RANGE...JUST
BELOW 1000 FT...FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AT KRWI/KRDU...BUT
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU...AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
LOOKING AHEAD: WHILE THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN BY MON...OWING
TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
CONSEQUENT RELAXATION OF THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WEAKENED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MAINTAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF MVFR RANGE CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
956 PM PST Sat Nov 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Through next week expect a progressive and wet weather pattern to
return with periods of mountain snow and valley rain this weekend
and through next week. Higher snow levels Sunday Night through
Tuesday morning will combine with the heaviest expected
precipitation in this forecast cycle to produce rises on the areas
small stream or creeks...especially for North Idaho. Windy
conditions will develop over portions of the Inland Northwest on
Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Areas of heavy rain...mountain snow...along with windy
conditions early next week....
Update...Radar imagery as of 945 pm indicated a large area of rain
associated with a cold front from Republic to Moses Lake eastward to
near the Washington/Idaho Border. The GFS/NAM/HRRR shows this area
of rain moving east through tonight with drier air and downslope
flow off the Cascades bringing a drying trend from west to east.
The HRRR which has a good handle on this area of rain shows the
back edge of the rain passing through Moses Lake around 10 pm,
Spokane 1 am, and Sandpoint 3 am. This matches the trends from the
NAM well so opted to update the forecast tonight to show these
trends in the NDFD grids. However some showers may linger over the
mountains of NE Washington and N Idaho Sunday morning after the
front passes due to the 850-700mb layer remaining nearly saturated
along with upslope flow.
No big changes noted on the 00z GFS run concerning the active
period expected for early next week with heavy mountain snow along
the East Slopes of the Cascades and Northern Mountains, windy
weather across portions of the area, along with heavy rain for
much of the Inland Northwest. See previous forecast discussion and
latest Weather Stories on our home page for more information. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Rain will persist through 08-11z over Eastern Washington
and North Idaho as a cold front tracks through the area. Expect
lowering cigs and vis into MVFR category with rain this evening.
Moist upslope flow over the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene taf sites behind
the front is expected to lower cigs into the IFR category through at
least the early morning hours on Sunday. We will see a break in the
precipitation Sunday morning with another round of rain crossing the
Cascades around 00z Monday as a warm front moves in. Good mixing
potential on Sunday afternoon may result in gusts up to 20-25 kts
for the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KMWH taf sites. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 45 38 42 40 46 / 100 50 100 100 100 80
Coeur d`Alene 37 45 36 42 40 46 / 100 50 90 100 100 80
Pullman 37 47 38 44 42 49 / 100 30 80 70 100 80
Lewiston 40 53 42 50 45 53 / 90 20 60 70 90 70
Colville 37 43 38 41 38 47 / 100 50 100 100 100 80
Sandpoint 37 44 35 41 38 44 / 100 80 90 100 100 100
Kellogg 37 41 34 39 39 44 / 100 80 60 100 100 100
Moses Lake 36 47 39 47 40 49 / 70 10 60 50 70 60
Wenatchee 37 45 38 44 39 47 / 40 20 90 50 70 60
Omak 35 42 37 42 39 45 / 100 30 100 100 70 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night
for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington
Palouse.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night
for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
828 PM PST Sat Nov 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Through next week expect a progressive and wet weather pattern to
return with periods of mountain snow and valley rain this weekend
and through next week. Higher snow levels Sunday Night through
Tuesday morning will combine with the heaviest expected
precipitation in this forecast cycle to produce rises on the areas
small stream or creeks...especially for North Idaho. Windy
conditions will develop over portions of the Inland Northwest on
Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Areas of heavy rain...mountain snow...along with windy
conditions early next week....
Update...Radar imagery as of 8 pm indicated a large area of rain
associated with a cold front from Omak to Moses Lake eastward to
near the Washington/Idaho Border. The GFS/NAM/HRRR shows this area
of rain moving east through tonight with drier air and downslope
flow off the Cascades bringing a drying trend from west to east.
The HRRR which has a good handle on this area of rain shows the
back edge of the rain passing through Moses Lake around 10 pm,
Spokane 1 am, and Sandpoint 3 am. This matches the trends from the
NAM well so opted to update the forecast tonight to show these
trends in the NDFD grids. However some showers may linger over the
mountains of NE Washington and N Idaho Sunday morning after the
front passes due to the 850-700mb layer remaining nearly saturated
along with upslope flow.
No big changes noted on the 00z GFS run concerning the active
period expected for early next week with heavy mountain snow along
the East Slopes of the Cascades and Northern Mountains, windy
weather across portions of the area, along with heavy rain for
much of the Inland Northwest. See previous forecast discussion and
latest Weather Stories on our home page for more information. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: A cold front is pushing into coastal Washington this evening.
Moist isentropic accent ahead of the front will result in light rain
at all taf sites this evening. Rainfall will diminish from west to
east late this evening into tonight as the front pushes east of the
region. Expect lowering cigs and vis into MVFR category with rain
this evening. Moist upslope flow over the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene taf
sites behind the front is expected to lower cigs into the IFR
category through at least the early morning hours on Sunday. We will
see a break in the precipitation Sunday morning with rain returning
Sunday afternoon as a warm front pushes in. Good mixing potential on
Sunday afternoon may result in a gusts up to 20-25 kts for the KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KMWH taf sites. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 45 38 42 40 46 / 100 50 100 100 100 80
Coeur d`Alene 37 45 36 42 40 46 / 100 50 90 100 100 80
Pullman 37 47 38 44 42 49 / 100 30 80 70 100 80
Lewiston 40 53 42 50 45 53 / 90 20 60 70 90 70
Colville 37 43 38 41 38 47 / 100 50 100 100 100 80
Sandpoint 37 44 35 41 38 44 / 100 80 90 100 100 100
Kellogg 37 41 34 39 39 44 / 100 80 60 100 100 100
Moses Lake 36 47 39 47 40 49 / 70 10 60 50 70 60
Wenatchee 37 45 38 44 39 47 / 40 20 90 50 70 60
Omak 35 42 37 42 39 45 / 100 30 100 100 70 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night
for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington
Palouse.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night
for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
510 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...
250 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THEN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE TWIN
CITIES TO CHARLES CITY IOWA AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD.
19.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FRONT THE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT LOOK TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SECOND WAVE DROPPING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. 19.12Z NAM/19.16Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THIS ALSO IN LINE
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES IN THE 19.09Z SREF. THUS AFTER SOME
CLEARING EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AFTER 09Z-12Z. DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STRATUS WILL BREAK UP TUESDAY MORNING..WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING
TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. 925MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 7 TO 9 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...TO 10 TO 13
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB-950MB...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WELL
ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR A LIST OF RECORDS). WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S.
ON THURSDAY...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE
PLAINS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. STILL
SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT THE COLDER
AIR LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT STREAMING INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 19.12Z GFS IS SHOWING 100 TO 150
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME AND DOES GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. DID KEEP THE LOWER END PROBABILITIES WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA..WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DID ADD LOWER END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTH FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW.
.LONG TERM...
250 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEASONAL TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS
BE ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. 19.12Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS FEATURE
WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS FLOW MORE ZONAL.
IF THE ECMWF DOES VERIFY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR PERIODS
BEYOND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
510 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE SHORTWAVE
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT IT DID SERVE TO HELP ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE
NEAR SFC LAYER. IN ADDITION...RAP13/NAM12 925 MB RH FIELDS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AS SHOWN BY THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ALREADY
INDICATE SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN AREA
OF CLOUDS...OVER NORTHEAST IA WITH 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS. TRAJECTORY AND
MODEL TRENDS WOULD FAVOR THESE CONDITIONS AT KLSE MORE THAN KRST.
WILL CONTINUE PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOR KLSE...WITH PERHAPS A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KRST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR LATE MORNING WITH THE
EXITING OF A SFC FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE A LOFT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
200 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY/21ST AND THURSDAY/22ND. COOP
SITES ARE 6AM-6AM HIGHS...THUS 22ND HIGHS ARE 21.12Z TO 22.12Z. LA
CROSSE AND ROCHESTER ARE ONLY NON-COOP SITES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SOME OF THE RECORDS BELOW MAY
BE TIED OR BROKEN.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY/21ST THURSDAY/22ND
LA CROSSE WI 72/1990 59/1963
SPARTA WI 65/1990 70/1990
MEDFORD WI 59/1913 65/1990
LANCASTER WI 66/2003 66/1898
MAUSTON WI 67/2003 66/1990
ROCHESTER MN 69/1990 65/1913
AUSTIN MN 70/1990 58/1966
WINONA DAM 5A MN 60/2003 60/2001
WABASHA MN 61/1908 59/1908
CHARLES CITY IA 71/1990 62/1966
OELWEIN IA 71/1990 62/1966
DECORAH IA 71/1990 62/1908
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
250 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......JONES/DB/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1121 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITHIN
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER AND IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS LATTER
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG
THIS ZONE IS A BAND OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 6000-9000 FT.
THE BAND OF STRATUS ALSO SEPARATES MOIST AIR FROM VERY DRY AIR AT
850MB. FOR EXAMPLE...FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS...THE 850MB DEWPOINT AT DVN
WAS -20C WHILE IT WAS -2C AT MPX AND 1C AT OAX. THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. 850MB TEMPS WERE +6C AT MPX AND OAX AT 00Z. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS FAIRLY STRONG WITH 925MB PROFILER AND VWP DATA
SHOWING SPEEDS OF 35-45KT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WINDS ARE
HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOCUS IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS ON THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS UP SOMEWHAT. WITH THE RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WARM START...SUNSHINE AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 6C WHICH ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE 850MB MOISTURE
STREAM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL GET PUSHED
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
IF DPVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE AND PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. MID CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS A CERTAINTY...GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST EVENING ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE STREAM. THE 18.00Z
NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN PAINT A DRY PICTURE AND EVEN THE GFS WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH MOISTURE COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MODELS
PRODUCES LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 12Z. THE 17.12Z ECMWF
MEANWHILE REMAINS MOST ROBUST WITH 0.1-0.2 OF AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. NEW 18.00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY DRIER. SREF
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN LESS MEMBERS PRODUCING 0.01 OF AN INCH OVER THE
LAST 5 RUNS...DOWN FROM 40-50 PERCENT TO 10-30 PERCENT. AT THIS
POINT...CANNOT SEE GOING WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION AND
HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...CENTERED IN THE
09-12Z PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
BEING MAINTAINED...A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 12Z LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP TROUGHING
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE WILL COME
THROUGH DRY SINCE THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ENDS
UP SCOURING OUT A LOT OF THE MOISTURE. THUS ALL FOCUS IS ON THE
MONDAY MORNING PERIOD. AGAIN HERE...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH FORCING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE 18.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN SAYS
THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW 800MB AND THE FORCING IS TOO WEAK
ABOVE IT TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE 18.00Z GFS AND 17.12Z/18.00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
ROBUST IN BOTH ARENAS AND END UP PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SREF TRENDS FOR THE FULL DAY MONDAY ARE ALSO SIMILAR TO
06-12Z MONDAY...SHOWING A DECLINE OF MEMBERS PRODUCING AT LEAST 0.01
OF AN INCH. IT USED TO BE UP AT 70-80 PERCENT BUT NOW IS DOWN TO
30-60 PERCENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADJUST THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 20-40 PERCENT. CERTAINLY
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS...ANY RAIN LOOKS REALLY LIGHT. REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT AS IT MOVES AWAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF CIRRUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NOTE THAT THERE IS
CONCERN FOR A LOW CLOUD DECK BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF 925MB RH
PROGS...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO MOIST. FOR NOW TAKING A COMPROMISE
APPROACH BY SPEEDING UP THE CLEARING SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVING MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOLER NIGHT SEEMS
LIKELY TOO FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLEARING OCCURS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...SOME FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING
IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABOUT
ALL THAT SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO DO IS PREVENT THE 850MB TEMP
CLIMB...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z TUESDAY OF 5-7C. ONCE THE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN...THESE TEMPS CLIMB...TOPPING OUT AT 8C
EAST TO 11C WEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH WHAT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AGAIN ON TUESDAY
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CROSSES THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS
POTENT TROUGH BEGINS TO DECLINE AS EARLY AS 12Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
18.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOWING A DIGGING NATURE TO IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS TAKES A MORE PROGRESSIVE
APPROACH AND SENDS IT UP INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY FLIPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS POTENT TROUGH. THE 18.00Z ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
17.00Z GFS WHILE THE 18.00Z GFS LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 16.12Z ECMWF.
THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND
FORECASTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. WITH THE MORE DIGGING
NATURE OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...THEY END UP CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH WITHIN
THIS GROUP THE CANADIAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. WHICHEVER MODEL
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THE RULE WITH
THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE EITHER NORTH OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...HARD TO SAY HOW THE WEEKEND WILL PLAY ITSELF OUT. NOTE THAT
THE 18.00Z GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SPREAD TOO WITH REGARDS
TO THE POTENT TROUGH. THUS FOR NOW HAVE STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS
APPROACH WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEEKEND...YIELDING COOLER AND A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY STILL LOOK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
10-12C FOR 18Z. MIXING TO 925MB YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S...THUS HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. RECORD HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE 72 AT LA CROSSE AND 69 AT ROCHESTER...STILL 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE THE GOING FORECAST. NOTE THAT 850MB TEMP
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES HAVE NOW JUMPED TO NEAR 2...SUPPORTING THE
INCREASING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOME COOLING IN 925MB TEMPS
TAKES PLACE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. STILL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TOP OUT AT LEAST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN 60 AT SOME SOUTH OF I-90. RECORD HIGH
FOR THURSDAY IS 59 AT LA CROSSE AND 65 AT ROCHESTER...THUS LA
CROSSE MAY BE DOABLE TO BREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IF THE 18.00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE COULD EVEN BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1121 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND THEN PRODUCE SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TOWARD MORNING. EXPECTING SCATTERED -SHRA TO REMAIN EAST
OF KRST BUT DID INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION AT KLSE AFTER 11Z SINCE
THIS IS WHERE BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL EXIST.
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOA 4500 FT AGL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
559 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITHIN
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER AND IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS LATTER
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG
THIS ZONE IS A BAND OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 6000-9000 FT.
THE BAND OF STRATUS ALSO SEPARATES MOIST AIR FROM VERY DRY AIR AT
850MB. FOR EXAMPLE...FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS...THE 850MB DEWPOINT AT DVN
WAS -20C WHILE IT WAS -2C AT MPX AND 1C AT OAX. THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. 850MB TEMPS WERE +6C AT MPX AND OAX AT 00Z. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS FAIRLY STRONG WITH 925MB PROFILER AND VWP DATA
SHOWING SPEEDS OF 35-45KT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WINDS ARE
HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOCUS IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS ON THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS UP SOMEWHAT. WITH THE RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WARM START...SUNSHINE AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 6C WHICH ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE 850MB MOISTURE
STREAM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL GET PUSHED
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
IF DPVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE AND PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. MID CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS A CERTAINTY...GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST EVENING ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE STREAM. THE 18.00Z
NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN PAINT A DRY PICTURE AND EVEN THE GFS WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH MOISTURE COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MODELS
PRODUCES LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 12Z. THE 17.12Z ECMWF
MEANWHILE REMAINS MOST ROBUST WITH 0.1-0.2 OF AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. NEW 18.00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY DRIER. SREF
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN LESS MEMBERS PRODUCING 0.01 OF AN INCH OVER THE
LAST 5 RUNS...DOWN FROM 40-50 PERCENT TO 10-30 PERCENT. AT THIS
POINT...CANNOT SEE GOING WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION AND
HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...CENTERED IN THE
09-12Z PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
BEING MAINTAINED...A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 12Z LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP TROUGHING
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE WILL COME
THROUGH DRY SINCE THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ENDS
UP SCOURING OUT A LOT OF THE MOISTURE. THUS ALL FOCUS IS ON THE
MONDAY MORNING PERIOD. AGAIN HERE...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH FORCING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE 18.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN SAYS
THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW 800MB AND THE FORCING IS TOO WEAK
ABOVE IT TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE 18.00Z GFS AND 17.12Z/18.00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
ROBUST IN BOTH ARENAS AND END UP PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SREF TRENDS FOR THE FULL DAY MONDAY ARE ALSO SIMILAR TO
06-12Z MONDAY...SHOWING A DECLINE OF MEMBERS PRODUCING AT LEAST 0.01
OF AN INCH. IT USED TO BE UP AT 70-80 PERCENT BUT NOW IS DOWN TO
30-60 PERCENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADJUST THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 20-40 PERCENT. CERTAINLY
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS...ANY RAIN LOOKS REALLY LIGHT. REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT AS IT MOVES AWAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF CIRRUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NOTE THAT THERE IS
CONCERN FOR A LOW CLOUD DECK BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF 925MB RH
PROGS...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO MOIST. FOR NOW TAKING A COMPROMISE
APPROACH BY SPEEDING UP THE CLEARING SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVING MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOLER NIGHT SEEMS
LIKELY TOO FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLEARING OCCURS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...SOME FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING
IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABOUT
ALL THAT SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO DO IS PREVENT THE 850MB TEMP
CLIMB...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z TUESDAY OF 5-7C. ONCE THE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN...THESE TEMPS CLIMB...TOPPING OUT AT 8C
EAST TO 11C WEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH WHAT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AGAIN ON TUESDAY
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CROSSES THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS
POTENT TROUGH BEGINS TO DECLINE AS EARLY AS 12Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
18.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOWING A DIGGING NATURE TO IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS TAKES A MORE PROGRESSIVE
APPROACH AND SENDS IT UP INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY FLIPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS POTENT TROUGH. THE 18.00Z ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
17.00Z GFS WHILE THE 18.00Z GFS LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 16.12Z ECMWF.
THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND
FORECASTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. WITH THE MORE DIGGING
NATURE OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...THEY END UP CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH WITHIN
THIS GROUP THE CANADIAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. WHICHEVER MODEL
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THE RULE WITH
THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE EITHER NORTH OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...HARD TO SAY HOW THE WEEKEND WILL PLAY ITSELF OUT. NOTE THAT
THE 18.00Z GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SPREAD TOO WITH REGARDS
TO THE POTENT TROUGH. THUS FOR NOW HAVE STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS
APPROACH WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEEKEND...YIELDING COOLER AND A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY STILL LOOK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
10-12C FOR 18Z. MIXING TO 925MB YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S...THUS HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. RECORD HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE 72 AT LA CROSSE AND 69 AT ROCHESTER...STILL 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE THE GOING FORECAST. NOTE THAT 850MB TEMP
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES HAVE NOW JUMPED TO NEAR 2...SUPPORTING THE
INCREASING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOME COOLING IN 925MB TEMPS
TAKES PLACE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. STILL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TOP OUT AT LEAST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN 60 AT SOME SOUTH OF I-90. RECORD HIGH
FOR THURSDAY IS 59 AT LA CROSSE AND 65 AT ROCHESTER...THUS LA
CROSSE MAY BE DOABLE TO BREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IF THE 18.00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE COULD EVEN BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
557 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
AFTER 19.06Z TONIGHT. SINCE THEIR COVERAGE IS VERY SMALL...DID NOT
INCLUDE THEM AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITHIN
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER AND IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS LATTER
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG
THIS ZONE IS A BAND OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 6000-9000 FT.
THE BAND OF STRATUS ALSO SEPARATES MOIST AIR FROM VERY DRY AIR AT
850MB. FOR EXAMPLE...FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS...THE 850MB DEWPOINT AT DVN
WAS -20C WHILE IT WAS -2C AT MPX AND 1C AT OAX. THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. 850MB TEMPS WERE +6C AT MPX AND OAX AT 00Z. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS FAIRLY STRONG WITH 925MB PROFILER AND VWP DATA
SHOWING SPEEDS OF 35-45KT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WINDS ARE
HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOCUS IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS ON THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS UP SOMEWHAT. WITH THE RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WARM START...SUNSHINE AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 6C WHICH ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE 850MB MOISTURE
STREAM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL GET PUSHED
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
IF DPVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE AND PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. MID CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS A CERTAINTY...GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST EVENING ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE STREAM. THE 18.00Z
NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN PAINT A DRY PICTURE AND EVEN THE GFS WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH MOISTURE COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MODELS
PRODUCES LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 12Z. THE 17.12Z ECMWF
MEANWHILE REMAINS MOST ROBUST WITH 0.1-0.2 OF AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. NEW 18.00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY DRIER. SREF
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN LESS MEMBERS PRODUCING 0.01 OF AN INCH OVER THE
LAST 5 RUNS...DOWN FROM 40-50 PERCENT TO 10-30 PERCENT. AT THIS
POINT...CANNOT SEE GOING WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION AND
HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...CENTERED IN THE
09-12Z PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
BEING MAINTAINED...A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 12Z LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP TROUGHING
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE WILL COME
THROUGH DRY SINCE THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ENDS
UP SCOURING OUT A LOT OF THE MOISTURE. THUS ALL FOCUS IS ON THE
MONDAY MORNING PERIOD. AGAIN HERE...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH FORCING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE 18.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN SAYS
THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW 800MB AND THE FORCING IS TOO WEAK
ABOVE IT TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE 18.00Z GFS AND 17.12Z/18.00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
ROBUST IN BOTH ARENAS AND END UP PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SREF TRENDS FOR THE FULL DAY MONDAY ARE ALSO SIMILAR TO
06-12Z MONDAY...SHOWING A DECLINE OF MEMBERS PRODUCING AT LEAST 0.01
OF AN INCH. IT USED TO BE UP AT 70-80 PERCENT BUT NOW IS DOWN TO
30-60 PERCENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADJUST THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 20-40 PERCENT. CERTAINLY
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS...ANY RAIN LOOKS REALLY LIGHT. REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT AS IT MOVES AWAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF CIRRUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NOTE THAT THERE IS
CONCERN FOR A LOW CLOUD DECK BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF 925MB RH
PROGS...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO MOIST. FOR NOW TAKING A COMPROMISE
APPROACH BY SPEEDING UP THE CLEARING SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVING MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOLER NIGHT SEEMS
LIKELY TOO FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLEARING OCCURS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...SOME FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING
IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABOUT
ALL THAT SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO DO IS PREVENT THE 850MB TEMP
CLIMB...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z TUESDAY OF 5-7C. ONCE THE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN...THESE TEMPS CLIMB...TOPPING OUT AT 8C
EAST TO 11C WEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH WHAT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AGAIN ON TUESDAY
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CROSSES THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS
POTENT TROUGH BEGINS TO DECLINE AS EARLY AS 12Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
18.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOWING A DIGGING NATURE TO IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS TAKES A MORE PROGRESSIVE
APPROACH AND SENDS IT UP INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY FLIPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS POTENT TROUGH. THE 18.00Z ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
17.00Z GFS WHILE THE 18.00Z GFS LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 16.12Z ECMWF.
THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND
FORECASTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. WITH THE MORE DIGGING
NATURE OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...THEY END UP CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH WITHIN
THIS GROUP THE CANADIAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. WHICHEVER MODEL
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THE RULE WITH
THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE EITHER NORTH OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...HARD TO SAY HOW THE WEEKEND WILL PLAY ITSELF OUT. NOTE THAT
THE 18.00Z GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SPREAD TOO WITH REGARDS
TO THE POTENT TROUGH. THUS FOR NOW HAVE STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS
APPROACH WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEEKEND...YIELDING COOLER AND A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY STILL LOOK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
10-12C FOR 18Z. MIXING TO 925MB YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S...THUS HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. RECORD HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE 72 AT LA CROSSE AND 69 AT ROCHESTER...STILL 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE THE GOING FORECAST. NOTE THAT 850MB TEMP
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES HAVE NOW JUMPED TO NEAR 2...SUPPORTING THE
INCREASING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOME COOLING IN 925MB TEMPS
TAKES PLACE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. STILL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TOP OUT AT LEAST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN 60 AT SOME SOUTH OF I-90. RECORD HIGH
FOR THURSDAY IS 59 AT LA CROSSE AND 65 AT ROCHESTER...THUS LA
CROSSE MAY BE DOABLE TO BREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IF THE 18.00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE COULD EVEN BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
1115 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. CIGS
WERE MOSTLY 6-10 10 KFT...AND EXPECT THEM TO CLEAR AROUND 15Z OR
SO SUN WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE. MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES COMING AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS...AND SUN AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SAT
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MIXING TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON GUSTINESS...CLOSE TO
25 KTS AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
212 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
358 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A
LARGE OCEANIC STORM MEANDERS WELL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR
TODAY. CIRRUS BEING ENHANCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 115 KT
JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS DROPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHWEST OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA BY SUNRISE.
975MB RUC MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW
THE SKY COVER FORECAST WILL PLAY OUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
LATER SHIFTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY HAVE TO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...
WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR A BIT
WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. MORE RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
DIGS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...THUS SHUNTING THE SUBTROPICAL JET FAR
TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CALM/LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL YIELD IMPROVING RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE
UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
EAST COAST STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
DAY. WHILE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW FAR OUT TO SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE LAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ITS
WAKE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL...AS DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST...AND THEN FALL TO EVEN COOLER LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40S MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE REGION...SUGGESTING THE FEATURE
WILL LACK A DECENT TAP INTO MOISTURE. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION
AND WINDS BRIEFLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
TREND EVEN COOLER IN THE LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY
WITHIN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT TIMING
AND IMPACTS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WILL THUS MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT NOW APPEARS LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND
THE PEE DEE WILL REACH KCHS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10-11Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIOD OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. WHILE A
BRIEF STINT TO HIGH-END IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE THE TERMINAL/S ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. STILL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH THESE CLOUDS REMAINING TO THE NORTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THE MARINE AREA WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. SEAS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE MORNING SO FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED
BY A FEW HOURS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINING NEARSHORE LEGS.
SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN FORCE THERE.
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER 15-20 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 10-15
KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT NEARSHORE
WATERS TO 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ENHANCED
OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS. HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...LONG
PERIOD SWELLS AND COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER ALL
WATERS LATE WEEK...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
339 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z. FOG WILL ERODE AWAY FROM THE
WEST...BUT ONLY SLOW PROGRESS IS EXPECTED. HRRR IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING ONTO THE FOG AND DO NOT EXPECTED IT TO LAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT IS INDICATING. A COOLER START THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AS WELL.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED. UNDER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NOVEMBER. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING FORECAST...WITH
WARMEST DAY WEDNESDAY AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND CONDITIONS LOOK RIGHT FOR GOOD MIXING. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES POP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GOING IN LOCATIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY IF MIXING IS MAXIMIZED AS 85MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 14C
ACROSS THE WEST.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE HEAD OF BOUNDARY...WITH NAM AND ECMWF MUCH
LESS SO. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LARGE
COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH...AND
COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM AS BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA.
THE END OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS BUILD IN A
WEAK RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ABLE TO WARM
NICELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO HAVE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSH ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING DOWN WEAK RIDGING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...20/06Z
HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE LOWER VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LAST AND IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE VSBY AS
TEMPS WARM AND FALL DUE TO FOG FORMATION. WEAK BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE OVER EAST BY 12Z AS EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL FOCUS THE
FOG IN THIS LOCATION. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES NOT MUCH
EXPECTED AT KDSM AND KFOD...BUT KALO...KOTM...AND KMCW LIFR TO IFR
VSBY AND CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES UNTIL THE FOG LIFTS AFT
14-15Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BECOME BENIGN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BREMER-BUTLER-DAVIS-GRUNDY-JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-
TAMA-WAPELLO.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 12
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT VFR
CIGS BASED AROUND 35HND FEET REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM JUST WEST
OF KDBQ TO JUST WEST OF KMLI THROUGH KGBG. MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER EAST AND THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESS SLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY.
TO THE WEST CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR A WEAK FRONT JUST
MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA HAVE CREATED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG. DENSE FOG WITH LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LOOK REASONABLE AT KCID
AND PROBABLY KBRL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD KEEP THE DENSE FOG OUT OF KDBQ AND KMLI.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES AROUND 18Z TUESDAY.
DLF
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT 850MB A MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE UP INTO CENTRAL IOWA. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOW A CONTINUED DECREASE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE OVERALL FORCING
WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CLEARING AND WERE NOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A VERY WEAK LOW ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER EAST OF
KAMA WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S IN A BROAD MOISTURE PLUME
FROM TEXAS INTO IOWA WITH 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE ONLY EXPLANATION FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWFA SINCE LATE MORNING IS CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROF. THIS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON SO THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHRA TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IN THE EASTERN CWFA.
GOING ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT...THE
OVERALL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY BREAK UP IN THE WESTERN CWFA. IN THE
EASTERN CWFA LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE RAP TRENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE DISTURBING. THE CONVERGENT FLOW IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN AND THE RAP IS INDICATING THAT A WEAK LOW
WILL MOVE ALONG THE TROF INTO THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RE-DEVELOP OR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CLEAR AREAS. THUS WILL
ADD AREAS OF FOG IN THE WESTERN CWFA AND PATCHY FOG EAST WHERE THE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER.
I CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEADLINE FOR THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOW THE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOP/EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE KEY. IF ONE HAD TO ASSIGN A
PROBABILITY IT IS CURRENTLY 1 IN 5 OR 1 IN 4 REGARDING A HEADLINE.
ASSUMING THAT LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THEY WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RATE OF
CLEARING ON TUESDAY IS A CONCERN GIVEN THE WEAK SUN. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET
TUESDAY. IF THAT OCCURS...THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
ARE TOO WARM. ..08..
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING STILL ON
TRACK TO GET PRESSED ACRS THE REGION THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR OUT OF CLOUDS WILL
MAKE FOR A COOLER NIGHT TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S.
DEPENDING ON TUE AFTERNOON CLOUD CLEAR OUT...THE LATER THE CLEARING
TREND AND THUS REDUCING THE SFC MIX OUT DRYING...TUE NIGHT MAY BE AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL FOG SET UP ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR.
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR NOW BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS FOR WED...TEMPORARY OMEGA BLOCK OVER
STRENGTHENING WARMING LLVL RETURN FLOW STILL APPEAR ON TAP. EXTENT OF
AVERAGED LLVL THERMAL DRAW BY THE MAJORITY OF THE NEW 12Z RUN MODELS
AND MIXING UP INTO BASE ON BUILDING WARM WEDGE ALOFT SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO THE MID
60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSEASONABLY MILD WED NIGHT AND IF SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS CAN MAINTAIN AT 5-10 KTS...MANY AREAL TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID-UPPER 40S. BUT MAY PLAY IT COOLER IN CASE
OF ANY SFC WIND DECREASE EVEN IF TEMPORARY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... INCOMING PACIFIC NW WAVE ENERGY/DEVELOPING
CYCLONE ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROJECTED
BY LATER RUNS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DVN CWA THU EVENING. ACTUAL FROPA
OCCURRING ACRS THE MS RVR FROM THE WEST PROGGED BY ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW
LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z FRI...THUS THE BULK OF THU
THE DVN CWA TO BE IN BREEZY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STOUT INVERSION
ALOFT AND INCREASE IN LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS COULD BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PREVENT A RECORD MILD THANKSGIVING. IF IT WERE
NOT FOR THOSE FACTORS...SOME AREAS WOULD HIT 70 OR HIGHER. BUT
WILL WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE LOW TO MID 60S. STRENGTH OF LLVL FRONT
ITSELF AND MID-UPPER LOW ROLLING ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FROPA PROCESS. BUT IF LATER RUNS TREND
WETTER...SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AN POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT ALL DEPENDS ON ANY BUILD UP OF
INSTABILITY IF IT CAN AS THU PROGRESSES. DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
TIMING...LATE NIGHT SWITCH OVER TO LLVL COLD CONVEYOR COULD PLUNGE
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. FRIDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A MUCH COLDER BLUSTERY DAY IN
SUBSIDING DRY SLOT OFF GRT LKS CYCLONE...WITH HIGHS HAVING TROUBLE
GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST
OVER 30 MPH. WRAP AROUND SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ACRS SOUTHERN WI. IF SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES FRI NIGHT...LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO
EVEN UPPER TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A QUICK RETURN TO PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLIES/ FLATTENED FLOW PATTERN ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS...THUS DRY
AND THERMALLY MODERATING WX INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS BY
SUNDAY BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH SOME RETURN FLOW MIXING
AND INSOLATION. AS FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST ENOUGH WAVE ENERGY/UPPER JET INFLUX DIGGING
INTO THE WEST FOR AN EVENTUAL L/W TROF COMPLEX ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ROCKIES AND GRT BSN. MANY COMPLEX PHASING ISSUES TO BE RESOLVED THAT
FAR OUT...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL OF A LOADED SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ACRS THE WESTERN TO MID CONUS WITH COLD AIR TRYING TO DUMP DOWN THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STREAMS UP
NORTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE L/W TROF...COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
INTERESTING MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. STAY TUNED. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS WITH A LARGE TROUGH JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY AND SW FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH WAA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ON WED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION REGARDING POSSIBLE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADA
US BORDER ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER LESS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN TROUGH
WILL KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MET WITH BL WINDS 27-29KT AND H85 WINDS AROUND 40KT. ITS
STILL TOO EARLY FOR AN NPW...HOWEVER I DID INCREASE WINDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING. BEYOND FORCING IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONT THE BEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE AIR MASS ALSO
REMAINS VERY DRY ACROSS CWA...SO IM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP.
WITH FROPA DURING THE DAY HIGH TEMPS THU ARE TRICKY...HOWEVER THEY
STILL SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GRADIENT OF UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
AT LEAST EARLY ON MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. COOLEST DAY WILL BE ON FRIDAY WITH MODERATION FOR
SATURDAY. THEN CHANGES AND INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN AFTER THAT. NEWER
MODEL DATA...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND OLDER CANADIAN WAS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION THE MODEL DATA BRINGS IN NOT JUST ONE
SHORTWAVE BUT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
THIS NEWER DATA IS FITTING THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS
SEASON AND IN FACT THIS YEAR. THE TROUGH DOES NOT COME THROUGH IN
ONE NICE ORGANIZED SYSTEM BUT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
SOLUTION AS WELL. THESE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES HAVE TENDED TO SCOUR OUT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT THE MODELS THINK IS THERE. BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS THE CASE HERE AS WELL. PLUS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH RATHER
EARLY AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS A GREAT DISTANCE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE INVOLVED AS WELL. AS A RESULT OF
ALL THIS AND COLLABORATION...KEPT THE SMALL AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE INIT GAVE ME AND REDUCED THE CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF WAS NOT AS COLD AS THE FRIGID GFS. THE ECMWF
TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND ALSO MATCHED UP WELL WITH
THE CRH_INIT SO LEFT THE TEMPERATURES ALONE AS RESULT OF THAT AND
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 429 PM MST MON NOV 19 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AFTER 06Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT. WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RFW
CRITERIA. FOR NOW I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL MEET THE 3HR
REQUIREMENT...NO RFW PLANNED FOR NOW.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON WHEN RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO LEOTI KS. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE LIGHTER IN THE WEST...WITH STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY
WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF RFW CRITERIA OTHER THAN A NARROW CORRIDOR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WHERE THERE COULD SEE A CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND. THIS
IS GOING TO BE CLOSE...SO ITS WORTH MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1131 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
ALTHOUGH NOT REGISTERED THROUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE KVWX
RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING ENOUGH 20+ DBZ RETURNS AT 0.5 DEGREE
ELEVATION TO WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH THIS IN MIND AND WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE...ADDED A SMALL
POP/WEATHER CHANCE MAINLY OVER THE WEST KENTUCKY PENNYRILE THROUGH
05Z /11 PM CST/.
UPPER AIR CHARTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF MINOR WAVES ROTATING
INTO THE BROAD TROUGH WITH THE BASE WEST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE FLUCTUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...ADJUSTED THE NET OPAQUE CLOUD COVER TO MOVE THE CLOUDS
WITH THE MEAN FLOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT
SCENARIO...HAD TO INCREASE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3-4
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PERSIST
FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT AS AN AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD HELP BUOY TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
CLOUDS AND WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SEMO WHICH
IS HELPING TO DRY UP ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT FROM THIS MORNING. MAY
HAVE HAD A FEW SPRINKLES OVER RIPLEY AND CARTER COUNTIES...BUT THAT
WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS HAVE AFFECTED TEMPERATURES WITH SEMO
REMAINING AROUND 60.
THIS CLOUD BANK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
AS THE LOWEST 5K FT REMAIN DRY.
A SHORTWAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HANG ON THERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DRIER AIR MOVING MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND SOME FOG POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
WE WILL START OUT ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD...THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER...THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF IN MOVING THE
RIDGE EAST AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY
00Z FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF STILL HAS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA WITH
THE IMPENDING SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT SAME TIME WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN FRINGES.
THE GFS HAS SPENT SEVERAL RUNS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL SEE ANY PRECIP PRIOR TO 00Z
FRIDAY...BUT CONSENSUS SAYS THAT THINGS WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY. IN
FACT...THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF KEEPS US DRY THROUGH 06Z AND THIS MODEL HAS
BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON THAT FOR A WHILE NOW TOO...WHETHER TO START
PRECIP ON THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE GFS INDICATE RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON THANKSGIVING...MOVING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS
HAS HAD A PROBLEM OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...FIGURING OUT HOW LONG THE
PRECIP WAS GOING TO LINGER ON FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW...THE 12Z GFS INDICATE THAT FRIDAY MORNING MIGHT END UP
BEING DRY. THE SLOWER 00Z/12Z ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO RAIN CHANCES
THOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. THINK THE GOING FORECAST RESEMBLES A GOOD BLEND OF SEVERAL
DAYS OF MODEL RUNS AND IS A GOOD COMPROMISE TO ALL OF THOSE RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. THE BOTTOM LINE: CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMTS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT AT THIS POINT...AND GFS ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
ON FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES...AND
BRING A NICE POCKET OF COLD AIR WITH IT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DEEPER WITH THIS TROUGH
AND HENCE BRINGS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...IT IS A
PRETTY POTENT POCKET OF COLD AIR...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING H850 TEMPS
AROUND -11C DEG ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE 12Z GFS HAS LOCKED INTO SOMETHING NOW SINCE IT TOO BRINGS COLDER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH. IT IS NOT QUITE LIKE THE ECMWF BUT AT LEAST IT IS
CLOSER. PLUS THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE COLDER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE A DROP IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...SO WILL LOWER HIGHS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FROM
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO THIS WEEK AND COULD END UP BEING 10 DEG
COLDER THAN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS GIVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S.
THERE IS NOW QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE HIGH MOVING
EAST AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
IN EARNEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS DEVELOPING TO OUR S/SW...WHICH
ENDS UP CAUSING SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOW TO MOVE THE
SFC HIGH EAST BUT FINALLY DOES SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE OVER AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT WHAT DOES SEEM PROBABLE AT THIS POINT IS
SEEING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE RUNS ON THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN IN THE 4-6KFT LAYER ACROSS ALL
SITES BY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS LITTLE MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT AND A WEAK ONE AT THAT...SO IT WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO THE TAFS. WILL SHOW A SHIFT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES FROM 21Z-23Z...BUT THIS TIMING COULD
BE EARLIER OR LATER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CEILINGS DROPPING
JUST INTO MVFR TERRITORY NEAR THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW DO NOT SEE
ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO INSERT IT IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES WARM TEMPS
AND THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY
AND NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THUS USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MID WEEK.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE AND DEPTH OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING AND ITS EVOLUTION TODAY. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS WIDE AREA OF
FOG OVER THE MN PINES AND LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY ADVECTS IT TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OVER THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD DRASTICALLY LOWER FORECASTED HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH HRRR DID
INITIALIZE WITH MORE FOG AT 08Z THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SFC
OBS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE LESS DENSE AND ABLE TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AND ALLOW GOOD SOLAR SOME WAA ON SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH TO ALLOW HI
TEMPS TO REACH MID 40S.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPS UP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE WARM
LOWS WILL BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S SOUTH...
NEAR THE RECORD OF 58 AT FARGO... TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE SNOW LINE
AS 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 10C IN THE NORTH TO 14 C IN THE SOUTH.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT CHC
OF RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE
COLUMN COOLS. TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION ON THE NW WINDS. A MIXED PCPN TYPE IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL STARTS TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
00Z FRI ALL PCPN WILL BE FROZEN WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE N RRV
AND INTO NW MN AS THE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG TO BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT 850MB THURSDAY NIGHT
COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW COULD TRAVEL DIFFICULT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND TRAVEL PLANS
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TRENDS BUT A BIT DIFFERENT WITH DETAILS. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM/COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS WITH THE FROPA AND
THEN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FEATURE (WITH NOT
MUCH SNOWFALL).
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING PATCHY TO DENSE FOG FORMATION AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT FAR...TVF AND BJI. DVL ALREADY SEEING S
WINDS AND SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR. GFK JUST WEST OF THE FOG FOR
NOW...IF IT EXPANDS...A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN THE NEXT 6 HR...GFK
TO SEE IFR. IFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO MVFR IN LATE MORNING BEFORE
SCT OUT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JK/TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
326 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
326 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
AT 3 AM...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT HAS BEEN LESSENING THE
DEPTH OF THE FOG. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
VISIBILITIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NOT QUITE SURE WHAT THIS
FOG IS GOING TO DO ONCE IT MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL IT
JUST BE A DECK OF STRATUS OR WILL WE SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF EXPANDING THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.
FOR TODAY EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE AFTERNOON MAINLY SUNNY. SINCE THIS
FRONT IS A PACIFIC ONE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 8C THIS AFTERNOON TO 14C BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT ISENTOPICALLY OFF OF THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG CAP. THIS
WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR /WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS/. MEANWHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
ON THANKSGIVING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA. DUE TO
THIS BEING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...KEPT A LOW /20 PERCENT/
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
326 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE 20.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
WEAK OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION AND THERE IS STEEP
LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8C/KM / BETWEEN THE 950-850 MB. DUE TO
THIS...INCLUDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA FROM 29.09Z
AND 29.12Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE DUE TO THE FOLLOWING REASONS...
1. MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ - SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING
SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TRY TO BRING A STRONG MJO SIGNAL
INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DURING THE
PAST 3 DAYS...200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES HAVE
DRAMATICALLY DECREASED. IT WILL INTERESTING OVER THE WEEKEND
WHETHER THIS OSCILLATION STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER 30C WATER IN
THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
2. PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ - FOR THE PAST
WEEK THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ON WHEN THE NAO WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME NEGATIVE. CPC/S SPAGHETTI PLOT CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM -1.5 TO 1. LOOKING AT THE 150 MB WIND
ANOMALIES AND ALSO STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES...DO NOT SEE ANY
INDICATION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE.
3. CLIMATE MODELS - BOTH THE CFS VERSION 2 AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM /NAEFS/ SHOW ABOVE- NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 8 TO 14 TIME PERIOD. AS A RESULT...ANY
COLD PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH SOME
OF THE MODELS WHICH SHOW THAT SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
WITH MIXED SIGNALS ACROSS THE GLOBE...VERY CAUTIOUS OF GRABBING
ONTO ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LOW BEYOND DAY 5 UNTIL THERE IS A COHERENT DAY TO
DAY SIGNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
1035 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
FOG IS GOING TO BE A BIGGER PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THAN FIRST
THOUGHT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST OF A CLOUD MASS THAT SAT
ACROSS MOST OF WI...PER LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE
CLEAR REGION WEST OF THERE VSBYS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 2 MILES
IN MANY AREAS. BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. PASSING SFC FRONT SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR BY 12Z
AT KRST...WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VSBYS. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...WOULD PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AT
KRST. NOT BUYING THAT AT THIS MOMENT. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR LOOKS
LIKELY AT KRST...AND PROBABLE AT KLSE. CAN/T RULE OUT THAT A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR EARLY TUE
MORNING. WITH THE FOG WILL COME SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY AS THE FOG
STARTS TO LIFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SCATTER OUT ANY CIGS
BETWEEN 15-17Z. NOT ALL IS CLEAR CUT WITH VSBYS AND CIGS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...SO A CLOSE WATCH ON CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE AND
UPDATES MADE AS NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TUE AFTERNOON...BUT QUICKLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH...AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD 12Z WED AS A
RESULT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
200 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY/21ST AND THURSDAY/22ND. COOP
SITES ARE 7 AM-7 AM HIGHS...THUS 22ND HIGHS ARE 21.12Z TO 22.12Z.
LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER ARE THE ONLY NON-COOP SITES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SOME OF THE RECORDS BELOW MAY
BE TIED OR BROKEN.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY/21ST THURSDAY/22ND
LA CROSSE WI 72/1990 59/1963
SPARTA WI 65/1990 70/1990
MEDFORD WI 59/1913 65/1990
LANCASTER WI 66/2003 66/1898
MAUSTON WI 67/2003 66/1990
ROCHESTER MN 69/1990 65/1913
AUSTIN MN 70/1990 58/1966
WINONA DAM 5A MN 60/2003 60/2001
WABASHA MN 61/1908 59/1908
CHARLES CITY IA 71/1990 62/1966
OELWEIN IA 71/1990 62/1966
DECORAH IA 71/1990 62/1908
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
117 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-087-
088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......JONES/DB/AJ/BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
227 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING
227 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
THE DENSE FOG THAT FORMED NEAR MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA HAS BEEN SPREADING
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
COUNTIES BORDERING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...BUT THERE IS CONCERN THAT
SOME WISCONSIN COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE ADVISORY
TOO. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR FURTHER EXPANSION DURING THE NEXT
HOUR.
ALSO...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS WITH THE VISIBILITY PROGS SUGGEST
THIS FOG MAY TAKE LONGER TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AT
MIDNIGHT. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...NOTED BY WEST WINDS AT
ROCHESTER...DODGE CENTER AND PRESTON...WOULD HELP CLEAR UP THE
FOG. THIS HAS OCCURRED AT DODGE CENTER AND AS WELL FARTHER SOUTH
AT MASON CITY IN IOWA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS IT IS TAKING AWHILE AT
AUSTIN TO DO SO. THUS...THINKING THE FOG MAY BE DEEPER AND MORE
RESILIENT TO CLEARING. PLUS...POST FRONTAL...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DO NOT DROP ALL THAT MUCH. YOU HAVE TO GO BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO GET DEWPOINTS BELOW FREEZING. HRRR
VISIBILITY PROGS SUGGEST THE FOG COULD STICK AROUND UNTIL 16Z OR
SO. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLAYED THE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AND EXTENDED
THE ADVISORY TO 16Z.
.LONG TERM...
250 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEASONAL TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS
BE ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. 19.12Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS FEATURE
WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS FLOW MORE ZONAL.
IF THE ECMWF DOES VERIFY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR PERIODS
BEYOND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1035 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
FOG IS GOING TO BE A BIGGER PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THAN FIRST
THOUGHT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST OF A CLOUD MASS THAT SAT
ACROSS MOST OF WI...PER LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE
CLEAR REGION WEST OF THERE VSBYS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 2 MILES
IN MANY AREAS. BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. PASSING SFC FRONT SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR BY 12Z
AT KRST...WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VSBYS. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...WOULD PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AT
KRST. NOT BUYING THAT AT THIS MOMENT. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR LOOKS
LIKELY AT KRST...AND PROBABLE AT KLSE. CAN/T RULE OUT THAT A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR EARLY TUE
MORNING. WITH THE FOG WILL COME SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY AS THE FOG
STARTS TO LIFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SCATTER OUT ANY CIGS
BETWEEN 15-17Z. NOT ALL IS CLEAR CUT WITH VSBYS AND CIGS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...SO A CLOSE WATCH ON CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE AND
UPDATES MADE AS NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TUE AFTERNOON...BUT QUICKLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH...AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD 12Z WED AS A
RESULT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
200 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY/21ST AND THURSDAY/22ND. COOP
SITES ARE 6AM-6AM HIGHS...THUS 22ND HIGHS ARE 21.12Z TO 22.12Z. LA
CROSSE AND ROCHESTER ARE ONLY NON-COOP SITES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SOME OF THE RECORDS BELOW MAY
BE TIED OR BROKEN.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY/21ST THURSDAY/22ND
LA CROSSE WI 72/1990 59/1963
SPARTA WI 65/1990 70/1990
MEDFORD WI 59/1913 65/1990
LANCASTER WI 66/2003 66/1898
MAUSTON WI 67/2003 66/1990
ROCHESTER MN 69/1990 65/1913
AUSTIN MN 70/1990 58/1966
WINONA DAM 5A MN 60/2003 60/2001
WABASHA MN 61/1908 59/1908
CHARLES CITY IA 71/1990 62/1966
OELWEIN IA 71/1990 62/1966
DECORAH IA 71/1990 62/1908
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
227 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-087-
088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......JONES/DB/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1035 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...
920 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG MENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING/S RAINS...WHILE ONLY MINIMAL IN AMOUNTS...DID HELP ADD
SOME MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT
AND SOME FUZZ IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF IOWA...JUST WEST
OF THE CLOUD EDGE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE INVERSION
TRAPPING IT. SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG WOULD BE THE RESULT. FRONT IS
APPROACHING...BUT LIKELY WON/T CLEAR FORECAST AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER
12Z. THE LIGHT WINDS AREN/T PARTICULAR DEEP THOUGH...INCREASING TO
10 KTS OR SO WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. STILL...ENOUGH FAVORABLE
VARIABLES FOR FOG FORMATION THAT HAVE ADDED PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ALL SAID...CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE FRONT SLOWS UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEADLINES FOR DENSE FOG...MOSTLY WEST OF
THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER WI.
.LONG TERM...
250 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEASONAL TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS
BE ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. 19.12Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS FEATURE
WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS FLOW MORE ZONAL.
IF THE ECMWF DOES VERIFY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR PERIODS
BEYOND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1035 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
FOG IS GOING TO BE A BIGGER PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THAN FIRST
THOUGHT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST OF A CLOUD MASS THAT SAT
ACROSS MOST OF WI...PER LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE
CLEAR REGION WEST OF THERE VSBYS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 2 MILES
IN MANY AREAS. BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. PASSING SFC FRONT SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR BY 12Z
AT KRST...WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VSBYS. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...WOULD PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AT
KRST. NOT BUYING THAT AT THIS MOMENT. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR LOOKS
LIKELY AT KRST...AND PROBABLE AT KLSE. CAN/T RULE OUT THAT A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR EARLY TUE
MORNING. WITH THE FOG WILL COME SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY AS THE FOG
STARTS TO LIFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SCATTER OUT ANY CIGS
BETWEEN 15-17Z. NOT ALL IS CLEAR CUT WITH VSBYS AND CIGS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...SO A CLOSE WATCH ON CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE AND
UPDATES MADE AS NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TUE AFTERNOON...BUT QUICKLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH...AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD 12Z WED AS A
RESULT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
200 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY/21ST AND THURSDAY/22ND. COOP
SITES ARE 6AM-6AM HIGHS...THUS 22ND HIGHS ARE 21.12Z TO 22.12Z. LA
CROSSE AND ROCHESTER ARE ONLY NON-COOP SITES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SOME OF THE RECORDS BELOW MAY
BE TIED OR BROKEN.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY/21ST THURSDAY/22ND
LA CROSSE WI 72/1990 59/1963
SPARTA WI 65/1990 70/1990
MEDFORD WI 59/1913 65/1990
LANCASTER WI 66/2003 66/1898
MAUSTON WI 67/2003 66/1990
ROCHESTER MN 69/1990 65/1913
AUSTIN MN 70/1990 58/1966
WINONA DAM 5A MN 60/2003 60/2001
WABASHA MN 61/1908 59/1908
CHARLES CITY IA 71/1990 62/1966
OELWEIN IA 71/1990 62/1966
DECORAH IA 71/1990 62/1908
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
250 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......JONES/DB/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
629 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF LOW
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A
LARGE OCEANIC STORM MEANDERS WELL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR
TODAY. CIRRUS BEING ENHANCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 115 KT
JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS DROPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHWEST OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA BY SUNRISE.
975MB RUC MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW
THE SKY COVER FORECAST WILL PLAY OUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
LATER SHIFTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY HAVE TO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...
WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR A BIT
WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. MORE RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
DIGS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...THUS SHUNTING THE SUBTROPICAL JET FAR
TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CALM/LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL YIELD IMPROVING RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE
UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
EAST COAST STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
DAY. WHILE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW FAR OUT TO SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE LAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ITS
WAKE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL...AS DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST...AND THEN FALL TO EVEN COOLER LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40S MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE REGION...SUGGESTING THE FEATURE
WILL LACK A DECENT TAP INTO MOISTURE. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION
AND WINDS BRIEFLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
TREND EVEN COOLER IN THE LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY
WITHIN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT TIMING
AND IMPACTS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WILL THUS MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE CUSP OF MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT LOW-END MVFR CIGS OF 1000-1200 FT TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT
15Z AFTER WHICH RAP SOUNDING SHOW THE LOW CLOUD DECK MIXING OUT.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD
ONCE THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO
IFR...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS THAT CIGS WILL DROP BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.
KSAV...VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THE MARINE AREA WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. SEAS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE MORNING SO FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED
BY A FEW HOURS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINING NEARSHORE LEGS.
SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN FORCE THERE.
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER 15-20 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 10-15
KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT NEARSHORE
WATERS TO 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ENHANCED
OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS. HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...LONG
PERIOD SWELLS AND COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER ALL
WATERS LATE WEEK...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
654 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z. FOG WILL ERODE AWAY FROM THE
WEST...BUT ONLY SLOW PROGRESS IS EXPECTED. HRRR IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING ONTO THE FOG AND DO NOT EXPECTED IT TO LAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT IS INDICATING. A COOLER START THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AS WELL.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED. UNDER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NOVEMBER. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING FORECAST...WITH
WARMEST DAY WEDNESDAY AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND CONDITIONS LOOK RIGHT FOR GOOD MIXING. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES POP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GOING IN LOCATIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY IF MIXING IS MAXIMIZED AS 85MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 14C
ACROSS THE WEST.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE HEAD OF BOUNDARY...WITH NAM AND ECMWF MUCH
LESS SO. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LARGE
COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH...AND
COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM AS BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA.
THE END OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS BUILD IN A
WEAK RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ABLE TO WARM
NICELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO HAVE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSH ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING DOWN WEAK RIDGING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...20/12Z
FOG OVER EASTERN IA WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING AS SOME
MIXING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING OF THE
FOG ON THE HRRR SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA HOLDING WELL
PAST 18Z. GOES-R SIMULATED WF FCST PRODUCT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE FOG TIMING AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE
CLEARING. LITTLE ACTION IN THE REST OF THE TAF WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BREMER-BUTLER-DAVIS-GRUNDY-JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-
TAMA-WAPELLO.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 12
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...MS NOV 12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
411 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS WITH A LARGE TROUGH JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY AND SW FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH WAA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ON WED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION REGARDING POSSIBLE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADA
US BORDER ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER LESS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN TROUGH
WILL KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MET WITH BL WINDS 27-29KT AND H85 WINDS AROUND 40KT. ITS
STILL TOO EARLY FOR AN NPW...HOWEVER I DID INCREASE WINDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING. BEYOND FORCING IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONT THE BEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE AIR MASS ALSO
REMAINS VERY DRY ACROSS CWA...SO IM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP.
WITH FROPA DURING THE DAY HIGH TEMPS THU ARE TRICKY...HOWEVER THEY
STILL SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GRADIENT OF UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
AT LEAST EARLY ON MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. COOLEST DAY WILL BE ON FRIDAY WITH MODERATION FOR
SATURDAY. THEN CHANGES AND INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN AFTER THAT. NEWER
MODEL DATA...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND OLDER CANADIAN WAS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION THE MODEL DATA BRINGS IN NOT JUST ONE
SHORTWAVE BUT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
THIS NEWER DATA IS FITTING THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS
SEASON AND IN FACT THIS YEAR. THE TROUGH DOES NOT COME THROUGH IN
ONE NICE ORGANIZED SYSTEM BUT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
SOLUTION AS WELL. THESE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES HAVE TENDED TO SCOUR OUT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT THE MODELS THINK IS THERE. BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS THE CASE HERE AS WELL. PLUS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH RATHER
EARLY AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS A GREAT DISTANCE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE INVOLVED AS WELL. AS A RESULT OF
ALL THIS AND COLLABORATION...KEPT THE SMALL AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE INIT GAVE ME AND REDUCED THE CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF WAS NOT AS COLD AS THE FRIGID GFS. THE ECMWF
TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND ALSO MATCHED UP WELL WITH
THE CRH_INIT SO LEFT THE TEMPERATURES ALONE AS RESULT OF THAT AND
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AROUND MIDDAY AT KGLD AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK AS A LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT. WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RFW
CRITERIA. FOR NOW I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL MEET THE 3HR
REQUIREMENT...NO RFW PLANNED FOR NOW.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON WHEN RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO LEOTI KS. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE LIGHTER IN THE WEST...WITH STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY
WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF RFW CRITERIA OTHER THAN A NARROW CORRIDOR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WHERE THERE COULD SEE A CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND. THIS
IS GOING TO BE CLOSE...SO ITS WORTH MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
513 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
513 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
513 AM UPDATE...EXPANDING THE ADVISORY TO SOME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
COUNTIES. SEE WWA SECTION BELOW. HAVE REMOVED OLMSTED AND MOWER
COUNTIES AS SOME DRIER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS HAS CLEARED OUT MUCH
OF THE FOG THERE. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST...SO MORE COUNTIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED. NEEDLESS
TO SAY A RAPIDLY EVOLVING SITUATION HERE WITH THE FOG.
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION AT 326 AM...
AT 3 AM...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT HAS BEEN LESSENING THE
DEPTH OF THE FOG. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
VISIBILITIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NOT QUITE SURE WHAT THIS
FOG IS GOING TO DO ONCE IT MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL IT
JUST BE A DECK OF STRATUS OR WILL WE SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF EXPANDING THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.
FOR TODAY EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE AFTERNOON MAINLY SUNNY. SINCE THIS
FRONT IS A PACIFIC ONE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 8C THIS AFTERNOON TO 14C BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT ISENTOPICALLY OFF OF THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG CAP. THIS
WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR /WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS/. MEANWHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
ON THANKSGIVING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA. DUE TO
THIS BEING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...KEPT A LOW /20 PERCENT/
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
326 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE 20.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
WEAK OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION AND THERE IS STEEP
LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8C/KM / BETWEEN THE 950-850 MB. DUE TO
THIS...INCLUDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA FROM 29.09Z
AND 29.12Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE DUE TO THE FOLLOWING REASONS...
1. MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ - SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING
SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TRY TO BRING A STRONG MJO SIGNAL
INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DURING THE
PAST 3 DAYS...200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES HAVE
DRAMATICALLY DECREASED. IT WILL INTERESTING OVER THE WEEKEND
WHETHER THIS OSCILLATION STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER 30C WATER IN
THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
2. PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ - FOR THE PAST
WEEK THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ON WHEN THE NAO WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME NEGATIVE. CPC/S SPAGHETTI PLOT CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM -1.5 TO 1. LOOKING AT THE 150 MB WIND
ANOMALIES AND ALSO STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES...DO NOT SEE ANY
INDICATION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE.
3. CLIMATE MODELS - BOTH THE CFS VERSION 2 AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM /NAEFS/ SHOW ABOVE- NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 8 TO 14 TIME PERIOD. AS A RESULT...ANY
COLD PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH SOME
OF THE MODELS WHICH SHOW THAT SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
WITH MIXED SIGNALS ACROSS THE GLOBE...VERY CAUTIOUS OF GRABBING
ONTO ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LOW BEYOND DAY 5 UNTIL THERE IS A COHERENT DAY TO
DAY SIGNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
1035 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
FOG IS GOING TO BE A BIGGER PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THAN FIRST
THOUGHT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST OF A CLOUD MASS THAT SAT
ACROSS MOST OF WI...PER LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE
CLEAR REGION WEST OF THERE VSBYS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 2 MILES
IN MANY AREAS. BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. PASSING SFC FRONT SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR BY 12Z
AT KRST...WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VSBYS. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...WOULD PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AT
KRST. NOT BUYING THAT AT THIS MOMENT. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR LOOKS
LIKELY AT KRST...AND PROBABLE AT KLSE. CAN/T RULE OUT THAT A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR EARLY TUE
MORNING. WITH THE FOG WILL COME SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY AS THE FOG
STARTS TO LIFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SCATTER OUT ANY CIGS
BETWEEN 15-17Z. NOT ALL IS CLEAR CUT WITH VSBYS AND CIGS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...SO A CLOSE WATCH ON CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE AND
UPDATES MADE AS NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TUE AFTERNOON...BUT QUICKLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH...AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD 12Z WED AS A
RESULT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
200 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY/21ST AND THURSDAY/22ND. COOP
SITES ARE 7 AM-7 AM HIGHS...THUS 22ND HIGHS ARE 21.12Z TO 22.12Z.
LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER ARE THE ONLY NON-COOP SITES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SOME OF THE RECORDS BELOW MAY
BE TIED OR BROKEN.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY/21ST THURSDAY/22ND
LA CROSSE WI 72/1990 59/1963
SPARTA WI 65/1990 70/1990
MEDFORD WI 59/1913 65/1990
LANCASTER WI 66/2003 66/1898
MAUSTON WI 67/2003 66/1990
ROCHESTER MN 69/1990 65/1913
AUSTIN MN 70/1990 58/1966
WINONA DAM 5A MN 60/2003 60/2001
WABASHA MN 61/1908 59/1908
CHARLES CITY IA 71/1990 62/1966
OELWEIN IA 71/1990 62/1966
DECORAH IA 71/1990 62/1908
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
513 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-
041-042-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-088-
095-096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE/AJ
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......JONES/DB/AJ/BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
330 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH CENTERED FROM SRN IA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA KICKING IN ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EAST...WHERE
LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IOWA EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK WEST/NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THEREFORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
POSSIBLE FROM WATERLOO TO MARSHALLTOWN TO OTTUMWA OVERNIGHT...BASED
ON THE HRRR OUTPUT FOR LOW CLOUDS. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA AND WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO START
LEVELING OFF/POSSIBLY WARMING TOWARD SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO IOWA AS THE THERMAL RIDGE LEANS
INTO THE STATE. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO GOOD WARMING. AN INVERSION NEAR 900 MB APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FROM ACHIEVING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S HOWEVER EVEN IF THE INVERSION HOLDS...SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE NEAR
SURFACE SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE THERMAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING.
LOWS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THURSDAY WILL HAVE
A WARM START WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE NMM AND ARW BASED MODELS ARE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS AFFECT
IOWA MORE. GENERALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES A BIT.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA SHOULD REACH THE 60S BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION NEAR 850 MB WILL
ENHANCE MIXING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MIXED
LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
FOR POTENTIAL MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING THETA-E
ADVECTION THROUGH THOSE LEVELS. MINOR MODERATION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS DUE TO ARRIVE MONDAY AND LEAD TO A
COLD START TO NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...20/18Z
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AT KOTM...WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/HAZE MAY KEEP
IT MVFR BRIEFLY THROUGH 19Z BEFORE ERODING/DISSIPATING. GOES-R
SATELLITE FORECAST PRODUCT ALSO SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER
MINNESOTA TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KMCW. FOR NOW SATELLITE FORECAST PRODUCT
SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND
MODELS SHOWING ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THUS HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1110 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG WORDING AND TOUCH UP SKY
COVER GRIDS SOME AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE/ERODE OUT OF
THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH/EASTERN CWA WITH THE COOL START AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN
SOME PLACES. WEAK WAA ALOFT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS AND STRONGER PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT NOT REALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE JUST NUDGED THEM DOWN A BIT IN SOME PLACES
NORTH/EAST.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z. FOG WILL ERODE AWAY FROM THE
WEST...BUT ONLY SLOW PROGRESS IS EXPECTED. HRRR IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING ONTO THE FOG AND DO NOT EXPECTED IT TO LAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT IS INDICATING. A COOLER START THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AS WELL.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED. UNDER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NOVEMBER. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING FORECAST...WITH
WARMEST DAY WEDNESDAY AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND CONDITIONS LOOK RIGHT FOR GOOD MIXING. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES POP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GOING IN LOCATIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY IF MIXING IS MAXIMIZED AS 85MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 14C
ACROSS THE WEST.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE HEAD OF BOUNDARY...WITH NAM AND ECMWF MUCH
LESS SO. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LARGE
COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH...AND
COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM AS BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA.
THE END OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS BUILD IN A
WEAK RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ABLE TO WARM
NICELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO HAVE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSH ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING DOWN WEAK RIDGING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...20/18Z
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AT KOTM...WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/HAZE MAY KEEP
IT MVFR BRIEFLY THROUGH 19Z BEFORE ERODING/DISSIPATING. GOES-R
SATELLITE FORECAST PRODUCT ALSO SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER
MINNESOTA TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KMCW. FOR NOW SATELLITE FORECAST PRODUCT
SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND
MODELS SHOWING ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THUS HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 12
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...MJB
UPDATE...MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DES MOINES IA
1005 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG WORDING AND TOUCH UP SKY
COVER GRIDS SOME AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE/ERODE OUT OF
THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH/EASTERN CWA WITH THE COOL START AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN
SOME PLACES. WEAK WAA ALOFT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS AND STRONGER PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT NOT REALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE JUST NUDGED THEM DOWN A BIT IN SOME PLACES
NORTH/EAST.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z. FOG WILL ERODE AWAY FROM THE
WEST...BUT ONLY SLOW PROGRESS IS EXPECTED. HRRR IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING ONTO THE FOG AND DO NOT EXPECTED IT TO LAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT IS INDICATING. A COOLER START THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AS WELL.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED. UNDER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NOVEMBER. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING FORECAST...WITH
WARMEST DAY WEDNESDAY AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND CONDITIONS LOOK RIGHT FOR GOOD MIXING. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES POP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GOING IN LOCATIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY IF MIXING IS MAXIMIZED AS 85MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 14C
ACROSS THE WEST.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THESE CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE HEAD OF BOUNDARY...WITH NAM AND ECMWF MUCH
LESS SO. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LARGE
COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH...AND
COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM AS BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA.
THE END OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS BUILD IN A
WEAK RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ABLE TO WARM
NICELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO HAVE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSH ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING DOWN WEAK RIDGING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...20/12Z
FOG OVER EASTERN IA WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING AS SOME
MIXING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING OF THE
FOG ON THE HRRR SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA HOLDING WELL
PAST 18Z. GOES-R SIMULATED WRF FCST PRODUCT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE FOG TIMING AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE
CLEARING. LITTLE ACTION IN THE REST OF THE TAF WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 12
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...MS NOV 12
UPDATE...MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS WITH A LARGE TROUGH JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY AND SW FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH WAA ON EASTERN EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ON WED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION REGARDING POSSIBLE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADA
US BORDER ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER LESS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN TROUGH
WILL KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MET WITH BL WINDS 27-29KT AND H85 WINDS AROUND 40KT. ITS
STILL TOO EARLY FOR AN NPW...HOWEVER I DID INCREASE WINDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING. BEYOND FORCING IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONT THE BEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE AIR MASS ALSO
REMAINS VERY DRY ACROSS CWA...SO IM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP.
WITH FROPA DURING THE DAY HIGH TEMPS THU ARE TRICKY...HOWEVER THEY
STILL SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GRADIENT OF UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
AT LEAST EARLY ON MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. COOLEST DAY WILL BE ON FRIDAY WITH MODERATION FOR
SATURDAY. THEN CHANGES AND INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN AFTER THAT. NEWER
MODEL DATA...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND OLDER CANADIAN WAS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION THE MODEL DATA BRINGS IN NOT JUST ONE
SHORTWAVE BUT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
THIS NEWER DATA IS FITTING THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS
SEASON AND IN FACT THIS YEAR. THE TROUGH DOES NOT COME THROUGH IN
ONE NICE ORGANIZED SYSTEM BUT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
SOLUTION AS WELL. THESE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES HAVE TENDED TO SCOUR OUT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT THE MODELS THINK IS THERE. BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS THE CASE HERE AS WELL. PLUS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH RATHER
EARLY AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS A GREAT DISTANCE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE INVOLVED AS WELL. AS A RESULT OF
ALL THIS AND COLLABORATION...KEPT THE SMALL AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE INIT GAVE ME AND REDUCED THE CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF WAS NOT AS COLD AS THE FRIGID GFS. THE ECMWF
TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND ALSO MATCHED UP WELL WITH
THE CRH_INIT SO LEFT THE TEMPERATURES ALONE AS RESULT OF THAT AND
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2012
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT. WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RFW
CRITERIA. FOR NOW I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL MEET THE 3HR
REQUIREMENT...NO RFW PLANNED FOR NOW.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON WHEN RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO LEOTI KS. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE LIGHTER IN THE WEST...WITH STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY
WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF RFW CRITERIA OTHER THAN A NARROW CORRIDOR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WHERE THERE COULD SEE A CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND. THIS
IS GOING TO BE CLOSE...SO ITS WORTH MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...032
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
320 PM EST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS WITH A LEGITIMATE SHOWER
OVER RICHLAND COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE COME AND GONE THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. WILL GO WITH A 20 POP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
00Z OR SO TO COVER ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO NW OH AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY GONE BY LATE EVENING.
HAVE SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS RECENTLY BUT THINK THE FLAVOR
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS STRATO CU BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE SUNSHINE. EVEN WARMER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS ALSO EXPECTED. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NW PA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY. EXPECT THAT
LATER SHIFTS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER
WORDING. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND NEG 10 BY 12Z SAT. WILL NEED TO HANG
ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DECENT LAKE EFFECT SHSN EVENT STILL LOOKS IN ORDER FOR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT TAPERING TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SUN MORNING AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY STOP THE
PRECIP THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE ARRIVING MONDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY BY TUE SO WILL
CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW INTO TUE THUS LEANING MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TRENDING MORE THAT WAY TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS MAY
LOWER IN THE WEST CLOSER TO MVFR LEVELS INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY SHIFTING TO MAINLY THE
SNOWBELT FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH SHRA CHANGING TO SHSN. VFR
SHOULD RETURN MOST SITES SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE LAKE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 0C...STABLE...IT WILL BE TOUGH
FOR THOSE STRONGER WINDS TO GET TO THE LAKE SURFACE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS. GOING WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH HAS THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS FOR LATE FRIDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE MAINLY ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS VERY
MARGINAL AND BRIEF...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE WATER LEVEL
WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NONE THE LESS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEED FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER FRONT OR TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
301 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CLOUDS/FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWS AN AREA OF FOG ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA.
THIS AREA HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT
IT TO DISSIPATE BY EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AROUND THE AREA.
20.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NAM IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION IN REGARD TO THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AND WENT MORE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ITS
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PROBLEM IS ON FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL AGAIN
TONIGHT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION TONIGHT...BUT NAM WANTS TO SCOUR THINGS OUT
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...FEEL RAP MAYBE
MORE ACCURATE AS GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE WEAK UNTIL LATER TONIGHT
WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE WEST. FEEL WIDESPREAD FOG IS AGAIN
LIKELY...MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TEENS CELSIUS BY AFTERNOON AND THUS EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MIXING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 925MB AND 950MB AND USING THE
MIX DOWN TOOL RESULTS IN A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MIXING TO
925MB AND 950MB. THE CAVEAT WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG
EXPECTED INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS THAT MAY PREVENT FULL WARMING.
NONE THE LESS FORECAST IS BASED ON CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATING BY MID
MORNING AND COMBINED WITH A MILD START WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...NAM IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND USED A MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN EITHER CASE...THE COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND AND WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
GENERATES SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF
KEEPING THE RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE LOWER END
PROBABILITIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRATUS LOOKS TO ADVECT
SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER TIGHT FRIDAY AND LOOKS LIKE A
BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE MORNING LOWS. BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOW/RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE THE LOWER END PROBABILITIES IN
THESE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...
301 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIME FRAME.
20.12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND NOW HAS MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW REGIME. GFS AND
ECMWF DO DIFFER WITH SOME SUBTLE WAVES EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH
THE FLOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION AND THUS HAVE WENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
A VERY PROBLEMATIC PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A RATHER STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. LIGHT WINDS/LIMITED
MIXING THIS TIME OF YEAR HAVE RESULTED IN PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR DENSE
FOG 25-50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE MS RIVER. SFC OBS/VIS IMAGERY
SHOWING ONLY A VERY SLOW EROSION/IMPROVEMENT OF THE FOG AS OF
MID-DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM LIFR TO IFR IN THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING/LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO RE-THICKEN AGAIN
TONIGHT...AT LEAST THRU THE EVENING HOURS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WED...ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE IFR/LIFR
STRATUS AND 1-3SM VSBYS IN BR VS. M1/4SM IN FG IF THE WINDS WERE TO
STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE. GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN WED WITH WARMER/
DRIER AIR ADVECTING/MIXING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...IFR/MVFR VSBYS AND SOME IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THRU MUCH
OF WED MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH DEEPER MIXING/EROSION
OF THE INVERSION FOR THE MID-DAY/AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
200 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY/21ST AND THURSDAY/22ND. COOP
SITES ARE 7 AM-7 AM HIGHS...THUS 22ND HIGHS ARE 21.12Z TO 22.12Z.
LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER ARE THE ONLY NON-COOP SITES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SOME OF THE RECORDS BELOW MAY
BE TIED OR BROKEN.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY/21ST THURSDAY/22ND
LA CROSSE WI 72/1990 59/1963
SPARTA WI 65/1990 70/1990
MEDFORD WI 59/1913 65/1990
LANCASTER WI 66/2003 66/1898
MAUSTON WI 67/2003 66/1990
ROCHESTER MN 69/1990 65/1913
AUSTIN MN 70/1990 58/1966
WINONA DAM 5A MN 60/2003 60/2001
WABASHA MN 61/1908 59/1908
CHARLES CITY IA 71/1990 62/1966
OELWEIN IA 71/1990 62/1966
DECORAH IA 71/1990 62/1908
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
301 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION.....RRS
CLIMATE......JONES/DB/AJ/BOYNE