Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/16/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR MILD DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BRING PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH COOLING
ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC AND BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT
TUESDAY WITH UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE THREAT OF ANY FOG
FORMING ALONG THE COAST LOOKS MINIMAL...EVEN THOUGH SOME DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST NOW. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW
DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND 09Z...WHICH WOULD BRING
LOWER DEW POINTS FROM INLAND AREAS BACK TO THE COAST. HENCE...HAVE
REMOVED DENSE FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. AN
EDDY SHOULD DEVELOP WED DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT. REGARDING THE WINDS...THEY
HAVE DECREASED IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS/SANTA ANA MTNS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS A N-S AXIS OVER ARIZONA/NEVADA
WITH A TROUGH NEAR 140 W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THU...BUT...IT WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT. SOME MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SW FOR THU NIGHT...BUT 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH
SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ALSO THERE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MARINE LAYER MOISTURE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THU NIGHT...BUT ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
SMALL...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. AFTER THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FRI MORNING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RATHER SMALL NORTH OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS JUST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND SAT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW FOR TIMING AND IF ANY PRECIP WILL RESULT THIS FAR SOUTH
DUE TO SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER. THE LAST
SHORT WAVE WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON
WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. AFTER THAT...THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH WEAK RIDGING AND
POSSIBLY WEAK SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW TUE...ALONG WITH WARMING.
&&
140400Z...A VERY LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER 15/1200Z AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. CLOUD BASES AROUND 200 FT MSL WITH TOPS A COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET HIGHER. HOWEVER...COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS
KSNA...KSAN...AND KCRQ SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR. CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS
MAKING AN INLAND PUSH IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH A ONLY A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ABV 20000 FT MSL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AFT 15/0600Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH A COUPLE MILES INLAND BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER IS THREAT OF DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING FORMING AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS INNER WATERS. DENSE FOG IS
AGAIN A THREAT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST WIND GUSTS ARE NOW LESS THAN 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
POOR AT BEST. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND SO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HUMIDITIES WILL
GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES IN THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1029 AM MST WED NOV 14 2012
.AVIATION...
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS STILL
PROJECTED TO PUSH ACROSS KCOS BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TONIGHT...AND
ACROSS KPUB BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM MST WED NOV 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO WESTERN CO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO THE
LAST...WITH TEMPS AS OF 330 AM IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 5 TO 15 F FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...SO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 AND 700 MB TEMPS WARM TODAY...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND
60 F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 50 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER
WAVE CROSSING THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
ROCKIES TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
CO THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE INITIAL COOL PUSH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS
THE PALMER DVD SOME TIME BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...AND THE NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN SFC WINDS MAY SERVE TO ACTUALLY MIX THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SLOW THE COOL DOWN TONIGHT. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THE TRUE COLD
AIR FILTERING DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
27
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
COOLER MOST AREAS THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST PRONOUNCED COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WHILE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS SEE ONLY A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN MAX TEMPS. WARMER AIR
RETURNS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK
WAVE SHEARING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MODEL DIFFERENCES
APPEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT AS NAM PRODUCES AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOW JUST A
FEW -SHSN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SCATTERED POPS OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THOUGH ONLY MINOR
SNOW ACCUMS...WHICH LOOK FINE FOR NOW. OVER THE WEEKEND...ECMWF
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE
THAN THE MAINLY DRY GFS. FORECAST HAS JUST SOME ISOLATED POPS OVER
THE PEAKS SUN/MON WHICH MAY NEED TO BE BEEFED UP IF TREND TOWARD
MORE MOISTURE IN THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES. OUTSIDE THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...MILD AND DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA TUE/WED BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER
ALL OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. LOOK FOR A N-NE
SHIFT IN THE SFC WINDS FOR KCOS BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TONIGHT...AND
FOR KPUB BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1009 AM MST WED NOV 14 2012
.UPDATE...BULK OF THE WAVE CLOUD HAS MOVED ONTO THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA...THOUGH WINDS ACROSS MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS HAVE DECREASED WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN WAVE.
AIRMASS SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT COULD BE OFFSET BY CLOUD COVER.
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ASCENT AND
OROGRAPHICS LOOKS MINIMAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. LATEST MODELS SHOW
WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...MAIN IMPACT
TO BE A WIND SHIFT WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...
CURRENT FORECASTS LOOKING ON TRACK WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD CLOVER.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TAF TRENDS FOR THE UPCOMING
ISSUANCE. LOOKING LIKE WINDS ACROSS AREA WANTING TO TREND TOWARD
WESTERLY...THOUGH LATEST RUC AND HRRR STILL SHOWING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. LOOKING LIKE VARIABLE IS THE WAY TO GO AS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 8 KTS. RUC DOES INDICATE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
AROUND 03Z BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. ANY WIND SHIFT MAY END UP BEING
MASKED WITH THE DEVELOPING DRAINAGE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM MST WED NOV 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING OVER OUR AREA AT THIS
TIME...AND THEY APPEAR TO EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. THERE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE SOME DECREASE LATER TODAY AS
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT DIMINISHED...BUT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
WILL BE LIMITED...PERHAPS STILL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING AND THICKER CLOUD COVER. WE
COULD HAVE CLOUDS BRUSHING THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AGAIN...THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY
THAT TIME. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SUFFICE. CLOUDS WILL OFFSET
THE WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...FORECAST OF A FEW DEGREES WARMER STILL
LOOKS GOOD. I DID TRIM THE HIGHS IN AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
A COLD POOL IN THE VALLEYS WILL PERSIST UNDER THE CLOUD DECK.
LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. BY LATER FRIDAY
IT BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS BENIGN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED THE REST OF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION FOLLOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOW WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THURSDAY...WITH A MORE
NORMAL WIND PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE PLAINS HAS FAILRY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLIES FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY...JUST A TAD IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY...WITH IT
LOWERS AND DEEPENS SOMEWHAT IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT WEST OF
THE DIVIDE IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. FOR POPS WILL LEAVE IN THE
"SLIGHT CHANCE"S OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
MOISTURE IN MIND. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C COOLER THAN TODAY`S.
FRIDAY`S READINGS WARM UP 4-6 C OVER THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK
TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO IS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STAY ABOVE NORMAL ALL FOUR DAYS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. TENDENCY WILL BE
TOWARD SE TO E WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THIS
EVENING...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE MASKED BY TERRAIN
EFFECTS AND THE NORMAL SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY
NOT OCCUR IN THE DENVER AREA. IN ANY EVENT...SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS
THAN 12 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
438 AM MST WED NOV 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO WESTERN CO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO THE
LAST...WITH TEMPS AS OF 330 AM IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 5 TO 15 F FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...SO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 AND 700 MB TEMPS WARM TODAY...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND
60 F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 50 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER
WAVE CROSSING THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
ROCKIES TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
CO THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE INITIAL COOL PUSH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS
THE PALMER DVD SOME TIME BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...AND THE NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN SFC WINDS MAY SERVE TO ACTUALLY MIX THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SLOW THE COOL DOWN TONIGHT. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THE TRUE COLD
AIR FILTERING DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
MOORE
.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
COOLER MOST AREAS THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST PRONOUNCED COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WHILE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS SEE ONLY A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN MAX TEMPS. WARMER AIR
RETURNS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK
WAVE SHEARING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MODEL DIFFERENCES
APPEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT AS NAM PRODUCES AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOW JUST A
FEW -SHSN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SCATTERED POPS OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THOUGH ONLY MINOR
SNOW ACCUMS...WHICH LOOK FINE FOR NOW. OVER THE WEEKEND...ECMWF
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE
THAN THE MAINLY DRY GFS. FORECAST HAS JUST SOME ISOLATED POPS OVER
THE PEAKS SUN/MON WHICH MAY NEED TO BE BEEFED UP IF TREND TOWARD
MORE MOISTURE IN THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES. OUTSIDE THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...MILD AND DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA TUE/WED BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER
ALL OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. LOOK FOR A N-NE
SHIFT IN THE SFC WINDS FOR KCOS BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TONIGHT...AND
FOR KPUB BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1245 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTS
EAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH THURSDAY. A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND BUILDS OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS 1038 HPA SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
MONTREAL. CLOUDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND NYC AT 900 HPA LEVEL BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THIS LEVEL AS SEEN IN TIME LAGGED RAP DATA.
THUS...FCST IS FOR A SUNNY AFTN FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE AS WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL
MIXED. WINDS SUBSIDE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WX CHANGE IS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO FCST.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TAKING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE NORTHEAST...
LARGELY SPARING THE REGION SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. GUSTY NE WINDS...
LIGHT RAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM...AND EPISODES OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IMPACTS. OF COURSE...THESE
TRENDS CAN CHANGE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC
NW MOVES ONSHORE TODAY AND GETS BETTER SAMPLED. CLEARLY THOUGH...
OUTSIDE OF HIGH SEAS AND MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS...THE TREND
IS POINTING IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION.
BEFORE THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
DYING COLD FRONT PROGRESS ACROSS THE EAST...LEAVING BEHIND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE TN VLY AND SE.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT CLEARLY HAS TRENDED SOUTH THE LAST 24H WITH BOTH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE. THIS LOW NOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS MON-WED...BUT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON THE NW FRINGE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
EVEN IMPROVE MORE SO IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS SUN INTO TUE.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KTS THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT.
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
BECOME BROKEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LEFT OF 040 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LEFT OF 040 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY NE WINDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS TO MINIMAL
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN SUCH ON THURSDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN NEAR 5 FT...SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY A DISTANT ATLANTIC
LOW.
THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE OCEAN.
A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 8 TO
10 FT SEAS BY THE LATE SUN WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. THE
REMAINING WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL SCA GUSTS BY SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON
THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY A HALF A FOOT OR LESS IS NEEDED TO REACH
MINOR BENCHMARKS. A COASTAL STATEMENT IS PLANNED FOR ISSUANCE
LATE THIS AFTN FOR TIDES NEARING THE MINOR BENCHMARK LEVELS
THURSDAY MORNING.
NOTE THAT THE EVENING TIDE CYCLE IS LOWER BY OVER A FOOT AND THUS
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS FCST FOR THESE CYCLES.
A PROLONGED NE FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TYPICALLY MORE VULNERABLE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT UPTON NEW YORK
/KOKX/ IS UNAVAILABLE. THE RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR UP TO 2
WEEKS. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTS
EAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH THURSDAY. A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND BUILDS OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS 1038 HPA SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
MONTREAL. CLOUDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AT 900 HPA LEVEL BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN AT
THIS LEVEL AS SEEN IN TIME LAGGED RAP DATA. THUS...FCST IS FOR A
SUNNY AFTN FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS AND LAMP GUIDANCE AS WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED. WINDS SUBSIDE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WX CHANGE IS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE. A PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS
HIGHS AND LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TAKING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE NORTHEAST...
LARGELY SPARING THE REGION SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. GUSTY NE WINDS...
LIGHT RAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM...AND EPISODES OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IMPACTS. OF COURSE...THESE
TRENDS CAN CHANGE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC
NW MOVES ONSHORE TODAY AND GETS BETTER SAMPLED. CLEARLY THOUGH...
OUTSIDE OF HIGH SEAS AND MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS...THE TREND
IS POINTING IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION.
BEFORE THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
DYING COLD FRONT PROGRESS ACROSS THE EAST...LEAVING BEHIND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE TN VLY AND SE.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT CLEARLY HAS TRENDED SOUTH THE LAST 24H WITH BOTH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE. THIS LOW NOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS MON-WED...BUT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON THE NW FRINGE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
EVEN IMPROVE MORE SO IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS SUN INTO TUE.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. GUSTS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KTS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. GUSTS MAY BE
MORE OCCASIONAL AT INLAND TAF SITES.
BROKEN-OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT OVER LONG ISLAND WILL
DISSIPATE BY AFTN. OTHERWISE...SKC...WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LEFT OF 040 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LEFT OF 040 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-SAT NGT...VFR.
.SUN...MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS TO MINIMAL
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN SUCH ON THURSDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN NEAR 5 FT...SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY A DISTANT ATLANTIC
LOW.
THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE OCEAN.
A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 8 TO
10 FT SEAS BY THE LATE SUN WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. THE
REMAINING WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL SCA GUSTS BY SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON
THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY A HALF A FOOT OR LESS IS NEEDED TO REACH
MINOR BENCHMARKS. A COASTAL STATEMENT IS PLANNED FOR ISSUANCE
LATE THIS AFTN FOR TIDES NEARING THE MINOR BENCHMARK LEVELS.
NOTE THAT THE EVENING TIDE CYCLE IS LOWER BY OVER A FOOT AND THUS
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS FCST FOR THESE CYCLES.
A PROLONGED NE FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TYPICALLY MORE VULNERABLE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT UPTON NEW YORK
/KOKX/ IS UNAVAILABLE. THE RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR UP TO 2
WEEKS. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW/JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...MET/JST
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC/SEARS/JST
MARINE...MET/DW/JST
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JST
EQUIPMENT...JST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
328 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST - TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
21Z RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS CAUSED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 MPH...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF THE WEST THAN
WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
JL
LONG TERM - THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL SEE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM
THROUGH A MOISTURE STARVED REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED
TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY IN A ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AND MERGE
WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS
WILL BE A DEEPER SYSTEM...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE TWO WAVES MERGE AND STRENGTHEN...EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
948 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
SURFACE TROUGH TAKING ITS TIME IN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. NARROW
AREA OF LOW DEWPOINTS AND CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO KEEP FALLING. LATEST
RUC IS CATCHING THE WINDS/TROUGH WELL. HOWEVER...NOTHING IS
CATCHING THE EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS. WINDS MAY NOT TURN TO
WESTERLY UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SOMETIME. SO LOWERED MINS IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND USED THE RUC FOR THE WIND FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH A CLEAR SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SFC TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE WEST THEN SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER TO 25 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY 55 TO 60.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL AMOUNT TO A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD
BECOME BREEZY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE FROM
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK UP AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S SO FIRE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST TO BE A CONCERN AT THE
MOMENT.
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DRY SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE SYSTEM THAT WAS ORIGINALLY
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN STILL
SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE...BUT FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS NO
PRECIPITATION HERE. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE
MOVING RIGHT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF. THEREFORE...HAVE
KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER THAT...MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. THE
EUROPEAN IS SUGGESTING THE SAME DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
LOCAL COLLABORATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE CALM
WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EACH
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...REACHING THE MID 30S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AT KGLD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
901 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
SURFACE TROUGH TAKING ITS TIME IN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. NARROW
AREA OF LOW DEWPOINTS AND CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO KEEP FALLING. LATEST
RUC IS CATCHING THE WINDS/TROUGH WELL. HOWEVER...NOTHING IS
CATCHING THE EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS. WINDS MAY NOT TURN TO
WESTERLY UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SOMETIME. SO LOWERED MINS IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND USED THE RUC FOR THE WIND FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH A CLEAR SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SFC TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE WEST THEN SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER TO 25 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY 55 TO 60.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL AMOUNT TO A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD
BECOME BREEZY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE FROM
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK UP AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S SO FIRE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST TO BE A CONCERN AT THE
MOMENT.
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DRY SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE SYSTEM THAT WAS ORIGINALLY
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN STILL
SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE...BUT FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS NO
PRECIPITATION HERE. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE
MOVING RIGHT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF. THEREFORE...HAVE
KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER THAT...MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. THE
EUROPEAN IS SUGGESTING THE SAME DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
LOCAL COLLABORATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE CALM
WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EACH
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...REACHING THE MID 30S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. VARIABLE AND SHIFTING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1004 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD TRENDS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
AS STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY EDGES SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS STOPPED ERODING AND HAS ACTUALLY BEGAN TO
REBUILD SOUTHWESTWARD. NAM/GFS SHOW THE LAYER BEGINNING TO ERODE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT RAP 925MB RH SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK
REMAINING ALL DAY. 12Z KPIT SOUNDING INDICATES A STRONG INVERSION
AT 850MB KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED IN BELOW THIS LAYER. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND CURRENT STRAOTCU DECK IN PLACE...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO WARM MUCH TODAY AND ERODE THE
INVERSION. THUS...ANTICIPATE CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WAA
BEGINS TO AID THE EROSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN LOCATIONS WITH CLOUDY
SKIES FORECAST (SINCE MODELS ARE EXPECTING SUN) AND GO NEAR
GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL JUST KEEP SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE...BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO DOMINATE THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR LOW IS
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE TWD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT
REMAINING COLD POOL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KMGW/KHLG THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL EARLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KZZV. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING IS NOT ANTICIPATED LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 21Z FOR KFKL AND KDUJ.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PREVALENT VFR THIS PERIOD DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
827 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS IN SKY COVERAGE AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY
EDGES SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS STOPPED ERODING AND HAS ACTUALLY BEGAN TO
REBUILD SOUTHWESTWARD. NAM/GFS SHOW THE LAYER BEGINNING TO ERODE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT RAP 925MB RH SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK
REMAINING ALL DAY. 12Z KPIT SOUNDING INDICATES A STRONG INVERSION
AT 850MB KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED IN BELOW THIS LAYER. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND CURRENT STRAOTCU DECK IN PLACE...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO WARM MUCH TODAY AND ERODE THE
INVERSION. THUS...ANTICIPATE CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WAA
BEGINS TO AID THE EROSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN LOCATIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES
FORECAST (SINCE MODELS ARE EXPECTING SUN) AND GO NEAR GUIDANCE
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL JUST KEEP SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE...BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO DOMINATE THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR LOW IS
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE TWD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT
REMAINING COLD POOL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KMGW/KHLG THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL EARLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KZZV. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING IS NOT ANTICIPATED LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 21Z FOR KFKL AND KDUJ.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PREVALENT VFR THIS PERIOD DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
613 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DETERMINING WHEN CLOUDS WILL
GO AWAY.
850MB COLD POOL DID NOT ALLOW MUCH CLEARING YESTERDAY...AND EROSION
PROCESS CONTINUES TO BE VERY SLOW AND MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF PITTSBURGH. NAM/GFS SHOW THIS EROSION HAPPENING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT RAP SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINING ALL DAY.
CONSIDERING ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO OPTIMISTIC YESTERDAY...WILL
STICK WITH PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE
IN CLOUD COVER UNTIL EVENING. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN LOCATIONS WITH
CLOUDY SKIES FORECAST (SINCE MODELS ARE EXPECTING SUN) AND GO NEAR
GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL JUST KEEP SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE...BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO DOMINATE THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR LOW IS
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE TWD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT
REMAINING COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. MOST
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN IN VFR RANGE EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT KAGC KFKL AND
KDUJ.
EDGE OF STRATOCUMULUS APPEARS CORRELATED WITH H8 -4C CIRCULAR
ISOTHERM. USED THIS COLD POOL IDEA COUPLED WITH NAM MODEL PROFILES
AND GFS LAMP TO PROJECT WHEN CLEARING WILL REACH REMAINING TAF
SITES. CLEARING COULD OCCUR BY 15Z FOR KPIT AREA...BUT BE DELAYED
UNTIL PERHAPS 18Z AT KLBE AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL 20Z-23Z FOR KFKL
AND KDUJ.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PREVALENT VFR THIS PERIOD DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
328 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DETERMINING WHEN CLOUDS WILL
GO AWAY. 850MB COLD POOL DIDN/T ALLOW MUCH CLEARING YESTERDAY...AND
EROSION PROCESS IS VERY SLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. NAM/GFS SHOW THIS EROSION HAPPENING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT RAP SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINING ALL DAY.
CONSIDERING ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO OPTIMISTIC YESTERDAY...WILL STICK
WITH PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE IN CLOUD
COVER UNTIL EVENING. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN LOCATIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES
FORECAST (SINCE MODELS ARE EXPECTING SUN) AND GO NEAR GUIDANCE
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL JUST KEEP SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE...BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO DOMINATE THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR LOW IS
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE TWD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT
REMAINING COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY. MOST CEILINGS HAVE BEEN IN VFR RANGE EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT KFKL
AND KDUJ.
EDGE OF STRATOCUMULUS APPEARS CORRELATED WITH H8 -8C CIRCULAR ISOTHERM.
USED THIS COLD POOL IDEA COUPLED WITH NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS
LAMP TO PROJECT WHEN CLEARING WILL REACH REMAINING TAF SITES.
CLEARING COULD BE AS EARLY AS 08Z-10Z FOR PLACES LIKE KMGW AND
KPIT...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 20Z-22Z FOR KFKL AND KDUJ.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PREVALENT VFR THIS PERIOD DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
241 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH THE GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE NOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWED
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S....WITH A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. THE ZONAL FLOW HAS HELPED TO SPREAD WARMER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...REFLECTED BY THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING 850MB TEMP WHICH
CLIMBED FROM -13C AT 00Z TO -6C AT 12Z. EVEN WARMER AIR WAS PRESENT
TO THE WEST AT BIS AND ABR WHICH WERE AROUND -1C. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT...FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND DRY
AIR SHOWN TOO ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 30S AFTER A CHILLY DAY YESTERDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED A MASS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA....DOWNSTREAM OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES IN THE PLAINS. RADAR IMAGERY EVEN HAS SOME LIGHT DBZ
ECHOES BUT ARE ALL JUST VIRGA DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CHICAGO TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO TO PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS
SLATED TO CROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK...BEST UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION STAYS
OFF TO OUR NORTH. WE DO HAVE A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...AND
285-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT PLOTS REFLECT THAT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LIFT.
IF THERE IS ANY JUXTAPOSITION OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALONG A
STRETCH BETWEEN RED WING AND TAYLOR COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MOST 13.12Z MODEL QPF OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE 13.15Z SREF MEAN SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST LIKE WE HAD GOING...BUT
THE 13.12Z GEM REGIONAL DOES HAVE LIGHT QPF. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
SUGGESTION FROM THE MODELS TO HAVE AT LEAST A FLURRY MENTION.
NOTE...THOUGH...THERE IS A WARM LAYER AROUND 2000 FT WHICH COULD
MELT THE FLURRIES INTO SPRINKLES. WET-BULBING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WOULD NOT BE APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE SPRINKLES TO FREEZE IF THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CANNOT CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. OUTSIDE OF THIS VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
PROGGED TO OCCUR WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS...BUT THE SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FOR THEM IN WISCONSIN COULD
ALLOW THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S BEFORE
CLIMBING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD BE NEAR 30 FOR LOWS. WARMER
850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY OF 0-2C COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
YIELD WARMER HIGHS AS WELL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED
REASONABLE...YIELDING MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS DEPICT A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER...TO DROP DOWN INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE
HEADS UP INTO HUDSON BAY BY LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE IS
FAR FROM US...THERE IS A WEAKER SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SHORTWAVE
THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE AT THE SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...THERE IS A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN IN PLACE WITH AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT
FIELDS THIS TIME DO NOT DEPICT ANY LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER REMAINS DRY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS...THE DRY
FORECAST REMAINS. ALSO SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...THERE IS A PERIOD OF
PARTIAL CLEARING WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COME
IN TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. THUS...SOME SITES IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN AGAIN COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S BEFORE CLIMBING WITH
THE CLOUD INCREASE. LOWER TO MID 30S LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL
ELSEWHERE. SOME AFTERNOON SUN ON THURSDAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE 0-2C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS OF
STRENGTHENING UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA IS ENCOMPASSED BY A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. CLEARING SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING TO NEAR ONE THIRD OF AN INCH AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS...STAYED
TOWARDS THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WHICH COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S. SUNNY SKIES
ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SHOULD
LEAD TO A DECENT TEMPERATURE RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE...WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPS EXIST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
241 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
13.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGING PRETTY MUCH DOMINATING THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEEP EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND SOME WEAK
SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SETUP SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FROM FRIDAY JUST
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 2C EAST TO 4C WEST
RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER WISCONSIN
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR QUICK TEMPERATURE DROPS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK....THERE ARE ISSUES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP WITH
THE HANDLING OF THAT DEEP EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. ALL MODELS HAVE THE
TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON MONDAY...BUT THE 13.06Z/12Z GFS DRIVE MUCH
OF IT INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AS A BROAD TROUGH. COMPARE THIS TO THE
13.00Z ECMWF AND 13.12Z CANADIAN WHICH ARE MORE LIFT A LOT UP INTO
CANADA WHICH RESULTS IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. INTERESTINGLY...THE
NEW 13.12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO. GIVEN THE
ECMWF TREND...HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE IN THE GFS/ECMWF DIRECTION.
THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT US FROM THE
PLAINS...WITH VARYING INTENSITY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THAT UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN
AHEAD OF IT...THUS HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR SOUTH OF I-90
MONDAY NIGHT AND AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY. THE GENERAL WARM AIRMASS
SHOULD KEEP THE TYPE AS RAIN. REGARDING TEMPS...850MB TEMPS HOLD IN
THE 2-4C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS STILL IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...WITH THE MODEL TREND ON THE EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE HANGING AROUND THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION THUS LOOKS ON TAP...WITH EITHER RAIN OR
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THE TYPE. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS
THINGS IRON THEMSELVES OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...
1105 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS DEPICTS A
BAND OF MOSTLY 8-10 KFT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. RH FIELDS
AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...AND
PCPN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE SFC. SOME INDICATION VIA
LATEST OBS OF A SMATTERING OF LIGHT PCPN THOUGH...BUT TRENDS WOULD
KEEP IT WELL NORTH OF KRST/KLSE...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST HRRR.
WILL KEEP KRST/KLSE TAFS WITH VFR MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO EXIT EAST BY MID MORNING ON WED...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. COULD HAVE SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS WED THANKS TO
MIXING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
241 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WITH A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE DAKOTAS...A
SHORTWAVE OVER NEVADA...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AS WELL AS OVER INDIANA. THE FORECAST
AREA LIES IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE LATTER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 0.17 INCHES AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C OR
MORE THROUGHOUT. THE SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED AT THE SURFACE BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH STRETCHES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED THEN WITH THIS
RIDGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TO THE WEST...LITTLE IS GOING ON WITH THE SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGING SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE PUSHING
EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS SETUP PLACES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...TYPICALLY GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION...THE EXTENSIVE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR PRESENT WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. IN FACT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLOUD COVER BESIDES SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -2C NORTH TO +2C
SOUTH AT 18Z TODAY...ABOUT 3 TO 5C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THUS...
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM
NEAR RAPID CITY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEVADA SHORTWAVE LIFTING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NOTE THAT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF
WISCONSIN COULD GET CHILLY...SINCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES
LONGER TO RAMP UP THERE. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH TEMPERATURE SITUATIONS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE CURRENT NEVADA
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE FLOW AND LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
KEEPING PRESSURES LOW ON THE LEE SIDE WHILE THE CURRENT HIGH
PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP. FORECAST 925MB WINDS ARE 25-30KT ON
SATURDAY AND WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN UNTIL SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE DAY...SOME MIXING DOWN OF THOSE HIGHER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTS OF 20-25KT SEEMS LIKELY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...
925MB READINGS ARE 4-6C AT 18Z...WHICH SHOULD PUT MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 50S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING/THICKENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT PLOTS ON THE 295-300K SURFACES SHOW WEAK LIFT FROM
650-780MB CENTERED MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW 800MB TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ONLY WEAK LIFT EXPECTED. WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 12Z
SUNDAY ALL MODELS HAVE LIFT TOWARDS THE THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AREA BY
00Z MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND IT IN THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WEAK
RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 4-7C RANGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
MORE SUN TO APPROACH 60F. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
NOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO COME UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO
HAVE A BETTER TAP INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THUS AT A MINIMUM
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY IT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST...
FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND 700MB ON THE 300K SURFACE AND BETWEEN 06-12Z
MONDAY. AS SUCH...MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND EVEN THE
16.00Z NAM KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION EVEN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR NOW THERE REMAINS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
PERSISTING AND CLOUDS AROUND...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR MID-NOVEMBER
IS ON TAP...AND AGAIN FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
OVERALL...REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE PATTERNS AMONGST 16.00Z GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN FEATURES THE PLAINS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LIFTING UP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROUGH. NOTE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...THUS THE LOW
CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THUS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THEN. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES FLOWS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AIR IS CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES OF 1.5 ABOVE NORMAL. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER
ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE. THESE MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED IN FUTURE RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT...THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH WHAT HAPPENS IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
15.12Z/16.00Z ECMWF ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF A NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TROUGH AND TRACKS IT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THIS SITUATION ALLOWS FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THANKSGIVING...THOUGH THE TRUE COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN DURING THE NIGHT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16.00Z GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 16.00Z CANADIAN/UKMET PREFER TO
HOLD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH SEEN ON WEDNESDAY WOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES. EITHER SOLUTION HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO A
DRY FORECAST IS STILL ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
1059 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN/LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN FINALLY THE
SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
651 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY. A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 OR INTO THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME RAIN DURING THE MID
PORTION OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
THE QUIET PATTERN IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE PROBABLY FOG
POTENTIAL AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOST SITES HAVE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO LIGHT FOG THIS
MORNING. MOST SITES ARE REMAINING ABOVE 3 MILES. A COUPLE OF SITES
HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO TRUE FOG BELOW A MILE. SO FAR...THIS SEEMS
ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A MENTION IN THE ZONES WILL SUFFICE.
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN HAS SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT THIS
MORNING. LIKELY AIDING THE CAUSE FOR THESE CLOUDS IS SOME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 10-11C THIS MORNING AND A SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON. THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
HEADING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON SAT. THIS OCCURS AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN LIKE THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN GETS
BOTTLE NECKED. WE MAY SEE A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE 50S FOR SAT AND SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SLOWLY WARMING DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE IS A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT
IT.
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING
SINCE THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THAT TIME FRAME IS EXCELLENT FROM MODEL
TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER MODEL CONTINUITY BREAKS DOWN
SERIOUSLY AFTER THANKSGIVING BUT SINCE WE ONLY ARE FORECASTING OUT
TO THANKSGIVING WE ARE GOOD! WE WILL ADDRESS THIS ISSUE IN LATER
DISCUSSIONS.
AS NOTED YESTERDAY THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME YEAR. HAVING SO MANY DAYS IN NOVEMBER
WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS A LESS THAN 1 IN 10 SORT OF
EVENT.
ALSO AS NOTED YESTERDAY THE PROBLEM IS RELATED TO BLOCKING AT HIGH
LATITUDES. NAMELY THE UPPER HIGH...THAT AT 00Z FRIDAY... WAS NEAR
178E AND 73N. IT IS CAUSING THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET TO
STAY NORTH OF 65N AROUND THE HEMISPHERE. THUS LOCKING THE TRULY
WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WELL NORTH OF HERE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PRIMARY POLAR JET IS STAYING NEAR THE CANADIAN BOARDER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. MEANWHILE THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IS DOWN NEAR
THE GULF COAST AND WILL LIKELY STAY THERE UNTIL THANKSGIVING. SO...
UNTIL THAT BLOCKING UPPER HIGH MOVES OUT OF THE WAY THIS OVERALL
MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE HERE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.
ENJOY THIS MILD WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN....
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
LARGELY MVFR VSBY PREVAILED AT 11Z THIS MORNING. MKG AND AZO ARE
MARGINALLY IFR (2 MILES VSBY). THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS FROM STRATUS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE ROUTE 10 AREA HEADING
SOUTH WITH TIME TO0.
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS BEING FORECAST (WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH
5000 FT AGL THROUGH SAT NIGHT) AND THE FEEBLE LATE NOVEMBER
SUNSHINE NOT HELPING OUR MIXING PROCESS MUCH I WOULD EXPECT T0
SEE HAZE CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING AFTER THE LIGHT FOG BURNS OFF
AFTER SUNRISE. WE MAY HAVE MORE FOG ISSUES TONIGHT SINCE ONCE
AGAIN WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SO THERE IS NOTHING TO MIX OUT THE AIR
OVER US. WHILE IT IS TRUE A FRONT TRIES TO COME TROUGH TODAY IT IS
"BRIDGED" WHICH MEANS IT DISSIPATES SO NOT MUCH HELP THERE.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE STRATUS DECK MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO MIX THIS OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SO I CONTINUED THE SAME IDEA THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.
THAT IS TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO MKG BY LATE MORNING AND TEMPO GROUP
IN THE GRR TAFS INTO MID AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE UP NORTH OF
WHITEHALL THIS MORNING. A DECENT N-NE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS TODAY UP NORTH. BEYOND THAT...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...AND ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEK WILL
ALLOW THE AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE RIVER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO DROP.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
544 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WITH A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE DAKOTAS...A
SHORTWAVE OVER NEVADA...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AS WELL AS OVER INDIANA. THE FORECAST
AREA LIES IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE LATTER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 0.17 INCHES AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C OR
MORE THROUGHOUT. THE SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED AT THE SURFACE BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH STRETCHES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED THEN WITH THIS
RIDGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TO THE WEST...LITTLE IS GOING ON WITH THE SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGING SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE PUSHING
EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS SETUP PLACES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...TYPICALLY GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION...THE EXTENSIVE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR PRESENT WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. IN FACT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLOUD COVER BESIDES SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -2C NORTH TO +2C
SOUTH AT 18Z TODAY...ABOUT 3 TO 5C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THUS...
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM
NEAR RAPID CITY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEVADA SHORTWAVE LIFTING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NOTE THAT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF
WISCONSIN COULD GET CHILLY...SINCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES
LONGER TO RAMP UP THERE. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH TEMPERATURE SITUATIONS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE CURRENT NEVADA
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE FLOW AND LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
KEEPING PRESSURES LOW ON THE LEE SIDE WHILE THE CURRENT HIGH
PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP. FORECAST 925MB WINDS ARE 25-30KT ON
SATURDAY AND WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN UNTIL SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE DAY...SOME MIXING DOWN OF THOSE HIGHER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTS OF 20-25KT SEEMS LIKELY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...
925MB READINGS ARE 4-6C AT 18Z...WHICH SHOULD PUT MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 50S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING/THICKENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT PLOTS ON THE 295-300K SURFACES SHOW WEAK LIFT FROM
650-780MB CENTERED MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW 800MB TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ONLY WEAK LIFT EXPECTED. WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 12Z
SUNDAY ALL MODELS HAVE LIFT TOWARDS THE THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AREA BY
00Z MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND IT IN THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WEAK
RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 4-7C RANGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
MORE SUN TO APPROACH 60F. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
NOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO COME UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO
HAVE A BETTER TAP INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THUS AT A MINIMUM
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY IT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST...
FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND 700MB ON THE 300K SURFACE AND BETWEEN 06-12Z
MONDAY. AS SUCH...MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND EVEN THE
16.00Z NAM KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION EVEN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR NOW THERE REMAINS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
PERSISTING AND CLOUDS AROUND...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR MID-NOVEMBER
IS ON TAP...AND AGAIN FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
OVERALL...REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE PATTERNS AMONGST 16.00Z GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN FEATURES THE PLAINS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LIFTING UP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROUGH. NOTE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...THUS THE LOW
CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THUS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THEN. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES FLOWS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AIR IS CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES OF 1.5 ABOVE NORMAL. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER
ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE. THESE MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED IN FUTURE RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT...THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH WHAT HAPPENS IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
15.12Z/16.00Z ECMWF ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF A NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TROUGH AND TRACKS IT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THIS SITUATION ALLOWS FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THANKSGIVING...THOUGH THE TRUE COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN DURING THE NIGHT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16.00Z GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 16.00Z CANADIAN/UKMET PREFER TO
HOLD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH SEEN ON WEDNESDAY WOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES. EITHER SOLUTION HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO A
DRY FORECAST IS STILL ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
528 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST BY MID
MORNING AND SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.
THE 16.00Z TRIES TO BRING SOME 925 MB MOISTURE INTO KLSE AROUND
16.12Z. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO BE ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND BOTH THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT
THIS. AS A RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE NAM/WRF WHICH
KEEPS CLEAR SKIES AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH 17.12Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
253 PM PST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST PACIFIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH TWO
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
THE NORM...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. PARTIAL CLEARING AND WARM WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TONIGHT...THE RAP AND
NAM12 ARE PROGGING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM
EUREKA TO FALLON. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY AS A WEAKENING 500MB TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FEATURE IS
DYNAMICALLY WEAK...BUT HAS PWAT VALUES PUSHING OVER .50" TO WORK
WITH...THUS FEELING HUMBOLDT COUNTY COULD PICK UP .10-.30" OF
RAIN TOMORROW WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EXPECTED TO GET
SNOWFALL. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE
REMAINING PART OF THE CWA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A STRONGER
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH IN FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AMPLE ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START OUT HIGH ABOVE 7500K ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DROPPING
FROM WEST TO EAST DOWN TO 6000K ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BURST
OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER PASSES OF I-80...MOUNTAIN CITY
HIGHWAY...AND U.S. 93...BUT FEEL AIR TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL LIMIT THE IMPACTS AND NOT THINKING
ANY WWA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MAJOR TRAVEL CORRIDORS...BUT
ZONE 034 COULD NEED AN ADVISORY WITH 4-6" OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
EAST HUMBOLDT`S & RUBY MOUNTAINS.
500MB SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS WARM BACK UP INTO
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. SOME MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH COMES ONSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH WHILE
THE GFS DIGS IT FURTHER SOUTH. IN THE FORECAST GRIDS WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS WITH 15-30 POPS FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTH.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
95/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
153 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
153 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
STRATUS ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE AN IMMEDIATE CONCERN
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
MILDER PATTERN...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES ENTERING THE PICTURE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
SURFACE MAP HAS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO EASTERN MN/WESTERN IA. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NORTHEAST WIND FETCH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
BROUGHT AREAS OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THANKS TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.
16.12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM..
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING FOR AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NAM/RAP IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COOLING/SATURATION IN THE LOWEST 0.5KM AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. QUESTION WILL BE
HOW EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE. BESIDES THE NAM/RAP
SHOWING FAIRLY SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 0.5KM...3 OUT OF 4
MESO-WRF MODELS DEPICTING CIG HEIGHT/VIS INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUD/FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION. NOT CONFIDENT HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET. THINKING THERE MAY BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
DENSER FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE...BUT THINKING 3-5SM SHOULD
BE THE RULE. MODELS THEN SHOW THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/LOW CLOUD
ADVECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AROUND DAWN WITH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MODERATING/MILDER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. NAM/GFS SHOWING
925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM 5-7C ON SATURDAY...INTO THE 6-9C
RANGE ON SUNDAY. SOME ALTOCUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FROM TIME TO TIME
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO HINDER WARMING DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THIS AND
WARMING 925MB TEMPERATURES...PLAN ON HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE AREA. FORCING IS NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT AND NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...IT WILL COME DOWN TO
HOW MUCH THE COLUMN GETS SATURATED GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING. THE
GFS...MORE THAN THE NAM...SHOWING FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND LEVEL OF SATURATION IN QUESTION...WILL KEEP
RAIN PROBABILITIES ON THE LOW SIDE AROUND 30 PERCENT...CENTERED ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
153 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
16.12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE MILD TREND FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYS UP IN CANADA. SOME
DIFFERENCE ARISE ON WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH
THIS PASSAGE TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. EITHER WAY AS MENTIONED...
THIS FRONT APPEARS O HAVE A DRY PASSAGE WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS THEN HAVE DIFFERENCES
RESOLVING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF SHOW A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAK TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING ALREADY WHEREAS THE GFS SHOW A MUCH MORE
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. MORE WEIGHT PUT INTO THE
ECMWF AT THIS POINT WITH DRY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE AS STATED
EARLIER...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1125 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE TAF
SITES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS DEPICTED IN THE
0-1KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS FROM THE 16.12Z RAP REMAINS EAST OF
KLSE. THUS HAVE KEPT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. WITH
THE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ARE LIKELY BEFORE 18Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
153 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WITH A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE DAKOTAS...A
SHORTWAVE OVER NEVADA...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AS WELL AS OVER INDIANA. THE FORECAST
AREA LIES IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE LATTER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 0.17 INCHES AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C OR
MORE THROUGHOUT. THE SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED AT THE SURFACE BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH STRETCHES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED THEN WITH THIS
RIDGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TO THE WEST...LITTLE IS GOING ON WITH THE SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGING SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE PUSHING
EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS SETUP PLACES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...TYPICALLY GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION...THE EXTENSIVE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR PRESENT WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. IN FACT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLOUD COVER BESIDES SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -2C NORTH TO +2C
SOUTH AT 18Z TODAY...ABOUT 3 TO 5C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THUS...
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM
NEAR RAPID CITY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEVADA SHORTWAVE LIFTING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NOTE THAT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF
WISCONSIN COULD GET CHILLY...SINCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES
LONGER TO RAMP UP THERE. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH TEMPERATURE SITUATIONS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE CURRENT NEVADA
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE FLOW AND LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
KEEPING PRESSURES LOW ON THE LEE SIDE WHILE THE CURRENT HIGH
PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP. FORECAST 925MB WINDS ARE 25-30KT ON
SATURDAY AND WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN UNTIL SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE DAY...SOME MIXING DOWN OF THOSE HIGHER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTS OF 20-25KT SEEMS LIKELY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...
925MB READINGS ARE 4-6C AT 18Z...WHICH SHOULD PUT MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 50S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING/THICKENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT PLOTS ON THE 295-300K SURFACES SHOW WEAK LIFT FROM
650-780MB CENTERED MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW 800MB TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ONLY WEAK LIFT EXPECTED. WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 12Z
SUNDAY ALL MODELS HAVE LIFT TOWARDS THE THUNDER BAY ONTARIO AREA BY
00Z MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND IT IN THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WEAK
RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 4-7C RANGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
MORE SUN TO APPROACH 60F. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
NOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO COME UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO
HAVE A BETTER TAP INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THUS AT A MINIMUM
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY IT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST...
FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND 700MB ON THE 300K SURFACE AND BETWEEN 06-12Z
MONDAY. AS SUCH...MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND EVEN THE
16.00Z NAM KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION EVEN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR NOW THERE REMAINS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
PERSISTING AND CLOUDS AROUND...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR MID-NOVEMBER
IS ON TAP...AND AGAIN FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
OVERALL...REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE PATTERNS AMONGST 16.00Z GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN FEATURES THE PLAINS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LIFTING UP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROUGH. NOTE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...THUS THE LOW
CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THUS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THEN. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES FLOWS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AIR IS CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES OF 1.5 ABOVE NORMAL. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER
ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE. THESE MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED IN FUTURE RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT...THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH WHAT HAPPENS IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
15.12Z/16.00Z ECMWF ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF A NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TROUGH AND TRACKS IT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THIS SITUATION ALLOWS FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THANKSGIVING...THOUGH THE TRUE COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN DURING THE NIGHT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16.00Z GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 16.00Z CANADIAN/UKMET PREFER TO
HOLD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH SEEN ON WEDNESDAY WOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES. EITHER SOLUTION HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO A
DRY FORECAST IS STILL ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1125 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE TAF
SITES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS DEPICTED IN THE
0-1KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS FROM THE 16.12Z RAP REMAINS EAST OF
KLSE. THUS HAVE KEPT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. WITH
THE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ARE LIKELY BEFORE 18Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING