Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/15/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
934 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
.UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AREA. WEB CAMS
SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES...BUT HARD TO VERIFY. RADAR SHOWING SOME
RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY...BUT SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS
THERE NOT INDICATING ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING GROUND. WAVE TO
EXIT AREA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS
WAKE. LATEST RUC AND NAM HOLD ONTO MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH
LOOKING OVERDONE ACROSS PLAINS. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS STILL SEEM
ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS WELD AND MORGAN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. MAY END UP TWEAKING THE
VALUES AT THE LAST MINUTE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG SURFACE INVERSION
PERSISTS. WINDS LOOKING RESONABLE...PERHAPS A BIT MORE WIND NEEDED
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS TRENDING TOWARD NORTHWEST ACROSS AREA
AIRPORTS...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KTS. LATEST RUC INDICATING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT BY 17Z CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 00Z. OVERALL
CURRENT TAF TRENDS SEEM ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WOULD BE TO INCLUDE
A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT DIA IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME WITH SPEEDS
BELOW 8 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012/
SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE A
FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE MODELS...SO WE MAY SEE THE HIGH CLOUD
DECK CLEARING DENVER LATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS JUST
ABOVE MOUNTAINTOP BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...SO SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER WEST OF THE DIVIDE THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL HANG ON TO THE ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN ZONE 31 AS
THESE CLOUDS SKIM OVER THE RIDGES. WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A TENDENCY TOWARD WIND ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND NORTH THIS MORNING...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STILL
BE PRETTY LIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION. PROBABLY JUST LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE WAVE WASHES OUT. I DID WARM TEMPERATURES
IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS A LITTLE IN LIGHT OF YESTERDAYS HIGHS
AND EXPECTED WARMING. PRETTY WELL LEFT THE PLAINS ALONE...HARD TO
TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT ANY NORTH WINDS WILL HAVE IN THE DENVER AREA
BUT LEFT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT AROUND DIA AND
WARMER NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO RETURN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER JET STREAK PASSES NORTH OF US. WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT AND A LITTLE MORE FLOW WILL LIKELY ALSO PRODUCE A MOUNTAIN
WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO PENETRATE THE
INVERSION HOWEVER...MAYBE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS AT
TIMES ON THE INTERFACE.
LONG TERM...MODELS KEEP THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A VERY
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO GRAZE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES DUE
WESTERLY. FOR THE MOST PART...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE
CWA IS NEUTRAL THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND
WIND FIELDS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE THURSDAY. BY LATE
DAY...SOUTHEASTERLIES COVER THE PLAINS. FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS PROGGED THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECAILLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE PLAINS. FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS AMOUNTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS MUCH OF THE FOUR PERIODS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING MORE THAN THE NAM. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA ON THE QPF FIELDS MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION IS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE A TINY BIT IS PROGGED
OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER. WILL GO WITH NO POPS THIS TIME
AROUND. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE
1.5-3.0 C WARNER THAN TODAY`S. THURSDAY HIGHS COOL OFF A TAD...1-3
C FROM WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MODELS MAINLY KEEP FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
CWA. THERE MAY BE A PIDDLY UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...OR NOT. WILL LEAVE SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS GOING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT DIRECTION BUT EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AROUND MIDDAY. BACK TO SOUTH/WEST DRAINAGE WINDS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
551 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST - TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
21Z RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS CAUSED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 MPH...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF THE WEST THAN
WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
JL
LONG TERM - THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL SEE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM
THROUGH A MOISTURE STARVED REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED
TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY IN A ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AND MERGE
WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS
WILL BE A DEEPER SYSTEM...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE TWO WAVES MERGE AND STRENGTHEN...EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT TOT HE WEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER 19Z AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
316 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO -7C TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA.
A NORTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT HAVE PROVIDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A FEW FLURRIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH A HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY 06Z WED. THIS BRING AN END TO
CAA...AS WAA AT 850MB RETURNS WITH THE RIDGE. RIDGING WILL ALLOW
FOR CLOUD COVERAGE TO BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLEARING/RETREATING OF
STRATOCUMULUS. LOCATIONS WHERE CLEARING OCCURS WILL HAVE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE A BIT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WITH THIS IN MIND...LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN EASTERN OHIO
AND THE RIDGES OF WV/MD TO THE MID 20S IN WESTERN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ORIGINAL SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MOVING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EARLY STRATOCUMULUS WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
AS DRIER AND WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BRINGING
CIRRUS TO THE THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND 2-3C ON WEDNESDAY AND LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS LITTLE VARIATION BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTED MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HPC
PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATUS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION
INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH. FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO AND AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH STRATOCU APPEARS MORE
DIURNAL ON VIS SAT PIX AND SHOULD BE EASIER TO MIX OUT THIS EVENING.
HAVE KEPT VFR BKN CIGS IN TERMINALS FROM 00Z AT ZZV TO 04Z AT KDUJ.
SKIES SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
EAST. MAINLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN
NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THIS PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...RSMITH
AVIATION...RSMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1144 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND INCREASED SUNSHINE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO -4C TO -8C ACROSS THE AREA.
850MB FLOW AT 280-290 DEGREES OFF OF LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT HAVE PROVIDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE
PITTSBURGH METRO. SOUTHWARD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A COOL...WESTERLY 850MB
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALLOWING FOR CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTHWARD. HRRR
SUPPORTS A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 5000FT WILL LIMIT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PREVENT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WITH
CAA ONGOING AND CLOUD COVERAGE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH A HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY 06Z WED. THIS BRING AN END TO
CAA...AS WAA AT 850MB RETURNS WITH RIDGING. RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWS
WELL INTO THE 20S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A GENERAL LACK
OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A STORM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING THE
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE STRATOCU WAS BEING DEPLETED BY
DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON WESTERLY FLOW, BUT COLDER 850MB TEMPS
HELPING CU TO FILL BACK IN. OVERALL VFR CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR ACROSS
THE NORTH.
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
BY TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT NO MORE THAN 10 KTS
TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THIS PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1052 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND INCREASED SUNSHINE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO -4C TO -8C ACROSS THE AREA.
850MB FLOW AT 280-290 DEGREES OFF OF LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT HAVE PROVIDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE
PITTSBURGH METRO. SOUTHWARD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A COOL...WESTERLY 850MB
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTHWARD. HRRR
SUPPORTS A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 5000FT WILL LIMIT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PREVENT SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. WITH CAA ONGOING AND CLOUD COVERAGE...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH A HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY 06Z WED. THIS BRING AN END TO
CAA...AS WAA AT 850MB RETURNS WITH RIDGING. RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWS
WELL INTO THE 20S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A GENERAL LACK
OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A STORM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING THE
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE STRATOCU WAS BEING DEPLETED BY
DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON WESTERLY FLOW, BUT COLDER 850MB TEMPS
HELPING CU TO FILL BACK IN. OVERALL VFR CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR ACROSS
THE NORTH.
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
BY TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT NO MORE THAN 10 KTS
TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THIS PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
721 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY MODERATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR MORE CLOUDS THIS
MORNING PITTSBURGH AND NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGES. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WINDS WILL GET A BIT OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY...ENOUGH THAT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE TAPPED FROM LAKE ERIE.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...THINK THAT ONLY THE VERY
NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. EVEN
WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND MUCH
OF THE DAY NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. WITH MODELS APPEARING TO
BE A BIT LOW WITH CLOUD COVER...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS ALREADY 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
BY TONIGHT SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS REGION CUTTING OFF FLOW
FROM LAKE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BRINGING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A GENERAL LACK
OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A STORM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING THE
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RAP AND
NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CAN LINGER ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. COVERAGE WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED
AND BROKEN WITH CEILINGS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE.
THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE POST
SYSTEM COLD POOL LAKE-ENHANCED INSTABILITY CAN RENEW MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KFKL AND KDUJ
THROUGH AFTERNOON.
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
BY TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT NO MORE THAN 10 KTS
TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THIS PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
615 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY MODERATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES...BUT
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST BY SUNRISE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH AND WEST OF WHEELING. WINDS WILL GET A BIT OF
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY...ENOUGH THAT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TAPPED FROM LAKE ERIE. HOWEVER...WITH LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS...THINK THAT ONLY THE VERY NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. EVEN WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY NORTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH. WITH MODELS APPEARING TO BE A BIT LOW WITH CLOUD
COVER...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...WHICH IS ALREADY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A GENERAL LACK
OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A STORM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING THE
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RAP AND
NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW POSTFRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CAN LINGER ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. COVERAGE WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED
AND BROKEN WITH CEILINGS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE.
THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE POST
SYSTEM COLD POOL LAKE-ENHANCED INSTABILITY CAN RENEW MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KFKL AND KDUJ
THROUGH AFTERNOON.
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
BY TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT NO MORE THAN 10 KTS
TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THIS PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1229 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BTWN RDG OFF THE E COAST AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA. SINCE THE FASTEST WINDS ALF ARE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPR
TROF...THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL THIS TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO
THE NE. IN FACT...12Z-24Z H5 HGT RISES IN EXCESS OF 100M AND EVEN
150M OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE UPR TROF.
FAIRLY SHARP LLVL CYC WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR TROF
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO A SHARP SFC RDG AXIS OVER MN UNDER THESE HGT
RISES/SUBSIDENCE. BUT QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR LINGERS PER THE 00Z
INL RAOB...SO A LO CLD OVC LINGERS ALL THE WAY W TO THE RDG AXIS.
CLOSER TO HOME...LES RESPSONSIBLE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES OF SN LINGERS
OVER THE W AS OF 06Z...WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED REFLECTIVITIES FROM
ONTAONGAON TOWARD THE HURON MTNS WHERE SHARP LLVL CNVGC BTWN LARGER
SCALE WNW FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND A MORE WSW LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF
NW WI THAT IS INFLUENCING THE AREA CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. LATEST
TRENDS SHOW REFLECTIVITIES TENDING TO WEAKEN TO THE W...A SIGN THE
STRONG SUBIDENCE MOVING IN FM THE W MIGHT BE HAVING AN IMPACT. AS
FCST ISSUANCE APRCHS...THE RADAR REFLECTIVIES ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY TO THE W. THE DOMINANT LES BAND THAT WAS OVER ERN LK SUP HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AS OF 09Z BUT HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT. WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OF UNMODIFIED AIR...SKIES OVER THE SCENTRAL ARE
MOCLR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES
AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVY OVER THE ERN CWA NEAR LK SUP THIS MRNG.
TODAY...AREA OF SHARP HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE TO
THE W ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE UPR GRT LKS AS TROF WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...LEAVING A ZONAL FLOW ALF OVER THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH ARRIVAL OF SHARP ACYC FLOW/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVRN/DRYING IN THE DGZ...THINK LES WL QUICKLY DIMINISH W-E. GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE W...OPTED TO CANX ADVY THAT WAS GOING TO
EXPIRE AT 12Z ANYWAY. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF -FZDZ GIVEN SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10F EVEN THOUGH LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL BE CONFINED
BLO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH THE BANDS COMING ASHORE OVER THE E MIGHT DROP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SN IN A FEW HRS EARLY THIS MRNG... LATEST FCST
PROFILE FM THE LOCAL WRF-ARW FOR GRAND MARAIS IN ALGER COUNTY SHOWS
INVRN BASE SINKING TO NEAR 5K FT BY 12Z WITH DRYING IN THE DGZ.
SINCE THE DOMINANT BAND HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE LES MODE WL
TREND TOWARD A MULTIPLE BAND REGIME IN THE LLVL NW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF INCOMING SFC RDG AXIS...WL ISSUE SPS TO COVER SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER SN THIS MRNG AND NOT GO WITH AN ADVY. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...
THE PROFILE OVER THE E IS FCST TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS. OTRW...LINGERING MRNG SC WL GIVE WAY TO
MOSUNNY CONDITIONS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG. IN FACT... THE
LLVL FLOW WL SHIFT TO THE SW LATER THIS AFT ONCE THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS
TO THE E.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE NGT WL START MOCLR...EXPECT INCRSG MID CLDS IN
THE PREVAILING SW FLOW BTWM DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS TO THE E AND A
LO PRES TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALF. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON
THE 285-290K SFCS /H8-7/. WITH LINGERING DRY AIR BLO THE MID LVL
MOISTENING AND ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING...EXPECT NO PCPN. EXPECT
LO TEMPS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID CLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND SPLIT ON WEDNESDAY AS
LONG TERM BEGINS. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA MOVES
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT FROM NWP
ON THE POSITION/DEPTH OF THIS RELATIVELY MINOR TROUGH. WEAK 1.5PVU
ANAMOLY AHEAD OF TROUGH ALONG WITH STEADY H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A BIT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7 MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
LGT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO WILL ONLY HAVE A
MENTION OF ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NO BIG
DEAL AT ALL. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A CLOUDY SKY LIMITING MAX TEMPS.
PRIMARY LEAD PV ANAMOLY AND 300MB JET STREAK COME ACROSS UPR LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT...MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. WORTH A MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH
ELEVATED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES TOWARD 7 C/KM. SIMILAR FCST ON THURSDAY
WITH TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND BETTER AGREEMENT ON STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT HURT CAUSE EITHER FOR POP-UP
ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE TROUGH MAKES
IT AN OVERALL LOW CHANCE OCCURRENCE AND HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT
OF THIS FCST.
TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IS TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH AS IT PROCEEDS TO SLIDE ACROSS REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. CAN REALLY SEE THIS ON THE GFS LOOKING AT
DPROG/DT OF H85 TEMPS OVER LK SUPERIOR AT 00Z FRIDAY. 00Z/12 RUN HAD
TEMPS OF -2C WHILE LATEST RUN HAS -7C. THOUGH RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF
ARE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS...THE 12Z/11 RUN SHOWED A SIMILAR COLDER
SOLUTION FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
COLDER AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT COUNT OUT THE COLDER IDEA.
MAY NOT REALLY MATTER THOUGH AS THE MARGINAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH
ON THURSDAY DIMINISHES FURTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SPIKE OF 925MB
MOISTURE ON GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCT CLOUDS COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH SOME OVER-WATER INSTABILITY. ON THE FLIP SIDE...UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING SHARPLY THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTS IN SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHING INVERSION BLO H9 BY AFTN. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY GOOD
SETUP TO SEE ANYTHING BUT SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR A TIME.
IN WAKE OF TROUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT BACK IN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS HINT AT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER INVERSION. IF THESE SIGNALS ARE
CORRECT MAY EVEN SEE SOME FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THESE SIGNALS
ARE BOGUS THEN MAX TEMPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD REACH
UPR 40S TO LOW-MID 50S WHICH IS 10-15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NIGHTTIME LOWS ABOVE NORMAL TOO WITH READINGS MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP ERODE THE CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IWD AND SAW HAVE CLEARED OUT AS OF 17Z AND SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CMX WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY
18Z AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVEL WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT -SHRA OR-SHSN COULD OCCUR...BUT LOW LEVEL DRYING
COULD KEEP THIS FROM OCCURRING. AT THIS POINT HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS
BUT KEPT CONDITIONS DRY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT EACH TAF SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
MOVES EAST WHILE SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
SMALL RISK FOR GALE GUSTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN UP TO 25
KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH COMES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
IN WAKE OF TROUGH SHIFT NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 20 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS REGION. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
616 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BTWN RDG OFF THE E COAST AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA. SINCE THE FASTEST WINDS ALF ARE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPR
TROF...THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL THIS TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO
THE NE. IN FACT...12Z-24Z H5 HGT RISES IN EXCESS OF 100M AND EVEN
150M OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE UPR TROF.
FAIRLY SHARP LLVL CYC WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR TROF
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO A SHARP SFC RDG AXIS OVER MN UNDER THESE HGT
RISES/SUBSIDENCE. BUT QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR LINGERS PER THE 00Z
INL RAOB...SO A LO CLD OVC LINGERS ALL THE WAY W TO THE RDG AXIS.
CLOSER TO HOME...LES RESPSONSIBLE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES OF SN LINGERS
OVER THE W AS OF 06Z...WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED REFLECTIVITIES FROM
ONTAONGAON TOWARD THE HURON MTNS WHERE SHARP LLVL CNVGC BTWN LARGER
SCALE WNW FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND A MORE WSW LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF
NW WI THAT IS INFLUENCING THE AREA CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. LATEST
TRENDS SHOW REFLECTIVITIES TENDING TO WEAKEN TO THE W...A SIGN THE
STRONG SUBIDENCE MOVING IN FM THE W MIGHT BE HAVING AN IMPACT. AS
FCST ISSUANCE APRCHS...THE RADAR REFLECTIVIES ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY TO THE W. THE DOMINANT LES BAND THAT WAS OVER ERN LK SUP HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AS OF 09Z BUT HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT. WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OF UNMODIFIED AIR...SKIES OVER THE SCENTRAL ARE
MOCLR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES
AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVY OVER THE ERN CWA NEAR LK SUP THIS MRNG.
TODAY...AREA OF SHARP HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE TO
THE W ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE UPR GRT LKS AS TROF WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...LEAVING A ZONAL FLOW ALF OVER THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH ARRIVAL OF SHARP ACYC FLOW/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVRN/DRYING IN THE DGZ...THINK LES WL QUICKLY DIMINISH W-E. GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE W...OPTED TO CANX ADVY THAT WAS GOING TO
EXPIRE AT 12Z ANYWAY. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF -FZDZ GIVEN SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10F EVEN THOUGH LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL BE CONFINED
BLO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH THE BANDS COMING ASHORE OVER THE E MIGHT DROP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SN IN A FEW HRS EARLY THIS MRNG... LATEST FCST
PROFILE FM THE LOCAL WRF-ARW FOR GRAND MARAIS IN ALGER COUNTY SHOWS
INVRN BASE SINKING TO NEAR 5K FT BY 12Z WITH DRYING IN THE DGZ.
SINCE THE DOMINANT BAND HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE LES MODE WL
TREND TOWARD A MULTIPLE BAND REGIME IN THE LLVL NW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF INCOMING SFC RDG AXIS...WL ISSUE SPS TO COVER SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER SN THIS MRNG AND NOT GO WITH AN ADVY. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...
THE PROFILE OVER THE E IS FCST TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS. OTRW...LINGERING MRNG SC WL GIVE WAY TO
MOSUNNY CONDITIONS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG. IN FACT... THE
LLVL FLOW WL SHIFT TO THE SW LATER THIS AFT ONCE THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS
TO THE E.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE NGT WL START MOCLR...EXPECT INCRSG MID CLDS IN
THE PREVAILING SW FLOW BTWM DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS TO THE E AND A
LO PRES TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALF. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON
THE 285-290K SFCS /H8-7/. WITH LINGERING DRY AIR BLO THE MID LVL
MOISTENING AND ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING...EXPECT NO PCPN. EXPECT
LO TEMPS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID CLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND SPLIT ON WEDNESDAY AS
LONG TERM BEGINS. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA MOVES
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT FROM NWP
ON THE POSITION/DEPTH OF THIS RELATIVELY MINOR TROUGH. WEAK 1.5PVU
ANAMOLY AHEAD OF TROUGH ALONG WITH STEADY H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A BIT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7 MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
LGT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO WILL ONLY HAVE A
MENTION OF ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NO BIG
DEAL AT ALL. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A CLOUDY SKY LIMITING MAX TEMPS.
PRIMARY LEAD PV ANAMOLY AND 300MB JET STREAK COME ACROSS UPR LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT...MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. WORTH A MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH
ELEVATED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES TOWARD 7 C/KM. SIMILAR FCST ON THURSDAY
WITH TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND BETTER AGREEMENT ON STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT HURT CAUSE EITHER FOR POP-UP
ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE TROUGH MAKES
IT AN OVERALL LOW CHANCE OCCURRENCE AND HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT
OF THIS FCST.
TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IS TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH AS IT PROCEEDS TO SLIDE ACROSS REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. CAN REALLY SEE THIS ON THE GFS LOOKING AT
DPROG/DT OF H85 TEMPS OVER LK SUPERIOR AT 00Z FRIDAY. 00Z/12 RUN HAD
TEMPS OF -2C WHILE LATEST RUN HAS -7C. THOUGH RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF
ARE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS...THE 12Z/11 RUN SHOWED A SIMILAR COLDER
SOLUTION FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
COLDER AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT COUNT OUT THE COLDER IDEA.
MAY NOT REALLY MATTER THOUGH AS THE MARGINAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH
ON THURSDAY DIMINISHES FURTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SPIKE OF 925MB
MOISTURE ON GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCT CLOUDS COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH SOME OVER-WATER INSTABILITY. ON THE FLIP SIDE...UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING SHARPLY THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTS IN SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHING INVERSION BLO H9 BY AFTN. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY GOOD
SETUP TO SEE ANYTHING BUT SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR A TIME.
IN WAKE OF TROUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT BACK IN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS HINT AT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER INVERSION. IF THESE SIGNALS ARE
CORRECT MAY EVEN SEE SOME FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THESE SIGNALS
ARE BOGUS THEN MAX TEMPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD REACH
UPR 40S TO LOW-MID 50S WHICH IS 10-15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NIGHTTIME LOWS ABOVE NORMAL TOO WITH READINGS MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
AS A HI PRES RDG MOVES IN FM MN...EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
IWD/CMX TO BREAK BY LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN. DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT
AT SAW WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THERE THRU THE WHOLE DAY. ALTHOUGH
MORE CLDS WL ARRIVE TNGT IN THE SW FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE HI
PRES RDG PASSING TO THE E...CIG HGTS WL BE VFR WITH DRY LLVL AIR
LINGERING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
MOVES EAST WHILE SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
SMALL RISK FOR GALE GUSTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN UP TO 25
KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH COMES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
IN WAKE OF TROUGH SHIFT NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 20 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS REGION. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BTWN RDG OFF THE E COAST AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA. SINCE THE FASTEST WINDS ALF ARE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPR
TROF...THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL THIS TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO
THE NE. IN FACT...12Z-24Z H5 HGT RISES IN EXCESS OF 100M AND EVEN
150M OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE UPR TROF.
FAIRLY SHARP LLVL CYC WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR TROF
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO A SHARP SFC RDG AXIS OVER MN UNDER THESE HGT
RISES/SUBSIDENCE. BUT QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR LINGERS PER THE 00Z
INL RAOB...SO A LO CLD OVC LINGERS ALL THE WAY W TO THE RDG AXIS.
CLOSER TO HOME...LES RESPSONSIBLE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES OF SN LINGERS
OVER THE W AS OF 06Z...WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED REFLECTIVITIES FROM
ONTAONGAON TOWARD THE HURON MTNS WHERE SHARP LLVL CNVGC BTWN LARGER
SCALE WNW FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND A MORE WSW LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF
NW WI THAT IS INFLUENCING THE AREA CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. LATEST
TRENDS SHOW REFLECTIVITIES TENDING TO WEAKEN TO THE W...A SIGN THE
STRONG SUBIDENCE MOVING IN FM THE W MIGHT BE HAVING AN IMPACT. AS
FCST ISSUANCE APRCHS...THE RADAR REFLECTIVIES ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY TO THE W. THE DOMINANT LES BAND THAT WAS OVER ERN LK SUP HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AS OF 09Z BUT HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT. WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OF UNMODIFIED AIR...SKIES OVER THE SCENTRAL ARE
MOCLR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES
AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVY OVER THE ERN CWA NEAR LK SUP THIS MRNG.
TODAY...AREA OF SHARP HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE TO
THE W ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE UPR GRT LKS AS TROF WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...LEAVING A ZONAL FLOW ALF OVER THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH ARRIVAL OF SHARP ACYC FLOW/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVRN/DRYING IN THE DGZ...THINK LES WL QUICKLY DIMINISH W-E. GIVEN
THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE W...OPTED TO CANX ADVY THAT WAS GOING TO
EXPIRE AT 12Z ANYWAY. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF -FZDZ GIVEN SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10F EVEN THOUGH LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL BE CONFINED
BLO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH THE BANDS COMING ASHORE OVER THE E MIGHT DROP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SN IN A FEW HRS EARLY THIS MRNG... LATEST FCST
PROFILE FM THE LOCAL WRF-ARW FOR GRAND MARAIS IN ALGER COUNTY SHOWS
INVRN BASE SINKING TO NEAR 5K FT BY 12Z WITH DRYING IN THE DGZ.
SINCE THE DOMINANT BAND HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE LES MODE WL
TREND TOWARD A MULTIPLE BAND REGIME IN THE LLVL NW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF INCOMING SFC RDG AXIS...WL ISSUE SPS TO COVER SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER SN THIS MRNG AND NOT GO WITH AN ADVY. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...
THE PROFILE OVER THE E IS FCST TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS. OTRW...LINGERING MRNG SC WL GIVE WAY TO
MOSUNNY CONDITIONS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG. IN FACT... THE
LLVL FLOW WL SHIFT TO THE SW LATER THIS AFT ONCE THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS
TO THE E.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE NGT WL START MOCLR...EXPECT INCRSG MID CLDS IN
THE PREVAILING SW FLOW BTWM DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS TO THE E AND A
LO PRES TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALF. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON
THE 285-290K SFCS /H8-7/. WITH LINGERING DRY AIR BLO THE MID LVL
MOISTENING AND ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING...EXPECT NO PCPN. EXPECT
LO TEMPS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID CLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND SPLIT ON WEDNESDAY AS
LONG TERM BEGINS. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA MOVES
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT FROM NWP
ON THE POSITION/DEPTH OF THIS RELATIVELY MINOR TROUGH. WEAK 1.5PVU
ANAMOLY AHEAD OF TROUGH ALONG WITH STEADY H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A BIT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7 MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
LGT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO WILL ONLY HAVE A
MENTION OF ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NO BIG
DEAL AT ALL. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A CLOUDY SKY LIMITING MAX TEMPS.
PRIMARY LEAD PV ANAMOLY AND 300MB JET STREAK COME ACROSS UPR LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT...MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. WORTH A MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH
ELEVATED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES TOWARD 7 C/KM. SIMILAR FCST ON THURSDAY
WITH TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND BETTER AGREEMENT ON STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT HURT CAUSE EITHER FOR POP-UP
ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE TROUGH MAKES
IT AN OVERALL LOW CHANCE OCCURRENCE AND HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT
OF THIS FCST.
TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IS TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH AS IT PROCEEDS TO SLIDE ACROSS REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. CAN REALLY SEE THIS ON THE GFS LOOKING AT
DPROG/DT OF H85 TEMPS OVER LK SUPERIOR AT 00Z FRIDAY. 00Z/12 RUN HAD
TEMPS OF -2C WHILE LATEST RUN HAS -7C. THOUGH RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF
ARE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS...THE 12Z/11 RUN SHOWED A SIMILAR COLDER
SOLUTION FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
COLDER AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT COUNT OUT THE COLDER IDEA.
MAY NOT REALLY MATTER THOUGH AS THE MARGINAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH
ON THURSDAY DIMINISHES FURTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SPIKE OF 925MB
MOISTURE ON GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCT CLOUDS COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH SOME OVER-WATER INSTABILITY. ON THE FLIP SIDE...UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING SHARPLY THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTS IN SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHING INVERSION BLO H9 BY AFTN. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY GOOD
SETUP TO SEE ANYTHING BUT SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR A TIME.
IN WAKE OF TROUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT BACK IN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS HINT AT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER INVERSION. IF THESE SIGNALS ARE
CORRECT MAY EVEN SEE SOME FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THESE SIGNALS
ARE BOGUS THEN MAX TEMPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD REACH
UPR 40S TO LOW-MID 50S WHICH IS 10-15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NIGHTTIME LOWS ABOVE NORMAL TOO WITH READINGS MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
KIWD...EXPECT MVFR LAKE CLOUDS TO LIFT BY LATE TUE MORNING AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM WRLY TO SWRLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
KCMX...BEST LES BANDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
LOOK FOR FLURRIES TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER
AIR AND RDGG WILL BE MOVING IN FM NW OF THE LAKE. SOME LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS MAY BRIEFLY BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE WINDS BACK FM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PD AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
WSW TONIGHT TO SSW ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
MOVES EAST WHILE SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
SMALL RISK FOR GALE GUSTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN UP TO 25
KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH COMES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
IN WAKE OF TROUGH SHIFT NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 20 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS REGION. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1229 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012
MAIN UPDATE CONCERN DEALS WITH HEAVIER SNOW BAND WHICH HAS REACHED
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BARAGA COUNTY THIS EVENING PER MQT
RADAR LOOP. SPOTTER REPORTS FROM NEAR PELKIE TO BARAGA HAVE COME IN
WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES THUS FAR. GIVEN THAT RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW 30 DBZ REFLECTIVITY RETURNS WITH SNOW BAND OVER NW BARAGA
COUNTY AND THAT MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS SNOW TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HRS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE BARAGA
COUNTY IN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. HEAVIER SNOW
HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH MAIN BAND NOW
SHIFTING SOUTH OVER NRN ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS RDGG MOVES IN
FM THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS FROM NEAR 8KFT TO BLO
5KFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT
WEAKENING TROF EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UNDERNEATH TROF EARLIER TODAY...12Z SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KMPX
SHOWED A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE INTERSECTION OF LAKE CONVECTION THRU THE DGZ.
SO...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MDT/HVY LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AS MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS EXPECTED...A DOMINANT LES BAND
DEVELOPED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER TODAY BTWN THE MN NORTH
SHORE AND WISCONSIN`S BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WITH MID LEVEL TROF
PASSING...WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ARE NOW VEERING MORE WRLY...
SO THIS DOMINANT LES BAND IS ADJUSTING TO THE CHANGING WIND...BUT IT
IS ALSO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...WHICH MAY BE PARTLY DUE TO
NEGATIVE DIURNAL AFFECTS. KMQT/KDLH AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA RADAR
LOCATED JUST N OF THUNDER BAY ALL INDICATE AREAS OF HEAVY LES NOW
NEARING THE WRN SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW. KDLH RADAR IS STILL SHOWING
RETURNS AS HIGH AS AROUND 12KFT...SO LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION REMAINS
DEEP WITH POCKETS OF VERY HVY SNOW. AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...SHSN
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW TODAY. HOWEVER...ONLY
WEBCAM THAT HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SHARPLY REDUCED VIS AT TIMES IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SHORE WEST OF EAGLE RIVER.
FCST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH REGARD TO LES AND HEADLINES
TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE TEMP PROFILE ARGUES FOR MDT TO
HVY SNOW AT TIMES AS MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TONIGHT. BULK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS AS WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WRN LAKE DROP S
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES BRIEFLY AS HIGH AS
2-4IN/HR. AFTER THE CONVERGENCE ZONE PASSES...WIND PARALLEL BANDS
WITH MUCH MORE VARIABLE SNOW INTENSITY WILL SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. LES WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SHARP
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL TROF (180-200M HEIGHT
RISES AT 500MB BTWN 00Z AND 12Z)...INVERSION QUICKLY DROPS TO 4-5KFT
AND CONVECTIVE LAYER BEGINS TO FALL BLO THE DGZ. GIVEN THE SHORT
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND
RATHER QUICK DIMINISHING TREND THRU THE NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED SNOW
AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. MAX AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE 4-5
INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
FARTHER S...CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SINK S AND AFFECT ONTONAGON/SRN
HOUGHTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
NEGATIVE FACTORS TAKE HOLD DURING THE NIGHT TO DIMINISH LES
INTENSITY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A CONVERGENT LOOK AS WSW
LAND BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF NW WI CONVERGE WITH WNW FLOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN MORE PERSISTENT
THOUGH WEAKENING LES ACROSS ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND
PROBABLY A SMALL PART OF GOGEBIC COUNTY N OF M-28 THRU THE NIGHT.
WILL RETAIN ADVY FOR ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES TONIGHT.
TO THE E...WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENT BAND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE NE FCST AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING WITH SHARP HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING. SO...
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MDT/HVY SNOW ON WIND
SHIFT...LES THAT ORGANIZES BEHIND TROF WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL. WILL
PAINT 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALGER COUNTY E OF MUNISING AND
NRN LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT.
LINGERING LES WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END FROM W TO E TUE. MIGHT SEE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW OVER ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTY IN THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE AS
WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LED TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND
TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE START OF SPLIT FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WHICH WILL REALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ON BY THE WEEKEND
BEHIND A WEAKER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...WHILE
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD BE PUSHING NE OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING ABOVE
H800...WITH BROAD AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE IS SOME
DRY AIR BELOW H800...BUT NOTHING TOO SUBSTANTIAL...SO THINK THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. WITH
THE BEST FORCING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT THAT AREA TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH TO COVER MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH ONLY
AN ISOLATED FLURRY OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
DELTA T VALUES AROUND 15 WOULD SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
UNDER THE SLOWLY BACKING WINDS FROM SW TO SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND
4-5KFT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THIS INVERSION COULD
WEAKEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...AS DRIER
AIR BETWEEN H875-700 AND WAA MOVES BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISHES THE CHANCES AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THIS POTENTIAL...BUT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH NAM/SREF
INDICATING INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF FOG OVER THE WEST...BUT THE
NAM HAS THINNER MID CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LEAD BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG POTENTIAL. WITH THE DIFFERENCES DIFFERENCES
IN THE MID CLOUDS...WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MID CLOUDS.
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LARGELY BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT AND
CLOUDS WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH...SPLIT FLOW
REALLY SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WHILE
THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGES OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A VERY QUIET AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO NEXT
WEEK. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING
H850 TEMPS RISING TOWARDS 1-2C THIS WEEKEND...BUT BOTH ARE
STRUGGLING TO MIX THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE. WILL GO WITH THE
MIDDLE GROUND SINCE IT IS SO FAR OUT...HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
40S...BUT IF WE CAN TAP INTO THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD EASILY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S AT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
KIWD...EXPECT MVFR LAKE CLOUDS TO LIFT BY LATE TUE MORNING AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM WRLY TO SWRLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
KCMX...BEST LES BANDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
LOOK FOR FLURRIES TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER
AIR AND RDGG WILL BE MOVING IN FM NW OF THE LAKE. SOME LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS MAY BRIEFLY BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE WINDS BACK FM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PD AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
WSW TONIGHT TO SSW ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MN WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL BRING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO 20-30KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW
20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001>004-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALL THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 PM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATO
CU ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WYOMING VALLEY. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
10 AM UPDATE...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE
CURRENT WEAK LAKE RESPONSE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO EASTERN SHORE. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH 12Z RAOBS AND RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOUT 50 MB
DEEP AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS LAYER
WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO ERODE UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
THINKING OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA. DUE TO THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TODAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR PRIMARILY NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SYR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUM OF ONLY A FEW TENTHS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ONEIDA COUNTY.
615 AM UPDATE...
HV UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE CATSKILLS THIS MRNG. AT THE
BINGHAMTON AIRPORT WE MEASURED 1.4 INCHES AND NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CATSKILLS MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 4
INCHES. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR ALONG WITH DUAL-POL
PRODUCTS AND WEBCAMS IN THE REGION SUPPORT THIS THINKING.
HV ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMPS AS THEY DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS MRNG.
HRLY POP/WX GRIDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY WELL IN LINE WITH REALITY SO
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
445 AM UPDATE...
HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN GO AWRY. JUST AS GRIDS WERE SENT, RAIN
SWITCHED OVR TO SNOW HERE AT KBGM. UPDATED GRIDS THRU 14Z TO ADD
SNOW IN AT ELEVATIONS > 1600 FT. VRY MINIMAL ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT
OVR IN THE WRN CATS MAY SEE AMNTS UPWARDS OF AN INCH BTWN NOW AND
12Z.
4 AM UPDATE... AS OF 07Z CDFNT HAS MVD THRU CWA. BULK OF THE
RAIN, AS EXPECTED, IS BHND THE FRONTAL BNDRY AS UL TROF AND ASSOC
SPEED MAX ROTATE THRU THE REGION BY 15Z. BASED ON PROGRESS OF BACK
EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF PCPN RAIN SHUD BE LOCATED OVR FAR ERN ZONES
BY 12Z AS FCST. EXPECT THIS PCPN WL SHOVE EAST OF FA BY 15Z.
WRLY FLOW BHND FNT AS WELL AS CLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LK
RESPONSE FOR A TIME THIS MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN. WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY 12Z LOCALES IN THE SRN TUG HILL
PLATEAU MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THIS MRNG BFR MIXING WITH RAIN
BY 15Z. ANY LINGERING PCPN WL LKLY BE ALL RAIN BY LATE MRNG INTO THE
AF TN HRS...WITH VRY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. THAT IS, ASSUMING
ANYTHING CAN DVLP WITH VRY LITTLE ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR AS
OF 09Z COURTESY OF LOW-LVL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE WEST.
SKIES WL GNRLY BEGIN AS MOCLDY THIS MRNG BFR CLRNG SOUTH OF THE I-88
CORRIDOR BY AFTN. SXNS WEST OF I-81 WL RMN PRTLY-MOCLDY THRU 00Z
WED. THIS WL STUNT TEMPS FM RISING TOO MUCH. ON AVG, EXPECT MAXES TO
BE SOME 20-25 DEGREES LWR THAN YDA WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE-40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN FM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH NRLY FLOW TAKING HOLD
ACRS THE REGION. THIS WL KEEP LK CLDS IN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS WINDS SWING ARND FM THE NW AT 00Z TO MORE OF A NRLY FLOW BY 06Z.
LESS OF A FETCH ACRS THE LKS WL LEAD TO MOCLDY DIMINISHING TO PCLDY
OVRNGT WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING SKC. GIVEN VARYING CLD CONDS
EXPECT THAT MIN TEMPS WL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCALES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK PLAIN.
HIPRES WL SQUAT OVR THE REGION THRU THURSDAY AND BYND. MODERATING
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLD UP FM THE
WEST ON THUR AFTN AS H5 L/WV TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST COURTESY OF UL
LOW OVR HUDSON BAY. HWVR, THIS WL LKLY HV LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON CONTINUED QUIET PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN DEPART CONSIDERABLY ON HOW TO
HANDLE LOCATION AND SIZE OF A SYSTEM HEADING UP OFFSHORE THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WHETHER WE GET ANY PERIPHERAL IMPACTS AT ALL
FROM IT. REGARDLESS...NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF ANOMOLOUSLY WARM NOR
COLD OUTBREAKS...STAYING PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY OVERALL OR
JUST A SHADE SHORT OF IT IF ANYTHING.
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...PINCHES OFF A
SMALL UPPER LOW WHICH HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
FOR US...STRONG SURFACE HIGH STAYS IN CONTROL. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND ONLY A TENUOUS AT BEST CONNECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...TO THE SHEARING OUT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR
NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING VORTICITY LOBE ALOFT DOES NOT
EVEN QUITE MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION.
AT THIS POINT...GFS AND ECMWF ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW. GFS SIMPLY OPENS IT BACK UP AND PUSHES IT WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST DOMINANT. SO WITH THE GFS...NO PRECIPITION FORESEEN WITH
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE
MAINTAINS THE UPPER LOW...AND TAKES IT UP THE COAST ONCE MEETING
THE GULF STREAM. IT HAS A GRADUAL EVOLUTION IN DEVELOPING A LARGE
IN SIZE...YET INITIALLY NOT VERY DEEP...SURFACE LOW WHICH VERY
SLOWLY SLOGS NORTHWARD AND PERHAPS RETROGRADES SOMEWHAT TO
EVENTUALLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THIS SCENARIO IF IT
WERE TO PAN OUT DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THE BIG SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH...REMAINING DOMINANT IN THE GFS...SQUEEZES
FARTHER EAST IN THE ECMWF AND ALLOWS MOISTURE/PERIPHERY OF LOW
PRESSURE TO OOZE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH THE ODD LOOK TO
ITS EVOLUTION ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW.
UNTIL THIS LARGER SCALE CONUNDRUM CAN BE RESOLVED...FOR NOW I
PLACED ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN TO
EASTERN ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK...SIMILAR TO HPC FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED COURTESY OF LAKE EFFECT AND
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. THAT BEING SAID...NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. CIGS WILL SCATTER
OUT FOR SOME AS FLOW SLACKENS WHILE VEERING FURTHER TONIGHT...YET
DEVELOP FOR OTHERS AS INVERSION COMPRESSES CLOSER TOT HE
SURFACE...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR SPECIFICS. DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
LIGHT NNE TO NE FLOW EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
VFR AND HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH SUN...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1230 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER
THAN YESTERDAY COURTESY OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 PM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATO
CU ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WYOMING VALLEY. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
10 AM UPDATE...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE
CURRENT WEAK LAKE RESPONSE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO EASTERN SHORE. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH 12Z RAOBS AND RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOUT 50 MB
DEEP AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS LAYER
WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO ERODE UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
THINKING OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA. DUE TO THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TODAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR PRIMARILY NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SYR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUM OF ONLY A FEW TENTHS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ONEIDA COUNTY.
615 AM UPDATE...
HV UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE CATSKILLS THIS MRNG. AT THE
BINGHAMTON AIRPORT WE MEASURED 1.4 INCHES AND NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CATSKILLS MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 4
INCHES. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR ALONG WITH DUAL-POL
PRODUCTS AND WEBCAMS IN THE REGION SUPPORT THIS THINKING.
HV ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMPS AS THEY DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS MRNG.
HRLY POP/WX GRIDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY WELL IN LINE WITH REALITY SO
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
445 AM UPDATE...
HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN GO AWRY. JUST AS GRIDS WERE SENT, RAIN
SWITCHED OVR TO SNOW HERE AT KBGM. UPDATED GRIDS THRU 14Z TO ADD
SNOW IN AT ELEVATIONS > 1600 FT. VRY MINIMAL ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT
OVR IN THE WRN CATS MAY SEE AMNTS UPWARDS OF AN INCH BTWN NOW AND
12Z.
4 AM UPDATE... AS OF 07Z CDFNT HAS MVD THRU CWA. BULK OF THE
RAIN, AS EXPECTED, IS BHND THE FRONTAL BNDRY AS UL TROF AND ASSOC
SPEED MAX ROTATE THRU THE REGION BY 15Z. BASED ON PROGRESS OF BACK
EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF PCPN RAIN SHUD BE LOCATED OVR FAR ERN ZONES
BY 12Z AS FCST. EXPECT THIS PCPN WL SHOVE EAST OF FA BY 15Z.
WRLY FLOW BHND FNT AS WELL AS CLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LK
RESPONSE FOR A TIME THIS MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN. WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY 12Z LOCALES IN THE SRN TUG HILL
PLATEAU MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THIS MRNG BFR MIXING WITH RAIN
BY 15Z. ANY LINGERING PCPN WL LKLY BE ALL RAIN BY LATE MRNG INTO THE
AFTN HRS...WITH VRY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. THAT IS, ASSUMING
ANYTHING CAN DVLP WITH VRY LITTLE ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR AS
OF 09Z COURTESY OF LOW-LVL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE WEST.
SKIES WL GNRLY BEGIN AS MOCLDY THIS MRNG BFR CLRNG SOUTH OF THE I-88
CORRIDOR BY AFTN. SXNS WEST OF I-81 WL RMN PRTLY-MOCLDY THRU 00Z
WED. THIS WL STUNT TEMPS FM RISING TOO MUCH. ON AVG, EXPECT MAXES TO
BE SOME 20-25 DEGREES LWR THAN YDA WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE-40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN FM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH NRLY FLOW TAKING HOLD
ACRS THE REGION. THIS WL KEEP LK CLDS IN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS WINDS SWING ARND FM THE NW AT 00Z TO MORE OF A NRLY FLOW BY 06Z.
LESS OF A FETCH ACRS THE LKS WL LEAD TO MOCLDY DIMINISHING TO PCLDY
OVRNGT WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING SKC. GIVEN VARYING CLD CONDS
EXPECT THAT MIN TEMPS WL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCALES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK PLAIN.
HIPRES WL SQUAT OVR THE REGION THRU THURSDAY AND BYND. MODERATING
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLD UP FM THE
WEST ON THUR AFTN AS H5 L/WV TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST COURTESY OF UL
LOW OVR HUDSON BAY. HWVR, THIS WL LKLY HV LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES. SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
FIRM CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
500-MB TEMP/HEIGHT PROGS SHOW ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA...EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING ANY TRUE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES. WITH THIS
BEING THE CASE...NO SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWNS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT DOES WARRANT SOME WATCHING WILL BE A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/TENN RVR VLY
TOWARDS LATE WEEK. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR DOES DEVELOP CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE MODEL THEN TAKING THE SFC LOW AND
UPPER WAVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. EXTENT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS
REMAINS IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD SERVE TO BLOCK NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST...HOWEVER IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY HAVE TO
INTRODUCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
TO LOW END MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED COURTESY OF LAKE EFFECT AND
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. THAT BEING SAID...NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. CIGS WILL SCATTER
OUT FOR SOME AS FLOW SLACKENS WHILE VEERING FURTHER TONIGHT...YET
DEVELOP FOR OTHERS AS INVERSION COMPRESSES CLOSER TOT HE
SURFACE...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR SPECIFICS. DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
LIGHT NNE TO NE FLOW EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
VFR AND HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH SUN...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1215 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY COURTESY OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
40S. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 PM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATO
CU ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WYOMING VALLEY. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
10 AM UPDATE...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE
CURRENT WEAK LAKE RESPONSE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO EASTERN SHORE. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH 12Z RAOBS AND RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOUT 50 MB
DEEP AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS LAYER
WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO ERODE UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
THINKING OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA. DUE TO THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TODAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR PRIMARILY NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SYR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUM OF ONLY A FEW TENTHS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ONEIDA COUNTY.
615 AM UPDATE...
HV UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE CATSKILLS THIS MRNG. AT THE
BINGHAMTON AIRPORT WE MEASURED 1.4 INCHES AND NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CATSKILLS MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 4
INCHES. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR ALONG WITH DUAL-POL
PRODUCTS AND WEBCAMS IN THE REGION SUPPORT THIS THINKING.
HV ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMPS AS THEY DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS MRNG.
HRLY POP/WX GRIDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY WELL IN LINE WITH REALITY SO
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
445 AM UPDATE...
HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN GO AWRY. JUST AS GRIDS WERE SENT, RAIN
SWITCHED OVR TO SNOW HERE AT KBGM. UPDATED GRIDS THRU 14Z TO ADD
SNOW IN AT ELEVATIONS > 1600 FT. VRY MINIMAL ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT
OVR IN THE WRN CATS MAY SEE AMNTS UPWARDS OF AN INCH BTWN NOW AND
12Z.
4 AM UPDATE... AS OF 07Z CDFNT HAS MVD THRU CWA. BULK OF THE
RAIN, AS EXPECTED, IS BHND THE FRONTAL BNDRY AS UL TROF AND ASSOC
SPEED MAX ROTATE THRU THE REGION BY 15Z. BASED ON PROGRESS OF BACK
EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF PCPN RAIN SHUD BE LOCATED OVR FAR ERN ZONES
BY 12Z AS FCST. EXPECT THIS PCPN WL SHOVE EAST OF FA BY 15Z.
WRLY FLOW BHND FNT AS WELL AS CLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LK
RESPONSE FOR A TIME THIS MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN. WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY 12Z LOCALES IN THE SRN TUG HILL
PLATEAU MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THIS MRNG BFR MIXING WITH RAIN
BY 15Z. ANY LINGERING PCPN WL LKLY BE ALL RAIN BY LATE MRNG INTO THE
AFTN HRS...WITH VRY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. THAT IS, ASSUMING
ANYTHING CAN DVLP WITH VRY LITTLE ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR AS
OF 09Z COURTESY OF LOW-LVL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE WEST.
SKIES WL GNRLY BEGIN AS MOCLDY THIS MRNG BFR CLRNG SOUTH OF THE I-88
CORRIDOR BY AFTN. SXNS WEST OF I-81 WL RMN PRTLY-MOCLDY THRU 00Z
WED. THIS WL STUNT TEMPS FM RISING TOO MUCH. ON AVG, EXPECT MAXES TO
BE SOME 20-25 DEGREES LWR THAN YDA WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE-40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN FM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH NRLY FLOW TAKING HOLD
ACRS THE REGION. THIS WL KEEP LK CLDS IN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS WINDS SWING ARND FM THE NW AT 00Z TO MORE OF A NRLY FLOW BY 06Z.
LESS OF A FETCH ACRS THE LKS WL LEAD TO MOCLDY DIMINISHING TO PCLDY
OVRNGT WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING SKC. GIVEN VARYING CLD CONDS
EXPECT THAT MIN TEMPS WL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCALES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK PLAIN.
HIPRES WL SQUAT OVR THE REGION THRU THURSDAY AND BYND. MODERATING
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLD UP FM THE
WEST ON THUR AFTN AS H5 L/WV TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST COURTESY OF UL
LOW OVR HUDSON BAY. HWVR, THIS WL LKLY HV LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES. SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
FIRM CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
500-MB TEMP/HEIGHT PROGS SHOW ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA...EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING ANY TRUE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES. WITH THIS
BEING THE CASE...NO SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWNS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT DOES WARRANT SOME WATCHING WILL BE A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/TENN RVR VLY
TOWARDS LATE WEEK. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR DOES DEVELOP CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE MODEL THEN TAKING THE SFC LOW AND
UPPER WAVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. EXTENT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS
REMAINS IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD SERVE TO BLOCK NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST...HOWEVER IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY HAVE TO
INTRODUCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MIXED PRECIP ON THE WAY OUT WITH ONLY KAVP HAVING RAIN NOW. THIS
SHOULD END BY 14Z. SOME MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE MVFR VSBYS AT KAVP
ALSO UNTIL 14Z. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS QUICKLY RISE TO VFR AND
STAY THERE TODAY. KRME AND KBGM MAY ALSO HAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR RIGHT AT THE START.
DURING THE DAY TODAY CONTINUED BKN TO OVC SKIES BUT VFR. WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH WEST LL FLOW SHIFTING TO NW. LATE THIS AFTN TO
SUNSET SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED OR CLEAR AND REMAIN THAT WAY
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE...BUT LOW LEVEL
FLOW GOES AROUND TO NE WITH CONDITIONAL LAKE INSTABILITY. NOT
EXPECTING MANY CLOUDS TONIGHT.
W TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 8 KTS THIS MORNING THEN CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTN. TONIGHT WINDS LIGHT TO CALM...MOSTLY FROM THE NW
TO N.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH SAT...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1017 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY COURTESY OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
40S. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE
CURRENT WEAK LAKE RESPONSE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO EASTERN SHORE. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH 12Z RAOBS AND RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOUT 50 MB
DEEP AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS LAYER
WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO ERODE UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
THINKING OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA. DUE TO THIS INCREASED CLOUD OVER
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TODAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR PRIMARILY NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SYR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUM OF ONLY A FEW TENTHS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ONEIDA COUNTY.
615 AM UPDATE...
HV UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE CATSKILLS THIS MRNG. AT THE
BINGHAMTON AIRPORT WE MEASURED 1.4 INCHES AND NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CATSKILLS MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 4
INCHES. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR ALONG WITH DUAL-POL
PRODUCTS AND WEBCAMS IN THE REGION SUPPORT THIS THINKING.
HV ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMPS AS THEY DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS MRNG.
HRLY POP/WX GRIDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY WELL IN LINE WITH REALITY SO
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
445 AM UPDATE...
HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN GO AWRY. JUST AS GRIDS WERE SENT, RAIN
SWITCHED OVR TO SNOW HERE AT KBGM. UPDATED GRIDS THRU 14Z TO ADD
SNOW IN AT ELEVATIONS > 1600 FT. VRY MINIMAL ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT
OVR IN THE WRN CATS MAY SEE AMNTS UPWARDS OF AN INCH BTWN NOW AND
12Z.
4 AM UPDATE... AS OF 07Z CDFNT HAS MVD THRU CWA. BULK OF THE
RAIN, AS EXPECTED, IS BHND THE FRONTAL BNDRY AS UL TROF AND ASSOC
SPEED MAX ROTATE THRU THE REGION BY 15Z. BASED ON PROGRESS OF BACK
EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF PCPN RAIN SHUD BE LOCATED OVR FAR ERN ZONES
BY 12Z AS FCST. EXPECT THIS PCPN WL SHOVE EAST OF FA BY 15Z.
WRLY FLOW BHND FNT AS WELL AS CLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LK
RESPONSE FOR A TIME THIS MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN. WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY 12Z LOCALES IN THE SRN TUG HILL
PLATEAU MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THIS MRNG BFR MIXING WITH RAIN
BY 15Z. ANY LINGERING PCPN WL LKLY BE ALL RAIN BY LATE MRNG INTO THE
AFTN HRS...WITH VRY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. THAT IS, ASSUMING
ANYTHING CAN DVLP WITH VRY LITTLE ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR AS
OF 09Z COURTESY OF LOW-LVL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE WEST.
SKIES WL GNRLY BEGIN AS MOCLDY THIS MRNG BFR CLRNG SOUTH OF THE I-88
CORRIDOR BY AFTN. SXNS WEST OF I-81 WL RMN PRTLY-MOCLDY THRU 00Z
WED. THIS WL STUNT TEMPS FM RISING TOO MUCH. ON AVG, EXPECT MAXES TO
BE SOME 20-25 DEGREES LWR THAN YDA WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE-40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN FM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH NRLY FLOW TAKING HOLD
ACRS THE REGION. THIS WL KEEP LK CLDS IN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS WINDS SWING ARND FM THE NW AT 00Z TO MORE OF A NRLY FLOW BY 06Z.
LESS OF A FETCH ACRS THE LKS WL LEAD TO MOCLDY DIMINISHING TO PCLDY
OVRNGT WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING SKC. GIVEN VARYING CLD CONDS
EXPECT THAT MIN TEMPS WL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCALES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK PLAIN.
HIPRES WL SQUAT OVR THE REGION THRU THURSDAY AND BYND. MODERATING
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLD UP FM THE
WEST ON THUR AFTN AS H5 L/WV TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST COURTESY OF UL
LOW OVR HUDSON BAY. HWVR, THIS WL LKLY HV LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES. SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
FIRM CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
500-MB TEMP/HEIGHT PROGS SHOW ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA...EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING ANY TRUE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES. WITH THIS
BEING THE CASE...NO SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWNS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT DOES WARRANT SOME WATCHING WILL BE A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/TENN RVR VLY
TOWARDS LATE WEEK. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR DOES DEVELOP CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE MODEL THEN TAKING THE SFC LOW AND
UPPER WAVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. EXTENT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS
REMAINS IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD SERVE TO BLOCK NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST...HOWEVER IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY HAVE TO
INTRODUCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MIXED PRECIP ON THE WAY OUT WITH ONLY KAVP HAVING RAIN NOW. THIS
SHOULD END BY 14Z. SOME MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE MVFR VSBYS AT KAVP
ALSO UNTIL 14Z. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS QUICKLY RISE TO VFR AND
STAY THERE TODAY. KRME AND KBGM MAY ALSO HAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR RIGHT AT THE START.
DURING THE DAY TODAY CONTINUED BKN TO OVC SKIES BUT VFR. WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH WEST LL FLOW SHIFTING TO NW. LATE THIS AFTN TO
SUNSET SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED OR CLEAR AND REMAIN THAT WAY
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE...BUT LOW LEVEL
FLOW GOES AROUND TO NE WITH CONDITIONAL LAKE INSTABILITY. NOT
EXPECTING MANY CLOUDS TONIGHT.
W TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 8 KTS THIS MORNING THEN CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTN. TONIGHT WINDS LIGHT TO CALM...MOSTLY FROM THE NW
TO N.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH SAT...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
930 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...
COOL SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COMPACT POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST...IN A NEGATIVE TILT
FASHION...REACHING THE SAVANNA RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK.
LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM AS 30 TO 40 METER H5 FALLS AND DPVA OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
WHILE THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LACKS DEEP MOISTURE...IT WILL BEGIN TO
TAP INTO THE HIGHER PWATS(1.1-1.2")ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOIST UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE IN THE
290K-295K LAYER TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW NC... ALTHOUGH
IT NEVER BECOMES PARTICULARLY STRONG... AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A SHALLOW BUT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER... LIMITING PRECIP AMOUNTS.
FORECAST POPS LOOK GOOD WITH A LATE SURGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. AS YOU HEAD NORTH...THE DRY SURFACE BASED AIR WILL REPEL
MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FORECAST LOWS MAY BE A GOOD CATEGORY TOO
COOL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
GIVEN ROBUST AND OPAQUE CLOUD COVER ALREADY OVER THE AREA WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 TO 5KFT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30 NORTHEAST
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 64. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS THE DAY RATHER
POTENT AND NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER GA... THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE DAMPENING IN FAVOR OF A BROAD TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A STRENGTHENING SRLY JET OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...
ALSO WEAKENS AS THE JET SHIFTS TO THE NE. THIS WANING FORCING ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING LOWER LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE AT 290K-295K AND
THE CONTINUED SHALLOW BUT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS... INDICATING
A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES OF
CENTRAL NC. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT FOLLOWS OUR EARLIER FORECASTS FAIRLY
CLOSELY... AND WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTH
BUT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
ADVECTION WEDGING INTO THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING ATOP IT AND LITTLE
TO NO SUNSHINE WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH HEATING... AND EXPECT MUCH BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS... 48-52. EXPECT QUICKLY WANING COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST LATE. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS -- WHICH FAVOR A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THUS A FASTER
CLEARING -- SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS 33-40. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NWP GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED RANGE. DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
EVENTUAL DEPARTURE OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
A LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE
OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO STRENGTHEN
A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GRADUALLY
MOISTEN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE CLOSED LOW SLIPS EASTWARD AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES...EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS ON LATE SATURDAY AND THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED BOTH CLOSER/FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND RESULTED IN WETTER/DRIER CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT CONFINE
THEM TO THE MID CHANCE RANGE. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A NORTHEAST WIND ADDING TO THE CHILL.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE INTERACTION OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW
OFF THE COAST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS SOME LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT KINT...
KGSO...AND KRDU. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOME
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THE GFS AND RUC ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE OF SUB
VFR CIGS OCCURRING AT THOSE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THIS ISSUANCE. MODELS SHOW BEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KFAY...WHERE THERE
IS GOOD UPGLIDE AT OR BELOW 3 KFT. CIGS AT KFAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
BELOW VFR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH (KFAY) MAINLY
AFTER 12Z. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
EXTENT AND TIMING BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE RAIN COULD SPREAD FURTHER
NORTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. KRWI SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NE AROUND 5 KTS AND
VEERING WITH HEIGHT. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD:
CIGS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH FAY
THE LAST TO SEE THESE CLOUDS BREAK UP. PATCHY IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN MVFR/IFR SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EAST
(FAY/RWI/RDU) TO WEST (GSO/INT) DURING SATURDAY... LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT MONDAY AS A STRONG SLOW-MOVING STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DEEPENS JUST TO OUR WEST AND DRIFTS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...KC/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
743 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... BRINGING CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...
COOL SURFACE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NC TONIGHT FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER SE ONTARIO... AS
CLOUDS STEADILY FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE FORM OF A THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS NRN FL/SE GA
AND JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 925-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS
FARTHER NW... ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA... AND THIS
FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH A BIT BUT HOLD
FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SRN AND SE NC THROUGH TONIGHT... AS THE 925
MB LOW ATTACHED TO THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.
MEANWHILE... THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DIGS AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES EAST WITH A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER GA BY DAYBREAK. MOIST UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE
290K-295K LAYER TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW NC... ALTHOUGH
IT NEVER BECOMES PARTICULARLY STRONG... AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A SHALLOW BUT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER... LIMITING PRECIP AMOUNTS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
DPVA IN ADDITION TO THE BRIEF WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE ROOTED LOWER IN THE
TROPOSPHERE... ALTHOUGH THE BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL HOLD JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
EXISTING FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS SPREADING INTO THE FAR SW CWA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
ANSON COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST GIVEN THE CONSENSUS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS QPF PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF WHICH
SUPPORT AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE... THE DRY
SURFACE BASED AIR WILL REPEL MEASURABLE PRECIP... ALTHOUGH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL SPREAD OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM 32 NORTH (WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
LAST TO FILL IN) TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 64. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS THE DAY RATHER
POTENT AND NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER GA... THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE DAMPENING IN FAVOR OF A BROAD TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A STRENGTHENING SRLY JET OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...
ALSO WEAKENS AS THE JET SHIFTS TO THE NE. THIS WANING FORCING ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING LOWER LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE AT 290K-295K AND
THE CONTINUED SHALLOW BUT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS... INDICATING
A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES OF
CENTRAL NC. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT FOLLOWS OUR EARLIER FORECASTS FAIRLY
CLOSELY... AND WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTH
BUT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
ADVECTION WEDGING INTO THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING ATOP IT AND LITTLE
TO NO SUNSHINE WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH HEATING... AND EXPECT MUCH BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS... 48-52. EXPECT QUICKLY WANING COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT... WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST LATE. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS -- WHICH FAVOR A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THUS A FASTER
CLEARING -- SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS 33-40. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NWP GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED RANGE. DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
EVENTUAL DEPARTURE OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
A LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE
OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO STRENGTHEN
A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GRADUALLY
MOISTEN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE CLOSED LOW SLIPS EASTWARD AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES...EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS ON LATE SATURDAY AND THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED BOTH CLOSER/FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND RESULTED IN WETTER/DRIER CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT CONFINE
THEM TO THE MID CHANCE RANGE. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A NORTHEAST WIND ADDING TO THE CHILL.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE INTERACTION OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW
OFF THE COAST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS SOME LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT KINT...
KGSO...AND KRDU. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOME
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THE GFS AND RUC ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE OF SUB
VFR CIGS OCCURRING AT THOSE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THIS ISSUANCE. MODELS SHOW BEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KFAY...WHERE THERE
IS GOOD UPGLIDE AT OR BELOW 3 KFT. CIGS AT KFAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
BELOW VFR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH (KFAY) MAINLY
AFTER 12Z. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
EXTENT AND TIMING BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE RAIN COULD SPREAD FURTHER
NORTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. KRWI SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NE AROUND 5 KTS AND
VEERING WITH HEIGHT. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD:
CIGS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH FAY
THE LAST TO SEE THESE CLOUDS BREAK UP. PATCHY IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN MVFR/IFR SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EAST
(FAY/RWI/RDU) TO WEST (GSO/INT) DURING SATURDAY... LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT MONDAY AS A STRONG SLOW-MOVING STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DEEPENS JUST TO OUR WEST AND DRIFTS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...KC/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1219 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
CHILLY CANADIAN AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEK...EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN LOCATED BY RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE PENDER COUNTY COASTLINE...EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WILMINGTON AND TO ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF NORTH
MYRTLE BEACH. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
(SHOWERS) WILL MOVE ACROSS WILMINGTON WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH
LIGHTER SHOWERS FROM ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUING INLAND
ESPECIALLY IN THE LUMBERTON AND DILLON VICINITY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
PEAKED AT ALL LOCATIONS AND STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 10 AM FOLLOWS...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN TO
WHITEVILLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF HORRY COUNTY TO NEAR
KINGSTREE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE 11Z HRRR WAS ABOUT ONE HOUR FAST
WITH THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE LOOKED TO BE A GOOD FIT FOR THE SHAPE
AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY...PRESSING IT OFFSHORE BY 18-19Z
IN ALL AREAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A NARROW ZONE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE SC COAST. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY EXTEND INTO
EXTREME SE NORTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH AND MUCH COLDER AIR BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN RECORDED INLAND AND STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95.
RADAR SHOWS ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE GULF STREAM. SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS APPEAR TO
BE LINKED TO SMALL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER
ASSISTED BY SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A
FAVORABLY POSITIONED 300 MB JET ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS REGION OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVECT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
NORTH OF NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS/COOL AIR WEDGE
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS VERY SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO, THE EXTENT TO WHICH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING. AS IT IS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE QUITE EXTENSIVE BUT A FEW BREAKS DURING PEAK HEATING COULD REALLY
ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPS. AS THE DAY WEARS ON HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES JUST ATOP THE SURFACE AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND COULD TOUCH OFF WIDELY SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS BACK THE ORIGINAL FORECAST
ISSUE OF FIGURING OUT HOW CLOUDY THE DAY ENDS UP (STILL LIKELY
WITHIN `MOSTLY CLOUDY`) AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS ENDS UP KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NY STATE RIDGING
INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. END RESULT WILL BE SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN FROM POINTS NORTH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW CLIMO
ESPECIALLY BY DAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL ALSO BECOME
INCREASINGLY BAGGY AND EVENTUALLY CUTOFF WEAKLY OVER GULF STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTING ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
CAUSE PRESSURES TO FALL WELL OFF THE COAST ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL INITIALLY BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST/FRONT BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY LEADS TO
FEEDBACK THAT STRENGTHENS THE FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOW
MUCH RAINFALL THIS ENDS UP LEADING TO IS TOUGH TO SAY SINCE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND THE LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.
THE EC, WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE ACCURATE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS OF
LATE, IS THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH AND WOULD IMPLY
SOME DECENT RAINS LOCALLY. THIS SOLUTION IS NOW GETTING SUPPORT FROM
THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN A
FLATTER AND FURTHER NORTH CYCLOGENESIS KEEPING RAINFALL CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS HAS BEEN THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION BUT THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE OTHERS IS GETTING
HARD TO IGNORE AND THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE TWEAKED IN A MORE
PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION. MONDAYS FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE FASTER SOLUTIONS IMPLY DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WHEREAS THE
SLOWEST POSSIBILITIES COULD STILL MEAN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES WITH
NNE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL SITES
AROUND 18Z...WHERE CIGS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO MVFR LEVELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE AT THE COASTAL
TERMS...ESPECIALLY KILM. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION IMPACT IN
THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE REDUCED CIGS ACROSS THE CWA. MVFR/IFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...WHILE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE INLAND TERMS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID PERIOD...BUT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
LEVELS BY LATE WED MORNING. NNE WINDS 10 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST FRONTAL STRATUS POSSIBLE WED AND EARLY
THURS. OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THURS THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE PENDER COUNTY COAST
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 10 AM FOLLOWS...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY 40-60 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST AND
SHOULD REACH THE BEACHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A
RAPID SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE MOST
NUMEROUS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOP
ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM 2 FT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND TO AROUND 4 FT AT
THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-6 FT TONIGHT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT IN A POST FRONTAL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME ON WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME WAVE SHADOWING MAY CALL
FOR JUST A SCEC HOWEVER OVER HORRY COUNTY WATERS. A SMALL DECREASE
IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT SLIPS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW
WHERE SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. AT A MINIMUM IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
SCEC CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS WELL OFFSHORE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM POINTS WELL TO THE NORTH.
COASTAL WASTERS FORECAST ZONES LIE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN. ON
SATURDAY GRADUAL FALLING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BOLSTER THE
GRADIENT AND ANY WATERS THAT HAD BEEN TEETERING NEAR THE SCEC/SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL BE PUSHED INTO ADVISORY REALM BY BOTH WIND AND SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1002 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
CHILLY CANADIAN AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEK...EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ELIZABETHTOWN TO WHITEVILLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF HORRY
COUNTY TO NEAR KINGSTREE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE 11Z HRRR WAS ABOUT
ONE HOUR FAST WITH THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE LOOKED TO BE A GOOD FIT
FOR THE SHAPE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY...PRESSING IT
OFFSHORE BY 18-19Z IN ALL AREAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A NARROW ZONE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE SC COAST. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY EXTEND INTO
EXTREME SE NORTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH AND MUCH COLDER AIR BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN RECORDED INLAND AND STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95.
RADAR SHOWS ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE GULF STREAM. SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS APPEAR TO
BE LINKED TO SMALL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER
ASSISTED BY SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A
FAVORABLY POSITIONED 300 MB JET ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS REGION OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVECT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
NORTH OF NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS/COOL AIR WEDGE
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS VERY SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO, THE EXTENT TO WHICH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING. AS IT IS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE QUITE EXTENSIVE BUT A FEW BREAKS DURING PEAK HEATING COULD REALLY
ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPS. AS THE DAY WEARS ON HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES JUST ATOP THE SURFACE AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND COULD TOUCH OFF WIDELY SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS BACK THE ORIGINAL FORECAST
ISSUE OF FIGURING OUT HOW CLOUDY THE DAY ENDS UP (STILL LIKELY
WITHIN `MOSTLY CLOUDY`) AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS ENDS UP KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NY STATE RIDGING
INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. END RESULT WILL BE SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN FROM POINTS NORTH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW CLIMO
ESPECIALLY BY DAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL ALSO BECOME
INCREASINGLY BAGGY AND EVENTUALLY CUTOFF WEAKLY OVER GULF STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTING ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
CAUSE PRESSURES TO FALL WELL OFF THE COAST ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL INITIALLY BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST/FRONT BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY LEADS TO
FEEDBACK THAT STRENGTHENS THE FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOW
MUCH RAINFALL THIS ENDS UP LEADING TO IS TOUGH TO SAY SINCE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND THE LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.
THE EC, WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE ACCURATE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS OF
LATE, IS THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH AND WOULD IMPLY
SOME DECENT RAINS LOCALLY. THIS SOLUTION IS NOW GETTING SUPPORT FROM
THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN A
FLATTER AND FURTHER NORTH CYCLOGENESIS KEEPING RAINFALL CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS HAS BEEN THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION BUT THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE OTHERS IS GETTING
HARD TO IGNORE AND THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE TWEAKED IN A MORE
PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION. MONDAYS FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE FASTER SOLUTIONS IMPLY DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WHEREAS THE
SLOWEST POSSIBILITIES COULD STILL MEAN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING KILM. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AND IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
INLAND TERMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL SITES AROUND 14/15Z. LOWERING CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHALLOW CAA AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION PROMOTE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. LIGHT W/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY 10
TO 12 KNOTS TODAY. LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIGS SHOULD LIFT
TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE INLAND
TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST FRONTAL STRATUS POSSIBLE WED INTO THURS.
OCCASIONAL OVERRUNNING LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THURS THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY 40-60 MILES
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND SHOULD REACH THE BEACHES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS AND AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2 FT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND
TO AROUND 4 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE
WILL OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...AT
WHICH POINT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-6 FT TONIGHT...HIGHEST
OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT IN A POST FRONTAL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME ON WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME WAVE SHADOWING MAY CALL
FOR JUST A SCEC HOWEVER OVER HORRY COUNTY WATERS. A SMALL DECREASE
IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT SLIPS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW
WHERE SCA IS NO LONGER NEEDED. AT A MINIMUM IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
SCEC CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS WELL OFFSHORE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM POINTS WELL TO THE NORTH.
COASTAL WASTERS FORECAST ZONES LIE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN. ON
SATURDAY GRADUAL FALLING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BOLSTER THE
GRADIENT AND ANY WATERS THAT HAD BEEN TEETERING NEAR THE SCEC/SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL BE PUSHED INTO ADVISORY REALM BY BOTH WIND AND SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1139 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WILL UPDATE ONE MORE TIME FOR CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS.
PREVIOUS...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 20Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS A
SHARP CUTOFF TO BOTH PRECIP AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING MOVING INTO NW OH ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. OBS HAVE SHOWN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT RAIN ELSEWHERE. MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THAT MENTION ONLY CHC
POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONCE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS DEPARTS TO THE EAST THE FOCUS WILL BE ON
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -8C OR
SO AND INVERSIONS SHOWN ON BUFKIT SOUNDING STILL A BIT HIGH
EXPECTING LINGERING CLOUDS WITH WEST WINDS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THINKING THAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THIS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT LATE OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR AND MODELS SHOWING SHARPER UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO HELP IN GETTING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV TEMPS WITH HRRR TRENDS
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM ON HOURLY TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE POPS NOT INDICATING MUCH WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WENT WITH AT LEAST HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE OH AND NW
PA TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE WEST FLOW NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACROSS
GREATER CLEVELAND AREA...WITH BEST ACCUMS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO INTERIOR ERIE COUNTY. THINKING FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTIES AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE OFF THE LAKE APPEARS TO BE IN THIS AREA ALSO. OVERALL
THOUGH THINKING ACCUMS WILL RANGE AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS
INTERIOR NW PA TO LESS THAN AN INCH BACK INTO FAR NE OH COUNTIES.
BY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR OVERCOMES
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY FURTHER ACCUMS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL HELP ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RANGE IN MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS AND AM
SNOW SHOWERS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SOME ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME WEAK UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW DURING THE PERIOD. DESPITE THAT MAINLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF MET MAV AND MEX NUMBER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEEING NO
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED EVEN
AS THE CENTER OF IT DRIFTS INTO EASTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE. SO AT THIS
POINT WE EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY EXPECTING THESE TO PRIMARILY BE
LOW END VFR. EXCEPTION WOULD BE WITH ANY SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
EAST OF CLEVELAND. NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE LIKELY STILL RAIN.
BUT THE BEST MOISTURE STAYS TO OUR NORTH. WILL MENTION A SNRA MIX
FOR ERIE IN A TEMPO...BUT THAT IS IT. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES
ARE NOT SUGGESTING MUCH WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS DIE DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE
INCREASED MIXING WILL OCCUR OVER THE LAKE. THE 850MB TEMPS FORECAST
TO DIP TO MINUS 10C BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE SMALL
CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR SUNSET TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
UPDATE...
INCREASED THE SOUTHERN WINDS A LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND NEW RUC OUTPUT. ALSO LOWERED
DEWPOINTS WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL OCCUR. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INCREASED WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 32 58 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 32 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 24 60 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 29 58 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 33 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE SOUTHERN WINDS A LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND NEW RUC OUTPUT. ALSO LOWERED
DEWPOINTS WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL OCCUR. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INCREASED WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 32 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 57 29 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 24 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 56 29 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
824 PM PST MON NOV 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER SW OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. IT IS WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT AS
EXPECTED, BUT LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES AT MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
THE CURRY COAST, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND IN THE CASCADES. THE
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS AND THUS THE RADAR IS
OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF IT, BUT THERE ARE CERTAINLY STILL SHOWERS
FLOATING AROUND OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL. THE 13/00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM AND RAP SHOW THIS CONTINUING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT,
I HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS WESTWARD. I`VE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS BUT IT SHOULD NOT COME AS A SURPRISE TO SEE A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO NEARLY ANYWHERE THIS EVENING. RAIN IS FAIRLY LIGHT
(ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AN HOUR AT MOST), AND SO, DESPITE
INCREASING POPS, I ACTUALLY DECREASED AMOUNTS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. -WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...A FRONT IS STALLING AND WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON...AND BRINGING A MIX OF MVFR...IFR...AND VFR CEILINGS TO
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
IMPACT ALL AREAS TONIGHT. FOG AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST EAST
SIDE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR ALL AREAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM PST MON NOV 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15TH.
A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS GENERATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR,
MODERATE RAIN RATES WERE STILL REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL RANGE AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THERE WAS AROUND A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW AT MOST MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT, THE SNOW LEVEL HAS RISEN TO AROUND 6500
FEET. THE CRATER LAKE VISITOR CENTER IS THE ONLY ROAD CAM STILL
SHOWING SNOW ON THE ROADWAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING
OVER THE CASCADES, AND A WEAK BUT BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO CALIFORNIA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT,
THESE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CAPE MENDOCINO INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS, NAM AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED STRONGER WITH
RIDGING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED ON WEDNESDAY AND THE MENTION OF ANY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION REMOVED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH
STILL OFFSHORE BUT HEADED EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR AREA WITH A SNOW LEVEL
NEAR 6000 FEET.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16TH THROUGH TUEDAY NOVEMBER 20TH.
AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THIS PERIOD.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INLAND,
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALSO, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND TO THE SOUTH. I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME PERIOD SHOWING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDY INTO SUNDAY WHILE A STRONG RIDGE
REMAINS INLAND EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT INLAND ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE IMPROVED CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST ABOVE 6000 FEET
SATURDAY...LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHIFT THE TROUGH AXIS INLAND LATE SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACNW COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ARUOND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MONDAY MORNING THEN INCREASE TO ABOVE
5000 FEET DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF BREEZY
AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY. POTENTIAL AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREA.
ON TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG JET
ALOFT TO DEVELOP AND NOSE INTO THE PACNW. THIS COMBINED WITH A LOW
PERSISTING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING INTO THE AREA, WOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
955 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
.UPDATE...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CWA...A
REFLECTION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SD/EASTERN WY PER WATER
VAPOUR. SYSTEM MOISTURE STARVED...WITH RETURNS ON RADAR MOSTLY
ALOFT. BEST REFLECTIVITY LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND...BUT IN LIGHT
FASHION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ADJUST POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TWEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR 12Z KUNR SOUNDING.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012/
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ZR CHANCES THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY WEAK
LIFT IS SUPPORTING MAINLY OVERCAST SKY WITH AREAS OF VIRGA. IF
PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE...EXPECT IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES THIS MORNING GIVEN A DIMINISHING WARM NOSE. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP PROFILES. ALL ELSE IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012/
FAST DISTURBED WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE PERIOD
WITH 36 HOUR PHASE VELOCITY FAVORED IN MODEL CONSENSUS. MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING EAST TROUGH MT/WY/CO AS OF
09Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE
AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WED...WITH INCREASED LIFT SUPPORTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST /ESP WED/ WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
PERIOD.
TODAY...FAST MOVING IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD ASCENT
OVERT THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FA...WITH CLEARING WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DISMAL MOISTURE PROFILES WITH OVERALL WEAK
WAA/FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE WILL SUPPORT VERY SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT SUPPORTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF. DID RETAIN LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 ENACTING A
TIME SHIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON. IF PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE THIS
MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ZR GIVEN SFC T/S BELOW 32F AND A WARM NOSE JUST
OFF THE SFC GREATER THAN 2.5C. THIS LINES UP WITH SREF PRECIP TYPE
PROBS AND GFS DOMINANT PROGS. CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS W-E LATE IN THE NIGHT PER THE NEXT ADVANCING
UPPER IMPULSE. THIS IMPULSE WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE BL PARTIALLY
MIXED WITH WARM PROFILES JUST OFF THE SFC...HELPING TO QUELL T FALLS
SOME.
WED/THUR...NEXT IMPULSE WILL ADV THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE BULK OF FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...A CONTINUED TREND IN THE 06Z NAM. THUS...HAVE COOLED NORTHERN
AREAS DOWN WED NIGHT GIVEN FROPA AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THUR...AS LL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO E-SE PER THE NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. STAUNCH PRESSURE FALLS
AND WAA THUR NIGHT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NE WY.
HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP AND ADJUSTED MIN T/S PER EXPECTED TURBULENT
MIXING.
EXTENDED...WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NEAR
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT CHANCES
FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM...WFO UNR
AVIATION...26
UPDATE...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
403 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012
.UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ZR CHANCES THIS MORNING.
RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT IS SUPPORTING MAINLY OVERCAST SKY WITH AREAS OF
VIRGA. IF PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE...EXPECT IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING GIVEN A DIMINISHING WARM NOSE. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP PROFILES. ALL ELSE IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BAND OF CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FAST DISTURBED WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE PERIOD WITH
36 HOUR PHASE VELOCITY FAVORED IN MODEL CONSENSUS. MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING EAST TROUGH MT/WY/CO AS OF
09Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WED...WITH INCREASED LIFT SUPPORTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST /ESP WED/ WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.
TODAY...FAST MOVING IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD ASCENT
OVERT THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FA...WITH CLEARING WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DISMAL MOISTURE PROFILES WITH OVERALL WEAK
WAA/FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE WILL SUPPORT VERY SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT SUPPORTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF. DID RETAIN LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 ENACTING A
TIME SHIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON. IF PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE THIS
MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ZR GIVEN SFC T/S BELOW 32F AND A WARM NOSE JUST
OFF THE SFC GREATER THAN 2.5C. THIS LINES UP WITH SREF PRECIP TYPE
PROBS AND GFS DOMINANT PROGS. CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS W-E LATE IN THE NIGHT PER THE NEXT ADVANCING
UPPER IMPULSE. THIS IMPULSE WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE BL PARTIALLY
MIXED WITH WARM PROFILES JUST OFF THE SFC...HELPING TO QUELL T FALLS
SOME.
WED/THUR...NEXT IMPULSE WILL ADV THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE BULK OF FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...A CONTINUED TREND IN THE 06Z NAM. THUS...HAVE COOLED NORTHERN
AREAS DOWN WED NIGHT GIVEN FROPA AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THUR...AS LL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO E-SE PER THE NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. STAUNCH PRESSURE FALLS
AND WAA THUR NIGHT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NE WY.
HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP AND ADJUSTED MIN T/S PER EXPECTED TURBULENT
MIXING.
EXTENDED...WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NEAR
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT CHANCES
FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
UPDATE...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1000 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012
.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT AND REST OF TONIGHT WEATHER TRENDS. LATEST 00Z NAM12 AND
03Z RUC13 AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST/MAINTAIN A 850MB
BKN/OVC CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HILL COUNTRY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS AUGMENT AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES FROM WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OF DEL RIO TO
SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE AND SOUTH TO THE COAST. CIGS ACROSS
THIS AREA ARE VFR. TO THE NORTH SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING. KAUS,
KSAT, KSSF AND KDRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. AS S/W ENERGY
MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...PROVIDING A MORE
CONSISTENT E TO SE SFC WIND PATTERN FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS COULD CAUSE CIGS AROUND 2500 TO 6000 FT TO FORM NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN VCNTY OF KDRT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KAUS, KSAT AND KSSF
THURSDAY MORNING. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AOB 10 THSD FT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY EVENING SFC WINDS WILL BECOME E TO NE...AS THE S/W FROM
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE MS VALLEY
AND CAUSES A WEAK RIDGE TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERNS WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR/ERODE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. OVERRUNNING WAS OCCURRING IN THE SWLY FLOW 5-8K FEET ABOVE
THE COOL DRY SURFACE RIDGE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL RETURN
MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER S TX WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ALL AREAS. A BRIEF
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT MAINLY NERN CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NE-E. THIS WEAK
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SWRN CWA AS WELL.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO SELY BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
NWLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FLOW. MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. A MORE POTENT
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST TX MONDAY AND ACROSS
SOUTH TX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. HAVE TONED DOWN GFS MOS POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT MORE IN
LINE WITH THE DRIER ECWMF AND PREVIOUS THINKING. CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND COOL NIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 40 68 44 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 34 68 40 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 67 45 67 38 / 0 0 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 66 41 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 68 51 65 48 / - 0 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 35 67 37 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 66 49 67 42 / 0 0 - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 40 66 44 67 39 / 0 0 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 68 42 67 39 / 0 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 65 49 66 43 / 0 0 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 66 51 66 44 / 0 0 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1228 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE...BASED ON TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHEAST (WHERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS PILING UP OF WATER HAS NOT
BEEN AS GREAT)...DROPPED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS BUT KEPT FOR NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. BOB HALL
PIER WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 FEET SO HAVE KEPT IT. EXPECTING LESS OF A
PROBLEM TOMORROW WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHED SWELLS.
FINALLY...DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST (AND STILL MAY BE A BIT HIGH). RAIN ENTERING AREA IS COOLING
THINGS A BIT AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BRING MUCH
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. STILL LIKE THE 20 POPS GOING AS STILL
ARE HAVING TROUBLE FINDING SOMEONE WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL
(ALTHOUGH RADAR IS SHOWING SOME AREAS WITH MORE THAN 1/10 INCH
WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN 45-55 DBZ CELLS AT TIMES. PRODUCTS OUT
AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SOME CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z...ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT SO ONLY HAVE
PUT IN VCSH IN ALL BUT KVCT TERMINAL (NO VCSH). WILL UPDATE ON
THIS IF NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IF LIGHTNING BECOMES AN ISSUE AT
KLRD OR IF RAIN MORE MEASURABLE AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS TODAY 11 KNOTS OR LESS (BIT HIGHER AT
KCRP DUE TO PROXIMATE TO BAY). CIGS DECREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACH OF RAIN...THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
JET AND DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MEASURABLE RAINFALL MORE NORTH FOR
TODAY...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THE 20 POPS. BET PART OF RAIN CELL WENT
JUST SOUTH OF KCOT WHERE THEY GOT A TRACE OF RAIN (AREAS SOUTH
PROBABLY GOT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO). DID PUT THUNDER IN FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS SINCE IT HAS BEEN A BIT OBSERVED FROM TIME TO TIME
(PRETTY COOL ALOFT). OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST/SECOND
PERIODS.
MARINE...EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE TIL 3 PM. RUC13 AND NAM
IS KEEPING 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN NEARSHORE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE EXTENDED IT. LEFT SCA FOR
OFFSHORE AS-IS. DID MENTION RAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT BUT NO
THUNDER YET. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LATER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 4 KM MODEL OUTPUT FROM SPC
AND TEX-TECH...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS HEADING TOWARD COTULLA. 4KM MODELS
SHOWING SOME QPF (ISOLATED OVER 1/4 INCH...AM NOT SURE IT WILL BE
THAT MUCH). THIS RAIN/SHOWERS IS FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT PWATS GET ABOVE 1 INCH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WILL GO WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND PUT SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED. HAVE EVEN SEEN AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE NW OF
COTULLA BUT THINK THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE ESSENTIALLY ALL RAIN OR
SPRINKLES AND THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
THUNDER AT THIS TIME (HOWEVER WILL MONITOR). PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...BROKEN/OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES LATER TODAY WILL PRECLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS STREAM OF MID AND LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE 40S AND 50 THIS MORNING AND DO
NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL TOO MUCH MORE. WEAK SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET
APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING...TEMPS WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. ALSO...06Z MAV POPS HAVE COME IN
LOWER THAN 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL. PREFER TO CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES INSTEAD OF LOW END POPS. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR HIGHS. ALSO OF NOTE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 7 TO 9
FEET AND TIDE LEVEL RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREDICTED...MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW MAY OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF BEACHES TODAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING...WITH SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW SCA
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX
THROUGH FRI RESULTING IN A GENERALLY LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK TO MOD FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER TO THE E AND SE THRU THE WEEKEND AND THEN STRENGTHENS MON/TUE
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY. HAVE
KNOCKED THE FCSTD TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES SAT/SUN DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND THE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS.
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGD TO DVLP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL BEND AS WELL DUE TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SHORT WAVE ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY PRECLUDE RAIN
FARTHER E. SATURDAY IS PROGD TO BE A TAD DRIER...THEN ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO S TX ON SUN/MON TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES. THE GFS WAS PREVIOUSLY SHOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS
PUSHED IT BACK INTO MON. DECIDED TO KEEP A BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHC
FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 52 71 53 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 62 42 68 41 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 64 51 72 55 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ALICE 63 48 71 48 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 63 52 69 57 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 60 45 68 49 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 66 49 71 52 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 66 55 70 56 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1137 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SOME CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z...ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT SO ONLY HAVE
PUT IN VCSH IN ALL BUT KVCT TERMINAL (NO VCSH). WILL UPDATE ON
THIS IF NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IF LIGHTNING BECOMES AN ISSUE AT
KLRD OR IF RAIN MORE MEASURABLE AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS TODAY 11 KNOTS OR LESS (BIT HIGHER AT
KCRP DUE TO PROXIMATE TO BAY). CIGS DECREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACH OF RAIN...THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
JET AND DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MEASURABLE RAINFALL MORE NORTH FOR
TODAY...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THE 20 POPS. BET PART OF RAIN CELL WENT
JUST SOUTH OF KCOT WHERE THEY GOT A TRACE OF RAIN (AREAS SOUTH
PROBABLY GOT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO). DID PUT THUNDER IN FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS SINCE IT HAS BEEN A BIT OBSERVED FROM TIME TO TIME
(PRETTY COOL ALOFT). OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST/SECOND
PERIODS.
MARINE...EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE TIL 3 PM. RUC13 AND NAM
IS KEEPING 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN NEARSHORE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE EXTENDED IT. LEFT SCA FOR
OFFSHORE AS-IS. DID MENTION RAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT BUT NO
THUNDER YET. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LATER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 4 KM MODEL OUTPUT FROM SPC
AND TEX-TECH...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS HEADING TOWARD COTULLA. 4KM MODELS
SHOWING SOME QPF (ISOLATED OVER 1/4 INCH...AM NOT SURE IT WILL BE
THAT MUCH). THIS RAIN/SHOWERS IS FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT PWATS GET ABOVE 1 INCH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WILL GO WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND PUT SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED. HAVE EVEN SEEN AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE NW OF
COTULLA BUT THINK THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE ESSENTIALLY ALL RAIN OR
SPRINKLES AND THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
THUNDER AT THIS TIME (HOWEVER WILL MONITOR). PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...BROKEN/OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES LATER TODAY WILL PRECLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS STREAM OF MID AND LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE 40S AND 50 THIS MORNING AND DO
NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL TOO MUCH MORE. WEAK SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET
APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING...TEMPS WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. ALSO...06Z MAV POPS HAVE COME IN
LOWER THAN 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL. PREFER TO CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES INSTEAD OF LOW END POPS. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR HIGHS. ALSO OF NOTE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 7 TO 9
FEET AND TIDE LEVEL RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREDICTED...MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW MAY OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF BEACHES TODAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING...WITH SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW SCA
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX
THROUGH FRI RESULTING IN A GENERALLY LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK TO MOD FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER TO THE E AND SE THRU THE WEEKEND AND THEN STRENGTHENS MON/TUE
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY. HAVE
KNOCKED THE FCSTD TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES SAT/SUN DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND THE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS.
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGD TO DVLP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL BEND AS WELL DUE TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SHORT WAVE ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY PRECLUDE RAIN
FARTHER E. SATURDAY IS PROGD TO BE A TAD DRIER...THEN ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO S TX ON SUN/MON TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES. THE GFS WAS PREVIOUSLY SHOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS
PUSHED IT BACK INTO MON. DECIDED TO KEEP A BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHC
FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 52 71 53 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 63 42 68 41 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 66 51 72 55 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ALICE 65 48 71 48 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 65 52 69 57 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 63 45 68 49 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 66 49 71 52 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 66 55 70 56 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MEASURABLE RAINFALL MORE NORTH FOR
TODAY...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THE 20 POPS. BET PART OF RAIN CELL WENT
JUST SOUTH OF KCOT WHERE THEY GOT A TRACE OF RAIN (AREAS SOUTH
PROBABLY GOT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO). DID PUT THUNDER IN FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS SINCE IT HAS BEEN A BIT OBSERVED FROM TIME TO TIME
(PRETTY COOL ALOFT). OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST/SECOND
PERIODS.
&&
.MARINE...EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE TIL 3 PM. RUC13 AND NAM
IS KEEPING 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN NEARSHORE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE EXTENDED IT. LEFT SCA FOR
OFFSHORE AS-IS. DID MENTION RAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT BUT NO
THUNDER YET. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LATER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 4 KM MODEL OUTPUT FROM SPC
AND TEX-TECH...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS HEADING TOWARD COTULLA. 4KM MODELS
SHOWING SOME QPF (ISOLATED OVER 1/4 INCH...AM NOT SURE IT WILL BE
THAT MUCH). THIS RAIN/SHOWERS IS FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT PWATS GET ABOVE 1 INCH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WILL GO WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND PUT SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED. HAVE EVEN SEEN AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE NW OF
COTULLA BUT THINK THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE ESSENTIALLY ALL RAIN OR
SPRINKLES AND THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
THUNDER AT THIS TIME (HOWEVER WILL MONITOR). PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...BROKEN/OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES LATER TODAY WILL PRECLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS STREAM OF MID AND LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE 40S AND 50 THIS MORNING AND DO
NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL TOO MUCH MORE. WEAK SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET
APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING...TEMPS WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. ALSO...06Z MAV POPS HAVE COME IN
LOWER THAN 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL. PREFER TO CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES INSTEAD OF LOW END POPS. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR HIGHS. ALSO OF NOTE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 7 TO 9
FEET AND TIDE LEVEL RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREDICTED...MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW MAY OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF BEACHES TODAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING...WITH SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW SCA
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX
THROUGH FRI RESULTING IN A GENERALLY LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK TO MOD FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER TO THE E AND SE THRU THE WEEKEND AND THEN STRENGTHENS MON/TUE
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY. HAVE
KNOCKED THE FCSTD TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES SAT/SUN DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND THE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS.
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGD TO DVLP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL BEND AS WELL DUE TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SHORT WAVE ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY PRECLUDE RAIN
FARTHER E. SATURDAY IS PROGD TO BE A TAD DRIER...THEN ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO S TX ON SUN/MON TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES. THE GFS WAS PREVIOUSLY SHOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS
PUSHED IT BACK INTO MON. DECIDED TO KEEP A BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHC
FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 52 71 53 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 63 42 68 41 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 66 51 72 55 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ALICE 65 48 71 48 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 65 52 69 57 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 63 45 68 49 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 66 49 71 52 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 66 55 70 56 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF A STOKES COUNTY NC TO AMHERST COUNTY VA LINE...WHILE
CLOUDY SKIES ARE OBSERVED TO THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS...AND THE
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN...ARE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT THESE REMAINING CLOUDS TO BE
OUT OF OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO BUILD IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
AS OF 445 AM EST TUESDAY...
AT 4AM COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
SHORT WAVE AXIS CROSSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
00Z LOCAL WRF ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUC AND SREF GUIDANCE HELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS SHOWED DRY WEATHER AFTER 18Z/1PM.
NARROW BAND OF STRATUS IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO TENNESSEE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STARTING OUT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAVE USED COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS A
STARTING POINT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE ECMWF FOR A FEW DAYS NOW HAS HAD THE BOLDEST SOLUTION ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...AND EVEN EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM HAS HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS SCENARIO.
UNTIL THE 12Z...7AM MONDAY SOLUTION...THE GFS KEPT ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT TOO HINTED
AT SOME PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THE ECWMF SOLUTION DID.
THE 00Z...7PM MONDAY...SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THE FOLLOWING TRENDS.
THE NAM STILL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ITS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AND IS PRIMARILY A THURSDAY EVENT NOW. THE ECMWF IS
STILL THE BOLDEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT IT HAS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA SOUTHEAST...WITH VERY LITTLE OF IT SKIRTING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TO KEEP A LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO DRASTIC
OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS...THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER CONFIDENCE IS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL STILL HAVE A DRY AND
COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE REPRESENTED BY A DRY FORECAST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOIST NE
850 MB FLOW...HAVE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EST MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THEIR ENSEMBLES...THE ECMWF AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE GFS...ARE FURTHER WEST WITH A REX BLOCK/CLOSED
UPPER LOW THAT FIRST PINCHES APART FROM THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES GO
AROUND OUR REGION...BUT THIS STILL MEANS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN...NUMEROUS CLOUDS AND CHILLY AIR AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. FOLLOWING ITS BIAS...THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...HOWEVER EVEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS THROWS QPF
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY, THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH
MENTIONABLE POPS GREATER THAN 24 PERCENT IN THE FVX/LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL RUNS...ITS
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL END UP FURTHER WEST
INTO SW VA. IN THIS WEDGY REGIME WITH ENOUGH H85 RH...BOTH THE
ECMWF MOS AND THE MEX MOS LOOK SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS
AND SEVERAL TOO COLD ON MINS. THEREFORE REDUCED THE DIURNAL RANGE
OF TEMPS...WITH SOME SPOTS STUCK IN THE 40S FOR MAX T BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRUGGLING TO FIND ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW...PERHAPS ENOUGH UPSLOPE COOLING LATE AT NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW
TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SE WEST VA OR NW NC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT EXITED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO EXIT FROM DAN AOA
13/19Z. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. EXPECT THESE VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 13/18Z TAF
PERIOD. DESPITE MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FROM WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...DRY AIR BUILDING IN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVENT ALL BUT ISOLATED LIGHT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A MORE ORGANIZED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1030 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF A STOKES COUNTY NC TO AMHERST COUNTY VA LINE...WHILE
CLOUDY SKIES ARE OBSERVED TO THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS...AND THE
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN...ARE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT THESE REMAINING CLOUDS TO BE
OUT OF OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO BUILD IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
AS OF 445 AM EST TUESDAY...
AT 4AM COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
SHORT WAVE AXIS CROSSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
00Z LOCAL WRF ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUC AND SREF GUIDANCE HELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS SHOWED DRY WEATHER AFTER 18Z/1PM.
NARROW BAND OF STRATUS IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO TENNESSEE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STARTING OUT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAVE USED COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS A
STARTING POINT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE ECMWF FOR A FEW DAYS NOW HAS HAD THE BOLDEST SOLUTION ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...AND EVEN EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM HAS HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS SCENARIO.
UNTIL THE 12Z...7AM MONDAY SOLUTION...THE GFS KEPT ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT TOO HINTED
AT SOME PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THE ECWMF SOLUTION DID.
THE 00Z...7PM MONDAY...SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THE FOLLOWING TRENDS.
THE NAM STILL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ITS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AND IS PRIMARILY A THURSDAY EVENT NOW. THE ECMWF IS
STILL THE BOLDEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT IT HAS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA SOUTHEAST...WITH VERY LITTLE OF IT SKIRTING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TO KEEP A LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO DRASTIC
OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS...THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER CONFIDENCE IS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL STILL HAVE A DRY AND
COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE REPRESENTED BY A DRY FORECAST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOIST NE
850 MB FLOW...HAVE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EST MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THEIR ENSEMBLES...THE ECMWF AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE GFS...ARE FURTHER WEST WITH A REX BLOCK/CLOSED
UPPER LOW THAT FIRST PINCHES APART FROM THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES GO
AROUND OUR REGION...BUT THIS STILL MEANS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN...NUMEROUS CLOUDS AND CHILLY AIR AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. FOLLOWING ITS BIAS...THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...HOWEVER EVEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS THROWS QPF
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY, THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH
MENTIONABLE POPS GREATER THAN 24 PERCENT IN THE FVX/LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL RUNS...ITS
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL END UP FURTHER WEST
INTO SW VA. IN THIS WEDGY REGIME WITH ENOUGH H85 RH...BOTH THE
ECMWF MOS AND THE MEX MOS LOOK SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS
AND SEVERAL TOO COLD ON MINS. THEREFORE REDUCED THE DIURNAL RANGE
OF TEMPS...WITH SOME SPOTS STUCK IN THE 40S FOR MAX T BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRUGGLING TO FIND ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW...PERHAPS ENOUGH UPSLOPE COOLING LATE AT NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW
TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SE WEST VA OR NW NC.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM EST TUESDAY...
RADAR SHOWED BACK EDGE OF BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF A LINE FROM BUENA VISTA
TO MARTINSVILLE. THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING. MODELS WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION...ENDING IT AT LYH AND DAN BY 15Z/10AM. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
ROA/LYH AND DAN TO BE VFR BY 17Z/NOON. NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEAKEN TODAY AND TURN TO THE
NORTH...SO EVEN BLF AND LWB WILL BE VFR BY 18Z/1PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE ORGANIZED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
717 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST TUESDAY...
AT 4AM COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
SHORT WAVE AXIS CROSSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
00Z LOCAL WRF ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUC AND SREF GUIDANCE HELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS SHOWED DRY WEATHER AFTER 18Z/1PM.
NARROW BAND OF STRATUS IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO TENNESSEE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STARTING OUT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAVE USED COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS A
STARTING POINT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE ECMWF FOR A FEW DAYS NOW HAS HAD THE BOLDEST SOLUTION ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...AND EVEN EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM HAS HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS SCENARIO.
UNTIL THE 12Z...7AM MONDAY SOLUTION...THE GFS KEPT ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT TOO HINTED
AT SOME PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THE ECWMF SOLUTION DID.
THE 00Z...7PM MONDAY...SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THE FOLLOWING TRENDS.
THE NAM STILL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ITS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AND IS PRIMARILY A THURSDAY EVENT NOW. THE ECMWF IS
STILL THE BOLDEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT IT HAS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA SOUTHEAST...WITH VERY LITTLE OF IT SKIRTING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TO KEEP A LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO DRASTIC
OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS...THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER CONFIDENCE IS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL STILL HAVE A DRY AND
COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE REPRESENTED BY A DRY FORECAST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOIST NE
850 MB FLOW...HAVE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EST MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THEIR ENSEMBLES...THE ECMWF AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE GFS...ARE FURTHER WEST WITH A REX BLOCK/CLOSED
UPPER LOW THAT FIRST PINCHES APART FROM THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES GO
AROUND OUR REGION...BUT THIS STILL MEANS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN...NUMEROUS CLOUDS AND CHILLY AIR AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. FOLLOWING ITS BIAS...THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...HOWEVER EVEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS THROWS QPF
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY, THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH
MENTIONABLE POPS GREATER THAN 24 PERCENT IN THE FVX/LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL RUNS...ITS
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL END UP FURTHER WEST
INTO SW VA. IN THIS WEDGY REGIME WITH ENOUGH H85 RH...BOTH THE
ECMWF MOS AND THE MEX MOS LOOK SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS
AND SEVERAL TOO COLD ON MINS. THEREFORE REDUCED THE DIURNAL RANGE
OF TEMPS...WITH SOME SPOTS STUCK IN THE 40S FOR MAX T BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRUGGLING TO FIND ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW...PERHAPS ENOUGH UPSLOPE COOLING LATE AT NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW
TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SE WEST VA OR NW NC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM EST TUESDAY...
RADAR SHOWED BACK EDGE OF BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THAT
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF A LINE FROM BUENA VISTA
TO MARTINSVILLE. THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING. MODELS WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION...ENDING IT AT LYH AND DAN BY 15Z/10AM. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
ROA/LYH AND DAN TO BE VFR BY 17Z/NOON. NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEAKEN TODAY AND TURN TO THE
NORTH...SO EVEN BLF AND LWB WILL BE VFR BY 18Z/1PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE ORGANIZED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST TUESDAY...
AT 4AM COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
SHORT WAVE AXIS CROSSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
00Z LOCAL WRF ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUC AND SREF GUIDANCE HELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS SHOWED DRY WEATHER AFTER 18Z/1PM.
NARROW BAND OF STRATUS IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO TENNESSEE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STARTING OUT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAVE USED COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS A
STARTING POINT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE ECMWF FOR A FEW DAYS NOW HAS HAD THE BOLDEST SOLUTION ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...AND EVEN EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM HAS HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS SCENARIO.
UNTIL THE 12Z...7AM MONDAY SOLUTION...THE GFS KEPT ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT TOO HINTED
AT SOME PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THE ECWMF SOLUTION DID.
THE 00Z...7PM MONDAY...SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THE FOLLOWING TRENDS.
THE NAM STILL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ITS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AND IS PRIMARILY A THURSDAY EVENT NOW. THE ECMWF IS
STILL THE BOLDEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT IT HAS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA SOUTHEAST...WITH VERY LITTLE OF IT SKIRTING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TO KEEP A LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO DRASTIC
OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS...THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER CONFIDENCE IS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL STILL HAVE A DRY AND
COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE REPRESENTED BY A DRY FORECAST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOIST NE
850 MB FLOW...HAVE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EST MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THEIR ENSEMBLES...THE ECMWF AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE GFS...ARE FURTHER WEST WITH A REX BLOCK/CLOSED
UPPER LOW THAT FIRST PINCHES APART FROM THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES GO
AROUND OUR REGION...BUT THIS STILL MEANS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN...NUMEROUS CLOUDS AND CHILLY AIR AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. FOLLOWING ITS BIAS...THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...HOWEVER EVEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS THROWS QPF
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY, THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH
MENTIONABLE POPS GREATER THAN 24 PERCENT IN THE FVX/LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL RUNS...ITS
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL END UP FURTHER WEST
INTO SW VA. IN THIS WEDGY REGIME WITH ENOUGH H85 RH...BOTH THE
ECMWF MOS AND THE MEX MOS LOOK SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS
AND SEVERAL TOO COLD ON MINS. THEREFORE REDUCED THE DIURNAL RANGE
OF TEMPS...WITH SOME SPOTS STUCK IN THE 40S FOR MAX T BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRUGGLING TO FIND ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW...PERHAPS ENOUGH UPSLOPE COOLING LATE AT NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW
TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SE WEST VA OR NW NC.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EST MONDAY...
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THIS HOUR ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM EKN-BLF-MKJ.
SCT-BKN -SHRA ACTIVITY NOTED GENERALLY JUST AHEAD TO ABOUT 50
MILES BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BREAK UP AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH
ONLY SCT ACTIVITY REACHING THE LYH-DAN AREA. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT ONLY A
LIMITED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN -SHRA...AFTERWARD VFR
VSBYS. FRONT SHOULD REACH BCB 02-03Z...ROA 03-04Z...AND LYH- DAN
IN THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME. WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 170-190 RANGE AT
7-10KTS WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BECOMING
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...MOSTLY 5-8KTS. SOME LOW END GUSTS AND
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS EXPECTED FOR 1-2 HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP LYH-DAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW AND CAA LWB-BLF...BREAKING UP BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL START TO SPREAD MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
241 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
241 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH THE GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE NOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWED
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S....WITH A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. THE ZONAL FLOW HAS HELPED TO SPREAD WARMER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...REFLECTED BY THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING 850MB TEMP WHICH
CLIMBED FROM -13C AT 00Z TO -6C AT 12Z. EVEN WARMER AIR WAS PRESENT
TO THE WEST AT BIS AND ABR WHICH WERE AROUND -1C. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT...FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND DRY
AIR SHOWN TOO ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 30S AFTER A CHILLY DAY YESTERDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED A MASS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA....DOWNSTREAM OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES IN THE PLAINS. RADAR IMAGERY EVEN HAS SOME LIGHT DBZ
ECHOES BUT ARE ALL JUST VIRGA DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CHICAGO TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO TO PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS
SLATED TO CROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK...BEST UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION STAYS
OFF TO OUR NORTH. WE DO HAVE A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...AND
285-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT PLOTS REFLECT THAT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LIFT.
IF THERE IS ANY JUXTAPOSITION OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALONG A
STRETCH BETWEEN RED WING AND TAYLOR COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MOST 13.12Z MODEL QPF OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE 13.15Z SREF MEAN SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST LIKE WE HAD GOING...BUT
THE 13.12Z GEM REGIONAL DOES HAVE LIGHT QPF. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
SUGGESTION FROM THE MODELS TO HAVE AT LEAST A FLURRY MENTION.
NOTE...THOUGH...THERE IS A WARM LAYER AROUND 2000 FT WHICH COULD
MELT THE FLURRIES INTO SPRINKLES. WET-BULBING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WOULD NOT BE APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE SPRINKLES TO FREEZE IF THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CANNOT CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. OUTSIDE OF THIS VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
PROGGED TO OCCUR WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS...BUT THE SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FOR THEM IN WISCONSIN COULD
ALLOW THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S BEFORE
CLIMBING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD BE NEAR 30 FOR LOWS. WARMER
850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY OF 0-2C COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
YIELD WARMER HIGHS AS WELL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED
REASONABLE...YIELDING MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS DEPICT A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER...TO DROP DOWN INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE
HEADS UP INTO HUDSON BAY BY LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE IS
FAR FROM US...THERE IS A WEAKER SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SHORTWAVE
THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE AT THE SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...THERE IS A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN IN PLACE WITH AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT
FIELDS THIS TIME DO NOT DEPICT ANY LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER REMAINS DRY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS...THE DRY
FORECAST REMAINS. ALSO SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...THERE IS A PERIOD OF
PARTIAL CLEARING WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COME
IN TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. THUS...SOME SITES IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN AGAIN COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S BEFORE CLIMBING WITH
THE CLOUD INCREASE. LOWER TO MID 30S LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL
ELSEWHERE. SOME AFTERNOON SUN ON THURSDAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE 0-2C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS OF
STRENGTHENING UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA IS ENCOMPASSED BY A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. CLEARING SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING TO NEAR ONE THIRD OF AN INCH AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS...STAYED
TOWARDS THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WHICH COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S. SUNNY SKIES
ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SHOULD
LEAD TO A DECENT TEMPERATURE RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE...WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPS EXIST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
241 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
13.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGING PRETTY MUCH DOMINATING THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEEP EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND SOME WEAK
SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SETUP SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FROM FRIDAY JUST
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 2C EAST TO 4C WEST
RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER WISCONSIN
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR QUICK TEMPERATURE DROPS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK....THERE ARE ISSUES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP WITH
THE HANDLING OF THAT DEEP EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. ALL MODELS HAVE THE
TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON MONDAY...BUT THE 13.06Z/12Z GFS DRIVE MUCH
OF IT INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AS A BROAD TROUGH. COMPARE THIS TO THE
13.00Z ECMWF AND 13.12Z CANADIAN WHICH ARE MORE LIFT A LOT UP INTO
CANADA WHICH RESULTS IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. INTERESTINGLY...THE
NEW 13.12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO. GIVEN THE
ECMWF TREND...HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE IN THE GFS/ECMWF DIRECTION.
THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT US FROM THE
PLAINS...WITH VARYING INTENSITY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THAT UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN
AHEAD OF IT...THUS HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR SOUTH OF I-90
MONDAY NIGHT AND AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY. THE GENERAL WARM AIRMASS
SHOULD KEEP THE TYPE AS RAIN. REGARDING TEMPS...850MB TEMPS HOLD IN
THE 2-4C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS STILL IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...WITH THE MODEL TREND ON THE EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE HANGING AROUND THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION THUS LOOKS ON TAP...WITH EITHER RAIN OR
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THE TYPE. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS
THINGS IRON THEMSELVES OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
1047 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
FOCUS IS ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING VFR ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA.
THERE WERE ALSO A FEW RADAR RETURNS OUT OF THESE CLOUDS BUT
APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION WAS EVAPORATING BELOW THE CLOUD BASE PER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AS THIS WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN ALTOCUMULUS AT THE KRST/KLSE
AIRPORTS...BECOMING BROKEN-OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BASES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8KFT AT BOTH SITES. ALTOCUMULUS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 13-15Z TIME
FRAME. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IN THE
8-10KT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
241 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 PM CST MON NOV 12 2012
.UPDATE...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WORKING IN BETWEEN MAIN VORT MAX OVER ERN U.P.
OF MICHIGAN AND WEAKER VORT OVER NRN IN/SRN LOWER MI BORDER ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE SCOURED OUT CLOUDS OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOKING FOR STRATOCU DECK WRAPPING AROUND
STRONGER NORTHERN VORT MAX TO CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE HAS CLOUDS
OUT OF ALL BUT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM WIND POINT NORTH AROUND
12Z TUESDAY...WITH ALL CLOUDS GONE BY 1330Z TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT OF SLOWER CLEARING...HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN
THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. STILL EXPECT WESTERN AREAS TO COOL
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAVE PUSHED A WEDGE OF CLEARING ACROSS A
PORTION OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOKING FOR VFR STRATOCU DECK
WRAPPING AROUND NORTHERN VORT MAX TO CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COVERING ALL THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT KENW. EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE HAS IT REACHING KMSN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z...KUES BETWEEN 1130Z AND 12Z...AND KMKE AROUND
1230Z. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH CLEARING...BUT GUSTY NATURE OF
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AT EASTERN SITES THOUGH SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARM-AIR
ADVECTION CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT POSSIBLY REACHING KMSN BY 06Z
AND KMKE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT WITH MID-LAKE BUOY
STILL REPORTING 7-FOOT WAVES AND SHORELINE OB WINDS STILL GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS SUPPORTING 5 FOOT WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS. 00Z NAM
...RAP AS WELL AS HRRR SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO FALL TO 4 FEET OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST MON NOV 12 2012/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
BROKEN AND NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
WISCONSIN DELLS TO NORTHWEST OF BOSCOBEL CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND...IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER...WOULD SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS AND OTHER SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE BAND MENTIONED EARLIER HAS PRODUCED LOW VISIBILITIES
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST...AND COULD BRING A DUSTING
OF SNOW. HOWEVER...DID NOT MENTION ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AS THIS AREA
IS BROKEN AND SKINNY AND MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BY EVENING SHIFT. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE MORE
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT THE THIN NATURE OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THEM TO CLEAR OUT. CHILLY LOWS SHOULD TUMBLE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED
PER NAM 925MB TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WE WILL BE UNDER AN EXCEPTIONALLY STABLE PATTERN FOR A TIME OF
YEAR THAT CHARACTERISTICALLY ISN/T. BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
TROF COMES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP IT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE
AND NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING...AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. ONE BROKEN BAND OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF TAF
SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 04Z TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS TIME...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1136 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST - TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
21Z RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS CAUSED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 MPH...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF THE WEST THAN
WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
JL
LONG TERM - THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL SEE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM
THROUGH A MOISTURE STARVED REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED
TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY IN A ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AND MERGE
WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS
WILL BE A DEEPER SYSTEM...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE TWO WAVES MERGE AND STRENGTHEN...EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN 19Z-23Z.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A SECONDARY AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1037-MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC. THIS
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TDA. AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MRNG AND
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN/TNGT. HI-LVL CS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF
TDA. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
PERSISTING AROUND 4KFT TDA. BENEATH THIS INVERSION...MOISTURE
BETWEEN 3-4 KFT AGL WILL REMAIN TRAPPED WHILE LGT ELY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT STRATUS DECK INLAND THIS MRNG. THE STRATUS
DECK...WHICH HAS SPREAD WEST OF I-95 AS OF 08Z...WILL ENHANCE CLOUD
COVER TDA FROM THE BLUE RIDGE-EWD. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MTS
LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND BACK EDGE OF CS
PROGRESS EWD.
DESPITE WAA IN THE LLVLS...CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS THIS AFTN NOT
MUCH WARMER THAN YDA...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MIN TEMPS TNGT RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO UPPER 30S IN THE
CITIES AND ALONG WRN SHORE OF THE BAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A S/WV AXIS WL CROSS THE CWFA FRI. FUNCTIONALLY...ITS MERELY A
DIVIDER BTWN TWO AREAS OF HIPRES DOMINATING THE GRTLKS AND NEW
ENGLAND. IT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY MSTR-STARVED...AND SHUD SUPPORT
VARYING AMTS OF MID-HIGH LVL CLDS. THE LATTER RDG WL BE OVER THE
NERN CONUS BY SAT.
H8 TEMPS CHG LTL THRU THE PD...BUT H10-8 TKNS VALUES SUGGEST
MODERATION OF THE LLVLS. THAT/LL PERMIT MAXT TO COME CLSR TO
CLIMO...AS REFLECTED IN LTST MOS. MIN-T A LTL TRICKIER...AS DEWPTS
LOW. CLDCVR WL DICTATE HOW LOW MIN-T CAN GET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GDNC CONTG TO PLACE INCRSG EMPHASIS ON HIPRES RDG IN THE NERN CONUS
INFLUENCING WX IN THE MID ATLC. THEREFORE...ANY CYCLOGENESIS WL BE
WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE S. LCLLY...THAT MEANS IMPACTS WL BE
LESS...AND WL CONT TREND FM YDA OF SCALING POPS BACK SAT NGT-MON.
WUDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ENTIRE WKND DRY...BUT ATTM WL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A 20-30 PCT CHC RA E OF I-95 SUN NGT-MON. THAT TOO CAN BE
RMVD IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST. ONE THING THAT CANT BE DISCOUNTED
JUST YET THO IS THE EXTENT OF LLVL CLDS/DZ WORKING INLAND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A NELY FLOW CAN BE MAINTAINED. WL HV
MOCLDY SKIES SHEN VLY EWD SUN NGT-MON AS A CONSEQUENCE. TEMPS
REMAIN AOB NRML GIVEN N/NELY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC STRATUS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 KFT HAS MOVED WWD ERY THIS MRNG INTO
DCA/BWI/MTN/IAD. LATEST HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE HAS STRATUS REMAINING
EAST OF MRB/CHO. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTN. LGT NLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS MRNG WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NELY THIS AFTN AND TNGT.
VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU SAT UNDER HIPRES.
HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLND SUN-MON COMBINED W/ WK DVLPG LOPRES OFF THE
SE CONUS WL LEAD TO NELY FLOW. ITS STILL TBD HOW MUCH MSTR CAN WORK
INLAND. AT LEAST OCNL FLGT RESTRICTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE...W/ IFR CIGS
PSBL.
&&
.MARINE...
LGT N-NE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 10 KT TDA AND TNGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS TO 15 KT LIKELY IN THE MAIN STEM OF THE CHSPK BAY.
NLY FLOW GNLY AOB 10 KT THRU SAT...ALTHO MID BAY MAY BE CLSR TO
10-15 KT. ANY GUSTS SHUD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.
SUN-MON A BIT MORE QSTNBL...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF P-GRAD BTWN
HIPRES OVR NEW ENGLAND AND DVLPG LOPRES OFF THE SERN CONUS. IF SCA
WERE TO BE REQD...MID BAY/TANGIER SOUND/MOUTH OF THE PTMC APPEAR
MORE FVRBL. WL CARRY THAT POTL IN THE HWO.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...JRK/HTS
MARINE...JRK/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PRETTY QUIET WESTERLY SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WITH MINIMAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS OR RISES NOTED UPSTREAM. STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW IS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS STRONG. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN CENTRAL MANITOBA AND
INTO SINGLE NUMBERS BACK OVR SASKATCHEWAN. BATCH OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MANITOBA...BUT NOT MUCH IS
OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ONLY OTHER SHORTWAVE
RELATIVELY CLOSE BY IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DESPITE DRY
LOW-LEVELS SEEN OVER AREA LAST DAY...THIS WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME LGT SHRA OVER ECNTRL MN WITHIN LAST 2 HOURS. OVER UPR
MICHIGAN IT IS ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A LOT OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.
TEMPS IN MANY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS A TYPICAL
NORMAL HIGH TEMP FOR 15 NOVEMBER AKA THE FIRE ARM RIFLE DEER HUNTING
OPENER FOR MICHIGAN.
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PRESSES EAST TODAY...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND SFC COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON UPR MICHIGAN
LATE TODAY. UNTIL ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER...APPEARS WE COULD HAVE MAKING OF FAIRLY WARM DAY. MID
CLOUDS ALREADY TRYING TO SCT OUT OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CWA THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WI BORDER THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE
OVR MN MAY PUSH CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN
THIS MORNING AND EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES TOWARD KIMT. MIXING TO
925MB SUPPORTS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S BY MID AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SW
WINDS PUSHING READINGS INTO LOWER 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL IF
CLOUDS ARE DELAYED. BY MID AFTN...EXPECT MID CLOUDS /H8-H7 RH/ TO
BUILD BACK OVER CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE BATCH OF CLOUDS JUST
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO CWA FROM ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE AND UVM WITHIN ICE
NUCLEATION ZONE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AFT 21Z. SREF/HIGHER RES
MODELS FROM NCEP AND NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW AGREE PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTS
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE. DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES 1000-H85 LAPSE
RATES OVR MUCH OF EAST HALF AHEAD OF FRONT...SO ALSO ADDED ISOLD
MENTION AS FAR WEST AS MARQUETTE/DELTA COUNTIES. PTYPE ONLY RAIN AS
WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE WELL ABOVE 1KFT AGL. ONLY POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT COUNTY IN
EVENING...BUT MOST OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHOULD DONE BY THIS TIME.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A PORTION OF COLD AIR SEEN UPSTREAM WILL
MAKE RUN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND INTO UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS A SHALLOW
COLDER AIRMASS OVR MANITOBA AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COLDER THAN THOSE AT
850MB. SETUP TONIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN NO DIFFERENT. NORTHWEST WINDS
IN WAKE OF FRONT EVENTUALLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS SFC HIGH
CURRENTLY OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS A RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. NORTH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUB H85 MOISTURE SEEN ON UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS AT YQD /CNTRL MANITOBA/ AND YSM /NORTHWEST TERRITORIES/
ALONG WITH LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION /TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP
AROUND -7C/ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GOING FCST OF FZDZ OR FLURRIES OVR
HIGHLANDS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...PREFER
TO GO COLDER WITH MINS TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW INVERSION/STABLE TEMP
PROFILE. MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WEST/CNTRL WITH NEAR 30
FOR EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WX IS IN STORE THRU THIS WEEKEND AS A ZONAL
FLOW OF RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR DOMINATES.
FRI...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO MOVE FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO TO
AN A LINE FM UPR MI INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT AS H5 RDG BUILDS OVER
THE UPR LKS. PREFER THE CLOUDIER NAM DEPICTION OF EVENTS GIVEN FCST
SHARP INVNR ARND 3K FT ENHANCED BY SHALLOW COLD INFUSION AND
TRAPPING LLVL AIRMASS MOISTENED IN PASSAGE OVER LK SUP. ONCE THE HI
PRES RDG PASSES TO THE E...EXPECT STUBBORN LO CLDS TO BREAK UP AS
THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. BUT OVER THE NCNTRL...THIS WSHFT IS NOT
FCST TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SO SUSPECT THE DAY WL BE MOCLDY
IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME MRNG -FZDZ OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NCENTRAL WHERE LLVL N VEERING E WIND UPSLOPES AND LLVL MSTR REMAINS
TRAPPED BLO SHARP INVRN BTWN H9-925 MAINTAINED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE. EVEN OVER THE W... FCST LIGHT WINDS SUG THE LO CLD
MAY BE QUITE TENACIOUS GIVEN SHARP LO INVRN BASE THAT TRAPS THE LLVL
MSTR. AREAS FM IWD-ONTONAGON- KEWEENAW PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING SOME CLRG WITH A MORE PRONOUCNED DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
DVLPG E FLOW OFF LK MI WL ALSO BRING ABOUT MORE SC OVER THE
SCENTRAL...BUT THERE MAY SOME PARTIAL CLRG OVER THE E WITH
DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO AND LOSS OF LK MOISTENING COMPONENT. WITH
PLENTY OF CLD COVER LINGERING ALL DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV 32 ACRS THE HIER TERRAIN IN THAT AREA.
FRI NGT...AS HI SHIFTS TO THE E...THE LLVL WINDS WL VEER MORE TO THE
S. IN CONCERT WITH INVRN SINKING CLOSER TO THE SFC AS SHOWN BY NAM
FCST SDNGS...THIS FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SKY TO BECOME CLR TO PCLDY.
DESPITE THE CLRG...INCRSG S WINDS WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL AT LEAST OVER THE W. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE AOB 10 KTS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE NGT. WITH PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH...TENDED AOB THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH SOME HI CLDS
MIGHT ARRIVE OVERNGT IN MORE WSW FLOW ALF.
SAT THRU SUN...THE UPR GRT LKS WL BE DOMINATED BY STEADY SW FLOW
BTWN HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES TROF IN THE
PLAINS DOWNWIND OF DEEPENING WRN TROF. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING SSW
LLVL FLOW...MODELS ADVERTISE LTL MOISTENING IN THE LO-MID LVLS. BUT
WSW FLOW ALF WL BRING SCT-BKN HI CLDS. TEMPS WL AVG ABOVE NORMAL
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS FCST FM 1 TO 4C. THE HIEST TEMPS
SHOULD BE OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP ON SUN DESPITE SOME
THICKER HI CLD.
EXTENDED...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW FM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS ON WRN FLANK OF HI PRES OVER THE NE
CONUS MAY TAP MORE MOIST AIRMASS BY MON. AS DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHRTWVS EJECT FM THE WRN TROF EWD TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SCHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MON
THRU WED. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE TROF OUT
W LONGER...SO LATER UPDATES MAY TREND TOWARD DRIER WX. TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL ABV THE SEASONAL NORM WITH PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING UNDER
WSW FLOW ALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS
ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS VEER FROM SSW TO
NNW BY EVENING EXPECT CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR...LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME DZ OR -FZDZ/FLURRIES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KSAW BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW AND ANY PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
EXPECT S-SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FNT TO SHIFT TO THE N-NW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES W-E ACROSS THE LAKE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE
NCENTRAL LAKE WITH TERRAIN BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW
ENHANCING EXPECTED WSW WIND. APPROACH OF TRAILING HI PRES WILL THEN
CAUSE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS BY FRI WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI
NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LAKE SUP WILL BE
DOMINATED BY S WINDS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A
LO PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS. THE STRONGEST S WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS S/W ENERGY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO JUST WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK SFC RIDGE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...PROVIDING A MORE
CONSISTENT E TO SE SFC WIND PATTERN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CIGS AROUND 3000 TO 6000 FT FROM VCNTY OF KDRT TO KUVA TONIGHT
WILL SPREAD SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST AFTER 09Z THROUGH 18Z TO NEAR
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KPEZ TO KSAT TO KERV. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 25 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED VCNTY OF KAUS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
AFTER 18Z ON THURSDAY SCT CLOUDS FROM 5 THSD TO 10 THSD FT ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER CIRRUS SCT TO BKN AT OR ABOVE 25 THSD FT.
BY THURSDAY EVENING SFC WINDS WILL BECOME E TO NE...AS THE S/W
FROM WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CAUSES A WEAK RIDGE TO FORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERNS WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10 THSD FT AND SCT TO BKN HIGHER CIRRUS
AT OR ABOVE 25 THSD FT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012/
UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT AND REST OF TONIGHT WEATHER TRENDS. LATEST 00Z NAM12 AND
03Z RUC13 AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST/MAINTAIN A 850MB
BKN/OVC CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HILL COUNTRY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS AUGMENT AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES FROM WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OF DEL RIO TO
SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE AND SOUTH TO THE COAST. CIGS ACROSS
THIS AREA ARE VFR. TO THE NORTH SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING. KAUS,
KSAT, KSSF AND KDRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. AS S/W ENERGY
MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...PROVIDING A MORE
CONSISTENT E TO SE SFC WIND PATTERN FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS COULD CAUSE CIGS AROUND 2500 TO 6000 FT TO FORM NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN VCNTY OF KDRT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KAUS, KSAT AND KSSF
THURSDAY MORNING. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AOB 10 THSD FT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY EVENING SFC WINDS WILL BECOME E TO NE...AS THE S/W FROM
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE MS VALLEY
AND CAUSES A WEAK RIDGE TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERNS WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR/ERODE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. OVERRUNNING WAS OCCURRING IN THE SWLY FLOW 5-8K FEET ABOVE
THE COOL DRY SURFACE RIDGE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL RETURN
MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER S TX WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ALL AREAS. A BRIEF
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT MAINLY NERN CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NE-E. THIS WEAK
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SWRN CWA AS WELL.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO SELY BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
NWLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FLOW. MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. A MORE POTENT
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST TX MONDAY AND ACROSS
SOUTH TX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. HAVE TONED DOWN GFS MOS POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT MORE IN
LINE WITH THE DRIER ECWMF AND PREVIOUS THINKING. CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND COOL NIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 40 68 44 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 34 68 40 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 67 45 67 38 / 0 0 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 66 41 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 68 51 65 48 / - 0 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 35 67 37 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 66 49 67 42 / 0 0 - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 40 66 44 67 39 / 0 0 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 68 42 67 39 / 0 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 65 49 66 43 / 0 0 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 66 51 66 44 / 0 0 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
751 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...CLOUD DECK HAS BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY BAND HAS SAGGED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO BOULDER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. DON`T
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION THOUGH EXCEPT SOME DUSTING OVER NORTHERN
WELD COUNTY. CHANGES TO FORECAST INCLUDE MORE CLOUDS AND GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED LIGHT SNOW A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENT FORECAT.
.AVIATION...SOLID STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER LOCAL TERMINALS AND
MAY EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT BJC AND DEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LATER CLEARING AND MAY SEE ILS CONDITIONS AT DEN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...STRATUS DECK HAS BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND IS NOW
COVERING ALL THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 FEET AGL. WILL DELAY CLEARING INTO THE 17Z-19Z TIME FRAME
GIVEN LATEST SOUNDINGS AND PER RUC FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS FORMED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHOWER
BAND...PROBABLY DUE TO COOLING FROM THE SHOWER OUTFLOW. CEILINGS
BETWEEN 025 AND 040 LIKELY AT KDEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...IT MAY GET INTO KBJC BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO NOT MAKE
IT TO KAPA. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO BREAK UP IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME AS THE SHOWERS FADE AND THE SURFACE WARMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...LITTLE SNOW BAND IN A WEAK FRONTOLYSIS ZONE THAT
WAS PARKED OVER THE LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT
HAS STARTED TO SAG SOUTH A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS GETS EAST OF
US...BUT IS ALSO STARTING TO FALL APART AND SHRINK AT BOTH THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
QG LIFT GOES AWAY AND DRIER AIR UNDERCUTS THE MID LEVEL LIFT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SHOWERS ENDING BY 15Z WHICH IS PROBABLY
ALRIGHT...I DID KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS ON THE TAIL END OF THE BAND WILL LIKELY
STILL BE OUT THERE. I ALSO SLOWED THE CLEARING ON THE PLAINS JUST
A LITTLE...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO BE GONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SURGE AND COOLER HIGHS TODAY APPEAR WELL HANDLED.
LONG TERM...NOT MUCH TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SLIPPING ACROSS COLORADO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP
THE LOWER ELEVATION MILD AND DRY. OVERALL...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE DENVER AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING REMAINING NORTH OF
DENVER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT
THE CURRENT WIND PATTERN TO BREAK DOWN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE DENVER AREA BY SUNRISE. WINDS MAY STILL BE
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT BY MIDDAY EXPECT
STEADIER NE-E WINDS THAT WILL ROTATE TO SLY DRAINAGE WINDS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WIND DIRECTION AT KDEN/KAPA FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT FOG THREAT APPEARS LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
717 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS DECK HAS BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND IS NOW
COVERING ALL THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 FEET AGL. WILL DELAY CLEARING INTO THE 17Z-19Z TIME FRAME
GIVEN LATEST SOUNDINGS AND PER RUC FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS FORMED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHOWER
BAND...PROBABLY DUE TO COOLING FROM THE SHOWER OUTFLOW. CEILINGS
BETWEEN 025 AND 040 LIKELY AT KDEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...IT MAY GET INTO KBJC BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO NOT MAKE
IT TO KAPA. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO BREAK UP IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME AS THE SHOWERS FADE AND THE SURFACE WARMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...LITTLE SNOW BAND IN A WEAK FRONTOLYSIS ZONE THAT
WAS PARKED OVER THE LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT
HAS STARTED TO SAG SOUTH A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS GETS EAST OF
US...BUT IS ALSO STARTING TO FALL APART AND SHRINK AT BOTH THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
QG LIFT GOES AWAY AND DRIER AIR UNDERCUTS THE MID LEVEL LIFT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SHOWERS ENDING BY 15Z WHICH IS PROBABLY
ALRIGHT...I DID KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS ON THE TAIL END OF THE BAND WILL LIKELY
STILL BE OUT THERE. I ALSO SLOWED THE CLEARING ON THE PLAINS JUST
A LITTLE...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO BE GONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SURGE AND COOLER HIGHS TODAY APPEAR WELL HANDLED.
LONG TERM...NOT MUCH TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SLIPPING ACROSS COLORADO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP
THE LOWER ELEVATION MILD AND DRY. OVERALL...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE DENVER AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING REMAINING NORTH OF
DENVER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT
THE CURRENT WIND PATTERN TO BREAK DOWN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE DENVER AREA BY SUNRISE. WINDS MAY STILL BE
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT BY MIDDAY EXPECT
STEADIER NE-E WINDS THAT WILL ROTATE TO SLY DRAINAGE WINDS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WIND DIRECTION AT KDEN/KAPA FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT FOG THREAT APPEARS LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1025 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUILDS EAST INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER IS THE FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. FIRST...VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON TRENDS
LATEST RAP SOUNDING...A GENERAL THICKENING OF THE CIRRUS IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. SECOND...IS A LAYER OF STRATOCU OVER
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT. THIS LAYER SHOULD STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH IT MAY SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY. THUS...GOING WITH A CLOUDY DAY EAST AND A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WEST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER AND KEPT IN THE
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE A
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE LATTER OF WHICH DISSIPATES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A
DRY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON FRI WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WHICH IS NEARLY SEASONABLE. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
FOLLOWED THE MOS GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR BOTH THE MORNING LOWS AND AFT
HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND QUIET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
OUTSIDE OF A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD STAYS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND A
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW SPLITS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM DIGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM DIPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...MODELS INDICATING IT CUTS OFF NEAR THE SE COAST...ON
SUNDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM AND INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF. THIS IS THE
FORCING FOR THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT TRACKS NORTHEAST.
THERE IS STILL A LOW POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING EAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE LAST FEW RUNS AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. 18Z GFS/GEFS
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ALL DEVELOP A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST AND KEEPS IT WELL OFFSHORE. 00Z GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS WEAK LOW
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THEN ALSO DEVELOPS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
AROUND THURSDAY...ALSO KEEPING THAT WELL OFFSHORE. SINCE THIS IS THE
FIRST SET OF MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE WEAKER
LOW...HAVE NOT COMPLETELY REMOVED THE POPS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE MON THROUGH WED TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE OF THIS SLIGHT
SCALE DOWN IN WINDS/POPS...LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WEAKENS LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...THEN IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WITH STRATO CU HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. CEILINGS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE
WEST...AND HAVE MADE IT TO KFRG AND KBDR. CONFIDENCE LOW ON JUST
HOW FAR WEST THE MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT. WILL TEMPO THE CIGS IN A
KJFK AND KLGA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MVFR CIGS. THE STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO
TRACK ON SATELLITE AS HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER
DECK.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SOME GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LATE THIS MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CIGS DEVELOP...EXPECT
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-3KFT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LATE THIS MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CIGS DEVELOP...EXPECT
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-3KFT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE
TODAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO
FRI...PRIMARILY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AROUND 5 FT. A PERSISTENT N/NE
FLOW AND A SE SWELL FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ARE THE REASONS FOR
THE HIGH SEAS.
A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA BUT NOT QUITE GALE STRENGTH. WAVES
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WAVES COULD BE A FEW FEET HIGHER AND
WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS HIGH WATER LEVELS
AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING WITH LEVELS A FEW
INCHES HIGHER THAN THOSE OBSERVED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A PROLONGED NE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT MAY LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN
HISTORICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. THE THREAT OF A STRONG COASTAL
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT UPTON NEW YORK
/KOKX/ IS UNAVAILABLE. THE RADAR MAY BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR UP TO 2
WEEKS. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/DW
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...LN/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1058 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK H100-H85 TROF CENTERED OFF THE
GA/SC COAST TRAILING BACK ACRS THE N GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
W/NW LOW/MID LVL FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE
TROF HAS ALLOWED A DENSE LYR OF STRATUS TO PERSIST ACRS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.
MORNING RAOBS SHOWED PWAT VALUES ACRS THE STATE BTWN 0.8"-1.1"...BUT
WITH WIDE VARIANCE IN DISTRIBUTION THRU THE COLUMN THAT WELL DEPICT
THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY. KJAX/KTAE MORNING RAOBS SHOW A STOUT
INVERSION IN THE H100-H95 LYR...BOTH SATURATED THRU THE H80 LYR.
INVERSION DISAPPEARS ON THE KTBW-KXMR SOUNDINGS THOUGH HIGH MOISTURE
LVLS ARE APPARENT THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. KMFL SHOWED LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR MIX DOWN OVER S FL
THAT WILL ERODE THE STRATUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THRU THE AFTN. MID
MORNING TEMPS REFLECT THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...L/M70S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP...L/M60S WHERE THE
CLOUDS REMAIN.
WITH DENSE LOW LVL CLOUDS HOLDING FIRM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...HAD TO
REWORK POPS TO REFLECT HIGHER CHANCES WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN
UP AND LOW LVL HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. W/NW FLOW THRU THE
LOW/MID LVLS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA...WILL GO WITH SHRAS
INSTEAD. DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS TO REFLECT CLOUD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 15/18Z...IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN LOW STRATUS/MIST/FOG N OF
KVRB/KOBE...PREVAILING VFR S OF KVRB WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS. BTWN
15/18Z-15/20Z...P6SM ALL SITES...AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030 N OF
KTIX-KISM. BTWN 15/20Z-16/04Z...VFR ALL SITES...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN
FL035-050. AFT 16/04Z...IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS DVLPG ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NNW WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS AND SEAS TO 7 FT
OFFSHORE WILL NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS ARE
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL ACROSS THE NRN BREVARD/VOLUSIA WATERS BUT
HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NRN MARINE AREAS
BASED ON RECENT 41009 WIND/SEA TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
MARINE/IMPACT WX......VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW HAS
BEEN PASSING TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS NOW PASSED OUR
LONGITUDE AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND BEGINS TO PIVOT UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
UNDER INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS SUBSIDENCE
OVER-TOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PROVIDED A GOOD SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG SEEN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THE WEAKER MID-NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE WILL NOT AID IN ANY
RAPID DISSIPATION OF THIS LAYER...AND WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO PERSIST IN SPOTS LIKELY INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS BEFORE
ANY SIGNIFICANT BURN OFF COMMENCES. LATEST NARRE (NORTH AMERICAN
RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE) CEILING PROBABILITIES ARE IN LINE WITH THIS
THINKING AND 12Z TAF PACKAGE HAS BEEN PREPARED ACCORDINGLY.
ONCE THE LOW STRATUS BURNS OFF...WILL BE LOOKING FOR A FAIR AND
GENERALLY DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON JUST WHEN WE SEE THE SUN BREAK THROUGH AND
THE RESULTING POTENTIAL LOSS IN TOTAL INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH A LATE MORNING/MIDDAY BURN OFF EXPECTED...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO MIX OUT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-4 AND
MID/UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE STRATUS ON THE GOES-E CLOUD THICKNESS HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPS/SKY COVER GRIDS AS NECESSARY.
FOR TONIGHT...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DIGS
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANY SYNOPTIC
LIFT/SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT ARRIVE FOR OUR
AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN BE WEAK.
THEREFORE STILL ANTICIPATE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE MAY AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE/EXTENT SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE THE TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY
IF THE STRATUS COVERAGE IS MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AFTER 15/16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF LAL...PGD...RSW AND FMY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS COULD REACH EXERCISE CAUTION...POSSIBLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 61 78 61 / 10 10 20 20
FMY 82 62 81 62 / 10 10 20 20
GIF 79 58 77 59 / 20 10 20 20
SRQ 79 60 79 61 / 10 10 20 20
BKV 77 54 77 55 / 10 10 20 20
SPG 78 63 78 63 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1014 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WDSPRD CLDNS OVR THE RGN RIGHT NOW...AND LIKELY TO CONT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. WK/DE-AMPLIFYING S/W TRACKING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS W/ WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHR CONTG TO SPREAD MSTR NWD INTO
THE RGN. LGT RA HAVING DIFFICULTY SPREADING N THROUGH CNTRL/ERN
NC. LATEST RUC FOLLOWS CURRENT FCST IN KEEPING RA MNLY S OF THE
VA/NC BRDR LATER TDA INTO TNGT AS SYS EXITS OFF THE CST. MINOR
ADJSTMNTS MADE TO TEMPS...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U40S-ARND 50F W OF
I95...TO RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO THE E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEST LO LVL MOISTURE/LIFT FCST RMN INVOF SE VA AND NE NC WHERE
CURRENT POPS OF 30-40% STILL LUK GOOD FOR TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SLGT CHC POPS OF 20% WILL COME INTO A LINE EXTENDING FM
AVC-JGG-OXB. LOWS TNGT RANGING FM THE LWR 30S TO THE LWR 40S.
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS THE GRT LKS AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRI AFTN THRU SAT. WHILE MOISTURE RIBBON WILL LINGER
INVOF THE CSTL CAROLINAS FM FRI AFTN THRU SAT...THE HI PRES SHOULD
KEEP OUR WX DRY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MORE CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE
OVER NE NC. OTHRWISE...EXPECT A PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY SKY ACRS MUCH
OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.
LOWS FRI NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S TO ARND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING PROGRESS OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES INITIALLY AS MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING, WITH A PIECE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM NORTHERN STREAM AND DROPPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US SAT-SUN, EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A
AMPLIFYING/DIGGING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES SPRING FROM THERE, WITH BULK OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS FORECAST PERTAINING TO EXTENT OF DIGGING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SFC CYCLOGENESIS (DEVELOPING SFC LOW) ALONG THE SE COAST BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF (12Z) REMAINS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WOULD SERVE TO BRING POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST THAN THE
FARTHER OFFSHORE GFS SOLUTION. STILL, APPEARS AS IF MODELS DO AGREE
THAT BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL REMAIN CONFINED OFFSHORE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO CONTINUE RAMPING RAIN CHCS SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHEST (~50%) POP ACROSS COASTAL ZONES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWER (SLIGHT TO LOW CHC AT BEST) RAIN CHCS SUN/SUN
NIGHT WEST OF I-95.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, ECMWF ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A RATHER
SHARP REX BLOCKING TYPE SIGNATURE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WOULD SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST
MON-TUE, SLIDING BEST RAIN CHCS OFFSHORE WITH IT, THE PROGRESS OF
NEXT MID-UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE MIDWEST WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL NE FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, WENT WITH MOSTLY
CLDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK IN DIGITAL
DB, WITH LOW RAIN CHCS ACROSS COASTAL ZONES (DRY INLAND). CLOUDS
WOULD KEEP TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOWS IN THE 30S INLAND TO L40S AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN/OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION...WITH 2-3 K FT CIGS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER TO 1-2 K FT BETWEEN 09-15Z. SOUNDINGS AND
CURRENT OBS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANCE FOR CIGS TO DROP BELOW 1 K FT
(IFR) BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE ALONG THE COAST. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
N/NE AVERAGING 10-15 KT AT KORF/KECG AND 10 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
HAVE ADDED -RA TO KECG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...CHANCE FOR -RA ELSEWHERE
AS WELL BUT GENLY SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ESPECIALLY
SE VA/NE NC. CLEARING/VFR FRI...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SAT-SUN. N/NE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGHOUT...AND
WILL TEND TO INCREASE AGAIN SUN/MON CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N/NE FLOW 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN THE UPPER BAY AND RIVERS
OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER JAMES. SEAS OVER ATLANTIC COAST ZONES STILL AVG
5-7 FT...WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAY 3-4 FT. LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ALL GENLY AGREE THAT THE SURGE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS OFF A LITTLE MORE SO SCA`S OVER BAY/SND SLATED TO
COME DOWN THIS EVENING...WHILE SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 FT OR HIGHER. A BIT OF A LULL IN
THE GRADIENT FRI-SAT...BUT STILL WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE AT LEAST
CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND SO IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL BOATING THROUGHOUT THE REGION (SCA`S WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR 4-5 FT SEAS).
LATER SAT INTO SUN SUN/MON...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...AS ANOTHER AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. RE-TIGHTENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS (POSSIBLY RAMPING UP TO LOW
END GALES BY LATE SUNDAY ON THE COAST). WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS AVG 6-9 FT ON THE COAST...WITH WAVES IN THE BAY 3-5 FT SUN-MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONTINUED N/NE WINDS 15-20 KT TODAY ACRS MUCH OF THE MARINE
AREA...AND HAVE HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADSY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
OCEAN SIDE OF THE ERN SHORE FOR VERY MARGINAL MINOR FLOODING W/ THE
UPCOMING LATE MORNING TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR DETAILS). THE
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY ABOUT 1 FOOT BUT THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
RATHER HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON CYCLE. FARTHER SOUTH ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING 0.5 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE WATER LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
ABOUT 0.5 FT BELOW THRESHOLDS (WILL MENTION PORTIONS OF HAMPTON
ROADS IN THE HWO FOR NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE RIGHT AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING).
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT MAY BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WINDS GENLY LOOK TO
SLACKEN OFF THOUGH SO AGAIN IT WILL BE VERY MARGINAL SO WILL LET
NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEED FOR THIS LATER TODAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...PATTERN OF A VERY STRONG/1040 MB
SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST
WOULD MAKE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NE (RATHER THAN N)...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE TIDAL FLOODING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER...WEAKER...AND MORE OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE
EVENTUAL COASTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A FLOODING
IMPACT THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS-BASED MDL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING MUCH OF AN ANOMALY ON SUNDAY COULD JUST BE DUE TO THE
GUIDANCE BEING UNDERDONE THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. IN ANY
EVENT...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN/MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ631-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PRETTY QUIET WESTERLY SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WITH MINIMAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS OR RISES NOTED UPSTREAM. STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW IS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS STRONG. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN CENTRAL MANITOBA AND
INTO SINGLE NUMBERS BACK OVR SASKATCHEWAN. BATCH OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MANITOBA...BUT NOT MUCH IS
OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ONLY OTHER SHORTWAVE
RELATIVELY CLOSE BY IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DESPITE DRY
LOW-LEVELS SEEN OVER AREA LAST DAY...THIS WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME LGT SHRA OVER ECNTRL MN WITHIN LAST 2 HOURS. OVER UPR
MICHIGAN IT IS ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A LOT OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.
TEMPS IN MANY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS A TYPICAL
NORMAL HIGH TEMP FOR 15 NOVEMBER AKA THE FIRE ARM RIFLE DEER HUNTING
OPENER FOR MICHIGAN.
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PRESSES EAST TODAY...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND SFC COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON UPR MICHIGAN
LATE TODAY. UNTIL ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER...APPEARS WE COULD HAVE MAKING OF FAIRLY WARM DAY. MID
CLOUDS ALREADY TRYING TO SCT OUT OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CWA THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WI BORDER THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE
OVR MN MAY PUSH CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN
THIS MORNING AND EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES TOWARD KIMT. MIXING TO
925MB SUPPORTS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S BY MID AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SW
WINDS PUSHING READINGS INTO LOWER 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL IF
CLOUDS ARE DELAYED. BY MID AFTN...EXPECT MID CLOUDS /H8-H7 RH/ TO
BUILD BACK OVER CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE BATCH OF CLOUDS JUST
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO CWA FROM ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE AND UVM WITHIN ICE
NUCLEATION ZONE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AFT 21Z. SREF/HIGHER RES
MODELS FROM NCEP AND NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW AGREE PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTS
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE. DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES 1000-H85 LAPSE
RATES OVR MUCH OF EAST HALF AHEAD OF FRONT...SO ALSO ADDED ISOLD
MENTION AS FAR WEST AS MARQUETTE/DELTA COUNTIES. PTYPE ONLY RAIN AS
WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE WELL ABOVE 1KFT AGL. ONLY POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT COUNTY IN
EVENING...BUT MOST OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHOULD DONE BY THIS TIME.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A PORTION OF COLD AIR SEEN UPSTREAM WILL
MAKE RUN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND INTO UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS A SHALLOW
COLDER AIRMASS OVR MANITOBA AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COLDER THAN THOSE AT
850MB. SETUP TONIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN NO DIFFERENT. NORTHWEST WINDS
IN WAKE OF FRONT EVENTUALLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS SFC HIGH
CURRENTLY OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS A RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. NORTH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUB H85 MOISTURE SEEN ON UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS AT YQD /CNTRL MANITOBA/ AND YSM /NORTHWEST TERRITORIES/
ALONG WITH LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION /TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP
AROUND -7C/ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GOING FCST OF FZDZ OR FLURRIES OVR
HIGHLANDS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...PREFER
TO GO COLDER WITH MINS TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW INVERSION/STABLE TEMP
PROFILE. MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WEST/CNTRL WITH NEAR 30
FOR EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WX IS IN STORE THRU THIS WEEKEND AS A ZONAL
FLOW OF RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR DOMINATES.
FRI...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO MOVE FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO TO
AN A LINE FM UPR MI INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT AS H5 RDG BUILDS OVER
THE UPR LKS. PREFER THE CLOUDIER NAM DEPICTION OF EVENTS GIVEN FCST
SHARP INVNR ARND 3K FT ENHANCED BY SHALLOW COLD INFUSION AND
TRAPPING LLVL AIRMASS MOISTENED IN PASSAGE OVER LK SUP. ONCE THE HI
PRES RDG PASSES TO THE E...EXPECT STUBBORN LO CLDS TO BREAK UP AS
THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. BUT OVER THE NCNTRL...THIS WSHFT IS NOT
FCST TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SO SUSPECT THE DAY WL BE MOCLDY
IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME MRNG -FZDZ OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NCENTRAL WHERE LLVL N VEERING E WIND UPSLOPES AND LLVL MSTR REMAINS
TRAPPED BLO SHARP INVRN BTWN H9-925 MAINTAINED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE. EVEN OVER THE W... FCST LIGHT WINDS SUG THE LO CLD
MAY BE QUITE TENACIOUS GIVEN SHARP LO INVRN BASE THAT TRAPS THE LLVL
MSTR. AREAS FM IWD-ONTONAGON- KEWEENAW PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING SOME CLRG WITH A MORE PRONOUCNED DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
DVLPG E FLOW OFF LK MI WL ALSO BRING ABOUT MORE SC OVER THE
SCENTRAL...BUT THERE MAY SOME PARTIAL CLRG OVER THE E WITH
DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO AND LOSS OF LK MOISTENING COMPONENT. WITH
PLENTY OF CLD COVER LINGERING ALL DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV 32 ACRS THE HIER TERRAIN IN THAT AREA.
FRI NGT...AS HI SHIFTS TO THE E...THE LLVL WINDS WL VEER MORE TO THE
S. IN CONCERT WITH INVRN SINKING CLOSER TO THE SFC AS SHOWN BY NAM
FCST SDNGS...THIS FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SKY TO BECOME CLR TO PCLDY.
DESPITE THE CLRG...INCRSG S WINDS WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL AT LEAST OVER THE W. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE AOB 10 KTS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE NGT. WITH PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH...TENDED AOB THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH SOME HI CLDS
MIGHT ARRIVE OVERNGT IN MORE WSW FLOW ALF.
SAT THRU SUN...THE UPR GRT LKS WL BE DOMINATED BY STEADY SW FLOW
BTWN HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES TROF IN THE
PLAINS DOWNWIND OF DEEPENING WRN TROF. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING SSW
LLVL FLOW...MODELS ADVERTISE LTL MOISTENING IN THE LO-MID LVLS. BUT
WSW FLOW ALF WL BRING SCT-BKN HI CLDS. TEMPS WL AVG ABOVE NORMAL
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS FCST FM 1 TO 4C. THE HIEST TEMPS
SHOULD BE OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP ON SUN DESPITE SOME
THICKER HI CLD.
EXTENDED...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW FM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS ON WRN FLANK OF HI PRES OVER THE NE
CONUS MAY TAP MORE MOIST AIRMASS BY MON. AS DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHRTWVS EJECT FM THE WRN TROF EWD TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SCHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MON
THRU WED. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE TROF OUT
W LONGER...SO LATER UPDATES MAY TREND TOWARD DRIER WX. TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL ABV THE SEASONAL NORM WITH PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING UNDER
WSW FLOW ALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS /VFR CONDITIONS/ EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN AT
ALL TAF SITES. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KTS MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTN. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARRIVES MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AT IWD AND CMX THEN BY EVENING AT SAW. MVFR CIGS LIKELY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT SAW...WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LK SUPERIOR COULD SUPPORT IFR CIGS AND
FLURRIES/FZDZ LATE TONIGHT. JUST HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
EXPECT S-SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FNT TO SHIFT TO THE N-NW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES W-E ACROSS THE LAKE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE
NCENTRAL LAKE WITH TERRAIN BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW
ENHANCING EXPECTED WSW WIND. APPROACH OF TRAILING HI PRES WILL THEN
CAUSE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS BY FRI WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI
NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LAKE SUP WILL BE
DOMINATED BY S WINDS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A
LO PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS. THE STRONGEST S WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1258 PM MST THU NOV 15 2012
.UPDATE...STRATUS DECK GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. CLOUDS WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS FROM BOULDER TO FORT COLLINS BUT
EVEN THERE SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAD DEVELOPED WHERE CEILINGS HAD
BROKEN UP AT KDEN...ENOUGH FOR TEMPO BROKEN NEAR 4000 FT AGL TIL
21Z-22Z. MEANWHILE...KAPA SHOULD ONLY SEE SCT CLOUDS...WHILE KBJC
SHOULD FINALLY SEE ORIGINAL STRATUS DECK BREAK UP AROUND 22Z.
OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CLOUD DECK HAS BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY BAND HAS SAGGED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO BOULDER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. DON`T
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION THOUGH EXCEPT SOME DUSTING OVER NORTHERN
WELD COUNTY. CHANGES TO FORECAST INCLUDE MORE CLOUDS AND GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED LIGHT SNOW A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENT FORECAT.
AVIATION...SOLID STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER LOCAL TERMINALS AND
MAY EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT BJC AND DEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LATER CLEARING AND MAY SEE ILS CONDITIONS AT DEN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...STRATUS DECK HAS BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND IS NOW
COVERING ALL THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 FEET AGL. WILL DELAY CLEARING INTO THE 17Z-19Z TIME FRAME
GIVEN LATEST SOUNDINGS AND PER RUC FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS FORMED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHOWER
BAND...PROBABLY DUE TO COOLING FROM THE SHOWER OUTFLOW. CEILINGS
BETWEEN 025 AND 040 LIKELY AT KDEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...IT MAY GET INTO KBJC BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO NOT MAKE
IT TO KAPA. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO BREAK UP IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME AS THE SHOWERS FADE AND THE SURFACE WARMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...LITTLE SNOW BAND IN A WEAK FRONTOLYSIS ZONE THAT
WAS PARKED OVER THE LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT
HAS STARTED TO SAG SOUTH A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS GETS EAST OF
US...BUT IS ALSO STARTING TO FALL APART AND SHRINK AT BOTH THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
QG LIFT GOES AWAY AND DRIER AIR UNDERCUTS THE MID LEVEL LIFT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SHOWERS ENDING BY 15Z WHICH IS PROBABLY
ALRIGHT...I DID KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS ON THE TAIL END OF THE BAND WILL LIKELY
STILL BE OUT THERE. I ALSO SLOWED THE CLEARING ON THE PLAINS JUST
A LITTLE...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO BE GONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SURGE AND COOLER HIGHS TODAY APPEAR WELL HANDLED.
LONG TERM...NOT MUCH TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SLIPPING ACROSS COLORADO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP
THE LOWER ELEVATION MILD AND DRY. OVERALL...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE DENVER AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING REMAINING NORTH OF
DENVER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT
THE CURRENT WIND PATTERN TO BREAK DOWN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE DENVER AREA BY SUNRISE. WINDS MAY STILL BE
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT BY MIDDAY EXPECT
STEADIER NE-E WINDS THAT WILL ROTATE TO SLY DRAINAGE WINDS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WIND DIRECTION AT KDEN/KAPA FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT FOG THREAT APPEARS LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
140 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PASSED
TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING AND IS NOW TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
THE FEATURE PIVOTS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWED
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVELS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS SUBSIDENCE OVER-TOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
PROVIDED A GOOD SETUP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS/FOG SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE WEAKER
MID-NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE SLOWED ANY RAPID DISSIPATION OF THIS LAYER.
IT IS ONLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THAT ANY VISIBLE THINNING OF THE
STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEING THE GENERAL RULE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BOUNDARY
AND 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST IS FORCING A STEADY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERED PROJECTED
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STUBBORN CLOUDS HAVE LESSENED THE OVERALL
INSOLATION THESE AREAS WILL SEE FOR THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DIGS
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANY SYNOPTIC
LIFT/SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT ARRIVE FOR OUR
AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN BE WEAK.
THEREFORE STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE/EXTENT SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES
WHICH SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FROM THE PUNTA GORDA AREA
NORTHWARD. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. IF STRATUS DEVELOPS EARLY/THICK ENOUGH...THEN LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING MIGRATES
EASTWARD AND ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF OVER AL/GA. DESPITE SOME WEAK
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING HEIGHT
FALLS...OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE.
FORECAST WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY DURING THE DAY...AND THEN EXPANDING OVER THE REST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT IN TERMS OF DURATION OR AMOUNT FOR ANY
PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...AREAS OF LOWER
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER STUBBORN TO BURN OFF AND WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 UP NEAR CHIEFLAND...TO
AROUND 80 DOWN TOWARD FT. MYERS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SOME INDICATION THAT THIS ENERGY MAY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA/NE FL COAST. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN
AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF I-4 ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE FOCUS
ORIGINATING ALONG THE NE FL COAST. ELSEWHERE...THE OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS. ONCE AGAIN THE IMPACTS OF ANY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
BEING RAIN-FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL EXTEND
TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT KTPA...KPIE...KSRQ...AND KLAL WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR AFTER 15/20Z AS THE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK ERODES.
ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 16/06Z
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16/08 16/12Z. VFR
SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 16/16Z ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS IN THE 6 TO 8 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST IN THE 4 TO 6 KNOT RANGE AFTER 16/02Z TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 16/15Z ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT
TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING AND THIS LAYER WILL KEEP DISPERSION INDICES VERY LOW UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BURN OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 75 58 76 / 10 10 20 20
FMY 61 80 61 79 / 10 20 30 20
GIF 57 77 57 78 / 10 10 20 20
SRQ 59 77 60 77 / 10 10 20 20
BKV 50 74 52 74 / 10 10 20 20
SPG 62 74 61 75 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1258 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WDSPRD CLDNS OVR THE RGN RIGHT NOW...AND LIKELY TO CONT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. WK/DE-AMPLIFYING S/W TRACKING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS W/ WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHR CONTG TO SPREAD MSTR NWD INTO
THE RGN. LGT RA HAVING DIFFICULTY SPREADING N THROUGH CNTRL/ERN
NC. LATEST RUC FOLLOWS CURRENT FCST IN KEEPING RA MNLY S OF THE
VA/NC BRDR LATER TDA INTO TNGT AS SYS EXITS OFF THE CST. MINOR
ADJSTMNTS MADE TO TEMPS...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U40S-ARND 50F W OF
I95...TO RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO THE E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEST LO LVL MOISTURE/LIFT FCST RMN INVOF SE VA AND NE NC WHERE
CURRENT POPS OF 30-40% STILL LUK GOOD FOR TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SLGT CHC POPS OF 20% WILL COME INTO A LINE EXTENDING FM
AVC-JGG-OXB. LOWS TNGT RANGING FM THE LWR 30S TO THE LWR 40S.
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS THE GRT LKS AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRI AFTN THRU SAT. WHILE MOISTURE RIBBON WILL LINGER
INVOF THE CSTL CAROLINAS FM FRI AFTN THRU SAT...THE HI PRES SHOULD
KEEP OUR WX DRY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MORE CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE
OVER NE NC. OTHRWISE...EXPECT A PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY SKY ACRS MUCH
OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.
LOWS FRI NGT RANGING THRU THE 30S TO ARND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING PROGRESS OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES INITIALLY AS MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING, WITH A PIECE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM NORTHERN STREAM AND DROPPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US SAT-SUN, EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A
AMPLIFYING/DIGGING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES SPRING FROM THERE, WITH BULK OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS FORECAST PERTAINING TO EXTENT OF DIGGING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SFC CYCLOGENESIS (DEVELOPING SFC LOW) ALONG THE SE COAST BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF (12Z) REMAINS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WOULD SERVE TO BRING POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST THAN THE
FARTHER OFFSHORE GFS SOLUTION. STILL, APPEARS AS IF MODELS DO AGREE
THAT BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL REMAIN CONFINED OFFSHORE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO CONTINUE RAMPING RAIN CHCS SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHEST (~50%) POP ACROSS COASTAL ZONES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWER (SLIGHT TO LOW CHC AT BEST) RAIN CHCS SUN/SUN
NIGHT WEST OF I-95.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, ECMWF ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A RATHER
SHARP REX BLOCKING TYPE SIGNATURE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WOULD SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST
MON-TUE, SLIDING BEST RAIN CHCS OFFSHORE WITH IT, THE PROGRESS OF
NEXT MID-UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE MIDWEST WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL NE FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, WENT WITH MOSTLY
CLDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK IN DIGITAL
DB, WITH LOW RAIN CHCS ACROSS COASTAL ZONES (DRY INLAND). CLOUDS
WOULD KEEP TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOWS IN THE 30S INLAND TO L40S AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN/OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
N/NE AVERAGING 10-15 KT AT KORF/KECG AND 10 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT -RA AT KECG AROUND 23 Z BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
VSBYS. WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING
FRI MORNING.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE
SAT-SUN. N/NE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGHOUT...AND WILL TEND TO INCREASE
AGAIN SUN/MON CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N/NE FLOW 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN THE UPPER BAY AND RIVERS
OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER JAMES. SEAS OVER ATLANTIC COAST ZONES STILL AVG
5-7 FT...WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAY 3-4 FT. LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ALL GENLY AGREE THAT THE SURGE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS OFF A LITTLE MORE SO SCA`S OVER BAY/SND SLATED TO
COME DOWN THIS EVENING...WHILE SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 FT OR HIGHER. A BIT OF A LULL IN
THE GRADIENT FRI-SAT...BUT STILL WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE AT LEAST
CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND SO IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL BOATING THROUGHOUT THE REGION (SCA`S WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR 4-5 FT SEAS).
LATER SAT INTO SUN SUN/MON...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...AS ANOTHER AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. RE-TIGHTENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS (POSSIBLY RAMPING UP TO LOW
END GALES BY LATE SUNDAY ON THE COAST). WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS AVG 6-9 FT ON THE COAST...WITH WAVES IN THE BAY 3-5 FT SUN-MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONTINUED N/NE WINDS 15-20 KT TODAY ACRS MUCH OF THE MARINE
AREA...AND HAVE HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADSY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
OCEAN SIDE OF THE ERN SHORE FOR VERY MARGINAL MINOR FLOODING W/ THE
UPCOMING LATE MORNING TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR DETAILS). THE
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY ABOUT 1 FOOT BUT THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
RATHER HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON CYCLE. FARTHER SOUTH ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING 0.5 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE WATER LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
ABOUT 0.5 FT BELOW THRESHOLDS (WILL MENTION PORTIONS OF HAMPTON
ROADS IN THE HWO FOR NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE RIGHT AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING).
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT MAY BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WINDS GENLY LOOK TO
SLACKEN OFF THOUGH SO AGAIN IT WILL BE VERY MARGINAL SO WILL LET
NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEED FOR THIS LATER TODAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...PATTERN OF A VERY STRONG/1040 MB
SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST
WOULD MAKE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NE (RATHER THAN N)...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE TIDAL FLOODING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER...WEAKER...AND MORE OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE
EVENTUAL COASTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A FLOODING
IMPACT THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS-BASED MDL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING MUCH OF AN ANOMALY ON SUNDAY COULD JUST BE DUE TO THE
GUIDANCE BEING UNDERDONE THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. IN ANY
EVENT...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN/MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1238 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PRETTY QUIET WESTERLY SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WITH MINIMAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS OR RISES NOTED UPSTREAM. STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW IS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS STRONG. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN CENTRAL MANITOBA AND
INTO SINGLE NUMBERS BACK OVR SASKATCHEWAN. BATCH OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MANITOBA...BUT NOT MUCH IS
OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ONLY OTHER SHORTWAVE
RELATIVELY CLOSE BY IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DESPITE DRY
LOW-LEVELS SEEN OVER AREA LAST DAY...THIS WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME LGT SHRA OVER ECNTRL MN WITHIN LAST 2 HOURS. OVER UPR
MICHIGAN IT IS ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A LOT OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.
TEMPS IN MANY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS A TYPICAL
NORMAL HIGH TEMP FOR 15 NOVEMBER AKA THE FIRE ARM RIFLE DEER HUNTING
OPENER FOR MICHIGAN.
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PRESSES EAST TODAY...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND SFC COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON UPR MICHIGAN
LATE TODAY. UNTIL ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER...APPEARS WE COULD HAVE MAKING OF FAIRLY WARM DAY. MID
CLOUDS ALREADY TRYING TO SCT OUT OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CWA THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WI BORDER THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE
OVR MN MAY PUSH CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN
THIS MORNING AND EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES TOWARD KIMT. MIXING TO
925MB SUPPORTS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S BY MID AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SW
WINDS PUSHING READINGS INTO LOWER 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL IF
CLOUDS ARE DELAYED. BY MID AFTN...EXPECT MID CLOUDS /H8-H7 RH/ TO
BUILD BACK OVER CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE BATCH OF CLOUDS JUST
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO CWA FROM ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE AND UVM WITHIN ICE
NUCLEATION ZONE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AFT 21Z. SREF/HIGHER RES
MODELS FROM NCEP AND NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW AGREE PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTS
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE. DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES 1000-H85 LAPSE
RATES OVR MUCH OF EAST HALF AHEAD OF FRONT...SO ALSO ADDED ISOLD
MENTION AS FAR WEST AS MARQUETTE/DELTA COUNTIES. PTYPE ONLY RAIN AS
WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE WELL ABOVE 1KFT AGL. ONLY POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT COUNTY IN
EVENING...BUT MOST OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHOULD DONE BY THIS TIME.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A PORTION OF COLD AIR SEEN UPSTREAM WILL
MAKE RUN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND INTO UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS A SHALLOW
COLDER AIRMASS OVR MANITOBA AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COLDER THAN THOSE AT
850MB. SETUP TONIGHT OVER UPR MICHIGAN NO DIFFERENT. NORTHWEST WINDS
IN WAKE OF FRONT EVENTUALLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS SFC HIGH
CURRENTLY OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS A RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. NORTH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUB H85 MOISTURE SEEN ON UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS AT YQD /CNTRL MANITOBA/ AND YSM /NORTHWEST TERRITORIES/
ALONG WITH LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION /TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP
AROUND -7C/ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GOING FCST OF FZDZ OR FLURRIES OVR
HIGHLANDS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...PREFER
TO GO COLDER WITH MINS TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW INVERSION/STABLE TEMP
PROFILE. MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WEST/CNTRL WITH NEAR 30
FOR EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WX IS IN STORE THRU THIS WEEKEND AS A ZONAL
FLOW OF RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR DOMINATES.
FRI...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO MOVE FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO TO
AN A LINE FM UPR MI INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT AS H5 RDG BUILDS OVER
THE UPR LKS. PREFER THE CLOUDIER NAM DEPICTION OF EVENTS GIVEN FCST
SHARP INVNR ARND 3K FT ENHANCED BY SHALLOW COLD INFUSION AND
TRAPPING LLVL AIRMASS MOISTENED IN PASSAGE OVER LK SUP. ONCE THE HI
PRES RDG PASSES TO THE E...EXPECT STUBBORN LO CLDS TO BREAK UP AS
THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. BUT OVER THE NCNTRL...THIS WSHFT IS NOT
FCST TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SO SUSPECT THE DAY WL BE MOCLDY
IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME MRNG -FZDZ OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NCENTRAL WHERE LLVL N VEERING E WIND UPSLOPES AND LLVL MSTR REMAINS
TRAPPED BLO SHARP INVRN BTWN H9-925 MAINTAINED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE. EVEN OVER THE W... FCST LIGHT WINDS SUG THE LO CLD
MAY BE QUITE TENACIOUS GIVEN SHARP LO INVRN BASE THAT TRAPS THE LLVL
MSTR. AREAS FM IWD-ONTONAGON- KEWEENAW PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING SOME CLRG WITH A MORE PRONOUCNED DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
DVLPG E FLOW OFF LK MI WL ALSO BRING ABOUT MORE SC OVER THE
SCENTRAL...BUT THERE MAY SOME PARTIAL CLRG OVER THE E WITH
DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO AND LOSS OF LK MOISTENING COMPONENT. WITH
PLENTY OF CLD COVER LINGERING ALL DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV 32 ACRS THE HIER TERRAIN IN THAT AREA.
FRI NGT...AS HI SHIFTS TO THE E...THE LLVL WINDS WL VEER MORE TO THE
S. IN CONCERT WITH INVRN SINKING CLOSER TO THE SFC AS SHOWN BY NAM
FCST SDNGS...THIS FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SKY TO BECOME CLR TO PCLDY.
DESPITE THE CLRG...INCRSG S WINDS WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL AT LEAST OVER THE W. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E WHERE THE H925 WINDS WL BE AOB 10 KTS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE NGT. WITH PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH...TENDED AOB THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH SOME HI CLDS
MIGHT ARRIVE OVERNGT IN MORE WSW FLOW ALF.
SAT THRU SUN...THE UPR GRT LKS WL BE DOMINATED BY STEADY SW FLOW
BTWN HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES TROF IN THE
PLAINS DOWNWIND OF DEEPENING WRN TROF. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING SSW
LLVL FLOW...MODELS ADVERTISE LTL MOISTENING IN THE LO-MID LVLS. BUT
WSW FLOW ALF WL BRING SCT-BKN HI CLDS. TEMPS WL AVG ABOVE NORMAL
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS FCST FM 1 TO 4C. THE HIEST TEMPS
SHOULD BE OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP ON SUN DESPITE SOME
THICKER HI CLD.
EXTENDED...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW FM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS ON WRN FLANK OF HI PRES OVER THE NE
CONUS MAY TAP MORE MOIST AIRMASS BY MON. AS DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHRTWVS EJECT FM THE WRN TROF EWD TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SCHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MON
THRU WED. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE TROF OUT
W LONGER...SO LATER UPDATES MAY TREND TOWARD DRIER WX. TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL ABV THE SEASONAL NORM WITH PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING UNDER
WSW FLOW ALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE AT IWD AND CMX...AND LATER IN THE DAY AT SAW. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING LOWER LAKE EFFECT CIGS AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO LIMITED FOR ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...SAW WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
THERE...BUT VIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP ALL THAT MUCH IN ANY LIGHT
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012
EXPECT S-SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FNT TO SHIFT TO THE N-NW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES W-E ACROSS THE LAKE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE
NCENTRAL LAKE WITH TERRAIN BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW
ENHANCING EXPECTED WSW WIND. APPROACH OF TRAILING HI PRES WILL THEN
CAUSE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS BY FRI WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI
NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LAKE SUP WILL BE
DOMINATED BY S WINDS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A
LO PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS. THE STRONGEST S WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC