Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/12/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

632 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

RADAR LOOP STILL SUGGEST A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
STILL PERSIST AFTER SUNSET...BUT OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS DO NOT
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ROUTT COUNTY WHERE
SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING. THIS DOES
NTO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF ANY WARNING OR ADVISORY. ALLOWED
THESE TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW
COVER...WILL CHECK WHETHER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...INSTABILITY...AND CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
WIDESPREAD SNOWSHOWERS ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN SITES ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THOSE AREAS. . AFTER SUNSET...STABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND SNOW OUTPUT WILL GRADUALLY END. HGT RISES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE PREVIOUS DAYS SNOWFALL AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEPT DAYTIME HIGHS FAIRLY LOW. THIS
COMBINATION MAY PRODUCE SOME RECORD LOWS ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND
WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN OUR RIDGE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN...IT WILL STILL FORCE
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE TO OUR NORTH. THUS...ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO STAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DUE TO THE WEAKENING
RIDGING AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AS FAR AS OUR WEATHER
IS CONCERNED THEN...SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST
AREA WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

A STRONG POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL
CREATE AN EFFECTIVE BLOCK OF HIGH LATITUDE ENERGY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE PACIFIC ENERGY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE A
GENERAL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OFF THE WEST COAST. AS ENERGY
DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE TROF...ENERGY WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THESE WAVES WILL BE
SENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROF DEEPENS BY LATE WEEK. THE IMPACT TO OUR CWA WILL BE
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AS LIFT FROM THE WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED TO
OUR NORTH...AND JUST EXPECT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE STREAMING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER IN THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE REMAINING JUST
ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL NEAR 600MB. THIS IS NEAR THE DENDRITIC
LAYER SO A FEW PASSING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ATOP THE DIVIDE BUT
WITH MINIMAL LIFT INDICATED THROUGH THIS LAYER EVEN THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY ATTM. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO POP UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY THOUGH CONTINUED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE THIS DAY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS MIXING
INCREASES AND SNOW COVER AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DECREASES.

AS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THE EURO/GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN PUSHING THIS BACK TO THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 300-310K RANGE
SHOW THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PICKING UP SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND BRINGING IT TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY. MIXING RATIO/S REACH 3 TO 4 G/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON DURING
WHICH TIME THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES OVERHEAD. BOTH MODELS
HOWEVER INDICATE THIS ASCENT WEAKENING AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN...SO QPF OUTPUT CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. H7
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SNOW LEVEL AGAIN QUITE HIGH ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM AND
INSTABILITY MOVES OVERHEAD BY THE EVENING. A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
MAY DO BETTER AS FAR AS SNOWFALL. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM NOT NEARLY AS
COLD...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

OFF AND ON SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR KASE KEGE KSBS
AND KTEX WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH ROUGHLY 04Z. AFTER
THAT...A RETURN TO VFR AND CLEARING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.

SOME MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH VIS DROPPING TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 0900 AND 1000.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

813 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE DENVER AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S BEHIND IT. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS MAY NOT
SURVIVE AS THEY DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS...WILL LIKELY SPEED UP THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN WHICH WOULD COINCIDE BETTER WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY AS WELL.

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING THROUGH KDEN WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. IT APPEARS THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
IS HAPPENING SOONER VS LATER. ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS
INITIALLY MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO KDEN
...OVERALL I EXPECT THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE
MOVED UP...ESPECIALLY IF WE MAINTAIN NNELY WINDS SFC WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012/

SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY THING I AM CONFIDENT ABOUT
WITH THE ENTIRE FCST. FOR THE MTNS DECENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SOME QG ASCENT WILL LEAD TO SNOW THRU THE AFTN HOURS. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR WITH SW FACING ASPECTS DUE TO SWLY WINDS
AT 700 MB. BY TONIGHT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY BY
EVENING AND THEN NWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS SHOULD SEE MORE SNOW
ACROSS THE MTNS AS OROGRAPHICS AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE.

EAST OF THE MTNS THE FORECAST IS FAR MORE COMPLICATED AS THERE ARE
HUGHE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO PCPN CHANCES FM THE FOOTHILLS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE NAM SHOWS NWLY LOW LVL WINDS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS WITH A BORA TYPE FNT WHICH KEEPS BEST CHC OF PCPN OVER
THE FAR NERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MEANWHILE THE
GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SHOW A DECENT BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN ALONG THE FNT RANGE WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS A CDFNT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND ENHANCES LOW LVL CONVERGE. THUS THIS COULD END BEING
ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE THE FOOTHILLS AND WRN SUBURBS GET
VERY LITTLE SNOW WHILE EASTERN AREAS GET A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AS FAR AS HIGHS
TODAY READINGS WILL VARY FM THE 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF FNT WHILE
TO THE SOUTH OF IT GUSTY SWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
RISE INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NAM BASCIALLY HAS NO PCPN ACROSS NERN CO WHILE
THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
DUE TO WK UPSLOPE FLOW AND DECENT LAPSE RATES. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE IN CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FM PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED. LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY
PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN FAIRLY STRONG
DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN.
SAME FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE NORMAL PATTERNS MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGHING EAT OF THE MOUNTAINS BRINGS
DOWNSLOPING BACK. FOR MOISTURE...MODELS KEEP SOME OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THINGS DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY OVER ALL AREAS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A
TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A TAD OVER THE FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CWA SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH A "CHANCE" IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THERE IS MOISTURE AND SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. WILL GO WITH "CHANCE" OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. NO POPS FOR MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
SUNDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE 3-5 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S WARM UP
4-7 C FROM SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WILL LET THE MOUNTAIN POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

AVIATION...ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10 FCST CONFIDENCE IS A 1 FOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. I WILL NOT REPEAT WHAT IT TALKED ABOUT ABV
BUT IF A BAND OF DECENT PCPN DOES DVLP LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS (23Z-04Z) COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT
DIA WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IF GFS AND ECMWF END UP BEING
RIGHT. AFTER 04Z THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. WINDS THIS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ARE GONG TO BE A
NIGHTMARE. LATEST DATA SUGGEST GUSTY SSW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST LATE MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO MORE NWLY BY 18Z. HOWEVER THE RAP IS ON ITS OWN AND
NEVER SHOWS A FNTL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z AS WINDS STAY SWLY
THRU MID AFTN. FOR NOW WILL SHOW A NWLY WIND BY 18Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NLY BY 23Z. AFTER 02Z LOOKS LIKE A SECOND FNT MAY
COME IN WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. OVER SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTN WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR/IFR AFTER 23Z IF PCPN DOES DVLP. AS
SECONDARY FNT COMES IN AFTER 02Z CEILINGS SHOULD TRENS TOWARDS IFR
EVEN IF PCPN DOES NOT OCUR.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ048-050-
051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ031.

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...COOPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

326 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY THING I AM CONFIDENT ABOUT
WITH THE ENTIRE FCST. FOR THE MTNS DECENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SOME QG ASCENT WILL LEAD TO SNOW THRU THE AFTN HOURS. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR WITH SW FACING ASPECTS DUE TO SWLY WINDS
AT 700 MB. BY TONIGHT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY BY
EVENING AND THEN NWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS SHOULD SEE MORE SNOW
ACROSS THE MTNS AS OROGRAPHICS AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED. LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY
PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN FAIRLY STRONG
DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN.
SAME FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE NORMAL PATTERNS MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGHING EAT OF THE MOUNTAINS BRINGS
DOWNSLOPING BACK. FOR MOISTURE...MODELS KEEP SOME OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THINGS DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY OVER ALL AREAS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A
TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A TAD OVER THE FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CWA SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH A "CHANCE" IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THERE IS MOISTURE AND SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. WILL GO WITH "CHANCE" OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. NO POPS FOR MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
SUNDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE 3-5 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S WARM UP
4-7 C FROM SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WILL LET THE MOUNTAIN POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

.AVIATION...ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10 FCST CONFIDENCE IS A 1 FOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. I WILL NOT REPEAT WHAT IT TALKED ABOUT ABV
BUT IF A BAND OF DECENT PCPN DOES DVLP LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS (23Z-04Z) COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT
DIA WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IF GFS AND ECMWF END UP BEING
RIGHT. AFTER 04Z THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. WINDS THIS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ARE GONG TO BE A
NIGHTMARE. LATEST DATA SUGGEST GUSTY SSW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST LATE MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO MORE NWLY BY 18Z. HOWEVER THE RAP IS ON ITS OWN AND
NEVER SHOWS A FNTL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z AS WINDS STAY SWLY
THRU MID AFTN. FOR NOW WILL SHOW A NWLY WIND BY 18Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NLY BY 23Z. AFTER 02Z LOOKS LIKE A SECOND FNT MAY
COME IN WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. OVER SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTN WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR/IFR AFTER 23Z IF PCPN DOES DVLP. AS
SECONDARY FNT COMES IN AFTER 02Z CEILINGS SHOULD TRENS TOWARDS IFR
EVEN IF PCPN DOES NOT OCUR.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ031.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ050-
051.

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

328 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...H100-H70 HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN RANGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR
CENTRAL FL. FRI EVNG RAOBS SHOW THE RIDGE MAINTAINING A VERY
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
HAS DECREASED TO 15-20C. DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW HAS PUSHED PWAT VALUES
BACK ABV 0.7" AT KMFL...READINGS STILL HOLDING BTWN 0.3"-0.4" AT
KJAX/KTBW SITES...RESPECTIVELY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TIGHT H100-H85 RH GRADIENT THAT WAS
OVER THE SE FL COAST EARLY FRI MORNING NOW LIES IMMEDIATELY SE OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OCNL BKN DECKS OF MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE
S OF THE CAPE INDICATIVE OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THE RH GRADIENT
SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE NW TO ALLOW SFC DEWPOINT READINGS TO
RECOVER TO THE U40S/L50S OVER THE INTERIOR...L/M50S ALONG THE COAST.

AFT A COOL START...THE DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE M70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY HOLD IN THE L70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST N OF THE CAPE DUE TO THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE E/NE IN THE PREDAWN HRS AS THE
RIDGE CENTER MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SFC/LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO KEEP MIN TEMPS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE L/M60S...M/U50S OVER THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN AN
UPTICK IN EASTERLY FLOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAYTIME. NOT RULING OUT A STRAY COASTAL SHOWER BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP BELOW ANY MENTIONABLE VALUES. SKIES AVERAGING
PARTLY CLOUDY BUT SOME PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST FROM MARINE LAYER STRATOCU PUSHING
ONSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS DUE TO AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 80/LOWER 80S INLAND BUT ONSHORE BREEZES MODERATING
MAXES TO MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR 60/LOWER
60S WELL INLAND AND MID/UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

MON-FRI...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE AS MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH IT WILL BE
LACKING. HAVE REDUCED POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ON TUES. TEMPS
QUICKLY MODERATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS
IT BUILDS TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. PERSISTENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
EXPECTED. HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE VALUES MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED FINE TUNING AS SITUATION COMES BETTER
INTO FOCUS. DAYTIME HIGHS MON/TUE REACHING LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 COAST JUST A TOUCH LOWER MID TO LATE WEEK...ESP
NEAR THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY IN THE 60S BUT A FEW
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

.AVIATION...THRU 11/12Z...VFR ALL SITES...S OF KTIX-KISM CIGS BTWN
FL040-060.

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU
EARLY SUN MORNING. THE N/NE FETCH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM S FL TO THE NC OUTER BANKS AND WILL MAINTAIN A 3-4FT
SWELL OVER THE LCL ATLC. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE ENE BY
DAYBREAK SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ALLOWS THE LCL PGRAD TO TIGHTEN. SEAS 3-5FT THRU
MIDDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 4-6FT THRU MIDNIGHT...DOMINANT
PDS 10-12SECS TODAY...DECREASING TO 9-11SEC TONIGHT.

SUN-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAINING GENERALLY POOR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRESHENING EASTERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RUNNING
AROUND HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. A BRIEF DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS MON INTO
TUE AS HIGH WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE...SEA
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND LONG NELY FETCH
WILL ALLOW SWELLS TO BUILD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY-TONIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BLANKETING
THE ERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE
H90-H80 LYR. THIS WILL CAPPING MIXING HEIGHTS BTWN 4000-4500FT. FLOW
THRU THE MIXING LYR HAS VEERED TO THE N/NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST.

AFTN RH READINGS MAY DIP BLO 35PCT FOR AN HR OR TWO N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...BUT LONG DURATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST ERC VALUES
REMAIN LARGELY IN THE M/U20S...WELL BLO THE THRESHOLD OF 35 TO
REQUIRE SPECIAL PRODUCTS. WITH SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME E/NE TODAY...OVERALL FIRE WX DANGER WILL BE LARGELY MUTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 61 78 64 / 0 0 10 0
MCO 76 59 81 62 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 74 65 79 67 / 0 0 10 0
VRB 76 65 79 68 / 0 0 10 0
LEE 76 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 76 59 81 62 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 77 59 81 62 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 75 65 78 68 / 0 0 10 0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....GLITTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

917 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 917 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

HAVE ADJUSTED ZONES TO REFLECT PHASE CHANGE ON EDGE OF PRECIP AREA
AND TO SPEED UP CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A BROAD FRONTAL
ZONE. WIND SHIFT NOW APPROACHING THE INDIANA BORDER...WHILE THE
COLD AIR LINGERS JUST PAST THE ILLINOIS RIVER. AS THE COLD AIR
FUNNELS INTO THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SOME PHASE CHANGE TO
SNOW AND SLEET IS OCCURRING. ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY LIMITED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASS WITH MELTING OCCURRING QUICKLY AFTER
THE PRECIP DIMINISHES.

CLEARING AREA NOW APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SHOULD PUSH
EAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY GIVEN THE STRONG DVA EVIDENT IN 18Z GFS.

BARKER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 550 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

RAIN AND LOWER CIGS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT CMI WILL
FALL TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR AS CIGS FALL TO BELOW 1KFT FOR THE
NIGHT. CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING. PCPN SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE PCPN IS
ENDING...TEMPS WILL FALL QUITE A BIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF SNOW. DO NOT SEE A
LOT OF SNOW IN OBSERVATIONS BACK WEST SO WILL JUST KEEP -RA
PREDOMINATE WITH TEMPO -SN AT ALL SITES...FOR ABOUT 4HRS AS PCPN
IS ENDING. ONCE PCPN ENDS WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MID
CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES. THEN MODELS ARE BRINGING IN
SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...AFFECTING PIA AND BMI ONLY. WINDS WILL BE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LESS WINDY. THESE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

AUTEN
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

VIGOROUS SYSTEM APPROACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A FEW GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH HAVE
BEEN REPORTED AS WELL. COLD FRONT IS ALREADY MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CROSSING THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AT THE MOMENT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND
WIND...PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF TONIGHT/S
FROPA. OTHERWISE...RATHER BENIGN...ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

12Z MODELS SHOW SPREAD IN THE MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS TONIGHT
INVOF FROPA...AND AGAIN WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...AGREEMENT IS GOOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...PLAN TO USE ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS AND EXTRAPOLATION
RATHER THAN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION. FURTHER OUT...AN ENSEMBLE
BLEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION UNTIL THE
SPREAD DIMINISHES A BIT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
MORE QUICKLY THAN MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATED AND SEE NO REASON
WHY THIS WILL NOT CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. WILL BE CANCELING THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM AS WINDS HAVE BEEN AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH FROPA. THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE/JET. WHILE IT STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME IT
IS COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST NAM
AND RAP HOLD ONTO DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
WOULD POSE A GREATER SNOW RISK. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS CONTINUE
TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS EXPECTATION THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE TRENDS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY MONDAY AND A CHILLY AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. THIS
SURFACE HIGH...ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS...AND MOSTLY NEUTRAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART...THE
MODELS SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ZONAL/NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS SUPPORT A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE COOL.
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH OF A MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY OF THESE DISCRETE WAVES TO WARRANT CARRYING POPS AT ANY POINT
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

BAK

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

550 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

BAK
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 550 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

831 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS FOR INCREASING CLOUDS NORTHWEST WITH
PATCHY STRATUS FOLLOWED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
IOWA BY MORNING. TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WILL PUT LEADING EDGE NEAR
KEST 04 TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND NEAR KMCW AND KALO BY 09-12Z. CLOUDS
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS KDSM DURING THE MORNING
HOURS PRIOR TO SYSTEM PULLING EAST BY MIDDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK APPROPRIATE FROM EARLIER AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. STATE FORECAST AND ZONES ALREADY SENT. /REV

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
EXTRAPOLATION AND RAP FORCING SUGGEST PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END IN
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SO NOTHING BEYOND LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW FAR SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. HAVE HAD NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING BEYOND
TOKEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AS OF YET HOWEVER. CERTAINLY NO
ACCUMULATIONS.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING LEADING TO MIN TEMP CONCERNS.
ALTHOUGH MOS SHOWS LOWS IN THE MID TEENS AND LOWER 20S...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT NW WINDS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE BLENDED MOS AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH /...
FEW CONCERNS WITH EXTENDED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUSH NE. BEHIND LOW...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY
ZONAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS COLD CANADIAN AIR REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT...WITH LITTLE WARMING FOR MONDAY. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY WITH WRAP AROUND OF LOW
CROSSING INTO MN. HAVE DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WILL BE WAA INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH 850 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. A WEAK WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING. WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IMPACT WITH LACK
OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...AND WILL SEE A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN REMAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN PLAINS FOR END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SLOW THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THEM CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SW FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MODELS DO NOT HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK OR
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW HOWEVER...SO THIS COULD CONTINUE TO CHANCE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS LOW PUSHES EAST.

.AVIATION...12/00Z
SYSTEM QUICKLY PULLING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
SETTLING INTO THE REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT FIRST SHOT
WILL BRING SKC INITIALLY THEN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRATUS MOVING ACROSS
ABOUT NORTH HALF OF FORECAST SITES WITH BKN-OVC035-040 ARRIVING
09-13Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY AFT 15Z MON WITH MIXING INCREASING THROUGH
21Z WHEN GUSTS WILL BE ABOVE 25KTS MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT REGION NEAR 00Z WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AFT 23Z UNDER 12KTS. HIGH BUILDING INTO REGION AFT
00Z...WILL BE FOCUS OF NEXT PACKAGE. /REV

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

515 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE 12/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
EXTRAPOLATION AND RAP FORCING SUGGEST PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END IN
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SO NOTHING BEYOND LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW FAR SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. HAVE HAD NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING BEYOND
TOKEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AS OF YET HOWEVER. CERTAINLY NO
ACCUMULATIONS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

500 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE 11/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ALL ELEMENTS ARE CONCERNS THIS EVENING WITH TREMENDOUS CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER. PARENT LONG WAVE TROUGH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS STILL WEST
OF ROCKIES BUT LEAD CO AND NE SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS NE INTO SIOUXLAND AREA AT 20Z. NO
ISALLOBARIC MAX OR PUSH EVIDENT AS OF YET SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MOVEMENT FOR AWHILE. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS STILL HAS A WAYS TO GO
BEFORE BECOMING SURFACE BASED WITH 20Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING
ONLY 100 J/KG MLCAPES AND CINH ONLY DOWN TO 50 J/KG IN SMALL AREA
ACROSS KS/NE BORDER. LATEST RAP AND NAM SUGGEST ONLY A SMALL WINDOW
FOR THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE CONVECTION UPSTREAM THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...AND WHAT THERE IS FADES INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER
EAST SO DO NOT REALLY FEEL TORNADOES OR SURFACE BASED STORMS A
THREAT.

HOWEVER LATEST NAM/HRRR AND WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST SIMILAR
PROGRESSIONS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING THAT IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NE/SD SNOW. THIS MOVES
INTO WRN FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z AND THEN ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS ACTUALLY DEPICT FORCING MAX 06-12Z SO PRECIP
MAY ACTUALLY EXPAND EARLY SUN MORNING. WIND WOULD SEEM TO BE OUR
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH STORM MOTION SW-NE 50-60KTS...BUT WITH
WANING INSTABILITY AND SOUNDINGS MOISTENING DO NOT THINK THIS IS A
BIG THREAT OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH SHARP
GRADIENT ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL SHARPLY WITH
FRONT NW...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH FAR SERN SECTIONS UNTIL BEYOND
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR LONG TERM FOCUS AROUND BEGINNING OF
LONG TERM AND PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY...AND ANTICIPATE FROPA NEAR 12Z ACROSS
THE WEST...AND AROUND 15Z FOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING BETWEEN VERY NEAR 12Z-15Z OR A LITTLE LATER FURTHER SE.
GOOD MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION WITH FRONT. MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS RAIN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
FRONT. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MIXED.

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SOUNDINGS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH PRECIP TYPE AT
SURFACE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA.
HOWEVER...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RN/IP NEAR FRONT. WITH
ICE INTRODUCTION ALOFT...FALLING THROUGH STRONG WARM LAYER...NEAR
OR ABOVE 6C...BEFORE STRONG COLD LAYER CLOSER TO SURFACE WITH
FRONT. DEPTH OF NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER VARIES BY MODEL...BUT MOST
INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR REFREEZING AND COULD SEE SLEET. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...FALLING TO NEAR
FREEZING WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FZRN. HOWEVER...FEEL THIS THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SMALL TIMING WINDOW.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. STRONG FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH QUICKLY PUSHING SOUNDING TEMPS BELOW ZERO THROUGH
COLUMN...ENDING CHANCES FOR MELTING IN WARM LAYER...WITH PRECIP AT
SURFACE CHANGING TO RN/SN MIX. AGAIN...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BULK OF
PRECIPITATION PREFRONTAL AND FALLING AS RAIN.

PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES REMAINING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...NOT A
LOT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND HAVE ONLY KEPT FLURRIES
MENTIONED WITH NO ACCUMULATION. FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM SWITCHES
TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. FEW WAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THIS
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY CHANCES MENTIONED SATURDAY. MAY SEE A
CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY SEE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING AGAIN AFTER THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

.AVIATION...11/00Z
MAIN SHORTWAVE STILL TO WEST WITH MAIN LINE OF THUNDER EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE 06-12Z. SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
THIS EVENING WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE STATE FROM 06Z WEST TO 13Z EAST WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO NW DIRECTION AND INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS COLD AIR
MIXES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM RAIN MIXES IN WITH SNOW AND
THEN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z AS SFC GRADIENT WEAKENS. CIGS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT LIFT TOWARD 20-00Z
TIMEFRAME.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

334 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION...10/18Z
GUSTY WINDS...30KTS OR MORE AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MID CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY PRODUCE
ELEVATED SHOWERS...MAINLY VIRGA. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD
FRONT ACROSS ERN NE INTO SERN SD LOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST LOW MVFR DURING THEIR PASSAGE...AND
POSSIBLY IFR. COULD ALSO BE SOME MIXED PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT TEMPS ONLY APPEAR COLD ENOUGH AT KFOD FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

700 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT...TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES TO AROUND 10 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
VARIED GREATLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH TEMP SWINGS AROUND 8
DEGREES NOTED WITHIN THE HOUR AT GLD...SO CONFIDENCE IN REALLY
DROPPING TEMPS TO NEAR CURRENT TD VALUES IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
KS/CO STATE LINE AND OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...NOW EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN TX AND THEN BACK TO THE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS ALL BUT
ENDED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OVER OUR SW CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WHERE CLEARING IS ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WE WILL STILL SEE H85 TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -1C RANGE.
CONSIDERING HOW COLD MANY LOCATIONS GOT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH...TONIGHT
WILL ACTUALLY BE MUCH BETTER FOR COOLING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. RIGHT NOW I HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO
18F ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS.

THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES WITHIN RED FLAG CRITERIA.
WINDS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL SO NO RFW IS PLANNED...HOWEVER THIS MAY
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE EVENT THAT WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOTHING BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ANOTHER BATCH OF
CLOUDS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION HOWEVER. OTHERWISE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK. VRB WINDS AT BEGINNING OF
TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 9-12KTS BY 06Z THEN SHIFT TO
THE W/NW AT 10-15KTS BY 17Z MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH. BY 23Z WINDS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

338 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WAS MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A 400MB JET STREAK
OF 100+ KNOTS EXTENDING CYCLONICALLY FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET HAS HELPED SPAWN A DEEP SURFACE LOW AROUND
993MB OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WERE 50 TO 70 KNOTS, WHICH WAS THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
LED TO WIDESPREAD SURFACE HIGH WIND EVENT WITH NUMEROUS OBS GUSTING
50 TO EVEN 60 KNOTS AT TIMES. MOST IMPRESSIVELY WAS A RECENT
OBSERVATION AT TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO OF A 64 KNOT GUST. WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN THE HIGH WIND AREA,
EXACERBATED BY THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A SHALLOW, NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT THIS MORNING LIFTED BACK NORTH FROM
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AT 19Z
EXTENDED FROM THE 993MB SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF LA JUNTA, COLORADO
TO NEAR GOODLAND, KS TO COLUMBUS, NE. THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17F AT CASPER, WYOMING
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND 79F AT HAYS, KANSAS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

THE HIGH WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH 23Z OR
SO, AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN OFF WITH DUST SETTLING.
AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO, NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS EXPECTED. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN ANY HIGHER
THAN THE MID 50S, WHICH RESULTED IN CAPE 800-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID, INTENSE MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING, ALLOWING CAPE PROFILES TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING. WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DURING THE 00-04Z TIME
FRAME, WITH THE LINE OF FORCING AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AT WHICH POINT WE WILL SEE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH -8 TO -11C 850MB TEMPERATURES DRIVING
SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS
AS WESTERLY COMPONENT MOMENTUM INCREASES OFF THE ROCKIES OF COLORADO
AND WYOMING. WITH THE ADVECTION OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS, LOW
STRATUS MAY BE A CONCERN AND WILL BUMP UP THE SKY GRIDS A LITTLE BIT
TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE MORE CLOUD THAN EARLIER THOUGHT WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF THE COLD AIR AROUND 09Z OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

COLD AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS FALL IS EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUD COVER THINS. LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING.

FAIRLY CHILLY AIR WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL BE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES STILL AROUND 1030MB OVER WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR
EAST. LOWS OUGHT TO BE IN THE 20S.

MAINLY ZONAL MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
MID-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AND GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 30S EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME 20S
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS TO APPROACH
THE PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE MODELS DO SHOW
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF,
VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN WERE MAINTAINED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

HIGH WIND EVENT WAS UNDERWAY AS OF MIDDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE STILL WEST OF THE TERMINALS (DDC, GCK, HYS). SUSTAINED
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT GCK AND DDC
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED AT HYS. A FEW GUSTS AT GCK WILL
APPROACH 50 KNOT. BLOWING DUST WAS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THIS MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND AS A RESULT HAVE PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY TO 3-4 MILES AT GCK AND DDC AS THE VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOP EASTWARD. WILL BE LEAVING THUNDER/CONVECTION OUT OF THE
TAFS AS ONCE THE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS, IT SHOULD BE EAST OF A HYS-
DDC LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 31 44 21 52 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 28 43 19 52 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 28 44 21 51 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 30 44 20 52 / 10 10 10 0
HYS 30 42 19 51 / 10 0 0 0
P28 40 46 23 52 / 40 0 10 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1210 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

FOG TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST HAS EXPANDED
RAPIDLY AND BECOME DENSE IN AND ALONG THE REPUBLICAN RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH FOG STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE...THINK LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. DENSE FOG MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I 70...BUT WITH WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KTS...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE
LONG LASTING IN THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

AREA OF FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOP ALONG NORTHERN CWA...BUT THINK DURATION WILL BE
RATHER SHORT LIVED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND MOIST LAYER
BECOMES MORE AND MORE SHALLOW.

CONCERN IS INCREASING ABOUT POTENTIAL HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WINDS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER WILL HOVER AROUND
50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LATEST NAM INDICATING AREA OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE 00Z ENSEMBLE GFS DATA BEFORE
UPGRADING TO WARNING THOUGH...SO FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE ADJUST
WINDS UP AND ADDED BLOWING DUST TO A FEW AREAS. ALSO EXPANDED
ADVISORY TO RED WILLOW COUNTY BASED ON LATEST DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

AFTER EXAMINING LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL DATA...LATEST LBF
SOUNDING AND NOTING HOW QUICKLY TEMPS ARE FALLING IN THE EAST
CONCERN FOR FOG INCREASING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE FOG
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO END EARLIER THAN NORMAL HOWEVER AS WARM/DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SHIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT...LIKELY REDUCING THE DEPTH OF NEAR SFC
MOIST LAYER TO THE POINT WHERE FOG WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM A TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER
WASHINGTON STATE. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH BREEZY SW WINDS
AND WARMER H85 TEMPS RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE S-SW WITH H85 JET BETWEEN 40-45KT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...THOUGH IF H7 WINDS WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WE COULD APPROACH
WARNING CRITERIA. IM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE 3HR OF SUSTAINED
CRITERIA IN SHERMAN COUNTY AND CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COLORADO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH THERE SO I
WAS COMFORTABLE INCLUDING THEM IN THE ADVISORY.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. ALL
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE DRY LINE REMAINING EAST OF THE
CWA...SO I DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE EAST UNTIL FROPA AND
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE BEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO
CWA BY 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP IT COOL AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EC
RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR
TO WORK WITH...SO MAINLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN...WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO/ADJACENT
PARTS OF NW KS AND SW NB WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IN THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON TIMING WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND A RETURN TO DRY/COOL
CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

DENSE FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS HAS DEVELOPED AT MCCOOK...AND WITH
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN ITR AND GLD THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FRONT REACHES AREA. AFTER THE
FOG CLEARS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING DIRT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT GLD WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS
POSSIBLE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS AREA AROUND
00Z...BRINGING A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ002>004.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COZ091-092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ081.

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1052 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

THE COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE IN...A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. MOST MODELS...THE
CANADIAN...THE EUROPEAN AND THE NAM TO BE SPECIFIC...HAVE INCREASED QPF
AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS DECREASED QPF
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOW
FORECAST. THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
MOST AREAS TO AS HIGH AS AN INCH IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. HPC IS
SUGGESTING TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES IN NORTHERN YUMA
COUNTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS HAPPENED.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ALL THE PRECIPITATION CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN
WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
TRI-STATE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS
FROM MOVING IN UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

MODEL AGREEMENT FROM YESTERDAY ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM HAS TURNED
INTO COMPLETE MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER
NEBRASKA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS 12Z MODEL RUN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL HAS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS NOW
FORECASTING A VERY WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATER...NOW ON
SATURDAY INSTEAD OF FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL AMPLIFIES THIS TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT...THUS MISSING THE
TRI-STATE AREA. IT IS HARD TO DECIDE WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT AT THE
MOMENT...SO JUST WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND. THIS SUGGESTED SLIGHT
CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING IN BEHIND THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SO HAVE GONE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ002>004.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ081.

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1003 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NCNTRL LA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR A BQP /BASTROP/...TO MLU...TO
JUST SE OF IER...TO HEMPHILL AND CXO LINE AS OF 0330Z. THIS FRONTAL
POSITION IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN THE SHORT TERM PROGS
HAVE IT NOW...WITH EXTRAPOLATION TAKING THIS BNDRY OUT OF THE AREA BY
06Z. TEMPS ARE COOLING QUICKLY WITH THE FROPA...WITH AREAS OF SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUING MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE 850-700MB
TROUGH. REGIONAL PROFILERS IN DEQ AND LEDBETTER TX REVEAL THAT THE
700MB TROUGH REMAINS UPON THEM ATTM...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE EVEN RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WITH ONE ISOLATED STORM OVER GREGG/HARRISON/MARION COUNTIES IN
NE TX EARLIER...WITH THIS POTENTIAL PERSISTING WHERE ELEVATED FORCING
REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BISECTING THE CNTRL
CONUS...AND THE AIR MASS HAVING COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SFC AND
850MB FRONT. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO TAPER
THE RAIN OFF EARLIER ACROSS SE OK/WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHILE
MAINTAINING LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FARTHER E FROM DEEP E TX INTO
SCNTRL AR/N LA. FORECAST MIN TEMPS STILL APPEAR WITHIN REACH...AND
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK WHERE A FREEZE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
FALL SEASON.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN GETTING THE 700MB TROUGH
OUT OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE
NEW RAP RUN...AND HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER W INTO NCNTRL LA MONDAY MORNING. BUT THIS RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY
EXIT THE REGION BY MIDMORNING WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH THE POSTFRONTAL
COULD COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING AS WELL AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERS SE AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SFC RIDGE ONCE IT BUILDS SE INTO OK/TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT FROM KMLU TO KLFK PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12/12Z AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE REGION. CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM THE WEST BY 12/12Z ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND 12/18Z ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
/05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 46 62 36 64 37 / 70 10 0 0 0
MLU 51 61 35 61 35 / 80 20 0 0 0
DEQ 33 59 26 60 31 / 20 0 0 0 0
TXK 39 60 34 61 36 / 60 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 58 31 60 34 / 80 10 0 0 0
TYR 38 61 35 62 38 / 20 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 62 33 63 35 / 60 0 0 0 0
LFK 48 66 35 64 37 / 70 10 0 0 0

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

15/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1210 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CREST OVER THE
STATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1205L: MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS OUR FA ATTM W/ BRISK BUT
DRY NW FLOW CONTG... TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S S. CURRENT FCST ON TRACK W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED
ATTM.

UPDATE 0915L: SKIES MOSTLY CLR ACROSS OUR REGION ATTM W/ BRISK BUT
DRY NW FLOW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS/HRLY TEMPS AND RAISED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...

UPDATE 6AM...
INCREASED WIND GUSTS IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO 30 MPH AND
DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING TREND IN OBS/METSAT IMAGERY AND
LATEST GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING HOULTON AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE VERY LITTLE IN NORTHERN ZONES FROM
CURRENT READINGS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN QUEBEC WILL BRING
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE AREA
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S IN NORTHERN
ZONES AND THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F DOWN EAST. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 25 KTS FOR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS SOME H925 MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. RUC SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE BETTER THAN OTHER NWP. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND ALLOWS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUANDARY WILL BE WHEN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THICKEN AND STOP
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GEMS AND
GMOS THAT GIVES UPPER TEENS FOR NORTHERN ZONES. A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
UPPER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER DOWN EAST AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO
MID 20S EXCEPT SOME READINGS CLOSER TO 30F ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE
WARM FRONT SO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH WOODS IN THE
AM HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD ANY OCCUR.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK SUN NIGHT, BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

INTERESTING DAY IN STORE ON MONDAY. EXTRAORDINARILY WARM AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ABOUT 2000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. IF THIS AIR WERE TO MIX DOWN, WE WOULD BE
LOOKING AT ALL TIME RECORD WARM NOVEMBER TEMPS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
NOT HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE WEAK NOVEMBER SUNSHINE AND BECAUSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
MILD (BUT NOT QUITE RECORD WARM) TEMPS.&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY, WITH PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN, PERHAPS VERY BRIEFING CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING TUE EVENING. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR
AVERAGE AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
THU NIGHT. THEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON A PARTIAL BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE, BUT EVEN IF WE DO SEE A BRIEF BREAKDOWN, NO BIG SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING NORTH OF
HUL...OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT WITH PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MON AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 1100L: ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE... WNDS
CURRENTLY GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT THE ERN MAINE SHELF W/ THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO CONT TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTN AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD EWRD. STILL EXPECT A FEW GUSTS
TO 25 KT ERLY THIS AFTN SPCLY ERN SECTIONS BUT WDSPRD SCA CONDS NO
LONGER EXPECTED...

PREV DISC: WILL HOLD THE COURSE ON THE SCA WITH A MIDDAY END
TIME. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL INCREASE WINDS
FROM CURRENT READINGS IN THE COMING HOURS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WILL CAUSE THESE WINDS TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM:
SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASES.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...KHW/MCW
MARINE...KHW/MCW/FOISY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1105 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915L: SKIES MOSTLY CLR ACROSS OUR REGION ATTM W/ BRISK BUT
DRY NW FLOW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS/HRLY TEMPS AND RAISED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING NORTH OF
HUL...OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT WITH PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MON AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM:
SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASES.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...KHW/MCW
MARINE...KHW/MCW/FOISY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

925 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING NORTH OF
HUL...OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT WITH PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MON AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL HOLD THE COURSE ON THE SCA WITH A MIDDAY END TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM
CURRENT READINGS IN THE COMING HOURS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL CAUSE THESE WINDS TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM:
SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASES.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...KHW/MCW
MARINE...KHW/MCW/FOISY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

555 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 6AM...
INCREASED WIND GUSTS IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO 30 MPH AND
DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING TREND IN OBS/METSAT IMAGERY AND
LATEST GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING HOULTON AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE VERY LITTLE IN NORTHERN ZONES FROM
CURRENT READINGS.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING NORTH OF
HUL...OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT WITH PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MON AFTERNOON.
&&

SHORT TERM:
SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MCW
MARINE...MCW/FOISY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

258 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN QUEBEC WILL BRING
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE AREA
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S IN NORTHERN
ZONES AND THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F DOWN EAST. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 25 KTS FOR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS SOME H925 MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. RUC SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE BETTER THAN OTHER NWP. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND ALLOWS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUANDARY WILL BE WHEN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THICKEN AND STOP
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GEMS AND
GMOS THAT GIVES UPPER TEENS FOR NORTHERN ZONES. A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
UPPER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER DOWN EAST AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO
MID 20S EXCEPT SOME READINGS CLOSER TO 30F ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING NORTH OF
HUL...OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT WITH PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MON AFTERNOON.
&&

SHORT TERM:
SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MCW/FOISY
MARINE...MCW/FOISY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

101 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY DAY
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM QUEBEC. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. AM ALSO LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC DEPICTION
OF H925 MOISTURE...BRINGING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THE MORNING.

1000 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVE WILL RAPIDLY
BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER MAINE BY SAT EVE. A MUCH DRIER AND
MODESTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT PRODUCED RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRECIPITABLE H20 IS NOW
0.28" (OR ABOUT ONE HALF OF WHAT IT WAS AT 12Z). THE STRONGER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO SHOWS UP NICELY WITH 50 KT WIND AT 700
MILLIBARS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF
CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE VFR WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY IN THE 3-5 K FT AGL RANGE...BUT THERE
ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MAKE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH AND SHOW A SLOWER
COOLING TREND IN THE WEST THROUGH 08Z...BUT OTHERWISE THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THE STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER THE NORTH BUT REACH THE LOW 40S
DOWNEAST AS DRY AIR KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME THIN HIGH WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY BRING TO STRAY INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE
DAY WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET THRU THE SHORT TERM PD... AFTER A CHILLY AND
BRISK BUT DRY DAY ON SAT...WNDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY SAT EVE AS
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CAN SEWRD INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND SAT AFTN...QUICKLY BUILDS EWRD CRESTING OUR AREA LATER
SAT NGT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CLEAR BUT COLD NGT ACROSS
THE FA W/ FCST LOWS TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS FAR N TO THE UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. A STRONG WARM FRONT DVLPG SW OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS FROM THE SW LATER SAT NGT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL
SPCLY SRN/WRN AREAS. THIS WARM FRONT IS FCST TO LIFT NE UP ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUN W/ CLDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN FROM SW-NE
THRU THE AFTN HRS. AIRMASS INITIALLY QUITE DRY SO WILL BE TUF TO
GENERATE MUCH OVERRUNNING PRECIP BUT DO EXPECT SOME LGT STRATIFORM
PRECIP TO BREAK OUT SPCLY FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS BY SUN AFTN AND
WILL CONT SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS THESE AREAS. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
DVLP COULD INITIALLY FALL AS A LITTLE LGT FZRA/SNOW AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT IF IT OCCURS AT ALL... THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE OF
THE AREA BY SUN NGT W/ A MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SRLY
FLOW TO DVLP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP
VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL SUN NGT INTO MON AM AS STRONG WAA COMMENCES
AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN OUR HRLY TEMPS. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR SOME LOWER CLDS DVLPG FROM S-N LATER SUN NGT INTO
MON...OTHERWISE MON LOOKS VERY WARM BUT DRY W/ SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING MID 50S N AND LOWER 60S S. THE EURO EXTENDED MOS HAS HAD A
BIT BETTER TRACK RECORD THESE SCENARIOS SO LEANED THIS WAY FOR MON
HIGHS W/ NIL POPS EXPECTED...
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FLORIDA TO NEW BRUNSWICK
WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER ALABAMA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE SECOND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MAINE. THE GFS
MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS TH REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. IT SHOWS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY...BUT
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE ECMWF SHOW THE SAME LOW
STARTING AROUND 6Z ON FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS WEAK COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MAINE...AND WELL
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO GENERALLY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS THOUGH IT
DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF IT DOES INDICATE
THAT THERE WILL BE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

LOADED THE GMOS...REPOPULATED THE SKY/POP GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF
GFS/ECMWF. GMOS NOT REFLECTIVE OF EITHER MODEL. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 25 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1AM UPDATE...
WILL GO FOR MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT LOWEST CIGS NEAR FL020 AND CONDITIONS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

NEAR TERM UPDATED AT 1000 PM: MOSTLY VFR AT AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH SAT. CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS MAINLY 3-5 K FT AGL MAY AFFECT
THE TERMINALS AT KCAR AND KPQI AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. HIGH END MVFR
CEILINGS AT KFVE THROUGH 08Z.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU SUN AT ALL TAF SITES... CLDS
WILL THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW-NE ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD EVEN BE SOME VRY LGT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NRN SITES BY SUN AFTN BUT EXPECT CIGS/VSBY
TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. BY SUN NGT...W/ THE WARM FRONT NE OF
THE REGION...A WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SRLY FLOW OVERSPREADS
THE AREA W/ THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER STRATUS DVLPG OUR SRN
SITES. BETTER CHCS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MON NGT INTO TUE AS THIS SRLY FLOW CONTS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN LATER TUE
THRU WED AS THIS COLD FRONT MVS E OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE REGION W/ COLDER AND DRIER AIR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU MON
THO COULD APPROACH MARGINAL SCA CONDS LATE MON AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW
MARINE...MCW/KHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1208 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT...DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WILL PROVIDE
SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
THEN BRING WARM DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT...WITH DETAILS FROM RECENT RAP
AND WRF-NMM RUNS...SHOW A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.

THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO...EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING EASTERN OHIO OR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW A DRY SURFACE LAYER ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
ACCORDINGLY RECENT RAP AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF
DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

BASED ON RECENT GFS AND NAM RELATED GUIDANCE...FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS PROVIDING WARM DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BASED ON RECENT GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE. SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR CAN HAVE SUNDAY HIGHS OF 70.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A STRONG COLD
FRONT...COMING EAST FROM WYOMING...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD UPPER TROUGH WHICH CAN MAINTAIN LINGERING
SCATTERED LAKE-ENHANCED INSTABILITY SHOWERS TUESDAY.

PER RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOL
DOWN TUESDAY TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND...ONLY
RECOVERING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRETCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BKN-OVC VFR CIGS AT MOST PORTS THROUGH
MID-MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VFR RAINFALL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE. WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
AFTER DAWN... ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MID-DECK CLOUD
COVER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WITH THE RISK
FOR HIGHER GUSTS DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

746 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
SCNTRL CANADA THRU THE WRN PLAINS. DEEP SRLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF HAS TRANSPORTED ABUNDANT MOISTURE N INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. 12Z RAOBS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
200-275PCT OF NORMAL OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SHARP
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO THE W OF KIMT. SHARP FRONT PLOWING INTO DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEALTHY UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
130-140KT UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING UP FRONT SIDE OF TROF HAS
RESULTED IN A SOLID BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMP HAS ALREADY PLUMMETED TO 37 AT KIWD WHERE RAIN IS
JUST ABOUT DONE.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...RANGING FROM
PROGRESSION OF RAIN BAND E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLE BRIEF
WINTRY MIX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN...AND THEN TRANSITION TO LES
AND POSSIBLE WINTER WX HEADLINE MON.

FCST FOR THIS EVENING IS LARGELY BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF SHRA.
SINCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERTOP SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SHRA TO
PERSIST ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES E...WILL SPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS
STEADILY E ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SFC COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REACH THE SOO LATE TONIGHT. PCPN
ACROSS THE W AND CNTRL WILL END AS RIBBON OF PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL
DRYING FOLLOWS UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. BEFORE
PCPN ENDS...THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR A LITTLE SLEET THEN SNOW TO
OCCUR AS INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE LINGERING WARMER
AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE ISN`T MUCH SIGNAL FOR SUFFICIENT FORCING
TOO FAR W OF THE COLD FRONT TO COUNTER THE SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING
AND KEEP PCPN LINGERING IN THE COLD AIR FOR TOO LONG. ANY SLEET OR
SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN FRONTAL SHRA BAND
SHOULDN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANYTHING. THE MIXED PCPN POTENTIAL WILL
SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER WITH CAA. LINGERING LIGHT PCPN OVER THE E SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING MON.

AS MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN EXITS...ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WITH SFC WATER TEMPS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 6C...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 850MB TEMPS TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY FOR LES
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z...BUT MORE SO BTWN 09-12Z AS TEMPS WILL BE
DOWN TO -12 TO -14C AT 12Z. MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT WILL INITIALLY WORK TO
KEEP COVERAGE MORE LIMITED. SO SCT COVERAGE POPS FOR -SHSN APPEAR ON
TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

LES FCST GETS MORE INTERESTING MON AS MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND POOL
OF DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES. THIS RESULTS IN INVERSION LIFTING TOWARD
10KFT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -13C THRU THE DAY...DGZ
ENDS UP WITHIN THE MOIST CONVECTIVE LAYER...AND AT LEAST WITH THE
NAM...THERE IS A NICE INTERSECTION OF UPWARD MOTION THRU THE DGZ.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CRITICAL. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS (LOCAL HIGH
RES WRF AND NCEP HIGH RES ARW/NMM) INCLUDING NAM/REGIONAL GEM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE OF A WSW WIND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A DOMINANT CONVERGENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND STREAMING TOWARD THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA MON...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE FOR THIS TYPE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
SCENARIO. WITH POTENTIAL OF MDT TO PERHAPS HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AT
TIMES GIVEN FAVORABLE TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE...OPTED TO GO WITH A
WINTER WX ADVY FOR NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES MON. EXPECT MAIN
FOCUS OF HEAVIER LES TO BE N OF HOUGHTON...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AROUND CALUMET THRU DELAWARE WHERE SNOW
MAY ACCUMULATE TO AROUND 4 INCHES DURING THE DAY MON. VERY LATE IN THE
AFTN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TO THE W WHICH WILL PUSH
HEAVIER SNOW OVER MORE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SINCE ONTONAGON
COUNTY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND POSSIBLY S OF MOST OF
THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...DID NOT INCLUDE ADVY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS
TIME. TO THE E...WINDS WILL PROBABLY HAVE ENOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT
TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEVELOPING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFFSHORE OF
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT FLURRIES/-SHSN TO
ACCOMPANY ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI MON. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE VERY LITTLE. IN FACT...TO THE W...TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE ONLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S IN THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. SO...TEMPS LIKELY
WON`T RISE OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 20S OVER WRN UPPER MI MON...AND
TEMPS MAY FALL SOME OVER THE E AS CAA CONTINUES THRU THE MORNING IN
THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING IN THE LONG TERM WITH
MAIN FOCUS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH LES.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA /E OF THE
KEWEENAW/ AT 00Z TUE WITH A SLIGHTLY LAGGING SFC TROUGH OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CAUSES CONCERN
WITH CHANCES FOR LES PARTICULARLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -11C AT 00Z TUE...WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION
ABOVE THE DGZ AT AROUND 9500FT WITH TEMPS AROUND -24C. WHILE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAT A FEW HOURS
BEFORE...THE INVERSION LOOKS TO BE DEEPEST AROUND 00Z TUE...SO BEST
OVERALL AVG COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEEN AROUND THIS TIME.
AFTER 00Z TUE...A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY 18Z TUE WITH 850MB
TEMPS STEADILY INCREASING TO AOA -5C BY 00Z WED. MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL BE AMPLE FOR LES AT 00Z...WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z TUE. MOISTURE
FROM 850MB AND UP WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 60 PERCENT RH OVER THE WRN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 09Z TUE...AND OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BY 15Z
TUE. 925MB-850MB RH DECREASES BELOW 60 PERCENT OVER THE WRN HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TUE...AND THE MOST OF THE REST OF THE LAKE BY
00Z WED. AT LEAST FROM 00Z TUE TO 06Z WED...WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO
35-40MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE W WINDS. COLD SECTOR
LIVING AT ITS BEST.

TAKING A CLOSER LOOKS AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND OTHER HAZARDS FOR TUE
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WHICH IS
GOOD FOR LES BANDING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM A WSW
DIRECTION MON EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR A DOMINANT BAND WITH
INTENSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATE MON. THOSE WSW WINDS BECOME MORE WLY
BY 00Z TUE AND SLOWLY VEER INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
W. THIS WILL MOVE THE WEAKENING DOMINANT BAND FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY MON NIGHT...BUT THE FACT THAT
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER WILL KEEP THE STRONGER BAND FROM SITTING
OVER ANY ONE PLACE FOR TOO LONG...HELPING TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS
FROM GETTING TO HIGH. THE BEST AREA OF LIFT WILL SPAN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP MAKE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS HIGH...BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL KNOCK THOSE DOWN SOME. EXPECT SLR VALUES AROUND 18-20 TO
1. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MON NIGHT /ON TOP OF WHAT FALL MON/
LOOK TO BE UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM ROCKLAND TO SOUTH RANGE. WITH THE WINDS...BLOWING SNOW WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE...BUT A LIMITED ONE GIVEN NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
YET. AS FOR THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE OVER THE KEWEENAW...BY 12Z TUE
WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20MPH OR LESS AND SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED...SO CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON HOW
WELL ROAD CREWS CAN CLEAR EARLIER SNOW OFF THE ROADS...BUT AT LEAST
SLICK ROADS APPEAR LIKELY.

WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MORE WNW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE ERN CWA
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR /MAINLY E OF MUNISING/ SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKIER OVER
THERE...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN AND HOW FAR LES BAND
WILL MOVE ONSHORE. SIMILAR TO THE KEWEENAW THERE SHOULD BE A MORE
DOMINANT BAND SITTING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE
AS CONDITIONS START TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LES. PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK A FEW HOURS FROM TIMING OVER THE KEWEENAW...SO THE
BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER ONSHORE AROUND 06Z TUE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING SHORTLY DUE TO DRIER AIR AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
GRADUALLY MOVING IN. COULD SEE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

HAVE A WINTER WX ADV THAT EXTENDS TO 12Z TUE FOR NRN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES. WILL POSSIBLY NEED AN ADV FOR ONTONAGON AND MAYBE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY MON NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE THOSE DETAILS TO
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. ALSO MAY NEED AN ADV FOR PARTS
OF THE ERN CWA CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE EVEN
LESS CERTAIN.

WITH FAIRLY BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER AFTER CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
TUE...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SO AS TO PLACE MOST TIME/EMPHASIS ON SHORTER TERM IMPACTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
AT KIWD AND KCMX AS DRIER COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FM THE WEST. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
AT KCMX. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR AT KIWD DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AS WINDS BACK FM WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND FLOW BCMS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. AT KCMX...A DOMINANT SNOW BAND FORMING
FROM THE APOSTLE ISLANDS INTO KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL GRADUALLY DIP
SOUTH LATE MONDAY AND BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT
THAT TIME. AT SAW...IFR CIGS IN RAIN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS AND WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AT KSAW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN A DOWNSLOPE WSW FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

SHARP COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...S WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO
GALE FORCE AT TIMES THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA AROUND
GRAND MARAIS WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONG WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH CAA IS STRONG BEHIND COLD FRONT...LACK OF STRONGER SFC PRES
RISES WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING BLO GALE
FORCE TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST A BIT ON MON AS
SECONDARY SFC TROF APPROACHES. WITH COLD AIR AND UNSTABLE
LOW-LEVELS...OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT ARE POSSIBLE MON/MON
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN SLACKENS LATE MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BLO 25 KTS. A LOW PRES TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO THU. S WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROF COULD REACH 25 KTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS TO
FINISH UP THE WEEK WILL BE BLO 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES
WEAK WITH SFC HIGH PRES PASSING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1152 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY... WITH DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS... AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.

THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT... THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

I UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW HOURLY TIMING... THROUGH 7 AM...FOR
THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 615 PM THIS EVENING I AM SEEING SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR CHICAGO AND I EXPECT THAT AREA TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE IT EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD. RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 10000 AND 18000 FT OVER MOST
OF THE CWA BUT NEAR I-94 THE DRY LAYER IS NOT QUIET AS DRY NEAR
I-94 THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A NOSE OF WARMER AND NEARLY SATURATED
AIR BETWEEN 5000 FT AND 10000 FT IN THE SOUNDING NEAR I-94 THAT
WOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WITH EQL TO NEAR
30000 FT FROM NOW TILL AROUND 06Z. SO ADDED TIMING TO THE GRIDS TO
SHOW THE HOURLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION USING THE SREF AND
HRRR AS A BASIS. I PUT THE FOG NEAR ROUTE 10 FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS NAILING DOWN PCPN TRENDS AND
TSTM POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 BASED ON LATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS WHICH
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.

LATEST WRF-NMM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE SRN CWFA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z... WITH
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCE AND VERY LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL THEN SHIFTING
NORTH INTO THE NRN CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL HAVE POPS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING
THE WARM FRONT... WITH COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE DRY WARM SECTOR SWEEPS IN.

HAVE INCLUDED A FOG THREAT IN THE NRN CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST THE SEE THE WARM FRONT PASS THROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW GREATER THAN 90 PCT RH.

HAVE DELAYED POPS A BIT WITH THE COLD FRONT... WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE/DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS
HIGH ONCE THE FRONT DOES ARRIVE... BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING CONSIDERABLY SO OPTED TO REMOVE TSTMS WITH THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM IS FRONT LOADED IN THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME....WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MID AND
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOLID RAIN
CHANCES EXIST ON MONDAY WITH DEEP LIFT RESULTING IN RAIN AROUND A
HALF INCH.

COLD AIR COMES SLAMMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO C AT 12Z MONDAY TO -10C AT 00Z THAT
EVENING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PULLS AWAY WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO GET GOING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT WHERE DELTA T/S WILL
INCREASE TO A SUBSTANTIAL 20 DEG C. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN
MONDAY NIGHT BUT FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING IT SOME. THE WIND
WILL BE FAIRLY STIFF MONDAY EVENING (850MB 270/30KTS) SO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
SPOTS. AS THE TIME FRAME COMES CLOSER WE WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE AMOUNTS...BUT MOISTURE AND THE QUICKNESS IN WHICH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SLIDING OUT ARE NEGATIVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DWINDLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOMES QUICKLY ZONAL ON
TUESDAY AND REMAINS THAT WAY THE REST OF THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS
MODIFY TO MORE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME BETWEEN
-2 AND +2 C. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

I EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS THE
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL CLEAR FIRST (PRIOR TO 16Z)
WHILE THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (I-96) WILL SEE CLEARING IN THE 18Z-
20Z TIME FRAME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST PART STAYED
SOUTH OF THE GRR CWA THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. THERE IS YET ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER WI HEADING NORTHEAST AND THOSE SHOULD PASS NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STRONG CYCLONE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
MINNESOTA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

WEEKEND RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
BULK OF THIS WILL PROBABLY BE FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS
AND WILL HELP CHIP AWAY FURTHER AT THE SIGNIFICANT DEFICITS CREATED
DURING THE SUMMER DROUGHT.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

515 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Tonight through Tuesday):

Impressive upper trough moving east through the Plains late this
afternoon. Best lift/sensible weather occurring well downstream over
the mid MO River Valley where mixed precipitation is falling. The
combination of significant cold air advection through the entire
column, elevated frontogenesis and increasing upper level jet
dynamics has allowed sleet to form on the western edge of the rain
shield. Short range models, HRRR, RAP and NAM all clear out the
precipitation over the eastern counties by 03Z. Have slowed down the
end of the precipitation slightly due to the positive tilt of the
upper trough and the associated strong upper level jet dynamics.

Weather looking pretty tranquil after the upper trough axis passes
through the CWA early Monday. Strong subsidence on the back side of
the trough should greatly limit the effects of a secondary vorticity
lobe sliding through eastern NE/KS during the day. Although the
models show warm air advection occurring on Monday its effects will
be muted due to such a cold start to the day.

A semi-zonal flow pattern will ensue over the central U.S. by Monday
night and continue into mid week. A fast moving shortwave embedded
within this flow will streak through KS/NE/IA/MO on Tuesday,
However, moisture will be limited, especially within the boundary
layer so should only see a modest pick up in clouds with moderate
warm air advection resulting in seasonally average temperatures.

Medium Range (Wednesday through Sunday):

A few troughs may drop through primarily zonal flow during the
latter half of the week; however, with dry surface high pressure
sitting over the southeastern U.S, precipitation chances look very
low through at least Saturday. Temperatures should hover around to a
few degrees below normal in the absence of any amplified troughing
or ridging through the Plains, with highs mainly in the 50`s and
lows in the 30`s.

As the surface high weakens and gradually slides eastward Saturday,
both the EC and GFS bringing a shortwave trough into Nebraska and
eastern Kansas, potentially fueling widespread but light, scattered
precipitation especially across the western half of the CWA. Aloft,
temperatures look warm enough for a liquid precipitation type across
the region, especially without any deep cold air poised to filter in
behind the system.

Laflin

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs...MVFR cloud cover is quickly shifting east behind a
a cold front that swept through earlier today. Clearing is current
timed to spread across the terminals around 01Z, with VFR conditions
to then prevail. Did add some minor gusty west winds to the forecast
for Monday afternoon.

Cutter

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

158 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF
DUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STEER DUST FROM
EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND KEPT IN
FORECAST UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 11/02Z-11/06Z...ALONG WITH THE SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER THEREAFTER. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO 18025G35KTS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 11/04Z-11/06Z...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE AN TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 11/12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

UPDATE...VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS STRATUS
CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. WHILE A FEW SITES REMAIN WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE THIS IS
RIGHT NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...SO WENT AHEAD AN LET FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9AM AS WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY TO INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

UPDATE...STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA AND WITH LITTLE HOPE OF IT CLEARING OUT BY 12Z...WENT
AHEAD LAST HOUR AND EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z.
GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE RAP...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRATUS
AND ASSOCIATED FOG WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ONE LAST
NOTE...PHILLIPS COUNTY WAS REMOVED FROM THE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITY IS WELL ABOVE 1/4SM AND THE STRATUS AS MOVED NORTH OF
THAT COUNTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. OVERNIGHT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH THE ADDITION OF THIS JET ENERGY...WITH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
MAXING OUT AT AROUND 100KTS NEAR 100MB PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF ~70KTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF ~120KTS ARE NOTED ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
WEST OF OUR AREA...MORE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WORKING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT DIPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE LOW INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXIST ACROSS OUR CWA AS A RESULT...WITH KK61 AND KHJH IN THE MID
60S AND LOCATIONS FROM KHSI NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXPANSIVE STRATUS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH LOCATIONS FROM KHDE...TO KLXN
AND KODX REPORTING CEILINGS NEAR 200FT AGL AND VISIBILITIES NEAR
1/4SM.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE 285-295K
SURFACES...PER RAP DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRATUS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS STRATUS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINNING TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD AND NEARING
KEAR...KGRI AND KHSI THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE PER THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST...SO SHOULD THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND RESULTANT STRATUS. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE
STRATUS LINGERING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED 15Z- 18Z. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY HOWEVER...STRATUS TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE DAY SHIFT WITH UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE BY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THE SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH FROPA EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE
ACROSS OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT.

MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
LATER TODAY. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
CELLS COULD INITIALIZE AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS
IT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA. POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WILL
PROMOTE AFTERNOON 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF ~1000J/KG PER THE NAM AND
EC. IN ADDITION TO THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL ALSO PROMOTE DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. FINALLY...A VEERING
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WILL HELP PROMOTE 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
300M^2/S^2. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT SHOULD SUCH ISOLATED ACTIVITY BE
REALIZED...THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED
TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS A RESULT WILL
CERTAINLY KEEP LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO WORDING GOING IN
THE HWO. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
TO BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS QLCS DEVELOPMENT CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 00Z...A SOLUTION ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM. GIVEN THIS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STRONG WIND WORDING IN THE HWO.

STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS STILL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE
CWA TODAY. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULT OF
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. A BLEND OF
MET/NAM GUIDANCE AND MAV/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-30KTS WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION TO
THESE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WILL BE REALIZED
WHICH IS WHERE ~405TS WINDS WILL BE WAITING FOR TRANSPORT TO THE
SURFACE...THUS PROVIDING AN AFTERNOON GUST POTENTIAL NEAR 40KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE CWA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING STRONG
WINDS TODAY...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE
MET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG A
CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM KPHG TO KHDE AND KEAR. WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH AS A RESULT WITH
THE TIMING LEFT UNCHANGED...STILL IN EFFECT 18Z-00Z.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE RISES COMMENCE POST-FROPA.
GUIDANCE FROM THE MET AND MAV BOTH SUGGEST VARIOUS LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR CWA...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH...COULD BRIEFLY MEET
WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT. CONTEMPLATED EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND EXTENDING IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL BREVITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
REALIZED POST-FROPA...ULTIMATELY DECIDED THAT EXPANDING THE WIND
ADVISORY EVEN FARTHER WOULD BE A BIT EXCESSIVE AND OPTED TO LET
THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT FUTURE GUIDANCE BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WILL WORK TO COOL THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO MUCH SO THAT FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW PRODUCTION
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO BOTH SUGGEST THAT AN
INDIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...EVEN
AFTER THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-
MEAN ALL SUGGEST THE BULK OF THIS LIFT AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
REMAINING LIGHT AND QUITE BRIEF...WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 09Z. GIVEN
THIS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA...IF ANY...ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE MAIN THEME: AFTER A BLAST OF SERIOUS COLD WE GRADUALLY RETURN
TO NORMAL TUE-THU WITH THE NEXT RAIN EVENT SLATED FOR FRI AND AT
LEAST ONE MORE AFTER THAT AS WE BENEFIT FROM WRN USA LONGWAVE
TROF.

COULD WE SEE NEAR NORMAL PCPN THIS MONTH? WE ARE HEADING TOWARD
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL "DRY" SEASON. SO NOV`S NORMAL PCPN AT GRI IS
JUST 1.17" AND TODAY`S EVENT FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN POTENTIAL FRI
AND AGAIN JUST BEFORE THXGVG SUGGEST IT`S ON THE TABLE.
THEREAFTER...NA ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HGTS SUGGEST A PATTERN CHANGE IS
POSSIBLE WITH A RETURN TO A WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF SCENARIO.
GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE PNA REMAINS NEGATIVE THRU THXGVG...BUT
+NAO WANES AND TURNS NEGATIVE. NOT SURE OF THE EVENTUAL
CONSEQUENCES AS THIS RESULTS IN A MIXED SIGNAL...WITH A -PNA
SUPPORTIVE OF A WRN USA TROF AND A -NAO SUPPORTIVE OF AN ERN USA
TROF. STAY TUNED...

HAZARDS: WE COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MON AFTN S/W OF GRI.

THE POTENT TROF AND ITS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DEPART TO THE E
MON... FOLLOWED BY LOW AMPLITUDE BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUE-
WED. THIS ALLOWS FOR TEMP RECOVERY. MEANWHILE A PIECE OF THE DEEP
PAC TROF /CURRENTLY NEAR 160W IN WV IMAGERY/ BREAKS OFF TUE AS
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE W COAST OF NOAM. THE SRN PORTION
WILL BE HERE FRI.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PROBABLY RESULTS IN A COUPLE HRS
OF P-M/CLOUDY AROUND DAWN. THIS PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...SUNNY. TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER BUT WILL STILL BE 10-15F
BELOW NORMAL. USED BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS WHICH WERE ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE TEMPS.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WHICH WILL STILL LEAVE A NASTY BITE IN THE
AIR.

TUE: P-M/SUNNY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD START...TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

WED: P/SUNNY. NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

WED NGT: WIND SHIFT TO NE AS THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES THRU ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CANADA.

THU: M/SUNNY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

MODELS: THERE`S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE TROF AT 00Z/FRI. THE 00Z USA/INTL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE TOWARD THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY /SRN CA VERSUS NM/. THE 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH SLOWER AND
HAVE DISCOUNTED IT PREFERRING ITS 12Z/9 VERSION.

MULTIPLE CHANGES WERE COORDINATED W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES REGARDING
THU NGT-FRI.

THU NGT: LOW TEMPS WERE CHANGED/INCREASED TO CONSENSUS OF 2M TEMPS
SINCE NO MOS IS INCLUDED. THIS EFFECTIVELY RAISED LOW TEMPS 3F.
ALL-BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD FOR ALL THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL BE
AROUND.

FRI: PROBABLY CLOUDY. RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET BUT ITS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF EVERYONE GETS WET. POPS WERE ADJUSTED/RAISED TO
30% AND BELIEVE WE`LL EVENTUALLY GO MUCH HIGHER. WE`VE NOTED 4 OF
THE 16 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OFFERING 0.5" OF QPF. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEG.

FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND SOUTH OF I-80. RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20-25% RANGE
WHILE THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS SUSTAINED AT NEARLY 30KTS AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 40KTS. THAT BEING SAID...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 20% FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND
AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. STILL...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE OUTLOOKING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FWF AND HWO...AGAIN FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND SOUTH I-80.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ060>062-072>076-
082>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

AVIATION/UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1157 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 11/02Z-11/06Z...ALONG WITH THE SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER THEREAFTER. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO 18025G35KTS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 11/04Z-11/06Z...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE AN TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 11/12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE MAIN THEME: AFTER A BLAST OF SERIOUS COLD WE GRADUALLY RETURN
TO NORMAL TUE-THU WITH THE NEXT RAIN EVENT SLATED FOR FRI AND AT
LEAST ONE MORE AFTER THAT AS WE BENEFIT FROM WRN USA LONGWAVE
TROF.

HAZARDS: WE COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MON AFTN S/W OF GRI.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WHICH WILL STILL LEAVE A NASTY BITE IN THE
AIR.

TUE: P-M/SUNNY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD START...TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

WED: P/SUNNY. NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

WED NGT: WIND SHIFT TO NE AS THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES THRU ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CANADA.

THU: M/SUNNY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

MULTIPLE CHANGES WERE COORDINATED W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES REGARDING
THU NGT-FRI.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ060>062-072>076-
082>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

UPDATE/AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

937 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE...VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS STRATUS
CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. WHILE A FEW SITES REMAIN WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE THIS IS
RIGHT NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...SO WENT AHEAD AN LET FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9AM AS WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY TO INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH 02Z...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 12Z-14Z AND
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 02Z-06Z. PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY ~20 MILES WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THUS
REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF THROUGH 02Z. THE LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD HOWEVER PROVIDE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE
TERMINAL...BUT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THAT IS REALIZED SHOULD
BE NO LOWER THAN 3SM...THUS THE TEMPO 3SM IN BR 12Z-14Z. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL LATER
TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...SUSTAINED NEAR 25KTS AND
GUSTING NEAR 35KTS...EXPECTED 18Z-00Z. SOME DIMINISHMENT IN THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL THEN PRESENT ITSELF TONIGHT...SUSTAINED NEAR
23KTS AND GUSTING NEAR 32KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINAL 22Z-02Z...HOWEVER THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE ONLY
WARRANTS A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. A BETTER CHANCE FOR -RASN
WILL INFILTRATE THE TERMINAL BY 02Z...WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000FT
AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE MAIN THEME: AFTER A BLAST OF SERIOUS COLD WE GRADUALLY RETURN
TO NORMAL TUE-THU WITH THE NEXT RAIN EVENT SLATED FOR FRI AND AT
LEAST ONE MORE AFTER THAT AS WE BENEFIT FROM WRN USA LONGWAVE
TROF.

HAZARDS: WE COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MON AFTN S/W OF GRI.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WHICH WILL STILL LEAVE A NASTY BITE IN THE
AIR.

TUE: P-M/SUNNY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD START...TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

WED: P/SUNNY. NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

WED NGT: WIND SHIFT TO NE AS THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES THRU ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CANADA.

THU: M/SUNNY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

MULTIPLE CHANGES WERE COORDINATED W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES REGARDING
THU NGT-FRI.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ060>062-072>076-
082>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT
LONG TERM....HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

611 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE...STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA AND WITH LITTLE HOPE OF IT CLEARING OUT BY 12Z...WENT
AHEAD LAST HOUR AND EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z.
GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE RAP...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRATUS
AND ASSOCIATED FOG WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ONE LAST
NOTE...PHILLIPS COUNTY WAS REMOVED FROM THE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITY IS WELL ABOVE 1/4SM AND THE STRATUS AS MOVED NORTH OF
THAT COUNTY.

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH 02Z...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 12Z-14Z AND
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 02Z-06Z. PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY ~20 MILES WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THUS
REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF THROUGH 02Z. THE LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD HOWEVER PROVIDE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE
TERMINAL...BUT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THAT IS REALIZED SHOULD
BE NO LOWER THAN 3SM...THUS THE TEMPO 3SM IN BR 12Z-14Z. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL LATER
TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...SUSTAINED NEAR 25KTS AND
GUSTING NEAR 35KTS...EXPECTED 18Z-00Z. SOME DIMINISHMENT IN THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL THEN PRESENT ITSELF TONIGHT...SUSTAINED NEAR
23KTS AND GUSTING NEAR 32KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINAL 22Z-02Z...HOWEVER THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE ONLY
WARRANTS A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. A BETTER CHANCE FOR -RASN
WILL INFILTRATE THE TERMINAL BY 02Z...WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000FT
AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE MAIN THEME: AFTER A BLAST OF SERIOUS COLD WE GRADUALLY RETURN
TO NORMAL TUE-THU WITH THE NEXT RAIN EVENT SLATED FOR FRI AND AT
LEAST ONE MORE AFTER THAT AS WE BENEFIT FROM WRN USA LONGWAVE
TROF.

HAZARDS: WE COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MON AFTN S/W OF GRI.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WHICH WILL STILL LEAVE A NASTY BITE IN THE
AIR.

TUE: P-M/SUNNY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD START...TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

WED: P/SUNNY. NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

WED NGT: WIND SHIFT TO NE AS THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES THRU ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CANADA.

THU: M/SUNNY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

MULTIPLE CHANGES WERE COORDINATED W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES REGARDING
THU NGT-FRI.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ060>062-072>076-082>087.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-040-
046-060-061-072-073-082-083.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.

0611 AM UPDATE/AVIATION/SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

424 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. OVERNIGHT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH THE ADDITION OF THIS JET ENERGY...WITH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
MAXING OUT AT AROUND 100KTS NEAR 100MB PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF ~70KTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF ~120KTS ARE NOTED ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
WEST OF OUR AREA...MORE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WORKING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT DIPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE LOW INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXIST ACROSS OUR CWA AS A RESULT...WITH KK61 AND KHJH IN THE MID
60S AND LOCATIONS FROM KHSI NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXPANSIVE STRATUS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH LOCATIONS FROM KHDE...TO KLXN
AND KODX REPORTING CEILINGS NEAR 200FT AGL AND VISIBILITIES NEAR
1/4SM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE MAIN THEME: AFTER A BLAST OF SERIOUS COLD WE GRADUALLY RETURN
TO NORMAL TUE-THU WITH THE NEXT RAIN EVENT SLATED FOR FRI AND AT
LEAST ONE MORE AFTER THAT AS WE BENEFIT FROM WRN USA LONGWAVE
TROF.

HAZARDS: WE COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MON AFTN S/W OF GRI.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WHICH WILL STILL LEAVE A NASTY BITE IN THE
AIR.

TUE: P-M/SUNNY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD START...TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

WED: P/SUNNY. NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

WED NGT: WIND SHIFT TO NE AS THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES THRU ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CANADA.

THU: M/SUNNY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LGT WINDS.

MULTIPLE CHANGES WERE COORDINATED W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES REGARDING
THU NGT-FRI.

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND SOUTH OF I-80. RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20-25% RANGE
WHILE THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS SUSTAINED AT NEARLY 30KTS AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 40KTS. THAT BEING SAID...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH 20% FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND
AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. STILL...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE OUTLOOKING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FWF AND HWO...AGAIN FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND SOUTH I-80.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH 02Z...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06Z-10Z AND
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 02Z AND BEYOND. PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS WILL BE THE STRATUS AND AREAS OF
FOG WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ~60 MILES WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS WILL PIVOT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT AS A MASS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THUS REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF
THROUGH 02Z. THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD HOWEVER PROVIDE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL...BUT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION THAT IS REALIZED SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN 5SM...THUS
THE TEMPO 5SM IN BR 06Z-10Z. A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...SUSTAINED NEAR 25KTS AND GUSTING NEAR 35KTS...EXPECTED
18Z-00Z. SOME DIMINISHMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE
AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL THEN
PRESENT ITSELF TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED NEAR 23KTS AND
GUSTING NEAR 32KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL 22Z-02Z...HOWEVER THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS
A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
INFILTRATE THE TERMINAL BY 02Z...WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ060>062-072>076-082>087.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-
040-046-060-061-072-073-082-083.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1231 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IS PRESENTING CEILINGS IN THE
100-300FT AGL RANGE...WITH FOG ALSO BEING REPORTED. FOG HAS
DROPPED TO 1/4SM OR LOWER FROM KODX TO KHDE AND FOR POINTS TO THE
WEST. THE RAP APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
EVOLVING SITUATION AND THUS PLAYED VERY CLOSE TO RAP GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST. BASED ON RAP DATA...THE STRATUS DECK AND
ASSOCIATED FOG SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT
6 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALSO CONTINUES MOVING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...TRENDS...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BE EXITING
THE CWA TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY 12Z...BUT WILL CERTAINLY
CONTINUE MONITORING TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO. ALSO
TOOK THIS OPPORTUNITY TO UPDATE HOURLY SKY...TEMPERATURE AND WIND
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH 02Z...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06Z-10Z AND
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 02Z AND BEYOND. PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS WILL BE THE STRATUS AND AREAS OF
FOG WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ~60 MILES WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS WILL PIVOT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT AS A MASS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THUS REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF
THROUGH 02Z. THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD HOWEVER PROVIDE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL...BUT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION THAT IS REALIZED SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN 5SM...THUS
THE TEMPO 5SM IN BR 06Z-10Z. A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...SUSTAINED NEAR 25KTS AND GUSTING NEAR 35KTS...EXPECTED
18Z-00Z. SOME DIMINISHMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE
AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL THEN
PRESENT ITSELF TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED NEAR 23KTS AND
GUSTING NEAR 32KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL 22Z-02Z...HOWEVER THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS
A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
INFILTRATE THE TERMINAL BY 02Z...WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK WILL CREEP BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND LOWER. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE AREA OF FOG
TONIGHT AND INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES IF THE
DENSE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

ALSO LOWERED OUR EXPECTED MIN TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. EXPECT A CLEAR AND QUIET EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LOW STRATUS DECK HAS ONLY SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF KGRI AND AM CONCERNED THAT IT
COULD SLIDE BACK INTO KGRI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED AN IFR CEILING INTO THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS PRIOR TO MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE VERY
GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT NEARS KGRI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE
WITH FOG TONIGHT...WIND AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW.

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE SERN CONUS...AND THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN ROCKIES/WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ROCKIES...EXTENDING INTO ERN CO/WRN
KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE E/NE INTO FAR SERN
NEB. THERE WAS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE
WRN/ERN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE NRN EDGES HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT A STUBBORN AREA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S...WHILE LOCATIONS
LIKE HJH WHICH SAW PLENTY OF SUN JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE ROCKIES....BUT EVEN BY 12Z SATURDAY REMAINS WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS STARTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ESP OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP DRAW THE SFC
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KS NORTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO DIDNT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE
WINDS...BUT AM WORRIED THAT WITH LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS IN
PART TO THE STRATUS FROM TODAY...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME FOG. ALONG WITH MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR/SREF/NAM SHOWING
DECREASING VISIBILITIES TO INSERT A MENTION OF FOG...MAINLY I-80
AND NORTH. SOUTH OF THERE...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER SPEEDS
SHOULD KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
THINKING THAT BY THE TIME 12Z SATURDAY ROLLS AROUND...WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD HAVE SWITCHED TO THE SOUTH...PUSHING BETTER
CHANCES FOR FOG TO THE NORTH. ALSO...WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BUILDING ITS WAY IN TONIGHT...SHOULDNT SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT FOR AREAS THAT SEE THOSE LIGHTER WINDS
EARLIER ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ONCE THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED...TEMPS SHOULD START TO LEVEL OFF AND
POTENTIAL COME UP A FEW DEGREES.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW...THE BIG STORY LIES WITH INCREASING LIFT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH IS
GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE HASNT BEEN MUCH
CHANGE IN THE MODELS OVERALL...AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE PATTERN...THE DAY
STARTS OUT WITH THAT WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS OR JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA...AND GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN...AND SHIFT CLOSER TO THE CWA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE NW
CORNER OF THE CWA...WHILE A DRYLINE BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO
WRN/SWRN AREAS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY...AND AT THIS
POINT KEPT IT CONFINED TO NC KS...WHICH HAS BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS/GUIDANCE...BUT MID CREW WILL HAVE TO HAVE TO TAKE A
CLOSE LOOK AT POSSIBLY EXPANDING IT...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
JUST WASNT AS HIGH WITH OTHER LOCATIONS. LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST
WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL IN PLACE.

LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...IT WILL BE CLOSE...ESP IN THE
SW CORNER OF THE CWA. WITH THE CWA SITTING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SURFACE PATTERN...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE 70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
RECORDS IN DANGER/. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/MET/MAV FOR
DEWPOINTS TOMORROW...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY LOWER
NEAR/BEHIND THAT DRYLINE BOUNDARY IN THE 30S. THE WINDS NEEDED FOR
CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS ARE THERE...BUT EVEN WITH THE LOW END USED
FOR DEWPOINTS...STILL COULDNT GET RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT...SO
HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE. WILL BE ANOTHER THING FOR THE MID CREW
TO KEEP AN EYE ON...NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO BE LOWERED MUCH
MORE/IF AT ALL...BUT ANY INCREASE IN HIGHS COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS.

DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME
AN INCREASING CONCERN...AND LIFT CONTINUES TO RISE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM...AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TAKE THEIR PLACES IN THE
CWA. MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION...SHEAR REALLY ISNT AN ISSUE. THE BETTER AFTERNOON CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOK TO COME ROUGHLY BETWEEN
21-00Z...MAINLY ALONG THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION /WHICH WONT HAVE
AS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO/ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL LEAVE THINGS
AS IS IN THE HWO.

LONG TERM...STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT TRACKING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS FRONT IS RAPIDLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. THIS INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY WANES AFTER AROUND 03Z...HOWEVER...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...SO ONLY KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE VERY COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AT MOST. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND TAPERED OFF ALREADY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WITH
ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA. IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING/PRE DAWN HOURS SUNDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH RAPID PRESSURE
RISES RESULTING IN A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...EXPECT
FOR A CHILLY END TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. WITH LACK OF APPRECIABLE
DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW...EXPECT A DRY WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION COMING LATE IN THE WEEK...WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-
040-046-060-061-072-073-082-083.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.

1231 AM UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1147 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ADDED MORE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...KOGA AND KIML ARE
FOGGING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DENSE FOG BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR
SHOWS WINDS DECREASING BOTH AT THE SFC AND TO NEAR 850MB WHICH
SUPPORTS MOISTURE POOLING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES ALOFT PROMOTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MODELS SHOW A BELT OF CALM WINDS LIFTING
NORTH TOWARD THE SD BORDER TOWARD MORNING WHERE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR. STILL...THERE IS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE KS BORDER AS SHOWN
AT THE KMCK AND KLXN OBS...1/4SM IN FOG. SO ADDED COUNTIES TO THE
FOG ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

IFR/LIFR IN FOG AND LOW/VERY LOW CIGS IMPROVES TO VFR/MVFR/IFR LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG IS ONGOING AT ONEILL ACROSS HOLT COUNTY. THE RAP...NAM
AND HRRR INDICATE WINDS AT THE SFC AND ON UP TO 850 MB WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT BY MORNING PROMOTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER AREAS FROM ONEILL TO
VALENTINE. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL BE ADDED AS WARRANTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS...COOL MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
ARE THE RECIPE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR ARE GIVING
THE FOG SIGNAL TONIGHT BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OPERATING
ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES...RAPID WEATHER CHANGES
FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE ARE TO BE EXPECTED. THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED PIECEMEAL TONIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL BE
ADDED TO THE FOG ADVISORY AS WARRANTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE FROM A PERSISTENT DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GETS DRAWN WESTWARD UP THE HIGH PLAINS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE. A BROAD AREA OF HT FALLS WERE PRESENT EAST
OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM MONTANA...SW INTO SO CALIFORNIA. HT
FALLS WERE GENERALLY 50 TO 100 GPM WITH 100 GPM FALLS AT ELKO NV. A
NICE MID LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA INTO ERN MT...THEN
ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN NEBRASKA...INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...EASTERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 50S WERE PRESENT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...READINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN KS WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE
IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BEFORE MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH...STALLING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NWRN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
EARLIER TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA
TONIGHT...WILL CONFINE FOG MENTION TO TONIGHTS PERIOD ONLY.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT IN THE WESTERN CWA
AND TRANSITION EAST SATURDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT INDICATION IN THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS OF
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TRAILING PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SAT EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE MID LEVEL FRONT
ARE INDICATING GOOD BANDING POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH. WITHIN THESE BANDS...SHORT
DURATION...MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SAT
EVENING. WITH WARM GROUND CONDITIONS...INITIAL SNOWFALL WILL
MELT...THEN FREEZE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW AND SLICK ROADWAYS...WINDY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS OUR
FIRST DECENT WINTRY SYSTEM OF THE SEASON...AND DUE TO ITS EXPECTED
IMPACTS ON TRAVEL...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON WHERE THE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WILL PLACE THE
ADVISORY...ROUGHLY WEST OF AN OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH LINE.

VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK
SUNDAY...AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOO WARM WITH READINGS MONDAY MORNING...AND CUT
THEM BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS

LONG RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE 50S. THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A
DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE ZONES ATTM...AS SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES
EXIST.

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LOCALLY PATCH FOG ALSO LIFTING. EXPECT THE
CLEARING SKIES TO HOLD LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECTED
KVTN TO SEE ONLY A BRIEF CLEARING...IF ANY AT ALL...THIS EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH SOME MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WARM AIR LIFTS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTED THE RIVER VALLEY TO HELP IN
TRAPPING SOME MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS REDEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CIGS FOR THE KLBF TAF. TOMORROW WILL SEE
THE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LATE MORNING EXPECTED ARRIVAL
FOR KVTN...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SHOULD LIFT THE
LOW IFR CIGS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ SATURDAY TO 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004>006-008-022>025-035-036-056-
057-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1138 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DENSE FOG BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR
SHOWS WINDS DECREASING BOTH AT THE SFC AND TO NEAR 850MB WHICH
SUPPORTS MOISTURE POOLING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES ALOFT PROMOTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MODELS SHOW A BELT OF CALM WINDS LIFTING
NORTH TOWARD THE SD BORDER TOWARD MORNING WHERE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR. STILL...THERE IS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE KS BORDER AS SHOWN
AT THE KMCK AND KLXN OBS...1/4SM IN FOG. SO ADDED COUNTIES TO THE
FOG ADVISORY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE FROM A PERSISTENT DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GETS DRAWN WESTWARD UP THE HIGH PLAINS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ SATURDAY TO 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004>006-008-022>025-035-036-056-
057-094.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
025>029-037-038-059-070-071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1125 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE FROM A PERSISTENT DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GETS DRAWN WESTWARD UP THE HIGH PLAINS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ SATURDAY TO 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004>006-008-022>025-035-036-056-
057-094.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ005>010.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

120 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE NEXT
GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES. DRIVEN ISENTROPICALLY AND WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN THE ILN
CWA HAS INCREASED JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUDING THUNDER IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD EXPANSION
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE FORCING
AND THE DIMINISHING MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS DO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL OHIO LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

A RATHER SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE TYPICAL COOL EASTERN SPOTS BEHAVING AS USUAL IN
LIGHT FLOW...BUT WINDS STAYING UP IN THE WEST HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS NEAR 50 DEGREES AND NEARLY STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP FORECAST WERE GENERALLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST AND UPWARD IN THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
WITH LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE WEST. WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR ILN/S FA ON
SATURDAY. IN GOOD WAA PATTERN EXPECT 8H TEMPS TO WARM TO +13 TO
+14 DEG C. A WARM DAY FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 15 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

AS THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THE SRLY GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AND WITH SRLY WINDS STAYING UP AT 6 TO 10 MPH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD. EXPECT SAT NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S WEST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST INTO THE MS VLY SUNDAY AFTN
AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT TO SEE AND INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH INCREASING SRLY GRADIENT EXPECT WINDS TO GUST
TO AROUND 25 MPH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONT TO BE 15 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPR 60S NW TO AROUND
70 SOUTHEAST.

NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A LTL SPREAD REGARDING PRECIPITATION TIMING.
ECMWF/SREF SOLNS ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SIDE...WITH THE GENERAL
TRENDS ALSO BEING A LTL FASTER. WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS FASTER SOLN
WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN FORCING/STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND A NARROW AXIS OF SFC
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEGREES...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER. MILD TEMPS TO CONT WITH SUN NIGHTS LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LACK OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND VIGOROUS WIND
FIELDS...SO WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT WILL EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHED BY A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS BACK INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY.

AFTER AN EARLY HIGH IN THE 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN A CHILLY AIRMASS. A SLIGHT REBOUND TO THE LOWER 50S MAY OCCUR BY
NEXT FRIDAY IN A REGIME OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA IN CNTL OHIO THRU 07Z BUT MOST OF THIS NOW PUSHING EAST OF
THE LCK/CMH TERMINALS. VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VSBYS AS WELL WITH ONLY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PRODUCING MEANINGFUL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SHOULD
SEE VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z OR SO BEFORE CLEARING BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER MID
LEVEL AIRMASS SHIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA. GUSTY SWLY BREEZES AFTER
15Z FOR ALL TAF SITES...UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES. AFT 23Z WINDS SHOULD
BACK A LITTLE AND LOSE THE GUSTS BUT STAY UP AROUND 10KTS WITH
AREAS OF CIRRUS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

640 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A BROKEN LING OF SHRA MOVING INTO CENTRAL
PA EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO
THE STATE. ALTHOUGH SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS MORNING...LATEST RAP AND NAM BOTH INDICATE THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RUN FROM CLEARFIELD CO ESE INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. WILL PAINT A BAND OF HIGHER /NR 50 PCT/ POPS ALONG
THIS AXIS BTWN 12Z-15Z.

SCT -SHRA SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE BORDER BY AFTN AS THE SURGE OF
HIGHER PWAT AIR HEADS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. BY LATE IN THE
DAY...SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL
MTNS...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST THRU EVENING.

COOLEST TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MTNS N OF IPT...WHERE THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE HOPE OF CLEARING TODAY AND READINGS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
SC PA...WHERE ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT AND SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OF THE STATE. WILL HOLD ONTO A PTCLDY FCST ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE. FURTHER SOUTH...MDL
RH FIELDS SUPPORT A MCLEAR FCST. MCLEAR SKIES AND A LGT WIND WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO THE M/U30S IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE ACROSS THE N MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS....WHERE A LGT BREEZE WILL KEEP ATMOS MIXED.
CAN/T RULE OUT A BIT OF FOG TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...DIRECTLY BENEATH SFC
RIDGE AXIS.

THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUNNY AND WARM CONDS SUNDAY...AS
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. BEST MIXING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...WHERE READINGS SHOULD
EASILY SOAR INTO THE M/60S. TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKIER EAST OF
THE MTNS...WHERE AMT OF MIXING UNDER SFC RIDGE IS IN DOUBT. HAVE
LEANED A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WITH MAXES IN THE L/M60S
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...GEFS 925MB TEMPS OF ARND 14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
HIGHS CLOSE TO 70F.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...INDICATING A WEAKENING UPPER
LVL TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT LIFTING THRU PA LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. LACK OF MDL SPREAD AND RESULTING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
FROPA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUE AM HAS ALLOWED US TO INCREASE THE CHC
OF SHRA MON NITE TO ARND 80 PCT. A BLEND OF GEFS AND OPER QPF
SUGGESTS WE WILL SEE CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL MON NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MOIST SSERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT COULD
YIELD SOME AM FOG ACROSS THE SE ZONES AND PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING
UPSLOPING STRATUS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE
QPF DATA...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP TO VERY LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

CENTRAL PA WILL GET A GLANCING SHOT OF SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
BEHIND CDFRONT ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. SFC PROGS FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SHOW A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING OUR WX
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ENSURING A STRETCH OF DRY WX
AFTER OUR MON NITE FROPA. LIGHT WINDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW NIGHTS TO GET SEASONABLY COOL. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS NR TO A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
HAVE BEGUN TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD A BIT WED-FRI BASED ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS...WHICH ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE
OF THE GEFS.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW COVER MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...EXCEPT
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION. CIGS MAINLY VFR...AND SHOULD STAY
THAT WAY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS /KBFD/ WHERE SOME
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EAST ALONG DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO FOCUS ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF PA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...AND ALL OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE IMMERSED IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR...BUT LOWERING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN SHOWERS.
TUE...MVFR IN SHRA THEN SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE.
TUE NIGHT-WED...AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN MTNS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

623 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW COVER MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...EXCEPT
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION. CIGS MAINLY VFR...AND SHOULD STAY
THAT WAY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS /KBFD/ WHERE SOME
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

603 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. CIGS APPEAR TO STILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...BUT SOME MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LAYERS MAY REDUCE CIGS
OVER NW MOUNTAINS INTO MVFR CATEGORY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE RAPIDLY EAST ALONG DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. WHILE MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL BE THE
RULE...LOWER CIGS ANTICIPATED TO HANG IN KBFD FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING NORTH.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...AND ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE IMMERSED IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

426 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY. THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACH
THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SUPPLY
GRADUALLY MILDER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A BATCH OF SHRA AND DWINDLING TSRA ALONG
WARM FRONT OVR OHIO AT 06Z. ALTHOUGH THESE SHWRS ARE WORKING INTO
A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...LATEST RAP AND NAM BOTH
INDICATE AT LEAST SCT SHRA WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ARRIVING OVR THE NW MTNS BTWN 06Z-08Z AND THE CENTRAL
MTNS BTWN 09Z-12Z. MIN TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY BEEN REACHED
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED AT 06Z. THE REST
OF THE AREA HAS A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVER
MOST OF THE REGION...LOWS WILL BE IN THE L/M30S...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE TOWARD DAWN.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
21Z SREF POPS ARE RATHER MINIMAL AND SPARSE...MUCH LIKE THE 00Z
NAM. THEREFORE SEE NO REASON TO BUMP POPS UP. WILL HOLD THE TOP-
END AT 70PCT DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL COVERAGE AND
THE VERY LIGHT QPF. GENERALLY A THEN OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURGE OF HIGHER PWAT AIR HEADS INTO NEW
YORK AND EASTERN PA. NEGATIVE LOW-MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT BEST /IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S/
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES SATURDAY...WHILE CLIMBING TO 3-8F ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE /MID 50S TO AROUND 60F/. THE GREATEST POSITIVE TEMP
DEPARTURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS WHERE CLEARING AND
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL HELP TO DEEPEN MIXING AND
TAP THE MILDER AIR ALOFT /APPROX 10C AT 850 MB ACROSS FAR WRN PENN
AT 21Z SATURDAY/. BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS WHERE THE CLOUDS DO NOT
LIFT OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON - MAINLY OVER THE NRN TIER ESP THE
NE.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE COLDEST VALLEYS...BUT
WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN SWEEPING
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SHARPENING UP AS TROFFING NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS TROFFING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT DOES SO. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A FRONT MOVING THROUGH PA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARM/DRY
WX SUN/MON...THEN A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS MON NITE ACROSS THE
WRN SECTIONS AND INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
TUESDAY. SOME AM FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE SUNDAY UNDER THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS SE PA. OTHERWISE...BONE DRY MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THESE FCST MAXES COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE...GIVEN ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 13C. ANOTHER VERY
MILD DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 8-14 DAY FCSTS FROM CPC AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FOR WEEK 2 -
THROUGH THANKSGIVING THAT IS - ARE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...AND ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE IMMERSED IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

134 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE COLDEST VALLEYS...BUT
WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 8-14 DAY FCSTS FROM CPC AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FOR WEEK 2 -
THROUGH THANKSGIVING THAT IS - ARE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTING
STRIKES...EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT...CLIPPING FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS MOISTURE...AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
FORMING TO THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO KBFD AREA BY 08Z...AND KJST AROUND 12Z.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST...WITH
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SOME FOG FORMATION AT KBFD
ALREADY AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS. AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PUSHES
EAST...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...AND ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE IMMERSED IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

850 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A LUFKIN...CONROE...COLUMBUS LINE
THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE. THINK THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE HOUSTON AREA PROBABLY AROUND 9-10PM CST AND MAYBE THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. MAINLY EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM SO TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO 40
PERCENT. RAP AND OTHER MESO MODELS SHOW A MORE ROBUST LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SO LEFT SOME
HIGHER POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SECONDARY COLD AIR PUSH HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH A LONGVIEW TO WACO
LINE AND CATCH UP WITH CURRENT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA. MIN TEMPS MON MORNING LOOK ON TRACK WITH UPPER 40S TO THE
NORTH AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. UPDATED FORECAST AND
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT SHV TO CLL TO HDO. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING WITH THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKING IT TO THE COAST BY 06Z. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL
LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND. THE LATEST RAP WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
NAM 12 SHOWS PRECIP INCREASING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850
MB FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-06Z OR ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 59...
BASICALLY THE EASTERN AND COASTAL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH BUT FEEL THE NAM AND RAP COULD BE ON TO SOMETHINGSO
ADDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AND HELD ON TO THE PRECIP LONGER
TONIGHT.CLEARING EXPECTED MOST SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...

CF IS THROUGH WACO AND TEMPLE AND HEADED FOR CLL 5-6 PM. RAP AND
LOCAL WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH IAH
AROUND 9 PM AND THEN NEAR THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE CAP HAS
HELD STRONG ACROSS SE TX TODAY...WITH THE ONLY TSTMS NORTH OF THE
AREA SO FAR AND WITHIN THE SVR TSTM WATCH AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
TSTMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE UNTIL AROUND 9
PM...WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE CAP MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR
PRECIP...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY.

PREFER THE GFS FOR THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER
REINFORCING COOL PUSH ON WED BEHIND A SHORT WAVE TROF. STILL DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS ON TUE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY IN THE LOW-
LEVELS. WE WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. MADE
SOME COOLER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR MIN TEMPS
THU...FRI...AND SAT. WILL SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUE THROUGH THU MORNINGS.

THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. 33

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 66 37 64 39 / 40 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 69 41 66 42 / 40 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 71 50 66 49 / 40 0 0 0 0

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...39

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

553 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT SHV TO CLL TO HDO. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING WITH THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKING IT TO THE COAST BY 06Z. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL
LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND. THE LATEST RAP WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
NAM 12 SHOWS PRECIP INCREASING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850
MB FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-06Z OR ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 59...
BASICALLY THE EASTERN AND COASTAL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH BUT FEEL THE NAM AND RAP COULD BE ON TO SOMETHINGSO
ADDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AND HELD ON TO THE PRECIP LONGER
TONIGHT.CLEARING EXPECTED MOST SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDS. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. 33

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 66 37 64 39 / 40 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 69 41 66 42 / 70 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 71 50 66 49 / 60 0 0 0 0

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

526 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
201 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTING IN TODAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING BUILDING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S....DEEP TROUGHING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S..
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH...A 120KT JET
STREAK WAS PRESENT NEAR 250MB OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS JET...VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...A STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE NOTED IN RAP
ANALYSES AND IN 925MB AND 850MB VWP AND PROFILER DATA...AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INDICATED FROM GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH IS AIDING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN...THOUGH
THE WESTERN EDGE HAS MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW DUE TO
DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR FLOWING IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
INDICATED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...READINGS ARE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FROM GREEN BAY TO MADISON. 12Z RAOBS REFLECTED THE
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOO...WITH 850MB READINGS OF 11C AT
GRB...3C AT MPX...-12C AT ABR AND -15C AT BIS. LAST ITEM OF NOTE
IS SKIES THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS AXIS
SITTING OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL COME THE COLDER
AIR WITH 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS FORECAST TO TANK BY 12Z TO -12 TO
-16C AND -8 TO -11C RESPECTIVELY. THESE ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. THUS...EXPECT A MUCH COLDER NIGHT TONIGHT AND DAY ON
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE OFF THE COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR A DAY AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER OF 14 AND 11
RESPECTIVELY...SET AFTER THE ARMISTICE DAY STORM OF 1940. WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ANTICIPATING
PRECIPITATION TO END WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. A LITTLE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THE WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA PUSHES IN. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SLATED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RAPID INCREASE OF CLOUDS. IN
ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE CLOUDS BEING
SITUATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACCUMULATION WILL BE NORTH OF I-90 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
EXISTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND PUSH
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES COMING OFF THE EAST PACIFIC. ACCOMPANYING THE FLATTENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS WELL AS WARMER
925-850MB AIR. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...850MB TEMPS SHOULD HAVE CLIMBED TO
0 TO -3C PER MODEL CONSENSUS...MUCH WARMER THAN THOSE SEEN ON
MONDAY. THEREFORE...AFTER WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CHILLY NIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE COLD START...WINDS DROPPING OFF TO CALM WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND SKIES CLEARING OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE MID 30S TO PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 40S. WARMEST READINGS WOULD
OCCUR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO THE WARMER AIR
COMING IN THERE FIRST. DROPPED LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES LEAN
CLOSELY TOWARDS THE MET GUIDANCE. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OCCURS
LATE ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THESE SHOULD
NOT HAMPER MIXING OR PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR PRESENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS PROG THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH...ANYWHERE FROM 0.3-0.5 INCHES...
HIGHEST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS ON
THE 280-290K SURFACES COMBINED WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FORECAST BEST JUXTAPOSITION IS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...THINKING ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL ALSO STAY JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT DERIVED QPF OUTPUT
SHOWS FROM THE 11.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND 11.15Z SREF MEAN.
THEREFORE...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED...AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPS CLEAR THEM OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH MORE CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT. STAYED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS. 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 0C ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
201 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUGGESTED BY THE 11.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...FEATURES A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM MOSTLY TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S.. THERE IS SOME AMPLIFICATION THAT TAKES PLACE TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH
FORMING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...HELPING TO KEEP A PACIFIC FLOW OF
AIR ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED.
FIRST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS TO CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. BEST
FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT HIGHLIGHT IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS HAVE KEPT SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DRY.

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
526 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO PUSHED EAST OF BOTH SITES
WITH JUST MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. A CLEAR SLOT HAD MOVED INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE 11.18Z NAM LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELD SHOWS THIS CLEAR SLOT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...ARRIVING AROUND 03Z AT KRST AND 06Z AT KLSE. THE BREAK
WILL LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE MORE STRATUS MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 105-025K FOOT THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER DO NOT FEEL THIS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
201 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1146 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

ROLLER COASTER OF A WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY DROP ON SUNDAY AND STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
BY MONDAY. TO ADD TO THE RIDE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY/TONIGHT WILL CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
LEAD WING OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH MORE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE 0-3KM MUCAPE IS UP AROUND 1000 J/KG. A FEW
STORMS HAVE PULSED UP AT TIMES TO PRODUCE SOME PENNY SIZE
HAIL AND EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CEILING ON HOW POTENT THE STORMS
WILL GET WITH INSTABILITY NOT GOING HIGHER THAN ITS CURRENT LEVEL.
AT 9Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. FURTHER ALOFT...BROAD RIDGING RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

AS THIS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TODAY...THE WARM FRONT
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
THIS SLUG OF HIGHER INSTABILITY COMING NORTH ALONG WITH IT. THE
10.08Z RAP SHOWS THIS AREA OF 1000 J/KG 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
GOING DUE NORTH AND STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THOUGH MUCAPE DOES APPROACH 500 J/KG IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BETTER INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH LESSER THUNDER ACTIVITY IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTH QUICKLY
THIS MORNING AND REACH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION FOR HOW WARM IT GETS TODAY IS WITH HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE CLEAR DOWN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 10.00Z HI-
RES ARW/NMM-E/W GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THE CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH TODAY
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION CLEARING OUT. 10.00Z NAM AND 10.07Z RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT UNDER THE
INVERSION WITH THE 10.00Z GFS BEING THE HIGHEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
RH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SUNNIER DAY WHICH IN TURN MEANS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE WARMER. 10.00Z 850MB
STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE ALL SHOWING ABOUT A +2 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM THE NORM WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. WITH THE 10.00Z GFS SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE LINGERING...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON GOING WITH LOW
70S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
WE ARE CLEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH THE DEEPENING
LOW TRACKING ACROSS MINNESOTA.

AFTER A DRY DAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH THE LOW
GOING THROUGH MINNESOTA. CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WESTERN RIM OF THE WEAKENING 850MB CAP IN THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE DRASTICALLY WEAKENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
AS WELL...THOUGH SHOULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...AM
THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY THOUGH A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL...PARTICULARLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS...PARTICULARLY INTO THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN 700-400MB
WHICH HAPPENS TO BE COLLOCATED WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WHICH PRODUCES A WIDESPREAD BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. BASED ON 10.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THIS
FRONTOGENETIC/MID LEVEL FORCING...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE THERMAL PROFILE...AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS ON SUNDAY POST-COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DUE TO THE
SHORT PERIOD OF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH
HOW LONG IT WILL LAST...HAVE JUST GONE WITH SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND THIS...COLD AIR SETTLES IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A POOL OF -14C 850MB TEMPERATURES
OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER AND THESE COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW
TO AMPLIFY IT A BIT. WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE STUCK IN
BETWEEN WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS GOING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1146 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

A WARM FRONT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT 17Z
TODAY...NOTED BY THE STRATUS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. THIS CLEARING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH AT MOST SOME VFR CUMULUS
DEVELOPING. PLAN ON WINDS TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND GUST UPWARDS
OF 25-30KT FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST AT KRST. WINDS ARE GOING TO
BE THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING WEST TO EAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KRST WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH...AND
DUE TO ITS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO ALLOW SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND
GUSTS OF 25-30KT TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE VALLEY
LOCATION OF KLSE SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND 15 KT. HOWEVER...WITH A WIND
MAXIMUM OF 50-55 KT PRESENT AROUND 2000 FT...CRITERIA IS REACHED
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES. NOTE...SHOULD TEMPERATURES
STAY WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE IS A CONCERN THAT MORE OF THAT
WIND MAXIMUM COULD MIX DOWN AND RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS...MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 12-16Z WINDOW ON SUNDAY...EARLIEST AT
KRST. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES...AN IFR STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR BR
LOOKS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY IT...ALONG WITH SOME RAIN. WINDS WILL
TURN WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. NOTE THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ENDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL SEEMS LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO TANK TO
IFR OR LOWER WITH THE SNOW.

.CLIMATE...SATURDAY
347 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL RUNNING
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TOWARD 70 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN.

SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

CHARLES CITY 71/1949
DECORAH 74/1949
OELWEIN 69/1930
AUSTIN 67/2010
ROCHESTER 68/1949
WINONA 78/1999
LA CROSSE 67/2010
NEILLSVILLE 73/1999
SPARTA 75/1999
PLATTEVILLE 74/1999
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN 82/1999

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
CLIMATE...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

547 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
547 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS BASES THIS
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 900 FT...WITH LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AT KRST. BR WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 4 SM RANGE.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 14 TO 18
KTS...AND GUSTS AROUND 27 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KRST. A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD
BASES RISING TO AROUND 4 KFT AND BECOMING SCATTERED. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOOK OR
SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE BY 3 Z INTO THE 15 TO 19 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 28 KTS EXPECTED AT KRST. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LLWS CONCERNS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 55 KTS AT 2000FT. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT THE TAF
SITES STARTING AT 03Z. OTHERWISE PLAN ON MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO LOWER INTO THE 2 TO 3 KFT
RANGE IN THE 10 TO 11Z TIMEFRAME.

.CLIMATE...SATURDAY
347 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

CHARLES CITY 71/1949
DECORAH 74/1949
OELWEIN 69/1930
AUSTIN 67/2010
ROCHESTER 68/1949
WINONA 78/1999
LA CROSSE 67/2010
NEILLSVILLE 73/1999
SPARTA 75/1999
PLATTEVILLE 74/1999
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN 82/1999

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
CLIMATE...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1126 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE COOL AIR
IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AT BOTH SITES BY 09Z WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT. GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST BETWEEN
11Z-16Z SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER END MVFR
CATEGORY. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE SITES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME CLEARING OCCURRING. DID
SCATTER THE CEILINGS OUT AT 19Z. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE
RATHER STRONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. DID
KEEP THE VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH 06Z AS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
COME THROUGH AFTER 06Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER.

.CLIMATE...SATURDAY
347 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

CHARLES CITY 71/1949
DECORAH 74/1949
OELWEIN 69/1930
AUSTIN 67/2010
ROCHESTER 68/1949
WINONA 78/1999
LA CROSSE 67/2010
NEILLSVILLE 73/1999
SPARTA 75/1999
PLATTEVILLE 74/1999
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN 82/1999

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
347 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING
CLIMATE...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1056 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...FOG AND LOW CEILINGS OVER NEBRASKA
TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG. FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED. AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREDOMINATELY IFR TO MVFR CIGS SATURDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FOG OVER THE NEBRASKA HANDLE
TONIGHT. STATUS DECK CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADVANCING WESTWARD. HRRR MODEL
SHOWING LOW CIGS PUSHING TO THE WYOMING BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE SAME UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW. COULD POSSIBLE SEE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG. LOW CIGS AND FOG
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE FOG.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
SHOULD TEMPERATURES DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...ROAD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TONIGHT SUCH THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS NOT A CONCERN.

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...UPDATE...
ADDED FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO NEBRASKA TAF SITE FOR TONIGHT INTO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND CENTRAL
NE IS MOVING WESTWARD AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS
STATUS DECK WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.

SNOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED. AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREDOMINATELY IFR TO MVFR CIGS SATURDAY BUT
SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND DEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
TO AN ALLIANCE TO CHEYENNE LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...PRODUCING MVFR AND
IFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT...VFR EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE
LINE. SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LINCOLN NEBRASKA
BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED ACROSS TAF SITES.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
KNOTS ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING
IFR AND MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. RUBIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH OVER
PARTS OF CARBON COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THAT PART OF THE CWA UNTIL 01Z.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE FEATURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BY 00Z MONDAY
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD CLOSED LOW. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...A
300 MB JET WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY...
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WERE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
UTAH AND FAR WESTERN WYOMING DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THAT 300 MB
JET. ALSO MOVING OVER THE CWA WILL BE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE CWA SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PASSES. COLD SURFACE AIR WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RESULT WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WELL AS SNOW. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. GARCIA METHOD SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THAT TIME. THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MORE WESTERLY WIND ALOFT TO REDUCE
THE SNOWFALL RATES. THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PARTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WEST PART OF THE CWA FROM
OROGRAPHICS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...THUS DRY IN OUR COUNTIES DUE
TO DOWNWARD MOTION AND DECREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS...THUS PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
CARBON...ALBANY AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AND OVER WESTERN LARAMIE AND
PLATTE COUNTIES.

MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NORTHWEST INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP...AND THUS PRODUCING A WARMING TREND WITH MAXIMA IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S...DESPITE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY.

TUESDAY...ZONAL...WEST TO EAST FLOW...ALOFT ENSUES...AIDING EVEN
MORE IN A WARMING TREND DUE TO BETTER KATABATIC WARMING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL AS USUAL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON OPACITY OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY IS KEY FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR
5670 METERS...AND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND. IT APPEARS THE MORE OPAQUE MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE DIRTY
RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND NORTHWEST WYOMING...WITH SOME OF THESE
MORE OPAQUE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

THURSDAY...NEXT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM UTAH AND COLORADO...SPREADING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA...THUS THE SUBSIDENT SECTOR ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WILL KEEP
IT DRY...ASIDE FROM ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
THROUGH 01Z...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AT RAWLINS. THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING NEAR THERMOPOLIS...PRODUCING
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD AND STRETCHING FROM
CHADRON TO FORT COLLINS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

AFTER 04Z...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AT RAWLINS
PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 15Z...WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SCATTERED
SHOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR AT RAWLINS TAF WITH VFR AT OTHER
SITES.

FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST PART OF
THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET. THEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THAT
TIME. DRIER...WARMER AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR WYZ112-WYZ114.
NE...NONE.

UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...LIEBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1035 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS TAKEN HOLD AT KEEO AND KCAG AND
HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUMS ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND APPEARS THAT SNOW HAS ENDED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
SOME TERRAIN HUGGING STRATOCUMULUS STILL LINGER TOWARD THE NRN DIVIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

LOCAL PATCHY FOG ALONG RIVERS OR VALLEY BOTTOMS WILL OCCUR WITH
LOCAL VIS BLO 3SM CIGS AOB BKN010...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KEGE. AFTER 17Z...ANY FOG OR LOW LYING STRATUS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

405 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. FROM WEST TO EAST
THE PATTERN CONSISTS OF RIDGING MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY SHARP/AMPLIFIED TROUGHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT...AND FINALLY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD/WESTERN ATLANTIC. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND ITS INFLUENCE IS
WELL SAMPLED IN THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION JUST ABOVE 800MB.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE FL PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS
PROVIDING A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE ARE TRAVERSING THE STATE
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER COMPARED
TO PAST MORNINGS WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL HOLDING IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY/TONIGHT...STACKED RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND THE APPROACH OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WEAKENS THE SURFACE RIDGE. OVERALL TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE
FAIR AND WARM UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. DO HAVE A 15-20% CHANCE
FOR A FEW ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE THE GRIDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THESE ISOLATED CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE FOCUS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. IMPACT AND DURATIONS OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
SMALL. DECENT DIURNAL MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS OF 12-13C SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT MOST LOCATIONS REACHING 80-83 BY MID AFTERNOON.

A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE TO
SUPPORT A GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING AT OR ABOVE 60
DEGREES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE WHERE READINGS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PIVOT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PENINSULA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AND WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80 NORTH AND INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VARIOUS DEGREES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS IS BROADER IN
SCOPE...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A MORE POTENT BUT CONCENTRATED
SHORTWAVE. AT LEAST FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...EITHER
SOLUTION WOULD HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT STAYING TO OUR WEST...
AND HENCE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OUT OF THE FORECAST REASONING. DO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHALLOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS...BUT
THESE ARE ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE RENEWED SPEED CONVERGENCE
FOCUS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND WILL NOT BE OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE
EASTERN US. 00Z GFS...00Z CMC...AND 00Z ECMWF DECENTLY CONSISTENT
WITH 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. IMPACTS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH...AND HOW QUICKLY NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO HELP
MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WHILE SUNNY SKIES TO ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 70S.

MODELS BEING TO DISAGREE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA THAT SWINGS OFF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AT THE VERY END OR JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHILE THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN AT LEAST PRECIPITATION FOR
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...CONFIDENCE IN GUIDANCE THIS FAR
OUT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. FOR
COMPARISON...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHOUT THE
DEEP LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS THE SYSTEMS IMPACTS
NORTH OF THE AREA...MORE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. IF
ECMWF SOLUTION STAYS CONSISTENT HEADING FORWARD...NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE ONE TO WATCH FOR MUCH OF FLORIDA...AND LIKELY THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND CONTINUED EASTERLY
FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AT FMY...RSW...AND PGD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EASTERLY AT
ALL SITES.

.MARINE...
LOCAL GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
REGION FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD RESULTING IN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 65 82 64 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 83 65 84 63 / 20 10 10 10
GIF 83 62 84 61 / 20 10 10 10
SRQ 82 63 83 64 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 81 58 83 59 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 80 66 81 66 / 20 10 10 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON/GARCIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

405 AM EST MON NOV 11 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON/GARCIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1127 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 917 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

HAVE ADJUSTED ZONES TO REFLECT PHASE CHANGE ON EDGE OF PRECIP AREA
AND TO SPEED UP CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

CLEARING AREA NOW APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SHOULD PUSH
EAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY GIVEN THE STRONG DVA EVIDENT IN 18Z GFS.

BARKER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1127 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SOME SITES
MIGHT SEE MVFR BUT BELIEVE CIGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...STARTING AROUND 10Z AT PIA...AND FINALLY 14Z AT
CMI. THEN CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS
TOMORROW EVENING.

AUTEN
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

BAK

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1121 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE 12/06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...12/06Z
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN STRATUS MOVING ACROSS ABOUT NORTH HALF OF FORECAST
SITES WITH BKN-OVC035-040 ARRIVING 09-13Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY AFT 15Z MON
WITH MIXING INCREASING THROUGH 21Z WHEN GUSTS WILL BE ABOVE 25KTS
MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT
REGION NEAR 00Z WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AFT 23Z UNDER 12KTS. HIGH
BUILDING INTO REGION AFT 00Z...WITH LIGHT TO VRBL WINDS OVER THE
AREA GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH. /REV

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1219 AM MST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM MST MON NOV 12 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY IN EASTERN COUNTIES. RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
HERALDING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO AROUND 14 KTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SMALL THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS TONIGHT
IN AREAS THAT RAPIDLY COOLED OFF AS DOWNSTREAM DEWPOINTS HIGHER
THAN CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATCHINESS OF COLDER TEMPS AND SFC PATTERN...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO FORECAST ATTM.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1031 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SUN NOV 11 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

459 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE PLAINS BTWN RDGS OVER THE E AND THE W. COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO SFC LO MOVING THRU ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND UNDER
SSW FLOW ALF HAS PUSHED TO JUST E OF A P53-ESC LINE AS OF 06Z. BULK
OF PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA ALONG THIS BNDRY IS OVER THE E HALF OF THE
CWA FORCED BY VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX OVER NW
ONTARIO AND SHARP LO-MID LVL FGEN LIFTING OF VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
/00Z PWAT NEAR 1 INCH UP TO 250 PCT OF NORMAL/ JUST E OF THE FNT.
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR HAS CAUSED A MIX WITH SN OVER THE W HALF...BUT
DRYING ALF WITH 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AOA H75-8 AND
SLGT ACYC SFC FLOW BEHIND THE FNT HAS KEPT THE WINTRY PCPN ON THE
LGT SIDE. FARTHER TO THE W UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS...A VERY
PRONOUNCED H85-7 THERMAL TROF IS PRESENT WITHIN SHARP CYC FLOW. 00Z
H85/7 TEMPS ARE AS LO AS -17C/-20C IN THE NRN PLAINS...AND 00Z
BISMARCK RAOB SHOWS DEEP MSTR SFC THRU H6.

FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO TIMING THE EXIT OF
LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER THE E HALF AND THE DETAILS OF THE TRANSITION
TO AN LES REGIME TDAY THRU TNGT AS COLDER/MOISTER AIR IN THE NRN
PLAINS SWINGS THRU THE UPR LKS UNDER PASSING UPR TROF.

TDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF...EXPECT ONGOING
SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN OVER THE FAR E AT ERY TO END ARND 12Z. ARRIVAL
OF WEAK SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER THE DRY AXIS AT H7 SHOULD BRING A
MAINLY DRY PERIOD TO MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
THE DEEPER MSTR/COLDER H85 AIR OVER THE W LATE THIS MRNG WL BRING
INCRSG LES CHCS TO THAT AREA. WITH THE LLVL FLOW BACKING MORE WSW
WITH ARPCH OF SFC TROF...EXPECT A DOMINANT BAND TO FORM OVER THE
LENGTH OF WRN LK SUP WITH H85 TEMPS SINKING TO -13C TO -15C BY 12Z
AND LINGERING THRU THE DAY. IN FACT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE DLH RADAR
AT 0630Z SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE START OF THIS LES BAND JUST N
OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. INITIALLY...THE BULK OF THE LOCAL HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THE BAND WL REMAIN JUST OFF THE W SHORE OF THE
KEWEENAW WITH SLGT LAND BREEZE COMPONENT/MORE SW FLOW OVER LAND
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAINTAINING THE SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC THERE AS THE LARGER SCALE FLOW BACKS A BIT AHEAD OF
APRCHG LO PRES TROF. BUT AS THE H925 WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OVER WRN LK
SUP WITH ARRIVAL OF THE TROF THIS AFTN...EXPECT THE HEAVIER BAND TO
COME ASHORE OVER THE W FM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO THE KEWEENAW.
FAVORABLE OMEGA PROFILE SOLIDLY IN THE DGZ IN CONCERT WITH DEEP MSTR
TO AT LEAST H7/SHARP LLVL CNVGC WL ENHANCE SN RATES WITHIN THIS BAND
AND JUSTIFIES CURRENT ADVY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE W SIDE OF THE
KEWEENAW WHERE THE BAND RESIDENCE TIME MIGHT BE A BIT LONGER.

TNGT...WITH PASSAGE OF LO PRES TROF/VEERING H925 WINDS TO WNW...
EXPECT THE LES OVER THE W TO EVOLVE INTO A MULTIPLE BAND EVENT.
GRADUAL WARMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF AS WELL AS
FCST SHARPENING/LOWERING INVRN THAT NEARLY DRIES OUT THE DGZ BY 09Z
AS WELL AS DVLPG MORE ACYC FLOW OVER THE W WL CAUSE THE INTENSITY OF
THE LES TO DIMINISH THERE DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON TUE. BUT OVER
THE E...THE VEERING WIND WL ALLOW LES BANDS TO COME ASHORE AT LEAST
N OF M-28. OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-
SCT -SHSN...WITH JUST QUITE A BIT OF SC IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW OF
RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED COLDER AIRMASS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE START OF THE LES OVER
THE W INDICATES THE START OF THE GOING ADVY FOR THE THE KEWEENAW AT
12Z IS A BIT TOO EARLY...SO OPTED TO PUSH BACK THE BEGINNING OF THE
ADVY UNTIL 17Z. ALSO DECIDED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON COUNTY IN THE
HEADLINE AS THE TOWN OF ONTONAGON WL BE IMPACTED BY THE DOMINANT
BAND. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS ALSO INDICATE ENHANCED LAND BREEZE
CNVGC TNGT IN THAT COUNTY WITH MORE SW FLOW OF THE COLDER SFC AIR
NEAR THE WI BORDER AND WNW LK MODIFIED WIND JUST TO THE N. SINCE ANY
SHSN WL NOT BEGIN UNTIL LATER IN THE 2ND PERIOD FOR THE E...WL NOT
POST ANY HEADLINE FOR THAT AREA ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE PERIOD MOVES INTO
EASTERN CANADA AND DE-AMPLIFIES BY WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS LEFT IN ITS
WAKE IS A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET
STREAMS AND RESULTING STORM TRACKS STAY AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HAVE LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INITIALLY ON
TUESDAY. SHORT WINDOW OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LES THROUGH
MID-LATE MORNING WITH INVERSION HEIGHT STAYING AROUND 5-6KFT AND
TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION AOB -10C. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS OF SNOW TO AFFECT
EASTERN CWA...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY
NORTH OF M-28. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOWERING INVERSION
AND INCREASING ANTI-CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONSIDERABLY
DIMINISH THE LK EFFECT BY EARLY-MID AFTN. AFT 18Z...925MB WINDS
BACK SOUTH OF WEST...WHICH WILL KICK WHATEVER LES REMAINS OFFSHORE
AND ACROSS CANADIAN SHORELINE NORTH OF WHITEFISH BAY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING NAM...GEM-REGIONAL AND NCEP WRF-ARW
SUPPORT GENERAL THEME FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LK EFFECT. EVEN WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LIMITED MIXING AND
COLD NEAR SFC AIR WILL LIMIT RISE TO MAX TEMPS. DESPITE SUNSHINE
BY AFTN...HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW-MID 30S.

GFS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LGT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AS H85-H7
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. GEM-NHEM AND SREF ALSO INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF MOISTURE EXTENDING AS LOW AS H7 BUT LIFT
WITHIN THE MOISTURE IS WEAK AND IT REMAINS QUITE DRY BLO H7.
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EAST AS SOUTH FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO LGT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. SREF PROBABILITIES POINTED TO GREATEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE OVER FAR EAST IN THE AFTN. WENT THAT WAY FOR FCST.

MID CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS
PARADE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW. EVEN
SHALLOW MIXING ON THURSDAY WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
40S. WEAK SFC TROUGH TRIES TO MAKE IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER
THURSDAY...BUT ONCE IT DOES PUSH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT
IT ONLY ENDS UP BEING A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WITH NO PRECIPITATION.
SINCE H85 TEMPS DO LOWER DOWN TO -4C OVR LK SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING INCREASED SKY COVER SOME OVER CONSENSUS WITH SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LK EFFECT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP BY FRIDAY AFTN AS ONCE AGAIN WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
RIDGE AXIS STAYS TO EAST OF UPR LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SO
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IN STORE
ONCE EARLY WEEK TROUGHING/WINTRY WEATHER DEPARTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

LOOK FOR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD AT
KIWD. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AS AN INTENSE LES BAND MOVES
ONSHORE REDUCING VBSYS TO AROUND 1/2MI IN SHSN AND BLSN. AS THE BAND
SAGS SE OF THE AREA VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR BY LATE EVENING. AT
KSAW EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
INCREASING DRYING AND DIURNAL HEATING. WRLY WINDS WILL GUST AOA 25
KTS AT KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES IN THE PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING INTO
HUDSON BAY AND AS VERY COLD AIRMASS SPILLS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS WILL
BE THRU THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE W SHORE OF UPR MI...WHERE LOCAL
TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL TEND TO ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...AND OVER THE E
HALF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF HI
PRES FROM THE PLAINS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH BLO 25 KTS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO
25-30 KTS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD ONTARIO
AND HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO QUEBEC. STRONGEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS
DIMINISH BLO 25 KTS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER GREAT LAKES. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC/JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1237 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING IN THE LONG TERM WITH
MAIN FOCUS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH LES.

WITH FAIRLY BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER AFTER CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
TUE...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SO AS TO PLACE MOST TIME/EMPHASIS ON SHORTER TERM IMPACTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1141 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Tonight through Tuesday):

Medium Range (Wednesday through Sunday):

Laflin

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over
the next 24 hours as cold and dry Canadian air sweeps through the
region. Otherwise, watch for light winds overnight to become gusty by
the afternoon hours Monday, only to go light and variable after sunset
Monday.

Cutter

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

302 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AT 08Z AND CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD PUSH. A BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXISTED JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER REMAINS PRETTY LOW, WITH POSTIVE CAPES ONLY IN THE 100-200
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, CAN`T RULE OUT A
ROGUE FLASH OF LIGHTNING FROM ONE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
SO, WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

EARLIER RUC MODEL RUNS SHOWED A BIT SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A
SPRINGFIELD TO WAYNESBORO LINE AT 12Z, JUST EAST OF LEBANON AND
PULASKI AT 15Z, NEAR CSV AT 18Z, AND OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY 21Z.
WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT ELEVATED IN AREAS WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING
THIS MORNING SINCE THE EDGE OF THE REALLY CHILLY AIR, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, IS LOCATED ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE POST-
FRONTAL RAIN AREA.

AFTER FRONT PASSES TODAY, DRIER AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE MID
STATE FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING MOSTLY
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY, ENHANCING WEAK TROFFINESS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATE AND TEMPORARY RETROGRESSION OF
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, DON`T EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CU/STRATOCU OVER MAINLY THE EASTER HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO LIMIT THE AVAILABLE
SUNSHINE A BIT AND KEEP THINGS CHILLY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, AND IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INVOF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...AND MAY ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR SOME COUNTIES ON OR AROUND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLING EAST OF OUR
AREA BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUSHING ANY SHOWERS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 54 30 52 32 / 100 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 49 28 50 30 / 80 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 58 28 49 29 / 100 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 30 53 32 / 100 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 57 29 54 31 / 90 0 0 0
WAVERLY 50 29 52 30 / 80 0 0 0

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1119 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SHRA
HAVE BEEN SPOTTY AT BEST AND SHOULD END AROUND 09Z AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ONCE THE 850 FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A LUFKIN...CONROE...COLUMBUS LINE
THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE. THINK THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE HOUSTON AREA PROBABLY AROUND 9-10PM CST AND MAYBE THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. MAINLY EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM SO TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO 40
PERCENT. RAP AND OTHER MESO MODELS SHOW A MORE ROBUST LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SO LEFT SOME
HIGHER POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SECONDARY COLD AIR PUSH HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH A LONGVIEW TO WACO
LINE AND CATCH UP WITH CURRENT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA. MIN TEMPS MON MORNING LOOK ON TRACK WITH UPPER 40S TO THE
NORTH AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. UPDATED FORECAST AND
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. 33

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 66 37 64 39 / 40 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 69 41 66 42 / 40 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 71 50 66 49 / 40 0 0 0 0

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

301 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
301 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER THROUGH WESTERN
MINNESOTA EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER
RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN SHORES OF JAMES BAY
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
NOTED ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HEADED EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THINKING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FLURRIES THIS MORNING WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE OVER THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM AROUND 900MB THROUGH 700MB.
WEAK LIFT WORKING ON THIS NEARLY SATURATED LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
FLURRIES. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN AND THE VORTICITY
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST PART
OF THE VORTICITY MAX LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCREASED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LOW
LEVEL CAPE...AROUND 70 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO ALONG AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS SO HAVE
ADDED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST IOWA. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1/2
INCH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29.

SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PLAN
ON DECREASING CLOUD OVERNIGHT. A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORM FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN ZONAL AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FLATTENS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND PUSH EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 280 THROUGH 290K SURFACES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THIS LAYER ARE RUNNING AROUND
100 TO 120 MB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO THINKING IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WITH FAIRLY DEEP SATURATION ALOFT DESPITE THE RATHER DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER BELOW 800 MB. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PLAN
ON SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND
40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
301 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

12.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THURSDAY
SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AGAIN...MODELS STRUGGLE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN 250 MB JET IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN JET OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TO JETS
WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PLAN
ON HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1127 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE TAF SITES. CLEAR SKIES WERE AS CLOSE
AS FAR NORTHEAST IOWA WITH THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST.
12.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING AND LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS
INDICATE THIS CLEARING MAY APPROACH THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MORE
STRATUS UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DID NOT ADD TO THE TAFS. WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT GREATER THAN 12 KNOTS...AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MODELS
CONSISTENT IN SCATTERING THE CLOUDS OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
301 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RABERDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

947 AM MST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK. SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME OF THE GUSTY WINDS
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT
THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE
CLOUD ALONG FOOTHILLS AFTER 02Z.

.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOKING REASONABLE...WILL CONTINUE
FOR UPCOMING ISSUANCE. LATEST HRRR AND RUC STILL INDICATING
SOUTHEAST WINDS BY 18Z. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE AFTER 02Z
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE
CLOUD DEVELOPING ALONG FOOTHILLS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM MST MON NOV 12 2012/

SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT
TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT. QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL BE
SUBSIDENT TODAY...GRADUALLY CHANGING SIGN AFTER 00Z AND
INTENSIFYING AS THE CORE OF THE ASCENT APPROACHES THE KANSAS
BORDER BY 12Z. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.
FURTHERMORE...SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD AROUND TO CONTEND WITH AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS. TYPICAL-FOR-THIS-FLOW-PATTERN ERRATIC WINDS
HAVE BEEN BUFFETING PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE USUALLY WINDIER
SPOTS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.

LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING WITH FAIRLY DECENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND IT. THEN THEY HAVE UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DOWNWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS BENIGN. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY GET NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORMAL WIND PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON WEDNESDAY. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS
SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY...MORE SO ON THE NAM. THE
GFS HAS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS WAY DRIER DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE
QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND A TAD OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN
MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THEN UPPER RIDGING IS
PROGGED ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
ON THE ECMWF. BOTH HAVE ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE ON THE
ECMWF. EITHER WAY...THE UPPER TROUGHING PROGGED FOR THE WEEKEND ON
THE LAST TWO 00Z MODELS RUNS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SEEMED TO NEARLY DISAPPEAR. WITH JUST SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE GFS...AND WAY LESS ON THE ECMWF AM RELUCTANT TO GO
WITH ANY POPS FOR THE 4 DAYS...BUT WILL LEAVE SOME MINOR VALUES IN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL.

AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AT THE
AREA TERMINALS. WINDS AT KBJC WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING PRIOR TO SETTLING DOWN. KDEN AND KAPA WILL
HAVE LESS WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KDEN POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING
A FEW PUFFS OF 20 KNOT WESTERLIES THIS MORNING.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1236 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN NE-E WIND FLOW. CURRENT AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KAPF, WITH EAST COAST TERMINALS
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH 00Z. NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SHOULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER 00Z WITH VCSH INDICATED AT SE FLORIDA METRO TERMINALS ALONG
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME DRIER AIR MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED NE
WIND FLOW. /MOLLEDA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH
THE PATCHES OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY BROWARD COUNTY EARLIER
THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY DISSIPATING...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THIS IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ENTERED THE REGION
WITH THE PWAT CURRENTLY NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND THE PROMINENT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION FROM PREVIOUS DAYS IS SLOWLY ERODING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALSO INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

UPDATE...
WINDS OF 20-25 KTS OVER ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WARRANT
EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY MORE EXTENSIVE AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE PUSHING ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST CURRENTLY. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND MOVED UP VCSH MENTION TO THE CURRENT TIME AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY...HOWEVER PREVAILED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING EASTERLY LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TO FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEHIND 700 MB INVERSION...A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LAST EVENING AND
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SIMILAR PATTERN ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AS COLD FRONT/LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH AS ATLANTIC RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. THUS...EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD WEAKENING OF INVERSION...WHICH COULD LEAD TO GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION...BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TODAY MARINE ZONES AND ATLANTIC
BEACHES. EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH AND CREATE A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DISSIPATES AS PARENT TROF LIFTS INTO
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ONLY IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
ENFORCEMENT OF DRIER AIR...LEADING TO LOWER SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDS WILL PERSIST AS WILL SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMA WILL BE IN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH MINIMA
IN MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
IT IS NOT LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL ONLY ACT TO
INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SEVERAL MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE
TROF CLOSING OFF ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG DECAYING BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT. OVERALL...LOW POPS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR MID-NOVEMBER...THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
WITH DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...EAST WINDS OF NEAR 20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WATERS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY UNTIL 18Z. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

FIRE WEATHER...
EAST WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST TODAY...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...PRECLUDING ANY ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 82 69 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 73 82 71 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 82 71 82 70 / 20 20 20 10
NAPLES 84 66 84 64 / 20 20 20 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...59/MOLLEDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1006 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

UPDATE...
WINDS OF 20-25 KTS OVER ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WARRANT
EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

FIRE WEATHER...
EAST WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST TODAY...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...PRECLUDING ANY ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 82 69 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 73 82 71 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 82 71 82 70 / 20 20 20 10
NAPLES 84 66 84 64 / 20 20 20 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MIAMI FL

651 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...
WINDS OF 20-25 KTS OVER ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WARRANT
EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

FIRE WEATHER...
EAST WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST TODAY...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...PRECLUDING ANY ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 82 69 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 73 82 71 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 82 71 82 70 / 20 20 20 10
NAPLES 84 66 84 64 / 20 20 20 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...23/SK
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

638 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY MORE EXTENSIVE AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE PUSHING ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST CURRENTLY. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND MOVED UP VCSH MENTION TO THE CURRENT TIME AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR LEVELS BRIEFLY...HOWEVER PREVAILED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012/

FIRE WEATHER...
EAST WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST TODAY...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...PRECLUDING ANY ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 82 69 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 73 82 71 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 82 71 82 70 / 20 20 20 10
NAPLES 84 66 84 64 / 20 20 20 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...23/SK
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

133 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.Forecast Update...
Updated at 133 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Precipitation and cloud shield quickly continue to push eastward.
Precipitation has ended in areas along and west of I-65. Had
several reports of sleet mixing in with the back edge of the rain
and this correlates fairly well to the dual pol data and to the
ACARS soundings out of KSDF. The rain shield will continue to push
east and some sleet will continue to mix in at times along the back
edge of the precipitation shield. Given the depth of the warm layer
near the surface, it appears that snow will not mix in and sleet
will be most likely. Thus, have removed the mention of snow from
the forecasts. Precipitation still looks to end across the forecast
district by 5 PM EST.

Temperatures continue to fall in the eastern sections with many
locations now into the upper 30s and lower 40s. However, out where
clearing has taken place, we are seeing temperatures warming back up
due to the insolation. So while temperatures in the central
sections will likely fall into the upper 30s early this afternoon, a
small rise back into the lower 40s looks very likely in areas along
and west of I-65. East of I-65, clouds will likely hamper
temperatures so, upper 30s to the lower 40s still look good. The
HRRR runs have captured this as well, so we have trended the updated
forecast close to its output.

Update issued at 1135 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Surface cold front has now crossed the I-75 corridor and is heading
into the coalfields of eastern Kentucky. Post frontal showers
continue across much of the forecast area. Fairly sharp
precipitation cutoff is occurring to our west and is generally along
a line from near Brandenburg to Bowling Green. With the
precipitation shield moving east, it should clear the I-65 corridor
by 1 PM EST and then exit the I-75 corridor between 4-5 PM EST.
Colder air continues to pour in on the back side of the system and
there is a small chance that we could see a little snow mix in with
the rain as the precipitation departs the region. So, have gone
ahead and continued the slight chance of light snow mixing in from
time to time in the latest forecast.

Temperatures are falling rapidly across the eastern sections of the
forecast area, but the temperature drop across the far west has
stabilized a bit in the last couple of hours. In the east, we`ll
see temperatures in the low 50s fall into the lower 40s through the
afternoon hours. In the central sections, temperatures are likely
to cool a little more with readings generally in the upper 30s to
the lower 40s. Upper 30s are common out to our west, but with
clearing skies working in, we may see a small/brief spike in
temperatures later this afternoon. Latest runs of the HRRR seem to
have a good handle and we`ve incorporated the latest runs into the
updated forecast.

Update Issued at 832 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Combination of surface observations and WSR-88D velocity data
indicate that the surface cold front currently stretches from Henry
County southwestward to Monroe County...or just east of the I-65
corridor. So far, we`ve seen temperatures drop about 7 degrees here
at the office in the last 2 hours and it will continue to drop
throughout the morning hours. Widespread showers are occurring
ahead and behind the front, and this rain is expected to continue
throughout the morning hours west of I-65 and then into the
afternoon hours for areas east of I-65.

Temperatures out in the far western CWA have dropped to around 40
degrees. Dual-pol radar data does show the melting layer coming
down quickly aloft and we`re starting to see lowering correlation
coefficients suggesting a change over to snow aloft. However, with
the warm layer near the surface, it is highly doubtful that snow is
reaching the surface at this time. However, with increasing time,
this low-level warm layer will decrease in depth and some light snow
may mix in as the precipitation comes to an end. Current
indications suggest that the best chances of this occurring would be
to our north/northwest where the deeper cold air resides. Depending
on how quick this warm layer scours out, have gone ahead and added
some light snow chances into the forecast for this morning and
afternoon. Precipitation is likely to remain mostly rain, but some
snow flakes mixing in from time to time will be possible...even into
the I-75 corridor later this afternoon. With surface temperatures
expected to remain above freezing, no accumulations are expected.

As mentioned earlier, temperatures are falling rapidly behind the
front. Latest HRRR guidance seems to have the best handle on this,
so we have trended the forecast close to it. We expect temperatures
to fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s later this morning in areas
west of I-65...and this afternoon in areas east of I-65.
Precipitation will also taper off from west to east and we expect
our forecast area to be dry by around 700 PM EST this evening.

.Short Term (Today - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

...A Breezy, Rainy Morning with Temperatures Falling into the 40s
Throughout the Day...

At 730Z, a good area of rain was overspreading the area from west to
east ahead of an approaching cold front. The area of rain stretched
back as far as central Illinois with the front position close to the
center of this wide area of rain from north central Indiana to
western Kentucky to central Mississippi. The front was identifiable
at times by a thicker band of reflectivity in radar data. All of
these features will continue to move eastward over our area through
the morning hours. Areas east of I-65 that have not seen rain yet
will likely see the beginning of the rain shield around or before
sunrise. Winds remain gusty this morning between 20-30 mph and will
continue through late morning or early afternoon. Higher gusts
around 30 mph were observed right along the front which will pass
through our region around sunrise and shortly after. Was able to
remove thunder wording from the forecast as the closest lightning
strikes were well to our south over northern Mississippi. Light to
moderate rains are expected to continue through the morning hours
and then taper off from west to east this afternoon. Total QPF
amounts will likely range from 0.5 to 1.25 inches. A few mesonet
locations over western KY have already tallied 0.9 inches of
rainfall with 1-3 more hours of steady rains still to come.

Besides the wind and the rain for the first half of the day,
temperatures will steadily fall into the 40s throughout the day.
Most locations will likely see high temperatures around sunrise this
morning in the mid 40s to upper 50s with declining temperatures
expected behind the cold front for the rest of the day. By early
afternoon, most all locations over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky will see temperatures in the low to mid 40s.

By this evening, all precipitation should be well east of our area.
Sfc high pressure and clearing skies will quickly work into the
area. With very light or calm winds expected tonight and a very
chilly airmass in place, lowered low temps a good amount. Think
that we should bottom out in the mid to upper 20s for lows with our
typical cool spots possibly dipping into the low 20s.

Tuesday will be sunny but chilly. With northerly winds in place and
h85 temps of -1 to -3 degrees C, think that highs will be limited to
mid 40s tops. A few locations may not even make it out of the low
40s.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

The upper level pattern will feature zonal flow at the start of the
forecast period, with high pressure in control at the surface.
Medium range models are having trouble with the amplitude of a
shortwave that is progged to pass through Wednesday/Wednesday night.
The more progressive/less amplified solution offered by the GFS/NAM
lack any real moisture return ahead of the system. Therefore, the
forecast would remain dry with only an subtle increase in mid and
upper level clouds. The ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the GEM,
solution really amplifies this feature across the the Gulf Coast
states. Deep moisture advection is much greater ahead of the feature
with this solution and would bring heavier cloud cover across the
south. Will stick with a dry solution to maintain forecast
continuity for now as it has support from the majority of GFS
ensemble members.

Otherwise, sensible weather will feature lows Tuesday night and
Wednesday night mostly in the mid 20s. The coolest decoupled valleys
will likely drop into the lower 20s. These readings will be around
15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Wednesday will only
be slightly warmer than Tuesday as steady northeasterly flow at the
surface continues. Look for highs in the upper 40s to around 50,
about 10 degrees below normal.

Thursday - Sunday...

Thursday will bring continued dry conditions with broad southwest
flow aloft ahead of a developing full latitude and positively tilted
trough. Skies will feature only a few upper level clouds with
slightly warmer temperatures in the 49-54 degree range. Lows
Thursday night will be milder but still slightly below normal, in
the low 30s.

Confidence decreases for the weekend as models diverge due to split
upper level flow, and the handling of a closed low moving into the
Ohio Valley. Have continued to leave the forecast dry with this
feature as there does not appear to be any real deep moisture return
ahead of the system Friday or Saturday. Pops may eventually need
added for late in the weekend as closed low gets caught up in the
southern stream and moves toward the southeast Atlantic Coast. At
this point, Atlantic moisture may begin to wrap westward on the
north side of the system, potentially making it as far west as the
LMK CWA. Will hold off on any pops for now as deep moisture will
likely stay confined to the Appalachian chain and eastward. Highs
should generally be in the low and mid 50s through the weekend, with
lows in the low and mid 30s each night.

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1227 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Surface cold front has pushed east of the terminals and post frontal
showers continue over a good portion of the area. Aviation
conditions will improve dramatically this afternoon as cold front
heads on to the east and drier air pushes in from the west.

For KBWG, MVFR ceilings will continue for the next couple of hours
as the back edge of the clouds work towards the terminal. Current
thinking is that skies will clear out by 12/20Z but surface winds
will remain a bit elevated through the remainder of the afternoon.
Sustained winds out of the NW at 10-12 with gusts to 18-20kts will
be possible. Winds will shift to the west and drop off after sunset
with clear skies expected through the overnight hours.

For KSDF, MVFR ceilings will prevail early in the TAF period with
clearing expected to take place after 12/19Z. Clouds look to
scatter out between 12/20-22Z with clear skies expected by 12/23Z.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW at 10-12 with gusts of
17-19kts being possible. Winds will slacken toward sunset with a
shift in direction mainly out of the west. Wind speeds overnight
look to remain at or below 5 kts.

For KLEX, MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings are expected early in
the TAF period. Light rain will continue through at least 12/20Z
with clearing expected to take place between 12/22-13/00Z. Winds
will remain out of the NW at 15-17 with gusts up to 20-22kts this
afternoon. Those winds will diminish toward sunset and we should
also see a shift in direction to the west after 13/00Z. Clear skies
are expected overnight with wind speeds remaining at or below 5 kts.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......AMS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1227 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Updated at 1135 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Update Issued at 832 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

.Short Term (Today - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

...A Breezy, Rainy Morning with Temperatures Falling into the 40s
Throughout the Day...

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

Thursday - Sunday...

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1227 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......AMS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1135 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.Forecast Update...
Updated at 1135 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Update Issued at 832 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

.Short Term (Today - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

...A Breezy, Rainy Morning with Temperatures Falling into the 40s
Throughout the Day...

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

Thursday - Sunday...

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 605 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Radar velocity imagery showed the cold front was just west of
BWG/SDF as of 11Z. The front will continue to move east this
morning with expected fropa times of just after 12Z at BWG/SDF and
around 1530Z at LEX. Winds will shift sharply from SSW to WNW when
the front passes through. Rains will continue ahead of and behind
the fropa. With the fropa, we`ll see wind gusts increase to around
25-30 mph with IFR conditions periodically for a few hours along and
behind the front. IFR conditions should improve to MVFR by mid-late
morning at the TAF sites and remain in the MVFR cat through early to
mid afternoon. The back end of the rain should reach the TAF sites
around 17-21Z this afternoon with flight conditions returning to VFR
shortly after.

Tonight skies should go clear with sfc winds becoming light.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......AMS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

832 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.Forecast Update...
Updated at 832 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

.Short Term (Today - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

...A Breezy, Rainy Morning with Temperatures Falling into the 40s
Throughout the Day...

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

Thursday - Sunday...

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 605 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

Tonight skies should go clear with sfc winds becoming light.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......AMS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

339 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A SHARP
TEMPERATURE DROP CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY MIXING IN
BEFORE SHOWERS COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY
AND CHILLY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE INTO EASTERN OHIO. SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY POST-
FRONTAL...EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AND HAVE
BEEN GUSTING AT AROUND 30 MPH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO QUITE
EVIDENT...WITH TEMPS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S UPSTREAM AND
SNOW MIXING IN WITH SHOWERS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IN
WESTERN OHIO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WESTERN PA...NORTH-CENTRAL
WV...AND WESTERN MD ARE STILL IN ENHANCED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70.

THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING WITH
STRONG CAA PROVIDING FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL PUSH
FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV INTO THE EASTERN
RIDGES BY THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DIMINISHING TO 20KTS IN ITS WAKE. A QUARTER
TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE RIDGES
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TO SUPPORT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
EARLY. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE RIDGES INTO DAWN. FOR PRECIP TYPE...RAP
850-700MB 1540M THICKNESS LINE AND -1C 850MB TEMP BOTH SEEM TO
LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS. THUS...EXPECT A BRIEF CHANGEOVER FOR ZANESVILLE AROUND
00Z...DUBOIS/PITTSBURGH AT 03Z...AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV IF ANY
PRECIP LINGERS BY 06Z. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE EASTERN RIDGES WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FORECAST. WITH CAA
CONTINUING...850 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -6C BY DAWN AND LOWS ARE
CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CORE OF
THE COOLEST AIR WITH 850 TEMPS DECREASING TO AROUND -8C. DESPITE CAA
AND TEMP DIFFERENTIAL SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THE FETCH (280-290 DEGREES AT 850MB) AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS (AROUND 5000FT) WILL LIMIT SNOW SHOWERS TO ONLY AREAS
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE
MARK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.

FOR THE MID-WEEK...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE IN GENERALLY A DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK
WAA AND MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPS INTO
THURSDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPS...HIGHS WILL
STILL WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES BY 02Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT RAIN SHOWERS AND SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KFKL AND KDUJ TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
POOL LAKE-ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR
WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE UPPER OHO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...RSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

139 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS. A SHARP TEMPERATURE
DROP CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST POSITION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO ZANESVILLE AND INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED BY A NARROW ENHANCED BAND ON
RADAR. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD
THE FRONT AND ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY IN
OHIO AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING AT AROUND 35 MPH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO QUITE
EVIDENT...WITH TEMPS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S UPSTREAM IN
WESTERN OHIO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS IN
ENHANCED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70 IN
WESTERN PA.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND...100 POPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING WITH STRONG CAA
PROVIDING FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL PUSH FROM EASTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WESTERN MD BY THIS EVENING. A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST INTO THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS.

DIURNAL TIMING OF THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ARE
FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GUSTS OF UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE RAP INDICATES A 65KT 850MB JET MAX SHIFTING FROM
NORTHERN OHIO INTO LAKE ERIE. WINDS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUB-
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE JET AND THE FRONT
BRINGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...A LOW-END WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH WITH
BRIEF GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE RIDGES LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL END QUICKLY...GENERALLY AROUND 01Z IN OHIO AND AROUND 04Z
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HELD UP A BIT
LONGER IN THE RIDGES. WIND GUSTS WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE LIKELY WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR ALL
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLDER TEMPS...SO ANY
MIX/SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST LONG. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SETTING
UP WELL FOR MUCH IF ANY LAKE ENHANCED/ EFFECT SNOW. WINDS NEVER
LINE UP...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 700MB. ADDITIONALLY...THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LOWER
INVERSIONS. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME UP-SLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHEST RIDGES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDEST AIR NEVER MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH.

COLDER DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME LIKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. CLOUD COVER TUESDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

SFC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR IS
PUSHED NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES BY 02Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT RAIN SHOWERS AND SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007-008-013.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1132 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS
NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH AND ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO COLUMBUS AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED BY A NARROW FRONTAL
BAND ON RADAR. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS BOTH AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS
ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY IN OHIO AND HAVE BEEN
GUSTING AT AROUND 40 MPH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO QUITE
EVIDENT...WITH TEMPS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S UPSTREAM IN
INDIANA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS IN ENHANCED
WARM AIR ADVECTION,..WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND 100 POPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING WITH STRONG CAA
PROVIDING FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL PUSH FROM EASTERN
OHIO INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WESTERN MD BY LATE AFTERNOON. A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS. STRONG WAA ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS TODAY CLOSEST TO A
LAMP/HRRR BLEND.

DIURNAL TIMING OF THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GUSTS OF UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE RAP INDICATES A 65KT 850MB JET MAX SHIFTING FROM
NORTHERN OHIO INTO LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT BRINGING WINDS TO
THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A TIER OF
COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE RIDGES LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL END QUICKLY...GENERALLY AROUND 01Z IN OHIO AND AROUND 04Z
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HELD UP A BIT
LONGER IN THE RIDGES. WIND GUSTS WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE LIKELY WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR ALL
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

SFC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR IS
PUSHED NORTHWARD.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CAN BE EXPECTED AT KZZV BY 19Z AND
SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KPBZ BY 23Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007-008-013.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1057 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS
NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH AND ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO COLUMBUS AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED BY A NARROW FRONTAL
BAND ON RADAR. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS BOTH AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS
ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY IN OHIO AND HAVE BEEN
GUSTING AT AROUND 40 MPH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE LIKELY WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR ALL
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

SFC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR IS
PUSHED NORTHWARD.

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 15Z WILL BE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR...AS INDICATED BY RECENT KPBZ DOPPLER RADAR AND
NAM MODEL PROFILES...AS STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 1 TO 2 KFT
AGL WILL INITIALLY PREVENT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS TO MIX
DOWN TO SURFACE.

CONCERN 15Z TO 22Z WILL BE ONCE VERTICAL MIXING DOES OCCUR THAT SURFACE
WIND GUSTS CAN REACH 30 TO 35 KTS. THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OF THE
WINDS CAN ALSO CREATE CROSSWIND ISSUES FOR RUNWAYS OF A MORE EAST-
WEST ORIENTATION.

BLEND OF RECENT WRF-NMM AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT NEXT SHOW A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WHICH WILL
PROMOTE A BAND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT INTO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION.

THERE CAN BE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN-
SATURATION OF THE THE SHARPLY COOLING SURFACE LAYER. SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY ALSO OCCUR. THEN EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007-008-013.
WV...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

406 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT
WEAKENING TROF EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UNDERNEATH TROF EARLIER TODAY...12Z SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KMPX
SHOWED A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE INTERSECTION OF LAKE CONVECTION THRU THE DGZ.
SO...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MDT/HVY LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AS MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS EXPECTED...A DOMINANT LES BAND
DEVELOPED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER TODAY BTWN THE MN NORTH
SHORE AND WISCONSIN`S BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WITH MID LEVEL TROF
PASSING...WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ARE NOW VEERING MORE WRLY...
SO THIS DOMINANT LES BAND IS ADJUSTING TO THE CHANGING WIND...BUT IT
IS ALSO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...WHICH MAY BE PARTLY DUE TO
NEGATIVE DIURNAL AFFECTS. KMQT/KDLH AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA RADAR
LOCATED JUST N OF THUNDER BAY ALL INDICATE AREAS OF HEAVY LES NOW
NEARING THE WRN SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW. KDLH RADAR IS STILL SHOWING
RETURNS AS HIGH AS AROUND 12KFT...SO LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION REMAINS
DEEP WITH POCKETS OF VERY HVY SNOW. AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...SHSN
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW TODAY. HOWEVER...ONLY
WEBCAM THAT HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SHARPLY REDUCED VIS AT TIMES IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SHORE WEST OF EAGLE RIVER.

FCST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH REGARD TO LES AND HEADLINES
TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE TEMP PROFILE ARGUES FOR MDT TO
HVY SNOW AT TIMES AS MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TONIGHT. BULK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS AS WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WRN LAKE DROP S
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES BRIEFLY AS HIGH AS
2-4IN/HR. AFTER THE CONVERGENCE ZONE PASSES...WIND PARALLEL BANDS
WITH MUCH MORE VARIABLE SNOW INTENSITY WILL SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. LES WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SHARP
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL TROF (180-200M HEIGHT
RISES AT 500MB BTWN 00Z AND 12Z)...INVERSION QUICKLY DROPS TO 4-5KFT
AND CONVECTIVE LAYER BEGINS TO FALL BLO THE DGZ. GIVEN THE SHORT
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND
RATHER QUICK DIMINISHING TREND THRU THE NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED SNOW
AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. MAX AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE 4-5
INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

FARTHER S...CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SINK S AND AFFECT ONTONAGON/SRN
HOUGHTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
NEGATIVE FACTORS TAKE HOLD DURING THE NIGHT TO DIMINISH LES
INTENSITY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A CONVERGENT LOOK AS WSW
LAND BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF NW WI CONVERGE WITH WNW FLOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN MORE PERSISTENT
THOUGH WEAKENING LES ACROSS ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND
PROBABLY A SMALL PART OF GOGEBIC COUNTY N OF M-28 THRU THE NIGHT.
WILL RETAIN ADVY FOR ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES TONIGHT.

TO THE E...WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENT BAND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE NE FCST AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING WITH SHARP HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING. SO...
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MDT/HVY SNOW ON WIND
SHIFT...LES THAT ORGANIZES BEHIND TROF WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL. WILL
PAINT 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALGER COUNTY E OF MUNISING AND
NRN LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT.

LINGERING LES WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END FROM W TO E TUE. MIGHT SEE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW OVER ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTY IN THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE AS
WINDS BACK TO THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LED TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND
TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE START OF SPLIT FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WHICH WILL REALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ON BY THE WEEKEND
BEHIND A WEAKER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL...WHILE
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD BE PUSHING NE OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING ABOVE
H800...WITH BROAD AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE IS SOME
DRY AIR BELOW H800...BUT NOTHING TOO SUBSTANTIAL...SO THINK THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. WITH
THE BEST FORCING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT THAT AREA TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH TO COVER MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REST OF THE CWA WITH ONLY
AN ISOLATED FLURRY OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
DELTA T VALUES AROUND 15 WOULD SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
UNDER THE SLOWLY BACKING WINDS FROM SW TO SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND
4-5KFT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THIS INVERSION COULD
WEAKEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...AS DRIER
AIR BETWEEN H875-700 AND WAA MOVES BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISHES THE CHANCES AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THIS POTENTIAL...BUT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH NAM/SREF
INDICATING INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF FOG OVER THE WEST...BUT THE
NAM HAS THINNER MID CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LEAD BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG POTENTIAL. WITH THE DIFFERENCES DIFFERENCES
IN THE MID CLOUDS...WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MID CLOUDS.

DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LARGELY BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT AND
CLOUDS WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH...SPLIT FLOW
REALLY SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WHILE
THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGES OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A VERY QUIET AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO NEXT
WEEK. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING
H850 TEMPS RISING TOWARDS 1-2C THIS WEEKEND...BUT BOTH ARE
STRUGGLING TO MIX THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE. WILL GO WITH THE
MIDDLE GROUND SINCE IT IS SO FAR OUT...HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
40S...BUT IF WE CAN TAP INTO THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD EASILY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S AT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

AFTER PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO A PREDOMINATELY WSW DIRECTION
ACROSS UPPER MI. WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...AND
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS /NAMELY KCMX/. THIS SET UP HAS ALSO PRODUCED LIGHT
SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI DIRECTLY IMPACTING KSAW. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSAW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AND BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH. KIWD AND KSAW WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. KCMX /ON THE OTHER HAND/ WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SHSN
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
EVENING. EXPOSED WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE BLSN AND LOW
VIS. MAY NEED TO MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED FOR TIMING AND IMPACTS.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...INCREASING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MN WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL BRING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO 20-30KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW
20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

100 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN IS ADVY HEADLINES OVER THE NW FCST AREA. AS
EXPECTED...WSW FLOW HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT LES
BAND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. BAND SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON KDLH RADAR
IMAGERY BTWN THE MN NORTH SHORE AND WISCONSIN`S BAYFIELD PENINSULA.
HIGHEST ELEVATION RADAR RETURNS IN THE BAND ARE UP AROUND 10KFT.
ATTM...WINDS ARE BACKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SW THAN EXPECTED OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...THIS DOMINANT LES
BAND IS STREAMING ENE DOWN THE ROUGHLY MIDLAKE PORTION BTWN THE
KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KMPX SHOWED A DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
NICE INTERSECTION OF LAKE CONVECTION THRU THE DGZ. SO...CONDITIONS
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS UPSTREAM
MID LEVEL TROF OVER ERN MN ARRIVES. ONLY CONCERN FOR THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA IS THAT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE W AS TROF PASSES...THE
DOMINANT LES BAND WILL HAVE A SHORT RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LWR SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
HOWEVER...THE VERY FAVORABLE LES PARAMETERS WILL STILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY VERY HVY SNOW...PERHAPS 2-4IN/HR RATES...AS
THE DOMINANT BAND PASSES ACROSS KEWEENAW. AFTER THE BAND PASSES
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN PERIOD...WIND PARALLEL BANDS WITH MORE
VARIABLE SNOW INTENSITY WILL SET UP FOR THE EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL
LARGELY MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FCST SNOW TOTALS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...KC/JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1015 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

FOR SAW/IWD...EXPECT VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD IN AT TIMES GUSTY WSW FLOW OF RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED COLD...
BUT DRY LLVL AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WL BE THE RULE AT CMX FOR
MUCH OF TODAY WITH THE FLOW TOO SW TO BRING IN SHSN OFF LK SUP...
THE APRCH/PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROF/DOMINANT LES BAND LATER TODAY WL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS.
GUSTY WINDS AT THIS MORE EXPOSED SITE WL ALSO HAMPER VSBY. PLAN ON
IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREDOMINATE THRU THE NGT AT CMX AS LK EFFECT
-SHSN LINGER FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE. THE WINDS/BLSN WL LIKELY
EASE A BIT LATE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT CMX TOWARD DAYBREAK
ON TUE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

640 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

600 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST TODAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
COOL WEATHER THAT MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:00 PM MONDAY...THE CAROLINAS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS IS CREATING WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE ILM CWA...WITH ISOLATED ADVECTION SHOWERS AND
TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOIST ATLANTIC ON THE E/SE RETURN FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...MEANING LESS OF A FETCH ACROSS THE OCEAN. WILL CONTINUE
SCHC POP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...THROUGH NIGHTFALL BEFORE
DECREASING INSTABILITY AND A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY WILL
HELP SQUELCH MOST SHOWERS. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY THE HRRR AND ARW
THIS AFTN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT EVEN THESE WILL CARRY VERY LITTLE QPF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO KEEP MINS QUITE
ELEVATED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST IN THE FAR
NW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. MINS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60
AT THE COAST...TO AS LOW AS 50 NEAR BENNETTSVILLE WHERE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ADVECTION SHOWERS
WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE RAMPED POP BACK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS DO GET SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WEAKENING 300MB DIFFLUENCE...BUT ENOUGH MOIST ADVECTION /LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING/ AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING AND OFFSHORE RIGHT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. PRETTY DECENT SURGE OF COLD AND MOIST AIR BEHIND FRONT
COMBINED WITH A WEDGE-TYPE SETUP ON WEDNESDAY MAKES FOR A DREARY
SHORT TERM. BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANYING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONT. BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP QPF
ON THE MODEST SIDE WITH HIGHEST VALUES WELL INLAND. MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE ORDER OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES. WEDGE TYPE PATTERN SETS UP ON
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. THE TRICKIER DAY TO
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD SURGE POST-FROPA. EXPECTING A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 50S INLAND
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MID TO UPPER 50S FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH DAYS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY THURS. A
MINOR PERTURBATION RIDES BY THURS AFTN IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY INITIATE SOME PCP FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS HANGING
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS. SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL DRYING AND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS LATE THURS BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SCOUR OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK UNDER INVERSION.

BY FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE GULF COAST AS
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MAY DEEPEN AS H5 TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHC OF PCP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FRI NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD SEE DEEPER LAYER NW FLOW SET UP WITH DRIER AIR
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
PCP THROUGH MONDAY BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE AREA WILL FINALLY DRY OUT
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF THE SUN AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN AT LOW
LEVELS. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS AND SOME PCP AT TIMES WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO REACH 60 DEGREES DURING THE DAY ACROSS
MOST OF CWA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOLID...BUT A DENSE CIRRUS OVERCAST
COULD HAMPER FOG FORMATION. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS PASSING OVER THE COOL WATER. POST FRONTAL WEATHER...LOOK
FOR A FAIRLY RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AROUND
OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. CONTINUED NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS WED
AND THURS...POSSIBLY INTO FRI AS WELL. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:00 PM FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING 10-15 KT E/SE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON
RETURN FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHILE VEERING MORE
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...ALTHOUGH FROPA WILL OCCUR WELL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH 5 FTERS
NOW SHOWING UP AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...DOMINATED BY A 6-7 SEC SE WIND
WAVE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW
WAVE PERIODS TO INCREASE AS LONG EASTERLY FETCH FAVORS A SLIGHTLY
LONGER SWELL PERIOD...WITH SEAS REMAINING 2-4 FT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS EARLY ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH BY NOON ON
TUESDAY AND THEN NE TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP
TO 15 TO 20 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL STAY IN THAT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. SEAS WILL BUILD IN TURN...REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY VALID BEGINNING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BOTH
DAYS WILL BE COOL AND CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON THURS WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE FRI AND THIS WILL ACT TO
ENHANCE THE NE GRADIENT FLOW AS IT RIDES UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL ACTUALLY TAKE A DIP DOWNWARD THROUGH
THURS IN DIMINISHING NE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURS EVENING. EXPECT A
SHARP RISE IN SEAS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BRINGING NE WINDS UP
AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KTS IN OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURS INTO
EARLY FRI ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI NIGHT. NEWEST WNA MODEL RUNS
SHOW SEAS UP CLOSE TO 10 FT OUT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY SAT NIGHT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

315 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM MONDAY...THE CAROLINAS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS IS CREATING WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE ILM CWA...WITH ISOLATED ADVECTION SHOWERS AND
TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCT LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND...BUT SHOWERS ARE SO BRIEF AND
LIMITED IN COVERAGE THAT THEY ARE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES...MVFR VSBYS AND REDUCED CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE AT THE INLAND TERMS AROUND 12Z...AND THEN THE COASTAL SITES A
COUPLE HOURS LATER. GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE INLAND...SO INCLUDED -SHRA FOR KLBT/KFLO AND VCSH ALONG THE
COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS WED
AND THURS...POSSIBLY INTO FRI AS WELL. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING 10-15 KT E/SE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON
RETURN FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHILE VEERING MORE
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...ALTHOUGH FROPA WILL OCCUR WELL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH 5 FTERS
NOW SHOWING UP AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...DOMINATED BY A 6-7 SEC SE WIND
WAVE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW
WAVE PERIODS TO INCREASE AS LONG EASTERLY FETCH FAVORS A SLIGHTLY
LONGER SWELL PERIOD...WITH SEAS REMAINING 2-4 FT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

216 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY END UP BEING VERY LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OF HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD-MORE TYPICAL
OF THE WARM SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BEING RE-ENFORCED EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. BY SATURDAY A TROUGH SPLITS OFF FROM THE NORTHERN
BRANCH AND DECELERATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE SHORT TERM STILL LURKING OFFSHORE AND PRESSURE PROGGED TO
START FALLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS MID LEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREADS.
SOME MOISTURE MAY BE FLUNG BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THAT MOST OF THE RAIN
REMAINS OFFSHORE. COASTAL LOCALES WILL BE ON THE FRINGE...ESP NC
COAST...WHERE SOME RAIN CHANCES STILL SEEM WARRANTED.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCT LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND...BUT SHOWERS ARE SO BRIEF AND
LIMITED IN COVERAGE THAT THEY ARE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES...MVFR VSBYS AND REDUCED CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE AT THE INLAND TERMS AROUND 12Z...AND THEN THE COASTAL SITES A
COUPLE HOURS LATER. GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE INLAND...SO INCLUDED -SHRA FOR KLBT/KFLO AND VCSH ALONG THE
COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS WED
AND THURS...POSSIBLY INTO FRI AS WELL. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG NE
GRADIENT WIND REGIME CONTINUES. AFTER POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNWARD
TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE PRESSURE TO BEGIN FALLING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING WELL OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE LANDMASS. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL THEN
BE FOUND IN BETWEEN IN THE BELT OF STRENGTHENING WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS FAR OUT WHICH
ZONES WILL HAVE SCEC VS SCA BUT HEADLINES OF SOME SORT DO SEEM
LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

110 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...

GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN ATLANTIC FLOW HELPING TO RESULT IN
JUST A FEW SHOWERS...WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SHOWN
ON THE LATEST MSAS TO ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AND HAVE RAIN REACH THE GROUND. AREA SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE AND DRY BY
700MB...WITH A CAP THAT REMAINS AROUND 700MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ANALYSES SHOW THAT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 SHOULD REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH THAT DESPITE
GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LIMITED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. FARTHER WEST...THE LATEST NAM
ACTUALLY SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS 18Z
APPROACHES...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED MOISTENING AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS.
850MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATE TODAY MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MANY OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING...WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY LATE TOWARD
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS FAR
EAST AS ABOUT U.S. 1 OR SO AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...AND IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THE LATEST HRRR WRF
HOLDS ONTO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. GENERALLY LOWERED MAXES
JUST A LITTLE FOR THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...AND
INCREASED MAXES A LITTLE IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE THERE. WHILE CLOUDS MAY THIN AT TIMES WEST...AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOISTURE FORECAST ALOFT WILL
MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. DESPITE 925MB WIND FORECAST OF 20 TO
30KT...HIGHEST NORTHWEST...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEMPER GUST
POTENTIAL AND HAVE SHOWN IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS GUSTS AT TIMES
AROUND 20 MPH ON AVERAGE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS AS
FAR AS TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO/THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED EASTWARD
AS A PAIR OF S/SW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER JET CROSSES THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
BEST SUPPORT ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER EXISTS IN A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS TO
WARRANT LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STILL EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS PROJECTED FARTHER E-SE AS LIFT WEAKENS WITH
TIME. WHILE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXPERIENCE VERY IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR...BASED ON OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LACK OF
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WEAK/MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

WITH FROPA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL CAA
WILL COMMENCE BY DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND IN THE MID-LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE
FRONT. CALENDER DAY HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCALES IN CENTRAL
NC WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-6AM WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. PRIOR TO FROPA...EXPECT MILD EVENING
TEMPS WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNTIL 10
PM-MIDNIGHT.

THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING THOUGH PASSAGE OF THE 700MB TROUGH NOW NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THUS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER
SOUTH OF A GOLDSBORO-FAYETTEVILLE LINE PAST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR NW-SE TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SPECIFICS WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...HOWEVER...
BY LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS LOW SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS YET TO MOVE ASHORE THE PAC NW
(THOUGH IT WILL DO SO LATER THIS MORNING)...RESULTING IN A WIDE
VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST (I.E. GA/FL/SC). THE 00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...LESS
AMPLIFIED...AND TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND
BASICALLY NO PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A
MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WED AND
INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...WITH A GOOD 0.50-1.00" OF QPF. GIVEN THE BETTER
TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY IN RECENT WEEKS...FEEL THAT A
TREND TOWARD MORE CLOUD COVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IS REQUIRED FOR THE THU/THU NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LONG RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...WHERE KEY FEATURES HAVE YET TO DEVELOP
OR BE SAMPLED...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO TEMPS OR PRECIP CHANCES FRI-SUN...AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL BE MODIFIED ONLY BY LOWERING HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20%) OF RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE LONG
RANGE MODELS...SHOWING A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE
BETWEEN SAT-TUE...WITH A GOOD 2" OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC...WHILE THE
GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND FURTHER EAST...CONFINING ANY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. -VINCENT

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD KRWI IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND AREAS OF MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE TRIAD UNDER
SCATTERED SHOWERS. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST
OF THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AIRPORTS BY 12Z TUESDAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT UNTIL DRY AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
TOWARD KINT AND KGSO TOWARD THE END OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD AS
THE DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR AT KRDU AND KFAY JUST AFTER THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A
LITTLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD KRWI. EXPECT A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 8 TO 15KT TUESDAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE CAROLINA COAST.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

945 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGING THE THREAT OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE TRIAD IN DECENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR SURFACE SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 17-20KTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BY SUNSET. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND MAINLY WEST OF KRDU AND KFAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT FROPA IN THE
TRIAD REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THE KRDU AND KFAY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM...AND THE KRWI AND GSB VICINITIES BETWEEN 7 AND
10 AM. BULK OF PRECIP AND SUB VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND
CEILINGS LIFTING) OCCURRING FROM THE NW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS. RESPITE
FROM ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THREAT OF RAIN. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING ON FRIDAY
WILL KEEP A LINGERING RISK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE-WEEK
PERIOD.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF/WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF/WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

338 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 20Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS A SHARP CUTOFF TO BOTH
PRECIP AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING
MOVING INTO NW OH ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. OBS HAVE SHOWN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES BUT RAIN ELSEWHERE. MADE
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD AND DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH THAT MENTION ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ONCE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS DEPARTS TO THE EAST THE FOCUS WILL BE ON
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -8C OR
SO AND INVERSIONS SHOWN ON BUFKIT SOUNDING STILL A BIT HIGH
EXPECTING LINGERING CLOUDS WITH WEST WINDS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THINKING THAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THIS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT LATE OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR AND MODELS SHOWING SHARPER UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO HELP IN GETTING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV TEMPS WITH HRRR TRENDS
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM ON HOURLY TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE POPS NOT INDICATING MUCH WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WENT WITH AT LEAST HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE OH AND NW
PA TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE WEST FLOW NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACROSS
GREATER CLEVELAND AREA...WITH BEST ACCUMS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO INTERIOR ERIE COUNTY. THINKING FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTIES AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH. BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE OFF THE LAKE APPEARS TO BE IN THIS AREA ALSO. OVERALL
THOUGH THINKING ACCUMS WILL RANGE AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS
INTERIOR NW PA TO LESS THAN AN INCH BACK INTO FAR NE OH COUNTIES.

BY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR OVERCOMES
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY FURTHER ACCUMS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL HELP ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RANGE IN MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS AND AM
SNOW SHOWERS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SOME ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME WEAK UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW DURING THE PERIOD. DESPITE THAT MAINLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF MET MAV AND MEX NUMBER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEEING NO
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED EVEN
AS THE CENTER OF IT DRIFTS INTO EASTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE. SO AT THIS
POINT WE EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS SEEN WELL ON RADAR LOOP STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF
KCLE TO KBJJ AT 1740Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS AND
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THERE
STILL HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS WITHIN A COUPLE KNOTS OF 35. AS THE
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE EAST EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR BEFORE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE AIR CHILLS CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN LOW END MVFR INTO THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW THAT BEGINS ACROSS THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT AND MAYBE EVEN DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL
THEN WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP OFF THE LAKES AS
SOME COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BELIEVE THE CLOUD
COVER OFF THE LAKES WILL BE MVFR WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
EAST OF CLEVELAND INTO NW PA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR NE OH/NW PA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE LAKE.

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS DIE DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE
INCREASED MIXING WILL OCCUR OVER THE LAKE. THE 850MB TEMPS FORECAST
TO DIP TO MINUS 10C BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE SMALL
CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED OVER MOST OF LAKE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1130 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-65 CORRIDOR AND IS MOVING EAST. LOW CLOUD AREA EXTENDS BACK TO
THE TN RIVER BUT IS ALSO MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THUS...PRECIP TO
END DURING THE BEGINNING STAGES OF THE TAF PD. ALSO...CLOUDINESS
TO DECREASE AND SKC WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS BY 00Z. QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH NO CIG OR VSBYS ISSUES THEREAFTER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012/

UPDATE...UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH OCNL
IFR. FRONT HAS PASSED KCKV AND IS NEARLY ON KBNA...AND WILL REACH
KCSV ABOUT 17Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KCKV AND KBNA BY 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012/

SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AT 08Z AND CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD PUSH. A BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXISTED JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER REMAINS PRETTY LOW, WITH POSITIVE CAPES ONLY IN THE 100-200
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, CAN`T RULE OUT A
ROGUE FLASH OF LIGHTNING FROM ONE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
SO, WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

LONG TERM...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, AND IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INVOF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...AND MAY ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR SOME COUNTIES ON OR AROUND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLING EAST OF OUR
AREA BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUSHING ANY SHOWERS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1040 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012/

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

534 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH OCNL
IFR. FRONT HAS PASSED KCKV AND IS NEARLY ON KBNA...AND WILL REACH
KCSV ABOUT 17Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KCKV AND KBNA BY 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012/

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

200 PM CST MON NOV 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY
200 PM CST MON NOV 12 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES AND IF ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT FEW DAYS CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...AND
PROGRESSIVE DEEP TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WISCONSIN AND INTO MISSOURI. PLENTY OF COLD AIR UNDER THIS DEEP
TROUGHING...NOTED BY 12Z MPX SOUNDING REPORTING 925MB AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -11C AND -16C RESPECTIVELY. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM 900-700MB ON THAT 12Z MPX SOUNDING IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AS WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING ADDING A LITTLE
INSTABILITY...HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS...FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE NARROW BAND EVEN
BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM AT THE OFFICE AND KLSE AIRPORT
FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES AROUND 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...SEEN IN THE 12Z BIS SOUNDING...IS HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER LAKE ERIE.
THE CLOUDS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WIND HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE 20S.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ITS WAKE MOVES INTO NEBRASKA.
WITH THIS RIDGE APPROACHING AND THE DEEP TROUGHING DEPARTING...
EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE...DRYING AND CLEARING SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS TO
SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE CLEARING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE
AND SET UP FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IF WE HAD A
SNOWPACK LIKE OVER THE DAKOTAS...CONCERN WOULD BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES FALLING AT OR BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...THE MOSTLY BARE
GROUND SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE FALL. STAYED TOWARDS THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT THE FAVORED COLD SPOTS. CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THAT NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING UP 0 TO -3C. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SINCE IT SEEMED REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST TAKING IT DOWN INTO ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE SUGGESTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA...WHICH MODELS ARE PINGING ON PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT
QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WEAKER SHORTWAVE HAS A BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS TERRIBLE DUE THE CURRENT
DEEP TROUGH SCOURING OUT MOISTURE. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS INTACT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STILL LOOK ON TAP TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH THAT
WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
0C ON WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN INTO SASKATCHEWAN LATE WEDNESDAY...MOVING EAST INTO
ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. 12.12Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND WITH THE TIMING. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AS ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION. SIMILAR TO THE TUESDAY NIGHTWEDNESDAY
SITUATION...THIS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED. IF
THERE ARE ANY CLOUDS...THEY ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 AND OF THE
MID-LEVEL VARIETY...ASSOCIATED WITH THAT BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE
REFERENCED IN THE TUESDAY NIGHTWEDNESDAY DISCUSSION. THUS...DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
CONCERN EXISTS ABOUT TEMPERATURES TANKING...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
I-90 WHERE LESS CLOUDS EXIST. 30 DAY BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW THE TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S...SO
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS. READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AT MOST
MID 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE ELSEWHERE. COMBINATION OF SUN AND 850MB
TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 0-2C RANGE ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN. 12.12Z
NAM 2 METER TEMPERATURE OUTPUT IS EVEN HIGHER...MID TO UPPER 50S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT IT MIGHT BE MIXING TOO
DEEPLY GIVEN SOME CLOUD CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
200 PM CST MON NOV 12 2012

THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUIET. 12.12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE STILL PAINTING A SIMILAR
PICTURE...SHOWING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
STAYING IN CANADA AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
U.S.. IN ADDITION...DEEP TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC...PERHAPS SLIDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
THIS TROUGH ONLY HELPS TO LIFT THE NORTHERN STREAM FARTHER NORTH
THROUGH CANADA AND MAY EVEN TRY TO BUILD A SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN KEEPS A FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS OF 0-2C ON FRIDAY LOOK TO CLIMB TO 2-4C
FOR THE WEEKEND AND AROUND 4C BY LATE MONDAY. WITH MOISTURE
EXTREMELY LIMITED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGIONS...ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING...HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD IS ALSO DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THOSE LOOKING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
DEEP EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT ACCORDING TO THE 12.12Z
ECMWF/GFS AND LATEST CFS RUNS...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. IF THIS DOES INDEED PAN OUT...EVEN WARMER
AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS TOO.
OF COURSE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS GIVEN THAT THANKSGIVING IS
STILL 9-10 DAYS OUT.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1125 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WERE BEING SEEN IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...DOWN TO AROUND A MILE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 015-025K FEET.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THIS EVENING AND MODELS SHOW SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
200 PM CST MON NOV 12 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING