Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/10/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

917 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...SURGE HAS MOVED ACROSS DENVER AREA A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADJUSTING
WIND GRIDS AS NEEDED. ALSO...FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
CLOUD DISSIPATING BY 20Z. BUT MORE MOISTURE IS UPSTREAM WHICH ALL
THE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE EVENING. SO WILL
ALSO NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD GRIDS. AIRMASS
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND SURGE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION...SURGE HAS MOVED ACROSS DIA A BIT SOONER THAN MODELS
SUGGESTED...TAF HAS BEEN RECENTLY UPDATED. TIMING FOR APA AND BJC
STILL LOOKING REASONABLE. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAY HOLD ONTO A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT UNTIL 20Z...PER HRRR SOLUTION. REST OF TAF
TRENDS SEEM ON TRACK...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT MORE CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012/

SHORT TERM...COLORADO WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED UNDER THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED FROM THE PASSING MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE IN THE
MORNING AND STALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. LOOKS LIKE TODAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST COUPLE WARM DAYS OF AUTUMN FOR AWHILE
AS BIG CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. READ ON.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON FRI AS SFC LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES FM CNTRL WY INTO ERN
CO. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY IN THE MTNS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ACROSS NERN CO
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH LVL CLOUDS IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHS OVER NERN
CO WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ALTHOUGH AREAS ACROSS ERN ELBERT
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES COULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SNOW BECOME LIKELY FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS SOME QG ASCENT COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES.
ZN 31 COULD DO WELL IN THIS SET UP SO MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. OTHERWISE SWLY FLOW IS NOT AS FAVORABLE IN MOST OTHER
MTN AREAS. ACROSS NERN CO A CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 12Z
SAT AND THEN MAY STALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY AFTN. AS A RESULT
WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP FM DENVER NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. COMBINATION OF DECENT LASPE RATES...AND POSITION OF UPPER
LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR BANDED PCPN BY AFTN
IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NRN AREAS OF THE FRONT RANGE. SOUNDING
DATA SHOWS WET BULB ZEROS DROPPING DOWN BLO 6000 FEET BY AFTN SO
SHOULD SEE RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY
LATE AFTN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BASED ON FNTL
POSITION AS READINGS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH OF
FNT WHILE SOUTH OF IT OVER LINCOLN COUNTY HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S.

BY SAT NIGHT INTO THE SUN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WLY. CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE IN THE MTNS HOWEVER 700
MB FLOW IS RATHER WEAK BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH AMOUNTS
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS THRU SUN MORNING. OVER NERN
CO UPLSOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT AND AS MAIN PART OF
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SNOW ENDING SUN
MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SET UP COULD SEE FM 4 TO 8
INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NERN CO. HIGHS
ON SUN WILL BE MUCH COLDER AS READINGS MAY NOT GET ABV 30 DEGREES
OVER MOST OF NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. COULD STILL SEE A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE NRN MTNS DUE TO
FAVORABLE OROGAPHIC FLOW. BY MON DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH NO CHC OF PCPN. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME OVER NERN CO
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

BY TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH THE GFS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
RGN SO COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BUT NO PCPN. HIGHS ON
TUE COULD BE ALTERED BY CLOUD COVER OVER NERN CO SO CURRENT
GUIDANCE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WRM. THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 45 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE. FOR WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN US. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO A
WK FNT MAY BACKDOOR INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

AVIATION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS MORNING BUT THEN INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. NO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE STATE. WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...IN A TYPICAL DIURNAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS INTENSIFYING OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 15 MPH WITH THE
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH AS
THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO EASTERLY.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

1231 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH MAY FORM NEARBY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED WITH A
STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOTED ON REGIONAL RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY VORTICITY OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FULL
RECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KT OF MIXED LAYER WIND THROUGH SUNRISE. THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP INTO MID 30S
WELL INLAND WITH LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
AREAS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS ALLENDALE...ROCKY FORD AND JAMESTOWN...BUT THE
SITUATION LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR A FREEZE WARNING.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FROST TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED FROST ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-WALTERBORO-SUMMERVILLE-JAMESTOWN LINE. A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS ALSO
SHOW SOME COLDER POCKETS IN SE GEORGIA LIKE STATESBORO AND SYLVANIA
AND THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST ALONG/NEAR THE I-16
CORRIDOR IN SE GEORGIA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHICH WILL PROMOTE SOME FROST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COOLER SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES. THUS...A
FROST ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. LESS LIKELY IS THAT A FEW
SPOTS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A
FREEZE WATCH AND/OR WARNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS PRETTY GOOD. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE BEING ERODED AWAY FROM THE WEST BY A DE-AMPLIFYING TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROF AND A MORE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODEL PRECIP
RESPONSE IS QUITE MUTED...AND THE MAIN AFFECT OF THE INCREASINGLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND THE HIGH RETREATS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF
THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROF...I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
NW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS THROUGH. ALL
WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RATHER QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AFTER THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS MAINLY
15 KT OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT THIS FEATURE WOULD GENERALLY
AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS MORE SO THAN SPEEDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT
OR LESS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST SWELL.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...ST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

155 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE FIRST OFF THE LINGERING
PESKY STRATUS AND TIMING ITS DEPARTURE AS WELL AS TO WHAT DEGREE
OF IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE WARM-UP WHICH ENSUES IN EARNEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY THE WEATHER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMTH WILL BRING
WARM AIR ADVECTION CHANCES OF PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER FOOT WILL THEN DROP WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AND AN ATMOSPHERE PLENTY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MI AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN AREA OF STRATUS CAUGHT WITHIN THE NULL FLOW
HUNG AROUND ALL WED NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAINS THIS
MORNING. BUT THIS IS BEGINNING TO BE ON THE MOVE AS THE RETURN
WIND FLOW BEGINS IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. THE CLOUD DEPTH IS
ABOUT 1500-2000 FT PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS...NORMALLY SHALLOW ENOUGH
TO BE SCATTERED THROUGH WARMING AND MORE TURBULENT FLOW TODAY.
BUT A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION DOES EXIST ABOVE THIS AND MIXING
DEPTHS WILL NOT REACH AS DEEP AS THE CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING. SO
GETTING THE STRATUS OUT OF HERE LOOKS TO DEPEND MORE ON ADVECTION
AND THAT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RAP SOLUTIONS OF
RH FIELDS SEEMS TO DEPICT A VERY LIKELY SCENARIO...OF THE OVERCAST
NATURE OF THE CLOUDS HOLDING THIS MORNING AS THEY ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD...MEANING THE CHICAGO AREA BEING THE LAST TO
SCATTER IN NORTHERN IL...LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE NOON HOUR OR MAYBE
EVEN JUST AFTER. HAVE ACCORDINGLY KEPT TEMPERATURES SLOW TO CLIMB
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY GREATER WARMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A GENERALLY WARM STARTING POINT IN ALMOST ALL PLACES BECAUSE
OF THE CLOUDS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WERE INCHED UP 2-3
DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT NORMAL...THOUGH THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE THE
1ST OF THE MONTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN OCCURS UPSTREAM...WITH A
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A LEAD SHORT
WAVE...ACTUALLY SEEN THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR JUST OFFSHORE OF
SAN DIEGO...WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LINE
UP WELL WITH THE BIG PUSH OF 700-925MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS...WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT AIDING IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. MAINTAIN
THE CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...WITH ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
INDICES BECOMING MODEST WITHIN THE DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION.

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS TAKE A NOTEWORTHY CLIMB ON SATURDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE LOOK TO STEER THE THERMAL RIDGE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MORNING CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES A POSSIBILITY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A DRYING COLUMN AND NVA IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE SUNNY ON
SATURDAY FROM THE GET-GO. LOCAL RESEARCH FOR 925 MB TEMPS AT THE
FORECAST OF +14C THIS TIME OF YEAR PROVIDE A MEDIAN HIGH OF 67
DEGREES IN CHICAGO. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS BEING A CONCERN THAT FAR
NORTH...AM NOT GOING ANY HIGHER...BUT FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DO HAVE
HIGHS AROUND 70. THE SREF MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS...WITH EVEN A FEW
MEMBERS FROM THE 08.03 GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR PONTIAC. IF
CURIOUS TO WHERE THIS STANDS FOR NOV 10TH...THE RECORD HIGH AT CMI
IS 74 AND BMI IS 76.

THE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEIGHT FALLS AND THE HEART OF THE
MOISTURE TONGUE...AND THUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...CONFINED TOWARD THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
ENTERING WESTERN IL...AND THEN SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED
WITH THE PASSAGE SHOW UP. BUT GUIDANCE AGREES ON DEEP MOISTURE
AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PWATS
ON THE GFS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOV CLIMO IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. SO HAVE A
SLOW INCREASE IN POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IN PLACES...BUT GENERAL DRYNESS THIS
AUTUMN LOOKS TO PRECLUDE ANY MAJOR ISSUES WITH THAT...THOUGH
SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITOR ON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITHIN
THE MOIST TONGUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND POTENTIALLY VERY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ALREADY LOOK TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK OF 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE UPPER LOW EVOLVES...ANY FORCING FOR POST-FRONTAL
PRECIP/SHOWERS WOULD VERY LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW IF CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE SHOWERY WITH THE UPPER LOW
BEING THE MAIN PLAYER AT THAT POINT. HIGHS ON TUE LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE 30S IN PLACES WITH FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8C
TO -10C RANGE.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* HI END MVFR CIGS PERSISTING TIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WESTERN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN CLEARING NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
VERY GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING FURTHER E ACROSS LOWER MI AND IN. THIS RETURN FLOW IS
ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS BUT THEY WERE STILL HIGH
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED FOR A BIT OF
DIURNAL BACK-FILLING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A NET SLOWING OF THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING.

DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MODEL FORECAST THERMAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE TEMPERATURES AT THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION THAT IS IN PLACE WILL WARM ENOUGH DUE TO BOTH
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE TO RAISE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ENOUGH TO ALLOW TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO START TO MIX OUT
AND EXTINGUISH THE DIURNAL CLOUDS. CLEARING EXPECTED TO REACH
IMMEDIATE CHI AREA AROUND 22Z.

TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO HAVE MOVED TO THE MID-UPPER OH AND THE TN VALLEYS...
AND LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO KEEP
ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO
PREVENT ANY BR DEVELOPMENT. GRADIENT TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FRI AS THE HIGH PLAINS LOW DEEPENS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE BASE OF
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION PROGGED TO INCREASE 20-25 KT BY 09.18Z BUT
A DECK OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING SO SURFACE HEATING TO DEEPEN MIXED LAYER UP
TO THESE WINDS WILL BE HINDERED AND SURFACE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 10 KT.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRATOCU CIGS SCATTERING OUT AROUND 22Z.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE REST OF FORECASTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY. CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA LATE.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
136 PM CST

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY. WRF-NAM AND
WRF-NMM BOTH SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF EASTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP
OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. DP/DROP FROM
LAST 4 RUNS OF THE WRF-NAM SHOW THE FORECAST WINDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING STRONGER EACH OF THE LAST 4 RUNS LENDING A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A PERIOD OF EAST GALES. IN ADDITION...THE
EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL FAVOR SOME CHANNELING OF THE WINDS THROUGH
THE MACKINAW STRAITS FROM LAKE HURON AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STILL
PROGGED TO BE MODERATELY COLDER THAN LAKE TEMPS INSTABILITY SHOULD
FAVOR SUFFICIENT MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT POINT LM1 DO
NOT SHOW THE STRONG WINDS AS THE CHANNEL OF STRONGEST WINDS HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF LM1.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY...BUT
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY TO NEAR RECORD WARM AIR
NORTHWARD AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STABILITY OF THE MARINE LAYER AND
HOW EFFECTIVELY THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AT BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. PLAN TO HOLD WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY JUST
BELOW GALES FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND JUST INCLUDE OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS AND HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

136 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* HI END MVFR CIG PERSISTING INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRATOCU CIGS SCATTERING OUT AROUND 22Z.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE REST OF FORECASTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY. CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA LATE.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
136 PM CST

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362...6 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1147 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* HI END MVFR CIG PERSISTING INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRATOCU CIGS SCATTERING OUT AROUND 22Z.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE REST OF FORECASTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY. CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA LATE.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
315 AM CST

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS TO THE LAKE WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER...AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 30KT
ACROSS THE LAKE...AND DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS DEEPENING
OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TO JAMES BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1009 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS TO VFR LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

CONDITIONS AT ORD AND MDW SHOWED LITTLE OR NO CHANGE OVER LAST
COUPLE HRS. LOCATIONS ACROSS N CENTRAL IL INCLUDING DKB...RPJ AND
VYS HAVE HI END MVFR CIGS BUT P6SM VSBYS AS GRADUALLY INCREASING
SW LLVL FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER DWPTS.
HOWEVER...TO SW-SSW OF ORD AND MDW DWPTS STILL IN UPR 30S-LWR 40S
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT LOT...C09...PNT...BMI AND AAA SO
BELIEVE WILL TAKE A COUPLE HRS BEFORE WE SEE IMPROVEMENT VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS.

TRS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

MAIN CONCERN FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON CIGS/VIS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PERSISTENT AREA OF ST OVER IL/WI
IS MOVING TO THE EAST...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NWRN IL. THE TREND FOR THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE TO THIN THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREAS OF 2-4SM BR SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS REMAIN LGT/VRBL...BUT SOME
WARMING COMBINED WITH THINNING OF THE ST LAYER SHOULD ALLOW VIS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR. SINCE THE ST LAYER HAS REMAINED THICK ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS RADIATIVE COOLING...DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP ANY
LOWER THAN THAT WHICH IS OCCURRING AT ISSUANCE TIME.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SLY-SWLY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT THAT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
ARND 10KT...WITH SOME OCNL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR 19-20Z.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY. CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA LATE.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
315 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

834 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR VSBY TO AOB 6SM DURING MID-LATE MORNING.

* IMPROVEMENT OF HI END MVFR CIGS TO VFR DURING MID-LATE MORNING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

TRS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VIS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 16Z.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY. CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA LATE.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
315 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

545 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* VIS 2-4SM IN BR OVERNIGHT.

* LOWER VFR CIGS OVC035-040...POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT DURG THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

MAIN CONCERN FOR EALY THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON CIGS/VIS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PERSISTENT AREA OF ST OVER IL/WI
IS MOVING TO THE EAST...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NWRN IL. THE TREND FOR THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE TO THIN THROUGH THE MORNINGAS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREAS OF 2-4SM BR SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS REMAIN LGT/VRBL...BUT SOME
WARMING COMBINED WITH THINNING OF THE ST LAYER SHOULD ALLOW VIS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR. SINCE THE ST LAYER HAS REMAINED THICK ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS RADIATIVE COOLING...DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP ANY
LOWER THAN THAT WHICH IS OCCURRING AT ISSUANCE TIME.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS THIS MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY. CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA LATE.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
315 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

313 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* MVFR VIS IN BR OVERNIGHT.

* CHANCE FOR IFR VIS IN FG OVERNIGHT IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR OUT
EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE SUNRISE.

* LOWER VFR CIGS OVC035-040...POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT DURG THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL FOCUS ON
CIGS/VIS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ST OVER
IL/WI...WITH THE EASTERN EDGE VERY CLOSE TO GYY AND THE WESTERN
EDGE OVER ERN IOWA. THE TREND FOR THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE TO
THIN OVERNIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
PATCHY AREAS OF 3-5SM BR HAVE DEVELOPED AS WINDS ARE CALM AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE
THICK ST DECK HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...KEEPING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM DROPPING BELOW 2-3
DEGREES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR LEVELS...OR LOWER...IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE
SUNRISE. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IF THIS WILL
HAPPEN...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS AND MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE
SLY-SWLY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT THAT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ARND 10KT...WITH SOME OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG WITH IFR OR LOWER VIS OVERNIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

KJB

.MARINE...
315 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

240 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM CST

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* OCNL MVFR VIS IN BR OVERNIGHT.

* CHANCE FOR IFR VIS IN FG OVERNIGHT IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR OUT
EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE SUNRISE.

* LOWER VFR CIGS OVC035-040...POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT DURG THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG WITH IFR OR LOWER VIS OVERNIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

KJB

.MARINE...
354 PM CST

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TO START TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. DURING THIS
TIME...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. WINDS UP TO 30 KT
ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE...AND IN THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH HALF. A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND TO JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND REALLY RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AGAIN
INDICATED OCCASIONAL GALES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE MOST
CONFIDENCE IN THEM OCCURRING AND POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY NEEDING A
GALE WATCH OVER THE NORTH HALF. GALES APPEAR POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH
HALF ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS EVENT WILL
BE THAT THE AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
LAKE WATERS...CREATING STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONE MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GALES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE NORTH BUOY SHOW WINDS CLOSE TO 40 KT JUST
100-200 FT OFF THE LAKE SURFACE. SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH STRONGER
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1240 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.AVIATION...

SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INDIANA BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...JUST WEST OF KSBN. LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION ACROSS IL. CIGS ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 KFT. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH RIDGE OVER AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. ADDED SOME MENTION OF BR AT KSBN GIVEN SURROUNDING
OBS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND CONCERNED
THAT CLOUDS OVER IL WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EAST FOLLOWING RUC AND
LOCAL WRF TRAJECTORIES. HAVE KEPT A SCT CLOUD LAYER BUT THIS COULD
EASILY BECOME BKN TO OVC AND FLIRT WITH MVFR DURING THE MORNING IF
THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MIX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND AN EVENING UPDATE IS CURRENTLY
NOT ANTICIPATED. BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MAY TEND TO
ADVECT STRATOCU DECK ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EASTWARD...POSSIBLY
CLIPPING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVERNIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY EASTWARD EXPANSION OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
STRATOCU IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE UNDERCUTTING OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MINS TONIGHT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND RECENT MOS WARM BIASES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

DRY AIR/MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HAS WON OUT TODAY ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
THANKS TO LOW LVL RIDGE BUILDING BACK SW INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE INTO TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK PRESSURE/THERMAL
ADVECTION/FLOW WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS SPILLOVER INTO THE AREA ON
EASTERN FRINGE OF CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS. OPTED TO ADD
PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAR SWERN ZONES FOR LATER TONIGHT GIVEN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS WI/IL/FAR
WESTERN IN. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL
SUPPORT OPTIMAL LONGWAVE LOSS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUMMET MAINLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. AIRMASS DRY AS MENTIONED
BUT WITH TEMPS FCST TO DROP BLO XOVER VALUES MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY NEAR AREA LAKES.
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF FOG REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
GRIDS OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SW AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SFC RIDGE NEAR
TOMORROW NOT EXPECTING A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER WHICH SHOULD TEMPER
WARMUP A BIT AT THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
MATERIALIZES AS HEIGHT/MASS ADJUSTMENTS WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND MID
LVL SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST INTO MANITOBA/ONTARIO FORCES LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EAST INTO AT
LEAST OUR IN/MI ZONES. REGARDLESS...THURSDAY OVERALL STILL APPEARS
TO BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY
INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LONG TERM.../FRI-WED/
DEEPENING UPR TROF OFF THE PAC NW COAST THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE WRN U.S. FRIDAY WITH BUILDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY/GRTLKS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SUGGESTING THESE FEATURES WILL PROGRESS E-NE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MAIN SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER NERN CO FRI AND LIFT NE INTO MN SAT. WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE NRN PORTION
OF OUR CWA BY FRI EVE WITH LLJ OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/LWR
OH VALLEY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AND WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FRI NGT/SAT.

OTRWS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SUN AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND STRENGTHENS. HEIGHT FALLS AND SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG UPR TROF/SFC CDFNT SHOULD
SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BIG QUESTION REMAINS
IF/WHEN/WHERE SFC WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE ERN U.S.. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN
THIS REGARD. PREFERENCE WITH MOST CONSISTENT ECMWF INDICATING WK
WAVE MOVING NNE ALONG THE CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIP IN
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT. CAA MAY CAUSE
PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING... ESPECIALLY IF
A STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z
GFS/GEM. HAVE ADDED CHC OF SNOW TO FCST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTING LTL OR NO ACCUM. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS AT LEAST ACROSS WRN PORTION OF THE CWA
MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE L-M40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BY TUE. THIS COLD SNAP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS UPR TROF LIFTS
RAPIDLY NE AND WKNS... AND FLOW BACKS OVER THE GRTLKS AS ANOTHER
TROF DIGS INTO WRN US.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY
UPDATE...MARSILI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1137 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IL WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS FROM 25HND TO 35HND FT EXTENDS WEST INTO
EASTERN IA LATE THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SHOULD
HELP KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE. FOR THURSDAY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20KTS
BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING
TO LESS THAN 10KTS DURING THE EVENING.

DLF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO SLIDE
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS RIFE WITH PRESSURE FALLS AND LLVL RETURN FLOW...
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW PREVIOUSLY
PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES GETTING PRESSED EASTWARD
ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SURGE OF PACIFIC NW UPPER JET ENERGY.
OTHER UPPER JET MAX OVER THE ARE THIS MORNING STARTING TO DEPART OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO EAST COAST L/W TROF BASE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
ONGOING CLOUD DECK ALIGNED ACRS MUCH OF THE UPPER TO MID MS RVR
VALLEY REGIONS. DEPARTING UPPER JET TO THE SE AND ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM
RIDGE GETTING PRESSED ACRS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ONGOING
SUBSIDENCE REGIME WHICH NORMALLY WOULD MEAN A CLOUD DECAY/CLEAR OUT.
BUT FCST SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TRAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT TO GET ENHANCED BY THE SAME PROCESSES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD TRAP THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT CLEAR OUT
TRENDS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. LATEST RAP RUNS IN HANDLING MOISTURE
IN THE H95-H85 MB LAYER ALSO POINT TO THE LOW CLOUDS GETTING TRAPPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE SOME
CLEARING PUSH INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. WEST OF THE
MS RVR...EXPECT PREVIOUS CLEARING HOLES THAT DIURNALLY FILLED WITH
CUMULUS TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN AFTER SUNSET...MAKING FOR A PATCHY
CLEARING PATTERN ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. WILL PLAY THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THE FCST
AND HANG THEM ON ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING TRENDS TOWARD SUNRISE THU MORNING.
RIDGE-RIDING CI WILL ALSO SPILL DOWN ACRS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH DELAYED CLEARING TRENDS IN MIND...ONGOING LOWS
GENERALLY STILL LOOK ON TARGET EXCEPT MAYBE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT UPWARD
ACRS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBLE CLEARING
HOLES UNDER RIDGE AXIS...WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG MENTION INTRODUCED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFT ACRS GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA.
WITH LACK OF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND THUS LIMITED DRYING...PATCHY FOG WORDING MAYBE WARRANTED FURTHER
TO THE WEST.

THURSDAY...SOME OF THE RETURN FLOW GRADIENT AND SUNSHINE GOING ON
NOW ACRS THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACRS THE LOCAL
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
TRANSLATE LOCALLY TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON ACRS EASTERN NEB AND
FAR WESTERN IA...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CHANCE AT A 60
DEGREE READING BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. ..12..

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
NEAR RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SIGNIFICANT RAINS WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...LIMITED UPSTREAM SENSIBLE WEATHER INITIALIZATION ISSUES
WITH D_PROG_DT AND MOISTURE BIASES SUPPORTING WITH COLD FRONT USING
GFS AS THE PRIMARY TOOL. THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SEASONABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS OF .5+ OF AN INCH...UP TO LOCALLY 2.0 INCHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY BY FRIDAY PM. NEARLY STEADY TO
POSSIBLY SLOWLY RISING MINS IN THE 30S THURSDAY AM. THEN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S NE TO LOWER 60S SW WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER VALUES IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND BL MIXING OCCURS. FRIDAY NIGHT...VERY MILD WITH
MINS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF RECORD WARM MINS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S NE
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SW SECTIONS. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
ARRIVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG WAA TO KEEP REGION WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF RECORDS. KEPT VERY LOW
POPS WITH LIGHT -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PW/S AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL JET. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR HIGHS AND MINS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS WITH TEMPERATURES
CRASHING 25-30+ PLUS DEGREES WITHIN 6 HOURS OF THE FRONT PASSING.
SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/RAINSHOWERS AND
SOME EMBEDDED BRIEF THUNDER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
A LARGE GRADIENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. GONE WITH NEAR 50F FAR NW TO
THE MIDDLE 60S FAR SW SECTIONS. LIKELY THIS GRADIENT WILL BE GREATER
ONCE TIMING ISSUE BETTER RESOLVED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PW
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF FRONT PER LOCAL TECHNIQUES CONFIRM
AT LEAST .5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 1.5+ INCHES WITH TRAINING AND
EVEN HIGHER POSSIBLE WITH ANY WAVE ON THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COLD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
MINS IN THE 20S...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS IN FAVORED LOW LYING
LOCATIONS.

NICHOLS

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

844 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

AREA OF FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOP ALONG NORTHERN CWA...BUT THINK DURATION WILL BE
RATHER SHORT LIVED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND MOIST LAYER
BECOMES MORE AND MORE SHALLOW.

CONCERN IS INCREASING ABOUT POTENTIAL HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WINDS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER WILL HOVER AROUND
50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LATEST NAM INDICATING AREA OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE 00Z ENSEMBLE GFS DATA BEFORE
UPGRADING TO WARNING THOUGH...SO FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE ADJUST
WINDS UP AND ADDED BLOWING DUST TO A FEW AREAS. ALSO EXPANDED
ADVISORY TO RED WILLOW COUNTY BASED ON LATEST DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

AFTER EXAMINING LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL DATA...LATEST LBF
SOUNDING AND NOTING HOW QUICKLY TEMPS ARE FALLING IN THE EAST
CONCERN FOR FOG INCREASING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE FOG
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO END EARLIER THAN NORMAL HOWEVER AS WARM/DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SHIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT...LIKELY REDUCING THE DEPTH OF NEAR SFC
MOIST LAYER TO THE POINT WHERE FOG WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM A TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER
WASHINGTON STATE. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH BREEZY SW WINDS
AND WARMER H85 TEMPS RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE S-SW WITH H85 JET BETWEEN 40-45KT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...THOUGH IF H7 WINDS WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WE COULD APPROACH
WARNING CRITERIA. IM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE 3HR OF SUSTAINED
CRITERIA IN SHERMAN COUNTY AND CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COLORADO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH THERE SO I
WAS COMFORTABLE INCLUDING THEM IN THE ADVISORY.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. ALL
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE DRY LINE REMAINING EAST OF THE
CWA...SO I DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE EAST UNTIL FROPA AND
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE BEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO
CWA BY 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

THE COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE IN...A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. MOST MODELS...THE
CANADIAN...THE EUROPEAN AND THE NAM TO BE SPECIFIC...HAVE INCREASED QPF
AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS DECREASED QPF
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOW
FORECAST. THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
MOST AREAS TO AS HIGH AS AN INCH IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. HPC IS
SUGGESTING TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES IN NORTHERN YUMA
COUNTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS HAPPENED.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ALL THE PRECIPITATION CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN
WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
TRI-STATE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS
FROM MOVING IN UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

MODEL AGREEMENT FROM YESTERDAY ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM HAS TURNED
INTO COMPLETE MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER
NEBRASKA...WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS 12Z MODEL RUN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL HAS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS NOW
FORECASTING A VERY WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATER...NOW ON
SATURDAY INSTEAD OF FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL AMPLIFIES THIS TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT...THUS MISSING THE
TRI-STATE AREA. IT IS HARD TO DECIDE WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT AT THE
MOMENT...SO JUST WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND. THIS SUGGESTED SLIGHT
CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING IN BEHIND THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SO HAVE GONE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

AREA OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HAZE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPEAR
RATHER HIGH. GIVEN THE EXENT OF 6-7SM VISIBILITIES THINK HOLDING
ONTO THESE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS NEEDED AT MCK. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WITH
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP VISBIES IN MVFR RANGE. BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 42 KTS POSSIBLE AT GLD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ081.

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

547 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ003-004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

452 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ003-004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1201 PM MST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MAXES IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS BEEN DECENT AND TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING A LITTLE
TO RISE. LATEST RUC AND NAM APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THIS WELL AND
ARE SIMILAR. SO ADJUSTED THE MAXES DOWN MOSTLY AS STATED ABOVE
WITH SLIGHTER ADJUSTMENTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST PER THAT GUIDANCE
AND LATEST TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS DOWN FOR TOMORROW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME GUSTY AS
BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND
AREA VWPS INDICATE AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH. RUC AND NAM BUFKIT WOULD
INDICATE THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THEY START SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST. PER SATELLITE AND LATEST NAM
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND IN THE GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND DEWPOINTS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST
OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE INITIAL VORT MAX LIFTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES DROP...LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST WED NOV 7 2012

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVERHEAD...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
MCK AND GLD. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...INCREASING WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURED.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM/BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1047 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST WED NOV 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM/BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1139 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL IMPACT PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AT KRSL
WITH BACKING TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT...BEFORE VEERING
MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT
KCNU WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.

KED

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FROM THE WEST AT KRSL/KSLN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TERMINALS. AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WITH 15-20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30KTS. HOWEVER...AT KRSL AND KSLN
THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH AND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE
AREA...THIS HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS AT KRSL TO DECREASE AS OF
11Z. THINK WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT SOUTHERLY AT KRSL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE EVENING APPROACHES THE WINDS WILL BE COME
VARIABLE. SIMILAR THING EXPECTED AT KSLN...BUT TIMING IS DELAYED
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AFTER DARK. DESPITE THE WIND
DIRECTION ISSUES AT KRSL/KSLN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS.

BILLINGS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-FRI:
MAIN FOCUS IS ON MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. GFS
STILL APPEARS TO BE RUNNING MOIST...AND ALTHOUGH NAM EVOLUTION
LOOKS GOOD...ITS ALREADY TOO FAST GIVEN OBSERVED SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS TX. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO RUC THIS MORNING AND THEN
NAM/EC BLEND INTO FRI. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. COMBO OF POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CIRRUS WILL MAKE BOTH MINIMUM/MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TRICKY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.
BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS ON FRI MAY LIMIT WARMUP EAST OF
I-35...WITH BIG WARMUP POSSIBLE ROUGHLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 WITH
LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE WEST/DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAT-SUN:
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT IN THETA-E
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT-SUN AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY END
BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE IN CENTRAL KS AND HAVE DROPPED
MENTION OF SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK SUN FOR NOW. BY SUN MOST OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF I-35...BUT TIMING IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE WITH FAIR AMOUNT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS.
PRECIPITATION MIGHT LINGER IN FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SUSPECT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

MON-WED:
DRY CONDITION LIKELY THIS PERIOD. WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...EXPECT
FAIRLY RAPID RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES. HAVE NUDGED UP INITIALIZATION
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON WED FOR THIS. POTENTIAL IS EVEN
WARMER. HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE FAIR AMOUNT
OF CIRRUS IN THE AREA WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF APPROACHING
300MB SPEED MAXIMUM AND RELATIVELY LOW SUN ANGLE. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ANTICIPATED.

MWM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 56 77 62 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 72 55 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 70 56 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 73 59 75 61 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 61 76 63 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 66 45 81 57 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 70 45 82 58 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 72 52 80 60 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 72 54 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 73 58 76 64 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 71 56 75 60 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 69 55 75 61 / 0 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 72 60 76 62 / 0 0 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

932 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST WED NOV 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

525 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FROM THE WEST AT KRSL/KSLN.

BILLINGS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MWM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 56 77 62 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 70 55 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 69 56 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 72 59 75 61 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 61 76 63 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 65 45 81 57 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 69 45 82 58 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 70 52 80 60 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 70 54 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 73 58 76 64 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 69 56 75 60 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 68 55 75 61 / 0 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 70 60 76 62 / 0 0 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

323 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MWM
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

930 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT...DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WILL PROVIDE
SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
THEN BRING WARM DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT...WITH DETAILS FROM RECENT RAP
AND WRF-NMM RUNS...SHOW A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.

THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO...EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING EASTERN OHIO OR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW A DRY SURFACE LAYER ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
ACCORDINGLY RECENT RAP AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF
DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

BASED ON RECENT GFS AND NAM RELATED GUIDANCE...FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS PROVIDING WARM DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BASED ON RECENT GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE. SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR CAN HAVE SUNDAY HIGHS OF 70.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A STRONG COLD
FRONT...COMING EAST FROM WYOMING...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD UPPER TROUGH WHICH CAN MAINTAIN LINGERING
SCATTERED LAKE-ENHANCED INSTABILITY SHOWERS TUESDAY.

PER RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOL
DOWN TUESDAY TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND...ONLY
RECOVERING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THERE CAN BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT A DRY
SURFACE LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT NO MORE THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

414 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARM
UP INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM SEEM TO BE
RELEGATED TO AREAS TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER CIRRUS BLOW OFF/OUTFLOW
FROM THE SYSTEM IS EMANATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SEMI-
CONTINUOUSLY STILL EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT
PRESENT...AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUOUSLY WARMING
OVER THE AREA...THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARD SLOW DISSIPATION OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS MAY BE ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WHERE A BRIEF OVERLAP OF LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WIND THAT SLOWLY BACKS TOWARD NORTHERLY BY
MORNING MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS UP NORTH OF
I-80. OTHERWISE...THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARD SLOW CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE
A MORE DOMINANT HOLD.

EVEN WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...OUR AREA REMAINS OVER LARGE SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS
SUCH...LAYER TEMPERATURES FAIL TO IMPROVE MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY RUN UP TOWARD 0 TO +1C BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SORT OF IMPROVEMENT WOULD NOT REALLY BE ALL THAT EXCITING EXCEPT
FOR THE FACT THAT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS QUITE A BIT MORE LIKELY
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. WITH INSOLATION AND SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
TURBULENT MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START THEIR SLOW CREEP
UPWARD IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUOUSLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE MEAN AXIS POSITION
AMONGST A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOOK AT THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS
INDICATING IT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY ON SATURDAY. UNTIL THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...INCREASED WARMING WILL BE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW. THAT MEANS...AFTER SATURDAY...OUR TEMPERATURES
MAY WELL BE OFF TO THE RACES.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST...LARGE SCALE FLOW FINALLY TURNS
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON ALL MODELS. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER
WARM ADVECTION GETS STARTED OVER THE AREA...ENOUGH THAT A WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE LOOKS SET TO RIDE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE CWA
RELATIVE TO THE BEST AXIS OF 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION...IT STILL
SEEMS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BY-AND-LARGE OUTSIDE THE
CWA...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

WHILE WARM ADVECTION SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN WARM
FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINFALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ALL LOWERS WILL USHER WARMER AIR IN BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP TOWARD THE +12 TO +14C
RANGE BY SUNDAY AND WITH INCREASED MIXING...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
WELL SURGE INTO THE 65-70F REGION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE COLOSSALLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIES

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS QUITE STRONG ALL THE WAY INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE CROSSED OUR CWA THIS
WEEKEND WILL HAVE PARKED ITSELF JUST OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT
PER ALL GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD CLOSE OFF A SPRAWLING ANTI-
CYCLONE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. .

A FEW INTERESTING TIDE BITS SEEM TO FLOW OUT OF THE FORECAST. BOTH
THE RIDGE/ANTI-CYCLONE JUST OFF SHORE HAVING CLOSED OFF WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY AND THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM LOOK SET TO
INTENSIFY...DEEPEN...AND CLOSE OFF. AS SUCH...THE ENTIRE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSION LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN JUST A TAD. AS A
RESULT...LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY EVENING TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA. A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA SQUARELY IN THE WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES THERE WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOWER PROGRESSION LOOKS
LIKELY TO GIVE THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE
CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED IN THAT AREA AS WELL.

A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL POSITIVE THERMAL
ADVECTION...STRONG ALBEIT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INSOLATION...AS WELL
AS INCREASING MIXING DUE TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW OUR
TEMPERATURES TO RUN UP A BY ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY REAL QUESTION MARK
REVOLVES AROUND TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. AFTER EXAMINING THE
SOLUTIONS AND FAVORING A SLOWER ONE...THIS SHOULD HELP EVERYWHERE
SEE RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS LEAVE US IN THE
WARM AIR FOR ONE EXTRA AFTERNOON. TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TWO
IDEAS...TEMPERATURES WERE CUT AND SKIES WERE CLEARED OUT AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. FRIES

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO KFKL/KDUJ NEAR DAWN THIS MORNING. THIS IS A MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RAP MODEL.

ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH ALONG
WITH CIRRUS BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT KFKL/KDUJ
ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THOUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1258 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARM
UP INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM SEEM TO BE
RELEGATED TO AREAS TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER CIRRUS BLOW OFF/OUTFLOW
FROM THE SYSTEM IS EMANATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SEMI-
CONTINUOUSLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT PRESENT...AND THE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUOUSLY WARMING OVER THE
AREA...THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARD SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WHERE A BRIEF OVERLAP OF LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WIND THAT SLOWLY BACKS TOWARD NORTHERLY BY
MORNING MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS UP NORTH OF
I-80. OTHERWISE...THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARD SLOW CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY FALLING
ALL THE WAY TO THEIR DEWPOINTS...WHICH IS A GOOD THING BECAUSE
THOSE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S AREA WIDE.
REGARDLESS OF THIS...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE BEFORE
SUN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS LAYER RH VALUES FALL OFF A CLIFF ON
THURSDAY AND THE STRATOCUMULUS BURNS OFF NORTH OF I-80 AS
INVERSION-TOP SATURATION IS QUICKLY ERODED BY DAYTIME TURBULENT
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SUCH...THE BEGINNINGS OF THE SLOW
WARMING TREND LOOK TO FINALLY TAKE HOLD BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIES

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL PROMOTE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARM UP.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY WITH MOST SREF MEMBERS SHOWING WARM FRONTAL CLOUD AND
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

CONCUR WITH RECENT NAM AND GFS MOS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES ON SUNDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.

ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE SHOWING COLD FRONT ARRIVING SLOWER FOR
MONDAY...WITH DETERMINISTIC RUNS DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
EVEN MORE. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TIMING BY ABOUT 6 HOURS...WITH PLENTY
OF TIME TO MODIFY THE TIMING.

ALSO BROUGHT UP POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH
PASSAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.
ONCE PRECIPITATION CLEARS ON TUESDAY...WIND DIRECTION APPEARS TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT.

NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MID 50S/MID 30S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH ALONG
WITH CIRRUS BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10KTS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

646 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY... WITH DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS... AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.

THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT... THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

I UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW HOURLY TIMING... THROUGH 7 AM...FOR
THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 615 PM THIS EVENING I AM SEEING SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR CHICAGO AND I EXPECT THAT AREA TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE IT EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD. RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 10000 AND 18000 FT OVER MOST
OF THE CWA BUT NEAR I-94 THE DRY LAYER IS NOT QUIET AS DRY NEAR
I-94 THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A NOSE OF WARMER AND NEARLY SATURATED
AIR BETWEEN 5000 FT AND 10000 FT IN THE SOUNDING NEAR I-94 THAT
WOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WITH EQL TO NEAR
30000 FT FROM NOW TILL AROUND 06Z. SO ADDED TIMING TO THE GRIDS TO
SHOW THE HOURLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION USING THE SREF AND
HRRR AS A BASIS. I PUT THE FOG NEAR ROUTE 10 FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS NAILING DOWN PCPN TRENDS AND
TSTM POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 BASED ON LATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS WHICH
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.

LATEST WRF-NMM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE SRN CWFA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z... WITH
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCE AND VERY LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL THEN SHIFTING
NORTH INTO THE NRN CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL HAVE POPS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING
THE WARM FRONT... WITH COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE DRY WARM SECTOR SWEEPS IN.

HAVE INCLUDED A FOG THREAT IN THE NRN CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST THE SEE THE WARM FRONT PASS THROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW GREATER THAN 90 PCT RH.

HAVE DELAYED POPS A BIT WITH THE COLD FRONT... WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE/DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS
HIGH ONCE THE FRONT DOES ARRIVE... BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING CONSIDERABLY SO OPTED TO REMOVE TSTMS WITH THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM IS FRONT LOADED IN THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME....WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MID AND
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOLID RAIN
CHANCES EXIST ON MONDAY WITH DEEP LIFT RESULTING IN RAIN AROUND A
HALF INCH.

COLD AIR COMES SLAMMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO C AT 12Z MONDAY TO -10C AT 00Z THAT
EVENING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PULLS AWAY WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO GET GOING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT WHERE DELTA T/S WILL
INCREASE TO A SUBSTANTIAL 20 DEG C. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN
MONDAY NIGHT BUT FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING IT SOME. THE WIND
WILL BE FAIRLY STIFF MONDAY EVENING (850MB 270/30KTS) SO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
SPOTS. AS THE TIME FRAME COMES CLOSER WE WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE AMOUNTS...BUT MOISTURE AND THE QUICKNESS IN WHICH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SLIDING OUT ARE NEGATIVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DWINDLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOMES QUICKLY ZONAL ON
TUESDAY AND REMAINS THAT WAY THE REST OF THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS
MODIFY TO MORE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME BETWEEN
-2 AND +2 C. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

AS TYPICAL OF WARM FRONTS WITH THAT FEATURE DEW POINTS IN THE
MOIST AIR HIGHER THEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD AIR
THAT IS BEING OVERRIDDEN... I EXPECT AN SIGNIFICANT AREA OF IFR
CIGS AND VSBY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS
AREA OF THE LOWEST VSBY AND CIGS WILL FOR THE MOST PART NORTH OF
ROUTE 10. AS A RESULT THE TAF SITES NEAR I-96 WILL HAVE LOWER VSBY
AND CIGS BY MORNING THAN WILL THE TAF SITES NEAR I-94. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BEFORE THEY DO AT THE I-96
SITES DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.

AS FOR CONVECTION... THERE IS A AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. AFTER 06Z ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING BUT THE CASE FOR IT IS NOT THAT
STRONG SO I DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

BOTTOM LINE IS CIGS AND VSBY WILL BECOME MVFR BY 09Z AND IFR BY
12Z AT MOST TAF SITE BUT THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STRONG CYCLONE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
MINNESOTA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

WEEKEND RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
BULK OF THIS WILL PROBABLY BE FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS
AND WILL HELP CHIP AWAY FURTHER AT THE SIGNIFICANT DEFICITS CREATED
DURING THE SUMMER DROUGHT.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1247 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS HOUR WILL BE TO SPEED THE
CLEARING TREND...AS INITIAL SHOWER/SPRINKLE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
I295K LIFT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WITH AREA BREAKING INTO "WARM
SECTOR" SOUTHEAST OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
HIGHS...BUT MID 40S SHOULD STILL WORK FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION /LIFT ON 295K SURFACE/ PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING. MORNING INL/GRB/APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO
SHOW A REMNANT DRY WEDGE CENTERED AT H8...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY OF
THE RETURNS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D ARE LIKELY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AS THE DAY GOES
ON...SO EXPECT ANY SPRINKLES TO GIVE WAY TO A DRY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON...AND
LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE /IWD ALREADY CLEARING AT THIS HOUR/...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVERTAKING MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST STUBBORN OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH MOIST PLUME OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN POTENTIALLY IMPACTING MY FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE
DAY GIVEN SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL FLOW.

GOING FORECAST HAD THESE TRENDS WELL-HANDLED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO POP/SKY TIMING. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S EAST /MORE CLOUDS/ TO
AROUND 50 WEST GIVEN T92S WARMING TO +2-4C IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

SOME OF THE SHORTER SCALE FCST MODELS ARE HAVING A BETTER TIME
HANDLING THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR W UPPER MI. UPDATED
THE FCST /POPS/WX/QPF...WITH ASSISTANCE OF THE RUC GUIDANCE WHICH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING TO
OUR NORTH...INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS HAS ALLOWED FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. AS OF
09Z NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN FOUND WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS /850MB TEMPS OF
0-3C OVER N WI EARLY THIS MORNING/...POCKETS OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE
SFC COULD RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AT6 09Z THE ONLY LOCATIONS
SHOWING UP ON THE MESONET BELOW FREEZING WERE PEAVY FALLS AND
RANDVILLE...JUST NW OF IRON MOUNTAIN. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MORE
THAN ANOTHER DEGREE BEFORE SUNRISE. ADDED ISOLATED FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS SMALL AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PRECIP JUST
STARTING TO CROSS THE BOARDER INTO CWA.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FAVORABLE SE FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR...AS MUCH OF THE INITIAL EARLY MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHES ENE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. S-SW FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
3-6C OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM
BARAGA THROUGH AT LEAST MARQUETTE COUNTY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE WHAT THEY WOULD OTHERWISE BE THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM LOWS OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS
FROM THE FAR W CWA TO OUR SE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE PROFILE
REMAINS PRETTY SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. STILL...A COUPLE OF FCST MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP /MAINLY RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN/ OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY.
WILL NOT PLACE THIS IN THE FORECAST QUITE YET...DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LIMITED PRECIP IF IT DOES HAPPEN...AROUND TRACE TO
0.01 INCHES OF LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

FRI INTO SAT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES RESULTING IN
SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...AN
AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO MN. LOW LEVEL ERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES BTWN A WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH FROM WI AND A RIDGE
FROM NRN SASK INTO NRN ONTARIO. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HINTED AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FRIDAY...WITH
MAINLY WEAK ACYC FLOW PREVAILING AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL UPWARD
MOTION...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW THAT ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL DEVELOP.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WOULD BE IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY.

AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO MN AND THE 850 WARM FRONT OVER WI LIFTS
THROUGH UPPER MI...A BAND OF 295K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH UPPER MI BY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOME TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT...AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH MN TO NEAR CYQT THE FOCUS FOR
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 850-700 MB FRONT WILL ALOS LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

SUN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW LIFT TOWARDS JAMES BAY
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES PWAT VALUES TO 1.00-1.25
INCH...250-300 PCT OF NORMAL. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG ALSO
SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THE SLOWER ECMWF WAS PREFERRED WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS.

MON INTO TUE...A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
WNW TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED AS CAA DROPS 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C.
THE GEFS/GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY TUE NIGHT WHICH WOULD END LES POTENTIAL AND BRING

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. PRIMARY
CONCERNS CENTER AROUND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AFTER BEHIND
THE SAGGING COLD FRONT.

UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL
STRATUS AT THIS HOUR...WHICH IS FAR MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS
/VS THE NAM/. GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC GFS/MAV/LAV GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SHOW MVFR CIGS
/AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FOG/ DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW OFF WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...I DON/T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BEFORE THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z...ALTHOUGH ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING.

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH E AS A LOW ACROSS NW MN MOVES TO JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS SLAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW S-SE GUSTS OF 25-30KTS OVER THE E THIRD OF LS. A
RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS LS BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
FRIDAY...WITH FUNNELING NE WINDS ACROSS W LS GUSTING 20-30KTS WOUND
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS MAY NEED TO BE MENTIONED FAR W SATURDAY. A DEEPER LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WILL CROSS LS LATE SATURDAY

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LMZ248-250.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1229 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

SOME OF THE SHORTER SCALE FCST MODELS ARE HAVING A BETTER TIME
HANDLING THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR W UPPER MI. UPDATED
THE FCST /POPS/WX/QPF...WITH ASSISTANCE OF THE RUC GUIDANCE WHICH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LMZ248-250.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

959 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

SOME OF THE SHORTER SCALE FCST MODELS ARE HAVING A BETTER TIME
HANDLING THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR W UPPER MI. UPDATED
THE FCST /POPS/WX/QPF...WITH ASSISTANCE OF THE RUC GUIDANCE WHICH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

INCREASED MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE SW WINDS AT IWD AND SAW SHOULD HELP
KEEP CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22KT RANGE AT IWD AND SAW
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEARING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WNW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIP IN OVERNIGHT...AT
OR BELOW 5KFT...BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WINDS SLOWLY
TURN W AND THEN MAINLY OUT OF A N DIRECTION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT...FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT
BOTH SAW AND IWD...WHILE REMAINING VFR AT CMX GIVEN THE LESS

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LMZ248-250.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

655 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

SOME OF THE SHORTER SCALE FCST MODELS ARE HAVING A BETTER TIME
HANDLING THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR W UPPER MI. UPDATED
THE FCST /POPS/WX/QPF...WITH ASSISTANCE OF THE RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE BUNCH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

958 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG IS ONGOING AT ONEILL ACROSS HOLT COUNTY. THE RAP...NAM
AND HRRR INDICATE WINDS AT THE SFC AND ON UP TO 850 MB WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT BY MORNING PROMOTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER AREAS FROM ONEILL TO
VALENTINE. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL BE ADDED AS WARRANTED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS...COOL MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
ARE THE RECIPE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR ARE GIVING
THE FOG SIGNAL TONIGHT BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OPERATING
ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES...RAPID WEATHER CHANGES
FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE ARE TO BE EXPECTED. THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED PIECEMEAL TONIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL BE
ADDED TO THE FOG ADVISORY AS WARRANTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE FROM A PERSISTENT DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GETS DRAWN WESTWARD UP THE HIGH PLAINS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE. A BROAD AREA OF HT FALLS WERE PRESENT EAST
OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM MONTANA...SW INTO SO CALIFORNIA. HT
FALLS WERE GENERALLY 50 TO 100 GPM WITH 100 GPM FALLS AT ELKO NV. A
NICE MID LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA INTO ERN MT...THEN
ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN NEBRASKA...INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...EASTERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 50S WERE PRESENT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...READINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN KS WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE
IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BEFORE MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH...STALLING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NWRN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
EARLIER TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA
TONIGHT...WILL CONFINE FOG MENTION TO TONIGHTS PERIOD ONLY.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT IN THE WESTERN CWA
AND TRANSITION EAST SATURDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT INDICATION IN THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS OF
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TRAILING PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SAT EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE MID LEVEL FRONT
ARE INDICATING GOOD BANDING POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH. WITHIN THESE BANDS...SHORT
DURATION...MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SAT
EVENING. WITH WARM GROUND CONDITIONS...INITIAL SNOWFALL WILL
MELT...THEN FREEZE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW AND SLICK ROADWAYS...WINDY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS OUR
FIRST DECENT WINTRY SYSTEM OF THE SEASON...AND DUE TO ITS EXPECTED
IMPACTS ON TRAVEL...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON WHERE THE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WILL PLACE THE
ADVISORY...ROUGHLY WEST OF AN OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH LINE.

VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK
SUNDAY...AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOO WARM WITH READINGS MONDAY MORNING...AND CUT
THEM BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS

LONG RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE 50S. THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A
DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE ZONES ATTM...AS SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES
EXIST.

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LOCALLY PATCH FOG ALSO LIFTING. EXPECT THE
CLEARING SKIES TO HOLD LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECTED
KVTN TO SEE ONLY A BRIEF CLEARING...IF ANY AT ALL...THIS EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH SOME MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WARM AIR LIFTS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTED THE RIVER VALLEY TO HELP IN
TRAPPING SOME MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS REDEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CIGS FOR THE KLBF TAF. TOMORROW WILL SEE
THE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LATE MORNING EXPECTED ARRIVAL
FOR KVTN...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SHOULD LIFT THE
LOW IFR CIGS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM
CST /3 PM MST/ SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-022>025-035-036-056- 057-094.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ005>010.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

856 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS...COOL MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
ARE THE RECIPE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR ARE GIVING
THE FOG SIGNAL TONIGHT BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OPERATING
ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES...RAPID WEATHER CHANGES
FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE ARE TO BE EXPECTED. THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED PIECEMEAL TONIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL BE
ADDED TO THE FOG ADVISORY AS WARRANTED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE FROM A PERSISTENT DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GETS DRAWN WESTWARD UP THE HIGH PLAINS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM
CST /3 PM MST/ SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-022>025-035-036-056- 057-094.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ007-010.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

346 AM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND FRIDAY...AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
00Z MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING MUCH WITH EACH OTHER. OPTED TO LEAN
MORE ON CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

CURRENTLY...S/WV TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO ANOTHER LOW OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TROTTERS/BEACH...EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
GARRISON AND INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. WITH SOME EMBEDDED
ELEVATED RETURNS AND WITH SFC OBS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH 12Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AS THE
S/WV CONTINUES EAST. LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS
WELL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. CAA BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY IS COOLING THE THERMAL PROFILE ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE COOLED TO THE LOW/MID 30S. IN ADDITION TO THE CAA...LARGE
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHEAST SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAP MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS THE
BEST STILL AND BRINGS LOW CIGS ACROSS MY ENTIRE AREA BY MID
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP 12-18Z FOR LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND ACROSS THE NORTH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
JET.

MUCH COOLER FOR TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY PRETTY MUCH REMAIN STEADY...MAYBE WARMING A
FEW DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS MAY HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED SOME PLACES. MAINTAINED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST
WHEN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEAD IMPULSE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE INITIAL UPPER FORCING AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE. STILL LOOKS LIKE MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SFC TEMPS WEST
LOW/MID 30S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THE MAIN WINTER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES FRIDAY DAYTIME. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
HEADLINES AS IS...WITH GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST...NEAR
CROSBY. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM BEACH AND DICKINSON...THROUGH GARRISON AND
RUGBY. ANY WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE MODELS HINT AT SOME DRYING AIR ALOFT WORKING
INTO THIS FIRST WAVE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION BLOWING SNOW YET AS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW WET THE SNOW WILL BE AND IF IT CAN EVEN BLOW
AROUND. THE DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

CLOSED MID LEVEL DEVELOPS OVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN INTERIOR WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM TROUGH AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FIRST WAVE MOVES OVER TOP OF STRONG ISENTROPIC AND WEAK
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM WILLISTON TO BOTTINEAU.

MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL WITH HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW
OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AND RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SATURDAY EVENING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW
MAY BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BUT MAY BECOME A PROBLEM NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE THE NEXT WEAKER SYSTEM IN ZONAL FLOW APPROACHES
WESTERN DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER WE ESTABLISH.

AVIATION...
BAND OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ADVANCING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ013-019>023-025-033>037-040-041-043.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY TO NOON CST
/11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>012-017-018-031-032.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>004-009>011-017.

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

941 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE NEXT
GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES. DRIVEN ISENTROPICALLY AND WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN THE ILN
CWA HAS INCREASED JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUDING THUNDER IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD EXPANSION
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE FORCING
AND THE DIMINISHING MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS DO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL OHIO LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

A RATHER SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE TYPICAL COOL EASTERN SPOTS BEHAVING AS USUAL IN
LIGHT FLOW...BUT WINDS STAYING UP IN THE WEST HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS NEAR 50 DEGREES AND NEARLY STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP FORECAST WERE GENERALLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST AND UPWARD IN THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
WITH LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE WEST. WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR ILN/S FA ON
SATURDAY. IN GOOD WAA PATTERN EXPECT 8H TEMPS TO WARM TO +13 TO
+14 DEG C. A WARM DAY FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 15 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

AS THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THE SRLY GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AND WITH SRLY WINDS STAYING UP AT 6 TO 10 MPH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD. EXPECT SAT NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S WEST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST INTO THE MS VLY SUNDAY AFTN
AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT TO SEE AND INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH INCREASING SRLY GRADIENT EXPECT WINDS TO GUST
TO AROUND 25 MPH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONT TO BE 15 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPR 60S NW TO AROUND
70 SOUTHEAST.

NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A LTL SPREAD REGARDING PRECIPITATION TIMING.
ECMWF/SREF SOLNS ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SIDE...WITH THE GENERAL
TRENDS ALSO BEING A LTL FASTER. WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS FASTER SOLN
WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN FORCING/STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND A NARROW AXIS OF SFC
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEGREES...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER. MILD TEMPS TO CONT WITH SUN NIGHTS LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LACK OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND VIGOROUS WIND
FIELDS...SO WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT WILL EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHED BY A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS BACK INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY.

AFTER AN EARLY HIGH IN THE 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN A CHILLY AIRMASS. A SLIGHT REBOUND TO THE LOWER 50S MAY OCCUR BY
NEXT FRIDAY IN A REGIME OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A REGIME OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOWEST CLOUDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
RANGE...BUT STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT DAYTON AND
COLUMBUS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND WHILE
MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT COLUMBUS COULD BE IMPACTED NEAR 04Z.

WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. SSW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

429 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN THAT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION TO BEGIN BUILDING EAST INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO SLIDE JUST TO OUR EAST
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SRLY. MSTR BETWEEN
900-850MB LOCATED TO OUR WEST OVER INDIANA BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
W CNTRL OHIO. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND HOW THESE CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT ILN/S FA. THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL BECOMES WESTERLY AROUND 15
KTS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ILN/S WESTERN FA EARLY THIS EVENING. IN WAA PATTERN EXPECT A
GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS AS THEY PUSH EAST.
LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS SOLN BRINGING THE BEST COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS INTO WEST CNTRL OHIO THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISHING
THEM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN. EXPECT LOWS TO BE A LTL MILDER
THAN THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM UPPER 20S NE TO THE LOWER/MID 30S
SW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH ONLY THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
UNDER WAA AND SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LAT FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS AND
SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SW.

GOOD WAA ON SATURDAY WITH THINNING CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS. 8H TEMPS WARM UP TO BETWEEN +13 AD +14 DEG
C. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LKLY SAT NIGHT. UNDER CONTD
SRLY FLOW MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S E TO THE UPPER 40S W.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM...
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A REGIME OF MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS.

MODELS INDICATE A RATHER RAPID EXIT FOR THE FRONT...WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING ON TUESDAY. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS ACROSS OHIO ON A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY DURING THE
TRANSITION TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. READINGS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S...WITH A RISE TO AROUND 50
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH.

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE
FORMING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
A STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD ADVECT EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
EROSION/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ON THE EDGES OF
THIS DECK...SO IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN AS A
SOLID DECK AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT KDAY FOR THE EVENING HOURS WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE
AREA CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THE TAFS.

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE AT KLUK
DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG. HAVE PLACED BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS IN THE
TAF. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

428 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION TO BEGIN BUILDING EAST INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO SLIDE JUST TO OUR EAST
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SRLY. MSTR BETWEEN
900-850MB LOCATED TO OUR WEST OVER INDIANA BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
W CNTRL OHIO. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND HOW THESE CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT ILN/S FA. THE FLOW AT THIS LEVEL BECOMES WESTERLY AROUND 15
KTS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ILN/S WESTERN FA EARLY THIS EVENING. IN WAA PATTERN EXPECT A
GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS AS THEY PUSH EAST.
LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS SOLN BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS INTO S CNTRL OHIO THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISHING THEM.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN. EXPECT LOWS TO BE A LTL MILDER THAN THIS
MORNING...RANGING FROM UPPER 20S NE TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SW.

SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LKLY SAT NIGHT. UNDER CONTD
SRLY FLOW MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S E TO THE UPPER 40S W.

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE AT KLUK
DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG. HAVE PLACED BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS IN THE
TAF. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

920 AM PST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM
NORTHERN OREGON WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE
WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOST NOTABLE FOR HOW COLD IT IS,
RATHER THAN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL PRODUCE. TYPICAL
AMOUNTS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS
AROUND CRATER LAKE.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET TODAY THEN FALL TO
AROUND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL
BE HOW MUCH TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE AND DEFORMATION ZONE WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.

BROAD, BUT WEAK RIDGING IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
FLYING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WE`LL
SEE A TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
SO, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE
SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET BY THURSDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
COAST. WEST SIDE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS LOW AS 1500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA/-SHSN WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY TO SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BECOME
PREVALENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST SIDE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT VALLEY
FLOORS TODAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR BUT LOCAL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
SPILDE/KEENE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM PST THU NOV 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...REPRESENTING A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR...IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD TOPS
ARE COOLING...SUGGESTING A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE AND THE FIRST
SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR RETURNS AT THE
COAST. LATEST RAP MODEL DEPICTS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE
COAST BY 8AM AND THEN MOVING INLAND TO JACKSON COUNTY BY 11AM.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 3000 FEET JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST...AND SHOULD BE ABOUT 2000 FEET AS THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVES IN. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD IMPACT ROADWAYS
LIKE INTERSTATE 5 AT SEXTON SUMMIT...AND PERHAPS HAYES HILL.

THIS AFTERNOON WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
SISKIYOU SUMMIT WHERE ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL AND ALLOW FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADWAYS. AFTER SUNSET...AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES COOL AND SHOWERS CONTINUE...IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS ARE
MORE LIKELY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT WSWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY ABOVE 1500 FEET AND THE SISKIYOUS AND
CASCADES...TO INCLUDE I-5 AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT AND HWY 140 AT LAKE OF
THE WOODS. EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RIVAL
SIGNIFICANT MIDWINTER STORMS...ONLY AMOUNTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...THE SHARP TRANSITION TO LOW SNOW LEVELS AND THE EARLY
SEASON NATURE OF THIS STORM WARRANTED A PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE ROGUE VALLEY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME
SNOWFLAKES TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH
TO LOWER ROAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY SNOW SHOULD MELT
QUICKLY ON ROADWAYS.

CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL EAST OF THE CASCADES IS LOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE RECENT MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD FROM LITTLE SNOW TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE
MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ANY CASE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AGAIN AT WSWMFR...FOR
MOST PLACES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOLKS COULD GO
TO SLEEP TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WAKE UP TO
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE ON FRIDAY COULD GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
WEST OF THE CASCADES AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THAT AREA AND
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVELS...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. /KEENE

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR ORZ027-028.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ080.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

351 AM PST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...REPRESENTING A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR...IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD TOPS
ARE COOLING...SUGGESTING A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE AND THE FIRST
SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR RETURNS AT THE
COAST. LATEST RAP MODEL DEPICTS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE
COAST BY 8AM AND THEN MOVING INLAND TO JACKSON COUNTY BY 11AM.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 3000 FEET JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST...AND SHOULD BE ABOUT 2000 FEET AS THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVES IN. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD IMPACT ROADWAYS
LIKE INTERSTATE 5 AT SEXTON SUMMIT...AND PERHAPS HAYES HILL.

.AVIATION...A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT FLYING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WE`LL
SEE A TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
SO, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE
SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET BY THURSDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
COAST. WEST SIDE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS LOW AS 1500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA/-SHSN WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY TO SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BECOME
PREVALENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST SIDE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT VALLEY FLOORS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR BUT LOCAL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
SPILDE/KEENE

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR ORZ027-028.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR CAZ080.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

925 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 925 PM CST/
HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN
CWA...THOUGH MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING OVER THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT. ALSO SEEING DENSE FOG
DEVELOP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED AREAS OF FOG INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
FOR LATER TONIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK...FALLING ONLY VERY SLOWLY WITH CLOUDS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH OUR EAST...AND LOWS IN THE 40S STILL LOOKS GOOD.
MINOR UPDATES OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 338 PM CST/
COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 LOCKED IN THE CLOUDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH MAY SEE THIS STRATUS ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THEM FOR A
PERIOD TONIGHT. EITHER WAY STILL EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO REFORM
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
AREAS OF FOG ALSO LIKELY. DRIZZLE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR
NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
TONIGHT AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND MOISTURE SHALLOW. LOWS WONT DROP
TOO MUCH...AS THE CLOUDS...A BREEZE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL KEEP THEM IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT DISSIPATING THE STRATUS. THUS IT
SHOULD BE QUITE THE WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MEAN WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS. MAY EVEN END UP CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR WEST BY AROUND NOON...APPROACH INTERSTATE 29
BY MID AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TOTAL PRECIP FROM
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND A QUARTER TO ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST...HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
EVENING.

OTHER THINGS OF NOTE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND SNOW BEHIND IT. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL
ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG CAPPING LOOKS PREVALENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THE BEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS POST FRONTAL FOR US...WITH POSSIBLY AN AREA OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUPLE
COUNTIES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND CLIP OUR AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. ANY PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE...WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES NOTED
ON SOUNDINGS...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WINDS. ANY SNOW THREAT
WILL BE AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES ACROSS...AS THE BEST DYNAMICAL
LIFT STAYS TO OUR NORTHWEST. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH
OF THE SNOW STAYS TO OUR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT. THUS
ONLY THINKING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. /CHENARD

SUNDAY BY FAR THE QUIETER DAY OF THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER WAVE
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA. WILL HANG ONTO SOME SMALL POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONT...
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTH OUT WESTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE DECENT CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AS
TRAILING WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SHARPLY COLDER THAN SATURDAY...THOUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STRONG MIXING IN POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS...THINK TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH WILL BE ABLE TO
RECOVER A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S...
WHILE SOUTHEAST AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL
FEEL MORE RAW THOUGH...AS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS PUSH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE TEENS MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS STAY UP IN CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY
BOTTOMING OUT...THOUGH LOWS IN THE TEENS STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
COLD AIR MASS.

UPPER TROUGH EXITS OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THEN DOMINATING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL ON MONDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL PIVOT TO A MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION...WITH
HIGHS FROM MID-UPPER 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO LOWER 30S THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY SNOWFALL FROM
THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM COULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT IN THE WEST...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY.

EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS 925MB TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 5-10C
RANGE AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WAVE KICKING OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. 09/12Z RUN OF ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THIS THAN ITS 09/00Z COUNTERPART...AND THAN THE 09/12Z
GFS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AT THIS RANGE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING STATUS RANGING FROM LIFR TO MVFR...WHICH IS SLOWLY
ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST. RAP AND HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS
THE BEST...ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY A LITTLE TO FAST WITH THE CLEARING.
THUS EXPECT CLEARING TO REACH KFSD THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF
TIME...WITH KHON LIKELY STAYING STUCK IN THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER AREA OF
STRATUS WILL REFORM THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING. THUS CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE BY
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME LIFR
ONCE AGAIN SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP MIX OUT THE
STRATUS QUICKER TOMORROW...WITH IT BEGINNING TO LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BY 18Z. /CHENARD

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

356 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 356 PM CST/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRATUS DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
DIFFERENTLY. LOOKS LIKE THE NAM IS DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOO
MUCH TONIGHT...WHICH ACTS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AT BAY. FEEL LIKE
SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE RAP SOLUTION IS MOST LIKELY...WHERE THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
STRATUS LOCKED IN AND SPREADING SOUTH. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH THE CLOUDS AND
BREEZE PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

ON FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB...ALLOWING ANOTHER STRATUS DECK TO
QUICKLY FORM. THUS THINK MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS CLOUDY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A BIT OF
MORNING SUN. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA POSSIBLY SEEING
SOME DRIZZLE BY MID AFTERNOON AS WE SEE WEAK LIFT IN THE NEARLY
SATURATED 0-1 KM LAYER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL PRETTY LOW ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM IS A LOT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH STRATUS
FORMATION...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSEST
TO THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THINGS BEST AT
THE CURRENT TIME. THUS WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. IF A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM PANS OUT RESULTING IN A
LONGER PERIOD OF SUN...HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER...AND
IF THE CLOUDS STAY LOCKED IN EVEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. /CHENARD

COMPLICATED FORECAST ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WELL
ADVERTISED SURFACE LOW AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ALL
MODELS KEEPING A LOW CLOUD DECK IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPER MOIST LAYER THAN THE NAM...WHICH
POINTS TO A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG/MIST INSTEAD. HAVE
OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER OVERNIGHT. LOWER
VISIBILITIES OR MIST WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS AREA AS WELL...BUT
DO NOT THINK THE FOG WILL BE DENSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING A VERY MILD DAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS OUR EAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
TAKES OVER. COULD SEE SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THIS WARM
SECTOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
WOULD BRING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
THE RAIN SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT FINALLY KICKS THROUGH OUR EASTERN HALF BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SPREADING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND IT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
QUICKLY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO A MIX AND THEN
ENTIRELY SNOW BY DAYBREAK.

FOR EARLY SUNDAY...THE LINGERING MID LEVEL EXITS TO OUR EAST WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST
IN EXITING THE WAVE WITH THE BULK OF THE EVENT OVER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A LINGERING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MID DAY. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
BE OVER AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A CHANCE FOR THE MORNING.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WHILE NORTHWEST IOWA CAN EXPECT A
HALF INCH OR LESS. VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

IN THE EXTENDED...QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID
WEEK AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL REMAIN COLD IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE 40S BY MID WEEK. DID DROP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE ALLBLEND ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING
WINDS WOULD LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOWERING
CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS. TEND
TO BELIEVE THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGING IN THE STRATUS FROM
THE NORTH...WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO HURON BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SIOUX
FALLS BY MIDNIGHT AND SIOUX CITY A FEW HOURS LATER. THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE POORLY REPRESENTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EVOLUTION AND THUS WERE DISCARDED AT THIS TIME. BUT STILL SOMETHING
TO WATCH...AS MVFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST. THINK THAT EVEN A FEW HOURS OF IFR IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THUS INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES TONIGHT. /CHENARD

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

1025 PM MST WED NOV 7 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM MST WED NOV 7 2012/

00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MT. 3-5MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH 21Z RAP. 21Z RAP HAS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...SO WILL DO AN EARLY UPDATE TO
ADDRESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM MST WED NOV 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA HAS PUSHED HIGHS INTO THE 70S OVER MANY LOCATIONS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE CTRL CONUS...WITH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM COLORADO/NEW MEXICO INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WHILE COOL FRONT SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSER TO AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER LOW SLIDING OVER THE
WEST COAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WEAK WAVE SLIDING AHEAD OF THE LOW
CROSSES THE AREA LATE IN THE EVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NWRN SD...THOUGH
CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.

FOR FRIDAY...UPPER LOW/TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH PRECIP SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH/WEST...THOUGH SOME PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA WITH
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NWRN CWA IN THE
EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR PRECIP TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER
NWRN/W CTRL SD WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT...CHANGING TO SNOW AS COOLER
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN AS COLD FRONT PUSHES IN LATE.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROF IS GENERALLY PROGGED
TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN WY FRIDAY...PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE WELL
EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRAG MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING ON SATURDAY. A BAND OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE THE
BULK OF THE PCPN...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY SLEET...LOOKS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD DURING THE
TRANSITION. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO
BE SIGNIFICANT FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH UP TO AN INCH OVER FAR
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. PCPN WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH MILDER AIR
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM...WFO UNR
AVIATION...HELGESON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1000 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT
SNAKING ITS WAY ACROSS KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. AN 850MB DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE CONVERGENCE IS HELPING TO CREATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE MOVED ON INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRECIP AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WARM ADVECTION WILL
RAMP UP FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. CURRENT LLJ OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/SE LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ILLINOIS WILL BYPASS THE STATE AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A SECONDARY AND
STRONGER LLJ TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING FOR OUR MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES TO
ARRIVE. OPERATIONAL MODELS THIS MORNING ARE DELAYING PRECIP CHANCES
AS IT LOOKS LIKE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT THIS EVENING WILL GO TOWARDS
TRYING TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
AS A RESULT. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER. SHOULD ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP
ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES AS WELL. LOOKED AT THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT
AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL CAPPING AROUND 8KFT SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL STAY MILD AND RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL INCREASE POP CHANCES
FOR THE MORNING INTO THE LIKELY/DEFINITE RANGE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO REMAIN AN ISSUE UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING CAN INCREASE THE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD BY LATE MORNING. MOST OF THE FORCING
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE U.P. BORDER BY MID-AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
END THE WIDESPREAD SHOWER THREAT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LAG
BEHIND A BIT AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST THERE...AND REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. CAPPING ALSO DIMINISHES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE LIGHHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME
FOG. SURFACE WAVE MOVING NORTH ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD RAINFALL SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BLUSTERY AND COLDER MONDAY
WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
WINDS APPEAR TOO WESTERLY FOR LAKE EFFECT IN NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. DRY AND COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL AND A SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE SO LEFT IT DRY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL FROM CURRENT
MVFR READINGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...AND
RADAR CONFIRMS TREND. ONCE SHOWERS ARRIVE...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LIFR RANGE. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
MID-DAY SATURDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

JKL
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES MAY BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LARGE WAVES
POSSIBLE FOLLOWING IT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

618 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NORTH OF WARM FRONT THIS
EVE. FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SHOWER/DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. ONCE SHOWERS ARRIVE...CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LIFR RANGE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.

JKL
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1135 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
314 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE RIDGE WAS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /BELOW 900 MB/
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE 07.12Z GFS
AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST THAT AS THE WINDS PICK UP ON WESTERN SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE...THE MOISTURE LIFTS AND EVENTUALLY MIXES OUT AS
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY THINNER. THESE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS WILL
INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS
EVENING...AND SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE LATEST RAP IS INSISTENT THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING VERY LITTLE
CLOUDS ON THIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...WENT ALONG WITH
THE GFS AND NAM/WRF. HOWEVER A BIT CONCERNED THAT THAT THE TIME OF
DAY WOULD FAVOR THE RAP SOLUTION. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES TOO COLD.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND DRY
AIR /290-300K CONDENSATION DEFICITS GREATER THAN 100 MB/ BEING
ADVECTED OFF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF WESTERN UNITED STATES
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS WAVES APPROACHES WEAK TO MODERATE
290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE CONDENSATION
DEFICITS SLOWLY DROP FROM OVER 100 MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 20 TO
50 MBS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE 850 MB
TRANSPORT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/WRF IS THE SLOWEST AT SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...IT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT GETS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE
GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER OUR
AREA. SINCE THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAS REMAINED INCONSISTENT...
KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM/WRF SUGGESTING MLCAPES WILL UP TO 400 J/KG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
314 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012

ON SATURDAY...THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE
THIS IS THE CASE...THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THE
NAM/WRF AND GEM HAVE THE STRONGEST CAP...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER CAP WHICH ALLOWS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHPUT THE DAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS TIME PERIOD...JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WITH NO PRECIPITATION...THE MLCAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 600 J/KG IN
THE NAM/WRF. MEANWHILE THE PRECIPITATION THE GFS AND ECMWF LIMITS
THE MLCAPES TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE
IN ALL 3 MODELS FOR MINI SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER A
MAJORITY OF THIS SHEAR IS LOCATED IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT BECOME SURFACE BASED...THESE STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH AND AS A RESULT THEY
WOULD NOT HAVE ADEQUATE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE THEMSELVES INTO MINI
SUPERCELLS.

THE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY IS HOW WARM THE AREA WILL GET.
850 MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NAM/WRF HAS LITTLE CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH
ALLOWS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE CLOUD COVER AND ITS TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY
STAYED WITH THE ALL BLEND WHICH HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG PV ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS...KEPT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE 55 TO 74 RANGE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30S. SOUNDINGS
ALOFT SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ICE CRYSTALS BEING
INTRODUCED FROM ALOFT...THUS...SOME SNOW STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THIS RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION
OCCURS.

FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE 07.12Z MODELS
ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS AT MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. WANTED TO FOLLOW THEM...BUT COULD
NOT GET ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO GO AWAY FROM THE ALL BLEND MODEL.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1135 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012

FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS ON CLEARING STRATUS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BACK EDGE OF AN HIGHER END MVFR/LOWER END VFR DECK
NOW APPROACHING KRST. MODELS CONSISTENT IN TAKING THIS BACK EDGE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS PICK UP. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME ACCELERATION. EXPECT THE LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT
AROUND 07Z AT KRST AND 09Z AT KLSE. AFTER THAT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO BEGIN AROUND 13Z-
15Z. WOULD EXPECT SOME GUSTS AT KRST IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
AND ONLY 15 TO 18 KNOTS AT KLSE. THESE WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
200 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

707 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FOG OVER THE NEBRASKA HANDLE
TONIGHT. STATUS DECK CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADVANCING WESTWARD. HRRR MODEL
SHOWING LOW CIGS PUSHING TO THE WYOMING BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE SAME UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW. COULD POSSIBLE SEE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG. LOW CIGS AND FOG
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE FOG.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
SHOULD TEMPERATURES DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...ROAD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TONIGHT SUCH THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS NOT A CONCERN.

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...UPDATE...
ADDED FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO NEBRASKA TAF SITE FOR TONIGHT INTO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND CENTRAL
NE IS MOVING WESTWARD AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS
STATUS DECK WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.

SNOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED. AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREDOMINATELY IFR TO MVFR CIGS SATURDAY BUT
SKIES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND DEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
TO AN ALLIANCE TO CHEYENNE LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...PRODUCING MVFR AND
IFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT...VFR EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE
LINE. SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LINCOLN NEBRASKA
BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED ACROSS TAF SITES.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
KNOTS ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING
IFR AND MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. RUBIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH OVER
PARTS OF CARBON COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THAT PART OF THE CWA UNTIL 01Z.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE FEATURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BY 00Z MONDAY
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD CLOSED LOW. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...A
300 MB JET WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY...
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WERE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
UTAH AND FAR WESTERN WYOMING DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THAT 300 MB
JET. ALSO MOVING OVER THE CWA WILL BE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE CWA SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PASSES. COLD SURFACE AIR WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RESULT WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WELL AS SNOW. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. GARCIA METHOD SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THAT TIME. THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MORE WESTERLY WIND ALOFT TO REDUCE
THE SNOWFALL RATES. THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PARTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WEST PART OF THE CWA FROM
OROGRAPHICS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...THUS DRY IN OUR COUNTIES DUE
TO DOWNWARD MOTION AND DECREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS...THUS PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
CARBON...ALBANY AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AND OVER WESTERN LARAMIE AND
PLATTE COUNTIES.

MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NORTHWEST INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP...AND THUS PRODUCING A WARMING TREND WITH MAXIMA IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S...DESPITE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY.

TUESDAY...ZONAL...WEST TO EAST FLOW...ALOFT ENSUES...AIDING EVEN
MORE IN A WARMING TREND DUE TO BETTER KATABATIC WARMING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL AS USUAL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON OPACITY OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY IS KEY FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR
5670 METERS...AND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND. IT APPEARS THE MORE OPAQUE MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE DIRTY
RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND NORTHWEST WYOMING...WITH SOME OF THESE
MORE OPAQUE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

THURSDAY...NEXT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM UTAH AND COLORADO...SPREADING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA...THUS THE SUBSIDENT SECTOR ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WILL KEEP
IT DRY...ASIDE FROM ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
THROUGH 01Z...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AT RAWLINS. THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING NEAR THERMOPOLIS...PRODUCING
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD AND STRETCHING FROM
CHADRON TO FORT COLLINS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

AFTER 04Z...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AT RAWLINS
PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 15Z...WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SCATTERED
SHOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR AT RAWLINS TAF WITH VFR AT OTHER
SITES.

FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST PART OF
THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET. THEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THAT
TIME. DRIER...WARMER AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR WYZ112-WYZ114.
NE...NONE.

UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...LIEBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

328 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...H100-H70 HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN RANGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR
CENTRAL FL. FRI EVNG RAOBS SHOW THE RIDGE MAINTAINING A VERY
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
HAS DECREASED TO 15-20C. DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW HAS PUSHED PWAT VALUES
BACK ABV 0.7" AT KMFL...READINGS STILL HOLDING BTWN 0.3"-0.4" AT
KJAX/KTBW SITES...RESPECTIVELY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TIGHT H100-H85 RH GRADIENT THAT WAS
OVER THE SE FL COAST EARLY FRI MORNING NOW LIES IMMEDIATELY SE OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OCNL BKN DECKS OF MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE
S OF THE CAPE INDICATIVE OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THE RH GRADIENT
SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE NW TO ALLOW SFC DEWPOINT READINGS TO
RECOVER TO THE U40S/L50S OVER THE INTERIOR...L/M50S ALONG THE COAST.

AFT A COOL START...THE DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE M70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY HOLD IN THE L70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST N OF THE CAPE DUE TO THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE E/NE IN THE PREDAWN HRS AS THE
RIDGE CENTER MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SFC/LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO KEEP MIN TEMPS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE L/M60S...M/U50S OVER THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN AN
UPTICK IN EASTERLY FLOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAYTIME. NOT RULING OUT A STRAY COASTAL SHOWER BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP BELOW ANY MENTIONABLE VALUES. SKIES AVERAGING
PARTLY CLOUDY BUT SOME PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST FROM MARINE LAYER STRATOCU PUSHING
ONSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS DUE TO AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 80/LOWER 80S INLAND BUT ONSHORE BREEZES MODERATING
MAXES TO MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR 60/LOWER
60S WELL INLAND AND MID/UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

MON-FRI...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE AS MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH IT WILL BE
LACKING. HAVE REDUCED POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ON TUES. TEMPS
QUICKLY MODERATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS
IT BUILDS TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. PERSISTENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
EXPECTED. HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE VALUES MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED FINE TUNING AS SITUATION COMES BETTER
INTO FOCUS. DAYTIME HIGHS MON/TUE REACHING LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 COAST JUST A TOUCH LOWER MID TO LATE WEEK...ESP
NEAR THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY IN THE 60S BUT A FEW
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

.AVIATION...THRU 11/12Z...VFR ALL SITES...S OF KTIX-KISM CIGS BTWN
FL040-060.

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU
EARLY SUN MORNING. THE N/NE FETCH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM S FL TO THE NC OUTER BANKS AND WILL MAINTAIN A 3-4FT
SWELL OVER THE LCL ATLC. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE ENE BY
DAYBREAK SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ALLOWS THE LCL PGRAD TO TIGHTEN. SEAS 3-5FT THRU
MIDDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 4-6FT THRU MIDNIGHT...DOMINANT
PDS 10-12SECS TODAY...DECREASING TO 9-11SEC TONIGHT.

SUN-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAINING GENERALLY POOR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRESHENING EASTERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RUNNING
AROUND HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. A BRIEF DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS MON INTO
TUE AS HIGH WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE...SEA
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND LONG NELY FETCH
WILL ALLOW SWELLS TO BUILD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY-TONIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BLANKETING
THE ERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE
H90-H80 LYR. THIS WILL CAPPING MIXING HEIGHTS BTWN 4000-4500FT. FLOW
THRU THE MIXING LYR HAS VEERED TO THE N/NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST.

AFTN RH READINGS MAY DIP BLO 35PCT FOR AN HR OR TWO N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...BUT LONG DURATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST ERC VALUES
REMAIN LARGELY IN THE M/U20S...WELL BLO THE THRESHOLD OF 35 TO
REQUIRE SPECIAL PRODUCTS. WITH SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME E/NE TODAY...OVERALL FIRE WX DANGER WILL BE LARGELY MUTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 61 78 64 / 0 0 10 0
MCO 76 59 81 62 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 74 65 79 67 / 0 0 10 0
VRB 76 65 79 68 / 0 0 10 0
LEE 76 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 76 59 81 62 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 77 59 81 62 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 75 65 78 68 / 0 0 10 0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....GLITTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1210 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

FOG TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST HAS EXPANDED
RAPIDLY AND BECOME DENSE IN AND ALONG THE REPUBLICAN RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH FOG STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE...THINK LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. DENSE FOG MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I 70...BUT WITH WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KTS...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE
LONG LASTING IN THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP IT COOL AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EC
RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR
TO WORK WITH...SO MAINLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN...WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO/ADJACENT
PARTS OF NW KS AND SW NB WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IN THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON TIMING WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND A RETURN TO DRY/COOL
CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

DENSE FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS HAS DEVELOPED AT MCCOOK...AND WITH
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN ITR AND GLD THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FRONT REACHES AREA. AFTER THE
FOG CLEARS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING DIRT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT GLD WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS
POSSIBLE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS AREA AROUND
00Z...BRINGING A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ002>004.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COZ091-092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ081.

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1052 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ002>004.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ081.

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

258 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CREST OVER THE
STATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN QUEBEC WILL BRING
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE AREA
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S IN NORTHERN
ZONES AND THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F DOWN EAST. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 25 KTS FOR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS SOME H925 MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. RUC SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE BETTER THAN OTHER NWP. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND ALLOWS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUANDARY WILL BE WHEN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THICKEN AND STOP
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GEMS AND
GMOS THAT GIVES UPPER TEENS FOR NORTHERN ZONES. A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
UPPER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER DOWN EAST AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO
MID 20S EXCEPT SOME READINGS CLOSER TO 30F ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE
WARM FRONT SO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH WOODS IN THE
AM HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD ANY OCCUR.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK SUN NIGHT, BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

INTERESTING DAY IN STORE ON MONDAY. EXTRAORDINARILY WARM AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ABOUT 2000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. IF THIS AIR WERE TO MIX DOWN, WE WOULD BE
LOOKING AT ALL TIME RECORD WARM NOVEMBER TEMPS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
NOT HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE WEAK NOVEMBER SUNSHINE AND BECAUSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
MILD (BUT NOT QUITE RECORD WARM) TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY, WITH PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN, PERHAPS VERY BRIEFING CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING TUE EVENING. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR
AVERAGE AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
THU NIGHT. THEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON A PARTIAL BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE, BUT EVEN IF WE DO SEE A BRIEF BREAKDOWN, NO BIG SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING NORTH OF
HUL...OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT WITH PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL HOLD THE COURSE ON THE SCA WITH A MIDDAY END TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM
CURRENT READINGS IN THE COMING HOURS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WILL CAUSE THESE WINDS TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM:
SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MCW/FOISY
MARINE...MCW/FOISY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

101 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY DAY
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM QUEBEC. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. AM ALSO LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC DEPICTION
OF H925 MOISTURE...BRINGING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THE MORNING.

1000 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVE WILL RAPIDLY
BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER MAINE BY SAT EVE. A MUCH DRIER AND
MODESTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT PRODUCED RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRECIPITABLE H20 IS NOW
0.28" (OR ABOUT ONE HALF OF WHAT IT WAS AT 12Z). THE STRONGER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO SHOWS UP NICELY WITH 50 KT WIND AT 700
MILLIBARS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF
CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE VFR WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY IN THE 3-5 K FT AGL RANGE...BUT THERE
ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MAKE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND NORTH AND SHOW A SLOWER
COOLING TREND IN THE WEST THROUGH 08Z...BUT OTHERWISE THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THE STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER THE NORTH BUT REACH THE LOW 40S
DOWNEAST AS DRY AIR KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME THIN HIGH WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY BRING TO STRAY INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE
DAY WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET THRU THE SHORT TERM PD... AFTER A CHILLY AND
BRISK BUT DRY DAY ON SAT...WNDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY SAT EVE AS
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CAN SEWRD INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND SAT AFTN...QUICKLY BUILDS EWRD CRESTING OUR AREA LATER
SAT NGT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CLEAR BUT COLD NGT ACROSS
THE FA W/ FCST LOWS TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS FAR N TO THE UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. A STRONG WARM FRONT DVLPG SW OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS FROM THE SW LATER SAT NGT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL
SPCLY SRN/WRN AREAS. THIS WARM FRONT IS FCST TO LIFT NE UP ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUN W/ CLDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN FROM SW-NE
THRU THE AFTN HRS. AIRMASS INITIALLY QUITE DRY SO WILL BE TUF TO
GENERATE MUCH OVERRUNNING PRECIP BUT DO EXPECT SOME LGT STRATIFORM
PRECIP TO BREAK OUT SPCLY FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS BY SUN AFTN AND
WILL CONT SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS THESE AREAS. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
DVLP COULD INITIALLY FALL AS A LITTLE LGT FZRA/SNOW AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT IF IT OCCURS AT ALL... THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE OF
THE AREA BY SUN NGT W/ A MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SRLY
FLOW TO DVLP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP
VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL SUN NGT INTO MON AM AS STRONG WAA COMMENCES
AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN OUR HRLY TEMPS. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR SOME LOWER CLDS DVLPG FROM S-N LATER SUN NGT INTO
MON...OTHERWISE MON LOOKS VERY WARM BUT DRY W/ SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING MID 50S N AND LOWER 60S S. THE EURO EXTENDED MOS HAS HAD A
BIT BETTER TRACK RECORD THESE SCENARIOS SO LEANED THIS WAY FOR MON
HIGHS W/ NIL POPS EXPECTED...
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FLORIDA TO NEW BRUNSWICK
WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER ALABAMA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE SECOND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MAINE. THE GFS
MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS TH REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. IT SHOWS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY...BUT
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE ECMWF SHOW THE SAME LOW
STARTING AROUND 6Z ON FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS WEAK COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MAINE...AND WELL
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO GENERALLY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS THOUGH IT
DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF IT DOES INDICATE
THAT THERE WILL BE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

LOADED THE GMOS...REPOPULATED THE SKY/POP GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF
GFS/ECMWF. GMOS NOT REFLECTIVE OF EITHER MODEL. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 25 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1AM UPDATE...
WILL GO FOR MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT LOWEST CIGS NEAR FL020 AND CONDITIONS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

NEAR TERM UPDATED AT 1000 PM: MOSTLY VFR AT AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH SAT. CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS MAINLY 3-5 K FT AGL MAY AFFECT
THE TERMINALS AT KCAR AND KPQI AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. HIGH END MVFR
CEILINGS AT KFVE THROUGH 08Z.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU SUN AT ALL TAF SITES... CLDS
WILL THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW-NE ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD EVEN BE SOME VRY LGT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NRN SITES BY SUN AFTN BUT EXPECT CIGS/VSBY
TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. BY SUN NGT...W/ THE WARM FRONT NE OF
THE REGION...A WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SRLY FLOW OVERSPREADS
THE AREA W/ THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER STRATUS DVLPG OUR SRN
SITES. BETTER CHCS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MON NGT INTO TUE AS THIS SRLY FLOW CONTS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN LATER TUE
THRU WED AS THIS COLD FRONT MVS E OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE REGION W/ COLDER AND DRIER AIR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU MON
THO COULD APPROACH MARGINAL SCA CONDS LATE MON AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW
MARINE...MCW/KHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1208 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012