Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/07/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 223 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE
HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 750 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH MIXED CAPE VALUES CONSIDERABLY LOWER. BAND OF PRE-
FRONTAL -RA CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA BUT NO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF NOTE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THUS
FAR. INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...FEEL BY THE TIME STRONG OR
SEVERE COULD BE REALIZED...BEST LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SCALE BACK THE HWO AND ONGOING
GRAPHICAST ONCE DEVELOPING LINE SHIFTS EAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY SHORT TERM DAY WITH FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS AS HIGH CENTERED OVER CANADA HAS ENOUGH WEAK RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE OUR AREA TO PRODUCE A POP FREE DAY. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL DURING THE DAY HAS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKES A RAPID RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE AS THEIR ARRIVAL PRIOR TO
SUNSET WILL RESULT IN MINS TUESDAY MORNING NOT REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL AS PRECIP BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA IN EARNEST JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
ROTATES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. NAM12 IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DYNAMICALLY COOLING THE COLUMN...TAKING THE 850MB
TEMP FROM +2C TO -1C IN A MATTER OF TWO HOURS. NOT COMPLETELY OUR
OF THE QUESTION WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO SEE THIS TYPE OF
COOLING ALOFT...BUT JUST CANNOT SEEM TO GET SURFACE TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS IS TRUE
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP FORECAST ALL LIQUID THIS RUN
BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT CYCLES.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEST SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE LOW...WILL NEED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 223 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AND FOR THE MOST PART AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF. CORRESPONDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ANCHORING ITSELF IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY BUT
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. HAVE MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
BIG FORECAST STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST DEEPENING OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT OF THE PROJECTED TRACK...EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANGES TO
INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN GA LATE ON MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL...CUTTING
OFF THE AREA FROM MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE
NORTHERN MOISTURE PROGRESSION. LITTLE OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR SE CWA TUESDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EMERGES OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DRY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z WHEN MORE HIGH CLOUDS...10 THSD FT
TO 25 THSD FT SCT TO BKN...START MOVING IN AHEAD OF SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS...3 THSD FT TO 4 THSD FT AFTER 04Z AS LIGHT
SHRA MOVE IN. VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS
NORTHWEST....BECOMING NORTHERLY BY 15Z...AND SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 23Z. WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 44 62 42 / 30 5 0 50
ATLANTA 73 43 64 46 / 30 0 0 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 37 57 40 / 20 0 0 50
CARTERSVILLE 68 38 63 41 / 20 0 0 60
COLUMBUS 79 44 69 48 / 30 20 0 80
GAINESVILLE 69 45 60 44 / 20 0 0 50
MACON 83 43 68 44 / 30 30 0 80
ROME 67 36 64 40 / 20 0 0 60
PEACHTREE CITY 73 37 65 40 / 40 0 0 70
VIDALIA 86 54 68 49 / 30 40 0 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
739 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS SHUTTING DOWN QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
IS RESULTING IN BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE OVERCAST. HOWEVER...AT
THE SAME TIME SAID EASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING CLOUDS SOUTHWEST
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WHICH SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWFA
IN TIME.
THUS SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE FCST HAVE BEEN DONE TO REFLECT WHAT
IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND HOW IT SHOULD EVOLVE LATER. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
UPDATE...
OVERALL THE EARLIER THINKING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TRENDS FROM THE
06Z WRF AND RECENT RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRY AIR WILL
SLOWLY PUSH THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SOME MINOR TWEEKS HAVE BEEN DONE TO THE FCST TO BETTER REFLECT THE
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA. ..08..
AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/06 AT KDBQ/KMLI AS DRY LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AT KCID/KBRL MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR VSBY WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/05 BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH RAIN ENDING. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT EASTERN IOWA/ILLINOIS WITH RAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS AFT 12Z/06 WILL START OUT AS VFR BUT MAY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ..08..
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KFNB WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WHILE AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RADAR HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND INVERTED
TROF ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A WALL OF DRY AIR WHICH HAS
STOPPED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 850-700MB
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN COMBINATION WITH OVERALL FORCING
FROM THE WRF AND RAP DEPICT QUITE WELL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING DZ/RA ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S COMMON.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. BY LATE TONIGHT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COLLAPSE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY ENTER BUCHANAN
COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA STAYS DRY. 08
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUE-TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT DYNAMICS IN FORM OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100-120+ KT H3 JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO OVERCOME AND GENERATE BAND(S) OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
TUE AM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS. BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
W/SW SECTIONS TUE AFTN IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S... WITH 40S LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH COOLEST READINGS
NORTHEAST CWA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO PRODUCE CLASSIC
NOR`EASTER... WITH STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNFORTUNATELY POUNDING AREAS RECOVERING FROM HURRICANE SANDY WITH
MORE HEAVY PCPN AND STRONG WINDS WED-THU.
WED-WED NGT... INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PROVIDE DRY WX WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO L50S... AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
THU-FRI... SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING. ALOFT... UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
ON STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPORT MODERATING
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SAT-SUN... PATTERN SET TO UNDERGO CHANGE LEADING TO UNSETTLED/WET
REGIME FOR THE AREA. STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH MODELS HANDLING
OF ENERGY AS IT EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS... WITH MAIN IMPACTS
TO TIMING OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. GENERAL CONSENSUS ATTM IS TO
MOVE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN OCCURRING MAINLY POST FRONTAL. LOCATION OF JET DOES
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT STORMS ATTM... BUT
BEING LATE DAY 6-7 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH
MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES. COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF WAVE DEVELOPS ON
FRONT AS SHOWN BY 00Z GFS. THIS IS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY TO BE
RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPS LOOK TO COME CRASHING BACK
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE EARLIER THINKING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TRENDS FROM THE
06Z WRF AND RECENT RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRY AIR WILL
SLOWLY PUSH THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SOME MINOR TWEEKS HAVE BEEN DONE TO THE FCST TO BETTER REFLECT THE
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/06 AT KDBQ/KMLI AS DRY LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AT KCID/KBRL MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR VSBY WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/05 BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH RAIN ENDING. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT EASTERN IOWA/ILLINOIS WITH RAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS AFT 12Z/06 WILL START OUT AS VFR BUT MAY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KFNB WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WHILE AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RADAR HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND INVERTED
TROF ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A WALL OF DRY AIR WHICH HAS
STOPPED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 850-700MB
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN COMBINATION WITH OVERALL FORCING
FROM THE WRF AND RAP DEPICT QUITE WELL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING DZ/RA ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S COMMON.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. BY LATE TONIGHT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COLLAPSE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY ENTER BUCHANAN
COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA STAYS DRY. 08
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUE-TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT DYNAMICS IN FORM OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100-120+ KT H3 JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO OVERCOME AND GENERATE BAND(S) OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
TUE AM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS. BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
W/SW SECTIONS TUE AFTN IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S... WITH 40S LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH COOLEST READINGS
NORTHEAST CWA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO PRODUCE CLASSIC
NOR`EASTER... WITH STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNFORTUNATELY POUNDING AREAS RECOVERING FROM HURRICANE SANDY WITH
MORE HEAVY PCPN AND STRONG WINDS WED-THU.
WED-WED NGT... INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PROVIDE DRY WX WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO L50S... AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
THU-FRI... SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING. ALOFT... UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
ON STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPORT MODERATING
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SAT-SUN... PATTERN SET TO UNDERGO CHANGE LEADING TO UNSETTLED/WET
REGIME FOR THE AREA. STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH MODELS HANDLING
OF ENERGY AS IT EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS... WITH MAIN IMPACTS
TO TIMING OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. GENERAL CONSENSUS ATTM IS TO
MOVE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN OCCURRING MAINLY POST FRONTAL. LOCATION OF JET DOES
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT STORMS ATTM... BUT
BEING LATE DAY 6-7 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH
MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES. COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF WAVE DEVELOPS ON
FRONT AS SHOWN BY 00Z GFS. THIS IS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY TO BE
RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPS LOOK TO COME CRASHING BACK
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KFNB WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WHILE AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RADAR HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND INVERTED
TROF ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A WALL OF DRY AIR WHICH HAS
STOPPED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 850-700MB
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN COMBINATION WITH OVERALL FORCING
FROM THE WRF AND RAP DEPICT QUITE WELL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING DZ/RA ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S COMMON.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. BY LATE TONIGHT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COLLAPSE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY ENTER BUCHANAN
COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA STAYS DRY. 08
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUE-TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT DYNAMICS IN FORM OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100-120+ KT H3 JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO OVERCOME AND GENERATE BAND(S) OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
TUE AM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS. BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
W/SW SECTIONS TUE AFTN IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S... WITH 40S LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH COOLEST READINGS
NORTHEAST CWA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO PRODUCE CLASSIC
NOR`EASTER... WITH STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNFORTUNATELY POUNDING AREAS RECOVERING FROM HURRICANE SANDY WITH
MORE HEAVY PCPN AND STRONG WINDS WED-THU.
WED-WED NGT... INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PROVIDE DRY WX WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO L50S... AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
THU-FRI... SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING. ALOFT... UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
ON STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPORT MODERATING
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SAT-SUN... PATTERN SET TO UNDERGO CHANGE LEADING TO UNSETTLED/WET
REGIME FOR THE AREA. STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH MODELS HANDLING
OF ENERGY AS IT EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS... WITH MAIN IMPACTS
TO TIMING OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. GENERAL CONSENSUS ATTM IS TO
MOVE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN OCCURRING MAINLY POST FRONTAL. LOCATION OF JET DOES
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT STORMS ATTM... BUT
BEING LATE DAY 6-7 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH
MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES. COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF WAVE DEVELOPS ON
FRONT AS SHOWN BY 00Z GFS. THIS IS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY TO BE
RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPS LOOK TO COME CRASHING BACK
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCCLURE
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA
TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN IOWA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KCID AND KBRL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN.
KMLI LESS AT RISK...BUT MAY ALSO GET THESE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KDBQ IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED AT ALL. DRY AIR TO SWEEP BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY TO VFR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. LE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/MCCLURE/LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
256 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER MONTANA SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS IN PLACE
ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES.
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER CANADA AND THE
ONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WEST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THEN TURN BACK NORTH BEHIND
IT. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES/CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING
AND ACTIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SYSTEMS
TO NOTE...DEEPENING SOON TO BE STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH VERY STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING/DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN CANADA AT THIS TIME. DRY AIR MASS
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE
VERY STRONG THAT RUNS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ON THE WEST SIDE
OF DEVELOPING EASTERN CONUS SYSTEM. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE. THE SREF AND NAM WERE DOING
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST AT THIS TIME ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE. MINS
RECENTLY HAVE FALLING WELL BELOW NWP. WENT IN THAT DIRECTION AND
CLOSER TO THE GEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THE SURFACE RIDGE PULLS
AWAY WITH A CHILLY START...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. NEWER NAM IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF SUN AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME
EXCEPT WARMING THEM UP A TOUCH. THE WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. AS TROUGH LINE PASSES THROUGH THE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITH THEM WARMING UP AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH. SO WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.
THURSDAY...MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND
TIMING AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS MAY BE RUSHING THINGS A LITTLE BIT.
AT THIS TIME...DID A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMEST AND COOLEST
TEMPERATURES BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE IT BEING WARMER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS HOW
THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER. THE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH
THE STRONGEST/BEST DYNAMICS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND SPLITTING OFF
THE WEAKER SOUTHERN END FURTHER SOUTH LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE
MIDDLE. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH WITH MORE
SUPPORT FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEL IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS...MODELS AGREE ON VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THICK CLOUD
COVER. AS A RESULT OF THAT AND COLLABORATION...WARMED UP MAXES.
THIS WARM UP STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE FRONT COMES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT. SOME DISCREPANCY ON TIMING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A THICKENING
CLOUD DECK AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. SO LEFT
THE INHERITED INIT ALONE. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INIT GRIDS LOOK
FINE BUT DID MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT DOWN.
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON...INTO SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ONLY CONCERN NOW IS IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PREVAIL...THE PRECIPITATION COULD START LATER IN THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MORE OF SUNDAY. DESPITE THE BRUNT
OF THE LIFT BEING FURTHER NORTH...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET...VERY
STRONG PV ANOMALY...AND STRONG CO-LOCATED MESOSCALE FORCING LOCATED
WITH FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...DO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. THINK WE WILL GET SOMETHING JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH. AM
CONCERNED AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY IN UPCOMING
FORECASTS OF BANDED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. KEPT
THE PHASE RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SWITCHED IT OVER TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS
INTO SUNDAY...COULD BE ALL SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE. FOR THE
PRECIPITATION KEPT WHAT THE INIT GRID PRODUCED. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON NOV 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS
AND TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
ON WEDNESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BECOME LOW. HOWEVER THE WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO BE TOO LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.
ON FRIDAY...THIS DAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP IN
THE SAME AREA. IF WARM FRONT IS FASTER MOVING NORTH AND THE WINDS
END UP STRONGER...THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER MONTANA SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS IN PLACE
ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES.
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER CANADA AND THE
ONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WEST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THEN TURN BACK NORTH BEHIND
IT. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST MON
NOV 5 2012
FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
SUNDAY MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
ENDS BY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MID 60S NORTH MID 70S SOUTH PER
GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY 850 TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE A
BIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE WARMED READINGS QUITE A BIT WITH 65 TO 70 ALONG THE
KS/NE BORDER (NOT AS CONFIDENT IN WARMUP GIVEN WARM FRONT POSITION)
AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY BURLINGTON AND
HILL CITY IF EVERYTHING WORKS OUT PERFECTLY. FOR SATURDAY WONT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR
EAST AS THE FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE KEY TO THE FORECAST. FINALLY FOR
SUNDAY MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850 SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 25 TO NEAR 35 KTS ALONG/EAST OF THE STATE LINE WHICH IF
TRANSLATE TO THE SFC WILL CREATE CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS CURRENT RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. POST FRONTAL WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL GIVEN 850 WINDS. COULD SEE
GUSTS 25-30 MPH WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON NOV 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS
AND TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1141 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE HOW QUICK TO CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH LAST EVENING AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MVFR CIGS OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT BY 21Z MOST OF THE CIGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3,000FT WITH
KCNU KEEPING THE CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL DRAG ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING THE
LOWER CIGS THAN THE MOST RECENT ONE DID.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER
HAVE UPDATED TO KEEP UP WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD TRENDS. IN
ADDITION DROPPED MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. NAM WAS STRUGGLING WITH WESTERN EXTEND OF CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CURRENT RUC LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WILL BASE CLOUD
FORECAST ON THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THIS MORNING...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO BROKEN-OVERCAST
AT ALL SITES...BUT COULD SEE KRSL/KHUT ONLY GOING BROKEN-OVERCAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A TAD DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE CONUS WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WITH A LARGE...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES IS DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALVES OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. THE WINDS THIS MORNING AND THE
CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
TODAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A TRANQUIL BEGINNING. THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. THE UPPER
PV WAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AND A
SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AFTER SPRITZ AND SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE CHANCE THIS
MORNING...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND WILL PULL YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TODAY AND WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY:
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE FORECAST
WITH A LARGE CHANGE COMING TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE POTENT PV
ANOMALY DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LEE TROUGHING TO DEEPEN
WITH STOUT GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY - SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT THE FORECASTED
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NOW. RECORDS LOOK SAFE FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THEY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
A FEW LOCATIONS IF THINGS STAY ON TRACK.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR BEING AT 144+ HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN SHOCKINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SIMILARITIES THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH WARM SECTOR PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTS
FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY AND BEST
CHANCE WE HAVE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. WITH THESE TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...SOME AREAS OF KANSAS MAY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE FIRE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST AND
TIMING...SO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
BILLINGS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH, 2012
WICHITA....86 IN 2006
RUSSELL....89 IN 2006
SALINA.....89 IN 2006
CHANUTE....84 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH, 2012
WICHITA....82 IN 2006
RUSSELL....78 IN 1999
SALINA.....80 IN 1999
CHANUTE....82 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 10TH, 2012
WICHITA....77 IN 1927
RUSSELL....78 IN 1956
SALINA.....82 IN 1927
CHANUTE....78 IN 1911
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AT THE MID-NGT HOUR A SLOW SE-MOVG COLD FRONT WAS KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AT KSLN & KHUT. NW WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WERE ONLY 5-10KTS
& HAVE THEREFORE EASED ON WIND THROTTLE FOR ALL 5 TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MVFR CIGS
(~2,500FT) WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS FROM
12Z-17Z. WITH THE SE MOVEMENT OF THE 925-850MB LOW THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE KICT & KHUT TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUSTAINED
~17KTS/22MPH WITH GUSTS THAT MAY REACH ~25KTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL 5
TERMINALS FROM ~15Z TIL LATE IN AFTERNOON.
ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 35 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 55 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 53 34 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 33 69 36 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 57 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 58 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 54 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 54 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 36 67 37 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 36 65 36 / 20 0 0 0
IOLA 51 37 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 34 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1049 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER
HAVE UPDATED TO KEEP UP WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD TRENDS. IN
ADDITION DROPPED MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. NAM WAS STRUGGLING WITH WESTERN EXTEND OF CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CURRENT RUC LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WILL BASE CLOUD
FORECAST ON THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THIS MORNING...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO BROKEN-OVERCAST
AT ALL SITES...BUT COULD SEE KRSL/KHUT ONLY GOING BROKEN-OVERCAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A TAD DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE CONUS WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WITH A LARGE...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES IS DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALVES OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. THE WINDS THIS MORNING AND THE
CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
TODAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A TRANQUIL BEGINNING. THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. THE UPPER
PV WAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AND A
SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AFTER SPRITZ AND SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE CHANCE THIS
MORNING...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND WILL PULL YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TODAY AND WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY:
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE FORECAST
WITH A LARGE CHANGE COMING TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE POTENT PV
ANOMALY DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LEE TROUGHING TO DEEPEN
WITH STOUT GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY - SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT THE FORECASTED
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NOW. RECORDS LOOK SAFE FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THEY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
A FEW LOCATIONS IF THINGS STAY ON TRACK.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR BEING AT 144+ HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN SHOCKINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SIMILARITIES THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH WARM SECTOR PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTS
FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY AND BEST
CHANCE WE HAVE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. WITH THESE TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...SOME AREAS OF KANSAS MAY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE FIRE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST AND
TIMING...SO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
BILLINGS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH, 2012
WICHITA....86 IN 2006
RUSSELL....89 IN 2006
SALINA.....89 IN 2006
CHANUTE....84 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH, 2012
WICHITA....82 IN 2006
RUSSELL....78 IN 1999
SALINA.....80 IN 1999
CHANUTE....82 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 10TH, 2012
WICHITA....77 IN 1927
RUSSELL....78 IN 1956
SALINA.....82 IN 1927
CHANUTE....78 IN 1911
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AT THE MID-NGT HOUR A SLOW SE-MOVG COLD FRONT WAS KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AT KSLN & KHUT. NW WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WERE ONLY 5-10KTS
& HAVE THEREFORE EASED ON WIND THROTTLE FOR ALL 5 TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MVFR CIGS
(~2,500FT) WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS FROM
12Z-17Z. WITH THE SE MOVEMENT OF THE 925-850MB LOW THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE KICT & KHUT TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUSTAINED
~17KTS/22MPH WITH GUSTS THAT MAY REACH ~25KTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL 5
TERMINALS FROM ~15Z TIL LATE IN AFTERNOON.
ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 35 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 55 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 53 34 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 33 69 36 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 57 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 58 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 54 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 54 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 36 67 37 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 36 65 36 / 20 0 0 0
IOLA 51 37 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 34 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
534 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. NAM WAS STRUGGLING WITH WESTERN EXTEND OF CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CURRENT RUC LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WILL BASE CLOUD
FORECAST ON THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THIS MORNING...AND THEN
TRANSITION TO NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO BROKEN-OVERCAST
AT ALL SITES...BUT COULD SEE KRSL/KHUT ONLY GOING BROKEN-OVERCAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A TAD DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE CONUS WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WITH A LARGE...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES IS DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALVES OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. THE WINDS THIS MORNING AND THE
CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
TODAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A TRANQUIL BEGINNING. THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. THE UPPER
PV WAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AND A
SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AFTER SPRITZ AND SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE CHANCE THIS
MORNING...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND WILL PULL YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TODAY AND WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY:
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE FORECAST
WITH A LARGE CHANGE COMING TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE POTENT PV
ANOMALY DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LEE TROUGHING TO DEEPEN
WITH STOUT GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY - SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT THE FORECASTED
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NOW. RECORDS LOOK SAFE FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THEY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
A FEW LOCATIONS IF THINGS STAY ON TRACK.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR BEING AT 144+ HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN SHOCKINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SIMILARITIES THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH WARM SECTOR PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTS
FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY AND BEST
CHANCE WE HAVE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. WITH THESE TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...SOME AREAS OF KANSAS MAY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE FIRE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST AND
TIMING...SO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
BILLINGS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH, 2012
WICHITA....86 IN 2006
RUSSELL....89 IN 2006
SALINA.....89 IN 2006
CHANUTE....84 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH, 2012
WICHITA....82 IN 2006
RUSSELL....78 IN 1999
SALINA.....80 IN 1999
CHANUTE....82 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 10TH, 2012
WICHITA....77 IN 1927
RUSSELL....78 IN 1956
SALINA.....82 IN 1927
CHANUTE....78 IN 1911
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AT THE MID-NGT HOUR A SLOW SE-MOVG COLD FRONT WAS KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AT KSLN & KHUT. NW WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WERE ONLY 5-10KTS
& HAVE THEREFORE EASED ON WIND THROTTLE FOR ALL 5 TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MVFR CIGS
(~2,500FT) WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS FROM
12Z-17Z. WITH THE SE MOVEMENT OF THE 925-850MB LOW THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE KICT & KHUT TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUSTAINED
~17KTS/22MPH WITH GUSTS THAT MAY REACH ~25KTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL 5
TERMINALS FROM ~15Z TIL LATE IN AFTERNOON.
ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 59 35 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 57 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 34 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 56 33 69 36 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 57 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 56 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 60 36 67 37 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 55 36 65 36 / 20 0 0 0
IOLA 53 37 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 58 34 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1211 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WEAK NRLY FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NW MISSOURI. A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHRTWV WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SRN ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL WI RESULTING IN WEAK ENE
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
CWA WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2K-3K FT. A
PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES NEAR ANJ/CIU HAS SLID TO THE SW AND MOSTLY
FILLED BACK IN. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE ISOLD -SHSN/FLURRIES HAD AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE LIGHT ERLY 925 MB WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE ERN CWA TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM N OF THE
SAULT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP ERODE THE
CLOUDS. OVER THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF ISOLD -SHSN W AND N OF
MARQUETTE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SRLY...ENDING ANY -SHSN CHANCES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING BEYOND THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. NAM WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT PCPN STARTING OUT AS SNOW COULD BEGIN CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
WILL ONLY BE OVER THE FAR WEST FROM IWD-CMX. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT COATING (FEW TENTHS) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BY ROUGHLY 2-3HRS IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO PUSH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE
STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONE TO TWO
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE COOLER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N CENTRAL UPPER MI THAT SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. STILL HAVE HALF OF AN INCH TO RIGHT AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE DGZ AROUND 600MB IS
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
S SFC TO 850MB WINDS OF 15-25KTS OVER N CENTRAL TO NE UPPER MI
TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN WEDNESDAY AND STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SW FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE CWA AND THE
APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE EDGES JUST TO OUR E.
WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE HAD OVER THE CWA IN A COUPLE OF
WEEKS /850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY BU TO 12C AT 00Z SUN OFF THE NEW 11/00Z
ECMWF/. WITH ALL THE WARM AIR AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES KEPT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT DID A BIT OF TAILORING
TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS FORECAST AND KEEP MVFR CIGS IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. BY TONIGHT...GETS A BIT TRICKY
WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS CONDITIONS WILL
GO VFR OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. WHEN PCPN
STARTS...CONDITIONS WILL GO BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A RASN
MIXTURE. PUT IN SOME LLWS AT IWD LATE TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
729 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WEAK NRLY FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NW MISSOURI. A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHRTWV WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SRN ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL WI RESULTING IN WEAK ENE
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
CWA WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2K-3K FT. A
PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES NEAR ANJ/CIU HAS SLID TO THE SW AND MOSTLY
FILLED BACK IN. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE ISOLD -SHSN/FLURRIES HAD AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE LIGHT ERLY 925 MB WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE ERN CWA TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM N OF THE
SAULT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP ERODE THE
CLOUDS. OVER THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF ISOLD -SHSN W AND N OF
MARQUETTE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SRLY...ENDING ANY -SHSN CHANCES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING BEYOND THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. NAM WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT PCPN STARTING OUT AS SNOW COULD BEGIN CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
WILL ONLY BE OVER THE FAR WEST FROM IWD-CMX. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT COATING (FEW TENTHS) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BY ROUGHLY 2-3HRS IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO PUSH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE
STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONE TO TWO
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE COOLER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N CENTRAL UPPER MI THAT SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. STILL HAVE HALF OF AN INCH TO RIGHT AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE DGZ AROUND 600MB IS
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
S SFC TO 850MB WINDS OF 15-25KTS OVER N CENTRAL TO NE UPPER MI
TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN WEDNESDAY AND STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SW FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE CWA AND THE
APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE EDGES JUST TO OUR E.
WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE HAD OVER THE CWA IN A COUPLE OF
WEEKS /850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY BU TO 12C AT 00Z SUN OFF THE NEW 11/00Z
ECMWF/. WITH ALL THE WARM AIR AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES KEPT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT DID A BIT OF TAILORING
TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
SAW/CMX...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH SLOWLY VEERING UPSLOPE NE TO E FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
HIGH PRES SLIDING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND UNDER SHARP LOW
SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHSN MAINLY AT CMX WITH
MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...THE LOW INVERSION BASE WILL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN AND ANY RESTRICTION TO VSBY. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
IWD...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPING S DIRECTION WL BRING A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MON AFTN THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT AT IWD/CMX WHEN RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WEAK NRLY FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NW MISSOURI. A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHRTWV WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SRN ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL WI RESULTING IN WEAK ENE
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
CWA WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2K-3K FT. A
PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES NEAR ANJ/CIU HAS SLID TO THE SW AND MOSTLY
FILLED BACK IN. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE ISOLD -SHSN/FLURRIES HAD AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE LIGHT ERLY 925 MB WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE ERN CWA TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM N OF THE
SAULT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP ERODE THE
CLOUDS. OVER THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF ISOLD -SHSN W AND N OF
MARQUETTE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SRLY...ENDING ANY -SHSN CHANCES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING BEYOND THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. NAM WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT PCPN STARTING OUT AS SNOW COULD BEGIN CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
WILL ONLY BE OVER THE FAR WEST FROM IWD-CMX. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT COATING (FEW TENTHS) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BY ROUGHLY 2-3HRS IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO PUSH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE
STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONE TO TWO
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE COOLER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N CENTRAL UPPER MI THAT SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. STILL HAVE HALF OF AN INCH TO RIGHT AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE DGZ AROUND 600MB IS
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
S SFC TO 850MB WINDS OF 15-25KTS OVER N CENTRAL TO NE UPPER MI
TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN WEDNESDAY AND STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SW FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE CWA AND THE
APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE EDGES JUST TO OUR E.
WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE HAD OVER THE CWA IN A COUPLE OF
WEEKS /850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY BU TO 12C AT 00Z SUN OFF THE NEW 11/00Z
ECMWF/. WITH ALL THE WARM AIR AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES KEPT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT DID A BIT OF TAILORING
TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
SAW/CMX...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THRU THIS MRNG WITH
SLOWLY VEERING UPSLOPE NE TO E FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF HI PRES SLIDING
SLOWLY SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO AND UNDER SHARP LOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN
SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHSN MAINLY
AT CMX WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE FLOW...LO INVRN BASE WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN AND ANY RESTRICTION TO VSBY. BY MON AFTN...
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WSHFT TO THE S SHOULD ALLOW A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
KIWD...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO RETURN EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPING S
DIRECTION WL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MON AFTN THAT
PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
INHERITED FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
EVENING. LGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY ACROSS OUR IL COUNTIES. STILL WAITING ON THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SSE OUT OF
ERN NEBRASKA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SFC LOW OVER WRN IA. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIVES
THRU WRN MO OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ECHOS ACROSS
IA AND NW MO ARE VERY LIGHT ATTM BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE
AS THE SHORT WAVE GETS CLOSER. MONDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAMP DAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM N-S. NOT MUCH RISE ON TEMPS EXPECTED
EITHER WITH AN ERLY WIND AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
MILLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(TONIGHT)
POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKEWISE DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND LINK UP WITH A BROAD/RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER KANSAS. THE COMBINED SURFACE TROF WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING A SWATH OF RAIN
OUT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE HRRR IS ESPECIALLY FAST
BRINGING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MO AS EARLY AS 03Z...AND SPREADING TO
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z. AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE 3-6HRS SLOWER...BUT WILL
BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR A FASTER ONSET OF RAIN.
CARNEY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALIVE AND WELL ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THIS LONGWAVE TROF AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE THE NATIONS WEATHER STORY...AS THE NOR`EASTER BRINGS
STRONG WIND...RAIN...AND EVEN SOME WINTER WEATHER TO AREAS STILL
REELING FROM SANDY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MISSOURI. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. HAVE WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE LOWEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. RAIN SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A FINAL SHORTWAVE...THE CABOOSE...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND AN EASTERN TRACK TO THE DISTURBANCE KEEPS POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CONFINED TO ILLINOIS COUNTIES. SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION BY WEEKS END AS A
MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM CARVES A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH HELPS AMPLIFY A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
END RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS LARGE UPPER TROF WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL DROP S-SEWD
THROUGH WRN MO LATE TGT AND MON MRNG. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD SEWD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVNG WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO UIN. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN LATE TGT WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY
LATE TGT IN UIN AND COU AND IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON
MRNG. THE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR CATAGORY ON MON.
RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD SEWD INTO UIN AND COU LATE TGT AND INTO THE
ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON MRNG WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 4-5SM. A
E-SELY SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN E-NELY DIRECTION MON AFTN
AND EVNG AS THE WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS SW OF THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL
EVENTUALLY PROGRESS S-SE OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY MON EVNG
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MON EVNG. THE SFC WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT MON EVNG.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THE CLOUD CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY BY
EARLY MON MRNG AS LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. PREFER THE LOWER
CIG HEIGHTS OF THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE MORE OPTIMISTIC CIG
HEIGHTS OF THE GFS MOS. RAIN WILL DROP VSBYS TO 4-5SM ON MON. THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SE OF STL BY EARLY MON EVNG ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT ELY SFC
WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO A SELY DIRECTION LATE TGT...AND INCREASE
TO 8-9 KTS MON MRNG. THE SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN ELY
DIRECTION BY EARLY MON EVNG AS IT BECOMES LIGHT AGAIN.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
318 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE REGION IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY QUICKLY DROPPING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER FEATURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE ADDED A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SLOW TO SATURATE
LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD ALLOW GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE AREA
AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
KERN
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BIG SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES.
THE EC/GFS/GEFS/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
SOME TYPICALLY TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED TROF
SETTLING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE GULF IS OPEN WITH H85 FLOW
FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH THE DRY SLOT HEADING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND BY 18Z SATURDAY
IS CENTERED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA
(GFS/EC/GEFS) OR MINNESOTA (CANADIAN). THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE AHEAD OF...NORTH...AND TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LIFT/WAA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND THEN LIFTING NORTH AND SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST. THE EC IS
SLOWER WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND HOLDS ON TO THE HIGH 10 TO 12DEG C
H85 DEWPOINTS. COMBINED WITH THE LIFT WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM THESE
DIFFERENCES ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES IN RESULTANT QPF WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE EC.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S AND
MUCH COLDER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FOR NOW HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...SOME POPS
INTO SUNDAY. WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE A MIX IN THE NORTHEAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SHOULD THERE BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A MIX OR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
IFR/MVFR CIGS BETWEEN FL005 AND FL015 WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER NEAR KOMA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...BUT ANY CLEARING WILL
LEAD TO IFR FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST...MAINLY TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD AND SHOULD BE CLOSE...THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KGRI TO RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
NORTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING AND
THEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE EVENING. THE WIND WILL VEER WITH TIME
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
UPDATE...JUST SHIPPED A FAIRLY MINOR UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE OBVIOUS FROM THE LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BOOST SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO 100 PERCENT FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA. AS HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL CAPTURED BY
VARIOUS MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS AND ALSO THE LOW CLOUD COVER
GUIDANCE FROM THE 09Z HRRR...BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY
OVERTAKEN ALL AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ITS ULTIMATE FATE...BUT WILL CONTINUE
BANKING ON SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON EROSION...LIKELY IN SOME WEST-
TO-EAST FASHION. JUST IN CASE THESE LOW CLOUDS HANG FIRMER THAN
THOUGHT...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED DURING A
STRETCH OF DAYS A FEW WEEKS AGO...NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPS 1 DEGREE
ACROSS THE BOARD. MAYBE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE A MINOR
BUT INCORRECT MOVE...BUT WHEN IT COMES TO COLD SEASON
STRATUS...DOWNWARD IS USUALLY THE DIRECTION TO GO AND THERE IS
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN HOURLY TEMP
FIELDS FROM THE 09Z HRRR AS WELL. REITERATING FROM THE EARLIER
AFD...WE ARE NOW TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS TODAY AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IT DOES/DOESN`T BREAK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
645 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...JUST SHIPPED A FAIRLY MINOR UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE OBVIOUS FROM THE LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BOOST SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO 100 PERCENT FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA. AS HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL CAPTURED BY
VARIOUS MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS AND ALSO THE LOW CLOUD COVER
GUIDANCE FROM THE 09Z HRRR...BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY
OVERTAKEN ALL AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ITS ULTIMATE FATE...BUT WILL CONTINUE
BANKING ON SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON EROSION...LIKELY IN SOME WEST-
TO-EAST FASHION. JUST IN CASE THESE LOW CLOUDS HANG FIRMER THAN
THOUGHT...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED DURING A
STRETCH OF DAYS A FEW WEEKS AGO...NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPS 1 DEGREE
ACROSS THE BOARD. MAYBE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE A MINOR
BUT INCORRECT MOVE...BUT WHEN IT COMES TO COLD SEASON
STRATUS...DOWNWARD IS USUALLY THE DIRECTION TO GO AND THERE IS
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN HOURLY TEMP
FIELDS FROM THE 09Z HRRR AS WELL. REITERATING FROM THE EARLIER
AFD...WE ARE NOW TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS TODAY AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IT DOES/DOESN`T BREAK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. CEILINGS ARE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS
SOME LOCATIONS ARE DIPPING JUST INSIDE THE IFR CATEGORY...BUT THE
TERMINAL SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO HAVE PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD DECREASE
BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRATUS WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT...BUT
SHOULD AT LEAST RAISE A BIT OVER TIME TODAY. TOUGH CALL FOR END OF
STRATUS BUT WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS...GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
539 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. CEILINGS ARE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS
SOME LOCATIONS ARE DIPPING JUST INSIDE THE IFR CATEGORY...BUT THE
TERMINAL SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO HAVE PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD DECREASE
BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRATUS WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT...BUT
SHOULD AT LEAST RAISE A BIT OVER TIME TODAY. TOUGH CALL FOR END OF
STRATUS BUT WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS...GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
10Z...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 10Z-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED 14Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900FT
AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TURBULENT MIXING FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE
FORMATION...AND WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT 6SM 10-14Z AS A
RESULT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 16KTS AND GUSTING TO
AROUND 22KTS 14Z ONWARD. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF LLWS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASE TO NEAR 35KTS AND THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS NEAR 5KTS.
WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING
AS IT APPEARS WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA...BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR UNTIL THE SURFACE WIND INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1059 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
10Z...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 10Z-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED 14Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900FT
AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TURBULENT MIXING FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE
FORMATION...AND WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT 6SM 10-14Z AS A
RESULT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 16KTS AND GUSTING TO
AROUND 22KTS 14Z ONWARD. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF LLWS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASE TO NEAR 35KTS AND THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS NEAR 5KTS.
WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING
AS IT APPEARS WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA...BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR UNTIL THE SURFACE WIND INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
UPDATE...EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS...ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO NORTH TEXAS. A NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS
MATERIALIZED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS A RESULT. A BAND OF STRATUS
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CANADA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS COVERS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO PERSIST OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. KUEX AND KOAX INDICATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA.
LATEST HRRR...NAM AND RAP DATA ALL SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD OUR AREA
NOW...AND NOTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
UPSTREAM...SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THESE LATEST DATA.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...AND ONLY LEFT ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK
RETURNS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED BY KUEX. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS A TOUCH TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL SUGGEST THE STRATUS
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER OUR EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH THE
STRATUS REMAINING FARTHER NORTHEAST...OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST LOWS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
MAY BE A BIT WARM GIVEN THE STRATUS...BUT WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S OUT THAT WAY...FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S SHOULD VERIFY FAIRLY WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOCUSED ON
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY FALL FROM THEM TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT GRADUALLY
MOISTENS THE AIR BELOW IT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
THAT SAID...THE DROPLETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SMALL...SO ONLY
EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN AREA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER/MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...SO WINDS WILL ALSO. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS EXPECTING GRADUAL
CLEARING AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS
A MATTER OF FACT...BETWEEN THE STRONG WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
THE CHANGE WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE BY ANYONE VENTURING
OUTSIDE.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PEGGED THESE TRENDS WELL...SO AM NOT REQUIRED
TO MAKE MANY CHANGES AT ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES FM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BACKS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BEHIND
BOUNDARY LENDING TOWARD A W/E THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGHS IN THE
AFTN...BUT STILL SEASONAL OR ABOVE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXPANDS ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER LOW/LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND WITH GRADUAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THRU FRIDAY NIGHT OR
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PCPN ENTERING OUR REGION
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND UPPER DYNAMICS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO AT LEAST
WARRANT SOME CHC FOR NON LIQUID PCPN...WITH A TRANSITION FM R/S
NW/SE. BY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH MARKEDLY COLDER AIR
SETTLING IN WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1027 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS...ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO NORTH TEXAS. A NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS
MATERIALIZED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS A RESULT. A BAND OF STRATUS
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CANADA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS COVERS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO PERSIST OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. KUEX AND KOAX INDICATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA.
LATEST HRRR...NAM AND RAP DATA ALL SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD OUR AREA
NOW...AND NOTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
UPSTREAM...SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THESE LATEST DATA.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...AND ONLY LEFT ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK
RETURNS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED BY KUEX. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS A TOUCH TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL SUGGEST THE STRATUS
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER OUR EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH THE
STRATUS REMAINING FARTHER NORTHEAST...OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST LOWS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
MAY BE A BIT WARM GIVEN THE STRATUS...BUT WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S OUT THAT WAY...FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S SHOULD VERIFY FAIRLY WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
07Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS 07-14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS 14Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AS LOW
AS 900FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AT
KGRI...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEING
OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
THAT BEING SAID...SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TURBULENT MIXING FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE
FORMATION...AND WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT 6SM 10-14Z AS A RESULT.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 16KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND
22KTS 14Z ONWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOCUSED ON
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY FALL FROM THEM TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT GRADUALLY
MOISTENS THE AIR BELOW IT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
THAT SAID...THE DROPLETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SMALL...SO ONLY
EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN AREA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER/MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...SO WINDS WILL ALSO. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS EXPECTING GRADUAL
CLEARING AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS
A MATTER OF FACT...BETWEEN THE STRONG WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
.THE CHANGE WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE BY ANYONE VENTURING
OUTSIDE.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PEGGED THESE TRENDS WELL...SO AM NOT REQUIRED
TO MAKE MANY CHANGES AT ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES FM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BACKS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BEHIND
BOUNDARY LENDING TOWARD A W/E THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGHS IN THE
AFTN...BUT STILL SEASONAL OR ABOVE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXPANDS ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER LOW/LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND WITH GRADUAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THRU FRIDAY NIGHT OR
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PCPN ENTERING OUR REGION
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND UPPER DYNAMICS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO AT LEAST
WARRANT SOME CHC FOR NON LIQUID PCPN...WITH A TRANSITION FM R/S
NW/SE. BY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH MARKEDLY COLDER AIR
SETTLING IN WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
COASTAL SYSTEM INCREASES THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION NORTH OF MAINE...WHICH CONTS TO PRODUCE AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT WITH ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS
SLOWLY MOVING TWD THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT VIS SAT PIC CONTS TO
SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS BENEATH THIS FEATURE. STILL DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AMOUNT OF CLRING TONIGHT/TUESDAY...AS SOUNDINGS CONT TO
SHOW RH BTWN 2000 FT AND 6000 FT...ESPECIALLY THE RAP. WL POPULATE
SKY GRIDS USING THE RAP THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
ANTICIPATED. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST FLW AND WEAK S/W ENERGY...ALONG
WITH SOME LAKE INSTABILITY...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE CPV AND MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE <1.0"...BUT AS TEMPS DROP BLW FREEZING A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS WL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON AMOUNT OF CLRING...BUT THINKING WITH
CLOUDS AND SOME CLRING AFT MIDNIGHT...LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS SLK/NEK TO M/U20S CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL FLW SLOWLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACRS OUR CWA. VIS SATL PICS ACTUAL SHOW THE CLEARING ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/OHIO VALLEY...SO THINK WE WL SEE SOME SUN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR...WITH JUST A LITTLE RH AROUND 3000 FT. WL
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACRS THE MTNS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -10C...ALONG WITH 925MB NEAR
-3C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U20S MTNS TO U30S WARMER VALLEYS...A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DUE TO MORE SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES ON TUES
NIGHT INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS SLK/NEK TO UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.
THIS WL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON. WEDS...RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL ADVECT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR
CWA...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING/THICKENING AFT 18Z.
WEDS NIGHT...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING ACRS THE SE CONUS WL
INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS ON WEDS....WITH A SLOW TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG
THE COAST ON WEDS NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BY 00Z THURS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH
SFC LOW PRES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z THURS. GIVEN...GOOD
RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH LIFTING ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH A BAND
OF FAVORABLE FG FORCING...WL INCREASE POPS TO CAT SOUTHERN VT ZNS TO
CHC SLV ON WEDS NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW INITIAL BL TEMPS WL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THE
COLUMN SHOULD QUICKLY COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...AS
EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...A WARM
LAYER BTWN 875MB AND 800MB DEVELOPS WITH TEMPS BTWN
3-5C...SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL MIX. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ATTM...AS BEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST QPF IS EASTERN/CENTRAL
CWA...ALONG WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS...AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILE IS
COLDEST ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...QPF IS LIGHT. THINKING ADVISORY TYPE
EVENT AT MOST AT THIS TIME...BUT ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK...WL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON QPF PLACEMENT AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...PROBABILITY REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL
FEEL EFFECTS OF COASTAL LOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DIFFICULTY LIES IN DETERMINING DETAILS SUCH AS PTYPE AND QPF.
BY 12Z THURSDAY..SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...FULLY CAPTURED BY UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST FGEN WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...AFTER WHICH TIME PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND LIGHTER. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS MARGINAL UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB.
STILL LOOKING AT A MAINLY COLD RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW OR MIXED PCPN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
SLEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST.
PRECIPITATION THEN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
STAYING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
TOTAL QPF EXPECTED TO VARY FROM LESS THAN .25 INCHES IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AROUND .75 INCHES ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.
SYSTEM THEN EXITS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY AND THEN
PASSES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN
QUESTION THOUGH AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY
MONDAY WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...THEN CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SLK/BTV/MPV. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
NORTHWEST 8-13 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS LOW
DEPARTS FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
327 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...AND SPRINKLES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO BRING DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME VERY LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS EVE. WILL KEEP
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN OVRNGT. NAM DOES SHOW A CPL MORE WEAK
WVS SLIDING THRU LATE TNGT AND EARLY MON...BUT THE HRRR KEEPS ANY
LGT PCPN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OVER WRN NY. WITH THE MORE NLY
FLOW...XPCT CHANCE FOR ANY LGT LE TO BE MORE PSBL OVER THE WRN
ZONES AS THE NGT WEARS ON. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE CWA LATE
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME EARLY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP...WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN OUR ERN ZNS TNT.
THE CHARACTER OF THE CLOUD COVER IS TAKING ON A MORE OPEN CELLULAR
APPEARANCE EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR ATTM...AND FAIRLY SIG HOLES
HAVE OPENED UP IN THE EARLIER EXPANSIVE SC SHIELD UP OVER SRN QUE.
SINCE OUR LOW-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE INTO THE N AND
EVEN NNE OVERNIGHT...WE THINK THIS TYPE OF ENVIR WILL SETTLE ACRS
OUR ERN ZNS...WITH AT LEAST PTL CLEARING ANTICIPATED AFTER 00-03Z.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER W THROUGH THE FINGER LKS RGN...WHERE A LOW-LVL MOIST
FEED WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED S OF LK ONT...CLDS SHOULD BE MORE
STUBBORN...WITH A FEW FLRYS EVEN ANTICIPATED...AS BLYR CAA IS
RENEWED FOR A BRIEF PD OVERNIGHT.
OUR NE PA ZNS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURG THE NGT...EXCPT FOR
PERHAPS BRADFORD/WRN SUSQ CNTYS...WHERE THE ABV MENTIONED CLOUDS
FROM LK ONT COULD MOVE IN FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM UPDATE... QUIET WX FORESEEN THIS PD...WITH SFC RIDGING OUR
DOMINANT FEATURE.
AM CLDS/SCTD FLRYS MON IN OUR WRN ZNS...SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BREAK UP BY 18Z...AS THE DEPTH OF DRIER AIR FINALLY OVERWHELMS THE
MOIST BLYR ENVIR. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT MAINLY CLR SKIES MON
NGT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON TUE. MID TO HIGH-LVL CLDS MAY WELL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LTR TUE NGT...FAR IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL ADVERTISED
EAST COAST STORM SLATED TO ARRIVE IN THE LONG-TERM PD (MORE ON
THIS BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
GFS AND ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER
STORM OF THE SEASON WILL BE IMPACTING OUR REGION AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE TWO MODELS
ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN TERMS OF FCST TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER SOME DISPARITY STILL REMAINS WITH EXPECTED
THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON BOTH P-TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS. 00Z GFS HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE CURRENT VERSION SUGGESTING H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ABOUT
+2C OVERNIGHT WED. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE COOLER
SOLUTION WITH SUBZERO H85 TEMP VALUES FORECAST CWA WIDE.
CONSIDERING HOW BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
ELONGATED QPF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE/RE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH
DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TO FAVOR THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION.
THAT SAID...HAVE MAINTAINED A SNOW MENTION THROUGH 18Z THU BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RA/SN MIX BY AFTERNOON.
WINTER STORM FEATURE SHOULD QUICKLY BEGIN EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY
THU NGT WITH LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT
WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. MODELS BEGINNING TO HIT HARD THAT A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS ADVERTISE H50 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 582 DM BY EARLY
SUN. IF THIS PANS OUT AS ADVERTISED...LOW 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STORM DEVELOPING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH THE STORM WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CANADIAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE... MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LEARNING TOWARD THE ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MODELS HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER MINOR POSITIONING DIFFERENCES WILL MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. THE GFS WOULD
BASICALLY INDICATE A NON- EVENT FOR OUR AREA... THE CANADIAN WOULD
INDICATE A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATES THE MOST SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL
COUNTIES... ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. OBVIOUSLY TOO SOON TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS AT THIS POINT... BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT OUR CURRENT RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY
SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WINDS DOWN BY FRIDAY... AND AT THIS POINT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTS IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRY
AIR MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT ANY IFR CONDITIONS FROM FORMING AT BGM AND ITH.
AFTER 13Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN
5-10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS RESULTING IN NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH A
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR.
WED TO THU NGT...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
FRI...MVFR IN CENTRAL NY WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG/MSE
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...AND SPRINKLES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO BRING DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME VERY LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS EVE. WILL KEEP
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN OVRNGT. NAM DOES SHOW A CPL MORE WEAK
WVS SLIDING THRU LATE TNGT AND EARLY MON...BUT THE HRRR KEEPS ANY
LGT PCPN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OVER WRN NY. WITH THE MORE NLY
FLOW...XPCT CHANCE FOR ANY LGT LE TO BE MORE PSBL OVER THE WRN
ZONES AS THE NGT WEARS ON. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE CWA LATE
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME EARLY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP...WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN OUR ERN ZNS TNT.
THE CHARACTER OF THE CLOUD COVER IS TAKING ON A MORE OPEN CELLULAR
APPEARANCE EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR ATTM...AND FAIRLY SIG HOLES
HAVE OPENED UP IN THE EARLIER EXPANSIVE SC SHIELD UP OVER SRN QUE.
SINCE OUR LOW-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE INTO THE N AND
EVEN NNE OVERNIGHT...WE THINK THIS TYPE OF ENVIR WILL SETTLE ACRS
OUR ERN ZNS...WITH AT LEAST PTL CLEARING ANTICIPATED AFTER 00-03Z.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER W THROUGH THE FINGER LKS RGN...WHERE A LOW-LVL MOIST
FEED WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED S OF LK ONT...CLDS SHOULD BE MORE
STUBBORN...WITH A FEW FLRYS EVEN ANTICIPATED...AS BLYR CAA IS
RENEWED FOR A BRIEF PD OVERNIGHT.
OUR NE PA ZNS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURG THE NGT...EXCPT FOR
PERHAPS BRADFORD/WRN SUSQ CNTYS...WHERE THE ABV MENTIONED CLOUDS
FROM LK ONT COULD MOVE IN FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM UPDATE... QUIET WX FORESEEN THIS PD...WITH SFC RIDGING OUR
DOMINANT FEATURE.
AM CLDS/SCTD FLRYS MON IN OUR WRN ZNS...SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BREAK UP BY 18Z...AS THE DEPTH OF DRIER AIR FINALLY OVERWHELMS THE
MOIST BLYR ENVIR. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT MAINLY CLR SKIES MON
NGT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON TUE. MID TO HIGH-LVL CLDS MAY WELL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LTR TUE NGT...FAR IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL ADVERTISED
EAST COAST STORM SLATED TO ARRIVE IN THE LONG-TERM PD (MORE ON
THIS BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STORM DEVELOPING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH THE STORM WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CANADIAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE... MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LEARNING TOWARD THE ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MODELS HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER MINOR POSITIONING DIFFERENCES WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. THE GFS WOULD
BASICALLY INDICATE A NON- EVENT FOR OUR AREA... THE CANADIAN WOULD
INDICATE A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATES THE MOST SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL
COUNTIES... ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. OBVIOUSLY TOO SOON TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS AT THIS POINT... BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT OUR CURRENT RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY
SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WINDS DOWN BY FRIDAY... AND AT THIS POINT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTS IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRY
AIR MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT ANY IFR CONDITIONS FROM FORMING AT BGM AND ITH.
AFTER 13Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN
5-10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS RESULTING IN NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH A
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR.
WED TO THU NGT...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
FRI...MVFR IN CENTRAL NY WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
343 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY THIS MORNING AS COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHILLY RAIN. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WARMING TREND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO TEMPORARILY WEDGE
ACROSS THE ILM CWA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE FROM THE FA
AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTS. POST FRONTAL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...4K TO 120K FT...WILL RULE
THE EARLY MORNING HRS THROUGH MID-MORNING. POST FRONTAL LOW TO
MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA AND AID IN THE
SCOURING OUT OF THESE CLOUDS BY MID-DAY...VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS OF SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CI/CS WILL BE RATHER THIN DURING
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OPAQUE TONIGHT AND DROPPING
FROM 250K FT TO 200K FT. RATHER POTENT S/W TROF WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S....WILL
DIVE SE TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES BY DAYBREAK TUE. MODELS
SIMILAR WITH THIS AGGRESSIVE S/W TROF MOVEMENT...AS IT BECOMES
NEUTRAL-LY TILTED BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOOK FOR THE TAPPING OF GULF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE. MAX TEMPS TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE
AND DROP TO THE MID 30S NORTH PORTIONS...TO NEAR 40 SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...40 TO 45 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE MORNING
AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL DURING TUE. FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/JETTING COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH HELP LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THE
CANADIAN...AND THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS THUS IT IS BEING DISREGARDED.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST...THOUGH IT HAS SLOWED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY.
CONVERSELY THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN A RATHER SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/12Z ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AT 12Z WED...BASICALLY EAST OF HATTERAS(GFS) OR SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE LOOKOUT(ECMWF). INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH 12Z WED LOW POSITION JUST NORTHEAST
OF HATTERAS. OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE SMALL GIVEN THE
CIRCUMSTANCES SO FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST.
PLAN TO HOLD ONTO PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WED BEFORE DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE
ON THE BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY WED AS THE STORM REALLY BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
BOTH ECMWF AND LATEST GFS HINT AT WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON WED...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED. FEATURE ARRIVES AT
THE COAST TO LATE TO TAP INTO ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND IS NOT
LIKELY TO GENERATE MUCH BESIDE A BRIEF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
CLOUD COVER...COLD ADVECTION...AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
ON TUE. ALTHOUGH RAIN ENDS WED COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS WELL BELOW CLIMO WED. COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP LOWS BELOW CLIMO...THOUGH NOT AS FAR BELOW CLIMO AS HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK TO CLIMO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-MID WEEK STORM
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRI...WITH AXIS JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH REMAINING
A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE WITH GRADIENT BEING SLOW TO RELAX.
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE PERIOD REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...GFS HAD BEEN FASTER MOVING THEM OFFSHORE AND DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW. LATEST GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS FINALLY MOVED
OFFSHORE...AND NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...
POST-FRONTAL -SHRA MAINLY VCSH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
UP TO A FEW HRS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK B4 MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR
GOOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS FOR BEING
LESS AGGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT.
FOR THE MOST PART A 3K TO 6 K FT DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INFILTRATES THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING DAYLIGHT HRS OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS...FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL
STALL WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY WEDGES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NE STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT...A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL
RESULT WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT OR 15 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE
TODAY AND HOLD AT THESE HEIGHTS THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL DOMINATE SIG. SEAS...WITH A CONTINUED UNDERLYING EASTERLY 1
FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 12 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
NORTHERN FL ON TUE TO NEAR HATTERAS WED MORNING AND OFF THE
SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING TUE GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED BUT IT IS TUE NIGHT AND WED WHEN GRADIENT
BECOMES TIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT GALES WILL BE MET BUT 15 TO 25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT...MAINLY TUE
INTO WED AS SPEEDS INCREASE BUT DIRECTION REMAINS NORTHEAST. AS
WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST WED INTO WED NIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN PUSHING HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT RELAXES AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. ON THU
FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT
BEFORE WINDS START TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND DROP TO AROUND 15 KT
THU NIGHT. 10 TO 15 KT NORTHWEST WINDS FRI DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KNOCKED DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OE THE PERIOD BY DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
301 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY THIS MORNING AS COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHILLY RAIN. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WARMING TREND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:45 PM SUNDAY...ONE LAST LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS. LOOKS
LIKE DANGER OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. RELEVANT
PORTION OF DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
MOVING OFF THE NC/SC COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN LOW 40S NORTH ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR 50 ACROSS THE VERY
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT 12Z(7AM)...BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL
RESIDE OFFSHORE AT FIRST LIGHT OF MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE MORNING
AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL DURING TUE. FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/JETTING COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH HELP LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THE
CANADIAN...AND THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS THUS IT IS BEING DISREGARDED.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST...THOUGH IT HAS SLOWED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY.
CONVERSELY THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN A RATHER SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/12Z ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AT 12Z WED...BASICALLY EAST OF HATTERAS(GFS) OR SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE LOOKOUT(ECMWF). INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH 12Z WED LOW POSITION JUST NORTHEAST
OF HATTERAS. OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE SMALL GIVEN THE
CIRCUMSTANCES SO FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST.
PLAN TO HOLD ONTO PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WED BEFORE DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE
ON THE BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY WED AS THE STORM REALLY BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
BOTH ECMWF AND LATEST GFS HINT AT WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON WED...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED. FEATURE ARRIVES AT
THE COAST TO LATE TO TAP INTO ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND IS NOT
LIKELY TO GENERATE MUCH BESIDE A BRIEF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
CLOUD COVER...COLD ADVECTION...AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
ON TUE. ALTHOUGH RAIN ENDS WED COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS WELL BELOW CLIMO WED. COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP LOWS BELOW CLIMO...THOUGH NOT AS FAR BELOW CLIMO AS HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK TO CLIMO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-MID WEEK STORM
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRI...WITH AXIS JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH REMAINING
A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE WITH GRADIENT BEING SLOW TO RELAX.
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE PERIOD REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...GFS HAD BEEN FASTER MOVING THEM OFFSHORE AND DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW. LATEST GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAS FINALLY MOVED
OFFSHORE...AND NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...
POST-FRONTAL -SHRA MAINLY VCSH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
UP TO A FEW HRS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK B4 MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR
GOOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS FOR BEING
LESS AGGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT.
FOR THE MOST PART A 3K TO 6 K FT DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INFILTRATES THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL
PREVAUIL WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING DAYLIGHT HRS OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS...FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM SUNDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED
TO THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CHANGEABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW COMPLEX MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THEN
PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE
20 KT GUSTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE LATE TONIGHT AS A
NORTH SURGE OF WIND PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER RELATIVELY MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND
HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND AROUND THE OCEAN SHOALS. NO CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE NEEDED FOR NOW...BUT THE SEA
WILL REMAIN BUMPY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WIND- SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTHERN
FL ON TUE TO NEAR HATTERAS WED MORNING AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING TUE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED
BUT IT IS TUE NIGHT AND WED WHEN GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT AS LOW
STARTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
GALES WILL BE MET BUT 15 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CERTAINLY PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT...MAINLY TUE INTO WED AS SPEEDS
INCREASE BUT DIRECTION REMAINS NORTHEAST. AS WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST
WED INTO WED NIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL BEGIN PUSHING HIGHEST
SEAS BEYOND 20 NM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT RELAXES AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. ON THU
FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT
BEFORE WINDS START TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND DROP TO AROUND 15 KT
THU NIGHT. 10 TO 15 KT NORTHWEST WINDS FRI DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KNOCKED DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OE THE PERIOD BY DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY MONDAY MORNING AS COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHILLY RAIN. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
WARMING TREND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 9:45 PM SUNDAY...ONE LAST LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS. LOOKS
LIKE DANGER OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. RELEVANT
PORTION OF DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
MOVING OFF THE NC/SC COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN LOW 40S NORTH ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR 50 ACROSS THE VERY
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT 12Z(7AM)...BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL
RESIDE OFFSHORE AT FIRST LIGHT OF MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DEEP NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS MON MORNING WILL DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ONLY REACHING CLOSER TO 60 FOR A HIGH TEMP.
AS ONE SHORTWAVE RIDES AROUND A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SHORE ON MONDAY...ANOTHER MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THE BACK END OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
PLACE LOCALLY IN NORTHEAST FLOW HEADING INTO TUES AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG COLD FRONT MEANDERING BACK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE GULF COAST AS THIS
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN AND THEN TRAVERSES EAST REACHING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUES. THE SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH FROM THE GA/FL COAST ON TUES PARALLELING THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH IN DRY AIR THROUGH
TUES MORNING. AS LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM THE WEST
TUES MORNING...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE S-SW AND
INCREASE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT THE
SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN NE. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SW THROUGH TUES MORNING BUT OVERALL
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ON BACK END OF LOW AS IT
TRAVELS UP THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST AND WILL
NOT DEEPEN APPRECIABLY UNTIL IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD HATTERAS AND
MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH WITH IT TOWARD HATTERAS. AS FOR
MID TO UPPER LEVELS DYNAMICS...BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA AND BEST JET ENERGY REMAINS
SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF TUES. WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS...NOT CONVINCED
LOCAL AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GREAT AMOUNT WITH THIS LOW. COUNTING
ON COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER TUES THROUGH WED MORNING WITH BEST CHC
OF RAIN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND PRIMARILY ALONG
THE COAST BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO FINE TUNE. ALSO WITH
POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST NOT
COMFORTABLE TRYING TO FORECAST EXACT AREAS OF LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE
AT THIS POINT AS LOW REMAINS WRAPPED TIGHT AND SMALL CHANGES COULD
MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST. SHOULD END UP BEING A LOWER END QPF
EVENT FOR INLAND WITH GREATER AMOUNTS MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE A
DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS TUES NIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S
MOST PLACES. THIS COOL START COMBINED WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL...JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES. LOW TEMPS ON
TUES NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WE DRY AND COOL ON THE BACK
END OF THE DEPARTING LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING NOR`EASTER WILL BE PULLING AWAY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE ILM CWA ON THE DEPARTING EDGE OF
THE STORM WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOW MUCH PRECIP REMAINS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACT POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST/FURTHEST WEST WHILE THE CMC/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES
REMAIN EAST. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT KEEPING SOME WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE RECENTLY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...AND KNOWING THAT THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DRY...WILL KEEP INHERITED BASICALLY
AS-IS...WITH SCHC POP EARLY WED ALONG THE NORTH/COAST...TRENDING TO
DRY BY WED EVE. AS THE NOR`EASTER MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST...W/NW
WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE THANKS TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND ADVANCING HIGH. THIS MEANS
THAT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY BY WED EVE AND THURSDAY...GUSTY WINDS
AND CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WKND...500MB RIDGE BULGES UP FROM THE
GULF COAST AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THESE WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER...WITH MAX TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE
CLIMO BY THE WKND...ALTHOUGH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL STILL
PERMIT MINS TO FALL TO THE LOW 40S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAS FINALLY MOVED
OFFSHORE...AND NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...
POST-FRONTAL -SHRA MAINLY VCSH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
UP TO A FEW HRS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK B4 MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR
GOOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS FOR BEING
LESS AGGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT.
FOR THE MOST PART A 3K TO 6 K FT DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INFILTRATES THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL
PREVAUIL WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING DAYLIGHT HRS OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS...FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM SUNDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED
TO THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CHANGEABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW COMPLEX MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THEN
PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE
20 KT GUSTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE LATE TONIGHT AS A
NORTH SURGE OF WIND PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER RELATIVELY MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND
HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND AROUND THE OCEAN SHOALS. NO CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE NEEDED FOR NOW...BUT THE SEA
WILL REMAIN BUMPY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WIND- SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN COLD
SURGE BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON MORNING. THEN
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH MON THROUGH TUES
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. THEREFORE WINDS DECREASE DOWN TO AROUND 15
KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH TUES MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN LATE TUES THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT RIDES UP THE OFF SHORE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW CENTER TO THE EAST
OF LOCAL WATERS AS IT TRACKS UP FROM THE SOUTH REACHING JUST EAST
OF LOCAL WATERS BY WED MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND
CONTINUED COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NIGHT. WNA SHOWS SEAS
REACHING UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS TUES NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT DO NOT HAVE WINDS EXCEEDING GALE THRESHOLD SO HAVE NO PLANS
TO RAISE GALE WATCH. ALTHOUGH GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...LOOKING
MORE LIKE A STRONG SCA EVENT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG W/NW WINDS WITH 3-6 FT SEAS TO START
THE PERIOD AS A DEEPENING NOR`EASTER SLOWLY PULLS AWAY UP THE COAST.
WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY WINDS SLOWLY
DECREASE...BUT REMAIN 15-20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THOUGH...HIGHEST SEAS GET PUSHED OUT OF THE COASTAL
WATERS SO WAVE AMPLITUDES FALL TO 2-3 FT THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE FRIDAY BUT WITH EVEN WEAKER SPEEDS...AND SEAS DROP TO JUST
1-2 FT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
526 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
238 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY IS WITH HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER HOLDS ON FOR INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WHERE A COLD FRONT
WILL END UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WARM FRONT RATHER THAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR DULUTH WILL QUICKLY DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE WITH BROAD
TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH COOL AIR COMING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN TONIGHT IT WILL KEEP SOME HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH STEEP SURFACE TO 800MB
LAPSE RATES BASED ON 06.12Z NAM/GFS AND 06.18Z RAP SOUNDINGS. WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP INTO THE
-10C RANGE AROUND 10KFT...SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP/MOVE
IN WITH THE LOW THIS EVENING. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH MEANS THAT ICE WILL STOP BEING GENERATED AND THE
THERMAL PROFILE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE. ANY LOW LEVEL
OMEGA APPEARS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...SO THE DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY THEN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON
FOR...BUT HAVE GONE THE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 06.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER A SINKING INVERSION THAT DROPS TO
AROUND 4KFT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER...HAVE
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND THEN LOWERED THEM
A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 06.12Z GUIDANCE
IS TO BRING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IOWA TO A
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN
STALL AND TRANSITION TO BEING A WARM FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN AS THE LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. WENT DRY
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THE 06.12Z GFS SHOWS ENOUGH
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
238 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS WITH THE BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT
THAT BRINGS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA ON
SATURDAY WHERE 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO THE WEST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME INSTABILITY HOLDS ON INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT IS RATHER SKINNY AND WEAKENS AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT QUESTION
IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL GET IN FAST ENOUGH WITH
THE PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING THAT IT WOULD CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW. THE 06.12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WHILE THE 06.12Z ECMWF HOLDS ONTO IT A BIT
LONGER WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD
END UP BEING MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE SNOW OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
AROUND -12C WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR
HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
526 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS HAVE RISEN INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT BOTH
SITES...BUT GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS...DO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
POINT EXPECT CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE 012-020 KFOOT RANGE...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KRST LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THAT OUT. EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
MVFR. WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AT KRST AFTER 21Z...BUT
NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
238 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
326 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN AND ALSO CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER REMAINING POTENTIALLY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT DEGREE OF WARM-UP WILL BE
REALIZED AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...PROVIDING THE
FINAL CHALLENGE OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTINCT POTENT SHORT WAVES HAS EVOLVED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
MORNING. FINAL SHORT WAVE IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG 120+ KNOT NORTH-TO-SOUTH JET
IS LINED UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL HELP TO
PROGRESS THIS SOUTH. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS STRONG JET THROUGH TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHEAR
VORTICITY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH FOR SUPPRESSION TO HELP SCOUR
CLOUDS. AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ON THE EARLY MORNING
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL. LAST NIGHTS RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP...GENERALLY AROUND 15KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE BAGGY LOW-
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED FROM WI THROUGH THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING...THE WIND FLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND CERTAINLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. MOST MODELS SEEM
TOO QUICK TO BREAK UP A LOT OF THE CLOUDS IN THEIR HUMIDITY
SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY DO AGREE ON A LIGHT WIND FIELD BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DISSIPATION OF SUCH A DEEP CLOUD
LAYER. SO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM SCOURING AND HAVE INCREASED THE
DURATION OF THE CLOUDS BY QUITE A WHILE...EXTENDING THEM INTO
TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN ALOFT
TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AND INCREASE THEREAFTER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND ADVECT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K LAYER IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL EXACTLY WHERE RADAR DEPICTS DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORT
FADES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING...AND NOT REALLY UNTIL LATE
MORNING AT THAT. MULTIPLE SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND ON REFLECTIVITY. SO HAVE SOME MENTION FOR DRIZZLE WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH. THE CLOUDS WITH
THE LOW ANGLE SUN AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL
SPREAD FAR LOWER THAN THE NORMAL 16-18 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MORNING ALONE PLACES MAY ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST.
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIG CHALLENGE AND DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER COULD VARY UP TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. HAVE TRENDED
WARMER FOR AREAS WHERE WE THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SEEM THE MOST PROBABLE TO
POTENTIALLY CLEAR. WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THEN A COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY...SUCH CLEARING WOULD VERY LIKELY FAVOR FOG AND
EVEN DENSE FOG AT THAT. HAVE ADDED THE DENSE POSSIBILITY ONTO THE
GOING FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO FURTHER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EACH DAY
PROGRESSIVELY WARMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY. THE LEAD PUSH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MORE STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THICKNESS
DIFFLUENCE AND SURPRISINGLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE REASONABLE
WITH THIS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER...BUT FORECAST DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE GOING PLACEMENT OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEMS VERY GOOD TO CAPTURE THESE
POSSIBILITIES...AND HAVE IN GENERAL MADE FEW CHANGES THERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT SEEMINGLY IF CLOUDS EARLY HOLD THINGS BACK. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD. THE 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY A
07.00Z EC/GFS BLEND ARE +14C. GIVEN JUST 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOCAL RESEARCH CLIMATOLOGY FOR CHICAGO
SUPPORTS A MEDIAN HIGH OF 67 WITH 70 BEING THE UPPER 25TH
PERCENTILE. SO THE 70 DEGREE MARK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY IF WE START THE DAY SUNNY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING BUT WILL HAVE AN EVEN WARM STARTING POINT...LIKELY
AROUND 50 DEGREES. SO A FORECAST OF AT LEAST LOWER TO MID 60S
AREA WIDE ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS HAS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS MANY DAYS OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THAT FRONTAL TIMING BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
EARLIER ACTIVITY AS MENTIONED ABOVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE RAIN LIKELIHOOD ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW IN THE FORECAST. SOME
THUNDER CERTAINLY REMAINS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC
PROJECTION. COLDER AND THEN DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN ON
MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE IF THAT COLDER AIR
WILL CATCH UP TO THE FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES CALL FOR FALLING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* IFR CIGS WITH BASES AT OVC006-OO8 THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* CIGS IMPROVING TO LOWER RANGE MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND REMAINING
THERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...CHANCE CIGS MAY REMAIN IFR LONGER.
* VIS OF 2-4SM IN -DZ/BR...CHANCE VIS COULD LOWER TO 1SM UNTIL
DAYBREAK.
* VIS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...CHANCE THAT VIS MAY REMAIN MVFR LONGER.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WEAK...DIFFUSE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WITH SFC
WINDS AT 5KT OR LESS AND SOME INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR AT MID
LEVELS...PCPN IS TRANSIONING OVER TO DRIZZLE...WHILE CIGS REMAIN
AT IFR LEVELS. BASES ARE OVC006-008 AT ORD/MDW...BUT BASES ARE
LOWER...OVC003-004 OVER THE MORE RURAL AREAS...INCLUDING RFD.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS MORE NORTHERLY...WITH A PUSH OF COOLER...DRIER AIR AT THE
SFC BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE REMAINS
A CHANCE THAT THE IFR CONDITIONS MAY HANG IN LONGER THAN INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED. IT IS A BIT MORE CERTAIN THAT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. DIRECTION IS LESS
DEFINITIVE IN THE WEAK GRADIENT SITUATION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
BE SELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NLY-
NELY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
BY TOMORROW EVENING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGIONS TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA LIGHT...BUT SKY COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE EXTENT OF CLEARING SKIES. AT THIS TIME...WILL WILL REINTRODUCE
3-4SM VIS INTO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VIS IN FG/BR.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO LIFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT WHEN CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR THAN VIS MAY DROP TO MVFR
IR IFR IN BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW NIGHT.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC RA.
SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
HAS GENERATED 10 TO 20 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OF BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST
TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAKE AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT LEAST 30KT FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES SOME WHILE TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTH
GALES DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
JAMES BAY WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE...BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A RAPID
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
338 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
AND CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY TRACKING DOWN MID MS RIVER SHOWS
UP NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEEPER FORCING AND CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF IA INTO IL. HOWEVER
STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA WITH MOISTURE 1.5KM
AND BELOW PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER RAP 280K
ISENT LAYER SUGGESTS UVM AND MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY
THAT THIS SHOULD END BY 12Z.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DECREASE AND THIN THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CLOUDS BECOMING CELLULAR IN SHALLOW MIXING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES WITH SOUNDINGS ONLY
SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
SATURDAY...THEN WITH TIMING OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STILL THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. GOOD WAA AND ENOUGH MIXING WILL
PUT TEMPS NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. 850MB
TEMPS WARM TO +10-12C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MIXING
LOOKS TO BE ONLY UP TO 900MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THE WAA CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALONG THE 295K TO 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES...CLOUD
COVER MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE MAX TEMPS. THINKING WITH THE WARM
START FRIDAY MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE SURGE OF SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST EVEN WITH THE
CLOUD COVER PRESENT. KEPT ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO WARRANT THE MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN IOWA. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH
SATURATION BELOW 800MB AT MCW/ALO/DSM. SO KEPT WITH SLIGHT POPS
B/T 00-12Z SATURDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICTING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HAVE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
WARM FRONT SURGING INTO MN/WI AREA. DECREASED POPS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND NO TRIGGER UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY STRONG MIXING AND
WAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF
SOME ON THE VERY GUSTY WINDS...BUT STILL EXPECTING A WINDY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z SUNDAY...AND CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WITH
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLUMN LOSES ICE INTRODUCTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE DRIZZLE/FZDZ INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE STRONG CAA INTO THE STATE. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTION ATTM.
.MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...CAA CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND LIKELY WILL
SEE SOME LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING NOT DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL...BUT
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL RH GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. REGARDLESS...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT GET
ABOVE FREEZING IN NORTHERN IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z
STATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER SYSTEM ACRS WI/IL DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CEILING WILL REMAIN VFR ON THE BACKSIDE BUT
LOCATIONS FROM KMCW...KALO AND EVEN KOTM WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE STATE AND TO THE EAST.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
355 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE BASIC LONGWAVE CONFIGURATION OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST (CONUS) CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE RIDGE
AXIS OUT WEST WAS SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMED OFF
THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS. A NOREASTER
WAS UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PROCESS JUST OFF THE NEW
JERSEY/DELAWARE COAST. CLOSER TO HOME, A BROAD 1020MB HIGH EXTENDED
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MUCH OF TEXAS.
LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS WERE FOUND ALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE WAS UNDERGOING
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MONTANA IN ADVANCE OF A FORMIDABLE PACIFIC JET
CORE WHICH WAS NOSING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES PER RAP ANALYSIS AND
WV LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES. THE REMNANT COOL AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CERTAINLY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON HOW WARM
SOME PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION WILL GET. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OFF THE MODELS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF RANGE FROM
+21C AT ELKHART AT 00Z THIS EVENING TO ONLY +11C ALONG A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. AS LEESIDE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AM ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 64 TO 67F RANGE (HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE), WITH 77-79F COMMON FOR HIGHS FROM SYRACUSE TO
JOHNSON TO ELKHART CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL NUDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 TO THE COLORADO BORDER. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 32 TO 34F RANGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A HIGHWAY 83 LINE. FARTHER EAST (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS), TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S WITH MEAN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT 11 TO 14
KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
ON THURSDAY A WARM AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTERN KANSAS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. 850 MB TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND 12C TO AROUND 16C ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. IF
THE CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH IT COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY.
A STRONG UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY
WITH A WARM AIRMASS CONTINUING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A
SURFACE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD AIRMASS DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE. ON TUESDAY, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE
PLAINS, WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH, EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING TO BE AROUND 40 DEGREES,
THEN RISE INTO THE MILD 40S AND 50S INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND ONLY IN THE 20S ON MONDAY MORNING.
BY TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL MODERATE A BIT BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE VERY MILD ON THURSDAY AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70
AT HAYS TO AROUND 80 AT ELKHART AND LIBERAL. HIGHS THEN WARM TO NEAR
80 ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL COOL INTO
THE 40S, WITH HIGHS THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECAILLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS UP AND DOWN THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 36 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 78 38 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 75 35 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 42 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
329 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...-RA/-DZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER IL WITH
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH INTO WESTERN ONT. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SFC
OBS SHOWED A RATHER SOLID STRATUS SHIELD OVER MOST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
AND INVERSION NEAR 775MB. TEMPS RATHER UNIFORM UNDER THE CLOUD DECK
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE CLOUDS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD LINES UP
QUITE WELL WITH THE 925-850MB 70-80 PERCENT MEAN RH. FOG WAS COMMON
ACROSS WI/IL...ALONG/EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WHERE WINDS
REMAINED LIGHT/VARIABLE.
07.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS QUITE CONSISTENT AND SOLUTIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR FOR TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES LOOK TO BE
WITH PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 07.00Z
SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z AND 06.00Z VERIFIED REASONABLY WELL
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO GFS.
MODELS OFFER A GOOD CONSENSUS AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT...BUT FOR THE 05.00Z NAM RUN. THIS WITH A
RATHER AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z
SHOWED ALL TO BE REASONABLE WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AGAIN HANDLING THE REGIONAL STRATUS DECK WELL. PER
WV IMAGERY ALL APPEARED SIMILAR AND GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS
OVER NOAM. A MODEL BLEND LOOKED BEST WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS
THE MID/ UPPER MS VALLEY. NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AND WITH MODELS
OFFERING A RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS THRU FRI NIGHT...AGAIN FAVORED A
MODEL/ ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD THIS
CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPARTURE WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PER LAPS/MODEL SOUNDINGS MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE A FEW THOUSAND FT DEEP IN/UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 775MB. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND LOWER TODAY WITH GRADIENT WIND FLOW IN/UNDER THE INVERSION
QUITE LIGHT...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THE PROSPECTS OF SCOURING OUT THE
STRATUS CLOUDS. INCREASED/LINGERED MORE CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS TODAY...
AND TRENDED SOME OF THIS INTO TONIGHT. 925-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EAST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING/CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB AHEAD OF
THE TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING.
BEST SHOT AT SOME SUNSHINE THE REST OF THIS WEEK APPEARS TO BE THU
AFTERNOON. THIS IN A BREAK IN THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH BEGINS TO ARRIVE. ONE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRAGGED INTO THE AREA BY A SHORTWAVE/LOW
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN THU NIGH/FRI. THIS WHILE FALLING
PRESSURES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INCREASING SOUTHERN FLOW THRU
THE MID MS VALLEY DEVELOP A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA/NORTHERN IL FRI. THESE 2 BOUNDARIES AND RESULTING TROUGHING
ACROSS IA INTO WI WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LIFTING OF THE INCREASING
GULF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
TO BE TRAPPED IN/UNDER ANOTHER INVERSION FRI/FRI NIGHT. LEFT FRI DRY
WITH LIMITED DEPTH OF SATURATION...THE INVERSION AND BULK OF 850-
700MB WARM ADVECTION LOOKING TO GO INTO WARMING.
DEPTH OF SATURATION INCREASES FRI NIGHT...UP TO A COUPLE KILOMETERS
DEEP UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT IN THE
SUB-INVERSION LAYER AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR NEAR THE INVERSION
LAYER...AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH LIFTING NORTH INTO THE
AREA. ALL THIS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR -DZ/VERY LIGHT -RA FRI NIGHT.
GIVEN THE CAPPING NEAR 750MB AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING/LIFT
SIGNALS OUTSIDE OF THAT BELOW THE INVERSION...LEFT -DZ/-RA CHANCES
FRI NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HIGHS/LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED. DID NOT
STRAY FAR FROM THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THRU FRI. A SHORT PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT OR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY COULD MAKE A
DIFFERENCE OF 5F OR MORE ON THE LOW OR HIGH TEMPS ANY ONE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
1029 AM +ST WED NOV 7 2012
07.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
DAY 4-7 PERIOD. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT-TUE REMAINS AVERAGE TO
GOOD. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SAT WITH A RATHER
STRONG SFC LOW LIFTING INTO MN. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS EXPECTED
BUT THE AREA ENDS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR SAT. MAIN FORCING/LIFT
REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SAT BUT A 20-35 PERCENT -SHRA
CHANCE PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOT UNREASONABLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE WEAK CAPE OVER THE AREA SAT SO CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA EITHER.
BIGGER QUESTION SAT IS EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. WITH SATURATION INDICATED IN THE SFC-900MB
LAYER BELOW A MDT/STRONG INVERSION WOULD APPEAR AREA MAY REMAIN
UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK. STAYED WITH A MOSTLY CLOUD FCST ON SAT AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WITH ANY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THOUGH...HIGHS COULD
TOP 70...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA.
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO/ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN AS
THE LOW LIFT TO NORTH OF LS SUPERIOR. DEEP SATURATION AND DEEP
LAYERED FORCING/LIFT MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY LATER
SAT NIGHT/SUN. SOME CAPE TO 250 J/KG CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED SAT
NIGHT AS WELL. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE/CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL
SIGNAL...SHRA CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. SMALL
TSRA CHANCE ALSO REMAINS SAT NIGHT. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY HERE IS
WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS MAY FALL...AS APPEARS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN.
POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
QUESTION REMAINS WILL THE COLD AIR ARRIVE BEFORE THE LIFT/DEEPER
MOISTURE EXIT...ALLOWING FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING/MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR A CHANCE OF -SN AS THE PRECIP ENDS/MOVES OUT
SUN NIGHT. MON/TUE TREND DRY/COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSES AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU APPEAR WELL
TRENDED AT THIS TIME WITH NO CHANGES MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1132 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND IF CLOUDS
CLEAR DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH BOTH TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEING REPORTED. LARGE STRATUS
DECK SEEN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER.
CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE 07.03Z RAP AND 07.00Z NAM SHOWING LOWEST LAYERS TO REMAIN
SATURATED AND EXPECT THESE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE RISING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. NAM HAS
COME IN MORE PESSIMISTIC IN CLEARING THE SKIES...WITH 90 PERCENT
925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD ALL
THE WAY THROUGH 06Z. THUS DID SLOW THE CLEARING AT KRST UNTIL
03Z AND KEPT A BROKEN VFR DECK AT KLSE THROUGH 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
329 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
238 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY IS WITH HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER HOLDS ON FOR INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WHERE A COLD FRONT
WILL END UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WARM FRONT RATHER THAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR DULUTH WILL QUICKLY DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE WITH BROAD
TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH COOL AIR COMING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN TONIGHT IT WILL KEEP SOME HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH STEEP SURFACE TO 800MB
LAPSE RATES BASED ON 06.12Z NAM/GFS AND 06.18Z RAP SOUNDINGS. WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP INTO THE
-10C RANGE AROUND 10KFT...SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP/MOVE
IN WITH THE LOW THIS EVENING. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH MEANS THAT ICE WILL STOP BEING GENERATED AND THE
THERMAL PROFILE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE. ANY LOW LEVEL
OMEGA APPEARS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...SO THE DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY THEN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON
FOR...BUT HAVE GONE THE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 06.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER A SINKING INVERSION THAT DROPS TO
AROUND 4KFT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER...HAVE
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND THEN LOWERED THEM
A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 06.12Z GUIDANCE
IS TO BRING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IOWA TO A
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN
STALL AND TRANSITION TO BEING A WARM FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN AS THE LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. WENT DRY
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THE 06.12Z GFS SHOWS ENOUGH
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
238 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS WITH THE BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT
THAT BRINGS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA ON
SATURDAY WHERE 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO THE WEST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME INSTABILITY HOLDS ON INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT IS RATHER SKINNY AND WEAKENS AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT QUESTION
IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL GET IN FAST ENOUGH WITH
THE PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING THAT IT WOULD CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW. THE 06.12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WHILE THE 06.12Z ECMWF HOLDS ONTO IT A BIT
LONGER WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD
END UP BEING MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE SNOW OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
AROUND -12C WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR
HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1132 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND IF CLOUDS
CLEAR DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH BOTH TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEING REPORTED. LARGE STRATUS
DECK SEEN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER.
CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE 07.03Z RAP AND 07.00Z NAM SHOWING LOWEST LAYERS TO REMAIN
SATURATED AND EXPECT THESE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE RISING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. NAM HAS
COME IN MORE PESSIMISTIC IN CLEARING THE SKIES...WITH 90 PERCENT
925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD ALL
THE WAY THROUGH 06Z. THUS DID SLOW THE CLEARING AT KRST UNTIL
03Z AND KEPT A BROKEN VFR DECK AT KLSE THROUGH 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
238 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1036 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR EASTER STORM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE JERSEY SHORE TODAY TO NEAR
CAPE COD TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
BEHIND THIS STORM...MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST...THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE WNW...INTO SW CT AND WESTERN LI. 12Z UA SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...HOWEVER THUS FAR THE
PRECIP HAS BEEN ADVANCING SEEMINGLY UNIMPEDED BY THE DRY AIR.
STRONG FORCING/FGEN TO THE N AND W OF INTENSIFYING STORM CENTER
HAS CREATED BANDING OF PRECIP...AND SOME OF THESE BANDS WILL
LIKELY REACH BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LATEST RUC 13 ALSO INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF MODERATE OR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TO REACH
THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY MID
LEVEL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WET BULB COOLING FAVORABLE
FOR MAINLY SNOW ONCE PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES. SO...ALTHOUGH
NO ADVISORIES ARE INDICATED AT THIS TIME...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE...THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
BE ISSUED FOR BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD COS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW ACCUM TO THE 3-6
INCH RANGE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 12Z/NAM...AND RUC13
OUTPUT. WILL AWAIT 12Z/GFS DATA BEFORE MAKING FINAL MIDDAY
DECISIONS ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AND INCREASING SNOW TOTALS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES TODAY...GENERALLY
ONLY INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY ACTUALLY FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP AND ENSUING WET BULB COOLING
COMMENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL
SNOW TONIGHT...HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WEST...THEN A WARM NOSE ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOME IP/FZRA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR THE
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WAS LOW...THIS
WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE LOST AS VIRGA DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE VERY SIMILAR FOR QPF ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00 UTC GEFS
PLUMES SHOWED LITTLE SPREAD...HOWEVER...THE 03 UTC SREF PLUMES DID
CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A VARIETY OF QPF RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. IN
OUR FORECAST...WE WENT WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF THROUGH TONIGHT
RANGING FROM ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE CAPITAL REGION
AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND TWO TO FOUR TENTHS FOR THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE BEST SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR...AND VALLEYS AREAS MAY HAVE A
LITTLE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW AT FIRST DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
WARM AND POSSIBLY WET GROUND. BASICALLY...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...ONE TO THREE INCHES FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND TWO TO FOUR INCHES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS FALLS SHORT OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA /FOUR INCHES
AVERAGE WOULD BE NEEDED/ SO NO HEADLINES ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS
TIME...BUT MODEL QPF WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED CLOSELY...ESP
CONSIDERING THE SPREAD IN THE 03 UTC SREF PLUMES.
WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG...ALLOWING
FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT THE GFS/NAM DO
SHOW 40-50 KTS AT AROUND 2-3 KFT OVER NW CT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN TODAY. SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST...ESP FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS FALLS JUST SHORT OF
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY SO NO WIND HEADLINES ARE BEING
ISSUED...BUT IF WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY MODELED OR
IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS...THEN A SHORT FUSE WIND ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
BY THURSDAY...PRECIP WILL BE ENDING IN THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST
TO EAST...AND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR. WITH THE PRECIP LIGHTENING UP AND ICE NUCLEI DECREASING IN
THE CLOUD DECK...THE PRECIP MAY END AS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR VALLEY AREAS. IF SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE FZDZ POSSIBLY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. BY
AFTN...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDINESS AND TEMPS RISING. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AFTN WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE PERSIST TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DIGGING TROUGH.
ACROSS OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WELL EAST FROM THE LOW
SHOULD GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MAINLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRAG ITS
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z-18Z TUESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND
START NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS COASTAL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS MID
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COAST LOW
MOVES INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. KPOU AND KPSF WILL BE IMPACTED THE
MOST WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
INITIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO
MIX IN WITH THE SNOW CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR.
KALB WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT THEN
MVFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY
AT KPOU...KPSF AND KALB WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THU...BRISK. VFR-MVFR. CHC OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AT KPOU...KPSF
AND KALB IN THE MORNING WITH CHANCES DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF.
THU NIGHT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A COASTAL STORM WILL BRUSH THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY START AS LIGHT RAIN IN VALLEY
AREAS LATE TOADY...BUT IT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY END AS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST...TO UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF
AN INCH FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS SNOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE RESPONSE ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
854 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN AND ALSO CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER REMAINING POTENTIALLY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT DEGREE OF WARM-UP WILL BE
REALIZED AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...PROVIDING THE
FINAL CHALLENGE OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTINCT POTENT SHORT WAVES HAS EVOLVED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
MORNING. FINAL SHORT WAVE IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG 120+ KNOT NORTH-TO-SOUTH JET
IS LINED UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL HELP TO
PROGRESS THIS SOUTH. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS STRONG JET THROUGH TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHEAR
VORTICITY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH FOR SUPPRESSION TO HELP SCOUR
CLOUDS. AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ON THE EARLY MORNING
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL. LAST NIGHTS RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP...GENERALLY AROUND 15KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE BAGGY LOW-
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED FROM WI THROUGH THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING...THE WIND FLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND CERTAINLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. MOST MODELS SEEM
TOO QUICK TO BREAK UP A LOT OF THE CLOUDS IN THEIR HUMIDITY
SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY DO AGREE ON A LIGHT WIND FIELD BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DISSIPATION OF SUCH A DEEP CLOUD
LAYER. SO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM SCOURING AND HAVE INCREASED THE
DURATION OF THE CLOUDS BY QUITE A WHILE...EXTENDING THEM INTO
TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN ALOFT
TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AND INCREASE THEREAFTER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND ADVECT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K LAYER IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL EXACTLY WHERE RADAR DEPICTS DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORT
FADES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING...AND NOT REALLY UNTIL LATE
MORNING AT THAT. MULTIPLE SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND ON REFLECTIVITY. SO HAVE SOME MENTION FOR DRIZZLE WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH. THE CLOUDS WITH
THE LOW ANGLE SUN AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL
SPREAD FAR LOWER THAN THE NORMAL 16-18 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MORNING ALONE PLACES MAY ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST.
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIG CHALLENGE AND DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER COULD VARY UP TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. HAVE TRENDED
WARMER FOR AREAS WHERE WE THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SEEM THE MOST PROBABLE TO
POTENTIALLY CLEAR. WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THEN A COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY...SUCH CLEARING WOULD VERY LIKELY FAVOR FOG AND
EVEN DENSE FOG AT THAT. HAVE ADDED THE DENSE POSSIBILITY ONTO THE
GOING FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO FURTHER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EACH DAY
PROGRESSIVELY WARMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY. THE LEAD PUSH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MORE STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THICKNESS
DIFLUENCE AND SURPRISINGLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE REASONABLE
WITH THIS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER...BUT FORECAST DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE GOING PLACEMENT OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEMS VERY GOOD TO CAPTURE THESE
POSSIBILITIES...AND HAVE IN GENERAL MADE FEW CHANGES THERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT SEEMINGLY IF CLOUDS EARLY HOLD THINGS BACK. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD. THE 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY A
07.00Z EC/GFS BLEND ARE +14C. GIVEN JUST 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOCAL RESEARCH CLIMATOLOGY FOR CHICAGO
SUPPORTS A MEDIAN HIGH OF 67 WITH 70 BEING THE UPPER 25TH
PERCENTILE. SO THE 70 DEGREE MARK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY IF WE START THE DAY SUNNY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING BUT WILL HAVE AN EVEN WARM STARTING POINT...LIKELY
AROUND 50 DEGREES. SO A FORECAST OF AT LEAST LOWER TO MID 60S
AREA WIDE ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS HAS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS MANY DAYS OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THAT FRONTAL TIMING BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
EARLIER ACTIVITY AS MENTIONED ABOVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE RAIN LIKELIHOOD ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW IN THE FORECAST. SOME
THUNDER CERTAINLY REMAINS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC
PROJECTION. COLDER AND THEN DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN ON
MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE IF THAT COLDER AIR
WILL CATCH UP TO THE FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES CALL FOR FALLING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* MVFR VSBYS TIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL -DZ.
* MVFR VIS WITH BR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR IN FG OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
MOST OF WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE PAST 2 HRS. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL WITH ISENTROPIC SFCS INDICATING TOTAL LOSS OF
MID LVL UPGLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA 12-15Z...WITH IR SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWING LOSS OF MID LVL CLOUDS AND WITH LLVL UPGLIDE BECOMING
MINIMAL AT BEST BY 16Z PER LATEST RUC MODEL RUN. DO NOT WANT TO
RUSH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS WE TEND TO DO SOMETIMES BUT APPEARS
THAT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTING IN AS INVERTED SFC
TROF DRIFTS A BIT FURTHER TO THE W THAT SHUD STA PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS ACROSS CHI AREA THRU AFTERNOON.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEAK...DIFFUSE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH
ILLINOIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LIGHT PCPN
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER NWRN IN/NERN IL...SO THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME -DZ/-RA AT THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS MORNING. LATEST CIG TRENDS SHOW CIGS LIFTING TO
MVFR...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST OCNL IFR THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE SFC LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND SOME DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BE
EARLY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO ERODE...BUT WITH SFC
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR VIS TO DROP TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. EXACTLY HOW LOW VIS WILL DROP TONIGHT IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
PRESENT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO ADDITIONAL SIG -RA/-DZ.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR LATE TONIGHT THRU PCPN TRENDS THIS
MORNING.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT LATE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE RA .
SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
HAS GENERATED 10 TO 20 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OF BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST
TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAKE AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT LEAST 30KT FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES SOME WHILE TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTH
GALES DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
JAMES BAY WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE...BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A RAPID
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN AND ALSO CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER REMAINING POTENTIALLY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT DEGREE OF WARM-UP WILL BE
REALIZED AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...PROVIDING THE
FINAL CHALLENGE OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTINCT POTENT SHORT WAVES HAS EVOLVED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
MORNING. FINAL SHORT WAVE IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG 120+ KNOT NORTH-TO-SOUTH JET
IS LINED UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL HELP TO
PROGRESS THIS SOUTH. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS STRONG JET THROUGH TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHEAR
VORTICITY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH FOR SUPPRESSION TO HELP SCOUR
CLOUDS. AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ON THE EARLY MORNING
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL. LAST NIGHTS RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP...GENERALLY AROUND 15KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE BAGGY LOW-
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED FROM WI THROUGH THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING...THE WIND FLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND CERTAINLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. MOST MODELS SEEM
TOO QUICK TO BREAK UP A LOT OF THE CLOUDS IN THEIR HUMIDITY
SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY DO AGREE ON A LIGHT WIND FIELD BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DISSIPATION OF SUCH A DEEP CLOUD
LAYER. SO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM SCOURING AND HAVE INCREASED THE
DURATION OF THE CLOUDS BY QUITE A WHILE...EXTENDING THEM INTO
TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN ALOFT
TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AND INCREASE THEREAFTER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND ADVECT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K LAYER IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL EXACTLY WHERE RADAR DEPICTS DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORT
FADES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING...AND NOT REALLY UNTIL LATE
MORNING AT THAT. MULTIPLE SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND ON REFLECTIVITY. SO HAVE SOME MENTION FOR DRIZZLE WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH. THE CLOUDS WITH
THE LOW ANGLE SUN AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL
SPREAD FAR LOWER THAN THE NORMAL 16-18 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MORNING ALONE PLACES MAY ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST.
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIG CHALLENGE AND DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER COULD VARY UP TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. HAVE TRENDED
WARMER FOR AREAS WHERE WE THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SEEM THE MOST PROBABLE TO
POTENTIALLY CLEAR. WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THEN A COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY...SUCH CLEARING WOULD VERY LIKELY FAVOR FOG AND
EVEN DENSE FOG AT THAT. HAVE ADDED THE DENSE POSSIBILITY ONTO THE
GOING FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO FURTHER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EACH DAY
PROGRESSIVELY WARMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY. THE LEAD PUSH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MORE STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THICKNESS
DIFFLUENCE AND SURPRISINGLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE REASONABLE
WITH THIS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER...BUT FORECAST DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE GOING PLACEMENT OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEMS VERY GOOD TO CAPTURE THESE
POSSIBILITIES...AND HAVE IN GENERAL MADE FEW CHANGES THERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT SEEMINGLY IF CLOUDS EARLY HOLD THINGS BACK. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD. THE 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY A
07.00Z EC/GFS BLEND ARE +14C. GIVEN JUST 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOCAL RESEARCH CLIMATOLOGY FOR CHICAGO
SUPPORTS A MEDIAN HIGH OF 67 WITH 70 BEING THE UPPER 25TH
PERCENTILE. SO THE 70 DEGREE MARK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY IF WE START THE DAY SUNNY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING BUT WILL HAVE AN EVEN WARM STARTING POINT...LIKELY
AROUND 50 DEGREES. SO A FORECAST OF AT LEAST LOWER TO MID 60S
AREA WIDE ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS HAS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS MANY DAYS OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THAT FRONTAL TIMING BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
EARLIER ACTIVITY AS MENTIONED ABOVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE RAIN LIKELIHOOD ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW IN THE FORECAST. SOME
THUNDER CERTAINLY REMAINS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC
PROJECTION. COLDER AND THEN DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN ON
MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE IF THAT COLDER AIR
WILL CATCH UP TO THE FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES CALL FOR FALLING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* CHANCE FOR LINGERING IFR CIGS/VIS UNTIL ARND 15Z.
* GRADUALLY LIFTING MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* MVFR VIS IN -DZ/BR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR VIS IN BR/FG TONIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEAK...DIFFUSE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SAGING SWD THROUGH
ILLINOIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LIGHT PCPN
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER NWRN IN/NERN IL...SO THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME -DZ/-RA AT THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS MORNING. LATEST CIG TRENDS SHOW CIGS LIFTING TO
MVFR...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST OCNL IFR THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE SFC LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND SOME DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIMESECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BE
EARLY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO ERODE...BUT WITH SFC
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR VIS TO DROP TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. EXACTLY HOW LOW VIS WILL DROP TONIGHT IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
PRESENT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS THIS MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS THIS MORNING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT LATE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE RA .
SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
HAS GENERATED 10 TO 20 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OF BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST
TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAKE AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT LEAST 30KT FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES SOME WHILE TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTH
GALES DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
JAMES BAY WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE...BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A RAPID
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
545 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
AND CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY TRACKING DOWN MID MS RIVER SHOWS
UP NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEEPER FORCING AND CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF IA INTO IL. HOWEVER
STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA WITH MOISTURE 1.5KM
AND BELOW PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER RAP 280K
ISENT LAYER SUGGESTS UVM AND MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY
THAT THIS SHOULD END BY 12Z.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DECREASE AND THIN THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CLOUDS BECOMING CELLULAR IN SHALLOW MIXING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES WITH SOUNDINGS ONLY
SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE SATURDAY...THEN WITH TIMING OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. GOOD WAA AND ENOUGH MIXING WILL PUT TEMPS
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO +10-12C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MIXING LOOKS TO BE ONLY
UP TO 900MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 295K TO
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES...CLOUD COVER MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE MAX
TEMPS. THINKING WITH THE WARM START FRIDAY MORNING...COMBINED WITH
THE SURGE OF SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER PRESENT. KEPT ONGOING
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE NORTH AND EAST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO WARRANT THE MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN IOWA. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH
SATURATION BELOW 800MB AT MCW/ALO/DSM. SO KEPT WITH SLIGHT POPS
B/T 00-12Z SATURDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICTING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HAVE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH WARM
FRONT SURGING INTO MN/WI AREA. DECREASED POPS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND NO TRIGGER UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY STRONG MIXING AND WAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF SOME
ON THE VERY GUSTY WINDS...BUT STILL EXPECTING A WINDY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY.
FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z SUNDAY...AND CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WITH
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLUMN LOSES ICE INTRODUCTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE DRIZZLE/FZDZ INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE STRONG CAA INTO THE STATE. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTION ATTM.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...CAA CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND LIKELY WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDING NOT DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL...BUT GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL RH GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. REGARDLESS...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING IN
NORTHERN IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...07/12Z
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOW END VFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA AT 12Z...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF KEST/KPRO/KLWD LINE.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING EARLY THIS MORNING SO ONLY EXPECT
LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR STRATUS INTO MIDDAY...GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST AND BECOMING
MORE SCT/CELLULAR BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...NW THEN SSE
AS SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES STATE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
610 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE BASIC LONGWAVE CONFIGURATION OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST (CONUS) CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE RIDGE
AXIS OUT WEST WAS SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMED OFF
THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS. A NOREASTER
WAS UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PROCESS JUST OFF THE NEW
JERSEY/DELAWARE COAST. CLOSER TO HOME, A BROAD 1020MB HIGH EXTENDED
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MUCH OF TEXAS.
LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS WERE FOUND ALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE WAS UNDERGOING
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MONTANA IN ADVANCE OF A FORMIDABLE PACIFIC JET
CORE WHICH WAS NOSING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES PER RAP ANALYSIS AND
WV LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES. THE REMNANT COOL AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CERTAINLY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON HOW WARM
SOME PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION WILL GET. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OFF THE MODELS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF RANGE FROM
+21C AT ELKHART AT 00Z THIS EVENING TO ONLY +11C ALONG A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. AS LEESIDE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AM ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 64 TO 67F RANGE (HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE), WITH 77-79F COMMON FOR HIGHS FROM SYRACUSE TO
JOHNSON TO ELKHART CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL NUDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 TO THE COLORADO BORDER. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 32 TO 34F RANGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A HIGHWAY 83 LINE. FARTHER EAST (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS), TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S WITH MEAN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT 11 TO 14
KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE GREATEST EXCITEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 140W THAT IS DIGGING TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
ALASKA IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF THE DEEP
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT MAY SURGE
SOUTHWARD AS A DENSITY CURRENT FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER
SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COHERENT TROPICAL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN PROPAGATING TOWARD
THE MARITIME CONTINENT. THE MODELS STILL ARE STRUGGLING WITH
EVOLUTION OF THE CLUSTER, AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF PROPAGATING AT
LEAST A WEAK MJO INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY AROUND 15 NOVEMBER
SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. WITH THE MJO LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PHASE 6 OF
THE WHEELER/HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, A BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHOULD
EVOLVE. THIS WILL FAVOR A MILD REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR INVASION OF COLD CANADIAN AIR. PHASE 6
CORRELATES WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CHANCES IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND 16 NOVEMBER IS VERY REASONABLE.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL REACH SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PLANNED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, REACHING NORTHERN KANSAS BY NOON
THURSDAY. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE EJECTED AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL APPROACH KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF THE MINOR
TROUGH WILL BACK WINDS IN WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AND WRAP SOME OF
THE COOL AIR WITH THE NORTHERN KANSAS FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKED WINDS AND
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY
BECOME FAIRLY THICK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MINOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY FRIDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES IN WYOMING, AND VERY
WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY WILL THIN DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME MID 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BY SATURDAY, MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
VERY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY
AFTERNOON AS A MINOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE RIPPLES FROM COLORADO TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD AIR
WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS A DENSITY CURRENT AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
WITH WINDS LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND PROPAGATE
EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SURGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIKELY WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK, SUFFICIENT UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL BE GENERATED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOST LIKELY WILL
PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COLD
AND WILL NOT RISE ABOVE THE 30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR LEE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY QUICKLY. THE NEXT
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE 15-16 NOVEMBER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES.
DETAILS OF THIS EVENT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 250 IN THE HYS VICINITY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, AND A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TODAY, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AROUND
15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES THURSDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH CURED FUELS, ACTIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE YET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 ON SATURDAY, BUT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 36 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 78 38 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 75 35 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 42 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...RUTHI
FIRE WEATHER...RUTHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
426 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
...UPDATED LONG TERM AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE BASIC LONGWAVE CONFIGURATION OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST (CONUS) CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE RIDGE
AXIS OUT WEST WAS SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMED OFF
THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS. A NOREASTER
WAS UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PROCESS JUST OFF THE NEW
JERSEY/DELAWARE COAST. CLOSER TO HOME, A BROAD 1020MB HIGH EXTENDED
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MUCH OF TEXAS.
LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS WERE FOUND ALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE WAS UNDERGOING
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MONTANA IN ADVANCE OF A FORMIDABLE PACIFIC JET
CORE WHICH WAS NOSING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES PER RAP ANALYSIS AND
WV LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES. THE REMNANT COOL AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CERTAINLY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON HOW WARM
SOME PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION WILL GET. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OFF THE MODELS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF RANGE FROM
+21C AT ELKHART AT 00Z THIS EVENING TO ONLY +11C ALONG A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. AS LEESIDE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AM ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 64 TO 67F RANGE (HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE), WITH 77-79F COMMON FOR HIGHS FROM SYRACUSE TO
JOHNSON TO ELKHART CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL NUDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 TO THE COLORADO BORDER. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 32 TO 34F RANGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A HIGHWAY 83 LINE. FARTHER EAST (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS), TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S WITH MEAN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT 11 TO 14
KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE GREATEST EXCITEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 140W THAT IS DIGGING TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
ALASKA IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF THE DEEP
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT MAY SURGE
SOUTHWARD AS A DENSITY CURRENT FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER
SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COHERENT TROPICAL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN PROPAGATING TOWARD
THE MARITIME CONTINENT. THE MODELS STILL ARE STRUGGLING WITH
EVOLUTION OF THE CLUSTER, AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF PROPAGATING AT
LEAST A WEAK MJO INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY AROUND 15 NOVEMBER
SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. WITH THE MJO LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PHASE 6 OF
THE WHEELER/HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, A BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHOULD
EVOLVE. THIS WILL FAVOR A MILD REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR INVASION OF COLD CANADIAN AIR. PHASE 6
CORRELATES WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CHANCES IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND 16 NOVEMBER IS VERY REASONABLE.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL REACH SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PLANNED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, REACHING NORTHERN KANSAS BY NOON
THURSDAY. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE EJECTED AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL APPROACH KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF THE MINOR
TROUGH WILL BACK WINDS IN WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AND WRAP SOME OF
THE COOL AIR WITH THE NORTHERN KANSAS FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKED WINDS AND
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY
BECOME FAIRLY THICK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MINOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY FRIDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES IN WYOMING, AND VERY
WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY WILL THIN DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME MID 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BY SATURDAY, MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
VERY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY
AFTERNOON AS A MINOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE RIPPLES FROM COLORADO TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD AIR
WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS A DENSITY CURRENT AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
WITH WINDS LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND PROPAGATE
EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SURGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIKELY WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK, SUFFICIENT UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL BE GENERATED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOST LIKELY WILL
PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COLD
AND WILL NOT RISE ABOVE THE 30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR LEE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY QUICKLY. THE NEXT
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE 15-16 NOVEMBER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES.
DETAILS OF THIS EVENT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2012
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS UP AND DOWN THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES THURSDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH CURED FUELS, ACTIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE YET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 ON SATURDAY, BUT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 36 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 78 38 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 75 35 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 42 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUTHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
836 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARM
UP INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON THE COAST HAS EXPANDED OVER MUCH
OF WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. SO...MADE SOME CLOUD COVER ADJUSTMENTS
TO BETTER FIT SHORT TERM SATELLITE AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE SEEMINGLY SQUASHED BETWEEN HIGH
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS LEAVES US IN A GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...MEANING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE VIRTUALLY NIL.
THE ONLY REAL DOWNSIDE TO THE FORECAST MAY BE HIGH CLOUDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM GETTING READY TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF VIRGINIA. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN RAISED
NOMINALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HOWEVER A GENERAL PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY STILL LOOKS IN STORE FOR MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE RIDGES ON
WEDNESDAY.
WHILE ONLY JUST A VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THIS SUN...THE DAYS ARE GETTING PAINFULLY SHORT. WITH THIS
SHORT WINDOW FOR INSOLATION AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT
LOOK TO TREND DOWN 1 TO 2C BY AFTERNOON FROM THOSE RECORDED
YESTERDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
TODAY. EXPLICIT MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER
40S...WHILE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THAT. GIVEN THE WEAK SUN ANGLE AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ABRUPTLY DOWNWARD AND SIDE MORE
CLOSELY WITH THE EXPLICIT MODEL OUTPUT OVER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN EXTREMELY STRONG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS EXISTS THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THAT INVOLVES VIRTUALLY EVERY SINGLE
PIECE OF AVAILABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE PROJECTING AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO SLOWLY
AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT BUILDS...WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE A
CONTINUAL FACTOR IN THE FORECAST OVER THE AREA...SO MUCH SO THAT
THE MODELS ACTUALLY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION UP TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SO POPS FOR
PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE
SOMETHING THAT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH GOING
FORWARD.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RISE FROM AROUND 0C THIS
EVENING TOWARD +12C BY SATURDAY...WITH AT LEAST MODEST MIXING
BELOW THAT LEVEL COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND. CLEARLY...GIVEN
THE WEAK SUN ANGLE AND SHORT LENGTH OF DAY...MIXING WILL NOT BE
DRY ADIABATIC OR PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP TOWARD THE 50S BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS NOW ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.
FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ABRUPT WARMING DOES NOT STOP ON SATURDAY. AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS SET TO SHIFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START THE
WEEKEND INTO THE HEARTLAND BY SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...LOW
LEVEL MIXING...AND LOW LEVEL POSITIVE THERMAL ADVECTION ALL LOOK
TO KICK INTO OVERDRIVE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS...NOT ONLY DO 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD
TRAJECTORY...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING BELOW THEM LOOKS SET TO BECOME
MORE EFFICIENT BASED UPON A LARGER DEGREE OF MOMENTUM MIXING FROM
850 MB TO THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...LOW LEVEL PROFILES CLOSER TO DRY
ADIABATIC ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND EVEN MONDAY.
FROM A PURELY THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKELY TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY...IF ONLY NOMINALLY WARMER THAN MONDAY...ON THE HEELS
OF WARM ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE +12 TO +14C
RANGE AT 850 MB. HOWEVER...WHILE SOME MODEST COOLING AT 850 MB IS
NOTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO FALL A BIT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TO BECOME VERY
EFFICIENTLY MIXED JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT FALL VERY MUCH AT ALL
RELATIVE TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...THE CONSENSUS BRINGS IN
DECIDEDLY COLDER AIR. THIS MEANS AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND A HARSH RETURN TO REALITY THAT
OLD MAN WINTER HAS YET TO EVEN BARE HIS FROSTY TEETH AT THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5KTS OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SOME BRIEF CEILING
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A NW FLOW THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1008 AM MST WED NOV 7 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOKING ON TRACK...ANY UPDATES WILL
BE MINOR. LATEST MODELS INDICATING WINDS ACROSS PLAINS WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS EVEN WITH MIXING.
.AVIATION... LATEST RUC AND HIRES MODELS INDICATING SOME SORT OF
WEAK MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF DENVER AFTER 23Z...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT THE AREA AIRPORTS. WILL
TREND TAF WINDS IN THAT DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW 8 KTS.
REST OF TAF TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM MST WED NOV 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S ON
THE PLAINS...60S FOOTHILLS...AND MAINLY UPPER 40S THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE READINGS WILL APPROACH BUT MOST
LIKELY NOT SURPASS RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...RECORD FOR DENVER IS
78 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1999. WHILE UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IS RATHER
DRY...THE LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE WRF SYNTHETIC IMAGERY
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. DONT SEE THIS BEING SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO OFFER MUCH IF ANY COOLING.
WESTERLY COMPONENT INCREASES A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
SO BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
LATER TODAY. EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL KEEP WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LIGHT AND
POSSIBLY OUT OF THE NORTH...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...IN SPITE OF THE RECENT LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
OVER THE WEEKEND...EACH OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON MOVING
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL BE DRIVEN BY
A NICE POOL OF COLD AIR AT 500 MB...AND Q-G DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ALONG WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENISIS. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR BEHIND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A COLD DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON THE PLAINS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 30S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS LINGERS AND THE PLAINS ZONES
DRY OUT.
AVIATION...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY 17Z-19Z...THEN
TURNING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY 00Z-03Z AT KDEN AND KAPA. KBJC
SHOULD TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
AFTER 03Z. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
216 PM EST Wed Nov 7 2012
...First frost possible Friday morning...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The upper level longwave pattern remains similar to that of
yesterday based on the 18z CONUS NAM/regional RAP analysis. Broad
deep-layer ridging covers the western half of the country, while
several embedded impulses have expanded the spatial scale of the
eastern U.S. trough. At the surface, the main feature is the
Nor`easter centered due east of Maryland in the western Atlantic.
Further upstream, a series of low pressure troughs generated by
their upper level counterparts have created areas of showers across
northern and central Georgia and Alabama. Expect these showers to
continue as the surface features move south. Showers that do enter
our forecast area should be rather light, most likely to impact SE
AL and S Georgia this afternoon, weakening and spreading offshore
overnight where they may pick up a bit more steam over the more
unstable Gulf waters. The greatest impact thus far today has been
the lingering cloud cover, holding temperatures in the upper 50s to
low 60s most of the day across south central Georgia. Elsewhere,
temperatures have managed to climb into the lower to middle 60s
under partly cloudy skies.
In addition to the passing light showers and cloud cover overnight,
winds are expected to not go completely calm, but lighter winds will
combine with clearing skies to yield another chilly night. Expect
temperatures area wide to fall into the upper 30s, with middle 40s
more likely nearer to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Saturday]...
The last in a recent series of potent 500 mb short waves will be
exiting to our east Thursday morning, followed by rapidly-building
deep layer ridging Friday and Saturday. After one more relatively
cool day (with highs Thursday in the mid to upper 60s and lows
Friday in the mid to upper 30s), a warming trend will commence
(especially during the afternoons, as lows can still get rather cool
with the increasingly longer nights, light winds, and a dry
airmass). Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s, with lows
on Saturday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Friday morning appears to
be our best chance (with the current "cold spell") at this
season`s first frost. This will only be the case in the normally
coldest inland locations- the open fields away from the cities.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The deep layer ridge over the Southeast on Sunday will break down as
a weakening cold front moves southeast across the forecast area
Monday night and Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF both show this system
getting "stretched" out in the deep layer moisture/QPF fields, as
the associated 500 mb height falls remain north of our region. With
this weakening, the max PoP for is only 30%. The front is likely to
stall across central FL Wednesday as a frontal wave begins to
develop in the western Gulf of Mexico, so this may not be a "clean"
frontal passage. The above-average temperatures (especially daytime
highs- which will be well into the 70s) ahead of the cold front
Sunday and Monday will give wave to near average temperatures behind
the front Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 19Z Wednesday]...
Cloud cover remains, however, all sites reside under VFR conditions
at this time. Expect low/mid level clouds to spread south and affect
all terminals through the rest of the afternoon and evening, but
remain VFR through the TAF. Tomorrow, clear skies, calm winds, and
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be at exercise caution levels tonight, then drop
below these levels quickly Thursday morning. They will remain at
relatively low levels until Saturday afternoon or evening, when a period
of exercise caution to possible even advisory levels begins,
lasting through Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no fire weather concerns on Thursday as relative humidity
values will likely remain above critical levels. On Friday however,
humidity values will fall to below 25 percent area wide. Any
watch/warning decisions will be based upon future ERC forecast for
Florida. Winds will not support advisories for Georgia, and RH
duration requirements will not be met in Alabama. The dry conditions
will continue through Saturday before creeping up above critical
levels by Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The recent rain (Monday night-early Tuesday) had little impact on
local river stages, as they remained well below flood stage. The
upcoming rain event (Monday night and Tuesday) is expected to be
too light and/or localized to have any significant impact on the
river stages.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 37 68 34 73 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 45 67 45 72 49 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dothan 38 66 37 72 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 38 67 36 73 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 38 66 37 71 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 38 69 35 73 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 43 65 45 70 49 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...Harrigan
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...Fournier
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
155 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1115 AM CST
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AS
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS...DON`T SEE MUCH PROSPECT OF ANY
CLEARING. SOME DRIER AIR NOTED OVER MI AND IN BUT ADVECTION IS VERY
WEAK. SOME PARTIAL SUN OVER NORTHWEST IN AND FAR EASTERN IL
POSSIBLE. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TONIGHT AND ANYPLACE THAT CLEARS
WILL LIKELY FOG IN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WON`T MOVE MUCH THE REST OF TODAY.
ALLSOPP/CASTRO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN AND ALSO CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER REMAINING POTENTIALLY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT DEGREE OF WARM-UP WILL BE
REALIZED AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...PROVIDING THE
FINAL CHALLENGE OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTINCT POTENT SHORT WAVES HAS EVOLVED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
MORNING. FINAL SHORT WAVE IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG 120+ KNOT NORTH-TO-SOUTH JET
IS LINED UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL HELP TO
PROGRESS THIS SOUTH. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS STRONG JET THROUGH TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHEAR
VORTICITY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH FOR SUPPRESSION TO HELP SCOUR
CLOUDS. AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ON THE EARLY MORNING
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL. LAST NIGHTS RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP...GENERALLY AROUND 15KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE BAGGY LOW-
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED FROM WI THROUGH THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING...THE WIND FLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND CERTAINLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. MOST MODELS SEEM
TOO QUICK TO BREAK UP A LOT OF THE CLOUDS IN THEIR HUMIDITY
SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY DO AGREE ON A LIGHT WIND FIELD BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DISSIPATION OF SUCH A DEEP CLOUD
LAYER. SO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM SCOURING AND HAVE INCREASED THE
DURATION OF THE CLOUDS BY QUITE A WHILE...EXTENDING THEM INTO
TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN ALOFT
TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AND INCREASE THEREAFTER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND ADVECT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K LAYER IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL EXACTLY WHERE RADAR DEPICTS DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORT
FADES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING...AND NOT REALLY UNTIL LATE
MORNING AT THAT. MULTIPLE SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND ON REFLECTIVITY. SO HAVE SOME MENTION FOR DRIZZLE WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH. THE CLOUDS WITH
THE LOW ANGLE SUN AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL
SPREAD FAR LOWER THAN THE NORMAL 16-18 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MORNING ALONE PLACES MAY ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST.
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIG CHALLENGE AND DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER COULD VARY UP TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. HAVE TRENDED
WARMER FOR AREAS WHERE WE THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SEEM THE MOST PROBABLE TO
POTENTIALLY CLEAR. WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THEN A COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY...SUCH CLEARING WOULD VERY LIKELY FAVOR FOG AND
EVEN DENSE FOG AT THAT. HAVE ADDED THE DENSE POSSIBILITY ONTO THE
GOING FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO FURTHER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EACH DAY
PROGRESSIVELY WARMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY. THE LEAD PUSH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MORE STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THICKNESS
DIFLUENCE AND SURPRISINGLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE REASONABLE
WITH THIS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER...BUT FORECAST DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE GOING PLACEMENT OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEMS VERY GOOD TO CAPTURE THESE
POSSIBILITIES...AND HAVE IN GENERAL MADE FEW CHANGES THERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT SEEMINGLY IF CLOUDS EARLY HOLD THINGS BACK. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD. THE 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY A
07.00Z EC/GFS BLEND ARE +14C. GIVEN JUST 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOCAL RESEARCH CLIMATOLOGY FOR CHICAGO
SUPPORTS A MEDIAN HIGH OF 67 WITH 70 BEING THE UPPER 25TH
PERCENTILE. SO THE 70 DEGREE MARK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY IF WE START THE DAY SUNNY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING BUT WILL HAVE AN EVEN WARM STARTING POINT...LIKELY
AROUND 50 DEGREES. SO A FORECAST OF AT LEAST LOWER TO MID 60S
AREA WIDE ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS HAS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS MANY DAYS OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THAT FRONTAL TIMING BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
EARLIER ACTIVITY AS MENTIONED ABOVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE RAIN LIKELIHOOD ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW IN THE FORECAST. SOME
THUNDER CERTAINLY REMAINS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC
PROJECTION. COLDER AND THEN DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN ON
MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE IF THAT COLDER AIR
WILL CATCH UP TO THE FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES CALL FOR FALLING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* MVFR VSBYS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS AND OR VSBYS LATE NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NORTHWEST IL LATE LAST NIGHT HAS
QUICKLY MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO WESTERN TN AT MIDDAY TAKING
THE ASSOCIATED MID AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITH IT...AS
WELL AS THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN TN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IN AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN IL...AND NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN WI. THE WEAK WEAK
PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION HAS AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST. LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME EVEN LIGHTER
OR NIL TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN...
NORTHWESTERN IA...SOUTHEASTERN NE AND ON TO EAST TX MOVES E
ACROSS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY...AND LOWER
MS VALLEY BY 08.12Z. AFTER SUNRISE THU SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER LOWER MI AND NORTHEASTERN IN HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THOUGH ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GIVEN THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. NONE THEN LESS...CLEARING
OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IN WITH FURTHER CLEARING
SLOWLY WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CLEARING ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD.
WITH MOIST GROUND FOR EARLIER RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND LITTLE TO NO
SUNSHINE TO DRY THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS CLEAR/CLEARING SKY...LIGHT TO NIL WINDS AND
MOIST SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW SURFACE
BASED INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT. A COUPLE COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
DETERMINING OF DENSE FOG WILL FORM IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF...AND HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
IF SOME FLOW AND THUS MIXING OCCURS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT THEN A LOW STRATUS DECK WOULD BE FAVORED OVER
AREAS/WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...WHILE ARRIVAL OF CIRRUS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE NIGHT WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF
THE SURFACE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AND DISCOURAGE DENSE FOG. MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOTH A WEAK RETURN
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF NO DENSE FOG
OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING VFR REST OF AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 6 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SKY CONDITION/CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR LATE NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
HAS GENERATED 10 TO 20 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OF BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST
TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAKE AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT LEAST 30KT FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES SOME WHILE
TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTH
GALES DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
JAMES BAY WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE...BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A RAPID
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1246 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1115 AM CST
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AS
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS...DON`T SEE MUCH PROSPECT OF ANY
CLEARING. SOME DRIER AIR NOTED OVER MI AND IN BUT ADVECTION IS VERY
WEAK. SOME PARTIAL SUN OVER NORTHWEST IN AND FAR EASTERN IL
POSSIBLE. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TONIGHT AND ANYPLACE THAT CLEARS
WILL LIKELY FOG IN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WON`T MOVE MUCH THE REST OF TODAY.
ALLSOPP/CASTRO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN AND ALSO CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER REMAINING POTENTIALLY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT DEGREE OF WARM-UP WILL BE
REALIZED AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...PROVIDING THE
FINAL CHALLENGE OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTINCT POTENT SHORT WAVES HAS EVOLVED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
MORNING. FINAL SHORT WAVE IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG 120+ KNOT NORTH-TO-SOUTH JET
IS LINED UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL HELP TO
PROGRESS THIS SOUTH. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS STRONG JET THROUGH TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHEAR
VORTICITY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH FOR SUPPRESSION TO HELP SCOUR
CLOUDS. AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ON THE EARLY MORNING
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL. LAST NIGHTS RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP...GENERALLY AROUND 15KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE BAGGY LOW-
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED FROM WI THROUGH THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING...THE WIND FLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND CERTAINLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. MOST MODELS SEEM
TOO QUICK TO BREAK UP A LOT OF THE CLOUDS IN THEIR HUMIDITY
SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY DO AGREE ON A LIGHT WIND FIELD BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DISSIPATION OF SUCH A DEEP CLOUD
LAYER. SO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM SCOURING AND HAVE INCREASED THE
DURATION OF THE CLOUDS BY QUITE A WHILE...EXTENDING THEM INTO
TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN ALOFT
TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AND INCREASE THEREAFTER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND ADVECT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K LAYER IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL EXACTLY WHERE RADAR DEPICTS DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORT
FADES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING...AND NOT REALLY UNTIL LATE
MORNING AT THAT. MULTIPLE SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND ON REFLECTIVITY. SO HAVE SOME MENTION FOR DRIZZLE WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH. THE CLOUDS WITH
THE LOW ANGLE SUN AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL
SPREAD FAR LOWER THAN THE NORMAL 16-18 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MORNING ALONE PLACES MAY ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST.
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIG CHALLENGE AND DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER COULD VARY UP TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. HAVE TRENDED
WARMER FOR AREAS WHERE WE THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SEEM THE MOST PROBABLE TO
POTENTIALLY CLEAR. WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THEN A COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY...SUCH CLEARING WOULD VERY LIKELY FAVOR FOG AND
EVEN DENSE FOG AT THAT. HAVE ADDED THE DENSE POSSIBILITY ONTO THE
GOING FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO FURTHER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EACH DAY
PROGRESSIVELY WARMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY. THE LEAD PUSH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MORE STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THICKNESS
DIFLUENCE AND SURPRISINGLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE REASONABLE
WITH THIS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER...BUT FORECAST DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE GOING PLACEMENT OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEMS VERY GOOD TO CAPTURE THESE
POSSIBILITIES...AND HAVE IN GENERAL MADE FEW CHANGES THERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT SEEMINGLY IF CLOUDS EARLY HOLD THINGS BACK. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD. THE 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY A
07.00Z EC/GFS BLEND ARE +14C. GIVEN JUST 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOCAL RESEARCH CLIMATOLOGY FOR CHICAGO
SUPPORTS A MEDIAN HIGH OF 67 WITH 70 BEING THE UPPER 25TH
PERCENTILE. SO THE 70 DEGREE MARK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY IF WE START THE DAY SUNNY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING BUT WILL HAVE AN EVEN WARM STARTING POINT...LIKELY
AROUND 50 DEGREES. SO A FORECAST OF AT LEAST LOWER TO MID 60S
AREA WIDE ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS HAS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS MANY DAYS OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THAT FRONTAL TIMING BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
EARLIER ACTIVITY AS MENTIONED ABOVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE RAIN LIKELIHOOD ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW IN THE FORECAST. SOME
THUNDER CERTAINLY REMAINS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC
PROJECTION. COLDER AND THEN DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN ON
MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE IF THAT COLDER AIR
WILL CATCH UP TO THE FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES CALL FOR FALLING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* AREAS MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MVFR VSBYS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS AND OR VSBYS LATE NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NORTHWEST IL LATE LAST NIGHT HAS
QUICKLY MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO WESTERN TN AT MIDDAY TAKING
THE ASSOCIATED MID AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITH IT...AS
WELL AS THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN TN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IN AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN IL...AND NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN WI. THE WEAK WEAK
PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION HAS AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST. LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME EVEN LIGHTER
OR NIL TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN...
NORTHWESTERN IA...SOUTHEASTERN NE AND ON TO EAST TX MOVES E
ACROSS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY...AND LOWER
MS VALLEY BY 08.12Z. AFTER SUNRISE THU SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER LOWER MI AND NORTHEASTERN IN HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THOUGH ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GIVEN THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. NONE THEN LESS...CLEARING
OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IN WITH FURTHER CLEARING
SLOWLY WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CLEARING ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD.
WITH MOIST GROUND FOR EARLIER RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND LITTLE TO NO
SUNSHINE TO DRY THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS CLEAR/CLEARING SKY...LIGHT TO NIL WINDS AND
MOIST SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW SURFACE
BASED INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT. A COUPLE COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
DETERMINING OF DENSE FOG WILL FORM IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF...AND HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
IF SOME FLOW AND THUS MIXING OCCURS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT THEN A LOW STRATUS DECK WOULD BE FAVORED OVER
AREAS/WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...WHILE ARRIVAL OF CIRRUS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE NIGHT WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF
THE SURFACE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION
AND DISCOURAGE DENSE FOG. MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOTH A WEAK RETURN
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF NO DENSE FOG
OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 6 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SKY CONDITION/CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR LATE NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
HAS GENERATED 10 TO 20 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OF BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST
TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAKE AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT LEAST 30KT FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES SOME WHILE
TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTH
GALES DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
JAMES BAY WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE...BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A RAPID
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1013 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.DISCUSSION UPDATE...
1115 AM CST
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AS
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS...DON`T SEE MUCH PROSPECT OF ANY
CLEARING. SOME DRIER AIR NOTED OVER MI AND IN BUT ADVECTION IS VERY
WEAK. SOME PARTIAL SUN OVER NORTHWEST IN AND FAR EASTERN IL
POSSIBLE. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TONIGHT AND ANYPLACE THAT CLEARS
WILL LIKELY FOG IN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WON`T MOVE MUCH THE REST OF TODAY.
ALLSOPP/CASTRO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN AND ALSO CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER REMAINING POTENTIALLY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT DEGREE OF WARM-UP WILL BE
REALIZED AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...PROVIDING THE
FINAL CHALLENGE OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH DISTINCT POTENT SHORT WAVES HAS EVOLVED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
MORNING. FINAL SHORT WAVE IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG 120+ KNOT NORTH-TO-SOUTH JET
IS LINED UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL HELP TO
PROGRESS THIS SOUTH. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS STRONG JET THROUGH TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHEAR
VORTICITY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH FOR SUPPRESSION TO HELP SCOUR
CLOUDS. AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ON THE EARLY MORNING
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL. LAST NIGHTS RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP...GENERALLY AROUND 15KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE BAGGY LOW-
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED FROM WI THROUGH THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING...THE WIND FLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND CERTAINLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. MOST MODELS SEEM
TOO QUICK TO BREAK UP A LOT OF THE CLOUDS IN THEIR HUMIDITY
SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY DO AGREE ON A LIGHT WIND FIELD BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DISSIPATION OF SUCH A DEEP CLOUD
LAYER. SO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM SCOURING AND HAVE INCREASED THE
DURATION OF THE CLOUDS BY QUITE A WHILE...EXTENDING THEM INTO
TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN ALOFT
TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AND INCREASE THEREAFTER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND ADVECT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K LAYER IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL EXACTLY WHERE RADAR DEPICTS DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORT
FADES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING...AND NOT REALLY UNTIL LATE
MORNING AT THAT. MULTIPLE SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND ON REFLECTIVITY. SO HAVE SOME MENTION FOR DRIZZLE WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH. THE CLOUDS WITH
THE LOW ANGLE SUN AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL
SPREAD FAR LOWER THAN THE NORMAL 16-18 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MORNING ALONE PLACES MAY ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST.
THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIG CHALLENGE AND DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER COULD VARY UP TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. HAVE TRENDED
WARMER FOR AREAS WHERE WE THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SEEM THE MOST PROBABLE TO
POTENTIALLY CLEAR. WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THEN A COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY...SUCH CLEARING WOULD VERY LIKELY FAVOR FOG AND
EVEN DENSE FOG AT THAT. HAVE ADDED THE DENSE POSSIBILITY ONTO THE
GOING FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO FURTHER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EACH DAY
PROGRESSIVELY WARMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY. THE LEAD PUSH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MORE STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THICKNESS
DIFLUENCE AND SURPRISINGLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE REASONABLE
WITH THIS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER...BUT FORECAST DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE GOING PLACEMENT OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SEEMS VERY GOOD TO CAPTURE THESE
POSSIBILITIES...AND HAVE IN GENERAL MADE FEW CHANGES THERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT SEEMINGLY IF CLOUDS EARLY HOLD THINGS BACK. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD. THE 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY A
07.00Z EC/GFS BLEND ARE +14C. GIVEN JUST 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOCAL RESEARCH CLIMATOLOGY FOR CHICAGO
SUPPORTS A MEDIAN HIGH OF 67 WITH 70 BEING THE UPPER 25TH
PERCENTILE. SO THE 70 DEGREE MARK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY IF WE START THE DAY SUNNY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING BUT WILL HAVE AN EVEN WARM STARTING POINT...LIKELY
AROUND 50 DEGREES. SO A FORECAST OF AT LEAST LOWER TO MID 60S
AREA WIDE ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS HAS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS MANY DAYS OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THAT FRONTAL TIMING BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
EARLIER ACTIVITY AS MENTIONED ABOVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE RAIN LIKELIHOOD ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW IN THE FORECAST. SOME
THUNDER CERTAINLY REMAINS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC
PROJECTION. COLDER AND THEN DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN ON
MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE IF THAT COLDER AIR
WILL CATCH UP TO THE FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES CALL FOR FALLING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR VSBY PREVAILING REST OF MORNING.
* PREVAILING MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR VIS WITH BR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR IN FG OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
MOST OF WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE PAST 2 HRS. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL WITH ISENTROPIC SFCS INDICATING TOTAL LOSS OF
MID LVL UPGLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA 12-15Z...WITH IR SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWING LOSS OF MID LVL CLOUDS AND WITH LLVL UPGLIDE BECOMING
MINIMAL AT BEST BY 16Z PER LATEST RUC MODEL RUN. DO NOT WANT TO
RUSH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS WE TEND TO DO SOMETIMES BUT APPEARS
THAT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTING IN AS INVERTED SFC
TROF DRIFTS A BIT FURTHER TO THE W THAT SHUD STA PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS ACROSS CHI AREA THRU AFTERNOON.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEAK...DIFFUSE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH
ILLINOIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LIGHT PCPN
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OVER NWRN IN/NERN IL...SO THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME -DZ/-RA AT THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS MORNING. LATEST CIG TRENDS SHOW CIGS LIFTING TO
MVFR...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST OCNL IFR THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE SFC LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND SOME DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BE
EARLY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO ERODE...BUT WITH SFC
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR VIS TO DROP TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. EXACTLY HOW LOW VIS WILL DROP TONIGHT IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
PRESENT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH CHC TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHC RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
HAS GENERATED 10 TO 20 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OF BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST
TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAKE AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT LEAST 30KT FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES SOME WHILE
TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTH
GALES DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
JAMES BAY WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE...BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A RAPID
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO SLIDE
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS RIFE WITH PRESSURE FALLS AND LLVL RETURN FLOW...
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW PREVIOUSLY
PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES GETTING PRESSED EASTWARD
ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SURGE OF PACIFIC NW UPPER JET ENERGY.
OTHER UPPER JET MAX OVER THE ARE THIS MORNING STARTING TO DEPART OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO EAST COAST L/W TROF BASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
ONGOING CLOUD DECK ALIGNED ACRS MUCH OF THE UPPER TO MID MS RVR
VALLEY REGIONS. DEPARTING UPPER JET TO THE SE AND ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM
RIDGE GETTING PRESSED ACRS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ONGOING
SUBSIDENCE REGIME WHICH NORMALLY WOULD MEAN A CLOUD DECAY/CLEAR OUT.
BUT FCST SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TRAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT TO GET ENHANCED BY THE SAME PROCESSES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD TRAP THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT CLEAR OUT
TRENDS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. LATEST RAP RUNS IN HANDLING MOISTURE
IN THE H95-H85 MB LAYER ALSO POINT TO THE LOW CLOUDS GETTING TRAPPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE SOME
CLEARING PUSH INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. WEST OF THE
MS RVR...EXPECT PREVIOUS CLEARING HOLES THAT DIURNALLY FILLED WITH
CUMULUS TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN AFTER SUNSET...MAKING FOR A PATCHY
CLEARING PATTERN ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. WILL PLAY THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THE FCST
AND HANG THEM ON ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING TRENDS TOWARD SUNRISE THU MORNING.
RIDGE-RIDING CI WILL ALSO SPILL DOWN ACRS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH DELAYED CLEARING TRENDS IN MIND...ONGOING LOWS
GENERALLY STILL LOOK ON TARGET EXCEPT MAYBE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT UPWARD
ACRS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBLE CLEARING
HOLES UNDER RIDGE AXIS...WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG MENTION INTRODUCED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFT ACRS GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA.
WITH LACK OF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND THUS LIMITED DRYING...PATCHY FOG WORDING MAYBE WARRANTED FURTHER
TO THE WEST.
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE RETURN FLOW GRADIENT AND SUNSHINE GOING ON
NOW ACRS THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACRS THE LOCAL
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
TRANSLATE LOCALLY TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON ACRS EASTERN NEB AND
FAR WESTERN IA...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CHANCE AT A 60
DEGREE READING BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. ..12..
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
NEAR RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SIGNIFICANT RAINS WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES.
OVERVIEW...LIMITED UPSTREAM SENSIBLE WEATHER INITIALIZATION ISSUES
WITH D_PROG_DT AND MOISTURE BIASES SUPPORTING WITH COLD FRONT USING
GFS AS THE PRIMARY TOOL. THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SEASONABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS OF .5+ OF AN INCH...UP TO LOCALLY 2.0 INCHES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY BY FRIDAY PM. NEARLY STEADY TO
POSSIBLY SLOWLY RISING MINS IN THE 30S THURSDAY AM. THEN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S NE TO LOWER 60S SW WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER VALUES IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND BL MIXING OCCURS. FRIDAY NIGHT...VERY MILD WITH
MINS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF RECORD WARM MINS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S NE
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SW SECTIONS. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
ARRIVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG WAA TO KEEP REGION WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF RECORDS. KEPT VERY LOW
POPS WITH LIGHT -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PW/S AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL JET. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR HIGHS AND MINS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS WITH TEMPERATURES
CRASHING 25-30+ PLUS DEGREES WITHIN 6 HOURS OF THE FRONT PASSING.
SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/RAINSHOWERS AND
SOME EMBEDDED BRIEF THUNDER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
A LARGE GRADIENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. GONE WITH NEAR 50F FAR NW TO
THE MIDDLE 60S FAR SW SECTIONS. LIKELY THIS GRADIENT WILL BE GREATER
ONCE TIMING ISSUE BETTER RESOLVED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PW
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF FRONT PER LOCAL TECHNIQUES CONFIRM
AT LEAST .5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 1.5+ INCHES WITH TRAINING AND
EVEN HIGHER POSSIBLE WITH ANY WAVE ON THE FRONT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COLD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
MINS IN THE 20S...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS IN FAVORED LOW LYING
LOCATIONS.
NICHOLS
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD ACRS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY MVFR CIGS OF
BKN-OVC COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY AT THE CID SITE. THE THREAT FOR
SOME CLOUDS TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE NIGHT TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR.
NORTHERLY WINDS 6-12 KTS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. PATCHY FOG
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 3-6SM
IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10+ KTS BY MID
THU MORNING WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
12/NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DES MOINES IA
1134 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
AND CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY TRACKING DOWN MID MS RIVER SHOWS
UP NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEEPER FORCING AND CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF IA INTO IL. HOWEVER
STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA WITH MOISTURE 1.5KM
AND BELOW PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER RAP 280K
ISENT LAYER SUGGESTS UVM AND MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY
THAT THIS SHOULD END BY 12Z.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DECREASE AND THIN THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CLOUDS BECOMING CELLULAR IN SHALLOW MIXING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES WITH SOUNDINGS ONLY
SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE SATURDAY...THEN WITH TIMING OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. GOOD WAA AND ENOUGH MIXING WILL PUT TEMPS
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO +10-12C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MIXING LOOKS TO BE ONLY
UP TO 900MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 295K TO
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES...CLOUD COVER MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE MAX
TEMPS. THINKING WITH THE WARM START FRIDAY MORNING...COMBINED WITH
THE SURGE OF SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER PRESENT. KEPT ONGOING
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE NORTH AND EAST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO WARRANT THE MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN IOWA. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH
SATURATION BELOW 800MB AT MCW/ALO/DSM. SO KEPT WITH SLIGHT POPS
B/T 00-12Z SATURDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICTING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HAVE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH WARM
FRONT SURGING INTO MN/WI AREA. DECREASED POPS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND NO TRIGGER UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY STRONG MIXING AND WAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF SOME
ON THE VERY GUSTY WINDS...BUT STILL EXPECTING A WINDY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY.
FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z SUNDAY...AND CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WITH
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLUMN LOSES ICE INTRODUCTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE DRIZZLE/FZDZ INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE STRONG CAA INTO THE STATE. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTION ATTM.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...CAA CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND LIKELY WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDING NOT DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL...BUT GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL RH GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. REGARDLESS...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING IN
NORTHERN IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...07/18Z
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES SLOWLY
RISING...AND HAVE CONFINED TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
OF THE TAFS. BY EVENING THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1146 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE BASIC LONGWAVE CONFIGURATION OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST (CONUS) CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE RIDGE
AXIS OUT WEST WAS SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMED OFF
THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS. A NOREASTER
WAS UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PROCESS JUST OFF THE NEW
JERSEY/DELAWARE COAST. CLOSER TO HOME, A BROAD 1020MB HIGH EXTENDED
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO MUCH OF TEXAS.
LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS WERE FOUND ALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE WAS UNDERGOING
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MONTANA IN ADVANCE OF A FORMIDABLE PACIFIC JET
CORE WHICH WAS NOSING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES PER RAP ANALYSIS AND
WV LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES. THE REMNANT COOL AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CERTAINLY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON HOW WARM
SOME PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION WILL GET. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OFF THE MODELS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF RANGE FROM
+21C AT ELKHART AT 00Z THIS EVENING TO ONLY +11C ALONG A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. AS LEESIDE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AM ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 64 TO 67F RANGE (HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE), WITH 77-79F COMMON FOR HIGHS FROM SYRACUSE TO
JOHNSON TO ELKHART CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL NUDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 TO THE COLORADO BORDER. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 32 TO 34F RANGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A HIGHWAY 83 LINE. FARTHER EAST (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS), TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S WITH MEAN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT 11 TO 14
KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
THE GREATEST EXCITEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 140W THAT IS DIGGING TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
ALASKA IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF THE DEEP
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT MAY SURGE
SOUTHWARD AS A DENSITY CURRENT FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER
SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COHERENT TROPICAL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN PROPAGATING TOWARD
THE MARITIME CONTINENT. THE MODELS STILL ARE STRUGGLING WITH
EVOLUTION OF THE CLUSTER, AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF PROPAGATING AT
LEAST A WEAK MJO INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY AROUND 15 NOVEMBER
SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. WITH THE MJO LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PHASE 6 OF
THE WHEELER/HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, A BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHOULD
EVOLVE. THIS WILL FAVOR A MILD REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR INVASION OF COLD CANADIAN AIR. PHASE 6
CORRELATES WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CHANCES IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND 16 NOVEMBER IS VERY REASONABLE.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL REACH SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PLANNED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, REACHING NORTHERN KANSAS BY NOON
THURSDAY. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE EJECTED AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL APPROACH KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF THE MINOR
TROUGH WILL BACK WINDS IN WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AND WRAP SOME OF
THE COOL AIR WITH THE NORTHERN KANSAS FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKED WINDS AND
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY
BECOME FAIRLY THICK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MINOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY FRIDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES IN WYOMING, AND VERY
WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY WILL THIN DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME MID 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BY SATURDAY, MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
VERY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY
AFTERNOON AS A MINOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE RIPPLES FROM COLORADO TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD AIR
WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS A DENSITY CURRENT AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
WITH WINDS LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND PROPAGATE
EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SURGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIKELY WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK, SUFFICIENT UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL BE GENERATED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOST LIKELY WILL
PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COLD
AND WILL NOT RISE ABOVE THE 30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR LEE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY QUICKLY. THE NEXT
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE 15-16 NOVEMBER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES.
DETAILS OF THIS EVENT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 40 TO 50KT FROM 06-12Z TONIGHT SO SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10-15KT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A WARM FRONT
AFTER 10-12Z. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES THURSDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH CURED FUELS, ACTIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE YET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 ON SATURDAY, BUT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 41 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 37 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 78 42 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 75 38 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 35 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 39 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...RUTHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
256 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE DELAWARE COAST...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LO PRES WELL E OF THE DE CST...WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNE THIS
AFTN THRU TNGT. ADJUSTED POPS AND WORDING OVR THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENG...BASED ON LATEST SAT PIX AND RUC PARAMETERS. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVR THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
VA NRN NECK...DUE TO BEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOIST
(PCPN) TO MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA. JUST HAVE ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN
MENTIONED ACRS JUST ABT THE REMAINDER OF VA AND NC. CONTINUED
WITH CHC OF LGT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH RAIN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND N OF I-64...ESPLY OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHR...WHERE LO-
LVL THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND
H85 TEMPS STAY BLO 0C. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO MILD/WET GROUND. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER FAR ERN AREAS. HI
TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S N TO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S
S. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE MID TO UPR 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ASIDE FROM LINGERING -RA/-SN OVER EASTERN AREAS IN THE MRNG...DRY
WX EXPECTED ON THU. TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LO PRES WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BLO NORMAL WITH NW FLOW AND UPR-LVL TROF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S OVER THE LWR MD EASTERN
SHORE TO THE MID 50S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA. SFC HI PRES
BLDS OVER THE AREA THU NGT INTO FRI AS TEMPS WARM SLGTLY...HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS A WEAKENING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INCLUDED A 30 POP FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 THIS WEEKEND
AND WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING WARM TO THE 40S MONDAY
MORNING AND THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE EASTERN
PORTIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT SBY...IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH LOOK TO SPREAD TO THE TERMINAL AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN ALONG WITH A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN.
SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WITH PCPN MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...KEPT VSBYS VFR OR MVFR. RICHMOND WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT SBY AND ORF AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS AT PHF AND ECG DIMINISH TNGT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FROM THE
NW AS THE STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE MOVES TO THE N AND E.
ONCE VFR TAKES OVER THURSDAY...IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LO PRES (WELL) E OF THE VA CAPES CONTS TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
THROUGH TDA AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE. WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCRSD...AND
WILL HAVE STRONG SCAS ON THE RIVERS/BAY/SND INTO THU...W/ GALES ON
THE OCN (HIGHEST SPEEDS NRN WTRS TO PSBLY 45 KT). THERE IS SOME
CONCERN ABT LO END GALES ON PORTIONS OF THE BAY...MNLY N OF NEW
POINT COMFORT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE...ADDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
DORCHESTER...WICOMICO...AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN MARYLAND FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. AS WINDS BACK TO
THE NW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
HELP TO PUSH WATER ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
FORECAST ANOMALIES AT CAMBRIDGE ARE ONLY SHOWING TO BE AROUND
0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...AND ABOUT 1.0 FT DURING THE SECOND HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENCE OF NW WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADDITION TO ALL LEVELS INCREASING (FORECAST/TIDE/SURGE)
DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING...
WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF
CHES BAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY NUISANCE TYPE COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTG TO INCRS THROUGH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE RMNS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE ANOMALIES LOWER ON THU. NNW WNDS TO
RMN STRONG/GUSTY INTO THU. HIGHEST THREAT FOR (ANY) COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE THE LWR CHES BAY (SEWELLS POINT/CBBT)...ALG THE
ERN SIDE OF THE CHES BAY...AND FOR LOCATIONS LIKE OCEAN
CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE/WALLOPSISLAND - FROM THE BAYS INSTEAD OF THE
OCN. LATEST GUID INDICATING MODERATE FLOODING THIS
AFTN...APPROACHING SEVERE INVOF OCEAN CITY (BY TNGTS HI
TIDE)...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ELSW. KEEPING COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CSTL LWR MD...AND HAVE ADDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE VA
ERN SHR...AND ALG THE LWR BAY (NORFOLK/VA BCH) (FOR THAT MINOR
FLOODING CONCERN). LASTLY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS OF THE LWR
MD ERN SHR ALG THE CHES BAY FROM DORCHESTER TO SOMERSET COUNTIES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ095-
098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/BMD/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1242 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE DELAWARE COAST...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LO PRES WELL E OF THE DE CST...WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNE THIS
AFTN THRU TNGT. ADJUSTED POPS AND WORDING OVR THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENG...BASED ON LATEST SAT PIX AND RUC PARAMETERS. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVR THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
VA NRN NECK...DUE TO BEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOIST
(PCPN) TO MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA. JUST HAVE ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN
MENTIONED ACRS JUST ABT THE REMAINDER OF VA AND NC. CONTINUED
WITH CHC OF LGT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH RAIN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND N OF I-64...ESPLY OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHR...WHERE LO-
LVL THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND
H85 TEMPS STAY BLO 0C. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO MILD/WET GROUND. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER FAR ERN AREAS. HI
TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S N TO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S
S. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE MID TO UPR 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ASIDE FROM LINGERING -RA/-SN OVER EASTERN AREAS IN THE MRNG...DRY
WX EXPECTED ON THU. TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LO PRES WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BLO NORMAL WITH NW FLOW AND UPR-LVL TROF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S OVER THE LWR MD EASTERN
SHORE TO THE MID 50S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA. SFC HI PRES
BLDS OVER THE AREA THU NGT INTO FRI AS TEMPS WARM SLGTLY...HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS A WEAKENING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INCLUDED A 30 POP FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 THIS WEEKEND
AND WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING WARM TO THE 40S MONDAY
MORNING AND THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CSTL STORM CONTG TO INTENSIFY OFFSHR AS IT TRACKS NNE THROUGH TDA.
MVFR CONDS GENLY CONFINED TO ERN PORTION OF FA RIGHT NOW. MDL GUID
CONTS TO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KECG AND KSBY. IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED INTERMITTENTLY DURING HEAVIER PCPN. NNW WINDS
GUSTY...STRONGEST NR THE CST. GUSTY N/NW WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY AT SBY AS PCPN AND LWR CIGS SLOLY PULL OUT. VFR SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LO PRES (WELL) E OF THE VA CAPES CONTS TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
THROUGH TDA AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE. WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCRSD...AND
WILL HAVE STRONG SCAS ON THE RIVERS/BAY/SND INTO THU...W/ GALES ON
THE OCN (HIGHEST SPEEDS NRN WTRS TO PSBLY 45 KT). THERE IS SOME
CONCERN ABT LO END GALES ON PORTIONS OF THE BAY...MNLY N OF NEW
POINT COMFORT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE...ADDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
DORCHESTER...WICOMICO...AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN MARYLAND FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. AS WINDS BACK TO
THE NW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
HELP TO PUSH WATER ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
FORECAST ANOMALIES AT CAMBRIDGE ARE ONLY SHOWING TO BE AROUND
0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...AND ABOUT 1.0 FT DURING THE SECOND HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENCE OF NW WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADDITION TO ALL LEVELS INCREASING (FORECAST/TIDE/SURGE)
DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING...
WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF
CHES BAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY NUISANCE TYPE COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTG TO INCRS THROUGH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE RMNS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE ANOMALIES LOWER ON THU. NNW WNDS TO
RMN STRONG/GUSTY INTO THU. HIGHEST THREAT FOR (ANY) COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE THE LWR CHES BAY (SEWELLS POINT/CBBT)...ALG THE
ERN SIDE OF THE CHES BAY...AND FOR LOCATIONS LIKE OCEAN
CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE/WALLOPSISLAND - FROM THE BAYS INSTEAD OF THE
OCN. LATEST GUID INDICATING MODERATE FLOODING THIS
AFTN...APPROACHING SEVERE INVOF OCEAN CITY (BY TNGTS HI
TIDE)...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ELSW. KEEPING COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CSTL LWR MD...AND HAVE ADDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE VA
ERN SHR...AND ALG THE LWR BAY (NORFOLK/VA BCH) (FOR THAT MINOR
FLOODING CONCERN). LASTLY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS OF THE LWR
MD ERN SHR ALG THE CHES BAY FROM DORCHESTER TO SOMERSET COUNTIES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ095-
098>100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB/BMD/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD/AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1132 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE DELAWARE COAST...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG LO PRES WELL E OF THE DE CST...WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNE THIS
AFTN THRU TNGT. ADJUSTED POPS AND WORDING OVR THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENG...BASED ON LATEST SAT PIX AND RUC PARAMETERS. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVR THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
VA NRN NECK...DUE TO BEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOIST
(PCPN) TO MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA. JUST HAVE ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN
MENTIONED ACRS JUST ABT THE REMAINDER OF VA AND NC. CONTINUED
WITH CHC OF LGT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH RAIN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND N OF I-64...ESPLY OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHR...WHERE LO-
LVL THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND
H85 TEMPS STAY BLO 0C. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO MILD/WET GROUND. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER FAR ERN AREAS. HI
TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S N TO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S
S. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE MID TO UPR 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ASIDE FROM LINGERING -RA/-SN OVER EASTERN AREAS IN THE MRNG...DRY
WX EXPECTED ON THU. TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LO PRES WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BLO NORMAL WITH NW FLOW AND UPR-LVL TROF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S OVER THE LWR MD EASTERN
SHORE TO THE MID 50S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA. SFC HI PRES
BLDS OVER THE AREA THU NGT INTO FRI AS TEMPS WARM SLGTLY...HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS A WEAKENING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INCLUDED A 30 POP FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 THIS WEEKEND
AND WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING WARM TO THE 40S MONDAY
MORNING AND THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CSTL STORM CONTG TO INTENSIFY OFFSHR AS IT TRACKS NNE THROUGH TDA.
MVFR CONDS GENLY CONFINED TO ERN PORTION OF FA RIGHT NOW. MDL GUID
CONTS TO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KECG AND KSBY. IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED INTERMITTENTLY DURING HEAVIER PCPN. NNW WINDS
GUSTY...STRONGEST NR THE CST. GUSTY N/NW WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY AT SBY AS PCPN AND LWR CIGS SLOLY PULL OUT. VFR SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LO PRES (WELL) E OF THE VA CAPES CONTS TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
THROUGH TDA AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE. WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCRSD...AND
WILL HAVE STRONG SCAS ON THE RIVERS/BAY/SND INTO THU...W/ GALES ON
THE OCN (HIGHEST SPEEDS NRN WTRS TO PSBLY 45 KT). THERE IS SOME
CONCERN ABT LO END GALES ON PORTIONS OF THE BAY...MNLY N OF NEW
POINT COMFORT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTG TO INCRS THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE RMNS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE
ANOMALIES LOWER ON THU. NNW WNDS TO RMN STRONG/GUSTY INTO THU.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR (ANY) COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE THE LWR CHES BAY
(SEWELLS POINT/CBBT)...ALG THE ERN SIDE OF THE CHES BAY...AND FOR
LOCATIONS LIKE OCEAN CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE/WALLOPSISLAND - FROM THE BAYS
INSTEAD OF THE OCN. LATEST GUID INDICATING MODERATE FLOODING THIS
AFTN...APPROACHING SEVERE INVOF OCEAN CITY (BY TNGTS HI
TIDE)...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ELSW. KEEPING COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CSTL LWR MD...AND HAVE ADDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE VA
ERN SHR...AND ALG THE LWR BAY (NORFOLK/VA BCH) (FOR THAT MINOR
FLOODING CONCERN). LASTLY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS OF THE LWR
MD ERN SHR ALG THE CHES BAY FROM DORCHESTER TO SOMERSET COUNTIES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ095-
098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
314 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012
AT 3 PM...A SURFACE RIDGE WAS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /BELOW 900 MB/
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE 07.12Z GFS
AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST THAT AS THE WINDS PICK UP ON WESTERN SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE...THE MOISTURE LIFTS AND EVENTUALLY MIXES OUT AS
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY THINNER. THESE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS WILL
INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS
EVENING...AND SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE LATEST RAP IS INSISTENT THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING VERY LITTLE
CLOUDS ON THIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...WENT ALONG WITH
THE GFS AND NAM/WRF. HOWEVER A BIT CONCERNED THAT THAT THE TIME OF
DAY WOULD FAVOR THE RAP SOLUTION. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES TOO COLD.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND DRY
AIR /290-300K CONDENSATION DEFICITS GREATER THAN 100 MB/ BEING
ADVECTED OFF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF WESTERN UNITED STATES
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS WAVES APPROACHES WEAK TO MODERATE
290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE CONDENSATION
DEFICITS SLOWLY DROP FROM OVER 100 MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 20 TO
50 MBS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE 850 MB
TRANSPORT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/WRF IS THE SLOWEST AT SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...IT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT GETS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE
GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER OUR
AREA. SINCE THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAS REMAINED INCONSISTENT...
KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM/WRF SUGGESTING MLCAPES WILL UP TO 400 J/KG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
314 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012
ON SATURDAY...THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE
THIS IS THE CASE...THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THE
NAM/WRF AND GEM HAVE THE STRONGEST CAP...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER CAP WHICH ALLOWS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHPUT THE DAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS TIME PERIOD...JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WITH NO PRECIPITATION...THE MLCAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 600 J/KG IN
THE NAM/WRF. MEANWHILE THE PRECIPITATION THE GFS AND ECMWF LIMITS
THE MLCAPES TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE
IN ALL 3 MODELS FOR MINI SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER A
MAJORITY OF THIS SHEAR IS LOCATED IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT BECOME SURFACE BASED...THESE STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH AND AS A RESULT THEY
WOULD NOT HAVE ADEQUATE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE THEMSELVES INTO MINI
SUPERCELLS.
THE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY IS HOW WARM THE AREA WILL GET.
850 MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NAM/WRF HAS LITTLE CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH
ALLOWS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE CLOUD COVER AND ITS TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY
STAYED WITH THE ALL BLEND WHICH HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG PV ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS...KEPT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE 55 TO 74 RANGE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30S. SOUNDINGS
ALOFT SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ICE CRYSTALS BEING
INTRODUCED FROM ALOFT...THUS...SOME SNOW STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THIS RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION
OCCURS.
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE 07.12Z MODELS
ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS AT MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. WANTED TO FOLLOW THEM...BUT COULD
NOT GET ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO GO AWAY FROM THE ALL BLEND MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1152 AM CST WED NOV 7 2012
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. LATEST 17Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
KANSAS AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN...EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA. LATEST METARS INDICATE CEILING HEIGHTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT 1500 TO 3000 FEET AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LAYER AT OR
ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. WITH REGION REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING.
LATEST 07.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE CEILINGS LIFTING UP
ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED SCATTERED DECK OF CLOUDS AT 2000-2500 FEET AND A
BROKEN/OVERCAST LAYER AT 4000 FEET. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA AND OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ON
THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO ERODE BY 06Z THURSDAY AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND
WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT BOTH TAF SITES BY 13Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY 12Z-13Z
AT RST AND LSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
200 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ