Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/05/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE AROUND TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROUGH PHASING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
INTERESTING MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR H7 ON THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING.
LARGE PICTURE NOT REALLY MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THE
IMPULSE...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUD ENHANCEMENT LATER TODAY AND VIRGA OR
EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN EASTERN AREAS
(HINTED AT BY BOTH 14Z HRRR AND 12Z U OF AZ WRF-NAM).
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MIGHT EVEN COME CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN A FEW
SPOTS TUESDAY OR SO.
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP NICELY.
REASONABLE TRENDS ON 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WITH 12Z GFS NOT QUITE AS
DEEP. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
IMPACT OVER NEXT WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FIRST HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN STORY.
&&
.AVIATION...KTUS VICINITY EWD FEW-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL TODAY
THEN SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KTUS SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU 04/15Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING OR 04/15Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY. STRONG
WARMING EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREAFTER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 223 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE
HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 750 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH MIXED CAPE VALUES CONSIDERABLY LOWER. BAND OF PRE-
FRONTAL -RA CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA BUT NO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF NOTE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THUS
FAR. INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...FEEL BY THE TIME STRONG OR
SEVERE COULD BE REALIZED...BEST LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SCALE BACK THE HWO AND ONGOING
GRAPHICAST ONCE DEVELOPING LINE SHIFTS EAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY SHORT TERM DAY WITH FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS AS HIGH CENTERED OVER CANADA HAS ENOUGH WEAK RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE OUR AREA TO PRODUCE A POP FREE DAY. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL DURING THE DAY HAS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKES A RAPID RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE AS THEIR ARRIVAL PRIOR TO
SUNSET WILL RESULT IN MINS TUESDAY MORNING NOT REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL AS PRECIP BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA IN EARNEST JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
ROTATES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. NAM12 IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DYNAMICALLY COOLING THE COLUMN...TAKING THE 850MB
TEMP FROM +2C TO -1C IN A MATTER OF TWO HOURS. NOT COMPLETELY OUR
OF THE QUESTION WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO SEE THIS TYPE OF
COOLING ALOFT...BUT JUST CANNOT SEEM TO GET SURFACE TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS IS TRUE
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP FORECAST ALL LIQUID THIS RUN
BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT CYCLES.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEST SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE LOW...WILL NEED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 223 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AND FOR THE MOST PART AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF. CORRESPONDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ANCHORING ITSELF IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY BUT
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. HAVE MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
BIG FORECAST STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST DEEPENING OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT OF THE PROJECTED TRACK...EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANGES TO
INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN GA LATE ON MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL...CUTTING
OFF THE AREA FROM MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE
NORTHERN MOISTURE PROGRESSION. LITTLE OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR SE CWA TUESDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EMERGES OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DRY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
PRECIP HAS DRIED UP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST. CIGS ALSO RAISING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WILL
REMAIN VFR. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ALL SITES
HAVING SCT250 BY 03Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO 3
TO 5 KTS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER
12Z MONDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CIGS TO MOVE INTO WEST GEORGIA TOWARD 00Z TUE...SPREADING INTO
ATL AFTER 00Z WITH SOME 4000 FT CIGS BY 04Z TUE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 44 62 42 / 30 5 0 50
ATLANTA 73 43 64 46 / 30 0 0 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 37 57 40 / 20 0 0 50
CARTERSVILLE 68 38 63 41 / 20 0 0 60
COLUMBUS 79 44 69 48 / 30 20 0 80
GAINESVILLE 69 45 60 44 / 20 0 0 50
MACON 83 43 68 44 / 30 30 0 80
ROME 67 36 64 40 / 20 0 0 60
PEACHTREE CITY 73 37 65 40 / 40 0 0 70
VIDALIA 86 54 68 49 / 30 40 0 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
UPDATE...
SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE
MADE SOME UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS...TEMPS
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW FORECAST BUT WITH FULL SUN THEY SHOULD
CATCH UP NICELY SO OVERALL NO CHANGES WORTH ISSUING NEW PRODUCTS
OVER. NEW HRRR AND THE 00Z FFCWRF KEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND PRETTY ANEMIC AT THAT...SO
CURRENT POPS HANDLE THAT WELL AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE IF
NECESSARY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
ERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES...THE FIRST
BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...WILL MOVE SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
SUNDAY WITH WEAK TO MDT WAA ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH NRN GA AND
THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT ENOUGH COMBINED LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THEN SCT LIGHT SHRA. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AND WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. 00Z MODELS...ESP 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...AND EVEN SFC BASED
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1000 J/KG AROUND 18-21Z. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE RETURN...HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN NAM AND
LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA IN FCST FOR
TONIGHT. DID ADD TSRA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS ATTM AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT....LACK OF STRONG SFC FORCING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL NOT BE AT FAVORABLE
LEVELS. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF CWA BY
LATE SUN NIGHT...SO HAVE PUSHED OUT POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
FRONT. USED BIAS-CORRECTED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND
MAV/MET BLEND WITH HIGHER WEIGHT TOWARD MAV FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT WAVE SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE TRACK WILL KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS...WITH
GOOD CLOUD COVER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD SHOT TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEEKS END.
ATWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD EVERYWHERE BUT MCN
WHERE MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 12Z. SW
WINDS TODAY...5-10KT AT ATL AND BELOW 5KT ELSEWHERE...WILL PICK
UP ON SUNDAY TO CLOSER TO 10KT AND TURN MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A
FRONT. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA AT MOST SITES THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BUT
PROB30 WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MCN AND CSG THEREAFTER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 53 73 48 / 0 10 20 20
ATLANTA 76 58 72 49 / 0 20 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 62 41 / 0 20 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 76 54 68 43 / 0 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 82 59 79 52 / 0 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 73 55 69 47 / 0 20 20 20
MACON 80 53 80 51 / 0 10 30 20
ROME 77 52 67 41 / 0 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 73 44 / 0 10 20 20
VIDALIA 78 57 81 55 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.UPDATE...
SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE
MADE SOME UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS...TEMPS
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW FORECAST BUT WITH FULL SUN THEY SHOULD
CATCH UP NICELY SO OVERALL NO CHANGES WORTH ISSUING NEW PRODUCTS
OVER. NEW HRRR AND THE 00Z FFCWRF KEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND PRETTY ANEMIC AT THAT...SO
CURRENT POPS HANDLE THAT WELL AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE IF
NECESSARY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
ERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES...THE FIRST
BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...WILL MOVE SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
SUNDAY WITH WEAK TO MDT WAA ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH NRN GA AND
THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT ENOUGH COMBINED LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THEN SCT LIGHT SHRA. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AND WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. 00Z MODELS...ESP 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...AND EVEN SFC BASED
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1000 J/KG AROUND 18-21Z. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE RETURN...HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN NAM AND
LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA IN FCST FOR
TONIGHT. DID ADD TSRA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS ATTM AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT....LACK OF STRONG SFC FORCING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL NOT BE AT FAVORABLE
LEVELS. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF CWA BY
LATE SUN NIGHT...SO HAVE PUSHED OUT POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
FRONT. USED BIAS-CORRECTED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND
MAV/MET BLEND WITH HIGHER WEIGHT TOWARD MAV FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT WAVE SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE TRACK WILL KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS...WITH
GOOD CLOUD COVER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD SHOT TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEEKS END.
ATWELL
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY. AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY SWITCH TO SE
AROUND 14-17Z THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO SW 4-8KTS. CU AROUND
4000FT SHOULD STAY SCT ALL DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 14Z AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE STATE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON DURATION OF SE WINDS THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 53 73 48 / 5 10 20 20
ATLANTA 76 58 72 49 / 0 20 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 62 41 / 10 20 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 76 54 68 43 / 5 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 82 59 79 52 / 0 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 73 55 69 47 / 5 20 20 20
MACON 80 53 80 51 / 0 10 30 20
ROME 77 52 67 41 / 5 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 73 44 / 0 10 20 20
VIDALIA 78 57 81 55 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
249 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT...POSSIBLY SCATTERING FOR A TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH
2130-22Z.
* LAKE-INDUCED MVFR STRATOCU LIKELY REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT KMDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL AT MIDDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS WI...MAINTAINING BROKEN
MID-LEVEL DECK ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS HAD
SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BENEATH THE MID-CLOUDS...MVFR STRATOCU IN THE
2500-3000 FT RANGE HAS PUSHED INLAND OFF OF THE LAKE...THOUGH
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS ERODING DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WIND FIELD WEAKENS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS EVENING...INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE AND REINFORCING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PUSH OF MVFR STRATOCU. GYY AND MDW WOULD APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT CEILINGS IN THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ORD/DPA
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. EXPECT BASES TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BEYOND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THESE LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDS...THOUGH TIMING/LOCATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN POINT FORECASTS ATTM.
WINDS...10 KTS OR LESS SHOULD BACK FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY FLOP TO 340-350 LATE
THIS EVENING AT ORD/DPA BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT...POSSIBLY SCATTERING FOR A TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* LAKE-INDUCED MVFR STRATOCU LIKELY REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT KMDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL AT MIDDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS WI...MAINTAINING BROKEN
MID-LEVEL DECK ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS HAD
SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BENEATH THE MID-CLOUDS...MVFR STRATOCU IN THE
2500-3000 FT RANGE HAS PUSHED INLAND OFF OF THE LAKE...THOUGH
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS ERODING DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WIND FIELD WEAKENS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS EVENING...INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE AND REINFORCING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PUSH OF MVFR STRATOCU. GYY AND MDW WOULD APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT CEILINGS IN THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ORD/DPA
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. EXPECT BASES TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BEYOND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THESE LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDS...THOUGH TIMING/LOCATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN POINT FORECASTS ATTM.
WINDS...10 KTS OR LESS SHOULD BACK FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY FLOP TO 340-350 LATE
THIS EVENING AT ORD/DPA BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* LOW PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES FOR SAME TIME RANGE.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINS TREND OF HOLDING 2500-3000 FT CIGS ACROSS
CHI AREA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH INDICATION OF
SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK RADAR RETURNS
DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SPRINKLES...THOUGH REFLECTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OVER PAST 2 HOURS
AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR TO WEAKEN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON LOWERING PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN WI. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES AND WILL
THROUGH TODAY...MEANING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A LITTLE LAKE EMPHASIS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW KNOT INCREASE...BUT ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL PREVAIL. THE FLOW OFF THE WARM LAKE CONTINUES TO OFFER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN OVER ORD AND DPA
FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGOLAND SITES OF MDW AND GYY...THE BROKEN CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE TEMPORARY...WITH MORNING MODEL TRAJECTORIES
BEING MORE FROM THE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THE
HEART OF THE LAKE. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ARE PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
CONVONECTION OVER CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH A THICK MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND GRADUAL ASCENT
WITHIN THAT LAYER...ATOP A LOWER STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER...THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS LIGHTEN...BUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AGAIN
WILL POTENTIALLY STEER BACK IN MORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPEICALLY FOR GYY AIRPORT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-3500 FT CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS MID/LATE AFTN.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT PROBABLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN WI. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES AND WILL
THROUGH TODAY...MEANING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A LITTLE LAKE EMPHASIS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW KNOT INCREASE...BUT ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL PREVAIL. THE FLOW OFF THE WARM LAKE CONTINUES TO OFFER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN OVER ORD AND DPA
FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGOLAND SITES OF MDW AND GYY...THE BROKEN CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE TEMPORARY...WITH MORNING MODEL TRAJECTORIES
BEING MORE FROM THE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THE
HEART OF THE LAKE. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ARE PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
CONVONECTION OVER CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH A THICK MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND GRADUAL ASCENT
WITHIN THAT LAYER...ATOP A LOWER STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER...THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS LIGHTEN...BUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AGAIN
WILL POTENTIALLY STEER BACK IN MORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPEICALLY FOR GYY AIRPORT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-3500 FT CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
BROKEN CIGS REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
801 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS PROBABLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN WI. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES AND WILL
THROUGH TODAY...MEANING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A LITTLE LAKE EMPHASIS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW KNOT INCREASE...BUT ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL PREVAIL. THE FLOW OFF THE WARM LAKE CONTINUES TO OFFER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN OVER ORD AND DPA
FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGOLAND SITES OF MDW AND GYY...THE BROKEN CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE TEMPORARY...WITH MORNING MODEL TRAJECTORIES
BEING MORE FROM THE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THE
HEART OF THE LAKE. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ARE PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
CONVONECTION OVER CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH A THICK MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND GRADUAL ASCENT
WITHIN THAT LAYER...ATOP A LOWER STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER...THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS LIGHTEN...BUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AGAIN
WILL POTENTIALLY STEER BACK IN MORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPEICALLY FOR GYY AIRPORT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-3500 FT CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
BROKEN CIGS REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
214 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH
NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES
AND LIKELY RFD BY LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY AT
CONSTANT HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2200 AND 3500 FT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
MORNING LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS/AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST
PROJECTIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A BLANKET
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. GRADUAL ASCENT WITHIN THIS AREA HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT ECHOES. WITH THIS PASSING OVER THE LOWER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE
PROCESSES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES.
OUTSIDE OF THAT SMALL CHANCE...THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK
TO POSSIBLY RE-EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT BE MORE FOCUSED TOWARD
NORTHWEST IN DUE TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CIGS
REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 1700 FT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...AM MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH
NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES
AND LIKELY RFD BY LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY AT
CONSTANT HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2200 AND 3500 FT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
MORNING LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS/AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST
PROJECTIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A BLANKET
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. GRADUAL ASCENT WITHIN THIS AREA HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT ECHOES. WITH THIS PASSING OVER THE LOWER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE
PROCESSES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES.
OUTSIDE OF THAT SMALL CHANCE...THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK
TO POSSIBLY RE-EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT BE MORE FOCUSED TOWARD
NORTHWEST IN DUE TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CIGS
REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 1700 FT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...AM MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. CID HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHEETS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
UPDATE...
THE WAA THAT PRODUCED THE EARLIER SPRINKLES WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE
OF SHRA IN THE FAR SOUTH HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
ILLINOIS. RADAR IS SHOWING PROBABLE VIRGA/MID CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH PER RAP TRENDS WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND
FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS.
THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL BE OFFSET BY THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
IDEA THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
LATE TONIGHT THE 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOWERING OF THE
850-700MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE THETA E
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY DIFFUSE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO
THE CWFA IT WOULD BE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF DECAYING SPRINKLES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
656 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.UPDATE...
THE WAA THAT PRODUCED THE EARLIER SPRINKLES WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE
OF SHRA IN THE FAR SOUTH HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
ILLINOIS. RADAR IS SHOWING PROBABLE VIRGA/MID CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH PER RAP TRENDS WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND
FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS.
THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL BE OFFSET BY THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
IDEA THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
LATE TONIGHT THE 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOWERING OF THE
850-700MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE THETA E
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY DIFFUSE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO
THE CWFA IT WOULD BE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF DECAYING SPRINKLES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/04. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TAKING ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH IT. AN
APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE AFT 06Z/04 MIGHT RESULT IN SOME
SPRINKLES AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AT KCID. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KJLN AND ANOTHER NEAR KSPS.
DISCONTINUOUS FRONTS CONNECTED THE LOWS. WEAK INVERTED TROFS
EXTENDED FROM THE KJLN LOW INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO WESTERN
IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 20S AND 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST. RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA WITH
SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND RAP TRENDS...THE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LLJ AND THETA E
GRADIENT SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA. IT APPEARS THAT A LONE SHRA RAN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER WITH HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE TIME...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT
THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FILTERED SUN TO BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO OR JUST A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE WARMER START.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA WITH 850-700MB CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING BUT THE 1000-850MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE THETA E GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE IS WEAK AND VERY DIFFUSE AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS
EITHER NOT THERE OR VERY WEAK. SPRINKLES LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE
OPTED TO GO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 08
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEFORE WARMING TREND LATE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
BY NEXT WEEKEND IN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
COUPLE OF BOUTS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH S/W CWA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON... AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WBZ HEIGHTS 3500-4500 FT AGL SUPPORTS ALL LIQUID
PTYPE AT SFC DESPITE WHAT MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALGORITHMS
DEPICT. THE SECOND BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TUE WITH NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION WING. AMOUNTS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY TRACE TO AROUND 0.1 INCH.
MAINLY DRY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT.
PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND OR POSSIBLY JUST BEYOND... WITH FAVORABLE
HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE
PUMPING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH. TEMPS ABOVE TO POSSIBLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FRI THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. 05
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KJLN AND ANOTHER NEAR KSPS.
DISCONTINUOUS FRONTS CONNECTED THE LOWS. WEAK INVERTED TROFS
EXTENDED FROM THE KJLN LOW INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO WESTERN
IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 20S AND 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST. RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA WITH
SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND RAP TRENDS...THE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LLJ AND THETA E
GRADIENT SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA. IT APPEARS THAT A LONE SHRA RAN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER WITH HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE TIME...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT
THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FILTERED SUN TO BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO OR JUST A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE WARMER START.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA WITH 850-700MB CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING BUT THE 1000-850MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE THETA E GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE IS WEAK AND VERY DIFFUSE AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS
EITHER NOT THERE OR VERY WEAK. SPRINKLES LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE
OPTED TO GO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 08
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEFORE WARMING TREND LATE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
BY NEXT WEEKEND IN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
COUPLE OF BOUTS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH S/W CWA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON... AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WBZ HEIGHTS 3500-4500 FT AGL SUPPORTS ALL LIQUID
PTYPE AT SFC DESPITE WHAT MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALGORITHMS
DEPICT. THE SECOND BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TUE WITH NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION WING. AMOUNTS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY TRACE TO AROUND 0.1 INCH.
MAINLY DRY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT.
PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND OR POSSIBLY JUST BEYOND... WITH FAVORABLE
HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE
PUMPING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH. TEMPS ABOVE TO POSSIBLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FRI THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. 05
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/04. SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN
AT KBRL PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 08
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH NO MORE THAN A SCATTERED
LAYER OF STRATUS BLO 3000 FEET BY 02Z-03Z. THEREAFTER...THICKENING
MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 10-15KFT WILL PROGRESS OVER THE AREA WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GENERAL AREA ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CEILINGS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING BLO 10KFT ATTM.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A STABLE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM GRASP OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING A RIBBON OF
VORTICITY ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE ND/MN ANOMALY...STRINGING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING A WING OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENSIS SLIDING OVER THE CWA.
THIS FORCING IS NOW DRIVING THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS/LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SATURATED/WEAK LAPSE RATE LAYER BETWEEN 15-20 KFT AGL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FORCING...NECESSITATING AN INCREASED MENTION
OF CLOUDS. A DEEP DRY SLAB WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN 4-15 KFT
AGL...WITH NO REAL SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LACK OF SFC HYDROMETEORS BEING REPORTED IN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY...WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE ABLE TO HANG ON FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE BULK OF THE THUMB. OTHERWISE...DO NOT
WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH RAISING MINIMUMS...GIVEN THE COLD
SURFACE RIDGE AND NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUD CONCERNS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SINKING MOTION FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS SHALLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINTAINING COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE THE
NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON IS LAKE EFFECT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE THUMB REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION LEVEL AROUND 3-4K FEET WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB.
THE SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRY AIR AND RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
DELTA T VALUES LEND ITSELF TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THIS AREA BEING THE EXPECTED RESULT OF THE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...WITH NO WAY TO TAP INTO THE
MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE NOREASTER TRACKING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SEVERELY MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AS THE SYSTEM FAILS TO PULL IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THE RIDGING WILL ALSO PULL IN
SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE WEST AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
EVENTUALLY AROUND +10 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT SATURDAYS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR BELOW BY LATE
EVENING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL BELOW 5
FEET OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS DOWN OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ443...UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
SANILAC...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A STABLE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM GRASP OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING A RIBBON OF
VORTICITY ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE ND/MN ANOMALY...STRINGING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING A WING OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENSIS SLIDING OVER THE CWA.
THIS FORCING IS NOW DRIVING THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS/LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SATURATED/WEAK LAPSE RATE LAYER BETWEEN 15-20 KFT AGL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FORCING...NECESSITATING AN INCREASED MENTION
OF CLOUDS. A DEEP DRY SLAB WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN 4-15 KFT
AGL...WITH NO REAL SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LACK OF SFC HYDROMETEORS BEING REPORTED IN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY...WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE ABLE TO HANG ON FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE BULK OF THE THUMB. OTHERWISE...DO NOT
WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH RAISING MINIMUMS...GIVEN THE COLD
SURFACE RIDGE AND NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUD CONCERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SINKING MOTION FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS SHALLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINTAINING COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE THE
NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON IS LAKE EFFECT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE THUMB REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION LEVEL AROUND 3-4K FEET WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB.
THE SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRY AIR AND RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
DELTA T VALUES LEND ITSELF TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THIS AREA BEING THE EXPECTED RESULT OF THE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...WITH NO WAY TO TAP INTO THE
MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE NOREASTER TRACKING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SEVERELY MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AS THE SYSTEM FAILS TO PULL IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THE RIDGING WILL ALSO PULL IN
SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE WEST AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
EVENTUALLY AROUND +10 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT SATURDAYS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR BELOW BY LATE
EVENING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL BELOW 5
FEET OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS DOWN OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 142 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR STRATUS HAS FILLED BACK IN THIS MORNING WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE 12Z DTX RAOB AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MORE
MOISTURE/SATURATION TO CONTEND WITH THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE
RESOLVED. GIVEN THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW...WILL TAKE A MORE
AGGRESSIVE APPROACH WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC CLOUD CANOPY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOME ENERGY SHEARING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AOA 12 KFT AGL FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
AT DTW...BEEN WATCHING SATURATION AT 2 KFT AGL OCCUR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION IF LOCAL
EFFECTS CAN KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT OF DTW DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
HOW AGGRESSIVE THE CLOUD EXPANSION HAS BEEN WILL BE INTRODUCING AN
MVFR CLOUD GROUP FOR STRETCH THIS AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES AND TIMING OF CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ443...UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
SANILAC...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
UPDATED TO GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. KAPX
AND KDTX MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY...WHICH IS
KEEPING THE BULK OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE ISSUE THOUGH IS THAT MOISTURE HAS
STREAMED SOUTH OFF OF SUPERIOR AND THE VERY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND HURON. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION AND NOT ERODING MUCH. IN FACT THERE HAS BEEN A DIURNAL
EXPANSION ON THE EDGES. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD COVER THINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY NOSE INTO THE
LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS.
UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION/VIRGA OVER WISCONSIN.
VERY FEW IF ANY OB SITES ARE REPORTING PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL
THOUGH. MADISON DID REPORT A FEW FLURRIES AN HOUR AGO. FEEL THAT
THE MID LEVELS ARE A BIT TOO DRY TO BRING PRECIP IN SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z NSSL WRF. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
WILL BE VIRGA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN DRY WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND WE ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS A
LITTLE. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS OVER NRN LWR AS
WELL AS NW OF THE CWA ACROSS THE LAKE AND WISCONSIN WITH MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH MORE AS THE LOWER ATM
IS QUITE DRY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE PREVALENT. GIVEN THAT FLOW WILL BE
OFF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WE ADDED SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
TO THE FAR NW THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NNE AND THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL END.
FAIR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER.
THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK
VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL... WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW STRUGGLING TO
EVEN SQUEEZE OUT QPF.
THE MAIN ATTENTION GRABBER IS THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES... WITH A
BUILDING UPR RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES. H8 TEMPS OF 7 TO
10C ARE PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY... WITH EVEN
WARMER AIR EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
MVFR CIGS WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 KFT AGL RANGE
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
CANCELED THE SCA EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND
LOWER WAVES. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
NO ISSUES THIS MORNING. DRY WX EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1141 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
UPDATED TO GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. KAPX
AND KDTX MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY...WHICH IS
KEEPING THE BULK OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE ISSUE THOUGH IS THAT MOISTURE HAS
STREAMED SOUTH OFF OF SUPERIOR AND THE VERY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND HURON. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION AND NOT ERODING MUCH. IN FACT THERE HAS BEEN A DIURNAL
EXPANSION ON THE EDGES. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD COVER THINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY NOSE INTO THE
LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS.
UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION/VIRGA OVER WISCONSIN.
VERY FEW IF ANY OB SITES ARE REPORTING PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL
THOUGH. MADISON DID REPORT A FEW FLURRIES AN HOUR AGO. FEEL THAT
THE MID LEVELS ARE A BIT TOO DRY TO BRING PRECIP IN SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z NSSL WRF. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
WILL BE VIRGA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN DRY WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND WE ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS A
LITTLE. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS OVER NRN LWR AS
WELL AS NW OF THE CWA ACROSS THE LAKE AND WISCONSIN WITH MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH MORE AS THE LOWER ATM
IS QUITE DRY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE PREVALENT. GIVEN THAT FLOW WILL BE
OFF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WE ADDED SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
TO THE FAR NW THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NNE AND THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL END.
FAIR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER.
THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK
VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL... WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW STRUGGLING TO
EVEN SQUEEZE OUT QPF.
THE MAIN ATTENTION GRABBER IS THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES... WITH A
BUILDING UPR RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES. H8 TEMPS OF 7 TO
10C ARE PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY... WITH EVEN
WARMER AIR EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED OVER WRN AND NRN LWR MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED BY NOON
LEAVING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 12K FT WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
CANCELED THE SCA EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND
LOWER WAVES. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
NO ISSUES THIS MORNING. DRY WX EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
INHERITED FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
EVENING. LGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY ACROSS OUR IL COUNTIES. STILL WAITING ON THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SSE OUT OF
ERN NEBRASKA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SFC LOW OVER WRN IA. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIVES
THRU WRN MO OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ECHOS ACROSS
IA AND NW MO ARE VERY LIGHT ATTM BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE
AS THE SHORT WAVE GETS CLOSER. MONDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAMP DAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM N-S. NOT MUCH RISE ON TEMPS EXPECTED
EITHER WITH AN ERLY WIND AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
MILLER
MILLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(TONIGHT)
POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKEWISE DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND LINK UP WITH A BROAD/RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER KANSAS. THE COMBINED SURFACE TROF WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING A SWATH OF RAIN
OUT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE HRRR IS ESPECIALLY FAST
BRINGING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MO AS EARLY AS 03Z...AND SPREADING TO
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z. AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE 3-6HRS SLOWER...BUT WILL
BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR A FASTER ONSET OF RAIN.
CARNEY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALIVE AND WELL ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THIS LONGWAVE TROF AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE THE NATIONS WEATHER STORY...AS THE NOR`EASTER BRINGS
STRONG WIND...RAIN...AND EVEN SOME WINTER WEATHER TO AREAS STILL
REELING FROM SANDY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MISSOURI. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. HAVE WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE LOWEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. RAIN SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A FINAL SHORTWAVE...THE CABOOSE...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND AN EASTERN TRACK TO THE DISTURBANCE KEEPS POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CONFINED TO ILLINOIS COUNTIES. SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION BY WEEKS END AS A
MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM CARVES A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH HELPS AMPLIFY A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
END RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS LARGE UPPER TROF WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL DROP
S-SEWD THROUGH WRN MO LATE TGT AND MON MRNG. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY SPREAD SEWD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVNG ALONG WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVNG INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY LATE
TGT IN UIN AND COU AND IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON MRNG.
THE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR CATAGORY ON MON. SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD SEWD INTO UIN AND COU LATE TGT AND INTO THE
ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON MRNG WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 5-6SM. A
SELY SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN ELY DIRECTION MON AFTN AS THE
WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS SW OF THE AREA.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THE CLOUD CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY BY EARLY MON MRNG AS
LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SPRINKLES TGT BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN DROPPING VSBYS TO 5-6SM SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
EARLY MON MRNG. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT SE OF STL BY EARLY MON EVNG
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. A LIGHT ELY SFC WIND WILL VEER
AROUND TO A SELY DIRECTION THIS EVNG...AND INCREASE TO 8-9 KTS
MON MRNG. THE SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN ELY DIRECTION BY
EARLY MON EVNG AS IT BECOMES LIGHT AGAIN.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
613 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(TONIGHT)
POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKEWISE DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND LINK UP WITH A BROAD/RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER KANSAS. THE COMBINED SURFACE TROF WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING A SWATH OF RAIN
OUT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE HRRR IS ESPECIALLY FAST
BRINGING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MO AS EARLY AS 03Z...AND SPREADING TO
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z. AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE 3-6HRS SLOWER...BUT WILL
BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR A FASTER ONSET OF RAIN.
CARNEY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALIVE AND WELL ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THIS LONGWAVE TROF AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE THE NATIONS WEATHER STORY...AS THE NOR`EASTER BRINGS
STRONG WIND...RAIN...AND EVEN SOME WINTER WEATHER TO AREAS STILL
REELING FROM SANDY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MISSOURI. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. HAVE WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE LOWEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. RAIN SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A FINAL SHORTWAVE...THE CABOOSE...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND AN EASTERN TRACK TO THE DISTURBANCE KEEPS POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CONFINED TO ILLINOIS COUNTIES. SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION BY WEEKS END AS A
MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM CARVES A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH HELPS AMPLIFY A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
END RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS LARGE UPPER TROF WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL DROP
S-SEWD THROUGH WRN MO LATE TGT AND MON MRNG. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY SPREAD SEWD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVNG ALONG WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVNG INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY LATE
TGT IN UIN AND COU AND IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON MRNG.
THE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR CATAGORY ON MON. SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD SEWD INTO UIN AND COU LATE TGT AND INTO THE
ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON MRNG WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 5-6SM. A
SELY SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN ELY DIRECTION MON AFTN AS THE
WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS SW OF THE AREA.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THE CLOUD CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY BY EARLY MON MRNG AS
LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SPRINKLES TGT BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN DROPPING VSBYS TO 5-6SM SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
EARLY MON MRNG. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT SE OF STL BY EARLY MON EVNG
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. A LIGHT ELY SFC WIND WILL VEER
AROUND TO A SELY DIRECTION THIS EVNG...AND INCREASE TO 8-9 KTS
MON MRNG. THE SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN ELY DIRECTION BY
EARLY MON EVNG AS IT BECOMES LIGHT AGAIN.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF WILL PERSIST THROUGH ENTIRE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
ONLY CONCERN FOR KVTN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z.
UPSTREAM STRATUS IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR PHP. THE LATEST RAP MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12
INDICATE POTENTIAL. HAVE INTRODUCED A SCT009 CLOUD HEIGHT FROM
10Z-18Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER
18Z...FEW TO SCT080 WITH SCT TO BKN250. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AT OR
BELOW 6KT. HAVE ADDED SOME MIST FOG AND SOME BR TO TAFS WITH
DEVELOPING SCENARIO OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF AND KVTN WILL PERSIST THROUGH ENTIRE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER 18Z...FEW
TO SCT080 WITH SCT TO BKN250. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AT OR BELOW
6KT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WITH THE LIGHT WEST WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE
WENT FAIRLY COLD /UPPER 20S/ IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE BEST SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...IN AN AREA OF FAVORED LIFT SEEN FROM
MODEL GENERATED Q-VECTOR FIELDS. WHILE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE
EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...THE GFS AND EC DO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF
AS INCREASING JET ENERGY ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO WAFFLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES...BUT
WITH THE 12Z RUN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EC MODELING
CAMP WHICH FAVORS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
THIS PATTERN PLACES THE FAVORED LFQ OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOW THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF MEASURABLE QPF...SAVE FOR OUR FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES. SO WILL MAKE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEAVING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...WHERE PREVIOUSLY
INTRODUCED. OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIND
HEADLINES...BUT INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT IS SHOWN TO BE TRANSFERRED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE /PER BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS/ AS MIXING COMMENCES
ABOVE 750MB...A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNT OF EVENTUAL MIXING IS FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL ONLY TREND
WINDS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS WITHIN A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
IN ADVANCE OF WEAK WAVES/FRONTAL CONVERGENT PERIODS...ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL PLEASANT DAYS MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
60S...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND
POSSIBLY A 70 DEGREE READING OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...PRETTY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE EXPECTED UPPER PATTERN AS GIVEN BY THE 02.12Z
MODEL RUN IS NOT ALL THAT PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO UNFORTUNATELY WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. THE NARROW BAND OF STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE KGRI TERMINAL WITH
HIGH CLOUDS BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE STRATUS REDEVELOPS
AND MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ARE ALSO
NOTED...WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. THIS SATURATION HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000FT AGL PERSIST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DPVA AND MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS PRESENTING LITTLE IF ANY
OMEGA TO OUR AREA ONCE IT NEARS THE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD
DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. ALSO...THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BEING
USHERED INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE ALSO DISSIPATES. GIVEN AL THIS...A
CLEARING TREND SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT STRATUS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA 06Z ONWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND THE INFLUX OF A COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFILTRATES THE
REGION...WILL PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
~30-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. MET/NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND OPTED TO PLAY CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...WHICH PRESENTS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-20S TO
THE MID-30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS ALLOWING FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SATURDAY TEMPERATURE-RISES ON THE ORDER OF
25-30 DEGREES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH PRESENTS SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST DAYS WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES IT SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA...AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS IOWA AND
NEBRASKA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. WE CAME VERY CLOSE TO
PULLING THE SPRINKLES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE.
SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE IN THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SFC WIND WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF MORE SPRINKLES. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB MAY FALL TO
AROUND 0C ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BE A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...AND SPRINKLES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO BRING DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME VERY LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS EVE. WILL KEEP
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN OVRNGT. NAM DOES SHOW A CPL MORE WEAK
WVS SLIDING THRU LATE TNGT AND EARLY MON...BUT THE HRRR KEEPS ANY
LGT PCPN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OVER WRN NY. WITH THE MORE NLY
FLOW...XPCT CHANCE FOR ANY LGT LE TO BE MORE PSBL OVER THE WRN
ZONES AS THE NGT WEARS ON. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE CWA LATE
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME EARLY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP...WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN OUR ERN ZNS TNT.
THE CHARACTER OF THE CLOUD COVER IS TAKING ON A MORE OPEN CELLULAR
APPEARANCE EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR ATTM...AND FAIRLY SIG HOLES
HAVE OPENED UP IN THE EARLIER EXPANSIVE SC SHIELD UP OVER SRN QUE.
SINCE OUR LOW-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE INTO THE N AND
EVEN NNE OVERNIGHT...WE THINK THIS TYPE OF ENVIR WILL SETTLE ACRS
OUR ERN ZNS...WITH AT LEAST PTL CLEARING ANTICIPATED AFTER 00-03Z.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER W THROUGH THE FINGER LKS RGN...WHERE A LOW-LVL MOIST
FEED WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED S OF LK ONT...CLDS SHOULD BE MORE
STUBBORN...WITH A FEW FLRYS EVEN ANTICIPATED...AS BLYR CAA IS
RENEWED FOR A BRIEF PD OVERNIGHT.
OUR NE PA ZNS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURG THE NGT...EXCPT FOR
PERHAPS BRADFORD/WRN SUSQ CNTYS...WHERE THE ABV MENTIONED CLOUDS
FROM LK ONT COULD MOVE IN FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM UPDATE... QUIET WX FORESEEN THIS PD...WITH SFC RIDGING OUR
DOMINANT FEATURE.
AM CLDS/SCTD FLRYS MON IN OUR WRN ZNS...SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BREAK UP BY 18Z...AS THE DEPTH OF DRIER AIR FINALLY OVERWHELMS THE
MOIST BLYR ENVIR. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT MAINLY CLR SKIES MON
NGT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON TUE. MID TO HIGH-LVL CLDS MAY WELL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LTR TUE NGT...FAR IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL ADVERTISED
EAST COAST STORM SLATED TO ARRIVE IN THE LONG-TERM PD (MORE ON
THIS BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STORM DEVELOPING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH THE STORM WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CANADIAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE... MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LEARNING TOWARD THE ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MODELS HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER MINOR POSITIONING DIFFERENCES WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. THE GFS WOULD
BASICALLY INDICATE A NON- EVENT FOR OUR AREA... THE CANADIAN WOULD
INDICATE A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATES THE MOST SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL
COUNTIES... ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. OBVIOUSLY TOO SOON TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS AT THIS POINT... BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT OUR CURRENT RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY
SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WINDS DOWN BY FRIDAY... AND AT THIS POINT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED MONDAY.
WITH A SHORT WAVE GOING THROUGH AND CAA LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WITH A NW FLOW KRME
SHOULD REMAIN VFR BEING TOO FAR EAST...WHILE KAVP WILL BE MOSTLY
VFR BEING TOO FAR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. REST OF SITES MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR 12 TO 15Z MONDAY. BECOMING SCATTERED AVP
AND RME IN THE MORNING THEN REST IN THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL BE NW AT AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.. AND NW AT 7 TO 10 KTS
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT AND TUE...VFR.
WED TO THU NGT...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
FRI...MVFR IN CENTRAL NY WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY YIELD TO HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT THEN END SUNDAY AS MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AND MOIST AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. ON THE BACK OF THIS TROF...THERE WILL BE LIMITED
LIFT...WITH LAKE INFLUENCES AND UPSLOPING THE MAIN FACTORS TO CONSIDER.
SINCE COLD AIR IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...LAKE INDUCED CAPES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MODEST...GENERALLY 200 TO 300 J/KG. THE RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED AND/OR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. ROUGHLY SPEAKING A
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES SEEMS TO BE THE RAIN TO SNOW
CUT-OFF. THIS LIMITS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
ELSEWHERE MAINLY RAIN. CONSISTENT WITH SPOTTER REPORTS...MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING AN ACCUMULATION WERE ABOVE 1700 FEET...WITH ANY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RAP WARM THE 700-850MB
LAYER...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES BENEATH THIS LAYER -6C TO -8C.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO FALL AS A LIGHT SLEET OR DRIZZLE.
FORTUNATELY...THE SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE PROBLEM THIS POSES...IS THAT IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS FAR SHY OF ANY HEADLINES...BUT
IT WARRANT MONITORING OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR WILL HANG IN A BIT
LONGER TO THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS EITHER RAIN OR
SNOW.
IN GENERAL...FEEL MOS NUMBERS ARE TOO COLD FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKES NORTH OF
I-90 AND WEST OF I-81 LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
SAID...ANY LOCALIZED CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST.
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO MAKE A
MEANINGFUL PUSH INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS...A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF
SUN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THESE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT LONG.
HOWEVER...THE DRYING AIR SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS A DRY AIR MASS GAINS
CONTROL INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...COURTESY OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR LAKE RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN WEAK NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH OVERALL DRY AMBIENT AIR AND RELATIVELY LOW LAKE
DELTA T/S WOULD SUGGEST ONLY AN INCREASE IN LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ENSURING A FAIR...ALBEIT CHILLY DAYS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONAL
FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS APART FROM SOME DIURNAL
STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6C WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES LOOK A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NO
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A
DEEP NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM WILL EVOLVE IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. 12Z GFS
FASTER IN MOVING THE COASTAL STORM NORTHWARD THAN THE ECMWF. THE
ECWMF REMAINS FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED LEFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED MODEL
DIFFERENCES...STILL FEEL THAT WESTERN NEW YORK WILL HAVE A LIMITED
PRECIPITATION OR WIND THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COUNTRY COULD STILL HAVE SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCUMULATING
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS AND A WIND POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM STILL
BEARS WATCHING FOR THAT PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT...A BURGEONING PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW COMBINED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL PROMOTE QUICKLY BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS STARTED THE 18Z TAF CYCLE WITH MVFR CIGS JUST BELOW
3000 FEET...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
REMAINING MVFR FOR THE DURATION. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES.
TONIGHT...EXPECT A LOWERING OF CIGS WITH DIURNAL LOWERING OF THE
INVERSION...AND A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS. LOWEST CIGS WILL BE AT
JHW...WHERE A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL FINALLY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AS WELL...WITH MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ON LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS MAINTAINING SOME 5 FOOT WAVES ON ITS SOUTH SHORES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED.
AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...AND
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OUR WRITTEN OCTOBER CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE CLM PRODUCT ON OUR WEBPAGE UNDER LOCAL
CLIMATE. SOME HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE:
FOR BUFFALO WE HAD THE 2ND MOST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DAYS IN
OCTOBER`S RECORDED HISTORY (SINCE 1871) WITH 22 OF THE 31 DAYS
MEASURING PRECIPITATION. THE ALL-TIME RECORD WAS SET BACK IN 1890
WITH 25 DAYS. FOR A 6TH STRAIGHT MONTH WE HAD A MONTH FINISH WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH BUFFALO`S 52.2F SETTING THE MONTH
1.4F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR ROCHESTER WE HAD A TIE FOR 6TH GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH 18 DAYS. THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER IS 21 DAYS WHICH WAS SET BACK IN THE YEAR 1988. LIKE BUFFALO
ROCHESTER ALSO HAS HAD 6 STRAIGHT MONTHS FINISH WITH ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH. THE 52.8F DEGREES WAS 2.2F ABOVE THE NORM.
OVER AN 8 DAY PERIOD...OCTOBER 26TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 2ND...BUFFALO
HAS RECEIVED AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THESE 8
CONSECUTIVE DAYS TIES A RECORD FOR GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THE LAST
OCCURRENCE WAS IN JANUARY 1999.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPS NOW THAT THERE IS SOME SNOW COVER OUT THERE. FOG COULD ALSO
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. PREFER A MODEL BLEND TODAY.
TONIGHT...LAST PIECE OF VORTICITY APPEARS TO BE SPINNING JUST TO
THE SW OF KFAR RIGHT NOW WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. HAS YET TO REACH TO KFAR AND MOORHEAD HAS ONLY PICKED UP
A FEW SPITS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MUCH WILL REACH KFAR
AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TRYING
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST BUT WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING FLURRIES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOG. THERE HAS BEEN AN
AREA OF FOG THAT HAS NOT GONE AWAY TODAY UP ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN ND. WILL KEEP THIS AREA FOGGY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY EXPAND
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT MAY
BECOME BUT TEMP/DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE OVER MOST OF EASTERN ND NOW
AND WINDS STAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SUN-TUE...NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY
MORNING THEN EXPANDS TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
MODELS TODAY LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF
PCPN. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE FURTHEST EAST SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST
WEIGHT TO THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW. THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD SINK
SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. PCPN
TYPE FOR THIS ROUND STILL IS TRICKY. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOW AROUND THE KDVL REGION SO PCPN SHOULD BE
SNOW THERE. WILL KEEP THE MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR OTHER AREAS. SO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COME OUT TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE KDVL
REGION TO JUST A DUSTING FOR THE REST OF EASTERN ND. LATEST HPC
SNOWFALL GRAPHICS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL. SHOULD GET A
QUICK BREAK MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT PCPN SHOT COMES IN MON
AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO TUE. THIS TIME MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS
TO GET SOMETHING BUT MAINLY THE NORTH/NE FA. AGAIN PCPN TYPE A
TOUGH CALL BUT FOR MOST OF THE EVENT TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST LIQUID PCPN. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE TIMES MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...12Z MODELS ALL INDICATE THE
SAME LARGE SCALE PATTERN. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING...TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
THEN...EACH MODEL INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEST OF THE GFS. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES AND P-TYPE. ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE MORE ACCURATE IN THESE SITUATIONS...WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DAY 6/7
EVENT. SINCE EACH MODEL INDICATES A DIFFERENT P-TYPE...WILL GO WITH
RAIN/SNOW MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION...THE REGION IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST OF
IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
KDVL SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE VALLEY SITES WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK
DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 12Z SUNDAY. KTVF AND KBJI SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT (ALTHOUGH 18Z RAP INDICATES LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
GODON/TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000PM UPDATE...
APPEARS PREV FCST THINKING STILL HOLDS TRUE. CONCERNS STILL EXIST
FOR SOME PATCHY -FRDZ OVERNIGHT IN N MTNS AND WILL KEEP SOME
WORDING IN WX GRIDS.
730PM UPDATE...
SOLID DECK OF 4 TO 5 THSD FOOT CLDS INVADING FROM NW...AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV THIS EVE. USED LATEST RUC RH FIELDS
ARND 1KM AGL AS A BASE FOR SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. TRICK IS SW EXTENT
OF THIS CLD SHIELD. THINK MUCH OF TRI STATE AREA WILL STAY VOID OF
THIS WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WILL ORIENT A NW TO SE AXIS
FROM UNI TO CRW TO N OF BKW...AND POINTS N...TO PAINT IN MOST
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER TONIGHT. NEUTRAL TMP ADVECTION NOTED AT H85
TONIGHT ALONG THIS AXIS SO FEEL GOOD ABOUT GOING OVC ACROSS N WV.
SOME LIFT BENEATH H8 ON UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS N MTNS MAY SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW -SHSN. HOWEVER...WITH STOUT SUBSIDENCE ABV -10C...AM
CONCERNED FOR SOME PATCHY -FR DZ. WILL CONT MENTION IN WX GRIDS
ATTM.
PEAKED OUT INTO TOMORROW TO PUSH BACK POPS ACROSS NE KY/S WV UNTIL
LATE AFTN BASED ON LATEST MDL RUNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER 500MB LOW PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. GOOD FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. DESPITE THIS...WILL
RAMP UP POPS AGAIN TO LOW/MID CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY WEBSTER COUNTY
AND POINTS NORTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND TRAPPED
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DO HAVE A CONCERN HOWEVER WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST IN THOSE AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL DRY AT
-10C WITH GOOD SATURATION ONLY EXTENDING TO ABOUT -7C TO -8C AND
SFC TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING. TOUGH CALL ON THIS REGARDING PRECIP
TYPE HOWEVER AS OFTENTIMES IT SEEMS SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA WOULD
INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE YET SNOW IS STILL THE RESULT. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE TWO TO FIVE HUNDREDTHS ROUGHLY. WILL LEAVE ANY
ICE ACCUM OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK WITH SUBSEQUENT DATA.
PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. HEIGHTS INITIALLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES AWAY FROM AREA BUT ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY ESSENTIALLY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NW
DURING THE MORNING TO ZONAL BY END OF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD FROM SFC LOW OVER WEST/CENTRAL TENN TO AROUND THE
NC/VA BORDER BY LATE AFT SATURDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
NOTED ON 300K-305K SFCS WELL ABOVE AGL AND THE SOUNDING IS VERY
WEAKLY CONVECTIVE. BUT AS PREV FCST NOTED...MUCH OF THE FORCING IS
FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE AND FLOW AT H85 AND H7 ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL
TO WARM FRONT...SO NOT REALLY AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. ELECTED TO
SLOW DOWN POPS JUST A TAD BUT PREV FCST STILL HAD A GENERAL GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIP MOVING INTO THE SW ZONES BY END OF PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG
IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
LIGHT GIVEN VERY ACUTE ANGLE ON PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 295 AND
300 K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT GIVEN THERMAL
FIELDS. EVEN WHERE NEAR 0C AT H85...THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO GET
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS LOWLANDS. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SAT NT BUT HAVE LOW
CHANCE THERE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM.
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUN BUT UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND. THIS FEATURE EXITS FIRST THING MON
MORNING...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE FOR A NICE START TO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
WITH PRECIPITATION HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT...LOWS IN THE 20S TO
AROUND FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S WHERE THE HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
PACK IS...THE SLOW MELT CONTINUES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND CREEK ISSUES WHERE STORM DEBRIS CREATES
BLOCKAGES. IT LOOKS LIKE SWE VALUES IN THE SNOW PACK ARE DOWN TO
THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ADJMET ON TEMPERATURES EARLY ON AND THEN
BIAS CORRECTED CONSALL - OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES INVOLVED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS PERIOD.
THIS WOULD HAVE A STORM SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY
GRAZING THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. A WARM FRONT WOULD THEN PUSH
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
SHIELD OF STRATUS CLOUDS...VFR CEILINGS LOWLANDS AND MVFR CIGS
MOUNTAINS...WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z NORTH OF A CMH-CRW-BKW LINE.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR.
AFTER 12Z...STRATUS ERODES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BECOMING
VFR BY 18Z ALL LOCATIONS. MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
18Z AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHWEST AFTER 21Z...BUT STILL VFR.
AFTER 00Z...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SOUTH...AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS PRECIP SHOULD EXIT MOST AREAS
AROUND 06Z. SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. IN ANY
CASE...VFR WILL PREVAIL...POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWER.
A WEAK SYS WILL PASS MAINLY TO S THRU TN VALLEY LATE SAT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS
S WV/SW VA TOWARD THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG HEIGHTS AND PRECIP CONDITIONS
AT EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 11/03/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1225 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION....../ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT/
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY MOST PLACES. A
LITTLE MORE SUN MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST PLACES
SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER IN
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN OVC030 TO
OVC050 CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CEILINGS NEAR OVC040 WILL BECOME SCT-BKN070
BY 00Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW AFTER 03Z
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
905 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION....../ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT/
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY MOST PLACES. A
LITTLE MORE SUN MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST PLACES
SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER IN
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE MVFR RANGE CEILINGS ALSO MORE
LIKELY. THIS INCLUDES KHON TAF LOCATION WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE LOWEST OF CLOUDS START TO BREAK UP A
BIT AND SHIFT EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT OF
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN IF THEY DO EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS TO DROP BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MN/LOCATIONS
NORTHEAST OF KBKX-KSPW LINE AFTER 04/00Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KFSD AND WILL KEEP TAF VFR FOR NOW.
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS 14Z-19Z TIME FRAME TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
640 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE MVFR RANGE CEILINGS ALSO MORE
LIKELY. THIS INCLUDES KHON TAF LOCATION WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE LOWEST OF CLOUDS START TO BREAK UP A
BIT AND SHIFT EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT OF
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN IF THEY DO EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS TO DROP BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MN/LOCATIONS
NORTHEAST OF KBKX-KSPW LINE AFTER 04/00Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KFSD AND WILL KEEP TAF VFR FOR NOW.
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS 14Z-19Z TIME FRAME TODAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ATY 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS/
ROTTEN STRATUS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRATUS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT IN THE NORTH...AND MAY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
TEMPORARILY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AT THE KHON
TERMINAL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE DURING THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW...THEN TAKE ON A NORTHEAST FLAVOR
SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1128 AM PDT Sat Nov 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist westerly flow will result in periods of rain mainly in the
mountains and portions of Eastern Washington through the middle
of next week. The Columbia Basin will stay generally dry. Much
cooler and unsettled weather will likely arrive by the end of the
week. Temperatures will likely be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Precipitation chances have been increased for the
remainder of today across Northeast Washington and North Idaho.
None of the models including the HRRR are handling the band of
showers over Eastern Washington and North Idaho well this morning.
This area of precipitation has been associated with a pocket of
mid level instability in the atmosphere as noted by 700-500
theta-e lapse rates near 0 C/KM. As the day progresses models show
an increasingly stable environment but with an increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. Water vapor satellite shows a very moist zonal flow aimed
at Washington and North Idaho so wet conditions will continue into
the afternoon. Meanwhile downslope flow off the Cascades will
shadow out the Wenatchee and Omak areas with most of the rain
confined to near the Cascade crest. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A moist zonal flow will keep areas of -RA over Northeast
Washington and North Idaho through 18z Sunday. Meanwhile a very
moist boundary layer will result in stratus over most of the area.
All models are not handling the current situation well so overall
low confidence regarding CIGS over the next 24 hours. But in
general MVFR and IFR conditions will be common through the next 24
hours at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE with gradually lowering CIGS expected as
the boundary layer continues to moisten. Very low confidence for
KEAT/KMWH TAFS through tonight as a continued moist boundary layer
could allow fog or stratus to form or expand in coverage...especially
tonight. However with an abundance of mid level clouds reducing
radiational cooling potential tonight kept prevailing conditions
VFR. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 44 56 45 60 43 / 100 20 20 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 50 43 56 44 60 42 / 100 30 20 10 10 10
Pullman 57 45 57 46 61 44 / 50 10 20 10 10 10
Lewiston 60 47 61 48 66 48 / 10 0 20 0 10 0
Colville 51 43 57 42 60 40 / 70 30 40 20 10 10
Sandpoint 48 44 54 41 58 40 / 100 70 50 20 20 10
Kellogg 47 42 50 43 56 41 / 80 50 30 20 30 10
Moses Lake 55 45 61 45 62 42 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 48 61 46 61 43 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Omak 53 44 59 43 60 40 / 20 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1049 PM PDT Fri Nov 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A drying and warming trend will slowly return to much of the
Columbia Basin courtesy of a strengthening ridge of high pressure.
Weak systems brushing the ridge will bring some light rain at
times to the Cascades and mountains near the Canadian border.
Much cooler and unsettled weather will likely arrive by the end of
the week. Temperatures will likely be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: forecast update sent to increase PoPs and coverage from
the west through the rest of the night. Regional radar trends show
a modest band of precipitation from northwest Washington to north-
central Oregon. Some of the heavier precipitation has been found
west of Yakima, at least in terms of the reflectivity signal.
Latest HRRR runs and radar extrapolation brings this precipitation
into the western CWA between 03-06Z (8 PM to 11 PM) and eastward
through the remainder of the night.
The quandary: how well will it hold together as it moves off the
higher terrain? I expect it will weaken some, limiting how much
actually is capable of being measured/reaching the ground. However
the radar returns warrant at least adding scattered to isolated
showers across the Basin this evening, expanding through Spokane
area and Palouse late tonight into the overnight in isolated
fashion.
I added some fog near the Cascades and the Basin Saturday morning,
where some cloud breaks are possible late in the overnight. With
incoming mid and high clouds determining coverage and intensity
and duration of any fog will be difficult. As such I left it as
only patchy fog. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper wave moves across the region, with a threat
of isolated showers in the vcnty of TAF sites, with the threat
moving primarily to the eastern TAFs during the day Saturday.
Tonight a thickening and lowering of clouds is expected. VFR and
occasional MVFR conditions are expected. Toward morning, the light
east to southeast winds will bring a threat of some IFR stratus
near KGEG and again near KMWH and KEAT, along with some patchy
fog. Confidence remains low, due to the passing mid and high
clouds that may inhibit such development. Some drier air coming in
above the surface near sunrise near KEAT/KMWH will allow a better
threat of said IFR stratus to develop. Conditions improve through
the late morning and afternoon, with more mid and high clouds
streaming in ahead of the next weak wave. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 55 44 56 45 59 / 20 20 20 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 41 54 43 56 44 58 / 20 30 30 20 10 10
Pullman 44 58 45 57 46 62 / 20 20 10 20 10 0
Lewiston 44 60 47 61 48 64 / 20 10 10 20 0 0
Colville 44 54 43 57 43 61 / 30 40 40 40 20 20
Sandpoint 42 52 44 54 41 58 / 20 50 60 50 20 20
Kellogg 38 47 42 50 43 55 / 20 30 30 30 10 20
Moses Lake 42 58 45 61 45 60 / 50 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 44 55 48 61 46 59 / 50 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 45 55 44 59 43 59 / 50 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
545 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WHAT TYPE THEY WILL BE AS
THEY REACH THE GROUND...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA PER SATELLITE AND 03.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. A LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST OUT OF THIS LOW AND HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS IOWA ON INTO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST AS WELL AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT COMING DOWN WITH THIS CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STRONG 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND QG FORCING DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 3-12Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS IN THE
LOW LEVELS WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FRONTOGENESIS OR ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO HELP DEEPEN THE LIFT AND SATURATION. CROSS SECTIONS/TIME
HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF DECENT MID LEVEL OMEGA COMING
THROUGH WITH THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 03.12Z GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATING BETWEEN
850-400MB CENTERED AROUND 6-9Z. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER
MAX TEMPERATURES BEING UP AROUND 3-4C PER 03.12Z NAM/GFS AND
03.18Z RAP SOUNDINGS THOUGH THEY COOL AS THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS
WITH ABOUT A 1KFT NEAR SURFACE LAYER THAT IS UP TO 1C. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN THOUGH
WITH THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND FREEZING THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW THAT MIXES IN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR AROUND
34-38 AND WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES...ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD JUST BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND WILL PROVIDE
FOR A DRY YET COOL SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE STAYING TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF IT
GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 03.12Z
NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THE FORCING/PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THAT ROUTE
THAN WITH THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COME IN ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN FROM
CANADA ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING
DEEP ENOUGH OF FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH IT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 03.12Z GFS/NAM THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL
RAIN...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MIX FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
KICKS IN ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE GOES EAST A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE 03.12Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS
BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER WEST. HAVE KEPT A
BLEND OF THE FORECASTS GOING...BUT IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT IT WILL
BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WITH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
THE GFS HAS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
545 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
MVFR CIGS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND RH FORECASTS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE
RAP13/NAM12. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS NORTHERN ILL BY 18Z SUN.
SATURATION INCREASES IN THE VERTICAL AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WITH SOUNDINGS FAVORING SUB 3 KFT CIGS AFTER 06Z AT
KRST...AND TOWARD 12Z FOR KLSE. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD PUSH CIG
HEIGHTS UP DURING THE DAY ON SUN. THAT SAID...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.
SATURATION IS DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE...AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS - OR CLOSE TO IT - LOOKS LIKELY FOR
MONDAY.
AS FOR PCPN...SOME QG CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND HINTS OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LATEST 88-D IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE
SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER SD/ND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM12
SLIDES LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA OVERNIGHT...AS DOES
THE LATEST HRRR. TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING ANY PCPN CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF
KLSE...BUT KRST COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. WILL ADD A
MENTION INTO THE TAF FORECAST...BUT DON/T EXPECT AN IMPACT TO VSBYS
OR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WHAT TYPE THEY WILL BE AS
THEY REACH THE GROUND...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA PER SATELLITE AND 03.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. A LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST OUT OF THIS LOW AND HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS IOWA ON INTO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST AS WELL AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT COMING DOWN WITH THIS CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STRONG 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND QG FORCING DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 3-12Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS IN THE
LOW LEVELS WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FRONTOGENESIS OR ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO HELP DEEPEN THE LIFT AND SATURATION. CROSS SECTIONS/TIME
HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF DECENT MID LEVEL OMEGA COMING
THROUGH WITH THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 03.12Z GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATING BETWEEN
850-400MB CENTERED AROUND 6-9Z. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER
MAX TEMPERATURES BEING UP AROUND 3-4C PER 03.12Z NAM/GFS AND
03.18Z RAP SOUNDINGS THOUGH THEY COOL AS THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS
WITH ABOUT A 1KFT NEAR SURFACE LAYER THAT IS UP TO 1C. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN THOUGH
WITH THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND FREEZING THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW THAT MIXES IN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR AROUND
34-38 AND WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES...ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD JUST BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND WILL PROVIDE
FOR A DRY YET COOL SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE STAYING TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF IT
GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 03.12Z
NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THE FORCING/PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THAT ROUTE
THAN WITH THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COME IN ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN FROM
CANADA ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING
DEEP ENOUGH OF FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH IT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 03.12Z GFS/NAM THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL
RAIN...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MIX FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
KICKS IN ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE GOES EAST A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE 03.12Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS
BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER WEST. HAVE KEPT A
BLEND OF THE FORECASTS GOING...BUT IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT IT WILL
BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WITH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
THE GFS HAS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1233 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING BKN TO OVC SKIES TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO
11 KFT...THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 3 TO 4 KFT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACTIVITY AT THE TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
STRONGER FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SO THINKING
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD MOST LIKELY FALL AS SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. HAVE LOWERED CLOUD
BASES TO 3500 FT AT KLSE STARTING AT 10Z TONIGHT...AND LOWERED
CLOUD BASES AT KRST TO 3000 FT STARTING AT 09Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 223 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE
HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 750 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH MIXED CAPE VALUES CONSIDERABLY LOWER. BAND OF PRE-
FRONTAL -RA CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA BUT NO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF NOTE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THUS
FAR. INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...FEEL BY THE TIME STRONG OR
SEVERE COULD BE REALIZED...BEST LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SCALE BACK THE HWO AND ONGOING
GRAPHICAST ONCE DEVELOPING LINE SHIFTS EAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY SHORT TERM DAY WITH FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS AS HIGH CENTERED OVER CANADA HAS ENOUGH WEAK RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE OUR AREA TO PRODUCE A POP FREE DAY. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL DURING THE DAY HAS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKES A RAPID RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE AS THEIR ARRIVAL PRIOR TO
SUNSET WILL RESULT IN MINS TUESDAY MORNING NOT REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL AS PRECIP BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA IN EARNEST JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
ROTATES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. NAM12 IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DYNAMICALLY COOLING THE COLUMN...TAKING THE 850MB
TEMP FROM +2C TO -1C IN A MATTER OF TWO HOURS. NOT COMPLETELY OUR
OF THE QUESTION WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO SEE THIS TYPE OF
COOLING ALOFT...BUT JUST CANNOT SEEM TO GET SURFACE TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS IS TRUE
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP FORECAST ALL LIQUID THIS RUN
BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT CYCLES.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEST SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE LOW...WILL NEED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 223 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AND FOR THE MOST PART AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF. CORRESPONDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ANCHORING ITSELF IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY BUT
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. HAVE MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
BIG FORECAST STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST DEEPENING OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT OF THE PROJECTED TRACK...EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANGES TO
INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN GA LATE ON MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL...CUTTING
OFF THE AREA FROM MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE
NORTHERN MOISTURE PROGRESSION. LITTLE OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH
DID KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR SE CWA TUESDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EMERGES OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DRY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z WHEN MORE HIGH CLOUDS...10 THSD FT
TO 25 THSD FT SCT TO BKN...START MOVING IN AHEAD OF SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS...3 THSD FT TO 4 THSD FT AFTER 04Z AS LIGHT
SHRA MOVE IN. VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS
NORTHWEST....BECOMING NORTHERLY BY 15Z...AND SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 23Z. WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 44 62 42 / 30 5 0 50
ATLANTA 73 43 64 46 / 30 0 0 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 37 57 40 / 20 0 0 50
CARTERSVILLE 68 38 63 41 / 20 0 0 60
COLUMBUS 79 44 69 48 / 30 20 0 80
GAINESVILLE 69 45 60 44 / 20 0 0 50
MACON 83 43 68 44 / 30 30 0 80
ROME 67 36 64 40 / 20 0 0 60
PEACHTREE CITY 73 37 65 40 / 40 0 0 70
VIDALIA 86 54 68 49 / 30 40 0 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KFNB WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WHILE AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RADAR HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND INVERTED
TROF ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A WALL OF DRY AIR WHICH HAS
STOPPED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 850-700MB
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN COMBINATION WITH OVERALL FORCING
FROM THE WRF AND RAP DEPICT QUITE WELL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING DZ/RA ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S COMMON.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. BY LATE TONIGHT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COLLAPSE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY ENTER BUCHANAN
COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA STAYS DRY. 08
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUE-TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT DYNAMICS IN FORM OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100-120+ KT H3 JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO OVERCOME AND GENERATE BAND(S) OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
TUE AM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS. BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
W/SW SECTIONS TUE AFTN IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S... WITH 40S LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH COOLEST READINGS
NORTHEAST CWA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO PRODUCE CLASSIC
NOR`EASTER... WITH STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNFORTUNATELY POUNDING AREAS RECOVERING FROM HURRICANE SANDY WITH
MORE HEAVY PCPN AND STRONG WINDS WED-THU.
WED-WED NGT... INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PROVIDE DRY WX WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO L50S... AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
THU-FRI... SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING. ALOFT... UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
ON STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPORT MODERATING
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SAT-SUN... PATTERN SET TO UNDERGO CHANGE LEADING TO UNSETTLED/WET
REGIME FOR THE AREA. STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH MODELS HANDLING
OF ENERGY AS IT EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS... WITH MAIN IMPACTS
TO TIMING OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. GENERAL CONSENSUS ATTM IS TO
MOVE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN OCCURRING MAINLY POST FRONTAL. LOCATION OF JET DOES
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT STORMS ATTM... BUT
BEING LATE DAY 6-7 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH
MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES. COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF WAVE DEVELOPS ON
FRONT AS SHOWN BY 00Z GFS. THIS IS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY TO BE
RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPS LOOK TO COME CRASHING BACK
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCCLURE
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA
TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN IOWA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KCID AND KBRL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN.
KMLI LESS AT RISK...BUT MAY ALSO GET THESE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KDBQ IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED AT ALL. DRY AIR TO SWEEP BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY TO VFR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. LE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/MCCLURE/LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
INHERITED FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
EVENING. LGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY ACROSS OUR IL COUNTIES. STILL WAITING ON THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SSE OUT OF
ERN NEBRASKA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SFC LOW OVER WRN IA. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIVES
THRU WRN MO OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ECHOS ACROSS
IA AND NW MO ARE VERY LIGHT ATTM BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE
AS THE SHORT WAVE GETS CLOSER. MONDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAMP DAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM N-S. NOT MUCH RISE ON TEMPS EXPECTED
EITHER WITH AN ERLY WIND AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
MILLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(TONIGHT)
POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKEWISE DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND LINK UP WITH A BROAD/RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER KANSAS. THE COMBINED SURFACE TROF WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING A SWATH OF RAIN
OUT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE HRRR IS ESPECIALLY FAST
BRINGING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MO AS EARLY AS 03Z...AND SPREADING TO
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z. AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE 3-6HRS SLOWER...BUT WILL
BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR A FASTER ONSET OF RAIN.
CARNEY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALIVE AND WELL ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THIS LONGWAVE TROF AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE THE NATIONS WEATHER STORY...AS THE NOR`EASTER BRINGS
STRONG WIND...RAIN...AND EVEN SOME WINTER WEATHER TO AREAS STILL
REELING FROM SANDY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MISSOURI. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. HAVE WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE LOWEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. RAIN SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A FINAL SHORTWAVE...THE CABOOSE...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND AN EASTERN TRACK TO THE DISTURBANCE KEEPS POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CONFINED TO ILLINOIS COUNTIES. SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION BY WEEKS END AS A
MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM CARVES A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH HELPS AMPLIFY A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
END RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS LARGE UPPER TROF WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL DROP S-SEWD
THROUGH WRN MO LATE TGT AND MON MRNG. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD SEWD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVNG WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO UIN. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN LATE TGT WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY
LATE TGT IN UIN AND COU AND IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON
MRNG. THE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR CATAGORY ON MON.
RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD SEWD INTO UIN AND COU LATE TGT AND INTO THE
ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY MON MRNG WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 4-5SM. A
E-SELY SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN E-NELY DIRECTION MON AFTN
AND EVNG AS THE WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS SW OF THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL
EVENTUALLY PROGRESS S-SE OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY MON EVNG
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MON EVNG. THE SFC WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT MON EVNG.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THE CLOUD CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY BY
EARLY MON MRNG AS LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. PREFER THE LOWER
CIG HEIGHTS OF THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE MORE OPTIMISTIC CIG
HEIGHTS OF THE GFS MOS. RAIN WILL DROP VSBYS TO 4-5SM ON MON. THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SE OF STL BY EARLY MON EVNG ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT ELY SFC
WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO A SELY DIRECTION LATE TGT...AND INCREASE
TO 8-9 KTS MON MRNG. THE SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO AN ELY
DIRECTION BY EARLY MON EVNG AS IT BECOMES LIGHT AGAIN.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1059 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
10Z...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 10Z-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED 14Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900FT
AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TURBULENT MIXING FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE
FORMATION...AND WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT 6SM 10-14Z AS A
RESULT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 16KTS AND GUSTING TO
AROUND 22KTS 14Z ONWARD. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF LLWS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASE TO NEAR 35KTS AND THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS NEAR 5KTS.
WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING
AS IT APPEARS WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA...BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR UNTIL THE SURFACE WIND INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
UPDATE...EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS...ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO NORTH TEXAS. A NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS
MATERIALIZED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS A RESULT. A BAND OF STRATUS
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CANADA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS COVERS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO PERSIST OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. KUEX AND KOAX INDICATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA.
LATEST HRRR...NAM AND RAP DATA ALL SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD OUR AREA
NOW...AND NOTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
UPSTREAM...SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THESE LATEST DATA.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...AND ONLY LEFT ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK
RETURNS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED BY KUEX. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS A TOUCH TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL SUGGEST THE STRATUS
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER OUR EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH THE
STRATUS REMAINING FARTHER NORTHEAST...OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST LOWS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
MAY BE A BIT WARM GIVEN THE STRATUS...BUT WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S OUT THAT WAY...FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S SHOULD VERIFY FAIRLY WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOCUSED ON
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY FALL FROM THEM TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT GRADUALLY
MOISTENS THE AIR BELOW IT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
THAT SAID...THE DROPLETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SMALL...SO ONLY
EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN AREA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER/MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...SO WINDS WILL ALSO. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS EXPECTING GRADUAL
CLEARING AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS
A MATTER OF FACT...BETWEEN THE STRONG WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
THE CHANGE WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE BY ANYONE VENTURING
OUTSIDE.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PEGGED THESE TRENDS WELL...SO AM NOT REQUIRED
TO MAKE MANY CHANGES AT ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES FM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BACKS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BEHIND
BOUNDARY LENDING TOWARD A W/E THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGHS IN THE
AFTN...BUT STILL SEASONAL OR ABOVE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXPANDS ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER LOW/LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND WITH GRADUAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THRU FRIDAY NIGHT OR
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PCPN ENTERING OUR REGION
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND UPPER DYNAMICS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO AT LEAST
WARRANT SOME CHC FOR NON LIQUID PCPN...WITH A TRANSITION FM R/S
NW/SE. BY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH MARKEDLY COLDER AIR
SETTLING IN WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1027 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS...ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO NORTH TEXAS. A NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS
MATERIALIZED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS A RESULT. A BAND OF STRATUS
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CANADA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS COVERS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO PERSIST OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. KUEX AND KOAX INDICATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA.
LATEST HRRR...NAM AND RAP DATA ALL SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD OUR AREA
NOW...AND NOTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
UPSTREAM...SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THESE LATEST DATA.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...AND ONLY LEFT ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK
RETURNS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED BY KUEX. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS A TOUCH TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL SUGGEST THE STRATUS
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER OUR EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH THE
STRATUS REMAINING FARTHER NORTHEAST...OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST LOWS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
MAY BE A BIT WARM GIVEN THE STRATUS...BUT WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S OUT THAT WAY...FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S SHOULD VERIFY FAIRLY WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
07Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS 07-14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS 14Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AS LOW
AS 900FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AT
KGRI...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEING
OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
THAT BEING SAID...SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TURBULENT MIXING FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE
FORMATION...AND WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT 6SM 10-14Z AS A RESULT.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 16KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND
22KTS 14Z ONWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOCUSED ON
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY FALL FROM THEM TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT GRADUALLY
MOISTENS THE AIR BELOW IT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
THAT SAID...THE DROPLETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SMALL...SO ONLY
EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN AREA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER/MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...SO WINDS WILL ALSO. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS EXPECTING GRADUAL
CLEARING AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS
A MATTER OF FACT...BETWEEN THE STRONG WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
.THE CHANGE WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE BY ANYONE VENTURING
OUTSIDE.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PEGGED THESE TRENDS WELL...SO AM NOT REQUIRED
TO MAKE MANY CHANGES AT ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES FM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BACKS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BEHIND
BOUNDARY LENDING TOWARD A W/E THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGHS IN THE
AFTN...BUT STILL SEASONAL OR ABOVE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXPANDS ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER LOW/LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND WITH GRADUAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THRU FRIDAY NIGHT OR
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PCPN ENTERING OUR REGION
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND UPPER DYNAMICS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO AT LEAST
WARRANT SOME CHC FOR NON LIQUID PCPN...WITH A TRANSITION FM R/S
NW/SE. BY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH MARKEDLY COLDER AIR
SETTLING IN WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
327 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...AND SPRINKLES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO BRING DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME VERY LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS EVE. WILL KEEP
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN OVRNGT. NAM DOES SHOW A CPL MORE WEAK
WVS SLIDING THRU LATE TNGT AND EARLY MON...BUT THE HRRR KEEPS ANY
LGT PCPN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OVER WRN NY. WITH THE MORE NLY
FLOW...XPCT CHANCE FOR ANY LGT LE TO BE MORE PSBL OVER THE WRN
ZONES AS THE NGT WEARS ON. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE CWA LATE
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME EARLY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP...WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN OUR ERN ZNS TNT.
THE CHARACTER OF THE CLOUD COVER IS TAKING ON A MORE OPEN CELLULAR
APPEARANCE EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR ATTM...AND FAIRLY SIG HOLES
HAVE OPENED UP IN THE EARLIER EXPANSIVE SC SHIELD UP OVER SRN QUE.
SINCE OUR LOW-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE INTO THE N AND
EVEN NNE OVERNIGHT...WE THINK THIS TYPE OF ENVIR WILL SETTLE ACRS
OUR ERN ZNS...WITH AT LEAST PTL CLEARING ANTICIPATED AFTER 00-03Z.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER W THROUGH THE FINGER LKS RGN...WHERE A LOW-LVL MOIST
FEED WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED S OF LK ONT...CLDS SHOULD BE MORE
STUBBORN...WITH A FEW FLRYS EVEN ANTICIPATED...AS BLYR CAA IS
RENEWED FOR A BRIEF PD OVERNIGHT.
OUR NE PA ZNS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURG THE NGT...EXCPT FOR
PERHAPS BRADFORD/WRN SUSQ CNTYS...WHERE THE ABV MENTIONED CLOUDS
FROM LK ONT COULD MOVE IN FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM UPDATE... QUIET WX FORESEEN THIS PD...WITH SFC RIDGING OUR
DOMINANT FEATURE.
AM CLDS/SCTD FLRYS MON IN OUR WRN ZNS...SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BREAK UP BY 18Z...AS THE DEPTH OF DRIER AIR FINALLY OVERWHELMS THE
MOIST BLYR ENVIR. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT MAINLY CLR SKIES MON
NGT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON TUE. MID TO HIGH-LVL CLDS MAY WELL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LTR TUE NGT...FAR IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL ADVERTISED
EAST COAST STORM SLATED TO ARRIVE IN THE LONG-TERM PD (MORE ON
THIS BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
GFS AND ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER
STORM OF THE SEASON WILL BE IMPACTING OUR REGION AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE TWO MODELS
ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN TERMS OF FCST TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER SOME DISPARITY STILL REMAINS WITH EXPECTED
THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON BOTH P-TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS. 00Z GFS HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE CURRENT VERSION SUGGESTING H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ABOUT
+2C OVERNIGHT WED. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE COOLER
SOLUTION WITH SUBZERO H85 TEMP VALUES FORECAST CWA WIDE.
CONSIDERING HOW BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
ELONGATED QPF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE/RE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH
DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TO FAVOR THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION.
THAT SAID...HAVE MAINTAINED A SNOW MENTION THROUGH 18Z THU BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RA/SN MIX BY AFTERNOON.
WINTER STORM FEATURE SHOULD QUICKLY BEGIN EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY
THU NGT WITH LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT
WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. MODELS BEGINNING TO HIT HARD THAT A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS ADVERTISE H50 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 582 DM BY EARLY
SUN. IF THIS PANS OUT AS ADVERTISED...LOW 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STORM DEVELOPING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH THE STORM WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CANADIAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE... MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LEARNING TOWARD THE ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MODELS HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER MINOR POSITIONING DIFFERENCES WILL MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. THE GFS WOULD
BASICALLY INDICATE A NON- EVENT FOR OUR AREA... THE CANADIAN WOULD
INDICATE A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATES THE MOST SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL
COUNTIES... ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. OBVIOUSLY TOO SOON TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS AT THIS POINT... BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT OUR CURRENT RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY
SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WINDS DOWN BY FRIDAY... AND AT THIS POINT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTS IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRY
AIR MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT ANY IFR CONDITIONS FROM FORMING AT BGM AND ITH.
AFTER 13Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN
5-10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS RESULTING IN NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH A
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR.
WED TO THU NGT...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
FRI...MVFR IN CENTRAL NY WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG/MSE
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...AND SPRINKLES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO BRING DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME VERY LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS EVE. WILL KEEP
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN OVRNGT. NAM DOES SHOW A CPL MORE WEAK
WVS SLIDING THRU LATE TNGT AND EARLY MON...BUT THE HRRR KEEPS ANY
LGT PCPN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OVER WRN NY. WITH THE MORE NLY
FLOW...XPCT CHANCE FOR ANY LGT LE TO BE MORE PSBL OVER THE WRN
ZONES AS THE NGT WEARS ON. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE CWA LATE
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME EARLY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP...WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN OUR ERN ZNS TNT.
THE CHARACTER OF THE CLOUD COVER IS TAKING ON A MORE OPEN CELLULAR
APPEARANCE EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR ATTM...AND FAIRLY SIG HOLES
HAVE OPENED UP IN THE EARLIER EXPANSIVE SC SHIELD UP OVER SRN QUE.
SINCE OUR LOW-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE INTO THE N AND
EVEN NNE OVERNIGHT...WE THINK THIS TYPE OF ENVIR WILL SETTLE ACRS
OUR ERN ZNS...WITH AT LEAST PTL CLEARING ANTICIPATED AFTER 00-03Z.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER W THROUGH THE FINGER LKS RGN...WHERE A LOW-LVL MOIST
FEED WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED S OF LK ONT...CLDS SHOULD BE MORE
STUBBORN...WITH A FEW FLRYS EVEN ANTICIPATED...AS BLYR CAA IS
RENEWED FOR A BRIEF PD OVERNIGHT.
OUR NE PA ZNS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURG THE NGT...EXCPT FOR
PERHAPS BRADFORD/WRN SUSQ CNTYS...WHERE THE ABV MENTIONED CLOUDS
FROM LK ONT COULD MOVE IN FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM UPDATE... QUIET WX FORESEEN THIS PD...WITH SFC RIDGING OUR
DOMINANT FEATURE.
AM CLDS/SCTD FLRYS MON IN OUR WRN ZNS...SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BREAK UP BY 18Z...AS THE DEPTH OF DRIER AIR FINALLY OVERWHELMS THE
MOIST BLYR ENVIR. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT MAINLY CLR SKIES MON
NGT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON TUE. MID TO HIGH-LVL CLDS MAY WELL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LTR TUE NGT...FAR IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL ADVERTISED
EAST COAST STORM SLATED TO ARRIVE IN THE LONG-TERM PD (MORE ON
THIS BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STORM DEVELOPING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH THE STORM WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CANADIAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE... MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LEARNING TOWARD THE ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE MODELS HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER MINOR POSITIONING DIFFERENCES WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. THE GFS WOULD
BASICALLY INDICATE A NON- EVENT FOR OUR AREA... THE CANADIAN WOULD
INDICATE A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATES THE MOST SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL
COUNTIES... ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. OBVIOUSLY TOO SOON TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS AT THIS POINT... BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS POSSIBLE. HAVE KEPT OUR CURRENT RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY
SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WINDS DOWN BY FRIDAY... AND AT THIS POINT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTS IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRY
AIR MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT ANY IFR CONDITIONS FROM FORMING AT BGM AND ITH.
AFTER 13Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN
5-10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS RESULTING IN NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH A
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR.
WED TO THU NGT...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
FRI...MVFR IN CENTRAL NY WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
343 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY THIS MORNING AS COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHILLY RAIN. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WARMING TREND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO TEMPORARILY WEDGE
ACROSS THE ILM CWA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE FROM THE FA
AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTS. POST FRONTAL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...4K TO 120K FT...WILL RULE
THE EARLY MORNING HRS THROUGH MID-MORNING. POST FRONTAL LOW TO
MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA AND AID IN THE
SCOURING OUT OF THESE CLOUDS BY MID-DAY...VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS OF SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CI/CS WILL BE RATHER THIN DURING
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OPAQUE TONIGHT AND DROPPING
FROM 250K FT TO 200K FT. RATHER POTENT S/W TROF WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S....WILL
DIVE SE TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES BY DAYBREAK TUE. MODELS
SIMILAR WITH THIS AGGRESSIVE S/W TROF MOVEMENT...AS IT BECOMES
NEUTRAL-LY TILTED BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOOK FOR THE TAPPING OF GULF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE. MAX TEMPS TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE
AND DROP TO THE MID 30S NORTH PORTIONS...TO NEAR 40 SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...40 TO 45 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE MORNING
AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL DURING TUE. FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/JETTING COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH HELP LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THE
CANADIAN...AND THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS THUS IT IS BEING DISREGARDED.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST...THOUGH IT HAS SLOWED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY.
CONVERSELY THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN A RATHER SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/12Z ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AT 12Z WED...BASICALLY EAST OF HATTERAS(GFS) OR SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE LOOKOUT(ECMWF). INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH 12Z WED LOW POSITION JUST NORTHEAST
OF HATTERAS. OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE SMALL GIVEN THE
CIRCUMSTANCES SO FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST.
PLAN TO HOLD ONTO PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WED BEFORE DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE
ON THE BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY WED AS THE STORM REALLY BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
BOTH ECMWF AND LATEST GFS HINT AT WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON WED...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED. FEATURE ARRIVES AT
THE COAST TO LATE TO TAP INTO ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND IS NOT
LIKELY TO GENERATE MUCH BESIDE A BRIEF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
CLOUD COVER...COLD ADVECTION...AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
ON TUE. ALTHOUGH RAIN ENDS WED COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS WELL BELOW CLIMO WED. COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP LOWS BELOW CLIMO...THOUGH NOT AS FAR BELOW CLIMO AS HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK TO CLIMO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-MID WEEK STORM
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRI...WITH AXIS JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH REMAINING
A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE WITH GRADIENT BEING SLOW TO RELAX.
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE PERIOD REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...GFS HAD BEEN FASTER MOVING THEM OFFSHORE AND DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW. LATEST GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS FINALLY MOVED
OFFSHORE...AND NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...
POST-FRONTAL -SHRA MAINLY VCSH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
UP TO A FEW HRS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK B4 MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR
GOOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS FOR BEING
LESS AGGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT.
FOR THE MOST PART A 3K TO 6 K FT DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INFILTRATES THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING DAYLIGHT HRS OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS...FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL
STALL WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY WEDGES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NE STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT...A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL
RESULT WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT OR 15 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE
TODAY AND HOLD AT THESE HEIGHTS THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL DOMINATE SIG. SEAS...WITH A CONTINUED UNDERLYING EASTERLY 1
FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 12 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
NORTHERN FL ON TUE TO NEAR HATTERAS WED MORNING AND OFF THE
SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING TUE GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED BUT IT IS TUE NIGHT AND WED WHEN GRADIENT
BECOMES TIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT GALES WILL BE MET BUT 15 TO 25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT...MAINLY TUE
INTO WED AS SPEEDS INCREASE BUT DIRECTION REMAINS NORTHEAST. AS
WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST WED INTO WED NIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN PUSHING HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT RELAXES AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. ON THU
FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT
BEFORE WINDS START TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND DROP TO AROUND 15 KT
THU NIGHT. 10 TO 15 KT NORTHWEST WINDS FRI DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KNOCKED DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OE THE PERIOD BY DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
301 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY THIS MORNING AS COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHILLY RAIN. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WARMING TREND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:45 PM SUNDAY...ONE LAST LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS. LOOKS
LIKE DANGER OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. RELEVANT
PORTION OF DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
MOVING OFF THE NC/SC COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN LOW 40S NORTH ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR 50 ACROSS THE VERY
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT 12Z(7AM)...BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL
RESIDE OFFSHORE AT FIRST LIGHT OF MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE MORNING
AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL DURING TUE. FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/JETTING COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH HELP LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THE
CANADIAN...AND THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS THUS IT IS BEING DISREGARDED.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST...THOUGH IT HAS SLOWED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY.
CONVERSELY THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN A RATHER SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/12Z ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AT 12Z WED...BASICALLY EAST OF HATTERAS(GFS) OR SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE LOOKOUT(ECMWF). INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH 12Z WED LOW POSITION JUST NORTHEAST
OF HATTERAS. OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE SMALL GIVEN THE
CIRCUMSTANCES SO FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST.
PLAN TO HOLD ONTO PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WED BEFORE DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE
ON THE BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY WED AS THE STORM REALLY BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
BOTH ECMWF AND LATEST GFS HINT AT WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON WED...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED. FEATURE ARRIVES AT
THE COAST TO LATE TO TAP INTO ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND IS NOT
LIKELY TO GENERATE MUCH BESIDE A BRIEF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
CLOUD COVER...COLD ADVECTION...AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
ON TUE. ALTHOUGH RAIN ENDS WED COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS WELL BELOW CLIMO WED. COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP LOWS BELOW CLIMO...THOUGH NOT AS FAR BELOW CLIMO AS HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK TO CLIMO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-MID WEEK STORM
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRI...WITH AXIS JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH REMAINING
A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE WITH GRADIENT BEING SLOW TO RELAX.
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE PERIOD REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...GFS HAD BEEN FASTER MOVING THEM OFFSHORE AND DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW. LATEST GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAS FINALLY MOVED
OFFSHORE...AND NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...
POST-FRONTAL -SHRA MAINLY VCSH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
UP TO A FEW HRS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK B4 MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR
GOOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS FOR BEING
LESS AGGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT.
FOR THE MOST PART A 3K TO 6 K FT DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INFILTRATES THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL
PREVAUIL WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING DAYLIGHT HRS OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS...FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM SUNDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED
TO THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CHANGEABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW COMPLEX MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THEN
PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE
20 KT GUSTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE LATE TONIGHT AS A
NORTH SURGE OF WIND PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER RELATIVELY MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND
HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND AROUND THE OCEAN SHOALS. NO CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE NEEDED FOR NOW...BUT THE SEA
WILL REMAIN BUMPY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WIND- SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTHERN
FL ON TUE TO NEAR HATTERAS WED MORNING AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING TUE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED
BUT IT IS TUE NIGHT AND WED WHEN GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT AS LOW
STARTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
GALES WILL BE MET BUT 15 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CERTAINLY PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT...MAINLY TUE INTO WED AS SPEEDS
INCREASE BUT DIRECTION REMAINS NORTHEAST. AS WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST
WED INTO WED NIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL BEGIN PUSHING HIGHEST
SEAS BEYOND 20 NM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT RELAXES AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. ON THU
FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT
BEFORE WINDS START TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND DROP TO AROUND 15 KT
THU NIGHT. 10 TO 15 KT NORTHWEST WINDS FRI DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KNOCKED DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OE THE PERIOD BY DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY MONDAY MORNING AS COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHILLY RAIN. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
WARMING TREND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 9:45 PM SUNDAY...ONE LAST LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS. LOOKS
LIKE DANGER OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. RELEVANT
PORTION OF DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
MOVING OFF THE NC/SC COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN LOW 40S NORTH ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR 50 ACROSS THE VERY
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT 12Z(7AM)...BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL
RESIDE OFFSHORE AT FIRST LIGHT OF MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DEEP NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS MON MORNING WILL DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ONLY REACHING CLOSER TO 60 FOR A HIGH TEMP.
AS ONE SHORTWAVE RIDES AROUND A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SHORE ON MONDAY...ANOTHER MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THE BACK END OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
PLACE LOCALLY IN NORTHEAST FLOW HEADING INTO TUES AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG COLD FRONT MEANDERING BACK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE GULF COAST AS THIS
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN AND THEN TRAVERSES EAST REACHING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUES. THE SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH FROM THE GA/FL COAST ON TUES PARALLELING THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH IN DRY AIR THROUGH
TUES MORNING. AS LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM THE WEST
TUES MORNING...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE S-SW AND
INCREASE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT THE
SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN NE. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SW THROUGH TUES MORNING BUT OVERALL
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ON BACK END OF LOW AS IT
TRAVELS UP THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST AND WILL
NOT DEEPEN APPRECIABLY UNTIL IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD HATTERAS AND
MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH WITH IT TOWARD HATTERAS. AS FOR
MID TO UPPER LEVELS DYNAMICS...BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA AND BEST JET ENERGY REMAINS
SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF TUES. WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS...NOT CONVINCED
LOCAL AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GREAT AMOUNT WITH THIS LOW. COUNTING
ON COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER TUES THROUGH WED MORNING WITH BEST CHC
OF RAIN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND PRIMARILY ALONG
THE COAST BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO FINE TUNE. ALSO WITH
POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST NOT
COMFORTABLE TRYING TO FORECAST EXACT AREAS OF LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE
AT THIS POINT AS LOW REMAINS WRAPPED TIGHT AND SMALL CHANGES COULD
MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST. SHOULD END UP BEING A LOWER END QPF
EVENT FOR INLAND WITH GREATER AMOUNTS MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE A
DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS TUES NIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S
MOST PLACES. THIS COOL START COMBINED WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL...JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES. LOW TEMPS ON
TUES NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WE DRY AND COOL ON THE BACK
END OF THE DEPARTING LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING NOR`EASTER WILL BE PULLING AWAY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE ILM CWA ON THE DEPARTING EDGE OF
THE STORM WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOW MUCH PRECIP REMAINS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACT POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST/FURTHEST WEST WHILE THE CMC/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES
REMAIN EAST. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT KEEPING SOME WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE RECENTLY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...AND KNOWING THAT THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DRY...WILL KEEP INHERITED BASICALLY
AS-IS...WITH SCHC POP EARLY WED ALONG THE NORTH/COAST...TRENDING TO
DRY BY WED EVE. AS THE NOR`EASTER MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST...W/NW
WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE THANKS TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND ADVANCING HIGH. THIS MEANS
THAT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY BY WED EVE AND THURSDAY...GUSTY WINDS
AND CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WKND...500MB RIDGE BULGES UP FROM THE
GULF COAST AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THESE WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER...WITH MAX TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE
CLIMO BY THE WKND...ALTHOUGH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL STILL
PERMIT MINS TO FALL TO THE LOW 40S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAS FINALLY MOVED
OFFSHORE...AND NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...
POST-FRONTAL -SHRA MAINLY VCSH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
UP TO A FEW HRS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK B4 MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR
GOOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS FOR BEING
LESS AGGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT.
FOR THE MOST PART A 3K TO 6 K FT DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INFILTRATES THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL
PREVAUIL WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING DAYLIGHT HRS OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS...FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM SUNDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED
TO THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CHANGEABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW COMPLEX MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THEN
PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE
20 KT GUSTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE LATE TONIGHT AS A
NORTH SURGE OF WIND PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER RELATIVELY MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND
HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND AROUND THE OCEAN SHOALS. NO CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE NEEDED FOR NOW...BUT THE SEA
WILL REMAIN BUMPY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WIND- SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN COLD
SURGE BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON MORNING. THEN
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH MON THROUGH TUES
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. THEREFORE WINDS DECREASE DOWN TO AROUND 15
KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH TUES MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN LATE TUES THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT RIDES UP THE OFF SHORE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW CENTER TO THE EAST
OF LOCAL WATERS AS IT TRACKS UP FROM THE SOUTH REACHING JUST EAST
OF LOCAL WATERS BY WED MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND
CONTINUED COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NIGHT. WNA SHOWS SEAS
REACHING UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS TUES NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT DO NOT HAVE WINDS EXCEEDING GALE THRESHOLD SO HAVE NO PLANS
TO RAISE GALE WATCH. ALTHOUGH GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...LOOKING
MORE LIKE A STRONG SCA EVENT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG W/NW WINDS WITH 3-6 FT SEAS TO START
THE PERIOD AS A DEEPENING NOR`EASTER SLOWLY PULLS AWAY UP THE COAST.
WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY WINDS SLOWLY
DECREASE...BUT REMAIN 15-20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THOUGH...HIGHEST SEAS GET PUSHED OUT OF THE COASTAL
WATERS SO WAVE AMPLITUDES FALL TO 2-3 FT THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE FRIDAY BUT WITH EVEN WEAKER SPEEDS...AND SEAS DROP TO JUST
1-2 FT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
739 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS SHUTTING DOWN QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
IS RESULTING IN BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE OVERCAST. HOWEVER...AT
THE SAME TIME SAID EASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING CLOUDS SOUTHWEST
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WHICH SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWFA
IN TIME.
THUS SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE FCST HAVE BEEN DONE TO REFLECT WHAT
IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND HOW IT SHOULD EVOLVE LATER. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
UPDATE...
OVERALL THE EARLIER THINKING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TRENDS FROM THE
06Z WRF AND RECENT RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRY AIR WILL
SLOWLY PUSH THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SOME MINOR TWEEKS HAVE BEEN DONE TO THE FCST TO BETTER REFLECT THE
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA. ..08..
AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/06 AT KDBQ/KMLI AS DRY LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AT KCID/KBRL MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR VSBY WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/05 BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH RAIN ENDING. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT EASTERN IOWA/ILLINOIS WITH RAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS AFT 12Z/06 WILL START OUT AS VFR BUT MAY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ..08..
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KFNB WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WHILE AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RADAR HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND INVERTED
TROF ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A WALL OF DRY AIR WHICH HAS
STOPPED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 850-700MB
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN COMBINATION WITH OVERALL FORCING
FROM THE WRF AND RAP DEPICT QUITE WELL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING DZ/RA ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S COMMON.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. BY LATE TONIGHT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COLLAPSE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY ENTER BUCHANAN
COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA STAYS DRY. 08
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUE-TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT DYNAMICS IN FORM OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100-120+ KT H3 JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO OVERCOME AND GENERATE BAND(S) OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
TUE AM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS. BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
W/SW SECTIONS TUE AFTN IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S... WITH 40S LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH COOLEST READINGS
NORTHEAST CWA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO PRODUCE CLASSIC
NOR`EASTER... WITH STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNFORTUNATELY POUNDING AREAS RECOVERING FROM HURRICANE SANDY WITH
MORE HEAVY PCPN AND STRONG WINDS WED-THU.
WED-WED NGT... INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PROVIDE DRY WX WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO L50S... AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
THU-FRI... SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING. ALOFT... UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
ON STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPORT MODERATING
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SAT-SUN... PATTERN SET TO UNDERGO CHANGE LEADING TO UNSETTLED/WET
REGIME FOR THE AREA. STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH MODELS HANDLING
OF ENERGY AS IT EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS... WITH MAIN IMPACTS
TO TIMING OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. GENERAL CONSENSUS ATTM IS TO
MOVE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN OCCURRING MAINLY POST FRONTAL. LOCATION OF JET DOES
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT STORMS ATTM... BUT
BEING LATE DAY 6-7 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH
MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES. COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF WAVE DEVELOPS ON
FRONT AS SHOWN BY 00Z GFS. THIS IS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY TO BE
RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPS LOOK TO COME CRASHING BACK
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE EARLIER THINKING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TRENDS FROM THE
06Z WRF AND RECENT RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRY AIR WILL
SLOWLY PUSH THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SOME MINOR TWEEKS HAVE BEEN DONE TO THE FCST TO BETTER REFLECT THE
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/06 AT KDBQ/KMLI AS DRY LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AT KCID/KBRL MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR VSBY WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/05 BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH RAIN ENDING. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT EASTERN IOWA/ILLINOIS WITH RAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS AFT 12Z/06 WILL START OUT AS VFR BUT MAY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KFNB WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WHILE AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RADAR HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND INVERTED
TROF ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A WALL OF DRY AIR WHICH HAS
STOPPED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 850-700MB
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN COMBINATION WITH OVERALL FORCING
FROM THE WRF AND RAP DEPICT QUITE WELL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING DZ/RA ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S COMMON.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. BY LATE TONIGHT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COLLAPSE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY ENTER BUCHANAN
COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA STAYS DRY. 08
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUE-TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT DYNAMICS IN FORM OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100-120+ KT H3 JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO OVERCOME AND GENERATE BAND(S) OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
TUE AM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS. BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
W/SW SECTIONS TUE AFTN IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S... WITH 40S LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH COOLEST READINGS
NORTHEAST CWA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO PRODUCE CLASSIC
NOR`EASTER... WITH STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNFORTUNATELY POUNDING AREAS RECOVERING FROM HURRICANE SANDY WITH
MORE HEAVY PCPN AND STRONG WINDS WED-THU.
WED-WED NGT... INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PROVIDE DRY WX WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO L50S... AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
THU-FRI... SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING. ALOFT... UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
ON STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPORT MODERATING
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SAT-SUN... PATTERN SET TO UNDERGO CHANGE LEADING TO UNSETTLED/WET
REGIME FOR THE AREA. STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH MODELS HANDLING
OF ENERGY AS IT EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS... WITH MAIN IMPACTS
TO TIMING OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. GENERAL CONSENSUS ATTM IS TO
MOVE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN OCCURRING MAINLY POST FRONTAL. LOCATION OF JET DOES
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT STORMS ATTM... BUT
BEING LATE DAY 6-7 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH
MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES. COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF WAVE DEVELOPS ON
FRONT AS SHOWN BY 00Z GFS. THIS IS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY TO BE
RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPS LOOK TO COME CRASHING BACK
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
534 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. NAM WAS STRUGGLING WITH WESTERN EXTEND OF CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CURRENT RUC LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WILL BASE CLOUD
FORECAST ON THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THIS MORNING...AND THEN
TRANSITION TO NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO BROKEN-OVERCAST
AT ALL SITES...BUT COULD SEE KRSL/KHUT ONLY GOING BROKEN-OVERCAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A TAD DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE CONUS WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WITH A LARGE...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES IS DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALVES OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. THE WINDS THIS MORNING AND THE
CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
TODAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A TRANQUIL BEGINNING. THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. THE UPPER
PV WAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AND A
SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AFTER SPRITZ AND SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE CHANCE THIS
MORNING...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND WILL PULL YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TODAY AND WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY:
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE FORECAST
WITH A LARGE CHANGE COMING TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE POTENT PV
ANOMALY DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LEE TROUGHING TO DEEPEN
WITH STOUT GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY - SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT THE FORECASTED
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NOW. RECORDS LOOK SAFE FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THEY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
A FEW LOCATIONS IF THINGS STAY ON TRACK.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR BEING AT 144+ HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN SHOCKINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SIMILARITIES THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH WARM SECTOR PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTS
FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY AND BEST
CHANCE WE HAVE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. WITH THESE TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...SOME AREAS OF KANSAS MAY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE FIRE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST AND
TIMING...SO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
BILLINGS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH, 2012
WICHITA....86 IN 2006
RUSSELL....89 IN 2006
SALINA.....89 IN 2006
CHANUTE....84 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH, 2012
WICHITA....82 IN 2006
RUSSELL....78 IN 1999
SALINA.....80 IN 1999
CHANUTE....82 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 10TH, 2012
WICHITA....77 IN 1927
RUSSELL....78 IN 1956
SALINA.....82 IN 1927
CHANUTE....78 IN 1911
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AT THE MID-NGT HOUR A SLOW SE-MOVG COLD FRONT WAS KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AT KSLN & KHUT. NW WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WERE ONLY 5-10KTS
& HAVE THEREFORE EASED ON WIND THROTTLE FOR ALL 5 TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MVFR CIGS
(~2,500FT) WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS FROM
12Z-17Z. WITH THE SE MOVEMENT OF THE 925-850MB LOW THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE KICT & KHUT TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUSTAINED
~17KTS/22MPH WITH GUSTS THAT MAY REACH ~25KTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL 5
TERMINALS FROM ~15Z TIL LATE IN AFTERNOON.
ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 59 35 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 57 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 34 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 56 33 69 36 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 59 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 60 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 57 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 56 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 60 36 67 37 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 55 36 65 36 / 20 0 0 0
IOLA 53 37 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 58 34 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
729 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WEAK NRLY FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NW MISSOURI. A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHRTWV WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SRN ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL WI RESULTING IN WEAK ENE
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
CWA WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2K-3K FT. A
PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES NEAR ANJ/CIU HAS SLID TO THE SW AND MOSTLY
FILLED BACK IN. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE ISOLD -SHSN/FLURRIES HAD AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE LIGHT ERLY 925 MB WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE ERN CWA TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM N OF THE
SAULT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP ERODE THE
CLOUDS. OVER THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF ISOLD -SHSN W AND N OF
MARQUETTE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SRLY...ENDING ANY -SHSN CHANCES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING BEYOND THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. NAM WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT PCPN STARTING OUT AS SNOW COULD BEGIN CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
WILL ONLY BE OVER THE FAR WEST FROM IWD-CMX. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT COATING (FEW TENTHS) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BY ROUGHLY 2-3HRS IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO PUSH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE
STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONE TO TWO
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE COOLER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N CENTRAL UPPER MI THAT SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. STILL HAVE HALF OF AN INCH TO RIGHT AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE DGZ AROUND 600MB IS
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
S SFC TO 850MB WINDS OF 15-25KTS OVER N CENTRAL TO NE UPPER MI
TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN WEDNESDAY AND STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SW FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE CWA AND THE
APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE EDGES JUST TO OUR E.
WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE HAD OVER THE CWA IN A COUPLE OF
WEEKS /850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY BU TO 12C AT 00Z SUN OFF THE NEW 11/00Z
ECMWF/. WITH ALL THE WARM AIR AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES KEPT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT DID A BIT OF TAILORING
TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
SAW/CMX...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH SLOWLY VEERING UPSLOPE NE TO E FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
HIGH PRES SLIDING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND UNDER SHARP LOW
SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHSN MAINLY AT CMX WITH
MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...THE LOW INVERSION BASE WILL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN AND ANY RESTRICTION TO VSBY. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
IWD...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPING S DIRECTION WL BRING A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MON AFTN THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT AT IWD/CMX WHEN RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WEAK NRLY FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NW MISSOURI. A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHRTWV WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SRN ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL WI RESULTING IN WEAK ENE
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
CWA WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2K-3K FT. A
PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES NEAR ANJ/CIU HAS SLID TO THE SW AND MOSTLY
FILLED BACK IN. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE ISOLD -SHSN/FLURRIES HAD AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE LIGHT ERLY 925 MB WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE ERN CWA TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM N OF THE
SAULT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP ERODE THE
CLOUDS. OVER THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF ISOLD -SHSN W AND N OF
MARQUETTE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SRLY...ENDING ANY -SHSN CHANCES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING BEYOND THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. NAM WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT PCPN STARTING OUT AS SNOW COULD BEGIN CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
WILL ONLY BE OVER THE FAR WEST FROM IWD-CMX. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT COATING (FEW TENTHS) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BY ROUGHLY 2-3HRS IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO PUSH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE
STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONE TO TWO
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE COOLER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N CENTRAL UPPER MI THAT SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. STILL HAVE HALF OF AN INCH TO RIGHT AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE DGZ AROUND 600MB IS
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
S SFC TO 850MB WINDS OF 15-25KTS OVER N CENTRAL TO NE UPPER MI
TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN WEDNESDAY AND STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SW FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE CWA AND THE
APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE EDGES JUST TO OUR E.
WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE HAD OVER THE CWA IN A COUPLE OF
WEEKS /850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY BU TO 12C AT 00Z SUN OFF THE NEW 11/00Z
ECMWF/. WITH ALL THE WARM AIR AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES KEPT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT DID A BIT OF TAILORING
TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
SAW/CMX...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THRU THIS MRNG WITH
SLOWLY VEERING UPSLOPE NE TO E FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF HI PRES SLIDING
SLOWLY SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO AND UNDER SHARP LOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN
SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHSN MAINLY
AT CMX WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE FLOW...LO INVRN BASE WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN AND ANY RESTRICTION TO VSBY. BY MON AFTN...
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WSHFT TO THE S SHOULD ALLOW A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
KIWD...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO RETURN EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPING S
DIRECTION WL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MON AFTN THAT
PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
645 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...JUST SHIPPED A FAIRLY MINOR UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE OBVIOUS FROM THE LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BOOST SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO 100 PERCENT FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA. AS HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL CAPTURED BY
VARIOUS MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS AND ALSO THE LOW CLOUD COVER
GUIDANCE FROM THE 09Z HRRR...BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY
OVERTAKEN ALL AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ITS ULTIMATE FATE...BUT WILL CONTINUE
BANKING ON SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON EROSION...LIKELY IN SOME WEST-
TO-EAST FASHION. JUST IN CASE THESE LOW CLOUDS HANG FIRMER THAN
THOUGHT...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED DURING A
STRETCH OF DAYS A FEW WEEKS AGO...NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPS 1 DEGREE
ACROSS THE BOARD. MAYBE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE A MINOR
BUT INCORRECT MOVE...BUT WHEN IT COMES TO COLD SEASON
STRATUS...DOWNWARD IS USUALLY THE DIRECTION TO GO AND THERE IS
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN HOURLY TEMP
FIELDS FROM THE 09Z HRRR AS WELL. REITERATING FROM THE EARLIER
AFD...WE ARE NOW TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS TODAY AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IT DOES/DOESN`T BREAK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. CEILINGS ARE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS
SOME LOCATIONS ARE DIPPING JUST INSIDE THE IFR CATEGORY...BUT THE
TERMINAL SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO HAVE PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD DECREASE
BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRATUS WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT...BUT
SHOULD AT LEAST RAISE A BIT OVER TIME TODAY. TOUGH CALL FOR END OF
STRATUS BUT WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS...GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
539 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. CEILINGS ARE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS
SOME LOCATIONS ARE DIPPING JUST INSIDE THE IFR CATEGORY...BUT THE
TERMINAL SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO HAVE PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD DECREASE
BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRATUS WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT...BUT
SHOULD AT LEAST RAISE A BIT OVER TIME TODAY. TOUGH CALL FOR END OF
STRATUS BUT WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS...GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
10Z...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST 10Z-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED 14Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900FT
AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TURBULENT MIXING FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE
FORMATION...AND WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT 6SM 10-14Z AS A
RESULT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 16KTS AND GUSTING TO
AROUND 22KTS 14Z ONWARD. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF LLWS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASE TO NEAR 35KTS AND THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS NEAR 5KTS.
WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING
AS IT APPEARS WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA...BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR UNTIL THE SURFACE WIND INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
256 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER MONTANA SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS IN PLACE
ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES.
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER CANADA AND THE
ONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WEST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THEN TURN BACK NORTH BEHIND
IT. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES/CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING
AND ACTIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SYSTEMS
TO NOTE...DEEPENING SOON TO BE STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH VERY STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING/DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN CANADA AT THIS TIME. DRY AIR MASS
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE
VERY STRONG THAT RUNS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ON THE WEST SIDE
OF DEVELOPING EASTERN CONUS SYSTEM. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE. THE SREF AND NAM WERE DOING
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST AT THIS TIME ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE. MINS
RECENTLY HAVE FALLING WELL BELOW NWP. WENT IN THAT DIRECTION AND
CLOSER TO THE GEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THE SURFACE RIDGE PULLS
AWAY WITH A CHILLY START...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. NEWER NAM IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF SUN AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME
EXCEPT WARMING THEM UP A TOUCH. THE WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. AS TROUGH LINE PASSES THROUGH THE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITH THEM WARMING UP AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH. SO WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.
THURSDAY...MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND
TIMING AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS MAY BE RUSHING THINGS A LITTLE BIT.
AT THIS TIME...DID A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMEST AND COOLEST
TEMPERATURES BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE IT BEING WARMER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS HOW
THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER. THE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH
THE STRONGEST/BEST DYNAMICS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND SPLITTING OFF
THE WEAKER SOUTHERN END FURTHER SOUTH LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE
MIDDLE. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH WITH MORE
SUPPORT FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEL IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS...MODELS AGREE ON VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THICK CLOUD
COVER. AS A RESULT OF THAT AND COLLABORATION...WARMED UP MAXES.
THIS WARM UP STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE FRONT COMES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT. SOME DISCREPANCY ON TIMING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A THICKENING
CLOUD DECK AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. SO LEFT
THE INHERITED INIT ALONE. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INIT GRIDS LOOK
FINE BUT DID MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT DOWN.
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON...INTO SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ONLY CONCERN NOW IS IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PREVAIL...THE PRECIPITATION COULD START LATER IN THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MORE OF SUNDAY. DESPITE THE BRUNT
OF THE LIFT BEING FURTHER NORTH...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET...VERY
STRONG PV ANOMALY...AND STRONG CO-LOCATED MESOSCALE FORCING LOCATED
WITH FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...DO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. THINK WE WILL GET SOMETHING JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH. AM
CONCERNED AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY IN UPCOMING
FORECASTS OF BANDED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. KEPT
THE PHASE RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SWITCHED IT OVER TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS
INTO SUNDAY...COULD BE ALL SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE. FOR THE
PRECIPITATION KEPT WHAT THE INIT GRID PRODUCED. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON NOV 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS
AND TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
ON WEDNESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BECOME LOW. HOWEVER THE WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO BE TOO LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.
ON FRIDAY...THIS DAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP IN
THE SAME AREA. IF WARM FRONT IS FASTER MOVING NORTH AND THE WINDS
END UP STRONGER...THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT OVER MONTANA SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS IN PLACE
ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES.
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER CANADA AND THE
ONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WEST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THEN TURN BACK NORTH BEHIND
IT. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST MON
NOV 5 2012
FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
SUNDAY MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
ENDS BY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MID 60S NORTH MID 70S SOUTH PER
GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY 850 TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE A
BIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE WARMED READINGS QUITE A BIT WITH 65 TO 70 ALONG THE
KS/NE BORDER (NOT AS CONFIDENT IN WARMUP GIVEN WARM FRONT POSITION)
AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY BURLINGTON AND
HILL CITY IF EVERYTHING WORKS OUT PERFECTLY. FOR SATURDAY WONT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR
EAST AS THE FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE KEY TO THE FORECAST. FINALLY FOR
SUNDAY MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850 SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 25 TO NEAR 35 KTS ALONG/EAST OF THE STATE LINE WHICH IF
TRANSLATE TO THE SFC WILL CREATE CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS CURRENT RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. POST FRONTAL WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL GIVEN 850 WINDS. COULD SEE
GUSTS 25-30 MPH WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON NOV 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS
AND TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1141 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE HOW QUICK TO CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH LAST EVENING AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MVFR CIGS OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT BY 21Z MOST OF THE CIGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3,000FT WITH
KCNU KEEPING THE CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL DRAG ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING THE
LOWER CIGS THAN THE MOST RECENT ONE DID.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER
HAVE UPDATED TO KEEP UP WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD TRENDS. IN
ADDITION DROPPED MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. NAM WAS STRUGGLING WITH WESTERN EXTEND OF CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CURRENT RUC LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WILL BASE CLOUD
FORECAST ON THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THIS MORNING...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO BROKEN-OVERCAST
AT ALL SITES...BUT COULD SEE KRSL/KHUT ONLY GOING BROKEN-OVERCAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A TAD DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE CONUS WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WITH A LARGE...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES IS DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALVES OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. THE WINDS THIS MORNING AND THE
CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
TODAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A TRANQUIL BEGINNING. THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. THE UPPER
PV WAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AND A
SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AFTER SPRITZ AND SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE CHANCE THIS
MORNING...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND WILL PULL YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TODAY AND WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY:
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE FORECAST
WITH A LARGE CHANGE COMING TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE POTENT PV
ANOMALY DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LEE TROUGHING TO DEEPEN
WITH STOUT GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY - SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT THE FORECASTED
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NOW. RECORDS LOOK SAFE FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THEY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
A FEW LOCATIONS IF THINGS STAY ON TRACK.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR BEING AT 144+ HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN SHOCKINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SIMILARITIES THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH WARM SECTOR PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTS
FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY AND BEST
CHANCE WE HAVE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. WITH THESE TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...SOME AREAS OF KANSAS MAY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE FIRE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST AND
TIMING...SO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
BILLINGS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH, 2012
WICHITA....86 IN 2006
RUSSELL....89 IN 2006
SALINA.....89 IN 2006
CHANUTE....84 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH, 2012
WICHITA....82 IN 2006
RUSSELL....78 IN 1999
SALINA.....80 IN 1999
CHANUTE....82 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 10TH, 2012
WICHITA....77 IN 1927
RUSSELL....78 IN 1956
SALINA.....82 IN 1927
CHANUTE....78 IN 1911
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AT THE MID-NGT HOUR A SLOW SE-MOVG COLD FRONT WAS KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AT KSLN & KHUT. NW WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WERE ONLY 5-10KTS
& HAVE THEREFORE EASED ON WIND THROTTLE FOR ALL 5 TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MVFR CIGS
(~2,500FT) WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS FROM
12Z-17Z. WITH THE SE MOVEMENT OF THE 925-850MB LOW THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE KICT & KHUT TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUSTAINED
~17KTS/22MPH WITH GUSTS THAT MAY REACH ~25KTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL 5
TERMINALS FROM ~15Z TIL LATE IN AFTERNOON.
ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 35 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 55 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 53 34 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 33 69 36 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 57 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 58 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 54 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 54 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 36 67 37 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 36 65 36 / 20 0 0 0
IOLA 51 37 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 34 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1049 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER
HAVE UPDATED TO KEEP UP WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD TRENDS. IN
ADDITION DROPPED MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. NAM WAS STRUGGLING WITH WESTERN EXTEND OF CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CURRENT RUC LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WILL BASE CLOUD
FORECAST ON THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THIS MORNING...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO BROKEN-OVERCAST
AT ALL SITES...BUT COULD SEE KRSL/KHUT ONLY GOING BROKEN-OVERCAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A TAD DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE CONUS WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WITH A LARGE...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES IS DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALVES OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. THE WINDS THIS MORNING AND THE
CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
TODAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A TRANQUIL BEGINNING. THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. THE UPPER
PV WAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AND A
SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AFTER SPRITZ AND SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE CHANCE THIS
MORNING...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND WILL PULL YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TODAY AND WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY:
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE FORECAST
WITH A LARGE CHANGE COMING TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE POTENT PV
ANOMALY DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AID LEE TROUGHING TO DEEPEN
WITH STOUT GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY - SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT THE FORECASTED
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NOW. RECORDS LOOK SAFE FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THEY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
A FEW LOCATIONS IF THINGS STAY ON TRACK.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AND FOR BEING AT 144+ HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN SHOCKINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SIMILARITIES THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH WARM SECTOR PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTS
FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY AND BEST
CHANCE WE HAVE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. WITH THESE TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...SOME AREAS OF KANSAS MAY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE FIRE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST AND
TIMING...SO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
BILLINGS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH, 2012
WICHITA....86 IN 2006
RUSSELL....89 IN 2006
SALINA.....89 IN 2006
CHANUTE....84 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH, 2012
WICHITA....82 IN 2006
RUSSELL....78 IN 1999
SALINA.....80 IN 1999
CHANUTE....82 IN 2006
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 10TH, 2012
WICHITA....77 IN 1927
RUSSELL....78 IN 1956
SALINA.....82 IN 1927
CHANUTE....78 IN 1911
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AT THE MID-NGT HOUR A SLOW SE-MOVG COLD FRONT WAS KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AT KSLN & KHUT. NW WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WERE ONLY 5-10KTS
& HAVE THEREFORE EASED ON WIND THROTTLE FOR ALL 5 TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MVFR CIGS
(~2,500FT) WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS FROM
12Z-17Z. WITH THE SE MOVEMENT OF THE 925-850MB LOW THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE KICT & KHUT TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUSTAINED
~17KTS/22MPH WITH GUSTS THAT MAY REACH ~25KTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL 5
TERMINALS FROM ~15Z TIL LATE IN AFTERNOON.
ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 35 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 55 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 53 34 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 33 69 36 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 57 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 58 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 54 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 54 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 36 67 37 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 52 36 65 36 / 20 0 0 0
IOLA 51 37 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 53 34 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1211 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WEAK NRLY FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NW MISSOURI. A STRONGER UPSTREAM
SHRTWV WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SRN ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL WI RESULTING IN WEAK ENE
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
CWA WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2K-3K FT. A
PATCH OF CLEAR SKIES NEAR ANJ/CIU HAS SLID TO THE SW AND MOSTLY
FILLED BACK IN. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE ISOLD -SHSN/FLURRIES HAD AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE LIGHT ERLY 925 MB WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE ERN CWA TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM N OF THE
SAULT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP ERODE THE
CLOUDS. OVER THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF ISOLD -SHSN W AND N OF
MARQUETTE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SRLY...ENDING ANY -SHSN CHANCES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING BEYOND THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. NAM WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT PCPN STARTING OUT AS SNOW COULD BEGIN CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
WILL ONLY BE OVER THE FAR WEST FROM IWD-CMX. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT COATING (FEW TENTHS) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BY ROUGHLY 2-3HRS IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO PUSH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE
STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONE TO TWO
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE COOLER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N CENTRAL UPPER MI THAT SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. STILL HAVE HALF OF AN INCH TO RIGHT AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE DGZ AROUND 600MB IS
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
S SFC TO 850MB WINDS OF 15-25KTS OVER N CENTRAL TO NE UPPER MI
TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN WEDNESDAY AND STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SW FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE CWA AND THE
APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE EDGES JUST TO OUR E.
WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE HAD OVER THE CWA IN A COUPLE OF
WEEKS /850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY BU TO 12C AT 00Z SUN OFF THE NEW 11/00Z
ECMWF/. WITH ALL THE WARM AIR AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES KEPT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT DID A BIT OF TAILORING
TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS FORECAST AND KEEP MVFR CIGS IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. BY TONIGHT...GETS A BIT TRICKY
WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS CONDITIONS WILL
GO VFR OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. WHEN PCPN
STARTS...CONDITIONS WILL GO BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A RASN
MIXTURE. PUT IN SOME LLWS AT IWD LATE TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
318 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE REGION IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY QUICKLY DROPPING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER FEATURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE ADDED A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SLOW TO SATURATE
LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD ALLOW GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE AREA
AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
KERN
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BIG SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES.
THE EC/GFS/GEFS/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
SOME TYPICALLY TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED TROF
SETTLING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE GULF IS OPEN WITH H85 FLOW
FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH THE DRY SLOT HEADING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND BY 18Z SATURDAY
IS CENTERED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA
(GFS/EC/GEFS) OR MINNESOTA (CANADIAN). THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE AHEAD OF...NORTH...AND TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LIFT/WAA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND THEN LIFTING NORTH AND SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST. THE EC IS
SLOWER WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND HOLDS ON TO THE HIGH 10 TO 12DEG C
H85 DEWPOINTS. COMBINED WITH THE LIFT WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM THESE
DIFFERENCES ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES IN RESULTANT QPF WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE EC.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S AND
MUCH COLDER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FOR NOW HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...SOME POPS
INTO SUNDAY. WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE A MIX IN THE NORTHEAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SHOULD THERE BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A MIX OR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
IFR/MVFR CIGS BETWEEN FL005 AND FL015 WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER NEAR KOMA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...BUT ANY CLEARING WILL
LEAD TO IFR FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
.UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST...MAINLY TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD AND SHOULD BE CLOSE...THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KGRI TO RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
NORTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING AND
THEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE EVENING. THE WIND WILL VEER WITH TIME
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
UPDATE...JUST SHIPPED A FAIRLY MINOR UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE OBVIOUS FROM THE LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BOOST SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO 100 PERCENT FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA. AS HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL CAPTURED BY
VARIOUS MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS AND ALSO THE LOW CLOUD COVER
GUIDANCE FROM THE 09Z HRRR...BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY
OVERTAKEN ALL AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ITS ULTIMATE FATE...BUT WILL CONTINUE
BANKING ON SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON EROSION...LIKELY IN SOME WEST-
TO-EAST FASHION. JUST IN CASE THESE LOW CLOUDS HANG FIRMER THAN
THOUGHT...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED DURING A
STRETCH OF DAYS A FEW WEEKS AGO...NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPS 1 DEGREE
ACROSS THE BOARD. MAYBE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE A MINOR
BUT INCORRECT MOVE...BUT WHEN IT COMES TO COLD SEASON
STRATUS...DOWNWARD IS USUALLY THE DIRECTION TO GO AND THERE IS
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN HOURLY TEMP
FIELDS FROM THE 09Z HRRR AS WELL. REITERATING FROM THE EARLIER
AFD...WE ARE NOW TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS TODAY AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IT DOES/DOESN`T BREAK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...JUST
THE FIRST 12 HOURS ALONE PRESENT ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN GENERAL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY STILL VERY MUCH LOOKING
LIKE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WORK-WEEK.
09Z CENTRAL PLAINS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1015MB
LOW ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM WY TO ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IS PROMOTING A NOTICEABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRE-DAWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 37-43 RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THIS HOUR...WITH THIS WAVE STILL PROMOTING
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MO RIVER EASTWARD INTO IA/MO ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A STOUT 110+KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
AFFECTED PARTS OF MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE
SINCE PUSHED OFF EAST OF THE AREA...LIKELY LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THEIR WAKE. AS THE NIGHT HAS WORN
ON...THIS LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SINCE
BEEN REPLACED BY A RATHER SOLID BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS AVERAGING
UNDER 2000 FT...WHICH HAS ALREADY OVERTAKEN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AS WELL.
TODAY...CLOUD COVER/TEMPS ARE CLEARLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...OPTED TO OMIT ALL MENTION THROUGH THE 6AM-6PM
DAYTIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MIGHT YET MATERIALIZE BETWEEN NOW
AND MID-MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS LEAVE A BIT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTH FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION...AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON
INSERTING ANY MENTION UNLESS GROUND TRUTH REPORTS PROVE IT
NECESSARY. TEMP-WISE...MUCH LIKE SOME FORGETTABLE DAYS A FEW WEEKS
AGO...WE ARE TRULY AT THE MERCY OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...AND HOW
QUICKLY IT TRIES TO SCATTER OUT OR ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA. AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IS GOING TO BE QUITE SOCKED IN
OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH RAISED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT DID PROBABLY
NOT GO HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST AREAS. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR WE SHOULD...AT LEAST
IN THEORY...SEE SOME KIND OF WEST-TO-EAST PARTIAL CLEARING TREND
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ALTHOUGH EVEN AREAS THAT LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FARE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
INCOMING HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 81...SHOULD BE LAST TO SEE THE
BREAKUP OF THE LOW STRATUS...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN AT
ALL TODAY. ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
MISSING HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IF CLOUD EXPECTATION DON/T PAN
OUT...BUT FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LEGITIMATELY BREEZY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT
LEAST 5-7 MPH...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SPEEDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE 6PM-6AM TONIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL PRECIP
MENTION OUT...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING BY THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS. IN SHORT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RIDE
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA/NORTHEAST NEB AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PROMOTING LEGITIMATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG ITS TRACK. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL RESIDE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO
REALIZE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PER NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT AGAIN WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TRY TO SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SWITCHING BREEZES FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OFFICIALLY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDS...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN RISING
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS MIXING PICKS UP...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE RETAINED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE BUT DID RAISE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 34-38 RANGE.
FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DEGREE OF
PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW STRATUS
ISSUES WE ARE STARTING OUT WITH TODAY...AND OVERALL THINK IT
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUD DAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY
DAY IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES
AGAIN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THESE NORTH
WINDS...DECENT MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE TEMPS A NOTICEABLE
BOOST OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND RAISED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES MOST
AREAS PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST...LOW 60S TRI-CITIES AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT SHOULD HOLD SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS ZEROED OUT...AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS A BIT MORE SO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT
PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES. ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
RATHER EFFICIENTLY AND BASED ON MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND LOWERED
LOWS 1-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...NOW AIMING FOR MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
PRECIP...AS THE HEART OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...AND NUDGED UP SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AT LEAST 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTH BREEZES SHOULD GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER UPWARD
BOOST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH PLAYED IT SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAW
NAM SOLUTION...DID INCREASE PREVIOUS HIGHS GENERALLY 2 DEGREES NOW
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S EAST TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...AM CALLING FOR A BIT WARMER NIGHT THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST
AREAS HOLDING UP IN THE 37-41 RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION FOR THE LONG
TERM AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT...BUT DO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE
BEGIN THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A VERY MILD REGIME TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM.
THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER TIME AND BY SATURDAY...THE
ROBUST DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SATURDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE I INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
MUCAPES WOULD SUPPORT THIS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BY THE TIME WE GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...QPF SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. THE GFS SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
MEAN MORE SNOW...BUT I AM NOT BUYING IN TO THIS AT THIS TIME. I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL LIKELY BE TREMENDOUS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR SUNDAY. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WE VERY WELL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...AND
COUPLED WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...THIS COULD BE QUITE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD DAY...EVEN FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
COASTAL SYSTEM INCREASES THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION NORTH OF MAINE...WHICH CONTS TO PRODUCE AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT WITH ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS
SLOWLY MOVING TWD THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT VIS SAT PIC CONTS TO
SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS BENEATH THIS FEATURE. STILL DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AMOUNT OF CLRING TONIGHT/TUESDAY...AS SOUNDINGS CONT TO
SHOW RH BTWN 2000 FT AND 6000 FT...ESPECIALLY THE RAP. WL POPULATE
SKY GRIDS USING THE RAP THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
ANTICIPATED. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST FLW AND WEAK S/W ENERGY...ALONG
WITH SOME LAKE INSTABILITY...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE CPV AND MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE <1.0"...BUT AS TEMPS DROP BLW FREEZING A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS WL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON AMOUNT OF CLRING...BUT THINKING WITH
CLOUDS AND SOME CLRING AFT MIDNIGHT...LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS SLK/NEK TO M/U20S CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL FLW SLOWLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACRS OUR CWA. VIS SATL PICS ACTUAL SHOW THE CLEARING ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/OHIO VALLEY...SO THINK WE WL SEE SOME SUN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR...WITH JUST A LITTLE RH AROUND 3000 FT. WL
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACRS THE MTNS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -10C...ALONG WITH 925MB NEAR
-3C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U20S MTNS TO U30S WARMER VALLEYS...A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DUE TO MORE SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES ON TUES
NIGHT INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS SLK/NEK TO UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.
THIS WL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON. WEDS...RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL ADVECT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR
CWA...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING/THICKENING AFT 18Z.
WEDS NIGHT...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING ACRS THE SE CONUS WL
INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS ON WEDS....WITH A SLOW TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG
THE COAST ON WEDS NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BY 00Z THURS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH
SFC LOW PRES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z THURS. GIVEN...GOOD
RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH LIFTING ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH A BAND
OF FAVORABLE FG FORCING...WL INCREASE POPS TO CAT SOUTHERN VT ZNS TO
CHC SLV ON WEDS NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW INITIAL BL TEMPS WL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THE
COLUMN SHOULD QUICKLY COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...AS
EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...A WARM
LAYER BTWN 875MB AND 800MB DEVELOPS WITH TEMPS BTWN
3-5C...SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL MIX. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ATTM...AS BEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST QPF IS EASTERN/CENTRAL
CWA...ALONG WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS...AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILE IS
COLDEST ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...QPF IS LIGHT. THINKING ADVISORY TYPE
EVENT AT MOST AT THIS TIME...BUT ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK...WL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON QPF PLACEMENT AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...PROBABILITY REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL
FEEL EFFECTS OF COASTAL LOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DIFFICULTY LIES IN DETERMINING DETAILS SUCH AS PTYPE AND QPF.
BY 12Z THURSDAY..SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...FULLY CAPTURED BY UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST FGEN WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...AFTER WHICH TIME PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND LIGHTER. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS MARGINAL UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB.
STILL LOOKING AT A MAINLY COLD RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW OR MIXED PCPN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
SLEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST.
PRECIPITATION THEN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
STAYING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
TOTAL QPF EXPECTED TO VARY FROM LESS THAN .25 INCHES IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AROUND .75 INCHES ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.
SYSTEM THEN EXITS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY AND THEN
PASSES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN
QUESTION THOUGH AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY
MONDAY WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...THEN CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SLK/BTV/MPV. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
NORTHWEST 8-13 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS LOW
DEPARTS FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS