Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/04/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. LARGE AND DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF SANDY IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER LONGWAVE EAST COAST
TROUGH BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH
HAS DE-AMPLIFIED ENOUGH FOR OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NO LACK
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
SHOWS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A VERY LOW PW VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.65" WAS SAMPLED...WHICH IS ONLY
ABOUT 60% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE DRY COLUMN IS ALLOWING
JUST ABOUT 100% OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE/INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA AND WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LOWER
LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY COLUMN TO RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MOST LOCATION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND URBAN
SETTINGS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S...HOWEVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BRIEFLY DIP IN TO UPPER 40S
TOWARD SUNRISE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN
CHANCES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW A DECENT DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WITH A DEVELOPING LIGHT AFTERNOON FLOW OFF THE NOW RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH NO MORE
40S EXPECTED. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD SEE LATE NIGHT READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK IMPULSE
ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING DOWN TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. COLUMN
MOISTURE AND BEST LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO HOLD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH OF I-4 AS THE IMPULSE
APPROACHES...BUT OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY IN
THE FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS UP TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS/SUMTER COUNTY AS THE FRONT SAGS JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND KEEP ANY
ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
UPDATE TO MONDAY/TUESDAY...MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE NEAR I-10 INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DURING
MONDAY...GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ENERGY ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORM SOUTH AND EAST OF TAMPA BAY AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 30% FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...AROUND TAMPA BAY AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD UP THE NATURE COAST...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING
BETTER AND BETTER. HAVE RAISED POP TO AROUND 50% FOR THESE ZONES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...
EVEN THESE NUMBERS MAY BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.
&&
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF MEXICO IS BOUNDED BY A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH THAT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT STRETCHES FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. AS
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AFTER THAT
FRONT CLEARS...A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND IT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND A SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF WITH DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR TAKING
HOLD OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN THINGS COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS EXITED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO RIDGES TOWARD
FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE SUNDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. A COMBINATION OF LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES OVER 35 ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR LEE AND INLAND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF POLK COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS ZONE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 60 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 57 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 48 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 65 80 64 78 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR HERNANDO-
LEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
AVIATION...DAVIS
LONG TERM...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1110 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. LARGE AND DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF SANDY IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER LONGWAVE EAST COAST
TROUGH BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH
HAS DE-AMPLIFIED ENOUGH FOR OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NO LACK
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
SHOWS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A VERY LOW PW VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.65" WAS SAMPLED...WHICH IS ONLY
ABOUT 60% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE DRY COLUMN IS ALLOWING
JUST ABOUT 100% OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE/INSOLATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA AND WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LOWER
LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE/CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY COLUMN...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MOST LOCATION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND URBAN SETTINGS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S...HOWEVER THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BRIEFLY DIP IN
TO UPPER 40S TOWARD SUNRISE.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW A DECENT DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON. IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH
A DEVELOPING LIGHT AFTERNOON FLOW OFF THE NOW RELATIVELY COOLER
SHELF WATERS.
INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS EXITED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST WATERS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO
RIDGES TOWARD FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE SUNDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 61 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 81 59 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 79 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 76 60 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 78 48 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 77 66 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR HERNANDO-LEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A FEW RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY, SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 13Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CROSS THROUGH THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN VEER THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE LAKE
REGION WITH A WEAK DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS AND IR2 IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ESE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND OVER
THE GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND NAPLES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FL PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BACK TO AROUND THE HALF INCH
MARK. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT HIGHS REACHING THE 80-83
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND AND NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S FARTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
INDICATE THE MAIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIMINISHING OR DRYING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SOUTH TOWARD AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WE WILL
KEEP MAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THIS PACKAGE THROUGH THE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REALLY DOES
NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY
AIR WILL BE EXPECTED IF THIS TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
VERIFIES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF MARINE AREAS
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND WILL BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE BY THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LONG DURATIONS WITH
SUB 35 PERCENT RH VALUES COMBINED WITH ERC VALUES IN THE MID 20S
WILL SUPPORT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ACROSS THE AREAS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM GLADES TO INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 57 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 63 81 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIAMI 81 63 82 67 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 79 58 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
311 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE LAKE
REGION WITH A WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS AND IR2 IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ESE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND OVER
THE GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND NAPLES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FL PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BACK TO AROUND THE HALF INCH
MARK. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT HIGHS REACHING THE 80-83
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND AND NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S FARTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
INDICATE THE MAIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIMINISHING OR DRYING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SOUTH TOWARD AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WE WILL
KEEP MAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THIS PACKAGE THROUGH THE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REALLY DOES
NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY
AIR WILL BE EXPECTED IF THIS TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
VERIFIES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF MARINE AREAS
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND WILL BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE BY THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LONG DURATIONS WITH
SUB 35 PERCENT RH VALUES COMBINED WITH ERC VALUES IN THE MID 20S
WILL SUPPORT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ACROSS THE AREAS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM GLADES TO INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 57 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 63 81 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIAMI 81 63 82 67 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 79 58 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDS 2500-3000 FT AGL
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER/IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM NNW TO NE AT ORD/MDW NOW
BECOMING FIRMLY NORTHEAST...WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING
OR ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH PER KLOT/TORD RADARS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE 030-040 DEG WINDS NEAR 10 KTS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH VFR
SCT CU AND HIGH BKN/OVC HIGH CIRRUS.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT
MIDDAY WITH A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TERMINALS EAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTHERLY...THOUGH A SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST 020-040 DEG HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND A PSEUDO-LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHIFT MAY
OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER THAN MORNING FORECASTS INDICATED...WITH
RECENT ORD/MDW 1-MINUTE ASOS DATA SHOWING WINDS VARYING 340-030
DEG OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LAST COUPLE OF HOURLY RUNS OF RAP
MODEL ALSO SUPPORT AN EARLIER SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS
ANTICIPATE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO LOCK IN DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU AT THE 2500-3000 FT AGL
LEVEL. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST...SOME OF THIS WILL
ATTEMPT OT PUSH INLAND INTO CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. RAP/NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE AND TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATOCU CEILINGS IN THE HIGH-MVFR RANGE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND LINGER THOUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WHILE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES OCCURRING WITH CURRENT LAKE-INDUCED
CLOUD COVER INTO INDIANA SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING. THEREFORE HAVE NOT
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN TAFS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT/BELOW 3000 FT LATER
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPII VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDS 2500-3000 FT AGL
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM NNW TO NE AT ORD/MDW NOW
BECOMING FIRMLY NORTHEAST...WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING
OR ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH PER KLOT/TORD RADARS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE 030-040 DEG WINDS NEAR 10 KTS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH VFR
SCT CU AND HIGH BKN/OVC HIGH CIRRUS.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT
MIDDAY WITH A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TERMINALS EAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTHERLY...THOUGH A SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST 020-040 DEG HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND A PSEUDO-LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHIFT MAY
OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER THAN MORNING FORECASTS INDICATED...WITH
RECENT ORD/MDW 1-MINUTE ASOS DATA SHOWING WINDS VARYING 340-030
DEG OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LAST COUPLE OF HOURLY RUNS OF RAP
MODEL ALSO SUPPORT AN EARLIER SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS
ANTICIPATE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO LOCK IN DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU AT THE 2500-3000 FT AGL
LEVEL. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST...SOME OF THIS WILL
ATTEMPT OT PUSH INLAND INTO CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. RAP/NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE AND TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATOCU CEILINGS IN THE HIGH-MVFR RANGE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND LINGER THOUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WHILE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES OCCURRING WITH CURRENT LAKE-INDUCED
CLOUD COVER INTO INDIANA SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING. THEREFORE HAVE NOT
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN TAFS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT/BELOW 3000 FT LATER
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPII VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1213 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 955 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
GOING FORECAST LARGELY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS NEEDED THIS MORNING. THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH LATEST NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING THESE CLOUDS THICKENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO GET
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE CWA...AND MAY
GET A TAD HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1213 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO PREVIOUS TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY LOWER
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 6000 FEET
LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF
THIS LOW TRACK WILL MAKE A CLOSE PASS AT KDEC/KSPI DURING ABOUT
THE 10-15Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH MENTION AT
THESE SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE AT KCMI...BUT
DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE SOUNDINGS MAKE IT MORE UNCERTAIN AND THUS
WILL LEAVE RAIN MENTION OUT OF THE KCMI TAF FOR NOW.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE TEMPS AND WILL USE A BLEND. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTHERN MO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S OVER CENTRAL
IL WITH GALESBURG DOWN TO 31F...AND LOW TO MID 40S IN SE IL.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S CENTRAL IL AND MID
30S SE IL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM 1031 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MANITOBA AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING
SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS IA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES IN EASTERN IL.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERALL TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. COOLER HIGHS TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER 50S
CENTRAL IL AND MID 50S IN SE IL.
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CO TO WEAKEN TO 1013 MB AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SW OF IL TO SPREAD A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO SE
IL SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER IN FAR SW/SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF IL
TO KEEP NORTHERN AREAS DRIER ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS NW OF THE IL RIVER WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INCLUDING IL/IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
KEEPING IT DRY.
HAVE A JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR SW AREAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SE ACROSS SW MO AND AR WHERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO OUR
SW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH COOL HIGHS MONDAY
AROUND 50F.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IL TUE. NOTICED THE ECMWF MODEL DOES
BRING LIGHT QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND GFS KEEPS QPF NNE OF CENTRAL IL SO WILL
STAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LESS THAN 15%. IL IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DURING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MS VALLEY DURING 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND. ECMWF (ECE) IS 10-15F WARMER THAN GFS (MEX)
BY NEXT FRI. STAYED CLOSE TO ALLBEND TEMPS DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU AND LOW
TO MID 60S FRI.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
957 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 955 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
GOING FORECAST LARGELY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS NEEDED THIS MORNING. THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH LATEST NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING THESE CLOUDS THICKENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO GET
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE CWA...AND MAY
GET A TAD HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 657 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
HIGH/THIN OVERCAST WILL BE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL THICKENING/LOWERING OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000FT
AFTER 07Z. AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS BY TO THE
SOUTH...A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS KSPI AND KDEC
OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THOSE SITES AFTER 07/08Z...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE N AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL VEER TO E/NE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE TEMPS AND WILL USE A BLEND. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTHERN MO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S OVER CENTRAL
IL WITH GALESBURG DOWN TO 31F...AND LOW TO MID 40S IN SE IL.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S CENTRAL IL AND MID
30S SE IL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM 1031 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MANITOBA AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING
SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS IA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES IN EASTERN IL.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERALL TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. COOLER HIGHS TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER 50S
CENTRAL IL AND MID 50S IN SE IL.
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CO TO WEAKEN TO 1013 MB AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SW OF IL TO SPREAD A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO SE
IL SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER IN FAR SW/SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF IL
TO KEEP NORTHERN AREAS DRIER ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS NW OF THE IL RIVER WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INCLUDING IL/IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
KEEPING IT DRY.
HAVE A JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR SW AREAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SE ACROSS SW MO AND AR WHERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO OUR
SW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH COOL HIGHS MONDAY
AROUND 50F.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IL TUE. NOTICED THE ECMWF MODEL DOES
BRING LIGHT QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND GFS KEEPS QPF NNE OF CENTRAL IL SO WILL
STAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LESS THAN 15%. IL IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DURING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MS VALLEY DURING 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND. ECMWF (ECE) IS 10-15F WARMER THAN GFS (MEX)
BY NEXT FRI. STAYED CLOSE TO ALLBEND TEMPS DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU AND LOW
TO MID 60S FRI.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXPECTED TODAY AS NUMEROUS
VARIABLES HAVING A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS REGION. TO
THE NORTH...THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS AIDED BY PERSISTENT AREA OF
ASCENT ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/JET STREAK HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES BACK...WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH WARMING MUCH FASTER
(ASIDE FROM FEW LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY FOG). WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS CAA WILL ALSO
TEMPER HIGHS SOMEWHAT...WITH TEMPS STABILIZING OR FALLING SLIGHTLY
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HAVE WARMED FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES IN AREA
WITH LESS CLOUDS...BUT HAVE MAX TEMPS PEAK EARLIER AND THEN FALL A
BIT SOONER THAN CLIMO SUGGESTS. WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPS AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 18 PERCENT. WITH MARGINAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED...BUT WITH COOLER/MORE
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR WARNING AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
MCK AND GLD. A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLIER
TODAY BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE TAG PERIOD. A HIGH
LEVEL BROKEN DECK WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A MID
LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SOME SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...SUCH AS
THE SAME INDICATING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE AND THE LATEST NAM MOS SHOWING MVFR VIS...BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE CURRENT TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM/JJM
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXPECTED TODAY AS NUMEROUS
VARIABLES HAVING A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS REGION. TO
THE NORTH...THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS AIDED BY PERSISTENT AREA OF
ASCENT ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/JET STREAK HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES BACK...WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH WARMING MUCH FASTER
(ASIDE FROM FEW LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY FOG). WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS CAA WILL ALSO
TEMPER HIGHS SOMEWHAT...WITH TEMPS STABILIZING OR FALLING SLIGHTLY
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HAVE WARMED FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES IN AREA
WITH LESS CLOUDS...BUT HAVE MAX TEMPS PEAK EARLIER AND THEN FALL A
BIT SOONER THAN CLIMO SUGGESTS. WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPS AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 18 PERCENT. WITH MARGINAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED...BUT WITH COOLER/MORE
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR WARNING AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
AT KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR
SUNSET THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT KMCK...LIGHT WINDS
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY A LITTLE LATER AT KMCK. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
AT KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR
SUNSET THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT KMCK...LIGHT WINDS
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY A LITTLE LATER AT KMCK. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KMCK. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS EAST OF THE TERMINAL...AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE SHOWS NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VIS...SO NOT PLANNING ON ADDING MENTION TO 06Z
TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AT KGLD AND MIDDAY
FRIDAY AT KMCK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS 22-25KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF CLEARING HAS FILLED IN ACROSS REGION WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW TO REGION. ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AND POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR AND SAT PIX. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH
RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...THAT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. HENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
NAM AND GFS MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER RESTRICTED
TO LESS THAN 7 KFT AGL...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER WV-MD
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED A CONTINUED SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
LOWS TONIGHT NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
EVENTUAL WEAK WAA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL BE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPS AT 850MB
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS SAT.
ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAA. THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND INVERSIONS ARE VERY LOW. THIS WOULD
MEAN A DRY DAY BUT MORE CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...EAST OF KZZV.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE NEXT CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A MID WEEK LOW PRES SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1020 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY...WITH SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...BUT MAINTAIN MAINLY CLOUDY AND
CRISP CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF CLEARING INTO EASTERN OHIO WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT CHANGES MADE TO
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR STRANGE YELLOW BALL BEING SEEN ACROSS
PARTS OF REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN OR AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH
RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...THAT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. HENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
NAM AND GFS MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER RESTRICTED
TO LESS THAN 7 KFT AGL...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER WV-MD
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED A CONTINUED SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
LOWS TONIGHT NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
EVENTUAL WEAK WAA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL BE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPS AT 850MB
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS SAT.
ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAA. THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND INVERSIONS ARE VERY LOW. THIS WOULD
MEAN A DRY DAY BUT MORE CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...EAST OF KZZV.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE NEXT CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A MID WEEK LOW PRES SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
858 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY...WITH SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUIET THE WEATHER DOWN THIS WEEKEND...BUT MAINTAIN MAINLY CLOUDY
AND CRISP CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH
RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...THAT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. HENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
NAM AND GFS MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER RESTRICTED
TO LESS THAN 7 KFT AGL...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER WV-MD
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED A CONTINUED SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
LOWS TONIGHT NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
EVENTUAL WEAK WAA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL BE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPS AT 850MB
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS SAT.
ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAA. THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND INVERSIONS ARE VERY LOW. THIS WOULD
MEAN A DRY DAY BUT MORE CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...EAST OF KZZV.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE NEXT CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A MID WEEK LOW PRES SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
736 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME.
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY WILL COME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT RAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
CLOUD COVER ISSUES ARE THE MAIN POINT OF CONTENTION IN THE SHORT
TERM. STRATOCUMULUS IS ERODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME MID
CLOUDS ARE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME. NOT CONVINCED
WE WON/T SEE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT TONIGHT AS WEAK NORTH FLOW
CONTINUES. THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS WITH DELTA T/S IN
THE LOWER TEENS C. SO...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO BE MOVING THROUGH
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE UPSTREAM MID DECK IS FORECAST
TO DIVE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THAT LEAVES THE STRATOCU POSSIBILITY.
HAVE PLAYED THE FORECAST FOR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS THE
GUIDANCE IS ALL LEANING THAT DIRECTION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE STRATOCU SURGE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH THOUGH AS IT
IS NOVEMBER IN MICHIGAN.
AFTER TONIGHT...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING WILL MORE
FIRMLY BE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
MAINLY DRY WX WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND OF TEMPS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC OF
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER EVEN MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD
BE DRY.
TEMPS WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK WITH DRY WX
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
REACH THE 50S. A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
I DO NOT EXPECT A SOLID CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THAT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SINKING
SOUTH AND EAST OF HERE BY LATE SUNDAY. THAT SHOULD ENCOURAGE
CONSIDERABLE LAYERED CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS IS NOT AN EASY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. I AM CURRENTLY
FAVORING THE RAP MODEL AS IT SHOWS THE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BEST OF
ALL THE CURRENT MODELS. IT WOULD SUGGEST THE MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD
OVER THE SE CWA MOST OF THE EVENING WHILE THEY WILL STAY OUT OF
THE PICTURE NEAR THE AND WEST OF US-131. COULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS
BREAK OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR A TIME AS THE UPPER JET GET CORE
MOVES OVERHEAD BUT ONCE IT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF HERE BY 09Z OR
SO I EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN. THE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
CYCLONICLY CURVED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.L
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUT ON THE BIG LAKE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. WINDS SHOULD BE 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES WILL COME ON TUESDAY
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
ALL RIVER GAGING SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE WELL WITHIN BANK
AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT THE USGS PERCENT OF NORMAL PAGE MOST SITES
IN THE AREA ARE EITHER IN THE NORMAL CATEGORY OR ARE BEGINNING TO
DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT FRIDAY
IS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE TUES-WED TIME FRAME. THIS
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT AFFECT RIVER LEVELS OR
CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BILLINGS MT
830 PM MDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BIT OF WARM FRONT LIKE LIFT TO THE CENTRAL
ZONES AS IT MOVES OVER A COOLER AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MONTANA. LIFT EVENTUALLY WILL BE REPLACE BY A DOWNSLOPISH WESTERLY
FLOW BUT UNTIL THEN THE HRRR AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. UPDATED FORECAST TO
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE MOST FAVORED IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT FORECAST MINIMUMS. BORSUM
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD...SO USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE
FORECAST. SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW MT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING E INTO THE AREA ON PACIFIC FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PUSH SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE SE
ZONES ON SUN...DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
AREA. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WILL REMAIN E OF THE AREA. MODELS
SHOWED LIMITED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAD
MAINLY MOUNTAIN POPS TONIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER AREAS AWAY
FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SUN. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP FROM KBIL W TONIGHT. IT WILL BECOME WINDY FROM
THE W AND NW ON SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUFKIT
SHOWED MIXING DOWN OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY E OF
KBIL...SO HAVE REFLECTED THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE GRIDS. MIXING
SUPPORTED THE GOING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE MIXING WILL BE TO ONLY 800 MB. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS INDICATED THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE FAR
NE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH FURTHER W TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SUN MORNING...SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS CLOUD COVER IN THE SKY
GRIDS. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER AREAS MAINLY E OF KBIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT BEFORE FAST
PACIFIC FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION AGAIN ON MON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON MON...PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SUN SYSTEM ON SUN NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE ON SUN NIGHT
WILL CAUSE A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. AT THIS TIME...THE ORIENTATION
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DID NOT SUPPORT A WIND HIGHLIGHT. IT WILL
BE WINDY AND WARM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MIXING WILL BE TO NEAR 700 MB EXCEPT A BIT LOWER IN THE FAR
E. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. MIN TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
CONFIDENCE IN A SHARP CHANGE TO COLD WEATHER WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
FROM FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS INCREASING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A COUPLE
KEY DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CARRY
A 500-HPA TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN THAT PERIOD...IT/S
IMPORTANT FOR US TO STRESS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THIS
WHOLE PATTERN CHANGE. THUS...WHILE WE ARE ADVERTISING THE RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BY NEXT FRI AND SAT...WE HAVE DECIDED TO AVOID
GETTING INTO MUCH DETAIL IN OUTLOOKS AND RELATED ITEMS FOR NOW. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT PART OF THE ATTENTION-GRABBER IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE RAPID SLIDE FROM HIGHS ON WED...WHEN MID AND UPPER 60S
F ARE NOW ADVERTISED. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT WESTERLY
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 850-HPA TEMPERATURES
OF +13 TO +16 C. OUR FORECAST LAGGED THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE BY AT LEAST 5 F...AND IN A CASE LIKE THIS MOS NUMBERS ARE
LIKELY POORLY INFLUENCED BY CLIMATOLOGY TO BEGIN WITH. THUS...EVEN
THOUGH WE INCREASED WED HIGHS BY ABOUT 10 F IN MOST AREAS...WE MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL. IN CONTRAST...WE MAY BE TOO WARM WITH HIGHS FOR
THU...WHEN THE 12 UTC MODELS ALL SHOW EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH
ARE APT TO ALLOW SHALLOW COOL AIR TO BACK INTO THE AREA.
WHERE FRI AND SAT ARE CONCERNED...THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE RELATIVE
MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY /RMOP/ VALUES TIED TO THE 500-HPA TROUGH
INCREASED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12 UTC
GFS CLOSES OFF A 500-HPA LOW OVER WY /AND THUS GENERATES A DYNAMIC
AND SLOW-MOVING WINTER STORM OVER THE REGION/...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THAT MID-LEVEL LOW. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECAUSE
ITS DYNAMICS ARE THUS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THAT IS MERELY A
GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE SUBTLE SYNOPTIC INTERACTIONS THAT ARE FAR FROM
BEING IRONED OUT...BUT WHICH COULD GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST.
NOTE THOUGH THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS PRESENT SNOW FOR FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...AND THERE IS MODEST CLUSTERING WITH GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR MOISTURE IN THAT PERIOD TOO...SO THAT MAY BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR
ANY ACCUMULATIONS. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MAY CREEP BACK INTO KBHK AND KMLS TONIGHT PER
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE LOWER CIGS
WILL END WITH A SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. A PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM KBIL EASTWARD WHERE LOCAL MVFR DUE TO THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY AT KBHK
AS WELL. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KLVM TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 KTS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/058 043/063 041/061 042/067 038/045 033/033 018/020
21/N 00/N 10/B 00/B 12/W 35/S 54/S
LVM 039/057 043/065 040/062 038/063 035/044 030/031 014/018
22/W 01/N 00/N 00/N 24/W 66/S 54/S
HDN 039/061 039/065 039/061 039/069 037/049 033/040 021/024
22/W 00/N 10/B 00/B 11/B 35/O 55/S
MLS 035/052 035/061 036/055 040/065 038/046 033/039 022/023
32/W 00/B 11/B 10/B 12/W 34/O 55/S
4BQ 035/058 037/062 039/059 038/066 036/051 033/046 024/026
22/W 00/B 10/B 10/B 10/B 23/R 55/S
BHK 031/050 032/060 036/053 037/060 035/044 030/037 021/027
32/W 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 23/S 55/S
SHR 036/058 037/064 038/063 038/068 035/051 032/045 020/023
12/W 10/B 10/B 00/U 10/B 23/O 54/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
UPDATE TO ZFP WITH NO UPDATE TO WRKAFP. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WAS
OVER S SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WATER
VAPOR AND RADAR ALSO SHOWED A WAVE ROTATING TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA FROM N CENTRAL MT WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LATEST
WRF AND RAP MODELS KEPT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 850-700 MB MOISTURE AND 100-200 J/KG CAPE. THUS HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERED OFF THE POPS FROM W TO E THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECTED MIXING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES UNTIL
AROUND DAY 7. THE GENERAL WEATHER SET UP FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK IS A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST AND DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE THAT TRACKS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY PRODUCING COOLER TEMPS...BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SEASONABLY MILD. 500MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO LOWER AROUND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST AND
DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THOUGH AS WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE PROGGS SHOW COLDER AIR AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTER
SOLUTION. WHILE I EXPECT TO SEE THE TIMING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODEL CYCLES AS THIS IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...IT DOES SEEM THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO SOMETHING. HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER
POPS FOR DAYS 7 AND 8 AT THIS TIME. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THIS EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LOCALIZED TO
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 033/057 042/058 044/064 046/059 041/058 039/055
2/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 11/B 00/B 22/W
LVM 054 030/057 037/058 044/063 043/062 038/060 037/053
1/E 11/B 21/N 01/N 12/W 01/B 24/W
HDN 060 029/059 037/060 039/066 043/058 037/060 036/058
2/W 11/B 02/W 10/B 12/W 11/B 11/B
MLS 053 029/053 036/055 035/061 040/054 035/054 035/052
3/W 21/B 02/W 10/B 11/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 057 029/057 033/057 037/061 042/056 037/059 036/054
2/W 21/B 02/W 10/B 00/B 11/B 10/B
BHK 053 028/052 032/053 031/055 037/052 032/052 032/047
3/W 21/B 02/W 11/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
SHR 057 030/057 035/057 037/061 040/060 037/061 035/060
1/B 11/B 01/B 00/B 01/U 00/B 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
532 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. THE ONLY POINT OF INTEREST IS THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF. A NARROW LINGERING MVFR CEILING JUST
SHY OF 2K IS IN THE KEARNEY AREA...AND MAY SLIP INTO KGRI EARLY
THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS TO GET A FEEL FOR JUST
HOW IT IS MOVING. FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO PERIOD OF A BRIEF
CEILING EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA. THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THIN BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ARE ALSO
NOTED...WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. THIS SATURATION HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000FT AGL PERSIST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DPVA AND MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS PRESENTING LITTLE IF ANY
OMEGA TO OUR AREA ONCE IT NEARS THE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD
DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. ALSO...THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BEING
USHERED INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE ALSO DISSIPATES. GIVEN AL THIS...A
CLEARING TREND SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT STRATUS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA 06Z ONWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND THE INFLUX OF A COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFILTRATES THE
REGION...WILL PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
~30-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. MET/NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND OPTED TO PLAY CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...WHICH PRESENTS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-20S TO
THE MID-30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS ALLOWING FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SATURDAY TEMPERATURE-RISES ON THE ORDER OF
25-30 DEGREES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH PRESENTS SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST DAYS WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES IT SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA...AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS IOWA AND
NEBRASKA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. WE CAME VERY CLOSE TO
PULLING THE SPRINKLES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE.
SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE IN THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SFC WIND WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF MORE SPRINKLES. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB MAY FALL TO
AROUND 0C ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BE A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ARE ALSO
NOTED...WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. THIS SATURATION HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000FT AGL PERSIST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DPVA AND MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS PRESENTING LITTLE IF ANY
OMEGA TO OUR AREA ONCE IT NEARS THE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD
DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. ALSO...THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BEING
USHERED INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE ALSO DISSIPATES. GIVEN AL THIS...A
CLEARING TREND SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT STRATUS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA 06Z ONWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND THE INFLUX OF A COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFILTRATES THE
REGION...WILL PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
~30-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. MET/NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND OPTED TO PLAY CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...WHICH PRESENTS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-20S TO
THE MID-30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS ALLOWING FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SATURDAY TEMPERATURE-RISES ON THE ORDER OF
25-30 DEGREES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH PRESENTS SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST DAYS WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES IT SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA...AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS IOWA AND
NEBRASKA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. WE CAME VERY CLOSE TO
PULLING THE SPRINKLES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE.
SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE IN THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SFC WIND WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF MORE SPRINKLES. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB MAY FALL TO
AROUND 0C ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BE A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1244 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE...MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. ALSO...INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS A
TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND
DECREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A TOUCH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ARE NOW FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN-HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S STILL
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
UPDATE... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG-WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER OVER NEVADA...ARE
ALSO NOTED. ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
NEVADA...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA.
THIS SATURATION HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE
200-500FT AGL RANGE. MODEST POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EAST OF THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING PROMOTE VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S. FOG IS
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THAT BEING SAID...FOG
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE VISIBILITY IMPROVING
INTO THE 5-10SM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE SKY COVER AND PERHAPS QUICK SHOTS AT VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING UP.
WE START TODAY OFF WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PLENTY OF CIRRUS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SKY COVER HERE
AND THERE. ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOWING UP WITHIN
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA.
EARLIER...ORD WAS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UP TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES ON THE NEBRASKA
SIDE...WITH AN EXCEPTION HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN TRANSITION FOR US TODAY AS A RIDGE SLIPS TO
THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO OUR AREA. I HAVE
DECREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE INCREASED SKY COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WILL ALLOW A GENERAL CLEARING OF HIGH LEVEL SKY
CLOUDINESS.
THEN WE GET INTO A SCENARIO OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A FOCUS OF ENERGY FARTHER NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND...THE MOST I WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IS SPRINKLES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CWA AS THESE
WAVES MOVE BY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KANSAS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1244 PM UPDATE/AVIATION/1014 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
UPDATE... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG-WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER OVER NEVADA...ARE
ALSO NOTED. ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
NEVADA...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA.
THIS SATURATION HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE
200-500FT AGL RANGE. MODEST POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EAST OF THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING PROMOTE VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S. FOG IS
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THAT BEING SAID...FOG
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE VISIBILITY IMPROVING
INTO THE 5-10SM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE SKY COVER AND PERHAPS QUICK SHOTS AT VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING UP.
WE START TODAY OFF WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PLENTY OF CIRRUS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SKY COVER HERE
AND THERE. ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOWING UP WITHIN
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA.
EARLIER...ORD WAS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UP TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES ON THE NEBRASKA
SIDE...WITH AN EXCEPTION HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN TRANSITION FOR US TODAY AS A RIDGE SLIPS TO
THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO OUR AREA. I HAVE
DECREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE INCREASED SKY COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WILL ALLOW A GENERAL CLEARING OF HIGH LEVEL SKY
CLOUDINESS.
THEN WE GET INTO A SCENARIO OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A FOCUS OF ENERGY FARTHER NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND...THE MOST I WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IS SPRINKLES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CWA AS THESE
WAVES MOVE BY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KANSAS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1014 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG-WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVES...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER OVER
NEVADA...ARE ALSO NOTED. ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A RESULT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
NEVADA...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA.
THIS SATURATION HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE
200-500FT AGL RANGE. MODEST POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EAST OF THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING PROMOTE VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S. FOG IS
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THAT BEING SAID...FOG
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE VISIBILITY IMPROVING
INTO THE 5-10SM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED BY SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST THIS
MORNING BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THIS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE SKY COVER AND PERHAPS QUICK SHOTS AT VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING UP.
WE START TODAY OFF WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PLENTY OF CIRRUS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SKY COVER HERE
AND THERE. ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOWING UP WITHIN LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA.
EARLIER...ORD WAS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UP TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE...WITH
AN EXCEPTION HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN TRANSITION FOR US TODAY AS A RIDGE SLIPS TO
THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO OUR AREA. I HAVE
DECREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE INCREASED SKY COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WILL ALLOW A GENERAL CLEARING OF HIGH LEVEL SKY
CLOUDINESS.
THEN WE GET INTO A SCENARIO OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A FOCUS OF ENERGY FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. ALSO...LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WITH THESE THINGS
IN MIND...THE MOST I WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IS SPRINKLES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CWA AS THESE WAVES
MOVE BY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KANSAS WILL ALLOW FOR EAST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FROM THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
TONIGHT AS THE GENERAL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEING DEEP INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
/FORMALLY KNOWN AS SANDY/ REMAINING OVER ONTARIO...KEEPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH RIDGING ON THE WEST COAST. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SEEN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WAS SEEN FROM THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. LOCALLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS
OVER EASTERN WYOMING...WITH A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AGAIN
WAS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS LED TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. THIS AREA WAS FAIRLY NARROW AFFECTION LOCATIONS
BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 83 AND 281.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH FOG/STRATUS AND ITS
DISSIPATION TODAY...LEADING TO QUESTIONABLE HIGHS. ALSO...SEVERAL
FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FOG/STRATUS ON THURSDAY MORNING STAYED IN PLACE THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN. AS THIS
MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED INTO VERY LOW CEILINGS AGAIN THIS
MORNING...DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AM
QUITE CONCERNED WITH THE SPEED OF DISSIPATION TODAY. THE MODELS
THAT HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS MOISTURE DO PUSH IT OUT BY 18Z...AND
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS...BELIEVE THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT
EAST AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND GET CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH. DID
ADJUST TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND
LONGER...BUT MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
THE EAST COAST TROUGH /WHICH MODELS ARE SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST/
WILL DIVERT THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...SO IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IOWA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. BELIEVE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT IF THE LONG-WAVE STAYS
FURTHER WEST THE SHORTWAVE COULD TRAVEL MORE SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET RAIN WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT THE MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION SO AGAIN...HAVE A DRY FORECAST.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL COME FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM...MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY
OVER NEBRASKA SO IF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION...THIS WOULD BE THE SYSTEM TO DO IT. HOWEVER...THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET WOULD KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THOUGHT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE WARM-AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY SO
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE ATTAINABLE EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA DIGS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AS A
STRONG RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST. AS WAS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN SO
HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COMES...THE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING BACK TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...IN
THE 60S TO POSSIBLY 70S. DON/T HAVE 70S IN THE FORECAST YET BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED IN COMING FORECASTS. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS...DRY AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE SO NO FURTHER RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING WITH VSBYS DOWN AS LOW AS 3SM AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND 5SM
AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND RAP SOLNS...THE THREAT FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF STRATUS
AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION
OF STRATUS TILL NEAR FCST ISSUANCE AND WAIT TO SEE IF IT SPREADS
SOUTH INTO NRN NEBRASKA FROM SRN SD. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
BROKEN CIGS AOA 20000 FT AGL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1127 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY YIELD TO HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER LAKES TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...BUT THEN END SUNDAY AS MORNING CLOUDS
GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS LATE EVENING DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKES AND INLAND AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW.
A SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEARING THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE TIME TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY.
LATER TONIGHT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RAP WARM THE 700-850MB
LAYER...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES BENEATH THIS LAYER -6C TO -8C.
WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILES WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THIS
PROFILE SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO FALL AS A LIGHT SLEET OR DRIZZLE.
FORTUNATELY...THE SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE PROBLEM THIS POSES...IS THAT AS THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW AND WILL JUST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TO MID 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO MAKE A
MEANINGFUL PUSH INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS...A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF
SUN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THESE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT LONG.
HOWEVER...THE DRYING AIR SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS A DRY AIR MASS GAINS
CONTROL INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...COURTESY OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR LAKE RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN WEAK NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH OVERALL DRY AMBIENT AIR AND RELATIVELY LOW LAKE
DELTA T/S WOULD SUGGEST ONLY AN INCREASE IN LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ENSURING A FAIR...ALBEIT CHILLY DAYS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONAL
FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS APART FROM SOME DIURNAL
STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6C WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES LOOK A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NO
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A
DEEP NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM WILL EVOLVE IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. 12Z GFS
FASTER IN MOVING THE COASTAL STORM NORTHWARD THAN THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED LEFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED MODEL
DIFFERENCES...STILL FEEL THAT WESTERN NEW YORK WILL HAVE A LIMITED
PRECIPITATION OR WIND THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COUNTRY COULD STILL HAVE SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCUMULATING
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS AND A WIND POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM STILL
BEARS WATCHING FOR THAT PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT...A BURGEONING PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW COMBINED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL PROMOTE QUICKLY BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 03Z VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW. MUCH OF THE TAF REGION IS DRY WITH JUST VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR KART LATER
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE THE TAF SITES DRY.
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BECOME VFR
EARLY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO
THE REGION. THOUGH VFR...EXPECT A LOW CIG IN THE VFR FLIGHT RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LIFTING HIGHER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
FROM NEAR HAMLIN BEACH TO THE EASTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES FALLING TO
BELOW SCA BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...AND
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
746 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY YIELD TO HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT THEN END SUNDAY AS MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING DISPLAYING JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WITH SFC OBS CONFIRMING BOTH LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW PRESENT.
ACTIVITY IS MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW...AND SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE NEARING LAKE ONTARIO IS PROVIDING FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION.
LATER TONIGHT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RAP WARM THE 700-850MB
LAYER...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES BENEATH THIS LAYER -6C TO -8C.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO FALL AS A LIGHT SLEET OR DRIZZLE.
FORTUNATELY...THE SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE PROBLEM THIS POSES...IS THAT IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS FAR SHY OF ANY HEADLINES...BUT
IT WARRANT MONITORING OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR WILL HANG IN A BIT
LONGER TO THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS EITHER RAIN OR
SNOW.
IN GENERAL...FEEL MOS NUMBERS ARE TOO COLD FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS...WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKES NORTH OF
I-90 AND WEST OF I-81 LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
SAID...ANY LOCALIZED CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST.
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO MAKE A
MEANINGFUL PUSH INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS...A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF
SUN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THESE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT LONG.
HOWEVER...THE DRYING AIR SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS A DRY AIR MASS GAINS
CONTROL INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...COURTESY OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR LAKE RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN WEAK NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH OVERALL DRY AMBIENT AIR AND RELATIVELY LOW LAKE
DELTA T/S WOULD SUGGEST ONLY AN INCREASE IN LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ENSURING A FAIR...ALBEIT CHILLY DAYS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONAL
FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS APART FROM SOME DIURNAL
STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6C WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES LOOK A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NO
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A
DEEP NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM WILL EVOLVE IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. 12Z GFS
FASTER IN MOVING THE COASTAL STORM NORTHWARD THAN THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED LEFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED MODEL
DIFFERENCES...STILL FEEL THAT WESTERN NEW YORK WILL HAVE A LIMITED
PRECIPITATION OR WIND THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COUNTRY COULD STILL HAVE SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCUMULATING
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS AND A WIND POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM STILL
BEARS WATCHING FOR THAT PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT...A BURGEONING PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW COMBINED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL PROMOTE QUICKLY BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES THAT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FINE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION WILL END FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND LATER ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE
LAKE.
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TOWARDS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR EARLY SUNDAY
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH VFR...EXPECT A LOW CIG IN THE VFR FLIGHT RANGE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LIFTING HIGHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ON LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS MAINTAINING SOME 5 FOOT WAVES ON ITS SOUTH SHORES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED.
AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...AND
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OUR WRITTEN OCTOBER CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE CLM PRODUCT ON OUR WEBPAGE UNDER LOCAL
CLIMATE. SOME HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE:
FOR BUFFALO WE HAD THE 2ND MOST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DAYS IN
OCTOBER`S RECORDED HISTORY (SINCE 1871) WITH 22 OF THE 31 DAYS
MEASURING PRECIPITATION. THE ALL-TIME RECORD WAS SET BACK IN 1890
WITH 25 DAYS. FOR A 6TH STRAIGHT MONTH WE HAD A MONTH FINISH WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH BUFFALO`S 52.2F SETTING THE MONTH
1.4F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR ROCHESTER WE HAD A TIE FOR 6TH GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH 18 DAYS. THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER IS 21 DAYS WHICH WAS SET BACK IN THE YEAR 1988. LIKE BUFFALO
ROCHESTER ALSO HAS HAD 6 STRAIGHT MONTHS FINISH WITH ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH. THE 52.8F DEGREES WAS 2.2F ABOVE THE NORM.
OVER AN 8 DAY PERIOD...OCTOBER 26TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 2ND...BUFFALO
HAS RECEIVED AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THESE 8
CONSECUTIVE DAYS TIES A RECORD FOR GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THE LAST
OCCURRENCE WAS IN JANUARY 1999.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
818 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
ONCE AGAIN...QUITE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
AROUND FREEZING...AND JUST AS MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 35 DEGREES. ONE
OBSERVATION FROM SILER CITY NOTED 28 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE RURAL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE PRIMARILY OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
85KT 500MB JET...AND THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU
SURFACE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A VERY MODEST
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO NEAR THE -10C LEVEL ON ITS BUFR SOUNDINGS
PARTICULARLY TOWARD KRDU AND AREAS NORTH. THE LATEST HRRR WRF SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ECHOES TOWARD THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE GFS ACTUALLY FORECASTS THE BEST
COMBINATION OF HIGHER 700MB MOISTURE AND 850MB MOISTURE BETWEEN
ABOUT 15Z AND 18Z. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
THE SURFACE FRONT...THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY FROM KTDF TO
KIXA OR SO LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART. FOLLOWING
THAT...THERE LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM NEAR 20
MPH...POSSIBLY TO 25 MPH AS THE 925MB WINDS WILL BE IN THAT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PLAN TO FORECAST HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE...55 TO 60 NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH...WARMEST
IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER TONIGHT THAN MANY OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NAM AND
GFS AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB...AND SLIGHTLY GREATER WINDS
NEAR THE INVERSION WHICH COULD PROMPT JUST A TOUCH BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING. UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH A FEW MID- OR
MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED WEST
LATE...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FROST
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN SHELTERED AND RURAL AREAS. COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES AND WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO COORDINATE ANY
HEADLINES AND THE STATUS OF FROST AND FREEZE ISSUANCES IN TIME FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY...AS K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE AND WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-
AND MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE GENERALLY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN MOST
OF THE PARAMETERS SAVE THE MOISTURE. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SUPPORT FOR LIFT IN PRESSURE LEVEL OR ISENTROPIC FIELDS...AND THE
GFS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS...DOES NOT PROVIDE FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM
HAS MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING 850MB THETA-E...
AND INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
AN INCH...COMPARED TO THE 0.75 INCH AVERAGE OF THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK AS WELL...BUT IT
IS HARD TO IGNORE THE VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE NAM...AS
WELL AS THE LIGHT QPF FORECAST BY THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST
SREF. AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF
U.S. 1 AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF FOR NOW UNDER A TENTH-INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...EXCEPT FLIRTING WITH THE LOWER 30S IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL WEAKEN WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING
FROM AR TO GA. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO SC
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS MORE QPF OVER CENTRAL NC
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-FRONTAL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS RATHER WEAK AND BRIEF...SO PREFER TO KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
NORTH....MORE LIKE THE ECMWF/NAM. TEMPS ARE ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN
SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE PRECIP...AND
THIS IS MANIFEST IN A WIDE RANGE IN THE SREF MEMBERS. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH TO UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LACK OF PRECIP AND POTENTIAL
FOR BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD CAUSE TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO BE
HIGHER. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR NOW...WITH
57-67 NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LARGE 1025MB+ HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER
SC/GA. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DIGGING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LEAD TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SC COAST TUESDAY THAT DEEPENS TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A NOR`EASTER AS
YET ANOTHER PIECE OF POLAR ENERGY LINKS UP WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WOULD
TRACK. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...MOVING AWAY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VIRGA PARTICULARLY TOWARD
THE VIRGINIA BORDER. AFTER THE CLOUDS DEPART...THERE SHOULD BE
PERIODS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 20KT UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING SUBSIDES LATE IN THE DAY.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT
CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY OF AVIATION CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. THE POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
ONCE AGAIN...QUITE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
AROUND FREEZING...AND JUST AS MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 35 DEGREES. ONE
OBSERVATION FROM SILER CITY NOTED 28 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE RURAL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE PRIMARILY OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
85KT 500MB JET...AND THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU
SURFACE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A VERY MODEST
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO NEAR THE -10C LEVEL ON ITS BUFR SOUNDINGS
PARTICULARLY TOWARD KRDU AND AREAS NORTH. THE LATEST HRRR WRF SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ECHOES TOWARD THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE GFS ACTUALLY FORECASTS THE BEST
COMBINATION OF HIGHER 700MB MOISTURE AND 850MB MOISTURE BETWEEN
ABOUT 15Z AND 18Z. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
THE SURFACE FRONT...THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY FROM KTDF TO
KIXA OR SO LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART. FOLLOWING
THAT...THERE LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM NEAR 20
MPH...POSSIBLY TO 25 MPH AS THE 925MB WINDS WILL BE IN THAT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PLAN TO FORECAST HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE...55 TO 60 NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH...WARMEST
IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER TONIGHT THAN MANY OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NAM AND
GFS AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB...AND SLIGHTLY GREATER WINDS
NEAR THE INVERSION WHICH COULD PROMPT JUST A TOUCH BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING. UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH A FEW MID- OR
MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED WEST
LATE...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FROST
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN SHELTERED AND RURAL AREAS. COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES AND WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO COORDINATE ANY
HEADLINES AND THE STATUS OF FROST AND FREEZE ISSUANCES IN TIME FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY...AS K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE AND WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-
AND MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE GENERALLY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN MOST
OF THE PARAMETERS SAVE THE MOISTURE. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SUPPORT FOR LIFT IN PRESSURE LEVEL OR ISENTROPIC FIELDS...AND THE
GFS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS...DOES NOT PROVIDE FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM
HAS MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING 850MB THETA-E...
AND INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
AN INCH...COMPARED TO THE 0.75 INCH AVERAGE OF THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK AS WELL...BUT IT
IS HARD TO IGNORE THE VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE NAM...AS
WELL AS THE LIGHT QPF FORECAST BY THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST
SREF. AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF
U.S. 1 AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF FOR NOW UNDER A TENTH-INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...EXCEPT FLIRTING WITH THE LOWER 30S IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL WEAKEN WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING
FROM AR TO GA. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO SC
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS MORE QPF OVER CENTRAL NC
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-FRONTAL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS RATHER WEAK AND BRIEF...SO PREFER TO KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
NORTH....MORE LIKE THE ECMWF/NAM. TEMPS ARE ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN
SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE PRECIP...AND
THIS IS MANIFEST IN A WIDE RANGE IN THE SREF MEMBERS. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH TO UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LACK OF PRECIP AND POTENTIAL
FOR BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD CAUSE TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO BE
HIGHER. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR NOW...WITH
57-67 NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LARGE 1025MB+ HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER
SC/GA. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DIGGING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LEAD TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SC COAST TUESDAY THAT DEEPENS TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A NOR`EASTER AS
YET ANOTHER PIECE OF POLAR ENERGY LINKS UP WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WOULD
TRACK. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...MOVING AWAY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VIRGA PARTICULARLY TOWARD
THE VIRGINIA BORDER. AFTER THE CLOUDS DEPART...THERE SHOULD BE
PERIODS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 20KT UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING SUBSIDES LATE IN THE DAY.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT
CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY OF AVIATION CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. THE POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
024>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS/DJF/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
823 PM PDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COAST THIS
EVENING AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
THE COASTAL HEADLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. INLAND...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY ONLY SPREAD INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
FRONTAL POSITION AND AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SO
HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RUN AND HAVE
INCREASED THE AREAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY.
MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG TO A
MINIMUM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH
THOUGH SO EXPECT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG FOR MOST INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE OREGON COAST
TONIGHT WITH A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THE
RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR. BUT, LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS IN JACKSON, NORTHERN KLAMATH AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTIES AS WELL AS AREAS OF OBSCURATIONS OVER WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE CASCADES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AROUND 18Z ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
MVFR AT THE COAST AND DISSIPATE INLAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM PDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA WITH RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION BEING CONFINED TO COOS AND
NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES. HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BECAUSE OF THAT KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IF THERE`S
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THEN THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL BE LESS. ANY VALLEY FOG SHOULD
BREAK UP FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF THE CASCADES.
MEANWHILE SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INVERSION IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WITH FOG
LIKELY LATE AT NIGHT INTO MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. ABOVE
THE FOG LAYER...TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET INTO THE 70S AND IN
THE 60S IN THE VALLEY DUE TO THE FOG/LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL AND LITTLE
IF ANY AFTERNOON MIXING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING INT THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. -PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODEL...ENSEMBLE...AND REFORECAST ANALOG SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TOWARDS
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING SHARPLY COOLER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WETTER BY THURSDAY. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF COOLING AT THE 850MB ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...GENERATING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN BOTH WEST AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS...CLOSER TO THE
LOW CENTER DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ARRIVES THURSDAY. WE HAVE
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY...AND WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 4000 FEET...WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON
SOME MOUNTAIN PASSES. A TRANSITION TOWARD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OCCURS ON FRIDAY...BUT COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S WEST OF
THE CASCADES AND 30S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS WOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL THUS FAR. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT AFTER BRIEF DRYING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR 150W WOULD PLACE OUR
FORECAST AREA IN A CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. -KEENE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1053 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
AREA OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER FROM KPHP-K2WX THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 1/2 MILE ALONG NOTHERN
AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. 00Z
NAM/00Z RAP KEEP BL-875MB WINDS E-NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHEAST IN THE RAPID CITY AREA...WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. THE NARROW AXIS OF LOW
CIGS/FOG FROM KICR-KRAP/KPHP-K2WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. 18Z NAM/21Z RUC SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS MIGHT REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 108W HAS SHARPEND AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE. IT WILL DIG
SE WARD ON FRIDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS
PRODUCED HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE OUR STRATUS AND FOG LAYER TODAY WITH
THE FIRST WAVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND
WAVE GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURGES OF COOLER AIR WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK WIND SHIFTS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THIS AFTERNOONS RETARDED TEMPERATURE RISE.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR BUTTE-CUSTER CO
PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
247 PM PDT Fri Nov 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A drying and warming trend will slowly return to much of the
Columbia Basin courtesy of a strengthening ridge of high pressure.
Weak systems brushing the ridge will bring some light rain at
times to the Cascades and mountains near the Canadian border.
Much cooler and unsettled weather will likely arrive by the end of
the week. Temperatures will likely be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow...Satellite and radar data from this
afternoon indicated an occluded front spreading rain into
southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. Models agree that this
front will stretch and weaken as it moves east of the Cascades
tonight with chances for measurable rain decreasing quickly east
of the Cascades. However models do show some differences as to how
quickly this rain will taper off. The NAM shows 850mb winds
backing to the south-southeast with rain spreading into Wenatchee
early this evening with a quarter inch of rain...while GFS/ECMWF
only have .02-.04 inches for Wenatchee. With HRRR also supporting
the GFS/ECMWF forecast was weighted strongly towards the GFS/ECMWF
solution. These solutions supports around a tenth of an inch of
rain for the East Slopes of the Cascades tonight, a few
hundredths for the Wenatchee area, Okanogan Valley, and northern
mountains, with sprinkles elsewhere.
The next wave noted on water vapor satellite near 40N/150W as of 2
PM today will move rapidly east with a moist zonal flow across
the area on Saturday. Most of the energy from this wave will move
north across southern British Columbia with the westerly flow
Saturday rain and high mountain snow along the Cascade
crest...with a secondary max in precipitation chances over the
mountains of NE Washington and North Idaho. Any rain that falls on
Saturday away from the Cascade crest will be light with amounts
less than a tenth of an inch. JW
Saturday night through Monday...Model guidance in fairly good
agreement that a dirty ridge axis will remain fixed over the
Inland NW through most of this period. The ridge promises to keep
plenty of clouds and moisture locked over the region...however
precipitation chances will become lower with time from south to
north as the pattern buckles slightly on Sunday and Monday with a
very strong upper level low shifting into the Gulf of Alaska. The
models have been having difficulties timing the drying trend. The
12z NAM suggested the warm front would deliver widespread rain to
most of the forecast area on Sunday and this notion had some
support from the SREF. Now the NAM has backed off on that scenario
and joined other drier models which kept the bulk of the
precipitation focused near the north Cascade Crest and over
locations just south of the Canadian border through Sunday night.
Precipitation amounts from the front will be light...much less
than a tenth of an inch in most cases. Meanwhile...snow levels
will remain higher than all but the highest mountain peaks. ..so
winter travel conditions are not expected. By Monday...the warm
front will move into BC...while the trailing cold front will push
into the north Cascades and NE Washington by late in the day. The
front is expected to weaken significantly as another low deepens
over the Gulf of Alaska. Again most of the precipitation from this
front should be focused near the north Cascades and northern WA/ID
mountains. Precipitation amounts will still be light.
As for temperatures...the warm front will continue to deliver
unseasonably mild temperatures with daytime highs surging well
into the 50s to lower 60s...with nighttime lows holding well above
freezing. Monday`s cold front could take a few degrees off the
high temperatures...however the weaker the front, the less likely
that cooling will occur. Fog could become Sunday night/Monday
south of highway 2 as the mid/upper clouds begin to thin. If fog
does become widespread and thick it would have a dramatic impact
on the temperatures...and we would fall well short of the forecast
high temperatures on Monday. The mid 50s to mid 60s in the
forecast could easily turn out being about 10 degrees too warm. fx
Monday night through Friday...Interval starts out with very low
amplitude ridge that is easily over-topped with moisture rich
disturbances that flattens out and becomes more zonal on Tuesday
and by Wednesday a larger area of low pressure drops down from the
Gulf of Alaska in a northwest to southeast trajectory and pushes
the moisture rich jet stream to the south and east into and
through the weekend. The above scenario should result in a
generally cloudy forecast with a rain shadow keeping some of the
lowlands in the lee of the Cascade crest dry Monday night into
Wednesday evening with the periphery or mountain areas up north and
in Northern Idaho holding onto varying pop for mostly rain as snow
levels remain well above what would be considered lodge level
(well above 3800-4800 ft MSL). The moisture rich baroclinic band
oriented alongside the jet stream sags southeast through the area
but the flow now appears in the models as having too much of a
southwest orientation...and as such the lee side rain-shadow will
work to inhibit precipitation processes for much of lowland
Eastern Washington while pops in north Idaho may continue to hold
a substantial increase and QPF amounts in the forecast may show an
increase as well. By either late Thursday or Friday the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass to the north of the jet stream
should be overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho with
weak southwest flow at lower levels thus a transition to further
decreased pops and qpf and precipitation depicted as a more
showery type with low snow levels (low wet bulb zero heights with
the conditionally unstable air-mass could allow for snow to reach
many valley locations but it would depend on time of day and
pavement temperatures as to how long it would linger on surfaces)
Temperatures near or slightly on the warm side of normal into
Wednesday still make sense considering the jet stream placement is
either north of the area or overhead and the cooling trend
afterword with the jet stream to the south and cooler
conditionally unstable air-mass overhead for later Thursday and
Friday. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Currently clouds are on the increase for sites closer to
th Cascades while the eastern TAF sites begin to clear out. Have a
chance for VCSH for EAT around 02Z as a weak system moves over the
Cascade crest. As the system moves to the east..only expect clouds
for eastern TAF sites. Lowered CIGS to MVFR for KSFF and KGEG sites
as the system moves from east to west. Have included fog for sites
KEAT..KMWH..KCOE and KLWS but confidence is low as to whether cloud
cover could limit this. Due to fog went ahead and lowerd VIS to
have IFR conditions for identified sites. /Fliehman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 55 44 56 45 59 / 10 20 20 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 41 54 43 56 44 58 / 10 30 30 20 10 10
Pullman 44 58 45 57 46 62 / 10 20 10 20 10 0
Lewiston 44 60 47 61 48 64 / 0 10 10 20 0 0
Colville 44 54 43 57 43 61 / 30 40 40 40 20 20
Sandpoint 42 52 44 54 41 58 / 10 50 60 50 20 20
Kellogg 38 47 42 50 43 55 / 0 30 30 30 10 20
Moses Lake 42 58 45 61 45 60 / 20 20 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 44 55 48 61 46 59 / 50 20 10 10 10 10
Omak 45 55 44 59 43 59 / 40 30 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE CWA AS OF 1630Z AND WERE
CURRENTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012/...
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CHADRON REMAINS DOWN IN VLIFR FOG/STRATUS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
TO BREAK UP THE FOG AROUND THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
MONTANA WITH MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR CASPER AND
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. KCDR
HAS REPORTED SOME FOG OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EXPERIENCING WEAK
NORTHEAST FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES LIFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY
THROUGH 15Z...SO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER THE FROPA AND WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 700MB TEMPS
AT -1C (DOWN FROM 5C THIS PAST AFTN). PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 30 KTS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LLVL AND
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS
APPROACH 40 KTS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTN SO
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH 700MB TEMPS STAYING BETWEEN
0C AND -3C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE SLIM TO NONE WITH
THE BEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LARGELY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PRETTY QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING A
BACKDOOR FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY...BUT THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD POSE PROBLEMS WITH
TEMPERATURES IF IT STALLS OUT OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA. THERE IS LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IF THE FRONT DOES STALL...WE
COULD BE TOO HIGH ON OUR TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAKES A GOOD PUSH
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
THE REGION. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
508 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CHADRON REMAINS DOWN IN VLIFR FOG/STRATUS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
TO BREAK UP THE FOG AROUND THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
MONTANA WITH MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR CASPER AND
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. KCDR
HAS REPORTED SOME FOG OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EXPERIENCING WEAK
NORTHEAST FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES LIFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY
THROUGH 15Z...SO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER THE FROPA AND WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 700MB TEMPS
AT -1C (DOWN FROM 5C THIS PAST AFTN). PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 30 KTS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LLVL AND
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS
APPROACH 40 KTS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTN SO
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH 700MB TEMPS STAYING BETWEEN
0C AND -3C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE SLIM TO NONE WITH
THE BEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LARGELY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PRETTY QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING A
BACKDOOR FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY...BUT THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD POSE PROBLEMS WITH
TEMPERATURES IF IT STALLS OUT OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA. THERE IS LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IF THE FRONT DOES STALL...WE
COULD BE TOO HIGH ON OUR TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAKES A GOOD PUSH
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
THE REGION. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
MONTANA WITH MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR CASPER AND
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. KCDR
HAS REPORTED SOME FOG OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EXPERIENCING WEAK
NORTHEAST FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES LIFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY
THROUGH 15Z...SO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER THE FROPA AND WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 700MB TEMPS
AT -1C (DOWN FROM 5C THIS PAST AFTN). PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 30 KTS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LLVL AND
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS
APPROACH 40 KTS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTN SO
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH 700MB TEMPS STAYING BETWEEN
0C AND -3C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE SLIM TO NONE WITH
THE BEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LARGELY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PRETTY QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING A
BACKDOOR FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY...BUT THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD POSE PROBLEMS WITH
TEMPERATURES IF IT STALLS OUT OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA. THERE IS LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IF THE FRONT DOES STALL...WE
COULD BE TOO HIGH ON OUR TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAKES A GOOD PUSH
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION BEING CHADRON WHERE
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW HAS CAUSED DENSE FOG TO FORM. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS FOG PERSISTING UNTIL 13Z OR SO WHEN
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
THE REGION. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
...DENSE FOG TO AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
.CURRENTLY...WEAK BROAD HIGH PRES IS OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING A WEAK WLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. STRONG INVERSION PRESENT
PER HRRR GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS OVER THE AREA AND AS A RESULT ADVECTIVE
FOG EVENT TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS OVER S HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NE FL...AND MAY BE EXPANDED IN SE GA LATER THIS
MORNING. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH COUPLE OF LOWER 60S READINGS
IN OVER PARTS OF SE GA. FURTHER N...SFC LOW IS OVER ERN TN VALLEY AREA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT TO CENTRAL MS AND NRN LA WITH SCT
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER WRN AL TO NE LA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL AFFECT A LARGE PERCENTAGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF.
SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL W TO SW TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE GA BY LATE AFTN PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER GA AFTER ABOUT 3 PM.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE IN SE GA PER SPC OUTLOOK BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LIMITED OWING TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY. PWATS
REMAINING GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...BOTH NAM AND GFS SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT PUSHING SWD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO A LINE FROM ABOUT SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
GAINESVILLE BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY 30-40% IN SE GA
AND 20-30% IN NE FL AS THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WEAK AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DIPS SWD. SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES NEAR THE SE GA COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. LATE IN THE NIGHT...ADVECTIVE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN OFF THE GULF BUT FURTHER S MAINLY FROM GNV-ST AUGUSTINE SWD.
LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED.
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO N CENTRAL FL WITH SFC
HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE NE. ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES DUE TO
LINGERING FRONT NEAR THE AREA OVER THE S ZONES. HIGHS FALL BACK INTO
THE 70S MOST AREAS WITH POSSIBLE NEAR 80 DEG READINGS EXTREME S
ZONES AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH N AND CENTRAL FL.
MONDAY NIGHT...RAPID CHANGES UNDERWAY AS STRONG POSITIVE TILT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SE STATES.
THIS WILL GENERATE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE NERN GULF ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IMPRESSIVE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELD MOVING
INTO THE OUR CWA BY 12Z TUE. ANTICIPATE POPS INCREASE TO NEAR 50-60%
FROM W TO E BY EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE STRONG 500 MB TROUGH JUST W OF THE
AREA TO THE SE U.S. COAST BY TUE EVENING. SFC LOW PROGGED TO BE IN
THE FL PANHANDLE TUE MORNING WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD OVER OUR
NE FL AND INTO THE ATLC. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD QUICKLY AND
OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND TAKE OFF TO THE NE WITH
TRAILING FRONT PUSHING SEWD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE HAS
RISEN WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND MAY BE BUMPED
TO CATEGORICAL POPS (AT LEAST 80%) IN LATER FCSTS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG LIFT AND
COLD TEMPS ALOFT AT -18C SUGGEST INCLUDING SLIGHT TSTMS CHANCE OVER
AT LEAST THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70...BUT COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S N ZONES IF CLOUDS
ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT. TUE NIGHT...LOW POPS RESERVED FOR EARLY
EVENING OVER THE ERN ZONES AS WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. AS LOW
PRES MOVES NE OF THE AREA HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN WITH COLDER TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE 40S. WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE OVER SE GA.
&&
.LONG TERM...WED-SAT.
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ALLOWING
STACKED HIGH PRES RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE ERN U.S. BY EARLY SAT. THE
SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER MS VALLEY WED AND EARLY THU WILL PRODUCE
OCNL BREEZY NW FLOW THEN SFC HIGH PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE
FRI THROUGH SAT RESULTING VEERING/WEAK WINDS. TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL SEVERAL DEGS WED AND THU WITH A MODERATING TREND
BY FRI AND SAT AS UPPER RIDING MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S EXPECTED WED...THU AND FRI MORNINGS.
POPS WILL BE 10% OR LESS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG BANK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. ONGOING VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT GNV AND VQQ WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.
DENSE FOG BANK WILL REACH JAX AND CRG JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH
POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THOSE TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD OF
SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MID MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF DENSE FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT GNV TONIGHT WITH THE
LATEST DATA SUGGESTING DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
JACKSONVILLE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL NEAR CAUTION SPEEDS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND A SCEC HEADLINE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
WATERS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA WATERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA WATERS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AN INCREASE TO MODERATE RISK BY
TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 83 52 71 51 / 30 40 10 60
SSI 79 58 70 56 / 20 40 20 60
JAX 83 57 73 55 / 10 20 20 50
SGJ 81 59 74 59 / 10 20 20 40
GNV 82 56 77 54 / 0 20 20 50
OCF 83 57 80 55 / 0 20 20 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
447 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
A SHRTWV TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NE MANITOBA LEAVING WEAK NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW A 2K-3K FT INVERSION WITH 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE CWA.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 925 RH SUGGEST THAT...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TEMP PROFILE AND ONLY A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT. THERE MAY
BE SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE MIXING
MAY HELP PUSH THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY AND THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK...SOME
ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL
UPPER MI INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST...PER
HIGH RES MODELS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN A NARROW RANGE
WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN READINGS TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. HOWEVER...
IF SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS OVER THE SW TEMPS COULD FALL OFF QUICKLY
TO NEAR 20.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
THE 500MB WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW CANADA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCING LOW SWINGING OVER SE
CANADA FROM HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 SYSTEMS UPPER MI WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT /850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -6C TO -2C/...IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEARING LOW FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT...AND SE
BARAGA...AND NE IRON COUNTIES...WITH THE HELP OF A POCKET OF COOLER
AIR WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. S WINDS OFF LAKE MI COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE E
HALF NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...BUT BELOW ANY ADVISORY
VALUES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
S EXTENT OF THE ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM NE MANITOBA THROUGH E
LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS EASTWARD AND TEMPORARILY GETS REPLACED BY A
RIDGE FROM THE SW. WHILE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FCST MODELS IS STILL
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB LOW OR
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFYING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON
THE S EDGE OF THE LARGER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE NATION.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
IN BETWEEN A STRONGER SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN NOV 4 2012
WITH LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF LK SUP ON SRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN ONTARIO
AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN ON SEVERAL LOCAL 00Z RAOBS...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD. THE BEST CHC FOR VFR
CONDITIONS WL BE SUN AFTN AT IWD...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING/DOWNSLOPING NE FLOW WL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF DISSIPATING THE
LO CLD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
116 AM EDT SUN NOV 4 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
PERIOD OF STRATUS EROSION SEEMS TO HAVE ENDED AND CIGS BETWEEN 2500
AND 3500 FEET AS FILLING BACK IN WITHIN LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOST
LIKELY AN ASSIST BY WEAK VVELS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
WILL DO AN ABOUT FACE AND INCLUDE MVFR CIGS INTO THE 12Z-14Z PERIOD
AND THEN BRING SOME CLEARING...OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE. THIS IS SOMEWHAT IFFY GIVEN CONTINUED LIGHT NORTH
FLOW.
AT DTW...SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FOOT STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN FURTHER
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AGAIN
SOMEWHAT WITHIN WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AT TIMES INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A STABLE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM GRASP OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING A RIBBON OF
VORTICITY ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE ND/MN ANOMALY...STRINGING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING A WING OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENSIS SLIDING OVER THE CWA.
THIS FORCING IS NOW DRIVING THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS/LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SATURATED/WEAK LAPSE RATE LAYER BETWEEN 15-20 KFT AGL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FORCING...NECESSITATING AN INCREASED MENTION
OF CLOUDS. A DEEP DRY SLAB WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN 4-15 KFT
AGL...WITH NO REAL SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LACK OF SFC HYDROMETEORS BEING REPORTED IN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY...WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE ABLE TO HANG ON FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE BULK OF THE THUMB. OTHERWISE...DO NOT
WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH RAISING MINIMUMS...GIVEN THE COLD
SURFACE RIDGE AND NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUD CONCERNS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SINKING MOTION FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS SHALLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINTAINING COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE THE
NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON IS LAKE EFFECT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE THUMB REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION LEVEL AROUND 3-4K FEET WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB.
THE SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRY AIR AND RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
DELTA T VALUES LEND ITSELF TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THIS AREA BEING THE EXPECTED RESULT OF THE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...WITH NO WAY TO TAP INTO THE
MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE NOREASTER TRACKING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SEVERELY MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AS THE SYSTEM FAILS TO PULL IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THE RIDGING WILL ALSO PULL IN
SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE WEST AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
EVENTUALLY AROUND +10 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT SATURDAYS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR BELOW BY LATE
EVENING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL BELOW 5
FEET OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS DOWN OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
SANILAC...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. LOCAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A LITTLE
BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS HITTING THE GROUND ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND BASED ON THE 04.03Z HRRR AND 04.00Z HI-RES ARW
AND NMM...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z AND AT THIS POINT...DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THIS
IN THE TODAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION ON THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AND PASS OVER MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRACKING TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN
FACT...THE 04.00Z GFS SHOWS ALL OF THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER STAYING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE WAVE DOES GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500
MB LAYER FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
BEST ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT AROUND 1 TO 2 UBAR/S DOES GET INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR ON
THE 285K SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL HAVE RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
ROCHESTER TO ELKADER LINE. SOME OF THIS LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START OUT FARTHER NORTH COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL TAKE IT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO WAVES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING THIS WAVE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS
INDICATING UP TO 16 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION COMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE QG RESPONSE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE IN STRENGTH BUT VERY DEEP EXTENDING FROM 1000 UP TO 300
MB. VERY LITTLE IF ANY FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND THE ISENTROPIC RESPONSE IS ONLY AROUND 2 UBAR/S ON THE 285K
SURFACE. EXPECT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
EXTENDED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. RAISED THE CHANCES TO 60 AND 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST
FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE WAVE SHOULD WARM THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS LIQUID. HOWEVER...CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE SOME SNOW MIXING IN
SO PLAN TO HAVE A LITTLE MIX FOR A WHILE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST PAST THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO
MINNESOTA SATURDAY. STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS HAS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AND SHOWS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS ALREADY FRIDAY WHILE THE 04.00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE DIFFERENCES THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING
MUCH WETTER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH. NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS AT THIS POINT WHICH
FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
1025 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
AN AREA OF PCPN WAS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS IOWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WAS MOSTLY
-RA...BUT WILL MIX WITH SOME -SN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL. VSBYS
WERE MOSTLY P6SM WITH ANY PCPN...WITH ONLY MINOR IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST RAP13/HRRR/NAM12 CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PCPN SOUTHWEST OF KLSE...BUT COULD MOVE ACROSS KRST. WILL
CONTINUE -SH THERE...AND LEAVE KLSE PCPN FREE FOR NOW.
FOR CIGS...SUB 3 KFT CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH OF THE
PCPN...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING
THESE LOWER CIGS. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD PUSH CIG HEIGHTS UP DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THAT SAID...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. SATURATION IS DEEPER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE...AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS - OR CLOSE TO IT - LOOKS LIKELY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST RAP TRENDS INDICATES THE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWFA WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE
TO A LACK OF CONVERGENCE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE EVEN AS THE OVERALL FORCING
DECREASES. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTH HALF THAN THE NORTH HALF THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
RISE. SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS LATER TODAY AS
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
UPDATE...
TRENDS FROM THE 06Z WRF AND THE RAP MODEL WITH INPUT FROM AREA
RADARS INDICATE AN ADJUSTMENT SOUTHWARD IS NEEDED FOR THE CURRENT
POPS THIS MORNING. BOTH THE WRF AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THE
OVERALL FORCING WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER 12Z. THE
PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND WITH THE FORCING
PROGGED TO GET WEAKER THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AROUND MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DENSE CI/CS
SHIELD FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BE ARRIVING AT THAT TIME.
AT THE VERY BEST SOME EXTREMELY FILTERED SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE. A
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. IF THE LATTER
SCENARIO OCCURS IT WOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
BASED ON AN APPROXIMATED ARRIVAL OF MID DAY FOR THE CLOUD SHIELD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
TO GIVE HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. ..08..
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/05 AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES OR
-SHRA AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. THERE
MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KBRL AROUND SUNRISE. AFT
06Z/05 YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA
BUT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ..08..
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A VERY WEAK LOW NEAR KORC. TROFS EMANATED FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...AND BACK
WEST INTO NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS AROUND THE LOW AND TROFS WERE IN THE
30S WHILE 20S WERE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ON RADAR. HOWEVER...
PRECIPITATION WAS REACHING THE GROUND AND WAS MEASURABLE IN SPOTS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE CURRENT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS BEST DEPICTED USING THE
290K THETA SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/FORCING FROM THE WRF.
THE TREND WITH THE OVERALL FORCING IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO
SUNRISE AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS DRIER
AIR OVER THE AREA. USING THE ABOVE APPROACH IN CONCERT WITH IMPLIED
FORCING FROM THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN HALF
SHOULD SEE SPRINKLES WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE SHRINKING AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FORCING
COLLAPSES.
THERE IS A CONCERN...WHICH THE WRF 290K THETA SFC SHOWED...THAT
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEAKENING
FORCING. CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS ECHOES INCREASING AND MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY A COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS/VIRGA BUT NO SFC STATION IS REPORTING PRECIPITATION. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE AND INTO THE MORNING.
BASED ON THE TRENDS IN FORCING...THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOK TO BE DRY
ACROSS THE AREA AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. IF CLOUDS
HOLD INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN THE CURRENT UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FOR
HIGHS WILL BE TOO WARM.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WHILE THE NEXT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL FORCING AND LOWERING OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FORCING INCREASES AND ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD TO WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN. THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. 08
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SHIFT SOUTH OF REGION ON MON WITH RAIN MAINLY WEST
OF KIIB-KGBG LINE TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY. CLOUDS REMAIN IN WAKE BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE. SIDED TOWARD
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST CWA WHERE
LIKELY TO SEE MORE CLOUDINESS LINGER WHILE OPTED FOR BLEND ELSEWHERE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE.
NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUE-TUE NGT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... DECENT ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ATTENDANT TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF
110-120 KT H3 JET SUPPORT BAND OF PCPN SWEEPING ACROSS CWA TUE AM
EXITING DURING THE AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS ALL AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA... BUT IF FORCING SIGNAL REMAINS THEN WOULD
NEED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER GOOD PORTION
OF CWA FOR MAINLY FIRST HALF OF DAY TUE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED
OF SYSTEM TO KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 0.1 INCH. HIGHS TUE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
40S TO L50S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS LIKELY TO BE IN THE N/E CWA.
WED-FRI... MAINLY DRY WITH WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY THU-FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL... AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED/WET WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND INTERACTS
WITH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS TO START OUT THE WEEKEND ABOVE NORMAL BUT
LIKELY TO RETURN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT. 05
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...
TRENDS FROM THE 06Z WRF AND THE RAP MODEL WITH INPUT FROM AREA
RADARS INDICATE AN ADJUSTMENT SOUTHWARD IS NEEDED FOR THE CURRENT
POPS THIS MORNING. BOTH THE WRF AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THE
OVERALL FORCING WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER 12Z. THE
PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND WITH THE FORCING
PROGGED TO GET WEAKER THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
AROUND MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DENSE CI/CS
SHIELD FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BE ARRIVING AT THAT TIME.
AT THE VERY BEST SOME EXTREMELY FILTERED SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE. A
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. IF THE LATTER
SCENARIO OCCURS IT WOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
BASED ON AN APPROXIMATED ARRIVAL OF MID DAY FOR THE CLOUD SHIELD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
TO GIVE HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/05 AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES OR
-SHRA AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. THERE
MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KBRL AROUND SUNRISE. AFT
06Z/05 YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA
BUT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A VERY WEAK LOW NEAR KORC. TROFS EMANATED FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...AND BACK
WEST INTO NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS AROUND THE LOW AND TROFS WERE IN THE
30S WHILE 20S WERE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ON RADAR. HOWEVER...
PRECIPITATION WAS REACHING THE GROUND AND WAS MEASURABLE IN SPOTS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE CURRENT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS BEST DEPICTED USING THE
290K THETA SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/FORCING FROM THE WRF.
THE TREND WITH THE OVERALL FORCING IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO
SUNRISE AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS DRIER
AIR OVER THE AREA. USING THE ABOVE APPROACH IN CONCERT WITH IMPLIED
FORCING FROM THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN HALF
SHOULD SEE SPRINKLES WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE SHRINKING AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FORCING
COLLAPSES.
THERE IS A CONCERN...WHICH THE WRF 290K THETA SFC SHOWED...THAT
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEAKENING
FORCING. CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS ECHOES INCREASING AND MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY A COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS/VIRGA BUT NO SFC STATION IS REPORTING PRECIPITATION. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE AND INTO THE MORNING.
BASED ON THE TRENDS IN FORCING...THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOK TO BE DRY
ACROSS THE AREA AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. IF CLOUDS
HOLD INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN THE CURRENT UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FOR
HIGHS WILL BE TOO WARM.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WHILE THE NEXT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL FORCING AND LOWERING OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FORCING INCREASES AND ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD TO WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN. THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. 08
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SHIFT SOUTH OF REGION ON MON WITH RAIN MAINLY WEST
OF KIIB-KGBG LINE TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY. CLOUDS REMAIN IN WAKE BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE. SIDED TOWARD
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST CWA WHERE
LIKELY TO SEE MORE CLOUDINESS LINGER WHILE OPTED FOR BLEND ELSEWHERE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE.
NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUE-TUE NGT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... DECENT ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ATTENDANT TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF
110-120 KT H3 JET SUPPORT BAND OF PCPN SWEEPING ACROSS CWA TUE AM
EXITING DURING THE AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS ALL AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA... BUT IF FORCING SIGNAL REMAINS THEN WOULD
NEED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER GOOD PORTION
OF CWA FOR MAINLY FIRST HALF OF DAY TUE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED
OF SYSTEM TO KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 0.1 INCH. HIGHS TUE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
40S TO L50S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS LIKELY TO BE IN THE N/E CWA.
WED-FRI... MAINLY DRY WITH WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY THU-FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL... AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED/WET WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND INTERACTS
WITH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS TO START OUT THE WEEKEND ABOVE NORMAL BUT
LIKELY TO RETURN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT. 05
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
645 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
A SHRTWV TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NE MANITOBA LEAVING WEAK NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW A 2K-3K FT INVERSION WITH 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE CWA.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 925 RH SUGGEST THAT...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TEMP PROFILE AND ONLY A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT. THERE MAY
BE SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE MIXING
MAY HELP PUSH THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY AND THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK...SOME
ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL
UPPER MI INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST...PER
HIGH RES MODELS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN A NARROW RANGE
WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN READINGS TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. HOWEVER...
IF SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS OVER THE SW TEMPS COULD FALL OFF QUICKLY
TO NEAR 20.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
THE 500MB WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW CANADA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCING LOW SWINGING OVER SE
CANADA FROM HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 SYSTEMS UPPER MI WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT /850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -6C TO -2C/...IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEARING LOW FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT...AND SE
BARAGA...AND NE IRON COUNTIES...WITH THE HELP OF A POCKET OF COOLER
AIR WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. S WINDS OFF LAKE MI COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE E
HALF NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...BUT BELOW ANY ADVISORY
VALUES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
S EXTENT OF THE ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM NE MANITOBA THROUGH E
LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS EASTWARD AND TEMPORARILY GETS REPLACED BY A
RIDGE FROM THE SW. WHILE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FCST MODELS IS STILL
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB LOW OR
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFYING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON
THE S EDGE OF THE LARGER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE NATION.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
IN BETWEEN A STRONGER SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
WITH LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
HIGH PRES IN ONTARIO AND A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT IWD...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING NE FLOW WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
DISSIPATING THE LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
520 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. LOCAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A LITTLE
BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS HITTING THE GROUND ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND BASED ON THE 04.03Z HRRR AND 04.00Z HI-RES ARW
AND NMM...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z AND AT THIS POINT...DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THIS
IN THE TODAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION ON THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AND PASS OVER MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRACKING TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN
FACT...THE 04.00Z GFS SHOWS ALL OF THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER STAYING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE WAVE DOES GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500
MB LAYER FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
BEST ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT AROUND 1 TO 2 UBAR/S DOES GET INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR ON
THE 285K SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL HAVE RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
ROCHESTER TO ELKADER LINE. SOME OF THIS LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START OUT FARTHER NORTH COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL TAKE IT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO WAVES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING THIS WAVE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS
INDICATING UP TO 16 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION COMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE QG RESPONSE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE IN STRENGTH BUT VERY DEEP EXTENDING FROM 1000 UP TO 300
MB. VERY LITTLE IF ANY FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND THE ISENTROPIC RESPONSE IS ONLY AROUND 2 UBAR/S ON THE 285K
SURFACE. EXPECT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
EXTENDED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. RAISED THE CHANCES TO 60 AND 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST
FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE WAVE SHOULD WARM THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS LIQUID. HOWEVER...CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE SOME SNOW MIXING IN
SO PLAN TO HAVE A LITTLE MIX FOR A WHILE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST PAST THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO
MINNESOTA SATURDAY. STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS HAS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AND SHOWS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS ALREADY FRIDAY WHILE THE 04.00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE DIFFERENCES THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING
MUCH WETTER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH. NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS AT THIS POINT WHICH
FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
520 AM CDT SUN NOV 4 2012
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE 900MB TO ABOUT 800MB LAYER /ROUGHLY 2K-6K FT/
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEPER/LOWER OF THIS MOISTURE
RESIDES WEST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. ISOTHERMAL OR WEAK
INVERSIONS THRU ABOUT 800MB ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE SFC-700MB
LAYER AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PASS JUST WEST OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...LOOK TO KEEP THIS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY
ADVECT IT EASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH SOME DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING...
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE ADVECTION OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST TONIGHT AND DIURNAL COOLING...CIGS LOOK TO LOWER INTO
THE 2K-3K FT RANGE BY LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPING AND THE LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR WEST OF THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT RETURN
TONIGHT AT SITES LIKE KRST WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE...INCREASE OF
MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. WEAK LIFT WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY -RA/-DZ
TO AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA LATE TONIGHT. ADDED
VCSH TO KRST AFTER 06Z FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
223 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE
HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 750 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH MIXED CAPE VALUES CONSIDERABLY LOWER. BAND OF PRE-
FRONTAL -RA CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA BUT NO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF NOTE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THUS
FAR. INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...FEEL BY THE TIME STRONG OR
SEVERE COULD BE REALIZED...BEST LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SCALE BACK THE HWO AND ONGOING
GRAPHICAST ONCE DEVELOPING LINE SHIFTS EAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY SHORT TERM DAY WITH FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS AS HIGH CENTERED OVER CANADA HAS ENOUGH WEAK RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE OUR AREA TO PRODUCE A POP FREE DAY. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL DURING THE DAY HAS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKES A RAPID RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE AS THEIR ARRIVAL PRIOR TO
SUNSET WILL RESULT IN MINS TUESDAY MORNING NOT REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL AS PRECIP BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA IN EARNEST JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
ROTATES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. NAM12 IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DYNAMICALLY COOLING THE COLUMN...TAKING THE 850MB
TEMP FROM +2C TO -1C IN A MATTER OF TWO HOURS. NOT COMPLETELY OUR
OF THE QUESTION WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO SEE THIS TYPE OF
COOLING ALOFT...BUT JUST CANNOT SEEM TO GET SURFACE TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS IS TRUE
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP FORECAST ALL LIQUID THIS RUN
BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT CYCLES.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEST SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE LOW...WILL NEED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AND FOR THE MOST PART AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF. CORRESPONDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ANCHORING ITSELF IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY BUT
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. HAVE MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012/
BIG FORECAST STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST DEEPENING OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF
THE PROJECTED TRACK...EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANGES TO INITIALLY BE
ACROSS WESTERN GA LATE ON MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED MORE ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL...CUTTING OFF THE
AREA FROM MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY
DUE TO THE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NORTHERN
MOISTURE PROGRESSION. LITTLE OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH DID
KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR SE CWA TUESDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EMERGES OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DRY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
31
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BAND OF INTERMITTENT -RA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE ATL AREA TERMINALS. NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBY OR
CIG NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT HAVE NOTED SOME CIG REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY -RA FOR ATL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS FOLLOWED WITH A TEMPO FOR BKN025. FURTHER SOUTH OVER MCN AND
CSG...PROSPECTS FOR TSRA APPEAR TO BE WANING BUT DEVELOPMENT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS FOR NOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG AND WIND SHIFT MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 44 62 42 / 30 5 0 50
ATLANTA 73 43 64 46 / 30 0 0 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 37 57 40 / 20 0 0 50
CARTERSVILLE 68 38 63 41 / 20 0 0 60
COLUMBUS 79 44 69 48 / 30 20 0 80
GAINESVILLE 69 45 60 44 / 20 0 0 50
MACON 83 43 68 44 / 30 30 0 80
ROME 67 36 64 40 / 20 0 0 60
PEACHTREE CITY 73 37 65 40 / 40 0 0 70
VIDALIA 86 54 68 49 / 30 40 0 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
203 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CST
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TRENDS FOR TODAY.
MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE
SEEMS A BIT DISJOINTED WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FORCING LINGERING TO THE WEST ACROSS IA...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES SOME WEAK RETURNS. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA AND
RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR WESTERN CWA HAVE DIMINISHED
DURING THE MORNING...AND HAVE THUS REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
THOSE AREAS. FARTHER EAST...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES. OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SETS THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT
LAKE PLUME THE BEST...AND WHILE IT WEAKENS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...IT
MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP FROM FAR ABOUT THE
STATE LINE AREA EAST INTO WESTERN PORTER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND A SMALL DECREASE IN LAKE-850 MB DELTA T VALUES FROM
ABOUT 17 DEG TO 15 DEG...AS WELL AS LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS FROM ABOUT 5500-6000 FT TO LESS THAN 5000 FT BY 00Z. THUS
SUSPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
202 AM CST
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN SETTING UP FOR
ELECTION DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE ROCKFORD AREA AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...FOCUSED IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP BY AN OFFSHORE
LAND BREEZE FLOW PATTERN. COUPLED WITH LAKE SFC TO 850MB DELTA-T
VALUES BTWN 15-18C...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WI/IL TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SCT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE
BEEN MONITORING AN AREA PF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NERN IA WHICH IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PCPN. AS SFC
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
20S...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NWRN
IL...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...LAST EVENING`S SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATED
PWAT OF ONLY 0.42 INCHES...NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED. AS THE
SHORT WAVES QUICKLY DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO SRN INDIANA THIS EVENING...ANY PCPN POTENTIAL OVER
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND NOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKY AS A DEEP POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SWD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EWD FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
SET UP A PERIOD OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES WILL TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND
MISSOURI ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF PCPN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO BRING ANY PCPN INTO NCNRTL/NERN IL OR
NWRN INDIANA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH...WITH THE NAM A BIT WEAKER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF.
HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
DRY FORECAST OVER THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SHAPING UP TO HAVE A
MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE THE SHORTWAVE ADDING LOW LEVEL
FORCING TO THE MIDLEVEL FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS PACIFIC-SOURCED...AND CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F. WITH REASONABLY DECENT CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MEASURABLE LIQUID PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO...AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...ELECTION DAY SHOULD BE BREEZY AND WET.
FOR THE LONGER TERM...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE. BY
LATE TUESDAY...THE POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN QUEBEC SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR SOME PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PENETRATE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRAIN OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN THE
FLATTER...BROADER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF THE GFS. SO...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST...AND JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF
BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WIND DIRECTIONS CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAIN. RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOW THE APPROACH OF A LINE OF CUMULUS FROM THE EAST
BEHIND WHICH THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD MAYBE FINALLY TURN THINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED ALL AFTERNOON.
* LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT BUT STILL LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE IFR.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD IS ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
TREND WOULD STILL APPEAR TO FAVOR A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LAKE BREEZE CAN DEVELOP.
DEVELOPING CUMULUS ALONG THE WATERFRONT SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE
CASE...BUT ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS
IN THE 3500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CIGS DO LOOK FAVORABLE
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING IF DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE PUSHES THE CLOUDS NOW SEEN OVER INDIANA FARTHER WEST
INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. TO A LESSER DEGREE THE SAME TREND IS
EXPECTED AT RFD BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. THE AREA OUT WEST WILL
BE CLOSER TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE UNDER THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHC OTHERWISE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. CHC OF MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE DAY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
102 PM CST
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER ON THE LAKE THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
LIKE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPROACH LOW END GALES TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HEALTHY SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT LEADING TO A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRONG SOUTHERLIES A THREAT AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CST
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TRENDS FOR TODAY.
MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE
SEEMS A BIT DISJOINTED WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FORCING LINGERING TO THE WEST ACROSS IA...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES SOME WEAK RETURNS. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA AND
RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR WESTERN CWA HAVE DIMINISHED
DURING THE MORNING...AND HAVE THUS REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
THOSE AREAS. FARTHER EAST...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES. OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SETS THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT
LAKE PLUME THE BEST...AND WHILE IT WEAKENS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...IT
MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP FROM FAR ABOUT THE
STATE LINE AREA EAST INTO WESTERN PORTER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND A SMALL DECREASE IN LAKE-850 MB DELTA T VALUES FROM
ABOUT 17 DEG TO 15 DEG...AS WELL AS LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS FROM ABOUT 5500-6000 FT TO LESS THAN 5000 FT BY 00Z. THUS
SUSPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
202 AM CST
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN SETTING UP FOR
ELECTION DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE ROCKFORD AREA AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...FOCUSED IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP BY AN OFFSHORE
LAND BREEZE FLOW PATTERN. COUPLED WITH LAKE SFC TO 850MB DELTA-T
VALUES BTWN 15-18C...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WI/IL TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SCT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE
BEEN MONITORING AN AREA PF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NERN IA WHICH IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PCPN. AS SFC
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
20S...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NWRN
IL...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...LAST EVENING`S SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATED
PWAT OF ONLY 0.42 INCHES...NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED. AS THE
SHORT WAVES QUICKLY DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO SRN INDIANA THIS EVENING...ANY PCPN POTENTIAL OVER
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND NOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKY AS A DEEP POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SWD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EWD FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
SET UP A PERIOD OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES WILL TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND
MISSOURI ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF PCPN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO BRING ANY PCPN INTO NCNRTL/NERN IL OR
NWRN INDIANA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH...WITH THE NAM A BIT WEAKER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF.
HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
DRY FORECAST OVER THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SHAPING UP TO HAVE A
MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE THE SHORTWAVE ADDING LOW LEVEL
FORCING TO THE MIDLEVEL FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS PACIFIC-SOURCED...AND CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F. WITH REASONABLY DECENT CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MEASURABLE LIQUID PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO...AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...ELECTION DAY SHOULD BE BREEZY AND WET.
FOR THE LONGER TERM...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE. BY
LATE TUESDAY...THE POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN QUEBEC SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR SOME PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PENETRATE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRAIN OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN THE
FLATTER...BROADER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF THE GFS. SO...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST...AND JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF
BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY BUT DIRECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...VARYING FROM NW TO ENE. POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WOULD FAVOR THE NE QUADRANT.
* POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH
LIKELY STAYING ABOVE IFR.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD IS ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
TREND WOULD STILL APPEAR TO FAVOR A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LAKE BREEZE CAN DEVELOP.
DEVELOPING CUMULUS ALONG THE WATERFRONT SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE
CASE...BUT ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS
IN THE 3500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CIGS DO LOOK FAVORABLE
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING IF DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE PUSHES THE CLOUDS NOW SEEN OVER INDIANA FARTHER WEST
INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. TO A LESSER DEGREE THE SAME TREND IS
EXPECTED AT RFD BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. THE AREA OUT WEST WILL
BE CLOSER TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE UNDER THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TREND OF LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHC OTHERWISE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. CHC OF MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE DAY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
102 PM CST
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER ON THE LAKE THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
LIKE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPROACH LOW END GALES TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HEALTHY SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT LEADING TO A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRONG SOUTHERLIES A THREAT AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1217 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CST
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TRENDS FOR TODAY.
MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE
SEEMS A BIT DISJOINTED WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FORCING LINGERING TO THE WEST ACROSS IA...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES SOME WEAK RETURNS. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA AND
RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR WESTERN CWA HAVE DIMINISHED
DURING THE MORNING...AND HAVE THUS REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
THOSE AREAS. FARTHER EAST...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES. OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SETS THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT
LAKE PLUME THE BEST...AND WHILE IT WEAKENS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...IT
MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP FROM FAR ABOUT THE
STATE LINE AREA EAST INTO WESTERN PORTER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND A SMALL DECREASE IN LAKE-850 MB DELTA T VALUES FROM
ABOUT 17 DEG TO 15 DEG...AS WELL AS LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS FROM ABOUT 5500-6000 FT TO LESS THAN 5000 FT BY 00Z. THUS
SUSPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
202 AM CST
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN SETTING UP FOR
ELECTION DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE ROCKFORD AREA AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...FOCUSED IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP BY AN OFFSHORE
LAND BREEZE FLOW PATTERN. COUPLED WITH LAKE SFC TO 850MB DELTA-T
VALUES BTWN 15-18C...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WI/IL TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SCT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE
BEEN MONITORING AN AREA PF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NERN IA WHICH IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PCPN. AS SFC
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
20S...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NWRN
IL...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...LAST EVENING`S SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATED
PWAT OF ONLY 0.42 INCHES...NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED. AS THE
SHORT WAVES QUICKLY DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO SRN INDIANA THIS EVENING...ANY PCPN POTENTIAL OVER
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND NOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKY AS A DEEP POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SWD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EWD FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
SET UP A PERIOD OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES WILL TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND
MISSOURI ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF PCPN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO BRING ANY PCPN INTO NCNRTL/NERN IL OR
NWRN INDIANA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH...WITH THE NAM A BIT WEAKER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF.
HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
DRY FORECAST OVER THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SHAPING UP TO HAVE A
MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE THE SHORTWAVE ADDING LOW LEVEL
FORCING TO THE MIDLEVEL FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS PACIFIC-SOURCED...AND CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F. WITH REASONABLY DECENT CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MEASURABLE LIQUID PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO...AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...ELECTION DAY SHOULD BE BREEZY AND WET.
FOR THE LONGER TERM...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE. BY
LATE TUESDAY...THE POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN QUEBEC SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR SOME PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PENETRATE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRAIN OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN THE
FLATTER...BROADER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF THE GFS. SO...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST...AND JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF
BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY BUT DIRECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...VARYING FROM NW TO ENE. POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WOULD FAVOR THE NE QUADRANT.
* POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH
LIKELY STAYING ABOVE IFR.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD IS ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
TREND WOULD STILL APPEAR TO FAVOR A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LAKE BREEZE CAN DEVELOP.
DEVELOPING CUMULUS ALONG THE WATERFRONT SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE
CASE...BUT ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS
IN THE 3500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CIGS DO LOOK FAVORABLE
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING IF DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE PUSHES THE CLOUDS NOW SEEN OVER INDIANA FARTHER WEST
INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. TO A LESSER DEGREE THE SAME TREND IS
EXPECTED AT RFD BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. THE AREA OUT WEST WILL
BE CLOSER TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE UNDER THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TREND OF LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHC OTHERWISE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. CHC OF MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE DAY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
145 AM CST
AFTER A WEEK STRAIGHT OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES...QUIET
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE START OF THIS WEEK. WINDS MAY BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES OVER THE LAKE BY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN SOUTHERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
ALREADY HAS A GOOD PRESSURE AND PRESSURE TENDENCY PATTERN SIGNAL TO
RESULT IN 30 KT /OR POSSIBLY JUST HIGHER/ WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE AND WAVES BRIEFLY UP TOWARD 10 FT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING AND WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A
DAY OR TWO AFTER THIS TIME...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1040 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CST
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TRENDS FOR TODAY.
MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE
SEEMS A BIT DISJOINTED WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FORCING LINGERING TO THE WEST ACROSS IA...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES SOME WEAK RETURNS. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA AND
RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR WESTERN CWA HAVE DIMINISHED
DURING THE MORNING...AND HAVE THUS REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
THOSE AREAS. FARTHER EAST...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES. OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SETS THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT
LAKE PLUME THE BEST...AND WHILE IT WEAKENS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...IT
MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP FROM FAR ABOUT THE
STATE LINE AREA EAST INTO WESTERN PORTER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND A SMALL DECREASE IN LAKE-850 MB DELTA T VALUES FROM
ABOUT 17 DEG TO 15 DEG...AS WELL AS LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS FROM ABOUT 5500-6000 FT TO LESS THAN 5000 FT BY 00Z. THUS
SUSPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
202 AM CST
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN SETTING UP FOR
ELECTION DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE ROCKFORD AREA AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...FOCUSED IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP BY AN OFFSHORE
LAND BREEZE FLOW PATTERN. COUPLED WITH LAKE SFC TO 850MB DELTA-T
VALUES BTWN 15-18C...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WI/IL TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SCT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE
BEEN MONITORING AN AREA PF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NERN IA WHICH IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PCPN. AS SFC
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
20S...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NWRN
IL...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...LAST EVENING`S SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATED
PWAT OF ONLY 0.42 INCHES...NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED. AS THE
SHORT WAVES QUICKLY DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO SRN INDIANA THIS EVENING...ANY PCPN POTENTIAL OVER
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND NOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKY AS A DEEP POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SWD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EWD FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
SET UP A PERIOD OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES WILL TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND
MISSOURI ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF PCPN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO BRING ANY PCPN INTO NCNRTL/NERN IL OR
NWRN INDIANA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH...WITH THE NAM A BIT WEAKER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF.
HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
DRY FORECAST OVER THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SHAPING UP TO HAVE A
MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE THE SHORTWAVE ADDING LOW LEVEL
FORCING TO THE MIDLEVEL FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM IS PACIFIC-SOURCED...AND CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F. WITH REASONABLY DECENT CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MEASURABLE LIQUID PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO...AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...ELECTION DAY SHOULD BE BREEZY AND WET.
FOR THE LONGER TERM...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE. BY
LATE TUESDAY...THE POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN QUEBEC SHOULD FINALLY KICK
OUT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR SOME PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PENETRATE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRAIN OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN THE
FLATTER...BROADER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF THE GFS. SO...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST...AND JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF
BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WINDS LIGHT AND SLOWING TURNING FROM NNW TO NNE BUT ORD ALREADY
ON PLAN X SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
* LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER ON THE INDIANA SIDE OF THE
LAKE TODAY.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD ACROSS RFD AND FROM THERE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL.
THIS WILL CREEP SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SUCH A WIND COMPONENT WILL OFFER A FETCH OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. THE CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS
WELL-ESTABLISHED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. SOME SUBTLE SHIFTING OF
THIS AXIS MAY OCCUR...BUT AT THIS POINT GIVEN ITS PLACEMENT IT
APPEARS THAT EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR THAT...THE HEART OF ANY MVFR
CIGS AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN EAST OF ORD AND
MDW TODAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL SPREAD SOME VIRGA/LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE
AREA...NAMELY WEST AND SOUTH OF CHICAGO. THIS MAY EVEN INCLUDE
SOME FLURRIES AT RFD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER SOME...ALLOWING FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHEAST IL. TIMING ON
THIS COULD BE BE AS EARLY AS 02Z OR SO...BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING
THE LATER ROUTE. THE CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SIMILAR TONIGHT AS TO WHAT
THEY HAVE BEEN...SO AGAIN SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
STRUGGLE TO MOVE VERY FAR INLAND ARE PROBABLE. THESE CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY WILL BE ABOVE 1500 FT...MORE TOWARD
2500-3500 FT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHC OTHERWISE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. CHC OF MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF -RA DURING THE DAY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
145 AM CST
AFTER A WEEK STRAIGHT OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES...QUIET
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE START OF THIS WEEK. WINDS MAY BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES OVER THE LAKE BY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN SOUTHERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
ALREADY HAS A GOOD PRESSURE AND PRESSURE TENDENCY PATTERN SIGNAL TO
RESULT IN 30 KT /OR POSSIBLY JUST HIGHER/ WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE AND WAVES BRIEFLY UP TOWARD 10 FT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING AND WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A
DAY OR TWO AFTER THIS TIME...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1232 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...HAVE BUMPED UP THE ISOLATED FLURRIES TO ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS /MIXED WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKESHORE/. EXPECT
A SIMILAR SITUATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE DIURNAL AFFECTS WERE ABLE TO LIFT THE INVERSION A
FEW HUNDRED FEET AND ENOUGH TO ENABLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SFC-H925 DELTA-T OF 13. HAVE CONTINUED THIS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...LARGELY FOLLOWING THE SLOWLY VEERING LIGHT FLOW FROM NORTH
TO EAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
A SHRTWV TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NE MANITOBA LEAVING WEAK NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW A 2K-3K FT INVERSION WITH 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE CWA.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 925 RH SUGGEST THAT...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TEMP PROFILE AND ONLY A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT. THERE MAY
BE SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE MIXING
MAY HELP PUSH THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY AND THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK...SOME
ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL
UPPER MI INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST...PER
HIGH RES MODELS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN A NARROW RANGE
WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN READINGS TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. HOWEVER...
IF SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS OVER THE SW TEMPS COULD FALL OFF QUICKLY
TO NEAR 20.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
THE 500MB WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW CANADA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCING LOW SWINGING OVER SE
CANADA FROM HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 SYSTEMS UPPER MI WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT /850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -6C TO -2C/...IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEARING LOW FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT...AND SE
BARAGA...AND NE IRON COUNTIES...WITH THE HELP OF A POCKET OF COOLER
AIR WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. S WINDS OFF LAKE MI COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE E
HALF NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...BUT BELOW ANY ADVISORY
VALUES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
S EXTENT OF THE ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM NE MANITOBA THROUGH E
LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS EASTWARD AND TEMPORARILY GETS REPLACED BY A
RIDGE FROM THE SW. WHILE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FCST MODELS IS STILL
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB LOW OR
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFYING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON
THE S EDGE OF THE LARGER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE NATION.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
IN BETWEEN A STRONGER SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
STRONG INVERSION AROUND 3KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS CONTINUED TO
TRAP CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH CONTINUING LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THEN VEERING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE MVFR CLOUDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AT KCMX/KSAW. ALSO EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
TO AFFECT KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT ONLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AT KSAW SINCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN UNFAVORABLE. SINCE
CEILINGS ARE ALREADY AT MVFR LEVELS...DIDN/T TRY TO TIME THE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
AS FOR KIWD...DAYTIME MIXING IS STARTING TO BREAK UP CLOUDS AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE NORTH TO THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HAS HAPPENED THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...EXPECT THE BREAKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS LIGHT NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS BACK IN AFTER SUNSET. IF CLOUDS RETREAT
FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BACK
INTO KIWD WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1138 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...HAVE BUMPED UP THE ISOLATED FLURRIES TO ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS /MIXED WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKESHORE/. EXPECT
A SIMILAR SITUATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE DIURNAL AFFECTS WERE ABLE TO LIFT THE INVERSION A
FEW HUNDRED FEET AND ENOUGH TO ENABLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SFC-H925 DELTA-T OF 13. HAVE CONTINUED THIS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...LARGELY FOLLOWING THE SLOWLY VEERING LIGHT FLOW FROM NORTH
TO EAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
A SHRTWV TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NE MANITOBA LEAVING WEAK NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW A 2K-3K FT INVERSION WITH 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE CWA.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 925 RH SUGGEST THAT...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TEMP PROFILE AND ONLY A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT. THERE MAY
BE SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE MIXING
MAY HELP PUSH THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY AND THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK...SOME
ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL
UPPER MI INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST...PER
HIGH RES MODELS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN A NARROW RANGE
WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN READINGS TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. HOWEVER...
IF SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS OVER THE SW TEMPS COULD FALL OFF QUICKLY
TO NEAR 20.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
THE 500MB WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW CANADA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCING LOW SWINGING OVER SE
CANADA FROM HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 SYSTEMS UPPER MI WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT /850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -6C TO -2C/...IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEARING LOW FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT...AND SE
BARAGA...AND NE IRON COUNTIES...WITH THE HELP OF A POCKET OF COOLER
AIR WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. S WINDS OFF LAKE MI COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE E
HALF NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...BUT BELOW ANY ADVISORY
VALUES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
S EXTENT OF THE ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM NE MANITOBA THROUGH E
LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS EASTWARD AND TEMPORARILY GETS REPLACED BY A
RIDGE FROM THE SW. WHILE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FCST MODELS IS STILL
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB LOW OR
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFYING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON
THE S EDGE OF THE LARGER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE NATION.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
IN BETWEEN A STRONGER SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
WITH LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
HIGH PRES IN ONTARIO AND A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT IWD...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING NE FLOW WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
DISSIPATING THE LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY WILL SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 KTS. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(TONIGHT)
POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKEWISE DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND LINK UP WITH A BROAD/RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER KANSAS. THE COMBINED SURFACE TROF WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING A SWATH OF RAIN
OUT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE HRRR IS ESPECIALLY FAST
BRINGING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MO AS EARLY AS 03Z...AND SPREADING TO
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z. AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE 3-6HRS SLOWER...BUT WILL
BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR A FASTER ONSET OF RAIN.
CARNEY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALIVE AND WELL ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THIS LONGWAVE TROF AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE THE NATIONS WEATHER STORY...AS THE NOR`EASTER BRINGS
STRONG WIND...RAIN...AND EVEN SOME WINTER WEATHER TO AREAS STILL
REELING FROM SANDY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MISSOURI. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. HAVE WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE LOWEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. RAIN SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A FINAL SHORTWAVE...THE CABOOSE...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND AN EASTERN TRACK TO THE DISTURBANCE KEEPS POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CONFINED TO ILLINOIS COUNTIES. SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION BY WEEKS END AS A
MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM CARVES A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH HELPS AMPLIFY A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
END RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS LARGE UPPER TROF WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE WIND WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OUT OF A MID CLOUD DECK STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...BUT EXPECT NO IMPACTS FROM THIS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. A STORM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE AREAS OF IFR CIGS DEVELOP BEFORE 18Z MONDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE WIND WILL PREVAIL AT
LAMBERT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. A
STORM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z MONDAY MORNING. WHILE NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CIGS FALL TO
IFR AFTER 18Z MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE TERMINAL.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS NOREASTER WILL TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST IN MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SMALL AREA OF SHRA COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CWFA
ATTM. RAP AND HRRR TAKE THIS AREA ACROSS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE AND
EAST OF THE CWFA BY ABOUT 01Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS. EXPECT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF AT MOST WITH THESE
SHRA. SKIES SHUD CLEAR BEHIND THE PRECIP AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. A COOL AIR MASS MOVES IN AS WELL...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...SO WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FROST
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE DAY SHUD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM. AFTER A INCREASE IN N TO NELY WINDS WITH MIXING...WINDS
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP-DIGGING SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING IT FAIRLY COMPACT AS IT ENTERS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. TAKING A BLEND...POPS WERE CUT BACK...ESP
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS ARE TRICKY...AS MODEST SFC HIGH PRES
WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WARMER...PROBABLY DUE TO LTL IF ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAKED THE TEMPS FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF STILL HAS THE MOST QPF ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE CWFA...THANKS TO A BAND OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT OF POPS IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAKING
FOR A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. IN ANY
CASE...IT WILL BE COOL...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS THE CWFA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING
LLVL FLOW AROUND TO NW AND INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE BEST
UPSLOPE DOES NOT LINE UP WITH THE MID-UPR QG FORCING HOWEVER. SO
WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ALONG THE TN LINE DURING THESE PERIODS. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN
LINE. OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MAIN LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LIFTING NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THICKNESSES REMAIN LOW...SUCH THAT THE MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM.
WILL UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A PERIOD OF NW FLOW PRECIP OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN
ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER AFTER SUNSET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE EAST COAST STORM BY WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCT LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF CIG THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD. SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. EXPECT NLY WIND TO
BECOME NNE THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GUSTS FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU MON MORN. NNE WIND WILL SHOW AN
UPTICK IN SPEED BY MID MORNING AS MIXING RETURNS.
ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION AS WITH KCLT...BUT WIND WILL BE
FURTHER COMPLICATED OVER THE SC SITES BY MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW ALONG
THE FRONT. IN GENERAL...WINDS ACROSS NC WILL REMAIN N TO NE...WHILE
WINDS AT KAND WILL GO FROM W TO NW TO N BY EVENING. KGSP/KGMU WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NNE. N TO NE WIND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING MONDAY. KAVL WILL SEE GUSTS INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SC SITES COULD SEE LOW END GUSTS AS WELL. KAND
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN
THERE CHC IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION. OTHERWISE...SCT LOW VFR AND
BKN CIRRUS WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE MON MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF LOW VFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK...DRY FCST CONTINUES MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
RETURNS FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RESTRICTIONS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...WHICH COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS NOREASTER WILL TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST IN MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SMALL AREA OF SHRA COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CWFA
ATTM. RAP AND HRRR TAKE THIS AREA ACROSS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE AND
EAST OF THE CWFA BY ABOUT 01Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS. EXPECT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF AT MOST WITH THESE
SHRA. SKIES SHUD CLEAR BEHIND THE PRECIP AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. A COOL AIR MASS MOVES IN AS WELL...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...SO WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FROST
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE DAY SHUD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM. AFTER A INCREASE IN N TO NELY WINDS WITH MIXING...WINDS
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP-DIGGING SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING IT FAIRLY COMPACT AS IT ENTERS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. TAKING A BLEND...POPS WERE CUT BACK...ESP
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS ARE TRICKY...AS MODEST SFC HIGH PRES
WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WARMER...PROBABLY DUE TO LTL IF ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAKED THE TEMPS FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF STILL HAS THE MOST QPF ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE CWFA...THANKS TO A BAND OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT OF POPS IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAKING
FOR A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. IN ANY
CASE...IT WILL BE COOL...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS THE CWFA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING
LLVL FLOW AROUND TO NW AND INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE BEST
UPSLOPE DOES NOT LINE UP WITH THE MID-UPR QG FORCING HOWEVER. SO
WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ALONG THE TN LINE DURING THESE PERIODS. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN
LINE. OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MAIN LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LIFTING NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THICKNESSES REMAIN LOW...SUCH THAT THE MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM.
WILL UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A PERIOD OF NW FLOW PRECIP ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY AND
MOISTURE ROTATES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE
NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUE AS THE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE EAST COAST STORM BY WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCT LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF CIG THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD. SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. EXPECT NLY WIND TO
BECOME NNE THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GUSTS FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU MON MORN. NNE WIND WILL SHOW AN
UPTICK IN SPEED BY MID MORNING AS MIXING RETURNS.
ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION AS WITH KCLT...BUT WIND WILL BE
FURTHER COMPLICATED OVER THE SC SITES BY MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW ALONG
THE FRONT. IN GENERAL...WINDS ACROSS NC WILL REMAIN N TO NE...WHILE
WINDS AT KAND WILL GO FROM W TO NW TO N BY EVENING. KGSP/KGMU WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NNE. N TO NE WIND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING MONDAY. KAVL WILL SEE GUSTS INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SC SITES COULD SEE LOW END GUSTS AS WELL. KAND
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN
THERE CHC IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION. OTHERWISE...SCT LOW VFR AND
BKN CIRRUS WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE MON MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF LOW VFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK...DRY FCST CONTINUES MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
RETURNS FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RESTRICTIONS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...WHICH COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. LOCAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A LITTLE
BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS HITTING THE GROUND ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND BASED ON THE 04.03Z HRRR AND 04.00Z HI-RES ARW
AND NMM...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z AND AT THIS POINT...DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THIS
IN THE TODAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION ON THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AND PASS OVER MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRACKING TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN
FACT...THE 04.00Z GFS SHOWS ALL OF THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER STAYING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE WAVE DOES GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500
MB LAYER FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
BEST ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT AROUND 1 TO 2 UBAR/S DOES GET INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR ON
THE 285K SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL HAVE RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
ROCHESTER TO ELKADER LINE. SOME OF THIS LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START OUT FARTHER NORTH COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL TAKE IT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO WAVES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING THIS WAVE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS
INDICATING UP TO 16 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION COMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE QG RESPONSE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE IN STRENGTH BUT VERY DEEP EXTENDING FROM 1000 UP TO 300
MB. VERY LITTLE IF ANY FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND THE ISENTROPIC RESPONSE IS ONLY AROUND 2 UBAR/S ON THE 285K
SURFACE. EXPECT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
EXTENDED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. RAISED THE CHANCES TO 60 AND 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST
FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE WAVE SHOULD WARM THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS LIQUID. HOWEVER...CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE SOME SNOW MIXING IN
SO PLAN TO HAVE A LITTLE MIX FOR A WHILE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST PAST THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO
MINNESOTA SATURDAY. STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS HAS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AND SHOWS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS ALREADY FRIDAY WHILE THE 04.00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE DIFFERENCES THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING
MUCH WETTER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH. NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS AT THIS POINT WHICH
FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KRST AROUND 03Z
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO LIFR BY 09Z IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 900 FT BY 03Z THEN FALLING TO 200 FT BY
09Z. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED LATE TONIGHT IN FOG AT KRST WITH
VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND 1/2 SM. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KLSE AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BKN CUMULUS CLOUD BASES RANGING FROM 3500 FT AT
KLSE TO AROUND 1700 FT AT KRST. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 02Z TONIGHT AT KLSE WITH CEILINGS AT
2000FT...LOWERING TO AROUND 1500FT BY 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR AT KRST AROUND 14Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 16Z. THE LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
IOWA AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...PRODUCING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND EAST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
141 AM CST SUN NOV 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP