Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/03/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE. SWATH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS AREA...AS PER
WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY. APPEARS THAT CLOUDS COULD BE
THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT EXPECTED WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL
PROBABLY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE TO TEMPS...DEPENDING ON
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST RUC AND HRRR INDICATING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES. WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS...CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
BRIEF...SO NO HILITES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL SEEM IN ORDER...BASED ON
LATEST RUC AND HRRR. WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS SOMETIME BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z FRIDAY...PER NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS NON EXISTANT...NOT EXPECTING WEATHER OR EVEN CEILINGS
BELOW 7000 FEET AGL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT
TO SHIFT MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOW LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM YESTERDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE. DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL WITH MORE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH AND WILL GO
BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 2-4 DEGREES.
LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP FCST DRY THRU NEXT TUE WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS
OF HIGHER LVL CLOUDINESS. AS FOR TEMPS A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NERN CO ON FRI AND DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOR
THE WEEKEND 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
NR SEASONAL LVLS. BY MON AND TUE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING
TREND WITH READINGS IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE ACROSS NERN CO. BY WED
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY HOWEVER NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS
EARLY AM WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15KT. NOT A CLEAR
SIGNAL ON AFTERNOON WINDS BUT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED BELOW 500MB. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
BJC. FOR DEN AND APA THE SIGNAL THE DIRECTION APPEARS MORE IFFY.
REGARDLES OF DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER
10KT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
700 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY TO OUR WEST AND
ULTIMATELY WILL BE MOVED FURTHER NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LOOKS TO
SKIRT BY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. A STRONGER COASTAL LOW COULD FORM
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SPOKE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. THE SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS DRY...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT PLACE...AND IT WAS
USED FOR THE ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN (CLOSE TO THE 0200 UTC TIME
FRAME).
OTHERWISE...THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER
(DEEPER TROF) THAN THE GFS AND WAS USED MORE HEAVILY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SLOW WEATHER RECOVERY FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE,
WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOW.
WHILE WHAT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, THE SHORT WAVES AND TRIGGERS CAN NOT BE CRITICIZED FOR
THEIR EFFORTS. PLENTY OF ECHOES ON THE 88DS, EVEN IF THEY ARE WEAK.
FOR THIS EVENING WE SHOULD BE LOSING SHORT WAVE SUPPORT, SO WE DID
SCALE BACK THE POPS WE WILL HAVE. AT THE END OF TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH THE CLOSING LOW.
WE MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN HOLDING OFF POPS TOWARD MORNING WEST.
OTHERWISE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND. LIKE LAST
NIGHT, WE THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE BREAKS LATER AT NIGHT,
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS MORE CLOUDS ALONG. IN SPITE OF THE
CLOUDS, MIN TEMPS LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT
AND WE DID ALSO IN THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS THOUGH SHOULD BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE FLAGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE CLOSED LOW PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA, OUR POPS ON FRIDAY ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE WRF-NMMB VS GFS MOS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH ZILCH.
AGAIN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS IF THAT IN MOST
AREAS.
WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
COLD POCKET ALOFT, THE MORNING TIMING OF THE PASSING OF THE FEATURE
WOULD CUT DOWN ON ITS POTENTIAL. THE FORECAST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE ARE SUFFICIENT FOR US TO INCLUDE AT LEAST SLGT CHCS IN
ALL PLACES DURING THE MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE
LOOK IS MORE OF LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA, WITH CHANCES CUTTING OFF FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE
CLOSED LOW EXITS.
THERMALLY THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY WARM BELOW 925MB AND THE
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WILL ALSO ASSIST. SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
ALOFT IS GOING TO HAVE TO FIGHT AN INHOSPITABLE FCST WET BULB TEMP.
THUS MENTION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FAR NORTHWEST.
BECAUSE OF THE KATABATIC FLOW, WE DID GO ALONG WITH THE STAT
GUIDANCE RIDE IN SPITE OF WHAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED SUNSHINE.
HOPEFULLY WE WERE NOT TOO BULLISH WITH THIS PROCESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED EASTERN UNITED STATES
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND, COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION, WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO AN EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
THAT FORMS ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. YESTERDAY
THE 12Z GFS HAD THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE JERSEY
COAST ON THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THIS WAS BASED ON A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE LAKES. TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE
SAME SETUP BY DELAYS THE CYCLOGENESIS UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHERE A SECOND AND EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN
FROM THE LAKES. IT IS THIS SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT TAKES ON
MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIVES FURTHER SOUTH.
THE GFS PHASES ITS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SOONER THAN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE COAST SO IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE COULD SEE RAIN
ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH POSSIBLY A MIX ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURE WISE, SINCE THE JET STREAM WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH IN
PLACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WESTERLY WIND
DIMINISHES. A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MARYLAND COULD
AFFECT KILG...KMIV AND POSSIBLY KACY BEFORE 0300 UTC. AT THIS
POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AND CEILINGS COULD RISE TO A MID DECK AFTER 0600 UTC. IN
FACT...FROM KPHL SOUTH AND EAST CLOUDS COULD SCATTERED OUT TOWARD
1200 UTC. A WESTERLY WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY NEAR 5000 FEET. THE
WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 1500 AND 1600 UTC...AND LAST THROUGH 2100 UTC. FOR MOST
FORECAST POINTS...WIND GUSTS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 23 KNOTS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. THUS...THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY YET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
OUR MARINE WATERS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE CRITERIA BEING
MET AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES. THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND MIXING LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER THE OCEAN, SO WE STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLIER THAN DELAWARE BAY. REGARDLESS THE INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WARMER WATER AS
FRIDAY PROGRESSES WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONDITIONS BEING
MET.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
COULD SPILL INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BAY LOOKS TO
LOSE THE STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE WE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ACROSS OUR WATERS TOO.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OFF OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS WILL CLIMB...POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 5-6 FEET.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HAYES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY TO OUR WEST AND
ULTIMATELY WILL BE MOVED FURTHER NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LOOKS TO
SKIRT BY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. A STRONGER COASTAL LOW COULD FORM
JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SPOKE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. THE SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS DRY...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT PLACE...AND IT WAS
USED FOR THE ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN (CLOSE TO THE 0200 UTC TIME
FRAME).
OTHERWISE...THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER
(DEEPER TROF) THAN THE GFS AND WAS USED MORE HEAVILY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SLOW WEATHER RECOVERY FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE,
WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOW.
WHILE WHAT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, THE SHORT WAVES AND TRIGGERS CAN NOT BE CRITICIZED FOR
THEIR EFFORTS. PLENTY OF ECHOES ON THE 88DS, EVEN IF THEY ARE WEAK.
FOR THIS EVENING WE SHOULD BE LOSING SHORT WAVE SUPPORT, SO WE DID
SCALE BACK THE POPS WE WILL HAVE. AT THE END OF TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH THE CLOSING LOW.
WE MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN HOLDING OFF POPS TOWARD MORNING WEST.
OTHERWISE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND. LIKE LAST
NIGHT, WE THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE BREAKS LATER AT NIGHT,
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS MORE CLOUDS ALONG. IN SPITE OF THE
CLOUDS, MIN TEMPS LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT
AND WE DID ALSO IN THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS THOUGH SHOULD BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE FLAGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE CLOSED LOW PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA, OUR POPS ON FRIDAY ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE WRF-NMMB VS GFS MOS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH ZILCH.
AGAIN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS IF THAT IN MOST
AREAS.
WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
COLD POCKET ALOFT, THE MORNING TIMING OF THE PASSING OF THE FEATURE
WOULD CUT DOWN ON ITS POTENTIAL. THE FORECAST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE ARE SUFFICIENT FOR US TO INCLUDE AT LEAST SLGT CHCS IN
ALL PLACES DURING THE MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE
LOOK IS MORE OF LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA, WITH CHANCES CUTTING OFF FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE
CLOSED LOW EXITS.
THERMALLY THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY WARM BELOW 925MB AND THE
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WILL ALSO ASSIST. SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
ALOFT IS GOING TO HAVE TO FIGHT AN INHOSPITABLE FCST WET BULB TEMP.
THUS MENTION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FAR NORTHWEST.
BECAUSE OF THE KATABATIC FLOW, WE DID GO ALONG WITH THE STAT
GUIDANCE RIDE IN SPITE OF WHAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED SUNSHINE.
HOPEFULLY WE WERE NOT TOO BULLISH WITH THIS PROCESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED EASTERN UNITED STATES
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND, COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION, WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO AN EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
THAT FORMS ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. YESTERDAY
THE 12Z GFS HAD THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE JERSEY
COAST ON THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THIS WAS BASED ON A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE LAKES. TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE
SAME SETUP BY DELAYS THE CYCLOGENESIS UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHERE A SECOND AND EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN
FROM THE LAKES. IT IS THIS SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT TAKES ON
MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIVES FURTHER SOUTH.
THE GFS PHASES ITS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SOONER THAN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE COAST SO IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE COULD SEE RAIN
ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH POSSIBLY A MIX ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURE WISE, SINCE THE JET STREAM WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH IN
PLACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 18Z TAFS WERE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC AS THE AIR MASS HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR THE KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD. WE DID MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRDG AND KABE AT
TIMES. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO OCCUR
AT TIMES AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN, WITH LOWER LEVEL VFR CIGS AT THE
REST OF OUR TERMINALS. LOWEST CIGS HIER TRRN AIRPORTS FARTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTHWEST), NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY FROM THE WEST AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING MORE OF A HEALTHY SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH NOT
MUCH GUSTINESS ABOVE 20 KNOTS.
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AT THE NORTHWEST TERMINALS
AND REMAIN SO ELSEWHERE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. FOR NOW
WITHOUT A STRONG INCREASE IN PRESSURE, WE OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUSTAINED. WINDS WERE THEN LOWERED OVERNIGHT.
TOO MANY CLOUDS FOR FOG TO FORM.
ON FRIDAY, WE REPEAT THE PROCESS AGAIN, BUT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR.
ALL CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND AGAIN, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AND ALSO NO
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST WITH ONCE AGAIN A HEALTHY
SUSTAINED SPEED DEVELOPING CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
OUR MARINE WATERS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE CRITERIA BEING
MET AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES. THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND MIXING LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER THE OCEAN, SO WE STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLIER THAN DELAWARE BAY. REGARDLESS THE INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WARMER WATER AS
FRIDAY PROGRESSES WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONDITIONS BEING
MET.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
COULD SPILL INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BAY LOOKS TO
LOSE THE STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE WE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ACROSS OUR WATERS TOO.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OFF OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS WILL CLIMB...POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 5-6 FEET.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
210 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW CONSISTS OF A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWED
DOWNSTREAM BY RIDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THEN FINALLY BACK INTO A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH UNDER DEEP LAYER WEST/NW FLOW. 12Z
KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
BELOW AROUND 700MB UNDERNEATH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS. PW VALUES IS ONLY
AROUND 1" WITH THIS PROFILE AND THIS OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP
SHOWER DEPTH/STRENGTH IN CHECK TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS SINKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION AS A RESULT OF YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A WEAK/NARROW ZONE
OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/QG FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE
WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND BE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD SPOIL
OUTDOOR PLANS. WILL END ALL SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD TO
POTENTIALLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...MAINLY MID 50S TO 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE ALONG WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR AND WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A DRY
DAY UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIRMASS. THEREFORE...NO LACK
OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW A GOOD DIURNAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/80 NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OF WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE DRY LOW
LEVELS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET UP A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO AND ALLOW NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE 50S WILL BE COMMON.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY UNDER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY THIS TIME AND
THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT TO ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRIDAY FORECAST. ENJOY!
&&
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE WILL DROP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON NORTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC
NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DROPPING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE GULF
WATERS BUT WILL PUSH IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT LAL WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP. EXPECT FOG OVERNIGHT TO BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OF THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT
OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT
ELSEWHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH ARE EXPECTED. THESE LOW
VALUES OF RH WILL COMBINE WITH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT NUMBERS OF
35 OR GREATER OVER INLAND SARASOTA AND LEE COUNTIES TO PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE THE LOW RH VALUES...ERC VALUES
ARE BELOW 35 AND WIND/DISPERSION INDICES WILL NOT SUPPORT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE RH VALUES BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 78 61 83 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 62 81 59 83 / 20 10 0 0
GIF 55 80 57 83 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 59 76 59 81 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 47 78 49 84 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 64 77 66 82 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION...BARRON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1045 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012
.UPDATE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW CONSISTS OF A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWED
DOWNSTREAM BY RIDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THEN FINALLY BACK INTO A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH UNDER DEEP LAYER WEST/NW FLOW. 12Z
KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
BELOW AROUND 700MB UNDERNEATH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS. PW VALUES IS ONLY
AROUND 1" WITH THIS PROFILE AND THIS OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP
SHOWER DEPTH/STRENGTH IN CHECK TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS SINKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION AS A RESULT OF YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A WEAK/NARROW ZONE
OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/QG FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE
EASTWARD OFF THE GULF...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...AND
FOR THOSE THAT DO SEE THE SHOWERS...THE DURATION OF RAIN WILL BE
SHORT.
LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADARS...IT APPEARS THAT THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS
SOMEWHAT WINNING THE BATTLE AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY OUT
THERE IS RATHER DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE NOT
ORGANIZED...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY
ROBUST AND LOOKS TO PUT A SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM GENERALLY THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND BE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD SPOIL
OUTDOOR PLANS. WILL END ALL SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD TO
POTENTIALLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...MAINLY MID 50S TO 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER EASTERN CANADA...COMBINED WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FLORIDA. MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA TODAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE AREA. NAM CONTINUES TO OVER DO THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS
SO WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE MORE REASONABLE GFS POPS. EXPECT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD TODAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF RENEWS ITS HOLD ON THE AREA
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO LESS THAN AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VISBY
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE FROM PGD SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 59 78 63 / 30 10 0 0
FMY 81 63 81 60 / 30 20 10 10
GIF 80 57 79 58 / 30 10 0 0
SRQ 79 60 79 59 / 40 10 10 10
BKV 79 49 79 51 / 30 10 0 0
SPG 78 63 78 67 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...BARRON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
954 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL -SHRA OR SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SYNOPTICALLY TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD SEND PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCTD -SHRA
PIVOTING WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE LAKE. WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHETHER
SHRA WILL SURVIVE OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN IF THEY DO SURVIVE IMPACT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ON OPERATIONS. LAKE EFFECT CIGS LOOK PROBABLE
WITH BASES LIKELY HIGHER END MVFR...SHOULD SEE SOME TREND TOWARD
A DIURNAL SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...AM MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPII VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
650 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL -SHRA OR SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SYNOPTICALLY TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD SEND PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCTD -SHRA
PIVOTING WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE LAKE. WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHETHER
SHRA WILL SURVIVE OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN IF THEY DO SURVIVE IMPACT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ON OPERATIONS. LAKE EFFECT CIGS LOOK PROBABLE
WITH BASES LIKELY HIGHER END MVFR...SHOULD SEE SOME TREND TOWARD
A DIURNAL SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...AM MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPII VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN IS A STRONG RIDGE WHICH IS IN ADVANCE OF A
RATHER STRONG SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS
WERE CLOSE WITH MAYBE BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
HEIGHT FIELD. SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE THAT THE ECMWF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS
TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRATUS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE RUC...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THIS NICELY...AND
THE HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGING/SOME
COOLING FROM THE FRONT LOOK TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST HALF. GOING BY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB FROM YESTERDAY...CURRENT BIAS...AND
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST LATELY SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISE IN MAXES IN THE WEST. WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE
STRATUS AND FRONT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THIS.
HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTEST GRADIENT OCCUR IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SO WINDS COULD GET INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY IN THIS AREA.
LOOK TO GET DOWNSLOPE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. FRONT STARTS MOVING IN LATE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION AND WILL MAKE THE MINS COOLEST HERE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z WITH
STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND COULD HINDER THE HEATING.
MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND CURRENT
FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. ALSO
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIAS...AND LATEST 2
METER/NWP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND AS NEXT SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP OFF TO ALLOW FOR COOLER MINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGH WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA...THUS KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE...CLEAR SKIES AND NO MAJOR AIR
MASS CHANGES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE
EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
MCK AND GLD. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT GLD DUE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO...GUSTING TO 24KTS. AT
MCK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...BRINGING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20KTS BE LATE
MORNING. WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PERIOD...THERE
IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
FOR TODAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS GO. THIS
COMPLICATED BY INCOMING FRONT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
00Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BELIEVE MIXING WILL OCCUR
BETTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AT THIS TIME. SO BELIEVE THE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. QUESTION THEN
BECOMES IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH IN THIS SAME
AREA. GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...BUFKIT...AND LOCAL WIND
GUST PROGRAM SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
AND WILL BE CLOSE. SO AT THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
FOR FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WILL
NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JJM/LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN IS A STRONG RIDGE WHICH IS IN ADVANCE OF A
RATHER STRONG SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS
WERE CLOSE WITH MAYBE BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
HEIGHT FIELD. SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE THAT THE ECMWF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS
TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRATUS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE RUC...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THIS NICELY...AND
THE HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGING/SOME
COOLING FROM THE FRONT LOOK TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST HALF. GOING BY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB FROM YESTERDAY...CURRENT BIAS...AND
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST LATELY SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISE IN MAXES IN THE WEST. WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE
STRATUS AND FRONT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THIS.
HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTEST GRADIENT OCCUR IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SO WINDS COULD GET INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY IN THIS AREA.
LOOK TO GET DOWNSLOPE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. FRONT STARTS MOVING IN LATE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION AND WILL MAKE THE MINS COOLEST HERE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z WITH
STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND COULD HINDER THE HEATING.
MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND CURRENT
FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. ALSO
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIAS...AND LATEST 2
METER/NWP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND AS NEXT SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP OFF TO ALLOW FOR COOLER MINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGH WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA...THUS KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE...CLEAR SKIES AND NO MAJOR AIR
MASS CHANGES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE
EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRATUS FIELD
OVER NEBRASKA WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMCK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THOSE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT KGLD. FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFTING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
FOR TODAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS GO. THIS
COMPLICATED BY INCOMING FRONT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
00Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BELIEVE MIXING WILL OCCUR
BETTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AT THIS TIME. SO BELIEVE THE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. QUESTION THEN
BECOMES IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH IN THIS SAME
AREA. GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...BUFKIT...AND LOCAL WIND
GUST PROGRAM SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
AND WILL BE CLOSE. SO AT THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
FOR FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WILL
NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN IS A STRONG RIDGE WHICH IS IN ADVANCE OF A
RATHER STRONG SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS
WERE CLOSE WITH MAYBE BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
HEIGHT FIELD. SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE THAT THE ECMWF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS
TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRATUS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE RUC...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THIS NICELY...AND
THE HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGING/SOME
COOLING FROM THE FRONT LOOK TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST HALF. GOING BY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB FROM YESTERDAY...CURRENT BIAS...AND
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST LATELY SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISE IN MAXES IN THE WEST. WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE
STRATUS AND FRONT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THIS.
HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTEST GRADIENT OCCUR IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SO WINDS COULD GET INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY IN THIS AREA.
LOOK TO GET DOWNSLOPE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. FRONT STARTS MOVING IN LATE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION AND WILL MAKE THE MINS COOLEST HERE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z WITH
STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND COULD HINDER THE HEATING.
MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND CURRENT
FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. ALSO
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIAS...AND LATEST 2
METER/NWP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND AS NEXT SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP OFF TO ALLOW FOR COOLER MINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGH WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA...THUS KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE...CLEAR SKIES AND NO MAJOR AIR
MASS CHANGES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE
EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY...MAINLY AT KGLD...DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
FOR TODAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS GO. THIS
COMPLICATED BY INCOMING FRONT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
00Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BELIEVE MIXING WILL OCCUR
BETTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AT THIS TIME. SO BELIEVE THE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. QUESTION THEN
BECOMES IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH IN THIS SAME
AREA. GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...BUFKIT...AND LOCAL WIND
GUST PROGRAM SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
AND WILL BE CLOSE. SO AT THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
FOR FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WILL
NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1224 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WEAKEN FURTHER. THE LOW WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA BUT HRRR AND OTHER MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OF THE CWFA TNGT...WITH UPR
TROF AXIS CROSSING THE AREA LATE. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE
COLUMN FURTHER AS WINDS BECOME MORE WLY. SHRA WILL SHIFT TO HIGH
TERRAIN COMPLETELY. THE CAA WILL GIVE A COOLER DAY ON FRI...BUT
STILL NEAR TO ABV NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT TO LABRADOR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
GENERATING UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO AN
END THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR COMES INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE COLD POINT OF THE WEEK AS
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PUSH LOWS INTO THE 20S
STATEWIDE AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
STATE.
MONDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE REGION. TUESDAY
A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.... HOWEVER THE TREND WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS IS TO KEEP THE LOW CENTER OUT TO SEA...SO
WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS FOR ELECTION DAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARDS
OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE TODAY UNDER UPR LVL LOW PRES.
EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH
PASSING MVFR. CHC FOR -SHRA IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY KLEB AND
KHIE.
LONG TERM...
MVFR IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
FOR HIE... VALLEY FOG RESULTING IN IFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT LEB HIE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS RADIATIONAL COOLING DRIVES
TEMPERATURES QUITE LOW. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT FOR THE MOMENT... AS MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE CHANGES IN DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY...BUT HAVE FALLEN BLO 5
FT WITHIN THE BAYS. HAVE DROPPED THE SCA THERE...AND EXTENDED THE
OUTER WATERS UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS ON THE WATERS... EXPECT SEAS TO
BUILD TO SCA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1210 PM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW...STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED OUR PROBABILITIES. LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHORTWAVE KEEPS SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE COOL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER LEFT WESTERN WI
AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN ROUGHLY 1-2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HASN`T HAPPENED SINCE SPRING OF
2011. WE WILL START NOVEMBER BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN TODAY AND THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 01.00Z MPX
SOUNDING AND RUC ANALYSES LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED EAST CENTRAL MN
SITTING AT ABOUT +3 C AT 850MB...OVER THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...MUCH OF
THE AREA HAS COOLED 1-3 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM 9-12Z...SO BY 15Z MOST OF EASTERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI WILL BE BETWEEN -4 AND -6 C AT 850MB. PLENTY OF
LOW STRATUS COMING DOWN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AS WELL. BESIDES A
FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CLOUDY
MORNING AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH MIXING BY 18Z TO
SCATTER OUT THE STATUS DECK...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT FOR CERTAIN BY
ANY MEANS. WE HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE RUC WHICH HANGS
ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE EC/GFS AND PARTLY TO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. WE BASICALLY HAVE 40% POPS IN
THERE NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WAS DISCUSSION OF
GOING LOWER...BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
THIS WILL NO DOUBT BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT EVEN WHERE IT DOES PRECIP.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE DRY NAM HAS SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ADIABATIC
OMEGA AND SATURATION ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EVEN THE EC PAINTS A STRIPE OF
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON
AND IT JUST SEEMED A LITTLE PREMATURE TO REVERT FROM 45-55 POPS TO
20 POPS AT THIS POINT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT THE ONSET ON FRIDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE
LIGHT SNOW HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MN
AND REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS. YESTERDAY...WE MENTIONED THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2"...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING LESS
LIKELY.
IN THE EXTENDED...NICE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM CARVING OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. LONGWAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVER
THE MIDWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS ACTUALLY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 01.00Z GFS AND EC
8-10 DAYS OUT WITH THIS TROUGH. GOT A FEW DAYS TO GO YET BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM CAN REALLY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP
AND EYE AS WE GET CLOSER TO VETERAN`S DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN FA AS A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE WEST. WITH STILL HIGH RH BLW 4K IN THE EASTERN
1/3 OF THE FA...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT025...WITH CIGS OF 3.5K FOR
RNH/EAU/MSP. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLDS.
BASED ON THE LATEST MOISTURE FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BELIEVE CIGS AFT THIS AFTN
WILL ONLY FALL TO ARND 9-11K...WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K
DEVELOPING WITH AN E/NE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NNW
THIS AFTN/EVENING AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 6 KTS AFT 00Z. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE/NE OVERNIGHT...WITH A PREDOMINATE NE/ENE WIND IN
THE MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 8 KTS.
KMSP...
KEPT CIGS THRU THE AFTN ARND 3.5K AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LCL/S
HOLD NEAR 3-4K. BY 23Z...CLDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT REMAIN ABV 9K.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT DECREASE AND HOLD ARND 6
KTS FROM THE N...THEN NE ON FRIDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT/SUN...VFR. ISOLD/SCT -RA/-SN. WINDS E AT 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. SE 5 KTS. ..JLT..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
CLF/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR CEILINGS AT KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS KRNH...KMSP AND KEAU EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS BETWEEN 015 AND 030 FROM NW TO SE. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ON THE DISSIPATION OF THE CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING PER
MOST GUIDANCE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT PREVAILS
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING EXPECTED FOR A TIME TONIGHT
BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 100 MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ND. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
-RA/-SN TO KAXN AND KRWF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 12-15
KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BECOMING LIGHT NE
TO EAST TONIGHT.
KMSP...A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS (025) THIS MORNING WITH
PREVAILING CONDITIONS RIGHT AROUND 035. SCT-BKN035-040 FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NO REAL PROBLEMS TONIGHT AND FRO MUCH OF
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FROM 150 TO 050
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS (320-330) AROUND 12 KNOTS
GUSTING 20 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT NE TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CEILINGS AOA 050. WINDS E AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH -RASN. WINDS E AT 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH -RA/-DZ. WINDS E AT 5 KTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012/
OVERVIEW...STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED OUR PROBABILITIES. LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHORTWAVE KEEPS SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE COOL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER LEFT WESTERN WI
AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN ROUGHLY 1-2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HASN`T HAPPENED SINCE SPRING OF
2011. WE WILL START NOVEMBER BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN TODAY AND THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 01.00Z MPX
SOUNDING AND RUC ANALYSES LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED EAST CENTRAL MN
SITTING AT ABOUT +3 C AT 850MB...OVER THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...MUCH OF
THE AREA HAS COOLED 1-3 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM 9-12Z...SO BY 15Z MOST OF EASTERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI WILL BE BETWEEN -4 AND -6 C AT 850MB. PLENTY OF
LOW STRATUS COMING DOWN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AS WELL. BESIDES A
FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CLOUDY
MORNING AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH MIXING BY 18Z TO
SCATTER OUT THE STATUS DECK...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT FOR CERTAIN BY
ANY MEANS. WE HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE RUC WHICH HANGS
ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE EC/GFS AND PARTLY TO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. WE BASICALLY HAVE 40% POPS IN
THERE NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WAS DISCUSSION OF
GOING LOWER...BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
THIS WILL NO DOUBT BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT EVEN WHERE IT DOES PRECIP.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE DRY NAM HAS SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ADIABATIC
OMEGA AND SATURATION ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EVEN THE EC PAINTS A STRIPE OF
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON
AND IT JUST SEEMED A LITTLE PREMATURE TO REVERT FROM 45-55 POPS TO
20 POPS AT THIS POINT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT THE ONSET ON FRIDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE
LIGHT SNOW HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MN
AND REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS. YESTERDAY...WE MENTIONED THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2"...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING LESS
LIKELY.
IN THE EXTENDED...NICE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM CARVING OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. LONGWAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVER
THE MIDWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS ACTUALLY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 01.00Z GFS AND EC
8-10 DAYS OUT WITH THIS TROUGH. GOT A FEW DAYS TO GO YET BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM CAN REALLY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP
AND EYE AS WE GET CLOSER TO VETERAN`S DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW...STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED OUR PROBABILITIES. LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHORTWAVE KEEPS SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE COOL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER LEFT WESTERN WI
AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN ROUGHLY 1-2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HASN`T HAPPENED SINCE SPRING OF
2011. WE WILL START NOVEMBER BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN TODAY AND THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 01.00Z MPX
SOUNDING AND RUC ANALYSES LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED EAST CENTRAL MN
SITTING AT ABOUT +3 C AT 850MB...OVER THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...MUCH OF
THE AREA HAS COOLED 1-3 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM 9-12Z...SO BY 15Z MOST OF EASTERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI WILL BE BETWEEN -4 AND -6 C AT 850MB. PLENTY OF
LOW STRATUS COMING DOWN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AS WELL. BESIDES A
FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CLOUDY
MORNING AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH MIXING BY 18Z TO
SCATTER OUT THE STATUS DECK...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT FOR CERTAIN BY
ANY MEANS. WE HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE RUC WHICH HANGS
ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE EC/GFS AND PARTLY TO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. WE BASICALLY HAVE 40% POPS IN
THERE NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WAS DISCUSSION OF
GOING LOWER...BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
THIS WILL NO DOUBT BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT EVEN WHERE IT DOES PRECIP.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE DRY NAM HAS SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ADIABATIC
OMEGA AND SATURATION ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EVEN THE EC PAINTS A STRIPE OF
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON
AND IT JUST SEEMED A LITTLE PREMATURE TO REVERT FROM 45-55 POPS TO
20 POPS AT THIS POINT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT THE ONSET ON FRIDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE
LIGHT SNOW HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MN
AND REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS. YESTERDAY...WE MENTIONED THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2"...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING LESS
LIKELY.
IN THE EXTENDED...NICE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM CARVING OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. LONGWAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVER
THE MIDWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS ACTUALLY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 01.00Z GFS AND EC
8-10 DAYS OUT WITH THIS TROUGH. GOT A FEW DAYS TO GO YET BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM CAN REALLY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP
AND EYE AS WE GET CLOSER TO VETERAN`S DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH AN MVFR STRATUS DECK LASTING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BREAKING UP BY LATE
MORNING. A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.
KMSP...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK REACHING THE
AIRPORT BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z...BUT OPTIMISTIC THAT CEILINGS WILL
STAY ABOVE 1800FT. THE BROKEN DECK SHOULD RAISE AND SCATTER OUT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS E AT 05KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AND -RASN. WINDS E AT 05KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS S AT 5 TO 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
CLF/JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1041 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
LINE FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PRODUCING
PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING. RICHMOND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...AND TO MAKE A COUPLE
OF ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BASED ON
TRENDS AS OF 02 UTC. LOW-LEVEL EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW BATCH OF COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MADE IT ALL THE WAY
TO LIVINGSTON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AIR MASS...AND EXPECTED
EROSION ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WILL END UP BEING
THE FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT INTO THU. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BEGUN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AS OF MID EVENING...AND
THAT VERIFIES THE MODEL-SIMULATED LEE TROUGH THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
WINDS SWINGING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT LIVINGSTON BY ABOUT
06 UTC...AND EVEN AT BILLINGS BEFORE MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TOO.
HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...WE EXPECT STRATUS TO AT LEAST BUILD INTO PLACES
LIKE BAKER AND EKALAKA. THAT IDEA HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE SREF
OUTPUT FROM 15 AND 21 UTC /WHICH CALLS FOR A 95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL IN THOSE AREAS/ AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. A
QUESTION MARK WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE STRATUS MAKES ITS WAY ALL
THE WAY TO MILES CITY...WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED DATA SETS KEEPING
THAT AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. FOG WAS ALSO GIVEN SOME
CONSIDERATION...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FROM REALLY SETTING IN UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS
DECK. HOWEVER...WE DID REDUCE HIGHS FOR BAKER AND EKALAKA BY ABOUT
5 F FOR THU OUT OF RESPECT TO CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND STRATUS
THAT MAY LINGER FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH COOL
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETREATING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. ITS A MOIST FLOW ALOFT...SO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THIS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA BUT IT DOES APPEAR
DOWNSLOPE COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS. DID
NOT PAINT THIS DETAIL YET AS RIDGE WOULD NOT HAVE TO AMPLIFY MUCH
MORE TO PUSH THE COOLER AIR FURTHER WEST AND SHUT DOWNSLOPE OFF.
OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A COOL DOWN BUT AIR ALOFT IS WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALLOW GUSTY
WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
KLVM...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FROM KMLS TO KBHK...EXPECT TO SEE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KBIL WEST TO
KLVM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM KBIL TO KSHR AND WEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CHURCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/064 043/054 035/049 038/062 037/060 035/055 035/054
00/B 23/W 11/B 11/B 11/N 23/W 33/W
LVM 044/066 039/055 034/046 031/058 030/056 028/050 028/049
02/T 42/W 12/W 22/W 22/W 33/W 33/W
HDN 035/066 040/056 032/051 035/063 036/064 034/057 034/056
00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 33/W
MLS 036/060 038/048 030/048 034/061 035/059 033/055 033/054
00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 037/065 039/054 034/047 035/061 036/060 034/055 034/054
00/B 13/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W
BHK 033/049 034/047 028/043 033/059 033/056 031/053 031/052
00/E 13/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 22/W
SHR 039/065 036/053 030/048 033/060 032/058 030/052 030/051
00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
639 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.AVIATION...FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RAP BOUNDARY LAYER RH
FIELD...PUSHES LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND LIFR CIGS...TO ROUGHLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM 50W OF KVTN...TO 20NE OF KLBF THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING THURSDAY. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STRATUS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE KVTN TERMINAL ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS THIS AM...WILL SCATTER OUT IFR CIGS LATER THIS
MORNING IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR THAT TERMINAL. AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH NO IFR CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT BOTH TERMINALS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND HAS JUST PUSHED INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
FILLING IN BEHIND. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY LARGE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOVEMBER STARTING OUT TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST...AT LEAST TEMPS AND
CLOUD WISE. NEAR TERM MODELS...HRRR/RAP...CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTEND OF THE STRATUS INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN ALSO DELAYS THE DISSIPATION FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO A MORE CLOUDY
AND COOLER FORECAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF BBW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THE SHALLOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST
REBOUNDING NICELY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TO AROUND 70.
STRATUS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S THEN AS THE CLOUDS BREAK TEMPS
SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 50S. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHALLOW STRATUS TO BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST LAST WEEK
THE MODELS WERE TOO QUICK TO LIFT THE STRATUS. THUS AM CONCERNED
AREAS FROM BBW TO ANW AND POINTS EAST MAY END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH PAC NW SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES THEN TURNING MORE TO THE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 70S TO THE AREA.
TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO N DAKOTA...WITH COOLER
AIR CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE SW. THEN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES SE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS SEEN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL.
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...A RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THEN BUILD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NW
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAY EVEN
RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
355 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND HAS JUST PUSHED INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
FILLING IN BEHIND. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY LARGE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOVEMBER STARTING OUT TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST...AT LEAST TEMPS AND
CLOUD WISE. NEAR TERM MODELS...HRRR/RAP...CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTEND OF THE STRATUS INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN ALSO DELAYS THE DISSIPATION FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO A MORE CLOUDY
AND COOLER FORECAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF BBW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THE SHALLOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST
REBOUNDING NICELY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TO AROUND 70.
STRATUS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S THEN AS THE CLOUDS BREAK TEMPS
SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 50S. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHALLOW STRATUS TO BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST LAST WEEK
THE MODELS WERE TOO QUICK TO LIFT THE STRATUS. THUS AM CONCERNED
AREAS FROM BBW TO ANW AND POINTS EAST MAY END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH PAC NW SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES THEN TURNING MORE TO THE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 70S TO THE AREA.
TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO N DAKOTA...WITH COOLER
AIR CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE SW. THEN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES SE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS SEEN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL.
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...A RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THEN BUILD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NW
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAY EVEN
RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RAP BOUNDARY LAYER RH
FIELD PUSHES LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND LIFR CIGS...TO ROUGHLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM 50W OF KVTN...TO 20NE OF KLBF THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING THURSDAY. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT
EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STRATUS MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE KVTN
TERMINAL ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS THIS AM...WILL SCATTER OUT
IFR CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR THAT
TERMINAL. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH NO IFR CONDS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT BOTH
TERMINALS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A HIGH
LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1003 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1000PM UPDATE...
APPEARS PREV FCST THINKING STILL HOLDS TRUE. CONCERNS STILL EXIST
FOR SOME PATCHY -FRDZ OVERNIGHT IN N MTNS AND WILL KEEP SOME
WORDING IN WX GRIDS.
730PM UPDATE...
SOLID DECK OF 4 TO 5 THSD FOOT CLDS INVADING FROM NW...AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV THIS EVE. USED LATEST RUC RH FIELDS
ARND 1KM AGL AS A BASE FOR SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. TRICK IS SW EXTENT
OF THIS CLD SHIELD. THINK MUCH OF TRI STATE AREA WILL STAY VOID OF
THIS WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WILL ORIENT A NW TO SE AXIS
FROM UNI TO CRW TO N OF BKW...AND POINTS N...TO PAINT IN MOST
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER TONIGHT. NEUTRAL TMP ADVECTION NOTED AT H85
TONIGHT ALONG THIS AXIS SO FEEL GOOD ABOUT GOING OVC ACROSS N WV.
SOME LIFT BENEATH H8 ON UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS N MTNS MAY SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW -SHSN. HOWEVER...WITH STOUT SUBSIDENCE ABV -10C...AM
CONCERNED FOR SOME PATCHY -FR DZ. WILL CONT MENTION IN WX GRIDS
ATTM.
PEAKED OUT INTO TOMORROW TO PUSH BACK POPS ACROSS NE KY/S WV UNTIL
LATE AFTN BASED ON LATEST MDL RUNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER 500MB LOW PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. GOOD FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. DESPITE THIS...WILL
RAMP UP POPS AGAIN TO LOW/MID CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY WEBSTER COUNTY
AND POINTS NORTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND TRAPPED
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DO HAVE A CONCERN HOWEVER WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST IN THOSE AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL DRY AT
-10C WITH GOOD SATURATION ONLY EXTENDING TO ABOUT -7C TO -8C AND
SFC TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING. TOUGH CALL ON THIS REGARDING PRECIP
TYPE HOWEVER AS OFTENTIMES IT SEEMS SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA WOULD
INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE YET SNOW IS STILL THE RESULT. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE TWO TO FIVE HUNDREDTHS ROUGHLY. WILL LEAVE ANY
ICE ACCUM OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK WITH SUBSEQUENT DATA.
PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. HEIGHTS INITIALLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES AWAY FROM AREA BUT ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY ESSENTIALLY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NW
DURING THE MORNING TO ZONAL BY END OF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD FROM SFC LOW OVER WEST/CENTRAL TENN TO AROUND THE
NC/VA BORDER BY LATE AFT SATURDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
NOTED ON 300K-305K SFCS WELL ABOVE AGL AND THE SOUNDING IS VERY
WEAKLY CONVECTIVE. BUT AS PREV FCST NOTED...MUCH OF THE FORCING IS
FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE AND FLOW AT H85 AND H7 ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL
TO WARM FRONT...SO NOT REALLY AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. ELECTED TO
SLOW DOWN POPS JUST A TAD BUT PREV FCST STILL HAD A GENERAL GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIP MOVING INTO THE SW ZONES BY END OF PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG
IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
LIGHT GIVEN VERY ACUTE ANGLE ON PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 295 AND
300 K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT GIVEN THERMAL
FIELDS. EVEN WHERE NEAR 0C AT H85...THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO GET
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS LOWLANDS. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SAT NT BUT HAVE LOW
CHANCE THERE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM.
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUN BUT UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND. THIS FEATURE EXITS FIRST THING MON
MORNING...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE FOR A NICE START TO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
WITH PRECIPITATION HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT...LOWS IN THE 20S TO
AROUND FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S WHERE THE HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
PACK IS...THE SLOW MELT CONTINUES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND CREEK ISSUES WHERE STORM DEBRIS CREATES
BLOCKAGES. IT LOOKS LIKE SWE VALUES IN THE SNOW PACK ARE DOWN TO
THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ADJMET ON TEMPERATURES EARLY ON AND THEN
BIAS CORRECTED CONSALL - OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES INVOLVED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS PERIOD.
THIS WOULD HAVE A STORM SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY
GRAZING THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. A WARM FRONT WOULD THEN PUSH
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE VALID
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EKN...WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WRING OUT A
SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN PATCHY -FZ DZ.
WILL LEAVE BOTH OF THIS OUT OF TAF ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE BUT
WILL MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...A WEST/NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AROUND 5 TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT...GUSTING 15 TO 20KTS ACROSS
HIGH TERRAIN ON SAT.
A WEAK SYS WILL PASS MAINLY TO S THRU TN VALLEY LATE SAT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS
S WV/SW VA TOWARD THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG HEIGHTS AND PRECIP CONDITIONS
AT EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 11/03/12
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
800 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SOLID DECK OF 4 TO 5 THSD FOOT CLDS INVADING FROM NW...AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV THIS EVE. USED LATEST RUC RH FIELDS
ARND 1KM AGL AS A BASE FOR SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. TRICK IS SW EXTENT
OF THIS CLD SHIELD. THINK MUCH OF TRI STATE AREA WILL STAY VOID OF
THIS WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WILL ORIENT A NW TO SE AXIS
FROM UNI TO CRW TO N OF BKW...AND POINTS N...TO PAINT IN MOST
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER TONIGHT. NEUTRAL TMP ADVECTION NOTED AT H85
TONIGHT ALONG THIS AXIS SO FEEL GOOD ABOUT GOING OVC ACROSS N WV.
SOME LIFT BENEATH H8 ON UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS N MTNS MAY SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW -SHSN. HOWEVER...WITH STOUT SUBSIDENCE ABV -10C...AM
CONCERNED FOR SOME PATCHY -FR DZ. WILL CONT MENTION IN WX GRIDS
ATTM.
PEAKED OUT INTO TOMORROW TO PUSH BACK POPS ACROSS NE KY/S WV UNTIL
LATE AFTN BASED ON LATEST MDL RUNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER 500MB LOW PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. GOOD FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. DESPITE THIS...WILL
RAMP UP POPS AGAIN TO LOW/MID CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY WEBSTER COUNTY
AND POINTS NORTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND TRAPPED
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DO HAVE A CONCERN HOWEVER WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST IN THOSE AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL DRY AT
-10C WITH GOOD SATURATION ONLY EXTENDING TO ABOUT -7C TO -8C AND
SFC TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING. TOUGH CALL ON THIS REGARDING PRECIP
TYPE HOWEVER AS OFTENTIMES IT SEEMS SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA WOULD
INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE YET SNOW IS STILL THE RESULT. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE TWO TO FIVE HUNDREDTHS ROUGHLY. WILL LEAVE ANY
ICE ACCUM OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK WITH SUBSEQUENT DATA.
PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. HEIGHTS INITIALLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES AWAY FROM AREA BUT ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY ESSENTIALLY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NW
DURING THE MORNING TO ZONAL BY END OF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD FROM SFC LOW OVER WEST/CENTRAL TENN TO AROUND THE
NC/VA BORDER BY LATE AFT SATURDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
NOTED ON 300K-305K SFCS WELL ABOVE AGL AND THE SOUNDING IS VERY
WEAKLY CONVECTIVE. BUT AS PREV FCST NOTED...MUCH OF THE FORCING IS
FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE AND FLOW AT H85 AND H7 ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL
TO WARM FRONT...SO NOT REALLY AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. ELECTED TO
SLOW DOWN POPS JUST A TAD BUT PREV FCST STILL HAD A GENERAL GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIP MOVING INTO THE SW ZONES BY END OF PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG
IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
LIGHT GIVEN VERY ACUTE ANGLE ON PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 295 AND
300 K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT GIVEN THERMAL
FIELDS. EVEN WHERE NEAR 0C AT H85...THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO GET
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS LOWLANDS. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SAT NT BUT HAVE LOW
CHANCE THERE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM.
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUN BUT UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND. THIS FEATURE EXITS FIRST THING MON
MORNING...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE FOR A NICE START TO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
WITH PRECIPITATION HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT...LOWS IN THE 20S TO
AROUND FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S WHERE THE HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
PACK IS...THE SLOW MELT CONTINUES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND CREEK ISSUES WHERE STORM DEBRIS CREATES
BLOCKAGES. IT LOOKS LIKE SWE VALUES IN THE SNOW PACK ARE DOWN TO
THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ADJMET ON TEMPERATURES EARLY ON AND THEN
BIAS CORRECTED CONSALL - OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES INVOLVED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS PERIOD.
THIS WOULD HAVE A STORM SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY
GRAZING THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. A WARM FRONT WOULD THEN PUSH
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE VALID
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EKN...WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WRING OUT A
SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN PATCHY -FZ DZ.
WILL LEAVE BOTH OF THIS OUT OF TAF ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE BUT
WILL MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...A WEST/NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AROUND 5 TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT...GUSTING 15 TO 20KTS ACROSS
HIGH TERRAIN ON SAT.
A WEAK SYS WILL PASS MAINLY TO S THRU TN VALLEY LATE SAT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS
S WV/SW VA TOWARD THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG HEIGHTS AND PRECIP CONDITIONS
AT EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 11/03/12
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...50/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. A
WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF SALEM. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW PRESSURE INSIDE 130W
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THIS LOW IS UNDERGOING CYCLOLYSIS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
EMBEDDED VORT MAX AND MINI TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AN
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH ONTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY PULSE UP IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 4 HRS. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATER SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
THUNDER COVERAGE AND WORDING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE SHADOWING WILL BE
STRONGEST. SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER 09Z OR SO. SPLIT OVERNIGHT
POP GRIDS INTO 3 HR SEGMENTS TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS GENERAL
EVOLUTION.
MODELS DO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES. THE RUC...WHOSE WINDS WILL A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE
LAST NIGHT...KEEPS 925MB 10 KTS LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT SO EVEN WINDIER
LOCATIONS LIKE GARIBALDI SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
AS THE LOW SPREADS INLAND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH TO NORTH SO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
35 MPH ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DEEP UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS WINDS COMING DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COLLIDE WITH WINDS
COMING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE WHERE
AND IF THIS WILL DEVELOP REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT BEST. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE MORE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR EAST...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS SOMEWHAT REMINISCENT OF A SIMILAR EVENT THIS PAST SPRING THAT
PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER VANCOUVER AND POINTS EAST.
EITHER WAY...SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.
WITH SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. TWEAKED THE AREAL
COVERAGE TO EMPHASIZE THE ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS LARGELY ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE
MADE. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
TEMPS TO CONTINUE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS SNOW ONLY ON THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THE AIRMASS
UNSTABLE WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
WITH SHOWERS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INLAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INLAND THU MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECT SEAS IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY...THEN
STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
PDT THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM TO
9 PM PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
905 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. A
WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF SALEM. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW PRESSURE INSIDE 130W
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THIS LOW IS UNDERGOING CYCLOLYSIS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
EMBEDDED VORT MAX AND MINI TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AN
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH ONTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY PULSE UP IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 4 HRS. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATER SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
THUNDER COVERAGE AND WORDING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE SHADOWING WILL BE
STRONGEST. SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER 09Z OR SO. SPLIT OVERNIGHT
POP GRIDS INTO 3 HR SEGMENTS TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS GENERAL
EVOLUTION.
MODELS DO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES. THE RUC...WHOSE WINDS WILL A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE
LAST NIGHT...KEEPS 925MB 10 KTS LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT SO EVEN WINDIER
LOCATIONS LIKE GARIBALDI SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
AS THE LOW SPREADS INLAND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE
NORTH-SOUTH SO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
35 KT ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH.
DEEP UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS WINDS COMING DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COLLIDE WITH WINDS
COMING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE WHERE
AND IF THIS WILL DEVELOP REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT BEST. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE MORE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR EAST...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS SOMEWHAT REMINISCENT OF A SIMILAR EVENT THIS PAST SPRING THAT
PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER VANCOUVER AND POINTS EAST.
EITHER WAY...SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.
WITH SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. TWEAKED THE AREAL
COVERAGE TO EMPHASIZE THE ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS LARGELY ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE
MADE. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
TEMPS TO CONTINUE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS SNOW ONLY ON THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THE AIRMASS
UNSTABLE WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
WITH SHOWERS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INLAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INLAND THU MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECT SEAS IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY...THEN
STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
PDT THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM TO
9 PM PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1112 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
IFR/LIFR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. LIFR
VSBY LIKELY FROM K2WX-KRAP WHERE STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BACK INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SATELLITE HAS EXTENSIVE
AREA OF LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING
REVOLVES AROUND THE STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. 18Z NAM/21Z RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOLID STRATUS DECK
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
00Z KBIS/KGGW SOUNDINGS PUT THE TOP OF STRATUS DECK AROUND 4000FT
MSL. DEPTH OF STRATUS WILL ALLOW IT TO INTERSECT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WITH THE STRATUS AND ALSO
ADD MENTION OF FOG.
THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE...BUT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE RAPID CITY AREA IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012/
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 110W WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE TO NEAR 105W BY
12Z THURSDAY AND THEN FLATTEN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROF. SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST WARD AFTER
CROSSING THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. LOWERED POPS ON FRIDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE.
AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING COOLER...MORE
MOIST AIR INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...PROBABLY REACHING THE BLACK HILLS AND RAPID CITY
AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP QUICKLY THURSDAY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH AND WEST TO NORTH AND EAST.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...WITH BROAD RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAINLY
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY
INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
637 PM PDT Fri Nov 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A drying and warming trend will slowly return to much of the
Columbia Basin courtesy of a strengthening ridge of high pressure.
Weak systems brushing the ridge will bring some light rain at
times to the Cascades and mountains near the Canadian border.
Much cooler and unsettled weather will likely arrive by the end of
the week. Temperatures will likely be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: forecast update sent to increase PoPs and coverage from
the west through the rest of the night. Regional radar trends show
a modest band of precipitation from northwest Washington to north-
central Oregon. Some of the heavier precipitation has been found
west of Yakima, at least in terms of the reflectivity signal.
Latest HRRR runs and radar extrapolation brings this precipitation
into the western CWA between 03-06Z (8 PM to 11 PM) and eastward
through the remainder of the night.
The quandary: how well will it hold together as it moves off the
higher terrain? I expect it will weaken some, limiting how much
actually is capable of being measured/reaching the ground. However
the radar returns warrant at least adding scattered to isolated
showers across the Basin this evening, expanding through Spokane
area and Palouse late tonight into the overnight in isolated
fashion.
I added some fog near the Cascades and the Basin Saturday morning,
where some cloud breaks are possible late in the overnight. With
incoming mid and high clouds determining coverage and intensity
and duration of any fog will be difficult. As such I left it as
only patchy fog. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Currently clouds are on the increase for sites closer to
the Cascades while the eastern TAF sites begin to clear out. Have a
chance for VCSH for EAT around 02Z as a weak system moves over the
Cascade crest. As the system moves to the east..only expect clouds
for eastern TAF sites. Lowered CIGS to MVFR for KSFF and KGEG sites
as the system moves from east to west. Have included fog for sites
KEAT..KMWH..KCOE and KLWS but confidence is low as to whether cloud
cover could limit this. Due to fog went ahead and lowered VIS to
have IFR conditions for identified sites. /Fliehman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 55 44 56 45 59 / 20 20 20 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 41 54 43 56 44 58 / 20 30 30 20 10 10
Pullman 44 58 45 57 46 62 / 20 20 10 20 10 0
Lewiston 44 60 47 61 48 64 / 20 10 10 20 0 0
Colville 44 54 43 57 43 61 / 30 40 40 40 20 20
Sandpoint 42 52 44 54 41 58 / 20 50 60 50 20 20
Kellogg 38 47 42 50 43 55 / 20 30 30 30 10 20
Moses Lake 42 58 45 61 45 60 / 50 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 44 55 48 61 46 59 / 50 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 45 55 44 59 43 59 / 50 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1041 PM PDT Wed Oct 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will spread rain into eastern Washington and
north Idaho tonight. Thursday will be a showery and breezy
day, with drier but continued mostly cloudy conditions through the
weekend. No significant storm systems are expected through the
region until late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Low pressure continues to rotate off the WA/OR coastline,
while the occluded front pushes across the Cascades. Moisture
deepening along and ahead of the front is starting to saturate the
atmosphere and showers are increasing over the Basin to Okanogan
highlands. These will expand eastward through the early overnight
as the occluded front moves through. However mainly light
precipitation amounts are expected.
NAM/SREF and HRRR 3KM data shows a couple waves of precipitation
through Thursday morning, with brief breaks between both. The
first one as described above and a second round of precipitation
that should develop later in the overnight around the Cascades and
Basin, after about 2-3 AM, before expanding east toward the
eastern third of Washington and north Idaho late in the overnight
and early Thursday morning. Getting the above timing described in
the ZFP is difficult, so looking at the PFM or posted grids might
give better resolution to the above thinking.
Otherwise the forecast is on track, save for minor adjustments to
reduce overnight lows a tad over the northeast and to add patchy
fog over the northeast valleys and over the Basin. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A occluded/cold front will pass through the area
through the early overnight. Light rain continue to develop along
and ahead of it, expanding across the eastern TAF sites between
06-09z. Precipitation is then expected to redevelop from the west
later overnight into Thursday as the primary low moves inland.
Expect occasional VFR/occasional MVFR and VIS with the first
round of precipitation, then MVFR and areas of IFR cigs with the
second round of precipitation. By Thursday afternoon conditions
will improve to VFR over the west and VFR/MVFR over the east, with
wind becoming gusty, but generally less than 25 kts. Then after
dark winds and the threat of precipitation as wanes. Yet low level
moisture and continued southerly flow will bring a threat of IFR
stratus over the eastern TAFs. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 51 42 53 40 56 / 60 70 30 10 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 46 50 42 53 38 56 / 70 80 50 10 0 10
Pullman 46 53 41 55 42 59 / 60 80 40 10 0 0
Lewiston 48 58 44 60 43 60 / 60 70 40 10 0 0
Colville 45 52 41 51 38 54 / 60 70 30 10 10 10
Sandpoint 42 50 43 52 37 54 / 70 80 60 10 10 10
Kellogg 45 46 41 50 37 51 / 80 90 80 20 10 10
Moses Lake 46 57 39 56 41 58 / 60 50 10 10 0 10
Wenatchee 46 56 42 54 42 57 / 60 30 10 10 0 10
Omak 45 53 39 54 42 55 / 60 60 10 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
924 PM PDT Wed Oct 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will spread rain into eastern Washington and
north Idaho tonight. Thursday will be a showery and breezy
day, with drier but continued mostly cloudy conditions through the
weekend. No significant storm systems are expected through the
region until late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Low pressure continues to rotate off the WA/OR coastline,
while the occluded front pushes across the Cascades. Moisture
deepening along and ahead of the front is starting to saturate the
atmosphere and showers are increasing over the Basin to Okanogan
highlands. These will expand eastward through the early overnight
as the occluded front moves through. However mainly light
precipitation amounts are expected.
NAM/SREF and HRRR 3KM data shows a couple waves of precipitation
through Thursday morning, with brief breaks between both. The
first one as described above and a second round of precipitation
that should develop later in the overnight around the Cascades and
Basin, after about 2-3 AM, before expanding east toward the
eastern third of Washington and north Idaho late in the overnight
and early Thursday morning. Getting the above timing described in
the ZFP is difficult, so looking at the PFM or posted grids might
give better resolution to the above thinking.
Otherwise the forecast is on track, save for minor adjustments to
reduce overnight lows a tad over the northeast and to add patchy
fog over the northeast valleys and over the Basin. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A occluded/cold front will pass through the area this
evening and early overnight. Light rain will develop from west to
east between 00-06z, before briefly shifting to southeast WA and
north ID and backing against the Cascades during the early
overnight. Precipitation is then expected to redevelop from the
west later overnight into Thursday as the primary low moves
inland. Expect occasional MVFR/isolated IFR cigs with the first
round of precipitation, then MVFR/areas of IFR cigs and VIS with
the second round of precipitation. By Thursday afternoon
conditions will improve to IFR over the west and IFR/MVFR over the
east, with wind becoming gusty increasing, but generally less than
25 kts. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 51 42 53 40 56 / 60 70 30 10 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 46 50 42 53 38 56 / 70 80 50 10 0 10
Pullman 46 53 41 55 42 59 / 60 80 40 10 0 0
Lewiston 48 58 44 60 43 60 / 60 70 40 10 0 0
Colville 45 52 41 51 38 54 / 60 70 30 10 10 10
Sandpoint 42 50 43 52 37 54 / 70 80 60 10 10 10
Kellogg 45 46 41 50 37 51 / 80 90 80 20 10 10
Moses Lake 46 57 39 56 41 58 / 60 50 10 10 0 10
Wenatchee 46 56 42 54 42 57 / 60 30 10 10 0 10
Omak 45 53 39 54 42 55 / 60 60 10 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...
1143 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
HAVE ADDED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST OF I-94. SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO
SHOW ABOUT A 0.75 KM DEEP POSITIVE INSTABILITY LAYER IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHALLOWS AS YOU HEAD
SOUTHWEST TOWARD KLSE SO HAVE LIMITED SHRA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ALSO SUGGEST SOME
REFLECTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME AREA...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME SPRINKLES AT KHYR AND KISW THIS
MORNING. DONT THINK IT IS A BIG DEAL BUT WANTED TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THESE ISOLATED SPRINKLES WOULD BE AROUND.
STILL BELIEVE THE CLOUDS OVER THE SWRN TWO-THIRDS WILL BECOME MORE
CELLULAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE SLOWED THE DECREASE
SLIGHTLY. HAVE ALSO WARMED THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 2-3F SW OF I-94
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EARLY JUMPING TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
01.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF
TROUGHING VERSUS RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD A BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW.
MODELS SHOW TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS POPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUD TREND EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS DROP ANOTHER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE AREA. DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP
LOWER LAYER DRY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MAKE PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
AS STATED ABOVE...TOOK A BLEND APPROACH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITION FOR US.
OTHERWISE...APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S//PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY//
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1143 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY BOUNCE
KRST INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 20-22Z. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH SUNDOWN...IN THE 20KT RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN.
VERY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO 18Z TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
341AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
FORECAST FOCUSED ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW YORK WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI/MN.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI/MN
AND NORTHERN IA. MEANWHILE...11-3.9MICRON IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS
SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WESTERLY
WIND WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AS OF 2
AM.
01.00Z MODELS SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION
GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MORE DETAIL ON THIS WILL BE PROVIDED BELOW IN THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
FOR TODAY...THE MID/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA...EXITING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. UPON ITS
EXIT...AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS FILED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AN MN WILL
SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG WITH MIXING IN THE LOWEST 925MB. NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R ERODE
THESE CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON WHEREAS THE RAP KEEPS CLOUDS IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MAY BE A BIT BULLISH ON CLOUD
COVER. STRATUS...WHICH ORIGINATED OVER A MORE MOIST SOURCE REGION
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...BELIEVE THE
NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE WITH DECREASING CLOUD
TREND BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 925MB LEVEL...AND WITH AMPLE
MIXING...SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS COMING DOWN FOR GUSTS TODAY. DECENT
COLD PUSH ALSO NOTED IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -4C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM MANITOBA/MN. WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM MT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME TEENS IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL WI.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NOT A LOT OF FORCING BEING DEPICTED WITH THIS WAVE AS FAR
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/PV-ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A VERY DRY NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH OUTFLOW FROM HIGH CENTERED
NEAR HUDSONS BAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND ALSO MOVED THEM SOUTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR WHERE BETTER//ALBEIT WEAK//FORCING IS BEING DEPICTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE IF ANYTHING DID PRECIPITATE...IT WOULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
MAINLY RAIN FROM LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
01.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF
TROUGHING VERSUS RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD A BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW.
MODELS SHOW TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS POPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUD TREND EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS DROP ANOTHER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE AREA. DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP
LOWER LAYER DRY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MAKE PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
AS STATED ABOVE...TOOK A BLEND APPROACH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITION FOR US.
OTHERWISE...APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S//PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY//
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
634 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES AROUND 11Z. IN ITS
WAKE...THERE IS A MASS OF STRATUS MARCHING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA
WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR...ALONG WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HOLES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE STRATUS
APPEARS TO BE A CERTAINTY TO MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES BY 15Z.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO ISSUES WITH THIS STRATUS:
1. WILL MVFR CEILINGS REACH THE TAF SITES -
ONE MODEL...THE 01.06Z HIRES WRF-NMM...WHICH IS HANDLING THE
OVERALL CLOUD EXTENT THE BEST SAYS THEY STAY OFF TO THE WEST AND
NORTH. MANY OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SIMILARLY TO THE HIRES WRF-NMM.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER MODEL...THE 01.10Z RAP AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
IT...SAYS THE MVFR MOVES INTO BOTH TAF SITES. THE RAP GENERALLY
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...BUT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE HAVE RAISED CEILINGS ABOUT 500
FT. THIS STILL PUTS KRST AT MVFR FROM 14-17Z...THOUGH. KLSE IS NOW
VFR.
2. WHEN DOES THE STRATUS CLEAR OUT -
AGAIN THE MODELS VARY...FOLLOWING THE MVFR CONCERNS. HERE AS WELL
HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY...WHICH MAKES SOME SENSE SEEING SOME
SMALL HOLES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THAT THE GROUND IS
DRY. USUALLY TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT A
WET GROUND IS REALLY HELPFUL. THUS...STILL THINKING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO DOMINATE TONIGHT.
COLD AIR FLOWING INTO THE TAF SITES COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD GUSTY WINDS AT
BOTH SITES TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
341AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
FORECAST FOCUSED ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW YORK WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI/MN.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI/MN
AND NORTHERN IA. MEANWHILE...11-3.9MICRON IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS
SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WESTERLY
WIND WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AS OF 2
AM.
01.00Z MODELS SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION
GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MORE DETAIL ON THIS WILL BE PROVIDED BELOW IN THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
FOR TODAY...THE MID/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA...EXITING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. UPON ITS
EXIT...AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS FILED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AN MN WILL
SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG WITH MIXING IN THE LOWEST 925MB. NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R ERODE
THESE CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON WHEREAS THE RAP KEEPS CLOUDS IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MAY BE A BIT BULLISH ON CLOUD
COVER. STRATUS...WHICH ORIGINATED OVER A MORE MOIST SOURCE REGION
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...BELIEVE THE
NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE WITH DECREASING CLOUD
TREND BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 925MB LEVEL...AND WITH AMPLE
MIXING...SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS COMING DOWN FOR GUSTS TODAY. DECENT
COLD PUSH ALSO NOTED IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -4C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM MANITOBA/MN. WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM MT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME TEENS IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL WI.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NOT A LOT OF FORCING BEING DEPICTED WITH THIS WAVE AS FAR
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/PV-ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A VERY DRY NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH OUTFLOW FROM HIGH CENTERED
NEAR HUDSONS BAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND ALSO MOVED THEM SOUTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR WHERE BETTER//ALBEIT WEAK//FORCING IS BEING DEPICTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE IF ANYTHING DID PRECIPITATE...IT WOULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
MAINLY RAIN FROM LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
01.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF
TROUGHING VERSUS RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD A BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW.
MODELS SHOW TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS POPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUD TREND EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS DROP ANOTHER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE AREA. DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP
LOWER LAYER DRY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MAKE PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
AS STATED ABOVE...TOOK A BLEND APPROACH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITION FOR US.
OTHERWISE...APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S//PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY//
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1130 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST WATERVAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOSTLY IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE. HOWEVER...JUST NORTH OF THE
MID CLOUDS LIES A BROADER EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH SFC OBS
MOSTLY SUB 2 KFT. LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW
SATURATION/CLOUDS COULD WORK ACROSS KRST AND KLSE AFTER 12Z THU. THE
NAM12 PUTS THE BREAKS ON THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE LOW SATURATION
HOWEVER...KEEPING IT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS MIXING AND DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR HALT ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS. THE 01.00Z GFS40 FAVORS THE RAP13.
CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO
KRST/KLSE. WILL TREND CIGS DOWNWARD FOR NOW. SATELLITE
IMAGERY/OBS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATES MADE AS NEEDED.
MODEL TRENDS DO FAVOR A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING
THU...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME CIGS COULD
LINGER LONGER AT KLSE.
THERE WAS SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SAGGING PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROBABLY HELPED IN KEEPING DOWN MUCH OF THE GUST POTENTIAL. BETTER
GRADIENT BY THU AFTERNOON THOUGH...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 20
KT GUSTS AT KRST. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
214 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH
NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES
AND LIKELY RFD BY LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY AT
CONSTANT HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2200 AND 3500 FT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
MORNING LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS/AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST
PROJECTIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A BLANKET
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. GRADUAL ASCENT WITHIN THIS AREA HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT ECHOES. WITH THIS PASSING OVER THE LOWER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE
PROCESSES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES.
OUTSIDE OF THAT SMALL CHANCE...THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK
TO POSSIBLY RE-EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT BE MORE FOCUSED TOWARD
NORTHWEST IN DUE TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CIGS
REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 1700 FT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...AM MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH
NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES
AND LIKELY RFD BY LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY AT
CONSTANT HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2200 AND 3500 FT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
MORNING LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS/AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST
PROJECTIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A BLANKET
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. GRADUAL ASCENT WITHIN THIS AREA HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT ECHOES. WITH THIS PASSING OVER THE LOWER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE
PROCESSES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES.
OUTSIDE OF THAT SMALL CHANCE...THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK
TO POSSIBLY RE-EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT BE MORE FOCUSED TOWARD
NORTHWEST IN DUE TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CIGS
REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 1700 FT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...AM MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KJLN AND ANOTHER NEAR KSPS.
DISCONTINUOUS FRONTS CONNECTED THE LOWS. WEAK INVERTED TROFS
EXTENDED FROM THE KJLN LOW INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO WESTERN
IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 20S AND 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST. RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA WITH
SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND RAP TRENDS...THE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LLJ AND THETA E
GRADIENT SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA. IT APPEARS THAT A LONE SHRA RAN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER WITH HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE TIME...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT
THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FILTERED SUN TO BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO OR JUST A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE WARMER START.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA WITH 850-700MB CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING BUT THE 1000-850MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE THETA E GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE IS WEAK AND VERY DIFFUSE AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS
EITHER NOT THERE OR VERY WEAK. SPRINKLES LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE
OPTED TO GO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 08
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEFORE WARMING TREND LATE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
BY NEXT WEEKEND IN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
COUPLE OF BOUTS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH S/W CWA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON... AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WBZ HEIGHTS 3500-4500 FT AGL SUPPORTS ALL LIQUID
PTYPE AT SFC DESPITE WHAT MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALGORITHMS
DEPICT. THE SECOND BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TUE WITH NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION WING. AMOUNTS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY TRACE TO AROUND 0.1 INCH.
MAINLY DRY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT.
PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND OR POSSIBLY JUST BEYOND... WITH FAVORABLE
HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE
PUMPING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH. TEMPS ABOVE TO POSSIBLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FRI THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. 05
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/04. SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN
AT KBRL PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 08
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF WILL PERSIST THROUGH ENTIRE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
ONLY CONCERN FOR KVTN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z.
UPSTREAM STRATUS IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR PHP. THE LATEST RAP MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12
INDICATE POTENTIAL. HAVE INTRODUCED A SCT009 CLOUD HEIGHT FROM
10Z-18Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER
18Z...FEW TO SCT080 WITH SCT TO BKN250. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AT OR
BELOW 6KT. HAVE ADDED SOME MIST FOG AND SOME BR TO TAFS WITH
DEVELOPING SCENARIO OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF AND KVTN WILL PERSIST THROUGH ENTIRE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER 18Z...FEW
TO SCT080 WITH SCT TO BKN250. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AT OR BELOW
6KT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WITH THE LIGHT WEST WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE
WENT FAIRLY COLD /UPPER 20S/ IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE BEST SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...IN AN AREA OF FAVORED LIFT SEEN FROM
MODEL GENERATED Q-VECTOR FIELDS. WHILE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE
EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...THE GFS AND EC DO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF
AS INCREASING JET ENERGY ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO WAFFLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES...BUT
WITH THE 12Z RUN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EC MODELING
CAMP WHICH FAVORS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
THIS PATTERN PLACES THE FAVORED LFQ OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOW THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF MEASURABLE QPF...SAVE FOR OUR FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES. SO WILL MAKE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEAVING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...WHERE PREVIOUSLY
INTRODUCED. OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIND
HEADLINES...BUT INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT IS SHOWN TO BE TRANSFERRED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE /PER BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS/ AS MIXING COMMENCES
ABOVE 750MB...A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNT OF EVENTUAL MIXING IS FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL ONLY TREND
WINDS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS WITHIN A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
IN ADVANCE OF WEAK WAVES/FRONTAL CONVERGENT PERIODS...ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL PLEASANT DAYS MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
60S...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND
POSSIBLY A 70 DEGREE READING OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...PRETTY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE EXPECTED UPPER PATTERN AS GIVEN BY THE 02.12Z
MODEL RUN IS NOT ALL THAT PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO UNFORTUNATELY WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. THE NARROW BAND OF STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE KGRI TERMINAL WITH
HIGH CLOUDS BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE STRATUS REDEVELOPS
AND MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ARE ALSO
NOTED...WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. THIS SATURATION HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000FT AGL PERSIST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DPVA AND MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS PRESENTING LITTLE IF ANY
OMEGA TO OUR AREA ONCE IT NEARS THE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD
DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. ALSO...THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BEING
USHERED INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE ALSO DISSIPATES. GIVEN AL THIS...A
CLEARING TREND SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT STRATUS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA 06Z ONWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND THE INFLUX OF A COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFILTRATES THE
REGION...WILL PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
~30-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. MET/NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND OPTED TO PLAY CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...WHICH PRESENTS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-20S TO
THE MID-30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS ALLOWING FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SATURDAY TEMPERATURE-RISES ON THE ORDER OF
25-30 DEGREES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH PRESENTS SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST DAYS WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES IT SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA...AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS IOWA AND
NEBRASKA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. WE CAME VERY CLOSE TO
PULLING THE SPRINKLES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE.
SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE IN THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SFC WIND WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF MORE SPRINKLES. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB MAY FALL TO
AROUND 0C ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BE A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000PM UPDATE...
APPEARS PREV FCST THINKING STILL HOLDS TRUE. CONCERNS STILL EXIST
FOR SOME PATCHY -FRDZ OVERNIGHT IN N MTNS AND WILL KEEP SOME
WORDING IN WX GRIDS.
730PM UPDATE...
SOLID DECK OF 4 TO 5 THSD FOOT CLDS INVADING FROM NW...AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV THIS EVE. USED LATEST RUC RH FIELDS
ARND 1KM AGL AS A BASE FOR SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. TRICK IS SW EXTENT
OF THIS CLD SHIELD. THINK MUCH OF TRI STATE AREA WILL STAY VOID OF
THIS WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WILL ORIENT A NW TO SE AXIS
FROM UNI TO CRW TO N OF BKW...AND POINTS N...TO PAINT IN MOST
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER TONIGHT. NEUTRAL TMP ADVECTION NOTED AT H85
TONIGHT ALONG THIS AXIS SO FEEL GOOD ABOUT GOING OVC ACROSS N WV.
SOME LIFT BENEATH H8 ON UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS N MTNS MAY SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW -SHSN. HOWEVER...WITH STOUT SUBSIDENCE ABV -10C...AM
CONCERNED FOR SOME PATCHY -FR DZ. WILL CONT MENTION IN WX GRIDS
ATTM.
PEAKED OUT INTO TOMORROW TO PUSH BACK POPS ACROSS NE KY/S WV UNTIL
LATE AFTN BASED ON LATEST MDL RUNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER 500MB LOW PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. GOOD FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. DESPITE THIS...WILL
RAMP UP POPS AGAIN TO LOW/MID CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY WEBSTER COUNTY
AND POINTS NORTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND TRAPPED
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DO HAVE A CONCERN HOWEVER WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST IN THOSE AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL DRY AT
-10C WITH GOOD SATURATION ONLY EXTENDING TO ABOUT -7C TO -8C AND
SFC TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING. TOUGH CALL ON THIS REGARDING PRECIP
TYPE HOWEVER AS OFTENTIMES IT SEEMS SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA WOULD
INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE YET SNOW IS STILL THE RESULT. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE TWO TO FIVE HUNDREDTHS ROUGHLY. WILL LEAVE ANY
ICE ACCUM OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK WITH SUBSEQUENT DATA.
PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. HEIGHTS INITIALLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES AWAY FROM AREA BUT ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY ESSENTIALLY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NW
DURING THE MORNING TO ZONAL BY END OF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD FROM SFC LOW OVER WEST/CENTRAL TENN TO AROUND THE
NC/VA BORDER BY LATE AFT SATURDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
NOTED ON 300K-305K SFCS WELL ABOVE AGL AND THE SOUNDING IS VERY
WEAKLY CONVECTIVE. BUT AS PREV FCST NOTED...MUCH OF THE FORCING IS
FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE AND FLOW AT H85 AND H7 ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL
TO WARM FRONT...SO NOT REALLY AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. ELECTED TO
SLOW DOWN POPS JUST A TAD BUT PREV FCST STILL HAD A GENERAL GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIP MOVING INTO THE SW ZONES BY END OF PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG
IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
LIGHT GIVEN VERY ACUTE ANGLE ON PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 295 AND
300 K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT GIVEN THERMAL
FIELDS. EVEN WHERE NEAR 0C AT H85...THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO GET
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS LOWLANDS. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SAT NT BUT HAVE LOW
CHANCE THERE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM.
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUN BUT UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND. THIS FEATURE EXITS FIRST THING MON
MORNING...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE FOR A NICE START TO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
WITH PRECIPITATION HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT...LOWS IN THE 20S TO
AROUND FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S WHERE THE HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
PACK IS...THE SLOW MELT CONTINUES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND CREEK ISSUES WHERE STORM DEBRIS CREATES
BLOCKAGES. IT LOOKS LIKE SWE VALUES IN THE SNOW PACK ARE DOWN TO
THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ADJMET ON TEMPERATURES EARLY ON AND THEN
BIAS CORRECTED CONSALL - OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES INVOLVED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS PERIOD.
THIS WOULD HAVE A STORM SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY
GRAZING THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. A WARM FRONT WOULD THEN PUSH
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
SHIELD OF STRATUS CLOUDS...VFR CEILINGS LOWLANDS AND MVFR CIGS
MOUNTAINS...WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z NORTH OF A CMH-CRW-BKW LINE.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR.
AFTER 12Z...STRATUS ERODES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BECOMING
VFR BY 18Z ALL LOCATIONS. MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
18Z AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHWEST AFTER 21Z...BUT STILL VFR.
AFTER 00Z...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SOUTH...AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS PRECIP SHOULD EXIT MOST AREAS
AROUND 06Z. SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. IN ANY
CASE...VFR WILL PREVAIL...POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWER.
A WEAK SYS WILL PASS MAINLY TO S THRU TN VALLEY LATE SAT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS
S WV/SW VA TOWARD THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG HEIGHTS AND PRECIP CONDITIONS
AT EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 11/03/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ATY 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS/
ROTTEN STRATUS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRATUS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT IN THE NORTH...AND MAY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
TEMPORARILY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AT THE KHON
TERMINAL...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE DURING THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW...THEN TAKE ON A NORTHEAST FLAVOR
SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1049 PM PDT Fri Nov 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A drying and warming trend will slowly return to much of the
Columbia Basin courtesy of a strengthening ridge of high pressure.
Weak systems brushing the ridge will bring some light rain at
times to the Cascades and mountains near the Canadian border.
Much cooler and unsettled weather will likely arrive by the end of
the week. Temperatures will likely be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: forecast update sent to increase PoPs and coverage from
the west through the rest of the night. Regional radar trends show
a modest band of precipitation from northwest Washington to north-
central Oregon. Some of the heavier precipitation has been found
west of Yakima, at least in terms of the reflectivity signal.
Latest HRRR runs and radar extrapolation brings this precipitation
into the western CWA between 03-06Z (8 PM to 11 PM) and eastward
through the remainder of the night.
The quandary: how well will it hold together as it moves off the
higher terrain? I expect it will weaken some, limiting how much
actually is capable of being measured/reaching the ground. However
the radar returns warrant at least adding scattered to isolated
showers across the Basin this evening, expanding through Spokane
area and Palouse late tonight into the overnight in isolated
fashion.
I added some fog near the Cascades and the Basin Saturday morning,
where some cloud breaks are possible late in the overnight. With
incoming mid and high clouds determining coverage and intensity
and duration of any fog will be difficult. As such I left it as
only patchy fog. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper wave moves across the region, with a threat
of isolated showers in the vcnty of TAF sites, with the threat
moving primarily to the eastern TAFs during the day Saturday.
Tonight a thickening and lowering of clouds is expected. VFR and
occasional MVFR conditions are expected. Toward morning, the light
east to southeast winds will bring a threat of some IFR stratus
near KGEG and again near KMWH and KEAT, along with some patchy
fog. Confidence remains low, due to the passing mid and high
clouds that may inhibit such development. Some drier air coming in
above the surface near sunrise near KEAT/KMWH will allow a better
threat of said IFR stratus to develop. Conditions improve through
the late morning and afternoon, with more mid and high clouds
streaming in ahead of the next weak wave. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 55 44 56 45 59 / 20 20 20 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 41 54 43 56 44 58 / 20 30 30 20 10 10
Pullman 44 58 45 57 46 62 / 20 20 10 20 10 0
Lewiston 44 60 47 61 48 64 / 20 10 10 20 0 0
Colville 44 54 43 57 43 61 / 30 40 40 40 20 20
Sandpoint 42 52 44 54 41 58 / 20 50 60 50 20 20
Kellogg 38 47 42 50 43 55 / 20 30 30 30 10 20
Moses Lake 42 58 45 61 45 60 / 50 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 44 55 48 61 46 59 / 50 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 45 55 44 59 43 59 / 50 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.UPDATE...
SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE
MADE SOME UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS...TEMPS
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW FORECAST BUT WITH FULL SUN THEY SHOULD
CATCH UP NICELY SO OVERALL NO CHANGES WORTH ISSUING NEW PRODUCTS
OVER. NEW HRRR AND THE 00Z FFCWRF KEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND PRETTY ANEMIC AT THAT...SO
CURRENT POPS HANDLE THAT WELL AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE IF
NECESSARY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
ERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES...THE FIRST
BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...WILL MOVE SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
SUNDAY WITH WEAK TO MDT WAA ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH NRN GA AND
THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT ENOUGH COMBINED LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THEN SCT LIGHT SHRA. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AND WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. 00Z MODELS...ESP 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...AND EVEN SFC BASED
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1000 J/KG AROUND 18-21Z. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE RETURN...HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN NAM AND
LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA IN FCST FOR
TONIGHT. DID ADD TSRA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS ATTM AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT....LACK OF STRONG SFC FORCING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL NOT BE AT FAVORABLE
LEVELS. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF CWA BY
LATE SUN NIGHT...SO HAVE PUSHED OUT POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
FRONT. USED BIAS-CORRECTED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND
MAV/MET BLEND WITH HIGHER WEIGHT TOWARD MAV FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT WAVE SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE TRACK WILL KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS...WITH
GOOD CLOUD COVER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD SHOT TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEEKS END.
ATWELL
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY. AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY SWITCH TO SE
AROUND 14-17Z THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO SW 4-8KTS. CU AROUND
4000FT SHOULD STAY SCT ALL DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 14Z AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE STATE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON DURATION OF SE WINDS THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 53 73 48 / 5 10 20 20
ATLANTA 76 58 72 49 / 0 20 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 62 41 / 10 20 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 76 54 68 43 / 5 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 82 59 79 52 / 0 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 73 55 69 47 / 5 20 20 20
MACON 80 53 80 51 / 0 10 30 20
ROME 77 52 67 41 / 5 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 73 44 / 0 10 20 20
VIDALIA 78 57 81 55 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* LOW PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES FOR SAME TIME RANGE.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINS TREND OF HOLDING 2500-3000 FT CIGS ACROSS
CHI AREA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH INDICATION OF
SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK RADAR RETURNS
DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SPRINKLES...THOUGH REFLECTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OVER PAST 2 HOURS
AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR TO WEAKEN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON LOWERING PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN WI. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES AND WILL
THROUGH TODAY...MEANING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A LITTLE LAKE EMPHASIS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW KNOT INCREASE...BUT ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL PREVAIL. THE FLOW OFF THE WARM LAKE CONTINUES TO OFFER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN OVER ORD AND DPA
FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGOLAND SITES OF MDW AND GYY...THE BROKEN CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE TEMPORARY...WITH MORNING MODEL TRAJECTORIES
BEING MORE FROM THE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THE
HEART OF THE LAKE. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ARE PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
CONVONECTION OVER CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH A THICK MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND GRADUAL ASCENT
WITHIN THAT LAYER...ATOP A LOWER STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER...THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS LIGHTEN...BUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AGAIN
WILL POTENTIALLY STEER BACK IN MORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPEICALLY FOR GYY AIRPORT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-3500 FT CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS MID/LATE AFTN.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT PROBABLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN WI. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES AND WILL
THROUGH TODAY...MEANING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A LITTLE LAKE EMPHASIS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW KNOT INCREASE...BUT ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL PREVAIL. THE FLOW OFF THE WARM LAKE CONTINUES TO OFFER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN OVER ORD AND DPA
FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGOLAND SITES OF MDW AND GYY...THE BROKEN CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE TEMPORARY...WITH MORNING MODEL TRAJECTORIES
BEING MORE FROM THE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THE
HEART OF THE LAKE. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ARE PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
CONVONECTION OVER CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH A THICK MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND GRADUAL ASCENT
WITHIN THAT LAYER...ATOP A LOWER STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER...THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS LIGHTEN...BUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AGAIN
WILL POTENTIALLY STEER BACK IN MORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPEICALLY FOR GYY AIRPORT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-3500 FT CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
BROKEN CIGS REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
801 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS PROBABLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN WI. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES AND WILL
THROUGH TODAY...MEANING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A LITTLE LAKE EMPHASIS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW KNOT INCREASE...BUT ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL PREVAIL. THE FLOW OFF THE WARM LAKE CONTINUES TO OFFER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN OVER ORD AND DPA
FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGOLAND SITES OF MDW AND GYY...THE BROKEN CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE TEMPORARY...WITH MORNING MODEL TRAJECTORIES
BEING MORE FROM THE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THE
HEART OF THE LAKE. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ARE PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
CONVONECTION OVER CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH A THICK MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND GRADUAL ASCENT
WITHIN THAT LAYER...ATOP A LOWER STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER...THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS LIGHTEN...BUT THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AGAIN
WILL POTENTIALLY STEER BACK IN MORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPEICALLY FOR GYY AIRPORT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-3500 FT CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING TIME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
BROKEN CIGS REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
656 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.UPDATE...
THE WAA THAT PRODUCED THE EARLIER SPRINKLES WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE
OF SHRA IN THE FAR SOUTH HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
ILLINOIS. RADAR IS SHOWING PROBABLE VIRGA/MID CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH PER RAP TRENDS WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND
FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS.
THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL BE OFFSET BY THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
IDEA THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
LATE TONIGHT THE 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOWERING OF THE
850-700MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE THETA E
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY DIFFUSE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO
THE CWFA IT WOULD BE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF DECAYING SPRINKLES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/04. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TAKING ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH IT. AN
APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE AFT 06Z/04 MIGHT RESULT IN SOME
SPRINKLES AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AT KCID. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KJLN AND ANOTHER NEAR KSPS.
DISCONTINUOUS FRONTS CONNECTED THE LOWS. WEAK INVERTED TROFS
EXTENDED FROM THE KJLN LOW INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO WESTERN
IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 20S AND 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST. RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA WITH
SPRINKLES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND RAP TRENDS...THE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE AS THE LLJ AND THETA E
GRADIENT SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA. IT APPEARS THAT A LONE SHRA RAN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER WITH HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE TIME...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT
THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FILTERED SUN TO BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO OR JUST A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE WARMER START.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA WITH 850-700MB CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING BUT THE 1000-850MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE THETA E GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE IS WEAK AND VERY DIFFUSE AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS
EITHER NOT THERE OR VERY WEAK. SPRINKLES LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE
OPTED TO GO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 08
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEFORE WARMING TREND LATE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
BY NEXT WEEKEND IN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
COUPLE OF BOUTS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH S/W CWA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON... AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WBZ HEIGHTS 3500-4500 FT AGL SUPPORTS ALL LIQUID
PTYPE AT SFC DESPITE WHAT MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALGORITHMS
DEPICT. THE SECOND BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TUE WITH NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION WING. AMOUNTS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY TRACE TO AROUND 0.1 INCH.
MAINLY DRY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT.
PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND OR POSSIBLY JUST BEYOND... WITH FAVORABLE
HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE
PUMPING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH. TEMPS ABOVE TO POSSIBLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FRI THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. 05
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1141 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
UPDATED TO GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. KAPX
AND KDTX MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY...WHICH IS
KEEPING THE BULK OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE ISSUE THOUGH IS THAT MOISTURE HAS
STREAMED SOUTH OFF OF SUPERIOR AND THE VERY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND HURON. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION AND NOT ERODING MUCH. IN FACT THERE HAS BEEN A DIURNAL
EXPANSION ON THE EDGES. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD COVER THINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY NOSE INTO THE
LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS.
UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION/VIRGA OVER WISCONSIN.
VERY FEW IF ANY OB SITES ARE REPORTING PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL
THOUGH. MADISON DID REPORT A FEW FLURRIES AN HOUR AGO. FEEL THAT
THE MID LEVELS ARE A BIT TOO DRY TO BRING PRECIP IN SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z NSSL WRF. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
WILL BE VIRGA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN DRY WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND WE ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS A
LITTLE. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS OVER NRN LWR AS
WELL AS NW OF THE CWA ACROSS THE LAKE AND WISCONSIN WITH MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH MORE AS THE LOWER ATM
IS QUITE DRY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE PREVALENT. GIVEN THAT FLOW WILL BE
OFF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WE ADDED SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
TO THE FAR NW THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NNE AND THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL END.
FAIR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER.
THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK
VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL... WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW STRUGGLING TO
EVEN SQUEEZE OUT QPF.
THE MAIN ATTENTION GRABBER IS THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES... WITH A
BUILDING UPR RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES. H8 TEMPS OF 7 TO
10C ARE PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY... WITH EVEN
WARMER AIR EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED OVER WRN AND NRN LWR MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED BY NOON
LEAVING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 12K FT WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
CANCELED THE SCA EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND
LOWER WAVES. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
NO ISSUES THIS MORNING. DRY WX EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
905 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION....../ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT/
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY MOST PLACES. A
LITTLE MORE SUN MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST PLACES
SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER IN
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE MVFR RANGE CEILINGS ALSO MORE
LIKELY. THIS INCLUDES KHON TAF LOCATION WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE LOWEST OF CLOUDS START TO BREAK UP A
BIT AND SHIFT EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT OF
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN IF THEY DO EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS TO DROP BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MN/LOCATIONS
NORTHEAST OF KBKX-KSPW LINE AFTER 04/00Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KFSD AND WILL KEEP TAF VFR FOR NOW.
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS 14Z-19Z TIME FRAME TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
640 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE MVFR RANGE CEILINGS ALSO MORE
LIKELY. THIS INCLUDES KHON TAF LOCATION WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE LOWEST OF CLOUDS START TO BREAK UP A
BIT AND SHIFT EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT OF
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN IF THEY DO EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS TO DROP BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MN/LOCATIONS
NORTHEAST OF KBKX-KSPW LINE AFTER 04/00Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KFSD AND WILL KEEP TAF VFR FOR NOW.
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS 14Z-19Z TIME FRAME TODAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER TO START THE NEW WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE AROUND TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROUGH PHASING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
INTERESTING MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR H7 ON THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING.
LARGE PICTURE NOT REALLY MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THE
IMPULSE...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUD ENHANCEMENT LATER TODAY AND VIRGA OR
EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN EASTERN AREAS
(HINTED AT BY BOTH 14Z HRRR AND 12Z U OF AZ WRF-NAM).
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MIGHT EVEN COME CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN A FEW
SPOTS TUESDAY OR SO.
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP NICELY.
REASONABLE TRENDS ON 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WITH 12Z GFS NOT QUITE AS
DEEP. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
IMPACT OVER NEXT WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FIRST HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN STORY.
&&
.AVIATION...KTUS VICINITY EWD FEW-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL TODAY
THEN SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KTUS SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU 04/15Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING OR 04/15Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY. STRONG
WARMING EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREAFTER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
UPDATE...
SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE
MADE SOME UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS...TEMPS
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW FORECAST BUT WITH FULL SUN THEY SHOULD
CATCH UP NICELY SO OVERALL NO CHANGES WORTH ISSUING NEW PRODUCTS
OVER. NEW HRRR AND THE 00Z FFCWRF KEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND PRETTY ANEMIC AT THAT...SO
CURRENT POPS HANDLE THAT WELL AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE IF
NECESSARY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
ERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES...THE FIRST
BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...WILL MOVE SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
SUNDAY WITH WEAK TO MDT WAA ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH NRN GA AND
THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT ENOUGH COMBINED LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THEN SCT LIGHT SHRA. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AND WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. 00Z MODELS...ESP 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...AND EVEN SFC BASED
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1000 J/KG AROUND 18-21Z. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE RETURN...HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN NAM AND
LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA IN FCST FOR
TONIGHT. DID ADD TSRA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS ATTM AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT....LACK OF STRONG SFC FORCING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL NOT BE AT FAVORABLE
LEVELS. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF CWA BY
LATE SUN NIGHT...SO HAVE PUSHED OUT POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
FRONT. USED BIAS-CORRECTED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND
MAV/MET BLEND WITH HIGHER WEIGHT TOWARD MAV FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT WAVE SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE TRACK WILL KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS...WITH
GOOD CLOUD COVER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD SHOT TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEEKS END.
ATWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD EVERYWHERE BUT MCN
WHERE MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 12Z. SW
WINDS TODAY...5-10KT AT ATL AND BELOW 5KT ELSEWHERE...WILL PICK
UP ON SUNDAY TO CLOSER TO 10KT AND TURN MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A
FRONT. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA AT MOST SITES THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BUT
PROB30 WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MCN AND CSG THEREAFTER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 53 73 48 / 0 10 20 20
ATLANTA 76 58 72 49 / 0 20 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 62 41 / 0 20 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 76 54 68 43 / 0 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 82 59 79 52 / 0 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 73 55 69 47 / 0 20 20 20
MACON 80 53 80 51 / 0 10 30 20
ROME 77 52 67 41 / 0 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 73 44 / 0 10 20 20
VIDALIA 78 57 81 55 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
249 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT...POSSIBLY SCATTERING FOR A TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH
2130-22Z.
* LAKE-INDUCED MVFR STRATOCU LIKELY REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT KMDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL AT MIDDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS WI...MAINTAINING BROKEN
MID-LEVEL DECK ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS HAD
SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BENEATH THE MID-CLOUDS...MVFR STRATOCU IN THE
2500-3000 FT RANGE HAS PUSHED INLAND OFF OF THE LAKE...THOUGH
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS ERODING DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WIND FIELD WEAKENS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS EVENING...INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE AND REINFORCING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PUSH OF MVFR STRATOCU. GYY AND MDW WOULD APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT CEILINGS IN THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ORD/DPA
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. EXPECT BASES TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BEYOND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THESE LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDS...THOUGH TIMING/LOCATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN POINT FORECASTS ATTM.
WINDS...10 KTS OR LESS SHOULD BACK FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY FLOP TO 340-350 LATE
THIS EVENING AT ORD/DPA BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
751 AM CDT
MINOR QUICK UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTIAC IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO FOWLER IN INDIANA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND AREA OF WAA. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT WITH THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND BETTER
FORCING/WAA EXITING THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPE UP TO
250J/KG...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIP IN OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING...WITH
AT MOST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IF THIS WERE TO EVEN OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES HAVE MOVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED UNTIL WE
APPROACH MID NEXT WEEK.
BY THAT TIME A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS TO HAVE GOTTEN UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG
JET MAX...THE NOSE OF WHICH WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND...DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA OVER THE UPPER AND MS VALLEY...CARVING OUT A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM...THIS ALLOWS A STRONG BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM B.C. SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMALS FOR MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SPREADS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND RAISES
TEMPERATURES TO 8...POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK. NOTE HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THIS INCREASE AS COMPARED TO
NORMALS IS TO TO THE FACT THAT NORMALS TEMPERATURES FALL AT ABOUT
1 DEGREE F EVERY TWO DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHORTER DAYS.
SO...BESIDES TEMPERATURES RISING THE NORMALS WILL BE FALLING.
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...THOUGH STILL ONLY A SMALL ONE...TO BE DURING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MI TONIGHT.
IN THE SHORT...TERM WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...AS ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT...FORCING HAD
SHIFTED SOUTH TO NORTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN KS AND NE TO IA AND MO. THIS
FORCING IS ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE /PER 03.00Z RAOBS 850
HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C AND +17C AT TOP AND SGF RESPECTIVELY...
WITH MPX AT 0C AND GRB -6C/ THAT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS IA AND IL
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS FORCING HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF U.S. 136. THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY THOUGH WEAKEN AS
IT DOES. WITH THE MAIN FORCING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ONLY
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI HAS BECOME RATER LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER THE SHORT
FETCH AND SUPPRESSED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INCREASED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WILL ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS THOUGH CLOUD DEPTHS BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE WATER TONIGHT SUGGEST
THEY WOULD BE ONLY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE OR AT THE MOST A
FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TO THE MID MO
VALLEY. MODELS THEN TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL STAY TO
THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS COMES ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS FROM MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST FORCING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER S TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT...POSSIBLY SCATTERING FOR A TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* LAKE-INDUCED MVFR STRATOCU LIKELY REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT KMDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL AT MIDDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS WI...MAINTAINING BROKEN
MID-LEVEL DECK ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS HAD
SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BENEATH THE MID-CLOUDS...MVFR STRATOCU IN THE
2500-3000 FT RANGE HAS PUSHED INLAND OFF OF THE LAKE...THOUGH
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS ERODING DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WIND FIELD WEAKENS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS EVENING...INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE AND REINFORCING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PUSH OF MVFR STRATOCU. GYY AND MDW WOULD APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT CEILINGS IN THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ORD/DPA
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. EXPECT BASES TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BEYOND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THESE LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDS...THOUGH TIMING/LOCATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN POINT FORECASTS ATTM.
WINDS...10 KTS OR LESS SHOULD BACK FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY FLOP TO 340-350 LATE
THIS EVENING AT ORD/DPA BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC OF -RA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE...NOW GOING ON ALMOST A
WEEK STRAIGHT FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC TO NORTHERN IL WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE BY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT
TIME...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.
WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
IL AND IN EVEN AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRATION...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF WAVE HEIGHTS...SO NO EXTENSION
IN THE HEADLINE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO POWERFUL OF A FRONT AS A STRONG LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO SLOW AND
LIKELY WEAKEN.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. CID HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHEETS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012/
UPDATE...
THE WAA THAT PRODUCED THE EARLIER SPRINKLES WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE
OF SHRA IN THE FAR SOUTH HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
ILLINOIS. RADAR IS SHOWING PROBABLE VIRGA/MID CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH PER RAP TRENDS WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND
FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS.
THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL BE OFFSET BY THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
IDEA THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
LATE TONIGHT THE 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOWERING OF THE
850-700MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE THETA E
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY DIFFUSE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO
THE CWFA IT WOULD BE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF DECAYING SPRINKLES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH NO MORE THAN A SCATTERED
LAYER OF STRATUS BLO 3000 FEET BY 02Z-03Z. THEREAFTER...THICKENING
MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 10-15KFT WILL PROGRESS OVER THE AREA WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GENERAL AREA ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CEILINGS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING BLO 10KFT ATTM.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A STABLE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM GRASP OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING A RIBBON OF
VORTICITY ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE ND/MN ANOMALY...STRINGING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING A WING OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENSIS SLIDING OVER THE CWA.
THIS FORCING IS NOW DRIVING THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS/LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SATURATED/WEAK LAPSE RATE LAYER BETWEEN 15-20 KFT AGL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FORCING...NECESSITATING AN INCREASED MENTION
OF CLOUDS. A DEEP DRY SLAB WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN 4-15 KFT
AGL...WITH NO REAL SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LACK OF SFC HYDROMETEORS BEING REPORTED IN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY...WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE ABLE TO HANG ON FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE BULK OF THE THUMB. OTHERWISE...DO NOT
WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH RAISING MINIMUMS...GIVEN THE COLD
SURFACE RIDGE AND NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUD CONCERNS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SINKING MOTION FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS SHALLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINTAINING COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE THE
NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON IS LAKE EFFECT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE THUMB REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION LEVEL AROUND 3-4K FEET WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB.
THE SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRY AIR AND RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
DELTA T VALUES LEND ITSELF TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THIS AREA BEING THE EXPECTED RESULT OF THE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...WITH NO WAY TO TAP INTO THE
MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE NOREASTER TRACKING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SEVERELY MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AS THE SYSTEM FAILS TO PULL IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THE RIDGING WILL ALSO PULL IN
SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE WEST AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
EVENTUALLY AROUND +10 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT SATURDAYS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR BELOW BY LATE
EVENING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL BELOW 5
FEET OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS DOWN OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ443...UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
SANILAC...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A STABLE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM GRASP OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING A RIBBON OF
VORTICITY ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE ND/MN ANOMALY...STRINGING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING A WING OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENSIS SLIDING OVER THE CWA.
THIS FORCING IS NOW DRIVING THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS/LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SATURATED/WEAK LAPSE RATE LAYER BETWEEN 15-20 KFT AGL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FORCING...NECESSITATING AN INCREASED MENTION
OF CLOUDS. A DEEP DRY SLAB WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN 4-15 KFT
AGL...WITH NO REAL SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LACK OF SFC HYDROMETEORS BEING REPORTED IN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY...WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE ABLE TO HANG ON FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE BULK OF THE THUMB. OTHERWISE...DO NOT
WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH RAISING MINIMUMS...GIVEN THE COLD
SURFACE RIDGE AND NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUD CONCERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SINKING MOTION FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS SHALLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINTAINING COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE THE
NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON IS LAKE EFFECT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE THUMB REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION LEVEL AROUND 3-4K FEET WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB.
THE SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRY AIR AND RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
DELTA T VALUES LEND ITSELF TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THIS AREA BEING THE EXPECTED RESULT OF THE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...WITH NO WAY TO TAP INTO THE
MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE NOREASTER TRACKING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SEVERELY MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AS THE SYSTEM FAILS TO PULL IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THE RIDGING WILL ALSO PULL IN
SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE WEST AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
EVENTUALLY AROUND +10 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT SATURDAYS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR BELOW BY LATE
EVENING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL BELOW 5
FEET OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS DOWN OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 142 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR STRATUS HAS FILLED BACK IN THIS MORNING WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE 12Z DTX RAOB AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MORE
MOISTURE/SATURATION TO CONTEND WITH THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE
RESOLVED. GIVEN THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW...WILL TAKE A MORE
AGGRESSIVE APPROACH WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC CLOUD CANOPY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOME ENERGY SHEARING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AOA 12 KFT AGL FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
AT DTW...BEEN WATCHING SATURATION AT 2 KFT AGL OCCUR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION IF LOCAL
EFFECTS CAN KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT OF DTW DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
HOW AGGRESSIVE THE CLOUD EXPANSION HAS BEEN WILL BE INTRODUCING AN
MVFR CLOUD GROUP FOR STRETCH THIS AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES AND TIMING OF CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ443...UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
SANILAC...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
UPDATED TO GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. KAPX
AND KDTX MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY...WHICH IS
KEEPING THE BULK OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE ISSUE THOUGH IS THAT MOISTURE HAS
STREAMED SOUTH OFF OF SUPERIOR AND THE VERY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND HURON. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION AND NOT ERODING MUCH. IN FACT THERE HAS BEEN A DIURNAL
EXPANSION ON THE EDGES. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD COVER THINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY NOSE INTO THE
LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS.
UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION/VIRGA OVER WISCONSIN.
VERY FEW IF ANY OB SITES ARE REPORTING PRECIP AT GROUND LEVEL
THOUGH. MADISON DID REPORT A FEW FLURRIES AN HOUR AGO. FEEL THAT
THE MID LEVELS ARE A BIT TOO DRY TO BRING PRECIP IN SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z NSSL WRF. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
WILL BE VIRGA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN DRY WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND WE ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS A
LITTLE. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS OVER NRN LWR AS
WELL AS NW OF THE CWA ACROSS THE LAKE AND WISCONSIN WITH MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH MORE AS THE LOWER ATM
IS QUITE DRY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE PREVALENT. GIVEN THAT FLOW WILL BE
OFF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WE ADDED SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
TO THE FAR NW THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NNE AND THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL END.
FAIR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER.
THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK
VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL... WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW STRUGGLING TO
EVEN SQUEEZE OUT QPF.
THE MAIN ATTENTION GRABBER IS THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES... WITH A
BUILDING UPR RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES. H8 TEMPS OF 7 TO
10C ARE PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY... WITH EVEN
WARMER AIR EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
MVFR CIGS WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 KFT AGL RANGE
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
CANCELED THE SCA EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND
LOWER WAVES. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
NO ISSUES THIS MORNING. DRY WX EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY YIELD TO HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT THEN END SUNDAY AS MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AND MOIST AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. ON THE BACK OF THIS TROF...THERE WILL BE LIMITED
LIFT...WITH LAKE INFLUENCES AND UPSLOPING THE MAIN FACTORS TO CONSIDER.
SINCE COLD AIR IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...LAKE INDUCED CAPES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MODEST...GENERALLY 200 TO 300 J/KG. THE RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED AND/OR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. ROUGHLY SPEAKING A
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES SEEMS TO BE THE RAIN TO SNOW
CUT-OFF. THIS LIMITS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
ELSEWHERE MAINLY RAIN. CONSISTENT WITH SPOTTER REPORTS...MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING AN ACCUMULATION WERE ABOVE 1700 FEET...WITH ANY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RAP WARM THE 700-850MB
LAYER...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES BENEATH THIS LAYER -6C TO -8C.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO FALL AS A LIGHT SLEET OR DRIZZLE.
FORTUNATELY...THE SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE PROBLEM THIS POSES...IS THAT IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS FAR SHY OF ANY HEADLINES...BUT
IT WARRANT MONITORING OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR WILL HANG IN A BIT
LONGER TO THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS EITHER RAIN OR
SNOW.
IN GENERAL...FEEL MOS NUMBERS ARE TOO COLD FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKES NORTH OF
I-90 AND WEST OF I-81 LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
SAID...ANY LOCALIZED CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST.
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO MAKE A
MEANINGFUL PUSH INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS...A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF
SUN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THESE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT LONG.
HOWEVER...THE DRYING AIR SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS A DRY AIR MASS GAINS
CONTROL INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...COURTESY OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR LAKE RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN WEAK NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH OVERALL DRY AMBIENT AIR AND RELATIVELY LOW LAKE
DELTA T/S WOULD SUGGEST ONLY AN INCREASE IN LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ENSURING A FAIR...ALBEIT CHILLY DAYS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONAL
FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS APART FROM SOME DIURNAL
STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6C WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES LOOK A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NO
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A
DEEP NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM WILL EVOLVE IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. 12Z GFS
FASTER IN MOVING THE COASTAL STORM NORTHWARD THAN THE ECMWF. THE
ECWMF REMAINS FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED LEFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED MODEL
DIFFERENCES...STILL FEEL THAT WESTERN NEW YORK WILL HAVE A LIMITED
PRECIPITATION OR WIND THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COUNTRY COULD STILL HAVE SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCUMULATING
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS AND A WIND POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM STILL
BEARS WATCHING FOR THAT PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT...A BURGEONING PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW COMBINED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL PROMOTE QUICKLY BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS STARTED THE 18Z TAF CYCLE WITH MVFR CIGS JUST BELOW
3000 FEET...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
REMAINING MVFR FOR THE DURATION. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES.
TONIGHT...EXPECT A LOWERING OF CIGS WITH DIURNAL LOWERING OF THE
INVERSION...AND A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS. LOWEST CIGS WILL BE AT
JHW...WHERE A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL FINALLY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AS WELL...WITH MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ON LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS MAINTAINING SOME 5 FOOT WAVES ON ITS SOUTH SHORES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED.
AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...AND
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OUR WRITTEN OCTOBER CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE CLM PRODUCT ON OUR WEBPAGE UNDER LOCAL
CLIMATE. SOME HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE:
FOR BUFFALO WE HAD THE 2ND MOST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DAYS IN
OCTOBER`S RECORDED HISTORY (SINCE 1871) WITH 22 OF THE 31 DAYS
MEASURING PRECIPITATION. THE ALL-TIME RECORD WAS SET BACK IN 1890
WITH 25 DAYS. FOR A 6TH STRAIGHT MONTH WE HAD A MONTH FINISH WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH BUFFALO`S 52.2F SETTING THE MONTH
1.4F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR ROCHESTER WE HAD A TIE FOR 6TH GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH 18 DAYS. THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER IS 21 DAYS WHICH WAS SET BACK IN THE YEAR 1988. LIKE BUFFALO
ROCHESTER ALSO HAS HAD 6 STRAIGHT MONTHS FINISH WITH ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH. THE 52.8F DEGREES WAS 2.2F ABOVE THE NORM.
OVER AN 8 DAY PERIOD...OCTOBER 26TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 2ND...BUFFALO
HAS RECEIVED AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THESE 8
CONSECUTIVE DAYS TIES A RECORD FOR GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THE LAST
OCCURRENCE WAS IN JANUARY 1999.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPS NOW THAT THERE IS SOME SNOW COVER OUT THERE. FOG COULD ALSO
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. PREFER A MODEL BLEND TODAY.
TONIGHT...LAST PIECE OF VORTICITY APPEARS TO BE SPINNING JUST TO
THE SW OF KFAR RIGHT NOW WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. HAS YET TO REACH TO KFAR AND MOORHEAD HAS ONLY PICKED UP
A FEW SPITS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MUCH WILL REACH KFAR
AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TRYING
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST BUT WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING FLURRIES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOG. THERE HAS BEEN AN
AREA OF FOG THAT HAS NOT GONE AWAY TODAY UP ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN ND. WILL KEEP THIS AREA FOGGY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY EXPAND
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT MAY
BECOME BUT TEMP/DEW POINTS ARE CLOSE OVER MOST OF EASTERN ND NOW
AND WINDS STAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SUN-TUE...NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY
MORNING THEN EXPANDS TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
MODELS TODAY LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF
PCPN. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE FURTHEST EAST SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST
WEIGHT TO THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW. THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD SINK
SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. PCPN
TYPE FOR THIS ROUND STILL IS TRICKY. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOW AROUND THE KDVL REGION SO PCPN SHOULD BE
SNOW THERE. WILL KEEP THE MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR OTHER AREAS. SO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COME OUT TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE KDVL
REGION TO JUST A DUSTING FOR THE REST OF EASTERN ND. LATEST HPC
SNOWFALL GRAPHICS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL. SHOULD GET A
QUICK BREAK MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT PCPN SHOT COMES IN MON
AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO TUE. THIS TIME MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS
TO GET SOMETHING BUT MAINLY THE NORTH/NE FA. AGAIN PCPN TYPE A
TOUGH CALL BUT FOR MOST OF THE EVENT TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST LIQUID PCPN. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE TIMES MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...12Z MODELS ALL INDICATE THE
SAME LARGE SCALE PATTERN. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING...TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
THEN...EACH MODEL INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEST OF THE GFS. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES AND P-TYPE. ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE MORE ACCURATE IN THESE SITUATIONS...WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DAY 6/7
EVENT. SINCE EACH MODEL INDICATES A DIFFERENT P-TYPE...WILL GO WITH
RAIN/SNOW MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION...THE REGION IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST OF
IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
KDVL SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE VALLEY SITES WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK
DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 12Z SUNDAY. KTVF AND KBJI SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT (ALTHOUGH 18Z RAP INDICATES LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
GODON/TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1225 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.DISCUSSION....../ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT/
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY MOST PLACES. A
LITTLE MORE SUN MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST PLACES
SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER IN
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN OVC030 TO
OVC050 CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CEILINGS NEAR OVC040 WILL BECOME SCT-BKN070
BY 00Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW AFTER 03Z
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS FROM SC TO AC WILL BE PASSING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER HAVING HOPE
FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE LOWER DECKS MAY TEND TO BREAK
UP LATER IN THE DAY BUT HIGHER AC SEEN ON LATEST IMAGERY IS PINNED
BY MODELS TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREA. MEANWHILE...RUC INDICATED
SOME LIFT WITH THE CURRENT MID DECK WHICH SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FEW SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOING BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS
LACK OF LIFT DURING THE DAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THOSE SPRINKLES PAST
12Z/7 AM CDT RIGHT NOW. ALL THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
DAMPENING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD AGAIN BE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. NOT A BAD DAY THOUGH WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
PERHAPS LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING SKIES OVERALL WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE GFS DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE LIFT
FITS OUR EARLIER FORECAST OF THIS. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY
EXTEND INTO OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVEN AS
CLOUDS FROM DIGGING UPPER WAVE START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. NAM IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL GO FOR THE DIGGING NATURE OF SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE
GFS...EC...AND EVEN THE PLACID CANADIAN. THIS MEANS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP A VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF A LITTLE WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION.
ASSUMING MOST MODELS HAVE THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
PEGGED...EXPECT A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY
DECREASING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT UPPER RIDGING AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. NOT
REAL WARM AS RIDGING DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BRING THE WARM AIR INTO SD...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR
FORECAST OF 50S MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW STRING THE RIDGING TURNS OUT TO BE AHEAD OF MAJOR TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1128 AM PDT Sat Nov 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist westerly flow will result in periods of rain mainly in the
mountains and portions of Eastern Washington through the middle
of next week. The Columbia Basin will stay generally dry. Much
cooler and unsettled weather will likely arrive by the end of the
week. Temperatures will likely be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Precipitation chances have been increased for the
remainder of today across Northeast Washington and North Idaho.
None of the models including the HRRR are handling the band of
showers over Eastern Washington and North Idaho well this morning.
This area of precipitation has been associated with a pocket of
mid level instability in the atmosphere as noted by 700-500
theta-e lapse rates near 0 C/KM. As the day progresses models show
an increasingly stable environment but with an increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. Water vapor satellite shows a very moist zonal flow aimed
at Washington and North Idaho so wet conditions will continue into
the afternoon. Meanwhile downslope flow off the Cascades will
shadow out the Wenatchee and Omak areas with most of the rain
confined to near the Cascade crest. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A moist zonal flow will keep areas of -RA over Northeast
Washington and North Idaho through 18z Sunday. Meanwhile a very
moist boundary layer will result in stratus over most of the area.
All models are not handling the current situation well so overall
low confidence regarding CIGS over the next 24 hours. But in
general MVFR and IFR conditions will be common through the next 24
hours at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE with gradually lowering CIGS expected as
the boundary layer continues to moisten. Very low confidence for
KEAT/KMWH TAFS through tonight as a continued moist boundary layer
could allow fog or stratus to form or expand in coverage...especially
tonight. However with an abundance of mid level clouds reducing
radiational cooling potential tonight kept prevailing conditions
VFR. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 44 56 45 60 43 / 100 20 20 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 50 43 56 44 60 42 / 100 30 20 10 10 10
Pullman 57 45 57 46 61 44 / 50 10 20 10 10 10
Lewiston 60 47 61 48 66 48 / 10 0 20 0 10 0
Colville 51 43 57 42 60 40 / 70 30 40 20 10 10
Sandpoint 48 44 54 41 58 40 / 100 70 50 20 20 10
Kellogg 47 42 50 43 56 41 / 80 50 30 20 30 10
Moses Lake 55 45 61 45 62 42 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 48 61 46 61 43 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Omak 53 44 59 43 60 40 / 20 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
545 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WHAT TYPE THEY WILL BE AS
THEY REACH THE GROUND...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA PER SATELLITE AND 03.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. A LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST OUT OF THIS LOW AND HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS IOWA ON INTO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST AS WELL AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT COMING DOWN WITH THIS CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STRONG 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND QG FORCING DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 3-12Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS IN THE
LOW LEVELS WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FRONTOGENESIS OR ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO HELP DEEPEN THE LIFT AND SATURATION. CROSS SECTIONS/TIME
HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF DECENT MID LEVEL OMEGA COMING
THROUGH WITH THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 03.12Z GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATING BETWEEN
850-400MB CENTERED AROUND 6-9Z. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER
MAX TEMPERATURES BEING UP AROUND 3-4C PER 03.12Z NAM/GFS AND
03.18Z RAP SOUNDINGS THOUGH THEY COOL AS THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS
WITH ABOUT A 1KFT NEAR SURFACE LAYER THAT IS UP TO 1C. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN THOUGH
WITH THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND FREEZING THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW THAT MIXES IN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR AROUND
34-38 AND WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES...ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD JUST BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND WILL PROVIDE
FOR A DRY YET COOL SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE STAYING TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF IT
GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 03.12Z
NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THE FORCING/PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THAT ROUTE
THAN WITH THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COME IN ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN FROM
CANADA ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING
DEEP ENOUGH OF FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH IT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 03.12Z GFS/NAM THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL
RAIN...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MIX FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
KICKS IN ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE GOES EAST A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE 03.12Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS
BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER WEST. HAVE KEPT A
BLEND OF THE FORECASTS GOING...BUT IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT IT WILL
BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WITH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
THE GFS HAS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
545 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
MVFR CIGS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND RH FORECASTS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE
RAP13/NAM12. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS NORTHERN ILL BY 18Z SUN.
SATURATION INCREASES IN THE VERTICAL AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WITH SOUNDINGS FAVORING SUB 3 KFT CIGS AFTER 06Z AT
KRST...AND TOWARD 12Z FOR KLSE. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD PUSH CIG
HEIGHTS UP DURING THE DAY ON SUN. THAT SAID...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.
SATURATION IS DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE...AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS - OR CLOSE TO IT - LOOKS LIKELY FOR
MONDAY.
AS FOR PCPN...SOME QG CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND HINTS OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LATEST 88-D IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE
SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER SD/ND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM12
SLIDES LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA OVERNIGHT...AS DOES
THE LATEST HRRR. TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING ANY PCPN CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF
KLSE...BUT KRST COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. WILL ADD A
MENTION INTO THE TAF FORECAST...BUT DON/T EXPECT AN IMPACT TO VSBYS
OR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WHAT TYPE THEY WILL BE AS
THEY REACH THE GROUND...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA PER SATELLITE AND 03.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. A LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST OUT OF THIS LOW AND HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS IOWA ON INTO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST AS WELL AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT COMING DOWN WITH THIS CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STRONG 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND QG FORCING DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 3-12Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS IN THE
LOW LEVELS WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FRONTOGENESIS OR ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO HELP DEEPEN THE LIFT AND SATURATION. CROSS SECTIONS/TIME
HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF DECENT MID LEVEL OMEGA COMING
THROUGH WITH THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 03.12Z GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATING BETWEEN
850-400MB CENTERED AROUND 6-9Z. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER
MAX TEMPERATURES BEING UP AROUND 3-4C PER 03.12Z NAM/GFS AND
03.18Z RAP SOUNDINGS THOUGH THEY COOL AS THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS
WITH ABOUT A 1KFT NEAR SURFACE LAYER THAT IS UP TO 1C. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN THOUGH
WITH THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND FREEZING THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW THAT MIXES IN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR AROUND
34-38 AND WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES...ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD JUST BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND WILL PROVIDE
FOR A DRY YET COOL SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE STAYING TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF IT
GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 03.12Z
NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THE FORCING/PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THAT ROUTE
THAN WITH THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COME IN ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN FROM
CANADA ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING
DEEP ENOUGH OF FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH IT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 03.12Z GFS/NAM THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL
RAIN...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MIX FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
KICKS IN ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE GOES EAST A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE 03.12Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS
BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER WEST. HAVE KEPT A
BLEND OF THE FORECASTS GOING...BUT IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT IT WILL
BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WITH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
THE GFS HAS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1233 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING BKN TO OVC SKIES TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO
11 KFT...THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 3 TO 4 KFT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACTIVITY AT THE TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
STRONGER FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SO THINKING
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD MOST LIKELY FALL AS SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. HAVE LOWERED CLOUD
BASES TO 3500 FT AT KLSE STARTING AT 10Z TONIGHT...AND LOWERED
CLOUD BASES AT KRST TO 3000 FT STARTING AT 09Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
258 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP