Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/02/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1029 AM MDT WED OCT 31 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOKING REASONABLE. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR WIND FORECASTS FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. VFR WITH
UNLIMITED CEILINGS TO CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM MDT WED OCT 31 2012/
SHORT TERM...LITTLE TO EXPOUND UPON WEATHERWISE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BIG UPPER RIDGE NOW MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO WITH ITS
UNSEASONABLY WARM...DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LITTLE WIND FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS WHERE WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT 8-12 DEGS F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE. AVERAGE MAX TEMP FOR DENVER TODAY IS 59. BY NIGHTFALL...HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE UP STREAM OVER IDAHO WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER AND A FEW MORE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. CLOUDS MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH
READINGS AGAIN WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BIT OF
CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THIS ACROSS COLORADO AND ITS EFFECTS WILL MAINLY BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND WILL ONLY LEAVE
IN THE ISOLATED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO DRY LOW
LEVELS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. COOLING BY AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR
THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND THEN ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SATURDAY.
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE FLOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH. STILL AIRMASS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP. SOME WARMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. MAY SEE A TIME THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS
IN THE DENVER METRO AREA WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
450 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2012
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The far reaches of the remnants of Sandy will continue to provide
the local area with breezy conditions today. Expect frequent gusts
up to 25 mph for most locations. Otherwise, today will be slightly
warmer than yesterday with high temperatures reaching the 70
degree mark area wide. No rain is expected today.
The continued strong winds, now shifting to a more westerly
direction will increase surf along westward facing Panhandle
beaches. The elevated winds and increased surf will create
dangerous rip current conditions along Bay and Gulf counties.
Reference our Coastal Hazard Message for more information.
Overnight, a piece of shortwave energy will rotate around the base
of the large eastern U.S. low pressure and may generate scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two over our coastal
waters. Land areas should remain dry with clouds clearing, and
lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40s across Alabama and
Georgia, and near 50 degrees across inland areas of north Florida.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...
Through the end of the week the east coast trough will gradually
pull north, and surface high pressure will build into the region.
The main effect from this will be a gradual warming trend with
both afternoon and overnight temperatures. Expect highs to climb
through the middle and upper 70s, with overnight low slowly
climbing to the 50 degree mark by Friday night. No rain is
expected both Thursday and Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Wednesday]...
The latest available GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement,
showing the next cold front passage (albeit slow) Sunday night and
Monday. The synoptic low level flow leading up to this frontal
passage does not look very conducive for a major influx of deep
layer moisture and/or instability, so the PoP for this period
(20-30%) is not that far above climatology. Temperatures will be
well above average through Sunday, especially during the daytime
when highs will reach the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will return
to near average behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday, with
Monday being somewhat of a transition day.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 09Z Wednesday]...
Low level wind shear magnitudes were approaching significant levels
at KVLD, KTLH, and KABY as surface wind speeds dropped below 5 KT
and winds aloft remained rather strong. However, the latest RAP and
local WRF forecast the nocturnal jet to actually weaken a bit
through dawn, which should limit this threat. Otherwise we expect
unlimited vis and cigs, with west-northwest winds increasing to 8 to
13 KT by this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong winds generated by the pressure difference between the
remnants of Sandy and high pressure in the Gulf will diminish
gradually as what was Sandy weakens and moves north. However,
Cautionary conditions are expected to continue through tonight
before winds and seas go calm by Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
This will be one of those days when conditions will be close to our
various local Red Flag criteria. After coordinating with our
surrounding offices, we decided to drop the watches for GA & AL and
keep the warning for all our FL zones for today. The modest
moistening trend should prevent AL from meeting critical conditions,
and the fuel moisture is not quite low enough in south GA. We will
issue a Fire Wx Watch for all our FL counties for Thursday, as
conditions will be similar to today.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Since there has been no heavy rain in our region for several
weeks, and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 49 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 72 58 74 57 78 / 0 10 0 0 0
Dothan 71 45 73 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 70 44 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 69 47 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 69 53 76 48 78 / 0 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 72 59 74 57 76 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Bay and Gulf
county beaches.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM EDT /Noon CDT/ this afternoon to
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for all of North Florida.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for all of North Florida.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
121 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE THROUGH EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
REMNANT LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE TRIED TO TRIM POP BACK IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS WHERE PSBL AND GRADUALLY RAMP THEM BACK UP AS
NEXT BAND OF SHRA ROTATES IN THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE GULF
OF MAINE. SO FAR GUIDANCE IS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SECONDARY
PEAK IN SHRA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE LOT...BRINGING
ANOTHER HEAVY BAND THRU BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. ATTM KBOX HAS MWS OUT
FOR TSRA ABOUT TO PUSH INTO NARRAGANSETT BAY...WHICH MATCHES THE
HRRR DEPICTION NICELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW...OR SANDY REMNANTS...IS ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS TUE EVENING.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ME AND
NORTHERN NH MOUNTAINS AS OF 1030 PM. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST ALL NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE...AND
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. AS COLDER AIR IS INTRODUCED TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM...COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY WILL HAVE MIGRATED INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF NH AND MAINE WITH ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME WITH NO REAL FOCUS OR FORCING
MECHANISM BESIDES OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FILL AND MOVE EAST...DRIFTING OVER NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF VFR IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR WED NIGHT
IN CEILINGS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KHIE AND KLEB.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE AND
THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALMOST
GUARANTEE AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MIGHT BE REACHED SUNDAY MORNING
AND SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THAT COULD EXACERBATE ANY
ISSUES FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED TIL 12Z.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
223 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE W.
SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND A HI PRES RDG OVER MN IS
CAUSING STRONG N WINDS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SOLID GALES OVER LK SUP/MI AND SOME WIND ADVY GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE 12Z GRB ROAB INDICATES N WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AS LO AS
2K FT AGL AND WITHIN THE SFC-H875 MIXED LYR. OVER THE W CLOSER TO
THE MN RDG...WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER. THE TREND EARLY THIS AFTN HAS
BEEN FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH SLOWLY FILLING SANDY REMNANTS
IN PA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY TO THE
W THRU THE DAY. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A STABLE TEMP PROFILE MAINLY
BLO 0C...BUT THERE IS AN ELEVATED WARM LYR PRESENT ARND H85 WITH THE
12Z TEMP AT THAT LVL 2C. SO THE PCPN HAS BEEN A MIX...WITH MAINLY SN
AND RA. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER ERN UPR MI HAVE ALSO REPORTED SLEET
WITH THE WBLB BLO THE ELEVATED WARM LYR WELL BLO 0C. VERY DRY AIR
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB ROAB EXPLAINS THE SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD AND THE LIMITED PCPN INTENSITY... BUT MOISTENING OFF LK SUP
HAS LED TO PLENTY OF LO CLDS OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
WINDS AND PCPN COVERAGE/TYPE PLUS POTENTIAL SN AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THRU WED.
TNGT...THE REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNW AND
OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z WED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH PRES FALLS
WEAKENING THE MN RDG AS WELL THRU THE NGT...EXPECT WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. SO PLAN TO LET GOING WIND ADVYS EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED. BUT AS UPR HGTS CONT TO FALL...DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W...WITH THE W EDGE REACHING NEAR THE HURON MTNS
OR SO BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MSTR WL BE SPREADING TO THE
W...LARGER SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION AT H7 ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
SANDY/GENERAL DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY OVERALL.
THE 12Z NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
QPF...WITH AMOUNTS GREATER OVER THE E AND THE HURON MTNS...WHERE
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT/OMEGA/SOME LK ENHANCED COMPONENT WL ENHANCE
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND OFFSET THE MID LVL
DRYING. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP ON THE QPF FOR
THE SCNTRL...WITH LTL PCPN FCST IN THIS AREA...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ALSO MAINTAINING THE DRIER LLVLS. THERE SHOULD BE NO PCPN W OF A
LINE FM BARAGA TO IMT OR SO. GOING POPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. PTYPE WL
BE TRICKY WITH LACK OF LARGER SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MAINLY SN AS THE PTYPE...DZ MAY
DOMINATE AT TIMES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE NEAR SFC LYR. SOME WARM AIR INTRUDING FM THE E WL
ALSO MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LYR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. SO WL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SLEET IN
THAT AREA. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MSTR EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ AND SFC
TEMPS GENERALLY HOLDING ABV FRZG WITH LK SUP MODIFICATION OFFSETTING
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL BE NO MORE THAN A FEW
INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
WED...LO PRES/REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT N INTO WRN QUEBEC
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CORRESPONDING DIMINISHING WINDS OVER UPR
MI. THE DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE E HALF...BUT
PERSISTENT LACK OF SGNFT UPR SUPPORT/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL CUT
BACK ON PCPN AMNTS AWAY FM AREAS THAT PICK UP SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN SLOWLY BACKING FLOW N TO NNW. BUT EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...WEAKENING CYC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING PCPN AMNTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
OUR SLOW MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE BY 00Z
THURSDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW MOVES FROM W PA THIS AFTERNOON TO W NY
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE N PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS W QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND E OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A MIXED BAG OF CHANGING PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
AS TEMPERATURES GO FROM BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT /PARTICULARLY OVER
W AND CENTRAL COUNTIES/ INTO THE 40S MOST AFTERNOONS.
THE RESULT OF THE LOW DRIFTING N FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE N-NW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE FIRST ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE REGION...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ON THURSDAY PUSHING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WIN OUT FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END
FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR COMPRISED OF 850MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -7C
WARMING TO A CWA AVERAGE -2C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MODELS HANDLE THE FCST PRETTY WELL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT
THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT 500MB LOW
PUSHING IN FROM ND/MN. THE MORE WRAPPED UP 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY/.
THE NEXT SFC LOW NEARING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE SET UP TO OUR
NW /BETWEEN S SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR N MANITOBA/ AT 18Z MONDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...SW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND BECOME MORE W TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAN THE 30/12Z ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
SIDE A BIT CLOSER TO THE PERSONALLY AND HPC PREFERRED ECMWF. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE WINDS FROM MONDAY ON IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES
ITS CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO MN AND AN INTENSE LOW OVER WRN PA MOVING
NW TO LAKE ERIE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KSAW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 25KTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH AT KIWD AND KCMX
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. MOISTURE FLOWING OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BRING BKN CIG TO MVFR LEVELS AT CMX/IWD
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF RESIDUAL DRY AIR
WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCT AND/OR VFR AT CMX WHERE NRLY FLOW DOES NOT
FAVOR LOWER CIGS.
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW GOING AT KSAW WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTO WED AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PCPN BANDS WEAKEN. DO NOT EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 00Z/THU.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
EXPECT SOLID N GALES TO 40-45 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY WED MORNING TO NO MORE THAN 30 KTS WED
AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N INTO SE CANADA AND WEAKENS. WAVES AS HI
AS 15-18 FT OVER THE SCENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-248-251-
264-265-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
843 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EVENING UPDATE...A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES HEADING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. WILL STICK
WITH IT HERE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST. DEW POINTS
ARE MOVING UP AND TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE LIMITED TO RAIN. DID MIX A LITTLE SNOW IN LATE
LATE TONIGHT... NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN THAT. THE PROBLEM AREA IS
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER... MAINLY WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM OPHEIM GOING EAST. MODERATE EAST WIND
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN AROUND FREEZING AND A FAIR
THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO HAVE THE
FREEZING RAIN PROFILE FOR SCOBEY AND PLENTYWOOD. DECIDED TO PUT
OUT A WSW FOR FREEZING RAIN... EVEN THROUGH TRACE TO A HUNDERTH IS
THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE FOR THE REGION. SIDED WITH ADVISORY FOR
ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES ACROSS CREEKS AND SOME WALKWAYS.
ROADWAYS AND MOST WALKWAYS SHOULD BE FINE WITH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES... REALLY ONLY CONCERNED WITH ELEVATED ONES THAT CAN
CATCH MOTORISTS OFF GUARD. PROTON
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE NORTHEAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT.
THIS FRONT LIES FROM ABOUT FORT BENTON TO ABOUT BROADUS
(NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA). A VIGOROUS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. CLOUDS ARE LOWERING AS
INDICATED BY RADAR ECHOES OVER BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW RIDES UP AND OVER THE COLDER AIR. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
IN THE MEANTIME...FOG HAS THINNED A BIT IN NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY
AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 6 PM LOOKS GOOD. PATCHY FOG IS
BEING HELPED BY FORT PECK LAKE THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER SOUTH IN
VALLEY COUNTY.
ON FRIDAY...MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR POURING INTO THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL CHANGE
ANY RAIN TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.
ON SATURDAY...LOOK FOR A RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
BUT TEMPS WILL BE COOL AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE (FROM ABOUT A CUT BANK TO BILLINGS). JAMBA
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH WILL SET OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND NORMAL THIS WEEK END...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
BRING IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE TREKKING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SENDS A WEAK
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT TEMPERED BY OVER
CAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ENERGETIC TROUGH DRIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL SWEEP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN A WEEK OUT BUT
THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DISTINCT COLD FRONT THAT
COULD TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW AROUND FRIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS SEEM
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL AND THE TROUGH ITSELF IS LIKELY TO SWEEP OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS STORM WILL BEAR WATCHING
AS THE MODELS EVOLVE.
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY FOR
COORDINATION. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE US AND EASTERN HALF OF CANADA...
WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BOUNDARY OF THESE TWO FEATURES BEGINNING IN THE
LONG TERM. UP NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN TERRITORIES SPREADING BACK
INTO ALASKA COLD ARCTIC AIR IS BUILDING AT THE SURFACE.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE COUPLET IS DEVELOPING OF
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY AS THE
RIDGE OF THE COAST COMBINES WITH THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. CHINOOK
WARMING AND DOWN-SLOPE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. THIS SHOULD
CREATE A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO START. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE PREDICTED RIDGE WILL BE IN FULL PROMINENCE AND THEN WANE ON
MONDAY AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FALL OUT OF THE CANADIAN TERRITORIES
AND SWEEP DOWN THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE DEPRESSING THE RIDGE
ALOFT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL SPILL OUT OF CANADA
AND MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
COLD AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE WHILE A NEW RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE TWO
AIR- MASSES WILL SET UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH INTO AND FROM THE DAKOTAS. TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT A CLOUD DECK WILL FORM AND SOME POTENTIAL
OVER- RUNNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST. MODELS APPEAR
TO BE SPATIALLY MOVING THE BOUNDARY AROUND QUITE OFTEN FROM ONE
MODEL TYPE AND TEMPORAL RUN TO THE NEXT. PRECIP WILL EXIST DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT A WIDE AREA OF POSSIBILITIES FOR ITS PLACEMENT IS
PRESENTED. POPS ARE WASHED OUT HERE BUT IN A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND. THE PRESENCE OF
THICK CLOUDS THROUGH SOME OF THESE PERIODS WILL MODERATE THE
DIURNAL TRENDS TO A MORE NARROW THAN NORMAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXITS AND A NEW TROUGH
FORMS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CREATES AN EXPRESS LANE FOR
PACIFIC MOISTURE AROUND THE TROUGHS EDGES WHICH TRANSLATES TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA. THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALSO
PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC INTRUSION NEAR THE SURFACE BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUOUS STRENGTHENING OF OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE
WHICH REQUIRED A SUBSEQUENT POP RAISE AND TEMPERATURE DECREASE.
THE PRESENCE OF THICK CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THESE PERIODS WILL
AGAIN MODERATE THE DIURNAL TRENDS TO A MORE NARROW THAN NORMAL 10
DEGREES. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWERED VISIBILITIES MAY BE
OCCASIONALLY IMPACT KGGW. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS. SCT/BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR DANIELS...
SHERIDAN...NORTHERN VALLEY.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS LIMITED TO MID AND HIGH LEVELS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BUT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
PRIMARY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS SEASONABLY MILD AND FAIRLY
TRANQUIL PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A WEAK 1012MB LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING TWO MAIN PURPOSES AT THIS HOUR...FOR ONE
SEPARATING PRIMARILY EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA FROM PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WEST...AND IS ALSO
SETTING UP A RESPECTABLE TEMP GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS WITHIN MOST
OF THE CWA RANGING FROM ONLY MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S
WEST...WHILE JUST BARELY WEST OF THE CWA LOW-MID 70S PREVAIL AT
SITES SUCH AS NORTH PLATTE/MCCOOK. FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS TODAY
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST VALUES.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION...IN BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND THE DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH/POST-TROPICAL SANDY CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER PA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
CWA AT MID- AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF A MID
LEVEL DECK WAS SKIRTING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE ANOTHER BATCH
OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BLACK HILL REGION WAS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE
HORIZON. THE EASTERN NEBRASKA CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF AN 80+KT 300MB JET STREAK
POSITIONED OVERHEAD.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE BREEZES WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS POST-SUNSET TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE
40S ALL AREAS BY 03Z. FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THINGS GET
SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...AS SEVERAL HIGHER RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ALSO THE HRRR TRY BREAKING OUT WHAT
WOULD LIKELY BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MOST
LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS
FORCING...WHICH IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS APPEARS TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS A BIT CLEARER WHEN EXAMINING
SATURATION ALONG THE 305K ISENTROPIC SFC PER THE 12Z NAM...AND IS
ALSO CAPTURED IN THE NAM BY A BATCH OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
700MB WORKING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BASED ON 12 NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AM FAIRLY DOUBTFUL
THAT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL RESULT...GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP APPEARS TO JUSTIFY AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE...AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS
WORDING POST-MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT WOULD SEEM THE MOST FAVORED AREA
FOR THIS SPRINKLE/LIGHT RAIN IS NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES...DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL BRING THIS SPRINKLE
WORDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS AN OVERTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE.
AGAIN...NOT LOOKING LIKE ALL THAT BIG OF A DEAL...BUT NONETHELESS
A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALONG THESE SAME LINES...SKY
COVER WAS BOOSTED INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
SAME AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT AGAIN
QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...AM NOT
ADVERTISING A TRULY NON-DIURNAL CURVE...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A
FAIRLY EFFICIENT FALL THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...CHANGED LOWS VERY LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE CWA SETTLING BETWEEN 34-39
DEGREES.
FOR THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE VERY MILD HALLOWEEN IN A ROW...AND THE THIRD
TIME IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THAT HALLOWEEN HIGHS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S CWA-WIDE. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER GENERALLY NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BISECT THE CWA...SEPARATING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN THE EAST
FROM WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WERE INCREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS STILL ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 10-14 MPH
MOST AREAS. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES INTO THE CWA...SOME OF THE
WARMER AIR OBSERVED TODAY WEST OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA...AND HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS ROUGHLY 2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST NEARLY ALL AREAS...AND MAYBE NOT EVEN ENOUGH PER THE
NAM/MET SOLUTION. EVEN SO...NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 70S
EAST TO MID-UPPER 70S WEST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TOP 10-TO-15
WARMEST HALLOWEEN ON RECORD FOR MOST SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HWY 281. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN
INTO AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RANGE OF 18-20 PERCENT ACROSS
SOME OF THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY FIRE
DANGER MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW GIVEN THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL SHORT OF CRITICAL
20/25 MPH THRESHOLDS. FOCUSING ON PRECIP/CLOUD TRENDS...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES TO LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME
PERIOD...AS SUBTLE-TO-MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH A STEADY POST-SUNRISE
DEPARTURE OF ANY POTENTIALLY SOLID LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MAIN THEME: AN STRETCH OF PLEASANT AUTUMN WX WILL CONT THRU
FRI WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THEN A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE NICE WX RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAZARDS: NONE FORESEEABLE.
QPF: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN LOOK SCANT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV.
HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS OF SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE
NOV 10-14 TIMEFRAME.
BIG PICTURE: NAO IS NEGATIVE AND WHILE THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL
TEMPORARILY LOWER HGTS IN VICINITY OF GREENLAND OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH THAT HGT ANOMALIES WILL
REMAIN POSITIVE THRU MID-NOV. THIS FAVORS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PAC WILL YIELD A COUPLE OF
DECENT TROFS THAT COULD EVENTUALLY THREATEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POSSIBLE EVENT AROUND NOV 6TH.
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN CASE THEY DECIDE TO COME BACK TO IT.
TEMPS: MODELS ARE NOW DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR UNTIL AFTER
THU-FRI WHICH IS WHY WE STRUGGLED YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR THU.
THE EXTREME DISPARITY WITH 00Z MOS CYCLE HAS VANISHED AND THE 12Z
MET GUIDANCE IS NOW WARMER. FRI`S NOW LOOKING WARMER THAN IT DID
YESTERDAY AS WELL.
SOME TYPE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WED NGT. BELIEVE THE
COOLER AIR NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEAK THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU FRI AND
YANKS THE COOL FRONT SWD.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
WED NGT: WEAK FRONT/TROF PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANCE.
THU: M/SUNNY AND VERY NICE /65-76F/. 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. P-M/CLOUDY /63-76F/. 10 ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW CLOUDS: INCREASED SKY TO M/CLOUDY IN THE FRI NGT-SAT MRNG FCST
AND BELIEVE THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
SAT: M/CLOUDY AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER. AS OF NOW 53-61F AND THIS IS
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.
RAIN: THE PERSISTENT ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF HAS SWEPT THE QUALITY
LOW-LEVEL MSTR WELL S OF THE CONUS. MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT NIGHT:
DOES SYSTEM ENTRAIN GULF MSTR FAST ENUF TO RAIN HERE BEFORE IT EXITS
TO THE E? CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THE FCST IS TOO LOW ON PCPN POTENTIAL.
IT`S STILL CONCEIVABLE IT RAINS HERE BUT BOTTOM LINE IS IT WON`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR .05 QPF OR HIGHER CONT TO
BE OVER FAR ERN KS/NEB.
SUN-TUE: A RETURN TO PLEASANT WX IN DRY NW FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL MON. WE COULD SEE ONE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL /+10F/
TEMPS.
11/6: SOME LIGHT PCPN?
AROUND 11/10: LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES A POSSIBILITY. THIS PER
SEVERAL DAYS OF RUNS FROM THE GFS. THIS TIME FRAME IS APPROACHING AT
THE TAIL END OF THE EC ENSEMBLES AND THERE`S A BIG TROF FCST OVER
THE WRN USA. IF THIS WORKS OUT RIGHT...IT COULD END UP A HEALTHY
PCPN EVENT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CIRCULATION WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL...INDICATE
THE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA
HAVE BASICALLY DISSIPATED. WILL NOW INDICATE JUST A CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS THE MAIN OBSCURITIES TO THE STARS AND MOON. WESTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY TYPE OF FALLOUT
TO MIN TEMPS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE 40-45
MIN TEMP RANGE WITH ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS HITTING UPPER 30S.
THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...AS A RESULT NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THRESHOLDS MAY BRIEFLY PEAK
ABOVE MINOR FLOOD FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF
WILMINGTON AND SOUTHWARD TO FORT FISHER. THE TIME-LINE WILL BE IN
THE 1230Z-1400Z WED. THE WILMINGTON TIDE GAGE IN THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD IS 5.5 FT MLLW. ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE LATER SHIFT TO DECIDE
WHETHER AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST DILEMMA CENTERS AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY HAS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
MID LEVEL FLOW IS ON THE MOVE AS SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING FINALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TO SOME EXTENT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
THURSDAY BUT SUBSIDES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL
WINDS DECOUPLE LEAVING IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS IF THEY DO AT
ALL. MAV AND MET NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR WITH 35/37 IN LUMBERTON AND
FLORENCE RESPECTIVELY. SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW MEANS A LITTLE
HIGHER AND THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. THE
SAME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING PERHAPS SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COOLER
OF THE TWO. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HPC FAVORS A FIFTY/FIFTY BLEND OF
THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEE NO REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AT THIS POINT.
THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
VALUES FOR SUNDAY. CONSIDERING THE FACT WE ARE OPTING FOR ECMWF
PRODUCTS...ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGED FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION WHICH
MATCHES ADJACENT OFFICES BETTER AS WELL...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS SCT/BKN 250KFT THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN 4-6KFT.
GENERALLY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
HURRICANE SANDY...DRIFTS TO THE N. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KT AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE REMNANTS OF SANDY...AND WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESIDE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. WITH AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND
FIELD...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT RANGE MAY BE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOCAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. HERE THE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL RUN
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LOCAL COASTLINE...AND AS A RESULT...A LOWER
RANGE OF SEAS. HOWEVER...SIG SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS ZONE WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGHER THEN THE OTHER MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE LONGER
FETCH. IE. OCEAN CREST PIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 4 FT WAVES ALL
EVENING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS AT 8 FT. PERIODS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE 5 TO 6 SECOND RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OF
15-20 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WINDS DROP
DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE
INCREASES WINDS TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE LATE. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY WARRANT A SCEC HEADLINE WITH 3-5 FEET THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 2-4 FEET FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...FOCUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL BE WIND
SHIFT FROM A SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
A RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD QUICKLY VEER LATE SUNDAY TO SOUTHWEST
10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL FEATURE FAIRLY BENIGN VALUES ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO RECENT VALUES WITH 2-4 FEET GENERALLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 27-31 PERCENT ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA TO 30-35
PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS COULD SPELL A TRICKY FIRE WEATHER
DAY FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH SANDY
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER (10-15 MPH)
ON THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE EVEN LOWER...25-30
PERCENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
FIRE WEATHER...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CIRCULATION WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL...INDICATE
THE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA
HAVE BASICALLY DISSIPATED. WILL NOW INDICATE JUST A CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS THE MAIN OBSCURITIES TO THE STARS AND MOON. WESTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY TYPE OF FALLOUT
TO MIN TEMPS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE 40-45
MIN TEMP RANGE WITH ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS HITTING UPPER 30S.
THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...AS A RESULT NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THRESHOLDS MAY BRIEFLY PEAK
ABOVE MINOR FLOOD FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF
WILMINGTON AND SOUTHWARD TO FORT FISHER. THE TIME-LINE WILL BE IN
THE 1230Z-1400Z WED. THE WILMINGTON TIDE GAGE IN THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD IS 5.5 FT MLLW. ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE LATER SHIFT TO DECIDE
WHETHER AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION OF
FORMER HURRICANE SANDY WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH OF THE UNITED STATES
INTO EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DISCRETE
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY COULD GUST TO 25 MPH. WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE
TO MYRTLE BEACH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ONLY 60 IN THE
LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH.
AS SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST INLAND AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS. UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LESS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED BUT A COLD AIRMASS
WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM MOS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ANTICIPATED
TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHING ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIFT NORTH...REPLACED BY SUBTLE BUT BRIEF RIDGING FOR
THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE PERIOD PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM UPPER
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THIS FEATURE HAVING SOME
IMPACT ON THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE SHORTWAVE INTERACT WITH SURFACE
LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEMS
LIKELY AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COOL
AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MODIFY OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR CLIMO WITH ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION LATER
SUN. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FROST INLAND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS SCT/BKN 250KFT THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN 4-6KFT.
GENERALLY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
HURRICANE SANDY...DRIFTS TO THE N. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KT AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE REMNANTS OF SANDY...AND WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESIDE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. WITH AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND
FIELD...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT RANGE MAY BE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOCAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. HERE THE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL RUN
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LOCAL COASTLINE...AND AS A RESULT...A LOWER
RANGE OF SEAS. HOWEVER...SIG SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS ZONE WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGHER THEN THE OTHER MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE LONGER
FETCH. IE. OCEAN CREST PIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 4 FT WAVES ALL
EVENING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS AT 8 FT. PERIODS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE 5 TO 6 SECOND RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND FORMER
HURRICANE SANDY. FORTUNATELY WITH THE SHORT OFFSHORE FETCH...SEA
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY FROM THE LARGE SEAS RECENTLY
OBSERVED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE NC WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW INTO SUN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DROP CLOSE TO 10 KT LATE SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. MOVEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FROM
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SUN. DECREASING WIND AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 27-31 PERCENT ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA TO 30-35
PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS COULD SPELL A TRICKY FIRE WEATHER
DAY FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH SANDY
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER (10-15 MPH)
ON THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE EVEN LOWER...25-30
PERCENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
FIRE WEATHER...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
931 PM CDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN
ALBERTA AND MONTANA. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT REPORTING STATIONS YET. 00Z NAM INDICATES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER QPF THAT 18Z RUN HOWEVER HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS STILL HAVE SMALLER AMOUNTS AT LEAST OVERNIGHT.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING WESTERN TAFS
AFTER 06Z AND SPREADING TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF AFTER 12Z. SOME
RAIN APPEARING IN CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH WHEN IT REACHES DAKOTAS
WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. CIGS STILL MAINLY VFR WITH
SCATTERED MVFR WEST AND IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS BORDER IN EASTERN
MONTANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR NDZ001>004-009>012-017>019-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR NDZ005-013-022-023-025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HW
AVIATION...HW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NWS PORTLAND OR
942 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE FINAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN TO THE DISTRICT. SUBTROPICAL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARM WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS EXPECTED TO GET SNOW. LATER
THIS WEEK THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK UP AS OUR STALLED FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND COOLER LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. EXPECT A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SWINGS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HAVE SEEN A BIT OF A BREAK THIS EVENING AS THE
OFFSHORE UPPER LOW RE-ORIENTS AND ELONGATES TO A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
DIRECTION. THIS HAS LARGELY SHIFTED THE MOIST FLOW TO BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL NOT FAVOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AS MUCH
SINCE THE FLOW IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND CASCADE RANGES.
WE WILL...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN FROM
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFTING ALOFT MAINLY WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENT GRIDS/FORECASTS AND MODELS ARE HANDLING
THE SITUATION AND REALLY DID NOT HAVE MUCH TO CHANGE. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR CONTINUED CONCERNS. /JBONK
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE ASSOCIATED
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE WED. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGES. GIVEN ITS SLOW MOVING APPROACH...THE COLD FRONT COULD
EASILY DUMP AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE THROUGH WED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN.
THE MAIN BAND OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE
CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. AS SUCH...POPS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH WED
NIGHT AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES WITH THE CHANGE TO A MORE SHOWERY AIR MASS. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES LATE WED AND THU...AND WITH
THE COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL NOT DISCOUNT THE THREAT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST. /27
.LONG TERM...SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW ON FRI
SHOULD SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON FRI NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS MODELED TO BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST.
THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE SERIES OF FRONTS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE FCST REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO CONTINUE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS SNOW ONLY ON THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION....RAIN CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE COAST AND THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF...LATE THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CIGS MAY IMPROVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST
DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...AND
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERIODICALLY DROP INTO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR TAF SITES AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AGAIN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE NORM TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS PASS. EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT MVFR OR LOWER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS.
&&
.MARINE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN WATERS IN
THE GALE WARNING. WINDS REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...THE RAP PRODUCES SLIGHTLY MORE
CYCLOGENESIS. THE MODEL NOW HAS A CLOSED 997MB LOW OFF GRAYS
HARBOR BY 15Z. THIS ALLOWS GALES TO SPREAD WELL INTO OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...AND AS A RESULT...I WENT AHEAD WITH THE UPGRADE. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WAVE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF 130 W AND 40 N WILL RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER MOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE GFS
SHOWS LITTLE RECOGNITION OF THIS FEATURE...APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE NAM CERTAINLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE EXISTING IN ITS
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BUT IS UNIMPRESSIVE. IN CONTRAST...THE
LATEST RAP DEVELOPS A MINIATURE LOW THAT RIDES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND PRODUCES SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
SOUTH OF IT. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RAPS PLAUSIBLE
HANDLING OF THE SITUATION...AND WINDS HOVERING JUST BELOW
GALES...I UPGRADED THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS TO A GALE WARNING. I
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT GALES WILL AT
THE VERY LEAST DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS.
OUR FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TURN TO THE PARENT 990MB LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING DUE WEST OF OREGON AS IT FINALLY APPROACHES THE COAST. AS
IT DOES SO...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
OUR COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
EXPECT SEAS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THEY
SHOULD REMAIN STEEP AND MAY VERY WELL EXCEED 10 FT WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. /NEUMAN
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MOST RIVERS ARE RESPONDING VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECASTS
AND DO NOT HAVE ANY ELEVATED CONCERN FOR A WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT
AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST OREGON/
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES. THE RELATIVE LULL THIS EVENING IS GIVING A CHANCE FOR
DRAINING TO HAPPEN. A VAST MAJORITY OF RIVER SYSTEMS ARE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL LEVELS. THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL
SOME ISSUES WORTH ADDRESSING.
THE GRAYS RIVER AT ROSBURG ACHIEVED FLOOD STAGE AROUND 6 PM EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND WAS JUST BEGINNING TO LEVEL OFF AT THAT TIME. DONT
EXPECT THE STAGE TO GO MORE THAN A HALF FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO SEE WHAT THE 930 PM
OBSERVATION COLLECTIVE FROM THERE BRINGS TO BE ABSOLUTELY SURE. THE
FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED UNLESS NEW INFORMATION
DICTATES OTHERWISE.
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MINOR FLOODING OF
THE TILLAMOOK RIVER DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS AND RUNOFF POTENTIALLY
COINCIDING WITH AN EBBING TIDE. WOULD EXPECT ANY IMMEDIATE ISSUES
FOR THAT RIVER TO HAVE SELF REGULATED AS THE TIDE REACHES THE LOW
POINT SHORTLY. WILL SEE ANOTHER HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT
LOWER THAN THE AFTERNOON HIGH EXPECTED TOMORROW. MAY THEN AGAIN SEE
MINOR FLOODING AS THE FINAL ROUND OF HEAVY RUNOFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AS THE AFTERNOON TIDE INCREASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. OTHER RIVERS DRAINING INTO
TILLAMOOK BAY, SUCH AS THE WILSON AND TRASK, WILL RUN SWIFT AND HIGH
BUT STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
925 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE COOLER IR CLOUD TOPS AT AROUND 130W OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST. THIS WAVE IS SHOWING A BIT IN THE NAM12 WITH THE RAP
PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE THE BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND THE RAP IS
SHOWING GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE UPDATED TO MATCH. THE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK WITH THE OTH-ACV GRADIENT ONLY AROUND 4-5 MB...MUCH LOWER
THAN DESIRED FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THE COAST AND THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION: MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COOS COAST THIS EVENING. PIREPS
FROM KOTH INDICATE LLWS ~30KT AS LOW AS 500 FT AGL ALONG WITH
MODERATE TURBULENCE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES PARALLEL TO THE
COAST. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR AT THE COAST BUT WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND INCREASES.
IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND WILL
SPREAD INLAND BY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS RAIN
SPREADS IN. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES WEST OF THE
CASCADES (INCLUDING KRBG/KMFR/KSIY) AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS...WAVE
TURBULENCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES UNTIL LATER TOMORROW BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
AVIATION...UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION: MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COOS COAST THIS EVENING. PIREPS
FROM KOTH INDICATE LLWS ~30KT AS LOW AS 500 FT AGL ALONG WITH
MODERATE TURBULENCE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES PARALLEL TO THE
COAST. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR AT THE COAST BUT WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND INCREASES.
IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND WILL
SPREAD INLAND BY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS RAIN
SPREADS IN. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES WEST OF THE
CASCADES (INCLUDING KRBG/KMFR/KSIY) AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS...WAVE
TURBULENCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES UNTIL LATER TOMORROW BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. -WRIGHT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER
LAKE AREAS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVEL INITIALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL LOWER BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 6000 FEET. RAIN OF AROUND 1.5
TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECT FOR COASTAL AREAS. FOR INLAND WESTERN
VALLEYS EXPECT RAINFALL GENERALLY AROUND 0.5 TO .75 INCHES. WHILE
EAST OF THE CASCADES...GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OR
LESS IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES...THEN IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT IS GENERALLY
FORECASTING AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE CASCADES RAIN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING SHOWERY WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THEN A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, THE AMPLITUDE OF WHICH IS STILL IN QUESTION.
THE GFS40 MODEL, WHICH IS FAVORED OVER THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME,
INDICATES A FLATTER RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DOES. THE GFS40`S SOLUTION
INDICATES WEAK WARM AIR OVERRUNNING CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA...MUCH
LIKE WE`VE SEEN OF LATE...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE ECMWF IS A FAIR
DEGREE DRIER AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS FURTHER
AND FOLDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF US MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN EAST
SIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS ONLY SKIRTING THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ376.
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
853 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 1/2 MILE ALONG NOTHERN
AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. 00Z
NAM/00Z RAP KEEP BL-875MB WINDS E-NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFN UPDATE
AREA OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER FROM KPHP-K2WX THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHEAST IN THE RAPID CITY AREA...WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. THE NARROW AXIS OF LOW
CIGS/FOG FROM KICR-KRAP/KPHP-K2WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. 18Z NAM/21Z RUC SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS MIGHT REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 108W HAS SHARPEND AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE. IT WILL DIG
SE WARD ON FRIDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS
PRODUCED HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE OUR STRATUS AND FOG LAYER TODAY WITH
THE FIRST WAVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND
WAVE GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURGES OF COOLER AIR WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK WIND SHIFTS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THIS AFTERNOONS RETARDED TEMPERATURE RISE.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR BUTTE-CUSTER CO
PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
641 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHEAST IN THE RAPID CITY AREA...WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. THE NARROW AXIS OF LOW
CIGS/FOG FROM KICR-KRAP/KPHP-K2WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. 18Z NAM/21Z RUC SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS MIGHT REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
NARROW AXIS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LCL LIFR VSBY FROM K2WX-KRAP-KICR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY...THE CIGS/VSBY WILL IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE VFR
WITH BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 108W HAS SHARPEND AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE. IT WILL DIG
SE WARD ON FRIDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS
PRODUCED HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE OUR STRATUS AND FOG LAYER TODAY WITH
THE FIRST WAVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND
WAVE GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURGES OF COOLER AIR WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK WIND SHIFTS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THIS AFTERNOONS RETARDED TEMPERATURE RISE.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
311 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE LAKE
REGION WITH A WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS AND IR2 IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ESE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND OVER
THE GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND NAPLES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FL PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BACK TO AROUND THE HALF INCH
MARK. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT HIGHS REACHING THE 80-83
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND AND NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S FARTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
INDICATE THE MAIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIMINISHING OR DRYING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SOUTH TOWARD AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WE WILL
KEEP MAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THIS PACKAGE THROUGH THE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REALLY DOES
NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY
AIR WILL BE EXPECTED IF THIS TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
VERIFIES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF MARINE AREAS
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND WILL BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE BY THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LONG DURATIONS WITH
SUB 35 PERCENT RH VALUES COMBINED WITH ERC VALUES IN THE MID 20S
WILL SUPPORT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ACROSS THE AREAS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM GLADES TO INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 57 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 63 81 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIAMI 81 63 82 67 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 79 58 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KMCK. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS EAST OF THE TERMINAL...AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE SHOWS NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VIS...SO NOT PLANNING ON ADDING MENTION TO 06Z
TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AT KGLD AND MIDDAY
FRIDAY AT KMCK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS 22-25KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FROM THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
TONIGHT AS THE GENERAL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEING DEEP INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
/FORMALLY KNOWN AS SANDY/ REMAINING OVER ONTARIO...KEEPING
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH RIDGING ON THE WEST COAST. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SEEN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WAS SEEN FROM THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. LOCALLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS
OVER EASTERN WYOMING...WITH A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AGAIN
WAS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS LED TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. THIS AREA WAS FAIRLY NARROW AFFECTION LOCATIONS
BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 83 AND 281.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH FOG/STRATUS AND ITS
DISSIPATION TODAY...LEADING TO QUESTIONABLE HIGHS. ALSO...SEVERAL
FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FOG/STRATUS ON THURSDAY MORNING STAYED IN PLACE THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN. AS THIS
MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED INTO VERY LOW CEILINGS AGAIN THIS
MORNING...DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AM
QUITE CONCERNED WITH THE SPEED OF DISSIPATION TODAY. THE MODELS
THAT HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS MOISTURE DO PUSH IT OUT BY 18Z...AND
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS...BELIEVE THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT
EAST AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND GET CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH. DID
ADJUST TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND
LONGER...BUT MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
THE EAST COAST TROUGH /WHICH MODELS ARE SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST/
WILL DIVERT THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...SO IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IOWA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. BELIEVE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT IF THE LONG-WAVE STAYS
FURTHER WEST THE SHORTWAVE COULD TRAVEL MORE SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET RAIN WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT THE MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION SO AGAIN...HAVE A DRY FORECAST.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL COME FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM...MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY
OVER NEBRASKA SO IF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION...THIS WOULD BE THE SYSTEM TO DO IT. HOWEVER...THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET WOULD KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THOUGHT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE WARM-AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY SO
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE ATTAINABLE EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA DIGS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AS A
STRONG RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST. AS WAS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN SO
HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COMES...THE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING BACK TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...IN
THE 60S TO POSSIBLY 70S. DON/T HAVE 70S IN THE FORECAST YET BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED IN COMING FORECASTS. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS...DRY AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE SO NO FURTHER RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING WITH VSBYS DOWN AS LOW AS 3SM AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND 5SM
AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND RAP SOLNS...THE THREAT FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF STRATUS
AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION
OF STRATUS TILL NEAR FCST ISSUANCE AND WAIT TO SEE IF IT SPREADS
SOUTH INTO NRN NEBRASKA FROM SRN SD. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
BROKEN CIGS AOA 20000 FT AGL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1053 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
AREA OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER FROM KPHP-K2WX THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 1/2 MILE ALONG NOTHERN
AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. 00Z
NAM/00Z RAP KEEP BL-875MB WINDS E-NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHEAST IN THE RAPID CITY AREA...WITH LOW
STRATUS/FOG MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. THE NARROW AXIS OF LOW
CIGS/FOG FROM KICR-KRAP/KPHP-K2WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. 18Z NAM/21Z RUC SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS MIGHT REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 108W HAS SHARPEND AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE. IT WILL DIG
SE WARD ON FRIDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS
PRODUCED HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE OUR STRATUS AND FOG LAYER TODAY WITH
THE FIRST WAVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND
WAVE GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURGES OF COOLER AIR WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK WIND SHIFTS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THIS AFTERNOONS RETARDED TEMPERATURE RISE.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR BUTTE-CUSTER CO
PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
MONTANA WITH MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR CASPER AND
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. KCDR
HAS REPORTED SOME FOG OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EXPERIENCING WEAK
NORTHEAST FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES LIFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY
THROUGH 15Z...SO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER THE FROPA AND WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 700MB TEMPS
AT -1C (DOWN FROM 5C THIS PAST AFTN). PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 30 KTS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LLVL AND
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS
APPROACH 40 KTS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTN SO
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH 700MB TEMPS STAYING BETWEEN
0C AND -3C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE SLIM TO NONE WITH
THE BEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LARGELY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PRETTY QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING A
BACKDOOR FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY...BUT THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD POSE PROBLEMS WITH
TEMPERATURES IF IT STALLS OUT OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA. THERE IS LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IF THE FRONT DOES STALL...WE
COULD BE TOO HIGH ON OUR TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAKES A GOOD PUSH
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION BEING CHADRON WHERE
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW HAS CAUSED DENSE FOG TO FORM. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS FOG PERSISTING UNTIL 13Z OR SO WHEN
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
THE REGION. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1110 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. LARGE AND DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF SANDY IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER LONGWAVE EAST COAST
TROUGH BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH
HAS DE-AMPLIFIED ENOUGH FOR OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NO LACK
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
SHOWS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A VERY LOW PW VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.65" WAS SAMPLED...WHICH IS ONLY
ABOUT 60% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE DRY COLUMN IS ALLOWING
JUST ABOUT 100% OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE/INSOLATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA AND WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LOWER
LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE/CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY COLUMN...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MOST LOCATION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND URBAN SETTINGS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S...HOWEVER THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BRIEFLY DIP IN
TO UPPER 40S TOWARD SUNRISE.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW A DECENT DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON. IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH
A DEVELOPING LIGHT AFTERNOON FLOW OFF THE NOW RELATIVELY COOLER
SHELF WATERS.
INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS EXITED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST WATERS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO
RIDGES TOWARD FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE SUNDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 61 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 81 59 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 79 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 76 60 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 78 48 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 77 66 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR HERNANDO-LEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A FEW RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY, SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 13Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CROSS THROUGH THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN VEER THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE LAKE
REGION WITH A WEAK DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS AND IR2 IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ESE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND OVER
THE GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND NAPLES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FL PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BACK TO AROUND THE HALF INCH
MARK. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT HIGHS REACHING THE 80-83
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S INLAND AND NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S FARTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
INDICATE THE MAIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIMINISHING OR DRYING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SOUTH TOWARD AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WE WILL
KEEP MAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THIS PACKAGE THROUGH THE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REALLY DOES
NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY
AIR WILL BE EXPECTED IF THIS TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
VERIFIES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF MARINE AREAS
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND WILL BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE BY THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LONG DURATIONS WITH
SUB 35 PERCENT RH VALUES COMBINED WITH ERC VALUES IN THE MID 20S
WILL SUPPORT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ACROSS THE AREAS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM GLADES TO INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 57 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 63 81 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIAMI 81 63 82 67 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 79 58 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
957 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 955 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
GOING FORECAST LARGELY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS NEEDED THIS MORNING. THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH LATEST NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING THESE CLOUDS THICKENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO GET
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE CWA...AND MAY
GET A TAD HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 657 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
HIGH/THIN OVERCAST WILL BE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL THICKENING/LOWERING OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000FT
AFTER 07Z. AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS BY TO THE
SOUTH...A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS KSPI AND KDEC
OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THOSE SITES AFTER 07/08Z...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE N AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL VEER TO E/NE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE TEMPS AND WILL USE A BLEND. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTHERN MO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S OVER CENTRAL
IL WITH GALESBURG DOWN TO 31F...AND LOW TO MID 40S IN SE IL.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S CENTRAL IL AND MID
30S SE IL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM 1031 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MANITOBA AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING
SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS IA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES IN EASTERN IL.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERALL TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. COOLER HIGHS TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER 50S
CENTRAL IL AND MID 50S IN SE IL.
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CO TO WEAKEN TO 1013 MB AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SW OF IL TO SPREAD A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO SE
IL SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER IN FAR SW/SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF IL
TO KEEP NORTHERN AREAS DRIER ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS NW OF THE IL RIVER WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INCLUDING IL/IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
KEEPING IT DRY.
HAVE A JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR SW AREAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SE ACROSS SW MO AND AR WHERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO OUR
SW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH COOL HIGHS MONDAY
AROUND 50F.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IL TUE. NOTICED THE ECMWF MODEL DOES
BRING LIGHT QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND GFS KEEPS QPF NNE OF CENTRAL IL SO WILL
STAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LESS THAN 15%. IL IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DURING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MS VALLEY DURING 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND. ECMWF (ECE) IS 10-15F WARMER THAN GFS (MEX)
BY NEXT FRI. STAYED CLOSE TO ALLBEND TEMPS DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU AND LOW
TO MID 60S FRI.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
AT KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR
SUNSET THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT KMCK...LIGHT WINDS
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY A LITTLE LATER AT KMCK. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1020 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY...WITH SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...BUT MAINTAIN MAINLY CLOUDY AND
CRISP CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF CLEARING INTO EASTERN OHIO WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT CHANGES MADE TO
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR STRANGE YELLOW BALL BEING SEEN ACROSS
PARTS OF REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN OR AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH
RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...THAT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. HENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
NAM AND GFS MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER RESTRICTED
TO LESS THAN 7 KFT AGL...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER WV-MD
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED A CONTINUED SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
LOWS TONIGHT NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
EVENTUAL WEAK WAA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL BE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPS AT 850MB
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS SAT.
ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAA. THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND INVERSIONS ARE VERY LOW. THIS WOULD
MEAN A DRY DAY BUT MORE CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...EAST OF KZZV.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE NEXT CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A MID WEEK LOW PRES SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
858 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY...WITH SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUIET THE WEATHER DOWN THIS WEEKEND...BUT MAINTAIN MAINLY CLOUDY
AND CRISP CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH
RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...THAT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. HENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
NAM AND GFS MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER RESTRICTED
TO LESS THAN 7 KFT AGL...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER WV-MD
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED A CONTINUED SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
LOWS TONIGHT NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
EVENTUAL WEAK WAA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL BE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPS AT 850MB
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS SAT.
ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAA. THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND INVERSIONS ARE VERY LOW. THIS WOULD
MEAN A DRY DAY BUT MORE CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...EAST OF KZZV.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE NEXT CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A MID WEEK LOW PRES SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
UPDATE TO ZFP WITH NO UPDATE TO WRKAFP. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WAS
OVER S SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WATER
VAPOR AND RADAR ALSO SHOWED A WAVE ROTATING TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA FROM N CENTRAL MT WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LATEST
WRF AND RAP MODELS KEPT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 850-700 MB MOISTURE AND 100-200 J/KG CAPE. THUS HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERED OFF THE POPS FROM W TO E THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECTED MIXING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES UNTIL
AROUND DAY 7. THE GENERAL WEATHER SET UP FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK IS A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST AND DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE THAT TRACKS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY PRODUCING COOLER TEMPS...BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SEASONABLY MILD. 500MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO LOWER AROUND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST AND
DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THOUGH AS WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE PROGGS SHOW COLDER AIR AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTER
SOLUTION. WHILE I EXPECT TO SEE THE TIMING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODEL CYCLES AS THIS IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...IT DOES SEEM THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO SOMETHING. HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER
POPS FOR DAYS 7 AND 8 AT THIS TIME. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THIS EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LOCALIZED TO
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 033/057 042/058 044/064 046/059 041/058 039/055
2/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 11/B 00/B 22/W
LVM 054 030/057 037/058 044/063 043/062 038/060 037/053
1/E 11/B 21/N 01/N 12/W 01/B 24/W
HDN 060 029/059 037/060 039/066 043/058 037/060 036/058
2/W 11/B 02/W 10/B 12/W 11/B 11/B
MLS 053 029/053 036/055 035/061 040/054 035/054 035/052
3/W 21/B 02/W 10/B 11/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 057 029/057 033/057 037/061 042/056 037/059 036/054
2/W 21/B 02/W 10/B 00/B 11/B 10/B
BHK 053 028/052 032/053 031/055 037/052 032/052 032/047
3/W 21/B 02/W 11/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
SHR 057 030/057 035/057 037/061 040/060 037/061 035/060
1/B 11/B 01/B 00/B 01/U 00/B 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1014 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG-WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVES...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER OVER
NEVADA...ARE ALSO NOTED. ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A RESULT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
NEVADA...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA.
THIS SATURATION HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE
200-500FT AGL RANGE. MODEST POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EAST OF THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING PROMOTE VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S. FOG IS
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THAT BEING SAID...FOG
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE VISIBILITY IMPROVING
INTO THE 5-10SM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. CIRRUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED BY SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST THIS
MORNING BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THIS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE SKY COVER AND PERHAPS QUICK SHOTS AT VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING UP.
WE START TODAY OFF WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PLENTY OF CIRRUS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SKY COVER HERE
AND THERE. ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOWING UP WITHIN LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA.
EARLIER...ORD WAS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UP TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE...WITH
AN EXCEPTION HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN TRANSITION FOR US TODAY AS A RIDGE SLIPS TO
THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO OUR AREA. I HAVE
DECREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE INCREASED SKY COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WILL ALLOW A GENERAL CLEARING OF HIGH LEVEL SKY
CLOUDINESS.
THEN WE GET INTO A SCENARIO OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A FOCUS OF ENERGY FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. ALSO...LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WITH THESE THINGS
IN MIND...THE MOST I WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IS SPRINKLES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CWA AS THESE WAVES
MOVE BY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KANSAS WILL ALLOW FOR EAST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
818 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
ONCE AGAIN...QUITE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
AROUND FREEZING...AND JUST AS MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 35 DEGREES. ONE
OBSERVATION FROM SILER CITY NOTED 28 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE RURAL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE PRIMARILY OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
85KT 500MB JET...AND THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU
SURFACE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A VERY MODEST
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO NEAR THE -10C LEVEL ON ITS BUFR SOUNDINGS
PARTICULARLY TOWARD KRDU AND AREAS NORTH. THE LATEST HRRR WRF SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ECHOES TOWARD THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE GFS ACTUALLY FORECASTS THE BEST
COMBINATION OF HIGHER 700MB MOISTURE AND 850MB MOISTURE BETWEEN
ABOUT 15Z AND 18Z. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
THE SURFACE FRONT...THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY FROM KTDF TO
KIXA OR SO LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART. FOLLOWING
THAT...THERE LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM NEAR 20
MPH...POSSIBLY TO 25 MPH AS THE 925MB WINDS WILL BE IN THAT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PLAN TO FORECAST HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE...55 TO 60 NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH...WARMEST
IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER TONIGHT THAN MANY OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NAM AND
GFS AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB...AND SLIGHTLY GREATER WINDS
NEAR THE INVERSION WHICH COULD PROMPT JUST A TOUCH BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING. UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH A FEW MID- OR
MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED WEST
LATE...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FROST
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN SHELTERED AND RURAL AREAS. COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES AND WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO COORDINATE ANY
HEADLINES AND THE STATUS OF FROST AND FREEZE ISSUANCES IN TIME FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY...AS K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE AND WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-
AND MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE GENERALLY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN MOST
OF THE PARAMETERS SAVE THE MOISTURE. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SUPPORT FOR LIFT IN PRESSURE LEVEL OR ISENTROPIC FIELDS...AND THE
GFS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS...DOES NOT PROVIDE FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM
HAS MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING 850MB THETA-E...
AND INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
AN INCH...COMPARED TO THE 0.75 INCH AVERAGE OF THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK AS WELL...BUT IT
IS HARD TO IGNORE THE VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE NAM...AS
WELL AS THE LIGHT QPF FORECAST BY THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST
SREF. AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF
U.S. 1 AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF FOR NOW UNDER A TENTH-INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...EXCEPT FLIRTING WITH THE LOWER 30S IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL WEAKEN WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING
FROM AR TO GA. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO SC
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS MORE QPF OVER CENTRAL NC
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-FRONTAL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS RATHER WEAK AND BRIEF...SO PREFER TO KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
NORTH....MORE LIKE THE ECMWF/NAM. TEMPS ARE ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN
SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE PRECIP...AND
THIS IS MANIFEST IN A WIDE RANGE IN THE SREF MEMBERS. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH TO UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LACK OF PRECIP AND POTENTIAL
FOR BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD CAUSE TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO BE
HIGHER. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR NOW...WITH
57-67 NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LARGE 1025MB+ HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER
SC/GA. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DIGGING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LEAD TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SC COAST TUESDAY THAT DEEPENS TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A NOR`EASTER AS
YET ANOTHER PIECE OF POLAR ENERGY LINKS UP WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WOULD
TRACK. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...MOVING AWAY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VIRGA PARTICULARLY TOWARD
THE VIRGINIA BORDER. AFTER THE CLOUDS DEPART...THERE SHOULD BE
PERIODS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 20KT UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING SUBSIDES LATE IN THE DAY.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT
CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY OF AVIATION CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. THE POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
ONCE AGAIN...QUITE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
AROUND FREEZING...AND JUST AS MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 35 DEGREES. ONE
OBSERVATION FROM SILER CITY NOTED 28 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE RURAL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE PRIMARILY OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
85KT 500MB JET...AND THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU
SURFACE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A VERY MODEST
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO NEAR THE -10C LEVEL ON ITS BUFR SOUNDINGS
PARTICULARLY TOWARD KRDU AND AREAS NORTH. THE LATEST HRRR WRF SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ECHOES TOWARD THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE GFS ACTUALLY FORECASTS THE BEST
COMBINATION OF HIGHER 700MB MOISTURE AND 850MB MOISTURE BETWEEN
ABOUT 15Z AND 18Z. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
THE SURFACE FRONT...THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY FROM KTDF TO
KIXA OR SO LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART. FOLLOWING
THAT...THERE LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM NEAR 20
MPH...POSSIBLY TO 25 MPH AS THE 925MB WINDS WILL BE IN THAT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PLAN TO FORECAST HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE...55 TO 60 NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH...WARMEST
IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER TONIGHT THAN MANY OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NAM AND
GFS AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB...AND SLIGHTLY GREATER WINDS
NEAR THE INVERSION WHICH COULD PROMPT JUST A TOUCH BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING. UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH A FEW MID- OR
MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED WEST
LATE...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FROST
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN SHELTERED AND RURAL AREAS. COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES AND WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO COORDINATE ANY
HEADLINES AND THE STATUS OF FROST AND FREEZE ISSUANCES IN TIME FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY...AS K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE AND WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-
AND MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE GENERALLY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN MOST
OF THE PARAMETERS SAVE THE MOISTURE. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SUPPORT FOR LIFT IN PRESSURE LEVEL OR ISENTROPIC FIELDS...AND THE
GFS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS...DOES NOT PROVIDE FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM
HAS MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING 850MB THETA-E...
AND INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
AN INCH...COMPARED TO THE 0.75 INCH AVERAGE OF THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK AS WELL...BUT IT
IS HARD TO IGNORE THE VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE NAM...AS
WELL AS THE LIGHT QPF FORECAST BY THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST
SREF. AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE WEST...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF
U.S. 1 AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF FOR NOW UNDER A TENTH-INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...EXCEPT FLIRTING WITH THE LOWER 30S IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL WEAKEN WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING
FROM AR TO GA. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO SC
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS MORE QPF OVER CENTRAL NC
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-FRONTAL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS RATHER WEAK AND BRIEF...SO PREFER TO KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
NORTH....MORE LIKE THE ECMWF/NAM. TEMPS ARE ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN
SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE PRECIP...AND
THIS IS MANIFEST IN A WIDE RANGE IN THE SREF MEMBERS. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH TO UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LACK OF PRECIP AND POTENTIAL
FOR BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD CAUSE TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO BE
HIGHER. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR NOW...WITH
57-67 NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LARGE 1025MB+ HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER
SC/GA. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DIGGING ALL THE WAY
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LEAD TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SC COAST TUESDAY THAT DEEPENS TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A NOR`EASTER AS
YET ANOTHER PIECE OF POLAR ENERGY LINKS UP WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE WAVERED A BIT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WOULD
TRACK. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...MOVING AWAY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VIRGA PARTICULARLY TOWARD
THE VIRGINIA BORDER. AFTER THE CLOUDS DEPART...THERE SHOULD BE
PERIODS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 20KT UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING SUBSIDES LATE IN THE DAY.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT
CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY OF AVIATION CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. THE POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
024>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS/DJF/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
508 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CHADRON REMAINS DOWN IN VLIFR FOG/STRATUS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
TO BREAK UP THE FOG AROUND THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
MONTANA WITH MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR CASPER AND
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. KCDR
HAS REPORTED SOME FOG OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EXPERIENCING WEAK
NORTHEAST FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES LIFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY
THROUGH 15Z...SO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER THE FROPA AND WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 700MB TEMPS
AT -1C (DOWN FROM 5C THIS PAST AFTN). PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 30 KTS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LLVL AND
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS
APPROACH 40 KTS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTN SO
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH 700MB TEMPS STAYING BETWEEN
0C AND -3C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE SLIM TO NONE WITH
THE BEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LARGELY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PRETTY QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING A
BACKDOOR FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY...BUT THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD POSE PROBLEMS WITH
TEMPERATURES IF IT STALLS OUT OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA. THERE IS LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IF THE FRONT DOES STALL...WE
COULD BE TOO HIGH ON OUR TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAKES A GOOD PUSH
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
THE REGION. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. LARGE AND DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF SANDY IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER LONGWAVE EAST COAST
TROUGH BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH
HAS DE-AMPLIFIED ENOUGH FOR OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NO LACK
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
SHOWS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A VERY LOW PW VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.65" WAS SAMPLED...WHICH IS ONLY
ABOUT 60% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE DRY COLUMN IS ALLOWING
JUST ABOUT 100% OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE/INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA AND WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LOWER
LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY COLUMN TO RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MOST LOCATION AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND URBAN
SETTINGS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S...HOWEVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BRIEFLY DIP IN TO UPPER 40S
TOWARD SUNRISE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN
CHANCES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW A DECENT DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WITH A DEVELOPING LIGHT AFTERNOON FLOW OFF THE NOW RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH NO MORE
40S EXPECTED. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD SEE LATE NIGHT READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK IMPULSE
ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING DOWN TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. COLUMN
MOISTURE AND BEST LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO HOLD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH OF I-4 AS THE IMPULSE
APPROACHES...BUT OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY IN
THE FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS UP TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS/SUMTER COUNTY AS THE FRONT SAGS JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND KEEP ANY
ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
UPDATE TO MONDAY/TUESDAY...MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE NEAR I-10 INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DURING
MONDAY...GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ENERGY ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORM SOUTH AND EAST OF TAMPA BAY AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 30% FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...AROUND TAMPA BAY AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD UP THE NATURE COAST...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING
BETTER AND BETTER. HAVE RAISED POP TO AROUND 50% FOR THESE ZONES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...
EVEN THESE NUMBERS MAY BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.
&&
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF MEXICO IS BOUNDED BY A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH THAT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT STRETCHES FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. AS
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AFTER THAT
FRONT CLEARS...A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND IT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND A SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF WITH DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR TAKING
HOLD OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN THINGS COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS EXITED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO RIDGES TOWARD
FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE SUNDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. A COMBINATION OF LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES OVER 35 ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR LEE AND INLAND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF POLK COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS ZONE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 60 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 57 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 48 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 65 80 64 78 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR HERNANDO-
LEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
AVIATION...DAVIS
LONG TERM...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDS 2500-3000 FT AGL
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER/IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM NNW TO NE AT ORD/MDW NOW
BECOMING FIRMLY NORTHEAST...WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING
OR ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH PER KLOT/TORD RADARS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE 030-040 DEG WINDS NEAR 10 KTS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH VFR
SCT CU AND HIGH BKN/OVC HIGH CIRRUS.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT
MIDDAY WITH A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TERMINALS EAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTHERLY...THOUGH A SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST 020-040 DEG HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND A PSEUDO-LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHIFT MAY
OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER THAN MORNING FORECASTS INDICATED...WITH
RECENT ORD/MDW 1-MINUTE ASOS DATA SHOWING WINDS VARYING 340-030
DEG OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LAST COUPLE OF HOURLY RUNS OF RAP
MODEL ALSO SUPPORT AN EARLIER SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS
ANTICIPATE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO LOCK IN DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU AT THE 2500-3000 FT AGL
LEVEL. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST...SOME OF THIS WILL
ATTEMPT OT PUSH INLAND INTO CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. RAP/NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE AND TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATOCU CEILINGS IN THE HIGH-MVFR RANGE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND LINGER THOUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WHILE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES OCCURRING WITH CURRENT LAKE-INDUCED
CLOUD COVER INTO INDIANA SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING. THEREFORE HAVE NOT
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN TAFS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT/BELOW 3000 FT LATER
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPII VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART TO A LONG
FETCH DOWN THE LAKE WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND CONVERGENCE NOTED
ON OBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SHIFTS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND A LOWERING OF EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
STIFLE THE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE HAVE SEEN ALL DAY...WITH ONLY
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES INDICATE SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR THE SHORES TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA AS OF YET DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARMING TRENDS. SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES...FORMING ON THE
FRINGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
MORE CLOUDY. IT DOES APPEAR THE EXTENT OF THE WAA IS WEAKER
TONIGHT AND MORE DEFINED FURTHER SOUTH...WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS TROUGH/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRYING TO INCH ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL FEATURES
TRAVERSING THE REGION...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDS 2500-3000 FT AGL
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM NNW TO NE AT ORD/MDW NOW
BECOMING FIRMLY NORTHEAST...WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING
OR ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH PER KLOT/TORD RADARS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE 030-040 DEG WINDS NEAR 10 KTS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH VFR
SCT CU AND HIGH BKN/OVC HIGH CIRRUS.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT
MIDDAY WITH A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TERMINALS EAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTHERLY...THOUGH A SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST 020-040 DEG HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND A PSEUDO-LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHIFT MAY
OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER THAN MORNING FORECASTS INDICATED...WITH
RECENT ORD/MDW 1-MINUTE ASOS DATA SHOWING WINDS VARYING 340-030
DEG OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LAST COUPLE OF HOURLY RUNS OF RAP
MODEL ALSO SUPPORT AN EARLIER SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS
ANTICIPATE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO LOCK IN DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU AT THE 2500-3000 FT AGL
LEVEL. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST...SOME OF THIS WILL
ATTEMPT OT PUSH INLAND INTO CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. RAP/NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE AND TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATOCU CEILINGS IN THE HIGH-MVFR RANGE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND LINGER THOUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WHILE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES OCCURRING WITH CURRENT LAKE-INDUCED
CLOUD COVER INTO INDIANA SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING. THEREFORE HAVE NOT
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN TAFS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT/BELOW 3000 FT LATER
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPII VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH FLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THAT A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
WINDS UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT CATEGORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED
COLD AIR...NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL RESULT IN WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED. BASED ON THIS SETUP HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WAVES
IN THE NEARSHORE SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
COME DOWN.
GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THAT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE LAKE MAY TURN MORE EASTERLY. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS THE
WAVES MAY REMAIN CHOPPY OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO HARBOR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND TURN EAST THEN SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN
INCREASING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES TO STEADILY BUILD AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1213 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 955 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
GOING FORECAST LARGELY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS NEEDED THIS MORNING. THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH LATEST NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING THESE CLOUDS THICKENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO GET
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE CWA...AND MAY
GET A TAD HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1213 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO PREVIOUS TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY LOWER
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 6000 FEET
LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF
THIS LOW TRACK WILL MAKE A CLOSE PASS AT KDEC/KSPI DURING ABOUT
THE 10-15Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH MENTION AT
THESE SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE AT KCMI...BUT
DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE SOUNDINGS MAKE IT MORE UNCERTAIN AND THUS
WILL LEAVE RAIN MENTION OUT OF THE KCMI TAF FOR NOW.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE TEMPS AND WILL USE A BLEND. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTHERN MO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S OVER CENTRAL
IL WITH GALESBURG DOWN TO 31F...AND LOW TO MID 40S IN SE IL.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S CENTRAL IL AND MID
30S SE IL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM 1031 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MANITOBA AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING
SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS IA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES IN EASTERN IL.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERALL TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. COOLER HIGHS TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER 50S
CENTRAL IL AND MID 50S IN SE IL.
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CO TO WEAKEN TO 1013 MB AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SW OF IL TO SPREAD A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO SE
IL SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER IN FAR SW/SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF IL
TO KEEP NORTHERN AREAS DRIER ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS NW OF THE IL RIVER WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INCLUDING IL/IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
KEEPING IT DRY.
HAVE A JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR SW AREAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SE ACROSS SW MO AND AR WHERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO OUR
SW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH COOL HIGHS MONDAY
AROUND 50F.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IL TUE. NOTICED THE ECMWF MODEL DOES
BRING LIGHT QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND GFS KEEPS QPF NNE OF CENTRAL IL SO WILL
STAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LESS THAN 15%. IL IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DURING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MS VALLEY DURING 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND. ECMWF (ECE) IS 10-15F WARMER THAN GFS (MEX)
BY NEXT FRI. STAYED CLOSE TO ALLBEND TEMPS DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU AND LOW
TO MID 60S FRI.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXPECTED TODAY AS NUMEROUS
VARIABLES HAVING A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS REGION. TO
THE NORTH...THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS AIDED BY PERSISTENT AREA OF
ASCENT ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/JET STREAK HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES BACK...WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH WARMING MUCH FASTER
(ASIDE FROM FEW LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY FOG). WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS CAA WILL ALSO
TEMPER HIGHS SOMEWHAT...WITH TEMPS STABILIZING OR FALLING SLIGHTLY
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HAVE WARMED FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES IN AREA
WITH LESS CLOUDS...BUT HAVE MAX TEMPS PEAK EARLIER AND THEN FALL A
BIT SOONER THAN CLIMO SUGGESTS. WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPS AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 18 PERCENT. WITH MARGINAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED...BUT WITH COOLER/MORE
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR WARNING AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
MCK AND GLD. A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLIER
TODAY BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE TAG PERIOD. A HIGH
LEVEL BROKEN DECK WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A MID
LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SOME SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...SUCH AS
THE SAME INDICATING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE AND THE LATEST NAM MOS SHOWING MVFR VIS...BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE CURRENT TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM/JJM
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXPECTED TODAY AS NUMEROUS
VARIABLES HAVING A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS REGION. TO
THE NORTH...THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS AIDED BY PERSISTENT AREA OF
ASCENT ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/JET STREAK HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES BACK...WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH WARMING MUCH FASTER
(ASIDE FROM FEW LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY FOG). WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS CAA WILL ALSO
TEMPER HIGHS SOMEWHAT...WITH TEMPS STABILIZING OR FALLING SLIGHTLY
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HAVE WARMED FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES IN AREA
WITH LESS CLOUDS...BUT HAVE MAX TEMPS PEAK EARLIER AND THEN FALL A
BIT SOONER THAN CLIMO SUGGESTS. WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPS AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 18 PERCENT. WITH MARGINAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED...BUT WITH COOLER/MORE
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR WARNING AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA THEN TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
SPLITTING IN TWO WITH THE STRONGER PORTION MOVING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DID FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS INITIALIZED
FINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCE ON THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE
NAM...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING BETTER WITH THAT AND OVERALL. THE
RUC AND NAM WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE WIND AND FEATURES THE BEST.
MODELS WERE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE
CANADIAN...SREF...NAM...AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT IS BRINGING IN A LITTLE FOG INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT
AREA ARE ALREADY LOW AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR EAST OF MY
AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS. BY 18Z THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
...WITH BREEZY WINDS...WITH STEADY OR FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT. THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND ALSO
COULD BE RATHER THICK. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...BIAS ADJUSTMENTS AND BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
JET WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE
BY 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. SO
WOULD EXPECT PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT
TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND WIND FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK THAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PULLS AWAY. ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENTS
SUPPORT NWP AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES
FOR THE MAXES.
WEAKER JET MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT IN THE EAST WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE WEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE APPROACHING IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PLAN VIEW RH AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A RATHER THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND MIXING. IF THERE WERE MORE
SUN...I WOULD EXPECT MORE WIND. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE. HOWEVER
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL KEEP MAXES COOL AND BELOW THE NWP.
RATHER STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BRUNT OF THAT JET WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM NEAR 650 MB
AND UP. WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THIS IS TOO LOW ON
THE END OF PROBABILITY TO INSERT. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MINS WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THUS LEADING TO
A REDUCED CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
AT KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR
SUNSET THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT KMCK...LIGHT WINDS
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY A LITTLE LATER AT KMCK. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BECOME BREEZY. AS STATED ABOVE RUC HAS THE
DEWPOINTS BEST EARLY WITH BCALLBLEND DOING WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM
WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE DEWPOINTS GO UP BEFORE THE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE KICK IN. WIND CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE REACH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP THE RHS ABOVE THE NEEDED CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF CLEARING HAS FILLED IN ACROSS REGION WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW TO REGION. ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AND POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR AND SAT PIX. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH
RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
TONIGHT...THAT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD UNSTABLE
AIR. HENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
NAM AND GFS MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER RESTRICTED
TO LESS THAN 7 KFT AGL...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER WV-MD
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED A CONTINUED SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
LOWS TONIGHT NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
EVENTUAL WEAK WAA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL BE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPS AT 850MB
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS SAT.
ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAA. THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND INVERSIONS ARE VERY LOW. THIS WOULD
MEAN A DRY DAY BUT MORE CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...EAST OF KZZV.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE NEXT CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A MID WEEK LOW PRES SYSTEM.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
532 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. THE ONLY POINT OF INTEREST IS THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF. A NARROW LINGERING MVFR CEILING JUST
SHY OF 2K IS IN THE KEARNEY AREA...AND MAY SLIP INTO KGRI EARLY
THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS TO GET A FEEL FOR JUST
HOW IT IS MOVING. FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO PERIOD OF A BRIEF
CEILING EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA. THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THIN BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ARE ALSO
NOTED...WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. THIS SATURATION HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000FT AGL PERSIST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DPVA AND MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS PRESENTING LITTLE IF ANY
OMEGA TO OUR AREA ONCE IT NEARS THE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD
DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. ALSO...THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BEING
USHERED INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE ALSO DISSIPATES. GIVEN AL THIS...A
CLEARING TREND SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT STRATUS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA 06Z ONWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND THE INFLUX OF A COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFILTRATES THE
REGION...WILL PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
~30-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. MET/NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND OPTED TO PLAY CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...WHICH PRESENTS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-20S TO
THE MID-30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS ALLOWING FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SATURDAY TEMPERATURE-RISES ON THE ORDER OF
25-30 DEGREES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH PRESENTS SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST DAYS WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES IT SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA...AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS IOWA AND
NEBRASKA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. WE CAME VERY CLOSE TO
PULLING THE SPRINKLES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE.
SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE IN THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SFC WIND WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF MORE SPRINKLES. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB MAY FALL TO
AROUND 0C ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BE A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ARE ALSO
NOTED...WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. THIS SATURATION HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000FT AGL PERSIST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DPVA AND MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS PRESENTING LITTLE IF ANY
OMEGA TO OUR AREA ONCE IT NEARS THE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD
DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. ALSO...THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BEING
USHERED INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE ALSO DISSIPATES. GIVEN AL THIS...A
CLEARING TREND SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT STRATUS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE CWA 06Z ONWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND THE INFLUX OF A COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFILTRATES THE
REGION...WILL PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
~30-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP-OFFS FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. MET/NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND OPTED TO PLAY CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...WHICH PRESENTS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-20S TO
THE MID-30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS ALLOWING FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SATURDAY TEMPERATURE-RISES ON THE ORDER OF
25-30 DEGREES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH PRESENTS SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST DAYS WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES IT SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA...AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS IOWA AND
NEBRASKA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. WE CAME VERY CLOSE TO
PULLING THE SPRINKLES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE.
SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE IN THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SFC WIND WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF MORE SPRINKLES. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB MAY FALL TO
AROUND 0C ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BE A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1244 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.UPDATE...MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FARTHER
NORTHWEST. ALSO...INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS A
TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND
DECREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A TOUCH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ARE NOW FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN-HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S STILL
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
UPDATE... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG-WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER OVER NEVADA...ARE
ALSO NOTED. ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
NEVADA...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA.
THIS SATURATION HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE
200-500FT AGL RANGE. MODEST POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EAST OF THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING PROMOTE VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S. FOG IS
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THAT BEING SAID...FOG
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE VISIBILITY IMPROVING
INTO THE 5-10SM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE SKY COVER AND PERHAPS QUICK SHOTS AT VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING UP.
WE START TODAY OFF WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PLENTY OF CIRRUS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SKY COVER HERE
AND THERE. ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOWING UP WITHIN
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA.
EARLIER...ORD WAS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UP TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES ON THE NEBRASKA
SIDE...WITH AN EXCEPTION HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN TRANSITION FOR US TODAY AS A RIDGE SLIPS TO
THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO OUR AREA. I HAVE
DECREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE INCREASED SKY COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WILL ALLOW A GENERAL CLEARING OF HIGH LEVEL SKY
CLOUDINESS.
THEN WE GET INTO A SCENARIO OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A FOCUS OF ENERGY FARTHER NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND...THE MOST I WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IS SPRINKLES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CWA AS THESE
WAVES MOVE BY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KANSAS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1244 PM UPDATE/AVIATION/1014 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
UPDATE... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG-WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TWO MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER OVER NEVADA...ARE
ALSO NOTED. ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
WYOMING...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS A
RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING
DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
NEVADA...WITH THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED INFILTRATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RESULT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IS PROMOTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES...PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA.
THIS SATURATION HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE
200-500FT AGL RANGE. MODEST POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EAST OF THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING PROMOTE VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S. FOG IS
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THAT BEING SAID...FOG
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE VISIBILITY IMPROVING
INTO THE 5-10SM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE SKY COVER AND PERHAPS QUICK SHOTS AT VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING UP.
WE START TODAY OFF WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PLENTY OF CIRRUS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SKY COVER HERE
AND THERE. ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOWING UP WITHIN
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA.
EARLIER...ORD WAS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UP TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES ON THE NEBRASKA
SIDE...WITH AN EXCEPTION HERE OR THERE A BIT BELOW. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN TRANSITION FOR US TODAY AS A RIDGE SLIPS TO
THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO OUR AREA. I HAVE
DECREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE INCREASED SKY COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WILL ALLOW A GENERAL CLEARING OF HIGH LEVEL SKY
CLOUDINESS.
THEN WE GET INTO A SCENARIO OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A FOCUS OF ENERGY FARTHER NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND...THE MOST I WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IS SPRINKLES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CWA AS THESE
WAVES MOVE BY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KANSAS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
247 PM PDT Fri Nov 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A drying and warming trend will slowly return to much of the
Columbia Basin courtesy of a strengthening ridge of high pressure.
Weak systems brushing the ridge will bring some light rain at
times to the Cascades and mountains near the Canadian border.
Much cooler and unsettled weather will likely arrive by the end of
the week. Temperatures will likely be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow...Satellite and radar data from this
afternoon indicated an occluded front spreading rain into
southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. Models agree that this
front will stretch and weaken as it moves east of the Cascades
tonight with chances for measurable rain decreasing quickly east
of the Cascades. However models do show some differences as to how
quickly this rain will taper off. The NAM shows 850mb winds
backing to the south-southeast with rain spreading into Wenatchee
early this evening with a quarter inch of rain...while GFS/ECMWF
only have .02-.04 inches for Wenatchee. With HRRR also supporting
the GFS/ECMWF forecast was weighted strongly towards the GFS/ECMWF
solution. These solutions supports around a tenth of an inch of
rain for the East Slopes of the Cascades tonight, a few
hundredths for the Wenatchee area, Okanogan Valley, and northern
mountains, with sprinkles elsewhere.
The next wave noted on water vapor satellite near 40N/150W as of 2
PM today will move rapidly east with a moist zonal flow across
the area on Saturday. Most of the energy from this wave will move
north across southern British Columbia with the westerly flow
Saturday rain and high mountain snow along the Cascade
crest...with a secondary max in precipitation chances over the
mountains of NE Washington and North Idaho. Any rain that falls on
Saturday away from the Cascade crest will be light with amounts
less than a tenth of an inch. JW
Saturday night through Monday...Model guidance in fairly good
agreement that a dirty ridge axis will remain fixed over the
Inland NW through most of this period. The ridge promises to keep
plenty of clouds and moisture locked over the region...however
precipitation chances will become lower with time from south to
north as the pattern buckles slightly on Sunday and Monday with a
very strong upper level low shifting into the Gulf of Alaska. The
models have been having difficulties timing the drying trend. The
12z NAM suggested the warm front would deliver widespread rain to
most of the forecast area on Sunday and this notion had some
support from the SREF. Now the NAM has backed off on that scenario
and joined other drier models which kept the bulk of the
precipitation focused near the north Cascade Crest and over
locations just south of the Canadian border through Sunday night.
Precipitation amounts from the front will be light...much less
than a tenth of an inch in most cases. Meanwhile...snow levels
will remain higher than all but the highest mountain peaks. ..so
winter travel conditions are not expected. By Monday...the warm
front will move into BC...while the trailing cold front will push
into the north Cascades and NE Washington by late in the day. The
front is expected to weaken significantly as another low deepens
over the Gulf of Alaska. Again most of the precipitation from this
front should be focused near the north Cascades and northern WA/ID
mountains. Precipitation amounts will still be light.
As for temperatures...the warm front will continue to deliver
unseasonably mild temperatures with daytime highs surging well
into the 50s to lower 60s...with nighttime lows holding well above
freezing. Monday`s cold front could take a few degrees off the
high temperatures...however the weaker the front, the less likely
that cooling will occur. Fog could become Sunday night/Monday
south of highway 2 as the mid/upper clouds begin to thin. If fog
does become widespread and thick it would have a dramatic impact
on the temperatures...and we would fall well short of the forecast
high temperatures on Monday. The mid 50s to mid 60s in the
forecast could easily turn out being about 10 degrees too warm. fx
Monday night through Friday...Interval starts out with very low
amplitude ridge that is easily over-topped with moisture rich
disturbances that flattens out and becomes more zonal on Tuesday
and by Wednesday a larger area of low pressure drops down from the
Gulf of Alaska in a northwest to southeast trajectory and pushes
the moisture rich jet stream to the south and east into and
through the weekend. The above scenario should result in a
generally cloudy forecast with a rain shadow keeping some of the
lowlands in the lee of the Cascade crest dry Monday night into
Wednesday evening with the periphery or mountain areas up north and
in Northern Idaho holding onto varying pop for mostly rain as snow
levels remain well above what would be considered lodge level
(well above 3800-4800 ft MSL). The moisture rich baroclinic band
oriented alongside the jet stream sags southeast through the area
but the flow now appears in the models as having too much of a
southwest orientation...and as such the lee side rain-shadow will
work to inhibit precipitation processes for much of lowland
Eastern Washington while pops in north Idaho may continue to hold
a substantial increase and QPF amounts in the forecast may show an
increase as well. By either late Thursday or Friday the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass to the north of the jet stream
should be overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho with
weak southwest flow at lower levels thus a transition to further
decreased pops and qpf and precipitation depicted as a more
showery type with low snow levels (low wet bulb zero heights with
the conditionally unstable air-mass could allow for snow to reach
many valley locations but it would depend on time of day and
pavement temperatures as to how long it would linger on surfaces)
Temperatures near or slightly on the warm side of normal into
Wednesday still make sense considering the jet stream placement is
either north of the area or overhead and the cooling trend
afterword with the jet stream to the south and cooler
conditionally unstable air-mass overhead for later Thursday and
Friday. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of low clouds/fog across the Columbia Basin,
Wenatchee area, and valleys of NE WA/N Idaho will become focused
near the Cascades and north of the KMWH-KGEG corridor as the
afternoon progresses as increased low level south-southeast flow
advects in drier air from Southeast WA. Low clouds may persist
through the day at KEAT as the southeast flow keeps low level
moisture pooled in this area. The next weather system will weaken
considerably as it crosses the Cascades tonight...although
occasional -RA is possible at KEAT. Abundant mid and high clouds
should limit fog chances although areas of stratus are likely near
the Cascades and north of the Columbia Basin.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 55 44 56 45 59 / 10 20 20 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 41 54 43 56 44 58 / 10 30 30 20 10 10
Pullman 44 58 45 57 46 62 / 10 20 10 20 10 0
Lewiston 44 60 47 61 48 64 / 0 10 10 20 0 0
Colville 44 54 43 57 43 61 / 30 40 40 40 20 20
Sandpoint 42 52 44 54 41 58 / 10 50 60 50 20 20
Kellogg 38 47 42 50 43 55 / 0 30 30 30 10 20
Moses Lake 42 58 45 61 45 60 / 20 20 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 44 55 48 61 46 59 / 50 20 10 10 10 10
Omak 45 55 44 59 43 59 / 40 30 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1114 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE CWA AS OF 1630Z AND WERE
CURRENTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012/...
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CHADRON REMAINS DOWN IN VLIFR FOG/STRATUS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
TO BREAK UP THE FOG AROUND THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
MONTANA WITH MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR CASPER AND
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. KCDR
HAS REPORTED SOME FOG OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EXPERIENCING WEAK
NORTHEAST FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES LIFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY
THROUGH 15Z...SO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER THE FROPA AND WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 700MB TEMPS
AT -1C (DOWN FROM 5C THIS PAST AFTN). PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 30 KTS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA EXPERIENCES
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LLVL AND
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 700MB WINDS
APPROACH 40 KTS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTN SO
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH 700MB TEMPS STAYING BETWEEN
0C AND -3C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE SLIM TO NONE WITH
THE BEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LARGELY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PRETTY QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING A
BACKDOOR FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY...BUT THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD POSE PROBLEMS WITH
TEMPERATURES IF IT STALLS OUT OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA. THERE IS LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IF THE FRONT DOES STALL...WE
COULD BE TOO HIGH ON OUR TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAKES A GOOD PUSH
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
THE REGION. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB