Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/01/12


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1036 AM MDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK WITH CFWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE THIS TREND DEPICTED. SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS. && .AVIATION...OVERALL...CURRENT TAFS LOOKING ON TRACK...THOUGH WINDS HAVE REMAINED SOUTHERLY ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS. BOTH HRRR AND RUC INDICATE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL TREND TAF WINDS IN THIS DIRECTION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM MDT TUE OCT 30 2012/ SHORT TERM...MEAN FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BUILDING RIDGE OF DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE AIR SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF COLORADO THROUGH 12Z/ WEDNESDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND NOW SPREADING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LONG SWATH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS AND CIRRO-STRATUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PERIODS OF THICKER STATIONARY LENTICULAR CLOUDS WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH WIND TODAY ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LASTLY TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE YESTERDAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS 6-11 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND BUILD ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO NEXT OPEN WAVE MOVING INLAND OVER THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENT LOW POPS IN FORECAST LOOK FINE FOR NOW. THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA AT SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 12KTS. COULD SEE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS PERIODICALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING... WITH THE THICKER WAVE CLOUDS MOST LIKELY UP NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....ENTREKIN AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1032 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 CWA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY TO OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. MAIN IMPACTS TO OUR AREA TODAY AS A RESULT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTING THE FAR EAST TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 40-45 MPH...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEE 30-35 MPH. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS SHIELD FROM SANDY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS CLOSE TO EASTERN IL STATE BORDER...BUT LATEST MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SO HAVE TAKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE...SO AN UPDATE WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ECT && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH THE WINDS. TERMINALS ARE WEDGED BETWEEN REMNANTS OF SANDY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST... RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EASTERN SITES...CMI/BMI/DEC... SHOULD SEE SPEEDS A BIT STRONGER BETWEEN 30-35 KTS...WHILE PIA/SPI STAYS AROUND 25-27 KTS. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL DIE OFF. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY. THERE ARE SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS INDIANA WHICH MAY EDGE INTO CMI BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE A SCT LAYER AT 4 KFT. ECT && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS. EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG. CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG. HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1032 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1032 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 CWA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY TO OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. MAIN IMPACTS TO OUR AREA TODAY AS A RESULT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTING THE FAR EAST TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 40-45 MPH...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEE 30-35 MPH. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS SHIELD FROM SANDY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS CLOSE TO EASTERN IL STATE BORDER...BUT LATEST MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SO HAVE TAKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE...SO AN UPDATE WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ECT && .AVIATION... ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS STRONG WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAF FORECAST TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 38 KT FOR CMI AND AROUND 27 KT FOR PIA. THE KILX VWP AND EARLY DATA FROM OUR 12Z ILX SOUNDING ARE SHOWING A LACK OF LLWS. THE STRONGEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS ARE FARTHER OFF OF THE SURFACE...MORE TOWARD 5K FT. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AND ARE GUSTING...THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE LLWS FROM THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH CMI/BMI/DEC FROM THE EAST. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY APPROACH WITHIN 10-15 MILES TO THE EAST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. MID CLOUDS AT 3-4K FT MAY OVERSPREAD CMI/BMI AT TIMES TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH DECREASED MIXING...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST 10KT AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH CMI POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 15KT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SHIMON && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS. EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG. CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG. HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS. EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG. CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG. HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS STRONG WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAF FORECAST TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 38 KT FOR CMI AND AROUND 27 KT FOR PIA. THE KILX VWP AND EARLY DATA FROM OUR 12Z ILX SOUNDING ARE SHOWING A LACK OF LLWS. THE STRONGEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS ARE FARTHER OFF OF THE SURFACE...MORE TOWARD 5K FT. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AND ARE GUSTING...THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE LLWS FROM THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH CMI/BMI/DEC FROM THE EAST. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY APPROACH WITHIN 10-15 MILES TO THE EAST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. MID CLOUDS AT 3-4K FT MAY OVERSPREAD CMI/BMI AT TIMES TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH DECREASED MIXING...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST 10KT AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH CMI POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 15KT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SHIMON && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS. EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG. CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG. HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH WINDS...LLWS OVERNIGHT AND WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KBMI...KDEC AND KCMI. PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN ACRS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SANDY SLOWLY PUSHES WEST AND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. ALREADY SEEING LLWS CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45-50 KTS AT AROUND 2000 FEET OFF OF THE ILX VAD WIND PROFILE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THAT MIX TO THE SFC TOMORROW MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20-25KTS COMMON FROM BMI AND DEC EAST...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. FURTHER WEST...NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATER TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TOMORROW AFTN. AS FAR AS ANY CLOUDS...WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL (20000-25000 FEET) MOISTURE THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED CU MIXED IN DURING THE DAY. SMITH && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL AFFECT INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TAKE CHARGE OF OUR WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE BACK FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SANDY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 MAIN ISSUES WINDS AND POPS. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY TO ENTIRE AREA. BUFKIT FOR BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATED WE SHOULD MAKE IT ON GUSTS AS MECHANICAL MIXING COMBINES WITH A LITTLE HEATING TO PRODUCE AN ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE GETTING RIGHT NOW...MAV WINDS LOOK BETTER THAN THOSE FROM MET. HOWEVER RELUCTANT TO BUY ALL THE WAY INTO ONE MODEL PENDING 12Z ROABS SO WILL USE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CUT OFF LIKE A KNIFE AS SANDY WRAPS UP. MOS OFTEN SMOOTHS TOO MUCH WITH THESE VERY SHARP CUTOFFS. WHAT I DID WAS GO AT LEAST LIKELY WHERE NAM QPF WAS A HUNDREDTH OR MORE. THIS TAKES LIKELY AREA WEST OF ANY GUIDANCE...BUT ON OTHER HAND NAM WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL ABOUT TAKING QPF WEST. DUAL POL INDICATES RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN FROM EAST SO WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SNOW DURING MORNING. ANY SNOW SHOULD END AFTER SUN COMES UP. USED RUC QPF TO ESTIMATE HOW FAR WEST PRECIP WOULD COME DURING MORNING. TO EXTENT GUIDANCE DISAGREES ABOUT TEMPS...COOLER MAV LOOKS BEST CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 MODELS DO AGREE ABOUT WINDS SLOWING EARLY TONIGHT AND DROPPING ADVISORY AT 8 PM STILL LOOKS OK. MET REMAINS HIGHER THAN MAV AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS PENDING FURTHER GUIDANCE. WITH SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP STILL LIKELY...USED GFS QPF OF ONE HUNDREDTH INCH FOR LIKELY BOUNDARY. THIS STILL TOOK LIKELY FARTHER WEST THAN GUIDANCE...BUT GFS WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE ABOUT TAKING QPF WEST. SLIGHT WARMER MET TEMPS LOOKED BEST TONIGHT CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WIND. FARTHER OUT JUST TOOK MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE CONCENTRATING ON EARLIER PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EURO ARE DIFFERING IN REGARD TO SANDY/S REMNANTS. THE EURO IS SHOWING A SPLIT INTO 2 CUT-OFF LOWS...ONE OF WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH LINGERING WINDS AND RAIN. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS HINTING AT NO PRECIP THOUGH...AND HAVE NO DEFINITIVE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THAT FORECAST. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND HAS PRECIP IN CENTRAL INDIANA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS INDICATING SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A BLEND OF THE MODELS...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. TEMPS...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/09Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 UPDATE... NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH 45 TO 50 KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUSTS. LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY FURTHER WEST...WHICH APPEARS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL CUTOFF WILL BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE TOP OF MVFR AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL AFFECT INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TAKE CHARGE OF OUR WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE BACK FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SANDY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 MAIN ISSUES WINDS AND POPS. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY TO ENTIRE AREA. BUFKIT FOR BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATED WE SHOULD MAKE IT ON GUSTS AS MECHANICAL MIXING COMBINES WITH A LITTLE HEATING TO PRODUCE AN ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE GETTING RIGHT NOW...MAV WINDS LOOK BETTER THAN THOSE FROM MET. HOWEVER RELUCTANT TO BUY ALL THE WAY INTO ONE MODEL PENDING 12Z ROABS SO WILL USE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CUT OFF LIKE A KNIFE AS SANDY WRAPS UP. MOS OFTEN SMOOTHS TOO MUCH WITH THESE VERY SHARP CUTOFFS. WHAT I DID WAS GO AT LEAST LIKELY WHERE NAM QPF WAS A HUNDREDTH OR MORE. THIS TAKES LIKELY AREA WEST OF ANY GUIDANCE...BUT ON OTHER HAND NAM WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL ABOUT TAKING QPF WEST. DUAL POL INDICATES RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN FROM EAST SO WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SNOW DURING MORNING. ANY SNOW SHOULD END AFTER SUN COMES UP. USED RUC QPF TO ESTIMATE HOW FAR WEST PRECIP WOULD COME DURING MORNING. TO EXTENT GUIDANCE DISAGREES ABOUT TEMPS...COOLER MAV LOOKS BEST CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 MODELS DO AGREE ABOUT WINDS SLOWING EARLY TONIGHT AND DROPPING ADVISORY AT 8 PM STILL LOOKS OK. MET REMAINS HIGHER THAN MAV AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS PENDING FURTHER GUIDANCE. WITH SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP STILL LIKELY...USED GFS QPF OF ONE HUNDREDTH INCH FOR LIKELY BOUNDARY. THIS STILL TOOK LIKELY FARTHER WEST THAN GUIDANCE...BUT GFS WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE ABOUT TAKING QPF WEST. SLIGHT WARMER MET TEMPS LOOKED BEST TONIGHT CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WIND. FARTHER OUT JUST TOOK MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE CONCENTRATING ON EARLIER PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EURO ARE DIFFERING IN REGARD TO SANDY/S REMNANTS. THE EURO IS SHOWING A SPLIT INTO 2 CUT-OFF LOWS...ONE OF WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH LINGERING WINDS AND RAIN. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS HINTING AT NO PRECIP THOUGH...AND HAVE NO DEFINITIVE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THAT FORECAST. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND HAS PRECIP IN CENTRAL INDIANA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS INDICATING SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A BLEND OF THE MODELS...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. TEMPS...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH 45 TO 50 KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUSTS. LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY FURTHER WEST...WHICH APPEARS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL CUTOFF WILL BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE TOP OF MVFR AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND HEAD WEST TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREBY INCREASING WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING FURTHER WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 SANDY HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD INTO MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA AS OF 01Z. CLOUD SHIELD HAS COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LOWER AND THICKER CEILINGS NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 40S AS OF 01Z WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES. SANDY SPED ASHORE AROUND 22Z...A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. RAP AND HRRR ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THE 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND OP GFS APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING SUIT. ONE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WITH EXPANSION OF LIGHT PRECIP INTO EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT IS THE NOTICEABLE AXIS OF DRIER AIR PRESENT ALONG THE INDIANA-OHIO BORDER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. SUSPECT THIS MAY BE AN ENHANCEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STEADILY MOISTENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES ALL NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF THE DRIER AIR MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT TO FULLY MOISTEN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. ONCE IT DOES THOUGH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. HAVE EXPANDED POPS JUST A BIT TO THE WEST AND BUMPED THEM UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE...BUT SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN PERIODICALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. TWEAKED WIND GRIDS A BIT BUT OVERALL GRIDS LOOKED GOOD. STILL ANTICIPATING AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARRIVE. GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SANDY REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP IT GOING. MODEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST. NAM SHOWS THESE DROPPING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT GFS KEEPS STRONGER VALUES GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING AS IS THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST AS SANDY TRAVERSES WEST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH /AT MOST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR A STORM TOTAL/ SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST. AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SANDY MOVE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL PULL MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCES HANG AROUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM FORMERLY KNOWN AS SANDY TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND DRY WEATHER TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM TRIES TO INTRODUCE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT GFS/ECMWF DO NOT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK NEAR WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY FOR THE SAME REASON. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S CAN BE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON FINALLY ALLOWING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEGREE OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMUP TO CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. FINALLY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. REGIONAL OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH 45 TO 50 KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUSTS. LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY FURTHER WEST...WHICH APPEARS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL CUTOFF WILL BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE TOP OF MVFR AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-029>031- 036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-071-072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE BROAD REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY AND BRING A BREAK FROM THE CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN EVENING UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ORDER TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION TO RIDGES AND TO LIMIT MOST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ABOVE 2500 FT. THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REMNANTS OF POST- TROPICAL SANDY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEW YORK. SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 1000-500MB LAYER SATURATED. THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED FURTHER NORTHWARD IN EASTERN CANADA. A MOIST WESTERLY 850MB FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH SNOW MOSTLY ABOVE 2500 FT THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...DRIZZLE IS MIXING IN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL...BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH A MOIST...WESTERLY FLOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES PA/WV/MD. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SINCE THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHEN STRONGER AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS CROSS THE RIDGES...THEY WILL TAP BACK INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT MOSTLY ABOVE 2500 FT. TOTAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING DUE TO IMPACTS FROM RECENT HEAVY WET SNOW AND A LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE CLOSE TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. THURSDAY...SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ITS BROAD AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A FIFTH CONSECUTIVE CLOUDY AND WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPS AGAIN WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS AGAIN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF AND CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION GENERALLY CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STRONG NW FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND CAA WILL BRING LAKE ERIE INTO PLAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. HIGHEST POPS IN THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR PERSISTENCE AS COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS REGION. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AREA BETWEEN EXITING STORM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. MAINLY SUNNY BUT HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RIDGES TO UPPER 40S EASTERN OHIO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST EVOLUTION SEEMS TO BE DOMINATED MORE BY THE GOINGS ON IN THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THAN THE EASTERN HALF...FINALLY. SANDY AND HER REMNANTS WILL BE LONG GONE...HOWEVER RESIDENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNABATED. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF AFTER A BRIEF INTERLUDE WITH A SYSTEM OVERTOPPING IT AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO DICTATE THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...HELPING TO CARVE OUT A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUALLY RELOAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST. ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SEEM TO LOCKED ONTO THIS LONG WAVE PROGRESSION...EVEN WHILE QUIBBLING OVER THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS. IN A MEAN SENSE...THE RESULT OF THIS LONG WAVE PROGRESSION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE DETAILS WILL BE THE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE FORECAST OINTMENT. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL COME IN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A MUCH FASTER/OPEN SOLUTION THAN THE SLOWER/MORE CLOSED/DEEPER GFS AND CANADIAN. WHAT`S INTERESTING ABOUT THIS WAVE IS THAT WHILE THE CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MORE CLOSED...THE PREPONDERANCE OF GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS BASICALLY TRENDED TOWARD A GEFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH LESS WARMING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND A FAVORING OF A WEAKER SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SECOND SYSTEM OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO COME IN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH SPEED MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH...POPS WERE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES...HOWEVER MODEL RH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY LEAN...SO IT WOULD SEEM IT WOULD BE MORE A REINFORCEMENT OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MAKER. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE REAL IMPETUS OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WIND. GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF 850 MB FLOW RUNS UP TOWARD 30-45 KTS WITH SURFACE GRIDS FAVORING A RUN UP TOWARD 20 KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH POPS WERE NOT REALLY INCREASED ALL THE MUCH. FRIES && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR/LIFR STRATUS DOMINATES THE TERMINALS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE LAKES ALONG WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP TYPE HAS CONTINUED TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST SITES AND GIVEN THE PROFILES...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE. STRATUS MAY LOWER A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A BIT LIGHTER SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED...WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 2-4 SM RANGE IN SHOWERS. CEILING WILL IMPROVE A LITTLE THURSDAY WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING STRATUS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LINGERING STRATUS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS UNTIL BUILDING HIGH PRES IMPROVES CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ023- 041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM NEAR TERM...WOODRUM AVIATION...RSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE W. SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND A HI PRES RDG OVER MN IS CAUSING STRONG N WINDS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOLID GALES OVER LK SUP/MI AND SOME WIND ADVY GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE LK SHORES. THE 12Z GRB ROAB INDICATES N WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AS LO AS 2K FT AGL AND WITHIN THE SFC-H875 MIXED LYR. OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE MN RDG...WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER. THE TREND EARLY THIS AFTN HAS BEEN FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH SLOWLY FILLING SANDY REMNANTS IN PA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY TO THE W THRU THE DAY. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A STABLE TEMP PROFILE MAINLY BLO 0C...BUT THERE IS AN ELEVATED WARM LYR PRESENT ARND H85 WITH THE 12Z TEMP AT THAT LVL 2C. SO THE PCPN HAS BEEN A MIX...WITH MAINLY SN AND RA. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER ERN UPR MI HAVE ALSO REPORTED SLEET WITH THE WBLB BLO THE ELEVATED WARM LYR WELL BLO 0C. VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB ROAB EXPLAINS THE SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND THE LIMITED PCPN INTENSITY... BUT MOISTENING OFF LK SUP HAS LED TO PLENTY OF LO CLDS OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WINDS AND PCPN COVERAGE/TYPE PLUS POTENTIAL SN AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THRU WED. TNGT...THE REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNW AND OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z WED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH PRES FALLS WEAKENING THE MN RDG AS WELL THRU THE NGT...EXPECT WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. SO PLAN TO LET GOING WIND ADVYS EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. BUT AS UPR HGTS CONT TO FALL...DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W...WITH THE W EDGE REACHING NEAR THE HURON MTNS OR SO BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MSTR WL BE SPREADING TO THE W...LARGER SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION AT H7 ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SANDY/GENERAL DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY OVERALL. THE 12Z NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF...WITH AMOUNTS GREATER OVER THE E AND THE HURON MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT/OMEGA/SOME LK ENHANCED COMPONENT WL ENHANCE MOISTENING OF THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND OFFSET THE MID LVL DRYING. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP ON THE QPF FOR THE SCNTRL...WITH LTL PCPN FCST IN THIS AREA...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALSO MAINTAINING THE DRIER LLVLS. THERE SHOULD BE NO PCPN W OF A LINE FM BARAGA TO IMT OR SO. GOING POPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. PTYPE WL BE TRICKY WITH LACK OF LARGER SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MAINLY SN AS THE PTYPE...DZ MAY DOMINATE AT TIMES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE NEAR SFC LYR. SOME WARM AIR INTRUDING FM THE E WL ALSO MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LYR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. SO WL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SLEET IN THAT AREA. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MSTR EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY HOLDING ABV FRZG WITH LK SUP MODIFICATION OFFSETTING EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL BE NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. WED...LO PRES/REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT N INTO WRN QUEBEC AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CORRESPONDING DIMINISHING WINDS OVER UPR MI. THE DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE E HALF...BUT PERSISTENT LACK OF SGNFT UPR SUPPORT/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL CUT BACK ON PCPN AMNTS AWAY FM AREAS THAT PICK UP SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN SLOWLY BACKING FLOW N TO NNW. BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS...WEAKENING CYC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING PCPN AMNTS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 OUR SLOW MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE BY 00Z THURSDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW MOVES FROM W PA THIS AFTERNOON TO W NY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE N PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS W QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND E OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A MIXED BAG OF CHANGING PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS TEMPERATURES GO FROM BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT /PARTICULARLY OVER W AND CENTRAL COUNTIES/ INTO THE 40S MOST AFTERNOONS. THE RESULT OF THE LOW DRIFTING N FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE N-NW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. THE FIRST ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE REGION...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY PUSHING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WIN OUT FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR COMPRISED OF 850MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -7C WARMING TO A CWA AVERAGE -2C BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS HANDLE THE FCST PRETTY WELL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING IN FROM ND/MN. THE MORE WRAPPED UP 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY/. THE NEXT SFC LOW NEARING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NW /BETWEEN S SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR N MANITOBA/ AT 18Z MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND BECOME MORE W TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAN THE 30/12Z ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE A BIT CLOSER TO THE PERSONALLY AND HPC PREFERRED ECMWF. WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE WINDS FROM MONDAY ON IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS CURRENT TRENDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO MN AND AN INTENSE LOW OVER PA MOVING NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KSAW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE 30KTS AT KSAW INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 25KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH AT KIWD AND KCMX OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE FLOWING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BRING BKN CIG TO MVFR LEVELS AT CMX OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCT AND/OR VFR. MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW -SN TO DEVELOP FOR KSAW THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR...SO ONLY EXPECT -SHSN WITH MINIMAL VIS RESTRICTIONS AT THE START. COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE BY LATE EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS HAVE INDICATED VIS DOWN TO 2SM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR KSAW TONIGHT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 EXPECT SOLID N GALES TO 40-45 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY WED MORNING TO NO MORE THAN 30 KTS WED AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N INTO SE CANADA AND WEAKENS. WAVES AS HI AS 15-18 FT OVER THE SCENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ005>007. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014-085. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-251-264- 265-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TK MARINE...KC/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF HAS HELPED STEER HURRICANE SANDY WESTWARD ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WRN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ASSOC WITH THE UPR DIV OF JET MAX HAS EDGED INTO THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY HAVE REACHED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN EAST COAST STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE NORTH WINDS AOA 40 KT WITHIN MIXED LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THUS...PER COORDINATION WITH APX HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALGER...DELTA...LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 09Z TONIGHT FOR ALGER AND LUCE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER NORTH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FOR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES HAVE STARTED THE HEADLINE AT 12Z TUE. ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUE EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES AT WHICH TIME PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORM OVER WRN PA. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING FCST AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PCPN ASSOC WITH EAST COAST STORM STAYS EAST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z TUE. BOTH GFS AND NAM THEN INDICATE PCPN SPREADING SLOWLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS 850-800 FGEN FORCING INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPR DIVERGENCE OF STRONG UPR JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO WRN QUEBEC. BOTH GFS AND PARTICULARLY NAM SNDGS OVER ERN UPR MI WANT TO HOLD ONTO COLD LAYER FROM SFC TO NEAR 3KFT THRU TUESDAY DESPITE WAA OCCURRING AT 850 MB ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THERE WON`T BE SOME MODERATION/WARMING OF NEAR SFC LYR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY GIVEN COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND NRLY ONSHORE FLOW OFF RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR (MID TO UPPER 40S TEMPS). THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS FAR EAST TAPERING TO LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC NEAR MQT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHOW UP OVER MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BEING THE RESULT. THE RETROGRADING SFC LOW MOVING OVER W PA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N HUDSON BAY...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THOUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE E COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD SWING IN FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MQT COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND W QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. THIS IS STILL THE 6TH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...SO WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH IT QUITE YET...AS THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY A FEW SMALLER POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BETWEEN -0 TO -4C THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY ON N-NNW WINDS...BEFORE BRIEFLY FALLING TO AROUND -8C OVER THE W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW LINGERING ALOFT BEHIND THE THE NEXT 500MB LOW SWINGING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES FROM SATURDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NW FLOW OVERHEAD AT 12Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TO FAR E MN. THE 29/06Z GFS IS INITIALLY ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN THE 19/00Z ECMWF. THE 29/12Z REMAINS AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE 29/12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WILL HEDGE THE MID RANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 AS A RIDGE FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AN INTENSE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST PA DRIFTS TO THE WEST...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN INCREASING NRLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTO KSAW. THE UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN BKN MVFR CIGS. SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED INITIALLY WITH RAIN...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KSAW. MDL TRENDS SUGGEST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE IFR RANGE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE... POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ006-007. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ013-014-085. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267. GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
916 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI... WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...AND TO MAKE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BASED ON TRENDS AS OF 02 UTC. LOW-LEVEL EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER SHALLOW BATCH OF COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO LIVINGSTON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AIR MASS...AND EXPECTED EROSION ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WILL END UP BEING THE FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT INTO THU. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEGUN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AS OF MID EVENING...AND THAT VERIFIES THE MODEL-SIMULATED LEE TROUGH THAT SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS SWINGING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT LIVINGSTON BY ABOUT 06 UTC...AND EVEN AT BILLINGS BEFORE MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TOO. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE EXPECT STRATUS TO AT LEAST BUILD INTO PLACES LIKE BAKER AND EKALAKA. THAT IDEA HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE SREF OUTPUT FROM 15 AND 21 UTC /WHICH CALLS FOR A 95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL IN THOSE AREAS/ AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. A QUESTION MARK WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE STRATUS DEVELOPS WEST ALL THE WAY TO MILES CITY...WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED DATA SETS KEEPING THAT AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. FOG WAS ALSO GIVEN SOME CONSIDERATION...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FROM REALLY SETTING IN UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...WE DID REDUCE HIGHS FOR BAKER AND EKALAKA BY ABOUT 5 F FOR THU OUT OF RESPECT TO CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND STRATUS THAT MAY LINGER FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH COOL EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETREATING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ITS A MOIST FLOW ALOFT...SO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA BUT IT DOES APPEAR DOWNSLOPE COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS. DID NOT PAINT THIS DETAIL YET AS RIDGE WOULD NOT HAVE TO AMPLIFY MUCH MORE TO PUSH THE COOLER AIR FURTHER WEST AND SHUT DOWNSLOPE OFF. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A COOL DOWN BUT AIR ALOFT IS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. BORSUM && .AVIATION... A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING KLVM...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FROM KMLS TO KBHK...EXPECT TO SEE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KBIL WEST TO KLVM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM KBIL TO KSHR AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CHURCH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042/064 043/054 035/049 038/062 037/060 035/055 035/054 00/B 23/W 11/B 11/B 11/N 23/W 33/W LVM 044/066 039/055 034/046 031/058 030/056 028/050 028/049 02/T 42/W 12/W 22/W 22/W 33/W 33/W HDN 035/066 040/056 032/051 035/063 036/064 034/057 034/056 00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 33/W MLS 036/060 038/048 030/048 034/061 035/059 033/055 033/054 00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 22/W 4BQ 037/065 039/054 034/047 035/061 036/060 034/055 034/054 00/B 13/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W BHK 033/049 034/047 028/043 033/059 033/056 031/053 031/052 00/E 13/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 22/W SHR 039/065 036/053 030/048 033/060 032/058 030/052 030/051 00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 33/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
345 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRIMARY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS SEASONABLY MILD AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES. 19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A WEAK 1012MB LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING TWO MAIN PURPOSES AT THIS HOUR...FOR ONE SEPARATING PRIMARILY EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA FROM PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WEST...AND IS ALSO SETTING UP A RESPECTABLE TEMP GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS WITHIN MOST OF THE CWA RANGING FROM ONLY MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST...WHILE JUST BARELY WEST OF THE CWA LOW-MID 70S PREVAIL AT SITES SUCH AS NORTH PLATTE/MCCOOK. FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS TODAY WILL FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST VALUES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...IN BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND THE DEEP EASTERN TROUGH/POST-TROPICAL SANDY CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER PA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AT MID- AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF A MID LEVEL DECK WAS SKIRTING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BLACK HILL REGION WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE HORIZON. THE EASTERN NEBRASKA CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF AN 80+KT 300MB JET STREAK POSITIONED OVERHEAD. FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE BREEZES WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS POST-SUNSET TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE 40S ALL AREAS BY 03Z. FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THINGS GET SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...AS SEVERAL HIGHER RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ALSO THE HRRR TRY BREAKING OUT WHAT WOULD LIKELY BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS FORCING...WHICH IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS APPEARS TIED TO A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS A BIT CLEARER WHEN EXAMINING SATURATION ALONG THE 305K ISENTROPIC SFC PER THE 12Z NAM...AND IS ALSO CAPTURED IN THE NAM BY A BATCH OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700MB WORKING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON 12 NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AM FAIRLY DOUBTFUL THAT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL RESULT...GIVEN CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP APPEARS TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE...AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS WORDING POST-MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT WOULD SEEM THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THIS SPRINKLE/LIGHT RAIN IS NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL BRING THIS SPRINKLE WORDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS AN OVERTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING LIKE ALL THAT BIG OF A DEAL...BUT NONETHELESS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALONG THESE SAME LINES...SKY COVER WAS BOOSTED INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS SAME AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...AM NOT ADVERTISING A TRULY NON-DIURNAL CURVE...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY EFFICIENT FALL THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...CHANGED LOWS VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE CWA SETTLING BETWEEN 34-39 DEGREES. FOR THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE VERY MILD HALLOWEEN IN A ROW...AND THE THIRD TIME IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THAT HALLOWEEN HIGHS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S CWA-WIDE. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER GENERALLY NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BISECT THE CWA...SEPARATING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN THE EAST FROM WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WERE INCREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FCST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS STILL ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 10-14 MPH MOST AREAS. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES INTO THE CWA...SOME OF THE WARMER AIR OBSERVED TODAY WEST OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...AND HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS ROUGHLY 2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST NEARLY ALL AREAS...AND MAYBE NOT EVEN ENOUGH PER THE NAM/MET SOLUTION. EVEN SO...NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 70S EAST TO MID-UPPER 70S WEST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TOP 10-TO-15 WARMEST HALLOWEEN ON RECORD FOR MOST SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY 281. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RANGE OF 18-20 PERCENT ACROSS SOME OF THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY FIRE DANGER MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW GIVEN THAT SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL SHORT OF CRITICAL 20/25 MPH THRESHOLDS. FOCUSING ON PRECIP/CLOUD TRENDS...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES TO LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME PERIOD...AS SUBTLE-TO-MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH A STEADY POST-SUNRISE DEPARTURE OF ANY POTENTIALLY SOLID LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE MAIN THEME: AN STRETCH OF PLEASANT AUTUMN WX WILL CONT THRU FRI WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THEN A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE NICE WX RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDS: NONE FORESEEABLE. QPF: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN LOOK SCANT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS OF SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE NOV 10-14 TIMEFRAME. BIG PICTURE: NAO IS NEGATIVE AND WHILE THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL TEMPORARILY LOWER HGTS IN VICINITY OF GREENLAND OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH THAT HGT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE THRU MID-NOV. THIS FAVORS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PAC WILL YIELD A COUPLE OF DECENT TROFS THAT COULD EVENTUALLY THREATEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POSSIBLE EVENT AROUND NOV 6TH. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN CASE THEY DECIDE TO COME BACK TO IT. TEMPS: MODELS ARE NOW DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR UNTIL AFTER THU-FRI WHICH IS WHY WE STRUGGLED YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR THU. THE EXTREME DISPARITY WITH 00Z MOS CYCLE HAS VANISHED AND THE 12Z MET GUIDANCE IS NOW WARMER. FRI`S NOW LOOKING WARMER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY AS WELL. SOME TYPE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WED NGT. BELIEVE THE COOLER AIR NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEAK THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU FRI AND YANKS THE COOL FRONT SWD. THE DAILY DETAILS... WED NGT: WEAK FRONT/TROF PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANCE. THU: M/SUNNY AND VERY NICE /65-76F/. 10F ABOVE NORMAL. FRI: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. P-M/CLOUDY /63-76F/. 10 ABOVE NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS: INCREASED SKY TO M/CLOUDY IN THE FRI NGT-SAT MRNG FCST AND BELIEVE THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. SAT: M/CLOUDY AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER. AS OF NOW 53-61F AND THIS IS ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. RAIN: THE PERSISTENT ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF HAS SWEPT THE QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MSTR WELL S OF THE CONUS. MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT NIGHT: DOES SYSTEM ENTRAIN GULF MSTR FAST ENUF TO RAIN HERE BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E? CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THE FCST IS TOO LOW ON PCPN POTENTIAL. IT`S STILL CONCEIVABLE IT RAINS HERE BUT BOTTOM LINE IS IT WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR .05 QPF OR HIGHER CONT TO BE OVER FAR ERN KS/NEB. SUN-TUE: A RETURN TO PLEASANT WX IN DRY NW FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL MON. WE COULD SEE ONE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL /+10F/ TEMPS. 11/6: SOME LIGHT PCPN? AROUND 11/10: LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES A POSSIBILITY. THIS PER SEVERAL DAYS OF RUNS FROM THE GFS. THIS TIME FRAME IS APPROACHING AT THE TAIL END OF THE EC ENSEMBLES AND THERE`S A BIG TROF FCST OVER THE WRN USA. IF THIS WORKS OUT RIGHT...IT COULD END UP A HEALTHY PCPN EVENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/ AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BASED AROUND 9000 FT. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD EVEN MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...BUT WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME. BREEZES WILL AVERAGE UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...PREVAILING FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
624 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AND INTO CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... FOR 630 PM UPDATE...SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO POP FIELDS FOR NEXT 6 HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RUC FORECAST. 18Z RUN OF GFS COMING IN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BELIEF THAT AIRMASS IS TOO WARM FOR SNOW TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR EXTREME SW PART OF AREA WHERE TEMPS THE CLOSEST TO POSSIBLY HAVING SOME SNOW. UNLESS BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN OVER LAKE AND GEAUGA PERSISTS...THE RAIN OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST FLOODING ISSUES AT BAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY AREAS OF LOCALLY PERSISTENT HEAVIER RAIN. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A HANDFUL OF RIVERS. FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK IN LINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY MOVES SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING INTO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES START COOLING FRIDAY AT 850 MB BUT THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SEEMS TOO WARM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET SNOW. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MENTION SNOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT IS CHANCE POPS. AT THIS TIME THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMPT A NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. EVEN THROUGH THE GROUND IS SATURATED THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY JUST PROMPT A NEED FOR FLOOD ADVISORIES AND NOT WARNINGS. HOWEVER...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR A FEW RIVERS AND SOME ARE FALLING. USED A MIX OF GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ECMWF MOVES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HPC LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO DISAGREE AS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW THIS FAR OUT. FOR FORECAST WENT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED NE OF PIT AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE LOW INTO WRN NY STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MOST AREAS...LINGERING SATURDAY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... ANGRY LAKE BEGINNING TO SETTLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE WESTERN HALF...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST. REMNANT LOW ACROSS WESTERN PA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING OUT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY ONWARD. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT THE EAST HALF CAN GO WITHOUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT WINDS COME AROUND TO THE WNW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PICK UP. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD TO 30 KNOTS IN THERE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND RELAXING THE WINDS AND VEERING THEM TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>146- 162>166. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ147-148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... FORMER HURRICANE SANDY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVR S-CENTRAL PA NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE LATEST RAP DEPICTS THE LOW DOWN TO AT 980MB...OR -5 SD BELOW NORMAL. LGT-MOD RAIN BANDS CAN BE FOUND OVER N-CENTRAL PA ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE BULK OF THE PCPN REMAINS ON THE SWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED DUE TO ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...BFD IS STILL SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN MDT AS OF 11Z. PTYPE ACRS MOST OF WRN PA IS RAIN...WITH RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIER ELEVATIONS AOA 2200FT IN SOMERSET CO. 730AM EDT SEVEN SPRINGS WEBCAM OB IS 30F AND SLOPES ARE COVERED WITH SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING-INDUCED COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RA/SN MIX THRU THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST AROUND POST-TROPICAL SANDY...OBSERVED/FCST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE NOW WELL BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WE DOWNGRADED TO A WIND ADVY. THE LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE WINDS AS THE P-GRADIENT CONTINUES TO UNRAVEL. RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE BULK OF THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT FROM SANDY HAS ALREADY SET THE WARNING PROCESS IN MOTION...WITH FEW IF ANY ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...WE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE LATEST MODELS...TURNING MORE NWWD THIS AFTN THEN NWD THROUGH TNT. PCPN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 24HR TOTALS ENDING 12Z WED LESS THAN 1 INCH. LLVL COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO CENTRAL PA /FROM THE SOUTH/ THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SREF H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -3 DEGREES C. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ENOUGH EVAP COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME TIME OF DAY TO ALLOW FOR WET SNOW TO MIX WITH PDS OF -RA OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL...BUT THE HIGH RES SREF/RAP/NAM12KM/NAM4KM ALL SUPPORT AT LEAST A RA/SN MIX BY 18Z. FEEL THAT CHC FOR WET SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN IS BETTER AFTER DARK...BUT WILL MENTION CHC SNOW FOR THE AFTN PERIOD IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NO ACCUM EXPECTED. A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET CO AS THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT LATER TONIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WSW FOR SOMERSET RIDGES IN EFFECT UNTL 8 PM. MOST AREAS WILL RECORD EARLY MORNING HIGHS WITH TEMPS STEADY TO FALLING /NON-DIURNAL/ INTO TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING SANDY WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AS THE STORM/S REMNANTS CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM FILLS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHUNT THE REMAINING UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED AS A RESULT WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDS LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...PSBLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS. BY SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 30/12Z... RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOC WITH POST-TROPICAL SANDY JUST SOUTH OF KAOO. BANDS OF LGT TO MOD RNFL WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHICH IS FCST TO TRACK WWD INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT CIGS AND VISBYS TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE ATM COOLS FROM THE TOP-DOWN. BACKED OFF ON THE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS BASED ON THE LATEST TABULAR GUID. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT KAOO/KUNV/KBFD BY LATER THIS AFTN AND HAVE ADDED SN TO TAFS. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR TO VFR EAST. FRI...MVFR -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...VFR EAST. SAT...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-063>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
540 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... FORMER HURRICANE SANDY IS NOW MOVG SLOWLY WWD OVR S-CENTRAL PA NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IN SW PA BY MID-DAY. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE LOW AT 972MB...OR -6 SD BELOW NORMAL. BANDS OF MOD RAINS CAN BE FOUND OVER N-CENTRAL PA. THE BULK OF THE PCPN REMAINS ON THE SWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED DUE TO ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...BFD IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN MDT. PTYPE ACRS MOST OF WRN PA IS RAIN...WITH RA/SN MIX ACRS THE HIER ELEVATIONS AOA 2200FT IN SOMERSET CO. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING-INDUCED COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RA/SN MIX THRU THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST AROUND POST-TROPICAL SANDY...OBSERVED/FCST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE NOW BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WE DOWNGRADED TO A WIND ADVY WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 45 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER GIVEN SATURATED SOILS...THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS MAY STILL KNOCK DOWN TREES. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE LATEST MODELS...TURNING MORE NWWD THIS AFTN THEN NWD THROUGH TNT. PCPN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 24HR TOTALS ENDING 12Z WED LESS THAN 1 INCH. LLVL COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO CENTRAL PA /FROM THE SOUTH/ THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SREF H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -3 DEGREES C. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ENOUGH EVAP COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME TIME OF DAY TO ALLOW FOR WET SNOW TO MIX WITH PDS OF -RA OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL...BUT THE HIGH RES SREF/RAP/NAM12KM/NAM4KM ALL SUPPORT AT LEAST A RA/SN MIX BY 18Z. FEEL THAT CHC FOR WET SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN IS BETTER AFTER DARK...BUT WILL MENTION CHC SNOW FOR THE AFTN PERIOD IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NO ACCUM EXPECTED. A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET CO AS THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT LATER TONIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WSW FOR SOMERSET RIDGES IN EFFECT UNTL 8 PM. MOST AREAS WILL RECORD EARLY MORNING HIGHS WITH TEMPS STEADY TO FALLING /NON-DIURNAL/ INTO TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING SANDY WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AS THE STORM/S REMNANTS CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM FILLS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHUNT THE REMAINING UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED AS A RESULT WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDS LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...PSBLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS. BY SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 30/09Z...UPDATE NO SIG CHANGES FOR THE INTERMEDIATE TAF UPDATE. THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL SANDY IS NOW JUST NORTH OF KHGR. 30/06... RADAR SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOC WITH POST-TROPICAL SANDY MOVG WWD FROM KTHV AS OF 06Z. BANDS OF MOD TO OCNL HVY RNFL ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHICH IS FCST TO TRACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE IFR-LIFR CATG AT BFD/JST...WITH MARGINAL MVFR CONDS PREVAILING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOC WITH THE VERY DEEP POST-TROPICAL LOW WILL MAINTAIN LLWS EARLY TODAY. STG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...BREEZY. MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR WITH ISOLD -SHRA CENTRAL AND EAST. FRI...MVFR -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...BCMG VFR EAST. SAT...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-063>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
710 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BACK INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SATELLITE HAS EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING REVOLVES AROUND THE STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 18Z NAM/21Z RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOLID STRATUS DECK SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. 00Z KBIS/KGGW SOUNDINGS PUT THE TOP OF STRATUS DECK AROUND 4000FT MSL. DEPTH OF STRATUS WILL ALLOW IT TO INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WITH THE STRATUS AND ALSO ADD MENTION OF FOG. THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE...BUT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT. && .AVIATION...00Z TAF UPDATE IFR STRATUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. LIFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY FROM K2WX-KRAP WHERE STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012/ DISCUSSION... LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 110W WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE TO NEAR 105W BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN FLATTEN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF. SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST WARD AFTER CROSSING THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. LOWERED POPS ON FRIDAY AS A CONSEQUENCE. AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...PROBABLY REACHING THE BLACK HILLS AND RAPID CITY AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THURSDAY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH AND WEST TO NORTH AND EAST. EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH BROAD RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....WFO UNR AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY NOW OVER WASHINGTON DC AREA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WAS PRODUCING BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED A VEIL OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO WI/IL. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA. 30.12Z NCEP MODELS/29.21Z SREF/29.12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS GETTING SHUNTED NORTH INTO NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SETTING UP AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AS DEEPER MIXING TAKES PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 45-50 RANGE. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY 1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OVER PA AND AN ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO KRST. CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL EDGE EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST GLANCE KLSE THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON NORTH WINDS IN THE 12 TO 13 KT RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE 5 TO 8 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 13 KT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY NOW OVER WASHINGTON DC AREA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WAS PRODUCING BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED A VEIL OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO WI/IL. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA. 30.12Z NCEP MODELS/29.21Z SREF/29.12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS GETTING SHUNTED NORTH INTO NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SETTING UP AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AS DEEPER MIXING TAKES PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 45-50 RANGE. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT 600 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A FEED OF DRY AIR INTO THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND POST-TROPICAL STORM SANDY SHIFTING WEST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY NORTH WIND AT THE TAF SITES BY LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE ANTICIPATED...STRONGEST AT KLSE WHERE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSSO F DAYTIME HEATING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY NOW OVER WASHINGTON DC AREA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WAS PRODUCING BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED A VEIL OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO WI/IL. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA. 30.12Z NCEP MODELS/29.21Z SREF/29.12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS GETTING SHUNTED NORTH INTO NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SETTING UP AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AS DEEPER MIXING TAKES PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 45-50 RANGE. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY 1117 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012 HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF SANDY HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH SANDY TRACKING TO THE WEST AND RUNNING INTO THIS RIDGE. EXPECT GUSTS TO BE IN THE 16-24KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN IS A STRONG RIDGE WHICH IS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE CLOSE WITH MAYBE BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD. SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE THAT THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRATUS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RUC...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THIS NICELY...AND THE HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGING/SOME COOLING FROM THE FRONT LOOK TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST HALF. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB FROM YESTERDAY...CURRENT BIAS...AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST LATELY SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISE IN MAXES IN THE WEST. WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE STRATUS AND FRONT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS. HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTEST GRADIENT OCCUR IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SO WINDS COULD GET INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA. LOOK TO GET DOWNSLOPE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. FRONT STARTS MOVING IN LATE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION AND WILL MAKE THE MINS COOLEST HERE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z WITH STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND COULD HINDER THE HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND CURRENT FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS BREEZY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. ALSO SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIAS...AND LATEST 2 METER/NWP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURES. COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND AS NEXT SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP OFF TO ALLOW FOR COOLER MINS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE...CLEAR SKIES AND NO MAJOR AIR MASS CHANGES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY...MAINLY AT KGLD...DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 FOR TODAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS GO. THIS COMPLICATED BY INCOMING FRONT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BELIEVE MIXING WILL OCCUR BETTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AT THIS TIME. SO BELIEVE THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. QUESTION THEN BECOMES IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH IN THIS SAME AREA. GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...BUFKIT...AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL BE CLOSE. SO AT THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. FOR FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS DAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...DLF FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .DISCUSSION... OVERVIEW...STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED OUR PROBABILITIES. LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORTWAVE KEEPS SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COOL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER LEFT WESTERN WI AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN ROUGHLY 1-2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HASN`T HAPPENED SINCE SPRING OF 2011. WE WILL START NOVEMBER BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN TODAY AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 01.00Z MPX SOUNDING AND RUC ANALYSES LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED EAST CENTRAL MN SITTING AT ABOUT +3 C AT 850MB...OVER THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS COOLED 1-3 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM 9-12Z...SO BY 15Z MOST OF EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WILL BE BETWEEN -4 AND -6 C AT 850MB. PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS COMING DOWN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AS WELL. BESIDES A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CLOUDY MORNING AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH MIXING BY 18Z TO SCATTER OUT THE STATUS DECK...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT FOR CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS. WE HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE RUC WHICH HANGS ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE EC/GFS AND PARTLY TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. WE BASICALLY HAVE 40% POPS IN THERE NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WAS DISCUSSION OF GOING LOWER...BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL NO DOUBT BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT EVEN WHERE IT DOES PRECIP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE DRY NAM HAS SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND SATURATION ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EVEN THE EC PAINTS A STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON AND IT JUST SEEMED A LITTLE PREMATURE TO REVERT FROM 45-55 POPS TO 20 POPS AT THIS POINT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE ONSET ON FRIDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT SNOW HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MN AND REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS. YESTERDAY...WE MENTIONED THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2"...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY. IN THE EXTENDED...NICE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM CARVING OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. LONGWAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVER THE MIDWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE IS ACTUALLY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 01.00Z GFS AND EC 8-10 DAYS OUT WITH THIS TROUGH. GOT A FEW DAYS TO GO YET BEFORE THIS SYSTEM CAN REALLY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE AS WE GET CLOSER TO VETERAN`S DAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH AN MVFR STRATUS DECK LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING. A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. KMSP... SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK REACHING THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z...BUT OPTIMISTIC THAT CEILINGS WILL STAY ABOVE 1800FT. THE BROKEN DECK SHOULD RAISE AND SCATTER OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS E AT 05KTS. SAT...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AND -RASN. WINDS E AT 05KTS. SUN...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS S AT 5 TO 10KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ CLF/JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1041 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI... UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF LINE FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PRODUCING PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING. RICHMOND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...AND TO MAKE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BASED ON TRENDS AS OF 02 UTC. LOW-LEVEL EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER SHALLOW BATCH OF COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO LIVINGSTON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AIR MASS...AND EXPECTED EROSION ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WILL END UP BEING THE FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT INTO THU. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEGUN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AS OF MID EVENING...AND THAT VERIFIES THE MODEL-SIMULATED LEE TROUGH THAT SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS SWINGING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT LIVINGSTON BY ABOUT 06 UTC...AND EVEN AT BILLINGS BEFORE MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TOO. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE EXPECT STRATUS TO AT LEAST BUILD INTO PLACES LIKE BAKER AND EKALAKA. THAT IDEA HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE SREF OUTPUT FROM 15 AND 21 UTC /WHICH CALLS FOR A 95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL IN THOSE AREAS/ AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. A QUESTION MARK WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE STRATUS MAKES ITS WAY ALL THE WAY TO MILES CITY...WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED DATA SETS KEEPING THAT AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. FOG WAS ALSO GIVEN SOME CONSIDERATION...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FROM REALLY SETTING IN UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...WE DID REDUCE HIGHS FOR BAKER AND EKALAKA BY ABOUT 5 F FOR THU OUT OF RESPECT TO CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND STRATUS THAT MAY LINGER FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH COOL EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETREATING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ITS A MOIST FLOW ALOFT...SO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA BUT IT DOES APPEAR DOWNSLOPE COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS. DID NOT PAINT THIS DETAIL YET AS RIDGE WOULD NOT HAVE TO AMPLIFY MUCH MORE TO PUSH THE COOLER AIR FURTHER WEST AND SHUT DOWNSLOPE OFF. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A COOL DOWN BUT AIR ALOFT IS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. BORSUM && .AVIATION... A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING KLVM...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FROM KMLS TO KBHK...EXPECT TO SEE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KBIL WEST TO KLVM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM KBIL TO KSHR AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CHURCH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042/064 043/054 035/049 038/062 037/060 035/055 035/054 00/B 23/W 11/B 11/B 11/N 23/W 33/W LVM 044/066 039/055 034/046 031/058 030/056 028/050 028/049 02/T 42/W 12/W 22/W 22/W 33/W 33/W HDN 035/066 040/056 032/051 035/063 036/064 034/057 034/056 00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 33/W MLS 036/060 038/048 030/048 034/061 035/059 033/055 033/054 00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 22/W 4BQ 037/065 039/054 034/047 035/061 036/060 034/055 034/054 00/B 13/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W BHK 033/049 034/047 028/043 033/059 033/056 031/053 031/052 00/E 13/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 22/W SHR 039/065 036/053 030/048 033/060 032/058 030/052 030/051 00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/W 33/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
355 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND HAS JUST PUSHED INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FILLING IN BEHIND. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY LARGE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... NOVEMBER STARTING OUT TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST...AT LEAST TEMPS AND CLOUD WISE. NEAR TERM MODELS...HRRR/RAP...CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTEND OF THE STRATUS INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN ALSO DELAYS THE DISSIPATION FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO A MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER FORECAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF BBW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THE SHALLOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST REBOUNDING NICELY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TO AROUND 70. STRATUS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S THEN AS THE CLOUDS BREAK TEMPS SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 50S. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW STRATUS TO BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST LAST WEEK THE MODELS WERE TOO QUICK TO LIFT THE STRATUS. THUS AM CONCERNED AREAS FROM BBW TO ANW AND POINTS EAST MAY END UP COOLER THAN FORECAST. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH PAC NW SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THEN TURNING MORE TO THE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 70S TO THE AREA. TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP HIGHS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO N DAKOTA...WITH COOLER AIR CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE SW. THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES SE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SEEN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...A RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST THEN BUILD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAY EVEN RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S. && .AVIATION... FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RAP BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELD PUSHES LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND LIFR CIGS...TO ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM 50W OF KVTN...TO 20NE OF KLBF THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING THURSDAY. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STRATUS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE KVTN TERMINAL ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS THIS AM...WILL SCATTER OUT IFR CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR THAT TERMINAL. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH NO IFR CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT BOTH TERMINALS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MASEK AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF SALEM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW PRESSURE INSIDE 130W APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS LOW IS UNDERGOING CYCLOLYSIS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX AND MINI TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH ONTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY PULSE UP IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 4 HRS. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATER SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THUNDER COVERAGE AND WORDING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE SHADOWING WILL BE STRONGEST. SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER 09Z OR SO. SPLIT OVERNIGHT POP GRIDS INTO 3 HR SEGMENTS TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION. MODELS DO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. THE RUC...WHOSE WINDS WILL A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE LAST NIGHT...KEEPS 925MB 10 KTS LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT SO EVEN WINDIER LOCATIONS LIKE GARIBALDI SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. AS THE LOW SPREADS INLAND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO NORTH SO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. DEEP UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS WINDS COMING DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COLLIDE WITH WINDS COMING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE WHERE AND IF THIS WILL DEVELOP REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT BEST. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR EAST...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT REMINISCENT OF A SIMILAR EVENT THIS PAST SPRING THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER VANCOUVER AND POINTS EAST. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS. WITH SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. TWEAKED THE AREAL COVERAGE TO EMPHASIZE THE ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS LARGELY ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. /NEUMAN .LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW ONLY ON THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS. && .AVIATION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THE AIRMASS UNSTABLE WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INLAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INLAND THU MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT SEAS IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY...THEN STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
905 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF SALEM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW PRESSURE INSIDE 130W APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS LOW IS UNDERGOING CYCLOLYSIS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX AND MINI TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH ONTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY PULSE UP IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 4 HRS. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATER SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THUNDER COVERAGE AND WORDING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE SHADOWING WILL BE STRONGEST. SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AFTER 09Z OR SO. SPLIT OVERNIGHT POP GRIDS INTO 3 HR SEGMENTS TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION. MODELS DO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. THE RUC...WHOSE WINDS WILL A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE LAST NIGHT...KEEPS 925MB 10 KTS LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT SO EVEN WINDIER LOCATIONS LIKE GARIBALDI SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. AS THE LOW SPREADS INLAND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH SO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH. DEEP UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS WINDS COMING DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COLLIDE WITH WINDS COMING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE WHERE AND IF THIS WILL DEVELOP REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT BEST. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR EAST...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT REMINISCENT OF A SIMILAR EVENT THIS PAST SPRING THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER VANCOUVER AND POINTS EAST. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS. WITH SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. TWEAKED THE AREAL COVERAGE TO EMPHASIZE THE ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS LARGELY ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. /NEUMAN .LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW ONLY ON THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS. && .AVIATION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THE AIRMASS UNSTABLE WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INLAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INLAND THU MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT SEAS IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY...THEN STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1112 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS IFR/LIFR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. LIFR VSBY LIKELY FROM K2WX-KRAP WHERE STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012/ DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BACK INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SATELLITE HAS EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING REVOLVES AROUND THE STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 18Z NAM/21Z RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOLID STRATUS DECK SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. 00Z KBIS/KGGW SOUNDINGS PUT THE TOP OF STRATUS DECK AROUND 4000FT MSL. DEPTH OF STRATUS WILL ALLOW IT TO INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WITH THE STRATUS AND ALSO ADD MENTION OF FOG. THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE...BUT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2012/ LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 110W WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE TO NEAR 105W BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN FLATTEN WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF. SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST WARD AFTER CROSSING THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. LOWERED POPS ON FRIDAY AS A CONSEQUENCE. AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...PROBABLY REACHING THE BLACK HILLS AND RAPID CITY AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THURSDAY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH AND WEST TO NORTH AND EAST. EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH BROAD RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....WFO UNR AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1041 PM PDT Wed Oct 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will spread rain into eastern Washington and north Idaho tonight. Thursday will be a showery and breezy day, with drier but continued mostly cloudy conditions through the weekend. No significant storm systems are expected through the region until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Update: Low pressure continues to rotate off the WA/OR coastline, while the occluded front pushes across the Cascades. Moisture deepening along and ahead of the front is starting to saturate the atmosphere and showers are increasing over the Basin to Okanogan highlands. These will expand eastward through the early overnight as the occluded front moves through. However mainly light precipitation amounts are expected. NAM/SREF and HRRR 3KM data shows a couple waves of precipitation through Thursday morning, with brief breaks between both. The first one as described above and a second round of precipitation that should develop later in the overnight around the Cascades and Basin, after about 2-3 AM, before expanding east toward the eastern third of Washington and north Idaho late in the overnight and early Thursday morning. Getting the above timing described in the ZFP is difficult, so looking at the PFM or posted grids might give better resolution to the above thinking. Otherwise the forecast is on track, save for minor adjustments to reduce overnight lows a tad over the northeast and to add patchy fog over the northeast valleys and over the Basin. /J. Cote` && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A occluded/cold front will pass through the area through the early overnight. Light rain continue to develop along and ahead of it, expanding across the eastern TAF sites between 06-09z. Precipitation is then expected to redevelop from the west later overnight into Thursday as the primary low moves inland. Expect occasional VFR/occasional MVFR and VIS with the first round of precipitation, then MVFR and areas of IFR cigs with the second round of precipitation. By Thursday afternoon conditions will improve to VFR over the west and VFR/MVFR over the east, with wind becoming gusty, but generally less than 25 kts. Then after dark winds and the threat of precipitation as wanes. Yet low level moisture and continued southerly flow will bring a threat of IFR stratus over the eastern TAFs. /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 46 51 42 53 40 56 / 60 70 30 10 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 46 50 42 53 38 56 / 70 80 50 10 0 10 Pullman 46 53 41 55 42 59 / 60 80 40 10 0 0 Lewiston 48 58 44 60 43 60 / 60 70 40 10 0 0 Colville 45 52 41 51 38 54 / 60 70 30 10 10 10 Sandpoint 42 50 43 52 37 54 / 70 80 60 10 10 10 Kellogg 45 46 41 50 37 51 / 80 90 80 20 10 10 Moses Lake 46 57 39 56 41 58 / 60 50 10 10 0 10 Wenatchee 46 56 42 54 42 57 / 60 30 10 10 0 10 Omak 45 53 39 54 42 55 / 60 60 10 10 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
924 PM PDT Wed Oct 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will spread rain into eastern Washington and north Idaho tonight. Thursday will be a showery and breezy day, with drier but continued mostly cloudy conditions through the weekend. No significant storm systems are expected through the region until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Update: Low pressure continues to rotate off the WA/OR coastline, while the occluded front pushes across the Cascades. Moisture deepening along and ahead of the front is starting to saturate the atmosphere and showers are increasing over the Basin to Okanogan highlands. These will expand eastward through the early overnight as the occluded front moves through. However mainly light precipitation amounts are expected. NAM/SREF and HRRR 3KM data shows a couple waves of precipitation through Thursday morning, with brief breaks between both. The first one as described above and a second round of precipitation that should develop later in the overnight around the Cascades and Basin, after about 2-3 AM, before expanding east toward the eastern third of Washington and north Idaho late in the overnight and early Thursday morning. Getting the above timing described in the ZFP is difficult, so looking at the PFM or posted grids might give better resolution to the above thinking. Otherwise the forecast is on track, save for minor adjustments to reduce overnight lows a tad over the northeast and to add patchy fog over the northeast valleys and over the Basin. /J. Cote` && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A occluded/cold front will pass through the area this evening and early overnight. Light rain will develop from west to east between 00-06z, before briefly shifting to southeast WA and north ID and backing against the Cascades during the early overnight. Precipitation is then expected to redevelop from the west later overnight into Thursday as the primary low moves inland. Expect occasional MVFR/isolated IFR cigs with the first round of precipitation, then MVFR/areas of IFR cigs and VIS with the second round of precipitation. By Thursday afternoon conditions will improve to IFR over the west and IFR/MVFR over the east, with wind becoming gusty increasing, but generally less than 25 kts. /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 46 51 42 53 40 56 / 60 70 30 10 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 46 50 42 53 38 56 / 70 80 50 10 0 10 Pullman 46 53 41 55 42 59 / 60 80 40 10 0 0 Lewiston 48 58 44 60 43 60 / 60 70 40 10 0 0 Colville 45 52 41 51 38 54 / 60 70 30 10 10 10 Sandpoint 42 50 43 52 37 54 / 70 80 60 10 10 10 Kellogg 45 46 41 50 37 51 / 80 90 80 20 10 10 Moses Lake 46 57 39 56 41 58 / 60 50 10 10 0 10 Wenatchee 46 56 42 54 42 57 / 60 30 10 10 0 10 Omak 45 53 39 54 42 55 / 60 60 10 10 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY 341AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 FORECAST FOCUSED ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR LOOP/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW YORK WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI/MN. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI/MN AND NORTHERN IA. MEANWHILE...11-3.9MICRON IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WESTERLY WIND WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AS OF 2 AM. 01.00Z MODELS SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MORE DETAIL ON THIS WILL BE PROVIDED BELOW IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION. FOR TODAY...THE MID/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...EXITING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. UPON ITS EXIT...AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS FILED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AN MN WILL SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH MIXING IN THE LOWEST 925MB. NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R ERODE THESE CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON WHEREAS THE RAP KEEPS CLOUDS IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MAY BE A BIT BULLISH ON CLOUD COVER. STRATUS...WHICH ORIGINATED OVER A MORE MOIST SOURCE REGION WILL BE ADVECTING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...BELIEVE THE NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE WITH DECREASING CLOUD TREND BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 925MB LEVEL...AND WITH AMPLE MIXING...SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS COMING DOWN FOR GUSTS TODAY. DECENT COLD PUSH ALSO NOTED IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -4C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM MANITOBA/MN. WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM MT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TEENS IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT A LOT OF FORCING BEING DEPICTED WITH THIS WAVE AS FAR AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/PV-ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A VERY DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH OUTFLOW FROM HIGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSONS BAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND ALSO MOVED THEM SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WHERE BETTER//ALBEIT WEAK//FORCING IS BEING DEPICTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE IF ANYTHING DID PRECIPITATE...IT WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MAINLY RAIN FROM LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF TROUGHING VERSUS RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS POPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD TREND EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS DROP ANOTHER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWER LAYER DRY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. AS STATED ABOVE...TOOK A BLEND APPROACH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITION FOR US. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S//PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY// AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY 1130 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012 UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST WATERVAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...MOSTLY IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE. HOWEVER...JUST NORTH OF THE MID CLOUDS LIES A BROADER EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH SFC OBS MOSTLY SUB 2 KFT. LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW SATURATION/CLOUDS COULD WORK ACROSS KRST AND KLSE AFTER 12Z THU. THE NAM12 PUTS THE BREAKS ON THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE LOW SATURATION HOWEVER...KEEPING IT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS MIXING AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HALT ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS. THE 01.00Z GFS40 FAVORS THE RAP13. CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO KRST/KLSE. WILL TREND CIGS DOWNWARD FOR NOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY/OBS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATES MADE AS NEEDED. MODEL TRENDS DO FAVOR A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THU...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME CIGS COULD LINGER LONGER AT KLSE. THERE WAS SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SAGGING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROBABLY HELPED IN KEEPING DOWN MUCH OF THE GUST POTENTIAL. BETTER GRADIENT BY THU AFTERNOON THOUGH...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 20 KT GUSTS AT KRST. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 .UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE. SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS AREA...AS PER WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY. APPEARS THAT CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT EXPECTED WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL PROBABLY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE TO TEMPS...DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONS. LATEST RUC AND HRRR INDICATING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES. WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS...CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BRIEF...SO NO HILITES EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL SEEM IN ORDER...BASED ON LATEST RUC AND HRRR. WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS SOMETIME BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY...PER NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS NON EXISTANT...NOT EXPECTING WEATHER OR EVEN CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FEET AGL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012/ SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO... ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO NO CHANCE OF PRECIP ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM YESTERDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE. DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL WITH MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH AND WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 2-4 DEGREES. LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP FCST DRY THRU NEXT TUE WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF HIGHER LVL CLOUDINESS. AS FOR TEMPS A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO ON FRI AND DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOR THE WEEKEND 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE SO WILL KEEP HIGHS NR SEASONAL LVLS. BY MON AND TUE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING TREND WITH READINGS IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE ACROSS NERN CO. BY WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY HOWEVER NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY AM WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15KT. NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL ON AFTERNOON WINDS BUT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED BELOW 500MB. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT BJC. FOR DEN AND APA THE SIGNAL THE DIRECTION APPEARS MORE IFFY. REGARDLES OF DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....RPK AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1045 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 .UPDATE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... 14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CONSISTS OF A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY RIDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN FINALLY BACK INTO A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH UNDER DEEP LAYER WEST/NW FLOW. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BELOW AROUND 700MB UNDERNEATH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS. PW VALUES IS ONLY AROUND 1" WITH THIS PROFILE AND THIS OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SHOWER DEPTH/STRENGTH IN CHECK TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A RESULT OF YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A WEAK/NARROW ZONE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/QG FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OFF THE GULF...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...AND FOR THOSE THAT DO SEE THE SHOWERS...THE DURATION OF RAIN WILL BE SHORT. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADARS...IT APPEARS THAT THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS SOMEWHAT WINNING THE BATTLE AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY OUT THERE IS RATHER DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE NOT ORGANIZED...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND LOOKS TO PUT A SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM GENERALLY THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND BE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD SPOIL OUTDOOR PLANS. WILL END ALL SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY FRIDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALLOWING NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE WARMER...MAINLY MID 50S TO 60S FURTHER SOUTH. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TODAY-SATURDAY)... THE REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER EASTERN CANADA...COMBINED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FLORIDA. MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA TODAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. NAM CONTINUES TO OVER DO THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS SO WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE MORE REASONABLE GFS POPS. EXPECT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD TODAY. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF RENEWS ITS HOLD ON THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VISBY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE FROM PGD SOUTHWARD. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 59 78 63 / 30 10 0 0 FMY 81 63 81 60 / 30 20 10 10 GIF 80 57 79 58 / 30 10 0 0 SRQ 79 60 79 59 / 40 10 10 10 BKV 79 49 79 51 / 30 10 0 0 SPG 78 63 78 67 / 40 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MROCZKA AVIATION...BARRON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN IS A STRONG RIDGE WHICH IS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE CLOSE WITH MAYBE BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD. SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE THAT THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRATUS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RUC...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THIS NICELY...AND THE HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGING/SOME COOLING FROM THE FRONT LOOK TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST HALF. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB FROM YESTERDAY...CURRENT BIAS...AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST LATELY SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISE IN MAXES IN THE WEST. WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE STRATUS AND FRONT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS. HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTEST GRADIENT OCCUR IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SO WINDS COULD GET INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA. LOOK TO GET DOWNSLOPE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. FRONT STARTS MOVING IN LATE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION AND WILL MAKE THE MINS COOLEST HERE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z WITH STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND COULD HINDER THE HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND CURRENT FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS BREEZY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. ALSO SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIAS...AND LATEST 2 METER/NWP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURES. COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND AS NEXT SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP OFF TO ALLOW FOR COOLER MINS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE...CLEAR SKIES AND NO MAJOR AIR MASS CHANGES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRATUS FIELD OVER NEBRASKA WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KMCK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THOSE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KGLD. FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFTING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 FOR TODAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS GO. THIS COMPLICATED BY INCOMING FRONT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BELIEVE MIXING WILL OCCUR BETTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AT THIS TIME. SO BELIEVE THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. QUESTION THEN BECOMES IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH IN THIS SAME AREA. GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...BUFKIT...AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL BE CLOSE. SO AT THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. FOR FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS DAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...BULLER FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ MVFR CEILINGS AT KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS KRNH...KMSP AND KEAU EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS BETWEEN 015 AND 030 FROM NW TO SE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE DISSIPATION OF THE CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING PER MOST GUIDANCE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT PREVAILS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING EXPECTED FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 100 MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ND. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME -RA/-SN TO KAXN AND KRWF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 12-15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BECOMING LIGHT NE TO EAST TONIGHT. KMSP...A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS (025) THIS MORNING WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS RIGHT AROUND 035. SCT-BKN035-040 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO REAL PROBLEMS TONIGHT AND FRO MUCH OF FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FROM 150 TO 050 DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS (320-330) AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING 20 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT NE TONIGHT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. CEILINGS AOA 050. WINDS E AT 5 KTS. SAT...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH -RASN. WINDS E AT 5 KTS. SUN...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH -RA/-DZ. WINDS E AT 5 KTS. && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012/ OVERVIEW...STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED OUR PROBABILITIES. LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORTWAVE KEEPS SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COOL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER LEFT WESTERN WI AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN ROUGHLY 1-2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HASN`T HAPPENED SINCE SPRING OF 2011. WE WILL START NOVEMBER BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN TODAY AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 01.00Z MPX SOUNDING AND RUC ANALYSES LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED EAST CENTRAL MN SITTING AT ABOUT +3 C AT 850MB...OVER THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS COOLED 1-3 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM 9-12Z...SO BY 15Z MOST OF EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WILL BE BETWEEN -4 AND -6 C AT 850MB. PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS COMING DOWN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AS WELL. BESIDES A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CLOUDY MORNING AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH MIXING BY 18Z TO SCATTER OUT THE STATUS DECK...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT FOR CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS. WE HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE RUC WHICH HANGS ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE EC/GFS AND PARTLY TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. WE BASICALLY HAVE 40% POPS IN THERE NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WAS DISCUSSION OF GOING LOWER...BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL NO DOUBT BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT EVEN WHERE IT DOES PRECIP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE DRY NAM HAS SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND SATURATION ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EVEN THE EC PAINTS A STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON AND IT JUST SEEMED A LITTLE PREMATURE TO REVERT FROM 45-55 POPS TO 20 POPS AT THIS POINT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE ONSET ON FRIDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT SNOW HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MN AND REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS. YESTERDAY...WE MENTIONED THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2"...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY. IN THE EXTENDED...NICE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM CARVING OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. LONGWAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVER THE MIDWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE IS ACTUALLY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 01.00Z GFS AND EC 8-10 DAYS OUT WITH THIS TROUGH. GOT A FEW DAYS TO GO YET BEFORE THIS SYSTEM CAN REALLY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE AS WE GET CLOSER TO VETERAN`S DAY WEEKEND. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ RAH/CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
639 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .AVIATION...FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RAP BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELD...PUSHES LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND LIFR CIGS...TO ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM 50W OF KVTN...TO 20NE OF KLBF THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING THURSDAY. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STRATUS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE KVTN TERMINAL ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS THIS AM...WILL SCATTER OUT IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR THAT TERMINAL. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH NO IFR CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT BOTH TERMINALS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012/ SYNOPSIS... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND HAS JUST PUSHED INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FILLING IN BEHIND. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY LARGE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... NOVEMBER STARTING OUT TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST...AT LEAST TEMPS AND CLOUD WISE. NEAR TERM MODELS...HRRR/RAP...CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTEND OF THE STRATUS INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN ALSO DELAYS THE DISSIPATION FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO A MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER FORECAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF BBW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THE SHALLOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST REBOUNDING NICELY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TO AROUND 70. STRATUS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S THEN AS THE CLOUDS BREAK TEMPS SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 50S. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW STRATUS TO BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST LAST WEEK THE MODELS WERE TOO QUICK TO LIFT THE STRATUS. THUS AM CONCERNED AREAS FROM BBW TO ANW AND POINTS EAST MAY END UP COOLER THAN FORECAST. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH PAC NW SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THEN TURNING MORE TO THE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE 70S TO THE AREA. TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP HIGHS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO N DAKOTA...WITH COOLER AIR CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE SW. THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES SE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SEEN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...A RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST THEN BUILD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAY EVEN RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MASEK AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY 341AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 FORECAST FOCUSED ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR LOOP/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW YORK WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI/MN. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI/MN AND NORTHERN IA. MEANWHILE...11-3.9MICRON IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WESTERLY WIND WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AS OF 2 AM. 01.00Z MODELS SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MORE DETAIL ON THIS WILL BE PROVIDED BELOW IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION. FOR TODAY...THE MID/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...EXITING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. UPON ITS EXIT...AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS FILED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AN MN WILL SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH MIXING IN THE LOWEST 925MB. NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R ERODE THESE CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON WHEREAS THE RAP KEEPS CLOUDS IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MAY BE A BIT BULLISH ON CLOUD COVER. STRATUS...WHICH ORIGINATED OVER A MORE MOIST SOURCE REGION WILL BE ADVECTING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...BELIEVE THE NAM/NSSL-WRF GOES-R SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE WITH DECREASING CLOUD TREND BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 925MB LEVEL...AND WITH AMPLE MIXING...SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS COMING DOWN FOR GUSTS TODAY. DECENT COLD PUSH ALSO NOTED IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -4C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM MANITOBA/MN. WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM MT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TEENS IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT A LOT OF FORCING BEING DEPICTED WITH THIS WAVE AS FAR AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/PV-ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A VERY DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH OUTFLOW FROM HIGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSONS BAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND ALSO MOVED THEM SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WHERE BETTER//ALBEIT WEAK//FORCING IS BEING DEPICTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE IF ANYTHING DID PRECIPITATE...IT WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MAINLY RAIN FROM LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF TROUGHING VERSUS RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS POPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD TREND EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS DROP ANOTHER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWER LAYER DRY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. AS STATED ABOVE...TOOK A BLEND APPROACH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITION FOR US. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S//PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY// AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. && .AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT 634 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES AROUND 11Z. IN ITS WAKE...THERE IS A MASS OF STRATUS MARCHING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR...ALONG WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF SMALL HOLES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE A CERTAINTY TO MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES BY 15Z. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO ISSUES WITH THIS STRATUS: 1. WILL MVFR CEILINGS REACH THE TAF SITES - ONE MODEL...THE 01.06Z HIRES WRF-NMM...WHICH IS HANDLING THE OVERALL CLOUD EXTENT THE BEST SAYS THEY STAY OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MANY OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SIMILARLY TO THE HIRES WRF-NMM. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MODEL...THE 01.10Z RAP AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF IT...SAYS THE MVFR MOVES INTO BOTH TAF SITES. THE RAP GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...BUT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE HAVE RAISED CEILINGS ABOUT 500 FT. THIS STILL PUTS KRST AT MVFR FROM 14-17Z...THOUGH. KLSE IS NOW VFR. 2. WHEN DOES THE STRATUS CLEAR OUT - AGAIN THE MODELS VARY...FOLLOWING THE MVFR CONCERNS. HERE AS WELL HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY...WHICH MAKES SOME SENSE SEEING SOME SMALL HOLES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THAT THE GROUND IS DRY. USUALLY TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT A WET GROUND IS REALLY HELPFUL. THUS...STILL THINKING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO DOMINATE TONIGHT. COLD AIR FLOWING INTO THE TAF SITES COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD GUSTY WINDS AT BOTH SITES TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
700 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY TO OUR WEST AND ULTIMATELY WILL BE MOVED FURTHER NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LOOKS TO SKIRT BY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. A STRONGER COASTAL LOW COULD FORM JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SPOKE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER IS DRY...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THIS ACTIVITY MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT PLACE...AND IT WAS USED FOR THE ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN (CLOSE TO THE 0200 UTC TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER (DEEPER TROF) THAN THE GFS AND WAS USED MORE HEAVILY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SLOW WEATHER RECOVERY FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOW. WHILE WHAT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE SHORT WAVES AND TRIGGERS CAN NOT BE CRITICIZED FOR THEIR EFFORTS. PLENTY OF ECHOES ON THE 88DS, EVEN IF THEY ARE WEAK. FOR THIS EVENING WE SHOULD BE LOSING SHORT WAVE SUPPORT, SO WE DID SCALE BACK THE POPS WE WILL HAVE. AT THE END OF TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH THE CLOSING LOW. WE MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN HOLDING OFF POPS TOWARD MORNING WEST. OTHERWISE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND. LIKE LAST NIGHT, WE THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE BREAKS LATER AT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS MORE CLOUDS ALONG. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS, MIN TEMPS LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT AND WE DID ALSO IN THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS THOUGH SHOULD BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE FLAGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... WITH THE CLOSED LOW PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA, OUR POPS ON FRIDAY ARE LEANING TOWARD THE WRF-NMMB VS GFS MOS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH ZILCH. AGAIN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS IF THAT IN MOST AREAS. WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD POCKET ALOFT, THE MORNING TIMING OF THE PASSING OF THE FEATURE WOULD CUT DOWN ON ITS POTENTIAL. THE FORECAST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE ARE SUFFICIENT FOR US TO INCLUDE AT LEAST SLGT CHCS IN ALL PLACES DURING THE MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE LOOK IS MORE OF LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, WITH CHANCES CUTTING OFF FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE CLOSED LOW EXITS. THERMALLY THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY WARM BELOW 925MB AND THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WILL ALSO ASSIST. SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL ALOFT IS GOING TO HAVE TO FIGHT AN INHOSPITABLE FCST WET BULB TEMP. THUS MENTION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THE KATABATIC FLOW, WE DID GO ALONG WITH THE STAT GUIDANCE RIDE IN SPITE OF WHAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED SUNSHINE. HOPEFULLY WE WERE NOT TOO BULLISH WITH THIS PROCESS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND, COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW THAT FORMS ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. YESTERDAY THE 12Z GFS HAD THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE JERSEY COAST ON THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THIS WAS BASED ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE LAKES. TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE SAME SETUP BY DELAYS THE CYCLOGENESIS UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHERE A SECOND AND EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN FROM THE LAKES. IT IS THIS SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT TAKES ON MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIVES FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS PHASES ITS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SOONER THAN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW PRETTY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE COULD SEE RAIN ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH POSSIBLY A MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURE WISE, SINCE THE JET STREAM WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WESTERLY WIND DIMINISHES. A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MARYLAND COULD AFFECT KILG...KMIV AND POSSIBLY KACY BEFORE 0300 UTC. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND CEILINGS COULD RISE TO A MID DECK AFTER 0600 UTC. IN FACT...FROM KPHL SOUTH AND EAST CLOUDS COULD SCATTERED OUT TOWARD 1200 UTC. A WESTERLY WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY NEAR 5000 FEET. THE WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1500 AND 1600 UTC...AND LAST THROUGH 2100 UTC. FOR MOST FORECAST POINTS...WIND GUSTS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 23 KNOTS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. THUS...THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY YET. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SUNDAY - TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. && .MARINE... OUR MARINE WATERS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE CRITERIA BEING MET AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES. THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND MIXING LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER THE OCEAN, SO WE STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER THAN DELAWARE BAY. REGARDLESS THE INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WARMER WATER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONDITIONS BEING MET. OUTLOOK... SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SATURDAY AND COULD SPILL INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BAY LOOKS TO LOSE THE STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ACROSS OUR WATERS TOO. WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND SEAS WILL CLIMB...POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 5-6 FEET. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...HAYES/HEAVENER MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY TO OUR WEST AND ULTIMATELY WILL BE MOVED FURTHER NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LOOKS TO SKIRT BY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. A STRONGER COASTAL LOW COULD FORM JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SPOKE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER IS DRY...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THIS ACTIVITY MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT PLACE...AND IT WAS USED FOR THE ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN (CLOSE TO THE 0200 UTC TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER (DEEPER TROF) THAN THE GFS AND WAS USED MORE HEAVILY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SLOW WEATHER RECOVERY FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOW. WHILE WHAT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE SHORT WAVES AND TRIGGERS CAN NOT BE CRITICIZED FOR THEIR EFFORTS. PLENTY OF ECHOES ON THE 88DS, EVEN IF THEY ARE WEAK. FOR THIS EVENING WE SHOULD BE LOSING SHORT WAVE SUPPORT, SO WE DID SCALE BACK THE POPS WE WILL HAVE. AT THE END OF TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH THE CLOSING LOW. WE MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN HOLDING OFF POPS TOWARD MORNING WEST. OTHERWISE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND. LIKE LAST NIGHT, WE THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE BREAKS LATER AT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS MORE CLOUDS ALONG. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS, MIN TEMPS LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT AND WE DID ALSO IN THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS THOUGH SHOULD BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE FLAGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... WITH THE CLOSED LOW PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA, OUR POPS ON FRIDAY ARE LEANING TOWARD THE WRF-NMMB VS GFS MOS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH ZILCH. AGAIN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS IF THAT IN MOST AREAS. WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD POCKET ALOFT, THE MORNING TIMING OF THE PASSING OF THE FEATURE WOULD CUT DOWN ON ITS POTENTIAL. THE FORECAST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE ARE SUFFICIENT FOR US TO INCLUDE AT LEAST SLGT CHCS IN ALL PLACES DURING THE MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE LOOK IS MORE OF LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, WITH CHANCES CUTTING OFF FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE CLOSED LOW EXITS. THERMALLY THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY WARM BELOW 925MB AND THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WILL ALSO ASSIST. SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL ALOFT IS GOING TO HAVE TO FIGHT AN INHOSPITABLE FCST WET BULB TEMP. THUS MENTION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THE KATABATIC FLOW, WE DID GO ALONG WITH THE STAT GUIDANCE RIDE IN SPITE OF WHAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED SUNSHINE. HOPEFULLY WE WERE NOT TOO BULLISH WITH THIS PROCESS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND, COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW THAT FORMS ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. YESTERDAY THE 12Z GFS HAD THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE JERSEY COAST ON THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THIS WAS BASED ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE LAKES. TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE SAME SETUP BY DELAYS THE CYCLOGENESIS UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHERE A SECOND AND EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN FROM THE LAKES. IT IS THIS SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT TAKES ON MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIVES FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS PHASES ITS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SOONER THAN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW PRETTY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE COULD SEE RAIN ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH POSSIBLY A MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURE WISE, SINCE THE JET STREAM WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE 18Z TAFS WERE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC AS THE AIR MASS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR THE KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS SOUTHEASTWARD. WE DID MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRDG AND KABE AT TIMES. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO OCCUR AT TIMES AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN, WITH LOWER LEVEL VFR CIGS AT THE REST OF OUR TERMINALS. LOWEST CIGS HIER TRRN AIRPORTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS (MAINLY NORTHWEST), NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY FROM THE WEST AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MORE OF A HEALTHY SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH NOT MUCH GUSTINESS ABOVE 20 KNOTS. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AT THE NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND REMAIN SO ELSEWHERE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. FOR NOW WITHOUT A STRONG INCREASE IN PRESSURE, WE OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUSTAINED. WINDS WERE THEN LOWERED OVERNIGHT. TOO MANY CLOUDS FOR FOG TO FORM. ON FRIDAY, WE REPEAT THE PROCESS AGAIN, BUT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR. ALL CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SHOULD BE AT VFR LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AND ALSO NO RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST WITH ONCE AGAIN A HEALTHY SUSTAINED SPEED DEVELOPING CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20S. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SUNDAY - TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. && .MARINE... OUR MARINE WATERS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE CRITERIA BEING MET AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES. THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND MIXING LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER THE OCEAN, SO WE STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER THAN DELAWARE BAY. REGARDLESS THE INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WARMER WATER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONDITIONS BEING MET. OUTLOOK... SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SATURDAY AND COULD SPILL INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BAY LOOKS TO LOSE THE STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ACROSS OUR WATERS TOO. WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND SEAS WILL CLIMB...POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 5-6 FEET. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
210 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... 18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CONSISTS OF A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY RIDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN FINALLY BACK INTO A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH UNDER DEEP LAYER WEST/NW FLOW. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BELOW AROUND 700MB UNDERNEATH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS. PW VALUES IS ONLY AROUND 1" WITH THIS PROFILE AND THIS OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SHOWER DEPTH/STRENGTH IN CHECK TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A RESULT OF YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A WEAK/NARROW ZONE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/QG FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND BE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD SPOIL OUTDOOR PLANS. WILL END ALL SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY FRIDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALLOWING NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE WARMER...MAINLY MID 50S TO 60S FURTHER SOUTH. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE ALONG WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIRMASS. THEREFORE...NO LACK OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW A GOOD DIURNAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S/80 NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE DRY LOW LEVELS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET UP A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO AND ALLOW NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE 50S WILL BE COMMON. SATURDAY...ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY UNDER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY THIS TIME AND THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT TO ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRIDAY FORECAST. ENJOY! && LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... A WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE WILL DROP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DROPPING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE GULF WATERS BUT WILL PUSH IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT LAL WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. EXPECT FOG OVERNIGHT TO BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. && .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT ELSEWHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH ARE EXPECTED. THESE LOW VALUES OF RH WILL COMBINE WITH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT NUMBERS OF 35 OR GREATER OVER INLAND SARASOTA AND LEE COUNTIES TO PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE THE LOW RH VALUES...ERC VALUES ARE BELOW 35 AND WIND/DISPERSION INDICES WILL NOT SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RH VALUES BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 59 78 61 83 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 62 81 59 83 / 20 10 0 0 GIF 55 80 57 83 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 59 76 59 81 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 47 78 49 84 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 64 77 66 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE- SARASOTA. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA LONG TERM...OGLESBY AVIATION...BARRON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN IS A STRONG RIDGE WHICH IS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE CLOSE WITH MAYBE BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD. SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE THAT THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRATUS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RUC...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THIS NICELY...AND THE HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGING/SOME COOLING FROM THE FRONT LOOK TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST HALF. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB FROM YESTERDAY...CURRENT BIAS...AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST LATELY SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISE IN MAXES IN THE WEST. WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE STRATUS AND FRONT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS. HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTEST GRADIENT OCCUR IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SO WINDS COULD GET INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA. LOOK TO GET DOWNSLOPE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. FRONT STARTS MOVING IN LATE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION AND WILL MAKE THE MINS COOLEST HERE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z WITH STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND COULD HINDER THE HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND CURRENT FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS BREEZY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. ALSO SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER. GOING BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIAS...AND LATEST 2 METER/NWP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURES. COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND AS NEXT SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP OFF TO ALLOW FOR COOLER MINS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL BLOCK ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE...CLEAR SKIES AND NO MAJOR AIR MASS CHANGES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND GLD. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT GLD DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO...GUSTING TO 24KTS. AT MCK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW...BRINGING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20KTS BE LATE MORNING. WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PERIOD...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 FOR TODAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS GO. THIS COMPLICATED BY INCOMING FRONT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BELIEVE MIXING WILL OCCUR BETTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AT THIS TIME. SO BELIEVE THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. QUESTION THEN BECOMES IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH IN THIS SAME AREA. GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...BUFKIT...AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL BE CLOSE. SO AT THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. FOR FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS DAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JJM/LOCKHART FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1224 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WEAKEN FURTHER. THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA BUT HRRR AND OTHER MODELS HAVE ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT QPF OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OF THE CWFA TNGT...WITH UPR TROF AXIS CROSSING THE AREA LATE. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE COLUMN FURTHER AS WINDS BECOME MORE WLY. SHRA WILL SHIFT TO HIGH TERRAIN COMPLETELY. THE CAA WILL GIVE A COOLER DAY ON FRI...BUT STILL NEAR TO ABV NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT TO LABRADOR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GENERATING UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR COMES INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE COLD POINT OF THE WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PUSH LOWS INTO THE 20S STATEWIDE AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE. MONDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE REGION. TUESDAY A LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.... HOWEVER THE TREND WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS IS TO KEEP THE LOW CENTER OUT TO SEA...SO WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS FOR ELECTION DAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARDS OUT OF CANADA. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE TODAY UNDER UPR LVL LOW PRES. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH PASSING MVFR. CHC FOR -SHRA IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY KLEB AND KHIE. LONG TERM... MVFR IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY FOR HIE... VALLEY FOG RESULTING IN IFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT LEB HIE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS RADIATIONAL COOLING DRIVES TEMPERATURES QUITE LOW. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT FOR THE MOMENT... AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE CHANGES IN DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY...BUT HAVE FALLEN BLO 5 FT WITHIN THE BAYS. HAVE DROPPED THE SCA THERE...AND EXTENDED THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS ON THE WATERS... EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES OFFSHORE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1210 PM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .DISCUSSION... OVERVIEW...STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED OUR PROBABILITIES. LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORTWAVE KEEPS SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COOL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER LEFT WESTERN WI AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN ROUGHLY 1-2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HASN`T HAPPENED SINCE SPRING OF 2011. WE WILL START NOVEMBER BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN TODAY AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 01.00Z MPX SOUNDING AND RUC ANALYSES LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED EAST CENTRAL MN SITTING AT ABOUT +3 C AT 850MB...OVER THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS COOLED 1-3 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM 9-12Z...SO BY 15Z MOST OF EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WILL BE BETWEEN -4 AND -6 C AT 850MB. PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS COMING DOWN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AS WELL. BESIDES A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CLOUDY MORNING AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH MIXING BY 18Z TO SCATTER OUT THE STATUS DECK...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT FOR CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS. WE HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE RUC WHICH HANGS ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE EC/GFS AND PARTLY TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. WE BASICALLY HAVE 40% POPS IN THERE NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WAS DISCUSSION OF GOING LOWER...BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL NO DOUBT BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT EVEN WHERE IT DOES PRECIP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE DRY NAM HAS SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND SATURATION ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EVEN THE EC PAINTS A STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON AND IT JUST SEEMED A LITTLE PREMATURE TO REVERT FROM 45-55 POPS TO 20 POPS AT THIS POINT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE ONSET ON FRIDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT SNOW HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MN AND REMAIN A HALF INCH OR LESS. YESTERDAY...WE MENTIONED THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2"...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY. IN THE EXTENDED...NICE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM CARVING OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. LONGWAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVER THE MIDWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE IS ACTUALLY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 01.00Z GFS AND EC 8-10 DAYS OUT WITH THIS TROUGH. GOT A FEW DAYS TO GO YET BEFORE THIS SYSTEM CAN REALLY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE AS WE GET CLOSER TO VETERAN`S DAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN FA AS A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST. WITH STILL HIGH RH BLW 4K IN THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FA...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT025...WITH CIGS OF 3.5K FOR RNH/EAU/MSP. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLDS. BASED ON THE LATEST MOISTURE FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BELIEVE CIGS AFT THIS AFTN WILL ONLY FALL TO ARND 9-11K...WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K DEVELOPING WITH AN E/NE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NNW THIS AFTN/EVENING AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 6 KTS AFT 00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NNE/NE OVERNIGHT...WITH A PREDOMINATE NE/ENE WIND IN THE MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 8 KTS. KMSP... KEPT CIGS THRU THE AFTN ARND 3.5K AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LCL/S HOLD NEAR 3-4K. BY 23Z...CLDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT REMAIN ABV 9K. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT DECREASE AND HOLD ARND 6 KTS FROM THE N...THEN NE ON FRIDAY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT/SUN...VFR. ISOLD/SCT -RA/-SN. WINDS E AT 5 KTS. MON...VFR. SE 5 KTS. ..JLT.. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ CLF/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 .SHORT TERM... 1143 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 HAVE ADDED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF I-94. SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOUT A 0.75 KM DEEP POSITIVE INSTABILITY LAYER IN STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHALLOWS AS YOU HEAD SOUTHWEST TOWARD KLSE SO HAVE LIMITED SHRA TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ALSO SUGGEST SOME REFLECTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME AREA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME SPRINKLES AT KHYR AND KISW THIS MORNING. DONT THINK IT IS A BIG DEAL BUT WANTED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THESE ISOLATED SPRINKLES WOULD BE AROUND. STILL BELIEVE THE CLOUDS OVER THE SWRN TWO-THIRDS WILL BECOME MORE CELLULAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE SLOWED THE DECREASE SLIGHTLY. HAVE ALSO WARMED THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 2-3F SW OF I-94 WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EARLY JUMPING TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF TROUGHING VERSUS RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS POPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD TREND EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS DROP ANOTHER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWER LAYER DRY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. AS STATED ABOVE...TOOK A BLEND APPROACH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITION FOR US. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S//PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY// AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY 1143 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY BOUNCE KRST INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 20-22Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNDOWN...IN THE 20KT RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN. VERY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO 18Z TAFS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 341 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...BAUMGARDT