Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/31/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1014 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK THOUGH MAY HAVE
TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR A FEW DEGREES AS WRF
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS KEEP WAVE CLOUD IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ENOUGH MIXING IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS...CURRENT WIND FORECAST GRIDS SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. LATEST HRRR AND RUC
SHOWING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT DIA AROUND 20Z. FEEL
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PROVIDE MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012/
SHORT TERM...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SOME OF WHICH MAY MIX DOWN
TO THE GROUND AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. JUST IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS HAVE GUSTED TO
+40KTS. NOT REALLY EXPECTED GUSTS MUCH HIGHER THAN THIS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INCH UP WITH MID 60S TO LOWER
70S ON THE PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AVERAGE
HIGH AT DENVER TODAY IS 60. ASSUMING THE MTN WAVE CLOUD DON/T HANG
AROUND ALL DAY...SHOULD SEE THE MERCURY REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
THE METRO AREA. TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY AND THE MTN WAVE BREAKS DOWN. GOING
WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO UNDER THE
RIDGE.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE ECMWF
FORECASTS THE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPCOMING FORECASTS
CAN TREND HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST 6-12KT AT DENVER METRO AREA AIRPORTS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT OF 5-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1120 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST STATES AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAY BE CANCELING MOST OF THE REST OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH ONLY CAMBRIDGE THE PRIMARY RISK SENSOR
RELATED COUNTIES.
BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE LAST OF THE BANDS APPEARS TO BE
CLEARING MUCH OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND DELAWARE...AND COULD CLEAR
SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA SHRINKING WITH TIME...BUT THE TREND
APPEARS TO BE ONE OF MORE OR LESS STEADY STATE. BASED ON THIS...THE
EXTENT OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE EAST AND ALLOWED TO
LINGER IN TIME ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE
COLUMN IS IN THE PROCESS OF COOLING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS SEEN
ON THE KIAD SOUNDING. THIS RAISES AN INTERESTING PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUE.
THE COLUMN DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUPPORT
SNOW REACHING MUCH BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 3500 FEET ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. THE DUAL POL PRODUCTS INDICATE SNOW IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD
OPEN. 1800 UTC NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS...WHERE THE COLUMN IS A BIT COOLER THAN NEARBY NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY.
THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF WET BULB COOLING AVAILABLE...SO A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1600 FEET (WHERE THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD LIE AFTER 0500 UTC. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN SEES THE POTENTIAL...AND
THE MIX WAS PLACED ABOVE 1600 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...AS THE COLUMN COOLS...LOWS COULD EASE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE
BACKED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOMMODATE. ELSEWHERE...LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED OK BASED ON TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EX-SANDY CIRCULATION IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO SW BUT REMAINING RATHER LIGHT. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE CIRCLN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND FROM THE SOUTH IN
THE AFTN. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED UVV TO PRODUCE PCPN SO POPS ARE LOW
EXCEPT FOR SOME CHC IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NW NJ. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING BUT PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS A FEW
DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, AND WE HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS WITH THIS IN MIND. MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY THE WEEKEND, THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCE OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE GFS AND EURO SHOW AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION
AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THROUGH MONDAY, THE EURO
KEEPS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS, AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THIS LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THEN OFF THE COAST, SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE FCST
AT THIS EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS APPEARED TO BE TIED TO THE RAIN BAND EXTENDING
ACROSS DELAWARE INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE RAIN BAND MOVES
NORTH...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS THE KPHL
AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS KMIV.
AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DROPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PUSH WEDNESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1400 UTC
AND 1700 UTC WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION EASES. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT HAS BACKED OFF ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW 35
KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
REPLACED THE GALE WARNING ON THE OCEANFRONT. THE GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN...AND IT COULD
BE CLOSE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING ON DELAWARE BAY...BUT THUS FAR
WIND GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DROP LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SWELL
GENERATED BY SANDY BEGINS TO SORT ITSELF OUT. BASED ON THE
WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR OUR WATERS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW SCA
LEVELS, BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA. THE NEXT MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND THE SCA THRESHOLD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CFW AT 113 PM EXPIRED NJ/DE COASTS. ANY WATER SEEN IN NJ I THINK
WOULD HAVE TO BE RELATED TO BEING TRAPPED BEHIND BARRIERS. AM THINKING
OF CANCELLING THE TIDAL DELAWARE SOON. SENSOR TRACE TRENDS ARE NOT
FAVORING ANY SORT OF TIDAL FLOODING THERE AND ONLY CAMBRIDGE ON
THE CHESAPEAKE IS THE REMAINING SOLID OPTION FOR MINOR AT WORST
OVERNIGHT. MORE CANCELLATION STATEMENTS MAY ENSUE BETWEEN 1230 AM
AND 3 AM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ069>071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ015>019-
021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HAYES 1119P
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HAYES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1119P
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST STATES AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE LAST OF THE BANDS APPEARS TO BE
CLEARING MUCH OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND DELAWARE...AND COULD CLEAR
SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA SHRINKING WITH TIME...BUT THE TREND
APPEARS TO BE ONE OF MORE OR LESS STEADY STATE. BASED ON THIS...THE
EXTENT OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE EAST AND ALLOWED TO
LINGER IN TIME ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE
COLUMN IS IN THE PROCESS OF COOLING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS SEEN
ON THE KIAD SOUNDING. THIS RAISES AN INTERESTING PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUE.
THE COLUMN DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUPPORT
SNOW REACHING MUCH BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 3500 FEET ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. THE DUAL POL PRODUCTS INDICATE SNOW IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD
OPEN. 1800 UTC NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS...WHERE THE COLUMN IS A BIT COOLER THAN NEARBY NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY.
THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF WET BULB COOLING AVAILABLE...SO A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1600 FEET (WHERE THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD LIE AFTER 0500 UTC. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN SEES THE POTENTIAL...AND
THE MIX WAS PLACED ABOVE 1600 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...AS THE COLUMN COOLS...LOWS COULD EASE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE
BACKED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOMMODATE. ELSEWHERE...LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED OK BASED ON TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EX-SANDY CIRCULATION IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO SW BUT REMAINING RATHER LIGHT. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE CIRCLN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND FROM THE SOUTH IN
THE AFTN. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED UVV TO PRODUCE PCPN SO POPS ARE LOW
EXCEPT FOR SOME CHC IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NW NJ. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING BUT PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS A FEW
DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, AND WE HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS WITH THIS IN MIND. MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY THE WEEKEND, THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCE OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE GFS AND EURO SHOW AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION
AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THROUGH MONDAY, THE EURO
KEEPS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS, AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THIS LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THEN OFF THE COAST, SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE FCST
AT THIS EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS APPEARED TO BE TIED TO THE RAIN BAND EXTENDING
ACROSS DELAWARE INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE RAIN BAND MOVES
NORTH...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS THE KPHL
AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS KMIV.
AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DROPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PUSH WEDNESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1400 UTC
AND 1700 UTC WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION EASES. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT HAS BACKED OFF ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW 35
KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
REPLACED THE GALE WARNING ON THE OCEANFRONT. THE GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN...AND IT COULD
BE CLOSE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING ON DELAWARE BAY...BUT THUS FAR
WIND GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DROP LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SWELL
GENERATED BY SANDY BEGINS TO SORT ITSELF OUT. BASED ON THE
WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR OUR WATERS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW SCA
LEVELS, BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA. THE NEXT MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND THE SCA THRESHOLD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AFTER THEIR HIGH TO
EXTREMELY HIGH VALUES MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR CHESAPEAKE
AND DELAWARE BAYS AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER...THIS SITUATION IS
BEING PROLONGED BY CONTINUING SLY WINDS AROUND THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY NOW OVER WRN PA. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THERE IS ALSO LINGERING
HIGH WATER LEFT OVER FROM THE FLOODING TIDES MONDAY EVENING AS THE
WATER IS RATHER SLOW TO DRAIN AWAY. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ069>071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ015>019-
021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HAYES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST STATES AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE LAST OF THE BANDS APPEARS TO BE
CLEARING MUCH OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND DELAWARE...AND COULD CLEAR
SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA SHRINKING WITH TIME...BUT THE TREND
APPEARS TO BE ONE OF MORE OR LESS STEADY STATE. BASED ON THIS...THE
EXTENT OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE EAST AND ALLOWED TO
LINGER IN TIME ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE
COLUMN IS IN THE PROCESS OF COOLING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS SEEN
ON THE KIAD SOUNDING. THIS RAISES AN INTERESTING PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUE.
THE COLUMN DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUPPORT
SNOW REACHING MUCH BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 3500 FEET ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. THE DUAL POL PRODUCTS INDICATE SNOW IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD
OPEN. 1800 UTC NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS...WHERE THE COLUMN IS A BIT COOLER THAN NEARBY NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY.
THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF WET BULB COOLING AVAILABLE...SO A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1600 FEET (WHERE THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD LIE AFTER 0500 UTC. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN SEES THE POTENTIAL...AND
THE MIX WAS PLACED ABOVE 1600 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...AS THE COLUMN COOLS...LOWS COULD EASE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE
BACKED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOMMODATE. ELSEWHERE...LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED OK BASED ON TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EX-SANDY CIRCULATION IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO SW BUT REMAINING RATHER LIGHT. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE CIRCLN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND FROM THE SOUTH IN
THE AFTN. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED UVV TO PRODUCE PCPN SO POPS ARE LOW
EXCEPT FOR SOME CHC IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NW NJ. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING BUT PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS A FEW
DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, AND WE HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS WITH THIS IN MIND. MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY THE WEEKEND, THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCE OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE GFS AND EURO SHOW AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION
AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THROUGH MONDAY, THE EURO
KEEPS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS, AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THIS LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THEN OFF THE COAST, SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE FCST
AT THIS EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS APPEARED TO BE TIED TO THE RAIN BAND EXTENDING
ACROSS DELAWARE INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE RAIN BAND MOVES
NORTH...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS THE KPHL
AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS KMIV.
AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DROPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PUSH WEDNESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1400 UTC
AND 1700 UTC WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION EASES. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT HAS BACKED OFF ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW 35
KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
REPLACED THE GALE WARNING ON THE OCEANFRONT. THE GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN...AND IT COULD
BE CLOSE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING ON DELAWARE BAY...BUT THUS FAR
WIND GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DROP LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SWELL
GENERATED BY SANDY BEGINS TO SORT ITSELF OUT. BASED ON THE
WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR OUR WATERS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW SCA
LEVELS, BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA. THE NEXT MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND THE SCA THRESHOLD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AFTER THEIR HIGH TO
EXTREMELY HIGH VALUES MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR CHESAPEAKE
AND DELAWARE BAYS AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER...THIS SITUATION IS
BEING PROLONGED BY CONTINUING SLY WINDS AROUND THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY NOW OVER WRN PA. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THERE IS ALSO LINGERING
HIGH WATER LEFT OVER FROM THE FLOODING TIDES MONDAY EVENING AS THE
WATER IS RATHER SLOW TO DRAIN AWAY. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ069>071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ015>019-
021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HAYES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW THROUGH KBMG
AND ALMOST TO KHUF. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE 40S AT 00Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOCUS OF THE UPDATE WILL BE ON CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVENING. NAM...OP GFS
AND THE RAP ALL WANT TO MIX OUT LOWER CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THAT DOES STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...AS DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HURRICANE SANDY HAVE BEGUN
TO INTERACT. SO EVEN IF STRATOCU DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER WEST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2012
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE STRONG LOW EXITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA AND STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE INDIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE COOL NORTH FLOW DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
AS THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...HOWEVER THE EVOLUTION AND
DEPARTURE OF THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL HAVE A BIG SAY IN THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW...PRECISE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09Z IND TAF/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
ONGOING TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WEST. TAFS REFLECT WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. AGAIN...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE SANDY TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7-10KT...AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS PUSHING 20KT WITH GUSTS TO
30KT...AND PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF MOISTURE SHIELD TO OUR EAST. MAY SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT
BRIEFLY NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ALLOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. BASES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW THROUGH KBMG
AND ALMOST TO KHUF. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE 40S AT 00Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOCUS OF THE UPDATE WILL BE ON CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVENING. NAM...OP GFS
AND THE RAP ALL WANT TO MIX OUT LOWER CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THAT DOES STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...AS DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HURRICANE SANDY HAVE BEGUN
TO INTERACT. SO EVEN IF STRATOCU DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER WEST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS FIRST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SECOND FROM A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS...GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SANDY THAN THE 12Z
CANADIAN AS IS PREFERRED. THE FORMER BLEND WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE REGIONAL OUTPUT. THE BLEND HAS THE REMNANTS NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH QPF ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD JUST BE RAIN
SHOWERS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER
COORDINATION...ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REGIONAL OUTPUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK AND LEFT ALONE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST AFTER STARTING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE SANDY TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7-10KT...AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS PUSHING 20KT WITH GUSTS TO
30KT...AND PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF MOISTURE SHIELD TO OUR EAST. MAY SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT
BRIEFLY NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ALLOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. BASES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. NW
FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE OVER CWA...ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF H5 RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK AS H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ONLY OCCASIONAL
INCREASES IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
MIXING WE COULD SEE RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAYBE A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
THOUGH WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 15-20KTS. WITH MARGINAL
CONDITIONS AT BEST...RFW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WAA OVER CWA ON EASTERN
EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH IN THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EAST COAST DEPARTS AND THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...WILL CONFINE
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
455 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. NW
FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE OVER CWA...ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF H5 RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK AS H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ONLY OCCASIONAL
INCREASES IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
MIXING WE COULD SEE RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAYBE A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
THOUGH WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 15-20KTS. WITH MARGINAL
CONDITIONS AT BEST...RFW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WAA OVER CWA ON EASTERN
EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH IN THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EAST COAST DEPARTS AND THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...WILL CONFINE
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE LOW OVER NW KS AND SW NE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. NW
FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE OVER CWA...ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF H5 RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK AS H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ONLY OCCASIONAL
INCREASES IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
MIXING WE COULD SEE RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAYBE A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
THOUGH WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 15-20KTS. WITH MARGINAL
CONDITIONS AT BEST...RFW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WAA OVER CWA ON EASTERN
EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH IN THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EAST COAST DEPARTS AND THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...WILL CONFINE
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN OCT 28 2012
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK. WILL HAVE
PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10KTS OR SO AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
WILL VEER TO THE WEST 5-10KTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY BACK TO THE WEST BY
SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1015 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE W.
SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND A HI PRES RDG OVER MN IS
CAUSING STRONG N WINDS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SOLID GALES OVER LK SUP/MI AND SOME WIND ADVY GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE 12Z GRB ROAB INDICATES N WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AS LO AS
2K FT AGL AND WITHIN THE SFC-H875 MIXED LYR. OVER THE W CLOSER TO
THE MN RDG...WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER. THE TREND EARLY THIS AFTN HAS
BEEN FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH SLOWLY FILLING SANDY REMNANTS
IN PA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY TO THE
W THRU THE DAY. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A STABLE TEMP PROFILE MAINLY
BLO 0C...BUT THERE IS AN ELEVATED WARM LYR PRESENT ARND H85 WITH THE
12Z TEMP AT THAT LVL 2C. SO THE PCPN HAS BEEN A MIX...WITH MAINLY SN
AND RA. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER ERN UPR MI HAVE ALSO REPORTED SLEET
WITH THE WBLB BLO THE ELEVATED WARM LYR WELL BLO 0C. VERY DRY AIR
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB ROAB EXPLAINS THE SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD AND THE LIMITED PCPN INTENSITY... BUT MOISTENING OFF LK SUP
HAS LED TO PLENTY OF LO CLDS OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
WINDS AND PCPN COVERAGE/TYPE PLUS POTENTIAL SN AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THRU WED.
TNGT...THE REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNW AND
OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z WED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH PRES FALLS
WEAKENING THE MN RDG AS WELL THRU THE NGT...EXPECT WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. SO PLAN TO LET GOING WIND ADVYS EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED. BUT AS UPR HGTS CONT TO FALL...DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W...WITH THE W EDGE REACHING NEAR THE HURON MTNS
OR SO BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MSTR WL BE SPREADING TO THE
W...LARGER SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION AT H7 ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
SANDY/GENERAL DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY OVERALL.
THE 12Z NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
QPF...WITH AMOUNTS GREATER OVER THE E AND THE HURON MTNS...WHERE
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT/OMEGA/SOME LK ENHANCED COMPONENT WL ENHANCE
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND OFFSET THE MID LVL
DRYING. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP ON THE QPF FOR
THE SCNTRL...WITH LTL PCPN FCST IN THIS AREA...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ALSO MAINTAINING THE DRIER LLVLS. THERE SHOULD BE NO PCPN W OF A
LINE FM BARAGA TO IMT OR SO. GOING POPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. PTYPE WL
BE TRICKY WITH LACK OF LARGER SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MAINLY SN AS THE PTYPE...DZ MAY
DOMINATE AT TIMES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE NEAR SFC LYR. SOME WARM AIR INTRUDING FM THE E WL
ALSO MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LYR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. SO WL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SLEET IN
THAT AREA. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MSTR EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ AND SFC
TEMPS GENERALLY HOLDING ABV FRZG WITH LK SUP MODIFICATION OFFSETTING
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL BE NO MORE THAN A FEW
INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
WED...LO PRES/REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT N INTO WRN QUEBEC
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CORRESPONDING DIMINISHING WINDS OVER UPR
MI. THE DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE E HALF...BUT
PERSISTENT LACK OF SGNFT UPR SUPPORT/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL CUT
BACK ON PCPN AMNTS AWAY FM AREAS THAT PICK UP SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN SLOWLY BACKING FLOW N TO NNW. BUT EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...WEAKENING CYC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING PCPN AMNTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
OUR SLOW MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE BY 00Z
THURSDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW MOVES FROM W PA THIS AFTERNOON TO W NY
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE N PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS W QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND E OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A MIXED BAG OF CHANGING PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
AS TEMPERATURES GO FROM BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT /PARTICULARLY OVER
W AND CENTRAL COUNTIES/ INTO THE 40S MOST AFTERNOONS.
THE RESULT OF THE LOW DRIFTING N FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE N-NW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE FIRST ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE REGION...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ON THURSDAY PUSHING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WIN OUT FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END
FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR COMPRISED OF 850MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -7C
WARMING TO A CWA AVERAGE -2C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MODELS HANDLE THE FCST PRETTY WELL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT
THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT 500MB LOW
PUSHING IN FROM ND/MN. THE MORE WRAPPED UP 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY/.
THE NEXT SFC LOW NEARING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE SET UP TO OUR
NW /BETWEEN S SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR N MANITOBA/ AT 18Z MONDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...SW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND BECOME MORE W TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAN THE 30/12Z ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
SIDE A BIT CLOSER TO THE PERSONALLY AND HPC PREFERRED ECMWF. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE WINDS FROM MONDAY ON IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES
ITS CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO MN AND AN INTENSE LOW OVER PA MOVING
NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KSAW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 25KTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH AT KIWD AND KCMX
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. MOISTURE FLOWING
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BRING BKN CIG TO MVFR LEVELS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF RESIDUAL DRY AIR
WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCT AND/OR VFR.
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW GOING AT KSAW WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTO WED AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
PRECIPIATION BAND GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
EXPECT SOLID N GALES TO 40-45 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY WED MORNING TO NO MORE THAN 30 KTS WED
AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N INTO SE CANADA AND WEAKENS. WAVES AS HI
AS 15-18 FT OVER THE SCENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ005>007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-251-264-
265-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF HAS HELPED STEER
HURRICANE SANDY WESTWARD ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD
AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WRN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ASSOC
WITH THE UPR DIV OF JET MAX HAS EDGED INTO THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY HAVE REACHED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN EAST COAST STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE NORTH WINDS AOA 40 KT
WITHIN MIXED LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FOUR ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THUS...PER COORDINATION WITH
APX HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALGER...DELTA...LUCE
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 09Z TONIGHT FOR
ALGER AND LUCE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER NORTH WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FOR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES HAVE
STARTED THE HEADLINE AT 12Z TUE. ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUE
EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES AT WHICH TIME PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORM OVER WRN
PA.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING FCST AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PCPN
ASSOC WITH EAST COAST STORM STAYS EAST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z TUE. BOTH
GFS AND NAM THEN INDICATE PCPN SPREADING SLOWLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS 850-800 FGEN FORCING INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPR DIVERGENCE OF
STRONG UPR JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO WRN QUEBEC. BOTH
GFS AND PARTICULARLY NAM SNDGS OVER ERN UPR MI WANT TO HOLD ONTO COLD
LAYER FROM SFC TO NEAR 3KFT THRU TUESDAY DESPITE WAA OCCURRING AT 850
MB ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING
THERE WON`T BE SOME MODERATION/WARMING OF NEAR SFC LYR DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY GIVEN COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND NRLY ONSHORE FLOW
OFF RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR (MID TO UPPER 40S TEMPS).
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS FAR EAST TAPERING TO LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC NEAR MQT
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHOW UP
OVER MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BEING THE
RESULT.
THE RETROGRADING SFC LOW MOVING OVER W PA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N HUDSON BAY...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
DOWN THOUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
GOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE E COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
SWING IN FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MQT COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND W QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. THIS IS STILL THE 6TH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...SO WILL
NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH IT QUITE YET...AS THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY A FEW
SMALLER POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BETWEEN -0
TO -4C THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY ON N-NNW WINDS...BEFORE BRIEFLY FALLING
TO AROUND -8C OVER THE W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW
LINGERING ALOFT BEHIND THE THE NEXT 500MB LOW SWINGING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES FROM SATURDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NW FLOW OVERHEAD AT
12Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TO FAR E MN. THE
29/06Z GFS IS INITIALLY ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN THE 19/00Z ECMWF. THE
29/12Z REMAINS AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE 29/12Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. WILL HEDGE THE MID RANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU
MIDDAY TUESDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
HOWEVER... THE RIDGE WILL BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND INTENSE LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT
WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE... POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD
AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ006-007.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
232 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IS IN THE PROCESS
OF PICKING UP SANDY OFF THE EAST COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN
THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AND E OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE LWR LAKES.
SHARP W EDGE OF DENSE CI SHIELD LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER JET
AXIS AND IS VERY SLOWLY EDGING W TOWARD UPPER MI. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO E TX IS
RESULTING IN CLEAR/CALM/CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -5C PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING IS PREVENTING ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS
FROM DEVELOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM AS FCST AREA REMAINS
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOWEVER...
AS POWERFUL STORM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPANDS WESTWARD...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND W
AND CNTRL UPPER MI WILL BE NUDGED W. THIS WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING THICKENING CI SHIELD TO SPREAD
SLOWLY W ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTWARD PUSH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT PCPN EXPANDING W
TOWARD UPPER MI TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...SO PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON TONIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...BY 12Z TUE...950MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 35-40KT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE WATER...WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTS OF 35-40MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO
MUNISING AND POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH EAST OF MUNISING. BEING IN THE
LOW PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH OTHER ENHANCEMENT FACTORS
MISSING...CAA/STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEPENING LOW (SYSTEM IS WEAKENING IN
THIS CASE)...DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO EXTEND MUCH BEYOND THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK REMAINS VERY TRICKY...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
PTYPE AND POPS...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUSED ATTENTION ON
PRECIP/WINDS/TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH WED AND USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS
THEREAFTER.
QUESTION FOR TUE/WED IS NOT IF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT
IS HOW FAR AND TO WHAT EXTENT OF DEPTH THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN ONLY SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER ERN UPPER MI...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASING OUTLIER AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL OF UPPER MI. WILL MAKE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE
PREFERRED MODELS STATED PREVIOUSLY.
EVEN WITH DEEP MOISTURE ONLY BEING DEPICTED OVER AND E OF ALGER AND
DELTA COUNTIES BY FAVORED MODELS...N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 750MB OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI.
SOUNDING SHOW THAT TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
NCENTRAL...BUT THE DGZ WILL BE HIGH AND DRY AT 500-600MB...SO
DRIZZLE IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH
AROUND 00Z WED. DRIZZLE WOULD END WED AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NWLY AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. OF
COURSE...EVEN WITH THE CRANKING N WIND...LOCATIONS A FEW MILES
INLAND SHOULD GET TO OR BELOW FREEZING...SO INCLUDED FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE SFC TEMPS FELL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DURING THIS TIME AS THE SHARP CUT OFF IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
E OF MARQUETTE...AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /12Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD ALREADY BY OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP MAKING SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO PUSH E ON WED AFTERNOON WHILE DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND AND NWLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 875MB
INVERSION TOP TEMPS AROUND -6C...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT NEAR AND E OF MUNISING. AS FAR AS PTYPE OVER
THE E...WITH THE DGZ BEING SATURATED AND TEMP PROFILES OVER ALL BUT
FAR ERN UPPER MI SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW...PTYPE WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT DECIDED BY NEAR SFC TEMPS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER SFC
TEMPS FALL LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SNOW APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
PTYPE FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH THE ERN CWA. COULD SEE AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS OVER NE UPPER MI AWAY FROM
WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS...RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...HIGH DGZ AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW /PROBABLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AS SFC TEMPS INCREASE ON WED/ WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING
UNTIL DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM W TO E LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS CHANGES IN LOCATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMP PROFILES WILL LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN
PTYPE.
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE NOW
MORE FAVORED SCENARIO. THE CHANGES ARE BIGGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL
WHERE SNOW WAS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH NOW HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU
MIDDAY TUESDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
HOWEVER... THE RIDGE WILL BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND INTENSE LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT W
AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD AROUND STORM
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IS IN THE PROCESS
OF PICKING UP SANDY OFF THE EAST COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN
THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AND E OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE LWR LAKES.
SHARP W EDGE OF DENSE CI SHIELD LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER JET
AXIS AND IS VERY SLOWLY EDGING W TOWARD UPPER MI. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO E TX IS
RESULTING IN CLEAR/CALM/CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -5C PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING IS PREVENTING ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS
FROM DEVELOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM AS FCST AREA REMAINS
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOWEVER...
AS POWERFUL STORM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPANDS WESTWARD...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND W
AND CNTRL UPPER MI WILL BE NUDGED W. THIS WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING THICKENING CI SHIELD TO SPREAD
SLOWLY W ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTWARD PUSH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT PCPN EXPANDING W
TOWARD UPPER MI TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...SO PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON TONIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...BY 12Z TUE...950MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 35-40KT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE WATER...WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTS OF 35-40MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO
MUNISING AND POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH EAST OF MUNISING. BEING IN THE
LOW PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH OTHER ENHANCEMENT FACTORS
MISSING...CAA/STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEPENING LOW (SYSTEM IS WEAKENING IN
THIS CASE)...DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO EXTEND MUCH BEYOND THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK REMAINS VERY TRICKY...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
PTYPE AND POPS...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUSED ATTENTION ON
PRECIP/WINDS/TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH WED AND USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS
THEREAFTER.
QUESTION FOR TUE/WED IS NOT IF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT
IS HOW FAR AND TO WHAT EXTENT OF DEPTH THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN ONLY SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER ERN UPPER MI...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASING OUTLIER AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL OF UPPER MI. WILL MAKE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE
PREFERRED MODELS STATED PREVIOUSLY.
EVEN WITH DEEP MOISTURE ONLY BEING DEPICTED OVER AND E OF ALGER AND
DELTA COUNTIES BY FAVORED MODELS...N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 750MB OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI.
SOUNDING SHOW THAT TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
NCENTRAL...BUT THE DGZ WILL BE HIGH AND DRY AT 500-600MB...SO
DRIZZLE IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH
AROUND 00Z WED. DRIZZLE WOULD END WED AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NWLY AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. OF
COURSE...EVEN WITH THE CRANKING N WIND...LOCATIONS A FEW MILES
INLAND SHOULD GET TO OR BELOW FREEZING...SO INCLUDED FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE SFC TEMPS FELL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DURING THIS TIME AS THE SHARP CUT OFF IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
E OF MARQUETTE...AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /12Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD ALREADY BY OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP MAKING SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO PUSH E ON WED AFTERNOON WHILE DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND AND NWLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 875MB
INVERSION TOP TEMPS AROUND -6C...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT NEAR AND E OF MUNISING. AS FAR AS PTYPE OVER
THE E...WITH THE DGZ BEING SATURATED AND TEMP PROFILES OVER ALL BUT
FAR ERN UPPER MI SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW...PTYPE WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT DECIDED BY NEAR SFC TEMPS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER SFC
TEMPS FALL LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SNOW APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
PTYPE FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH THE ERN CWA. COULD SEE AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS OVER NE UPPER MI AWAY FROM
WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS...RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...HIGH DGZ AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW /PROBABLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AS SFC TEMPS INCREASE ON WED/ WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING
UNTIL DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM W TO E LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS CHANGES IN LOCATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMP PROFILES WILL LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN
PTYPE.
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE NOW
MORE FAVORED SCENARIO. THE CHANGES ARE BIGGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL
WHERE SNOW WAS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH NOW HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...
THE RIDGE WILL BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND INTENSE LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT W
AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD AROUND STORM
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
536 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IS IN THE PROCESS
OF PICKING UP SANDY OFF THE EAST COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN
THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AND E OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE LWR LAKES.
SHARP W EDGE OF DENSE CI SHIELD LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER JET
AXIS AND IS VERY SLOWLY EDGING W TOWARD UPPER MI. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO E TX IS
RESULTING IN CLEAR/CALM/CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -5C PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING IS PREVENTING ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS
FROM DEVELOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM AS FCST AREA REMAINS
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOWEVER...
AS POWERFUL STORM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPANDS WESTWARD...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND W
AND CNTRL UPPER MI WILL BE NUDGED W. THIS WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING THICKENING CI SHIELD TO SPREAD
SLOWLY W ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTWARD PUSH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT PCPN EXPANDING W
TOWARD UPPER MI TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...SO PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON TONIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...BY 12Z TUE...950MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 35-40KT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE WATER...WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTS OF 35-40MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO
MUNISING AND POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH EAST OF MUNISING. BEING IN THE
LOW PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH OTHER ENHANCEMENT FACTORS
MISSING...CAA/STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEPENING LOW (SYSTEM IS WEAKENING IN
THIS CASE)...DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO EXTEND MUCH BEYOND THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK REMAINS VERY TRICKY...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
PTYPE AND POPS...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUSED ATTENTION ON
PRECIP/WINDS/TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH WED AND USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS
THEREAFTER.
QUESTION FOR TUE/WED IS NOT IF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT
IS HOW FAR AND TO WHAT EXTENT OF DEPTH THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN ONLY SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER ERN UPPER MI...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASING OUTLIER AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL OF UPPER MI. WILL MAKE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE
PREFERRED MODELS STATED PREVIOUSLY.
EVEN WITH DEEP MOISTURE ONLY BEING DEPICTED OVER AND E OF ALGER AND
DELTA COUNTIES BY FAVORED MODELS...N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 750MB OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI.
SOUNDING SHOW THAT TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
NCENTRAL...BUT THE DGZ WILL BE HIGH AND DRY AT 500-600MB...SO
DRIZZLE IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH
AROUND 00Z WED. DRIZZLE WOULD END WED AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NWLY AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. OF
COURSE...EVEN WITH THE CRANKING N WIND...LOCATIONS A FEW MILES
INLAND SHOULD GET TO OR BELOW FREEZING...SO INCLUDED FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE SFC TEMPS FELL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DURING THIS TIME AS THE SHARP CUT OFF IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
E OF MARQUETTE...AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /12Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD ALREADY BY OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP MAKING SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO PUSH E ON WED AFTERNOON WHILE DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND AND NWLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 875MB
INVERSION TOP TEMPS AROUND -6C...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT NEAR AND E OF MUNISING. AS FAR AS PTYPE OVER
THE E...WITH THE DGZ BEING SATURATED AND TEMP PROFILES OVER ALL BUT
FAR ERN UPPER MI SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW...PTYPE WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT DECIDED BY NEAR SFC TEMPS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER SFC
TEMPS FALL LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SNOW APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
PTYPE FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH THE ERN CWA. COULD SEE AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS OVER NE UPPER MI AWAY FROM
WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS...RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...HIGH DGZ AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW /PROBABLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AS SFC TEMPS INCREASE ON WED/ WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING
UNTIL DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM W TO E LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS CHANGES IN LOCATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMP PROFILES WILL LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN
PTYPE.
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE NOW
MORE FAVORED SCENARIO. THE CHANGES ARE BIGGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL
WHERE SNOW WAS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH NOW HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU TODAY
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND
WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTIER NORTH WINDS AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT W
AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD AROUND STORM
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTEDTHROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
PRIMARY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS SEASONABLY MILD AND FAIRLY
TRANQUIL PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A WEAK 1012MB LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING TWO MAIN PURPOSES AT THIS HOUR...FOR ONE
SEPARATING PRIMARILY EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA FROM PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WEST...AND IS ALSO
SETTING UP A RESPECTABLE TEMP GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS WITHIN MOST
OF THE CWA RANGING FROM ONLY MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S
WEST...WHILE JUST BARELY WEST OF THE CWA LOW-MID 70S PREVAIL AT
SITES SUCH AS NORTH PLATTE/MCCOOK. FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS TODAY
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST VALUES.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION...IN BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND THE DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH/POST-TROPICAL SANDY CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER PA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
CWA AT MID- AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF A MID
LEVEL DECK WAS SKIRTING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE ANOTHER BATCH
OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BLACK HILL REGION WAS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE
HORIZON. THE EASTERN NEBRASKA CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF AN 80+KT 300MB JET STREAK
POSITIONED OVERHEAD.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE BREEZES WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS POST-SUNSET TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE
40S ALL AREAS BY 03Z. FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THINGS GET
SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...AS SEVERAL HIGHER RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ALSO THE HRRR TRY BREAKING OUT WHAT
WOULD LIKELY BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MOST
LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS
FORCING...WHICH IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS APPEARS TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS A BIT CLEARER WHEN EXAMINING
SATURATION ALONG THE 305K ISENTROPIC SFC PER THE 12Z NAM...AND IS
ALSO CAPTURED IN THE NAM BY A BATCH OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
700MB WORKING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BASED ON 12 NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AM FAIRLY DOUBTFUL
THAT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL RESULT...GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP APPEARS TO JUSTIFY AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE...AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS
WORDING POST-MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT WOULD SEEM THE MOST FAVORED AREA
FOR THIS SPRINKLE/LIGHT RAIN IS NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES...DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL BRING THIS SPRINKLE
WORDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS AN OVERTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE.
AGAIN...NOT LOOKING LIKE ALL THAT BIG OF A DEAL...BUT NONETHELESS
A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALONG THESE SAME LINES...SKY
COVER WAS BOOSTED INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
SAME AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT AGAIN
QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...AM NOT
ADVERTISING A TRULY NON-DIURNAL CURVE...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A
FAIRLY EFFICIENT FALL THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...CHANGED LOWS VERY LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE CWA SETTLING BETWEEN 34-39
DEGREES.
FOR THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE VERY MILD HALLOWEEN IN A ROW...AND THE THIRD
TIME IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THAT HALLOWEEN HIGHS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S CWA-WIDE. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER GENERALLY NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BISECT THE CWA...SEPARATING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN THE EAST
FROM WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WERE INCREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS STILL ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 10-14 MPH
MOST AREAS. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES INTO THE CWA...SOME OF THE
WARMER AIR OBSERVED TODAY WEST OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA...AND HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS ROUGHLY 2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST NEARLY ALL AREAS...AND MAYBE NOT EVEN ENOUGH PER THE
NAM/MET SOLUTION. EVEN SO...NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 70S
EAST TO MID-UPPER 70S WEST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TOP 10-TO-15
WARMEST HALLOWEEN ON RECORD FOR MOST SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HWY 281. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN
INTO AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RANGE OF 18-20 PERCENT ACROSS
SOME OF THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY FIRE
DANGER MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW GIVEN THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL SHORT OF CRITICAL
20/25 MPH THRESHOLDS. FOCUSING ON PRECIP/CLOUD TRENDS...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES TO LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME
PERIOD...AS SUBTLE-TO-MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH A STEADY POST-SUNRISE
DEPARTURE OF ANY POTENTIALLY SOLID LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MAIN THEME: AN STRETCH OF PLEASANT AUTUMN WX WILL CONT THRU
FRI WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THEN A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE NICE WX RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAZARDS: NONE FORESEEABLE.
QPF: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN LOOK SCANT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV.
HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS OF SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE
NOV 10-14 TIMEFRAME.
BIG PICTURE: NAO IS NEGATIVE AND WHILE THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL
TEMPORARILY LOWER HGTS IN VICINITY OF GREENLAND OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH THAT HGT ANOMALIES WILL
REMAIN POSITIVE THRU MID-NOV. THIS FAVORS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PAC WILL YIELD A COUPLE OF
DECENT TROFS THAT COULD EVENTUALLY THREATEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POSSIBLE EVENT AROUND NOV 6TH.
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN CASE THEY DECIDE TO COME BACK TO IT.
TEMPS: MODELS ARE NOW DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR UNTIL AFTER
THU-FRI WHICH IS WHY WE STRUGGLED YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR THU.
THE EXTREME DISPARITY WITH 00Z MOS CYCLE HAS VANISHED AND THE 12Z
MET GUIDANCE IS NOW WARMER. FRI`S NOW LOOKING WARMER THAN IT DID
YESTERDAY AS WELL.
SOME TYPE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WED NGT. BELIEVE THE
COOLER AIR NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEAK THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU FRI AND
YANKS THE COOL FRONT SWD.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
WED NGT: WEAK FRONT/TROF PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANCE.
THU: M/SUNNY AND VERY NICE /65-76F/. 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. P-M/CLOUDY /63-76F/. 10 ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW CLOUDS: INCREASED SKY TO M/CLOUDY IN THE FRI NGT-SAT MRNG FCST
AND BELIEVE THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
SAT: M/CLOUDY AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER. AS OF NOW 53-61F AND THIS IS
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.
RAIN: THE PERSISTENT ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF HAS SWEPT THE QUALITY
LOW-LEVEL MSTR WELL S OF THE CONUS. MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT NIGHT:
DOES SYSTEM ENTRAIN GULF MSTR FAST ENUF TO RAIN HERE BEFORE IT EXITS
TO THE E? CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THE FCST IS TOO LOW ON PCPN POTENTIAL.
IT`S STILL CONCEIVABLE IT RAINS HERE BUT BOTTOM LINE IS IT WON`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR .05 QPF OR HIGHER CONT TO
BE OVER FAR ERN KS/NEB.
SUN-TUE: A RETURN TO PLEASANT WX IN DRY NW FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL MON. WE COULD SEE ONE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL /+10F/
TEMPS.
11/6: SOME LIGHT PCPN?
AROUND 11/10: LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES A POSSIBILITY. THIS PER
SEVERAL DAYS OF RUNS FROM THE GFS. THIS TIME FRAME IS APPROACHING AT
THE TAIL END OF THE EC ENSEMBLES AND THERE`S A BIG TROF FCST OVER
THE WRN USA. IF THIS WORKS OUT RIGHT...IT COULD END UP A HEALTHY
PCPN EVENT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL LATE TODAY ON THE NEW JERSEY
COAST...WHILE MORPHING INTO AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY AND COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...YET WILL ALSO PERSIST
IN OUR VICINITY TO CAUSE UNSETTLED CHILLY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...STEADY RAIN FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SPREAD
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD STEUBEN CO NY...BUT HAS BROKEN UP
SOMEWHAT. EARLY RAINFALL OBS FROM LUZERNE CO SHOW .2 TO .4" FELL
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY LINE. WHILE STILL EARLY...IT APPEARS DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH AT THE FRINGE OF OUR RADAR...LIKELY DUE TO
BEAM EFFECTS IN THE MELTING LAYER. JUST FYI. FORECAST TIMING AND
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK. CONTINUE TO HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES WITH KITH AND KPEO UNDER A MILE ATTM. PREVIOUS
AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...OUTER EFFECTS FROM SANDY ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS
LUZERNE CO PA WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN. LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE DOING AN OK JOB CAPTURING THIS RAIN...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE
BEST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS IT MAINLY
CLOSE BUT JUST OUT OF OUR CWA. THINKING THAT THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION LOOKS GOOD (SE TO NW BAND OF RAIN) BUT WILL BUMP IT
ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MEANS RAIN LIKELY
FROM LUZERENE...LACKAWANNA...WYOMING COUNTIES IN NEPA...THEN
MOVING TO THE NW INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
OLD BNDRY CONTS TO BE STALLED OVER WRN NY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND HAS KEPT THE FCST AREA FROM BEING
INVOLVED IN THE PRE RAIN. XPCT THIS BNDRY TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF LGT RAIN HAS PUSHED THRU THE CNTRL
AND SRN ZONES THRU THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NE ZONES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD FAST OR EVEN PUSH SWWRD OVRNGT
LIMITING THE RAINFALL TO THE XTRM SE ZONES THRY THE NEAR TERM. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED YET FILLING LOW PRESSURE...THE LEFTOVERS OF
SANDY...WILL STILL HAUNT US THROUGH HALLOWEEN INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. CHILLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOTHING HEAVY
AND WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL PA TUESDAY NIGHT...TO LAKE ONTARIO BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NAM IS A BIT COLDER WITH SUB-540 DM
1000-500MB THICKNESS LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS...925MB TEMPERATURES EVEN IN THE NAM STAY ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS FOR OUR CWA...AND THUS NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS /UNLIKE POINTS FARTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE IT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH/.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILL WHILE LIFTING FARTHER NORTH ON
THURSDAY TO NEAR MONTREAL. HOWEVER...THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE ENTIRE
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SPOKES
OF VORITICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ENSURE LIKELIHOOD OF
MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY TO TWIN TIERS.
DEEP MOISTURE/SOLID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...COMPELLED ME TO
GENERALLY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RANGE COMPARED TO MODELS...THAT IS
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE BY DAY...AND JUST A TOUCH MILDER BY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. USED HPC GUIDANCE
WITH LTL CHG. HPC FCSTS LOOKED VERY GOOD IN ADVERTISING THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SANDY...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. FCST
TEMPS ARE A LTL WARMER REDUCING THE CHCS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE IN
THE PD (THU NGT/FRI MRNG).
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...TAF PERIOD DOMINATED BY APPROACH OF HURRICANE-NOREASTER
HYBRID. FIRST...AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...A WEAK FRONT MADE ITS WAY
TO KSYR-KITH-KELM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE MINOR
FRONTAL INVERSION FOR IFR OR WORSE CIGS. WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
FLOW FOR KELM...EXPECTING LOW CIG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT IT MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES FOR MVFR CIG AT KSYR AS
LEFTOVERS OF FRONT RETROGRADE BACK WEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INCOMING SYSTEM. WITH FLOW GOING DOWN CAYUGA LAKE...KITH SHOULD
KEEP THEIR LOW CIG UNTIL INCREASING WINDS ALOFT ALLOW STIRRING
LATER THIS MORNING.
THE HURRICANE SANDY-NOREASTER HYBRID WILL MAKE ITS ENTRANCE
TODAY...WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN NJ LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BUT IMPACTS FELT WELL AHEAD OF IT INCLUDING FOR OUR TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS. PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME IFR. STRONGEST GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AND CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN HIGHER SPEEDS...WITH DIRECTION
VEERING NORTHEAST. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50
KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.
WED/THU...MVFR IN SHRA.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA...AND OUR NY COUNTIES BELOW THE
THRUWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PATH OF SANDY THROUGH NJ/SRN PA DURG ITS STGST
PHASE...THE HEAVIEST RAIN (4+" BASIN AVG) SHOULD STAY MAINLY S OF
OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINT TOTALS NEAR 4" ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
BOTTOM LN...WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR
CERTAIN PTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE SHORT-TERM SECTION ABV.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL COME ONSHORE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE ON
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS INTO OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...STEADY RAIN FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SPREAD
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD STEUBEN CO NY...BUT HAS BROKEN UP
SOMEWHAT. EARLY RAINFALL OBS FROM LUZERNE CO SHOW .2 TO .4" FELL
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY LINE. WHILE STILL EARLY...IT APPEARS DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH AT THE FRINGE OF OUR RADAR...LIKELY DUE TO
BEAM EFFECTS IN THE MELTING LAYER. JUST FYI. FORECAST TIMING AND
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK. CONTINUE TO HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES WITH KITH AND KPEO UNDER A MILE ATTM. PREVIOUS
AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...OUTER EFFECTS FROM SANDY ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS
LUZERNE CO PA WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN. LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE DOING AN OK JOB CAPTURING THIS RAIN...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE
BEST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS IT MAINLY
CLOSE BUT JUST OUT OF OUR CWA. THINKING THAT THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION LOOKS GOOD (SE TO NW BAND OF RAIN) BUT WILL BUMP IT
ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MEANS RAIN LIKELY
FROM LUZERENE...LACKAWANNA...WYOMING COUNTIES IN NEPA...THEN
MOVING TO THE NW INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
OLD BNDRY CONTS TO BE STALLED OVER WRN NY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND HAS KEPT THE FCST AREA FROM BEING
INVOLVED IN THE PRE RAIN. XPCT THIS BNDRY TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF LGT RAIN HAS PUSHED THRU THE CNTRL
AND SRN ZONES THRU THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NE ZONES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD FAST OR EVEN PUSH SWWRD OVRNGT
LIMITING THE RAINFALL TO THE XTRM SE ZONES THRY THE NEAR TERM. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LTL DOUBT NOW IN THE TRACK OF SANDY WITH A NJ CST LANDFALL AND A
STALL IN SRN/CNTRL PA. THIS KEEPS THE FCST AREA IN THE RGT FNT
QUAD OF THE STORM...CREATING MORE CONCRN FOR WINDS BUT LESS FOR
RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE VERY STRONG WITH NAM MODEL SNDG FCSTS OF 70 KTS IN THE
UNSTABLE LYR NEAR THE GND DURING THE PK PD AFT 00Z TUE. THIS SHD
TRANSLATE TO 30 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND A SOME GUSTS NEAR OR OVER
60 MPH. WITH THE ELY DIRECTION...TREES THAT HAVE GROWN TO
WITHSTAND WEST WIND MAY BE COMPROMISED BY THIS STRONG EAST FLOW.
LOW BEGINS TO FILL RAPIDLY WITH THE GRADIENT LOOSENING
CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z WED.
PCPN LOOKS TO PEAK OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN CATS AND
POCONOS...WITH SOME SHADOWING EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM...ESP OVER CNTRL
NY. ALSO...THERE/S SCNDRY PCPN PEAK OVER THE WRN ZONES. IN
GNRL...NOT ENUF FCSTD QPF TO CAUSE ANYTHING OTR THAN SOME MINOR
FLOODING..AT WORST. HWVR...WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM...NEVER DEEL
COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE WITH ANY RAINFALL FCST. ALSO...IT/S DFCLT
TO FCST THE AMT OF EXTRA PCPN WILL BE GENERATED BY THE TERRAIN.
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTD.
MON WILL START WITH A CONTD INFLOW OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT NWRD AS SANDY APRCHS. THEN... STEADY
RAIN CONTS THRU TUE AS SANDY STALLS OVER PA. MODELS DO CONT TO
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NRN ZONES BUT IN GNRL...CAT POPS
JUSTIFIED THRU TUE WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS OVER THE PA ZONES
AND UPSLOPE AREAS.
LINGERING LGTR PCPN CONTS THRU WEDS SANDY CONTS TO FILL AND LIFT
NWRD. NOT ENUF COLD AIR AVBL ALOFT...AND CERTAINLY NOT AT THE
SFC...FOR ANY MENTION OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. USED HPC GUIDANCE
WITH LTL CHG. HPC FCSTS LOOKED VERY GOOD IN ADVERTISING THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SANDY...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. FCST
TEMPS ARE A LTL WARMER REDUCING THE CHCS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE IN
THE PD (THU NGT/FRI MRNG).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...TAF PERIOD DOMINATED BY APPROACH OF HURRICANE-NOREASTER
HYBRID. FIRST...AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...A WEAK FRONT MADE ITS WAY
TO KSYR-KITH-KELM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE MINOR
FRONTAL INVERSION FOR IFR OR WORSE CIGS. WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
FLOW FOR KELM...EXPECTING LOW CIG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT IT MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES FOR MVFR CIG AT KSYR AS
LEFTOVERS OF FRONT RETROGRADE BACK WEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INCOMING SYSTEM. WITH FLOW GOING DOWN CAYUGA LAKE...KITH SHOULD
KEEP THEIR LOW CIG UNTIL INCREASING WINDS ALOFT ALLOW STIRRING
LATER THIS MORNING.
THE HURRICANE SANDY-NOREASTER HYBRID WILL MAKE ITS ENTRANCE
TODAY...WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN NJ LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BUT IMPACTS FELT WELL AHEAD OF IT INCLUDING FOR OUR TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS. PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME IFR. STRONGEST GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AND CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN HIGHER SPEEDS...WITH DIRECTION
VEERING NORTHEAST. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50
KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.
WED/THU...MVFR IN SHRA.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA...AND OUR NY COUNTIES BELOW THE
THRUWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PATH OF SANDY THROUGH NJ/SRN PA DURG ITS STGST
PHASE...THE HEAVIEST RAIN (4+" BASIN AVG) SHOULD STAY MAINLY S OF
OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINT TOTALS NEAR 4" ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
BOTTOM LN...WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR
CERTAIN PTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE SHORT-TERM SECTION ABV.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1118 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CIRCULATION
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL...INDICATE
THE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA
HAVE BASICALLY DISSIPATED. WILL NOW INDICATE JUST A CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS THE MAIN OBSCURITIES TO THE STARS AND MOON. WESTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY TYPE OF FALLOUT
TO MIN TEMPS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE 40-45
MIN TEMP RANGE WITH ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS HITTING UPPER 30S.
THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...AS A RESULT NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THRESHOLDS MAY BRIEFLY PEAK
ABOVE MINOR FLOOD FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF
WILMINGTON AND SOUTHWARD TO FORT FISHER. THE TIME-LINE WILL BE IN
THE 1230Z-1400Z WED. THE WILMINGTON TIDE GAGE IN THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD IS 5.5 FT MLLW. ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE LATER SHIFT TO DECIDE
WHETHER AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION OF
FORMER HURRICANE SANDY WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH OF THE UNITED STATES
INTO EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DISCRETE
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY COULD GUST TO 25 MPH. WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE
TO MYRTLE BEACH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ONLY 60 IN THE
LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH.
AS SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST INLAND AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS. UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LESS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED BUT A COLD AIRMASS
WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM MOS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ANTICIPATED
TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHING ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIFT NORTH...REPLACED BY SUBTLE BUT BRIEF RIDGING FOR
THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE PERIOD PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM UPPER
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THIS FEATURE HAVING SOME
IMPACT ON THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE SHORTWAVE INTERACT WITH SURFACE
LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEMS
LIKELY AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COOL
AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MODIFY OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR CLIMO WITH ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION LATER
SUN. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FROST INLAND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH
SCT/BKN CLOUDS 4-6KFT. GENERALLY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...THE
REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS HURRICANE SANDY...SLOWLY TRENDS NORTHWARD.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP TREND OF
FEW/SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE REMNANTS OF SANDY...AND WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESIDE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. WITH AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND
FIELD...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT RANGE MAY BE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOCAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. HERE THE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL RUN
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LOCAL COASTLINE...AND AS A RESULT...A LOWER
RANGE OF SEAS. HOWEVER...SIG SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS ZONE WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGHER THEN THE OTHER MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE LONGER
FETCH. IE. OCEAN CREST PIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 4 FT WAVES ALL
EVENING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS AT 8 FT. PERIODS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE 5 TO 6 SECOND RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND FORMER
HURRICANE SANDY. FORTUNATELY WITH THE SHORT OFFSHORE FETCH...SEA
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY FROM THE LARGE SEAS RECENTLY
OBSERVED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE NC WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW INTO SUN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DROP CLOSE TO 10 KT LATE SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. MOVEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FROM
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SUN. DECREASING WIND AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 27-31 PERCENT ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA TO 30-35
PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS COULD SPELL A TRICKY FIRE WEATHER
DAY FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH SANDY
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER (10-15 MPH)
ON THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE EVEN LOWER...25-30
PERCENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
FIRE WEATHER...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
827 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
3.9U IR SATELLITE PIX SHOWS PRETTY GOOD CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER
THE FCST AREA WITH MID CLOUDS BREAKING UP. DO HAVE HOWEVER A LOWER
CLOUD MVFR DECK MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SW MANTIOBA INTO
NORTHCENTRAL-NORTHEAST ND...INTO THE ROLLA-RUGBY-DEVILS LAKE AREA.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BUT OTHERWISE SEEING TEMPS TAKE A
DIVE IN CLEAR AREAS...ESP IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE SKIES ARE
NOW CLEAR. TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW SPOTS AND
THESE ARE BLO FCST LOWS. WILL NEED TO ADJUST LOWS IN THE FAR EAST
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES....AND ALSO LIKELY ADJUST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
DOWN IN OTHER AREAS AS NDAWN SITES INDICATE TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
IN CLEAR AREA OF ERN ND.
&&
.AVIATION...
TRICKY CLOUD FCST IN THE DEVILS LAKE-GRAND FORKS AREA OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CLOUDS MOVING INTO DVL BASIN BUT DVL OBS SHOWS THE LOWER CIGS
PATCHY IN THE SOUTHERN EDGE. LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWS THESE LOWER
CIGS HANGING IN THE SAME AREA OVERNIGHT AS SFC WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS WILL MAINTAIN VFR AT GFK/FAR/BJI/TVF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH FRI/
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL NAM AND GFS IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR MINOR DIFFERENCES IN FRIDAYS THERMAL
PROFILE...THUS USED A FCST BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH IN WESTERN ONTARIO
EXTENDS FROM WRN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
LONG BAND OF CLOUDS WEST OF RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS DOWN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS AND WILL BE KEY TO TEMP FCST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ALONG RIDGE
AXIS AROUND 2O F AND INTO THE MID TEENS EAST OF AXIS...OVER
EASTERN MN.
TONIGHT...VIS IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO EXTREME
EASTERN ZONES THAT HAVE BEEN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DO NOT
HAVE MUCH FAITH FOR ANY CLEARING TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WESTERN ZONES
COULD SEE SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM ERN MT. CURRENT MIN T GRID HAS FAR ERN ZONES A GOOD 10 DEG
COLDER THAN THE VALLEY...BUT WITH LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS NOW
FURTHER EAST...MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP BEFORE PUSHING OUT FINAL
FCST.
TOMORROW...NW FLOW PATTERN WITH A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN VALLEY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
BY NOONTIME. MODELS ARE A BIT DRIER FOR THIS FCST AND ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. THUS HAVE REMOVED
CHANCE POPS AND WENT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT TO SEE MORE
SOLAR FOR SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE 50S FROM FARGO SOUTH.
TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
PUSH INTO AREA FROM NW AND ALLOW COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SINK
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR BUT
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
FRIDAY...DAY WILL START BELOW ZERO ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA. UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN
ZONES BY NOONTIME. GFS MORE BULLISH THAN NAM WITH MOISTURE...AND
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE THU NIGHT HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
FRI MORNING (LEANING TOWARD DRIER NAM). THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING SNOW IN
THE AM WITH WET BULB TEMPS RISING ENOUGH IN THE AFTN HOURS FOR
RAIN. PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH EASTERN ND WITH LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LONG TERM... /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE/
A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AROUND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO GET
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THESE CHANCES AFTER WATCHING THE SYSTEM TODAY DRY
UP AS IT MOVED EAST. THIS SYSTEM FRI NIGHT/SAT WILL ALSO DEAL WITH A
DRY EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY SHOULD BE
A DECENT DAY OVERALL. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY VERY LOW PCPN
CHANCES UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA. AT THIS POINT THIS SYSTEM WOULD AFFECT MOSTLY OUR
NORTHEAST FA. PRETTY MUCH LEFT GUIDANCE TEMPS AS IS OR SLIGHTLY CUT
THEM AS THERE TENDS TO BE A LOT OF CLOUDS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BEGIN MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AND INTO
CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR 630 PM UPDATE...SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO POP FIELDS FOR NEXT 6
HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RUC FORECAST. 18Z RUN OF GFS
COMING IN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BELIEF THAT AIRMASS IS TOO WARM FOR
SNOW TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR EXTREME SW PART OF AREA WHERE TEMPS
THE CLOSEST TO POSSIBLY HAVING SOME SNOW.
UNLESS BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN OVER LAKE AND GEAUGA
PERSISTS...THE RAIN OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
FLOODING ISSUES AT BAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY BE ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY AREAS OF LOCALLY PERSISTENT HEAVIER
RAIN. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A HANDFUL OF RIVERS.
FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK IN LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING INTO THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES START COOLING FRIDAY AT 850 MB BUT THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SEEMS TOO WARM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET SNOW. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION SNOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT IS CHANCE POPS.
AT THIS TIME THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMPT
A NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. EVEN THROUGH THE GROUND IS SATURATED THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY JUST PROMPT A NEED FOR FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
NOT WARNINGS. HOWEVER...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR A FEW
RIVERS AND SOME ARE FALLING.
USED A MIX OF GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ECMWF MOVES A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND
THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HPC
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO
DISAGREE AS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW THIS FAR OUT.
FOR FORECAST WENT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW AND THEN AGAIN
ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR KYNG WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS
THAT ARE STILL GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BELIEVE ALL LOCATIONS WILL BECOME IFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER EASTERN TAF SITES ARE UNDER THE LOW WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE
DROPPING TO MVFR THEN IFR BY SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT ALL SITES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MOST AREAS...LINGERING
SATURDAY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
ANGRY LAKE BEGINNING TO SETTLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A GALE WARNING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE WESTERN HALF...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EAST. REMNANT LOW ACROSS WESTERN PA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING OUT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY ONWARD. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT THE
EAST HALF CAN GO WITHOUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT WINDS COME
AROUND TO THE WNW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PICK UP. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY GENERALLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD TO 30 KNOTS IN THERE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND RELAXING THE WINDS AND VEERING THEM TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>146-
162>166.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
615 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AS OF 21Z WITH
SIGHTS ON SOUTHERN PA LATER TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON TUESDAY...THEN
LIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATL LOOP SHOWING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY
ONLY ARND 30 OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ALREADY FALLING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA AS THE DEEP...MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LATEST RECON INDICATES THAT
THE DEEPENING HAS LEVELED OFF AT 940MB. ALL MDL DATA CONTINUES TO
TRACK THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PA OVERNIGHT.
PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHERN NJ THROUGH SERN PA AND
INDICATIONS ARE THE STORM IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE...BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 30-40 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE. WITH GROUNDS BECOMING VERY
SATURATED...WE ARE ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF TREES BEGINNING TO
BE UPROOTED AS SOILS LOOSEN AND WINDS INCREASE. MDL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS REMNANTS OF SANDY PASS DIRECTLY OVR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT GUSTS LATER TUE AM BTWN 40-50
MPH...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST BEHIND THE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH
WE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AFTER
2AM...WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING GOING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND ASSOC SUSCEPTIBILITY OF TREES TO TOPPLE.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO EASTERN PA AT
22Z AND LATEST NAMPARA AND RAP INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. STILL...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALL MDL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN PA...WHERE TOTALS BY TUES NIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 3-6
INCH RANGE. ACROSS NORTHERN PA...ENSEMBLE AND OPER RUNS BOTH
INDICATE TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE.
WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
LAURELS...WHERE WEB CAMS ALREADY SHOWING A LIGHT ACCUM AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER AIR
ACCOMPANYING APPROACH OF SANDY WILL CHANGE ANY SNOW BACK TO RAIN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD GO BACK TO
SNOW ON TUESDAY...AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE FILLING LOW.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL RATES DECREASING
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF GRADUALLY FILLING...POST-TROPICAL STORM
SANDY WILL BE DRIFTING RIGHT THRU CENTRAL PA.. RISING PRESSURE IN
THE CORE WILL SIGNAL THE STORM BEGINNING TO UNWIND...DIMINISHING
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL RELATIVELY STRONG WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS - DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. WE COULD ALSO SEE THE AREA OF WET SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EXPAND AS COLD AIR GETS RAPIDLY DRAWN INTO
THE CIRCULATION OF THE BY-THEN FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE THE SNOW ACCUMULATE...BUT
SOME GRASSY HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE A SLUSHY COATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT REMNANTS OF SANDY SPIN OVER
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NWD INTO NRN
NY STATE BY FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SANDY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDS ON WED...WITH PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A TYPICAL...DEEPENING
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...PSBLY
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS...RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THIS WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD THE NJ COAST...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION TO THEN MOVE OVER SRN PA OVERNIGHT. THE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
AND THE RAIN WILL LIMIT VISBYS EVEN WHERE THE CIGS ARE AOA 1KFT.
BUT THE BIGGEST TROUBLE IS THE WIND. THE NRLY WINDS WILL BE
RIPPING ALONG JUST ALOFT AND MIX DOWN 50KT GUSTS AT MANY TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL EVENING LONG. AS THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION NEARS AND IT PASSES FROM E-W ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE
STATE TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BACK A LITTLE AT FIRST...THEN VEER
TO THE NE/E LATER TONIGHT. THEY WILL ALSO SLACKEN AS THE STORM
BEGINS TO FILL...FRICTION INCREASES AND GRADIENT RELAXES. WIND
SHEAR IS A CONCERN AT FIRST...WITH MAINLY DIRECTIONAL CHANGES. BUT
MECHANICAL MIXING AND THE ASSOCD GUSTS WILL BE JUST AS STRONG AS
THE TOP OF THE LLWS LAYER/2KFT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
LLWS...BUT THE FCSTS OF 40-50KT GUSTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH BY
THEMSELVES.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE SWRN PART OF THE
STATE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD/18Z TUES. THUS...THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER A BIT MORE. THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH
ONLY SLOWLY TUES AND EARLY WED. RAIN AND FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES...WITH IMPROVEMENT TUES NIGHT AND
WED. SOME SN MAY MIX IN TONIGHT VCNTY JST...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT - AS THE ELEVATION AT THE TERMINAL MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE
FOR KBFD/KJST TUES NIGHT AS COLD AIR WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE
STORM AND DROPS THE FZG LEVEL DOWN TO LESS THAN 2KFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...BREEZY. MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR
CENTRAL AND EAST.
FRI...MVFR -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...BCMG VFR EAST.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM HUDSON BAY...ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE SANDY HAS MADE THE
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OVER FAR EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL OHIO. AS SANDY MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS CIRRUS WELL AS IT STANDS
CURRENTLY...SO WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. DELTA T/S OF 13C
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS AT 925-900MB OF 40-45 KTS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER DOOR COUNTY...AND TIMING OF THE START
OF THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AT 06Z. LOOKED AT POSSIBLY EXPANDING
THE ADVISORY OVER THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE TOO NNW FOR MY LIKING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER BL WINDS.
TUESDAY...SANDY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST BUT CIRRUS
SHOULD COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEFT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE IN CASE THE DRY
AIR HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE MODELS SHOW. MAX WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (UP TO AROUND 900MB) WILL STAY RELATIVELY
STEADY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AT 30 KTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO 40-45 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. TAKING 80 PCT OF
THESE VALUES YIELDS WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND 35 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. DOOR COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KTS. EVEN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER...SO WILL KEEP
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
EXIT OF "SANDY" WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SANDY TO CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS
NORTH THROUGH PA DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SLOWLY TUE NIGHT AND WED. CIRRUS SHIELD TO PULL EAST
WED MORNING...GIVEN WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR THE TUE NIGHT PERIOD. CONTINUED ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER THE FAR EAST...AS DEEPER MOISTURE STILL RATHER SPARSE
ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
DRIER/LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN LATER WED...WITH WIND BACKING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT CENTRAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
MANY QUESTIONS LINGER IN THE LATER PERIODS AS PATTERN EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE. EC STRONGER WITH SHORT WAVE EXITING GULF
OF AK AND DROPPING INTO WI UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE THU
TIME FRAME WHILE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH...LIKEWISE WITH SYSTEM LATER PART OF WEAK GFS FURTHER NORTH
WITH SYSTEM...MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN FOR AREA. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE GOING FOR A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS GOING WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE GOOD FLYING
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF SANDY WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WINDS WILL ONLY GET STRONGER
ON TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE FROM THE FOX VALLEY
ON EAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR OVER DOOR
COUNTY ON TUESDAY.
MPC
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT. AGREE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THOUGHTS THAT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DOOR
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUST BUT COVERAGE/FREQUENCY WILL NOT
BE THERE TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE. NNW WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STRONGER NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORELINE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ022.
&&
$$
MPC/TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TROUGH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PHASE
PROCESS WITH SANDY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SANDY
TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORELINE BY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
TROUGHS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS IN THE
CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.
29.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 28.21Z SREF ALL IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. A COUPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. A FEW MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TROUGH COULD SKIRT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURE
PRETTY STATIC TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 3-5C RANGE WITH SOME
MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 4-8C RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING SOME INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
AGAIN IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEEN READING IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY
AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED A BIT MORE FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE NORTHWEST WIND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY FILLING AND MOVING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING
FOR OUR AREA. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE SFC-700MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED SLOWLY WEST THRU TONIGHT/TUE AS
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY MOVE INTO WESTERN PA. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
SANDY WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10-15KTS TUE.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCT-BKN080-120 CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
OTHERWISE A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS GOING TO CONTINUE PROVIDING THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU TUE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TROUGH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PHASE
PROCESS WITH SANDY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SANDY
TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORELINE BY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
TROUGHS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS IN THE
CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.
29.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 28.21Z SREF ALL IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. A COUPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. A FEW MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TROUGH COULD SKIRT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURE
PRETTY STATIC TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 3-5C RANGE WITH SOME
MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 4-8C RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING SOME INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
AGAIN IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEEN READING IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY
AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED A BIT MORE FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE NORTHWEST WIND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY FILLING AND MOVING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING
FOR OUR AREA. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
600 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DUE TO DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE. THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE IS A BAND OF
ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHICH LOOKS TO
AFFECT KRST BETWEEN 16-03Z. ALSO WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY...PLAN ON WIND SPEEDS TO STAY UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TROUGH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PHASE
PROCESS WITH SANDY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SANDY
TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORELINE BY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
TROUGHS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS IN THE
CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.
29.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 28.21Z SREF ALL IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. A COUPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. A FEW MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TROUGH COULD SKIRT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURE
PRETTY STATIC TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 3-5C RANGE WITH SOME
MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 4-8C RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING SOME INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
AGAIN IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEEN READING IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY
AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED A BIT MORE FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE NORTHWEST WIND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY FILLING AND MOVING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING
FOR OUR AREA. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM DIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
DROPS IN VISIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FROST MELTS AND BRINGS
SOME HAZE IN AS A RESULT...BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF SEEING ANY
LOWERED VIS IS SO LOW THAT IT IS NOT WORTH PUTTING IN THE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SPRAWLING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO WISCONSIN TO HUDSON
BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER MINNESOTA
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS
STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS IT RUNS INTO
DRIER AIR. IN ADDITION...LAKE CLOUDS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER N-C
TO SW WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL
BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA...AND ANTICIPATE THEM DISSIPATING/THINNING AS
THEY APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL STILL HAVE BRISK NORTH WINDS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP COMPARED
TO FARTHER WEST. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE SHORELINE...THOUGH
DO TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THEM
CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE. IN THE END...WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THOUGH WITH LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOESNT MOVE MUCH ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SANDY MOVES EAST...WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE MORE GUSTY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. PERHAPS A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS COULD POP UP OVER N-C
WISCONSIN THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ANTICIPATE
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS
READINGS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AGAIN THE AFFECTS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ARE THE FOCUS
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE SAME TRENDS BRINGING
SANDY INLAND OVER NJ LATE MONDAY AFTN...THEN HAVE IT MEANDER INTO
WEST/CENTRAL MD/PA. MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS...THEN PCPN CHANCES
OVER CWA AS "SANDY" PUSHES WEST .
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER WI INTO TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND "SANDY"
TO TIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
WIND ADVISORY OVER DOOR CTY IN THE GRIDS AND THAT IS NOT REACHED
UNTIL 12Z TUE..THUS WILL PASS OFF ANY HEADLINES TO NEXT SHIFT.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS/CLOUDS THROUGH THE TUE TO WED PERIOD AS
BOTH EC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS RATHER DRY FROM 850-500 MB...WHILE
ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN ZONES.
"SANDY" TO EXIT SLOWLY WED NIGHT...THU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS EC
LATER PERIODS WITH SLOWER SOLUTION WITH GFS BEING TO PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN CURRENT PATTERN IN THE ATLANTIC. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS
WARMING TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR LATER HALF OF WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...GOOD FLYING WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS...WHERE SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME AT MTW AND SUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RDM
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TUE MORNING ON THE LAKE. WAVES WILL LIKELY HIT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER MON AFTN...MAY NEED TO ISSUE SEPARATE SCA
IF START OF GALE PUSHED OFF LATER INTO MON NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
450 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2012
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The far reaches of the remnants of Sandy will continue to provide
the local area with breezy conditions today. Expect frequent gusts
up to 25 mph for most locations. Otherwise, today will be slightly
warmer than yesterday with high temperatures reaching the 70
degree mark area wide. No rain is expected today.
The continued strong winds, now shifting to a more westerly
direction will increase surf along westward facing Panhandle
beaches. The elevated winds and increased surf will create
dangerous rip current conditions along Bay and Gulf counties.
Reference our Coastal Hazard Message for more information.
Overnight, a piece of shortwave energy will rotate around the base
of the large eastern U.S. low pressure and may generate scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two over our coastal
waters. Land areas should remain dry with clouds clearing, and
lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40s across Alabama and
Georgia, and near 50 degrees across inland areas of north Florida.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...
Through the end of the week the east coast trough will gradually
pull north, and surface high pressure will build into the region.
The main effect from this will be a gradual warming trend with
both afternoon and overnight temperatures. Expect highs to climb
through the middle and upper 70s, with overnight low slowly
climbing to the 50 degree mark by Friday night. No rain is
expected both Thursday and Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Wednesday]...
The latest available GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement,
showing the next cold front passage (albeit slow) Sunday night and
Monday. The synoptic low level flow leading up to this frontal
passage does not look very conducive for a major influx of deep
layer moisture and/or instability, so the PoP for this period
(20-30%) is not that far above climatology. Temperatures will be
well above average through Sunday, especially during the daytime
when highs will reach the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will return
to near average behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday, with
Monday being somewhat of a transition day.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 09Z Wednesday]...
Low level wind shear magnitudes were approaching significant levels
at KVLD, KTLH, and KABY as surface wind speeds dropped below 5 KT
and winds aloft remained rather strong. However, the latest RAP and
local WRF forecast the nocturnal jet to actually weaken a bit
through dawn, which should limit this threat. Otherwise we expect
unlimited vis and cigs, with west-northwest winds increasing to 8 to
13 KT by this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong winds generated by the pressure difference between the
remnants of Sandy and high pressure in the Gulf will diminish
gradually as what was Sandy weakens and moves north. However,
Cautionary conditions are expected to continue through tonight
before winds and seas go calm by Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
This will be one of those days when conditions will be close to our
various local Red Flag criteria. After coordinating with our
surrounding offices, we decided to drop the watches for GA & AL and
keep the warning for all our FL zones for today. The modest
moistening trend should prevent AL from meeting critical conditions,
and the fuel moisture is not quite low enough in south GA. We will
issue a Fire Wx Watch for all our FL counties for Thursday, as
conditions will be similar to today.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Since there has been no heavy rain in our region for several
weeks, and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 49 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 72 58 74 57 78 / 0 10 0 0 0
Dothan 71 45 73 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 70 44 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 69 47 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 69 53 76 48 78 / 0 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 72 59 74 57 76 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Bay and Gulf
county beaches.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM EDT /Noon CDT/ this afternoon to
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for all of North Florida.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for all of North Florida.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
121 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE THROUGH EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
REMNANT LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE TRIED TO TRIM POP BACK IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS WHERE PSBL AND GRADUALLY RAMP THEM BACK UP AS
NEXT BAND OF SHRA ROTATES IN THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE GULF
OF MAINE. SO FAR GUIDANCE IS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SECONDARY
PEAK IN SHRA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE LOT...BRINGING
ANOTHER HEAVY BAND THRU BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. ATTM KBOX HAS MWS OUT
FOR TSRA ABOUT TO PUSH INTO NARRAGANSETT BAY...WHICH MATCHES THE
HRRR DEPICTION NICELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW...OR SANDY REMNANTS...IS ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS TUE EVENING.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ME AND
NORTHERN NH MOUNTAINS AS OF 1030 PM. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST ALL NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE...AND
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. AS COLDER AIR IS INTRODUCED TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM...COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY WILL HAVE MIGRATED INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF NH AND MAINE WITH ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME WITH NO REAL FOCUS OR FORCING
MECHANISM BESIDES OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FILL AND MOVE EAST...DRIFTING OVER NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF VFR IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR WED NIGHT
IN CEILINGS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KHIE AND KLEB.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE AND
THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALMOST
GUARANTEE AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MIGHT BE REACHED SUNDAY MORNING
AND SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THAT COULD EXACERBATE ANY
ISSUES FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED TIL 12Z.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
223 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE W.
SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND A HI PRES RDG OVER MN IS
CAUSING STRONG N WINDS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SOLID GALES OVER LK SUP/MI AND SOME WIND ADVY GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE 12Z GRB ROAB INDICATES N WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AS LO AS
2K FT AGL AND WITHIN THE SFC-H875 MIXED LYR. OVER THE W CLOSER TO
THE MN RDG...WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER. THE TREND EARLY THIS AFTN HAS
BEEN FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH SLOWLY FILLING SANDY REMNANTS
IN PA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY TO THE
W THRU THE DAY. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A STABLE TEMP PROFILE MAINLY
BLO 0C...BUT THERE IS AN ELEVATED WARM LYR PRESENT ARND H85 WITH THE
12Z TEMP AT THAT LVL 2C. SO THE PCPN HAS BEEN A MIX...WITH MAINLY SN
AND RA. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER ERN UPR MI HAVE ALSO REPORTED SLEET
WITH THE WBLB BLO THE ELEVATED WARM LYR WELL BLO 0C. VERY DRY AIR
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB ROAB EXPLAINS THE SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD AND THE LIMITED PCPN INTENSITY... BUT MOISTENING OFF LK SUP
HAS LED TO PLENTY OF LO CLDS OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
WINDS AND PCPN COVERAGE/TYPE PLUS POTENTIAL SN AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THRU WED.
TNGT...THE REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNW AND
OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z WED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH PRES FALLS
WEAKENING THE MN RDG AS WELL THRU THE NGT...EXPECT WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. SO PLAN TO LET GOING WIND ADVYS EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED. BUT AS UPR HGTS CONT TO FALL...DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W...WITH THE W EDGE REACHING NEAR THE HURON MTNS
OR SO BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MSTR WL BE SPREADING TO THE
W...LARGER SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION AT H7 ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
SANDY/GENERAL DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY OVERALL.
THE 12Z NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
QPF...WITH AMOUNTS GREATER OVER THE E AND THE HURON MTNS...WHERE
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT/OMEGA/SOME LK ENHANCED COMPONENT WL ENHANCE
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND OFFSET THE MID LVL
DRYING. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP ON THE QPF FOR
THE SCNTRL...WITH LTL PCPN FCST IN THIS AREA...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ALSO MAINTAINING THE DRIER LLVLS. THERE SHOULD BE NO PCPN W OF A
LINE FM BARAGA TO IMT OR SO. GOING POPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. PTYPE WL
BE TRICKY WITH LACK OF LARGER SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MAINLY SN AS THE PTYPE...DZ MAY
DOMINATE AT TIMES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE NEAR SFC LYR. SOME WARM AIR INTRUDING FM THE E WL
ALSO MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LYR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. SO WL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SLEET IN
THAT AREA. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MSTR EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ AND SFC
TEMPS GENERALLY HOLDING ABV FRZG WITH LK SUP MODIFICATION OFFSETTING
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL BE NO MORE THAN A FEW
INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
WED...LO PRES/REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT N INTO WRN QUEBEC
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CORRESPONDING DIMINISHING WINDS OVER UPR
MI. THE DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE E HALF...BUT
PERSISTENT LACK OF SGNFT UPR SUPPORT/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL CUT
BACK ON PCPN AMNTS AWAY FM AREAS THAT PICK UP SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN SLOWLY BACKING FLOW N TO NNW. BUT EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...WEAKENING CYC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING PCPN AMNTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
OUR SLOW MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE BY 00Z
THURSDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW MOVES FROM W PA THIS AFTERNOON TO W NY
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE N PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS W QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND E OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A MIXED BAG OF CHANGING PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
AS TEMPERATURES GO FROM BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT /PARTICULARLY OVER
W AND CENTRAL COUNTIES/ INTO THE 40S MOST AFTERNOONS.
THE RESULT OF THE LOW DRIFTING N FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE N-NW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE FIRST ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE REGION...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ON THURSDAY PUSHING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WIN OUT FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END
FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR COMPRISED OF 850MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -7C
WARMING TO A CWA AVERAGE -2C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MODELS HANDLE THE FCST PRETTY WELL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT
THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT 500MB LOW
PUSHING IN FROM ND/MN. THE MORE WRAPPED UP 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY/.
THE NEXT SFC LOW NEARING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE SET UP TO OUR
NW /BETWEEN S SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR N MANITOBA/ AT 18Z MONDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...SW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND BECOME MORE W TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAN THE 30/12Z ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
SIDE A BIT CLOSER TO THE PERSONALLY AND HPC PREFERRED ECMWF. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE WINDS FROM MONDAY ON IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES
ITS CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO MN AND AN INTENSE LOW OVER WRN PA MOVING
NW TO LAKE ERIE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KSAW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 25KTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH AT KIWD AND KCMX
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. MOISTURE FLOWING OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BRING BKN CIG TO MVFR LEVELS AT CMX/IWD
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF RESIDUAL DRY AIR
WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCT AND/OR VFR AT CMX WHERE NRLY FLOW DOES NOT
FAVOR LOWER CIGS.
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW GOING AT KSAW WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTO WED AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PCPN BANDS WEAKEN. DO NOT EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 00Z/THU.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
EXPECT SOLID N GALES TO 40-45 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY WED MORNING TO NO MORE THAN 30 KTS WED
AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N INTO SE CANADA AND WEAKENS. WAVES AS HI
AS 15-18 FT OVER THE SCENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-248-251-
264-265-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS LIMITED TO MID AND HIGH LEVELS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BUT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
PRIMARY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS SEASONABLY MILD AND FAIRLY
TRANQUIL PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A WEAK 1012MB LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING TWO MAIN PURPOSES AT THIS HOUR...FOR ONE
SEPARATING PRIMARILY EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA FROM PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WEST...AND IS ALSO
SETTING UP A RESPECTABLE TEMP GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS WITHIN MOST
OF THE CWA RANGING FROM ONLY MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S
WEST...WHILE JUST BARELY WEST OF THE CWA LOW-MID 70S PREVAIL AT
SITES SUCH AS NORTH PLATTE/MCCOOK. FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS TODAY
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST VALUES.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION...IN BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND THE DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH/POST-TROPICAL SANDY CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER PA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
CWA AT MID- AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF A MID
LEVEL DECK WAS SKIRTING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE ANOTHER BATCH
OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BLACK HILL REGION WAS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE
HORIZON. THE EASTERN NEBRASKA CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF AN 80+KT 300MB JET STREAK
POSITIONED OVERHEAD.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE BREEZES WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS POST-SUNSET TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE
40S ALL AREAS BY 03Z. FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THINGS GET
SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...AS SEVERAL HIGHER RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ALSO THE HRRR TRY BREAKING OUT WHAT
WOULD LIKELY BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MOST
LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS
FORCING...WHICH IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS APPEARS TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS A BIT CLEARER WHEN EXAMINING
SATURATION ALONG THE 305K ISENTROPIC SFC PER THE 12Z NAM...AND IS
ALSO CAPTURED IN THE NAM BY A BATCH OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
700MB WORKING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BASED ON 12 NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AM FAIRLY DOUBTFUL
THAT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL RESULT...GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP APPEARS TO JUSTIFY AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE...AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS
WORDING POST-MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT WOULD SEEM THE MOST FAVORED AREA
FOR THIS SPRINKLE/LIGHT RAIN IS NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES...DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL BRING THIS SPRINKLE
WORDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS AN OVERTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE.
AGAIN...NOT LOOKING LIKE ALL THAT BIG OF A DEAL...BUT NONETHELESS
A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALONG THESE SAME LINES...SKY
COVER WAS BOOSTED INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
SAME AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT AGAIN
QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...AM NOT
ADVERTISING A TRULY NON-DIURNAL CURVE...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A
FAIRLY EFFICIENT FALL THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...CHANGED LOWS VERY LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE CWA SETTLING BETWEEN 34-39
DEGREES.
FOR THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE VERY MILD HALLOWEEN IN A ROW...AND THE THIRD
TIME IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THAT HALLOWEEN HIGHS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S CWA-WIDE. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER GENERALLY NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BISECT THE CWA...SEPARATING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN THE EAST
FROM WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WERE INCREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS STILL ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 10-14 MPH
MOST AREAS. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES INTO THE CWA...SOME OF THE
WARMER AIR OBSERVED TODAY WEST OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA...AND HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS ROUGHLY 2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST NEARLY ALL AREAS...AND MAYBE NOT EVEN ENOUGH PER THE
NAM/MET SOLUTION. EVEN SO...NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 70S
EAST TO MID-UPPER 70S WEST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TOP 10-TO-15
WARMEST HALLOWEEN ON RECORD FOR MOST SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HWY 281. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN
INTO AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RANGE OF 18-20 PERCENT ACROSS
SOME OF THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY FIRE
DANGER MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW GIVEN THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL SHORT OF CRITICAL
20/25 MPH THRESHOLDS. FOCUSING ON PRECIP/CLOUD TRENDS...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES TO LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME
PERIOD...AS SUBTLE-TO-MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH A STEADY POST-SUNRISE
DEPARTURE OF ANY POTENTIALLY SOLID LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MAIN THEME: AN STRETCH OF PLEASANT AUTUMN WX WILL CONT THRU
FRI WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THEN A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE NICE WX RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAZARDS: NONE FORESEEABLE.
QPF: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN LOOK SCANT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV.
HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS OF SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE
NOV 10-14 TIMEFRAME.
BIG PICTURE: NAO IS NEGATIVE AND WHILE THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL
TEMPORARILY LOWER HGTS IN VICINITY OF GREENLAND OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH THAT HGT ANOMALIES WILL
REMAIN POSITIVE THRU MID-NOV. THIS FAVORS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PAC WILL YIELD A COUPLE OF
DECENT TROFS THAT COULD EVENTUALLY THREATEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POSSIBLE EVENT AROUND NOV 6TH.
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN CASE THEY DECIDE TO COME BACK TO IT.
TEMPS: MODELS ARE NOW DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR UNTIL AFTER
THU-FRI WHICH IS WHY WE STRUGGLED YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR THU.
THE EXTREME DISPARITY WITH 00Z MOS CYCLE HAS VANISHED AND THE 12Z
MET GUIDANCE IS NOW WARMER. FRI`S NOW LOOKING WARMER THAN IT DID
YESTERDAY AS WELL.
SOME TYPE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WED NGT. BELIEVE THE
COOLER AIR NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEAK THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU FRI AND
YANKS THE COOL FRONT SWD.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
WED NGT: WEAK FRONT/TROF PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANCE.
THU: M/SUNNY AND VERY NICE /65-76F/. 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. P-M/CLOUDY /63-76F/. 10 ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW CLOUDS: INCREASED SKY TO M/CLOUDY IN THE FRI NGT-SAT MRNG FCST
AND BELIEVE THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
SAT: M/CLOUDY AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER. AS OF NOW 53-61F AND THIS IS
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.
RAIN: THE PERSISTENT ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF HAS SWEPT THE QUALITY
LOW-LEVEL MSTR WELL S OF THE CONUS. MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT NIGHT:
DOES SYSTEM ENTRAIN GULF MSTR FAST ENUF TO RAIN HERE BEFORE IT EXITS
TO THE E? CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THE FCST IS TOO LOW ON PCPN POTENTIAL.
IT`S STILL CONCEIVABLE IT RAINS HERE BUT BOTTOM LINE IS IT WON`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR .05 QPF OR HIGHER CONT TO
BE OVER FAR ERN KS/NEB.
SUN-TUE: A RETURN TO PLEASANT WX IN DRY NW FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL MON. WE COULD SEE ONE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL /+10F/
TEMPS.
11/6: SOME LIGHT PCPN?
AROUND 11/10: LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES A POSSIBILITY. THIS PER
SEVERAL DAYS OF RUNS FROM THE GFS. THIS TIME FRAME IS APPROACHING AT
THE TAIL END OF THE EC ENSEMBLES AND THERE`S A BIG TROF FCST OVER
THE WRN USA. IF THIS WORKS OUT RIGHT...IT COULD END UP A HEALTHY
PCPN EVENT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CIRCULATION WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL...INDICATE
THE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA
HAVE BASICALLY DISSIPATED. WILL NOW INDICATE JUST A CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS THE MAIN OBSCURITIES TO THE STARS AND MOON. WESTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY TYPE OF FALLOUT
TO MIN TEMPS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE 40-45
MIN TEMP RANGE WITH ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS HITTING UPPER 30S.
THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...AS A RESULT NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THRESHOLDS MAY BRIEFLY PEAK
ABOVE MINOR FLOOD FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF
WILMINGTON AND SOUTHWARD TO FORT FISHER. THE TIME-LINE WILL BE IN
THE 1230Z-1400Z WED. THE WILMINGTON TIDE GAGE IN THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD IS 5.5 FT MLLW. ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE LATER SHIFT TO DECIDE
WHETHER AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST DILEMMA CENTERS AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY HAS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
MID LEVEL FLOW IS ON THE MOVE AS SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING FINALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TO SOME EXTENT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
THURSDAY BUT SUBSIDES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL
WINDS DECOUPLE LEAVING IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS IF THEY DO AT
ALL. MAV AND MET NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR WITH 35/37 IN LUMBERTON AND
FLORENCE RESPECTIVELY. SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW MEANS A LITTLE
HIGHER AND THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. THE
SAME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING PERHAPS SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COOLER
OF THE TWO. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HPC FAVORS A FIFTY/FIFTY BLEND OF
THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEE NO REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AT THIS POINT.
THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
VALUES FOR SUNDAY. CONSIDERING THE FACT WE ARE OPTING FOR ECMWF
PRODUCTS...ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGED FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION WHICH
MATCHES ADJACENT OFFICES BETTER AS WELL...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS SCT/BKN 250KFT THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN 4-6KFT.
GENERALLY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
HURRICANE SANDY...DRIFTS TO THE N. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KT AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE REMNANTS OF SANDY...AND WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESIDE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. WITH AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND
FIELD...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT RANGE MAY BE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOCAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. HERE THE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL RUN
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LOCAL COASTLINE...AND AS A RESULT...A LOWER
RANGE OF SEAS. HOWEVER...SIG SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS ZONE WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGHER THEN THE OTHER MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE LONGER
FETCH. IE. OCEAN CREST PIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 4 FT WAVES ALL
EVENING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS AT 8 FT. PERIODS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE 5 TO 6 SECOND RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OF
15-20 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WINDS DROP
DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE
INCREASES WINDS TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE LATE. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY WARRANT A SCEC HEADLINE WITH 3-5 FEET THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 2-4 FEET FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...FOCUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL BE WIND
SHIFT FROM A SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
A RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD QUICKLY VEER LATE SUNDAY TO SOUTHWEST
10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL FEATURE FAIRLY BENIGN VALUES ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO RECENT VALUES WITH 2-4 FEET GENERALLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 27-31 PERCENT ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA TO 30-35
PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS COULD SPELL A TRICKY FIRE WEATHER
DAY FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH SANDY
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER (10-15 MPH)
ON THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE EVEN LOWER...25-30
PERCENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
FIRE WEATHER...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CIRCULATION WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL...INDICATE
THE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA
HAVE BASICALLY DISSIPATED. WILL NOW INDICATE JUST A CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS THE MAIN OBSCURITIES TO THE STARS AND MOON. WESTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY TYPE OF FALLOUT
TO MIN TEMPS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE 40-45
MIN TEMP RANGE WITH ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS HITTING UPPER 30S.
THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...AS A RESULT NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THRESHOLDS MAY BRIEFLY PEAK
ABOVE MINOR FLOOD FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF
WILMINGTON AND SOUTHWARD TO FORT FISHER. THE TIME-LINE WILL BE IN
THE 1230Z-1400Z WED. THE WILMINGTON TIDE GAGE IN THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD IS 5.5 FT MLLW. ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE LATER SHIFT TO DECIDE
WHETHER AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION OF
FORMER HURRICANE SANDY WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH OF THE UNITED STATES
INTO EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DISCRETE
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY COULD GUST TO 25 MPH. WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE
TO MYRTLE BEACH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ONLY 60 IN THE
LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH.
AS SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST INLAND AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS. UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LESS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED BUT A COLD AIRMASS
WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM MOS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ANTICIPATED
TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHING ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIFT NORTH...REPLACED BY SUBTLE BUT BRIEF RIDGING FOR
THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE PERIOD PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM UPPER
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THIS FEATURE HAVING SOME
IMPACT ON THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE SHORTWAVE INTERACT WITH SURFACE
LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEMS
LIKELY AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COOL
AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MODIFY OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LATE
IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR CLIMO WITH ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION LATER
SUN. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S OVER
THE WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FROST INLAND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS SCT/BKN 250KFT THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN 4-6KFT.
GENERALLY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
HURRICANE SANDY...DRIFTS TO THE N. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KT AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE REMNANTS OF SANDY...AND WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESIDE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. WITH AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND
FIELD...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT RANGE MAY BE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOCAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. HERE THE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL RUN
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LOCAL COASTLINE...AND AS A RESULT...A LOWER
RANGE OF SEAS. HOWEVER...SIG SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS ZONE WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGHER THEN THE OTHER MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE LONGER
FETCH. IE. OCEAN CREST PIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 4 FT WAVES ALL
EVENING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS AT 8 FT. PERIODS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE 5 TO 6 SECOND RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND FORMER
HURRICANE SANDY. FORTUNATELY WITH THE SHORT OFFSHORE FETCH...SEA
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY FROM THE LARGE SEAS RECENTLY
OBSERVED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE NC WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW INTO SUN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DROP CLOSE TO 10 KT LATE SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. MOVEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FROM
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SUN. DECREASING WIND AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 27-31 PERCENT ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA TO 30-35
PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS COULD SPELL A TRICKY FIRE WEATHER
DAY FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH SANDY
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER (10-15 MPH)
ON THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE EVEN LOWER...25-30
PERCENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
FIRE WEATHER...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NWS PORTLAND OR
942 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE FINAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN TO THE DISTRICT. SUBTROPICAL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARM WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS EXPECTED TO GET SNOW. LATER
THIS WEEK THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK UP AS OUR STALLED FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND COOLER LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. EXPECT A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SWINGS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HAVE SEEN A BIT OF A BREAK THIS EVENING AS THE
OFFSHORE UPPER LOW RE-ORIENTS AND ELONGATES TO A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
DIRECTION. THIS HAS LARGELY SHIFTED THE MOIST FLOW TO BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL NOT FAVOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AS MUCH
SINCE THE FLOW IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND CASCADE RANGES.
WE WILL...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN FROM
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFTING ALOFT MAINLY WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENT GRIDS/FORECASTS AND MODELS ARE HANDLING
THE SITUATION AND REALLY DID NOT HAVE MUCH TO CHANGE. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR CONTINUED CONCERNS. /JBONK
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE ASSOCIATED
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE WED. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGES. GIVEN ITS SLOW MOVING APPROACH...THE COLD FRONT COULD
EASILY DUMP AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE THROUGH WED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN.
THE MAIN BAND OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE
CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. AS SUCH...POPS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH WED
NIGHT AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES WITH THE CHANGE TO A MORE SHOWERY AIR MASS. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES LATE WED AND THU...AND WITH
THE COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL NOT DISCOUNT THE THREAT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST. /27
.LONG TERM...SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW ON FRI
SHOULD SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON FRI NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS MODELED TO BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST.
THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE SERIES OF FRONTS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE FCST REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO CONTINUE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS SNOW ONLY ON THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION....RAIN CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE COAST AND THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF...LATE THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CIGS MAY IMPROVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST
DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...AND
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERIODICALLY DROP INTO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR TAF SITES AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AGAIN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE NORM TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS PASS. EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT MVFR OR LOWER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS.
&&
.MARINE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN WATERS IN
THE GALE WARNING. WINDS REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...THE RAP PRODUCES SLIGHTLY MORE
CYCLOGENESIS. THE MODEL NOW HAS A CLOSED 997MB LOW OFF GRAYS
HARBOR BY 15Z. THIS ALLOWS GALES TO SPREAD WELL INTO OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...AND AS A RESULT...I WENT AHEAD WITH THE UPGRADE. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WAVE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF 130 W AND 40 N WILL RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER MOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE GFS
SHOWS LITTLE RECOGNITION OF THIS FEATURE...APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE NAM CERTAINLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE EXISTING IN ITS
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BUT IS UNIMPRESSIVE. IN CONTRAST...THE
LATEST RAP DEVELOPS A MINIATURE LOW THAT RIDES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND PRODUCES SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
SOUTH OF IT. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RAPS PLAUSIBLE
HANDLING OF THE SITUATION...AND WINDS HOVERING JUST BELOW
GALES...I UPGRADED THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS TO A GALE WARNING. I
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT GALES WILL AT
THE VERY LEAST DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS.
OUR FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TURN TO THE PARENT 990MB LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING DUE WEST OF OREGON AS IT FINALLY APPROACHES THE COAST. AS
IT DOES SO...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
OUR COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
EXPECT SEAS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THEY
SHOULD REMAIN STEEP AND MAY VERY WELL EXCEED 10 FT WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. /NEUMAN
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MOST RIVERS ARE RESPONDING VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECASTS
AND DO NOT HAVE ANY ELEVATED CONCERN FOR A WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT
AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST OREGON/
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES. THE RELATIVE LULL THIS EVENING IS GIVING A CHANCE FOR
DRAINING TO HAPPEN. A VAST MAJORITY OF RIVER SYSTEMS ARE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL LEVELS. THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL
SOME ISSUES WORTH ADDRESSING.
THE GRAYS RIVER AT ROSBURG ACHIEVED FLOOD STAGE AROUND 6 PM EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND WAS JUST BEGINNING TO LEVEL OFF AT THAT TIME. DONT
EXPECT THE STAGE TO GO MORE THAN A HALF FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO SEE WHAT THE 930 PM
OBSERVATION COLLECTIVE FROM THERE BRINGS TO BE ABSOLUTELY SURE. THE
FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED UNLESS NEW INFORMATION
DICTATES OTHERWISE.
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MINOR FLOODING OF
THE TILLAMOOK RIVER DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS AND RUNOFF POTENTIALLY
COINCIDING WITH AN EBBING TIDE. WOULD EXPECT ANY IMMEDIATE ISSUES
FOR THAT RIVER TO HAVE SELF REGULATED AS THE TIDE REACHES THE LOW
POINT SHORTLY. WILL SEE ANOTHER HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT
LOWER THAN THE AFTERNOON HIGH EXPECTED TOMORROW. MAY THEN AGAIN SEE
MINOR FLOODING AS THE FINAL ROUND OF HEAVY RUNOFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AS THE AFTERNOON TIDE INCREASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. OTHER RIVERS DRAINING INTO
TILLAMOOK BAY, SUCH AS THE WILSON AND TRASK, WILL RUN SWIFT AND HIGH
BUT STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
925 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE COOLER IR CLOUD TOPS AT AROUND 130W OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST. THIS WAVE IS SHOWING A BIT IN THE NAM12 WITH THE RAP
PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE THE BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND THE RAP IS
SHOWING GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE UPDATED TO MATCH. THE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK WITH THE OTH-ACV GRADIENT ONLY AROUND 4-5 MB...MUCH LOWER
THAN DESIRED FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THE COAST AND THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION: MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COOS COAST THIS EVENING. PIREPS
FROM KOTH INDICATE LLWS ~30KT AS LOW AS 500 FT AGL ALONG WITH
MODERATE TURBULENCE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES PARALLEL TO THE
COAST. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR AT THE COAST BUT WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND INCREASES.
IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND WILL
SPREAD INLAND BY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS RAIN
SPREADS IN. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES WEST OF THE
CASCADES (INCLUDING KRBG/KMFR/KSIY) AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS...WAVE
TURBULENCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES UNTIL LATER TOMORROW BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
AVIATION...UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION: MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COOS COAST THIS EVENING. PIREPS
FROM KOTH INDICATE LLWS ~30KT AS LOW AS 500 FT AGL ALONG WITH
MODERATE TURBULENCE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES PARALLEL TO THE
COAST. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR AT THE COAST BUT WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND INCREASES.
IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND WILL
SPREAD INLAND BY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS RAIN
SPREADS IN. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES WEST OF THE
CASCADES (INCLUDING KRBG/KMFR/KSIY) AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS...WAVE
TURBULENCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES UNTIL LATER TOMORROW BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. -WRIGHT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER
LAKE AREAS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVEL INITIALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL LOWER BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 6000 FEET. RAIN OF AROUND 1.5
TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECT FOR COASTAL AREAS. FOR INLAND WESTERN
VALLEYS EXPECT RAINFALL GENERALLY AROUND 0.5 TO .75 INCHES. WHILE
EAST OF THE CASCADES...GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OR
LESS IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES...THEN IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT IS GENERALLY
FORECASTING AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE CASCADES RAIN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING SHOWERY WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THEN A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, THE AMPLITUDE OF WHICH IS STILL IN QUESTION.
THE GFS40 MODEL, WHICH IS FAVORED OVER THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME,
INDICATES A FLATTER RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DOES. THE GFS40`S SOLUTION
INDICATES WEAK WARM AIR OVERRUNNING CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA...MUCH
LIKE WE`VE SEEN OF LATE...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE ECMWF IS A FAIR
DEGREE DRIER AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS FURTHER
AND FOLDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF US MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN EAST
SIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS ONLY SKIRTING THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ376.
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1029 AM MDT WED OCT 31 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOKING REASONABLE. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR WIND FORECASTS FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. VFR WITH
UNLIMITED CEILINGS TO CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM MDT WED OCT 31 2012/
SHORT TERM...LITTLE TO EXPOUND UPON WEATHERWISE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BIG UPPER RIDGE NOW MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO WITH ITS
UNSEASONABLY WARM...DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LITTLE WIND FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS WHERE WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT 8-12 DEGS F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE. AVERAGE MAX TEMP FOR DENVER TODAY IS 59. BY NIGHTFALL...HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE UP STREAM OVER IDAHO WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER AND A FEW MORE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. CLOUDS MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH
READINGS AGAIN WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BIT OF
CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THIS ACROSS COLORADO AND ITS EFFECTS WILL MAINLY BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND WILL ONLY LEAVE
IN THE ISOLATED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO DRY LOW
LEVELS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. COOLING BY AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR
THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND THEN ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SATURDAY.
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE FLOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH. STILL AIRMASS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP. SOME WARMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. MAY SEE A TIME THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS
IN THE DENVER METRO AREA WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L