Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/30/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND HEAD WEST TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEREBY INCREASING WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING FURTHER
WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
SANDY HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING
QUICKLY WESTWARD INTO MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA AS OF 01Z. CLOUD
SHIELD HAS COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER AND THICKER CEILINGS NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 40S AS OF 01Z WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25-35MPH COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.
SANDY SPED ASHORE AROUND 22Z...A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. RAP AND HRRR ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS WEST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THE 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND OP GFS APPEAR TO
BE FOLLOWING SUIT. ONE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WITH EXPANSION OF LIGHT
PRECIP INTO EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT IS THE NOTICEABLE AXIS
OF DRIER AIR PRESENT ALONG THE INDIANA-OHIO BORDER...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. SUSPECT THIS MAY BE AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STEADILY
MOISTENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES ALL NIGHT...BUT
PRESENCE OF THE DRIER AIR MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
FULLY MOISTEN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. ONCE IT DOES
THOUGH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IN
THE FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. HAVE EXPANDED POPS JUST A
BIT TO THE WEST AND BUMPED THEM UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINLY RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE...BUT SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN
PERIODICALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES. TWEAKED WIND GRIDS A BIT BUT OVERALL GRIDS LOOKED GOOD.
STILL ANTICIPATING AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONGER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARRIVE. GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SANDY REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO
KEEP IT GOING. MODEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE RANGING FROM 35
TO 50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER VALUES
TO THE SOUTHWEST. NAM SHOWS THESE DROPPING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT GFS
KEEPS STRONGER VALUES GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY GOING AS IS THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST AS SANDY
TRAVERSES WEST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER FORCING AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO AMOUNT TO MUCH /AT MOST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST FOR A STORM TOTAL/ SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST
FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST. AS THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SANDY MOVE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL PULL MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY ONLY SOME
SMALL CHANCES HANG AROUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
FORMERLY KNOWN AS SANDY TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN AND DRY WEATHER TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
TRIES TO INTRODUCE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY BUT GFS/ECMWF DO NOT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK NEAR WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
FOR THE SAME REASON. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS AGREE ON FINALLY ALLOWING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD DEGREE OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMUP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.
FINALLY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
REGIONAL OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH
45 TO 50 KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUST
EXPECTATION FROM 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY A BIT FURTHER WEST...WHICH
APPEARS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
CUTOFF WILL BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL INTRODUCE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE
TOP OF MVFR AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-036>042-
045>049-054>057-063>065-071-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND HEAD WEST TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEREBY INCREASING WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING FURTHER
WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
SANDY HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING
QUICKLY WESTWARD INTO MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA AS OF 01Z. CLOUD
SHIELD HAS COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER AND THICKER CEILINGS NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 40S AS OF 01Z WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25-35MPH COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.
SANDY SPED ASHORE AROUND 22Z...A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. RAP AND HRRR ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS WEST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THE 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND OP GFS APPEAR TO
BE FOLLOWING SUIT. ONE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WITH EXPANSION OF LIGHT
PRECIP INTO EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT IS THE NOTICEABLE AXIS
OF DRIER AIR PRESENT ALONG THE INDIANA-OHIO BORDER...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. SUSPECT THIS MAY BE AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STEADILY
MOISTENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES ALL NIGHT...BUT
PRESENCE OF THE DRIER AIR MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
FULLY MOISTEN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. ONCE IT DOES
THOUGH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IN
THE FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. HAVE EXPANDED POPS JUST A
BIT TO THE WEST AND BUMPED THEM UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINLY RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE...BUT SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN
PERIODICALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES. TWEAKED WIND GRIDS A BIT BUT OVERALL GRIDS LOOKED GOOD.
STILL ANTICIPATING AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONGER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARRIVE. GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SANDY REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO
KEEP IT GOING. MODEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE RANGING FROM 35
TO 50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER VALUES
TO THE SOUTHWEST. NAM SHOWS THESE DROPPING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT GFS
KEEPS STRONGER VALUES GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY GOING AS IS THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST AS SANDY
TRAVERSES WEST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER FORCING AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO AMOUNT TO MUCH /AT MOST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST FOR A STORM TOTAL/ SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST
FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST. AS THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SANDY MOVE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL PULL MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY ONLY SOME
SMALL CHANCES HANG AROUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
FORMERLY KNOWN AS SANDY TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN AND DRY WEATHER TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
TRIES TO INTRODUCE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY BUT GFS/ECMWF DO NOT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK NEAR WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
FOR THE SAME REASON. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS AGREE ON FINALLY ALLOWING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD DEGREE OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMUP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.
FINALLY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
REGIONAL OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH
45 TO 50 KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUST
EXPECTATION FROM 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY A BIT FURTHER WEST...WHICH
APPEARS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
CUTOFF WILL BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL INTRODUCE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE
TOP OF MVFR AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-036>042-
045>049-054>057-063>065-071-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU HAS BEEN STEADILY EXPANDING BACK WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. NAM AND OP GFS GUIDANCE BOTH
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
WITH THE ONGOING CONSOLIDATION OF HURRICANE SANDY AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST RECENT RAP GUIDANCE HOWEVER
SUGGESTIVE THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS
WELL. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD GRIDS EXTENSIVELY FOR THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER ALL BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
REVISIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE CLOUD FORECAST LATER
THIS EVENING.
REST UNCHANGED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES. COULD FLIRT WITH FREEZING
IN THE WEST WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT THINK WINDS
STAYING UP WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING FROM OCCURRING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR. MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY MAKING THEIR WAY HERE AND
HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR WEST. WIND GUSTS OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
DROP OFF SUNSET BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH OR
MORE OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS FIRST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SECOND FROM A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS...GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SANDY THAN THE 12Z
CANADIAN AS IS PREFERRED. THE FORMER BLEND WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE REGIONAL OUTPUT. THE BLEND HAS THE REMNANTS NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH QPF ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD JUST BE RAIN
SHOWERS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER
COORDINATION...ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REGIONAL OUTPUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK AND LEFT ALONE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST AFTER STARTING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN REPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE SANDY TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KT...AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS PUSHING 20KT WITH GUSTS TO
30KT...AND PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF MOISTURE SHIELD TO OUR EAST. MAY SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT
BRIEFLY LATE...BUT EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ALLOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. BASES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU HAS BEEN STEADILY EXPANDING BACK WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. NAM AND OP GFS GUIDANCE BOTH
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
WITH THE ONGOING CONSOLIDATION OF HURRICANE SANDY AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST RECENT RAP GUIDANCE HOWEVER
SUGGESTIVE THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS
WELL. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD GRIDS EXTENSIVELY FOR THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER ALL BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
REVISIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE CLOUD FORECAST LATER
THIS EVENING.
REST UNCHANGED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES. COULD FLIRT WITH FREEZING
IN THE WEST WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT THINK WINDS
STAYING UP WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING FROM OCCURRING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR. MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY MAKING THEIR WAY HERE AND
HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR WEST. WIND GUSTS OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
DROP OFF SUNSET BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH OR
MORE OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS FIRST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SECOND FROM A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS...GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SANDY THAN THE 12Z
CANADIAN AS IS PREFERRED. THE FORMER BLEND WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE REGIONAL OUTPUT. THE BLEND HAS THE REMNANTS NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH QPF ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD JUST BE RAIN
SHOWERS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER
COORDINATION...ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REGIONAL OUTPUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK AND LEFT ALONE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST AFTER STARTING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS AS AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AS SANDY GETS CLOSER TO SHORE RESULTING
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. ONLY
CLOUDS WILL BE CIRRUS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K
FEET.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO THIS
AFTERNOON AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
FINALLY...TOMORROW AFTER 14Z...WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUSTAINED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WAS APPROXIMATELY 120 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WASHINGTON D.C. EARLY THIS EVENING. THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL THEN TRACK INLAND INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS
LARGE STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SANDY HAS ACCELERATED...AND HAS MOVED ONSHORE ERLR THIS EVNG. RGNL
RADARS DEPICT THE HEAVIEST RAFL TO THE SW OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
STILL DO HV SOME ECHOES NEARER THE CENTER. LTST HRRR AND WRF GDNC
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA MAY FILL BACK IN OVNGT. ATTM WL MONITOR
RATHER THAN MAKE BIG POPS ADJUSTMENTS. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS.
HV BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME OF THE HIEST WND GUSTS SINCE 21 OR
22Z...W/ SUSTAINED WNDS 20-30 KT AND GUSTS 40 KT COMMON. HV BEEN
SEEING SOME 50 KT GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. WHILE WNDS SHUD
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS CENTER OF LOW NEARS...DONT WISH TO DILLUTE
THE SCREAMING MESSAGE OF THE THREAT NEXT SVRL HRS. THEREFORE WL
HOLD THE COURSE...ANTICIPATING THAT THE WIND FCST LKLY WL NEED TO
BE UPDTD OVNGT.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS STORM IS SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 2000 FT. WITH THE
FORECAST WINDS...THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HV
EXPANDED BLIZZARD WRNG ONCE AGN TO INCL WRN ALLEGANY CNTY. ATTM THE
BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS
SKYLINE DRIVE IN SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK.
SANDY WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. FOR A CONCISE SUMMARY OF THREATS AND THEIR IMPACTS PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON SANDY...SPSLWX. THERE IS
A LINK TO THIS IN BIG RED LETTERS AT THE TOP OF OUR WEBPAGE...
WEATHER.GOV/LWX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POST TROPICAL SANDY WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WINDY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING.
A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL TURN OUT DRY AND CHILLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SANDY MOVING INLAND TO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM RAIN/WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THEN. WIND
GUSTS AOA 50 KT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. CIGS HAVE
MAINLY BEEN MVFR MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND...BUT VSBYS
HAVE BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND THIS
TOO WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WNDS MAY ABATE SOMEWHAT
AS CENTER OF THE LOW NEARS TERMINALS TWD DAWN. WL BE MONITORING
WNDS...ADJUSTING AS NEEDED.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ON THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND STORM WARNINGS ON THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL
POTOMAC REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS REACHING/EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE I-270
CORRIDOR INTO THE BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. HEAVY RAIN OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS WHERE FALLEN LEAVIES /OR PERHAPS OTHER WIND
DRIVEN DEBRIS/ MAY CLOG DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. THESE FACTORS ALSO APPLY
FOR LONGER-DURATION STREAM FLOODING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AND LENGTHY... EVEN ON STREAMS THAT ARE USUALLY FAST
TO RISE AND FALL.
THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO FORECASTED TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CONOCOCHEAGUE CREEK NEAR FAIRVIEW...THE
OPEQUON CREEK NEAR MARTINSBURG...THE ANTIETAM CREEK NEAR SHARPSBURG
AND THE GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG.
IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE CREST MAY NOT GET DOWN TO
LITTLE FALLS UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NW WNDS HV LED TO BLOWOUT ON THE BAY/PTMC. MOST SITES
AOB ASTRO NORMALS...XCPT FOR LWTV2/SLIM2 WHERE DEPARTURES RUNNING
AOB 1 FT.
ONCE CYCLONE MOVES A BIT FURTHER INLAND...WNDS WL BECOME SLY.
XPCTG POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMOLIES TO RESUME ONCE THAT HPPNS. THIS WL
FOCUS ON THE TUE AM AND TUE PM TIDE CYCLES. LTST GDNC SUGGESTING
WATER WL EFFECTIVELY PILE INTO THE UPR REACHES /BALT HARBOR NWD ON
THE BAY..INVOF INSIDE THE BELTWAY FOR THE PTMC/. HV INCRSD NUMBERS
THERE...TO 2 TO 4 FT...AND WL BE KEEPING DEPARTURES ARND 2 FT
ELSW.
THE UPR TIDAL PTMC POTENTIALLY CUD BE AFFECTED BY FRESHWATER
FLOODING AS WELL BY LT WED OR ELY THU.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR DCZ001.
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ003>007-
009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MDZ007-011-013.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ014-016>018.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501>504.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR VAZ053-054.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
036>040.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ052-055-057.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505-
506.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ055-502.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS/BPP
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...HTS/BPP/BJL
MARINE...BPP/BJL
HYDROLOGY...HTS/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
427 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND POST HURRICANE SANDY WILL LEAD TO WIND...RAIN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING POPS WERE INITIALLY ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE STEADILY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE INTO THE DEEP
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. PERI DAWN POPS WERE
STRUCTURED USING A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS AND COMBINED
WITH ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH FOG ON THE RIDGES.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BASICALLY FEATURES A CONTINUED
ESCALATION OF PCPN CHANCES. TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINIMAL
AND THAT PROGNOSIS WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SREF MEANS
WITH PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...FEATURING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF POST HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM SANDY ACRS PENNSYLVANIA...WERE
PRIMARILY COSMETIC.
PERIODS OF RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY BY MONDAY AND WIND WILL INCREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE FLOOD AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST GFS...NAM...AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE WRAPPING SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR A CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER ON MONDAY OVER THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THERE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED...AND
WORDED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE TRI COUNTY AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF OAKLAND OF GARRETT COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO PRECLUDE SNOW...OR ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS
WHERE SNOW MIXES WITH THE RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG LOW RESULTING FROM THE PHASING OF POST TROPICAL STORM
SANDY AND THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NORTH THIS
PERIOD. DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER WV-MD MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED ON
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT. ONCE THE COLD LOW CENTER
EXITS...DRYING WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF A KLBE-KDUJ LINE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KZZV THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT KZZV. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OF KPIT THIS
MORNING.
AFTER 14Z...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED AND
MOISTURE FROM SANDY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL MERGE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING
FREQUENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WHEN THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW FROM SANDY NEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WERE BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS GUIDANCE...AND ARE CONSERVATIVELY FORECAST
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RAIN FOR THE MONONGAHELA AND ALLEGHENY RIVER
BASINS. GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS.
SHOULD EITHER OF THESE TOTAL BE REALIZED ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...THEN
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD OCCUR BY LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH RIVER RISES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIVER
FLOODING WOULD FOLLOW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR.
FOR NOW...A FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS
WILL FOLLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SITUATION MATURES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MDZ001.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MDZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
114 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHBOUND HURRICANE SANDY WILL LEAD TO
WINDY CONDITIONS...RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING...AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT POPS WERE INITIALLY ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE INTO THE DEEP
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. PERI DAWN POPS WERE
STRUCTURED USING A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS...AND
BASICALLY FEATURE A REESCALATION OF PCPN CHANCES AS THE MRNG...AND
AS THE DAY PROGRESS.
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINIMAL AND FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE LATEST SREF MEANS WITH PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...FEATURING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF POST TROPICAL STORM SANDY ACRS PENNSYLVANIA...WERE PRIMARILY COSMETIC.
PERIODS OF RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY BY MONDAY AND WIND WILL INCREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE FLOOD AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS ARE WRAPPING SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW
LATER ON MONDAY OVER THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED THERE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
FURTHER ATTENTION TO THAT SITUATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
ELSEWHERE...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO PRECLUDE SNOW...OR ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS
WHERE SNOW MIXES WITH THE RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG LOW RESULTING FROM THE PHASING OF HURRICANE SANDY AND
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NORTH THIS PERIOD. DUE
TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER WV-MD MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED ON
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT. ONCE THE COLD LOW CENTER
EXITS...DRYING WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF A KLBE-KDUJ LINE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT KLBE-KMGW-KDUJ INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THROUGH DAWN AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS OTHER THAN KZZV. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT
KZZV. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KZZV.
AFTER 14Z...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO MVFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
AND MOISTURE FROM SANDY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL MERGE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING
FREQUENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WHEN THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW FROM SANDY NEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE 2 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE FOR THE MONONGAHELA AND
ALLEGHENY RIVER BASINS. GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES ACROSS THOSE SAME
AREAS.
SHOULD EITHER OF THESE TOTAL BE REALIZED ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...THEN
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD OCCUR BY LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH RIVER RISES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH FLOODING
FOLLOWING IF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
FOR NOW...A FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LATER RIVER FLOODING WILL
BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS
WILL FOLLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SITUATION MATURES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MDZ001.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
15/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
841 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF HAS HELPED STEER
HURRICANE SANDY WESTWARD ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD
AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WRN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ASSOC
WITH THE UPR DIV OF JET MAX HAS EDGED INTO THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY HAVE REACHED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN EAST COAST STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE NORTH WINDS AOA 40 KT
WITHIN MIXED LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FOUR ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THUS...PER COORDINATION WITH
APX HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALGER...DELTA...LUCE
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 09Z TONIGHT FOR
ALGER AND LUCE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER NORTH WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FOR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES HAVE
STARTED THE HEADLINE AT 12Z TUE. ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUE
EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES AT WHICH TIME PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORM OVER WRN
PA.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING FCST AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PCPN
ASSOC WITH EAST COAST STORM STAYS EAST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z TUE. BOTH
GFS AND NAM THEN INDICATE PCPN SPREADING SLOWLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS 850-800 FGEN FORCING INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPR DIVERGENCE OF
STRONG UPR JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO WRN QUEBEC. BOTH
GFS AND PARTICULARLY NAM SNDGS OVER ERN UPR MI WANT TO HOLD ONTO COLD
LAYER FROM SFC TO NEAR 3KFT THRU TUESDAY DESPITE WAA OCCURRING AT 850
MB ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING
THERE WON`T BE SOME MODERATION/WARMING OF NEAR SFC LYR DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY GIVEN COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND NRLY ONSHORE FLOW
OFF RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR (MID TO UPPER 40S TEMPS).
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS FAR EAST TAPERING TO LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC NEAR MQT
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHOW UP
OVER MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BEING THE
RESULT.
THE RETROGRADING SFC LOW MOVING OVER W PA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N HUDSON BAY...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
DOWN THOUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
GOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE E COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
SWING IN FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MQT COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND W QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. THIS IS STILL THE 6TH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...SO WILL
NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH IT QUITE YET...AS THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY A FEW
SMALLER POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BETWEEN -0
TO -4C THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY ON N-NNW WINDS...BEFORE BRIEFLY FALLING
TO AROUND -8C OVER THE W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW
LINGERING ALOFT BEHIND THE THE NEXT 500MB LOW SWINGING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES FROM SATURDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NW FLOW OVERHEAD AT
12Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TO FAR E MN. THE
29/06Z GFS IS INITIALLY ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN THE 19/00Z ECMWF. THE
29/12Z REMAINS AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE 29/12Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. WILL HEDGE THE MID RANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 832 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
AS A RIDGE FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AN
INTENSE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DRIFT TO THE WEST...THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN INCREASING NRLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
INTO KSAW. SOME SNOW/RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO
TUE EVENING AT SAW BUT SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS BLO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT
WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE... POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD
AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ006-007.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA S THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MINOR SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SD INTO NRN MN IS AIDING AN
AREA OF SNOW OVER NRN MN. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER
WISE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES IS COVERING THE
AREA FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
RESULTING IN LIGHT/CALM WIND ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C...OVERWATER INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR LES...BUT SFC BASED WELL-MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON UPSTREAM 00Z
KINL SOUNDING IS A BIG NEGATIVE. AS A RESULT...KMQT RADAR HAS ONLY
HINTED AT SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND CNTRL FCST AREA HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE IN THE SHORT TERM HAS SFC HIGH PRES
DOMINATES THE AREA. THE AREA OF SNOW IN NRN MN WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NE TODAY...PASSING W OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...IF THERE ARE ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MOVING ONSHORE TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...THOSE WILL
DISSIPATE BY AFTN AS AIRMASS MODIFIES SLIGHTLY. IN THE END...EXPECT
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO 40-45...WARMEST
SCNTRL.
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT/CALM WIND...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MINS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLDS SPOTS OVER THE W HALF INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
MAIN SHOW FOR THE LONG TERM IS WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVING INTO THE CWA TUE AND WED...WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF SHIFTS.
STARTING WITH MON...THINGS LOOKS PRETTY QUIET OVER THE CWA AS A SFC
RIDGE SITS OVER UPPER MI. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED MON AND
MON NIGHT.
SANDY MAKES LANDFALL LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT OVER OR NEAR NJ...THE
SYSTEM THEN SPINS OVER SE PA THROUGH 06Z WED BEFORE SHIPPING N TO
FAR SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AS
THE SYSTEM PUSHES THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM OVER THE CWA TO JUST NW OF
THE CWA. BEING BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY NLY/NELY TUE AND WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
PRECIP CUT OFF OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AND AN UPPER
RIDGE...AND PRECIP TYPE AS MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF COLDER AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA THAT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. WILL FOCUS IN A
BIT MORE ON THESE DETAILS.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DEEP MOISTURE WILL FIRST ROTATE INTO THE CWA
FROM E TO W AROUND 12Z TUE AND WILL REACH PEAK DEPTH INTO THE CWA
WED EVENING. QUESTION IS HOW FAR W WILL THE MOISTURE GO. ALL MODELS
SHOW A SHARP CUT OFF FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT 1000-700MB RH EAST TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RH WEST. THE 00Z/28 GFS IS THE FARTHEST W WITH
THE CUT OFF...BRINGING HIGHER RH VALUES OVER ALL OF THE CWA...WHILE
THE 12Z/27 ECMWF IS ON THE E SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE TRANSITION
FROM MOIST TO DRY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THE 00Z/28 NAM IS MORE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE CUT OFF CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN
THE GFS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS THAT COVER WRN UPPER MI IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER NCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER
MI. GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE OVER AT LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA...STRONG CYCLONIC NNELY FLOW /AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS/ AND COOL 900-850MB TEMPS THAT WILL RESULT IN
DELTA T VALUES AROUND 7-10C THESE LIKELY POPS ARE CERTAINLY
JUSTIFIED...AND WILL INCREASE THESE SOME.
BEST CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE TUE NIGHT AS NEAR SFC TEMPS
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S UNDER THE SUB-FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE
OVER THE NCENTRAL CWA. OVER THE E...WARMER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM AT AROUND 800MB...AND SHOULD BE DEEP AND WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
MOST PRECIP RAIN. HOWEVER...OVER THE ERN CWA...SOME OF THE PRECIP
COULD FALL AS SLEET BEFORE THE DEEPER WARM AIR ARRIVES SINCE 900MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C. BACK TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. AGREE THAT BEST BET FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE
ON THE LOW SIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE GIVEN THAT THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE AT 550-500MB AND OUT OF THE BEST LIFT FROM UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF ALL
FACTORS LINE UP. THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SOME SLOPPY DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WED MORNING COMMUTE SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE
HWO.
WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER IMPORTANT ASPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 925MB WINDS
GREATER THAN 30KTS MOVES IN FROM E TO W LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...WITH 925MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS OVER ERN UPPER MI FROM AROUND
09Z TUE TO AROUND 06Z WED. THESE HIGHER WINDS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT MIXING TO THE SFC OVER LAND DURING THE DAY ON TUE BUT
EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO BE 40MPH OR LESS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
50MPH GUSTS. OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW LAKE MI...EXPECT GUSTS TO
REMAIN BELOW 40KTS SINCE WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAKENING...NOT THE TYPICAL SIGNAL FOR STRONG LAKE WINDS.
ECMWF MOVES THE PRECIP OUT BY LATE WED NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEP
PRECIP INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE ECMWF FOR POPS ON THU.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR FRI AND SAT...AND WITH HIGHER IMPACT
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT
AND THEN DRIFTING W TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MON WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 20KT. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE FAR E
MON...SO WINDS THERE SHOULD RISE UP TO 15-25KT. MON NIGHT THRU
THU...THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER W.
MEANWHILE...POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND
FIELD AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED. A FEW
FACTORS WILL KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. FIRST...SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING
QUICKLY AFTER IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
SECOND...THERE ARE NO STRONG DYNAMICS AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND THIRD THERE IS NO CAA. SO...PROBABLY WON`T SEE GALES
OVER 35-40KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA S THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MINOR SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SD INTO NRN MN IS AIDING AN
AREA OF SNOW OVER NRN MN. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER
WISE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES IS COVERING THE
AREA FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
RESULTING IN LIGHT/CALM WIND ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C...OVERWATER INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR LES...BUT SFC BASED WELL-MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON UPSTREAM 00Z
KINL SOUNDING IS A BIG NEGATIVE. AS A RESULT...KMQT RADAR HAS ONLY
HINTED AT SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND CNTRL FCST AREA HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE IN THE SHORT TERM HAS SFC HIGH PRES
DOMINATES THE AREA. THE AREA OF SNOW IN NRN MN WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NE TODAY...PASSING W OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...IF THERE ARE ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MOVING ONSHORE TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...THOSE WILL
DISSIPATE BY AFTN AS AIRMASS MODIFIES SLIGHTLY. IN THE END...EXPECT
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO 40-45...WARMEST
SCNTRL.
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT/CALM WIND...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MINS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLDS SPOTS OVER THE W HALF INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
MAIN SHOW FOR THE LONG TERM IS WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVING INTO THE CWA TUE AND WED...WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF SHIFTS.
STARTING WITH MON...THINGS LOOKS PRETTY QUIET OVER THE CWA AS A SFC
RIDGE SITS OVER UPPER MI. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED MON AND
MON NIGHT.
SANDY MAKES LANDFALL LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT OVER OR NEAR NJ...THE
SYSTEM THEN SPINS OVER SE PA THROUGH 06Z WED BEFORE SHIPPING N TO
FAR SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AS
THE SYSTEM PUSHES THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM OVER THE CWA TO JUST NW OF
THE CWA. BEING BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY NLY/NELY TUE AND WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
PRECIP CUT OFF OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AND AN UPPER
RIDGE...AND PRECIP TYPE AS MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF COLDER AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA THAT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. WILL FOCUS IN A
BIT MORE ON THESE DETAILS.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DEEP MOISTURE WILL FIRST ROTATE INTO THE CWA
FROM E TO W AROUND 12Z TUE AND WILL REACH PEAK DEPTH INTO THE CWA
WED EVENING. QUESTION IS HOW FAR W WILL THE MOISTURE GO. ALL MODELS
SHOW A SHARP CUT OFF FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT 1000-700MB RH EAST TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RH WEST. THE 00Z/28 GFS IS THE FARTHEST W WITH
THE CUT OFF...BRINGING HIGHER RH VALUES OVER ALL OF THE CWA...WHILE
THE 12Z/27 ECMWF IS ON THE E SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE TRANSITION
FROM MOIST TO DRY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THE 00Z/28 NAM IS MORE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE CUT OFF CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN
THE GFS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS THAT COVER WRN UPPER MI IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER NCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER
MI. GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE OVER AT LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA...STRONG CYCLONIC NNELY FLOW /AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS/ AND COOL 900-850MB TEMPS THAT WILL RESULT IN
DELTA T VALUES AROUND 7-10C THESE LIKELY POPS ARE CERTAINLY
JUSTIFIED...AND WILL INCREASE THESE SOME.
BEST CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE TUE NIGHT AS NEAR SFC TEMPS
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S UNDER THE SUB-FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE
OVER THE NCENTRAL CWA. OVER THE E...WARMER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM AT AROUND 800MB...AND SHOULD BE DEEP AND WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
MOST PRECIP RAIN. HOWEVER...OVER THE ERN CWA...SOME OF THE PRECIP
COULD FALL AS SLEET BEFORE THE DEEPER WARM AIR ARRIVES SINCE 900MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C. BACK TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. AGREE THAT BEST BET FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE
ON THE LOW SIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE GIVEN THAT THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE AT 550-500MB AND OUT OF THE BEST LIFT FROM UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF ALL
FACTORS LINE UP. THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SOME SLOPPY DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WED MORNING COMMUTE SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE
HWO.
WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER IMPORTANT ASPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 925MB WINDS
GREATER THAN 30KTS MOVES IN FROM E TO W LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...WITH 925MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS OVER ERN UPPER MI FROM AROUND
09Z TUE TO AROUND 06Z WED. THESE HIGHER WINDS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT MIXING TO THE SFC OVER LAND DURING THE DAY ON TUE BUT
EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO BE 40MPH OR LESS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
50MPH GUSTS. OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW LAKE MI...EXPECT GUSTS TO
REMAIN BELOW 40KTS SINCE WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAKENING...NOT THE TYPICAL SIGNAL FOR STRONG LAKE WINDS.
ECMWF MOVES THE PRECIP OUT BY LATE WED NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEP
PRECIP INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE ECMWF FOR POPS ON THU.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR FRI AND SAT...AND WITH HIGHER IMPACT
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT
AND THEN DRIFTING W TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MON WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 20KT. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE FAR E
MON...SO WINDS THERE SHOULD RISE UP TO 15-25KT. MON NIGHT THRU
THU...THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER W.
MEANWHILE...POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND
FIELD AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED. A FEW
FACTORS WILL KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. FIRST...SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING
QUICKLY AFTER IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
SECOND...THERE ARE NO STRONG DYNAMICS AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND THIRD THERE IS NO CAA. SO...PROBABLY WON`T SEE GALES
OVER 35-40KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA S THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MINOR SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SD INTO NRN MN IS AIDING AN
AREA OF SNOW OVER NRN MN. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER
WISE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES IS COVERING THE
AREA FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
RESULTING IN LIGHT/CALM WIND ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C...OVERWATER INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR LES...BUT SFC BASED WELL-MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON UPSTREAM 00Z
KINL SOUNDING IS A BIG NEGATIVE. AS A RESULT...KMQT RADAR HAS ONLY
HINTED AT SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND CNTRL FCST AREA HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE IN THE SHORT TERM HAS SFC HIGH PRES
DOMINATES THE AREA. THE AREA OF SNOW IN NRN MN WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NE TODAY...PASSING W OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...IF THERE ARE ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MOVING ONSHORE TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...THOSE WILL
DISSIPATE BY AFTN AS AIRMASS MODIFIES SLIGHTLY. IN THE END...EXPECT
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO 40-45...WARMEST
SCNTRL.
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT/CALM WIND...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MINS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLDS SPOTS OVER THE W HALF INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
MAIN SHOW FOR THE LONG TERM IS WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVING INTO THE CWA TUE AND WED...WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF SHIFTS.
STARTING WITH MON...THINGS LOOKS PRETTY QUIET OVER THE CWA AS A SFC
RIDGE SITS OVER UPPER MI. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED MON AND
MON NIGHT.
SANDY MAKES LANDFALL LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT OVER OR NEAR NJ...THE
SYSTEM THEN SPINS OVER SE PA THROUGH 06Z WED BEFORE SHIPPING N TO
FAR SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AS
THE SYSTEM PUSHES THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM OVER THE CWA TO JUST NW OF
THE CWA. BEING BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY NLY/NELY TUE AND WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
PRECIP CUT OFF OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AND AN UPPER
RIDGE...AND PRECIP TYPE AS MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF COLDER AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA THAT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. WILL FOCUS IN A
BIT MORE ON THESE DETAILS.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DEEP MOISTURE WILL FIRST ROTATE INTO THE CWA
FROM E TO W AROUND 12Z TUE AND WILL REACH PEAK DEPTH INTO THE CWA
WED EVENING. QUESTION IS HOW FAR W WILL THE MOISTURE GO. ALL MODELS
SHOW A SHARP CUT OFF FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT 1000-700MB RH EAST TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RH WEST. THE 00Z/28 GFS IS THE FARTHEST W WITH
THE CUT OFF...BRINGING HIGHER RH VALUES OVER ALL OF THE CWA...WHILE
THE 12Z/27 ECMWF IS ON THE E SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE TRANSITION
FROM MOIST TO DRY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THE 00Z/28 NAM IS MORE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE CUT OFF CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN
THE GFS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS THAT COVER WRN UPPER MI IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER NCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER
MI. GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE OVER AT LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA...STRONG CYCLONIC NNELY FLOW /AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS/ AND COOL 900-850MB TEMPS THAT WILL RESULT IN
DELTA T VALUES AROUND 7-10C THESE LIKELY POPS ARE CERTAINLY
JUSTIFIED...AND WILL INCREASE THESE SOME.
BEST CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE TUE NIGHT AS NEAR SFC TEMPS
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S UNDER THE SUB-FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE
OVER THE NCENTRAL CWA. OVER THE E...WARMER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM AT AROUND 800MB...AND SHOULD BE DEEP AND WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
MOST PRECIP RAIN. HOWEVER...OVER THE ERN CWA...SOME OF THE PRECIP
COULD FALL AS SLEET BEFORE THE DEEPER WARM AIR ARRIVES SINCE 900MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C. BACK TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. AGREE THAT BEST BET FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE
ON THE LOW SIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE GIVEN THAT THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE AT 550-500MB AND OUT OF THE BEST LIFT FROM UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF ALL
FACTORS LINE UP. THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SOME SLOPPY DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE WED MORNING COMMUTE SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE
HWO.
WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER IMPORTANT ASPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 925MB WINDS
GREATER THAN 30KTS MOVES IN FROM E TO W LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...WITH 925MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS OVER ERN UPPER MI FROM AROUND
09Z TUE TO AROUND 06Z WED. THESE HIGHER WINDS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT MIXING TO THE SFC OVER LAND DURING THE DAY ON TUE BUT
EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO BE 40MPH OR LESS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
50MPH GUSTS. OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW LAKE MI...EXPECT GUSTS TO
REMAIN BELOW 40KTS SINCE WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAKENING...NOT THE TYPICAL SIGNAL FOR STRONG LAKE WINDS.
ECMWF MOVES THE PRECIP OUT BY LATE WED NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEP
PRECIP INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE ECMWF FOR POPS ON THU.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR FRI AND SAT...AND WITH HIGHER IMPACT
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST...VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE. WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WEST OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
CIGS WILL STAY AOA MVFR CONDITION. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
SPEEDS AT KSAW WHERE NORTH WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT
AND THEN DRIFTING W TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MON WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 20KT. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE FAR E
MON...SO WINDS THERE SHOULD RISE UP TO 15-25KT. MON NIGHT THRU
THU...THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER W.
MEANWHILE...POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND
FIELD AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED. A FEW
FACTORS WILL KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. FIRST...SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING
QUICKLY AFTER IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
SECOND...THERE ARE NO STRONG DYNAMICS AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND THIRD THERE IS NO CAA. SO...PROBABLY WON`T SEE GALES
OVER 35-40KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
645 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL COME ONSHORE ALONG THE THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
ON MONDAY AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS INTO OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...OUTER EFFECTS FROM SANDY ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS
LUZERENE CO PA WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN. LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE DOING AN OK JOB CAPTURING THIS RAIN...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE
BEST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS IT MAINLY
CLOSE BUT JUST OUT OF OUR CWA. THINKING THAT THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION LOOKS GOOD (SE TO NW BAND OF RAIN) BUT WILL BUMP IT
ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MEANS RAIN LIKELY
FROM LUZERENE...LACKAWANNA...WYOMING COUNTIES IN NEPA...THEN
MOVING TO THE NW INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
OLD BNDRY CONTS TO BE STALLED OVER WRN NY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND HAS KEPT THE FCST AREA FROM BEING
INVOLVED IN THE PRE RAIN. XPCT THIS BNDRY TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF LGT RAIN HAS PUSHED THRU THE CNTRL
AND SRN ZONES THRU THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NE ZONES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD FAST OR EVEN PUSH SWWRD OVRNGT
LIMITING THE RAINFALL TO THE XTRM SE ZONES THRY THE NEAR TERM. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LTL DOUBT NOW IN THE TRACK OF SANDY WITH A NJ CST LANDFALL AND A
STALL IN SRN/CNTRL PA. THIS KEEPS THE FCST AREA IN THE RGT FNT
QUAD OF THE STORM...CREATING MORE CONCRN FOR WINDS BUT LESS FOR
RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE VERY STRONG WITH NAM MODEL SNDG FCSTS OF 70 KTS IN THE
UNSTABLE LYR NEAR THE GND DURING THE PK PD AFT 00Z TUE. THIS SHD
TRANSLATE TO 30 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND A SOME GUSTS NEAR OR OVER
60 MPH. WITH THE ELY DIRECTION...TREES THAT HAVE GROWN TO
WITHSTAND WEST WIND MAY BE COMPROMISED BY THIS STRONG EAST FLOW.
LOW BEGINS TO FILL RAPIDLY WITH THE GRADIENT LOOSENING
CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z WED.
PCPN LOOKS TO PEAK OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN CATS AND
POCONOS...WITH SOME SHADOWING EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM...ESP OVER CNTRL
NY. ALSO...THERE/S SCNDRY PCPN PEAK OVER THE WRN ZONES. IN
GNRL...NOT ENUF FCSTD QPF TO CAUSE ANYTHING OTR THAN SOME MINOR
FLOODING..AT WORST. HWVR...WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM...NEVER DEEL
COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE WITH ANY RAINFALL FCST. ALSO...IT/S DFCLT
TO FCST THE AMT OF EXTRA PCPN WILL BE GENERATED BY THE TERRAIN.
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTD.
MON WILL START WITH A CONTD INFLOW OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT NWRD AS SANDY APRCHS. THEN... STEADY
RAIN CONTS THRU TUE AS SANDY STALLS OVER PA. MODELS DO CONT TO
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NRN ZONES BUT IN GNRL...CAT POPS
JUSTIFIED THRU TUE WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS OVER THE PA ZONES
AND UPSLOPE AREAS.
LINGERING LGTR PCPN CONTS THRU WEDS SANDY CONTS TO FILL AND LIFT
NWRD. NOT ENUF COLD AIR AVBL ALOFT...AND CERTAINLY NOT AT THE
SFC...FOR ANY MENTION OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. USED HPC GUIDANCE
WITH LTL CHG. HPC FCSTS LOOKED VERY GOOD IN ADVERTISING THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SANDY...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. FCST
TEMPS ARE A LTL WARMER REDUCING THE CHCS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE IN
THE PD (THU NGT/FRI MRNG).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST SPCLY W/RESPECT TO THE 18-24Z TIME
FRAME THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY IS SLOWLY PUSHING WWD. IFR/LIFR CIGS
PERSIST TO THE W OF THIS BNDRY...WITH IMPRVMNT TO VFR NOTED AT RME
AND ALSO AT NORWICH AND SIDNEY. THE BACKEDGE OF THESE LOWER CIGS
IS FCST TO RETROGRADE THIS AFTN...TO A PSN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF A
SYR/BGM LINE. LATER THIS AFTN...LOW LVL MSTR IS ALSO FCST TO INCRS
ACRS FAR SE ZONES.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO PERSIST...WITH
SOME BRIEF IMPRVMNT THIS AFTN AT BGM/SYR/RME. ON MON...SYR/RME
COULD STAY LOW END VFR THRU 18Z...BUT ELSEWHERE MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN
MOVG INTO SRN NY AND NE PA DURING THE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN AS SANDY
APRCHS.
WINDS TNGT N TO NE ARND 10 KTS...INCRNG TO NE 15-25 BY LATE MON
MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.
WED/THU...MVFR IN SHRA.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA...AND OUR NY COUNTIES BELOW THE
THRUWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PATH OF SANDY THROUGH NJ/SRN PA DURG ITS STGST
PHASE...THE HEAVIEST RAIN (4+" BASIN AVG) SHOULD STAY MAINLY S OF
OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINT TOTALS NEAR 4" ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
BOTTOM LN...WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR
CERTAIN PTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE SHORT-TERM SECTION ABV.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MSE/RRM
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
943 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF SANDY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 845 PM MONDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR DATE INDICATE
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN 1/4TH TO 1/3RD OF
THE ILM CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE FA REMAIN 10+ DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
AS A RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN 7+
MILES DURING ANY PCPN OCCURRENCE. THE CHANGES MADE TO THIS
OVERNIGHT UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA BASED
ON LATEST VARIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS.
CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST LOOKING AOK. WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...WOULD HAVE INCREASED MINS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...THE DECENT CAA CANCELS THAT OUT. SO BASICALLY NO CHANGE
TO THE MIN TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...SPOKE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GROWING
SPIRALING AIR MASS THAT IS HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING THE REGION BY
00Z. WITH IT WILL COME A SLIGHT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS BOTH OVER LAND
AND SEA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME WINDS MAY ABATE SLIGHTLY OVER LAND
AND VEER SLIGHTLY. CIRCULATION OF SANDY SO LARGE HOWEVER THAT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS A BREEZY NIGHT WITH WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...A LITTLE HIGHER N AND A LITTLE LOWER S.
VORT SPOKE HAS ALSO BEEN CAUSING A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS OVER NRN
ZONES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THAT HAVE FOR THE MOST PART FAILED TO
REACH THE GROUND OVER OUR ZONES. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR TO BE GROWING
A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUT GIVEN LARGE T/TD SPREAD FEEL THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY
LOCAL HIGH RES WRF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE SANDY WILL BE MERGING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ON TUESDAY...CREATING AN ENORMOUS VORTEX ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...KEEPING THE CAROLINAS UNDER ITS
INFLUENCE WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOL TEMPS EACH DAY.
AS THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND IT AND DOWN INTO THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH PVA TO
SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST MODERATE SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS
WELL...FURTHER SUPPORTING THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...W/NW WINDS WILL
ACT TO SOMEWHAT DRY THE COLUMN...INHIBIT MUCH PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND
THIS MAY END UP BEING MORE IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THAN SHOWERS. STILL...WILL CONTINUE INHERITED SCHC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN...BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG CAA WRAPPING BEHIND HURRICANE SANDY WILL DEVELOP IN EARNEST
ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 0C TUESDAY
NIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...AND TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPS MAXING OUT ONLY IN THE MID
50S...OR VALUES MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN JANUARY! WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. EVEN WITH
THE EXTREMELY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERED BY CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...SO LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 40 EACH NIGHT...UPPER 30S FAR NW...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
LIMITED.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE STRONG WINDS
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND SANDY. GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOW MIXING LEVEL WINDS OF 25-40 MPH...WHICH COULD SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MAX GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER...SINCE GUIDANCE IS
INITIALIZING WITH PRESSURE FAR ABOVE LATEST RECON THROUGH
SANDY...GRADIENT MAY BE STRONGER THAN PREDICTED AND THESE WINDS
COULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER. DO NOT EXPECT FULL MIXING TO THIS LEVEL
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF THIS WILL BE REALIZED...AND EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH...GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON TUESDAY...AND
ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY AS OVERALL BL WINDS EASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITION REMAINS INTACT
WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. DEEP TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH SANDY MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS WILL THE
OVERALL PATTERN...AS IT MOVES EAST WITH SUBTLE TROUGHING MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INCESSANT NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY COUPLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FINALLY ABATES FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS COOLED FOR THE FIRST FEW MORNINGS DESPITE SUBTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AIR MASS MODIFICATION. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND I HAVE TRENDED DOWN
MORNING LOWS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AM. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRETTY GOOD
COVERAGE FOR UPPER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. AFOREMENTIONED DRY PROFILE
MAY PRECLUDE ANY FROST ADVISORIES BUT THE SMALL POSSIBILITY REMAINS
IN PLAY. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME ADVECTION OF HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN CLOUD
LAYER 3-6KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS...NOW
POST-TROPICAL STORM SANDY...MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHEAST. STRONG
CAA FROM SANDY HAS CREATED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE NORTH-SOUTH RUNWAYS
AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE. INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAY SEE ISOLATED -SHRA AT
KLBT/KILM...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS FURTHER TIGHTENED
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY TO FREQUENTLY
GUST 35 KT AND HIGHER. AS A RESULT...HAVE RAISED GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE ILM NC WATERS...AND STRONGLY WORDED THE SCA ACROSS THE ILM SC
WATERS. WILL HAVE A RATHER LARGE RANGE OF SEAS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CLOSELY PARALLEL THE COAST-LINE RESULTING IN A LOWER RANGE OF
SEAS. THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIER
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH 9 FT AND HIGHER LIKELY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL DOMINATE SIG. SEAS...RESULTING WITH DOMINATE PERIODS OF 5 TO
7 SECONDS. AN UNDERLYING 2 TO 3 FT EASTERLY REMNANT SANDY SWELL
AT 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE ILM WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM
MONDAY...MORE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES HER INFLUENCE
OVER THE WEATHER. AS SANDY SITS AND SPINS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT...FORCING STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE HIGH AMPLITUDE
WAVES...WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT TUESDAY FALLING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 3-6
FT WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY
TURNING THE WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND OF WIND
HIGHEST EARLY WITH 3-5 FEET THURSDAY DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND INCREASINGLY REDUCED FUEL MOISTURES
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR BURNING ON TUESDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY OFFICIALS...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SC COUNTIES ON TUESDAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THREAT FOR FIRES TO GET OUT OF CONTROL.
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL COMBINE WITH
THE LOW FUEL MOISTURES AND RH VALUES AROUND 30-35%. MORE OF THE SAME
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY...SO RENEWED DANGER
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
STAY ABOVE THE RFW CRITERIA...SO NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE
CURRENTLY NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...FORECAST TIDE HEIGHTS FOR THIS EVENINGS
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER...INDICATE LEVELS TO BREACH
THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD OF 5.50 FT. LATEST FORECASTS
INDICATE READINGS COULD REACH 5.6 TO 5.9 FT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1130
PM THIS EVENING. OVERALL...TIDES THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING FROM
1.00 TO 1.25 FT ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME PRONE LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
ROADWAYS ALONG THE WILMINGTON WATER FRONT...ROADWAYS VICINITY OF
THE NC BATTLESHIP...STREETS BORDERING THE CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTH TO FORT FISHER SUCH AS ROADWAYS NEAR THE FORT
FISHER FERRY LANDING...AND CANAL DRIVE OF CAROLINA BEACH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ107-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF SANDY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 845 PM MONDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR DATE INDICATE
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN 1/4TH TO 1/3RD OF
THE ILM CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE FA REMAIN 10+ DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
AS A RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN 7+
MILES DURING ANY PCPN OCCURRENCE. THE CHANGES MADE TO THIS
OVERNIGHT UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA BASED
ON LATEST VARIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS.
CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST LOOKING AOK. WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...WOULD HAVE INCREASED MINS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...THE DECENT CAA CANCELS THAT OUT. SO BASICALLY NO CHANGE
TO THE MIN TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...SPOKE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GROWING
SPIRALING AIRMASS THAT IS HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING THE REGION BY
00Z. WITH IT WILL COME A SLIGHT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS BOTH OVER LAND
AND SEA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME WINDS MAY ABATE SLIGHTLY OVER LAND
AND VEER SLIGHTLY. CIRCULATION OF SANDY SO LARGE HOWEVER THAT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS A BREEZY NIGHT WITH WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...A LITTLE HIGHER N AND A LITTLE LOWER S.
VORT SPOKE HAS ALSO BEEN CAUSING A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS OVER NRN
ZONES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THAT HAVE FOR THE MOST PART FAILED TO
REACH THE GROUND OVER OUR ZONES. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR TO BE GROWING
A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUT GIVEN LARGE T/TD SPREAD FEEL THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY
LOCAL HIGH RES WRF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE SANDY WILL BE MERGING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ON TUESDAY...CREATING AN ENORMOUS VORTEX ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...KEEPING THE CAROLINAS UNDER ITS
INFLUENCE WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOL TEMPS EACH DAY.
AS THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND IT AND DOWN INTO THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH PVA TO
SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST MODERATE SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS
WELL...FURTHER SUPPORTING THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...W/NW WINDS WILL
ACT TO SOMEWHAT DRY THE COLUMN...INHIBIT MUCH PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND
THIS MAY END UP BEING MORE IN THE WAY OF THICK MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THAN SHOWERS. STILL...WILL CONTINUE INHERITED SCHC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN...BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG CAA WRAPPING BEHIND HURRICANE SANDY WILL DEVELOP IN EARNEST
ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 0C TUESDAY
NIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...AND TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPS MAXING OUT ONLY IN THE MID
50S...OR VALUES MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN JANUARY! WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. EVEN WITH
THE EXTREMELY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERED BY CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...SO LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 40 EACH NIGHT...UPPER 30S FAR NW...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
LIMITED.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE STRONG WINDS
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND SANDY. GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOW MIXING LEVEL WINDS OF 25-40 MPH...WHICH COULD SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MAX GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER...SINCE GUIDANCE IS
INITIALIZING WITH PRESSURE FAR ABOVE LATEST RECON THROUGH
SANDY...GRADIENT MAY BE STRONGER THAN PREDICTED AND THESE WINDS
COULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER. DO NOT EXPECT FULL MIXING TO THIS LEVEL
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF THIS WILL BE REALIZED...AND EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH...GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON TUESDAY...AND
ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY AS OVERALL BL WINDS EASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITION REMAINS INTACT
WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. DEEP TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH SANDY MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS WILL THE
OVERALL PATTERN...AS IT MOVES EAST WITH SUBTLE TROUGHING MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INCESSANT NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY COUPLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FINALLY ABATES FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS COOLED FOR THE FIRST FEW MORNINGS DESPITE SUBTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AIR MASS MODIFICATION. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND I HAVE TRENDED DOWN
MORNING LOWS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AM. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRETTY GOOD
COVERAGE FOR UPPER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. AFOREMENTIONED DRY PROFILE
MAY PRECLUDE ANY FROST ADVISORIES BUT THE SMALL POSSIBILITY REMAINS
IN PLAY. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME ADVECTION OF HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...GENERALLY CEILINGS 3-6K EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS AT KILM LIFTING TO VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MYR A TOUGH CALL SINCE CLOUD BANK HAS BEEN
FALLING JUST SHY OF THE AIRPORT FOR SOME REASON.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE SANDY HAS
RESULTED IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CAUSE CROSSWIND CONCERNS FOR NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATED RUNWAYS AS WELL AS TURBULENT LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE SOME THIS THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS INTO THE 20 KNOT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERNMOST TERMINALS KILM/KLBT BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE WILL BE OUT A WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS FURTHER TIGHTENED
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY TO FREQUENTLY
GUST 35 KT AND HIGHER. AS A RESULT...HAVE RAISED GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE ILM NC WATERS...AND STRONGLY WORDED THE SCA ACROSS THE ILM SC
WATERS. WILL HAVE A RATHER LARGE RANGE OF SEAS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CLOSELY PARALLEL THE COAST-LINE RESULTING IN A LOWER RANGE OF
SEAS. THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIER
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH 9 FT AND HIGHER LIKELY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL DOMINATE SIG. SEAS...RESULTING WITH DOMINATE PERIODS OF 5 TO
7 SECONDS. AN UNDERLYING 2 TO 3 FT EASTERLY REMNANT SANDY SWELL
AT 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE ILM WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM
MONDAY...MORE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES HER INFLUENCE
OVER THE WEATHER. AS SANDY SITS AND SPINS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT...FORCING STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE HIGH AMPLITUDE
WAVES...WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT TUESDAY FALLING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 3-6
FT WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY
TURNING THE WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND OF WIND
HIGHEST EARLY WITH 3-5 FEET THURSDAY DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND INCREASINGLY REDUCED FUEL MOISTURES
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR BURNING ON TUESDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY OFFICIALS...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SC COUNTIES ON TUESDAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THREAT FOR FIRES TO GET OUT OF CONTROL.
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL COMBINE WITH
THE LOW FUEL MOISTURES AND RH VALUES AROUND 30-35%. MORE OF THE SAME
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY...SO RENEWED DANGER
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
STAY ABOVE THE RFW CRITERIA...SO NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE
CURRENTLY NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ107-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS IN MONTANA THAT WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO WESTERN ND AFTER MIDNIGHT PER LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN.
BASED ON OBS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ROAD TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW MIX IN AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT TRENDS...WILL
STICK WITH RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
152 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW YORK TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS LARGE STORM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUING WITH THEME OF PREVIOUS UPDATE...WILL ENHANCE POPS MORE
FURTHER TO THE WEST AS BEST ENHANCED BAND HAS SET UP FROM NEAR
MADISON SW TO NEAR MT VERNON AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
NW. BOTH RUC AND HRRR SEEM TO BE ON TOP OF THIS SO WILL GENERALLY
USE AVERAGE OF THEIR QPF FIELDS TO DETERMINE POPS FOR REST OF TODAY.
SOME SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER WEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK IN FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH FOR
EAT HALF OF THE AREA SO WILL ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
MOVING THROUGH PA INTO NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND FIELD WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.
FOLLOWED THE NAM12 THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TO BE
BRIEF...POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN THIRD WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL WAVER BETWEEN SLIGHT CHANCE AND
LIKELY DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH ON THE NAM. BIG PROBLEM WILL BE
OF COURSE THE WIND AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THE STORM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WINDS OF 30 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO /OVER 50 KNOTS. AREA WHERE NO
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT COULD STILL SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY.
BASED ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HIGHEST WIND TIMING WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO CONTINUE TO LIKE THE
FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT. 5 DAY FORECAST FROM HPC IS 3 TO 4+ INCHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA. SIMILAR TO THE WIND
TIMING...BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE WAVES EXPECTED ON LAKE
ERIE COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE STORM...WILL ISSUE A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. LOWS IN THE 30S. JUST AN ASIDE
HERE...850MB TEMPS DO DROP TO -3C OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WOULD PREFER LOWER 850MB TEMPS BEFORE
FORECASTING SNOW. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING THURSDAY...THE REMNANT LOW FROM SANDY WILL BEGIN MOVING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH TROUGH STILL OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA...TO CONTINUE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH CHC TRENDING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION LOSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. DIDN/T WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC GIVEN HOW FAR OUT...BUT THINKING POPS MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE MORE DURING
THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT AT THIS POINT...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS COMPARED TO MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA...MOVING WEST BUT
SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING TOL AND FDY. IFR CONDITIONS
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST AND MAINLY FOR CEILINGS WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY MVFR. RAIN FROM SANDY WILL START MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AND START INCREASING MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD 30 KNOTS
BY LATE TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS...BUT NEW
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ADJUST IN EITHER DIRECTION. WAVES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
LAKE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH 18 FEET A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR OHZ003-007>012-089.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ009>014-019>023-029>033-038-047-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR PAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-
142>149-162>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
923 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW YORK TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS LARGE STORM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUING WITH THEME OF PREVIOUS UPDATE...WILL ENHANCE POPS MORE
FURTHER TO THE WEST AS BEST ENHANCED BAND HAS SET UP FROM NEAR
MADISON SW TO NEAR MT VERNON AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
NW. BOTH RUC AND HRRR SEEM TO BE ON TOP OF THIS SO WILL GENERALLY
USE AVERAGE OF THEIR QPF FIELDS TO DETERMINE POPS FOR REST OF TODAY.
SOME SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER WEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK IN FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH FOR
EAT HALF OF THE AREA SO WILL ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
MOVING THROUGH PA INTO NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND FIELD WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.
FOLLOWED THE NAM12 THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TO BE
BRIEF...POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN THIRD WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL WAVER BETWEEN SLIGHT CHANCE AND
LIKELY DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH ON THE NAM. BIG PROBLEM WILL BE
OF COURSE THE WIND AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THE STORM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WINDS OF 30 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO /OVER 50 KNOTS. AREA WHERE NO
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT COULD STILL SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY.
BASED ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HIGHEST WIND TIMING WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO CONTINUE TO LIKE THE
FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT. 5 DAY FORECAST FROM HPC IS 3 TO 4+ INCHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA. SIMILAR TO THE WIND
TIMING...BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE WAVES EXPECTED ON LAKE
ERIE COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE STORM...WILL ISSUE A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. LOWS IN THE 30S. JUST AN ASIDE
HERE...850MB TEMPS DO DROP TO -3C OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WOULD PREFER LOWER 850MB TEMPS BEFORE
FORECASTING SNOW. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING THURSDAY...THE REMNANT LOW FROM SANDY WILL BEGIN MOVING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH TROUGH STILL OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA...TO CONTINUE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH CHC TRENDING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION LOSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. DIDN/T WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC GIVEN HOW FAR OUT...BUT THINKING POPS MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE MORE DURING
THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT AT THIS POINT...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS COMPARED TO MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND SLOWLY BACK WESTWARD. EXPECTING A SLOW WESTWARD
PUSH WITH THE RAIN GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
INTENSIFYING RAIN ACROSS THE EAST. ATTEMPTED SOME TIMING TO BRING
RAIN INTO CLE AND MFD...WITH RAIN AT ERI YNG AND CAK EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WESTERN SITES MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN
AT ALL THROUGH TODAY BUT THINKING THEY MAY HOLD ONTO CIGS JUST
INTO VFR CATEGORY.
FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WESTERN SITES MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WILL
PERSIST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY TODAY FROM THE NORTH. SUSTAINED
WINDS 14-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE. HIGHEST VALUES MAINLY
AT CLE AND ERI.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR NRN OH/NW PA MONDAY. NON-VFR MOST AREAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD 30 KNOTS
BY LATE TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS...BUT NEW
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ADJUST IN EITHER DIRECTION. WAVES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
LAKE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH 18 FEET A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ003-007>012-089.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>033-038-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW YORK TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS LARGE STORM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO MOVING NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS CONNECTS TO DEVELOPING
SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK. THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS ENTIRE LINE CONTINUING TO EXPAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA ESPECIALLY
AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAWN. THIS WILL THEN EXPAND/DRIFT WEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BY 18Z. WILL HAVE THE FAR NWRN CORNER
DRY...UNLESS THE FORMATTER GRABS ONTO A PIXEL OF SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP TO CAT POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LORAIN TO MFD LINE. HIGH TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
MOVING THROUGH PA INTO NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND FIELD WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.
FOLLOWED THE NAM12 THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TO BE
BRIEF...POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN THIRD WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL WAVER BETWEEN SLIGHT CHANCE AND
LIKELY DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH ON THE NAM. BIG PROBLEM WILL BE
OF COURSE THE WIND AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THE STORM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WINDS OF 30 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO /OVER 50 KNOTS. AREA WHERE NO
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT COULD STILL SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY.
BASED ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HIGHEST WIND TIMING WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO CONTINUE TO LIKE THE
FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT. 5 DAY FORECAST FROM HPC IS 3 TO 4+ INCHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA. SIMILAR TO THE WIND
TIMING...BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE WAVES EXPECTED ON LAKE
ERIE COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE STORM...WILL ISSUE A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. LOWS IN THE 30S. JUST AN ASIDE
HERE...850MB TEMPS DO DROP TO -3C OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WOULD PREFER LOWER 850MB TEMPS BEFORE
FORECASTING SNOW. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING THURSDAY...THE REMNANT LOW FROM SANDY WILL BEGIN MOVING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH TROUGH STILL OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA...TO CONTINUE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH CHC TRENDING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION LOSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. DIDN/T WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC GIVEN HOW FAR OUT...BUT THINKING POPS MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE MORE DURING
THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT AT THIS POINT...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS COMPARED TO MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT OBS INDICATING SOME AREAS OF DZ OR -RA
ACROSS SITES. WESTERN SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR...BUT BRING
CIGS DOWN AROUND 035 LATE IN AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING VFR THERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS THE WEST BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.
FURTHER EAST...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS. MVFR AND IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BUILDS BACK WEST INTO NRN OH. MVFR SITES
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO IFR WITH RAIN ALSO BUILDING BACK WESTWARD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE N AND NE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT LIKELY.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR NRN OH/NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NON-VFR
MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD 30 KNOTS
BY LATE TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS...BUT NEW
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ADJUST IN EITHER DIRECTION. WAVES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
LAKE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH 18 FEET A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ003-007>012-089.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>033-038-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AS OF 21Z WITH
SIGHTS ON SOUTHERN PA LATER TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON TUESDAY...THEN
LIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATL LOOP SHOWING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY
ONLY ARND 30 OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ALREADY FALLING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA AS THE DEEP...MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LATEST RECON INDICATES THAT
THE DEEPENING HAS LEVELED OFF AT 940MB. ALL MDL DATA CONTINUES TO
TRACK THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PA OVERNIGHT.
PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHERN NJ THROUGH SERN PA AND
INDICATIONS ARE THE STORM IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE...BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 30-40 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE. WITH GROUNDS BECOMING VERY
SATURATED...WE ARE ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF TREES BEGINNING TO
BE UPROOTED AS SOILS LOOSEN AND WINDS INCREASE. MDL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS REMNANTS OF SANDY PASS DIRECTLY OVR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT GUSTS LATER TUE AM BTWN
40-50 MPH...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST BEHIND THE LOW CENTER.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AFTER
2AM...WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING GOING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND ASSOC SUSCEPTIBILITY OF TREES TO TOPPLE.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO EASTERN PA AT
22Z AND LATEST NAMPARA AND RAP INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. STILL...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALL MDL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN PA...WHERE TOTALS BY TUES NIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 3-6
INCH RANGE. ACROSS NORTHERN PA...ENSEMBLE AND OPER RUNS BOTH
INDICATE TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE.
WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
LAURELS...WHERE WEB CAMS ALREADY SHOWING A LIGHT ACCUM AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER AIR
ACCOMPANYING APPROACH OF SANDY WILL CHANGE ANY SNOW BACK TO RAIN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD GO BACK TO
SNOW ON TUESDAY...AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE FILLING LOW.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL RATES DECREASING
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF GRADUALLY FILLING...POST-TROPICAL STORM
SANDY WILL BE DRIFTING RIGHT THRU CENTRAL PA.. RISING PRESSURE IN
THE CORE WILL SIGNAL THE STORM BEGINNING TO UNWIND...DIMINISHING
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL RELATIVELY STRONG WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS - DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. WE COULD ALSO SEE THE AREA OF WET SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EXPAND AS COLD AIR GETS RAPIDLY DRAWN INTO
THE CIRCULATION OF THE BY-THEN FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE THE SNOW ACCUMULATE...BUT
SOME GRASSY HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE A SLUSHY COATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT REMNANTS OF SANDY SPIN OVER
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NWD INTO NRN
NY STATE BY FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SANDY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDS ON WED...WITH PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A TYPICAL...
DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS...PSBLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS...RIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 00Z.
MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...AND LLWS.
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALSO
HAVE REPORTS OF WET SNOW SOUTH OF JST.
THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE SANDY MOVING ACROSS THE NJ COAST...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION TO THEN MOVE OVER SRN PA OVERNIGHT.
THE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
FOG AND THE RAIN WILL LIMIT VISBYS EVEN WHERE THE CIGS ARE AOA
1KFT. BUT THE BIGGEST TROUBLE IS THE WIND. THE NRLY WINDS WILL BE
RIPPING ALONG JUST ALOFT AND MIX DOWN 50KT GUSTS AT MANY TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL EVENING LONG. AS THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION NEARS AND IT PASSES FROM E-W ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE
STATE TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BACK A LITTLE AT FIRST...THEN VEER
TO THE NE/E LATER TONIGHT. THEY WILL ALSO SLACKEN AS THE STORM
BEGINS TO FILL...FRICTION INCREASES AND GRADIENT RELAXES. WIND
SHEAR IS A CONCERN AT FIRST...WITH MAINLY DIRECTIONAL CHANGES. BUT
MECHANICAL MIXING AND THE ASSOCD GUSTS WILL BE JUST AS STRONG AS
THE TOP OF THE LLWS LAYER/2KFT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
LLWS...BUT THE FCSTS OF 40-50KT GUSTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH BY
THEMSELVES.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE SWRN PART OF THE STATE
TUE AFT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER A BIT MORE. THE LOW WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH ONLY SLOWLY LATE TUES AND EARLY WED. RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TUES NIGHT AND WED.
SOME SN MAY MIX IN TONIGHT VCNTY JST...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT - AS THE ELEVATION AT THE TERMINAL MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS OCCURRING
JUST TO THE SOUTH AT THIS POINT...AS COLD AIR WRAPS COMPLETELY
AROUND THE STORM AND DROPS THE FZG LEVEL DOWN TO LESS THAN 2KFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...BREEZY. MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR
CENTRAL AND EAST.
FRI...MVFR -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...BCMG VFR EAST.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM HUDSON BAY...ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE SANDY HAS MADE THE
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OVER FAR EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL OHIO. AS SANDY MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS CIRRUS WELL AS IT STANDS
CURRENTLY...SO WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. DELTA T/S OF 13C
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS AT 925-900MB OF 40-45 KTS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER DOOR COUNTY...AND TIMING OF THE START
OF THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AT 06Z. LOOKED AT POSSIBLY EXPANDING
THE ADVISORY OVER THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE TOO NNW FOR MY LIKING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER BL WINDS.
TUESDAY...SANDY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST BUT CIRRUS
SHOULD COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEFT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE IN CASE THE DRY
AIR HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE MODELS SHOW. MAX WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (UP TO AROUND 900MB) WILL STAY RELATIVELY
STEADY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AT 30 KTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO 40-45 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. TAKING 80 PCT OF
THESE VALUES YIELDS WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND 35 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. DOOR COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KTS. EVEN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER...SO WILL KEEP
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
EXIT OF "SANDY" WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SANDY TO CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS
NORTH THROUGH PA DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SLOWLY TUE NIGHT AND WED. CIRRUS SHIELD TO PULL EAST
WED MORNING...GIVEN WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR THE TUE NIGHT PERIOD. CONTINUED ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER THE FAR EAST...AS DEEPER MOISTURE STILL RATHER SPARSE
ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
DRIER/LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN LATER WED...WITH WIND BACKING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT CENTRAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
MANY QUESTIONS LINGER IN THE LATER PERIODS AS PATTERN EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE. EC STRONGER WITH SHORT WAVE EXITING GULF
OF AK AND DROPPING INTO WI UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE THU
TIME FRAME WHILE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH...LIKEWISE WITH SYSTEM LATER PART OF WEAK GFS FURTHER NORTH
WITH SYSTEM...MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN FOR AREA. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE GOING FOR A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS GOING WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
GRB/MTW/SUE/MNM/ATW OVERNIGHT AND TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FURTHER WEST. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.
RDM
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT. AGREE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THOUGHTS THAT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DOOR
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUST BUT COVERAGE/FREQUENCY WILL NOT
BE THERE TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE. NNW WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STRONGER NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORELINE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
609 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM HUDSON BAY...ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE SANDY HAS MADE THE
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OVER FAR EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL OHIO. AS SANDY MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS CIRRUS WELL AS IT STANDS
CURRENTLY...SO WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. DELTA T/S OF 13C
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS AT 925-900MB OF 40-45 KTS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER DOOR COUNTY...AND TIMING OF THE START
OF THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AT 06Z. LOOKED AT POSSIBLY EXPANDING
THE ADVISORY OVER THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE TOO NNW FOR MY LIKING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER BL WINDS.
TUESDAY...SANDY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST BUT CIRRUS
SHOULD COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEFT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE IN CASE THE DRY
AIR HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE MODELS SHOW. MAX WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (UP TO AROUND 900MB) WILL STAY RELATIVELY
STEADY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AT 30 KTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO 40-45 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. TAKING 80 PCT OF
THESE VALUES YIELDS WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND 35 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. DOOR COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KTS. EVEN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER...SO WILL KEEP
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
EXIT OF "SANDY" WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SANDY TO CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS
NORTH THROUGH PA DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SLOWLY TUE NIGHT AND WED. CIRRUS SHIELD TO PULL EAST
WED MORNING...GIVEN WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR THE TUE NIGHT PERIOD. CONTINUED ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER THE FAR EAST...AS DEEPER MOISTURE STILL RATHER SPARSE
ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
DRIER/LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN LATER WED...WITH WIND BACKING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT CENTRAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
MANY QUESTIONS LINGER IN THE LATER PERIODS AS PATTERN EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE. EC STRONGER WITH SHORT WAVE EXITING GULF
OF AK AND DROPPING INTO WI UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE THU
TIME FRAME WHILE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH...LIKEWISE WITH SYSTEM LATER PART OF WEAK GFS FURTHER NORTH
WITH SYSTEM...MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN FOR AREA. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE GOING FOR A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS GOING WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT
GRB/MTW/SUE/MNM/ATW OVERNIGHT AND TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FURTHER WEST. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.
RDM
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT. AGREE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THOUGHTS THAT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DOOR
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUST BUT COVERAGE/FREQUENCY WILL NOT
BE THERE TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE. NNW WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STRONGER NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORELINE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
233 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SPRAWLING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO WISCONSIN TO HUDSON
BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER MINNESOTA
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS
STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS IT RUNS INTO
DRIER AIR. IN ADDITION...LAKE CLOUDS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER N-C
TO SW WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL
BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA...AND ANTICIPATE THEM DISSIPATING/THINNING AS
THEY APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL STILL HAVE BRISK NORTH WINDS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP COMPARED
TO FARTHER WEST. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE SHORELINE...THOUGH
DO TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THEM
CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE. IN THE END...WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THOUGH WITH LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOESNT MOVE MUCH ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SANDY MOVES EAST...WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE MORE GUSTY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. PERHAPS A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS COULD POP UP OVER N-C
WISCONSIN THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ANTICIPATE
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS
READINGS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AGAIN THE AFFECTS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ARE THE FOCUS
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE SAME TRENDS BRINGING
SANDY INLAND OVER NJ LATE MONDAY AFTN...THEN HAVE IT MEANDER INTO
WEST/CENTRAL MD/PA. MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS...THEN PCPN CHANCES
OVER CWA AS "SANDY" PUSHES WEST .
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER WI INTO TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND "SANDY"
TO TIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
WIND ADVISORY OVER DOOR CTY IN THE GRIDS AND THAT IS NOT REACHED
UNTIL 12Z TUE..THUS WILL PASS OFF ANY HEADLINES TO NEXT SHIFT.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS/CLOUDS THROUGH THE TUE TO WED PERIOD AS
BOTH EC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS RATHER DRY FROM 850-500 MB...WHILE
ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN ZONES.
"SANDY" TO EXIT SLOWLY WED NIGHT...THU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS EC
LATER PERIODS WITH SLOWER SOLUTION WITH GFS BEING TO PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN CURRENT PATTERN IN THE ATLANTIC. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS
WARMING TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR LATER HALF OF WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LAKE CLDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TUE MORNING ON THE LAKE. WAVES WILL LIKELY HIT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER MON AFTN...MAY NEED TO ISSUE SEPARATE SCA
IF START OF GALE PUSHED OFF LATER INTO MON NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE
BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....TROUGHING FROM
MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO ARKANSAS...STRONG
RIDGING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND HURRICANE SANDY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE. WITHIN THE TROUGHING...MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE ONE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AND THE OTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IN ARKANSAS. THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY AIR ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM MPX AND GRB PREVENTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS. TO THE WEST
OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLLECTION OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS ARE PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT SITUATED AROUND 285K. AIRMASS REMAINS COOL UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGHING WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MPX...GRB AND DVN ALL NEAR
-7C. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND SOUTH INTO THE KANSAS
CITY AREA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GET BLOCKED UP...DUE TO:
1. RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
2. HURRICANE SANDY PHASING AND STRENGTHENING NEAR NEW JERSEY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY IN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS.
AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GO
NOWHERE. IN ADDITION...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS WILL GO NOWHERE TOO...PREVENTING PRECIPITATION. NOTE...
THERE MAY BE SOME MID CLOUDS TRYING TO ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THESE LOOK TO THIN AS THEY RUN INTO
SUBSIDENCE AND BLOCKING PRODUCED ON THE WEST SIDE OF SANDY. A FEW
MID CLOUDS MAY ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THESE LOOK TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDING THEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GET A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS REFLECT THIS BY
CLIMBING TO -4 TO -6C AT 18Z TODAY AND TO -1 TO -4C AT 18Z MONDAY.
THUS...HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 40S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 40S ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS...STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TRYING TO PUSH
EASTWARD...BUT KEEPS RUNNING INTO DEEP CLOSED OFF UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTAINING THE EXTRATROPICAL STATE OF SANDY.
THUS...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD OR NEARBY. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT THE RIDGE
COULD RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
SANDY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN WITH THE BLOCKING IN
PLACE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER LOOKS
LIMITED TOO...WITH JUST SOME PERIODS OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE BLOCKED UP
PATTERN...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE JUST SLOWLY...CLIMBING TO +1
TO -2C AT 18Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY END UP
A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOWS ON THE OTHER HAND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL BOTH NIGHTS...AGAIN DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD
HAVE SOME PASSING CLOUDS TO LIMIT THE COOLING. IN GENERAL...STAYED
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TOWARDS THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
28.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SAME GENERAL
THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...BUT
THERE ARE MAJOR TIMING ISSUES. MUCH OF THE PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS HOW AND WHEN THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING AND
EXTRATROPICAL SANDY LIFTS OUT. ALL MODELS KEEP STRONG RIDGING IN THE
DAVIS STRAIGHT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...SO ANY EJECTION OF THAT DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. AT THE SAME TIME
THERE IS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. GETTING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY TROUGHING COMING INTO CALIFORNIA OFF THE PACIFIC. IT IS
THIS TROUGH WHICH WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW FAR EAST THAT
TROUGHING MAKES IT...WITH THE 28.00Z GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE 27.12Z/28.00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING IT LIFTS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
IN SUMMARY...THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. FOR THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
OF HAVING SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SIGNAL IS VERY
WEAK AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM DUE TO BOTH AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND THEN WARM ADVECTION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED IN THE 27.12Z/28.00Z
ECMWF. THIS FRONT COULD DEFLECT SOME OF THE WARMER AIR TRYING TO
COME UP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY THEN
HOLDS THEM STEADY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU MON AS THE SFC-700MB RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVER WI/IA. WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT/MON...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS IN THE 7K-10K FT
RANGE EXPECTED OVER THE TAF SITES INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
556 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE
BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....TROUGHING FROM
MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO ARKANSAS...STRONG
RIDGING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND HURRICANE SANDY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE. WITHIN THE TROUGHING...MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE ONE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AND THE OTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IN ARKANSAS. THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY AIR ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM MPX AND GRB PREVENTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS. TO THE WEST
OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLLECTION OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS ARE PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT SITUATED AROUND 285K. AIRMASS REMAINS COOL UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGHING WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MPX...GRB AND DVN ALL NEAR
-7C. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND SOUTH INTO THE KANSAS
CITY AREA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GET BLOCKED UP...DUE TO:
1. RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
2. HURRICANE SANDY PHASING AND STRENGTHENING NEAR NEW JERSEY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY IN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS.
AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GO
NOWHERE. IN ADDITION...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS WILL GO NOWHERE TOO...PREVENTING PRECIPITATION. NOTE...
THERE MAY BE SOME MID CLOUDS TRYING TO ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THESE LOOK TO THIN AS THEY RUN INTO
SUBSIDENCE AND BLOCKING PRODUCED ON THE WEST SIDE OF SANDY. A FEW
MID CLOUDS MAY ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THESE LOOK TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDING THEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GET A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS REFLECT THIS BY
CLIMBING TO -4 TO -6C AT 18Z TODAY AND TO -1 TO -4C AT 18Z MONDAY.
THUS...HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 40S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 40S ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS...STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TRYING TO PUSH
EASTWARD...BUT KEEPS RUNNING INTO DEEP CLOSED OFF UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTAINING THE EXTRATROPICAL STATE OF SANDY.
THUS...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD OR NEARBY. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT THE RIDGE
COULD RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
SANDY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN WITH THE BLOCKING IN
PLACE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER LOOKS
LIMITED TOO...WITH JUST SOME PERIODS OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE BLOCKED UP
PATTERN...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE JUST SLOWLY...CLIMBING TO +1
TO -2C AT 18Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY END UP
A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOWS ON THE OTHER HAND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL BOTH NIGHTS...AGAIN DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD
HAVE SOME PASSING CLOUDS TO LIMIT THE COOLING. IN GENERAL...STAYED
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TOWARDS THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
28.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SAME GENERAL
THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...BUT
THERE ARE MAJOR TIMING ISSUES. MUCH OF THE PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS HOW AND WHEN THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING AND
EXTRATROPICAL SANDY LIFTS OUT. ALL MODELS KEEP STRONG RIDGING IN THE
DAVIS STRAIGHT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...SO ANY EJECTION OF THAT DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. AT THE SAME TIME
THERE IS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. GETTING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY TROUGHING COMING INTO CALIFORNIA OFF THE PACIFIC. IT IS
THIS TROUGH WHICH WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW FAR EAST THAT
TROUGHING MAKES IT...WITH THE 28.00Z GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE 27.12Z/28.00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING IT LIFTS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
IN SUMMARY...THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. FOR THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
OF HAVING SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SIGNAL IS VERY
WEAK AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM DUE TO BOTH AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND THEN WARM ADVECTION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED IN THE 27.12Z/28.00Z
ECMWF. THIS FRONT COULD DEFLECT SOME OF THE WARMER AIR TRYING TO
COME UP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY THEN
HOLDS THEM STEADY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
556 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
SCATTERED-BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH BASES AOA 8KFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH MAINLY KRST TODAY. THE TROUGH AND
CLOUDS WILL NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR CONTINUED QUIET/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE
BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....TROUGHING FROM
MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO ARKANSAS...STRONG
RIDGING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND HURRICANE SANDY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE. WITHIN THE TROUGHING...MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE ONE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AND THE OTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IN ARKANSAS. THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY AIR ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM MPX AND GRB PREVENTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS. TO THE WEST
OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLLECTION OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS ARE PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT SITUATED AROUND 285K. AIRMASS REMAINS COOL UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGHING WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MPX...GRB AND DVN ALL NEAR
-7C. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND SOUTH INTO THE KANSAS
CITY AREA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GET BLOCKED UP...DUE TO:
1. RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
2. HURRICANE SANDY PHASING AND STRENGTHENING NEAR NEW JERSEY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY IN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS.
AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GO
NOWHERE. IN ADDITION...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS WILL GO NOWHERE TOO...PREVENTING PRECIPITATION. NOTE...
THERE MAY BE SOME MID CLOUDS TRYING TO ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THESE LOOK TO THIN AS THEY RUN INTO
SUBSIDENCE AND BLOCKING PRODUCED ON THE WEST SIDE OF SANDY. A FEW
MID CLOUDS MAY ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THESE LOOK TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDING THEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GET A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS REFLECT THIS BY
CLIMBING TO -4 TO -6C AT 18Z TODAY AND TO -1 TO -4C AT 18Z MONDAY.
THUS...HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 40S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 40S ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS...STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TRYING TO PUSH
EASTWARD...BUT KEEPS RUNNING INTO DEEP CLOSED OFF UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTAINING THE EXTRATROPICAL STATE OF SANDY.
THUS...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD OR NEARBY. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT THE RIDGE
COULD RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
SANDY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN WITH THE BLOCKING IN
PLACE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER LOOKS
LIMITED TOO...WITH JUST SOME PERIODS OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE BLOCKED UP
PATTERN...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE JUST SLOWLY...CLIMBING TO +1
TO -2C AT 18Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY END UP
A COUPLE DEGREES AT MOST WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOWS ON THE OTHER HAND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL BOTH NIGHTS...AGAIN DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD
HAVE SOME PASSING CLOUDS TO LIMIT THE COOLING. IN GENERAL...STAYED
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TOWARDS THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
28.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SAME GENERAL
THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...BUT
THERE ARE MAJOR TIMING ISSUES. MUCH OF THE PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS HOW AND WHEN THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING AND
EXTRATROPICAL SANDY LIFTS OUT. ALL MODELS KEEP STRONG RIDGING IN THE
DAVIS STRAIGHT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...SO ANY EJECTION OF THAT DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. AT THE SAME TIME
THERE IS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. GETTING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY TROUGHING COMING INTO CALIFORNIA OFF THE PACIFIC. IT IS
THIS TROUGH WHICH WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW FAR EAST THAT
TROUGHING MAKES IT...WITH THE 28.00Z GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE 27.12Z/28.00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING IT LIFTS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
IN SUMMARY...THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. FOR THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
OF HAVING SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SIGNAL IS VERY
WEAK AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM DUE TO BOTH AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND THEN WARM ADVECTION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED IN THE 27.12Z/28.00Z
ECMWF. THIS FRONT COULD DEFLECT SOME OF THE WARMER AIR TRYING TO
COME UP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY THEN
HOLDS THEM STEADY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LSE/RST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID LEVEL 4-6KFT CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM DISSOLVES AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRY RIDGE ALREADY
IN PLACE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CONERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND.
MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT
HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A
BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR
ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM
CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG.
CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT
NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL.
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET
WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN
WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR
WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA
BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION
JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY
NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER.
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT
MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG.
HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF
MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS
EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER
IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT
APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH WINDS...LLWS
OVERNIGHT AND WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AT KBMI...KDEC AND KCMI. PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TIGHTEN ACRS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SANDY SLOWLY PUSHES WEST AND
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. ALREADY SEEING LLWS
CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 45-50 KTS AT
AROUND 2000 FEET OFF OF THE ILX VAD WIND PROFILE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THAT MIX TO THE SFC
TOMORROW MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20-25KTS COMMON FROM BMI AND
DEC EAST...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. FURTHER WEST...NORTH WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATER
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TOMORROW AFTN. AS FAR AS ANY CLOUDS...WE
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL (20000-25000 FEET) MOISTURE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED CU MIXED IN DURING THE DAY.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL AFFECT INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A SYSTEM OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TAKE CHARGE OF
OUR WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE BACK FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SANDY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
MAIN ISSUES WINDS AND POPS.
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY TO ENTIRE AREA. BUFKIT FOR BOTH GFS AND NAM
INDICATED WE SHOULD MAKE IT ON GUSTS AS MECHANICAL MIXING
COMBINES WITH A LITTLE HEATING TO PRODUCE AN ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE.
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE GETTING RIGHT
NOW...MAV WINDS LOOK BETTER THAN THOSE FROM MET. HOWEVER RELUCTANT
TO BUY ALL THE WAY INTO ONE MODEL PENDING 12Z ROABS SO WILL USE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CUT OFF LIKE A KNIFE AS SANDY WRAPS UP.
MOS OFTEN SMOOTHS TOO MUCH WITH THESE VERY SHARP CUTOFFS. WHAT I
DID WAS GO AT LEAST LIKELY WHERE NAM QPF WAS A HUNDREDTH OR MORE.
THIS TAKES LIKELY AREA WEST OF ANY GUIDANCE...BUT ON OTHER HAND
NAM WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL ABOUT TAKING QPF WEST.
DUAL POL INDICATES RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN FROM EAST SO WILL
MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SNOW DURING MORNING. ANY SNOW SHOULD END
AFTER SUN COMES UP. USED RUC QPF TO ESTIMATE HOW FAR WEST PRECIP
WOULD COME DURING MORNING.
TO EXTENT GUIDANCE DISAGREES ABOUT TEMPS...COOLER MAV LOOKS BEST
CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
MODELS DO AGREE ABOUT WINDS SLOWING EARLY TONIGHT AND DROPPING
ADVISORY AT 8 PM STILL LOOKS OK. MET REMAINS HIGHER THAN MAV AND WILL
CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS PENDING FURTHER GUIDANCE.
WITH SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP STILL LIKELY...USED GFS QPF OF ONE
HUNDREDTH INCH FOR LIKELY BOUNDARY. THIS STILL TOOK LIKELY
FARTHER WEST THAN GUIDANCE...BUT GFS WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE ABOUT
TAKING QPF WEST.
SLIGHT WARMER MET TEMPS LOOKED BEST TONIGHT CONSIDERING CLOUDS
AND WIND.
FARTHER OUT JUST TOOK MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE CONCENTRATING ON
EARLIER PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE START OF EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EURO ARE
DIFFERING IN REGARD TO SANDY/S REMNANTS. THE EURO IS SHOWING A
SPLIT INTO 2 CUT-OFF LOWS...ONE OF WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTHEAST
INDIANA WITH LINGERING WINDS AND RAIN. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS SHOWING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS HINTING AT NO PRECIP
THOUGH...AND HAVE NO DEFINITIVE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THAT
FORECAST.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND HAS PRECIP IN CENTRAL INDIANA BY SATURDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS INDICATING SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST
INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A BLEND OF THE MODELS...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPS...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING
ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH 45 TO 50
KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUSTS.
LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY FURTHER WEST...WHICH APPEARS
WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL CUTOFF WILL
BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT
TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE TOP OF MVFR
AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL AFFECT INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A SYSTEM OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TAKE CHARGE OF
OUR WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE BACK FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SANDY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
MAIN ISSUES WINDS AND POPS.
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY TO ENTIRE AREA. BUFKIT FOR BOTH GFS AND NAM
INDICATED WE SHOULD MAKE IT ON GUSTS AS MECHANICAL MIXING
COMBINES WITH A LITTLE HEATING TO PRODUCE AN ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE.
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE GETTING RIGHT
NOW...MAV WINDS LOOK BETTER THAN THOSE FROM MET. HOWEVER RELUCTANT
TO BUY ALL THE WAY INTO ONE MODEL PENDING 12Z ROABS SO WILL USE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CUT OFF LIKE A KNIFE AS SANDY WRAPS UP.
MOS OFTEN SMOOTHS TOO MUCH WITH THESE VERY SHARP CUTOFFS. WHAT I
DID WAS GO AT LEAST LIKELY WHERE NAM QPF WAS A HUNDREDTH OR MORE.
THIS TAKES LIKELY AREA WEST OF ANY GUIDANCE...BUT ON OTHER HAND
NAM WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL ABOUT TAKING QPF WEST.
DUAL POL INDICATES RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN FROM EAST SO WILL
MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SNOW DURING MORNING. ANY SNOW SHOULD END
AFTER SUN COMES UP. USED RUC QPF TO ESTIMATE HOW FAR WEST PRECIP
WOULD COME DURING MORNING.
TO EXTENT GUIDANCE DISAGREES ABOUT TEMPS...COOLER MAV LOOKS BEST
CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
MODELS DO AGREE ABOUT WINDS SLOWING EARLY TONIGHT AND DROPPING
ADVISORY AT 8 PM STILL LOOKS OK. MET REMAINS HIGHER THAN MAV AND WILL
CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS PENDING FURTHER GUIDANCE.
WITH SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP STILL LIKELY...USED GFS QPF OF ONE
HUNDREDTH INCH FOR LIKELY BOUNDARY. THIS STILL TOOK LIKELY
FARTHER WEST THAN GUIDANCE...BUT GFS WAS MOST CONSERVATIVE ABOUT
TAKING QPF WEST.
SLIGHT WARMER MET TEMPS LOOKED BEST TONIGHT CONSIDERING CLOUDS
AND WIND.
FARTHER OUT JUST TOOK MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE CONCENTRATING ON
EARLIER PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE START OF EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EURO ARE
DIFFERING IN REGARD TO SANDY/S REMNANTS. THE EURO IS SHOWING A
SPLIT INTO 2 CUT-OFF LOWS...ONE OF WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTHEAST
INDIANA WITH LINGERING WINDS AND RAIN. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS SHOWING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS HINTING AT NO PRECIP
THOUGH...AND HAVE NO DEFINITIVE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THAT
FORECAST.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND HAS PRECIP IN CENTRAL INDIANA BY SATURDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS INDICATING SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST
INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A BLEND OF THE MODELS...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPS...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING
ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH 45 TO 50
KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUSTS.
LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY FURTHER WEST...WHICH APPEARS
WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL CUTOFF WILL
BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT
TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE TOP OF MVFR
AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND HEAD WEST TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEREBY INCREASING WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING FURTHER
WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
SANDY HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING
QUICKLY WESTWARD INTO MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA AS OF 01Z. CLOUD
SHIELD HAS COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER AND THICKER CEILINGS NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 40S AS OF 01Z WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25-35MPH COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.
SANDY SPED ASHORE AROUND 22Z...A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. RAP AND HRRR ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS WEST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THE 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND OP GFS APPEAR TO
BE FOLLOWING SUIT. ONE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WITH EXPANSION OF LIGHT
PRECIP INTO EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT IS THE NOTICEABLE AXIS
OF DRIER AIR PRESENT ALONG THE INDIANA-OHIO BORDER...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. SUSPECT THIS MAY BE AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STEADILY
MOISTENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER EASTERN COUNTIES ALL NIGHT...BUT
PRESENCE OF THE DRIER AIR MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
FULLY MOISTEN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. ONCE IT DOES
THOUGH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IN
THE FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. HAVE EXPANDED POPS JUST A
BIT TO THE WEST AND BUMPED THEM UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINLY RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE...BUT SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN
PERIODICALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES. TWEAKED WIND GRIDS A BIT BUT OVERALL GRIDS LOOKED GOOD.
STILL ANTICIPATING AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONGER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARRIVE. GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SANDY REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO
KEEP IT GOING. MODEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE RANGING FROM 35
TO 50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER VALUES
TO THE SOUTHWEST. NAM SHOWS THESE DROPPING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT GFS
KEEPS STRONGER VALUES GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY GOING AS IS THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST AS SANDY
TRAVERSES WEST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER FORCING AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO AMOUNT TO MUCH /AT MOST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST FOR A STORM TOTAL/ SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST
FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST. AS THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SANDY MOVE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL PULL MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY ONLY SOME
SMALL CHANCES HANG AROUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
FORMERLY KNOWN AS SANDY TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN AND DRY WEATHER TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
TRIES TO INTRODUCE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY BUT GFS/ECMWF DO NOT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK NEAR WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
FOR THE SAME REASON. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS AGREE ON FINALLY ALLOWING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD DEGREE OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMUP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.
FINALLY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
REGIONAL OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
MAINLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT IND. IND WILL REMAIN VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
PUSHES WEST. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY MID MORNING
ONWARD...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH 45 TO 50
KT AT TIMES...THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40KT GUSTS.
LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE SANDY FURTHER WEST...WHICH APPEARS
WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL CUTOFF WILL
BE RELATIVELY SHARP...STARTING TO APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT
TO IND...AND MAY COME CLOSER TO LAF/HUF/BMG THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE P6SM SHOWERS AND CLOUD AT THE TOP OF MVFR
AT IND...WITH LOW END VFR AND VCSH AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-029>031-
036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-071-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF HAS HELPED STEER
HURRICANE SANDY WESTWARD ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD
AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WRN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ASSOC
WITH THE UPR DIV OF JET MAX HAS EDGED INTO THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY HAVE REACHED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN EAST COAST STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE NORTH WINDS AOA 40 KT
WITHIN MIXED LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FOUR ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THUS...PER COORDINATION WITH
APX HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALGER...DELTA...LUCE
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 09Z TONIGHT FOR
ALGER AND LUCE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER NORTH WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FOR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES HAVE
STARTED THE HEADLINE AT 12Z TUE. ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUE
EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES AT WHICH TIME PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORM OVER WRN
PA.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING FCST AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PCPN
ASSOC WITH EAST COAST STORM STAYS EAST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z TUE. BOTH
GFS AND NAM THEN INDICATE PCPN SPREADING SLOWLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS 850-800 FGEN FORCING INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPR DIVERGENCE OF
STRONG UPR JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO WRN QUEBEC. BOTH
GFS AND PARTICULARLY NAM SNDGS OVER ERN UPR MI WANT TO HOLD ONTO COLD
LAYER FROM SFC TO NEAR 3KFT THRU TUESDAY DESPITE WAA OCCURRING AT 850
MB ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING
THERE WON`T BE SOME MODERATION/WARMING OF NEAR SFC LYR DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY GIVEN COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND NRLY ONSHORE FLOW
OFF RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR (MID TO UPPER 40S TEMPS).
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS FAR EAST TAPERING TO LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC NEAR MQT
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHOW UP
OVER MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BEING THE
RESULT.
THE RETROGRADING SFC LOW MOVING OVER W PA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N HUDSON BAY...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
DOWN THOUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
GOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE E COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
SWING IN FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MQT COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND W QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. THIS IS STILL THE 6TH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...SO WILL
NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH IT QUITE YET...AS THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY A FEW
SMALLER POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BETWEEN -0
TO -4C THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY ON N-NNW WINDS...BEFORE BRIEFLY FALLING
TO AROUND -8C OVER THE W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW
LINGERING ALOFT BEHIND THE THE NEXT 500MB LOW SWINGING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES FROM SATURDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NW FLOW OVERHEAD AT
12Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TO FAR E MN. THE
29/06Z GFS IS INITIALLY ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN THE 19/00Z ECMWF. THE
29/12Z REMAINS AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE 29/12Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. WILL HEDGE THE MID RANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
AS A RIDGE FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AN
INTENSE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST PA DRIFTS TO THE WEST...THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN INCREASING NRLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTO KSAW. THE UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN BKN MVFR CIGS. SNOW...POSSIBLY
MIXED INITIALLY WITH RAIN...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KSAW. MDL TRENDS SUGGEST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH VSBYS
DROPPING INTO THE IFR RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT
WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE... POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD
AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MIZ006-007.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MIZ013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
540 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
FORMER HURRICANE SANDY IS NOW MOVG SLOWLY WWD OVR S-CENTRAL PA
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IN SW PA BY MID-DAY. THE
LATEST RAP SHOWS THE LOW AT 972MB...OR -6 SD BELOW NORMAL. BANDS
OF MOD RAINS CAN BE FOUND OVER N-CENTRAL PA. THE BULK OF THE PCPN
REMAINS ON THE SWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS
MAXIMIZED DUE TO ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE N SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...BFD IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN
MDT. PTYPE ACRS MOST OF WRN PA IS RAIN...WITH RA/SN MIX ACRS THE
HIER ELEVATIONS AOA 2200FT IN SOMERSET CO. THE COMBINATION OF
MELTING-INDUCED COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RA/SN MIX
THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST AROUND
POST-TROPICAL SANDY...OBSERVED/FCST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE NOW
BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WE DOWNGRADED TO A
WIND ADVY WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 45 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
SATURATED SOILS...THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS MAY STILL KNOCK DOWN
TREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE LATEST
MODELS...TURNING MORE NWWD THIS AFTN THEN NWD THROUGH TNT. PCPN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 24HR TOTALS ENDING 12Z WED LESS THAN 1 INCH.
LLVL COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO CENTRAL PA /FROM THE SOUTH/ THROUGH
THE AFTN...WITH SREF H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -3 DEGREES C. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ENOUGH EVAP COOLING/WET BULB
EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME TIME OF DAY TO ALLOW FOR WET SNOW TO MIX WITH
PDS OF -RA OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL...BUT THE HIGH RES SREF/RAP/NAM12KM/NAM4KM ALL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A RA/SN MIX BY 18Z. FEEL THAT CHC FOR WET SNOW MIX IN WITH
RAIN IS BETTER AFTER DARK...BUT WILL MENTION CHC SNOW FOR THE AFTN
PERIOD IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NO ACCUM EXPECTED. A CHANGE
BACK TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET
CO AS THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT LATER TONIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE WSW FOR SOMERSET RIDGES IN EFFECT UNTL 8 PM.
MOST AREAS WILL RECORD EARLY MORNING HIGHS WITH TEMPS STEADY TO
FALLING /NON-DIURNAL/ INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING SANDY WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AS THE STORM/S
REMNANTS CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM FILLS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL SHUNT THE REMAINING UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WEEKEND.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED AS A RESULT
WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDS LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ON
FRIDAY WITH WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...PSBLY MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS. BY SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AND MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
30/09Z...UPDATE
NO SIG CHANGES FOR THE INTERMEDIATE TAF UPDATE. THE CENTER OF
POST-TROPICAL SANDY IS NOW JUST NORTH OF KHGR.
30/06...
RADAR SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOC WITH POST-TROPICAL SANDY
MOVG WWD FROM KTHV AS OF 06Z. BANDS OF MOD TO OCNL HVY RNFL ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHICH IS FCST TO TRACK
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CIGS AND VISBYS
IN THE IFR-LIFR CATG AT BFD/JST...WITH MARGINAL MVFR CONDS
PREVAILING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOC
WITH THE VERY DEEP POST-TROPICAL LOW WILL MAINTAIN LLWS EARLY
TODAY. STG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...BREEZY. MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR
WITH ISOLD -SHRA CENTRAL AND EAST.
FRI...MVFR -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...BCMG VFR EAST.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING REMNANTS OF
SANDY NOW OVER WASHINGTON DC AREA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WAS RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WAS PRODUCING
BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE
SHOWED A VEIL OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO WI/IL. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER REGION...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA.
30.12Z NCEP MODELS/29.21Z SREF/29.12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS GETTING SHUNTED NORTH
INTO NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF SANDY
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SETTING UP AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AS
DEEPER MIXING TAKES PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE
45-50 RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
30.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
BOTH MODELS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1117 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF SANDY HAS MOVED
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVES
DOWN FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH
SANDY TRACKING TO THE WEST AND RUNNING INTO THIS RIDGE. EXPECT
GUSTS TO BE IN THE 16-24KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1032 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1032 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
CWA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY TO OUR
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. MAIN IMPACTS TO OUR AREA TODAY
AS A RESULT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTING THE FAR
EAST TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 40-45 MPH...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SEE 30-35 MPH. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
SANDY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE FORECAST TO
PROGRESS CLOSE TO EASTERN IL STATE BORDER...BUT LATEST MODELS
INDICATE OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SO HAVE TAKEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OUT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE...SO AN UPDATE WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
ECT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
STRONG WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAF FORECAST TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 38 KT FOR CMI AND AROUND 27 KT FOR PIA. THE
KILX VWP AND EARLY DATA FROM OUR 12Z ILX SOUNDING ARE SHOWING A
LACK OF LLWS. THE STRONGEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS ARE FARTHER OFF OF
THE SURFACE...MORE TOWARD 5K FT. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AND ARE GUSTING...THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE
LLWS FROM THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF FORECAST.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH CMI/BMI/DEC FROM THE EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY APPROACH WITHIN 10-15 MILES TO THE EAST...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. MID CLOUDS AT 3-4K FT MAY
OVERSPREAD CMI/BMI AT TIMES TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH DECREASED MIXING...BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST 10KT AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH CMI POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 15KT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND.
MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT
HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A
BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR
ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM
CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG.
CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT
NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL.
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET
WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN
WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR
WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA
BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION
JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY
NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER.
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT
MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG.
HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF
MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS
EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER
IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT
APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND.
MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT
HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A
BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR
ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM
CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG.
CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT
NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL.
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET
WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN
WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR
WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA
BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION
JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY
NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER.
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT
MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG.
HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF
MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS
EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER
IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT
APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
STRONG WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAF FORECAST TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 38 KT FOR CMI AND AROUND 27 KT FOR PIA. THE
KILX VWP AND EARLY DATA FROM OUR 12Z ILX SOUNDING ARE SHOWING A
LACK OF LLWS. THE STRONGEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS ARE FARTHER OFF OF
THE SURFACE...MORE TOWARD 5K FT. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AND ARE GUSTING...THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE
LLWS FROM THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF FORECAST.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH CMI/BMI/DEC FROM THE EAST. A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY APPROACH WITHIN 10-15 MILES TO THE EAST...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. MID CLOUDS AT 3-4K FT MAY
OVERSPREAD CMI/BMI AT TIMES TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH DECREASED MIXING...BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST 10KT AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH CMI POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 15KT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
FORMER HURRICANE SANDY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVR S-CENTRAL PA
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE LATEST RAP DEPICTS THE LOW DOWN TO
AT 980MB...OR -5 SD BELOW NORMAL. LGT-MOD RAIN BANDS CAN BE FOUND
OVER N-CENTRAL PA ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
BULK OF THE PCPN REMAINS ON THE SWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WHERE WARM
ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED DUE TO ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND
THE N SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...BFD IS STILL SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER THAN MDT AS OF 11Z. PTYPE ACRS MOST OF WRN PA IS
RAIN...WITH RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIER ELEVATIONS AOA 2200FT IN
SOMERSET CO. 730AM EDT SEVEN SPRINGS WEBCAM OB IS 30F AND SLOPES
ARE COVERED WITH SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING-INDUCED COOLING
AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RA/SN MIX THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST AROUND
POST-TROPICAL SANDY...OBSERVED/FCST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE NOW
WELL BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WE DOWNGRADED
TO A WIND ADVY. THE LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS AS THE P-GRADIENT CONTINUES TO UNRAVEL.
RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE BULK OF THE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT FROM SANDY HAS ALREADY SET THE WARNING PROCESS
IN MOTION...WITH FEW IF ANY ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE...WE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE LATEST
MODELS...TURNING MORE NWWD THIS AFTN THEN NWD THROUGH TNT. PCPN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 24HR TOTALS ENDING 12Z WED LESS THAN 1 INCH.
LLVL COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO CENTRAL PA /FROM THE SOUTH/ THROUGH
THE AFTN...WITH SREF H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -3 DEGREES C. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ENOUGH EVAP COOLING/WET BULB
EFFECTS CAN OVERCOME TIME OF DAY TO ALLOW FOR WET SNOW TO MIX WITH
PDS OF -RA OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL...BUT THE HIGH RES SREF/RAP/NAM12KM/NAM4KM ALL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A RA/SN MIX BY 18Z. FEEL THAT CHC FOR WET SNOW MIX IN WITH
RAIN IS BETTER AFTER DARK...BUT WILL MENTION CHC SNOW FOR THE AFTN
PERIOD IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NO ACCUM EXPECTED. A CHANGE
BACK TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET
CO AS THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT LATER TONIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE WSW FOR SOMERSET RIDGES IN EFFECT UNTL 8 PM.
MOST AREAS WILL RECORD EARLY MORNING HIGHS WITH TEMPS STEADY TO
FALLING /NON-DIURNAL/ INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING SANDY WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AS THE STORM/S
REMNANTS CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM FILLS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL SHUNT THE REMAINING UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WEEKEND.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED AS A RESULT
WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDS LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ON
FRIDAY WITH WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...PSBLY MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS. BY SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AND MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
30/12Z...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOC
WITH POST-TROPICAL SANDY JUST SOUTH OF KAOO. BANDS OF LGT TO MOD
RNFL WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHICH
IS FCST TO TRACK WWD INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT CIGS AND VISBYS TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE ATM COOLS
FROM THE TOP-DOWN. BACKED OFF ON THE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS BASED ON
THE LATEST TABULAR GUID. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL MIX WITH
RAIN AT KAOO/KUNV/KBFD BY LATER THIS AFTN AND HAVE ADDED SN TO
TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR TO VFR EAST.
FRI...MVFR -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...VFR EAST.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING REMNANTS OF
SANDY NOW OVER WASHINGTON DC AREA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WAS RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WAS PRODUCING
BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE
SHOWED A VEIL OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO WI/IL. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER REGION...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA.
30.12Z NCEP MODELS/29.21Z SREF/29.12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS GETTING SHUNTED NORTH
INTO NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF SANDY
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SETTING UP AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AS
DEEPER MIXING TAKES PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE
45-50 RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
30.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
BOTH MODELS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A FEED OF DRY AIR INTO THE TAF
SITES. THEREFORE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND POST-TROPICAL
STORM SANDY SHIFTING WEST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY NORTH WIND AT THE TAF SITES BY LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF
15-20 KT ARE ANTICIPATED...STRONGEST AT KLSE WHERE THE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSSO F
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1036 AM MDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK WITH CFWA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL. WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE THIS
TREND DEPICTED. SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...OVERALL...CURRENT TAFS LOOKING ON TRACK...THOUGH WINDS
HAVE REMAINED SOUTHERLY ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS. BOTH HRRR AND RUC
INDICATE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND TAF WINDS IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM MDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...MEAN FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BUILDING RIDGE OF DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
AIR SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF COLORADO THROUGH 12Z/
WEDNESDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND
NOW SPREADING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LONG SWATH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF THIN CIRRUS AND CIRRO-STRATUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
PERIODS OF THICKER STATIONARY LENTICULAR CLOUDS WITH THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH WIND TODAY ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LASTLY
TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE YESTERDAY WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS 6-11 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND BUILD
ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO NEXT OPEN WAVE MOVING
INLAND OVER THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENT LOW POPS IN FORECAST
LOOK FINE FOR NOW.
THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
CURRENT ZONES.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA AT
SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 12KTS. COULD SEE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS
PERIODICALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...
WITH THE THICKER WAVE CLOUDS MOST LIKELY UP NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1032 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
CWA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY TO OUR
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. MAIN IMPACTS TO OUR AREA TODAY
AS A RESULT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTING THE FAR
EAST TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 40-45 MPH...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SEE 30-35 MPH. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
SANDY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE FORECAST TO
PROGRESS CLOSE TO EASTERN IL STATE BORDER...BUT LATEST MODELS
INDICATE OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SO HAVE TAKEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OUT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE...SO AN UPDATE WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
ECT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH THE WINDS. TERMINALS ARE WEDGED BETWEEN
REMNANTS OF SANDY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EASTERN SITES...CMI/BMI/DEC...
SHOULD SEE SPEEDS A BIT STRONGER BETWEEN 30-35 KTS...WHILE PIA/SPI
STAYS AROUND 25-27 KTS. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL DIE OFF. OTHERWISE...MOST
OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY. THERE ARE
SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS INDIANA WHICH MAY EDGE INTO CMI BUT FOR NOW
WILL JUST LEAVE A SCT LAYER AT 4 KFT.
ECT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW STRONG NNW WINDS WILL GET TODAY ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN IL CLOSER TO REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE A BLEND.
MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND STAYED A BIT
HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND ALSO WENT A
BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THU HIGHS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 972 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH CAME ASHORE NEAR
ATLANTIC CITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AT 946 MB AT 00Z/7 PM
CDT EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH 90 MPH WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER IL WITH NNW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE UNDER 10 MPH OVER WESTERN IL. TEMPS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F...EXCEPT 31F AT GALESBURG.
CIRRUS SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SANDY HAD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
IL DURING THE NIGHT AND KEPT IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS RECENT
NIGHTS PLUS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING OVER EASTERN IL.
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO SW PA BY SUNSET AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNSET
WED. BUFKIT FROM VARIOUS MODELS LIKE NAM/GFS/SREF AND RAP SHOW
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON AT CMI AND HUF SO WILL INCREASE
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER EASTERN IL WHILE 10-15 MPH LOWER IN
WESTERN IL. THINK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR
WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER) TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF IL TODAY BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INDIANA
BORDER. HIGHS TODAY 50-55F AND COOLEST OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION
JUST EAST OF IL TODAY AND GETS CLOSEST TO EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY
NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER.
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL THINK GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F IS A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD SO WENT
MAINLY LOWER 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG.
HIGHS AGAIN 50-55 WED AND NOT QUITE AS WINDY WITH NW WINDS OF
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU AND FRI AS SANDY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH QPF
MOVING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND ALLBLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS
EARLIER AS SAT. GEM MODEL HOWEVER IS FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OVER
IL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG INTO IL ON SAT SO DOES NOT
APPEARS AS WARM LATE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPS TRYING TO GET CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SAT WITH LIGHT QPF N/NE OF THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF IL PER
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SAT. SO HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE W.
SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND A HI PRES RDG OVER MN IS
CAUSING STRONG N WINDS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SOLID GALES OVER LK SUP/MI AND SOME WIND ADVY GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE 12Z GRB ROAB INDICATES N WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AS LO AS
2K FT AGL AND WITHIN THE SFC-H875 MIXED LYR. OVER THE W CLOSER TO
THE MN RDG...WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER. THE TREND EARLY THIS AFTN HAS
BEEN FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH SLOWLY FILLING SANDY REMNANTS
IN PA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY TO THE
W THRU THE DAY. THE 12Z APX RAOB SHOWS A STABLE TEMP PROFILE MAINLY
BLO 0C...BUT THERE IS AN ELEVATED WARM LYR PRESENT ARND H85 WITH THE
12Z TEMP AT THAT LVL 2C. SO THE PCPN HAS BEEN A MIX...WITH MAINLY SN
AND RA. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER ERN UPR MI HAVE ALSO REPORTED SLEET
WITH THE WBLB BLO THE ELEVATED WARM LYR WELL BLO 0C. VERY DRY AIR
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB ROAB EXPLAINS THE SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD AND THE LIMITED PCPN INTENSITY... BUT MOISTENING OFF LK SUP
HAS LED TO PLENTY OF LO CLDS OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
WINDS AND PCPN COVERAGE/TYPE PLUS POTENTIAL SN AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THRU WED.
TNGT...THE REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNW AND
OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z WED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH PRES FALLS
WEAKENING THE MN RDG AS WELL THRU THE NGT...EXPECT WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. SO PLAN TO LET GOING WIND ADVYS EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED. BUT AS UPR HGTS CONT TO FALL...DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W...WITH THE W EDGE REACHING NEAR THE HURON MTNS
OR SO BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MSTR WL BE SPREADING TO THE
W...LARGER SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION AT H7 ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
SANDY/GENERAL DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY OVERALL.
THE 12Z NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
QPF...WITH AMOUNTS GREATER OVER THE E AND THE HURON MTNS...WHERE
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT/OMEGA/SOME LK ENHANCED COMPONENT WL ENHANCE
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND OFFSET THE MID LVL
DRYING. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP ON THE QPF FOR
THE SCNTRL...WITH LTL PCPN FCST IN THIS AREA...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ALSO MAINTAINING THE DRIER LLVLS. THERE SHOULD BE NO PCPN W OF A
LINE FM BARAGA TO IMT OR SO. GOING POPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. PTYPE WL
BE TRICKY WITH LACK OF LARGER SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MAINLY SN AS THE PTYPE...DZ MAY
DOMINATE AT TIMES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE NEAR SFC LYR. SOME WARM AIR INTRUDING FM THE E WL
ALSO MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LYR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. SO WL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SLEET IN
THAT AREA. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MSTR EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ AND SFC
TEMPS GENERALLY HOLDING ABV FRZG WITH LK SUP MODIFICATION OFFSETTING
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL BE NO MORE THAN A FEW
INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
WED...LO PRES/REMNANT OF SANDY IS FCST TO DRIFT N INTO WRN QUEBEC
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CORRESPONDING DIMINISHING WINDS OVER UPR
MI. THE DEEPER MSTR IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE E HALF...BUT
PERSISTENT LACK OF SGNFT UPR SUPPORT/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL CUT
BACK ON PCPN AMNTS AWAY FM AREAS THAT PICK UP SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN SLOWLY BACKING FLOW N TO NNW. BUT EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...WEAKENING CYC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING PCPN AMNTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
OUR SLOW MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE BY 00Z
THURSDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW MOVES FROM W PA THIS AFTERNOON TO W NY
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE N PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS W QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND E OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A MIXED BAG OF CHANGING PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
AS TEMPERATURES GO FROM BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT /PARTICULARLY OVER
W AND CENTRAL COUNTIES/ INTO THE 40S MOST AFTERNOONS.
THE RESULT OF THE LOW DRIFTING N FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE N-NW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE FIRST ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE REGION...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ON THURSDAY PUSHING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WIN OUT FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END
FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR COMPRISED OF 850MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -7C
WARMING TO A CWA AVERAGE -2C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MODELS HANDLE THE FCST PRETTY WELL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT
THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT 500MB LOW
PUSHING IN FROM ND/MN. THE MORE WRAPPED UP 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY/.
THE NEXT SFC LOW NEARING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE SET UP TO OUR
NW /BETWEEN S SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR N MANITOBA/ AT 18Z MONDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...SW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND BECOME MORE W TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAN THE 30/12Z ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
SIDE A BIT CLOSER TO THE PERSONALLY AND HPC PREFERRED ECMWF. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE WINDS FROM MONDAY ON IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES
ITS CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO MN AND AN INTENSE LOW OVER PA MOVING
NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KSAW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE 30KTS AT KSAW INTO EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 25KTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH AT KIWD AND KCMX OVERNIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE FLOWING OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BRING BKN CIG TO MVFR LEVELS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF RESIDUAL DRY AIR
WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCT AND/OR VFR.
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW -SN TO DEVELOP FOR KSAW THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE SNOW
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR...SO ONLY EXPECT -SHSN WITH
MINIMAL VIS RESTRICTIONS AT THE START. COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE
BY LATE EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS HAVE INDICATED VIS DOWN TO 2SM...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR KSAW TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
EXPECT SOLID N GALES TO 40-45 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY WED MORNING TO NO MORE THAN 30 KTS WED
AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE SANDY IN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N INTO SE CANADA AND WEAKENS. WAVES AS HI
AS 15-18 FT OVER THE SCENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ005>007.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-251-264-
265-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KC/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
345 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
PRIMARY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS SEASONABLY MILD AND FAIRLY
TRANQUIL PATTERN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A WEAK 1012MB LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING TWO MAIN PURPOSES AT THIS HOUR...FOR ONE
SEPARATING PRIMARILY EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA FROM PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WEST...AND IS ALSO
SETTING UP A RESPECTABLE TEMP GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS WITHIN MOST
OF THE CWA RANGING FROM ONLY MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S
WEST...WHILE JUST BARELY WEST OF THE CWA LOW-MID 70S PREVAIL AT
SITES SUCH AS NORTH PLATTE/MCCOOK. FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS TODAY
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST VALUES.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION...IN BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND THE DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH/POST-TROPICAL SANDY CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER PA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
CWA AT MID- AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF A MID
LEVEL DECK WAS SKIRTING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE ANOTHER BATCH
OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BLACK HILL REGION WAS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE
HORIZON. THE EASTERN NEBRASKA CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF AN 80+KT 300MB JET STREAK
POSITIONED OVERHEAD.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE BREEZES WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS POST-SUNSET TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE
40S ALL AREAS BY 03Z. FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THINGS GET
SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...AS SEVERAL HIGHER RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ALSO THE HRRR TRY BREAKING OUT WHAT
WOULD LIKELY BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MOST
LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS
FORCING...WHICH IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS APPEARS TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS A BIT CLEARER WHEN EXAMINING
SATURATION ALONG THE 305K ISENTROPIC SFC PER THE 12Z NAM...AND IS
ALSO CAPTURED IN THE NAM BY A BATCH OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
700MB WORKING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BASED ON 12 NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AM FAIRLY DOUBTFUL
THAT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL RESULT...GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP APPEARS TO JUSTIFY AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE...AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS
WORDING POST-MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT WOULD SEEM THE MOST FAVORED AREA
FOR THIS SPRINKLE/LIGHT RAIN IS NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES...DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL BRING THIS SPRINKLE
WORDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS AN OVERTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE.
AGAIN...NOT LOOKING LIKE ALL THAT BIG OF A DEAL...BUT NONETHELESS
A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALONG THESE SAME LINES...SKY
COVER WAS BOOSTED INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
SAME AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT AGAIN
QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...AM NOT
ADVERTISING A TRULY NON-DIURNAL CURVE...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A
FAIRLY EFFICIENT FALL THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...CHANGED LOWS VERY LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE CWA SETTLING BETWEEN 34-39
DEGREES.
FOR THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE VERY MILD HALLOWEEN IN A ROW...AND THE THIRD
TIME IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THAT HALLOWEEN HIGHS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S CWA-WIDE. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER GENERALLY NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BISECT THE CWA...SEPARATING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN THE EAST
FROM WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WERE INCREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS STILL ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 10-14 MPH
MOST AREAS. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES INTO THE CWA...SOME OF THE
WARMER AIR OBSERVED TODAY WEST OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA...AND HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS ROUGHLY 2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST NEARLY ALL AREAS...AND MAYBE NOT EVEN ENOUGH PER THE
NAM/MET SOLUTION. EVEN SO...NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 70S
EAST TO MID-UPPER 70S WEST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TOP 10-TO-15
WARMEST HALLOWEEN ON RECORD FOR MOST SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HWY 281. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN
INTO AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RANGE OF 18-20 PERCENT ACROSS
SOME OF THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY FIRE
DANGER MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW GIVEN THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL SHORT OF CRITICAL
20/25 MPH THRESHOLDS. FOCUSING ON PRECIP/CLOUD TRENDS...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES TO LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME
PERIOD...AS SUBTLE-TO-MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH A STEADY POST-SUNRISE
DEPARTURE OF ANY POTENTIALLY SOLID LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MAIN THEME: AN STRETCH OF PLEASANT AUTUMN WX WILL CONT THRU
FRI WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THEN A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE NICE WX RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAZARDS: NONE FORESEEABLE.
QPF: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN LOOK SCANT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV.
HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS OF SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE
NOV 10-14 TIMEFRAME.
BIG PICTURE: NAO IS NEGATIVE AND WHILE THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL
TEMPORARILY LOWER HGTS IN VICINITY OF GREENLAND OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH THAT HGT ANOMALIES WILL
REMAIN POSITIVE THRU MID-NOV. THIS FAVORS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PAC WILL YIELD A COUPLE OF
DECENT TROFS THAT COULD EVENTUALLY THREATEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POSSIBLE EVENT AROUND NOV 6TH.
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN CASE THEY DECIDE TO COME BACK TO IT.
TEMPS: MODELS ARE NOW DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR UNTIL AFTER
THU-FRI WHICH IS WHY WE STRUGGLED YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR THU.
THE EXTREME DISPARITY WITH 00Z MOS CYCLE HAS VANISHED AND THE 12Z
MET GUIDANCE IS NOW WARMER. FRI`S NOW LOOKING WARMER THAN IT DID
YESTERDAY AS WELL.
SOME TYPE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WED NGT. BELIEVE THE
COOLER AIR NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEAK THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU FRI AND
YANKS THE COOL FRONT SWD.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
WED NGT: WEAK FRONT/TROF PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANCE.
THU: M/SUNNY AND VERY NICE /65-76F/. 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. P-M/CLOUDY /63-76F/. 10 ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW CLOUDS: INCREASED SKY TO M/CLOUDY IN THE FRI NGT-SAT MRNG FCST
AND BELIEVE THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
SAT: M/CLOUDY AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER. AS OF NOW 53-61F AND THIS IS
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.
RAIN: THE PERSISTENT ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF HAS SWEPT THE QUALITY
LOW-LEVEL MSTR WELL S OF THE CONUS. MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT NIGHT:
DOES SYSTEM ENTRAIN GULF MSTR FAST ENUF TO RAIN HERE BEFORE IT EXITS
TO THE E? CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THE FCST IS TOO LOW ON PCPN POTENTIAL.
IT`S STILL CONCEIVABLE IT RAINS HERE BUT BOTTOM LINE IS IT WON`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR .05 QPF OR HIGHER CONT TO
BE OVER FAR ERN KS/NEB.
SUN-TUE: A RETURN TO PLEASANT WX IN DRY NW FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL MON. WE COULD SEE ONE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL /+10F/
TEMPS.
11/6: SOME LIGHT PCPN?
AROUND 11/10: LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES A POSSIBILITY. THIS PER
SEVERAL DAYS OF RUNS FROM THE GFS. THIS TIME FRAME IS APPROACHING AT
THE TAIL END OF THE EC ENSEMBLES AND THERE`S A BIG TROF FCST OVER
THE WRN USA. IF THIS WORKS OUT RIGHT...IT COULD END UP A HEALTHY
PCPN EVENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BASED AROUND 9000 FT. ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD EVEN MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE...BUT WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME. BREEZES
WILL AVERAGE UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...PREVAILING FROM THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
624 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BEGIN MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AND INTO
CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR 630 PM UPDATE...SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO POP FIELDS FOR NEXT 6
HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RUC FORECAST. 18Z RUN OF GFS
COMING IN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BELIEF THAT AIRMASS IS TOO WARM FOR
SNOW TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR EXTREME SW PART OF AREA WHERE TEMPS
THE CLOSEST TO POSSIBLY HAVING SOME SNOW.
UNLESS BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN OVER LAKE AND GEAUGA
PERSISTS...THE RAIN OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
FLOODING ISSUES AT BAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY BE ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY AREAS OF LOCALLY PERSISTENT HEAVIER
RAIN. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A HANDFUL OF RIVERS.
FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK IN LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING INTO THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES START COOLING FRIDAY AT 850 MB BUT THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SEEMS TOO WARM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET SNOW. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT MENTION SNOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT IS CHANCE POPS.
AT THIS TIME THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMPT
A NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. EVEN THROUGH THE GROUND IS SATURATED THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY JUST PROMPT A NEED FOR FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
NOT WARNINGS. HOWEVER...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR A FEW
RIVERS AND SOME ARE FALLING.
USED A MIX OF GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ECMWF MOVES A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND
THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HPC
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO
DISAGREE AS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW THIS FAR OUT.
FOR FORECAST WENT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW AND THEN AGAIN
ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NOW LOCATED NE OF PIT AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH THIS EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE LOW INTO WRN NY STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MOST AREAS...LINGERING
SATURDAY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
ANGRY LAKE BEGINNING TO SETTLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A GALE WARNING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE WESTERN HALF...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EAST. REMNANT LOW ACROSS WESTERN PA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING OUT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY ONWARD. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT THE
EAST HALF CAN GO WITHOUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT WINDS COME
AROUND TO THE WNW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PICK UP. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY GENERALLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD TO 30 KNOTS IN THERE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND RELAXING THE WINDS AND VEERING THEM TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>146-
162>166.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING REMNANTS OF
SANDY NOW OVER WASHINGTON DC AREA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WAS RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WAS PRODUCING
BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS WITH A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE
SHOWED A VEIL OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO WI/IL. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER REGION...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA.
30.12Z NCEP MODELS/29.21Z SREF/29.12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS GETTING SHUNTED NORTH
INTO NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF SANDY
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SETTING UP AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AS
DEEPER MIXING TAKES PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE
45-50 RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
30.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
BOTH MODELS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE
REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OVER PA AND AN ELONGATED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BRING A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO KRST. CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL EDGE EAST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST GLANCE KLSE THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN
ON NORTH WINDS IN THE 12 TO 13 KT RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE 5 TO 8 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 13 KT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP