Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/29/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
930 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.UPDATE..
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO TO THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS
WHILE HURRICANE SANDY MOVES NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SANDY AND THIS TROUGH
INTERACTING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO TURN THE HURRICANE BACK TOWARD
THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TOWARD AN INTENSE NOR EASTER.
LOOKS TO BE A STORM TO REMEMBER FOR THOSE FOLKS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...OUR WEATHER IS MUCH MORE TRANQUIL...ALTHOUGH STILL
BREEZY. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...FROM A DRY POINT
OF VIEW. IF ANYONE IS INTERESTED IN WHAT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOOKS LIKE ON A SKEW-T CHART...HERE IS A GREAT EXAMPLE. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE 900MB ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 40-50C...GIVING US A PW VALUES OF ONLY 0.48". THE
LOW STRATOCU CLOUDS MOVING OFF THE GULF ARE ALL TRAPPED IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE UNDER THIS LEVEL.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET AND COOL UNDERNEATH THIS
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...IT WONT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES MOVE ASHORE. SPRINKLES SHOULD BE ALL THIS SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER CAN SUPPORT...AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
POSSIBILITY...AND WILL NOT ARGUE WITH THAT SOLUTION.
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS...WITH STILL SOME LOW LEVEL STRATOCU ARRIVING OFF THE
GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING INTO THE UPPER 60S/70 NORTH AND LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE MORNING. EXPECT VFR THROUGH
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL
KEEP NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUED ROUGH
SEAS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO START RELAXING LATER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 54 72 49 68 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 59 73 52 73 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 51 71 46 69 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 58 72 52 70 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 45 71 41 69 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 60 71 55 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR CITRUS-
DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-
MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1010 AM EDT Sat Oct 27 2012
.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]...
Updated at: 1005am
Overall, the forecast for the next 12-18 hours appears to be in
good shape and very few changes were made this morning. The main
change was to increase the sky cover a bit. In the far western
part of our area, some low stratus had developed behind an
advancing cold front, and that front is becoming increasingly ill-
defined. Meanwhile, the western periphery of the cirrus shield
from Hurricane Sandy continued to be situated over most of the
rest of the area. The HRRR has the best handle on the current
extent of the high-level clouds and it hardly erodes the western
edge through the day. Despite that, most of the cirrus should be
at least semi-transparent and most of the area should see some
filtered sunshine. High temperatures should be very near normal
values. The breezy northwest flow is not expected to reach levels
that would prompt any advisories today. Most gusts should peak in
the 20-25mph range.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Both day and nighttime temps will continue to fall as the CAA
becomes even stronger, with Highs on Sunday ranging from the upper
60s NW to the lower to middle 70s elsewhere, and down to the lower
to middle 60s CWA wide on Monday. Low temps on Monday morning are
expected to drop into upper 30s across the NW 1/3 of the area,
with lower to middle 40s elsewhere. The unusually low Max temps on
Monday will set the stage for the coldest night of the season thus
far on Monday night, with some inland areas bottoming out into the
middle to upper 30s. Also, daytime winds will continue to remain
elevated out of the NW for both Sunday and Monday, with sustained
speeds generally 10-15 mph on Sun., and back to 15-20 mph on Mon.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
A chilly airmass is expected to dominate the first half of the
week as high pressure builds into the local area with
northwesterly flow behind the massive east coast low. The 27/00z
GFS trended slightly cooler and is now forecasting lows in the mid
to upper 30s on Monday night across the area. Much will depend on
the evolution of the large storm along the east coast. The 27/12z
ECMWF is not quite as bullish as the newer GFS with the cold push
into the local area. The official forecast went for a compromise
for now with upper 30s to lower 40s across the area for Monday
night. A gradual warming trend is expected for the middle and
latter part of the week as the airmass modifies. The GFS also
brings a weak shortwave through the area on Thursday with
scattered showers across the coastal waters and the southeast big
bend, but the old Euro run had nothing and the official forecast
will wait for a little more consistency before introducing any
mention of showers into the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION [through 12z Sunday]...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, although
some low clouds behind an approaching cold front may provide a few
hours of MVFR conditions around KDHN and KECP during the mid-
morning hours. Gusty northwest winds are expected in the wake of
the front with gusts around 20 knots, diminishing after sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
With the tight pressure gradient between Sandy (which should be
well to our NE near the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday afternoon),
and the cold Surface High pressure ridge to our Northwest expected
to tighten further and then remain steady into the beginning of
next week, decided to extend the Small Craft Advisory until Monday
evening. This will result in a fairly long period of rough
maritime conditions, with sustained northwest winds of 20 to 25
knots, with occasional gusts above 30 knots, continuing through at
least Monday. Seas are expected to peak into the 5 to 7 foot range
nearshore and 6 to 8 feet offshore. Both winds and seas should
subside significantly by the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier conditions will begin to move into the region today as a
cold front pass through the area. Relative humidity values are
forecast to stay above critical levels this afternoon, but even
drier air is expected for Sunday with conditions approaching red
flag criteria across a portion of northwest Florida with gusty
winds and marginally low RH. The RH looks too marginal for a watch
at this time in our area on Sunday afternoon, but if the RH
forecast decreases, then a watch or warning may be needed later.
Red flag conditions will become more likely and widespread on
Monday and Tuesday with much lower RH values expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With little or no rainfall in the fcst through much of next week,
there are no hydrological concerns or significant river rises
expected across the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 81 52 73 44 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 78 52 72 45 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 75 47 69 40 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 79 51 71 41 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 78 54 73 43 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 80 55 76 44 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 79 54 72 49 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for all of the
coastal waters.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY REMAINING GENERALLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THEN EXTENDING
OFFSHORE. THE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. BIGGEST
ISSUE TONIGHT WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM AREA SITES STILL SHOWING WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
WEST...AND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE EAST. WOULD
EXPECT THIS WIND FIELD TO DOMINATE ALL NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS
TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND TWEAKED WINDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOS LOW TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S STILL OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY STILL APPEARS DRY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS STILL LOOKED
GOOD FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES
AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
A DRY AND COOL PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY AS
MODELS BRING A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND CLOUDS TO THE REGION. DECIDED
TO USE A MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S FOR TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY IS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
ABOUT 400 MILES SE OF CAE...PROVIDING OUR FA WITH BREEZY NNE WINDS AND
A BLANKET OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ASSOCIATED RAIN AREAS ARE ALONG
THE COAST. NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BANKED UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. SANDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NE...WITH
ASSOCIATED RAIN REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. LOWER MVFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...PEE DEE...AND E NC. AS SANDY
TRACKS TO THE NE...MODEL PROJECT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FA TO BACK
SLIGHTLY FROM NNE TO MORE OF A N TO NNW. THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP
LOWER MVFR CIGS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS...PER LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
419 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOCAL AREA RADARS SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF SANDY ARE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY WELL TO
THE EAST. WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES. OBS FROM AREA SITES STILL HAVE WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. MOS LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S STILL OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY STILL APPEARS DRY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVERGENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS STILL LOOKED GOOD FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES
AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
A DRY AND COOL PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY AS
MODELS BRING A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND CLOUDS TO THE REGION. DECIDED
TO USE A MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S FOR TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY IS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
ABOUT 400 MILES SE OF CAE...PROVIDING OUR FA WITH BREEZY NNE WINDS AND
A BLANKET OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ASSOCIATED RAIN AREAS ARE ALONG
THE COAST. NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BANKED UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. SANDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NE...WITH
ASSOCIATED RAIN REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. LOWER MVFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...PEE DEE...AND E NC. AS SANDY
TRACKS TO THE NE...MODEL PROJECT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FA TO BACK
SLIGHTLY FROM NNE TO MORE OF A N TO NNW. THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP
LOWER MVFR CIGS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS...PER LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE THAT MAY WRAP INTO THE AREA. MODEL TIME-
HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.
WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MAINLY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY STILL APPEARS DRY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVERGENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES
AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
A DRY AND COOL PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE...WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY N
WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SATELLITE/OBS ALSO SHOWS
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE N AND NE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL BE STAYING EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING LOWER CLOUDINESS FOR
MUCH OF OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND E NC...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS. LATEST RAP BRINGS LOWER
CLOUDS SW INTO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT UNDER A N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHETHER CIGS WILL BE MVFR OR IFR. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MVFR CIGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY VFR AFTER 13Z/14Z.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE NW/NNW BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT
REMAINING UP AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
SANDY WILL BE SE OF CHARLESTON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE THAT MAY WRAP INTO THE AREA. MODEL TIME-
HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.
WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MAINLY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY STILL APPEARS DRY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVERGENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES
AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
A DRY AND COOL PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE...WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY N
WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SATELLITE/OBS ALSO SHOWS
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE N AND NE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL BE STAYING EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING LOWER CLOUDINESS FOR
MUCH OF OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND E NC...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS. LATEST RAP BRINGS LOWER
CLOUDS SW INTO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT UNDER A N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHETHER CIGS WILL BE MVFR OR IFR. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MVFR CIGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY VFR AFTER 13Z/14Z.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE NW/NNW BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT
REMAINING UP AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
SANDY WILL BE SE OF CHARLESTON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
241 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE THAT MAY WRAP INTO THE AREA. MODEL TIME-
HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.
WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MAINLY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY STILL APPEARS DRY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVERGENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES
AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
A DRY AND COOL PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE...WITH HURRICANE SANDY WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY N WIND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SATELLITE/OBS ALSO SHOWS THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SANDY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE N AND NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY WILL BE STAYING EAST OF THE TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT INDICATING LOWER CLOUDINESS FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE
LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E NC...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. LATEST RAP BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS SW INTO OUR CWA
LATE TONIGHT UNDER A N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO WHETHER CIGS WILL BE MVFR OR IFR. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
MVFR CIGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY VFR AFTER 13Z/14Z. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT
MORE NW/NNW BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAINING UP AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS SANDY WILL BE SE OF CHARLESTON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHWARD OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGION BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS AN AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES
NORTHWARD WELL OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP
TO INCREASE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. ANY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...WITH
THE BULK OF IT REMAINING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WILL STILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
AREAS TOWARDS MORNING. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFFECTS OF SANDY TO THE EAST...WELL OFFSHORE...AND HIGHER
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST BUT A WESTERN BAND OF SHOWERS COULD BRING A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND LOCATIONS TO
THE EAST. THE WESTERN PART INCLUDING THE CSRA LOOK TO BE RAIN
FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL BE GONE TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AND
SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A MONSTER EXTRA-TROPICAL
STORM JUST IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. FORTUNATELY FOR SOUTH
CAROLINA...JUST COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE...WITH HURRICANE SANDY WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY N WIND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SATELLITE/OBS ALSO SHOWS THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SANDY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE N AND NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY WILL BE STAYING EAST OF THE TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT INDICATING LOWER CLOUDINESS FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE
LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E NC...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. LATEST RAP BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS SW INTO OUR CWA
LATE TONIGHT UNDER A N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO WHETHER CIGS WILL BE MVFR OR IFR. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
MVFR CIGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY VFR AFTER 13Z/14Z. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT
MORE NW/NNW BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAINING UP AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS SANDY WILL BE SE OF CHARLESTON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
501 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS WITH COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH EVENTUALLY OUR WEATHER TO BE
DICTATED BY LARGE SCALE PATTERN OWING TO SANDY.
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
POP/WX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL DEPICTING AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LAKE AS WELL AS WITH BOTH SURFACE OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS
PAINTING A SIMILAR PICTURE. ALTHOUGH...THIS AXIS OF CONVERGENCE
HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION...WITH DIURNAL TRENDS AIDING
FOR MORE SYNOPTIC NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. NONETHELESS...WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPILL
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HAD MAINTAINED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDED...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH
DEVELOPMENT IF ANY AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UNDER THIS
BEST AXIS OF CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
WORK ITS WAY EAST/SOUTHEAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESPOND AND SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN
FLOW WILL BRING THIS CONVERGENT AXIS WEST ORIENTING ITSELF SUCH
THAT I EXPECT CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN SPILLING ONTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE PRESENCE OF SIMILAR DELTA TS WITH ONCE
AGAIN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TONIGHT...EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. A LONGER FETCH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD AID IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIRES DATA DOES SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS DEVELOPING FROM MID
LAKE AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...CANNOT REALLY ARGUE THIS POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH...I WONDER
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS WEAK FORCING TO WORK
WITH. THIS WILL OF COURSE PLAY A BIG PART WITH OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY COVERAGE. HAVE TRIED TO ADD
SOME ADDED DETAIL TO THE POP/WX GRID TRYING TO SHOW A MORE NARROW
AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT....KEEPING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AS
WELL AS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...CLOUD COVER WILL NOT AND SHOULD SPAN MOST
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THEN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO SHIFT BACK PRIMARILY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BE LACKING GOING INTO MONDAY...WITH PRECIP REALLY NOT
BECOMING LIKELY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...AS SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
INTERACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS CURRENT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH SANDY
OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THIS WILL
MEAN FOR AREAS IN OUR LOCATION...IS A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT WILL SPAN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY NEAR THE CWA
BUT PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION WITH THIS LARGE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
MOISTURE/PRECIP REACHING THE CWA...IT DOES APPEAR AS THE BEST AXIS
OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY EAST. WHAT IS NOT IN QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE CWA AND MORE IMPORTANTLY OVER THE LAKE. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL
BRING LARGE WAVES CRASHING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE
AND ONTO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGH WAVES ON BOTH THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS EXPECTED BUT WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVES EXPECTED OVER INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS HIGH WINDS AND EVEN SOME LAKE SHORE FLOODING
COULD EVENTUALLY BE ISSUES FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE LAKE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 18 KT THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LAKE INDUCED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AND WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM KANSAS CITY TO
SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS AS OBSERVED YESTERDAY ARE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO DO EXPECT AND ALREADY HAVE SEEN TO
SOME DEGREE LAKE INFLUENCE MOVING INTO THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES.
THIS SHOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS AT ORD AND MDW TO THE NE. THE
COOLER FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS RESULTED IN BKN 030-040 CIGS JUST
EAST OF MDW INTO NW IN. THE CONVERGENT AXIS FAVORING THE CLOUDS IN
THESE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO GENERALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST ACROSS CHICAGO
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONGER FETCH OVER THE LAKE SHOULD
RESULT IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS FOR THE CHICAGO AIRPORTS SUNDAY
MORNING...AND LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THOSE
AIRFIELDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMING MORE NE...GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THE FLOW OFF
THE FRICTIONLESS LAKE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING NNE TO NE THROUGH REMAINDER
OF AFTERNOON...LIKELY BACKING NNW WITH SLIGHT LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-4000 FT CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE MAY END UP BEING LOWER...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FT.
RATZER/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SMALL THREAT OF LOCALIZED
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOCALIZED SHOWERS TUES-WED. BREEZY FROM THE NNW.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
423 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. NORTH
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...CONTINUED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH WAVES. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY MOVE ASHORE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR WEST THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXTEND. GALES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS.
GALES ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE NEARSHORE ZONES...DEVELOPING FIRST
SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND...THEN SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT FOR A
TIME ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH AND EAST
OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES...ONLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
FORCE GUSTS. MULTIPLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND SUSTAINED GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WANT TO SEE IF NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A STORM FORCE
WATCH NOW.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH AS THE LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS
AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ARRIVE NEXT SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 1 PM
MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741...10 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
426 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS WITH COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH EVENTUALLY OUR WEATHER TO BE
DICTATED BY LARGE SCALE PATTERN OWING TO SANDY.
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
POP/WX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL DEPICTING AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LAKE AS WELL AS WITH BOTH SURFACE OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS
PAINTING A SIMILAR PICTURE. ALTHOUGH...THIS AXIS OF CONVERGENCE
HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION...WITH DIURNAL TRENDS AIDING
FOR MORE SYNOPTIC NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. NONETHELESS...WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPILL
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HAD MAINTAINED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDED...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH
DEVELOPMENT IF ANY AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UNDER THIS
BEST AXIS OF CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
WORK ITS WAY EAST/SOUTHEAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESPOND AND SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN
FLOW WILL BRING THIS CONVERGENT AXIS WEST ORIENTING ITSELF SUCH
THAT I EXPECT CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN SPILLING ONTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE PRESENCE OF SIMILAR DELTA TS WITH ONCE
AGAIN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TONIGHT...EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. A LONGER FETCH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD AID IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIRES DATA DOES SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS DEVELOPING FROM MID
LAKE AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...CANNOT REALLY ARGUE THIS POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH...I WONDER
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS WEAK FORCING TO WORK
WITH. THIS WILL OF COURSE PLAY A BIG PART WITH OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY COVERAGE. HAVE TRIED TO ADD
SOME ADDED DETAIL TO THE POP/WX GRID TRYING TO SHOW A MORE NARROW
AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT....KEEPING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AS
WELL AS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...CLOUD COVER WILL NOT AND SHOULD SPAN MOST
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THEN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO SHIFT BACK PRIMARILY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BE LACKING GOING INTO MONDAY...WITH PRECIP REALLY NOT
BECOMING LIKELY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...AS SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
INTERACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS CURRENT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH SANDY
OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THIS WILL
MEAN FOR AREAS IN OUR LOCATION...IS A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT WILL SPAN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY NEAR THE CWA
BUT PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION WITH THIS LARGE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
MOISTURE/PRECIP REACHING THE CWA...IT DOES APPEAR AS THE BEST AXIS
OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY EAST. WHAT IS NOT IN QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE CWA AND MORE IMPORTANTLY OVER THE LAKE. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL
BRING LARGE WAVES CRASHING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE
AND ONTO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGH WAVES ON BOTH THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS EXPECTED BUT WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVES EXPECTED OVER INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS HIGH WINDS AND EVEN SOME LAKE SHORE FLOODING
COULD EVENTUALLY BE ISSUES FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE LAKE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 18 KT THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE NEARBY OR EVEN TEMPORARY BKN030-040 CIGS AT MDW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
* LAKE INDUCED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AND WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM KANSAS CITY TO
SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS AS OBSERVED YESTERDAY ARE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO DO EXPECT AND ALREADY HAVE SEEN TO
SOME DEGREE LAKE INFLUENCE MOVING INTO THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES.
THIS SHOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS AT ORD AND MDW TO THE NE. THE
COOLER FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS RESULTED IN BKN 030-040 CIGS JUST
EAST OF MDW INTO NW IN. THE CONVERGENT AXIS FAVORING THE CLOUDS IN
THESE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO GENERALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST ACROSS CHICAGO
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONGER FETCH OVER THE LAKE SHOULD
RESULT IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS FOR THE CHICAGO AIRPORTS SUNDAY
MORNING...AND LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THOSE
AIRFIELDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMING MORE NE...GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THE FLOW OFF
THE FRICTIONLESS LAKE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING NNE TO NE THROUGH AT LEAST
23Z ONCE THEY SHIFT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND TRENDS AND
SPEEDS AFTER 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-4000 FT CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE MAY END UP BEING LOWER...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SMALL THREAT OF LOCALIZED
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOCALIZED SHOWERS TUES-WED. BREEZY FROM THE NNW.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
423 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. NORTH
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...CONTINUED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH WAVES. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY MOVE ASHORE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR WEST THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXTEND. GALES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS.
GALES ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE NEARSHORE ZONES...DEVELOPING FIRST
SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND...THEN SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT FOR A
TIME ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH AND EAST
OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES...ONLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
FORCE GUSTS. MULTIPLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND SUSTAINED GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WANT TO SEE IF NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A STORM FORCE
WATCH NOW.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH AS THE LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS
AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ARRIVE NEXT SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 1 PM
MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741...10 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
336 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS WITH COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH EVENTUALLY OUR WEATHER TO BE
DICTATED BY LARGE SCALE PATTERN OWING TO SANDY.
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
POP/WX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL DEPICTING AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LAKE AS WELL AS WITH BOTH SURFACE OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS
PAINTING A SIMILAR PICTURE. ALTHOUGH...THIS AXIS OF CONVERGENCE
HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION...WITH DIURNAL TRENDS AIDING
FOR MORE SYNOPTIC NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. NONETHELESS...WITH SUFFICIENT DELTA TS AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPILL
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HAD MAINTAINED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDED...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH
DEVELOPMENT IF ANY AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UNDER THIS
BEST AXIS OF CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
WORK ITS WAY EAST/SOUTHEAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESPOND AND SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN
FLOW WILL BRING THIS CONVERGENT AXIS WEST ORIENTING ITSELF SUCH
THAT I EXPECT CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN SPILLING ONTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE PRESENCE OF SIMILAR DELTA TS WITH ONCE
AGAIN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TONIGHT...EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. A LONGER FETCH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD AID IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIRES DATA DOES SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS DEVELOPING FROM MID
LAKE AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...CANNOT REALLY ARGUE THIS POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH...I WONDER
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS WEAK FORCING TO WORK
WITH. THIS WILL OF COURSE PLAY A BIG PART WITH OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY COVERAGE. HAVE TRIED TO ADD
SOME ADDED DETAIL TO THE POP/WX GRID TRYING TO SHOW A MORE NARROW
AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT....KEEPING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AS
WELL AS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...CLOUD COVER WILL NOT AND SHOULD SPAN MOST
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THEN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO SHIFT BACK PRIMARILY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BE LACKING GOING INTO MONDAY...WITH PRECIP REALLY NOT
BECOMING LIKELY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...AS SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
INTERACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS CURRENT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH SANDY
OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THIS WILL
MEAN FOR AREAS IN OUR LOCATION...IS A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT WILL SPAN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY NEAR THE CWA
BUT PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION WITH THIS LARGE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
MOISTURE/PRECIP REACHING THE CWA...IT DOES APPEAR AS THE BEST AXIS
OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY EAST. WHAT IS NOT IN QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE CWA AND MORE IMPORTANTLY OVER THE LAKE. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL
BRING LARGE WAVES CRASHING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE
AND ONTO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGH WAVES ON BOTH THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS EXPECTED BUT WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVES EXPECTED OVER INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS HIGH WINDS AND EVEN SOME LAKE SHORE FLOODING
COULD EVENTUALLY BE ISSUES FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE LAKE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 18 KT THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE NEARBY OR EVEN TEMPORARY BKN030-040 CIGS AT MDW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
* LAKE INDUCED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AND WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM KANSAS CITY TO
SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS AS OBSERVED YESTERDAY ARE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO DO EXPECT AND ALREADY HAVE SEEN TO
SOME DEGREE LAKE INFLUENCE MOVING INTO THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES.
THIS SHOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS AT ORD AND MDW TO THE NE. THE
COOLER FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS RESULTED IN BKN 030-040 CIGS JUST
EAST OF MDW INTO NW IN. THE CONVERGENT AXIS FAVORING THE CLOUDS IN
THESE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO GENERALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST ACROSS CHICAGO
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONGER FETCH OVER THE LAKE SHOULD
RESULT IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS FOR THE CHICAGO AIRPORTS SUNDAY
MORNING...AND LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THOSE
AIRFIELDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMING MORE NE...GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THE FLOW OFF
THE FRICTIONLESS LAKE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING NNE TO NE THROUGH AT LEAST
23Z ONCE THEY SHIFT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND TRENDS AND
SPEEDS AFTER 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2500-4000 FT CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE MAY END UP BEING LOWER...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SMALL THREAT OF LOCALIZED
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOCALIZED SHOWERS TUES-WED. BREEZY FROM THE NNW.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. HURRICANE SANDY IS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL WORK WITH THE HIGH TO THE WEST TO DRIVE
THE WEATHER ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WEAKEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS THE
HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
10 TO 20 KT WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER
TIGHTEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WHAT REMAINS OF SANDY MOVES
NORTHWARD THEN TURNS WESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BY THAT
TIME THE HIGH WILL HAVE BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 30 KT MONDAY WITH A
FURTHER INCREASE TO GALES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW STRONG THE
WINDS BECOME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FURTHER WESTWARD PUSH INLAND TO
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY WHERE A
FURTHER EAST TRACK WOULD KEEP WINDS IN THE GALE RANGE. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN RAISING WIND SPEEDS FROM
EARLIER FORECASTS WITH MID RANGE GALES TO 40 KT...WITH PERIODS OF 45
KT POSSIBLE...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THAT SAID...STILL
HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS BUT SEVERAL THINGS
NEED TO COME TOGETHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE
TRACK OF SANDY FIRST. REGARDLESS...THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY HANG
AROUND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEAKEN
BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH BUT LOOK TO
FALL BELOW GALE FORCE LATER WEDNESDAY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 1 PM
MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741...10 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW THROUGH KBMG
AND ALMOST TO KHUF. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE 40S AT 00Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOCUS OF THE UPDATE WILL BE ON CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVENING. NAM...OP GFS
AND THE RAP ALL WANT TO MIX OUT LOWER CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THAT DOES STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...AS DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HURRICANE SANDY HAVE BEGUN
TO INTERACT. SO EVEN IF STRATOCU DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER WEST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS FIRST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SECOND FROM A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS...GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SANDY THAN THE 12Z
CANADIAN AS IS PREFERRED. THE FORMER BLEND WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE REGIONAL OUTPUT. THE BLEND HAS THE REMNANTS NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH QPF ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD JUST BE RAIN
SHOWERS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER
COORDINATION...ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REGIONAL OUTPUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK AND LEFT ALONE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST AFTER STARTING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE SANDY TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KT...AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS PUSHING 20KT WITH GUSTS TO
30KT...AND PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF MOISTURE SHIELD TO OUR EAST. MAY SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT
BRIEFLY LATE...BUT EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ALLOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. BASES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
850 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW THROUGH KBMG
AND ALMOST TO KHUF. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE 40S AT 00Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOCUS OF THE UPDATE WILL BE ON CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVENING. NAM...OP GFS
AND THE RAP ALL WANT TO MIX OUT LOWER CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THAT DOES STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...AS DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HURRICANE SANDY HAVE BEGUN
TO INTERACT. SO EVEN IF STRATOCU DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER WEST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS FIRST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SECOND FROM A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS...GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SANDY THAN THE 12Z
CANADIAN AS IS PREFERRED. THE FORMER BLEND WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE REGIONAL OUTPUT. THE BLEND HAS THE REMNANTS NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH QPF ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD JUST BE RAIN
SHOWERS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER
COORDINATION...ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REGIONAL OUTPUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK AND LEFT ALONE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST AFTER STARTING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE SANDY TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KT...AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS PUSHING 20KT WITH GUSTS TO
30KT...AND PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF MOISTURE SHIELD TO OUR EAST. MAY SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT
BRIEFLY LATE...BUT EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ALLOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. BASES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...UPDATED FOR 27/06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SW NE AND NW KS WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY HAS BECOME MORE
CELLULAR ON THE SOUTH/EASTERN EDGES AND EXPECT THAT AREA AND POINTS
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IN THE CWA TO CLEAR OFF OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
IS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUD COVER. RAP MODEL SEEMED TO
BE LINING UP THE BEST WITH ITS 925-850MB RH FIELD...THEREFORE
TRENDED SKY COVER TOWARD THAT MODEL. THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUGGESTS THE
CLEARING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT STILL A LITTLE COOLER FROM READINGS LAST NIGHT DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH ALL EYES ON THE EAST COAST AND EVOLUTION OF SANDY...IA WEATHER
WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES. ONLY NEAR TERM
WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OFF BC COAST
WHICH DROPS INTO MO VALLEY SAT NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS FORCING AND MOISTURE SO HAVE REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS WITH NOTHING BEYOND FLURRY WORDING FAR NW 09-15Z SAT.
A SIMILAR SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND
WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE MS/OH VALLEY LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH SANDY. THIS IMPRESSIVE STORM...WHERE EVER ITS
LOCATION AND LANDFALL...WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND LOCK IN OUR PATTERN
KEEPING IA IN PERSISTENT RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MEASURABLE POPS AT THIS POINT...TOKEN PRECIP
MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AROUND MON OR TUE...AND AGAIN
AROUND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...27/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW END VFR STRATUS
DECK OVER KDSM/KMCW/KFOD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SHRINK IN
COVERAGE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
KEEPING ALL CIGS VFR. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS TAF SITES SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BRING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO ALL SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ALL
CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN VFR.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DEITSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI
OCT 26 2012
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
SHORTWAVE HAD MOVED INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WAS SOME LINGERING STRATUS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEING FORCED BY SOME WEAK PVA
AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE. RUC13 MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DECREASING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF STRATUS ALREADY STARTING TO
DIMINISH. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING FAIRLY SOON AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL CONVERT THE HARD FREEZE WATCH TO
A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JOHNSON TO JETMORE AND LARNED. THE AREA FROM SYRACUSE THROUGH
DIGHTON SAW A GOOD FREEZE LAST NIGHT SO THEY ARE DONE FOR THE YEAR
AS ARE AREAS UP TOWARD I-70. ANOTHER WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
THIS COULD SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS.
IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE PRESSURE FALLS WILL ENSUE ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
RISING SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. BASED ON MODEL 850
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SUCH A DRY AIRMASS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN
THE GENERAL MASS FIELDS FOR SUNDAY. SIMILARITIES ARE MOST
PRONOUNCED IN THE MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS, ASSOCIATED
WITH REMNANTS OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER JET
DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS COULD LEAD
TO CONSIDERABLE ALTOSTRATUS OR AT LEAST HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THERMAL FIELDS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLE HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE GFS
WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROXIMATED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES. GFS IS
GENERALLY MUCH WARMER WHICH REFLECTS IN MODEL`S AFTERNOON HIGHS.
GIVEN HOW MUCH OF A WARM BIAS SEVERAL FORECAST DAYS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY, WE`LL FOLLOW THE COOLER ECMWF IDEA, BUT USE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE COOLER IN THE WEST.
A DRY PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN INCLUDES A WEDGE OF RELATIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THE EXPECTED HURRICANE
OR TROPICAL STORM SPREADING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
RIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. HIGHS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE 60S, AND REACH THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINT INCREASING BACK INTO THE 30S WILL BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. BY FRIDAY, THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES STRONGLY DIVERGENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHARP
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, WHICH IS MODELED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF. IN EITHER INSTANCE, THE WEATHER TYPE FOR THE REGION
APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY WET - SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AND COULD MISS
WESTERN KANSAS ALTOGETHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY. SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP. LEE SIDE CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 59 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 28 59 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 29 59 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 29 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 26 57 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
P28 28 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ064>066-
074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST - TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AT 19Z RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING FROM KBBW SOUTHWESTWARD TO KGLD. ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO ALLOW COOLER AIR TO TRICKLE INTO EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD THE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME CALM AND SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO EFFECTS
WILL BRING VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOW LYING SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP ON THE BACK/WEST SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE...WHICH WILL COMMENCE A SLOW WARM UP TREND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S HIGHS...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE AMOUNT OF WARMING FOR SATURDAY WILL BE MARGINAL...SO
WILL EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
JL
LONG TERM - SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE TRANQUIL AND ESSENTIALLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH TIME. MAY SEE
A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN NOW AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS
GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK ASCENT. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM
UP WITH THE INCREASED RIDGING...PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY NEXT
WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WOULD
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR LATER...BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM MAY BE NOTICED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNRISE WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT/CALM
AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY AFT
15Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN AROUND 15KFT.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
646 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...COMBINED WITH NORTHBOUND
HURRICANE SANDY...WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF CHILLY RAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING DAYS. FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY
MAKING FLOODING A POSSIBILITY...PLUS IT CAN BE WINDY. THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME SNOWFALL...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION ON THE RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS FOR LATEST UPDATE. THIN
LINE OF SHOWERS HAS NOT MADE AS MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...ADDITIONALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE IS DECAYING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER RECENT HRRR AND WRF-NAM MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN TO MEANDER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THE RAIN
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 40S PER BLEND OF
RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...SREF ECMWF CMC AND GFS...EXPECT
HURRICANE SANDY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA
MONDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL STALLED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
THE JET STREAM ALOFT...AND CAN CAUSE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT.
HENCE FORESEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HENCE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH WIND
WATCH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE LAYER COOLING MAY CAUSE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE HIGHER WV-MD MOUNTAINS FOR THERE TO BE A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG LOW RESULTING FROM THE PHASING OF HURRICANE SANDY AND
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NORTH THIS PERIOD. DUE
TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER WV-MD MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED ON
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT. ONCE THE COLD LOW CENTER
EXITS...DRYING WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW EASTBOUND COLD FRONT HAVING BARELY REACHED THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...STRATOCUMULUS
CEILINGS TO BE IN THE IFR RANGE.
VISIBILITIES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BECOME
MVFR AT TIMES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 12 KTS INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS TO REMAIN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SANDY COMBINED WITH A COLD CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING FREQUENT IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH WET SNOW AT KMGW/KZZV MAY START
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MIXING IN
WITH RAIN FOR THE PITTSBURGH TERMINALS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 20KTS WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE 2 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE FOR THE MONONGAHELA AND
ALLEGHENY RIVER BASINS. FORECAST MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEMS ACTUAL TRACK. GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER HAS GENERALLY THE SAME AREA IN EXCESS OF THREE
INCHES ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS.
SHOULD EITHER OF THESE TOTAL BE REALIZED ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...THEN
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD OCCUR BY LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH RIVER RISES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH FLOODING
FOLLOWING IF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
FOR NOW...A MENTION OF SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL FOLLOW DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD THE SITUATION MATERIALIZE FURTHER.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MDZ001.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
403 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...COMBINED WITH NORTHBOUND
HURRICANE SANDY...WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF CHILLY RAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING DAYS. FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY
MAKING FLOODING A POSSIBILITY...PLUS IT CAN BE WINDY. THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME SNOWFALL...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION ON THE RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER RECENT HRRR AND WRF-NAM MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN TO MEANDER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THE RAIN
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 40S PER BLEND OF
RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...SREF ECMWF CMC AND GFS...EXPECT
HURRICANE SANDY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA
MONDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL STALLED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
THE JET STREAM ALOFT...AND CAN CAUSE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT.
HENCE FORESEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HENCE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH WIND
WATCH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE LAYER COOLING MAY CAUSE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE HIGHER WV-MD MOUNTAINS FOR THERE TO BE A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG LOW RESULTING FROM THE PHASING OF HURRICANE SANDY AND
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT NORTH THIS PERIOD. DUE
TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER WV-MD MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED ON
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT. ONCE THE COLD LOW CENTER
EXITS...DRYING WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW EASTBOUND COLD FRONT HAVING BARELY REACHED THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...STRATOCUMULUS
CEILINGS TO BE IN THE IFR RANGE.
VISIBILITIES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BECOME
MVFR AT TIMES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 12 KTS INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS TO REMAIN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SANDY COMBINED WITH A COLD CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING FREQUENT IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH WET SNOW AT KMGW/KZZV MAY START
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MIXING IN
WITH RAIN FOR THE PITTSBURGH TERMINALS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 20KTS WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE 2 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE FOR THE MONONGAHELA AND
ALLEGHENY RIVER BASINS. FORECAST MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEMS ACTUAL TRACK. GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER HAS GENERALLY THE SAME AREA IN EXCESS OF THREE
INCHES ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS.
SHOULD EITHER OF THESE TOTAL BE REALIZED ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...THEN
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD OCCUR BY LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH RIVER RISES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH FLOODING
FOLLOWING IF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
FOR NOW...A MENTION OF SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL FOLLOW DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD THE SITUATION MATERIALIZE FURTHER.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MDZ001.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.AVIATION...FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AOA 12000 FT AGL...WILL
IMPACT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY...DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012/
AVIATION...FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
A LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FCST CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THANKS TO PESKY STRATUS...WHICH
REMIANS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS CONTINUE TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELD AND UTILIZED THE RAP SOLN FOR CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS YIELDS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AON
2500 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH 09Z. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SCATTERED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AND SATELITE PICS ARE
INDICATING SOME LIMITED CLEARING ACROSS NWRN NEBRASKA. CIGS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS AT KLBF...HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST...LEADING TO BROKEN CIGS AOA 10000 FT AGL
SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS AND REMAIN THERE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MCCOOK NEBR. WEAK WINDS
CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO LACK OF MIXING AND SUN...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN CHILLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S. SOME CLEARING IN
THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
LOW CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WHILE
LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE SUCH COOL TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MID 30S...CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.
AS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY...KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY
THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS AGAIN TO RANGE BELOW NORMAL FROM NEAR 50 IN
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S NORTH CENTRAL.
UPPER RIDGING OCCURS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY...WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP DUE TO A RETURN FLOW OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST.
MILDER YET FOR MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE TO ADVANCE FURTHER EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MORE PRONOUNCED LEESIDE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
FROM UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 50S NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY...SOMEWHERE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS
TO RESULT IN A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE
LIKELY...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DAY.
THERE WILL BE A WESTERN TROUGH WHICH MAY EITHER BECOME CLOSED OFF
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER GFS SOLUTION...OR AS AN OPEN WAVE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS PER THE ECMWF. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND HIGHS NEAR 60. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
AGREEMENT COULD EVENTUALLY BRING ENHANCED CHANCES HOWEVER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL COME ONSHORE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE ON
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS INTO OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...STEADY RAIN FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SPREAD
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD STEUBEN CO NY...BUT HAS BROKEN UP
SOMEWHAT. EARLY RAINFALL OBS FROM LUZERNE CO SHOW .2 TO .4" FELL
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY LINE. WHILE STILL EARLY...IT APPEARS DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH AT THE FRINGE OF OUR RADAR...LIKELY DUE TO
BEAM EFFECTS IN THE MELTING LAYER. JUST FYI. FORECAST TIMING AND
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK. CONTINUE TO HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES WITH KITH AND KPEO UNDER A MILE ATTM. PREVIOUS
AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...OUTER EFFECTS FROM SANDY ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS
LUZERNE CO PA WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN. LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE DOING AN OK JOB CAPTURING THIS RAIN...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE
BEST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS IT MAINLY
CLOSE BUT JUST OUT OF OUR CWA. THINKING THAT THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION LOOKS GOOD (SE TO NW BAND OF RAIN) BUT WILL BUMP IT
ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MEANS RAIN LIKELY
FROM LUZERENE...LACKAWANNA...WYOMING COUNTIES IN NEPA...THEN
MOVING TO THE NW INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
OLD BNDRY CONTS TO BE STALLED OVER WRN NY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND HAS KEPT THE FCST AREA FROM BEING
INVOLVED IN THE PRE RAIN. XPCT THIS BNDRY TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF LGT RAIN HAS PUSHED THRU THE CNTRL
AND SRN ZONES THRU THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NE ZONES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD FAST OR EVEN PUSH SWWRD OVRNGT
LIMITING THE RAINFALL TO THE XTRM SE ZONES THRY THE NEAR TERM. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LTL DOUBT NOW IN THE TRACK OF SANDY WITH A NJ CST LANDFALL AND A
STALL IN SRN/CNTRL PA. THIS KEEPS THE FCST AREA IN THE RGT FNT
QUAD OF THE STORM...CREATING MORE CONCRN FOR WINDS BUT LESS FOR
RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE VERY STRONG WITH NAM MODEL SNDG FCSTS OF 70 KTS IN THE
UNSTABLE LYR NEAR THE GND DURING THE PK PD AFT 00Z TUE. THIS SHD
TRANSLATE TO 30 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND A SOME GUSTS NEAR OR OVER
60 MPH. WITH THE ELY DIRECTION...TREES THAT HAVE GROWN TO
WITHSTAND WEST WIND MAY BE COMPROMISED BY THIS STRONG EAST FLOW.
LOW BEGINS TO FILL RAPIDLY WITH THE GRADIENT LOOSENING
CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z WED.
PCPN LOOKS TO PEAK OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN CATS AND
POCONOS...WITH SOME SHADOWING EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM...ESP OVER CNTRL
NY. ALSO...THERE/S SCNDRY PCPN PEAK OVER THE WRN ZONES. IN
GNRL...NOT ENUF FCSTD QPF TO CAUSE ANYTHING OTR THAN SOME MINOR
FLOODING..AT WORST. HWVR...WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM...NEVER DEEL
COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE WITH ANY RAINFALL FCST. ALSO...IT/S DFCLT
TO FCST THE AMT OF EXTRA PCPN WILL BE GENERATED BY THE TERRAIN.
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTD.
MON WILL START WITH A CONTD INFLOW OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT NWRD AS SANDY APRCHS. THEN... STEADY
RAIN CONTS THRU TUE AS SANDY STALLS OVER PA. MODELS DO CONT TO
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NRN ZONES BUT IN GNRL...CAT POPS
JUSTIFIED THRU TUE WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS OVER THE PA ZONES
AND UPSLOPE AREAS.
LINGERING LGTR PCPN CONTS THRU WEDS SANDY CONTS TO FILL AND LIFT
NWRD. NOT ENUF COLD AIR AVBL ALOFT...AND CERTAINLY NOT AT THE
SFC...FOR ANY MENTION OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. USED HPC GUIDANCE
WITH LTL CHG. HPC FCSTS LOOKED VERY GOOD IN ADVERTISING THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SANDY...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. FCST
TEMPS ARE A LTL WARMER REDUCING THE CHCS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE IN
THE PD (THU NGT/FRI MRNG).
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST ESPECIALLY THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AT
KSYR/KITH/KELM, IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH KITH/KELM BELOW
AIRPORT MINS. AS FRONT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AT KSYR/KELM BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TO LOW MVFR.
AT KITH, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ALT MIN THROUGH DAYBREAK
WILL FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE. AT KBGM/KAVP, CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
INTO THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z WHILE KRME REMAINS PRIMARILY
VFR. WIND OVERNIGHT NORTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS.
ON MONDAY, AS HURRICANE SANDY STARTS IMPACTING OUR WEATHER WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT 20-30 KNOTS AND GUSTS
30-40 KNOTS. MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN IFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.
WED/THU...MVFR IN SHRA.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA...AND OUR NY COUNTIES BELOW THE
THRUWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PATH OF SANDY THROUGH NJ/SRN PA DURG ITS STGST
PHASE...THE HEAVIEST RAIN (4+" BASIN AVG) SHOULD STAY MAINLY S OF
OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINT TOTALS NEAR 4" ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
BOTTOM LN...WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR
CERTAIN PTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE SHORT-TERM SECTION ABV.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
816 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL COME ONSHORE ALONG THE THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
ON MONDAY AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS INTO OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...OUTER EFFECTS FROM SANDY ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS
LUZERNE CO PA WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN. LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE DOING AN OK JOB CAPTURING THIS RAIN...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE
BEST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS IT MAINLY
CLOSE BUT JUST OUT OF OUR CWA. THINKING THAT THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION LOOKS GOOD (SE TO NW BAND OF RAIN) BUT WILL BUMP IT
ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MEANS RAIN LIKELY
FROM LUZERENE...LACKAWANNA...WYOMING COUNTIES IN NEPA...THEN
MOVING TO THE NW INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
OLD BNDRY CONTS TO BE STALLED OVER WRN NY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND HAS KEPT THE FCST AREA FROM BEING
INVOLVED IN THE PRE RAIN. XPCT THIS BNDRY TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF LGT RAIN HAS PUSHED THRU THE CNTRL
AND SRN ZONES THRU THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NE ZONES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD FAST OR EVEN PUSH SWWRD OVRNGT
LIMITING THE RAINFALL TO THE XTRM SE ZONES THRY THE NEAR TERM. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LTL DOUBT NOW IN THE TRACK OF SANDY WITH A NJ CST LANDFALL AND A
STALL IN SRN/CNTRL PA. THIS KEEPS THE FCST AREA IN THE RGT FNT
QUAD OF THE STORM...CREATING MORE CONCRN FOR WINDS BUT LESS FOR
RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE VERY STRONG WITH NAM MODEL SNDG FCSTS OF 70 KTS IN THE
UNSTABLE LYR NEAR THE GND DURING THE PK PD AFT 00Z TUE. THIS SHD
TRANSLATE TO 30 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND A SOME GUSTS NEAR OR OVER
60 MPH. WITH THE ELY DIRECTION...TREES THAT HAVE GROWN TO
WITHSTAND WEST WIND MAY BE COMPROMISED BY THIS STRONG EAST FLOW.
LOW BEGINS TO FILL RAPIDLY WITH THE GRADIENT LOOSENING
CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z WED.
PCPN LOOKS TO PEAK OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN CATS AND
POCONOS...WITH SOME SHADOWING EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM...ESP OVER CNTRL
NY. ALSO...THERE/S SCNDRY PCPN PEAK OVER THE WRN ZONES. IN
GNRL...NOT ENUF FCSTD QPF TO CAUSE ANYTHING OTR THAN SOME MINOR
FLOODING..AT WORST. HWVR...WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM...NEVER DEEL
COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE WITH ANY RAINFALL FCST. ALSO...IT/S DFCLT
TO FCST THE AMT OF EXTRA PCPN WILL BE GENERATED BY THE TERRAIN.
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTD.
MON WILL START WITH A CONTD INFLOW OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT NWRD AS SANDY APRCHS. THEN... STEADY
RAIN CONTS THRU TUE AS SANDY STALLS OVER PA. MODELS DO CONT TO
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NRN ZONES BUT IN GNRL...CAT POPS
JUSTIFIED THRU TUE WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS OVER THE PA ZONES
AND UPSLOPE AREAS.
LINGERING LGTR PCPN CONTS THRU WEDS SANDY CONTS TO FILL AND LIFT
NWRD. NOT ENUF COLD AIR AVBL ALOFT...AND CERTAINLY NOT AT THE
SFC...FOR ANY MENTION OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. USED HPC GUIDANCE
WITH LTL CHG. HPC FCSTS LOOKED VERY GOOD IN ADVERTISING THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SANDY...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. FCST
TEMPS ARE A LTL WARMER REDUCING THE CHCS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE IN
THE PD (THU NGT/FRI MRNG).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST ESPECIALLY THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AT
KSYR/KITH/KELM, IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH KITH/KELM BELOW
AIRPORT MINS. AS FRONT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AT KSYR/KELM BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TO LOW MVFR.
AT KITH, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ALT MIN THROUGH DAYBREAK
WILL FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE. AT KBGM/KAVP, CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
INTO THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z WHILE KRME REMAINS PRIMARILY
VFR. WIND OVERNIGHT NORTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS.
ON MONDAY, AS HURRICANE SANDY STARTS IMPACTING OUR WEATHER WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT 20-30 KNOTS AND GUSTS
30-40 KNOTS. MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN IFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.
WED/THU...MVFR IN SHRA.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA...AND OUR NY COUNTIES BELOW THE
THRUWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PATH OF SANDY THROUGH NJ/SRN PA DURG ITS STGST
PHASE...THE HEAVIEST RAIN (4+" BASIN AVG) SHOULD STAY MAINLY S OF
OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINT TOTALS NEAR 4" ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
BOTTOM LN...WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR
CERTAIN PTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE SHORT-TERM SECTION ABV.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
108 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NEW YORK...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RAIN MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING...AND STRONG WINDS
MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STEADY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN END
OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS A LINE FROM CENTRAL CATTARAUGUS COUNTY TO ROCHESTER. EXPECT
THE RAIN TO REMAIN IN THE SAME BASIC POSITION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL FORCING ESSENTIALLY STALLED.
LATE TODAY THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY.
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY. THIS KEEP ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
MEANDERING JUST A BIT TO THE EAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL
BE STATIONARY.
DESPITE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...IT IS A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH SERVES AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN. A CONSENSUS
OF THE 00Z NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS GUIDANCE GRADUALLY SHIFT THIS AXIS TO
THE EAST LATER TODAY...WHICH IS A BIT MORE MOVEMENT THAN THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THIS MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE TREND SHOULD
BE FINE.
PROVIDING SECONDARY SUPPORT TO THIS BOUNDARY IS DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. WITH LITTLE
FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES WILL ONLY PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN. RAIN WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF ROCHESTER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TOWARD WATERTOWN
AND SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BAND WILL STALL...OR
EVEN DRIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
MODEST RAINFALL RATES...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE BAND WILL PRODUCE
SOME DECENT 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BETWEEN
.50 INCHES AND 1.00 INCHES WEST OF ROCHESTER...QUICKLY TAPERING
DOWN TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND NOT TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THERE ALSO VIRTUALLY TO NO
THREAT FOR FLOODING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS IT WILL BE A
JUST A SOAKING RAINFALL DUE TO THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE REGION
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WE ARE COMING
OFF OF TWO UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS. GIVEN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM IN
WESTERN SECTIONS...WHERE IT WILL BE RAINING MOST OF THE DAY. A BLEND
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND RGEM WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE
TEMPERATURES...BOTH OF WHICH WERE ON THE COOL SIDE EAST OF THE FRONT
FOR HIGHS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EVEN TOP 50 DEGREES WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON SANDY AND ITS IMPACTS
UPON NOT ONLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT ALONG THE
ENTIRE EASTERN COASTLINE. FIRST...BEFORE WE GET TO SANDY ON MONDAY
LETS LOOK AT SUNDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE FOUND NUDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
NEW YORK...WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
TROUGH. ALOFT AN EASTERLY WIND...OR WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD...WITH PWATS RISING TO +1 TO +2SD ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN FOCUS A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 120 KNOT
250 HPA JET OVER WNY SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT. IT IS UNDER
THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION WHERE THE RAIN MIGHT BECOME MODERATE AT
TIMES. WILL PAINT THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS WNY FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF SANDY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL AT FIRST FOCUS
ACROSS WNY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN LATER MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OF SANDY...INTERACTING WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME RAIN LATE SNEAKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.
AS FOR QPF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A RANGE OF JUST A FEW TENTH OF AN
INCH TOWARDS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND UPWARDS TO AN
INCH ACROSS FAR WNY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION.
THOUGH WE WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY WIND SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SFC...A BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO RAW FEEL TO
THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WEST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WHILE ALONG I-81 EASTWARD HIGHS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 50F.
SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S ACROSS WNY...AND MID 40S
TO THE EAST WHERE WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WET HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFLAKES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
DISCUSSION ON SANDY...
FIRST A LOOK AT THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HURRICANE
SANDY IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRACK NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE THIS MORNING. ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY A SHORT WAVE IS FOUND OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CARVE A DEEPER CENTRAL US TROUGH
THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CAPTURE SANDY. TO
OUR EAST A +2SD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN ATLANTIC
CANADA AND TOWARDS GREENLAND. THIS RIDGE OVER GREENLAND SUPPORTS THE
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO...AND A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO CAN
ELUDE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS WHAT WILL
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO CAPTURE AND TURN SANDY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
THE DETERMINISTIC 27/00Z MODEL OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DRIVE SANDY
INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY...WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC 26/00Z
GFS PUSHES SANDY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LONG
ISLAND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. THE GEFS MEMBERS SPREAD FROM
NEAR THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION...WHILE SOME MEMBERS BRING SANDY MUCH
FARTHER NORTHWARD MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SAID WE ARE
FAIRLY CERTAIN SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH IMPLICATIONS NOW LEANING TOWARDS A PROLONGED RAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND URBAN FLOODING AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND THREAT.
IT IS STILL TO EARLY AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREATS IN OUR HWO
PRODUCT AS WELL AS HERE BELOW IN THE AFD.
RAIN AND FLOODING...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LINGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS WNY...AND MOISTURE SURGING WESTWARD TOWARDS THIS FRONT COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WNY. AS SANDY MOVES
INLAND WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO FOCUS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...AND HOW MUCH BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
A LOOK AT THE GEFS MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOWS THAT SOME OF
OUR CREEKS AND RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
GENESEE VALLEY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR RIVER HEIGHT RISES. A FEW
MEMBERS OF THIS ENSEMBLE DO BRING SEVERAL OF OUR CREEKS...BOTH QUICK
AND SLOW RISERS INTO MINOR FLOODING IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. WITH RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST AROUND AN INCH OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH THE WEEKEND RAIN...OUR CREEKS AND
RIVERS THAT WERE PRETTY LOW OVER THE SUMMER HAVE LARGELY RECOVERED
FROM THEIR LOW FLOW. THIS INCREASE IN RIVER FLOW THIS AUTUMN WILL
ONLY INCREASE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ANY RIVER FLOODING NEXT WEEK...AS
WELL AS SMALL CREEKS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS WILL OCCUR
OVER A SEVERAL DAY TIME PERIOD POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE GROUND TO
HANDLE SUCH HIGH RAINFALLS.
WIND...THE SECOND BIG CONCERN WITH SANDY FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WIND.
AS SANDY PUSHES INLAND AND NEARS OUR REGION AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED...LIKELY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND... IS EXPECTED. AGAIN
MODELS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE ON WIND SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF PEAK
GUSTS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PINPOINTING SPEEDS AT THIS
TIME IS UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BASED OFF BOTH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS OF THE
27/00Z ECMWF AND GFS. WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION THE AREA MOST LIKELY
IMPACTED BY THE WINDS WILL BE LAKE ONTARIO AND ITS SOUTHERN
SHORELINES. PAST TROPICAL OR DEEP SURFACE LOW EVENTS HAVE SHOWN EVEN
SUBWARNING WIND SPEEDS CAN FALL TREES AS THE NORTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION IS NOT A COMMON HIGH SPEED DIRECTION FOR OUR REGION.
SNOW...THIS IMPACT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS WARM AIR WRAPPING
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AT NIGHT AND THERE IS STILL A CHC
FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF SANDY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRANSITIONING TO POSSIBLE SNOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUICKLY
FILLING...THOUGH STILL DEEP. POSITION OF WHERE THE LOW WILL BE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE 27/00Z ECMWF LINGERING THE LOW NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS
BRINGS THE LOW FARTHEST INLAND TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. A CONSENSUS OF
THESE TWO MODELS MATCHES CLOSELY WITH THE NHC TRACK WHICH PLACES THE
LOW OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON
WEDNESDAY FOR SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND LOW LEVEL
OMEGA DISPLAYS LITTLE UPWARD MOTION. QPF WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM...ALLOWING THE REMNANT LOW
OF SANDY TO SLOWLY SPIRAL NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
BY FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BARRELING TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE
WILL NUDGE THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH A COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REACHING THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA
DROP TO -1 TO -2C WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND OR
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS THREE DAY TIME PERIOD WILL RUN IN THE 40S BY
DAY...AND 40S TO SOUTHERN TIER INLAND VALLEYS 30S BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE MID LEVEL SECTION
OF THAT BOUNDARY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE GETS FORCED WEST BY THE INCREASING OUTER INFLUENCE FROM SANDY.
CIGS WILL BE SOLID IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AS WELL IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ALSO IN BR/FG.
THE MOST DENSE FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE STRATUS WILL INTERSECT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DENSE FOG ON THE HILLS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
KART WILL REMAIN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN AND IFR. STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STALL OVER EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY. A NORTHERLY
FLOW OF NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCA
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM IS
UNCERTAIN...IT DOES APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GALE OR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NEW YORK...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RAIN MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING...AND STRONG WINDS
MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STEADY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN END
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY TO WARSAW AND ROCHESTER. EXPECT
THE RAIN TO REMAIN IN THE SAME BASIC POSITION THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL FORCING ESSENTIALLY
STALLED. LATE TODAY THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD SLOWLY.
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY. THIS KEEP ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
MEANDERING JUST A BIT TO THE EAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL
BE STATIONARY.
DESPITE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...IT IS A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH SERVES AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN. A CONSENSUS
OF THE 00Z NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS GUIDANCE GRADUALLY SHIFT THIS AXIS TO
THE EAST LATER TODAY...WHICH IS A BIT MORE MOVEMENT THAN THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THIS MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE TREND SHOULD
BE FINE.
PROVIDING SECONDARY SUPPORT TO THIS BOUNDARY IS DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. WITH LITTLE
FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES WILL ONLY PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN. RAIN WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF ROCHESTER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TOWARD WATERTOWN
AND SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BAND WILL STALL...OR
EVEN DRIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
MODEST RAINFALL RATES...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE BAND WILL PRODUCE
SOME DECENT 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BETWEEN
.50 INCHES AND 1.00 INCHES WEST OF ROCHESTER...QUICKLY TAPERING
DOWN TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND NOT TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THERE ALSO VIRTUALLY TO NO
THREAT FOR FLOODING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS IT WILL BE A
JUST A SOAKING RAINFALL DUE TO THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE REGION
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WE ARE COMING
OFF OF TWO UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS. GIVEN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM IN
WESTERN SECTIONS...WHERE IT WILL BE RAINING MOST OF THE DAY. A BLEND
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND RGEM WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE
TEMPERATURES...BOTH OF WHICH WERE ON THE COOL SIDE EAST OF THE FRONT
FOR HIGHS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EVEN TOP 50 DEGREES WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON SANDY AND ITS IMPACTS
UPON NOT ONLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT ALONG THE
ENTIRE EASTERN COASTLINE. FIRST...BEFORE WE GET TO SANDY ON MONDAY
LETS LOOK AT SUNDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE FOUND NUDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
NEW YORK...WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
TROUGH. ALOFT AN EASTERLY WIND...OR WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD...WITH PWATS RISING TO +1 TO +2SD ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN FOCUS A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 120 KNOT
250 HPA JET OVER WNY SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT. IT IS UNDER
THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION WHERE THE RAIN MIGHT BECOME MODERATE AT
TIMES. WILL PAINT THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS WNY FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF SANDY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL AT FIRST FOCUS
ACROSS WNY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN LATER MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OF SANDY...INTERACTING WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME RAIN LATE SNEAKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.
AS FOR QPF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A RANGE OF JUST A FEW TENTH OF AN
INCH TOWARDS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND UPWARDS TO AN
INCH ACROSS FAR WNY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION.
THOUGH WE WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY WIND SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SFC...A BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO RAW FEEL TO
THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WEST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WHILE ALONG I-81 EASTWARD HIGHS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 50F.
SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S ACROSS WNY...AND MID 40S
TO THE EAST WHERE WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WET HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFLAKES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
DISCUSSION ON SANDY...
FIRST A LOOK AT THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HURRICANE
SANDY IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRACK NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE THIS MORNING. ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY A SHORT WAVE IS FOUND OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CARVE A DEEPER CENTRAL US TROUGH
THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CAPTURE SANDY. TO
OUR EAST A +2SD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN ATLANTIC
CANADA AND TOWARDS GREENLAND. THIS RIDGE OVER GREENLAND SUPPORTS THE
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO...AND A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO CAN
ELUDE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS WHAT WILL
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO CAPTURE AND TURN SANDY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
THE DETERMINISTIC 27/00Z MODEL OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DRIVE SANDY
INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY...WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC 26/00Z
GFS PUSHES SANDY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LONG
ISLAND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. THE GEFS MEMBERS SPREAD FROM
NEAR THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION...WHILE SOME MEMBERS BRING SANDY MUCH
FARTHER NORTHWARD MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SAID WE ARE
FAIRLY CERTAIN SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH IMPLICATIONS NOW LEANING TOWARDS A PROLONGED RAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND URBAN FLOODING AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND THREAT.
IT IS STILL TO EARLY AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREATS IN OUR HWO
PRODUCT AS WELL AS HERE BELOW IN THE AFD.
RAIN AND FLOODING...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LINGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS WNY...AND MOISTURE SURGING WESTWARD TOWARDS THIS FRONT COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WNY. AS SANDY MOVES
INLAND WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO FOCUS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...AND HOW MUCH BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
A LOOK AT THE GEFS MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOWS THAT SOME OF
OUR CREEKS AND RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
GENESEE VALLEY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR RIVER HEIGHT RISES. A FEW
MEMBERS OF THIS ENSEMBLE DO BRING SEVERAL OF OUR CREEKS...BOTH QUICK
AND SLOW RISERS INTO MINOR FLOODING IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. WITH RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST AROUND AN INCH OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH THE WEEKEND RAIN...OUR CREEKS AND
RIVERS THAT WERE PRETTY LOW OVER THE SUMMER HAVE LARGELY RECOVERED
FROM THEIR LOW FLOW. THIS INCREASE IN RIVER FLOW THIS AUTUMN WILL
ONLY INCREASE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ANY RIVER FLOODING NEXT WEEK...AS
WELL AS SMALL CREEKS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS WILL OCCUR
OVER A SEVERAL DAY TIME PERIOD POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE GROUND TO
HANDLE SUCH HIGH RAINFALLS.
WIND...THE SECOND BIG CONCERN WITH SANDY FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WIND.
AS SANDY PUSHES INLAND AND NEARS OUR REGION AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED...LIKELY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND... IS EXPECTED. AGAIN
MODELS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE ON WIND SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF PEAK
GUSTS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PINPOINTING SPEEDS AT THIS
TIME IS UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BASED OFF BOTH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS OF THE
27/00Z ECMWF AND GFS. WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION THE AREA MOST LIKELY
IMPACTED BY THE WINDS WILL BE LAKE ONTARIO AND ITS SOUTHERN
SHORELINES. PAST TROPICAL OR DEEP SURFACE LOW EVENTS HAVE SHOWN EVEN
SUBWARNING WIND SPEEDS CAN FALL TREES AS THE NORTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION IS NOT A COMMON HIGH SPEED DIRECTION FOR OUR REGION.
SNOW...THIS IMPACT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS WARM AIR WRAPPING
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AT NIGHT AND THERE IS STILL A CHC
FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF SANDY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRANSITIONING TO POSSIBLE SNOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUICKLY
FILLING...THOUGH STILL DEEP. POSITION OF WHERE THE LOW WILL BE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE 27/00Z ECMWF LINGERING THE LOW NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS
BRINGS THE LOW FARTHEST INLAND TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. A CONSENSUS OF
THESE TWO MODELS MATCHES CLOSELY WITH THE NHC TRACK WHICH PLACES THE
LOW OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON
WEDNESDAY FOR SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND LOW LEVEL
OMEGA DISPLAYS LITTLE UPWARD MOTION. QPF WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM...ALLOWING THE REMNANT LOW
OF SANDY TO SLOWLY SPIRAL NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
BY FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BARRELING TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE
WILL NUDGE THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH A COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REACHING THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA
DROP TO -1 TO -2C WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND OR
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS THREE DAY TIME PERIOD WILL RUN IN THE 40S BY
DAY...AND 40S TO SOUTHERN TIER INLAND VALLEYS 30S BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. MEANWHILE...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN. BOTH OF THESE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE...EVER SO GRADUALLY
SLIDING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NNE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH TENDS TO BE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS THIS TIME
OF YEAR. 12Z CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY IFR...WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STALL OVER EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY. A NORTHERLY
FLOW OF NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCA
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM IS
UNCERTAIN...IT DOES APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GALE OR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
726 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NEW YORK...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY. THIS KEEP ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
MEANDERING JUST A BIT TO THE EAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL
BE STATIONARY.
DESPITE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...IT IS A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH SERVES AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN. THIS FOCUS
IS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT DAYBREAK. A CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS GUIDANCE GRADUALLY SHIFT THIS AXIS TO
THE EAST TODAY...WHICH IS A BIT MORE MOVEMENT THAN THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THIS MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE FINE.
PROVIDING SECONDARY SUPPORT TO THIS BOUNDARY IS DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. WITH LITTLE
FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES WILL ONLY PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN. RAIN WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF ROCHESTER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TOWARD WATERTOWN AND
SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BAND WILL STALL...OR EVEN
DRIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
MODEST RAINFALL RATES...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE BAND WILL PRODUCE
SOME DECENT 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BETWEEN
.50 INCHES AND 1.00 INCHES WEST OF ROCHESTER...QUICKLY TAPERING
DOWN TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND NOT TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THERE ALSO VIRTUALLY TO NO
THREAT FOR FLOODING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS IT WILL BE A
JUST A SOAKING RAINFALL DUE TO THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE REGION
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WE ARE COMING
OFF OF TWO UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS. GIVEN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM IN
WESTERN SECTIONS...WHERE IT WILL BE RAINING MOST OF THE DAY. A BLEND
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND RGEM WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE
TEMPERATURES...BOTH OF WHICH WERE ON THE COOL SIDE EAST OF THE FRONT
FOR HIGHS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EVEN TOP 50 DEGREES WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON SANDY AND ITS IMPACTS
UPON NOT ONLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT ALONG THE
ENTIRE EASTERN COASTLINE. FIRST...BEFORE WE GET TO SANDY ON MONDAY
LETS LOOK AT SUNDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE FOUND NUDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
NEW YORK...WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
TROUGH. ALOFT AN EASTERLY WIND...OR WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD...WITH PWATS RISING TO +1 TO +2SD ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN FOCUS A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 120 KNOT
250 HPA JET OVER WNY SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT. IT IS UNDER
THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION WHERE THE RAIN MIGHT BECOME MODERATE AT
TIMES. WILL PAINT THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS WNY FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF SANDY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL AT FIRST FOCUS
ACROSS WNY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN LATER MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OF SANDY...INTERACTING WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME RAIN LATE SNEAKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.
AS FOR QPF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A RANGE OF JUST A FEW TENTH OF AN
INCH TOWARDS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND UPWARDS TO AN
INCH ACROSS FAR WNY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION.
THOUGH WE WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY WIND SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SFC...A BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO RAW FEEL TO
THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WEST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WHILE ALONG I-81 EASTWARD HIGHS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 50F.
SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S ACROSS WNY...AND MID 40S
TO THE EAST WHERE WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WET HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFLAKES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
DISCUSSION ON SANDY...
FIRST A LOOK AT THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HURRICANE
SANDY IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRACK NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE THIS MORNING. ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY A SHORT WAVE IS FOUND OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CARVE A DEEPER CENTRAL US TROUGH
THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CAPTURE SANDY. TO
OUR EAST A +2SD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN ATLANTIC
CANADA AND TOWARDS GREENLAND. THIS RIDGE OVER GREENLAND SUPPORTS THE
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO...AND A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO CAN
ELUDE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS WHAT WILL
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO CAPTURE AND TURN SANDY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
THE DETERMINISTIC 27/00Z MODEL OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DRIVE SANDY
INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY...WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC 26/00Z
GFS PUSHES SANDY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LONG
ISLAND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. THE GEFS MEMBERS SPREAD FROM
NEAR THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION...WHILE SOME MEMBERS BRING SANDY MUCH
FARTHER NORTHWARD MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SAID WE ARE
FAIRLY CERTAIN SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH IMPLICATIONS NOW LEANING TOWARDS A PROLONGED RAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND URBAN FLOODING AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND THREAT.
IT IS STILL TO EARLY AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREATS IN OUR HWO
PRODUCT AS WELL AS HERE BELOW IN THE AFD.
RAIN AND FLOODING...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LINGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS WNY...AND MOISTURE SURGING WESTWARD TOWARDS THIS FRONT COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WNY. AS SANDY MOVES
INLAND WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO FOCUS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...AND HOW MUCH BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
A LOOK AT THE GEFS MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOWS THAT SOME OF
OUR CREEKS AND RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
GENESEE VALLEY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR RIVER HEIGHT RISES. A FEW
MEMBERS OF THIS ENSEMBLE DO BRING SEVERAL OF OUR CREEKS...BOTH QUICK
AND SLOW RISERS INTO MINOR FLOODING IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. WITH RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST AROUND AN INCH OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH THE WEEKEND RAIN...OUR CREEKS AND
RIVERS THAT WERE PRETTY LOW OVER THE SUMMER HAVE LARGELY RECOVERED
FROM THEIR LOW FLOW. THIS INCREASE IN RIVER FLOW THIS AUTUMN WILL
ONLY INCREASE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ANY RIVER FLOODING NEXT WEEK...AS
WELL AS SMALL CREEKS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS WILL OCCUR
OVER A SEVERAL DAY TIME PERIOD POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE GROUND TO
HANDLE SUCH HIGH RAINFALLS.
WIND...THE SECOND BIG CONCERN WITH SANDY FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WIND.
AS SANDY PUSHES INLAND AND NEARS OUR REGION AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED...LIKELY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND... IS EXPECTED. AGAIN
MODELS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE ON WIND SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF PEAK
GUSTS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PINPOINTING SPEEDS AT THIS
TIME IS UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BASED OFF BOTH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS OF THE
27/00Z ECMWF AND GFS. WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION THE AREA MOST LIKELY
IMPACTED BY THE WINDS WILL BE LAKE ONTARIO AND ITS SOUTHERN
SHORELINES. PAST TROPICAL OR DEEP SURFACE LOW EVENTS HAVE SHOWN EVEN
SUBWARNING WIND SPEEDS CAN FALL TREES AS THE NORTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION IS NOT A COMMON HIGH SPEED DIRECTION FOR OUR REGION.
SNOW...THIS IMPACT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS WARM AIR WRAPPING
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AT NIGHT AND THERE IS STILL A CHC
FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF SANDY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRANSITIONING TO POSSIBLE SNOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUICKLY
FILLING...THOUGH STILL DEEP. POSITION OF WHERE THE LOW WILL BE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE 27/00Z ECMWF LINGERING THE LOW NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS
BRINGS THE LOW FARTHEST INLAND TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. A CONSENSUS OF
THESE TWO MODELS MATCHES CLOSELY WITH THE NHC TRACK WHICH PLACES THE
LOW OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON
WEDNESDAY FOR SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND LOW LEVEL
OMEGA DISPLAYS LITTLE UPWARD MOTION. QPF WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM...ALLOWING THE REMNANT LOW
OF SANDY TO SLOWLY SPIRAL NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
BY FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BARRELING TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE
WILL NUDGE THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH A COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REACHING THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA
DROP TO -1 TO -2C WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND OR
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS THREE DAY TIME PERIOD WILL RUN IN THE 40S BY
DAY...AND 40S TO SOUTHERN TIER INLAND VALLEYS 30S BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. MEANWHILE...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN. BOTH OF THESE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE...EVER SO GRADUALLY
SLIDING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NNE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH TENDS TO BE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS THIS TIME
OF YEAR. 12Z CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY IFR...WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STALL OVER EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY. A NORTHERLY
FLOW OF NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCA
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM IS
UNCERTAIN...IT DOES APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GALES OR
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
225 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTH AS SANDY MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE INFLUENCE OF
SANDY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...
THE FIRST OUTER RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY...WHICH IS
EAST OF VERO BEACH FL THIS EVENING... HAS PUSHED NORTHWEST TO JUST
OFF THE SC COAST AS DRY AIRS INFILTRATES THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE BAND IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY WITH INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES AND LITTLE
PRECIP ONSHORE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...MAKING
AS FAR WEST AS THE TRIANGLE AS OF 01Z. THE RAP INDICATES THIS VERY
LIGHT PRECIP WILL PUSH WEST TOWARD THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
VEERS SLIGHTLY TO EASTERLY BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB ...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE SANDY...ALONG WITH A WEAK
DRY AIR RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ENGLAND INTO THE PIEDMONT WILL
KEEP AREAS WEST OF I-95 DRY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN A
SMALL EASTWARD SHIFT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS REGARDING
SANDY...AND ACCORDINGLY A SIMILAR SHIFT IN THE PRECIP/NO PRECIP
LINE. THUS...THERE IS NO NEED TO ALTER THE OVERNIGHT POPS VERY
MUCH...AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRIM POPS ON THE WESTERN
EDGE IF THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT.
TO THE WEST...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR
BIRMINGHAM TO KNOXVILLE TO EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...OUTSIDE OF AN AREA OF ANAFRONTAL
PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOW OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER SATURDAY AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW AROUND SANDY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILD...MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. HAVE TWEAKED LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. EXPECT MAINLY STRATUS IN THE EAST WITH A
SLOWLY INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND TO 10-15 MPH IN THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. -BLS
SATURDAY:
THE FORECAST TRACKS FOR HURRICANE SANDY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY BASED ON
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
STILL A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THE LITTLEST CHANGE IN TRACK
TO THE EAST OR WEST WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF (HPC`S
PREFERENCE) HAS MOVED THE TRACK OF SANDY WEST AGAIN AND IS ONE OF
THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS FOR CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY. WITH SANDY TRACKING APPROXIMATELY
PARALLEL...AND A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE NC COAST AND
DECREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP AMOUNTS EAST OF
I-95. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL
ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT...MAINLY NNE...SUSTAINED OF 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SUSTAINED NEAR 12 WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KTS FROM RALEIGH WEST. AS WITH THE RAIN...WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MASKED
BY THE COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WELL OFFSHORE
TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY... PARALLELING THE SE U.S. COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE NC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER (AS MUCH AS 15-18MB) COMPARED TO THE GFS.
PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUGGEST THAT THE
ECMWF MAY BE WAY TOO STRONG/DEEP WITH SANDY. AT 18Z...THE 00Z ECMWF
VERIFIED 7MB TOO DEEP. THIS MODEL FLAW MAY COME INTO PLAY CONCERNING
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND WIND INTENSITY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS CAUSED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
AN CANADIAN HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND TC SANDY TO AFFECT OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. USED THE NHC TCM
WINDS WITH A REDUCTION OF 30 PERCENT DUE TO LAND FRICTION. GUSTS
ACHIEVED UTILIZING THE LATEST RESEARCH PERFORMED BY C*STAR
INITIATIVE CONCERNING TROPICAL WIND FORECASTING. WIND GUSTS 35-40
MPH HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A LITTLE
EARLY TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT IF THE SCENARIO
REMAINS THE SAME...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE EAST HALF
OF CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER
JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W CROSSING THE OH
VALLEY INCREASES MID LEVEL LIFT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS ON THE NW
QUADRANT OF SANDY. EXPECT THIS PRECIP BAND TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE GFS TAKING SANDY FARTHER
OFFSHORE THAN ECMWF WITH A DISTINCT DRYING TREND OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SW. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A 140+ JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. HOWEVER...SINCE THE ECMWF LIKELY TOO DEEP/STRONG WITH THE
SYSTEM...CONFLUENCE ALONG TROUGH MAY BE OVERDONE. DUE TO THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF...HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD PER TRACK AND
WEATHER DEPICTION BUT THINK THAT ITS RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERBLOWN
BY A FACTOR OF 2. THUS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL DUE TO PRESENCE
OF LINGERING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SANDY WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WHILE THE GFS HAS SHOWN SOME RUN-TO RUN VARIANCE. WILL
BASE BULK OF FORECAST ON THE ECMWF WITH ADJUSTMENT DUE TO EXPECTED
POSITION AND STRENGTH.
S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ATTAIN A NEGATIVE TILT AND DRAW
SANDY NWWD. ECMWF DOES THIS ABOUT 24 HOURS SOONER COMPARED TO THE
12Z GFS...DRAWING SANDY INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION MONDAY WHILE
THE 12Z GFS HAS ITS WWD MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALLOWING SANDY TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SWINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH SANDY PROJECTED TO LIE TO OUR NORTH...EXPECT CONTINUED WNW
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. DEEP CYCLONIC
CURVATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS AND PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
OUR FAR N-NE COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD AID TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL
NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CLUSTER AROUND 1295-1300M BOTH TUESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HISTORICALLY...THESE VALUES SUGGEST
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THICKNESSES HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO 24-48 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...STRONG
MIXING AND POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP. MAY SEE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE IN SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES MAY BE CLEAR. OTHERWISE WITH
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 50M BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS 12-18
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODIFICATION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME UPPER 40S PROBABLE TUESDAY ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
IFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC TAF LOCATIONS AT 06Z
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT KFAY. A MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL RESULT IN IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AS LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN
INTO THE 3-5 MILE RANGE PREDOMINATE. A NORTHERLY FLOW AT 6-12KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 12-20KTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT A SHIELD OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF SANDY
TO SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINTAINING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNSET AT KFAY AND KRWI. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
TAF LOCATIONS (KRDU/KGSO/KINT)...LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN
MVFR/OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT
12-16KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-28KTS ARE EXPECTED.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LOCATIONS AS THE WESTERN
FRINGE AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY THREATENS THE
AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. TREND TOWARD FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1029 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OOZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. SANDY
COMBINES WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WIND AND PROLONGED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000AM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW CHGS WITH MORNING UPDATE. SFC FRONT APPEARS TO BE HUNG
UP IN MTNS WITH H85 BOUNDARY LAGGING WELL BEHIND...INTO E OH. SFC
FRONT WILL BECOME HARDER TO FIND AS DAY WEARS ON AS OUTFLOW FROM
SANDY BEGIN TO OVERWHELM THE FLOW. EVEN H85 FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
SUFFER THE SAME FATE. AREA OF POST SFC FRONTAL SHRA CONT IN SE OH AND
WESTERN LOWLANDS THIS MORNING...AIDED BY DEFORMATION AXIS WITH UPR
FRONT. THIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO CENTRAL LOWLANDS TDY BEFORE
PERHAPS RETREATING SOME BACK TOWARD OH RVR/SE OH THIS EVE. TWEAKED
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING. MAYBE SOME
PATCHY DZ AS THIS WORKS IN...BUT STUCK WITH -SHRA AS PREDOMINATE
WX. LOW CIGS AND TMPS SLOWLY FALLING INTO UPR 40S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...WITH THE MTNS FALL THRU THEIR WARM MID/UPR 50S
CURRENTLY INTO UPR 40S/LWR 50S THIS EVE. DREARY DAY FOR ALL.
PREV DISCN...
EARLY THIS MORNING FINDS A S/W TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIVING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A L/R MIDWEST TROUGH...ALL WHILE
SANDY IS MOVING SLOWLY N...OUT E OF NORTHERN FL AND N OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE KEY TO THE NEXT 27 HOURS IS THE S/W ROTATION THROUGH THE L/R
TROUGH. THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT LIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
NEARING THE WV MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SLOWLY OOZES THROUGH
THERE TODAY...AND THEN ACTUALLY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION
OF SANDY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW EWD
PROGRESS...BARELY MAKING IT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TODAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD ACTUALLY DIMINISH IN PLACE AS THE FORCING LIFTS OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/R...ESSENTIALLY A SPEED
MAX...CARVES OUT A SHARP...NEGATIVE TILT S/W AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE L/R. ITS FORCING INCREASES RAINFALL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN A
BAND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER BENEATH A DEFORMATION AXIS
FORMING THERE.
ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE PREPONDERANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BLENDED IN HRRR EARLY ON...THEN NAM12 TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
BETTER DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF THE RESPECTIVE GRADIENTS OVER THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING TO THE E. GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STALLED AREA OF PRECIP
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO START THE SHORT TERM...AND THEN SLOWLY
MERGE THIS INTO THE OVERALL PRECIP SHIELD OF SANDY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN CWA AS
SANDY MAKES LANDFALL. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LAND
FALL...WITH GFS/NAM SHOWING A CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ ENTRY POINT...AND
THE ECMWF A BIT SOUTH IN DELMARVA.
NO MATTER THE EXACT LANDFALL...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A
HIGH PRECIP/HIGH WIND FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW AND 40+ KT
WIND GUSTS COULD CREATE QUITE THE WINTER STORM WITH DRIFTING AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.
INHERITED THE WINTER STORM WATCH...AND AFTER REWORKING THE SNOW
GRIDS DID NOT FEEL CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE WHERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND ULTIMATELY WHERE THE BEST TEMP
PROFILE FOR SNOW SETS UP...IS KIND OF TRICKY WITH THIS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. WILL LIKELY SEE WAA COMING IN ON NORTH WINDS FOR A
TIME...AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME CAA COMING WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON JUST WHERE THE COLDEST MIDLEVEL AIR
WILL BE...OR EVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE. 00Z GFS/NAM AGREE ON -4C TO
-5C 850 TEMPS BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE 00Z ECMWF IS WARMER WITH -1C
TO -2C. THE GFS/NAM WOULD HINT TOWARDS SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN WITH
SOME FLAKES FALLING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...THINK WITH THE WARM GROUND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND SANDY/S TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS IN GENERAL...AND SPECIFICALLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH REGARD TO WHERE SANDY/S LANDFALL...NHC/S TRACK
HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW BRINGS THE CENTER ASHORE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. WITH THE STORM STILL BEING FOUR DAYS AWAY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OBVIOUSLY STILL EXIST WITH HOW EXT GUIDANCE
HANDLES SANDY/S TRACK. TO SOME EXTENT EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SANDY/S POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE WITH
STRONG COLD AIR INTRUSION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL HAVE
MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS AS TO THE SNOW/ICE IMPACTS OUR FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WIND SPEEDS.
BREAKING DOWN THE SIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXT MODELS AND
STARTING WITH THE 00Z EC...SANDY/S CENTER COMES ASHORE OVER DELMARVA
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
WV AREA BY 12Z TUE. THE SFC CENTER FILLS RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL WITH A SFC PRESS OF 982MB BY SAME TIME WITH WARM ADVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY MEAN MUCH
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERALL AREA BUT WOULD ALSO MEAN A
LESSER LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUM SNOWFALL FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE
540DAM THICKNESS HEIGHT LINE REMAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BECOME THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH
THIS SCENARIO FOR LOWLANDS WITH A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF QPF DEPICTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BRING SANDY/S CENTER ASHORE NEAR
NYC TUES AFTERNOON WITH A SW RETROGRADE NEAR PHILLY BY TUE
EVE...BEFORE KICKING IT OUT TO THE N/NW WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
BRINGS A LONGER WIND EVENT CONTINUING WELL INTO TUE WITH THE SFC LOW
FARTHER AWAY. THIS SCENARIO ALSO ALLOWS COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE 540DAM LINE COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING AND WELL SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPELL SNOWFALL FOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS AS WELL. EVEN SO...WITH WARM SFC TEMPS FROM A WEEK OF VERY
WARM WEATHER IT WOULD PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO
ACCUM ON ROADWAYS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL SIDE THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC WHICH
IS MUCH CLOSER TO NHC/S CURRENT TRACK AND THUS WILL LEAN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. EITHER
WAY...THOUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IS STILL 2-3 DAYS OUT
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SNOWSHOE.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL KEEP WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS GOING THROUGH 00Z WED WITH THE LONG
DURATION POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER TWO
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR WV ZONES...WITH MUCH OF IT COMING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY. LITTLE SNOW
SHOULD ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES WITH SUCH VERY WARM TEMPS IN
PLACE THIS WEEK. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FINAL TRACK AND
ANY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH COULD MAKE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN
RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED AND WHERE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALONG
WITH WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OOZING E ACROSS AREA TODAY WILL THEN HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH MVFR VSBY AT TIMES
THERE.
SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS FIRST THING THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT SE FLOW AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE LIGHT N TO NW
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FRESHEN A BIT TODAY AND THEN
REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS MOST LOCALES TONIGHT...A BIT GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES. FRONT ALOFT WILL ENTER WESTERN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
STALL THERE. LIGHT N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MODERATE N
TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT...LIGHT
S FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT E TO NE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...PERSISTENCE AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBYS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE
LOW TERRAIN...WITH SNOW PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY...WHEN MOST OF WHAT IS SNOW IS WET SNOW. FOR THE OTHERWISE RAIN
DOMINATED LOWLANDS...WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL LOOSE ITS INFLUENCE AFTER TONIGHT HOWEVER AS HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED.
CLEARING IS NEAR TOL WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. RAIN CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN
EDGE FROM THE ISLANDS TO JUST WEST OF MNN. HRRR MOVES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE PCPN TO NEAR I-71 BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT MUCH WARMING SO WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED THE NAM12 TRENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT NAM SHOWS DRY AIR CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
WILL MAINTAIN CAT POPS EAST OF ROUGHLY AN ASHTABULA TO CANTON
LINE. SUNDAY THE HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALLOWING
DEEP MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE REGION AS SANDY
MAKES ITS WAY NORTH OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MOISTURE EVENTUALLY SPREADING WEST
OVER TOL TO FDY ON MONDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 4-5
INCHES INDICATED BY HPC THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PRECIP AMOUNTS
DROP OFF QUICKLY WEST. ALSO...WHILE NIGHTTIME TEMPS DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TEMPS ALOFT STILL TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AT LEAST ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL NEXT 3 DAYS SO NO FLOOD WATCH WOULD
BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS. AGAIN...TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES BUT MODELS TAKE THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT REACHING NWRN PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 09Z-12Z TUESDAY 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST 60 TO 80 KNOTS
DEPENDING ON MODEL AND LOCATION WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING
WIND HEADLINES ON LAND AND WATER WITH HIGHEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. OF COURSE...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION...WINDS WOULD BE MUCH LESS. ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE
PATH OF SANDY WHICH OF COURSE IS NOT SET IN STONE JUST YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY
WHAT IS LEFT OF HURRICANE SANDY AFTER IT MERGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH IS LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC REGION TO NEW YORK STATE. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM...THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT WOULD AT LEAST ALLOW
FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WRAPPING
AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL ONLY ADD TO PRECIP VALUES. WITH THAT
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK WINDS
SHIFTING W OR SW WITH CONTINUED COLDER AIR ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR NE
OH/NW PA...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE A DRYING TREND.
AS FOR TEMPS MADE ONLY SMALL CHANGES. GIVEN THE SITUATION WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...LEANED MORE TOWARD LOW DIURNAL WITH
TEMPS. WHILE HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD DID NOT DROP
LOW TEMPS AS MUCH OF SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOWING A SHARP CUTOFF TO
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT TOL BY
MID MORNING. WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER AT FDY...PERHAPS BY MIDDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON FOR
CLE AND MFD WITH IFR AT YNG THROUGH TODAY. ERI WILL SEE VARIABLE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING SHARP CLEARING PUSHING INTO THE N CNTRL OH EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT THEN BACKING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR FOR CLE AND MFD...AND CONTINUING FOR
SITES TO THE EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING AROUND 20KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NON-
VFR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE SANDY
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE RANGING 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES AT LEAST 4 FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS.
LATEST TRACK OF THE HURRICANE ONCE IT MOVES ONSHORE APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHERE INTO EITHER PA OR NEW YORK STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO REFINE THE FORECAST...FEEL
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST GALES DEVELOPING
LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL OF
THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK IT IS
UNCLEAR AS TO HOW LONG GALES MAY LINGER...BUT HAVE STRONG CONFIDENCE
THAT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE LAKE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OOZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. SANDY
COMBINES WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WIND AND PROLONGED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ALTHOUGH WHAT WAS A SHARP LEADING EDGE OF RAIN W OF OHIO
VALLEY HAS BECOME RAGGED. OVERALL STILL SLOW EWD PROGRESS THOUGH.
PREV DISCN...
EARLY THIS MORNING FINDS A S/W TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIVING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A L/R MIDWEST TROUGH...ALL WHILE
SANDY IS MOVING SLOWLY N...OUT E OF NORTHERN FL AND N OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE KEY TO THE NEXT 27 HOURS IS THE S/W ROTATION THROUGH THE L/R
TROUGH. THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT LIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
NEARING THE WV MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SLOWLY OOZES THROUGH
THERE TODAY...AND THEN ACTUALLY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION
OF SANDY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW EWD
PROGRESS...BARELY MAKING IT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TODAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD ACTUALLY DIMINISH IN PLACE AS THE FORCING LIFTS OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/R...ESSENTIALLY A SPEED
MAX...CARVES OUT A SHARP...NEGATIVE TILT S/W AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE L/R. ITS FORCING INCREASES RAINFALL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN A
BAND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER BENEATH A DEFORMATION AXIS
FORMING THERE.
ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE PREPONDERANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BLENDED IN HRRR EARLY ON...THEN NAM12 TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
BETTER DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF THE RESPECTIVE GRADIENTS OVER THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING TO THE E. GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STALLED AREA OF PRECIP
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO START THE SHORT TERM...AND THEN SLOWLY
MERGE THIS INTO THE OVERALL PRECIP SHIELD OF SANDY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN CWA AS
SANDY MAKES LANDFALL. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LAND
FALL...WITH GFS/NAM SHOWING A CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ ENTRY POINT...AND
THE ECMWF A BIT SOUTH IN DELMARVA.
NO MATTER THE EXACT LANDFALL...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A
HIGH PRECIP/HIGH WIND FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW AND 40+ KT
WIND GUSTS COULD CREATE QUITE THE WINTER STORM WITH DRIFTING AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.
INHERITED THE WINTER STORM WATCH...AND AFTER REWORKING THE SNOW
GRIDS DID NOT FEEL CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE WHERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND ULTIMATELY WHERE THE BEST TEMP
PROFILE FOR SNOW SETS UP...IS KIND OF TRICKY WITH THIS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. WILL LIKELY SEE WAA COMING IN ON NORTH WINDS FOR A
TIME...AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME CAA COMING WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON JUST WHERE THE COLDEST MIDLEVEL AIR
WILL BE...OR EVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE. 00Z GFS/NAM AGREE ON -4C TO
-5C 850 TEMPS BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE 00Z ECMWF IS WARMER WITH -1C
TO -2C. THE GFS/NAM WOULD HINT TOWARDS SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN WITH
SOME FLAKES FALLING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...THINK WITH THE WARM GROUND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND SANDY/S TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS IN GENERAL...AND SPECIFICALLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH REGARD TO WHERE SANDY/S LANDFALL...NHC/S TRACK
HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW BRINGS THE CENTER ASHORE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. WITH THE STORM STILL BEING FOUR DAYS AWAY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OBVIOUSLY STILL EXIST WITH HOW EXT GUIDANCE
HANDLES SANDY/S TRACK. TO SOME EXTENT EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SANDY/S POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE WITH
STRONG COLD AIR INTRUSION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL HAVE
MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS AS TO THE SNOW/ICE IMPACTS OUR FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WIND SPEEDS.
BREAKING DOWN THE SIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXT MODELS AND
STARTING WITH THE 00Z EC...SANDY/S CENTER COMES ASHORE OVER DELMARVA
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
WV AREA BY 12Z TUE. THE SFC CENTER FILLS RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL WITH A SFC PRESS OF 982MB BY SAME TIME WITH WARM ADVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY MEAN MUCH
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERALL AREA BUT WOULD ALSO MEAN A
LESSER LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUM SNOWFALL FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE
540DAM THICKNESS HEIGHT LINE REMAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BECOME THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH
THIS SCENARIO FOR LOWLANDS WITH A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF QPF DEPICTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BRING SANDY/S CENTER ASHORE NEAR
NYC TUES AFTERNOON WITH A SW RETROGRADE NEAR PHILLY BY TUE
EVE...BEFORE KICKING IT OUT TO THE N/NW WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
BRINGS A LONGER WIND EVENT CONTINUING WELL INTO TUE WITH THE SFC LOW
FARTHER AWAY. THIS SCENARIO ALSO ALLOWS COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE 540DAM LINE COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING AND WELL SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPELL SNOWFALL FOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS AS WELL. EVEN SO...WITH WARM SFC TEMPS FROM A WEEK OF VERY
WARM WEATHER IT WOULD PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO
ACCUM ON ROADWAYS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL SIDE THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC WHICH
IS MUCH CLOSER TO NHC/S CURRENT TRACK AND THUS WILL LEAN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. EITHER
WAY...THOUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IS STILL 2-3 DAYS OUT
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SNOWSHOE.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL KEEP WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS GOING THROUGH 00Z WED WITH THE LONG
DURATION POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER TWO
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR WV ZONES...WITH MUCH OF IT COMING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY. LITTLE SNOW
SHOULD ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES WITH SUCH VERY WARM TEMPS IN
PLACE THIS WEEK. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FINAL TRACK AND
ANY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH COULD MAKE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN
RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED AND WHERE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALONG
WITH WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OOZING E ACROSS AREA TODAY WILL THEN HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH MVFR VSBY AT TIMES
THERE.
SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS FIRST THING THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT SE FLOW AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE LIGHT N TO NW
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FRESHEN A BIT TODAY AND THEN
REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS MOST LOCALES TONIGHT...A BIT GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES. FRONT ALOFT WILL ENTER WESTERN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
STALL THERE. LIGHT N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MODERATE N
TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT...LIGHT
S FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT E TO NE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...PERSISTENCE AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBYS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 10/27/12
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE
LOW TERRAIN...WITH SNOW PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY...WHEN MOST OF WHAT IS SNOW IS WET SNOW. FOR THE OTHERWISE RAIN
DOMINATED LOWLANDS...WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
451 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OOZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. SANDY
COMBINES WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WIND AND PROLONGED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING FINDS A S/W TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIVING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A L/R MIDWEST TROUGH...ALL WHILE
SANDY IS MOVING SLOWLY N...OUT E OF NORTHERN FL AND N OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE KEY TO THE NEXT 27 HOURS IS THE S/W ROTATION THROUGH THE L/R
TROUGH. THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT LIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
NEARING THE WV MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SLOWLY OOZES THROUGH
THERE TODAY...AND THEN ACTUALLY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION
OF SANDY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW EWD
PROGRESS...BARELY MAKING IT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TODAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD ACTUALLY DIMINISH IN PLACE AS THE FORCING LIFTS OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/R...ESSENTIALLY A SPEED
MAX...CARVES OUT A SHARP...NEGATIVE TILT S/W AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE L/R. ITS FORCING INCREASES RAINFALL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN A
BAND EITHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER BENEATH A DEFORMATION AXIS
FORMING THERE.
ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE PREPONDERANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BLENDED IN HRRR EARLY ON...THEN NAM12 TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
BETTER DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF THE RESPECTIVE GRADIENTS OVER THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING TO THE E. GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STALLED AREA OF PRECIP
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO START THE SHORT TERM...AND THEN SLOWLY
MERGE THIS INTO THE OVERALL PRECIP SHIELD OF SANDY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN CWA AS
SANDY MAKES LANDFALL. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LAND
FALL...WITH GFS/NAM SHOWING A CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ ENTRY POINT...AND
THE ECMWF A BIT SOUTH IN DELMARVA.
NO MATTER THE EXACT LANDFALL...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A
HIGH PRECIP/HIGH WIND FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW AND 40+ KT
WIND GUSTS COULD CREATE QUITE THE WINTER STORM WITH DRIFTING AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.
INHERITED THE WINTER STORM WATCH...AND AFTER REWORKING THE SNOW
GRIDS DID NOT FEEL CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE WHERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND ULTIMATELY WHERE THE BEST TEMP
PROFILE FOR SNOW SETS UP...IS KIND OF TRICKY WITH THIS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. WILL LIKELY SEE WAA COMING IN ON NORTH WINDS FOR A
TIME...AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME CAA COMING WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON JUST WHERE THE COLDEST MIDLEVEL AIR
WILL BE...OR EVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE. 00Z GFS/NAM AGREE ON -4C TO
-5C 850 TEMPS BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE 00Z ECMWF IS WARMER WITH -1C
TO -2C. THE GFS/NAM WOULD HINT TOWARDS SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN WITH
SOME FLAKES FALLING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...THINK WITH THE WARM GROUND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND SANDY/S TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS IN GENERAL...AND SPECIFICALLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH REGARD TO WHERE SANDY/S LANDFALL...NHC/S TRACK
HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW BRINGS THE CENTER ASHORE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. WITH THE STORM STILL BEING FOUR DAYS AWAY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OBVIOUSLY STILL EXIST WITH HOW EXT GUIDANCE
HANDLES SANDY/S TRACK. TO SOME EXTENT EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SANDY/S POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE WITH
STRONG COLD AIR INTRUSION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL HAVE
MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS AS TO THE SNOW/ICE IMPACTS OUR FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WIND SPEEDS.
BREAKING DOWN THE SIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXT MODELS AND
STARTING WITH THE 00Z EC...SANDY/S CENTER COMES ASHORE OVER DELMARVA
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
WV AREA BY 12Z TUE. THE SFC CENTER FILLS RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL WITH A SFC PRESS OF 982MB BY SAME TIME WITH WARM ADVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY MEAN MUCH
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERALL AREA BUT WOULD ALSO MEAN A
LESSER LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUM SNOWFALL FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE
540DAM THICKNESS HEIGHT LINE REMAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BECOME THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH
THIS SCENARIO FOR LOWLANDS WITH A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF QPF DEPICTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BRING SANDY/S CENTER ASHORE NEAR
NYC TUES AFTERNOON WITH A SW RETROGRADE NEAR PHILLY BY TUE
EVE...BEFORE KICKING IT OUT TO THE N/NW WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
BRINGS A LONGER WIND EVENT CONTINUING WELL INTO TUE WITH THE SFC LOW
FARTHER AWAY. THIS SCENARIO ALSO ALLOWS COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE 540DAM LINE COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING AND WELL SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPELL SNOWFALL FOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS AS WELL. EVEN SO...WITH WARM SFC TEMPS FROM A WEEK OF VERY
WARM WEATHER IT WOULD PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO
ACCUM ON ROADWAYS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL SIDE THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC WHICH
IS MUCH CLOSER TO NHC/S CURRENT TRACK AND THUS WILL LEAN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. EITHER
WAY...THOUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IS STILL 2-3 DAYS OUT
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SNOWSHOE.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL KEEP WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS GOING THROUGH 00Z WED WITH THE LONG
DURATION POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER TWO
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR WV ZONES...WITH MUCH OF IT COMING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY. LITTLE SNOW
SHOULD ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES WITH SUCH VERY WARM TEMPS IN
PLACE THIS WEEK. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FINAL TRACK AND
ANY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH COULD MAKE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN
RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED AND WHERE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALONG
WITH WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OOZING E ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT WILL THEN HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS
SAT AND SAT EVENING WILL BRING MVFR VSBYS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...WITH LIGHT SE FLOW AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE LIGHT N TO NW
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FRESHEN A BIT SAT AND THEN REMAIN
NEAR 10 KTS MOST LOCALES SAT NT. FRONT ALOFT WILL ENTER WESTERN WV
SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN STALL THERE. LIGHT N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MODERATE N TO NE SAT AFTERNOON AND NT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALOFT...LIGHT SE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT S SAT AND
THEN LIGHT E TO NE LATE SAT AND SAT NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MATERIALIZATION IN QUESTION SAT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 10/27/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE
LOW TERRAIN...WITH SNOW PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY...WHEN MOST OF WHAT IS SNOW IS WET SNOW. FOR THE OTHERWISE RAIN
DOMINATED LOWLANDS...WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
150 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND NEW JERSEY COAST ON
MONDAY. THE VERY LARGE STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC AND DEVASTATING STORM INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN PA. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WARREN
COUNTY...EDGING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. I LIKE THE HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE RAIN BAND TIGHTENING UP AND REMAINING OVER NWRN
AREAS...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA DRY INTO SUNDAY.
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS
FRONTAL ZONE AS THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION INTENSIFIES IN
RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW FROM THE LARGE HURRICANE SANDY...WHICH WILL
HELP BUILD THE HEIGHTS OVER THE NERN US AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING AND ANTICYCLONIC ELONGATING
OF THE IMPRESSIVE JET ENTRANCE. SO FAR HOWEVER...RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN TERRIBLY HEAVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES SEEN FOR SUNDAY. THE SQUEEZE PLAY /BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING AND AMPLIFYING MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH/CFRONT...AND THE
PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF TS SANDY/ WILL
LEAD TO A BLOSSOMING AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION...MAINLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NW AND SE SECTIONS OF PENN /INCLUDING THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY/
WILL SEE THE STEADIEST RAIN SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.50 BY
00Z MONDAY...WHILE MOST OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION WILL
SEE RELATIVELY LIGHTER AMOUNTS.
AFTERWARD...THE WAITING GAME NEARS ITS GRAND FINALE /WITH RESPECT TO
SANDY`S HEAVY RAIN AND LANDFALL LOCATION/ AS SHE BEGINS HER
NORTHWEST CURL TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WARM GULF
STREAM WATERS VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF
INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD NNWD WELL AHEAD OF SANDY...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL PA ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST 00Z-06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP THE RANGE OF
POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATIONS...WITH THE MEAN NOW BEING BETWEEN
ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY...AND OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MONDAY EVENING.
THIS PATH IS VERY OMINOUS FOR THE LARGE POPULATION AREA OF
SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH BANDS SQUALLS
CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IMPACTING THE REGION. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE A SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO THREAT NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
KLNS AND KMDT AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
WIND FIELDS SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SANDY TAKES A LIKELY TRACK WWD INTO CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN PENN. NORTHEAST TO NW WINDS OF 60 PLUS KTS ARE FCST TO
BE ONLY ABOUT 2 KFT AGL...WITH THE 50 KT CONTOUR AT 1 KFT AGL.
THESE WINDS WILL EASILY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC BY THE HEAVY
RAIN-BANDS...BUT LIKELY MOST SEVERELY IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTH AND EAST...BEFORE BECOMING SLIGHTLY DAMPENED TWD THE
CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVIER QUASI-SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WILL EASILY MIX OUT
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 50KTS SHOULD THIS EXPECTED MODEL MEAN TRACK /AND
TPCS/ VERIFY.
WE POSTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SE ZONES A SHORT TIME AGO...AND IT
WILL RUN FROM 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WED...WITH 4 INCHES OF MORE
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
6-10 INCHES ARE ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS THE HYBRID
STORM IN CAPTURED...THEN ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING AND STRONGLY NEG
TILT UPPER TROUGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE PLETHORA OF PROBLEMS RELATED TO WIND...RAIN AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW STILL REMAINS FOR THE RIDGES OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE 850 MB WET BULB TEMPS COOL TO JUST UNDER 0C FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MUCH HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
MTNS OF WVA.
SANDY AND THE UPPER TROUGH CAPTURING IT FROM THE WEST...EVOLVE INTO
A LARGE/STACKED LOW ACROSS THE NRN VIRGINIAS OR CENTRAL PENN TUESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING AND DRIFTING NNE DURING THE MIDWEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
THE RIDGES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK/HALLOWEEN PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. KBFD /WHICH WAS
SOCKED IN WITH 200FT CIGS AND FOG ALL MORNING/ HAS SEEN THE FOG
SCOUR OUT AND CIGS RISE THIS AFTN...AS WINDS SHIFTED FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
A COLD FRONT AND ITS ACCOMPANYING N-S BAND OF LGT TO MOD RA WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WRN PA...AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO
MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT KBFD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS. THE SAME SHOULD HAPPEN AT KJST AS WELL.
LOW MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
AT OTHER CENTRAL PA TAF SITES AS WELL...WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS SANDY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDS PERSISTING...WITH -RA POSSIBLE.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. PERIODS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS/LLWS ASSOC WITH SANDY.
WED-THU...BREEZY. MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHRA WEST...MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND NEW JERSEY COAST ON
MONDAY. THE VERY LARGE STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC AND DEVASTATING STORM INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN PA. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WARREN
COUNTY...EDGING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. I LIKE THE HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE RAIN BAND TIGHTENING UP AND REMAINING OVER NWRN
AREAS...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA DRY INTO SUNDAY.
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS
FRONTAL ZONE AS THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION INTENSIFIES IN
RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW FROM THE LARGE HURRICANE SANDY...WHICH WILL
HELP BUILD THE HEIGHTS OVER THE NERN US AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING AND ANTICYCLONIC ELONGATING
OF THE IMPRESSIVE JET ENTRANCE. SO FAR HOWEVER...RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN TERRIBLY HEAVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES SEEN FOR SUNDAY. THE SQUEEZE PLAY /BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING AND AMPLIFYING MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH/CFRONT...AND THE
PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF TS SANDY/ WILL
LEAD TO A BLOSSOMING AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION...MAINLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NW AND SE SECTIONS OF PENN /INCLUDING THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY/
WILL SEE THE STEADIEST RAIN SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.50 BY
00Z MONDAY...WHILE MOST OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION WILL
SEE RELATIVELY LIGHTER AMOUNTS.
AFTERWARD...THE WAITING GAME NEARS ITS GRAND FINALE /WITH RESPECT TO
SANDY`S HEAVY RAIN AND LANDFALL LOCATION/ AS SHE BEGINS HER
NORTHWEST CURL TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WARM GULF
STREAM WATERS VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF
INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD NNWD WELL AHEAD OF SANDY...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL PA ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST 00Z-06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP THE RANGE OF
POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATIONS...WITH THE MEAN NOW BEING BETWEEN
ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY...AND OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MONDAY EVENING.
THIS PATH IS VERY OMINOUS FOR THE LARGE POPULATION AREA OF
SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH BANDS SQUALLS
CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IMPACTING THE REGION. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE A SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO THREAT NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
KLNS AND KMDT AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
WIND FIELDS SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SANDY TAKES A LIKELY TRACK WWD INTO CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN PENN. NORTHEAST TO NW WINDS OF 60 PLUS KTS ARE FCST TO
BE ONLY ABOUT 2 KFT AGL...WITH THE 50 KT CONTOUR AT 1 KFT AGL.
THESE WINDS WILL EASILY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC BY THE HEAVY
RAIN-BANDS...BUT LIKELY MOST SEVERELY IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTH AND EAST...BEFORE BECOMING SLIGHTLY DAMPENED TWD THE
CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVIER QUASI-SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WILL EASILY MIX OUT
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 50KTS SHOULD THIS EXPECTED MODEL MEAN TRACK /AND
TPCS/ VERIFY.
WE POSTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SE ZONES A SHORT TIME AGO...AND IT
WILL RUN FROM 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WED...WITH 4 INCHES OF MORE
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
6-10 INCHES ARE ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS THE HYBRID
STORM IN CAPTURED...THEN ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING AND STRONGLY NEG
TILT UPPER TROUGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE PLETHORA OF PROBLEMS RELATED TO WIND...RAIN AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW STILL REMAINS FOR THE RIDGES OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE 850 MB WET BULB TEMPS COOL TO JUST UNDER 0C FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MUCH HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
MTNS OF WVA.
SANDY AND THE UPPER TROUGH CAPTURING IT FROM THE WEST...EVOLVE INTO
A LARGE/STACKED LOW ACROSS THE NRN VIRGINIAS OR CENTRAL PENN TUESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING AND DRIFTING NNE DURING THE MIDWEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
THE RIDGES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK/HALLOWEEN PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING N-S BAND OF LGT TO MOD RA WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE. SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND T.S. SANDY SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY
ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN SXNS. CIGS MAY RISE A BIT DURING THE
AFTN...BUT NOT MUCH.
AS WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO LOW MVFR-IFR
CONDS TONIGHT. FRONTAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACRS WRN SXNS WITH
POCKETS OF -RADZ ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. PERIODS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS/LLWS ASSOC WITH SANDY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SW PA
MTNS ON TUE.
WED...BREEZY. MVFR/IFR WITH RA-SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR CENTRAL AND
EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
SATURDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO MONDAY DEVELOPING INTO A POWERFUL NOR-EASTER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 215 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER
THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE BY MID DAY...RESULTING IN
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL ADJUST WIND
TIMING AND STRENGTH.
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MTNS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 23Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE LIGHT PRECIP BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TN BUT KEEPS THE SHOWERS THERE...WITH NO
DEVELOPMENT SEEN AHEAD OF IT. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE IT TO THE MTNS UNTIL LATE MORNING SO POP TREND WAS SLOWED
GREATLY.
AS OF 915 PM EDT...WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FCST FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
AS THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. MONITORING LOW
STRATUS AND SHOWERS BOTH NEAR THE COLD FRONT /MIDDLE TN/ AND IN THE
MOIST REGION UPSTREAM IN EASTERLY FLOW /ERN NC/. THE ONGOING LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF RDU WOULD REACH THE NC PIEDMONT AROUND
04Z IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. MOISTURE DOES KEEP INCREASING AND THE
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE SO THAT IS PLAUSIBLE. WILL
BRING UP THE ONSET TIME TO 04Z OVER DAVIE/ROWAN/CABARRUS...THOUGH IF
THE SHOWERS MAKE IT THERE IN THIS STATE THEY WILL PROBABLY ONLY GET
SPRINKLES.
AS OF 730 PM EDT...EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LAYER WILL PROMOTE CLOUD AND PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO MOISTENS IN THAT AREA...ENABLING LOW STRATUS TO
ALSO FORM. AT THE PRESENT TIME POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT LOOK A LITTLE
TOO LOW AND SO THEY WILL BE INCREASED AND EXPANDED WESTWARD. ON
ANOTHER NOTE...COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING RATHER SLOWLY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND MODEL DEPICTED FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WILL LOWER CHANCES TO SLIGHT
UNTIL MORNING.
AS OF 430 PM EDT...DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MTNS BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT THE AREA WILL SEE
ANY SHOWERS AT ALL. CONVERGENCE LINE NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS PRODUCING A BAND OF CUMULUS BUT NO RADAR
RETURNS INDICATIVE OF PRECIP. MESO MODELS EITHER KEEP THE MTNS DRY
INTO THE EVENING OR SHOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WHICH NOW SEEM
UNLIKELY GIVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CU OVER THE MTNS
FLATTENING OUT. UPDATED SKY TRENDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CIRRUS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY LEANING SUNNIER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAINTAINED INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF
THE SE COASTLINE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NRLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD FROM A DEEPENING
MANITOBA/ONTARIO VORTEX WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH AXIS W OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM KJKL TO KCSV WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN
TN TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS ON SAT.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...THE MODELS WRING OUT ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS IN THE SW MTNS IN CONVERGENT BL FLOW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THE FORCING REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALONG THE STALLING
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...BUT CONTINUED WEAK LLVL
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORTS SCHC
TO CHC POPS IN AND NEAR THE MTNS. FARTHER E...LOW LEVEL NE FLOW
SHOULD ADVECT IN ANOTHER STRATUS LAYER FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT. AN
OUTER BAND OF TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE SANDY CIRCULATION
COULD DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TONIGHT AND WRAP WWD TOWARD
THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH SAT. WILL FEATURE MAINLY SCHC
POPS OVER ERN PIEDMONT SECTIONS ON SAT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO
BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE
SHOULD BE SMALLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WITH WARM MINS TONIGHT...AND
COOLER MAXES SAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...BUT CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF SANDY AND ITS ASSOCIATED EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS HOWEVER...ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC/HPC. THE CURRENT FCST TRACK CURVES
THE CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THEN INLAND NEAR THE DELAWARE
BAY TUE MORNING. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM EVEN
THO IT REMAINS RELATIVELY FAR AWAY FROM OUR CWFA. THAT SAID...THE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN CWFA WILL PLAY A BIGGER PART IN
PRECIP CHANCES SAT NITE AND SUN. EXPECT SCT SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER
THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS SAT EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHRA
ELSEWHERE. THESE SHRA DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE TN BORDER BY SUN MORNING. SHRA WILL LINGER THERE
THRU THE DAY EVEN AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND INCREASING FORCING AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY ALL AREAS AS WELL.
SAT NITE WILL STILL BE WARM BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH LOWS
UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE COLD AIR BEGINS MOVING IN SUN WITH
HIGHS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ELSEWHERE.
COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN NITE AND MON AS SANDY
BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE NW AND TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING CAA AND NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP SCT SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER SUN NITE THEN DIMINISHING COVERAGE
MONDAY. SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
3500 FT...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEYS COULD SEE SNOW AS WELL. TOO
EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION COULD DEVELOP...BUT AN INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MIXING. GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS...WITH 40 MPH ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE 3500
FT. HIGHS MONDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRIEFLY WANES MON NITE THEN RETURNS ACROSS THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES TUE. EXPECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH MON EVE
THEN RETURN FOR THE DAY TUE. WINDS DROP OFF A LITTLE MON NITE BUT
REMAIN BREEZY...THEN RETURN EVEN STRONGER ON TUE. TUE LOOKS TO BE
THE WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING WIND ADV LEVELS OVER THE
MTNS WITH HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS COULD REACH 40 TO
45 MPH ELSEWHERE. WIDESPREAD FREEZE OVER THE MTNS STILL EXPECTED MON
NITE WITH LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE...WITH FREEZE POSSIBLE INTO THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TUE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF T.C. SANDY AND THE INTENSE RESULTANT EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM TO NAIL DOWN THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD. IT/S
INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE BEST FORCING AND HIGHEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES FOR THE EVENT ON THE 12 UTC ECWMF HAPPEN TUE NIGHT.
THE 00 UTC GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY NW FLOW
SNOW CHANCES. THE 00 UTC CANADIAN IS LEANING THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
FOR NOW I HAVEN/T UPPED POPS BEYOND THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD ON TUE.
WE/LL REALLY JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE JUST HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE
UPPER LOW DIGS AND IF THE MAJOR AXIS TAKES ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION
LIKE THE GFS HAS. THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH WEATHER TO DEAL
WITH BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TUE
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE FILLED
QUITE A BIT BY WED AFTERNOON...AND WE SHOULD/T BE LOOKING AT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW END WINDY CONDITIONS THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW.
THICKNESSES REMAIN LOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW
PULLING AWAY...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT IN MAY
AREAS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR FROST OR EVEN A FREEZE ACROSS A GOOD
BIT OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT BOTH NIGHTS. MY LOW TEMPS DON/T
QUITE REFLECT A FREEZE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT/S A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. BY THIS TIME THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MORE WESTERLY FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY HAS OBSCURED
THE VIEW OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...RECENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE TRIAD INDICATE THAT CEILINGS RANGED FROM IFR
TO LMVFR AT 5Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS LINE UP WELL WITH THE NAM12
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 8 TO 15 MBS. I WILL USE THE NAM12
SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY BY 8Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AND MAY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MID MORNING. ONCE IFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE...MARGINAL GUSTY NNE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND REMAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. BY 19Z...RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND LOW VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP AND REMAIN
UNTIL SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. AT 5Z...KHKY WAS
ALREADY OBSERVING BKN018. PLAN VIEW OF THE NAM12 CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THAT LOW VALUES WILL EXPAND NE TO SW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS ALONG THE TN BORDER
WILL SEE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND SUNRISE...LIKELY SUPPORTING
A EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE...WITH KAVL IFR BY 12Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE AM...RETURNING TO VFR BY MID DAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH SUNSET. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD EAST OF THE MTNS. UPSLOPE CLOUDS MAY RETURN KAVL
TO MVFR BY 1Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE RESTRICTIVE CIGS AGAIN
INTO SUNDAY. A VIGOROUS PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND HURRICANE SANDY WILL
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...CREATING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CEILING RESTRICTIONS IN THE NW FLOW.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
835 PM MDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CROSS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. THINNER AND HIGHER CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SD WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL FASTER AND SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD.
&&
.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC CLDS WL CONT OVR FCST AREA THRU MON. AREAS OF FOG WL FORM
EAST OF THE BLK HLS TONIGHT...W/ IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. DOWNSLOPE SW
WINDS WL KEEP FOG FM FORMING ALG THE BLK HLS AND THE RAP TERMINAL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
521 PM MDT SUN OCT 28 2012
&&
.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC CLDS WL CONT OVR FCST AREA THRU MON. WITH HIGHER
DEWPTS...AREAS OF FOG WL FORM EAST OF THE BLK HLS TONIGHT...W/ IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. DOWNSLOPE SW WINDS WL KEEP FOG FM FORMING ALG THE
BLK HLS AND THE RAP TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM MDT SUN OCT 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN AB...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN MT AND INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG
JET IS IN PLACE FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH IMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FLOW PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SKIES ARE VARIABLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN MOST AREAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND. KUDX RADAR SHOWING SOME
WEAK RETURNS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
BE REACHING THE GROUND.
MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AS THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE
CLIPS THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL SD. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW IT THIS
MORNING...FROM NORTHWESTERN SD TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL BE
MILDER...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WARMEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS MT DURING
THE DAY AND INTO ND AND NORTHERN SD LATE. THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE IN THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ND BORDER. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PARTLY CLODUY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH 50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
EXTENDED...A DEVELOPING BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
FRIDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE RESULT FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SPRAWLING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO WISCONSIN TO HUDSON
BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER MINNESOTA
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS
STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS IT RUNS INTO
DRIER AIR. IN ADDITION...LAKE CLOUDS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER N-C
TO SW WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL
BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA...AND ANTICIPATE THEM DISSIPATING/THINNING AS
THEY APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL STILL HAVE BRISK NORTH WINDS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP COMPARED
TO FARTHER WEST. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE SHORELINE...THOUGH
DO TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THEM
CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE. IN THE END...WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THOUGH WITH LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOESNT MOVE MUCH ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SANDY MOVES EAST...WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE MORE GUSTY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. PERHAPS A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS COULD POP UP OVER N-C
WISCONSIN THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ANTICIPATE
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS
READINGS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AGAIN THE AFFECTS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ARE THE FOCUS
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE SAME TRENDS BRINGING
SANDY INLAND OVER NJ LATE MONDAY AFTN...THEN HAVE IT MEANDER INTO
WEST/CENTRAL MD/PA. MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS...THEN PCPN CHANCES
OVER CWA AS "SANDY" PUSHES WEST .
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER WI INTO TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND "SANDY"
TO TIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
WIND ADVISORY OVER DOOR CTY IN THE GRIDS AND THAT IS NOT REACHED
UNTIL 12Z TUE..THUS WILL PASS OFF ANY HEADLINES TO NEXT SHIFT.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS/CLOUDS THROUGH THE TUE TO WED PERIOD AS
BOTH EC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS RATHER DRY FROM 850-500 MB...WHILE
ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN ZONES.
"SANDY" TO EXIT SLOWLY WED NIGHT...THU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS EC
LATER PERIODS WITH SLOWER SOLUTION WITH GFS BEING TO PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN CURRENT PATTERN IN THE ATLANTIC. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS
WARMING TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR LATER HALF OF WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...GOOD FLYING WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVER ALL BUT THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE AREAS...WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT
AGL ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AT MTW AND SUE.
RDM
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TUE MORNING ON THE LAKE. WAVES WILL LIKELY HIT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER MON AFTN...MAY NEED TO ISSUE SEPARATE SCA
IF START OF GALE PUSHED OFF LATER INTO MON NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU TOOK A LITTLE WHILE TO
POP...BUT GOT GOING AROUND NOON TODAY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING UPSTREAM...PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES AROUND THE MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. A COUPLE REPORTS OF
SNOW FALLING OUT OF THESE CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOTHING
FALLING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLOUDS AND
TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THESE
CLOUDS DO NOT LOOK REAL THICK OR SOLID IN APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND TEMPS WERE STILL ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
UPSTREAM. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. TRAJECTORY
OF WINDS SUGGESTS MANITOWOC COUNTY MAY GET GRAZED BY LAKE CLOUDS.
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY OVER GREEN BAY FOR BAY CLOUDS TO
IMPACT THE FOX VALLEY...BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. WILL
GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS OVER N-C WISCONSIN...TO THE
LOWER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL ADVECT
LAKE MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE FOX VALLEY ON EASTWARD. IF LAKE/BAY
CLOUDS DO NOT PUSH INLAND IN THE MORNING...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE MORNING...BUT RH PROGS SUGGEST SOME
THINNING/DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
END...WENT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT SATURDAY.
CONCERNS THIS PERIOD IN BEGINNING PART OF FORECAST MON NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AFFECTS OF HURRICANE SANDY PUSH WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY...COOL PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE AT NIGHT...BUT TEMPERED A BIT WITH
POSSIBILITY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE WEST WITH WARM ADVECTION
SETTING UP.
WITH REGARDS TO SANDY...WENT WITH A BASIC 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/EC.
12Z GFS STAYING PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN BRINGING SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND REMAINING ON THE DEEPER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED IN HOW IT IS HANDLING JET ENERGY
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. 00Z EC JOGGED A BIT EAST WITH THE SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN. EITHER WAY ANY PCPN WOULD STAY OVER
FAR EAST PART OF CWA OR OVER LAKE MI TUE INTO WED. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE FURTHER COOLING OF
LOWER LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE POSSIBLE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS.
SANDY TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN WED NIGHT/THU. WARMER...AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THU INTO NEXT SAT
&&
.AVIATION...NICE NIGHT FOR FLYING WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. GOOD DAY SUNDAY AS
WELL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS.
RDM
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
225 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU TOOK A LITTLE WHILE TO
POP...BUT GOT GOING AROUND NOON TODAY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING UPSTREAM...PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES AROUND THE MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. A COUPLE REPORTS OF
SNOW FALLING OUT OF THESE CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOTHING
FALLING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLOUDS AND
TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THESE
CLOUDS DO NOT LOOK REAL THICK OR SOLID IN APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND TEMPS WERE STILL ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
UPSTREAM. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. TRAJECTORY
OF WINDS SUGGESTS MANITOWOC COUNTY MAY GET GRAZED BY LAKE CLOUDS.
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY OVER GREEN BAY FOR BAY CLOUDS TO
IMPACT THE FOX VALLEY...BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. WILL
GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS OVER N-C WISCONSIN...TO THE
LOWER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL ADVECT
LAKE MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE FOX VALLEY ON EASTWARD. IF LAKE/BAY
CLOUDS DO NOT PUSH INLAND IN THE MORNING...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE MORNING...BUT RH PROGS SUGGEST SOME
THINNING/DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
END...WENT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT SATURDAY.
CONCERNS THIS PERIOD IN BEGINNING PART OF FORECAST MON NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AFFECTS OF HURRICANE SANDY PUSH WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY...COOL PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE AT NIGHT...BUT TEMPERED A BIT WITH
POSSIBILITY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE WEST WITH WARM ADVECTION
SETTING UP.
WITH REGARDS TO SANDY...WENT WITH A BASIC 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/EC.
12Z GFS STAYING PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN BRINGING SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND REMAINING ON THE DEEPER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED IN HOW IT IS HANDLING JET ENERGY
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. 00Z EC JOGGED A BIT EAST WITH THE SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN. EITHER WAY ANY PCPN WOULD STAY OVER
FAR EAST PART OF CWA OR OVER LAKE MI TUE INTO WED. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE FURTHER COOLING OF
LOWER LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE POSSIBLE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS.
SANDY TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN WED NIGHT/THU. WARMER...AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THU INTO NEXT SAT
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLDS BASES TDA SHOULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO STAY IN VFR CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CIGS WL LIKELY
DEVELOP TNGT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT DUE
TO LACK OF PRECIPITATION FORCING MECHANISMS.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...RIDGING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND TROPICAL STORM SANDY
SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE
WAS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A 130 KT JET STREAK NEAR
225MB IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE. A STREAM OF CIRRUS EXTENDED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SHORTWAVE INTO MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
FARTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...A BROKEN FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THESE CLOUDS WERE REPRESENTED WELL ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING
BY YET ANOTHER MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 750-800MB. AIRMASS REMAINS COOL
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-7C. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE NORTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN WESTERN IOWA HAVE HELPED TO LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL
TOO MUCH THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOCUS FOR OUR AREA IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING IT
DOWN INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...REACHING FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUNDAY...THE MEMPHIS TN AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN
PUSHING EAST TO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE MASS OF CIRRUS ENTERING
THE DAKOTAS TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...EVEN IF THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO BREAK
UP OR DISSIPATE...THE CLEARING LOOKS TO BE TEMPORARY. THE CIRRUS
APPEARS TO HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS OF A DECAYING MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BEING IN UPPER TROUGHING AND THE LOW SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE 850MB TEMPS AND GENERAL AIRMASS ARE
GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WARMING. IN FACT...THE READINGS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE...CLIMBING FROM -6 TO -8C TODAY TO -4 TO -6C ON SUNDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AROUND...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO STAY STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. THE CIRRUS DECK AND INCOMING MID CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE ACTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD...IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION AND PHASING OF SANDY WITH THE CURRENT
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORTWAVE...RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT AND A COUPLING
OF SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS. THE NET RESULT BY 12Z TUESDAY FROM
ALL MODELS IS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH A DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY SITUATED IN OR NEAR
PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC MODELS HAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THIS SETUP EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING THE PICTURE FOR OUR AREA. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY COOL DUE TO 850MB TEMPS STILL ONLY WARMING
SLOWLY TO -1 TO -4C ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WISE...THERE ARE HINTS OF
SOME WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS COMING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THEN THESE GET SHUNTED SOUTHWEST BY SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEP EASTERN TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND POST-TROPICAL SANDY INSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. 27.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BLOCKED
BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....STRONG UPPER RIDGING NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND AND PERHAPS EVEN RIDGING CONNECTING THESE TWO. AS
SUCH...THE MODELS TAKE AWHILE BEFORE LIFTING THE EASTERN TROUGH OUT.
IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE THE
EJECTION OCCURS. WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH BLOCKED FROM MOVING
MUCH...THE FORECAST AREA STAYS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...MOSTLY PREVENTING PRECIPITATION. ONE CONCERN WOULD
BE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL SANDY
RETROGRADING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SUGGESTS THIS DEFORMATION BAND
WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA...PERHAPS MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN WISCONSIN. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A NORTHERLY BREEZE
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY TOO...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WISCONSIN. FOR FRIDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH CROSSING COLORADO. ANY WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH
AT THE PRESENT TIME...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. BY THURSDAY...READINGS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
1130 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOWEST
CIGS PROBABLY 8-10 KFT...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ANY SMALL PCPN CHANCES WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING AT THE
SFC...WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT DUE
TO LACK OF PRECIPITATION FORCING MECHANISMS.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...RIDGING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND TROPICAL STORM SANDY
SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE
WAS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A 130 KT JET STREAK NEAR
225MB IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE. A STREAM OF CIRRUS EXTENDED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SHORTWAVE INTO MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
FARTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...A BROKEN FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THESE CLOUDS WERE REPRESENTED WELL ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING
BY YET ANOTHER MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 750-800MB. AIRMASS REMAINS COOL
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-7C. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE NORTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN WESTERN IOWA HAVE HELPED TO LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL
TOO MUCH THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOCUS FOR OUR AREA IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING IT
DOWN INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...REACHING FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUNDAY...THE MEMPHIS TN AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN
PUSHING EAST TO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE MASS OF CIRRUS ENTERING
THE DAKOTAS TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...EVEN IF THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO BREAK
UP OR DISSIPATE...THE CLEARING LOOKS TO BE TEMPORARY. THE CIRRUS
APPEARS TO HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS OF A DECAYING MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BEING IN UPPER TROUGHING AND THE LOW SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE 850MB TEMPS AND GENERAL AIRMASS ARE
GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WARMING. IN FACT...THE READINGS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE...CLIMBING FROM -6 TO -8C TODAY TO -4 TO -6C ON SUNDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AROUND...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO STAY STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. THE CIRRUS DECK AND INCOMING MID CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE ACTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD...IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION AND PHASING OF SANDY WITH THE CURRENT
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORTWAVE...RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT AND A COUPLING
OF SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS. THE NET RESULT BY 12Z TUESDAY FROM
ALL MODELS IS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH A DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY SITUATED IN OR NEAR PENNSYLVANIA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EAST PACIFIC
MODELS HAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THIS SETUP EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING THE PICTURE FOR OUR AREA. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY COOL DUE TO 850MB TEMPS STILL ONLY
WARMING SLOWLY TO -1 TO -4C ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WISE...THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS COMING INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THEN THESE GET SHUNTED
SOUTHWEST BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEP EASTERN
TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND POST-TROPICAL SANDY INSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. 27.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BLOCKED
BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....STRONG UPPER RIDGING NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND AND PERHAPS EVEN RIDGING CONNECTING THESE TWO. AS
SUCH...THE MODELS TAKE AWHILE BEFORE LIFTING THE EASTERN TROUGH OUT.
IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE THE
EJECTION OCCURS. WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH BLOCKED FROM MOVING
MUCH...THE FORECAST AREA STAYS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...MOSTLY PREVENTING PRECIPITATION. ONE CONCERN WOULD
BE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL SANDY
RETROGRADING SLOLWY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SUGGESTS THIS DEFORMATION BAND
WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA...PERHAPS MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN WISCONSIN. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A NORTHERLY BREEZE
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY TOO...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WISCONSIN. FOR FRIDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH CROSSING COLORADO. ANY WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH
AT THE PRESENT TIME...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. BY THURSDAY...READINGS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
540 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. IR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING PESKY STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE BECOMING MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS.
GOING WITH SCT050 TODAY AT BOTH KLSE/KRST THROUGH 23Z. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE/MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WILL THEN BRING LOWERING ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTING LOWEST
CEILING SOMEWHERE IN THE 7-10KFT RANGE THROUGH 12Z. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING BULK OF
ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUD WITH IT. WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5KT OR LESS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT DUE
TO LACK OF PRECIPITATION FORCING MECHANISMS.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...RIDGING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND TROPICAL STORM SANDY
SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE
WAS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A 130 KT JET STREAK NEAR
225MB IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE. A STREAM OF CIRRUS EXTENDED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SHORTWAVE INTO MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
FARTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...A BROKEN FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THESE CLOUDS WERE REPRESENTED WELL ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING
BY YET ANOTHER MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 750-800MB. AIRMASS REMAINS COOL
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-7C. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE NORTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN WESTERN IOWA HAVE HELPED TO LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL
TOO MUCH THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOCUS FOR OUR AREA IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING IT
DOWN INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...REACHING FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUNDAY...THE MEMPHIS TN AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN
PUSHING EAST TO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE MASS OF CIRRUS ENTERING
THE DAKOTAS TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...EVEN IF THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO BREAK
UP OR DISSIPATE...THE CLEARING LOOKS TO BE TEMPORARY. THE CIRRUS
APPEARS TO HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS OF A DECAYING MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BEING IN UPPER TROUGHING AND THE LOW SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE 850MB TEMPS AND GENERAL AIRMASS ARE
GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WARMING. IN FACT...THE READINGS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE...CLIMBING FROM -6 TO -8C TODAY TO -4 TO -6C ON SUNDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AROUND...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO STAY STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. THE CIRRUS DECK AND INCOMING MID CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE ACTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD...IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION AND PHASING OF SANDY WITH THE CURRENT
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORTWAVE...RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT AND A COUPLING
OF SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS. THE NET RESULT BY 12Z TUESDAY FROM
ALL MODELS IS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH A DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY SITUATED IN OR NEAR PENNSYLVANIA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EAST PACIFIC
MODELS HAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THIS SETUP EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING THE PICTURE FOR OUR AREA. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY COOL DUE TO 850MB TEMPS STILL ONLY
WARMING SLOWLY TO -1 TO -4C ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WISE...THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS COMING INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THEN THESE GET SHUNTED
SOUTHWEST BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEP EASTERN
TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND POST-TROPICAL SANDY INSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. 27.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BLOCKED
BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....STRONG UPPER RIDGING NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND AND PERHAPS EVEN RIDGING CONNECTING THESE TWO. AS
SUCH...THE MODELS TAKE AWHILE BEFORE LIFTING THE EASTERN TROUGH OUT.
IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE THE
EJECTION OCCURS. WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH BLOCKED FROM MOVING
MUCH...THE FORECAST AREA STAYS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...MOSTLY PREVENTING PRECIPITATION. ONE CONCERN WOULD
BE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL SANDY
RETROGRADING SLOLWY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SUGGESTS THIS DEFORMATION BAND
WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA...PERHAPS MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN WISCONSIN. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A NORTHERLY BREEZE
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY TOO...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WISCONSIN. FOR FRIDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH CROSSING COLORADO. ANY WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH
AT THE PRESENT TIME...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. BY THURSDAY...READINGS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1129 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
WITH CLOUD COVER THE MAIN CHALLENGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 4 TO 6KFT
STRATOCUMULUS IS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH SOME OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BECOMING LARGER
TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE WITH IT BECOMING EVEN PATCHIER BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW EVENING WITH
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
231 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW THROUGH KBMG
AND ALMOST TO KHUF. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE 40S AT 00Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOCUS OF THE UPDATE WILL BE ON CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVENING. NAM...OP GFS
AND THE RAP ALL WANT TO MIX OUT LOWER CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THAT DOES STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...AS DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HURRICANE SANDY HAVE BEGUN
TO INTERACT. SO EVEN IF STRATOCU DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER WEST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2012
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE STRONG LOW EXITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA AND STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE INDIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE COOL NORTH FLOW DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
AS THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...HOWEVER THE EVOLUTION AND
DEPARTURE OF THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL HAVE A BIG SAY IN THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW...PRECISE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09Z IND TAF/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
ONGOING TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WEST. TAFS REFLECT WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. AGAIN...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE SANDY TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7-10KT...AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS PUSHING 20KT WITH GUSTS TO
30KT...AND PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF MOISTURE SHIELD TO OUR EAST. MAY SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT
BRIEFLY NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ALLOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. BASES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS HURRICANE SANDY GETS
CLOSER. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER AFTER SANDY/S EXIT WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW THROUGH KBMG
AND ALMOST TO KHUF. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE 40S AT 00Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOCUS OF THE UPDATE WILL BE ON CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS EVENING. NAM...OP GFS
AND THE RAP ALL WANT TO MIX OUT LOWER CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THAT DOES STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...AS DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HURRICANE SANDY HAVE BEGUN
TO INTERACT. SO EVEN IF STRATOCU DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER WEST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SANDY TREKS NORTHWESTWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO
INDIANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE FROM THE MET IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AS WELL. IN THE NAM THESE
BEGIN AROUND 18Z MONDAY...IN THE GFS AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THE NAM
STARTS WEAKENING THE WINDS BY AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE GFS
DOESN/T BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NAM WEAKENS
SANDY FASTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE
THE ECM IS ALSO FAVORING THE STRONGER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP THROUGH 0Z SIMILAR TO THE GFS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE THE SOUTH
AND WEST WILL HAVE WINDS BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THEY ARE
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THUS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 21Z MONDAY
THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS. FORCING
IN NAM AND GFS LAGS THE MOISTURE SOME AND THUS THINK KEEPING DRY FOR
NOW PRIOR TO 12Z IS WAY TO GO. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEP
POPS GOING WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO SANDY AND
TAPERING TO DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. BEST FORCING AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY WEAKENS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED ALLBLEND CAPTURED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TRENDS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS FIRST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SECOND FROM A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS...GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SANDY THAN THE 12Z
CANADIAN AS IS PREFERRED. THE FORMER BLEND WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE REGIONAL OUTPUT. THE BLEND HAS THE REMNANTS NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH QPF ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD JUST BE RAIN
SHOWERS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER
COORDINATION...ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REGIONAL OUTPUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK AND LEFT ALONE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST AFTER STARTING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE SANDY TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 7-10KT...AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS PUSHING 20KT WITH GUSTS TO
30KT...AND PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF MOISTURE SHIELD TO OUR EAST. MAY SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT
BRIEFLY NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT ANY CLEARING TO ALLOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. BASES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. NW
FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE OVER CWA...ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF H5 RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK AS H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ONLY OCCASIONAL
INCREASES IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
MIXING WE COULD SEE RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAYBE A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
THOUGH WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 15-20KTS. WITH MARGINAL
CONDITIONS AT BEST...RFW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WAA OVER CWA ON EASTERN
EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH IN THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EAST COAST DEPARTS AND THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...WILL CONFINE
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN OCT 28 2012
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK. WILL HAVE
PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10KTS OR SO AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
WILL VEER TO THE WEST 5-10KTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY BACK TO THE WEST BY
SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
536 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IS IN THE PROCESS
OF PICKING UP SANDY OFF THE EAST COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN
THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AND E OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE LWR LAKES.
SHARP W EDGE OF DENSE CI SHIELD LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER JET
AXIS AND IS VERY SLOWLY EDGING W TOWARD UPPER MI. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO E TX IS
RESULTING IN CLEAR/CALM/CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -5C PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING IS PREVENTING ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS
FROM DEVELOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM AS FCST AREA REMAINS
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOWEVER...
AS POWERFUL STORM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPANDS WESTWARD...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND W
AND CNTRL UPPER MI WILL BE NUDGED W. THIS WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING THICKENING CI SHIELD TO SPREAD
SLOWLY W ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTWARD PUSH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT PCPN EXPANDING W
TOWARD UPPER MI TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...SO PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON TONIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...BY 12Z TUE...950MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 35-40KT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE WATER...WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTS OF 35-40MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO
MUNISING AND POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH EAST OF MUNISING. BEING IN THE
LOW PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH OTHER ENHANCEMENT FACTORS
MISSING...CAA/STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEPENING LOW (SYSTEM IS WEAKENING IN
THIS CASE)...DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO EXTEND MUCH BEYOND THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK REMAINS VERY TRICKY...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
PTYPE AND POPS...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUSED ATTENTION ON
PRECIP/WINDS/TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH WED AND USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS
THEREAFTER.
QUESTION FOR TUE/WED IS NOT IF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT
IS HOW FAR AND TO WHAT EXTENT OF DEPTH THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN ONLY SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER ERN UPPER MI...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASING OUTLIER AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL OF UPPER MI. WILL MAKE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE
PREFERRED MODELS STATED PREVIOUSLY.
EVEN WITH DEEP MOISTURE ONLY BEING DEPICTED OVER AND E OF ALGER AND
DELTA COUNTIES BY FAVORED MODELS...N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 750MB OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI.
SOUNDING SHOW THAT TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
NCENTRAL...BUT THE DGZ WILL BE HIGH AND DRY AT 500-600MB...SO
DRIZZLE IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH
AROUND 00Z WED. DRIZZLE WOULD END WED AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NWLY AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. OF
COURSE...EVEN WITH THE CRANKING N WIND...LOCATIONS A FEW MILES
INLAND SHOULD GET TO OR BELOW FREEZING...SO INCLUDED FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE SFC TEMPS FELL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DURING THIS TIME AS THE SHARP CUT OFF IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
E OF MARQUETTE...AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /12Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD ALREADY BY OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP MAKING SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO PUSH E ON WED AFTERNOON WHILE DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND AND NWLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 875MB
INVERSION TOP TEMPS AROUND -6C...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT NEAR AND E OF MUNISING. AS FAR AS PTYPE OVER
THE E...WITH THE DGZ BEING SATURATED AND TEMP PROFILES OVER ALL BUT
FAR ERN UPPER MI SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW...PTYPE WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT DECIDED BY NEAR SFC TEMPS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER SFC
TEMPS FALL LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SNOW APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
PTYPE FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH THE ERN CWA. COULD SEE AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS OVER NE UPPER MI AWAY FROM
WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS...RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...HIGH DGZ AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW /PROBABLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AS SFC TEMPS INCREASE ON WED/ WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING
UNTIL DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM W TO E LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS CHANGES IN LOCATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMP PROFILES WILL LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN
PTYPE.
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE NOW
MORE FAVORED SCENARIO. THE CHANGES ARE BIGGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL
WHERE SNOW WAS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH NOW HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU TODAY
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND
WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTIER NORTH WINDS AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT W
AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD AROUND STORM
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL LATE TODAY ON THE NEW JERSEY
COAST...WHILE MORPHING INTO AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY AND COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...YET WILL ALSO PERSIST
IN OUR VICINITY TO CAUSE UNSETTLED CHILLY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...STEADY RAIN FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SPREAD
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD STEUBEN CO NY...BUT HAS BROKEN UP
SOMEWHAT. EARLY RAINFALL OBS FROM LUZERNE CO SHOW .2 TO .4" FELL
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY LINE. WHILE STILL EARLY...IT APPEARS DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH AT THE FRINGE OF OUR RADAR...LIKELY DUE TO
BEAM EFFECTS IN THE MELTING LAYER. JUST FYI. FORECAST TIMING AND
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK. CONTINUE TO HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES WITH KITH AND KPEO UNDER A MILE ATTM. PREVIOUS
AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...OUTER EFFECTS FROM SANDY ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS
LUZERNE CO PA WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN. LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE DOING AN OK JOB CAPTURING THIS RAIN...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE
BEST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS IT MAINLY
CLOSE BUT JUST OUT OF OUR CWA. THINKING THAT THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION LOOKS GOOD (SE TO NW BAND OF RAIN) BUT WILL BUMP IT
ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MEANS RAIN LIKELY
FROM LUZERENE...LACKAWANNA...WYOMING COUNTIES IN NEPA...THEN
MOVING TO THE NW INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
OLD BNDRY CONTS TO BE STALLED OVER WRN NY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND HAS KEPT THE FCST AREA FROM BEING
INVOLVED IN THE PRE RAIN. XPCT THIS BNDRY TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF LGT RAIN HAS PUSHED THRU THE CNTRL
AND SRN ZONES THRU THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NE ZONES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD FAST OR EVEN PUSH SWWRD OVRNGT
LIMITING THE RAINFALL TO THE XTRM SE ZONES THRY THE NEAR TERM. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED YET FILLING LOW PRESSURE...THE LEFTOVERS OF
SANDY...WILL STILL HAUNT US THROUGH HALLOWEEN INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. CHILLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOTHING HEAVY
AND WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL PA TUESDAY NIGHT...TO LAKE ONTARIO BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NAM IS A BIT COLDER WITH SUB-540 DM
1000-500MB THICKNESS LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS...925MB TEMPERATURES EVEN IN THE NAM STAY ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS FOR OUR CWA...AND THUS NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS /UNLIKE POINTS FARTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE IT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH/.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILL WHILE LIFTING FARTHER NORTH ON
THURSDAY TO NEAR MONTREAL. HOWEVER...THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE ENTIRE
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SPOKES
OF VORITICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ENSURE LIKELIHOOD OF
MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY TO TWIN TIERS.
DEEP MOISTURE/SOLID CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...COMPELLED ME TO
GENERALLY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RANGE COMPARED TO MODELS...THAT IS
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE BY DAY...AND JUST A TOUCH MILDER BY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. USED HPC GUIDANCE
WITH LTL CHG. HPC FCSTS LOOKED VERY GOOD IN ADVERTISING THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SANDY...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. FCST
TEMPS ARE A LTL WARMER REDUCING THE CHCS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE IN
THE PD (THU NGT/FRI MRNG).
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...TAF PERIOD DOMINATED BY APPROACH OF HURRICANE-NOREASTER
HYBRID. FIRST...AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...A WEAK FRONT MADE ITS WAY
TO KSYR-KITH-KELM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE MINOR
FRONTAL INVERSION FOR IFR OR WORSE CIGS. WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
FLOW FOR KELM...EXPECTING LOW CIG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT IT MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES FOR MVFR CIG AT KSYR AS
LEFTOVERS OF FRONT RETROGRADE BACK WEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INCOMING SYSTEM. WITH FLOW GOING DOWN CAYUGA LAKE...KITH SHOULD
KEEP THEIR LOW CIG UNTIL INCREASING WINDS ALOFT ALLOW STIRRING
LATER THIS MORNING.
THE HURRICANE SANDY-NOREASTER HYBRID WILL MAKE ITS ENTRANCE
TODAY...WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN NJ LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BUT IMPACTS FELT WELL AHEAD OF IT INCLUDING FOR OUR TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS. PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME IFR. STRONGEST GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AND CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN HIGHER SPEEDS...WITH DIRECTION
VEERING NORTHEAST. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50
KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.
WED/THU...MVFR IN SHRA.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA...AND OUR NY COUNTIES BELOW THE
THRUWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PATH OF SANDY THROUGH NJ/SRN PA DURG ITS STGST
PHASE...THE HEAVIEST RAIN (4+" BASIN AVG) SHOULD STAY MAINLY S OF
OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINT TOTALS NEAR 4" ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
BOTTOM LN...WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR
CERTAIN PTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE SHORT-TERM SECTION ABV.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY WILL COME ONSHORE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE ON
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS INTO OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...STEADY RAIN FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SPREAD
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD STEUBEN CO NY...BUT HAS BROKEN UP
SOMEWHAT. EARLY RAINFALL OBS FROM LUZERNE CO SHOW .2 TO .4" FELL
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY LINE. WHILE STILL EARLY...IT APPEARS DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH AT THE FRINGE OF OUR RADAR...LIKELY DUE TO
BEAM EFFECTS IN THE MELTING LAYER. JUST FYI. FORECAST TIMING AND
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK. CONTINUE TO HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES WITH KITH AND KPEO UNDER A MILE ATTM. PREVIOUS
AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...OUTER EFFECTS FROM SANDY ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS
LUZERNE CO PA WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN. LATEST HI RES MODELS
ARE DOING AN OK JOB CAPTURING THIS RAIN...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE
BEST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS IT MAINLY
CLOSE BUT JUST OUT OF OUR CWA. THINKING THAT THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION LOOKS GOOD (SE TO NW BAND OF RAIN) BUT WILL BUMP IT
ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MEANS RAIN LIKELY
FROM LUZERENE...LACKAWANNA...WYOMING COUNTIES IN NEPA...THEN
MOVING TO THE NW INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
OLD BNDRY CONTS TO BE STALLED OVER WRN NY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND HAS KEPT THE FCST AREA FROM BEING
INVOLVED IN THE PRE RAIN. XPCT THIS BNDRY TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF LGT RAIN HAS PUSHED THRU THE CNTRL
AND SRN ZONES THRU THE DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NE ZONES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD FAST OR EVEN PUSH SWWRD OVRNGT
LIMITING THE RAINFALL TO THE XTRM SE ZONES THRY THE NEAR TERM. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LTL DOUBT NOW IN THE TRACK OF SANDY WITH A NJ CST LANDFALL AND A
STALL IN SRN/CNTRL PA. THIS KEEPS THE FCST AREA IN THE RGT FNT
QUAD OF THE STORM...CREATING MORE CONCRN FOR WINDS BUT LESS FOR
RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE VERY STRONG WITH NAM MODEL SNDG FCSTS OF 70 KTS IN THE
UNSTABLE LYR NEAR THE GND DURING THE PK PD AFT 00Z TUE. THIS SHD
TRANSLATE TO 30 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND A SOME GUSTS NEAR OR OVER
60 MPH. WITH THE ELY DIRECTION...TREES THAT HAVE GROWN TO
WITHSTAND WEST WIND MAY BE COMPROMISED BY THIS STRONG EAST FLOW.
LOW BEGINS TO FILL RAPIDLY WITH THE GRADIENT LOOSENING
CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z WED.
PCPN LOOKS TO PEAK OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN CATS AND
POCONOS...WITH SOME SHADOWING EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM...ESP OVER CNTRL
NY. ALSO...THERE/S SCNDRY PCPN PEAK OVER THE WRN ZONES. IN
GNRL...NOT ENUF FCSTD QPF TO CAUSE ANYTHING OTR THAN SOME MINOR
FLOODING..AT WORST. HWVR...WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM...NEVER DEEL
COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE WITH ANY RAINFALL FCST. ALSO...IT/S DFCLT
TO FCST THE AMT OF EXTRA PCPN WILL BE GENERATED BY THE TERRAIN.
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTD.
MON WILL START WITH A CONTD INFLOW OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT NWRD AS SANDY APRCHS. THEN... STEADY
RAIN CONTS THRU TUE AS SANDY STALLS OVER PA. MODELS DO CONT TO
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NRN ZONES BUT IN GNRL...CAT POPS
JUSTIFIED THRU TUE WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS OVER THE PA ZONES
AND UPSLOPE AREAS.
LINGERING LGTR PCPN CONTS THRU WEDS SANDY CONTS TO FILL AND LIFT
NWRD. NOT ENUF COLD AIR AVBL ALOFT...AND CERTAINLY NOT AT THE
SFC...FOR ANY MENTION OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO NEAR TERM CONCERNS. USED HPC GUIDANCE
WITH LTL CHG. HPC FCSTS LOOKED VERY GOOD IN ADVERTISING THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SANDY...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. FCST
TEMPS ARE A LTL WARMER REDUCING THE CHCS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE IN
THE PD (THU NGT/FRI MRNG).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...TAF PERIOD DOMINATED BY APPROACH OF HURRICANE-NOREASTER
HYBRID. FIRST...AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...A WEAK FRONT MADE ITS WAY
TO KSYR-KITH-KELM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE MINOR
FRONTAL INVERSION FOR IFR OR WORSE CIGS. WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
FLOW FOR KELM...EXPECTING LOW CIG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT IT MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES FOR MVFR CIG AT KSYR AS
LEFTOVERS OF FRONT RETROGRADE BACK WEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INCOMING SYSTEM. WITH FLOW GOING DOWN CAYUGA LAKE...KITH SHOULD
KEEP THEIR LOW CIG UNTIL INCREASING WINDS ALOFT ALLOW STIRRING
LATER THIS MORNING.
THE HURRICANE SANDY-NOREASTER HYBRID WILL MAKE ITS ENTRANCE
TODAY...WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN NJ LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BUT IMPACTS FELT WELL AHEAD OF IT INCLUDING FOR OUR TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS. PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME IFR. STRONGEST GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AND CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN HIGHER SPEEDS...WITH DIRECTION
VEERING NORTHEAST. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50
KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.
WED/THU...MVFR IN SHRA.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA...AND OUR NY COUNTIES BELOW THE
THRUWAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PATH OF SANDY THROUGH NJ/SRN PA DURG ITS STGST
PHASE...THE HEAVIEST RAIN (4+" BASIN AVG) SHOULD STAY MAINLY S OF
OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINT TOTALS NEAR 4" ARE CERTAINLY PSBL.
BOTTOM LN...WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR
CERTAIN PTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...REFER TO THE SHORT-TERM SECTION ABV.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TROUGH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PHASE
PROCESS WITH SANDY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SANDY
TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORELINE BY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
TROUGHS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS IN THE
CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.
29.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 28.21Z SREF ALL IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. A COUPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. A FEW MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TROUGH COULD SKIRT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURE
PRETTY STATIC TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 3-5C RANGE WITH SOME
MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 4-8C RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING SOME INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
AGAIN IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEEN READING IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY
AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED A BIT MORE FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE NORTHWEST WIND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY FILLING AND MOVING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING
FOR OUR AREA. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM DIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
DROPS IN VISIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FROST MELTS AND BRINGS
SOME HAZE IN AS A RESULT...BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF SEEING ANY
LOWERED VIS IS SO LOW THAT IT IS NOT WORTH PUTTING IN THE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SPRAWLING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO WISCONSIN TO HUDSON
BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER MINNESOTA
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS
STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS IT RUNS INTO
DRIER AIR. IN ADDITION...LAKE CLOUDS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER N-C
TO SW WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL
BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA...AND ANTICIPATE THEM DISSIPATING/THINNING AS
THEY APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL STILL HAVE BRISK NORTH WINDS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP COMPARED
TO FARTHER WEST. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE SHORELINE...THOUGH
DO TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THEM
CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE. IN THE END...WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THOUGH WITH LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOESNT MOVE MUCH ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SANDY MOVES EAST...WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE MORE GUSTY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. PERHAPS A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS COULD POP UP OVER N-C
WISCONSIN THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ANTICIPATE
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS
READINGS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AGAIN THE AFFECTS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ARE THE FOCUS
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE SAME TRENDS BRINGING
SANDY INLAND OVER NJ LATE MONDAY AFTN...THEN HAVE IT MEANDER INTO
WEST/CENTRAL MD/PA. MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS...THEN PCPN CHANCES
OVER CWA AS "SANDY" PUSHES WEST .
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER WI INTO TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND "SANDY"
TO TIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
WIND ADVISORY OVER DOOR CTY IN THE GRIDS AND THAT IS NOT REACHED
UNTIL 12Z TUE..THUS WILL PASS OFF ANY HEADLINES TO NEXT SHIFT.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS/CLOUDS THROUGH THE TUE TO WED PERIOD AS
BOTH EC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS RATHER DRY FROM 850-500 MB...WHILE
ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN ZONES.
"SANDY" TO EXIT SLOWLY WED NIGHT...THU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS EC
LATER PERIODS WITH SLOWER SOLUTION WITH GFS BEING TO PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN CURRENT PATTERN IN THE ATLANTIC. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS
WARMING TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR LATER HALF OF WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...GOOD FLYING WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS...WHERE SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME AT MTW AND SUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RDM
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TUE MORNING ON THE LAKE. WAVES WILL LIKELY HIT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER MON AFTN...MAY NEED TO ISSUE SEPARATE SCA
IF START OF GALE PUSHED OFF LATER INTO MON NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
455 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. NW
FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE OVER CWA...ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF H5 RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK AS H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ONLY OCCASIONAL
INCREASES IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
MIXING WE COULD SEE RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAYBE A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
THOUGH WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 15-20KTS. WITH MARGINAL
CONDITIONS AT BEST...RFW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WAA OVER CWA ON EASTERN
EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH IN THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EAST COAST DEPARTS AND THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...WILL CONFINE
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE LOW OVER NW KS AND SW NE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IS IN THE PROCESS
OF PICKING UP SANDY OFF THE EAST COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN
THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AND E OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE LWR LAKES.
SHARP W EDGE OF DENSE CI SHIELD LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER JET
AXIS AND IS VERY SLOWLY EDGING W TOWARD UPPER MI. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO E TX IS
RESULTING IN CLEAR/CALM/CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -5C PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING IS PREVENTING ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS
FROM DEVELOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM AS FCST AREA REMAINS
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOWEVER...
AS POWERFUL STORM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPANDS WESTWARD...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND W
AND CNTRL UPPER MI WILL BE NUDGED W. THIS WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING THICKENING CI SHIELD TO SPREAD
SLOWLY W ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTWARD PUSH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT PCPN EXPANDING W
TOWARD UPPER MI TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...SO PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON TONIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...BY 12Z TUE...950MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 35-40KT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE WATER...WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTS OF 35-40MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO
MUNISING AND POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH EAST OF MUNISING. BEING IN THE
LOW PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH OTHER ENHANCEMENT FACTORS
MISSING...CAA/STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEPENING LOW (SYSTEM IS WEAKENING IN
THIS CASE)...DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO EXTEND MUCH BEYOND THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK REMAINS VERY TRICKY...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
PTYPE AND POPS...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUSED ATTENTION ON
PRECIP/WINDS/TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH WED AND USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS
THEREAFTER.
QUESTION FOR TUE/WED IS NOT IF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT
IS HOW FAR AND TO WHAT EXTENT OF DEPTH THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN ONLY SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER ERN UPPER MI...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASING OUTLIER AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL OF UPPER MI. WILL MAKE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE
PREFERRED MODELS STATED PREVIOUSLY.
EVEN WITH DEEP MOISTURE ONLY BEING DEPICTED OVER AND E OF ALGER AND
DELTA COUNTIES BY FAVORED MODELS...N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 750MB OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI.
SOUNDING SHOW THAT TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
NCENTRAL...BUT THE DGZ WILL BE HIGH AND DRY AT 500-600MB...SO
DRIZZLE IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH
AROUND 00Z WED. DRIZZLE WOULD END WED AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NWLY AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. OF
COURSE...EVEN WITH THE CRANKING N WIND...LOCATIONS A FEW MILES
INLAND SHOULD GET TO OR BELOW FREEZING...SO INCLUDED FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE SFC TEMPS FELL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DURING THIS TIME AS THE SHARP CUT OFF IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
E OF MARQUETTE...AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /12Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD ALREADY BY OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP MAKING SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO PUSH E ON WED AFTERNOON WHILE DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND AND NWLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 875MB
INVERSION TOP TEMPS AROUND -6C...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT NEAR AND E OF MUNISING. AS FAR AS PTYPE OVER
THE E...WITH THE DGZ BEING SATURATED AND TEMP PROFILES OVER ALL BUT
FAR ERN UPPER MI SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW...PTYPE WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT DECIDED BY NEAR SFC TEMPS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER SFC
TEMPS FALL LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SNOW APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
PTYPE FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH THE ERN CWA. COULD SEE AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS OVER NE UPPER MI AWAY FROM
WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS...RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...HIGH DGZ AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW /PROBABLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AS SFC TEMPS INCREASE ON WED/ WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING
UNTIL DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM W TO E LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS CHANGES IN LOCATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMP PROFILES WILL LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN
PTYPE.
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE NOW
MORE FAVORED SCENARIO. THE CHANGES ARE BIGGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL
WHERE SNOW WAS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH NOW HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...
THE RIDGE WILL BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND INTENSE LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT W
AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD AROUND STORM
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TROUGH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PHASE
PROCESS WITH SANDY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SANDY
TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORELINE BY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
TROUGHS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS IN THE
CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.
29.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 28.21Z SREF ALL IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. A COUPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. A FEW MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TROUGH COULD SKIRT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURE
PRETTY STATIC TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 3-5C RANGE WITH SOME
MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 4-8C RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING SOME INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
AGAIN IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEEN READING IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY
AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED A BIT MORE FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE NORTHWEST WIND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY FILLING AND MOVING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING
FOR OUR AREA. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
600 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DUE TO DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE. THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE IS A BAND OF
ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WHICH LOOKS TO
AFFECT KRST BETWEEN 16-03Z. ALSO WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY...PLAN ON WIND SPEEDS TO STAY UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1014 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK THOUGH MAY HAVE
TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR A FEW DEGREES AS WRF
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS KEEP WAVE CLOUD IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ENOUGH MIXING IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS...CURRENT WIND FORECAST GRIDS SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. LATEST HRRR AND RUC
SHOWING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT DIA AROUND 20Z. FEEL
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PROVIDE MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012/
SHORT TERM...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SOME OF WHICH MAY MIX DOWN
TO THE GROUND AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. JUST IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS HAVE GUSTED TO
+40KTS. NOT REALLY EXPECTED GUSTS MUCH HIGHER THAN THIS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INCH UP WITH MID 60S TO LOWER
70S ON THE PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AVERAGE
HIGH AT DENVER TODAY IS 60. ASSUMING THE MTN WAVE CLOUD DON/T HANG
AROUND ALL DAY...SHOULD SEE THE MERCURY REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
THE METRO AREA. TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY AND THE MTN WAVE BREAKS DOWN. GOING
WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO UNDER THE
RIDGE.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE ECMWF
FORECASTS THE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPCOMING FORECASTS
CAN TREND HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST 6-12KT AT DENVER METRO AREA AIRPORTS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT OF 5-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. NW
FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE OVER CWA...ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF H5 RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK AS H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ONLY OCCASIONAL
INCREASES IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
MIXING WE COULD SEE RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAYBE A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
THOUGH WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 15-20KTS. WITH MARGINAL
CONDITIONS AT BEST...RFW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WAA OVER CWA ON EASTERN
EXTENT OF LEE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH IN THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SANDY ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EAST COAST DEPARTS AND THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...WILL CONFINE
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON OCT 29 2012
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF HAS HELPED STEER
HURRICANE SANDY WESTWARD ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD
AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WRN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ASSOC
WITH THE UPR DIV OF JET MAX HAS EDGED INTO THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY HAVE REACHED GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN EAST COAST STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE NORTH WINDS AOA 40 KT
WITHIN MIXED LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FOUR ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THUS...PER COORDINATION WITH
APX HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALGER...DELTA...LUCE
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 09Z TONIGHT FOR
ALGER AND LUCE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER NORTH WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FOR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES HAVE
STARTED THE HEADLINE AT 12Z TUE. ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUE
EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES AT WHICH TIME PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORM OVER WRN
PA.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING FCST AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PCPN
ASSOC WITH EAST COAST STORM STAYS EAST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z TUE. BOTH
GFS AND NAM THEN INDICATE PCPN SPREADING SLOWLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS 850-800 FGEN FORCING INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPR DIVERGENCE OF
STRONG UPR JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO WRN QUEBEC. BOTH
GFS AND PARTICULARLY NAM SNDGS OVER ERN UPR MI WANT TO HOLD ONTO COLD
LAYER FROM SFC TO NEAR 3KFT THRU TUESDAY DESPITE WAA OCCURRING AT 850
MB ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING
THERE WON`T BE SOME MODERATION/WARMING OF NEAR SFC LYR DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY GIVEN COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND NRLY ONSHORE FLOW
OFF RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR (MID TO UPPER 40S TEMPS).
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS FAR EAST TAPERING TO LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC NEAR MQT
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHOW UP
OVER MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION BEING THE
RESULT.
THE RETROGRADING SFC LOW MOVING OVER W PA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N HUDSON BAY...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
DOWN THOUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
GOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE E COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
SWING IN FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MQT COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND W QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. THIS IS STILL THE 6TH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...SO WILL
NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH IT QUITE YET...AS THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY A FEW
SMALLER POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BETWEEN -0
TO -4C THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY ON N-NNW WINDS...BEFORE BRIEFLY FALLING
TO AROUND -8C OVER THE W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW
LINGERING ALOFT BEHIND THE THE NEXT 500MB LOW SWINGING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES FROM SATURDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NW FLOW OVERHEAD AT
12Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TO FAR E MN. THE
29/06Z GFS IS INITIALLY ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN THE 19/00Z ECMWF. THE
29/12Z REMAINS AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE 29/12Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. WILL HEDGE THE MID RANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU
MIDDAY TUESDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
HOWEVER... THE RIDGE WILL BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND INTENSE LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 513 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT
WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE... POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD
AROUND STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ006-007.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
232 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
STATES. ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IS IN THE PROCESS
OF PICKING UP SANDY OFF THE EAST COAST. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BTWN
THE TROF AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AND E OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE LWR LAKES.
SHARP W EDGE OF DENSE CI SHIELD LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER JET
AXIS AND IS VERY SLOWLY EDGING W TOWARD UPPER MI. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO E TX IS
RESULTING IN CLEAR/CALM/CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -5C PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING IS PREVENTING ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS
FROM DEVELOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM AS FCST AREA REMAINS
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOWEVER...
AS POWERFUL STORM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPANDS WESTWARD...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND W
AND CNTRL UPPER MI WILL BE NUDGED W. THIS WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING THICKENING CI SHIELD TO SPREAD
SLOWLY W ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER JET COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTWARD PUSH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT PCPN EXPANDING W
TOWARD UPPER MI TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...SO PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON TONIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...BY 12Z TUE...950MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 35-40KT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE WATER...WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTS OF 35-40MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO
MUNISING AND POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH EAST OF MUNISING. BEING IN THE
LOW PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH OTHER ENHANCEMENT FACTORS
MISSING...CAA/STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEPENING LOW (SYSTEM IS WEAKENING IN
THIS CASE)...DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO EXTEND MUCH BEYOND THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK REMAINS VERY TRICKY...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
PTYPE AND POPS...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...FOCUSED ATTENTION ON
PRECIP/WINDS/TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH WED AND USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS
THEREAFTER.
QUESTION FOR TUE/WED IS NOT IF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT
IS HOW FAR AND TO WHAT EXTENT OF DEPTH THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN ONLY SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER ERN UPPER MI...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASING OUTLIER AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL OF UPPER MI. WILL MAKE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE
PREFERRED MODELS STATED PREVIOUSLY.
EVEN WITH DEEP MOISTURE ONLY BEING DEPICTED OVER AND E OF ALGER AND
DELTA COUNTIES BY FAVORED MODELS...N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 750MB OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI.
SOUNDING SHOW THAT TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
NCENTRAL...BUT THE DGZ WILL BE HIGH AND DRY AT 500-600MB...SO
DRIZZLE IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH
AROUND 00Z WED. DRIZZLE WOULD END WED AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NWLY AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. OF
COURSE...EVEN WITH THE CRANKING N WIND...LOCATIONS A FEW MILES
INLAND SHOULD GET TO OR BELOW FREEZING...SO INCLUDED FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE SFC TEMPS FELL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DURING THIS TIME AS THE SHARP CUT OFF IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
E OF MARQUETTE...AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /12Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD ALREADY BY OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP MAKING SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO PUSH E ON WED AFTERNOON WHILE DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND AND NWLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 875MB
INVERSION TOP TEMPS AROUND -6C...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT NEAR AND E OF MUNISING. AS FAR AS PTYPE OVER
THE E...WITH THE DGZ BEING SATURATED AND TEMP PROFILES OVER ALL BUT
FAR ERN UPPER MI SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW...PTYPE WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT DECIDED BY NEAR SFC TEMPS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER SFC
TEMPS FALL LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SNOW APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
PTYPE FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH THE ERN CWA. COULD SEE AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS OVER NE UPPER MI AWAY FROM
WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS...RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...HIGH DGZ AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW /PROBABLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AS SFC TEMPS INCREASE ON WED/ WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING
UNTIL DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM W TO E LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS CHANGES IN LOCATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMP PROFILES WILL LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN
PTYPE.
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE NOW
MORE FAVORED SCENARIO. THE CHANGES ARE BIGGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL
WHERE SNOW WAS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH NOW HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU
MIDDAY TUESDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
HOWEVER... THE RIDGE WILL BE DRIFTING W...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND INTENSE LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S THRU CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT W
AND BE LOCATED JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WED AND THU. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD AROUND STORM
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED. GUSTS OF 40-45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
615 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AS OF 21Z WITH
SIGHTS ON SOUTHERN PA LATER TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON TUESDAY...THEN
LIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATL LOOP SHOWING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY
ONLY ARND 30 OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ALREADY FALLING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA AS THE DEEP...MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LATEST RECON INDICATES THAT
THE DEEPENING HAS LEVELED OFF AT 940MB. ALL MDL DATA CONTINUES TO
TRACK THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PA OVERNIGHT.
PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHERN NJ THROUGH SERN PA AND
INDICATIONS ARE THE STORM IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE...BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 30-40 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE. WITH GROUNDS BECOMING VERY
SATURATED...WE ARE ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF TREES BEGINNING TO
BE UPROOTED AS SOILS LOOSEN AND WINDS INCREASE. MDL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS REMNANTS OF SANDY PASS DIRECTLY OVR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT GUSTS LATER TUE AM BTWN 40-50
MPH...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST BEHIND THE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH
WE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AFTER
2AM...WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING GOING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND ASSOC SUSCEPTIBILITY OF TREES TO TOPPLE.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO EASTERN PA AT
22Z AND LATEST NAMPARA AND RAP INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. STILL...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALL MDL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN PA...WHERE TOTALS BY TUES NIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 3-6
INCH RANGE. ACROSS NORTHERN PA...ENSEMBLE AND OPER RUNS BOTH
INDICATE TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE.
WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
LAURELS...WHERE WEB CAMS ALREADY SHOWING A LIGHT ACCUM AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER AIR
ACCOMPANYING APPROACH OF SANDY WILL CHANGE ANY SNOW BACK TO RAIN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD GO BACK TO
SNOW ON TUESDAY...AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE FILLING LOW.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL RATES DECREASING
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF GRADUALLY FILLING...POST-TROPICAL STORM
SANDY WILL BE DRIFTING RIGHT THRU CENTRAL PA.. RISING PRESSURE IN
THE CORE WILL SIGNAL THE STORM BEGINNING TO UNWIND...DIMINISHING
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL RELATIVELY STRONG WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS - DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. WE COULD ALSO SEE THE AREA OF WET SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN EXPAND AS COLD AIR GETS RAPIDLY DRAWN INTO
THE CIRCULATION OF THE BY-THEN FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE THE SNOW ACCUMULATE...BUT
SOME GRASSY HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE A SLUSHY COATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT REMNANTS OF SANDY SPIN OVER
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NWD INTO NRN
NY STATE BY FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SANDY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDS ON WED...WITH PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A TYPICAL...DEEPENING
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...PSBLY
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS...RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THIS WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD THE NJ COAST...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION TO THEN MOVE OVER SRN PA OVERNIGHT. THE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
AND THE RAIN WILL LIMIT VISBYS EVEN WHERE THE CIGS ARE AOA 1KFT.
BUT THE BIGGEST TROUBLE IS THE WIND. THE NRLY WINDS WILL BE
RIPPING ALONG JUST ALOFT AND MIX DOWN 50KT GUSTS AT MANY TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL EVENING LONG. AS THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION NEARS AND IT PASSES FROM E-W ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE
STATE TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BACK A LITTLE AT FIRST...THEN VEER
TO THE NE/E LATER TONIGHT. THEY WILL ALSO SLACKEN AS THE STORM
BEGINS TO FILL...FRICTION INCREASES AND GRADIENT RELAXES. WIND
SHEAR IS A CONCERN AT FIRST...WITH MAINLY DIRECTIONAL CHANGES. BUT
MECHANICAL MIXING AND THE ASSOCD GUSTS WILL BE JUST AS STRONG AS
THE TOP OF THE LLWS LAYER/2KFT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
LLWS...BUT THE FCSTS OF 40-50KT GUSTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH BY
THEMSELVES.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE SWRN PART OF THE
STATE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD/18Z TUES. THUS...THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER A BIT MORE. THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH
ONLY SLOWLY TUES AND EARLY WED. RAIN AND FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES...WITH IMPROVEMENT TUES NIGHT AND
WED. SOME SN MAY MIX IN TONIGHT VCNTY JST...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT - AS THE ELEVATION AT THE TERMINAL MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE
FOR KBFD/KJST TUES NIGHT AS COLD AIR WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE
STORM AND DROPS THE FZG LEVEL DOWN TO LESS THAN 2KFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...BREEZY. MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...MVFR
CENTRAL AND EAST.
FRI...MVFR -RA/SN SHOWERS WEST...BCMG VFR EAST.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM HUDSON BAY...ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE SANDY HAS MADE THE
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OVER FAR EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL OHIO. AS SANDY MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS CIRRUS WELL AS IT STANDS
CURRENTLY...SO WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. DELTA T/S OF 13C
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS AT 925-900MB OF 40-45 KTS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER DOOR COUNTY...AND TIMING OF THE START
OF THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AT 06Z. LOOKED AT POSSIBLY EXPANDING
THE ADVISORY OVER THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...BUT
TRAJECTORIES ARE TOO NNW FOR MY LIKING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER BL WINDS.
TUESDAY...SANDY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST BUT CIRRUS
SHOULD COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEFT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE IN CASE THE DRY
AIR HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE MODELS SHOW. MAX WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (UP TO AROUND 900MB) WILL STAY RELATIVELY
STEADY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AT 30 KTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO 40-45 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. TAKING 80 PCT OF
THESE VALUES YIELDS WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND 35 KTS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. DOOR COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KTS. EVEN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER...SO WILL KEEP
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
EXIT OF "SANDY" WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SANDY TO CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS
NORTH THROUGH PA DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SLOWLY TUE NIGHT AND WED. CIRRUS SHIELD TO PULL EAST
WED MORNING...GIVEN WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR THE TUE NIGHT PERIOD. CONTINUED ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER THE FAR EAST...AS DEEPER MOISTURE STILL RATHER SPARSE
ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
DRIER/LOWER DEW POINTS RETURN LATER WED...WITH WIND BACKING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT CENTRAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
MANY QUESTIONS LINGER IN THE LATER PERIODS AS PATTERN EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE. EC STRONGER WITH SHORT WAVE EXITING GULF
OF AK AND DROPPING INTO WI UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE THU
TIME FRAME WHILE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH...LIKEWISE WITH SYSTEM LATER PART OF WEAK GFS FURTHER NORTH
WITH SYSTEM...MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN FOR AREA. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE GOING FOR A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS GOING WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE GOOD FLYING
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF SANDY WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WINDS WILL ONLY GET STRONGER
ON TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE FROM THE FOX VALLEY
ON EAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR OVER DOOR
COUNTY ON TUESDAY.
MPC
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT. AGREE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THOUGHTS THAT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DOOR
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUST BUT COVERAGE/FREQUENCY WILL NOT
BE THERE TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE. NNW WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STRONGER NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORELINE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ022.
&&
$$
MPC/TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TROUGH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PHASE
PROCESS WITH SANDY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SANDY
TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORELINE BY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
TROUGHS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH WISCONSIN...AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS IN THE
CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.
29.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 28.21Z SREF ALL IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. A COUPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. A FEW MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TROUGH COULD SKIRT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURE
PRETTY STATIC TODAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 3-5C RANGE WITH SOME
MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 4-8C RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING SOME INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
AGAIN IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEEN READING IN THE CRANBERRY COUNTRY
AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED A BIT MORE FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE NORTHWEST WIND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT WITH REMNANTS OF SANDY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWING REMNANTS OF SANDY FILLING AND MOVING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING
FOR OUR AREA. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE SFC-700MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL GET PUSHED SLOWLY WEST THRU TONIGHT/TUE AS
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY MOVE INTO WESTERN PA. THE CIRCULATION AROUND
SANDY WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10-15KTS TUE.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCT-BKN080-120 CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
OTHERWISE A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS GOING TO CONTINUE PROVIDING THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU TUE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS