Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/24/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1035 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
THE PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING AROUND POCATELLO ID AT 16 UTC IS TIED
TO A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WE EXPECT TO
AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UTILIZING SOME
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS MOISTURE INTO LIVINGSTON BY AROUND
19 UTC...WHICH PROVIDES STRONG CREDENCE TO THE 12 UTC NAM...GFS...
AND HRRR GUIDANCE. THOSE SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW A RATHER ROBUST SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION FROM GARDINER AND COOKE CITY UP TO LIVINGSTON AND
HARLOWTON BETWEEN 18 AND 03 UTC THANKS TO FORCING FROM THE 700- TO
500-HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WE DID
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS BASED
ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS. MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MODEST DRYING WITH THE SHORT WAVE...AND WE HAVE
EVEN NOTED SOME LIGHTNING WITH THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA
THIS MORNING...SO IT/S DYNAMICALLY-ROBUST IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WE ARE THUS CALLING FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD ACTUALLY CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO RISE
TO 8500 FT MSL AROUND COOKE CITY IF THE 12 UTC NAM IS CORRECT.
WE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR BILLINGS AND CHANCE-STYLE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 700-HPA WARM
AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP. BILLINGS COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BATCH
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CITY IF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT...SO WE FELT COMFORTABLE KEEPING POPS THERE AT 60 PERCENT.
SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND BUT
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A LARGE TROUGH CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WITH A STRONG JET WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO COLORADO. AS A
RESULT...BOTH THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE WHERE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
AND ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS TO
ROUNDUP LINE AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. EAST OF THIS
LINE A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST AND...AS A RESULT...HAVE
LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
SOME STREAMLINE VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NO STRONG FORCING SHOWING UP AT THIS TIME. DYNAMICS WILL WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
WEATHER SYSTEMS TOO WELL OUT PAST 2 OR 3 DAYS LATELY SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS ALL ROUTES INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/052 029/038 023/031 019/032 020/038 025/046
6/W 42/W 44/O 32/J 22/J 22/J 22/W
LVM 044 031/048 024/036 017/032 011/031 014/039 026/046
8/R 43/W 44/S 43/J 33/J 32/J 22/W
HDN 052 037/057 030/041 025/033 018/035 019/041 018/045
4/W 42/W 34/R 32/J 22/J 22/J 22/W
MLS 053 036/055 029/040 023/034 019/034 017/036 016/040
4/W 52/W 34/O 21/B 22/J 22/J 22/W
4BQ 054 036/059 030/039 025/036 018/033 019/036 018/040
4/W 52/W 34/O 31/B 22/J 22/J 12/W
BHK 047 033/058 030/039 024/035 019/033 019/035 018/040
4/W 52/W 34/R 21/B 22/J 22/J 22/W
SHR 052 035/056 031/039 024/033 019/033 020/040 018/043
4/W 42/W 34/R 43/J 33/J 22/J 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
117 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS STRATUS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE AND
MODEL TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DRIZZLE WORDING TO WIDESPREAD ON
THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA AND EVEN ADDED SOME SHOWERS WITH
CONVECTIVE TYPE CELLS DEVELOPING ON RADAR AND CAN BE IDENTIFIED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DIMINISH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RETURN
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE LOWER SUN ANGLE DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE ITS HELPING ANYTHING TOWARD GETTING CLEARING INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASE SKY COVER AND CONTINUED THIS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS...ESPECIALLY WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. WE WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
CONTINUED GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST...AS THE
TERMINAL WILL BE NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY DOWN IN
KANSAS. DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...BUT ENSEMBLES
INDICATE FOG SETTLING IN AND LOWERING STRATUS AFTER A TEMPORARILY
MODEST RAISING OF CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
WILL BE AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF
THE NEXT 72 HOURS LIKELY REMAINING VOID OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
CHANCES...THERE ARE NONETHELESS A PLETHORA OF TRICKY
CHALLENGES...INCLUDING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER JUST TO
NAME A FEW. THE FINAL 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE
WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE SHARPLY COOLER
CHANGES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1003MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
KS...WITH A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED AND VERY SLOW MOVING/SOME
PLACES NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT DRAPED BEHIND THIS LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST KS INTO WEST CENTRAL IA...AND BARELY CUTTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM HEBRON-BELOIT. TO THE NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...FAIRLY STEADY NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS HAVE PREVAILED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES ARE THE NORM WITH QUITE A POOLING
OF DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S EVIDENT AT AUTOMATED
STATIONS SUCH AS HEBRON/BELOIT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE LATEST OBS
ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG IN THESE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS INDICATED QUITE AN EXPLOSION OF LOW STRATUS GENERALLY
AROUND 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THIS EXPANDING CLOUD
SHIELD NOW BLANKETING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND EXPANDING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. PRECIP-WISE...A FAIRLY ORGANIZED LINE/CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GOT UNDERWAY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND IS NOW STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IA/NORTHERN MO...WITH NO HINT OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A FAIRLY BUSY SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS ONE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB AREA
AND HELPING SPARK THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE EAST...WHILE OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS CRUISING TOWARD THE
TX PANHANDLE OUT OF NM. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MORE ORGANIZED
LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PLANTED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED 500MB LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST.
FOR TODAY...THE MOST NOTICEABLE FORECAST CHANGES WERE TO SKY COVER
AND RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...ANY SEMBLANCE OF A
PARTLY CLOUDY LET ALONE MOSTLY SUNNY PERIOD TODAY HAS BEEN
STRIPPED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...AND REPLACED WITH
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS PESSIMISTIC CHANGE IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z/06Z NAM...WHICH DEPICTS THE LARGE AND EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS REMAINING FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY LONG...WITH MAYBE SOME HOPE FOR SOME MID-LATE
AFTERNOON CLEARING PRIMARILY ONLY FOR A HANDFUL OF FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL
KS LOW IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT A BIT DURING THE DAY AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA BORDER AREA...WITH THE
STRATUS TRAPPED WITHIN THE WEAKENING FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. ALOFT...THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LIFT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING WITH THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUES...HAVE
AREAS OF FOG WITH LESS THAN 1 MILE VSBY WORDING GOING ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 15Z...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A FORMAL
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED GIVEN THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE CONFINED TO JUST ONE COUNTY...MITCHELL KS. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES...AFTER SOME DEBATE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND STRIP OUT STORM WORDING POST-12Z FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DESPITE THAT THE 03Z SREF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A
MORNING FLARE-UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. HOWEVER...SEVERAL SHORT TERM HIGH RES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/HRRR AND 4M WRF-NMM ARE
RATHER INSISTENT THAT LACK OF FORCING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LEAD
SHORTWAVE...PARTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALREADY
AIMED WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WILL KEEP ANY ACTUAL
CONVECTION AT BAY ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...HAVE OPTED TO CARRY A
TOKEN PATCHY DRIZZLE WORDING THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...JUST IN CASE A FEW POCKETS OF DRIZZLE CAN
BE SQUEEZED OUT...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED WOULD SEEM A
BIT MARGINAL FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION MIGHT NEED EXTENDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE
MORNING PLAYS OUT. HIGH TEMP WISE...LOWERED 3-6 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST IN MOST AREAS...BUT VERY POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. FOR
NOW WILL RUN WITH NEAR 60 NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...WHICH FOR
SOME AREAS IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FORECAST FROM 24
HOURS AGO. STILL...IF THIS STRATUS HOLDS FIRM DAY SHIFT MAY VERY
WELL HAVE TO MAKE AN EVEN MORE DRASTIC DOWNTURN AND KEEP MANY
AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S.
TONIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT
THE BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS WILL VACATE/ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT 850MB. TIME WILL TELL WHETHER
THIS CLEARING IS AS RAPID AS ADVERTISED. ANOTHER CONSISTENT
MODEL/GUIDANCE SIGNAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT HAS BEEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY
POTENTIAL TO AROUND 1 MILE OR LOWER. IN GENERAL...MODELS SUCH AS
THE SREF FAVOR THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR THE GREATEST FOG
COVERAGE. PREVIOUS SHIFT INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG THOUGH CWA-
WIDE...AND AM NOT ABOUT TO GET CUTE AND TAKE ANY AREAS OUT GIVEN
THE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED. CAN/T SAY YET
WHETHER SOME AREAS MAY NEED A DENSE FOG HEADLINE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE HWO. CHANGED LOW TEMPS
LITTLE PER MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH CONSALL...RESULTING IN
MID 40S WEST TO LOW 50S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...THIS IS STILL LOOKING HANDS DOWN LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...ASSUMING THAT SKIES CLEAR EFFICIENTLY IN THE WAKE OF
ANY POTENTIAL MORNING STRATUS/FOG. ALOFT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST...AS THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS
WELL NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PER A BLEND OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE/MODELS...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S MOST FAVORED
IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT ANY FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN EARMARK THE
EASTERN/NORTHEAST CWA FOR POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND
THERE COULD ALSO BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW STRATUS INTO MUCH OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RAMPS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
KEPT LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS AND GENERALLY 2-3 ABOVE
GUIDANCE BLEND...RANGING MID 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
WEDNESDAY...KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CWA
WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE VICINITY OF A RATHER SHARP INVADING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING THAT SOME STORMS MIGHT ATTEMPT
FORMING NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
DISCOUNT FOR NOW. THE BIG STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE INVADING
FRONT...AS NORTHERLY WINDS KICK INTO ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SPEEDS WERE RAISED 5-10 MPH FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS CONTINUES TO BE
A NIGHTMARE...AS THERE COULD EASILY BE A 25+ DEGREE HIGH TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE CURRENT GENERAL EXPECTATION.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT LOCKED INTO STEP COMPLETELY YET...AND
ADJUSTMENTS OF 10+ DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT LEAST FOR NOW THOUGH...LOWERED MOST OF THE
CWA A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY RAISED THE
SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...DO NOT TAKE TOO LITERALLY...BUT AM AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM LOW 60S NORTHWEST...MID 60S TO LOW 70S TRI-CITIES AREA
AND LOW-MID 80S FAR SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEARLY THIS IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST
LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP...AS THE CWA COMES UNDER INCREASING
FORCING/JET DYNAMICS AND RESULTANT MID LEVEL SATURATION AS THE
LEADING EDGES OF A FAIRLY POTENT OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. KEPT AT LEAST 20 POPS NEARLY ALL AREAS...BUT
NUDGED SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80 INTO 40 PERCENT RANGE. MAIN CHANGE
WAS TO INTRODUCE THUNDER MENTION FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. THIS THUNDER MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY NEED PUT ALL
AREAS...BUT WITH THE NAM DEPICTING AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE
PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES FIGURED THIS WAS A START FROM THE
PRIOR NON-THUNDER FORECAST. SUPPOSE SOME SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. DESPITE
SOME COLD AIR ALOFT EDGING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AM EXPECTING ALL PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID WITH ANY POSSIBLE
NOW WELL OFF INTO WESTERN NEB.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND A COUPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS AS A COOL AIRMASS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEHIND WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
FOR POTENTIALLY A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT SCOPE OF THE FORECAST.
IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT KEEPING A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. WHILE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT APPEAR
GREAT AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...PRECIP CHANCES BECOME A BIT MORE
DICEY...AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ON FRIDAY AND TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A MIX OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP. WITH LATEST EC BACKING OFF ON
POPS COMPLETELY FOR FRIDAY...DECIDED TO REDUCE ALLBLEND POPS DOWN A
BIT...WITHOUT REMOVING...AS BOTH EC AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT...AND LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S EACH MORNING. AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THOSE DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S EITHER DAY...WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S MIXED IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ARE EVENTUALLY REALIZED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
FROM LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DELIVERS DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THU AND FRI. A BRIEF WARM UP
MAY OCCUR SAT BEFORE WET AND WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLY MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY MODIFY OUR SKY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH INDICATE
SOME HIGH BASED SC IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY PATCHY AND THIN SO EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
====================================================================
WV IMG COMBINED WITH CURRENT RAP DATA SUGGESTS SHEARED VORT MAX IS
JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS WAVE AN H85 LLJ OF ABOUT 40 KT AND STRONG
CAA FROM AN EXITING CUTOFF HAVE GENERATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF SC
OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT A 5-12KT WIND. GIVEN THIS FACT...MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS/DWPTS AND ARE GENERALLY TOO LOW ACROSS THE
BOARD. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER BC GRIDS FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND THE HIGHS TODAY. THIS LED TO
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
GENERALLY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK SFC WAVE TO
TIGHTEN THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER FROM THE SW. WHILE THE LLJ IS 40+ KT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LACKING DIURNAL MIXING AND
A FAIRLY ROBUST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP BL FROM TAPPING
THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER...SHOULD STILL SEE A BIT STRONGER W TO NW
GUSTS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THINGS SEEM A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE REGION AS WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES
IN BEHIND THE EXITING VORT MAX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND MIN TEMPS COOLER THAN SUN NIGHT. UPPER 30S NW WITH
LOWER 40S TOWARD THE SE.
TUE...
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SW AS A SLOWING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. NOT EXPECTING THE FRONT ITSELF TO MAKE IT
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS IT ENCOUNTERS BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN TO THE
NE AND BECOMES PARALLEL WITH MID AND UPPER LVL FLOW.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE
COLUMN AND GIVEN SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING FLOW AND F-GEN...MAY SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE DAY...PARTICULARLY TO
THE W AND S. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...AS SOUNDINGS TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND LOW LVL COOL
AIR SHOULD KEEP WARM FRONT AT BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NGT...OTHERWISE DRY WX
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* RAIN AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NXT WK
TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
00Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS PRECLUDES WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLC REGION FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM AIR DOES MAKES A RUN AT NEW ENGLAND TUE
NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION. THUS A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
DESPITE LIKELY POPS FROM THE GMOS...WE PREFERRED TO CAP POPS AT HIGH
CHANCE GIVEN QPF APPEARS LIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT DRY AIR
OVER THE AREA TO ERODE SOME OF THE PRECIP. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...ESP IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPING BLOCK PATTERN THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND THU INTO
FRI. THUS SHALLOW COOL AIR SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER THIS STILL YIELDS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. IN FACT IT WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE OCT WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
SAT/SUN...
A PIECE OF THE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY MAY
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRI OR SAT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY SLIDES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE DRY WEATHER FROM FRI INTO
SAT. THEREAFTER THE DRAMA BUILDS AS TELECONNECTIONS/ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ALL SUPPORT A PATTERN/FLOW REGIME CHANGE AS
THE NAO AND AO BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO INCREASE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN CHANGE
IS THE LIKELIHOOD /TPC EST 80% CHC OF DVLPMNT/ OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
/TS SANDY/ EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OF THE U.S. THE ECMWF/ECENS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET
HAVE A PHASED SOLUTION...WITH THE AMPLIFIED POLAR JET CAPTURING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FORMING A HYBRID SYSTEM
INTO THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST SUN/MON.
THE NEW GFS OFFERS AN UNPHASED SOLUTION...HAVING THE POLAR JET
KICKING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OUT TO SEA WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE FOR THE
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME RANGE WE MUST EXPECT THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN PHASED AND UNPHASED SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
POLAR JET /ITS AMPLITUDE AND TILT/ AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY COMPLEX AND OFFERS LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE. THUS
MODELS WILL UNLIKELY RESOLVE THESE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS UNTIL
SOMETIME FRI OR SAT. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUN TO ADDRESS
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND INCLUDE SOME WORDING IN THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT A
LOW RISK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS WITH HYBRID LOW
ALONG OR NEAR THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN TUE
NGT THRU WED NGT. LOW RISK OF IFR DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THU AND FRI...LIKELY TO VFR BUT CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W TO NW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT OVER ALL WATERS.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STAND INTO THE EVENING FOR NEAR
SHORE WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS OF
5-6 FT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO DIMINISH ON THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO SUBSIDE AND QUIET BOATING WX TO RETURN.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT THRU WED
NGT YIELDING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND REDUCED VSBY. HOWEVER WARM
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THU AND FRI WITH HIGH PRES
REINSERTING ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND OR
SEAS THIS PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
235>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
409 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
FROM LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DELIVERS DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THU AND FRI. A BRIEF WARM UP
MAY OCCUR SAT BEFORE WET AND WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLY MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV IMG COMBINED WITH CURRENT RAP DATA SUGGESTS SHEARED VORT MAX IS
JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS WAVE AN H85 LLJ OF ABOUT 40 KT AND STRONG
CAA FROM AN EXITING CUTOFF HAVE GENERATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF SC
OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT A 5-12KT WIND. GIVEN THIS FACT...MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS/DWPTS AND ARE GENERALLY TOO LOW ACROSS THE
BOARD. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER BC GRIDS FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND THE HIGHS TODAY. THIS LED TO
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
GENERALLY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK SFC WAVE TO
TIGHTEN THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER FROM THE SW. WHILE THE LLJ IS 40+ KT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LACKING DIURNAL MIXING AND
A FAIRLY ROBUST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP BL FROM TAPPING
THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER...SHOULD STILL SEE A BIT STRONGER W TO NW
GUSTS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THINGS SEEM A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE REGION AS WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES
IN BEHIND THE EXITING VORT MAX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND MIN TEMPS COOLER THAN SUN NIGHT. UPPER 30S NW WITH
LOWER 40S TOWARD THE SE.
TUE...
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SW AS A SLOWING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. NOT EXPECTING THE FRONT ITSELF TO MAKE IT
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS IT ENCOUNTERS BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN TO THE
NE AND BECOMES PARALLEL WITH MID AND UPPER LVL FLOW.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE
COLUMN AND GIVEN SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING FLOW AND F-GEN...MAY SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE DAY...PARTICULARLY TO
THE W AND S. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...AS SOUNDINGS TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND LOW LVL COOL
AIR SHOULD KEEP WARM FRONT AT BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NGT...OTHERWISE DRY WX
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* RAIN AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NXT WK
TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
00Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS PRECLUDES WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLC REGION FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM AIR DOES MAKES A RUN AT NEW ENGLAND TUE
NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION. THUS A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
DESPITE LIKELY POPS FROM THE GMOS...WE PREFERRED TO CAP POPS AT HIGH
CHANCE GIVEN QPF APPEARS LIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT DRY AIR
OVER THE AREA TO ERODE SOME OF THE PRECIP. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...ESP IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPING BLOCK PATTERN THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND THU INTO
FRI. THUS SHALLOW COOL AIR SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER THIS STILL YIELDS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. IN FACT IT WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE OCT WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
SAT/SUN...
A PIECE OF THE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY MAY
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRI OR SAT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY SLIDES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE DRY WEATHER FROM FRI INTO
SAT. THEREAFTER THE DRAMA BUILDS AS TELECONNECTIONS/ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ALL SUPPORT A PATTERN/FLOW REGIME CHANGE AS
THE NAO AND AO BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO INCREASE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN CHANGE
IS THE LIKELIHOOD /TPC EST 80% CHC OF DVLPMNT/ OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
/TS SANDY/ EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OF THE U.S. THE ECMWF/ECENS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET
HAVE A PHASED SOLUTION...WITH THE AMPLIFIED POLAR JET CAPTURING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FORMING A HYBRID SYSTEM
INTO THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST SUN/MON.
THE NEW GFS OFFERS AN UNPHASED SOLUTION...HAVING THE POLAR JET
KICKING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OUT TO SEA WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE FOR THE
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME RANGE WE MUST EXPECT THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN PHASED AND UNPHASED SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
POLAR JET /ITS AMPLITUDE AND TILT/ AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY COMPLEX AND OFFERS LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE. THUS
MODELS WILL UNLIKELY RESOLVE THESE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS UNTIL
SOMETIME FRI OR SAT. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUN TO ADDRESS
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND INCLUDE SOME WORDING IN THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT A
LOW RISK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS WITH HYBRID LOW
ALONG OR NEAR THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN TUE
NGT THRU WED NGT. LOW RISK OF IFR DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THU AND FRI...LIKELY TO VFR BUT CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W TO NW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT OVER ALL WATERS.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STAND INTO THE EVENING FOR NEAR
SHORE WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS OF
5-6 FT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO DIMINISH ON THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO SUBSIDE AND QUIET BOATING WX TO RETURN.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT THRU WED
NGT YIELDING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND REDUCED VSBY. HOWEVER WARM
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THU AND FRI WITH HIGH PRES
REINSERTING ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND OR
SEAS THIS PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER MAY
BRIEFLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV IMG COMBINED WITH CURRENT RAP DATA SUGGESTS SHEARED VORT MAX IS
JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS WAVE AN H85 LLJ OF ABOUT 40 KT AND STRONG
CAA FROM AN EXITING CUTOFF HAVE GENERATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF SC
OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT A 5-12KT WIND. GIVEN THIS FACT...MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS/DWPTS AND ARE GENERALLY TOO LOW ACROSS THE
BOARD. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER BC GRIDS FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND THE HIGHS TODAY. THIS LED TO
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
GENERALLY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK SFC WAVE TO
TIGHTEN THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER FROM THE SW. WHILE THE LLJ IS 40+ KT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LACKING DIURNAL MIXING AND
A FAIRLY ROBUST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP BL FROM TAPPING
THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER...SHOULD STILL SEE A BIT STRONGER W TO NW
GUSTS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THINGS SEEM A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE REGION AS WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES
IN BEHIND THE EXITING VORT MAX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND MIN TEMPS COOLER THAN SUN NIGHT. UPPER 30S NW WITH
LOWER 40S TOWARD THE SE.
TUE...
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SW AS A SLOWING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. NOT EXPECTING THE FRONT ITSELF TO MAKE IT
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS IT ENCOUNTERS BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN TO THE
NE AND BECOMES PARALLEL WITH MID AND UPPER LVL FLOW.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE
COLUMN AND GIVEN SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING FLOW AND F-GEN...MAY SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE DAY...PARTICULARLY TO
THE W AND S. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...AS SOUNDINGS TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND LOW LVL COOL
AIR SHOULD KEEP WARM FRONT AT BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRI AND SAT
* ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WE GET LATE INTO THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR. A WEAK WARM FRONT
MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. TIMING DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/S WEATHER. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TUE NIGHT AND WED...THEN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING TOWARDS
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT WOULD LIKELY BRING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THERE
IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT
IS A WEEK OR MORE OUT IN THE FUTURE...BUT IT WILL WARRANT WATCHING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. W TO NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W TO NW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT OVER ALL WATERS.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STAND INTO THE EVENING FOR NEAR
SHORE WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS OF
5-6 FT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO DIMINISH ON THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO SUBSIDE AND QUIET BOATING WX TO RETURN.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
607 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...AT 6 PM CDT...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL EXIT THE STATE
THIS TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT RADAR STILL SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST. THE RUC MODEL STABILITY FORECAST INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE VERY LIMITED...
JUST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. SO CUT BACK IN THUNDERSTORM MENTION. LOWERED
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...AT 6 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WERE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. FOR THE 00Z TAF...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST
WITH THE FRONT...IMPACTING KBIS/KJMS/KMOT EARLY TONIGHT. VFR AT
KISN/KDIK. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS BY 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
331 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND STREAMING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. A LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE...AND WITH
SEVERAL JET STREAKS/SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND AND EJECTING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH...SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL DOMINATE
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA/SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE VIA A
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WELL. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS/LIKELY CATEGORY WILL RESIDE IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE AND STRONGEST ASCENT. THE
RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW WARM LAYER OF AROUND OR LESS
THAN 1500FT EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES THAT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY IN THE WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL THAT BEACH ALREADY HAD A MIX AND PROBABLY EXPERIENCED A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH A TEMPERATURE AT 34F. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH
AND WEST...TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY SLIDING INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT OVER OREGON AND IDAHO. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INDUCING A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW...H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY BUT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 60F AND 65F SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
REMAIN RATHER COOL IN THE NORTH WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES IN EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEEK AND SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE COLD FRONT DEPARTING EAST OF
STATE WITH A BAND OF PRECIP NUDGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. COOLER
TEMPS ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW POPS CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST PUSHES COLDER AIR ACROSS REGION. BY 00Z THU 850MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM 2C SOUTHEAST TO -6 NORTHWEST DROPPING TO AROUND -8C TO
-10C BY 00Z SAT. ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE MORE PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT COMPARED TO GFS AND GRIDS SHOW UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
REMAINS COLD AND MOSTLY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ROTATES
TOWARD HUDSON BAY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF NORTH
AMERICA. HIGH TEMPS FROM THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN
TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING KDIK WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET AT 08Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
KDIK AND KISN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A MIX WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER
TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...LOWER CIGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
958 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
WARM...AND MOSTLY DRY STRETCH GOING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
01Z RUC DEPICTS 500 MB VORT NEAR LEX. WILL GO FURTHER SOUTH ON SOME
20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
FALLING FROM MID DECK...SO IT MAY END UP JUST BEING NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES. THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW
THAT MID DECK. LAST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EXITING CKB TO EKN
VCNTY DURING THE 12Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSISTENCY AMOUNT MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SUGGEST DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMP GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN HOOVERING AROUND THE SAME NUMBERS...WITH
WARM AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS UNDER WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ABOUT 40 KNOTS AT
H50...WHEN COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DUELING MODELS CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM...WITH GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. WITH THAT SAID...THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND NOW
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER. THE
12Z GFS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MOVING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIP ON SUNDAY.
THE 00Z EC HOWEVER KEEPS FRONTAL PRECIP AROUND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST WEST OF CWA IN RESPONSE TO WHAT IS NOW
TROPICAL STORM SANDY MOVING UP THE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BECOME EVEN LARGER RIGHT AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS
SLIDES A SURFACE HIGH INTO THE CWA WITH SANDY HEADED OUT TO
SEA...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WESTWARD...OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE WRAPPING PRECIP BACK INTO CWA. ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS
SHOWS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS WITHIN EACH MODEL THAT LEAN TOWARDS TO EACH
SOLUTION MENTIONED ABOVE...SO LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THEN DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF AREA WITH PATCHY CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH WITH MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE 06Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5 TO 8 THSD FT BROKEN ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. ONLY A POSSIBLE LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE EXPECTED.
SOME LOCAL MVFR...ISOLATED IFR...CONDITIONS...IN VALLEY FOG ALONG
THE COOLER AND SHELTERED WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...INCLUDING EKN
VCNTY...04Z TO 12Z WED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO INCREASE MVFR IN VALLEY
FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/24/12
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR MAY DEVELOP IN RAIN SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONT...OR LOWER
CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE...ON SATURDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO YOUNG...JACK AND STEPHENS COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. THE CAPPING
INVERSION EVIDENT ON BOTH THE FWD AND OUN SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LIFTS ENE...ALLOWING
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN THE 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. IN FACT WE JUST GOT A REPORT OF
PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE TOWN OF LOVING IN YOUNG COUNTY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN A DECENT POSSIBILITY AS
THE COMPLEX MIGRATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER
REGION...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL DATA STILL KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY
NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...BUT A FEW STORMS
WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO ME ADJUSTED DOWN A TAD OVER THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE
70S. OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED. A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS HOWEVER
IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY ONGOING FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE. WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT WITH THE THINKING THAT THEY WILL
MAINLY BE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. TIMING ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE 18-21Z IN THE METROPLEX IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER
THIS FAR EAST. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL
PERSIST. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
DUNN
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. LATEST HIGH RES HRRR MODEL AND
NAM12 RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE WEST TX
STORMS THIS MORNING. THE TECH AND NCEP WRF MODELS PICK UP SOME OF
IT...BUT ARE TOO WEAK AS THE SHORTWAVE HAS IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING.
12Z FWD SOUNDING DOES SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHENED
ONCE AGAIN WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SO THE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO BRING RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE
LINE THE SAME FOR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...DID RAISE POPS ACROSS
THOSE AREAS WHERE THE CAP IS LIFTING AND MOISTENING TO HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO STRENGTH OF ASCENT
AND EXPECTED INSTABILITY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN MOVING PROGRESSIVELY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE IN PROGRESS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN BACK INTO THE TRANS PECOS
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AFFECT FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
MID-LATE MORNING. ASCENT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS. MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF A
SHERMAN...DFW...COMANCHE LINE WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
A TIGHT GRADIENT ON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FAR NORTHWEST AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER SYSTEM TRACK.
WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER...INSTABILITY WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH
INSOLATION AND HEATING THESE AREAS CAN ACHIEVE BEFORE THE BEST
LIFT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP HAS LIFTED AND MOISTENED
SOMEWHAT THE PAST 24 HOURS ON THE LATEST FWD SOUNDING. DO FEEL THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY CAPPED PER THE TRACK OF
THIS SHORTWAVE. IF STRATUS CAN STAY OUT OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...
THEN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
WESTERLY BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS INDICATE A MULTI- CELL SCENARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS
AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL. THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT EXIT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. OTHERWISE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE THE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
15-25 MPH.
A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP ENERGY ALOFT ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE ROTATING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL ASSIST IN MOVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT OF THE FRONT
CROSSING THE RED RIVER AND MOVING TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEND TO ISOLATED-
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY
AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO NOT INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS IT PROGRESSES QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
BRISK AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG CAA NOTED IN ALL THE MODELS. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. FORCING
ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOWS BY SATURDAY
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...CONTINUING CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY CREEPING INTO THE 50S
MOST AREAS.
CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS NORTH-WEST OF DFW FALLING INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER-MID 40S ELSEWHERE. NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...BUT CONTINUING COOL WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL
CANADIAN AIR BEING SUPPORTED BY CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK LIKELY BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING AND COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES PER CONTINUED CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 70 85 68 86 / 30 10 5 0 0
WACO, TX 87 69 86 65 86 / 10 5 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 85 65 84 64 84 / 40 30 5 0 0
DENTON, TX 84 68 84 66 86 / 40 10 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 84 67 84 65 85 / 40 20 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 86 71 85 68 86 / 20 10 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 86 68 84 66 85 / 10 10 5 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 86 68 85 66 85 / 10 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 87 68 85 64 86 / 10 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 84 65 84 62 85 / 40 10 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
953 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE WEATHER THIS MORNING ARE THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE...AND WINDS WHICH HAVE
ALREADY STARTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE OVER LAND. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...COMBINED WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCING INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION OF TEXAS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH WILL HAVE
ITS RIGHT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTH TEXAS PUTTING US IN AN
INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT AND WEAKLY INCREASING MID
GULF RIDGING...AS THE JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW HELP DEEPEN
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. SEQUENTIAL SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR GRADIENT IS NOT
RELAXING VERY MUCH...BUT RUC13 AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AND LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE INVOLVED FEATURES SHOWS IT SHOULD START TO
BACK OFF BY ABOUT 4 OR 5 PM TODAY.
THROUGH 700 PM TONIGHT...EXPECT A MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WIND
SPEED THROUGH 1100 AM AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA DUE TO OBS TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN OUR SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED
SOON. THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAGUNA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS TO THE SURFACE
AND STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DID ADD A SCHC/ISO MENTION A
LITTLE FURTHER IN INTO KENEDY COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND THE LATEST SREF TRIES TO PAINT A LITTLE
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND LOW IMPACT.
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MID AND LOW CLOUD POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO THESE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. /68-JGG/
&&
.MARINE...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH MORNING MARINE UPDATE
DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS PICKING UP AT TCOON/OBS SITES ALONG THE
LAGUNA. WINDS SHOULD NOT DIMINISH UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT
MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH ARE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT NOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE HEATING
OF THE DAY CONTINUES SO KEPT THESE WATERS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
NOW. /68-JGG/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...GENERALLY
AFTER 14Z...TO BREEZY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING...AROUND 3Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKEN PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.40 INCHES/ AND LIFT
SHOULD PRODUCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY MAINTAINING GENERALLY HOT AND RAINFREE
CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48
STATES AFTER FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE DIGS IN...IT WILL PUSH A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO DEEP SOUTH TX SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO START TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST AFTER THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD EAST SLOWLY. SOME DECENT
MOISTURE VALUES POOL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WILL ACCORDINGLY INCLUDE A MENTION OF SLGT CHC POPS FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS
QUICKER VERSUS THE GFS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SPIN UP SOME COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING WHICH MAY ENHANCE POPS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AM NOT READY TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 % POPS UNTIL BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WHETHER OR NOT
THIS SURFACE TROFFING ACTUALLY FORMS OR NOT.
OTHER THAN THE DIFFERENCES ON THE COASTAL TROFFING..THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
FROPA ON SATURDAY AND ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB FEATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS IS PRETTY STABLE
THROUGH MON. WILL GO AT OR ABOVE THE MEX MOS TEMPS FOR THE DAYS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL GO WITH A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR SAT
AND SUN. PREFER THE GFS MEX MOS POPS THROUGH DAYS 7 AND 8.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING AND
REASONING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
MARINE /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENTLY BUOY 42020 REPORTS A
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 18 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 4.3 FEET WITH A PERIOD
OF 6 SECONDS AT 250 AM CDT. BUOY 42020 AND THE TEXAS COASTAL OCEAN
OBSERVATION NETWORK (TCOON) PLATFORMS OVERNIGHT HAVE INDICATED
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE BAY WATERS AND GULF SEAS CLOSE TO
SCEC OR SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE IN THE CENTRAL CARIB...
NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE FOR SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC GUIDANCE ALL TAKE THIS FEATURE
IS A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEX MOVING UP
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
68/67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
732 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. LATEST HIGH RES HRRR MODEL AND
NAM12 RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE WEST TX
STORMS THIS MORNING. THE TECH AND NCEP WRF MODELS PICK UP SOME OF
IT...BUT ARE TOO WEAK AS THE SHORTWAVE HAS IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING.
12Z FWD SOUNDING DOES SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHENED
ONCE AGAIN WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SO THE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO BRING RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE
LINE THE SAME FOR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...DID RAISE POPS ACROSS
THOSE AREAS WHERE THE CAP IS LIFTING AND MOISTENING TO HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO STRENGTH OF ASCENT
AND EXPECTED INSTABILITY.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED. A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS HOWEVER
IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY ONGOING FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE. WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT WITH THE THINKING THAT THEY WILL
MAINLY BE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. TIMING ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE 18-21Z IN THE METROPLEX IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER
THIS FAR EAST. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL
PERSIST. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN MOVING PROGRESSIVELY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE IN PROGRESS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN BACK INTO THE TRANS PECOS
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AFFECT FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
MID-LATE MORNING. ASCENT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS. MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF A
SHERMAN...DFW...COMANCHE LINE WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
A TIGHT GRADIENT ON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FAR NORTHWEST AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER SYSTEM TRACK.
WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER...INSTABILITY WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH
INSOLATION AND HEATING THESE AREAS CAN ACHIEVE BEFORE THE BEST
LIFT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP HAS LIFTED AND MOISTENED
SOMEWHAT THE PAST 24 HOURS ON THE LATEST FWD SOUNDING. DO FEEL THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY CAPPED PER THE TRACK OF
THIS SHORTWAVE. IF STRATUS CAN STAY OUT OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...
THEN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
WESTERLY BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS INDICATE A MULTI- CELL SCENARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS
AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL. THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT EXIT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. OTHERWISE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE THE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
15-25 MPH.
A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP ENERGY ALOFT ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE ROTATING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL ASSIST IN MOVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT OF THE FRONT
CROSSING THE RED RIVER AND MOVING TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEND TO ISOLATED-
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY
AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO NOT INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS IT PROGRESSES QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
BRISK AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG CAA NOTED IN ALL THE MODELS. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. FORCING
ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOWS BY SATURDAY
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...CONTINUING CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY CREEPING INTO THE 50S
MOST AREAS.
CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS NORTH-WEST OF DFW FALLING INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER-MID 40S ELSEWHERE. NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...BUT CONTINUING COOL WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL
CANADIAN AIR BEING SUPPORTED BY CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK LIKELY BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING AND COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES PER CONTINUED CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 70 85 68 86 / 30 10 5 0 0
WACO, TX 87 69 86 65 86 / 10 5 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 85 65 84 64 84 / 40 30 5 0 0
DENTON, TX 84 68 84 66 86 / 40 10 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 84 67 84 65 85 / 40 20 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 86 71 85 68 86 / 20 10 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 86 68 84 66 85 / 10 10 5 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 86 68 85 66 85 / 10 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 87 68 85 64 86 / 10 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 84 65 84 62 85 / 40 10 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
351 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
AT 3 AM...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THAT THERE IS STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. IT SHOWS THAT AS THIS BAND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA THAT THIS FRONTOGENESIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LESS
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SHOULD
BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE INTO A LINE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TO ITS PARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SKINNY
CAPE ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE CHANCES OF ANY HAIL WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS LOOKS RATHER MINUTE.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MODERATE OMEGA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER IT CAN BE
TAPPED. AS A RESULT...JUST LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN LOWER 60 DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GEM AND
NAM/WRF ARE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
COLD FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH HELPS
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
EXCEEDS 25 KNOTS AND THE 0-1 KM HELICITY EXCEEDS 300 M2/S2 FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE ML
CAPES CLIMBS APPROACHES 2K. THIS HELPS THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER CLIMB TO 5. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES...BUT ITS VALUES ARE MUCH WEAKER. THE TORNADO
POSSIBILITIES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON WHETHER THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED OR NOT. THE NAM/WRF WOULD SUGGEST THAT THEY
WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE GFS
WOULD SAY THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WILL JUST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
351 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
ON THURSDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE
40S BY THE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. MEANWHILE
THE GEM DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THIS
BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW. FOR THE TIME
BEING...JUST WENT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES THAT WERE IN THE ALL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
CIGS/VSBYS PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE
LIFTS BY THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A WARM FRONT AND A VERY
MOIST SFC-850MB AIRMASS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUE.
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SCT -SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AHEAD OF BROADER
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PLAINS LOW
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT OF THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. ALONG
WITH DIURNAL COOLING...CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN BR. MAY BE SOME LIFR IN FG OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE UNTIL THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. ENOUGH DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND THE
LIFT...APPEARS -DZ PERHAPS -RA TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING. CONTINUED -DZ IN BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS FROM 05-15Z. ONCE
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TUE MORNING AND WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH
THE INCREASED MIXING AND THE LIFT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THRU THE MORNING...TRENDING
TOWARD VFR TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
313 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1047 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.UPDATE...ACTIVE WX WILL BE OCCURRING TODAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CWA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30
KTS WITH FREQ-CONT LIGHTNING CG STRIKES. LINE STRETCHES FROM FAR
SE MN...TO BALLTOWN/DUBUQUE... TO DIXON IL...TO HENRY IL. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES. FURTHER...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF HAIL UPSTREAM
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...UP TO HALF INCH DIAMETER. AS SUCH...RAIN
RATES AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS CURRENTLY. WX/POPS HAVE
BEEN WALKED THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING
STEADILY...ALONG WITH DECENT HANDLING BY SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...E.G. HRRR AND NCEP SPC 4KM WRF. THOUGH THE LLJ WILL
WEAKEN AND BE SOUTH OF CWA...DECENT S/W TROUGH...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...AND WITH MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS/PWAT
VALUES...PROGGED AROUND 1.5 AT NOON...THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THUNDER GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE WX AND POPS...THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
GIVEN THERE WILL BE MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES...PRECIP...AND ON-SHORE
FLOW OFF THE COOLER LAKE...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. THOUGH GIVEN
THE LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...925 HPA RANGE 14-17 C
THOUGH WITH A VERY MOIST SOUNDING...AND WHAT THE INHERITED GRIDS
WERE...HIGHS HAVE ONLY BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY. WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED TIMING AND IMPACT OF STORMS IN
TAFS...AS THIS HAS BEEN A FAIRLY STEADY MOVING LINE. STILL
EXPECTING LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GO DOWN AS THE STORMS ROLL THROUGH TODAY.
WILL THEN SEE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW
MORNING...AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GOES SOUNDER INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALREADY
DOUBLED IN LAST 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN WI.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OUT WEST CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE
50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET PRODUCING INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SW IA/NRN MO.
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO
CONTRIBUTING LIFT TO CONVECTION. PER IR IMAGERY SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NE AREA. DESPITE WEAKENING
OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS MORNING...WAVE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM MID-MRNG THRU THE AFTN. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL
EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO SRN WI...WL CONTINUE T MENTION. MUCAPES MAY
REACH 1000 J IN THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND COOL NEARSHORE LAKE MI WATERS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA SHOULD STILL TRIGGER SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA FOR A TIME...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE LATER IN THE
NIGHT. WL CONTINUE SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOUTH LATER TNGT AS
LOW LEVEL JET GETS REENERGIZED JUST TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FOG AND MAYBE DENSE
FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
IN MOVING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN
SHOWING A LOT OF ELEVATED AND MEAN LAYER CAPE VERSUS THE GFS
SOUNDINGS.
GIVEN THE STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES OF
THE GFS SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE A MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE
STRUCTURE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...WITHIN WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME. WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOUTH WINDS.
THE WARM FRONT THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LINGERS THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING OF SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SHOWING A LOT OF MEAN LAYER AND ELEVATED CAPE. LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOUNDINGS FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
WILL TRY TO GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WARM
SECTOR SHOULD BE CAPPED. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE FOCUSES...WITH SOME FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CAP WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA AS WELL.
ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...SOME POSSIBLY DENSE...TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH
THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF
IT TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...AS
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN PLACE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF FRONT DURING THE DAY ALSO HELPS WITH
SEVERE CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
TRAILING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE ECMWF DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS OF
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL POPS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WENT
WITH CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS OF IFR OR
LOWER FOR MOST OF TNGT. DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER LAKE MI. MAIN
PROBLEM WILL BE DENSE FOG THREAT. WARM...MOIST AIR EXPECTED TO
SURGE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
DATA HAS THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
IN THE MID LAKE TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE
SHALLOWER WATERS. DEWPOINTS WL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HENCE THIS MILD MOIST AIR WOULD
BE COOLED OVER THE LAKE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ADVECTION DENSE FOG.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PULL THE 50-55 DEGREE WATER INTO THE
NEARSHORE AREAS...REDUCING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SO FOR NOW WL
MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE TNGT BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVY.
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS MAY RESULT IN MORE ELY SFC WINDS FOR A
TIME LATER TODAY AND TNGT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
351 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
AT 3 AM...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THAT THERE IS STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. IT SHOWS THAT AS THIS BAND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA THAT THIS FRONTOGENESIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LESS
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SHOULD
BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE INTO A LINE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TO ITS PARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SKINNY
CAPE ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE CHANCES OF ANY HAIL WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS LOOKS RATHER MINUTE.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MODERATE OMEGA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER IT CAN BE
TAPPED. AS A RESULT...JUST LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN LOWER 60 DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GEM AND
NAM/WRF ARE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
COLD FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH HELPS
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
EXCEEDS 25 KNOTS AND THE 0-1 KM HELICITY EXCEEDS 300 M2/S2 FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE ML
CAPES CLIMBS APPROACHES 2K. THIS HELPS THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER CLIMB TO 5. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES...BUT ITS VALUES ARE MUCH WEAKER. THE TORNADO
POSSIBILITIES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON WHETHER THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED OR NOT. THE NAM/WRF WOULD SUGGEST THAT THEY
WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE GFS
WOULD SAY THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WILL JUST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
351 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
ON THURSDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE
40S BY THE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. MEANWHILE
THE GEM DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THIS
BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW. FOR THE TIME
BEING...JUST WENT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES THAT WERE IN THE ALL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
634 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
CEILING HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THE
MAIN CONCERN. INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER IOWA PUSHING NORTHEAST ON NOSE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EXPECT THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE RAIN BEGINS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM SHOWING LOW LEVEL SATURATION TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KRST AND POSSIBLY KLSE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION IT AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
313 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
351 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
AT 3 AM...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THAT THERE IS STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. IT SHOWS THAT AS THIS BAND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA THAT THIS FRONTOGENESIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LESS
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SHOULD
BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE INTO A LINE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TO ITS PARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SKINNY
CAPE ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE CHANCES OF ANY HAIL WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS LOOKS RATHER MINUTE.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MODERATE OMEGA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER IT CAN BE
TAPPED. AS A RESULT...JUST LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN LOWER 60 DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GEM AND
NAM/WRF ARE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
COLD FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH HELPS
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
EXCEEDS 25 KNOTS AND THE 0-1 KM HELICITY EXCEEDS 300 M2/S2 FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE ML
CAPES CLIMBS APPROACHES 2K. THIS HELPS THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER CLIMB TO 5. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES...BUT ITS VALUES ARE MUCH WEAKER. THE TORNADO
POSSIBILITIES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON WHETHER THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED OR NOT. THE NAM/WRF WOULD SUGGEST THAT THEY
WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE GFS
WOULD SAY THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WILL JUST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
351 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
ON THURSDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE
40S BY THE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. MEANWHILE
THE GEM DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THIS
BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW. FOR THE TIME
BEING...JUST WENT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES THAT WERE IN THE ALL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THIS EVENING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLOWING TREND IN THE
FORECAST. THE STRATOCUMULUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS IOWA
MOVING PAST THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
TOWARD THE AREA AND SPREAD ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CEILINGS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
THE 22.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE
WILL STILL OCCUR BUT IS SHOWN TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT 1-2 UBAR/S.
WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING NOT EXPECTING THE RAIN TO PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL COME DOWN TO
MVFR BUT NOT EXPECTING IFR AND REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND WITH A LITTLE
COOLING MONDAY EVENING COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP WITH A GENERAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS BUT REMAINING MVFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
313 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
110 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR. PERIODS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS IN SHOWERS AFTER 12Z/TUESDAY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND
OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
...WITH HIGHER PEAKS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE PEAKS
OBSCURED AFTER 12Z/TUESDAY IN SHOWERS...CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
12Z/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AFTER
12Z/TUESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS...LEE
EDDY EFFECTS AND A DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN WAVE AND INCREASING
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. RUBIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012/
UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE BORDEAUX AND
ARLINGTON AREAS TO WARNINGS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT OTHER ZONES...NAMELY THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE...MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS THE STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH OUT
THAT WAY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
CLAYCOMB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY GENERALLY SHOW IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. KSNY IS SEEING THE LOWEST VIS/CIGS AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 18Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE WY
SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
WINDY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 30-35 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BUILDING DOWN STRATUS HAS LED TO A FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KFT. THE FOG
PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW BANK OF STRATUS/FOG BACKING
WEST/SOUTHWEST. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST THE WESTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE FOG SHOULD SLOW TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY
LATE MORNING AS THE LLVLS BEGINS TO MIX AND BECOME COUPLED.
OTHERWISE AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CARBON AND
CONVERSE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE HELD BACK ACROSS WESTERN
WYOMING...SO THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRODUCING LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
H7 TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR 6-7C.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT FOR WIND PRONE
AREAS LATER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PAINTING A POCKET OF 50-60
KNOT H7 WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND THE NRN LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER 03Z. THE PROGD KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS REMAIN ON THE LOW-
SIDE OF TYPICAL WARNING CRITERIA...HOVERING BETWEEN 47 AND 53
METERS AT H85 AND H7 BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE OVERCOME
AS THE SUBSIDING RFQ OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK WORKS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STABLE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND H7 WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AT THE
TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. SO...HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 9P TONIGHT THROUGH
9A TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS OTHER LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES TONIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THAT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN COUPLED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THUS SHOULD NOT SEE THESE STRONG WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEPART ON TUESDAY SO ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...EXPECT
THEM TO LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CARBON...CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STRONG SW/NE
ORIENTED JET STREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR TUESDAY WHILE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK WILL NOSE
INTO COLORADO PLACING THE FAVORABLE LFQ OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
THE LAGGING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LFQ TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM HOWEVER. UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S
FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE WED NIGHT PERIOD AS A
FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE CWA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO ON
WED NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB
JET BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE ON WED NIGHT. PRECIP COULD START OUT
INITIALLY AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON WED
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SNOW AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS IN
THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THIS FIRST WAVE. SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURS MORNING
WITH SNOW RATES DROPPING OFF. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THURS WITH LLVL UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S OVER THE
PLAINS WITH CLOUD COVER...UPSLOPE...AND SNOW COVER MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH WARMING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK
ON THURS...LLVL UPSLOPE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME WEAK
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED
TO TREK FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO ON THURS NIGHT. WITH DEEP LAYER
UPWARD MOTION INCREASING ON THURS NIGHT...AND LLVL UPSLOPE ALREADY
IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AS A SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON QPF AMOUNTS. SNOW COMES TO AN END BY MIDDAY FRI
AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRI WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ON SAT WITH DRYING IN LOW AND MIDLEVELS. NOT GOING TO SEE
ANY BIG WARMUP UNTIL SUN...WHEN THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS IS REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IF CURRENT FORECASTS HOLD THIS
WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. BEFORE THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS THAT WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG ACROSS WIND
PRONE AREAS NEAR ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD HOLD IN THE
20S AND 30S FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
INCREASE AS COLDER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WORK IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-
WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1049 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012
.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE BORDEAUX AND
ARLINGTON AREAS TO WARNINGS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT OTHER ZONES...NAMELY THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE...MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS THE STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH OUT
THAT WAY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY GENERALLY SHOW IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. KSNY IS SEEING THE LOWEST VIS/CIGS AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 18Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE WY
SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
WINDY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 30-35 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BUILDING DOWN STRATUS HAS LED TO A FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KFT. THE FOG
PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW BANK OF STRATUS/FOG BACKING
WEST/SOUTHWEST. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST THE WESTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE FOG SHOULD SLOW TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY
LATE MORNING AS THE LLVLS BEGINS TO MIX AND BECOME COUPLED.
OTHERWISE AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CARBON AND
CONVERSE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE HELD BACK ACROSS WESTERN
WYOMING...SO THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRODUCING LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
H7 TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR 6-7C.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT FOR WIND PRONE
AREAS LATER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PAINTING A POCKET OF 50-60
KNOT H7 WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND THE NRN LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER 03Z. THE PROGD KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS REMAIN ON THE LOW-
SIDE OF TYPICAL WARNING CRITERIA...HOVERING BETWEEN 47 AND 53
METERS AT H85 AND H7 BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE OVERCOME
AS THE SUBSIDING RFQ OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK WORKS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STABLE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND H7 WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AT THE
TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. SO...HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 9P TONIGHT THROUGH
9A TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS OTHER LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES TONIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THAT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN COUPLED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THUS SHOULD NOT SEE THESE STRONG WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEPART ON TUESDAY SO ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...EXPECT
THEM TO LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CARBON...CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STRONG SW/NE
ORIENTED JET STREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR TUESDAY WHILE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK WILL NOSE
INTO COLORADO PLACING THE FAVORABLE LFQ OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
THE LAGGING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LFQ TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM HOWEVER. UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S
FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE WED NIGHT PERIOD AS A
FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE CWA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO ON
WED NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB
JET BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE ON WED NIGHT. PRECIP COULD START OUT
INITIALLY AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON WED
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SNOW AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS IN
THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THIS FIRST WAVE. SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURS MORNING
WITH SNOW RATES DROPPING OFF. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THURS WITH LLVL UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S OVER THE
PLAINS WITH CLOUD COVER...UPSLOPE...AND SNOW COVER MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH WARMING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK
ON THURS...LLVL UPSLOPE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME WEAK
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED
TO TREK FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO ON THURS NIGHT. WITH DEEP LAYER
UPWARD MOTION INCREASING ON THURS NIGHT...AND LLVL UPSLOPE ALREADY
IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AS A SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON QPF AMOUNTS. SNOW COMES TO AN END BY MIDDAY FRI
AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRI WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ON SAT WITH DRYING IN LOW AND MIDLEVELS. NOT GOING TO SEE
ANY BIG WARMUP UNTIL SUN...WHEN THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS IS REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IF CURRENT FORECASTS HOLD THIS
WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. BEFORE THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS THAT WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG ACROSS WIND
PRONE AREAS NEAR ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD HOLD IN THE
20S AND 30S FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
INCREASE AS COLDER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WORK IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-
WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
601 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY GENERALLY SHOW IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. KSNY IS SEEING THE LOWEST VIS/CIGS AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 18Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE WY
SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
WINDY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 30-35 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BUILDING DOWN STRATUS HAS LED TO A FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KFT. THE FOG
PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW BANK OF STRATUS/FOG BACKING
WEST/SOUTHWEST. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST THE WESTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE FOG SHOULD SLOW TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY
LATE MORNING AS THE LLVLS BEGINS TO MIX AND BECOME COUPLED.
OTHERWISE AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CARBON AND
CONVERSE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE HELD BACK ACROSS WESTERN
WYOMING...SO THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRODUCING LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
H7 TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR 6-7C.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT FOR WIND PRONE
AREAS LATER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PAINTING A POCKET OF 50-60
KNOT H7 WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND THE NRN LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER 03Z. THE PROGD KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS REMAIN ON THE LOW-
SIDE OF TYPICAL WARNING CRITERIA...HOVERING BETWEEN 47 AND 53
METERS AT H85 AND H7 BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE OVERCOME
AS THE SUBSIDING RFQ OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK WORKS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STABLE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND H7 WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AT THE
TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. SO...HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 9P TONIGHT THROUGH
9A TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS OTHER LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES TONIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THAT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN COUPLED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THUS SHOULD NOT SEE THESE STRONG WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEPART ON TUESDAY SO ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...EXPECT
THEM TO LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CARBON...CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STRONG SW/NE
ORIENTED JET STREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR TUESDAY WHILE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK WILL NOSE
INTO COLORADO PLACING THE FAVORABLE LFQ OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
THE LAGGING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LFQ TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM HOWEVER. UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S
FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE WED NIGHT PERIOD AS A
FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE CWA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO ON
WED NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB
JET BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE ON WED NIGHT. PRECIP COULD START OUT
INITIALLY AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON WED
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SNOW AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS IN
THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THIS FIRST WAVE. SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURS MORNING
WITH SNOW RATES DROPPING OFF. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THURS WITH LLVL UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S OVER THE
PLAINS WITH CLOUD COVER...UPSLOPE...AND SNOW COVER MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH WARMING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK
ON THURS...LLVL UPSLOPE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME WEAK
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED
TO TREK FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO ON THURS NIGHT. WITH DEEP LAYER
UPWARD MOTION INCREASING ON THURS NIGHT...AND LLVL UPSLOPE ALREADY
IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AS A SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON QPF AMOUNTS. SNOW COMES TO AN END BY MIDDAY FRI
AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRI WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ON SAT WITH DRYING IN LOW AND MIDLEVELS. NOT GOING TO SEE
ANY BIG WARMUP UNTIL SUN...WHEN THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS IS REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IF CURRENT FORECASTS HOLD THIS
WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. BEFORE THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS THAT WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG ACROSS WIND
PRONE AREAS NEAR ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD HOLD IN THE
20S AND 30S FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
INCREASE AS COLDER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WORK IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-
WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
427 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...ODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BUILDING DOWN STRATUS HAS LED TO A FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KFT. THE FOG
PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW BANK OF STRATUS/FOG BACKING
WEST/SOUTHWEST. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST THE WESTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE FOG SHOULD SLOW TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY
LATE MORNING AS THE LLVLS BEGINS TO MIX AND BECOME COUPLED.
OTHERWISE AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CARBON AND
CONVERSE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE HELD BACK ACROSS WESTERN
WYOMING...SO THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PRODUCING LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
H7 TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR 6-7C.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT FOR WIND PRONE
AREAS LATER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PAINTING A POCKET OF 50-60
KNOT H7 WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND THE NRN LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER 03Z. THE PROGD KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS REMAIN ON THE LOW-
SIDE OF TYPICAL WARNING CRITERIA...HOVERING BETWEEN 47 AND 53
METERS AT H85 AND H7 BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE OVERCOME
AS THE SUBSIDING RFQ OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK WORKS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STABLE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND H7 WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AT THE
TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. SO...HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 9P TONIGHT THROUGH
9A TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS OTHER LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES TONIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THAT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN COUPLED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THUS SHOULD NOT SEE THESE STRONG WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEPART ON TUESDAY SO ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...EXPECT
THEM TO LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CARBON...CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STRONG SW/NE
ORIENTED JET STREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR TUESDAY WHILE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK WILL NOSE
INTO COLORADO PLACING THE FAVORABLE LFQ OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
THE LAGGING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LFQ TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM HOWEVER. UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S
FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE WED NIGHT PERIOD AS A
FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE CWA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO ON
WED NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB
JET BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE ON WED NIGHT. PRECIP COULD START OUT
INITIALLY AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON WED
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SNOW AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS IN
THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THIS FIRST WAVE. SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURS MORNING
WITH SNOW RATES DROPPING OFF. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THURS WITH LLVL UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S OVER THE
PLAINS WITH CLOUD COVER...UPSLOPE...AND SNOW COVER MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH WARMING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK
ON THURS...LLVL UPSLOPE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME WEAK
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED
TO TREK FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO ON THURS NIGHT. WITH DEEP LAYER
UPWARD MOTION INCREASING ON THURS NIGHT...AND LLVL UPSLOPE ALREADY
IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AS A SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON QPF AMOUNTS. SNOW COMES TO AN END BY MIDDAY FRI
AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRI WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ON SAT WITH DRYING IN LOW AND MIDLEVELS. NOT GOING TO SEE
ANY BIG WARMUP UNTIL SUN...WHEN THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS IS REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TONIGHT. FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS...CURRENT
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST INTO KAIA
AND KCDR. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FROM KCDR KSNY AND KBFF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING FOR CIGS BELOW 1K FEET AGL AND VIS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 MILES...AND MAYBE EVEN BELOW A MILE AT KSNY AND
KAIA BY SUNRISE. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT BY MIDDAY MONDAY
WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IF CURRENT FORECASTS HOLD THIS
WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. BEFORE THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS THAT WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG ACROSS WIND
PRONE AREAS NEAR ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD HOLD IN THE
20S AND 30S FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
INCREASE AS COLDER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WORK IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-
WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...TT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
850 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ABOUT BUTTE MEADOWS-CHICO-CAPAY-VALLEJO THIS
MORNING MOVING SEWD ABOUT 20 KTS. BROAD AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL PCPN
EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY AREAS/POCKETS OF
HEAVIER PRECIP. DUAL POL DATA SUGGEST WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 4 KFT
OVER W SLOPE SIERNEV THIS MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE
PRECIP WILL BE TAPERING IN INTENSITY OVER THE SIERRA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DARKENING/SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ONSHORE INDICATES THE END OF THE MAIN
PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP...BUT SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS COLD UNSTABLE AIR
WITH ISOLD THUNDER JUST OFF THE COAST WILL BE ROTATING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THE HRRR PICKS UP THE
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL RANGE AND WRN SAC VLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING PRECIP OVER THE HIGH SIERRA. WHILE THE NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE COASTAL RANGE AND W SIDE OF THE SAC VLY FOR THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR HIGHLIGHTS THE NRN
SAC VLY AND NE SAC VLY FOOTHILLS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEARING/EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOME PARTS OF
THE VALLEY AND SNOWFALL AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA ARE EXPECTED....THOUGH A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF FEET.
A MINUS 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MBS HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL BE
AFFECTING NORCAL THROUGH WED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS
DISTURBANCES/VORT MAXES MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH. DRIER
AND MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS RIDGING
FROM THE EPAC SHIFTS OVERHEAD. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
COLDFRONT IMPACTING NORCAL TODAY. TAF SITES WILL OSCILLATE BTWN
VFR-MVFR VSBYS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DURING HEAVIER RAIN.
SLY WINDS THRU THE VLY TODAY AROUND 10-25 KTS. OVER SIERRA...
MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND SLY TO SWLY
WINDS AROUND 20-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS...LCLLY HIGHER
GUSTS OVER SIERRA RIDGETOPS. FOR COASTAL MTNS...SNOW LEVEL BTWN
5000-6000 FT WITH VFR/MVFR CONDS AND W TO SW WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR
THE WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500
FEET FOR THE BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY...SHASTA LAKE
AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...STILL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVERLAID ACROSS THE REGION. FROM CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOWERING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AND THIS
TREND IS REFLECTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AS
WELL.
HOWEVER...DID NOT LOWER POPS TOO MUCH TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
WITH REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE MUCH OF THIS
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FROM RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STAY WITHIN THE
REGION. IN THE MORNING...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT...POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE LOWERING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ABUNDANT. HOWEVER...NOTED THAT SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
STARTING TO MOVE IN ALOFT...GENERALLY ABOVE 700MB ON AVERAGE. THIS
SHOULD LOWER THE AMOUNT OF COLLISION COALESCENCE...RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE. THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION FROM 950 TO 900 MB TOO...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND KEEP DRIZZLE IN PLACE.
RAIN AMOUNTS LIKEWISE ARE VERY SMALL AND ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WERE TAKEN FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND MET GUIDANCE
WHICH LEANS TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS
MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC.
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. BASED ON LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES...NE ZONES COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME CLEARING LATE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS
WESTERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE WED
NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S
CITY/COAST AND MID TO UPPER 40S INTERIOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST COMPLEXITIES ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NHC FORECASTS SANDY TO MOVE NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI MORNING AND THEN NORTHEAST THEREAFTER...BECOMING
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE UPON REACHING 31N 70.5W BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ITS INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK CONSISTING OF A
BLOCKING UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AN OCEAN STORM OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A DIGGING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IS CRITICAL IN
DETERMINING THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM. THERE COULD STILL BE
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE STORM TO UNDERCUT THE BLOCK AND HEAD
EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS...SOME GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE GLOBAL GEM...BUT AT THE SAME TIME A GROWING
NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SIDING WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION OF TAKING THE STORM NORTHWARD ALONG 70W
THEREAFTER...AND MAKING A NW TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY
MON-TUE AS THE STORM PHASES WITH AND/OR UNDERGOES FUJIWARA
INTERACTION WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING HIGH OFFERS LITTLE CHANCE OF AN OUT-TO-SEA PATH. WHERE AND
WHEN ANY SUCH NW TURN OF THE STORM WOULD TAKE PLACE...AND AT WHAT
INTENSITY...ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THE ECMWF COULD BE TOO PHASED/
AMPLIFIED AND TOO FAR WEST...AND AS THE NW-BENDING GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DISAGREE ON THE POINT OF ANY NW RE-CURVATURE...OCCURRING
ANYWHERE FROM 55W TO 70W. FORECAST DETAILS NECESSARILY REMAIN
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT. WINDY CONDITIONS...HEAVY RAIN AND SOME COASTAL
FLOODING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME LIKELY...WITH A WORST CASE
SCENARIO OF FLOODING RAINS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING...FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. STAY TUNED.
PRIOR TO THIS TIME...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS WILL GENERALLY SPELL A CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THU INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...
VIA RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPS ON FRI COULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST IF LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS MORE SW THAN S...BUT EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS ON SAT
DESPITE SUNSHINE AS FLOW AGAIN TURNS ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.
AFTER A VFR START...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO VARY FROM VFR AND MVFR
TOWARDS SUNRISE...THEN BECOME MAINLY MVFR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IS
MODERATE...WITH A CHANCE THAT IT COULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR. MAINLY
VFR WITH POSSIBLY POCKETS OF MVFR THIS EVENING...AS POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE WANES. EXCEPTION TO THIS KSWF WHICH STARTS OUT
LIFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR AROUND MID MORNING. SHOULD SEE AREA OF
DRIZZLE AT KSWF THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR.
.THURSDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NE WINDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WED
NIGHT.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THU THROUGH SAT WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU INTO THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OCEAN SEAS COULD BEGIN TO REACH SCA CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS SAT
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT VIA SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM SANDY. A
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS SANDY
BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED...EXCEPT MAINTAINED A BUILDING
TREND FOR OCEAN SEAS INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH AS 10 FT SUNDAY MORNING
AND AS HIGH AS 15 FT BY MON MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A BASIN
AVERAGE OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THEN POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EITHER DIRECTLY FROM SANDY OR FROM INFLUX OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ON A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW...AND LIFT
VIA AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND/OR AN INVERTED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH OF SANDY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM/NV
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...NV/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
237 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
2 AM TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ARE STILL
AT OR ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY. HAVE SEEN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR
HAS SHOWN SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN IOWA...ALONG A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. BROADER SURFACE
MAP SHOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER WESTERN KANSAS...
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN.
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE INVOLVE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND THE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
DUE TO THE RAIN...BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL HELP BRING DOWN SOME OF THE
MILDER AIR UPSTAIRS...AND MIXING DOWN FROM 850 MB WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES. SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS AS A RESULT.
UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT...HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD
WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THE NAM...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-57 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNSET...BUT THE GFS
LAGS BEHIND A BIT. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF I-55 AND SPREAD THEM INTO THE EASTERN CWA AFTER SUNSET.
SOME WEAK CAPES AROUND 500-800 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOW
PROBABILITIES AROUND 5 PERCENT INDICATED IN LATEST SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK. MUCH OF THE RAIN IS POST-FRONTAL...THUS RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY DESPITE THE FRONT BEING WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH. AN UPPER WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP ENHANCE THIS RAIN. MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT LIKELY POPS REMAIN
JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TEENS CELSIUS TO BELOW ZERO IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS. THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOWER 50S. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE EVEN
COOLER DUE TO THE RAIN.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
PROGRESSION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHEAST CURVE IS FAVORED BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CONTINUED NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND THE STORM TAKING A
HARD LEFT TURN INTO THE NEW YORK CITY/NEW JERSEY AREA LATE MONDAY.
THAT KIND OF SCENARIO WOULD BOTTLE UP THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSION
INTO LATE WEEK. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE MIDWEST...BUT WHEN
IT WILL EXIT IS STILL UP FOR GRABS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IL TAF SITES IN THE 10-13Z RANGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN CENTRAL/SRN MO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
IL THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE. THE O0Z NAM SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CLOUD
BASE FORECASTS BOTH POINT TO THIS AFTER 09Z. THEY ARE BOTH
INDICATING SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THIS LOW
COVERAGE/LOW POP PRECIP POSSIBILITY FOR NOW.
PLENTY OF MIXING AND LOW/MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRODUCE A
BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MILLER
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
BLOOMINGTON..... 82 IN 1902
CHAMPAIGN....... 80 IN 1991+
CHARLESTON...... 83 IN 1927
EFFINGHAM....... 84 IN 1934+
JACKSONVILLE.... 84 IN 1940
LINCOLN......... 87 IN 1992
PEORIA.......... 81 IN 1963
RUSHVILLE....... 82 IN 1927+
SPRINGFIELD..... 83 IN 1963
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 838 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST IL...AND TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH
A FEW LOWER 60S IN EAST CENTRAL IL. READINGS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW
MORE DEGREES AS DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ALL NIGHT.
CLOUDS WERE MAINLY NORTH OF I-74 ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE LOOP...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
AM EXPECTING A CLEAR SKY TO THEN PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP. THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SOUTH WIND
AROUND 10 MPH WILL KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AND INSTEAD WE SHOULD SEE
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FORM...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THESE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY AND MILD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IL TAF SITES IN THE 10-13Z RANGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN CENTRAL/SRN MO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
IL THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE. THE O0Z NAM SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CLOUD
BASE FORECASTS BOTH POINT TO THIS AFTER 09Z. THEY ARE BOTH
INDICATING SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THIS LOW
COVERAGE/LOW POP PRECIP POSSIBILITY FOR NOW.
PLENTY OF MIXING AND LOW/MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRODUCE A
BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MILLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH DID
NOT CHANGE THINGS TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FOLLOWED
EXPECT LEANED ON THE WARM MAV FOR HIGHS THU...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHORT WAVE EXITING INTO INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL END THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE IL WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT. DID INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS WITH MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S...COOLEST FROM I-57 EAST.
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WARM HIGHS AROUND 80F
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST IL THU WHILE AREAS NW
OF THE IL RIVER ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODELS DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO NW IL BY 18Z/THU AND GETTING TO THE WABASH RIVER
BY MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO KEPT EASTERN IL DRY THU WITH
AREAS FROM I-55 SEEING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THU AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO EASTERN/SE IL THU EVENING.
SPC HAS 5% RISK OF HAIL AND WIND THU AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55 AND
INTO EASTERN IL TOO THU EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK
AND MODELS HAVE DIMINISHED THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWER QUICKER LATE
THIS WEEK...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. MUCH COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI AND THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS STATED EARLIER...MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL SYSTEM (SANDY) TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS TO BE A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER IL AND SLOWING UP THE
WARM UP NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
159 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.AVIATION...
KEPT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A TEMPO MVFR GROUP EARLY.
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WAS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH MOIST CONDITIONS.
THE WARM AND MOIST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EVEN
WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVEL...WITH ANY SC
DECK EVENTUALLY BECOMING SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012/
SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ONGOING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUED MODERATING
TREND INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AIDED BY MCV THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED...BUT
HAS LEFT SOME RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE LOW LEVELS. RAP INITIALIZATION
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON DO DEPICT SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PERSISTING FOR 850 HPA BASED PARCELS HOWEVER. REMAINING SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED WITH WEAK DPVA
ZONE IN ADVANCE OF REMNANTS OF DAMPENING BAJA OF CALIFORNIA SHORT
WAVE. A STRONGER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DECAYING TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z GIVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PERIOD OF STRONGEST
FORCING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS IN STORE
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL AREA REMAINING IN WARM SECTOR. SOME SCATTERING OF
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SFC GRADIENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO AROUND 60
FAR WEST. IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER THIS EVENING...GRADIENT SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP BUT
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT LENDS SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AS REINFORCING
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ADVECTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME LINGERING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTH AND FAR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DESPITE LIMITED
MIXING HEIGHTS...MIXING TO 900 HPA SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S WHICH IS INLINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RECORD HIGH AT KSBN
FOR OCTOBER 24TH IS 79 SET BACK IN 1975 WHICH DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
RISK OF BEING REACHED. DRY...MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE
STRONGER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM... /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ENERGY FROM CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BRING A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EFFECTS OF LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS WILL FURTHER IMPACT
THE REGION WITH WARMEST AIR ARRIVING JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 900 MB AND POSSIBLY 850 MB YIELDING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS RUNNING TOWARDS 80
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF IT WITH EASTWARD
TREND EXPECTED IN TERMS OF MSTR THROUGH THURS NGT. MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN EXACT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT (GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS) WITH ALL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING OF A SLOW PUSH AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. AREA OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO THE WEST AND ENTER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING. COMBINATION
OF SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LESS OPTIMAL TIME FRAME FOR FROPA
MAY ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIP INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS THEN REFIRE SHOWERS IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY
AS MAIN ENERGY FINALLY DIGS IN AND PUSHES FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CAA UNDERWAY HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BEGINS TO WANE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
MODEL CAMP GENERALLY SPLIT ON HANDLING ON INTERACTION BETWEEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...CONTINUED NW TO N FLOW OVER
THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AROUND...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. EXACT TRAJECTORIES
AND AMOUNT OF RESIDENT MSTR REMAIN IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.
GENERALLY WENT WITH COMBO OF PREV AND CONSALL TO HANDLE THIS TIME
FRAME.
RAN PRETTY MUCH WITH EITHER ALLBLEND OF GUIDANCE OR CONSALL FOR MANY
PARAMETERS INTO TUESDAY AS EXACT DETAILS OF EVOLUTION OF EAST COAST
SYSTEM REMAIN IN FLUX. ECMWF/GEM HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT ON A
STRONG WESTWARD PULL OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN STATES
VS GFS/GEFS SENDING IT OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF LATE NOD
GIVEN TO ECMWF/GEM...RESULTING IN ADDITION OF LOW END POPS TUESDAY
WHEN PROXIMITY OF ANY WRAP AROUND MSTR WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE.
ALLBLEND RAN A BIT TOO HIGH SO WAS TEMPERED SOMEWHAT TO REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
814 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
.AVIATION... /00 UTC TAF/
LOW CONFIDENCE WRT EVENING ISSUANCE. INCRS IN 1-2KFT LYR FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR STRATOCU
REDVLPMENT ACRS NRN EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR/SRN GRTLKS. COVERAGE AND
BYND THAT THE EXACT CIG LVLS REMAIN QUITE AMBIGOUS AMID MIXED
SIGNALS PER FORECAST SNDGS/GUIDANCE. WITH MODEST SFC BASED INVERSION
DVLPG HAVE MENTION OF LLWS W/ACK TO EVENT ON/NEAR LOW END OF
CRITERIA. WEAK PARCEL UVM/UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS SUGGEST SOME
RESURGENCE OF LIGHT PRECIP -RA/-DZ PSBL ERLY AM. THEREAFTER...WARM
SECTOR DEEPENS AMID STRONG/DEEP SRLY FLOW WITH VFR MET CONDS BY
MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ONGOING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUED MODERATING
TREND INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AIDED BY MCV THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED...BUT
HAS LEFT SOME RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE LOW LEVELS. RAP INITIALIZATION
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON DO DEPICT SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PERSISTING FOR 850 HPA BASED PARCELS HOWEVER. REMAINING SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED WITH WEAK DPVA
ZONE IN ADVANCE OF REMNANTS OF DAMPENING BAJA OF CALIFORNIA SHORT
WAVE. A STRONGER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DECAYING TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z GIVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PERIOD OF STRONGEST
FORCING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS IN STORE
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL AREA REMAINING IN WARM SECTOR. SOME SCATTERING OF
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SFC GRADIENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO AROUND 60
FAR WEST. IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER THIS EVENING...GRADIENT SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP BUT
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT LENDS SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AS REINFORCING
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ADVECTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME LINGERING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTH AND FAR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DESPITE LIMITED
MIXING HEIGHTS...MIXING TO 900 HPA SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S WHICH IS INLINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RECORD HIGH AT KSBN
FOR OCTOBER 24TH IS 79 SET BACK IN 1975 WHICH DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
RISK OF BEING REACHED. DRY...MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE
STRONGER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM... /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ENERGY FROM CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BRING A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EFFECTS OF LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS WILL FURTHER IMPACT
THE REGION WITH WARMEST AIR ARRIVING JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 900 MB AND POSSIBLY 850 MB YIELDING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS RUNNING TOWARDS 80
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF IT WITH EASTWARD
TREND EXPECTED IN TERMS OF MSTR THROUGH THURS NGT. MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN EXACT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT (GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS) WITH ALL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING OF A SLOW PUSH AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. AREA OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO THE WEST AND ENTER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING. COMBINATION
OF SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LESS OPTIMAL TIME FRAME FOR FROPA
MAY ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIP INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS THEN REFIRE SHOWERS IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY
AS MAIN ENERGY FINALLY DIGS IN AND PUSHES FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CAA UNDERWAY HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BEGINS TO WANE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
MODEL CAMP GENERALLY SPLIT ON HANDLING ON INTERACTION BETWEEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...CONTINUED NW TO N FLOW OVER
THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AROUND...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. EXACT TRAJECTORIES
AND AMOUNT OF RESIDENT MSTR REMAIN IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.
GENERALLY WENT WITH COMBO OF PREV AND CONSALL TO HANDLE THIS TIME
FRAME.
RAN PRETTY MUCH WITH EITHER ALLBLEND OF GUIDANCE OR CONSALL FOR MANY
PARAMETERS INTO TUESDAY AS EXACT DETAILS OF EVOLUTION OF EAST COAST
SYSTEM REMAIN IN FLUX. ECMWF/GEM HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT ON A
STRONG WESTWARD PULL OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN STATES
VS GFS/GEFS SENDING IT OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF LATE NOD
GIVEN TO ECMWF/GEM...RESULTING IN ADDITION OF LOW END POPS TUESDAY
WHEN PROXIMITY OF ANY WRAP AROUND MSTR WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE.
ALLBLEND RAN A BIT TOO HIGH SO WAS TEMPERED SOMEWHAT TO REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
320 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST GIVEN PROBLEMATIC MCV ROTATING THROUGH
WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS FIRED AHEAD OF MAIN
SHORT WAVE IN AREA OF STRONG THETA E ADVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL JET.
SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MCV DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN IL AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO WI. 12Z 4KM WRF WAS A TOTAL BUST WITH NO
INDICATION OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION AT 18Z. HRRR WAS PERFORMING
WELL ON A FEW OF ITS RUNS AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH SOME
EXTRAPOLATION. MOST SPECTRAL GUIDANCE DID NOT MODEL MCV AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WHICH HAS LIMITED ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. SPECTRAL MODELS SEEM OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN AREA
NEAR WARM FRONT BUT BETWEEN SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVES. HAVE TIMED CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS CWA INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A DIMINISHING TREND.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. SECOND SHORT WAVE
AND PV ANOMALY APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND THIS FEATURE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL IMPACT MOST OF AREA ON
TUESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING/DETAIL OF POPS WITH LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING ALL BUT SE AREAS. KEPT A CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST TUE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA BUT MOVING
EAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON TUE AGAIN TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN BUT
SINCE WE MANAGED TO REACH 70 MOST AREAS TODAY SEE SIMILAR NUMBERS ON
TUE WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH WHERE RAIN ENDS IN MORNING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE INTO THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +15 TO +17
CELSIUS RANGE. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY MIX
THROUGH AROUND 900 MB YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDS
AND THURS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INLINE WITH PREV GRIDS AND NEAR OR
ABOVE GUIDANCE. IF FULL MIX OUT THROUGH 850 MB OCCURS...TEMPS COULD
JUMP INTO THE LOWER 80S.
FORECAST BECOMES MORE MUDDLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IN TERMS OF HANDLING OF SEVERAL LARGE SCALE FEATURES. FIRST IS LARGE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA IN THURS NGT/FRI TIME FRAME. FROM HERE THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HANDLING OF PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGH. 12Z
GFS HAS KEPT A POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH AND COLDER
AIR ARRIVING BEHIND IT WITH LITTLE LINGERING PRECIP. 00Z ECMWF
STALLED THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING
ALONG IT TO BRING CHANCES INTO SATURDAY. 12Z GEFS/GEM/00Z ECMWF THEN
INDICATE TROUGH BECOMES SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS BRINGS TO
LIGHT THE 2ND FEATURE OF CONCERN...WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME TROPICAL
SYSTEM SANDY LATER TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AND
TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE A BLOCKY PATTER TO
ESTABLISH WITH MODELS BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON POSSIBLE PHASING OF
SOME OF THE TROPICAL ENERGY AND THE TROUGH...DEVELOPING A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING IN A BLAST OF COLD AIR AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW INTO NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THIS PHASING AND SOMEWHAT MORE REALISTIC
BOMBING OUT OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. COLDER AIR WILL STILL
ARRIVE REGARDLESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLY IN PLAY.
HAVE TRIED TO KEEP FOR THE MOST PART WITH PREV GRIDS AND UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE WITH TRENDS OF ALL MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. REMOVED SOME OF THE MIXED PRECIP WORDING WITH
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1300 TO 1310 DM
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING LINE OF CONVECTION NEARING KSBN AT ISSUANCE AND WILL
BE INTO KFWA BY 20Z. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE THROUGH TAF SITES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MCV WILL LIFT NORTH AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE TO END PCPN FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING. DIFFICULT FORECAST
REMAINDER OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH
OF TAF SITES AND MODELS INDICATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD FIRE
AND MOVE EAST ALONG BOUNDARY. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN COMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SECOND POTENT SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OK THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED
TAFS DOWN TO MVFR FOR CIGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR POSSIBLE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSTREAM TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AT TAF SITES DURING AFTERNOON TUESDAY JUST BEYOND THIS
VALID PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1250 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 S/W THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWFA AS OF NOON.
THAT MAY BE THE END OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY
JUST SOUTH OF I80 AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW E-W ORIENTED
BAND OF STRATUS. HOLES IN THE CLOUDS HAVE OPENED UP NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL IA AN OVER NORTHERN MO/FAR SOUTHERN IA
IN THE WARM SECTOR. NAM AND RUC SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF
MOISTURE LADEN LOW LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT WARM
LAYER WITH THE INVERSION BASED AROUND H8 THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVEL CAPPED. HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. CAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO
1000J/KG PLUS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON SO MENTION
TSRA THERE AND JUST SHRA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS WILL
HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WHERE THE STRATUS WILL LIMIT HIGHS FURTHER NORTH WHERE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IA TO WARM MORE THAN
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I80 IN EASTERN IA AND WEST
CENTRAL IL LATE THE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. AS
OF LATE MORNING IFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WITH MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM EAST
CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST CIGS IMPROVING SOME FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL. WITH THE LOW LEVELS LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
LOWEST VSBYS OCCURRING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
PRECIP IN THE TAFS SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY COVERAGE
IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AT ALL.
DLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
408 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE, AREAS OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH FA, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PUSH TO NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND HAYS LINE
BY THIS MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF
A RE-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FROM SCOTT TO RUSH COUNTY AND NORTH. THIS
AREA IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR DENSE FOG. THEN THE
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NEAR A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH
OF DODGE CITY TO A LACROSSE LINE BY 4 TO 7 PM. HAVE COOLED DAYTIME
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN FROM HITTING 90 ALONG OUR BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE STRONGEST, WITH THE
DEEPEST MIXING, FROM JOHNSON CITY TO ULYSSES TO PRATT AND SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TO THE
AREA JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN
RETREAT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO
35 MPH AND GUSTY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
HAYS BY 9 PM, THEN THROUGH GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS MEDICINE LODGE BY 3 AM. THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SO
THE CHANCES FOR PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WAKEENEY TO HAYS
AREA AND SOUTH TO LARNED AND MEDICINE LODGE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30
POP TO COVER. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING AS THE REGION OF
HIGHER CAPE SHIFTS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NOT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST FA FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THURSDAY:
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A TRAVERSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND MAGNITUDES IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGHER
850 HPA WINDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND AS SUBSIDENCE & HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER
50S DEG F AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A 400
HPA POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS AS THE BEST FORCING/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
NW OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE SILENT POPS NOW AND GO WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. EVEN THE 00Z GFS HAS TONED DOWN ON QPF AND KEEPS
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS COLORADO.
FRIDAY:
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING.
HAVE GONE WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A PASSING 90-100 KT 250 HPA JET STREAK. IN ADDITION, WINDS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 10 KT FRIDAY MORNING AND RESULTANT MIXING COULD PREVENT
TEMPS FOR RADIATING DOWN FURTHER. WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEG F
FOR NOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S DEG F AS COOL MID TO LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT FOR A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF MOS
VERSUS THE WARMER ALLBLEND SOLUTION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY SO THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
CONCERN IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 50S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF A LEE SURFACE TROF/RESULTANT WAA PATTERN.
EXPECT HIGHS TO INCREASE TO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-15KT
THIS MORNING IN THE KGCK TO KDDC AREA AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND KHYS. COULD HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS FOR A TIME IN THE KHYS
AREA BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH HAYS TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY. WINDS AT KGCK AND
KDDC MAY GO VARIABLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 13-16Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RAPIDLY SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES AROUND 02Z AT KHYS, O4Z AT KGCK, AND 05Z AT KDDC AS A
FIRST GUESS OF THE NAM12. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 20-35KT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. THERE
COULD ALSO BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE KHYS AREA BETWEEN
02-06Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 43 53 30 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 79 39 52 29 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 87 39 52 28 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 87 40 53 29 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 73 40 52 29 / 0 30 10 10
P28 87 50 56 34 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
336 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE, AREAS OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH FA, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PUSH TO NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND HAYS LINE
BY THIS MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF
A RE-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FROM SCOTT TO RUSH COUNTY AND NORTH. THIS
AREA IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR DENSE FOG. THEN THE
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NEAR A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH
OF DODGE CITY TO A LACROSSE LINE BY 4 TO 7 PM. HAVE COOLED DAYTIME
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN FROM HITTING 90 ALONG OUR BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE STRONGEST, WITH THE
DEEPEST MIXING, FROM JOHNSON CITY TO ULYSSES TO PRATT AND SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TO THE
AREA JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN
RETREAT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO
35 MPH AND GUSTY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
HAYS BY 9 PM, THEN THROUGH GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS MEDICINE LODGE BY 3 AM. THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SO
THE CHANCES FOR PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WAKEENEY TO HAYS
AREA AND SOUTH TO LARNED AND MEDICINE LODGE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30
POP TO COVER. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING AS THE REGION OF
HIGHER CAPE SHIFTS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NOT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST FA FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT. THE MODELS SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AND HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
HAYS/LACROSSE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT REAL
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION AS FAIRLY WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
BE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING TO STABLE CONDITIONS. THE GOING
FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS
FOR NOW.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST ONE AND
SHOULD BE PASSING OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WON`T
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE DRY COOL IN PLACE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD PLUMMET WELL DOWN INTO THE MID
20S WITH A HARD FREEZE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-15KT
THIS MORNING IN THE KGCK TO KDDC AREA AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND KHYS. COULD HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS FOR A TIME IN THE KHYS
AREA BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH HAYS TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY. WINDS AT KGCK AND
KDDC MAY GO VARIABLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 13-16Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RAPIDLY SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES AROUND 02Z AT KHYS, O4Z AT KGCK, AND 05Z AT KDDC AS A
FIRST GUESS OF THE NAM12. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 20-35KT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. THERE
COULD ALSO BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE KHYS AREA BETWEEN
02-06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
WILL KEEP A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STANTON, GRANT, MORTON, AND
STEVENS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MIXDOWN WINDS NEAR
25 TO 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE OTHER COUNTIES OF HAMILTON TO FINNEY AND
SOUTH TO HASKELL AND SEWARD COUNTIES THAT WERE IN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL FOR LESS WINDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 43 53 30 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 79 39 52 29 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 87 39 52 28 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 87 40 53 29 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 73 40 52 29 / 0 30 10 10
P28 87 50 56 34 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S., MARKED BY A STRONG 100 KNOT
JET STREAK EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SHARP TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST, WHILE
REMNANT ENERGY OF HURRICANE PAUL EVIDENT IN THE 500-300MB LAYER
WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WAS EVIDENT NEAR THE SURFACE. A SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT HAD DEVELOPED FROM NEAR MANHATTAN TO WOODWARD, OK
AND TO JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAD SETTLED IN OVER WESTERN
KANSAS ON LIGHT NORTH WINDS. DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE EARLIER IN THE MORNING, BUT HAD BEGUN TO IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 15 UTC THIS MORNING. A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE
MOIST LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 12 UTC KDDC SOUNDING.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
TEMPERATURES WERE TRIMMED DRAMATICALLY (HEDGED TOWARD THE 16Z RAPID
REFRESH FORECAST) FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STRATUS HAS HELD IN
PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
MORNING. THIS DID APPEAR REASONABLE ON 12 UTC NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS THE MOIST DEPTH APPEARED TO WORK AGAINST THE
INSOLATION IN THE LATE MORNING. THE RELATIVE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
STRATUS DECK STILL SUGGESTS SUN EROSION OF THE LAYER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND MORE SUN BY AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD MAY COME AND GO FOR WARMING
ANYWHERE NEAR THE EARLIER EXPECTED HIGHS. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL BIASED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70. LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN AERIAL COVERAGE PER THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL AND KHYS IS ALREADY
IN THE LOW STRATUS/IFR CONDITIONS. FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WILL
PUT MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z NAM/ARW-NMM MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH
KEEPS CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER STRATUS AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE ARW-NMM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEPS KHYS
IN THE 50S DEG F. THE NAM SUGGESTS MID 60S DEG F. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NEW 00Z DATA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
70 DEG F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS
EVENTUALLY FORECAST. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
BUT WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOR NOW AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
HRRR MODEL IS BEING A BIT AGGRESSIVE ON FORECAST VISIBILITIES FOR THE
CURRENT HOUR. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ALONG I-70 BUT NOT SURE
OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE THICK ENOUGH AS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND
2000 FEET INSTEAD OF THE 3000 FEET IDEAL THICKNESS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE 80S DEG ARE LIKELY AS A NARROW WEDGE OF WARMER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
/DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE FORECAST.
BY THIS EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AS FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN.
PATCHY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS
/MOS GUIDANCE/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS REALLY THE COLD SNAP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. IN THE NEARER TERM, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY
WARM WITH THE BORDER COUNTIES ALONG OKLAHOMA REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, WITH THE LOW END OF THE MID 80S FROM THE SYRACUSE TO HAYS
AREAS. SINCE WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MERGES WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DIP AND DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE 16-17 PERCENT RANGE. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 18Z TO 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH THE SURFACE RH BEING MARGINAL. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH TOWARD THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SOME 20 TO
30 DEGREES FROM THE DAY BEFORE (WED). HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN OUR NORTH NEAR SYRACUSE, SCOTT CITY AND
WAKEENEY TO THE MID 60S IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DOWN HILL TREND THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH A SLIM AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
JOHNSON CITY FALLING TO THE MID 30S, WITH THE STAFFORD, PRATT AND
BARBER COUNTIES ONLY COOLING TO THE MID 50S. COLD AIR WILL DROP
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SPILL INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST, WITH THE SOUTHEAST AREAS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE JUST
REACHING AROUND 50F DEGREES. A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY, AND SMALL 17 TO 23 PERCENT POPS WERE PUT IN
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BY THE CREXTENDFCST PROCEDURE. HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER
THESE SLIGHT POPS TO 14 TO 17 PERCENT, AND GO WITH A PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MY DOUBTS IF
WE WILL GET ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES, SINCE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER US.
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BRING A HARD FREEZE TO
TO PARTS OF OUR CWA, BUT NOT ALL. FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT
HAD A HARD FREEZE (28F), THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA OF OUR NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL SEE THEIR FIRST HARD FREEZE, WITH LOWS IN
THE 26-28F DEGREE RANGE. IT MAY COME FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND
ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OTHER LOCAL AREAS. AT THIS TIME, THOSE AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A STAFFORD COUNTY TO MEADE COUNTY LINE MAY SEE SOME
FROST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S, BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT
EXPECTED THERE. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
IFR STRATUS HELD ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE TAF AREA FOR LONER
THAN INITIAL ANTICIPATED, AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY
AIRPORTS. THE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW, AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ERODE
VERY QUICKLY, BUT HAS LASTED LONGER THAN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATED. WITH THIS REASON WE WILL FORECAST THE STRATUS TO LAST
LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH GFS LAMP MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS, BUT
STILL WITH HIGH FORECASTER UNCERTAINTY. A SHORTWAVE TOUGH LIFTING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO AID SURFACE PRESSURE FALL AND BRING A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS OUT BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 47 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 50 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 48 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 52 88 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
P28 61 92 65 87 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061>063-074>076-084>086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUSSELL
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S., MARKED BY A STRONG 100 KNOT
JET STREAK EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SHARP TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST, WHILE
REMNANT ENERGY OF HURRICANE PAUL EVIDENT IN THE 500-300MB LAYER
WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WAS EVIDENT NEAR THE SURFACE. A SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT HAD DEVELOPED FROM NEAR MANHATTAN TO WOODWARD, OK
AND TO JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAD SETTLED IN OVER WESTERN
KANSAS ON LIGHT NORTH WINDS. DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE EARLIER IN THE MORNING, BUT HAD BEGUN TO IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 15 UTC THIS MORNING. A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE
MOIST LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 12 UTC KDDC SOUNDING.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
TEMPERATURES WERE TRIMMED DRAMATICALLY (HEDGED TOWARD THE 16Z RAPID
REFRESH FORECAST) FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STRATUS HAS HELD IN
PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
MORNING. THIS DID APPEAR REASONABLE ON 12 UTC NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS THE MOIST DEPTH APPEARED TO WORK AGAINST THE
INSOLATION IN THE LATE MORNING. THE RELATIVE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
STRATUS DECK STILL SUGGESTS SUN EROSION OF THE LAYER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND MORE SUN BY AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD MAY COME AND GO FOR WARMING
ANYWHERE NEAR THE EARLIER EXPECTED HIGHS. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL BIASED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70. LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN AERIAL COVERAGE PER THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL AND KHYS IS ALREADY
IN THE LOW STRATUS/IFR CONDITIONS. FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WILL
PUT MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z NAM/ARW-NMM MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH
KEEPS CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER STRATUS AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE ARW-NMM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEPS KHYS
IN THE 50S DEG F. THE NAM SUGGESTS MID 60S DEG F. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NEW 00Z DATA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
70 DEG F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS
EVENTUALLY FORECAST. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
BUT WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOR NOW AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
HRRR MODEL IS BEING A BIT AGGRESSIVE ON FORECAST VISIBILITIES FOR THE
CURRENT HOUR. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ALONG I-70 BUT NOT SURE
OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE THICK ENOUGH AS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND
2000 FEET INSTEAD OF THE 3000 FEET IDEAL THICKNESS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE 80S DEG ARE LIKELY AS A NARROW WEDGE OF WARMER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
/DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE FORECAST.
BY THIS EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AS FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN.
PATCHY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS
/MOS GUIDANCE/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FA FROM NESS CITY TO DODGE
CITY AND WEST, CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST FA FROM HAYS TO
COLDWATER AND EAST WITH A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE ROCKIES AND 4 CORNERS REGION. A
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE,
THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME SITUATION
REPEATS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND THEN 20 TO
30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW
15 TO 20 PERCENT BOTH AFTERNOONS, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
OUT FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE NOT AS
STRONG WILL NOT GO WITH A WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY MILD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH BREEZES AT 10
TO 20 MPH.
THEN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WITH GOOD MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LAYER WIND SHEAR WITH FORECAST
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE AREA FROM HAYS SOUTH TO GREENSBURG AND
COLDWATER AND EAST HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING LASTLY THROUGH MEDICINE LODGE BY 7
AM THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE MID 50S EAST FROM SAINT JOHN TO
MEDICINE LODGE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH AS MUCH COLDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME MIXING.
FOR FRIDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE GFS LOOKS WAY
OVER SATURATED AND IS A TYPICAL MODEL BIAS WHILE THE NEW ECMWF LOOK
VERY DRY THROUGH THE LAYER. WILL GO AHEAD AND HEDGE TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND TAKE POPS DOWN TO SILENT. A STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR THE WEEKEND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
20`S. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE AGAIN ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S THEN WARM INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHARP RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON SUNDAY MORNING THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT AGAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE OR KILLING FREEZE ON BOTH EARLY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
IFR STRATUS HELD ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE TAF AREA FOR LONER
THAN INITIAL ANTICIPATED, AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY
AIRPORTS. THE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW, AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ERODE
VERY QUICKLY, BUT HAS LASTED LONGER THAN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATED. WITH THIS REASON WE WILL FORECAST THE STRATUS TO LAST
LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH GFS LAMP MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS, BUT
STILL WITH HIGH FORECASTER UNCERTAINTY. A SHORTWAVE TOUGH LIFTING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO AID SURFACE PRESSURE FALL AND BRING A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS OUT BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 52 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 62 47 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 71 50 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 68 48 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 63 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUSSELL
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1246 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
...UPDATED FOR TRENDS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S., MARKED BY A STRONG 100 KNOT
JET STREAK EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SHARP TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST, WHILE
REMNANT ENERGY OF HURRICANE PAUL EVIDENT IN THE 500-300MB LAYER
WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WAS EVIDENT NEAR THE SURFACE. A SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT HAD DEVELOPED FROM NEAR MANHATTAN TO WOODWARD, OK
AND TO JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAD SETTLED IN OVER WESTERN
KANSAS ON LIGHT NORTH WINDS. DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE EARLIER IN THE MORNING, BUT HAD BEGUN TO IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 15 UTC THIS MORNING. A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE
MOIST LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 12 UTC KDDC SOUNDING.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
TEMPERATURES WERE TRIMMED DRAMATICALLY (HEDGED TOWARD THE 16Z RAPID
REFRESH FORECAST) FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STRATUS HAS HELD IN
PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
MORNING. THIS DID APPEAR REASONABLE ON 12 UTC NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS THE MOIST DEPTH APPEARED TO WORK AGAINST THE
INSOLATION IN THE LATE MORNING. THE RELATIVE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
STRATUS DECK STILL SUGGESTS SUN EROSION OF THE LAYER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND MORE SUN BY AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD MAY COME AND GO FOR WARMING
ANYWHERE NEAR THE EARLIER EXPECTED HIGHS. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL BIASED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70. LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN AERIAL COVERAGE PER THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL AND KHYS IS ALREADY
IN THE LOW STRATUS/IFR CONDITIONS. FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WILL
PUT MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z NAM/ARW-NMM MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH
KEEPS CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER STRATUS AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE ARW-NMM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEPS KHYS
IN THE 50S DEG F. THE NAM SUGGESTS MID 60S DEG F. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NEW 00Z DATA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
70 DEG F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS
EVENTUALLY FORECAST. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
BUT WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOR NOW AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
HRRR MODEL IS BEING A BIT AGGRESSIVE ON FORECAST VISIBILITIES FOR THE
CURRENT HOUR. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ALONG I-70 BUT NOT SURE
OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE THICK ENOUGH AS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND
2000 FEET INSTEAD OF THE 3000 FEET IDEAL THICKNESS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE 80S DEG ARE LIKELY AS A NARROW WEDGE OF WARMER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
/DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE FORECAST.
BY THIS EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AS FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN.
PATCHY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS
/MOS GUIDANCE/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FA FROM NESS CITY TO DODGE
CITY AND WEST, CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST FA FROM HAYS TO
COLDWATER AND EAST WITH A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE ROCKIES AND 4 CORNERS REGION. A
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE,
THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME SITUATION
REPEATS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND THEN 20 TO
30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW
15 TO 20 PERCENT BOTH AFTERNOONS, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
OUT FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE NOT AS
STRONG WILL NOT GO WITH A WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY MILD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH BREEZES AT 10
TO 20 MPH.
THEN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WITH GOOD MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LAYER WIND SHEAR WITH FORECAST
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE AREA FROM HAYS SOUTH TO GREENSBURG AND
COLDWATER AND EAST HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING LASTLY THROUGH MEDICINE LODGE BY 7
AM THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE MID 50S EAST FROM SAINT JOHN TO
MEDICINE LODGE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH AS MUCH COLDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME MIXING.
FOR FRIDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE GFS LOOKS WAY
OVER SATURATED AND IS A TYPICAL MODEL BIAS WHILE THE NEW ECMWF LOOK
VERY DRY THROUGH THE LAYER. WILL GO AHEAD AND HEDGE TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND TAKE POPS DOWN TO SILENT. A STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR THE WEEKEND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
20`S. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE AGAIN ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S THEN WARM INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHARP RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON SUNDAY MORNING THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT AGAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE OR KILLING FREEZE ON BOTH EARLY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 14Z AT KDDC AND KGCK AND
AND MAINLY LOW CIGS THROUGH 06Z AT KHYS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, THEN LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT, LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURNING WARM FROM AFTER
06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 52 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 62 47 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 71 50 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 68 48 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 63 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUSSELL
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
606 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
THE 22.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED JET LEVEL WINDS AROUND 100 KT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET WAS OBSERVED
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM, THIS
FLOW TURNED NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE
TROF WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER TROF WAS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND
-33 TO -36 DEG C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO DISTURBANCES. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE
WAS AN OPEN TROF MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW/SONORA. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT 700 AND 850 HPA, THE WARM PLUME STILL PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA/EASTERN KANSAS. A DOWNSLOPE WARM AND DRY PLUME WAS VERY
OBVIOUS PER THE KDDC RAOB. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA
TO WESTERN KANSAS. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S DEG F AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY FROM TEXAS TO IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70. LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN AERIAL COVERAGE PER THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL AND KHYS IS ALREADY
IN THE LOW STRATUS/IFR CONDITIONS. FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WILL
PUT MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z NAM/ARW-NMM MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH
KEEPS CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER STRATUS AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE ARW-NMM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEPS KHYS
IN THE 50S DEG F. THE NAM SUGGESTS MID 60S DEG F. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NEW 00Z DATA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
70 DEG F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS
EVENTUALLY FORECAST. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
BUT WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOR NOW AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
HRRR MODEL IS BEING A BIT AGGRESSIVE ON FORECAST VISIBILITIES FOR THE
CURRENT HOUR. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ALONG I-70 BUT NOT SURE
OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE THICK ENOUGH AS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND
2000 FEET INSTEAD OF THE 3000 FEET IDEAL THICKNESS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE 80S DEG ARE LIKELY AS A NARROW WEDGE OF WARMER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
/DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE FORECAST.
BY THIS EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AS FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN.
PATCHY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS
/MOS GUIDANCE/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FA FROM NESS CITY TO DODGE
CITY AND WEST, CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST FA FROM HAYS TO
COLDWATER AND EAST WITH A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE ROCKIES AND 4 CORNERS REGION. A
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE,
THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME SITUATION
REPEATS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND THEN 20 TO
30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW
15 TO 20 PERCENT BOTH AFTERNOONS, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
OUT FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE NOT AS
STRONG WILL NOT GO WITH A WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY MILD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH BREEZES AT 10
TO 20 MPH.
THEN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WITH GOOD MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LAYER WIND SHEAR WITH FORECAST
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE AREA FROM HAYS SOUTH TO GREENSBURG AND
COLDWATER AND EAST HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING LASTLY THROUGH MEDICINE LODGE BY 7
AM THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE MID 50S EAST FROM SAINT JOHN TO
MEDICINE LODGE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH AS MUCH COLDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME MIXING.
FOR FRIDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE GFS LOOKS WAY
OVER SATURATED AND IS A TYPICAL MODEL BIAS WHILE THE NEW ECMWF LOOK
VERY DRY THROUGH THE LAYER. WILL GO AHEAD AND HEDGE TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND TAKE POPS DOWN TO SILENT. A STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR THE WEEKEND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
20`S. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE AGAIN ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S THEN WARM INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHARP RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON SUNDAY MORNING THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT AGAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE OR KILLING FREEZE ON BOTH EARLY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 14Z AT KDDC AND KGCK AND
AND MAINLY LOW CIGS THROUGH 06Z AT KHYS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, THEN LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT, LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURNING WARM FROM AFTER
06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 52 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 74 47 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 78 50 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 79 48 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
140 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW ALF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS BTWN DEEP TROF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND UPR RDG
OVER ERN NAMERICA. THERE IS AN AREA OF SHRA/SOME TS OVER MAINLY THE
WRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD TO THE N OF H85
WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST
SHOWN ON THE 300K SFC IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP H85-5 LAPSE RATES
SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB. SMALL HAIL FELL FM A FEW OF THE STRONGER
CELLS OVER THE WRN CWA/NW WI EARLIER. THE E HALF OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
MAINLY PCPN FREE WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 12Z
APX RAOB. EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TS OVER SCNTRL
WI...AREAS TO THE SW OF H85 WARM FNT ARE GENERALLY DRY WITH STRONG
CAP SHOWN ON THE 12Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA RAOB DOMINATING. HOWEVER...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND FOG WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR/SFC
DEWPTS AN UNSEASONABLY HI 55 TO 60.
LATE THIS AFTN...AS AREA OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC SUPPORTING THE NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE WRN CWA
EARLY THIS AFTN SHIFTS TO THE N...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS S-N OVER
THE W. WITH ABSENCE OF UPR SUPPORT FOR PCPN OVER THE E HALF...
EXPECT ONLY ISOLD-SCT -SHRA IN THIS AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT
BE THE SCNTRL...WHERE AREA OF SHRA NOW OVER WI AND DRIFTING TO THE
NE WILL BRUSH THE AREA.
TONIGHT...AS MAIN SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVG NEWD WELL TO THE W
LIFTS INTO SCNTRL CAN...UPR HGTS ARE FCST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC LIFTING TO THE N AND AWAY FM
UPR MI. WITH LACK OF DYANMIC SUPPORT AND FCST SDNGS HINTING AT MID
LVL DRYING/CAPPING AS SHOWN ON THE ABERDEEN RAOB...SUSPECT THERE WL
BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT -SHRA WITH THE GREATER POPS THIS EVNG
OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO NCNTRL LK SUP. OTRW...INFLUX OF LLVL MSTR
WITH FLOW VEERING MORE TO THE S WL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL CWA WITH UPSLOPE SE VEERING S FLOW. FOG IN
THIS AREA MIGHT BECOME DENSE. EXPECT LTL DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL MSTR.
WED...COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE THRU CNTRL
CANADA WL LIMP INTO THE WRN ZNS IN THE MRNG. SINCE THERE WL BE LTL
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AT THAT TIME...EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCT -SHRA TO ACCOMPANY ITS ARRIVAL. HOWEVER...APRCH OF MORE
SGNFT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF IN THE AFTN WL SUPPORT HIER
POPS THERE IN THE AFTN...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE E TOWARD HIER H5
HGTS AND AWAY FM INCOMING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CVNGC/FGEN/MSTR CNVGC
ALONG BNDRY. STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES SUPPORT MENTION OF TS. AREAS OF
FOG WL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL...TENDED TO LOWER GOING FCST
MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED FOG/CLD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST /STRETCHING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY...WITH A WELL FORECASTED LOW
PUSHING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM AROUND LAKE
WINNIPEG AT 00Z FRIDAY TO S HUDSON BAY FRIDAY...BEFORE EJECTING N
SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHING W TO E DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE
ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH N TX AT 06Z
THURSDAY DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND INTO NE ONTARIO BY 00Z FRIDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE W HALF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN CENTRAL AND E THURSDAY. THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN
/OVER AN INCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/ LOOKS
TO HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM IWD
THROUGH CRYSTAL FALLS...AND N THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE
FAR EAST THIRD OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO RECEIVE HALF AN INCH BY
THE TIME IT IS DONE. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN OVER INTERIOR W
LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN.
THE 23/00Z CANADIAN BRINGS A SECONDARY WAVE THAT LINGERED OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG AT 06Z FRIDAY...SLOWLY PUSHING IT TO JUST NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND STILL JUST N OF THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE A TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESIDE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CANADIAN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
TOO STRONG/DEEP WITH THE FEATURE /AT LEAST A LITTLE TOO EARLY/. AS A
RESULT...WITH LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...AND UTILIZE A LITTLE LESS
OF THE CANADIAN OUTPUT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON.
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SFC HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE W. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT WAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. A MIX OF RAIN AND MOSTLY SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH ONSHORE ENHANCEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND -9C. LOOKING AT
THE FCST MODELS CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AS
AN ADDITIONAL 500MB LOW NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE RESULT WOULD BE BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SINKS/WRAPS UP A LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC...BUT WILL LIMIT THE QUICKER
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN LOW NEARING THE CWA ON DAY 6/7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTING N...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. FAVORABLE
SE-S UPSLOPE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO LIFR PREVAILING AT KSAW THRU THE
MORNING. AT KCMX...AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE OR S OVERNIGHT...
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HURON MTNS SHOULD LEAD TO CIGS AT KCMX RISING TO
MVFR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...COULD SEE CIGS AT KIWD ALSO
RISE TO MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND.
WEAKENING WINDS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW PRES TROF THIS MORNING SHOULD
RESULT IN LIFR CIGS AGAIN SETTING IN AT KIWD/KCMX. DEVELOPING WAVE
OF LOW PRES LIFTING N ALONG TROF WILL BRING SHRA INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THIS FCST PERIOD...PROLONGING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
EXPECT E WINDS UP TO 30 KTS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCES THESE WINDS OVER THE
NCENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE E HALF
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE NE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
LAKE ON WED...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS EVEN OVER THE E HALF.
SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE W FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA. A
NEW LOW WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW ALF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS BTWN DEEP TROF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND UPR RDG
OVER ERN NAMERICA. THERE IS AN AREA OF SHRA/SOME TS OVER MAINLY THE
WRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD TO THE N OF H85
WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST
SHOWN ON THE 300K SFC IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP H85-5 LAPSE RATES
SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB. SMALL HAIL FELL FM A FEW OF THE STRONGER
CELLS OVER THE WRN CWA/NW WI EARLIER. THE E HALF OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
MAINLY PCPN FREE WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 12Z
APX RAOB. EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TS OVER SCNTRL
WI...AREAS TO THE SW OF H85 WARM FNT ARE GENERALLY DRY WITH STRONG
CAP SHOWN ON THE 12Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA RAOB DOMINATING. HOWEVER...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND FOG WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR/SFC
DEWPTS AN UNSEASONABLY HI 55 TO 60.
LATE THIS AFTN...AS AREA OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC SUPPORTING THE NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE WRN CWA
EARLY THIS AFTN SHIFTS TO THE N...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS S-N OVER
THE W. WITH ABSENCE OF UPR SUPPORT FOR PCPN OVER THE E HALF...
EXPECT ONLY ISOLD-SCT -SHRA IN THIS AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT
BE THE SCNTRL...WHERE AREA OF SHRA NOW OVER WI AND DRIFTING TO THE
NE WILL BRUSH THE AREA.
TONIGHT...AS MAIN SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVG NEWD WELL TO THE W
LIFTS INTO SCNTRL CAN...UPR HGTS ARE FCST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC LIFTING TO THE N AND AWAY FM
UPR MI. WITH LACK OF DYANMIC SUPPORT AND FCST SDNGS HINTING AT MID
LVL DRYING/CAPPING AS SHOWN ON THE ABERDEEN RAOB...SUSPECT THERE WL
BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT -SHRA WITH THE GREATER POPS THIS EVNG
OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO NCNTRL LK SUP. OTRW...INFLUX OF LLVL MSTR
WITH FLOW VEERING MORE TO THE S WL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL CWA WITH UPSLOPE SE VEERING S FLOW. FOG IN
THIS AREA MIGHT BECOME DENSE. EXPECT LTL DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL MSTR.
WED...COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE THRU CNTRL
CANADA WL LIMP INTO THE WRN ZNS IN THE MRNG. SINCE THERE WL BE LTL
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AT THAT TIME...EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCT -SHRA TO ACCOMPANY ITS ARRIVAL. HOWEVER...APRCH OF MORE
SGNFT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF IN THE AFTN WL SUPPORT HIER
POPS THERE IN THE AFTN...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE E TOWARD HIER H5
HGTS AND AWAY FM INCOMING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CVNGC/FGEN/MSTR CNVGC
ALONG BNDRY. STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES SUPPORT MENTION OF TS. AREAS OF
FOG WL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL...TENDED TO LOWER GOING FCST
MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED FOG/CLD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST /STRETCHING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY...WITH A WELL FORECASTED LOW
PUSHING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM AROUND LAKE
WINNIPEG AT 00Z FRIDAY TO S HUDSON BAY FRIDAY...BEFORE EJECTING N
SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHING W TO E DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE
ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH N TX AT 06Z
THURSDAY DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND INTO NE ONTARIO BY 00Z FRIDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE W HALF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN CENTRAL AND E THURSDAY. THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN
/OVER AN INCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/ LOOKS
TO HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM IWD
THROUGH CRYSTAL FALLS...AND N THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE
FAR EAST THIRD OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO RECEIVE HALF AN INCH BY
THE TIME IT IS DONE. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN OVER INTERIOR W
LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN.
THE 23/00Z CANADIAN BRINGS A SECONDARY WAVE THAT LINGERED OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG AT 06Z FRIDAY...SLOWLY PUSHING IT TO JUST NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND STILL JUST N OF THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE A TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESIDE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CANADIAN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
TOO STRONG/DEEP WITH THE FEATURE /AT LEAST A LITTLE TOO EARLY/. AS A
RESULT...WITH LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...AND UTILIZE A LITTLE LESS
OF THE CANADIAN OUTPUT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON.
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SFC HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE W. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT WAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. A MIX OF RAIN AND MOSTLY SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH ONSHORE ENHANCEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND -9C. LOOKING AT
THE FCST MODELS CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AS
AN ADDITIONAL 500MB LOW NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE RESULT WOULD BE BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SINKS/WRAPS UP A LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC...BUT WILL LIMIT THE QUICKER
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN LOW NEARING THE CWA ON DAY 6/7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTING N...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. FAVORABLE
SE-S UPSLOPE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO LIFR PREVAILING AT KSAW THRU WED
MORNING. AT KCMX...AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE TONIGHT...
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HURON MTNS MAY LEAD TO CIGS AT KCMX RISING TO
MVFR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...COULD SEE CIGS AT KIWD ALSO
RISE TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND.
WEAKENING WINDS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW PRES TROF WED MORNING SHOULD
RESULT IN LIFR CIGS AGAIN SETTING IN AT KIWD/KCMX. DEVELOPING WAVE
OF LOW PRES LIFTING N ALONG FRONT SHOULD BRING SHRA INTO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND INTO WED NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
EXPECT E WINDS UP TO 30 KTS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCES THESE WINDS OVER THE
NCENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE E HALF
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE NE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
LAKE ON WED...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS EVEN OVER THE E HALF.
SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE W FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA. A
NEW LOW WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PUEBLO CO
957 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. MOST OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING HAVE SHOWED WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LA VETA PASS REGION WHERE
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER 50 MPH. LATEST MODEL AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL JET EDGING EASTWARD
INTO COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
SEE TRAPPED WAVES IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WRF CROSS
SECTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES ARE INDICATING WINDS STARTING
TO DUCT BACK TO THE SURFACE AFTER 18Z WITH 60 KT FLOW INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE LEE SLOPES. THE WRF HAS THIS DUCTING OF
STRONG WINDS THROUGH AROUND 01Z WHEN THE MAIN JET CORE ELIMINATES
THE CRITICAL LAYER. FEEL WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP BY NOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THIS REGION
WHERE GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER 60
MPH ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THIS
AREA WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS FURTHER NORTH ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATE THAT MOSTLY BRUTE FORCE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRES...WET MOUNTAINS AND VALLEY
AND LEE SLOPES NEAR THE WETMORE AREA. WINDS WILL GUST IN THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT
STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL DUCT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FEEL
THAT THIS AREA COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME. EXTREME CAUTION IS ALSO ADVISED HERE AS WELL GIVEN THE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOZLEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WET MTS THOUGH HAVE
KEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH OBS STILL
INDICATING WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH AND MODELS INDICATING H7
WINDS OF 50 KTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 16Z. FRONT HAS MADE
IT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING INTACT...HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODELS
ARE CORRECT...MAY NOT SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS OTERO COUNTY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT
MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS
CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF A TRINIDAD TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. BRIEF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH RED CREEK RAWS INDICATING THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH LAST EVENING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SW WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN MTS WITH KPUX RADAR STILL INDICATING A HIGH WIND SIGNATURE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY...00Z MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS FRONT BUT 06Z AND
HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATING FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK
NORTH AND EAST WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AHEAD SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH MT WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND HAVE KEPT HIGH
WIND WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 9AM ACROSS THE WET MTS...THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR AND HAVE CANCELED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. EXPECTING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SOUTHERN TIER ZONES ALONG THE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BORDER AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING
IN PLACE FROM NOON TIL 7PM FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR BENT...PROWERS AND CROWLEY COUNTIES WITH THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF GREAT
BASIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE STATE
THIS EVENING WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO HIT THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-40 MPH AND
MUCH COOLER AIR TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT ALONG WITH
SOME GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION. -MW
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOME MORE UPSLOPE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON. AREA WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO BY THU EVENING. EXPECT
-SHRA/-SHSN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AS UPSLOPE DEEPENS
AND LIFT INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COLD AREA-WIDE...THOUGH
AGAIN MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD FOR KCOS AND KPUB. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS...THOUGH WEAK SURFACE/MID LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL TEMPER SNOW
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. STILL APPEARS BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 6 PLUS INCHES BY MIDDAY FRI. MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HERE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH WARM GROUND MAY LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMS SOMEWHAT. REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS...WHILE PLAINS SEE ONLY SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY...AND
EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES/LIGHT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH MANY AREAS STAYING WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF FREEZING.
ONCE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA FRIDAY...WEATHER BECOMES VERY
QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO WARMER WESTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW/MID LEVELS WARM ONLY
SLOWLY UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DEVELOPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES WARMER AIR
BACK INTO THE STATE.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WITH NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BEHIND SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP AT COS AND ALS LATE
THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS AT
PUB LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS
MORNINGS FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO HIT THE PALMER DVD AND COS BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AT
COS AFT 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ074-075-087-
088.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-225-
228>230-232-233-237.
&&
$$
88/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PUEBLO CO
736 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WET MTS THOUGH HAVE
KEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH OBS STILL
INDICATING WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH AND MODELS INDICATING H7
WINDS OF 50 KTS SLOWLY DIMININISHING THROUGH 16Z. FRONT HAS MADE
IT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
CRITCIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING INTACT...HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODELS
ARE CORRECT...MAY NOT SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS OTERO COUNTY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT
MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS
CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF A TRINIDAD TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. BRIEF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH RED CREEK RAWS INDICATING THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH LAST EVENING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SW WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN MTS WITH KPUX RADAR STILL INDICATING A HIGH WIND SIGNATURE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY...00Z MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS FRONT BUT 06Z AND
HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATING FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK
NORTH AND EAST WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AHEAD SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH MT WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND HAVE KEPT HIGH
WIND WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 9AM ACROSS THE WET MTS...THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR AND HAVE CANCELED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. EXPECTING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SOUTHERN TIER ZONES ALONG THE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BORDER AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING
IN PLACE FROM NOON TIL 7PM FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR BENT...PROWERS AND CROWLEY COUNTIES WITH THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF GREAT
BASIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE STATE
THIS EVENING WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO HIT THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-40 MPH AND
MUCH COOLER AIR TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT ALONG WITH
SOME GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION. -MW
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOME MORE UPSLOPE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON. AREA WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO BY THU EVENING. EXPECT
-SHRA/-SHSN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AS UPSLOPE DEEPENS
AND LIFT INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COLD AREA-WIDE...THOUGH
AGAIN MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD FOR KCOS AND KPUB. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS...THOUGH WEAK SURFACE/MID LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL TEMPER SNOW
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. STILL APPEARS BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 6 PLUS INCHES BY MIDDAY FRI. MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HERE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH WARM GROUND MAY LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMS SOMEWHAT. REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS...WHILE PLAINS SEE ONLY SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY...AND
EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES/LIGHT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH MANY AREAS STAYING WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF FREEZING.
ONCE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA FRIDAY...WEATHER BECOMES VERY
QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO WARMER WESTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW/MID LEVELS WARM ONLY
SLOWLY UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DEVELOPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES WARMER AIR
BACK INTO THE STATE.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WITH NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BEHIND SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP AT COS AND ALS LATE
THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS AT
PUB LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS
MORNINGS FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO HIT THE PALMER DVD AND COS BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AT
COS AFT 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ074-075-087-
088.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ222-225-228>230-232-233-237.
&&
$$
23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SPARKING UP SHOWERS
AHEAD OF IT. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE AREA
AROUND 1500 UTC. BASED ON THE RADAR COVERAGE AND THE TIMING
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SHOWER CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE TIMING AND COVERAGE IS MORE OR
LESS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
THE FOG HAS EASED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AS THE MID CLOUDS CUT OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE TOP OF
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS LEFT IN
PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY FOG IN
PLACE NOW.
SINCE THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LEFT IN THE GREAT LAKES LINK (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.30 INCHES IN THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
NEBULOUS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE CARRIED
THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY.
SHORT MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT (WHICH SHOULD STRETCH FROM DELAWARE THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON). MODIFIED MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW THAT THE INSTABILITY IS SHALLOW AT
BEST...AND FOR SOUTHERNMOST AREAS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TODAY.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS CAN FORM ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FAR AWAY...AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE GEOCAT IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOW STRATUS
STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. IN
THIS AREA...ANY SUNSHINE LOOKS DOUBTFUL...SO HIGH WERE BASED MAINLY
ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS NUMBERS.
FURTHER SOUTH...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KRDG-KPHL-KMJX LINE...AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THAT LINE...SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 12
CELSIUS COULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH FULL SUN. SINCE
FULL SUN LOOKS UNLIKELY...HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MOS BLEND LOOKS
OK...SINCE THE COLUMN IS WARM TO BEGIN WITH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHER AREAS AS WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIPPLE THROUGH THE RISING MID LEVEL FLOW...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE
EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD FORM IN PLACE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPREAD OUT TO JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS
(EXCEPT PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE. THE 0000 UTC GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...BUT EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE TOP OF THE INVERSION FOR
STRATUS. BASED ON THE ABOVE...ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH SHOULD
BECOME CLOUDY.
THE NEXT PROBLEM IS FOG AND DRIZZLE. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...WHERE THE FLOW IS MODESTLY
UPSLOPE. ELSEWHERE...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...BUT DENSITY IS
IN QUESTION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS COULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
TO COOL THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AND INDUCE DENSER FOG TO FORM.
FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...BUT NOT HIT IT TOO HARD.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT...SYNOPTICALLY...HAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST IS A FAVORED PATTERN FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE REASSESSED BY LATER SHIFTS.
THE LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY THE 0000 UTC GFS ALLOWS
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES. SINCE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE THE GFS TIMING...LOWS WERE BASED
MORE ON A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARDS. WITH MAINLY LIGHT
EAST WINDS OFF OF THE ATLANTIC, A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB MODEL TEMPS STILL YIELD
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH
THE LIGHT EAST FLOW, THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
FRIDAY, AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED. SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST AND ALSO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HAVE THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK OF SANDY, BUT SOME GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. STILL, OTHER
MODEL DATA RECURVES SANDY MORE SHARPLY AND TAKES THE SYSTEM MORE
EAST AND OUT TO SEA. IN COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD, WE HAVE MADE
SMALL CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED FCST. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
COME TO CLOSER AGREEMENT, ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE TO THIS
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, THE INTERACTION OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND THE TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. AS THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS
KTTN...WHICH NOW HAS AN IFR CEILING. THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IS
BEING PORTRAYED WELL BY SATELLITE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH KTTN WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL SITE THAT WILL BE AFFECT BY
THE STRATUS. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE STRATUS LOOKS TO LIFT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EASES BEFORE 1500 UTC.
OTHERWISE...THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD HAVE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST
THROUGH 1400 UTC...WITH A DECK NEAR 1000 FEET AS AN INDICATOR OF
POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS. IF THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY EXPAND...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 1000 UTC.
LOWER CLOUDS (IF THEY FORM) SHOULD TEND TO BREAK AFTER 1400-1500
UTC...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR KACY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND COME BACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER
0100 UTC THURSDAY. SINCE LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AFTER THIS TIME FOR MOST PLACES FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLDS TO START THE DAY, THEN
EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, A MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE FOG IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
SATURDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE AS THERE IS MUCH MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATER THIS MORNING
WILL EITHER CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA...OR PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE. THE NET EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST OCEAN WATERS NOT SEEING
THE SHIFT DURING THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS AS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
12 KNOTS TODAY.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE COAST FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WINDS
WILL SNAP TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND DIRECTION (NORTH NORTHEAST). THE
GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN ENOUGH LATE THIS EVENING TO ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SEAS PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO THE
DEVELOPING FETCH...SO WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LIMITS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WATERS IN
THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SUB-SCA CRITERIA. MARINE FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM SANDY AND ALSO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS
WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
SANDY, AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING
AS WELL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HAYES/KLINE
MARINE...HAYES/KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE, AREAS OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH FA, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PUSH TO NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND HAYS LINE
BY THIS MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF
A RE-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FROM SCOTT TO RUSH COUNTY AND NORTH. THIS
AREA IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR DENSE FOG. THEN THE
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NEAR A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH
OF DODGE CITY TO A LACROSSE LINE BY 4 TO 7 PM. HAVE COOLED DAYTIME
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN FROM HITTING 90 ALONG OUR BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE STRONGEST, WITH THE
DEEPEST MIXING, FROM JOHNSON CITY TO ULYSSES TO PRATT AND SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TO THE
AREA JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN
RETREAT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO
35 MPH AND GUSTY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
HAYS BY 9 PM, THEN THROUGH GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS MEDICINE LODGE BY 3 AM. THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SO
THE CHANCES FOR PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WAKEENEY TO HAYS
AREA AND SOUTH TO LARNED AND MEDICINE LODGE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30
POP TO COVER. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING AS THE REGION OF
HIGHER CAPE SHIFTS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NOT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST FA FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THURSDAY:
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A TRAVERSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND MAGNITUDES IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGHER
850 HPA WINDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND AS SUBSIDENCE & HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER
50S DEG F AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A 400
HPA POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS AS THE BEST FORCING/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
NW OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE SILENT POPS NOW AND GO WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. EVEN THE 00Z GFS HAS TONED DOWN ON QPF AND KEEPS
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS COLORADO.
FRIDAY:
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING.
HAVE GONE WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A PASSING 90-100 KT 250 HPA JET STREAK. IN ADDITION, WINDS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 10 KT FRIDAY MORNING AND RESULTANT MIXING COULD PREVENT
TEMPS FOR RADIATING DOWN FURTHER. WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEG F
FOR NOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S DEG F AS COOL MID TO LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT FOR A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF MOS
VERSUS THE WARMER ALLBLEND SOLUTION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY SO THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
CONCERN IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 50S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF A LEE SURFACE TROF/RESULTANT WAA PATTERN.
EXPECT HIGHS TO INCREASE TO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KGCK/KDDC. LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR KHYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FG THIS MORNING. N WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KT LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 43 53 30 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 79 39 52 29 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 87 39 52 28 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 87 40 53 29 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 73 40 52 29 / 0 30 10 10
P28 87 50 56 34 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
838 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO ISOLATED EARLY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORT WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH THE 12Z KPIT SOUNDING 850 TEMP AT 11C.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALREADY
THIS MORNING.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY COMING TO AN END THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE WAVE AND
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND 850 TEMPS WARM TO 12-14C BY 00Z. WITH WAA AND
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE IN MIND...FORECAST TEMPS TODAY ARE
AROUND A DEGREE WARMER THAN LAMP GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE UPPER 70S IN EASTERN
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON DISTURBANCE
WILL SNUFF ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS BY THIS EVE...WITH WARM ADVECTION
PREVENTING A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. THAT REGIME
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT MAY SUPPORT
NEAR 80F TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...BUT FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON...ALL IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURE READINGS A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE THURSDAY NUMBERS.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT-PROGRESS SUGGESTS THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE GRADUALLY ESCALATED TO LIKELY NUMBERS FOR
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT...CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FALTERS AS MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT IN RESOLUTIONS OF THE COASTAL TROPICAL SYSTEM AND
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
FORECAST IS THUS BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS OF CHANCE POPS
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RIDGES BY
EARLY MONDAY. COLD ADVECTION UNDER THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN READINGS TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL PORTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TODAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND RETURN SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS.
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
709 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST REPORTS OF 1/4 VISIBILITY AT AUTOMATED
AWOS SITES NEAR STOCKTON...OSBORNE AND BELOIT KS...WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES TO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG HEADLINE
AND ALLOWED SEVERAL COUNTIES ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE TO DROP. THAT
BEING SAID...LOCALIZED VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO WELL UNDER 1 MILE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE. MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPS MAY STILL BE 10+ DEGREES TOO HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DESPITE EARLIER CUTS...AS MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO PERFORM INCREDIBLY POORLY ON DAYTIME TEMPS EVEN JUST
12-24 HOURS OUT THANKS TO DOMINANT STRATUS TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL TODAY...AS ALTHOUGH LIFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
24/12Z-24/16Z...IFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...AND INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHERLY AT 15-18KTS...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25KTS AT TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WEATHER CHALLENGES DURING THESE NEXT 72 HOURS OCCUR DURING THE
FIRST 24...AS LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY
TO WHAT SHOULD BE FAR THE BEST 6-12 HOUR WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL KS TO
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE...OR BARELY CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AROUND MITCHELL COUNTY KS. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
AREA AROUND 1003MB EXTENDED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHEAST CO. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WAS
EXPERIENCING STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH...EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SPEEDS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. JUST
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS...DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED 24
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THIS FAIRLY NARROW SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A BROAD LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY DUAL 500MB
CLOSED LOWS...ONE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUE IS DENSE FOG
TRENDS...AND THE HANDLING OF THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. EARLIER LET
SEVERAL OF THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES EXPIRE...AS INCREASING NORTH
WINDS HAD SUFFICIENTLY MIXED VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 1/4
MILE...AND A GLANCE AT LATEST OBS AND VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COULD PROBABLY BE EXPIRED
SHORTLY AS WELL...SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES PRIOR TO 1130Z.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GETS HUNG UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN CO...WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME PERIOD THROUGH
00Z...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE A MENTION OF GENERALLY NON-
MEASURABLE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2
CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 850MB...AND ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE
TELLTALE BLOTCHY LIGHT QPF FIELDS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE NAM/GFS. ANY
POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO FOCUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT EVEN FORM AT ALL BEFORE SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...AFTER BIG BUSTS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN MOST AREAS...YET ANOTHER VERY DICEY SETUP
PRESENTS ITSELF TODAY...AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHOULD DOMINATE ALL
BUT MAYBE A FEW FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY
LONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. BASED HEAVILY ON 00Z MET/00Z NAM
GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO SLASH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 7-10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...NOW AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S
NORTH...ONLY LOW-MID 50S TRI-CITIES AND A MIX OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. THAT BEING
SAID...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS THE LATEST HRRR VALID THROUGH
20Z SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS MAY STILL BE AIMED
WAY TOO WARM. IT MIGHT VERY WELL TURN OUT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA STRUGGLES TO RISE MORE THAN 5-8 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES
EARLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED STORMS COULD FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA...THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE A STEADY IGNITION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LIKELY 60-70 POPS WERE MAINTAINED. WITH THE 06Z NAM ADVERTISING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SEVERAL
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...HAVE
CONTINUED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL-STORM WORDING IN THE
HWO...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBS ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OR LONG-
LASTING STRONG/SEVERE EVENT THOUGH. TURNING TO OTHER OVERNIGHT
ELEMENTS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA IN PARTS OF VALLEY/DAWSON COUNTIES COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A
VERY LIGHT DUSTING...IF IT EVEN ACCUMULATES AT ALL...AS MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL FOCUS 50+ MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR A FORMAL WIND ADVISORY...A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE SURGE
OVERNIGHT COULD EASILY BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-30 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CHANGED LOW TEMPS LITTLE RANGING
FROM MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY AVERAGE UNDER
0.25-INCH...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM-ENHANCED
CORRIDORS.
TURNING TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP-FREE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...PULLED NEARLY ALL POPS FROM THE MORNING PERIOD...BUT
DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME FAR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A
QUICKLY DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHERWISE...THURS
WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-25 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS AS INCREASING SUNSHINE RESULTS IN INCREASED MIXING.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS WITH A CHILLY DAY IN STORE
RANGING MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. THURS NIGHT...A TRAILING
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AS CLOSE AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...BUT ONLY PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AS NORTH WINDS DECREASE. LOWERED LOWS
2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST...NOW
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WHICH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE SINCE OCT. 7TH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY FORECAST
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOISTURE-STARVED PASSING SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING A FEW BATCHES OF PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BREEZES
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA...AND ONLY MADE A VERY SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS TOPPING OUT NO
BETTER THAN MID-UPPER 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPS COULD REALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN SOME AREAS OR POSSIBLY BE HELD UP BY PLENTY OF
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY PLAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXITING THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
LATEST GLOBAL SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SWINGING THE AXIS
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
APPROXIMATELY 10C BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB FROM THE
40S ON SATURDAY...TO THE LOWER 60S IN SPOTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE CURRENT PATTERN PANS
OUT...CONTINUED PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR
HALLOWEEN...WHICH LIES JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING IN THE MID
60S NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ084>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE/SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
604 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL TODAY...AS ALTHOUGH LIFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
24/12Z-24/16Z...IFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...AND INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHERLY AT 15-18KTS...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WEATHER CHALLENGES DURING THESE NEXT 72 HOURS OCCUR DURING THE
FIRST 24...AS LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY
TO WHAT SHOULD BE FAR THE BEST 6-12 HOUR WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL KS TO
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE...OR BARELY CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AROUND MITCHELL COUNTY KS. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
AREA AROUND 1003MB EXTENDED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHEAST CO. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WAS
EXPERIENCING STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH...EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SPEEDS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. JUST
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS...DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED 24
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THIS FAIRLY NARROW SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A BROAD LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY DUAL 500MB
CLOSED LOWS...ONE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUE IS DENSE FOG
TRENDS...AND THE HANDLING OF THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. EARLIER LET
SEVERAL OF THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES EXPIRE...AS INCREASING NORTH
WINDS HAD SUFFICIENTLY MIXED VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 1/4
MILE...AND A GLANCE AT LATEST OBS AND VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COULD PROBABLY BE EXPIRED
SHORTLY AS WELL...SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES PRIOR TO 1130Z.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GETS HUNG UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN CO...WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME PERIOD THROUGH
00Z...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE A MENTION OF GENERALLY NON-
MEASURABLE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2
CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 850MB...AND ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE
TELLTALE BLOTCHY LIGHT QPF FIELDS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE NAM/GFS. ANY
POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO FOCUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT EVEN FORM AT ALL BEFORE SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...AFTER BIG BUSTS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN MOST AREAS...YET ANOTHER VERY DICEY SETUP
PRESENTS ITSELF TODAY...AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHOULD DOMINATE ALL
BUT MAYBE A FEW FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY
LONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. BASED HEAVILY ON 00Z MET/00Z NAM
GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO SLASH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 7-10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...NOW AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S
NORTH...ONLY LOW-MID 50S TRI-CITIES AND A MIX OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. THAT BEING
SAID...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS THE LATEST HRRR VALID THROUGH
20Z SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS MAY STILL BE AIMED
WAY TOO WARM. IT MIGHT VERY WELL TURN OUT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA STRUGGLES TO RISE MORE THAN 5-8 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES
EARLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED STORMS COULD FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA...THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE A STEADY IGNITION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LIKELY 60-70 POPS WERE MAINTAINED. WITH THE 06Z NAM ADVERTISING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SEVERAL
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...HAVE
CONTINUED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL-STORM WORDING IN THE
HWO...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBS ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OR LONG-
LASTING STRONG/SEVERE EVENT THOUGH. TURNING TO OTHER OVERNIGHT
ELEMENTS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA IN PARTS OF VALLEY/DAWSON COUNTIES COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A
VERY LIGHT DUSTING...IF IT EVEN ACCUMULATES AT ALL...AS MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL FOCUS 50+ MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR A FORMAL WIND ADVISORY...A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE SURGE
OVERNIGHT COULD EASILY BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-30 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CHANGED LOW TEMPS LITTLE RANGING
FROM MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY AVERAGE UNDER
0.25-INCH...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM-ENHANCED
CORRIDORS.
TURNING TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP-FREE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...PULLED NEARLY ALL POPS FROM THE MORNING PERIOD...BUT
DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME FAR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A
QUICKLY DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHERWISE...THURS
WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-25 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS AS INCREASING SUNSHINE RESULTS IN INCREASED MIXING.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS WITH A CHILLY DAY IN STORE
RANGING MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. THURS NIGHT...A TRAILING
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AS CLOSE AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...BUT ONLY PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AS NORTH WINDS DECREASE. LOWERED LOWS
2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST...NOW
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WHICH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE SINCE OCT. 7TH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY FORECAST
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOISTURE-STARVED PASSING SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING A FEW BATCHES OF PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BREEZES
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA...AND ONLY MADE A VERY SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS TOPPING OUT NO
BETTER THAN MID-UPPER 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPS COULD REALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN SOME AREAS OR POSSIBLY BE HELD UP BY PLENTY OF
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY PLAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXITING THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
LATEST GLOBAL SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SWINGING THE AXIS
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
APPROXIMATELY 10C BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB FROM THE
40S ON SATURDAY...TO THE LOWER 60S IN SPOTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE CURRENT PATTERN PANS
OUT...CONTINUED PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR
HALLOWEEN...WHICH LIES JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING IN THE MID
60S NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ048-049-
061>064-073>077-082>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WEATHER CHALLENGES DURING THESE NEXT 72 HOURS OCCUR DURING THE
FIRST 24...AS LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY
TO WHAT SHOULD BE FAR THE BEST 6-12 HOUR WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL KS TO
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE...OR BARELY CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AROUND MITCHELL COUNTY KS. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
AREA AROUND 1003MB EXTENDED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHEAST CO. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WAS
EXPERIENCING STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH...EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SPEEDS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. JUST
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS...DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED 24
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THIS FAIRLY NARROW SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A BROAD LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY DUAL 500MB
CLOSED LOWS...ONE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUE IS DENSE FOG
TRENDS...AND THE HANDLING OF THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. EARLIER LET
SEVERAL OF THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES EXPIRE...AS INCREASING NORTH
WINDS HAD SUFFICIENTLY MIXED VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 1/4
MILE...AND A GLANCE AT LATEST OBS AND VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COULD PROBABLY BE EXPIRED
SHORTLY AS WELL...SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES PRIOR TO 1130Z.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GETS HUNG UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN CO...WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME PERIOD THROUGH
00Z...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE A MENTION OF GENERALLY NON-
MEASURABLE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2
CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 850MB...AND ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE
TELLTALE BLOTCHY LIGHT QPF FIELDS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE NAM/GFS. ANY
POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO FOCUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT EVEN FORM AT ALL BEFORE SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...AFTER BIG BUSTS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN MOST AREAS...YET ANOTHER VERY DICEY SETUP
PRESENTS ITSELF TODAY...AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHOULD DOMINATE ALL
BUT MAYBE A FEW FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY
LONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. BASED HEAVILY ON 00Z MET/00Z NAM
GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO SLASH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 7-10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...NOW AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S
NORTH...ONLY LOW-MID 50S TRI-CITIES AND A MIX OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. THAT BEING
SAID...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS THE LATEST HRRR VALID THROUGH
20Z SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS MAY STILL BE AIMED
WAY TOO WARM. IT MIGHT VERY WELL TURN OUT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA STRUGGLES TO RISE MORE THAN 5-8 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES
EARLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED STORMS COULD FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA...THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE A STEADY IGNITION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LIKELY 60-70 POPS WERE MAINTAINED. WITH THE 06Z NAM ADVERTISING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SEVERAL
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...HAVE
CONTINUED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL-STORM WORDING IN THE
HWO...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBS ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OR LONG-
LASTING STRONG/SEVERE EVENT THOUGH. TURNING TO OTHER OVERNIGHT
ELEMENTS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA IN PARTS OF VALLEY/DAWSON COUNTIES COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A
VERY LIGHT DUSTING...IF IT EVEN ACCUMULATES AT ALL...AS MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL FOCUS 50+ MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR A FORMAL WIND ADVISORY...A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE SURGE
OVERNIGHT COULD EASILY BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-30 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CHANGED LOW TEMPS LITTLE RANGING
FROM MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY AVERAGE UNDER
0.25-INCH...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM-ENHANCED
CORRIDORS.
TURNING TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP-FREE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...PULLED NEARLY ALL POPS FROM THE MORNING PERIOD...BUT
DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME FAR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A
QUICKLY DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHERWISE...THURS
WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-25 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS AS INCREASING SUNSHINE RESULTS IN INCREASED MIXING.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS WITH A CHILLY DAY IN STORE
RANGING MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. THURS NIGHT...A TRAILING
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AS CLOSE AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...BUT ONLY PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AS NORTH WINDS DECREASE. LOWERED LOWS
2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST...NOW
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WHICH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE SINCE OCT. 7TH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY FORECAST
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOISTURE-STARVED PASSING SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING A FEW BATCHES OF PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BREEZES
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA...AND ONLY MADE A VERY SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS TOPPING OUT NO
BETTER THAN MID-UPPER 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPS COULD REALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN SOME AREAS OR POSSIBLY BE HELD UP BY PLENTY OF
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY PLAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXITING THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
LATEST GLOBAL SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SWINGING THE AXIS
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
APPROXIMATELY 10C BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB FROM THE
40S ON SATURDAY...TO THE LOWER 60S IN SPOTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE CURRENT PATTERN PANS
OUT...CONTINUED PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR
HALLOWEEN...WHICH LIES JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING IN THE MID
60S NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS DENSE FOG HAS
ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT LIFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AROUND THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT A RETURN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR 24/16Z...
WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING TO 16+KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
20+KTS LATER THIS EVENING AS RAPID PRESSURE RISES ARE REALIZED...AS
THE FRONT FINALLY GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. KEPT PRECIP
OUT OF THE END OF TAF FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL LIKELY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD A TSRA OR SHRA AROUND OR AFTER 24/06Z IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ048-049-
061>064-073>077-082>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
941 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4KM NAM...ARE
NOT CAPTURING THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA AND
THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF PA. THROUGH THE NEXT 4 HOURS WILL DO
A STRIPE OF LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ELMIRA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
BINGHAMTON...DOWN THROUGH SAYRE...MONTROSE...SCRANTON...AND
DINGMANS FERRY. OTHERWISE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
STALLED OR JUST A SLIGHT JOG NORTH BY LATE TODAY...CHANCE POPS
TODAY LOOK GOOD IN THE GENERAL AREA SEEING RAIN NOW. BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRY DAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
3 AM UPDATE... WMFNT HAS WASHED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FA
EXTNDG ACRS CNTRL PA AND TWD PHILLY PA. VORT MAX IS ROTATING ALONG
THE STATE LINE AND DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
THIS IS RESULTING IN -SHRAS RIGHT ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. WITH VRY
MINIMAL DWPT DEPRESSIONS CWA-WIDE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACRS CNTRL NY
AND NEPA. LOCALES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE DENSE AT TIMES WITH
AVG VSBYS GNRLY RANGING FM 1/2 TO 3 MILES. THUS HV ISSUED SPS TO
COVER THIS AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SEEMS TO BE OVERKILL.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON SCTD SHOWERS WL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY LATE
AFTN. TO ACCNT FOR ANY -SHRAS THAT MAY POP UP HV GNRLY GONE 30-40
POPS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO BREAK OUT IN MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND CANNOT FORESEE MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE RANGE OF THE MID-60S, ESPECIALLY AFTER YDAS POOR
PERFORMANCE UNDER CLDY CONDS. THUS HV GONE WITH HRLY TEMPS FM THE
LAV AND HV LOWERED THESE MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WITH PLACES IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST IN THE LWR 60S AND ELSEWHERE RMNG IN THE U50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE... ISOLD SHOWERS WL CONT THRU MIDNIGHT BFR
TRANSITIONING TO PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS THE FAR SRN ZONES. SFC HIPRES
OVR WRN QUEBEC WL BUILD SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SRLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THO QPF AMNTS WL BE MINIMAL THRU 12Z
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. THO SRLY
FLOW DOES NOT EXTND MUCH ABV THE SFC TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEPTH ENUF
MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT DUE TO THE WASHED OUT WMFNT TO KEEP DRIZZLE
GOING THRU PORTIONS OF THE DAY ON THUR.
BY THUR AFTN, SKIES WL CLR FM WEST TO EAST AND WITH SRLY FLOW ACRS
THE REGION H8 TEMPS WL SOAR TO BTWN 12C TO 14C. THIS WL YIELD HIGHS
IN THE LWR 70S FOR THE LK PLAIN WITH SERN ZONES STUCK IN THE 60S
UNDER CLD CVR.
AS HIPRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY OCCLUDED FNT WL APPCH
FM THE WEST. NAM BRINGS PCPN INTO WRN AND CNTRL ZONES BY 00Z SAT,
WHILE EURO IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED BRINGING PCPN JUST INTO WRN NY BY
THIS TIME, GFS IS THE SLOWEST WITH QPF STILL BACK IN NWRN OH. THUS
WL MAKE VRY FEW CHGS TO FRI/FRI NGT FCST WITH SLGT CHC POPS EXPECTED
THRU 12Z SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS
ATTM...AS A FAIR AMT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITHIN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WX PD.
THE MAIN EMPHASIS CONTS TO BE ON SANDY...AND WHERE SHE TRACKS FROM
LTR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE EC REMAINS NEAR THE WRN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TRACKING THE LOW CENTER NWD TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATL COAST BY MON/EARLY TUE...BEFORE ACTUALLY HOOKING THE
SYSTEM NWWD TO NEAR NY CITY THEREAFTER...AS AN AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL
TROUGH ESSENTIALLY CAPTURES IT. THIS SOLN...UNFORTUNATELY...HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN OF ALL THE MODELS (GFS REMAINS
FARTHER E...ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUN MAY ACTUALLY BE AN
OUTLIER...WITH MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MUCH CLOSER TO THE E
COAST...MORE LIKE THE EC). HPC PREFERENCE APPEARS TO STILL BE WITH THE
MORE CONSISTENT EC AT THIS PT...AND THUS WE`LL KEEP THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN GOING ACRS CNY/NE PA FROM SAT...RIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED AGN THAT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...AS
MODEL TRACK ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT SUCH TIME RANGES. SANDY
IS ALSO STILL IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ATTM...WITH ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS IN OUR FA AT LEAST 3-5 DAYS AWAY.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...THOUGH...THERE ARE SYNOPTIC SIGNALS IN OUR
NWP GUIDANCE THAT WOULD IMPLY AN EVENTUAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE MID-
ATL AND NERN STATES. THESE INCLUDE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATN FOR
SANDY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO (DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LKS/OH VLY AND UPR-LVL RIDGE IN THE N ATLANTIC)...A VERY STG
UPR-LVL JET STREAK TO OUR NW (170+ KT...WITH NY/PA IN THE ENTRANCE
RGN)...AND A FRNTL BNDRY/INVERTED TROUGH PRESENT FOR ANY TROP
MOIST TO OVERRUN. GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY DEEP ERLY FETCH FROM THE
VICINITY OF SANDY INTO THE ERN CONUS...AND THE JUST MENTIONED
FRNTL ZN/SFC TROUGH...PRE (PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT) FORMATION COULD
EVEN BE IN THE CARDS SOMEWHERE ACRS THE ERN STATES...AS SOON AS
LTR SAT/EARLY SUN. TIME WILL CERTAINLY TELL...AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL
SEE IMPROVED MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE COMING DAYS.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITN CLOSELY...SO STAY TUNED FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES.
PREV DISC... 315 PM UPDATE...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES STILL BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS
(EURO/CANADIAN/GFS) WITH REGARDS TO SANDY...THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...WHERE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR
AREA PRODUCING RAIN. HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM HPC LOOK GOOD TO COVER
THIS. WITH THE INCREASED THREAT FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...WITH THE
12Z GFS AND CANADIAN STILL WELL OUT TO SEA WITH SANDY...WHILE THE
12Z EURO TAKES SANDY INTO EASTERN LI BY 12Z TUESDAY. HPC GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO LEAN WITH THE EURO FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AGREE CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE EURO
SOLUTION BEING CONSISTENT HOWEVER WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO...WILL KNOCK US BACK TO LOW CHANCE DURING
THIS TIME. AGAIN MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE STILL (LOW CIGS/FOG/LGT
RAIN OR DRZL) ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PD. THE
WORST CONDS SHOULD BE THROUGH 15-16Z (LIFR/IFR AT
KBGM/KITH/KELM/KSYR...WITH MAINLY MVFR AT KRME).
THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN...AS CIG BASES/VSBYS
LIFT A LTL BIT. HOWEVER...FOR MOST SITES...ANY PROLONGED PDS OF VFR ARE
UNLIKELY...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LVL MOIST...WEAK SFC FLOW...AND
DIMINISHING SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO
SEE ANY SUSTAINED VFR IS KAVP...WHERE THE MOIST LYR IS PROGGED TO
BE MORE SHALLOW.
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS EVE (AFTER 00Z)...AS SOME DETERIORATION COULD
OCCUR AGAIN...INTRODUCING THE PSBLTY OF IFR RE-EMERGENCE. AT THIS
PT...WE FEEL IFR WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THE RESULT OF LWR CIGS...AS
OPPOSED TO RADIATION FOG...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF ANY SIG
CLEARING. THUS...WE HIT IFR CONDS THE HARDEST ON THE HILLTOPS AT
KBGM AND KITH. WE KEPT THE OTHER SITES MVFR FOR THE TIME BEING.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING TO VFR...AFTER EARLY MVFR/IFR CIGS...AND PATCHY FOG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT/SUN...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PUEBLO CO
156 PM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED KPUB TAF AND AVIATION DISCUSSION TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS AT
KPUB EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT COS AND ALS
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN EASTERLY AT PUB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS
TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD AROUND 00Z...COS AROUND 01Z...PUB AROUND
03Z AND ALL THE WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO LINE 04-05Z. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING COS AND NORTHWARD AFT 06Z. APPEARS FRONT
WILL SHOW LITTLE PENETRATION WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT COS AND ALS
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
AT PUB LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS
TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD AROUND 00Z...COS AROUND 01Z...PUB AROUND
03Z AND ALL THE WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO LINE 04-05Z. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING COS AND NORTHWARD AFT 06Z. APPEARS FRONT WILL
SHOW LITTLE PENETRATION WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. MOST OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING HAVE SHOWED WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LA VETA PASS REGION WHERE
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER 50 MPH. LATEST MODEL AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL JET EDGING EASTWARD
INTO COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
SEE TRAPPED WAVES IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WRF CROSS
SECTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES ARE INDICATING WINDS STARTING
TO DUCT BACK TO THE SURFACE AFTER 18Z WITH 60 KT FLOW INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE LEE SLOPES. THE WRF HAS THIS DUCTING OF
STRONG WINDS THROUGH AROUND 01Z WHEN THE MAIN JET CORE ELIMINATES
THE CRITICAL LAYER. FEEL WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP BY NOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THIS REGION
WHERE GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER 60
MPH ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THIS
AREA WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS FURTHER NORTH ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATE THAT MOSTLY BRUTE FORCE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRES...WET MOUNTAINS AND VALLEY
AND LEE SLOPES NEAR THE WETMORE AREA. WINDS WILL GUST IN THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT
STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL DUCT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FEEL
THAT THIS AREA COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME. EXTREME CAUTION IS ALSO ADVISED HERE AS WELL GIVEN THE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 88
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WET MTS THOUGH HAVE
KEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH OBS STILL
INDICATING WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH AND MODELS INDICATING H7
WINDS OF 50 KTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 16Z. FRONT HAS MADE
IT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING INTACT...HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODELS
ARE CORRECT...MAY NOT SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS OTERO COUNTY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT
MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS
CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF A TRINIDAD TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. BRIEF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH RED CREEK RAWS INDICATING THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH LAST EVENING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SW WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN MTS WITH KPUX RADAR STILL INDICATING A HIGH WIND SIGNATURE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY...00Z MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS FRONT BUT 06Z AND
HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATING FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK
NORTH AND EAST WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AHEAD SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH MT WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND HAVE KEPT HIGH
WIND WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 9AM ACROSS THE WET MTS...THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR AND HAVE CANCELED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. EXPECTING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SOUTHERN TIER ZONES ALONG THE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BORDER AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING
IN PLACE FROM NOON TIL 7PM FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR BENT...PROWERS AND CROWLEY COUNTIES WITH THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF GREAT
BASIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE STATE
THIS EVENING WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO HIT THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-40 MPH AND
MUCH COOLER AIR TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT ALONG WITH
SOME GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION. -MW
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOME MORE UPSLOPE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON. AREA WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO BY THU EVENING. EXPECT
-SHRA/-SHSN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AS UPSLOPE DEEPENS
AND LIFT INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COLD AREA-WIDE...THOUGH
AGAIN MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD FOR KCOS AND KPUB. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS...THOUGH WEAK SURFACE/MID LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL TEMPER SNOW
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. STILL APPEARS BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 6 PLUS INCHES BY MIDDAY FRI. MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HERE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH WARM GROUND MAY LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMS SOMEWHAT. REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS...WHILE PLAINS SEE ONLY SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY...AND
EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES/LIGHT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH MANY AREAS STAYING WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF FREEZING.
ONCE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA FRIDAY...WEATHER BECOMES VERY
QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO WARMER WESTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW/MID LEVELS WARM ONLY
SLOWLY UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DEVELOPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES WARMER AIR
BACK INTO THE STATE.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WITH NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BEHIND SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP AT COS AND ALS LATE
THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS AT
PUB LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS
MORNINGS FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO HIT THE PALMER DVD AND COS BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AT
COS AFT 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ074-075-087-
088.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-225-
228>230-232-233-237.
&&
$$
50/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT COS AND ALS
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
AT PUB LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS
TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD AROUND 00Z...COS AROUND 01Z...PUB AROUND
03Z AND ALL THE WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO LINE 04-05Z. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING COS AND NORTHWARD AFT 06Z. APPEARS FRONT WILL
SHOW LITTLE PENETRATION WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. MOST OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING HAVE SHOWED WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LA VETA PASS REGION WHERE
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER 50 MPH. LATEST MODEL AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL JET EDGING EASTWARD
INTO COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
SEE TRAPPED WAVES IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WRF CROSS
SECTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES ARE INDICATING WINDS STARTING
TO DUCT BACK TO THE SURFACE AFTER 18Z WITH 60 KT FLOW INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE LEE SLOPES. THE WRF HAS THIS DUCTING OF
STRONG WINDS THROUGH AROUND 01Z WHEN THE MAIN JET CORE ELIMINATES
THE CRITICAL LAYER. FEEL WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP BY NOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THIS REGION
WHERE GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER 60
MPH ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THIS
AREA WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS FURTHER NORTH ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATE THAT MOSTLY BRUTE FORCE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRES...WET MOUNTAINS AND VALLEY
AND LEE SLOPES NEAR THE WETMORE AREA. WINDS WILL GUST IN THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT
STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL DUCT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FEEL
THAT THIS AREA COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME. EXTREME CAUTION IS ALSO ADVISED HERE AS WELL GIVEN THE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 88
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WET MTS THOUGH HAVE
KEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH OBS STILL
INDICATING WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH AND MODELS INDICATING H7
WINDS OF 50 KTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 16Z. FRONT HAS MADE
IT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING INTACT...HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODELS
ARE CORRECT...MAY NOT SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS OTERO COUNTY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT
MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS
CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF A TRINIDAD TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. BRIEF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH RED CREEK RAWS INDICATING THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH LAST EVENING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SW WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN MTS WITH KPUX RADAR STILL INDICATING A HIGH WIND SIGNATURE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY...00Z MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS FRONT BUT 06Z AND
HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATING FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK
NORTH AND EAST WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AHEAD SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH MT WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND HAVE KEPT HIGH
WIND WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 9AM ACROSS THE WET MTS...THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR AND HAVE CANCELED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. EXPECTING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SOUTHERN TIER ZONES ALONG THE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BORDER AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING
IN PLACE FROM NOON TIL 7PM FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR BENT...PROWERS AND CROWLEY COUNTIES WITH THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF GREAT
BASIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE STATE
THIS EVENING WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO HIT THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-40 MPH AND
MUCH COOLER AIR TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT ALONG WITH
SOME GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION. -MW
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOME MORE UPSLOPE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON. AREA WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO BY THU EVENING. EXPECT
-SHRA/-SHSN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AS UPSLOPE DEEPENS
AND LIFT INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COLD AREA-WIDE...THOUGH
AGAIN MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD FOR KCOS AND KPUB. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS...THOUGH WEAK SURFACE/MID LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL TEMPER SNOW
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. STILL APPEARS BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 6 PLUS INCHES BY MIDDAY FRI. MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HERE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH WARM GROUND MAY LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMS SOMEWHAT. REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS...WHILE PLAINS SEE ONLY SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY...AND
EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES/LIGHT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH MANY AREAS STAYING WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF FREEZING.
ONCE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA FRIDAY...WEATHER BECOMES VERY
QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO WARMER WESTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW/MID LEVELS WARM ONLY
SLOWLY UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DEVELOPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES WARMER AIR
BACK INTO THE STATE.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WITH NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BEHIND SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP AT COS AND ALS LATE
THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS AT
PUB LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS
MORNINGS FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO HIT THE PALMER DVD AND COS BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AT
COS AFT 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ074-075-087-
088.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-225-
228>230-232-233-237.
&&
$$
50/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...WET SNOW AND SNOW OVER NORTHEAST UTAH WILL
BE SPREADING ACROSS MOFFAT COUNTY OF NW COLORADO TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NW COLORADO. RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
FROM RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS TO MIXTURE OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW...TURNING TO ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
WARRANTS EXPANSION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TO COMPOUND THE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL FORCING...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ADDS THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. IF CURRENT TREND HOLDS...WILL BE ADDING THE GRAND MESA AND
THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL
WATCH HOW THE SNOW EVOLVES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND WAIT FOR THE
FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE EXPANDING OR EXTENDING ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO...THE HRRR MODELS
INDICATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. CANNOT ARGUE WITH
THIS GIVEN INTREPRETATION OF THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THAT SHOWS
DARKENING AREA OF PACIFIC JET THAT PUNCHES OVERHEAD. COMBINED WITH
PRONOUNCED FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE OVER ERN COLORADO AND THEREBY
INCREASING THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT FLOW...HOISTED WIND ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AREA. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONG WINDS MAY IMPACT RED MOUNTAIN
PASS...CERRO SUMMIT...AND RIDGWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
A SURFACE FRONT LAY STALLED ALONG A 20N KCNY TO JUST SOUTH OF KCAG
LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN A BROAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. KGJX RADAR WAS
PICKING UP SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH
SUSPECT MUCH OF WHAT HAS BEEN DETECTED IS VIRGA. SUSPECT SNOW IS
FALLING OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS THOUGH DATA FROM THE
SNOTEL SITES TOO NOISY TO ASCERTAIN THIS FOR CERTAIN.
TODAY: A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT DEEP INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF
THE WAY THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT COMBINED WITH NEGATIVE DIV-Q ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATED ATMOSPHERE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SO ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IN ITS VICINITY. SNOW...ALREADY ONGOING
OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS WELL THE GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL COLORADO. IN NORTHERN COLORADO...SNOW LEVELS BEGIN AROUND
9000 FEET INITIALLY...FALLING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WERE ALREADY AT THE BASE OF THE
EASTERN UINTAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO REACH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...SO KEPT POPS
TO ISOLATED AND LOW END SCATTERED AND LEFT OUT ANY REAL CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES APPEARED ON
TRACK SO MADE NO CHANGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. FAVORED
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY: THE STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD AND EXITS THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAN JUANS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THAT FAR SOUTH...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY TIMED WITH THE
FRONT...AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE THE STORM WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE COLD PHASE AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SO
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UT
INITIALLY...AND THEN OVER FAR WESTERN CO MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE DIVIDE. ALSO OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL AS THE SUN SETS...
DROPPING INTO THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED OR ENDED BY THE TIME IT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH VALUES AROUND 6-12 COOLER THAN THIS MORNING`S LOWS.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER JET CARRIES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SHOT INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS WAVE OF COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE AREA INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...KEEPING SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER THE FAVORED NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AT 500 MB THE GFS BRINGS THE
-28C ISOTHERM OVER GRAND JUNCTION BY MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS EVEN
COLDER WITH AN AREA OF -31C DIPPING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN EDGE.
HOWEVER ON THE LIMITING SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER
DROP IN BOTH THE HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES.
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE
COLD AND DRY OTHER THAN SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FLAT
RIDGING FORMS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH BOTH MODELS INDICATED
THERE MAY BE A FEW DISTURBANCES BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THIS PERIOD POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS WAS POOR AND ITS UNLIKELY THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THE SKILL TO RESOLVE THESE FAST MOVING MINOR
PERTURBATIONS THAT FAR OUT. THEREFORE...LEFT THE LOW POP VALUES
GENERATED FROM BLENDED MODELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEASON ENDING FREEZE FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH...THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONTEZUMA AND DOLORES COUNTIES REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND TAKES OVER THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE...LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...AND
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 25KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35-40KT WILL
IMPACT AIRFIELDS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING.
FOR NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO...WIDESPREAD RASN CIGS
AOB OVC030 WITH LOCAL CIGS AOB BKN010 VIS BLO 3SM WILL SPREAD EAST
AND SOUTH AND IMPACT THE FOLLOWING AIRFIELDS...KVEL...KCAG...KEEO...KHDN
AND KSBS. ICING WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANY MELTED PRECIPITATION
TO FREEZE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
LINGERING FLURRIES AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ011-014-017-018-
020>023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ001-
002-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ004-010-
013.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE, AREAS OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH FA, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PUSH TO NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND HAYS LINE
BY THIS MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF
A RE-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FROM SCOTT TO RUSH COUNTY AND NORTH. THIS
AREA IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR DENSE FOG. THEN THE
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NEAR A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH
OF DODGE CITY TO A LACROSSE LINE BY 4 TO 7 PM. HAVE COOLED DAYTIME
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN FROM HITTING 90 ALONG OUR BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE STRONGEST, WITH THE
DEEPEST MIXING, FROM JOHNSON CITY TO ULYSSES TO PRATT AND SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TO THE
AREA JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN
RETREAT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO
35 MPH AND GUSTY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
HAYS BY 9 PM, THEN THROUGH GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS MEDICINE LODGE BY 3 AM. THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SO
THE CHANCES FOR PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WAKEENEY TO HAYS
AREA AND SOUTH TO LARNED AND MEDICINE LODGE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30
POP TO COVER. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING AS THE REGION OF
HIGHER CAPE SHIFTS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NOT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST FA FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH. FOLLOWING THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AND THE MODELS ARE ONLY INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME QPF BREAKING OUT WITH THIS WAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE
PARTIALLY UPSLOPE DRIVEN AS IT IS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
THE WAVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE
COLD ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MILLIBARS SO FOR NOW WILL
LEAN AWAY FROM ANY MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIP.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. MANY
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A HARD FREEZE YET SO A FREEZE WATCH SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET AS
THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA BUT GIVEN THE COLDER DRIER AIR MOVING IN, WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WATCH.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE THREAT FOR A
HARD FREEZE LOOKS BETTER GIVEN THE ADDED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IS INVOLVED BUT A WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KGCK/KDDC. LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR KHYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FG THIS MORNING. N WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KT LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 53 30 47 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 39 52 29 47 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 39 52 28 47 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 40 53 29 48 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 40 52 29 49 / 30 10 10 10
P28 50 56 34 50 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1131 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
...UPDATED FOR FIRE WEATHER...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WERE FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ARE LIKELY GOING TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT A MUCH CLOSER SOLUTION TO THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON RELEGATING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50`S AND LOW
60S. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA MAY ALSO TEMPER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE REGIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE, AREAS OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH FA, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PUSH TO NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND HAYS LINE
BY THIS MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF
A RE-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FROM SCOTT TO RUSH COUNTY AND NORTH. THIS
AREA IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR DENSE FOG. THEN THE
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NEAR A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH
OF DODGE CITY TO A LACROSSE LINE BY 4 TO 7 PM. HAVE COOLED DAYTIME
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN FROM HITTING 90 ALONG OUR BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE STRONGEST, WITH THE
DEEPEST MIXING, FROM JOHNSON CITY TO ULYSSES TO PRATT AND SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TO THE
AREA JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN
RETREAT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO
35 MPH AND GUSTY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
HAYS BY 9 PM, THEN THROUGH GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS MEDICINE LODGE BY 3 AM. THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SO
THE CHANCES FOR PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WAKEENEY TO HAYS
AREA AND SOUTH TO LARNED AND MEDICINE LODGE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30
POP TO COVER. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING AS THE REGION OF
HIGHER CAPE SHIFTS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NOT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST FA FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THURSDAY:
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A TRAVERSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND MAGNITUDES IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGHER
850 HPA WINDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND AS SUBSIDENCE & HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER
50S DEG F AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A 400
HPA POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS AS THE BEST FORCING/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
NW OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE SILENT POPS NOW AND GO WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. EVEN THE 00Z GFS HAS TONED DOWN ON QPF AND KEEPS
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS COLORADO.
FRIDAY:
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING.
HAVE GONE WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A PASSING 90-100 KT 250 HPA JET STREAK. IN ADDITION, WINDS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 10 KT FRIDAY MORNING AND RESULTANT MIXING COULD PREVENT
TEMPS FOR RADIATING DOWN FURTHER. WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEG F
FOR NOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S DEG F AS COOL MID TO LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT FOR A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF MOS
VERSUS THE WARMER ALLBLEND SOLUTION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY SO THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
CONCERN IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 50S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF A LEE SURFACE TROF/RESULTANT WAA PATTERN.
EXPECT HIGHS TO INCREASE TO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KGCK/KDDC. LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR KHYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FG THIS MORNING. N WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KT LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS SPREADING FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, IT IS LIKELY THIS LOW STRATUS
AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND WIND FIELDS. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS CANCELED FOR THE 4
SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES IT WAS IN EFFECT FOR. NO FURTHER FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 43 53 30 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 56 39 52 29 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 64 39 52 28 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 66 40 53 29 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 57 40 52 29 / 0 30 10 10
P28 87 50 56 34 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1126 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
...UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WERE FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ARE LIKELY GOING TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT A MUCH CLOSER SOLUTION TO THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON RELEGATING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50`S AND LOW
60S. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA MAY ALSO TEMPER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE REGIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE, AREAS OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH FA, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PUSH TO NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND HAYS LINE
BY THIS MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF
A RE-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR IS
DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FROM SCOTT TO RUSH COUNTY AND NORTH. THIS
AREA IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR DENSE FOG. THEN THE
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NEAR A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO JUST NORTH
OF DODGE CITY TO A LACROSSE LINE BY 4 TO 7 PM. HAVE COOLED DAYTIME
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN FROM HITTING 90 ALONG OUR BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE THE STRONGEST, WITH THE
DEEPEST MIXING, FROM JOHNSON CITY TO ULYSSES TO PRATT AND SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TO THE
AREA JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN
RETREAT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO
35 MPH AND GUSTY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
HAYS BY 9 PM, THEN THROUGH GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS MEDICINE LODGE BY 3 AM. THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SO
THE CHANCES FOR PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WAKEENEY TO HAYS
AREA AND SOUTH TO LARNED AND MEDICINE LODGE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30
POP TO COVER. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING AS THE REGION OF
HIGHER CAPE SHIFTS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NOT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST FA FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
THURSDAY:
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A TRAVERSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND MAGNITUDES IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGHER
850 HPA WINDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND AS SUBSIDENCE & HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER
50S DEG F AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A 400
HPA POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS AS THE BEST FORCING/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
NW OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE SILENT POPS NOW AND GO WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. EVEN THE 00Z GFS HAS TONED DOWN ON QPF AND KEEPS
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS COLORADO.
FRIDAY:
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING.
HAVE GONE WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A PASSING 90-100 KT 250 HPA JET STREAK. IN ADDITION, WINDS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 10 KT FRIDAY MORNING AND RESULTANT MIXING COULD PREVENT
TEMPS FOR RADIATING DOWN FURTHER. WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEG F
FOR NOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S DEG F AS COOL MID TO LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT FOR A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF MOS
VERSUS THE WARMER ALLBLEND SOLUTION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY SO THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
CONCERN IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 50S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF A LEE SURFACE TROF/RESULTANT WAA PATTERN.
EXPECT HIGHS TO INCREASE TO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KGCK/KDDC. LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR KHYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FG THIS MORNING. N WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KT LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 43 53 30 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 56 39 52 29 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 64 39 52 28 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 66 40 53 29 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 57 40 52 29 / 0 30 10 10
P28 87 50 56 34 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUSSELL
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW ALF OVER
THE PLAINS BTWN DEEP TROF OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND AN UPR RDG AXIS
ALIGNED FM HUDSON BAY THRU THE CENTRAL GRT LKS INTO THE SE CONUS.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST LLVL AIRMASS
/PWATS UP TO 250 PCT OF NORMAL/ OVER THE UPR GRT LKS...THERE ARE
ONLY A FEW -SHRA NOTED ON THE MQT RADAR DUE TO STRONG CAPPING INVRN
BTWN H75-8 AS NOTED ON THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS EVEN THOUGH A SHALLOW...
WEAK COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO CLOSED LO OVER SASKATCHEWAN HAS LIMPED
INTO THE FAR WRN CWA. A DISTURBANCE WITH 70KT H5 WINDS LIFTING NEWD
THRU THE DAKOTAS IS CAUSING AN AREA OF -SHRA UNDER SHARP H7 TEMP
GRADIENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW MN WELL WELL W OF THE SFC COLD
FNT AND THE AREA INFLUENCED BY THE SHARP MID LVL CAP. THE SHRTWV IN
THE NRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
CNTRL ROCKIES HAVE CONSPIRED TO CAUSE A LO PRES TO DVLP FARTHER S ON
THE COLD FNT IN KANSAS. OVER UPR MI... AREAS OF FOG LINGER
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ZNS WHERE LLVL SSE FLOW IS UPSLOPING.
THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LO CLDS HAVE LIMITED
SFC WARMING. FARTHER TO THE S...MORE BREAKS IN THE LO CLDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MORE SFC WARMING OVER ERN IOWA AND SRN WI.
TNGT...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TS CHCS AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX
AS DISTURBANCES LIFT TO THE NE OUT OF MEAN WRN TROF. SPC HAS PLACED
WRN UPR MI IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TNGT. GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY
SGNFT SFC WARMING OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN AND SHARP INVRN...ANY
CONVECTION SHUD BE ELEVATED AND DEPENDENT ON WHETHER/HOW QUICKLY THE
SHARP H8-75 INVRN WEAKENS. 12Z GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED TO SHIFT FOCUS
FOR MOST SGNFT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE
NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN AT 00Z...A LOGICAL SHIFT GIVEN HI
AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SHIFT OF SECOND SHRTWV FARTHER W INTO
THE UPR TROF AXIS. HIER RES NAM RUN SHOWS THE SHARPEST/SLOPED H85-7
FGEN/UVV IMPACTING WRN LK SUP AT 00Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AS
THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV FADES AS
THE UPR TROF DEEPENS FARTHER W WITH CLOSER APRCH OF 2ND SHRTWV.
GIVEN THE STRENTH OF THE CAPPING ILLUSTRATED BY THE 12Z RAOBS...
SUSPECT MOST WDSPRD AND INTENSE SHRA/TS THIS EVNG WL MISS THE LAND
CWA TO THE W...WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W SEEING NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TS OR -DZ IN THIS SCENARIO AS WEAKER FORCING HERE
LIMITS THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP. EVEN THE NAM DOES SHOW A SECOND
AREA OF HIER QPF OVER THE SE ZNS...AND THIS MIGHT DEPEND ON IF SOME
SHRA DVLP WITH THE CLRG OVER SE WI AND MOVE TO THE N. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS SHOWS SIMILAR UPR FORCING...THIS MODEL...WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE
12Z CNDN GEM MODEL...SHOWS AXIS OF HIER QPF OVER WRN UPR MI NEAR THE
SFC COLD FNT. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHARPER DYNAMICS AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION... THINK THE NAM FCST IS THE BEST BET. GIVEN
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR SHEAR ABV THE MORE STABLE LYR NEAR THE SFC...ANY
TS THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE WRN ZNS COULD TURN SVR WITH HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT GIVEN SFC BASED STABILITY. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HI FRZG LVL...ANY SHRA COULD DUMP HEAVY RA EVEN
IF THEY ARE FAST MOVING UNDER THE STEADY FLOW ALF. AS THE SECOND
SHRTWV RIDES NEWD LATER TNGT...ANOTHER AREA OF VIGOROUS H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY MN TOWARD 12Z. SO
AFT INITIAL ROUND OF HIER POPS LIFTS TO THE NE...SUSPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHRA/SOME TS WL INVADE THE WRN CWA LATER. WITH ONLY
MODEST DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO REDVLP... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OVER THE ECNTRL EXPERIENCING UPSLOPE SSE WINDS.
THU...AS DISTURBANCE/ACCOMPANYING H3 JET MAX AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC RIDE TO THE NNE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING UP THE
STALLED COLD FNT OVER THE W...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TS TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE W HALF IN THE MRNG BEFORE THE SHRTWV MOVES FAR
ENUF TO THE N AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC DVLPS WITH DNVA/STRONG CAD
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA AS SFC LO MOVES INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTN.
THINK CATEGORICAL POPS ARE APPROPRIATE OVER THE W IN THE MRNG...WITH
THE HIER POPS FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA TO THE E. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED
STABILITY WL LIMIT THE INCRS IN WIND SPEED BLO ADVY LVL...S WINDS
NEAR LK MI MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA UNDER
H925 WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AND WITH SHARP PRES FALL CENTER MOVING INTO
ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SFC LO PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT TO THE S GRADIENT
FLOW. COMBINATION OF STRONG CAD AND W H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-40
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA MIGHT CAUSE WIND GUSTS OVER THE EXPOSED
KEWEENAW TO AT LEAST APRCH ADVY LVL IN THE AFTN. ENUF COLD AIR MAY
ARRIVE TO AT LEAST MIX LINGERING USPLOPE LK ENHANCED -SHRA WITH SN
OVER THE FAR W IF THE COLDER NAM SHOWING H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD
-5C AT 00Z FRI VERIFIES. THE SHARP COLD FROPA WARRANTS A NON DIURNAL
TEMP TREND...WITH TEMPS FALLING BEHIND THE FROPA ESPECIALLY OVER THE
W.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER NE
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST E OF UPPER MI...AND A SECONDARY
TROUGH SET UP E-W FROM THE LOW ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 500MB LOW
OVER LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE NNE OUT OF THE AREA.
W FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C SHOULD HELP KEEP SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS W UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE A BIT LESS DURING THAT TIME...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS BUT JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE SECONDARY TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE LITTLE WITH IT AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ITSELT OVER N HUDSON BAY BY THAT TIME.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...AS THE BEST SNOW GROWTH REGION /AOA
800MB/ REMAINS WELL ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE MAIN HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY...EVEN AS THE STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. AS
A RESULT OF THE NEARING STORM SYSTEM...THE SFC HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...N FLOW WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE FAR E UPPER MI FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD /WEDNESDAY/ AS THE LOW RETROGRADES .
UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTANCY
ON THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM SLIDING TOWARDS THE E COAST...THE GFS
IS A BIT MORE JUMPY. THE MODEL IS SPLIT ON WHETHER TO BRING THE LOW
OFF TO SEE...OR EVEM MORE ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING /NEAR LAKE
HURON/ IF THE 24/06Z RUN IS CORRECT. THE 24/12Z GFS SHIFTED THE
500MB LOW APPROX 300-350MI W OF ITS PREVIOUS MORE OUT TO SEA
LOCATION MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THE FCST A BIT
CLOSER TO THE MORE STABLE ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
QUITE A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IN THE MAKING AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
AN OVERALL STAGNANT AIRMASS ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP CIGS
AND VIS QUITE LOW AT ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH IWD.
GIVEN GENERAL FLOW FROM THE NE...HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VIS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. RECENT OBS WITH VIS
M1/4SM HAVE LED TO SOME CONCERN THAT VIS/CIGS MAY END UP EVEN LOWER
THAN FORECAST...SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT IWD WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO NE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS FOR CMX...THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EASE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE INFLUENCE SHOULD DECREASE AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHEASTERLY...SO A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VIS
AND CIGS SHOULD OCCUR. A SECONDARY...STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
CMX BY 18Z THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AND WIND
SPEED INCREASE WELL ABOVE 12KTS.
SSE UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW IS KEEPING CIGS BELOW LANDING MINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR CIGS TO RISE AT OR ABOVE LANDING MINS IS
DWINDLING AS SUNSET APPROACHES. HAVE THUS KEPT CIGS AT OR BELOW
LANDING MINS THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SSW AND
REDUCE UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LASTLY...MARGINAL LLWS OF ABOUT 30-40KTS OVER THE LOWEST 1.5KFT IS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
EXPECT DENSE FOG OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO LINGER THRU
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS
ABLE TO DISSIPATE THE FOG. THE DENSER FOG WILL LINGER LONGEST NEAR
THE W SHORE OF UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE TO
30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL WILL SHIFT
TO THE W FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA ON THU AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE KEWEENAW
LATE IN THE DAY. THESE MARGINAL GALES WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL LAKE ON THU EVENING...SO HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR NOW IN
THIS AREA. LIGHTER WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
E LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ265-266.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KC/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 PM CDT Wed Oct 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...
In the short term, the primary focus will be precipitation chances
with a dynamic cold front approaching from the northwest. Although
most model solutions continue to indicate light, warm sector
precipitation across northwest Missouri this afternoon and evening,
and low level moisture is evident in the scattered to broken MVFR
deck, the weak forcing resulting from slight isentropic lift has not
been enough to produce rain showers ahead of the surface cold front.
Short range hi-res models have caught onto the lack of precipitation
this afternoon, and keep rainfall out of Missouri prior to 06z. Have
hedged a bit earlier than the latest HRRR forecasts in bringing a
chance of precipitation into far northwestern portions of the CWA
for the potential that storms could develop on the boundary and move
into the far northwest before 06z; however, the better chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday as the main trough axis
dips into southeast Nebraska and begins driving the surface front
more quickly to the southeast.
Both the NAM and GFS produce convective precipitation along the low
level boundary tonight as frontogenesis increases and midlevel
cooling supports temporarily higher lapse rates, mainly above 925mb.
The best chance for any robust storms to develop will likely be
confined to the period between 06z-09z when storms can be rooted
more closely to the surface; afterward, the low-level inversion will
be compounded by surface frontal passage, and the focus for
precipitation will shift a bit closer to the 850mb front. Most
precipitation during the daylight hours on Thursday should occur
mainly along the 850 front, with a small chance for some isolated
development along the surface front in far eastern portions of the
forecast area early Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will linger a
bit across the southeast as midlevel forcing broadens early Friday
evening, with any remaining showers expected to move out shortly
between 00z-06z Friday.
Temperatures will drop significantly behind the cold front, and in
general, highs will be reached just prior to frontal passage on
Thursday. Highs for Friday and Saturday will be well below average
as cold surface high pressure settles into the region, and lows
Friday night could drop a few degrees below freezing across areas
that have not previously received a hard freeze.
Laflin
Medium Range (Saturday Night through Wednesday)...
As the Canadian surface ridge remains settled over the area this
weekend...temperatures will dip to around 30 degrees Sunday morning.
The northern zones have experienced a hard freeze so will have to
make some decisions tomorrow about headlines for the southern three
quarters of the area for Sunday and possibly Monday mornings. The
500-1000mb thicknesses are around 537-540DM by Sunday morning with
very light winds and clear skies.
Lows on Monday morning may be a few degrees warmer as the surface
ridge slides further east. Not much in the way of advection at this
time though and the dry conditions with light winds...may require a
downward tweak of the lows for Monday morning. By Tuesday...we will
see the winds finally swing around to the south as the ridge moves
further east so there will be an increase in the thicknesses and 850
mb temps...therefore we should see above freezing temperatures on
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Daytime highs through the extended will show a gradual warming trend
as well from the 40s on Sunday to the around 60 degrees F by Tuesday
and Wednesday.
Storm track remains well to the north so no precipitation is
expected through the period. Adolphson
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs, MVFR ceilings are expected to mix out during the
next hour, to be replaced by primarily VFR conditions through the
remainder of the period. Southerly winds will gust in the 25-30 kt
range this afternoon, then will gradually decrease to around 10 kts
after sunset. A cold front will bring winds around to the northwest
between 10-14z Thursday, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
mainly behind the frontal boundary.
Laflin
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
104 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.UPDATE...ONE LAST UPDATE TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE TEMPERATURE AT KHJH AND KK61 HAVE REMAINED NEARLY
STEADY IF NOT FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THERE IS
LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO REBOUND. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST ALL
OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY SKY...DEWPOINT AND
WIND GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
THROUGH 04Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 04Z-09Z...AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. CEILINGS NEAR 600FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THE PREDOMINANT CEILING
WILL PRESENT IFR CONDITIONS AND SUCH AS BEEN FORECAST IN THE TAF.
-RA STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET AT THE TERMINAL
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY 04Z-09Z. -RA SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS
09Z...WITH -DZ THEN POSSIBLE 09Z-15Z. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED NEAR 18KTS AND GUSTING NEAR 25KTS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. MUCH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...WITH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK AS A RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 90KTS
NEAR 150MB PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC VIA THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS BUT LIKE THE JET
AXIS...MUCH OF THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS RELEGATED TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC JUST
OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS A RESULT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF CLOUD OVER
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE
200-600FT AGL RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA. OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS OUR
AREA ALSO SUGGEST FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1-5SM RANGE.
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL
SITES ACROSS THE CWA ARE NOW ABOVE 1/4SM AND AS A RESULT...THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GOING MUCH OF
ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO
SETTLING IN POST-FROPA. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD AND DECREASED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A TOUCH...BUT EVEN THEN MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NOT REQUIRED AS THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL IN HAND.
BY FAR THE GREATEST DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENTED TO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE IT WAS EARLIER BELIEVED SLOWER FROPA WOULD
PRESENT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA...BUT NOW THAT THE
FRONT HAS CLEARED AND STRATUS HAS SET IN...FEEL CONFIDENT
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 60S EVEN DOWN THAT WAY.
ALSO WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED HOURLY DATA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST REPORTS OF 1/4 VISIBILITY AT AUTOMATED
AWOS SITES NEAR STOCKTON...OSBORNE AND BELOIT KS...WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES TO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG HEADLINE
AND ALLOWED SEVERAL COUNTIES ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE TO DROP. THAT
BEING SAID...LOCALIZED VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO WELL UNDER 1 MILE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE. MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPS MAY STILL BE 10+ DEGREES TOO HIGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA DESPITE EARLIER CUTS...AS MOST
MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PERFORM INCREDIBLY POORLY ON DAYTIME
TEMPS EVEN JUST 12-24 HOURS OUT THANKS TO DOMINANT STRATUS TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WEATHER CHALLENGES DURING THESE NEXT 72 HOURS OCCUR DURING THE
FIRST 24...AS LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY
TO WHAT SHOULD BE FAR THE BEST 6-12 HOUR WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL KS TO
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE...OR BARELY CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AROUND MITCHELL COUNTY KS. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
AREA AROUND 1003MB EXTENDED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHEAST CO. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WAS
EXPERIENCING STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH...EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SPEEDS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. JUST
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS...DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED 24
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THIS FAIRLY NARROW SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A BROAD LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY DUAL 500MB
CLOSED LOWS...ONE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUE IS DENSE FOG
TRENDS...AND THE HANDLING OF THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. EARLIER LET
SEVERAL OF THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES EXPIRE...AS INCREASING NORTH
WINDS HAD SUFFICIENTLY MIXED VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 1/4
MILE...AND A GLANCE AT LATEST OBS AND VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COULD PROBABLY BE EXPIRED SHORTLY AS
WELL...SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES PRIOR TO 1130Z.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GETS HUNG UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN CO...WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME PERIOD THROUGH
00Z...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE A MENTION OF GENERALLY NON-
MEASURABLE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2
CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 850MB...AND ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE
TELLTALE BLOTCHY LIGHT QPF FIELDS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE NAM/GFS. ANY
POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO FOCUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT EVEN FORM AT ALL BEFORE SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...AFTER BIG BUSTS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN MOST AREAS...YET ANOTHER VERY DICEY SETUP
PRESENTS ITSELF TODAY...AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHOULD DOMINATE ALL
BUT MAYBE A FEW FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY
LONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. BASED HEAVILY ON 00Z MET/00Z NAM
GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO SLASH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 7-10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...NOW AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S
NORTH...ONLY LOW-MID 50S TRI-CITIES AND A MIX OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. THAT BEING
SAID...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS THE LATEST HRRR VALID THROUGH
20Z SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS MAY STILL BE AIMED
WAY TOO WARM. IT MIGHT VERY WELL TURN OUT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA STRUGGLES TO RISE MORE THAN 5-8 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES
EARLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED STORMS COULD FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA...THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE A STEADY IGNITION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LIKELY 60-70 POPS WERE MAINTAINED. WITH THE 06Z NAM ADVERTISING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SEVERAL
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...HAVE
CONTINUED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL-STORM WORDING IN THE
HWO...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBS ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OR LONG-
LASTING STRONG/SEVERE EVENT THOUGH. TURNING TO OTHER OVERNIGHT
ELEMENTS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA IN PARTS OF VALLEY/DAWSON COUNTIES COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A
VERY LIGHT DUSTING...IF IT EVEN ACCUMULATES AT ALL...AS MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL FOCUS 50+ MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR A FORMAL WIND ADVISORY...A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE SURGE
OVERNIGHT COULD EASILY BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-30 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CHANGED LOW TEMPS LITTLE RANGING
FROM MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY AVERAGE UNDER
0.25-INCH...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM-ENHANCED
CORRIDORS.
TURNING TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP-FREE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...PULLED NEARLY ALL POPS FROM THE MORNING PERIOD...BUT
DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME FAR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A
QUICKLY DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHERWISE...THURS
WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-25 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS AS INCREASING SUNSHINE RESULTS IN INCREASED MIXING.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS WITH A CHILLY DAY IN STORE
RANGING MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. THURS NIGHT...A TRAILING
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AS CLOSE AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...BUT ONLY PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AS NORTH WINDS DECREASE. LOWERED LOWS
2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST...NOW
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WHICH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE SINCE OCT. 7TH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY FORECAST
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOISTURE-STARVED PASSING SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING A FEW BATCHES OF PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BREEZES
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA...AND ONLY MADE A VERY SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS TOPPING OUT NO
BETTER THAN MID-UPPER 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPS COULD REALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN SOME AREAS OR POSSIBLY BE HELD UP BY PLENTY OF
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY PLAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXITING THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. LATEST GLOBAL SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SWINGING THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING... KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO
NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
FACT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START OFF
THE NEW WEEK...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB APPROXIMATELY 10C BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB FROM THE 40S ON SATURDAY...TO THE
LOWER 60S IN SPOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ACTUALLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE
CURRENT PATTERN PANS OUT...CONTINUED PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR HALLOWEEN...WHICH LIES JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
CLIMBING IN THE MID 60S NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
104 PM UPDATE/AVIATION/1112 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
709 AM UPDATE/SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
THROUGH 04Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 04Z-09Z...AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. CEILINGS NEAR 600FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THE PREDOMINANT CEILING
WILL PRESENT IFR CONDITIONS AND SUCH AS BEEN FORECAST IN THE TAF.
-RA STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET AT THE TERMINAL
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY 04Z-09Z. -RA SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS
09Z...WITH -DZ THEN POSSIBLE 09Z-15Z. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED NEAR 18KTS AND GUSTING NEAR 25KTS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. MUCH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...WITH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK AS A RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 90KTS
NEAR 150MB PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC VIA THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS BUT LIKE THE JET
AXIS...MUCH OF THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS RELEGATED TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC JUST
OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS A RESULT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF CLOUD OVER
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE
200-600FT AGL RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA. OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS OUR
AREA ALSO SUGGEST FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1-5SM RANGE.
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL
SITES ACROSS THE CWA ARE NOW ABOVE 1/4SM AND AS A RESULT...THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GOING MUCH OF
ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO
SETTLING IN POST-FROPA. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD AND DECREASED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A TOUCH...BUT EVEN THEN MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NOT REQUIRED AS THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL IN HAND.
BY FAR THE GREATEST DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENTED TO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE IT WAS EARLIER BELIEVED SLOWER FROPA WOULD
PRESENT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA...BUT NOW THAT THE
FRONT HAS CLEARED AND STRATUS HAS SET IN...FEEL CONFIDENT
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 60S EVEN DOWN THAT WAY.
ALSO WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED HOURLY DATA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST REPORTS OF 1/4 VISIBILITY AT AUTOMATED
AWOS SITES NEAR STOCKTON...OSBORNE AND BELOIT KS...WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES TO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG HEADLINE
AND ALLOWED SEVERAL COUNTIES ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE TO DROP. THAT
BEING SAID...LOCALIZED VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO WELL UNDER 1 MILE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE. MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPS MAY STILL BE 10+ DEGREES TOO HIGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA DESPITE EARLIER CUTS...AS MOST
MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PERFORM INCREDIBLY POORLY ON DAYTIME
TEMPS EVEN JUST 12-24 HOURS OUT THANKS TO DOMINANT STRATUS TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WEATHER CHALLENGES DURING THESE NEXT 72 HOURS OCCUR DURING THE
FIRST 24...AS LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY
TO WHAT SHOULD BE FAR THE BEST 6-12 HOUR WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL KS TO
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE...OR BARELY CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AROUND MITCHELL COUNTY KS. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
AREA AROUND 1003MB EXTENDED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHEAST CO. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WAS
EXPERIENCING STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH...EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SPEEDS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. JUST
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS...DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED 24
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THIS FAIRLY NARROW SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A BROAD LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY DUAL 500MB
CLOSED LOWS...ONE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUE IS DENSE FOG
TRENDS...AND THE HANDLING OF THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. EARLIER LET
SEVERAL OF THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES EXPIRE...AS INCREASING NORTH
WINDS HAD SUFFICIENTLY MIXED VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 1/4
MILE...AND A GLANCE AT LATEST OBS AND VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COULD PROBABLY BE EXPIRED SHORTLY AS
WELL...SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES PRIOR TO 1130Z.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GETS HUNG UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN CO...WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME PERIOD THROUGH
00Z...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE A MENTION OF GENERALLY NON-
MEASURABLE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2
CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 850MB...AND ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE
TELLTALE BLOTCHY LIGHT QPF FIELDS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE NAM/GFS. ANY
POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO FOCUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT EVEN FORM AT ALL BEFORE SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...AFTER BIG BUSTS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN MOST AREAS...YET ANOTHER VERY DICEY SETUP
PRESENTS ITSELF TODAY...AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHOULD DOMINATE ALL
BUT MAYBE A FEW FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY
LONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. BASED HEAVILY ON 00Z MET/00Z NAM
GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO SLASH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 7-10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...NOW AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S
NORTH...ONLY LOW-MID 50S TRI-CITIES AND A MIX OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. THAT BEING
SAID...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS THE LATEST HRRR VALID THROUGH
20Z SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS MAY STILL BE AIMED
WAY TOO WARM. IT MIGHT VERY WELL TURN OUT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA STRUGGLES TO RISE MORE THAN 5-8 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES
EARLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED STORMS COULD FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA...THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE A STEADY IGNITION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LIKELY 60-70 POPS WERE MAINTAINED. WITH THE 06Z NAM ADVERTISING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SEVERAL
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...HAVE
CONTINUED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL-STORM WORDING IN THE
HWO...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBS ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OR LONG-
LASTING STRONG/SEVERE EVENT THOUGH. TURNING TO OTHER OVERNIGHT
ELEMENTS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA IN PARTS OF VALLEY/DAWSON COUNTIES COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A
VERY LIGHT DUSTING...IF IT EVEN ACCUMULATES AT ALL...AS MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL FOCUS 50+ MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR A FORMAL WIND ADVISORY...A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE SURGE
OVERNIGHT COULD EASILY BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-30 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CHANGED LOW TEMPS LITTLE RANGING
FROM MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY AVERAGE UNDER
0.25-INCH...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM-ENHANCED
CORRIDORS.
TURNING TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP-FREE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...PULLED NEARLY ALL POPS FROM THE MORNING PERIOD...BUT
DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME FAR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A
QUICKLY DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHERWISE...THURS
WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-25 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS AS INCREASING SUNSHINE RESULTS IN INCREASED MIXING.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS WITH A CHILLY DAY IN STORE
RANGING MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. THURS NIGHT...A TRAILING
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AS CLOSE AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...BUT ONLY PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AS NORTH WINDS DECREASE. LOWERED LOWS
2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST...NOW
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WHICH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE SINCE OCT. 7TH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY FORECAST
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOISTURE-STARVED PASSING SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING A FEW BATCHES OF PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BREEZES
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA...AND ONLY MADE A VERY SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS TOPPING OUT NO
BETTER THAN MID-UPPER 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPS COULD REALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN SOME AREAS OR POSSIBLY BE HELD UP BY PLENTY OF
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY PLAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXITING THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. LATEST GLOBAL SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SWINGING THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING... KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO
NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
FACT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START OFF
THE NEW WEEK...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB APPROXIMATELY 10C BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB FROM THE 40S ON SATURDAY...TO THE
LOWER 60S IN SPOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ACTUALLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE
CURRENT PATTERN PANS OUT...CONTINUED PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR HALLOWEEN...WHICH LIES JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
CLIMBING IN THE MID 60S NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/1112 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
709 AM UPDATE/SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1112 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. MUCH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...WITH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK AS A RESULT...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 90KTS
NEAR 150MB PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC VIA THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS BUT LIKE THE JET
AXIS...MUCH OF THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS RELEGATED TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC JUST
OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS A RESULT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF CLOUD OVER
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE
200-600FT AGL RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA. OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS OUR
AREA ALSO SUGGEST FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1-5SM RANGE.
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL
SITES ACROSS THE CWA ARE NOW ABOVE 1/4SM AND AS A RESULT...THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GOING MUCH OF
ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO
SETTLING IN POST-FROPA. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD AND DECREASED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A TOUCH...BUT EVEN THEN MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NOT REQUIRED AS THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL IN HAND.
BY FAR THE GREATEST DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENTED TO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE IT WAS EARLIER BELIEVED SLOWER FROPA WOULD
PRESENT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA...BUT NOW THAT THE
FRONT HAS CLEARED AND STRATUS HAS SET IN...FEEL CONFIDENT
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 60S EVEN DOWN THAT WAY.
ALSO WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED HOURLY DATA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST REPORTS OF 1/4 VISIBILITY AT AUTOMATED
AWOS SITES NEAR STOCKTON...OSBORNE AND BELOIT KS...WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES TO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG HEADLINE
AND ALLOWED SEVERAL COUNTIES ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE TO DROP. THAT
BEING SAID...LOCALIZED VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO WELL UNDER 1 MILE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE. MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPS MAY STILL BE 10+ DEGREES TOO HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DESPITE EARLIER CUTS...AS MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO PERFORM INCREDIBLY POORLY ON DAYTIME TEMPS EVEN JUST
12-24 HOURS OUT THANKS TO DOMINANT STRATUS TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL TODAY...AS ALTHOUGH LIFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
24/12Z-24/16Z...IFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...AND INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHERLY AT 15-18KTS...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25KTS AT TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WEATHER CHALLENGES DURING THESE NEXT 72 HOURS OCCUR DURING THE
FIRST 24...AS LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY
TO WHAT SHOULD BE FAR THE BEST 6-12 HOUR WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL KS TO
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE...OR BARELY CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AROUND MITCHELL COUNTY KS. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
AREA AROUND 1003MB EXTENDED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHEAST CO. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WAS
EXPERIENCING STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH...EXCEPT
FOR LIGHTER SPEEDS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. JUST
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS...DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED 24
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THIS FAIRLY NARROW SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A BROAD LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY DUAL 500MB
CLOSED LOWS...ONE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUE IS DENSE FOG
TRENDS...AND THE HANDLING OF THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. EARLIER LET
SEVERAL OF THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES EXPIRE...AS INCREASING NORTH
WINDS HAD SUFFICIENTLY MIXED VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 1/4
MILE...AND A GLANCE AT LATEST OBS AND VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COULD PROBABLY BE EXPIRED
SHORTLY AS WELL...SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES PRIOR TO 1130Z.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GETS HUNG UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN CO...WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME PERIOD THROUGH
00Z...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE A MENTION OF GENERALLY NON-
MEASURABLE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2
CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 850MB...AND ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE
TELLTALE BLOTCHY LIGHT QPF FIELDS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE NAM/GFS. ANY
POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO FOCUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT EVEN FORM AT ALL BEFORE SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...AFTER BIG BUSTS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN MOST AREAS...YET ANOTHER VERY DICEY SETUP
PRESENTS ITSELF TODAY...AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHOULD DOMINATE ALL
BUT MAYBE A FEW FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY
LONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. BASED HEAVILY ON 00Z MET/00Z NAM
GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO SLASH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT LEAST 7-10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...NOW AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S
NORTH...ONLY LOW-MID 50S TRI-CITIES AND A MIX OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. THAT BEING
SAID...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS THE LATEST HRRR VALID THROUGH
20Z SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS MAY STILL BE AIMED
WAY TOO WARM. IT MIGHT VERY WELL TURN OUT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA STRUGGLES TO RISE MORE THAN 5-8 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES
EARLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED STORMS COULD FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA...THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE A STEADY IGNITION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LIKELY 60-70 POPS WERE MAINTAINED. WITH THE 06Z NAM ADVERTISING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SEVERAL
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...HAVE
CONTINUED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL-STORM WORDING IN THE
HWO...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBS ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OR LONG-
LASTING STRONG/SEVERE EVENT THOUGH. TURNING TO OTHER OVERNIGHT
ELEMENTS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA IN PARTS OF VALLEY/DAWSON COUNTIES COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A
VERY LIGHT DUSTING...IF IT EVEN ACCUMULATES AT ALL...AS MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL FOCUS 50+ MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR A FORMAL WIND ADVISORY...A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE SURGE
OVERNIGHT COULD EASILY BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-30 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CHANGED LOW TEMPS LITTLE RANGING
FROM MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY AVERAGE UNDER
0.25-INCH...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM-ENHANCED
CORRIDORS.
TURNING TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE PRECIP-FREE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...PULLED NEARLY ALL POPS FROM THE MORNING PERIOD...BUT
DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME FAR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF A
QUICKLY DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHERWISE...THURS
WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-25 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS AS INCREASING SUNSHINE RESULTS IN INCREASED MIXING.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS WITH A CHILLY DAY IN STORE
RANGING MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. THURS NIGHT...A TRAILING
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AS CLOSE AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...BUT ONLY PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AS NORTH WINDS DECREASE. LOWERED LOWS
2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST...NOW
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WHICH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE SINCE OCT. 7TH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY FORECAST
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOISTURE-STARVED PASSING SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING A FEW BATCHES OF PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BREEZES
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA...AND ONLY MADE A VERY SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS TOPPING OUT NO
BETTER THAN MID-UPPER 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPS COULD REALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN SOME AREAS OR POSSIBLY BE HELD UP BY PLENTY OF
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY PLAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXITING THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
LATEST GLOBAL SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SWINGING THE AXIS
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
APPROXIMATELY 10C BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB FROM THE
40S ON SATURDAY...TO THE LOWER 60S IN SPOTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE CURRENT PATTERN PANS
OUT...CONTINUED PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR
HALLOWEEN...WHICH LIES JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING IN THE MID
60S NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1112 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
709 AM UPDATE/SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4KM NAM...ARE
NOT CAPTURING THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA AND
THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF PA. THROUGH THE NEXT 4 HOURS WILL DO
A STRIPE OF LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ELMIRA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
BINGHAMTON...DOWN THROUGH SAYRE...MONTROSE...SCRANTON...AND
DINGMANS FERRY. OTHERWISE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
STALLED OR JUST A SLIGHT JOG NORTH BY LATE TODAY...CHANCE POPS
TODAY LOOK GOOD IN THE GENERAL AREA SEEING RAIN NOW. BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRY DAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
3 AM UPDATE... WMFNT HAS WASHED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FA
EXTNDG ACRS CNTRL PA AND TWD PHILLY PA. VORT MAX IS ROTATING ALONG
THE STATE LINE AND DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
THIS IS RESULTING IN -SHRAS RIGHT ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. WITH VRY
MINIMAL DWPT DEPRESSIONS CWA-WIDE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACRS CNTRL NY
AND NEPA. LOCALES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE DENSE AT TIMES WITH
AVG VSBYS GNRLY RANGING FM 1/2 TO 3 MILES. THUS HV ISSUED SPS TO
COVER THIS AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SEEMS TO BE OVERKILL.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON SCTD SHOWERS WL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY LATE
AFTN. TO ACCNT FOR ANY -SHRAS THAT MAY POP UP HV GNRLY GONE 30-40
POPS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO BREAK OUT IN MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND CANNOT FORESEE MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE RANGE OF THE MID-60S, ESPECIALLY AFTER YDAS POOR
PERFORMANCE UNDER CLDY CONDS. THUS HV GONE WITH HRLY TEMPS FM THE
LAV AND HV LOWERED THESE MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WITH PLACES IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST IN THE LWR 60S AND ELSEWHERE RMNG IN THE U50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE... ISOLD SHOWERS WL CONT THRU MIDNIGHT BFR
TRANSITIONING TO PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS THE FAR SRN ZONES. SFC HIPRES
OVR WRN QUEBEC WL BUILD SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SRLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THO QPF AMNTS WL BE MINIMAL THRU 12Z
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. THO SRLY
FLOW DOES NOT EXTND MUCH ABV THE SFC TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEPTH ENUF
MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT DUE TO THE WASHED OUT WMFNT TO KEEP DRIZZLE
GOING THRU PORTIONS OF THE DAY ON THUR.
BY THUR AFTN, SKIES WL CLR FM WEST TO EAST AND WITH SRLY FLOW ACRS
THE REGION H8 TEMPS WL SOAR TO BTWN 12C TO 14C. THIS WL YIELD HIGHS
IN THE LWR 70S FOR THE LK PLAIN WITH SERN ZONES STUCK IN THE 60S
UNDER CLD CVR.
AS HIPRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY OCCLUDED FNT WL APPCH
FM THE WEST. NAM BRINGS PCPN INTO WRN AND CNTRL ZONES BY 00Z SAT,
WHILE EURO IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED BRINGING PCPN JUST INTO WRN NY BY
THIS TIME, GFS IS THE SLOWEST WITH QPF STILL BACK IN NWRN OH. THUS
WL MAKE VRY FEW CHGS TO FRI/FRI NGT FCST WITH SLGT CHC POPS EXPECTED
THRU 12Z SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTD WITH MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE SANDY AND THE WEATHER WITH THE STORM. 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW DOES INDEED CAPTURE THE TROPICAL STORM AND SLAM
IT INTO THE NEW ENGLAND CST ONLY TO STALL IT OVER THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WED. PRVS 00Z ECMWF DOWNRIGHT SCARY...ESP FOR CSTL NY/NJ
WITH THE STORM LEFT TURNING A CPL HNDRD MILES FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CNTRL NJ BEFORE STALLING AS EARLY AS TUE. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE TRENDED TWRD A MORE WWRD TRACK...SO THE BOTTOMLINE IT IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THIS SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BE
IMPACTING CNTRL NEW YORK AND NE PENNSYLVANIA IN THE XTNDD PD.
SO...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THAT IMPACT BE.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT ANY "PRE" PCPN
WLD REMAIN MSTLY WEST OF THE FCST AREA ON LATE SUN AND EARLY
MON...GOOD NEWS FOR FLOODING CNCRNS FOR SURE. ECMWF THEN...WITH
IT/S SRN TRACK...WLD THEN PUT MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER AND AREA
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM MON INTO EARLY TUE...ESP IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CATS AND POCONOS...AS THE PERSISTENT SELY
FLOW CONTS.
OTR DFRNCS INCLUDE THE PSBLTY OF ANY SNOW...AND WITH THE GFS/S
MORE NRN TRACK...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...PARTICULARY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BRDR...MAY BE COLD ENUF LATE IN THE PD FOR SOME
FRZN PCPN. ALSO...MORE DIRECT TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS THE PSBLTY
OF HIER WINDS AS EARLY AS MON...WHILE THE GFS IS AT LEAST 24 HRS
LTR.
FOR THE GRIDS...DECIDED THERE WAS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO STRAY
MUCH FROM THE HPC GUID...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A NICE COMPROMISE OF
THE DFRNT SOLNS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STALLED FNTL BNDRY WILL KEEP LOW CLDS AND VSBY WITH IFR CONDS THRU
THE TAF PD. TEMPOPRARY XCPTN IS AT AVP WHERE CLRG HAS BROKEN
OUT...BUT AS NGT FALLS...LL MOISTURE AND A VERY STABLE SNDG WILL
BRING LOW CLDS BACK TO THE STATION. ELSEWHERE...SOME BRIEF IMPRVMT
PSBL THIS AFTN AS LIMITED HHTG THRU A FEW BRLKS IN THE CLDS HELPS
TO MIX UP SOME OF THE CIGS AND VSBYS. TNGT...BNDRY REMAINS IN
PLACE ANS WITH PLENTY OF MOSITURE...XPCT CIGS AND VSBYS TO ONCE
AGAIN LWR TO LIFR IN SOME PLACES...ESP THE HIER STATIONS LIKE BGM
AND ITH. SOME IMPRVMT AGAIN AFT 12Z THU AS THE MODELS SOME DRYING
OF THE LL ALLOWING FOR SLOW INCREASES IN CIGS AND VSBYS.
LGT SELY FLOW ALONG THE BNDRY AND THRU THE AREA WILL CONT FOR THE
TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN...IMPROVING TO VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT/SUN/MON...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...UNSEASONABLY COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
EASTERN MONTANA TO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH NO MEASUREABLE REPORTS AT THIS TIME AND
LITTLE SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL WEBCAMS. LOWERED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH GOOD CONTINUITY...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREAFTER...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS
TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THAT
SAID...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXISTS IN HOW FAST THIS RIDGE WILL BE ABLE
TO BE PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSTREAM
INTERACTIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUITE HAS HAD A BIT OF TROUBLE HANDLING THE
LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE HRRR WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST ACCURATE DEPICTION AS OF 19 UTC.
KISN...KDIK...KBIS AND POSSIBLY KMOT MAY BREAK OUT OF THE STRATUS
TEMPORARILY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 03-04 UTC
TIMEFRAME...WITH MVFR CEILINGS THE LIKELY FLIGHT CATEGORY. FLURRIES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KISN AND KMOT...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HW
LONG TERM....AYD
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1058 AM PDT Wed Oct 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A band of rain and mountain snow will move through the
area today and tonight. The weather will generally be quiet on
Thursday before the next weather system arrives Friday with
additional storms for the weekend. More precipitation is expected
into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Updated the Winter Weather Advisory to increase the forecast snow
amounts a bit. Wentchee mountain sensors are reporting 4-5" at
this point. HRRR model suggests that the heaviest snow is
decreasing there right now and will end by about 2pm. Additionally
the METRo model shows road temps warming to near 40F so travel
should be much better this afternoon across Blewett Pass.
Further to the north the snow will continue into the evening but
Loup Loup road temps are road temps are already 35F and will
continue to melt any falling snow. The road temps are forecast to
fall to freezing by 7pm so we could see some re-accumulation there
if the snow is still falling by then.
Waterville cam continues to show snow, but roads are just wet so
no advisory needed there.
HRRR and NAM continue to show precip arriving in Spokane around
3pm and then ending in the evening as the band of rain/snow moves
into the northern/eastern mountains. The models actually show a
rotating spiral (i.e. vort max) in the reflectivity progs over
Wenatchee moving north to around Omak overnight but then changing
course and diving southeastward over Spokane area on Thursday for
more showers. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An area of rain and mountain snow will slowly move
across the area today and this evening. Expect widespread mtn
obscuration in the Cascades today and the northern/eastern
mountains this evening. METAR Ceilings in the rain will lower to
MVFR/IFR levels but should rebound to VFR after the rain ends.
However, as skies clear IFR fog and stratus will form overnight at
some of the TAF locations, mainly in the Basin and the Spokane
area. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 43 34 43 33 43 31 / 80 80 20 10 50 40
Coeur d`Alene 43 34 44 32 43 30 / 70 70 50 10 50 40
Pullman 42 32 42 30 42 30 / 70 40 40 10 60 40
Lewiston 47 36 48 35 47 36 / 70 60 30 10 60 30
Colville 44 34 47 30 46 28 / 60 90 50 10 50 40
Sandpoint 43 33 43 29 43 29 / 30 80 60 10 40 40
Kellogg 39 33 38 26 40 29 / 70 80 60 20 50 60
Moses Lake 46 31 48 34 47 31 / 40 10 10 10 40 20
Wenatchee 45 32 48 36 46 34 / 70 10 10 10 50 20
Omak 44 30 48 32 48 32 / 90 90 10 10 50 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$