Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/21/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
514 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING...AND THEN BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OCCLUDED 998 MB LOW WAS NEAR CHICAGO AT 19Z. WEAK SFC WAVE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 15Z. WEAK SFC WAVE REMAINS NEAR BALTIMORE...WITH
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING E TO PHILADELPHIA AND TO THE CENTRAL
NJ COAST.
BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT IN
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ARE MAXIMIZED. LLJ SHOULD LIFT NE BY 22Z-23Z...THEN LATEST RAP
INDICATES ANOTHER FAVORABLE LL CONVERGENCE/UL DIVERGENCE COUPLET
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND/CT FOR A FEW HOURS BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EARLIER HRRR INDICATED THAT SCT SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO FORM NW OF NYC INTO THIS EVENING ON EDGE OF MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT.
AFTER ANY PRECIP ENDS...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND...NEAR 60 IN NYC TO THE
50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AS WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND STRONGER SW FLOW COMMENCES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BREEZY CONDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW LIFTS INTO SE CANADA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEG EITHER SIDE OF
70...WARMEST IN NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO SE CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE IN BEHIND IT
WITH A DEPARTING STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA...SO HAVE THEREFORE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK PROVIDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. ONLY CHANCE
FOR PRECIP IN THE PERIOD IS ON TUESDAY WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD OUT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
MIDWEST. UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE UPPER FLOW AT THIS
TIME CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING TUESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIP THROUGH WED MORNING.
ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDICATING
MORE PRECIP FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN WITH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE UPPER FLOW AGAIN. ECMWF IS
QUICK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN. GFS LAGS BEHIND WITH A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW
OVER MINNESOTA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT W OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NYC/NJ TERMINALS AND IFR CONDS
ELSEWHERE LIKELY THIS EVENING. AFTER DARK...EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO
TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG BEGIN TO REDEVELOP. VIS MAY
DROP LOWER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN INTO THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE IS KSWF. CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION IN TAFS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIGHT SRLY OR LGT/VRB SFC FLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH 10-12Z SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY
THROUGH THE EVENING. CHANCE FOR VIS 1/2SM OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT AFTERNOON-TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS PSBL SUN-MON.
.WEDNESDAY...SUB VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT-SAT NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN. SWELLS 5-7
FT SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND SUBSIDE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO
4-6 FT SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW SAT MAY GUST TO 25
KT ON THE OCEAN AND ERN SOUND BY SAT EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCEAN
SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON SUNDAY AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT IN A W-NW FLOW.
THESE SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF UP TO 1/4 INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOCAL AMTS
DOUBLE THAT. NO SIG PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG/LN
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/LN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
414 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A WEAK SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING...AND THEN BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OCCLUDED 998 MB LOW WAS NEAR CHICAGO AT 19Z. WEAK SFC WAVE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 15Z. WEAK SFC WAVE REMAINS NEAR BALTIMORE...WITH
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING E TO PHILADELPHIA AND TO THE CENTRAL
NJ COAST.
BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT IN
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ARE MAXIMIZED. LLJ SHOULD LIFT NE BY 22Z-23Z...THEN LATEST RAP
INDICATES ANOTHER FAVORABLE LL CONVERGENCE/UL DIVERGENCE COUPLET
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND/CT FOR A FEW HOURS BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EARLIER HRRR INDICATED THAT SCT SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO FORM NW OF NYC INTO THIS EVENING ON EDGE OF MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT.
AFTER ANY PRECIP ENDS...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND...NEAR 60 IN NYC TO THE
50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AS WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND STRONGER SW FLOW COMMENCES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BREEZY CONDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW LIFTS INTO SE CANADA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEG EITHER SIDE OF
70...WARMEST IN NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO SE CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE IN BEHIND IT
WITH A DEPARTING STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA...SO HAVE THEREFORE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK PROVIDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. ONLY CHANCE
FOR PRECIP IN THE PERIOD IS ON TUESDAY WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD OUT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
MIDWEST. UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE UPPER FLOW AT THIS
TIME CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING TUESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIP THROUGH WED MORNING.
ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDICATING
MORE PRECIP FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN WITH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE UPPER FLOW AGAIN. ECMWF IS
QUICK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN. GFS LAGS BEHIND WITH A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW
OVER MINNESOTA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT W OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS CONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN IS
PUSHING N OF NYC TERMINALS AND MAINLY JUST EXPECTING SCT -SHRA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS FOR NYC AND POINTS E. STEADIER RAIN WILL CONT
FOR KSWF.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING TO VFR ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE
NJ COAST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC NYC TERMINALS...ESP JFK/LGA MAY SEE
OCNL VFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HRS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
AFTER DARK...EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN AS LOW
CLOUDS/FOG BEGIN TO REDEVELOP. VIS MAY DROP LOWER THAN INDICATED IN
TAFS FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIGHT SRLY OR LGT/VRB SFC FLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH 10-12Z SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. CHANCE FOR VIS 1/2SM OR LESS
LATE TONIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR VARIABLE
CEILINGS/VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WINDS BECMG MORE SRLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT AFTERNOON-TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS PSBL SUN-MON.
.WEDNESDAY...SUB VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT-SAT NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN. SWELLS 5-7
FT SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND SUBSIDE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO
4-6 FT SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW SAT MAY GUST TO 25
KT ON THE OCEAN AND ERN SOUND BY SAT EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCEAN
SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON SUNDAY AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT IN A W-NW FLOW.
THESE SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF UP TO 1/4 INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOCAL AMTS
DOUBLE THAT. NO SIG PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG/LN
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/LN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY MIGRATING
EASTWARD WHILE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A GENERALLY
ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY HAS TRANSITIONED TO
A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. UNLIKE THE MOIST ENVIRONMENTS CHARACTERIZED TO
THE EAST OF MANY OF OUR UPPER TROUGH PASSAGES...THE TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS MUCH DRIER OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING WAS SURPRISINGLY DRY WITH A PW OF
ONLY AROUND 1" AND A DEEP LAYER OF DEWPOINT DEPRESSION GREATER THAN
40C. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTER
ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER IT WOULD TAKE QUITE A LOT TO
OVERCOME THIS DEGREE OF DRY AIR AND RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
COVERAGE. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DOUBTFUL THIS WILL OCCUR.
AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY
ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE FL BIG BEND/NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DRY AIR AND LACK OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RESULTING IN ONLY A
VERY NARROW "ROPE" OF SHOWERS FORCED BY THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE
RULE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION AS A STRONGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS DOWN
INTO THE TROUGHS BASE. THE ATMOSPHERIC PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BEGIN A MORE RAPID ADVANCE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NARROW BAND OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS)
TOWARD DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND THEN VERY SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE NATURE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT THIS SCT BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...THE IMPACT
WILL BE QUITE LOW/BRIEF...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ITS PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE...SEEING A FEW SHOWERS DOWN TOWARD
FT MYERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THIS WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND THEN DISSIPATE. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR ZONES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-4 ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THAT IS A LOT OF DISCUSSION ABOUT RAIN...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WET DAY FOR ANY LOCATION. THE SHOWERS...
REGARDLESS OF FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD BE BRIEF.
TONIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD PASSING THE I-4 CORRIDOR AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND APPROACHING OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT ALONG WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL
KEEP ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ISOLATED AT BEST. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70S
SOUTH OF I-4...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MOS
CONSENSUS SUGGEST NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN LOWER/MID 50S UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND.
SATURDAY...FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AROUND FORT MYERS TILL 15Z...AND THEN END
THE ACTIVITY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ON A NORTHERLY
BREEZE AND WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FURTHER
SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT. MOS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT
AT SEEING TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. BRRRR!
SUNDAY..."CHAMBER OF COMMERCE" WEATHER TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER TOP THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO
RAIN CHANCES...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL REPRESENT A
DIURNAL SWING OF UP TO 35 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO... NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS VERY DRY ALOFT WHILE THE
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN
BELOW ABOUT TEN THOUSAND FEET. THE MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BACK TO
BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
NEED TO WATCH SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO CHARLOTTE HARBOR NEAR
PGD. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR OR
PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT
PGD AND LAL THROUGH 13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EASTERN GULF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTH BY SATURDAY. THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL NOT BEGIN
ARRIVING UNTIL TONIGHT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL ZONES TODAY. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL OCCUR FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE FORECAST. MINIMUM VALUES IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
DESPITE THE DRY AIR...DISPERSION INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 75 AND ERC VALUES ARE LOW. THEREFORE...NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. MANY LOCATION...EVEN SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY ARE FORECAST
TO REACH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SLOW INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL THEN
BEGIN DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 69 83 61 / 20 20 0 0
FMY 87 71 86 63 / 20 20 20 0
GIF 89 65 84 58 / 20 20 10 0
SRQ 85 69 83 60 / 10 20 10 0
BKV 87 61 83 47 / 20 20 0 0
SPG 86 72 83 67 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
407 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN EXPAND OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-DAWN...AT THE SURFACE 07Z ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WAS
NEAR A LINE FROM AUGUSTA TO MACON GEORGIA WITH MUCH DRIER DEW
POINTS TO THE W AT KCSG AND NATL. A POTENT 90 KT 500 MB JET SEGMENT
ACROSS N GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THE AIR MASS OVER SE
GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT EXTREMELY UNSTABLE IN TANDEM WITH 35 KT OF DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR. CONVECTIVE RAINS IN BATCHES RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH A FEW COLDER TOPS ON SATELLITE DEVELOPING TO THE S OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AND SCATTERED DOWNPOURS MOVING E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND
3-HR DATA...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY IS NARROW. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ONGOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DECREASING OVER INLAND
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT CLOSES IN.
TODAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BE
THE FEATURE OF NOTE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A PUNCH OF MUCH DRIER
AIR IN IT/S WAKE POISED TO END THE RAIN CHANCES AND DELIVER CLEARING
SKIES. ELEVATED OVERNIGHT 925 MB DEW POINTS NEAR 17C ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUPPLANTED BY -1C TO 6C DEW POINTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE ALSO BECOMES VERY DRY AND WE THINK SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MUCH LOWER SURFACE DEW
POINTS LATER TODAY WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
THANKS TO DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND LACK OF SUSTAINED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING
IS FORECAST TO DIG RAPIDLY SE INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION LATER
TODAY THEN SHARPEN A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE OVER GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYERED DRIER AIR UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OTHER THAN OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TO SW IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE AND WE MADE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHT/S LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO
50-55 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES WOULD ONLY GIVE US HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD NUDGE THOSE
READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. BY MONDAY THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES WHICH
WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS TOWARD 80 DEGREES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHT INDICATIONS
OF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND
VICINITY SHOWERS ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAF/S ONLY MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK. WE HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPO PERIODS FOR SHOWERS AT KCHS WITH
AN 06Z-09Z INCLUSION AT KSAV GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS
WAKE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM
S AND SW TO THE W AND NW. SURGES WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO MID MORNING
WITH A LIGHT FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO THE SW BEFORE SHIFTING WNW LATE. ANOTHER SURGE IS ANTICIPATED
LATE TONIGHT WITH A 15G20 KT POTENTIAL OVER OUTER WATERS BEYOND
15-20 MILES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE...
HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEAS. LITTLE DEVIATION FROM THE
PREDICTED LEVELS WILL BE NEEDED TO GENERATE SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE AROUND MIDDAY. WE THINK THE FLOW BECOMING
W IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THE
OVERALL RISK FOR TIDE LEVELS TOUCHING 7.0 MLLW AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCLX UPGRADE TO DUAL POLARIZATION IS UNDERWAY. AS A RESULT
RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE DURING THE INSTALLATION AND
TESTING PHASE OF THE UPGRADE WHICH COULD LAST UP TO 2 WEEKS. USERS
ARE URGED TO UTILIZE ADJACENT RADARS DURING THE UPGRADE...WHICH
INCLUDE KLTX...KCAE...KJGX...KVAX AND KJAX.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TONIGHT AND JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES DONE.
STILL HAVE A NARROW BAND OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 3-4K
FOOT BASES SE OF DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN TO THE WABASH RIVER. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AT IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NE INTO
EAST CENTRAL IL. KEEPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY...AND ALSO ADDING AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE SSE WINDS STAY LIGHTER LONGER DURING
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S LOOK ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SSE WINDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
TN AND AL AND RIDGING INTO NE IL AND WI AT MID EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS IL EXCEPT FOR THAT NARROW
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS SE OF DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN. HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPLACHIANS BY DAWN SUNDAY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO IL.
LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING TO BECOME SSE 5-10 MPH BY DAWN SUNDAY AND
BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN IL WHICH WILL KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AS
MUCH. EASTERN IL WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST FOG DEVELOP AFTER 2 AM
AND DISSIPATE BY 9 AM SUNDAY. DID NOT MENTION DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME DUE TO SSE WINDS INCREASING A BIT LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOWS BY DAYBREAK AND COOLEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
3-4K FOOT CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALL SCATTERED OUT OR
CLEAR BY SUNSET EXCEPT AT SPI WHICH IS STILL BROKEN 3500 FT. SPI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT TOO IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED
THE REST OF TONIGHT. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH RETURN SSE
WINDS DURING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT AND DENSENESS OF FOG.
CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR PREVAILING VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPO
2 MILES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH CMI AS LOW AS 1-2
MILES WHERE SSE WINDS STAY LIGHTER LONGER TONIGHT. CMI AND DEC
CURRENTLY HAVE A 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WHILE BMI IS 6F AND SPI AND
PIA 8F SO LESS FOG IN WESTERN AIRPORTS WHERE WINDS PICK UP QUICKER
AND LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD. NAM HITS THE FOG HARDEST LATER
TONIGHT WHILE GFS AND HRRR OUT TO 10Z/5 AM IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD WITH
THE FOG. MOST MODELS LIFT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BY 14Z/9 AM SUNDAY.
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY. BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-4K FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY OVER MO AND SW IA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
FLOW OCCURS INITIALLY AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IL SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER KY/MID TN TO DRIFT EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING SSE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH SSE WINDS 10-13 KTS AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS 14-18 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
INITIAL CONCERNS WILL BE FOR FOG TO FORM TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE DRAMATIC WARM-UP
AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. AN AIRMASS CHANGE BACK TO COOLER
WEATHER WILL BEGIN WITH A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...STARTING A PERIOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...DUE TO MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. THE MOST CLEARING
HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF I-74...WHERE CLEARING LAST NIGHT ALLOWED FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM.
WE EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING BY EVENING THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE WET-BULB TEMPS OVERNIGHT. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY FORM. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
STRATUS/FOG FORMING ALREADY DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL BE ADDING
FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SOME
OF THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9AM ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CRANK UP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THAT MAY
KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN FULL SUN...BUT WE STILL EXPECT
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM MID 70S IN THE SW TO AROUND 70 IN THE NE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP OUR
COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL LATE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND GFS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE POPS.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS INTO IOWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY...KEEPING OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND FIRMLY IN THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE PULLED POPS BACK TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ON TUESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY...HELPING OUR AREA REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE. 850 MB
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 16-17C RANGE. ADIABATIC WARMING SHOULD
PUSH HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR 80 AROUND JACKSONVILLE...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S COMMON.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN BY 12 HOURS...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF DELAYED IT BY 6 HOURS. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF
I-55 IN THE AFTERNOON. WE KEPT THE ALL-BLEND POPS FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS WHICH ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...TRENDS
MAY BE FOR MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY. IF THAT
HAPPENS...OUR CURRENT HIGHS WILL BE A BIT TOO LOW...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE LATEST MODELS IS THAT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SLOWER
SCENARIO WOULD KEEP RAIN IN OUR FORECAST THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL IN
AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF BY 3-4C. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...KEEPING WARM AIR SHUNTED TO THE WEST OF ILLINOIS.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
658 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
INITIAL CONCERNS WILL BE FOR FOG TO FORM TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE DRAMATIC WARM-UP
AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. AN AIRMASS CHANGE BACK TO COOLER
WEATHER WILL BEGIN WITH A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...STARTING A PERIOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...DUE TO MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. THE MOST CLEARING
HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF I-74...WHERE CLEARING LAST NIGHT ALLOWED FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM.
WE EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING BY EVENING THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE WET-BULB TEMPS OVERNIGHT. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY FORM. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
STRATUS/FOG FORMING ALREADY DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL BE ADDING
FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SOME
OF THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9AM ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CRANK UP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THAT MAY
KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN FULL SUN...BUT WE STILL EXPECT
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM MID 70S IN THE SW TO AROUND 70 IN THE NE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP OUR
COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL LATE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND GFS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE POPS.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS INTO IOWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY...KEEPING OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND FIRMLY IN THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE PULLED POPS BACK TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ON TUESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY...HELPING OUR AREA REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE. 850 MB
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 16-17C RANGE. ADIABATIC WARMING SHOULD
PUSH HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR 80 AROUND JACKSONVILLE...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S COMMON.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN BY 12 HOURS...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF DELAYED IT BY 6 HOURS. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF
I-55 IN THE AFTERNOON. WE KEPT THE ALL-BLEND POPS FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS WHICH ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...TRENDS
MAY BE FOR MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY. IF THAT
HAPPENS...OUR CURRENT HIGHS WILL BE A BIT TOO LOW...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE LATEST MODELS IS THAT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SLOWER
SCENARIO WOULD KEEP RAIN IN OUR FORECAST THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL IN
AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF BY 3-4C. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...KEEPING WARM AIR SHUNTED TO THE WEST OF ILLINOIS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
3-4K FOOT CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALL SCATTERED OUT OR
CLEAR BY SUNSET EXCEPT AT SPI WHICH IS STILL BROKEN 3500 FT. SPI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT TOO IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED
THE REST OF TONIGHT. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH RETURN SSE
WINDS DURING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT AND DENSENESS OF FOG.
CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR PREVAILING VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPO
2 MILES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH CMI AS LOW AS 1-2
MILES WHERE SSE WINDS STAY LIGHTER LONGER TONIGHT. CMI AND DEC
CURRENTLY HAVE A 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WHILE BMI IS 6F AND SPI AND
PIA 8F SO LESS FOG IN WESTERN AIRPORTS WHERE WINDS PICK UP QUICKER
AND LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD. NAM HITS THE FOG HARDEST LATER
TONIGHT WHILE GFS AND HRRR OUT TO 10Z/5 AM IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD WITH
THE FOG. MOST MODELS LIFT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BY 14Z/9 AM SUNDAY.
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY. BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-4K FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY OVER MO AND SW IA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
FLOW OCCURS INITIALLY AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IL SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER KY/MID TN TO DRIFT EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING SSE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH SSE WINDS 10-13 KTS AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS 14-18 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
223 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
925 PM CDT
A MASSIVE STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. TO EXPRESS HOW
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP THIS LOW IS...THIS SYSTEM HAS DIPPED THE
TROPOPAUSE DOWN TO NEAR 400 MB ON AREA RAOBS...WITH 250 MB
TEMPERATURES 13C DEGREES WARMER IN THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
/DUE TO STRATOSPHERIC FOLDING/. MULTIPLE MID AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO TWIRL AROUND EACH OTHER. SEVERAL SUCH
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ARE IN A WRAPAROUND TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND
GRADUAL ASCENT OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON RAP ISENTROPIC FIELDS INTO OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AS THE LOW CENTER EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA. GENERAL DRIZZLE WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
THE PREVAILING RAIN MODE. EARLIER PRIOR TO SUNSET THERE WERE A
FEW 40 DBZ ECHOES NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL...AND A FEW PUBLIC
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WERE REPORTED IN ROCKFORD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL WILL AGAIN RE-
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LOW CENTER AND A DIMINISHING WIND
FIELD APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN...ANY POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE AREA
WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FOCI FOR WATERSPOUTS...INCLUDING NEAR THE
SHORES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...DROPPING
ONLY ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE ROCKFORD AREA AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
341 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL STRONG MID LEVEL
FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THIS FORCING IN THE PRESENCE
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND RAP ANALYSIS...HAS
ALLOWED SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY RESIDE. EXPECT THESE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO BE THE MORE NORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. ITS IN THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
LOWER VIS COULD OCCUR...AND ALSO WHERE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER/SMALL HAIL STILL MAY OCCUR.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WITH MID LEVEL FEATURES/FORCING SHIFTING
EASTWARD TONIGHT...MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
LOWERING TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...AS EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS
OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WITH A SIMILAR SETUP EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS/SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEN LAPSE
RATES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE THE STEEPEST. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH AS THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SO
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY MOVING SLOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...WASNT
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING THE POPS AS STRAY SHOWERS MAY
LINGERING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE.
AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...HEIGHT
RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER
WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. EXPECT WINDS TO FLOP BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY WITH WAA USHERING IN SOME WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
WITH FORECAST HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY. THIS WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPS...AS THEY RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALTHOUGH WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...THIS WILL BRING A SETUP FOR STEERING FLOW TO
BRING ABOUT SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY AND ACTIVE WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIGS TRENDING TO IFR. PSBL IFR THRU MID-MORNING.
* PATCHY LGT DZ THRU OVERNIGHT AND MID-MORNING.
* S WINDS BECOMING SW/W WINDS BY MIDDAY AROUND 10-12KT. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 16 KT.
* PSBL LGT SHRA MIDDAY THRU EARLY AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
STRONG AUTUMN WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR
REDUCED CIGS AND AREAS OF RA. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR CIGS HAVE
STEADILY DEVELOPED AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IT
APPEARS ONCE THE STEADIER RA PUSHES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS THAT PATCHY DZ WILL OCCUR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY. IT APPEARS BY MID-MORNING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THIS POINT CIGS MAY TRY TO PUSH UP
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CIGS DOWN AT LOW END MVFR CONDS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT ANY MAINTAINED IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY OR THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWEST BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. DRY AIR WILL THEN
BEGIN TO FILTER IN...WHICH COULD AID IN PUSHING CIGS BACK TOWARDS
VFR.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BEING REDUCED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING AT LOW END MVFR PSBL IFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA TRENDING TOWARDS PATCHY DZ THRU
DAYBREAK.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
221 AM CDT
POTENT AUTUMN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MONDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY...PUSHING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO CARRY MUCH OF A GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW AT THE
ONSET...HOWEVER AS THE LOW PRESSURE STEADILY PUSHES EAST OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER GALE
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KT MAY OCCUR DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SAT. OTHERWISE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THIS DIRECTION FAVORS AN
OPTIMAL FETCH SETUP FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS IN SEEING
BUILDING WAVES AND REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AS
WELL.
WITH AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...STRETCHING AN INFLUENCE NORTH TO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW
SUN...THIS SHOULD BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES
WILL RELAX AND GO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SUN. AS THE FOCUS
TURNS TOWARDS YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POISED TO PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS BACK TO THE REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MON
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THIS
CURRENTLY IS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
THIS EARLY WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
925 PM CDT
A MASSIVE STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. TO EXPRESS HOW
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP THIS LOW IS...THIS SYSTEM HAS DIPPED THE
TROPOPAUSE DOWN TO NEAR 400 MB ON AREA RAOBS...WITH 250 MB
TEMPERATURES 13C DEGREES WARMER IN THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
/DUE TO STRATOSPHERIC FOLDING/. MULTIPLE MID AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO TWIRL AROUND EACH OTHER. SEVERAL SUCH
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ARE IN A WRAPAROUND TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND
GRADUAL ASCENT OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON RAP ISENTROPIC FIELDS INTO OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AS THE LOW CENTER EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA. GENERAL DRIZZLE WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
THE PREVAILING RAIN MODE. EARLIER PRIOR TO SUNSET THERE WERE A
FEW 40 DBZ ECHOES NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL...AND A FEW PUBLIC
REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WERE REPORTED IN ROCKFORD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL WILL AGAIN RE-
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LOW CENTER AND A DIMINISHING WIND
FIELD APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN...ANY POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE AREA
WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FOCI FOR WATERSPOUTS...INCLUDING NEAR THE
SHORES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...DROPPING
ONLY ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE ROCKFORD AREA AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
341 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL STRONG MID LEVEL
FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THIS FORCING IN THE PRESENCE
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND RAP ANALYSIS...HAS
ALLOWED SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY RESIDE. EXPECT THESE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO BE THE MORE NORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. ITS IN THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
LOWER VIS COULD OCCUR...AND ALSO WHERE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER/SMALL HAIL STILL MAY OCCUR.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WITH MID LEVEL FEATURES/FORCING SHIFTING
EASTWARD TONIGHT...MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
LOWERING TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...AS EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS
OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WITH A SIMILAR SETUP EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS/SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEN LAPSE
RATES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE THE STEEPEST. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH AS THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SO
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY MOVING SLOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...WASNT
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING THE POPS AS STRAY SHOWERS MAY
LINGERING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE.
AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...HEIGHT
RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER
WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. EXPECT WINDS TO FLOP BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY WITH WAA USHERING IN SOME WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
WITH FORECAST HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY. THIS WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPS...AS THEY RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALTHOUGH WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...THIS WILL BRING A SETUP FOR STEERING FLOW TO
BRING ABOUT SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY AND ACTIVE WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIGS TRENDING TO IFR. PSBL IFR THRU MID-MORNING.
* PATCHY LGT DZ THRU OVERNIGHT AND MID-MORNING.
* S WINDS BECOMING SW/W WINDS BY MIDDAY AROUND 10-12KT. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 16 KT.
* PSBL LGT SHRA MIDDAY THRU EARLY AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
STRONG AUTUMN WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR
REDUCED CIGS AND AREAS OF RA. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR CIGS HAVE
STEADILY DEVELOPED AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IT
APPEARS ONCE THE STEADIER RA PUSHES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS THAT PATCHY DZ WILL OCCUR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY. IT APPEARS BY MID-MORNING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THIS POINT CIGS MAY TRY TO PUSH UP
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CIGS DOWN AT LOW END MVFR CONDS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT ANY MAINTAINED IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL
MIDDAY OR THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWEST BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. DRY AIR WILL THEN
BEGIN TO FILTER IN...WHICH COULD AID IN PUSHING CIGS BACK TOWARDS
VFR.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BEING REDUCED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING AT LOW END MVFR PSBL IFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA TRENDING TOWARDS PATCHY DZ THRU
DAYBREAK.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
253 PM CDT
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ONE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH A
SECONDARY CIRCULATION OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE TWO LOWS WILL
MERGE AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG LEADING TO 30 KT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WITH SOME 35 KT GALES OCCURRING AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE
LOW BROADENS AND WEAKENS RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE COMPLEX AS THE LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WHILE WINDS
TURN SOUTHEAST...THEN EAST...THEN NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE FRIDAY. ONCE THE LOW
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY EVENING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE OVER
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS LIKELY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RECOVERS BUT THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESENT AND COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
LAKE...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AS
LOW PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEYOND THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE AND
BRING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS FOR LATE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN WITH NUMEROUS
TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS THE INITIAL
SUBSIDENCE HAS FILLED BACK IN WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS. A VORT MAX
ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA IS HELPING TO GENERATE NEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF
KBIV. NUMEROUS TROFS RAN FROM THE LOW FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BACK UP THROUGH WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE VORT MAX HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWFA
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH/EAST THAN WHAT THE RAP WAS SUGGESTING
EARLIER TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED POSITION OF
THE SHRA ACTIVITY...THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN KDBQ/KALO TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SAID ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM NORTHEAST
OF KIOW DOWN TOWARDS KGBG BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING.
AROUND THIS BAND OF CONCENTRATED SHRA ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA WILL BE SEEN THAT DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
BASED ON THE LUMPY NATURE OF THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...SUBSIDENCE
AND THE SETTING SUN WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING POCKET THAT DEVELOPS
ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT SHOULD BEGIN ROTATING SOUTH
AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA BY LATE EVENING WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT AS MUCH
AS LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN SHELTERED AREAS AND SOME RIVER VALLEYS
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
IF FOG DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT IT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH NICER DAY WITH SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY
FILTERED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. 08
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY
IN THE WEEK. HEIGHT RISES... GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD COMBINE TO BRING ABOUT A NICE BOOST IN
TEMPS ON SUNDAY... WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON GUSTY S/SE WINDS.
SUN NGT THROUGH MON WILL BRING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED... AS 30+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE AIMED OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUN
EVE INTO MON AM AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLD/SCTD ELEVATED STORMS SEEM REASONABLE
WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS ADVECTING STEEP PLUME OF MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM IN 700-500 MB LAYER BY 12Z MON. IN
ADDITION... CANT RULE OUT SEEING SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH SUCH
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SFC DEWPTS CLIMBING THROUGH
THE 50S INTO 60S. ALSO... EXPECTING NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WITH
TEMPS STEADY TO RISING OVRNGT SUN NGT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
MON NGT INTO TUE WITH SUGGESTIONS OF ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH BROAD... DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WHILE STAYING UNSETTLED... ALTHOUGH SUGGESTION OF
LOWER RISK OF PCPN TUE INTO WED WITH MAIN FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED TO
OUR NORTH/WEST. ANTICIPATE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO FLATTEN OR TRANSITION
TO SEMI-ZONAL LATE WEEK AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY EJECTS FROM
WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL SEND THE BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH AS COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS WED NGT THROUGH THU BASED ON
THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS OR DPROG/DT OF UKMET... ECMWF AND GFS.
MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF 1+
INCHES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN PCPN WINDOWS OF SUN NGT-MON NGT AND WED NGT-
THU NGT. MCCLURE
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND PERIODS OF VFR THROUGH
00Z/20. DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS STARTING TO DVLP SHRA ACROSS IOWA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST. KCID/KBRL HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAIN WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. KDBQ/KMLI MAY SEE A SHRA. AFT 00Z/20 CIGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT ABV 3 KFT AGL AS CLOUDS BREAK UP. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW MVFR FG TO DVLP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR
LIFR FG PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. 08
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE HOLES ARE FILLING IN DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT. SPRINKLES/SHRA ARE MOVING SOUTH
FROM MINNESOTA. THE RECENT RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHRA TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM THE HOLES IN THE CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN FCST SO MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND PERIODS OF VFR THROUGH
00Z/20. DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS STARTING TO DVLP SHRA ACROSS IOWA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST. KCID/KBRL HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAIN WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. KDBQ/KMLI MAY SEE A SHRA. AFT 00Z/20 CIGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT ABV 3 KFT AGL AS CLOUDS BREAK UP. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW MVFR FG TO DVLP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR
LIFR FG PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/
UPDATE...
A MAJOR REVISION HAS BEEN DONE TO THE FCST.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE HOLE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
WITH NUMEROUS SMALL HOLES AS WELL. THE RAP ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING LARGE AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA BUT
THE ONLY HOLES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ARE OVER THE CWFA.
LIKEWISE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY
EXCEPT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
SO...ASSUMING THE MOST RECENT TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. THE RAP DOES SLOWLY FILL IN THE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS FILLING MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT.
ON THE 300K THETA SFC BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING NATURE...ADDITIONAL UPDATES DURING THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..08..
AVIATION...
DOWNWARD MOTION HAS ALLOWED A LARGE HOLE TO DVLP ACRS EASTERN IOWA
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KCID. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THIS HOLE
MOVING EAST BUT EVENTUALLY FILLING THROUGH 21Z/19. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD DVLP AFT 18Z/19 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUS CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR OR VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. ..08..
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST AND WAS CENTERED
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KDBQ.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE DVN CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST MN
AND INTO WESTERN IA. CLOUD COVER WAS EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES FOUND WAY BACK IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WERE HOWLING
IN THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB...KS AND MO WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
HAASE
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN TODAY THEN ENDING TONIGHT. CONTINUED WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD BUT FORCING IS NOT
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS. HOWEVER AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 0.15 INCH OR LESS. WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW EXISTS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW GETS NUDGED FARTHER EAST AND BY 12Z
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
OCCURRING WHILE A STRONG 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET RAMS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS AN INTENSE LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DECREASING CLOUDS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S BY MORNING.
HAASE
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARMING TREND WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS
NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR ISSUES
WITH UPSTREAM PACIFIC ENERGY. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES
THIS FAR OUT. VERIFICATION SUPPORTS NORMAL BLEND OF MODELS WEIGHTED
TOWARD GFS. KEY ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL DEVELOPING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 60F MOST AREAS SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS COOLER MINS WITH
LATER SHIFTS POSSIBLY NEEDING TO TRIM A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF PROGGED
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOW POPS WITH SUGGESTION MAY HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
DEWPOINTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG AND EVEN LIGHT DRIZZLE
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS. MILD LOWS OF 55 TO 60 DEGREES AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL NORTH OF AREA
WITH MODERATE SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING PRECLUDES ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ATTM WITH MUCAPE AOB 1200 J/KG. ABOVE
NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. LOWS TO ALSO TO CONTINUE
QUITE MILD...MAINLY THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. POOR CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF WHEN NEXT FRONT TO PASS WITH D-PROG-DT TRENDS SUPPORTING
NEXT FRIDAY.
NICHOLS
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1037 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.UPDATE...
A MAJOR REVISION HAS BEEN DONE TO THE FCST.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE HOLE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
WITH NUMEROUS SMALL HOLES AS WELL. THE RAP ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING LARGE AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA BUT
THE ONLY HOLES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ARE OVER THE CWFA.
LIKEWISE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY
EXCEPT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
SO...ASSUMING THE MOST RECENT TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. THE RAP DOES SLOWLY FILL IN THE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS FILLING MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT.
ON THE 300K THETA SFC BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING NATURE...ADDITIONAL UPDATES DURING THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
DOWNWARD MOTION HAS ALLOWED A LARGE HOLE TO DVLP ACRS EASTERN IOWA
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KCID. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THIS HOLE
MOVING EAST BUT EVENTUALLY FILLING THROUGH 21Z/19. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD DVLP AFT 18Z/19 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUS CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR OR VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. ..08..
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST AND WAS CENTERED
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KDBQ.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE DVN CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST MN
AND INTO WESTERN IA. CLOUD COVER WAS EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES FOUND WAY BACK IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WERE HOWLING
IN THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB...KS AND MO WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
HAASE
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN TODAY THEN ENDING TONIGHT. CONTINUED WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD BUT FORCING IS NOT
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS. HOWEVER AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 0.15 INCH OR LESS. WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW EXISTS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW GETS NUDGED FARTHER EAST AND BY 12Z
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
OCCURRING WHILE A STRONG 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET RAMS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS AN INTENSE LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DECREASING CLOUDS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S BY MORNING.
HAASE
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARMING TREND WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS
NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR ISSUES
WITH UPSTREAM PACIFIC ENERGY. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES
THIS FAR OUT. VERIFICATION SUPPORTS NORMAL BLEND OF MODELS WEIGHTED
TOWARD GFS. KEY ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL DEVELOPING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 60F MOST AREAS SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS COOLER MINS WITH
LATER SHIFTS POSSIBLY NEEDING TO TRIM A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF PROGGED
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOW POPS WITH SUGGESTION MAY HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
DEWPOINTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG AND EVEN LIGHT DRIZZLE
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS. MILD LOWS OF 55 TO 60 DEGREES AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL NORTH OF AREA
WITH MODERATE SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING PRECLUDES ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ATTM WITH MUCAPE AOB 1200 J/KG. ABOVE
NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. LOWS TO ALSO TO CONTINUE
QUITE MILD...MAINLY THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. POOR CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF WHEN NEXT FRONT TO PASS WITH D-PROG-DT TRENDS SUPPORTING
NEXT FRIDAY.
NICHOLS
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND SOME
FOG ARE LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE VARIABLE MVFR/IFR TO CONSISTENT
MVFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...LASTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 3
MILES FOR SHORT TIMES...WITH CIGS OF 500 TO 1000 FT AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 100 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAINFALL IN THE PERSISTENT
BAND OF RAIN OVER THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTH HALF THIS EVENING DUE TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY AND EARLY EVENING
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.1 TO 0.2 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ERVIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER NORTHEAST
OF KMSP. THE 850MB COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THEN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
SEVERAL TROFS RAN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WI/IL BACK THROUGH
IOWA AND NEBRASKA. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC LOW NEAR KMSP WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
NUMEROUS WEAK TROFS RAN FROM WI/IL BACK THROUGH IOWA AND INTO
NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER...DOWNGLIDE WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE THIS DOWNGLIDE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING
BRIEFLY ENDING THE RAIN. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL PUSH TO
THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE CWFA.
BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WEAK UPGLIDE WILL AGAIN
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWFA WHILE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH. THUS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA DROP OFF SUGGESTING SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
ON FRIDAY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIGHT RAIN IN CENTRAL IOWA WILL AGAIN ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN CWFA AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...THESE MAY STILL BE TOO WARM AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. 08
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY RELINQUISH CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSHLY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LOOK TO
SHUT DOWN FRIDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING FOR OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE HAVE REMAINED MORE ON PESSIMISTIC SIDE ON
SKY COVER AND CLEARING TRENDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY PAST FEW DAYS OF RAIN)
BENEATH INVERSION... LOWER SUN ANGLE... AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD
AROUND UPPER LOW DEPICTED WELL BY THE NAM MODEL WHICH IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH MAINTAINING CLOUDS. AS RESULT... CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEAR BLEND OR
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
PATTERN ALOFT SET TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND... WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREEING ON MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS REGIME FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH BOUTS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE CHALLENGE LIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON ENERGY EJECTING FROM WESTERN
TROUGH... ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WHICH
HAS IMPACT ON MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY... STAYED LARGELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
ON TEMPS/POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DPROG/DT OF BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW CONTINUED SLOWING AND FURTHER NORTHWEST TREND WITH FRONTAL
ZONE IN GENERAL BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF TRENDS PERSIST WOULD
EXPECT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND FURTHER WARMING ON TEMPS TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME OR MOST OF THIS PERIOD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER REGIME IS STILL DEPICTED BY BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF CURRENT EXTENDED. MAIN CHALLENGE APPEARS TO
BE JUST EXACTLY WHEN THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. 05
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 10-13Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND
PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z. ONLY WENT MVFR/IFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LIFR CIGS & VSBYS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR IS LIKELY KHUT AND KICT...WHERE BEST MIX OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE REALIZED...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE LIFR OUT FOR KRSL AND KSLN. KCNU SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WON`T BE QUITE AS STRONG.
ADK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/
UPDATE...
RUC...NAM AND EVEN THE LATEST HRRR ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TOWARD DAWN...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING OVER
PRIMARILY CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THE CULPRITS WILL BE 1)
RADIATIONAL COOLING 2) RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND 3) SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SLAMMING NORTH INTO THE RADIATED-OUT AIRMASS. IT
APPEARS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL. ONLY INSERTED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THINKING THERE IS AT LEAST PATCHY
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
ADK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 10-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND
PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z. ONLY WENT MVFR/IFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS & VSBYS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR IS LIKELY KHUT...WHERE BEST MIX OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE REALIZED. KCNU SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WON`T BE QUITE AS STRONG. WILL MONITOR
00Z MODEL DATA AND FINE TUNE THE CIGS/VSBYS FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
ADK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEAR
TERM AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
THERE IS A DEEP BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND IS SPINNING OFF OF THE BAJA
COAST. ANOTHER DEEP DISTURBANCE IS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN US. THE LATER TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKERS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TONIGHT - SUNDAY:
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY TODAY...WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM WILL BE KICKED-OUT BY THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL HELP TO INDUCE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. THIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LOW-MID CLOUDS
TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF QPF OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH THESE LEAD PIECES
OF ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. WHILE THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAKER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THINK THE MOST THAT WILL
OCCUR IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER.
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING THE MID-UPPER
80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY:
THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AS
IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL PUSH A FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
LOW. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT STILL DO NOT SEE A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
THIS IS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE DIFFERENT LOBES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS...BUT STILL THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. THE LATEST 12Z/20TH ECMWF ALLOWS THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. WHICH
DRAGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS IT. THE
12Z/20TH GFS KEEPS THIS SAME PIECE OF ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
AND THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN-CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE GUIDANCE CONVERGES BACK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY...DROPPING IT DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND PUSHING A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ONE SOLUTION AND THE FORECAST AS
A WHOLE FOR THE EXTENDED. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS
THAT A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS FOR KRSL/KSLN/KHUT MAY BE A BIT
TRICKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LEE TROUGHING IN WESTERN KANSAS
HAS CAUSED THE WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATER IN THE DAY. CONCERNS TURN
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CEILING IMPACTS FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOR KICT AND KHUT WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
SGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 84 63 80 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 54 84 58 80 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 55 81 60 77 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 56 81 66 80 / 0 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 84 68 80 / 0 10 10 20
RUSSELL 49 84 52 72 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 51 84 53 75 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 53 82 57 76 / 0 10 20 10
MCPHERSON 53 83 58 80 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 60 81 69 81 / 0 10 20 20
CHANUTE 57 80 67 78 / 0 10 20 20
IOLA 57 79 68 76 / 0 10 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 58 81 67 80 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
717 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.UPDATE...
RUC...NAM AND EVEN THE LATEST HRRR ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TOWARD DAWN...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING OVER
PRIMARILY CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THE CULPRITS WILL BE 1)
RADIATIONAL COOLING 2) RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND 3) SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SLAMMING NORTH INTO THE RADIATED-OUT AIRMASS. IT
APPEARS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL. ONLY INSERTED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THINKING THERE IS AT LEAST PATCHY
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
ADK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 10-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND
PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z. ONLY WENT MVFR/IFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS & VSBYS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR IS LIKELY KHUT...WHERE BEST MIX OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE REALIZED. KCNU SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WON`T BE QUITE AS STRONG. WILL MONITOR
00Z MODEL DATA AND FINE TUNE THE CIGS/VSBYS FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
ADK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEAR
TERM AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
THERE IS A DEEP BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND IS SPINNING OFF OF THE BAJA
COAST. ANOTHER DEEP DISTURBANCE IS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN US. THE LATER TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKERS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TONIGHT - SUNDAY:
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY TODAY...WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM WILL BE KICKED-OUT BY THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL HELP TO INDUCE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. THIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LOW-MID CLOUDS
TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF QPF OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH THESE LEAD PIECES
OF ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. WHILE THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAKER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THINK THE MOST THAT WILL
OCCUR IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER.
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING THE MID-UPPER
80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY:
THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AS
IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL PUSH A FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
LOW. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT STILL DO NOT SEE A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
THIS IS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE DIFFERENT LOBES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS...BUT STILL THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. THE LATEST 12Z/20TH ECMWF ALLOWS THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. WHICH
DRAGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS IT. THE
12Z/20TH GFS KEEPS THIS SAME PIECE OF ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
AND THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN-CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE GUIDANCE CONVERGES BACK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY...DROPPING IT DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND PUSHING A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ONE SOLUTION AND THE FORECAST AS
A WHOLE FOR THE EXTENDED. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS
THAT A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS FOR KRSL/KSLN/KHUT MAY BE A BIT
TRICKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LEE TROUGHING IN WESTERN KANSAS
HAS CAUSED THE WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATER IN THE DAY. CONCERNS TURN
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CEILING IMPACTS FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOR KICT AND KHUT WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
SGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 84 63 80 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 54 84 58 80 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 55 81 60 77 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 56 81 66 80 / 0 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 84 68 80 / 0 10 10 20
RUSSELL 49 84 52 72 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 51 84 53 75 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 53 82 57 76 / 0 10 20 10
MCPHERSON 53 83 58 80 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 60 81 69 81 / 0 10 20 20
CHANUTE 57 80 67 78 / 0 10 20 20
IOLA 57 79 68 76 / 0 10 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 58 81 67 80 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
EARLIER SENT OUT ANOTHER UPDATE. TODAYS MAXES APPROACHING FORECAST
MAXES WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING VERY WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DRY AIR
MASS PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. RUC IS
NOT ONLY CATCHING THE WARM UP WELL BUT ALSO THE WIND FIELD THE
BEST AS WELL. NAM IS ALSO CATCHING THE WARMUP AS WELL. SO PER THAT
DATA COMPARED TO THE RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RAISED THE
MAXES 3 TO 5 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...JUST ADJUSTED THE TRENDS ON THE
HOURLY GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELD
FOR THE CURRENT PERIOD. THIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED VARIABLE
WIND FIELD TONIGHT MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED MIN FORECAST. THERE WAS
A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS LAST NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE RUC AND NAM
FOR THE WINDS. SHOULD GET WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN COLD FRONT START MOVING
THROUGH. EXPECT ONCE AGAIN WHERE THE TROUGH LINE IS WILL BE WHERE
COOLEST MINS SHOULD BE BUT DO EXPECT A WIDE RANGE ONCE AGAIN BUT A
LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFERING ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH DOES
NOT LOOK TOO STRONG. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO SLOW THIS DOWN AND
LOOKS TO NOT BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF MAX
HEATING TIME. THERE IS A 5 TO NEARLY 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN MAXES.
USING A CLUSTER OF THE BEST RECENT PERFORMING GUIDANCE...2 METER
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIASES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER MAXES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A BIG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
CORNER TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE
NAM/SREF SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA AROUND 850 TO 880MB. HOWEVER IT IS VERY SHALLOW SO WILL
ONLY HAVE SILENT CHANCES IN FOR THOSE PERIODS FOR THE FAR EAST.
OTHERWISE AM NOT EXPECTING AN PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN DRY. THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW ONCE IT MOVES ON SHORE. THE
GFS/DGEX/UKMET/GEM DIVE THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH AT VARYING SPEEDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH KICK OUT OF
THE CLOSED LOW BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE...KEEPING BOTH FURTHER NORTH
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE...EITHER THE LEFT EXIT
OR RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 500MB JET OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONSENSUS HAS PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. ON A
SIDE NOTE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE...GIVING MORE WEIGHT
TO THE NOTION OF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO
BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED GENERALLY ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BY TOMORROW
MORNING...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND STALL
ACROSS KANSAS. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...WITH JUST SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
606 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LOW
WILL PUSH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
600 PM UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED QPF
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SHADOW EFFECTS. UPDATED TEMPERATURES
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PCPN HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING ITS PROGRESSION TO
THE E TODAY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE THE POPS THEREAFTER. LATEST HRRR RUN
HAS THE BULK OF THE PCPN ENTERING MAINE AFT 21Z.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. PREFER THE GFS SOLN TODAY
AS HIGHEST QPF WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE MTNS IN E-CNTRL NH AND
FOOTHILLS IN MAINE.
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND AN INCREASING
DEW POINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES STARTING THIS EVENING. LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WILL CONT
TO SLOWLY MARCH EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...A DRY SLOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS YIELDS TEMPS INT EH LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN
NH. COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL
HAVE THE MOST LOW CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OFF THE CHILLY GULF OF
MAINE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SW BY
LATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SCT SHWRS TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDS
ELSEWHERE OVER SRN/ERN AREAS DUE TO THE DOWN SLOPING WNWLY WINDS. A
DRY WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEK AS A DRY WNWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THRU THE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGL.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE WEEK COOL BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
OVER THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY USED A BLEND
OF THE ADJUSTED GMOS TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CONDS CONTS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND
CONTINUES THRU TNGT...THEN IMPROVES AS THE COLD FNT MOVES THRU ON
SATURDAY. LLWS ADDED TO TAFS FOR INTO TNGT AS STRONG S SE LOW LVL
JET UP TO 50 KT DEVELOPS AT 2000 FT. THE KHIE MTR IS NOW BACK.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONT
THE GLW FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND THE SCA FOR THE BAYS. MODELS BRING
A STRONG LOW LVL JET UP TO 50 KT AT 2000 FT ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND EXPECT GUSTS OF 35 KT TO BRIEFLY MIX
DOWN. WINDS DROP OFF SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT DECREASES QUICKLY AS
THE CD FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE SO THE
GLW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH AN SCA FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY PSBL SCA WNWLY WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
USED RFC/HPC QPF WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM QPF
APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH 3 INCH MAX WHILE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW
MAX OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH OVER SRN ZONES WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY. THE
RFC/HPC QPF STORM TOTAL IS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH MAX AMOUNTS OVER
1.5 INCHES BUT LESS THAN 2 INCHES AND FALL FROM E-CNTRL NH TO THE
WRN FOOTHILLS OF ME. THIS MUCH QPF IS WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AND PRELIMINARY RFC RIVER FCST KEEPING ALL POINT FCST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THOUGH IT DOES SHOW SOME SHARP RISES OVER
CENTRAL NH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TNGT ALONG WITH MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS
THERE WILL BE STORM SURGE ON TOP OF THE HIGH TIDE WHICH COULD PUSH
THE TIDE CLOSE TO...BUT KEEP IT BELOW FLOOD STAGE. STILL THE WAVE
ACTION COULD LEAD TO SOME MODEST SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION
PROBLEMS...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
229 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LOW
WILL PUSH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING ITS PROGRESSION TO
THE E TODAY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE THE POPS THEREAFTER. LATEST HRRR RUN
HAS THE BULK OF THE PCPN ENTERING MAINE AFT 21Z.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. PREFER THE GFS SOLN TODAY
AS HIGHEST QPF WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE MTNS IN E-CNTRL NH AND
FOOTHILLS IN MAINE.
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND AN INCREASING
DEW POINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES STARTING THIS EVENING. LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WILL CONT
TO SLOWLY MARCH EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...A DRY SLOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS YIELDS TEMPS INT EH LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN
NH. COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL
HAVE THE MOST LOW CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OFF THE CHILLY GULF OF
MAINE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SW BY
LATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SCT SHWRS TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDS
ELSWHR OVER SRN/ERN AREAS DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS. A
DRY WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEK AS A DRY WNWLY FLOW
DEVLOPS THRU THE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGL.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE WEEK COOL BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
OVER THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY USED A BLEND
OF THE ADJUSTED GMOS TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CONDS CONTS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND
CONTINUES THRU TNGT...THEN IMPROVES AS THE COLD FNT MOVES THRU ON
SATURDAY. LLWS ADDED TO TAFS FOR INTO TNGT AS STRONG S SE LOW LVL
JET UP TO 50 KT DEVELOPS AT 2000 FT. THE KHIE MTR IS NOW BACK.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONT
THE GLW FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND THE SCA FOR THE BAYS. MODELS BRING
A STRONG LOW LVL JET UP TO 50 KT AT 2000 FT ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND EXPECT GUSTS OF 35 KT TO BRIEFLY MIX
DOWN. WINDS DROP OFF SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT DECREASES QUICKLY AS
THE CD FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE SO THE
GLW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH AN SCA FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY PSBL SCA WNWLY WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
USED RFC/HPC QPF WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM QPF
APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH 3 INCH MAX WHILE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW
MAX OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH OVER SRN ZONES WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY. THE
RFC/HPC QPF STORM TOTAL IS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH MAX AMOUNTS OVER
1.5 INCHES BUT LESS THAN 2 INCHES AND FALL FROM E-CNTRL NH TO THE
WRN FOOTHILLS OF ME. THIS MUCH QPF IS WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AND PRELIMINARY RFC RIVER FCST KEEPING ALL POINT FCST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THOUGH IT DOES SHOW SOME SHARP RISES OVER
CENTRAL NH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TNGT ALONG WITH MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS
THERE WILL BE STORM SURGE ON TOP OF THE HIGH TIDE WHICH COULD PUSH
THE TIDE CLOSE TO...BUT KEEP IT BELOW FLOOD STAGE. STILL THE WAVE
ACTION COULD LEAD TO SOME MODEST SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION
PROBLEMS...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1138 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THIS LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MAIN BANDS OF PCPN
CONT TO STREAM MAINLY W OF THE BORDER OF ME/NH. THIS TIMING IS IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN.
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF THE
PCPN AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
LATEST REC FCST BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. OTRW...NO SIGNIF CHANGES
THIS PACKAGE.
PREV DISC...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. MAIN CHANGE WILL
BE TO UPDATE CHC OF RA THIS MORNING PER LATEST RADAR
LOOP...INCREASING THE CHC OVER OUR SRN MOST ZONES AND DECREASING
IT TO THE N.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...AND A WARM
FRONT TO THE SOUTH... WILL COMBINE TO BRING RA AND WIND TO THE
FCST AREA TDA...DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING OVER NH AND
SW MAINE AND OVER OUR NE ZONES AROUND MIDDAY. AREAS OF F AND -DZ
WILL PRECEDE THE RA THIS MORNING. E OR SE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH UPWARDS TO AN INCH ARE
PSBL TDA...MAINLY ACROSS SE NH TO THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINE. LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WRN NH...NRN NH AND THE MT ZONES OF WRN MAINE.
GENERALLY USED GFS40...A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE AND RFC/HPC
QPF FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SLOW MOVING CD FNT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TNGT AS RA AND WIND
CONT. THE WIND LETS UP LATER TNGT AS THE PRES GRADIENT EASES UP...
BUT THE RA CONTINUES WITH UP TO AN INCH OF QPF PSBL OVER SRN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. THE FNT MOVES SLOWLY THRU ON SATURDAY WITH PRCP
TAPERING OFF...OR ENDING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING PSBL. THE
IMPROVING WX REACHES NH FIRST THE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS SRN
AND WRN MAINE WHERE ANY CLEARING WOULD BE LESS LIKELY. TEMPS
SHOULD WARM UP BEHIND THE FNT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH HIGHS OF 70 TO 75 OVER
MUCH OF NH AND EVEN INTO ADJACENT WRN MAINE.
GENERALLY USED GFS40...BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE AND RFC/HPC
QPF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.
OVERALL...MEAN JET POSITION WILL KEEP COLD AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES. RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING THEN
FOLLOWS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. IN THE DAILIES...EXPECT CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IFR/LIFR DEVELOPS THRU THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES THRU TNGT...THEN IMPROVES AS THE CD FNT
MOVES THRU ON SATURDAY. LLWS ADDED TO TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TNGT AS STRONG S SE LOW LVL JET UP TO 50 KT DEVELOPS AT 2000
FT. THE KHIE MTR IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO COMMS PROBLEMS WITH THE
ASOS UNIT. HAVE APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO THE TAF.
LONG TERM...
SAT NIGHT - MON...LCL MVFR PSBL IN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WHICH WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONT THE GLW FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND THE SCA
FOR THE BAYS. MODELS BRING A STRONG LOW LVL JET UP TO 50 KT AT
2000 FT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND EXPECT GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 KT TO MIX DOWN. WINDS DROP OFF SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT DECREASES QUICKLY AS THE CD FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU. SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE SO THE GLW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH AN
SCA FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SUN - MON...A SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND SEAS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
USED RFC/HPC QPF WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM QPF
APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH 3 INCH MAX WHILE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW
MAX OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH OVER SRN ZONES WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY. THE
RFC/HPC QPF STORM TOTAL IS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH MAX AMOUNTS OVER
1.5 INCHES BUT LESS THAN 2 INCHES AND FALL FROM SRN MAINE AND SE
NH TO THE FOOTHILLS. THIS MUCH QPF IS WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AND PRELIMINARY RFC RIVER FCST KEEPING ALL POINT FCST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THOUGH IT DOES SHOW SHARP RISES AND WOODSTOCK IN
NH GETS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TDA AND TNGT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS
THERE WILL BE STORM SURGE ON TOP OF THE HIGH TIDE WHICH COULD PUSH
THE TIDE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. STILL THE WAVE ACTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION PROBLEMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE TDA AND MAINLY FROM PWM TO PSM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOWERING SLOWLY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TIDE IS LOWER THAN
TODAY. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY. THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND IS 11.2 FT AT 227 PM
TDA AND 10.8 FT AT 326 PM SATURDAY. THE TIDAL FLOOD STAGE AT
PORTLAND IS 12.0 FT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR A
DRY SUNDAY AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH RAIN ALREADY MOVING INTO ZANESVILLE.
BLENDED THIS INTO FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH NO CHANGES MADE
AFTERWARDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ITS BROAD AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK 500MB VORT ENERGY IS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM FURTHER UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS AIDING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
IN INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW IS CENTERED IN A SIMILAR
LOCATION TO THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS IN A
DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS EVENING...THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ROTATING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WEAK VORT ENERGY INITIALLY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH DRY AIR BELOW 800MB (30F
TD DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE) WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY VIRGA
INITIALLY.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WHEN THE 1000-800MB LAYER
MOISTENS AND STRONGER FORCING PIVOTS INTO OHIO LATER THIS
EVENING. 4KM NSSL WRF AND HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORT A
SOLUTION WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...CHC POPS ARE FORECAST
EARLY...INCREASING TO LIKELY BY 00Z IN EASTERN OHIO. FURTHER EAST
IN WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD...DRY SLOT WILL LIMIT
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN...CENTERED OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 12Z ON SATURDAY. THE BEST VORT ENERGY WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
ROTATE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO EXTEND EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA AND CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS DECREASE WITH CAA ALLOWING FOR A COOL AND
CLOUDY NIGHT. LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND FINALLY PULL NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. 500MB VORT ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE
LOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z WILL MAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO AN END.
THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS OF 0-1C) WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z ON SATURDAY. DESPITE 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 5400M NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...THE TIMING OF THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH WARMER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND THERMAL PROFILES OF MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN (WET SNOWFLAKES MELTING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THE RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR). HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT...MORE CLEARING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S IN EASTERN OHIO TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA.
THERE IS REASONABLE OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATING EACH DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TO START THE WEEK. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WARMING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL-EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD. WHAT REMAINS A BIT MORE INCONSISTENT ARE THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP AND ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND THE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL
COLD FRONT SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FASTER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND KEEPS MORE OF THE MOISTURE NORTH. AT THIS
POINT...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC VALUES FOR POPS. BOTH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS/MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVE ALTHOUGH LIGHT
RAIN WL GRADUALLY ENCROACH AND CLOUD DECKS LOWER. BASED OFF OF
THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...MVFR CONDITIONS/ISOLD
IFR SHOULD GRADUALLY PREVAIL AFTR NIGHTFALL...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
WIND SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
WITH THE CROSSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON SATURDAY...MVFR
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE STRATOCU AND SHRA POTENTIAL WITH
THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WL DEPART AND HIGH PRES WL BUILD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS/FOG COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE DAMP BOUNDARY LAYER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AFTR DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
333 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR A
DRY SUNDAY AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ITS BROAD AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK 500MB VORT ENERGY IS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM FURTHER UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS AIDING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
IN INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW IS CENTERED IN A SIMILAR
LOCATION TO THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS IN A
DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS EVENING...THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ROTATING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WEAK VORT ENERGY INITIALLY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH DRY AIR BELOW 800MB (30F
TD DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE) WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY VIRGA
INITIALLY.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WHEN THE 1000-800MB LAYER
MOISTENS AND STRONGER FORCING PIVOTS INTO OHIO LATER THIS
EVENING. 4KM NSSL WRF AND HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORT A
SOLUTION WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...CHC POPS ARE FORECAST
EARLY...INCREASING TO LIKELY BY 00Z IN EASTERN OHIO. FURTHER EAST
IN WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD...DRY SLOT WILL LIMIT
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN...CENTERED OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 12Z ON SATURDAY. THE BEST VORT ENERGY WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
ROTATE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO EXTEND EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA AND CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS DECREASE WITH CAA ALLOWING FOR A COOL AND
CLOUDY NIGHT. LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND FINALLY PULL NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. 500MB VORT ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE
LOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z WILL MAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO AN END.
THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS OF 0-1C) WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z ON SATURDAY. DESPITE 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 5400M NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...THE TIMING OF THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH WARMER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND THERMAL PROFILES OF MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN (WET SNOWFLAKES MELTING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THE RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR). HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT...MORE CLEARING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S IN EASTERN OHIO TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA.
THERE IS REASONABLE OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATING EACH DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TO START THE WEEK. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WARMING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL-EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD. WHAT REMAINS A BIT MORE INCONSISTENT ARE THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP AND ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND THE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL
COLD FRONT SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FASTER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND KEEPS MORE OF THE MOISTURE NORTH. AT THIS
POINT...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC VALUES FOR POPS. BOTH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS/MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF
THE REGION CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WHICH HAVE ALREADY REACHED WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW.
AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL APPROACH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED
OFF OF THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE PREVALENT. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND SREF PROBABILITIES DO
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE LOW AND NEAR THE RIDGES OF WV.
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR VARIABLE CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS BACK TO MAINLY VFR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THAT MAY
NOT HAPPEN EVERYWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL. GUSTS TO 20KTS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD...RESTRICTIONS IN REMAINING STRATUS/FOG COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO AND STAY VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDWEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...34
AVIATION...34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER HAS SCATTERED OUT FOR THE MOST PART WHICH HAS LED TO
SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL HRRR MODEL
DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.
DRIER AIRMASS WORKS IN OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 OVER THE
METRO AREAS.
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE METRO AREAS TO THE 40S AND
50S OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AT ANY TIME ON SATURDAY IN UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
UPSLOPE PRECIP TO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. THE SATURATED LAYER IS
QUITE SHALLOW...ABOUT 6 KFT MSL OVER THE PIERCE BUFR SOUNDING
LOCATION IN TUCKER COUNTY WV PER THE 12Z GFS. THEREFORE...THE PRECIP
WILL BE MORE DRIZZLE...ENDING AS VERY LIGHT SNOW /OR AS WE CALL IT
IN THE OFFICE...SNIZZLE/ ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FT.
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES /WITH ONLY A FEW
WAVE CLOUDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO THE BLUE RIDGE/. MIN TEMPS MID TO
UPR 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 40S IN THE PIEDMONT...MID TO
UPR 40S COASTAL PLAINS AND URBAN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...A DOMINATING RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
OF LOW MOVING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A 1022MB SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE E-CNTRL CONUS...WITH WLY FLOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING QUITE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE LWX CWA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND ON.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS IN SPOTS TRANSITIONING TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ANY DIRECT IMPACT
TO THE TERMINALS IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
REACHING THE 10 TO 15 KTS THRESHOLD BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR AND LIGHT WLY FLOW. MORNING FOG CHANCES BEST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE MD PART OF THE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AS NWLY FLOW
INCREASES...GUSTING AROUND 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LIGHTER
WLY FLOW THEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD. TRANQUIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STALLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CHANNELING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. NOT EXPECTING TIDE LEVELS OF LAST NIGHT. WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
SHOULD ALLEVIATE TIDAL CONCERNS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
534-537-541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1250 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND BRING SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A DRY SUNDAY AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG
WORDING AND TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TO PRIMARILY EASTERN OHIO.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ITS BROAD AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK 500MB VORT ENERGY IS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM FURTHER UPSTREAM IN INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW IS
CENTERED IN A SIMILAR LOCATION TO THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY IS IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO
EASTERN OHIO.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ROTATING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WEAK VORT ENERGY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN
OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE
BETTER CHANCE WILL BE WITH STRONGER FORCING PIVOTING INTO OHIO
LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...4KM NSSL WRF AND HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY SUPPORT A SOLUTION WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, CHC POPS
ARE FORECAST EARLY, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY 00Z IN EASTERN OHIO.
FURTHER EAST IN WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD...DRY
SLOT WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVERAGE TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS AND
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE CLOSE TO LAMP GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES AND IN EASTERN
OHIO...WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASING...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE DRY SLOT IN WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV.
TONIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN...CENTERED OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 12Z ON SATURDAY. THUS...BEST VORT ENERGY WITH
THE LOW WITH MOISTURE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER WILL ROTATE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
500MB HEIGHTS DECREASE WITH CAA ALLOWING FOR A COOL AND CLOUDY
NIGHT. LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO ROLL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED OVER NEW ENGLAND
LEAVING A DRY...BUT COOL SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS ECWMF/GFSE AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE IN
A NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY.
UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS ALTHOUGH BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THEY VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. FORECAST LEANS CLOSEST TO
THE ECMWF...WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO AND SCHC
POPS SOUTHWARD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SCHC OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN A ZONAL FLOW.
IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WE
REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCROACH AS
THE DAY GOES ON BUT SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD BE LOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. GUSTS TO
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY THIS MORNING...CENTERED OVER WI/NORTHERN
IL. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY SFC LOW HAS NOW FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
POSITION OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS ARCING FROM
THE LOW TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE COLD FRONT IS PLOWING
TOWARD ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH SOME CONVECTION. RADAR LOOP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOWS CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHOWERS OVER
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LK MICHIGAN.
OVER UPR MICHIGAN...ARE JUST SEEING A SMATTERING OF LGT SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL CWA THOUGH THE SHOWERS OVER LK MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO IMPACT
SCNTRL CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SFC LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO VCNTY LK HURON THIS EVENING.
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE SHORTWAVES TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN ON FRONT EDGE OF UPPER LOW ARE LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING.
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA LIFTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. RUC/GEM-REGIONAL HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON
LOCATION OF CURRENT SHOWERS AND BOTH SHOW MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
STAYING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...H85 WINDS BACK FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE
EASTERLY...ALLOWING INCREASE IN H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. COMBINATION OF THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND WEAK LIFT ON PERIFERY OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES LIFTING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EAST HALF OF CWA. SCATTERED WORDING WORKS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE CHANCES STAY A BIT LOWER AS
THEY ARE FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE FORCING. JUST A SLIGHT RISE IN
925MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTH OF
EAST BY LATE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH UPR 40S NORTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WHATEVER WEAK LIFT IS LEFT EVADES IN THE
EVENING...LEAVING 925-850MB MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING. CUT OUT
POPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. WEAKLY CYCLONIC NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. MIN TEMPS JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TONIGHT...UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN IN AN EMBEDDED
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER SW CANADA AND A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE
NAM BUILDS THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE IN THE AREA...LOOKS TO STAY DRY THIS
PERIOD AS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND TAKES ITS
RAIN WITH IT AND WE WAIT FOR SYSTEMS TO EJECT OUT OF THE BROAD 500
MB TROUGH THAT WILL SET UP TO THE WEST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z MON. UPPER
AIR FLOW STAYS OUT SW-NE THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE
RIDGE OR THE TROUGH. ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH IT. LOOKS
TO BE WARM AND WET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. GETS KIND OF
TRICKY LATER ON FOR WINDS IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE 180 DEGREES OPPOSITE FOR WIND DIRECTIONS...BUT
ARE STRONG ON THE WINDS. KEPT PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
CMX LOOKS TO STAY VFR OR NEAR MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE KEWEENAW.
SAW SHOULD SEE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PUSHES THROUGH...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TRICKIEST CONDITIONS AT IWD TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT
BRINGS THE INVERSION DOWN...TRAPPING MOISTURE IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS.
ALSO...LIGHT UPSLOPE N WINDS WILL HELP LOWER CIGS/VIS TONIGHT. MANY
OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS (NAM/WRF/HRRR) INDICATE VERY LOW VIS/CIG
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI...AND THE SREF SHOWS 100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF VIS LESS THAN 1 MILE AND CIG LESS THAN 500 FEET. EVEN
SO...DID NOT WANT TO JUMP COMPLETELY ON BOARD WITH THE LOWER
GUIDANCE JUST YET SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NOT INCLUDE CONDITIONS
NEARLY THAT LOW. WENT WITH LOW END IFR BUT DID TAKE CONDITIONS BELOW
ALTERNATE LANDING MINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
SE WINDS TO 25 KTS TO START THE DAY THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COULD SEE NW WINDS REACH 25 KTS
SATURDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD SLOWLY EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...LEADING TO
TEMPORARY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
757 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY THIS MORNING...CENTERED OVER WI/NORTHERN
IL. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY SFC LOW HAS NOW FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
POSITION OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS ARCING FROM
THE LOW TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE COLD FRONT IS PLOWING
TOWARD ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH SOME CONVECTION. RADAR LOOP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOWS CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHOWERS OVER
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LK MICHIGAN.
OVER UPR MICHIGAN...ARE JUST SEEING A SMATTERING OF LGT SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL CWA THOUGH THE SHOWERS OVER LK MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO IMPACT
SCNTRL CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SFC LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO VCNTY LK HURON THIS EVENING.
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE SHORTWAVES TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN ON FRONT EDGE OF UPPER LOW ARE LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING.
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA LIFTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. RUC/GEM-REGIONAL HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON
LOCATION OF CURRENT SHOWERS AND BOTH SHOW MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
STAYING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...H85 WINDS BACK FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE
EASTERLY...ALLOWING INCREASE IN H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. COMBINATION OF THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND WEAK LIFT ON PERIFERY OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES LIFTING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EAST HALF OF CWA. SCATTERED WORDING WORKS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE CHANCES STAY A BIT LOWER AS
THEY ARE FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE FORCING. JUST A SLIGHT RISE IN
925MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTH OF
EAST BY LATE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH UPR 40S NORTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WHATEVER WEAK LIFT IS LEFT EVADES IN THE
EVENING...LEAVING 925-850MB MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING. CUT OUT
POPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. WEAKLY CYCLONIC NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. MIN TEMPS JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TONIGHT...UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN IN AN EMBEDDED
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER SW CANADA AND A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE
NAM BUILDS THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE IN THE AREA...LOOKS TO STAY DRY THIS
PERIOD AS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND TAKES ITS
RAIN WITH IT AND WE WAIT FOR SYSTEMS TO EJECT OUT OF THE BROAD 500
MB TROUGH THAT WILL SET UP TO THE WEST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z MON. UPPER
AIR FLOW STAYS OUT SW-NE THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE
RIDGE OR THE TROUGH. ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH IT. LOOKS
TO BE WARM AND WET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. GETS KIND OF
TRICKY LATER ON FOR WINDS IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE 180 DEGREES OPPOSITE FOR WIND DIRECTIONS...BUT
ARE STRONG ON THE WINDS. KEPT PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
CHALLENGING FCST AS SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO PRES IS STILL DRIFTING E
THRU THE LOWER GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND THIS
MAIN LO WL BRING PERIODS OF -SHRA...LLVL DRY ADVECTION WILL ONLY
ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. DAYTIME HEATING COULD ALLOW
CIGS TO RISE UP SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WL REDEVELOP IN
THE EVNG WITH DIURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY AT IWD/SAW WITH MORE OF
AN UPSLOPE NE WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
SE WINDS TO 25 KTS TO START THE DAY THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COULD SEE NW WINDS REACH 25 KTS
SATURDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD SLOWLY EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...LEADING TO
TEMPORARY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY THIS MORNING...CENTERED OVER WI/NORTHERN
IL. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY SFC LOW HAS NOW FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
POSITION OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS ARCING FROM
THE LOW TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE COLD FRONT IS PLOWING
TOWARD ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH SOME CONVECTION. RADAR LOOP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOWS CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHOWERS OVER
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LK MICHIGAN.
OVER UPR MICHIGAN...ARE JUST SEEING A SMATTERING OF LGT SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL CWA THOUGH THE SHOWERS OVER LK MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO IMPACT
SCNTRL CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SFC LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO VCNTY LK HURON THIS EVENING.
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE SHORTWAVES TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN ON FRONT EDGE OF UPPER LOW ARE LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING.
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA LIFTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. RUC/GEM-REGIONAL HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON
LOCATION OF CURRENT SHOWERS AND BOTH SHOW MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
STAYING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...H85 WINDS BACK FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE
EASTERLY...ALLOWING INCREASE IN H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. COMBINATION OF THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND WEAK LIFT ON PERIFERY OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES LIFTING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EAST HALF OF CWA. SCATTERED WORDING WORKS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE CHANCES STAY A BIT LOWER AS
THEY ARE FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE FORCING. JUST A SLIGHT RISE IN
925MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTH OF
EAST BY LATE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH UPR 40S NORTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WHATEVER WEAK LIFT IS LEFT EVADES IN THE
EVENING...LEAVING 925-850MB MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING. CUT OUT
POPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. WEAKLY CYCLONIC NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. MIN TEMPS JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TONIGHT...UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN IN AN EMBEDDED
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER SW CANADA AND A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE
NAM BUILDS THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE IN THE AREA...LOOKS TO STAY DRY THIS
PERIOD AS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND TAKES ITS
RAIN WITH IT AND WE WAIT FOR SYSTEMS TO EJECT OUT OF THE BROAD 500
MB TROUGH THAT WILL SET UP TO THE WEST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z MON. UPPER
AIR FLOW STAYS OUT SW-NE THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE
RIDGE OR THE TROUGH. ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH IT. LOOKS
TO BE WARM AND WET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. GETS KIND OF
TRICKY LATER ON FOR WINDS IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE 180 DEGREES OPPOSITE FOR WIND DIRECTIONS...BUT
ARE STRONG ON THE WINDS. KEPT PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
VERY CHALLENGING FCST WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO PRES DRIFTING E
THRU THE LOWER GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND THIS
MAIN LO WL BRING PERIODS OF -SHRA...LLVL DRY ADVECTION WL PREVENT
CIGS/VSBYS FM FALLING AS LO AS MIGHT OTRW BE THE CASE. WITH DIURNAL
COOLING EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE.
ALTHOUGH SOME DAYTIME HEATING ON FRI WL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR AT LEAST A TIME...SUSPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WL REDEVELOP IN
THE EVNG WITH DIURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY AT IWD/SAW WITH MORE OF
AN UPSLOPE NE WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
SE WINDS TO 25 KTS TO START THE DAY THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COULD SEE NW WINDS REACH 25 KTS
SATURDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD SLOWLY EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...LEADING TO
TEMPORARY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
657 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A SOLID BAND OF STRATUS ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO ERODE TODAY. THIS IS THE SAME
BAND LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CLOSED LOW A COUPLE DAYS AGO. WEST OF
IT...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING VERY NICELY ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH WIDESPREAD 60S...70S...AND 80S BEING REPORTED. THIS WARM AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT IN HERE TOMORROW BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE
POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING HAS
DISSIPATED...BUT AM ANTICIPATING FOG REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ACROSS WRN WI AND ERN MN. HERE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND RIDGING WON/T BE QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE.
IF THE STRATUS DECK DISSIPATES /WHICH APPEARS MORE AND MORE
UNLIKELY TODAY/..THEN FOG MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST AS WELL BUT
PROBABLY WON/T BE AS WIDESPREAD. BECAUSE TONIGHT IS LESS OPTIMAL
FOR FOG FORMATION THAN LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
IF FOG AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPS/EXPANDS TONIGHT...TOMORROW MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS WARM AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE THICKNESS
RIDGE WILL PUSH IN BY 18Z SUNDAY AS A FRONT BEGINS TO HEAD INTO WRN
MN. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO HINCKLEY COULD VERY
WELL HIT 70.
THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY GET PICKED
UP BY A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHEAST OVER SRN MN/WI/IA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RESULT FOR
THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT THIS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
NORTHWEST.
MONDAY IS A BIT TRICKY IN TERMS OF WHETHER TEMPS CAN RECOVER AS
MUCH AS MODELS INDICATE WITH THE STRATUS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AROUND...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN INSISTING ON MID/UPPER 60S ANYWAY.
WILL STAY THE COURSE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
LOW-UPPER 60S FROM N-S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO SRN MN MONDAY EVENING
AND PUSH TOWARD THE MSP METRO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN. BOTH MET AND MAV MOS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LATE...SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT
TO ADD MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AREA WIDE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW THE WARM SECTOR PUSHING NORTH OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOG AND STRATUS COULD HOLD BACK
THE WARM FRONT A BIT BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH TEMPERATURES...+20C AT 925 MB OVER SWRN MN. GFS
AND EURO ARE MORE +16 TO +18C SO MAINTAINED LOW TO MID 70S. ALSO
LOWERED POPS A BIT WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH AND A LACK OF
FORCING...EXCEPT NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL WI TO CNTRL MN.
CANADIAN AND GFS ARE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND THE EURO IS MOST PROGRESSIVE DUE TO A MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. PLAYED IT MORE TOWARD THE EURO...BUT
THINK IT MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.
THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONT BUT THE
POSITIVE TILT SOLUTION WOULD NOT FAVOR MUCH...IF ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE EURO HOLDS THE FRONT BACK A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND RIDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. GFS IS QUICKER BY THIS TIME DUE TO
ITS MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM FROM MIDWEEK AND STRONGER CAA. BIG
PICTUREWISE...BOTH ARE CLOSER TO A COMPROMISE THAN YESTERDAY BUT
THE SLOWER EURO COULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE WEEK SO
KEPT POPS MENTIONED.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP OVER MN AHEAD COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER
ERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN SUN MORNING AND
BE APPROACHING THE EAU AREA BY 00Z. BAND OF MVFR STRATUS THAT HAS
HUNG ON ALL DAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. 925 MB RH OFF THE RAP
HANDLES THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WELL...AND TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AT
STC/MSP/RNH IS CLOSELY TIED TO THIS FIELD. WITH CLOUD LAYER SRLY
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...THIS BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NNE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH BKN MID CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES MORE WSW. FOR FG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
LAST NIGHT. STILL...EAU IS STARTING OUT CALM UNDER SKC SKIES AND
IF BOUNDARY LAYER CAN REMAIN DECOUPLED...FG WILL BE AN ISSUE THERE
AGAIN. EVERYWHERE ELSE...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT WORST. FOR WINDS...WENT BETWEEN
THE STRONG NAM AND WEAK GFS SPEEDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALONG
THE FRONT AXIS...WINDS GO LGT AND VRB FOR A FEW HRS...BEFORE
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.
KMSP...WILL SPEND THE FIRST FEW HRS AT LEAST UNDER MORE STRATUS.
DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO DESCEND TOWARD THE 017 MARK...BUT
CURRENTLY EXPECT IT WILL MOVE OUT BEFORE GOING BLO THAT. TAF MAY
BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC ON HOW LONG THESE CIGS HANG ON...GIVEN THE
BAND IS NARROWER THAN EVEN THE RAP HAS IT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYLIGHT...WENT WITH TIMING IN BETWEEN THE FASTER LAMP AND SLOWER
RAP. WITH LIGHT SE FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...ANY RIVER
VALLEY FG THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE MAKING ITS WAY
UP ON TO THE FIELD...BUT WITH MID/UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP AROUND 5 KTS...CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING MORE FG TONIGHT IS PRETTY LOW. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
TAF...WILL HAVE TO WATCH MVFR/IFR CIGS COMING UP OUT OF IA FOR
WI THAT COULD IMPACT THE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND -SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY WITH MVFR CLOUDS AFTER
18Z. WINDS NE AT 5-10 KTS
TUE...IFR CLOUDS/FOG AND -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY WITH MVFR CLOUDS
AFTER 18Z. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 10G15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
105 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCT SHRA
AND DRIZZLE TO PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE
CHALLENGES WITH MONITORING SHORT TERM WX TRENDS TODAY IS THAT THE
LOWEST ELEVATION ANGLE OF THE RADAR BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF
THE PCPN BEYOND APPROXIMATELY 40 NMI. FOR EXAMPLE...LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WAS LOWERING VSBYS TO AROUND 4 MI AT KUIN BETWEEN 14-15Z
HOWEVER THE 0.5 DEGREE ELEVATION SCANS DEPICTED NO PCPN ANYWHERE
NEAR KUIN. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF CLEARING AND A FEW
GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN FAIRLY QUICKLY.
KANOFSKY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN WISCONSIN CONTINUES
TO MEANDER EASTWARD. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES PINWHEELING AROUND
THE VORTEX HAVE BEEN PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR WITHIN THE LSX CWA HAS BEEN
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...AND HAS BEEN LIGHT AND NON-
MEASURABLE. REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE UPSTREAM HAS
BEGUN TO DIMINISH SOME. THE LATEST FORECASTS OF THE HRRR AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND THOUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRATUS...GUSTY
WEST WINDS...AND POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE FOR A COOL DAY
WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THE NWP MODEL SUITE
IS WELL CLUSTERED SHOWING THE UPPER LOW INVOF SRN MI WITH THE
UPPER TROF AXIS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z SAT. LOW LEVEL RH
PROGS SHOW THAT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROF LIFT NEWD...WITH THE TROF SHIFTING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE SOME
90 TO 120 M IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION...WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A
DAY OF TRANSITION AS CLOUDS ERODE AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A BIG WARM-UP
IS ON TAP SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL WAA.
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WITH A DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A 30+
KT SWLY LLJ WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTENING COMBINED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/THE EML WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAA
REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUES FOR THE 18Z TAFS ARE CIG TRENDS AND PCPN
CHCS. EXTENSIVE MVFR-VFR CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24HR TAF PD UNTIL THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANY HOLES THAT
DVLP WILL QUICKLY FILL IN WITH DVLPG STRATOCU DUE TO SFC HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH CLRG SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST BEYOND THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD. SCT SHRA/DZ ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SCT SHRA/DZ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE
AROUND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PDS OF VFR
CIGS THIS AFTN BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AND BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT TOMORROW ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1053 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCT SHRA
AND DRIZZLE TO PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE
CHALLENGES WITH MONITORING SHORT TERM WX TRENDS TODAY IS THAT THE
LOWEST ELEVATION ANGLE OF THE RADAR BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF
THE PCPN BEYOND APPROXIMATELY 40 NMI. FOR EXAMPLE...LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WAS LOWERING VSBYS TO AROUND 4 MI AT KUIN BETWEEN 14-15Z
HOWEVER THE 0.5 DEGREE ELEVATION SCANS DEPICTED NO PCPN ANYWHERE
NEAR KUIN. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF CLEARING AND A FEW
GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN FAIRLY QUICKLY.
KANOFSKY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN WISCONSIN CONTINUES
TO MEANDER EASTWARD. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES PINWHEELING AROUND
THE VORTEX HAVE BEEN PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR WITHIN THE LSX CWA HAS BEEN
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...AND HAS BEEN LIGHT AND NON-
MEASURABLE. REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE UPSTREAM HAS
BEGUN TO DIMINISH SOME. THE LATEST FORECASTS OF THE HRRR AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND THOUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRATUS...GUSTY
WEST WINDS...AND POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE FOR A COOL DAY
WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THE NWP MODEL SUITE
IS WELL CLUSTERED SHOWING THE UPPER LOW INVOF SRN MI WITH THE
UPPER TROF AXIS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z SAT. LOW LEVEL RH
PROGS SHOW THAT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROF LIFT NEWD...WITH THE TROF SHIFTING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE SOME
90 TO 120 M IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION...WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A
DAY OF TRANSITION AS CLOUDS ERODE AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A BIG WARM-UP
IS ON TAP SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL WAA.
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WITH A DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A 30+
KT SWLY LLJ WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTENING COMBINED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/THE EML WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAA
REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
LARGE LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS WELL AS LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS
WELL AS GUIDANCE SUGGEST RA WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ENDING OF
PRECIP. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREV TAFS...BUT OVERALL DELAYED
CIGS LIFTING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH NO INSOLATION ANTICIPATED TODAY.
REGARDLESS...CLOUDS SHUD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND VEER SLIGHTLY TO NWLY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...ONGOING RA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...THO EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHUD REMAIN IN
THE MVFR RANGE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING...AS CIGS MAY
LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. STRONG WLY WINDS
SHUD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND VEER SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT.
TILLY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
637 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN WISCONSIN CONTINUES
TO MEANDER EASTWARD. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES PINWHEELING AROUND
THE VORTEX HAVE BEEN PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR WITHIN THE LSX CWA HAS BEEN
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...AND HAS BEEN LIGHT AND NON-
MEASURABLE. REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE UPSTREAM HAS
BEGUN TO DIMINISH SOME. THE LATEST FORECASTS OF THE HRRR AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND THOUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRATUS...GUSTY
WEST WINDS...AND POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE FOR A COOL DAY
WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THE NWP MODEL SUITE
IS WELL CLUSTERED SHOWING THE UPPER LOW INVOF SRN MI WITH THE
UPPER TROF AXIS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z SAT. LOW LEVEL RH
PROGS SHOW THAT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROF LIFT NEWD...WITH THE TROF SHIFTING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE SOME
90 TO 120 M IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION...WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A
DAY OF TRANSITION AS CLOUDS ERODE AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A BIG WARM-UP
IS ON TAP SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL WAA.
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WITH A DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A 30+
KT SWLY LLJ WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTENING COMBINED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/THE EML WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAA
REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
LARGE LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS WELL AS LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS
WELL AS GUIDANCE SUGGEST RA WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ENDING OF
PRECIP. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREV TAFS...BUT OVERALL DELAYED
CIGS LIFTING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH NO INSOLATION ANTICIPATED TODAY.
REGARDLESS...CLOUDS SHUD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND VEER SLIGHTLY TO NWLY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...ONGOING RA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...THO EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHUD REMAIN IN
THE MVFR RANGE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING...AS CIGS MAY
LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. STRONG WLY WINDS
SHUD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND VEER SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT.
TILLY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN WISCONSIN CONTINUES
TO MEANDER EASTWARD. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES PINWHEELING AROUND
THE VORTEX HAVE BEEN PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR WITHIN THE LSX CWA HAS BEEN
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...AND HAS BEEN LIGHT AND NON-
MEASURABLE. REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE UPSTREAM HAS
BEGUN TO DIMINISH SOME. THE LATEST FORECASTS OF THE HRRR AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND THOUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRATUS...GUSTY
WEST WINDS...AND POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE FOR A COOL DAY
WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THE NWP MODEL SUITE
IS WELL CLUSTERED SHOWING THE UPPER LOW INVOF SRN MI WITH THE
UPPER TROF AXIS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z SAT. LOW LEVEL RH
PROGS SHOW THAT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROF LIFT NEWD...WITH THE TROF SHIFTING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE SOME
90 TO 120 M IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION...WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A
DAY OF TRANSITION AS CLOUDS ERODE AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A BIG WARM-UP
IS ON TAP SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL WAA.
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WITH A DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A 30+
KT SWLY LLJ WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTENING COMBINED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/THE EML WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAA
REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
LOWER CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH SWD THRU NRN MO AND CNTRL IL
THIS EVENING AND ARE ON COURSE TO IMPACT TERMINALS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE GAINED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS OVER IN SERN IA TO ADD THEM INTO KUIN
OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THRU AND WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SPRINKLES WITH POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVIER SHRA
BUT HANDLED THIS FOR NOW WITH VCSH. RAIN THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
RECEDE ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE GETTING SOME RE-INVIGORATION
FROM DIURNAL INFLUENCES TO PROLONG IT A BIT MORE BEFORE FINALLY
EXITING LATE IN THE DAY. SFC WNDS HAVE GONE GUSTY THIS EVENING
WITH SOME HIGHER WIND ALOFT MIXING DOWN WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE
LIGHT RAIN. THESE GUSTY WLY SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDOWN
FRIDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN REMAINING THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER
BEYOND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...OCNL SPRINKLES WITH VCSH TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MIDDAY-AFTN AND HOW CLOSE
IT WILL BE TO TERMINAL...CIGS SHOULD RISE ON FRIDAY BUT CURRENTLY
BELIEVE THEY WILL BE AOB 3KFT STILL...UNTIL LOSS OF SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN SOME BREAKUP AND RETURN TO VFR. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
RETURN THE LO CIGS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW REMAINING OPTIMISTIC.
ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 2KFT
AROUND 12Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
UPDATING TO BUMP UP POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70/I-64 CORRIDOR IN
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS RESPECTIVELY. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AT
THIS TIME...AND HRRR TAKES THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND DROPS IT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIP VERY WELL...SO
HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT IT AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
(TONIGHT)
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 KTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GRTLKS AND A SFC
HIGH OVER TX. SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE GRTLKS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF ISO-SCT SHRA ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
CWA.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH IT SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST. SO WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MEXICO MO TO SPARTA IL LINE. THEN THE
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE FILTERING IN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.
THEN BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPS TO BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP...INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...MAYBE EVEN UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL MO.
THEN NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT ALL SEEM TO HINT AT STALLING IT OUT JUST NORTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
LOWER CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH SWD THRU NRN MO AND CNTRL IL
THIS EVENING AND ARE ON COURSE TO IMPACT TERMINALS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE GAINED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS OVER IN SERN IA TO ADD THEM INTO KUIN
OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THRU AND WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SPRINKLES WITH POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVIER SHRA
BUT HANDLED THIS FOR NOW WITH VCSH. RAIN THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
RECEDE ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE GETTING SOME RE-INVIGORATION
FROM DIURNAL INFLUENCES TO PROLONG IT A BIT MORE BEFORE FINALLY
EXITING LATE IN THE DAY. SFC WNDS HAVE GONE GUSTY THIS EVENING
WITH SOME HIGHER WIND ALOFT MIXING DOWN WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE
LIGHT RAIN. THESE GUSTY WLY SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDOWN
FRIDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN REMAINING THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER
BEYOND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...OCNL SPRINKLES WITH VCSH TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MIDDAY-AFTN AND HOW CLOSE
IT WILL BE TO TERMINAL...CIGS SHOULD RISE ON FRIDAY BUT CURRENTLY
BELIEVE THEY WILL BE AOB 3KFT STILL...UNTIL LOSS OF SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN SOME BREAKUP AND RETURN TO VFR. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
RETURN THE LO CIGS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW REMAINING OPTIMISTIC.
ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 2KFT
AROUND 12Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEW YORK, EAST OF I81 AND OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN OUR AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS FROM THE LOW WILL BE SCATTERED
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...SFC WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING
VALLEY WITH ACTIVITY NOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS, NO OTHER CHANGES.
945 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
MAINLY EAST OF I81 AND NORTHEAST PA. OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SYR AREA SOUTH ACROSS BGM INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. SFC WAVE
ALONG BOUNDARY OVER SE PA WILL ACT TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH KEEPING ACTIVITY IN SAME
LOCATION UNTIL EASTWARD PROGRESS COMMENCES AGAIN. WEAK INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH FRONTAL LIFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS
INDICATE ANY STRONGER RETURNS ON RADAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
FNT DEAD CNTR OVER THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RW+
AND AN ISLTD LGTNG STRIKES OVER NE PA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS
ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FNT PUSHING IT AND THE HEAVIEST
RAIN EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z...DESPITE THE DVLPG SFC LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE AHD OF THE FNT WITH A GULF
CONNECTION AND PWATS NEAR 180% OF NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS AHD OF THE FNT WILL CONT TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE GOOD
FRCG OF THE FNT.
HRRR AND NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN BEING TOSSED BACK BHD THE FNT LTR
THIS MRNG AS THE LOW MVES NEWRD...SO WILL KEEP HIER POPS OVER THE
ERN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DESPITE THE ERWRD MVMT OF THE
BNDRY.
SINCE THE LATEST MODEL FCSTS KEEP THE FNT PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST AREA...HEAVY RAINS SHD NOT BE A PRBLM...WITH STORM TTLS WELL
BLO FFG AND HEADWATERS GUID. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE FNT...AND
THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APRCHG WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PLODS SLOWLY EAST AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS. DRY SLOT BHD THE FNT
TODAY IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR BUF BY 00Z
SUN. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING AS THE COLD CORE APRCHS. DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR TRWS ATTM...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD WEAK STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT AFTN...ESP WITH ANY HTG.
BY SUN...PROGRESSIVE LOW IS NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MVG BACK IN FROM THE OH VLY. ENUF LEFTIOVER
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS OVER THE NRN ZONES...ESP
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. ANY PCPN WILL BE LGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
WITH TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ONE EARLY AND ONE LATE. THE FIRST
WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE IN UPSTATE NY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN PA. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE FORCING WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ON THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION FOR WHAT SHOULD
BE A DRY PERIOD WED TO THU. A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED WITH A BACK EDGE OF RME BGM AND
TOWANDA PA. THESE WILL KEEP MOVING EAST TO END AT RME BGM AVP
AROUND 21Z. IFR CIGS ONLY LEFT AT KBGM WITH MVFR AT REST. SYR AND
RME HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. REST OF SITES WILL
HAVE CIGS RISE TO VFR BETWEEN 22Z TO 03Z AT KBGM.
LATE TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE CLEAR SKIES IN WRN NY AND WRN PA WILL MAKE IT
HERE. THIS CLEARING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND MAYBE
FORM FOG. TRICKY PART IS BACK EDGE OF CURRENT CLOUDS IS SLOWING
WHILE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE EAST. IN ADDITION DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL. VFR CIGS SATURDAY.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS AT AROUND 8 KTS
STARTING 14Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTN AND NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN OCNL -SHRA.
SUN TO TUE...MAINLY VFR.
TUE NGT AND WED...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/RRM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEW YORK, EAST OF I81 AND OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN OUR AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS FROM THE LOW WILL BE SCATTERED
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...SFC WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING
VALLEY WITH ACTIVITY NOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS, NO OTHER CHANGES.
945 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
MAINLY EAST OF I81 AND NORTHEAST PA. OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SYR AREA SOUTH ACROSS BGM INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. SFC WAVE
ALONG BOUNDARY OVER SE PA WILL ACT TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH KEEPING ACTIVITY IN SAME
LOCATION UNTIL EASTWARD PROGRESS COMMENCES AGAIN. WEAK INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH FRONTAL LIFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS
INDICATE ANY STRONGER RETURNS ON RADAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
FNT DEAD CNTR OVER THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RW+
AND AN ISLTD LGTNG STRIKES OVER NE PA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS
ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FNT PUSHING IT AND THE HEAVIEST
RAIN EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z...DESPITE THE DVLPG SFC LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE AHD OF THE FNT WITH A GULF
CONNECTION AND PWATS NEAR 180% OF NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS AHD OF THE FNT WILL CONT TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE GOOD
FRCG OF THE FNT.
HRRR AND NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN BEING TOSSED BACK BHD THE FNT LTR
THIS MRNG AS THE LOW MVES NEWRD...SO WILL KEEP HIER POPS OVER THE
ERN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DESPITE THE ERWRD MVMT OF THE
BNDRY.
SINCE THE LATEST MODEL FCSTS KEEP THE FNT PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST AREA...HEAVY RAINS SHD NOT BE A PRBLM...WITH STORM TTLS WELL
BLO FFG AND HEADWATERS GUID. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE FNT...AND
THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APRCHG WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PLODS SLOWLY EAST AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS. DRY SLOT BHD THE FNT
TODAY IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR BUF BY 00Z
SUN. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING AS THE COLD CORE APRCHS. DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR TRWS ATTM...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD WEAK STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT AFTN...ESP WITH ANY HTG.
BY SUN...PROGRESSIVE LOW IS NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MVG BACK IN FROM THE OH VLY. ENUF LEFTIOVER
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS OVER THE NRN ZONES...ESP
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. ANY PCPN WILL BE LGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE THINGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY WITH LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH POSSIBLE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR NRN CWA ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT THEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 AM UPDATE...
THE FIRST MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXITING THE REGION TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. KAVP HAS A THUNDERSTORM NOW THAT MAY LAST
AN HOUR BEFORE A BREAK. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WILL EXPAND AND FILL IN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO NOON.
SKY COVER IS ERRATIC IN THE INTERIM. BEFORE THE SHOWERS COME IN
BGMA ND SYR BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR AND VFR. WITH THE SHOWERS CIGS
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. CIGS AS LOW AS 1500 FT.
MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z, SO THE CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS SCATTER OUT THE MVFR
CLOUD COVER PRIOR TO SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN OCNL -SHRA.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE...BECOMING MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/RRM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
950 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEW YORK, EAST OF I81 AND OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN OUR AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS FROM THE LOW WILL BE SCATTERED
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
MAINLY EAST OF I81 AND NORTHEAST PA. OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SYR AREA SOUTH ACROSS BGM INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. SFC WAVE
ALONG BOUNDARY OVER SE PA WILL ACT TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH KEEPING ACTIVITY IN SAME
LOCATION UNTIL EASTWARD PROGRESS COMMENCES AGAIN. WEAK INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH FRONTAL LIFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS
INDICATE ANY STRONGER RETURNS ON RADAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
FNT DEAD CNTR OVER THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RW+
AND AN ISLTD LGTNG STRIKES OVER NE PA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS
ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FNT PUSHING IT AND THE HEAVIEST
RAIN EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z...DESPITE THE DVLPG SFC LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE AHD OF THE FNT WITH A GULF
CONNECTION AND PWATS NEAR 180% OF NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS AHD OF THE FNT WILL CONT TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE GOOD
FRCG OF THE FNT.
HRRR AND NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN BEING TOSSED BACK BHD THE FNT LTR
THIS MRNG AS THE LOW MVES NEWRD...SO WILL KEEP HIER POPS OVER THE
ERN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DESPITE THE ERWRD MVMT OF THE
BNDRY.
SINCE THE LATEST MODEL FCSTS KEEP THE FNT PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST AREA...HEAVY RAINS SHD NOT BE A PRBLM...WITH STORM TTLS WELL
BLO FFG AND HEADWATERS GUID. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE FNT...AND
THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APRCHG WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PLODS SLOWLY EAST AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS. DRY SLOT BHD THE FNT
TODAY IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR BUF BY 00Z
SUN. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING AS THE COLD CORE APRCHS. DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR TRWS ATTM...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD WEAK STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT AFTN...ESP WITH ANY HTG.
BY SUN...PROGRESSIVE LOW IS NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MVG BACK IN FROM THE OH VLY. ENUF LEFTIOVER
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS OVER THE NRN ZONES...ESP
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. ANY PCPN WILL BE LGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE THINGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY WITH LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH POSSIBLE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR NRN CWA ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT THEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 AM UPDATE...
THE FIRST MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXITING THE REGION TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. KAVP HAS A THUNDERSTORM NOW THAT MAY LAST
AN HOUR BEFORE A BREAK. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WILL EXPAND AND FILL IN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO NOON.
SKY COVER IS ERRATIC IN THE INTERIM. BEFORE THE SHOWERS COME IN
BGMA ND SYR BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR AND VFR. WITH THE SHOWERS CIGS
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. CIGS AS LOW AS 1500 FT.
MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z, SO THE CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS SCATTER OUT THE MVFR
CLOUD COVER PRIOR TO SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN OCNL -SHRA.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE...BECOMING MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/RRM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
804 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS FROM THE LOW WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FNT DEAD CNTR OVER THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RW+ AND
AN ISLTD LGTNG STRIKES OVER NE PA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS ARE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FNT PUSHING IT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z...DESPITE THE DVLPG SFC LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE AHD OF THE FNT WITH A GULF
CONNECTION AND PWATS NEAR 180% OF NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS AHD OF THE FNT WILL CONT TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE GOOD
FRCG OF THE FNT.
HRRR AND NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN BEING TOSSED BACK BHD THE FNT LTR
THIS MRNG AS THE LOW MVES NEWRD...SO WILL KEEP HIER POPS OVER THE
ERN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DESPITE THE ERWRD MVMT OF THE
BNDRY.
SINCE THE LATEST MODEL FCSTS KEEP THE FNT PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST AREA...HEAVY RAINS SHD NOT BE A PRBLM...WITH STORM TTLS WELL
BLO FFG AND HEADWATERS GUID. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE FNT...AND
THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APRCHG WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PLODS SLOWLY EAST AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS. DRY SLOT BHD THE FNT
TODAY IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR BUF BY 00Z
SUN. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING AS THE COLD CORE APRCHS. DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR TRWS ATTM...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD WEAK STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT AFTN...ESP WITH ANY HTG.
BY SUN...PROGRESSIVE LOW IS NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MVG BACK IN FROM THE OH VLY. ENUF LEFTIOVER
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS OVER THE NRN ZONES...ESP
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. ANY PCPN WILL BE LGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE THINGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY WITH LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH POSSIBLE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR NRN CWA ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT THEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 AM UPDATE...
THE FIRST MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXITING THE REGION TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. KAVP HAS A THUNDERSTORM NOW THAT MAY LAST
AN HOUR BEFORE A BREAK. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WILL EXPAND AND FILL IN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO NOON.
SKY COVER IS ERRATIC IN THE INTERIM. BEFORE THE SHOWERS COME IN
BGMA ND SYR BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR AND VFR. WITH THE SHOWERS CIGS
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. CIGS AS LOW AS 1500 FT.
MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z, SO THE CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS SCATTER OUT THE MVFR
CLOUD COVER PRIOR TO SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN OCNL -SHRA.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE...BECOMING MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
614 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS FROM THE LOW WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FNT DEAD CNTR OVER THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RW+ AND
AN ISLTD LGTNG STRIKES OVER NE PA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS ARE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FNT PUSHING IT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY 12Z...DESPITE THE DVLPG SFC LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE AHD OF THE FNT WITH A GULF
CONNECTION AND PWATS NEAR 180% OF NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS AHD OF THE FNT WILL CONT TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE GOOD
FRCG OF THE FNT.
HRRR AND NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN BEING TOSSED BACK BHD THE FNT LTR
THIS MRNG AS THE LOW MVES NEWRD...SO WILL KEEP HIER POPS OVER THE
ERN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DESPITE THE ERWRD MVMT OF THE
BNDRY.
SINCE THE LATEST MODEL FCSTS KEEP THE FNT PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST AREA...HEAVY RAINS SHD NOT BE A PRBLM...WITH STORM TTLS WELL
BLO FFG AND HEADWATERS GUID. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE FNT...AND
THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APRCHG WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PLODS SLOWLY EAST AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS. DRY SLOT BHD THE FNT
TODAY IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR BUF BY 00Z
SUN. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING AS THE COLD CORE APRCHS. DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR TRWS ATTM...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD WEAK STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT AFTN...ESP WITH ANY HTG.
BY SUN...PROGRESSIVE LOW IS NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MVG BACK IN FROM THE OH VLY. ENUF LEFTIOVER
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS OVER THE NRN ZONES...ESP
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. ANY PCPN WILL BE LGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE THINGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY WITH LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH POSSIBLE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR NRN CWA ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT THEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO NOON.
SKY COVER IS ERRATIC IN THE INTERIM. MIXING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT IS BATTLING AGAINST A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN A BROKEN 2000 FT DECK
AND A BROKEN 6000 FT DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z, SO THE CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD
COVER PRIOR TO SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN OCNL -SHRA.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS FROM THE LOW WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FNT DEAD CNTR OVER THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RW+ AND
AN ISLTD LGTNG STRIKES OVER NE PA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS ARE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FNT PUSHING IT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY 12Z...DESPITE THE DVLPG SFC LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE AHD OF THE FNT WITH A GULF
CONNECTION AND PWATS NEAR 180% OF NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS AHD OF THE FNT WILL CONT TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE GOOD
FRCG OF THE FNT.
HRRR AND NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN BEING TOSSED BACK BHD THE FNT LTR
THIS MRNG AS THE LOW MVES NEWRD...SO WILL KEEP HIER POPS OVER THE
ERN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY DESPITE THE ERWRD MVMT OF THE
BNDRY.
SINCE THE LATEST MODEL FCSTS KEEP THE FNT PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST AREA...HEAVY RAINS SHD NOT BE A PRBLM...WITH STORM TTLS WELL
BLO FFG AND HEADWATERS GUID. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE FNT...AND
THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APRCHG WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PLODS SLOWLY EAST AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS. DRY SLOT BHD THE FNT
TODAY IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR BUF BY 00Z
SUN. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING AS THE COLD CORE APRCHS. DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR TRWS ATTM...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD WEAK STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT AFTN...ESP WITH ANY HTG.
BY SUN...PROGRESSIVE LOW IS NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MVG BACK IN FROM THE OH VLY. ENUF LEFTIOVER
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS OVER THE NRN ZONES...ESP
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. ANY PCPN WILL BE LGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE THINGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY WITH LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH POSSIBLE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR NRN CWA ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT THEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED, THOUGH
THE DENSITY IS TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH 9Z, WITH MAINLY MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE
IN DOWNPOURS.
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS UNREALISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER WESTERN PA AND SOUTHWESTERN NY OBS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
DENSE FOG FORMATION. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z AT BGM/ELM/ITH. THERE IS
LESS OF A CHANCE UP THE LAKE PLAIN TOWARD SYR/RME WHERE THE
TERRAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING WINDS.
A BROKEN 1500-2500 DECK IS FORECAST FOR TODAY, POSSIBLY GOING
SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN OCNL -SHRA.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
134 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. UNSETTLED
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE TIMING TO SPEED UP THE ONSET OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
ALSO ADDED THUNDER BECAUSE THUNDER JUST UPSTREAM IN MIDDLETOWN.
TEMPERATURES AT THEIR LOWS NOW SO ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES EAST. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A DEEPLY WOUND- UP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISS RVR VLY
WITH RUC POTENTIAL VORTICITY COMPOSITES INDICATING THE THE UPPER
PV ANOMALY EXTENDS DOWN TO NEAR 500 MB ACROSS THE OHIO/MISS RVR
CONFLUENCE REGION. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY HELP PROPEL THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EAST INTO OUR FCST AREA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
NOW SHOWING INITIAL FRONTAL WAVE RAIN BAND SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WITH TIME
SHOULD BEGIN ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE SFC...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEEPLY
WOUND-UP SYSTEM AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST HAS
ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS HAS THE BEEN THE CONCERN IN RECENT DAYS...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A DECENT RAINFALL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS
INITIAL PV ANOMALY AND SFC FRONT TRANSLATE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CHARACTERIZED
H925 V-WIND COMPONENTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL WILL HELP INCREASE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER 1 INCH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z FRI. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS NOW SHOWING A
SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE AND CORRESPONDING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY HELP
STALL THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH TIME ACROSS OUR FCST AREA EARLY
FRI. BY 15Z...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TRIPLE POINT WILL RESIDE
OVER OR REGION WITH EASTERN ZONES EFFECTIVELY BECOMING PLACED IN
MODIFYING WARM SECTOR AIR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AFTER 12Z FRI AS DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE ALOFT...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE
ENTRANCE OF A MID-LEVEL JET BY LATE MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION. CONSIDERING
THAT SUCH STRONG WIND FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WELL OVER 50 KTS)...DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE SHEARED
APART AS IT FIRES. THAT SAID...WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTED
WITH TODAY/S RUNS...HAVE ELECTED TO REINTRODUCE A THUNDER MENTION
FOR FRI FROM THE LWR WYOMING VLY NORTH THROUGH THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS.
WITH RESPECT TO FCST QPF AMOUNTS...HPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE CLOSE TO 2" ACROSS THE EASTERN POCONOS AND CATSKILLS
WHERE MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED BOTH HPC AND RFC QPF GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. BY LATE MORNING...MODELS INDICATE THAT A WELL DEVELOPED DRY
SLOT WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN RAIN COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE REGION BOTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...MAIN RAIN BAND
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS NORTHWARD
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FINALLY EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT LINGERING...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION FOR POPS FRI NGT. FOR SATURDAY...UPPER
WAVE TO INCH EVER SO CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHWRS LATE SAT
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING SHWRS
APPEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE MAIN SFC LOW FCST
TO LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
UPPER LOW TO FINALLY BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISS RVR
VLY/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. BEHIND THE FEATURE...H85
TEMPS ONLY DROP TO NEAR 0C WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHWRS JUST TO OUR NORTH IN SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE THINGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY WITH LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH POSSIBLE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR NRN CWA ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT THEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED, THOUGH
THE DENSITY IS TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH 9Z, WITH MAINLY MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE
IN DOWNPOURS.
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS UNREALISTIC WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER WESTERN PA AND SOUTHWESTERN NY OBS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
DENSE FOG FORMATION. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z AT BGM/ELM/ITH. THERE IS
LESS OF A CHANCE UP THE LAKE PLAIN TOWARD SYR/RME WHERE THE
TERRAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING WINDS.
A BROKEN 1500-2500 DECK IS FORECAST FOR TODAY, POSSIBLY GOING
SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN OCNL -SHRA.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...STRUGGLING
TO GET PAST US HWY 1 THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT MORE EFFICIENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE
SHARP DEWPOINT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
LIMITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO A NARROW STRIP ALONG A REGION
CONFLUENCE FROM LEXINGTON TO ROXBORO. HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AFTER 20Z...BUT THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP...MOSTLY IN THE TEENS THUS FAR...BUT A FEW MAY REACH 20-25KT
BEFORE SUNSET.
TONIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
GA/SC...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MAY LIMIT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST. A
SPEED MAX DIVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ADDED DPVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ENHANCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER AS RH CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER (5-8KT FT). WITH WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION/FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL USE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR
HIGHS...YIELDING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE DIVING JUST SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITHOUT
CIRRUS...THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION IN IT WAKE AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A RAPID WARM-UP/MODERATION FROM BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
CHILLY MORNING LOWS BOTH MORNINGS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL ENVELOP THE SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN US
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US
TROUGH. WHILE THERE ARE SOME GROSS DIFFERENCES WITH HOW NWP MODELS
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED REX
BLOCK...CENTRAL NC LOOKS TO BE WELL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AT ARMS LENGTH...TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS...THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM AND QUITE WEATHER CONDITIONS("INDIAN
SUMMER")THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WELL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM FRIDAY...
WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN KRDU AND
KRWI...IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
BROUGHT PRECIP TO AN END. VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL NC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (KINT/KGSO).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER
THAN PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CU ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BE PREDOMINATELY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS SATURDAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...STRUGGLING
TO GET PAST US HWY 1 THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT MORE EFFICIENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE
SHARP DEWPOINT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
LIMITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO A NARROW STRIP ALONG A REGION
CONFLUENCE FROM LEXINGTON TO ROXBORO. HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AFTER 20Z...BUT THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP...MOSTLY IN THE TEENS THUS FAR...BUT A FEW MAY REACH 20-25KT
BEFORE SUNSET.
TONIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
GA/SC...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MAY LIMIT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST. A
SPEED MAX DIVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.
THE ADDED DPVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ENHANCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER AS RH CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER (5-8KT FT). WITH WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION/FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL USE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR
HIGHS...YIELDING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE DIVING JUST SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITHOUT
CIRRUS...THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 318 AM FRIDAY...
TO BE UPDATE SHORTLY...
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA AS THE CURRENT DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF
OUR REGION... ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S... WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO EVEN AROUND 80 DEGREE BY MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER... OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS (AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM FRIDAY...
WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN KRDU AND
KRWI...IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
BROUGHT PRECIP TO AN END. VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL NC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (KINT/KGSO).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER
THAN PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CU ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BE PREDOMINATELY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS SATURDAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1035 AM FRI...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS IN OBS/SATELLITE/RADAR. FOR TODAY...A DEEP
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS ERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS
BECOMING SWLY AFTER FROPA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE M/U70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH A WEAK VORT LOBE MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT LATE
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50 WELL INLAND AND
M50S CLOSER TO THE COAST TO M60S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND SHRT WV WILL BE EXITING OFF
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SECONDARY FRONT WITH UPR TROF AXIS
WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS BUT DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRECLUDE ANY PCPN. RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER AREA SUN-WED. ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN
GFS WITH NEXT SHRT WV AFFECTING AREA THU...BUT MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE TOO LIMITED FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER A MILD DAY ON SAT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SUN
AND MON WITH CAA. GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL ON THU.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
AREA OF SHOWERS QUICKLY WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH ERN NC AND
EXPECT ONLY ISO SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR THROUGH 14Z. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING FRI
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING PERIOD WITH HIGH AND
DRY CONDITIONS. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG PSBL MAINLY MON AND
TUE...ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KEWN DUE TO STEAM-TYPE FOG FROM NEARBY
WATER SOURCES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT SOUTH OF
DIAMOND SHOALS AND 5-7 FT NORTH. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS HAVE CONTINUED BELOW 6 FT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THOSE WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE W TODAY WITH S/SWLY FLOW MAINLY AROUND 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILT TO AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT AFTER FROPA WITH W/SW WINDS AROUND
10-15 KT. WAVEWATCH DROPS SEAS BELOW 6 FT ALL WATERS AROUND 00Z SAT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PER PREVIOUS FCST THINKING AND GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...STRONGER WINDS WITH CAA WILL OCCUR
BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH PERIOD
OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH REST OF PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDING OVER AREA
FROM WEST. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MON AFTN INTO TUE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SEAS FCST...BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST WW3 AND
SWAN. HEIGHTS 3-5 FT WILL PERSIST SAT INTO SUN...THEN SUBSIDE TO
MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS BY TUE.
RIP CURRENTS...COMBO OF LONG PERIOD SE SWELL...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND BREEZY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERAS TODAY...AND MODERATE THREAT REST
OF BEACHES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:35 AM FRIDAY...THE FRONT...ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
PRIMARILY DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITIES...LIES BETWEEN WHITEVILLE AND
LUMBERTON EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED ACROSS EARLIER IS WELL OFFSHORE. THE 1200 UTC NAM AND HRRR DO
SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY 1700/1800 UTC ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHILE THE 0600 GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
JUST SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO MATCH HOURLY OBSERVATIONS BUT MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AS COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE COAST ON SAT. PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. 5H
TROUGHING YIELDS TO BUILDING 5H RIDGE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. COLD AIR
IS SLOW TO ARRIVE WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT COMMENCING UNTIL SAT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO FOR SAT BUT ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR LATE SAT NIGHT MAY LEAD TO A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT SUN MORNING.
INLAND AREAS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST LOWS WILL
END UP ABOVE CLIMO. COLDER AIR IN PLACE SUN/SUN WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION DRY. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST. HIGHS START TO
WARM AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SETTING UP OVER
THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. UNSURE HOW
SUCCESSFUL THIS FEATURE WILL BE AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN FULL SUN
AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE THINK HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO SHOULD IT PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKIER AS GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PART IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
CREEP UP FROM CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH SHOULD IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUE NUMBERS COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HAVE BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND KILM COULD SEE TEMPO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLBT
SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...GRADUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. W/SW WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE OF FOG/REDUCED VSBYS MON AND TUE
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:35 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WITH
THE MID MORNING UPDATE. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WITH AROUND TEN TONIGHT. SEAS ARE ON TRACK AS WELL WITH JUST
OVER THREE FEET AT 41110 AND 41013.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST AT THE START
OF THE TO THE PERIOD TO NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT. ARRIVAL OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW KT TO WIND SPEEDS SAT NIGHT AND INCREASE
GUST STRENGTH. HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA. NORTHERLY FLOW SUN WILL BECOME NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS NORTH. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOLID 15 KT POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL DECREASE TO 2 TO 3 FT FOR
SUN/SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
AND A WEAK SOUTHEAST SWELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
10 KT OR LESS WILL RESULT IN SEAS RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT MON AND TUE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...REK/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
754 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...A DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT. AREA OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUICKLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO ERN NC
AS PROGGED BY NSSL WRF AND HRRR MODELS AND THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS ERN NC LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH WINDS BECOMING SWLY AFTER FROPA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
M/U70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH A WEAK VORT LOBE MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT LATE
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50 WELL INLAND AND
M50S CLOSER TO THE COAST TO M60S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND SHRT WV WILL BE EXITING OFF
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SECONDARY FRONT WITH UPR TROF AXIS
WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS BUT DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRECLUDE ANY PCPN. RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER AREA SUN-WED. ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN
GFS WITH NEXT SHRT WV AFFECTING AREA THU...BUT MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE TOO LIMITED FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER A MILD DAY ON SAT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SUN
AND MON WITH CAA. GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL ON THU.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
AREA OF SHOWERS QUICKLY WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH ERN NC AND
EXPECT ONLY ISO SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR THROUGH 14Z. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING FRI
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING PERIOD WITH HIGH AND
DRY CONDITIONS. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG PSBL MAINLY MON AND
TUE...ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KEWN DUE TO STEAM-TYPE FOG FROM NEARBY
WATER SOURCES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE W TODAY WITH
S/SWLY FLOW MAINLY AROUND 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
SEAS HAVE BUILT AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL MAINTAIN SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. NOT MUCH OF
A WIND SHIFT AFTER FROPA WITH W/SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT.
WAVEWATCH DROPS SEAS BELOW 6 FT ALL WATERS AROUND 00Z SAT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PER PREVIOUS FCST THINKING AND GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...STRONGER WINDS WITH CAA WILL OCCUR
BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH PERIOD
OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH REST OF PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDING OVER AREA
FROM WEST. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MON AFTN INTO TUE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SEAS FCST...BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST WW3 AND
SWAN. HEIGHTS 3-5 FT WILL PERSIST SAT INTO SUN...THEN SUBSIDE TO
MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS BY TUE.
RIP CURRENTS...COMBO OF LONG PERIOD SE SWELL...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND BREEZY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERAS TODAY...AND MODERATE THREAT REST
OF BEACHES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-
104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/JME/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO BREAK
OUT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS APPROACHING
OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW:
BOWLING BALL LOW PRESSURE BARRELING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS DRIVING
A POTENT SFC COLD FRONT TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
AT THE MOMENT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
REACH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND OFF THE ILM CWA
COAST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND ENDING THE 40 PERCENT THREAT FOR
CONVECTION.
WV/11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY SHOW TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST...WHICH
IS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHICH IS A DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM
A REMNANT UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE THAT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST. A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PARTIALLY MERGE WITH THE
1ST AREA OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF ROTATING
AROUND THE MASSIVE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THE DYNAMICS
FROM THIS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND THE SFC FEATURES...WILL
END PRODUCE A DEVELOPING/MOVING BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS CROSSING THE ILM CWA. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BECOME MORE
OBSESSIVE WITH THIS OUTCOME OVERNIGHT...WITH A MORE ROBUST NE-SW LINE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 07-08Z...AND REACHING THE COAST BY 10-13Z
FRI. STILL LOOKING AT SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER...FALLING ONLY SLOWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MORE
RAPIDLY IN THE EXTREME WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
MINS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW 60 IN THE EXTREME NW...TO THE MID
60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING AS A MODERATELY WEAK COLD
FRONT TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS HOWEVER MAY LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL/EASTERN ZONES WITH
HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO 12000 FEET. BY FRIDAY EVENING
IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION WILL SHUT DOWN DUE TO FURTHER DRYING
AND DIURNAL COOLING.
DESPITE THE DRYING REGIME...NORTH WINDS WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL
LAGGING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THUS DRYING WILL BE OUTPACING
THE WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION. THE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE MORE
EVIDENT LATE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND IMPARTS NORTH WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH
BUILDING 500MB RIDGE TO CREATE SUNNY AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WEAK S/W WILL BE EXITING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
CREATING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE
WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE SUNDAY...WEAK CAA ON LEE SIDE OF ADVANCING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.
THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE WATERS
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BULGES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CI WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT SKY COVER...MON-THU
WILL FEATURE NEARLY COMPLETE SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS RISING EACH
DAY...FROM MID 70S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 WED/THU. NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SUGGESTS MINS WILL FALL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE.
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE KFLO/KLBT TERMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GENERALLY
VFR EXPECTED WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR. ANY IFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF TOO SHORT OF A DURATION TO MENTION. AFTER THE
RAIN ENDS AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF POST FRONTAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. THIS SHOULD LAST 2-3 HOURS OR UNTIL STRONGER WINDS AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES IN LIFTING CONDITIONS TO VFR. AS
THE RAIN AFFECTS THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS EXPECT
THE SAME GENERAL VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN MAY BE OF SHORTER DURATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING BEFORE STRONGER
WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES IN LIFTING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 13-15Z
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE OF PRE-DAWN FOG/SUB-VFR VSBYS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...SW WINDS NOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. ALL GOING AS PLANNED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS BELOW:
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW ALTOGETHER AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. AS THE WINDS PICK UP SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY...FROM
THE CURRENT 3 FT...TO 3-4 FT...THANKS TO AN INCREASED CONTRIBUTION
FROM THE 4-5 SECOND WIND CHOP. A SLIGHTLY DECREASING 3 FT 10-11
SEC EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE SPECTRUM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BARELY SHIFTING WINDS...MAINLY FROM SW
TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON. WSW-W WINDS LOOK TO PREVAIL SATURDAY 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL BRING WINDS TO
THE NW AND NNW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY WIND
SPEEDS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A MIX OF SE
WAVES 2-3 FEET AT 10 SECONDS AND 1-2 FOOT SW WIND-WAVES AND CHOP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...CREATING MOSTLY LIGHT N/NE WINDS EACH DAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING HIGH...CREATING NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10-15 KTS BEFORE EASING BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-3 FT SUNDAY...FALLING TO 1-2 FT MON/TUE AS WINDS EASE AND
ONLY A WEAK SE SWELL PERSISTS WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
903 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT FOCUSES ON PRECIP CHANCES IN DEVILS
LAKE REGION...SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWING
COLDER TOPS EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WITH ONLY
A FEW SITES WHERE GROUND TRUTH IS SHOWING RAIN. RADAR LOOKS MAINLY
LIKE VIRGA/CLOUDS OVER OUR CWA BUT CENTRAL PORTION OF STATE DOES
INDICATE RAIN. THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO UPPER SHEYENNE VALLEY
WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT DID PULL POPS THROUGH 04Z. WILL
NEED TO BUMP UP SKY COVER AND TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN ND...WHERE
PREV FCST INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY (NOW ABOUT OVERCAST). BLEND OF
LATEST RUC AND NAM OBS ALSO INCREASED TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 3 DEG.
WILL WAIT FOR 02Z OBS BEFORE ANY FINAL DECISION ON TEMPS...BUT
DOES LOOK WARMER THAN ORIGINAL FCST. SCT SHOWERS AFT 06Z LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM BUT MAY SEND A LATER UPDATE IF RAIN OVER CNTRL ND
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED ON ITS JOURNEY EAST. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON TUE POPS...INCREASING FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS BUT MAY SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN VCNTY OF DVL TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW BY MORNING. EXPECT MID LEVEL CIGS
THROUGHOUT NIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SETTLE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL
OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AS
RAINFALL THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO PER
HOUR. WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE THE ATTM. SINCE SLOWED
PRECIP ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
DOING 630 AM UPDATE EARLY. HAVE ADDED EARLY MORNING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR THE YNG TO GKJ AREA. ALSO HAVE ADDED CHC OF SPRINKLES
TO CENTRAL PART OF AREA WHERE BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY PRESENT AND
THEN PROG THIS EAST DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN
HINTING AT SPRINKLES FOR THIS AREA AND LATEST RADAR PIX STARTING TO
SHOW SOME INCREASE IN RETURNS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW NEAR
CHICAGO SLOWLY EAST TODAY. RAIN AND SHRA POOLED UNDER THE UPPER LOW
WILL GET AN EASTWARD PUSH TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
LOOKS CATEGORICAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE CENTRAL PART LIKELY
AND MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR THE EAST AS THE BETTER ENERGY DOES NOT
GET THERE UNTIL TONIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
MOST PLACES SEEING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WEST AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS EAST.
THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO FILL IN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER AND SURFACE FORCING WILL
WORK EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COOL RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN A 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...ON SAT THESE
SAME CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY 50 TO 55 FOR MOST PLACES.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO
JUST THE SNOWBELT BY LATE SAT NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF IN THE SNOWBELT
SUNDAY AS THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES AND LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS
LESSEN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION. MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO OR NEAR THE AREA. CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING EACH PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THURSDAY SO WILL PULL
THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD SO EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ALL THREE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. BELIEVE THE LIGHT RAIN WILL REACH NW OHIO AROUND
21Z...CENTRAL AREAS NEAR KCLE AROUND 23Z AND KERI AROUND 03Z.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE LIGHT RAIN AND MAY FALL TO
MVFR LEVELS NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
DIP TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON SATURDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING NE OHIO AND NW PA INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT. S FLOW WILL BECOME SW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A TROUGH FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE FLOW TO AGAIN BECOME S TO SW. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD OCCUR BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE LAKE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT SW FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CLEVELAND OH
924 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SETTLE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL
OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE. SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AS
RAINFALL THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO PER
HOUR. WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE THE ATTM. SINCE SLOWED
PRECIP ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
DOING 630 AM UPDATE EARLY. HAVE ADDED EARLY MORNING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR THE YNG TO GKJ AREA. ALSO HAVE ADDED CHC OF SPRINKLES
TO CENTRAL PART OF AREA WHERE BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY PRESENT AND
THEN PROG THIS EAST DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN
HINTING AT SPRINKLES FOR THIS AREA AND LATEST RADAR PIX STARTING TO
SHOW SOME INCREASE IN RETURNS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW NEAR
CHICAGO SLOWLY EAST TODAY. RAIN AND SHRA POOLED UNDER THE UPPER LOW
WILL GET AN EASTWARD PUSH TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
LOOKS CATEGORICAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE CENTRAL PART LIKELY
AND MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR THE EAST AS THE BETTER ENERGY DOES NOT
GET THERE UNTIL TONIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
MOST PLACES SEEING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WEST AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS EAST.
THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO FILL IN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER AND SURFACE FORCING WILL
WORK EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COOL RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN A 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...ON SAT THESE
SAME CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY 50 TO 55 FOR MOST PLACES.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO
JUST THE SNOWBELT BY LATE SAT NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF IN THE SNOWBELT
SUNDAY AS THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES AND LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS
LESSEN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION. MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO OR NEAR THE AREA. CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING EACH PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THURSDAY SO WILL PULL
THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD SO EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ALL THREE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ABOUT TO REACH NW PA. FOG AT KYNG SHOULD LIFT
SHORTLY. LATEST MODELS BRING PRECIP INTO NW OH AROUND 15Z. WILL
TRY TO TIME IT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH KERI BY EARLY EVENING. STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DIPPING TO MVFR. SOME PATCHY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT. S FLOW WILL BECOME SW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A TROUGH FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE FLOW TO AGAIN BECOME S TO SW. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD OCCUR BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE LAKE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT SW FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SETTLE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL
OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DOING 630 AM UPDATE EARLY. HAVE ADDED EARLY MORNING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR THE YNG TO GKJ AREA. ALSO HAVE ADDED CHC OF SPRINKLES
TO CENTRAL PART OF AREA WHERE BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY PRESENT AND
THEN PROG THIS EAST DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN
HINTING AT SPRINKLES FOR THIS AREA AND LATEST RADAR PIX STARTING TO
SHOW SOME INCREASE IN RETURNS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW NEAR
CHICAGO SLOWLY EAST TODAY. RAIN AND SHRA POOLED UNDER THE UPPER LOW
WILL GET AN EASTWARD PUSH TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
LOOKS CATEGORICAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE CENTRAL PART LIKELY
AND MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR THE EAST AS THE BETTER ENERGY DOES NOT
GET THERE UNTIL TONIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
MOST PLACES SEEING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WEST AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS EAST.
THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO FILL IN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER AND SURFACE FORCING WILL
WORK EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COOL RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN A 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...ON SAT THESE
SAME CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY 50 TO 55 FOR MOST PLACES.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO
JUST THE SNOWBELT BY LATE SAT NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF IN THE SNOWBELT
SUNDAY AS THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES AND LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS
LESSEN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION. MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO OR NEAR THE AREA. CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING EACH PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THURSDAY SO WILL PULL
THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD SO EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ALL THREE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ABOUT TO REACH NW PA. FOG AT KYNG SHOULD LIFT
SHORTLY. LATEST MODELS BRING PRECIP INTO NW OH AROUND 15Z. WILL
TRY TO TIME IT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH KERI BY EARLY EVENING. STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DIPPING TO MVFR. SOME PATCHY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT. S FLOW WILL BECOME SW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A TROUGH FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE FLOW TO AGAIN BECOME S TO SW. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD OCCUR BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE LAKE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT SW FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
520 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SETTLE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL
OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
DOING 630 AM UPDATE EARLY. HAVE ADDED EARLY MORNING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR THE YNG TO GKJ AREA. ALSO HAVE ADDED CHC OF SPRINKLES
TO CENTRAL PART OF AREA WHERE BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY PRESENT AND
THEN PROG THIS EAST DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN
HINTING AT SPRINKLES FOR THIS AREA AND LATEST RADAR PIX STARTING TO
SHOW SOME INCREASE IN RETURNS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW NEAR
CHICAGO SLOWLY EAST TODAY. RAIN AND SHRA POOLED UNDER THE UPPER LOW
WILL GET AN EASTWARD PUSH TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
LOOKS CATEGORICAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE CENTRAL PART LIKELY
AND MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR THE EAST AS THE BETTER ENERGY DOES NOT
GET THERE UNTIL TONIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
MOST PLACES SEEING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WEST AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS EAST.
THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO FILL IN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER AND SURFACE FORCING WILL
WORK EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COOL RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN A 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...ON SAT THESE
SAME CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY 50 TO 55 FOR MOST PLACES.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
START TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO
JUST THE SNOWBELT BY LATE SAT NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF IN THE SNOWBELT
SUNDAY AS THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES AND LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS
LESSEN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION. MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO OR NEAR THE AREA. CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING EACH PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THURSDAY SO WILL PULL
THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD SO EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ALL THREE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODELS SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 15Z BEFORE THE FIRST SHOWERS REACH KTOL
AND KFDY AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY REACH KCLE. STEADIER
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE TOWARD EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT CIGS
AND VSBYS TO DIP TO MVFR AS THIS OCCURS. S TO SE FLOW WILL BECOME
SW THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT. S FLOW WILL BECOME SW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A TROUGH FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE FLOW TO AGAIN BECOME S TO SW. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD OCCUR BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE LAKE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT SW FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN PLACE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED PER RADAR TRENDS IN THE KCLT
AREA. SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT STRATUS COVERAGE FROM
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
TRENDS AS WELL. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
00Z NAM AND 00Z ADJMAV...THE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE FORMER TO CAPTURE
GUSTIER WINDS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST ADJMAV AND ADJMET.
EVENING UPDATE...THE RADAR STILL SHOWS A STORM BEING MAINTAINED
ACROSS RABUN COUNTY HEADING INTO NC JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS STORM COULD BECOME FAIRLY STRONG...BUT DONT ANTICIPATE SEVERE
LEVELS. THE REMNANT STORM ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT IS JUST NOW EXITING
THE CWFA. SOME LINGERING SMALL SCALE -SHRA MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...YET ANYTHING STRONG OR LONG LIVED IS NOT LIKELY. THE
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE THREAT OF FG AND JUST HOW DENSE
IT MAY BECOME. SOME AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING DENSE FG CURRENTLY AROUND
KAND AND KPJ...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY OF AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
MODERATE FG. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER AS THE ERN ZONES HAVE RECEIVED A MODEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
IN THE PAST 6 HRS...WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
CLEARER.
THIS AFTERNOON...STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER UPSTATE
TERRAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES INWARD. SCATTERED
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN THE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER CLEARING OCCURS.
SURFACE FRONT STILL ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY NOW PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH A FEW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NE TN. THIS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO DEPICTION ON 15Z HRRR RUN. THE NE TN ACTIVITY
AFFECTS MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THAT DEPICTION WHILE
THE LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT MAKE IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SUPPORTS EARLIER DECISION TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
NRN CWA NEAR THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IN THE FAR EASTERN
CWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED EARLIER AND THERE HAS BEEN MORE TIME TO
DESTABILIZE...PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 J OR SO OF CAPE WHICH
WARRANTED A CHC MENTION THERE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON THE STRATUS
CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SUBSEQUENT
REVISIONS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA.
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AS WINDS WILL
KEEP THE AREA FROM EXPERIENCING PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
LIKELY KEEPING FOG AT BAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AS WELL.
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...GENERALLY
IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR CWA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT SAT/SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE MTNS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WINDS TO PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PICKS UP AT 12Z
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PERSISTING OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CASE FROM A BLEND OF THE
MAV...MET AND LAMP WOULD YIELD LOW VFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
WITHER NO COG OR A LOW VFR ONE. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10
KNOTS AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY...WHILE SKY COVER CLEARS OUT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS AND FOG LURKING IN THE AREA.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS...AND FAVOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST WILL
FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
AT MOST SITES BEFORE DAYBREAK. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAWN AS SW WINDS BECOME QUITE GUSTY...HASTENING MIXING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE NW AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN PLACE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED PER RADAR TRENDS IN THE KCLT
AREA. SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT STRATUS COVERAGE FROM
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
TRENDS AS WELL. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
00Z NAM AND 00Z ADJMAV...THE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE FORMER TO CAPTURE
GUSTIER WINDS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST ADJMAV AND ADJMET.
EVENING UPDATE...THE RADAR STILL SHOWS A STORM BEING MAINTAINED
ACROSS RABUN COUNTY HEADING INTO NC JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS STORM COULD BECOME FAIRLY STRONG...BUT DONT ANTICIPATE SEVERE
LEVELS. THE REMNANT STORM ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT IS JUST NOW EXITING
THE CWFA. SOME LINGERING SMALL SCALE -SHRA MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...YET ANYTHING STRONG OR LONG LIVED IS NOT LIKELY. THE
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE THREAT OF FG AND JUST HOW DENSE
IT MAY BECOME. SOME AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING DENSE FG CURRENTLY AROUND
KAND AND KPJ...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY OF AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
MODERATE FG. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER AS THE ERN ZONES HAVE RECEIVED A MODEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
IN THE PAST 6 HRS...WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
CLEARER.
THIS AFTERNOON...STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER UPSTATE
TERRAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES INWARD. SCATTERED
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN THE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER CLEARING OCCURS.
SURFACE FRONT STILL ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY NOW PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH A FEW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NE TN. THIS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO DEPICTION ON 15Z HRRR RUN. THE NE TN ACTIVITY
AFFECTS MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THAT DEPICTION WHILE
THE LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT MAKE IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SUPPORTS EARLIER DECISION TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
NRN CWA NEAR THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IN THE FAR EASTERN
CWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED EARLIER AND THERE HAS BEEN MORE TIME TO
DESTABILIZE...PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 J OR SO OF CAPE WHICH
WARRANTED A CHC MENTION THERE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON THE STRATUS
CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SUBSEQUENT
REVISIONS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA.
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AS WINDS WILL
KEEP THE AREA FROM EXPERIENCING PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
LIKELY KEEPING FOG AT BAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AS WELL.
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...GENERALLY
IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HENCE...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED SAT THROUGH SUN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION.
MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER CHILLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR BOTH FRI NIGHT
AND SAT NIGHT WITH GENERALLY MID 30S FOR LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
WIND/CLOUDS FRI NIGHT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST...BUT CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD FROST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO PER A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE QUIET
WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AND
IT THEN HOLDS SWAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THU PER HPC/GFS GUIDANCE...BUT THE 00Z ECM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CASE FROM A BLEND OF THE
MAV...MET AND LAMP WOULD YIELD LOW VFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
WITHER NO COG OR A LOW VFR ONE. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10
KNOTS AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY...WHILE SKY COVER CLEARS OUT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS AND FOG LURKING IN THE AREA.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS...AND FAVOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST WILL
FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
AT MOST SITES BEFORE DAYBREAK. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAWN AS SW WINDS BECOME QUITE GUSTY...HASTENING MIXING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE NW AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 70S FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY WILL COMBINE WITH DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION TO PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FRI AFTN. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PASSING THIS
AFTN/EVENING...FUELS COULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO CREATE HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER IN SOME AREAS FRI AFTN. RAIN CHANCES ARE BEST OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AND ERN PIEDMONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH THU.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT/SBK
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
601 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
.UPDATE...
CURRENT SFC OBS AND CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...SHOWING CLDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
STATE CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS...WITH SOME DECREASE
IN CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
ERODING CLOUD COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO SREF AND RUC 13KM. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CLDY SKIES THRU
THE EVENING HRS...WITH PTCLDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVERAGE ON SAT FOR A TRANSITION TO PTSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID STATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 149 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/
SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH, WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC MUCH OF THE
DAY, STALLED OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60, WHILE SUNNY
SOUTHERN AREAS SAW TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 70 BY 1 PM. THE LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES HAVE, SO FAR, REMAINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
BORDER (UP ACROSS KY).
BELIEVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY, PROVIDING
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A TEMP GRADIENT MUCH LIKE TODAY`S, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S NORTH AND PLATEAU, TO
AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTH.
CLOUDS FINALLY DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
MID STATE AND KEEP OUR DRY WEATHER IN PLACE.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AFTER WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND, ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ON
SOUTHWEST FLOW, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM...LATEST GFS SWEEPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, PREVIOUS ECMWF KEPT TENNESSEE VALLEY MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNLESS NEW ECMWF COMES IN WITH A MORE SOLID TREND TOWARD THE GFS,
WILL PROBABLY KEEP A DRY FORECAST RUNNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
642 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM LATE
TONIGHT. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATED NO FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S...THEREFORE DO THINK SOME FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW LOW THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DROP. SINCE THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATED NO FOG...WILL NOT MENTION
DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG IN A FEW SPOTS. HOPEFULLY NOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION. STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
TRANSITION OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING THE INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME FOG
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS
DENSE FOG AT SOME POINT. STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
FORECAST THE RE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER IN THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVG...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS EVENING.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FEEL THAT PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR VSBYS THAT
WERE IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS FOR MOST OF THE SITES...BUT MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER LOWERING VSBYS WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. WAS CONCERNED
ABOUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT SURVIVED THE DAY OVER MN...BUT
THE RUC MODEL...WHICH WAS HANDLING THESE CLOUDS THE BEST...ONLY
SHOWED THEM MOVING INTO WESTERN WI OVERNIGHT. WILL STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THESE CLOUDS THIS EVENING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REST WITH WHETHER THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT...THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRST...TWO BANDS OF STRATUS AND FOG LINGERED THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH ONE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND A SECOND BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
925/850MB CONVERGENCE ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING HAS ERODED THE EDGES
OF THESE BANDS AND CONVERTED THE STRATUS INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS STRATUS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AGAIN. THE RAP HAS DONE THE BEST WITH SHOWING
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND
900MB THAT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/FOG FIELD ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA APPEARS TO ALSO BE TIED TO THE 925/850MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE 20.12Z NAM/GFS/RAP SLOWLY BRINGS THIS LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVERHEAD AND A SHALLOW INVERSION IN PLACE
IT APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS OR FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT DENSE FOG IN
THE FORECAST...BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE ON UP WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AS
A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT AS A CUT OFF MID LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA GETS CAUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO BRING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM UP ALONG A STALLING OUT COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE GULF OVER THIS PERIOD. BASED ON 20.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR FOR A FEW ISOLATED HAILERS TO FORM AS WELL.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MONTANA
AND HELP TO BRING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PLAINS
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING
ALONG THE FRONT...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT KICKS BACK TO THE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THEM CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
TOMORROW NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
GOING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS
IN THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE 20.12Z ECMWF/GEM IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WITH A QUICKER TREND OF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
COMPARED TO THE 20.12Z GFS WHICH WAITS UNTIL THURSDAY TO BRING IT
THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES IN THERE FOR THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT IF IT STARTS TO TREND TOWARD THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IT MAY END UP DRY THAT DAY.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS WITH NEXT FRIDAY AND WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT AFFECTING THE REGION...THOUGH THE 20.12Z
ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD
PRODUCE A LENGTHY BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF IT COVERING
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ABOVE THE GROUND LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
P-TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
615 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
GOING TO REFORM. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
REMAINS OF THE FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING IS STILL OVER THE
I35 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BUT THE TRENDS ARE THAT THIS
AREA CONTINUES TO SHRINK. THE CONCERN IS THAT THIS SHRINKING TREND
MAY NOT CONTINUE ONCE THE SUN SETS AND COOLING BEGINS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT 925 MB. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTNIUE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE 20.18Z NAM AND
20.21Z RUC BOTH SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT AT 925 MB TIGHTENS UP AND THE
VWP WINDS FROM KOAX ALREADY SHOW A 20 KNOT WINDS AT 925 MB WITH
KDMX AT 10 KNOTS. BELEIVE THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN SHOWING THE
INCREASING WINDS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE TOO MUCH MIXING TO
ALLOW THE CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM. HAVE STARTED TO BACK OUT OF
THE CURRENT FORECASTS BUT HAVE NOT TOTALLY ABANDONDED THE IDEA OF
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS FORMING JUST INCASE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP AND TRAPS THE MOISTURE BEFORE THE WINDS CAN INCREASE AND
MIX IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS AT
KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
254 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
CLOSED LOW AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING IS
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WARMING
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
LATEST LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE MN/IA/WI COMMON BORDER. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF DEEP COLD/CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
SUFFERING AS WELL WITH READINGS AT 2 PM ONLY IN THE 40S.
LATEST NCEP MODELS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF/GEM ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOK OF THE CLOSED LOW TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...MAKING A SLOW PUSH EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK LIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER THE LOW...ALSO EXPECTING SOME LIGHT FOG
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE.
925-850MB LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY WITH COLD/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING. NOT
MUCH RECOVERY EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY EVENING AS LAST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW ROTATES
THROUGH THAT AREA. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MODELS PUSH THE CLOSED LOW MORE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. NAM 925MB RH FIELD
INDICATING PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDING...BUT
THEN DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS TOWARD MORNING.
BELIEVE MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY. IF THERE IS SOME
CLEARING...COULD END UP WITH QUITE A BIT OF FOG WITH COOL/MOIST
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
OVERHEAD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RESPOND NICELY TO SUNSHINE AND
925-850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 5-7C RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S. WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MN. NAM INDICATING 925-850MB LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 14-17C RANGE.
THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER
70S WHICH WOULD BE SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
254 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TIMING ISSUES WITH WAVES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TAKES PLACE WITH THE WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.
BOTH MODELS SHOWING AMPLE AMOUNT OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF
THE GULF AND INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW AND WARM
FRONT. ALSO...MODELS PRODUCING ABOUT 300-600J/KG OF CAPE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS DIVERGE ON
AMOUNT OF CYCLOGENESIS AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOOK A CONSENSUS APPROACH
FOR NOW WHICH YIELDS MID-RANGE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL HOPE FOR BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE MODELS WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK SETTING UP WITH EVEN
THE OUT SIDE CHANCE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE CAPE/SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
1141 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA...WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DO THE SAME WITH THE 19.00Z NAM
CONTINUING TO SHOW A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THESE
WAVES PRODUCE VERY LITTLE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SO
THEY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THE LIFT. AS THE WHOLE
SYSTEM SINKS SLOWLY AWAY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS
WILL THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AS THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE THUS REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY SUSTAINED
LIGHT RAIN AND LIMITED THE VCSH TO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. AREA
OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE INTO KLSE AROUND 06Z. HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THESE
REACHING KRST OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AS THE
TRAJECTORY COULD TAKE THEM SOUTH OF THERE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO NOT
HIGH ON FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND FOG HAS YET TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO REMOVE
THIS IF IT DOES NOT FORM. WILL BE PESSIMISTIC ON SHOWING ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NAM 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS
HIGH WELL INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
254 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
410 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
THE 21.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT WESTERLY JET LOCATED
ACROSS SW OREGON. THIS JET WEAKENED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THEN INCREASED TO AROUND 125 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 500
HPA, A SUBTROPICAL LOW WAS LOCATED SW OF CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROF EXTENDED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 700 AND 850 HPA, A WARM PLUME PREVAILED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE PLAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL 500 HPA LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL BECOME ABSORBED
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS KANSAS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UL FEATURE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY AND SW KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK TO BE VERY WARM
FOR OCTOBER (IN THE LOWER 20 DEG C). THIS COULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND THE HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG DUE TO THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE
WITH TIME AND LACK OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. AN INCREASE IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S DEG
F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO 50S DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
NORTH FROM SCOTT CITY TO HAYS IN THE MID 70S AND WARMER SOUTH FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH. 850MB
TEMPS RISE TO 22 TO 24C. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST FA
FROM SAINT JOHN TO PRATT AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MILD AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TOWARDS
THE COLORADO BORDER TO AROUND 60 EAST FROM SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE
LODGE.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH VERY DRY SURFACE AIR IN THE
WEST. IF WINDS MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MILD AND IN THE 50S.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HAYS TO COLDWATER AND EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT INTRUSION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONLY IN THE 60S.
FOR FRIDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS RE-ESTABLISHING THE COLDER AIRMASS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE EAST FA AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND
WILL COVER WITH A LOW POP. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS LOOK TO
DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THAN THE NEW ECMWF AND HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER
ECMWF. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 5OS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET DOWN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP AND WHERE WINDS CAN GO
LIGHT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT BY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT
THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 47 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 44 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 47 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 48 75 51 / 0 0 10 0
P28 90 55 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
THE 21.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT WESTERLY JET LOCATED
ACROSS SW OREGON. THIS JET WEAKENED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THEN INCREASED TO AROUND 125 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 500
HPA, A SUBTROPICAL LOW WAS LOCATED SW OF CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROF EXTENDED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 700 AND 850 HPA, A WARM PLUME PREVAILED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE PLAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL 500 HPA LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL BECOME ABSORBED
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS KANSAS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UL FEATURE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY AND SW KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK TO BE VERY WARM
FOR OCTOBER (IN THE LOWER 20 DEG C). THIS COULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND THE HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG DUE TO THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE
WITH TIME AND LACK OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. AN INCREASE IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S DEG
F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO 50S DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTREME NORTHERN TEXAS, OKLAHOMA,
AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, A SURFACE LOW PROJECTED GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA,
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE BULK OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COMBINED WITH A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT, THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY WITH ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT STAYING JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD JUST INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS(C) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW WORKING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE
MOST PART WITH LOWER 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO LIFT THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE DAY. THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES BACK UP
INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 80S(F) ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NEAR 90F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A COOLING TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPING TO USHER
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS SOMETIME
DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT BY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT
THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 47 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 44 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 47 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 47 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 48 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
P28 90 55 81 58 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1046 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELD
FOR THE CURRENT PERIOD. THIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED VARIABLE
WIND FIELD TONIGHT MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED MIN FORECAST. THERE WAS
A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS LAST NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE RUC AND NAM
FOR THE WINDS. SHOULD GET WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN COLD FRONT START MOVING
THROUGH. EXPECT ONCE AGAIN WHERE THE TROUGH LINE IS WILL BE WHERE
COOLEST MINS SHOULD BE BUT DO EXPECT A WIDE RANGE ONCE AGAIN BUT A
LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFERING ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH DOES
NOT LOOK TOO STRONG. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO SLOW THIS DOWN AND
LOOKS TO NOT BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF MAX
HEATING TIME. THERE IS A 5 TO NEARLY 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN MAXES.
USING A CLUSTER OF THE BEST RECENT PERFORMING GUIDANCE...2 METER
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIASES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER MAXES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A BIG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
CORNER TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE
NAM/SREF SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA AROUND 850 TO 880MB. HOWEVER IT IS VERY SHALLOW SO WILL
ONLY HAVE SILENT CHANCES IN FOR THOSE PERIODS FOR THE FAR EAST.
OTHERWISE AM NOT EXPECTING AN PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN DRY. THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW ONCE IT MOVES ON SHORE. THE
GFS/DGEX/UKMET/GEM DIVE THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH AT VARYING SPEEDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH KICK OUT OF
THE CLOSED LOW BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE...KEEPING BOTH FURTHER NORTH
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE...EITHER THE LEFT EXIT
OR RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 500MB JET OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONSENSUS HAS PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. ON A
SIDE NOTE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE...GIVING MORE WEIGHT
TO THE NOTION OF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO
BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2012
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT FRONT TO REACH KMCK/KGLD AROUND 14Z. UNTIL THEN...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-15 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND POSSIBLY GUST
TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
442 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...OVER VIRGINIA...WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE TODAY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY. THEN A WARM FRONT...MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO...MAY
BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL EXIT.
WILL FIRST CONCENTRATE ON THE WANING OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
YESTERDAY`S MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT NW FLOW WOULD HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL DATA IS SHOWING A
QUICKER CHANGE TO THE FLOW...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY... THE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE NORTH
BY LATE MORNING WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN CLOUD DISSIPATION. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...TO PROVIDE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE...PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH...TO ALLOW SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES TO SEE LESS
CLOUDS AND HENCE MORE SUN EARLIER.
LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING CLOUDS DISSIPATING FASTER.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE
LAYER DRYING OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL THINK THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH PER RECENT
SURFACE DATA.
SUNSHINE WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
THAN OVER THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF...BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. RIDGE WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD MONDAY...AS WILL THE HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING FOR A
WARMER FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF
MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH IN
ZONAL FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE WAVES.
EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS...
TUESDAY`S TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- VERY WARM WEATHER WED - FRI WITH TEMPS NEARLY 10F ABOVE NORMAL
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
- LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
COMBINATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AT MID LEVELS AND SSW SURFACE FLOW
CORRELATES TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER MID
WEEK. H8 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 13 TO 16C RANGE WED AND THUR. RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH OF OCT ARE IN THE LOWER 80S...SO DO NOT
FORESEE ANY BENCHMARKS BEING TAKEN DOWN. WITH ATMOSPHERE STAYING
WELL MIXED...INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE INHERITED GRIDDED DATASET
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE
HIGHEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS THE REMINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH DISCREPANCIES
OF WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FROPA THUR NGT
INTO FRI MORNING THEN A BREAK BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES SAT NGT. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS KEEPS FRONT AT BAY
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUFFICIENT STEERING WINDS EXIST PERMITTING AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH OF PA. MODEL PREFERENCE WAS ECMWF AND CMC
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SWATH OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU THAT FORMED UNDER THE CROSSING UPR
LOW PRES LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NGT GIVEN THE WWD AND SWD
EXTENT OF THE BLANKET. THOSE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A PRES GRADIENT
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME SFC WND...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION
OVRNGT AT KPIT AND PORTS NORTH.
SO OVERALL...TAFS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT...KZZV WILL
HAVE PERIODS OF IFR FOG THROUGH 12Z...KFKL AND KDUJ CAN HAVE
PERIODS OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS THROUGH 14Z.
OVERALL...THE TAFS FEATURE A VFR FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR A PRE-DAWN
MVFR MENTION AT THE AIRPORTS DISCUSSED ABOVE. REGARDLESS...GENL
VFR WL RTN FOR ALL AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS ON SUNDAY PROGRESSES.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TRACK OF THE NEXT
LOW PRES SYS AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
329 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW CIRCULATING
OVER QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS SENDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL BE
THE TREND THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. SEVERAL JET STREAKS WERE
EVIDENT MOVING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH...AIDING
THE LIFT/PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOST CONCENTRATED BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
GARRISON...AND BETWEEN JAMESTOWN AND RUGBY. THE RUC CONTINUES TO
HANDLE THE CURRENT PICTURE WELL AND HAVE FOLLOWED IT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH THE PRECIPITATION WANING AS IT EXITS THE
RUGBY/HARVEY AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
DRY DAY BUT MUCH COOLER AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER
00Z MONDAY WITH GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE WEST...SPREADING NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
NORTH CENTRAL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN AREA/POCKET OF SUBFREEZING
H85 AIR MATERIALIZES. FOR MONDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW
FAR EAST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPANDS...WITH THE NAM AND SREF
KEEPING MOST OF THE QPF IN THE WEST...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WEST AND ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION.
HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND WITH A CHC OF POPS WEST TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHC EAST.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY/SATURDAY...H85 TEMPS RANGED FROM
+10C NORTH TO +14C SOUTH. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...H85 TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +2C NORTH TO +6C SOUTH. THUS MUCH COOLER TODAY
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 30 NORTH TO 40 FAR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TYPES. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH EVOLUTION OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE WEST. GFS CUTS OFF DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
NEAR NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE. BOTH MODELS DEEPEN UPPER LOW BY LATE WEEK AND TAKE IT
TOWARD HUDSON BAY LEAVING OUR REGION IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. EVEN
WITH DIFFERENCES IN THESE FEATURES...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. TUESDAY WILL BE LAST
MILD DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BY 00Z
FRI...850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND -6C SOUTH TO -8C NORTH AND
DECREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BY FRI AND SAT.
CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS BY FRI AND SAT TO ONLY BE IN THE
30S F. BEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HARD TO RULE OUT PRECIP IN
ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BUT MODELS
INDICATE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF AREA
CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE... TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL SUPPORT RAIN PRECIP TYPE
DURING THE DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN SUPPORT SNOW DAY/NIGHT BY LATE
WEEK WHEN COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...PRECIP PROBABILITIES
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD...IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS OF 08Z SUNDAY. DESPITE SHOWERS...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHWESTERN ND SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REST WITH WHETHER THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT...THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRST...TWO BANDS OF STRATUS AND FOG LINGERED THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH ONE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND A SECOND BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
925/850MB CONVERGENCE ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING HAS ERODED THE EDGES
OF THESE BANDS AND CONVERTED THE STRATUS INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS STRATUS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AGAIN. THE RAP HAS DONE THE BEST WITH SHOWING
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND
900MB THAT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/FOG FIELD ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA APPEARS TO ALSO BE TIED TO THE 925/850MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE 20.12Z NAM/GFS/RAP SLOWLY BRINGS THIS LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVERHEAD AND A SHALLOW INVERSION IN PLACE
IT APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS OR FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT DENSE FOG IN
THE FORECAST...BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE ON UP WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AS
A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT AS A CUT OFF MID LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA GETS CAUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO BRING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM UP ALONG A STALLING OUT COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE GULF OVER THIS PERIOD. BASED ON 20.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR FOR A FEW ISOLATED HAILERS TO FORM AS WELL.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MONTANA
AND HELP TO BRING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PLAINS
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING
ALONG THE FRONT...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT KICKS BACK TO THE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THEM CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
TOMORROW NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
GOING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS
IN THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE 20.12Z ECMWF/GEM IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WITH A QUICKER TREND OF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
COMPARED TO THE 20.12Z GFS WHICH WAITS UNTIL THURSDAY TO BRING IT
THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES IN THERE FOR THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT IF IT STARTS TO TREND TOWARD THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IT MAY END UP DRY THAT DAY.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS WITH NEXT FRIDAY AND WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT AFFECTING THE REGION...THOUGH THE 20.12Z
ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD
PRODUCE A LENGTHY BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF IT COVERING
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ABOVE THE GROUND LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
P-TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
LOW CLOUDS ARE NO LONGER A CONCERN AS THE PATCH OF CLOUDS IN THE
I35 CORRIDOR HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT BUT IF IT DOES FORM...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTER A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE TIMED THESE
CLOUDS PAST THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z SO WOULD EXPECT ANY
FOG THAT FORMS TO WAIT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THESE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT. THEN THERE IS STILL THE ISSUE OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
IF THESE WILL CREATE TOO MUCH TURBULENT MIXING AT THE INVERSION
LEVEL TO ALLOW THE FOG TO FORM. THE 21.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM ABOUT 950 MB AND ABOVE. LATEST VWP WINDS
FROM KDMX AND KMPX CONTINUE TO VERIFY THESE WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF
15 AND 20 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY AT 950 MB SO WILL LIMIT ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM FOG TO 4 MILES AT KLSE AND 2 MILES AT
KRST. ONCE THE FOG THREAT IS OVER SUNDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME GUSTS AT KRST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN
BUT THIS WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
942 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.UPDATE...
A VERY PLEASANT MORNING IS SHAPING UP FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES IS THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE KEEPING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DRY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND ARE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. ADDED A SMALL POCKET OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LATEST HRRR KEEPS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT
DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE E CST IS ALREADY TRYING TO SHIFT TO THE NNE
SO THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS MIGHT SEE THIS SHIFT AROUND 13Z. FLOW
IS NOT NECESSARILY STRONG SO SEA BREEZE AT KAPF IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, NONE OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS TO OCCUR SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THERE COULD BE A SHORT-LIVED SEA BREEZE
AROUND 19-22Z. /KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012/
EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES WEDNESDAY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EAST
-WARD TO THE ATLC COAST BY SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES NE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO MOVE
NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE ATLC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER S FLA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY BECOME WINDY EASTERN
ZONES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. POPS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW BECOMES NE TODAY AND INCREASES TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS ATLC/GULF WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH PERSISTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH CAUTION
CRITERIA EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FROM MIDWEEK ON. HAVE TAPERED ATLC WINDS DOWNWARD FROM GFS
GUIDANCE A BIT AS EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOT ETCHED
IN STONE AS OF YET.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTY. AS WINDS
SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE TODAY AND INTO THE WEEK...THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY RISE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
ONSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 84 74 / - 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 72 85 77 / - - 10 10
MIAMI 85 72 86 75 / - - 10 10
NAPLES 87 65 88 69 / - 0 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
256 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
OVER ILLINOIS...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE EXTENT OF
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS WELL AS TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS
WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB NOTED ON EVENING UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5C AT LINCOLN AND
DAVENPORT TO THE MID TEENS IN WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING TEMPS OF 10C ALREADY MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA AS PROGGED BY THE 00Z NAM...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREE RISE IS EXPECTED
BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKELY TO REACH THE 70-75
RANGE TODAY...WARMEST WEST...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE
RANGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. EVENING MODEL SUITE KEEPS
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT AN
UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH BEST SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WEST OF I-55 LATE TONIGHT AND OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT DATA SHOWING
ELEVATED CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG BY LATE TONIGHT...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PER LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS IS ONLY AROUND 5
PERCENT. AFTER THAT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS BECOMES MORE APPARENTLY BY MIDWEEK...
WITH REGARD TO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS IS FASTEST IN CUTTING
OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...
WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WAIT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER MINNESOTA. THIS RESULTS IN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
STARTING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL CHANCES WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND THE RAIN THREAT PASSED...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY OF SOME OF THE MODELS HAS NOT BEEN IDEAL
THE LAST FEW RUNS.
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY WILL HELP DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDED
RAIN CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WILL LIKELY SEE 70S CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE SLOWER TREND IN THE FRONT. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -7C...SO THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/3
AM WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT DEC AND CMI WHERE SSE
WINDS STAY LIGHTER LONGER TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
(WITH CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF ABOUT 4F AND DOWN TO 2F AT
DEC) TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT UNTIL 14Z/9 AM
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH RETURN SSE WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS
DURING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT AND DENSENESS OF FOG. NAM
HITS THE FOG HARDEST LATER TONIGHT WHILE GFS AND HRRR MODELS OUT
TO 12Z/7 AM IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD WITH THE FOG (HRRR VSBY MAINLY
5-6 MILES). MOST MODELS LIFT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BY 14Z/9 AM
SUNDAY. FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT TO SPREAD NE FROM MO
ACROSS CENTRAL IL BETWEEN 02Z-04Z SUNDAY EVENING PER GFS AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (REACHING SPI FIRST AND CMI LAST). WEAK 1017 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS TO DRIFT EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING SSE
FLOW OVER CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT SSE WINDS OF 10-14 KTS AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY AND
GUSTS 15-19 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS KEEP CENTRAL IL DRY
THROUGH 06Z/1 AM MON WITH WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL DURING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT... JUST BEYOND THIS 24
HOUR TAF FORECAST.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TONIGHT AND JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES DONE.
STILL HAVE A NARROW BAND OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 3-4K
FOOT BASES SE OF DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN TO THE WABASH RIVER. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AT IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NE INTO
EAST CENTRAL IL. KEEPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY...AND ALSO ADDING AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE SSE WINDS STAY LIGHTER LONGER DURING
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S LOOK ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SSE WINDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
TN AND AL AND RIDGING INTO NE IL AND WI AT MID EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS IL EXCEPT FOR THAT NARROW
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS SE OF DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN. HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPLACHIANS BY DAWN SUNDAY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO IL.
LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING TO BECOME SSE 5-10 MPH BY DAWN SUNDAY AND
BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN IL WHICH WILL KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AS
MUCH. EASTERN IL WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST FOG DEVELOP AFTER 2 AM
AND DISSIPATE BY 9 AM SUNDAY. DID NOT MENTION DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME DUE TO SSE WINDS INCREASING A BIT LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOWS BY DAYBREAK AND COOLEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/3
AM WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT DEC AND CMI WHERE SSE
WINDS STAY LIGHTER LONGER TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
(WITH CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF ABOUT 4F AND DOWN TO 2F AT
DEC) TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT UNTIL 14Z/9 AM
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH RETURN SSE WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS
DURING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT AND DENSENESS OF FOG. NAM
HITS THE FOG HARDEST LATER TONIGHT WHILE GFS AND HRRR MODELS OUT
TO 12Z/7 AM IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD WITH THE FOG (HRRR VSBY MAINLY
5-6 MILES). MOST MODELS LIFT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BY 14Z/9 AM
SUNDAY. FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT TO SPREAD NE FROM MO
ACROSS CENTRAL IL BETWEEN 02Z-04Z SUNDAY EVENING PER GFS AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (REACHING SPI FIRST AND CMI LAST). WEAK 1017 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS TO DRIFT EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING SSE
FLOW OVER CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT SSE WINDS OF 10-14 KTS AFTER 15Z/10 AM SUNDAY AND
GUSTS 15-19 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS KEEP CENTRAL IL DRY
THROUGH 06Z/1 AM MON WITH WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL DURING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT... JUST BEYOND THIS 24
HOUR TAF FORECAST.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
INITIAL CONCERNS WILL BE FOR FOG TO FORM TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE DRAMATIC WARM-UP
AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. AN AIRMASS CHANGE BACK TO COOLER
WEATHER WILL BEGIN WITH A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...STARTING A PERIOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...DUE TO MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. THE MOST CLEARING
HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF I-74...WHERE CLEARING LAST NIGHT ALLOWED FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM.
WE EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING BY EVENING THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE WET-BULB TEMPS OVERNIGHT. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY FORM. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
STRATUS/FOG FORMING ALREADY DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL BE ADDING
FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SOME
OF THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9AM ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CRANK UP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THAT MAY
KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN FULL SUN...BUT WE STILL EXPECT
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM MID 70S IN THE SW TO AROUND 70 IN THE NE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP OUR
COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL LATE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND GFS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE POPS.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS INTO IOWA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY...KEEPING OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND FIRMLY IN THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE PULLED POPS BACK TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ON TUESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY...HELPING OUR AREA REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE. 850 MB
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 16-17C RANGE. ADIABATIC WARMING SHOULD
PUSH HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR 80 AROUND JACKSONVILLE...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S COMMON.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN BY 12 HOURS...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF DELAYED IT BY 6 HOURS. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF
I-55 IN THE AFTERNOON. WE KEPT THE ALL-BLEND POPS FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS WHICH ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...TRENDS
MAY BE FOR MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY. IF THAT
HAPPENS...OUR CURRENT HIGHS WILL BE A BIT TOO LOW...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE LATEST MODELS IS THAT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SLOWER
SCENARIO WOULD KEEP RAIN IN OUR FORECAST THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL IN
AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF BY 3-4C. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...KEEPING WARM AIR SHUNTED TO THE WEST OF ILLINOIS.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
609 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
THE 21.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT WESTERLY JET LOCATED
ACROSS SW OREGON. THIS JET WEAKENED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THEN INCREASED TO AROUND 125 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 500
HPA, A SUBTROPICAL LOW WAS LOCATED SW OF CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROF EXTENDED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 700 AND 850 HPA, A WARM PLUME PREVAILED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE PLAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL 500 HPA LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL BECOME ABSORBED
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS KANSAS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UL FEATURE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY AND SW KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK TO BE VERY WARM
FOR OCTOBER (IN THE LOWER 20 DEG C). THIS COULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND THE HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG DUE TO THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE
WITH TIME AND LACK OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. AN INCREASE IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S DEG
F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO 50S DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
NORTH FROM SCOTT CITY TO HAYS IN THE MID 70S AND WARMER SOUTH FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH. 850MB
TEMPS RISE TO 22 TO 24C. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST FA
FROM SAINT JOHN TO PRATT AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MILD AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TOWARDS
THE COLORADO BORDER TO AROUND 60 EAST FROM SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE
LODGE.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH VERY DRY SURFACE AIR IN THE
WEST. IF WINDS MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MILD AND IN THE 50S.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HAYS TO COLDWATER AND EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT INTRUSION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONLY IN THE 60S.
FOR FRIDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS RE-ESTABLISHING THE COLDER AIRMASS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE EAST FA AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND
WILL COVER WITH A LOW POP. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS LOOK TO
DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THAN THE NEW ECMWF AND HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER
ECMWF. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 5OS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET DOWN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP AND WHERE WINDS CAN GO
LIGHT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR ANY
CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHIFTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10KT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY 21Z COULD LEAD TO 10-20KT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 47 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 44 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 47 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 48 75 51 / 0 0 10 0
P28 90 55 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1114 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN SKY COVERAGE AND TO ADD RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW IN
QUEBEC CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM AREA. ON THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH...CENTERED NEAR
HUNTINGTON...WEST VIRGINIA...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS TO FILTER ACROSS LOCATIONS PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF
A FRANKLIN-INDIANA LINE WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
RIDGES. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND
BRING A DRY AND WARMER DAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AN INITIAL
NORTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL INDUCE DIURNAL
CUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE
ZONAL TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ALSO AS MOISTURE ADVECTS EASTWARD. HIGH
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAMP GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO NEAR 60 IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
WV.
TONIGHT...A 500MB RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE SETUP WILL BE SUITABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.
WITH COOLER AIR OVER WARMER RIVERS...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WILL SETUP
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS NEAR DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY CAN BE NEARLY 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL PER CONSENSUS OF RECENT GFS NAM AND
ECMWF MOS.
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...INDUCING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO
AND LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH POINTS NORTH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS...LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT CAN BE 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE TUESDAY`S
HIGHS CAN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- VERY WARM WEATHER WED - FRI WITH TEMPS NEARLY 10F ABOVE NORMAL
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
- LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
COMBINATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AT MID LEVELS AND SSW SURFACE FLOW
CORRELATES TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER MID
WEEK. H8 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 13 TO 16C RANGE WED AND THUR. RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH OF OCT ARE IN THE LOWER 80S...SO DO NOT
FORESEE ANY BENCHMARKS BEING TAKEN DOWN. WITH ATMOSPHERE STAYING
WELL MIXED...INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA SET
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE
HIGHEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS THE REMINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH DISCREPANCIES
OF WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FROPA THUR NGT
INTO FRI MORNING THEN A BREAK BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES SAT NGT. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS KEEPS FRONT AT BAY
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUFFICIENT STEERING WINDS EXIST PERMITTING AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH OF PA. MODEL PREFERENCE WAS ECMWF AND CMC
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KDUJ/KFKL TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. AT KDUJ/KFKL...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 22Z. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL VFR CUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM.
RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR DAWN ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE RIVER VALLEY TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...WOODRUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
148 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AFTER OOZ WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH EAST COAST TERMINALS
WINDS AROUND 14-15 KNOTS AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS TO 20-22 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. FOR TERMINAL KAPF NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS SHOULD
PREVAIL THEN INCREASING TO ABOUT 14 KNOTS BY 15Z MONDAY. EAST
COAST TERMINALS COULD HAVE PERIODS OF CEILINGS FROM 4 TO 6 KFT AS
STRATOCUMULUS STREAM IN FROM ATLANTIC WATERS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012/
UPDATE...
A VERY PLEASANT MORNING IS SHAPING UP FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES IS THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE KEEPING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DRY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND ARE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. ADDED A SMALL POCKET OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LATEST HRRR KEEPS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT
DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE E CST IS ALREADY TRYING TO SHIFT TO THE NNE
SO THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS MIGHT SEE THIS SHIFT AROUND 13Z. FLOW
IS NOT NECESSARILY STRONG SO SEA BREEZE AT KAPF IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, NONE OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS TO OCCUR SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THERE COULD BE A SHORT-LIVED SEA BREEZE
AROUND 19-22Z. /KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012/
EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES WEDNESDAY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EAST
-WARD TO THE ATLC COAST BY SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES NE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO MOVE
NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE ATLC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER S FLA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY BECOME WINDY EASTERN
ZONES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. POPS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW BECOMES NE TODAY AND INCREASES TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS ATLC/GULF WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH PERSISTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH CAUTION
CRITERIA EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FROM MIDWEEK ON. HAVE TAPERED ATLC WINDS DOWNWARD FROM GFS
GUIDANCE A BIT AS EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOT ETCHED
IN STONE AS OF YET.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTY. AS WINDS
SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE TODAY AND INTO THE WEEK...THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY RISE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
ONSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 84 74 84 / 0 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 85 77 86 / - 10 10 20
MIAMI 72 86 75 86 / - 10 10 20
NAPLES 65 88 69 88 / 0 - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOT OF IT WILL DEPEND ON WHEN
STRATUS FORMS TONIGHT...THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND WHEN IT WILL
BURN OFF TOMORROW. THIS IS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND/PRESSURE
FIELD. IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SAY STRATUS WILL FORM BUT DIFFER
ON THE TIMING. FOR THE STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THE RUC FOLLOWED BY
THE GFS DID THE BEST. THE NAM WAS A LITTLE QUICK IN DISSIPATING
THE MOISTURE.
IF GO BY THE RUC...STRATUS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST
WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEAR 06Z WITH THE NAM BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z. AM LEANING TOWARD THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY FOG TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THAT AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE WILL DETERMINE
THE MINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WRONG THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. HOW
FAST THE STRATUS BURNS OFF WILL BE THE BIG FACTOR ON MAXES MONDAY. THE
WIND FIELD ENDS UP LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT UPSLOPE. BELIEVE THE
MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE WITH NO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED
LOW FILLS AS ANOTHER DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN BEHIND IT. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP FROM MCCOOK
SOUTHEAST TO HILL CITY. THE DRIER AIR AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THIS FEATURE A SHORT
TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET MOVE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND JET
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES.
AGAIN THE CHANCES LINGER INTO THE FOLLOWING DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE NEARING THE 0C LINE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT DISAGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. AT
THIS POINT WILL ONLY PLACE A RAIN/SHOW MIX IN THE FORECAST AND WAIT
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE NEARER TERM BEFORE DETERMINING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR/ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A WARMER AIR MASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WHERE AND WHEN STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW IT THEY DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO DO IT. AM THINKING
EARLIER RATHER LATER WHICH FAVORS THE RUC...WHICH WAS HANDLING THE
CURRENT WIND/STRATUS WELL RIGHT NOW...AND THE GFS. FOR KMCK CHOSE
TO ONLY INTRODUCE A SCT LOW DECK BEGINNING AT 02Z AND BRING IN THE
MVFR CEILINGS AT 07Z. HOWEVER THAT COULD BE TOO LATE AND BROUGHT
IN A LITTLE BEFORE 06Z. FOR KGLD IT DOES LOOK A LITTLE LATER. IFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP NEAR 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
TUESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND WIND GUSTS WILL NEAR 30 MPH FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO COLBY AND RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE. CURRENTLY THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MEET CRITERIA ARE
TOO SHORT TO WARRENT A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT CONDITIONS WILL CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
HERE ARE THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR LOCATIONS
THAT WILL NEAR THEM ON TUESDAY.
LOCATION RECORD YEAR SET/TIED
GOODLAND 88 2003
HILL CITY 86 1975
BURLINGTON 87 2003
TRIBUNE 88
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
CLIMATE...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOT OF IT WILL DEPEND ON WHEN
STRATUS FORMS TONIGHT...THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND WHEN IT WILL
BURN OFF TOMORROW. THIS IS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND/PRESSURE
FIELD. IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SAY STRATUS WILL FORM BUT DIFFER
ON THE TIMING. FOR THE STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THE RUC FOLLOWED BY
THE GFS DID THE BEST. THE NAM WAS A LITTLE QUICK IN DISSIPATING
THE MOISTURE.
IF GO BY THE RUC...STRATUS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST
WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEAR 06Z WITH THE NAM BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z. AM LEANING TOWARD THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY FOG TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THAT AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE WILL DETERMINE
THE MINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WRONG THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. HOW
FAST THE STRATUS BURNS OFF WILL BE THE BIG FACTOR ON MAXES MONDAY. THE
WIND FIELD ENDS UP LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT UPSLOPE. BELIEVE THE
MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE WITH NO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
THE GFS/EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GEM ARE STARTING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT REGIME OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD TROUGH WED-SAT. SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE WED-WED
NIGHT AND ANOTHER THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY USHERING IN THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL SURGES OF CANADIAN AIR. GFS/EC/GEM ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW 0C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE A WETTER SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD IN
CONTRAST TO THE EC. AFTER COLLABORATION...CURRENT FCST IS LEANING
TOWARD THE DRIER EC SOLUTION. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS FOR FRIDAY HAVE
MENTIONED A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR PRECIP TYPE...COULD END UP BEING
ALL LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WHERE AND WHEN STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW IT THEY DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO DO IT. AM THINKING
EARLIER RATHER LATER WHICH FAVORS THE RUC...WHICH WAS HANDLING THE
CURRENT WIND/STRATUS WELL RIGHT NOW...AND THE GFS. FOR KMCK CHOSE
TO ONLY INTRODUCE A SCT LOW DECK BEGINNING AT 02Z AND BRING IN THE
MVFR CEILINGS AT 07Z. HOWEVER THAT COULD BE TOO LATE AND BROUGHT
IN A LITTLE BEFORE 06Z. FOR KGLD IT DOES LOOK A LITTLE LATER. IFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP NEAR 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
THE 250MB UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 21/12Z SHOWED A WEST TO EAST
JET FROM THE COAST OF OREGON EAST THROUGH MONTANA AND THEN CURVING
SOUTHEAST TO WESTERN KENTUCKY. JETLET SPEEDS WERE IN THE 130-140KT
RANGE ACROSS IDAHO AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, AND IN THE 110KT
RANGE OVER INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY JET IN THE
100 TO 120 KNOT RANGE WAS JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NORTHWARD
INTO TO NOVA SCOTIA, CANADA. THE 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN STATES, WITH AN
OPEN WAVE DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE BAJA COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN ONTARIO HAD A TRAILING TROUGH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK EXTENDING TO OFF THE
EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE 700MB PRESSURE PATTERN WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 500MB LEVEL, BUT WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
COLORADO AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THE TEMPERATURE AND WINDS AT DDC AT
H7 WERE +12C AND 18015KT. THE 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHERN
UTAH. A GOOD SWATH OF 850MB MOISTURE WAS FLOWING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. DDC`S 850MB TEMP WAS +21C
AND THE WINDS WERE 19015KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL 500 HPA LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL BECOME ABSORBED
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS KANSAS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UL FEATURE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY AND SW KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK TO BE VERY WARM
FOR OCTOBER (IN THE LOWER 20 DEG C). THIS COULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND THE HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG DUE TO THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE
WITH TIME AND LACK OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. AN INCREASE IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S DEG
F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO 50S DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
NORTH FROM SCOTT CITY TO HAYS IN THE MID 70S AND WARMER SOUTH FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH. 850MB
TEMPS RISE TO 22 TO 24C. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST FA
FROM SAINT JOHN TO PRATT AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MILD AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TOWARDS
THE COLORADO BORDER TO AROUND 60 EAST FROM SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE
LODGE.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH VERY DRY SURFACE AIR IN THE
WEST. IF WINDS MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MILD AND IN THE 50S.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HAYS TO COLDWATER AND EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT INTRUSION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONLY IN THE 60S.
FOR FRIDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS RE-ESTABLISHING THE COLDER AIRMASS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE EAST FA AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND
WILL COVER WITH A LOW POP. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS LOOK TO
DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THAN THE NEW ECMWF AND HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER
ECMWF. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 5OS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET DOWN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP AND WHERE WINDS CAN GO
LIGHT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
THIS AFTERNOON WILL START WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS, AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE BKN OVER THE HYS TAF SITE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON, IN THE 18,000 FT RANGE. THOSE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 20Z, AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 08G16KT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES, ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT, SHIFTING AT HYS AROUND 06Z, AT GCK AROUND
07Z AND AT DDC BY 09Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 34010-12KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 46 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 43 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 46 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 47 75 51 / 0 0 10 0
P28 90 54 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012
THE 21.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT WESTERLY JET LOCATED
ACROSS SW OREGON. THIS JET WEAKENED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THEN INCREASED TO AROUND 125 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 500
HPA, A SUBTROPICAL LOW WAS LOCATED SW OF CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROF EXTENDED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 700 AND 850 HPA, A WARM PLUME PREVAILED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE PLAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL 500 HPA LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL BECOME ABSORBED
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS KANSAS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UL FEATURE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY AND SW KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK TO BE VERY WARM
FOR OCTOBER (IN THE LOWER 20 DEG C). THIS COULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND THE HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG DUE TO THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE
WITH TIME AND LACK OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. AN INCREASE IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S DEG
F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO 50S DEG F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
NORTH FROM SCOTT CITY TO HAYS IN THE MID 70S AND WARMER SOUTH FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH. 850MB
TEMPS RISE TO 22 TO 24C. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST FA
FROM SAINT JOHN TO PRATT AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MILD AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TOWARDS
THE COLORADO BORDER TO AROUND 60 EAST FROM SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE
LODGE.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH VERY DRY SURFACE AIR IN THE
WEST. IF WINDS MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MILD AND IN THE 50S.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HAYS TO COLDWATER AND EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT INTRUSION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONLY IN THE 60S.
FOR FRIDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS RE-ESTABLISHING THE COLDER AIRMASS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE EAST FA AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND
WILL COVER WITH A LOW POP. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS LOOK TO
DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THAN THE NEW ECMWF AND HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER
ECMWF. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 5OS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET DOWN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP AND WHERE WINDS CAN GO
LIGHT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
THIS AFTERNOON WILL START WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS, AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE BKN OVER THE HYS TAF SITE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON, IN THE 18,000 FT RANGE. THOSE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 20Z, AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 08G16KT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES, ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT, SHIFTING AT HYS AROUND 06Z, AT GCK AROUND
07Z AND AT DDC BY 09Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 34010-12KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 47 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 44 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 47 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 48 75 51 / 0 0 10 0
P28 90 55 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
529 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS USING THE DOWNSCALED NAM WHICH IS
ALIGNING WELL W/THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE CWA. SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED AS WELL TO INCREASE THE
PERCENTAGES TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD INTO THE EVENING USING THE HRRR WHICH
SHOWED THE COOLING TREND NICELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE
MARITIMES MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS MONDAY. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM12...GFS40...SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZE THE POP GRIDS THEN
HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MODEL COMBINATION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF THIS PERIOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF GMOS
AND NAM12. TRANSITION TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO
GRIDS GENERATED WITH GMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF COLD ADVCN SC ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA
SHOULD CLR AWAY OVRNGT MON AS THE UPPER TROF CONTS TO MOVE E THRU
THE MARITIMES...ALLOWING FOR FOR BLO FZG LOW TEMPS. TUE SHOULD BE
FAIR AND COOL WITH INCREASING HI CLDNSS OVR WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE
FA AS A WEAK S/WV BRINGS SOME OVRNG PRECIP TO CNTRL AND SRN NEW
ENG. CLDNSS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REACH ITS NRN MOST EXTENT OVR
OUR FA TUE EVE AND OVR NGT AS THE SFC WV MOVES ESE OFF SE NEW ENG.
HI/MID CLDNSS THEN DIMINISHES N TO S ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE NGT
INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES RIDGE FROM CNTRL CAN STRENGTHENS OVR THE
FA WITH CONTD SEASONABLY COOL HI TEMPS AND THEN CHILLY OVRNGT
LOWS WED NGT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DIRECTLY
UNDER THE SFC HI.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU BEGINS SUNNY ACROSS THE FA...THEN SOME INCREASE IN HI/MID
CLDNSS FROM QB MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT FROM THE
ERN GREAT LKS APCHS. HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
SHWRS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD CLIP NW PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT AS
THE WARM FRONT TRAVERSES W TO E ACROSS THE FA BY 12Z FRI. WITH CLDNSS
AND MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...OVRNGT LOWS
SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER.
FRI SHOULD BE FAIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH HI/MID CLDNSS AT
TMS ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA. HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL IN THE
50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC THEN MOVES INTO THE FA FRI NGT WITH SOME
CLDNSS AND A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. AFTWRDS...THIS FRONT WILL BACK
N OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT SAT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS
THEN SHWRS. A DEEPENING UPPER TROF FROM THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH A
STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN BRINGS THE NEXT CHC OF
SHWRS TO THE FA BEGINNING LATE SAT NGT ACROSS WRN AREAS AND
SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE REGION ON SUN. TEMPS WILL CONT MILD
TO WARM...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO GREATER
CLD CVR AND/OR SHWRS AND INCREASING SRLY COMPONENT OF WINDS
BRINGING COOLER MARINE AIR OFF THE GULF OF ME/N ATLC.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WIND GRIDS.
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVES 6-7
FEET/9-11 SECONDS WHICH WAS GENERATED IN SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FEET BY
1200Z MONDAY...HOWEVER LOCAL WEST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE IN OFF-SHORE
GRADIENT. THE SCA WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT IN PLACE. NEW SWAN/NAM
NOT AVAILABLE..WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SWAN WHICH IS IN LINE WITH LATEST
WNA TO MAINTAIN RESOLUTION CLOSE TO COAST.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT INTO TUE
MORN...THEN DIMINISHING TO WELL BLO SCA THRESHOLDS LATER TUE THRU
FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
403 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW IN
QUEBEC CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH...CENTERED NEAR
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS PROVIDING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO ALLOW BROKEN CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
AND BRING A DRY AND WARMER DAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 850MB
FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE ZONAL...WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ALSO AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAMP GUIDANCE...RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO NEAR 60 IN EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
TONIGHT...A 500MB RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...AND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SETUP WILL BE SUITABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.
WITH COOLER AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARMER RIVERS...SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG WILL SET UP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS NEAR DAWN.
GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS ON MONDAY WITH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLY ON
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE 1-2
DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHWRS XPCD TO FORM MON NGT ALONG DIFFUSE WMFNT IN WARM AIR ADVCTN
PATTERN...PSBLY ENHANCED TUE-TUE NGT BY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF.
QPF NOT XPCD TO BE SGFNT. PCPN GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP...WITH
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN IN NRN ZONES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BNDRY.
RDG AT H5 WILL AMPLIFY WED OVER THE RGN...LEADING TO DECRG PCPN
CHCS. SLY LOW-LVL JET FROM MS RVR VLY WILL SPREAD OVER THE RGN AND
WILL ADVCT EWD TEMPS OF 18-19C AT H9...LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM AMS BY MID-WK. MAXIMA IN UPR 70S-NR 80 PSBL AS THE WK
PROGRESSES AND CLD CVR DECRS IN CVRG. /KRAMAR/
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RDG BUILDS EWD WED NGT AS SFC HIPRES MOVES EWD INTO ATLC. STG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD ON THU AHD OF CLOSED LOW OVER
CANADA...YIELDING SLY SFC FLOW AS PRES FALLS TO THE NW OF FCST
AREA. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS XPCD TO ADVC NWD ALONG ERN
CONUS...LEAVING FCST AREA BTWN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
THU BFR STALLING IN CNTRL OH. THIS BNDRY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY
PCPN LATE IN THE WK. POPS WERE FOCUSED IN WRN ZONES FRI AND WERE
INCRD SAT-SUN AS EJECTING JET MAXIMUM DRIVES BNDRY EWD.
TEMPS WILL RMN ABV NRML THU-FRI. IN WAKE OF CDFNT...TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR BLW-NRML LVLS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH. DIURNALLY DRIVEN VFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASING TO NEAR CALM.
RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR DAWN ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IS FORECAST
WITH MODEL SUPPORT AT KZZV...ALTHOUGH IFR RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 09Z-13Z WINDOW. KAGC/KHLG MAY ALSO HAVE NEAR DAWN
RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD.
THE BEST CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AND CIGS WILL BE MON NGT
THRU TUE NGT WITH SHWRS...MAINLY AT NRN TERMINALS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRAMAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
INCREASE SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW IN
QUEBEC CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM AREA. ON THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH...CENTERED NEAR
ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS PROVIDING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
AND BRING A DRY AND WARMER DAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 850MB
FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE ZONAL...WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ALSO AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAMP GUIDANCE...RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO NEAR 60 IN EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
TONIGHT...A 500MB RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. WITH
A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SETUP WILL BE SUITABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.
WITH COOLER AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARMER RIVERS...SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG WILL SETUP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS NEAR DAWN.
MONDAY...GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ON MONDAY WITH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING FROM
THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLY ON
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE 1-2 DEGREES
ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...INDUCING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO
AND LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH POINTS NORTH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS...LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT CAN BE 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE TUESDAY`S
HIGHS CAN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- VERY WARM WEATHER WED - FRI WITH TEMPS NEARLY 10F ABOVE NORMAL
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
- LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
COMBINATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AT MID LEVELS AND SSW SURFACE FLOW
CORRELATES TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER MID
WEEK. H8 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 13 TO 16C RANGE WED AND THUR. RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH OF OCT ARE IN THE LOWER 80S...SO DO NOT
FORESEE ANY BENCHMARKS BEING TAKEN DOWN. WITH ATMOSPHERE STAYING
WELL MIXED...INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA SET
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE
HIGHEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS THE REMINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH DISCREPANCIES
OF WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FROPA THUR NGT
INTO FRI MORNING THEN A BREAK BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES SAT NGT. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS KEEPS FRONT AT BAY
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUFFICIENT STEERING WINDS EXIST PERMITTING AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH OF PA. MODEL PREFERENCE WAS ECMWF AND CMC
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH. DIURNALLY DRIVEN VFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASING TO NEAR CALM.
RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR DAWN ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IS FORECAST
WITH MODEL SUPPORT AT KZZV...ALTHOUGH IFR RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 09Z-13Z WINDOW. KAGC/KHLG MAY ALSO HAVE NEAR DAWN
RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...WOODRUM