Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/10/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
155 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY AND IS
CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DECENT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE CAN
BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SPREADING OVER MS/AL/NORTHERN GA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST/TROPICAL PROFILE
STILL IN PLACE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE TO THE EAST OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH A PW OF AROUND 2".
AT THE SURFACE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED FROM
NEAR THE GA COAST WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND THEN
OUT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE
FRONT IS STILL SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CROSS CITY AND PERRY. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES THE MOIST
TROPICAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR ZONES FROM A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FILTERING DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
AL/GA.
WEAK DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC LIFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORCE SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WATERS
TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH
THE SYNOPTIC FORCING INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND COMBINE WITH MORE DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION TO RESULT IN A
SCATTERING OF STORMS FOR ALL ZONES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANOTHER KICK SOUTHWARD. ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS SOUTHWARD SURGE SHOULD SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EVENING BEFORE A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOSS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING ALL HELP TO DRIES THINGS OUT
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE GREATER ATMOSPHERIC PUSH
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...AND SOMEWHAT WARMER READINGS TOWARD
THE PINELLAS COUNTY/SUNCOAST BEACHES.
TUESDAY...THE INITIAL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE WITH THE MOST HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION EXISTING TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE MID-LEVEL
THETA-E VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 320K. HAVE GONE WITH 10-20% RAIN
CHANCES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND 20-30% POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR
THESE SOUTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF DRIER AIR WILL NOT BE
AS GREAT...CONDITIONS ABOVE 500MB WILL BE QUITE HOSTILE RESULTING IN
ANY CONVECTION REMAINING SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND
CONVECTIVELY HOSTILE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND
FEEBLE IF ANY SEA-BREEZE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERALLY
DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH MID/UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO
REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WED NIGHT SLIDES EAST
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF REGION THU-SAT AND THEN BEGINS
TO FLATTENS SUN. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK TO OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI...RIDGING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF. THIS HIGH IS
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
10 PERCENT OR LESS...AND WARM. LOWS WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE THE HIGHS WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE
E-NE TO EASTERLY AND ROBUST AT TIMES ON GULF WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LEFT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THEN IS REINFORCED BY AN EVEN STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND THEN INCREASE TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES ON TUESDAY... WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE ARRIVE OF DRIER
AIR...CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AND
RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BECOME VERY LOW OVER THE NATURE COAST ZONES ON TUESDAY AND THEN
BECOME LOW FOR ALL ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 88 72 88 / 30 20 10 0
FMY 72 90 74 90 / 20 30 20 10
GIF 70 90 69 90 / 30 20 10 10
SRQ 71 87 71 88 / 30 20 10 0
BKV 64 88 63 88 / 30 20 10 0
SPG 75 88 75 88 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
AVIATION...CARLISLE
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
907 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW IS CURRENTLY EXITING EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN MS VALLEY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DECENT
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SPREADING INTO MS/AL IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST/TROPICAL
PROFILE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS WITH A PW OF AROUND 2".
AT THE SURFACE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED FROM
NEAR THE GA COAST WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND THEN
OUT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES THE MOIST
TROPICAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR ZONES FROM A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FILTERING DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
AL/GA.
A COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEEP LAYER QG FORCING AHEAD OF
THE PRE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT A VAIL
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE PROFILE IS MOIST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES THIS MORNING TO RESULT FROM
THIS VAIL...HOWEVER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THAT BEING SAID...THE ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN BOTH THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE RESULTING DECREASE IN SOLAR INSOLATION WILL
CERTAINLY SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE THIS MORNING AND AT LEAST
DELAY...IF NOT ALSO WEAKEN THE EVENTUAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WHICH WILL ALSO DELAY REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES (MIDDLE 80S). CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 50% POPS/COVERAGE FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
FORECAST ALONE DUE TO SOME ADDED SYNOPTIC LIFT IN THE VICINITY THAT
SHOULD SOMEWHAT HELP TO OVERCOME THE THERMAL LIMITATIONS. LATEST
HRRR RUNS AND LOCAL HI-RES WRFARW HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
SO FAR THIS MORNING AND HENCE APPEAR TO BE OF LIMITED USAGE
EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 00Z NCEP HIRES WINDOW RUNS ARE
CURRENTLY MORE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORT THE CHANCE POP
FORECAST AFTER 18Z.
TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANOTHER KICK SOUTHWARD. ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THIS SOUTHWARD SURGE SHOULD SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIES
THINGS OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE GREATER ATMOSPHERIC
PUSH TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHERE A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY)...
DRIER AIR LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY ON A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL EXIST. THE MAV AND MET POPS LOOK A BIT LOW ON TUESDAY
GIVEN MODEL PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND DEPICT 20
PERCENT FAR NORTH AND 30 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT TOWARD THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. EVEN DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING
THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AS PW`S
DROP TO AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND AROUND
1.2 INCHES FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
EACH DAY...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING INTO THE IN THE 60S OVER THE
NATURE COAST...AND LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT KLAL AND THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 14Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF WATERS WILL SUPPORT A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. A STRONGER REINFORCING
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 72 88 72 / 50 20 30 10
FMY 88 74 90 73 / 50 20 30 10
GIF 87 73 90 71 / 50 20 30 10
SRQ 86 72 89 71 / 50 20 30 10
BKV 86 67 89 63 / 50 20 20 10
SPG 86 75 88 75 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD TROUGH IN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE US. A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REX BLOCK IS STILL IN PLACE OFF THE
WESTERN...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA AS STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA SHIFTS WEST AND DISSIPATES. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...SO
NO MENTION IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE
MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO THE 30-35F RANGE...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BRING TEMPS BACK UP
ABOVE FREEZING. DESPITE THIS...THERE IS STILL A WINDOW IN THE WEST
BETWEEN 06-09Z WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST HAVE ALREADY SEEN A HARD
FREEZE...SO I ONLY ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF MY CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER THAT MOVES TO A POSITION WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINIUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LACK OF FORCING
AND MOISTURE. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DYNAMICS
APPROACH THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PLAN TO KEEP A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FA.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY FRIDAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
HIGHER CHANCE POPS.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COOLING TO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE AROUND 70. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST FA SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEBRASKA.
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND
70 EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH
GLD AND MCK. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH GIVING WAY
TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO
AROUND 25KTS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JJM/LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICAN...WITH BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER CANADA. ON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. W/NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE TRI STATE REGION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
09-12Z...WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND IT. I HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
12-15Z...WITH ADVERTISED PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 8-11MB AND H85 WINDS
AROUND 14Z. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THESE WINDS CAN MIX
DOWN BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER OUR CWA. FOR
I INCREASED WINDS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BEST MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...SO ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...NAM/SREF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SNOW SEVERAL DAYS AGO THAT HAS ALREADY MELTED. BOTH
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TD VALUES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING...SO CONSIDERING THIS BIAS I WILL NOT BE INCLUDING FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS. A CUT OFF LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER TIMING MAY BE TOO FAST GIVEN PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE WITH CUT OFF SYSTEMS AND IT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND DEPART SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE
FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR WITH THE
SYSTEM SO NO WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HINT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED WITH THAT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS...THEN NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER BOTH TERMINALS AROUND
09Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS 27-30KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
129 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICAN...WITH BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER CANADA. ON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. W/NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE TRI STATE REGION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
09-12Z...WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND IT. I HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
12-15Z...WITH ADVERTISED PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 8-11MB AND H85 WINDS
AROUND 14Z. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THESE WINDS CAN MIX
DOWN BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER OUR CWA. FOR
I INCREASED WINDS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BEST MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...SO ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...NAM/SREF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SNOW SEVERAL DAYS AGO THAT HAS ALREADY MELTED. BOTH
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TD VALUES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING...SO CONSIDERING THIS BIAS I WILL NOT BE INCLUDING FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN CAPE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
GOOD AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE CWA. WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT ARE SLIGHTLY OUT OF AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE EC TAKES THE TRACK
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM TAKING A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS IT HEADS
ON TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER BOTH TERMINALS AROUND
09Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS 27-30KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW...POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY...AND WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED FLOW...MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW IS
DOMINATED BY A BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE THAT HAS PUSHED WEST SINCE YESTERDAY. TROUGH CONTINUES OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS LEAVES AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF
THE THEM PRETTY STRONG. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS HAS TAKEN
PLACE.
AT JET LEVEL...NEAR OUR AREA...THE NAM...CANADIAN...AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER. STRONG JET COMING FROM CANADA IS A LITTLE
UNDERDONE AND TOO FAR EAST. THE GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING A BETTER
JOB WITH THIS FEATURE. AT MID LEVELS MODELS WERE CLOSE. HOWEVER THEY
TENDED TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA AND THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF IT TOO FAR EAST. OVERALL...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF/NAM AND THE ECMWF. THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ON THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SINCE MIDNIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME POCKETS OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROST. HOWEVER...A LOT OF
LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH END OF
SHOT BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY CANCEL THIS ADVISORY EARLY.
WE START THE DAY BEING THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WHICH MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. THAT AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS MAINLY INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. WINDS START OUT IN A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION AND THEN BECOME
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND
RECENT TRENDS/BIASES SUPPORT KEEPING ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THERE.
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
BY THE END OF THE NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOME.
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...
WINDS ARE REALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND
SHOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP A LOT BEFORE MIXING STABILIZES THEM.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE MORNING. THIS SPREADS SOME THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
MODELS HAVE INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SINCE YESTERDAY. RATHER
TIGHT GRADIENT AND DECENT 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT DEFINITELY
BREEZY AND POSSIBLY WINDY.
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE
MAXES DOWN. DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH BUT KEPT MAXES NEAR WHAT THE
RECENT TRENDS AND APPLIED BIASES SUPPORT. RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT
THE FAR WEST. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BACK
UP DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATE 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AS WELL. SO
COULD BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOO THICK AND MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING
THE RIDGING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM. SURFACE RIDGE PULLS OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE NOT TOO DIFFERENT. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER PREVIOUS REASONING.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE JET DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME KIND OF JET LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING AND LAPSE RATES AS
WELL. IF MOISTURE WAS LOWER WOULD SAY SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR BUT JUST
SHOULD BE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE MODELS DRIVE SOME KIND OF BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
SUPPORT FOR THAT WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT IN. NO
MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. WILL GO WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN CAPE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
GOOD AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE CWA. WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT ARE SLIGHTLY OUT OF AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE EC TAKES THE TRACK
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM TAKING A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS IT HEADS
ON TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR KMCK DUE TO THE LATEST NAM/SREF MODELS
HINTING AT SOME FOG. RUC SOUNDINGS AND MOS STILL DO NOT SUPPORT
FOG FORMATION...BUT THE MOIST GROUND AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. NAM HAS STRONGER WINDS AND BELIEVE
IT IS OVERDONE AND OVERMIXING/RAISING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE INDICATED TODAY. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AND THEY MAY NOT BE IN CONCERT FOR THE THREE HOUR TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-002-
013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
LOWER DEW POINTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL CITY TO NORTON AREA. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE GUSTS DECLINING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DECLINES TO 15 PERCENT. THERE MAY BE A SMALL TWO
OR THREE HOUR WINDOW WHEN THE GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MEET
CRITERIA. HOWEVER HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THE CONDITIONS WILL MEET
THE 3 HOUR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012
LATEST OBS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FROST ADVISORY NEAR OR AT 30
DEGREES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE WINDS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR...WITH A LIGHT BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30
DEGREES. IN ADDITION THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
ADVECTING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO THE AREA. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE LARGE AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR OVER AN HOUR...WHICH IS
THE CRITERIA FOR A FREEZE HIGHLITE. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TODAY HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE IS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO...AND THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN AREAS WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOWFIELD.
A MUCH WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 25C SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
70S...WITH WARMING AIDED BY DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS.
SNOWFIELD IN THE NORTH SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT AND HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AFTER A COOL START.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LACK OF FORCING AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME VERY WEAK LIFT COMES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 30S WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWER TO MID 30S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW ILL MOVE TO A POSITION WEST OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY. UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND MOISTURE LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR KMCK DUE TO THE LATEST NAM/SREF MODELS
HINTING AT SOME FOG. RUC SOUNDINGS AND MOS STILL DO NOT SUPPORT
FOG FORMATION...BUT THE MOIST GROUND AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-002-
013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BECOME PRETTY
WIDESPREAD OVER ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST MAINE, SO CLOUD COVER
WAS INCREASED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY,
SO HAD TO INCREASE POPS AS WELL. OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SFC LOW OVER NRN ME AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND RUC ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FOR
THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGH 12Z. LOADED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR HRLY TEMP/DP. LOADED MATCH GUIDANCE FOR
MAX/MIN. LOADED NAM/GFS BLEND FOR WND/SKY/POP. ADDED 25 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER WATER...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA TUE AM WILL REMAIN RIDGED BACK TO THE
W ACROSS OUR AREA THRU THE DAY AS A DIGGING TROF OF LOW PRES OVR
THE GRT LAKES KICKS OUT A LEAD SHORT WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO RIDE
NEWRD UP THE ERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AND UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATER TUE... BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DVLP WEAK SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST TUE AM IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE AND LIFT
THIS SYSTEM NEWRD UP ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE LATER TUE/TUE
NGT. NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WWRD W/ THIS SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDINGLY
BRINGS A BIT MORE PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SRN/SERN AREAS. USED A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE NAM/GFS WHICH YIELDS CHC POPS THESE AREAS. BY
WED... THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWRD INTO ERN NB AND W/ A STRONG DIGGING
SFC TROF BY THIS TIME APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE UPPER TROF
WHICH HAD BEEN OVR THE GRT LAKES DRIVES EWRD...WILL CARRY CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA... TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THRU THIS PD...
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER TROF PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WED
NGT W/ STRONG CAA ON BRISK NW WNDS TO FOLLOW FOR THU AS A WEAK SFC
HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVR THE REGION... A SECONDARY UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS FCST TO FOLLOW QUICKLY FOR LATER THU/THU NGT W/ A WEAK SFC
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING
A ROUND OF RELATIVELY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION INCLUDING A CHC FOR
THE REGION/S FIRST FLAKES OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN AND NWRN AREAS
THU NGT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON FRI ON BRISK NW WINDS W/ VERY CHILLY BUT DRY CONDS THRU THE
WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SLIDES S OF THE AREA. USED GMOS TEMPS FOR NOW
BUT THESE MAY BE TYPICALLY TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ADVERTISED CAA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED PD...
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE/TUE NGT W/ PSBL MVFR TO
IFR CONDS DVLPG BY LATER WED AS A DIGGING LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES/THEN CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN FOR THU
W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR PSBL LATER THU NGT INTO FRI AS A WEAK
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WAVE CROSSES NRN MAINE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MORNING`S
LOW HAVE PRETTY MUCH EXITED INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, WHERE THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. UNTIL THEN, CAN`T RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SFC LOW OVER NRN ME AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND RUC ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FOR
THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGH 12Z. LOADED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR HRLY TEMP/DP. LOADED MATCH GUIDANCE FOR
MAX/MIN. LOADED NAM/GFS BLEND FOR WND/SKY/POP. ADDED 25 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER WATER...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA TUE AM WILL REMAIN RIDGED BACK TO THE
W ACROSS OUR AREA THRU THE DAY AS A DIGGING TROF OF LOW PRES OVR
THE GRT LAKES KICKS OUT A LEAD SHORT WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO RIDE
NEWRD UP THE ERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AND UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATER TUE... BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DVLP WEAK SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST TUE AM IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE AND LIFT
THIS SYSTEM NEWRD UP ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE LATER TUE/TUE
NGT. NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WWRD W/ THIS SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDINGLY
BRINGS A BIT MORE PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SRN/SERN AREAS. USED A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE NAM/GFS WHICH YIELDS CHC POPS THESE AREAS. BY
WED... THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWRD INTO ERN NB AND W/ A STRONG DIGGING
SFC TROF BY THIS TIME APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE UPPER TROF
WHICH HAD BEEN OVR THE GRT LAKES DRIVES EWRD...WILL CARRY CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA... TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THRU THIS PD...
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER TROF PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WED
NGT W/ STRONG CAA ON BRISK NW WNDS TO FOLLOW FOR THU AS A WEAK SFC
HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVR THE REGION... A SECONDARY UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS FCST TO FOLLOW QUICKLY FOR LATER THU/THU NGT W/ A WEAK SFC
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING
A ROUND OF RELATIVELY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION INCLUDING A CHC FOR
THE REGION/S FIRST FLAKES OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN AND NWRN AREAS
THU NGT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON FRI ON BRISK NW WINDS W/ VERY CHILLY BUT DRY CONDS THRU THE
WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SLIDES S OF THE AREA. USED GMOS TEMPS FOR NOW
BUT THESE MAY BE TYPICALLY TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ADVERTISED CAA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED PD...
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE/TUE NGT W/ PSBL MVFR TO
IFR CONDS DVLPG BY LATER WED AS A DIGGING LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES/THEN CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN FOR THU
W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR PSBL LATER THU NGT INTO FRI AS A WEAK
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WAVE CROSSES NRN MAINE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS ALL BUT MOVED EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. RADAR INDICATES A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGHER PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SWRN
MAINE...AND WILL BUILD INTO ERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND RUC ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SRN
GULF OF MAINE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGH 12Z. LOADED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR HRLY TEMP/DP. LOADED MATCH GUIDANCE FOR
MAX/MIN. LOADED NAM/GFS BLEND FOR WND/SKY/POP. ADDED 25 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER WATER...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA TUE AM WILL REMAIN RIDGED BACK TO THE
W ACROSS OUR AREA THRU THE DAY AS A DIGGING TROF OF LOW PRES OVR
THE GRT LAKES KICKS OUT A LEAD SHORT WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO RIDE
NEWRD UP THE ERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AND UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATER TUE... BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DVLP WEAK SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST TUE AM IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE AND LIFT
THIS SYSTEM NEWRD UP ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE LATER TUE/TUE
NGT. NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WWRD W/ THIS SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDINGLY
BRINGS A BIT MORE PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SRN/SERN AREAS. USED A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE NAM/GFS WHICH YIELDS CHC POPS THESE AREAS. BY
WED... THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWRD INTO ERN NB AND W/ A STRONG DIGGING
SFC TROF BY THIS TIME APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE UPPER TROF
WHICH HAD BEEN OVR THE GRT LAKES DRIVES EWRD...WILL CARRY CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA... TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THRU THIS PD...
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER TROF PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WED
NGT W/ STRONG CAA ON BRISK NW WNDS TO FOLLOW FOR THU AS A WEAK SFC
HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVR THE REGION... A SECONDARY UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS FCST TO FOLLOW QUICKLY FOR LATER THU/THU NGT W/ A WEAK SFC
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING
A ROUND OF RELATIVELY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION INCLUDING A CHC FOR
THE REGION/S FIRST FLAKES OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN AND NWRN AREAS
THU NGT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON FRI ON BRISK NW WINDS W/ VERY CHILLY BUT DRY CONDS THRU THE
WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SLIDES S OF THE AREA. USED GMOS TEMPS FOR NOW
BUT THESE MAY BE TYPICALLY TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ADVERTISED CAA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED PD...
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE/TUE NGT W/ PSBL MVFR TO
IFR CONDS DVLPG BY LATER WED AS A DIGGING LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES/THEN CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN FOR THU
W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR PSBL LATER THU NGT INTO FRI AS A WEAK
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WAVE CROSSES NRN MAINE.&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORTON
MARINE...NORTON/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
309 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC LOW OVER NRN ME AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO ERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND RUC ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGH 12Z. LOADED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR HRLY TEMP/DP. LOADED MATCH GUIDANCE FOR
MAX/MIN. LOADED NAM/GFS BLEND FOR WND/SKY/POP. ADDED 25 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER WATER...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA TUE AM WILL REMAIN RIDGED BACK TO THE
W ACROSS OUR AREA THRU THE DAY AS A DIGGING TROF OF LOW PRES OVR
THE GRT LAKES KICKS OUT A LEAD SHORT WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO RIDE
NEWRD UP THE ERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AND UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATER TUE... BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DVLP WEAK SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST TUE AM IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE AND LIFT
THIS SYSTEM NEWRD UP ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE LATER TUE/TUE
NGT. NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WWRD W/ THIS SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDINGLY
BRINGS A BIT MORE PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SRN/SERN AREAS. USED A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE NAM/GFS WHICH YIELDS CHC POPS THESE AREAS. BY
WED... THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWRD INTO ERN NB AND W/ A STRONG DIGGING
SFC TROF BY THIS TIME APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE UPPER TROF
WHICH HAD BEEN OVR THE GRT LAKES DRIVES EWRD...WILL CARRY CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA... TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THRU THIS PD...
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER TROF PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WED
NGT W/ STRONG CAA ON BRISK NW WNDS TO FOLLOW FOR THU AS A WEAK SFC
HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVR THE REGION... A SECONDARY UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS FCST TO FOLLOW QUICKLY FOR LATER THU/THU NGT W/ A WEAK SFC
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING
A ROUND OF RELATIVELY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION INCLUDING A CHC FOR
THE REGION/S FIRST FLAKES OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN AND NWRN AREAS
THU NGT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON FRI ON BRISK NW WINDS W/ VERY CHILLY BUT DRY CONDS THRU THE
WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SLIDES S OF THE AREA. USED GMOS TEMPS FOR NOW
BUT THESE MAY BE TYPICALLY TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ADVERTISED CAA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED PD...
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE/TUE NGT W/ PSBL MVFR TO
IFR CONDS DVLPG BY LATER WED AS A DIGGING LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES/THEN CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN FOR THU
W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR PSBL LATER THU NGT INTO FRI AS A WEAK
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WAVE CROSSES NRN MAINE.&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORTON
MARINE...NORTON/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
118 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT,
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION, WITH SOME WET SNOW ABOVE 3000
FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD QUICKLY MOVING EWD TNGT...AS
S/WV TROF AXIS IS PASSING OVERHEAD. HAVE CLEANED UP THE POP AND
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICKER CLEARING. SOMETHING ALONG THE
LINES OF THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. OTHERWISE...HAVE ALTERED
TEMPS/DEW POINTS TO KEEP THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED. LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE
AS OF 1030 PM. LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED ON TOP OF MOUNT
WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY
ALLOWING FOR A COATING AS LOW AS 2500 OR 3000 FT. OTHERWISE...RAIN
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT SOME FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
WITH SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A SYSTEM PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
KEEP A LID ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HOW WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO
END.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN
MAINE...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP AS A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY..COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LIKELY SEEING A DEEP FREEZE AS
MOISTURE CONTENT DROPS VERY LOW IN THE RESULTANT AIRMASS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT IN RAIN
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN FOG. VFR EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
KRKD COMMS OUTAGE CONTINUES...AND TAFS WILL BE ISSUED AS AMD NOT
SKED.
LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH FOR ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...CONDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO
SCA LVLS.
LONG TERM....SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
858 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE....BUILIDNG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO DROP THE FREEZE WARNING.
PER RECENT SATELLITE DATA...AND RAP AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR TODAY.
DUE TO THE CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE LIKEWISE
MADE SMALL DECREASES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV-MD RIDGES LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
OVR THE UPR OH REGION AND DVLP ANOTHE COLD NIGHT. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR WITH FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES RESULTING.
NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SOME COUNTIES WILL ALREADY HAVE HAD
A FREEZE AND AT THIS POINT IN OCTOBER NO GREAT SURPRISE IS IN
STORE. SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS REGION. WILL DECIDE IF
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AFTER FULLY ASSESSING
IF AND WHERE THE GROWING SEASON MAY STILL BE CONTINUING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH TUESAY.
BY WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
AND POSSIBLY SPAWN SOME SHOWERS ALTHOUGH TIME WL BE INSUFFICIENT
FOR BNDRY LYR MSTR RTN. CHANCE POPS WL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE SREF MEANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...AND THE PRIMARY REASON FOR KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST IS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE INFLUENCE.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS. 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF. THIS WOULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD COME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THE REST OF TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTHEAST
THROUGH VIRGINIA.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 KTS.
WITH DECREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SHOULD BE DECENT NOCTURNAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A STRONG SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD INDUCE RIVER VALLEY
FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT NEARBY TAF SITES WHERE SO FAR MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED AFTER 08Z.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
MAY SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROMOTE COOL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER RECENT SATELLITE DATA...AND RAP AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR TODAY.
DUE TO THE CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE LIKEWISE
MADE SMALL DECREASES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TO DISCONTINUE FREEZE WARNING AT 9 AM...AS BY THEN MOST OF
THE FREEZE IMPACTS WOULD HAVE OCCURRED.
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV-MD RIDGES LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEMS SHIFTS EAST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ACROSS REGION FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND
ALLOW FOR SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SOME COUNTIES WILL ALREADY HAVE HAD
A FREEZE AND AT THIS POINT IN OCTOBER NO GREAT SURPRISE IS IN
STORE. SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS REGION. WILL DECIDE IF
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AFTER FULLY ASSESSING
IF AND WHERE THE GROWING SEASON MAY STILL BE CONTINUING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AS AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS IN DOUBT
AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...AND THE PRIMARY REASON FOR KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST IS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE INFLUENCE.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS. 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF. THIS WOULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD COME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT REMAINING IFR FOG
TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z. VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF TODAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH VIRGINIA.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 KTS.
WITH DECREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SHOULD BE DECENT NOCTURNAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A STRONG SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD INDUCE RIVER VALLEY
FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT NEARBY TAF SITES WHERE SO FAR MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED AFTER 08Z.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1203 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. EMBEDDED IN THE TROF IS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO THRU NW WI TO SRN MN. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN REPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP AREA OF -RA ACROSS SE MN ACROSS WI
AND INTO MUCH OF UPPER MI TODAY.
FCST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT
REGIME AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -8C UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. AS
DEEP LAYER FORCING SHIFTS E TONIGHT...AREA OF PCPN CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ALL BUT THE FAR WRN FCST AREA SHOULD END BY MID EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL THEN DEVELOP/INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT THRU
WED MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT -5C E TO -8C W BY 12Z.
UPSTREAM KINL SOUNDING AT 12Z TODAY SHOWED 850MB TEMP OF -3C WITH
DEEP MOISTURE THRU 600MB. WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BUOY SHOWS A WATER TEMP
OF 7C. FOR LAKE EFFECT PURPOSES...8C IS PROBABLY A GOOD OVERALL
ESTIMATE FOR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SINCE THERE IS LIKELY SOME WARMER
WATER TOWARD SHORE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM DEEP MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER
INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DECENT COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS VEERING NW...BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
W SHOULD SET UP INTO GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES DUE TO LAND BREEZE
WIND COMPONENT OFF NW WI. TIME SECTIONS SHOW DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE TOP OF CONVECTIVE/MOIST LAYER...SO WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PERHAPS ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OF A
RAIN/GRAUPEL MIX DOWN TOWARD THE LAKE. OVER THE E...MARINE
MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO
LONGER FETCH OVER WARMER WATERS (ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BUOY SHOWS WATER
TEMP OF 10C AND IT IS LIKELY WARMER TOWARD SHORE). SO PCPN WILL BE
MORE RAIN OR RAIN/GRAUPEL RATHER THAN SNOW. MAY SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
FCST AREA IS SITUATED UNDER 850MB THERMAL TROF THRU THE DAY WED...
SO LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
OUT FROM W TO E...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS AT LOW LEVELS
AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO INCREASINGLY WORK TO DISRUPT LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. IN THE END...THIS WILL SPELL AN END TO LAKE EFFECT
PCPN OVER THE W IN THE AFTN AND A DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE E
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH DURING THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE
EAST IN THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND SHIFT IT
TOWARDS ONTARIO. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF ALASKA WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. QUESTION FOR THE
FORECAST IS HOW FAR S THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG. GEM/GFS ON THE
SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ON THE NORTH. COULD END UP
MAKING A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST PCPN AMNTS AND THUS SNOW
POTENTIAL. BEST FORCING...VERY STRONG H850-700 WAA ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH
HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY FROM TWIN LAKES AND HOUGHTON SOUTHEAST TO
MANISTIQUE/NEWBERRY. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE WAA...DID SHIFT THE PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BASED
OFF LATEST VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS AND POTENTIAL FARTHER S
SOLUTION. THE BEST FORCING IS WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WITH
THE LLVL TEMPS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA NOW REMAINING AT OR A
DEGREE ABOVE FREEZING AND DURING THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY...THINK
THE INTENSITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD ALLOW IT TO FALL AS SNOW. THIS
MODERATE...TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY...SNOW FALLING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE KEWEENAW ON THURSDAY MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESSER
AMNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE SHORELINE WHERE IT WILL MIX
WITH RAIN. THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE KEWEENAW WITH
SUBTLE CHANGES MAKING A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW.
ELSEWHERE...PCPN AMNTS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT STILL
THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD SEE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS INITIAL
DRY LLVL AIR AIDS EVAPORATIVE COOLING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FROM AN INCH OVER THE NCNTRL TO A DUSTING TO THE SOUTH...IF THE
GROUND ISN/T TOO WARM THERE.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 6-12HR GAP IN THE PCPN
BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN PICKS UP THURS AFTN WHEN THE -5C H850
TEMPS ARRIVE AND FALL TO -7C ON THURS NIGHT. THE COOL WATER TEMPS
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR PUTS THE WRN CWA UNDER MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...BUT THE EAST SHOULD STILL SEE FAVORABLE VALUES. DRY MID LVL
AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND HELP INHIBIT CLOUD DEPTH
UNTIL IT SLIDES SOUTH ON THURS NIGHT. WITH THE LIMITED CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST...WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT/CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND HIGH
CHANCES AND LIKELY/S OVER THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THINGS STILL SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LATE ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF HAS PUSHED
THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SE. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
MOISTURE BROUGHT UP FROM THE SW...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR A
WIDESPREAD 0.75 PLUS OF RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY THING
THAT COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH PCPN AMNTS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE THE
DRY SLOT THAT TRIES TO SURGE NE INTO THE SCNTRL CWA ON SAT NIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUES. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS WITH LAKE EFFECT
-SHRA MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO -SN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
KIWD/KCMX WITH UPSLOPE WNW WIND COMPONENT. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE
WNW FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND DELAY
ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AFT 09Z. EXPECT CIGS
TO LIFT TO VFR WED AFTERNOON AS RDDG MOVES IN FM THE WEST AND WINDS
BACK MORE WRLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
COLD FRONT/TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS IN
GENERAL WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MIXING. ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING...PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY HELP PUSH WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT THRU WED MORNING FROM NCNTRL INTO SCNTRL/SE LAKE
SUPERIOR.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS
LOW...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO
30KTS...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY AND DECREASE WINDS BELOW 20KTS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. EMBEDDED IN THE TROF IS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO THRU NW WI TO SRN MN. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN REPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP AREA OF -RA ACROSS SE MN ACROSS WI
AND INTO MUCH OF UPPER MI TODAY.
FCST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT
REGIME AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -8C UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. AS
DEEP LAYER FORCING SHIFTS E TONIGHT...AREA OF PCPN CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ALL BUT THE FAR WRN FCST AREA SHOULD END BY MID EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL THEN DEVELOP/INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT THRU
WED MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT -5C E TO -8C W BY 12Z.
UPSTREAM KINL SOUNDING AT 12Z TODAY SHOWED 850MB TEMP OF -3C WITH
DEEP MOISTURE THRU 600MB. WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BUOY SHOWS A WATER TEMP
OF 7C. FOR LAKE EFFECT PURPOSES...8C IS PROBABLY A GOOD OVERALL
ESTIMATE FOR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SINCE THERE IS LIKELY SOME WARMER
WATER TOWARD SHORE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM DEEP MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER
INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DECENT COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS VEERING NW...BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
W SHOULD SET UP INTO GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES DUE TO LAND BREEZE
WIND COMPONENT OFF NW WI. TIME SECTIONS SHOW DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE TOP OF CONVECTIVE/MOIST LAYER...SO WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PERHAPS ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OF A
RAIN/GRAUPEL MIX DOWN TOWARD THE LAKE. OVER THE E...MARINE
MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO
LONGER FETCH OVER WARMER WATERS (ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BUOY SHOWS WATER
TEMP OF 10C AND IT IS LIKELY WARMER TOWARD SHORE). SO PCPN WILL BE
MORE RAIN OR RAIN/GRAUPEL RATHER THAN SNOW. MAY SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
FCST AREA IS SITUATED UNDER 850MB THERMAL TROF THRU THE DAY WED...
SO LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
OUT FROM W TO E...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS AT LOW LEVELS
AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO INCREASINGLY WORK TO DISRUPT LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. IN THE END...THIS WILL SPELL AN END TO LAKE EFFECT
PCPN OVER THE W IN THE AFTN AND A DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE E
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH DURING THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE
EAST IN THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND SHIFT IT
TOWARDS ONTARIO. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF ALASKA WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. QUESTION FOR THE
FORECAST IS HOW FAR S THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG. GEM/GFS ON THE
SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ON THE NORTH. COULD END UP
MAKING A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST PCPN AMNTS AND THUS SNOW
POTENTIAL. BEST FORCING...VERY STRONG H850-700 WAA ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH
HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY FROM TWIN LAKES AND HOUGHTON SOUTHEAST TO
MANISTIQUE/NEWBERRY. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE WAA...DID SHIFT THE PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BASED
OFF LATEST VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS AND POTENTIAL FARTHER S
SOLUTION. THE BEST FORCING IS WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WITH
THE LLVL TEMPS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA NOW REMAINING AT OR A
DEGREE ABOVE FREEZING AND DURING THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY...THINK
THE INTENSITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD ALLOW IT TO FALL AS SNOW. THIS
MODERATE...TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY...SNOW FALLING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE KEWEENAW ON THURSDAY MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESSER
AMNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE SHORELINE WHERE IT WILL MIX
WITH RAIN. THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE KEWEENAW WITH
SUBTLE CHANGES MAKING A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW.
ELSEWHERE...PCPN AMNTS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT STILL
THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD SEE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS INITIAL
DRY LLVL AIR AIDS EVAPORATIVE COOLING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FROM AN INCH OVER THE NCNTRL TO A DUSTING TO THE SOUTH...IF THE
GROUND ISN/T TOO WARM THERE.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 6-12HR GAP IN THE PCPN
BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN PICKS UP THURS AFTN WHEN THE -5C H850
TEMPS ARRIVE AND FALL TO -7C ON THURS NIGHT. THE COOL WATER TEMPS
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR PUTS THE WRN CWA UNDER MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...BUT THE EAST SHOULD STILL SEE FAVORABLE VALUES. DRY MID LVL
AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND HELP INHIBIT CLOUD DEPTH
UNTIL IT SLIDES SOUTH ON THURS NIGHT. WITH THE LIMITED CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST...WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT/CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND HIGH
CHANCES AND LIKELY/S OVER THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THINGS STILL SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LATE ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF HAS PUSHED
THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SE. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
MOISTURE BROUGHT UP FROM THE SW...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR A
WIDESPREAD 0.75 PLUS OF RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE ONLY THING
THAT COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH PCPN AMNTS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE THE
DRY SLOT THAT TRIES TO SURGE NE INTO THE SCNTRL CWA ON SAT NIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUES. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
PER KMQT RADAR...MAIN BAND OF -RA HAS MOVED EAST OF KSAW. THERE IS A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA THAT COULD STILL AFFECT KSAW UNTIL 01Z...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT A BRIEF PD OF VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL COLDER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER
AIR EXPECT INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CIGS/LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THAT MIX WITH/CHANGE TO -SN
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KIWD/KCMX WITH UPSLOPE WNW WIND COMPONENT.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE WNW FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND MAKE VFR CIGS A GREATER POSSIBILITY THAN AT
KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR WED AFTERNOON AS RDDG MOVES IN
FM THE WEST AND WINDS BACK MORE WRLY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
COLD FRONT/TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS IN
GENERAL WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MIXING. ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING...PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY HELP PUSH WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT THRU WED MORNING FROM NCNTRL INTO SCNTRL/SE LAKE
SUPERIOR.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS
LOW...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO
30KTS...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY AND DECREASE WINDS BELOW 20KTS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROF
DOMINATING ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT DROPPING SE INTO
THE ERN TROF. ONE IS HEADING INTO NRN MN WHILE A SECOND STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD WAVE IS OVER NW MN WITH SECONDARY CENTER
VCNTY OF LAKE WINNIPEG. IN REPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...12Z
RAOBS AT 850MB SHOW STRONG WAA INTO THE UPPER LAKES...CORRESPONDING
TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. LINGERING DRY
AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KMPX SOUNDING IS SO FAR LIMITING
SRN EXTENT OF PCPN.
SHORT TERM WILL BE ACTIVE WITH THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
AFFECTING THE AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS WITHIN
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE ERN FCST AREA
WHERE 925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 40-50KT BY NAM/GFS. LOW-LEVEL WIND
MAX WON`T BE PASSING DURING THE FAVORABLE PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR MIXING. HOWEVER...AREA OF DECENT PRES FALLS PASSING JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CERTAINLY BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR FOR STRONGER
WINDS. SO...CURRENT WIND ADVY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE DELTA/SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT WHICH ARE EXPOSED TO STRONG WINDS UP LAKE MICHIGAN.
SINCE S WINDS ARE A VERY FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER WINDS
AT GRAND MARAIS AND KERY...OPTED TO INCLUDE ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT
AND LUCE COUNTIES IN ADVY AS WELL. AS FOR PCPN...GIVEN RADAR/SFC OB
TRENDS AND MODEL INDICATED PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME -SHRA APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NRN UPPER MI...DESPITE CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NE...FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCE FOR THE ERN FCST AREA.
ON TUE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN. IN RESPONSE...A NICE SW-NE ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
FGEN CIRCULATION. BASED ON FGEN...THE ERN FCST SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR
PCPN...AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A GRADIENT FROM SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
OVER THE W TO HIGH LIKELY OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN FEATURES A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...FOLLOWED BY 12-24HRS OF LK
EFFECT PRECIPITATION AND THEN A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR ANOTHER
12-24HRS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE
FREQUENT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH...IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE ONLY
TIMES WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ARE DURING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ON
WED AFTN/EVENING AND FRIDAY.
FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE NE THROUGH ONTARIO AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WHILE SFC TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ERN CWA. NAM
DIFFERS FROM THE REST OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS IN DEVELOPING
ANOTHER LOW OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND LEFT
FRONT OF UPPER JET MOVE THROUGH. NOT SEEING THAT ON THE
LOCAL/NATIONAL HI-RES WRF RUNS...SO WILL DISREGARD AT THIS POINT.
PCPN SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE FORCING.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND COLDER H850
TEMPS WILL SURGE SE...FALLING TO -7C BY 12Z WED. LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
STRONGEST INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS
FOR ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WRN U.P.
TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LLVL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PULL OUT
FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY WED AS WINDS BACK TO THE WSW IN RESPONSE
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES RIGHT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE WNW FLOW. WITH THE BEST WAA/FORCING
LIKELY OVER LK SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGHEST POPS
THERE AND ONLY SLIGHTS/CHANCES OVER THE SRN CWA. P-TYPE COULD BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PART OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH
LAYER...EXPECT THE PCPN TO START AS SNOW. BUT LOOKING AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE TOO MUCH WARM AIR TO WORK WITH. A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT FREEZING FROM 1-3KFT BEFORE WARMING A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. IN THE HEAVIER PCPN
AREAS...WOULD THINK THIS WOULD DEFINITELY STAY AS ALL SNOW...BUT
LIGHTER AREAS WOULD PROBABLY BE A MIX. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO THE LIKELY WEAKER INTENSITY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE LOW ON THURS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND BRINGS
AN END TO THE SHOWERS.
WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE LAST
DAY...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW NOW TRACKING OVER UPPER MI.
THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSED BY THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING THROUGH THE SW CONUS THIS WEEK AND EXITING INTO THE
PLAINS ON FRI NIGHT. LOCATION AND TIMING ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN AND IT/S ENS MEMBERS VARY
GREATLY FROM GFS/ECMWF. LOOKING AT 00Z GFS ENS MEMBERS...THE MEAN OF
THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WOULD GIVE A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WHICH THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS TRENDED
TOWARDS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION
THAN YESTERDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE SAT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD.
WARM AIR SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO THE PCPN
STAYING RAIN. COULD BE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SAT NIGHT...AS
SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO 0 TO -1C ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...ALTHOUGH MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
DESPITE DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE S. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MAY STILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF -SHRA AT KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING. -SHRA ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
AT KSAW AS BETTER FORCING TENDS TO LIFT NE WITH TIME. LOW-LEVEL JET
TRAVERSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THRU THE EVENING. SHOULD
SFC WINDS DECOUPLE TO SOME DEGREE THIS EVENING...LLWS WILL BE AN
ISSUE. SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE WILL
BRING A ROUND OF -SHRA TO KSAW. IT APPEARS KCMX/KIWD MAY BE JUST W OF
THE MAIN PCPN AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM NW MN AND HIGH
PRES TO THE E COMBINED WITH AREA OF PRES FALLS PASSING JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN S GALES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. COULD BE A FEW HRS LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45KT AT HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WIND SWITCH TO THE WSW ALONG WITH PRES RISE HEADING FOR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE AREA BTWN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW. WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 15-25KT TUE.
ACTIVE PERIOD ON LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER
THE EASTERN LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DECREASES WINDS BELOW 25KTS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
AGAIN PRODUCE WEST GUSTS TO 30-35KTS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP...FULL
LATITUDE UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON
BAY. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS RDG AND LO PRES TROF EXTENDING ACRS SRN
CANADA FM LO CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDING E INTO NW ONTARIO
ARE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCES ON CURRENT WX OVER UPR MI. THE STEADY
WSW FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 00Z MPX RAOB INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIER CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE 290-295K SFCS /H7-6/. MID CLDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE JUST TO THE
N OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE TROF OVER SRN CANADA...BUT THE DRYNESS OF
THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS RESTRICTING SHRA COVERAGE TO
N OF THE BORDER. THERE ARE SCT -SHRA IN THE NRN PLAINS NEAR H85 TROF
AND UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. PCPN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOSER TO THE LO CENTER NEAR SASKATCHEWAN/LK WINNIPEG
CLOSER TO MORE VIGOROUS SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290K SFC WL
RESULT IN THICKENING MID CLDS FM THE N AND W...PERSISTENCE OF LLVL
DRY ADVECTION FM THE SW WL REMAIN A SGNFT IMPEDIMENT TO ANY -SHRA.
THE BEST CHC FOR -SHRA WL BE LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE W WHERE
SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD FM CNTRL CANADA IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY 21Z AND
BEGIN TO MORE THOROUGHLY LIFT/SATURATE THE MID TROP. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING PCPN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...BUT PREFER THE
DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS GIVEN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE DRY LYR AOB H85 BY DRY ADVECTION. ONE OTHER SGNFT FEATURE
TODAY WL BE GUSTY WINDS AS FCST SDNGS SHOW A WELL MIXED SFC-H85
PROFILE THAT WL ENHANCE TRANSPORT TO THE SFC OF H925 WINDS FCST TO
REACH 35-40KTS BY 00Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
MORE EXPOSED ERN ZNS DOWNWIND OF LK MI...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS
FCST TO BE SHARPEST/H925 WINDS STRONGEST. FCST SDNGS INDICATE HI
TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS AFTN.
TNGT...SHRTWV/LO PRES WILL TRACK ENEWD THRU ONTARIO. THE SHARP PRES
FALL MOVING THRU ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES WL ENHANCE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT/SLY FLOW...SO OPTED TO GO WITH WIND ADVY
FOR THE EXPOSED ERN ZNS BORDERING LK MI WITH WELL MIXED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ENHANCING THE MIXING OF H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS. SINCE
SHARPER FORCING LIFTS NE THRU ONTARIO WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO...SUSPECT
PCPN SHIELD WL TEND TO DRY UP AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
MOVES TO THE E...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI...WHERE SOME MOISTENING OFF
THAT BODY OF WATER WL ENHANCE POPS A BIT. DRY SLOTTING ALF UNDER THE
JET SURGE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV TRACK WL TEND TO END POPS OVER
THE W LATER AT NGT FOLLOWING ATTENDANT COLD FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
THE GALES OF NOVEMBER HAVE STARTED IN OCTOBER. AFTER A FAIRLY QUITE
PERIOD...WE ARE BACK TO GALES OR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF GALES
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURROUNDING UPPER MI.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE SFC LOW WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF COOLER AIR...MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW OVER N CANADA AND HUDSON BAY. NW WINDS
NEAR THE SFC...AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW -6C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE TOO WARM NEAR THE SHORELINE
TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
EVEN THROUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /-7 TO -8C/ WILL TOUCH THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
ALREADY BE SCOURED OUT...AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THANKS TO THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE E OF MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...
WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE NW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY...AS THE CUT OFF
LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE N CA SHORELINE DIGS TO THE 4-CORNERS
AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL SLIDE OVER IA/MN SATURDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME PART OF THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE 08/00Z RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS
BECOME A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND FASTER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ENTIRE AREA COULD GET OVER 0.25-0.5IN OF RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND ON MUCH WARMER AIR AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO 10-12C AS THE
NE TRACKING SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER W OR CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
DESPITE DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE S. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MAY STILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF -SHRA AT KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING. -SHRA ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
AT KSAW AS BETTER FORCING TENDS TO LIFT NE WITH TIME. LOW-LEVEL JET
TRAVERSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THRU THE EVENING. SHOULD
SFC WINDS DECOUPLE TO SOME DEGREE THIS EVENING...LLWS WILL BE AN
ISSUE. SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE WILL
BRING A ROUND OF -SHRA TO KSAW. IT APPEARS KCMX/KIWD MAY BE JUST W OF
THE MAIN PCPN AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN A HI IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A LO MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MN...EXPECT
STRENGTHENING S-SW WINDS THRU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ONSET OF GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST MAY BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...GALES STILL SEEM LIKELY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SO
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS WARNING. THESE S GALES WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE WSW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE AREA BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE EXPECTED
WSW FLOW ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
A SECONDARY TROUGH/ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP
25-30KT WINDS SWITCHING TO A NW DIRECTION TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING NW WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR.
A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 35KT GALES OUT OF THE W TO NW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON /MAINLY ACROSS E LS/...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FIGURED
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP...FULL
LATITUDE UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON
BAY. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS RDG AND LO PRES TROF EXTENDING ACRS SRN
CANADA FM LO CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDING E INTO NW ONTARIO
ARE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCES ON CURRENT WX OVER UPR MI. THE STEADY
WSW FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 00Z MPX RAOB INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIER CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE 290-295K SFCS /H7-6/. MID CLDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE JUST TO THE
N OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE TROF OVER SRN CANADA...BUT THE DRYNESS OF
THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS RESTRICTING SHRA COVERAGE TO
N OF THE BORDER. THERE ARE SCT -SHRA IN THE NRN PLAINS NEAR H85 TROF
AND UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. PCPN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOSER TO THE LO CENTER NEAR SASKATCHEWAN/LK WINNIPEG
CLOSER TO MORE VIGOROUS SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290K SFC WL
RESULT IN THICKENING MID CLDS FM THE N AND W...PERSISTENCE OF LLVL
DRY ADVECTION FM THE SW WL REMAIN A SGNFT IMPEDIMENT TO ANY -SHRA.
THE BEST CHC FOR -SHRA WL BE LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE W WHERE
SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD FM CNTRL CANADA IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY 21Z AND
BEGIN TO MORE THOROUGHLY LIFT/SATURATE THE MID TROP. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING PCPN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...BUT PREFER THE
DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS GIVEN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE DRY LYR AOB H85 BY DRY ADVECTION. ONE OTHER SGNFT FEATURE
TODAY WL BE GUSTY WINDS AS FCST SDNGS SHOW A WELL MIXED SFC-H85
PROFILE THAT WL ENHANCE TRANSPORT TO THE SFC OF H925 WINDS FCST TO
REACH 35-40KTS BY 00Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
MORE EXPOSED ERN ZNS DOWNWIND OF LK MI...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS
FCST TO BE SHARPEST/H925 WINDS STRONGEST. FCST SDNGS INDICATE HI
TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS AFTN.
TNGT...SHRTWV/LO PRES WILL TRACK ENEWD THRU ONTARIO. THE SHARP PRES
FALL MOVING THRU ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES WL ENHANCE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT/SLY FLOW...SO OPTED TO GO WITH WIND ADVY
FOR THE EXPOSED ERN ZNS BORDERING LK MI WITH WELL MIXED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ENHANCING THE MIXING OF H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS. SINCE
SHARPER FORCING LIFTS NE THRU ONTARIO WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO...SUSPECT
PCPN SHIELD WL TEND TO DRY UP AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
MOVES TO THE E...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI...WHERE SOME MOISTENING OFF
THAT BODY OF WATER WL ENHANCE POPS A BIT. DRY SLOTTING ALF UNDER THE
JET SURGE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV TRACK WL TEND TO END POPS OVER
THE W LATER AT NGT FOLLOWING ATTENDANT COLD FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
THE GALES OF NOVEMBER HAVE STARTED IN OCTOBER. AFTER A FAIRLY QUITE
PERIOD...WE ARE BACK TO GALES OR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF GALES
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURROUNDING UPPER MI.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE SFC LOW WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF COOLER AIR...MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW OVER N CANADA AND HUDSON BAY. NW WINDS
NEAR THE SFC...AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW -6C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE TOO WARM NEAR THE SHORELINE
TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
EVEN THROUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /-7 TO -8C/ WILL TOUCH THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
ALREADY BE SCOURED OUT...AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THANKS TO THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE E OF MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...
WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE NW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY...AS THE CUT OFF
LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE N CA SHORELINE DIGS TO THE 4-CORNERS
AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL SLIDE OVER IA/MN SATURDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME PART OF THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE 08/00Z RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS
BECOME A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND FASTER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ENTIRE AREA COULD GET OVER 0.25-0.5IN OF RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND ON MUCH WARMER AIR AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO 10-12C AS THE
NE TRACKING SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER W OR CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ANY LLWS TO END BY LATE MRNG AS
SFC WINDS TURN GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTN
AT SAW...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARPEST. DESPITE INCRSG MID/
HI CLDS...ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE LLVLS WL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS EVEN IF SOME -SHRA ARRIVE AT CMX/IWD LATER IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW. THESE -SHRA ARE LESS LIKELY
AT SAW AS MAIN AREA OF FORCING TNGT WL TEND TO DRIFT TO THE NE. THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR LATER TNGT WL END ANY -SHRA AND MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WL ALSO DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT TO THE E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN A HI IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A LO MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MN...EXPECT
STRENGTHENING S-SW WINDS THRU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ONSET OF GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST MAY BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...GALES STILL SEEM LIKELY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SO
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS WARNING. THESE S GALES WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE WSW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE AREA BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE EXPECTED
WSW FLOW ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
A SECONDARY TROUGH/ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP
25-30KT WINDS SWITCHING TO A NW DIRECTION TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING NW WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR.
A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 35KT GALES OUT OF THE W TO NW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON /MAINLY ACROSS E LS/...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FIGURED
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
551 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP...FULL
LATITUDE UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON
BAY. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS RDG AND LO PRES TROF EXTENDING ACRS SRN
CANADA FM LO CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDING E INTO NW ONTARIO
ARE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCES ON CURRENT WX OVER UPR MI. THE STEADY
WSW FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 00Z MPX RAOB INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIER CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE 290-295K SFCS /H7-6/. MID CLDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE JUST TO THE
N OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE TROF OVER SRN CANADA...BUT THE DRYNESS OF
THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS RESTRICTING SHRA COVERAGE TO
N OF THE BORDER. THERE ARE SCT -SHRA IN THE NRN PLAINS NEAR H85 TROF
AND UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. PCPN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOSER TO THE LO CENTER NEAR SASKATCHEWAN/LK WINNIPEG
CLOSER TO MORE VIGOROUS SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290K SFC WL
RESULT IN THICKENING MID CLDS FM THE N AND W...PERSISTENCE OF LLVL
DRY ADVECTION FM THE SW WL REMAIN A SGNFT IMPEDIMENT TO ANY -SHRA.
THE BEST CHC FOR -SHRA WL BE LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE W WHERE
SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD FM CNTRL CANADA IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY 21Z AND
BEGIN TO MORE THOROUGHLY LIFT/SATURATE THE MID TROP. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING PCPN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...BUT PREFER THE
DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS GIVEN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE DRY LYR AOB H85 BY DRY ADVECTION. ONE OTHER SGNFT FEATURE
TODAY WL BE GUSTY WINDS AS FCST SDNGS SHOW A WELL MIXED SFC-H85
PROFILE THAT WL ENHANCE TRANSPORT TO THE SFC OF H925 WINDS FCST TO
REACH 35-40KTS BY 00Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
MORE EXPOSED ERN ZNS DOWNWIND OF LK MI...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS
FCST TO BE SHARPEST/H925 WINDS STRONGEST. FCST SDNGS INDICATE HI
TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS AFTN.
TNGT...SHRTWV/LO PRES WILL TRACK ENEWD THRU ONTARIO. THE SHARP PRES
FALL MOVING THRU ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES WL ENHANCE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT/SLY FLOW...SO OPTED TO GO WITH WIND ADVY
FOR THE EXPOSED ERN ZNS BORDERING LK MI WITH WELL MIXED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ENHANCING THE MIXING OF H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS. SINCE
SHARPER FORCING LIFTS NE THRU ONTARIO WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO...SUSPECT
PCPN SHIELD WL TEND TO DRY UP AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
MOVES TO THE E...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI...WHERE SOME MOISTENING OFF
THAT BODY OF WATER WL ENHANCE POPS A BIT. DRY SLOTTING ALF UNDER THE
JET SURGE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV TRACK WL TEND TO END POPS OVER
THE W LATER AT NGT FOLLOWING ATTENDANT COLD FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
THE GALES OF NOVEMBER HAVE STARTED IN OCTOBER. AFTER A FAIRLY QUITE
PERIOD...WE ARE BACK TO GALES OR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF GALES
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURROUNDING UPPER MI.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE SFC LOW WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF COOLER AIR...MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW OVER N CANADA AND HUDSON BAY. NW WINDS
NEAR THE SFC...AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW -6C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE TOO WARM NEAR THE SHORELINE
TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
EVEN THROUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /-7 TO -8C/ WILL TOUCH THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
ALREADY BE SCOURED OUT...AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THANKS TO THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE E OF MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...
WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE NW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY...AS THE CUT OFF
LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE N CA SHORELINE DIGS TO THE 4-CORNERS
AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL SLIDE OVER IA/MN SATURDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME PART OF THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE 08/00Z RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS
BECOME A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND FASTER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ENTIRE AREA COULD GET OVER 0.25-0.5IN OF RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND ON MUCH WARMER AIR AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO 10-12C AS THE
NE TRACKING SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER W OR CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
EXPECT INTERVALS OF MID/HI CLDS INTO MONDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PD. PLAN ON SOME MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION ALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WIND. SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT KCMX
AND KIWD AT THIS TIME WHERE FORCING WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE ALONG THE
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN A HI IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A LO MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MN...EXPECT
STRENGTHENING S-SW WINDS THRU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ONSET OF GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST MAY BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...GALES STILL SEEM LIKELY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SO
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS WARNING. THESE S GALES WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE WSW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE AREA BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE EXPECTED
WSW FLOW ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
A SECONDARY TROUGH/ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP
25-30KT WINDS SWITCHING TO A NW DIRECTION TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING NW WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR.
A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 35KT GALES OUT OF THE W TO NW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON /MAINLY ACROSS E LS/...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FIGURED
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07/KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
940 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.UPDATE...
COVERAGE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO. LOSS OF HEATING HAS HELPED DIMINISH THE
SHOWERS...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A DIMINISHING TREND
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
SHORE. COLD AIR...850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -8C AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
THE FETCH DOES APPEAR TO BE TOO WEST OF NORTH IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WE WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS OVER
THE SNOWBELT OF IRON COUNTY...TO PORTIONS OF ASHLAND COUNTY TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHLAND AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 3
MILES...AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
MOST PLACES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...BUT PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SNOWBELT OF IRON AND PERHAPS INTO ASHLAND COUNTY AS WELL.
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING...EVEN DIPPING
BRIEFLY TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WE EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME REDUCTION
IN CEILING OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING
AFTER 04Z OR SO. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SPOTS...AS
SUGGESTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE DO LOWER CEILINGS TO
MVFR FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS WILL COME UP ON
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT 330 PM...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIX RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT A CHECK WITH SOME OBSERVERS AND AREA
WEBCAMS REVEALS NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY NEAR 40
NORTH AND IN THE 40S SOUTH. WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE SOME 25 KNOT WINDS WERE FOUND.
TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT
THE DLH LOCAL RUN OF THE WRF WAS INDICATING SOME STREAMERS FROM
MANY LARGER INLAND LAKES...ESPECIALLY LAKE OF THE WOODS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND OF SOME OF THE
INTERIOR LAKES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE 20S.
WEDNESDAY...THE DAY WILL START DRY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS A
VIGOROUS ALBERTA CLIPPER SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD SNOW...MIXED
WITH SOME RAIN...FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION WOULD BE THE
WESTERN IRON RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IRON RANGE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. THINK THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH DYNAMIC
COOLING TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD COME
SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST FORCING...NAMELY THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NORTHLANDERS WILL WAKE UP THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
POSSIBLY NEAR IRONWOOD IN IRON COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND WILL TAKE A BIG CHANGE WHEN A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARM AND MOISTURE RICH AIR TO THE
FA...SO POPS DRAMATICALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE FA COULD GET AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE PAST THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 44 31 43 / 50 20 40 10
INL 24 42 28 41 / 40 40 60 20
BRD 26 49 33 46 / 10 20 30 0
HYR 25 47 33 47 / 50 0 30 10
ASX 30 46 34 47 / 50 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHLAND AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 3
MILES...AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
MOST PLACES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...BUT PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SNOWBELT OF IRON AND PERHAPS INTO ASHLAND COUNTY AS WELL.
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING...EVEN DIPPING
BRIEFLY TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WE EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME REDUCTION
IN CEILING OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING
AFTER 04Z OR SO. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SPOTS...AS
SUGGESTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE DO LOWER CEILINGS TO
MVFR FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS WILL COME UP ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT 330 PM...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIX RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT A CHECK WITH SOME OBSERVERS AND AREA
WEBCAMS REVEALS NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY NEAR 40
NORTH AND IN THE 40S SOUTH. WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE SOME 25 KNOT WINDS WERE FOUND.
TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT
THE DLH LOCAL RUN OF THE WRF WAS INDICATING SOME STREAMERS FROM
MANY LARGER INLAND LAKES...ESPECIALLY LAKE OF THE WOODS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND OF SOME OF THE
INTERIOR LAKES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE 20S.
WEDNESDAY...THE DAY WILL START DRY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS A
VIGOROUS ALBERTA CLIPPER SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD SNOW...MIXED
WITH SOME RAIN...FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION WOULD BE THE
WESTERN IRON RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IRON RANGE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. THINK THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH DYNAMIC
COOLING TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD COME
SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST FORCING...NAMELY THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NORTHLANDERS WILL WAKE UP THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
POSSIBLY NEAR IRONWOOD IN IRON COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND WILL TAKE A BIG CHANGE WHEN A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARM AND MOISTURE RICH AIR TO THE
FA...SO POPS DRAMATICALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE FA COULD GET AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE PAST THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 44 31 43 / 20 20 40 10
INL 24 42 28 41 / 30 40 60 20
BRD 26 49 33 46 / 10 20 30 0
HYR 25 47 33 47 / 20 0 30 10
ASX 30 46 34 47 / 20 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ146-147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
916 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
A FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED BAND OF RAINFALL HAS READILY FORMED ON
A LINE FROM ABOUT LEWISTOWN TO ROUNDUP AND LAME DEER THIS MORNING.
WE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL /80 TO 90 PERCENT/ RANGE IN
THOSE AREAS FOR THE MORNING...AND EVEN EXTENDED THEM SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BROADUS AREA. THAT IS BASED ON STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE 12
AND 13 UTC RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 18 UTC WHEN FORCING
FROM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER WEAKENS. THE SREF RUNS
FROM 03 AND 09 UTC PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE WITH POPS FALLING
OFF AFTER 18 UTC BEFORE A SECOND ROUND OF FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN THIS
FIRST BATCH OF FORCING. THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WILL FEED OFF OF A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE THANKS TO
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND IT WILL BE IN BETTER PROXIMITY
TO BILLINGS TO GIVE THE CITY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. THUS...THOUGH
WE DID INCREASE POPS IN BILLINGS TO 40 PERCENT BEFORE 21 UTC BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS /WHICH SUGGEST THERE WILL BE JUST A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE CITY THIS MORNING/...WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE
LIKELY POPS FOR BILLINGS RELEGATED TO THE POST-21 UTC TIME SO THAT
WE CAN FOCUS ON THE SECOND EVENT THERE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
LIKE THE RAP AND HRRR PICK UP ON THE STRONG GRADIENT IN RAIN WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE VERY NEAR BILLINGS THIS MORNING...AND THEY KEEP
MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE CITY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.
FINALLY...WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT IN FORECAST HIGHS WITH
THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD SHIELD TODAY. WE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY RISK FOR
SOME TEMPERATURE BUSTS TODAY. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN ZONAL ON FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION ON MONDAY. BROAD-BRUSHED LOW POPS
DURING THIS TIME. BRS
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH MODERATE GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BRS/SCHULTZ/CHURCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 035/049 039/061 036/050 037/063 042/064 046/064
6/R 63/O 00/U 12/W 11/U 11/U 12/W
LVM 057 029/051 033/060 030/052 033/060 037/058 039/060
3/R 62/S 01/U 12/W 11/U 11/U 22/W
HDN 055 037/050 035/065 035/053 035/064 041/065 045/066
8/R 63/O 00/U 12/W 01/U 10/U 12/W
MLS 055 033/046 034/062 036/048 036/061 041/063 046/063
6/R 31/B 00/U 22/W 01/U 10/U 12/W
4BQ 055 035/046 032/064 036/050 035/062 041/063 045/064
9/R 53/O 00/U 11/B 01/U 10/U 11/B
BHK 051 031/043 031/060 034/047 032/059 039/061 043/062
4/R 31/B 00/U 11/B 01/U 00/U 11/B
SHR 055 031/047 033/062 034/052 036/060 041/063 042/062
3/R 63/O 00/U 12/W 01/U 11/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY QUIET WX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NWD MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF PATCHY STRATUS LAYER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AT 02Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
ACCORDINGLY. GENERALLY OVC FROM MPV SOUTHWARD...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND IS CAUSING LARGE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AT KSLK HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL TO 34F AT
02Z...MEANWHILE REMAINS 51F AT BTV WITH SE WINDS AND 51F AT VSF
WITH LOW OVERCAST IN PLACE THERE. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT OCCASIONAL BINOVC WILL CONTINUE. LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY NEAR FREEZING AT
KSLK. LIGHT SOUTH TO SE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MVG NWD FROM NERN PA INTO S-CENTRAL NY PER
MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING OF FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED POPS/QPF ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SMALL
ENVELOPE OF DRY AIR ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST..WITH NEXT RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE/VORT DIVING TWD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ATTM.
WEAK PRE-FRNTAL VORT AND RIBBON OF MOISTURE WL LIFT ACRS OUR
WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING...WITH LLVL ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTING AROUND HIGH PRES IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS OUR EASTERN ZNS
MTNS TONIGHT. CLOUD GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS WL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT. RUC13 925MB TO 700MB RH PROGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS THRU THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WL
MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S...MAYBE A
FEW 30S NORTHERN ZNS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD BE PC WITH TEMPS IN
U30S DACKS TO 40S CPV/SLV.
FOR WEDNESDAY...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RIBBON OF
MID LVL RH WL ENTER THE SLV AROUND 16Z...BE ACRS THE DACKS BTWN
18Z-20Z...CPV AROUND 21Z...AND THRU VT BY 02Z THURS. NAM12 SHOWS
GOOD 925MB FGEN FORCING...GOOD 850 TO 700MB RH/OMEGA FIELDS...AND
PWS VALUES NEAR 0.75"...WHICH WL RESULT IN A 1 TO 3 HR WINDOW OF
SHOWERS. FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION WL KEEP QPF AMOUNT GENERALLY <0.25"...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
ACRS THE MTNS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS
ACRS THE SLV/CPV WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. PROGGED 85H SOUTHWEST FLW OF 35 TO 40 KNTS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
WL LIMIT QPF/POP CHCS ACRS THE CPV ON WEDS. WL TREND TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
NEAR 11C. THINKING M50S MTNS TO M60S VALLEYS...WITH WARMEST READINGS
AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS BEHIND SFC
COLD FRNT...BUT STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING LOW PRES WL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR. GIVEN...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW BTWN 925MB AND
850MB...THINKING BEST LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ON WEDS NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLW AND LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB RH...MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDS NIGHT...AS 85H TEMPS COOL BLW 0C. GFS SOUNDINGS AT JAY PEAK
SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY THURS
MORNING FROM SUGARBUSH TO MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SOUNDINGS
SHOW WELL MIXED BL WITH CAA ACRS OUR CWA...WL MENTION LOWS FROM
THE U20S MTNS TO U30S VALLEYS AND L40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
ON THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BY 18Z...WITH RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLW DEVELOPING BY 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW ENHANCED
850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING THE SLV BY 18Z THURS AND SPREADING TWD THE
CPV BY 00Z FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID WAA AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA
THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD SFC
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING..WITH HIGHEST POPS/QPF CONCENTRATED ACRS THE MTNS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
FOR THURSDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C...BUT INCREASE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING/MIXING...THINKING U40S NEK TO NEAR 60F
CPV/SLV. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS FROM APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND WARMING LLVL THERMAL
PROFILES ON THURS NIGHT...WL MENTION LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...TWD FRIDAY MORNING LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 2000 FT WL BECM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SNOW. HAVE MENTION A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE CWA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS WARM
FRNTL BOUNDARY SWING THRU THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA SLOWLY ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF CWA TRAVELING EAST THRU QUEBEC
INTO MONDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH EXITING SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LATEST ECMWF DIGS UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY KEEP PRECIP LONGER OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE LATEST
GFS BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH RIDGE FROM GREAT LKS REGION.
IMPACTS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...
FRIDAY...MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LGT -RW...EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER
HIR TRRN AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF WITH WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME --SW
POSSIBLE AT 1500-2000` OR HIR FOR A FEW HRS IN THE MORNING...BECM
ALL -RW BFR ENDING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...CWA WILL RADIATE OUT UNDER CLR SKIES
FRI NGT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S CWA-WIDE.
COLDER TEMPS IN THE HILLS OF DACKS NE VT. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM UP WITH HGHS INTO THE MID50S AS
SSW FLOW INCR AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRNT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LGT PRECIP/CLDS INCR OVER N NY SAT NGT
OVERSPREADING CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. POSITIONING OF WARM FRNT ON
GFS/ECMWF EXTENT OF ANY -SW THAT DEMELOP OVE RHIR TRRN BFR GOING TO
ALL -RW. SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THRU SUN/SUN NGT AS PARENT LOW
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR -RW OVER AREA
THRU PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY W/ FRNT LIFTING N OF
CWA...PRECIP WILL SCT OUT SOME AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AREA. WILL BE
KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR -RW TRANSITIONING TO LGT -SW OVER HIR AS CD
AIR FILTERS INTO AREA UNDER NW. FOR NOW WITH MDL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT SL CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED BLW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES WITH RIDGE
OVERHD...AND INCR TO AT OR ABV NORMAL CONDITIONS DUE TO WARMER
AIRMASS WORKING INTO AREA W/ FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWERING CEILINGS WILL CREATE A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. VFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT/SLK
OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD ON LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER AT MPV DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
BTV/PBG/MSS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND 12Z FOR RUT/MPV...BUT MAY TAKE LONGER AT SLK AS
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS
DEVELOP THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KNOTS AT
TIMES AT BTV/PBG/MSS/SLK. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 18-00Z AT
MSS/SLK AND 21Z-03Z ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY AT MPV. PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR TRENDING MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ON TAP FOR THE PARTS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
955 PM UPDATE...COOL/MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY HAS REINFORCED CLOUD
COVER ALL AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEE NO REASON FOR
THE CLOUDS TO BREAK, SO HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS MARKEDLY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT RUC13 SUPPORTS THE THICK CLOUD COVER
HOLDING ITS POSITION THROUGH 12Z, AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING THROUGH
STEUBEN/YATES.
330 PM UPDATE...TUFF FCST ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, EVEN IN A BENIGN WX
PATTERN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YR. HIPRES IS SITTING UP
OVR NEW BRUNSWICK AND FEEDING SERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPSTREAM CDFNT APPROACHES, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCRS OVRNGT AND RESULT IN STRONGER SERLY FLOW. AS OF 18Z CLDS ARE
ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE BINGHAMTON AREA AND THEY HV ENCROACHED AS
FAR AS SRN BROOME CNTY. THESE CLDS WL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH
AND WEST OVRNGT. WITH WAA OCCURRING AHD OF THE BNDRY AND EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR LOWS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPR 40S.
THESE CLDS WL ULTIMATELY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT
SNDGS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AT
KELM AND KITH AND A STRATUS LYR PRESENT AT KBGM. THESE SNDGS LOOK
EERILY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z RAOB AT KPIT THIS MRNG IN WHICH THEY
DROPPED DOWN TO 1/8SM. HWVR IF THESE CLDS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SRN
TIER ALL BETS ARE OFF ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. THUS, HV NOT
MENTIONED ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THIS REASON.
HWVR SERLY FLOW IN THE OROGRAPHIC AREAS WL LKLY LEAD TO LOW CLDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT IN THE POCONOS AND WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...CDFNT WL COME RACING THRU ON WED WITH SCTD
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE BNDRY THRU THE CWA. H8 TEMPS RISE AHD OF
THIS FNT TO +5C WITH WAA AHD OF THE BNDRY WHICH WUD YIELD HIGHS IN
THE LWR 60S. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE WEST BHND THE FNT.
LK EFFECT SHOWERS WL KICK IN ON WED NGT WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT
BHND THE FNT. STEERING LAYER FLOW OF 270-290 DEGREES WL SPREAD SCTD
SHOWERS INTO NWRN ONEIDA/NRN MADISON AND NRN ONONDAGA COUNTIES WITH
QPF AMNTS OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES. AFT 06Z WINDS WL WEAKEN AND VARY FM
WRLY TO NWRLY AND AREA OF SHOWERS MAY EXTND INTO NRN OTSEGO CNTYS BY
MRNG.
DRG THE DAY THURSDAY, WINDS SHIFT ARND TO A SWRLY DIRECTION BRINGING
LINGERING LK EFFECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE CWA. NEXT IN A SERIES OF
CDFNTS WL APPCH THE AREA THUR NGT INTO FRI MRNG. EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
WL BE PRESENT AHD OF THE FNT...KEEPING OVRNT MINS ARND 40F. CHC POPS
WL MV INTO THE NRN ZONES BY 12Z FRI...CONTG IN NY STATE THRU 18Z BFR
FADING OUT AS UL WV WEAKENS AND MOST OF THE LIFT GOES OFF TO THE
NORTH IN CANADA AND SHEARS ITSELF OUT. SKIES WL CLR DRG THE AFTN AS
SFC HIPRES BUILDS OVR TOP OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PTRN OVER THE MEDIUM RNG WITH S/WV`S PASSING EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS W/ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE XPCTD TO BE
CNTRD OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATER FRI NGT...AND CLEARING SKIES
MAY ALLOW FOR AN AREA-WIDE FROST/FREEZE AND AN OFFICIAL END TO THE
GROWING SEASON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD TO THE CST BY SUNDAY
EVNG...WITH A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED ON SAT. THE NXT S/WVS
APRCH FROM THE GTLAKES/OH VLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NGT WITH MORE -SHRA.
MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHO A STRAY -SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT SO WE RETAINED THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING OVER MOST TERMINALS. MAIN
QUESTION AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS JUST HOW LOW
CIGS WILL GO AFTER 06Z. NEAR SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW BGM TO FALL BELOW IFR
THRESHOLDS THE SOONEST. AT AVP...SOUTHWEST WINDS TRADITIONALLY RESULT
IN LOW-END MVFR CIGS AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SUGGESTION WITH THE
00Z ISSUANCE. THE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR BOTH BGM AND
AVP HINGES ON POSSIBLE -DZ ACTIVITY WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOWER CIGS
THAN CURRENTLY FCST. MEANWHILE AT BOTH ITH AND RME...SOUTHEAST
WINDS TRADITIONALLY FAVOR LITTLE IFR AT BOTH SITES AND HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN MVFR MENTION AT BOTH SITES. MARINE DECK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD BOTH SYR AND ELM OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WE
CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPING SHWRS
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HRS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR...XCPT PSBL MVFR AT RME/SYR DUE TO LAKE CLDS/SHRA.
THU...VFR...BUT MVFR PSBL THU MRNG AT RME.
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA...OTRW IMPRVMNT
TO VFR.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
755 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 748 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWD MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF STRATUS ACROSS
THE REGION AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. CURRENTLY
SOME BREAKS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING. LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MVG
NWD FROM NERN PA INTO S-CENTRAL NY PER MOSAIC COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING OF FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED POPS/QPF ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SMALL
ENVELOPE OF DRY AIR ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST..WITH NEXT RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE/VORT DIVING TWD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ATTM.
WEAK PRE-FRNTAL VORT AND RIBBON OF MOISTURE WL LIFT ACRS OUR
WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING...WITH LLVL ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTING AROUND HIGH PRES IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS OUR EASTERN ZNS
MTNS TONIGHT. CLOUD GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS WL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT. RUC13 925MB TO 700MB RH PROGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS THRU THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WL
MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S...MAYBE A
FEW 30S NORTHERN ZNS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD BE PC WITH TEMPS IN
U30S DACKS TO 40S CPV/SLV.
FOR WEDNESDAY...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RIBBON OF
MID LVL RH WL ENTER THE SLV AROUND 16Z...BE ACRS THE DACKS BTWN
18Z-20Z...CPV AROUND 21Z...AND THRU VT BY 02Z THURS. NAM12 SHOWS
GOOD 925MB FGEN FORCING...GOOD 850 TO 700MB RH/OMEGA FIELDS...AND
PWS VALUES NEAR 0.75"...WHICH WL RESULT IN A 1 TO 3 HR WINDOW OF
SHOWERS. FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION WL KEEP QPF AMOUNT GENERALLY <0.25"...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
ACRS THE MTNS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS
ACRS THE SLV/CPV WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. PROGGED 85H SOUTHWEST FLW OF 35 TO 40 KNTS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
WL LIMIT QPF/POP CHCS ACRS THE CPV ON WEDS. WL TREND TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
NEAR 11C. THINKING M50S MTNS TO M60S VALLEYS...WITH WARMEST READINGS
AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS BEHIND SFC
COLD FRNT...BUT STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING LOW PRES WL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR. GIVEN...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW BTWN 925MB AND
850MB...THINKING BEST LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ON WEDS NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLW AND LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB RH...MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDS NIGHT...AS 85H TEMPS COOL BLW 0C. GFS SOUNDINGS AT JAY PEAK
SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY THURS
MORNING FROM SUGARBUSH TO MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SOUNDINGS
SHOW WELL MIXED BL WITH CAA ACRS OUR CWA...WL MENTION LOWS FROM
THE U20S MTNS TO U30S VALLEYS AND L40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
ON THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BY 18Z...WITH RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLW DEVELOPING BY 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW ENHANCED
850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING THE SLV BY 18Z THURS AND SPREADING TWD THE
CPV BY 00Z FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID WAA AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA
THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD SFC
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING..WITH HIGHEST POPS/QPF CONCENTRATED ACRS THE MTNS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
FOR THURSDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C...BUT INCREASE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING/MIXING...THINKING U40S NEK TO NEAR 60F
CPV/SLV. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS FROM APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND WARMING LLVL THERMAL
PROFILES ON THURS NIGHT...WL MENTION LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...TWD FRIDAY MORNING LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 2000 FT WL BECM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SNOW. HAVE MENTION A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE CWA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS WARM
FRNTL BOUNDARY SWING THRU THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA SLOWLY ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF CWA TRAVELING EAST THRU QUEBEC
INTO MONDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH EXITING SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LATEST ECMWF DIGS UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY KEEP PRECIP LONGER OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE LATEST
GFS BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH RIDGE FROM GREAT LKS REGION.
IMPACTS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...
FRIDAY...MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LGT -RW...EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER
HIR TRRN AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF WITH WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME --SW
POSSIBLE AT 1500-2000` OR HIR FOR A FEW HRS IN THE MORNING...BECM
ALL -RW BFR ENDING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...CWA WILL RADIATE OUT UNDER CLR SKIES
FRI NGT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S CWA-WIDE.
COLDER TEMPS IN THE HILLS OF DACKS NE VT. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM UP WITH HGHS INTO THE MID50S AS
SSW FLOW INCR AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRNT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LGT PRECIP/CLDS INCR OVER N NY SAT NGT
OVERSPREADING CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. POSITIONING OF WARM FRNT ON
GFS/ECMWF EXTENT OF ANY -SW THAT DEMELOP OVE RHIR TRRN BFR GOING TO
ALL -RW. SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THRU SUN/SUN NGT AS PARENT LOW
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR -RW OVER AREA
THRU PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY W/ FRNT LIFTING N OF
CWA...PRECIP WILL SCT OUT SOME AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AREA. WILL BE
KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR -RW TRANSITIONING TO LGT -SW OVER HIR AS CD
AIR FILTERS INTO AREA UNDER NW. FOR NOW WITH MDL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT SL CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED BLW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES WITH RIDGE
OVERHD...AND INCR TO AT OR ABV NORMAL CONDITIONS DUE TO WARMER
AIRMASS WORKING INTO AREA W/ FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWERING CEILINGS WILL CREATE A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. VFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT/SLK
OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD ON LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER AT MPV DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
BTV/PBG/MSS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND 12Z FOR RUT/MPV...BUT MAY TAKE LONGER AT SLK AS
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS
DEVELOP THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KNOTS AT
TIMES AT BTV/PBG/MSS/SLK. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 18-00Z AT
MSS/SLK AND 21Z-03Z ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY AT MPV. PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR TRENDING MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
748 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING OF FROPA
AND ASSOCIATED POPS/QPF ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
SMALL ENVELOPE OF DRY AIR ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST..WITH NEXT RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE/VORT DIVING TWD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ATTM.
WEAK PRE-FRNTAL VORT AND RIBBON OF MOISTURE WL LIFT ACRS OUR
WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING...WITH LLVL ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTING AROUND HIGH PRES IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS OUR EASTERN ZNS
MTNS TONIGHT. CLOUD GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS WL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT. RUC13 925MB TO 700MB RH PROGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS THRU THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WL
MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S...MAYBE A
FEW 30S NORTHERN ZNS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD BE PC WITH TEMPS IN
U30S DACKS TO 40S CPV/SLV.
FOR WEDNESDAY...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RIBBON OF
MID LVL RH WL ENTER THE SLV AROUND 16Z...BE ACRS THE DACKS BTWN
18Z-20Z...CPV AROUND 21Z...AND THRU VT BY 02Z THURS. NAM12 SHOWS
GOOD 925MB FGEN FORCING...GOOD 850 TO 700MB RH/OMEGA FIELDS...AND
PWS VALUES NEAR 0.75"...WHICH WL RESULT IN A 1 TO 3 HR WINDOW OF
SHOWERS. FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION WL KEEP QPF AMOUNT GENERALLY <0.25"...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
ACRS THE MTNS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS
ACRS THE SLV/CPV WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. PROGGED 85H SOUTHWEST FLW OF 35 TO 40 KNTS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
WL LIMIT QPF/POP CHCS ACRS THE CPV ON WEDS. WL TREND TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
NEAR 11C. THINKING M50S MTNS TO M60S VALLEYS...WITH WARMEST READINGS
AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS BEHIND SFC
COLD FRNT...BUT STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING LOW PRES WL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR. GIVEN...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW BTWN 925MB AND
850MB...THINKING BEST LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ON WEDS NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLW AND LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB RH...MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDS NIGHT...AS 85H TEMPS COOL BLW 0C. GFS SOUNDINGS AT JAY PEAK
SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY THURS
MORNING FROM SUGARBUSH TO MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SOUNDINGS
SHOW WELL MIXED BL WITH CAA ACRS OUR CWA...WL MENTION LOWS FROM
THE U20S MTNS TO U30S VALLEYS AND L40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
ON THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BY 18Z...WITH RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLW DEVELOPING BY 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW ENHANCED
850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING THE SLV BY 18Z THURS AND SPREADING TWD THE
CPV BY 00Z FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID WAA AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA
THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD SFC
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING..WITH HIGHEST POPS/QPF CONCENTRATED ACRS THE MTNS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
FOR THURSDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C...BUT INCREASE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING/MIXING...THINKING U40S NEK TO NEAR 60F
CPV/SLV. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS FROM APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND WARMING LLVL THERMAL
PROFILES ON THURS NIGHT...WL MENTION LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...TWD FRIDAY MORNING LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 2000 FT WL BECM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SNOW. HAVE MENTION A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE CWA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS WARM
FRNTL BOUNDARY SWING THRU THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA SLOWLY ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF CWA TRAVELING EAST THRU QUEBEC
INTO MONDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH EXITING SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LATEST ECMWF DIGS UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY KEEP PRECIP LONGER OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE LATEST
GFS BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH RIDGE FROM GREAT LKS REGION.
IMPACTS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...
FRIDAY...MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LGT -RW...EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER
HIR TRRN AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF WITH WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME --SW
POSSIBLE AT 1500-2000` OR HIR FOR A FEW HRS IN THE MORNING...BECM
ALL -RW BFR ENDING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...CWA WILL RADIATE OUT UNDER CLR SKIES
FRI NGT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S CWA-WIDE.
COLDER TEMPS IN THE HILLS OF DACKS NE VT. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM UP WITH HGHS INTO THE MID50S AS
SSW FLOW INCR AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRNT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LGT PRECIP/CLDS INCR OVER N NY SAT NGT
OVERSPREADING CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. POSITIONING OF WARM FRNT ON
GFS/ECMWF EXTENT OF ANY -SW THAT DEMELOP OVE RHIR TRRN BFR GOING TO
ALL -RW. SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THRU SUN/SUN NGT AS PARENT LOW
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR -RW OVER AREA
THRU PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY W/ FRNT LIFTING N OF
CWA...PRECIP WILL SCT OUT SOME AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AREA. WILL BE
KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR -RW TRANSITIONING TO LGT -SW OVER HIR AS CD
AIR FILTERS INTO AREA UNDER NW. FOR NOW WITH MDL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT SL CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED BLW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES WITH RIDGE
OVERHD...AND INCR TO AT OR ABV NORMAL CONDITIONS DUE TO WARMER
AIRMASS WORKING INTO AREA W/ FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWERING CEILINGS WILL CREATE A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. VFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT/SLK
OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD ON LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER AT MPV DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
BTV/PBG/MSS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND 12Z FOR RUT/MPV...BUT MAY TAKE LONGER AT SLK AS
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS
DEVELOP THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KNOTS AT
TIMES AT BTV/PBG/MSS/SLK. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 18-00Z AT
MSS/SLK AND 21Z-03Z ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY AT MPV. PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR TRENDING MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO FALL TO
FREEZING TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE LAKE CLOUDINESS KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIMITED FROST AND FREEZE THREAT. ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION EARLY
THIS MORNING...PLAN ON CANCELLING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THE
MORNING ISSUANCE. COLDER NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT...WITH A FREEZE
WATCH PLANNED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN TRYING TO ORGANIZE AS FLOW BACKS..WITH THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE. LATEST HRRR AND WRF
SUGGESTING A SEVERAL HOURS PERIOD THIS MORNING WHEN THE LAKE
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND MAYBE EVEN LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO NIAGARA FALLS...HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORELINE AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.
THE LAKE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY NOON TIME IF NOT EARLIER AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER GREATLY WITH THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE ACTIVITY HERE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DISORGANIZED WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND OSWEGO...BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF SUGGESTING THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BEFORE TAKING ON AN UPTICK AS THE
FLOW BACKS AND FOCUSES A MORE ORGANIZED BAND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY/NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY MID DAY. SIMILAR TO THE ACTIVITY
OFF ERIE...A DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OR SO AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS.
ONCE THE LAKE ACTIVITY ENDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
LEFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN 0C AND -2C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD
SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES...AS WELL AS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FREEZE
WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER FROST ADVISORIES AROUND THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT RATHER CHILLY WITH AREAS OF
FROST EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z. AFTER THAT...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW REACHES JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT...ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR IN
THE MORNING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. ALSO
EXPECT RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR FACILITATES AN EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTACT EAST OF THE LAKES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
DEEPENS. THE MODELS DO SHOW A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. AREA TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE INLAND VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSE TO
THE LAKES WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNLIKE A WEEK AGO...GLOBAL MODELS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL START COOL...THOUGH WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE...WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE MAINLY SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES
TO INCREASE...SUPPORTING THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FETCH OFF THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
LATER ON FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...WHILE SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERCAST AS SFC WINDS
VEER TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...850S DROPPING TO -4C OR SO...FRIDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS MAY HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP ACROSS WNY WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE MAY EVEN HAVE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS
THE REGION.
ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM AIRMASS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST
AND ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
THE LIKELY DAY WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT AND RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL
FAVOR CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHC
POPS TO THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S...MAYBE EVEN SOME 60S ACROSS WARMER AREAS...WHILE ON SUNDAY MOST
AREAS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BACKING FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH RESIDUAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THOUGH
LAKE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OFF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE TIME BEING...LAKE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND FOCUS TOWARD THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 15Z. THE LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS SHOULD END BY
MID DAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON....LEAVING VFR CIGS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS LIKELY REQUIRING MARINE FLAGS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ007-008-011>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
401 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO FALL TO
FREEZING TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE LAKE CLOUDINESS KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIMITED FROST AND FREEZE THREAT. ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION EARLY
THIS MORNING...PLAN ON CANCELLING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THE
MORNING ISSUANCE. COLDER NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT...WITH A FREEZE
WATCH PLANNED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN TRYING TO ORGANIZE AS FLOW BACKS..WITH THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE. LATEST HRRR AND WRF
SUGGESTING A SEVERAL HOURS PERIOD THIS MORNING WHEN THE LAKE
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND MAYBE EVEN LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO NIAGARA FALLS...HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORELINE AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.
THE LAKE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY NOON TIME IF NOT EARLIER AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER GREATLY WITH THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE ACTIVITY HERE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DISORGANIZED WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND OSWEGO...BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF SUGGESTING THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BEFORE TAKING ON AN UPTICK AS THE
FLOW BACKS AND FOCUSES A MORE ORGANIZED BAND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY/NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY MID DAY. SIMILAR TO THE ACTIVITY
OFF ERIE...A DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OR SO AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS.
ONCE THE LAKE ACTIVITY ENDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
LEFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN 0C AND -2C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD
SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES...AS WELL AS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FREEZE
WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER FROST ADVISORIES AROUND THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT RATHER CHILLY WITH AREAS OF
FROST EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z. AFTER THAT...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW REACHES JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT...ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR IN
THE MORNING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. ALSO
EXPECT RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR FACILITATES AN EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTACT EAST OF THE LAKES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
DEEPENS. THE MODELS DO SHOW A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. AREA TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE INLAND VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSE TO
THE LAKES WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNLIKE A WEEK AGO...GLOBAL MODELS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL START COOL...THOUGH WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE...WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE MAINLY SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES
TO INCREASE...SUPPORTING THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FETCH OFF THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
LATER ON FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...WHILE SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERCAST AS SFC WINDS
VEER TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...850S DROPPING TO -4C OR SO...FRIDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS MAY HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP ACROSS WNY WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE MAY EVEN HAVE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS
THE REGION.
ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM AIRMASS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST
AND ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
THE LIKELY DAY WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT AND RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL
FAVOR CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHC
POPS TO THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S...MAYBE EVEN SOME 60S ACROSS WARMER AREAS...WHILE ON SUNDAY MOST
AREAS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ONGOING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. BAND OFF LAKE
ERIE IS WEAK ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...BUT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD KBUF/KIAG TOWARD 10Z. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A BETTER
ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. FZY IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
ON MONDAY ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIFT
NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND DISSIPATE...WITH MOST OF THIS BEING
VFR. OTHERWISE ANY MORNING SUNSHINE FILLING IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS WITH VFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS LIKELY REQUIRING MARINE FLAGS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ007-008-011>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1028 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK POPS FOR ONGOING RADAR TRENDS AND TO
LOWER HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RADAR LOOP
SHOWS THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE RED LAKE
FALLS/THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA WITH SOME TRAILING LIGHT PRECIP
EXTENDING DOWN WEST OF FARGO. RAP HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY WELL WITH
THIS PRECIP AND FOLLOWED IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADJUSTED
POPS UP TO LIKELY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHTLY LESSER PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PRECIP IS
LIGHTER AND COVERAGE IS LESS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION TO THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN. LOWERED HIGHS A TINY BIT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THICKER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM WARMING QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
A BAND OF MAINLY VFR TO SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT NEAR DVL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH AND LOWER CIGS HERE NEAR THE SFC LOW
CENTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY INTO TUE.
FOR TODAY...STRONG LIFTING PER OMEGA/ISENTROPIC FIELDS WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE
BEST FORCING AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN 1/3
OF THE REGION. EXPECT ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME AREAS
IN THE NORTH GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE SW...AROUND 60 AND MUCH COOLER IN THE
NORTH NEAR PRECIP AND CLOUDS ALL DAY. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30KT TO MIX EFFICIENTLY. SOME AREAS
NEAR THE DVL BASIN COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING FOR THE DAY CREW
TO MONITOR.
TONIGHT...EXPECT A WRAPAROUND DEFORMATION TROUGH AXIS TO ROTATE
INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH SOME RAIN INITIALLY...MIXING
WITH SNOW AFTER 06Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THOUGH WITH
TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT A COLD DAY WITH MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IN
THE MORNING AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS AROUND
40 NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH WITH A COLD LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON. IF
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CAN ADVECT INTO REGION...THEN IT MAY
EVEN REMAIN A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
COULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
FOR WED...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP BEGINNING
AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND CHANGING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND BE COLDEST
IN THE NORTH AND WARMEST SOUTH...AND HINGE LARGELY ON TIMING OF
PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. KEPT
THE S CHC POPS IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
WAVE IN THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE 500MB FLOW IN TRANSITION
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESSES DEVELOPING THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE DESSERT SW AND BY FRIDAY
DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF ITS PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY REACHING THE S RRV BY
SATURDAY. KEPT CHC POPS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS RAIN MAYBE
LIKELY IN THE S. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE EXPECTED HIGHS ON
THURSDAY OF MID 40S TO MID 50S...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MID
OCTOBER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1018 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. FROM TIME TO TIME...DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH COLD FRONTS THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND ANOTHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND BOTH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THIS COMING
WEEKEND AS A STORM PUSHES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUD EDGE HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN ERODING A BIT BACK TO THE
EAST. THE DIVIDING WILL PROBABLY WAGGLE E-W THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NAM AND RUC DO GENERATE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT TOTALLY LET GO OF THE BECOMING-MORE-
CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH MORNING FOR THE WRN HILLS. THICKER CLOUDS
OVER THE POCONOS/ERN COS COULD STILL MAKE SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHIPS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF TO THE NE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE IN THE MORNING..ENDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR DZ AND
ALLOWING SOME CLEARING IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT AND ASSOCD
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A MORE VIGOROUS AND
SHARP UPPER TROF WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
WESTERN AREAS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WED. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NW...AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DO EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS THROUGH THE 20S IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FROPA. CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS. FURTHER
SE...READINGS LIKELY TO REACH NR SEASONAL VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE
M/U60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.
A FEW SHOWERS ON WED WITH A COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SC AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PA EARLY
WED NIGHT. COMBINATION OF WIND AND CLDS SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE. DID UP
TEMPS SOME.
DRY WEATHER FOR THU...DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...
AS THE SOURCE OF THE AIRMASS IS NOT REAL WARM.
COMBINATION OF SW FLOW...INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD PREVENT FROST...FREEZE ISSUES THU NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPERAD FROST...FREEZE
ISSUES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
A MODERATING TREND FOR SAT...BUT THE REAL MILD TEMPS WILL
BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A MODERATE LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE LAKES. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHEST CHC ACROSS THE NW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE TOWARD WED. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN IS MORE WEST...EAST...NOT LOOKING AS COLD AS THE
CURRENT WEEK...CLOSER TO NORMAL...ENJOY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION IS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF MY AREA WITH THE LOWER
SUSQ. MAINTAINING MVFR CIGS UNDER A LLVL INVERSION. MKDT AND KLNS
WILL FLIRT WITH MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE DAY. CIGS LIKELY REMAIN
BROKEN ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENHANCES LIFT AND PRODUCES SPOTTY DRIZZLE
OVER SOUTHEAST PA AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY AFTER
08Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR EARLY. THEN VFR...WITH MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR TO MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
638 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RUC AND NAM HIGH-RES RUNS PAINT A MUCH-CLOUDIER PICTURE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT THAN PREV RUNS DID. SRLY FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO
BRING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND AS FAR W AS
JST/FIG/BFD. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SET QUITE YET. MUCH DRY AIR
OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE COAST WILL
TRY TO BALANCE THIS POTENTIAL FLY IN THE FORECAST OINTMENT. WILL
BEND THE FCST MORE-CLOUDY IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST BUT HOLD ONTO
THE REST OF THE FCST DETAILS FOR THE TIME-BEING. CERTAINLY...IF
THE LOW CLOUDS DO REINVIGORATE...THE TEMPS WOULD NEED TO BE
BROUGHT UP AND THE FROST/FREEZE WORRIES WOULD JUST MELT AWAY
/BAD PUN/. WILL REVISIT THIS TREND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD BURN AWAY THROUGH THE
MORNING...AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE WEAK SUN
AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK OVER THE CLOUDS. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE SMALL...EARLY AND OVER THE FAR SE...OTHERWISE WE WILL BE DRYING
OUT COURTESY OF THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNSHINE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BUT IT WILL STAY COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN THE 50S. THIS IS ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCELLENT MDL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM AND ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVR
THE N MTNS.
WED NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUNNY/DRY WX THURSDAY...WHEN ALL MDL DATA
TRACKS SFC RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA.
THU NIGHT MAY FEATURE FROST...FREEZE ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM NW PA...IF THE GRADIENT AND CLD COVER IS SLOW
TO INCREASE.
ANOTHER MOISTURE- STARVED COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY...WITH
FAIRLY LOW POPS.
FRI NITE COULD BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS HIGH PRES WITH LOW PWAT
AIR DRIFTS OVR THE STATE.
MODELS HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WARMER WX APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL PA...IS DISSIPATING DUE TO THE WEAK RIDGE THAT IS NOW
MOVING TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO BE WEAK AND REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF PA...NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVER MUCH OF THE SERN PORTION OF PA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS LIKELY FROM SEG SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
BROUGHT ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BY LATE EVENING. BFD HAS A
CHANCE...DUE TO BEING IN THE DRIEST AIR...TO AVOID ANY MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE...FROM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PROPAGATING TROUGH...FOR BFD TO SEE
REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-037.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025-026-033>035-041-042-045-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
828 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE CANCELED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. CLOUD COVER PRETTY MUCH
THREW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING MACHINE AND
KEPT US CHILLY BUT FROST/FREEZE FREE IN MOST AREAS.
MEANWHILE NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGES SPREADING CLOUDS
TO THE NE INTO THE REGION. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR INTO THE
FCST AREA THE RAIN WILL SPREAD LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN
FROM JUST SOUTH OF STATE COLLEGE EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BY NIGHTFALL. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS A BIT AS LATER
GUIDANCE CREEPS IN...BUT CURRENT PRECIP PICTURE LOOKS REASONABLE
SO FAR.
LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL TODAY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM 50-55F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO NR 90 PCT ACROSS LANCASTER CO THIS
EVENING...WHEN WAVE MAKES CLOSEST PASS TO PA. MDL DATA INDICATING
BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG 8-7H FGEN FORCING BTWN 00Z-06Z ACROSS
THIS AREA AND A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF YIELDS
TOTALS OF BTWN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF A
KILLING FREEZE. MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM SATL IMAGERY BOTH SUPPORT A
SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE MOISTURE WITH CLEARING SKIES LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. SFC RIDGE OVR THE AREA AND
PLACEMENT OF GEFS NEGATIVE PWAT/8H TEMP ANOMALIES TARGET THE NW
MTNS FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS. SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE...BUT WILL START WITH A WATCH AND LET DAY SHIFT
DECIDE WHETHER A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED. ACROSS THE RIDGE/VALLEY
REGION...HAVE ISSUED FROST ADV FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE L/M
30S.
SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR SHOULD PRODUCE MSUNNY SKIES AND LGT
WINDS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN PA...WHERE LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT-BKN
CU. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE
WITH AFTN READINGS MOSTLY IN THE U50S TO L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXCELLENT MDL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM AND ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVR
THE N MTNS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUNNY/DRY WX THURSDAY...WHEN ALL MDL DATA
TRACKS SFC RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFS DEVELOP WITH
NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FOR LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATE IT
WILL BE ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM...SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY A
LOW CHC OF SHRA ON FRIDAY.
FRI NITE COULD BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS HIGH PRES/LOW PWAT AIR
DRIFTS OVR THE STATE. HOWEVER...WARMER WX APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY QUITE
HIGH BY THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION PRODUCING AN AREA OF
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AND INFRINGING ON PARTS OF CENTRAL
MTNS /KUNV-KIPT/ AS WELL EARLY THIS AM. THIS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO
SE COUNTIES /KMDT-KLNS/ BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. THOUGH SFC LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF PA...NORTHERN
EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD GETS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PERSISTS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z...BUT IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MVFR FOG
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...IFR CIGS DEVELOPING SE WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS. MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
TUE...MVFR/IFR EARLY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING.
WED...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THU-FRI...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034-035-041-042-045-046-049-050.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1013 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT AS TEMPS NOT
INCREASING NEAR AS FAST AS EXPECTED. WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK HAVE DECREASED MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FOR MOST AREAS. A BIT OF CLEARING IS NOTED RIGHT ALONG THE
COASTLINE HOWEVER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT FARTHER SOUTH.
SATELLITE TREND WOULD INDICATE IT TO ONE BE LIMITED
BREAKS...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE TOO SURPRISED IF AN AREA OF SCT CLOUDS
OPENED UP FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING COASTAL AREAS TO WARM
A BIT MORE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPADTED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHANGES.
MARINE...WITH WINDS STILL LINGERING AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND THE RUC MODEL INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CHOSEN TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SOUTHERN
OPEN WATER AREAS UNTIL 4PM. SEAS ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH THE 20
BUOY STILL REPORTING 7 FEET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MVFR VSBY HAVE DVLPD THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE VCT AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL AVIATION
IMPACT AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE VCT AND CRP AREAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE
SAME FOR ALI BY MID MORNING AND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
LRD. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BECOME SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE VCT AREA...BUT THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP
THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT BUT
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF BR OUT OF THE TAF`S FOR NOW AS A STRATUS
DECK MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PCLDY THIS AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS S
TX. WEAK TO MOD NLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY BUT STILL GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AREA WIDE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO USHER HIGHER DEWPOINTS
INTO S TX THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER MN
TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A MIX OF STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS WAA TAKES PLACE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH...COULDN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE...KEPT SILENT
5-10 POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS MOVG S
ACROSS CENTRAL TX...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH S TX. THUS...NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP EITHER.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING
FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A MOD TO STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT CAUTION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BY THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO INCREASE AROUND START OF LONG TERM PERIOD.
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE STRATIFICATION OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER TUES NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORK THEIR WAY NNWRD. A FEW MAY CROSS
ONSHORE AND AFFECT COASTAL AREAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WED. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE. SBCAPES
INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...LI OF -5 TO -6 ARE EXPECTED...AND
MESOSCALE LOWLEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES WOULD BE FOCUS OF INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE
LACKING WITH NAM/CMC INDICATING INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES...ECMWF
A LITTLE MORE MOIST...AND GFS RATHER BULLISH ON PRECIP WED. FOR NOW
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA FOR DAYTIME
WED. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO WANE. REPEAT SCENARIO EXPECTED
EACH DAY DURING REST OF WORK WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PARKED OVER
WEST GULF PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING S TX.
RIDGING FLATTENS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF SW CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS PROG TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDIEST DAYS CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND
WHEN BEST MIXING OF STRONGEST LLJ IS PROG TO OCCUR. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF WORK WEEK WHEN RIDGING
IS THE STRONGEST. TEMPS SHOULD THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE FLATTENS. MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
TUESDAY NIGHT THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA OCCURS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE EXTENDED IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 65 87 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 71 62 85 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 72 66 90 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 72 64 87 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 72 67 82 75 88 / 10 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 70 62 87 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 74 66 87 74 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 72 69 83 76 87 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
955 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...UPADTED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHANGES.
&&
.MARINE...WITH WINDS STILL LINGERING AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND THE RUC MODEL INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CHOSEN TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SOUTHERN
OPEN WATER AREAS UNTIL 4PM. SEAS ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH THE 20
BUOY STILL REPORTING 7 FEET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MVFR VSBY HAVE DVLPD THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE VCT AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL AVIATION
IMPACT AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE VCT AND CRP AREAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE
SAME FOR ALI BY MID MORNING AND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
LRD. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BECOME SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE VCT AREA...BUT THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP
THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT BUT
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF BR OUT OF THE TAF`S FOR NOW AS A STRATUS
DECK MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PCLDY THIS AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS S
TX. WEAK TO MOD NLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY BUT STILL GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AREA WIDE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO USHER HIGHER DEWPOINTS
INTO S TX THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER MN
TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A MIX OF STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS WAA TAKES PLACE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH...COULDN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE...KEPT SILENT
5-10 POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS MOVG S
ACROSS CENTRAL TX...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH S TX. THUS...NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP EITHER.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING
FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A MOD TO STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT CAUTION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BY THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO INCREASE AROUND START OF LONG TERM PERIOD.
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE STRATIFICATION OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER TUES NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORK THEIR WAY NNWRD. A FEW MAY CROSS
ONSHORE AND AFFECT COASTAL AREAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WED. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE. SBCAPES
INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...LI OF -5 TO -6 ARE EXPECTED...AND
MESOSCALE LOWLEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES WOULD BE FOCUS OF INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE
LACKING WITH NAM/CMC INDICATING INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES...ECMWF
A LITTLE MORE MOIST...AND GFS RATHER BULLISH ON PRECIP WED. FOR NOW
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA FOR DAYTIME
WED. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO WANE. REPEAT SCENARIO EXPECTED
EACH DAY DURING REST OF WORK WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PARKED OVER
WEST GULF PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING S TX.
RIDGING FLATTENS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF SW CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS PROG TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDIEST DAYS CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND
WHEN BEST MIXING OF STRONGEST LLJ IS PROG TO OCCUR. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF WORK WEEK WHEN RIDGING
IS THE STRONGEST. TEMPS SHOULD THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE FLATTENS. MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
TUESDAY NIGHT THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA OCCURS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE EXTENDED IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 65 87 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 73 62 85 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 74 66 90 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 74 64 87 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 74 67 82 75 88 / 10 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 72 62 87 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 66 87 74 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 69 83 76 87 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
SC/70...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TROUGHING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. THE FIRST IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 998MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. DPVA
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT HAS SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z
MPX SOUNDING AS WELL AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 25-40
PERCENT RANGE HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRY DESPITE LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...NOTED BY
850MB TEMPS PER THE RAP THAT HAVE CLIMBED TO 4-6C AFTER STARTING OFF
AT 1-3C ACCORDING TO 12Z RAOBS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHING SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF NOTE...WHICH LOOKS QUITE POTENT IN WATER
VAPOR...IS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A 100-120 KT JET NEAR 250MB WAS
LOCATED ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE POTENT SHORTWAVE IN SASKATCHEWAN MODELS
SHOW DROPPING DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFYING AND
TURNING NEUTRAL TILT AS IT CROSSES MINNESOTA INTO FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
TONIGHT...IT HELPS TO SLOW DOWN THE CURRENT EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS. IN FACT...BY 12Z...THE FRONT MAY JUST
BE GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MN. AS SUCH...A MILD NIGHT COMPARED TO
WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN RECENTLY IS ON TAP TONIGHT...AIDED BY A
CONTINUING SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THEREFORE...STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE VERY
QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF THE SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESS. WHEN HEADING INTO
THE COLD SEASON...MOST PRECIPITATION FALLS POST-COLD FRONTAL BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR. IN THIS CASE...THE
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WHICH DOES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT ENDS
UP STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE CONFINED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MOSTLY LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
1/3 OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCES IN THE 20-40
RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN GETTING THE AIR SATURATED AND THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA. NOW THINGS ARE A LOT DIFFERENT ON TUESDAY. THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ON TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
DRAMATICALLY...CAUSED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOW A NICE FRONTOLYSIS/FRONTOGENESIS COUPLET WHICH YIELDS STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. SO ANTICIPATING THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
IN AND PUSHES THE FRONT EAST...SHOULD SEE A BAND OF RAIN BEHIND IT.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO GET RAIN NOW FOR TUESDAY...
THOUGH NORTHWEST SECTIONS SHOULD DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING HEADS EAST. WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN MOVING
THROUGH...A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS REQUIRED. PLUS...850MB TEMPS FALL
FROM 2-6C AT 12Z TO 0 TO -2C AT 00Z. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S AT BEST...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS MAY BE A
MORNING HIGH.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SIT
UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE
850MB TEMPS FURTHER DOWN...REACHING -4 TO -7C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE A LOW STRATUS DECK...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WISCONSIN. SO AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND A DECENT
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TO MUCH. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS STRATUS DECK WILL
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...BY 00Z THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE BREEZES WILL HELP
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 0 TO
-3C BY 00Z. PLENTY OF SUN AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
MIXING...BUT GIVEN THE COOL 850MB TEMPS...AT BEST HIGHS MAY REACH
THE MID 50S AND THAT IS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR COMES IN LATE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT
DROPPED DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
HEAD TO THE EAST...VERSUS DIG DOWN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA LIKE
THE PAST COUPLE HAVE DONE. AS SUCH...ALL FORCING AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION WITH IT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO COME THROUGH. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED...WITH THE 08.12Z NAM THE SLOWEST NOT
SHOWING FULL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHILE THE 08.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGESTING MAINLY DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY GROUP AT THIS TIME AND CONSIDER THE NAM AN
OUTLIER. NO MATTER WHAT MODEL FOLLOWED...IN THE COLD FRONT
WAKE...YET ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...AFTER 850MB TEMPS WARM UP TO
A CONSENSUS 4-8C AT 12Z THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEY FALL BACK
DOWN TO 0 TO -4C. THIS COLD ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE FALL TO TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...LEANED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FROM THE
MAJORITY GROUP...YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POTENTIAL FOR MOST SUN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY
08.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST EACH OTHER AND PAST RUNS SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE HERE LATE
THIS WEEK. CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING...
MODELS PROG TO LIFT INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON SATURDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO AFTER WHAT WILL BE A DRY AND
COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS...EXPECT WARMING WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH EXPECTED COMBINATION
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER JET FORCING AND DPVA. SOME DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST ON SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS. THE 08.12Z
CANADIAN AND A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD THE MAJORITY OF
THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE PAST FEW DAYS OF EJECTING IT UP TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE LATTER GROUP TO
ALSO LIFT THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...FOR LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...OUR WHOLE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS PLENTIFUL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...NO FEAR OF SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE 0-3KM MUCAPE FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. FOR THE
FORECAST...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATTER GROUP...BUT EITHER
SCENARIO YIELDS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN NECESSARY DUE TO
THE EXPECTED MUCAPE. EXACT QPF AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE TREND OF THE SYSTEM NOW MORE THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN IF THE SYSTEM WAS GOING SLIGHTLY TO OUR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PATTERN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA APPEARS TO HAVE FAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE 08.12Z GFS AND 08.00Z ECMWF OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
WHICH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
LOT OF SPREAD...THOUGH...WITH SOME NOT HAVING THIS TROUGH AT ALL AND
ACTUALLY SHOWING A RIDGE. NEW 08.12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST WITH HINTS OF RIDGING COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY FORECAST. NET RESULT IS TO HAVE SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
FROM THE UPPER LOW...THEN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST LOOK CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PACIFIC
FLOW OF AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1252 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. PLAN ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 18 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 28 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE 8 TO
12 KT RANGE AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. CLOUDS BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KRST BY 13Z WITH
CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER KLSE BY 14Z...WITH CLOUD BASES LOWING TO 2000 FT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGHING...WHICH INCLUDE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE
FORECAST AREA NOW...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDING THE
SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE... A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FORECAST
AREA...AHEAD OF A 1002MB LOW IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY WARMING THINGS...WITH RAP 850MB
TEMPS AT MPX NOW AROUND 0C COMPARED TO -5C PER 12Z SOUNDING.
AIRMASS QUITE DRY TOO WITH MPX SOUNDING SHOWING 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKING IT TO
NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. CO-LOCATED NEARLY RIGHT
UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW...PROGGED TO DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY...WITH ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHING MINNEAPOLIS AND SIOUX
CITY IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO STAY
PUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTED TO GET EVEN
STRONGER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS...BUT ANTICIPATING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MIXING ANYWHERE FROM 850MB TO 800MB WHERE A WIND CORE OF 35-40 KT IS
PRESENT. THUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. REGARDING THE
MIXING...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE DEPTH GIVEN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. 700MB RH FIELDS FROM THE 07.12Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL DEPICT THE CURRENT ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN SPREADING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HINT AT EVEN PRECIPITATION FROM TAYLOR COUNTY NORTHWARD COMING OUT
OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN ALL OTHER MODELS DRY AND THE DEEP
MIXING...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING. REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PROPEL 850MB TEMPS UP TO
4-6C BY 18Z...ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S. TAYLOR
COUNTY MAY GET STUCK IN THE 50S...THOUGH...DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY. COMBINATION OF THE WINDS...
TEMPERATURES...ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...KEPT UP BY THE WINDS. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT A FROST/FREEZE IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT TEMPERATURES
MAY END UP RIGHT AROUND 32F AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT GET
HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST FORMATION.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE...MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH LOOKS
MORE POTENT DROPPING DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INITIALLY...SINCE IT
CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN PARALLEL. NOT UNTIL TUESDAY DOES THE
FRONT GET A BETTER PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. THUS...MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
BIGGER ISSUE THOUGH IS IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR. THERE IS SOME
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE PRETTY DRY WITH ONLY HINTS
OF A LITTLE LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY IN A NARROW BAND. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE FORCING NOT THAT STRONG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHICH ARE JUST CLIMBING TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
AT 12Z. TUESDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH THE MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. THIS SHORTWAVE ENHANCES THE FRONTOGENESIS
CIRCULATION AND NOW THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER IS IN PLACE. ALL
MODELS DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY EVEN MODERATE RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
THE POTENCY OF THE SHORTWAVE...THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A MAX OF 60 IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...STAYED ON THE COOLER OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...PERHAPS REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY 06Z. THE ENHANCED
FRONTOGENESIS BAND COULD STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z ECMWF...
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THAT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING COMES IN ALOFT...WHICH MAY TRAP
SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS STILL WELL TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY REACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...FAVORING TOO THE CLOUDS TO STAY IN
PLACE. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME MIXING AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES...
PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN WHICH IS MORE IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW.
850MB TEMPS DROP QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING FROM 0-4C AT
00Z TO -2 TO -4C AT 12Z. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY BREEZE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS PLUS CLOUDS MAY END UP HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...LEANED A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SHOWED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
07.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE DEEP TROUGHING...
CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO COME THROUGH DRY...WITH YET ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...GET PUSHED TO THE EAST. MODEL
HANDLING YESTERDAY WAS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT NOW ALL
MODELS ARE IN SYNC IN LIFTING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO
NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
INDICATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...THERE ARE EVEN SIGNALS OF A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE TO
SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFT INTO IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90...WHERE 850MB TEMPS ARE CLIMBING
TOWARDS 10-12C AND MUCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THOSE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT RELATED TO DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...THEN WITH A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW NORMAL...EVEN WITH THAT WARMER AIR COMING UP ON
SATURDAY. THE PROBLEM WITH SATURDAY IS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AND THE RAIN AROUND. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN
HIGHS IN THE 50S. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS ALMOST OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH 09Z. BOTH THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.01Z RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AT
KLSE. THIS IS AN INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE ADDED
LLWS TO THE KLSE SITE. STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AT KRST WILL LIKELY
KEEP THEM BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 10Z AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN
070-090K FEET AFTER 15Z AT BOTH SITES AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z.
WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING
MONDAY...WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 32 KNOTS
AT THE SITES...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY
327 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
A BREEZY SOUTH WIND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WILL HELP PREVENT FULL RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT
GIVEN DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW IN THE TEENS. MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITY
VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT AT MOST.
THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS
RESULTS IN SOME ISSUES...PRIMARILY WITH FINE FUELS. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 60S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRES. THE ONGOING MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT PLUS MOST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING A FREEZE ALSO
CREATES EXTRA CONCERN FOR FIRES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MINNESOTA
AND IOWA FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ONLY DROP TO 25-30
PERCENT. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WISCONSIN FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS...HAVE
DECLINED TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD TROUGH IN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE US. A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REX BLOCK IS STILL IN PLACE OFF THE
WESTERN...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA AS STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA SHIFTS WEST AND DISSIPATES. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...SO
NO MENTION IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE
MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO THE 30-35F RANGE...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BRING TEMPS BACK UP
ABOVE FREEZING. DESPITE THIS...THERE IS STILL A WINDOW IN THE WEST
BETWEEN 06-09Z WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST HAVE ALREADY SEEN A HARD
FREEZE...SO I ONLY ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF MY CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER THAT MOVES TO A POSITION WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LACK OF FORCING
AND MOISTURE. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DYNAMICS
APPROACH THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PLAN TO KEEP A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FA.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY FRIDAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
HIGHER CHANCE POPS.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COOLING TO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE AROUND 70. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST FA SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEBRASKA.
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND
70 EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 09-12Z AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS SATES. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z AS
THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION SETS UP AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013-
014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
...FROST ADVISORY AND A NW FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF MICHIGAN...ENTERING THE STATE OF KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MAINLY A DRY ONE ATTM WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WITH SOME TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A
SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE VALLEYS TO DROP
OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY CASE WHILE THE RIDGES HOLD IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 40S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO NOTED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALL CLEAR OUT TOWARD DAWN AS THE CLOUDS OF THE FRONT
MOVES IN ALONG WITH A STIRRING OF THE WIND FROM THE SOUTH. THE PICK
UP IN WINDS SHOULD ALSO MIX THE AIR MORE EFFECTIVELY AND ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPS TO RISE TOWARD DAWN.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
EFFECTS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY LATER TODAY AND SET UP A
REGIME OF SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS...BUT ALSO FAST AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...SLIGHT THAT THEY ARE...IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND THE RESOLUTION AND INTERNAL
MECHANICS OF THE MODELS THEMSELVES. ACCORDINGLY...THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAMDNG SHOW ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS
FRONT TO PRINT OUT SMALL POPS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS...ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF...
ARE DRY...INCLUDING THE RUC13. PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE IDEAS OF THE
HRRR WITH SOME ECMWF SUPPORT FOR POPS TODAY. AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF PCPN SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ATTM...SOME EXTRA
LIFT AVAILABLE COMING THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HERE...AND DECENT
DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS
SCENARIO FOR EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY. THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PCPN FROM THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OUT BY EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE WINDS GO LIGHT AND CALM AFTER SUNSET.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST NIGHT...ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY...OF THE YOUNG FALL
SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER THICK FROST A GOOD BET.
THE FROST ON TUESDAY MORNING ONLY REALLY AFFECTED LOCALIZED AREAS TO
OUR NORTHWEST WHILE FOG MANAGED TO PROTECT THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THEREFORE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF EAST KENTUCKY FROST WILL BE THE LARGER THREAT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
ABOUT HALF THE AREA AND FOR A JUST BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS DAWN. AS A
RESULT...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST THAT SAW MORE
FROST YESTERDAY MORNING AND KICK OFF A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA. WILL START THESE AT MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS SHOULD
DROP OFF FAST FOLLOWING SUNSET AND A SETTLING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD
DAWN OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT WIDESPREAD FROST CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. TO EASE ANY CONFUSION WITH THE TWO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR OUR AREA...BUT VERY SIMILAR EFFECTS
EXPECTED...WILL ISSUE THEM FOR THE SAME VALID TIMES FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 9 AM EDT. THURSDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AFTER A CHILLY START
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED A MIX OF THE INHERITED GRIDS...MAV GUIDANCE...AND
TERRAIN BASED EDITING FOR THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND OTHERWISE. AS
FOR POPS...AGAIN RAN HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S SLIGHT
CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
THE FIRST ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED CENTERS AROUND A
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS DUO...BRINGING THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...INVOKING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AS
IT TREKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LOOKING A
LITTLE BETTER THIS MORNING...AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY STILL DOES
NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THUNDER THROUGH THIS WINDOW. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ANY TSTMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND WELL BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD YIELDING
QUIETER WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...A CUTOFF
LOW STILL PARKED OFF THE COAST OF CA IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
DESERT SW BEFORE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
THIS FEATURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE ACCOMPANYING SFC REFLECTION USHERING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ABOUT THIS TIME...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A VERY LOOSE CONSENSUS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS
SOME STALLING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO ERN KY WITH THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF PAUSING OVER THE LENGTH OF THE MS VALLEY
WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROF BEFORE ULTIMATELY KICKING THE FRONT AND THE BULK OF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...A SOLID CONSENSUS BECOMES NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO COME BY.
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS LIMITED
TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
ALMOST ALL OF THE MVFR STRATOCU HAS DISSIPATED OVER OUR EAST...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ANY FOG FOUND ONLY
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. TOWARD DAWN...MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PUSH BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AS A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE ODD CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT AND WILL EXIT WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A SOLID
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND PICK UP A NOTCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY...TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND STAYING UP BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CREATE A
MINOR SHEAR CONCERN AS THEY ARE RUNNING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2K FEET OFF THE SFC.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
...FROST ADVISORY AND A NW FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF MICHIGAN...ENTERING THE STATE OF KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MAINLY A DRY ONE ATTM WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WITH SOME TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A
SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE VALLEYS TO DROP
OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY CASE WHILE THE RIDGE HOLD IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 40S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO NOTED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALL CLEAR OUT TOWARD DAWN AS THE CLOUDS OF THE FRONT
MOVES IN ALONG WITH A STIRRING OF THE WIND FROM THE SOUTH. THE PICK
UP IN WINDS SHOULD ALSO MIX THE AIR MORE EFFECTIVELY AND ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPS TO RISE TOWARD DAWN.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
EFFECTS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY LATER TODAY AND SET UP A
REGIME OF SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS...BUT ALSO FAST AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...SLIGHT THAT THEY ARE...IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND THE RESOLUTION AND INTERNAL
MECHANICS OF THE MODELS THEMSELVES. ACCORDINGLY...THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAMDNG SHOW ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS
FRONT TO PRINT OUT SMALL POPS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS...ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF...
ARE DRY...INCLUDING THE RUC13. PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE IDEAS OF THE
HRRR WITH SOME ECMWF SUPPORT FOR POPS TODAY. AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF PCPN SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ATTM...SOME EXTRA
LIFT AVAILABLE COMING THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HERE...AND DECENT
DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS
SCENARIO FOR EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY. THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PCPN FROM THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OUT BY EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE WINDS GO LIGHT AND CALM AFTER SUNSET.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST NIGHT...ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY...OF THE YOUNG FALL
SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER THICK FROST A GOOD BET.
THE FROST ON TUESDAY MORNING ONLY REALLY AFFECTED LOCALIZED AREAS TO
OUR NORTHWEST WHILE FOG MANAGED TO PROTECT THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THEREFORE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF EAST KENTUCKY FROST WILL BE THE LARGER THREAT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
ABOUT HALF THE AREA AND FOR A JUST BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS DAWN. AS A
RESULT...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST THAT SAW MORE
FROST YESTERDAY MORNING AND KICK OFF A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA. WILL START THESE AT MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS SHOULD
DROP OFF FAST FOLLOWING SUNSET AND A SETTLING OF THE WINDS. HOWEVER...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD DAWN OVER
THE NORTHWEST...BUT WIDESPREAD FROST CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. TO EASE ANY CONFUSION WITH THE TWO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
FOR OUR AREA...BUT VERY SIMILAR EFFECTS EXPECTED...WILL ISSUE THEM
FOR THE SAME VALID TIMES FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM EDT. THURSDAY
WILL BE A NICE DAY AFTER A CHILLY START WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED A MIX OF THE INHERITED GRIDS...MAV GUIDANCE...AND
TERRAIN BASED EDITING FOR THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND OTHERWISE. AS
FOR POPS...AGAIN RAIN HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S SLIGHT
CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING THE LOCAL AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTH OF
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING A QUICK
SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT ALOFT FOR PRECIP LOOKS MEAGER. THE NAM DOES SHOWS MORE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE...BUT IS NOT
CONSISTENT IN ITS PLACEMENT. ITS GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE LAST
COUPLE RUNS WOULD BE FOR HIGHER POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL
USE 20-30 PERCENT POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY. A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY MILD WINDS. MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME.
THIS COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE LOSING
ITS DEFINITION AND ITS PUNCH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY THE TIME IT
ARRIVES. THIS WOULD LEAVE US WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR
MASS. EVEN SO...THE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE MAY BE WARM AND MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A
BIT OF SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER JET AS MODELS SHOW BEING POSSIBLE. WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS HAS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM AS IT
HEADS THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASSES ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF FROM 00Z SHOWS NO SECONDARY FRONT AND HAS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING
OVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MUCH LESS DISTINCTIVE WITH
THE SECOND FRONT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL RUN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER ON TUESDAY...AS
OPPOSED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OF THE ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CONFIDENCE TAKES A HIT WITH THE CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS. WILL
USE LOW CHANCE POPS AGAIN ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH FOR VARYING REASONS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. WILL USE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND A COMPROMISE ON TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
ALMOST ALL OF THE MVFR STRATOCU HAS DISSIPATED OVER OUR EAST...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ANY FOG FOUND ONLY
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. TOWARD DAWN...MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PUSH BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AS A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE ODD CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT AND WILL EXIT WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A SOLID
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND PICK UP A NOTCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY...TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND STAYING UP BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CREATE A
MINOR SHEAR CONCERN AS THEY ARE RUNNING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2K FEET OFF THE SFC.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO
MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT HIB AND INL
WITH MVFR VSBYS AT INL BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. DLH/BRD/HYR MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH S OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE MORE SPARSE
AND HAVE A VCSH MENTION. THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 00Z
BRINGING AND END TO THE LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
UPDATE...
COVERAGE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO. LOSS OF HEATING HAS HELPED DIMINISH THE
SHOWERS...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A DIMINISHING TREND
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
SHORE. COLD AIR...850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -8C AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
THE FETCH DOES APPEAR TO BE TOO WEST OF NORTH IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WE WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS OVER
THE SNOWBELT OF IRON COUNTY...TO PORTIONS OF ASHLAND COUNTY TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHLAND AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 3
MILES...AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
MOST PLACES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...BUT PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SNOWBELT OF IRON AND PERHAPS INTO ASHLAND COUNTY AS WELL.
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING...EVEN DIPPING
BRIEFLY TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WE EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME REDUCTION
IN CEILING OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING
AFTER 04Z OR SO. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SPOTS...AS
SUGGESTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE DO LOWER CEILINGS TO
MVFR FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS WILL COME UP ON
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT 330 PM...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIX RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT A CHECK WITH SOME OBSERVERS AND AREA
WEB CAMS REVEALS NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY NEAR 40
NORTH AND IN THE 40S SOUTH. WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE SOME 25 KNOT WINDS WERE FOUND.
TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT
THE DLH LOCAL RUN OF THE WRF WAS INDICATING SOME STREAMERS FROM
MANY LARGER INLAND LAKES...ESPECIALLY LAKE OF THE WOODS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND OF SOME OF THE
INTERIOR LAKES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE 20S.
WEDNESDAY...THE DAY WILL START DRY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS A
VIGOROUS ALBERTA CLIPPER SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD SNOW...MIXED
WITH SOME RAIN...FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION WOULD BE THE
WESTERN IRON RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IRON RANGE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. THINK THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH DYNAMIC
COOLING TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD COME
SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST FORCING...NAMELY THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NORTHLANDERS WILL WAKE UP THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
POSSIBLY NEAR IRONWOOD IN IRON COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND WILL TAKE A BIG CHANGE WHEN A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARM AND MOISTURE RICH AIR TO THE
FA...SO POPS DRAMATICALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE FA COULD GET AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE PAST THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 43 25 46 / 40 10 0 10
INL 28 41 23 45 / 60 20 0 10
BRD 33 46 24 49 / 30 0 0 10
HYR 33 47 23 48 / 30 10 0 10
ASX 34 47 28 48 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. WIND SHEAR AN EARLY CONCERN WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT A HOWLING NORTHWEST WIND OF 40KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE 2K LAYER PER VAD WIND PROFILES. RUC SUGGESTS THIS WILL
LAST THROUGH 10Z AND THEN ABATE QUICKLY. BEYOND THAT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE KGRI AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH RESULT IN TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME WIND FOR AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS
COLD FRONT...WHICH AS OF 20Z...IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO MAKE FOR AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTH...TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO VERY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN DEPRESSED AND SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME A
BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH WINDS AND
RHS APPEAR TO BE JUST SHY OF CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS
KANSAS...WHERE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL BE THE STRONGEST. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY IN HWO.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
.ONE MORE MINOR/BARELY NOTICEABLE REINFORCEMENT TO THE COOL TEMPS
THU THEN CONCERN TURNS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT AS WE TRANSITION
TO A WARMER PATTERN...
PATTERN: SOME HIGH LATITUDE LONGWAVE RETROGRESSION WILL RESULT IN A
PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL FAVOR TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS BEGINS AS EARLY AS SAT. THE LAST CANADIAN AIR TO
SPILL DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE THU`S COOL FRONT. THE MULTI-DAY GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGESTS A COMPLETE REVERSAL OF N AMERICA HGT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO LESS NW
FLOW HERE AND MORE SW FLOW. 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS ARE NOW BACK TO
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
QPF: THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
FRI NIGHT /POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SAT MORNING E OF HWY 281?/. GEFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR 0.5" QPF IN 24 HRS SUGGESTS SOME "SPOTTY" HALF
INCH AMTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER OUR KS
COUNTIES. THE BEST PROBS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD 0.5" WILL BE JUST E OF
OUR FCST AREA.
UPPER-LEVELS: WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THU. SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ARRIVES FRI IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW /CURRENT OFF OF CA/ HEADING E
THRU THE 4-CORNERS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU SAT...INITIATING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS FRI NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WHICH
FAVORS SEASONABLE TEMPS.
AFTER SATURDAY`S SFC LOW DEPARTS...NO REAL COOL-DOWN AS SERN USA
HIGH PRES MAINTAINS S FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A LEE TROF TO THE W.
THE DAILY DETAILS:
WED NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW TEMPS ARE BIAS
CORRECTED GFS 2M TEMPS /32-46F/. THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR ORD ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ARE THEREFORE BELOW
AVERAGE. COULD SEE LOW TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 40F IF FRONT
DOESN`T MOVE THRU UNTIL DAYBREAK.
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...SKY COVER HAS BEEN
INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS FOR WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAMES...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS WOULD HAVE PREFERRED.
THU: MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. TOUGH TO GET A READ ON WHAT THEY WILL DO AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER COMPLICATES. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL STILL REMAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE MRNG. SO DESPITE CAA BELIEVE WE COULD SEE
QUICK WARM-UP "IF" THERE ARE SUBSTANTIVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. AS OF
NOW WE HAVE 60-75F IN THE FCST.
THU NIGHT: P/CLOUDY ON AVERAGE BUT MAY BE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES. LOW
TEMPS ARE BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE WARMED A COUPLE DEG
/29-46F/. THIS COULD STILL BE 3-5F TOO COLD IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP/
THICKEN AS HINTED IN CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS.
FRI: BUST POTENTIAL IS LARGE FOR TEMPS. THU`S COOL FRONT STALLS NEAR
KS-OK BORDER AND BEGINS ACTING AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES. 09Z/SREF PROBS FOR
01" QPF INCREASE ABOVE 60% OVER OUR KS COUNTIES 15-18Z AND OVER OUR
NEB COUNTIES AFTER 18Z. SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE NAEFS SHOWS SOME SPREAD
E OF THE MEAN AT 00Z/SAT SUGGESTIVE OF SOME MEMBERS FAVORING A BIT
FASTER SCENARIO. THESE POPS WILL COVER POTENTIALLY FASTER START TO
THE RAIN.
TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF ALL 2M GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS 52-65F. DEPENDENT
ON CLOUDS/PCPN THOSE TEMPS IN THE 60S S/E OF GRI COULD END UP BEING
JAMMED IN THE 50S.
FRI NIGHT: SFC LOW EJECTS OUT OF CO...PROBABLY JUST N OF THE FCST
AREA. RICH MSTR WILL BRIEFLY NOSE IN WITH 1" PW ENCOMPASSING THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND MAX VALUE AROUND 1.50". THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN OF 1.42" IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL!
BOTH EC/GFS SHOWALTER -3 WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. LOTS OF
TIME FOR THESE NUMBERS TO CHANGE. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS ALOFT
BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SFC-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR
TIME OF COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR /1-6 KM/ IS CURRENTLY
FCST BELOW 20 KTS. SFC BASED SHEAR 35-40 KTS.
SAT: POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER SHWRS/TSTMS E OF HWY 281 IN THE MRNG?
OTHERWISE...CLEARING AND WINDY IN THE DRY SLOT! WE COULD FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS /45 MPH/. TEMPS ARE 66-76F.
THE 12Z/EC HAS COME IN 230 MILES SW OF ITS 00Z CYCLE AT H5. THIS IS
ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE/CLUSTERING SO IT`S BEEN
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.
SUN: VERY NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES! SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/71-77F/ AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUN NGT: UNCERTAINTY BUT PROBABLY DRY. WE`VE SEEN THE 00Z/EC AND
12Z/GEM WHICH HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROF AND SOME MEASURABLE QPF. THE 12Z
EC/GFS SAY NO.
MON-WED: P/CLOUDY. COULD BE WARMER THAN WE`VE CURRENT FCST WITH SOME
80S POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES EJECTS THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
THE HGT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE E PAC BEGINNING SUN AS HGTS
FALL OVER THE GULF OF AK AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OFF
CA. THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF THE EC/GFS HAVE A 160-180 KT UPPER JET
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SHOULD INITIATE LEE CYCLOGENESIS SOMETIME
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE JET SPILLS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE GEFS MEAN IS SUPPORTIVE WITH ITS 150 KTS ON DAY 7!
BY TUE 10/16...THE NAEFS HAS 100M OF SPREAD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AT
500 MB. SO WHILE WE KNOW SOMETHING WILL BECOMING OUR WAY...ITS
INTENSITY AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CAP THE REGION WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
505 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CHILLIER FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBGM 88D VWP SHOWS A LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 2
AND 7 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE A COOLER LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WHICH WAS SEEN WELL IN THE OBSERVATIONS AS A LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER. THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
AT 925 MB. IN CONTRAST...ABOVE THIS LAYER...THERE WERE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS WAS LEADING
TO SATURATION AND LO AND BEHOLD THE RADAR WAS SHOWG PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAINLY E OF A SYR-TOWANDA LINE FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. IN ADDTN...CLOUD CIGS SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE POCONOS...CATSKILLS AND HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN PA ABOVE 1800 FEET WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG. MOUNT POCONO
WAS 1/2SM FG...SO I SUSPECT FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ERN PART OF CWA IN GRIDS ABOVE
1800 FEET WHICH IS NOT MUCH...EXCEPT IN CATSKILLS. SINCE THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED WEST OF THIS CLOUD AND DRIZZLE LAYER (W OF
SYR-TOW) SKIES HAVE CLEARED. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
COOLER MARINE-LIKE CLOUD LAYER WILL STAY TO THE E OF THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDC FOR THE MOST PART.
THUS I WILL KEEP CLDS AND DRIZZLY/PATCHY HIGH ELEVATION FOG OUT
FINGER LAKES AND WEST OVERNIGHT
THE LOW-LEVEL SFC TO 925 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM THIS AM BY TURNING THE WINDS MORE
SWRLY WHICH WILL ADVECT THE DRIZZLY/LOW MOISTURE TO THE EAST INTO
ERN NY BY 18Z. THUS I MOVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE
CATSKILLS BY LATE MORNING.
THEN WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
GREAT LAKE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRNT. THE PV LOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES INTO NY AND NRN PA BY
18Z AND ACTUALLY DIGS INTO NY AND PA BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS
A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG LL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THE
850 MB FRONT TO ABT ROC-ELZ BY 18Z. THE 850 MB FRNT WILL THEN MOVE
EAST AND REACH UCA-BGM-TOW BY 21Z AND CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY 00Z
AND CLEAR ALL OF NE PA AND SE NY BY 03Z OR SO.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
TODAY. THE PRECIP THEN FIZZLES AS IT WORKS E OF C NY AND NE PA. THEN
THE STRG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850 MB FRNT TAKES OVER AND
LEADS TO PLENTY OF SC AND A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS TO -4C
BTWN 6Z AND 12Z THU. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND
16Z...WHICH GIVES A 20C DIFFERENTIAL. THIS IS EXTREME INSTABILITY.
THE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO WARM ESPECIALLY IF ENUF SENSIBLE AND
LATENT HEATING TAKES PLACE FROM THE LAKE WATERS WHICH IS ASSUMED.
IN THIS CASE...IT WUD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY EARLY LAKE SNOWS AT THIS
POINT IN NC NY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 280 DEGREE FLOW TONIGHT.
COLLABORATED WITH KBUF WFO ON LAKE RAIN SHOWERS POSITIONING
TONIGHT VIA ISC GRIDS. REST OF CWA WILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS BUT
LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NRN
NY AS THE LOW-LEVE FLOW BACKS TO MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT REACHES THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE W-SW IT WILL DRY OUT SO I
SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY FALL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS...EURO...CMC AND NAM ALL
BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING A BIT WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
CLDS AND SHOWERS DOWN...THE NAM IS SLOWEST WITH THE EURO AND CMC A
COMPRIMISE. WILL GO WITH THE COMPRIMISE FOR NOW AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND
BEHIND FROPA THU NGT AND FRI AM. THEN I CAN SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LINGERING DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO AT
LEAST THRU FRI AM. BY FRI PM AND FRI NGT...LARGE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND MANY OF OUR TREES ARE EITHER AT PEAK COLORS WITH QUITE A FEW
ALREADY DROPPED ALREADY. THEREFORE LITTLE TO NO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN SO I COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ENTIRE CWA SAT AM...MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S.
COLDEST VALLEYS POSSIBLY EVEN FLIRTING WITH UPPER TEENS. KELM MEX
GUIDC SHOWING MIN OF 23 SAT WITH THE EURO GUIDC GOING FOR 25 AT
KELM. WE HAVE RURAL SPOTS THAT GET EVEN LOWER THAN ELM. ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF THERE IS SOME PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WHICH WUD HOLD TEMPS UP. IF IT HOLDS CLEAR WE LIKELY WILL HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OR EVEN HARD FREEZE. RECORD MINIMUMS COULD BE
CHALLENGED. WILL HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR SATURDAY
AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM LOOKS GOOD. MODELS SIMILAR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
SATURDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMING SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WITH A WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLOW WARMING AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PTRN OVER THE MEDIUM RNG WITH S/WV`S PASSING EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS W/ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE XPCTD TO BE
CNTRD OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATER FRI NGT...AND CLEARING SKIES MAY
ALLOW FOR AN AREA-WIDE FROST/FREEZE AND AN OFFICIAL END TO THE
GROWING SEASON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD TO THE CST BY SUNDAY
EVNG...WITH A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED ON SAT. THE NXT S/WVS
APRCH FROM THE GTLAKES/OH VLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NGT WITH MORE -SHRA.
MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHO A STRAY -SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT SO WE RETAINED THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
A SOLID MARINE LAYER IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE ALSO BEING REPORTED. RME...BGM...AVP
WILL STAY UNDER A IFR/MVFR DECK UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AVP JUST ABOVE
1K FT AND WILL PROBABY FALL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z.
BGM ALREADY VERY LOW IFR AND AT FLIGHT MINIMUMS...ALSO EXPECTED TO
ADD SOME MVFR OR MAYBE IFR VSBY FOG TO THAT. RME MVFR CIGS AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE. LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUD EDGE
EXPECTED BUT ITH ON THIS EDGE SO COULD HAVE A MVFR CIG OR BE
CLEAR. ELM HAVING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM SURFACE WINDS COULD DROP TO
IFR IN VALLEY FOG. CONFIDENCE LOW SO HEDGED WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY 8 TO 12Z. THIS MARINE DECK SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE LATE AFTN BUT MOSTLY VFR. THIS EVENING LAKE
EFFECT SETS UP WITH A 280 FLOW. THIS MOSTLY AFFECTS RME AND MAYBE
SYR WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR. ITH AND BGM MAY ALSO HAVE MVFR CIGS
WITH THE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
SE TO S WINDS AT 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. AROUND 14Z
WINDS SHIFT TO S TO SW AT AROUND 10 KTS. COULD BE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTN. AROUND 21Z THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR...XCPT PSBL MVFR AT RME/SYR DUE TO LAKE CLDS/SHRA.
THU...VFR...BUT MVFR PSBL THU MRNG AT RME.
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA...OTRW IMPRVMNT
TO VFR LATE OR FRIDAY EVE.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER
13TH. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. RECORD LOWS THAT COULD BE CHALLENGED ARE
AS FOLLOWS:
RECORD (YEAR) SAT AM FORECAST LOW
GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT 28 (1993) 30
SCRANTON/WILKE BARRE AIRPORT 29 (1993) 30
SYRACUSE AIRPORT 29 (2006) 31
ITHACA AIRPORT 25 (1964) 28
ELMIRA/CORNING AIRPORT 25 (1951) 26
ROME/GRIFFIS AIRPORT 26 (1993) 27
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
426 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CHILLIER FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBGM 88D VWP SHOWS A LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 2
AND 7 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE A COOLER LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WHICH WAS SEEN WELL IN THE OBSERVATIONS AS A LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER. THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
AT 925 MB. IN CONTRAST...ABOVE THIS LAYER...THERE WERE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS WAS LEADING
TO SATURATION AND LO AND BEHOLD THE RADAR WAS SHOWG PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAINLY E OF A SYR-TOWANDA LINE FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. IN ADDTN...CLOUD CIGS SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE POCONOS...CATSKILLS AND HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN PA ABOVE 1800 FEET WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG. MOUNT POCONO
WAS 1/2SM FG...SO I SUSPECT FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ERN PART OF CWA IN GRIDS ABOVE
1800 FEET WHICH IS NOT MUCH...EXCEPT IN CATSKILLS. SINCE THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED WEST OF THIS CLOUD AND DRIZZLE LAYER (W OF
SYR-TOW) SKIES HAVE CLEARED. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
COOLER MARINE-LIKE CLOUD LAYER WILL STAY TO THE E OF THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDC FOR THE MOST PART.
THUS I WILL KEEP CLDS AND DRIZZLY/PATCHY HIGH ELEVATION FOG OUT
FINGER LAKES AND WEST OVERNIGHT
THE LOW-LEVEL SFC TO 925 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM THIS AM BY TURNING THE WINDS MORE
SWRLY WHICH WILL ADVECT THE DRIZZLY/LOW MOISTURE TO THE EAST INTO
ERN NY BY 18Z. THUS I MOVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE
CATSKILLS BY LATE MORNING.
THEN WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
GREAT LAKE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRNT. THE PV LOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES INTO NY AND NRN PA BY
18Z AND ACTUALLY DIGS INTO NY AND PA BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS
A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG LL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THE
850 MB FRONT TO ABT ROC-ELZ BY 18Z. THE 850 MB FRNT WILL THEN MOVE
EAST AND REACH UCA-BGM-TOW BY 21Z AND CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY 00Z
AND CLEAR ALL OF NE PA AND SE NY BY 03Z OR SO.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
TODAY. THE PRECIP THEN FIZZLES AS IT WORKS E OF C NY AND NE PA. THEN
THE STRG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850 MB FRNT TAKES OVER AND
LEADS TO PLENTY OF SC AND A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS TO -4C
BTWN 6Z AND 12Z THU. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND
16Z...WHICH GIVES A 20C DIFFERENTIAL. THIS IS EXTREME INSTABILITY.
THE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO WARM ESPECIALLY IF ENUF SENSIBLE AND
LATENT HEATING TAKES PLACE FROM THE LAKE WATERS WHICH IS ASSUMED.
IN THIS CASE...IT WUD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY EARLY LAKE SNOWS AT THIS
POINT IN NC NY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 280 DEGREE FLOW TONIGHT.
COLLABORATED WITH KBUF WFO ON LAKE RAIN SHOWERS POSITIONING
TONIGHT VIA ISC GRIDS. REST OF CWA WILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS BUT
LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NRN
NY AS THE LOW-LEVE FLOW BACKS TO MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT REACHES THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE W-SW IT WILL DRY OUT SO I
SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY FALL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS...EURO...CMC AND NAM ALL
BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING A BIT WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
CLDS AND SHOWERS DOWN...THE NAM IS SLOWEST WITH THE EURO AND CMC A
COMPRIMISE. WILL GO WITH THE COMPRIMISE FOR NOW AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND
BEHIND FROPA THU NGT AND FRI AM. THEN I CAN SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LINGERING DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO AT
LEAST THRU FRI AM. BY FRI PM AND FRI NGT...LARGE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND MANY OF OUR TREES ARE EITHER AT PEAK COLORS WITH QUITE A FEW
ALREADY DROPPED ALREADY. THEREFORE LITTLE TO NO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN SO I COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ENTIRE CWA SAT AM...MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S.
COLDEST VALLEYS POSSIBLY EVEN FLIRTING WITH UPPER TEENS. KELM MEX
GUIDC SHOWING MIN OF 23 SAT WITH THE EURO GUIDC GOING FOR 25 AT
KELM. WE HAVE RURAL SPOTS THAT GET EVEN LOWER THAN ELM. ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF THERE IS SOME PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WHICH WUD HOLD TEMPS UP. IF IT HOLDS CLEAR WE LIKELY WILL HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OR EVEN HARD FREEZE. RECORD MINIMUMS COULD BE
CHALLENGED. WILL HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR SATURDAY
AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM LOOKS GOOD. MODELS SIMILAR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
SATURDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMING SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WITH A WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLOW WARMING AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PTRN OVER THE MEDIUM RNG WITH S/WV`S PASSING EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS W/ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE XPCTD TO BE
CNTRD OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATER FRI NGT...AND CLEARING SKIES MAY
ALLOW FOR AN AREA-WIDE FROST/FREEZE AND AN OFFICIAL END TO THE
GROWING SEASON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD TO THE CST BY SUNDAY
EVNG...WITH A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED ON SAT. THE NXT S/WVS
APRCH FROM THE GTLAKES/OH VLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NGT WITH MORE -SHRA.
MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHO A STRAY -SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT SO WE RETAINED THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
A SOLID MARINE LAYER IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE ALSO BEING REPORTED. RME...BGM...AVP
WILL STAY UNDER A IFR/MVFR DECK UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AVP JUST ABOVE
1K FT AND WILL PROBABY FALL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z.
BGM ALREADY VERY LOW IFR AND AT FLIGHT MINIMUMS...ALSO EXPECTED TO
ADD SOME MVFR OR MAYBE IFR VSBY FOG TO THAT. RME MVFR CIGS AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE. LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUD EDGE
EXPECTED BUT ITH ON THIS EDGE SO COULD HAVE A MVFR CIG OR BE
CLEAR. ELM HAVING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM SURFACE WINDS COULD DROP TO
IFR IN VALLEY FOG. CONFIDENCE LOW SO HEDGED WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY 8 TO 12Z. THIS MARINE DECK SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE LATE AFTN BUT MOSTLY VFR. THIS EVENING LAKE
EFFECT SETS UP WITH A 280 FLOW. THIS MOSTLY AFFECTS RME AND MAYBE
SYR WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR. ITH AND BGM MAY ALSO HAVE MVFR CIGS
WITH THE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
SE TO S WINDS AT 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. AROUND 14Z
WINDS SHIFT TO S TO SW AT AROUND 10 KTS. COULD BE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTN. AROUND 21Z THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR...XCPT PSBL MVFR AT RME/SYR DUE TO LAKE CLDS/SHRA.
THU...VFR...BUT MVFR PSBL THU MRNG AT RME.
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA...OTRW IMPRVMNT
TO VFR LATE OR FRIDAY EVE.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
246 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CHILLIER FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBGM 88D VWP SHOWS A LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 2
AND 7 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE A COOLER LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WHICH WAS SEEN WELL IN THE OBSERVATIONS AS A LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER. THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
AT 925 MB. IN CONTRAST...ABOVE THIS LAYER...THERE WERE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS WAS LEADING
TO SATURATION AND LO AND BEHOLD THE RADAR WAS SHOWG PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAINLY E OF A SYR-TOWANDA LINE FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. IN ADDTN...CLOUD CIGS SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE POCONOS...CATSKILLS AND HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN PA ABOVE 1800 FEET WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG. MOUNT POCONO
WAS 1/2SM FG...SO I SUSPECT FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ERN PART OF CWA IN GRIDS ABOVE
1800 FEET WHICH IS NOT MUCH...EXCEPT IN CATSKILLS. SINCE THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED WEST OF THIS CLOUD AND DRIZZLE LAYER (W OF
SYR-TOW) SKIES HAVE CLEARED. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
COOLER MARINE-LIKE CLOUD LAYER WILL STAY TO THE E OF THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDC FOR THE MOST PART.
THUS I WILL KEEP CLDS AND DRIZZLY/PATCHY HIGH ELEVATION FOG OUT
FINGER LAKES AND WEST OVERNIGHT
THE LOW-LEVEL SFC TO 925 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM THIS AM BY TURNING THE WINDS MORE
SWRLY WHICH WILL ADVECT THE DRIZZLY/LOW MOISTURE TO THE EAST INTO
ERN NY BY 18Z. THUS I MOVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE
CATSKILLS BY LATE MORNING.
THEN WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
GREAT LAKE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRNT. THE PV LOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES INTO NY AND NRN PA BY
18Z AND ACTUALLY DIGS INTO NY AND PA BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS
A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG LL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THE
850 MB FRONT TO ABT ROC-ELZ BY 18Z. THE 850 MB FRNT WILL THEN MOVE
EAST AND REACH UCA-BGM-TOW BY 21Z AND CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY 00Z
AND CLEAR ALL OF NE PA AND SE NY BY 03Z OR SO.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
TODAY. THE PRECIP THEN FIZZLES AS IT WORKS E OF C NY AND NE PA. THEN
THE STRG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850 MB FRNT TAKES OVER AND
LEADS TO PLENTY OF SC AND A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS TO -4C
BTWN 6Z AND 12Z THU. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND
16Z...WHICH GIVES A 20C DIFFERENTIAL. THIS IS EXTREME INSTABILITY.
THE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO WARM ESPECIALLY IF ENUF SENSIBLE AND
LATENT HEATING TAKES PLACE FROM THE LAKE WATERS WHICH IS ASSUMED.
IN THIS CASE...IT WUD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY EARLY LAKE SNOWS AT THIS
POINT IN NC NY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 280 DEGREE FLOW TONIGHT.
COLLABORATED WITH KBUF WFO ON LAKE RAIN SHOWERS POSITIONING
TONIGHT VIA ISC GRIDS. REST OF CWA WILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS BUT
LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM UPDATE...CDFNT WL COME RACING THRU ON WED WITH SCTD
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE BNDRY THRU THE CWA. H8 TEMPS RISE AHD OF
THIS FNT TO +5C WITH WAA AHD OF THE BNDRY WHICH WUD YIELD HIGHS IN
THE LWR 60S. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE WEST BHND THE FNT.
LK EFFECT SHOWERS WL KICK IN ON WED NGT WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT
BHND THE FNT. STEERING LAYER FLOW OF 270-290 DEGREES WL SPREAD SCTD
SHOWERS INTO NWRN ONEIDA/NRN MADISON AND NRN ONONDAGA COUNTIES WITH
QPF AMNTS OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES. AFT 06Z WINDS WL WEAKEN AND VARY FM
WRLY TO NWRLY AND AREA OF SHOWERS MAY EXTND INTO NRN OTSEGO CNTYS BY
MRNG.
DRG THE DAY THURSDAY, WINDS SHIFT ARND TO A SWRLY DIRECTION BRINGING
LINGERING LK EFFECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE CWA. NEXT IN A SERIES OF
CDFNTS WL APPCH THE AREA THUR NGT INTO FRI MRNG. EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
WL BE PRESENT AHD OF THE FNT...KEEPING OVRNT MINS ARND 40F. CHC POPS
WL MV INTO THE NRN ZONES BY 12Z FRI...CONTG IN NY STATE THRU 18Z BFR
FADING OUT AS UL WV WEAKENS AND MOST OF THE LIFT GOES OFF TO THE
NORTH IN CANADA AND SHEARS ITSELF OUT. SKIES WL CLR DRG THE AFTN AS
SFC HIPRES BUILDS OVR TOP OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM LOOKS GOOD. MODELS SIMILAR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
SATURDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMING SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WITH A WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLOW WARMING AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PTRN OVER THE MEDIUM RNG WITH S/WV`S PASSING EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS W/ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE XPCTD TO BE
CNTRD OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATER FRI NGT...AND CLEARING SKIES MAY
ALLOW FOR AN AREA-WIDE FROST/FREEZE AND AN OFFICIAL END TO THE
GROWING SEASON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD TO THE CST BY SUNDAY
EVNG...WITH A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED ON SAT. THE NXT S/WVS
APRCH FROM THE GTLAKES/OH VLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NGT WITH MORE -SHRA.
MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHO A STRAY -SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT SO WE RETAINED THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
A SOLID MARINE LAYER IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE ALSO BEING REPORTED. RME...BGM...AVP
WILL STAY UNDER A IFR/MVFR DECK UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AVP JUST ABOVE
1K FT AND WILL PROBABY FALL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z.
BGM ALREADY VERY LOW IFR AND AT FLIGHT MINIMUMS...ALSO EXPECTED TO
ADD SOME MVFR OR MAYBE IFR VSBY FOG TO THAT. RME MVFR CIGS AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE. LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUD EDGE
EXPECTED BUT ITH ON THIS EDGE SO COULD HAVE A MVFR CIG OR BE
CLEAR. ELM HAVING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM SURFACE WINDS COULD DROP TO
IFR IN VALLEY FOG. CONFIDENCE LOW SO HEDGED WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY 8 TO 12Z. THIS MARINE DECK SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE LATE AFTN BUT MOSTLY VFR. THIS EVENING LAKE
EFFECT SETS UP WITH A 280 FLOW. THIS MOSTLY AFFECTS RME AND MAYBE
SYR WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR. ITH AND BGM MAY ALSO HAVE MVFR CIGS
WITH THE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
SE TO S WINDS AT 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. AROUND 14Z
WINDS SHIFT TO S TO SW AT AROUND 10 KTS. COULD BE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTN. AROUND 21Z THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR...XCPT PSBL MVFR AT RME/SYR DUE TO LAKE CLDS/SHRA.
THU...VFR...BUT MVFR PSBL THU MRNG AT RME.
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA...OTRW IMPRVMNT
TO VFR LATE OR FRIDAY EVE.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA CHILLIER FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBGM 88D VWP SHOWS A LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 2
AND 7 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE A COOLER LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WHICH WAS SEEN WELL IN THE OBSERVATIONS AS A LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER. THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
AT 925 MB. IN CONTRAST...ABOVE THIS LAYER...THERE WERE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS WAS LEADING
TO SATURATION AND LO AND BEHOLD THE RADAR WAS SHOWG PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAINLY E OF A SYR-TOWANDA LINE FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. IN ADDTN...CLOUD CIGS SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE POCONOS...CATSKILLS AND HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN PA ABOVE 1800 FEET WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG. MOUNT POCONO
WAS 1/2SM FG...SO I SUSPECT FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ERN PART OF CWA IN GRIDS ABOVE
1800 FEET WHICH IS NOT MUCH...EXCEPT IN CATSKILLS. SINCE THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED WEST OF THIS CLOUD AND DRIZZLE LAYER (W OF
SYR-TOW) SKIES HAVE CLEARED. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
COOLER MARINE-LIKE CLOUD LAYER WILL STAY TO THE E OF THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDC FOR THE MOST PART.
THUS I WILL KEEP CLDS AND DRIZZLY/PATCHY HIGH ELEVATION FOG OUT
FINGER LAKES AND WEST OVERNIGHT
THE LOW-LEVEL SFC TO 925 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM THIS AM BY TURNING THE WINDS MORE
SWRLY WHICH WILL ADVECT THE DRIZZLY/LOW MOISTURE TO THE EAST INTO
ERN NY BY 18Z. THUS I MOVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE
CATSKILLS BY LATE MORNING.
THEN WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
GREAT LAKE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRNT. THE PV LOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES INTO NY AND NRN PA BY
18Z AND ACTUALLY DIGS INTO NY AND PA BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS
A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG LL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THE
850 MB FRONT TO ABT ROC-ELZ BY 18Z. THE 850 MB FRNT WILL THEN MOVE
EAST AND REACH UCA-BGM-TOW BY 21Z AND CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY 00Z
AND CLEAR ALL OF NE PA AND SE NY BY 03Z OR SO.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
TODAY. THE PRECIP THEN FIZZLES AS IT WORKS E OF C NY AND NE PA. THEN
THE STRG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850 MB FRNT TAKES OVER AND LEADS
TO PLENTY OF SC AND A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS TO -4C BTWN 6Z
AND 12Z THU. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND
16Z...WHICH GIVES A 20C DIFFERENTIAL. THIS IS EXTREME INSTABILITY.
THE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO WARM ESPECIALLY IF ENUF SENSIBLE AND
LATENT HEATING TAKES PLACE FROM THE LAKE WATERS WHICH IS ASSUMED.
IN THIS CASE...IT WUD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY EARLY LAKE SNOWS AT THIS
POINT IN NC NY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 280 DEGREE FLOW TONIGHT.
COLLABORATED WITH KBUF WFO ON LAKE RAIN SHOWERS POSITIONING
TONIGHT VIA ISC GRIDS. REST OF CWA WILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS BUT
LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...CDFNT WL COME RACING THRU ON WED WITH SCTD
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE BNDRY THRU THE CWA. H8 TEMPS RISE AHD OF
THIS FNT TO +5C WITH WAA AHD OF THE BNDRY WHICH WUD YIELD HIGHS IN
THE LWR 60S. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE WEST BHND THE FNT.
LK EFFECT SHOWERS WL KICK IN ON WED NGT WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT
BHND THE FNT. STEERING LAYER FLOW OF 270-290 DEGREES WL SPREAD SCTD
SHOWERS INTO NWRN ONEIDA/NRN MADISON AND NRN ONONDAGA COUNTIES WITH
QPF AMNTS OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES. AFT 06Z WINDS WL WEAKEN AND VARY FM
WRLY TO NWRLY AND AREA OF SHOWERS MAY EXTND INTO NRN OTSEGO CNTYS BY
MRNG.
DRG THE DAY THURSDAY, WINDS SHIFT ARND TO A SWRLY DIRECTION BRINGING
LINGERING LK EFFECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE CWA. NEXT IN A SERIES OF
CDFNTS WL APPCH THE AREA THUR NGT INTO FRI MRNG. EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
WL BE PRESENT AHD OF THE FNT...KEEPING OVRNT MINS ARND 40F. CHC POPS
WL MV INTO THE NRN ZONES BY 12Z FRI...CONTG IN NY STATE THRU 18Z BFR
FADING OUT AS UL WV WEAKENS AND MOST OF THE LIFT GOES OFF TO THE
NORTH IN CANADA AND SHEARS ITSELF OUT. SKIES WL CLR DRG THE AFTN AS
SFC HIPRES BUILDS OVR TOP OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PTRN OVER THE MEDIUM RNG WITH S/WV`S PASSING EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS W/ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE XPCTD TO BE
CNTRD OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATER FRI NGT...AND CLEARING SKIES
MAY ALLOW FOR AN AREA-WIDE FROST/FREEZE AND AN OFFICIAL END TO THE
GROWING SEASON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD TO THE CST BY SUNDAY
EVNG...WITH A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED ON SAT. THE NXT S/WVS
APRCH FROM THE GTLAKES/OH VLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NGT WITH MORE -SHRA.
MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHO A STRAY -SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT SO WE RETAINED THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING OVER MOST TERMINALS. MAIN
QUESTION AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS JUST HOW LOW
CIGS WILL GO AFTER 06Z. NEAR SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW BGM TO FALL BELOW IFR
THRESHOLDS THE SOONEST. AT AVP...SOUTHWEST WINDS TRADITIONALLY RESULT
IN LOW-END MVFR CIGS AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT SUGGESTION WITH THE
00Z ISSUANCE. THE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR BOTH BGM AND
AVP HINGES ON POSSIBLE -DZ ACTIVITY WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOWER CIGS
THAN CURRENTLY FCST. MEANWHILE AT BOTH ITH AND RME...SOUTHEAST
WINDS TRADITIONALLY FAVOR LITTLE IFR AT BOTH SITES AND HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN MVFR MENTION AT BOTH SITES. MARINE DECK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD BOTH SYR AND ELM OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WE
CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPING SHWRS
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HRS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR...XCPT PSBL MVFR AT RME/SYR DUE TO LAKE CLDS/SHRA.
THU...VFR...BUT MVFR PSBL THU MRNG AT RME.
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA...OTRW IMPRVMNT
TO VFR.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY QUIET WX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NWD MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF PATCHY STRATUS LAYER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AT 02Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
ACCORDINGLY. GENERALLY OVC FROM MPV SOUTHWARD...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND IS CAUSING LARGE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AT KSLK HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL TO 34F AT
02Z...MEANWHILE REMAINS 51F AT BTV WITH SE WINDS AND 51F AT VSF
WITH LOW OVERCAST IN PLACE THERE. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT OCCASIONAL BINOVC WILL CONTINUE. LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY NEAR FREEZING AT
KSLK. LIGHT SOUTH TO SE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MVG NWD FROM NERN PA INTO S-CENTRAL NY PER
MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING OF FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED POPS/QPF ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SMALL
ENVELOPE OF DRY AIR ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST..WITH NEXT RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE/VORT DIVING TWD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ATTM.
WEAK PRE-FRNTAL VORT AND RIBBON OF MOISTURE WL LIFT ACRS OUR
WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING...WITH LLVL ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTING AROUND HIGH PRES IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS OUR EASTERN ZNS
MTNS TONIGHT. CLOUD GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS WL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT. RUC13 925MB TO 700MB RH PROGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS THRU THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WL
MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S...MAYBE A
FEW 30S NORTHERN ZNS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD BE PC WITH TEMPS IN
U30S DACKS TO 40S CPV/SLV.
FOR WEDNESDAY...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RIBBON OF
MID LVL RH WL ENTER THE SLV AROUND 16Z...BE ACRS THE DACKS BTWN
18Z-20Z...CPV AROUND 21Z...AND THRU VT BY 02Z THURS. NAM12 SHOWS
GOOD 925MB FGEN FORCING...GOOD 850 TO 700MB RH/OMEGA FIELDS...AND
PWS VALUES NEAR 0.75"...WHICH WL RESULT IN A 1 TO 3 HR WINDOW OF
SHOWERS. FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION WL KEEP QPF AMOUNT GENERALLY <0.25"...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
ACRS THE MTNS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS
ACRS THE SLV/CPV WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. PROGGED 85H SOUTHWEST FLW OF 35 TO 40 KNTS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
WL LIMIT QPF/POP CHCS ACRS THE CPV ON WEDS. WL TREND TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
NEAR 11C. THINKING M50S MTNS TO M60S VALLEYS...WITH WARMEST READINGS
AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS BEHIND SFC
COLD FRNT...BUT STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING LOW PRES WL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR. GIVEN...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW BTWN 925MB AND
850MB...THINKING BEST LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ON WEDS NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLW AND LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB RH...MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDS NIGHT...AS 85H TEMPS COOL BLW 0C. GFS SOUNDINGS AT JAY PEAK
SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY THURS
MORNING FROM SUGARBUSH TO MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SOUNDINGS
SHOW WELL MIXED BL WITH CAA ACRS OUR CWA...WL MENTION LOWS FROM
THE U20S MTNS TO U30S VALLEYS AND L40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
ON THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BY 18Z...WITH RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLW DEVELOPING BY 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW ENHANCED
850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING THE SLV BY 18Z THURS AND SPREADING TWD THE
CPV BY 00Z FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID WAA AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA
THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD SFC
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING..WITH HIGHEST POPS/QPF CONCENTRATED ACRS THE MTNS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
FOR THURSDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C...BUT INCREASE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING/MIXING...THINKING U40S NEK TO NEAR 60F
CPV/SLV. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS FROM APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND WARMING LLVL THERMAL
PROFILES ON THURS NIGHT...WL MENTION LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...TWD FRIDAY MORNING LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 2000 FT WL BECM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SNOW. HAVE MENTION A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE CWA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS WARM
FRNTL BOUNDARY SWING THRU THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA SLOWLY ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF CWA TRAVELING EAST THRU QUEBEC
INTO MONDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH EXITING SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LATEST ECMWF DIGS UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY KEEP PRECIP LONGER OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE LATEST
GFS BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH RIDGE FROM GREAT LKS REGION.
IMPACTS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...
FRIDAY...MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LGT -RW...EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER
HIR TRRN AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF WITH WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME --SW
POSSIBLE AT 1500-2000` OR HIR FOR A FEW HRS IN THE MORNING...BECM
ALL -RW BFR ENDING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...CWA WILL RADIATE OUT UNDER CLR SKIES
FRI NGT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S CWA-WIDE.
COLDER TEMPS IN THE HILLS OF DACKS NE VT. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM UP WITH HGHS INTO THE MID50S AS
SSW FLOW INCR AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRNT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LGT PRECIP/CLDS INCR OVER N NY SAT NGT
OVERSPREADING CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. POSITIONING OF WARM FRNT ON
GFS/ECMWF EXTENT OF ANY -SW THAT DEMELOP OVE RHIR TRRN BFR GOING TO
ALL -RW. SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THRU SUN/SUN NGT AS PARENT LOW
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR -RW OVER AREA
THRU PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY W/ FRNT LIFTING N OF
CWA...PRECIP WILL SCT OUT SOME AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AREA. WILL BE
KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR -RW TRANSITIONING TO LGT -SW OVER HIR AS CD
AIR FILTERS INTO AREA UNDER NW. FOR NOW WITH MDL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT SL CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED BLW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES WITH RIDGE
OVERHD...AND INCR TO AT OR ABV NORMAL CONDITIONS DUE TO WARMER
AIRMASS WORKING INTO AREA W/ FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRODUCING A STRATUS
DECK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS DECK WILL RESULT IN VARYING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. KMPV AND KSLK EXPECTING TO EXPERIENCE
THE WORST...WITH LIFR AND VLIFR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE. KRUT EXPECT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITE...BUT DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO AS
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KBTV...KPBG...KMSS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES AT
BTV/PBG/MSS/SLK. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH EASTWARD LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AT KMPV AND KSLK.
SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 17Z AND PUSH
EAST TO KSLK AT 18Z...REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VT AROUND
20-21Z. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT PRECIP TO END WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR RAPIDLY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SW TO W...DECREASING IN SPEED AND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 12
KTS.
OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR FG/BR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR TRENDING MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
303 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...LEADING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
STRATUS REMAINS LOCKED IN BELOW THE INVERSION AT 850MB THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY PUSH OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY UP FROM SC ND SOUTHWESTERN
NC WHERE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
CLEARING LINE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KEHO TO KFLO...LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND COOLING MAY PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THE OH VALLEY REGION. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY RAPID
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BY
AROUND 14-16Z. THUS... MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A PLUME OF PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING IL/MO IS FORECAST UNDERGO QUITE A BIT OF DRYING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...UNDER FULL SUN AND A WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO NEAR 850MB YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM WEST TO EAST.
TONIGHT...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
FROPA. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE LOWS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH THE MAV MOS SHOWS UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...A LIGHT WIND AND DRYING THROUGH 12Z SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS WV AND WEAKEN OVER VA/NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WHICH YIELDS MOST MID AND UPPER 60S BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: FAIR AND CALM WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SITTING OVERHEAD. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BASE WILL MOVE INTO KY/TN OVERNIGHT... LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY A MATURE MCS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ACCELERATION FROM THE OH VALLEY
TOWARD VA/NC AND THE RESULTANT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE WILL BRING
ABOUT INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE JET`S LEFT EXIT REGION OVER
NC... WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A MAINTENANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS BLOWN OFF
FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPREADING INTO NC OVERNIGHT. THE NEARLY
CALM SURFACE AIR AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS ON
THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... 40-45... BUT WITH THE MILDER
TEMPS IN THE WEST WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FIRST TO ARRIVE.
WHILE A FEW UPPER 30S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW
SHELTERED AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT... A WIDESPREAD
FROST THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE SINKING TO THE SW FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO NJ
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SINK TO THE SE AND S... DROPPING THROUGH
NC FRIDAY NIGHT... PROPELLED BY THE COOL DENSE POST-FRONT AIR MASS
MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO PA... AND BY THE STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT AND THE PRECEDING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
925 MB FLOW. THE KY/TN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION DAMPENS OUT AND SKIRTS TO OUR SW... BUT WE SHOULD STILL
SEE A PERIOD OF THICKER CLOUDS PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SRN CWA
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT CLOUDS PASS OVER NC... THUS EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY AS MODELS
DEPICT INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E BENEATH THE WARM/STABLE LAYER
ALOFT (AROUND 700 MB). HAVE TRIMMED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF FORECAST
HIGHS... TO 71-76. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EVENING... SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY AND COULD
BE RATHER GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STABILIZATION IN
THE LOWEST 200 MB (AROUND 2 KM) CAPPED BY MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING AND THE HIGH THETA-E TRAPPED IN THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THIS STABLE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM 41 NORTH TO 47 SOUTH WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: DRY AND COOL. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW DIMINISHES AND BACKS TO WSW AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST... IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW NOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE... THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO
NOSE INTO NC AS IT PROGRESSES STEADILY EASTWARD OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND SUBSIDING... AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW
FLAT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER SUPPORTS
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-71. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THE RIDGE STILL EXTENDING BACK
INTO NC... THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING FETCH OF LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE NIGHTTIME COOLING/STABILIZATION
SUPPORTS POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
48-52.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED OPEN WAVE DAMPENS A
BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH AN INJECTION OF POLAR STREAM ENERGY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN IS APT TO RESTRENGTHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOMEWHERE
OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BE
(THE ECMWF IS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS).
WE`LL FIRST SEE THE LEE TROUGH DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL NC SUNDAY WITH
WARMING THICKNESSES... THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH NC
FROM THE NNW... EARLY MONDAY ON THE GFS AND NOT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY
ON THE ECMWF. GIVEN THIS STARK DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS WITH REDUCED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TO OUR NORTH... WILL MAKE
FEW CHANGES... HOLDING ONTO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS. WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED
SUFFICIENTLY DUE TO THE ATLANTIC INFLOW. WHICHEVER MODEL SOLUTION
ENDS UP MORE CORRECT (IF EITHER)... THE TRUE POLAR AIR WILL BE
LOCKED UP IN THE FAR NRN TIER AND CANADA... THUS NO WIDE SWINGS IN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EITHER WAY... AND THE LIMITED GULF MOISTURE WILL
FAVOR LOW PRECIP CHANCES. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM AM WEDNESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC
AS OF 05Z. SOME SCATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE
AROUND KINT/KGSO...WITH CEILINGS HOVERING JUST ABOVE 3K FT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT...THE DRYING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND/OR VERY LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
FURTHER EAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH
12Z...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN
09Z-12Z. DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
SHOULD THEN SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER
12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z.
A STEADY 8-12KT WESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...LEADING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
STRATUS REMAINS LOCKED IN BELOW THE INVERSION AT 850MB THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY PUSH OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY UP FROM SC ND SOUTHWESTERN
NC WHERE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
CLEARING LINE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KEHO TO KFLO...LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND COOLING MAY PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THE OH VALLEY REGION. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY RAPID
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BY
AROUND 14-16Z. THUS... MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A PLUME OF PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING IL/MO IS FORECAST UNDERGO QUITE A BIT OF DRYING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...UNDER FULL SUN AND A WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO NEAR 850MB YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM WEST TO EAST.
TONIGHT...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
FROPA. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE LOWS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH THE MAV MOS SHOWS UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...A LIGHT WIND AND DRYING THROUGH 12Z SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS WV AND WEAKEN OVER VA/NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WHICH YIELDS MOST MID AND UPPER 60S BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NE ZONES. HOWEVER... THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DECENT VORT
MAX IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A LIGHT RETURN SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO THE FROST POINT IN THE
NW AND N PIEDMONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD BE
FOUND IN THE NE ZONES WHERE IT MAY REMAIN CLEAR AND CALM ALL NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST MAINLY IN THE NE ZONES FROM
ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE.
ELSEWHERE... LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 40... WITH A SLOW RISE LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH ACROSS NC FRIDAY. WAA WILL
BE OFFSET BY AT LEAST SOME MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS. STILL... HIGHS
SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM W TO NNE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO DELIVER DRY/COOL ADVECTION FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS 40-45. HIGHS 67-72.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A DECIDED WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE MID-UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS QUICKLY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LOWS 45-50. HIGHS SUNDAY 75-80. MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGING AND A
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. LOWS 55-60 MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS 75-82.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM AM WEDNESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC
AS OF 05Z. SOME SCATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE
AROUND KINT/KGSO...WITH CEILINGS HOVERING JUST ABOVE 3K FT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT...THE DRYING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE MAY LEAD TO FOG AND/OR VERY LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
FURTHER EAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH
12Z...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN
09Z-12Z. DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
SHOULD THEN SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER
12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z.
A STEADY 8-12KT WESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1055 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1055 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN EASTERN KS CONTINUED TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR FROM THE WEST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IL...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROJECTIONS ON THE NAM...GFS AND HRRR ALL
POINT TO CONTINUED DRYING AND NO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT OF
CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 45-50 RANGE ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S ANTICIPATED. THE
SURFACE WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP PATCHY FROST CONFINED
TO EASTERN IL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MILLER
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE COLD
FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAINFALL AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS HAS
SHIFTED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN
HIGH WILL BUILD ACRS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET FOR SOME SCATTERED CU TO FORM
LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SFC WINDS START TO
BACK MORE INTO A WEST DIRECTION AFTR 20Z...AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND GENERALLY ARE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR HANDLING STRONG STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
MET AND MAV TEMPS SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY AND STAYED CLOSE TO.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRONG 995 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF JAMES BAY
CANADA HAD A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EXTREME SE IL/MO
AND HAS RECENTLY WENT THROUGH LAWRENCEVILLE AND MOUNT CARMEL
AIRPORTS OVER SOUTHEAST LAWRENCE COUNTY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
MARKED BY GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH AND MOST OF THE
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN IL HAVE
DISSIPATED. SHARP CLEARING LINE PROGESSING SE TOWARD A CHAMPAIGN
TO SHELBYVILLE LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD
REACH LAWRENCEVILLE BY SUNRISE (12Z/7 AM).
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA/KS TO SETTLE EAST INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY SUNSET BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S IN SE IL WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 1027 MB OVER EASTERN
KY AND WV BY DAWN THU AND TO BRING CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN IL WHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND PATCHY FROST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT ALONG WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THU NIGHT.
QPF FIELDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD AS WELL WITH AREAS NORTH
OF I-72 LIKELY STAYING DRY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72 AND BEST CHANCES SSW OF A TAYLORVILLE
TO ROBINSON LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
PUSHING THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
OVER NORTHERN/NE AREAS. HIGHS THU AND FRI IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG 560 DM 500 MB LOW STILL SPINNING OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
TO DIVE INTO SOUTHERN CA BY MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AND THEN EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN CO FRI AND DEEPENS NE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ECMWF AND GEM MODELS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
MODEL. FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DRIVEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE IL RIVER
VALLEY. LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN CONVECTION CHANCES LATER SAT
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SAT NIGHT AND LINGERING
OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE RISK STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT WHILE HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO BE NW OF CENTRAL IL OVER
IA/WI AND NW IL CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE TRACK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING LATER TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MULTI-LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT HAVE
SPREAD INTO...AND DEVELOPED OVER...EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO EXPANDED THE SPRINKLES THROUGH 8 AM FOR FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE CWA. OTHERWISE...TOOK THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TWEAK THE HOURLY T
AND TD GRIDS WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
...FROST ADVISORY AND A NW FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF MICHIGAN...ENTERING THE STATE OF KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MAINLY A DRY ONE ATTM WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WITH SOME TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A
SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE VALLEYS TO DROP
OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY CASE WHILE THE RIDGES HOLD IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 40S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO NOTED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALL CLEAR OUT TOWARD DAWN AS THE CLOUDS OF THE FRONT
MOVES IN ALONG WITH A STIRRING OF THE WIND FROM THE SOUTH. THE PICK
UP IN WINDS SHOULD ALSO MIX THE AIR MORE EFFECTIVELY AND ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPS TO RISE TOWARD DAWN.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
EFFECTS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY LATER TODAY AND SET UP A
REGIME OF SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS...BUT ALSO FAST AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...SLIGHT THAT THEY ARE...IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND THE RESOLUTION AND INTERNAL
MECHANICS OF THE MODELS THEMSELVES. ACCORDINGLY...THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAMDNG SHOW ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS
FRONT TO PRINT OUT SMALL POPS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS...ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF...
ARE DRY...INCLUDING THE RUC13. PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE IDEAS OF THE
HRRR WITH SOME ECMWF SUPPORT FOR POPS TODAY. AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF PCPN SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ATTM...SOME EXTRA
LIFT AVAILABLE COMING THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HERE...AND DECENT
DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS
SCENARIO FOR EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY. THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PCPN FROM THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OUT BY EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE WINDS GO LIGHT AND CALM AFTER SUNSET.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST NIGHT...ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY...OF THE YOUNG FALL
SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER THICK FROST A GOOD BET.
THE FROST ON TUESDAY MORNING ONLY REALLY AFFECTED LOCALIZED AREAS TO
OUR NORTHWEST WHILE FOG MANAGED TO PROTECT THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THEREFORE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF EAST KENTUCKY FROST WILL BE THE LARGER THREAT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
ABOUT HALF THE AREA AND FOR A JUST BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS DAWN. AS A
RESULT...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST THAT SAW MORE
FROST YESTERDAY MORNING AND KICK OFF A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA. WILL START THESE AT MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS SHOULD
DROP OFF FAST FOLLOWING SUNSET AND A SETTLING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD
DAWN OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT WIDESPREAD FROST CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. TO EASE ANY CONFUSION WITH THE TWO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR OUR AREA...BUT VERY SIMILAR EFFECTS
EXPECTED...WILL ISSUE THEM FOR THE SAME VALID TIMES FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 9 AM EDT. THURSDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AFTER A CHILLY START
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED A MIX OF THE INHERITED GRIDS...MAV GUIDANCE...AND
TERRAIN BASED EDITING FOR THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND OTHERWISE. AS
FOR POPS...AGAIN RAN HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S SLIGHT
CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
THE FIRST ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED CENTERS AROUND A
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS DUO...BRINGING THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...INVOKING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AS
IT TREKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LOOKING A
LITTLE BETTER THIS MORNING...AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY STILL DOES
NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THUNDER THROUGH THIS WINDOW. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ANY TSTMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND WELL BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD YIELDING
QUIETER WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...A CUTOFF
LOW STILL PARKED OFF THE COAST OF CA IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
DESERT SW BEFORE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
THIS FEATURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE ACCOMPANYING SFC REFLECTION USHERING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ABOUT THIS TIME...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A VERY LOOSE CONSENSUS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS
SOME STALLING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO ERN KY WITH THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF PAUSING OVER THE LENGTH OF THE MS VALLEY
WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROF BEFORE ULTIMATELY KICKING THE FRONT AND THE BULK OF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...A SOLID CONSENSUS BECOMES NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO COME BY.
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS LIMITED
TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST AS A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE ODD
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT
AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...
THERE WILL BE A SOLID WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND PICK UP A NOTCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND STAYING
UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
635 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MULTI-LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT HAVE
SPREAD INTO...AND DEVELOPED OVER...EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO EXPANDED THE SPRINKLES THROUGH 8 AM FOR FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE CWA. OTHERWISE...TOOK THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TWEAK THE HOURLY T
AND TD GRIDS WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
...FROST ADVISORY AND A NW FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF MICHIGAN...ENTERING THE STATE OF KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MAINLY A DRY ONE ATTM WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WITH SOME TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A
SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE VALLEYS TO DROP
OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY CASE WHILE THE RIDGES HOLD IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 40S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO NOTED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALL CLEAR OUT TOWARD DAWN AS THE CLOUDS OF THE FRONT
MOVES IN ALONG WITH A STIRRING OF THE WIND FROM THE SOUTH. THE PICK
UP IN WINDS SHOULD ALSO MIX THE AIR MORE EFFECTIVELY AND ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPS TO RISE TOWARD DAWN.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
EFFECTS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY LATER TODAY AND SET UP A
REGIME OF SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS...BUT ALSO FAST AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...SLIGHT THAT THEY ARE...IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND THE RESOLUTION AND INTERNAL
MECHANICS OF THE MODELS THEMSELVES. ACCORDINGLY...THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAMDNG SHOW ENOUGH OOMPH WITH THIS
FRONT TO PRINT OUT SMALL POPS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS...ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF...
ARE DRY...INCLUDING THE RUC13. PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE IDEAS OF THE
HRRR WITH SOME ECMWF SUPPORT FOR POPS TODAY. AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF PCPN SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ATTM...SOME EXTRA
LIFT AVAILABLE COMING THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HERE...AND DECENT
DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS
SCENARIO FOR EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY. THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT PCPN FROM THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OUT BY EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE WINDS GO LIGHT AND CALM AFTER SUNSET.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST NIGHT...ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY...OF THE YOUNG FALL
SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER THICK FROST A GOOD BET.
THE FROST ON TUESDAY MORNING ONLY REALLY AFFECTED LOCALIZED AREAS TO
OUR NORTHWEST WHILE FOG MANAGED TO PROTECT THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THEREFORE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF EAST KENTUCKY FROST WILL BE THE LARGER THREAT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
ABOUT HALF THE AREA AND FOR A JUST BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS DAWN. AS A
RESULT...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST THAT SAW MORE
FROST YESTERDAY MORNING AND KICK OFF A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA. WILL START THESE AT MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS SHOULD
DROP OFF FAST FOLLOWING SUNSET AND A SETTLING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD
DAWN OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT WIDESPREAD FROST CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. TO EASE ANY CONFUSION WITH THE TWO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR OUR AREA...BUT VERY SIMILAR EFFECTS
EXPECTED...WILL ISSUE THEM FOR THE SAME VALID TIMES FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 9 AM EDT. THURSDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AFTER A CHILLY START
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED A MIX OF THE INHERITED GRIDS...MAV GUIDANCE...AND
TERRAIN BASED EDITING FOR THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND OTHERWISE. AS
FOR POPS...AGAIN RAN HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S SLIGHT
CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
THE FIRST ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED CENTERS AROUND A
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS DUO...BRINGING THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...INVOKING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AS
IT TREKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LOOKING A
LITTLE BETTER THIS MORNING...AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY STILL DOES
NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THUNDER THROUGH THIS WINDOW. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ANY TSTMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND WELL BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD YIELDING
QUIETER WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...A CUTOFF
LOW STILL PARKED OFF THE COAST OF CA IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
DESERT SW BEFORE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
THIS FEATURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE ACCOMPANYING SFC REFLECTION USHERING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ABOUT THIS TIME...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A VERY LOOSE CONSENSUS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS
SOME STALLING OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO ERN KY WITH THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF PAUSING OVER THE LENGTH OF THE MS VALLEY
WHILE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROF BEFORE ULTIMATELY KICKING THE FRONT AND THE BULK OF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...A SOLID CONSENSUS BECOMES NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO COME BY.
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS LIMITED
TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
ALMOST ALL OF THE MVFR STRATOCU HAS DISSIPATED OVER OUR EAST...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ANY FOG FOUND ONLY
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. TOWARD DAWN...MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PUSH BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AS A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE ODD CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT AND WILL EXIT WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A SOLID
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND PICK UP A NOTCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY...TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND STAYING UP BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CREATE A
MINOR SHEAR CONCERN AS THEY ARE RUNNING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2K FEET OFF THE SFC.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
911 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OFFSHORE TODAY WELL EAST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
ON MONDAY, PULLING ITS ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE... RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY AND
LIKELY MAKE FOR A RAINY DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO POP FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL NORTHWARD AS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH
MOVES EAST. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS TREND
IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR
TODAY THAN THE NAM. LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 13Z-
14Z...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING.
HAVE UPDATED MARINE SECTION BELOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
INCREASING GRADIENT MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE GUSTS INTO GALE FORCE
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS AROUND 6 KFT WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT THE REGION
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE COAST. IN ADDITION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONSOLIDATE
MOISTURE IN OUR REGION...TRIGGERING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.
BLENDED THE MUCH WARMER MET NUMBERS WITH THE COOLER MAVS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH...THEN PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHEST POPS ONCE
AGAIN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. IT IS THESE AREAS THAT WILL
ALSO HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...AND THE LINGERING THREAT OF A
SHOWER...DUE TO THE UPSLOPING CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM RACES TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE RIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH A SURFACE
REFLECTION A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY PULLING ITS ASSOCIATED WARM AND
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TODAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...
FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS STILL RUNNING HIGH ALONG THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...HENCE THE SCA CONTINUES. SCAS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
ALONG AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
GRADIENT.
LONG TERM...
FRI...A SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND SEAS IS POSSIBLE.
SUN...A SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND SEAS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1008 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CHILLIER FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
DRIZZLE AND OCNL PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN RMNS TO THE
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR THIS MRNG UNDER MARINE LAYER. 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS MARINE LYR WL HANG IN UNTIL 17Z-18Z BFR H9
WINDS SHIFT ARND TO THE SW AHD OF THE APPCHG CDFNT. THIS SFC BNDRY
IS RAPIDLY MVG THRU OH AT THIS HR WITH AN AREA OF ISOLD SHOWERS
AND/OR VIRGA WORKING INTO WRN NY AHD OF IT. CUD SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO OUT OF THIS DECK AS THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT INSISTENT ON THIS
AREA OF PCPN, THUS HV TWEAKED POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCNT FOR THIS.
THIS FNT WL WORK THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA LTR THIS
AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NY STATE BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING DOWN
INTO NEPA. MIDNIGHT SHIFT ACCNTD FOR THIS IN THE POPS GRIDS SO NO
NEED TO CHG THE LATER HRS TDA AND WL LET THEM RIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
KBGM 88D VWP SHOWS A LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 2
AND 7 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE A COOLER LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WHICH WAS SEEN WELL IN THE OBSERVATIONS AS A
LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER. THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AT 925 MB. IN CONTRAST...ABOVE THIS LAYER...THERE WERE
DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS
WAS LEADING TO SATURATION AND LO AND BEHOLD THE RADAR WAS SHOWG
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY E OF A SYR-TOWANDA LINE FLOWING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. IN ADDTN...CLOUD
CIGS SUGGESTS THAT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE POCONOS...CATSKILLS AND
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN PA ABOVE 1800 FEET WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG.
MOUNT POCONO WAS 1/2SM FG...SO I SUSPECT FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ERN PART OF CWA IN GRIDS
ABOVE 1800 FEET WHICH IS NOT MUCH...EXCEPT IN CATSKILLS. SINCE THE
LOW- LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED WEST OF THIS CLOUD AND DRIZZLE LAYER
(W OF SYR-TOW) SKIES HAVE CLEARED. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGE
SUGGESTS COOLER MARINE-LIKE CLOUD LAYER WILL STAY TO THE E OF
THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDC FOR THE
MOST PART. THUS I WILL KEEP CLDS AND DRIZZLY/PATCHY HIGH ELEVATION
FOG OUT FINGER LAKES AND WEST OVERNIGHT
THE LOW-LEVEL SFC TO 925 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM THIS AM BY TURNING THE WINDS MORE
SWRLY WHICH WILL ADVECT THE DRIZZLY/LOW MOISTURE TO THE EAST INTO
ERN NY BY 18Z. THUS I MOVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE
CATSKILLS BY LATE MORNING.
THEN WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
GREAT LAKE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRNT. THE PV LOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES INTO NY AND NRN PA BY
18Z AND ACTUALLY DIGS INTO NY AND PA BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS
A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG LL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THE
850 MB FRONT TO ABT ROC-ELZ BY 18Z. THE 850 MB FRNT WILL THEN MOVE
EAST AND REACH UCA-BGM-TOW BY 21Z AND CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY 00Z
AND CLEAR ALL OF NE PA AND SE NY BY 03Z OR SO.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
TODAY. THE PRECIP THEN FIZZLES AS IT WORKS E OF C NY AND NE PA. THEN
THE STRG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850 MB FRNT TAKES OVER AND
LEADS TO PLENTY OF SC AND A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS TO -4C
BTWN 6Z AND 12Z THU. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND
16Z...WHICH GIVES A 20C DIFFERENTIAL. THIS IS EXTREME INSTABILITY.
THE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO WARM ESPECIALLY IF ENUF SENSIBLE AND
LATENT HEATING TAKES PLACE FROM THE LAKE WATERS WHICH IS ASSUMED.
IN THIS CASE...IT WUD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY EARLY LAKE SNOWS AT THIS
POINT IN NC NY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 280 DEGREE FLOW TONIGHT.
COLLABORATED WITH KBUF WFO ON LAKE RAIN SHOWERS POSITIONING
TONIGHT VIA ISC GRIDS. REST OF CWA WILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS BUT
LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NRN
NY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT REACHES THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE W-SW IT WILL DRY OUT SO I
SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY FALL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS...EURO...CMC AND NAM ALL
BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING A BIT WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
CLDS AND SHOWERS DOWN...THE NAM IS SLOWEST WITH THE EURO AND CMC A
COMPROMISE. WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE FOR NOW AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND
BEHIND FROPA THU NGT AND FRI AM. THEN I CAN SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LINGERING DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO AT
LEAST THRU FRI AM. BY FRI PM AND FRI NGT...LARGE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND MANY OF OUR TREES ARE EITHER AT PEAK COLORS WITH QUITE A FEW
ALREADY DROPPED ALREADY. THEREFORE LITTLE TO NO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN SO I COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ENTIRE CWA SAT AM...MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S.
COLDEST VALLEYS POSSIBLY EVEN FLIRTING WITH UPPER TEENS. KELM MEX
GUIDC SHOWING MIN OF 23 SAT WITH THE EURO GUIDC GOING FOR 25 AT
KELM. WE HAVE RURAL SPOTS THAT GET EVEN LOWER THAN ELM. ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF THERE IS SOME PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WHICH WUD HOLD TEMPS UP. IF IT HOLDS CLEAR WE LIKELY WILL HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OR EVEN HARD FREEZE. RECORD MINIMUMS COULD BE
CHALLENGED. WILL HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR SATURDAY
AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM LOOKS GOOD. MODELS SIMILAR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
SATURDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMING SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WITH A WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLOW WARMING AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PTRN OVER THE MEDIUM RNG WITH S/WV`S PASSING EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS W/ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE XPCTD TO BE
CNTRD OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATER FRI NGT...AND CLEARING SKIES MAY
ALLOW FOR AN AREA-WIDE FROST/FREEZE AND AN OFFICIAL END TO THE
GROWING SEASON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD TO THE CST BY SUNDAY
EVNG...WITH A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED ON SAT. THE NXT S/WVS
APRCH FROM THE GTLAKES/OH VLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NGT WITH MORE -SHRA.
MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHO A STRAY -SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT SO WE RETAINED THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
A SOLID MARINE LAYER IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. MORE LOW VFR CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SW AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AVP AND BGM EAST. RME...BGM...AVP WILL STAY UNDER A
IFR/MVFR DECK UNTIL AROUND 16Z. AVP JUST ABOVE 1K FT AND COULD
FALL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO 12 TO 14Z. BGM ALREADY VERY LOW IFR AND AT
FLIGHT MINIMUMS...ALSO EXPECTED SOME MVFR OR MAYBE IFR VSBY FOG.
RME MVFR CIGS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE. ELM AND ITH HAVE A 5K
FT CIG WHICH SHOULD STAY MOST OF THE MORNING. COULD SCATTER
BRIEFLY MIDDAY. THIS MARINE DECK SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE LATE AFTN BUT MOSTLY VFR. THIS EVENING LAKE
EFFECT SETS UP WITH A 280 FLOW. THIS MOSTLY AFFECTS RME AND MAYBE
SYR WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR. ITH AND BGM MAY ALSO HAVE MVFR CIGS
WITH THE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS LAKE EFFECT LASTS MOST OF
THE NIGHT.
SE TO S WINDS AT 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. AROUND 14Z
WINDS SHIFT TO S TO SW AT AROUND 10 KTS. COULD BE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTN. AROUND 21Z THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO W. WEST WINDS TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR...BUT MVFR PSBL THU MRNG AT RME.
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA...OTRW IMPRVMNT
TO VFR LATE OR FRIDAY EVE.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER
13TH. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. RECORD LOWS THAT COULD BE CHALLENGED ARE
AS FOLLOWS:
RECORD (YEAR) SAT AM FORECAST LOW
GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT 28 (1993) 30
SCRANTON/WILKES BARRE AIRPORT 29 (1993) 30
SYRACUSE AIRPORT 29 (2006) 31
ITHACA AIRPORT 25 (1964) 28
ELMIRA/CORNING AIRPORT 25 (1951) 26
ROME/GRIFFIS AIRPORT 26 (1993) 27
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CHILLIER FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBGM 88D VWP SHOWS A LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 2
AND 7 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE A COOLER LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WHICH WAS SEEN WELL IN THE OBSERVATIONS AS A LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER. THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
AT 925 MB. IN CONTRAST...ABOVE THIS LAYER...THERE WERE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS WAS LEADING
TO SATURATION AND LO AND BEHOLD THE RADAR WAS SHOWG PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAINLY E OF A SYR-TOWANDA LINE FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. IN ADDTN...CLOUD CIGS SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE POCONOS...CATSKILLS AND HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN PA ABOVE 1800 FEET WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG. MOUNT POCONO
WAS 1/2SM FG...SO I SUSPECT FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. PUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ERN PART OF CWA IN GRIDS ABOVE
1800 FEET WHICH IS NOT MUCH...EXCEPT IN CATSKILLS. SINCE THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED WEST OF THIS CLOUD AND DRIZZLE LAYER (W OF
SYR-TOW) SKIES HAVE CLEARED. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
COOLER MARINE-LIKE CLOUD LAYER WILL STAY TO THE E OF THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDC FOR THE MOST PART.
THUS I WILL KEEP CLDS AND DRIZZLY/PATCHY HIGH ELEVATION FOG OUT
FINGER LAKES AND WEST OVERNIGHT
THE LOW-LEVEL SFC TO 925 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM THIS AM BY TURNING THE WINDS MORE
SWRLY WHICH WILL ADVECT THE DRIZZLY/LOW MOISTURE TO THE EAST INTO
ERN NY BY 18Z. THUS I MOVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE
CATSKILLS BY LATE MORNING.
THEN WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
GREAT LAKE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRNT. THE PV LOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES INTO NY AND NRN PA BY
18Z AND ACTUALLY DIGS INTO NY AND PA BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS
A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG LL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THE
850 MB FRONT TO ABT ROC-ELZ BY 18Z. THE 850 MB FRNT WILL THEN MOVE
EAST AND REACH UCA-BGM-TOW BY 21Z AND CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY 00Z
AND CLEAR ALL OF NE PA AND SE NY BY 03Z OR SO.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
TODAY. THE PRECIP THEN FIZZLES AS IT WORKS E OF C NY AND NE PA. THEN
THE STRG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850 MB FRNT TAKES OVER AND
LEADS TO PLENTY OF SC AND A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS TO -4C
BTWN 6Z AND 12Z THU. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND
16Z...WHICH GIVES A 20C DIFFERENTIAL. THIS IS EXTREME INSTABILITY.
THE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO WARM ESPECIALLY IF ENUF SENSIBLE AND
LATENT HEATING TAKES PLACE FROM THE LAKE WATERS WHICH IS ASSUMED.
IN THIS CASE...IT WUD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY EARLY LAKE SNOWS AT THIS
POINT IN NC NY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 280 DEGREE FLOW TONIGHT.
COLLABORATED WITH KBUF WFO ON LAKE RAIN SHOWERS POSITIONING
TONIGHT VIA ISC GRIDS. REST OF CWA WILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS BUT
LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NRN
NY AS THE LOW-LEVE FLOW BACKS TO MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT REACHES THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE W-SW IT WILL DRY OUT SO I
SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY FALL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS...EURO...CMC AND NAM ALL
BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING A BIT WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
CLDS AND SHOWERS DOWN...THE NAM IS SLOWEST WITH THE EURO AND CMC A
COMPRIMISE. WILL GO WITH THE COMPRIMISE FOR NOW AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND
BEHIND FROPA THU NGT AND FRI AM. THEN I CAN SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LINGERING DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO AT
LEAST THRU FRI AM. BY FRI PM AND FRI NGT...LARGE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND MANY OF OUR TREES ARE EITHER AT PEAK COLORS WITH QUITE A FEW
ALREADY DROPPED ALREADY. THEREFORE LITTLE TO NO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN SO I COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ENTIRE CWA SAT AM...MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S.
COLDEST VALLEYS POSSIBLY EVEN FLIRTING WITH UPPER TEENS. KELM MEX
GUIDC SHOWING MIN OF 23 SAT WITH THE EURO GUIDC GOING FOR 25 AT
KELM. WE HAVE RURAL SPOTS THAT GET EVEN LOWER THAN ELM. ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF THERE IS SOME PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WHICH WUD HOLD TEMPS UP. IF IT HOLDS CLEAR WE LIKELY WILL HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OR EVEN HARD FREEZE. RECORD MINIMUMS COULD BE
CHALLENGED. WILL HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR SATURDAY
AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM LOOKS GOOD. MODELS SIMILAR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
SATURDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMING SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WITH A WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLOW WARMING AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PTRN OVER THE MEDIUM RNG WITH S/WV`S PASSING EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS W/ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE XPCTD TO BE
CNTRD OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATER FRI NGT...AND CLEARING SKIES MAY
ALLOW FOR AN AREA-WIDE FROST/FREEZE AND AN OFFICIAL END TO THE
GROWING SEASON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD TO THE CST BY SUNDAY
EVNG...WITH A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED ON SAT. THE NXT S/WVS
APRCH FROM THE GTLAKES/OH VLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NGT WITH MORE -SHRA.
MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHO A STRAY -SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT SO WE RETAINED THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
A SOLID MARINE LAYER IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. MORE LOW VFR CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SW AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST. SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AVP AND BGM EAST. RME...BGM...AVP WILL STAY UNDER A
IFR/MVFR DECK UNTIL AROUND 16Z. AVP JUST ABOVE 1K FT AND COULD
FALL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO 12 TO 14Z. BGM ALREADY VERY LOW IFR AND AT
FLIGHT MINIMUMS...ALSO EXPECTED SOME MVFR OR MAYBE IFR VSBY FOG.
RME MVFR CIGS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE. ELM AND ITH HAVE A 5K
FT CIG WHICH SHOULD STAY MOST OF THE MORNING. COULD SCATTER
BRIEFLY MIDDAY. THIS MARINE DECK SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE LATE AFTN BUT MOSTLY VFR. THIS EVENING LAKE
EFFECT SETS UP WITH A 280 FLOW. THIS MOSTLY AFFECTS RME AND MAYBE
SYR WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR. ITH AND BGM MAY ALSO HAVE MVFR CIGS
WITH THE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS LAKE EFFECT LASTS MOST OF
THE NIGHT.
SE TO S WINDS AT 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. AROUND 14Z
WINDS SHIFT TO S TO SW AT AROUND 10 KTS. COULD BE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTN. AROUND 21Z THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO W. WEST WINDS TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR...BUT MVFR PSBL THU MRNG AT RME.
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA...OTRW IMPRVMNT
TO VFR LATE OR FRIDAY EVE.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER
13TH. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. RECORD LOWS THAT COULD BE CHALLENGED ARE
AS FOLLOWS:
RECORD (YEAR) SAT AM FORECAST LOW
GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT 28 (1993) 30
SCRANTON/WILKE BARRE AIRPORT 29 (1993) 30
SYRACUSE AIRPORT 29 (2006) 31
ITHACA AIRPORT 25 (1964) 28
ELMIRA/CORNING AIRPORT 25 (1951) 26
ROME/GRIFFIS AIRPORT 26 (1993) 27
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...LEADING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
STRATUS REMAINS LOCKED IN BELOW THE INVERSION AT 850MB THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY PUSH OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY UP FROM SC ND SOUTHWESTERN
NC WHERE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
CLEARING LINE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KEHO TO KFLO...LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND COOLING MAY PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THE OH VALLEY REGION. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY RAPID
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BY
AROUND 14-16Z. THUS... MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A PLUME OF PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING IL/MO IS FORECAST UNDERGO QUITE A BIT OF DRYING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...UNDER FULL SUN AND A WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO NEAR 850MB YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM WEST TO EAST.
TONIGHT...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
FROPA. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE LOWS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH THE MAV MOS SHOWS UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...A LIGHT WIND AND DRYING THROUGH 12Z SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS WV AND WEAKEN OVER VA/NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WHICH YIELDS MOST MID AND UPPER 60S BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: FAIR AND CALM WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SITTING OVERHEAD. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BASE WILL MOVE INTO KY/TN OVERNIGHT... LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY A MATURE MCS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ACCELERATION FROM THE OH VALLEY
TOWARD VA/NC AND THE RESULTANT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE WILL BRING
ABOUT INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE JET`S LEFT EXIT REGION OVER
NC... WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A MAINTENANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS BLOWN OFF
FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPREADING INTO NC OVERNIGHT. THE NEARLY
CALM SURFACE AIR AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS ON
THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... 40-45... BUT WITH THE MILDER
TEMPS IN THE WEST WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FIRST TO ARRIVE.
WHILE A FEW UPPER 30S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW
SHELTERED AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT... A WIDESPREAD
FROST THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE SINKING TO THE SW FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO NJ
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SINK TO THE SE AND S... DROPPING THROUGH
NC FRIDAY NIGHT... PROPELLED BY THE COOL DENSE POST-FRONT AIR MASS
MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO PA... AND BY THE STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT AND THE PRECEDING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
925 MB FLOW. THE KY/TN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION DAMPENS OUT AND SKIRTS TO OUR SW... BUT WE SHOULD STILL
SEE A PERIOD OF THICKER CLOUDS PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SRN CWA
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT CLOUDS PASS OVER NC... THUS EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY AS MODELS
DEPICT INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E BENEATH THE WARM/STABLE LAYER
ALOFT (AROUND 700 MB). HAVE TRIMMED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF FORECAST
HIGHS... TO 71-76. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EVENING... SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY AND COULD
BE RATHER GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STABILIZATION IN
THE LOWEST 200 MB (AROUND 2 KM) CAPPED BY MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING AND THE HIGH THETA-E TRAPPED IN THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THIS STABLE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM 41 NORTH TO 47 SOUTH WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: DRY AND COOL. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW DIMINISHES AND BACKS TO WSW AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST... IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW NOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE... THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO
NOSE INTO NC AS IT PROGRESSES STEADILY EASTWARD OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND SUBSIDING... AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW
FLAT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER SUPPORTS
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-71. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THE RIDGE STILL EXTENDING BACK
INTO NC... THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING FETCH OF LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE NIGHTTIME COOLING/STABILIZATION
SUPPORTS POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
48-52.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED OPEN WAVE DAMPENS A
BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH AN INJECTION OF POLAR STREAM ENERGY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN IS APT TO RESTRENGTHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOMEWHERE
OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BE
(THE ECMWF IS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS).
WE`LL FIRST SEE THE LEE TROUGH DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL NC SUNDAY WITH
WARMING THICKNESSES... THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH NC
FROM THE NNW... EARLY MONDAY ON THE GFS AND NOT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY
ON THE ECMWF. GIVEN THIS STARK DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS WITH REDUCED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TO OUR NORTH... WILL MAKE
FEW CHANGES... HOLDING ONTO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS. WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED
SUFFICIENTLY DUE TO THE ATLANTIC INFLOW. WHICHEVER MODEL SOLUTION
ENDS UP MORE CORRECT (IF EITHER)... THE TRUE POLAR AIR WILL BE
LOCKED UP IN THE FAR NRN TIER AND CANADA... THUS NO WIDE SWINGS IN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EITHER WAY... AND THE LIMITED GULF MOISTURE WILL
FAVOR LOW PRECIP CHANCES. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WEDNESDAY...
LOW STRATUS IS CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLEARING HAS PASSED BY
KFAY/KINT/KGSO...THOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF 2500 FT STRATUS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 14Z. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AT KRDU BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
AT KRWI BY 15Z. STEADY 8-12KT WESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BACKING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z. FROPA
SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z-04Z...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH BASED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE WATCHING PCPN HEADING INTO THE FA LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE PCPN TYPE
AND WHETHER THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. RIGHT NOW HAVE A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW FALLING AT MINOT WITH LIGHT SNOW UP IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AND IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
SASKATCHEWAN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED A LITTLE WITH
EXACTLY WHERE THE MOST PCPN WILL FALL AND THIS IS ALWAYS TOUGH
WHEN IT COULD BE SUCH A THIN BAND. LATEST NAM AND RAP DO NOT
DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE FORECAST HAS GOING...KEEPING THE
MAIN BAND KIND OF ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. SEEING A LITTLE
SUNSHINE NOW AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP ENOUGH
FOR MOST OF THE FA SO IT WILL STAY AS RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE THE
COLDEST UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THIS AREA AND MONITOR IF ANY EXPANDING OF THE
SNOW AREA NEEDS TO BE MADE. COULD BE SOME WHITE ACCUMULATION IN
GRASSY AREAS IN THIS AREA TOO. IF PCPN BAND GOES FURTHER SOUTH
WOULD ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH PRECIP SINCE YESTERDAYS RUN. THE NAM AND
AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED TO A NORTHERN SOLUTION SINCE YESTERDAY. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM AK TO IA. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH THU BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS THIS PERIOD.
MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE UNDER ZERO CELSIUS FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR TODAY WITH SOME DYNAMIC
COOLING. WILL GO FOR AN INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW FOR TODAY. LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW MOVES MOSTLY INTO MN THIS EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THU. THE NEXT OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN SOMEWHAT FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH YESTERDAYS
12Z AND NOW TODAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE LESSENED THE QPF ON SATURDAY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE REALLY TRENDED TO
THE SE WITH PCPN PLACEMENT ENOUGH SO THAT THE SE ZONES MAY BE
COMPLETELY DRY...WILL REDUCE LIKELY POPS DOWN TO CHC AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PLACEMENT TRENDS. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM MORE SUN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND HIGHS A BIT WARMER AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH.
ON SUNDAY 00Z MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES IN THE FAST QUASI ZONAL 500MB FLOW THRU TUESDAY. KEPT
WEAK POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUN NIGHT TO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
700 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST NAM
AND RUC MODELS...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS
IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS POSITION. THE DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL
AND WOULD RESULT IN A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A GFS SOLUTION. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM/ECMWF/RUC SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GOING
FORECAST. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...MAINLY TO
LOWER CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND POPULATE WITH THE
LATEST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN EXIT SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISN TO KJMS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THIS REGION WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT TRACKS
FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HIT LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES HARDEST AT KMOT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040>045.
&&
$$
TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
847 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ON FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA
SUGGESTS THAT WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY.
HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHICH IS STILL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SOME OF THE DATA COMING IN WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...
THIS WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER NOT BREAKING AT
ALL...SO WILL GET A FEEL ON THAT BEFORE DROPPING READINGS EVEN
MORE.
WILL WATCH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS...AND FULLY EXPECT
TO SEE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THAT
POSITION AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
WATCHING AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. LOOKS LIKE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE KSJT AND THE KABI TERMINALS. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY...AND WILL START KABI WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN RISING TO LOW
END VFR BY 16Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...SOME LOW END VFR CIGS REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT(850MB JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS). EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z THU.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO A POSITION NEAR OUR
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS ARE NORTH
AT 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS STALL THE
FRONT NEAR OUR INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY...AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 70 TO 73 RANGE. FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
NOT BE AS DOMINATE. THUS...HIGHS ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MOIST
UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES AS A WARM FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL HELP
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DOMINATE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MOISTURE RETURN TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. THUS...I BELIEVE THE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IF LATER MODEL RUNS MOVE THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTH...THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HUBER
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM STILL LOOK PROMISING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT
WILL PEAK. ALSO...THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE BEST PERIODS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 18Z ON SATURDAY.
AGAIN...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY IS WORTH AT LEAST A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...INTO NEXT TUESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
HUBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 68 62 83 66 82 / 5 10 20 10 20
SAN ANGELO 76 65 82 68 83 / 5 20 20 10 20
JUNCTION 80 69 80 70 82 / 5 20 20 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1055 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN EASTERN KS CONTINUED TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR FROM THE WEST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IL...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROJECTIONS ON THE NAM...GFS AND HRRR ALL
POINT TO CONTINUED DRYING AND NO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT OF
CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 45-50 RANGE ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S ANTICIPATED. THE
SURFACE WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP PATCHY FROST CONFINED
TO EASTERN IL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN WEST CENTRAL MO WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE...
SO ONLY A FEW LOW TOPPED CU ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL IL AROUND
SUNSET...SO THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE
LOW ATMOSPHERE TO DROP THE WINDS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO 00Z.
AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST AROUND 04-06Z...THE WIND
WILL CONTINUE BACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT.
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE
NAM BUFKIT IS INDICATING PLENTY OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...SO AM EXPECTING A SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING AROUND 25
MPH AFTER 15Z.
MILLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND GENERALLY ARE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR HANDLING STRONG STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
MET AND MAV TEMPS SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY AND STAYED CLOSE TO.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRONG 995 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF JAMES BAY
CANADA HAD A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EXTREME SE IL/MO
AND HAS RECENTLY WENT THROUGH LAWRENCEVILLE AND MOUNT CARMEL
AIRPORTS OVER SOUTHEAST LAWRENCE COUNTY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
MARKED BY GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH AND MOST OF THE
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN IL HAVE
DISSIPATED. SHARP CLEARING LINE PROGESSING SE TOWARD A CHAMPAIGN
TO SHELBYVILLE LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD
REACH LAWRENCEVILLE BY SUNRISE (12Z/7 AM).
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA/KS TO SETTLE EAST INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY SUNSET BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH
COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S IN SE IL WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 1027 MB OVER EASTERN
KY AND WV BY DAWN THU AND TO BRING CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN IL WHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND PATCHY FROST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT ALONG WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THU NIGHT.
QPF FIELDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD AS WELL WITH AREAS NORTH
OF I-72 LIKELY STAYING DRY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72 AND BEST CHANCES SSW OF A TAYLORVILLE
TO ROBINSON LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
PUSHING THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
OVER NORTHERN/NE AREAS. HIGHS THU AND FRI IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG 560 DM 500 MB LOW STILL SPINNING OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
TO DIVE INTO SOUTHERN CA BY MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AND THEN EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN CO FRI AND DEEPENS NE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ECMWF AND GEM MODELS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
MODEL. FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DRIVEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE IL RIVER
VALLEY. LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN CONVECTION CHANCES LATER SAT
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SAT NIGHT AND LINGERING
OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE RISK STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT WHILE HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO BE NW OF CENTRAL IL OVER
IA/WI AND NW IL CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE TRACK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING LATER TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WX/SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT PERIOD...TO
INCREASE SKY COVER AND ADD PATCHY FOG. NAM/RUC BOTH SHOWING DECENT
BL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH. WITH BETTER CLEARING SOUTH
COULDNT RULE OUT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AND THEN ADVECTING NORTH
OUT OF SE CO AND SW KS. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THIS WILL GET...SO
I ONLY LIMITED IT TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A REX BLOCK IS ALSO STILL IN PLACE OFF THE
WESTERN US...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. A LEE TROUGH IS DEEPENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN KS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES.
GOOD WAA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END...AND THE LEE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. IF CLOUD COVER WERE TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE WE
MAY SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50F AT SOME LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. WITH
VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND AROUND 18Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEST LIFT LOCALLY
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY OF ZERO. HOWEVER...THERE IS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS UP TO 40KTS. THERE IS SOME WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT A MASSIVE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA...ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER WHICH
COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LACKING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN
STRONG UPPER JET IN THE VICINITY. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
MCK TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE BETWEEN 14-15Z THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER BOTH TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A REX BLOCK IS ALSO STILL IN PLACE OFF THE
WESTERN US...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. A LEE TROUGH IS DEEPENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN KS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES.
GOOD WAA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END...AND THE LEE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. IF CLOUD COVER WERE TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE WE
MAY SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50F AT SOME LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. WITH
VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND AROUND 18Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEST LIFT LOCALLY
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY OF ZERO. HOWEVER...THERE IS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS UP TO 40KTS. THERE IS SOME WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT A MASSIVE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA...ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER WHICH
COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LACKING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN
STRONG UPPER JET IN THE VICINITY. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN PACIFIC ORIGIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
MCK TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE BETWEEN 14-15Z THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER BOTH TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1203 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A REX BLOCK IS ALSO STILL IN PLACE OFF THE
WESTERN US...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. A LEE TROUGH IS DEEPENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN KS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES.
GOOD WAA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END...AND THE LEE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. IF CLOUD COVER WERE TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE WE
MAY SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50F AT SOME LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. WITH
VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND AROUND 18Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN
ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND UP THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CAPE AXIS WILL EXTEND THROUGH TEXAS AND UP INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
LATER ON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA LATER IN THE DAY. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY CLEARED
OUT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY COLD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...A
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES PUTTING THE HIGH PLAINS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILD TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ATTM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT WED OCT 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
MCK TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE BETWEEN 14-15Z THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER BOTH TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROF OVER
CNTRL NAMERICA. NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF IS CURRENTLY
HEADING SE THRU SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD SRN MANITOBA. THIS WAVE WILL BE
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH 850MB
THERMAL TROF (TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C) IS STILL CROSSING THE AREA...LAKE
EFFECT PCPN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN FROM W TO E DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AND FLOW BECOMING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. MORE IMPORTANT NEGATIVE FACTOR IS PROBABLY DAYTIME
HEATING DISRUPTING LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE
OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSING. LAST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT NRN LUCE COUNTY AROUND 06Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THERE ISN`T MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MODELS...BUT
WILL FAVOR THE REGIONAL GEM WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING
MORE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY ROBUST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS ALONG WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT (285-290K SFCS)
SUGGESTS PCPN IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N AND E...CLOSER
TO SHORTWAVE TRACK. PCPN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W LATE EVENING AND
REACH THE E OVERNIGHT. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES IN THE 1302-1310M
RANGE SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL OCCUR. HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES OF PCPN...MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS MAY BACK JUST ENOUGH
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR ERN FCST
AREA...SO PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER THERE. WITH LOW-LEVELS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE E SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO FALL THIS EVENING
(SHOULD FALL BLO FREEZING IN MANY AREAS)...BUT THICKENING CLOUDS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A LITTLE AFTER EARLY LOWS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT THU MORNING
BEFORE FORCING EXITS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRYING ARRIVE. THAT WILL HELP MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN LINGER
A BIT LONGER IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. CAA
DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO -5 TO -7C DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SOME LAKE EFFECT PCPN. GIVEN EARLY SEASON/DIURNAL HEATING...IT WILL
BE MORE OF A HYBRID TYPE PCPN PATTERN WITH NOT SO MUCH BANDING OFF
THE LAKE...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WITH STRONG STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV IN ITS WAKE. AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY NW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -7C TO -8C
RANGE. WITH WATER TEMPS FROM 7C TO 12C...THERE WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN LAKE EFFECT PCPN. EVEN THROUGH OVERALL
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXPECT THEAT LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL
HELP TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONV INTO AREAS NEAR P53 AND GRAND MARAIS.
ALTHOUGH THE LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY
WARM OVER THE EAST...EXPECT MAINLY SNOW WITH A COATING TO HALF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME LOCATIONS. OVER THE WEST...THE PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF SOONER AS THE RIDGE AND BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA WITH LIGHT
ACYC FLOW.
FRI...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA WILL
TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AS WINDS BACK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SUNSHINE AND DEVELOPING WAA WITH SW FLOW
SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...PER FCST
SOUNDINGS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.
300K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE 250-300 JET OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM WI SPREADING INTO UPPER MI. THE NAM/SREF WAS
PREFERRED IN WITH A LATER ONSET OF PCPN AND KEEPING THE GREATER QPF
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND GREATER
ELEVATED CAPE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THE GFS...12Z GEFS AND GEM REMAINED A BIT
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. SO...THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
POSITION AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
FGEN/DEF AS THE 700 MB LOW MOVES THROUGH. WITH EITHER SCENARIO...A
COLD WIND DRIVEN RAIN MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PCPN
AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND 0C.
MON-WED...MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT SHOW EXPECTED DIFFERENCES WITH DETAILS. A WAA PATTERN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED CLIMB BACK VALUES AOA
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE AFTN
HRS AS INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HELPS TO KEEP CLOUD BASES ABOVE
3KFT. AT KSAW...SCT -SHRASN MAY STILL OCCUR BRIEFLY AT TIMES FOR THE
NEXT HR OR TWO. GUSTY WNW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE. DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS -SN/-RA SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SN AT KCMX/KSAW. PCPN WILL
DIMINISH/END LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THRU THE MORNING AT KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24HRS IS ON LOW PRES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE AS THE LOW ARRIVES IN THE UPPER
LAKES. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 30KT LATE TONIGHT. OF MORE CONCERN
WILL BE THE NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU AS THE LOW SHIFTS E OF THE LAKE.
AIDED BY INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR AND PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...A PERIOD OF NW GALES IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. MAY NEED TO HOIST A GALE WARNING IF NEW GUIDANCE ARRIVING
THIS EVENING MORE SOLIDLY SUPPORTS GALES.
A MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY WHILE NORTHERLY 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ARE
WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA CHILLIER FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
DRIZZLE AND OCNL PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN RMNS TO THE
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR THIS MRNG UNDER MARINE LAYER. 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS MARINE LYR WL HANG IN UNTIL 17Z-18Z BFR H9
WINDS SHIFT ARND TO THE SW AHD OF THE APPCHG CDFNT. THIS SFC BNDRY
IS RAPIDLY MVG THRU OH AT THIS HR WITH AN AREA OF ISOLD SHOWERS
AND/OR VIRGA WORKING INTO WRN NY AHD OF IT. CUD SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO OUT OF THIS DECK AS THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT INSISTENT ON THIS
AREA OF PCPN, THUS HV TWEAKED POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCNT FOR THIS.
THIS FNT WL WORK THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA LTR THIS
AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NY STATE BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING DOWN
INTO NEPA. MIDNIGHT SHIFT ACCNTD FOR THIS IN THE POPS GRIDS SO NO
NEED TO CHG THE LATER HRS TDA AND WL LET THEM RIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
KBGM 88D VWP SHOWS A LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 2
AND 7 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE A COOLER LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WHICH WAS SEEN WELL IN THE OBSERVATIONS AS A
LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER. THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AT 925 MB. IN CONTRAST...ABOVE THIS LAYER...THERE WERE
DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS
WAS LEADING TO SATURATION AND LO AND BEHOLD THE RADAR WAS SHOWG
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY E OF A SYR-TOWANDA LINE FLOWING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S-SW FLOW. IN ADDTN...CLOUD
CIGS SUGGESTS THAT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE POCONOS...CATSKILLS AND
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN PA ABOVE 1800 FEET WERE SOCKED IN WITH FOG.
MOUNT POCONO WAS 1/2SM FG...SO I SUSPECT FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ERN PART OF CWA IN GRIDS
ABOVE 1800 FEET WHICH IS NOT MUCH...EXCEPT IN CATSKILLS. SINCE THE
LOW- LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED WEST OF THIS CLOUD AND DRIZZLE LAYER
(W OF SYR-TOW) SKIES HAVE CLEARED. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGE
SUGGESTS COOLER MARINE-LIKE CLOUD LAYER WILL STAY TO THE E OF
THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDC FOR THE
MOST PART. THUS I WILL KEEP CLDS AND DRIZZLY/PATCHY HIGH ELEVATION
FOG OUT FINGER LAKES AND WEST OVERNIGHT
THE LOW-LEVEL SFC TO 925 MB FLOW PATTERN WILL RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM THIS AM BY TURNING THE WINDS MORE
SWRLY WHICH WILL ADVECT THE DRIZZLY/LOW MOISTURE TO THE EAST INTO
ERN NY BY 18Z. THUS I MOVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE
CATSKILLS BY LATE MORNING.
THEN WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
GREAT LAKE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRNT. THE PV LOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES INTO NY AND NRN PA BY
18Z AND ACTUALLY DIGS INTO NY AND PA BY 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS
A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG LL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS PUSHES THE
850 MB FRONT TO ABT ROC-ELZ BY 18Z. THE 850 MB FRNT WILL THEN MOVE
EAST AND REACH UCA-BGM-TOW BY 21Z AND CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY 00Z
AND CLEAR ALL OF NE PA AND SE NY BY 03Z OR SO.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
TODAY. THE PRECIP THEN FIZZLES AS IT WORKS E OF C NY AND NE PA. THEN
THE STRG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850 MB FRNT TAKES OVER AND
LEADS TO PLENTY OF SC AND A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS TO -4C
BTWN 6Z AND 12Z THU. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND
16Z...WHICH GIVES A 20C DIFFERENTIAL. THIS IS EXTREME INSTABILITY.
THE LOW-LEVELS APPEAR TOO WARM ESPECIALLY IF ENUF SENSIBLE AND
LATENT HEATING TAKES PLACE FROM THE LAKE WATERS WHICH IS ASSUMED.
IN THIS CASE...IT WUD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY EARLY LAKE SNOWS AT THIS
POINT IN NC NY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 280 DEGREE FLOW TONIGHT.
COLLABORATED WITH KBUF WFO ON LAKE RAIN SHOWERS POSITIONING
TONIGHT VIA ISC GRIDS. REST OF CWA WILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS BUT
LIKELY IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NRN
NY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT REACHES THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE W-SW IT WILL DRY OUT SO I
SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY FALL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS...EURO...CMC AND NAM ALL
BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING A BIT WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
CLDS AND SHOWERS DOWN...THE NAM IS SLOWEST WITH THE EURO AND CMC A
COMPROMISE. WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE FOR NOW AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND
BEHIND FROPA THU NGT AND FRI AM. THEN I CAN SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LINGERING DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO AT
LEAST THRU FRI AM. BY FRI PM AND FRI NGT...LARGE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND MANY OF OUR TREES ARE EITHER AT PEAK COLORS WITH QUITE A FEW
ALREADY DROPPED ALREADY. THEREFORE LITTLE TO NO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN SO I COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ENTIRE CWA SAT AM...MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S.
COLDEST VALLEYS POSSIBLY EVEN FLIRTING WITH UPPER TEENS. KELM MEX
GUIDC SHOWING MIN OF 23 SAT WITH THE EURO GUIDC GOING FOR 25 AT
KELM. WE HAVE RURAL SPOTS THAT GET EVEN LOWER THAN ELM. ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF THERE IS SOME PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WHICH WUD HOLD TEMPS UP. IF IT HOLDS CLEAR WE LIKELY WILL HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OR EVEN HARD FREEZE. RECORD MINIMUMS COULD BE
CHALLENGED. WILL HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR SATURDAY
AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AGAIN FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MED RNG...WHICH DOES NOT BUY INTO
THE 00Z EURO DEPCTION OF AN AMPLIFYING S/WV OVER THE MID ATLC BY
NXT TUE/WED. 12Z CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE 12Z GFS IN THIS REGARD. SO
THE MAIN THEME IS A CONTINUATION OF THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME.
SYSTEM CRNTLY OVER CA IS FCST TO EJECT OUT AND TRACK
ENEWD...APRCHNG THE FCST AREA ON SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRES TO
TRACK NEWD FROM THE WRN GTLAKES INTO QUEBEC ON SUN NGT WHICH WILL
BRING A CHC OF SHRA. ANOTHER S/WV DROPS SEWD RIGHT BEHIND IT
KEEPING IN A CHC FOR SHRA ON MON AND PSBLY MON NGT. BRIEF RIDGING
SHUD BRING A NICE DAY ON TUE...AND DRY WX COULD PERSIST INTO WED
BEFORE THE NXT IN THE SERIES OF WAVES APRCHS. NO CHGS TO HPC TEMPS
WHICH ARE A LTL COOLER THAN YDA`S GDNC AND THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...CDFNT IS PASSING THRU THE FCST AREA. A BAND OF SCT
-SRHA AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...MAINLY IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. OVRNGT...WRLY TO NW FLOW
WILL ALLOW BAND OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHRA TO DVLP E OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WE XPCT THIS BAND TO GET INTO THE RME AREA ARND 06Z...SLOWLY
DROPPING TIL ARND 12Z WHEN IT`S SRN PERIPHERY COULD BRUSH SYR. AT
RME...WE PLAYED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...AND INTRODUCED THE
POTNL AT SYR IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MVFR
APPEARS PSBL AT OTHER SITES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVNG DUE TO DIURNALLY
ENHANCED STRATO-CU BEHIND THE FNT...BUT THESE CLDS SHUD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVNG. COULD SEE SOME BKN CLDS FROM LAKE ERIE AT ELM FOR
A WHILE THIS EVNG BUT XPCT THEY`LL REMAIN VFR. AT THIS POINT WE
DID NOT BUY INTO THE VLY FOG THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS SUGESTING AT
ELM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. BAND LIFTS NWD TMRW
MRNG...WITH VFR ALL SITES...BUT MVFR WIL LIKELY LINGER AT RME TIL
LATE MRNG.
WINDS BECMG W TO NW BEHIND THE FNT 15-20 KTS...DIMINSHING A BIT
LATER THIS EVNG...THEN WRLY 10-20 KTS ON THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SHRA WITH CDFNT.
FRI...MVFR EARLY SRN NY AND NE PA NEAR THE CDFNT...WITH SCT MVFR
CNTRL NY IN THE AFTN.
FRI NGT/SAT/SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT/MON...MVFR IN SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER
13TH. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. RECORD LOWS THAT COULD BE CHALLENGED ARE
AS FOLLOWS:
RECORD (YEAR) SAT AM FORECAST LOW
GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT 28 (1993) 30
SCRANTON/WILKES BARRE AIRPORT 29 (1993) 30
SYRACUSE AIRPORT 29 (2006) 31
ITHACA AIRPORT 25 (1964) 28
ELMIRA/CORNING AIRPORT 25 (1951) 26
ROME/GRIFFIS AIRPORT 26 (1993) 27
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...DJN
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
145 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING A BIT AND UPSTREAM
WEB CAMS SHOW LITTLE TO NOTHING OTHER THAN WET GROUND. WILL
THEREFORE UPDATE AGAIN AND REMOVE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
FAR NORTH. COULD STILL BE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT OVERALL EVEN PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE WATCHING PCPN HEADING INTO THE FA LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE PCPN TYPE
AND WHETHER THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. RIGHT NOW HAVE A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW FALLING AT MINOT WITH LIGHT SNOW UP IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AND IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
SASKATCHEWAN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED A LITTLE WITH
EXACTLY WHERE THE MOST PCPN WILL FALL AND THIS IS ALWAYS TOUGH
WHEN IT COULD BE SUCH A THIN BAND. LATEST NAM AND RAP DO NOT
DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE FORECAST HAS GOING...KEEPING THE
MAIN BAND KIND OF ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. SEEING A LITTLE
SUNSHINE NOW AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP ENOUGH
FOR MOST OF THE FA SO IT WILL STAY AS RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE THE
COLDEST UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THIS AREA AND MONITOR IF ANY EXPANDING OF THE
SNOW AREA NEEDS TO BE MADE. COULD BE SOME WHITE ACCUMULATION IN
GRASSY AREAS IN THIS AREA TOO. IF PCPN BAND GOES FURTHER SOUTH
WOULD ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST LATER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH PRECIP SINCE YESTERDAYS RUN. THE NAM AND
AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED TO A NORTHERN SOLUTION SINCE YESTERDAY. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM AK TO IA. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH THU BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS THIS PERIOD.
MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE UNDER ZERO CELSIUS FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR TODAY WITH SOME DYNAMIC
COOLING. WILL GO FOR AN INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW FOR TODAY. LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW MOVES MOSTLY INTO MN THIS EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THU. THE NEXT OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN SOMEWHAT FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH YESTERDAYS
12Z AND NOW TODAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE LESSENED THE QPF ON SATURDAY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE REALLY TRENDED TO
THE SE WITH PCPN PLACEMENT ENOUGH SO THAT THE SE ZONES MAY BE
COMPLETELY DRY...WILL REDUCE LIKELY POPS DOWN TO CHC AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PLACEMENT TRENDS. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM MORE SUN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND HIGHS A BIT WARMER AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH.
ON SUNDAY 00Z MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES IN THE FAST QUASI ZONAL 500MB FLOW THRU TUESDAY. KEPT
WEAK POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUN NIGHT TO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT
OVERCAST SKIES AREAWIDE BY MID-LATE EVENING. HRRR HAS SOME SIGNAL
THAT CLEARING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NOW MAY SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS
ZONES LATE TONIGHT... BUT MOST SIGNAL IS FOR STRATUS PERSISTANCE
OR REDEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION... SO WILL
JUST KEEP THE OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS EXPECTED WITH /A/ THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.. AND /B/ THE STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM... SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 80 65 83 / 20 20 40 50
HOBART OK 52 80 64 81 / 20 20 40 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 84 67 85 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 50 84 58 75 / 10 20 40 50
PONCA CITY OK 54 81 61 76 / 20 20 60 50
DURANT OK 58 82 65 85 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO NEAR A SAN ANGELO TO BRADY
LINE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS TOUGH TO GET RID OF NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE KABI TERMINAL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY AT HIGH END
IFR TO LOW END MVFR THROUGH SUNSET. FARTHER SOUTH...MVFR CIGS HAVE
LIFTED ENOUGH TO REACH LOW EVEN VFR CIGS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40KTS LIFTS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE UP AND OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...GENERATING WIDE SPREAD IFR CIGS. WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT AGAIN...KABI SPECIFICALLY
... WHERE LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ON FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA
SUGGESTS THAT WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY.
HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHICH IS STILL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SOME OF THE DATA COMING IN WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...
THIS WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER NOT BREAKING AT
ALL...SO WILL GET A FEEL ON THAT BEFORE DROPPING READINGS EVEN
MORE.
WILL WATCH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS...AND FULLY EXPECT
TO SEE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THAT
POSITION AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
WATCHING AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. LOOKS LIKE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE KSJT AND THE KABI TERMINALS. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY...AND WILL START KABI WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN RISING TO LOW
END VFR BY 16Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...SOME LOW END VFR CIGS REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT(850MB JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS). EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z THU.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO A POSITION NEAR OUR
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS ARE NORTH
AT 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS STALL THE
FRONT NEAR OUR INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY...AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 70 TO 73 RANGE. FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
NOT BE AS DOMINATE. THUS...HIGHS ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 RANGE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MOIST
UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES AS A WARM FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL HELP
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DOMINATE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MOISTURE RETURN TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. THUS...I BELIEVE THE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IF LATER MODEL RUNS MOVE THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTH...THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HUBER
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM STILL LOOK PROMISING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT
WILL PEAK. ALSO...THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE BEST PERIODS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 18Z ON SATURDAY.
AGAIN...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY IS WORTH AT LEAST A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...INTO NEXT TUESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
HUBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 67 60 84 66 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 73 65 84 68 83 / 5 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 80 68 85 70 82 / 5 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07