Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/08/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

921 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A NICE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND SNOWFALL ALL THE WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SO EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL 3 PM. ALSO EXPANDED IT EASTWARD
INTO PHILLIPS/SEDGWICK COUNTIES BASED ON SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PRESENT TRAJECTORY OF SNOW BAND.

MEANWHILE...THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR IS STUCK IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WERE JUST NOW FINALLY APPROACHING THE FORT COLLINS/GREELEY
CORRIDOR WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT. WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF RELEASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUT ONLY WHEN WE TURN
WINDS SUFFICIENTLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS FOR THE WEAK LIFT NECESSARY.
THAT NOW LOOKS CLOSER TO NOONTIME/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
DENVER/BOULDER AREA IF WE WERE TO SEE THE SHOWERS GENERATE. LATEST
RUC AND HRRR TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

.AVIATION...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOW CLOUDS ARE REALLY
SOCKED IN WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES OF 1-3 MILES IN FOG ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS JUST SLIGHTLY. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTIVE AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
19Z-22Z. MOST LIKELY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ACCUMULATION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

SHORT TERM...A RATHER STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NERN CO TODAY. DECENT QG ASCENT AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NERN PLAINS THRU 18Z WITH DECREASING VALUES BY AFTN. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
ALONG THE WYOMING-NEBRASKA BORDER SE ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY TO WIGGINS TO LAST CHANCE LINE. SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES SO WILL LEAVE WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS LOW LVL WINDS THRU MIDDAY
WILL BE MORE NNW SO CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
GREAT ESPECIALLY FM THE SRN SUBURBS OF DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SRN FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS THERE IS VERY DRY
WEST OF THE DIVIDE SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO
WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE RGN WHILE A
SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. MOISTURE WITH THIS 2ND FEATURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH ITS PASSAGE. LOW TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 20S ACROSS NERN CO SO WILL KEEP HARD FREZE WARNING IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...THE LAST WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE DAY AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 0C. NORTHERN
COLORADO WILL CONTINUE UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE THERE IS ONE LAST RIPPLE WHICH WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH HIGH TEMPS COOLING BACK INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS WEAK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS DRY SO NO POPS ON TUESDAY.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS BROAD CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BY MID WEEK WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN A BIT OF MOISTURE AND MAYBE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SURPRISINGLY...BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS EJECT AND WEAKEN
THE LOW ACROSS COLORADO ON LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
THERE IS SOME MOSITURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IF INDEED THE
LOW DOES PUSH OUT. NO COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...THERE IS A DENVER CYCONE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
STAY TO THE SSE OF THE AIRPORT. AS A RESULT WILL SEE LIFR
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 16Z WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTN. AS TALKED ABOUT ABV APPEARS ANY SNOW AT THE AIRPORT WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. BY LATE AFTN SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENE THIS MORNING BOUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE NNE BY MIDDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESE.

OVERNIGHT THE NAM SHOWS A POSSIBLE WK DENVER CYCLONE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT 09Z THROUGH 14Z.
AFTER 14Z THE NAM SHOWS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR COMING IN WHICH WOULD
CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR COZ038>051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ042-
044-048>051.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>051.

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

724 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER BAND OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END IN MOST
LOCATIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS
WEEK WILL BE COOL FALL LIKE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUE/WED...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
INITIAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ
HAS GONE WITH IT. A BRIEF NARROW RIDGE HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT
FOCUS IS STILL AN AREA OF RAINFALL IN ERN NY AND NE PA WHICH WILL
MOVE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND FROM ABOUT 02-08Z WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
FROM THE W. STILL EXPECTING QPF VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES
AS OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM WITHIN THE RAIN SWATH HAVE SHOWN HIGH
BASES AND HIGH VSBYS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN. ADJUSTED TIMING OF
POPS TOWARD LATEST RAP/HRRR WHICH HAVE A HANDLE ON CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FARTHER WEST AROUND
4 PM...WATCHING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BLOSSOMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH THE 07/16Z HRRR AND
THE 07/18Z RAP LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE RAINFALL
PATTERN...WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE WILL COME IN TWO DISTINCT PERIODS.

CURRENT FORECAST POPS FALL INTO THE HIGH POP/LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT
CATEGORY. UPDATED THE RAINFALL TIMING BASED UPON THE 16Z HRRR AND
18Z RAP. CURRENT THINKING IS THE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY
PERIOD BEFORE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY...EXPECTING A DRYING AND CLEARING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE. NOT SURE WE
WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME OF CLEAR SKIES TO GET MUCH FROST. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET LOW ENOUGH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...AND
REACH A POSITION NEAR NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT TIMING
MAY BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL FALL-LIKE WEATHER MOST OF THE WEEK
* CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TUE/WED WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
* STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
07/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE LARGE
SCALE IS DEFINED BY A STRONG AND PERSISTENT HUDSON/S BAY VORTEX
WITH WAVE ENERGY WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF ITS LONGWAVE TROF.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROF THE THE NW AND AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
YIELD A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WSW JET OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH LATE WEEK...AFTER WHICH THE VORTEX WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT N WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...NOT PLANNING ON FAVORING ANY
PARTICULAR MODEL FOR THE BASELINE OF THIS FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WILL BEGIN WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND AND MAKE MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER HANDLING OF THE SENSIBLE WX DETAILS.

DETAILS...

TUE INTO WED...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD THANKS TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...A CONSTANT SHEAR VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL ASSIST
IN THE MOVEMENT OF A SFC LOW PRES IN PROXIMITY OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST LLJ ENERGY...MOISTURE...AND
F-GEN ARE WELL TO THE SW AND CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WITH
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE HIGH
PRES. WITH MITIGATING FACTORS...IT APPEARS MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
ROBUST WITH PRECIP OUTPUT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
CAN/T BE RULED GIVEN THE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. WILL
GENERALLY CAP POPS AT LOW CHANCE OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA...LOWER POPS TOWARD THE N AND W. MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE DRY. TUE H85 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND +2C WHILE WED THEY
INCREASE TO NEAR +8C...THEREFORE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TUE AND
THE 60S WED. MINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S.

WED EVENING INTO THU...
A STRONG KICKER TROF WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SFC REFLECTION IS A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT MOISTURE LOADING AND THERE ARE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WIDESPREAD WET WX IS LIKELY WITH THIS COLD FROPA.
THE FRONT IS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40KT LLJ AND H85 TEMPS
COOLING TO NEARLY 0C...SO THERE IS SOME LOW LVL INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND A/OR A LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL SLOW
SOMEWHAT AS IT REACHES THE E COAST AS IT GETS WRAPPED UP WITH THE
WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. IN ANY CASE...WET UNSETTLED WX WILL BE
LIKELY WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING...WITH COOL NW FLOW LIKELY
DURING THE DAY THU BEHIND THE FRONT.

FRI AND SAT...
WITH THE KICKER TROF FROM THU HAVING SHIFTED THE PERSISTENT
HUDSON BAY VORTEX FURTHER N AND E...A SE CONUS RIDGE WILL BE
ALLOWED TO SHIFT N WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG HIGH PRES FRI INTO
SAT. THEREFORE DRY COOL WX WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY PASS TO THE N EARLY FRI...BUT GIVEN ITS CP
ORIGINS AND PASSAGE WELL TO THE N THIS MAY PASS THE REGION DRY
WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUALLY BUILDING AS IT PASSES.

SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY STRONG LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON WITH MORE WET WX POSSIBLE. BOTH
OPNL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS MANY OF THEIR
COMPLIMENTARY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THIS...SO CONFIDENCE
INA TRANSITION TOWARD WET WX LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS A HIGHER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR 7 DAYS OUT.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY 03Z-08Z FROM W TO E. WHILE
THE DOMINANT CATEGORY IN THIS RAIN WILL BE VFR...OCCASIONAL DIPS
TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER WRN TERMINALS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...LOW PROB OF MVFR VSBYS IN
RAINFALL TONIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN RAIN
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COMPLEX MIX OF VFR TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SE OF
THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE IN SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY SE MA/RI TERMINALS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
THE RAINFALL AND OCCASIONALLY LOWER VISIBILITY. COULD SEE ANOTHER
EPISODE FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR INCREASING WINDS 25-30 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITH
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. VSBYS LOWER IN SHOWERS.

WED INTO THU...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LOWER TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH A PERIOD OF
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY WED...CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THU
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-30 KT BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED...AND
THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS PARTICULARLY
RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT THU NIGHT...THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO 25 KT FRI.
SEAS...PARTICULARLY ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THE
PERIOD.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ254-255.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1052 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS BURNED OFF...AND
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION FROM 18-00Z...MOST
OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. 12Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR BOTH AGREE WITH PRECIP WEAKENING AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF.

WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE CHC OF PCPN...SIDED WITH THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND
THE EXTENT OF PCPN FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSING TO THE NORTH...JUST EAST OF THE CWA LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS AGREEING OF PCPN OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME
TO CATEGORICAL...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURRING. THE
QUESTION NOW REMAINS IS THE INTENSITY...WITH MANY SREF MEMBERS
KEEPING THE RAINFALL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. SO KEPT THINGS DRY
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN DELAYED POPS SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
MORNING TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LOW.
THE MAIN MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ACT AS DECENT TRIGGER TO GET THE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO
KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

WITH A NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR BEGINS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...WITH
850MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW
TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN AGAIN ON
SUN...TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S...REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRYING OUT THE LEVELS...ONLY KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE BROAD HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE
WED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN US. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT. SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TUES NIGHT...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR DURING THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN AT THE SURFACE...AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR AND QUIET DAY. THE
QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...WITH THE MODELS BRINGING THROUGH
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TIMING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. IF THE 00Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION
DOES END UP HAPPENING...WE COULD ALSO BE SEEING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM FLUCTUATE A BIT...WITH COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK UNDER THE BROAD HIGH.
EACH TIME WE RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...THEN
DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE. USED A BLEND OF
MOS/HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED AT THE CITY TERMINALS IN THE 20-21Z
TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.

VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR KSWF. REMOVED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED.

SW FLOW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT VEERS WEST RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT BEFORE SETTLING NW...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS SHOULD END
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH THIS...WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED
A SCA FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SEAS REACHING 5 FT. THE
REST OF THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SUB SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE BEING MID WEEK WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING.

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIP TOTALS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

BASIN AVERAGES OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM EVENT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1018 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 14 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24
KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS WHERE THE WIND IN AROUND 310 TRUE WITH THE FRONT IN THE
VICINITY.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIP TOTALS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1000 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS ERODED THE H100-H70
RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS PARKED OVER THE PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS AFTN.
EVENING ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY WEAK LOW/MID LVL PGRAD ACRS THE
CNTRL FL...LOW LVL STEERING FLOW ACRS HAS DIMINISHED TO AOB
5KTS...WHILE MID LVL FLOW HAS VEERED TO S/SW ALSO AOB 5KTS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BCM MORE SRLY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF LIFTS UP THE ERN
SEABOARD AND THE RIDGE REBUILDS W ACRS THE PENINSULA.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LCL MID LVL VORT MAX PARKED ACRS FT
MYERS-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-JUPITER INLET...WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT...EVEN A
BUBBLE OF HIGH H100-H70 RH OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS. EVEN SO...THE LACK
OF WIND WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK...IF ANY FORCING...BE IT LOW LVL
NOCTURNAL COASTAL CONVERGENCE OR MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC LIFT. ADD IN
H100-H70 RH VALUES AOB 75PCT ACRS THE CWA...DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
PWAT AMNTS RANGING FROM 1.8" AT KJAX/KTBW TO 2.3" AT KMFL...AND
ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

DIURNAL PRECIP HAS BURNT ITSELF OUT OVER E CNTRL FL...HIGHEST TOTAL
OCCURRING ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH LCL AWOS STATION
MEASURING ALMOST 4.4" BTWN 1800Z-2130Z. ISOLD SHRAS WILL DVLP OVER
THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT...BUT THE WEAK AND VEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THESE OFFSHORE. THE FEW THAT DO MAKE IT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES VFR UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED: BTWN 08/09Z-08/12Z...AREAS
MVFR/LCL IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN BR AND LOW STRATUS ALONG AND N OF I-4.

.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIG CHANGES. WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC WILL
GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS AOB 2FT
NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE...MAINLY IN AN 8SEC BACKGROUND SWELL.
SLGT CHC SHRAS OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS SE OVERNIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING W ACRS CENTRAL FL.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....LASCODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

940 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WEATHER/UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CHECKING IN EVEN COOLER THAN FRIDAY AT -9C.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.9 INCHES OR
MORE. INFRARED/IR AND FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING
THINNING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM BREVARD OSCEOLA COUNTIES
NORTH AND TO THE WEST. RUC13 250MB JET SPEED ANALYSIS INDICATING A
JET MAX TO THE NORTH AND THE 500MB VORTICITY PLOT WAS SHOWING
SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXES MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY THE INITIALLY THICK CLOUD COVER
BUT ONCE THE CLOUDINESS THINS OUT MORE TOWARD NOON THE COMBINATION
OF THE SUN BEING HIGHER IN THE SKY...HEATING WILL START IN EARNEST.
ALREADY WARM WITH 9AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND
MOIST ENOUGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS THESE WINDS
START MIXING DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING THEY WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

MORNING UPDATE TO THE WIND GRIDS AND PROGRESSION OF WEATHER DURING
THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY...COPIOUS MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER 1.9 INCHES) WILL COMBINE
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING
TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING OVER EC FL. SFC
HEATING WILL BE BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WHILE
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
RESULT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN OUT.
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN CHANCES DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTN PRESUMABLY AS A RESULT OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE. BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BETTER HEATING ORLANDO NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL HOLD ONTO TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARD. ADVERTISING 40 POPS MOST AREAS
EXCEPT 50 POP SOUTH INTERIOR (OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE) WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER (ABOUT -9C) AND A LITTLE
STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE DEEPER CONVECTION
BACK TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN ESP WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN RECENT DAYS.

SUN...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR ON ITS BACKSIDE. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW QUICKLY DRIER AIR CAN FILTER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA
AS THIS WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND THIS MAY SLOW UP
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH 30 PERCENT POPS EXCEPT 40 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
DEEPEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE FORM OF NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL AT NEAR -8C. THE
STEERING FLOW FOR CONVECTION REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION AND WITH A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

MON-FRI...THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INFILTRATES SOUTHWARD AND THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES BECOMING MORE STABLE. RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WITH
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH UPPER RIDING
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD FROM THE
GOMEX. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THIS TIME WITH GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OR NEAR THE COAST WITH LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY. POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
BUMPED UPWARD ON MON IF THE DRIER AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE DOWN
THE PENINSULA. HIGHER POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WOULD THEN
LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

WHILE DRYING WILL BE NOTICEABLE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...
COOLING WILL INITIALLY NOT BE NOTICEABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
INLAND. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ALONG THE COAST...IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT FAR INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S WED-FRI MORNINGS.

.AVIATION...
BROKEN STRATUS DECK BELOW FL010 BURNT OFF MID MORNING. VFR THRU 18Z.
TEMPO MVFR VCTS 18Z-24Z. VFR AFTER 00Z.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
COULD SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH (LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO)
THROUGH 12Z WHILE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR IFR AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN A COUPLE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS.

.MARINE...

CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS/UPDATE...BUOYS RECORDED 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD
SEAS OUT TO 009 AND 4 FOOT SEAS AT 010. THE TWO NOAA BUOYS WERE
RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 8 KNOTS.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES NEARS NORTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE COMPONENT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AMENDED TIMING OF SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY...VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT/CLOUD LINES WILL PRESENT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BOATING WITH NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

SUN...A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING MAINLY ONSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON SURROUNDING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST MOISTURE
VALUES ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BASICALLY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. SEAS AOB 3
FEET.

MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEK FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE LATEST WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-TOPPED COASTAL
SHOWERS IN THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME WITH SPEEDS AWAY FROM THE
COAST INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AND A MAINLY NNE/NE WIND DIRECTION.
SEAS BUILDING AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 3-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD IN
AN INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...SHARP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 943 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THE LAST FEW FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOTS FROM THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SHOW THE STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING UP SOME AS IT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT THE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS WELL WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ILLINOIS.

HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO INCREASE THE SKY COVER AND
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...PLUS TO REMOVE THE
FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. WIDESPREAD LOWS FROM
27-32 DID OCCUR IN THAT AREA...WHICH DID NOT START CLOUDING UP
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KPIA/KBMI...
ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THINK THE MAIN CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE ABOVE
10000 FEET...FROM THE CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS. MOST OF THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

GEELHART

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FRIGID CANADIAN
AIRMASS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SOME CLOUD COVER BEING INDICATED IN THE
MODELS WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECASTS DURING
THIS COLD SNAP HOWEVER. SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE NEW 00Z EURO CAME IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WARM
AIR ADVECTION RAINS ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONTAL RAINS THURS
NIGHT. BOTH 00Z RUNS STILL INDICATE A THERMAL RIDGE ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BATTLE TUESDAY TO TRY TO BE OUR WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK /MID- UPPER 60S/...HOWEVER STILL BELOW
NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE
DEPARTED OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST
WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING
IN OUR NW COUNTIES. GBG ALREADY HIT 31 BY 0730Z...SO THINGS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW THIS MORNING.

07Z SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT CLOUD
LAYER DISSIPATING DUE TO MIXING TODAY...AND HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP BRINGS THAT CLOUD LAYER AS FAR
SOUTH AS PIA/BMI...WHILE THE HRRR DOES NOT. ANOTHER AREA OF AC/CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM THE KANSAS AREA ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL TODAY...AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT
HIGHS MAY BE TRIMMED EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES IF WE ONLY SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO TREND THAT WAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
NOT CLEARING OUT AT ALL...OR VERY LATE. WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH
OF I-72 WILL HAVE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THEIR LOW TEMPS THE COLDEST. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER HAS LED TO NOT ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHORT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH AROUND 60 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAYS WARM-UP WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...PROJECTED TO REACH OUR
COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE GFS/EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL IL ON TUES NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-55. WE DIMINISHED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF THE IL RIVER TO INDICATE THAT
TREND.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BACK DOWN IN THE
VICINITY OF MONDAYS HIGHS OF AROUND 60/LOW 60S. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST-SW LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT. SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL ALREADY DEVELOP WED NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS WED NIGHT ABOVE FROST CONDITIONS...NEAR
40. THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A MID
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
THAT AFFECTS CENTRAL IL. AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THAT COLD FRONT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST
SOUTH OF CLAY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 50S.

SHIMON

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

629 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 50S.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING EAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 20000 FEET MOST
AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM SPI TO DEC AND CMI. IN ADDITION...WE
ARE WATCHING A BAND OF VFR CIGS ACRS EXTREME NRN IL DRIFTING SE
THAT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING WITH
BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING UP TO 20 KTS. ANY GUSTS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036-
037-040-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 50S.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THEN HIGH CIRRUS WILL ADVECTING OVER
THE SITES TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT ADVECT INTO
THE SITES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING SO DID NOT ADD
BR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS...THEN
DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036-
037-040-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

902 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

LATEST OBS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FROST ADVISORY NEAR OR AT 30
DEGREES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE WINDS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR...WITH A LIGHT BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30
DEGREES. IN ADDITION THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
ADVECTING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INTO THE AREA. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE LARGE AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR OVER AN HOUR...WHICH IS
THE CRITERIA FOR A FREEZE HIGHLITE. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TODAY HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE IS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO...AND THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN AREAS WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOWFIELD.

A MUCH WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 25C SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
70S...WITH WARMING AIDED BY DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS.
SNOWFIELD IN THE NORTH SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT AND HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AFTER A COOL START.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LACK OF FORCING AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME VERY WEAK LIFT COMES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 30S WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWER TO MID 30S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW ILL MOVE TO A POSITION WEST OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY. UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND MOISTURE LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A TROUGH BETWEEN KGLD AND KCBK NORTHEAST TO EAST OF KMCK.
THIS TROUGH WILL STALL BY EARLY EVENING NOT FAR FROM ITS CURRENT
LOCATION THEN GRADUALLY WASHOUT AS WINDS BEHIND IT TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

OVERNIGHT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWERED VIS AND CEILING FOR
KMCK DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS TO THE WEST FROM THE RECENT
SNOWFALL. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT FOG...SO AM NOT TOO
CONVINCED OF ANY DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VIS OR CEILINGS. HOWEVER A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD ANY FOG
DEVELOP...IT WILL BE GONE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-002-
013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

345 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH
250MB CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED AIR
(700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 0 OR 1 DEGC AT KRIW, KDNR, KDDC, KAMA,
KOUN). PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ALL
ALONG THE STRONGEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (THE STRONGEST
OF WHICH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 17Z). LIGHTER BANDED PRECIPITATION WAS
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 0.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MEASURED SO FAR AT DODGE CITY (ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN). SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS DIGHTON...AND VERY BRIEFLY MIXED IN
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORD COUNTY DURING ONE OF
THE HEAVIER BANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THE SNOW LINE IS
MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE RAP ANALYZED 900 FT AGL FREEZING
LEVEL...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON (AND
POINTS NORTHWEST) AT 18Z.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

THIS EVENING:
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 700MB) WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL DRYING FROM 800 TO 500MB (AND ABOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERE) WILL INCREASE AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE WAKE
OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT CLOUD IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE (800-900MB) WILL ALSO BE DECREASING...HOWEVER RATE
OF DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IS STILL A
FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS LOW STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE AS REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECIRCULATES AROUND THE
ANTICYCLONE IN THIS LAYER. FEEL THAT CLOUDS IN THE 800-900MB LAYER
WILL SCATTER OUT SLOWLY FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT...AND MOST PROMINENT
FARTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO.

OVERNIGHT:
A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH TAKING A TRACK FROM ROUGHLY WRAY, COLORADO TO DODGE
CITY TONIGHT. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH SKY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
RATHER QUICKLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
FALL TO 28 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY 08 OR 09Z
AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR PROBABLY 4 OR 5 HOURS...WITH MINIMUM
AROUND SUNRISE OF 25 TO 27 DEGREES NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO NESS CITY
TO LACROSSE LINE. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A CONTINUATION OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FREEZE
HEADLINES. WILL CONTINUE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING (28 DEGREES OR
BELOW FOR LOWS) NORTH OF A JOHNSON TO BUCKLIN TO STAFFORD LINE.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR LOWS 29 TO 32 DEGREES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF WEST
CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THE END TO THE
GROWING SEASON WITH THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

SUNDAY:
A SECONDARY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WHICH MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD BACK TO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NO OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO
10 KNOTS EXPECTED. A WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM DOWNSLOPE
MOMENTUM (850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO +5 TO +9C FROM EAST TO WEST)
WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

MONDAY:

BROAD 500-250 HPA WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THIS ORTHOGONAL FLOW
WRT THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A LEE TROUGH TO FORM MONDAY FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 850 HPA. AS A RESULT, A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S DEG F TO AROUND
70 DEG F. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE REGION WILL BE FREE OF ANY SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT.

TUESDAY:

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES TUESDAY AS A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UL FEATURE WILL USHER IN A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HAVE USED 12Z ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS CONTINUES
TO PERFORM POORLY (IN THIS CASE, USUALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FROPA).
HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEG F ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO MID 70S DEG F ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH A LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
WILL KEEP POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT. SFC WINDS DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH THIS HIGH AS 850 HPA WINDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY:

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DENSITY GRADIENT. HIGHS IN THE 60S DEG F ARE EXPECTED
AS FAIRLY COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES (9-13 DEG C) ARE FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL ALSO RUN WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS (AROUND 3 PERCENT) FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
FOR EXAMPLE, YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUN HAD THE WARM SECTOR (HIGHER THETA-E
AIR) SPREADING NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. TODAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS THAT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER AS A WAA PATTERN/THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG SAID FRONT
COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ALLBLEND POPS ALTHOUGH WILL SMOOTH POPS
TOWARDS A BIAS TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS WAS GENERALLY DISREGARDED AS THE
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH UL FEATURES THAT WILL PROBABLY
SLOW DOWN WITH TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UL LOW THAT WILL BE THE IMPETUS
FOR CONVECTION. IT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARM SECTOR
PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED REDISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY PER UNIT MASS (I.E.
CAPE) IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF WHEREVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE,
THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. KINEMATIC PROFILES ALSO STRENGTHEN WITH
TIME AS THE UL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO KANSAS WITH 250 HPA FLOW INCREASING
TO 100 KT, 500 HPA FLOW INCREASING TO 60 KT, AND FAIRLY STRONG AND VEERING
FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 700 HPA. SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN OCTOBER
ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE PLAINS. IN FACT, THERE WERE TORNADOES LAST OCTOBER
ACROSS THE REGION LAST YEAR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE STORM MODE
AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 1000 TO 2500 FEET (REMAINING IN
THE MVFR RANGE). AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY COMES TO AN END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CEILING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
UP TO 12 KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 57 34 69 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 28 57 32 69 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 30 54 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 30 54 34 67 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 26 58 34 70 / 20 0 0 0
P28 29 56 35 69 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

317 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT
AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES
AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY
EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 57 34 69 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 28 57 32 69 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 30 54 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 30 54 34 67 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 26 58 34 70 / 20 0 0 0
P28 29 56 35 69 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SYNOPSIS SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES
THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE
FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 41 28 57 34 / 40 20 10 0
GCK 38 27 57 33 / 50 20 10 0
EHA 41 30 55 36 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 42 30 55 35 / 10 10 10 0
HYS 43 27 57 34 / 30 20 0 0
P28 46 29 59 35 / 30 10 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
COMBINED WITH 700 MB CONVERGENCE...HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT RSL/HUT/ICT BUT MAINLY WITH VFR VSBYS/CIGS AS
IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LESSER CHANCES FURTHER
NORTHEAST IN DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR. STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE KANSAS REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.

JMC

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

THERE WAS CONCERN THAT CIGS OVER SE KS MAY DROP INTO MVFR STATUS FROM
LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MORE AS LOWEST ~8,000FT ARE
QUITE DRY. AS SUCH HAVE NOW PLACED KCNU IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE
06/12Z TAF CYCLE. SOME -RA SCOOTING E OVER THE NE OK/SE KS BORDER WILL
REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL. SOME -RA THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NC OK WILL
LIKEWISE MOVE DUE ALONG & JUST S OF THE KS BORDER & AS SUCH HAVE KEPT
"VCSH" OUT OF KICT FOR THIS MORNING. ALL -RA SHOULD VACATE THE KS AREA
BY 07/00Z AS A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF SCOOTS SE FROM
THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY:
GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND CONTINUE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM...WITH 0600 UTC NAM AND RUC THE ONLY MODELS COMING CLOSE
TO CAPTURING THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA. UNCLEAR WHEN/IF THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY.

TONIGHT:
WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER
ENTIRE AREAS. CONSENSUS WAS TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WARNING GIVEN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT OR BELOW 30 EXCEPT FOR THE
WICHITA METRO.

SUN-MON:
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AND INCREASES ON MON. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT.
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASUREABLE RAIN...BUT A
ROGUE SPRINKLE IN HARPER COUNTY IS POSSIBLE.

TUE-FRI:
FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE..WHICH IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC...IS THE
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FURTHER SOUTH...LEADING TO SMALLER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
MAY FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON THU AHEAD OF FRONT.
-HOWERTON

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 30 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 30 10 10 10
NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 20 10 0 0
ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 40 20 10 10
RUSSELL 46 27 56 36 / 30 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 46 27 56 35 / 30 10 10 10
SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 20 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 20 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 20 0 0
CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 20 0 0
IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 30 20 0 0

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

853 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITHIN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (AHEAD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH WAS CENTERED NEAR CHEYENNE, WY AS OF 1330 UTC).
WSR-88D TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR (AS OF 1330 UTC) AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED IN DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY. WILL
CARRY LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 23 TO THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE BELOW 900 FEET AGL PER
RAP13 SHORT TERM MODEL FORECAST. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY, AND ANY SNOWFLAKES SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS WHERE LOCAL DROP OF FREEZING LEVEL
WILL OCCUR DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES FROM GREATER ASCENT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER THE 20 OR 21Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SCOOTS EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY DIPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED AROUND THE
HAYS TERMINAL THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND REMAIN AS VIRGA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 41 28 57 34 / 40 20 10 0
GCK 38 27 57 33 / 50 20 10 0
EHA 41 30 55 36 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 42 30 55 35 / 10 10 10 0
HYS 43 28 57 34 / 30 20 0 0
P28 46 29 59 35 / 30 10 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.

UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

700 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 20 0 10 10
NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELL 48 27 56 36 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 48 27 56 35 / 20 0 10 10
SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 10 0 0
CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 10 0 0
IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 20 10 0 0

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA AND WYOMING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THE RADAR MOSAIC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BAND OF
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
AT GARDEN CITY OUT OF THESE RADAR RETURNS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 28 57 34 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 43 27 57 33 / 20 10 10 0
EHA 44 30 55 36 / 20 10 10 0
LBL 44 30 55 35 / 20 10 10 0
HYS 46 28 57 34 / 20 0 0 0
P28 49 29 59 35 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

RENEWED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MID LEVEL
SATURATION AND EVENTUAL STRATUS BUILD DOWN MAY LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN FOR SAT AFTN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AND SOUTHEAST KS...AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS STRATUS BUILD DOWN...WITH THE RAIN
CHANCE....MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KICT AND KCNU. WILL
INSERT SOME VCSH FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KCNU TAF SITES FOR THIS RAIN
CHANCE.

THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ALL CEILINGS BECOMING
VFR AFTER 21Z/SAT...WITH CLEARING SKIES SAT EVENING.

KETCHAM

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

320 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

THIS TAF UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES AT GARDEN CITY AND HAYS THROUGH 12Z AND ALSO AT DODGE
CITY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEARING BY THE LATE PERIODS OF THE TAFS.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

107 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACK TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MIDWEST FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO BRING THEM TO CURRENT
READINGS AS THEY ARE HOLDING STEADY. A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN SETS LATER ON. ADDED FOG TO ALL
AREAS AND BEEFED IT UP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AS
VSBYS ARE VARIABLE FROM 2 TO 1/2 MILES. FURTHER NORTH, JUST PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. POPS WERE
ADJUSTED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN USING THE 21Z SREF
WHICH IS MATCHING WELL W/THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
CROSSES THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE FAIRLY ABUNDANT WITH THIS FRONT, SO THE RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A HALF TO THREE- QUARTERS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE
DOWNEAST MAINE WILL SEE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. WITH ALL THE
MOISTURE AROUND, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE,
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT MAKES
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE
QUITE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN MAINE WILL
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S AND UPPER 50S, BUT THOSE AREAS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST MAINE, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING AND QPF SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONTAL
RN/SHWRS SAT EVE SHOULD SLOWLY END NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
LOW PRES SYSTEMS LATE SAT NGT THRU MIDDAY SUN WITH SOME CLRG.
ANOTHER S/WV ALF PROPAGATING NE FROM THE MID ATLC STATES/CNTRL
APPLCHNS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MSLY RN ACROSS THE FA
BEGINNING LATE SUN AFTN OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA AND ENDING MON MORN
ACROSS XTRM NE PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS ALF IN THE 925-850 LAYER AND
THE SFC-500 M LAYER OVR WEST PTNS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY FALL LOW
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PD OF RN/SN MIXED BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 MSL
AND ALL SN AOA 2500 FT MSL LATE SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS XPCTD BLO 2500 FT MSL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE AOA 2500 FT OVER THE CNTRL MAINE HIGHLANDS AND BAXTER
STATE PARK.

GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NW SIG QPF WILL XTND NW
OF THE SFC LOW GIVEN THE OPENNESS AND FAIRLY RAPID PROGRESSION OF
THE S/WV ALF...WE DID NOT MENTION ACCUMULATIONS ATTM IN THE FCST
WORDING ATTM. WE DID BLEND ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE 05/00Z DTMNSTC
ECMWF...WHICH BY FAR THE MOST NW WITH SIG QPF AND SLOWEST TO END
PRECIP ON MON. IF MOST OF THE OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER OVR THE NW AND END FASTER OVR THE
ALL OF THE FA ERLY MON MORN. SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST BEGIN TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR BY MON AFTN ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW EXITING THRU THE MARITIMES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY IN MANY SPOTS AND A
FROST IS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AND A SOUTH BREEZE
INCREASES. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONTO THE EAST COAST. A STRONGER LOW
MAY APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL SURGE IN FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND BY SATURDAY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT NORTHERN SPOTS AS SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY CHILLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, THEN ALL SITES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR DUE TO
RAIN, LOW CEILINGS, AND FOG, MOSTLY AFTER 06Z. DON`T EXPECT A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH CEILINGS MAY
OCCASIONALLY LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: BRIEF IFR/LOW MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES ERLY
IN RN/RN SHWRS SAT EVE WILL IMPROVE VFR BEHIND THE FRONT OVRNGT
SAT NGT. VFR WILL CONT SUN THEN LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR SUN NGT
CONTG INTO ERLY MON MORN IN RN...WITH RN/SN MIXED POSSIBLE LATE
SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN AT KFVE. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL SITES BY MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATTE TUE NGT INTO WED WITH SHWRS WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. GUSTS OF 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: INITIALLY...SCA CONDITIONS OVR OUTER WATERS WILL CONT
FROM NEAR TERM THRU ABOUT 4 AM SUN MORN...WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING BLO SCA CRITERIA AFTWRDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
MON. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1040 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
H5 TROF AXIS REMAINS ACRS THE GRTLKS/MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIPRES BLDG ACRS CWFA THIS EVNG. THE LAST OF THE PCPN FM THE UPR
LVL DISTURBANCE MVG ONTO THE ERN SHORE. CLDS SCATTERING OUT ACRS
CWFA. WITHOUT MEANINGFUL DRYING...THIS HAS PERMITTED RAPID FOG
DVLPMNT. LTST HRRR IS THE 1ST PIECE OF GDNC IN STEP W/ OBS. HV
ADDED AREAS FOG TO CENTRAL VA AND PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR CENTRL
MD. WL NEED TO MONITOR FURTHER IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVY BECOMES
NCSRY.

HV NEEDED TO MAKE SOME CHGS TO THE FROST ADVY IN THE CENTRL SHEN
VLY...SINCE TEMPS IN THE 40S AND FOG HAS DVLPD. HV CANX ADVY FOR
AUGUSTA AND ROCKINGHAM CNTYS. THIS DOESNT BODE WELL FOR EVEN
PATCHY FROST DVLPMNT ELSW...BUT HVNT TAKEN THAT STEP YET. WL LEAVE
ADVY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS PATCHY FROST EWD TO THE DC/BALT BURBS.
BUT...IT APPEARS TO BE A LKLY CANDIDATE FOR TRIMMING IN THE NXT
CPL HRS.

IN TERMS OF THE FRZ WRNG...AS MENTIONED ERLR...NEIGHBORING SITES
AT OR VERY NEAR FRZG. THEREFORE...THE WRNG AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE L/WV TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND LGT RA WL LIKELY DVLP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
PVA/ISENT LIFT REMAINS FVRBL INTO THE EVNG...AND HV ADJUSTED POPS
UPWD...SPCLY E OF CHO-BWI.

LOW TEMPS OVER THE COOLER POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
HOW WELL SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH INITIALLY MORE CLOUD COVER
MON NIGHT COMPARED TO SUN NIGHT...CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER LOW TEMPS THAT SHOULD STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES. LOWS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR GENERALLY IN THE
MID 40S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...
WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DVLPG OVER THE
REGION. MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EAST OF THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON CORRIDOR...
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SRN MD AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF VA. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FAIRLY PROGRESSSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE FROPAS THURSDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. MOISTURE NOT SIGNIFICANT WITH THE COLD FRONTS...AS
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 50. CARRYING CHANCE POPS WED AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS FRIDAY. NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAFS STILL CARRYING VFR CONDS TNGT. HWVR...THAT FCST BASED ON
ASSUMPTION THAT A DRYING NW FLOW WUD PRECLUDE FOG. MTRS SINCE 01Z
PROVING THAT ASSUMPTION TO BE FALSE. FOG HASNT AFFECTED TAF SITES
YET. WIBIS AMD SHORTLY TO INTRODUCE SOME MVFR OVNGT...SPCLY
CHO/IAD.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY. CLOUDS AND LGT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS.

SUB VFR CONDS WITH SHOWERS OR FOG PSBL MON NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
DAYTIME VFR TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR
THURSDAY...THEN PSBL SUB-VFR FOR PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS TONIGHT. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. WNDS ATTM BLO SCA LVLS ACRS THE
WATERS. HWVR...GDNC SUGGESTING THAT ONCE RA ENDS AND CLDS ERODE...
NW FLOW WL INCR ONCE AGN...ECLIPSING SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S MAKE FOR A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR MIXING. HV
OPTED TO CONT EXISTING ADVY THRU THE NGT /TIL 10Z/ AND EXPAND TO
INCL THE REST OF THE MD CHSPK BAY AT MIDNGT FOR THE OVNGT HRS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...MOSTLY OVER SRN TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHES BAY ZONES...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DVLPG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SCA PSBL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS...THEN SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ502.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ027.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/LASORSA/KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/LASORSA/KCS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/LASORSA/KCS
MARINE...HTS/LASORSA/KCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1007 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

MTN TEMPS ALREADY QUITE CHILLY...2G4 34F...DAVIS MESONET 31F...HSP
36F...AND WINTERGREEN MESONET 37F AS OF 00Z. WINDS SHUD BE
LIGHT...SO IT SHUDNT TAKE MUCH FOR FRZ WRNG TO VERIFY. EAST OF
THERE /IN THE FROST ADVY AREA/...ITS ALL A QSTN OF WNDS AND CLDS.
WIDESPREAD FROST APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM...AND WL CONT THAT ADVY
AS WELL. DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE IN EXPANDING FROST ADVY THO SINCE
TEMPS MRB/OKV/LUA/CHO 45-50F ATTM...AND CLDS WL BE BLDG AGN TWD
MRNG. PATCHY FROST CERTAINLY A PSBLTY EWD TO THE WRN BURBS OF DC
AND BALT.

NOTE...AS MENTIONED IN THE 1ST PARAGRAPH...THE ABV THINKING WAS
BASED ON THE AMS DRYING TNGT. THUS FAR...THAT HASNT HPPND.
INSTEAD...FOG HAS DVLPD ACRS CENTRL VA. LTST HRRR IS THE 1ST PIECE
OF GDNC IN STEP W/ OBS. HV ADDED AREAS FOG TO CENTRAL VA AND
PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR CENTRL MD. WL NEED TO MONITOR FURTHER IN
CASE A DENSE FOG ADVY BECOMES NCSRY. ALSO...THIS DOESNT BODE WELL
FOR FROST. /THE FREEZE AREA ALMOST THERE ALREADY./

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
PVA/ISENT LIFT REMAINS FVRBL INTO THE EVNG...AND HV ADJUSTED POPS
UPWD...SPCLY E OF CHO-BWI.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT. HWVR...ALSO XPCTG ENUF OF A DRYING NW FLOW
TO PRECLUDE FOG. A FEW 01Z MTRS SUGGESTING THAT ASSUMPTION MAY BE
FALSE. WL MONITOR TRENDS...AND AMD IF REQD.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY. CLOUDS AND LGT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ502.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/LASORSA/KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/LASORSA/KCS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/LASORSA/KCS
MARINE...HTS/LASORSA/KCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1205 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS COME INTO OUR NORTHWEST DELTA REGION A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO HAVE SOME DECENT GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KGLH HAS HAD WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THUS
COOLER TEMPS THAN EXPECTED HAVE COME INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION.
KGLH IS ALREADY 58 DEGREES. 40S WERE OBSERVED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS.
SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THE NORTH HALF AND INCREASED THE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS
SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.
POPS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS./17/

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO JUST
SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. 01Z TEMP AT MONTICELLO AR WAS 75 WHILE IT WAS 55
AT LITTLE ROCK. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH IS RATHER
SCATTERED RIGHT NOW...IS EITHER RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTORMS. THE RUC AND HRRR
ARE BOTH INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POSTFRONTAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
IN NWRN ZONES. MOISTURE...OR THE LACK THEREOF...IS A BIG LIMITING
FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z KJAN RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF ONLY
0.62 INCHES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST PAST THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND
REACHING THE JACKSON METRO AREA RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. THE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO NO
MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE. HOURLY FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO
ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS. /DL/

.AVIATION...THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS THIS TAF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A
SOLID WIND SHIFT AS WINDS BECOME NW/N...MVFR CEILINGS ( N
SECTIONS)...AND SOME ISO/SCT SHRA ( N SECTIONS). AS FOR FRONTAL
TIMING...GLH LOOKS TO SEE IT BY 05Z AND GLH BY 06Z. THAT IS A TAD
FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHER SITES (JAN/GTR) WILL SEE THE
FRONT CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SAY BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE E/SE AREAS WILL
HAVE THE FROPA LATER IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NORTHERN
SITES...ESP GLH/GWO...WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME SHRA. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL SEE CEILINGS...BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE OF THE VFR
VARIETY AND OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE DAY SAT. /CME/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CAA WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE DELTA BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE PINE BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT COULD
BRUSH MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED MOSTLY
BY THE COOLER WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS THE DELTA...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PINE BELT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL AS LOW AS POTENTIALLY COULD
BE AS CLOUDS WILL HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE WAS
REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. /28/

LONG TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY THE ENSEMBLES AND MOST LONG RANGE MODELS
AGREE THAT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A STRONG
SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE DELTA REGION...WHICH WILL BECOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO GMOS...MEX AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS GENERALLY TOO COOL
DURING THE DAY AND TOO WARM AT NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT KEPT THE
CURRENT COOLER FORECAST AS MODELS SEEMED TO BE A LITTLE WARM.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO A BLEND
OF GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS DRY FOR MIDWEEK...BUT HAD
HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY./17/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/CME/28/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

104 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR SUGGESTED 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN CHASE COUNTY FROM DEFORMATION
AND CSI SNOW BANDING. KIML OBSERVERS REPORTED 4 INCHES AT 1 PM
CST. OVERALL THE AREA OF SNOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT
DRITS EAST SOUTHEAST. A NEW FCST IS OUT FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND
SLOWER RAP13 SOLNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 INCHES OR SO IN
CHASE COUNTY FOR TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES COVERING GRASS AND
PASTURE...NOT ROADS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

AVIATION...

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR KLBF...OVERCAST SKIES WITH -SN ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIFR VSBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM TO
1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 600 FEET POSSIBLE WITHIN INTERMITTENT BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR AROUND 21Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR 2500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT AFTER
00Z TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. FOR KVTN...SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A HARD FREEZE IS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WRN KS/ERN COLO BY 12Z SUNDAY
SETTING UP A WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO SWRN NEB. A BLEND OF THE
WRF...ECM...NAM GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA PRODUCES LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THIS AREA.

ALSO...THE NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING
THE FOG SIGNAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. SO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS MOST LIKELY WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS FALLEN
AND LESS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
NEW 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURE FCST FOR HIGHS 35 TO 40 BENEATH THE
SNOW SHIELD. THIS IS BASED ON THE MEDIUM OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE FCSTS WHICH GIVE NORTH PLATTE A HIGH NEAR 40.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING 30 PLUS DEGREE DEW
PTS...FROM TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
CWA...FROM KIEN TO KEAR. ALSO THIS LINE IS CLOSE TO THE CLOUD LINE
SEEN ON IR SAT. AS A RESULT TEMPS IN THE EAST OF THE CWA HAVE
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S...WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WY WITH SNOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WAVE.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DROPPING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY NOON. 850 TEMPS
BELOW ZERO AND 85 TO 95 PERCENT SATURATION ACROSS A DEEP...AROUND
1500 M...FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. GROUND IS STILL RELATIVELY
WARM AND SURF TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS ALL SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SE
NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SW NEB. ROADWAYS SHOULD JUST BE WET AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT...HOWEVER SOME BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES MAY
SEE A DUSTING. GRASSY AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.

SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW ENDING FROM NW TO SE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD
HIGHS DOWN CLOSE TO 40 IN THE SW. WARMER MID 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VERY COLD TEMPS AS SKIES CLEAR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CURRENT DEW PTS IN THAT RANGE IN
THE CLEAR SKIES...AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL BE THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
ONE YET.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEST TO SW
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ALSO GOING TO BE DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
FOR SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 FOR MONDAY.

MID WEEK WILL SEE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIG INTO THE FAR SW
CONUS...WHICH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. LONG WAY
TROUGH TO TAKE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DRY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED. THEN EYES TURN TO THE
LOW AS MODELS PUSH THE LOW TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING FRIDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY. GULF IS OPEN WITH DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM. DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
EXCITED YET DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT...BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROMISING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ056>059-069>071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC/TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT TO
VFR. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS A
WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS THE
THERMAL FORCING RELAXES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND
THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS...WRF...NAM...GEM AND 00Z
ECM. HOWEVER THE LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR SOLNS ARE SUGGESTING A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THE 18Z NAM IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE GEMREG KEEPING THE BEST FORCING AND SNOW
SOUTHWEST AND ITS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE RAP AND HRRR TO BE OFF BUT
THE RADAR TRENDS ARE OF CONCERN. A QPF BLEND OF THE MODELS ABOVE
AND A 10 TO 1 RATIO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY
ASSUMING BRIDGES AND ROAD SURFACES DONT CROSS THE FREEZING MARK
OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE LEAVES A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY.
OTHER AREAS WEST REMAIN OVERCAST AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE
ALREADY HAD A FREEZE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH CANADA. A BLEND OF NAM AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM12 BIAS
CORRECTION PRODUCED LOWS IN THE TEENS IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE 20S FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS
AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS IS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE BEYOND FRIDAY...SO DRY
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH
PERHAPS ONLY 50S BY FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AND THEN
POTENTIALLY MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT...AND BY EARLY
EVENING MOSTLY JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KAIA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME VERY HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTED RH BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH BOTH DAYS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NEZ059.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

209 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING US LIGHT RAIN
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER
WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY THRU THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RMNG BHND. CLDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVR
EXTRM NW SXNS THO HARD TO BELIEVE MANY PLACES WL CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTN WITH WLY FLOW OFF OF THE LK. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO MV MUCH
MORE THIS AFTN...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ACRS CNTRL NY TOPPING
OUT ARND 50. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE U50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO...

9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS.
STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING
THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL
EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG.

7 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY.

4 AM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM
AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR
STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING.

TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND
VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE
THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN
EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL
COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US
THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE
PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING
EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C
TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH
850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH INDICATIONS OF
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS THEN LIKELY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A MAINTAINED PRESENCE OF
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
IMPROVED WX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF AND
SFC FRONT MAY SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE CENTER OF CONTINENTAL POLAR...FALL-
LIKE...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWED THE HPC DAY 3-7 GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH ONLY MINOR LOCAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF IFR AND AIRPORT
RESTRICTIONS HAS MOVED EAST TODAY WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. STRATOCU CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE PARTIALLY
DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. FORECAST BEYOND 00Z IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN BEHAVIOR OF STRATOCU DISSIPATION AND ANY
SUBSEQUENT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BREAKS OF CLEAR SKY. WE THINK
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO WINDY AND THUS MIXY FOR DENSE
FOG...AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LAYERS OF STRATUS/STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN BUT COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. AM LEANING WITH THE COLDER AIR POURING ACROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE THE CLOUDS...RATHER THAN HAVING THE
RADIATIONAL FOG SET IN AFTER ABOUT 04Z-06Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN
TOWARD THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS VALID FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS
OF MVFR PROBABLE AFTER 18Z SUN.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...BECOMING VFR MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AND RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPLY KELM.

MON TO TUE...VFR.

WED...VFR/MVFR. SOME SHOWERS.

THU...VFR. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1221 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO...

7 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY.

4 AM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850
TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.

H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER
16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE
TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA.

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

901 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING US
RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL
BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS.
STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING
THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL
EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO...

7 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY.

4 AM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...

OUTLOOK...

SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA.

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

711 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...

LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

4 AM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ALSP POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER
16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE
TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA.

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

445 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP NY TERMINALS 06Z TO 12Z AS A CDFNT
MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO
AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS
FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN
TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A
BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP TMRW AFTN BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10
KTS...INCRSNG BY THIS AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

158 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS AND SHOW A
SHARPER DEFINED EDGE BETWEEN RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO DRY
WEATHER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW..

1015 PM UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MESO-
SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS SFC WAVE
ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF PA. WILL ADJUST POPS TO REFLECT THIS TREND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A WET SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NRN TIER OF PA.

7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE
OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE
CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT
SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT
DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME
MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE
50S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD
AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION
HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING
LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST
A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE
THE GREATER SYR AREA.

BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW
THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE
NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S
SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.

H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

132 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. FALL WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL
SWING FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL ENSURE A LOCALLY
COOL AIRMASS FOR NY LASTING SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OVER NEW YORK AT 03Z EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE BUFFALO AREA THEN FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TO AKRON OHIO. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S EAST OF THE
FRONT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE FRONT.
STEADY ANA-FRONTAL RAIN BAND STILL JUST WEST OF WNY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

STEADIER RAIN IS YET TO COME AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING PROVIDED BY STRONG JET AT 500 MB STREAMING OVER THE THE
LOWER LAKES REGION. 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR MODELS ALONG WITH SREF
ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE BAND OF STEADIER
RAIN ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT
A 9 HOUR WINDOW FOR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. FOR WNY AND SOUTHERN TIER
THIS IS 04-13Z...FOR FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTY 06-15Z. QPF
FORECAST IN LINE WITH HPC WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERHAPS THE TUG HILL AREA UNDER THE
HIGHEST QPF...WITH AMOUNTS NEARING OR EVEN EXCEEDING AN INCH...WITH
LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF
TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN
TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT 750MB
WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWING A DRYING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BUT
MOIST AIRMASS NEAR THE CAP. SO MAINLY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EAST
OF LAKE ERIE /CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS/ AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
GOOD MIXING /BREEZY/ AND MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...ABOUT 15-20F
COOLER THAN FRIDAY MAXES.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE WITH LOWERING
TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BRINGING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE RESPONSES ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN
FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND UPPER
30S INLAND WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING.

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A LAKE/DIURNAL
HYBRID AS THE DAY WEARS ON. COOL DAY FOR SURE WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAR INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
VARY LITTLE...BUT BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE WEAK RIDGING AND A MORE
WEST TO WSW WIND AND LIGHTER GRADIENT. WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
RESPONSE...AND ALSO EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS IN AREAS OF CLEARING
SKIES...ESP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE FREEZE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING A CRISP
AND DRY MONDAY...THEN THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BRING A MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS...PRECLUDING THE WORRY OF ANOTHER
SUBFREEZING NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL...AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND WARMER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...BUT THIS WILL COME AT A COST AS THE WARMER AIR WILL
PRESAGE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT
IS WELL DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS TO IFR AND LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AROUND 12-15Z SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS 20-30KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE
WSW OR W.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE...THE UPPER
NIAGARA AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT
WITH A GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY HAVE LEFT CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES UP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TOGETHER WITH RELATIVELY LAKE TEMPERATURES ADJACENT TO A
COOL AIRMASS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
EXCEEDING 3-7 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
WSW 15-25KTS SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>045.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

746 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BRING DRY WEATHER. A RE-
INFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...EARLIER BOUT OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS BASICALLY COME TO AN END WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
NOW MOVING NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING
LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO
THIS EVENING...AND THEN TRANSITION INTO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AS THE
COOL SURGE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD...
ENVELOPING THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. CURRENT FORECAST MINS LOOK
AOK...BUT LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE
DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION ONLY ARRIVES AND PARTIALLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE LAST OF THE FA. LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
RATHER SHALLOW SFC BASED COLD AIRMASS THAT BARELY REACHES 900MB BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE ON MONDAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. NET RESULT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY
WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. GRADUAL PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
DIMINISHES AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
MAXIMUMS ON TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REACH THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MINS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE TWO DRY
COLD FRONTS BRINGING DRY CANADIAN AIR SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY A
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE
WINDS BRING IN SUBTROPICAL HUMIDITY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED AS HIGH AS
+14 C ON THE 12Z GFS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 80 ACROSS MOST
OF OUR AREA. A SECOND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE +9 C TO +10 C RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL PUSH A SECOND DRY FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT WITH THE BULK
OF THE COLD ADVECTION REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
WITH EAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE HUMID SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
BECOMING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS MAY RETURN INTO THE
60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN MY FORECAST ARE SLIGHT CHANCES (20
PERCENT) NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY.
THESE ARE BARELY UP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
REPRESENT THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR DUE TO VISIBILITIES AT KILM FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR LESS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR DUE TO LOWERED CIGS TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KILM FOR JUST UNDER
THE NEXT HOUR...CREATING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...AS THE
FRONT PUSHES COMPLETELY OFFSHORE...LOW CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS TO HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
THERE STANDS A POTENTIAL FOR IFR DUE TO CIGS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO CREATE MVFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT
GIVEN LOWERED CHANCE HAVE OPTED NOT TO INTRODUCE IN CURRENT FCST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT MON
THROUGH TUES MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE NC-VA COASTS WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NE. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY GET
PULLED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NE 10-20KT
WINDS SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THIS SEEMS A BIT
OVERDONE AND QUICK GIVEN THE NATURE AND BEHAVIOR OF THIS COLD
FRONT DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. WILL CONTINUE THE PHRASEOLOGY OF
WINDS SHIFTING/INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WINDS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME N-NE AT 10-20 KT. SIG SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT...UP TO 3 TO 5 FT OFF CAPE FEAR...AND BECOME
DOMINATED BY PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM NE TO N THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SPEEDS SLOWLY FALL FROM 15 TO 20 KT MONDAY TO AROUND 10 KT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TWO DRY COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FRONT WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING THAT COULD
REACH 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES
DOMINATING.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

720 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE COAST BUT THE COLD AIR LAGS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH
COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER. PERIOD
WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND THREAT IS ONLY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER
INLAND DEEP CU HAS NOT DEVELOPED AND THREAT OF SHOWERS IS QUITE
LIMITED.

PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN/MIST
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MORE LIKELY THERE WILL
BE A LOW STRATUS CEILING FLIRTING WITH IFR THRESHOLDS ALL NIGHT.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP FOG FROM BEING AN ISSUE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT MON
THROUGH TUES MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE NC-VA COASTS WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NE. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY GET
PULLED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NE 10-20KT
WINDS SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THIS SEEMS A BIT
OVERDONE AND QUICK GIVEN THE NATURE AND BEHAVIOR OF THIS COLD
FRONT DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. WILL CONTINUE THE PHRASEOLOGY OF
WINDS SHIFTING/INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
...WINDS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME N-NE AT 10-20 KT. SIG SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT...UP TO 3 TO 5 FT OFF CAPE FEAR...AND BECOME
DOMINATED BY PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

300 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH
ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE
WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO
OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE
OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS.

COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG
STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT
CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER AS SEEN
THROUGH VARIOUS MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND AS WILL THE TIGHTEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL...PROBABLY MOSTLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS WHERE IT OCCURS
AT ALL. FROPA ITSELF MAY BE GENERALLY RAIN-FREE EXCEPT FOR SOME
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE
TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM THE MOST. THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER WILL BE THE UNDERCUTTING COOL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SETS UP
THAT PREVENTS JUST ABOUT ANY AND ALL WARMING UP ON MONDAY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE MID 60S AS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE EVER PRESENT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
PERSIST. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE NOT FAILED TO REACH 70 SINCE APRIL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY A TRANSITIONAL DAY FROM THE CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ASSOC WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE FROM THE SHORT
TERM TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE MAIN WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT A SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND. HOW MUCH OF ITS ASSOC LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL AIR REMAINS INTACT ON TUESDAY IS DIFFICULT
TO ASCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT GETS SCOURED OUT
WEDNESDAY THOUGH BY ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUT AN END TO THE TREND OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND
CAUSE THE LONG TERM TO END WITH A RETURN OF COOL CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUPPORTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY
DROPPING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS...08-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KLBT AND KFLO. ONCE
FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO MON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY
RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER
IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND
MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT
10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY
DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO
12 SECOND PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS START THE
PERIOD BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...A LITTLE LATER OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AS IT WILL BE DECELERATING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL KICK UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. AS THIS GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A FURTHER BUILDING OF SEAS WILL OCCUR, MAINLY WELL
AWAY FROM THE COAST DUE TO THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHETHER OR NOT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS 5 FT SEAS
MAY LINGER JUST OUTSIDE OF FRYING PAN SHOALS. SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR
TO BE SAFER AS WAVE SHADOWING OFF OF CAPE FEAR KEEPS SEAS A BIT
SMALLER FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR CORNER OF AMZ 256. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND SO HAVE
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THUS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES HAS SIMILARLY INCREASED.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS STILL IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ITS
TEMPORAL PERSISTENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING 5 FT SCEC-WORTHY
SEAS INTO PART OR ALL OF THE FORECAST ZONES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN HIGH LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS WILL SIMILARLY ABATE BY ABOUT A FOOT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/BJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

141 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR 1 MORE DAY...THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY
PUSH ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONE MORE DAY...RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FROPA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
A SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE ATTAINED
THOUGH MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
PRECIPITATION. POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. A 500 MB DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SURFACE DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY...
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PRESSES OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS WILL
BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS BARELY
REACHING THE MID 60S FROM LUMBERTON TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON.
USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERBATIM WOULD SUGGEST
SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALTHOUGH WITH DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ABSENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES
MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO MONDAY. COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHS EARLIER
GAVE US SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISE SKY COVER FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND "BRIDGES" WITH THE
OLD CANADIAN HIGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SPOTS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 11-14 C RANGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO MON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT W TO SW FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ADVISORY
FLAGS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RUN 2 FT OR SO INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES BACK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY WILL CREATE 15-20
KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND HIGH BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE FIRST COOL AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON TO MOVE
OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WATER
AND THE AIR WILL BE RATHER LARGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...RJD/BJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

820 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING DOWN FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. NOT ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD INITIALIZATION ON
THIS LIGHT PRECIP. RUC LOOKS THE CLOSEST SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS UNTIL 9Z ACROSS CORSON AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

WEAK TROF SITUATED OVER THE CWA MARKS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VERY
DRY AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE MID 30S...AND THIS AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHER TIER OF THE CONUS TONIGHT AND
PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE CHIEF CONCERN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH 30-40KT H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN EARLY. COLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -2 TO -6C BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...TWO SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER
TROF EACH WITH A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF...UNDER WHICH
NEITHER IS REPRESENTED WITH FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH GET PUSHED EAST BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DRY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PUSHES
EAST ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE ROCKIES. FRIDAY MAY BE A
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA ON SATURDAY. A
DECENT SIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...POSSIBLE REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY WHEN FAIRLY COOL AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 50 DEGREES
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS THAT DAY. H85 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30
MPH AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS
INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 12Z KLZK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION UP TO AROUND 790 MB
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. MODELS
DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL BUT THE 00Z HI-RES
WRF-ADVANCED RESEARCH MODEL /WRF-ARW/ AND THE LATEST RUC ARE STILL
A BIT TOO SLOW BUT PICKING UP THE BEST ON THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
IN ADDITION...RUC 300-310K SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS UP ACCORDINGLY AND MENTION
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF
I-40. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS CLOUD
COVER AND RETURNING PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING EARLIER FORECASTED HIGHS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
AND COOL AIR IS POURING SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 43 DEGREES AT WALNUT RIDGE AR TO 63 DEGREES IN
MONROE COUNTY MS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND THE CLEARING LINE WILL
MOVE SOUTH TO PERHAPS I-40. THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY
LATER TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
40 TO 45 DEGREES TONIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PULL OUT OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE TEMPORARY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION SPREADING MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL
AGAIN WITH READINGS AROUND 60. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKER AND THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIP WITH IT...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMPLICATE
THE LOW TEMP FORECAST HOWEVER AS MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING ACROSS NW
SECTIONS WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEFT SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND EXTREME NW TN.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER THE EARLY OCTOBER SUN WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH
SOME FROST POTENTIAL NEAR THE TN RIVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION BEGINS
PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.

SJM

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH HAS BEEN BETWEEN RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS NOW DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. JBR AND MEM SHOULD SEE RAIN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE AT MEM. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW
3SM FOR BRIEF PERIODS...BUT PREVAILING VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 5SM OR GREATER. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AR MKL AROUND 20Z...AND
AT TUP AROUND 22Z. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH 5-6K FT CIGS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 56 45 61 44 / 50 50 10 20
MKL 55 42 59 39 / 40 60 10 10
JBR 53 40 59 38 / 50 60 10 10
TUP 60 45 62 43 / 50 40 20 20

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS
INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 12Z KLZK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION UP TO AROUND 790 MB
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. MODELS
DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL BUT THE 00Z HI-RES
WRF-ADVANCED RESEARCH MODEL /WRF-ARW/ AND THE LATEST RUC ARE STILL
A BIT TOO SLOW BUT PICKING UP THE BEST ON THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
IN ADDITION...RUC 300-310K SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS UP ACCORDINGLY AND MENTION
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF
I-40. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS CLOUD
COVER AND RETURNING PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING EARLIER FORECASTED HIGHS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...

SJM
&&
.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

CIGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...WITH
CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT MEM...MKL...AND TUP EXPECTED TO LIFT
TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. JBR IS ALREADY VFR AND LIKELY REMAIN
THERE UNTIL LATER WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. A FEW
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MEM AND MKL...SO HAVE
PLACED A TEMPO GROUP TO INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AFTER 07/04Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 16-18KTS DURING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

JAB

.AVIATION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 56 45 61 44 / 50 50 10 20
MKL 55 42 59 39 / 40 60 10 10
JBR 53 40 59 38 / 50 60 10 10
TUP 60 45 62 43 / 50 40 20 20

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

426 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
OVER THE COLD AIR...BRINGING A WET AND COLD DAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO TENNESSEE. THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FEATURE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 19-21Z.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR FOR THIS FRONT...LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
VERY WEAK. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY WILL ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES WERE THE HIGHS POPS CONTINUE TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ELSEWHERE.

BIGGER CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPS. EURO MOS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE THE GFS OR NAM MOS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING ALL OF THESE MODELS HAVE HAD A WARM BIAS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. KRLX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 25-35KT WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
INCLUDED SOME 20KT+ WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
BY 12Z SUNDAY...HELPS CREATE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER A SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...RESULTING IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AFTER 06Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE AND LOCALLY DERIVED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...ALBEIT NOTHING
MAJOR. IN GENERAL...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. WITH AN ACTIVE KINEMATIC...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EVIDENT. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL PERSIST WITHIN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LEAVING MUCH OF OUR CWA IN A
TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. AT LEAST THREE
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO IMPACT THE CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. FIRST...A VERY WET COLD DAY IS IN ORDER FOR SUN AS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...THANKS TO
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF SAT. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A SOLID LIGHT RAIN/OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN
EVENT FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUN.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE...WITH IT NOW EXITING THE CWA ABOUT 6 HRS SOONER
THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY. HENCE...A SIGNIFICANT GRADATION IN POPS
FROM 100 EARLY MORNING TO LESS THAN 20 ONLY ACROSS THE EAST BY
EVENING. QPF REMAINS VERY MODEST DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.0 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...SO NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AND SOLID RAIN SUN...TEMPS WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE...STAYING
MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 50S PIEDMONT REGION. THERE IS SOME
MINOR CONCERN FOR S- IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR WV
MOUNTAINS...NOTING THAT RLX HAS INCLUDED S- ACROSS POCAHONTAS
COUNTY. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP INTO THE -2C RANGE SUN ACROSS THIS
REGION...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH TO ANY EXTENT.
THUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF S- AT THIS POINT.

THE SUNDAY SYSTEM NO MORE EXITS TO THE EAST BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM AL/GA ACROSS SC/NC IN
THE 12Z MON TO 00Z TUE TIME FRAME. LATEST MODEL RUNS...PARTICULARLY
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER NORTH AND SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO ALLEVIATE CONSIDERABLY THE CONCERN FOR FROST/FREEZE MON
MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF JUST PATCHY FROST TO OUR WV
VALLEYS FOR MON MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS NEARLY
EVERY CLOUD SCHEME ATTEMPTED TO GIVE ME 100 PERCENT CLOUD COVER
MON MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...HAVE INTRODUCED
-RA FROM NW NC INTO THE SE VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES FOR MON IN
ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST THINKING AND THE FAIRLY HEALTHY DYNAMICS
EXHIBITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS WITH SUN...THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE
AGAIN PLAY HAVOC WITH MAX TEMPS MON...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COLDEST READINGS I COULD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...WITHOUT GOING OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. SOME
OF OUR SE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE UPPER
40S.

BY TUE MORNING...THIS LATER SYSTEM HAS EXITED THE REGION AND THE
PARENT CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED INTO CENTRAL VA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO NONE AT THIS POINT...AND AS OF
NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
FROST AND/OR FREEZE. BY THE SAME TOKEN...THE WESTERN
AREAS...USUALLY THE COLDEST...WILL BEGIN TO SEE RETURN FLOW...SO
BY THIS POINT FROST/FREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORMALLY
SHELTERED...PROTECTED AND DECOUPLED SPOTS.

BY WED...A NORTHERN STREAM/ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM PROMISES TO
BRING MORE CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME MORE -RA TO THE REGION.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
REINFORCING SHORTS OF COOL AIR AND A PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC NW
FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST...MAINLY THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ALLOWING WARM
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA ON A SOUTHERLY WIND TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ONLY PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
NEXT FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IF
THE FRONT IS SLOWER OR BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN ENTERS FRIDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT FOLLOWED
THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM
12-16Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KBLF
FOR SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING.

THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS KBLF/KLWB BETWEEN 12-14Z...KBCB
BETWEEN 14-16Z...KROA 15-17Z...KLYH 16-18Z...AND DAN 19Z-21Z.
ONLY A PASSING SHOWER EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND NO PRECIP WAS INCLUDED AT ANY TAF SITES FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF
VA/NC. A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT (AFTER 06Z) THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR BY
SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING WITH PERIOD OF POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR CLEARING SKIES MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR...WHICH SERVES ROANOKE AND THE SURROUNDING
AREAS...WILL REMAIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE INSTALLATION
OF THE NEW DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY CONTINUES. THE RADAR MAY RETURN TO
SERVICE AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...WAKEFIELD VA
(KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
(KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PH
EQUIPMENT...RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

139 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BY
SUNDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE COLD AIR...BRINGING A COLD WET DAY TO THE
REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EDT FRIDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE.
MODELS STILL BRING FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.
MADE MINOR CHANGES IN TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE TO NO ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...PROVIDING THE
TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HEADED IN OUR
DIRECTION. AS OF 4PM FRIDAY...FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS OH TO PADUCAH KY CMH-PAH. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP WAS CONFINED TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH...SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE FRONT FCST
TO PASS THROUGH THE BLUEFIELD/LEWISBURG CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12-15Z
(8-11AM) SATURDAY...ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG/BOONE/BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 14-17Z (10AM-1PM)...LYNCHBURG/MARTINSVILLE BETWEEN 16-19Z
(NOON- 3PM)...THEN THROUGH DANVILLE BETWEEN 19Z-22Z (3PM-6PM).
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS LIMITING POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. MODEL QPF OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS IS FORECAST...POPS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN CWA ALONG THE
WINDWARD SLOPES...AND LOWEST ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY. WARMEST
READINGS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
WHERE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THE LATEST. COOLEST READINGS ARE
ADVERTISED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN VA WHERE THE FRONT
WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY WILL STALL
OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE AREA STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...EXITING BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE
REGION A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY. WITH THIS RAIN COMING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND FALLING MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT (ANAFRONT)...DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. A SECOND
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL KICK THE
FRONT FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR 40F IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FROST...HOWEVER...THE
GROUND MAY BE TOO WET AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK
OVER THE AREA. I HAVE LEFT IN SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS WITH SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY...THEREFORE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT SATURDAY...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PH
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

633 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGHING...WHICH INCLUDE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE
FORECAST AREA NOW...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDING THE
SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE... A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FORECAST
AREA...AHEAD OF A 1002MB LOW IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY WARMING THINGS...WITH RAP 850MB
TEMPS AT MPX NOW AROUND 0C COMPARED TO -5C PER 12Z SOUNDING.
AIRMASS QUITE DRY TOO WITH MPX SOUNDING SHOWING 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER OR 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKING IT TO
NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. CO-LOCATED NEARLY RIGHT
UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW...PROGGED TO DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY...WITH ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHING MINNEAPOLIS AND SIOUX
CITY IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO STAY
PUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTED TO GET EVEN
STRONGER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS...BUT ANTICIPATING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MIXING ANYWHERE FROM 850MB TO 800MB WHERE A WIND CORE OF 35-40 KT IS
PRESENT. THUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. REGARDING THE
MIXING...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE DEPTH GIVEN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. 700MB RH FIELDS FROM THE 07.12Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL DEPICT THE CURRENT ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN SPREADING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HINT AT EVEN PRECIPITATION FROM TAYLOR COUNTY NORTHWARD COMING OUT
OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN ALL OTHER MODELS DRY AND THE DEEP
MIXING...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING. REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PROPEL 850MB TEMPS UP TO
4-6C BY 18Z...ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S. TAYLOR
COUNTY MAY GET STUCK IN THE 50S...THOUGH...DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY. COMBINATION OF THE WINDS...
TEMPERATURES...ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...KEPT UP BY THE WINDS. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT A FROST/FREEZE IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT TEMPERATURES
MAY END UP RIGHT AROUND 32F AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT GET
HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE...MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH LOOKS
MORE POTENT DROPPING DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INITIALLY...SINCE IT
CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN PARALLEL. NOT UNTIL TUESDAY DOES THE
FRONT GET A BETTER PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. THUS...MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
BIGGER ISSUE THOUGH IS IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR. THERE IS SOME
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE PRETTY DRY WITH ONLY HINTS
OF A LITTLE LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY IN A NARROW BAND. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE FORCING NOT THAT STRONG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHICH ARE JUST CLIMBING TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
AT 12Z. TUESDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH THE MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. THIS SHORTWAVE ENHANCES THE FRONTOGENESIS
CIRCULATION AND NOW THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER IS IN PLACE. ALL
MODELS DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY EVEN MODERATE RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
THE POTENCY OF THE SHORTWAVE...THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A MAX OF 60 IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...STAYED ON THE COOLER OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...PERHAPS REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY 06Z. THE ENHANCED
FRONTOGENESIS BAND COULD STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z ECMWF...
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THAT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING COMES IN ALOFT...WHICH MAY TRAP
SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS STILL WELL TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY REACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...FAVORING TOO THE CLOUDS TO STAY IN
PLACE. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME MIXING AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES...
PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN WHICH IS MORE IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW.
850MB TEMPS DROP QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING FROM 0-4C AT
00Z TO -2 TO -4C AT 12Z. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY BREEZE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS PLUS CLOUDS MAY END UP HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...LEANED A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SHOWED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

07.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE DEEP TROUGHING...
CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO COME THROUGH DRY...WITH YET ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...GET PUSHED TO THE EAST. MODEL
HANDLING YESTERDAY WAS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT NOW ALL
MODELS ARE IN SYNC IN LIFTING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO
NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
INDICATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...THERE ARE EVEN SIGNALS OF A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE TO
SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFT INTO IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90...WHERE 850MB TEMPS ARE CLIMBING
TOWARDS 10-12C AND MUCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THOSE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT RELATED TO DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...THEN WITH A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW NORMAL...EVEN WITH THAT WARMER AIR COMING UP ON
SATURDAY. THE PROBLEM WITH SATURDAY IS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AND THE RAIN AROUND. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN
HIGHS IN THE 50S. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS ALMOST OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ARE LIKELY.

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
632 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT.
07.18Z NAM AND 07.21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. NAM A LITTLE STRONGER WITH 42 KNOTS AT 1500
FEET. IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEY AT KLSE COULD SEE SOME
LLWS. HOWEVER...WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVERNIGHT FEEL
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 06Z IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH BASES BETWEEN 080K-090K FEET. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DEEPER
MIXING NY MID MORNING AND THUS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS AT BOTH SITES.

.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY
327 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

A BREEZY SOUTH WIND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WILL HELP PREVENT FULL RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT
GIVEN DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW IN THE TEENS. MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITY
VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT AT MOST.
THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS
RESULTS IN SOME ISSUES...PRIMARILY WITH FINE FUELS. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 60S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRES. THE ONGOING MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT PLUS MOST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING A FREEZE ALSO
CREATES EXTRA CONCERN FOR FIRES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MINNESOTA
AND IOWA FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ONLY DROP TO 25-30
PERCENT. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WISCONSIN FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS...HAVE
DECLINED TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND FINALLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S....WHILE DEEP TROUGHING WAS PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITHIN THE TROUGHING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WEST TOWARDS
NEBRASKA. UNDERNEATH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS AN AREA OF BROKEN
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR DULUTH. MUCH OF THIS
STRATUS WAS SITUATED AT 750MB OR BELOW PER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
INL...MPX AND GRB. THE REASON THE DECK IS NOT A SOLID OVERCAST IS
THAT THE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW COMPLETE SATURATION. IN FACT...SOME
OF THE STRATUS FORMATION HAS BEEN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...NOTED
BY HOLES THAT FILLED IN DURING THE MORNING. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST ON WATER VAPOR...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC RIDGE. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 12Z THE PAS
MANITOBA SOUNDING HAS RESULTED IN THE SHORTWAVE JUST PRODUCING A
BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. 850MB TEMPS CHILLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN -5 AND -7C PER 12Z RAOBS...OR 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS
PROGGED TO KEEP DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH...
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL DO A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER MINNESOTA
WILL GET PUSHED DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS AND THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVE IN...SKIES WILL
CLEAR. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AS WELL...EXCLUDING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THE COOL DAY TODAY...THE
SETUP CERTAINLY FAVORS LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AS HAS BEEN
FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
WISCONSIN COULD EVEN HIT THE UPPER TEENS. FREEZE WARNINGS
THEREFORE STILL LOOK GOOD WITH THIS LIKELY BEING THE END OF THE
GROWING SEASON. THE SECOND THING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DO IS
TO SPREAD THE CIRRUS AND SOME MID CLOUDS SEEN UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...
DOWNSLOPING OF AIR OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF WARMER 925-850MB AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 18Z... 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 2-4C AND -3
TO -5C RESPECTIVELY. COMBINE THESE WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH AND HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WILL
HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PLUMMET INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE...RAISING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE ARE NOTED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
WELL UP TO THE NORTHWEST...NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF DROPPING
THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE DEEP TROUGH...REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIES IT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS EVEN MORE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND
ALSO ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT OFF THE ROCKIES. AS SUCH...925 AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 6C AND 4C RESPECTIVELY AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS WARM
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESULT AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HEADING INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL HELP PRODUCE A
MUCH WARMER NIGHT...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TRACK...DEPTH AND
SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...THOUGH...
THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO HEAD
EAST...LIKELY ALONG THE ONTARIO/MN BORDER. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW STAYS TO OUR WEST...ONLY REACHING ALBERTA LEA BY 00Z.
925MB AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TOPPING
OUT AT 12-14C AND 6-8C RESPECTIVELY. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO NEAR 850MB. ONLY CAVEAT IS
THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH LOOK TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ARE
REASONABLE...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO 70 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST AGAIN WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
RIDGE...DIGGING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ON TOP OF THE
POST-FRONTAL MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL ALREADY EXIST. SO
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
GRADUALLY OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD UNTIL THIS SHORTWAVE CAN CATCH
UP...ANTICIPATE A BAND OF RAIN TO DEVELOP. THIS SIGNAL OF THE BAND
OF RAIN CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER...WITH THE 06.12Z GFS...NAM...
UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL DEPICTING IT. AS SUCH...HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO AROUND 40. FURTHER INCREASES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ONLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH...SO MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
THE FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SLOW COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LOWS IN THE 40S SUGGESTED BY MAV/MET GUIDANCE SEEM
REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS DO GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 0C BY 00Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHWEST
WHICH ENDS UP MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 06.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ABOUT A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...WITH THE CURRENT DEEP TROUGH LIFTING OUT ON FRIDAY.
WE STILL HAVE ONE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH DROPPING THE
TROUGH PRIOR TO LIFT-OUT...PROGGED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THURSDAY. AFTER FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S..
EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS EJECTION OCCURS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE...WITH THE LATEST 06.12Z GFS THE FASTEST AMONGST ALL MODELS
AND PAST 1-2 DAYS OF RUNS OF THE MODEL. THE GFS HAS THIS DEEP LOW
LIFTING UP INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z SUNDAY. EJECTING UPPER
LOWS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ARE ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS...SINCE THEY HINGE ON UPPER TROUGHS CROSSING THE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...
THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A SLOWER IDEA ENDS UP PANNING
OUT PER MODEL BIASES.

IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR COMES
WITH THIS RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -4C. THUS...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
TODAY OR TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE THURSDAY
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WE GET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO LIMITED SPACING
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS FRONT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
SURGE OF 4-6C 850MB AIR IS PROGGED TO COME INTO THE AREA ON STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SO WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-90. ANOTHER COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND -4C AT 12Z. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS APPROACH AND SPREADING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE ALL DUE TO
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COMING INTO THE
COLDER AIRMASS SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MORE REFINEMENT OF
THESE CHANCES WILL COME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TIMING OF
THE UPPER LOW EJECTION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TOO WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS BY SATURDAY STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY 5 OR SO
DEGREES...NOT LIKE THE 15-20 AS OF LATE.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAFS SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES IN THE 3 TO 4 KFT RANGE.
PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 13 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KTS POSSIBLE AT KRST. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MVFR CLOUD DECK BECOMING SCATTERED
AND RISING TO AROUND 5 KFT AND DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLIGHTS EAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. PLAN ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE
9 TO 14 KT RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SETTING THE STAGE FOR THESE CONDITIONS IS THE MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A
KILLING FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF
12-22 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO STILL BE LOW...THANKS TO MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
RECENT COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...LINGERING COLD AIR THAT ONLY SLOWLY
MODIFIES WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...
LOWEST SOUTH AND WEST OF I-94. THEREFORE...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD BE THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

FOR MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...STRONGER WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED...IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH.
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BRING UP A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY COUNTERACT IT BY JUMPING INTO THE 60S. THEREFORE...MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BETWEEN 25-35
PERCENT...LOWEST ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES STILL
SLIGHTLY COOL AND ESPECIALLY POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS...
CONDITIONS AGAIN JUST LOOK NEAR CRITICAL. THE CLOUDS COULD BE
QUITE PROBLEMATIC BY KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED.

PER COORDINATION WITH AREA FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES...HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY COULD OCCUR
SOUTH OF I-90 ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012

WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041-
053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-088-096.

IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ011-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW...POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TODAY...AND WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED FLOW...MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW IS
DOMINATED BY A BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE THAT HAS PUSHED WEST SINCE YESTERDAY. TROUGH CONTINUES OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS LEAVES AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF
THE THEM PRETTY STRONG. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS HAS TAKEN
PLACE.

AT JET LEVEL...NEAR OUR AREA...THE NAM...CANADIAN...AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER. STRONG JET COMING FROM CANADA IS A LITTLE
UNDERDONE AND TOO FAR EAST. THE GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING A BETTER
JOB WITH THIS FEATURE. AT MID LEVELS MODELS WERE CLOSE. HOWEVER THEY
TENDED TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA AND THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF IT TOO FAR EAST. OVERALL...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF/NAM AND THE ECMWF. THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ON THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SINCE MIDNIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME POCKETS OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROST. HOWEVER...A LOT OF
LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH END OF
SHOT BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY CANCEL THIS ADVISORY EARLY.

WE START THE DAY BEING THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WHICH MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. THAT AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS MAINLY INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. WINDS START OUT IN A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION AND THEN BECOME
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND
RECENT TRENDS/BIASES SUPPORT KEEPING ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THERE.

LOWER DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

BY THE END OF THE NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOME.
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...
WINDS ARE REALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND
SHOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP A LOT BEFORE MIXING STABILIZES THEM.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE MORNING. THIS SPREADS SOME THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
MODELS HAVE INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SINCE YESTERDAY. RATHER
TIGHT GRADIENT AND DECENT 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT DEFINITELY
BREEZY AND POSSIBLY WINDY.

COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE
MAXES DOWN. DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH BUT KEPT MAXES NEAR WHAT THE
RECENT TRENDS AND APPLIED BIASES SUPPORT. RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT
THE FAR WEST. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BACK
UP DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATE 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AS WELL. SO
COULD BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOO THICK AND MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING
THE RIDGING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM. SURFACE RIDGE PULLS OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE NOT TOO DIFFERENT. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER PREVIOUS REASONING.

MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE JET DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME KIND OF JET LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING AND LAPSE RATES AS
WELL. IF MOISTURE WAS LOWER WOULD SAY SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR BUT JUST
SHOULD BE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE MODELS DRIVE SOME KIND OF BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
SUPPORT FOR THAT WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT IN. NO
MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. WILL GO WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN CAPE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
GOOD AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE CWA. WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT ARE SLIGHTLY OUT OF AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE EC TAKES THE TRACK
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM TAKING A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS IT HEADS
ON TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR KMCK DUE TO THE LATEST NAM/SREF MODELS
HINTING AT SOME FOG. RUC SOUNDINGS AND MOS STILL DO NOT SUPPORT
FOG FORMATION...BUT THE MOIST GROUND AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

LOWER DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. NAM HAS STRONGER WINDS AND BELIEVE
IT IS OVERDONE AND OVERMIXING/RAISING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE INDICATED TODAY. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AND THEY MAY NOT BE IN CONCERT FOR THE THREE HOUR TIME
PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-002-
013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1118 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
LOWER DEW POINTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL CITY TO NORTON AREA. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE GUSTS DECLINING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DECLINES TO 15 PERCENT. THERE MAY BE A SMALL TWO
OR THREE HOUR WINDOW WHEN THE GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MEET
CRITERIA. HOWEVER HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THE CONDITIONS WILL MEET
THE 3 HOUR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-002-
013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1000 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001-002-
013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

309 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC LOW OVER NRN ME AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO ERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND RUC ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGH 12Z. LOADED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR HRLY TEMP/DP. LOADED MATCH GUIDANCE FOR
MAX/MIN. LOADED NAM/GFS BLEND FOR WND/SKY/POP. ADDED 25 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER WATER...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA TUE AM WILL REMAIN RIDGED BACK TO THE
W ACROSS OUR AREA THRU THE DAY AS A DIGGING TROF OF LOW PRES OVR
THE GRT LAKES KICKS OUT A LEAD SHORT WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO RIDE
NEWRD UP THE ERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AND UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATER TUE... BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DVLP WEAK SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST TUE AM IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE AND LIFT
THIS SYSTEM NEWRD UP ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE LATER TUE/TUE
NGT. NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WWRD W/ THIS SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDINGLY
BRINGS A BIT MORE PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SRN/SERN AREAS. USED A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE NAM/GFS WHICH YIELDS CHC POPS THESE AREAS. BY
WED... THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWRD INTO ERN NB AND W/ A STRONG DIGGING
SFC TROF BY THIS TIME APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE UPPER TROF
WHICH HAD BEEN OVR THE GRT LAKES DRIVES EWRD...WILL CARRY CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA... TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THRU THIS PD...
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER TROF PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WED
NGT W/ STRONG CAA ON BRISK NW WNDS TO FOLLOW FOR THU AS A WEAK SFC
HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVR THE REGION... A SECONDARY UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS FCST TO FOLLOW QUICKLY FOR LATER THU/THU NGT W/ A WEAK SFC
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING
A ROUND OF RELATIVELY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION INCLUDING A CHC FOR
THE REGION/S FIRST FLAKES OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN AND NWRN AREAS
THU NGT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON FRI ON BRISK NW WINDS W/ VERY CHILLY BUT DRY CONDS THRU THE
WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SLIDES S OF THE AREA. USED GMOS TEMPS FOR NOW
BUT THESE MAY BE TYPICALLY TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ADVERTISED CAA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED PD...
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE/TUE NGT W/ PSBL MVFR TO
IFR CONDS DVLPG BY LATER WED AS A DIGGING LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES/THEN CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN FOR THU
W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR PSBL LATER THU NGT INTO FRI AS A WEAK
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WAVE CROSSES NRN MAINE.&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORTON
MARINE...NORTON/KHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

118 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT,
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION, WITH SOME WET SNOW ABOVE 3000
FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD QUICKLY MOVING EWD TNGT...AS
S/WV TROF AXIS IS PASSING OVERHEAD. HAVE CLEANED UP THE POP AND
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICKER CLEARING. SOMETHING ALONG THE
LINES OF THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. OTHERWISE...HAVE ALTERED
TEMPS/DEW POINTS TO KEEP THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED. LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE
AS OF 1030 PM. LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED ON TOP OF MOUNT
WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY
ALLOWING FOR A COATING AS LOW AS 2500 OR 3000 FT. OTHERWISE...RAIN
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT SOME FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
WITH SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A SYSTEM PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
KEEP A LID ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HOW WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO
END.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN
MAINE...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP AS A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY..COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LIKELY SEEING A DEEP FREEZE AS
MOISTURE CONTENT DROPS VERY LOW IN THE RESULTANT AIRMASS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT IN RAIN
AND FOG WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN FOG. VFR EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

KRKD COMMS OUTAGE CONTINUES...AND TAFS WILL BE ISSUED AS AMD NOT
SKED.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING VFR ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH FOR ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...CONDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO
SCA LVLS.

LONG TERM....SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

551 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP...FULL
LATITUDE UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON
BAY. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS RDG AND LO PRES TROF EXTENDING ACRS SRN
CANADA FM LO CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDING E INTO NW ONTARIO
ARE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCES ON CURRENT WX OVER UPR MI. THE STEADY
WSW FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON
THE 00Z MPX RAOB INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIER CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE 290-295K SFCS /H7-6/. MID CLDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE JUST TO THE
N OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE TROF OVER SRN CANADA...BUT THE DRYNESS OF
THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS RESTRICTING SHRA COVERAGE TO
N OF THE BORDER. THERE ARE SCT -SHRA IN THE NRN PLAINS NEAR H85 TROF
AND UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. PCPN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOSER TO THE LO CENTER NEAR SASKATCHEWAN/LK WINNIPEG
CLOSER TO MORE VIGOROUS SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290K SFC WL
RESULT IN THICKENING MID CLDS FM THE N AND W...PERSISTENCE OF LLVL
DRY ADVECTION FM THE SW WL REMAIN A SGNFT IMPEDIMENT TO ANY -SHRA.
THE BEST CHC FOR -SHRA WL BE LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE W WHERE
SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD FM CNTRL CANADA IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY 21Z AND
BEGIN TO MORE THOROUGHLY LIFT/SATURATE THE MID TROP. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING PCPN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...BUT PREFER THE
DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS GIVEN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE DRY LYR AOB H85 BY DRY ADVECTION. ONE OTHER SGNFT FEATURE
TODAY WL BE GUSTY WINDS AS FCST SDNGS SHOW A WELL MIXED SFC-H85
PROFILE THAT WL ENHANCE TRANSPORT TO THE SFC OF H925 WINDS FCST TO
REACH 35-40KTS BY 00Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
MORE EXPOSED ERN ZNS DOWNWIND OF LK MI...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS
FCST TO BE SHARPEST/H925 WINDS STRONGEST. FCST SDNGS INDICATE HI
TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS AFTN.

TNGT...SHRTWV/LO PRES WILL TRACK ENEWD THRU ONTARIO. THE SHARP PRES
FALL MOVING THRU ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES WL ENHANCE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT/SLY FLOW...SO OPTED TO GO WITH WIND ADVY
FOR THE EXPOSED ERN ZNS BORDERING LK MI WITH WELL MIXED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ENHANCING THE MIXING OF H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS. SINCE
SHARPER FORCING LIFTS NE THRU ONTARIO WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO...SUSPECT
PCPN SHIELD WL TEND TO DRY UP AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
MOVES TO THE E...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI...WHERE SOME MOISTENING OFF
THAT BODY OF WATER WL ENHANCE POPS A BIT. DRY SLOTTING ALF UNDER THE
JET SURGE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV TRACK WL TEND TO END POPS OVER
THE W LATER AT NGT FOLLOWING ATTENDANT COLD FROPA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

THE GALES OF NOVEMBER HAVE STARTED IN OCTOBER. AFTER A FAIRLY QUITE
PERIOD...WE ARE BACK TO GALES OR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF GALES
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURROUNDING UPPER MI.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE SFC LOW WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF COOLER AIR...MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW OVER N CANADA AND HUDSON BAY. NW WINDS
NEAR THE SFC...AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW -6C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE TOO WARM NEAR THE SHORELINE
TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
EVEN THROUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /-7 TO -8C/ WILL TOUCH THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
ALREADY BE SCOURED OUT...AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THANKS TO THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE E OF MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...
WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE NW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY...AS THE CUT OFF
LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE N CA SHORELINE DIGS TO THE 4-CORNERS
AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL SLIDE OVER IA/MN SATURDAY
EVENING...AND BECOME PART OF THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE 08/00Z RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS
BECOME A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND FASTER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ENTIRE AREA COULD GET OVER 0.25-0.5IN OF RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND ON MUCH WARMER AIR AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO 10-12C AS THE
NE TRACKING SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER W OR CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

EXPECT INTERVALS OF MID/HI CLDS INTO MONDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PD. PLAN ON SOME MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION ALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WIND. SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT KCMX
AND KIWD AT THIS TIME WHERE FORCING WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE ALONG THE
FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN A HI IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A LO MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MN...EXPECT
STRENGTHENING S-SW WINDS THRU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ONSET OF GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST MAY BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...GALES STILL SEEM LIKELY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SO
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS WARNING. THESE S GALES WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE WSW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE AREA BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE EXPECTED
WSW FLOW ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.

A SECONDARY TROUGH/ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP
25-30KT WINDS SWITCHING TO A NW DIRECTION TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING NW WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR.
A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 35KT GALES OUT OF THE W TO NW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON /MAINLY ACROSS E LS/...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FIGURED
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.

GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221.

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07/KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

401 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO FALL TO
FREEZING TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE LAKE CLOUDINESS KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIMITED FROST AND FREEZE THREAT. ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION EARLY
THIS MORNING...PLAN ON CANCELLING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THE
MORNING ISSUANCE. COLDER NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT...WITH A FREEZE
WATCH PLANNED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN TRYING TO ORGANIZE AS FLOW BACKS..WITH THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE. LATEST HRRR AND WRF
SUGGESTING A SEVERAL HOURS PERIOD THIS MORNING WHEN THE LAKE
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND MAYBE EVEN LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO NIAGARA FALLS...HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORELINE AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.
THE LAKE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY NOON TIME IF NOT EARLIER AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER GREATLY WITH THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE ACTIVITY HERE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DISORGANIZED WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND OSWEGO...BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF SUGGESTING THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BEFORE TAKING ON AN UPTICK AS THE
FLOW BACKS AND FOCUSES A MORE ORGANIZED BAND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY/NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY MID DAY. SIMILAR TO THE ACTIVITY
OFF ERIE...A DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OR SO AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS.

ONCE THE LAKE ACTIVITY ENDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
LEFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN 0C AND -2C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD
SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES...AS WELL AS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FREEZE
WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER FROST ADVISORIES AROUND THE WATCH AREA.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT RATHER CHILLY WITH AREAS OF
FROST EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z. AFTER THAT...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW REACHES JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT...ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR IN
THE MORNING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. ALSO
EXPECT RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR FACILITATES AN EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTACT EAST OF THE LAKES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
DEEPENS. THE MODELS DO SHOW A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. AREA TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE INLAND VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSE TO
THE LAKES WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNLIKE A WEEK AGO...GLOBAL MODELS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL START COOL...THOUGH WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE...WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE MAINLY SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES
TO INCREASE...SUPPORTING THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FETCH OFF THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LATER ON FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...WHILE SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERCAST AS SFC WINDS
VEER TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...850S DROPPING TO -4C OR SO...FRIDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS MAY HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP ACROSS WNY WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE MAY EVEN HAVE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM AIRMASS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST
AND ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
THE LIKELY DAY WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT AND RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL
FAVOR CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHC
POPS TO THE NORTH.

EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S...MAYBE EVEN SOME 60S ACROSS WARMER AREAS...WHILE ON SUNDAY MOST
AREAS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ONGOING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. BAND OFF LAKE
ERIE IS WEAK ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...BUT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD KBUF/KIAG TOWARD 10Z. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A BETTER
ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. FZY IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS.

ON MONDAY ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIFT
NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND DISSIPATE...WITH MOST OF THIS BEING
VFR. OTHERWISE ANY MORNING SUNSHINE FILLING IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS WITH VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS LIKELY REQUIRING MARINE FLAGS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ007-008-011>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH 09Z. BOTH THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.01Z RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AT
KLSE. THIS IS AN INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE ADDED
LLWS TO THE KLSE SITE. STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AT KRST WILL LIKELY
KEEP THEM BELOW LLWS CRITERIA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 10Z AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN
070-090K FEET AFTER 15Z AT BOTH SITES AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z.
WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING
MONDAY...WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 32 KNOTS
AT THE SITES...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY
327 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

907 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW IS CURRENTLY EXITING EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN MS VALLEY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DECENT
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SPREADING INTO MS/AL IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST/TROPICAL
PROFILE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS WITH A PW OF AROUND 2".

AT THE SURFACE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED FROM
NEAR THE GA COAST WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND THEN
OUT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES THE MOIST
TROPICAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR ZONES FROM A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FILTERING DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
AL/GA.

A COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEEP LAYER QG FORCING AHEAD OF
THE PRE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT A VAIL
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE PROFILE IS MOIST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES THIS MORNING TO RESULT FROM
THIS VAIL...HOWEVER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

THAT BEING SAID...THE ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN BOTH THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE RESULTING DECREASE IN SOLAR INSOLATION WILL
CERTAINLY SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE THIS MORNING AND AT LEAST
DELAY...IF NOT ALSO WEAKEN THE EVENTUAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WHICH WILL ALSO DELAY REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES (MIDDLE 80S). CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 50% POPS/COVERAGE FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
FORECAST ALONE DUE TO SOME ADDED SYNOPTIC LIFT IN THE VICINITY THAT
SHOULD SOMEWHAT HELP TO OVERCOME THE THERMAL LIMITATIONS. LATEST
HRRR RUNS AND LOCAL HI-RES WRFARW HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
SO FAR THIS MORNING AND HENCE APPEAR TO BE OF LIMITED USAGE
EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 00Z NCEP HIRES WINDOW RUNS ARE
CURRENTLY MORE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORT THE CHANCE POP
FORECAST AFTER 18Z.

TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANOTHER KICK SOUTHWARD. ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THIS SOUTHWARD SURGE SHOULD SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIES
THINGS OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE GREATER ATMOSPHERIC
PUSH TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHERE A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY)...
DRIER AIR LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY ON A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL EXIST. THE MAV AND MET POPS LOOK A BIT LOW ON TUESDAY
GIVEN MODEL PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND DEPICT 20
PERCENT FAR NORTH AND 30 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT TOWARD THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. EVEN DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING
THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AS PW`S
DROP TO AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND AROUND
1.2 INCHES FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
EACH DAY...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING INTO THE IN THE 60S OVER THE
NATURE COAST...AND LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT KLAL AND THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 14Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF WATERS WILL SUPPORT A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. A STRONGER REINFORCING
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 72 88 72 / 50 20 30 10
FMY 88 74 90 73 / 50 20 30 10
GIF 87 73 90 71 / 50 20 30 10
SRQ 86 72 89 71 / 50 20 30 10
BKV 86 67 89 63 / 50 20 20 10
SPG 86 75 88 75 / 50 20 30 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCMICHAEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

936 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MORNING`S
LOW HAVE PRETTY MUCH EXITED INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, WHERE THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. UNTIL THEN, CAN`T RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SFC LOW OVER NRN ME AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND RUC ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FOR
THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/KHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

620 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS ALL BUT MOVED EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. RADAR INDICATES A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGHER PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SWRN
MAINE...AND WILL BUILD INTO ERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND RUC ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE CAROLINA`S WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SRN
GULF OF MAINE WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:

SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORTON
MARINE...NORTON/KHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

858 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE....BUILIDNG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO DROP THE FREEZE WARNING.

PER RECENT SATELLITE DATA...AND RAP AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR TODAY.
DUE TO THE CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE LIKEWISE
MADE SMALL DECREASES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV-MD RIDGES LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
OVR THE UPR OH REGION AND DVLP ANOTHE COLD NIGHT. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR WITH FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES RESULTING.

NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SOME COUNTIES WILL ALREADY HAVE HAD
A FREEZE AND AT THIS POINT IN OCTOBER NO GREAT SURPRISE IS IN
STORE. SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS REGION. WILL DECIDE IF
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AFTER FULLY ASSESSING
IF AND WHERE THE GROWING SEASON MAY STILL BE CONTINUING.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH TUESAY.
BY WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
AND POSSIBLY SPAWN SOME SHOWERS ALTHOUGH TIME WL BE INSUFFICIENT
FOR BNDRY LYR MSTR RTN. CHANCE POPS WL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE SREF MEANS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...AND THE PRIMARY REASON FOR KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST IS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE INFLUENCE.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS. 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF. THIS WOULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD COME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THE REST OF TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTHEAST
THROUGH VIRGINIA.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 KTS.

WITH DECREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SHOULD BE DECENT NOCTURNAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A STRONG SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD INDUCE RIVER VALLEY
FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT NEARBY TAF SITES WHERE SO FAR MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED AFTER 08Z.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

816 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
MAY SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROMOTE COOL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER RECENT SATELLITE DATA...AND RAP AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR TODAY.
DUE TO THE CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE LIKEWISE
MADE SMALL DECREASES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT TO DISCONTINUE FREEZE WARNING AT 9 AM...AS BY THEN MOST OF
THE FREEZE IMPACTS WOULD HAVE OCCURRED.

HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV-MD RIDGES LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS
THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEMS SHIFTS EAST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ACROSS REGION FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND
ALLOW FOR SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AS AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS IN DOUBT
AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD COME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA...EXPECT REMAINING IFR FOG
TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z. VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF TODAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH VIRGINIA.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

727 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

THE GALES OF NOVEMBER HAVE STARTED IN OCTOBER. AFTER A FAIRLY QUITE
PERIOD...WE ARE BACK TO GALES OR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF GALES
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURROUNDING UPPER MI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ANY LLWS TO END BY LATE MRNG AS
SFC WINDS TURN GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTN
AT SAW...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARPEST. DESPITE INCRSG MID/
HI CLDS...ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE LLVLS WL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS EVEN IF SOME -SHRA ARRIVE AT CMX/IWD LATER IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW. THESE -SHRA ARE LESS LIKELY
AT SAW AS MAIN AREA OF FORCING TNGT WL TEND TO DRIFT TO THE NE. THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR LATER TNGT WL END ANY -SHRA AND MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WL ALSO DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT TO THE E.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.

GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221.

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07/KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

916 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED BAND OF RAINFALL HAS READILY FORMED ON
A LINE FROM ABOUT LEWISTOWN TO ROUNDUP AND LAME DEER THIS MORNING.
WE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL /80 TO 90 PERCENT/ RANGE IN
THOSE AREAS FOR THE MORNING...AND EVEN EXTENDED THEM SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BROADUS AREA. THAT IS BASED ON STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE 12
AND 13 UTC RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 18 UTC WHEN FORCING
FROM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER WEAKENS. THE SREF RUNS
FROM 03 AND 09 UTC PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE WITH POPS FALLING
OFF AFTER 18 UTC BEFORE A SECOND ROUND OF FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN THIS
FIRST BATCH OF FORCING. THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WILL FEED OFF OF A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE THANKS TO
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND IT WILL BE IN BETTER PROXIMITY
TO BILLINGS TO GIVE THE CITY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. THUS...THOUGH
WE DID INCREASE POPS IN BILLINGS TO 40 PERCENT BEFORE 21 UTC BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS /WHICH SUGGEST THERE WILL BE JUST A
BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE CITY THIS MORNING/...WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE
LIKELY POPS FOR BILLINGS RELEGATED TO THE POST-21 UTC TIME SO THAT
WE CAN FOCUS ON THE SECOND EVENT THERE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
LIKE THE RAP AND HRRR PICK UP ON THE STRONG GRADIENT IN RAIN WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE VERY NEAR BILLINGS THIS MORNING...AND THEY KEEP
MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE CITY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.

FINALLY...WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT IN FORECAST HIGHS WITH
THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD SHIELD TODAY. WE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY RISK FOR
SOME TEMPERATURE BUSTS TODAY. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN ZONAL ON FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION ON MONDAY. BROAD-BRUSHED LOW POPS
DURING THIS TIME. BRS

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH MODERATE GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BRS/SCHULTZ/CHURCH

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 035/049 039/061 036/050 037/063 042/064 046/064
6/R 63/O 00/U 12/W 11/U 11/U 12/W
LVM 057 029/051 033/060 030/052 033/060 037/058 039/060
3/R 62/S 01/U 12/W 11/U 11/U 22/W
HDN 055 037/050 035/065 035/053 035/064 041/065 045/066
8/R 63/O 00/U 12/W 01/U 10/U 12/W
MLS 055 033/046 034/062 036/048 036/061 041/063 046/063
6/R 31/B 00/U 22/W 01/U 10/U 12/W
4BQ 055 035/046 032/064 036/050 035/062 041/063 045/064
9/R 53/O 00/U 11/B 01/U 10/U 11/B
BHK 051 031/043 031/060 034/047 032/059 039/061 043/062
4/R 31/B 00/U 11/B 01/U 00/U 11/B
SHR 055 031/047 033/062 034/052 036/060 041/063 042/062
3/R 63/O 00/U 12/W 01/U 11/U 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

747 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

THURSDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP ACROSS WNY WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE MAY EVEN HAVE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BACKING FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH RESIDUAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THOUGH
LAKE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OFF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE TIME BEING...LAKE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND FOCUS TOWARD THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 15Z. THE LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS SHOULD END BY
MID DAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON....LEAVING VFR CIGS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ007-008-011>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1028 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK POPS FOR ONGOING RADAR TRENDS AND TO
LOWER HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RADAR LOOP
SHOWS THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE RED LAKE
FALLS/THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA WITH SOME TRAILING LIGHT PRECIP
EXTENDING DOWN WEST OF FARGO. RAP HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY WELL WITH
THIS PRECIP AND FOLLOWED IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADJUSTED
POPS UP TO LIKELY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHTLY LESSER PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PRECIP IS
LIGHTER AND COVERAGE IS LESS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION TO THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN. LOWERED HIGHS A TINY BIT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THICKER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM WARMING QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF MAINLY VFR TO SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT NEAR DVL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH AND LOWER CIGS HERE NEAR THE SFC LOW
CENTER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

SHORT TERM...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY INTO TUE.

FOR TODAY...STRONG LIFTING PER OMEGA/ISENTROPIC FIELDS WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE
BEST FORCING AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN 1/3
OF THE REGION. EXPECT ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME AREAS
IN THE NORTH GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE SW...AROUND 60 AND MUCH COOLER IN THE
NORTH NEAR PRECIP AND CLOUDS ALL DAY. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30KT TO MIX EFFICIENTLY. SOME AREAS
NEAR THE DVL BASIN COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING FOR THE DAY CREW
TO MONITOR.

TONIGHT...EXPECT A WRAPAROUND DEFORMATION TROUGH AXIS TO ROTATE
INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH SOME RAIN INITIALLY...MIXING
WITH SNOW AFTER 06Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THOUGH WITH
TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT A COLD DAY WITH MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IN
THE MORNING AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS AROUND
40 NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH WITH A COLD LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON. IF
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CAN ADVECT INTO REGION...THEN IT MAY
EVEN REMAIN A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
COULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.

FOR WED...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP BEGINNING
AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND CHANGING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND BE COLDEST
IN THE NORTH AND WARMEST SOUTH...AND HINGE LARGELY ON TIMING OF
PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. KEPT
THE S CHC POPS IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
WAVE IN THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE 500MB FLOW IN TRANSITION
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESSES DEVELOPING THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE DESSERT SW AND BY FRIDAY
DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF ITS PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY REACHING THE S RRV BY
SATURDAY. KEPT CHC POPS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS RAIN MAYBE
LIKELY IN THE S. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE EXPECTED HIGHS ON
THURSDAY OF MID 40S TO MID 50S...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MID
OCTOBER.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

828 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HAVE CANCELED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. CLOUD COVER PRETTY MUCH
THREW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING MACHINE AND
KEPT US CHILLY BUT FROST/FREEZE FREE IN MOST AREAS.

MEANWHILE NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGES SPREADING CLOUDS
TO THE NE INTO THE REGION. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR INTO THE
FCST AREA THE RAIN WILL SPREAD LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN
FROM JUST SOUTH OF STATE COLLEGE EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BY NIGHTFALL. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS A BIT AS LATER
GUIDANCE CREEPS IN...BUT CURRENT PRECIP PICTURE LOOKS REASONABLE
SO FAR.

LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL TODAY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM 50-55F.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO NR 90 PCT ACROSS LANCASTER CO THIS
EVENING...WHEN WAVE MAKES CLOSEST PASS TO PA. MDL DATA INDICATING
BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG 8-7H FGEN FORCING BTWN 00Z-06Z ACROSS
THIS AREA AND A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF YIELDS
TOTALS OF BTWN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF A
KILLING FREEZE. MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM SATL IMAGERY BOTH SUPPORT A
SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE MOISTURE WITH CLEARING SKIES LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. SFC RIDGE OVR THE AREA AND
PLACEMENT OF GEFS NEGATIVE PWAT/8H TEMP ANOMALIES TARGET THE NW
MTNS FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS. SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE...BUT WILL START WITH A WATCH AND LET DAY SHIFT
DECIDE WHETHER A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED. ACROSS THE RIDGE/VALLEY
REGION...HAVE ISSUED FROST ADV FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE L/M
30S.

SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR SHOULD PRODUCE MSUNNY SKIES AND LGT
WINDS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN PA...WHERE LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT-BKN
CU. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE
WITH AFTN READINGS MOSTLY IN THE U50S TO L60S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXCELLENT MDL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM AND ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVR
THE N MTNS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUNNY/DRY WX THURSDAY...WHEN ALL MDL DATA
TRACKS SFC RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFS DEVELOP WITH
NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FOR LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATE IT
WILL BE ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM...SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY A
LOW CHC OF SHRA ON FRIDAY.

FRI NITE COULD BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS HIGH PRES/LOW PWAT AIR
DRIFTS OVR THE STATE. HOWEVER...WARMER WX APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY QUITE
HIGH BY THAT TIME.

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION PRODUCING AN AREA OF
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AND INFRINGING ON PARTS OF CENTRAL
MTNS /KUNV-KIPT/ AS WELL EARLY THIS AM. THIS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO
SE COUNTIES /KMDT-KLNS/ BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. THOUGH SFC LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF PA...NORTHERN
EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD GETS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PERSISTS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z...BUT IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MVFR FOG
ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...IFR CIGS DEVELOPING SE WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS. MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
TUE...MVFR/IFR EARLY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING.
WED...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THU-FRI...VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034-035-041-042-045-046-049-050.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1013 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT AS TEMPS NOT
INCREASING NEAR AS FAST AS EXPECTED. WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK HAVE DECREASED MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FOR MOST AREAS. A BIT OF CLEARING IS NOTED RIGHT ALONG THE
COASTLINE HOWEVER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT FARTHER SOUTH.
SATELLITE TREND WOULD INDICATE IT TO ONE BE LIMITED
BREAKS...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE TOO SURPRISED IF AN AREA OF SCT CLOUDS
OPENED UP FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING COASTAL AREAS TO WARM
A BIT MORE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPADTED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHANGES.

MARINE...WITH WINDS STILL LINGERING AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND THE RUC MODEL INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CHOSEN TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SOUTHERN
OPEN WATER AREAS UNTIL 4PM. SEAS ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH THE 20
BUOY STILL REPORTING 7 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MVFR VSBY HAVE DVLPD THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE VCT AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL AVIATION
IMPACT AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE VCT AND CRP AREAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE
SAME FOR ALI BY MID MORNING AND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
LRD. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BECOME SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE VCT AREA...BUT THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP
THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT BUT
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF BR OUT OF THE TAF`S FOR NOW AS A STRATUS
DECK MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PCLDY THIS AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS S
TX. WEAK TO MOD NLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY BUT STILL GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AREA WIDE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO USHER HIGHER DEWPOINTS
INTO S TX THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER MN
TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A MIX OF STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS WAA TAKES PLACE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH...COULDN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE...KEPT SILENT
5-10 POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS MOVG S
ACROSS CENTRAL TX...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH S TX. THUS...NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP EITHER.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING
FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A MOD TO STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT CAUTION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BY THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO INCREASE AROUND START OF LONG TERM PERIOD.
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE STRATIFICATION OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER TUES NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORK THEIR WAY NNWRD. A FEW MAY CROSS
ONSHORE AND AFFECT COASTAL AREAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WED. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE. SBCAPES
INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...LI OF -5 TO -6 ARE EXPECTED...AND
MESOSCALE LOWLEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES WOULD BE FOCUS OF INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE
LACKING WITH NAM/CMC INDICATING INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES...ECMWF
A LITTLE MORE MOIST...AND GFS RATHER BULLISH ON PRECIP WED. FOR NOW
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA FOR DAYTIME
WED. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO WANE. REPEAT SCENARIO EXPECTED
EACH DAY DURING REST OF WORK WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PARKED OVER
WEST GULF PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING S TX.
RIDGING FLATTENS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF SW CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS PROG TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDIEST DAYS CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND
WHEN BEST MIXING OF STRONGEST LLJ IS PROG TO OCCUR. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF WORK WEEK WHEN RIDGING
IS THE STRONGEST. TEMPS SHOULD THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE FLATTENS. MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
TUESDAY NIGHT THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA OCCURS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE EXTENDED IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 65 87 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 71 62 85 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 72 66 90 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 72 64 87 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 72 67 82 75 88 / 10 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 70 62 87 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 74 66 87 74 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 72 69 83 76 87 / 10 10 10 20 20

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

PZ/83...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

955 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPADTED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHANGES.

.MARINE...WITH WINDS STILL LINGERING AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND THE RUC MODEL INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CHOSEN TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SOUTHERN
OPEN WATER AREAS UNTIL 4PM. SEAS ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH THE 20
BUOY STILL REPORTING 7 FEET.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 65 87 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 73 62 85 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 74 66 90 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 74 64 87 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 74 67 82 75 88 / 10 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 72 62 87 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 66 87 74 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 69 83 76 87 / 10 10 10 20 20

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
SC/70...LONG TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

155 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY AND IS
CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DECENT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE CAN
BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SPREADING OVER MS/AL/NORTHERN GA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST/TROPICAL PROFILE
STILL IN PLACE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE TO THE EAST OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH A PW OF AROUND 2".

AT THE SURFACE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED FROM
NEAR THE GA COAST WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND THEN
OUT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE
FRONT IS STILL SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CROSS CITY AND PERRY. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES THE MOIST
TROPICAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR ZONES FROM A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FILTERING DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
AL/GA.

WEAK DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC LIFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORCE SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WATERS
TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH
THE SYNOPTIC FORCING INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND COMBINE WITH MORE DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION TO RESULT IN A
SCATTERING OF STORMS FOR ALL ZONES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANOTHER KICK SOUTHWARD. ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS SOUTHWARD SURGE SHOULD SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EVENING BEFORE A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOSS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING ALL HELP TO DRIES THINGS OUT
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE GREATER ATMOSPHERIC PUSH
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...AND SOMEWHAT WARMER READINGS TOWARD
THE PINELLAS COUNTY/SUNCOAST BEACHES.

TUESDAY...THE INITIAL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE WITH THE MOST HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION EXISTING TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE MID-LEVEL
THETA-E VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 320K. HAVE GONE WITH 10-20% RAIN
CHANCES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND 20-30% POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR
THESE SOUTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF DRIER AIR WILL NOT BE
AS GREAT...CONDITIONS ABOVE 500MB WILL BE QUITE HOSTILE RESULTING IN
ANY CONVECTION REMAINING SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND
CONVECTIVELY HOSTILE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND
FEEBLE IF ANY SEA-BREEZE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERALLY
DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH MID/UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO
REMAIN SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WED NIGHT SLIDES EAST
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF REGION THU-SAT AND THEN BEGINS
TO FLATTENS SUN. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK TO OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI...RIDGING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF. THIS HIGH IS
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
10 PERCENT OR LESS...AND WARM. LOWS WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE THE HIGHS WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE
E-NE TO EASTERLY AND ROBUST AT TIMES ON GULF WATERS.

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LEFT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THEN IS REINFORCED BY AN EVEN STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND THEN INCREASE TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES ON TUESDAY... WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE ARRIVE OF DRIER
AIR...CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AND
RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BECOME VERY LOW OVER THE NATURE COAST ZONES ON TUESDAY AND THEN
BECOME LOW FOR ALL ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 88 72 88 / 30 20 10 0
FMY 72 90 74 90 / 20 30 20 10
GIF 70 90 69 90 / 30 20 10 10
SRQ 71 87 71 88 / 30 20 10 0
BKV 64 88 63 88 / 30 20 10 0
SPG 75 88 75 88 / 30 20 10 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
AVIATION...CARLISLE
LONG TERM...RUDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

147 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICAN...WITH BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER CANADA. ON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. W/NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE TRI STATE REGION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA.

THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
09-12Z...WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND IT. I HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
12-15Z...WITH ADVERTISED PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 8-11MB AND H85 WINDS
AROUND 14Z. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THESE WINDS CAN MIX
DOWN BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER OUR CWA. FOR
I INCREASED WINDS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BEST MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...SO ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...NAM/SREF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SNOW SEVERAL DAYS AGO THAT HAS ALREADY MELTED. BOTH
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TD VALUES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING...SO CONSIDERING THIS BIAS I WILL NOT BE INCLUDING FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS. A CUT OFF LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER TIMING MAY BE TOO FAST GIVEN PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE WITH CUT OFF SYSTEMS AND IT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND DEPART SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE
FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR WITH THE
SYSTEM SO NO WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HINT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED WITH THAT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS...THEN NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER BOTH TERMINALS AROUND
09Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS 27-30KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

129 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS IT HEADS
ON TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON OCT 8 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1229 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MAINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BECOME PRETTY
WIDESPREAD OVER ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST MAINE, SO CLOUD COVER
WAS INCREASED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY,
SO HAD TO INCREASE POPS AS WELL. OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AT BHB...BGR...HUL WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION TO A HIGH BROKEN DECK BY MID DAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU WED.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/KHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

438 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROF
DOMINATING ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT DROPPING SE INTO
THE ERN TROF. ONE IS HEADING INTO NRN MN WHILE A SECOND STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD WAVE IS OVER NW MN WITH SECONDARY CENTER
VCNTY OF LAKE WINNIPEG. IN REPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...12Z
RAOBS AT 850MB SHOW STRONG WAA INTO THE UPPER LAKES...CORRESPONDING
TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. LINGERING DRY
AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KMPX SOUNDING IS SO FAR LIMITING
SRN EXTENT OF PCPN.

SHORT TERM WILL BE ACTIVE WITH THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
AFFECTING THE AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS WITHIN
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE ERN FCST AREA
WHERE 925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 40-50KT BY NAM/GFS. LOW-LEVEL WIND
MAX WON`T BE PASSING DURING THE FAVORABLE PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR MIXING. HOWEVER...AREA OF DECENT PRES FALLS PASSING JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CERTAINLY BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR FOR STRONGER
WINDS. SO...CURRENT WIND ADVY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE DELTA/SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT WHICH ARE EXPOSED TO STRONG WINDS UP LAKE MICHIGAN.
SINCE S WINDS ARE A VERY FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER WINDS
AT GRAND MARAIS AND KERY...OPTED TO INCLUDE ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT
AND LUCE COUNTIES IN ADVY AS WELL. AS FOR PCPN...GIVEN RADAR/SFC OB
TRENDS AND MODEL INDICATED PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME -SHRA APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NRN UPPER MI...DESPITE CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NE...FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCE FOR THE ERN FCST AREA.

ON TUE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN. IN RESPONSE...A NICE SW-NE ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
FGEN CIRCULATION. BASED ON FGEN...THE ERN FCST SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR
PCPN...AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A GRADIENT FROM SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
OVER THE W TO HIGH LIKELY OVER THE E.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN FEATURES A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...FOLLOWED BY 12-24HRS OF LK
EFFECT PRECIPITATION AND THEN A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR ANOTHER
12-24HRS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE
FREQUENT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH...IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE ONLY
TIMES WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ARE DURING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ON
WED AFTN/EVENING AND FRIDAY.

FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE NE THROUGH ONTARIO AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WHILE SFC TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ERN CWA. NAM
DIFFERS FROM THE REST OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS IN DEVELOPING
ANOTHER LOW OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND LEFT
FRONT OF UPPER JET MOVE THROUGH. NOT SEEING THAT ON THE
LOCAL/NATIONAL HI-RES WRF RUNS...SO WILL DISREGARD AT THIS POINT.
PCPN SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE FORCING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND COLDER H850
TEMPS WILL SURGE SE...FALLING TO -7C BY 12Z WED. LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
STRONGEST INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS
FOR ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WRN U.P.
TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LLVL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PULL OUT
FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY WED AS WINDS BACK TO THE WSW IN RESPONSE
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES RIGHT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE WNW FLOW. WITH THE BEST WAA/FORCING
LIKELY OVER LK SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGHEST POPS
THERE AND ONLY SLIGHTS/CHANCES OVER THE SRN CWA. P-TYPE COULD BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PART OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH
LAYER...EXPECT THE PCPN TO START AS SNOW. BUT LOOKING AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE TOO MUCH WARM AIR TO WORK WITH. A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT FREEZING FROM 1-3KFT BEFORE WARMING A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. IN THE HEAVIER PCPN
AREAS...WOULD THINK THIS WOULD DEFINITELY STAY AS ALL SNOW...BUT
LIGHTER AREAS WOULD PROBABLY BE A MIX. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO THE LIKELY WEAKER INTENSITY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE LOW ON THURS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND BRINGS
AN END TO THE SHOWERS.

WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE LAST
DAY...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW NOW TRACKING OVER UPPER MI.
THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSED BY THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING THROUGH THE SW CONUS THIS WEEK AND EXITING INTO THE
PLAINS ON FRI NIGHT. LOCATION AND TIMING ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN AND IT/S ENS MEMBERS VARY
GREATLY FROM GFS/ECMWF. LOOKING AT 00Z GFS ENS MEMBERS...THE MEAN OF
THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WOULD GIVE A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WHICH THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS TRENDED
TOWARDS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION
THAN YESTERDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE SAT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD.
WARM AIR SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO THE PCPN
STAYING RAIN. COULD BE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SAT NIGHT...AS
SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO 0 TO -1C ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...ALTHOUGH MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

DESPITE DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE S. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MAY STILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF -SHRA AT KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING. -SHRA ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
AT KSAW AS BETTER FORCING TENDS TO LIFT NE WITH TIME. LOW-LEVEL JET
TRAVERSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THRU THE EVENING. SHOULD
SFC WINDS DECOUPLE TO SOME DEGREE THIS EVENING...LLWS WILL BE AN
ISSUE. SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE WILL
BRING A ROUND OF -SHRA TO KSAW. IT APPEARS KCMX/KIWD MAY BE JUST W OF
THE MAIN PCPN AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM NW MN AND HIGH
PRES TO THE E COMBINED WITH AREA OF PRES FALLS PASSING JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN S GALES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. COULD BE A FEW HRS LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45KT AT HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WIND SWITCH TO THE WSW ALONG WITH PRES RISE HEADING FOR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE AREA BTWN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW. WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 15-25KT TUE.

ACTIVE PERIOD ON LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER
THE EASTERN LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DECREASES WINDS BELOW 25KTS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
AGAIN PRODUCE WEST GUSTS TO 30-35KTS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON/SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

135 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

THE GALES OF NOVEMBER HAVE STARTED IN OCTOBER. AFTER A FAIRLY QUITE
PERIOD...WE ARE BACK TO GALES OR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF GALES
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURROUNDING UPPER MI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221.

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07/KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

638 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RUC AND NAM HIGH-RES RUNS PAINT A MUCH-CLOUDIER PICTURE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT THAN PREV RUNS DID. SRLY FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO
BRING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND AS FAR W AS
JST/FIG/BFD. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SET QUITE YET. MUCH DRY AIR
OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE COAST WILL
TRY TO BALANCE THIS POTENTIAL FLY IN THE FORECAST OINTMENT. WILL
BEND THE FCST MORE-CLOUDY IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST BUT HOLD ONTO
THE REST OF THE FCST DETAILS FOR THE TIME-BEING. CERTAINLY...IF
THE LOW CLOUDS DO REINVIGORATE...THE TEMPS WOULD NEED TO BE
BROUGHT UP AND THE FROST/FREEZE WORRIES WOULD JUST MELT AWAY
/BAD PUN/. WILL REVISIT THIS TREND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD BURN AWAY THROUGH THE
MORNING...AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE WEAK SUN
AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK OVER THE CLOUDS. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE SMALL...EARLY AND OVER THE FAR SE...OTHERWISE WE WILL BE DRYING
OUT COURTESY OF THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNSHINE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BUT IT WILL STAY COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN THE 50S. THIS IS ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCELLENT MDL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM AND ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVR
THE N MTNS.

WED NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUNNY/DRY WX THURSDAY...WHEN ALL MDL DATA
TRACKS SFC RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THU NIGHT MAY FEATURE FROST...FREEZE ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM NW PA...IF THE GRADIENT AND CLD COVER IS SLOW
TO INCREASE.

ANOTHER MOISTURE- STARVED COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY...WITH
FAIRLY LOW POPS.

FRI NITE COULD BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS HIGH PRES WITH LOW PWAT
AIR DRIFTS OVR THE STATE.

MODELS HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WARMER WX APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL PA...IS DISSIPATING DUE TO THE WEAK RIDGE THAT IS NOW
MOVING TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO BE WEAK AND REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF PA...NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVER MUCH OF THE SERN PORTION OF PA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS LIKELY FROM SEG SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
BROUGHT ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BY LATE EVENING. BFD HAS A
CHANCE...DUE TO BEING IN THE DRIEST AIR...TO AVOID ANY MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE...FROM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PROPAGATING TROUGH...FOR BFD TO SEE
REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

THU...VFR.

FRI...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

SAT...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-037.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025-026-033>035-041-042-045-046.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TROUGHING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. THE FIRST IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 998MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. DPVA
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT HAS SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z
MPX SOUNDING AS WELL AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 25-40
PERCENT RANGE HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRY DESPITE LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...NOTED BY
850MB TEMPS PER THE RAP THAT HAVE CLIMBED TO 4-6C AFTER STARTING OFF
AT 1-3C ACCORDING TO 12Z RAOBS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHING SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF NOTE...WHICH LOOKS QUITE POTENT IN WATER
VAPOR...IS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A 100-120 KT JET NEAR 250MB WAS
LOCATED ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE POTENT SHORTWAVE IN SASKATCHEWAN MODELS
SHOW DROPPING DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFYING AND
TURNING NEUTRAL TILT AS IT CROSSES MINNESOTA INTO FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
TONIGHT...IT HELPS TO SLOW DOWN THE CURRENT EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS. IN FACT...BY 12Z...THE FRONT MAY JUST
BE GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MN. AS SUCH...A MILD NIGHT COMPARED TO
WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN RECENTLY IS ON TAP TONIGHT...AIDED BY A
CONTINUING SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THEREFORE...STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE VERY
QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF THE SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESS. WHEN HEADING INTO
THE COLD SEASON...MOST PRECIPITATION FALLS POST-COLD FRONTAL BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR. IN THIS CASE...THE
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WHICH DOES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT ENDS
UP STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE CONFINED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MOSTLY LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
1/3 OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCES IN THE 20-40
RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN GETTING THE AIR SATURATED AND THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA. NOW THINGS ARE A LOT DIFFERENT ON TUESDAY. THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ON TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
DRAMATICALLY...CAUSED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOW A NICE FRONTOLYSIS/FRONTOGENESIS COUPLET WHICH YIELDS STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. SO ANTICIPATING THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
IN AND PUSHES THE FRONT EAST...SHOULD SEE A BAND OF RAIN BEHIND IT.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO GET RAIN NOW FOR TUESDAY...
THOUGH NORTHWEST SECTIONS SHOULD DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING HEADS EAST. WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN MOVING
THROUGH...A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS REQUIRED. PLUS...850MB TEMPS FALL
FROM 2-6C AT 12Z TO 0 TO -2C AT 00Z. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S AT BEST...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS MAY BE A
MORNING HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SIT
UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE
OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE
850MB TEMPS FURTHER DOWN...REACHING -4 TO -7C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE A LOW STRATUS DECK...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WISCONSIN. SO AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND A DECENT
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TO MUCH. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS STRATUS DECK WILL
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...BY 00Z THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE BREEZES WILL HELP
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 0 TO
-3C BY 00Z. PLENTY OF SUN AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
MIXING...BUT GIVEN THE COOL 850MB TEMPS...AT BEST HIGHS MAY REACH
THE MID 50S AND THAT IS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR COMES IN LATE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT
DROPPED DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO
HEAD TO THE EAST...VERSUS DIG DOWN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA LIKE
THE PAST COUPLE HAVE DONE. AS SUCH...ALL FORCING AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION WITH IT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO COME THROUGH. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED...WITH THE 08.12Z NAM THE SLOWEST NOT
SHOWING FULL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHILE THE 08.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGESTING MAINLY DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY GROUP AT THIS TIME AND CONSIDER THE NAM AN
OUTLIER. NO MATTER WHAT MODEL FOLLOWED...IN THE COLD FRONT
WAKE...YET ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...AFTER 850MB TEMPS WARM UP TO
A CONSENSUS 4-8C AT 12Z THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEY FALL BACK
DOWN TO 0 TO -4C. THIS COLD ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE FALL TO TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...LEANED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FROM THE
MAJORITY GROUP...YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POTENTIAL FOR MOST SUN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY

08.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST EACH OTHER AND PAST RUNS SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE HERE LATE
THIS WEEK. CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING...
MODELS PROG TO LIFT INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON SATURDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO AFTER WHAT WILL BE A DRY AND
COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS...EXPECT WARMING WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH EXPECTED COMBINATION
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER JET FORCING AND DPVA. SOME DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST ON SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS. THE 08.12Z
CANADIAN AND A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD THE MAJORITY OF
THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE PAST FEW DAYS OF EJECTING IT UP TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE LATTER GROUP TO
ALSO LIFT THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...FOR LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...OUR WHOLE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS PLENTIFUL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...NO FEAR OF SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE 0-3KM MUCAPE FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. FOR THE
FORECAST...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATTER GROUP...BUT EITHER
SCENARIO YIELDS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN NECESSARY DUE TO
THE EXPECTED MUCAPE. EXACT QPF AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE TREND OF THE SYSTEM NOW MORE THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN IF THE SYSTEM WAS GOING SLIGHTLY TO OUR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PATTERN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA APPEARS TO HAVE FAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE 08.12Z GFS AND 08.00Z ECMWF OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
WHICH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
LOT OF SPREAD...THOUGH...WITH SOME NOT HAVING THIS TROUGH AT ALL AND
ACTUALLY SHOWING A RIDGE. NEW 08.12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST WITH HINTS OF RIDGING COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY FORECAST. NET RESULT IS TO HAVE SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
FROM THE UPPER LOW...THEN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST LOOK CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PACIFIC
FLOW OF AIR.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1252 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. PLAN ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 18 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 28 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE 8 TO
12 KT RANGE AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. CLOUDS BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KRST BY 13Z WITH
CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER KLSE BY 14Z...WITH CLOUD BASES LOWING TO 2000 FT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
235 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP