Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/06/12


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1242 PM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 .UPDATE... && .SHORT TERM...STRATUS STILL SLOW TO ERODE ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR AND MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM AND CURRENT HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS LOOK A BIT TOO WARM AND LOWERED TEMPS MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012/ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S MOST AREAS. HAVE ENDED FREEZE WARNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH SOME ERRODING ALONG PALMER DIVIDE. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS THIS AM. OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...STRATUS HANGING ON A BIT LONGER THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE BKN-OVC AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH 17Z. BOTH HRRR AND RUC INDICATING STRATUS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AT THAT TIME. REST OF TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 40 TO 50 DEGREES COOLER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD AIRMASS DID NOT MAKE IT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE A MILD DAY TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THIS TROUGH NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW WEAK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LONG TERM...UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVEN AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON THE UNDER SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 6C ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS TO NEAR 0C IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR OUT NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MODELS SHOW THE LEFT EXIT QUAD OF A 110KT JET PASSING OVER NERN COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY WHICH PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD EITHER BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE... PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT..PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EAST OF THE MTNS AND ESPECIALLY OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING JET. HAVE INTRODUCED A WIDE SWATH OF 50 PCT POPS ACROSS WELD...MORGAN...LOGAN...PHILLIPS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. WE/RE TALKING ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. COULD JUST AS EASILY GONE WITH LIKELY POPS OUT THAT WAY...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP STILL REMAINS IN DOUBT. ON SATURDAY...SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS ARE BARELY ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGS IN AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS. MEANWHILE... AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD FEEL LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS GREAT PLAINS COLD AIR MASS. POPS ON THE WEST SLOPE NEAR ZERO FOR THE MOST PART. THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SEE PRECIP SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE JET AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LIFT ALSO SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE NAM IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS WASHINGTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS A COUPLE INCHES BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN FROM WYOMING. SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE COLD AIR FLUSHES OUT STARTING SUNDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILING HEIGHTS OF 3000 TO 5000 FEET WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF COLORADO WILL KEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS MAY HELP LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE MORNING. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 .UPDATE... && .SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S MOST AREAS. HAVE ENDED FREEZE WARNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH SOME ERRODING ALONG PALMER DIVIDE. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS THIS AM. OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. .AVIATION...STRATUS HANGING ON A BIT LONGER THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE BKN-OVC AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH 17Z. BOTH HRRR AND RUC INDICATING STRATUS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AT THAT TIME. REST OF TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 40 TO 50 DEGREES COOLER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD AIRMASS DID NOT MAKE IT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE A MILD DAY TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THIS TROUGH NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW WEAK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LONG TERM...UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVEN AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON THE UNDER SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 6C ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS TO NEAR 0C IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR OUT NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MODELS SHOW THE LEFT EXIT QUAD OF A 110KT JET PASSING OVER NERN COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY WHICH PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD EITHER BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE... PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT..PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EAST OF THE MTNS AND ESPECIALLY OUT ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING JET. HAVE INTRODUCED A WIDE SWATH OF 50 PCT POPS ACROSS WELD...MORGAN...LOGAN...PHILLIPS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. WE/RE TALKING ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. COULD JUST AS EASILY GONE WITH LIKELY POPS OUT THAT WAY...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP STILL REMAINS IN DOUBT. ON SATURDAY...SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS ARE BARELY ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGS IN AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS. MEANWHILE... AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD FEEL LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS GREAT PLAINS COLD AIR MASS. POPS ON THE WEST SLOPE NEAR ZERO FOR THE MOST PART. THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SEE PRECIP SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE JET AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LIFT ALSO SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE NAM IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS WASHINGTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS A COUPLE INCHES BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN FROM WYOMING. SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE COLD AIR FLUSHES OUT STARTING SUNDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILING HEIGHTS OF 3000 TO 5000 FEET WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF COLORADO WILL KEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS MAY HELP LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE MORNING. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....BAKER AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
445 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN A PERIOD OF CHILLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID WEEK AS AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE RGN...THE BAROCLINIC TROF WITH ATTENDANT SHRTWV ENERGY DEAMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEPER CYCLONIC SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRNT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END. EXPECTING THE BETTER RGN OF SHOWERS TO PREVAIL NEWD THRU CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS TRANSLATING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LINE OVER THE HUDSON VLY RGN...WRF MDL SOLNS SUGGEST A GRADUAL TURNING TO DUE EAST. WHILE NOT TOTALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS IT/LL BE INTERESTING THE OUTCOME OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES E OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS PER 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. WILL USHER LIKELY POPS...BUT ANTICIPATE THE STRENGTH OF THE LINE TO DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESSION /FOLLOWING THE 16Z HRRR CLOSELY/. SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR COUPLED WITH HIGH PRES SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND IMPROVE...YET ABUNDANT REMNANT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN. THOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WITH WEAK FLOW TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE RGN AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO OR AT THE DWPT /MINS AROUND THE MID 50S/. ANTICIPATING VSBYS DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEARING LIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY... FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF INTO THE LATE MORNING PD. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LYR SHOULD PREVAIL UP TO H85 INTO THE AFTN PD WHERE TEMPS RANGE FROM 10-12C. MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE UNDER LIGHT W/SWLY FLOW. FCST GUIDANCE IN CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE PD DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT... WILL KEEP THE PD DRY AS THE BETTER FORCING LIES ACROSS THE ERN GRT LKS RGN AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRES. W/SWLY FLOW PREVAILS USHERING A REBOUND OF SFC MOISTURE FROM DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...DWPTS INCREASING INTO AND AROUND THE LOW 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG INTO THE SAT MORNING PD /THE BETTER CHCS FOR FOG ALONG THE SRN SHORELINE OF NEW ENGLAND/. A MILD NGT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- UPR 50S /LOW 60S PSBL ALONG THE S COASTLINE/. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY BUT STILL WARM AND BREEZY COASTAL PLAIN * CHILLY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT * DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL PROMOTE BROAD DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RESULTING IN A CHILLY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS BAROCLINIC WAVE LIFTING NE OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GFS DEVELOPS THE STORM FURTHER OFFSHORE WHILE NAM/ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT... GT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SNE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS FALLING IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO W ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO SAT EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES AND OUTRUNS THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING. PARTIAL CLEARING MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. A WARM AND BREEZY DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT COOLER 60S NW ZONES. SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT... FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW MOVING UP THE COAST. PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORNING MAY BE DRY WITH RAIN BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. A CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...BUT MAY BRIEFLY REACH LOWER 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE FALLING AFTER ONSET OF RAIN. MONDAY... DRY AND COOL AS STORM PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO SUPPORTS MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S. MON NIGHT THROUGH THU... VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AND SOUTHEAST AK. DOWNSTREAM THIS RESULTS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOWS PROVIDING REINFORCING INTRUSIONS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND ECENS REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ALONG WITH AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW AND SURPRISINGLY THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THUS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AND POPS THIS PERIOD. THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... AFTER A CHILLY START MON NGT/TUE AM SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION BEGINS TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT...THEN NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK. FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE/AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOW WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEASURABLE PRECIP AND ITS TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD. FOR THU AND FRI BEHIND STRONG CLIPPER LOW...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT POST FRONTAL AIRMASS APPEARS COLDER THAN MON/S AIRMASS...WITH 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ADVERTISING 850 TEMPS FROM 0C TO TO -4C LATE LATE NEXT WEEK! && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO FRI MORN...GRADUALLY CLEARING W TO E THRU THE LATE OVRNGT. WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE -RA LIFT THRU THE RGN AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARDS FRI MORN FOR ERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSRA...BUT WATCHING CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER ERN PA. IN REGARDS TO VSBYS ANTICIPATING INTERMITTENT MVFR-IFR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY WITH RA/+RA. DIFFICULT TO TIME THRU THE DAY...BUT HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG /CHCS LESSER AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE W/. AFTER FRI MORN...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH CIGS LINGERING ALONG THE E SHORES. MORE TOWARDS FRI EVNG...MID-LVL CIGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW...REMAINING VFR. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS SPECIFICS REGARDING TO VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF LIFR TO MVFR THRU THE PD. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MUCH LIKE KBOS...CHALLENGES PERTAIN TO VSBYS. WILL BE WATCHING TSRA CLOSELY ACROSS ERN PA AND IF THIS WILL ADVECT TOWARDS EVNG INTO THE TERMINAL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREFRONTAL SW WIND GUSTS REACHING 25 KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. DIMINISHING WINDS SAT NIGHT SHIFTING TO NW. SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW. CURRENTLY FORECASTING SUB SCA CONDITIONS BUT COULD END UP WITH NE GUSTS REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS DEPENDING ON TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. TUESDAY... HIGH PRES LIKELY BEGINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPING SSW WINDS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY EXPECTED. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...KJC/NOCERA AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
443 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN PERIODIC UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 443 PM...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...AS A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CELLS. SBCAPE FROM SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 250-500 J/KG IN THIS LIMITED AREA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH CONNECTION TO THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PA/NY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD AND ALSO SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME...AND IS MORE OF A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY THAN THERMAL BOUNDARY. SO UNTIL THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT/EASTERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND HUMID CONDITIONS...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS UNTIL THE SHOWERS END. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...HOWEVER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOG WILL FORM AND WILL BE DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AS OPPOSED TO 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY SHOULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ONCE FOG/LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING. BETTER MIXING AND A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AROUND +12C AT 850MB IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND TO SUNSHINE AND MIXING AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WARMING INTO THE MID 70S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 70S SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE COOLER TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CLOUDS APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL DECAYING FRONT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST ON ITS HEELS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AND MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND COULD VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NOT REACHING AREAS SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MID TO UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE YESTERDAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SMALL AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST FORMATION DESPITE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION AS RATHER LARGE THERMAL PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. A LARGE RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH WILL RUN ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW EVOLVES. ONE PIECE OF POTENT ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES AND ENTER INTO THE CONFLUENCE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE MID WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNFOLDING PRECIP EVENT FOR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES REFLECT THAT A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT Q-VECTORS OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL INCREASE POPS BUT KEEP THOSE VALUES BELOW LIKELY THRESHOLDS AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DROP BACK AT OR BELOW 0C WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THE WHITE BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...A LARGE AND ELONGATED REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MODIFY THE THERMAL PROFILES WITH A WARMING TREND AS THOSE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH MANY ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT. SO WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE AS A RESULT OF LINGERING SHOWERS. THIS AFTERNOON...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AS WELL WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION AND CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...WITH KGFL AND KPSF SEEING FOG ONSET AS EARLY AS 05Z...WITH KALB AND KPOU A FEW HOURS LATER. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORNING MIXING QUICKLY ERODES ANY REMAINING LOW STRATUS/FOG BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 4-8 KTS. OUTLOOK... SAT-MON...VFR...MVFR/IFR POSS WITH CHC -SHRA. TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH WET/SOGGY GROUND CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN PERIODIC UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WHERE A FEW PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS OCCUR. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN RISES OF UP TO TWO FEET ON MAIN STEM RIVERS. A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVE BACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THIS TIME...AROUND ONE TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE MORE RAINFALL MOVES BACK IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...IAA/IRL FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN A PERIOD OF CHILLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID WEEK AS AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE RGN...THE BAROCLINIC TROF WITH ATTENDANT SHRTWV ENERGY DEAMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEPER CYCLONIC SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRNT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END. EXPECTING THE BETTER RGN OF SHOWERS TO PREVAIL NEWD THRU CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS TRANSLATING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LINE OVER THE HUDSON VLY RGN...WRF MDL SOLNS SUGGEST A GRADUAL TURNING TO DUE EAST. WHILE NOT TOTALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS IT/LL BE INTERESTING THE OUTCOME OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES E OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS PER 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. WILL USHER LIKELY POPS...BUT ANTICIPATE THE STRENGTH OF THE LINE TO DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESSION /FOLLOWING THE 16Z HRRR CLOSELY/. SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR COUPLED WITH HIGH PRES SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND IMPROVE...YET ABUNDANT REMNANT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN. THOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WITH WEAK FLOW TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE RGN AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO OR AT THE DWPT /MINS AROUND THE MID 50S/. ANTICIPATING VSBYS DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEARING LIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY... FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF INTO THE LATE MORNING PD. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LYR SHOULD PREVAIL UP TO H85 INTO THE AFTN PD WHERE TEMPS RANGE FROM 10-12C. MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE UNDER LIGHT W/SWLY FLOW. FCST GUIDANCE IN CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE PD DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT... WILL KEEP THE PD DRY AS THE BETTER FORCING LIES ACROSS THE ERN GRT LKS RGN AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRES. W/SWLY FLOW PREVAILS USHERING A REBOUND OF SFC MOISTURE FROM DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...DWPTS INCREASING INTO AND AROUND THE LOW 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG INTO THE SAT MORNING PD /THE BETTER CHCS FOR FOG ALONG THE SRN SHORELINE OF NEW ENGLAND/. A MILD NGT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- UPR 50S /LOW 60S PSBL ALONG THE S COASTLINE/. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY BUT STILL WARM AND BREEZY COASTAL PLAIN * CHILLY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT * DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL PROMOTE BROAD DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RESULTING IN A CHILLY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS BAROCLINIC WAVE LIFTING NE OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GFS DEVELOPS THE STORM FURTHER OFFSHORE WHILE NAM/ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT... GT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SNE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS FALLING IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO W ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO SAT EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES AND OUTRUNS THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING. PARTIAL CLEARING MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. A WARM AND BREEZY DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT COOLER 60S NW ZONES. SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT... FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW MOVING UP THE COAST. PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORNING MAY BE DRY WITH RAIN BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. A CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...BUT MAY BRIEFLY REACH LOWER 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE FALLING AFTER ONSET OF RAIN. MONDAY... DRY AND COOL AS STORM PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO SUPPORTS MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S. MON NIGHT THROUGH THU... VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AND SOUTHEAST AK. DOWNSTREAM THIS RESULTS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOWS PROVIDING REINFORCING INTRUSIONS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND ECENS REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ALONG WITH AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW AND SURPRISINGLY THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THUS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AND POPS THIS PERIOD. THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... AFTER A CHILLY START MON NGT/TUE AM SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION BEGINS TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT...THEN NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK. FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE/AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOW WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEASURABLE PRECIP AND ITS TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD. FOR THU AND FRI BEHIND STRONG CLIPPER LOW...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT POST FRONTAL AIRMASS APPEARS COLDER THAN MON/S AIRMASS...WITH 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ADVERTISING 850 TEMPS FROM 0C TO TO -4C LATE LATE NEXT WEEK! && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO FRI MORN...GRADUALLY CLEARING W TO E THRU THE LATE OVRNGT. WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE -RA LIFT THRU THE RGN AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARDS FRI MORN FOR ERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSRA...BUT WATCHING CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER ERN PA. IN REGARDS TO VSBYS ANTICIPATING INTERMITTENT MVFR-IFR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY WITH RA/+RA. DIFFICULT TO TIME THRU THE DAY...BUT HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG /CHCS LESSER AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE W/. AFTER FRI MORN...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH CIGS LINGERING ALONG THE E SHORES. MORE TOWARDS FRI EVNG...MID-LVL CIGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW...REMAINING VFR. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS SPECIFICS REGARDING TO VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF LIFR TO MVFR THRU THE PD. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MUCH LIKE KBOS...CHALLENGES PERTAIN TO VSBYS. WILL BE WATCHING TSRA CLOSELY ACROSS ERN PA AND IF THIS WILL ADVECT TOWARDS EVNG INTO THE TERMINAL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREFRONTAL SW WIND GUSTS REACHING 25 KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. DIMINISHING WINDS SAT NIGHT SHIFTING TO NW. SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW. CURRENTLY FORECASTING SUB SCA CONDITIONS BUT COULD END UP WITH NE GUSTS REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS DEPENDING ON TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW. TUESDAY... HIGH PRES LIKELY BEGINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPING SSW WINDS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY EXPECTED. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL LONG TERM...FRANK/NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD TIMING DEPICTION (EVEN IF THE EXTENT IS OVERDONE). GRIDS AND FCST HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME IN 2012 WE WILL HAVE TO TYPE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMOVE THE 70 PLUS DEW POINTS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST KEPT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS CLOUDS ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO NOSE UP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND, MAINLY FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S IN OUR REGION. WITH THE LIGHT WIND AND THE RECENT RAIN AND HUMIDITY, SOME PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND +12C AT 850 HPA RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WEAK UPPER AND SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST DURING SATURDAY. AN ONGOING PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WILL BRING LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DURING SATURDAY. ORGANIZED PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TO OUR WEST...EARLY SATURDAY FALLS APART AS THE FRONT SEEMS TO OUTRUN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHC RANGE FOR SAT AT THIS POINT. THE BETTER CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR SAT THEN CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. SAT WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR AWHILE WITH SOME MID 70S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID 60S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S OVER THE DELMARVA AREA. THESE READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A BATCH OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT SUN. LOW LIKELY POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. QPF COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS MODERATING BY WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD OF JUST PATCHY...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE THEN ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. CHC POPS WERE INSERTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AT OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE SKY CONTINUES TO CLEAR. THE WIND SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT, A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. IF THE WIND FAVORS ANY DIRECTION, IT WILL BE THE WEST. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KILG AND KMIV. FOR KPNE, KPHL AND KACY WHICH TEND TO BE LESS AFFECTED BY RADIATION FOG, WE HAVE INCLUDED NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. SUN-SUN NIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR AT TIMES. MON-TUE...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD OUTLOOK... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...O`GIGI/IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...IOVINO MARINE...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1014 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO ROUGHLY THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER BY 10 AM...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING OFF BEHIND IT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PLACES IT NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY NOON AND APPROACHING THE I-57 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH IT NEAR I-55 INSTEAD. ALL THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POST-FRONTAL SO FAR...AND EXTENDED FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EARLIER FORECAST FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR... WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z... SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AWIPS TIME-OF- ARRIVAL TOOL BRINGS IT INTO KPIA AROUND 1845Z AND KBMI AROUND 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT THESE SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE LINE IS SOMEWHAT BROKEN. ADDITIONAL RAIN CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH A BAND OF RAIN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS FAVOR THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR AS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY IT...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06-12Z AND PERSISTING INTO MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND...AND HAVE ADDED CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1200 FEET...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. GEELHART && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 234 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY BEING EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 06Z/1AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING EAST OF I-55...HOWEVER THESE WILL PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY 12Z/7AM. AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING. VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK E/NE TODAY...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PLACING IT ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS A DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE LINE DURING THE EVENING...AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WAVE...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES GREATLY OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING FURTHER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED THIS POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL FURTHER NORTHWARD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE GREATEST NORTHWARD TREND. WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT NAM IN THE SHORT-TERM...WHICH DEVELOPS RAIN ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY...AS FRONT MAKES ONLY GRADUAL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700MB...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE. WITH RAIN AND COOL N/NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. AS UPPER WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...FRONT WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72 DURING THE EVENING...THEN JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE CHAMPAIGN AREA WESTWARD TO JACKSONVILLE...WHERE AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH WILL BE COMMON. THE LIGHTEST RAINFALL OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL OCCUR FURTHER NORTH FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION CONCERNING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIFT PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SE KILX CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW KEEP THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z 4 OCT ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE E/SE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. MAIN STORY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS...AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-55. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AFTER THAT...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING THE 6 TO 8C RANGE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY TUESDAY. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA...FOLLOWED BY COOL/DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. BARNES && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1015 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1014 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO ROUGHLY THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER BY 10 AM...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING OFF BEHIND IT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PLACES IT NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY NOON AND APPROACHING THE I-57 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH IT NEAR I-55 INSTEAD. ALL THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POST-FRONTAL SO FAR...AND EXTENDED FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EARLIER FORECAST FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR... WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL AIRPORTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/7 AM FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEEPENING 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN IA AND NW MO WILL TRACK SE TO THE IL RIVER NEAR PIA BY 21Z/4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND TO DEC AND CMI AROUND SUNSET BETWEEN 00Z-01Z. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 7K FT TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS IL LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SSW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO BECOME BREEZY SW AFTER 15Z/10 AM TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 22-27 KTS BY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO PIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR I-55 FOR BMI/SPI BY SUNSET AND TO DEC AND CMI EARLY THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCTS AT PIA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS LATE TODAY AND VCSH REMAINDER OF CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. SW WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DIMINISH TO 8-14 KTS THIS EVENING AND NNW 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT TO HAVE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL DURING OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ABOVE 5 MILES/3K FT. KH && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 234 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY BEING EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 06Z/1AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING EAST OF I-55...HOWEVER THESE WILL PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY 12Z/7AM. AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING. VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK E/NE TODAY...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PLACING IT ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS A DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE LINE DURING THE EVENING...AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WAVE...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES GREATLY OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING FURTHER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED THIS POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL FURTHER NORTHWARD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE GREATEST NORTHWARD TREND. WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT NAM IN THE SHORT-TERM...WHICH DEVELOPS RAIN ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY...AS FRONT MAKES ONLY GRADUAL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700MB...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE. WITH RAIN AND COOL N/NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. AS UPPER WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...FRONT WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72 DURING THE EVENING...THEN JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE CHAMPAIGN AREA WESTWARD TO JACKSONVILLE...WHERE AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH WILL BE COMMON. THE LIGHTEST RAINFALL OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL OCCUR FURTHER NORTH FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION CONCERNING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIFT PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SE KILX CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW KEEP THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z 4 OCT ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE E/SE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. MAIN STORY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS...AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-55. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AFTER THAT...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING THE 6 TO 8C RANGE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY TUESDAY. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA...FOLLOWED BY COOL/DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. BARNES && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH REX BLOCK STILL IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC. THE NEAREST FEATURE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH W/NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST DESPITE WINDS AROUND 15-25KT AND MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK. THE MAJOR FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS ON THE COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN OVER THE PLAINS AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT THAT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. I HAVE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD IT WILL REALLY GET CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS AROUND 10KT ACROSS THE WEST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE. I AM HOLDING OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ANY PRODUCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S. ON SATURDAY LOCATIONS IN THE WEST MAY NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT A KILLING FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COINCIDING WITH A COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. NAM/SREF WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT SOME MESOSCALE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A H7 TROUGH OVER NE COLORADO...AND ARE PRODUCING HIGHER QPF VALUES AS A RESULT. IM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PHASE CHANGE WILL BE COMPLICATED...WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS IN THE WEST...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IF THE NAM/SREF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY. DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRUSHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AS SURFACE CANADIAN AIR IS PERIODICALLY REFRESHED AFTER EACH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS/LIFT DURING PERIOD WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AFTER A POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE THAT MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STARTING AROUND 0C SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND 10C BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE HOVERING IN THE 8-14C RANGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S MONDAY AND 40S FOR TUE/WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE STRATUS DECK AROUND 5000KFT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH TERMINALS NEAR HILL CITY AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. AT THE MOMENT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS...AND SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN VFR RANGE EVEN IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20KT AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...DLF AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH REX BLOCK STILL IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC. THE NEAREST FEATURE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH W/NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST DESPITE WINDS AROUND 15-25KT AND MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK. THE MAJOR FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS ON THE COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN OVER THE PLAINS AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT THAT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. I HAVE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD IT WILL REALLY GET CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS AROUND 10KT ACROSS THE WEST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE. I AM HOLDING OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ANY PRODUCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S. ON SATURDAY LOCATIONS IN THE WEST MAY NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT A KILLING FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COINCIDING WITH A COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. NAM/SREF WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT SOME MESOSCALE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A H7 TROUGH OVER NE COLORADO...AND ARE PRODUCING HIGHER QPF VALUES AS A RESULT. IM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PHASE CHANGE WILL BE COMPLICATED...WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS IN THE WEST...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IF THE NAM/SREF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY. DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRUSHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AS SURFACE CANADIAN AIR IS PERIODICALLY REFRESHED AFTER EACH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS/LIFT DURING PERIOD WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AFTER A POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE THAT MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STARTING AROUND 0C SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND 10C BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE HOVERING IN THE 8-14C RANGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S MONDAY AND 40S FOR TUE/WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT WED OCT 3 2012 VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KMCK WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY 06Z AND WITH COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT NO FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30KTS OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...DLF AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1006 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CANADIAN COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND BRING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT SOON TO REACH PIT. JUST SOME ISO SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG FRONT...AS MAIN RAIN SHIELD REMAINS BEHIND FRONT. BOUNDARY IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE RAIN AREA IS MOVING NE BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO TIMING OF POPS AND ALSO OVERNIGHT LOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUDGING FROM BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...COUPLED WITH RECENT WRF-NMM AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE MAIN ADIABATIC COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE CAN BE A THIN BAND OF SCATTERED PREFRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. CONCUR WITH HPC QPF THAT RAIN AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CAN BE UP TO 0.25 INCHES. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES...PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS...TO BECOME NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH LOWS TONIGHT DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. DUE TO SHALLOW BUT VIGOROUS VERTICAL MIXING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH DAYTIME SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MORE RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE ENSUING LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE EXITED COLD FRONT WILL AT MOST ONLY MAINLY AFFECT WV-MD MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES INTO MONDAY...AND MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. DUE TO THE COLDNESS OF THE SURFACE LAYER...ITS POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT THE GROUND WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY IMPACT. FORECASTED SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES USING BLEND OF GFS NAM AND ECMWF MOS...THAT SHOWED VALUES GENERALLY 7 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY PERHAPS 10 TO 13 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. ALTHOUGH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...FROST AND FREEZE PROSPECTS WILL DEPEND REMAINING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND...SO HELD OFF ON ANY CORRESPONDING ISSUANCES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM LAKE HURON...SKIRTING THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. THE LOW SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS READING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW SHOULD SWEEP A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE STRATUS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE VFR CEILINGS...EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS AS RAIN MOVES IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. DROPPED CIGS DOWN TO 1KFT AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO IFR AT THIS POINT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL PRIMARILY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT WIND SHIFT BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO FALL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS REMAINING AT A VFR LEVEL. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CANADIAN COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND BRING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EVE UPDATE. SOME TIMING CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND ADJUSTED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUDGING FROM BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...COUPLED WITH RECENT WRF-NMM AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE MAIN ADIABATIC COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE CAN BE A THIN BAND OF SCATTERED PREFRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. CONCUR WITH HPC QPF THAT RAIN AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CAN BE UP TO 0.25 INCHES. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES...PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS...TO BECOME NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH LOWS TONIGHT DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. DUE TO SHALLOW BUT VIGOROUS VERTICAL MIXING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH DAYTIME SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MORE RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE ENSUING LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE EXITED COLD FRONT WILL AT MOST ONLY MAINLY AFFECT WV-MD MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES INTO MONDAY...AND MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. DUE TO THE COLDNESS OF THE SURFACE LAYER...ITS POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT THE GROUND WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY IMPACT. FORECASTED SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES USING BLEND OF GFS NAM AND ECMWF MOS...THAT SHOWED VALUES GENERALLY 7 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY PERHAPS 10 TO 13 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. ALTHOUGH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...FROST AND FREEZE PROSPECTS WILL DEPEND REMAINING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND...SO HELD OFF ON ANY CORRESPONDING ISSUANCES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM LAKE HURON...SKIRTING THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. THE LOW SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS READING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW SHOULD SWEEP A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE STRATUS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE VFR CEILINGS...EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS AS RAIN MOVES IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. DROPPED CIGS DOWN TO 1KFT AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO IFR AT THIS POINT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL PRIMARILY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT WIND SHIFT BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO FALL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS REMAINING AT A VFR LEVEL. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
157 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL PA...MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH WITH THE HELP OF THE LIFTING LOW COULD HELP TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN RIDGES TONIGHT. A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE IN ADDITION TO THE LIFTING VORT MAX. NO FURTHER EXPANSION OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT FINALLY REACHES OHIO. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUD DECK AND PROVIDE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV...WHERE RESIDENCE TIME UNDER CLOUD DECK SHOULD KEEP THOSE LOCATIONS WARMER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BUT TIMING ISSUES IN HOW QUICKLY IT CROSSES THE REGION AND THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE HAVE CAUSED SOME INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE DECIDED TO PUSH BACK POPS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEW RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF AND HAVE ALSO CUT BACK POPS QUICKER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD THOUGH WILL BRING THEM BACK IN THE WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND WAVE. STILL...WITH THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY WEAK SO KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONSENSUS OF RECENT ECENS AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW LINGERING POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEVELOPED A LOW PRESSURE WAVE BECOMES ACROSS VIRGINIA. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS TOO LONG SUNDAY NIGHT... THE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE. EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL THEN PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE REGARDING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE VALUES NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OBS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MDL TRENDS INDICATE THE MID LVL CLD BLANKET OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY SHOULD CONT TO FADE AS THE NGT PROGRESSES...LEAVING A THINNING CS CANOPY TO ACCOMPANY THE APPRCH OF A WEAKENING SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE MIDWEST. THIS TREND WOULD FAVOR AN INCRS IN RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL AS IS EVIDENT IN SOME OF THE MIDNGT OBS ARND THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE EVE UPR AIR PLOT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH NAM AND RAP MDL SNDINGS INDICATE A NEGATIVE HYDROLAPSE AND HIGH CONDENDSATION PRES DEFICITS IN THE BNDRY LYR. HENCE...IFR FOG WL NOT BE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR WL BE MENTIONED AT PORTS NEAREST THE WATER SOURCES AS PER AFOREMENTIONED OB-TRENDS...CROSSOVER TEMPS...AND THE NAM SFC COND PRES PROGNOSIS. AT ANY RATE...GENL VFR WL QUICKLY DOMINATE AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT THE MIDWRN SHRTWV WL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND INCRS WIND SPEED OVR THE UPR OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS DRY PASSAGE. LOOK FOR GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTN. .OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICITION IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY NGT/EARLY SATURDAY CDFNT. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS STRATOCU AND SHRA ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACRS TH GREAT LAKES AND OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTN WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF KINL. COLD FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN ISOLD SHRA FORM THIS AFTN WITH EVEN TSRA. MAIN AREA WAS ON KEWEENAW BUT JUST WITHIN LAST 1 HR ANOTHER LINE OF SHRA HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTHEAST CWA. DEEP DRYING WRAPPING IN ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF SHRA/TSRA KICKED ON WITHIN THE BETTER LR/S AND ALSO ON LEADING EDGE OF H85 FRONTOGENESIS. OTHERWISE ONCE PESKY FOG HELPED OUT BY MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN BURNED OFF...IT HAS BECOME NICE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. THAT WILL BE LAST 70 DEGREES FOR POSSIBLY THIS FALL THOUGH AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING IN ONCE THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA MOVES TO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND COLDER AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION. THROUGH FRIDAY...DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG SNOW ACCUMS. WIDESPREAD SNOW ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IN MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND SFC LOW NEVER REALLY MAKES IT INTO CWA...INSTEAD LIFTING MORE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. INSTEAD...NORTHWEST CWA GRADUALLY GETS INTO A REGIME WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BLO 10KFT AND WSW BLYR WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER ARE WARMER THAN -8C UNTIL THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. UPSHOT IS THAT INITIAL PRECIP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR NW CWA WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERHAPS REALLY SMALL SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT. AFTER EARLY EVENING POPS EAST...RESTRICTED POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT/CYCLONIC FLOW MOISTURE TO KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS REST OF AREA STAYS IN UNFAVORABLE WSW WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS. WINDS IN BLYR LATE TONIGHT PUSH TOWARD 30 MPH SO EXPECT WINDS NW CWA TO INCREASE LATE. SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OVER REST OF CWA. SKIES MAY EVEN CLEAR OUT SOME IN THE CNTRL AND EAST OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME. A RATHER MISERABLE DAY IS IN STORE FOR KEWEENAW ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING DEPTH TO MOISTURE WITH MOISTURE PUSHING COLDER THAN -10C BY AFTN SO SHOULD SEE MORE AND MORE SNOW MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. BLYR TEMPS REMAIN WARM IN THE UPR 30S AND LOWER 40S...SO EVEN IF PRECIP CHANGES TO MOSTLY SNOW DURING THE DAY /WOULD OCCUR BASED ON WBZERO HEIGHTS FALLING WELL BLO 1000 FT AGL/ LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW AS ONLY PTYPE WILL BE ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET MOST OTHER AREAS ON FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH A BIT BREEZY. BY FAR...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE KEWEENAW WITH FAVORED WESTERLY WINDS. MIXED LAYER WINDS EASILY TOP OUT OVER 35 KTS AND TOP OF MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS PUSHING WELL OVER 40 KTS. WINDS ARE ALSO STRONG ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON. FAVORED WEST WIND DIRECTION AND SUCH STRONG WINDS IN MIXED LAYER IN FACE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS FREQUENT GUSTS ON FRIDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA REACHING WIND ADVY LEVEL /39 KT OR 45 MPH/. WIND ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR KEWEENAW. FOR THOSE OTHER AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR ADVY LEVEL WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE NOT AS FREQUENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE THOSE AREAS IN ADVY AT THIS TIME. BY MID-LATE AFTN ON FRIDAY...925MB-850MB WINDS VEER MORE WNW WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE OF CWA INTO CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL MOIST FLOW. EXPECT WX REGIME OVER KEWEENAW TO BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD HIGHER TERRAIN OF ALL WESTERN AND POSSIBLE NCNTRL CWA BY 21Z. TEMPS MAY ALSO TRY TO FALL OFF FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. AGAIN...LIKE THE KEWEENAW EVEN WITH MAINLY SNOW VERSUS RAIN...WARMER BLYR TEMPS AND MINIMAL STRONGER LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUM. BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE CWA WILL OCCUR MORE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS NOW ADDRESSED IN THE LONGER TERM DISCUSSION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST 00Z SAT. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. BASICALLY...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SINCE THIS IS AN EARLY SEASON SNOW...LOT OF THE TOOLS WILL NOT WORK USING THICKNESSES FOR DETERMINING SNOW AND PRETTY MUCH KEPT WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THERE WHICH IS SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AND EASTERN CWA. DID LOWER SNOW RATIOS THOUGH AS FEELING IS THAT THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL BE SMALL AND LOWER THAN A 10 TO 1 RATIO WILL WORK. THIS STILL GIVES ME 1-3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND LOWERED THE LAKE TEMPERATURES TO 10C TO 12C FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THINKING IS THE LAKE WILL START TO GET TURNED OVER AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FROM 12C TO 15C THAT IT IS NOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -6C BY 12Z SAT AND THAT IS ENOUGH LAKE EFFECT DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT. BY SUNDAY...WINDS SWITCH TO THE SW AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...THIS WILL PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN OFFSHORE OF THE U.P. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN 12Z MONDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT IS POISED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO WED. ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THU. IT LOOKS TO STAY COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. KEPT MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH NEXT COLD AIR WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRIFTS TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EARLY AT CMX BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW /IFR CONDITIONS/ DEVELOPING AT CMX LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY MVFR FLYING AT IWD AND SAW WITH MINIMAL LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT PRECIP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHER MAIN ISSUE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP AT CMX ON FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD EXCEED 40 KTS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEING LOCATED JUST NORTH NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-45KTS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...INCREASING TO 45KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SFC TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS AT TIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOWERING WINDS BELOW 25KTS. WINDS COME UP TO 30 KNOTS FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGING IN SOME COLDER AIR. GETS REAL CLOSE TO A GALE THEN WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ265-266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ263. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ248. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>245. GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ246-247. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221- 248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLA MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
355 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND IT WILL TURN COLDER. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 4OS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WISCONSIN HEADING TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS I WRITE THIS. BEYOND THAT THERE IS THE ISSUE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF JET ASSISTED LIFT AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT AT 3 PM WAS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS THIS LINE CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN I EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THAT LINE. AIDING THAT IS A SURGE OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 1000 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HRRR RUC IS DOING REASONABLY WELL WITH THE CONVECTION ON THE COLD FRONT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BASED ON OUR TIMING TOOL...THE TIMING IN THE HRRR RUC AND RELATED TOOLS I EXPECT A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO CROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS THE CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS 30 - 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THERE IS ALSO 40 TO 50 KNOTS AS CLOSE TO THE GROUND AS 5000 FT AGL AS THIS LINE MOVES CROSS THE CWA. SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THE RAIN FROM THAT WILL MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. IT COULD IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING EVEN SO. I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THAT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE DEEP COLD AIR ROTATES THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THAT WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THANKS TO A NORTH NORTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER I EXPECT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO BE CLOSE TO LAKE SHORE. EVEN SO THE AIR IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT THOSE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BUT SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND. COLD BE A FREEZE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST OF GRR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY... HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD BE BREAKING MUCH OF IT UP THROUGH THE DAY. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER GOOD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH MIXING REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WHICH COULD LESSEN THE IMPACTS. THE NEXT RAIN MAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD BE POCKETS OF STEADIER RAINS AS THIS FRONT LOOKS MUCH LIKE THIS EVENING/S FRONT. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT HOWEVER AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA SHOULD BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHILLY AIR WILL SLOWLY LOSE IT/S GRIP ON THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPS BELOW 0C MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO A SLIGHTLY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT FRONT...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICKER SHOT...WITH H8 TEMPS ALREADY WARMING BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH WESTERN MI THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH TAF SITE. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF VCTS TO ALL SITES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF MVFR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR...SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR LATE TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXPERIMENTAL GREAT LAKES WATER SPOUT FORECAST SHOWS THE BEST SHOT OF WATER SPOUTS AS BEING SATURDAY AS THE DEEPER COLD AIR MOVES IN. I PUT WATER SPOUTS IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THAT TIME. THE HRRR SUGGEST POSSIBLE NEAR GALE WINDS WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST OVER THE NEXT WEEK SO EVEN WITH THE RAINS LAST NIGHT I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ845>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WDM SHORT TERM...WDM LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...WDM MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
135 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 WE/LL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING AND SENDS THE TEMPERATURE FALLING. SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 904 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 I UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO TIME OUT THE RAIN MORE QUICKLY. I USED THE HRRR RUC TO HELP MY CAUSE (10Z VERSION). IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID DAY BASED ON SAT LOOPS AND MODEL RH DATA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL... THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MOST OF THE PCPN WAS NORTH OF I-96 BUT ANOTHER AREA WAS MOVING TOWARD LWR MI AND WAS OVER ERN IL. THESE AREAS OF PCPN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. BY LATE IN THE DAY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP. NCEP AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 23Z OVER ERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. 00Z MODELS SHOW A LITTLE STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KTS SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. MID LEVEL WINDS NEAR 50 KTS WILL PUSH THE LINE EWD QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CERTAINLY COOLER THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG DPVA. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF THE LAKE WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20 DEG C. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OF SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE SNOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. FEEL SUNDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT...AS THE MOISTURE WANES. STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THOUGH WITH DELTA T/S HOLDING AROUND 20 DEGREES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS A SURFACE RIDGE FLOATS THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE FLOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY. COLD AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE FALL...TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN IN THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH WESTERN MI THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH TAF SITE. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF VCTS TO ALL SITES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF MVFR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR...SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR LATE TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BOOST WAVES TO 5-7 FT NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 QPF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AREA RIVERS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ845>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...DUKE AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
903 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 WE/LL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING AND SENDS THE TEMPERATURE FALLING. SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 904 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 I UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO TIME OUT THE RAIN MORE QUICKLY. I USED THE HRRR RUC TO HELP MY CAUSE (10Z VERSION). IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID DAY BASED ON SAT LOOPS AND MODEL RH DATA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL... THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MOST OF THE PCPN WAS NORTH OF I-96 BUT ANOTHER AREA WAS MOVING TOWARD LWR MI AND WAS OVER ERN IL. THESE AREAS OF PCPN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. BY LATE IN THE DAY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP. NCEP AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 23Z OVER ERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. 00Z MODELS SHOW A LITTLE STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KTS SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. MID LEVEL WINDS NEAR 50 KTS WILL PUSH THE LINE EWD QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z. FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CERTAINLY COOLER THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG DPVA. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF THE LAKE WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20 DEG C. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OF SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE SNOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. FEEL SUNDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT...AS THE MOISTURE WANES. STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THOUGH WITH DELTA T/S HOLDING AROUND 20 DEGREES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS A SURFACE RIDGE FLOATS THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE FLOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY. COLD AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE FALL...TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN IN THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 RAIN IS LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST AT 12Z...AND THE RAIN/FOG SHOULD BE OVER BY 14Z AT THE TAF SITES. LOW CEILINGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT...WITH GRR THE ONLY SITE WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS. THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO BE GONE BY MID MORNING. THE REASON THE LOWER CLOUD AND RAIN/FOG ARE COMING TO A QUICK END IS THAT THE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED IT IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR AS SOUTHWESTERLY WARM WINDS DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z AND 05Z. THE STORMS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO AS LAKE MOISTURE HELPS THE DEVELOPMENT. VFR AFTER 05Z TONIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BOOST WAVES TO 5-7 FT NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 QPF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AREA RIVERS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...DUKE AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
901 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HOURLY FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO JUST SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. 01Z TEMP AT MONTICELLO AR WAS 75 WHILE IT WAS 55 AT LITTLE ROCK. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH IS RATHER SCATTERED RIGHT NOW...IS EITHER RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTORMS. THE RUC AND HRRR ARE BOTH INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POSTFRONTAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN NWRN ZONES. MOISTURE...OR THE LACK THEREOF...IS A BIG LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z KJAN RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF ONLY 0.62 INCHES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST PAST THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND REACHING THE JACKSON METRO AREA RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE. HOURLY FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS. /DL/ && .AVIATION...THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TAF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A SOLID WIND SHIFT AS WINDS BECOME NW/N...MVFR CEILINGS ( N SECTIONS)...AND SOME ISO/SCT SHRA ( N SECTIONS). AS FOR FRONTAL TIMING...GLH LOOKS TO SEE IT BY 05Z AND GLH BY 06Z. THAT IS A TAD FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHER SITES (JAN/GTR) WILL SEE THE FRONT CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SAY BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE E/SE AREAS WILL HAVE THE FROPA LATER IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NORTHERN SITES...ESP GLH/GWO...WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME SHRA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE CEILINGS...BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE OF THE VFR VARIETY AND OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE DAY SAT. /CME/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CAA WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE DELTA BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE PINE BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT COULD BRUSH MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED MOSTLY BY THE COOLER WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE DELTA...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PINE BELT SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL AS LOW AS POTENTIALLY COULD BE AS CLOUDS WILL HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. /28/ LONG TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY THE ENSEMBLES AND MOST LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE DELTA REGION...WHICH WILL BECOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO GMOS...MEX AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS GENERALLY TOO COOL DURING THE DAY AND TOO WARM AT NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT KEPT THE CURRENT COOLER FORECAST AS MODELS SEEMED TO BE A LITTLE WARM. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO A BLEND OF GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS DRY FOR MIDWEEK...BUT HAD HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY./17/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ DL/CME/28/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Short Term (Today through Saturday Night)... 08Z surface analysis shows well defined cold front has pushed into far NW MO. Earlier surface based convection has long since dissipated, with pockets of post frontal elevated convection having a better go at it between Omaha to north central KS. RAP soundings show that modest elevated instability (100-300 J/Kg CAPE) will overspread NE KS and NW MO toward daybreak, supporting scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Today: Precipitation won`t be the only issue to contend with as the temperature forecast will be equally, if not more challenging. High resolution models show that the frontal speed and cold advection will slow with time due to a combination of daytime mixing and a shift of post frontal precipitation toward the northeast. Southerly winds and weak moisture advection were providing a mild start across the warm sector, and so it seems likely that temperatures will quickly rebound to near yesterday`s maxes, with mid to upper 70s likely over mid Missouri under abundant sunshine. Across the front in far northwest Missouri, strong cold advection and cloud cover suggest that effective highs may be reached at 12Z with only a modest afternoon recovery in the wake of morning convection. It`s possible that my 60F highs here may be perhaps generous. In between these extrema, the forecast is even more nebulous as highs could be reached mid-late morning with temps steady or slowly falling in the afternoon depending on the offset between cold advection and daytime heating. With respect to POPs, the orientation of the frontal axis and elevated instability axis is reflected in keeping scattered shra/-tsra mainly north of a Kansas City to Kirksville axis for today. Coverage will be limited by weakening ascent and ambient dry mid level air, so 30-40 POPs look kosher. Tonight: The surface front should eventually fizzle just southeast of the CWA this evening as large scale height falls finally arrive from the northwest. The arrival of stronger mid level flow will help sharpen a deep layer thermal gradient, with model cross sections showing a classic strengthening of layered/tilted frontogenesis beneath the mid-upper jet cores. Condensation pressure deficits indicate a fairly rapid top-down saturation this evening along and south of a Kansas City-Kirksville line, with some convective instability present as well. Thus, expect a blossoming of an axis of showers embedded thunder between 00 and 06Z over the srn half of the CWA, or perhaps a resurgence of whatever lingers from the daytime hours. Have increased POPs to around 60 percent for areas south of the MO river and brought POPs back toward the northwest overnight. Temperatures will steadily fall via strong cold advection and evaporative cooling, leading to some very raw conditions where precipitation is ongoing. Friday: This process should continue through the daytime Friday with bands of mainly light rain persisting ahead of the large upper trough axis still to the north and west. Surface pressure rises will continue under moderate cold advection, leading to some pretty miserable conditions as temperatures struggle to break the 50 degree mark. Friday Night-Saturday: Layered frontogenesis should slowly shift south and east, allowing precipitation to gradually end from the northwest. Extensive cloudiness and perhaps even some drizzle will linger as the deepening longwave trough still remains well northwest of the area. Mid-high level RH values confirm this idea, and again temperatures will run some 20+ degrees below normal. Saturday Night: With the passage of the upper trough, skies should clear, coincident with the arrival of the surface ridge axis. Temperatures will likely plummet after midnight, with near certainty that the coldest night of the early autumn season is upon us. Widespread frost looks almost a given and some sheltered areas across NW Missouri could dip below freezing for an hour or two. Bookbinder Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)... Cool temperatures will still be prevailing as the end of the weekend arrives, though some moderation is in store for the work week. A pronounced trough will still be in control of the weather across the Plains, pushing a cold Canadian surface high through the Lower Missouri River Valley. The consensus amongst the medium range models is for the trough pushing this cold air to continue dominating the weather across the eastern half of the nation through the work week. However, with a series of shortwaves expected to drop into, and then move through this broader longwave feature, it wont be all cold air advection for next week. For Sunday, the center of the cold Canadian surface high will be sliding off to our east, allowing the first hints at a return flow to develop by late in the day. The return flow that will be in place by Monday should allow afternoon readings to jump back into the 60s, with that temperature range expected to persist through at least the middle of the work week. This temperature regime will also support overnight lows in the 40s, so any weekend frost issues are not expected to persist into the work week at this time. Otherwise, have continued to carry some silent slight chance POPs from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Several models advertise a shortwave rotating through the broader trough in that time period. Warm air advection on the back side of the exiting surface high, ahead of another weak frontal boundary, could squeeze some drops from the air. But, given the many questions on timing and moisture availability have opted to leave the POPs in the silent slight chance range. Otherwise, consensus model output inserted more POPs for Wednesday. These did not look reasonable given the surface high expected to be shifting through the Plains States during that period, so have yanked them out. Cutter && .AVIATION... For the 18Z TAFs...a cold front has moved through the terminals this morning veering winds to the north this afternoon. Gusty winds behind the front will subside over the next few hours. Showers and scattered thunderstorms have also developed behind the front this morning but have begun to diminish however...a few light showers will still be possible in the VC of the terminals over the next few hours as well. For this afternoon expect continued north winds around 7-10kts with bkn mid level clouds around 7-8kft. Tonight showers will develop southwest of the terminals and move northeastward into the MKC and MCI by 02Z-03Z and continue through 09Z...however no cig/vis restrictions are expected. Showers will shift south of the terminals by tomorrow morning with continued bkn mid level clouds. 73 && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Short Term (Today through Saturday Night)... 08Z surface analysis shows well defined cold front has pushed into far NW MO. Earlier surface based convection has long since dissipated, with pockets of post frontal elevated convection having a better go at it between Omaha to north central KS. RAP soundings show that modest elevated instability (100-300 J/Kg CAPE) will overspread NE KS and NW MO toward daybreak, supporting scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Today: Precipitation won`t be the only issue to contend with as the temperature forecast will be equally, if not more challenging. High resolution models show that the frontal speed and cold advection will slow with time due to a combination of daytime mixing and a shift of post frontal precipitation toward the northeast. Southerly winds and weak moisture advection were providing a mild start across the warm sector, and so it seems likely that temperatures will quickly rebound to near yesterday`s maxes, with mid to upper 70s likely over mid Missouri under abundant sunshine. Across the front in far northwest Missouri, strong cold advection and cloud cover suggest that effective highs may be reached at 12Z with only a modest afternoon recovery in the wake of morning convection. It`s possible that my 60F highs here may be perhaps generous. In between these extrema, the forecast is even more nebulous as highs could be reached mid-late morning with temps steady or slowly falling in the afternoon depending on the offset between cold advection and daytime heating. With respect to POPs, the orientation of the frontal axis and elevated instability axis is reflected in keeping scattered shra/-tsra mainly north of a Kansas City to Kirksville axis for today. Coverage will be limited by weakening ascent and ambient dry mid level air, so 30-40 POPs look kosher. Tonight: The surface front should eventually fizzle just southeast of the CWA this evening as large scale height falls finally arrive from the northwest. The arrival of stronger mid level flow will help sharpen a deep layer thermal gradient, with model cross sections showing a classic strengthening of layered/tilted frontogenesis beneath the mid-upper jet cores. Condensation pressure deficits indicate a fairly rapid top-down saturation this evening along and south of a Kansas City-Kirksville line, with some convective instability present as well. Thus, expect a blossoming of an axis of showers embedded thunder between 00 and 06Z over the srn half of the CWA, or perhaps a resurgence of whatever lingers from the daytime hours. Have increased POPs to around 60 percent for areas south of the MO river and brought POPs back toward the northwest overnight. Temperatures will steadily fall via strong cold advection and evaporative cooling, leading to some very raw conditions where precipitation is ongoing. Friday: This process should continue through the daytime Friday with bands of mainly light rain persisting ahead of the large upper trough axis still to the north and west. Surface pressure rises will continue under moderate cold advection, leading to some pretty miserable conditions as temperatures struggle to break the 50 degree mark. Friday Night-Saturday: Layered frontogenesis should slowly shift south and east, allowing precipitation to gradually end from the northwest. Extensive cloudiness and perhaps even some drizzle will linger as the deepening longwave trough still remains well northwest of the area. Mid-high level RH values confirm this idea, and again temperatures will run some 20+ degrees below normal. Saturday Night: With the passage of the upper trough, skies should clear, coincident with the arrival of the surface ridge axis. Temperatures will likely plummet after midnight, with near certainty that the coldest night of the early autumn season is upon us. Widespread frost looks almost a given and some sheltered areas across NW Missouri could dip below freezing for an hour or two. Bookbinder Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)... Cool temperatures will still be prevailing as the end of the weekend arrives, though some moderation is in store for the work week. A pronounced trough will still be in control of the weather across the Plains, pushing a cold Canadian surface high through the Lower Missouri River Valley. The consensus amongst the medium range models is for the trough pushing this cold air to continue dominating the weather across the eastern half of the nation through the work week. However, with a series of shortwaves expected to drop into, and then move through this broader longwave feature, it wont be all cold air advection for next week. For Sunday, the center of the cold Canadian surface high will be sliding off to our east, allowing the first hints at a return flow to develop by late in the day. The return flow that will be in place by Monday should allow afternoon readings to jump back into the 60s, with that temperature range expected to persist through at least the middle of the work week. This temperature regime will also support overnight lows in the 40s, so any weekend frost issues are not expected to persist into the work week at this time. Otherwise, have continued to carry some silent slight chance POPs from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Several models advertise a shortwave rotating through the broader trough in that time period. Warm air advection on the back side of the exiting surface high, ahead of another weak frontal boundary, could squeeze some drops from the air. But, given the many questions on timing and moisture availability have opted to leave the POPs in the silent slight chance range. Otherwise, consensus model output inserted more POPs for Wednesday. These did not look reasonable given the surface high expected to be shifting through the Plains States during that period, so have yanked them out. Cutter && .AVIATION... For the 12Z TAFs...cold front advancing across the Kansas-Missouri border line will likely be through all the terminals by the time this TAF cycle starts. This will leave, at times, a gusty north to northwest wind prevailing through the day. Gusty winds are expected to be worst in the morning hours just behind the front. Otherwise, cloud cover behind the advancing front is not generally expected to lower too much today owing to the dry boundary layer, but some showers are expected to develop from these high based clouds this afternoon and this evening, though little impairment to flying conditions is currently expected. Otherwise, late tonight winds will calm some as they veer to the northeast. Cutter && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... Short Term (Today through Saturday Night)... 08Z surface analysis shows well defined cold front has pushed into far NW MO. Earlier surface based convection has long since dissipated, with pockets of post frontal elevated convection having a better go at it between Omaha to north central KS. RAP soundings show that modest elevated instability (100-300 J/Kg CAPE) will overspread NE KS and NW MO toward daybreak, supporting scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Today: Precipitation won`t be the only issue to contend with as the temperature forecast will be equally, if not more challenging. High resolution models show that the frontal speed and cold advection will slow with time due to a combination of daytime mixing and a shift of post frontal precipitation toward the northeast. Southerly winds and weak moisture advection were providing a mild start across the warm sector, and so it seems likely that temperatures will quickly rebound to near yesterday`s maxes, with mid to upper 70s likely over mid Missouri under abundant sunshine. Across the front in far northwest Missouri, strong cold advection and cloud cover suggest that effective highs may be reached at 12Z with only a modest afternoon recovery in the wake of morning convection. It`s possible that my 60F highs here may be perhaps generous. In between these extrema, the forecast is even more nebulous as highs could be reached mid-late morning with temps steady or slowly falling in the afternoon depending on the offset between cold advection and daytime heating. With respect to POPs, the orientation of the frontal axis and elevated instability axis is reflected in keeping scattered shra/-tsra mainly north of a Kansas City to Kirksville axis for today. Converage will be limited by weakening ascent and ambient dry mid level air, so 30-40 POPs look kosher. Tonight: The surface front should eventually fizzle just southeast of the CWA this evening as large scale height falls finally arrive from the northwest. The arrival of stronger mid level flow will help sharpen a deep layer thermal gradient, with model cross sections showing a classic strengthening of layered/tilted frontogenesis beneath the mid-upper jet cores. Condensation pressure deficits indicate a fairly rapid top-down saturation this evening along and south of a Kansas City-Kirksville line, with some convective instability present as well. Thus, expect a blossoming of an axis of showers embedded thunder between 00 and 06Z over the srn half of the CWA, or perhaps a resurgence of whatever lingers from the daytime hours. Have increased POPs to around 60 percent for areas south of the MO river and brought POPs back toward the northwest overnight. Temperatures will steadily fall via strong cold advection and evaporative cooling, leading to some very raw conditions where precipitation is ongoing. Friday: This process should continue through the daytime Friday with bands of mainly light rain persisting ahead of the large upper trough axis still to the north and west. Surface pressure rises will continue under moderate cold advection, leading to some pretty miserable conditions as temperatures struggle to break the 50 degree mark. Friday Night-Saturday: Layered frontogenesis should slowly shift south and east, allowing precipitation to gradually end from the northwest. Extensive cloudiness and perhaps even some drizzle will linger as the deepening longwave trough still remains well northwest of the area. Mid-high level RH values confirm this idea, and again temperatures will run some 20+ degrees below normal. Saturday Night: With the passage of the upper trough, skies should clear, coincident with the arrival of the surface ridge axis. Temperatures will likely plummet after midnight, with near certainty that the coldest night of the early autumn season is upon us. Widespread frost looks almost a given and some sheltered areas across NW Missouri could dip below freezing for an hour or two. Bookbinder Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)... Cool temperatures will still be prevailing as the end of the weekend arrives, though some moderation is in store for the work week. A pronounced trough will still be in control of the weather across the Plains, pushing a cold Canadian surface high through the Lower Missouri River Valley. The consensus amongst the medium range models is for the trough pushing this cold air to continue dominating the weather across the eastern half of the nation through the work week. However, with a series of shortwaves expected to drop into, and then move through this broader longwave feature, it wont be all cold air advection for next week. For Sunday, the center of the cold Canadian surface high will be sliding off to our east, allowing the first hints at a return flow to develop by late in the day. The return flow that will be in place by Monday should allow afternoon readings to jump back into the 60s, with that temperature range expected to persist through at least the middle of the work week. This temperature regime will also support overnight lows in the 40s, so any weekend frost issues are not expected to persist into the work week at this time. Otherwise, have continued to carry some silent slight chance POPs from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Several models advertise a shortwave rotating through the broader trough in that time period. Warm air advection on the back side of the exiting surface high, ahead of another weak frontal boundary, could squeeze some drops from the air. But, given the many questions on timing and moisture availability have opted to leave the POPs in the silent slight chance range. Otherwise, consensus model output inserted more POPs for Wednesday. These did not look reasonable given the surface high expected to be shifting through the Plains States during that period, so have yanked them out. Cutter && .AVIATION... For the 06Z TAFs, Nebraska cold front continues southeast push and will pass through the terminals Thursday morning with increasing NW winds. Expect gusty winds within 1-2 hours of frontal passage. 00z NAM model guidance is slower in saturating the mid levels via isentropic ascent and layered frontogenesis and thus slower in developing post frontal rain, so have pushed back start of rain threat by 3-6 hours. Rain chances also appear to be increasing by very late afternoon and especially into Thursday evening due to top-down saturation. So, have introduced a TEMPO group into the KMCI/KMKC terminals. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
658 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .AVIATION... AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH IFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO KLBF. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT 6SM OR HIGHER. NORTH OF THIS LINE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/ DISCUSSION... A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS THE THERMAL FORCING RELAXES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS...WRF...NAM...GEM AND 00Z ECM. HOWEVER THE LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR SOLNS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THE 18Z NAM IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GEMREG KEEPING THE BEST FORCING AND SNOW SOUTHWEST AND ITS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE RAP AND HRRR TO BE OFF BUT THE RADAR TRENDS ARE OF CONCERN. A QPF BLEND OF THE MODELS ABOVE AND A 10 TO 1 RATIO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ASSUMING BRIDGES AND ROAD SURFACES DONT CROSS THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE LEAVES A NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY. OTHER AREAS WEST REMAIN OVERCAST AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA. A BLEND OF NAM AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM12 BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCED LOWS IN THE TEENS IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE 20S FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE BEYOND FRIDAY...SO DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH PERHAPS ONLY 50S BY FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION... AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT...AND BY EARLY EVENING MOSTLY JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KAIA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME VERY HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTED RH BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH BOTH DAYS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ059. && $$ SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
121 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL...EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...WITH CIGS REACHING ABOUT 5KFT BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO AROUND OR BELOW 10KTS OVERNIGHT...AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2 DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER. TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST- EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...ROSSI SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
800 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL...BUT NOTHING BELOW 8000FT AGL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE DAY FROM THE NORTH...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 17KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS...BUT WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2 DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER. TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST- EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROSSI SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL...BUT NOTHING BELOW 8000FT AGL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE DAY FROM THE NORTH...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 17KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS...BUT WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2 DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER. TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST- EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH AVIATION/LONG TERM...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2 DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER. TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST- EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 7000FT AGL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z...MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HORUS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUCH AS AT TCC SO LOOK FOR A CONTINUED LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DECKS AROUND 3000 FEET WILL QUICKLY ERODE AWAY DURING THE NEXT 30 TO 60 MINUTES BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE WEATHER MODELS ARE PAINTING A POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUD INTRUSION NEAR TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT TREND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS FAR AS IMPACT TO TCC. WILL NOT PUT ANY LOW CLOUD WORDING IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...944 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012... LATEST OBS AND RUC13 GUIDANCE SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE RISES DECREASING OVER THE E PLAINS THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADV TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GUYER .PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012... AT 00Z...A DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.37 INCH...OR ROUGHLY 80% OF NORMAL. AT 09Z...LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EVIDENCE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH A COLD FRONT BARRELING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A CLOVIS TO SANTA ROSA TO NEAR LAS VEGAS LINE. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW WEDNESDAY`S AND GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONTRAST THIS WITH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE HIGHS WILL BE AN AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INSTEAD BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY WITH THE FRONT RETREATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT. THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND FRONT PRESENTS A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE FIRST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 00Z MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...JOHNSON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE ICE GENERATION REGION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SNOW OR SLEET TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. GIVEN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN EAST WIND EVENT...BUT THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. TEMPERATURE WISE...A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE... POSITIONING IT NEAR SOCAL BY 12Z NEXT THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CREEP IN THE FORECAST AROUND MID WEEK...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW ON SLOW APPROACH. 11 .FIRE WEATHER... SHALLOW BUT QUITE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DRAMATIC COOLING HAS FOLLOWED THE FRONT PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FAIRLY QUICK AND SO WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SELY BY AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF A MODERATE WESTERLY WIND FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AGAIN FRIDAY....MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OR VENTILATION...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL START TO BRING OM HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND POOR VENTILATION IN THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS VIGOROUS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...COLDER CONDITIONS...AND SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EAST AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER CENTRAL AND WEST. POOR VENTILATION RATES EAST AND FAIR WEST ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFY AND THE LOW CLOUDS EAST GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY SETTLING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AROUND MIDWEEK. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE AND HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...TRENDING TOWARD AT LEAST AN UNSETTLED PATTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
944 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012 .UPDATE... LATEST OBS AND RUC13 GUIDANCE SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE RISES DECREASING OVER THE E PLAINS THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADV TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...554 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012... .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE REGION. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SE NM THIS MORNING. AS ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E LATE THIS MORNING...N TO NELY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE E PLAINS WILL TRANSITION TO ELY...THEN SELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. W OF THE CENTRAL MTNS...WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GUST TO 25KTS POSSIBLE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN 23Z-01Z TIME-FRAME. 33 .PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012... AT 00Z...A DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.37 INCH...OR ROUGHLY 80% OF NORMAL. AT 09Z...LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EVIDENCE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH A COLD FRONT BARRELING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A CLOVIS TO SANTA ROSA TO NEAR LAS VEGAS LINE. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW WEDNESDAY`S AND GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONTRAST THIS WITH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE HIGHS WILL BE AN AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INSTEAD BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY WITH THE FRONT RETREATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT. THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND FRONT PRESENTS A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE FIRST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 00Z MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...JOHNSON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE ICE GENERATION REGION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SNOW OR SLEET TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. GIVEN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN EAST WIND EVENT...BUT THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. TEMPERATURE WISE...A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE... POSITIONING IT NEAR SOCAL BY 12Z NEXT THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CREEP IN THE FORECAST AROUND MID WEEK...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW ON SLOW APPROACH. 11 .FIRE WEATHER... SHALLOW BUT QUITE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DRAMATIC COOLING HAS FOLLOWED THE FRONT PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FAIRLY QUICK AND SO WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SELY BY AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF A MODERATE WESTERLY WIND FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AGAIN FRIDAY....MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OR VENTILATION...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL START TO BRING OM HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND POOR VENTILATION IN THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS VIGOROUS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...COLDER CONDITIONS...AND SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EAST AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER CENTRAL AND WEST. POOR VENTILATION RATES EAST AND FAIR WEST ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFY AND THE LOW CLOUDS EAST GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY SETTLING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AROUND MIDWEEK. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE AND HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...TRENDING TOWARD AT LEAST AN UNSETTLED PATTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. FALL WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL SWING FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL ENSURE A LOCALLY COOL AIRMASS FOR NY LASTING SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER NEW YORK AT 03Z EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE BUFFALO AREA THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO AKRON OHIO. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S EAST OF THE FRONT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE FRONT. STEADY ANA-FRONTAL RAIN BAND STILL JUST WEST OF WNY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STEADIER RAIN IS YET TO COME AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL FORCING PROVIDED BY STRONG JET AT 500 MB STREAMING OVER THE THE LOWER LAKES REGION. 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR MODELS ALONG WITH SREF ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE BAND OF STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 9 HOUR WINDOW FOR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. FOR WNY AND SOUTHERN TIER THIS IS 04-13Z...FOR FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTY 06-15Z. QPF FORECAST IN LINE WITH HPC WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERHAPS THE TUG HILL AREA UNDER THE HIGHEST QPF...WITH AMOUNTS NEARING OR EVEN EXCEEDING AN INCH...WITH LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT 750MB WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWING A DRYING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BUT MOIST AIRMASS NEAR THE CAP. SO MAINLY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EAST OF LAKE ERIE /CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS/ AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD MIXING /BREEZY/ AND MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...ABOUT 15-20F COOLER THAN FRIDAY MAXES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE WITH LOWERING TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BRINGING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LAKE RESPONSES ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND UPPER 30S INLAND WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A LAKE/DIURNAL HYBRID AS THE DAY WEARS ON. COOL DAY FOR SURE WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAR INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS WINDS VARY LITTLE...BUT BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE WEAK RIDGING AND A MORE WEST TO WSW WIND AND LIGHTER GRADIENT. WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE RESPONSE...AND ALSO EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS IN AREAS OF CLEARING SKIES...ESP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING A CRISP AND DRY MONDAY...THEN THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING A MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS...PRECLUDING THE WORRY OF ANOTHER SUBFREEZING NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL...AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DRY AND WARMER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT THIS WILL COME AT A COST AS THE WARMER AIR WILL PRESAGE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT IS WELL DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MID DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH KJHW IN LIFR. STILL THINKING OBS WILL GO LOWER BUT SOME LOWERING CONFIDENCE WITH LESS AGGRESSIVE RUNS OF LAMP GUIDANCE. STILL INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER FOR SOME QUICK PERIODS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN PASSING SHOWERS. WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RAIN TONIGHT. 03Z SURFACE OBS STILL SHOW IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO WHICH SHOULD WORK EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT/RAIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 12-15Z SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW OR W. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE...THE UPPER NIAGARA AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WITH A GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY HAVE LEFT CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TOGETHER WITH RELATIVELY LAKE TEMPERATURES ADJACENT TO A COOL AIRMASS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 3-7 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WSW 15-25KTS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020-040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...WCH LONG TERM...WCH AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1026 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1015 PM UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MESO-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS SFC WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PA. WILL ADJUST POPS TO REFLECT THIS TREND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WET SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NRN TIER OF PA. 7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISC... AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE THE GREATER SYR AREA. BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVNG WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR LATER TNGT AND TMRW MRNG AS A CDFNT MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP TMRW AFTN. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10 KTS...INCRSNG TMRW AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
733 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISC... AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE THE GREATER SYR AREA. BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVNG WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR LATER TNGT AND TMRW MRNG AS A CDFNT MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP TMRW AFTN. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10 KTS...INCRSNG TMRW AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
703 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISC... AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE THE GREATER SYR AREA. BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE...GNRLY VFR ACRS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND POTENTIAL IFR OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AREA OF RAIN IS ENTERING WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT NY TERMINALS FROM 20Z-24Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO TERMINALS WELL AFTER 08Z WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS/CIGS SETTLING IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT AT AROUND 10KTS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG/RRM NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOW A BIT TONIGHT...BUT PUSH THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNRISE. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CHILLY RAIN TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF OHIO AND ALMOST TO KPIT AND KBFD AT 23Z. THE PRECIP IS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BACK IN THE COLDER AIR. THE SHIELD OF PRECIP IS VERY DIFFUSE. EVEN AT SPOTS OVER NRN OHIO WHERE IT HAS BEEN RAINING FOR QUITE A WHILE...THE ACCUMS ARE ONLY A TENTH OR TWO. SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE UPCOMING 18 HOURS WILL BE GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE RUC AND HRRR ARE JUST AT THEIR FURTHEST EDGES OF OUTPUT BY SUNRISE. BUT ALL MDLS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH FARTHER THAN JOHNSTOWN IN THE SOUTH AND WELLSBORO IN THE N...GENERALLY BISECTING THE AREA...AT 09Z. THE PRECIP MAKES VERY LITTLE INROADS INTO THE REGION BY THEN...BUT FINALLY GETS MOVING IN THE FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE NAM LINES UP WITH THE HRRR AND RUC WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS AT THIS RANGE...AND SLIDES ALL THE PRECIP THROUGH BEFORE 13Z OR 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE LEFT OVER RIGHT AT 15Z...BUT ONLY IN THE NERN MTS AND LAURELS. THE DOWNSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEFORE THE PRECIP WILL HELP TO DRY IT UP AND IT MAY NEVER RAIN TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF BLUE MTN. AT WORST THEY MIGHT SEE A FEW SPRINKLES. INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE MILD SIDE...AND IN THE 50-55F RANGE FOR LOWS SE OF THE MT NS...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS COOL OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE IN THE MORNING AND CERTAINLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW PWAT AIR FLOWS INTO THE STATE ON WESTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE L50S OVER THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 70F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MUCH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK NW FLOW/LAKE EFFECT REGIME WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS WITH CLOUDS...AND SOME SCATTERED SHRA NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD WITH LIGHT QPF. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BROAD LONGWAVE TROFFING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN TROF AXIS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OR WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND THUS THE BULK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST OF PA...THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...BUT DECIDEDLY COOLER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY AS FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH PA IN THE MODERATELY FAST NWRLY FLOW...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THRUOGH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF PA THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A SWRLY FLOW OF MILD AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE LWR GLAKES TONIGHT...THEN PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT... KEEPING KBFD IN THE LOW VFR TO MVFR RANGE LATE TODAY...THEN IFR LATER TONIGHT AS THE RAIN BECOMES STEADIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL EDGE FURTHER SE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT AS WELL...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 10-18Z WITH SCT SHOWERS TO CENTRAL MTN TAF SITES OF KJST-KAOO-KUNV-KIPT. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST. VFR TO PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE. SUN AND SUN NIGHT...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY TURN TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND WET SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INVOF OF KBFD. MON-WED...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN PENN. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
531 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .UPDATE... THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SURGED TO A LINE FROM JUST WEST OF BOWIE... TO NEAR JACKSBORO...TO POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE...TO CISCO AS OF 5 PM. THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW WITH A DEPTH BETWEEN 1-2 KFT...THUS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF STRATO- CU BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT UP THROUGH 850 MB. WE HAVE SPED UP THE FRONT AND BRING IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST PUSH OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR A SHERMAN...TO FORT WORTH...TO HAMILTON BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...WHILE 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT. WE HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-20. FEEL MOST THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS...THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ACROSS OK/KS. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE LOOKING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A RESULTING COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUNCH SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND CURRENT MOMENTUM WOULD CARRY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BECOME STATIONARY AS THE INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT NEAR THE METROPLEX TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN DEEPENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE A FORCEFUL SECONDARY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIVING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY CLEARS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SB CAPE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE... BUT POCKETS OF MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BY SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR RAIN PRODUCTION SHOULD BE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO BE THE RULE ON SATURDAY...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE 60 IF AT ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 84 53 58 47 / 10 10 30 30 20 WACO, TX 67 88 59 65 49 / 5 5 20 20 20 PARIS, TX 67 81 51 57 44 / 20 20 40 40 20 DENTON, TX 63 80 51 57 46 / 20 20 30 30 20 MCKINNEY, TX 69 82 50 57 46 / 20 20 30 30 20 DALLAS, TX 70 84 56 58 46 / 10 10 30 30 20 TERRELL, TX 69 84 53 60 46 / 10 10 30 30 20 CORSICANA, TX 67 87 57 64 48 / 10 10 20 30 20 TEMPLE, TX 67 88 60 68 49 / 5 5 10 20 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 60 80 47 56 45 / 10 10 20 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .AVIATION... SKIES ARE CLEARING VERY QUICKLY AND WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AUS AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS LATE FRI MORNING WILL BRING VFR BACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ UPDATE... WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. DISCUSSION... STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON AND WE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OUT WEST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 66 73 51 / - - - 10 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 89 62 75 50 / - - - 10 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 64 78 50 / - - - - 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 61 67 48 / - - 10 10 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 94 68 85 55 / - 0 0 - 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 64 68 49 / - - 10 10 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 91 62 82 51 / - - - - 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 90 63 76 50 / - - - - 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 90 65 80 54 / - - - 10 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 65 79 52 / - - - - 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 66 81 53 / - - - - 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .UPDATE... WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON AND WE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OUT WEST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 69 91 66 73 / 0 - - - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 65 89 62 75 / 0 - - - 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 67 90 64 78 / 0 - - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 88 61 67 / 0 - - 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 69 94 68 85 / 0 - 0 0 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 89 64 68 / 0 - - 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 67 91 62 82 / 0 - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 66 90 63 76 / 0 - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 65 90 65 80 / 0 - - - 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 69 89 65 79 / 0 - - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 69 90 66 81 / 0 - - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AROUND SUNRISE. OBSERVATIONS SHOWS NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40KTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE GREATEST. THE RUC SHOWS THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS MORNING AS MAX PRESSURE RISES MOVE ALONG THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN OUR CWA THIS MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS TOO BRIEF AND MARGINAL TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME THOUGH WINDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH ANOTHER REBOUND EXPECTED TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET TOMORROW WITH THE MET IN GENERAL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT AND WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW NOT PROVIDING MUCH DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THOUGH MODELS HAVE INCREASED ITS SPEED WITH AN ARRIVAL POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT. THE 24 HOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MANY LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND DURING THE DAY. THUS DAYTIME HIGHS ARE HARDLY ANY WARMER THAN MORNING LOWS ON SATURDAY AT FORECAST POINTS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST SHOULD GET A BETTER CHANCE TO WARM UP WITH THE LATER ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT GREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE AND A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROVIDE FOR POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE SLIGHT AND THUS POPS ARE LOW. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER COOL DAY BEFORE WEAK RIDGING FINALLY ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR DECENT RAINFALL. DESPITE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW... MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN THE PAST TIMING SUCH FEATURES AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE LOW WEAKEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OUR CWA WOULD BE LEFT ON THE DRY SIDE. HENNIG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 76 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 10 BIG SPRING TX 78 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 20 CARLSBAD NM 80 52 92 56 / 0 0 0 10 DRYDEN TX 92 57 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 83 54 93 57 / 0 0 0 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 77 51 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 75 48 85 49 / 0 0 0 10 MARFA TX 84 50 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 78 51 86 51 / 0 0 0 10 ODESSA TX 78 52 87 51 / 0 0 0 10 WINK TX 81 53 92 56 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 80/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
639 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT AND FLURRIES/SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT WHICH COULD DAMAGE COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS MOVING IN WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FROST FORMATION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT MAY DECOUPLE WHERE WINDS WOULD GO LIGHT OR CALM. HOWEVER...THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WILL MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY ALONG THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 2 KFT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN WITH WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. A STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS CLEARING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT IS RATHER COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF -1.5 TO -2...WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. THE RECORD LOW AT ROCHESTER IS 22 SET BACK IN 1976 AND THE RECORD FOR LA CROSSE IS 26...LAST SET BACK IN 2001. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S WHICH COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON....LEADING TO HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S. DRY CONDITIONS...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS. IF WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 05.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE CONUS/CANADA BORDER. THE GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GEM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EAST OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND OFFERS A SOLUTION THAT IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THEN PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST THREE RUNS...GENERATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. THE GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH DRY AND THE GEM OFFERS A MUCH FASTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ONLY INT HE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY 639 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WILL WORK THERE WAY INTO KLSE AND KRST BY 00Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY GENERALLY BETWEEN 040K-050K FEET. AS THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT BOTH SITES AFTER 06Z. BOTH THE 05.21Z RAP AND 05.18Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AT KRST FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 11Z-14Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT THE LOWER END OF MVFR. MIXING AFTER 15Z WILL RESULT IN RISING CEILINGS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 12 KNOTS THIS EVENING AT KLSE...BUT REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS AT KRST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z SATURDAY TO 12 TO 14 KNOTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041- 053>055-061. MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-088-096. IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ011-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING HEAVY...WET SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS KEEPING BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND MEANDER EAST...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN THE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NAM AND RUC LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOWS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND MAKING IT TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THESES AREAS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA AS THE LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER JAMES BAY. PLAN ON CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 14 TO 24 MPH. SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTER THOUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS GUSTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR SNOW SHOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDING ARE NOT SHOWING ENOUGH SATURATION FOR ICE ALOFT SO THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY FREEZING SPRINKLES DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR PRECIPITATION BUT THERE REALLY IS NOT APPRECIABLE LIFT SO CONCERNED THAT THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST INCREASING STRATUS AND NO PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONCERNED THAT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS DECK FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN CLEAR AND DECOUPLE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...LEADING TO AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SWITCHED OVER TO SPRINKLES LATE IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. SEEING THE SATURATION FOR SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT VERY MINIMAL LIFT. THINKING THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1.5 C BASED ON THE ECMWF....WHILE THE NAM IS SUGGESTING -2.0 C. ANOMALIES THIS LOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND A HARD...GROWING SEASON ENDING FREEZE...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 04.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY 1146 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER AIR SURGING EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES HAS LED TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING 5 KT STRONGER AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM OF DAYTIME MIXING. LOOK FOR THE GUSTS AND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT BY 01-02Z. IN FACT...GUSTS LOOK TO END ENTIRELY AT KLSE WITH THE VALLEY AIDING IN THE DECREASE. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING TIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO JUMP BACK UP TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT BY 15Z. ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS A MASS OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS AROUND 3000 FT BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO FILTER INTO THE TAF SITES. THE STRATUS IF IT DOES MOVE IN WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRATUS...HAVE FOR NOW INCLUDED A SCT 3000 AT KRST AND 3500 AT KLSE...THINKING THE VALLEY SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILING. MONITORING OF THE STRATUS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ALONG WITH SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES...THEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. CONCERNS BEYOND THIS INCLUDE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT/DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A 90-95KT 300MB JET ENTERING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SD. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP OCCLUDING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NEB WITH EXPANSIVE DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...IR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. 04.00Z MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TO ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING...EXPECTING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 15Z AND THEN EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AROUND NOON. NAM AND HRRR WRF SHOWING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. NAM DEPICTING 200-400J/KG 1-7KM MUCAPE...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS MORNING THEN PUSHING EAST AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS DRY SLOT/COLD AIR ADVECTION NOSES IN. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS HITTING AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY //ZERO TO MINUS 2C. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE OVERNIGHT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH WINDS CHILL IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...ANOTHER BLUSTERY COLD DAY WILL BE ON TAP. DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN BETTER PV-ADVECTION/COLDER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 04.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRING A LOW FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY 1146 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER AIR SURGING EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES HAS LED TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING 5 KT STRONGER AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM OF DAYTIME MIXING. LOOK FOR THE GUSTS AND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT BY 01-02Z. IN FACT...GUSTS LOOK TO END ENTIRELY AT KLSE WITH THE VALLEY AIDING IN THE DECREASE. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING TIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO JUMP BACK UP TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT BY 15Z. ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS A MASS OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS AROUND 3000 FT BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO FILTER INTO THE TAF SITES. THE STRATUS IF IT DOES MOVE IN WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRATUS...HAVE FOR NOW INCLUDED A SCT 3000 AT KRST AND 3500 AT KLSE...THINKING THE VALLEY SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILING. MONITORING OF THE STRATUS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1049 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .UPDATE...INTERESTING SITUATION LAID FORTH WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. AT 10Z...FRONT IS NEAR A LINE FROM SOUTH WAYNE...TO MARXVILLE... TO GLEN OAK. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MADISON AROUND 11 AM AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWAS SW CORNER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THIS LINE IN EASTERN IOWA AS WELL. AS SUCH...IN THIS UPDATE SKIES...WX...TEMP...AND WIND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED GIVEN THE FRONTS SPEED. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO WIND FIELDS AND REFLECTIVITY EARLY ON. AS SUCH...HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR WX AND POPS FOR TIMING PURPOSES ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STILL BE TRICKY GIVEN HOW FAST THEY ARE INCREASING IN THE SOUTHEAST. AT 1045 AM IN THE WFO SULLIVAN OFFICE...THEY ARE ALREADY UP TO 70 F...WITH THE REST OF FAR SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT ALREADY TRACKING EAST INTO THE CWA. THUS...FCST TRENDS WERE ADJUSTED GIVEN THIS AND THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...COLD FRONT NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN TAFS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND AND PRECIP TRENDS AND UPDATE OR ADD MORE DETAIL TO TAFS AS NEEDED. CIGS SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY MODERATE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MORE HEATING WILL OCCUR. SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. CLEARING MID CLOUDS AND RECENT -SHRA WL RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SOME EASTERN AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN MOVING NORTHEAST AND DRAGGING STRONG CDFNT ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG THRU MID-AFTN. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WL CARRY INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SRN WI LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHES 1.0 AHEAD OF CDFNT. SFC DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LWR 50S WL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPES POSSIBLY REACHING 100 J/KG. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SHRA LATER THIS MRNG IN THE WEST...SPREADING INTO THE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH ISOLD T. RAPID MOVEMENT OF FRONT WL RESULT IN BRIEF 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BEFORE DRIER...COLD AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND FRONT. LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ERN AREAS BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT LARGE GRADIENT IN MAX TEMP ACROSS CWA TODAY...CLOSING IN ON 80 IN SOME FAR SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS AND STAYING IN THE 60S IN THE WEST. COLD AIR SWEEPS IN TNGT...DROPPING ALL AREAS INTO THE 30S. NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION. WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON EXPANDING COLD AIR STRATUS OVER SW MN/NW IA. SHORT TERM MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL. FOR NOW WL CONTINUE WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC CLEARING FOR LATER THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE MODELS SLOWING THE SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPECT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRAPAROUND REGION OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CU...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW MID CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. 925MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AT 4 TO 5C ON FRIDAY...SO MAX TEMPS IN LOWER 50S. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LINGERING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WI FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP SFC A LITTLE MIXED...THUS LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 30...SO FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS WI FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO EVEN COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS COLDEST WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE. WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED. FREEZE HEADLINES LIKELY. LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE IT FINALLY PUSHES EAST. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH AN AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN WI ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AND TUE...AND THEN DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR WED BEHIND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CLEARING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF -RA EARLIER SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR A TIME IN PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. OTRW...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG. EXPECT STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI 15Z-22Z WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTRMS IN ITS VICINITY. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30-35 KTS EARLY THIS AFTN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AT ERN TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...EXPC VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS STRATUS ASSOCD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF AREA...BUT WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON ST SHIELD ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND SRN MN FOR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MI THIS AFTN. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTN. TSTORMS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES BY AS WELL. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS RELATIVELY MILDER LAKE MI WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 30-33 KNOTS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...ET/DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
611 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ALONG WITH SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES...THEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. CONCERNS BEYOND THIS INCLUDE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT/DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A 90-95KT 300MB JET ENTERING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SD. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP OCCLUDING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NEB WITH EXPANSIVE DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...IR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. 04.00Z MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TO ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING...EXPECTING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 15Z AND THEN EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AROUND NOON. NAM AND HRRR WRF SHOWING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. NAM DEPICTING 200-400J/KG 1-7KM MUCAPE...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS MORNING THEN PUSHING EAST AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS DRY SLOT/COLD AIR ADVECTION NOSES IN. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS HITTING AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY //ZERO TO MINUS 2C. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE OVERNIGHT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH WINDS CHILL IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...ANOTHER BLUSTERY COLD DAY WILL BE ON TAP. DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN BETTER PV-ADVECTION/COLDER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 04.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRING A LOW FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT 611 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH KRST BY 12Z AND EXPECTED THROUGH KLSE BY 14Z. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCES STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LOOK FOR THE SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO CONTINUE AT KRST THROUGH A GOOD SHARE OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MVFR DECK FOLLOWS AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER. THIS DECK SHOULD THEN BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ALONG WITH SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES...THEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. CONCERNS BEYOND THIS INCLUDE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT/DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A 90-95KT 300MB JET ENTERING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SD. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP OCCLUDING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NEB WITH EXPANSIVE DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...IR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. 04.00Z MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TO ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING...EXPECTING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 15Z AND THEN EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AROUND NOON. NAM AND HRRR WRF SHOWING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. NAM DEPICTING 200-400J/KG 1-7KM MUCAPE...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS MORNING THEN PUSHING EAST AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS DRY SLOT/COLD AIR ADVECTION NOSES IN. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS HITTING AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY //ZERO TO MINUS 2C. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE OVERNIGHT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH WINDS CHILL IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...ANOTHER BLUSTERY COLD DAY WILL BE ON TAP. DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN BETTER PV-ADVECTION/COLDER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 04.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRING A LOW FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY 1152 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012 A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST TONIGHT/THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TAF SITES. TIMING STILL EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AT KRST AND 15Z-16Z AT KLSE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND THUS ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES. ALSO...WITH THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID BACK OFF ON ANY MVFR CEILINGS OPTING INSTEAD TO JUST WITH A SCATTERED DECK. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MIX HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS AT BOTH SITES BETWEEN 17Z-02Z...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z...ALTHOUGH REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 12 KNOTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SOME CLOUD COVER BEING INDICATED IN THE MODELS WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECASTS DURING THIS COLD SNAP HOWEVER. SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE NEW 00Z EURO CAME IN LINE WITH THE DRY GFS FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONTAL RAINS THURS NIGHT. BOTH 00Z RUNS STILL INDICATE A THERMAL RIDGE ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BATTLE TUESDAY TO TRY TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK /MID- UPPER 60S/...HOWEVER STILL BELOW NORMAL. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE DEPARTED OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. GBG ALREADY HIT 31 BY 0730Z...SO THINGS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW THIS MORNING. 07Z SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT CLOUD LAYER DISSIPATING DUE TO MIXING TODAY...AND HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP BRINGS THAT CLOUD LAYER AS FAR SOUTH AS PIA/BMI...WHILE THE HRRR DOES NOT. ANOTHER AREA OF AC/CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE KANSAS AREA ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IL TODAY...AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT HIGHS MAY BE TRIMMED EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES IF WE ONLY SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE. WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO TREND THAT WAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57 NOT CLEARING OUT AT ALL...OR VERY LATE. WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF I-72 WILL HAVE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THEIR LOW TEMPS THE COLDEST. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER HAS LED TO NOT ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHORT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 60 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS WARM-UP WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...PROJECTED TO REACH OUR COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS/EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ON TUES NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-55. WE DIMINISHED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF THE IL RIVER TO INDICATE THAT TREND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BACK DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF MONDAYS HIGHS OF AROUND 60/LOW 60S. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST-SW LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL ALREADY DEVELOP WED NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS WED NIGHT ABOVE FROST CONDITIONS...NEAR 40. THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT AFFECTS CENTRAL IL. AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...A SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THAT COLD FRONT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 50S. SHIMON && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THEN HIGH CIRRUS WILL ADVECTING OVER THE SITES TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT ADVECT INTO THE SITES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING SO DID NOT ADD BR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS...THEN DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AUTEN && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036- 037-040-041. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .DISCUSSION... TODAY: GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND CONTINUE COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...WITH 0600 UTC NAM AND RUC THE ONLY MODELS COMING CLOSE TO CAPTURING THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. UNCLEAR WHEN/IF THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT: WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER ENTIRE AREAS. CONSENSUS WAS TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WARNING GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT OR BELOW 30 EXCEPT FOR THE WICHITA METRO. SUN-MON: TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AND INCREASES ON MON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASUREABLE RAIN...BUT A ROGUE SPRINKLE IN HARPER COUNTY IS POSSIBLE. TUE-FRI: FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE..WHICH IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC...IS THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FURTHER SOUTH...LEADING TO SMALLER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON THU AHEAD OF FRONT. -HOWERTON && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU RENEWED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MID LEVEL SATURATION AND EVENTUAL STRATUS BUILD DOWN MAY LEAD TO SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN FOR SAT AFTN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS...AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS STRATUS BUILD DOWN...WITH THE RAIN CHANCE....MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KICT AND KCNU. WILL INSERT SOME VCSH FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KCNU TAF SITES FOR THIS RAIN CHANCE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ALL CEILINGS BECOMING VFR AFTER 21Z/SAT...WITH CLEARING SKIES SAT EVENING. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 20 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 20 0 10 10 NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 10 10 0 0 ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 30 10 10 10 RUSSELL 48 27 56 36 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 48 27 56 35 / 20 0 10 10 SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 10 0 0 CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 10 0 0 IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 10 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 20 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 ...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF MONTANA AND WYOMING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED AT GARDEN CITY OUT OF THESE RADAR RETURNS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THIS TAF UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT GARDEN CITY AND HAYS THROUGH 12Z AND ALSO AT DODGE CITY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING BY THE LATE PERIODS OF THE TAFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 45 28 57 34 / 10 10 10 0 GCK 43 27 57 33 / 20 10 10 0 EHA 44 30 55 36 / 20 10 10 0 LBL 44 30 55 35 / 20 10 10 0 HYS 46 28 57 34 / 20 0 0 0 P28 49 29 59 35 / 10 0 0 0 && HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081- 084>090. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GERARD SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
107 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACK TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO BRING THEM TO CURRENT READINGS AS THEY ARE HOLDING STEADY. A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN SETS LATER ON. ADDED FOG TO ALL AREAS AND BEEFED IT UP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AS VSBYS ARE VARIABLE FROM 2 TO 1/2 MILES. FURTHER NORTH, JUST PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN USING THE 21Z SREF WHICH IS MATCHING WELL W/THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE FAIRLY ABUNDANT WITH THIS FRONT, SO THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A HALF TO THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE DOWNEAST MAINE WILL SEE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT MAKES TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S AND UPPER 50S, BUT THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST MAINE, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING AND QPF SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONTAL RN/SHWRS SAT EVE SHOULD SLOWLY END NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN LOW PRES SYSTEMS LATE SAT NGT THRU MIDDAY SUN WITH SOME CLRG. ANOTHER S/WV ALF PROPAGATING NE FROM THE MID ATLC STATES/CNTRL APPLCHNS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MSLY RN ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATE SUN AFTN OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA AND ENDING MON MORN ACROSS XTRM NE PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS ALF IN THE 925-850 LAYER AND THE SFC-500 M LAYER OVR WEST PTNS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY FALL LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PD OF RN/SN MIXED BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 MSL AND ALL SN AOA 2500 FT MSL LATE SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS XPCTD BLO 2500 FT MSL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE AOA 2500 FT OVER THE CNTRL MAINE HIGHLANDS AND BAXTER STATE PARK. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NW SIG QPF WILL XTND NW OF THE SFC LOW GIVEN THE OPENNESS AND FAIRLY RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE S/WV ALF...WE DID NOT MENTION ACCUMULATIONS ATTM IN THE FCST WORDING ATTM. WE DID BLEND ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE 05/00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF...WHICH BY FAR THE MOST NW WITH SIG QPF AND SLOWEST TO END PRECIP ON MON. IF MOST OF THE OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER OVR THE NW AND END FASTER OVR THE ALL OF THE FA ERLY MON MORN. SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR BY MON AFTN ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW EXITING THRU THE MARITIMES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY IN MANY SPOTS AND A FROST IS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AND A SOUTH BREEZE INCREASES. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONTO THE EAST COAST. A STRONGER LOW MAY APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL SURGE IN FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND BY SATURDAY SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT NORTHERN SPOTS AS SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY CHILLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN ALL SITES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR DUE TO RAIN, LOW CEILINGS, AND FOG, MOSTLY AFTER 06Z. DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TO LONG TERM: BRIEF IFR/LOW MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES ERLY IN RN/RN SHWRS SAT EVE WILL IMPROVE VFR BEHIND THE FRONT OVRNGT SAT NGT. VFR WILL CONT SUN THEN LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR SUN NGT CONTG INTO ERLY MON MORN IN RN...WITH RN/SN MIXED POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN AT KFVE. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES BY MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATTE TUE NGT INTO WED WITH SHWRS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE. GUSTS OF 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM: INITIALLY...SCA CONDITIONS OVR OUTER WATERS WILL CONT FROM NEAR TERM THRU ABOUT 4 AM SUN MORN...WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BLO SCA CRITERIA AFTWRDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO MON. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1205 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS COME INTO OUR NORTHWEST DELTA REGION A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO HAVE SOME DECENT GRADIENT WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KGLH HAS HAD WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THUS COOLER TEMPS THAN EXPECTED HAVE COME INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. KGLH IS ALREADY 58 DEGREES. 40S WERE OBSERVED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THE NORTH HALF AND INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. POPS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS./17/ && .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO JUST SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. 01Z TEMP AT MONTICELLO AR WAS 75 WHILE IT WAS 55 AT LITTLE ROCK. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH IS RATHER SCATTERED RIGHT NOW...IS EITHER RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTORMS. THE RUC AND HRRR ARE BOTH INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POSTFRONTAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN NWRN ZONES. MOISTURE...OR THE LACK THEREOF...IS A BIG LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z KJAN RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF ONLY 0.62 INCHES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST PAST THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND REACHING THE JACKSON METRO AREA RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE. HOURLY FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS. /DL/ && .AVIATION...THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TAF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A SOLID WIND SHIFT AS WINDS BECOME NW/N...MVFR CEILINGS ( N SECTIONS)...AND SOME ISO/SCT SHRA ( N SECTIONS). AS FOR FRONTAL TIMING...GLH LOOKS TO SEE IT BY 05Z AND GLH BY 06Z. THAT IS A TAD FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHER SITES (JAN/GTR) WILL SEE THE FRONT CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SAY BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE E/SE AREAS WILL HAVE THE FROPA LATER IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NORTHERN SITES...ESP GLH/GWO...WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME SHRA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE CEILINGS...BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE OF THE VFR VARIETY AND OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE DAY SAT. /CME/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CAA WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE DELTA BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE PINE BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT COULD BRUSH MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED MOSTLY BY THE COOLER WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE DELTA...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PINE BELT SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL AS LOW AS POTENTIALLY COULD BE AS CLOUDS WILL HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. /28/ LONG TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY THE ENSEMBLES AND MOST LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE DELTA REGION...WHICH WILL BECOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO GMOS...MEX AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS GENERALLY TOO COOL DURING THE DAY AND TOO WARM AT NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT KEPT THE CURRENT COOLER FORECAST AS MODELS SEEMED TO BE A LITTLE WARM. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO A BLEND OF GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS DRY FOR MIDWEEK...BUT HAD HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY./17/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ DL/CME/28/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .AVIATION... CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT TO VFR. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS A WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/ DISCUSSION... A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS THE THERMAL FORCING RELAXES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS...WRF...NAM...GEM AND 00Z ECM. HOWEVER THE LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR SOLNS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THE 18Z NAM IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GEMREG KEEPING THE BEST FORCING AND SNOW SOUTHWEST AND ITS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE RAP AND HRRR TO BE OFF BUT THE RADAR TRENDS ARE OF CONCERN. A QPF BLEND OF THE MODELS ABOVE AND A 10 TO 1 RATIO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ASSUMING BRIDGES AND ROAD SURFACES DONT CROSS THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE LEAVES A NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY. OTHER AREAS WEST REMAIN OVERCAST AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA. A BLEND OF NAM AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM12 BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCED LOWS IN THE TEENS IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE 20S FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE BEYOND FRIDAY...SO DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH PERHAPS ONLY 50S BY FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION... AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT...AND BY EARLY EVENING MOSTLY JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KAIA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME VERY HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTED RH BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH BOTH DAYS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ059. && $$ SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
445 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING US RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING. TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH 850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 130 AM UPDATE... MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP NY TERMINALS 06Z TO 12Z AS A CDFNT MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP TMRW AFTN BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10 KTS...INCRSNG BY THIS AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 130 AM UPDATE...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS AND SHOW A SHARPER DEFINED EDGE BETWEEN RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO DRY WEATHER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.. 1015 PM UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MESO- SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS SFC WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PA. WILL ADJUST POPS TO REFLECT THIS TREND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WET SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NRN TIER OF PA. 7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISC... AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE THE GREATER SYR AREA. BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 130 AM UPDATE... MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP NY TERMINALS 06Z TO 12Z AS A CDFNT MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP TMRW AFTN BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10 KTS...INCRSNG BY THIS AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM/HEDEN SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. FALL WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL SWING FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL ENSURE A LOCALLY COOL AIRMASS FOR NY LASTING SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER NEW YORK AT 03Z EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE BUFFALO AREA THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO AKRON OHIO. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S EAST OF THE FRONT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE FRONT. STEADY ANA-FRONTAL RAIN BAND STILL JUST WEST OF WNY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STEADIER RAIN IS YET TO COME AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL FORCING PROVIDED BY STRONG JET AT 500 MB STREAMING OVER THE THE LOWER LAKES REGION. 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR MODELS ALONG WITH SREF ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE BAND OF STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 9 HOUR WINDOW FOR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. FOR WNY AND SOUTHERN TIER THIS IS 04-13Z...FOR FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTY 06-15Z. QPF FORECAST IN LINE WITH HPC WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERHAPS THE TUG HILL AREA UNDER THE HIGHEST QPF...WITH AMOUNTS NEARING OR EVEN EXCEEDING AN INCH...WITH LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT 750MB WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWING A DRYING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BUT MOIST AIRMASS NEAR THE CAP. SO MAINLY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EAST OF LAKE ERIE /CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS/ AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD MIXING /BREEZY/ AND MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...ABOUT 15-20F COOLER THAN FRIDAY MAXES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE WITH LOWERING TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BRINGING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LAKE RESPONSES ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND UPPER 30S INLAND WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A LAKE/DIURNAL HYBRID AS THE DAY WEARS ON. COOL DAY FOR SURE WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAR INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS WINDS VARY LITTLE...BUT BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE WEAK RIDGING AND A MORE WEST TO WSW WIND AND LIGHTER GRADIENT. WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE RESPONSE...AND ALSO EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS IN AREAS OF CLEARING SKIES...ESP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING A CRISP AND DRY MONDAY...THEN THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING A MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS...PRECLUDING THE WORRY OF ANOTHER SUBFREEZING NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL...AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DRY AND WARMER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT THIS WILL COME AT A COST AS THE WARMER AIR WILL PRESAGE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT IS WELL DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MID DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LARGE AREA OF STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS TO IFR AND LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 12-15Z SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW OR W. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE...THE UPPER NIAGARA AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WITH A GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY HAVE LEFT CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TOGETHER WITH RELATIVELY LAKE TEMPERATURES ADJACENT TO A COOL AIRMASS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 3-7 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WSW 15-25KTS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020- 040-041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...WCH LONG TERM...WCH AVIATION...SMITH/TMA MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND DRY WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER AS SEEN THROUGH VARIOUS MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND AS WILL THE TIGHTEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL...PROBABLY MOSTLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS WHERE IT OCCURS AT ALL. FROPA ITSELF MAY BE GENERALLY RAIN-FREE EXCEPT FOR SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM THE MOST. THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WILL BE THE UNDERCUTTING COOL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SETS UP THAT PREVENTS JUST ABOUT ANY AND ALL WARMING UP ON MONDAY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE MID 60S AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE EVER PRESENT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAINFALL PERSIST. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE NOT FAILED TO REACH 70 SINCE APRIL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY A TRANSITIONAL DAY FROM THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ASSOC WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE FROM THE SHORT TERM TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE MAIN WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND. HOW MUCH OF ITS ASSOC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL AIR REMAINS INTACT ON TUESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT GETS SCOURED OUT WEDNESDAY THOUGH BY ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUT AN END TO THE TREND OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND CAUSE THE LONG TERM TO END WITH A RETURN OF COOL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY DROPPING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS...08-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KLBT AND KFLO. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO MON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIODS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS START THE PERIOD BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...A LITTLE LATER OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS IT WILL BE DECELERATING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL KICK UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. AS THIS GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A FURTHER BUILDING OF SEAS WILL OCCUR, MAINLY WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST DUE TO THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER JUST OUTSIDE OF FRYING PAN SHOALS. SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE SAFER AS WAVE SHADOWING OFF OF CAPE FEAR KEEPS SEAS A BIT SMALLER FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR CORNER OF AMZ 256. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND SO HAVE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THUS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES HAS SIMILARLY INCREASED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS STILL IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ITS TEMPORAL PERSISTENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING 5 FT SCEC-WORTHY SEAS INTO PART OR ALL OF THE FORECAST ZONES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN HIGH LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL SIMILARLY ABATE BY ABOUT A FOOT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJD/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
141 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR 1 MORE DAY...THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND DRY WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER AS SEEN THROUGH VARIOUS MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONE MORE DAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FROPA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE ATTAINED THOUGH MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION. POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. A 500 MB DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY... HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PRESSES OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS BARELY REACHING THE MID 60S FROM LUMBERTON TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON. USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERBATIM WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALTHOUGH WITH DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ABSENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO MONDAY. COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHS EARLIER GAVE US SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISE SKY COVER FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND "BRIDGES" WITH THE OLD CANADIAN HIGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SPOTS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 11-14 C RANGE. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY DROPPING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS...08-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KLBT AND KFLO. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO MON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIODS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT W TO SW FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ADVISORY FLAGS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RUN 2 FT OR SO INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES BACK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY WILL CREATE 15-20 KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND HIGH BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE FIRST COOL AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WATER AND THE AIR WILL BE RATHER LARGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...RJD/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR 1 MORE DAY...THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND DRY WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER AS SEEN THROUGH VARIOUS MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONE MORE DAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FROPA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE ATTAINED THOUGH MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION. POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. A 500 MB DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY... HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PRESSES OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS BARELY REACHING THE MID 60S FROM LUMBERTON TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON. USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERBATIM WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALTHOUGH WITH DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ABSENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO MONDAY. COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHS EARLIER GAVE US SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISE SKY COVER FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND "BRIDGES" WITH THE OLD CANADIAN HIGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SPOTS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 11-14 C RANGE. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LINGERING CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO GO CALM OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH EARLIER FOG ONSET LIKELY AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND KCRE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AN INLAND TERMINALS. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIODS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT W TO SW FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ADVISORY FLAGS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RUN 2 FT OR SO INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES BACK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY WILL CREATE 15-20 KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND HIGH BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE FIRST COOL AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WATER AND THE AIR WILL BE RATHER LARGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
818 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONE MORE DAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FROPA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE ATTAINED THOUGH MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION. POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. A 500 MB DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY... HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PRESSES OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS BARELY REACHING THE MID 60S FROM LUMBERTON TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON. USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERBATIM WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALTHOUGH WITH DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ABSENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO MONDAY. COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHS EARLIER GAVE US SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISE SKY COVER FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND "BRIDGES" WITH THE OLD CANADIAN HIGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SPOTS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 11-14 C RANGE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LINGERING CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO GO CALM OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH EARLIER FOG ONSET LIKELY AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND KCRE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AN INLAND TERMINALS. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIODS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT W TO SW FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ADVISORY FLAGS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RUN 2 FT OR SO INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES BACK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY WILL CREATE 15-20 KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND HIGH BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE FIRST COOL AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WATER AND THE AIR WILL BE RATHER LARGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAN NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
426 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE COLD AIR...BRINGING A WET AND COLD DAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY... SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO TENNESSEE. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FEATURE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY 19-21Z. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR FOR THIS FRONT...LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS VERY WEAK. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY WILL ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WERE THE HIGHS POPS CONTINUE TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ELSEWHERE. BIGGER CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPS. EURO MOS IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE THE GFS OR NAM MOS FORECAST. CONSIDERING ALL OF THESE MODELS HAVE HAD A WARM BIAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. KRLX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 25-35KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO INCLUDED SOME 20KT+ WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY...HELPS CREATE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...RESULTING IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AFTER 06Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND LOCALLY DERIVED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... SEVERAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...ALBEIT NOTHING MAJOR. IN GENERAL...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH AN ACTIVE KINEMATIC...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVIDENT. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LEAVING MUCH OF OUR CWA IN A TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. AT LEAST THREE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO IMPACT THE CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. FIRST...A VERY WET COLD DAY IS IN ORDER FOR SUN AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF SAT. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A SOLID LIGHT RAIN/OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN EVENT FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUN. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE...WITH IT NOW EXITING THE CWA ABOUT 6 HRS SOONER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY. HENCE...A SIGNIFICANT GRADATION IN POPS FROM 100 EARLY MORNING TO LESS THAN 20 ONLY ACROSS THE EAST BY EVENING. QPF REMAINS VERY MODEST DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.0 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...SO NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND SOLID RAIN SUN...TEMPS WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE...STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 50S PIEDMONT REGION. THERE IS SOME MINOR CONCERN FOR S- IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR WV MOUNTAINS...NOTING THAT RLX HAS INCLUDED S- ACROSS POCAHONTAS COUNTY. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP INTO THE -2C RANGE SUN ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH TO ANY EXTENT. THUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF S- AT THIS POINT. THE SUNDAY SYSTEM NO MORE EXITS TO THE EAST BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM AL/GA ACROSS SC/NC IN THE 12Z MON TO 00Z TUE TIME FRAME. LATEST MODEL RUNS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER NORTH AND SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO ALLEVIATE CONSIDERABLY THE CONCERN FOR FROST/FREEZE MON MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF JUST PATCHY FROST TO OUR WV VALLEYS FOR MON MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS NEARLY EVERY CLOUD SCHEME ATTEMPTED TO GIVE ME 100 PERCENT CLOUD COVER MON MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...HAVE INTRODUCED -RA FROM NW NC INTO THE SE VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES FOR MON IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST THINKING AND THE FAIRLY HEALTHY DYNAMICS EXHIBITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS WITH SUN...THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAY HAVOC WITH MAX TEMPS MON...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDEST READINGS I COULD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITHOUT GOING OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. SOME OF OUR SE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE UPPER 40S. BY TUE MORNING...THIS LATER SYSTEM HAS EXITED THE REGION AND THE PARENT CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED INTO CENTRAL VA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO NONE AT THIS POINT...AND AS OF NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZE. BY THE SAME TOKEN...THE WESTERN AREAS...USUALLY THE COLDEST...WILL BEGIN TO SEE RETURN FLOW...SO BY THIS POINT FROST/FREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORMALLY SHELTERED...PROTECTED AND DECOUPLED SPOTS. BY WED...A NORTHERN STREAM/ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING MORE CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME MORE -RA TO THE REGION. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED REINFORCING SHORTS OF COOL AIR AND A PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST...MAINLY THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ALLOWING WARM AIR TO ENTER THE AREA ON A SOUTHERLY WIND TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER OR BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN ENTERS FRIDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 115 AM EDT SATURDAY... EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT FOLLOWED THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM 12-16Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OF OUR AREA. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KBLF FOR SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS KBLF/KLWB BETWEEN 12-14Z...KBCB BETWEEN 14-16Z...KROA 15-17Z...KLYH 16-18Z...AND DAN 19Z-21Z. ONLY A PASSING SHOWER EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND NO PRECIP WAS INCLUDED AT ANY TAF SITES FOR THESE LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/NC. A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT (AFTER 06Z) THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING WITH PERIOD OF POOR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR CLEARING SKIES MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR...WHICH SERVES ROANOKE AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS...WILL REMAIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE INSTALLATION OF THE NEW DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY CONTINUES. THE RADAR MAY RETURN TO SERVICE AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC (KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PH NEAR TERM...PH SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PH EQUIPMENT...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
139 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE COLD AIR...BRINGING A COLD WET DAY TO THE REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 955 PM EDT FRIDAY... COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. MODELS STILL BRING FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING. MADE MINOR CHANGES IN TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE TO NO ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY... UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...PROVIDING THE TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. AS OF 4PM FRIDAY...FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM COLUMBUS OH TO PADUCAH KY CMH-PAH. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WAS CONFINED TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH...SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE FRONT FCST TO PASS THROUGH THE BLUEFIELD/LEWISBURG CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12-15Z (8-11AM) SATURDAY...ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG/BOONE/BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR BETWEEN 14-17Z (10AM-1PM)...LYNCHBURG/MARTINSVILLE BETWEEN 16-19Z (NOON- 3PM)...THEN THROUGH DANVILLE BETWEEN 19Z-22Z (3PM-6PM). A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. MODEL QPF OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST...POPS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN CWA ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES...AND LOWEST ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY. WARMEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHERE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THE LATEST. COOLEST READINGS ARE ADVERTISED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN VA WHERE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY WILL STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE AREA STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE REGION A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY. WITH THIS RAIN COMING IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND FALLING MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT (ANAFRONT)...DAY TIME TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. A SECOND STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL KICK THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END BY SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR 40F IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FROST...HOWEVER...THE GROUND MAY BE TOO WET AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK OVER THE AREA. I HAVE LEFT IN SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS WITH SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEREFORE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST...MAINLY THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ALLOWING WARM AIR TO ENTER THE AREA ON A SOUTHERLY WIND TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER OR BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN ENTERS FRIDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 115 AM EDT SATURDAY... EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT FOLLOWED THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM 12-16Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OF OUR AREA. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KBLF FOR SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS KBLF/KLWB BETWEEN 12-14Z...KBCB BETWEEN 14-16Z...KROA 15-17Z...KLYH 16-18Z...AND DAN 19Z-21Z. ONLY A PASSING SHOWER EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND NO PRECIP WAS INCLUDED AT ANY TAF SITES FOR THESE LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/NC. A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT (AFTER 06Z) THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING WITH PERIOD OF POOR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR CLEARING SKIES MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR...WHICH SERVES ROANOKE AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS...WILL REMAIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE INSTALLATION OF THE NEW DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY CONTINUES. THE RADAR MAY RETURN TO SERVICE AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC (KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PH EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
921 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A NICE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHILE IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND SNOWFALL ALL THE WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SO EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL 3 PM. ALSO EXPANDED IT EASTWARD INTO PHILLIPS/SEDGWICK COUNTIES BASED ON SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING AND PRESENT TRAJECTORY OF SNOW BAND. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR IS STUCK IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WERE JUST NOW FINALLY APPROACHING THE FORT COLLINS/GREELEY CORRIDOR WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT. WE STILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF RELEASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUT ONLY WHEN WE TURN WINDS SUFFICIENTLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS FOR THE WEAK LIFT NECESSARY. THAT NOW LOOKS CLOSER TO NOONTIME/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DENVER/BOULDER AREA IF WE WERE TO SEE THE SHOWERS GENERATE. LATEST RUC AND HRRR TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. && .AVIATION...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOW CLOUDS ARE REALLY SOCKED IN WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES OF 1-3 MILES IN FOG ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS JUST SLIGHTLY. STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA 19Z-22Z. MOST LIKELY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ACCUMULATION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ SHORT TERM...A RATHER STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO TODAY. DECENT QG ASCENT AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL OCCUR OVER THE NERN PLAINS THRU 18Z WITH DECREASING VALUES BY AFTN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE WYOMING-NEBRASKA BORDER SE ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY TO WIGGINS TO LAST CHANCE LINE. SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES SO WILL LEAVE WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS LOW LVL WINDS THRU MIDDAY WILL BE MORE NNW SO CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT BE AS GREAT ESPECIALLY FM THE SRN SUBURBS OF DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SRN FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS THERE IS VERY DRY WEST OF THE DIVIDE SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON WEST FACING SLOPES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S. FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE RGN WHILE A SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WITH THIS 2ND FEATURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN WITH ITS PASSAGE. LOW TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS NERN CO SO WILL KEEP HARD FREZE WARNING IN PLACE. LONG TERM...THE LAST WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 0C. NORTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE THERE IS ONE LAST RIPPLE WHICH WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING WITH THIS FEATURE WITH HIGH TEMPS COOLING BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS WEAK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS DRY SO NO POPS ON TUESDAY. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS BROAD CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID WEEK WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN A BIT OF MOISTURE AND MAYBE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURPRISINGLY...BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS EJECT AND WEAKEN THE LOW ACROSS COLORADO ON LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS SOME MOSITURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IF INDEED THE LOW DOES PUSH OUT. NO COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL. AVIATION...THERE IS A DENVER CYCONE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL STAY TO THE SSE OF THE AIRPORT. AS A RESULT WILL SEE LIFR CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 16Z WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN. AS TALKED ABOUT ABV APPEARS ANY SNOW AT THE AIRPORT WILL BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THRU THE AFTN HOURS. BY LATE AFTN SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END WITH CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENE THIS MORNING BOUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NNE BY MIDDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESE. OVERNIGHT THE NAM SHOWS A POSSIBLE WK DENVER CYCLONE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT 09Z THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z THE NAM SHOWS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR COMING IN WHICH WOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ038>051. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ042- 044-048>051. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>051. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM....ENTREKIN AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS BURNED OFF...AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION FROM 18-00Z...MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR BOTH AGREE WITH PRECIP WEAKENING AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF. WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND THE CHC OF PCPN...SIDED WITH THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND THE EXTENT OF PCPN FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSING TO THE NORTH...JUST EAST OF THE CWA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS AGREEING OF PCPN OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME TO CATEGORICAL...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURRING. THE QUESTION NOW REMAINS IS THE INTENSITY...WITH MANY SREF MEMBERS KEEPING THE RAINFALL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. SO KEPT THINGS DRY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN DELAYED POPS SLIGHTLY TOMORROW MORNING TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LOW. THE MAIN MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD ACT AS DECENT TRIGGER TO GET THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR BEGINS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN AGAIN ON SUN...TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S...REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MULTIPLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRYING OUT THE LEVELS...ONLY KEPT POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BROAD HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN US. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT. SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TUES NIGHT...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR DURING THE DAY...COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN AT THE SURFACE...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR AND QUIET DAY. THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...WITH THE MODELS BRINGING THROUGH ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TIMING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. IF THE 00Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION DOES END UP HAPPENING...WE COULD ALSO BE SEEING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM FLUCTUATE A BIT...WITH COOLER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK UNDER THE BROAD HIGH. EACH TIME WE RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE. USED A BLEND OF MOS/HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED AT THE CITY TERMINALS IN THE 20-21Z TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR KSWF. REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED. SW FLOW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT VEERS WEST RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE SETTLING NW...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH THIS...WE SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SEAS REACHING 5 FT. THE REST OF THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SUB SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE BEING MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING. && .HYDROLOGY... PRECIP TOTALS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BASIN AVERAGES OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM EVENT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...JC/MET MARINE...SEARS HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1018 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS BURNED OFF...AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. AS COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION FROM 18-00Z...MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR BOTH AGREE WITH PRECIP WEAKENING AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF. WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND THE CHC OF PCPN...SIDED WITH THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND THE EXTENT OF PCPN FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSING TO THE NORTH...JUST EAST OF THE CWA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS AGREEING OF PCPN OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME TO CATEGORICAL...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURRING. THE QUESTION NOW REMAINS IS THE INTENSITY...WITH MANY SREF MEMBERS KEEPING THE RAINFALL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. SO KEPT THINGS DRY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN DELAYED POPS SLIGHTLY TOMORROW MORNING TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LOW. THE MAIN MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD ACT AS DECENT TRIGGER TO GET THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR BEGINS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN AGAIN ON SUN...TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S...REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MULTIPLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRYING OUT THE LEVELS...ONLY KEPT POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BROAD HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN US. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT. SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TUES NIGHT...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR DURING THE DAY...COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN AT THE SURFACE...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR AND QUIET DAY. THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...WITH THE MODELS BRINGING THROUGH ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TIMING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. IF THE 00Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION DOES END UP HAPPENING...WE COULD ALSO BE SEEING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM FLUCTUATE A BIT...WITH COOLER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK UNDER THE BROAD HIGH. EACH TIME WE RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE. USED A BLEND OF MOS/HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FT. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 14 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE WIND IN AROUND 310 TRUE WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH THIS...WE SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SEAS REACHING 5 FT. THE REST OF THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SUB SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE BEING MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING. && .HYDROLOGY... PRECIP TOTALS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BASIN AVERAGES OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM EVENT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...MET MARINE...SEARS HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT WEATHER/UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CHECKING IN EVEN COOLER THAN FRIDAY AT -9C. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.9 INCHES OR MORE. INFRARED/IR AND FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING THINNING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM BREVARD OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTH AND TO THE WEST. RUC13 250MB JET SPEED ANALYSIS INDICATING A JET MAX TO THE NORTH AND THE 500MB VORTICITY PLOT WAS SHOWING SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXES MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY THE INITIALLY THICK CLOUD COVER BUT ONCE THE CLOUDINESS THINS OUT MORE TOWARD NOON THE COMBINATION OF THE SUN BEING HIGHER IN THE SKY...HEATING WILL START IN EARNEST. ALREADY WARM WITH 9AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND MOIST ENOUGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS THESE WINDS START MIXING DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING THEY WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MORNING UPDATE TO THE WIND GRIDS AND PROGRESSION OF WEATHER DURING THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION TODAY...COPIOUS MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER 1.9 INCHES) WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING OVER EC FL. SFC HEATING WILL BE BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WHILE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AS A RESULT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN OUT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN CHANCES DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTN PRESUMABLY AS A RESULT OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER HEATING ORLANDO NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON... WILL HOLD ONTO TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARD. ADVERTISING 40 POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT 50 POP SOUTH INTERIOR (OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE) WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER (ABOUT -9C) AND A LITTLE STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE DEEPER CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN ESP WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN RECENT DAYS. SUN...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR ON ITS BACKSIDE. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW QUICKLY DRIER AIR CAN FILTER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA AS THIS WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOT A BIG PUSH FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND THIS MAY SLOW UP SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 PERCENT POPS EXCEPT 40 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE DEEPEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE FORM OF NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL AT NEAR -8C. THE STEERING FLOW FOR CONVECTION REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION AND WITH A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MON-FRI...THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INFILTRATES SOUTHWARD AND THE AIRMASS MODIFIES BECOMING MORE STABLE. RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH UPPER RIDING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD FROM THE GOMEX. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIME WITH GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR NEAR THE COAST WITH LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY. POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE BUMPED UPWARD ON MON IF THE DRIER AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE DOWN THE PENINSULA. HIGHER POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WOULD THEN LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. WHILE DRYING WILL BE NOTICEABLE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT... COOLING WILL INITIALLY NOT BE NOTICEABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ALONG THE COAST...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S WED-FRI MORNINGS. && .AVIATION... BROKEN STRATUS DECK BELOW FL010 BURNT OFF MID MORNING. VFR THRU 18Z. TEMPO MVFR VCTS 18Z-24Z. VFR AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION COULD SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH (LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO) THROUGH 12Z WHILE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR IFR AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN A COUPLE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. && .MARINE... CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS/UPDATE...BUOYS RECORDED 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS OUT TO 009 AND 4 FOOT SEAS AT 010. THE TWO NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 8 KNOTS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES NEARS NORTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE COMPONENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDED TIMING OF SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION TODAY...VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT/CLOUD LINES WILL PRESENT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BOATING WITH NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET. SUN...A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING MAINLY ONSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON SURROUNDING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BASICALLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. SEAS AOB 3 FEET. MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE LATEST WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-TOPPED COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME WITH SPEEDS AWAY FROM THE COAST INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AND A MAINLY NNE/NE WIND DIRECTION. SEAS BUILDING AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 3-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD IN AN INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...WIMMER IMPACT WX...SHARP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
629 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SOME CLOUD COVER BEING INDICATED IN THE MODELS WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECASTS DURING THIS COLD SNAP HOWEVER. SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE NEW 00Z EURO CAME IN LINE WITH THE DRY GFS FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONTAL RAINS THURS NIGHT. BOTH 00Z RUNS STILL INDICATE A THERMAL RIDGE ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BATTLE TUESDAY TO TRY TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK /MID- UPPER 60S/...HOWEVER STILL BELOW NORMAL. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE DEPARTED OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. GBG ALREADY HIT 31 BY 0730Z...SO THINGS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW THIS MORNING. 07Z SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT CLOUD LAYER DISSIPATING DUE TO MIXING TODAY...AND HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP BRINGS THAT CLOUD LAYER AS FAR SOUTH AS PIA/BMI...WHILE THE HRRR DOES NOT. ANOTHER AREA OF AC/CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE KANSAS AREA ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IL TODAY...AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT HIGHS MAY BE TRIMMED EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES IF WE ONLY SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE. WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO TREND THAT WAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57 NOT CLEARING OUT AT ALL...OR VERY LATE. WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF I-72 WILL HAVE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THEIR LOW TEMPS THE COLDEST. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER HAS LED TO NOT ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHORT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 60 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS WARM-UP WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...PROJECTED TO REACH OUR COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS/EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ON TUES NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-55. WE DIMINISHED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF THE IL RIVER TO INDICATE THAT TREND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BACK DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF MONDAYS HIGHS OF AROUND 60/LOW 60S. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST-SW LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL ALREADY DEVELOP WED NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS WED NIGHT ABOVE FROST CONDITIONS...NEAR 40. THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT AFFECTS CENTRAL IL. AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...A SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THAT COLD FRONT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 50S. && .AVIATION... ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 20000 FEET MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM SPI TO DEC AND CMI. IN ADDITION...WE ARE WATCHING A BAND OF VFR CIGS ACRS EXTREME NRN IL DRIFTING SE THAT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING WITH BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING UP TO 20 KTS. ANY GUSTS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. SMITH && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036- 037-040-041. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
853 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITHIN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (AHEAD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS CENTERED NEAR CHEYENNE, WY AS OF 1330 UTC). WSR-88D TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR (AS OF 1330 UTC) AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED IN DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY. WILL CARRY LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 23 TO THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE BELOW 900 FEET AGL PER RAP13 SHORT TERM MODEL FORECAST. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY, AND ANY SNOWFLAKES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS WHERE LOCAL DROP OF FREEZING LEVEL WILL OCCUR DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES FROM GREATER ASCENT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER THE 20 OR 21Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCOOTS EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY DIPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED AROUND THE HAYS TERMINAL THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND REMAIN AS VIRGA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 41 28 57 34 / 40 20 10 0 GCK 38 27 57 33 / 50 20 10 0 EHA 41 30 55 36 / 10 10 10 0 LBL 42 30 55 35 / 10 10 10 0 HYS 43 28 57 34 / 30 20 0 0 P28 46 29 59 35 / 30 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081- 084>090. && $$ UPDATE...UMSCHEID SYNOPSIS...GERARD SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THERE WAS CONCERN THAT CIGS OVER SE KS MAY DROP INTO MVFR STATUS FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MORE AS LOWEST ~8,000FT ARE QUITE DRY. AS SUCH HAVE NOW PLACED KCNU IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE. SOME -RA SCOOTING E OVER THE NE OK/SE KS BORDER WILL REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL. SOME -RA THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NC OK WILL LIKEWISE MOVE DUE ALONG & JUST S OF THE KS BORDER & AS SUCH HAVE KEPT "VCSH" OUT OF KICT FOR THIS MORNING. ALL -RA SHOULD VACATE THE KS AREA BY 07/00Z AS A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF SCOOTS SE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND CONTINUE COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...WITH 0600 UTC NAM AND RUC THE ONLY MODELS COMING CLOSE TO CAPTURING THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. UNCLEAR WHEN/IF THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT: WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER ENTIRE AREAS. CONSENSUS WAS TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WARNING GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT OR BELOW 30 EXCEPT FOR THE WICHITA METRO. SUN-MON: TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AND INCREASES ON MON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASUREABLE RAIN...BUT A ROGUE SPRINKLE IN HARPER COUNTY IS POSSIBLE. TUE-FRI: FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE..WHICH IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC...IS THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FURTHER SOUTH...LEADING TO SMALLER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON THU AHEAD OF FRONT. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 20 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 20 0 10 10 NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 10 10 0 0 ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 30 10 10 10 RUSSELL 48 27 56 36 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 48 27 56 35 / 20 0 10 10 SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 10 0 0 CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 10 0 0 IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 10 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 20 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF MONTANA AND WYOMING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED AT GARDEN CITY OUT OF THESE RADAR RETURNS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY DIPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED AROUND THE HAYS TERMINAL THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND REMAIN AS VIRGA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 45 28 57 34 / 10 10 10 0 GCK 43 27 57 33 / 20 10 10 0 EHA 44 30 55 36 / 20 10 10 0 LBL 44 30 55 35 / 20 10 10 0 HYS 46 28 57 34 / 20 0 0 0 P28 49 29 59 35 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081- 084>090. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GERARD SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
901 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING US RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS. STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO... 7 AM UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD MIDDAY. 4 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING. TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH 850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER 16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP. OUTLOOK... SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
711 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING US RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 7 AM UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD MIDDAY. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... 4 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING. TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH 850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALSP POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER 16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP. OUTLOOK... SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 12Z KLZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION UP TO AROUND 790 MB WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL BUT THE 00Z HI-RES WRF-ADVANCED RESEARCH MODEL /WRF-ARW/ AND THE LATEST RUC ARE STILL A BIT TOO SLOW BUT PICKING UP THE BEST ON THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...RUC 300-310K SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS UP ACCORDINGLY AND MENTION ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF I-40. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS CLOUD COVER AND RETURNING PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING EARLIER FORECASTED HIGHS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. CJC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ UPDATE... UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH AND COOL AIR IS POURING SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM 43 DEGREES AT WALNUT RIDGE AR TO 63 DEGREES IN MONROE COUNTY MS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND THE CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO PERHAPS I-40. THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY LATER TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES TONIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PULL OUT OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE TEMPORARY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION SPREADING MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL AGAIN WITH READINGS AROUND 60. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKER AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIP WITH IT...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMPLICATE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST HOWEVER AS MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING ACROSS NW SECTIONS WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MONDAY MORNING...LEFT SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NW TN. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER THE EARLY OCTOBER SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH SOME FROST POTENTIAL NEAR THE TN RIVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION BEGINS PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. SJM && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS CIGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...WITH CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT MEM...MKL...AND TUP EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. JBR IS ALREADY VFR AND LIKELY REMAIN THERE UNTIL LATER WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MEM AND MKL...SO HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP TO INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AFTER 07/04Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 16-18KTS DURING SHOWER ACTIVITY. JAB && .AVIATION... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 56 45 61 44 / 50 50 10 20 MKL 55 42 59 39 / 40 60 10 10 JBR 53 40 59 38 / 50 60 10 10 TUP 60 45 62 43 / 50 40 20 20 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 943 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THE LAST FEW FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOTS FROM THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING UP SOME AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS WELL WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ILLINOIS. HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO INCREASE THE SKY COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...PLUS TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. WIDESPREAD LOWS FROM 27-32 DID OCCUR IN THAT AREA...WHICH DID NOT START CLOUDING UP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KPIA/KBMI... ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET. THINK THE MAIN CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET...FROM THE CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. MOST OF THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. GEELHART && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SOME CLOUD COVER BEING INDICATED IN THE MODELS WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECASTS DURING THIS COLD SNAP HOWEVER. SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE NEW 00Z EURO CAME IN LINE WITH THE DRY GFS FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONTAL RAINS THURS NIGHT. BOTH 00Z RUNS STILL INDICATE A THERMAL RIDGE ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BATTLE TUESDAY TO TRY TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK /MID- UPPER 60S/...HOWEVER STILL BELOW NORMAL. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE DEPARTED OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. GBG ALREADY HIT 31 BY 0730Z...SO THINGS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW THIS MORNING. 07Z SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT CLOUD LAYER DISSIPATING DUE TO MIXING TODAY...AND HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP BRINGS THAT CLOUD LAYER AS FAR SOUTH AS PIA/BMI...WHILE THE HRRR DOES NOT. ANOTHER AREA OF AC/CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE KANSAS AREA ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IL TODAY...AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT HIGHS MAY BE TRIMMED EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES IF WE ONLY SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE. WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO TREND THAT WAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57 NOT CLEARING OUT AT ALL...OR VERY LATE. WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF I-72 WILL HAVE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THEIR LOW TEMPS THE COLDEST. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER HAS LED TO NOT ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHORT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 60 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS WARM-UP WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...PROJECTED TO REACH OUR COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS/EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL ON TUES NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-55. WE DIMINISHED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF THE IL RIVER TO INDICATE THAT TREND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BACK DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF MONDAYS HIGHS OF AROUND 60/LOW 60S. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST-SW LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL ALREADY DEVELOP WED NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS WED NIGHT ABOVE FROST CONDITIONS...NEAR 40. THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT AFFECTS CENTRAL IL. AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...A SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THAT COLD FRONT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 50S. SHIMON && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 ...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH 250MB CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 700MB FRONTOGENETIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED AIR (700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 0 OR 1 DEGC AT KRIW, KDNR, KDDC, KAMA, KOUN). PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ALL ALONG THE STRONGEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (THE STRONGEST OF WHICH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 17Z). LIGHTER BANDED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 0.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS MEASURED SO FAR AT DODGE CITY (ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN). SNOW WAS REPORTED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS DIGHTON...AND VERY BRIEFLY MIXED IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORD COUNTY DURING ONE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THE SNOW LINE IS MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE RAP ANALYZED 900 FT AGL FREEZING LEVEL...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON (AND POINTS NORTHWEST) AT 18Z. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THIS EVENING: MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 700MB) WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL DRYING FROM 800 TO 500MB (AND ABOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE) WILL INCREASE AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT CLOUD IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE (800-900MB) WILL ALSO BE DECREASING...HOWEVER RATE OF DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IS STILL A FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS LOW STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE AS REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECIRCULATES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE IN THIS LAYER. FEEL THAT CLOUDS IN THE 800-900MB LAYER WILL SCATTER OUT SLOWLY FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT...AND MOST PROMINENT FARTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. OVERNIGHT: A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH TAKING A TRACK FROM ROUGHLY WRAY, COLORADO TO DODGE CITY TONIGHT. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S RATHER QUICKLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL TO 28 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY 08 OR 09Z AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR PROBABLY 4 OR 5 HOURS...WITH MINIMUM AROUND SUNRISE OF 25 TO 27 DEGREES NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO NESS CITY TO LACROSSE LINE. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FREEZE HEADLINES. WILL CONTINUE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING (28 DEGREES OR BELOW FOR LOWS) NORTH OF A JOHNSON TO BUCKLIN TO STAFFORD LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING FOR LOWS 29 TO 32 DEGREES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF WEST CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THE END TO THE GROWING SEASON WITH THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SUNDAY: A SECONDARY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD BACK TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NO OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. A WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM (850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO +5 TO +9C FROM EAST TO WEST) WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 MONDAY: BROAD 500-250 HPA WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THIS ORTHOGONAL FLOW WRT THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A LEE TROUGH TO FORM MONDAY FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 HPA. AS A RESULT, A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S DEG F TO AROUND 70 DEG F. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE FREE OF ANY SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. TUESDAY: THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES TUESDAY AS A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UL FEATURE WILL USHER IN A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE USED 12Z ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO PERFORM POORLY (IN THIS CASE, USUALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FROPA). HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEG F ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO MID 70S DEG F ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH A LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT. SFC WINDS DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS HIGH AS 850 HPA WINDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. WEDNESDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DENSITY GRADIENT. HIGHS IN THE 60S DEG F ARE EXPECTED AS FAIRLY COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES (9-13 DEG C) ARE FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. WILL ALSO RUN WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS (AROUND 3 PERCENT) FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY AND BEYOND: THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. FOR EXAMPLE, YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUN HAD THE WARM SECTOR (HIGHER THETA-E AIR) SPREADING NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. TODAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS THAT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER AS A WAA PATTERN/THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG SAID FRONT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ALLBLEND POPS ALTHOUGH WILL SMOOTH POPS TOWARDS A BIAS TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS WAS GENERALLY DISREGARDED AS THE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH UL FEATURES THAT WILL PROBABLY SLOW DOWN WITH TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UL LOW THAT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION. IT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARM SECTOR PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED REDISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY PER UNIT MASS (I.E. CAPE) IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF WHEREVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE, THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. KINEMATIC PROFILES ALSO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS THE UL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO KANSAS WITH 250 HPA FLOW INCREASING TO 100 KT, 500 HPA FLOW INCREASING TO 60 KT, AND FAIRLY STRONG AND VEERING FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 700 HPA. SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN OCTOBER ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE PLAINS. IN FACT, THERE WERE TORNADOES LAST OCTOBER ACROSS THE REGION LAST YEAR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE STORM MODE AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 1000 TO 2500 FEET (REMAINING IN THE MVFR RANGE). AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY COMES TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CEILING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT INCREASE UP TO 12 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 28 57 34 69 / 10 10 0 0 GCK 28 57 32 69 / 10 10 0 0 EHA 30 54 35 67 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 30 54 34 67 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 26 58 34 70 / 20 0 0 0 P28 29 56 35 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081- 084>090. && $$ SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID LONG TERM...SUGDEN AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 ...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH 250MB CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 700MB FRONTOGENETIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED AIR (700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 0 OR 1 DEGC AT KRIW, KDNR, KDDC, KAMA, KOUN). PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ALL ALONG THE STRONGEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (THE STRONGEST OF WHICH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 17Z). LIGHTER BANDED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 0.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS MEASURED SO FAR AT DODGE CITY (ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN). SNOW WAS REPORTED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS DIGHTON...AND VERY BRIEFLY MIXED IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORD COUNTY DURING ONE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THE SNOW LINE IS MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE RAP ANALYZED 900 FT AGL FREEZING LEVEL...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON (AND POINTS NORTHWEST) AT 18Z. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THIS EVENING: MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 700MB) WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL DRYING FROM 800 TO 500MB (AND ABOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE) WILL INCREASE AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT CLOUD IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE (800-900MB) WILL ALSO BE DECREASING...HOWEVER RATE OF DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IS STILL A FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS LOW STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE AS REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECIRCULATES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE IN THIS LAYER. FEEL THAT CLOUDS IN THE 800-900MB LAYER WILL SCATTER OUT SLOWLY FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT...AND MOST PROMINENT FARTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. OVERNIGHT: A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH TAKING A TRACK FROM ROUGHLY WRAY, COLORADO TO DODGE CITY TONIGHT. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S RATHER QUICKLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL TO 28 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY 08 OR 09Z AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR PROBABLY 4 OR 5 HOURS...WITH MINIMUM AROUND SUNRISE OF 25 TO 27 DEGREES NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO NESS CITY TO LACROSSE LINE. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FREEZE HEADLINES. WILL CONTINUE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING (28 DEGREES OR BELOW FOR LOWS) NORTH OF A JOHNSON TO BUCKLIN TO STAFFORD LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING FOR LOWS 29 TO 32 DEGREES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF WEST CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THE END TO THE GROWING SEASON WITH THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SUNDAY: A SECONDARY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD BACK TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NO OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. A WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM (850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO +5 TO +9C FROM EAST TO WEST) WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 1000 TO 2500 FEET (REMAINING IN THE MVFR RANGE). AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY COMES TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CEILING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT INCREASE UP TO 12 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 28 57 34 69 / 10 10 0 0 GCK 28 57 32 69 / 10 10 0 0 EHA 30 54 35 67 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 30 54 34 67 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 26 58 34 70 / 20 0 0 0 P28 29 56 35 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081- 084>090. && $$ SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION AND SYNOPSIS SECTIONS... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH 250MB CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 700MB FRONTOGENETIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED AIR (700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 0 OR 1 DEGC AT KRIW, KDNR, KDDC, KAMA, KOUN). PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ALL ALONG THE STRONGEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (THE STRONGEST OF WHICH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 17Z). LIGHTER BANDED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 0.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS MEASURED SO FAR AT DODGE CITY (ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN). SNOW WAS REPORTED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS DIGHTON...AND VERY BRIEFLY MIXED IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORD COUNTY DURING ONE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THE SNOW LINE IS MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE RAP ANALYZED 900 FT AGL FREEZING LEVEL...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON (AND POINTS NORTHWEST) AT 18Z. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 1000 TO 2500 FEET (REMAINING IN THE MVFR RANGE). AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY COMES TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CEILING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT INCREASE UP TO 12 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 41 28 57 34 / 40 20 10 0 GCK 38 27 57 33 / 50 20 10 0 EHA 41 30 55 36 / 10 10 10 0 LBL 42 30 55 35 / 10 10 10 0 HYS 43 27 57 34 / 30 20 0 0 P28 46 29 59 35 / 30 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081- 084>090. && $$ SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMBINED WITH 700 MB CONVERGENCE...HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT RSL/HUT/ICT BUT MAINLY WITH VFR VSBYS/CIGS AS IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LESSER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHEAST IN DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR. STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE KANSAS REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THERE WAS CONCERN THAT CIGS OVER SE KS MAY DROP INTO MVFR STATUS FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MORE AS LOWEST ~8,000FT ARE QUITE DRY. AS SUCH HAVE NOW PLACED KCNU IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE. SOME -RA SCOOTING E OVER THE NE OK/SE KS BORDER WILL REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL. SOME -RA THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NC OK WILL LIKEWISE MOVE DUE ALONG & JUST S OF THE KS BORDER & AS SUCH HAVE KEPT "VCSH" OUT OF KICT FOR THIS MORNING. ALL -RA SHOULD VACATE THE KS AREA BY 07/00Z AS A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF SCOOTS SE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND CONTINUE COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...WITH 0600 UTC NAM AND RUC THE ONLY MODELS COMING CLOSE TO CAPTURING THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. UNCLEAR WHEN/IF THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT: WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER ENTIRE AREAS. CONSENSUS WAS TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WARNING GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT OR BELOW 30 EXCEPT FOR THE WICHITA METRO. SUN-MON: TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AND INCREASES ON MON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASUREABLE RAIN...BUT A ROGUE SPRINKLE IN HARPER COUNTY IS POSSIBLE. TUE-FRI: FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE..WHICH IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC...IS THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FURTHER SOUTH...LEADING TO SMALLER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON THU AHEAD OF FRONT. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 30 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 30 10 10 10 NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 20 10 0 0 ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 40 20 10 10 RUSSELL 46 27 56 36 / 30 10 0 0 GREAT BEND 46 27 56 35 / 30 10 10 10 SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 20 10 0 0 MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 20 10 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 20 0 0 CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 20 0 0 IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 20 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 30 20 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
104 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... HRRR SUGGESTED 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN CHASE COUNTY FROM DEFORMATION AND CSI SNOW BANDING. KIML OBSERVERS REPORTED 4 INCHES AT 1 PM CST. OVERALL THE AREA OF SNOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT DRITS EAST SOUTHEAST. A NEW FCST IS OUT FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND SLOWER RAP13 SOLNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 INCHES OR SO IN CHASE COUNTY FOR TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES COVERING GRASS AND PASTURE...NOT ROADS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ AVIATION... FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR KLBF...OVERCAST SKIES WITH -SN ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIFR VSBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM TO 1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 600 FEET POSSIBLE WITHIN INTERMITTENT BANDS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AROUND 21Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR 2500 FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KVTN...SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ UPDATE... DISCUSSION... A HARD FREEZE IS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WRN KS/ERN COLO BY 12Z SUNDAY SETTING UP A WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO SWRN NEB. A BLEND OF THE WRF...ECM...NAM GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THIS AREA. ALSO...THE NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING THE FOG SIGNAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS MOST LIKELY WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS FALLEN AND LESS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ UPDATE... DISCUSSION... NEW 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURE FCST FOR HIGHS 35 TO 40 BENEATH THE SNOW SHIELD. THIS IS BASED ON THE MEDIUM OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FCSTS WHICH GIVE NORTH PLATTE A HIGH NEAR 40. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING 30 PLUS DEGREE DEW PTS...FROM TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA...FROM KIEN TO KEAR. ALSO THIS LINE IS CLOSE TO THE CLOUD LINE SEEN ON IR SAT. AS A RESULT TEMPS IN THE EAST OF THE CWA HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S...WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WY WITH SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE. DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY NOON. 850 TEMPS BELOW ZERO AND 85 TO 95 PERCENT SATURATION ACROSS A DEEP...AROUND 1500 M...FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. GROUND IS STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND SURF TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS ALL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SE NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SW NEB. ROADWAYS SHOULD JUST BE WET AS SNOW SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT...HOWEVER SOME BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES MAY SEE A DUSTING. GRASSY AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ENDING FROM NW TO SE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN CLOSE TO 40 IN THE SW. WARMER MID 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY COLD TEMPS AS SKIES CLEAR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CURRENT DEW PTS IN THAT RANGE IN THE CLEAR SKIES...AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE YET. WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEST TO SW DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ALSO GOING TO BE DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 FOR MONDAY. MID WEEK WILL SEE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIG INTO THE FAR SW CONUS...WHICH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. LONG WAY TROUGH TO TAKE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED. THEN EYES TURN TO THE LOW AS MODELS PUSH THE LOW TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING FRIDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY. GULF IS OPEN WITH DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM. DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED YET DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT...BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROMISING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC/TAYLOR AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING US LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1215 PM UPDATE... CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY THRU THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RMNG BHND. CLDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVR EXTRM NW SXNS THO HARD TO BELIEVE MANY PLACES WL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN WITH WLY FLOW OFF OF THE LK. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO MV MUCH MORE THIS AFTN...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ACRS CNTRL NY TOPPING OUT ARND 50. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE U50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO... 9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS. STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG. 7 AM UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD MIDDAY. 4 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING. TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH 850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH INDICATIONS OF BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS THEN LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A MAINTAINED PRESENCE OF SHOWER CHANCES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY WITH IMPROVED WX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF AND SFC FRONT MAY SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE CENTER OF CONTINENTAL POLAR...FALL- LIKE...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. FOLLOWED THE HPC DAY 3-7 GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH ONLY MINOR LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WITH RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF IFR AND AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS HAS MOVED EAST TODAY WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. STRATOCU CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE PARTIALLY DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. FORECAST BEYOND 00Z IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN BEHAVIOR OF STRATOCU DISSIPATION AND ANY SUBSEQUENT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BREAKS OF CLEAR SKY. WE THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO WINDY AND THUS MIXY FOR DENSE FOG...AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LAYERS OF STRATUS/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN BUT COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. AM LEANING WITH THE COLDER AIR POURING ACROSS THE WARMER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE THE CLOUDS...RATHER THAN HAVING THE RADIATIONAL FOG SET IN AFTER ABOUT 04Z-06Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN TOWARD THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS VALID FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF MVFR PROBABLE AFTER 18Z SUN. OUTLOOK... SUN NIGHT...BECOMING VFR MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPLY KELM. MON TO TUE...VFR. WED...VFR/MVFR. SOME SHOWERS. THU...VFR. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1221 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING US LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1215 PM UPDATE... CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY THRU THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RMNG BHND. CLDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVR EXTRM NW SXNS THO HARD TO BELIEVE MANY PLACES WL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN WITH WLY FLOW OFF OF THE LK. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO MV MUCH MORE THIS AFTN...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ACRS CNTRL NY TOPPING OUT ARND 50. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE U50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO... 9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS. STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG. 7 AM UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD MIDDAY. 4 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING. TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH 850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... 130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW ON FRI MRNG. H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER 16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP. OUTLOOK... SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA. SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA. TUE...VFR. WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/PVN NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 12Z KLZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION UP TO AROUND 790 MB WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL BUT THE 00Z HI-RES WRF-ADVANCED RESEARCH MODEL /WRF-ARW/ AND THE LATEST RUC ARE STILL A BIT TOO SLOW BUT PICKING UP THE BEST ON THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...RUC 300-310K SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS UP ACCORDINGLY AND MENTION ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF I-40. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS CLOUD COVER AND RETURNING PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING EARLIER FORECASTED HIGHS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. CJC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ UPDATE... UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/ DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH AND COOL AIR IS POURING SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM 43 DEGREES AT WALNUT RIDGE AR TO 63 DEGREES IN MONROE COUNTY MS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND THE CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO PERHAPS I-40. THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY LATER TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES TONIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PULL OUT OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE TEMPORARY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION SPREADING MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL AGAIN WITH READINGS AROUND 60. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKER AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIP WITH IT...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMPLICATE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST HOWEVER AS MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING ACROSS NW SECTIONS WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MONDAY MORNING...LEFT SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NW TN. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER THE EARLY OCTOBER SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH SOME FROST POTENTIAL NEAR THE TN RIVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION BEGINS PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. SJM .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH HAS BEEN BETWEEN RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS NOW DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. JBR AND MEM SHOULD SEE RAIN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE AT MEM. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 3SM FOR BRIEF PERIODS...BUT PREVAILING VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5SM OR GREATER. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AR MKL AROUND 20Z...AND AT TUP AROUND 22Z. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH 5-6K FT CIGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 56 45 61 44 / 50 50 10 20 MKL 55 42 59 39 / 40 60 10 10 JBR 53 40 59 38 / 50 60 10 10 TUP 60 45 62 43 / 50 40 20 20 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND FINALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....WHILE DEEP TROUGHING WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITHIN THE TROUGHING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WEST TOWARDS NEBRASKA. UNDERNEATH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS AN AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR DULUTH. MUCH OF THIS STRATUS WAS SITUATED AT 750MB OR BELOW PER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL...MPX AND GRB. THE REASON THE DECK IS NOT A SOLID OVERCAST IS THAT THE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW COMPLETE SATURATION. IN FACT...SOME OF THE STRATUS FORMATION HAS BEEN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...NOTED BY HOLES THAT FILLED IN DURING THE MORNING. FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST ON WATER VAPOR...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 12Z THE PAS MANITOBA SOUNDING HAS RESULTED IN THE SHORTWAVE JUST PRODUCING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. 850MB TEMPS CHILLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN -5 AND -7C PER 12Z RAOBS...OR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO KEEP DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH... CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL DO A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER MINNESOTA WILL GET PUSHED DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVE IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AS WELL...EXCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THE COOL DAY TODAY...THE SETUP CERTAINLY FAVORS LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AS HAS BEEN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN COULD EVEN HIT THE UPPER TEENS. FREEZE WARNINGS THEREFORE STILL LOOK GOOD WITH THIS LIKELY BEING THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON. THE SECOND THING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DO IS TO SPREAD THE CIRRUS AND SOME MID CLOUDS SEEN UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES... DOWNSLOPING OF AIR OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF WARMER 925-850MB AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY 18Z... 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 2-4C AND -3 TO -5C RESPECTIVELY. COMBINE THESE WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH AND HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WILL HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PLUMMET INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAISING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE ARE NOTED IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY WELL UP TO THE NORTHWEST...NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF DROPPING THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE DEEP TROUGH...REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIES IT...WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS EVEN MORE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT OFF THE ROCKIES. AS SUCH...925 AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 6C AND 4C RESPECTIVELY AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESULT AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL HELP PRODUCE A MUCH WARMER NIGHT...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TRACK...DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...THOUGH... THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO HEAD EAST...LIKELY ALONG THE ONTARIO/MN BORDER. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STAYS TO OUR WEST...ONLY REACHING ALBERTA LEA BY 00Z. 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TOPPING OUT AT 12-14C AND 6-8C RESPECTIVELY. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO NEAR 850MB. ONLY CAVEAT IS THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH LOOK TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ARE REASONABLE...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO 70 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST AGAIN WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE...DIGGING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ON TOP OF THE POST-FRONTAL MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL ALREADY EXIST. SO ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GRADUALLY OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD UNTIL THIS SHORTWAVE CAN CATCH UP...ANTICIPATE A BAND OF RAIN TO DEVELOP. THIS SIGNAL OF THE BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER...WITH THE 06.12Z GFS...NAM... UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL DEPICTING IT. AS SUCH...HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO AROUND 40. FURTHER INCREASES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH...SO MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT THE FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS IN THE 40S SUGGESTED BY MAV/MET GUIDANCE SEEM REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS DO GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 0C BY 00Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH ENDS UP MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 06.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ABOUT A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH THE CURRENT DEEP TROUGH LIFTING OUT ON FRIDAY. WE STILL HAVE ONE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH DROPPING THE TROUGH PRIOR TO LIFT-OUT...PROGGED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY. AFTER FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS EJECTION OCCURS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH THE LATEST 06.12Z GFS THE FASTEST AMONGST ALL MODELS AND PAST 1-2 DAYS OF RUNS OF THE MODEL. THE GFS HAS THIS DEEP LOW LIFTING UP INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z SUNDAY. EJECTING UPPER LOWS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ARE ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC FOR MODELS...SINCE THEY HINGE ON UPPER TROUGHS CROSSING THE PACIFIC. THEREFORE...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT... THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A SLOWER IDEA ENDS UP PANNING OUT PER MODEL BIASES. IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR COMES WITH THIS RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -4C. THUS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS TODAY OR TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE THURSDAY SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WE GET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO LIMITED SPACING BETWEEN THE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS FRONT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURGE OF 4-6C 850MB AIR IS PROGGED TO COME INTO THE AREA ON STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. SO WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-90. ANOTHER COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND -4C AT 12Z. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS APPROACH AND SPREADING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE ALL DUE TO WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COMING INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MORE REFINEMENT OF THESE CHANCES WILL COME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TOO WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS BY SATURDAY STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY 5 OR SO DEGREES...NOT LIKE THE 15-20 AS OF LATE. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES IN THE 3 TO 4 KFT RANGE. PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 13 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KTS POSSIBLE AT KRST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MVFR CLOUD DECK BECOMING SCATTERED AND RISING TO AROUND 5 KFT AND DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLIGHTS EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. PLAN ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE 9 TO 14 KT RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SETTING THE STAGE FOR THESE CONDITIONS IS THE MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A KILLING FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 12-22 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE LOW...THANKS TO MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE RECENT COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...LINGERING COLD AIR THAT ONLY SLOWLY MODIFIES WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE... LOWEST SOUTH AND WEST OF I-94. THEREFORE...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD BE THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. FOR MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH. HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS SHOULD BRING UP A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY COUNTERACT IT BY JUMPING INTO THE 60S. THEREFORE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT...LOWEST ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY COOL AND ESPECIALLY POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS... CONDITIONS AGAIN JUST LOOK NEAR CRITICAL. THE CLOUDS COULD BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC BY KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. PER COORDINATION WITH AREA FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF I-90 ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012 WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041- 053>055-061. MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-088-096. IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ011-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...WETENKAMP FIRE WEATHER...AJ