Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/06/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1242 PM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...STRATUS STILL SLOW TO ERODE ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR AND MAY
TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM AND CURRENT HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS
LOOK A BIT TOO WARM AND LOWERED TEMPS MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S
MOST AREAS. HAVE ENDED FREEZE WARNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
STILL SHOWING STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR
AND ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH SOME ERRODING ALONG PALMER DIVIDE.
MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS THIS AM.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS HANGING ON A BIT LONGER THAT PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE BKN-OVC AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH
17Z. BOTH HRRR AND RUC INDICATING STRATUS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AT
THAT TIME. REST OF TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 40 TO 50 DEGREES
COOLER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TODAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD AIRMASS DID NOT MAKE IT
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE
A MILD DAY TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THEN
NORTHERN ROCKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THIS TROUGH
NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW WEAK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70.
LONG TERM...UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVEN AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON THE UNDER SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 6C ALONG THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS TO NEAR 0C IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR OUT NEAR THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. MODELS SHOW THE LEFT EXIT QUAD OF A 110KT JET
PASSING OVER NERN COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY WHICH PROVIDED
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD
EITHER BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SUB-CLOUD
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...
PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY IN
COVERAGE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT..PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EAST OF THE MTNS AND ESPECIALLY OUT ACRS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING JET. HAVE INTRODUCED A WIDE SWATH
OF 50 PCT POPS ACROSS WELD...MORGAN...LOGAN...PHILLIPS AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
MORNING. WE/RE TALKING ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON GRASSY
SURFACES. COULD JUST AS EASILY GONE WITH LIKELY POPS OUT THAT
WAY...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP STILL REMAINS IN DOUBT.
ON SATURDAY...SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED FOR THE
PLAINS ARE BARELY ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGS IN AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS. MEANWHILE...
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD FEEL LITTLE IMPACT
FROM THIS GREAT PLAINS COLD AIR MASS. POPS ON THE WEST SLOPE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE MOST PART. THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SEE PRECIP SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE JET AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LIFT ALSO SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE NAM IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS A COUPLE INCHES BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN FROM WYOMING.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE COLD AIR FLUSHES OUT STARTING SUNDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILING HEIGHTS OF 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF
COLORADO WILL KEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS
MAY HELP LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S
MOST AREAS. HAVE ENDED FREEZE WARNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
STILL SHOWING STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR
AND ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH SOME ERRODING ALONG PALMER DIVIDE.
MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS THIS AM.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...STRATUS HANGING ON A BIT LONGER THAT PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE BKN-OVC AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH
17Z. BOTH HRRR AND RUC INDICATING STRATUS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AT
THAT TIME. REST OF TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 40 TO 50 DEGREES
COOLER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TODAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD AIRMASS DID NOT MAKE IT
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE
A MILD DAY TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THEN
NORTHERN ROCKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THIS TROUGH
NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW WEAK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70.
LONG TERM...UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVEN AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON THE UNDER SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 6C ALONG THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS TO NEAR 0C IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR OUT NEAR THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. MODELS SHOW THE LEFT EXIT QUAD OF A 110KT JET
PASSING OVER NERN COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY WHICH PROVIDED
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD
EITHER BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SUB-CLOUD
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...
PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY IN
COVERAGE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT..PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EAST OF THE MTNS AND ESPECIALLY OUT ACRS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING JET. HAVE INTRODUCED A WIDE SWATH
OF 50 PCT POPS ACROSS WELD...MORGAN...LOGAN...PHILLIPS AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
MORNING. WE/RE TALKING ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON GRASSY
SURFACES. COULD JUST AS EASILY GONE WITH LIKELY POPS OUT THAT
WAY...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP STILL REMAINS IN DOUBT.
ON SATURDAY...SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED FOR THE
PLAINS ARE BARELY ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGS IN AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS. MEANWHILE...
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD FEEL LITTLE IMPACT
FROM THIS GREAT PLAINS COLD AIR MASS. POPS ON THE WEST SLOPE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE MOST PART. THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SEE PRECIP SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE JET AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LIFT ALSO SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE NAM IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS A COUPLE INCHES BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN FROM WYOMING.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE COLD AIR FLUSHES OUT STARTING SUNDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILING HEIGHTS OF 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF
COLORADO WILL KEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS
MAY HELP LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
445 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN
A PERIOD OF CHILLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID WEEK AS AN EARLY SEASON
CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE RGN...THE BAROCLINIC TROF WITH ATTENDANT
SHRTWV ENERGY DEAMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEPER
CYCLONIC SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRNT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE AS SHOWERS COME TO
AN END. EXPECTING THE BETTER RGN OF SHOWERS TO PREVAIL NEWD THRU
CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS
TRANSLATING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LINE OVER THE HUDSON VLY RGN...WRF MDL
SOLNS SUGGEST A GRADUAL TURNING TO DUE EAST. WHILE NOT TOTALLY ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS IT/LL BE INTERESTING THE OUTCOME OF THE LINE
AS IT MOVES E OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS PER
12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. WILL USHER LIKELY POPS...BUT ANTICIPATE THE
STRENGTH OF THE LINE TO DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESSION /FOLLOWING
THE 16Z HRRR CLOSELY/.
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR COUPLED WITH HIGH PRES SHOULD ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND IMPROVE...YET ABUNDANT REMNANT
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN. THOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WITH
WEAK FLOW TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE RGN AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO OR AT THE DWPT /MINS
AROUND THE MID 50S/. ANTICIPATING VSBYS DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS IN AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEARING LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF INTO THE LATE MORNING PD. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. DEEP MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LYR SHOULD PREVAIL UP TO H85 INTO THE AFTN PD WHERE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 10-12C. MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
UNDER LIGHT W/SWLY FLOW. FCST GUIDANCE IN CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE
PD DRY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
WILL KEEP THE PD DRY AS THE BETTER FORCING LIES ACROSS THE ERN GRT
LKS RGN AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
HIGH PRES. W/SWLY FLOW PREVAILS USHERING A REBOUND OF SFC MOISTURE
FROM DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...DWPTS INCREASING INTO AND AROUND
THE LOW 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG INTO THE SAT MORNING PD /THE BETTER CHCS FOR FOG ALONG THE SRN
SHORELINE OF NEW ENGLAND/. A MILD NGT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID-
UPR 50S /LOW 60S PSBL ALONG THE S COASTLINE/.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY BUT STILL WARM AND BREEZY COASTAL PLAIN
* CHILLY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT
* DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA WILL PROMOTE BROAD DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
RESULTING IN A CHILLY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ONE SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NE FROM THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS BAROCLINIC WAVE LIFTING NE OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GFS
DEVELOPS THE STORM FURTHER OFFSHORE WHILE NAM/ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT...
GT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SNE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED
MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS FALLING IN POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO W
ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO SAT EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE
DECREASES AND OUTRUNS THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING. PARTIAL CLEARING
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. A WARM AND BREEZY DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT COOLER 60S NW ZONES.
SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW MOVING UP THE COAST.
PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WHICH
COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORNING MAY BE DRY WITH RAIN
BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. A CHILLY DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...BUT MAY BRIEFLY REACH LOWER
60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE FALLING AFTER ONSET OF RAIN.
MONDAY...
DRY AND COOL AS STORM PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO SUPPORTS MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AND SOUTHEAST AK. DOWNSTREAM
THIS RESULTS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN
EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOWS PROVIDING REINFORCING INTRUSIONS OF COOLER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND ECENS REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ALONG WITH AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW AND
SURPRISINGLY THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THUS ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AND POPS THIS PERIOD.
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...
AFTER A CHILLY START MON NGT/TUE AM SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION
BEGINS TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT...THEN
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK. FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE/AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOW WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON MEASURABLE PRECIP AND ITS TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
FOR THU AND FRI BEHIND STRONG CLIPPER LOW...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT POST FRONTAL AIRMASS APPEARS COLDER THAN MON/S
AIRMASS...WITH 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ADVERTISING 850
TEMPS FROM 0C TO TO -4C LATE LATE NEXT WEEK!
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO FRI MORN...GRADUALLY CLEARING W TO E
THRU THE LATE OVRNGT. WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE -RA LIFT THRU THE
RGN AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARDS FRI
MORN FOR ERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSRA...BUT WATCHING
CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER ERN PA. IN REGARDS TO VSBYS
ANTICIPATING INTERMITTENT MVFR-IFR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY WITH
RA/+RA. DIFFICULT TO TIME THRU THE DAY...BUT HAVE GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVNG PD
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG /CHCS LESSER AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE W/. AFTER FRI MORN...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH
CIGS LINGERING ALONG THE E SHORES. MORE TOWARDS FRI EVNG...MID-LVL
CIGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW...REMAINING VFR.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS SPECIFICS REGARDING TO VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A
MIX OF LIFR TO MVFR THRU THE PD.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MUCH LIKE KBOS...CHALLENGES PERTAIN TO VSBYS. WILL BE WATCHING
TSRA CLOSELY ACROSS ERN PA AND IF THIS WILL ADVECT TOWARDS EVNG
INTO THE TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREFRONTAL SW WIND GUSTS REACHING
25 KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. DIMINISHING WINDS SAT NIGHT SHIFTING TO NW.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF COASTAL LOW. CURRENTLY FORECASTING SUB SCA CONDITIONS BUT COULD
END UP WITH NE GUSTS REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS DEPENDING ON
TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES LIKELY BEGINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPING SSW WINDS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY
EXPECTED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...KJC/NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
443 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH
AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 443 PM...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...AS A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE CELLS. SBCAPE FROM SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND
250-500 J/KG IN THIS LIMITED AREA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER.
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH CONNECTION TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN PA/NY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD AND ALSO SHIFT
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME...AND IS MORE OF A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY THAN
THERMAL BOUNDARY.
SO UNTIL THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT/EASTERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HUMID CONDITIONS...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
UNTIL THE SHOWERS END.
SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOG WILL
FORM AND WILL BE DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AS OPPOSED TO 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHOULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ONCE FOG/LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING. BETTER MIXING AND A
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT AROUND +12C AT 850MB IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND TO SUNSHINE AND MIXING AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW BY
WARMING INTO THE MID 70S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 70S
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE COOLER TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CLOUDS
APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS INITIAL DECAYING FRONT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE FAST ON ITS HEELS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AND MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WILL
MENTION ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND COULD VARY QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NOT REACHING AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. FROM ALBANY NORTH AND
WEST TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MID TO
UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE YESTERDAY.
WILL MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SMALL AND
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST
FORMATION DESPITE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION AS RATHER LARGE
THERMAL PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
A LARGE RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WHICH WILL RUN ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE.
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS THE HUDSON BAY
LOW EVOLVES. ONE PIECE OF POTENT ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES AND ENTER INTO THE CONFLUENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE NATION AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE MID WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
UNFOLDING PRECIP EVENT FOR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES REFLECT THAT A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT Q-VECTORS OVER THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL INCREASE POPS BUT KEEP THOSE VALUES
BELOW LIKELY THRESHOLDS AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN. 850MB
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DROP BACK AT OR BELOW 0C WHERE SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THE WHITE BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...A LARGE AND ELONGATED REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MODIFY THE THERMAL PROFILES
WITH A WARMING TREND AS THOSE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER...AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH MANY ENSEMBLES IN
AGREEMENT. SO WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE AS A RESULT OF LINGERING
SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AS WELL WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 18-20Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND A BRIEF RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...WITH KGFL AND KPSF
SEEING FOG ONSET AS EARLY AS 05Z...WITH KALB AND KPOU A FEW HOURS
LATER.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE MORNING MIXING QUICKLY ERODES ANY REMAINING LOW STRATUS/FOG
BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 4-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR...MVFR/IFR POSS WITH CHC -SHRA.
TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH WET/SOGGY GROUND
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN PERIODIC UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WHERE A FEW
PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS OCCUR. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN RISES OF UP TO TWO FEET ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS.
A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVE BACK ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THIS TIME...AROUND ONE
TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY.
ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MORE RAINFALL MOVES BACK IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BRING GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN
A PERIOD OF CHILLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID WEEK AS AN EARLY SEASON
CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE RGN...THE BAROCLINIC TROF WITH ATTENDANT
SHRTWV ENERGY DEAMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEEPER
CYCLONIC SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRNT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE AS SHOWERS COME TO
AN END. EXPECTING THE BETTER RGN OF SHOWERS TO PREVAIL NEWD THRU
CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS
TRANSLATING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LINE OVER THE HUDSON VLY RGN...WRF MDL
SOLNS SUGGEST A GRADUAL TURNING TO DUE EAST. WHILE NOT TOTALLY ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS IT/LL BE INTERESTING THE OUTCOME OF THE LINE
AS IT MOVES E OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS PER
12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. WILL USHER LIKELY POPS...BUT ANTICIPATE THE
STRENGTH OF THE LINE TO DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESSION /FOLLOWING
THE 16Z HRRR CLOSELY/.
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR COUPLED WITH HIGH PRES SHOULD ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND IMPROVE...YET ABUNDANT REMNANT
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN. THOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WITH
WEAK FLOW TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE RGN AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO OR AT THE DWPT /MINS
AROUND THE MID 50S/. ANTICIPATING VSBYS DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS IN AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEARING LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF INTO THE LATE MORNING PD. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. DEEP MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LYR SHOULD PREVAIL UP TO H85 INTO THE AFTN PD WHERE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 10-12C. MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
UNDER LIGHT W/SWLY FLOW. FCST GUIDANCE IN CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE
PD DRY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
WILL KEEP THE PD DRY AS THE BETTER FORCING LIES ACROSS THE ERN GRT
LKS RGN AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
HIGH PRES. W/SWLY FLOW PREVAILS USHERING A REBOUND OF SFC MOISTURE
FROM DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...DWPTS INCREASING INTO AND AROUND
THE LOW 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG INTO THE SAT MORNING PD /THE BETTER CHCS FOR FOG ALONG THE SRN
SHORELINE OF NEW ENGLAND/. A MILD NGT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID-
UPR 50S /LOW 60S PSBL ALONG THE S COASTLINE/.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY BUT STILL WARM AND BREEZY COASTAL PLAIN
* CHILLY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT
* DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA WILL PROMOTE BROAD DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
RESULTING IN A CHILLY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ONE SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NE FROM THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS BAROCLINIC WAVE LIFTING NE OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GFS
DEVELOPS THE STORM FURTHER OFFSHORE WHILE NAM/ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT...
GT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SNE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED
MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS FALLING IN POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO W
ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO SAT EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE
DECREASES AND OUTRUNS THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING. PARTIAL CLEARING
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. A WARM AND BREEZY DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT COOLER 60S NW ZONES.
SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW MOVING UP THE COAST.
PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WHICH
COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORNING MAY BE DRY WITH RAIN
BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. A CHILLY DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...BUT MAY BRIEFLY REACH LOWER
60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE FALLING AFTER ONSET OF RAIN.
MONDAY...
DRY AND COOL AS STORM PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO SUPPORTS MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AND SOUTHEAST AK. DOWNSTREAM
THIS RESULTS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN
EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOWS PROVIDING REINFORCING INTRUSIONS OF COOLER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND ECENS REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ALONG WITH AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW AND
SURPRISINGLY THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THUS ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AND POPS THIS PERIOD.
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...
AFTER A CHILLY START MON NGT/TUE AM SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION
BEGINS TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT...THEN
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK. FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE/AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER LOW WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON MEASURABLE PRECIP AND ITS TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
FOR THU AND FRI BEHIND STRONG CLIPPER LOW...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT POST FRONTAL AIRMASS APPEARS COLDER THAN MON/S
AIRMASS...WITH 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ADVERTISING 850
TEMPS FROM 0C TO TO -4C LATE LATE NEXT WEEK!
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO FRI MORN...GRADUALLY CLEARING W TO E
THRU THE LATE OVRNGT. WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE -RA LIFT THRU THE
RGN AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARDS FRI
MORN FOR ERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSRA...BUT WATCHING
CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER ERN PA. IN REGARDS TO VSBYS
ANTICIPATING INTERMITTENT MVFR-IFR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY WITH
RA/+RA. DIFFICULT TO TIME THRU THE DAY...BUT HAVE GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF VSBYS DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVNG PD
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG /CHCS LESSER AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE W/. AFTER FRI MORN...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH
CIGS LINGERING ALONG THE E SHORES. MORE TOWARDS FRI EVNG...MID-LVL
CIGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW...REMAINING VFR.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS SPECIFICS REGARDING TO VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A
MIX OF LIFR TO MVFR THRU THE PD.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MUCH LIKE KBOS...CHALLENGES PERTAIN TO VSBYS. WILL BE WATCHING
TSRA CLOSELY ACROSS ERN PA AND IF THIS WILL ADVECT TOWARDS EVNG
INTO THE TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREFRONTAL SW WIND GUSTS REACHING
25 KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. DIMINISHING WINDS SAT NIGHT SHIFTING TO NW.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF COASTAL LOW. CURRENTLY FORECASTING SUB SCA CONDITIONS BUT COULD
END UP WITH NE GUSTS REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS DEPENDING ON
TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW.
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES LIKELY BEGINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPING SSW WINDS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY
EXPECTED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD TIMING DEPICTION
(EVEN IF THE EXTENT IS OVERDONE). GRIDS AND FCST HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME IN
2012 WE WILL HAVE TO TYPE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMOVE THE 70
PLUS DEW POINTS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST
KEPT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS CLOUDS ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER
EASTERN PA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO NOSE UP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND, MAINLY FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S IN OUR REGION. WITH THE LIGHT WIND
AND THE RECENT RAIN AND HUMIDITY, SOME PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED
FOR LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND +12C AT 850 HPA RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD DAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEAK UPPER AND SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE EAST DURING SATURDAY. AN ONGOING PATTERN CHANGE
ALOFT WILL BRING LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT DURING SATURDAY. ORGANIZED PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TO OUR
WEST...EARLY SATURDAY FALLS APART AS THE FRONT SEEMS TO OUTRUN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHC RANGE FOR SAT AT THIS
POINT. THE BETTER CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS FOR SAT THEN CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. SAT WILL BE THE
LAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR AWHILE WITH SOME MID 70S
ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 60S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S OVER THE
DELMARVA AREA. THESE READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A BATCH OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT SUN. LOW LIKELY POPS WILL
BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. QPF COULD BE
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
WITH READINGS MODERATING BY WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL
WHETHER IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD OF JUST PATCHY...SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE THEN ANOTHER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. CHC POPS WERE
INSERTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AT OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE SKY CONTINUES TO CLEAR. THE
WIND SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.
FOR TONIGHT, A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. IF THE WIND FAVORS ANY DIRECTION, IT WILL
BE THE WEST. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE
INDICATED SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KILG AND
KMIV. FOR KPNE, KPHL AND KACY WHICH TEND TO BE LESS AFFECTED BY
RADIATION FOG, WE HAVE INCLUDED NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND
AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER SATURDAY.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR AT TIMES.
MON-TUE...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`GIGI/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1014 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO ROUGHLY THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER BY
10 AM...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING OFF BEHIND IT. LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE PLACES IT NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY NOON AND
APPROACHING THE I-57 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH IT NEAR I-55 INSTEAD. ALL THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POST-FRONTAL SO FAR...AND EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
IOWA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EARLIER FORECAST FOR INCREASING POPS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON STILL
LOOKS GOOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR...
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. A NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AWIPS TIME-OF-
ARRIVAL TOOL BRINGS IT INTO KPIA AROUND 1845Z AND KBMI AROUND 20Z.
WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT THESE SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE LINE IS SOMEWHAT BROKEN. ADDITIONAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN CONCERN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH A BAND OF RAIN
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE
NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS FAVOR THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR AS
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY IT...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06-12Z AND
PERSISTING INTO MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND...AND HAVE ADDED CEILINGS
AROUND 2500 FEET LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...NAM SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1200 FEET...SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 234 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS FINALLY BEING EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
06Z/1AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
EAST OF I-55...HOWEVER THESE WILL PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD INTO
INDIANA BY 12Z/7AM. AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING THE DAY TO START
OFF MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING. VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL TRACK E/NE TODAY...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PLACING IT ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF CHICAGO TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS A DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE LINE
DURING THE EVENING...AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. GIVEN STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WAVE...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES GREATLY OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING
FURTHER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED THIS POST-FRONTAL
RAINFALL FURTHER NORTHWARD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE GREATEST
NORTHWARD TREND. WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT NAM IN
THE SHORT-TERM...WHICH DEVELOPS RAIN ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ACCORDINGLY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY...AS FRONT MAKES ONLY GRADUAL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
700MB...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE. WITH
RAIN AND COOL N/NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
AS UPPER WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...FRONT WILL GET PUSHED
FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72
DURING THE EVENING...THEN JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE HEART OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE CHAMPAIGN AREA WESTWARD TO
JACKSONVILLE...WHERE AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
COMMON. THE LIGHTEST RAINFALL OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
WILL OCCUR FURTHER NORTH FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION CONCERNING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIFT PRECIP
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SE KILX CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW KEEP THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z 4 OCT ECMWF BRINGS THE
PRECIP MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
E/SE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. MAIN
STORY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS...AS
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG/NORTHWEST
OF I-55.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S. AFTER THAT...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING THE 6 TO 8C RANGE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY TUESDAY. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA...FOLLOWED BY
COOL/DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1015 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1014 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO ROUGHLY THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER BY
10 AM...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING OFF BEHIND IT. LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE PLACES IT NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY NOON AND
APPROACHING THE I-57 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH IT NEAR I-55 INSTEAD. ALL THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POST-FRONTAL SO FAR...AND EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
IOWA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EARLIER FORECAST FOR INCREASING POPS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON STILL
LOOKS GOOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR...
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINAL AIRPORTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/7 AM FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEEPENING 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN IA AND NW MO WILL TRACK SE TO
THE IL RIVER NEAR PIA BY 21Z/4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND TO DEC AND
CMI AROUND SUNSET BETWEEN 00Z-01Z. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ABOVE 7K FT TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS IL LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SSW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING TO BECOME BREEZY SW AFTER 15Z/10 AM TODAY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 22-27 KTS BY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO PIA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR I-55 FOR BMI/SPI BY SUNSET AND TO DEC AND
CMI EARLY THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCTS AT PIA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY
IS LATE TODAY AND VCSH REMAINDER OF CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. SW WINDS
TURN NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DIMINISH TO 8-14 KTS THIS
EVENING AND NNW 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT TO HAVE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
DURING OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
ABOVE 5 MILES/3K FT.
KH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 234 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS FINALLY BEING EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
06Z/1AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
EAST OF I-55...HOWEVER THESE WILL PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD INTO
INDIANA BY 12Z/7AM. AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING THE DAY TO START
OFF MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING. VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL TRACK E/NE TODAY...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PLACING IT ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF CHICAGO TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS A DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE LINE
DURING THE EVENING...AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. GIVEN STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WAVE...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES GREATLY OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING
FURTHER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED THIS POST-FRONTAL
RAINFALL FURTHER NORTHWARD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE GREATEST
NORTHWARD TREND. WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT NAM IN
THE SHORT-TERM...WHICH DEVELOPS RAIN ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ACCORDINGLY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY...AS FRONT MAKES ONLY GRADUAL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
700MB...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE. WITH
RAIN AND COOL N/NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
AS UPPER WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...FRONT WILL GET PUSHED
FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72
DURING THE EVENING...THEN JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE HEART OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE CHAMPAIGN AREA WESTWARD TO
JACKSONVILLE...WHERE AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
COMMON. THE LIGHTEST RAINFALL OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
WILL OCCUR FURTHER NORTH FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION CONCERNING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIFT PRECIP
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SE KILX CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW KEEP THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z 4 OCT ECMWF BRINGS THE
PRECIP MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
E/SE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. MAIN
STORY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS...AS
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG/NORTHWEST
OF I-55.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S. AFTER THAT...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING THE 6 TO 8C RANGE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BY TUESDAY. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA...FOLLOWED BY
COOL/DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH REX BLOCK STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC. THE NEAREST FEATURE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH W/NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND IS NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARDS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST DESPITE WINDS AROUND 15-25KT AND
MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK.
THE MAJOR FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS ON THE COLD
TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN OVER THE PLAINS AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE AREA. I HAVE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD IT WILL REALLY GET
CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS AROUND 10KT ACROSS
THE WEST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET AT
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE. I AM HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUANCE OF ANY PRODUCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S. ON SATURDAY LOCATIONS IN THE WEST MAY NOT
BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS WITH PRECIPITATION AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A HARD FREEZE WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT A KILLING FREEZE
APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COINCIDING WITH A COUPLED 300MB JET
STRUCTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. NAM/SREF WOULD ACTUALLY
SUPPORT SOME MESOSCALE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A H7 TROUGH OVER NE
COLORADO...AND ARE PRODUCING HIGHER QPF VALUES AS A RESULT. IM NOT
SURE ABOUT THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PHASE CHANGE WILL BE
COMPLICATED...WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS
IN THE WEST...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THIS
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IF THE NAM/SREF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY.
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRUSHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AS SURFACE CANADIAN
AIR IS PERIODICALLY REFRESHED AFTER EACH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS/LIFT DURING PERIOD WILL STAY TO THE NORTH.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AFTER A POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE THAT MORNING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STARTING AROUND 0C SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO AROUND 10C BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE HOVERING IN THE 8-14C RANGE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S MONDAY AND 40S FOR TUE/WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE STRATUS DECK
AROUND 5000KFT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS NEAR HILL CITY AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. AT THE MOMENT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS...AND SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN VFR RANGE EVEN IF IT WERE TO
DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20KT AT BOTH
TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH REX BLOCK STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC. THE NEAREST FEATURE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH W/NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND IS NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARDS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST DESPITE WINDS AROUND 15-25KT AND
MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK.
THE MAJOR FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS ON THE COLD
TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN OVER THE PLAINS AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE AREA. I HAVE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD IT WILL REALLY GET
CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS AROUND 10KT ACROSS
THE WEST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET AT
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE. I AM HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUANCE OF ANY PRODUCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S. ON SATURDAY LOCATIONS IN THE WEST MAY NOT
BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS WITH PRECIPITATION AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A HARD FREEZE WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT A KILLING FREEZE
APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COINCIDING WITH A COUPLED 300MB JET
STRUCTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. NAM/SREF WOULD ACTUALLY
SUPPORT SOME MESOSCALE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A H7 TROUGH OVER NE
COLORADO...AND ARE PRODUCING HIGHER QPF VALUES AS A RESULT. IM NOT
SURE ABOUT THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PHASE CHANGE WILL BE
COMPLICATED...WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS
IN THE WEST...WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THIS
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IF THE NAM/SREF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY.
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRUSHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AS SURFACE CANADIAN
AIR IS PERIODICALLY REFRESHED AFTER EACH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS/LIFT DURING PERIOD WILL STAY TO THE NORTH.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AFTER A POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE THAT MORNING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STARTING AROUND 0C SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO AROUND 10C BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE HOVERING IN THE 8-14C RANGE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S MONDAY AND 40S FOR TUE/WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT WED OCT 3 2012
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NEAR KMCK WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY 06Z AND
WITH COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT NO
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30KTS OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1006 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND BRING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SOON TO REACH PIT. JUST SOME ISO SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG
FRONT...AS MAIN RAIN SHIELD REMAINS BEHIND FRONT. BOUNDARY IS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE RAIN AREA IS MOVING NE BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO TIMING OF POPS AND
ALSO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE...RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA...COUPLED WITH RECENT WRF-NMM AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT THE MAIN ADIABATIC COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE CAN BE A THIN
BAND OF SCATTERED PREFRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD
BE LIGHT. CONCUR WITH HPC QPF THAT RAIN AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING CAN BE UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES...PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS...TO BECOME
NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH LOWS TONIGHT DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
DUE TO SHALLOW BUT VIGOROUS VERTICAL MIXING IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH DAYTIME
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE ENSUING LOW PRESSURE WAVE
ALONG THE EXITED COLD FRONT WILL AT MOST ONLY MAINLY AFFECT WV-MD
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES INTO MONDAY...AND MAY PROMOTE
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
DUE TO THE COLDNESS OF THE SURFACE LAYER...ITS POSSIBLE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THE GROUND WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY IMPACT.
FORECASTED SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES USING BLEND OF GFS NAM AND ECMWF
MOS...THAT SHOWED VALUES GENERALLY 7 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY PERHAPS 10 TO 13 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...FROST AND FREEZE PROSPECTS WILL DEPEND REMAINING
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND...SO HELD OFF ON ANY CORRESPONDING
ISSUANCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM LAKE
HURON...SKIRTING THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. THE LOW SHOULD BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS READING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW
SHOULD SWEEP A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE STRATUS WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE VFR CEILINGS...EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS AS
RAIN MOVES IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. DROPPED CIGS DOWN TO 1KFT AT FKL
AND DUJ...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO IFR AT THIS POINT. WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL PRIMARILY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT
WIND SHIFT BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO FALL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
CIGS REMAINING AT A VFR LEVEL.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND BRING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EVE UPDATE. SOME TIMING CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
POPS AND ADJUSTED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE...RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA...COUPLED WITH RECENT WRF-NMM AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT THE MAIN ADIABATIC COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE CAN BE A THIN
BAND OF SCATTERED PREFRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD
BE LIGHT. CONCUR WITH HPC QPF THAT RAIN AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING CAN BE UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES...PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS...TO BECOME
NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH LOWS TONIGHT DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
DUE TO SHALLOW BUT VIGOROUS VERTICAL MIXING IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH DAYTIME
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE ENSUING LOW PRESSURE WAVE
ALONG THE EXITED COLD FRONT WILL AT MOST ONLY MAINLY AFFECT WV-MD
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES INTO MONDAY...AND MAY PROMOTE
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
DUE TO THE COLDNESS OF THE SURFACE LAYER...ITS POSSIBLE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THE GROUND WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY IMPACT.
FORECASTED SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES USING BLEND OF GFS NAM AND ECMWF
MOS...THAT SHOWED VALUES GENERALLY 7 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY PERHAPS 10 TO 13 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...FROST AND FREEZE PROSPECTS WILL DEPEND REMAINING
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND...SO HELD OFF ON ANY CORRESPONDING
ISSUANCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM LAKE
HURON...SKIRTING THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. THE LOW SHOULD BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS READING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW
SHOULD SWEEP A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE STRATUS WITH THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE VFR CEILINGS...EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS AS
RAIN MOVES IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. DROPPED CIGS DOWN TO 1KFT AT FKL
AND DUJ...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO IFR AT THIS POINT. WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL PRIMARILY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT
WIND SHIFT BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO FALL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
CIGS REMAINING AT A VFR LEVEL.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
157 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL
PA...MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH WITH THE HELP OF THE LIFTING LOW
COULD HELP TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN RIDGES TONIGHT. A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS SHOULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE IN ADDITION TO THE LIFTING VORT MAX. NO
FURTHER EXPANSION OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT FINALLY
REACHES OHIO. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUD DECK AND
PROVIDE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL KEPT TEMPERATURES A
BIT ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV...WHERE
RESIDENCE TIME UNDER CLOUD DECK SHOULD KEEP THOSE LOCATIONS
WARMER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT BUT TIMING ISSUES IN HOW QUICKLY IT CROSSES THE
REGION AND THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE HAVE
CAUSED SOME INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE DECIDED TO PUSH
BACK POPS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEW RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND THE
12Z ECMWF AND HAVE ALSO CUT BACK POPS QUICKER FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH WILL BRING THEM BACK IN THE WITH CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND WAVE. STILL...WITH THE LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING...INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY WEAK SO KEPT THUNDER
OUT FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONSENSUS OF RECENT ECENS AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW LINGERING
POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEVELOPED A LOW PRESSURE WAVE BECOMES
ACROSS VIRGINIA. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS TOO LONG SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO
ALLOW A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL THEN PROMOTE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE REGARDING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE VALUES NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OBS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MDL TRENDS
INDICATE THE MID LVL CLD BLANKET OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY SHOULD CONT
TO FADE AS THE NGT PROGRESSES...LEAVING A THINNING CS CANOPY TO
ACCOMPANY THE APPRCH OF A WEAKENING SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE MIDWEST.
THIS TREND WOULD FAVOR AN INCRS IN RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL AS IS
EVIDENT IN SOME OF THE MIDNGT OBS ARND THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE
EVE UPR AIR PLOT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH NAM AND RAP MDL SNDINGS
INDICATE A NEGATIVE HYDROLAPSE AND HIGH CONDENDSATION PRES DEFICITS
IN THE BNDRY LYR. HENCE...IFR FOG WL NOT BE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
MVFR WL BE MENTIONED AT PORTS NEAREST THE WATER SOURCES AS PER
AFOREMENTIONED OB-TRENDS...CROSSOVER TEMPS...AND THE NAM SFC COND
PRES PROGNOSIS.
AT ANY RATE...GENL VFR WL QUICKLY DOMINATE AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT THE
MIDWRN SHRTWV WL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND INCRS WIND SPEED OVR
THE UPR OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS DRY PASSAGE. LOOK FOR GUSTS IN THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTN.
.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICITION IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY
NGT/EARLY SATURDAY CDFNT. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS STRATOCU AND
SHRA ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACRS
TH GREAT LAKES AND OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTN WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF
KINL. COLD FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN ISOLD SHRA FORM THIS AFTN WITH EVEN TSRA. MAIN
AREA WAS ON KEWEENAW BUT JUST WITHIN LAST 1 HR ANOTHER LINE OF SHRA
HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTHEAST CWA. DEEP DRYING
WRAPPING IN ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF SHRA/TSRA KICKED ON WITHIN THE BETTER
LR/S AND ALSO ON LEADING EDGE OF H85 FRONTOGENESIS. OTHERWISE ONCE
PESKY FOG HELPED OUT BY MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN BURNED OFF...IT HAS
BECOME NICE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND EVEN SOME
LOWER 70S. THAT WILL BE LAST 70 DEGREES FOR POSSIBLY THIS FALL
THOUGH AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING IN ONCE THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA
MOVES TO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND COLDER AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH FRIDAY...DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG SNOW ACCUMS. WIDESPREAD SNOW
ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IN MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND SFC LOW NEVER REALLY MAKES IT INTO CWA...INSTEAD LIFTING MORE
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. INSTEAD...NORTHWEST CWA GRADUALLY GETS INTO
A REGIME WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BLO 10KFT AND WSW BLYR
WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS IN
MOIST LAYER ARE WARMER THAN -8C UNTIL THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. UPSHOT
IS THAT INITIAL PRECIP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR NW CWA WILL
BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERHAPS REALLY SMALL SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN
AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT. AFTER EARLY EVENING POPS EAST...RESTRICTED
POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT/CYCLONIC FLOW MOISTURE TO KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS REST OF AREA STAYS IN UNFAVORABLE WSW WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS.
WINDS IN BLYR LATE TONIGHT PUSH TOWARD 30 MPH SO EXPECT WINDS NW CWA
TO INCREASE LATE. SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OVER REST OF CWA. SKIES MAY
EVEN CLEAR OUT SOME IN THE CNTRL AND EAST OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME.
A RATHER MISERABLE DAY IS IN STORE FOR KEWEENAW ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING DEPTH TO MOISTURE WITH MOISTURE PUSHING COLDER THAN
-10C BY AFTN SO SHOULD SEE MORE AND MORE SNOW MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY. BLYR TEMPS REMAIN WARM IN THE UPR 30S AND LOWER 40S...SO
EVEN IF PRECIP CHANGES TO MOSTLY SNOW DURING THE DAY /WOULD OCCUR
BASED ON WBZERO HEIGHTS FALLING WELL BLO 1000 FT AGL/ LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUM SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW
AS ONLY PTYPE WILL BE ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA. SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT...SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET MOST OTHER AREAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING THOUGH A BIT BREEZY. BY FAR...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND
ON THE KEWEENAW WITH FAVORED WESTERLY WINDS. MIXED LAYER WINDS
EASILY TOP OUT OVER 35 KTS AND TOP OF MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS PUSHING WELL OVER 40 KTS. WINDS ARE ALSO
STRONG ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON. FAVORED WEST WIND
DIRECTION AND SUCH STRONG WINDS IN MIXED LAYER IN FACE OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS FREQUENT GUSTS ON FRIDAY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA REACHING WIND ADVY LEVEL /39 KT OR 45
MPH/. WIND ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR KEWEENAW. FOR THOSE OTHER AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR ADVY LEVEL WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE NOT AS FREQUENT...SO DID
NOT INCLUDE THOSE AREAS IN ADVY AT THIS TIME.
BY MID-LATE AFTN ON FRIDAY...925MB-850MB WINDS VEER MORE WNW WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE OF CWA INTO CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL MOIST FLOW. EXPECT
WX REGIME OVER KEWEENAW TO BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ALL WESTERN AND POSSIBLE NCNTRL CWA BY 21Z. TEMPS MAY ALSO TRY TO
FALL OFF FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. AGAIN...LIKE THE KEWEENAW EVEN
WITH MAINLY SNOW VERSUS RAIN...WARMER BLYR TEMPS AND MINIMAL
STRONGER LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW
ACCUM. BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE CWA WILL OCCUR MORE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS NOW ADDRESSED IN THE LONGER TERM DISCUSSION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE
OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST IN A REX BLOCK
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST 00Z SAT. PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ROTATING
AROUND THE TROUGH AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
BASICALLY...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
SINCE THIS IS AN EARLY SEASON SNOW...LOT OF THE TOOLS WILL NOT WORK
USING THICKNESSES FOR DETERMINING SNOW AND PRETTY MUCH KEPT WHAT WAS
ALREADY IN THERE WHICH IS SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN IN THE
LOWER TERRAIN AND EASTERN CWA. DID LOWER SNOW RATIOS THOUGH AS
FEELING IS THAT THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL BE SMALL AND LOWER THAN A
10 TO 1 RATIO WILL WORK. THIS STILL GIVES ME 1-3 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING. IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND LOWERED THE LAKE TEMPERATURES TO 10C
TO 12C FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THINKING IS THE LAKE WILL START TO
GET TURNED OVER AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FROM 12C TO 15C
THAT IT IS NOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -6C BY 12Z SAT
AND THAT IS ENOUGH LAKE EFFECT DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT. BY
SUNDAY...WINDS SWITCH TO THE SW AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION COMING
IN...THIS WILL PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN OFFSHORE OF THE U.P.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN 12Z MONDAY. THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT IS POISED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO WED. ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THU. IT LOOKS TO
STAY COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER. KEPT MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WITH NEXT COLD AIR WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRIFTS TO THE N
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EARLY AT CMX BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO STAY VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW /IFR
CONDITIONS/ DEVELOPING AT CMX LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY MVFR
FLYING AT IWD AND SAW WITH MINIMAL LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT PRECIP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
OTHER MAIN ISSUE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
20-30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP AT CMX ON FRIDAY...WINDS
SHOULD EXCEED 40 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEING LOCATED JUST NORTH NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OF
35-45KTS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...INCREASING TO 45KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SFC TROUGH
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
SLIDES SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS AT TIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...LOWERING WINDS BELOW 25KTS. WINDS COME UP TO 30 KNOTS FOR
MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGING IN SOME
COLDER AIR. GETS REAL CLOSE TO A GALE THEN WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ248.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ246-247.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-
248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
355 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND IT
WILL TURN COLDER. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 50S. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 4OS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WISCONSIN HEADING
TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS I WRITE THIS. BEYOND THAT THERE
IS THE ISSUE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF JET ASSISTED LIFT AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT AT 3 PM WAS
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS THIS LINE CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN I
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THAT LINE. AIDING THAT IS
A SURGE OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 1000 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THE FRONT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HRRR RUC IS DOING REASONABLY
WELL WITH THE CONVECTION ON THE COLD FRONT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...BASED ON OUR TIMING TOOL...THE TIMING IN THE HRRR RUC AND RELATED
TOOLS I EXPECT A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
TO CROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. I DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS THE CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS
30 - 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THERE IS ALSO 40
TO 50 KNOTS AS CLOSE TO THE GROUND AS 5000 FT AGL AS THIS LINE
MOVES CROSS THE CWA. SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS.
ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE
A WAVE ON THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS
THE RAIN FROM THAT WILL MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. IT COULD
IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING EVEN SO. I
HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THAT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE DEEP COLD AIR ROTATES THROUGH THE
CWA SATURDAY. THAT WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THANKS
TO A NORTH NORTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER I EXPECT MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO BE CLOSE TO LAKE SHORE. EVEN SO THE AIR
IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT THOSE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
LAKE SHORE BUT SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND. COLD BE A FREEZE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST OF GRR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THAT FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD BE BREAKING MUCH OF IT UP THROUGH THE
DAY. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER GOOD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH MIXING REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...WHICH COULD LESSEN THE IMPACTS.
THE NEXT RAIN MAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD BE POCKETS OF STEADIER
RAINS AS THIS FRONT LOOKS MUCH LIKE THIS EVENING/S FRONT. HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT HOWEVER AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA SHOULD BE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CHILLY AIR WILL SLOWLY LOSE IT/S GRIP ON THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPS BELOW 0C MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON SO A SLIGHTLY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT FRONT...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A
QUICKER SHOT...WITH H8 TEMPS ALREADY WARMING BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REACH WESTERN MI THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH TAF SITE. ANY
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF VCTS TO
ALL SITES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR.
THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF MVFR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR...SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXPERIMENTAL GREAT LAKES WATER SPOUT FORECAST
SHOWS THE BEST SHOT OF WATER SPOUTS AS BEING SATURDAY AS THE DEEPER
COLD AIR MOVES IN. I PUT WATER SPOUTS IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING
THAT TIME.
THE HRRR SUGGEST POSSIBLE NEAR GALE WINDS WITH THE FRONT THIS
EVENING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST OVER THE NEXT WEEK SO EVEN WITH
THE RAINS LAST NIGHT I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ845>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR LMZ844.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
135 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
WE/LL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING AND SENDS THE TEMPERATURE FALLING. SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
I UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO TIME OUT THE RAIN MORE
QUICKLY. I USED THE HRRR RUC TO HELP MY CAUSE (10Z VERSION). IT
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID DAY BASED ON SAT LOOPS AND MODEL
RH DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL... THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MOST OF THE PCPN WAS
NORTH OF I-96 BUT ANOTHER AREA WAS MOVING TOWARD LWR MI AND WAS
OVER ERN IL. THESE AREAS OF PCPN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS WILL BOOST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. BY LATE IN THE DAY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. NCEP AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 23Z OVER ERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. 00Z MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 40 KTS SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS. MID LEVEL WINDS NEAR 50 KTS WILL PUSH THE LINE EWD
QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z.
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE CWA CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CERTAINLY COOLER THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG DPVA.
SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ONGOING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF THE LAKE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 20 DEG C. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OF
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT
HAVE SNOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
FEEL SUNDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT...AS THE MOISTURE WANES. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THOUGH WITH DELTA T/S HOLDING
AROUND 20 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS A
SURFACE RIDGE FLOATS THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
THE FLOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. COLD AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY. AS
IS TYPICAL IN THE FALL...TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REACH WESTERN MI THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH TAF SITE. ANY
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF VCTS TO
ALL SITES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR.
THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF MVFR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR...SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR
LATE TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BOOST WAVES TO 5-7 FT NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
QPF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ845>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LMZ844.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
903 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
WE/LL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING AND SENDS THE TEMPERATURE FALLING. SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
I UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO TIME OUT THE RAIN MORE
QUICKLY. I USED THE HRRR RUC TO HELP MY CAUSE (10Z VERSION). IT
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID DAY BASED ON SAT LOOPS AND MODEL
RH DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL... THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MOST OF THE PCPN WAS
NORTH OF I-96 BUT ANOTHER AREA WAS MOVING TOWARD LWR MI AND WAS
OVER ERN IL. THESE AREAS OF PCPN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS WILL BOOST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. BY LATE IN THE DAY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. NCEP AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 23Z OVER ERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. 00Z MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 40 KTS SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS. MID LEVEL WINDS NEAR 50 KTS WILL PUSH THE LINE EWD
QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z.
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE CWA CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CERTAINLY COOLER THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG DPVA.
SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ONGOING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF THE LAKE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 20 DEG C. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OF
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT
HAVE SNOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
FEEL SUNDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT...AS THE MOISTURE WANES. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THOUGH WITH DELTA T/S HOLDING
AROUND 20 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS A
SURFACE RIDGE FLOATS THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
THE FLOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. COLD AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY. AS
IS TYPICAL IN THE FALL...TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
RAIN IS LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST AT 12Z...AND THE RAIN/FOG SHOULD
BE OVER BY 14Z AT THE TAF SITES. LOW CEILINGS ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF LIFTING OUT...WITH GRR THE ONLY SITE WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS.
THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO BE GONE BY MID MORNING. THE
REASON THE LOWER CLOUD AND RAIN/FOG ARE COMING TO A QUICK END IS
THAT THE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED IT IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AS WELL.
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR AS SOUTHWESTERLY WARM WINDS
DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND BRING A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 22Z AND 05Z. THE STORMS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRING
AT KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO AS LAKE MOISTURE HELPS THE DEVELOPMENT.
VFR AFTER 05Z TONIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BOOST WAVES TO 5-7 FT NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2012
QPF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
901 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HOURLY
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS. /DL/
&&
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO JUST
SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. 01Z TEMP AT MONTICELLO AR WAS 75 WHILE IT WAS 55
AT LITTLE ROCK. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH IS RATHER
SCATTERED RIGHT NOW...IS EITHER RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTORMS. THE RUC AND HRRR
ARE BOTH INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POSTFRONTAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
IN NWRN ZONES. MOISTURE...OR THE LACK THEREOF...IS A BIG LIMITING
FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z KJAN RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF ONLY
0.62 INCHES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST PAST THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND
REACHING THE JACKSON METRO AREA RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. THE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO NO
MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE. HOURLY FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO
ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS THIS TAF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A
SOLID WIND SHIFT AS WINDS BECOME NW/N...MVFR CEILINGS ( N
SECTIONS)...AND SOME ISO/SCT SHRA ( N SECTIONS). AS FOR FRONTAL
TIMING...GLH LOOKS TO SEE IT BY 05Z AND GLH BY 06Z. THAT IS A TAD
FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHER SITES (JAN/GTR) WILL SEE THE
FRONT CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SAY BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE E/SE AREAS WILL
HAVE THE FROPA LATER IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NORTHERN
SITES...ESP GLH/GWO...WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME SHRA. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL SEE CEILINGS...BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE OF THE VFR
VARIETY AND OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE DAY SAT. /CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CAA WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE DELTA BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE PINE BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT COULD
BRUSH MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED MOSTLY
BY THE COOLER WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS THE DELTA...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PINE BELT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL AS LOW AS POTENTIALLY COULD
BE AS CLOUDS WILL HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE WAS
REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. /28/
LONG TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY THE ENSEMBLES AND MOST LONG RANGE MODELS
AGREE THAT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A STRONG
SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE DELTA REGION...WHICH WILL BECOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO GMOS...MEX AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS GENERALLY TOO COOL
DURING THE DAY AND TOO WARM AT NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT KEPT THE
CURRENT COOLER FORECAST AS MODELS SEEMED TO BE A LITTLE WARM.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO A BLEND
OF GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS DRY FOR MIDWEEK...BUT HAD
HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY./17/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/CME/28/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today through Saturday Night)...
08Z surface analysis shows well defined cold front has pushed into
far NW MO. Earlier surface based convection has long since
dissipated, with pockets of post frontal elevated convection having a
better go at it between Omaha to north central KS. RAP soundings show
that modest elevated instability (100-300 J/Kg CAPE) will overspread
NE KS and NW MO toward daybreak, supporting scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Today:
Precipitation won`t be the only issue to contend with as the
temperature forecast will be equally, if not more challenging. High
resolution models show that the frontal speed and cold advection
will slow with time due to a combination of daytime mixing and a
shift of post frontal precipitation toward the northeast. Southerly
winds and weak moisture advection were providing a mild start across
the warm sector, and so it seems likely that temperatures will
quickly rebound to near yesterday`s maxes, with mid to upper 70s
likely over mid Missouri under abundant sunshine. Across the front
in far northwest Missouri, strong cold advection and cloud cover
suggest that effective highs may be reached at 12Z with only a
modest afternoon recovery in the wake of morning convection. It`s
possible that my 60F highs here may be perhaps generous. In between
these extrema, the forecast is even more nebulous as highs could be
reached mid-late morning with temps steady or slowly falling in the
afternoon depending on the offset between cold advection and daytime
heating. With respect to POPs, the orientation of the frontal axis
and elevated instability axis is reflected in keeping scattered
shra/-tsra mainly north of a Kansas City to Kirksville axis for
today. Coverage will be limited by weakening ascent and ambient dry
mid level air, so 30-40 POPs look kosher.
Tonight:
The surface front should eventually fizzle just southeast of the CWA
this evening as large scale height falls finally arrive from the
northwest. The arrival of stronger mid level flow will help sharpen
a deep layer thermal gradient, with model cross sections showing a
classic strengthening of layered/tilted frontogenesis beneath the
mid-upper jet cores. Condensation pressure deficits indicate a
fairly rapid top-down saturation this evening along and south of a
Kansas City-Kirksville line, with some convective instability
present as well. Thus, expect a blossoming of an axis of showers
embedded thunder between 00 and 06Z over the srn half of the CWA, or
perhaps a resurgence of whatever lingers from the daytime hours.
Have increased POPs to around 60 percent for areas south of the MO
river and brought POPs back toward the northwest overnight.
Temperatures will steadily fall via strong cold advection and
evaporative cooling, leading to some very raw conditions where
precipitation is ongoing.
Friday:
This process should continue through the daytime Friday with bands
of mainly light rain persisting ahead of the large upper trough axis
still to the north and west. Surface pressure rises will continue
under moderate cold advection, leading to some pretty miserable
conditions as temperatures struggle to break the 50 degree mark.
Friday Night-Saturday:
Layered frontogenesis should slowly shift south and east, allowing
precipitation to gradually end from the northwest. Extensive
cloudiness and perhaps even some drizzle will linger as the
deepening longwave trough still remains well northwest of the area.
Mid-high level RH values confirm this idea, and again temperatures
will run some 20+ degrees below normal.
Saturday Night:
With the passage of the upper trough, skies should clear, coincident
with the arrival of the surface ridge axis. Temperatures will likely
plummet after midnight, with near certainty that the coldest night
of the early autumn season is upon us. Widespread frost looks almost
a given and some sheltered areas across NW Missouri could dip below
freezing for an hour or two.
Bookbinder
Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Cool temperatures will still be prevailing as the end of the weekend
arrives, though some moderation is in store for the work week.
A pronounced trough will still be in control of the weather across
the Plains, pushing a cold Canadian surface high through the Lower
Missouri River Valley. The consensus amongst the medium range models
is for the trough pushing this cold air to continue dominating the
weather across the eastern half of the nation through the work week.
However, with a series of shortwaves expected to drop into, and then
move through this broader longwave feature, it wont be all cold air
advection for next week.
For Sunday, the center of the cold Canadian surface high will be
sliding off to our east, allowing the first hints at a return flow
to develop by late in the day. The return flow that will be in place
by Monday should allow afternoon readings to jump back into the 60s,
with that temperature range expected to persist through at least the
middle of the work week. This temperature regime will also support
overnight lows in the 40s, so any weekend frost issues are not
expected to persist into the work week at this time.
Otherwise, have continued to carry some silent slight chance POPs
from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Several models advertise a
shortwave rotating through the broader trough in that time period.
Warm air advection on the back side of the exiting surface high,
ahead of another weak frontal boundary, could squeeze some drops
from the air. But, given the many questions on timing and moisture
availability have opted to leave the POPs in the silent slight
chance range. Otherwise, consensus model output inserted more POPs
for Wednesday. These did not look reasonable given the surface high
expected to be shifting through the Plains States during that
period, so have yanked them out.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...a cold front has moved through the terminals this
morning veering winds to the north this afternoon. Gusty winds
behind the front will subside over the next few hours. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms have also developed behind the front this
morning but have begun to diminish however...a few light showers
will still be possible in the VC of the terminals over the next few
hours as well. For this afternoon expect continued north winds
around 7-10kts with bkn mid level clouds around 7-8kft. Tonight
showers will develop southwest of the terminals and move
northeastward into the MKC and MCI by 02Z-03Z and continue through
09Z...however no cig/vis restrictions are expected. Showers will
shift south of the terminals by tomorrow morning with continued bkn
mid level clouds.
73
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today through Saturday Night)...
08Z surface analysis shows well defined cold front has pushed into
far NW MO. Earlier surface based convection has long since
dissipated, with pockets of post frontal elevated convection having a
better go at it between Omaha to north central KS. RAP soundings show
that modest elevated instability (100-300 J/Kg CAPE) will overspread
NE KS and NW MO toward daybreak, supporting scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Today:
Precipitation won`t be the only issue to contend with as the
temperature forecast will be equally, if not more challenging. High
resolution models show that the frontal speed and cold advection
will slow with time due to a combination of daytime mixing and a
shift of post frontal precipitation toward the northeast. Southerly
winds and weak moisture advection were providing a mild start across
the warm sector, and so it seems likely that temperatures will
quickly rebound to near yesterday`s maxes, with mid to upper 70s
likely over mid Missouri under abundant sunshine. Across the front
in far northwest Missouri, strong cold advection and cloud cover
suggest that effective highs may be reached at 12Z with only a
modest afternoon recovery in the wake of morning convection. It`s
possible that my 60F highs here may be perhaps generous. In between
these extrema, the forecast is even more nebulous as highs could be
reached mid-late morning with temps steady or slowly falling in the
afternoon depending on the offset between cold advection and daytime
heating. With respect to POPs, the orientation of the frontal axis
and elevated instability axis is reflected in keeping scattered
shra/-tsra mainly north of a Kansas City to Kirksville axis for
today. Coverage will be limited by weakening ascent and ambient dry
mid level air, so 30-40 POPs look kosher.
Tonight:
The surface front should eventually fizzle just southeast of the CWA
this evening as large scale height falls finally arrive from the
northwest. The arrival of stronger mid level flow will help sharpen
a deep layer thermal gradient, with model cross sections showing a
classic strengthening of layered/tilted frontogenesis beneath the
mid-upper jet cores. Condensation pressure deficits indicate a
fairly rapid top-down saturation this evening along and south of a
Kansas City-Kirksville line, with some convective instability
present as well. Thus, expect a blossoming of an axis of showers
embedded thunder between 00 and 06Z over the srn half of the CWA, or
perhaps a resurgence of whatever lingers from the daytime hours.
Have increased POPs to around 60 percent for areas south of the MO
river and brought POPs back toward the northwest overnight.
Temperatures will steadily fall via strong cold advection and
evaporative cooling, leading to some very raw conditions where
precipitation is ongoing.
Friday:
This process should continue through the daytime Friday with bands
of mainly light rain persisting ahead of the large upper trough axis
still to the north and west. Surface pressure rises will continue
under moderate cold advection, leading to some pretty miserable
conditions as temperatures struggle to break the 50 degree mark.
Friday Night-Saturday:
Layered frontogenesis should slowly shift south and east, allowing
precipitation to gradually end from the northwest. Extensive
cloudiness and perhaps even some drizzle will linger as the
deepening longwave trough still remains well northwest of the area.
Mid-high level RH values confirm this idea, and again temperatures
will run some 20+ degrees below normal.
Saturday Night:
With the passage of the upper trough, skies should clear, coincident
with the arrival of the surface ridge axis. Temperatures will likely
plummet after midnight, with near certainty that the coldest night
of the early autumn season is upon us. Widespread frost looks almost
a given and some sheltered areas across NW Missouri could dip below
freezing for an hour or two.
Bookbinder
Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Cool temperatures will still be prevailing as the end of the weekend
arrives, though some moderation is in store for the work week.
A pronounced trough will still be in control of the weather across
the Plains, pushing a cold Canadian surface high through the Lower
Missouri River Valley. The consensus amongst the medium range models
is for the trough pushing this cold air to continue dominating the
weather across the eastern half of the nation through the work week.
However, with a series of shortwaves expected to drop into, and then
move through this broader longwave feature, it wont be all cold air
advection for next week.
For Sunday, the center of the cold Canadian surface high will be
sliding off to our east, allowing the first hints at a return flow
to develop by late in the day. The return flow that will be in place
by Monday should allow afternoon readings to jump back into the 60s,
with that temperature range expected to persist through at least the
middle of the work week. This temperature regime will also support
overnight lows in the 40s, so any weekend frost issues are not
expected to persist into the work week at this time.
Otherwise, have continued to carry some silent slight chance POPs
from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Several models advertise a
shortwave rotating through the broader trough in that time period.
Warm air advection on the back side of the exiting surface high,
ahead of another weak frontal boundary, could squeeze some drops
from the air. But, given the many questions on timing and moisture
availability have opted to leave the POPs in the silent slight
chance range. Otherwise, consensus model output inserted more POPs
for Wednesday. These did not look reasonable given the surface high
expected to be shifting through the Plains States during that
period, so have yanked them out.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...cold front advancing across the Kansas-Missouri
border line will likely be through all the terminals by the time this
TAF cycle starts. This will leave, at times, a gusty north to
northwest wind prevailing through the day. Gusty winds are expected
to be worst in the morning hours just behind the front. Otherwise,
cloud cover behind the advancing front is not generally expected to
lower too much today owing to the dry boundary layer, but some
showers are expected to develop from these high based clouds this
afternoon and this evening, though little impairment to flying
conditions is currently expected. Otherwise, late tonight winds will
calm some as they veer to the northeast.
Cutter
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today through Saturday Night)...
08Z surface analysis shows well defined cold front has pushed into
far NW MO. Earlier surface based convection has long since
dissipated, with pockets of post frontal elevated convection having
a better go at it between Omaha to north central KS. RAP soundings
show that modest elevated instability (100-300 J/Kg CAPE) will
overspread NE KS and NW MO toward daybreak, supporting scattered
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Today:
Precipitation won`t be the only issue to contend with as the
temperature forecast will be equally, if not more challenging. High
resolution models show that the frontal speed and cold advection
will slow with time due to a combination of daytime mixing and a
shift of post frontal precipitation toward the northeast. Southerly
winds and weak moisture advection were providing a mild start across
the warm sector, and so it seems likely that temperatures will
quickly rebound to near yesterday`s maxes, with mid to upper 70s
likely over mid Missouri under abundant sunshine. Across the front
in far northwest Missouri, strong cold advection and cloud cover
suggest that effective highs may be reached at 12Z with only a
modest afternoon recovery in the wake of morning convection. It`s
possible that my 60F highs here may be perhaps generous. In between
these extrema, the forecast is even more nebulous as highs could be
reached mid-late morning with temps steady or slowly falling in the
afternoon depending on the offset between cold advection and daytime
heating. With respect to POPs, the orientation of the frontal axis
and elevated instability axis is reflected in keeping scattered
shra/-tsra mainly north of a Kansas City to Kirksville axis for
today. Converage will be limited by weakening ascent and ambient dry
mid level air, so 30-40 POPs look kosher.
Tonight:
The surface front should eventually fizzle just southeast of the CWA
this evening as large scale height falls finally arrive from the
northwest. The arrival of stronger mid level flow will help sharpen
a deep layer thermal gradient, with model cross sections showing a
classic strengthening of layered/tilted frontogenesis beneath the
mid-upper jet cores. Condensation pressure deficits indicate a
fairly rapid top-down saturation this evening along and south of a
Kansas City-Kirksville line, with some convective instability
present as well. Thus, expect a blossoming of an axis of showers
embedded thunder between 00 and 06Z over the srn half of the CWA, or
perhaps a resurgence of whatever lingers from the daytime hours.
Have increased POPs to around 60 percent for areas south of the MO
river and brought POPs back toward the northwest overnight.
Temperatures will steadily fall via strong cold advection and
evaporative cooling, leading to some very raw conditions where
precipitation is ongoing.
Friday:
This process should continue through the daytime Friday with bands
of mainly light rain persisting ahead of the large upper trough axis
still to the north and west. Surface pressure rises will continue
under moderate cold advection, leading to some pretty miserable
conditions as temperatures struggle to break the 50 degree mark.
Friday Night-Saturday:
Layered frontogenesis should slowly shift south and east, allowing
precipitation to gradually end from the northwest. Extensive
cloudiness and perhaps even some drizzle will linger as the
deepening longwave trough still remains well northwest of the area.
Mid-high level RH values confirm this idea, and again temperatures
will run some 20+ degrees below normal.
Saturday Night:
With the passage of the upper trough, skies should clear, coincident
with the arrival of the surface ridge axis. Temperatures will likely
plummet after midnight, with near certainty that the coldest night
of the early autumn season is upon us. Widespread frost looks almost
a given and some sheltered areas across NW Missouri could dip below
freezing for an hour or two.
Bookbinder
Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Cool temperatures will still be prevailing as the end of the weekend
arrives, though some moderation is in store for the work week.
A pronounced trough will still be in control of the weather across
the Plains, pushing a cold Canadian surface high through the Lower
Missouri River Valley. The consensus amongst the medium range models
is for the trough pushing this cold air to continue dominating the
weather across the eastern half of the nation through the work week.
However, with a series of shortwaves expected to drop into, and then
move through this broader longwave feature, it wont be all cold air
advection for next week.
For Sunday, the center of the cold Canadian surface high will be
sliding off to our east, allowing the first hints at a return flow
to develop by late in the day. The return flow that will be in place
by Monday should allow afternoon readings to jump back into the 60s,
with that temperature range expected to persist through at least the
middle of the work week. This temperature regime will also support
overnight lows in the 40s, so any weekend frost issues are not
expected to persist into the work week at this time.
Otherwise, have continued to carry some silent slight chance POPs
from Tuesday into Tuesday night. Several models advertise a
shortwave rotating through the broader trough in that time period.
Warm air advection on the back side of the exiting surface high,
ahead of another weak frontal boundary, could squeeze some drops
from the air. But, given the many questions on timing and moisture
availability have opted to leave the POPs in the silent slight
chance range. Otherwise, consensus model output inserted more POPs
for Wednesday. These did not look reasonable given the surface high
expected to be shifting through the Plains States during that
period, so have yanked them out.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, Nebraska cold front continues southeast push and
will pass through the terminals Thursday morning with increasing NW
winds. Expect gusty winds within 1-2 hours of frontal passage. 00z
NAM model guidance is slower in saturating the mid levels via
isentropic ascent and layered frontogenesis and thus slower in
developing post frontal rain, so have pushed back start of rain
threat by 3-6 hours. Rain chances also appear to be increasing by
very late afternoon and especially into Thursday evening due to
top-down saturation. So, have introduced a TEMPO group into the
KMCI/KMKC terminals.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
658 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH IFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO
KLBF. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT 6SM OR HIGHER. NORTH OF
THIS LINE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS THE
THERMAL FORCING RELAXES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND
THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS...WRF...NAM...GEM AND 00Z
ECM. HOWEVER THE LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR SOLNS ARE SUGGESTING A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THE 18Z NAM IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE GEMREG KEEPING THE BEST FORCING AND SNOW
SOUTHWEST AND ITS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE RAP AND HRRR TO BE OFF BUT
THE RADAR TRENDS ARE OF CONCERN. A QPF BLEND OF THE MODELS ABOVE
AND A 10 TO 1 RATIO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY
ASSUMING BRIDGES AND ROAD SURFACES DONT CROSS THE FREEZING MARK
OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE LEAVES A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY.
OTHER AREAS WEST REMAIN OVERCAST AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE
ALREADY HAD A FREEZE.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH CANADA. A BLEND OF NAM AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM12 BIAS
CORRECTION PRODUCED LOWS IN THE TEENS IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE 20S FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS
AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS IS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE BEYOND FRIDAY...SO DRY
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH
PERHAPS ONLY 50S BY FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AND THEN
POTENTIALLY MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT...AND BY EARLY
EVENING MOSTLY JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KAIA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME VERY HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTED RH BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NEZ059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
121 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL PREVAIL...EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...WITH CIGS REACHING ABOUT
5KFT BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A STRAY LIGHT
SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING TO AROUND OR BELOW 10KTS OVERNIGHT...AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND
ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF
LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST
PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE
NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT
COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD
COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON
ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL
IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW
OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES
INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN
PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE
LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING
PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A
1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING
POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE
LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR
NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF
HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR
NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY
GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT
OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND
DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE
CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY.
KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION
OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY
DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER.
TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL
PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION
COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP
MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD
PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT
WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE
CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN
MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS
VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT
THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM
ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE
FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY
PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN
ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK
SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY
REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM
MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6
DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A
RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH
FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS
SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP
STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT
WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH
TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE
NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE
CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS
CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD
TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE
OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING
A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL
KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
800 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND
ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
TERMINAL...BUT NOTHING BELOW 8000FT AGL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE DAY FROM THE NORTH...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 17KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS...BUT WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF
LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST
PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE
NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT
COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD
COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON
ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL
IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW
OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES
INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN
PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE
LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING
PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A
1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING
POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE
LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR
NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF
HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR
NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY
GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT
OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND
DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE
CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY.
KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION
OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY
DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER.
TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL
PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION
COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP
MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD
PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT
WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE
CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN
MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS
VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT
THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM
ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE
FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY
PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN
ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK
SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY
REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM
MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6
DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A
RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH
FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS
SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP
STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT
WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH
TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE
NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE
CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS
CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD
TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE
OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING
A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL
KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
TERMINAL...BUT NOTHING BELOW 8000FT AGL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE DAY FROM THE NORTH...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 17KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS...BUT WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF
LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST
PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE
NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT
COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD
COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON
ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL
IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW
OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES
INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN
PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE
LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING
PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A
1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING
POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE
LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR
NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF
HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR
NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY
GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT
OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND
DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE
CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY.
KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION
OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY
DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER.
TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL
PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION
COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP
MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD
PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT
WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE
CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN
MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS
VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT
THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM
ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE
FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY
PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN
ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK
SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY
REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM
MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6
DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A
RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH
FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS
SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP
STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT
WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH
TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE
NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE
CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS
CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD
TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE
OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING
A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL
KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION/LONG TERM...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
451 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF
LEGITIMATE...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY QUITE LOW...THE FORECAST
PRESENTS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...WITH THE ULTIMATE QUESTION EACH OF THE
NEXT 3 NIGHTS BEING JUST HOW COLD WILL IT ACTUALLY GET...AS IT
COULD BE A DICEY BATTLE BETWEEN A VERY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUD
COVER TRYING TO HOLD SOME AREAS UP A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON
ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AS I TYPE A SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH CONFIRMED PENNY/NICKLE HAIL
IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A FEW
OTHER STRONG STORMS LIKELY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO AFFECTED NEB ZONES
INCLUDING BOTH THE FRANKLIN/MERRICK COUNTY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY AT THIS HOUR...WITH STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SERVING AS THE MAIN
PRE-DAWN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH THAT WERE BEING REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE
LARGELY TAMED DOWN A BIT. 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FIRST TRULY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA...HAVING
PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A
1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING
POWERED BY CONTINUED MODEST PRESSURE RISES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF AN EXPANSIVE 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MT AREA.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...HAVE
LINGERED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS SEVERAL FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY TIED TO A STRONG ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...AND ACCORDING TO 08Z
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ARE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR
NOW UP INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF
HAIL UP TO THE PENNY-ISH SIZE RANGE AS LONG AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR
NOW CONTINUED TO LINGER A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...BUT ACCORDING TO
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS FROM THE 06Z HRRR THIS IS PROBABLY BEING PLENTY
GENEROUS...AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE OR SO. ONCE THIS ONGOING PESKY STRONG CONVECTION GETS OUT
OF HERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AND
DRY WITHIN THE CWA...WITH SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AVERAGING NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY. IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THOSE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE
CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE 25-30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY.
KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BASED ON EXPECTATION
OF SOME SUN AND DECENT MIXING...ACTUALLY NUDGED UP MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING NEARLY ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH STILL COMMON...A STEADY
DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 15 MPH OR LOWER.
TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH WILL
PREVAIL CWA-WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE TRICKY...AS THE REGION
COMES UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS AS
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT VOID OF PRECIP
MENTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD
PROMOTE A STEADILY EXTENDING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT
WILL KEEP EVEN THIS MENTION OUT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH MET/MAV GUIDANCE
CAME IN QUITE CHILLY FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...OPTED TO KEEP THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IN MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMP
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS...BUT STILL BRINGS MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...BUT RANGING FROM UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN
MOST KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FREEZE AND/OR PATCHY FROST IS
VERY POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD THINGS UP...ALONG WITH THE FACT
THAT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER...HAS KEPT ME FROM
ISSUING A FORMAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY DAYTIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGER...MOST
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JETS SEEN IN AWHILE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS JET CORE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...CONVERTED ZONE
FORECAST WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE OVERALL BEST RISK FOR POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TARGETING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE SETS UP JUST RIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AROUND THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE HAVE LEFT THIS AS THE ONLY
PRECIP TYPE MENTION FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPS NUDGED UP EASTERN
ZONES VERY SLIGHTLY BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S BUT MAYBE ONLY UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK
SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HOLDING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PROVE VERY TRICKY
REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS...AS EXPECT A GRADIENT RANGING FROM
MORE CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE COLD...AND ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS GUIDANCE...DID LOWER LOWS A SOLID 2-5 DEGREE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW PUTTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6
DOWN IN THE 20S AND AREAS SOUTH INTO KS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S. AS A
RESULT...UNLESS CLOUD WREAK HAVOC...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE ITS FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WITH
FREEZE HEADLINES A DECENT BET DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS
SOUTH OVER NEB...BUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIP
STILL ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT
WITH MOST AREAS ONLY LOW-MID 50S AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
FINALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE DRY CWA-WIDE...AND GENERALLY CLEARER THAN BOTH
TONIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD MO. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT HARD-FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH PUT THE
NAIL IN THE COFFIN ON THE GROWING SEASON...WITH MOST IF NOT OF THE
CWA SETTLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. IF THINGS GO AS
CURRENTLY ENVISIONED...FRIDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE THE LAST FREEZE
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LIKELY BEING FINISHED OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS ALREADY STATED SEVERAL TIMES THOUGH...MID LEVEL CLOUD
TRENDS COULD POTENTIALLY THROW IN A WRENCH IN THESE PLANS
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HOLD UP LOWS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ONE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THE
OTHER ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THESE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND GEFS-MEAN ALL SUGGESTING
A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES...OVERALL
KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA PER THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LACKING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 7000FT
AGL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z...MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HORUS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUCH AS AT TCC SO LOOK FOR A CONTINUED LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DECKS AROUND 3000
FEET WILL QUICKLY ERODE AWAY DURING THE NEXT 30 TO 60 MINUTES
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THAT THE WEATHER MODELS ARE PAINTING A POSSIBLE LOWER
CLOUD INTRUSION NEAR TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
AND THAT TREND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS FAR AS IMPACT TO TCC.
WILL NOT PUT ANY LOW CLOUD WORDING IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...944 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012...
LATEST OBS AND RUC13 GUIDANCE SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
DECREASING OVER THE E PLAINS THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADV
TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012...
AT 00Z...A DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE KABQ
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.37 INCH...OR ROUGHLY 80% OF
NORMAL. AT 09Z...LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
EVIDENCE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...WITH A COLD FRONT BARRELING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A CLOVIS TO SANTA ROSA TO NEAR LAS VEGAS
LINE. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO BETWEEN
40 AND 50 MPH.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW WEDNESDAY`S
AND GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONTRAST THIS WITH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE HIGHS WILL BE AN
AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INSTEAD BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY WITH THE FRONT
RETREATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
FIRST FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT. THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND FRONT PRESENTS A COUPLE
FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE FIRST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE
GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 00Z MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...JOHNSON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE ICE GENERATION REGION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR SNOW OR SLEET TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. GIVEN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT. THE SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN EAST WIND EVENT...BUT THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. TEMPERATURE
WISE...A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...
POSITIONING IT NEAR SOCAL BY 12Z NEXT THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CREEP IN THE FORECAST AROUND MID WEEK...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON SLOW APPROACH. 11
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHALLOW BUT QUITE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DRAMATIC COOLING
HAS FOLLOWED THE FRONT PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SOUTHWARD
TO THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN 15
TO 20 DEGREES. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FAIRLY QUICK AND SO WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SELY BY AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL BE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH NORTHEAST NM
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF A MODERATE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AGAIN FRIDAY....MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OR
VENTILATION...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL
START TO BRING OM HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND POOR
VENTILATION IN THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS VIGOROUS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...COLDER CONDITIONS...AND
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE EAST AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
OCTOBER CENTRAL AND WEST. POOR VENTILATION RATES EAST AND FAIR WEST
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFY AND THE LOW CLOUDS EAST GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY SETTLING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER AROUND MIDWEEK. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE
DETAILS...HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE AND HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...TRENDING TOWARD AT LEAST AN UNSETTLED
PATTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
944 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST OBS AND RUC13 GUIDANCE SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
DECREASING OVER THE E PLAINS THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADV
TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...554 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO WLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH SE NM THIS MORNING. AS ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
E LATE THIS MORNING...N TO NELY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE E PLAINS
WILL TRANSITION TO ELY...THEN SELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. W OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS...WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GUST TO 25KTS POSSIBLE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN 23Z-01Z TIME-FRAME. 33
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU OCT 4 2012...
AT 00Z...A DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE KABQ
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.37 INCH...OR ROUGHLY 80% OF
NORMAL. AT 09Z...LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
EVIDENCE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...WITH A COLD FRONT BARRELING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A CLOVIS TO SANTA ROSA TO NEAR LAS VEGAS
LINE. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO BETWEEN
40 AND 50 MPH.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW WEDNESDAY`S
AND GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONTRAST THIS WITH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE HIGHS WILL BE AN
AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INSTEAD BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY WITH THE FRONT
RETREATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
FIRST FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT. THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND FRONT PRESENTS A COUPLE
FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE FIRST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE
GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 00Z MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...JOHNSON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE ICE GENERATION REGION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR SNOW OR SLEET TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. GIVEN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT. THE SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN EAST WIND EVENT...BUT THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. TEMPERATURE
WISE...A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...
POSITIONING IT NEAR SOCAL BY 12Z NEXT THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CREEP IN THE FORECAST AROUND MID WEEK...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON SLOW APPROACH. 11
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHALLOW BUT QUITE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DRAMATIC COOLING
HAS FOLLOWED THE FRONT PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SOUTHWARD
TO THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN 15
TO 20 DEGREES. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FAIRLY QUICK AND SO WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SELY BY AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL BE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH NORTHEAST NM
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF A MODERATE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AGAIN FRIDAY....MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OR
VENTILATION...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL
START TO BRING OM HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND POOR
VENTILATION IN THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS VIGOROUS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...COLDER CONDITIONS...AND
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE EAST AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
OCTOBER CENTRAL AND WEST. POOR VENTILATION RATES EAST AND FAIR WEST
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFY AND THE LOW CLOUDS EAST GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY SETTLING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER AROUND MIDWEEK. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE
DETAILS...HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE AND HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...TRENDING TOWARD AT LEAST AN UNSETTLED
PATTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. FALL WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL
SWING FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL ENSURE A LOCALLY
COOL AIRMASS FOR NY LASTING SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OVER NEW YORK AT 03Z EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE BUFFALO AREA THEN FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TO AKRON OHIO. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S EAST OF THE
FRONT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE FRONT.
STEADY ANA-FRONTAL RAIN BAND STILL JUST WEST OF WNY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
STEADIER RAIN IS YET TO COME AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING PROVIDED BY STRONG JET AT 500 MB STREAMING OVER THE THE
LOWER LAKES REGION. 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR MODELS ALONG WITH SREF
ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE BAND OF STEADIER
RAIN ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT
A 9 HOUR WINDOW FOR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. FOR WNY AND SOUTHERN TIER
THIS IS 04-13Z...FOR FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTY 06-15Z. QPF
FORECAST IN LINE WITH HPC WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERHAPS THE TUG HILL AREA UNDER THE
HIGHEST QPF...WITH AMOUNTS NEARING OR EVEN EXCEEDING AN INCH...WITH
LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF
TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN
TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT 750MB
WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWING A DRYING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BUT
MOIST AIRMASS NEAR THE CAP. SO MAINLY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EAST
OF LAKE ERIE /CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS/ AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
GOOD MIXING /BREEZY/ AND MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...ABOUT 15-20F
COOLER THAN FRIDAY MAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE WITH LOWERING
TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BRINGING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE RESPONSES ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN
FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND UPPER
30S INLAND WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING.
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A LAKE/DIURNAL
HYBRID AS THE DAY WEARS ON. COOL DAY FOR SURE WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAR INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
VARY LITTLE...BUT BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE WEAK RIDGING AND A MORE
WEST TO WSW WIND AND LIGHTER GRADIENT. WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
RESPONSE...AND ALSO EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS IN AREAS OF CLEARING
SKIES...ESP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE FREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING A CRISP
AND DRY MONDAY...THEN THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BRING A MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS...PRECLUDING THE WORRY OF ANOTHER
SUBFREEZING NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL...AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND WARMER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...BUT THIS WILL COME AT A COST AS THE WARMER AIR WILL
PRESAGE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT
IS WELL DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH KJHW IN LIFR. STILL THINKING OBS WILL GO
LOWER BUT SOME LOWERING CONFIDENCE WITH LESS AGGRESSIVE RUNS OF LAMP
GUIDANCE. STILL INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER FOR SOME QUICK
PERIODS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN PASSING SHOWERS. WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RAIN TONIGHT. 03Z SURFACE OBS STILL
SHOW IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO WHICH SHOULD
WORK EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT/RAIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AROUND 12-15Z SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW OR W.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE...THE UPPER
NIAGARA AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT
WITH A GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY HAVE LEFT CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES UP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TOGETHER WITH RELATIVELY LAKE TEMPERATURES ADJACENT TO A
COOL AIRMASS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
EXCEEDING 3-7 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
WSW 15-25KTS SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1026 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MESO-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
A SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS SFC WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY JUST
NOW MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PA. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO REFLECT THIS TREND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WET SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NRN TIER OF PA.
7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE
OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE
CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT
SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT
DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME
MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD
AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION
HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING
LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST
A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE
THE GREATER SYR AREA.
BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW
THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE
NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S
SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVNG WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR
LATER TNGT AND TMRW MRNG AS A CDFNT MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND
OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE
08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z
TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP
TMRW AFTN. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10
KTS...INCRSNG TMRW AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
733 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE
OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE
CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT
SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT
DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME
MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD
AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION
HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING
LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST
A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE
THE GREATER SYR AREA.
BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW
THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE
NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S
SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVNG WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR
LATER TNGT AND TMRW MRNG AS A CDFNT MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND
OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE
08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z
TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP
TMRW AFTN. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10
KTS...INCRSNG TMRW AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
703 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE
OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE
CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT
SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT
DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME
MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD
AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION
HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING
LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST
A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE
THE GREATER SYR AREA.
BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW
THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE
NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S
SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...GNRLY VFR ACRS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
WAY TO MVFR AND POTENTIAL IFR OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AREA OF RAIN IS ENTERING WESTERN NEW YORK
AT THIS TIME AND WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT NY TERMINALS FROM 20Z-24Z
TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO TERMINALS WELL AFTER 08Z WITH
PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS/CIGS SETTLING IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT AT AROUND 10KTS
BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG/RRM
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOW A BIT
TONIGHT...BUT PUSH THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY
SUNRISE. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A CHILLY RAIN TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF OHIO AND ALMOST TO
KPIT AND KBFD AT 23Z. THE PRECIP IS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BACK IN THE
COLDER AIR. THE SHIELD OF PRECIP IS VERY DIFFUSE. EVEN AT SPOTS
OVER NRN OHIO WHERE IT HAS BEEN RAINING FOR QUITE A WHILE...THE
ACCUMS ARE ONLY A TENTH OR TWO. SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
UPCOMING 18 HOURS WILL BE GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE RUC AND HRRR ARE JUST AT THEIR
FURTHEST EDGES OF OUTPUT BY SUNRISE. BUT ALL MDLS INDICATE THAT
THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH FARTHER THAN JOHNSTOWN IN THE SOUTH
AND WELLSBORO IN THE N...GENERALLY BISECTING THE AREA...AT 09Z.
THE PRECIP MAKES VERY LITTLE INROADS INTO THE REGION BY THEN...BUT
FINALLY GETS MOVING IN THE FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE NAM LINES
UP WITH THE HRRR AND RUC WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS AT THIS RANGE...AND
SLIDES ALL THE PRECIP THROUGH BEFORE 13Z OR 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
BE LEFT OVER RIGHT AT 15Z...BUT ONLY IN THE NERN MTS AND LAURELS.
THE DOWNSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEFORE THE PRECIP WILL HELP TO
DRY IT UP AND IT MAY NEVER RAIN TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF BLUE MTN. AT
WORST THEY MIGHT SEE A FEW SPRINKLES.
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE MILD SIDE...AND
IN THE 50-55F RANGE FOR LOWS SE OF THE MT NS...WHILE THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS COOL OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE IN THE MORNING AND CERTAINLY
THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW PWAT AIR FLOWS INTO THE STATE ON WESTERLY
FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE L50S OVER THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 70F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MUCH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK
NW FLOW/LAKE EFFECT REGIME WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
LAURELS WITH CLOUDS...AND SOME SCATTERED SHRA NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF KBFD WITH LIGHT QPF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROFFING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF CANADA AND
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN TROF AXIS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY OR WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND THUS THE BULK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST OF PA...THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...BUT DECIDEDLY COOLER.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY
AS FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH PA IN THE MODERATELY FAST
NWRLY FLOW...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THRUOGH THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF PA THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A SWRLY FLOW OF MILD AIR AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT/THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE LWR GLAKES TONIGHT...THEN
PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY
LATER TONIGHT... KEEPING KBFD IN THE LOW VFR TO MVFR RANGE LATE
TODAY...THEN IFR LATER TONIGHT AS THE RAIN BECOMES STEADIER AND
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT WILL EDGE FURTHER SE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT AS WELL...BRINGING
LOWERING CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 10-18Z WITH SCT SHOWERS TO CENTRAL MTN
TAF SITES OF KJST-KAOO-KUNV-KIPT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST. VFR TO
PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY TURN
TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND WET SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INVOF OF KBFD.
MON-WED...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN PENN.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
531 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SURGED TO A LINE FROM JUST WEST OF BOWIE...
TO NEAR JACKSBORO...TO POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE...TO CISCO AS OF 5 PM.
THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW WITH A DEPTH BETWEEN 1-2 KFT...THUS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE RUC IS THE
ONLY MODEL EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF STRATO-
CU BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT UP
THROUGH 850 MB.
WE HAVE SPED UP THE FRONT AND BRING IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH THE
BEST PUSH OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST
PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT
IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR A SHERMAN...TO FORT WORTH...TO HAMILTON BY
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...WHILE 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE ELSEWHERE.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT. WE HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-20. FEEL MOST THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS...THOUGH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO A
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ACROSS OK/KS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE LOOKING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPIRALING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A RESULTING COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUNCH SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CURRENT MOMENTUM WOULD CARRY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
NEAR THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BECOME STATIONARY AS THE INITIAL
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE METROPLEX TONIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW...A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL BEGIN DEEPENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE A
FORCEFUL SECONDARY PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIVING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS
THE BOUNDARY CLEARS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SB CAPE IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE... BUT POCKETS OF MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BY SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MECHANISM
FOR RAIN PRODUCTION SHOULD BE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO BE THE RULE
ON SATURDAY...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE 60 IF AT ALL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO COOLER...DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 84 53 58 47 / 10 10 30 30 20
WACO, TX 67 88 59 65 49 / 5 5 20 20 20
PARIS, TX 67 81 51 57 44 / 20 20 40 40 20
DENTON, TX 63 80 51 57 46 / 20 20 30 30 20
MCKINNEY, TX 69 82 50 57 46 / 20 20 30 30 20
DALLAS, TX 70 84 56 58 46 / 10 10 30 30 20
TERRELL, TX 69 84 53 60 46 / 10 10 30 30 20
CORSICANA, TX 67 87 57 64 48 / 10 10 20 30 20
TEMPLE, TX 67 88 60 68 49 / 5 5 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 60 80 47 56 45 / 10 10 20 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING VERY QUICKLY AND WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR.
WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AUS AND
SAN ANTONIO AREAS OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS LATE FRI
MORNING WILL BRING VFR BACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON AND WE HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 66 73 51 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 89 62 75 50 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 64 78 50 / - - - - 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 61 67 48 / - - 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 94 68 85 55 / - 0 0 - 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 64 68 49 / - - 10 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 91 62 82 51 / - - - - 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 90 63 76 50 / - - - - 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 90 65 80 54 / - - - 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 65 79 52 / - - - - 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 66 81 53 / - - - - 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON AND WE HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 69 91 66 73 / 0 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 65 89 62 75 / 0 - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 67 90 64 78 / 0 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 88 61 67 / 0 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 69 94 68 85 / 0 - 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 89 64 68 / 0 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 67 91 62 82 / 0 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 66 90 63 76 / 0 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 65 90 65 80 / 0 - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 69 89 65 79 / 0 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 69 90 66 81 / 0 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN AROUND SUNRISE. OBSERVATIONS SHOWS NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40KTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE
GREATEST. THE RUC SHOWS THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS MORNING
AS MAX PRESSURE RISES MOVE ALONG THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN OUR CWA THIS MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS TOO
BRIEF AND MARGINAL TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME THOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH ANOTHER REBOUND EXPECTED TOMORROW. THERE
IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET
TOMORROW WITH THE MET IN GENERAL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. WENT
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW NOT PROVIDING MUCH DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT.
A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THOUGH
MODELS HAVE INCREASED ITS SPEED WITH AN ARRIVAL POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS MIDNIGHT. THE 24 HOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MANY LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE DAY. THUS DAYTIME HIGHS ARE HARDLY ANY
WARMER THAN MORNING LOWS ON SATURDAY AT FORECAST POINTS EAST OF
THE PECOS RIVER. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST SHOULD GET A BETTER
CHANCE TO WARM UP WITH THE LATER ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER. UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT GREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH
LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE AND A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD PROVIDE FOR POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE SLIGHT AND THUS POPS ARE LOW. CLOUDS WILL
HANG AROUND SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER COOL DAY BEFORE WEAK RIDGING
FINALLY ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BY LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR DECENT RAINFALL. DESPITE
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW...
MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN THE PAST TIMING SUCH FEATURES AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD
THE LOW WEAKEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OUR CWA WOULD BE LEFT ON THE DRY SIDE.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 76 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 78 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 20
CARLSBAD NM 80 52 92 56 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 92 57 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 83 54 93 57 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 77 51 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 75 48 85 49 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 84 50 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 78 51 86 51 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 78 52 87 51 / 0 0 0 10
WINK TX 81 53 92 56 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
80/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
639 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND
FREEZING TONIGHT AND FLURRIES/SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO
JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S TONIGHT WHICH COULD DAMAGE COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FROST FORMATION...EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT MAY DECOUPLE WHERE WINDS WOULD GO LIGHT OR CALM.
HOWEVER...THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
WILL MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY ALONG THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF
THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
2 KFT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN WITH WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN FLURRIES
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. A STRATUS
DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS CLEARING.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT IS RATHER COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES OF -1.5 TO -2...WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE RECORD LOW AT ROCHESTER IS 22 SET BACK IN
1976 AND THE RECORD FOR LA CROSSE IS 26...LAST SET BACK IN 2001.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH LOW
LYING AREAS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN ON MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S WHICH
COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON....LEADING TO HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY
ON MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S. DRY CONDITIONS...BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS. IF WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
05.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
CONUS/CANADA BORDER. THE GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GEM IS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EAST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND OFFERS A
SOLUTION THAT IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THEN PROGRESSING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST THREE RUNS...GENERATING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES IN. THE GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH DRY AND THE GEM
OFFERS A MUCH FASTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARYING
MODEL SOLUTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ONLY INT HE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
639 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WILL WORK THERE
WAY INTO KLSE AND KRST BY 00Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY GENERALLY BETWEEN 040K-050K FEET. AS THE TROUGH WORKS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AT BOTH SITES AFTER 06Z. BOTH THE 05.21Z RAP AND 05.18Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AT KRST FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 11Z-14Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT THE LOWER END
OF MVFR. MIXING AFTER 15Z WILL RESULT IN RISING CEILINGS BACK INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW 12 KNOTS THIS EVENING AT KLSE...BUT REMAIN AROUND 12
KNOTS AT KRST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z SATURDAY TO 12 TO
14 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041-
053>055-061.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-088-096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING HEAVY...WET SNOW OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS KEEPING BREEZY
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
AND MEANDER EAST...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS THE REGION IS IN
BETWEEN THE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING
TO BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NAM AND RUC LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOWS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS DECK
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND MAKING IT TO ABOUT
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THESES AREAS. LOOK FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SASKATCHEWAN AND
ALBERTA AS THE LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER JAMES BAY. PLAN ON
CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 14 TO 24 MPH. SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTER THOUGH
THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS GUSTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR SNOW SHOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
FORECAST SOUNDING ARE NOT SHOWING ENOUGH SATURATION FOR ICE ALOFT
SO THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY FREEZING
SPRINKLES DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH SATURATION FOR PRECIPITATION BUT THERE REALLY IS NOT
APPRECIABLE LIFT SO CONCERNED THAT THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH
WILL BE JUST INCREASING STRATUS AND NO PRECIPITATION. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 30S OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
CONCERNED THAT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS DECK FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN CLEAR AND DECOUPLE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...LEADING TO AN EXPANSIVE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SWITCHED
OVER TO SPRINKLES LATE IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. SEEING
THE SATURATION FOR SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT
VERY MINIMAL LIFT. THINKING THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1.5 C BASED ON THE ECMWF....WHILE
THE NAM IS SUGGESTING -2.0 C. ANOMALIES THIS LOW SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A HARD...GROWING SEASON ENDING FREEZE...WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 20S. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
04.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
PROVIDING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1146 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS.
THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER AIR
SURGING EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES
HAS LED TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING 5 KT STRONGER AS WE
APPROACH THE MAXIMUM OF DAYTIME MIXING. LOOK FOR THE GUSTS AND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT BY 01-02Z. IN
FACT...GUSTS LOOK TO END ENTIRELY AT KLSE WITH THE VALLEY AIDING
IN THE DECREASE. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING TIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO JUMP BACK UP TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT BY 15Z.
ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS A MASS OF MVFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THIS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS AROUND 3000
FT BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO FILTER INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE STRATUS IF IT DOES MOVE IN WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRATUS...HAVE
FOR NOW INCLUDED A SCT 3000 AT KRST AND 3500 AT KLSE...THINKING
THE VALLEY SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILING. MONITORING OF
THE STRATUS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY
ALONG WITH SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES...THEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL
WINDS. CONCERNS BEYOND THIS INCLUDE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT/DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A 90-95KT 300MB JET
ENTERING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SD. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP
OCCLUDING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NEB WITH EXPANSIVE DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...IR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
04.00Z MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TODAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TO ALONG
THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING...EXPECTING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 15Z AND THEN EXITING EAST OF
THE AREA AROUND NOON. NAM AND HRRR WRF SHOWING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ALONG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. NAM
DEPICTING 200-400J/KG 1-7KM MUCAPE...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN AS WELL. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING THEN PUSHING EAST AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WILL
BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS DRY
SLOT/COLD AIR ADVECTION NOSES IN. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS HITTING AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY //ZERO
TO MINUS 2C. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE OVERNIGHT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK WITH WINDS CHILL IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...ANOTHER BLUSTERY
COLD DAY WILL BE ON TAP. DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF I-94
IN BETTER PV-ADVECTION/COLDER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DIP TO AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MAKING IT
INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR
BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND
THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A
FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A
HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
04.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIPS SOUTH...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRING A LOW FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO ONTARIO
ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1146 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS.
THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER AIR
SURGING EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES
HAS LED TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING 5 KT STRONGER AS WE
APPROACH THE MAXIMUM OF DAYTIME MIXING. LOOK FOR THE GUSTS AND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT BY 01-02Z. IN
FACT...GUSTS LOOK TO END ENTIRELY AT KLSE WITH THE VALLEY AIDING
IN THE DECREASE. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING TIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO JUMP BACK UP TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT BY 15Z.
ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS A MASS OF MVFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THIS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS AROUND 3000
FT BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO FILTER INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE STRATUS IF IT DOES MOVE IN WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRATUS...HAVE
FOR NOW INCLUDED A SCT 3000 AT KRST AND 3500 AT KLSE...THINKING
THE VALLEY SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILING. MONITORING OF
THE STRATUS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1049 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.UPDATE...INTERESTING SITUATION LAID FORTH WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. AT 10Z...FRONT IS NEAR A LINE FROM SOUTH
WAYNE...TO MARXVILLE... TO GLEN OAK. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
MADISON AROUND 11 AM AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. RADAR SHOWS A
LINE OF SHOWERS JUST A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ALONG
THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWAS SW CORNER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
BEHIND THIS LINE IN EASTERN IOWA AS WELL. AS SUCH...IN THIS UPDATE
SKIES...WX...TEMP...AND WIND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED GIVEN THE FRONTS
SPEED. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO WIND FIELDS
AND REFLECTIVITY EARLY ON. AS SUCH...HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR FOR WX AND POPS FOR TIMING PURPOSES ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE TRICKY GIVEN HOW FAST THEY ARE INCREASING IN THE
SOUTHEAST. AT 1045 AM IN THE WFO SULLIVAN OFFICE...THEY ARE ALREADY
UP TO 70 F...WITH THE REST OF FAR SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY IN THE MID
60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT
ALREADY TRACKING EAST INTO THE CWA. THUS...FCST TRENDS WERE ADJUSTED
GIVEN THIS AND THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...COLD FRONT NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN TAFS STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND AND PRECIP TRENDS AND
UPDATE OR ADD MORE DETAIL TO TAFS AS NEEDED. CIGS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY MODERATE
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE MORE HEATING WILL
OCCUR.
SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
BREEZY BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
CLEARING MID CLOUDS AND RECENT -SHRA WL RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN SOME EASTERN AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MN MOVING NORTHEAST AND DRAGGING STRONG CDFNT ACROSS SRN WI
LATER THIS MRNG THRU MID-AFTN. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WL CARRY INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN WI LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BRIEFLY REACHES 1.0 AHEAD OF CDFNT. SFC DEWPTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LWR 50S WL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MUCAPES POSSIBLY REACHING 100 J/KG. STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SHRA LATER THIS MRNG IN THE
WEST...SPREADING INTO THE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH ISOLD T. RAPID
MOVEMENT OF FRONT WL RESULT IN BRIEF 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE DRIER...COLD AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND FRONT.
LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IN ERN AREAS BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT LARGE GRADIENT IN
MAX TEMP ACROSS CWA TODAY...CLOSING IN ON 80 IN SOME FAR SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS AND STAYING IN THE 60S IN THE WEST. COLD AIR SWEEPS IN
TNGT...DROPPING ALL AREAS INTO THE 30S. NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD
PREVENT FROST FORMATION. WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON EXPANDING COLD AIR
STRATUS OVER SW MN/NW IA. SHORT TERM MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS
WELL. FOR NOW WL CONTINUE WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC CLEARING FOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND TNGT.
FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE MODELS SLOWING
THE SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPECT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER ON FRIDAY. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRAPAROUND REGION OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL
BE CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. VERY DRY
AIR SHOULD INHIBIT LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CU...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
MID CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
925MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AT 4 TO 5C ON FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS IN LOWER 50S. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. LINGERING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WI FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
KEEP SFC A LITTLE MIXED...THUS LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED AROUND 30...SO FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS WI FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO EVEN COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. SATURDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS COLDEST WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND
FROM THE LAKESHORE. WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED. FREEZE HEADLINES
LIKELY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE IT FINALLY
PUSHES EAST. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY WITH AN AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADING INTO
SOUTHERN WI ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MON AND TUE...AND THEN DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR WED
BEHIND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY
SMALL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CLEARING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF -RA
EARLIER SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR A TIME IN PARTS OF THE
FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. OTRW...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG. EXPECT STRONG COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI 15Z-22Z WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTRMS IN ITS
VICINITY. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30-35 KTS EARLY THIS AFTN IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AT ERN TAF SITES.
AT THIS TIME...EXPC VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS STRATUS ASSOCD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF AREA...BUT WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON ST SHIELD ADVANCING
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND SRN MN FOR LATER TODAY AND TNGT.
MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MI THIS AFTN.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE
WIND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTN. TSTORMS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES BY AS WELL. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED IN WAKE OF FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS RELATIVELY MILDER LAKE MI WATERS. THIS WILL
CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 30-33
KNOTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
611 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY
ALONG WITH SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES...THEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL
WINDS. CONCERNS BEYOND THIS INCLUDE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT/DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A 90-95KT 300MB JET
ENTERING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SD. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP
OCCLUDING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NEB WITH EXPANSIVE DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...IR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
04.00Z MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TODAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TO ALONG
THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING...EXPECTING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 15Z AND THEN EXITING EAST OF
THE AREA AROUND NOON. NAM AND HRRR WRF SHOWING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ALONG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. NAM
DEPICTING 200-400J/KG 1-7KM MUCAPE...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN AS WELL. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING THEN PUSHING EAST AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WILL
BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS DRY
SLOT/COLD AIR ADVECTION NOSES IN. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS HITTING AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY //ZERO
TO MINUS 2C. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE OVERNIGHT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK WITH WINDS CHILL IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...ANOTHER BLUSTERY
COLD DAY WILL BE ON TAP. DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF I-94
IN BETTER PV-ADVECTION/COLDER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DIP TO AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MAKING IT
INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR
BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND
THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A
FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A
HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
04.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIPS SOUTH...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRING A LOW FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO ONTARIO
ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
611 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH KRST BY 12Z AND EXPECTED THROUGH KLSE BY 14Z. ONCE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS. THESE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH SITES FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCES STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LOOK FOR
THE SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS. THE SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT EXPECT SOME
GUSTS TO CONTINUE AT KRST THROUGH A GOOD SHARE OF THE NIGHT.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MVFR DECK FOLLOWS AN HOUR OR TWO
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER. THIS DECK SHOULD THEN
BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY
ALONG WITH SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES...THEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL
WINDS. CONCERNS BEYOND THIS INCLUDE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT/DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A 90-95KT 300MB JET
ENTERING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SD. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP
OCCLUDING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NEB WITH EXPANSIVE DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...IR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
04.00Z MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TODAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TO ALONG
THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING...EXPECTING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 15Z AND THEN EXITING EAST OF
THE AREA AROUND NOON. NAM AND HRRR WRF SHOWING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ALONG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. NAM
DEPICTING 200-400J/KG 1-7KM MUCAPE...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN AS WELL. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS
MORNING THEN PUSHING EAST AFTER NOON. OTHERWISE...BIGGER STORY WILL
BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS DRY
SLOT/COLD AIR ADVECTION NOSES IN. SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS HITTING AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY //ZERO
TO MINUS 2C. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE OVERNIGHT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK WITH WINDS CHILL IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...ANOTHER BLUSTERY
COLD DAY WILL BE ON TAP. DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF I-94
IN BETTER PV-ADVECTION/COLDER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DIP TO AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MAKING IT
INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR
BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND
THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A
FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A
HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
04.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIPS SOUTH...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRING A LOW FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO ONTARIO
ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1152 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST TONIGHT/THURSDAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TAF SITES. TIMING STILL EXPECTED
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AT KRST AND 15Z-16Z AT KLSE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND THUS ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES. ALSO...WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID BACK OFF ON ANY MVFR CEILINGS
OPTING INSTEAD TO JUST WITH A SCATTERED DECK. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL MIX HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS AT BOTH SITES BETWEEN 17Z-02Z...WITH
THE WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z...ALTHOUGH REMAINING AT
OR ABOVE 12 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
300 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FRIGID CANADIAN
AIRMASS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SOME CLOUD COVER BEING INDICATED IN THE
MODELS WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECASTS DURING
THIS COLD SNAP HOWEVER. SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE NEW 00Z EURO CAME IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WARM
AIR ADVECTION RAINS ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONTAL RAINS THURS
NIGHT. BOTH 00Z RUNS STILL INDICATE A THERMAL RIDGE ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BATTLE TUESDAY TO TRY TO BE OUR WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK /MID- UPPER 60S/...HOWEVER STILL BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE
DEPARTED OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST
WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING
IN OUR NW COUNTIES. GBG ALREADY HIT 31 BY 0730Z...SO THINGS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW THIS MORNING.
07Z SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT CLOUD
LAYER DISSIPATING DUE TO MIXING TODAY...AND HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP BRINGS THAT CLOUD LAYER AS FAR
SOUTH AS PIA/BMI...WHILE THE HRRR DOES NOT. ANOTHER AREA OF AC/CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM THE KANSAS AREA ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL TODAY...AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT
HIGHS MAY BE TRIMMED EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES IF WE ONLY SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO TREND THAT WAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
NOT CLEARING OUT AT ALL...OR VERY LATE. WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH
OF I-72 WILL HAVE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THEIR LOW TEMPS THE COLDEST. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER HAS LED TO NOT ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SAT
NIGHT.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHORT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH AROUND 60 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAYS WARM-UP WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...PROJECTED TO REACH OUR
COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE GFS/EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL IL ON TUES NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-55. WE DIMINISHED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF THE IL RIVER TO INDICATE THAT
TREND.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BACK DOWN IN THE
VICINITY OF MONDAYS HIGHS OF AROUND 60/LOW 60S. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST-SW LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT. SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL ALREADY DEVELOP WED NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS WED NIGHT ABOVE FROST CONDITIONS...NEAR
40. THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A MID
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
THAT AFFECTS CENTRAL IL. AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THAT COLD FRONT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST
SOUTH OF CLAY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 50S.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THEN HIGH CIRRUS WILL ADVECTING OVER
THE SITES TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT ADVECT INTO
THE SITES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING SO DID NOT ADD
BR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS...THEN
DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036-
037-040-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND CONTINUE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM...WITH 0600 UTC NAM AND RUC THE ONLY MODELS COMING CLOSE
TO CAPTURING THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA. UNCLEAR WHEN/IF THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER
ENTIRE AREAS. CONSENSUS WAS TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WARNING GIVEN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT OR BELOW 30 EXCEPT FOR THE
WICHITA METRO.
SUN-MON:
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AND INCREASES ON MON. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT.
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASUREABLE RAIN...BUT A
ROGUE SPRINKLE IN HARPER COUNTY IS POSSIBLE.
TUE-FRI:
FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE..WHICH IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC...IS THE
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FURTHER SOUTH...LEADING TO SMALLER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
MAY FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON THU AHEAD OF FRONT.
-HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
RENEWED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MID LEVEL
SATURATION AND EVENTUAL STRATUS BUILD DOWN MAY LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN FOR SAT AFTN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AND SOUTHEAST KS...AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS STRATUS BUILD DOWN...WITH THE RAIN
CHANCE....MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KICT AND KCNU. WILL
INSERT SOME VCSH FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KCNU TAF SITES FOR THIS RAIN
CHANCE.
THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ALL CEILINGS BECOMING
VFR AFTER 21Z/SAT...WITH CLEARING SKIES SAT EVENING.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 20 0 10 10
NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELL 48 27 56 36 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 48 27 56 35 / 20 0 10 10
SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 10 0 0
CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 10 0 0
IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA AND WYOMING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THE RADAR MOSAIC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BAND OF
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
AT GARDEN CITY OUT OF THESE RADAR RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES
THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE
FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT
AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES
AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY
EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THIS TAF UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES AT GARDEN CITY AND HAYS THROUGH 12Z AND ALSO AT DODGE
CITY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEARING BY THE LATE PERIODS OF THE TAFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 28 57 34 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 43 27 57 33 / 20 10 10 0
EHA 44 30 55 36 / 20 10 10 0
LBL 44 30 55 35 / 20 10 10 0
HYS 46 28 57 34 / 20 0 0 0
P28 49 29 59 35 / 10 0 0 0
&&
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
107 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACK TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MIDWEST FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO BRING THEM TO CURRENT
READINGS AS THEY ARE HOLDING STEADY. A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN SETS LATER ON. ADDED FOG TO ALL
AREAS AND BEEFED IT UP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AS
VSBYS ARE VARIABLE FROM 2 TO 1/2 MILES. FURTHER NORTH, JUST PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. POPS WERE
ADJUSTED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN USING THE 21Z SREF
WHICH IS MATCHING WELL W/THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
CROSSES THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE FAIRLY ABUNDANT WITH THIS FRONT, SO THE RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A HALF TO THREE- QUARTERS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE
DOWNEAST MAINE WILL SEE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. WITH ALL THE
MOISTURE AROUND, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE,
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT MAKES
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE
QUITE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN MAINE WILL
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S AND UPPER 50S, BUT THOSE AREAS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST MAINE, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING AND QPF SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONTAL
RN/SHWRS SAT EVE SHOULD SLOWLY END NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
LOW PRES SYSTEMS LATE SAT NGT THRU MIDDAY SUN WITH SOME CLRG.
ANOTHER S/WV ALF PROPAGATING NE FROM THE MID ATLC STATES/CNTRL
APPLCHNS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MSLY RN ACROSS THE FA
BEGINNING LATE SUN AFTN OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA AND ENDING MON MORN
ACROSS XTRM NE PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS ALF IN THE 925-850 LAYER AND
THE SFC-500 M LAYER OVR WEST PTNS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY FALL LOW
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PD OF RN/SN MIXED BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 MSL
AND ALL SN AOA 2500 FT MSL LATE SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS XPCTD BLO 2500 FT MSL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE AOA 2500 FT OVER THE CNTRL MAINE HIGHLANDS AND BAXTER
STATE PARK.
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NW SIG QPF WILL XTND NW
OF THE SFC LOW GIVEN THE OPENNESS AND FAIRLY RAPID PROGRESSION OF
THE S/WV ALF...WE DID NOT MENTION ACCUMULATIONS ATTM IN THE FCST
WORDING ATTM. WE DID BLEND ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE 05/00Z DTMNSTC
ECMWF...WHICH BY FAR THE MOST NW WITH SIG QPF AND SLOWEST TO END
PRECIP ON MON. IF MOST OF THE OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER OVR THE NW AND END FASTER OVR THE
ALL OF THE FA ERLY MON MORN. SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST BEGIN TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR BY MON AFTN ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW EXITING THRU THE MARITIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY IN MANY SPOTS AND A
FROST IS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AND A SOUTH BREEZE
INCREASES. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONTO THE EAST COAST. A STRONGER LOW
MAY APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL SURGE IN FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND BY SATURDAY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT NORTHERN SPOTS AS SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY CHILLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, THEN ALL SITES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR DUE TO
RAIN, LOW CEILINGS, AND FOG, MOSTLY AFTER 06Z. DON`T EXPECT A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH CEILINGS MAY
OCCASIONALLY LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: BRIEF IFR/LOW MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES ERLY
IN RN/RN SHWRS SAT EVE WILL IMPROVE VFR BEHIND THE FRONT OVRNGT
SAT NGT. VFR WILL CONT SUN THEN LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR SUN NGT
CONTG INTO ERLY MON MORN IN RN...WITH RN/SN MIXED POSSIBLE LATE
SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN AT KFVE. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL SITES BY MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATTE TUE NGT INTO WED WITH SHWRS WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. GUSTS OF 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM: INITIALLY...SCA CONDITIONS OVR OUTER WATERS WILL CONT
FROM NEAR TERM THRU ABOUT 4 AM SUN MORN...WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING BLO SCA CRITERIA AFTWRDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
MON. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1205 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS COME INTO OUR NORTHWEST DELTA REGION A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO HAVE SOME DECENT GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KGLH HAS HAD WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THUS
COOLER TEMPS THAN EXPECTED HAVE COME INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION.
KGLH IS ALREADY 58 DEGREES. 40S WERE OBSERVED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS.
SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THE NORTH HALF AND INCREASED THE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS
SHOULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.
POPS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS./17/
&&
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO JUST
SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. 01Z TEMP AT MONTICELLO AR WAS 75 WHILE IT WAS 55
AT LITTLE ROCK. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH IS RATHER
SCATTERED RIGHT NOW...IS EITHER RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTORMS. THE RUC AND HRRR
ARE BOTH INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POSTFRONTAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
IN NWRN ZONES. MOISTURE...OR THE LACK THEREOF...IS A BIG LIMITING
FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z KJAN RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF ONLY
0.62 INCHES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST PAST THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND
REACHING THE JACKSON METRO AREA RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. THE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO NO
MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE. HOURLY FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO
ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS THIS TAF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A
SOLID WIND SHIFT AS WINDS BECOME NW/N...MVFR CEILINGS ( N
SECTIONS)...AND SOME ISO/SCT SHRA ( N SECTIONS). AS FOR FRONTAL
TIMING...GLH LOOKS TO SEE IT BY 05Z AND GLH BY 06Z. THAT IS A TAD
FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHER SITES (JAN/GTR) WILL SEE THE
FRONT CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SAY BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE E/SE AREAS WILL
HAVE THE FROPA LATER IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NORTHERN
SITES...ESP GLH/GWO...WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME SHRA. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL SEE CEILINGS...BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE OF THE VFR
VARIETY AND OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE DAY SAT. /CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CAA WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE DELTA BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE PINE BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT COULD
BRUSH MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED MOSTLY
BY THE COOLER WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS THE DELTA...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PINE BELT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT FALL AS LOW AS POTENTIALLY COULD
BE AS CLOUDS WILL HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE WAS
REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. /28/
LONG TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY THE ENSEMBLES AND MOST LONG RANGE MODELS
AGREE THAT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A STRONG
SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE DELTA REGION...WHICH WILL BECOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO GMOS...MEX AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS GENERALLY TOO COOL
DURING THE DAY AND TOO WARM AT NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT KEPT THE
CURRENT COOLER FORECAST AS MODELS SEEMED TO BE A LITTLE WARM.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO A BLEND
OF GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE. THE EURO WAS DRY FOR MIDWEEK...BUT HAD
HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY./17/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/CME/28/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT TO
VFR. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS A
WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS THE
THERMAL FORCING RELAXES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND
THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS...WRF...NAM...GEM AND 00Z
ECM. HOWEVER THE LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR SOLNS ARE SUGGESTING A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THE 18Z NAM IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE GEMREG KEEPING THE BEST FORCING AND SNOW
SOUTHWEST AND ITS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE RAP AND HRRR TO BE OFF BUT
THE RADAR TRENDS ARE OF CONCERN. A QPF BLEND OF THE MODELS ABOVE
AND A 10 TO 1 RATIO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY
ASSUMING BRIDGES AND ROAD SURFACES DONT CROSS THE FREEZING MARK
OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE LEAVES A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY.
OTHER AREAS WEST REMAIN OVERCAST AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE
ALREADY HAD A FREEZE.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH CANADA. A BLEND OF NAM AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM12 BIAS
CORRECTION PRODUCED LOWS IN THE TEENS IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE 20S FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS
AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS IS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE BEYOND FRIDAY...SO DRY
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH
PERHAPS ONLY 50S BY FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AND THEN
POTENTIALLY MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT...AND BY EARLY
EVENING MOSTLY JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KAIA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME VERY HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTED RH BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NEZ059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
445 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING US
RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL
BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM
AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR
STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING.
TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND
VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE
THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN
EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL
COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US
THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE
PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING
EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C
TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH
850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850
TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP NY TERMINALS 06Z TO 12Z AS A CDFNT
MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO
AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS
FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN
TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A
BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP TMRW AFTN BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10
KTS...INCRSNG BY THIS AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGING WITH IT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS AND SHOW A
SHARPER DEFINED EDGE BETWEEN RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO DRY
WEATHER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW..
1015 PM UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MESO-
SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS SFC WAVE
ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF PA. WILL ADJUST POPS TO REFLECT THIS TREND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A WET SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NRN TIER OF PA.
7 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA TO ERN NY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AN INDIAN SUMMER DAY PREVAILING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...VARIOUS FCST MODELS HAVE
OVERDONE THE QPF FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE
CLOSEST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL QUITE A WAYS TO THE WEST. THAT
SAID...VARIOUS HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
SUGGEST SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC-CHC MENTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT
DAYS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT IS FCST TO BECOME
MORE ANAFRONTISH AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MENTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE MORNING WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH QPF TOTALS LARGELY REMAINING UNDER A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW WHICH
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN ATTENTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS COLD
AIR COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LONG WESTERLY FETCH CREATES MARGINAL
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AS FLOW WILL TAKE ON A 280-290 DEGREE CONFIGURATION. INVERSION
HEIGHTS BY 12Z SUN WILL BORDER NEAR 10 KFT WITH INCREASING
LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY EARLY SUN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE DEVELOPING BAND IS ABLE TO EXTEND AS THE NAM MAINTAINS ALMOST
A PURE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BIT MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
PRECIP MENTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST TO INCLUDE
THE GREATER SYR AREA.
BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGGED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE COAST OF VIRGINA BEACH. WITH TIME ON SUN THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW
THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE
NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST WEST. UNDER THE GFS AND ECMWF/S
SCENARIO...THE BULK OF RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THIS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
WILL EXIST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AS SFC RIDGING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP NY TERMINALS 06Z TO 12Z AS A CDFNT
MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT A BAND OF SHRA AND ASSCD MVFR/IFR TO
AFFECT TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME AS THE BAND MOVS
FROM W TO E...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TMRW AFTN STARTING AT WRN
TERMINALS SITES IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A
BKN STRATO-CU DEC WILL DVLP TMRW AFTN BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED. WINDS TNGT RATHER VRBL BUT OVERALL W TO SW WINDS < 10
KTS...INCRSNG BY THIS AFTN OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10-20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. FALL WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL
SWING FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL ENSURE A LOCALLY
COOL AIRMASS FOR NY LASTING SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OVER NEW YORK AT 03Z EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE BUFFALO AREA THEN FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TO AKRON OHIO. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S EAST OF THE
FRONT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE FRONT.
STEADY ANA-FRONTAL RAIN BAND STILL JUST WEST OF WNY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
STEADIER RAIN IS YET TO COME AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL
FORCING PROVIDED BY STRONG JET AT 500 MB STREAMING OVER THE THE
LOWER LAKES REGION. 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR MODELS ALONG WITH SREF
ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE BAND OF STEADIER
RAIN ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT
A 9 HOUR WINDOW FOR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. FOR WNY AND SOUTHERN TIER
THIS IS 04-13Z...FOR FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTY 06-15Z. QPF
FORECAST IN LINE WITH HPC WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERHAPS THE TUG HILL AREA UNDER THE
HIGHEST QPF...WITH AMOUNTS NEARING OR EVEN EXCEEDING AN INCH...WITH
LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF
TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN
TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT 750MB
WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWING A DRYING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BUT
MOIST AIRMASS NEAR THE CAP. SO MAINLY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EAST
OF LAKE ERIE /CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS/ AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
GOOD MIXING /BREEZY/ AND MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...ABOUT 15-20F
COOLER THAN FRIDAY MAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE WITH LOWERING
TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BRINGING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE RESPONSES ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN
FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AND UPPER
30S INLAND WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING.
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A LAKE/DIURNAL
HYBRID AS THE DAY WEARS ON. COOL DAY FOR SURE WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAR INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
VARY LITTLE...BUT BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE WEAK RIDGING AND A MORE
WEST TO WSW WIND AND LIGHTER GRADIENT. WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
RESPONSE...AND ALSO EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS IN AREAS OF CLEARING
SKIES...ESP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE FREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING A CRISP
AND DRY MONDAY...THEN THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BRING A MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS...PRECLUDING THE WORRY OF ANOTHER
SUBFREEZING NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL...AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND WARMER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...BUT THIS WILL COME AT A COST AS THE WARMER AIR WILL
PRESAGE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK. THE FRONT
IS WELL DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS TO IFR AND LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AROUND 12-15Z SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS 20-30KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE
WSW OR W.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE...THE UPPER
NIAGARA AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT
WITH A GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY HAVE LEFT CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES UP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TOGETHER WITH RELATIVELY LAKE TEMPERATURES ADJACENT TO A
COOL AIRMASS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
EXCEEDING 3-7 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
WSW 15-25KTS SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH
ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE
WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO
OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE
OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG
STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT
CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER AS SEEN
THROUGH VARIOUS MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND AS WILL THE TIGHTEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL...PROBABLY MOSTLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS WHERE IT OCCURS
AT ALL. FROPA ITSELF MAY BE GENERALLY RAIN-FREE EXCEPT FOR SOME
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE
TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM THE MOST. THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER WILL BE THE UNDERCUTTING COOL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SETS UP
THAT PREVENTS JUST ABOUT ANY AND ALL WARMING UP ON MONDAY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE MID 60S AS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE EVER PRESENT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
PERSIST. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE NOT FAILED TO REACH 70 SINCE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY A TRANSITIONAL DAY FROM THE CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ASSOC WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE FROM THE SHORT
TERM TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE MAIN WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT A SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND. HOW MUCH OF ITS ASSOC LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL AIR REMAINS INTACT ON TUESDAY IS DIFFICULT
TO ASCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT GETS SCOURED OUT
WEDNESDAY THOUGH BY ANOTHER FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUT AN END TO THE TREND OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND
CAUSE THE LONG TERM TO END WITH A RETURN OF COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUPPORTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY
DROPPING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS...08-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KLBT AND KFLO. ONCE
FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO MON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY
RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER
IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND
MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT
10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY
DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO
12 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS START THE
PERIOD BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...A LITTLE LATER OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AS IT WILL BE DECELERATING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL KICK UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. AS THIS GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A FURTHER BUILDING OF SEAS WILL OCCUR, MAINLY WELL
AWAY FROM THE COAST DUE TO THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHETHER OR NOT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS 5 FT SEAS
MAY LINGER JUST OUTSIDE OF FRYING PAN SHOALS. SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR
TO BE SAFER AS WAVE SHADOWING OFF OF CAPE FEAR KEEPS SEAS A BIT
SMALLER FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR CORNER OF AMZ 256. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND SO HAVE
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THUS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES HAS SIMILARLY INCREASED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS STILL IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ITS
TEMPORAL PERSISTENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING 5 FT SCEC-WORTHY
SEAS INTO PART OR ALL OF THE FORECAST ZONES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN HIGH LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS WILL SIMILARLY ABATE BY ABOUT A FOOT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
141 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR 1 MORE DAY...THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY
PUSH ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE
WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO
OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE
OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG
STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT
CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER AS SEEN
THROUGH VARIOUS MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONE MORE DAY...RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FROPA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
A SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE ATTAINED
THOUGH MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
PRECIPITATION. POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. A 500 MB DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SURFACE DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY...
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PRESSES OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS WILL
BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS BARELY
REACHING THE MID 60S FROM LUMBERTON TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON.
USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERBATIM WOULD SUGGEST
SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALTHOUGH WITH DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ABSENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES
MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO MONDAY. COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHS EARLIER
GAVE US SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISE SKY COVER FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND "BRIDGES" WITH THE
OLD CANADIAN HIGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SPOTS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 11-14 C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUPPORTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY
DROPPING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS...08-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KLBT AND KFLO. ONCE
FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO MON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY
RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER
IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND
MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT
10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY
DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO
12 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT W TO SW FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ADVISORY
FLAGS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RUN 2 FT OR SO INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES BACK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY WILL CREATE 15-20
KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND HIGH BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE FIRST COOL AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON TO MOVE
OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WATER
AND THE AIR WILL BE RATHER LARGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...RJD/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR 1 MORE DAY...THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY
PUSH ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST COOLEST AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE
WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS TO
OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K FEET. WENT A DEGREE
OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF 80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG
STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT
CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER AS SEEN
THROUGH VARIOUS MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONE MORE DAY...RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FROPA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
A SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE ATTAINED
THOUGH MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
PRECIPITATION. POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. A 500 MB DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SURFACE DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY...
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PRESSES OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS WILL
BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS BARELY
REACHING THE MID 60S FROM LUMBERTON TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON.
USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERBATIM WOULD SUGGEST
SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALTHOUGH WITH DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ABSENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES
MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO MONDAY. COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHS EARLIER
GAVE US SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISE SKY COVER FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND "BRIDGES" WITH THE
OLD CANADIAN HIGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SPOTS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 11-14 C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LINGERING CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED TO GO CALM OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH EARLIER FOG
ONSET LIKELY AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND KCRE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AN INLAND TERMINALS.
ONCE FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PARTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY
RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER
IT. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND
BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND
MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT
10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY
DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO
12 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT W TO SW FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ADVISORY
FLAGS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RUN 2 FT OR SO INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES BACK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY WILL CREATE 15-20
KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND HIGH BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE FIRST COOL AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON TO MOVE
OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WATER
AND THE AIR WILL BE RATHER LARGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
818 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG CANADIAN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THAT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE
WSW-W...AND WITH TIME THE CI/CIRROCU FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BOTH THIN OUT AND GET SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR EVEN WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 25K TO 35K
FEET. WENT A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER FOR TONIGHTS MINS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY...AND THE
SHORES OF WINYAH BAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLUENCE OF
80 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FOG
STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. AM NOT
CONVINCED OF THIS...WITH THE MAIN PROBLEM OF BEING NOT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 950 MB LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONE MORE DAY...RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FROPA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
A SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE ATTAINED
THOUGH MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
PRECIPITATION. POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. A 500 MB DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SURFACE DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY...
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PRESSES OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS WILL
BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS BARELY
REACHING THE MID 60S FROM LUMBERTON TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON.
USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERBATIM WOULD SUGGEST
SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALTHOUGH WITH DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ABSENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES
MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO MONDAY. COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHS EARLIER
GAVE US SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISE SKY COVER FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND "BRIDGES" WITH THE
OLD CANADIAN HIGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SPOTS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 11-14 C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LINGERING CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED TO GO CALM OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH EARLIER FOG
ONSET LIKELY AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND KCRE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AN INLAND TERMINALS.
ONCE FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PARTIALLY
DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY RELAXED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER IT. THE
NAM AND HRRR BOTH PARTIALLY INDICATE A POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SSTS NEAR 80...AND MIN TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE. WINDS
FROM THE POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE WILL RUN W TO NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 2 FT...AND MAINLY DOMINATED BY
A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10 TO 12
SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT W TO SW FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ADVISORY
FLAGS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RUN 2 FT OR SO INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES BACK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY WILL CREATE 15-20
KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND HIGH BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE FIRST COOL AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON TO MOVE
OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WATER
AND THE AIR WILL BE RATHER LARGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
426 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
OVER THE COLD AIR...BRINGING A WET AND COLD DAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO TENNESSEE. THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FEATURE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 19-21Z.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR FOR THIS FRONT...LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
VERY WEAK. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY WILL ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES WERE THE HIGHS POPS CONTINUE TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ELSEWHERE.
BIGGER CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPS. EURO MOS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE THE GFS OR NAM MOS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING ALL OF THESE MODELS HAVE HAD A WARM BIAS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. KRLX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 25-35KT WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
INCLUDED SOME 20KT+ WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
BY 12Z SUNDAY...HELPS CREATE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER A SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...RESULTING IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AFTER 06Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE AND LOCALLY DERIVED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SEVERAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...ALBEIT NOTHING
MAJOR. IN GENERAL...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. WITH AN ACTIVE KINEMATIC...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EVIDENT. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL PERSIST WITHIN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LEAVING MUCH OF OUR CWA IN A
TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. AT LEAST THREE
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO IMPACT THE CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. FIRST...A VERY WET COLD DAY IS IN ORDER FOR SUN AS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...THANKS TO
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF SAT. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A SOLID LIGHT RAIN/OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN
EVENT FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUN.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE...WITH IT NOW EXITING THE CWA ABOUT 6 HRS SOONER
THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY. HENCE...A SIGNIFICANT GRADATION IN POPS
FROM 100 EARLY MORNING TO LESS THAN 20 ONLY ACROSS THE EAST BY
EVENING. QPF REMAINS VERY MODEST DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.0 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...SO NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AND SOLID RAIN SUN...TEMPS WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE...STAYING
MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 50S PIEDMONT REGION. THERE IS SOME
MINOR CONCERN FOR S- IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR WV
MOUNTAINS...NOTING THAT RLX HAS INCLUDED S- ACROSS POCAHONTAS
COUNTY. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP INTO THE -2C RANGE SUN ACROSS THIS
REGION...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH TO ANY EXTENT.
THUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF S- AT THIS POINT.
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM NO MORE EXITS TO THE EAST BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM AL/GA ACROSS SC/NC IN
THE 12Z MON TO 00Z TUE TIME FRAME. LATEST MODEL RUNS...PARTICULARLY
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER NORTH AND SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO ALLEVIATE CONSIDERABLY THE CONCERN FOR FROST/FREEZE MON
MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF JUST PATCHY FROST TO OUR WV
VALLEYS FOR MON MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS NEARLY
EVERY CLOUD SCHEME ATTEMPTED TO GIVE ME 100 PERCENT CLOUD COVER
MON MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...HAVE INTRODUCED
-RA FROM NW NC INTO THE SE VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES FOR MON IN
ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST THINKING AND THE FAIRLY HEALTHY DYNAMICS
EXHIBITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS WITH SUN...THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE
AGAIN PLAY HAVOC WITH MAX TEMPS MON...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COLDEST READINGS I COULD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...WITHOUT GOING OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. SOME
OF OUR SE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE UPPER
40S.
BY TUE MORNING...THIS LATER SYSTEM HAS EXITED THE REGION AND THE
PARENT CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED INTO CENTRAL VA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO NONE AT THIS POINT...AND AS OF
NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
FROST AND/OR FREEZE. BY THE SAME TOKEN...THE WESTERN
AREAS...USUALLY THE COLDEST...WILL BEGIN TO SEE RETURN FLOW...SO
BY THIS POINT FROST/FREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORMALLY
SHELTERED...PROTECTED AND DECOUPLED SPOTS.
BY WED...A NORTHERN STREAM/ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM PROMISES TO
BRING MORE CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME MORE -RA TO THE REGION.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
REINFORCING SHORTS OF COOL AIR AND A PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC NW
FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST...MAINLY THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ALLOWING WARM
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA ON A SOUTHERLY WIND TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ONLY PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
NEXT FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IF
THE FRONT IS SLOWER OR BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN ENTERS FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT FOLLOWED
THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM
12-16Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KBLF
FOR SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING.
THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS KBLF/KLWB BETWEEN 12-14Z...KBCB
BETWEEN 14-16Z...KROA 15-17Z...KLYH 16-18Z...AND DAN 19Z-21Z.
ONLY A PASSING SHOWER EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND NO PRECIP WAS INCLUDED AT ANY TAF SITES FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF
VA/NC. A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT (AFTER 06Z) THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR BY
SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING WITH PERIOD OF POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR CLEARING SKIES MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR...WHICH SERVES ROANOKE AND THE SURROUNDING
AREAS...WILL REMAIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE INSTALLATION
OF THE NEW DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY CONTINUES. THE RADAR MAY RETURN TO
SERVICE AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...WAKEFIELD VA
(KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
(KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PH
EQUIPMENT...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
139 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BY
SUNDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE COLD AIR...BRINGING A COLD WET DAY TO THE
REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE.
MODELS STILL BRING FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.
MADE MINOR CHANGES IN TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE TO NO ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...PROVIDING THE
TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HEADED IN OUR
DIRECTION. AS OF 4PM FRIDAY...FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS OH TO PADUCAH KY CMH-PAH. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP WAS CONFINED TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH...SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE FRONT FCST
TO PASS THROUGH THE BLUEFIELD/LEWISBURG CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12-15Z
(8-11AM) SATURDAY...ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG/BOONE/BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 14-17Z (10AM-1PM)...LYNCHBURG/MARTINSVILLE BETWEEN 16-19Z
(NOON- 3PM)...THEN THROUGH DANVILLE BETWEEN 19Z-22Z (3PM-6PM).
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS LIMITING POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. MODEL QPF OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS IS FORECAST...POPS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN CWA ALONG THE
WINDWARD SLOPES...AND LOWEST ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY. WARMEST
READINGS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
WHERE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THE LATEST. COOLEST READINGS ARE
ADVERTISED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN VA WHERE THE FRONT
WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY WILL STALL
OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE AREA STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...EXITING BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE
REGION A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY. WITH THIS RAIN COMING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND FALLING MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT (ANAFRONT)...DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. A SECOND
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL KICK THE
FRONT FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR 40F IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FROST...HOWEVER...THE
GROUND MAY BE TOO WET AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK
OVER THE AREA. I HAVE LEFT IN SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS WITH SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY...THEREFORE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST...MAINLY THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ALLOWING WARM
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA ON A SOUTHERLY WIND TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ONLY PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
NEXT FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IF
THE FRONT IS SLOWER OR BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN ENTERS FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED CLOUDS WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT FOLLOWED
THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM
12-16Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KBLF
FOR SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING.
THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS KBLF/KLWB BETWEEN 12-14Z...KBCB
BETWEEN 14-16Z...KROA 15-17Z...KLYH 16-18Z...AND DAN 19Z-21Z.
ONLY A PASSING SHOWER EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND NO PRECIP WAS INCLUDED AT ANY TAF SITES FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF
VA/NC. A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT (AFTER 06Z) THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR BY
SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING WITH PERIOD OF POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR CLEARING SKIES MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR...WHICH SERVES ROANOKE AND THE SURROUNDING
AREAS...WILL REMAIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE INSTALLATION
OF THE NEW DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY CONTINUES. THE RADAR MAY RETURN TO
SERVICE AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...WAKEFIELD VA
(KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
(KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PH
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
921 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A NICE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND SNOWFALL ALL THE WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SO EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL 3 PM. ALSO EXPANDED IT EASTWARD
INTO PHILLIPS/SEDGWICK COUNTIES BASED ON SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PRESENT TRAJECTORY OF SNOW BAND.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR IS STUCK IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WERE JUST NOW FINALLY APPROACHING THE FORT COLLINS/GREELEY
CORRIDOR WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT. WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF RELEASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUT ONLY WHEN WE TURN
WINDS SUFFICIENTLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS FOR THE WEAK LIFT NECESSARY.
THAT NOW LOOKS CLOSER TO NOONTIME/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
DENVER/BOULDER AREA IF WE WERE TO SEE THE SHOWERS GENERATE. LATEST
RUC AND HRRR TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOW CLOUDS ARE REALLY
SOCKED IN WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES OF 1-3 MILES IN FOG ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS JUST SLIGHTLY. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTIVE AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
19Z-22Z. MOST LIKELY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ACCUMULATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...A RATHER STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NERN CO TODAY. DECENT QG ASCENT AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NERN PLAINS THRU 18Z WITH DECREASING VALUES BY AFTN. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
ALONG THE WYOMING-NEBRASKA BORDER SE ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS
GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY TO WIGGINS TO LAST CHANCE LINE. SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES SO WILL LEAVE WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS LOW LVL WINDS THRU MIDDAY
WILL BE MORE NNW SO CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
GREAT ESPECIALLY FM THE SRN SUBURBS OF DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SRN FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS THERE IS VERY DRY
WEST OF THE DIVIDE SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO
WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE RGN WHILE A
SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. MOISTURE WITH THIS 2ND FEATURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH ITS PASSAGE. LOW TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 20S ACROSS NERN CO SO WILL KEEP HARD FREZE WARNING IN PLACE.
LONG TERM...THE LAST WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE DAY AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 0C. NORTHERN
COLORADO WILL CONTINUE UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE THERE IS ONE LAST RIPPLE WHICH WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH HIGH TEMPS COOLING BACK INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS WEAK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS DRY SO NO POPS ON TUESDAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS BROAD CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BY MID WEEK WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN A BIT OF MOISTURE AND MAYBE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SURPRISINGLY...BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS EJECT AND WEAKEN
THE LOW ACROSS COLORADO ON LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
THERE IS SOME MOSITURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IF INDEED THE
LOW DOES PUSH OUT. NO COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION...THERE IS A DENVER CYCONE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
STAY TO THE SSE OF THE AIRPORT. AS A RESULT WILL SEE LIFR
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 16Z WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTN. AS TALKED ABOUT ABV APPEARS ANY SNOW AT THE AIRPORT WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. BY LATE AFTN SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENE THIS MORNING BOUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE NNE BY MIDDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESE.
OVERNIGHT THE NAM SHOWS A POSSIBLE WK DENVER CYCLONE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT 09Z THROUGH 14Z.
AFTER 14Z THE NAM SHOWS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR COMING IN WHICH WOULD
CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR COZ038>051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ042-
044-048>051.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS BURNED OFF...AND
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION FROM 18-00Z...MOST
OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. 12Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR BOTH AGREE WITH PRECIP WEAKENING AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF.
WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE CHC OF PCPN...SIDED WITH THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND
THE EXTENT OF PCPN FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSING TO THE NORTH...JUST EAST OF THE CWA LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS AGREEING OF PCPN OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME
TO CATEGORICAL...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURRING. THE
QUESTION NOW REMAINS IS THE INTENSITY...WITH MANY SREF MEMBERS
KEEPING THE RAINFALL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. SO KEPT THINGS DRY
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN DELAYED POPS SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
MORNING TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LOW.
THE MAIN MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ACT AS DECENT TRIGGER TO GET THE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO
KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR BEGINS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...WITH
850MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW
TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN AGAIN ON
SUN...TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S...REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRYING OUT THE LEVELS...ONLY KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE BROAD HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE
WED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN US. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT. SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TUES NIGHT...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR DURING THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN AT THE SURFACE...AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR AND QUIET DAY. THE
QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...WITH THE MODELS BRINGING THROUGH
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TIMING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. IF THE 00Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION
DOES END UP HAPPENING...WE COULD ALSO BE SEEING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM FLUCTUATE A BIT...WITH COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK UNDER THE BROAD HIGH.
EACH TIME WE RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...THEN
DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE. USED A BLEND OF
MOS/HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED AT THE CITY TERMINALS IN THE 20-21Z
TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.
VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR KSWF. REMOVED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED.
SW FLOW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT VEERS WEST RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT BEFORE SETTLING NW...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS SHOULD END
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH THIS...WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED
A SCA FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SEAS REACHING 5 FT. THE
REST OF THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SUB SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE BEING MID WEEK WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIP TOTALS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
BASIN AVERAGES OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM EVENT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1018 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS BURNED OFF...AND
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION FROM 18-00Z...MOST
OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. 12Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR BOTH AGREE WITH PRECIP WEAKENING AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF.
WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE CHC OF PCPN...SIDED WITH THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND
THE EXTENT OF PCPN FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSING TO THE NORTH...JUST EAST OF THE CWA LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS AGREEING OF PCPN OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME
TO CATEGORICAL...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURRING. THE
QUESTION NOW REMAINS IS THE INTENSITY...WITH MANY SREF MEMBERS
KEEPING THE RAINFALL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. SO KEPT THINGS DRY
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN DELAYED POPS SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
MORNING TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING FOR THE TIMING OF THE LOW.
THE MAIN MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ACT AS DECENT TRIGGER TO GET THE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO
KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR BEGINS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...WITH
850MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW
TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN AGAIN ON
SUN...TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S...REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRYING OUT THE LEVELS...ONLY KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE BROAD HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE
WED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN US. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT. SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TUES NIGHT...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR DURING THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN AT THE SURFACE...AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR AND QUIET DAY. THE
QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...WITH THE MODELS BRINGING THROUGH
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TIMING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. IF THE 00Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION
DOES END UP HAPPENING...WE COULD ALSO BE SEEING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM FLUCTUATE A BIT...WITH COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK UNDER THE BROAD HIGH.
EACH TIME WE RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...THEN
DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE. USED A BLEND OF
MOS/HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 14 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24
KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS WHERE THE WIND IN AROUND 310 TRUE WITH THE FRONT IN THE
VICINITY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH THIS...WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED
A SCA FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SEAS REACHING 5 FT. THE
REST OF THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SUB SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE BEING MID WEEK WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIP TOTALS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
BASIN AVERAGES OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM EVENT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER/UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CHECKING IN EVEN COOLER THAN FRIDAY AT -9C.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.9 INCHES OR
MORE. INFRARED/IR AND FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING
THINNING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM BREVARD OSCEOLA COUNTIES
NORTH AND TO THE WEST. RUC13 250MB JET SPEED ANALYSIS INDICATING A
JET MAX TO THE NORTH AND THE 500MB VORTICITY PLOT WAS SHOWING
SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXES MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY THE INITIALLY THICK CLOUD COVER
BUT ONCE THE CLOUDINESS THINS OUT MORE TOWARD NOON THE COMBINATION
OF THE SUN BEING HIGHER IN THE SKY...HEATING WILL START IN EARNEST.
ALREADY WARM WITH 9AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND
MOIST ENOUGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS THESE WINDS
START MIXING DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING THEY WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MORNING UPDATE TO THE WIND GRIDS AND PROGRESSION OF WEATHER DURING
THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
TODAY...COPIOUS MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER 1.9 INCHES) WILL COMBINE
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING
TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING OVER EC FL. SFC
HEATING WILL BE BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WHILE
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
RESULT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN OUT.
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN CHANCES DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTN PRESUMABLY AS A RESULT OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE. BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BETTER HEATING ORLANDO NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL HOLD ONTO TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARD. ADVERTISING 40 POPS MOST AREAS
EXCEPT 50 POP SOUTH INTERIOR (OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE) WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER (ABOUT -9C) AND A LITTLE
STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE DEEPER CONVECTION
BACK TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN ESP WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN RECENT DAYS.
SUN...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR ON ITS BACKSIDE. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW QUICKLY DRIER AIR CAN FILTER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA
AS THIS WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
NOT A BIG PUSH FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND THIS MAY SLOW UP
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH 30 PERCENT POPS EXCEPT 40 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
DEEPEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE FORM OF NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL AT NEAR -8C. THE
STEERING FLOW FOR CONVECTION REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION AND WITH A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MON-FRI...THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INFILTRATES SOUTHWARD AND THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES BECOMING MORE STABLE. RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WITH
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH UPPER RIDING
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD FROM THE
GOMEX. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THIS TIME WITH GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OR NEAR THE COAST WITH LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY. POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
BUMPED UPWARD ON MON IF THE DRIER AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE DOWN
THE PENINSULA. HIGHER POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WOULD THEN
LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
WHILE DRYING WILL BE NOTICEABLE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...
COOLING WILL INITIALLY NOT BE NOTICEABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
INLAND. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ALONG THE COAST...IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT FAR INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S WED-FRI MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
BROKEN STRATUS DECK BELOW FL010 BURNT OFF MID MORNING. VFR THRU 18Z.
TEMPO MVFR VCTS 18Z-24Z. VFR AFTER 00Z.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
COULD SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH (LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO)
THROUGH 12Z WHILE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR IFR AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN A COUPLE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS/UPDATE...BUOYS RECORDED 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD
SEAS OUT TO 009 AND 4 FOOT SEAS AT 010. THE TWO NOAA BUOYS WERE
RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 8 KNOTS.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES NEARS NORTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE COMPONENT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AMENDED TIMING OF SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY...VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT/CLOUD LINES WILL PRESENT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BOATING WITH NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.
SUN...A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING MAINLY ONSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON SURROUNDING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST MOISTURE
VALUES ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BASICALLY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. SEAS AOB 3
FEET.
MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEK FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE LATEST WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-TOPPED COASTAL
SHOWERS IN THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME WITH SPEEDS AWAY FROM THE
COAST INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AND A MAINLY NNE/NE WIND DIRECTION.
SEAS BUILDING AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 3-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD IN
AN INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...SHARP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
629 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FRIGID CANADIAN
AIRMASS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SOME CLOUD COVER BEING INDICATED IN THE
MODELS WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECASTS DURING
THIS COLD SNAP HOWEVER. SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE NEW 00Z EURO CAME IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WARM
AIR ADVECTION RAINS ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONTAL RAINS THURS
NIGHT. BOTH 00Z RUNS STILL INDICATE A THERMAL RIDGE ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BATTLE TUESDAY TO TRY TO BE OUR WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK /MID- UPPER 60S/...HOWEVER STILL BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE
DEPARTED OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST
WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING
IN OUR NW COUNTIES. GBG ALREADY HIT 31 BY 0730Z...SO THINGS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW THIS MORNING.
07Z SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT CLOUD
LAYER DISSIPATING DUE TO MIXING TODAY...AND HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP BRINGS THAT CLOUD LAYER AS FAR
SOUTH AS PIA/BMI...WHILE THE HRRR DOES NOT. ANOTHER AREA OF AC/CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM THE KANSAS AREA ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL TODAY...AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT
HIGHS MAY BE TRIMMED EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES IF WE ONLY SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO TREND THAT WAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
NOT CLEARING OUT AT ALL...OR VERY LATE. WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH
OF I-72 WILL HAVE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THEIR LOW TEMPS THE COLDEST. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER HAS LED TO NOT ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SAT
NIGHT.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHORT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH AROUND 60 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAYS WARM-UP WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...PROJECTED TO REACH OUR
COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE GFS/EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL IL ON TUES NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-55. WE DIMINISHED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF THE IL RIVER TO INDICATE THAT
TREND.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BACK DOWN IN THE
VICINITY OF MONDAYS HIGHS OF AROUND 60/LOW 60S. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST-SW LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT. SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL ALREADY DEVELOP WED NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS WED NIGHT ABOVE FROST CONDITIONS...NEAR
40. THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A MID
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
THAT AFFECTS CENTRAL IL. AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THAT COLD FRONT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST
SOUTH OF CLAY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING EAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 20000 FEET MOST
AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM SPI TO DEC AND CMI. IN ADDITION...WE
ARE WATCHING A BAND OF VFR CIGS ACRS EXTREME NRN IL DRIFTING SE
THAT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING WITH
BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING UP TO 20 KTS. ANY GUSTS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036-
037-040-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
853 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITHIN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (AHEAD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH WAS CENTERED NEAR CHEYENNE, WY AS OF 1330 UTC).
WSR-88D TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR (AS OF 1330 UTC) AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED IN DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY. WILL
CARRY LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 23 TO THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE BELOW 900 FEET AGL PER
RAP13 SHORT TERM MODEL FORECAST. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY, AND ANY SNOWFLAKES SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS WHERE LOCAL DROP OF FREEZING LEVEL
WILL OCCUR DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES FROM GREATER ASCENT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER THE 20 OR 21Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SCOOTS EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES
THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE
FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT
AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES
AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY
EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY DIPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED AROUND THE
HAYS TERMINAL THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND REMAIN AS VIRGA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 41 28 57 34 / 40 20 10 0
GCK 38 27 57 33 / 50 20 10 0
EHA 41 30 55 36 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 42 30 55 35 / 10 10 10 0
HYS 43 28 57 34 / 30 20 0 0
P28 46 29 59 35 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THERE WAS CONCERN THAT CIGS OVER SE KS MAY DROP INTO MVFR STATUS FROM
LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MORE AS LOWEST ~8,000FT ARE
QUITE DRY. AS SUCH HAVE NOW PLACED KCNU IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE
06/12Z TAF CYCLE. SOME -RA SCOOTING E OVER THE NE OK/SE KS BORDER WILL
REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL. SOME -RA THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NC OK WILL
LIKEWISE MOVE DUE ALONG & JUST S OF THE KS BORDER & AS SUCH HAVE KEPT
"VCSH" OUT OF KICT FOR THIS MORNING. ALL -RA SHOULD VACATE THE KS AREA
BY 07/00Z AS A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF SCOOTS SE FROM
THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND CONTINUE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM...WITH 0600 UTC NAM AND RUC THE ONLY MODELS COMING CLOSE
TO CAPTURING THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA. UNCLEAR WHEN/IF THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER
ENTIRE AREAS. CONSENSUS WAS TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WARNING GIVEN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT OR BELOW 30 EXCEPT FOR THE
WICHITA METRO.
SUN-MON:
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AND INCREASES ON MON. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT.
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASUREABLE RAIN...BUT A
ROGUE SPRINKLE IN HARPER COUNTY IS POSSIBLE.
TUE-FRI:
FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE..WHICH IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC...IS THE
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FURTHER SOUTH...LEADING TO SMALLER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
MAY FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON THU AHEAD OF FRONT.
-HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 20 0 10 10
NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELL 48 27 56 36 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 48 27 56 35 / 20 0 10 10
SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 10 0 0
CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 10 0 0
IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA AND WYOMING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THE RADAR MOSAIC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BAND OF
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED
AT GARDEN CITY OUT OF THESE RADAR RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES
THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE
FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT
AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES
AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY
EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY DIPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED AROUND THE
HAYS TERMINAL THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND REMAIN AS VIRGA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 28 57 34 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 43 27 57 33 / 20 10 10 0
EHA 44 30 55 36 / 20 10 10 0
LBL 44 30 55 35 / 20 10 10 0
HYS 46 28 57 34 / 20 0 0 0
P28 49 29 59 35 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
901 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING US
RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL
BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS.
STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING
THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL
EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY.
4 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM
AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR
STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING.
TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND
VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE
THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN
EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL
COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US
THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE
PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING
EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C
TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH
850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850
TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER
16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE
TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
711 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING US
RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL
BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
4 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM
AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR
STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING.
TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND
VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE
THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN
EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL
COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US
THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE
PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING
EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C
TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH
850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850
TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ALSP POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER
16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE
TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS
INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 12Z KLZK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION UP TO AROUND 790 MB
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. MODELS
DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL BUT THE 00Z HI-RES
WRF-ADVANCED RESEARCH MODEL /WRF-ARW/ AND THE LATEST RUC ARE STILL
A BIT TOO SLOW BUT PICKING UP THE BEST ON THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
IN ADDITION...RUC 300-310K SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS UP ACCORDINGLY AND MENTION
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF
I-40. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS CLOUD
COVER AND RETURNING PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING EARLIER FORECASTED HIGHS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
AND COOL AIR IS POURING SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 43 DEGREES AT WALNUT RIDGE AR TO 63 DEGREES IN
MONROE COUNTY MS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND THE CLEARING LINE WILL
MOVE SOUTH TO PERHAPS I-40. THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY
LATER TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
40 TO 45 DEGREES TONIGHT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PULL OUT OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE TEMPORARY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION SPREADING MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL
AGAIN WITH READINGS AROUND 60. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKER AND THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIP WITH IT...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMPLICATE
THE LOW TEMP FORECAST HOWEVER AS MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING ACROSS NW
SECTIONS WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEFT SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND EXTREME NW TN.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER THE EARLY OCTOBER SUN WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH
SOME FROST POTENTIAL NEAR THE TN RIVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION BEGINS
PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
CIGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...WITH
CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT MEM...MKL...AND TUP EXPECTED TO LIFT
TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. JBR IS ALREADY VFR AND LIKELY REMAIN
THERE UNTIL LATER WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. A FEW
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MEM AND MKL...SO HAVE
PLACED A TEMPO GROUP TO INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AFTER 07/04Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 16-18KTS DURING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 56 45 61 44 / 50 50 10 20
MKL 55 42 59 39 / 40 60 10 10
JBR 53 40 59 38 / 50 60 10 10
TUP 60 45 62 43 / 50 40 20 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 943 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THE LAST FEW FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOTS FROM THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SHOW THE STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING UP SOME AS IT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT THE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS WELL WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ILLINOIS.
HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO INCREASE THE SKY COVER AND
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...PLUS TO REMOVE THE
FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. WIDESPREAD LOWS FROM
27-32 DID OCCUR IN THAT AREA...WHICH DID NOT START CLOUDING UP
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KPIA/KBMI...
ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THINK THE MAIN CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE ABOVE
10000 FEET...FROM THE CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS. MOST OF THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FRIGID CANADIAN
AIRMASS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SOME CLOUD COVER BEING INDICATED IN THE
MODELS WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECASTS DURING
THIS COLD SNAP HOWEVER. SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE NEW 00Z EURO CAME IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WARM
AIR ADVECTION RAINS ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONTAL RAINS THURS
NIGHT. BOTH 00Z RUNS STILL INDICATE A THERMAL RIDGE ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BATTLE TUESDAY TO TRY TO BE OUR WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK /MID- UPPER 60S/...HOWEVER STILL BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE
DEPARTED OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST
WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING
IN OUR NW COUNTIES. GBG ALREADY HIT 31 BY 0730Z...SO THINGS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW THIS MORNING.
07Z SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT CLOUD
LAYER DISSIPATING DUE TO MIXING TODAY...AND HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP BRINGS THAT CLOUD LAYER AS FAR
SOUTH AS PIA/BMI...WHILE THE HRRR DOES NOT. ANOTHER AREA OF AC/CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM THE KANSAS AREA ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL TODAY...AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT
HIGHS MAY BE TRIMMED EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES IF WE ONLY SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO TREND THAT WAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
NOT CLEARING OUT AT ALL...OR VERY LATE. WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH
OF I-72 WILL HAVE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THEIR LOW TEMPS THE COLDEST. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER HAS LED TO NOT ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SAT
NIGHT.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHORT WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH AROUND 60 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAYS WARM-UP WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...PROJECTED TO REACH OUR
COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE GFS/EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL IL ON TUES NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-55. WE DIMINISHED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF THE IL RIVER TO INDICATE THAT
TREND.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BACK DOWN IN THE
VICINITY OF MONDAYS HIGHS OF AROUND 60/LOW 60S. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST-SW LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT. SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL ALREADY DEVELOP WED NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS WED NIGHT ABOVE FROST CONDITIONS...NEAR
40. THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A MID
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
THAT AFFECTS CENTRAL IL. AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THAT COLD FRONT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST
SOUTH OF CLAY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 50S.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH
250MB CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED AIR
(700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 0 OR 1 DEGC AT KRIW, KDNR, KDDC, KAMA,
KOUN). PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ALL
ALONG THE STRONGEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (THE STRONGEST
OF WHICH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 17Z). LIGHTER BANDED PRECIPITATION WAS
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 0.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MEASURED SO FAR AT DODGE CITY (ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN). SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS DIGHTON...AND VERY BRIEFLY MIXED IN
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORD COUNTY DURING ONE OF
THE HEAVIER BANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THE SNOW LINE IS
MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE RAP ANALYZED 900 FT AGL FREEZING
LEVEL...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON (AND
POINTS NORTHWEST) AT 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THIS EVENING:
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 700MB) WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL DRYING FROM 800 TO 500MB (AND ABOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERE) WILL INCREASE AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE WAKE
OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT CLOUD IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE (800-900MB) WILL ALSO BE DECREASING...HOWEVER RATE
OF DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IS STILL A
FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS LOW STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE AS REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECIRCULATES AROUND THE
ANTICYCLONE IN THIS LAYER. FEEL THAT CLOUDS IN THE 800-900MB LAYER
WILL SCATTER OUT SLOWLY FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT...AND MOST PROMINENT
FARTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT:
A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH TAKING A TRACK FROM ROUGHLY WRAY, COLORADO TO DODGE
CITY TONIGHT. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH SKY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
RATHER QUICKLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
FALL TO 28 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY 08 OR 09Z
AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR PROBABLY 4 OR 5 HOURS...WITH MINIMUM
AROUND SUNRISE OF 25 TO 27 DEGREES NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO NESS CITY
TO LACROSSE LINE. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A CONTINUATION OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FREEZE
HEADLINES. WILL CONTINUE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING (28 DEGREES OR
BELOW FOR LOWS) NORTH OF A JOHNSON TO BUCKLIN TO STAFFORD LINE.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR LOWS 29 TO 32 DEGREES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF WEST
CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THE END TO THE
GROWING SEASON WITH THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SUNDAY:
A SECONDARY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WHICH MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD BACK TO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NO OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO
10 KNOTS EXPECTED. A WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM DOWNSLOPE
MOMENTUM (850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO +5 TO +9C FROM EAST TO WEST)
WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
MONDAY:
BROAD 500-250 HPA WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THIS ORTHOGONAL FLOW
WRT THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A LEE TROUGH TO FORM MONDAY FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 850 HPA. AS A RESULT, A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S DEG F TO AROUND
70 DEG F. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE REGION WILL BE FREE OF ANY SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT.
TUESDAY:
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES TUESDAY AS A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UL FEATURE WILL USHER IN A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HAVE USED 12Z ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS CONTINUES
TO PERFORM POORLY (IN THIS CASE, USUALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FROPA).
HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEG F ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO MID 70S DEG F ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH A LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
WILL KEEP POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT. SFC WINDS DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH THIS HIGH AS 850 HPA WINDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DENSITY GRADIENT. HIGHS IN THE 60S DEG F ARE EXPECTED
AS FAIRLY COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES (9-13 DEG C) ARE FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL ALSO RUN WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS (AROUND 3 PERCENT) FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
FOR EXAMPLE, YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUN HAD THE WARM SECTOR (HIGHER THETA-E
AIR) SPREADING NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. TODAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS THAT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER AS A WAA PATTERN/THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG SAID FRONT
COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ALLBLEND POPS ALTHOUGH WILL SMOOTH POPS
TOWARDS A BIAS TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS WAS GENERALLY DISREGARDED AS THE
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH UL FEATURES THAT WILL PROBABLY
SLOW DOWN WITH TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UL LOW THAT WILL BE THE IMPETUS
FOR CONVECTION. IT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARM SECTOR
PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED REDISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY PER UNIT MASS (I.E.
CAPE) IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF WHEREVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE,
THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. KINEMATIC PROFILES ALSO STRENGTHEN WITH
TIME AS THE UL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO KANSAS WITH 250 HPA FLOW INCREASING
TO 100 KT, 500 HPA FLOW INCREASING TO 60 KT, AND FAIRLY STRONG AND VEERING
FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 700 HPA. SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN OCTOBER
ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE PLAINS. IN FACT, THERE WERE TORNADOES LAST OCTOBER
ACROSS THE REGION LAST YEAR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE STORM MODE
AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 1000 TO 2500 FEET (REMAINING IN
THE MVFR RANGE). AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY COMES TO AN END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CEILING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
UP TO 12 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 57 34 69 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 28 57 32 69 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 30 54 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 30 54 34 67 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 26 58 34 70 / 20 0 0 0
P28 29 56 35 69 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH
250MB CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED AIR
(700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 0 OR 1 DEGC AT KRIW, KDNR, KDDC, KAMA,
KOUN). PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ALL
ALONG THE STRONGEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (THE STRONGEST
OF WHICH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 17Z). LIGHTER BANDED PRECIPITATION WAS
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 0.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MEASURED SO FAR AT DODGE CITY (ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN). SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS DIGHTON...AND VERY BRIEFLY MIXED IN
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORD COUNTY DURING ONE OF
THE HEAVIER BANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THE SNOW LINE IS
MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE RAP ANALYZED 900 FT AGL FREEZING
LEVEL...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON (AND
POINTS NORTHWEST) AT 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THIS EVENING:
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 700MB) WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL DRYING FROM 800 TO 500MB (AND ABOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERE) WILL INCREASE AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE WAKE
OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT CLOUD IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE (800-900MB) WILL ALSO BE DECREASING...HOWEVER RATE
OF DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IS STILL A
FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS LOW STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE AS REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECIRCULATES AROUND THE
ANTICYCLONE IN THIS LAYER. FEEL THAT CLOUDS IN THE 800-900MB LAYER
WILL SCATTER OUT SLOWLY FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT...AND MOST PROMINENT
FARTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT:
A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH TAKING A TRACK FROM ROUGHLY WRAY, COLORADO TO DODGE
CITY TONIGHT. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH SKY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
RATHER QUICKLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
FALL TO 28 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY 08 OR 09Z
AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR PROBABLY 4 OR 5 HOURS...WITH MINIMUM
AROUND SUNRISE OF 25 TO 27 DEGREES NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO NESS CITY
TO LACROSSE LINE. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A CONTINUATION OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FREEZE
HEADLINES. WILL CONTINUE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING (28 DEGREES OR
BELOW FOR LOWS) NORTH OF A JOHNSON TO BUCKLIN TO STAFFORD LINE.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR LOWS 29 TO 32 DEGREES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF WEST
CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THE END TO THE
GROWING SEASON WITH THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SUNDAY:
A SECONDARY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WHICH MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD BACK TO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NO OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO
10 KNOTS EXPECTED. A WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM DOWNSLOPE
MOMENTUM (850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO +5 TO +9C FROM EAST TO WEST)
WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT
AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES
AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY
EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 1000 TO 2500 FEET (REMAINING IN
THE MVFR RANGE). AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY COMES TO AN END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CEILING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
UP TO 12 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 57 34 69 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 28 57 32 69 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 30 54 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 30 54 34 67 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 26 58 34 70 / 20 0 0 0
P28 29 56 35 69 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION AND SYNOPSIS SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH
250MB CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED AIR
(700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 0 OR 1 DEGC AT KRIW, KDNR, KDDC, KAMA,
KOUN). PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ALL
ALONG THE STRONGEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (THE STRONGEST
OF WHICH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 17Z). LIGHTER BANDED PRECIPITATION WAS
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 0.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MEASURED SO FAR AT DODGE CITY (ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN). SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS DIGHTON...AND VERY BRIEFLY MIXED IN
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORD COUNTY DURING ONE OF
THE HEAVIER BANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THE SNOW LINE IS
MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE RAP ANALYZED 900 FT AGL FREEZING
LEVEL...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON (AND
POINTS NORTHWEST) AT 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WAVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE INCREASING RADAR RETURNS. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH IS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND HAYS WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES
THROUGH SUNRISE SO WILL CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WILL KEEP THE
FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PRESENT
AT 250 MB. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRY AS THIS FRONT PASSES
AND NO PRECIPITATION OR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY
EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS OF NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AVERAGING 1000 TO 2500 FEET (REMAINING IN
THE MVFR RANGE). AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY COMES TO AN END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CEILING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
UP TO 12 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 41 28 57 34 / 40 20 10 0
GCK 38 27 57 33 / 50 20 10 0
EHA 41 30 55 36 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 42 30 55 35 / 10 10 10 0
HYS 43 27 57 34 / 30 20 0 0
P28 46 29 59 35 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ080-081-
084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
COMBINED WITH 700 MB CONVERGENCE...HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT RSL/HUT/ICT BUT MAINLY WITH VFR VSBYS/CIGS AS
IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LESSER CHANCES FURTHER
NORTHEAST IN DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR. STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE KANSAS REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THERE WAS CONCERN THAT CIGS OVER SE KS MAY DROP INTO MVFR STATUS FROM
LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MORE AS LOWEST ~8,000FT ARE
QUITE DRY. AS SUCH HAVE NOW PLACED KCNU IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE
06/12Z TAF CYCLE. SOME -RA SCOOTING E OVER THE NE OK/SE KS BORDER WILL
REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL. SOME -RA THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NC OK WILL
LIKEWISE MOVE DUE ALONG & JUST S OF THE KS BORDER & AS SUCH HAVE KEPT
"VCSH" OUT OF KICT FOR THIS MORNING. ALL -RA SHOULD VACATE THE KS AREA
BY 07/00Z AS A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF SCOOTS SE FROM
THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND CONTINUE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM...WITH 0600 UTC NAM AND RUC THE ONLY MODELS COMING CLOSE
TO CAPTURING THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA. UNCLEAR WHEN/IF THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY.
TONIGHT:
WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER
ENTIRE AREAS. CONSENSUS WAS TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WARNING GIVEN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT OR BELOW 30 EXCEPT FOR THE
WICHITA METRO.
SUN-MON:
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN AND INCREASES ON MON. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT.
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASUREABLE RAIN...BUT A
ROGUE SPRINKLE IN HARPER COUNTY IS POSSIBLE.
TUE-FRI:
FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE..WHICH IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC...IS THE
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FURTHER SOUTH...LEADING TO SMALLER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
MAY FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON THU AHEAD OF FRONT.
-HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 31 56 36 / 30 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 49 29 56 36 / 30 10 10 10
NEWTON 49 28 56 36 / 20 10 0 0
ELDORADO 51 28 56 35 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 30 56 36 / 40 20 10 10
RUSSELL 46 27 56 36 / 30 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 46 27 56 35 / 30 10 10 10
SALINA 50 28 58 37 / 20 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 50 28 56 36 / 20 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 53 30 58 35 / 30 20 0 0
CHANUTE 52 28 57 34 / 20 20 0 0
IOLA 51 29 57 35 / 20 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 28 58 35 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
104 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
HRRR SUGGESTED 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN CHASE COUNTY FROM DEFORMATION
AND CSI SNOW BANDING. KIML OBSERVERS REPORTED 4 INCHES AT 1 PM
CST. OVERALL THE AREA OF SNOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT
DRITS EAST SOUTHEAST. A NEW FCST IS OUT FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND
SLOWER RAP13 SOLNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 INCHES OR SO IN
CHASE COUNTY FOR TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES COVERING GRASS AND
PASTURE...NOT ROADS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
AVIATION...
FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR KLBF...OVERCAST SKIES WITH -SN ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIFR VSBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM TO
1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 600 FEET POSSIBLE WITHIN INTERMITTENT BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR AROUND 21Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR 2500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT AFTER
00Z TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. FOR KVTN...SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
A HARD FREEZE IS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WRN KS/ERN COLO BY 12Z SUNDAY
SETTING UP A WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO SWRN NEB. A BLEND OF THE
WRF...ECM...NAM GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA PRODUCES LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THIS AREA.
ALSO...THE NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING
THE FOG SIGNAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. SO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS MOST LIKELY WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS FALLEN
AND LESS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
NEW 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURE FCST FOR HIGHS 35 TO 40 BENEATH THE
SNOW SHIELD. THIS IS BASED ON THE MEDIUM OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE FCSTS WHICH GIVE NORTH PLATTE A HIGH NEAR 40.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING 30 PLUS DEGREE DEW
PTS...FROM TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
CWA...FROM KIEN TO KEAR. ALSO THIS LINE IS CLOSE TO THE CLOUD LINE
SEEN ON IR SAT. AS A RESULT TEMPS IN THE EAST OF THE CWA HAVE
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S...WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WY WITH SNOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DROPPING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY NOON. 850 TEMPS
BELOW ZERO AND 85 TO 95 PERCENT SATURATION ACROSS A DEEP...AROUND
1500 M...FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. GROUND IS STILL RELATIVELY
WARM AND SURF TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS ALL SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SE
NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SW NEB. ROADWAYS SHOULD JUST BE WET AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT...HOWEVER SOME BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES MAY
SEE A DUSTING. GRASSY AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW ENDING FROM NW TO SE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD
HIGHS DOWN CLOSE TO 40 IN THE SW. WARMER MID 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VERY COLD TEMPS AS SKIES CLEAR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CURRENT DEW PTS IN THAT RANGE IN
THE CLEAR SKIES...AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL BE THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
ONE YET.
WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEST TO SW
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ALSO GOING TO BE DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
FOR SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 FOR MONDAY.
MID WEEK WILL SEE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIG INTO THE FAR SW
CONUS...WHICH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. LONG WAY
TROUGH TO TAKE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DRY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED. THEN EYES TURN TO THE
LOW AS MODELS PUSH THE LOW TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING FRIDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY. GULF IS OPEN WITH DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM. DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
EXCITED YET DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT...BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROMISING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC/TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING US LIGHT RAIN
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER
WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY THRU THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RMNG BHND. CLDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVR
EXTRM NW SXNS THO HARD TO BELIEVE MANY PLACES WL CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTN WITH WLY FLOW OFF OF THE LK. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO MV MUCH
MORE THIS AFTN...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ACRS CNTRL NY TOPPING
OUT ARND 50. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE U50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO...
9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS.
STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING
THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL
EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG.
7 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY.
4 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM
AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR
STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING.
TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND
VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE
THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN
EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL
COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US
THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE
PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING
EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C
TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH
850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH INDICATIONS OF
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS THEN LIKELY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A MAINTAINED PRESENCE OF
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
IMPROVED WX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF AND
SFC FRONT MAY SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE CENTER OF CONTINENTAL POLAR...FALL-
LIKE...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOLLOWED THE HPC DAY 3-7 GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH ONLY MINOR LOCAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF IFR AND AIRPORT
RESTRICTIONS HAS MOVED EAST TODAY WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. STRATOCU CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE PARTIALLY
DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. FORECAST BEYOND 00Z IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN BEHAVIOR OF STRATOCU DISSIPATION AND ANY
SUBSEQUENT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BREAKS OF CLEAR SKY. WE THINK
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO WINDY AND THUS MIXY FOR DENSE
FOG...AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LAYERS OF STRATUS/STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN BUT COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. AM LEANING WITH THE COLDER AIR POURING ACROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE THE CLOUDS...RATHER THAN HAVING THE
RADIATIONAL FOG SET IN AFTER ABOUT 04Z-06Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN
TOWARD THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS VALID FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS
OF MVFR PROBABLE AFTER 18Z SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...BECOMING VFR MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AND RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPLY KELM.
MON TO TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR/MVFR. SOME SHOWERS.
THU...VFR. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1221 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING US LIGHT RAIN
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER
WEATHER WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WE SEE DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY THRU THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RMNG BHND. CLDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVR
EXTRM NW SXNS THO HARD TO BELIEVE MANY PLACES WL CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTN WITH WLY FLOW OFF OF THE LK. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO MV MUCH
MORE THIS AFTN...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ACRS CNTRL NY TOPPING
OUT ARND 50. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE U50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BLO...
9 AM UPDATE...HV UPDATED GRIDS TO SPEED UP RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS.
STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MADE IT TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND WL BE EXITING
THE AREA BY 15Z. MADE TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS AS WELL. STILL
EXPECTING CLRNG BY EARLY EVNG.
7 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ON TARGET. STILL THINKING THAT AFTER A 2
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...WE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD
MIDDAY.
4 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF KSYR DOWN TO WEST OF KELM
AT THE MOMENT WITH AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR
STEADY RAIN COMING ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. JUST AS SLOWLY AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA AFTER 18Z
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING.
TONIGHT...AS 850 TEMPS DROP TOWARD -2C/-3C LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WITH AN INITIAL WIND
VECTOR OF AROUND 270...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TOWARD DAYBREAK THE FLOW MAY VEER JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY STATE
THRUWAY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SUNDAY....LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNY. OUR FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA...AND THEN
EVERYONE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL
COME FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT NEPA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CATSKILLS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A 120KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS CNY. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET EXISTS. FOR US
THIS MEANS OUR IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BE THIS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP THE
PRECIPITATION TO ENHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING
EVERYONE ROUGHLY FROM I-90 SOUTH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES EAST. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -2C
TO -4C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WITH A 280 FLOW...LAKE SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH
850 WINDS BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END ALL ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION WITH 850
TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -4C TO -6C BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
130 PM UPDATE...MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SFC HIPRES OVR CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AT H5 WL KEEP MAJOR WX SYSTEMS FM MVG IN EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WL CHANGE ON WED AS SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS CNTRL
GREAT LKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 TROF APPCHG THE AREA AND
SPREADING PCPN INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WED. AS THIS LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST WED NGT EXPECT LK EFFECT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THUR MRNG. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL
SKIRT ACRS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR RA/SN MIX BHND THIS LOW
ON FRI MRNG.
H8 TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO -3C AFTER 06Z THUR AND 12Z FRI. THIS WL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH MRNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KSYR/KELM SO FAR...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM. AFTER
16Z...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. BKN CIGS SCT OUT BY LATE
TODAY. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY KAVP.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT MVFR -SHRA.
SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR ACROSS NY TERMINALS. SCT MVFR
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACRS NEPA.
TUE...VFR.
WED...POTENTIAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS
INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 12Z KLZK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION UP TO AROUND 790 MB
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. MODELS
DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL BUT THE 00Z HI-RES
WRF-ADVANCED RESEARCH MODEL /WRF-ARW/ AND THE LATEST RUC ARE STILL
A BIT TOO SLOW BUT PICKING UP THE BEST ON THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
IN ADDITION...RUC 300-310K SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS UP ACCORDINGLY AND MENTION
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF
I-40. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS CLOUD
COVER AND RETURNING PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING EARLIER FORECASTED HIGHS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
AND COOL AIR IS POURING SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 43 DEGREES AT WALNUT RIDGE AR TO 63 DEGREES IN
MONROE COUNTY MS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND THE CLEARING LINE WILL
MOVE SOUTH TO PERHAPS I-40. THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY
LATER TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
40 TO 45 DEGREES TONIGHT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PULL OUT OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE TEMPORARY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION SPREADING MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL
AGAIN WITH READINGS AROUND 60. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKER AND THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIP WITH IT...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMPLICATE
THE LOW TEMP FORECAST HOWEVER AS MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING ACROSS NW
SECTIONS WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEFT SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND EXTREME NW TN.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER THE EARLY OCTOBER SUN WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH
SOME FROST POTENTIAL NEAR THE TN RIVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION BEGINS
PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.
SJM
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH HAS BEEN BETWEEN RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS NOW DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. JBR AND MEM SHOULD SEE RAIN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE AT MEM. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW
3SM FOR BRIEF PERIODS...BUT PREVAILING VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 5SM OR GREATER. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AR MKL AROUND 20Z...AND
AT TUP AROUND 22Z. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH 5-6K FT CIGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 56 45 61 44 / 50 50 10 20
MKL 55 42 59 39 / 40 60 10 10
JBR 53 40 59 38 / 50 60 10 10
TUP 60 45 62 43 / 50 40 20 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND FINALLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S....WHILE DEEP TROUGHING WAS PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITHIN THE TROUGHING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WEST TOWARDS
NEBRASKA. UNDERNEATH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS AN AREA OF BROKEN
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR DULUTH. MUCH OF THIS
STRATUS WAS SITUATED AT 750MB OR BELOW PER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
INL...MPX AND GRB. THE REASON THE DECK IS NOT A SOLID OVERCAST IS
THAT THE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW COMPLETE SATURATION. IN FACT...SOME
OF THE STRATUS FORMATION HAS BEEN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...NOTED
BY HOLES THAT FILLED IN DURING THE MORNING. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST ON WATER VAPOR...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC RIDGE. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 12Z THE PAS
MANITOBA SOUNDING HAS RESULTED IN THE SHORTWAVE JUST PRODUCING A
BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. 850MB TEMPS CHILLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN -5 AND -7C PER 12Z RAOBS...OR 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS
PROGGED TO KEEP DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH...
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL DO A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER MINNESOTA
WILL GET PUSHED DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS AND THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVE IN...SKIES WILL
CLEAR. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AS WELL...EXCLUDING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THE COOL DAY TODAY...THE
SETUP CERTAINLY FAVORS LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AS HAS BEEN
FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
WISCONSIN COULD EVEN HIT THE UPPER TEENS. FREEZE WARNINGS
THEREFORE STILL LOOK GOOD WITH THIS LIKELY BEING THE END OF THE
GROWING SEASON. THE SECOND THING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DO IS
TO SPREAD THE CIRRUS AND SOME MID CLOUDS SEEN UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...
DOWNSLOPING OF AIR OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF WARMER 925-850MB AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 18Z... 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 2-4C AND -3
TO -5C RESPECTIVELY. COMBINE THESE WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH AND HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WILL
HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PLUMMET INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE...RAISING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE ARE NOTED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
WELL UP TO THE NORTHWEST...NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF DROPPING
THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE DEEP TROUGH...REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIES IT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS EVEN MORE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND
ALSO ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT OFF THE ROCKIES. AS SUCH...925 AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 6C AND 4C RESPECTIVELY AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS WARM
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESULT AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HEADING INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL HELP PRODUCE A
MUCH WARMER NIGHT...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 30S.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TRACK...DEPTH AND
SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...THOUGH...
THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO HEAD
EAST...LIKELY ALONG THE ONTARIO/MN BORDER. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW STAYS TO OUR WEST...ONLY REACHING ALBERTA LEA BY 00Z.
925MB AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TOPPING
OUT AT 12-14C AND 6-8C RESPECTIVELY. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO NEAR 850MB. ONLY CAVEAT IS
THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH LOOK TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ARE
REASONABLE...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO 70 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST AGAIN WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
RIDGE...DIGGING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ON TOP OF THE
POST-FRONTAL MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL ALREADY EXIST. SO
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
GRADUALLY OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD UNTIL THIS SHORTWAVE CAN CATCH
UP...ANTICIPATE A BAND OF RAIN TO DEVELOP. THIS SIGNAL OF THE BAND
OF RAIN CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER...WITH THE 06.12Z GFS...NAM...
UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL DEPICTING IT. AS SUCH...HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO AROUND 40. FURTHER INCREASES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ONLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH...SO MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
THE FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SLOW COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LOWS IN THE 40S SUGGESTED BY MAV/MET GUIDANCE SEEM
REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS DO GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 0C BY 00Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHWEST
WHICH ENDS UP MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 06.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ABOUT A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...WITH THE CURRENT DEEP TROUGH LIFTING OUT ON FRIDAY.
WE STILL HAVE ONE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH DROPPING THE
TROUGH PRIOR TO LIFT-OUT...PROGGED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THURSDAY. AFTER FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S..
EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS EJECTION OCCURS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE...WITH THE LATEST 06.12Z GFS THE FASTEST AMONGST ALL MODELS
AND PAST 1-2 DAYS OF RUNS OF THE MODEL. THE GFS HAS THIS DEEP LOW
LIFTING UP INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z SUNDAY. EJECTING UPPER
LOWS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ARE ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS...SINCE THEY HINGE ON UPPER TROUGHS CROSSING THE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...
THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A SLOWER IDEA ENDS UP PANNING
OUT PER MODEL BIASES.
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR COMES
WITH THIS RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -4C. THUS...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
TODAY OR TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE THURSDAY
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WE GET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO LIMITED SPACING
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS FRONT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
SURGE OF 4-6C 850MB AIR IS PROGGED TO COME INTO THE AREA ON STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SO WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-90. ANOTHER COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND -4C AT 12Z. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS APPROACH AND SPREADING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE ALL DUE TO
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COMING INTO THE
COLDER AIRMASS SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MORE REFINEMENT OF
THESE CHANCES WILL COME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TIMING OF
THE UPPER LOW EJECTION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TOO WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS BY SATURDAY STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY 5 OR SO
DEGREES...NOT LIKE THE 15-20 AS OF LATE.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAFS SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES IN THE 3 TO 4 KFT RANGE.
PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 13 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KTS POSSIBLE AT KRST. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MVFR CLOUD DECK BECOMING SCATTERED
AND RISING TO AROUND 5 KFT AND DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLIGHTS EAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. PLAN ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE
9 TO 14 KT RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SETTING THE STAGE FOR THESE CONDITIONS IS THE MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A
KILLING FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF
12-22 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO STILL BE LOW...THANKS TO MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
RECENT COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...LINGERING COLD AIR THAT ONLY SLOWLY
MODIFIES WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...
LOWEST SOUTH AND WEST OF I-94. THEREFORE...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD BE THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
FOR MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...STRONGER WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED...IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH.
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BRING UP A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY COUNTERACT IT BY JUMPING INTO THE 60S. THEREFORE...MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BETWEEN 25-35
PERCENT...LOWEST ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES STILL
SLIGHTLY COOL AND ESPECIALLY POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS...
CONDITIONS AGAIN JUST LOOK NEAR CRITICAL. THE CLOUDS COULD BE
QUITE PROBLEMATIC BY KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED.
PER COORDINATION WITH AREA FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES...HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY COULD OCCUR
SOUTH OF I-90 ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2012
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041-
053>055-061.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-088-096.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...AJ