Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/02/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

808 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2012

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING. SKIES
ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT
WAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND SOUTHERLY BY 06Z. NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT
18-24 HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS PLAINS HAVE PERSISTED A BIT
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...PROBABLY DUE TO A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY 00Z WITH FLOW
BECOMING EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
THIS TREND OF DECREASING WINDS. OTHERWISE...FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE GREAT
BASIN. WINDS TO CONTINUE A BIT GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES
OVERNIGHT. A COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...
ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SOME WARMING ALOFT ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL KEEP MINS FROM PLUMMETING. ACROSS PLAINS...SHOULD
SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST AREAS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN LOW LYING AREAS. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT BUT LOOKS TOO
LOCALIZED. ON TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER STATE. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW 700 MB TEMPS WARMING
TO AROUND +11 DEGREES C. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF PLAINS WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ALONG WITH HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE
TEENS. WINDS AND HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH DURATION LOOKS BRIEF. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON
STATUS OF FUELS GIVEN RECENT PRECIPITATION. SO NO FIRE WEATHER
HILITES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...MAJOR CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM
THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT AS THE NAM BRINGS AN INITIAL SURGE EARLIER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WHILE GFS IS LATER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
AND WILL PLAY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW WITH READINGS IN THE 60S
AND SOME LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE COLDER AIR
WILL BLAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS SUSPECT AND RATHER LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS. GIVEN
THE COLD AIR THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RAIN MIX WITH SNOW ON THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT DOUBT IF THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY WILL BE COOL AND GENERALLY DRY WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
AND AGAIN COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE
PLAINS. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE
WEEKEND PATTERN EVOLVES...AND HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OFF WEST COAST
BEHAVES. WON`T GET TOO EXCITED YET BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING
FOR OUR BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL. CERTAINLY FROM THURSDAY
AM AND THRU THE WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
SO TIME TO START FINISHING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING ANY
GARDEN FOOD REMAINS AND SHUTTING DOWN SPRINKLER SYSTEMS.

AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS FINALLY SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHEAST
COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO NORTHEAST SURFACE GRADIENT. BOTH HRRR AND
RUC INDICATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL 22Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY BY 00Z. THIS TREND
LOOKING ON TRACK. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING AS
DRAINAGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. LATEST NAM
SHOWS WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 16Z TIME WHILE GFS CONTINUES
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING
OF THE NORTHWEST WIND...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILING.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

133 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST INTO
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CUTOFF LOW ALOFT CENTERED
NEAR THE CENTRAL NY/PA BORDER...WITH A 38 UNIT 500 HPA VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALONG THE S SHORE OF LONG ISLAND LIFTING NE. AHEAD OF THIS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM - STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION - THERE
ARE ISOLD- SCT SHRA...AND BEHIND IT - NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.

THE NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SO INTRODUCE ISOLD-SCT SHRA THERE.

A BLEND OF NAM/SREF/HRRR POPS REFLECTS PRECIPITATION TREND FAIRLY
WELL...THOUGH MIGHT BE UNDER DOING AREA TO BE MAINLY DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. CMC-REG SKY PRODUCT HAS HANDLED SKY COVER THIS MORNING
WELL...SO HAVE USED IT TO UPDATE SKY GRIDS.

NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE NE UNITED STATES OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z KOKX AND KALY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER 60S NEAR THE
COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z MET/MAV/NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRYING CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD IN ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AS WELL...DRAGGING
A TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA...RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO
THE WEST...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH
FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COOLER AIR
IS USHERED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...CREATING PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
FOR MONDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...SHOULD HAVE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AND THE MOISTURE FIELD BEGINS
INCREASING.

GFS THE WARMEST WITH TEMPS WITH IT PUSHING THE LOW OUT THE
QUICKEST. SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...WHICH KEEPS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. IF SKIES CLEAR QUICKER THAN
FORECASTED...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESP
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL FORECASTED FOR MID WEEK...WITH
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURS/FRI. WHILE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ARE STILL IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THE 00Z RUNS...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE
FORECAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO RETREAT TUESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS A TAD
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS. 00Z NAM REMAINS THE MAIN OUTLIER WITH TIMING...REALLY
SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN TILL WED. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO SIDE WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT AND PROGRESSIVE PATHS...BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN BY TUES NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUES
MORNING WITH INCREASING WAA/MOISTURE FIELD...THEN INCREASED POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUES NIGHT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO
TIMED PRECIPITATION OUT TO CORRESPOND WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS MENTIONED THROUGH WED ALONG THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGING IN
PLACE ALOFT...EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH THURS
INTO FRI...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THUS...CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES.

WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL TUES THROUGH THURS...WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN
MODERATING TEMPS. SLIGHT COOLING SETTLES IN FRI...BUT THE NEXT
BURST OF COOLER AIR LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ME WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N TNGT.

MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR AT KGON WILL IMPROVE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NJ AND UPSTATE NY. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR KTEB AND
KEWR. POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHRA TO GET INTO KLGA AND KJFK.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING
SHRA...WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

SHRA DISSIPATE THIS EVE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

VRB WIND FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W. SOME GUSTS AROUND 18KT POSSIBLE.
FLOW DECREASES TNGT...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MON MRNG.
W DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME THRU THE TAF
PERIOD AFT THE SHIFT OCCURS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY-FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTN-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PERIODS OF -RA
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
AFTN.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KTS. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TOMORROW AND THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FLOW COULD
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON WED.

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SINCE THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION
EVENT AND HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...FLOODING DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1224 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THE NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SO INTRODUCE ISOLD-SCT SHRA THERE.

NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE NE UNITED STATES OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL FORECASTED FOR MID WEEK...WITH
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURS/FRI. WHILE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ARE STILL IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THE 00Z RUNS...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE
FORECAST.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES E OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N TODAY.

LIGHT N/NW FLOW WILL BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTN. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE AFT 18Z.

VFR IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SW. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
16-18Z PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO BE N OF THE CITY TERMINALS. ANY SHRA
DISSIPATE BY 23-00Z.

TONIGHT...WINDS REMAIN FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY-THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON WED.

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BC/JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1043 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CUTOFF LOW ALOFT CENTERED
NEAR THE WESTERN NY/PA BORDER...WITH A 33 UNIT 500 HPA VORTICITY
MAXIMUM JUST S OF LONG ISLAND LIFTING NE. AHEAD OF THIS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM - STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION - THERE ARE ISOLD-
SCT SHRA...AND BEHIND IT - NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION - DRY
CONDITIONS WITH AT MOST FEW-SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.

THE NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SO INTRODUCE ISOLD-SCT SHRA THERE.

SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND TO JUST BELOW 0 ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

A BLEND OF NAM/SREF/HRRR POPS REFLECTS PRECIPITATION TREND FAIRLY
WELL...THOUGH MIGHT BE UNDER DOING AREA TO BE MAINLY DRY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CMC-REG SKY PRODUCT CAPTURES CURRENT
AREA OF MAINLY SKC FROM NJ BACK INTO EASTERN PA...SO HAVE USED IT
TO UPDATE SKY GRIDS...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.

12Z KOKX AND KALY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TO THE MID-UPPER 60S NEAR THE
COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 6Z MAV/NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH 00Z MET GUIDANCE. HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPERATURE
GRIDS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES E OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N TODAY.

LIGHT N/NW FLOW WILL BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTN. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE AFT 18Z.

TONIGHT...WINDS REMAIN FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON WED.

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BC/JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1138 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL GIVE
WAY TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FALLING PREDOMINATELY FROM A MID
DECK CROSSING PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY LATE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING MUCH
PROGRESS NORTHEAST YET...AS THE 0000 UTC OKX SOUNDING SHOWED A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE DRY LAYER WILL FILL IN
AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE 0000 UTC IAD SOUNDING WAS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN ABOVE
5000 FEET...AND THE MOISTURE RIDING NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUNDINGS IN THE AIR
WERE STABLE IN THE DEVELOPING PRE WARM FRONTAL AIRMASS. IN
FACT...SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM DOWN THROUGH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE
STABLE (BUT MOIST)...SO DEEPER CONVECTIVE LIKE SHOWERS MAY NOT GET
THIS FAR NORTH UNTIL LATER TONIGHT (AT THE EARLIEST).

OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW THE NEXT LARGER BATCH OF
SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHWEST AREAS UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS RAISED LATE THIS EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING SHOWERS...THEN HELD STEADY UNTIL LATE.

TEMPERATURES PROBABLY DO NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE. AS THE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS INCREASE...THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY EDGE UP TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO EAST
TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE (WELL TO THE
WEST) WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING AND
REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. CHC POPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE TO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE BY AFTERNOON. QPF OF .10 TO .25
INCHES EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH...LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SO WE ARE INDICATING SOME UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E OR SE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO FEATURE A
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, A HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO UP TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN
WAVE. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE UP OVER QUEBEC AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO PULL A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES SHOULD NUDGE INTO OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE, THE
BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD BE A HUMID AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NO PARTICULAR FOCUS
TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EITHER ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. WE HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE
SHOULD TRANSITION FROM LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON WHEN MUCH OF
OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ACT TO PUSH THE PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. WE ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ANOTHER ONE ABOUT SUNDAY. THE FIRST MAY HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

DURING THEN PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL AND END A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BECOME VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING N INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICT VSBYS.

TUE...THE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE AREA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. LOWERING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS. A
STEADY RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN TAF SITES WITH SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THERE AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 5 TO
10 KTS FROM THE E OR SE TUE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER,
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO MOVE CLOSER DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE SW THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO MORE SRLY OR SERLY
OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS TONIGHT AND THEN 10 TO 15 KTS ON TUESDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY. SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN
TONIGHT AND THEN 3 TO 4 FT ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY 1 TO 2 FT ON DEL BAY
THRU TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

204 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED
INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SO REMOVED VCTS THERE, BUT
KEPT IT FOR KAPF AS TSTORMS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY. INCLUDED
VCSH ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE VICINITY TOWARDS DAWN MON. VCTS ALL TERMINALS FOR MON. IT
COULD BECOME WET AND MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO`S DOWN THE ROAD. BRIEF
IFR POSSIBLE MON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN
SOUTHERLY ON MON. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

UPDATE...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS, DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
WAS CONTAMINATED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS SO THE PWAT VALUE WAS
CALCULATED WAY TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IT DOES SHOW A GENERAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND BASED ON THIS IT APPEARS
THE PWAT HAS PROBABLY INCREASED BACK CLOSE TO TWO INCHES. IT
DEPICTS ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THE 30-40 PERCENT
POPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE NNW STORM MOTION WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND THIS ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ABOVE
DISCUSSION.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NW THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS AND
GULF WATERS AT THIS TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY MOVING
UPON THE E COAST. HAVE VCSH INITIALLY IN E COAST TAFS AND VERY
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. CURRENT E COAST SURFACE WINDS CALM TO
LIGHT SE WITH SEA BREEZE INCREASING SE 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFT 16Z.
TSRA TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH VCTS IN TAFS AFT
17/18Z. TSRA MAY BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT ONLY KTMB AND
KPBI. AT KAPF ...SHRA SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH VCTS IN TAFS AFT
18Z THROUGH 30/00Z. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WIND CALM BECOMING
ESE-SE < 10 KNOTS AFT 13Z THEN SSW-SW TO 10 KNOTS AFT 16Z AS W
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
AND WEST COAST AND OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND A WEAK
FRONT WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK
RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
BEGUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SOME
DRIER AIR WAS ALSO NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF WEST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND THE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND STRONG
RIDGES ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...PULLING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE UNTIL TONIGHT...AND WITH WARM AND DRY AIR
ALOFT...500MB TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C...CUT BACK POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR TODAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND ECMWF FOR THE POPS...WITH
STILL A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY...WITH OVERALL STORM MOTION SLOW TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ATTACHED TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON TUESDAY.

SO FOR MONDAY...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.1-2.4
INCHES...AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTION IS NOT TERRIBLY SLOW...AROUND 10 KNOTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THERE WILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HPC
PAINTS AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN AREAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SO LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD
SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE. SO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH...3-4 INCHES FOR 1 HOUR...AROUND 4 INCHES FOR 3
HOURS...AND 4-5.5 INCHES FOR 6 HOURS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
STORMS AND CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY HAMPERING OVERALL ACTIVITY...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL ON MONDAY.

SOME OF THE DRIER AIR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE YUCATAN MAY TRY TO PUSH INTO THE GULF
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BATTLE BACK AGAINST THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTH...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH BACK ACROSS AT
LEAST THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS OF 596-598
DECAMETERS...AND 592-593 DECAMETERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GET PUSHED TO THE NORTHWEST. PWATS WILL
FALL TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE TYPE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA OR NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...KEEPING
RELATIVELY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE...PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA MOVING NW THROUGH THE
ATLC WATERS AND GULF WATERS WITH THE ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY MOVING
UPON THE E COAST. VERY BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. VCSH IN E COAST
TAFS. E COAST SEA BREEZE INCREASES SE WINDS AFT 16Z AND TSRA TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH VCTS IN TAFS. POTENTIAL
THAT TSRA MAY BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT MAINLY KTMB AND KPBI.
AT KAPF...SHRA SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH VCTS AFT 18Z THROUGH
30/00Z. E COAST SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY CALM TO SE-SSE < 5 KNOTS
UNLESS BECOMING VARIABLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IF A SHRA
MOVES OVER THE AREA...BECOMING SE 10-12 KNOTS AFT 15Z. AT KAPF
CURRENT SURFACE WIND CALM TO SE < 5 KNOTS INCREASING AFT 12Z 5 TO
8 KNOTS THEN SHIFTING SSW-SW TO 10 KNOTS AFT 16Z AS W COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE TRANQUIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY. A STRONGER SOUTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WITH SEAS
POSSIBLY BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 87 77 / 30 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 86 77 / 30 40 70 50
MIAMI 88 78 86 77 / 30 40 70 50
NAPLES 89 77 89 77 / 20 20 60 40

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1022 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.UPDATE...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS, DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
WAS CONTAMINATED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS SO THE PWAT VALUE WAS
CALCULATED WAY TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IT DOES SHOW A GENERAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND BASED ON THIS IT APPEARS
THE PWAT HAS PROBABLY INCREASED BACK CLOSE TO TWO INCHES. IT
DEPICTS ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THE 30-40 PERCENT
POPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE NNW STORM MOTION WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND THIS ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ABOVE
DISCUSSION.

KOB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

.POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 87 77 / 30 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 86 77 / 30 40 70 50
MIAMI 88 78 86 77 / 30 40 70 50
NAPLES 89 77 89 77 / 20 20 60 40

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

242 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS MADE THIS MORNING...WITH
FORECAST GENERALLY RIGHT ON TRACK.

COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LAST EVENING WAS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AT MID-MORNING...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WERE
PROVIDING COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION...WITH A SOME
LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU MOVING INLAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHEAST IL. STRATOCU LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THANKS TO WARMING TEMPS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF STRONG VORT MOVING AWAY
OVER OHIO. THUS MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORES...WHILE AREAS WELL
INLAND WARM TO AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST UNDER GENERALLY
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING ARE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
POTENTIAL NOW THROUGH LATE MORNING TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A FAIRLY STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST OVER
THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR TODAY IS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO SPILL INTO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS WAS EXPECTED...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING
DELTA TS FINALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE...WITH THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ALTHOUGH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THIS CLOUD
COVER SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. FAVORED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF ANY CLOUD COVER OVER AREAS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...BUT
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER TO STILL POSSIBLY SPILL OVER INTO AREAS IN
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...IT SHOULDNT BE MORE
THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTLY
SUNNY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 15Z TIME FRAME. AFTER THIS
TIME FRAME...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE. AFTER THIS
POINT...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...I DID RAISE TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 70S
FOR MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE UPPER 60S IF NOT AROUND 70 MARK FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
NONETHELESS...A PLEASANT DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY.

AFTER QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF MONDAY...A SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE
HORIZON. AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH AS WAS EXPECTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARDS BRINGING CURRENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BRING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE
REFLECTION UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS A SEPARATE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH...PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES THE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT ITS
CONCEIVABLE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK BEFORE EXITING. AFTER WEAK RIDGING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND
SURFACE REFLECTION/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MAINLY SHOWERS SHOULD BE OBSERVED AS
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF IT. IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY...THEN
PRIMARILY SHOWERS WOULD BE OBSERVED. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS AND IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...THEN THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* GUSTY ENELY-NELY WINDS TO G15-20KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A BKN MVFR DECK OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS MOVED ONSHORE THIS
MORNING AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED SWD DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK PUSHING INLAND AS THE CLOUD DECK THINS WITH
DEEP LAYER MIXING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ANY
REMAINING CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON TO BE FEW TO SCT. THE DEEP LAYER
MIXING IS GENERATING GUSTS TO ARND 20KT WITH AN OCNL HIGHER GUST.
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY FORM IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT ORD/MDW/GYY. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME MIFG COULD
DRIFT OVER RFD/DPA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS IT
WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE AN OPERATIONAL IMPACT.

WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SELY TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NWD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CI THOUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW...AND COULD BRING INCREASING MID CLOUD AS WELL...BUT
LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MAX SPEED AND DURATION OF GUSTS.

* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MIFG THAT FORMS IN THE
REGION WILL NOT IMPACT THE ORD/MDW TERMINALS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR MVFR.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHC FOR MORNING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR
SATURDAY...VFR.

MTF

.MARINE...

242 PM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 10-20 KTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWS
AND IS THEN ABSORBED AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER LOUISIANA
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THIS TIME WITH 10-20 KTS LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN LAKES REGION ON
THURSDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT. IF NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND NOT REACH
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY EVENING.
SHOULD NO NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP...THE FRONT COULD SPEED UP AND
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AND COULD BECOME STRONGER WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO ONTARIO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONG WINDS
TO 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE. GALES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
JUST YET. CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

230 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS MADE THIS MORNING...WITH
FORECAST GENERALLY RIGHT ON TRACK.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* GUSTY ENELY-NELY WINDS TO G15-20KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MAX SPEED AND DURATION OF GUSTS.

* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MIFG THAT FORMS IN THE
REGION WILL NOT IMPACT THE ORD/MDW TERMINALS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR MVFR.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHC FOR MORNING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR
SATURDAY...VFR.

MTF

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

BEHIND A COOL FRONT WHICH PASSED LATE ON SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. THIS WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE
NEARSHORE AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...FAVORING HIGH WAVES INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY EASING WINDS. A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT...OFFERING
A WIND SHIFT BUT NO REAL INCREASE IN SPEED. THAT IS IN PART BECAUSE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TO HUDSON BAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY. A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MAY BE IN STORE AS SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THE LOW PRESSURE.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS MADE THIS MORNING...WITH
FORECAST GENERALLY RIGHT ON TRACK.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* GUSTY ENELY-NELY WINDS TO G15-20KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MAX SPEED AND DURATION OF GUSTS.

* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MIFG THAT FORMS IN THE
REGION WILL NOT IMPACT THE ORD/MDW TERMINALS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR MVFR.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHC FOR MORNING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR
SATURDAY...VFR.

MTF

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1118 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS MADE THIS MORNING...WITH
FORECAST GENERALLY RIGHT ON TRACK.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS ENDING BY 18Z. A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE
BKN DECK OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

* GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO G15-18KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

THE TERMINALS LIE BETWEEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WHICH PASSED
LATE YESTERDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHEAST
SYNOPTIC WIND. INITIALLY...THROUGH 14Z...A SLIGHTLY MORE NNW WIND
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST IL DUE TO A REMNANT LAND BREEZE FROM
THE NIGHT. THIS IS AIDING CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHEAST IL THAT
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS DEVELOPING CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE INTO
NORTHEAST IL BY MID MORNING...AND LIKELY TOWARD GYY AS WELL. THESE
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS ARE PRESENTLY FAVORED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2000
FT BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE AT THE TERMINALS...BUT AT ONSET SOME
COULD BE BELOW 2000 FT. THAT SHOULD BE BRIEF IF THAT OCCURS.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMPONENT OVER THE WATER
WEAKENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON MONDAY.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CIGS BELOW
2000 FT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MAXIMUM GUST SPEED.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RETURNING BROKEN CIGS TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR MVFR.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHC FOR MORNING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR
SATURDAY...VFR.

MTF

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS MADE THIS MORNING...WITH
FORECAST GENERALLY RIGHT ON TRACK.

RATZER

.PREV DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* LAKE EFFECT CIGS BECMG MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MAY
BE BRIEFLY BELOW 2 KFT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT TO 2-2.5 KFT.

* NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMG GUSTY TO G15KT BY LATE MORNING.

* SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CIGS BELOW
2000 FT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN GUSTS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RETURNING BROKEN CIGS TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR MVFR.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHC FOR MORNING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR
SATURDAY...VFR.

MTF

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

904 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* LAKE EFFECT CIGS BECMG MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MAY
BE BRIEFLY BELOW 2 KFT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT TO 2-2.5 KFT.

* NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMG GUSTY TO G15KT BY LATE MORNING.

* SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CIGS BELOW
2000 FT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN GUSTS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RETURNING BROKEN CIGS TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR MVFR.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHC FOR MORNING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR
SATURDAY...VFR.

MTF

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

647 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS PROBABLE DURING THE MID-MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH AT ONSET COULD BE BELOW 2000 FT.
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BY MID-MORNING.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CIGS BELOW
2000 FT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN GUSTS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RETURNING BROKEN CIGS TONIGHT.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR MVFR.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHC FOR MORNING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. CHC OF SHRA AND MVFR
SATURDAY...VFR.

MTF

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

354 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS PROBABLE IN THE COUPLE HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK AND LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL CHC FOR
THEM TO BE NEAR 1700 FT AT ONSET.
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED SOON AFTER DAYBREAK.

/DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

THE COOL FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS LAST EVE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES OVER WARM LAKE MICHIGAN. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST IL AND LIKELY NORTHWEST IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THESE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY AT
ONSET...AND THEN VERY SLOWLY LIFT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE DO LOOK TO BE PRETTY THIN...UNDER 1500 FT IN
DEPTH...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE FAVORED FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH STILL GENERALLY COOL AIR OVER THE LAKE...FEW
TO SCT LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS MAY TRY TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
BUT LESS IN THE WAY OF AN ADVECTION COMPONENT MAY KEEP ANY
OFFSHORE.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 2000-3500 FT CIGS OCCURRING. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS.

MTF/IZZI

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

343 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS PROBABLE NEAR OR SOON AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR THEM TO BE NEAR 1700 FT AT ONSET.
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED SOON AFTER DAYBREAK.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OCCURRING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS.

MTF/IZZI

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

332 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD WHICH
MAY TAKE AWAY SOME INSOLATION TODAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
850MB TEMPERATURES...THEREFORE HIGHS TODAY LIKELY A DEGREE OR TWO
LESS THAN SATURDAY. THREAT OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS NIL WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE SET TO IMPACT THE REGION IN THE COMING
SEVEN DAYS...INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGING THAT HAS BROUGHT US QUIET AND MILD
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SLOWLY PINCHED OFF TODAY BETWEEN A 500
MB CUTOFF LOW OVER ARKANSAS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
ALLOW THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF
LIFT HOWEVER THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE THUS INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON MONDAY BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SPOTTY AND
VERY LIGHT. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH A PACIFIC HIGH WILL BUILD
IN...WITH AN AIRMASS ONLY A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT PRECEDED THE
FRONT AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE WAVE THAT MOVED BY ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL PHASE
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER FROM THE OZARKS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FIRST 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A MORE POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE WHEELING FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRIEF
SHOT OF RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND IOWA ON WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE TRENDED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME MID-80S ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANY LOVERS OF WARM WEATHER SHOULD BREATHE DEEP ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIG EASTWARD AND PUSH A POWERFUL SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
WHICH PRECLUDES HIGHER THAN 30-40 POPS FOR NOW...HOWEVER THERE IS A
GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND UNANIMOUS SIGNS OF A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL SUCCEEDING 500
MB SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE BOWL OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. THAT WILL KEEP US COOL AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ACROSS IOWA ONLY IN THE 50S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WE MAY SEE ONE OR MORE SHOTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED/LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.AVIATION...30/06Z
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE AT
KOTM...AND IS ALSO SHOWING UP AT KAMW...WHERE MVFR HZ VSYBS HAVE
DEVELOPED. ONLY EXPLANATION SEEMS TO BE HARVEST RESIDUE TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERSION AS DEPICTED IN RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1200 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS IN PROGRESS. SFC
THETA-E VALUES WILL TREND A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THE HIGHER SFC THETA-E VALUES IN ADDITION TO WARMING IN THE
950-925 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL BE THE BASE OF THE OVERNIGHT
INVERSION...WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT
FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH THE
ENTRANCE OF A DECENT SHORT WAVE OVER CANADA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW
OVER TX/OK/LA DEEPENS. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING ARE DRY THROUGH 700 MB THOUGH
THERE IS SOME FORCING WITH THE FRONT...WHICH DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH POPS AND MENTION SHOWERS THOUGH THERE IS MOISTURE AT 700 MB AND
THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING. THE AIR IS NOT REALLY COLD
BEHIND THE FRONT SO I TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS FAR SOUTH.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH MID 70S OR SO NORTH.
MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK SO I WAS
CONSERVATIVE IN TEMPS BUT OF THE EURO IS RIGHT THEN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WHAT I CURRENTLY HAVE. THE EURO IS
CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER SO I DID NOT PUT ALL MY CONFIDENCE IN THAT
MODEL JUST YET.

THEN FOR THE GAME CHANGER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
DEEPENING LOW OVER CANADA CARVES OUT A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DECIDED LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT FORCING IS STRONGER AND MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO I AM MORE CONFIDENT THAT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT
TEMPS WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW NORTH. THE FORCING WITH THE
FRONT HOWEVER WILL BE DONE AND PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE IT
SWITCHES TO SNOW. IF HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN QUICKER OR
THE FORCING LASTS LONGER WE MAY NEED TO ADDRESS AT LEAST A RAIN TO
SNOW WORDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY. THIS WILL CHANGE TO TEMP TRENDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW GOES ZONAL BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
OF CANADIAN ORIGIN PARKS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST KEEPING SOME VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL
BE REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

406 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...CORRECTED THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE 500MB LEVEL A -14
TO -15C THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ANOTHER COLDER UPPER LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED NEAR
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA CANADA. AT THE 700MB
LEVEL A +5 TO +7C THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SOME 700-600MB MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE NORTH PLATTE
SOUNDING AND RAP. MOSAIC RADAR LOOP ALSO PICKED UP ON A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. NEAR THE SURFACE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH BASED THE EARLY MORNING STATUS/FOG, LOW TO MID 50S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, AND +10 TO +12C 850MB DEWPOINTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

LATEST RAP WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z NAM AND THEY BOTH VERIFIED
FAIRLY WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
A 0-1KM THTA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE LATE TODAY AS 500MB TEMPERATURE COOL AND
INSTABILITY IMPROVES. WILL THEREFORE RETAIN MENTION OF LATE
DAY/EARLY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER MONTANA EARLIER TODAY WILL DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND BY EARLY MONDAY THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL EARLY IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET, BETTER 700MB MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS WILL
RETAIN MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. BUFR SOUNDING WIND
PROFILES INDICATED 30KTS AT 800MB LEVEL BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
MEAN MIXED LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTING WINDS SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH WERE SIMILAR TO THE
MOSGUIDE, AND CONSMOS. THIS ALSO ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO GIVEN A SLIGHT SUPER NEAR THE SURFACE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO NEAR 80 DEGREE
RANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW. IN THE ABSENCE OF LEE TROUGHING, PLEASANT WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE FAIRLY COOL IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE
MORNING GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
OUT PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LIGHT WINDS. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S IN PLACES
LIKE SCOTT CITY AND DIGHTON, WITH WARMER 80S FROM DODGE CITY INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES THROUGH AND THE
JET STREAK APPROACHES. SO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM DODGE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

THERE ARE MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS BY
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM WINNIPEG SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
INTERESTINGLY, EVEN THOUGH THE PATTERNS ARE DIFFERENT IN THE
GFS/ECMWF, THEY BOTH SHOW MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT, BOTH MODELS
SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
FAIRLY COOL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THE GFS KEEPS A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WOULD BE A COOL AND MAINLY DRY REGIME. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR BECOMES WEDGED UNDERNEATH
THE WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WOULD YIELD A CLOUDY
PATTERN WITH PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
AND POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF AT DAY 6 WHILE THE GEM AGREES MORE WITH THE GFS. DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY, WE JUST OPTED TO GO WITH THE ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION, WHICH FEATURES COOL BUT DRY WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING UNDER A -14 TO -15C 500MB THERMAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE THTA-E RIDGE
AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BY THE NAM/RAP WILL FOCUS ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIOR TO
00Z AT GCK AND HYS. AT DDC THE CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 21Z WITH A VCTS THROUGH 03Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CIGS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3000FT SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE AT 10KTS OR
LESS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 76 40 74 / 30 20 0 0
GCK 52 75 41 75 / 40 20 0 0
EHA 52 75 42 76 / 60 20 0 0
LBL 52 76 42 75 / 60 20 0 0
HYS 52 76 41 74 / 20 20 0 0
P28 53 80 46 74 / 10 20 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

400 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THERE ARE MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS BY
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM WINNIPEG SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
INTERESTINGLY, EVEN THOUGH THE PATTERNS ARE DIFFERENT IN THE
GFS/ECMWF, THEY BOTH SHOW MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT, BOTH MODELS
SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
FAIRLY COOL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE GFS KEEPS A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BE A COOL AND MAINLY DRY REGIME. THE ECMWF
INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR BECOMES WEDGED
UNDERNEATH THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WOULD YIELD
A CLOUDY PATTERN WITH PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UKMET IS
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AT DAY 6 WHILE THE GEM AGREES MORE WITH THE
GFS. DUE TO THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY, WE JUST OPTED TO GO WITH THE
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION, WHICH FEATURES COOL BUT DRY WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 76 40 74 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 52 75 41 75 / 30 20 0 0
EHA 52 75 42 76 / 40 20 0 0
LBL 52 76 42 75 / 30 20 0 0
HYS 52 76 41 74 / 20 20 0 0
P28 53 80 46 74 / 10 20 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

148 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE 500MB LEVEL A -14
TO -15C THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER COLDER UPPER LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED NEAR
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA CANADA. AT THE 700MB
LEVEL A +5 TO +7C THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOU TERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SOME 700-600MB MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE NORTH PLATTE
SOUNDING AND RAP. MOSAIC RADAR LOOP ALSO PICKED UP ON A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. NEAR THE SURFACE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH BASED THE EARLY MORNING STATUS/FOG, LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS, AND +10 TO +12C 850MB DEWPOINTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AN 80-100 KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY BEFORE THE CORE OF STRONGER
JET WINDS ROTATE ONTO THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY EARLY
TUESDAY. UPSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
EXIST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE A POTENT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 100
KNOT JET STREAK DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AIDING
IN PUSHING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
FURTHER, THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL INTERACT WITH AN
800-700 HPA BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND RESULTANT ASCENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +14 TO +18C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD OF A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PUSH A POTENT COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY AS THE
APPROACHING WAVE AIDS IN DEEPENING THE LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
ALLOW MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
KEEP 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ON THURSDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS OF
+5 TO +10C AND RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER WAVE THEN EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON
BAY REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INITIALLY STALL THE FIRST BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A SECOND FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...JET DYNAMICS
ARE SHOWN TO INTERACT WITH A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE
AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AND RESULTANT ASCENT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS POSSIBLE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 77 45 78 / 30 20 0 0
GCK 52 77 44 79 / 30 20 0 0
EHA 52 77 47 80 / 20 20 0 0
LBL 52 78 45 78 / 30 20 0 0
HYS 52 77 44 78 / 30 20 0 0
P28 53 81 48 78 / 10 20 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1129 PM MDT SAT SEP 29 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SAT SEP 29 2012

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE THROUGH TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS CONFIRMED
BY SURFACE ANALYSIS. SURFACE TROUGH STILL CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND
MODELS HAVE THIS TOO FAR EAST. THE RUC FOLLOWED BY THE HRRR AND
NAM WERE THE BEST MODELS WITH THIS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL STAY
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALLOWED AN
INCREASE IN BLYR MOISTURE. BECAUSE OF ALL THIS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS AND ALSO INSERTED
AREAS OF FOG OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING AT 06Z. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS ACCORDING THE RUC...NAM...AND HRRR.

CURRENTLY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE SHOW DEEP DRY LAYER AND
LITTLE IF ANY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. LIFT FROM INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY BY LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO ELEVATED CAPE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH CINH THAT CAN BE OVERCOME. SO CONFINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND TO THE WEST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THEN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER
12Z AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SAT SEP 29 2012

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TIMING WILL KEEP POPS NIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE
THE FIRST ZONES TO HAVE ANY CHANCE THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS WILL
THEN SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. AFTER A MORNING LULL, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY
EAST OF GOODLAND.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH GETS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 29 2012

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DOWN
FOR SUNDAY TO WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WITH THE LATEST GEFS MEMBERS ALSO SLOWING THE TROUGH DOWN
WILL KEEP HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE EAST PAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE
SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE. MEANWHILE A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS MIX DOWN FROM 700MB.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE DRY AS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVE THROUGH AND POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.

FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WITH THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH
1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIP. CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA LINE. THE TROUGH BROADENS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE 1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...SO
WILL KEEP PRECIP. CHANCES IN THE SILENT CATEGORY FOR NOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN
LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE FROST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MID 30S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT SEP 29 2012

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM EARLIER THINKING. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH A NUMBER PARAMETERS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...STRATUS/FOG...AND QUICKENED
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. 88D SHOWS THAT
RETURNS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS FROM THE 00Z
ISSUANCE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES/BEGINS. DUE TO THAT UNCERTAINTY KEPT ONLY THE
VCTS MENTION.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

537 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF FUNDY WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND
WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WITH SFC LOW PRES NEARING THE COAST OF DOWNEAST ME WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO TURN MORE WLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. WILL SEE
THESE GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS...AND SCA IN PLACE LOOKS
GOOD FOR TNGT. WILL ALSO SEE WLY WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT COASTAL AND
ADJACENT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SRN NH AND SWRN ME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION UNDER THE UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD THIS EVE.
EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT HI
RES MODELS SUGGEST THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE FAR SRN CWFA. HAVE HELD ONTO CHC POP HERE LONGER THAN
THE REST OF THE COAST FOR THIS REASON. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FCST WITH LATEST HRRR POP FIELD LOOKED LIKE A GOOD APPROXIMATION
FOR TIMING AND HAVE USED THIS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND INTO DOWNEAST MAINE AS OF LATE THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS WELL...WITH THE BACK EDGE ALONG A LINE FROM
PORTLAND ME WESTWARD TO LITTLETON NH. THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL END
WITH THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE BACK EDGE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
UPPER LOW IS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...SO SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING IN THE DRIER AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT SCALED BACK ON POPS TOO MUCH IN THE SOUTH
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH TIL ABOUT 00Z...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST
AS PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW AT THIS TIME.

AFTER DARK...THE SHOWERY PRECIP WILL WANE. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL PLAIN MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...DIDN/T GET RID OF POPS COMPLETELY...AS UPPER LOW IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT/S ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT A LARGER AREA OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS DEVELOPS LATE
ALSO.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A
GOOD CONTRIBUTION COMING FROM WESTERLY UPSLOPE.

MIN TEMPS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV/NAM GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED OVER MAINE 8
AM MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND SHOWERY PRECIP LIKELY OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...BUT PROBABILITY IS A LITTLE TO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. TIMING OF UPPER LOW PASSAGE IS
JUST A LITTLE TOO QUICK WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HEATING AT THIS
TIME.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL DRYING TAKES PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
SHOWERS PROBABLY STILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER.

CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPS WHICH WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 70S
IN THE SOUTH.

SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OCEAN STRATUS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL HOLD READINGS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION WILL BE GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST ZONES AND FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AS
FORCING LIMITED AT BEST.

MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY TO PRODUCE A FEW SUNNY BREAKS IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

QUICK SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN INLAND
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
BLOW THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND
OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR POISED TO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY MORNING SO WILL LIKELY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS PEAK DURING THE
LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW
NORMAL AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE TREND
WILL BE TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR IN SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN
THE MORNING...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE
MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
FOR G25KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT. SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
SUBSIDE...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.

LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

437 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH A DRY BREAK MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...COMING
SLOWLY NORTH FROM LOUISIANA...BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. RECENT RAP MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWS H5 TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -24C PASSING THROUGH AT
LEAST WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE CAN BE BRIEF EPISODES OF SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL/ BUT COVERAGE TOO RESTRICTED TO CONFIDENTLY MENTION.

HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG PER RECENT SURFACE DATA...BUT
EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 9 AM.

FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE UP TO 5 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PER RECENT SREF AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT...THAT SHOW A FASTER UPPER
LOW CENTER EXIT EAST...HAVE ENDED SHOWER CHANCES EARLIER THIS EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS LIKEWISE DECREASING FASTER...CONCUR WITH NAM MODEL
PROFILES THAT NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT.

EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY BREAK FOR MOST OF
DAYTIME MONDAY. THEN SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...COMING SLOWLY NORTH FROM LOUISIANA...WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
AND NAM MODEL PROFILES...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE COOLER THAN NORMAL
MONDAY...BUT THEN WARM TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...ENDING THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
DISTRICT FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH BKN-OVC STRATOCU AND
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE WILL BE PATCHY MVFR FOG THROUGH DAWN AT
THE USUAL PORTS.

LARGE UL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP IN CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH VFR CIGS IN THE
SOUTH...WHILE MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. A SHOWER/STORM
IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME TODAY...SO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AT ALL PORTS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR FOG AND STRATUS
TOWARD DAWN ON MON. GENERAL VFR RETURNS FOR DAYTIME MONDAY...BUT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VFR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

119 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE UPSTREAM FROM MN TO NEAR JAMES BAY.
SINCE THE LOW HAS EDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...COOLER AIR AND AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH
UPPER MI WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS FAVORED
BY NE UPSLOPE FLOW. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV AND NOSE OF A
250-300 JET STREAK WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES.

TODAY...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS TO THIN OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
ERLY WINDS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE 925-850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH MAX
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

TONIGHT...THE SRN CANADA SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND
WILL HELP NUDGE THE BLOCKY DOWNSTREAM RIDGE/TROUGH TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...MDLS/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT ANY PCPN WITH THE
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AN INCREASE IN SRLY
WINDS AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF AS MUCH. LOOK FOR MIN READINGS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND AND CLOSE TO 50 FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND WHERE DOWNSLOPE SSW
FLOW PREVAILS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AT 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN HUDSON BAY TO WRN MN. AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...A SFC TROUGH WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...OR MUCH QPF...BUT MOST DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES MON INTO
MON NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM THAT MODELS SHOW
ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION AROUND THE CWA THU. MODELS THEN SHOW REINFORCING UPPER ENERGY
AND COLD AIR MOVING IN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND QUITE TRICKY. THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH MOST MODELS AS WELL AS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE OVERALL IDEA SHOWN
BY MODELS IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION THU...AND THEN MOVE NE TO JAMES BAY OR
QUEBEC FRI. NW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW FRI INTO
SAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL NORTHERLY TREND WITH THE LOW
TRACK...MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SHOWN BETTER CONTINUITY. NOW
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS (00Z/30) SLOWED THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM BY 12-18 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. WITH THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY S OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AT AROUND LAT 45N LON 160W IT IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY TRADITIONAL UPPER AIR NETWORK...SO HOPEFULLY
CONFIDENCE WILL BE IMPROVED WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
OBSERVATION NETWORK OF WRN CANADA AROUND 00Z TUE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
POINT THAT THERE IS A VERY WIDE GAMUT OF POSSIBLE REALITIES
RESULTING FROM DIFFERENT PATHS THIS SYSTEM MAY TAKE. IF THE SYSTEM
GOES MORE S OF THE CWA...SE TO NE GALES AND A WETTER/SNOWIER
FORECAST MAY RESULT. IF THE SYSTEM GOES N OF THE CWA...W GALES AND A
DRIER FORECAST MAY RESULT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. IF THE SYSTEM GOES OVER THE CWA...A
COMBINATION OF THE PREVIOUS SCENARIOS MAY RESULT. OF COURSE...THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER (OR EVEN STRONGER) THAN WHAT THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. AM
REALLY NOT CERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE NRN
TRACK OF THE MORE PERSISTENT ECMWF AND FORECAST PERSISTENCE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH
WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD BE SOME
LLWS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK
SW LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY.
SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
MONDAY AND THEN TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE TUESDAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY WITH
STRONG WRLY WINDS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

738 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

ANY LEFTOVER SHALLOW FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z THIS
MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES OVER
ONTARIO DOMINATING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

511 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
WITH DRY HI PRES OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING. WITH A LIGHT E UPSLOPE
WIND...SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT SAW. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE SOME MVFR
CIGS MIGHT IMPACT CMX/SAW THRU TODAY...BUT THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO
DRY TO FCST THESE LOWER CONDITIONS ATTM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC/JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

316 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH HAD DRIFTED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
OF 20Z WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA. SFC WIND WAS TURNING
FROM THE SE TO THE S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT
AND NW WI BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY FROPA WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ALL MODELS WHICH ARE DRY
BELOW 10K FT. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS FROM TWO HARBORS TO THE TWIN PORTS AND PORT WING WI
AS WELL AS INLAND TO SUW WHICH THE LATEST HI RES MODELS HRRR AND
NARRE AGREE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.

BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY A NW WIND IS EXPECTED
AND IT WILL HELP USHER IN COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 NEAR PBH AND
BRD.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERLAYS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A CLEARING SKY TO PRODUCE MIN TEMPS IN
THE 30S...TO AROUND 45 NEAR PBH. THE WARMER TEMPS NEAR PBH ARE DUE
TO LINGERING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...[TUESDAY - SATURDAY]...

SNOW IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR LATER THIS WEEK. THE
EXPECTED TREND IS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH...WILL USHER IN RAIN AND MUCH COLDER
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. THE PCPN COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD WEATHER STICKS AROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER THE SNOW
WILL HAPPEN...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY GUESSES
ABOUT ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL FAR OUT.
AT THIS POINT...DID NOT FORECAST ANY PERIODS OF PURE SNOW...BUT SOME
PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE
MAY BE FOG SOUTH OF KDLH...BUT AT THIS TIME...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TOMORROW MORNING NEAR KDLH AND KHIB.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 65 39 63 / 10 10 0 0
INL 46 64 33 66 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 51 68 35 70 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 43 66 39 68 / 10 10 10 0
ASX 44 67 39 64 / 10 10 10 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

948 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 02Z INDICATES A ~1020MB HIGH NEAR
KTIF AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...WITH WIND INTENSITY
CONTINUING TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP SHOP
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL PRESENT A COOL AIRMASS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMING VERY LIGHT
AND SKIES REMAINING CLEAR...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE OUT
VERY EFFICIENTLY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
DROP-OFFS OF 35-40 DEGREES. WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEM REASONABLE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT WARMER LOWS FOR LOCATIONS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LOWS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE ALSO SUGGESTED MY MANY SETS OF
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUALLY COOLER NAM/MET
GUIDANCE...WHICH PLUMMETS OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 30 ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. SEEING AS THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WILL PLAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE...BUT STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 33 THROUGH RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
CWA...AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR KODX WHICH
ALWAYS SEEMS TO TANK IN SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS. ALTHOUGH NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS CONCEIVABLE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD NEAR
30 AS NAM/MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT IT IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN AND MOSTLY
RELEGATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIVER VALLEYS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. DID CONTEMPLATE GOING WITH A FROST
ADVISORY TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH THE LATEST UPDATE CALLS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TO FALL TO 33 OR 34 DEGREES...IT IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOVER CLOSER TO 35 OR 36 DEGREES...THUS
KEEPING FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PATCHY SIDE AND AGAIN...MOSTLY
RELEGATED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PERHAPS POINTS FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SO...NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT...BUT DID FRESHEN
UP THE FROST WORDING IN THE HWO. ONLY REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WERE TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FROST IN
THE GRIDS...MORE OR LESS COSMETIC CHANGES TO BETTER MATCH WHERE
THE CURRENT OBS ARE HEADING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KGRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
NOTHING IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT 18KTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR
25KTS...THROUGH 03Z OR SO. LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND...UNTIL A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND ESTABLISHES ITSELF AT AROUND 09KTS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR BEHIND THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY RELAX AROUND SUNSET...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
NORTH. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY AREA OF FROST
FORM IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH VERY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR
FROST IN THE FORECAST...AND A VERY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IN
MODEL GUIDANCE...DECIDED AGAINST ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL BE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A VERY PATCHY FROST EVENT.

OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EXPECT A
MAINLY CLOUD FREE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SHOWS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIT UNDER A SW-
NE ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...AND ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING SE
OUT OF WRN CANADA AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA...PUSHED BY THAT TROUGH TO THE NW.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...WITH THE NAM REMAINING ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF THING...AND
THE ECMWF/GFS NOTABLY SLOWER. AT 00Z THURSDAY...THE NAM IS
BASICALLY CLEARING THE SE CORNER OF THE CWA...WHERE THE EC/GFS ARE
JUST GETTING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NW CORNER. THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES COULD REALLY MESS UP THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY...AND DID BUMP THEM A TOUCH FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THINKING THAT WITH THE EVEN WITH THE QUICKER NAM PASSAGE...MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA TO REACH NEAR/INTO THE 80S. IF THE SLOWER GFS/EC IS CLOSER TO
REALITY...WARMER TEMPS WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER BACK NW
INTO THE ODX/LXN AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE CWA. MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE BETTER
CHANCES...AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AND AS A 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STARTS TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST. DID UP POPS A BIT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALSO
KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE 06-12Z PERIOD AND
ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT EXPECTING THAT THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE DRYING OUT. EXPECTING SOME GUSTIER NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...AT WHAT
POINT IT STARTS IS A LITTLE UP IN THE AIR /COULD BE WED EVENING
FROM THE NAM OR CLOSER TO 06Z FROM THE EC AND GFS/. EITHER
WAY...EXPECTING THOSE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS THURSDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. FORECAST CURRENTLY
CALLING FOR MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THOUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT IT IS A
SHORT BREAK AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TAKES AIM ON THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PERIOD IS LOWER...AS
SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCE EXIST BETWEEN MODELS...AND DIDNT GET
BETTER WITH THE 12Z RUN. INHERITED FORECAST HAD THE MAIN POPS
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AND KEPT THAT IN PLACE.
THE PROBLEMS LIE WITH THE 12Z GFS COMING IN WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACTUALLY
DRIES EVERYTHING OUT BY 12Z SATURDAY...VS THE ECMWF WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
ITS QPF. WAS FINE WITH ALLBLEND WHICH KEPT THINGS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. ANOTHER COMPLICATING PIECE OF THE FORECAST THAT
WILL NEED TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
ECMWF IS STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS ALONG WITH ITS
SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET
SNOW MIXING IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO CONTINUE KEEPING
THE SNOW OUT FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODELS AT LEAST START
TRENDING TOWARD ONE SOLUTION BEFORE INSERTING THE FIRST SNOW
MENTION OF THE FALL SEASON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT IS GOING TO BE A
COOL START TO THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWER 50S...BUT
IF THINGS STAY WITH/TREND TOWARD THE WETTER/SLOWER EC
SOLUTION...MANY LOCATIONS WOULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THIS LATEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DRY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS SHIFTING EAST...SUNNIER SKIES...AND
MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT DEVELOPING TO THE WINDS...WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
BY MONDAY. STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BETTER
THAN THE 40S/50S POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

356 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE TWO
PRIMARY ISSUES AT HAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FIRST BEING
A POSSIBLE BUT STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND THE SECOND MAIN ISSUE BEING ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEB TO NORTHWEST KS...SEPARATING A
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT/SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME TO THE EAST FROM A
STRONGER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WEST. WITHIN AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING MAINLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE
CWA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TODAY BETWEEN THE MID 40S
AND MID 50S...AND THERE ARE EVEN NOW SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
FIELD STARTING TO SHOW ITS HAND. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA...DEWPOINTS HAVE AGAIN DONE THEIR
SEEMINGLY DAILY CRASH WELL INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...ONCE
AGAIN BELOW FORECAST VALUES. ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS ARE WORKING OUT
PRETTY WELL...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
OTHER THAN THE NEWLY DEVELOPED CUMULUS FIELD IN PARTS OF THE
WEST...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER HIGH
CIRRUS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS VACATED EAST OF THE CWA...WHILE A
FEW LEGITIMATE SHOWERS/NEWLY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING BOTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEB AND NORTHWEST KS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA DEPICTS AN ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CWA...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE LOWS CONSISTING OF A DEEP
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...A VERY SLOW MOVING
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OK...AND A PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIPPING OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE MT/ND/SD REGION.

STARTING WITH THE MOST IMMEDIATE ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR
SO...HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS PRIMARILY WEST OF AN ORD-
KEARNEY-PLAINVILLE LINE AND ESPECIALLY DAWSON...GOSPER AND FURNAS
COUNTIES WHICH ARE ABOUT THE ONLY PARTS OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
MOIST AXIS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH 20Z MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE AT LEAST INTO
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE IS NOW IN PLACE IN THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA HAS
ESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AT THIS HOUR...AND THIS WILL
NOT CHANGE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING AROUND 20 KT...AM NOT EXPECTING A
LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THERE IS MORE THAN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS OR
A FEW QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS GOING...WITH SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH VERY POSSIBLE. FOLLOWING THE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OF
THE LATEST HRRR AND ALSO 12Z 4KM-WRF NMM...THERE COULD BE A DECENT
LULL IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ONCE THE MID EVENING HOURS ARRIVE
AND THE LOW LEVELS START TO STABILIZE A BIT. FOR THE LATE NIGHT
06Z-12Z POP/WEATHER GRIDS...OPTED TO BLANKET A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF
THE CWA INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND A RESULTANT SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BAND
OF MID LEVEL SATURATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THIS LATE NIGHT PRECIPITATION
MIGHT BE...WITH BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING IT COULD BE
NARROW BUT FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF MEASURABLE RAIN...WHILE THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER THROUGH SUNRISE ALONG WITH THE 4KM WRF-NMM. AT ANY
RATE...NOT EXPECTING ANY LATE NIGHT STORMS TO BE ALL THAT STRONG
LET ALONE SEVERE. KEPT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND...GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND 50.

FOR THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS...BY SUNRISE A WELL DEFINED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THROUGH THE
CWA...AND REALLY THE MOST PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
DAY WILL BE THE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE...AS
NORTH WINDS AVERAGE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 MPH SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY...AM
STARTING TO WONDER IF THE FORECAST 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
CWA IS HIGH ENOUGH...AS THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE NOW SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED NARROW BAND OF LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL PASSING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH MOST OF THE SATURATION ABOVE 700MB AM HESITANT TO
GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT BOTH THE
18Z NAM AND 12Z WRF-NMM SHOW A MUCH MORE HIT AND MISS...LESS
ORGANIZED BAND. STAYED WITH THE THEME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND
LEFT THIS MORNING PRECIP RISK AS JUST SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
MENTION...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEFT
THE AFTERNOON 18Z-00Z PERIOD PRECIP FREE...BUT THERE A FEW HINTS
IN LATEST MODELS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...AND THE
NEXT SHIFTS WILL WANT TO SEE IF MAYBE THIS RAIN MENTION NEEDS
EXTENDED IN TIME A BIT. BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE AND SEEING PLENTY OF SUN...AS THE PARENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND RESULTANT MID LEVEL SATURATION STARTS TO FOCUS
EAST OF THE AREA. TEMP WISE...LOWERED HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS IN MOST AREAS...FOLLOWING THE RAW 12Z NAM SOLUTION
CLOSELY AND RANGING FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
DID LOWER DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE
DOES WEAKEN...HOWEVER IN THE COOLER...DRY AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. SFC DPS DROP TO THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S AND ITS LOOKING LIKE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL
INTO THE TEMPERATURE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR FROST...IN THE LOW/MID
30S. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SIMILAR LOW TEMPS
THIS SEASON OR COLDER AND WILL NOT MENTION FROST...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO FREEZE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WASHES OUT/SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN
MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOSES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN BETWEEN
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY...BUT WITH COOL START
TO THE DAY AND LESS MIXING WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S VS NEAR
80F.

WEDNESDAY IS REALLY ONE OF THE TRICKIER DAYS DUE TO TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES OF 10+MB PROGGED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. IN
GENERAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH AT LEAST OUR WESTERN THIRD CWA...IF NOT HALF OF THE
CWA BY 18Z. WITH THE FASTER TREND...HAVE SHARPENED TEMP GRADIENT
NW/SE WITH AND LOWERED HIGHS IN OUR NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 70S. IF
FRONT TRENDS ANY FASTER...COULD SEE TEMPS FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OUR NW ZONES MAY NOT REACH 70F. THIS BEING SAID...IF
FRONT IS SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF VS NAM/GFS...TEMPS MAY
BE WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

PCPN CHCS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM ARE DEEPER
WITH TROUGH THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. HAVE CONCERNS THAT ECMWF IS TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH
SYSTEM...AND GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE LOOKS TO BE DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. IF THE DEEPER TROUGH SOLUTIONS VERIFY WE
COULD SEE A DECENT CHC FOR RAIN...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAISING POPS. THE TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH PCPN ENDING W/E.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...PATTERN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND THERE WILL BE SOME HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS ENERGY
TRANSLATES THRU FLOW.

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO FALL JUST A BIT SHORT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HOLDING AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THE CURRENTLY FORECAST
COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH/GUSTS
30-35 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 22-26
PERCENT RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WORDING IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BASED ON RAINFALL TRENDS OVER THE
PAST MONTH AND OFFICIAL FIRE GROWTH FUEL STATUS FROM FIRE
MANAGERS...THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE GUN
MORE SO THAN KS. ONE FACTOR THAT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARE US
FROM DROPPING TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS THAT
HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO DROPPED AT LEAST 5 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS DURING THE KEY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...NOW ADVERTISED BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S AND MID 30S IN MOST
COUNTIES. NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE
DEWPOINT/RH TRENDS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD
REQUIRE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR AT LEAST A SMALL PART OF MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA. LOOKING BEYOND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OUR NEXT POTENTIALLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER SITUATION...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ANY CEILING LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LIKELY AVERAGING ABOVE 10 THOUSAND
FEET. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LIKELY FOCUSING AT LEAST 60 MILES WEST OF KGRI. HAVE AIMED THE
INITIAL SWITCH TO STEADY NORTHERLY BREEZES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AT 10Z FOR NOW...WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 27KT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WISE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
TERMINAL SEEING AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1215 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.UPDATE...RECENTLY SHIPPED AN UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH 00Z. PRIMARY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DELAY
ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL 21Z...AND EVEN THEN KEPT THESE
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-KEARNEY-PLAINVILLE
LINE...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP FOR AREAS NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH SUNSET. LATEST MODELS HAVEN/T CHANGED
THE OVERALL THINKING MUCH...AS MID-LATE AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL SLATED TO FOCUS VERY NEAR A ROUGHLY NORTH-
SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEB INTO
NORTHWEST KS...WITH DAWSON...GOSPER AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN THE CWA
MOST FAVORED TO SEE THIS CONVECTION. LATEST HOURLY MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS IS ALREADY SUGGESTING AT LEAST 500 J/KG OF LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...BUT LIKELY WITH ENOUGH CINH TO HOLD
THE MAIN SHOW OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...A
SMALL...ROGUE STORM THAT FORMED AROUND SUNRISE HAS ALREADY BARELY
SKIRTED WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKED FROM NORTH OF
MCCOOK TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION SOUTH OF HILL CITY. STILL NOT
THINKING MUCH SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING AROUND 20KT...BUT SMALL HAIL TO DIME/PENNY
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH GIVEN THE INVERTED-V LOOK TO
SOUNDINGS ARE CERTAINLY FAIR GAME IF THINGS EVENTUALLY DO GET
GOING. BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD
THIS STORM COVERAGE MIGHT BE...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ONLY 30
PERCENT/SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR NOW. ANY INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR STORM
CLUSTERS WILL DRIFT ALMOST DUE SOUTH AND SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY
EASTWARD PROPAGATION. AS FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE IF
ANY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST ALL AREAS STILL
LOOKING AT 79-82.

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ANY CEILING LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LIKELY AVERAGING ABOVE 10 THOUSAND
FEET. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LIKELY FOCUSING AT LEAST 60 MILES WEST OF KGRI. HAVE AIMED THE
INITIAL SWITCH TO STEADY NORTHERLY BREEZES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
10Z FOR NOW...WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 27KT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WISE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
TERMINAL SEEING AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS...BUT
DID INTRODUCE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS TO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HILL CITY KANSAS THIS
MORNING HAS KEPT WINDS LIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SCRAPING
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARMER
IN THE CLOUDY AREAS...AS OPPOSED TO CLOUD FREE REGIONS.

ONE EARLY...ALTHOUGH MINOR CONCERN...MAY BE A BIT OF FOG IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WESTERN FORECAST AREA. LATEST HRRR DATA IS SHYING AWAY
FROM ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN OUR FORECAST AREA...OPTING INSTEAD
JUST TO THE WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. MOST LIKELY THIS STUFF WOULDN/T GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...SO ITS A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER ITS
WORTH EVEN BEING PART OF THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW...ITS NOT LOOKING
TO LIKELY TO FORM.

THE MAIN STORY REST OF THE DAY IS WHETHER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST CAN SHARE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY
STARTS TO PUSHING THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON. THIS COINCIDES WITH NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY BRIEFLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO
SET UP. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
3-4 PM...AND THEN GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN...NOT SO MUCH FOR UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT KEPT THINGS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LARGE LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CLASSIC INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. BOTH
SUGGEST LIMITED RAINFALL...BUT SOME WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE INCLUDED SOME CHANCE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 281...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY WELL BE STRETCHING
IT WITH STORM MOTIONS PROBABLY AROUND 10KTS OR SO. LATEST MODELS
HAVE FAVORED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST PROFILE...SO KEPT THE BEST
SHOT FOR RAIN THERE.

WELL...ONCE THAT STUFF WRAPS BY LATE EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS
TO ONCOMING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. PRETTY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES AS THE FRONT PASSES...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
PRETTY STEADY BY LATE TONIGHT. GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL CONTINUE
ALL DAY MONDAY WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW GIVING US THE FIRST
BREEZY/WINDY DAY...SINCE THE LAST COLD FRONT A FEW DAYS AGO. MODELS
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...PROBABLY SPRINKLES. NONE THE
LESS...HAVE WORKED IN TANDEM WITH OTHER OFFICES TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE SUNSHINE TAKES OVER
LATER. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ONLY FEEL COOLER DUE TO THE NORTH
WIND...BUT ACTUALLY BE COOLER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

NOT MUCH ELSE TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO A REALLY NICE AND
MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. CHALLENGES WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
TIMING/COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE REALIZED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
FROM FROM AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TIMING WILL RELY SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
CURRENT ANALYSIS LEADS TO PRECIP BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS WEDNESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS CHANGE IS MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...850MB TEMPS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN THE
OUTPUT FROM ALLBLEND. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FRIDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RATHER TRICKY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SEEMS AS THOUGH THE
MODELS MAY HAVE FINALLY SETTLED ON A SOLUTION. THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW NEARLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST.
IN FACT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THURSDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FLIRTING WITH FROST POTENTIAL. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FROST ADVISORY
MIGHT HAVE SOME CREDIBILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

611 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAF FOR KGRI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE VALID TIME PERIOD. AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE REALIZED OVER THE TERMINAL
SITE TODAY. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ROLL IN OVER THE TAF SITE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

NOT MUCH ELSE TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO A REALLY NICE AND
MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

406 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

NOT MUCH ELSE TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO A REALLY NICE AND
MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. CHALLENGES WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
TIMING/COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE REALIZED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE
TERMINAL SITE AROUND SUNRISE...AND A PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES WILL
BEGIN IN THE WAKE OF AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM....NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

348 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AND
ENDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. GENERALLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASES AGAIN BY MID WEEK
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST TAKING SHAPE FOR TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HI-RES RAP/HRRR DATA HAS CAPTURED CURRENT SCENARIO OUT
THROUGH THE NEXT 8 HOURS QUITE WELL AND WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLN
ACCORDINGLY. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER TODAY...A DEEP WRN ATLANTIC/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AND ASSOCIATED RAFL HAS EVOLVED SSE-NNW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...CAPTURED NICELY BY AMSU/SSM-I BLENDED TPW. THIS RAIN
BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER OUR
CENTRAL AND NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...EVOLVING INTO
A PRIMARY DEFORMATION ZONE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER EDGES EAST. NOT
THE CLASSIC DEFORMATION SIGNATURE HOWEVER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDS
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PCPN SHIELD BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A MORE OROGRAPHIC CHARACTER. NONETHELESS A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE
AREAS. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY REMOVED AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND PIVOT POINT...AND WILL OFFER SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT ALL LOCATIONS TO AT LEAST SEE A
MEASUREABLE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH. LOWS AGAIN VERY
UNIFORM GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION...GENERALLY U40S TO L50S. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
HERE AND THERE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY...DEFORMATION/OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE/WEAKEN OVER TIME...WITH MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN MTNS TRENDING DRY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH CONDITIONS GUSTY AT
TIMES BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD MILDER AS 925-850 THERMAL PROFILES
GRADUALLY MODERATE...GENERALLY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH MILDEST
READINGS WEST.

FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY STATES. GENERALLY CLR TO PC CONDS EXPECTED
WITH MILDER NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND A
LOWER END THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEY REGION.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY FURTHER WEST WITH THIS
FEATURE ON THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HOWEVER...DEPICTING MILDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS MEAN H5
BERMUDA RIDGING STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WEST TO NEAR 30N/-70W. WITH
SUCH BROAD CONSENSUS...HARD TO IGNORE THIS POTENTIAL SHIFT IN
THINKING...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOMEWHAT INTO THE 30/40%
RANGE ALONG WITH RAISING MIN TEMPS BY 2-4 DEG ACROSS THE BOARD.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...FCST FOCUS WL BE TIMING OF RAIN CHCS AND
TEMPS IN ACTIVE SW FLW ALOFT FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WL RETROGRADE BACK WEST TWD THE EAST
COAST BY MID WEEK...WHICH WL RESULT IN BUILDING HGHTS AND A
BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN. THIS WL ALSO DEFLECT MID/UPPER LVL S/W
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...WELL WEST OF OUR CWA...PLACING OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR WEDS/THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C
WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME ACRS MTNS/NEK.
GEM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500 MB RH MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...BUT BEST PVA ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT IS LOCATED TO OUR
WEST...THEREFORE WL KEEP POPS BTWN 30 AND 50% ATTM. GIVEN THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST WOULD ANTICIPATE A HIGH POP LOW
QPF EVENT FOR THIS SYSTEM. AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS LIKLEY WITH
DWPTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F...WHICH WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDS NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT. BY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...AS SFC COLD
FRNT APPROACHES FA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF SYSTEM AND
IF SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT. GIVEN THE LARGE BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE...WL TREND TWD THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING OF
SYSTEM...BUT MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS THRU THE PERIODS. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CAA AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS
NORTHERN PA WL CONT TO ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACRS OUR TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT. OVERALL IFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT SLK/MSS WITH
MAINLY IFR AT BTV/MPV/RUT...AND MVFR AT PBG THRU THIS AFTN/EVENING. VAD
PROFILE SHOWS NORTHERLY FLW DOWN THE CPV...HELPING TO ENHANCE LLVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT BTV WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN ROTATING INTO OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL TAF SITES. OBS
INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AT 400 TO 800 FT. THIS BAND OF RAIN WL SLOWLY LIFT FROM
SE TO NW ACRS OUR TAF SITES THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN. THIS
EVENING...BOTH RAP AND NAM SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BTWN 03Z
AND 05Z...WHICH WL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE FLW AND SOME IMPROVING CIGS
AT BTV/PBG. WL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE
MAINLY IFR CIGS TO CONT AT MPV/RUT/SLK/MPV WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
REDUCING VIS BTWN 1-3SM AT TIMES. BUFKIT VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RH BTWN 13-15Z WITH BETTER
MIXING...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES. SLOWEST SITES
TO CLR WL BE SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGE WL RESULT IN DRYING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/MSS/RUT/PBG AND MVFR BECMG VFR AT
MPV/SLK FROM 18Z THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS AFTN
INTO THURS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION/WRAP-AROUND PCPN AFFECTING
THE REGION ASSOC WITH PASSG OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE. 24-HR BASIN
TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERSHEDS...AND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH SOUTH. ONLY MODESTLY
MOIST ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS AND ONLY SLIGHT TO MODEST RISES
ON AREA RIVERS OF 1-2 FEET EXPECTED AS RUNOFF PEAKS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

300 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NOW SHOWN
IN GFS SOLNS LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE AND 00Z ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ECMWF DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY. CURRENT FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWS 00Z GFS.

SRN STREAM 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS RIVER
VALLEY AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VCNTY OF THE UPR OHIO VLY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE QUITE WARM (00Z
GFS SHOWS +14C AT 850MB BY 12Z WED). WITH CLOUDS AND WAA SHOULD
SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO SHEAR
NEWD WITH WEAK SFC LOW PASSING WEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WED/WED NIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. AIR MASS QUITE
MILD SO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR MOST LIKELY...WITH LOWS
AGAIN IN THE 50S WED NIGHT. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AS TROUGH DEPARTS. 850MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO
ABOUT +10C FOR THURSDAY SO STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS UPR 60S TO LWR
70S. DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BRIEFLY IN PLACE THU NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
SO KEPT THAT PERIOD DRY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY AFTN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN ACROSS NRN
NY. PRECEDING AIR MASS STILL MILD WITH HIGHS UPR 60S TO LWR 70S
LIKELY. SHOWERS AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE. MAY
STILL SEE SOME ISOLD -SHRA WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS SATURDAY FORECAST AROUND 60
EXCEPT LOW-MID 50S FOR NRN NY. IT/S WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...SO
IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN FORECAST SATURDAY
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FCST
REFLECTS 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS.

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS
NORTHERN PA WL CONT TO ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACRS OUR TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT. OVERALL IFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT SLK/MSS WITH
MAINLY IFR AT BTV/MPV/RUT...AND MVFR AT PBG THRU THIS AFTN/EVENING. VAD
PROFILE SHOWS NORTHERLY FLW DOWN THE CPV...HELPING TO ENHANCE LLVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT BTV WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN ROTATING INTO OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL TAF SITES. OBS
INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AT 400 TO 800 FT. THIS BAND OF RAIN WL SLOWLY LIFT FROM
SE TO NW ACRS OUR TAF SITES THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN. THIS
EVENING...BOTH RAP AND NAM SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BTWN 03Z
AND 05Z...WHICH WL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE FLW AND SOME IMPROVING CIGS
AT BTV/PBG. WL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE
MAINLY IFR CIGS TO CONT AT MPV/RUT/SLK/MPV WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
REDUCING VIS BTWN 1-3SM AT TIMES. BUFKIT VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RH BTWN 13-15Z WITH BETTER
MIXING...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES. SLOWEST SITES
TO CLR WL BE SLK/MPV.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

152 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AS OF MID-
MORNING TO RAMP POPS UPWARD ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NRN COUNTIES PER
LATEST RADAR AND 10Z RAP/HRRR COMP REFLECTIVITY PROGS. IMPRESSIVE
WRN ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME AND ASSOC RAFL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND
PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS RAFL SHOULD SPREAD FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF VERMONT BY 18Z...THEN PIVOT SLOWLY WEST AND
THEN SOUTH ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES...TAKING ON A PRONOUNCED
DEFORMATIONAL SIGNATURE BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW
PASSES ATOP AND EAST OF THE REGION. 24-HR PCPN TOTALS BY 12Z
MONDAY FROM A FEW TENTHS SOUTH...AND GENERALLY IN THE 0.50 TO 1.0
INCH RANGE NORTH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE WRN NRN
MTN SLOPES. IN REGARD TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS...ONLY NOMINAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO T/TD/MAX T DATASETS...MAINLY BLENDING
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN WITH LATEST LAMP DATA...WHICH WOULD
OFFER NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES (1-2 DEG) TODAY. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLDY SKIES
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST. BULK OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE CWA ATTM...WITH ONLY --RW/-DZ AND
FG PERSISTING. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO GO THRU MORNING/EARLY
AFTNOON HRS...THEN INCR IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY COMES TO OUR
REGION AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NNE INTO QUEBEC. MOISTURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING THRU THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. DO EXPECT
FOCUS OF PRECIP TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM S TO N AS LOW GOES NORTH OF
US. TOWARDS MORNING WITH GENERAL WNW FLOW DEVELOPING...HIGHEST
POPS FOR REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER HIR
ELEV...ESPECIALLY NE VT. CLDY SKIES THRU THE 24-HR PERIOD WILL
KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STAGNANT. YESTERDAY/S HIGH/LOW COMBO WERE
57F/52F HERE AT BTV. EXPECTING SIMILAR TREND FOR HERE AND REST OF
CWA WITH LITTLE TEMP VARIANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50F.

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH UPPER LOW FINALLY INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...REMAINING PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN
ZONES/HIR TRRN. BY MONDAY AFTNOON/EARLY EVENING...WK RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL FORCE ANY REMAINING PRECIP OVER NE VT OUT
OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA WILL ONLY LAST MONDAY NGT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MDLS BRING NEXT LOW THRU THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
STAYS MAINLY CONFINED TO N NY WITH --RW FOR CVLY/SW VT. LACK OF
THICK CLD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT WARMING TREND THRU THE AREA
WITH HIGHS TIPPING UP INTO THE 60-65F RANGE. OVERNGT LOWS GET A
BUMP UP AS WELL INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NOW SHOWN
IN GFS SOLNS LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE AND 00Z ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ECMWF DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY. CURRENT FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWS 00Z GFS.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS
NORTHERN PA WL CONT TO ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACRS OUR TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT. OVERALL IFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT SLK/MSS WITH
MAINLY IFR AT BTV/MPV/RUT...AND MVFR AT PBG THRU THIS AFTN/EVENING. VAD
PROFILE SHOWS NORTHERLY FLW DOWN THE CPV...HELPING TO ENHANCE LLVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT BTV WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN ROTATING INTO OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL TAF SITES. OBS
INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AT 400 TO 800 FT. THIS BAND OF RAIN WL SLOWLY LIFT FROM
SE TO NW ACRS OUR TAF SITES THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN. THIS
EVENING...BOTH RAP AND NAM SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BTWN 03Z
AND 05Z...WHICH WL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE FLW AND SOME IMPROVING CIGS
AT BTV/PBG. WL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE
MAINLY IFR CIGS TO CONT AT MPV/RUT/SLK/MPV WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
REDUCING VIS BTWN 1-3SM AT TIMES. BUFKIT VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RH BTWN 13-15Z WITH BETTER
MIXING...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES. SLOWEST SITES
TO CLR WL BE SLK/MPV.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

645 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AS
THEY MOVE INTO WILMINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND HEATING WE WILL END UP SEEING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY 09Z RUC ARE QUITE A BIT
WARMER THAN THE 06Z GFS. INFRARED BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS DECK CONTINUE TO READ 8 DEGREES
CELSIUS...INDICATIVE OF A CLOUD TOP 6500-7000 FT AGL. IF THIS IS
CORRECT WE WILL SEE A VERY SLOW BURNOFF OF CLOUDS TODAY...WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
ROUGHLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO NEAR KINGSTREE. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FEEDING OFF 500-750
J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300
MB JET STREAK OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS THIS JET STREAK MOVES
OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE AND/OR DISSIPATE.

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE
AND POSSIBLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND. IN FACT OUR BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY THESE
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WITH MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z TODAY DO NOT
NECESSARILY AGREE WITH SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES OF THE STRATUS
CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA CURRENTLY. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE OBSERVED ON THE 00Z GSO AND RNK SOUNDINGS (WHICH DO AGREE
WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF CLOUD TOPS) I HAVE LOWERED OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY...NOW RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WILL MOVE
EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTHWARD. ABOVE
THE FRONTAL SURFACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...PRODUCING AN ALMOST WINTER-LIKE
ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME. THERE ARE NO FAVORABLY POSITIONED UPPER
LEVEL JETS TO ASSIST LIFT AND THEREFORE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN
OUR FORECAST (50-60 PERCENT TONIGHT) I HAVE KEPT QPF VALUES RATHER
LOW. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY
MON AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP TRANSITIONING FROM
LIGHT RAIN TO DEEPER ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION FOR MONDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. REGION SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. FLOW ALOFT MAY BE SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT BUT
LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION. GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS AND LIMITED DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POP MON. MON NIGHT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 5 TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY STARTS TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LATE MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE.

SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...MOVING
ACROSS THE TN/KY/OH VALLEYS AND ENDING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE 5H
TROUGH HELPS PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
OVER 2 INCHES TUE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND
WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT HELPS GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK VERY ACTIVE AND ITS
ARRIVAL WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION...THOUGH DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE CLIMO...HELPED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND STALLED FRONT LINGERING ALONG
OR JUST OFF THE COAST WED WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. HIGHEST POP WED WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND...THOUGH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT COULD MOVE ONSHORE AS IT DISSIPATES. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA PUSHES A SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST IT HELPS PULL THE
FRONT STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST FARTHER EAST. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE STALLED FRONT...THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS ONTO POP ALONG THE COAST
THU AND THU NIGHT. INHERITED A SLIGHT CHANCE THU...WILL TRIM POP
INLAND BUT HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE COAST. LACK OF ANY REAL
COLD ADVECTION OR CLOUD COVER RESULTS IN HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. LOW ALSO END UP ABOVE CLIMO...THOUGH ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES AS
DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY INLAND...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI
AND SAT. COMBINATION OF DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING
KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. DRY AIR AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN LOWS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO TO END THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW VISIBILITIES. THE
MYRTLES ARE ON THE FRINGE OF THE IFR AND MAY COME UP FIRST. MOST OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS RETREATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. TIME HEIGHT SHOWS A VERY THIN LAYER OF STRATA CU BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...IT WILL PROBABLY SCATTER. TONIGHT...WARM FRONT
WAVES BACK NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING AFTER 03Z. CEILINGS
WILL ALSO DRIVE BACK DOWN TO IFR WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE SC COAST AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO GEORGETOWN SHORTLY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH AND SHOULD STALL
OUT LATER TODAY JUST SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN. THERE IS NOT A STRONG
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ARE BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE NC COAST AND SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
DAYBREAK...AFFECTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THE FRONT MAY REACH MYRTLE BEACH BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH WINDS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH...WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS AT THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE ONLY 2 FEET CURRENTLY...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS MON
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE
EAST-SOUTHEAST...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN GRADIENT WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MON. FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT IS
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SOLID 15 KT TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT AS
GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION FAILS TO DEVELOP. SEAS START OUT
2 TO 3 FT BUT BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 3 TO 5 FT TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND REDUCTION IN SPEEDS RESULTS
IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE WATERS AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
WED...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE WEST SLIDES NORTHEAST AS THE STALLED FRONT STARTS TO
PUSH EAST. WINDS VEER TO NORTHWEST LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
VEERING TO NORTHEAST THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN SEAS FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD. 2 TO 4 FT WED DECREASING TO 2 TO
3 FT THU.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

634 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE CLIMO...HELPED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS.

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...RUNNING AT 06Z FROM ABOUT 20 MILES S OF ILM...TO 15
MILES NW OF MYR...TO 15 MILES S OF FLO. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST BY 09Z...TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.
THE FOCUS WILL TURN FROM CONVECTION TO LOW CEILINGS: LOW STRATUS IN
THE 300-800 FT AGL RANGE WILL SLIP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THREATEN ALL OF OUR AIRPORTS THIS MORNING.

STRATUS AND ANY REDUCED VSBY IN BR WILL MIX OUT IN THE 13-14Z TIME
FRAME...WITH VFR AND SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWING BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH A
WINTER-LIKE RAIN SHIELD EXPECTED AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...TRA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

709 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
EXTEND A TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
AND A RESULTING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER AND POPS FOR THE
MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION HOW EXTENSIVE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BE VERY CYCLONIC SO
THAT SHOULD ENHANCE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT KIND OF POP IS
NEEDED FOR NE OH AND NW PA AND HOW FAR WEST TO CARRY A THREAT. THE
HRRR MODEL REALLY DECREASES THE THREAT BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE
INSTABILITY SO STRONG THE LAKE AND 500 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
NEAR 43C FROM LAKE COUNTY EAST TODAY...WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE THEM AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BEHIND THE VORT MAX. THE HRRR IS NOW KEEPING
SHOWERS GOING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS GOOD WITH SOME
MUCH INSTABILITY. MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THIS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. AS PER THE HRRR MODEL AND SOME SHOWERS ON LAKE HURON
WILL HAVE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS THE ISLANDS. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS...COOLER EAST BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND WARMER WEST WITH SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WILL MENTION OF THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA
AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE IN
GRIDS AND THE HWO.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BUT WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 13C SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NW PA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
BETTER...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE SOME CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...SO WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.

WATCHING THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM...DIDN`T GO AS
FAST AS THE ECMWF BUT DID SPEED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS A LITTLE
BIT. LIKELY LOOKS GOOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCE
AFTER THAT AS WE GET CLOSE TO THE WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF THUNDER BUT A THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE
MENTIONED. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST IT AT THIS TIME.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AROUND WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS AND WARMER FOR THE LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE
2 MODELS. ECMWF HAS THE FRONT JUST EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY
WHILE THE GFS JUST HAS THE FRONT INTO NW OH. CONTINUED TO USE THE
SLOWER GFS FOR FORECAST. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY.
ECMWF HAS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS ON OTHER HAND HAS LARGE LOW SETTING UP OVER JAMES BAY
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS SWINGING ACROSS EASTERN LAKES. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. LEFT CHANCE POPS SNOWBELT EAST
OF CLEVELAND FOR SATURDAY WITH TROUGH AND IN ADDITION 850 MB TEMPS
DIP TO MINUS 4C SETTING UP POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSRA FROM CLE EAST THIS MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT
WILL BE ANY WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE NORTH BY MID AFTERNOON
AS THE VORT MAX SWINGS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN
SHRA.

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
THEN BECOME NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS. LOCAL SCHEMES SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF CLEVELAND AND
ANYWHERE A DECENT SHOWER DEVELOPS. LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

659 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

WILL MENTION OF THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA
AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE IN
GRIDS AND THE HWO.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AROUND WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS AND WARMER FOR THE LOWS.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
NOW KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS. WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE...THEN
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL ALSO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ANY WORSE THAN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AGAIN MOST SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
CLEVELAND EAST. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE NORTH BY
MID AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX SWINGS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN
SHRA.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

358 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
EXTEND A TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
AND RESULTING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT KIND OF POP IS NEEDED
FOR NE OH AND NW PA AND HOW FAR WEST TO CARRY A THREAT. THE HRRR
MODEL REALLY DECREASES THE THREAT BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE INSTABILITY
SO STRONG THE LAKE AND 500 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 43C FROM
LAKE COUNTY EAST TODAY...WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE THEM AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS
BEHIND THE VORT MAX. THE HRRR IS NOW KEEPING SHOWERS GOING LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS GOOD WITH SOME MUCH INSTABILITY. MOST MODELS
AGREE WITH THIS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. AS PER THE HRRR MODEL AND
SOME SHOWERS ON LAKE HURON WILL HAVE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AS FAR
WEST AS THE ISLANDS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
HIGHS...COOLER EAST BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND WARMER
WEST WITH SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL MENTION OF THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA
AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE IN
GRIDS AND THE HWO.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AROUND WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS AND WARMER FOR THE LOWS.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
NOW KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS. WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE...THEN
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL ALSO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ANY WORSE THAN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AGAIN MOST SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
CLEVELAND EAST. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE NORTH BY
MID AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX SWINGS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN
SHRA.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

513 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION ON
MONDAY. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NMRS INSTABILITY SHOWERS NOW EVIDENT ON RADAR ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY /ALBEIT MODEST/ UNDER H5-H7
COLD POOL OF -15C. THIS IS RESULTING IN MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7 C/KM -- A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ROBUST...LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE LATEST HRRR HAD DONE QUITE WELL WITH THE
SHOWER PLACEMENT THUS FAR...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG I-80 AND OVR THE LAURELS/S-CENTRAL MTNS. THE
BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVR THE S-CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD
REACH THE LWR SUSQ VLY METRO AREAS AROUND 20Z.

BKN-OVC CUMULUS/STRATOCU SHOULD START TO FIZZLE OUT THIS EVE WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT. BY THE SAME TOKEN...EXPECT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA TO QUICKLY FADE AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SHORTLY AFT 00Z. LLVL MSTR MAY
GET TRAPPED BLW INVERSION AND RESULT IN LOW STRATUS/FOG INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...ESP ACRS THE ALLEGHENIES GIVEN WEAK WNW UPSLOPE.
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FG LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FINAL AFTN UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OVR THE
WRN MTNS WHERE THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL
BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR
MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN
SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z
TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO
SOUTH.

MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE SFC WAVE INTO TN/KY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT ROBUST NWD MSTR
FLUX INTO THE AREA MON NGT...WITH PWATS SURGING TO +2-3SD BY 12Z
TUE. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS PERHAPS A DUEL MSTR FEED FM
THE GOMEX AND ATM RIVER EMANATING FM THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER
SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SOURCE OF HI PWATS INTO TUES. THE 12Z
MODELS STILL DISPLAY SOME DETAIL DIFFS WITH THIS SYS AND THEREFORE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE DY2 FINALS.
HOWEVER WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS/09Z SREF...STILL FEEL THAT
HIGHER POPS ARE JUSTIFIED /ESPECIALLY FROM 06-12Z TUES/ GIVEN THE
STG WAA/ISENT LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY TUES...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI. SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA LATER
TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING
STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. QPF ON
TUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25 ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSS.

SOAKING RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT RIDES OVER THE SFC LOW...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES AROUND
BASE OF TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO OHIO VALLEY WED. MODELS STILL
HINTING AT WEAK SECONDARY SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SE...WHICH
MAY PEEL POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH QPFS AWAY FROM PA RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND A MINIMAL FLOOD THREAT AT
THIS TIME.

AFTER THE SFC LOW/FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST - MAINLY IN THE WEST AS DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK IN WITH
RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

THU AND FRI WILL SEE SFC RIDGING AND W/SW UPPER FLOW...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIVERGING FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE GEFS/GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING ALBEIT FADING
FRONT LATER FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WANTING TO
SHEAR OUT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. THE ECMWF /UNUSUALLY/
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...HOLDING ITS UPPER ENERGY BACK
RESULTING IN A BROAD WSW FLOW EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING OVER THE GR
LAKES AND NERN US. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL DEVELOPING A SLOW
MOVING WAVY ANA-FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TOUGH TO EVEN LEAN FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE...SO HAD TO KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS SEVERAL
PERIODS...THOUGH PAINTED HIGHEST POPS ON SAT. FOR
TEMPS...GRADUALLY OOZED COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FROM
SAT INTO MON.

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN SCT-BKN CU FIELD
ACRS CENTRAL PA TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN...WITH VFR CLOUD BASES
BTWN 5-7KFT AGL. AS EXPECTED...SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHRA...AND A FEW TSRA...NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE IN ASSOC
WITH AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...CAN/T RULE OUT A
LOCALIZED...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION FROM ONE OF THESE SHOWERS THRU
ABOUT 00Z.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. SFC HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE UPPER OH VLY OVERNIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR
MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND RESULT IN LOW CIGS/FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE WRN MTNS GIVEN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
ADDED A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS BTWN 09-13Z ACRS THE WRN AND
CENTRAL AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM LOW CIGS/FOG PSBL ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL MTNS...BCMG VFR.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

226 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NMRS INSTABILITY SHOWERS NOW EVIDENT ON RADAR ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY /ALBEIT MODEST/ UNDER H5-H7
COLD POOL OF -15C. THIS IS RESULTING IN MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7 C/KM -- A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ROBUST...LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE LATEST HRRR HAD DONE QUITE WELL WITH THE
SHOWER PLACEMENT THUS FAR...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG I-80 AND OVR THE LAURELS/S-CENTRAL MTNS. THE
BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVR THE S-CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD
REACH THE LWR SUSQ VLY METRO AREAS AROUND 20Z.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL
BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR
MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN
SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z
TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN QUICKLY RELOADS INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THE DETAILS DIFFER BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW
TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE CENTRAL GR LAKES...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
EVENTUALLY SWINGING THRU THE REGION SOME TIME TUES NIGHT OR WED.
THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES.

03Z SREF STILL SHOWS AS MUCH AS A 30-50 PROB OF 24 HOUR RAINFALLS
OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER WEST-CENTRAL PA...MAINLY FROM TUESDAY INTO
WED. THIS ISN`T MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 21Z RUN. THE GEFS IS NOT
NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AND HAS SHIFTED ITS LOWER PROBABILITY OF ONE
INCH RAINS MAINLY OFF TO OUR SE...WHICH MATCHES BETTER TO WHERE
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL
SECONDARY WAVE TO FORM. AT THIS STAGE THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
MUDDY THE DETAILS...BUT WHAT LOOKS ALMOST ASSURED IS THAT WE WILL
SEE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND A MINIMAL FLOOD
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE SFC LOW/FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT KEEPING THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING FROM THE WEST
TO DRY OUT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

THE GEFS/GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING ALBEIT FADING
FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WANTING TO SHEAR
OUT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT IS AN
OUTLIER...HANGING MORE UPPER ENERGY BACK ITO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A BROAD WSW FLOW EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING
OVER THE GR LAKES AND NERN US. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL
DEVELOPING A SLOW MOVING WAVY ANA-FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON TIMING...IT COULD EITHER BE MILD AND
DRY...OR CHILLY AND RAINY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT TOUCH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHERE WE NOW HAVE SMALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...WHICH WOULD BETTER FIT A WASHING FRONTAL
PASSAGE CONCEPTUAL MODEL.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD ENJOY
SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH STARTING ABOUT WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
30/18Z...COLD AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN BKN
CU/SC FIELD ACRS CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THIS AFTN...WITH LOW-END
VFR CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-6KFT AGL. AS EXPECTED...SCT TO NMRS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTING OVR PA/NY. OCNL CG
LTG IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED IN SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST CELLS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A LCL TSRA IMPACT THRU EARLY EVE. HOWEVER CVRG/CONFIDENCE
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT
00Z. SFC HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER OH
VLY OVERNIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER
INVERSION AND RESULT IN LOW CIGS/FOG OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE WRN
MTNS GIVEN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS
BTWN 09-13Z ACRS THE WRN AND CENTRAL AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM LOW CIGS/FOG PSBL ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL MTNS...BCMG VFR.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1112 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION ON MONDAY. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ON THE SCOPE AT OF
15Z...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SW PA.
STILL EXPECTING NMRS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY
AFTN WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY /ALBEIT MODEST/...UNDER H5-H7
COLD POOL OF -15C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
C/KM WHICH IS A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS. SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ROBUST...LOW- TOPPED CONVECTIVE
CELLS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY INVOF I-80/N-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE HIGHEST POPS HAVE PAINTED
IN THE GRIDS. ANY PEAKS OF SUN THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY
SELF-DESTRUCT CUMULUS/STRATOCU WITH BKN SKIES ANTICIPATED ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
50S AND 60S...WHICH WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
AREAS. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
UPPER OH VLY. SOME LLVL MSTR MAY GET TRAPPED BLW INVERSION AND
RESULT IN LOW STRATUS/FOG INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESP ACRS THE
ALLEGHENIES GIVEN WEAK WNW UPSLOPE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL
BISECT THE STATE IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE
OF LOW PRES OVR MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SRN SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO
THE TN VLY BY 00Z TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S NORTH TO SOUTH.

MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE SFC WAVE INTO TN/KY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT ROBUST NWD MSTR
FLUX INTO THE AREA MON NGT...WITH PWATS SURGING TO +2-3SD BY 12Z
TUE. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS PERHAPS A DUEL/INC MSTR FEED
FM THE GOMEX AND ATM RIVER EMANATING FM THE BAHAMAS. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE SYS AND WILL REFINE DY2 FCST
BASED ON THE LATER ARRIVING 30/12Z GUID. FOR NOW...FELT THAT AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE STG WAA/ISENT LIFT AND
MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD ENJOY
SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH STARTING ABOUT WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
30/15Z...COLD AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN BKN
CU/SC FIELD ACRS CENTRAL PA TERMINALS BY THE EARLY AFTN. CLOUDS
BASES WILL BE IN THE LOW END VFR RANGE BTWN 3.5-6KFT AGL. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTING
OVR PA/NY THIS AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLD TSRA BUT WILL
CVRG/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 00Z.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER OH VLY
OVERNIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION
AND RESULT IN LOW CIGS/FOG OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE WRN MTNS GIVEN
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W MTNS...BCMG VFR.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY...ESP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

1259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KGUY AND KDHT FROM
30/21Z - 01/01Z. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE...ONLY UTILIZED VCSH
AT KAMA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

UNLESS A TAF SITE SEES SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...FOG IS
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT
10-12KTS. GUSTS TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
MONDAY...BUT ELECTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANOTHER LINE AT THE VERY END OF
THE TAF FOR THIS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE DENSE FOG WORDING FROM ZONES AND INCREASE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHRTWV IN NRLY FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH A SFC
TROUGH TO PROMOTE SCT STORMS AFTER 19-20Z. LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS
1500-2000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER
MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY WEAK BULK SHEAR
OF 25-30KTS COULD PROMOTE MINIMAL STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT LACKING
LOW LVL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE AND AN ISOLATED 60 MPH DOWNDRAFT COULD BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS...BUT EXPECT MOST CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
TO REMAIN JUST UNDER SVR LIMITS.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z KAMA TAF...THINK THE THREAT OF FG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS IS MOSTLY OVER...THOUGH COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LIGHT SW WINDS HAVE HELPED
SCOUR OUT THE FG AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TSRA BETWEEN 18 AND 06Z...BUT THIS LOOKS
VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN LACK OF A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT...AND
UNFAVORABLE MEAN FLOW TO BRING TSRA FROM ROCKIES THIS FAR E. GFS LAMP
SHOWS BR AND LOW CEILINGS REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT THINK THIS IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
PLUS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW SATURATION.

FOR THE 12Z KDHT AND KGUY TAFS...LOW CEILINGS AND FG SHOULD
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KDHT...FOR THE NEXT
3 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH INCREASED MIXING IN A TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE...20 TO 30 PERCENT...OF TSRA BETWEEN
18 AND 06Z. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AS THE MEAN
FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NORTHERLY...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE FOR TSRA THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO
PROPAGATING THIS FAR E. GFS LAMP SHOWS BR AND LOW CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING AFTER 06Z...BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALL OVER THE PAST DAY. IN ADDITION...THE TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW SATURATION DURING THIS TIME.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO APPROACH THE PANHANDLES
BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP AND POPS
THIS MORNING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DENSE IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
AROUND 15Z TO 16Z TODAY BEFORE LIFTING. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY UNTIL EXPIRATION. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 09Z TO 15Z
MONDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED. WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING DOWN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES MONDAY AND
THEN DRIER CONDITION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

09/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1150 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.UPDATE...

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

09/08

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA...UPPER
LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND...AND RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. THIS IS DUE TO PLENTIFUL DRY AIR SEEN ON 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM ABR...MPX AND GRB...WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C
OR MORE EXISTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHARP 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES...NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDING DATA OF
15C AT INL AND MPX COMPARED TO 8C AT GRB. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
SIMILAR SHARP GRADIENT IN CURRENT TEMPERATURES....FROM THE LOWER 80S
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 60S IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO NORTH DAKOTA IS
PROGGED TO SPLIT APART INTO TWO BY THE 30.12Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND
ECMWF...WITH PART OF IT HEADING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO CREATES
SOME ISSUES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR...SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING GETS SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. PLUS THE AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY. ALL FOUR MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST. THE 30.00Z ECMWF
AND 30.12Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEP MOST OF THE TROUGH
TOGETHER....DROPPING IT INTO MN AND IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...STRONGER FORCING EXISTS AND A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE 30.12Z
GUIDANCE AND PULLED OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTIRELY. BOTH
SCENARIOS STILL HAVE THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SLIDE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SIMILAR TIMING...SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. AS SUCH...THERE COULD BE SOME
SLIGHT COOLING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...
850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C AT 18Z MONDAY COMBINED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVER SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE ANY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEY SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN WARMER LOWS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GOING PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE...WITH THE TYPICAL
WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO A LONGER
PERIOD OF DECOUPLED WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE POSSIBLY SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DROP SOUTH INTO MONTANA. AGAIN WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION FALLS
MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDS ON HOW SPLIT APART THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS...
WITH THE 30.00Z ECMWF DEPICTING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
COMPARED TO THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE DRY MAJORITY AS WELL AS PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST.
STILL...AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN SEASONABLE MONDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
THE CLOUDS AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO 6-8C BY 12Z TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE
40S. WITH SUN BACK OUT FOR TUESDAY AND THE GIVEN 850MB TEMPS...HIGHS
REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROUGHING DROPPING
INTO MONTANA ON TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEAST...
INTO WYOMING AND PERHAPS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL BY 00Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH DIGS...IT HELPS TO KICK OUT THE STALLED UPPER LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A LOT OF RETROGRESSION THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH IS NOW SLATED TO
LIFT UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. A DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY THE
30.12Z NAM TO PERHAPS CLIP PORTIONS OF GRANT AND ADAMS COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS A WESTERN OUTLIER...WITH ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEPING THE BAND TRACKING NOT MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE CHICAGO
AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
FOLLOW THE MAJORITY SHOWING UPPER RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND IF IT RAINS MONDAY NIGHT...COULD BE A CONCERN FOR VALLEY
FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...SINCE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY MILD FOR EARLY
OCTOBER WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 40S AND 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ON
WEDNESDAY BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

IN THE MEAN...THE 30.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BIG CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THERE SHOULD BE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FALL WILL
REALLY BE FELT THIS WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO BELOW -2C.
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES EXIST ON HOW WE GET TO THE WEEKEND...MOSTLY
RELATED TO THAT POTENT TROUGH THE DIGS INTO WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY.
THE 30.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ALL HAVE THE POTENT TROUGH TURNING
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOW FAR NORTHWEST THIS TURN TO
NEGATIVE TILT OCCURS AND TIMING IS AT ODDS AMONGST THE MODELS...WITH
THE 30.00Z ECMWF/30.12Z CANADIAN FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN THE
30.12Z GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
AND COLD AIR TIMING. IN THE CASE OF THE 30.00Z ECMWF/30.12Z
CANADIAN...THEY ARE MUCH LIGHTER ON PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE
30.12Z GFS. NEW 30.12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH 20 CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
30-50 ON THURSDAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 30.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS. MUCH COOLER DAY ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY
TOO AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...SENDING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 0-4C BY
00Z FRIDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TOO BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS PANS OUT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE 30.00Z/30.12Z ECMWF
SHOW SOME FRONTOGENESIS-TYPE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS TO
INDIANA. THE 30.12Z GFS/CANADIAN HAVE THIS BOUNDARY MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD
PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF...NEED TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. ALL
MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THUS DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
1215 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL KEEP A DRY
AIRMASS AND GOOD VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCT-BKN
CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN 8K TO 12K
MID CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT/MON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE WDLY SCT -SHRA
AROUND THE AREA LATER MON MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND THE DRIER SFC-8K FT AIRMASS BELOW THE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL LIFT...LEFT VCSH OUT OF THE LATE PORTIONS OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW. PASSAGE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS FROM SOUTH AHEAD
OF IT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT...AROUND 14Z MON AT KRST AND AROUND 18Z
MON AT KLSE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1245 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FALLING PREDOMINATELY FROM A MID
DECK CROSSING PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY LATE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING MUCH
PROGRESS NORTHEAST YET...AS THE 0000 UTC OKX SOUNDING SHOWED A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE DRY LAYER WILL FILL IN
AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE (WELL TO THE
WEST) WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING AND
REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. CHC POPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE TO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE BY AFTERNOON. QPF OF .10 TO .25
INCHES EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH...LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SO WE ARE INDICATING SOME UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E OR SE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO FEATURE A
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, A HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO UP TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN
WAVE. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE UP OVER QUEBEC AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO PULL A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DURING THEN PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL AND END A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 0800 UTC. BASED ON THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND VISIBILITY VALUES UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY AS EARLY AS 0900
UTC...BASED ON THE CEILINGS UPSTREAM ACROSS MARYLAND AND VIRGINA.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 1200 UTC TUESDAY.

CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 1100 AND
1400 UTC. AFTER CEILINGS SHOULD VARY FROM 1200 TO 2000 FEET FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A
KRDG-KPHL-KMJX LINE AFTER 1800 UTC...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE YET TO INCLUDE IN THE NEW FORECAST.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 2300 UTC AND 0300 UTC WEDNESDAY.
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIFR BETWEEN 0400 UTC AND 0600
UTC WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...THE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A
KRDG-KPHL-KMJX LINE...BUT IT IS TOO FAR AWAY TO CARRY IN THE
FORECAST YET. WINDS SHOULD SLOW VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND REMAIN
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER,
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HAYES
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

317 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUE TO SIT IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
JUST EAST OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE COOLED DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
NEAR 32F. I KEPT PATCHY FROST MENTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AFTER SUNRISE WITH SW
FLOW AND GOOD WAA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.

WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW FAVORING FROPA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN AT LEAST THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WED. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WED DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING AND AFTERNOON
MIXING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH LATEST NAM SUPPORTING POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
SINCE THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE WORST RUN-RUN CONTINUITY I DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN IT SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BETTER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH I DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL WED NIGHT...WITH MOST
GUIDANCE TRENDING NORTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. I KEPT AN AREA OF CHANCE
POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE WED NIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE WITH HIGHS ON THU IN THE 50S/LOW 60S.
IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SO I TEMPERED THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NOW...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
STILL SEE MID 30S. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER WE COULD MUCH COOLER
WITH OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES COOLED
OFF THIS PAST NIGHT.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FRI-SUN AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD WHERE A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEND TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CENTERED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL /250 MB/ JET SUPPORT AIDING IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. GIVEN FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -2C
FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX IF THAT PANS
OUT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S
WHICH WILL BE 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION
OF COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -2 TO +2C...AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGING...THERE IS A GOOD
SHOT AT A WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EARLY
ON WILL WAY TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR/DLF
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

547 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY AND A MAINLY ZONAL
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO TO MN AND THE CNTRL PLAINS WAS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH
DRIER AIR...PER 00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WRN CWA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
REMAINED OVER THE EAST WITH LINGERING CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW.

MDLS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING AS DRY ACYC FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE EAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAY...READINGS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVER SEASONAL AVERAGES...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S...ARE EXPECTED GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 4C TO 6C
RANGE. AS THE RIDGE SETTLES TO THE SOUTHEAST...WEAK SRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

WED LOOKS OVERALL PRETTY QUIET OVER THE CWA...WITH SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND WED NIGHT AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE CWA.

INTERESTING WEATHER STARTS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MODELS SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA. THE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FROM AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NRN PLAINS THU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AS MODEL
CONTINUITY IS EVEN WORSE...AND MODEL AGREEMENT LOWER...THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. IF THERE IS A TREND TO PICK UP ON OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS IT IS A WEAKENING ONE. THE GFS SHOWS THIS MORE THAN OTHER
MODELS...ONLY DEEPENING THE SFC LOW FROM 1012MB TO 1007MB AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA. NOT ONLY IS INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IN QUESTION...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAIN. MODELS VARY FROM MOVING THE LOW TO THE N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...TO MOVING IT ALONG THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. TRACK
VARIABILITY WILL PLAY ONE OF THE LARGEST ROLES IN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...SINCE THE MOST PRECIP WILL BE IN THE COMMA SECTION OF THE
SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME GALES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW GIVEN A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR MOVING IN.

MODELS AGREE A LITTLE BETTER ON DETAILS RELATED TO THE COLD AIR
MOVING IN. BY 12Z FRI...850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND -3C TO -5C
WITH W TO NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
BRINGING IN A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH...SO THE GFS BRINGS THE EVEN
COLDER AIR IN FASTER. BY 00Z SAT THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO
-8C OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL AROUND 12Z
SUN FOR THE SAME TEMPS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES...850MB TEMPS WARM AND SFC RIDGING PUSHES
INTO THE CWA...WHETHER THAT BE LATE SAT OR MID DAY SUN. BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW LOOK TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER
MI...PARTICULARLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE THE GFS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WOULD
BE MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND WOULD NOT STICK AROUND TOO
LONG.

FOR SUN AND MON...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS SW-W LOW LEVEL FLOW
BRINGS WARMER AIR OVERHEAD. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT SO JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

ALTHOUGH SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MIGHT IMPACT IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THERE AND AT CMX THIS FCST PERIOD
AS HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS. AT SAW...
THE UPSLOPE N FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE HI PRES RDG WL BRING MVFR CIGS
THRU SUNRISE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG BREAKS UP THIS LO CLD AND
BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW THIS
MRNG...BUT UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO
MAKE THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING DIMINISHING
WINDS. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRINGS WEST GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW BUT HIGHER END GALES TO 45 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHWEST BY NOON AND
THEN SOUTHERLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012/

UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 02Z INDICATES A ~1020MB HIGH NEAR
KTIF AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...WITH WIND INTENSITY
CONTINUING TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP SHOP
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL PRESENT A COOL AIRMASS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMING VERY LIGHT
AND SKIES REMAINING CLEAR...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE OUT
VERY EFFICIENTLY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
DROP-OFFS OF 35-40 DEGREES. WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEM REASONABLE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT WARMER LOWS FOR LOCATIONS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LOWS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE ALSO SUGGESTED MY MANY SETS OF
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUALLY COOLER NAM/MET
GUIDANCE...WHICH PLUMMETS OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 30 ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. SEEING AS THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WILL PLAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE...BUT STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 33 THROUGH RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
CWA...AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR KODX WHICH
ALWAYS SEEMS TO TANK IN SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS. ALTHOUGH NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS CONCEIVABLE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD NEAR
30 AS NAM/MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT IT IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN AND MOSTLY
RELEGATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIVER VALLEYS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. DID CONTEMPLATE GOING WITH A FROST
ADVISORY TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH THE LATEST UPDATE CALLS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TO FALL TO 33 OR 34 DEGREES...IT IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOVER CLOSER TO 35 OR 36 DEGREES...THUS
KEEPING FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PATCHY SIDE AND AGAIN...MOSTLY
RELEGATED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PERHAPS POINTS FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SO...NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT...BUT DID FRESHEN
UP THE FROST WORDING IN THE HWO. ONLY REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WERE TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FROST IN
THE GRIDS...MORE OR LESS COSMETIC CHANGES TO BETTER MATCH WHERE
THE CURRENT OBS ARE HEADING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

555 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBUF RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN NY AS OF 4AM. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AS DISPLAYED
ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL AND MESOANALYSIS. ALL 00Z MODELS ARE AT
LEAST 3 HOURS TOO SLOW WITH PROGRESSION OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE A HAND EDIT TRENDING TOWARD GUIDANCE
LATER THIS MORNING. FEEL THAT DESPITE THE SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIP
THAT ALL AREAS SHOULD PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS UPWARDS TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THOSE AREAS
DRY BUT RADAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PROVE OTHERWISE.

MILD TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE RUNNING IN THE 50S AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.

LATER TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD TREK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SPREADING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT/LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE WARM FRONT.
THIS KEEPS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN FINGER
LAKES INTO CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS...WITH THE SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN HELPING
TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE DELMARVA. STILL EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A
BRIEF DRY BUT CLOUDY PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
NIGHT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OVER INDIANA AS
IT GETS CAUGHT BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH. ACROSS NEW YORK THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. KEPT
CHANCE POPS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MILD TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MANY
SPOTS WILL NOT SEE LOWS DROP BELOW 60 WITH OTHER SPOTS SEEING UPPER
50S FOR LOWS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND WINDS LIGHT. QPF THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TAPERING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
KIAG TO KART.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
A STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH POSITION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BECOMING MORE REMINISCENT OF SUMMER. THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT APPARENT BESIDES A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT.

BY AFTERNOON EXPECT WESTERN NY TO DRY OUT AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODEST SBCAPE OF 500-800
J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. WHAT
DOES FORM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION LATER IN THE DAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS 850MB
TEMPS UP TO AROUND +14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER THIS WILL STILL
SUPPORT UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S GIVING A SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR.

WEDNESDAY EVENING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A NARROW SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER.

ON THURSDAY THE OHIO VALLEY CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM KICKER
SHORTWAVE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LOSE DEFINITION. THE WEAKENING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
TO PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE...WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE
WHERE STRONGER ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY PUSHING 80 AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
NY.

THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER NARROW RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH
CLEARING SKIES. AGAIN THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME STRONGLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED
FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL US TO THE APPALACHIANS...
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST BY DAY 6-7. UPSTREAM A STRONG
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN PUSH EAST
TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY DAY 7. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY AN INITIAL MID LEVEL LOW WILL
SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE AND REACH JAMES BAY BY LATE
IN THE DAY. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
LOWER LAKES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA...SO SHOWERS MAY COME
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND VERY CHILLY AIR WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE HANDLING OF A
POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVE. LATEST 00Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST FRONTAL
WAVE RUNNING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING A WIDESPREAD CHILLY RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF
ALSO HAS A FRONTAL WAVE...JUST A LITTLE WEAKER AND ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER. IT ALSO TRIES TO DEVELOP A SECOND FRONTAL WAVE ON SUNDAY AS
IT PHASES WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...IT WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE MODEL GUIDANCE SETTLES DOWN AND
CONVERGES ON A COMMON SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY USE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS.

WHAT IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO WARM IF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS
REALIZED. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. IF THE
HIGH DOES INDEED SETTLE OVERHEAD...WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS MAY BE ON THE WAY.

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND
EAST THOUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT RA IS BEING REPORTED AT KBUF AND KIAG
AT 08Z AND WILL LIKELY REACH KROC BY 09/10Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...MAINLY
VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAINS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY AND
USHERS IN THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER WHICH MAY BRING BACK SCA CONDITIONS.

.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR SEPTEMBER HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH
A NARRATIVE DISCUSSION AT THE BOTTOM FOR BUF AND ROC. YOU CAN
FIND THE FULL WRITE-UPS AND CLIMATE INFO IN BUFCLMBUF AND
BUFCLMROC...OR ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE SECTION.

IN BRIEF SUMMARY...THE HEAT THAT WAS SO COMMON THIS SUMMER LASTED
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS. THE PATTERN FINALLY BROKE
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH...WITH MANY BELOW AVERAGE DAYS
THEREAFTER. PRECIPITATION WAS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH
THANKS TO SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS...AND THIS WAS WELCOME
RAIN THAT BEGAN TO PUT A DENT IN THE DROUGHT WHICH HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT FOR MOST OF THE SPRING AND SUMMER.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

415 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND
EAST THOUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT RA IS BEING REPORTED AT KBUF AND KIAG
AT 08Z AND WILL LIKELY REACH KROC BY 09/10Z.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

546 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PUSH A COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW UP INTO THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
PUMPS UP ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST. SLUG OF RAIN ON THE RADAR
MOSAIC IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BUT STILL
FAIRLY WELL BY THE NEWEST/06Z NAM. NO LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA OF
RAIN...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY ON 40-45KT 8H-7H WINDS. CLOUDS WILL WORK AGAINST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION T IN THE FCST FOR THE
DAY. THE WIND PROFILE FOR THE DAY FEATURES A SLOWLY TURNING
HODOGRAPH AND 70+KT SW STORM TOP WINDS. AS THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT
IS SPIRALED INTO THE WRN MTS LATER TODAY...A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THREATS IN THE HWO FOR NOW...AS
CLOUD COVER IS GOING TO BE THICK FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WILL KEEP
MAXES NEAR OR EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M60S-L70S.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
QPF OF AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH IS STILL THE BEST CALL...AS VERY
FEW 03Z SREF MEMBERS PLACE AN INCH OR MORE INTO OUR CWA. BUT THE
PWATS ARE NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF UPSTREAM.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DYNAMICS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING...AND THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME
MORE-SHOWERY AND COVERAGE BECOME SPARSE. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SERLY
FLOW TUES NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THRU THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
THEN HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RISING ABOUT 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMALS ON
WED AFTN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. 8H TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS ON WED COULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO GET 10-15F ABOVE
NORMAL ON WED -- IF THE CLOUDS AND LEFT OVER SHOWERS GET OUT OF
THE WAY. THE SFC WINDS VEER FROM SE TO SW DURING THE DAY...WHICH
IS USUALLY A GOOD DIRECTION FOR DOWNSLOPE AND THEREFORE A BETTER
CHANCE AT CLEARING UP AT LEAST THE SERN COS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCES
======================================
THE OCT 01/12Z OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN...WHICH LEADS TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DURING THE PERIOD. MS VLY TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY/ERN GREAT LAKES THUR.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL
SHIFT NEWD ACRS THE NRN MID-ATLC STATES WED BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE ON THURS.

ERN PAC REX BLOCK WILL MIGRATE EWD TWD THE WEST COAST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS PERSISTING OVR
SERN ALASKA/NW BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND N-CENTRAL STATES
BEFORE EXPANDING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ERN CONUS. IN TERMS OF
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE LATEST GFS/GEFS SHOW SLIGHTLY
GREATER AMPLITUDE/DIGGING WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE
EC/ECENS AND CMC/CMCE. HPC WEIGHTED THE GFS HIGHER IN THEIR FINAL
BLEND FOR SFC PRESSURES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY APPROACH OF
SEVERAL PAC SYSTEMS FORMERLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN AS TYPHOONS. THIS
SOLUTION RESULTS IN A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH IS A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND EC/CMC.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
===========================

MODEL DATA SHOWS SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY WED NGT...AS SFC
OCCLD FNT SHIFTS NEWD AND UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE
SW. MUCH ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S OVR THE MTNS AND NR 80F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. SFC RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON THURS. COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
ACRS THE UPPER GRT LKS WILL SEND A MSTR-STARVED COLD FRONT SEWD
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT LGT SHOWERS.
MODELS DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND CONCERNING A FRONTAL WAVE EJECTING
EWD FM THE SRN ROCKIES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT SHORTER RANGES. CONSENSUS MODEL DATA DOES SUPPORT
COOLING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES WITHIN THE 500MB HEIGHT AND 850MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.
THIS MIGHT LEAD TO THE FIRST SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON OVR THE NW
MTNS...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WENT DOWNHILL FAST.

NOW A LARGE AREA OF STEADY RAIN MOVING IN.

09Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD LOWERING CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS CENTRAL
PA WILL REMAIN IN MOIST...SERLY FLOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT. OCNL
-RA/DZ MAY TAPER OFF BY AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS... INCLUDING BFD/UNV/AOO/JST.

OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE EAST.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED EARLY...THEN A CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE...MAINLY NW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

510 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
===========================

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO THE SE AND SW.
MOST SITES STILL VFR. OVERALL...LESS ON RADAR THAN WHAT I EXPECTED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD
LOWERING CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE EVENING
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME -SHRA ALREADY BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT LOW LVLS SHOULD
INITIALLY KEEP CLOUD BASES/VSBYS IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

UPSTREAM OBS AND MDL DATA SUGGEST A RAPID DETERIORATION IN FLYING
CONDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHERE
MOISTENING SERLY FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CIGS IN THIS
AREA...INCLUDING JST...AOO...UNV AND BFD...WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR
BTWN 07Z-10Z. THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS FURTHER EAST...
INCLUDING IPT/MDT/LNS...MAY ONLY FALL TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TUE...AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
MOIST...SERLY FLOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT. OCNL -RA/DZ MAY TAPER OFF
BY AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF
IFR CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...
INCLUDING BFD/UNV/AOO/JST.

OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE EAST.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

507 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 12 KT AFTER
SUNRISE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KGLD AS THE LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO BE
AROUND 10KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR/DLF
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

744 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

WED LOOKS OVERALL PRETTY QUIET OVER THE CWA...WITH SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND WED NIGHT AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE CWA.

FOR SUN AND MON...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS SW-W LOW LEVEL FLOW
BRINGS WARMER AIR OVERHEAD. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT SO JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

ALTHOUGH SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MIGHT IMPACT IWD EARLY THIS MORNING...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THERE AND AT CMX THIS FCST PERIOD
AS HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS. AT SAW...
THE UPSLOPE N FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE HI PRES RDG WL BRING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE BREAKS UP
THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

709 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE NOSE OF
A 30-35KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AS DISPLAYED ON THE 10Z RAP MODEL AND
MESOANALYSIS. BOTH 00Z AND 06Z MODELS RUNS ARE TOO SLOW WITH MOVING
THIS FIRST SHOW OF RAIN ACROSS NEW YORK THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIP ALL PARTS OF WESTERN NY SHOULD PICK UP A
FEW HUNDREDTHS UPWARDS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS MORNING. EVEN
LOCATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO COULD MEASURE BEFORE NOON.

MILD TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO START TUESDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE DELMARVA. STILL EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A
BRIEF DRY BUT CLOUDY PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
NIGHT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OVER INDIANA AS
IT GETS CAUGHT BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH. ACROSS NEW YORK THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCE
POPS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MILD TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MANY SPOTS
WILL NOT SEE LOWS DROP BELOW 60 WITH OTHER SPOTS SEEING UPPER 50S
FOR LOWS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND WINDS LIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TAPERING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM KIAG TO
KART.

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOME LOWER CIGS
OBSERVED IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THOUGH THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN LOWERING VFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. ALONG
WITH THIS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIALLY SOME IFR CIGS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH LOW END MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND ADJUST TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. ALSO SOME LLWS
POSSIBLE AT KJHW AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW 30-35KT LLJ SHIFTING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THIS JET IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CURRENT SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAINS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LAKES. WAVES AVERAGING LESS THAN 2 FT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY AND USHERS IN THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS AND A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER WHICH MAY BRING BACK SCA
CONDITIONS.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

743 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
===========================

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF TODAY INTO WED MORNING.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD LOWERING CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS CENTRAL
PA WILL REMAIN IN MOIST...SERLY FLOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT. OCNL
-RA/DZ MAY TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY EARLY.
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE EAST.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED EARLY...THEN A CHC OF SHOWERS LATE...
MAINLY NW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1152 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

BREEZY WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
10 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 12Z AS SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY TOMORROW EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE PREVAILING PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR/DLF
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

149 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

WED LOOKS OVERALL PRETTY QUIET OVER THE CWA...WITH SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND WED NIGHT AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE CWA.

FOR SUN AND MON...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS SW-W LOW LEVEL FLOW
BRINGS WARMER AIR OVERHEAD. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT SO JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

MVFR CIGS AT KSAW SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP ON VIS SATELLITE SO
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 19Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AT SFC AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION AT KSAW
LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AT KSAW BTWN 09-14Z.
OTHERWISE...SRLY GRAD WIND SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG OVER WRN
SITES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

329 PM MDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

BIG CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER COMING TOMORROW.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY IN WEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S MPH. WITH
ENHANCED PREFRONTAL MIXING TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...THUS HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S MOST
PLACES. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO CLIMB AFTER
SUNSET.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST ALONG
THE BC/ALBERTA BORDER AND PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS IS OUR WEATHER
MAKER FOR TOMORROW. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED 500MB
CIRCULATION OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
GFS OR NAM AT THIS POINT...SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. STRONG ASCENT
SET TO ARRIVE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...COLD FRONT
ITSELF IS NEARING THE CANADA/MT BORDER NOW...AND IT WILL PASS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SFC TROF IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...BUT OTHERWISE PCPN WILL
BE POST FRONTAL BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW. HAVE ADJUSTED TONIGHTS
POPS TO SHOW LOWER CHANCES ESPECIALLY WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS.

PASSAGE OF WAVE TOMORROW WILL GIVE US OUR GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN
IN QUITE SOME TIME...BUT THERE ARE ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT. PER
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...BEST CHANCES/HIGHEST PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ALONG OUR NORTH SLOPES AND ACROSS OUR EAST...
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNOWIES/BELTS...BUT
HIGH POPS WARRANTED EVERYWHERE. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH...OUR PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE ENHANCED PER LONGER
DURATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW/ASCENT...BUT ALL MODELS SHOW IT
OPENING UP WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE HERE. OTHER
ISSUE IS TEMPERATURE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...POST FRONTAL DEWPTS
ACROSS ALBERTA ARE LARGELY IN THE 30S...SUGGESTING WET BULB TEMPS
WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THIS INCLUDES BILLINGS...WHICH WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
30S EXPECTED MAY SEE ONLY RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...THE NORTH SLOPES
OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS...INCLUDING RED LODGE...AND THE
HIGHER RIDGES SUCH AS THE WOLF MTNS AND LAME DEER DIVIDE...MAY SEE
SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR RED LODGE AS
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE LIMITED IF THE WAVE PROVES TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE... BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LITTLE ACCUMULATION
HERE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S.

SYSTEM WILL WIND DOWN TOMORROW NIGHT...AND A COUPLE HARD FREEZES
IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
PER THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS. NEXT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...SHOULD ENHANCE OUR
PCPN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...PCPN TYPE IS A MUCH EASIER QUESTION TO ANSWER AND SHOULD
BE SNOW. GREATEST FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR SOUTH
SHOULD FAVOR THIS AREA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE RED LODGE AND SHERIDAN.

JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS
THAT COULD APPROACH RECORD LOW TEMPS. A COUPLE OF GOOD SYSTEMS
ROTATE THROUGH REGION TO START AND END THE PERIOD...WITH WEAKER
WAVES IN BETWEEN. MADE A FEW CHANGES...MAINLY TO CONTINUES
DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER...FAVORING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...FOR THE PASSAGE OF A TROF ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COLDER...WITH POTENTIAL RECORD LOWS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE AIRMASS MODERATES SOME AFTER FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS TRENDING UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES INDICATED...BUT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD DRY OUT TOO MUCH
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT ON TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE BEGINNING MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS PUSH INTO THE REGION. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS IN KLVM. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION YET THIS EVENING...SWITCHING
WINDS TO A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL TAF SITES AND
ACROSS ALL ROUTES...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. PRECIP...WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. AAG

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/045 028/044 028/041 024/049 031/055 033/057 035/055
18/O 32/W 33/W 01/B 00/U 02/W 22/W
LVM 033/045 025/041 026/037 018/044 024/053 026/056 029/055
17/O 42/W 43/J 11/B 01/B 12/W 23/W
HDN 040/046 028/047 028/044 025/050 033/056 033/060 035/059
28/R 42/W 33/W 01/B 00/U 02/W 22/W
MLS 041/047 030/046 030/045 026/049 033/053 034/058 034/057
38/R 42/W 22/W 00/B 11/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 041/044 030/046 029/043 025/047 033/052 033/058 035/058
29/R 52/W 23/W 10/B 10/U 02/W 22/W
BHK 041/044 030/044 030/043 025/046 031/052 033/055 032/054
59/R 52/W 23/W 00/U 11/B 12/W 22/W
SHR 039/043 028/042 028/039 022/045 029/053 030/055 031/054
28/O 42/W 53/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 22/W

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 117-123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 274-284.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

210 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE DELMARVA. STILL EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A
BRIEF DRY BUT CLOUDY PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
NIGHT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OVER INDIANA AS
IT GETS CAUGHT BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH. ACROSS NEW YORK THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCE
POPS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MILD TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MANY SPOTS
WILL NOT SEE LOWS DROP BELOW 60 WITH OTHER SPOTS SEEING UPPER 50S
FOR LOWS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND WINDS LIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TAPERING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM KIAG TO
KART.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME STRONGLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED
FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL US TO THE APPALACHIANS...
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST BY DAY 6-7. UPSTREAM A STRONG
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN PUSH EAST
TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY DAY 7. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND ONWARD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL INDUCE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.
EXPECT MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STREAK...THEN THE LOWER CIGS MAY LIFT BACK TO A LOWER MVFR
RANGE...EVEN TO VFR ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT KBUF/KIAG. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTCENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL FILL AND CONTINUE
TO THE NORTH...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LOWER IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. DRYING FROM ALOFT IN THE WEST WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY...IT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AT KART.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY CENTRAL AND
NORTH.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAINS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LAKES. WAVES AVERAGING LESS THAN 2 FT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY AND USHERS IN THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS AND A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER WHICH MAY BRING BACK SCA
CONDITIONS.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK