Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/28/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1057 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE MOST
SYNOPTIC FORCING AFTER 6Z AS NOTED FROM 850-500MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN LAYER PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...PRETTY
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE MODEL FIELDS ALONG
THE 300 K ISENTROPE STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS SUGGEST
ONSET OF RAIN BY 3-4Z FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION
AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO FIT WITH LINEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS OF
CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY. LATE TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICS COMING
INTO PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...HAD HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED
AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS OF MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT
RESTRICTED THIS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION.

MIN TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THESE AND THE DEWPOINTS FIELDS. STILL LOOKING AT A GENERAL RANGE
OF MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVIEST RAIN VIA BEST ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED MORE JUST
TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING...BUT EVEN SO NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS FRI AFTERNOON...COMBO OF GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY JUST TO ITS
EAST WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS. MOST MODELS ARE
UNDERPLAYING THIS...EXCEPT FOR THE 12Z RGEM WHICH IS A VERY WET
OUTLIER WITH UP TO 2 INCHES TOTAL QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN CT FRI
AFTERNOON. NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS MAY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SFC-BASED AND WHERE A FEW GUSTY
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS COMBO OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX AND POSSIBLE INDUCED
SFC WAVE SWEEP ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT...SO HAVE JUST CONTINUED A GENERIC CHANCE POP
DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED..ALBEIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM AS
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WELL OFF
THE EAST COAST ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS TO START OFF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WITH
THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK METRO AREA.

A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN SWINGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ALL
MODELS TRACK THIS LOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE GEM IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF...BUT WEAKENS IT AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO A COASTAL LOW. THE
ECMWF ALSO HAS THIS COASTAL LOW...BUT IT IS FARTHER OFFSHORE...MORE
ALIGNED WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAKER. SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH A SOLID HALF INCH OF QPF...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE...ON THE FRONT...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AND
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WINDS AND GUSTS...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THE WARM
FRONT MOVES ON SHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VFR CONDITIONS LOWER WITH 1500 TO 2500 FT CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO 3 TO 5 SM IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
FOG...AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2 SM IN RAIN AND FOG TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
MORNING...AROUND 12Z TO 18Z. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED COVERAGE.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT-TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TOWARD SAT MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE.
.SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS FOR SURROUNDING BUOYS VERIFYING WITH CURRENT
WAVEWATCH SO JUST PUSHED BACK SCA 2 HOURS...STARTING IT ON OCEAN
BY 8Z FRI.

SCA NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...BEGINNING ON THE OCEAN LATE
TONIGHT AND ON THE HARBOR/SOUND/BAYS BY FRI MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THIS
TIME. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD MAX OUT AT EITHER 6-7 FT ON FRI...ABOUT 1
FT ABOVE 12Z WAVEWATCH.

SCA CONDS SHOULD LINGER ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...THEN QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL MOSTLY NW OF THE LOW CENTER
INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...FROM NYC METRO AND
POINTS NORTH/WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAIN FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT IN THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW AS
IT MOVES ACROSS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR MINOR FLOODING. ISOLD FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH HEAVIEST TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...BUT THIS THREAT
APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLD TO WARRANT A WATCH. A STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC
HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON
PLUS ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FT OF SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING
TONIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS ON FRI COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FRI NIGHT IN THE MOST
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF WRN LONG
ISLAND...AND ALONG WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 958 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES FARTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRI BRINGING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT
THE REGION SAT BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOMING BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE STILL SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND BUT TRENDING
OUR WAY. THE LATEST HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS PROJECT PCPN
TO HARTFORD 05Z-06Z AND TO BOSTON 08Z-09Z. THIS MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH PAST FORECASTS FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
IN FORECAST AT THIS UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONITORING THE SHORT-TERM FCST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/WRF WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN GETTING INTO
THE WRN FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATING THE AREAL
COVERAGE TO INCREASE GRADUALLY EWD TOWARDS THE MORNING. PRECIP
AMNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS IS EXPECTED FOR THE CT VLY BY
MORNING.

DWPTS HAVE FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO THE AFTN PD...BUT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR VALLEY LOCALES. VSBYS DOWN TO HALF A
MILE WILL BE PSBL. DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DOES DEPEND UPON CONDITIONS
REMAINING CLEAR AND WIND STAYING RELATIVELY CALM. THIS MAY BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE WRN TIER OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT PSBL FOR INTERIOR
ERN LOCALES SUCH AS S NH AND NE MA.

MIN TEMPS AROUND THE MID 40S ANTICIPATED...STAYING SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD OVER THE CT VLY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. COOLEST SPOTS
WILL BE S NH AND NE MA WHERE THE DRIEST AIR PRESENTLY RESIDES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...
FOLLOWING 18Z NAM TRENDS COMBINED WITH THE WRF-ARW...THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A PRONOUNCED TONGUE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS CAN NOT BE IGNORED AS THERE IS GENERAL
MDL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE H85 LOW.
INTERPOLATING THIS MOTION AND EVALUATING THE LOW-MID LVL FIELDS...
IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND /AS SEEN PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...TO THE SERN
PROXIMITY OF H85 LOW CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS INTO THE DC METRO/. SPC PRESENTLY HAS A SEE-TEXT AREA FOR THE
RGN. HAVE UPDATED WX FIELDS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
TSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST /POSSIBLY AS FAR N TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR...
SWEEPING NEWD INTO THE CAPE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
INTO SAT MORN/.

FRIDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
OH/WVA/PA TO MOVE ENE AND ITS ATTENDING SURFACE WAVE TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI WITH A WIND SWEPT RAIN FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH SE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH.

AS FOR QPF...GFS APPEARS TOO ROBUST WITH QPF COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUID. 12Z EC/UKMET/NAM AND 15Z SREF ALL
SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD 0.5 INCH OF QPF WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH
OR A BIT MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE UPSLOPE. FOR
WHATEVER REASON THE GFS APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH ITS FGEN DESPITE ITS
WIND FIELD WEAKER THAN THE NAM. PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.6 INCHES BUT
GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM AND MODEL CONSENSUS THINKING GFS
QPF IS TOO HIGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS EARLY EVENING AND THEN BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AS TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. HOWEVER LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND FOG MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH SURFACE WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR SAT/SUN
* COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE RGN SUN NGT/MON
* HIGH PRES DOMINATES TUE THRU THURS

MODEL ANALYSIS...
MDL SOLNS ARE FAIRLY SUCCINCT INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH SFC FEATURES...YET OVERALL THE
HEIGHT FIELDS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BIFURCATED H5
CLOSED LOW RETROGRADING INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN. WITH THE FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT...WENT WITH CONSENSUS MDL BLEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
27/12Z NAM AND GFS KEY UPON THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTING NEWD
FROM THE CAPE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY
IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. IT IS IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE THAT
DOWNWARD MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL COUPLED WITH DRIER AIR ENTRAING THRU
THE MID-LVLS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ERN GRT LKS. MDL
SOLNS ARE EXHIBITING A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING THRU THE DAY. WEAK FORCING IS APPARENT BENEATH THE INVERSION
SUBSTANTIATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. THE BETTER
MOIST AXIS AND ATTENDANT FORCING WILL REMAIN ALONG SE NEW ENGLAND
AND OFFSHORE...THUS LOW CHC POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S /MAY SEE A FEW LOCALES GET INTO
THE LOW 70S/...WITH A MILD NGT INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
MDL SOLNS SUCCINCT ON THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE H5
CLOSED LOW EJECTING NEWD THRU THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. SFC LOW
PRES WITH ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED ASCENT LIFTING
ACROSS THE RGN SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY SUNDAY
NIGHT LINGERING INTO MONDAY...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE
27/0Z ECMWF. THERE IS SOME LIMITATION ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS
THE BEST MOIST AXIS REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...IN
ADDITION TO WEAK DEEP LYR ASCENT /BUT DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING/. FEEL SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. MILD SUNDAY NGT WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE...REMAINING COOL ON MONDAY /THOUGH SOME
DEPENDENCE ON HOW FAST WET WX MOVES OUT OF THE RGN/.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR AND HIGHER PRES ADVECT ACROSS THE RGN WITH A MORE ZONAL
FLOW REGIME. MDLS APPEAR CLOSE IN TREND WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SFC
HIGH PRES THRU THE RGN...BUT THE 27/0Z ECMWF HINTS AT CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE S COAST FOR TUES. EVALUATING FURTHER...THE
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DYNAMICS RESIDES ALONG THE STALLED
FRNTL BOUNDARY ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT RIDGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...DRAPING SWWD THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GULF. AM
CONFIDENT IN LEAVING THE PD DRY WITH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE S
COASTLINE. SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING THRU A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR
THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
REMNANT ENERGY FROM TS MIRIAM /PRESENTLY OFF BAJA CA/ WOBBLES EWD
THRU THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEK...INVOKING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD
BY MIDWEEK AS WEAK TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
THE 27/0Z ECMWF AND 27/12Z GFS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR THURS INTO
FRI BEING WET. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE EVOLUTION OF HEAVIEST
RAINS ASSOC WITH THE DISTURBANCE.

SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...
EARLY INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS HIGH PRES ADVECTING SEWD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. IF THE CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS ANY INDICATION...
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...OUR FIRST TRUE
TASTE OF AUTUMN /GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES WITH THE ECMWF FOR THIS
TIME FRAME/.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CT VLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
WITH -RA AND INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY IMPACTS. ACTIVITY STREAMS EWD
THRU THE DAY AND OVRNGT...ON INTO SAT MORN. RAIN LOOKS TO BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WHILE EXACT TIMING OF
IMPACTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT THE WORST OF
THE CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE EVNG PDS AS CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO LOWER AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE S SHORE LATE FRI INTO FRI NGT
CONTINUING OUT ALONG THE CAPE INTO SAT MORN. WILL EVALUATE MORE
CLOSELY WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES. ANTICIPATE INCREASING ELY FLOW
THRU THE PD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEPENING DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT STRATIFORM RAINS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE THE NEXT 6-12 HRS REMAINS CERTAIN...THERE IS A LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS LATE FRI INTO FRI NGT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER FOR
THAT PD.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
INITIAL RAINS TO GET INTO THE TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING GRADUALLY. BETTER CHCS FOR THUNDER FOR THE LATE FRI
INTO FRI NGT PD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATING A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS DURING THE
EVNG PD. THRU THE DAY SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT VFR AROUND 4 KFT. SCT
SHRA AND DZ...WITH THE BEST CHCS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LGT
AND VRB FLOW FOR THE PD. PSBL VSBY IMPACTS THRU THE EVNG WITH BR AND
PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRNT SWEEPS THRU THE RGN. MIX OF MVFR/VFR
CIGS THRU THE EVNG...IMPROVING THRU THE DAY MONDAY. SHRA MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN VSBY IMPACTS...BEST CHCS FOR CENTRAL AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE W AND BECOMING BLUSTERY
/ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST/.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. HIGH PRES WITH WLY FLOW...SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT STILL BLUSTERY ALONG THE S COAST. MAY SEE SOME MID-HIGH
LVL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS AN OFFSHORE DISTURBANCE
SLIDES EWD.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS
BUT LONG FETCH ENE WINDS OF 15 KT OR SO WILL YIELD BUILDING SEAS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. RAIN WILL ENTER THE NY WATERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

FRI...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH ROUGH SEAS AS WELL...AS LOW PRES TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST.  RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

FRI NIGHT...
WINDS BEGIN TO EAST AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ME. HOWEVER
SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE.  EVENING RAIN GIVES WAY TO
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
FRNTL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES OUT TO SEA WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR
SHOWERS /ACROSS THE E WATERS INITIALLY/ AND BLUSTERY SW FLOW. SHOULD
SEE WINDS RELAX BECOMING LGT AND VRB LATE. IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION
SHOULD DIMINISH. MAY BE SOME VSBY IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH MIST
AND PATCHY FOG. LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MAINLY THE PREVAILING WX.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE S WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO BLUSTERY W/SWLY FLOW AS THE COLD FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT...
DIMINISHING LATE TUES. WILL ALSO SEE A DISTURBANCE SLIDE ALONG THE
FRNT TUES S OF THE WATERS. COULD SEE A SHOWER...OTHERWISE REMAINING
CLOUDY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ231-250-251-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 809 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE MOST
SYNOPTIC FORCING AFTER 6Z AS NOTED FROM 850-500MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN LAYER PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...PRETTY
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE MODEL FIELDS ALONG
THE 300 K ISENTROPE STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS SUGGEST
ONSET OF RAIN BY 3-4Z FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION
AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO FIT WITH LINEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS OF
CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY. LATE TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICS COMING
INTO PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...HAD HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED
AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS OF MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT
RESTRICTED THIS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION.

MIN TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THESE AND THE DEWPOINTS FIELDS. STILL LOOKING AT A GENERAL RANGE
OF MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVIEST RAIN VIA BEST ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED MORE JUST
TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING...BUT EVEN SO NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS FRI AFTERNOON...COMBO OF GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY JUST TO ITS
EAST WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS. MOST MODELS ARE
UNDERPLAYING THIS...EXCEPT FOR THE 12Z RGEM WHICH IS A VERY WET
OUTLIER WITH UP TO 2 INCHES TOTAL QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN CT FRI
AFTERNOON. NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS MAY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SFC-BASED AND WHERE A FEW GUSTY
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS COMBO OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX AND POSSIBLE INDUCED
SFC WAVE SWEEP ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT...SO HAVE JUST CONTINUED A GENERIC CHANCE POP
DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED..ALBEIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM AS
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WELL OFF
THE EAST COAST ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS TO START OFF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WITH
THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK METRO AREA.

A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN SWINGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ALL
MODELS TRACK THIS LOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE GEM IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF...BUT WEAKENS IT AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO A COASTAL LOW. THE
ECMWF ALSO HAS THIS COASTAL LOW...BUT IT IS FARTHER OFFSHORE...MORE
ALIGNED WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAKER. SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH A SOLID HALF INCH OF QPF...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE...ON THE FRONT...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WINDS AND GUSTS...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THE WARM
FRONT MOVES ON SHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VFR CONDITIONS LOWER WITH 1500 TO 2500 FT CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO 3 TO 5 SM IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
FOG...AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2 SM IN RAIN AND FOG TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
MORNING...AROUND 12Z TO 18Z. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED COVERAGE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTS
MAY NOT DEVELOP..OR MAY BE SHORT LIVED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTS
LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT EARLY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH. GUSTS LIKELY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AREA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH MINIMAL TO NO GUSTS
EXPECTED. GUSTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF GUSTS DEVELOP.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AREA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH NO GUSTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT EARLY.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT-TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TOWARD SAT MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE.
.SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...BEGINNING ON THE OCEAN LATE
TONIGHT AND ON THE HARBOR/SOUND/BAYS BY FRI MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THIS
TIME. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD MAX OUT AT EITHER 6-7 FT ON FRI...ABOUT 1
FT ABOVE 12Z WAVEWATCH.

SCA CONDS SHOULD LINGER ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...THEN QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL MOSTLY NW OF THE LOW CENTER
INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...FROM NYC METRO AND
POINTS NORTH/WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAIN FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT IN THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW AS
IT MOVES ACROSS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR MINOR FLOODING. ISOLD FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH HEAVIEST TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...BUT THIS THREAT
APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLD TO WARRANT A WATCH. A STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC
HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON
PLUS ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FT OF SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING
TONIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS ON FRI COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FRI NIGHT IN THE MOST
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF WRN LONG
ISLAND...AND ALONG WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1023 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH SOME RAIN...PREDOMINANTLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT...THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS DUE TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO NEW
ENGLAND...LEAVING OUR AREA IN A LULL FOR NOW. WE HAVE DROPPED POPS
TO JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...AS SFC
FORCING FROM A COLD FRONT REMAINS OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE 3KM HRRR AGREES WITH THIS IDEA OF A QUIET REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS RETURNING FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO REKINDLE IN THE EARLY PM. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH A THIRD OVER THE REGION. THE IMMENSE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED/ SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. SBCAPES ARE GENERALLY UNDER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER VALUES OR BEST LIFTED INDICES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE
TO BE RATHER WEAK. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE.
POPS WERE CONTINUED IN THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES LATE.

THERE IS NOT AN ANTICIPATION OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE
TO THE MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES PROJECTED BY THE
GUIDANCE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 70S
ARE POSSIBLE IN NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE NAM BEING MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS. WE KEPT SLIGHT OR LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 0600 UTC...SINCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL LINGERS UPSTREAM EVEN ON THE NAM.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME FOG MAY FORM IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME PATCHY
FOG WAS ADDED TO RECENT WET GROUNDS...AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH U30S TO M40S NORTH AND WEST.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A FINE EARLY FALL DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. WE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAVMOS MAX
TEMPS WITH H850 TEMPS OF +2C TO +6C. MIXING SHOULD BE FROM H800 TO
H850. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER
THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE INTERESTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NRN ZONES COULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM WITH A POTENTIAL
FROST OR FREEZE. FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...BUT FROM KPOU
SOUTH AND EAST SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY POP UP WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH A
SHORT- WAVE RIPPLING ALONG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO M30S
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO U30S TO M40S SOUTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER RAIN BY AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NAM/EC/GFS/CAN GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP
CUTOFF FROM THE RAINFALL...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAINFALL WERE BROUGHT UP TO THE CAPITAL
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. A BROAD CUTOFF LOW WILL BE DESCENDING
EQUATORWARD FROM JAMES BAY. MORE SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TRI CITES...AS TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK
WITH U50S TO U60S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WHICH FORECAST PERIODS HAVE THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THE FA IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY A
LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER CANADA AS WELL AS A SERIES OF
COASTAL SYSTEMS AT THE SURFACE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR DELMARVA
FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE JERSEY COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND FINALLY OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON MONDAY INTO THE EASTERN
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAS THE EARLIEST DEPARTURE AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GGEM IS THE FARTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST
WITH THE ECMWF TRACK IN BETWEEN.

AT THIS POINT PLAN ON GOING WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NOSE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ALSO EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PCPN ACRS
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS A DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PASSING SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LOW STILL TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS LIKELY TO
BE SATURDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH MORE SUNSHINE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z THURSDAY...THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND SOME VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACRS THE AREAS AND
AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVENING WITH CIGS STILL REMAINING
MAINLY MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 KTS WITH WINDS THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3-6 KTS DURING THE EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR KPOU W/CHC SHWRS ON FRI.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE NON EXISTENT IN THE REGION
WITH A WETTING RAIN CONTINUING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THEM TO LOWER IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OF NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
BRING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM TWO TENTHS TO A HALF AN
INCH OR SO...THOUGH ANY LOCATION THAT MIGHT GET CAUGHT UNDER A
THUNDERSTORM COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH.  RIVERS...
STREAMS...CREEKS...BROOKS AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER MAY HAVE
MINIMAL RISES AT BEST. THE 06Z HPC QPF WAS USED CLOSELY PRIOR TO
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE HSA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND A CUTOFF LOW MAY BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN TO
THE HSA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NWP GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH/...BUT A STEADIER MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAINFALL...AND HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATIONS OF
THE CUTOFF LOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KENX DOPPLER RADAR WILL BE UNDERGOING REPAIRS AS ADDITIONAL
PARTS ARE ON ORDER. THE KENX RADAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOWN AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN SERVICE BY MID AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
SEPTEMBER 26TH 2012. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 912 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THEN ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF BY TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 6Z/7Z HRRR 6Z NAM/GFS AND 3Z SREF ALL
SUGGEST THAT AFTER CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH IN THE NEXT HOUR...THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
SHOULD BE BASICALLY DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER S CENTRAL
PA...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT HEADS ENE...AND
GIVEN MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING BASED ON A BLEND OF 7Z HRRR/6Z NAM/3Z SREF POPS.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACKS...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT
MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO 850 WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NW 1/3 OF THE CWA
WITH SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND WITH A PASSING 700 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SHOULD HAVE
MODEST INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON - 100-500 J/KG OF CAPE - TO
WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR
WITH THE MEAGER CAPE WILL LIKELY SHEAR OUT STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE
COAST...900 HPA INLAND...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
700 HPA TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE-850 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. TAPER LIKELY POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM NW TO SE
WITH ITS PASSAGE. LIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF
MEAGER CAPES AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION - BUT VERY UNLIKELY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

PASSING 500 HPA TROUGH WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE DRY WITH DECREASING LOUD COVER
AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAVE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 850
HPA WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
FORECASTING VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A
RESULT...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS DO NOT PUSH IN
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST DATA BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RAINY PERIOD FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS SHOW THAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE 10C H85 ISOTHERM. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
THIS WEEKEND. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

NAM AND ECMWF WERE THE FASTEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS IS THE TIMING FAVORED BY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS. THE GFS
KICKS IN AROUND 18Z FRI. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARDS THE FASTER
PROGS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN FRI. MAINTAINED THE 40 POPS BECAUSE THE NAM SHOWED
MARGINAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MEASURABLE. IF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES HOWEVER...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS OVER THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...H5 TROUGH WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH POINT TO THIS OCCURRING...
ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXACTLY ON THE SAME
SCHEDULE. OUTSIDE OF THIS LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF LGT
RAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONE. POPS HAVE
THEREFORE BEEN INCREASED BY 10 PCT TO HIGH CHANCE.

IT LOOKED LIKE THE MODELS CLEARED THINGS OUT FOR MON...BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF ROLLED IN WET. FORCED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE SHRA FOR THIS PERIOD.
BEHAVIOR OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE FCST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 10DAM DEEPER THAN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT CLOSE TO THE CLUSTERING POSITION-WISE.
THE GFS IS DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF AND NE OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA...SO
APPEARS TO BE EVEN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONSENSUS. FCST IS
UNCERTAIN IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES APPEAR SUPPRESSION OF HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TAKES
PLACE ON TUE...CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THEREFORE KEPT A DRY
FCST FOR TUE.

TEMPS THU NIGHT-FRI ARE A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS
(BCGMOS)/MET/MAV. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST A BLEND OF THE
BCGMOS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS/ECMWF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF GUSTS TODAY IN MODERATE
S-SW FLOW. THEY COULD BE A FEW KT STRONGER THAN FCST FROM 17Z-
21Z...AND MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KSWF AND
AHEAD OF COLD FROPA THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WHICH IS NOT YET MENTIONED IN TAF DUE
TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

MVFR VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER COLD FROPA AT KSWF...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AT THE SAME TIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY-SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR.
.FRI-SUN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE
GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE.

GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TODAY...THEN ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
CROSSING THE COASTAL OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR TODAY...AND CONTINUED IT FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCA LEVEL SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING LONGER
OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA THERE AT THIS TIME. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT-SAT. NE FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DEEPENS
NEAR THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE ERN OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THU NIGHT-TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON ON SAT...SO SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE SPOT WOULD BE THE S
SHORE BAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-340-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN/24
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 814 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THEN ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF BY TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 6Z/7Z HRRR 6Z NAM/GFS AND 3Z SREF ALL
SUGGEST THAT AFTER CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH IN THE NEXT HOUR...THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
SHOULD BE BASICALLY DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER S CENTRAL
PA...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT HEADS ENE...AND
GIVEN MARINE AIRMASS IN PLACE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING BASED ON A BLEND OF 7Z HRRR/6Z NAM/3Z SREF POPS.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACKS...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT
MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO 850 WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NW 1/3 OF THE CWA
WITH SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND WITH A PASSING 700 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SHOULD HAVE
MODEST INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON - 100-500 J/KG OF CAPE - TO
WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR
WITH THE MEAGER CAPE WILL LIKELY SHEAR OUT STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE
COAST...900 HPA INLAND...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
700 HPA TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE-850 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. TAPER LIKELY POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM NW TO SE
WITH ITS PASSAGE. LIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF
MEAGER CAPES AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION - BUT VERY UNLIKELY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

PASSING 500 HPA TROUGH WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE DRY WITH DECREASING LOUD COVER
AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAVE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 850
HPA WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
FORECASTING VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A
RESULT...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS DO NOT PUSH IN
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST DATA BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RAINY PERIOD FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS SHOW THAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE 10C H85 ISOTHERM. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
THIS WEEKEND. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

NAM AND ECMWF WERE THE FASTEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS IS THE TIMING FAVORED BY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS. THE GFS
KICKS IN AROUND 18Z FRI. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARDS THE FASTER
PROGS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN FRI. MAINTAINED THE 40 POPS BECAUSE THE NAM SHOWED
MARGINAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MEASURABLE. IF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES HOWEVER...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS OVER THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...H5 TROUGH WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH POINT TO THIS OCCURRING...
ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXACTLY ON THE SAME
SCHEDULE. OUTSIDE OF THIS LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF LGT
RAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONE. POPS HAVE
THEREFORE BEEN INCREASED BY 10 PCT TO HIGH CHANCE.

IT LOOKED LIKE THE MODELS CLEARED THINGS OUT FOR MON...BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF ROLLED IN WET. FORCED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE SHRA FOR THIS PERIOD.
BEHAVIOR OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE FCST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 10DAM DEEPER THAN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT CLOSE TO THE CLUSTERING POSITION-WISE.
THE GFS IS DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF AND NE OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA...SO
APPEARS TO BE EVEN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONSENSUS. FCST IS
UNCERTAIN IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES APPEAR SUPPRESSION OF HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TAKES
PLACE ON TUE...CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THEREFORE KEPT A DRY
FCST FOR TUE.

TEMPS THU NIGHT-FRI A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
MOS(BCGMOS)/MET/MAV. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST A BLEND OF THE
BCGMOS/MEN/ECE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY DROP
BETWEEN 2-3K FT AND 5SM RESPECTIVELY IN ANY SHOWERS...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IS AT KSWF AND MAINLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. IF WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT AT KSWF...3-5SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE
WORKING IN AT THE SAME TIME.

A MODERATE S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS ALOFT OVER WESTERN ZONES DECREASE THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW HIGH GUSTS THEY WILL BE. THEY COULD ALSO BE A FEW
KT HIGHER BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z AND MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TRACKING ENE IS TIMED TO REACH
NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL DEVELOP. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE SHOWERS/TSTM. POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WIND SHIFT TO
THE W BEHIND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z...THEN TO THE
NW BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY-SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR.
.FRI-SUN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACKS...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT
MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TODAY...THEN ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
CROSSING THE COASTAL OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR TODAY...AND CONTINUED IT FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCA LEVEL SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING LONGER
OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA THERE AT THIS TIME. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT-SAT. NE FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DEEPENS
NEAR THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE ERN OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THU NIGHT-TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON ON SAT...SO SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE SPOT WOULD BE THE S
SHORE BAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-340-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 711 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AS
THE ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH SOME RAIN PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
OVER THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN THE PCPN SHIELD...AS THE
LATEST RUC40 SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LULL IN THE PCPN IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 3KM HRRR TOWARDS LUNCHTIME.

THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG S/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW INTERACTING WITH IT. AFTER A LULL
IN THE PCPN...WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO REKINDLE IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY PM. PWATS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH A
THIRD OVER THE REGION. THE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLOUD CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED/ SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
SFC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. SBCAPES ARE GENERALLY UNDER A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THERE IS A NARROW
RIBBON OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES OR BEST LIFTED INDICES AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WEAK. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC
OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE...AND REMOVED THEM TO THE NORTH. POPS WERE
CONTINUED IN THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES LATE. THERE IS NOT AN
ANTICIPATION OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES PROJECTED BY THE GUIDANCE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS...TO MAINLY U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE NAM BEING MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS. WE KEPT SLIGHT OR LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 0600 UTC...SINCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL LINGERS UPSTREAM EVEN ON THE NAM.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME FOG MAY FORM IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME PATCHY
FOG WAS ADDED TO RECENT WET GROUNDS...AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH U30S TO M40S NORTH AND WEST.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A FINE EARLY FALL DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. WE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAVMOS MAX
TEMPS WITH H850 TEMPS OF +2C TO +6C. MIXING SHOULD BE FROM H800 TO
H850. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER
THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE INTERESTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NRN ZONES COULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM WITH A POTENTIAL
FROST OR FREEZE. FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...BUT FROM KPOU
SOUTH AND EAST SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY POP UP WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH A
SHORT- WAVE RIPPLING ALONG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO M30S
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO U30S TO M40S SOUTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER RAIN BY AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NAM/EC/GFS/CAN GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP
CUTOFF FROM THE RAINFALL...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAINFALL WERE BROUGHT UP TO THE CAPITAL
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. A BROAD CUTOFF LOW WILL BE DESCENDING
EQUATORWARD FROM JAMES BAY. MORE SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TRI CITES...AS TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK
WITH U50S TO U60S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WHICH FORECAST PERIODS HAVE THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THE FA IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY A
LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER CANADA AS WELL AS A SERIES OF
COASTAL SYSTEMS AT THE SURFACE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR DELMARVA
FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE JERSEY COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND FINALLY OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON MONDAY INTO THE EASTERN
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAS THE EARLIEST DEPARTURE AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GGEM IS THE FARTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST
WITH THE ECMWF TRACK IN BETWEEN.

AT THIS POINT PLAN ON GOING WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NOSE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ALSO EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PCPN ACRS
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS A DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PASSING SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LOW STILL TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS LIKELY TO
BE SATURDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH MORE SUNSHINE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z THURSDAY...THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND SOME VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACRS THE AREAS AND
AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVENING WITH CIGS STILL REMAINING
MAINLY MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 KTS WITH WINDS THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3-6 KTS DURING THE EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR KPOU W/CHC SHWRS ON FRI.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE NON EXISTENT IN THE REGION
WITH A WETTING RAIN CONTINUING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THEM TO LOWER IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OF NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
BRING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM TWO TENTHS TO A HALF AN
INCH OR SO...THOUGH ANY LOCATION THAT MIGHT GET CAUGHT UNDER A
THUNDERSTORM COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH.  RIVERS...
STREAMS...CREEKS...BROOKS AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER MAY HAVE
MINIMAL RISES AT BEST. THE 06Z HPC QPF WAS USED CLOSELY PRIOR TO
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE HSA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND A CUTOFF LOW MAY BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN TO
THE HSA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NWP GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH/...BUT A STEADIER MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAINFALL...AND HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATIONS OF
THE CUTOFF LOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KENX DOPPLER RADAR WILL BE UNDERGOING REPAIRS AS ADDITIONAL
PARTS ARE ON ORDER. THE KENX RADAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOWN AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN SERVICE BY MID AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
SEPTEMBER 26TH 2012. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
EQUIPMENT...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 657 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AS
THE ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH SOME RAIN PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
OVER THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN THE PCPN SHIELD...AS THE
LATEST RUC40 SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LULL IN THE PCPN IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 3KM HRRR TOWARDS LUNCHTIME.

THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG S/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW INTERACTING WITH IT. AFTER A LULL
IN THE PCPN...WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO REKINDLE IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY PM. PWATS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH A
THIRD OVER THE REGION. THE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLOUD CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED/ SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
SFC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. SBCAPES ARE GENERALLY UNDER A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THERE IS A NARROW
RIBBON OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES OR BEST LIFTED INDICES AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WEAK. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC
OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE...AND REMOVED THEM TO THE NORTH. POPS WERE
CONTINUED IN THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES LATE. THERE IS NOT AN
ANTICIPATION OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES PROJECTED BY THE GUIDANCE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS...TO MAINLY U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE NAM BEING MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS. WE KEPT SLIGHT OR LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 0600 UTC...SINCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL LINGERS UPSTREAM EVEN ON THE NAM.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME FOG MAY FORM IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME PATCHY
FOG WAS ADDED TO RECENT WET GROUNDS...AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH U30S TO M40S NORTH AND WEST.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A FINE EARLY FALL DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. WE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAVMOS MAX
TEMPS WITH H850 TEMPS OF +2C TO +6C. MIXING SHOULD BE FROM H800 TO
H850. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER
THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE INTERESTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NRN ZONES COULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM WITH A POTENTIAL
FROST OR FREEZE. FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...BUT FROM KPOU
SOUTH AND EAST SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY POP UP WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH A
SHORT- WAVE RIPPLING ALONG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO M30S
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO U30S TO M40S SOUTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER RAIN BY AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NAM/EC/GFS/CAN GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP
CUTOFF FROM THE RAINFALL...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAINFALL WERE BROUGHT UP TO THE CAPITAL
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. A BROAD CUTOFF LOW WILL BE DESCENDING
EQUATORWARD FROM JAMES BAY. MORE SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TRI CITES...AS TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK
WITH U50S TO U60S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WHICH FORECAST PERIODS HAVE THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THE FA IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY A
LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER CANADA AS WELL AS A SERIES OF
COASTAL SYSTEMS AT THE SURFACE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR DELMARVA
FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE JERSEY COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND FINALLY OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON MONDAY INTO THE EASTERN
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAS THE EARLIEST DEPARTURE AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GGEM IS THE FARTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST
WITH THE ECMWF TRACK IN BETWEEN.

AT THIS POINT PLAN ON GOING WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NOSE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ALSO EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PCPN ACRS
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS A DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PASSING SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LOW STILL TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS LIKELY TO
BE SATURDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
WITH MORE SUNSHINE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CIGS AND
VSBYS LOWER WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS.

THE SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOSER TO THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE
ACRS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND BORDERLINE MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE VCSH AND AWAIT
FUTURE TRENDS AS EXPECTATIONS THAT MVFR THRESHOLDS COULD BE
SATISFIED. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVENING WITH
CIGS STILL REMAINING MAINLY MVFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EXCEPT SOUTH ARND 8 KTS AT KALB. ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8 KTS WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3-6 KTS DURING THE EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR KPOU W/CHC SHWRS ON FRI.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE NON EXISTENT IN THE REGION
WITH A WETTING RAIN CONTINUING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THEM TO LOWER IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OF NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
BRING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM TWO TENTHS TO A HALF AN
INCH OR SO...THOUGH ANY LOCATION THAT MIGHT GET CAUGHT UNDER A
THUNDERSTORM COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH.  RIVERS...
STREAMS...CREEKS...BROOKS AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER MAY HAVE
MINIMAL RISES AT BEST. THE 06Z HPC QPF WAS USED CLOSELY PRIOR TO
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE HSA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND A CUTOFF LOW MAY BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN TO
THE HSA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NWP GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST /A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH/...BUT A STEADIER MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAINFALL...AND HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATIONS OF
THE CUTOFF LOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KENX DOPPLER RADAR WILL BE UNDERGOING REPAIRS AS ADDITIONAL
PARTS ARE ON ORDER. THE KENX RADAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOWN AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN SERVICE BY MID AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
SEPTEMBER 26TH 2012. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 633 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THEN ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF BY TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 6Z/7Z HRRR 6Z NAM/GFS AND 3Z SREF ALL
SUGGEST THAT AFTER CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH IN THE NEXT HOUR...THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
SHOULD BE BASICALLY DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER S CENTRAL
PA...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT HEADS ENE...AND
GIVEN MARINE AIRMASS IN PLACE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING BASED ON A BLEND OF 7Z HRRR/6Z NAM/3Z SREF POPS.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACKS...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT
MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO 850 WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NW 1/3 OF THE CWA
WITH SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND WITH A PASSING 700 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SHOULD HAVE
MODEST INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON - 100-500 J/KG OF CAPE - TO
WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR
WITH THE MEAGER CAPE WILL LIKELY SHEAR OUT STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE
COAST...900 HPA INLAND...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
700 HPA TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE-850 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. TAPER LIKELY POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM NW TO SE
WITH ITS PASSAGE. LIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF
MEAGER CAPES AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION - BUT VERY UNLIKELY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

PASSING 500 HPA TROUGH WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE DRY WITH DECREASING LOUD COVER
AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAVE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 850
HPA WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
FORECASTING VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A
RESULT...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS DO NOT PUSH IN
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST DATA BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RAINY PERIOD FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS SHOW THAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE 10C H85 ISOTHERM. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
THIS WEEKEND. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

NAM AND ECMWF WERE THE FASTEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS IS THE TIMING FAVORED BY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS. THE GFS
KICKS IN AROUND 18Z FRI. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARDS THE FASTER
PROGS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN FRI. MAINTAINED THE 40 POPS BECAUSE THE NAM SHOWED
MARGINAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MEASURABLE. IF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES HOWEVER...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS OVER THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...H5 TROUGH WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH POINT TO THIS OCCURRING...
ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXACTLY ON THE SAME
SCHEDULE. OUTSIDE OF THIS LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF LGT
RAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONE. POPS HAVE
THEREFORE BEEN INCREASED BY 10 PCT TO HIGH CHANCE.

IT LOOKED LIKE THE MODELS CLEARED THINGS OUT FOR MON...BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF ROLLED IN WET. FORCED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE SHRA FOR THIS PERIOD.
BEHAVIOR OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE FCST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 10DAM DEEPER THAN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT CLOSE TO THE CLUSTERING POSITION-WISE.
THE GFS IS DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF AND NE OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA...SO
APPEARS TO BE EVEN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONSENSUS. FCST IS
UNCERTAIN IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT DOES APPEAR SUPPRESSION OF HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TAKES
PLACE ON TUE...CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THEREFORE KEPT A DRY
FCST FOR TUE.

TEMPS THU NIGHT-FRI A BLEND OF THE BCGMOS/MET/MAV. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST A BLEND OF THE BCGMOS/MEN/ECE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LIFTS N OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY DROP
BETWEEN 2-3K FT AND 5SM RESPECTIVELY IN ANY SHOWERS...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IS AT KSWF AND MAINLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. IF WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT AT KSWF...3-5SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE
WORKING IN AT THE SAME TIME.

A MODERATE S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. OCNL GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN GUSTS RETURN AND HOW
HIGH THEY WILL BE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS ALOFT
OVER WESTERN ZONES DECREASE THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTN. AT EASTERN TERMINALS...THEY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST...WHERE WINDS OFF THE DECK WILL BE HIGHER. GUSTS COULD
ALSO BE A FEW KT HIGHER BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z AND MAY LINGER A FEW
HOURS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WDLY SCT SHOWERS EARLY...THEN PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN
UNTIL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. SCT
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
PRECEDE THE FROPA WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z TO
06Z THU RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND DECREASING
SPEEDS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS/TSTM. POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 30
KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.


KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY-SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR.
.FRI-SUN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACKS...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT
MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TODAY...THEN ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
CROSSING THE COASTAL OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR TODAY...AND CONTINUED IT FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCA LEVEL SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING LONGER
OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA THERE AT THIS TIME. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT-SAT. NE FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DEEPENS
NEAR THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE ERN OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THU NIGHT-TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON ON SAT...SO SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE SPOT WOULD BE THE S
SHORE BAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-340-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JMC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 242 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
500 HPA SHORTWAVE BACK OVER PA...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE
TRI-STATE.

LATEST HRRR BRINGS THE CORE OF THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL PA TO THE NW OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THIS AREA WEAKENS AS WELL. POPS UPDATED TO BLEND OF
HRRR/SREF/NAM 3-HOURLY POPS AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED AS A
RESULT.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF
ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS...SO EXPECT LOWS 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS POP
CHANCES LOWER. SREF AND GEFS ALONG WITH OPERATION 12Z RUNS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. IN FACT...HAVE MADE IT DRY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA.

USED A MIX OF THE MOS PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING. EVEN IF THE NAM
NUMBERS DO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE A BAY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT IS TIMED IN FOR THE EVENING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH SKINNY CAPE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTM.

BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE NWP SYSTEMS...APPEARS THAT
BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LATE EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN...OVERALL ABOUTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES TO THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE FRONT COULD PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER TYPE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE 25/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
OR WEST OF THE CWA TIL SUN NIGHT...WHEREAS THE 25/12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FOR NOW WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY DROP
BETWEEN 2-3K FT AND 5SM RESPECTIVELY IN ANY SHOWERS...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IS AT KSWF AND MAINLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. IF WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT AT KSWF...3-5SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE
WORKING IN AT THE SAME TIME.

A MODERATE S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. OCNL GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN GUSTS
RETURN DURING THE MORNING AND HOW HIGH THEY WILL BE. THEY COULD BE
1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS
WHERE WINDS OFF THE DECK WILL BE HIGHER. GUSTS COULD ALSO BE A FEW
KT HIGHER BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z AND MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS IS ONLY PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAIN AT KSWF
EARLY THIS MORNING. REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES WHICH SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON RUNWAY CONDS. ONCE
THIS AREA LIFTS N...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDELY SCT TO NIL
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
PRECEDE THE FROPA WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z TO
06Z THU RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND DECREASING
SPEEDS.

WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY-SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR.
.FRI-SUN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN TIMING FOR
ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...WITH ON AND OFF MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS OVER ALL BUT NY
HARBOR OVERNIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT NY HARBOR THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD ON THE OCEAN AS A RESULT OF THE SW
FLOW. WINDS AND OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON
WED.

SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SCA
CONDITIONS STARTING SOONER THAN FORECAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT/JST
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/JST
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/JC/MALOIT/JST
HYDROLOGY...BC/JST







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1241 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
500 HPA SHORTWAVE BACK OVER PA...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE
TRI-STATE.

LATEST HRRR BRINGS THE CORE OF THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL PA TO THE NW OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THIS AREA WEAKENS AS WELL. POPS UPDATED TO BLEND OF
HRRR/SREF/NAM 3-HOURLY POPS AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED AS A
RESULT.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF
ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS...SO EXPECT LOWS 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS POP
CHANCES LOWER. SREF AND GEFS ALONG WITH OPERATION 12Z RUNS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. IN FACT...HAVE MADE IT DRY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA.

USED A MIX OF THE MOS PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING. EVEN IF THE NAM
NUMBERS DO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE A BAY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT IS TIMED IN FOR THE EVENING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH SKINNY CAPE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTM.

BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE NWP SYSTEMS...APPEARS THAT
BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LATE EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN...OVERALL ABOUTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES TO THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE FRONT COULD PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER TYPE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE 25/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
OR WEST OF THE CWA TIL SUN NIGHT...WHEREAS THE 25/12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FOR NOW WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MODERATE S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24H WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT RETURNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFT WED. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TERMINALS 02Z TO 06Z THU.

MID LEVEL DECK ADVANCES IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. LOW END VFR
CIGS IN THE MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS IN ANY SHOWERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS. CIGS IMPROVE LATE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO LOWER
TOWARD 00Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.THU...VFR.
.FRI-SUN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN TIMING FOR
ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...WITH ON AND OFF MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS OVER ALL BUT NY
HARBOR OVERNIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT NY HARBOR THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD ON THE OCEAN AS A RESULT OF THE SW
FLOW. WINDS AND OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON
WED.

SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SCA
CONDITIONS STARTING SOONER THAN FORECAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JST/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/JC/JST/BC
HYDROLOGY...JST/BC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 335 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
STUBBORN BAND OF MOISTURE AND MID LVL VORTICITY CONTS TO SUPPORT
ISOLD SHRAS OVER THE ATLC N OF THE CAPE THAT ARE PUSHING ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...RADAR TREND SHOWS THESE DECREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HRS
AS THE MOISTURE/VORTICITY HAVE MERGED WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL
MOISTURE OVER S FL. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLUG OF
DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL FL PWAT VALUES AT KTBW ARND 0.9"...INCREASING
TO 1.3" AT KJAX AND TO 2.1" AT KMFL.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH ITS AXIS TRAILING BACK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH TO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AT THE MID LVLS...HOWEVER...THE AXIS HAS A
MORE NW/SE ORIENTATION...RESULTING IN SERLY FLOW THRU THE H85-H50
LYR. A SMALL TROF AXIS ALSO NOTED IN THIS LAYER ACRS CNTRL FL WITH
MEAN RH VALUES INCREASING FROM AOB 30PCT AHEAD OF ITS AXIS...TO AOA
85PCT BEHIND IT. MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED A LITTLE IN THE
PAST 24HRS AS WELL...NOW UP TO 5.5-6.5C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL GENERATE A STEADY E/NE FLOW
ACRS CENTRAL FL...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT PUSHES DEEP MOISTURE UP FROM
THE FL STRAITS. THE DENSE MID/UPR LVL HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE
BLANKETED THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL THIN OUT AS THE
H30-H20 JET STREAK THAT HAS SUPPORTED THEM PULLS INTO THE
ATLC...LEAVING PCLDY SKIES ACRS THE NRN CWA. WHILE THIS AREA WILL
NOT SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN...THE GREATER SFC HEATING
POTENTIAL WILL MAKE THEM BETTER CANDIDATES FOR SCT TSRAS. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVER THE SRN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER SFC HEATING...WILL
KEEP CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS IN FROM OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SWD.

SHRAS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVNG...BUT SHOULD END OVER THE
INTERIOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL NEED TO
KEEP 20/30 POPS IN FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AS ERLY FLOW THRU THE
H100-H70 LYR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NOCTURNAL COASTAL CONVERGENCE
SHRAS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS IN THE M80S...MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER ACRS THE INTERIOR CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR WITH THE THINNING OF THE MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS...READINGS
IN THE U80S/L90S. MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

THU-FRI...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WINDS STAY
OUT OF THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ABOUT TWO
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MODEL RAIN CHANCES OF 30 NORTH TO
40 SOUTH LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREA.

SAT-TUE...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WORKS IT WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
FLORIDA SUNDAY AND SLOWLY DROPS DOWN THE PENINSULA AND INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT STRONG BUT IS OFFSET BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUS 40 AND 50 POP FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 26/16Z...ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE COAST N OF KTIX WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PDS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...LCL IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN PASSING
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...VFR
ELSEWHERE. BTWN 26/16Z-27/02Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS ALL
SITES. AFT 27/02Z...CHC SHRAS S OF KMLB...SLGT CHC N OF KMLB...VFR
INTERIOR SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LONG E/NE FETCH OVER THE WRN ATLC DUE TO AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ICELAND TO THE NW GOMEX.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE THRU
DAYBREAK THU. ERLY SWELLS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY SINCE PEAKING
EARLY TUE AFTN...CANAVERAL BUOYS MEASURING 4-5FT SWELLS AND
NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS BTWN 2-3FT. SWELLS WILL DIMINISH ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO BEFORE ENTERING A RATHER STEADY STATE OF 3-4FT AREAWIDE
AROUND MIDDAY...DOMINANT PDS INCREASING FROM 8-9SEC TO ARND 12SEC
AFT MIDNIGHT. CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS MOVING ONSHORE AS DEEP
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S.

THU-SUN...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. WINDS STAY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT
15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS WITH A LONG PERIOD SWELL. LATE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  71  87  73 /  30  20  30  30
MCO  90  71  89  71 /  30  20  30  20
MLB  86  73  86  75 /  30  30  30  30
VRB  86  74  86  75 /  30  30  40  30
LEE  90  71  90  72 /  30  20  30  20
SFB  89  71  89  72 /  30  20  30  20
ORL  90  71  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
FPR  86  74  87  74 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 320 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EVOLVING COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SPLITS UPON
ARRIVAL OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WITH ONE BRANCH CONTINUING
ON ACROSS CANADA AND A SECOND BRANCH DIVING SOUTHWARD AND AROUND A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES. THIS BRANCH
THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A SOUTHERN STREAM JET CORE THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE FL PENINSULA THE PAST DAY OR SO IS BEGINNING TO PULL OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF
SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE STILL SHOWED A
SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-500MB THIS PAST EVENING
WHICH HELPED ONCE AGAIN SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING
OF THIS LAYER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A RE-INTRODUCTION OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST TO NORTHERN GA/AL. A PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS
RESULTING INTO THE FL PENINSULA AND HELPING TO TO BRING A RATHER
HUMID AIRMASS BACK TO THE REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE OF THE SW FLORIDA COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY STAYING OFFSHORE...THIS ENERGY WILL LIKELY AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE ERODING QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
RESULTING IN A MUCH LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO DEEP CONVECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST STUBBORN DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE NATURE
COAST ZONES...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARD CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES...AND
WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES (~20%) FOR THESE ZONES. RAIN
CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH TO AROUND 30% BY THE
I-4 CORRIDOR AND THEN RANGE UP TO AROUND 50% TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL NOT ONLY BE A RESULT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
INFLUENCED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS EXTENDING ACROSS
THE SE GULF/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL ALSO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE SUN FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...ENOUGH INSOLATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE
TEMPS CLIMB TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 OF 90.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY
DRY OVERNIGHT FOR THE LAND ZONES AFTER 02-03Z. THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY TRANSITIONS THE SCT
CONVECTION TO THE OFFSHORE ZONES...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE OF THE
SUNCOAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH NORMALLY COLDER AREAS THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST ZONES STILL POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S. THE EAST
FLOW OFF TAMPA BAY WILL ALSO HELP KEEP CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PINELLAS COUNTY WARMER.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE EXPANDING BACK TO
THE NORTH TO AT LEAST FILTER THE SUNSHINE OVER ALL ZONES. DEPENDING
ON JUST HOW THICK THIS CIRRUS ENDS UP BEING...HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN ADVERTISED...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY A
CLOSE BLEND OF THE MAV/MET NUMBERS. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...WILL
CONTINUE A PATTERN OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCT CONVECTION NORTH...AND SCT STORMS SOUTH
DURING THE LATER MORNING THROUGH MIDDLE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH SURFACE FEATURES. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE COMPLEX AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS IS STILL THE OUTLIER IN SHOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HOLD THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...THE ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...BUT IS OTHERWISE STILL SIMILAR TO THE CMC
WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES SLIP INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF BY TUESDAY BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A RATHER WET
PERIOD OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OF THE TWO
WEEKEND DAYS WITH LOW-END CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN A SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE. STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE DAY OR NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO NORTHERN ALABAMA. NEAR
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE
OF EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE LEGS. THE
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEK AND HELP KEEP WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE AGAIN CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE NEAR LAL AND PGD. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING SO WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY
MAINLY BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  89  74 /  30  20  40  20
FMY  89  75  90  74 /  50  20  50  20
GIF  91  73  90  72 /  30  20  40  20
SRQ  89  73  89  73 /  40  20  40  20
BKV  91  71  89  69 /  30  20  40  10
SPG  90  78  88  76 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1034 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. BEGINNING
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS REMAINED NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND...AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING. CURRENT DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHERN
FA THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS REMAINED
OFF TO OUR NORTH THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SINK
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN IT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE MAIN UPPER PATTERN
REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH THE
MENTION OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN
FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
GENERALLY KEEPS READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...STRATUS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUNRISE. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A 20 KT JET. TOUGH CALL BETWEEN FOG AND OR A MIX OF STRATUS.
THINK BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE CSRA NEAR
AGS...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR MODEL AND MET/MAV MOS.

AT THIS TIME HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER ALL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION
IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH OGB/AGS AND A PERIOD OF LIFR AT AGS NEAR 12Z.

EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
EXPECT EXTENT TO BE LESS THAN THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS TO
BECOME VFR MORE QUICKLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 123 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND THEN LINGER NEAR THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE AGAIN
TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE...26/13Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG
THE BEACHES FROM SAINT CATHERINES SOUND SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
SOUND...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT A MODEST CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP AT THE COAST AND
SOUTH OF I-16 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
IN PLACE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVES PASS BY TO THE
NORTH. THIS PATTERN CAUSES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS INITIALLY
ATOP THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY TO WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY FORCING IT TO
WEAKEN ENOUGH FRIDAY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HIGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC
AND MERGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE THERE IS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AND COLUMNAR
MOISTURE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW SETS IN. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR
-3/-4 AND SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE. FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SHOW NO MORE THAN 14 PERCENT POPS OVER LAND-BASED LOCATIONS. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO VALUES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON
MAXIMUM READINGS BOTH DAYS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S MOST
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE SLIGHTLY COOLER COASTLINE. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 20
OR 30 MILLIBARS AND LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY
LAYER WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY
DENSE FOG OCCURRING.

SATURDAY...THE RECENTLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SE CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ESTABLISHES A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
RIDGING FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. A
STRONG 100 KT OR GREATER JET PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AND PUSHES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC/SE STATES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN SENDS A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT WITH
THE APPROACHING JET AND FALLING HEIGHTS SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
BOOST TEMPS AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND..WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH TO
AT LEAST THE GULF COAST STATES...OR MAYBE EVEN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS IN TURN PUSHES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
THEN LIFTS OUT ON MONDAY...BUT IT LEAVES BEHIND A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHICH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF BY MID
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OR LACK THEREOF FOR THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT...AND IT ALSO RUNS INTO A BUILDING
ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. PLUS A SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM ON
THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD FURTHER SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WE/LL KEEP THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THUS A
GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE PREFER TO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCE
NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND THE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE IS PINNING DOWN THE EXTENT
OF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITHIN A CALM
WIND REGIME AND THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO SOME
PARAMETERS ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG. ATTM IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE KCHS-KSAV
TERMINALS WITH KSAV LIKELY SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
IMPACT. GIVEN MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK OFF SOMEWHAT...DO NOT
SEE A NEED TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS ATTM. PLAN TO KEEP KCHS VFR FOR
THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH KSAV ONLY DROPPING TO MVFR FROM
08-12Z. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TAFS WILL NEED TO BE TRENDED LOWER IN BOTH
VSBYS/CIGS WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
FOG THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MAY
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO SUB-VFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING A LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 5 FT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN EDGES OF THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...OTHERWISE NO HIGHER
THAN 3 OR 4 FT ELSEWHERE TO OCCUR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS INTO SATURDAY...WHICH GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THIS TIME WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH MOSTLY GENTLE OR MODERATE BREEZES
/WMO CLASSIFICATION/...AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MARINERS WILL
EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 1024 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND THEN LINGER NEAR THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE AGAIN
TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE...26/13Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG
THE BEACHES FROM SAINT CATHERINES SOUND SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
SOUND...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT A MODEST CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP AT THE COAST AND
SOUTH OF I-16 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
IN PLACE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVES PASS BY TO THE
NORTH. THIS PATTERN CAUSES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS INITIALLY
ATOP THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY TO WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY FORCING IT TO
WEAKEN ENOUGH FRIDAY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HIGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC
AND MERGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE THERE IS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AND COLUMNAR
MOISTURE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW SETS IN. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR
-3/-4 AND SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE. FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SHOW NO MORE THAN 14 PERCENT POPS OVER LAND-BASED LOCATIONS. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO VALUES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON
MAXIMUM READINGS BOTH DAYS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S MOST
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE SLIGHTLY COOLER COASTLINE. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 20
OR 30 MILLIBARS AND LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY
LAYER WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY
DENSE FOG OCCURRING.

SATURDAY...THE RECENTLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SE CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ESTABLISHES A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
RIDGING FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. A
STRONG 100 KT OR GREATER JET PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AND PUSHES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC/SE STATES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN SENDS A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT WITH
THE APPROACHING JET AND FALLING HEIGHTS SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
BOOST TEMPS AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND..WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH TO
AT LEAST THE GULF COAST STATES...OR MAYBE EVEN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS IN TURN PUSHES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
THEN LIFTS OUT ON MONDAY...BUT IT LEAVES BEHIND A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHICH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF BY MID
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OR LACK THEREOF FOR THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT...AND IT ALSO RUNS INTO A BUILDING
ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. PLUS A SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM ON
THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD FURTHER SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WE/LL KEEP THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THUS A
GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE PREFER TO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCE
NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING UPON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND THE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING OVER TO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL TEETER NEAR MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS AS A
RESULT...BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE VFR WEATHER. THE SET
UP LOOKS AT LEAST MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...PRODUCING MVFR OR MAYBE EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z.

KCHS...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/STRATUS. PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DO NOT JUSTIFY ANYTHING
WORSE THAN 6SM IN MIST AND FEW STRATUS CLOUDS AT 800 FEET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
FOG THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MAY
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO SUB-VFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING A LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 5 FT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN EDGES OF THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...OTHERWISE NO HIGHER
THAN 3 OR 4 FT ELSEWHERE TO OCCUR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS INTO SATURDAY...WHICH GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THIS TIME WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH MOSTLY GENTLE OR MODERATE BREEZES
/WMO CLASSIFICATION/...AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MARINERS WILL
EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 221 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 221 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF KIKK TO NEAR KUIN. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHERLY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS
BEGINNING TO SETTLE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA. MEANWHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...AS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL IMPEDE ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS A
RESULT...THINK FRONT WILL ONLY SINK TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-72
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL
BE PRESENT. WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND DRIER AIRMASS ONLY
TRICKLING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...THINK AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. LAST NIGHT...FOG FORMED IN LOCATIONS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS HOVERED IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROVIDE A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG AT BOTH KMTO AND KLWV AND HRRR VISBY PROGS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL...SO HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AS THE FRONT MAKES ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PARIS TO
SHELBYVILLE LINE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FINALLY GIVE THE BOUNDARY A GOOD PUSH
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIM CHANCE FOR A SHOWER SOUTH OF I-70
INTO FRIDAY IN CASE FRONT IS DELAYED...BUT WILL GO WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO AM ONLY EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. AFTER THAT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS
INTO THE 80S AFTER THAT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE
15 TO 17C RANGE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN THE EXTENDED.


BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1249 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH CIGS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALSO
PERSISTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND UNTIL THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPI/DEC/CMI HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY...SO HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP VCSH IN TAF AS PINNING DOWN TIMING FOR
SUCH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS DIFFICULT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SHOULD START TO SEE
SOME DRIER AIR ADVECT SOUTHWARD...SO THINKING THAT FOG SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GIVEN PREVIOUS RAINFALL...COULD
SEE SOME POCKETS OF MVFR. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

ECT
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 332 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY RENSSELAER TO WARSAW TO MONROE
MI. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WERE ATTEMPTING TO FORM ON THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/STORMS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24 ALONG SEMI STATIONARY TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A WAVE WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA GIVING EXTRA LIFT TO THE FEATURE.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS AND STILL LOOK
REASONABLE SO WILL RUN WITH PRE 1ST PERIOD WITH SOME TIMING OF
PRECIP HOPEFULLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. SOME CONCERNS THAT FAR SE
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME
BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW AND LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

FRONT AND DEEPER MSTR STILL LOOKS TO SETTLE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SAVE
SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY STICK AROUND GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT AND ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT TO THROW AT
LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER NORTHWARD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH
DEWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GENERAL PATTN DEAMPLIFICATION XPCD THIS PD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND.
ACTIVE W-E FNTL ZONE INVOF THE OH RVR WILL SINK SWD IN RESPONSE TO
RETROGRADING COMING OUT OF WRN QB FRI NIGHT. HWVR CONTD DRY NRLY FLW
EQUATES TO LTL IF ANY SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS SANS DY4 SAT PENDING SWRN
EXTENT OF UPR LOW TRACK. WILL CONT W/DRY FCST AS MODEL TRACK
CONSENSUS REMAINS NE OF AREA W/LIMITED MSTR.

OTHERWISE TEMPS NR SEASONAL NORMS TO START THE PD W/GRADUAL
MODERATION TO MUCH ABV XPCD LT PD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KSBN WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SLOWLY ARRIVING. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT KFWA...FORECAST MORE CHALLENGING WITH FRONT STILL TO THE
NW AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SLOWLY WORKING N/NNE
OUT OF CNTRL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. 13Z RUN OF HRRR HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SETUP AND TRIES TO BRING THE AREA AS FAR NORTH
AS THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER WITH FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY HAVE DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY SHOWER/STORM MENTION AND MONITOR TRENDS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 150 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KSBN WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SLOWLY ARRIVING. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT KFWA...FORECAST MORE CHALLENGING WITH FRONT STILL TO THE
NW AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SLOWLY WORKING N/NNE
OUT OF CNTRL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. 13Z RUN OF HRRR HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SETUP AND TRIES TO BRING THE AREA AS FAR NORTH
AS THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER WITH FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY HAVE DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY SHOWER/STORM MENTION AND MONITOR TRENDS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED TO REFLECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IN MAINLY S/SE COUNTIES. SMALL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA WAS WORKING SLOWLY NNE. LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WAS WORKING NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND TRYING TO EXPAND.
HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN FAR SE AREAS WITH CAT
POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND A QUICK TAPER TO NO POPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED DOWN THE WARMUP
SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REQUIRE DRASTIC CHANGES IN FORECAST
HIGHS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012/

SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS THIS MORNING WITH SFC CDFNT
MOVG SE TO JUST NW OF OUR CWA ATTM. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA...
ESPCLY NRN PORTIONS COMBINED WITH MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG WHICH SHOULD PERSIST A SHORT WHILE BEYOND
DAYBREAK. NO CONVECTION ALONG FRONT MOVG THROUGH THE GRTLKS WITH
JUST STRATUS/FOG ACCOMPANYING IT OVER MI. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH WK VORT MAXES EJECTING EASTWARD FROM WESTERN TROF
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY CONTG TO CAUSE CLUSTERS
OF TSTMS IN THAT AREA. SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE STAYED SOUTH
OF THE CWA THOUGH A CLUSTER DID IMPACT SRN PORTION OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT AND CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS SE ATTM. CDFNT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WK SHRTWVS MOVG EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY TODAY WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUPPORTS CONTINUING CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SE.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTD WITH DRY
FCST BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. FAIR WX EXPECTED THU-THU NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA
TODAY SHOULD STALL OVER THE OH VALLEY THU-THU NGT SO SOME
CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THESE PERIODS.

TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GOING
FCST CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND LITTLE CHANGE MADE BUT DID HEDGE
TOWARD SMALLER DIURNAL SWINGS SOUTH THAN NORTH DUE TO EXPECTATION OF
GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THAT PORTION OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT OFF LOW DOWNSTREAM OF A BLOCKING RIDGE.
FAVOR THE ECMWF THIS PACKAGE WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST THE PAST 4 RUNS. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC 295K LEVEL INDICATES THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN 500 MB ANALOGS WERE STILL HAVING ISSUES HANDLING THE
DEVELOPMENT THIS UPPER LOW AS INDICATED BY CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
BELOW 0.80. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN...A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP A COOL FETCH OUT OF CANADA...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.  CURRENT THINKING
IS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...RISING INTO 70S BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 123 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTS TO ADVECT A MOIST AIRMASS INTO NRN
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SLOW DETERIORATION TO
CIGS/VSBYS AS STRATUS/FOG FORMS. IN ADDITION...TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF FWA BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. OTRWS CONTD WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
CDFNT ACROSS MI/NW IL IS RATHER DIFFUSE BUT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO NORTH SHOULD OCCUR AT SBN AROUND 12Z AND AT FWA BY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012/

UPDATE...

GOING GRIDS WILL BE NEED SOME WORK WITH OBVIOUS DISCREPENCIES
BETWEEN SKY COVER AND TAFS. FAVOR INCREASING STRATUS THROUGH THE
NIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH MOISTURE POOLING HELPING SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS. HRRR REALLY PICKING UP ON THIS AS IT
DID SEVERAL NIGHTS AGO. EXPECTING THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO HELP
KEEP VIS IN THE 2SM TO 4SM RANGE GIVEN LACK OF RAIN TODAY. HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE SOUTH WHERE IT DID RAIN TODAY BUT CLOUDS
EXPECTED CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE CLEARING WHICH SHOULD
HELP OFFSET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY EXIT
BY 21Z. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP INTO TONIGHT. PRE 1ST
PERIOD MENTION OF INCREASED POPS TO COVER DEPARTURE OF THIS
FEATURE. VIS SAT/SFC OBS INDICATE NOSE OF INCREASING THETA E
EDGING INTO E ILLINOIS WITH A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BUT SUSPECT NOTHING WILL COME OF IT WITH MAIN FORCING
SOUTH. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS SLOWED AS EXPECTED WITH MODELS
STILL DROPPING IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. BY THE
TIME IT ARRIVES...LITTLE IMPACT IN TERMS OF POPS IS EXPECTED...BUT
ASSOCIATED MSTR WITH IT COULD AID IN STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE
STAYED CONSERVATIVE AND WENT WITH CLEARING TREND NORTH AND HANG
ONTO CLOUDS SOUTH. GIVEN TRENDS...JUST CAN`T SEE HOLDING ONTO
LIKELY POPS IN FAR SOUTH AND AFTER COORDINATION HAVE LOWERED TO
HIGH END CHC. ALSO TAPERED POPS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH.

ON WEDS...COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE FRONT REMAINS AS ENERGY
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE LL MSTR COULD BE GUTTED
ALREADY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR AT MOST
SCT SHOWERS SE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS WITH TEMPS STILL VERY
SEASONABLE AROUND 70. FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDS
NGT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LONG TERM...
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW DEPARTS ANOTHER WAVE WILL TAKE ITS
PLACE WITH SOUTHERN EXTENSION SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
FEATURE WILL BE MSTR STARVED WITH ONLY REAL EFFECT BEING A
CONTINUATION OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP
CHANCES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1230 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.UPDATE...

AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRY THINGS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD DIP TO
NEAR/JUST BELOW NORMAL AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FINALLY ENTERED THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. STORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS THEY MADE THEIR WAY ACROSS
ILLINOIS SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE. HOWEVER...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

IN REGARDS TO THE FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. THEREFORE...CUT POPS WAY BACK ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH JUST SOME SHOWER MENTION. THE RAP HAS
HAD A PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SO WILL FOLLOW
ITS PROJECTION OF INCREASING SHOWERS...AND PROBABLY SOME
THUNDER...IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME. THE BEST FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAX LOOK TO PASS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...FOCUSING
MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE I KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW LEVEL JET REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP
UP AFTER 06Z AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75
INCHES.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MAINLY BE ON TRACK...JUST BUMPED UP LOWS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EXTREME SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S IN PLACES WHERE STORMS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW
SHORTWAVES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. WITH A FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CATEGORICAL POPS GOING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIKELIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST AS BEST FORCING AGAIN WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTH POPS DECREASE IN TIME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE ENOUGH FORCING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BY THURSDAY THERE IS LITTLE LEFT AND
WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY STILL RESIDE.

WITH THE FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GOOD FLOW OFF THE GULF COULD SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING. AT THIS POINT DOESN/T
LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A HEADLINE BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY THOUGHT A CONSENSUS WORKED WELL AS MUCH
IS CONTINGENT UPON EXACT FRONTAL POSITION AND ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY WITH 60S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF COLD ADVECTION UP THERE.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PER THE CENTRAL
REGION INITIALIZATION. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN
UPPER LOW NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEGREE OF MODEL TO
MODEL AND MODEL VERSUS MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL ACCEPT THE SMALL
POPS FROM CR INIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AND
SATURDAY ACROSS JUST OUR FAR SOUTH. WILL ALSO ACCEPT THE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AS AN 850 MB JET
POINTS INTO THIS REGION.  TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE AREAS OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SOME
LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS. WILL FORECAST CEILINGS ABOUT 3 THOUSAND
FEET MOST AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND CEILINGS OF 1 TO 2 THOUSAND
FEET BY 09Z OR 10Z AND CONTINUING TO ABOUT MIDDAY. FOG POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THERE WILL BE PROBABLY ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING TO MIX OUT ANY STRATUS
BY MIDDAY. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KLAF AREA AS MOST
OF THIS WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE WILL MENTION VCTS MOST
AREAS WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST OR WEST AROUND
10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY 8 KNOTS
OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT AT KBMG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...HOMANN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/JP







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 633 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

THE FIRST PRIORITY FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
ARE OF A SECONDARY CONCERN. THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS OUR
SOUTHWEST CORNER, SOUTHWEST OF A HAMILTON TO GRANT TO SEWARD LINE,
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE. I THINK THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO OR THREE
HAIL PRODUCERS IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST CORNER, BUT MAINLY AFTER 9 PM CDT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS JUST MARGINAL CAPE THIS EVENING IN THE 1000
J/KG, THE RUC MODEL HAS LITTLE OR NO 0-6 KM HELICITY, AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS FOR A POINT NEAR
RICHFIELD SHOW -5.8 LI`S BY 06Z.  IF THERE IS SOME SEVERE, IT WILL
BE A LATE SHOW AFTER 9PM CDT.  WE HELD A EMS/KDOT/FEMA CONTACTS,
AND TOLD THEM POSSIBLE HAILERS WITH UP TO GOLF BALL HAIL AFTER 7 PM
CDT, SO THEY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF NOTICE.

AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTION, THERE IS A GOOD
WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THEREFORE, THERE
WILL BE INCREASING POPS AFTER 06Z, FROM WEST TO EAST.  THERE COULD
BE A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT, BUT DID NOT OVERDO THE RAINFALL
QPF SINCE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPOTTY SUCH AS THE LAST
SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  LAST NIGHT, DOWN NEAR LIBERAL, WE
HAD ONE RAINFALL REPORT OF 3.50 INCHES 2 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
AND ANOTHER REPORT OF 2.61 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF ROLLA. SO, WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKE THAT IS NOT EXPECTED
AGAIN.  THE RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FOR NEAR ELKHART SHOWED 1.13
INCHES AT 06Z.  OUR EASTERN CWA SHOULD STAY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH
3-5SM FOG, AND THE WEST WILL LIKELY SEE EVEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY
UNDER THE THICK CLOUDS, AND SHOULD ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S
IN THE WEST AND THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY COULD STILL BE WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF A LINE FROM
HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY MORNING THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON EVENT. POPS WILL BE 40 TO
50 PERCENT EAST OF THAT LINE ABOVE, WITH 30 TO 40 POPS WEST OF THAT
LINE.  HOW MUCH RAIN IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION CALLERS SEEM TO ASK,
BUT DO NOT THINK ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE PULLING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT BUT STEADY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.  FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOL
ONE, AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES OF ELLIS, EDWARDS AND CLARK COUNTIES (AND EAST) AND
IN THE LOWER 70S TO DOWN NEAR 70F DEGREES OUT WEST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER NEAR THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

FRIDAY NIGHT:

CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE WANE FRIDAY EVENING AS A 90 KT
250 HPA JET STREAK TRAVERSES QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE AND AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. AS A RESULT, HAVE RAMPED POPS DOWN SOONER
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS FOG.
BUFKIT/BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. THIS IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS
KANSAS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN CALM. HAVE INSERTED AREAS OF
FOG IN THE WX GRIDS AS BETTER CONFIDENCE OF FOG VIA THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW RH PROGS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:

THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, THE WARM PLUME SPREADING EAST, AND LACK OF
REAL SURFACE MOISTURE & CONVERGENCE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SUNDAY
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT/TROF AXIS WHICH COULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINLY USE THE 12Z ECMWF
FOR GUIDANCE IN CONCERNING THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW. SLIGHT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW AND RESULTED IN NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR
TO THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWERING PRESSURES
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES
BY NEXT THURSDAY. WILL NOT STRAY FROM WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES ME AS
THE VALUES LOOK REASONABLE WITH HIGHS COOLING DOWN INTO THE 70S DEG
F. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD
AND ELONGATED SO ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AS A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE SITS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA030 BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AOA045. WINDS ARE
THEN FORECASTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROPPING
TO AROUND 4 MILES WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS BELOW 1000 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  73  56  76 /  60  50  20  10
GCK  58  71  55  75 /  60  40  10  10
EHA  57  72  55  76 /  70  40  10  10
LBL  58  73  56  76 /  70  50  20  10
HYS  58  73  55  76 /  40  50  10  10
P28  62  75  60  77 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 304 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A 250MB 55KT JET STREAK LOCATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER 50KT JET WAS
LOCATED IN THE BASED ON THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUD
TOPS WERE COOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM 00Z- 02Z. A 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 00Z AND AT THE
850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORIGINATED NEAR THE 310K
THETA LEVEL IN WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE
THIS MORNING, HAS DECAYED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN IMMEDIATE MECHANISM TO DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, AND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NOW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS HAVING A LARGE EFFECT ON RAP MODEL MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY NOT
EXCEED 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN A COOL CLOUDY REGIME THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR BEHIND THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE WAS REFLECTED WELL BY THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WESTERN KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TREND AND INSERT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS NEEDED.

THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WAS
LOCATED OVER NEVADA ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB LOW AND APPROACHES
THE AREA. NAM AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LATE TODAY WITH IMPROVING 850-700MB MOISTURE
AND FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM AND
00Z GFS DO HOWEVER DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE LOCATION ON WHERE THE
BETTER FRONTOGENESIS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS CONVECTION CHANCES
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ARE EXPECTED BY LATE DAY BASED ON
THE 00Z NAM. CAPE VALUES WILL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000J/KG WITH 0-2.5KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM.
GIVEN THIS AND SOME LATE DAY FORCING DEVELOPING WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER LATER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH WHAT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SUGGESTED. WILL ALSO NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS FORECAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH A FRONT
STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA AND AN UPPER WAVE
STILL TRANSITIONING EASTWARD.  THERE WILL BE 50 PERCENT POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES AROUND MEDICINE LODGE, 40 PERCENT FROM LARNED TO
LIBERAL, AND 30 PERCENT POPS WEST OF THERE.  THE UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY INTO WICHITA`S AREA, BUT THE FRONT WILL
STILL LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  POPS
WILL DECREASE DURING FRIDAY MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT, BUT THERE IS A MUCH LOWER CHANCE THAN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN THERE IS UPPER SUPPORT.  FOR SATURDAY, SLOWLY DECREASED THE
POPS TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY 00Z SUNDAY.  THE UPPER SUPPORT/WAVE
TO PRODUCE RAIN WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  SO,
NO POPS ARE IN THE PLANS AFTER ABOUT 21Z SATURDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR, SUNNY SKIES RESULT AND A WARMING TREND WILL SET IN FROM
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE QPF COULD END UP SUBSTANTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS IN OUR CWA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  I RAN A STORMTOTALQPF GRID FOR THAT TIME PERIOD,
AND OVER 1.20 INCHES SHOWED UP SOUTH OF JOHNSON CITY TO DODGE CITY
TO PRATT LINE.  NORTH OF THAT LINE, 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. AS ALWAYS, SOME PLACE WILL END UP WITH A HIGHER AMOUNT,
AND MANY OTHER SPOTS WILL GET MUCH LESS RAINFALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
A RAINY FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY
SUNDAY SKY, WHICH WILL BE CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.  UNDER SUNNY SKIES
AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP TO THE MID 80S
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY MORNING, COOLING TO MID
50S BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND BASICALLY STAYING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND THE GEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT BOTH THE H5 AND
SURFACE PRESSURE PROGS, WITH THE GFS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE
MOVING EAST AND ALSO PORTRAYS THE UPPER LOW TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN
EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM MODELS DO.  GRIDS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S ISC GRIDS, AND SEEM REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO THE
ECMWF AND GEM MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 23Z
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  76  61  73 /  60  60  50  40
GCK  56  75  59  71 /  50  50  40  30
EHA  55  76  58  74 /  50  40  30  30
LBL  57  77  60  73 /  50  60  40  40
HYS  56  74  59  71 /  40  40  40  40
P28  62  78  62  75 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUSSELL
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 229 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...THE MCV LEFT FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WAS CENTERED
ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA.  CONVECTION FROM THIS IS
FESTERING NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...EXTENDING INTO MISSOURI.

A STRONG RESIDENT COLD POOL REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...MAKING RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE
QUITE SLOW.  OF NOTE AS WELL IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY ARE GRAVITY
WAVES PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...THE MOST RECENT OF WHICH HAS INCREASING CONVERGENCE
ALONG IT.

THE COLD POOL HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS...WITH AN 18Z POSITION EXTENDING FROM A
KRUE-KFSM-KOKC-KDDC APPROXIMATION.

FROM 18Z TO 19Z...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD POOL HAS NEARLY MIXED OUT.  SOME
CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO FORM IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ENDING AT 19Z SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE ARE THE MAIN IMPULSES AFFECTING THE AREA.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER OF CENTRAL MONTANA.  A VERY DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TONIGHT - THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTERSECTING THE FRONT.  THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 305K AND 310K...AND
THE 1000MB-850MB FRONTOGENESIS REALLY ISOLATE WHERE THIS SHOULD
OCCUR.  THE BULK OF THE NWP CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN AREA OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING.

A SECOND AREA SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV...WHERE
CONVECTION FESTERS THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD AND FINAL AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE NAM-WRF
AND THE HRRR BOTH SHOW STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.  THESE REACH THE FORECAST AREA AT VARIOUS
TIMES.  THE HRRR /MULTIPLE RUNS FROM 10Z THROUGH 15Z/ BRING THIS
CONVECTION INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 01Z...THE 26.12Z NAM-WRF BRINGS IT
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.

THIS HAS A GREAT AFFECT ON THE FORECAST AND WHETHER WE GET
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE LATEST RAP
AT 18Z SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE NAM-WRF.  STILL...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

THURSDAY - ANY ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING.  DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ENABLE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOTHING LOOKS
ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BOTH THE 26.12Z ECMWF AND THE 26.12Z GFS AGREE ON THAT.
THEY ALSO HAVE A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM UP IN CANADA...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE DRY SINCE THE GULF IS CLOSED OFF.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THEN STALLS OVER THE
REGION.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE A BIT
BETTER.

LOOKING OUT AHEAD...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE UNDERWAY.  A
VERY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  THIS
PRODUCES A STRONG DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE NATIONS
MID-SECTION...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
AND CANADA IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OF THE SEASON FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
SURFACE-850 FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...STRETCHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO FAR SOUTHEAST
KS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT CNU AND WILL INCLUDE A VCTS THERE.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST AND WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REMAINING TAF SITES. VFR TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  78  62  73 /  60  50  50  50
HUTCHINSON      62  77  60  72 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          62  76  60  72 /  60  40  40  50
ELDORADO        63  77  61  73 /  60  40  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  79  63  74 /  70  60  50  50
RUSSELL         58  75  58  71 /  30  40  40  40
GREAT BEND      60  76  59  72 /  40  40  40  40
SALINA          61  77  59  74 /  40  30  40  40
MCPHERSON       61  77  60  72 /  50  40  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     64  82  64  75 /  90  60  50  50
CHANUTE         64  78  62  74 /  80  50  50  50
IOLA            64  76  61  74 /  70  50  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    64  80  63  74 /  80  60  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 954 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A 250MB 55KT JET STREAK LOCATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER 50KT JET WAS
LOCATED IN THE BASED ON THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUD
TOPS WERE COOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM 00Z- 02Z. A 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 00Z AND AT THE
850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORIGINATED NEAR THE 310K
THETA LEVEL IN WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE
THIS MORNING, HAS DECAYED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN IMMEDIATE MECHANISM TO DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, AND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NOW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS HAVING A LARGE EFFECT ON RAP MODEL MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY NOT
EXCEED 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN A COOL CLOUDY REGIME THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR BEHIND THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE WAS REFLECTED WELL BY THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WESTERN KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TREND AND INSERT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS NEEDED.

THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WAS
LOCATED OVER NEVADA ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB LOW AND APPROACHES
THE AREA. NAM AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LATE TODAY WITH IMPROVING 850-700MB MOISTURE
AND FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM AND
00Z GFS DO HOWEVER DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE LOCATION ON WHERE THE
BETTER FRONTOGENESIS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS CONVECTION CHANCES
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ARE EXPECTED BY LATE DAY BASED ON
THE 00Z NAM. CAPE VALUES WILL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000J/KG WITH 0-2.5KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM.
GIVEN THIS AND SOME LATE DAY FORCING DEVELOPING WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER LATER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH WHAT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SUGGESTED. WILL ALSO NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS FORECAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL AIDED BY LIFT
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT JET STREAK WITH ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE LOW BECAUSE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE
100KT UPPER-LEVEL JET, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB.

STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
HOWEVER, GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN, AND WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
RATHER COOL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AND 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE
BY MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST, WITH LEE TROUGHING AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES,
IT WAS DECIDED TO RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THOSE GIVEN BY THE
CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
BE TOO COOL. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 23Z
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  58  76  61 /  30  60  60  50
GCK  79  56  75  59 /  30  50  50  40
EHA  81  55  76  58 /  40  50  40  30
LBL  82  57  77  60 /  30  50  60  40
HYS  67  56  74  59 /  30  40  40  40
P28  79  62  78  62 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUSSELL
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 700 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A 250MB 55KT JET STREAK LOCATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER 50KT JET WAS
LOCATED IN THE BASED ON THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUD
TOPS WERE COOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM 00Z- 02Z. A 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 00Z AND AT THE
850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR BEHIND THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE WAS REFLECTED WELL BY THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WESTERN KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TREND AND INSERT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS NEEDED.

THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WAS
LOCATED OVER NEVADA ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB LOW AND APPROACHES
THE AREA. NAM AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LATE TODAY WITH IMPROVING 850-700MB MOISTURE
AND FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM AND
00Z GFS DO HOWEVER DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE LOCATION ON WHERE THE
BETTER FRONTOGENESIS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS CONVECTION CHANCES
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ARE EXPECTED BY LATE DAY BASED ON
THE 00Z NAM. CAPE VALUES WILL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000J/KG WITH 0-2.5KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM.
GIVEN THIS AND SOME LATE DAY FORCING DEVELOPING WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER LATER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH WHAT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SUGGESTED. WILL ALSO NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS FORECAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL AIDED BY LIFT
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT JET STREAK WITH ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE LOW BECAUSE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE
100KT UPPER-LEVEL JET, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB.

STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
HOWEVER, GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN, AND WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
RATHER COOL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AND 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE
BY MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST, WITH LEE TROUGHING AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES,
IT WAS DECIDED TO RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THOSE GIVEN BY THE
CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
BE TOO COOL. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 23Z
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  58  76  61 /  30  60  60  50
GCK  79  56  75  59 /  40  50  50  40
EHA  83  55  76  58 /  40  50  40  30
LBL  85  57  77  60 /  30  50  60  40
HYS  78  56  74  59 /  30  40  40  40
P28  83  62  78  62 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 358 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A 250MB 55KT JET STREAK LOCATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER 50KT JET WAS
LOCATED IN THE BASED ON THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUD
TOPS WERE COOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM 00Z- 02Z. A 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 00Z AND AT THE
850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR BEHIND THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE WAS REFLECTED WELL BY THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WESTERN KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TREND AND INSERT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS NEEDED.

THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WAS
LOCATED OVER NEVADA ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB LOW AND APPROACHES
THE AREA. NAM AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LATE TODAY WITH IMPROVING 850-700MB MOISTURE
AND FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM AND
00Z GFS DO HOWEVER DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE LOCATION ON WHERE THE
BETTER FRONTOGENESIS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS CONVECTION CHANCES
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ARE EXPECTED BY LATE DAY BASED ON
THE 00Z NAM. CAPE VALUES WILL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000J/KG WITH 0-2.5KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM.
GIVEN THIS AND SOME LATE DAY FORCING DEVELOPING WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER LATER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH WHAT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SUGGESTED. WILL ALSO NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS FORECAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL AIDED BY LIFT
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT JET STREAK WITH ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE LOW BECAUSE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE
100KT UPPER-LEVEL JET, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB.

STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
HOWEVER, GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN, AND WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
RATHER COOL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AND 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE
BY MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST, WITH LEE TROUGHING AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES,
IT WAS DECIDED TO RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THOSE GIVEN BY THE
CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
BE TOO COOL. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

HAYS REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON 05Z ONGOING CONVECTION, TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM WATER VAPOR LOOP, RAP 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AND RAP MUCAPES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST BY 08Z AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS FRONT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT
AROUND 10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN KANSAS. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON 00Z NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. A FEW SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  58  76  61 /  30  60  60  50
GCK  79  56  75  59 /  40  50  50  40
EHA  83  55  76  58 /  40  50  40  30
LBL  85  57  77  60 /  30  50  60  40
HYS  78  56  74  59 /  30  40  40  40
P28  83  62  78  62 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 244 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A 250MB 55KT JET STREAK LOCATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER 50KT JET WAS
LOCATED IN THE BASED ON THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUD
TOPS WERE COOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM 00Z- 02Z. A 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 00Z AND AT THE
850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR BEHIND THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE WAS REFLECTED WELL BY THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WESTERN KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TREND AND INSERT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS NEEDED.

THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WAS
LOCATED OVER NEVADA ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB LOW AND APPROACHES
THE AREA. NAM AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LATE TODAY WITH IMPROVING 850-700MB MOISTURE
AND FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM AND
00Z GFS DO HOWEVER DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE LOCATION ON WHERE THE
BETTER FRONTOGENESIS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS CONVECTION CHANCES
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ARE EXPECTED BY LATE DAY BASED ON
THE 00Z NAM. CAPE VALUES WILL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000J/KG WITH 0-2.5KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM.
GIVEN THIS AND SOME LATE DAY FORCING DEVELOPING WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER LATER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH WHAT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SUGGESTED. WILL ALSO NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS FORECAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THURSDAY WILL START WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS, ALONG WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS
OUR CWA.  THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE WEST TO
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  THERE WILL BE A
BLANKET OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH LITTLE INSOLATION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY VARY FROM .02 TO .40 INCH. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER WAVE STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING
NORTH AND THEN SOUTH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL STILL BE IN THE 25 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE 60 TO 63 DEGREE RANGE. QPF
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAN IN THE WEST, DUE
TO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD
CROSS TO THE EAST OF US BY SATURDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
IN THE AREA. SO POPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN TO THE 20 PERCENT OR LESS RANGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT, JUST AS THAT ONE WAVE IS LEAVING OUR
AREA, ANOTHER RIPPLE WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN 20 PERCENT POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WEST, THEN SHIFTING TO 20
PERCENT POPS IN OUR EAST SUNDAY. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW WILL
STAY ANCHORED OVER THE COAST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE 7 DAY
PERIOD, THEN GET INGESTED INTO AN EVEN LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 3RD. BY
SUNDAY, I THINK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE H5 AND H7
LEVELS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THEREFORE, MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, DAYS 6 AND 7, WILL SEE AN
END TO PRECIPITATION AND A LOT MORE SUNSHINE AS WELL AS A WARM UP.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AND GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL COOL TO MONDAY MORNING
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SYRACUSE TO
WAKEENEY AREA, TO NEAR 54 DEGREES IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS. SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
THEN ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES, AND BY
TUESDAY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE BY TUESDAY MORNING TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

OVERALL, THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO
ABOUT 132HRS, OR 30/12Z AND WERE LEANED TOWARD MORE THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS MODEL IS FASTER WITH EXITING THE FIRST UPPER WAVE, WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM BOTH DRAG THIS UPPER FEATURE THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

HAYS REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON 05Z ONGOING CONVECTION, TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM WATER VAPOR LOOP, RAP 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AND RAP MUCAPES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST BY 08Z AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS FRONT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT
AROUND 10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN KANSAS. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON 00Z NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. A FEW SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  76  61 /  30  50  50  40
GCK  79  56  75  59 /  40  40  40  40
EHA  82  55  76  58 /  40  40  40  30
LBL  83  58  77  60 /  30  50  40  40
HYS  79  57  74  59 /  30  40  40  40
P28  83  63  78  62 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 150 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A 250MB 55KT JET STREAK LOCATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER 50KT JET WAS
LOCATED IN THE BASED ON THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY PLACES INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM 00Z-
02Z. A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 00Z
AND AT THE 850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND
NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE
OF OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR BEHIND THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE WAS REFLECTED WELL BY THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WESTERN KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TREND AND INSERT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS NEEDED.

THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WAS
LOCATED OVER NEVADA ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB LOW AND APPROACHES
THE AREA. NAM AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT PLACING SOUTHWEST
KANSAS NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET LATE TODAY WITH
IMPROVING 850-700MB MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS DO HOWEVER DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
THE LOCATION THE BETTER FRONTOGENESIS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS
CONVECTION CHANCES IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

BETTER 0-6KM SHEAR EXPECTED BY LATE DAY BASED ON THE 00Z NAM WITH
VALUES OF AROUND 40 KNOTS. CAPE VALUES WILL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000J/KG. GIVEN THIS AND SOME LATE DAY
FORCING DEVELOPING WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS GOING IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER LATER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH WHAT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SUGGESTED. WILL ALSO NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS FORECAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THURSDAY WILL START WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS, ALONG WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS
OUR CWA.  THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE WEST TO
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  THERE WILL BE A
BLANKET OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH LITTLE INSOLATION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY VARY FROM .02 TO .40 INCH. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER WAVE STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING
NORTH AND THEN SOUTH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL STILL BE IN THE 25 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE 60 TO 63 DEGREE RANGE. QPF
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAN IN THE WEST, DUE
TO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD
CROSS TO THE EAST OF US BY SATURDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
IN THE AREA. SO POPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN TO THE 20 PERCENT OR LESS RANGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT, JUST AS THAT ONE WAVE IS LEAVING OUR
AREA, ANOTHER RIPPLE WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN 20 PERCENT POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WEST, THEN SHIFTING TO 20
PERCENT POPS IN OUR EAST SUNDAY. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW WILL
STAY ANCHORED OVER THE COAST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE 7 DAY
PERIOD, THEN GET INGESTED INTO AN EVEN LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 3RD. BY
SUNDAY, I THINK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE H5 AND H7
LEVELS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THEREFORE, MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, DAYS 6 AND 7, WILL SEE AN
END TO PRECIPITATION AND A LOT MORE SUNSHINE AS WELL AS A WARM UP.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AND GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL COOL TO MONDAY MORNING
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SYRACUSE TO
WAKEENEY AREA, TO NEAR 54 DEGREES IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS. SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
THEN ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES, AND BY
TUESDAY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE BY TUESDAY MORNING TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

OVERALL, THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO
ABOUT 132HRS, OR 30/12Z AND WERE LEANED TOWARD MORE THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS MODEL IS FASTER WITH EXITING THE FIRST UPPER WAVE, WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM BOTH DRAG THIS UPPER FEATURE THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

HAYS REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON 05Z ONGOING CONVECTION, TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM WATER VAPOR LOOP, RAP 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AND RAP MUCAPES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST BY 08Z AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS FRONT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT
AROUND 10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN KANSAS. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON 00Z NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. A FEW SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  76  61 /  30  50  50  40
GCK  79  56  75  59 /  40  40  40  40
EHA  82  55  76  58 /  40  40  40  30
LBL  83  58  77  60 /  30  50  40  40
HYS  79  57  74  59 /  30  40  40  40
P28  83  63  78  62 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1220 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A 250MB 55KT JET STREAK LOCATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANOTHER 50KT JET WAS
LOCATED IN THE BASED ON THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY PLACES INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM 00Z-
02Z. A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 00Z
AND AT THE 850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND
NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE
OF OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND CAPE COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TONIGHT IN
THE EAST PART OF THE FA FROM SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE LODGE NEAR AND
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS IN BARBER COUNTY
WITH THE HIGHEST CAPE FIELDS, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, ISENTROPIC
LIFT, AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING, COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER
TONIGHT AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AS
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S, EXPECT WARMER ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOW
80S. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THURSDAY WILL START WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS, ALONG WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS
OUR CWA.  THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE WEST TO
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  THERE WILL BE A
BLANKET OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH LITTLE INSOLATION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY VARY FROM .02 TO .40 INCH. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER WAVE STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING
NORTH AND THEN SOUTH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL STILL BE IN THE 25 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE 60 TO 63 DEGREE RANGE. QPF
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAN IN THE WEST, DUE
TO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD
CROSS TO THE EAST OF US BY SATURDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
IN THE AREA. SO POPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN TO THE 20 PERCENT OR LESS RANGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT, JUST AS THAT ONE WAVE IS LEAVING OUR
AREA, ANOTHER RIPPLE WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN 20 PERCENT POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WEST, THEN SHIFTING TO 20
PERCENT POPS IN OUR EAST SUNDAY. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW WILL
STAY ANCHORED OVER THE COAST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE 7 DAY
PERIOD, THEN GET INGESTED INTO AN EVEN LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 3RD. BY
SUNDAY, I THINK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE H5 AND H7
LEVELS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THEREFORE, MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, DAYS 6 AND 7, WILL SEE AN
END TO PRECIPITATION AND A LOT MORE SUNSHINE AS WELL AS A WARM UP.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AND GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL COOL TO MONDAY MORNING
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SYRACUSE TO
WAKEENEY AREA, TO NEAR 54 DEGREES IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS. SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
THEN ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES, AND BY
TUESDAY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE BY TUESDAY MORNING TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

OVERALL, THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO
ABOUT 132HRS, OR 30/12Z AND WERE LEANED TOWARD MORE THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS MODEL IS FASTER WITH EXITING THE FIRST UPPER WAVE, WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM BOTH DRAG THIS UPPER FEATURE THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

HAYS REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON 05Z ONGOING CONVECTION, TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM WATER VAPOR LOOP, RAP 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AND RAP MUCAPES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST BY 08Z AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS FRONT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT
AROUND 10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN KANSAS. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON 00Z NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. A FEW SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  76  61  73 /  50  50  40  40
GCK  56  75  59  71 /  40  40  40  30
EHA  55  76  58  74 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  58  77  60  73 /  50  40  40  40
HYS  57  74  59  71 /  40  40  40  40
P28  63  78  62  75 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1211 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM - THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z INDICATED THAT A RATHER WELL DEFINED SURFACE
LOW OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NEAR
THE BORDER OF THE TWO STATES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS A
REMNANT OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH CAUSED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...IS CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MORE SPECIFICALLY ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
GARNETT KS TO WELLINGTON KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE WINDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE
OUT OF THE E-NE...WHILE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE MORE FROM THE SW. THESE PARALLEL AND OPPOSING WINDS ARE NOT
CREATING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AT THE MOMENT TO GET LOW LEVEL UPWARD
MOTION. HOWEVER AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD SURFACE WINDS MAY BACK A
LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWS MOVEMENT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INDICATE THAT A STOUT LOW/MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. AT THAT TIME CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THAT BOUNDARY. FURTHER ENHANCING CONVECTION
POTENTIAL IS DECENT 850 MB CONVERGENCE AS SW 850 MB WINDS AT 20 TO
30 KTS NOSE INTO SLIGHTLY SLOWER 850 MB WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD COME LATER ON TONIGHT AS
A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRUISES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE BACKED THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SHIFT
NORTHWARD...CAUSING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE TO
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP MESOANALYSIS
AT 18Z SHOWS THAT AROUND 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THAT BOUNDARY INDICATING THAT ANY UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO GET
GOING WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. UPDRAFTS
WILL ALSO HAVE AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH...SO SOME
UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZED. CLOUD BASES MAY BE IN THE 5 KFT
TO 6 KFT RANGE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR BELOW THE
CLOUD LAYER...SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT AREA EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE.

WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A CONTINUATION OF TUESDAY NIGHTS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGHER END POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING IN
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

JL

MID TERM - WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL VARY A BIT BASED ON TIMING OF
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MINOR NORTH TO SOUTH FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAK TROUGHS
AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENTS IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE REMAINS
RATHER DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS TIME...BUT IT CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN THEN...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT
SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THAN IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT. THE SHORT
WAVE SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY WANES WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SOME LOCAL MAXIMA IN
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A RESULT OF PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY
HIGH... THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...
AND STORM MOTIONS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT TRAINING ALONG OR
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EVEN WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...
FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE SOIL CONDITIONS...
STREAM BASE FLOW LEVELS...AND AVAILABLE WATER STORAGE IN AREA
LAKES AND PONDS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SO LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BARJENBRUCH

LONG TERM - SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WHILE THE LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN
OVERALL FLOW SOLUTIONS...THE EXPECTED RESULT IS THE SAME AND A
PERIOD OF DRY STABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF A RATHER PERSISTENT BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A SET UP FOR SPRINKLES AT BEST AND HAVE NOT BROUGHT PRECIP
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 50 ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD OWING TO NEARLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
THE OCCASIONAL PRESENCE OF CLOUDS VERSUS CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT COULD IMPACT LOWS...BUT THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL AT THIS
TIME POINTING TO ANY NIGHTS BEING PARTICULARLY CLEAR AND COLD.

BARJENBRUCH


&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MCS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY KEPT AN MVFR
TEMPO GROUP IN THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 07Z...BUT EXPECT THE MCS TO
THEN SHIFT MORE EAST THAN NORTHWARD AND WILL END THE VCTS GROUP AT
08-10Z...THEN DRY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
WITH ONLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL AC. LIGHT VRB WINDS NEAR
CONVECTION WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AFT 09Z AT LESS THAN 10
KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 650 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH RAINFALL THUS FAR LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE GENERALLY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER WRN KY...DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE CWA...WITH
RESIDUAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND
PREDOMINANTLY AFFECTING AREAS OVER NERN KY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
ALL OF THIS WELL IN HAND...AND GENERALLY ONLY NEEDED MINOR MASSAGING
TO THE TEMP AND DEW PT CURVES HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
METMOS APPEARS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE TEMP/DEW PT REGIME
ATTM...AND IS HINTING AT SOME TYPICAL ERN KY PATCHY VALLEY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN...SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS/KY 80 CORRIDOR WHERE CLEARER SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT...AND
FRESH ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS ACROSS NORTHERN
KY. A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAS BEEN MOVING ENE THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY...AND THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY AS THE PRIMARY FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FOCUS OF THE REPEATED RAINS
WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF FORECAST AREA. HPC HAS
PLACED THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS
OF THE 75TH PERCENTILE...BUT NOT TO BECOME TOO EXCESSIVE WITH PW
GETTING UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. NONE THE LESS IF THE THE REPEATED RAINS
SET UP FURTHER SOUTH THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HOWEVER FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR AREA LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY
AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IF DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTION NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO IS
MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS IS PICKED
UP ON BY THE HRRR.

LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PER THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER SINCE
CONVECTION DID NOT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE DECREASING. IT APPEARS WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR THE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MO TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER
BASED ON LATEST HRRR SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TO START THE EXTENDED FCST. A SLOWLY
SAGGING TROF EXTENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. PCPN
IN THE FORM OF WAVES TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE FORCES THE FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY QUICKER IN CLEARING OUT THE PCPN. HAVE
CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THIS TREND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALIZES BETTER IN THIS RUN. THIS PLACES CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH 30S IN THE NORTH AND 50S SOUTH ON FRI.
FRI NITE AND SAT SHOWS CLEARING IN THE NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTH FOLLOWED ON SAT NITE WITH NO POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DRY
WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS HIGH EXTENDS WEST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND CUTS OFF ANY
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. HENCE THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP AS THE
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN WITH THE PLAINS HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 70S ON FRI BUT
DROP TO THE UPPER 60S WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SAT. THEN AS THE
FRONT EASES SOUTH LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
ON SUN AND CONTINUE CLIMBING SLOWLY TO THE MID 70S AGAIN BY WED.
LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S WITH MONDAY MORNING THE
COOLEST AS THE MERCURY SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHICH
IS ACROSS NORTHERN KY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IS NOT LIKELY...AND AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT ANY CEILINGS AT THE TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
HAVING MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...SBH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 310 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS ACROSS NORTHERN
KY. A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAS BEEN MOVING ENE THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY...AND THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY AS THE PRIMARY FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FOCUS OF THE REPEATED RAINS
WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF FORECAST AREA. HPC HAS
PLACED THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS
OF THE 75TH PERCENTILE...BUT NOT TO BECOME TOO EXCESSIVE WITH PW
GETTING UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. NONE THE LESS IF THE THE REPEATED RAINS
SET UP FURTHER SOUTH THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HOWEVER FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR AREA LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY
AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IF DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTION NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO IS
MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS IS PICKED
UP ON BY THE HRRR.

LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PER THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER SINCE
CONVECTION DID NOT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE DECREASING. IT APPEARS WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR THE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MO TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER
BASED ON LATEST HRRR SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TO START THE EXTENDED FCST. A SLOWLY
SAGGING TROF EXTENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. PCPN
IN THE FORM OF WAVES TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE FORCES THE FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY QUICKER IN CLEARING OUT THE PCPN. HAVE
CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THIS TREND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALIZES BETTER IN THIS RUN. THIS PLACES CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH 30S IN THE NORTH AND 50S SOUTH ON FRI.
FRI NITE AND SAT SHOWS CLEARING IN THE NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTH FOLLOWED ON SAT NITE WITH NO POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DRY
WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS HIGH EXTENDS WEST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND CUTS OFF ANY
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. HENCE THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP AS THE
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN WITH THE PLAINS HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 70S ON FRI BUT
DROP TO THE UPPER 60S WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SAT. THEN AS THE
FRONT EASES SOUTH LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
ON SUN AND CONTINUE CLIMBING SLOWLY TO THE MID 70S AGAIN BY WED.
LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S WITH MONDAY MORNING THE
COOLEST AS THE MERCURY SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHICH
IS ACROSS NORTHERN KY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IS NOT LIKELY...AND AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT ANY CEILINGS AT THE TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
HAVING MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...SBH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 151 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CU ALONG
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
HOUR AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY. HAVE REMOVED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A
MOUNT VERNON TO SANDY HOOK LINE.

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY
AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

WILL BE UPDATING NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BY 1140 AM EDT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. BOUNDARY
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE FROM NEAR HUNTINGTON WV TO SOUTH OF MOREHEAD TO
SOUTH OF MOUNT STERLING. SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS IS HINTED AT IN THE HRRR.
HOWEVER FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING. THIS IDEA IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR AND HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY
NDFD ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS TO DEPICT CURRENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS ABOUT TO IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT IN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY...RANGING
FROM 100 PERCENT IN THE FAR NORTH TO 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTH. SPC
HAS ALSO PLACED THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HAVE UPDATED THE HWO
AS WELL FOR THIS. THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT
CLOUD DEBRIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE CONVECTION INITIATE ON BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED AS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MORE SUN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
THE 06 GMT NAM BUFFER SOUNDING IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS THE
PREVIOUS RUN. WILL STICK WITH THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE
HWO VERSUS SEVERE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
STILL THE THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ONCE
THEY FIRE UP...THEN A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
JUICIEST AIR IS STILL IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN FEATURE BEING A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE PUSHING THE FRONTS SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE ARE REALLY TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT
WE ARE DEALING WITH. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE WEAK FRONT
GENERALLY RUNNING ALONG I 64. AS THIS FRONT IS PUSHES SOUTH IS WILL
FALL APART AND FRONTALYSE. ON THURSDAY A SECOND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ONCE AGAIN WILL FALL APART AS IT
DOES. WITH THESE WEAK BOUNDARIES IN THE MIX...THE WEATHER WILL STAY
UNSETTLED. WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA. AT 4PM...THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDING OVER JACKSON IS SHOWING TOTAL
TOTALS OF 55 AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7. THE CAPE...WHICH MEASURES THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM IS AN IMPRESSIVE 2381 JOULES. ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. ONE OF THE COMPLICATING FACTORS IS ALL OF THE DEBRIS THAT IS
LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS ACTIVITY THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER NIGHT. THE
RADAR IS SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
THE BLUEGRASS AROUND 53O AM THIS MORNING. THIS DEBRIS WILL RETARD THE
HEATING AND LESSEN THE INSTABILITY. AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BECAUSE THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORCING AND ALSO
HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH LACK THE FORCING.
SINCE THERE IS NOT MUCH TURNING IN THE WINDS...THE BIGGEST THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
WOULD BE PRETTY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

THE LONG TERM MODELS START OFF IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DRAPING A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. BOTH MODELS THEN HAVE THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKES IT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRING DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. THIS AIR MASS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF FALL LIKE WEATHER
TO THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 70S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHICH
IS ACROSS NORTHERN KY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IS NOT LIKELY...AND AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT ANY CEILINGS AT THE TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
HAVING MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SBH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 144 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Updated at 1215 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2012

Complex of storms moving east through southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky continues to weaken as it moves into a less favorable
environment.  Had mostly sub-severe hail reported this evening as a
stable layer at the sfc prevented severe winds aloft from mixing
down.  Had max wind reports of 30-40 mph.  Expect convection to
remain elevated through the early morning hours but we will see some
moderate to at times heavy rains over southern Indiana with multiple
waves causing a line of showers/t-storms all the way back through
KS/OK.  Thus, will continue to monitor for may some small hail
overnight, but the main threat will be flooding issues.  Have
already issued a flood advisory for portions of Dubois, Orange,
Washington, and Clark Counties in Indiana due to training storms
that occurred earlier this evening.

Tweaked 60% POPs a little farther south with this update to better
line up with this complex. Updated products out shortly.

&&

.Short Term (This afternoon through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2012

Morning convective complex continues to head eastward through the
coal fields of eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Satellite and
surface observations reveal clearing skies to the west of our area.
Areas west of I-65 have already cleared out and temperatures are on
the way up.  Further east, mid-high level cloud debris remain, but
some clearing is expected to occur by late afternoon and early
evening in those areas.  Dry conditions are expected for the
remainder of the afternoon as the atmosphere recovers from this
morning`s storminess.  Temperatures will increase this afternoon as
the sun comes back out, but we will not have much time to work with
to get readings all that high. Still think that we`ll see maximum
temperature readings in the mid-upper 70s in the far west with upper
60s-lower 70s in the central and mid-upper 60s in the east.

Later this afternoon and evening, the deterministic NCEP models all
agree on redeveloping convection along a frontal boundary draped to
our north/northwest.  While the atmosphere over south-central
Indiana and much of north-central Kentucky has been convectively
overturned, the atmosphere across western/southwestern Kentucky has
largely been undisturbed.  High resolution model runs from the
LMK-WRF, SPC WRF, the RAP, and the HRRR all show increasing
instability across southern IL, eastern MO, and western Kentucky
this afternoon.  Model proximity soundings generally show an
elevated mixed layer atop a fairly moist near-surface layer.  Wind
fields are sheared in both speed and direction and strong lapse
rates aloft should promote vigorous convective development along
and ahead of this front.  Severe convection is likely to our west
this evening and tonight, but is highly questionable across the LMK
forecast area due to this morning`s convection.

Current thinking is that we`ll see a line of convection develop to
our northwest this evening and then slide toward the Ohio River
later tonight.  As this line encounters our worked over airmass,
we`ll likely see the convection continue, since the wind shear is
fairly decent and we`ll have instability aloft.  The near surface
environment looks to remain largely stable, so any storms that we
see would likely result in torrential rains, some hail and quite a
bit of cloud to ground lightning.  The remnants of this line may
transverse southward into southern Kentucky late tonight, but
instability and wind shear support may decay before the line gets
that far south.  Therefore, the highest chances of precipitation
look to be across southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky
with lesser chances as one heads southward toward the Tennessee
border. Lows tonight will be milder with readings only cooling into
the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Slow moving frontal boundary will only drift southward during the
day on Wednesday and likely become quasi-stationary by Wednesday
afternoon.  Multiple mid-level impulses will transverse the region
resulting in multiple clusters of convection moving across the
region.  In general, the highest probabilities of precipitation for
Wednesday favor southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with lesser
probabilities as one gets down toward the KY/TN border.  Overall
convective evolution is very uncertain given the complex mesoscale
processes involved and where boundaries may lay.  It is likely that
one or more MCS`s may develop and propagate eastward during the day
and into the evening hours.  Severe threat is there with damaging
winds and large hail being the most likely threats.  Temperatures
will be tricky, but we have stuck close to the weighted-model
average which results in upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north
with lower 80s across the south.   The latest datasets do show some
forecast convergence on a wave approaching the area tomorrow evening
which results in increasing PoP chances for Wednesday night with
this forecast issuance.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2012

Thursday through Friday...

Quasi-stationary front will remain draped east to west across the
Ohio Valley, with a series of upper disturbances riding along it in
zonal flow. Expect intervals of showers and thunderstorms, but these
will be as hard to time as the individual disturbances, so forecast
confidence is quite low.

Path of least regret at this time is to carry chance POPs for most
of the period. As timing becomes more clear on any of the upper
impulses, the POP forecast may be better refined. Temps will run
near normal by day, and above normal by night with abundant cloud
cover. Still plenty of bust potential as any longer episodes of
precip could really limit the diurnal ranges.

Friday night through Tuesday...

Sharp upper trough will dig into eastern Canada and the Great Lakes,
and help to push the front farther south over the weekend. Precip
chances will be suppressed farther into south-central Kentucky
through Saturday night, and then south of the area Sunday into early
next week. Model consensus is coming together with each successive
run, so this is a higher-confidence forecast than Thu-Fri. More of a
polar air mass will knock temperatures slightly below normal, with
highs in the lower/mid 70s and lows in the lower/mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2012

With at least 3 MCVs lined up from southern Indiana to southern
Illinois, waves of convection will continue to affect SDF/LEX early
this morning.  Looks like BWG should stay well south the line of
convection.  Although the strongest convection has passed, SDF/LEX
can expect to see periodic t-storms with gusty winds up to 20-25kts
and moderate to heavy rainfall which may reduce vsbys briefly for
the next 2-4 hrs.  Will monitor closely and add a tempo MVFR group
for vsby if a strong t-storm looks to impact a TAF site.

All TAF sites should see LLWS outside of any t-storms early this
morning due to a strong LLJ developing.  Winds at 1.8 kft should be
220/40kts.  LLWS should cease after sunrise as the LLJ decreases.
Sfc winds out of the SW may be a bit gusty this morning after
sunrise around 18-20kts according to Bufkit soundings.

The next convective wave should impact the area some time this
afternoon.  The majority of hi-res models indicate that the TAF
sites would most likely be affected during the late
afternoon/evening hours with SDF/LEX having the best chances again.
Will include a VCSH at BWG since some models do indicate a little
more southward development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........AMS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AMS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1220 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.Forecast Update...
Updated at 1215 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2012

Complex of storms moving east through southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky continues to weaken as it moves into a less favorable
environment.  Had mostly sub-severe hail reported this evening as a
stable layer at the sfc prevented severe winds aloft from mixing
down.  Had max wind reports of 30-40 mph.  Expect convection to
remain elevated through the early morning hours but we will see some
moderate to at times heavy rains over southern Indiana with multiple
waves causing a line of showers/t-storms all the way back through
KS/OK.  Thus, will continue to monitor for may some small hail
overnight, but the main threat will be flooding issues.  Have
already issued a flood advisory for portions of Dubois, Orange,
Washington, and Clark Counties in Indiana due to training storms
that occurred earlier this evening.

Tweaked 60% POPs a little farther south with this update to better
line up with this complex. Updated products out shortly.

&&

.Short Term (This afternoon through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2012

Morning convective complex continues to head eastward through the
coal fields of eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Satellite and
surface observations reveal clearing skies to the west of our area.
Areas west of I-65 have already cleared out and temperatures are on
the way up.  Further east, mid-high level cloud debris remain, but
some clearing is expected to occur by late afternoon and early
evening in those areas.  Dry conditions are expected for the
remainder of the afternoon as the atmosphere recovers from this
morning`s storminess.  Temperatures will increase this afternoon as
the sun comes back out, but we will not have much time to work with
to get readings all that high. Still think that we`ll see maximum
temperature readings in the mid-upper 70s in the far west with upper
60s-lower 70s in the central and mid-upper 60s in the east.

Later this afternoon and evening, the deterministic NCEP models all
agree on redeveloping convection along a frontal boundary draped to
our north/northwest.  While the atmosphere over south-central
Indiana and much of north-central Kentucky has been convectively
overturned, the atmosphere across western/southwestern Kentucky has
largely been undisturbed.  High resolution model runs from the
LMK-WRF, SPC WRF, the RAP, and the HRRR all show increasing
instability across southern IL, eastern MO, and western Kentucky
this afternoon.  Model proximity soundings generally show an
elevated mixed layer atop a fairly moist near-surface layer.  Wind
fields are sheared in both speed and direction and strong lapse
rates aloft should promote vigorous convective development along
and ahead of this front.  Severe convection is likely to our west
this evening and tonight, but is highly questionable across the LMK
forecast area due to this morning`s convection.

Current thinking is that we`ll see a line of convection develop to
our northwest this evening and then slide toward the Ohio River
later tonight.  As this line encounters our worked over airmass,
we`ll likely see the convection continue, since the wind shear is
fairly decent and we`ll have instability aloft.  The near surface
environment looks to remain largely stable, so any storms that we
see would likely result in torrential rains, some hail and quite a
bit of cloud to ground lightning.  The remnants of this line may
transverse southward into southern Kentucky late tonight, but
instability and wind shear support may decay before the line gets
that far south.  Therefore, the highest chances of precipitation
look to be across southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky
with lesser chances as one heads southward toward the Tennessee
border. Lows tonight will be milder with readings only cooling into
the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Slow moving frontal boundary will only drift southward during the
day on Wednesday and likely become quasi-stationary by Wednesday
afternoon.  Multiple mid-level impulses will transverse the region
resulting in multiple clusters of convection moving across the
region.  In general, the highest probabilities of precipitation for
Wednesday favor southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with lesser
probabilities as one gets down toward the KY/TN border.  Overall
convective evolution is very uncertain given the complex mesoscale
processes involved and where boundaries may lay.  It is likely that
one or more MCS`s may develop and propagate eastward during the day
and into the evening hours.  Severe threat is there with damaging
winds and large hail being the most likely threats.  Temperatures
will be tricky, but we have stuck close to the weighted-model
average which results in upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north
with lower 80s across the south.   The latest datasets do show some
forecast convergence on a wave approaching the area tomorrow evening
which results in increasing PoP chances for Wednesday night with
this forecast issuance.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2012

Thursday through Friday...

Quasi-stationary front will remain draped east to west across the
Ohio Valley, with a series of upper disturbances riding along it in
zonal flow. Expect intervals of showers and thunderstorms, but these
will be as hard to time as the individual disturbances, so forecast
confidence is quite low.

Path of least regret at this time is to carry chance POPs for most
of the period. As timing becomes more clear on any of the upper
impulses, the POP forecast may be better refined. Temps will run
near normal by day, and above normal by night with abundant cloud
cover. Still plenty of bust potential as any longer episodes of
precip could really limit the diurnal ranges.

Friday night through Tuesday...

Sharp upper trough will dig into eastern Canada and the Great Lakes,
and help to push the front farther south over the weekend. Precip
chances will be suppressed farther into south-central Kentucky
through Saturday night, and then south of the area Sunday into early
next week. Model consensus is coming together with each successive
run, so this is a higher-confidence forecast than Thu-Fri. More of a
polar air mass will knock temperatures slightly below normal, with
highs in the lower/mid 70s and lows in the lower/mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2012

Showers and thunderstorms along a front in southern Indiana will
slowly sink south overnight. This activity has been very slow to
shift southward and have therefore pushed back the timing of VCTS at
SDF and LEX. This activity still looks like it will stay to the
north of BWG both tonight and through much of tomorrow. Will
therefore keep any mention of precipitation out of that TAF. There
will likely be a lull in the rain tomorrow morning until another
upper level disturbance crosses the area tomorrow afternoon,
bringing another round of showers and storms to SDF and LEX.

Winds will decrease to around 6-8 knots overnight out of the south
to southwest. A LLJ will strengthen towards midnight and pivot
across the area. Winds will increase to around 40 knots at 1800-2000
ft. Surface winds will once again increase and become gusty tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........AMS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........EER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

 941 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT
OVER U.S. HIGHWAY 70 IN SE OK AND SW AR. SO LOOKING AT THE NEXT 6
HRS...WE HAVE LESSER COVERAGE IN THE 6 TO 12Z GRID AND HAVE
ELECTED TO PULL THAT BACK INTO THE CURRENT TIME FRAME TO LIMIT
CHANGES IN WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT AND CHANCE COVERAGE.
NEW RAP MODEL INITIALIZED WELL AND TRENDED DOWN COVERAGE FOR
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
SHOWN AFTER 6Z...BUT WITH A WEAK COOL POOL AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA WILL KEEP POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO
LOWS...BUT WE MAY NEED TO THIN SOME CLOUDINESS TO GET THERE. NEW
ZONES OUT SHORTLY. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 FROM 28/11Z TO 28/15Z...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME VARIABLE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS QUITE MESSY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST HAS DRIFTED INTO CO...WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO MT...AND YET ANOTHER MORE-
DEFINED UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD INTO NRN ONTARIO. CONVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM W TX...
ACROSS CENTRAL OK...AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE
SKIRTING NRN MCCURTAIN CO. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A GOOD MOISTURE
CONNECTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
MEXICO...ACROSS INTO OK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NRN U.S. PUSH THE
FRONT SWD ACROSS TX/AR. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
FRONT...SETTING UP A POTENTIAL TRAINING SITUATION...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP IN PLACE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATEST QPF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TX...BUT SHOULD BRING SOME
DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS INTO OUR REGION AS WELL. THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOES...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ON
THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECTING THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST. RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS WE
MOVE INTO TUESDAY...KEEPING US STATUS QUO WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS
TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH 28/24Z...WITH ONLY A COUPLE MINOR EXCEPTIONS. MVFR FOG MAY
OCCUR AT ISOLATED TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM 28/11Z TO
28/15Z. ALSO...VFR CIGS IN THE 4 KFT TO 6 KFT LEVEL COULD OCCUR AT
ANY TAF SITE BRIEFLY FROM 28/10Z TO 28/16Z FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WANDER INTO THE NORTH PART
OF THE FOUR STATE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE FOUR STATE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  91  69  82  63 /  10  20  30  60  40
MLU  67  90  68  82  63 /  10  20  30  60  40
DEQ  66  87  66  79  61 /  30  40  50  60  20
TXK  68  88  67  80  61 /  20  20  40  60  40
ELD  65  88  66  80  60 /  10  20  30  60  40
TYR  69  88  70  79  62 /  10  20  50  60  40
GGG  68  88  69  80  62 /  10  20  50  60  40
LFK  69  91  72  81  66 /  10  20  50  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 1031 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND
STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. BOUNDARY IS DE-MARKED ON THE REGIONAL
RADAR LOOPS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NW PA.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE ARE NOTED OVER WV AND THE FAR WEST CWFA.

MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE...WITH AROUND
1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. EARLIER CLOUDS THINNED OUT A BIT
THIS MORNING BEHIND A SHORTWAVE...AND HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST LOCALES. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES...A
30 TO 40 KT LLJ AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALL COMBINE TO HELP
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
LATEST RUNS OF HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 2 PM.

COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SAGS TO THE
SOUTH...MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION MAY FOCUS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHERN VIRGINIA
LATE TONIGHT...SO POPS WILL INCREASE SOME WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THE POP DISTRIBUTION MAY REVERSE ON THURSDAY WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION PERIODICALLY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY...SHOULD AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE
SWINGING EASTWARD. LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM -2 TO -4 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME FROM THE NORTH AS
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT
IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST COULD INDUCE STRONGER
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...WE WONT PLAY THOSE WINDS UP TOO MUCH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODELS FLIP-FLOPPING ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY
AND IMPACT THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IN
COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND ISO/SCT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP/MOVE
WAS LOW...SO NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
AND STALLS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE EFFICIENTLY
CHANNELLING UP THE BAY FOR AROUND 20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...AS DOES THE SCA. COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT/LESS WIND WILL PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A SCA ON THURSDAY.

A NORTHEAST WIND WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE WITH THE FRONT SAGGING JUST
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 133 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING SW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LKS FROM NRN QUEBEC. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR. AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MOVE ACROSS
WRN LK SUPERIOR...BUT ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE OVER LAND.
FARTHER EAST...A FEW AREAS OF LK ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING OVER THE MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. THESE
HAVE BEEN DRIFTING MORE TO THE S OVER TIME AS 8Z KMQT VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING MORE NNW WINDS ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS LINE UP WELL
WITH MODEL INDICATED POCKET OF DEEPEST MOISTURE.

THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SSE UNDER THE NNW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE FOCUSED OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FOR A WHILE THIS EARLY MORNING...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY DIVES SE OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO
EXIT AND BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AS H500 HEIGHTS ARE ON THE
RISE. AS FOR CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY NEAR LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA UNDER DIURNAL HEATING BY
MID DAY. THEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
HOLD IN THE AFTN AND DIMINISH THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER ERN UPPER MI
/TOWARDS EARLY EVENING/. H850 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL SHIFTS...APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD FROST/FREEZE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND PRODUCE CLEAR
SKIES OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN UPPER MI /LINGERING LK EFFECT
CLOUDS/. PWATS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S OVER MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR WEST FELL INTO THE UPPER
20S. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER DECENT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH COULD EVEN EFFECT AREAS CLOSE TO THE GREAT LKS
SHORELINES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

TEHRE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CURRENT TROF OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE DROPPING SE AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT LATE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY.
MORE ON THAT LATER. FORTUNATELY...THE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS DOESN`T
IMPACT THE PCPN FCST. THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE INTO/THRU THE
WEEKEND TRANSITION TO LARGER DIFFERENCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VARYING BTWN NW AND WSW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN FOR
UPPER MI. TEMP FCST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPENCIES...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL IN GENERAL.

BEGINNING THU...ALTHOUGH ERN TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
OUT...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD FAR NRN ONTARIO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODEST WAA PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THU. MODELS SHOW
A DRY COLUMN...SO PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN WITH THE WAA. IN FACT...THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR. WAA
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LWR 60S PER MIXING TO AROUND
850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS.

AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SE...PASSING OVER THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY
FRI...A VERY WEAK SFC TROF WILL SINK S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MAIN
DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO THE NE AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA...PCPN IS NOT AN ISSUE. 850MB TEMPS TO START THE DAY FRI
ARE 4-6C HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. MIXING TO AROUND 850MB YIELDS
MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY...SO HELD TEMPS GENERALLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY FRI GETS LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER SE CANADA IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING ERN TROF. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BROADENING
MIDLEVEL LOW...THE HEIGHT RISES TO THE N END UP PUSHING SYSTEM S OR
SW. 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT BAD WITH THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE BTWN WRN LWR MI
(GLOBAL GEM) AND NW PA/WRN NY SUN (GFS). AT THIS POINT...THE
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T
IMPACT FCST SIGNIFICANTLY. GIVEN THE DRY ORIGINATION OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE TO FULLY ENTRAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC...PCPN SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN HERE. LOCATION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN AFFECT ON TEMPS. THE FARTHER W GLOBAL
GEM SOLUTION WOULD BRING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE
FOR SUN (850MB TEMPS 3C E TO 5C W) WHILE THE FARTHER E GFS SOLUTION
WOULD MAINTAIN WARMER WEATHER THRU SUN (850MB TEMPS 4C E TO 10C W).
GIVEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS OF RECENT DAYS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS FCST UNTIL LOCATION OF MID LEVEL LOW IS
BETTER AGREED UPON. END RESULT IS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THIS
WEEKEND.

ECWMF/GFS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH
MODELS HAVE VARIED FROM HAVING A RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NW AND NW FLOW
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TO A TROF IN THE PACIFIC NW AND WSW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. FOR THE MOMENT...THE 00Z RUNS FAVOR NW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WHICH RESULTS IN A SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT PASSING MON
AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TUE. ONLY INCLUDED A SCHC OF -SHRA MON WITH
FIRST SHORTWAVE. TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70F.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

SHORTWAVE AND GOOD AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA. SOME LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED VCSH NEAR
KSAW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS BEST MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM TAF
SITE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...KEEPING WINDS CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING TAF PERIOD THEN IS THE EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CU THAT HAS SET UP
ACROSS UPPER MI AND NORTHERN MN. THOUGH FORECAST MODELS HAD ALL TAF
SITES CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING BELOW VFR. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

HIGH PRES/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
UNDER 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 749 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING SW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LKS FROM NRN QUEBEC. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR. AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MOVE ACROSS
WRN LK SUPERIOR...BUT ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE OVER LAND.
FARTHER EAST...A FEW AREAS OF LK ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING OVER THE MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. THESE
HAVE BEEN DRIFTING MORE TO THE S OVER TIME AS 8Z KMQT VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING MORE NNW WINDS ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS LINE UP WELL
WITH MODEL INDICATED POCKET OF DEEPEST MOISTURE.

THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SSE UNDER THE NNW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE FOCUSED OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FOR A WHILE THIS EARLY MORNING...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY DIVES SE OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO
EXIT AND BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AS H500 HEIGHTS ARE ON THE
RISE. AS FOR CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY NEAR LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA UNDER DIURNAL HEATING BY
MID DAY. THEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
HOLD IN THE AFTN AND DIMINISH THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER ERN UPPER MI
/TOWARDS EARLY EVENING/. H850 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL SHIFTS...APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD FROST/FREEZE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND PRODUCE CLEAR
SKIES OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN UPPER MI /LINGERING LK EFFECT
CLOUDS/. PWATS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S OVER MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR WEST FELL INTO THE UPPER
20S. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER DECENT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH COULD EVEN EFFECT AREAS CLOSE TO THE GREAT LKS
SHORELINES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

TEHRE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CURRENT TROF OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE DROPPING SE AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT LATE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY.
MORE ON THAT LATER. FORTUNATELY...THE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS DOESN`T
IMPACT THE PCPN FCST. THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE INTO/THRU THE
WEEKEND TRANSITION TO LARGER DIFFERENCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VARYING BTWN NW AND WSW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN FOR
UPPER MI. TEMP FCST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPENCIES...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL IN GENERAL.

BEGINNING THU...ALTHOUGH ERN TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
OUT...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD FAR NRN ONTARIO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODEST WAA PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THU. MODELS SHOW
A DRY COLUMN...SO PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN WITH THE WAA. IN FACT...THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR. WAA
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LWR 60S PER MIXING TO AROUND
850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS.

AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SE...PASSING OVER THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY
FRI...A VERY WEAK SFC TROF WILL SINK S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MAIN
DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO THE NE AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA...PCPN IS NOT AN ISSUE. 850MB TEMPS TO START THE DAY FRI
ARE 4-6C HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. MIXING TO AROUND 850MB YIELDS
MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY...SO HELD TEMPS GENERALLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY FRI GETS LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER SE CANADA IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING ERN TROF. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BROADENING
MIDLEVEL LOW...THE HEIGHT RISES TO THE N END UP PUSHING SYSTEM S OR
SW. 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT BAD WITH THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE BTWN WRN LWR MI
(GLOBAL GEM) AND NW PA/WRN NY SUN (GFS). AT THIS POINT...THE
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T
IMPACT FCST SIGNIFICANTLY. GIVEN THE DRY ORIGINATION OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE TO FULLY ENTRAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC...PCPN SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN HERE. LOCATION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN AFFECT ON TEMPS. THE FARTHER W GLOBAL
GEM SOLUTION WOULD BRING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE
FOR SUN (850MB TEMPS 3C E TO 5C W) WHILE THE FARTHER E GFS SOLUTION
WOULD MAINTAIN WARMER WEATHER THRU SUN (850MB TEMPS 4C E TO 10C W).
GIVEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS OF RECENT DAYS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS FCST UNTIL LOCATION OF MID LEVEL LOW IS
BETTER AGREED UPON. END RESULT IS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THIS
WEEKEND.

ECWMF/GFS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH
MODELS HAVE VARIED FROM HAVING A RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NW AND NW FLOW
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TO A TROF IN THE PACIFIC NW AND WSW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. FOR THE MOMENT...THE 00Z RUNS FAVOR NW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WHICH RESULTS IN A SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT PASSING MON
AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TUE. ONLY INCLUDED A SCHC OF -SHRA MON WITH
FIRST SHORTWAVE. TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70F.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THUS HAVE UNCERTAINTY ON CIGS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE HAS
PUSHED ACROSS UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE
HAS LED TO SOME LK EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LATEST OBS
INDICATE VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES IN THE UPPER GREAT LKS. WITH SOME
DIURNAL HEATING BETWEEN THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE STILL TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERIOD OF SPORADIC...HIGH END MVFR CIGS DURING THE LATE
MORNING. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED VCSH AT KIWD/KSAW BASED OFF LATEST RADAR
RETURNS AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

HIGH PRES/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
UNDER 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 451 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING SW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LKS FROM NRN QUEBEC. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR. AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MOVE ACROSS
WRN LK SUPERIOR...BUT ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE OVER LAND.
FARTHER EAST...A FEW AREAS OF LK ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING OVER THE MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. THESE
HAVE BEEN DRIFTING MORE TO THE S OVER TIME AS 8Z KMQT VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING MORE NNW WINDS ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS LINE UP WELL
WITH MODEL INDICATED POCKET OF DEEPEST MOISTURE.

THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SSE UNDER THE NNW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE FOCUSED OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FOR A WHILE THIS EARLY MORNING...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY DIVES SE OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO
EXIT AND BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AS H500 HEIGHTS ARE ON THE
RISE. AS FOR CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY NEAR LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND THEN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA UNDER DIURNAL HEATING BY
MID DAY. THEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
HOLD IN THE AFTN AND DIMINISH THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER ERN UPPER MI
/TOWARDS EARLY EVENING/. H850 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL SHIFTS...APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD FROST/FREEZE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND PRODUCE CLEAR
SKIES OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN UPPER MI /LINGERING LK EFFECT
CLOUDS/. PWATS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S OVER MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR WEST FELL INTO THE UPPER
20S. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER DECENT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH COULD EVEN EFFECT AREAS CLOSE TO THE GREAT LKS
SHORELINES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

TEHRE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CURRENT TROF OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE DROPPING SE AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT LATE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY.
MORE ON THAT LATER. FORTUNATELY...THE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS DOESN`T
IMPACT THE PCPN FCST. THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE INTO/THRU THE
WEEKEND TRANSITION TO LARGER DIFFERENCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VARYING BTWN NW AND WSW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN FOR
UPPER MI. TEMP FCST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPENCIES...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL IN GENERAL.

BEGINNING THU...ALTHOUGH ERN TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
OUT...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD FAR NRN ONTARIO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODEST WAA PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THU. MODELS SHOW
A DRY COLUMN...SO PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN WITH THE WAA. IN FACT...THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR. WAA
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LWR 60S PER MIXING TO AROUND
850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS.

AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SE...PASSING OVER THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY
FRI...A VERY WEAK SFC TROF WILL SINK S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MAIN
DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO THE NE AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA...PCPN IS NOT AN ISSUE. 850MB TEMPS TO START THE DAY FRI
ARE 4-6C HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. MIXING TO AROUND 850MB YIELDS
MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY...SO HELD TEMPS GENERALLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY FRI GETS LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER SE CANADA IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING ERN TROF. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BROADENING
MIDLEVEL LOW...THE HEIGHT RISES TO THE N END UP PUSHING SYSTEM S OR
SW. 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT BAD WITH THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE BTWN WRN LWR MI
(GLOBAL GEM) AND NW PA/WRN NY SUN (GFS). AT THIS POINT...THE
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T
IMPACT FCST SIGNIFICANTLY. GIVEN THE DRY ORIGINATION OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE TO FULLY ENTRAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC...PCPN SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN HERE. LOCATION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN AFFECT ON TEMPS. THE FARTHER W GLOBAL
GEM SOLUTION WOULD BRING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE
FOR SUN (850MB TEMPS 3C E TO 5C W) WHILE THE FARTHER E GFS SOLUTION
WOULD MAINTAIN WARMER WEATHER THRU SUN (850MB TEMPS 4C E TO 10C W).
GIVEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS OF RECENT DAYS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS FCST UNTIL LOCATION OF MID LEVEL LOW IS
BETTER AGREED UPON. END RESULT IS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THIS
WEEKEND.

ECWMF/GFS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH
MODELS HAVE VARIED FROM HAVING A RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NW AND NW FLOW
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TO A TROF IN THE PACIFIC NW AND WSW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. FOR THE MOMENT...THE 00Z RUNS FAVOR NW FLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WHICH RESULTS IN A SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT PASSING MON
AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TUE. ONLY INCLUDED A SCHC OF -SHRA MON WITH
FIRST SHORTWAVE. TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70F.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN A
FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LIFT BY WED AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

HIGH PRES/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
UNDER 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 129 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NE CONUS. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HELPED SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS FROM
WINNIPEG TO THUNDER BAY ONTARIO. SOME SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK LAKE BREEZES. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND
WIND FIELD PREVAILED AS HIGH PRESURE FROM SASK/MANITOBA BUILDS INTO
THE NRN GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT SHRA WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD
-1C AND A WEAK SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS THE LAKE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. WITH LAKE TEMPS ONLY AROUND 10C TO 13C...DELTA/T
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN BUT WILL BE AIDED BY
THE SHRTWV/COLD POOL WITH 700 MB TEMPS ALSO DROPPING TO AROUND
-10C.

THE TIMING OF THE TROF WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
MIN OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH DIVERGENT
LOW LEVEL ACYC FLOW AND A SHORTER FETCH...LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHRA
WEST OF THE KEWEENAW. AWAY FROM ANY THICKER CLOUDS AND LAKE
INFLUENCE... TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP AOB FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. ANY LINGERING SHRA IN THE MORNING INTO THE
ERN CWA FAVORED BY NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND END BY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO DOMINATE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HEIGHTS OVER UPPER LAKES STAYING GENERALLY HIGH. ONE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE GEM-NHEM STILL SHOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEK THEN
DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. ECMWF IS FARTHEST WEST WITH UPPER LOW CENTER
AND SUPPOSE WITH ITS SOLUTION THERE COULD END UP BEING SOME SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN CWA SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF HAS SHOWN THIS
FOR FOUR MODEL RUNS NOW...SINCE THE 00Z RUN ON 24 SEPT. GFS REALLY
SHOWS NOTHING OF THE SORT WHILE THE GEM-NHEM IS MORE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD. CONSENSUS POPS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR NOW...BUT WENT AHEAD AND
NUDGED CLOUD COVER UP OVER THE EAST LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH AREA NEXT MONDAY BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE RESULTS IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
THE APPROACH OF A SFC TROUGH. PRIMARY IMPACT COULD BE GUSTY SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM SEEMS TO BE TEMPERATURES
AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
TECHNICALLY ENDED THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THIS FALL AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE REGION HAVE EXPERIENCED BLO FREEZING TEMPS
RECENTLY...MENTION OF FROST IN THE GRIDS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 30
SEPT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR...EXPECT LARGER
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MINS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S. COLDER EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND PWATS AS LOW AS 40 PCT OF NORMAL
SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TWEAKED MINS WELL
BLO FREEZING OVER INTERIOR CWA /LOW-MID 20S FOR FAVORED INLAND COLD
SPOTS/. LACK OF WIND/LAND BREEZE SHOULD EVEN RESULT IN SOME FROST
FORMING PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. WARMER EXCEPTION MAY
BE ON FRIDAY AS BUBBLE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS ONTARIO. POSSIBLE THAT SOME READINGS
COULD PUSH INTO THE 70S IF ALL BREAKS RIGHT. LOWERED DWPNTS SOME FOR
THURSDAY AFTN AND FRIDAY AFTN AS H85 DWPNT DEPRESSIONS ARE HIGHER
THROUGH THAT TIME. EVEN SO...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
SINCE WINDS STAY LIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN A
FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LIFT BY WED AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

HIGH PRES/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 20KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 816 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

HAVE REDUCED POPS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR DATA. STILL BELIEVE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE LATE TONIGHT. S/W
APPROACHING THE REGION SHUD HELP PROVIDE ENUF LIFT THAT ISOD TO
SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MO. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN ACROSS
SRN HALF OF THE CWA CO-LOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING AND WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY REMAINS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU MOST OF THE
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT CLOUDS AS THE S/W MOVES THRU.
IF ENUF CLEARING CAN OCCUR S OF THE FNT...DEVELOPMENT OF FG WILL
BECOME A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FG OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW AND ADDRESS IF/WHEN NEEDED.

TILLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

SYNOPSIS

WEAK ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH. THE BNDRY EXTENDS FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN OK...NE INTO CNTRL MO AND IL AND ON INTO
THE OH VLY. A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS PUSHING THRU SW MO AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THRU THIS EVENING.
DIURNAL SHRA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS NW AR AND S CNTRL
MO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. OTHER SHRAS HAVE FORMED ACROSS ERN
KS AND WRN MO ON WHAT IS PROBABLY THE ACTUAL FRONT. TO THE
NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CLEARED THE SKIES ACROSS
NTRHN MO AND W CNTRL IL.

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS THRU TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING THRU THE CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO I70 TODAY. SHRA/ISLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOT THE STHRN FA THIS EVENING AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A VORT
MAX RIDING ENE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. THE NAM AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOCAL WRF APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG WITH THIS ENERGY.
CONSEQUENTLY...THEY BOTH DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIP SOUTH OF I70 THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. I THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AND THE COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHRAS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

THE WEAK HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL DROP SSW TO LOWER MI BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO DROP THIS WEEKEND AND
TEMPER THE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. 850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A TIGHTER GRADIENT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DVLP THIS WKND IN RESPONSE TO A SW WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A
CHANGE IN THE WIND DIRECTION AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NE
SATURDAY/NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY
AFTN.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WENT WITH
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE ERN OZARKS TONIGHT FOR THE SAME REASON AS THE COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. TRIED TO USE THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR LOWS OVER
THE WKND. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DPS SHOULD CREATE COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MILLER

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

(SUNDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)

THIS APPEARS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GRT LKS LIFTS NE ON MONDAY.
IN IT/S WAKE IS A LW TROF THAT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY MIDWEEK.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BASE OF THE TROF TRIES TO CLOSE
OFF...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE
TN/OH VLYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROF ARE ABSORBED INTO THE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYS TO
THE EAST ATTM...BUT SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

KEPT WITH THE IDEA THAT CIGS AT KCOU AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF
SITES WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHT AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF
-SHRA AT THESE SAME AIRPORTS...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY BEFORE
CIGS TURN VFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STUBBORN TO MIX OUT
WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL. HAVE WAITED UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO GO VFR
BECAUSE OF THIS. EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 918 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM OHIO. RAIN WILL MOSTLY FALL LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...RAIN NOW MOVING INTO NEPA. FROM RADAR RETURNS
BIGGEST IMPACT WILL REMAIN HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS JUST GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY...WITH DRY
WEATHER NORTH OF HERE. PREVIOUS AFD BELOW.


7 PM UPDATE...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOW TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. THIS IS
MOST EVIDENT WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT SURFACE DEW POINTS...SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS CNY...BUT CREEPING INTO THE MID 50S DOWN IN
NEPA. AS OUR ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP AND WE BEGIN TO
SEE A MID DECK AROUND 5KFT DEVELOP...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN NEPA
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...OR JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 18Z NAM...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE ARW/NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD FOR
PRECIP TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NY/PA LINE THROUGH
06Z. IN FACT...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS
DELAYING THE RAIN MUCH LONGER ACROSS CNY...AND KEEPING THESE AREAS
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IF NOT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEW
QPF GUIDANCE IS IN FROM HPC AND AGREES WITH MORE EMPHASIS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AND DELAYED TIMING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


3 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL TRACK ENE INTO SE NY FRI AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW IS A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL INCREASE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST AND TAPS THE ATLANTIC. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SFC
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DECREASE SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES. LIFT WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES SOUTH PUTTING THE AREA
IN THE RIGHT REAR WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES IN FOR THE FRONT
LEFT QUAD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW STARTING
IN NE PA THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY TO JUST OVER AN INCH IN NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY FLASH FLOODING.
RIVERS WILL RISE SOME BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING
IN ATTM. FRIDAY GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND WENT CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
AFTER A QUIET MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CWA WILL BE WAITING FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SE INTO NY. MODELS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING BETTER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKES WILL BRING SOME CUMULUS. 850MB TEMPS
FALL BACK TO PLUS 3C.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE EXIT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.
MOST MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER NY AND PA LATE SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY DAY SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL MEAN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL MIDDAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE...BEFORE CONDS
DETERIORATE LATER TNT INTO FRI...AS LWR CIGS AND RAIN MOVE IN FOR
KAVP...KELM...KBGM...AND KITH. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD
OCCUR AT KAVP (MORE INTERMITTENT AT KELM...KBGM...AND KITH)...BUT
MVFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT EACH SITE. IN GENERAL...STEADIER RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LAST LONGER.

FOR KSYR AND KRME...VFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT...AS THE
RAIN SHIELD LARGELY BYPASSES THESE SITES TO THE S.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL BECOME N TO NW AND
INCREASE TO ARND 10 KT FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 747 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM OHIO. RAIN WILL MOSTLY FALL LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOW TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. THIS IS
MOST EVIDENT WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT SURFACE DEW POINTS...SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS CNY...BUT CREEPING INTO THE MID 50S DOWN IN
NEPA. AS OUR ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP AND WE BEGIN TO
SEE A MID DECK AROUND 5KFT DEVELOP...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN NEPA
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...OR JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 18Z NAM...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE ARW/NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD FOR
PRECIP TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NY/PA LINE THROUGH
06Z. IN FACT...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS
DELAYING THE RAIN MUCH LONGER ACROSS CNY...AND KEEPING THESE AREAS
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IF NOT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEW
QPF GUIDANCE IS IN FROM HPC AND AGREES WITH MORE EMPHASIS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AND DELAYED TIMING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


3 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL TRACK ENE INTO SE NY FRI AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW IS A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL INCREASE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST AND TAPS THE ATLANTIC. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SFC
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DECREASE SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES. LIFT WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES SOUTH PUTTING THE AREA
IN THE RIGHT REAR WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES IN FOR THE FRONT
LEFT QUAD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW STARTING
IN NE PA THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY TO JUST OVER AN INCH IN NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY FLASH FLOODING.
RIVERS WILL RISE SOME BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING
IN ATTM. FRIDAY GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND WENT CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
AFTER A QUIET MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CWA WILL BE WAITING FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SE INTO NY. MODELS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING BETTER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKES WILL BRING SOME CUMULUS. 850MB TEMPS
FALL BACK TO PLUS 3C.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE EXIT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.
MOST MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER NY AND PA LATE SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY DAY SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL MEAN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL MIDDAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE...BEFORE CONDS
DETERIORATE LATER TNT INTO FRI...AS LWR CIGS AND RAIN MOVE IN FOR
KAVP...KELM...KBGM...AND KITH. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD
OCCUR AT KAVP (MORE INTERMITTENT AT KELM...KBGM...AND KITH)...BUT
MVFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT EACH SITE. IN GENERAL...STEADIER RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LAST LONGER.

FOR KSYR AND KRME...VFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT...AS THE
RAIN SHIELD LARGELY BYPASSES THESE SITES TO THE S.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL BECOME N TO NW AND
INCREASE TO ARND 10 KT FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 723 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM OHIO. RAIN WILL MOSTLY FALL LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOW TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. THIS IS
MOST EVIDENT WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT SURFACE DEWPOINTS...SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS CNY...BUT CREEPING INTO THE MID 50S DOWN IN
NEPA. AS OUR ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP AND WE BEGIN TO
SEE A MID DECK AROUND 5KFT DEVELOP...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN NEPA
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...OR JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 18Z NAM...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE ARW/NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD FOR
PRECIP TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NY/PA LINE THROUGH
06Z. IN FACT...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS
DELAYING THE RAIN MUCH LONGER ACROSS CNY...AND KEEPING THESE AREAS
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IF NOT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEW
QPF GUIDANCE IS IN FROM HPC AND AGREES WITH MORE EMPHASIS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AND DELAYED TIMING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


3 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL TRACK ENE INTO SE NY FRI AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW IS A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL INCREASE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST AND TAPS THE ATLANTIC. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SFC
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DECREASE SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES. LIFT WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES SOUTH PUTTING THE AREA
IN THE RIGHT REAR WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES IN FOR THE FRONT
LEFT QUAD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW STARTING
IN NE PA THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY TO JUST OVER AN INCH IN NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY FLASH FLOODING.
RIVERS WILL RISE SOME BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING
IN ATTM. FRIDAY GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND WENT CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
AFTER A QUIET MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CWA WILL BE WAITING FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SE INTO NY. MODELS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING BETTER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKES WILL BRING SOME CUMULUS. 850MB TEMPS
FALL BACK TO PLUS 3C.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE EXIT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.
MOST MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER NY AND PA LATE SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY DAY SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL MEAN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL MIDDAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NEW
YORK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
QUICKLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL MVFR RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR RAIN WILL
BEING AROUND 06Z-08Z IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AROUND MID
MORNING AT KRME/KSYR. AT KITH/KBGM, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE RAIN ENDS AND THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 5-8 KNOTS THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT KITH/KBGM/KELM AROUND
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 242 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. AGAIN BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP ONSET. SPRINKLES NOW
IN THE SW CWA BUT THIS CONTINUES TO DIE. MORE WAVES WILL DO BETTER
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW. SKIES SHOULD STAY
CLOUDY. SMALL NARROW CAPE WITH NO MID LEVEL DRYING. LEFT ISOLATED
T. BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE FAR S WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMEST AND THE FRONT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO GET TO.

640 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM WESTERN PA. HIGH-RES MODELS TO
INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
WITH FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN CASE
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. BEYOND THIS...MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
(DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW). IN ADDITION TO POP GRID
ADJUSTMENTS...MINOR TWEAKS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW WORKING THROUGH THE FCST AREA. TRAILING EDGE OF
SHWRS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES THIS HR WITH UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING WE/LL HAVE A FEW DRY HRS BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHWRS DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPANDING OUT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MAIN STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MI NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME AS MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES APPROACHES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY.

AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT FCST DISCUSSIONS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
LATER TODAY. MAIN CONCERNS ARE A RESULT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO INCLUDE BOTH THE GFS AND WRF. THE
LATTER IN RECENT WEEKS HAS PERFORMED VERY POORLY WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY FCST AND TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE AS THE LATEST RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ONLY SUGGESTS A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES AT BEST WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE "JUNKED UP" AS A
RESULT OF THIS MORNING/S SHWR ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FROM MAINLY THE STATE LINE
SOUTH AS BEST INSTABILITY GENERATION WILL BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ALOFT...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

RAIN TO QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE DESPITE
LAKE/H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 20C BY 12Z THU. ADDITIONALLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WITHIN THE
INVERSION LAYER WHICH WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHWRS.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TOOK A MET/MAV
BLEND AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TO THE
HIGHER VALUES AS SUGGESTED BY THE MET. BY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPS EASILY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BY THU NGT/EARLY FRI AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD MAINLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AS LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO SUPPLY DRY AIR TO THE NORTHERN CWA.
HAVE SCALED PRECIP MENTION FURTHER SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE SFC
RIDGING WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A CHC MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

WEAK SFC LOW TO BEGIN WORKING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI
WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT FROM APPROACHING POLAR
VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHWRS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AT KRME/KSYR/KTIH AND TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT
KBGM/KELM AND NEAR 06Z AT KAVP. IN GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CIGS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBGM/KAVP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
AT ALL TAF SITES AROUND FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
THE NRN TERMINALS AROUND 09Z AND MID MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA
AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN NORTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THROUGH SAT...GENERALLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AT
KAVP.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 210 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. AGAIN BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP ONSET. SPRINKLES NOW
IN THE SW CWA BUT THIS CONTINUES TO DIE. MORE WAVES WILL DO BETTER
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW. SKIES SHOULD STAY
CLOUDY. SMALL NARROW CAPE WITH NO MID LEVEL DRYING. LEFT ISOLATED
T. BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE FAR S WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMEST AND THE FRONT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO GET TO.

640 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM WESTERN PA. HIGH-RES MODELS TO
INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
WITH FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN CASE
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. BEYOND THIS...MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
(DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW). IN ADDITION TO POP GRID
ADJUSTMENTS...MINOR TWEAKS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW WORKING THROUGH THE FCST AREA. TRAILING EDGE OF
SHWRS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES THIS HR WITH UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING WE/LL HAVE A FEW DRY HRS BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHWRS DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPANDING OUT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MAIN STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MI NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME AS MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES APPROACHES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY.

AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT FCST DISCUSSIONS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
LATER TODAY. MAIN CONCERNS ARE A RESULT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO INCLUDE BOTH THE GFS AND WRF. THE
LATTER IN RECENT WEEKS HAS PERFORMED VERY POORLY WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY FCST AND TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE AS THE LATEST RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ONLY SUGGESTS A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES AT BEST WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE "JUNKED UP" AS A
RESULT OF THIS MORNING/S SHWR ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FROM MAINLY THE STATE LINE
SOUTH AS BEST INSTABILITY GENERATION WILL BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ALOFT...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

RAIN TO QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE DESPITE
LAKE/H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 20C BY 12Z THU. ADDITIONALLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WITHIN THE
INVERSION LAYER WHICH WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHWRS.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TOOK A MET/MAV
BLEND AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TO THE
HIGHER VALUES AS SUGGESTED BY THE MET. BY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPS EASILY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BY THU NGT/EARLY FRI AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD MAINLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AS LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO SUPPLY DRY AIR TO THE NORTHERN CWA.
HAVE SCALED PRECIP MENTION FURTHER SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE SFC
RIDGING WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A CHC MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

WEAK SFC LOW TO BEGIN WORKING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI
WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT FROM APPROACHING POLAR
VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHWRS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
STALLED FRNTL BNDRY PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THRU THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG S/WV DROPS IN
ASSOC WITH UL TROF IN ERN CANADA...INDUCING SFC LOW DVLPMNT ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX PRESENT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UA PATTERN THRU 00Z TUE THO THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW STRONG THE UL LOW WL BCM. GIVEN
THAT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER SEE NO REASON TO CHG
LONG TERM GRIDS AT THIS POINT WITH 30 POPS PRESENT SAT THRU MON IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES
THRU THE EXTNDD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AT KRME/KSYR/KTIH AND TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT
KBGM/KELM AND NEAR 06Z AT KAVP. IN GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CIGS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBGM/KAVP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
AT ALL TAF SITES AROUND FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
THE NRN TERMINALS AROUND 09Z AND MID MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA
AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN NORTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THROUGH SAT...GENERALLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AT
KAVP.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1058 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. AGAIN BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP ONSET. SPRINKLES NOW
IN THE SW CWA BUT THIS CONTINUES TO DIE. MORE WAVES WILL DO BETTER
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW. SKIES SHOULD STAY
CLOUDY. SMALL NARROW CAPE WITH NO MID LEVEL DRYING. LEFT ISOLATED
T. BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE FAR S WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMEST AND THE FRONT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO GET TO.

640 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM WESTERN PA. HIGH-RES MODELS TO
INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
WITH FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN CASE
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. BEYOND THIS...MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
(DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW). IN ADDITION TO POP GRID
ADJUSTMENTS...MINOR TWEAKS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW WORKING THROUGH THE FCST AREA. TRAILING EDGE OF
SHWRS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES THIS HR WITH UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING WE/LL HAVE A FEW DRY HRS BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHWRS DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPANDING OUT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MAIN STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MI NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME AS MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES APPROACHES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY.

AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT FCST DISCUSSIONS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
LATER TODAY. MAIN CONCERNS ARE A RESULT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO INCLUDE BOTH THE GFS AND WRF. THE
LATTER IN RECENT WEEKS HAS PERFORMED VERY POORLY WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY FCST AND TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE AS THE LATEST RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ONLY SUGGESTS A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES AT BEST WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE "JUNKED UP" AS A
RESULT OF THIS MORNING/S SHWR ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FROM MAINLY THE STATE LINE
SOUTH AS BEST INSTABILITY GENERATION WILL BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ALOFT...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

RAIN TO QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE DESPITE
LAKE/H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 20C BY 12Z THU. ADDITIONALLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WITHIN THE
INVERSION LAYER WHICH WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHWRS.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TOOK A MET/MAV
BLEND AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TO THE
HIGHER VALUES AS SUGGESTED BY THE MET. BY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPS EASILY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BY THU NGT/EARLY FRI AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD MAINLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AS LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO SUPPLY DRY AIR TO THE NORTHERN CWA.
HAVE SCALED PRECIP MENTION FURTHER SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE SFC
RIDGING WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A CHC MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

WEAK SFC LOW TO BEGIN WORKING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI
WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT FROM APPROACHING POLAR
VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHWRS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
STALLED FRNTL BNDRY PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THRU THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG S/WV DROPS IN
ASSOC WITH UL TROF IN ERN CANADA...INDUCING SFC LOW DVLPMNT ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX PRESENT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UA PATTERN THRU 00Z TUE THO THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW STRONG THE UL LOW WL BCM. GIVEN
THAT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER SEE NO REASON TO CHG
LONG TERM GRIDS AT THIS POINT WITH 30 POPS PRESENT SAT THRU MON IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES
THRU THE EXTNDD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL START OFF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HELP TO DEVELOP MVFR SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AT KAVP BTWN 04Z-08Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER 08Z...THEREFORE HAVE TEMPO/D IFR VSBYS INTO KELM
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WINDS GNRLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...TURNING OUT OF THE
NORTH AFTER FROPA.


OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

FRI TO SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AT
KAVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 707 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE
LATER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
640 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM WESTERN PA. HIGH-RES MODELS TO
INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
WITH FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN CASE
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. BEYOND THIS...MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
(DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW). IN ADDITION TO POP GRID
ADJUSTMENTS...MINOR TWEAKS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW WORKING THROUGH THE FCST AREA. TRAILING EDGE OF
SHWRS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES THIS HR WITH UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING WE/LL HAVE A FEW DRY HRS BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHWRS DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPANDING OUT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MAIN STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MI NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME AS MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES APPROACHES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY.

AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT FCST DISCUSSIONS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
LATER TODAY. MAIN CONCERNS ARE A RESULT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO INCLUDE BOTH THE GFS AND WRF. THE
LATTER IN RECENT WEEKS HAS PERFORMED VERY POORLY WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY FCST AND TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE AS THE LATEST RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ONLY SUGGESTS A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES AT BEST WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE "JUNKED UP" AS A
RESULT OF THIS MORNING/S SHWR ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FROM MAINLY THE STATE LINE
SOUTH AS BEST INSTABILITY GENERATION WILL BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ALOFT...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

RAIN TO QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE DESPITE
LAKE/H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 20C BY 12Z THU. ADDITIONALLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WITHIN THE
INVERSION LAYER WHICH WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHWRS.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TOOK A MET/MAV
BLEND AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TO THE
HIGHER VALUES AS SUGGESTED BY THE MET. BY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPS EASILY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BY THU NGT/EARLY FRI AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD MAINLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AS LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO SUPPLY DRY AIR TO THE NORTHERN CWA.
HAVE SCALED PRECIP MENTION FURTHER SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE SFC
RIDGING WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A CHC MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

WEAK SFC LOW TO BEGIN WORKING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI
WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT FROM APPROACHING POLAR
VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHWRS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
STALLED FRNTL BNDRY PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THRU THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG S/WV DROPS IN
ASSOC WITH UL TROF IN ERN CANADA...INDUCING SFC LOW DVLPMNT ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX PRESENT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UA PATTERN THRU 00Z TUE THO THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW STRONG THE UL LOW WL BCM. GIVEN
THAT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER SEE NO REASON TO CHG
LONG TERM GRIDS AT THIS POINT WITH 30 POPS PRESENT SAT THRU MON IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES
THRU THE EXTNDD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL START OFF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HELP TO DEVELOP MVFR SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AT KAVP BTWN 04Z-08Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER 08Z...THEREFORE HAVE TEMPO/D IFR VSBYS INTO KELM
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WINDS GNRLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...TURNING OUT OF THE
NORTH AFTER FROPA.


OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

FRI TO SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AT
KAVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 644 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE
LATER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
640 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM WESTERN PA. HIGH-RES MODELS TO
INCLUDE THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
WITH FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN CASE
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. BEYOND THIS...MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
(DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW). IN ADDITION TO POP GRID
ADJUSTMENTS...MINOR TWEAKS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW WORKING THROUGH THE FCST AREA. TRAILING EDGE OF
SHWRS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES THIS HR WITH UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING WE/LL HAVE A FEW DRY HRS BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHWRS DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPANDING OUT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MAIN STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MI NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME AS MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES APPROACHES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY.

AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT FCST DISCUSSIONS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
LATER TODAY. MAIN CONCERNS ARE A RESULT OF MIXED SIGNALS FROM
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO INCLUDE BOTH THE GFS AND WRF. THE
LATTER IN RECENT WEEKS HAS PERFORMED VERY POORLY WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY FCST AND TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE AS THE LATEST RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ONLY SUGGESTS A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES AT BEST WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE "JUNKED UP" AS A
RESULT OF THIS MORNING/S SHWR ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FROM MAINLY THE STATE LINE
SOUTH AS BEST INSTABILITY GENERATION WILL BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ALOFT...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

RAIN TO QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE DESPITE
LAKE/H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 20C BY 12Z THU. ADDITIONALLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WITHIN THE
INVERSION LAYER WHICH WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHWRS.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TOOK A MET/MAV
BLEND AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TO THE
HIGHER VALUES AS SUGGESTED BY THE MET. BY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPS EASILY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BY THU NGT/EARLY FRI AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD MAINLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AS LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO SUPPLY DRY AIR TO THE NORTHERN CWA.
HAVE SCALED PRECIP MENTION FURTHER SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE SFC
RIDGING WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A CHC MENTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

WEAK SFC LOW TO BEGIN WORKING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI
WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT FROM APPROACHING POLAR
VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHWRS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
STALLED FRNTL BNDRY PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THRU THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG S/WV DROPS IN
ASSOC WITH UL TROF IN ERN CANADA...INDUCING SFC LOW DVLPMNT ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX PRESENT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UA PATTERN THRU 00Z TUE THO THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW STRONG THE UL LOW WL BCM. GIVEN
THAT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER SEE NO REASON TO CHG
LONG TERM GRIDS AT THIS POINT WITH 30 POPS PRESENT SAT THRU MON IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES
THRU THE EXTNDD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE AT MOST LOCATIONS TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH 09Z BEFORE
ENDING BRIEFLY. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER TERMINALS OF
KITH/KBGM. CIGS WILL LIFT BY 14Z AT MOST TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AFTER 18Z WITH MOST LIKELY LOCATION AT KAVP WHERE CDFNT INTERACTS
WITH MOST INSTABILITY.

WINDS TNGT GNRLY SRLY 5-10 KTS...SWLY ON WED 10-20 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THUR MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.

THU...VFR.

FRI TO SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AT
KAVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 338 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEK. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOUTH OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT...THE CWA REMAINS ENTRENCHED
IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TIMING TONIGHT.

CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK VORTICITY CENTER OVER INDIANA...WITH THE NEW DEVELOPMENT
FIRING UP ON A BAND WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE...THE WSW-ENE
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER) THROUGH CENTRAL
OHIO IS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY HAS BUILT TO ABOUT 1000
J/KG IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND IS GREATER FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RUC13 INSTABILITY FORECASTS OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE MUCH
TOO HIGH...GIVEN THE ERRONEOUS ADVECTION OF DEWPOINTS OVER 70
DEGREES INTO SW OHIO.

POPS ARE CATEGORICAL FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST...AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
THAT...MUCH OF THE CWA MAY SEE A BREAK FROM CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SYSTEM. WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER IN THE SOUTH...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE 40 KNOTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR (WHICH IS ACTUALLY STRONGER
THAN THE 0-6 KM SHEAR)...SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A FEW STRONG
CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITHOUT A KEY TRIGGER OR MUCH
INSTABILITY...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR POSSIBLE.

POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA GOING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE CURRENT INDIANA/OHIO SYSTEM...IT APPEARS
THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERY AND NOT ALL OF IT WILL BE
CONVECTIVE. DEVELOPING STORMS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY BE WHAT
ENDS UP PROVIDING A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER ON
TONIGHT.

THE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED THE SOUTHERN CWA TO APPROACH
80 DEGREES TODAY. GIVEN THE WARMER STARTING POINT...AND EXPECTED
MOIST AND CLOUDY ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE SOUTH WERE
BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY...BUT ENOUGH PROGRESS TO BRING AN END TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT WILL ORIENT ITSELF
EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND STALL OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
MEANS THAT THE MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL REQUIRE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND
THEN JUST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. AS THE VARIOUS
MODELS (AND THEIR VARIOUS RUNS) CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING
THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE QUICK LOWER-TO-MID-LEVEL
FLOW...IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIME OR PLACEMENT OF
ANY NORTHWARD-IMPINGING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT MAY IMPACT THE CWA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MAX TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AS THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING 70. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA. GUIDANCE AND MODEL
NUMBERS EXHIBITED LITTLE SPREAD...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT AND SUN
FOCUSED ON TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH DISTURBANCE ROTATING THRU.
TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MAIN PROBLEM WITH GFS MORE SAT NIGHT
AND ECMWF MORE SUN. HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
BOTH SCENARIOS FOR NOW. LATER FCST CAN PERHAPS HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON
TIMING. MON-WED WILL SEE RIDGING WITH WARMING THRU PERIOD.
SEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS WITH SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN IN A CONFLUENT H5 FLOW...AS A H5 TROF DIGS FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ERN ONES. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT CONTINUES
ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS A SET UP FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
TAFS...THE CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION
AT THE TAF SITES. STEADIEST CONVECTION ATTM IS RUNNING FROM LAF-
AOH-MFD IN AN AREA OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN OH IN KY HOWEVER.

FOR NOW COVERED THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WITH ONLY VCTS OR
VCSH. THINK THAT THE BETTER CHC OF TS IN IN THE SRN TAFS. AS THE
FNT PUSHES S OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NLY COMPONENT AND THE
CHC OF PCPN SHOULD END IN THE NRN TAFS. BROUGHT SOME MVFR CIGS IN
POST FRONTAL. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO MAKE ITS WAY S TOMORROW...SO
THERE COULD BE A LINGERING CHC OF SHRA AT CVG/LUK. AFT 12Z...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...SITES







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 347 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO MAINE
AND EXTEND A RIDGE BACK WEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY
IS MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS CAPE WEAKENS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR
MODELS STILL SHOW WEAKENED PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION AND
BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LATEST SPC GUIDANCE INDICATES SEE TEXT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND THIS LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS PENETRATE ABOVE THE 11600 FOOT
FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND STORMS COULD TAP
INTO THE GUSTY WINDS PUSHING 40 KNOTS. SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON THE TRICKY SIDE THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR RISING
TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SUBDUED THROUGH THE DAY. WILL DROP BACK GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE DAY THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE. COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE AND HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST BUT ONLY LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST. I MAY BE A BIT LOW
ON THE HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 6
DEGREES C IN THAT AREA COMPARED TO 10 DEGREES C IN THE WEST.

GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AIR MASS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT REALLY
THAT COLD AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE MILDER LOWS.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT WARMING. WILL ONLY GO A
COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT NUDGE OF COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE AREA DRY. MAY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST FOR POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WITH A QUESTION. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD BE OCCURRING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NE OH AND
NW PA. ADDED SOME POPS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY. IN THE MEANTIME A WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOW FAR NORTH THE THUNDER GETS IS
THE QUESTION. ALL THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP WENT WITH THAT IDEA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS IN
QUESTION. AFTER THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHEAST TONIGHT THE WINDS COULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE PERIOD FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WOULD BE
03Z-15Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A NORTHERLY
FLOW. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW IT IS NOT
TOUGH TO DO...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 157 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WAS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA CROSSING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RUC AND HRRR MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DECIDED TO UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL SINCE
FORECAST AREA IS ON THE EDGE OF SOME PRETTY GOOD CAPE. THE
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. I
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
VERSUS THE EAST HALF.

TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD SO NO ADJUSTMENTS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... PROBABLY A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PROGGED IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
IT COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE WIND SHIFTS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES SINCE PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING TO THE
SOUTH AND RISING TO THE NORTH. ALSO...WITH A SHALLOW FRONT...THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WELL NORTH OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY. WILL MENTION THUNDER... MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS ARE STILL WISHY WASHY ON WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN
THAT WE ARE HAVING TROUBLE GETTING SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS FAR NORTH
SO FAR... AND WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE... WILL KEEP
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION LOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE CAVEAT THAT IT IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED...BUT
ON THE LARGE SCALE THE WEEKEND SEEMS DOMINATED BY AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LOW. THIS FEATURE AND THE LIKELY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL. NOT SEEING MUCH TO INITIATE
ANY SHOWERS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. THE FLOW WILL
MODERATE SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BY TAKING AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH...RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THIS IS STILL SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM SO
LITTLE CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY. IN THE MEANTIME A WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOW FAR NORTH THE THUNDER GETS IS
THE QUESTION. ALL THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP WENT WITH THAT IDEA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS IN
QUESTION. AFTER THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORIENTED FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL DECREASE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE OHIO NEARSHORE
WATERS BUT HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM IN NW PA WHERE IT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER FOR WAVES TO COME DOWN.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH WAVES BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FEET AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF
THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 1240 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WAS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA CROSSING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RUC AND HRRR MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DECIDED TO UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL SINCE
FORECAST AREA IS ON THE EDGE OF SOME PRETTY GOOD CAPE. THE
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. I
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
VERSUS THE EAST HALF.

TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD SO NO ADJUSTMENTS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... PROBABLY A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PROGGED IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
IT COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE WIND SHIFTS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES SINCE PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING TO THE
SOUTH AND RISING TO THE NORTH. ALSO...WITH A SHALLOW FRONT...THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WELL NORTH OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY. WILL MENTION THUNDER... MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS ARE STILL WISHY WASHY ON WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN
THAT WE ARE HAVING TROUBLE GETTING SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS FAR NORTH
SO FAR... AND WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE... WILL KEEP
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION LOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE CAVEAT THAT IT IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED...BUT
ON THE LARGE SCALE THE WEEKEND SEEMS DOMINATED BY AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LOW. THIS FEATURE AND THE LIKELY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL. NOT SEEING MUCH TO INITIATE
ANY SHOWERS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. THE FLOW WILL
MODERATE SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BY TAKING AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH...RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THIS IS STILL SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM SO
LITTLE CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD COMING UP WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING
THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO PA EARLY TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. TO THE NORTH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN
GRTLKS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND CROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THAT DEWPOINT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH A LIGHT S WIND CONTINUING EXPECTING
CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL LATER TONIGHT ESP AFTER 06Z. MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE THUNDER MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OHIO TOWARD 12Z WHICH MAY IMPACT FROM FDY-MFD-CAK. OVERALL
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE IFR PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WED.

.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORIENTED FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL DECREASE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE OHIO NEARSHORE
WATERS BUT HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM IN NW PA WHERE IT WILL TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER FOR WAVES TO COME DOWN.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH WAVES BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FEET AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF
THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...MULLEN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 1154 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO AVOID OUR TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. WITH NO FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVEMENT EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORMS GENERALLY WEAKENING... HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT TAFS... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMLC
WHICH STILL HAS A CHANCE. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH
MOVES CLOSER TOMORROW... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER
ACROSS OUR NORTH TOMORROW EVENING. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY IN ALL SITES EXCEPT KMLC AND KFSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS HAS REMAIN CONFINED TO NEARER
THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH NO CURRENT INDICATION OF WORKING SOUTHWARD.
FURTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS SW OK WITH
SEVERE WINDS BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THIS COMPLEX MAY
TEND TOWARD A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT...WITH GENERALLY MORE
STABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS SE OK LIMITING THE POTENTIAL THIS FAR
EAST. THE 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION IN THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HRRR RUNS. UPDATED
FORECAST WILL REDUCE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. OTHER ELEMENTS APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1056 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF
RAIN PERSISTING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE KEYSTONE
STATE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD
FROM EASTERN CANADA AND CARVE OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD. SOLID CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NRN/NWRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE...OR ONLY SHOW
MINOR BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT...JUST
ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION WITH INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL KEEP
THE CHC OF THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THE SUNSHINE AND FORCING
MECHANISMS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL HOLD THE FCST AS IS IN THE
SOUTH. FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH IN CONTINUITY WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO TIMING OF PRECIP.

9 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE VORTICIES /MOST LIKELY MCV LEFT OVER FROM OH VALLEY
CONVECTION/ MOVING THRU SRN OH AND SRN INDIANA ARE VISIBLE IN BOTH
VIS SHOTS FROM GOES-14 AND IN THE RADAR MOSAIC. THESE CYCLONIC
TWISTS WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ADDITION THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.
SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED THE SRN TIER INTO SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY...CONSISTENT WITH THE FORCING AND EXPECTED HEATING. LOTS OF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CLOSE UP AS BLOW OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE WEST FLOW
OVERHEAD. IF THE SUNSHINE PERSISTS...SRN AREAS WILL GET SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FCST...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW.

PREV DSIC FOLLOWS...
S/W EVIDENT OVR SERN OH/NRN WV PER RADAR/SATL IMAGERY IS
COMBINING WITH 40-50KT WSWLY LLJ /ILM VWP/ AND AXIS OF HI PWATS TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER FROM THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS NWWD TO CLEVELAND. THE LATEST HRRR TAKES THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACRS THE S-CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 09-12Z...WEAKENING
WITH EWD EXTENT AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE NOSE OF LLJ AND REACH
THE LWR SUSQ VLY BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-80
CORRIDOR..EXPECT CVRG OF SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM UNV-BFD.

THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE PCPN THRU MID
MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVG THRU CVG ATTM AND WILL LKLY BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ACRS WRN PA BY EARLY
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SEWD LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER INTO THURS. NLY LLVL
FLOW WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE NRN PART OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SRN PA WILL LKLY CONT TO HAVE SHOWERS AS MSTR AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG STALLED E-W FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN FAVOR OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROF DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH ONTARIO AND
CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHORTLIVED IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL PA.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION LATE THIS
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS DECIDEDLY FAVORING QPF
FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GLAKS. ECMWF APPEARS MORE REALISTIC IN ITS DEPICTION OF
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS IN THIS REGIME. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IT
APPEARS WILL HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE SAT-SUN CUTOFF AND
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IS FAIRLY LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE IS EVIDENCE OF THIS...WITH 24 HOUR
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE SAT-SUN TIMEFRAME ONLY
TOPPING OUT AT 30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ AND WESTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL PA EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. WHILE
NO THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS SEEN AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL THE END OF THIS
PERIOD OF SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/15Z...NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST REASONING. DID ADD VCTS TO
JST/AOO FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONSIDER ADDING TO MDT/LNS WITH
NEXT UPDATE.
26/12Z...IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SEWD ACRS THE
MIDWEST...COMBINATION OF STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT VIA SWLY LLJ AND
BROAD VERTICAL LIFT ASSOC WITH MID- UPPER TROUGH MOVG EWD ACRS
SERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT NMRS RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACRS THE
AREA THRU EARLY THURS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE PA/MD
BORDER INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN MOVG NEWD
THRU CENTRAL PA...IMPACTING LNS/MDT/UNV/BFD BTWN 12-13Z AND IPT
BTWN 13-15Z. FQNT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH AN
ISOLD TSTM PSBL MAINLY OVR THE SRN TERMINALS. IFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AT BFD. SSW WIND AT JST FAVORS
MVFR OVER IFR..BUT WILL KEEP IFR THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MVFR
TO VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR NORTH/MVFR SOUTH. SHOWERS LKLY SRN AIRFIELDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 852 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN PERSISTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA AND CARVE OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE VORTICIES /MOST LIKELY MCV LEFT OVER FROM OH VALLEY
CONVECTION/ MOVING THRU SRN OH AND SRN INDIANA ARE VISIBLE IN
BOTH VIS SHOTS FROM GOES-14 AND IN THE RADAR MOSAIC. THESE
CYCLONIC TWISTS WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ADDITION THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTN. SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED THE SRN TIER INTO SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY...CONSISTENT WITH THE FORCING AND EXPECTED HEATING. LOTS OF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CLOSE UP AS BLOW OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE WEST FLOW
OVERHEAD. IF THE SUNSHINE PERSISTS...SRN AREAS WILL GET SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FCST...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW.

PREV DSIC FOLLOWS...
S/W EVIDENT OVR SERN OH/NRN WV PER RADAR/SATL IMAGERY IS
COMBINING WITH 40-50KT WSWLY LLJ /ILM VWP/ AND AXIS OF HI PWATS TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER FROM THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS NWWD TO CLEVELAND. THE LATEST HRRR TAKES THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACRS THE S-CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 09-12Z...WEAKENING
WITH EWD EXTENT AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE NOSE OF LLJ AND REACH
THE LWR SUSQ VLY BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-80
CORRIDOR..EXPECT CVRG OF SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM UNV-BFD.

THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE PCPN THRU MID
MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVG THRU CVG ATTM AND WILL LKLY BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ACRS WRN PA BY EARLY
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MDLS SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE FINER QPF DETAILS OF
THE FCST EVEN AT 6 HRLY TIME STEPS...THEY ARE OTHERWISE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RNFL AXIS SETTING UP ALONG DEEP MSTR AXIS
STRADDLING THE OH RVR AND EXTENDING ENEWD ACRS SW/S-CENTRAL PA.
WAA/ISENT LIFT VIA STG WSWLY LLJ ALONG WITH ENHANCED LG SCALE LIFT
NEAR RIGHT ENT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SCT TSTMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN PA WHERE
SREF SHOWS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. MOD/HVY
RNFL AXIS FROM THE OH VLY SHOULD STRETCH INTO SW PA/LAURELS WITH
D1 24HR QPF AMTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE JST/AOO AREA. FOLLOWED BLEND
MORE IN-LINE WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AS GFS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT EVOLUTION OF PCPN.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SEWD LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER INTO THURS. NLY LLVL
FLOW WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE NRN PART OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SRN PA WILL LKLY CONT TO HAVE SHOWERS AS MSTR AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG STALLED E-W FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN FAVOR OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROF DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH ONTARIO AND
CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHORTLIVED IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL PA.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION LATE THIS
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS DECIDEDLY FAVORING QPF
FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GLAKS. ECMWF APPEARS MORE REALISTIC IN ITS DEPICTION OF
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS IN THIS REGIME. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IT
APPEARS WILL HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE SAT-SUN CUTOFF AND
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IS FAIRLY LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE IS EVIDENCE OF THIS...WITH 24 HOUR
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE SAT-SUN TIMEFRAME ONLY
TOPPING OUT AT 30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ AND WESTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL PA EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. WHILE
NO THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS SEEN AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL THE END OF THIS
PERIOD OF SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/12Z...IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SEWD ACRS
THE MIDWEST...COMBINATION OF STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT VIA SWLY LLJ
AND BROAD VERTICAL LIFT ASSOC WITH MID-UPPER TROUGH MOVG EWD ACRS
SERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT NMRS RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACRS THE
AREA THRU EARLY THURS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE PA/MD
BORDER INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN MOVG NEWD
THRU CENTRAL PA...IMPACTING LNS/MDT/UNV/BFD BTWN 12-13Z AND IPT
BTWN 13-15Z. FQNT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH AN
ISOLD TSTM PSBL MAINLY OVR THE SRN TERMINALS. IFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AT BFD. SSW WIND AT JST FAVORS
MVFR OVER IFR..BUT WILL KEEP IFR THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MVFR
TO VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR NORTH/MVFR SOUTH. SHOWERS LKLY SRN AIRFIELDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 750 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN PERSISTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA AND CARVE OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
S/W EVIDENT OVR SERN OH/NRN WV PER RADAR/SATL IMAGERY IS COMBINING
WITH 40-50KT WSWLY LLJ /ILM VWP/ AND AXIS OF HI PWATS TO PRODUCE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS NWWD TO CLEVELAND. THE LATEST HRRR TAKES THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS ACRS THE S-CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 09-12Z...WEAKENING WITH EWD
EXTENT AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE NOSE OF LLJ AND REACH THE LWR
SUSQ VLY BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR..EXPECT
CVRG OF SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE WITH THE BEST CHC FOR
RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM UNV-BFD.

THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE PCPN THRU MID
MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVG THRU CVG ATTM AND WILL LKLY BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ACRS WRN PA BY EARLY
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MDLS SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE FINER QPF DETAILS OF
THE FCST EVEN AT 6 HRLY TIME STEPS...THEY ARE OTHERWISE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RNFL AXIS SETTING UP ALONG DEEP MSTR AXIS
STRADDLING THE OH RVR AND EXTENDING ENEWD ACRS SW/S-CENTRAL PA.
WAA/ISENT LIFT VIA STG WSWLY LLJ ALONG WITH ENHANCED LG SCALE LIFT
NEAR RIGHT ENT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT A FEW ISOLD
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN PA WHERE SREF SHOWS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. MOD/HVY RNFL AXIS FROM
THE OH VLY SHOULD STRETCH INTO SW PA/LAURELS WITH D1 24HR QPF
AMTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE JST/AOO AREA. FOLLOWED BLEND MORE IN-LINE
WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AS GFS DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT EVOLUTION OF PCPN.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SEWD LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER INTO THURS. NLY LLVL
FLOW WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE NRN PART OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SRN PA WILL LKLY CONT TO HAVE SHOWERS AS MSTR AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG STALLED E-W FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN FAVOR OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROF DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH ONTARIO AND
CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHORTLIVED IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL PA.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION LATE THIS
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS DECIDEDLY FAVORING QPF
FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GLAKS. ECMWF APPEARS MORE REALISTIC IN ITS DEPICTION OF
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS IN THIS REGIME. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IT
APPEARS WILL HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE SAT-SUN CUTOFF AND
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IS FAIRLY LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE IS EVIDENCE OF THIS...WITH 24 HOUR
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE SAT-SUN TIMEFRAME ONLY
TOPPING OUT AT 30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ AND WESTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL PA EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. WHILE
NO THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS SEEN AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL THE END OF THIS
PERIOD OF SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/12Z...IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SEWD ACRS
THE MIDWEST...COMBINATION OF STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT VIA SWLY LLJ
AND BROAD VERTICAL LIFT ASSOC WITH MID-UPPER TROUGH MOVG EWD ACRS
SERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT NMRS RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACRS THE
AREA THRU EARLY THURS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE PA/MD
BORDER INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN MOVG NEWD
THRU CENTRAL PA...IMPACTING LNS/MDT/UNV/BFD BTWN 12-13Z AND IPT
BTWN 13-15Z. FQNT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH AN
ISOLD TSTM PSBL MAINLY OVR THE SRN TERMINALS. IFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AT BFD. SSW WIND AT JST FAVORS
MVFR OVER IFR..BUT WILL KEEP IFR THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MVFR
TO VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR NORTH/MVFR SOUTH. SHOWERS LKLY SRN AIRFIELDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 605 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN PERSISTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA AND CARVE OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
S/W EVIDENT OVR SERN OH/NRN WV PER RADAR/SATL IMAGERY IS COMBINING
WITH 40-50KT WSWLY LLJ /ILM VWP/ AND AXIS OF HI PWATS TO PRODUCE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS NWWD TO CLEVELAND. THE LATEST HRRR TAKES THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS ACRS THE S-CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 09-12Z...WEAKENING WITH EWD
EXTENT AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE NOSE OF LLJ AND REACH THE LWR
SUSQ VLY BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR..EXPECT
CVRG OF SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE WITH THE BEST CHC FOR
RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM UNV-BFD.

THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE PCPN THRU MID
MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVG THRU CVG ATTM AND WILL LKLY BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ACRS WRN PA BY EARLY
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MDLS SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE FINER QPF DETAILS OF
THE FCST EVEN AT 6 HRLY TIME STEPS...THEY ARE OTHERWISE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RNFL AXIS SETTING UP ALONG DEEP MSTR AXIS
STRADDLING THE OH RVR AND EXTENDING ENEWD ACRS SW/S-CENTRAL PA.
WAA/ISENT LIFT VIA STG WSWLY LLJ ALONG WITH ENHANCED LG SCALE LIFT
NEAR RIGHT ENT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT A FEW ISOLD
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN PA WHERE SREF SHOWS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. MOD/HVY RNFL AXIS FROM
THE OH VLY SHOULD STRETCH INTO SW PA/LAURELS WITH D1 24HR QPF
AMTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE JST/AOO AREA. FOLLOWED BLEND MORE IN-LINE
WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AS GFS DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT EVOLUTION OF PCPN.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SEWD LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER INTO THURS. NLY LLVL
FLOW WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE NRN PART OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SRN PA WILL LKLY CONT TO HAVE SHOWERS AS MSTR AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG STALLED E-W FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN FAVOR OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROF DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH ONTARIO AND
CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHORTLIVED IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL PA.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION LATE THIS
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS DECIDEDLY FAVORING QPF
FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GLAKS. ECMWF APPEARS MORE REALISTIC IN ITS DEPICTION OF
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS IN THIS REGIME. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IT
APPEARS WILL HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE SAT-SUN CUTOFF AND
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IS FAIRLY LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE IS EVIDENCE OF THIS...WITH 24 HOUR
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE SAT-SUN TIMEFRAME ONLY
TOPPING OUT AT 30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ AND WESTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL PA EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. WHILE
NO THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS SEEN AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL THE END OF THIS
PERIOD OF SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/09Z UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 06Z TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR OCNL TS EMBEDDED WITHIN LGT/MOD RA MOVG THRU JST/AOO
TERMINALS. THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD REACH THE MDT/LNS AREA BTWN
11-12Z. NRN TERMINALS SHOULD STAY DRY THRU 11Z BEFORE BAND OF
SHOWERS NEAR BFD-UNV LINE BTWN 12-13Z. IPT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU
12Z. LOW IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT BFD WITH LOWER END MVFR AT JST.
AOO/UNV/IPT WILL STAY MVFR WITH MAINLY VFR AT MDT/LNS.

26/06Z...
IN ADVANCE OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY SEWD ACRS THE
GRT LKS INTO THE OH VLY...COMBINATION OF STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT VIA
SWLY LLJ AND BROAD LIFT ASSOC WITH MID-UPPER TROUGH MOVG EWD ACRS
SERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL DATA INDICATES HIGHEST PROBABILITY/GREATEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM EITHER SIDE OF THE OH RVR
ENEWD ACRS S-CENTRAL PA INTO THE NRN MID-ATLC STATES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LOCATED FROM SRN OH INTO SW PA. THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACRS THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SSW TO WNW BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR
THE PA/MD BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 06Z OBS SHOW AREA OF LOW
IFR CIGS CONFINED THE NW PA WHICH SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...MVFR TO VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOSE OF 30-40KT WSW LLJ WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS AT
JST/AOO/UNV IN THE 30-35KT RANGE THRU MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR NORTH/MVFR SOUTH. SHOWERS LKLY SRN AIRFIELDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 142 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
STALLS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE TREND FOR A SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH DEVELOP OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES. HAVE CONFINED THE CHANCES TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
BASED UPON THE LATEST UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE REGION. DISPITE THIS TREND...THOSE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. THE LATEST DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BY SPC PLACES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THESE TWO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE ADJUSTING THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THE CONCERN IS FOR SOME STORMS TO CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 940 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOW MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WAVES
OF ENERGY WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND BRINGING ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BRUSH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GREATEST EXTENT OF THE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A MATOKA WV TO A GOSHEN VA
LINE.

OUR EARLIER FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO OUR REGION. OTHER THAN
THAT...HAVE MAKE TWEAKS IN THE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND...AND SKY COVER TO DEPICT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN MOVE EAST. 500
MB PATTERN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS ZONAL. FORECAST
AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
MUCH FASTER EAST THAN SOUTH AND SHOULD TRAIL FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREAS BUT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR
THURSDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE FRONT AT
4AM. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SO WILL
THE PRECIPITATION. SREF...LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF ALL BRING THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ENOUGH
HEATING THIS MORNING TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE SOONEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO HOLD UP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. STAYED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE REASON THIS FRONT IS SLOW TO
MOVE IS BECAUSE OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALSO TRAPPED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW
IS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEASTERN USA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WEDGE LOOKS SHALLOW AND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS INTO IT.

WITH ZONAL FLOW...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MID WEST TO SEE
IF ANY STRONG COMPLEXES DRIFT OUR WAY...AS IN THE CASE YESTERDAY.
FOR NOW...MODELS ONLY BRING WEAK WAVES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO GET A BOOST FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW UNLESS A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SURVIVES THE TRIP FROM THE
MID WEST. THE WAY THINGS ARE LOOKING NOW...ONLY ELEVATED THUNDER
FROM SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS ALONG AS THE FRONT STAYS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. IF SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE
REGION...ENOUGH ISOLATION SHOULD PEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
EXPECTED THURSDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE ACHIEVED FRIDAY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF. WITH RAIN EXPECTED...NEAR 80F IN THE EAST TO
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO PLAY HAVOC WITH OUR WEATHER AND THE
FORECAST IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...THEN AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO DEEPENS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...IT SHOULD BE PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER..THE SW FLOW ALOFT GIVEN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEING JUST WEST OF
US MAY HANG THE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA...WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
MOS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE WITH BOTH AGREEING ON THE NRN
STREAM LOW LIFTING NEWD BUT SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON THE SRN STREAM.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SHARPER TROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD SHIFT DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...BUT WITH
UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES...THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OFF AN UPPER HIGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DEPICTING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OVERALL...AND HPC LINGERS THE FRONT AROUND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
MON-TUE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINING. WEDGE MAY DEVELOP AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPING MORE CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...2AM...THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE ANTICIPATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY MVFR/IFR FOG IN MAINLY THE
GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE GONE WITH COMPARABLE
CONDITIONS AT KBCB AS OCCURRED THIS MORNING. AT KLWB...A
CIRR0STRATUS CEILING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP KEEP CONDITIONS FROM DROPPING
BELOW IFR AS OCCURRED THIS MORNING. HOWVER...THE PRESENCE OF THESE
CLOUDS WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY LONGER RECOVERY TIME TO VFR THURSDAY
MORNING AT KLWB AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR OR NORTH OF KLWB. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
PREVAILING OR TEMPO CONDITIONS FOR THESE AT KLWB AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE EXPCECT ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER ON THURSDAY...KBLF...IN ADDITION TO
KLWB...WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS NEAR IT BY 18Z...2PM. AGAIN HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
AND THE TIME SCALE FROM NOW.

MVFR CONDITIONS AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION...STALLS...AND THEN HEADS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1249 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
STALLS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE TREND FOR A SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH DEVELOP OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES. HAVE CONFINED THE CHANCES TO
PRIMARILY NORTHERN GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
BASED UPON THE LATEST UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE REGION. DISPITE THIS TREND...THOSE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. THE LATEST DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BY SPC PLACES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THESE TWO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE ADJUSTING THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THE CONCERN IS FOR SOME STORMS TO CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 940 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOW MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WAVES
OF ENERGY WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND BRINGING ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BRUSH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GREATEST EXTENT OF THE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A MATOKA WV TO A GOSHEN VA
LINE.

OUR EARLIER FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO OUR REGION. OTHER THAN
THAT...HAVE MAKE TWEAKS IN THE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND...AND SKY COVER TO DEPICT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN MOVE EAST. 500
MB PATTERN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS ZONAL. FORECAST
AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
MUCH FASTER EAST THAN SOUTH AND SHOULD TRAIL FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREAS BUT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR
THURSDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE FRONT AT
4AM. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SO WILL
THE PRECIPITATION. SREF...LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF ALL BRING THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ENOUGH
HEATING THIS MORNING TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE SOONEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO HOLD UP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. STAYED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE REASON THIS FRONT IS SLOW TO
MOVE IS BECAUSE OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALSO TRAPPED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW
IS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEASTERN USA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WEDGE LOOKS SHALLOW AND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS INTO IT.

WITH ZONAL FLOW...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MID WEST TO SEE
IF ANY STRONG COMPLEXES DRIFT OUR WAY...AS IN THE CASE YESTERDAY.
FOR NOW...MODELS ONLY BRING WEAK WAVES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO GET A BOOST FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW UNLESS A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SURVIVES THE TRIP FROM THE
MID WEST. THE WAY THINGS ARE LOOKING NOW...ONLY ELEVATED THUNDER
FROM SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS ALONG AS THE FRONT STAYS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. IF SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE
REGION...ENOUGH ISOLATION SHOULD PEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
EXPECTED THURSDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE ACHIEVED FRIDAY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF. WITH RAIN EXPECTED...NEAR 80F IN THE EAST TO
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO PLAY HAVOC WITH OUR WEATHER AND THE
FORECAST IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...THEN AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO DEEPENS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...IT SHOULD BE PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER..THE SW FLOW ALOFT GIVEN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEING JUST WEST OF
US MAY HANG THE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA...WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
MOS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE WITH BOTH AGREEING ON THE NRN
STREAM LOW LIFTING NEWD BUT SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON THE SRN STREAM.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SHARPER TROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD SHIFT DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...BUT WITH
UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES...THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OFF AN UPPER HIGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DEPICTING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OVERALL...AND HPC LINGERS THE FRONT AROUND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
MON-TUE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINING. WEDGE MAY DEVELOP AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPING MORE CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT PATCHY FOG AT BCB TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z/8PM TONIGHT IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE REMAINS
WEST AND NORTH OF LWB.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES AT
LWB AND BLF.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY
AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT LWB/BCB...AND
AT ANY SITES THAT GET PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/RAB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 951 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
STALLS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOW MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WAVES
OF ENERGY WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND BRINGING ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BRUSH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GREATEST EXTENT OF THE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A MATOKA WV TO A GOSHEN VA
LINE.

OUR EARLIER FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO OUR REGION. OTHER THAN
THAT...HAVE MAKE TWEAKS IN THE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND...AND SKY COVER TO DEPICT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN MOVE EAST. 500
MB PATTERN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS ZONAL. FORECAST
AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
MUCH FASTER EAST THAN SOUTH AND SHOULD TRAIL FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREAS BUT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR
THURSDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE FRONT AT
4AM. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SO WILL
THE PRECIPITATION. SREF...LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF ALL BRING THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ENOUGH
HEATING THIS MORNING TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE SOONEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO HOLD UP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. STAYED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE REASON THIS FRONT IS SLOW TO
MOVE IS BECAUSE OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALSO TRAPPED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW
IS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEASTERN USA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WEDGE LOOKS SHALLOW AND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS INTO IT.

WITH ZONAL FLOW...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MID WEST TO SEE
IF ANY STRONG COMPLEXES DRIFT OUR WAY...AS IN THE CASE YESTERDAY.
FOR NOW...MODELS ONLY BRING WEAK WAVES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO GET A BOOST FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW UNLESS A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SURVIVES THE TRIP FROM THE
MID WEST. THE WAY THINGS ARE LOOKING NOW...ONLY ELEVATED THUNDER
FROM SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS ALONG AS THE FRONT STAYS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. IF SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE
REGION...ENOUGH ISOLATION SHOULD PEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
EXPECTED THURSDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE ACHIEVED FRIDAY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF. WITH RAIN EXPECTED...NEAR 80F IN THE EAST TO
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO PLAY HAVOC WITH OUR WEATHER AND THE
FORECAST IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...THEN AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO DEEPENS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...IT SHOULD BE PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER..THE SW FLOW ALOFT GIVEN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEING JUST WEST OF
US MAY HANG THE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA...WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
MOS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE WITH BOTH AGREEING ON THE NRN
STREAM LOW LIFTING NEWD BUT SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON THE SRN STREAM.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SHARPER TROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD SHIFT DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...BUT WITH
UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES...THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OFF AN UPPER HIGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DEPICTING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OVERALL...AND HPC LINGERS THE FRONT AROUND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
MON-TUE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINING. WEDGE MAY DEVELOP AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPING MORE CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT PATCHY FOG AT BCB TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z/8PM TONIGHT IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE REMAINS
WEST AND NORTH OF LWB.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES AT
LWB AND BLF.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY
AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT LWB/BCB...AND
AT ANY SITES THAT GET PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/RAB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 748 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
STALLS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THIS FROM WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN MOVE EAST. 500
MB PATTERN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS ZONAL. FORECAST
AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
MUCH FASTER EAST THAN SOUTH AND SHOULD TRAIL FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREAS BUT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR
THURSDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE FRONT AT
4AM. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SO WILL
THE PRECIPITATION. SREF...LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF ALL BRING THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ENOUGH
HEATING THIS MORNING TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE SOONEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO HOLD UP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. STAYED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE REASON THIS FRONT IS SLOW TO
MOVE IS BECAUSE OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALSO TRAPPED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW
IS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEASTERN USA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WEDGE LOOKS SHALLOW AND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS INTO IT.

WITH ZONAL FLOW...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MID WEST TO SEE
IF ANY STRONG COMPLEXES DRIFT OUR WAY...AS IN THE CASE YESTERDAY.
FOR NOW...MODELS ONLY BRING WEAK WAVES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO GET A BOOST FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW UNLESS A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SURVIVES THE TRIP FROM THE
MID WEST. THE WAY THINGS ARE LOOKING NOW...ONLY ELEVATED THUNDER
FROM SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS ALONG AS THE FRONT STAYS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. IF SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE
REGION...ENOUGH ISOLATION SHOULD PEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
EXPECTED THURSDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE ACHIEVED FRIDAY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF. WITH RAIN EXPECTED...NEAR 80F IN THE EAST TO
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO PLAY HAVOC WITH OUR WEATHER AND THE
FORECAST IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...THEN AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO DEEPENS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...IT SHOULD BE PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER..THE SW FLOW ALOFT GIVEN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEING JUST WEST OF
US MAY HANG THE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA...WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
MOS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE WITH BOTH AGREEING ON THE NRN
STREAM LOW LIFTING NEWD BUT SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON THE SRN STREAM.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SHARPER TROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD SHIFT DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...BUT WITH
UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES...THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OFF AN UPPER HIGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DEPICTING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OVERALL...AND HPC LINGERS THE FRONT AROUND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
MON-TUE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINING. WEDGE MAY DEVELOP AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPING MORE CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT PATCHY FOG AT BCB TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z/8PM TONIGHT IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE REMAINS
WEST AND NORTH OF LWB.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES AT
LWB AND BLF.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY
AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT LWB/BCB...AND
AT ANY SITES THAT GET PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/RAB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 436 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
STALLS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THIS FROM WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN MOVE EAST. 500
MB PATTERN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS ZONAL. FORECAST
AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
MUCH FASTER EAST THAN SOUTH AND SHOULD TRAIL FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREAS BUT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR
THURSDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE FRONT AT
4AM. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SO WILL
THE PRECIPITATION. SREF...LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF ALL BRING THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ENOUGH
HEATING THIS MORNING TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE SOONEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO HOLD UP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. STAYED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE REASON THIS FRONT IS SLOW TO
MOVE IS BECAUSE OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALSO TRAPPED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW
IS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEASTERN USA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WEDGE LOOKS SHALLOW AND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS INTO IT.

WITH ZONAL FLOW...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MID WEST TO SEE
IF ANY STRONG COMPLEXES DRIFT OUR WAY...AS IN THE CASE YESTERDAY.
FOR NOW...MODELS ONLY BRING WEAK WAVES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO GET A BOOST FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW UNLESS A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SURVIVES THE TRIP FROM THE
MID WEST. THE WAY THINGS ARE LOOKING NOW...ONLY ELEVATED THUNDER
FROM SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS ALONG AS THE FRONT STAYS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. IF SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE
REGION...ENOUGH ISOLATION SHOULD PEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
EXPECTED THURSDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE ACHIEVED FRIDAY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF. WITH RAIN EXPECTED...NEAR 80F IN THE EAST TO
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO PLAY HAVOC WITH OUR WEATHER AND THE
FORECAST IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...THEN AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO DEEPENS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...IT SHOULD BE PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER..THE SW FLOW ALOFT GIVEN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEING JUST WEST OF
US MAY HANG THE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA...WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SHOWERS
AROUND. THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
MOS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE WITH BOTH AGREEING ON THE NRN
STREAM LOW LIFTING NEWD BUT SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON THE SRN STREAM.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SHARPER TROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD SHIFT DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...BUT WITH
UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES...THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OFF AN UPPER HIGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DEPICTING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OVERALL...AND HPC LINGERS THE FRONT AROUND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
MON-TUE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINING. WEDGE MAY DEVELOP AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPING MORE CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED CLOUDS ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS
MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. FOG WAS FORMING...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL EARLIER ON TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR FOG AT LYH/BCB AND LWB BEFORE
14Z/10AM.

CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF LWB. WINDS
WSW-SW 7-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CREEP BACK UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SO PATCHY MORNING
FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT LWB/BCB...AND AT ANY
SITE THAT SEES PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/RAB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
CANADA...RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER. JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALONG WITH LAKESHORE. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST WI
DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEING
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRUSHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS IT DOES SO. WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER WISCONSIN...DRY AIR AND A LACK OF
FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT SAT ELITE AND RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA NEAR THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE IS CONFINED TO 925
AND 850MB...SO USED THIS INFORMATION FOR CLOUD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CU FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE SUNSET OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT WILL LINGER NEAR THE LAKESHORE
WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW. THE NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED AT
FIRST...BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS SUN AIDS IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
SUFFICIENT 850MB MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUDS AS IT IS NEAREST TO THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

DIDNT CHANGE MUCH TEMPERATURE-WISE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS AGAIN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WI WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THINK TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE CANADIAN AND
THE 12Z LOW RES ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST THAN BOTH THE CANADIAN/GFS.
DID NOT RECEIVE THE 12Z HIGH ECMWF...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. IF ECMWF
TREND IS CORRECT...LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ENERGY
PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. DID LOWER MIN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS NORTH AND WEST OF GREEN BAY
AND THE FOX CITES. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON
FRIDAY BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN
4000-6000FT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WI TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. AT 06Z A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAND OF MVFR
CIGS WERE GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SHAWANO TO CLINTONVILLE TO
WAUPACA.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY OR WEDNESDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000FT. A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SB
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 156 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE AWAY ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION IS APPROACHING. THIS WILL BRING THE MOST
SYNOPTIC FORCING AFTER 6Z AS NOTED FROM 850-500MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN LAYER PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...PRETTY
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE MODEL FIELDS ALONG
THE 300 K ISENTROPE STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS SUGGEST
RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO FIT WITH LINEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS OF CURRENT
RADAR REFLECTIVITY. WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN MENTION.
ALSO...THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS OF MUCAPE OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG SO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT
RESTRICTED THIS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION.

MIN TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THESE AND THE DEWPOINTS FIELDS. STILL LOOKING AT A GENERAL RANGE
OF MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVIEST RAIN VIA BEST ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED MORE JUST
TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING...BUT EVEN SO NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS FRI AFTERNOON...COMBO OF GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY JUST TO ITS
EAST WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS. MOST MODELS ARE
UNDERPLAYING THIS...EXCEPT FOR THE 12Z RGEM WHICH IS A VERY WET
OUTLIER WITH UP TO 2 INCHES TOTAL QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN CT FRI
AFTERNOON. NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS MAY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SFC-BASED AND WHERE A FEW GUSTY
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS COMBO OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX AND POSSIBLE INDUCED
SFC WAVE SWEEP ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT...SO HAVE JUST CONTINUED A GENERIC CHANCE POP
DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED..ALBEIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM AS
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WELL OFF
THE EAST COAST ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS TO START OFF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WITH
THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK METRO AREA.

A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN SWINGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ALL
MODELS TRACK THIS LOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE GEM IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF...BUT WEAKENS IT AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO A COASTAL LOW. THE
ECMWF ALSO HAS THIS COASTAL LOW...BUT IT IS FARTHER OFFSHORE...MORE
ALIGNED WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAKER. SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH A SOLID HALF INCH OF QPF...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...ON THE
FRONT...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WINDS...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT MOVES ON SHORE FRIDAY
MORNING...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD GUST FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS...WILL ALSO
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 1500 TO 2500 FT.
MEANWHILE...VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO 3 TO 5 SM IN DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND FOG...AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2 SM IN RAIN AND FOG
TOWARD 12Z OR SO. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
MORNING...AROUND 12Z TO 18Z. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE
LOW PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT-TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TOWARD SAT MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE.
.SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE...BUILDING SEAS.

SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. EASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THIS TIME. OCEAN
SEAS SHOULD MAX OUT AT EITHER 6-7 FT...ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE 12Z
WAVEWATCH.

SCA CONDS SHOULD LINGER ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...THEN QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL MOSTLY NW OF THE LOW CENTER INITIALLY THIS MORNING...
FROM NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH/WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAIN FOCUS
SHOULD SHIFT TO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT IN THE AFTERNOON JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR MINOR
FLOODING. ISOLD FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH HEAVIEST TSTMS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
CT...BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLD TO WARRANT A WATCH. A
STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON
PLUS ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FT OF SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING
THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF WRN LONG ISLAND...AND ALONG WRN LONG
ISLAND SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 105 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE AWAY ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION IS APPROACHING. THIS WILL BRING THE MOST
SYNOPTIC FORCING AFTER 6Z AS NOTED FROM 850-500MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN LAYER PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...PRETTY
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE MODEL FIELDS ALONG
THE 300 K ISENTROPE STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS SUGGEST
RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO FIT WITH LINEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS OF CURRENT
RADAR REFLECTIVITY. WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN MENTION.
ALSO...THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS OF MUCAPE OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG SO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT
RESTRICTED THIS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION.

MIN TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THESE AND THE DEWPOINTS FIELDS. STILL LOOKING AT A GENERAL RANGE
OF MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVIEST RAIN VIA BEST ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED MORE JUST
TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING...BUT EVEN SO NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS FRI AFTERNOON...COMBO OF GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY JUST TO ITS
EAST WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS. MOST MODELS ARE
UNDERPLAYING THIS...EXCEPT FOR THE 12Z RGEM WHICH IS A VERY WET
OUTLIER WITH UP TO 2 INCHES TOTAL QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN CT FRI
AFTERNOON. NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS MAY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SFC-BASED AND WHERE A FEW GUSTY
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS COMBO OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX AND POSSIBLE INDUCED
SFC WAVE SWEEP ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT...SO HAVE JUST CONTINUED A GENERIC CHANCE POP
DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED..ALBEIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM AS
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WELL OFF
THE EAST COAST ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS TO START OFF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WITH
THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK METRO AREA.

A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN SWINGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ALL
MODELS TRACK THIS LOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE GEM IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF...BUT WEAKENS IT AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO A COASTAL LOW. THE
ECMWF ALSO HAS THIS COASTAL LOW...BUT IT IS FARTHER OFFSHORE...MORE
ALIGNED WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAKER. SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH A SOLID HALF INCH OF QPF...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE...ON THE FRONT...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AND
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WINDS AND GUSTS...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THE WARM
FRONT MOVES ON SHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VFR CONDITIONS LOWER WITH 1500 TO 2500 FT CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO 3 TO 5 SM IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
FOG...AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 2 SM IN RAIN AND FOG TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
MORNING...AROUND 12Z TO 18Z. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED COVERAGE.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT-TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TOWARD SAT MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE.
.SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE...BUILDING SEAS.

SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. EASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THIS TIME. OCEAN
SEAS SHOULD MAX OUT AT EITHER 6-7 FT...ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE 12Z
WAVEWATCH.

SCA CONDS SHOULD LINGER ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...THEN QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL MOSTLY NW OF THE LOW CENTER INITIALLY THIS MORNING...
FROM NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH/WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAIN FOCUS
SHOULD SHIFT TO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT IN THE AFTERNOON JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR MINOR
FLOODING. ISOLD FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH HEAVIEST TSTMS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
CT...BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLD TO WARRANT A WATCH. A
STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON
PLUS ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FT OF SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING
THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF WRN LONG ISLAND...AND ALONG WRN LONG
ISLAND SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 426 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

A LARGE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL SHOWING VERY SMALL QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND HRRR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THOUGH
MAKING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN DIFFICULT AND DRY ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
CURRENTLY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SOME SHOWERS FIRING UP IN FRONT OF IT. ULTIMATELY THINK
THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AS THEY HEAD EAST SO
MAY WIND UP JUST BEING SPRINKLES BY THE TIME THEY REACH
INDIANA...BUT COULD ALSO SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO EEK OUT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THUS WILL GO WITH AROUND A 30 POP IN THE
SOUTH...TIMED OUT TO MATCH WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHIELD IN WESTERN ILLINOIS. DON/T SEE INSTABILITY GETTING THIS FAR
NORTH SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. BY AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY. CU RULE SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
DECREASING BY EVENING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASING BUT NOT
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS THINK HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER AND THE MAV NUMBERS WENT
WELL WITH THIS THEORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS. FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERN INDIANA
OR OHIO COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER SKY COVER HERE...BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND THE FEATURE ITSELF POTENTIALLY BEING FURTHER EAST
PRECLUDE ANY POP MENTION.

GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS GUIDANCE
DID A BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS EXPECTING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR HIGHS USED A CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY...BUT WENT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TOO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW PER THE CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION.

PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST BASED ON THE
REMAINING LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 144 HOUR GEM FRONTAL
POSITION FROM THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PULLED
SMALL POPS FROM THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ILX...PAH...LMK AND ILN. WITH THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST
PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW MEAN LEVEL
RH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FROM THE CR INIT...EXCEPT WILL BUMP THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY BASED ON LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 00Z
ECMWF 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE CELSIUS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z TAF UPDATES/...

ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

BMG CEILING AND VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE OR WORSE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HUF WAS VFR WITH A 4K DECK AND
STILL 8 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO PULLED FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS THERE. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS FOG STILL LIKELY AT KIND...KHUF...KBMG...
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS FOG STILL POSSIBLE AT KLAF.  THIS WILL OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MAINLY FROM 09Z-14Z. SATELLITE AND
WEATHER DEPICTION IS SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR CEILINGS ADVANCING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 AT
KIND...KHUF AND KBMG. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND AND SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD INTO KLAF...BUT WEATHER DEPICTION
SHOWS SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO THE NORTHEAST OF KLAF.

ON FRIDAY...STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN UPPER 60S...SO EXPECT MOSTLY BROKEN 4 TO 5
THOUSAND CLOUDS MIDDAY ON WITH CLEARING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A VERY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
ALMOST NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AND 7 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 404 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

A LARGE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL SHOWING VERY SMALL QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND HRRR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THOUGH
MAKING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN DIFFICULT AND DRY ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
CURRENTLY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SOME SHOWERS FIRING UP IN FRONT OF IT. ULTIMATELY THINK
THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AS THEY HEAD EAST SO
MAY WIND UP JUST BEING SPRINKLES BY THE TIME THEY REACH INDIANA...BUT
COULD ALSO SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO EEK OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THUS WILL GO WITH AROUND A 30 POP IN THE SOUTH...TIMED OUT
TO MATCH WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD IN WESTERN
ILLINOIS. DON/T SEE INSTABILITY GETTING THIS FAR NORTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. BY AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY. CU
RULE SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER DECREASING BY EVENING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASING BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS
THINK HIGHS WILL BE NEAR YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER
AND THE MAV NUMBERS WENT WELL WITH THIS THEORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS. FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERN INDIANA
OR OHIO COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER SKY COVER HERE...BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND THE FEATURE ITSELF POTENTIALLY BEING FURTHER EAST
PRECLUDE ANY POP MENTION.

GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS GUIDANCE
DID A BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS EXPECTING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR HIGHS USED A CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY...BUT WENT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TOO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW PER THE CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION.

PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST BASED ON THE
REMAINING LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 144 HOUR GEM FRONTAL
POSITION FROM THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PULLED
SMALL POPS FROM THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ILX...PAH...LMK AND ILN. WITH THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST
PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW MEAN LEVEL
RH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FROM THE CR INIT...EXCEPT WILL BUMP THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY BASED ON LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 00Z
ECMWF 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE CELSIUS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS FOG STILL LIKELY AT KIND...KHUF...KBMG...
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS FOG STILL POSSIBLE AT KLAF.  THIS WILL OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MAINLY FROM 09Z-14Z. SATELLITE AND
WEATHER DEPICTION IS SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR CEILINGS ADVANCING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 AT
KIND...KHUF AND KBMG. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND AND SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD INTO KLAF...BUT WEATHER DEPICTION
SHOWS SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO THE NORTHEAST OF KLAF.

ON FRIDAY...STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN UPPER 60S...SO EXPECT MOSTLY BROKEN 4 TO 5
THOUSAND CLOUDS MIDDAY ON WITH CLEARING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A VERY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
ALMOST NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AND 7 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 102 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. A +80KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS CLIMBING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND JUST NOSING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. NEAR THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS HELPING
INFLUENCE AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 237 PM
CDT THU SEP 27 2012

THE FIRST PRIORITY FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
ARE OF A SECONDARY CONCERN. THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS OUR
SOUTHWEST CORNER, SOUTHWEST OF A HAMILTON TO GRANT TO SEWARD LINE,
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE. I THINK THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO OR THREE
HAIL PRODUCERS IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST CORNER, BUT MAINLY AFTER 9 PM CDT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS JUST MARGINAL CAPE THIS EVENING IN THE 1000
J/KG, THE RUC MODEL HAS LITTLE OR NO 0-6 KM HELICITY, AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS FOR A POINT NEAR
RICHFIELD SHOW -5.8 LI`S BY 06Z.  IF THERE IS SOME SEVERE, IT WILL
BE A LATE SHOW AFTER 9PM CDT.  WE HELD A EMS/KDOT/FEMA CONTACTS,
AND TOLD THEM POSSIBLE HAILERS WITH UP TO GOLF BALL HAIL AFTER 7 PM
CDT, SO THEY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF NOTICE.

AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTION, THERE IS A GOOD
WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THEREFORE, THERE
WILL BE INCREASING POPS AFTER 06Z, FROM WEST TO EAST.  THERE COULD
BE A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT, BUT DID NOT OVERDO THE RAINFALL
QPF SINCE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPOTTY SUCH AS THE LAST
SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  LAST NIGHT, DOWN NEAR LIBERAL, WE
HAD ONE RAINFALL REPORT OF 3.50 INCHES 2 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
AND ANOTHER REPORT OF 2.61 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF ROLLA. SO, WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKE THAT IS NOT EXPECTED
AGAIN.  THE RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FOR NEAR ELKHART SHOWED 1.13
INCHES AT 06Z.  OUR EASTERN CWA SHOULD STAY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH
3-5SM FOG, AND THE WEST WILL LIKELY SEE EVEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY
UNDER THE THICK CLOUDS, AND SHOULD ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S
IN THE WEST AND THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY COULD STILL BE WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF A LINE FROM
HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY MORNING THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON EVENT. POPS WILL BE 40 TO
50 PERCENT EAST OF THAT LINE ABOVE, WITH 30 TO 40 POPS WEST OF THAT
LINE.  HOW MUCH RAIN IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION CALLERS SEEM TO ASK,
BUT DO NOT THINK ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE PULLING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT BUT STEADY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.  FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOL
ONE, AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES OF ELLIS, EDWARDS AND CLARK COUNTIES (AND EAST) AND
IN THE LOWER 70S TO DOWN NEAR 70F DEGREES OUT WEST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER NEAR THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

FRIDAY NIGHT:

CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE WANE FRIDAY EVENING AS A 90 KT
250 HPA JET STREAK TRAVERSES QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE AND AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. AS A RESULT, HAVE RAMPED POPS DOWN SOONER
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS FOG.
BUFKIT/BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. THIS IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS
KANSAS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN CALM. HAVE INSERTED AREAS OF
FOG IN THE WX GRIDS AS BETTER CONFIDENCE OF FOG VIA THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW RH PROGS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:

THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, THE WARM PLUME SPREADING EAST, AND LACK OF
REAL SURFACE MOISTURE & CONVERGENCE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SUNDAY
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT/TROF AXIS WHICH COULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINLY USE THE 12Z ECMWF
FOR GUIDANCE IN CONCERNING THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW. SLIGHT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW AND RESULTED IN NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR
TO THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWERING PRESSURES
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES
BY NEXT THURSDAY. WILL NOT STRAY FROM WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES ME AS
THE VALUES LOOK REASONABLE WITH HIGHS COOLING DOWN INTO THE 70S DEG
F. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD
AND ELONGATED SO ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITHIN A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF KGCK AND
KDDC...GENERALLY AFTER 07Z...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  55  76  54 /  50  20  10  10
GCK  73  54  75  54 /  40  20  10  10
EHA  72  53  76  54 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  74  55  76  54 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  75  53  76  53 /  40  20  10  10
P28  77  58  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 237 PM
CDT THU SEP 27 2012

THE FIRST PRIORITY FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
ARE OF A SECONDARY CONCERN. THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS OUR
SOUTHWEST CORNER, SOUTHWEST OF A HAMILTON TO GRANT TO SEWARD LINE,
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE. I THINK THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO OR THREE
HAIL PRODUCERS IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST CORNER, BUT MAINLY AFTER 9 PM CDT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS JUST MARGINAL CAPE THIS EVENING IN THE 1000
J/KG, THE RUC MODEL HAS LITTLE OR NO 0-6 KM HELICITY, AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS FOR A POINT NEAR
RICHFIELD SHOW -5.8 LI`S BY 06Z.  IF THERE IS SOME SEVERE, IT WILL
BE A LATE SHOW AFTER 9PM CDT.  WE HELD A EMS/KDOT/FEMA CONTACTS,
AND TOLD THEM POSSIBLE HAILERS WITH UP TO GOLF BALL HAIL AFTER 7 PM
CDT, SO THEY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF NOTICE.

AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTION, THERE IS A GOOD
WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THEREFORE, THERE
WILL BE INCREASING POPS AFTER 06Z, FROM WEST TO EAST.  THERE COULD
BE A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT, BUT DID NOT OVERDO THE RAINFALL
QPF SINCE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPOTTY SUCH AS THE LAST
SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  LAST NIGHT, DOWN NEAR LIBERAL, WE
HAD ONE RAINFALL REPORT OF 3.50 INCHES 2 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
AND ANOTHER REPORT OF 2.61 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF ROLLA. SO, WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKE THAT IS NOT EXPECTED
AGAIN.  THE RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FOR NEAR ELKHART SHOWED 1.13
INCHES AT 06Z.  OUR EASTERN CWA SHOULD STAY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH
3-5SM FOG, AND THE WEST WILL LIKELY SEE EVEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY
UNDER THE THICK CLOUDS, AND SHOULD ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S
IN THE WEST AND THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY COULD STILL BE WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF A LINE FROM
HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY MORNING THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON EVENT. POPS WILL BE 40 TO
50 PERCENT EAST OF THAT LINE ABOVE, WITH 30 TO 40 POPS WEST OF THAT
LINE.  HOW MUCH RAIN IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION CALLERS SEEM TO ASK,
BUT DO NOT THINK ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE PULLING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT BUT STEADY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.  FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOL
ONE, AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES OF ELLIS, EDWARDS AND CLARK COUNTIES (AND EAST) AND
IN THE LOWER 70S TO DOWN NEAR 70F DEGREES OUT WEST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER NEAR THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

FRIDAY NIGHT:

CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE WANE FRIDAY EVENING AS A 90 KT
250 HPA JET STREAK TRAVERSES QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE AND AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. AS A RESULT, HAVE RAMPED POPS DOWN SOONER
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS FOG.
BUFKIT/BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. THIS IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS
KANSAS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN CALM. HAVE INSERTED AREAS OF
FOG IN THE WX GRIDS AS BETTER CONFIDENCE OF FOG VIA THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW RH PROGS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:

THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, THE WARM PLUME SPREADING EAST, AND LACK OF
REAL SURFACE MOISTURE & CONVERGENCE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SUNDAY
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT/TROF AXIS WHICH COULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINLY USE THE 12Z ECMWF
FOR GUIDANCE IN CONCERNING THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW. SLIGHT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW AND RESULTED IN NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR
TO THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWERING PRESSURES
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES
BY NEXT THURSDAY. WILL NOT STRAY FROM WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES ME AS
THE VALUES LOOK REASONABLE WITH HIGHS COOLING DOWN INTO THE 70S DEG
F. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD
AND ELONGATED SO ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITHIN A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF KGCK AND
KDDC...GENERALLY AFTER 07Z...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  73  56  76 /  60  50  20  10
GCK  56  71  55  75 /  60  40  10  10
EHA  55  72  55  76 /  70  40  10  10
LBL  56  73  56  76 /  70  50  20  10
HYS  56  73  55  76 /  40  50  10  10
P28  60  75  60  77 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TODAY)

THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PD IS DETERMINING WHICH PARTS
OF THE CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN THROUGH 00Z.

07Z METARS AND MSAS SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
FIELDS DEPICTED AN E-W ORIENTED BDRY BISECTING THE CWA. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MO PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK
AT H25 OVER CENTRAL IL NOTED ON THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND
SUPPORTED BY AREA VWP/PROFILER OBS. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND RER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURVED JET STREAK
WERE SUPPORTING ISO-SCT SHRA ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE BDRY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF
THE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH PCPN DIMINISHING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN TO THE
REGION AS A SFC HIGH SINKS SWD. HOWEVER...THE BDRY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT /ALBEIT SLOWLY SINKING SWD/ ACROSS PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED
UPSTREAM AT 07Z NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...MODELS DO SHOW SOME 300-250MB
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN CWA DURING THE DAY AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE CO/KS SHORTWAVE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISO-SCT
SHRA THIS AFTN INVOF THE BDRY.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TONIGHT - TUESDAY)

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS GIVEN US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX THIS PAST WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO NW TO N FLOW THAT SHOULD GIVE
US A QUIETER PERIOD FOR A BIT.  THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL INITIALLY
BE HELPED OUT BY A POLAR VORTEX DIGGING INTO THE GRTLKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND LATER BY A TROF THAT DIGS INTO THE CNTRL AND S CNTRL
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.  THE SFC IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A TROF
WILL TAKE A SWIPE MAINLY AT THE IL SIDE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL PWATS FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY...LIFTING MECHANISMS TOO WEAK...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.  NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH FAVOR THE MAV MOS NUMBERS WHICH IN MOST CASES ARE
RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN THE MET MOS.

UP UNTIL THIS POINT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.  WE
START TO SEE SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINNING MONDAY WHERE THE ECMWF
DRAGS A CDFNT THRU WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT WEST OF THE FA WHERE IT
THEN DISSIPATES IT AND RE-ESTABLISHES THE RIDGE.  IT APPEARS WITH
RESPECT TO THE BOTTOM LINE...THIS IS A MINOR QUIBBLE AS THE ECMWF
STRUGGLES TO BRING ANY MOISTURE UP IN TIME FOR WHEN IT BRINGS THE
CDFNT THRU...AND IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...SHOULD GO THRU DRY AS A
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SE WILL STEAL THE SHOW AND HOG THE SENSIBLE
WX.  WILL NEED TO WATCH EXACTLY WHERE THIS SERN CONUS SYSTEM GOES AS
IT COULD EDGE SOME PARTS OF SERN MO AND SRN IL ON MONDAY.  TEMPS
COULD BE A BIGGER SOURCE OF ERROR HERE...NAMELY IF THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GOES THRU OR NOT...BUT TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SEEM
THE BETTER BET.

(WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THEIR STANDOFF INTO THE MID AND LATER PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF FEATURES ZONAL FLOW RETURNING BUT MORE IN
THE FORM OF A PLATEAUED OUT BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS IT GETS ABSORBED.  EITHER WAY...BOTH ARE
TAKING ANOTHER...STRONGER...CDFNT THRU THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE DIFFS IN FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TIMING QUANDARY WITH THE
FRONT BY AS MUCH AS 24HRS.  THE GFS TAKES THE CDFNT THRU WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN/T UNTIL THURSDAY.  BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED AND WILL MAKE FOR
LIMITED AMOUNTS TO WORK WITH.  VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT
FRONT CAN GENERATE PCPN HERE BUT IF STRENGTH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IS
SUFFUCIENT...IT MAY.  ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
FRONT.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

HAVE ADDED VCSH AT KCOU AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAFS OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS AS SCATTERED -RA HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN MO AND WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NOT CERTAIN IF CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE
MVFR RANGE THROUGH 14Z...SO HAVE CIGS IN THE BKN035-040 RANGE.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...HAVE ADDED VCSH FROM 08-11Z TO REFLECT RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF -RA OVER CNTRL/WRN MO. THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PERSISTENT
10-15KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-3K FT NOTED ON THE KLSX AND TSTL WIND
PROFILES THAT WILL IS BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...DO NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN A PREDOMINANT
GROUP IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

BRITT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS        75  52  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
QUINCY          71  47  76  50 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBIA        73  48  75  51 /  10   0   0   0
JEFFERSON CITY  73  49  74  51 /  20   5   0   0
SALEM           72  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   5
FARMINGTON      72  50  73  50 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1152 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

HAVE REDUCED POPS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR DATA. STILL BELIEVE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE LATE TONIGHT. S/W
APPROACHING THE REGION SHUD HELP PROVIDE ENUF LIFT THAT ISOD TO
SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MO. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN ACROSS
SRN HALF OF THE CWA CO-LOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING AND WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY REMAINS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU MOST OF THE
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT CLOUDS AS THE S/W MOVES THRU.
IF ENUF CLEARING CAN OCCUR S OF THE FNT...DEVELOPMENT OF FG WILL
BECOME A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FG OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW AND ADDRESS IF/WHEN NEEDED.

TILLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

SYNOPSIS

WEAK ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH. THE BNDRY EXTENDS FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN OK...NE INTO CNTRL MO AND IL AND ON INTO
THE OH VLY. A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS PUSHING THRU SW MO AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THRU THIS EVENING.
DIURNAL SHRA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS NW AR AND S CNTRL
MO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. OTHER SHRAS HAVE FORMED ACROSS ERN
KS AND WRN MO ON WHAT IS PROBABLY THE ACTUAL FRONT. TO THE
NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CLEARED THE SKIES ACROSS
NTRHN MO AND W CNTRL IL.

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS THRU TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING THRU THE CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO I70 TODAY. SHRA/ISLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOT THE STHRN FA THIS EVENING AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A VORT
MAX RIDING ENE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. THE NAM AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOCAL WRF APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG WITH THIS ENERGY.
CONSEQUENTLY...THEY BOTH DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIP SOUTH OF I70 THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. I THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AND THE COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHRAS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

THE WEAK HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL DROP SSW TO LOWER MI BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO DROP THIS WEEKEND AND
TEMPER THE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. 850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A TIGHTER GRADIENT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DVLP THIS WKND IN RESPONSE TO A SW WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A
CHANGE IN THE WIND DIRECTION AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NE
SATURDAY/NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY
AFTN.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WENT WITH
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE ERN OZARKS TONIGHT FOR THE SAME REASON AS THE COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. TRIED TO USE THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR LOWS OVER
THE WKND. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DPS SHOULD CREATE COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MILLER

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

(SUNDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)

THIS APPEARS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GRT LKS LIFTS NE ON MONDAY.
IN IT/S WAKE IS A LW TROF THAT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY MIDWEEK.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BASE OF THE TROF TRIES TO CLOSE
OFF...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE
TN/OH VLYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROF ARE ABSORBED INTO THE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYS TO
THE EAST ATTM...BUT SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

HAVE ADDED VCSH AT KCOU AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAFS OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS AS SCATTERED -RA HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN MO AND WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NOT CERTAIN IF CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE
MVFR RANGE THROUGH 14Z...SO HAVE CIGS IN THE BKN035-040 RANGE.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...HAVE ADDED VCSH FROM 08-11Z TO REFLECT RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF -RA OVER CNTRL/WRN MO. THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PERSISTENT
10-15KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-3K FT NOTED ON THE KLSX AND TSTL WIND
PROFILES THAT WILL IS BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...DO NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN A PREDOMINANT
GROUP IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 358 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
LARGE SCALE UL LOW LOCATED ACRS LABRADOR AND OVR HUDSON BAY. S/WV
IS RIPPING THRU CNTRL PA...SPURRING SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NY/PA AND NJ
AT THIS HOUR. ELONGATED SFC LOW EXTNDS ACRS THE SPINE OF THE APPS.
GREATEST 3HR SFC PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED OVR ERN PA AND 00Z NAM/GFS
TENDS TO AGREE ON THIS MVMNT THRU 12Z.

HOW FAR NORTH THIS RAIN PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA IS UP FOR DEBATE AND
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF THE FA WL BE IMPACTED. NAM/GFS ARE
FURTHEST TO THE NORTH WITH THIS PCPN. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
CONFINED FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFORE HV DROPPED POPS ACRS FAR NRN
ZONES NORTH OF A PENN YAN TO SYR TO BOONVILLE LINE THRU 12Z.

AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO SATURATE DOWN WITH LKLY
POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THRU THE MRNG HRS. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WL BE PRESENT TWD DAYBREAK WITH
NAM INDICATING CAPES ARND 200 J/KG AND GFS AT 0 THRU THE DAY TODAY.
THUS HV ADDED IN SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA...MOCLDY SKIES WL BE PRESENT THRU THE DAY WITH
H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO BLO 10C. THUS HIGHS WL ONLY REACH TO NR 60F
ACRS UPSTATE NY WITH WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID-UPR 60S.

AS LOPRES WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE NE PCPN WL COME TO AN END BY 00Z.
TOTAL QPF AMNTS APPEAR TO BE ARND 1.00 INCH THRU 00Z TONIGHT ACRS
THE WRN CATS AND POCONOS. RMNDR OF THE REGION WL SEE AMNTS ARND 0.50
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
RAIN WL COME TO AN END BY SAT MRNG WITH H8 CLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING
INTO THE CWA. MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE MID-40S AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE U30S IN FAVORED LOW VLYS ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER WHERE CAA WL BE
STRONGEST. H5 LOW WL DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE
(NAM/GFS/EC) DROPPING IT TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 12Z SAT.

AS UL LOW APPCHS ON SAT ISOLD SHRAS WL DVLP ACRS THE CWA. THIS UL
LOPRES SYSTEM WL AFFECT CNTRL NY/NEPA THRU THE SHORT TERM. SFC LOW
WL DVLP AND MV INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH PCPN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

POPS INCRS FOR SUN AFTN AND INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH LKLY POPS
THRU 12Z MON. TEMPS DRG THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WL AVG NR
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF THIS
WEEKEND/S UPPER LOW. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO
POSSIBLE COLD FRONT WHICH IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS TO PASS WED
AFTERNOON EVENING. THIS SOLUTION HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE
00Z ECMWF WHICH TAKES A SFC LOW UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS IN RECENT
RUNS AND BASED ON THIS...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS BOTH TUE
AND TUE NGT. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM/S DEPARTURE...DRIER WX LOOKS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN RAIN SHIELD PUSHING THROUGH THE
TWIN TIERS AND REMAINDER OF NE PA THIS HR. SO FAR CONDITIONS HAVE
LARGELY REMAINED VFR...HOWEVER EXPECT CATEGORICAL DETERIORATION
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT SYR AND RME WHERE
RAIN SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. FOR NOW EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
BGM AFTER 08Z...WITH ELM/ITH/AVP LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO GO WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 00Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY ON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST (5-10 KTS) BY AFTERNOON AS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 322 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM OHIO. RAIN WILL MOSTLY FALL LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 AM UPDATE..

QUICK UPDATE TO RMV POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR TONIGHT. RADAR
POPUP SKEW-T ACRS THE NRN ZONES INDICATE DRY LAYER FM SFC-H7. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATE SAT/D AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH. THIS APPEARS TO SUPPORT BUFKIT SNDGS AND 00Z NAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOW SATURATION OF ATMOS AFT 12Z ACRS THE NORTH...THUS
HV TRIMMED POPS BACK THRU 12Z. PREVIOUS AFD BELOW.

9 PM UPDATE...

RAIN NOW MOVING INTO NEPA. FROM RADAR RETURNS BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
REMAIN HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS JUST
GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY...WITH DRY WEATHER NORTH OF
HERE.


7 PM UPDATE...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOW TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. THIS IS
MOST EVIDENT WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT SURFACE DEW POINTS...SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS CNY...BUT CREEPING INTO THE MID 50S DOWN IN
NEPA. AS OUR ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP AND WE BEGIN TO
SEE A MID DECK AROUND 5KFT DEVELOP...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN NEPA
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...OR JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 18Z NAM...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE ARW/NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD FOR
PRECIP TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NY/PA LINE THROUGH
06Z. IN FACT...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS
DELAYING THE RAIN MUCH LONGER ACROSS CNY...AND KEEPING THESE AREAS
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IF NOT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEW
QPF GUIDANCE IS IN FROM HPC AND AGREES WITH MORE EMPHASIS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AND DELAYED TIMING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


3 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL TRACK ENE INTO SE NY FRI AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW IS A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL INCREASE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST AND TAPS THE ATLANTIC. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SFC
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DECREASE SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES. LIFT WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES SOUTH PUTTING THE AREA
IN THE RIGHT REAR WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES IN FOR THE FRONT
LEFT QUAD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW STARTING
IN NE PA THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY TO JUST OVER AN INCH IN NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY FLASH FLOODING.
RIVERS WILL RISE SOME BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING
IN ATTM. FRIDAY GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND WENT CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
AFTER A QUIET MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CWA WILL BE WAITING FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SE INTO NY. MODELS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING BETTER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKES WILL BRING SOME CUMULUS. 850MB TEMPS
FALL BACK TO PLUS 3C.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE EXIT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.
MOST MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER NY AND PA LATE SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY DAY SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL MEAN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL MIDDAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF THIS
WEEKEND/S UPPER LOW. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO
POSSIBLE COLD FRONT WHICH IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS TO PASS WED
AFTERNOON EVENING. THIS SOLUTION HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE
00Z ECMWF WHICH TAKES A SFC LOW UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS IN RECENT
RUNS AND BASED ON THIS...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS BOTH TUE
AND TUE NGT. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM/S DEPARTURE...DRIER WX LOOKS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN RAIN SHIELD PUSHING THROUGH THE
TWIN TIERS AND REMAINDER OF NE PA THIS HR. SO FAR CONDITIONS HAVE
LARGELY REMAINED VFR...HOWEVER EXPECT CATEGORICAL DETERIORATION
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT SYR AND RME WHERE
RAIN SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. FOR NOW EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
BGM AFTER 08Z...WITH ELM/ITH/AVP LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO GO WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 00Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY ON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST (5-10 KTS) BY AFTERNOON AS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 151 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM OHIO. RAIN WILL MOSTLY FALL LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12 AM UPDATE..

QUICK UPDATE TO RMV POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR TONIGHT. RADAR
POPUP SKEW-T ACRS THE NRN ZONES INDICATE DRY LAYER FM SFC-H7. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATE SAT/D AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH. THIS APPEARS TO SUPPORT BUFKIT SNDGS AND 00Z NAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOW SATURATION OF ATMOS AFT 12Z ACRS THE NORTH...THUS
HV TRIMMED POPS BACK THRU 12Z. PREVIOUS AFD BELOW.

9 PM UPDATE...

RAIN NOW MOVING INTO NEPA. FROM RADAR RETURNS BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
REMAIN HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS JUST
GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY...WITH DRY WEATHER NORTH OF
HERE.


7 PM UPDATE...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOW TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. THIS IS
MOST EVIDENT WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT SURFACE DEW POINTS...SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS CNY...BUT CREEPING INTO THE MID 50S DOWN IN
NEPA. AS OUR ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP AND WE BEGIN TO
SEE A MID DECK AROUND 5KFT DEVELOP...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN NEPA
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...OR JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 18Z NAM...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE ARW/NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD FOR
PRECIP TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NY/PA LINE THROUGH
06Z. IN FACT...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS
DELAYING THE RAIN MUCH LONGER ACROSS CNY...AND KEEPING THESE AREAS
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IF NOT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEW
QPF GUIDANCE IS IN FROM HPC AND AGREES WITH MORE EMPHASIS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AND DELAYED TIMING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


3 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL TRACK ENE INTO SE NY FRI AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW IS A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL INCREASE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST AND TAPS THE ATLANTIC. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SFC
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DECREASE SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES. LIFT WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES SOUTH PUTTING THE AREA
IN THE RIGHT REAR WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES IN FOR THE FRONT
LEFT QUAD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW STARTING
IN NE PA THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY TO JUST OVER AN INCH IN NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY FLASH FLOODING.
RIVERS WILL RISE SOME BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING
IN ATTM. FRIDAY GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND WENT CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
AFTER A QUIET MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CWA WILL BE WAITING FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SE INTO NY. MODELS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING BETTER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKES WILL BRING SOME CUMULUS. 850MB TEMPS
FALL BACK TO PLUS 3C.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE EXIT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.
MOST MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER NY AND PA LATE SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY DAY SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL MEAN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL MIDDAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN RAIN SHIELD PUSHING THROUGH THE
TWIN TIERS AND REMAINDER OF NE PA THIS HR. SO FAR CONDITIONS HAVE
LARGELY REMAINED VFR...HOWEVER EXPECT CATEGORICAL DETERIORATION
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT SYR AND RME WHERE
RAIN SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. FOR NOW EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
BGM AFTER 08Z...WITH ELM/ITH/AVP LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO GO WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 00Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY ON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST (5-10 KTS) BY AFTERNOON AS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1227 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM OHIO. RAIN WILL MOSTLY FALL LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12 AM UPDATE..

QUICK UPDATE TO RMV POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR TONIGHT. RADAR
POPUP SKEW-T ACRS THE NRN ZONES INDICATE DRY LAYER FM SFC-H7. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATE SAT/D AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH. THIS APPEARS TO SUPPORT BUFKIT SNDGS AND 00Z NAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOW SATURATION OF ATMOS AFT 12Z ACRS THE NORTH...THUS
HV TRIMMED POPS BACK THRU 12Z. PREVIOUS AFD BELOW.

9 PM UPDATE...

RAIN NOW MOVING INTO NEPA. FROM RADAR RETURNS BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
REMAIN HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS JUST
GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY...WITH DRY WEATHER NORTH OF
HERE.


7 PM UPDATE...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOW TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. THIS IS
MOST EVIDENT WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT SURFACE DEW POINTS...SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS CNY...BUT CREEPING INTO THE MID 50S DOWN IN
NEPA. AS OUR ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP AND WE BEGIN TO
SEE A MID DECK AROUND 5KFT DEVELOP...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN NEPA
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...OR JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 18Z NAM...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE ARW/NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD FOR
PRECIP TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NY/PA LINE THROUGH
06Z. IN FACT...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS
DELAYING THE RAIN MUCH LONGER ACROSS CNY...AND KEEPING THESE AREAS
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IF NOT MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEW
QPF GUIDANCE IS IN FROM HPC AND AGREES WITH MORE EMPHASIS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AND DELAYED TIMING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


3 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL TRACK ENE INTO SE NY FRI AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW IS A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE LIFT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL INCREASE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST AND TAPS THE ATLANTIC. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SFC
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DECREASE SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES. LIFT WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES SOUTH PUTTING THE AREA
IN THE RIGHT REAR WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES IN FOR THE FRONT
LEFT QUAD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW STARTING
IN NE PA THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY TO JUST OVER AN INCH IN NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY FLASH FLOODING.
RIVERS WILL RISE SOME BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW BANK FULL.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING
IN ATTM. FRIDAY GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND WENT CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
AFTER A QUIET MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CWA WILL BE WAITING FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SE INTO NY. MODELS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING BETTER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKES WILL BRING SOME CUMULUS. 850MB TEMPS
FALL BACK TO PLUS 3C.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE EXIT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.
MOST MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER NY AND PA LATE SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY DAY SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL MEAN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL MIDDAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE...BEFORE CONDS
DETERIORATE LATER TNT INTO FRI...AS LWR CIGS AND RAIN MOVE IN FOR
KAVP...KELM...KBGM...AND KITH. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD
OCCUR AT KAVP (MORE INTERMITTENT AT KELM...KBGM...AND KITH)...BUT
MVFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT EACH SITE. IN GENERAL...STEADIER RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LAST LONGER.

FOR KSYR AND KRME...VFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT...AS THE
RAIN SHIELD LARGELY BYPASSES THESE SITES TO THE S.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL BECOME N TO NW AND
INCREASE TO ARND 10 KT FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 431 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FOG THIS MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THROUGH 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY ABOVE 1/4 MILE AND AS VARIOUS CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LOWERED THEM EAST OF A PONCA
CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY DUE
TO THE LACK OF LIFT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR RUNS...
CURRENT SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BY 11 AM CDT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED NEW DEVELOPMENT NEARLY ANYWHERE TODAY AS THE AIR IS VERY
MOIST...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY...ESPECIALLY AS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 81 TO 86
DEGREE RANGE DIFFICULT.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWER
OR STORM TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOUT 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
LOCALIZED. SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY AS WELL.

WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
HIGHS TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER COVER.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE POORLY
SAMPLED LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z GUIDANCE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IF SKIES CAN CLEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WAS NOT
CONFIDENT TO MENTION. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  64  77  60 /  20  30  30  10
HOBART OK         74  64  79  59 /  50  50  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  66  77  62 /  50  50  50  20
GAGE OK           77  58  77  55 /  50  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  79  53 /  30  20  10  10
DURANT OK         85  66  75  63 /  30  60  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 503 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BRINGS MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS IS MOVING INTO EASTERN PA AT THIS HOUR...WITH
THE STEADIEST RAINS NOW MOVING THRU NERN PA. THE TRAILING SHOWERS
EXTEND BACK TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
IN THE HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HRRR TIMING HAS THE LAST
OF THE RAINS MOVING OUT OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 14Z.

IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AFTER MID
DAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND FOR NOW I WILL NOT MENTION RAIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE FAR NW TO MID
70S OVER THE SE. FOR THE TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL NW TO A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH...FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT VERY NEAR CLIMO NORMS...40S
NORTH TO 50S SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NRN AREAS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY DIVES SSW INTO THE GR LAKES
BEFORE EJECTING BACK INTO ERN CANADA BY MONDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE
A COOL AND SHOWERY DAY AS THE UPPER TROF/LOW BOTTOM OUT AND BEGIN
TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

AFTER WE DRY OUT FOR A BIT MONDAY...GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR
MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE IN DRAGGING GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN US BY TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE SRN MOISTURE AND ENERGY MORE
SEPARATE...NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. THE GEFS LOOKS
VERY MUCH LIKE THE GFS ALOFT...BUT SHOWS HIGHER POPS INTO MID
WEEK. WITH CONFLICTING GUIDANCE SUCH AS IT IS...I BROUGHT IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN TUES INTO WED.

ONCE THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS RESOLVED...THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS
DRIER IN ALL THE GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY BRINGS COOLER AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KUNV AT 06Z...WILL
COMBINE WITH A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS /AND LOW FLYING CONDITIONS/ NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM KHGR...TO KMDT...KSEG AND KIPT
THROUGH 09Z.

AFTERWARD...AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION IFR TO LIFR CIGS /AND
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL
PERSIST AT MOST CENTRAL PENN TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVING FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

VSBYS WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT AREAS
OF MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION AIRFIELDS OF WESTERN PENN /KJST...NORTH TO KBFD/.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSS NW.

SUN...VFR/AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS - MAINLY WEST DURING
DAY...AREA-WIDE SUN NIGHT.

MON...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSS IN THE MORNING.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 438 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT FRIDAY...

COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM LOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO ANOTHER LOW
IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE KENTUCKY LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG A DC TO WESTERN KENTUCKY LINE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW GOES BY.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RADAR WAS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WARM...MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF
DATA KEPT A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM. HAVE ALIGNED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO FOLLOW THIS
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUD
COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE INSTABILITY TODAY AND THE
LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WITH CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA...APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WERE THERE WILL BE MORE HEATING AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS
REGION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT GETTING MORE SUN THIS MORNING HAVE
USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST.
WILL ALSO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ON THE MILD
SIDE...WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED OFF LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE
THE AREAS WEATHER BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS
SHORT WAVES PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

MODELS ARE PAINTING SHOWERS ACROSS RNK SOUTH IN THE MORNING...THEN
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST...I DISREGARDED THESE
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHERLY. IN FURTHER DISSECTING THE MODELS...THERE
IS AN 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FURTHERMORE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WOULD PROMOTE
SHOWERS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH. SO I AM CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THINKING MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FADE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN THE EAST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.
CONSIDERING THE FLIP-FLOP NATURE OF THE MODELS LATELY AND FORECAST
COLLABORATION...WILL ALSO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND THEREFORE LOOKING AT MORE OF A
DRY DAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND IT.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GFS IS DEFINITELY TRENDING TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION NOW WITH MUCH
LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. PATTERN WILL ESSENTIALLY EVOLVE FROM A DEEP TROF
IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW PROGGED TO SET UP SHOP OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL
BRING DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA. ONE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A BIT
OF A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY JUST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED EAST BUT STILL ENOUGH COVERAGE TO ADD
VCSH TO LWB EARLY THIS MORNING.

BY MID MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE LOWER NEW ENGLAND STATES...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY
HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SERVES THE ROANOKE AND SURROUNDING
AREA IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO BE TAKEN DOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING MONDAY OCTOBER 1ST FOR ITS UPGRADE TO DUAL POLARIZATION
TECHNOLOGY. NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...
WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG
SC (KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING
THE INSTALLATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KM
EQUIPMENT...NF








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1024 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING TWO PERIODS OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL
LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA. YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY
SCRAPE BY TO THE SOUTH DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT 15Z. LIGHT E-NE
WINDS CONTINUE. NOTING SOME SPOTTY HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON NE
88D REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR...SO WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED BRIEF
DOWNPOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED WINDS TO HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HRRR MODEL. TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND POPS LOOK ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...SUPPORTING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE AREAS OF STRONGEST LIFT AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ARE BROUGHT ACROSS CT AND INTERIOR MASS AND SOUTHERN NH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AT 1.5 INCHES.
THE FORECAST RUNS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN AND QPF VALUES OF
0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES.

CLOUDS/PCPN AND LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
CLIMBING TOO FAR TODAY. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS WHICH YIELDS MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ONE AREA OF ISENTROPIC FORCING MOVES OFF THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TURNS THE
CORNER AT THE COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND. THIS BRINGS A SECOND AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING UP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING TONIGHT. STABILITY VALUES DIMINISH
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH LI VALUES SUB ZERO MAINLY OVER RI AND
EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE NIGHT.

EVEN WITH THE BREAK BETWEEN AREAS OF FORCING...THE MOIST EAST FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS/FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN IN THE MORNING BUT DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. NOT SURE ABOUT SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OF THE
AIRMASS...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS GIVE GOOD RESULTS ON THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES...THOUGH STILL SIGNALING
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MONDAY. NOW THOUGH...SEVERAL MEMBERS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GGEM STARTING TO SIGNAL YET ANOTHER LOW
TRYING TO RIDE OUT OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY ON
THE CONTINUED SW UPPER FLOW. NOTED THAT THE 00Z OP GFS RUN BECOMING
AN OUTLIER BEYOND MONDAY WITH THIS LOW. LEANED TOWARD A GFS/EC/EC
ENSEMBLE BLEND EARLY...THEN MORE TOWARD THE EC LATER IN THE PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...
STALLED FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. WENT ALONG WITH LOW LIKELY POPS
ACROSS RI/SE MA WHERE BEST LIFT/LL MOISTURE ARE. WITH FAIRLY GOOD
E-NE FLOW IN PLACE...HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WELL. BEST PW/S REMAIN CLOSE TO CAPE COD AND
OFFSHORE...AROUND 1.5 INCHES...BUT COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHEN BEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH.
WINDS VEER AROUND TO S DURING SUNDAY...SO COULD SEE TEMPS RISE TO
THE 60S...MAYBE TOUCHING 70 ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AWAY FROM BEST
LIFT/LL MOISTURE FEED.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
GFS STARTS TO LINGER AWAY FROM MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS AS IT TRIES TO
OPEN UP THE H5 CUTOFF FASTER THAN THE GGEM/ECWMF SOLUTIONS. STILL
NOTING MAINLY A S-SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUING...ALONG WITH STALLED
FRONT WAVERING CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF THE REGION. BOTH GGEM AND EC
INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG. MAY START TO SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVER W
MA/N CENTRAL CT/SW NH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE A
FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SOME
SPOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW AND PICK UP A BIT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
GGEM/ECWMF MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING YET ANOTHER
WAVE ON FRONT...WHICH WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION. BIG QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW FAR N WILL THIS LOW TRACK OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES. EC TRIES TO BRING LOW ACROSS CAPE COD DURING TUESDAY
SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE S COAST. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TIMING ISSUES ABOUND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AND EVEN HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.  AT THIS
POINT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS EC AND GGEM TRY TO KEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS MAINLY S
COASTAL AREAS BUT UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL SET UP AS WELL AS HOW FAR
N. MAY DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS N MA/S NH DURING THURSDAY. RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

SHORT TERM...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION. NOTING A MIX OF CIG
CONDITIONS AT 15Z...BUT ANTICIPATE PRIIMARILY VFR TODAY SE
COAST...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF MA/N CT WITH
LOCALIZED IFR ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILLS OF WESTERN MA/N CT. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 3-4 MILES AND MAY DIP TO 1 1/2 MILES IN SPOTS.
INCREASING NE-E WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ONE BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OFF...A SECOND MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
EITHER WAY...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN
AND FOG. VSBYS ALSO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN AREAS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES AND MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN. VSBYS IMPROVE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE...BUT LESS CERTAIN. POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN EASTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS/VSBYS REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR AFTER 20Z. COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN A SECOND PERIOD OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS TODAY AND
AT LEAST THE START OF TONIGHT...GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE MOVES PAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF IFR TO VFR CIGS IN -RA TO START...THEN ANTICIPATE PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. LOWER VSBYS IN
HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN A SECOND
AREA OF RAIN MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD
AROUND 1000-1500 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRZL AND FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS RI/E MA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN.
LOW-MODERATE PROB OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT IN FOG/DRZL
PATCHES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MVFR-VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRZL/FOG. ANOTHER
LOW MOVES ALONG PASSING FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS RI/E MA. LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO UP TO 20 KT ON THE S COAST
DURING MON.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG. YET ANOTHER LOW MOVES S OF THE REGION...WHICH MAY BRING SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS RI/SE MA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE ROLLS ACROSS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REACH 20-25
KNOTS...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT SOME OR ALL OF THIS WILL REACH THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN ANY RAIN. THE WIND WILL
SERVE TO BUILD SEAS WITH 5 FOOT VALUES ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES...FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AND FOR MOST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OVER THE WATERS...THE
DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS
WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES AS THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT...MAINLY FROM THE E-NE THOUGH
WILL BE SHIFTING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY RAIN AND
NIGHTTIME DRIZZLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS PICK UP ON MONDAY...GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  ANOTHER LOW WILL SCRAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TUE...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT/NMB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/NMB
MARINE...WTB/EVT








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1106 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

A LARGE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

LOW STRATUS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER AND FOG LARGELY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. TEMPS AT 15Z WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. IN LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...SHOULD SEE CU
REDEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO
A 20 POP OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS. HRRR INDICATING THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 18Z WITH DRY WEATHER
THEREAFTER. WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE TO CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS. FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERN INDIANA
OR OHIO COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER SKY COVER HERE...BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND THE FEATURE ITSELF POTENTIALLY BEING FURTHER EAST
PRECLUDE ANY POP MENTION.

GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS GUIDANCE
DID A BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS EXPECTING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR HIGHS USED A CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY...BUT WENT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TOO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW PER THE CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION.

PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST BASED ON THE
REMAINING LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 144 HOUR GEM FRONTAL
POSITION FROM THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PULLED
SMALL POPS FROM THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ILX...PAH...LMK AND ILN. WITH THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST
PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW MEAN LEVEL
RH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FROM THE CR INIT...EXCEPT WILL BUMP THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY BASED ON LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 00Z
ECMWF 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE CELSIUS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

CLEARING TO THE WEST IS TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO IND AND
BMG...AND LIKELY WILL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
REQUIRED.

ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

HIGH PRESSURE AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALLOWING FOG AND
STRATUS TO FORM MAINLY AT IND AND BMG OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE NORTH AMERICAN RAPID REFRESH
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM ALL FAVOR LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT BMG TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR TOWARD 14Z AND MVFR AND BETTER SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IND ALSO WAS SEEING LOW CEILINGS AND SHORT START OFF AT
IFR OR WORSE BEFORE BECOMING MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z. CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS WERE INDICATING AT LEAST BROKEN DIURNAL CU. THE
OTHER SITES WERE DOING BETTER WITH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING
UP NICE IN THE MODELS AND THE RAPID REFRESH. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
SOME FOG AT BMG TONIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS IFR THERE FOR
NOW AFTER 04Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR SETTLING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP FOG LIGHT IF AT ALL.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/NIELD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1012 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

A LARGE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL SHOWING VERY SMALL QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND HRRR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THOUGH
MAKING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN DIFFICULT AND DRY ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
CURRENTLY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SOME SHOWERS FIRING UP IN FRONT OF IT. ULTIMATELY THINK
THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AS THEY HEAD EAST SO
MAY WIND UP JUST BEING SPRINKLES BY THE TIME THEY REACH
INDIANA...BUT COULD ALSO SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO EEK OUT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THUS WILL GO WITH AROUND A 30 POP IN THE
SOUTH...TIMED OUT TO MATCH WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHIELD IN WESTERN ILLINOIS. DON/T SEE INSTABILITY GETTING THIS FAR
NORTH SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. BY AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY. CU RULE SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
DECREASING BY EVENING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASING BUT NOT
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS THINK HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER AND THE MAV NUMBERS WENT
WELL WITH THIS THEORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS. FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERN INDIANA
OR OHIO COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER SKY COVER HERE...BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND THE FEATURE ITSELF POTENTIALLY BEING FURTHER EAST
PRECLUDE ANY POP MENTION.

GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS GUIDANCE
DID A BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS EXPECTING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR HIGHS USED A CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY...BUT WENT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TOO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW PER THE CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION.

PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST BASED ON THE
REMAINING LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 144 HOUR GEM FRONTAL
POSITION FROM THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PULLED
SMALL POPS FROM THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ILX...PAH...LMK AND ILN. WITH THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST
PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW MEAN LEVEL
RH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FROM THE CR INIT...EXCEPT WILL BUMP THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY BASED ON LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 00Z
ECMWF 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE CELSIUS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

CLEARING TO THE WEST IS TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO IND AND
BMG...AND LIKELY WILL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
REQUIRED.

ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

HIGH PRESSURE AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALLOWING FOG AND
STRATUS TO FORM MAINLY AT IND AND BMG OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE NORTH AMERICAN RAPID REFRESH
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM ALL FAVOR LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT BMG TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR TOWARD 14Z AND MVFR AND BETTER SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IND ALSO WAS SEEING LOW CEILINGS AND SHORT START OFF AT
IFR OR WORSE BEFORE BECOMING MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z. CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS WERE INDICATING AT LEAST BROKEN DIURNAL CU. THE
OTHER SITES WERE DOING BETTER WITH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING
UP NICE IN THE MODELS AND THE RAPID REFRESH. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
SOME FOG AT BMG TONIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS IFR THERE FOR
NOW AFTER 04Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR SETTLING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP FOG LIGHT IF AT ALL.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/NIELD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 618 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

A LARGE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL SHOWING VERY SMALL QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND HRRR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THOUGH
MAKING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN DIFFICULT AND DRY ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
CURRENTLY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SOME SHOWERS FIRING UP IN FRONT OF IT. ULTIMATELY THINK
THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AS THEY HEAD EAST SO
MAY WIND UP JUST BEING SPRINKLES BY THE TIME THEY REACH
INDIANA...BUT COULD ALSO SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO EEK OUT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THUS WILL GO WITH AROUND A 30 POP IN THE
SOUTH...TIMED OUT TO MATCH WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHIELD IN WESTERN ILLINOIS. DON/T SEE INSTABILITY GETTING THIS FAR
NORTH SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. BY AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY. CU RULE SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
DECREASING BY EVENING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASING BUT NOT
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS THINK HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER AND THE MAV NUMBERS WENT
WELL WITH THIS THEORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS. FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERN INDIANA
OR OHIO COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER SKY COVER HERE...BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND THE FEATURE ITSELF POTENTIALLY BEING FURTHER EAST
PRECLUDE ANY POP MENTION.

GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS GUIDANCE
DID A BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS EXPECTING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR HIGHS USED A CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY...BUT WENT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TOO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW PER THE CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION.

PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST BASED ON THE
REMAINING LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 144 HOUR GEM FRONTAL
POSITION FROM THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PULLED
SMALL POPS FROM THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ILX...PAH...LMK AND ILN. WITH THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST
PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW MEAN LEVEL
RH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FROM THE CR INIT...EXCEPT WILL BUMP THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY BASED ON LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 00Z
ECMWF 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE CELSIUS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

HIGH PRESSURE AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALLOWING FOG AND
STRATUS TO FORM MAINLY AT IND AND BMG OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE NORTH AMERICAN RAPID REFRESH
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM ALL FAVOR LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT BMG TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR TOWARD 14Z AND MVFR AND BETTER SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IND ALSO WAS SEEING LOW CEILINGS AND SHORT START OFF AT
IFR OR WORSE BEFORE BECOMING MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z. CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS WERE INDICATING AT LEAST BROKEN DIURNAL CU. THE
OTHER SITES WERE DOING BETTER WITH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING
UP NICE IN THE MODELS AND THE RAPID REFRESH. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
SOME FOG AT BMG TONIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS IFR THERE FOR
NOW AFTER 04Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR SETTLING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP FOG LIGHT IF AT ALL.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1053 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS. SHOWERS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA
ARE DIMINISHING AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE
SHOULD ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GOING HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TODAY)

THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PD IS DETERMINING WHICH PARTS
OF THE CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN THROUGH 00Z.

07Z METARS AND MSAS SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
FIELDS DEPICTED AN E-W ORIENTED BDRY BISECTING THE CWA. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MO PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK
AT H25 OVER CENTRAL IL NOTED ON THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND
SUPPORTED BY AREA VWP/PROFILER OBS. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND RER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURVED JET STREAK
WERE SUPPORTING ISO-SCT SHRA ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE BDRY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF
THE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH PCPN DIMINISHING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN TO THE
REGION AS A SFC HIGH SINKS SWD. HOWEVER...THE BDRY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT /ALBEIT SLOWLY SINKING SWD/ ACROSS PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED
UPSTREAM AT 07Z NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...MODELS DO SHOW SOME 300-250MB
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN CWA DURING THE DAY AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE CO/KS SHORTWAVE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISO-SCT
SHRA THIS AFTN INVOF THE BDRY.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TONIGHT - TUESDAY)

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS GIVEN US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX THIS PAST WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO NW TO N FLOW THAT SHOULD GIVE
US A QUIETER PERIOD FOR A BIT.  THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL INITIALLY
BE HELPED OUT BY A POLAR VORTEX DIGGING INTO THE GRTLKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND LATER BY A TROF THAT DIGS INTO THE CNTRL AND S CNTRL
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.  THE SFC IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A TROF
WILL TAKE A SWIPE MAINLY AT THE IL SIDE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL PWATS FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY...LIFTING MECHANISMS TOO WEAK...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.  NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH FAVOR THE MAV MOS NUMBERS WHICH IN MOST CASES ARE
RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN THE MET MOS.

UP UNTIL THIS POINT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.  WE
START TO SEE SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINNING MONDAY WHERE THE ECMWF
DRAGS A CDFNT THRU WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT WEST OF THE FA WHERE IT
THEN DISSIPATES IT AND RE-ESTABLISHES THE RIDGE.  IT APPEARS WITH
RESPECT TO THE BOTTOM LINE...THIS IS A MINOR QUIBBLE AS THE ECMWF
STRUGGLES TO BRING ANY MOISTURE UP IN TIME FOR WHEN IT BRINGS THE
CDFNT THRU...AND IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...SHOULD GO THRU DRY AS A
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SE WILL STEAL THE SHOW AND HOG THE SENSIBLE
WX.  WILL NEED TO WATCH EXACTLY WHERE THIS SERN CONUS SYSTEM GOES AS
IT COULD EDGE SOME PARTS OF SERN MO AND SRN IL ON MONDAY.  TEMPS
COULD BE A BIGGER SOURCE OF ERROR HERE...NAMELY IF THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GOES THRU OR NOT...BUT TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SEEM
THE BETTER BET.

(WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THEIR STANDOFF INTO THE MID AND LATER PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF FEATURES ZONAL FLOW RETURNING BUT MORE IN
THE FORM OF A PLATEAUED OUT BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS IT GETS ABSORBED.  EITHER WAY...BOTH ARE
TAKING ANOTHER...STRONGER...CDFNT THRU THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE DIFFS IN FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TIMING QUANDARY WITH THE
FRONT BY AS MUCH AS 24HRS.  THE GFS TAKES THE CDFNT THRU WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN/T UNTIL THURSDAY.  BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED AND WILL MAKE FOR
LIMITED AMOUNTS TO WORK WITH.  VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT
FRONT CAN GENERATE PCPN HERE BUT IF STRENGTH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IS
SUFFICIENT...IT MAY.  ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
FRONT.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

ISO-SCT SHRA INVOF KCOU AND THE STL METRO AREA TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL A SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT FINALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. ISO-SCT PCPN WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
MIXING...DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL BDRY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SCT SHRA INVOF KSTL ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL A SLOWLY MOVING FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
MORNING ONCE THE BDRY SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF KSTL.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 622 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TODAY)

THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PD IS DETERMINING WHICH PARTS
OF THE CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN THROUGH 00Z.

07Z METARS AND MSAS SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
FIELDS DEPICTED AN E-W ORIENTED BDRY BISECTING THE CWA. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MO PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK
AT H25 OVER CENTRAL IL NOTED ON THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND
SUPPORTED BY AREA VWP/PROFILER OBS. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND RER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURVED JET STREAK
WERE SUPPORTING ISO-SCT SHRA ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE BDRY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF
THE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH PCPN DIMINISHING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN TO THE
REGION AS A SFC HIGH SINKS SWD. HOWEVER...THE BDRY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT /ALBEIT SLOWLY SINKING SWD/ ACROSS PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED
UPSTREAM AT 07Z NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...MODELS DO SHOW SOME 300-250MB
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN CWA DURING THE DAY AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE CO/KS SHORTWAVE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISO-SCT
SHRA THIS AFTN INVOF THE BDRY.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TONIGHT - TUESDAY)

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS GIVEN US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX THIS PAST WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO NW TO N FLOW THAT SHOULD GIVE
US A QUIETER PERIOD FOR A BIT.  THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL INITIALLY
BE HELPED OUT BY A POLAR VORTEX DIGGING INTO THE GRTLKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND LATER BY A TROF THAT DIGS INTO THE CNTRL AND S CNTRL
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.  THE SFC IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A TROF
WILL TAKE A SWIPE MAINLY AT THE IL SIDE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL PWATS FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY...LIFTING MECHANISMS TOO WEAK...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.  NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH FAVOR THE MAV MOS NUMBERS WHICH IN MOST CASES ARE
RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN THE MET MOS.

UP UNTIL THIS POINT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.  WE
START TO SEE SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINNING MONDAY WHERE THE ECMWF
DRAGS A CDFNT THRU WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT WEST OF THE FA WHERE IT
THEN DISSIPATES IT AND RE-ESTABLISHES THE RIDGE.  IT APPEARS WITH
RESPECT TO THE BOTTOM LINE...THIS IS A MINOR QUIBBLE AS THE ECMWF
STRUGGLES TO BRING ANY MOISTURE UP IN TIME FOR WHEN IT BRINGS THE
CDFNT THRU...AND IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...SHOULD GO THRU DRY AS A
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SE WILL STEAL THE SHOW AND HOG THE SENSIBLE
WX.  WILL NEED TO WATCH EXACTLY WHERE THIS SERN CONUS SYSTEM GOES AS
IT COULD EDGE SOME PARTS OF SERN MO AND SRN IL ON MONDAY.  TEMPS
COULD BE A BIGGER SOURCE OF ERROR HERE...NAMELY IF THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GOES THRU OR NOT...BUT TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SEEM
THE BETTER BET.

(WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THEIR STANDOFF INTO THE MID AND LATER PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF FEATURES ZONAL FLOW RETURNING BUT MORE IN
THE FORM OF A PLATEAUED OUT BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS IT GETS ABSORBED.  EITHER WAY...BOTH ARE
TAKING ANOTHER...STRONGER...CDFNT THRU THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE DIFFS IN FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TIMING QUANDARY WITH THE
FRONT BY AS MUCH AS 24HRS.  THE GFS TAKES THE CDFNT THRU WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN/T UNTIL THURSDAY.  BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED AND WILL MAKE FOR
LIMITED AMOUNTS TO WORK WITH.  VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT
FRONT CAN GENERATE PCPN HERE BUT IF STRENGTH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IS
SUFFICIENT...IT MAY.  ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
FRONT.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

ISO-SCT SHRA INVOF KCOU AND THE STL METRO AREA TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL A SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT FINALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. ISO-SCT PCPN WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
MIXING...DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL BDRY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SCT SHRA INVOF KSTL ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL A SLOWLY MOVING FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
MORNING ONCE THE BDRY SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF KSTL.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS        71  52  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
QUINCY          70  47  76  50 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBIA        72  48  75  51 /  10   0   0   0
JEFFERSON CITY  72  49  74  51 /  20   5   0   0
SALEM           71  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   5
FARMINGTON      71  50  73  50 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1143 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN NEW JERSEY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER
OF PA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN PIKE/SULLIVAN COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY WILL ALL BECOME JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SFC LOW TRACKS TOWARD LONG ISLAND. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST POPS NRN/ERN CWA IN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING.
SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES BACK ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND EXPECT
AREA TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY. BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS LOWERED
MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISC... 4 AM UPDATE... LARGE SCALE UL LOW LOCATED ACRS
LABRADOR AND OVR HUDSON BAY. S/WV IS RIPPING THRU CNTRL
PA...SPURRING SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NY/PA AND NJ AT THIS HOUR.
ELONGATED SFC LOW EXTNDS ACRS THE SPINE OF THE APPS. GREATEST 3HR
SFC PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED OVR ERN PA AND 00Z NAM/GFS TENDS TO
AGREE ON THIS MVMNT THRU 12Z.

HOW FAR NORTH THIS RAIN PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA IS UP FOR DEBATE AND
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF THE FA WL BE IMPACTED. NAM/GFS ARE
FURTHEST TO THE NORTH WITH THIS PCPN. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
CONFINED FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFORE HV DROPPED POPS ACRS FAR NRN
ZONES NORTH OF A PENN YAN TO SYR TO BOONVILLE LINE THRU 12Z.

AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO SATURATE DOWN WITH LKLY
POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THRU THE MRNG HRS. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WL BE PRESENT TWD DAYBREAK WITH
NAM INDICATING CAPES ARND 200 J/KG AND GFS AT 0 THRU THE DAY TODAY.
THUS HV ADDED IN SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA...MOCLDY SKIES WL BE PRESENT THRU THE DAY WITH
H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO BLO 10C. THUS HIGHS WL ONLY REACH TO NR 60F
ACRS UPSTATE NY WITH WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID-UPR 60S.

AS LOPRES WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE NE PCPN WL COME TO AN END BY 00Z.
TOTAL QPF AMNTS APPEAR TO BE ARND 1.00 INCH THRU 00Z TONIGHT ACRS
THE WRN CATS AND POCONOS. RMNDR OF THE REGION WL SEE AMNTS ARND 0.50
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
RAIN WL COME TO AN END BY SAT MRNG WITH H8 CLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING
INTO THE CWA. MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE MID-40S AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE U30S IN FAVORED LOW VLYS ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER WHERE CAA WL BE
STRONGEST. H5 LOW WL DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE
(NAM/GFS/EC) DROPPING IT TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 12Z SAT.

AS UL LOW APPCHS ON SAT ISOLD SHRAS WL DVLP ACRS THE CWA. THIS UL
LOPRES SYSTEM WL AFFECT CNTRL NY/NEPA THRU THE SHORT TERM. SFC LOW
WL DVLP AND MV INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH PCPN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

POPS INCRS FOR SUN AFTN AND INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH LKLY POPS
THRU 12Z MON. TEMPS DRG THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WL AVG NR
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF THIS
WEEKEND/S UPPER LOW. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO
POSSIBLE COLD FRONT WHICH IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS TO PASS WED
AFTERNOON EVENING. THIS SOLUTION HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE
00Z ECMWF WHICH TAKES A SFC LOW UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS IN RECENT
RUNS AND BASED ON THIS...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS BOTH TUE
AND TUE NGT. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM/S DEPARTURE...DRIER WX LOOKS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BATCH OF RAIN QUICKLY EXITING TOWARDS EASTERN NY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...NEW SCT SHWR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY AS NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SYR AND RME FOR LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY THROUGH 16Z. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BGM THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE AS INITIAL WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.
IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ELM FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CIGS START TO RISE
LATER THIS MORNING.

MAIN QUESTIONS LATER ONE HINGE UPON WHEN/IF CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER ON. FOR NOW WILL SUGGEST BKN-OVC CIGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL BREAKS THEREAFTER. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DEVELOPING LAKE RESPONSE LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT SYR.
FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT A BKN MVFR MENTION AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 659 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
LARGE SCALE UL LOW LOCATED ACRS LABRADOR AND OVR HUDSON BAY. S/WV
IS RIPPING THRU CNTRL PA...SPURRING SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NY/PA AND NJ
AT THIS HOUR. ELONGATED SFC LOW EXTNDS ACRS THE SPINE OF THE APPS.
GREATEST 3HR SFC PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED OVR ERN PA AND 00Z NAM/GFS
TENDS TO AGREE ON THIS MVMNT THRU 12Z.

HOW FAR NORTH THIS RAIN PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA IS UP FOR DEBATE AND
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF THE FA WL BE IMPACTED. NAM/GFS ARE
FURTHEST TO THE NORTH WITH THIS PCPN. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
CONFINED FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFORE HV DROPPED POPS ACRS FAR NRN
ZONES NORTH OF A PENN YAN TO SYR TO BOONVILLE LINE THRU 12Z.

AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO SATURATE DOWN WITH LKLY
POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THRU THE MRNG HRS. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WL BE PRESENT TWD DAYBREAK WITH
NAM INDICATING CAPES ARND 200 J/KG AND GFS AT 0 THRU THE DAY TODAY.
THUS HV ADDED IN SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA...MOCLDY SKIES WL BE PRESENT THRU THE DAY WITH
H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO BLO 10C. THUS HIGHS WL ONLY REACH TO NR 60F
ACRS UPSTATE NY WITH WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID-UPR 60S.

AS LOPRES WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE NE PCPN WL COME TO AN END BY 00Z.
TOTAL QPF AMNTS APPEAR TO BE ARND 1.00 INCH THRU 00Z TONIGHT ACRS
THE WRN CATS AND POCONOS. RMNDR OF THE REGION WL SEE AMNTS ARND 0.50
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
RAIN WL COME TO AN END BY SAT MRNG WITH H8 CLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING
INTO THE CWA. MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE MID-40S AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE U30S IN FAVORED LOW VLYS ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER WHERE CAA WL BE
STRONGEST. H5 LOW WL DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE
(NAM/GFS/EC) DROPPING IT TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 12Z SAT.

AS UL LOW APPCHS ON SAT ISOLD SHRAS WL DVLP ACRS THE CWA. THIS UL
LOPRES SYSTEM WL AFFECT CNTRL NY/NEPA THRU THE SHORT TERM. SFC LOW
WL DVLP AND MV INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH PCPN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

POPS INCRS FOR SUN AFTN AND INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH LKLY POPS
THRU 12Z MON. TEMPS DRG THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WL AVG NR
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF THIS
WEEKEND/S UPPER LOW. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO
POSSIBLE COLD FRONT WHICH IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS TO PASS WED
AFTERNOON EVENING. THIS SOLUTION HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE
00Z ECMWF WHICH TAKES A SFC LOW UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS IN RECENT
RUNS AND BASED ON THIS...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS BOTH TUE
AND TUE NGT. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM/S DEPARTURE...DRIER WX LOOKS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE
WHICH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH AREA BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS, A WEAK TROF IN EASTERN CANADA AND SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. REGION MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. ON
THURSDAY, RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BATCH OF RAIN QUICKLY EXITING TOWARDS EASTERN NY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...NEW SCT SHWR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY AS NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SYR AND RME FOR LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY THROUGH 16Z. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BGM THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE AS INITIAL WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.
IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ELM FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CIGS START TO RISE
LATER THIS MORNING.

MAIN QUESTIONS LATER ONE HINGE UPON WHEN/IF CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER ON. FOR NOW WILL SUGGEST BKN-OVC CIGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL BREAKS THEREAFTER. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DEVELOPING LAKE RESPONSE LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT SYR.
FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT A BKN MVFR MENTION AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1034 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF RAIN OVER TEXAS...JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR
TEXAS COUNTIES...SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO EXPAND INTO OUR
COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS...SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE
RAIN INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY. SO...WILL
RETAIN THE HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. SIMILARLY...MODELS SUPPORT THE
LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...IT IS HARD
TO RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ALL THE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ALSO APPEAR TO BE WELL-
HANDLED...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
18Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE 18-03Z...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

VLIFR CONDITIONS AND FG WILL OCCUR NEAR KOKC...KPNC... KCSM...AND
KHBR THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...AND MAY LINGER AS LONG AS 17Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KSPS...KOUN...AND KLAW THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z.

BY 18Z...WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO ANY SITE AFTER
03Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BR/FG MAY
REDEVELOP AND WITH -RA/BR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -RA/BR
AT KSPS AFTER 06Z WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FOG THIS MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THROUGH 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY ABOVE 1/4 MILE AND AS VARIOUS CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LOWERED THEM EAST OF A PONCA
CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY DUE
TO THE LACK OF LIFT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR RUNS...
CURRENT SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BY 11 AM CDT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED NEW DEVELOPMENT NEARLY ANYWHERE TODAY AS THE AIR IS VERY
MOIST...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY...ESPECIALLY AS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 81 TO 86
DEGREE RANGE DIFFICULT.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWER
OR STORM TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOUT 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
LOCALIZED. SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY AS WELL.

WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
HIGHS TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER COVER.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE POORLY
SAMPLED LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z GUIDANCE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IF SKIES CAN CLEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WAS NOT
CONFIDENT TO MENTION. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  64  77  60 /  20  30  30  10
HOBART OK         74  64  79  59 /  50  50  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  66  77  62 /  50  50  50  20
GAGE OK           77  58  77  55 /  50  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  79  53 /  30  20  10  10
DURANT OK         85  66  75  63 /  30  60  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/04




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 654 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
18Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE 18-03Z...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

VLIFR CONDITIONS AND FG WILL OCCUR NEAR KOKC...KPNC... KCSM...AND
KHBR THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...AND MAY LINGER AS LONG AS 17Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KSPS...KOUN...AND KLAW THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z.

BY 18Z...WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO ANY SITE AFTER
03Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BR/FG MAY
REDEVELOP AND WITH -RA/BR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -RA/BR
AT KSPS AFTER 06Z WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FOG THIS MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THROUGH 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY ABOVE 1/4 MILE AND AS VARIOUS CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LOWERED THEM EAST OF A PONCA
CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY DUE
TO THE LACK OF LIFT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR RUNS...
CURRENT SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BY 11 AM CDT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED NEW DEVELOPMENT NEARLY ANYWHERE TODAY AS THE AIR IS VERY
MOIST...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY...ESPECIALLY AS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 81 TO 86
DEGREE RANGE DIFFICULT.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWER
OR STORM TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOUT 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
LOCALIZED. SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY AS WELL.

WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
HIGHS TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER COVER.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE POORLY
SAMPLED LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z GUIDANCE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IF SKIES CAN CLEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WAS NOT
CONFIDENT TO MENTION. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  64  77  60 /  20  30  30  10
HOBART OK         74  64  79  59 /  50  50  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  66  77  62 /  50  50  50  20
GAGE OK           77  58  77  55 /  50  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  79  53 /  30  20  10  10
DURANT OK         85  66  75  63 /  30  60  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 748 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BRINGS MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS IS MOVING INTO EASTERN PA AT THIS HOUR...WITH
THE STEADIEST RAINS NOW MOVING THRU NERN PA. THE TRAILING SHOWERS
EXTEND BACK TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
IN THE HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HRRR TIMING HAS THE LAST
OF THE RAINS MOVING OUT OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 14Z.

IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AFTER MID
DAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND FOR NOW I WILL NOT MENTION RAIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE FAR NW TO MID
70S OVER THE SE. FOR THE TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL NW TO A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH...FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT VERY NEAR CLIMO NORMS...40S
NORTH TO 50S SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NRN AREAS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY DIVES SSW INTO THE GR LAKES
BEFORE EJECTING BACK INTO ERN CANADA BY MONDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE
A COOL AND SHOWERY DAY AS THE UPPER TROF/LOW BOTTOM OUT AND BEGIN
TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

AFTER WE DRY OUT FOR A BIT MONDAY...GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR
MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE IN DRAGGING GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN US BY TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE SRN MOISTURE AND ENERGY MORE
SEPARATE...NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. THE GEFS LOOKS
VERY MUCH LIKE THE GFS ALOFT...BUT SHOWS HIGHER POPS INTO MID
WEEK. WITH CONFLICTING GUIDANCE SUCH AS IT IS...I BROUGHT IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN TUES INTO WED.

ONCE THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS RESOLVED...THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS
DRIER IN ALL THE GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY BRINGS COOLER AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR KMDT AT
1130Z...AND WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS /AND LOW FLYING
CONDITIONS/ NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM KIPT TO KSEG
THROUGH 16Z.

AFTERWARD...AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY IFR TO LIFR
CIGS /AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/ WILL PERSIST AT
MOST CENTRAL PENN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING...
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

VSBYS WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON /WITH LINGERING AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS/ AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS OF WESTERN
PENN /KJST...NORTH TO KBFD/.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSS NW.

SUN...VFR/AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS - MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
      MTNS OF PENN DURING DAY...BECOMING AREA-WIDE SUN NIGHT.

MON...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSS IN THE MORNING.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1006 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WAVE/VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WVA ATTM THE MAIN PLAYER THIS
MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING FROM AROUND THE SMALL
COMMA HEAD SOUTH INTO SW VA PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TAKES THIS IMPULSE NE ALONG THE FRONT INTO NORTH/CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY DAMPENS IT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SAGS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO THE WEST TO WEAKEN PUSHING OUT EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN
LACK OF EARLY INSTABILITY BUT MAY BE ENOUGH SHRA/CLOUDS TO INHIBIT
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPTIONS LIKELY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SEEN OFF MORNING RAOBS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE BREAKS. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO BUMP POPS TO LIKELY A BIT
SOONER FAR WEST WHILE TRIMMING OUT EAST WHERE WILL STILL BE A FEW
HOURS PUSHING ANY SHRA OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. LEFT OVERALL LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN COMBO OF
WAVE/FRONT AND SOME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS TRICKY AS EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RISES
NW EARLY ON WHILE SEEING SOME SUN PIEDMONT AND FAR SOUTH.
THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN HIGHS IN THE WEST AND NORTH A FEW DEGREES
WHILE LEAVING THE EAST MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 420 AM EDT FRIDAY...

COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM LOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO ANOTHER LOW
IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE KENTUCKY LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG A DC TO WESTERN KENTUCKY LINE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW GOES BY.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RADAR WAS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WARM...MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF
DATA KEPT A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM. HAVE ALIGNED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO FOLLOW THIS
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUD
COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE INSTABILITY TODAY AND THE
LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WITH CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA...APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WERE THERE WILL BE MORE HEATING AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS
REGION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT GETTING MORE SUN THIS MORNING HAVE
USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST.
WILL ALSO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ON THE MILD
SIDE...WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED OFF LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE
THE AREAS WEATHER BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS
SHORT WAVES PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

MODELS ARE PAINTING SHOWERS ACROSS RNK SOUTH IN THE MORNING...THEN
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST...I DISREGARDED THESE
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHERLY. IN FURTHER DISSECTING THE MODELS...THERE
IS AN 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FURTHERMORE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WOULD PROMOTE
SHOWERS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH. SO I AM CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THINKING MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FADE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN THE EAST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.
CONSIDERING THE FLIP-FLOP NATURE OF THE MODELS LATELY AND FORECAST
COLLABORATION...WILL ALSO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND THEREFORE LOOKING AT MORE OF A
DRY DAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GFS IS DEFINITELY TRENDING TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION NOW WITH MUCH
LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. PATTERN WILL ESSENTIALLY EVOLVE FROM A DEEP TROF
IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW PROGGED TO SET UP SHOP OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL
BRING DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA. ONE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A BIT
OF A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING. AT THE CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION
THE LINE OF STORMS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REACH BLF AROUND
15Z/11AM AND ROA/BCB AROUND 16Z/NOON. HAVE VCSH IN THE LWB AND BCB
TAFS FOR THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS.

HRRR...RUC AND LOCAL WRF SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 01Z/9PM.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SERVES THE ROANOKE AND SURROUNDING
AREA IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO BE TAKEN DOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING MONDAY OCTOBER 1ST FOR ITS UPGRADE TO DUAL POLARIZATION
TECHNOLOGY. NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...
WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG
SC (KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING
THE INSTALLATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KM
EQUIPMENT...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 743 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT FRIDAY...

COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM LOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO ANOTHER LOW
IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE KENTUCKY LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG A DC TO WESTERN KENTUCKY LINE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW GOES BY.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RADAR WAS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WARM...MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF
DATA KEPT A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM. HAVE ALIGNED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO FOLLOW THIS
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUD
COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE INSTABILITY TODAY AND THE
LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WITH CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA...APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WERE THERE WILL BE MORE HEATING AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS
REGION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT GETTING MORE SUN THIS MORNING HAVE
USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST.
WILL ALSO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ON THE MILD
SIDE...WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED OFF LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE
THE AREAS WEATHER BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS
SHORT WAVES PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

MODELS ARE PAINTING SHOWERS ACROSS RNK SOUTH IN THE MORNING...THEN
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST...I DISREGARDED THESE
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHERLY. IN FURTHER DISSECTING THE MODELS...THERE
IS AN 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FURTHERMORE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WOULD PROMOTE
SHOWERS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH. SO I AM CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THINKING MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FADE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN THE EAST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.
CONSIDERING THE FLIP-FLOP NATURE OF THE MODELS LATELY AND FORECAST
COLLABORATION...WILL ALSO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND THEREFORE LOOKING AT MORE OF A
DRY DAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GFS IS DEFINITELY TRENDING TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION NOW WITH MUCH
LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. PATTERN WILL ESSENTIALLY EVOLVE FROM A DEEP TROF
IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW PROGGED TO SET UP SHOP OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL
BRING DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA. ONE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A BIT
OF A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING. AT THE CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION
THE LINE OF STORMS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REACH BLF AROUND
15Z/11AM AND ROA/BCB AROUND 16Z/NOON. HAVE VCSH IN THE LWB AND BCB
TAFS FOR THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS.

HRRR...RUC AND LOCAL WRF SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND 01Z/9PM.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SERVES THE ROANOKE AND SURROUNDING
AREA IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO BE TAKEN DOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING MONDAY OCTOBER 1ST FOR ITS UPGRADE TO DUAL POLARIZATION
TECHNOLOGY. NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...
WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG
SC (KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING
THE INSTALLATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KM
EQUIPMENT...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

 1032 AM MDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...CORRECTION TO LINE 18 OF FIRST PARAGRAPH

&&

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS HOISTED EARLIER THIS MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN DOWN STREAM FROM THE
DENVER METRO AREA. VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE WERE
OBSERVED AT LONGMONT...GREELEY...FT MORGAN AND STERLING...TO NAME
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS. HOWEVER IN THE PAST HOUR...THE TREND HAS BEEN
UP AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED SHORTLY. THE PATCHY
FOG HANGING AROUND IN THE NORTH AND MIDDLE PARKS SHOULD ALSO BURN
OFF THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND HIGHER RIDGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR AND
NAM RUNS INDICATE A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN CAPE OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VALUES APPROACHING 400
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS THE FOG AND STRATUS
BLANKETING MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN DOWNSTREAM FROM DENVER
SHOULD REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED AT LEAST THOUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND NRN LINCOLN COUNTIES...MODELS ALSO SHOW CAPES
ON THE RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR INDICATES CAPES IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE IN THIS AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE
12Z/NAM ONLY INDICATES CAPES UP AROUND 400 J/KG. THAT SAID...THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR THE FRONT RANGE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK FOR THE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING LOOK GOOD. THE ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD ALSO
SUFFICE. SEE LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP FARTHER OUT ON THE
PLAINS. FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED...ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ON THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED AT DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. AFTER 21Z TODAY...MAY STILL SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
WEAK T-STORM DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA. GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOW AND LIGHTNING MOST LIKELY THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THESE PASSING CELLS. AS FOR WINDS...WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW
10KTS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO OUR TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN
NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM MDT FRI SEP 28 2012/

SHORT TERM...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE WHICH IS
NEARING THE EASTERN BORDER. NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THOUGH KMNH HAS STILL CARRIED SOME THIN FOG AT
TIMES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO KEEPING THE FOG FROM THICKENING
AROUND DENVER SO FAR.  ONLY WEAK HINTS OF A DENVER CYCLONE
CIRCULATION...SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER DENVER WILL
SOCK IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS POINT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON ITS FRINGES INTO BOULDER
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DENVER METRO AREA...BUT NOT MAKE
A WHOLESALE SOUTHWARD PUSH. WEBCAMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER
TO HALF MILE RANGE IN THE FOGGIER AREAS FROM LOVELAND OUT TO
STERLING.

THE VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL NOT HELP WITH THE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING LESS CONVECTION AND LATER TODAY THOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY
A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS. INHERITED POPS WERE HEDGED
TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CREST/EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE
AND THAT PATTERN SEEMS FINE. WITH MOISTURE MIXING OUT A BIT...CAPES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND 800
J/KG OUT ON THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING DOWN TO 0.6 TO
0.7...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH A COUPLE OF THE STORMS...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT.
EXPECT FASTER CLEARING TONIGHT WITHOUT MUCH TO KEEP CONVECTION
GOING. I LOWERED THE MOUNTAIN LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST OF COLORADO WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER FOR THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAK ZONAL FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WEAK DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE
CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND
FIELDS HAVE WEAK TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY HAVE A DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THEM.  THERE IS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
PROGGED.  FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS.  THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 40S F DEW POINTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
..ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE
0.45 TO 0.60 INCH RANGE ALL FOUR PERIODS.  THERE IS MORE MOISTURE
PROGGED ON THE THIRD DAY...SUNDAY...ON THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS.  THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE THE LAST
TWO NIGHTS.  THERE IS SOME CAPE PROGGED...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FAR NORTHEAST HAS VALUES UP TO 1000J/KG.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE PROGGED ON SUNDAY.  THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
SMALL AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR.  FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR BOTH LATE
DAY SATURDAY AND LATE DAY SUNDAY.  FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S
HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE 2-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.  SUNDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 0.5-1.5 C COOLER THAN SATURDAY`S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...MODELS
HAVE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT AND IS SOUTHWEST OF OUR STATE.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE CWA THOSE TWO DAYS.
THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT. MOISTURE IS LACKING.  NO POPS.  WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NOW ALL FOUR DAYS.

AVIATION...FOG NORTH OF THE DENVER AREA SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT KDEN
AND KBJC AS THEY LOOK TO BE ON THE EDGE. IF THE FOG DOES GET INTO
KDEN RVRS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 1000 FEET...BUT THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE HOURS OF INSTRUMENT APPROACHES. FOG WILL BE GONE BY 15Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY.

HYDROLOGY...STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVY RAIN...HALF AN
INCH IN UNDER AN HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING A FLOOD THREAT TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ043-044-
048.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...BAKER/GIMMESTAD








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 428 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. ANTICIPATE
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR SATURDAY IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

215 PM UPDATE...
28/15Z RAP MODEL HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORWOOD AND MARSHFIELD MA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS RI TO BE BETWEEN WILLIMANTIC CT AND
WESTERLY RI. THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NOT MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST WIND SHEAR REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.
WE HAVE NOTICED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS CONTINUES TO
BACK-BUILD ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT SAID...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO BE OVER 2
INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.

DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE TIMING DETAILS OF THE 28/12Z
GUIDANCE. AS SUCH FAVORED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING ONE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
TE 295K AND 300K SURFACES TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A RELATIVE DRY PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM PRESENT LEVELS. USED A
BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

EXPECTING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH TO LONGER ACROSS THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME AREAS OF RAIN AS THE AIRMASS DOES NOT DRY OUT APPRECIABLY.
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW. DO EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK
OF RAINFALL TO BE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AND THE MA COASTAL
WATERS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS DISSIPATING INTO MONDAY
* BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRES INTO TUESDAY
* WET WX MAY PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
* COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A PSBL WX DISTURBANCE

MODEL ANALYSIS...

THE 28/12Z GFS SEEMINGLY PROGRESSES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN OTHER MDL
SOLNS IN REGARDS TO H85 HEIGHTS...AND THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
IN REGARDS TO SFC FEATURES IN COMPARISON TO SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THRU
MONDAY. WITH REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY FCST...LEANED TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER THE FCST PD REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. IT WAS WITH YESTERDAYS MDL SOLNS THAT HIGH PRES WOULD
HOLD IN PLACE KEEPING DISTURBANCES ASSOC WITH REMNANT TROPICAL
ENERGY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE ATTENDANT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. WITH
TODAYS LATEST MDL SUITE...THE SFC BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
TOWARDS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS LOW PRES LIFTS FROM THE GULF COAST
FURTHER N INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE WANES FOR THE MID-WEEK
TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY...AND FOR ALL DAYS THEREAFTER. ON A FINAL
NOTE...THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT SIGNAL OF HIGH PRES AND MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THERE IS
STILL A HINT THAT A TASTE OF AUTUMN MAY BE ON THE NEAR HORIZON.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE 28/12Z NAM AND 28/0Z
ECMWF. SOLNS HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHCS FOR RAIN ACROSS S/E NEW
ENGLAND IN PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
WHICH THE BETTER MOIST AXIS AND ATTENDANT FORCING RESIDE. WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRES ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ADD AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED RAIN FOR AFOREMENTIONED RGNS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE PSBL WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NEW
ENGLAND. LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED. AS FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
THERE IS A GREATER AMNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MDL SOLNS CONTINUE TO KEY ON
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN GRT LKS
NEARLY-STACKED CLOSED LOW...WITH 28/12Z NAM MDL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING
A FAIRLY DRY ATMOS INDICATIVE OF SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER AND VERY LITTLE
CHC OF RAIN. WILL STILL INCITE SOME SLGT CHC POPS AS SHRTWV ENERGY
PINWHEELS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.
OVERALL WLY FLOW WITH TEMPS PSBLY INTO THE UPR 60S-LOW 70S FOR THE
CT VLY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
NEARLY-STACKED CLOSED LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY.
WHILE DRIER AIR CONTINUALLY ENTRAINS TO THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM /ALLOWING SERN NEW ENGLAND TO DRY OUT AFTER DUSK/...IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT AN INVERTED TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE RGN WITH
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...YET THE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND FORCING LOOK
TO LIFT N OF THE FCST RGN PARENT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. WILL INVOKE
SLGT CHC POPS WITH TRENDS FOR GRADUAL CLEARING BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE SPEED AT WHICH CONDITIONS IMPROVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT A
BLEND OF THE 28/12Z NAM AND 28/0Z ECMWF SUFFICES. A MILD NGT ON TAP
WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE LINGERING...LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND DRY
DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 70S. W/SWLY FLOW PREVAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
BOTH THE 28/12Z GFS AND 28/0Z ECMWF HAVE ALTERED THEIR APPROACH IN
HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF TS MIRIAM /EAST-PACIFIC DISTURBANCE/ ACROSS
MEXICO EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIFTING NEWD THRU THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESENT SYNOPSIS IS FOR ATTENDANT
ENERGY TO ELONGATE AGAINST THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC. AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF SFC LOW
PRES LIFTING CONCURRENTLY THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS PD ACTS
TO DRAG THE STALLED OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /WHICH AT THIS POINT WAS
THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WX ON SUNDAY/ NWD AS A WARM FRNT. WHILE IT IS
LIKELY THAT MDL SOLNS WILL ALTER IN TIME...THERE REMAINS AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE S COASTLINE OF
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHALL RESIDE BY TUE NGT
THRU THURS NGT ALONG AS ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL
TRAVERSE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRIDAY ONWARD...
THE 28/0Z ECMWF IS STILL KEYING UPON SOME INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING S/E OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AS MID-WEEK SRN STREAM ENERGY IS
PUSHED OUT BY A SLIGHT STRONG NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE. W/NWLY FLOW
PREVAILS IN WAKE OF THE TWO USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE RGN. CPC CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE CONUS IN ITS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK. SOME HINT AMONGST THE FCST
GUIDANCE FOR ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME TERMINALS. DO EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ONE BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OFF...A SECOND MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
EITHER WAY...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS ALSO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN
AREAS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AND THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES AND MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN. VSBYS IMPROVE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE...BUT LESS CERTAIN. POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN EASTERN MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING TERMINAL TO BOUND BETWEEN VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS
RAINFALL INTENSITY CHANGES...WITH MVFR DOMINATING LATER THIS
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF VLIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO 29/12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRIMARILY IFR TO START...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A
SECOND AREA OF RAIN MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD
HOLD AROUND 1000-1500 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITALLY...MVFR/VFR CIGS SHOULD BE IMPACTING
TERMINALS E OF THE CT RVR VLY WITH SHRA. MAY SEE SOME INTERMITTENT
IFR VSBY IMPACTS. GRADUALLY THRU SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS
NLY FLOW VEERS OUT OF THE W/SW. CIGS LIFT AND VFR PREVAILS...YET
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR RENEWED SHRA AND ATTENDANT
IMPACTS SUNDAY NGT...LOW CONFIDENCE. AS FOR MONDAY...GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE SW
/UP TO 25 KTS PSBL FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE S COAST/.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONAL WET WX DISTURBANCE TRANSLATE
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NEWD JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND /OFFSHORE/.
ANTICIPATING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN VRB WINDS ALONG THE S COAST...BUT A MORE N/NELY FLOW
THRU THE INTERIOR. LOWEST OF CIGS ACCORDINGLY ALONG THE S COAST...
HIGHER N INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A MIX OF MVFR/VFR
CIGS WITH SHRA. PERHAPS SOME VSBY IMPACTS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES. THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD ALSO GENERATE 5 FT SEAS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
START TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
AS SHOWERS LIFT OUT OF THE RGN AND SKIES BEGIN TO BREAK...WILL SEE
AN ENHANCEMENT OF SWLY FLOW INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL
FOR THE S WATERS. WHILE VSBY WILL IMPROVE...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT FOR THE S/SE WATERS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FT LESSEN ALONG THE S/SE WATERS GRADUALLY THRU
TUES. WILL SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT N AND STALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN LGT PREVAILING N/NELY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...VSBY IMPACTS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE
PSBL. PATCHY FOG ALSO PSBL.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 242 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING TWO PERIODS OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA. YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY SCRAPE BY TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...
28/15Z RAP MODEL HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORWOOD AND MARSHFIELD MA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS RI TO BE BETWEEN WILLIMANTIC CT AND
WESTERLY RI. THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NOT MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST WIND SHEAR REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.
WE HAVE NOTICED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS CONTINUES TO
BACK-BUILD ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT SAID...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO BE OVER 2
INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.

DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE TIMING DETAILS OF THE 28/12Z
GUIDANCE. AS SUCH FAVORED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING ONE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
TE 295K AND 300K SURFACES TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A RELATIVE DRY PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM PRESENT LEVELS. USED A
BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH TO LONGER ACROSS THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME AREAS OF RAIN AS THE AIRMASS DOES NOT DRY OUT APPRECIABLY.
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW. DO EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK
OF RAINFALL TO BE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AND THE MA COASTAL
WATERS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS GIVE GOOD RESULTS ON THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES...THOUGH STILL SIGNALING
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MONDAY. NOW THOUGH...SEVERAL MEMBERS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GGEM STARTING TO SIGNAL YET ANOTHER LOW
TRYING TO RIDE OUT OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY ON
THE CONTINUED SW UPPER FLOW. NOTED THAT THE 00Z OP GFS RUN BECOMING
AN OUTLIER BEYOND MONDAY WITH THIS LOW. LEANED TOWARD A GFS/EC/EC
ENSEMBLE BLEND EARLY...THEN MORE TOWARD THE EC LATER IN THE PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
STALLED FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. WENT ALONG WITH LOW LIKELY POPS
ACROSS RI/SE MA WHERE BEST LIFT/LL MOISTURE ARE. WITH FAIRLY GOOD
E-NE FLOW IN PLACE...HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WELL. BEST PW/S REMAIN CLOSE TO CAPE COD AND
OFFSHORE...AROUND 1.5 INCHES...BUT COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHEN BEST LIFT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS VEER AROUND TO S DURING SUNDAY...SO COULD SEE TEMPS
RISE TO THE 60S...MAYBE TOUCHING 70 ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AWAY FROM
BEST LIFT/LL MOISTURE FEED.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
GFS STARTS TO LINGER AWAY FROM MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS AS IT TRIES TO
OPEN UP THE H5 CUTOFF FASTER THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. STILL
NOTING MAINLY A S-SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUING...ALONG WITH STALLED
FRONT WAVERING CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF THE REGION. BOTH GGEM AND EC
INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG. MAY START TO SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT OVER W
MA/N CENTRAL CT/SW NH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE A
FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SOME
SPOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW AND PICK UP A BIT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
GGEM/ECMWF MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING YET ANOTHER
WAVE ON FRONT...WHICH WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION. BIG QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW FAR N WILL THIS LOW TRACK OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES. EC TRIES TO BRING LOW ACROSS CAPE COD DURING TUESDAY
SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE S COAST. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TIMING ISSUES ABOUND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AND EVEN HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.  AT THIS
POINT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS EC AND GGEM TRY TO KEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS MAINLY S
COASTAL AREAS BUT UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL SET UP AS WELL AS HOW FAR
N. MAY DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS N MA/S NH DURING THURSDAY. RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME TERMINALS. DO EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ONE BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OFF...A SECOND MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
EITHER WAY...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS ALSO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN
AREAS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AND THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES AND MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN. VSBYS IMPROVE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE...BUT LESS CERTAIN. POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN EASTERN MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING TERMINAL TO BOUND BETWEEN VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS
RAINFALL INTENSITY CHANGES...WITH MVFR DOMINATING LATER THIS
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF VLIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO 29/12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRIMARILY IFR TO START...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A
SECOND AREA OF RAIN MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD
HOLD AROUND 1000-1500 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT
SHOWERS/PATCHY DRZL AND FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH BEST
CHANCE ACROSS RI/E MA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. LOW-MODERATE PROB OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT IN FOG/DRZL PATCHES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MVFR-VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRZL/FOG. ANOTHER
LOW MOVES ALONG PASSING FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS RI/E MA. LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO UP TO 20 KT ON THE S COAST
DURING MON.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG. YET ANOTHER LOW MOVES S OF THE REGION...WHICH MAY BRING SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS RI/SE MA WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE ROLLS ACROSS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REACH 20-25
KNOTS...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT SOME OR ALL OF THIS WILL REACH THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN ANY RAIN. THE WIND WILL
SERVE TO BUILD SEAS WITH 5 FOOT VALUES ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES...FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AND FOR MOST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OVER THE WATERS...THE
DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS
WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES AS THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT...MAINLY FROM THE E-NE THOUGH
WILL BE SHIFTING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY RAIN AND
NIGHTTIME DRIZZLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS PICK UP ON MONDAY...GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  ANOTHER LOW WILL SCRAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TUE...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 105 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

A LARGE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

LOW STRATUS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER AND FOG LARGELY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. TEMPS AT 15Z WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. IN LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...SHOULD SEE CU
REDEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO
A 20 POP OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS. HRRR INDICATING THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 18Z WITH DRY WEATHER
THEREAFTER. WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE TO CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS. FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERN INDIANA
OR OHIO COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER SKY COVER HERE...BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND THE FEATURE ITSELF POTENTIALLY BEING FURTHER EAST
PRECLUDE ANY POP MENTION.

GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS GUIDANCE
DID A BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS EXPECTING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR HIGHS USED A CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY...BUT WENT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TOO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW PER THE CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION.

PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TOO FAST BASED ON THE
REMAINING LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 144 HOUR GEM FRONTAL
POSITION FROM THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PULLED
SMALL POPS FROM THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ILX...PAH...LMK AND ILN. WITH THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST
PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW MEAN LEVEL
RH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FROM THE CR INIT...EXCEPT WILL BUMP THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY BASED ON LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 00Z
ECMWF 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE CELSIUS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

BECOMING VFR QUICKLY AT ALL SITES THAT HAVE NOT YET DONE SO...MAINLY
JUST IND. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY.

LOW CEILINGS AND FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AT SOME
SITES...BUT ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY NOW. SCT TO BKN030-040 SHOULD BE
THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS LOWER CLOUD
DISSIPATING AT SUNSET.

SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...AND
EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH. WILL CARRY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WITH A
SCT015 MENTION LATE TONIGHT AT IND/LAF/HUF...AND IFR AT BMG. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1135 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS. SHOWERS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA
ARE DIMINISHING AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE
SHOULD ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GOING HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TODAY)

THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PD IS DETERMINING WHICH PARTS
OF THE CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN THROUGH 00Z.

07Z METARS AND MSAS SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
FIELDS DEPICTED AN E-W ORIENTED BDRY BISECTING THE CWA. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MO PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK
AT H25 OVER CENTRAL IL NOTED ON THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND
SUPPORTED BY AREA VWP/PROFILER OBS. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND RER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURVED JET STREAK
WERE SUPPORTING ISO-SCT SHRA ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE BDRY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF
THE CWA BY DAYBREAK WITH PCPN DIMINISHING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN TO THE
REGION AS A SFC HIGH SINKS SWD. HOWEVER...THE BDRY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT /ALBEIT SLOWLY SINKING SWD/ ACROSS PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED
UPSTREAM AT 07Z NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...MODELS DO SHOW SOME 300-250MB
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN CWA DURING THE DAY AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE CO/KS SHORTWAVE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISO-SCT
SHRA THIS AFTN INVOF THE BDRY.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
(TONIGHT - TUESDAY)

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS GIVEN US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX THIS PAST WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO NW TO N FLOW THAT SHOULD GIVE
US A QUIETER PERIOD FOR A BIT.  THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL INITIALLY
BE HELPED OUT BY A POLAR VORTEX DIGGING INTO THE GRTLKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND LATER BY A TROF THAT DIGS INTO THE CNTRL AND S CNTRL
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.  THE SFC IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A TROF
WILL TAKE A SWIPE MAINLY AT THE IL SIDE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL PWATS FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY...LIFTING MECHANISMS TOO WEAK...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.  NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH FAVOR THE MAV MOS NUMBERS WHICH IN MOST CASES ARE
RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN THE MET MOS.

UP UNTIL THIS POINT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.  WE
START TO SEE SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINNING MONDAY WHERE THE ECMWF
DRAGS A CDFNT THRU WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT WEST OF THE FA WHERE IT
THEN DISSIPATES IT AND RE-ESTABLISHES THE RIDGE.  IT APPEARS WITH
RESPECT TO THE BOTTOM LINE...THIS IS A MINOR QUIBBLE AS THE ECMWF
STRUGGLES TO BRING ANY MOISTURE UP IN TIME FOR WHEN IT BRINGS THE
CDFNT THRU...AND IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...SHOULD GO THRU DRY AS A
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SE WILL STEAL THE SHOW AND HOG THE SENSIBLE
WX.  WILL NEED TO WATCH EXACTLY WHERE THIS SERN CONUS SYSTEM GOES AS
IT COULD EDGE SOME PARTS OF SERN MO AND SRN IL ON MONDAY.  TEMPS
COULD BE A BIGGER SOURCE OF ERROR HERE...NAMELY IF THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GOES THRU OR NOT...BUT TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SEEM
THE BETTER BET.

(WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THEIR STANDOFF INTO THE MID AND LATER PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF FEATURES ZONAL FLOW RETURNING BUT MORE IN
THE FORM OF A PLATEAUED OUT BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS IT GETS ABSORBED.  EITHER WAY...BOTH ARE
TAKING ANOTHER...STRONGER...CDFNT THRU THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE DIFFS IN FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TIMING QUANDARY WITH THE
FRONT BY AS MUCH AS 24HRS.  THE GFS TAKES THE CDFNT THRU WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN/T UNTIL THURSDAY.  BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED AND WILL MAKE FOR
LIMITED AMOUNTS TO WORK WITH.  VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT
FRONT CAN GENERATE PCPN HERE BUT IF STRENGTH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IS
SUFFICIENT...IT MAY.  ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
FRONT.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

GENERALLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT KCPS AND KSUS
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN CALM AT THESE AIRPORTS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING TO CAUSE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR BETWEEN
09-14Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 30
HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 215 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN NEW JERSEY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER
OF PA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN PIKE/SULLIVAN COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY WILL ALL BECOME JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SFC LOW TRACKS TOWARD LONG ISLAND. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST POPS NRN/ERN CWA IN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING.
SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES BACK ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND EXPECT
AREA TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY. BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS LOWERED
MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISC... 4 AM UPDATE... LARGE SCALE UL LOW LOCATED ACRS
LABRADOR AND OVR HUDSON BAY. S/WV IS RIPPING THRU CNTRL
PA...SPURRING SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NY/PA AND NJ AT THIS HOUR.
ELONGATED SFC LOW EXTNDS ACRS THE SPINE OF THE APPS. GREATEST 3HR
SFC PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED OVR ERN PA AND 00Z NAM/GFS TENDS TO
AGREE ON THIS MVMNT THRU 12Z.

HOW FAR NORTH THIS RAIN PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA IS UP FOR DEBATE AND
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF THE FA WL BE IMPACTED. NAM/GFS ARE
FURTHEST TO THE NORTH WITH THIS PCPN. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
CONFINED FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFORE HV DROPPED POPS ACRS FAR NRN
ZONES NORTH OF A PENN YAN TO SYR TO BOONVILLE LINE THRU 12Z.

AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES AIR MASS WL BEGIN TO SATURATE DOWN WITH LKLY
POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THRU THE MRNG HRS. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WL BE PRESENT TWD DAYBREAK WITH
NAM INDICATING CAPES ARND 200 J/KG AND GFS AT 0 THRU THE DAY TODAY.
THUS HV ADDED IN SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA...MOCLDY SKIES WL BE PRESENT THRU THE DAY WITH
H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO BLO 10C. THUS HIGHS WL ONLY REACH TO NR 60F
ACRS UPSTATE NY WITH WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID-UPR 60S.

AS LOPRES WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE NE PCPN WL COME TO AN END BY 00Z.
TOTAL QPF AMNTS APPEAR TO BE ARND 1.00 INCH THRU 00Z TONIGHT ACRS
THE WRN CATS AND POCONOS. RMNDR OF THE REGION WL SEE AMNTS ARND 0.50
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
RAIN WL COME TO AN END BY SAT MRNG WITH H8 CLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING
INTO THE CWA. MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE MID-40S AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE U30S IN FAVORED LOW VLYS ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER WHERE CAA WL BE
STRONGEST. H5 LOW WL DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE
(NAM/GFS/EC) DROPPING IT TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 12Z SAT.

AS UL LOW APPCHS ON SAT ISOLD SHRAS WL DVLP ACRS THE CWA. THIS UL
LOPRES SYSTEM WL AFFECT CNTRL NY/NEPA THRU THE SHORT TERM. SFC LOW
WL DVLP AND MV INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH PCPN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

POPS INCRS FOR SUN AFTN AND INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH LKLY POPS
THRU 12Z MON. TEMPS DRG THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WL AVG NR
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SETUP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE AN EJECTING 500MB CUTOFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE NORTH OF
MAINE. THEY ALSO INDICATE THAT A 500MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH A SFC LOW AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHOWERS WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED POPS SLIGHTLY
TO HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN NEPA. THE SOUTHERN TIER, AND CATSKILLS.
FROM THERE, MODEL DIFFER SLIGHTLY. THE ECMWF SHOWS SHOWERS MAY TRY
TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST, CLIPPING THE EASTERN ZONES, WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS COMING RIGHT ACROSS THE ON
TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO CHC FOR THESE AREAS AND SLIGHT CHC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER TENNESSEE, BLOCKED
BY A BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH. SEVERAL WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE HIGH,
WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS COULD END UP KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY
06Z, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT
THE ECMWF, THERE IS A SHORT WAVE AT 500MB WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD, ENDING UP JUST NORTH
OF MAINE BY 06Z FRIDAY, KEEPING THE CWA DRY. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY FOR
NOW, AS THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST AT BEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW, A WEAK SFC LOW, AND PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE, HAVE KEPT A
VERY LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE MODELS, THIS LOW
DECK SHOULD EVER SO SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE THEY FINALLY RISE ENOUGH TO GO EVEN MVFR. WITH THE LOW
DECK, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS
MAY STILL SEE FOG EITHER DEVELOP, OR REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW. HAVE
PLAYED THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW, AS CIGS ARE NOT RISING
MUCH AND RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

WINDS LOOK TO BE THE LEAST CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THEY
WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND BECOMING NW A
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...GENERALLY VFR.

SUN THROUGH WED...VFR WITH MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...SLI
AVIATION...SLI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 126 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WAVE/VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WVA ATTM THE MAIN PLAYER THIS
MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING FROM AROUND THE SMALL
COMMA HEAD SOUTH INTO SW VA PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TAKES THIS IMPULSE NE ALONG THE FRONT INTO NORTH/CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY DAMPENS IT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SAGS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO THE WEST TO WEAKEN PUSHING OUT EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN
LACK OF EARLY INSTABILITY BUT MAY BE ENOUGH SHRA/CLOUDS TO INHIBIT
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPTIONS LIKELY OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SEEN OFF MORNING RAOBS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE BREAKS. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO BUMP POPS TO LIKELY A BIT
SOONER FAR WEST WHILE TRIMMING OUT EAST WHERE WILL STILL BE A FEW
HOURS PUSHING ANY SHRA OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. LEFT OVERALL LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN COMBO OF
WAVE/FRONT AND SOME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS TRICKY AS EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RISES
NW EARLY ON WHILE SEEING SOME SUN PIEDMONT AND FAR SOUTH.
THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN HIGHS IN THE WEST AND NORTH A FEW DEGREES
WHILE LEAVING THE EAST MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 420 AM EDT FRIDAY...

COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM LOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO ANOTHER LOW
IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE KENTUCKY LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG A DC TO WESTERN KENTUCKY LINE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW GOES BY.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RADAR WAS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WARM...MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF
DATA KEPT A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19Z/3PM AND
01Z/9PM. HAVE ALIGNED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO FOLLOW THIS
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTY WARNING AREA. CLOUD
COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE INSTABILITY TODAY AND THE
LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WITH CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA...APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WERE THERE WILL BE MORE HEATING AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS
REGION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT GETTING MORE SUN THIS MORNING HAVE
USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST.
WILL ALSO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ON THE MILD
SIDE...WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED OFF LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE
THE AREAS WEATHER BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS
SHORT WAVES PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

MODELS ARE PAINTING SHOWERS ACROSS RNK SOUTH IN THE MORNING...THEN
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST...I DISREGARDED THESE
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHERLY. IN FURTHER DISSECTING THE MODELS...THERE
IS AN 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FURTHERMORE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WOULD PROMOTE
SHOWERS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH. SO I AM CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THINKING MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FADE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN THE EAST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.
CONSIDERING THE FLIP-FLOP NATURE OF THE MODELS LATELY AND FORECAST
COLLABORATION...WILL ALSO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND THEREFORE LOOKING AT MORE OF A
DRY DAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GFS IS DEFINITELY TRENDING TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION NOW WITH MUCH
LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. PATTERN WILL ESSENTIALLY EVOLVE FROM A DEEP TROF
IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW PROGGED TO SET UP SHOP OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL
BRING DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA. ONE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A BIT
OF A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW PUSHING OUT TO
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR AT KLWB AND PERHAPS KLYH THRU 19Z/3 PM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EAST WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE LIKELY AFFECTING KDAN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL OTHER SITES AS THE
REGION BRIEFLY SLIDES INTO A BREAK BETWEEN THE CURRENT WAVE AND
THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER KY.

THIS NEXT WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS TO SLIP THROUGH THE NW LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS REACHING THE VA/NC BORDER OVERNIGHT. LATEST
NAM QUITE BULLISH ON BRINGING IN IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW CIGS BEHIND
THE EXITING SHRA THIS EVENING BUT LOOKS OVERDONE OUTSIDE OF SE WVA
WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SEEING AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TONIGHT. ELSW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE LATEST LAMP DATA WITH A COMP
TOWARD THE NAM LATE WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT GETS PUSHED INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO ERODE
LOW CIGS OVER THE SOUTH UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. SOME -RA ALSO
POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND KDAN IN THE MORNING BUT WONT INCLUDE
MENTION ATTM WHILE KEEPING VFR CIGS MOST SPOTS UNTIL MID MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KDAN. SHOULD FINALLY SEE CLOUDS AND A
RETURN TO VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AROUND OUT EAST SAT EVENING FOR NOW. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM
THE GULF WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING WEATHER TUESDAY.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KFCX DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SERVES THE ROANOKE AND SURROUNDING
AREA IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO BE TAKEN DOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING MONDAY OCTOBER 1ST FOR ITS UPGRADE TO DUAL POLARIZATION
TECHNOLOGY. NEIGHBORING DOPPLER RADARS AT STERLING VA (KLWX)...
WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ)...RALEIGH NC (KRAX)...GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG
SC (KGSP)...MORRISTOWN TN (KMRX)...AND CHARLESTON WV (KRLX) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE KFCX AREA DURING
THE INSTALLATION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KM
EQUIPMENT...