Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/23/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1000 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED FOR THE EVENING. THE ONLY
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CO NW PLATEAU UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUE
TO ALLOW A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS
DELAYED ONSET OF CONVECTION BUT AS CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO
CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY HAS PULSED UP IN THE LAST
HOUR. RUC13 AND WV ARE SHOWING TWO POTENTIAL TRIGGERS IN THIS FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER IS OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT ONCE AGAIN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO RAIN LIGHTNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY
MONDAY...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWRD TUESDAY...
FLATTENING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME DYNAMIC
INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT IS
SEEN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NOTABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE A
LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR PROFILE ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THAT AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO REBUILD OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN THURSDAY
HELPING HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROF IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH OUR PACIFIC COAST
FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL THEN ALLOW A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO REDEVELOP.
ACCOMPANYING THIS FLOW WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAFS SITES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. UNTIL ABOUT 09Z LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES OF NW COLORADO AND ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTH OF I-70. ON MONDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING IN EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PEAKING BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 03Z...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...CC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

252 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE MOIST AS SHOWN BY THE GJT SOUNDING AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS. WATER VAPOR AND RUC13 PICKING UP A SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP BEST FORCING
FROM THIS WAVE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...RUC13 AND NAM12 ALSO SHOW INDICATIONS
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THIS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY AS
MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FETCH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

A COUPLE OF MINOR CHANGES SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD...OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE SENSIBLE WX PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE POSITION TO BRING A
STEADY STREAM OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SWRN U.S. INCLUDING ERN UT
AND WRN CO. IN THE MEANTIME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVES EWRD INTO SRN ALBERTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FLATTENS
THE RIDGE SOME AND RESULTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING
FROM SWRLY TO NWRLY BY TUES AFTERNOON. BUT LIKE STATED ABOVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT IS SEEN ON OUR SENSIBLE WX PATTERN. THIS HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION IS SEEN WED/THU AS A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INVADES THE REGION. HOWEVER IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO FIRE THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING LATE THIS MORNING.

AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS APPEARING OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS 18Z. BY MID-AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
RESULT IN FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. REGIONAL AIRPORTS WHICH ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO HIGHER TERRAIN FACE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22Z
TO 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE...BUT NOT FULLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...TGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

137 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODELS AND HRRR DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIPITATION - WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT IN THE MODELS OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN PA AND JUST INTO UPSTATE NY NOT INDICATED. AS A
RESULT...UPDATED POPS MANUALLY TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO
GET STARTED...BUT WORKED TOWARDS A SREF/NAM/HRRR POP BLEND BY 12Z.

ALSO ADDED IN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL PRECIPITATION SLIDES
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH BY 9-10Z.

PREVIOUS UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE WORKING FAIRLY WELL
- DID DO SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE - WITH
IDEA OF LOWS PRIMARILY FROM UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S ON TRACK - WITH A
FEW MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS PERSISTENT
EAST WINDS CONT ALONG WITH AN 8-9 PERIOD SECOND SE SWELL.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
JET STREAK EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SPLIT AT 500MB. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES FARTHER OUT
TO SEA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BUILDING MORE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FRIDAY AND HIGHS WERE
CHOSEN FROM MAV/MET BLEND. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE REGION WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. LOWS TAKEN FROM MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US KEEPS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL
PUSHED INTO NORTHERN CANADA. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...BOTH HIGH
TEMPS ON SUN AND OVERNIGHT MON WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY SUN NIGHT IS THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
BRINGING THE VORT MAX THROUGH CENTRAL NY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISO SHOWER FOR A PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT.

CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING 12Z MON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BOTH
THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCT ACTIVITY. SCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...SO WILL
ALSO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE BEST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP MON
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CWA...AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. KEPT THE CHC WORDING IN THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH THROUGH. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE QUICKER SOLUTION..MOVING
THROUGH DURING TUES MORNING...AND THE 12Z ECMWF LINGERING UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE THE FRONT MAKES ITS
PASSAGE BY TUES NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE MID
WEEK...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...CREATING PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
WED AND THURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CLEARLY DIVERGES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING FORTH A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE BY LATE FRIDAY...WHILE THE
12Z GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. USING MAINLY HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION
OF TIMING OF BOTH SURFACE LOW AND PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LEADING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ON FRI AND CHC POPS FOR SAT.

TEMPS FLUCTUATING DURING THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FLOW BRINGS IN 850MB TEMPS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MON AND TUES
FOR INLAND AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...COASTAL AREAS
COULD STILL SEE NEAR NORMAL. FOR THIS...USED A BLENDED DGEX/MOS
GUIDANCE. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEE BRIEF COOLING...AND USING HPC
GUIDANCE...PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 08Z AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR AND BECOME UNLIMITED DURING SATURDAY.

WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST...THEN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON-TUE...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
.WED...VFR.

.MARINE...
MINOR UPDATES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
RADAR...OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT - AS FORECAST.

PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER A LONG DISTANCE OR FETCH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS COULD APPROACH 25 KT WINDS ON
THE OCEAN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUE. CAN ALSO EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON MON AND TUES. WITH NO CLEAR
PERSISTING WIND FLOW THIS WEEK...SHOULDN/T SEE WAVES HAVE THE
CHANCE TO BUILD UP TO ABOVE 5 FT ON THE WATERS FOR THE WEEK.
MAINLY USED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...BLENDING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
MORNING FOR A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE FROM 1.5 - 2 INCHES
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING - WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.
CURRENTLY THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING/ORGANIZATION
OF ANY CONVECTION TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO
AND TO SPECIFY ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT APPEARS THAT WATER LEVELS ON THE WESTERN SOUND WILL LIKELY FALL
A 1/2 A FT OR SO BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS - LIKE THEY
DID FOR THE HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUND TO TOUCH MINOR BENCHMARKS - WILL JUST ALLOW COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT THERE TO EXPIRE AT 6Z AS SCHEDULED.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/JM/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JM/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1254 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

ALSO ADDED IN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL PRECIPITATION SLIDES
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH BY 9-10Z.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS PERSISTENT
EAST WINDS CONT ALONG WITH AN 8-9 PERIOD SECOND SE SWELL.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 06Z AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR AND BECOME UNLIMITED DURING SATURDAY.

WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON-TUE...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
.WED...VFR.

.MARINE...
MINOR UPDATES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
RADAR...OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT - AS FORECAST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/JM/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JM/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1134 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY
AND DISSIPATE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
STALL NEAR VIRGINIA AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TRAIL FORMING IN THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY HAS EXTENDED INTO NEW JERSEY...REACHING TOWARD
THE MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY ELEVATED...AS THE 0000 UTC OKX
SOUNDING (AND THE EXPANDING CLUTTER ON THE KDIX RADAR) SHOWS
STABLE LOW LEVELS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH PROBABLY DOES NOT LAST MUCH LONGER.

THE NEXT QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS WHAT (IF ANY) OF THE
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVELS THETA AXIS
LOWS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO THE BEST ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOLLOW THAT TRAIL. THE WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW ONE OR TWO WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. EITHER ONE OF THESE
ELEMENTS...ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
(SHOWN ON THE 0000 UTC KBUF SOUNDING) COULD BRING SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST ZONES...MAINLY BETWEEN 0900
UTC AND 1200 UTC MONDAY.

THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST...AS WELL AS
THE 0000 UTC NAM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
OUTRUNS ITS INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD MAKE
THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...WINDS OR
SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THIS TIME OF YEAR IT TAKES VERY LITTLE ENERGY TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ANYWHERE IN OUR CWA AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS..AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SERIES
OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
THROUGH TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS TRICKY WITH EACH PASSAGE.
NONE-THE-LESS, DEWPOINTS WILL BE CLIMBING TO NEAR 70F AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 IN MOST SPOTS SO WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT
SEEING CONVECTION BEGIN BY LATE MORNING.

THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AND THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT, AROUND 6.5C/KM FOR BOTH, THERE IS
PLENTY OF MEAN LAYER CAPE TO EAT UP. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, WITH
THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GET THINGS
GOING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY NOON AND COULD PERMEATE DOWN
THROUGH PHILADELPHIA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR PARAMETERS DO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS COULD FORM
TO OUR NORTHWEST. PWATS JUMP UPWARDS TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME SO ANY STORMS WILL DUMP A LOT OF RAIN IN
A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MANY ISSUES WITH
FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT, BUT
AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE, POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS COULD HAVE
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED WITH OSCILLATIONS BETWEEN
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER, PROBABLY WITH STRONG STORMS AT
TRANSITION TIMES, AND A COUPLE OF SEASONABLY PLEASANT DAYS.
THE WRF-NMMB`S INITIALIZATION ALOFT WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
GFS, BUT THE GFS REMAINED COMPARABLE AT 850MB AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 925MB.

OF LATE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND AS SUCH OUR CONFIDENCE AS TO THE DETAILS AND
TIMING WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN AVERAGE.

STARTING ON MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION OR CHANCES THEREOF SHOULD BE
CONTINUING IN OUR CWA AS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BOTH DECENT WAA
THRU THE NIGHT AND DPVA EARLY. SPEAKING OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS,
SOME DO SHOW CHANCES OF AN MCS OR REMNANT LATE. THIS IS SHOWING UP
IN THE WRF-NMMB AND ECMWF STABILITY FIELDS AS A FCST TT(S) BULLSEYE
PASSES OVERNIGHT. UNTIL WE CAN DECIPHER THIS FURTHER, WE DID CARRY
THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY, DROPPED THEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND
THEN SHOW ANOTHER RISE TOWARD MORNING. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MUGGY
NIGHT BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. STAT GUIDANCE OVERALL LOOKS
REASONABLE AND A COMPROMISE/CONTINUITY BLEND WAS FOLLOWED.

CAN NOT GET MORE MIXED SIGNALS THAN WE HAVE RIGHT NOW FOR TUESDAY
DAY. ON THE ONE HAND WE HAVE THE DYNAMITE NORTHWEST FLOW, NEAR
EXIT REGION OF THE H2.5 JET, FCST CAPES ABOVE 2000J, INCREASING
FCST BULK SHEAR VALUES OF GREATER THAN 30KTS, MAYBE AN UNTURNED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND A 20C DROP OF THETA E WITH HEIGHT FCST.
BUT, AT THE SAME TIME THE MODELS DONT EXACTLY HAVE US ON THE
CORRECT SIDE OF THAT H2.5 JET, ARE SHOWING WESTERLY FLOW AS FAR
DOWNWARD AS 925MB, NEGATIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY, DECREASING VS POOLING FCST AFTN DEW POINTS AND THE UNKNOWN
AS TO HOW MANY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FROM ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION.
THE FCST 925MB WINDS AND NEGATIVE THETA E ADVECTION ARE ENOUGH
NEGATIVE SIGNALS FOR NOW TO HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
BASED ON THE THERMODYNAMICS, BEST CHANCES WOULD BE SOUTH BECAUSE
OF THE FCST INSTABILITY. KINEMATICALLY, GFS REMAINS PRETTY NOISY
WITH ITS SHORT WAVES, SO WANT TO SEE HOW THEY DEVELOP (OR DONT)
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR NOW SUFFICIENT CHANCE TO MAKE
MENTION IN THE HWO ABOUT STRONGER STORMS, BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR ANYWHERE ELSE.

THERMALLY SPEAKING, ITS HARD TO FIND WHERE THE +26C ON THE WRF-NMMB
COMES FROM EARLY ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WAYS
LOWER 90S ARE STILL POSSIBLE, EITHER WITH THE FRONT BEING SLOWER OR
JUST IN THE GENERAL KATABATIC NW SFC FLOW. ONLY WAY WE MAY BE TOO
ROBUST WITH MAX TEMPS IS IF CLOUD COVERAGE PERSISTS LONGER THAN
WE ARE ANTICIPATING. MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY. BECAUSE OF THE FCST AFTERNOON NW FLOW IN THE I95
CORRIDOR, AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES FOR URBAN AREAS AND FALL ABOUT 5F SHORT
ELSEWHERE FARTHER TO THE SE.

WE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE EARLY SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN
CARRIED NO POPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE
DIGGING TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NE OF OUR CWA. A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS BASED ON FCST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WHICH CORROBORATE BOTH
MEX AND EC MOS. THEN A RADIATING TYPE NIGHT POTENTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PENDING HOW QUICKLY WAA INDUCED CLOUDS ARRIVE.

THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUR WAY ON THURSDAY. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WERE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON MORE
CLOUDINESS AND PCPN BEING AROUND TO POSSIBLY SLOW THE RISE.

BEYOND THURSDAY, IT BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL GET AND CONVERSELY HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM LEANED TOWARD
CONTINUITY UNTIL MORE SOUNDING RUN TO SOUNDING RUN CONSISTENCY
OCCURS. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ONE (FRIDAY) AND MAYBE TWO MORE HOT
AND HUMID DAYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BEFORE MORE RELIEF
ARRIVES DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT A VFR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME
LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT, BUT WE HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY MVFR DECK AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION MAINLY AT THE NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES, BUT WE DEEM THAT
TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY SITE WHERE WE HAVE PUT IN
SOME MVFR FOG IS AT RDG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS ALL CONSTITUTES A
VERY MODEST PESSIMISTIC TURN TO THE TAFS.

ON MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH A VFR
DECK IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS OUR SITES. SOME MENTION
OF THIS WAS INCLUDED FOR THE THREE NORTHERNMOST SITES ONLY WITH
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL VFR...POCKETS OF MVFR DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE LATTER NORTH.

.MARINE...
MONDAY WILL PERMIT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER TO THE EAST, EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING, WITH WINDS
MORE FROM SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SINCE THE SURFACE FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT, THEY WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH DURING THE DAY. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY AND COULD
TOUCH OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WATERS
STARTING BY THE MID-AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY DAY, THE EXPECTATION IS WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN AT THE
SURFACE, EFFICIENT MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR. WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE.

A MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND ON THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
GONE BY WEDNESDAY DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
ALWAYS TRICKY AS STATED ABOVE AS MIXING SHOULD NOT BE THAT
EFFICIENT. THEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

953 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A LITTLE MID LEVEL ENEGRY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND WEAKENING
SURFACE FRONT AND A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL THEAT E ADVECTION COULD
CONCEIVABLY WORK WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER
SOME CONVECTION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME DECAYING ACTIVITY INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE
OPTED TO GIVE THE ONGOING FORECAST A CHANCE TO SUCCEED AND HAVE
LEFT OUT ANY POPS IN THE NEAR TERM.

GENERALLY, WE SHOULD HAVE A MID-DECK OF CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ELEVATED, BUT WE
HAVE ALLOWED JUST A LITTLE RADIATING AT THE MOST SHELTERED SITES.

OF LATE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND AS SUCH OUR CONFIDENCE AS TO THE DETAILS AND
TIMING WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL VFR...POCKETS OF MVFR DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE LATTER NORTH.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/DELISI
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES/HEAVENER/DELISI
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

324 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TODAY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE SURFACE-500MB RIDGE
OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE...SURFACE-500MB...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SETTLE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA SUNDAY. AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES NORTH...
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE LEVELS
SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5
INCHES. WEAK PRESSURE FIELD WILL ALLOW BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AS IT FORMS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHES INLAND. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION
OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FROM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO LAKE GEORGE AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST TO THE MIDDLE 90S IN THE INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...LINGERING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE INTERIOR. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 70S
INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND BEACHES CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

SUN-MON...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND TO THE NORTH WITH SE FLOW ACROSS EC
FL INTO THE EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY LATE SUN INTO MON AS TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND INTO REGION... BOOSTING PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF EC FL. POPS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE SCATTERED WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH AND THROUGH INTERIOR AS
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. POPS LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING
FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THEN WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH APPROACH OF THE WAVE. POPS CLIMB A
BIT FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY/NMRS CATEGORY THROUGH SOUTHERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH WAVE CROSSING THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS REACHING
NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY...MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE A SMIDGE LOWER ON MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND EARLIER PRECIP ONSET...BUT STILL WARM AND MUGGY...AS WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MID-UPPER 70S.

TUE-FRI...EFFECTS FROM WAVE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY TUESDAY. RIDGE
AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
DURING THE MID WEEK THEN MAY DRIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. POSITION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (30-40 PERCENT)...AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS...AT 20-30 PERCENT. RIDGE
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOW/MID 90S INTERIOR AND
AROUND 90 COAST BEFORE SEA BREEZE...SOME LOWER 90S VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST WITH POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS FAVORING SLIGHTLY LATER SEA BREEZE
ONSET NORTH.

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MARINE...CURRENT...TRIDENT PIER AT PORT CANAVERAL AND NOAA BUOYS
010 AND 012...EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND SAINT AUGUSTINE... WERE
RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS AND LESS. THE NOAA AND
SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIODS SEAS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD
GEORGIA.

SUN-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
EARLY WEEK...BEFORE REPOSITIONING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
DURING THE MID WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS LATE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE S-SE 10-15KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FT...UP TO 5
FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 76 90 77 / 20 20 30 30
MCO 94 75 94 76 / 20 30 40 30
MLB 90 78 89 78 / 20 20 40 30
VRB 89 78 89 77 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 94 77 95 77 / 20 30 40 30
SFB 94 77 95 77 / 20 30 40 30
ORL 94 77 95 77 / 20 30 40 30
FPR 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 40 40

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....GLITTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

724 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.AVIATION / 00Z TAF ISSUANCE / ...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT
WITH TRICKY FORECAST. HI RES MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT/MON AM AND AGAIN BY MON AFTN. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND MI WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO BEGINNING TO FIRE
ACROSS S MN/WI. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...MAY MAKE IT SE TO KSBN BY
3Z AND KFWA BY 9Z. NOT REAL OPTIMISTIC ABOUT COVERAGE AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCHS/CB MENTION AT VFR AT BOTH SITES.
EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND THIS WITH JUST BROKEN CIRRUS SHIELD BY LATE
MORNING. GIVEN ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MON AFTN/EVENING...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL SITUATION
CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S/SSW OVERNIGHT AND
THEN WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST ON MONDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 13
KT RANGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA FROM REMNANTS OF
UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN
BUT NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH MODERATELY CAPPED...SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT. SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL TOP THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING MORE OF AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE VS A FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH WITH TIME. HI RES MODELS ALL AGREE ON CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT SOMEWHERE FROM CNTRL MN INTO WISCONSIN. CORFIDI VECTOR SUGGEST
THIS WOULD TREND ESE WITH TIME...POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
ARE TONIGHT. LL JET WILL FOCUS INITIALLY TO THE NW OF THE REGION AND
BECOME WESTERLY WITH TIME. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN
NAM/LOCAL WRF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG SIGNALS FOR CONVECTION TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. 12Z 4KM SPC WRF DEVELOPS CONVECTION
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND TRACKS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN
LWR MI INTO FAR N INDIANA. 16Z HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...TRACKING SE TOWARDS THE
AREA AFTER 6Z. WITH ALL THE SCENARIOS IN PLAY...CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MODERATE IN CONVECTION AFFECTING OUR AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS CLOSER TO IN/MI STATE LINE INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE WHERE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LIE. WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING LL MSTR AND TEMPS...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN THE 70 TO 75
DEGREE RANGE.

FORECAST LEFT GENERALLY UNTOUCHED MON/MOM NGT WITH IMPACTS OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO BE KEY IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND CLOUD COVER TO RAISE
POTENTIAL HAVOC WITH TEMPS. MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON THAT WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR A 10 TO 20
DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPS DURING PEAK HEATING. SERIES OF WAVES WILL
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. HAVE LEFT LOW TO MID RANGE CHC POPS AS
IT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE IS
SEEN...GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP US
CONFINED IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...
DIFFICULT PD COMING UP W/AS YET SIG UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING IMPULSE
LADEN PERTURBED FLW EXTNDG W-E ALG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HWVR MED
RANGE CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE NOTION OF CNTRL US RIDGE FLATTENING BY
MID WEEK W/EPISODIC CONVN XPCD. THE DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS AND
SPECIFICALLY TIMING AND EWD EJECTION OF SIG SW TROUGH SITTING OF
VANCOUVER THIS AFTN OVRTOP PLAINS RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
CONSIDERABLE LG SCALE AGREEMENT EXISTS W/12Z GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE
DISPLACEMENTS OF NEAR STATIONARY FNTL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY LIKELY OWING TO XPCD UPSTREAM DVLPMNT OF CONV COMPLEXES
STEERING ESE OVR THE UPR RIDGE TUE-WED AND INVOF OF UPR TROUGH ACRS
THE WRN LAKES THU-THU NIGHT. WHILE NOT ENTHUSED W/4 DAY WINDOW OF
POPS CAN NOT ARGUE AT HOLDING W/AT LEAST A LOWER BOUND CHC MENTION
EITHER AND WILL GENERALLY HOLD CLOSE W/PRIOR GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE TEMPS INHERENTLY TRICKY PER PROXIMAL THERMAL RIDGE
POSITION W/BOUTS OF INTENSE LL WAA LIKELY. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ACCEPTED W/NOTED SW-NE ORIENTED GRADIENT XPCD ACRS THE FNTL ZONE BUT
AGAIN POTENTIALLY COLDER/WARMER PENDING EXACT PLACEMENT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...OBERGFELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

326 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
DIFFICULT PD COMING UP W/AS YET SIG UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING IMPULSE
LADEN PERTURBED FLW EXTNDG W-E ALG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HWVR MED
RANGE CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE NOTION OF CNTRL US RIDGE FLATTENING BY
MID WEEK W/EPISODIC CONVN XPCD. THE DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS AND
SPECIFICALLY TIMING AND EWD EJECTION OF SIG SW TROUGH SITTING OF
VANCOUVER THIS AFTN OVRTOP PLAINS RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
CONSIDERABLE LG SCALE AGREEMENT EXISTS W/12Z GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE
DISPLACEMENTS OF NEAR STATIONARY FNTL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY LIKELY OWING TO XPCD UPSTREAM DVLPMNT OF CONV COMPLEXES
STEERING ESE OVR THE UPR RIDGE TUE-WED AND INVOF OF UPR TROUGH ACRS
THE WRN LAKES THU-THU NIGHT. WHILE NOT ENTHUSED W/4 DAY WINDOW OF
POPS CAN NOT ARGUE AT HOLDING W/AT LEAST A LOWER BOUND CHC MENTION
EITHER AND WILL GENERALLY HOLD CLOSE W/PRIOR GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION...
LITTLE FANFARE WITH DECAYING MCS MOVING TOWARDS BOTH TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS VARY ON HANDLING OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF MI AND WI. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
TONIGHT BUT LIKELY WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL OR MAYBE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE RESPECTIVE STATES. SEVERAL FACTORS IN PLACE TO
YIELD A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AT KSBN TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SPREADING TO KFWA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUS VCSH MENTION IN BOTH TAFS WITH
VFR CIGS/VSBYS.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND DRY...HOWEVER
AM KEEPING A WATCHFUL EYE ON SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN SD.
IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...HIGHER MLCAPE AND K INDEX WITH LOWER MLCINH.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALSO INCREASES FARTHER EAST TO KEEP ORGANIZATION IF
IT SUSTAINS ITSELF. MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A TURN TO
THE SE EVENTUALLY IF IT KEEPS GOING AS WELL. RAP 310K ISENT SURFACE
DEPICTS SERN MN AS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RELATIVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX. UPSTREAM
OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED NW LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
BY RECENT STANDARDS IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS IOWA DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. DEW POINTS IN THE RIDGE ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AS
WELL...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RETURNING
TO NW IOWA...SO DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S THERE.
FLOW ALOFT IS STILL FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
TO OUR WEST. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING SOME SHALLOW YET HIGH-BASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER
THAT AREA. CLOUDS 12-15 THOUSAND FEET MAY SPILL INTO NORTHERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR A SIMILAR THEME OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THOUGH COOLER TODAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT HEAT SHOULD RETURN
SOUTHWEST HALF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE GENERALLY UNABATED
THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. IN THE EAST THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT A
DAY LATER AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS ABOUT THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT FROM TIME TO
TIME AND WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...THE GENERAL TRENDS REMAIN
THE SAME. HAVE OPTED...AS EARLIER DISCUSSED...TO NOT PUT THE FAR
NORTH IN ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT THERE MAY BE A 24 TO 48 HOUR
PERIOD THAT NEEDS AT LEAST AN ADV HEADLINE UP NORTH. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED H850 TEMPS...MIXING AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WE SHOULD
EASILY TOP 100 FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND COME
CLOSE AT TIMES TO 95 OR SO IN THE FAR NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN THE
WILD CARD. IF THE FRONT APPROACHES THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE BUT CLOUDS MAY ALSO INCREASE. THE TWO
SHOULD OFFSET EACH OTHER AND OVERALL THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR
IN EITHER CASE. WARNING IS DEFINITELY WARRANTED FOR THE DURATION AND
EXPECTED HIGHS OVER THE NEXT DAYS. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO WED
NIGHT/THURS...THE GEM/GFS SO FAR HAVE DROPPED THE FRONT SOUTH OF
IOWA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER H850 TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND NORTHEAST.
THIS TREND WAS NOTED ON TUESDAY...BUT WENT AWAY IN THE MODELS 24
HOURS AGO. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY PENETRATE THE AREA AND IF THE RIDGE
IS FINALLY RELAXES FOR MORE THAN JUST A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. THIS
IS KEY TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND THE REASON THE HEAT WARNINGS
END MID EVENING WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. IF THERE ARE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES COMING UP IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AREAL OUTLINE WILL BE
MODIFIED. NEW 12Z EURO JUST IN AND TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOTTEST AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE WITH
US FROM MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...ALL OF TUESDAY...AND A GOOD SHARE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO INCREASES PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WE MAY VERY WELL INDEED SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND
LOWER HUMIDITY...FOR NOW WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. WITH
WESTERLIES INCREASING...SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING. MORE
DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.

.AVIATION...21/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN PERIODS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THE SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN SD MAY AFFECT KFOD...BUT CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL AND NOT INCLUDED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SLY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1PM SAT TO 9PM WED
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MARION-MONROE-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-
TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1PM SUN TO 9PM WED
BLACK HAWK-BUTLER-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-
POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO-WRIGHT

UPDATE/AVIATION...SMALL
SHORT TERM...JUNGBLUTH
LONG TERM...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

234 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING THIN CIRRUS TO ROTATE NORTHWEST
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME FLAT CU HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WRN QUARTER OF THE CWA ATOP A LEE TROUGH. TEMPS THUS FAR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WHERE THE RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN PLACE. THE SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THUS FAR...SO ONLY PORTIONS OF THE WARNING ARE
VERIFYING TO THIS POINT. HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW DESPITE THE HRRR GENERATING ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH (WHERE THE CU IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED).

FOR TONIGHT I WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOLLOWING LAST
NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT WITH LOW 100S ACROSS
THE BOARD...WARMEST EAST WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY IS. HAVE DEBATED
WHETHER TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW FOR GENERALLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS TODAY/S RED FLAG WARNING. THE FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACH CRITERIA BUT THE WINDS APPEAR A BIT TOO
LIGHT. WANT TO SEE HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT AS TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE
NEARLY IDENTICAL FOR MET CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGES REGARDING THE AIRMASS ALOFT WITH SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS
EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY WITH
EASTERN LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SOME AFTER TUESDAY AS H5 HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO DECREASE...HOWEVER WITH RIDGING OF SOME FASHION EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...DEPENDING ON WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE TRAINING SHORTWAVE...WITH ECMWF FURTHER
SOUTH AND STRONGER. IGNORING THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. DEEP DRY LAYER TO 650MB
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THESE PERIODS. BASED ON SOUNDINGS ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY BE FAVORED...HOWEVER WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING QPF OF SOME SORT AROUND THE AREA SO
MEASURABLE PRECIP CANT BE RULED OUT. I DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CUT OFF FROM OUR AREA. WITH
STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA..CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER OUR CWA...SO I KEPT FORECAST DRY AFTER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

DUE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION VFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER 25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT BEFORE COMING
BACK UP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

DAILY RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (JUL 22)...
GOODLAND.....105 (1934)
HILL CITY....108 (1934)
BURLINGTON...104 (1990)
MCCOOK.......110 (1931)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107

DAILY RECORDS FOR MONDAY (JUL 23)...
GOODLAND.....110 (1936)
HILL CITY....107 (1940)
BURLINGTON...105 (1963)
MCCOOK.......106 (1940)
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........105

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-
029-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

125 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
WEATHER. MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR DAY TO DAY TEMPS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION INTO THE PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EC
SHOWS A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS...AND AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDING TO THE GFS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS
WITH THE EC. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES FROM DAYTIME THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HOT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT
COOLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING A DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DAILY RECORDS FOR SATURDAY (JUL 21)...
GOODLAND.....105 (2005)
HILL CITY....110 (1934)
BURLINGTON...103 (2005)
MCCOOK.......105 (2005)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........106

DAILY RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (JUL 22)...
GOODLAND.....105 (1934)
HILL CITY....108 (1934)
BURLINGTON...104 (1990)
MCCOOK.......110 (1931)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-
029-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1106 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN PLACE WITH ITS MAIN AXIS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND EAST TOWARDS
THE KS CO BORDER.

WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE SURFACE TROUGHS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A VERY
STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL...SO I HAVE KEPT ANY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW.

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAIN CONCERN IS NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING AIRMASS SLIGHTLY ALOFT THAN TODAY...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WITH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. IF RH VALUES WERE
TO DROP TO 10 PERCENT IN THE WEST THEN WE COULD MEET CRITERIA.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
PLANNED FOR SATURDAY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 100 TO 110 RANGE WITH APPARENT TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 103 TO 108 RANGE. AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HAD CONSIDERED UPGRADING AT
LEAST FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICIES BUT THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR DEW POINTS WILL MIX EACH
AFTERNOON. IF THEY ARE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...APPARENT
TEMP VALUES WOULD BE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER. FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN
KEEPING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE AND ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO
REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORM. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 105 FROM WEST TO EAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING A DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DAILY RECORDS FOR SATURDAY (JUL 21)...
GOODLAND.....105 (2005)
HILL CITY....110 (1934)
BURLINGTON...103 (2005)
MCCOOK.......105 (2005)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........106

DAILY RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (JUL 22)...
GOODLAND.....105 (1934)
HILL CITY....108 (1934)
BURLINGTON...104 (1990)
MCCOOK.......110 (1931)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-
029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...BULLER
CLIMATE...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

148 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN HARLAN COUNTY AND EXPECT THESE TO
REMAIN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER PER
THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATED NDFD AND ZFP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS THINNED AND LIFTED...CUMULUS FIELD HAS
RAPIDLY TAKEN ITS PLACE. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOWERED AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

12Z SOUNDINGS AT ILN AND OHX SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
THIS IDEA IS CONFIRMED BY LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SUPPORTED BY SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD BEGINS TO LIFT AND MIX OUT. HAVE UPDATED
NDFD TO FURTHER SLOW THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND ALSO TO SLOW THE
TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE 10Z HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TOWARDS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
VA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED ALL SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. THE ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

IT STILL APPEARS THAT STRATOCU AND STRATUS WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO
MIX INTO CU AS DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN ALOFT...BUT NOT SO MUCH AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SFC HIGH TO
OUR NW IS ENE...WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH THIS
IN MIND...CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS ON TARGET AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION ON
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS REACH MIDDLE TN AND EXITED INTO VA.
MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO BUILD
SOUTH TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT A BIT TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT DRY OUT ALL
THAT MUCH DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. THE RIDGE SHOULD
LEAD TO ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING AND A STRONG ENOUGH CAP FOR NOTHING
MORE THAN A CU FIELD IN MOST PLACES LATER TODAY ONCE THE STRATUS AND
STRATOCU LIFTS AND MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CAP WILL BE A BIT WEAKER OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY DAY
WITH MAX T NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS LED TO
MOIST GROUND AND MOIST LOW LEVELS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MAX T NEAR A
COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE...IF NOT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ANY CONVECTION AND CU SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG ON SUN PER MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT MORE NW AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO ROUND THE RIDGE. MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE AIR MASS WILL WARM
AS WELL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING 90 OR EVEN THE LOWER
90S ON SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EXTENDED. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTH AND EAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MODELS DO
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS HOW ALL OF THIS UNFOLDS...SO STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STORMS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED EARLY IN
THE WEEK...AND THEN WILL BECOME MORE A THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL...AS
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE PREVALENT. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND LOWS AROUND 70.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN INTO SW VA. EXTENSIVE AREA
OF LOW STRATUS NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN KY HAS THINNED AND
LIFTED...WITH AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS TAKING ITS PLACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE VA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE LIFTING
CEILINGS. CEILINGS HAVE RISEN WITH MVFR TO VFR PREVAILING AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS AT
VFR ACROSS ALL AREAS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
EXTENSIVE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70. WITH CLOUDS HOLDING DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY IT WILL NOT
TAKE TOO LONG FOR FOG TO BEGIN FORMING TONIGHT ONCE CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1142 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WEAK GRADIENT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE FIRST 6 HRS
OF THE PERIOD...STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN ABOUT 14Z AND 16Z. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX INTO VFR AFTERNOON CU AROUND 18Z. ONCE VFR
DEVELOPS ON SAT...IT SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VALLEY FOG...PERHAPS NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT THE TAF
SITES MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN VALLEYS SUCH AS LOZ AND SME
FIRST AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFT TO THE RIDGETOP AT JKL.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

456 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
NOW THAT LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS,
EXPECT REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO END. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT HUMID. A SLOWING COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EXITED SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

DUE TO THE STILL SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. EXPECT VERTICAL MIXING
TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SOME BY MIDDAY YIELDING A TREND TOWARD SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT, NOCTURNAL COOLING COULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS.

MADE CORRESPONDING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, USING
BLEND OF RECENT GFS LAMP AND HRRR VALUES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY
NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT. THIS YIELDED LOWS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO PROJECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SREF MODEL OUTPUT NEXT SHOWS A COLD FRONT, WITH POTENTIALLY LOWER
DEW POINTS RATHER THAN LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT, WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY BUT THEN SLOW OR EVEN STALL BEFORE
CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF HUMID,
UNSTABLE SURFACE LAYER COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM PREFRONTAL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, BASED ON BLEND
OF RECENT GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND FLATTEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AGAIN WILL
DETERMINE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. HAVE KEPT
CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER FORECASTS BY MAINTAINING A DRY BREAK WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RENEWED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT REMAINING AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON,
AS CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BECOME SCATTERED LATE.

MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IF WINDS BECOMES CALM
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWING COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

656 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE REMNANTS OF A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WERE ORIENTED EAST/WEST ROUGHLY ALONG I-94.
THIS WAS EVIDENT BY THE SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND
FIELD...AS WELL AS A SUBTLE PRESSURE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...WHILE ALONG THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. FURTHER UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE ND/MN
BORDER...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME EARLY AFTERNOON CUMULUS. ALOFT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE LEFT
OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. THIS BENIGN CIRCULATION MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF MN INTO THE WESTERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO INTRODUCED SOME 20POPS. FURTHER
NORTH...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING THE MINNESOTA
PANHANDLE...WITH SOME DEEPER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE CLOSER
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE
WITH THIS FEATURE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE PARENT CYCLONE TRACKS INTO ONTARIO...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP WITHOUT ANY
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ALSO...H925-H850 WINDS ARE NORTHWESTERLY...SO
THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN NOT BE COUNTED ON TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE
NEXT ROUND OF MONSOON-INDUCED/LEE SIDE ENHANCED SHORTWAVES FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDWEST UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION INDICATIVE
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO TRIMMED BACK
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN MON NIGHT...SETTLING OVER NRN IA AND SRN WI THRU WED.
A LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT OF SD/IA/MN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN...ALLOWING
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FRONT AS A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
GOMEX TO REACH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.
THIS COMBINATION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN STARTING MON NIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH WED. THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVERBLOWN WITH
PRECIP...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK /BECAUSE
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD WHAT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND WEAK CAPPING/... BUT GENERALLY MODELS AGREE
ON PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WFO MPX
COVERAGE AREA...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTAIN DECENT QPF FOR MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HAVE NUDGED UP THE POPS INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS AND RELATED
INSTABILITY...WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 80-90
DEGREE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...MEANING
THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90-100 DEGREE RANGE.
IF THE FRONT WOBBLES N THAN PROJECTED...THESE TEMP/DEWPT VALUES
COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RESULTING IN HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
REGARDLESS... THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INDICES THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE ON THU...BEING USHERED ALONG BY A COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TWD THE GREAT
LAKES. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...A CALMER PATTERN WILL
PRESENT ITSELF OVER THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LINGER INTO FRI BUT THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO START
OUT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER BEHIND THE THU FRONT DUE
TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND NLY SFC FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE
LOW-MID 60S.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN CONCERN IS LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM NERN SD INTO NERN
MN. LINE IS SAGGING SOUTHEAST. QUESTION HAD BEEN WHETHER LOBE OF
SHORT WAVE WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER
SOUTH... AND THEY HAVE... AT LEAST INTO NERN SD. 18Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL MN. HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO KAXN AND KSTC. THERE IS
ESSENTIALLY NO LOW LEVEL JET TO HELP KEEP THEM GOING THOUGH.
COULD STILL BE A STRAY STORM BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO SOUTHERN MN
OR TO KEAU DUE TO INSTABILITY.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS A BIT OF FOG. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FRONT WASHES OUT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE CENTRAL
MN WHERE ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL HELP FOG FORMATION. HAVE BROUGHT
KSTC DOWN TO IFR IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. KRNH AND KEAU MAY ALSO SEE
SOME IFR BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM WITH MVFR VSBY.

KMSP...AT THIS TIME THINK STORMS AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF KMSP. THE NAM INDICATES A WEAK SHORT WAVE DRIVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW NOT SURE THAT IT IS CORRECT
SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF KMSP. BEARS WATCHING THOUGH. IF
THUNDER DOES DEVELOP... IT WOULD BE IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK/
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$
JPC/TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

651 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTERACTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS.
AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE REMAINS TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES FOR
PIN-POINTING WHERE AND WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OTHER THAN THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...WHICH ENDS BY NOON.

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY
VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS SW MN...AND SOME INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL
JET MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
DUE TO REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS WHICH
BASICALLY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
BY 12Z. LATER TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE SD MAY
FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW AND SC MN.

THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...IS PROGGED TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF
THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THESE TWO
FEATURES MAINTAIN THE WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH SUBTLE SHRTWV/S INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR
REGION. BASED ON THE MEAN FLOW...THIS FRONT MAY SET UP JUST SOUTH
OF THE MN/IA BORDER WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS OUR FA IN TERMS OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE RELATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. ONCE THIS UPPER LOW
TRANSLATES TO THE EAST...A MORE NW FLOW IS LIKELY WHICH MEANS
COOLER TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND. ..JLT..

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

AS USUAL...LLJ UNDER THE COVER OF DARKNESS IN JULY HAS RESULTED IN
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
IMPACT AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING. RAP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING
THE LLJ AFTER 15Z. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE LEFT MUCH PAST THAT TIME...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. AFTER THAT...WEAK BOUNDARY NOW
SLIPPING THROUGH AXN/STC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP DOWN AROUND I-90
BY THIS EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION IN THE MPX CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BEING OVER ERN
WI...CLOSER TO SOME STRONGER 850 MB FLOW. TONIGHT...THE LLJ WILL
RETURN AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE COMING UP OUT OF ERN NEB AND INTO SW MN BY 06Z. THIS WILL
BE RUNNING UP OVER THE BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SW MN TONIGHT...THAT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN MN DURING THE NIGHT...AS INDICATED BY SREF PRECIP
PROBS. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...COULD HAVE PROBABLY
GOTTEN AWAY WITH A VRB03KT WIND GROUP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
TODAY...BUT TRIED TO INDICATE SOME WIND DIRECTION WHERE AGREEMENT
IN DIRECTION COULD BE FOUND BETWEEN THE LAV...NAM...AND RAP.

KMSP...WEAK LLJ OVERHEAD NOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z...
WHICH WILL PUT A RATHER ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. DO
NOT THINK E-W ORIENTED LINE ACROSS THE NORTH METRO WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE FIELD THIS MORNING...AS IT IS TIED TO THE NORTH END OF
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT GRADIENT OF THE LLJ...WHICH THE RAP DOES
NOT BRING AS FAR SOUTH AS MSP BEFORE NEARLY DOING AWAY WITH THE
LLJ. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THIS LINE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE TEMPO TSRA GROUP. FOR
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR SEEING CONVECTION IN SW
MN...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER FOR SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING COMING OUT OF SW MN AND APPROACHING
THE FIELD BY 12Z SUN MORNING.

//OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JLT/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE S DAKOTA/NEB
BORDER...BUT WILL WAIT TILL DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT TO KVTN BEFORE ADDING IT. BASES SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH...HOWEVER VERY GUSTY WINDS /40+ KTS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

UPDATE...

MORNING SOUNDING AT KLBF SUGGESTED 106 FOR A MAX TEMP. MEANWHILE
THE SUPER ENSEMBLE INDICATES 105. THE MAX TEMP GRID WAS GIVEN A 1
TO 3 DEGREE BUMP. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATED 109F AT KONL. THE
HEAT LOW AND ATTENDENT COLD FRONT APPEARS IT MAY SAG THROUGH
SHERIDAN COUNTY COOLING THAT AREA TO AROUND 100.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
EVENING HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 500MB LEVEL REVEALS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
ENGULF MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48. THERE ARE TWO TROUGHS SOMEWHAT
BOOKENDING THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...THE FIRST OFF TO OUR WEST OVER THE
PAC NW...AND THE SECOND REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
APPALACHIANS. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT
REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAK
BORDER AT THIS HOUR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO AND BESIDES A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /FROM MCV ACROSS S DAK/ EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
CHERRY COUNTY...THE REGION LARGELY REMAINS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 06Z ARE WARM...WITH UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S BEING THE NORM.

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...TODAY AND SUNDAY. ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FIRE RISKS HEADLINE THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING FOR THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FIRST THE EXPECTED ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. MID/UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30C ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE FORECAST EMPLOYED A BLEND OF
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE /NAM MOS/ WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
SUGGESTS THE WARMEST READINGS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...NO REVISIONS ARE NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS TO PROMOTE THE THREAT OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WITHIN
ANY FIRE START. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN LOWERING TD/S BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS
TO BUILD EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING ALLOWS FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES...BUT UNDERESTIMATED GUSTS ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED NAM MOS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. WE HAVE TWO LARGE FIRES GOING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAND HILLS/NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEY...FELT IT WAS
BEST TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT KNOWING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA IS
SMALL. MORE THAN LIKELY...LOCALIZED RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE
MET...BUT GIVEN THE RECORD DROUGHT...DON/T WANT TO MESS AROUND.
WILL ISSUE A RFW FOR ALL FIRE ZONES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONTO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK PERTURBATION TOPS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LIMITING THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST. IF ANY STORMS ARE TO DEVELOP...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PAST MONTH...STORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
TYPICAL INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE. STRONG ERRATIC GUSTY WIND
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. DRY
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE OF A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 204...206 AND 208.

EXTENDED...BEYOND SUNDAY. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK AS THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND POSSIBLY FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE MIDWEEK. GENERALLY FAVORED THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED...WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT LEAVE THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL
BETTER CERTAINTY IS DISPLAYED BY THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
024>029-036>038-057>059-069>071-094.

AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

720 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. ELSEWHERE VFR IS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. ELSEWHERE VFR IS EXPECTED.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
024>029-036>038-057>059-069>071-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

550 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM TO INLAND LOCATIONS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE MONDAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM...SKIES ARE LARGELY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS
TO A COMBINATION OF STABILIZING LAKE BREEZES AND FLATTENING/THINNING
DIURNAL CU. JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS LINGERS NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER IN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND EVEN THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH CONTINUED MIXING.

THIS EVENING...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER LAKES.
A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS SHOW BARELY MEASURABLE QPF WITH
THIS...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE FORECAST WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/UPPER LAKES AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THE CLOSEST OF WHICH IS NOW FALLING
APART AS IT WORKS INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HRRR BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT CONSIDERING THAT IT WAS OVERDONE THIS
AFTERNOON /WHEN IT ALSO TRIED TO DEVELOP SHOWERS/ WILL ONLY CARRY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

EVEN IF THIS FEATURE DOES NOT BRING SHOWERS...IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY
THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH A SSW FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES...AND IN THE UPPER 50
TO LOWER 60S INLAND. IT ALSO WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...THOUGH ANY PROLONGED CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

WHILE NO DISTINCT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON SUNDAY...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE...ENHANCING LAKE BREEZES NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE NAM/GFS
ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE RGEM...WITH BOTH THE
UKMET/EUROPEAN SHOWING LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH A STRONG LAKE-BREEZE LIKELY TO BE IN
PLACE...IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER NORTHWARD...WITH THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MODEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE GENERALLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG LEVEL. WHILE THE LACK OF
STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF STORMS...THE LAKE
BREEZE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY BRISK LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH
BUFFALO LIKELY TO GUST TO 25 MPH OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN BUFFALO METRO TO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S...WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY IN MORE INTERIOR SECTIONS WHICH
ARE LESS INFLUENCED BY A SW FLOW.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY NEARING SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FAIRLY COMPACT FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
THE FEATURE TO ITS NORTH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE. THAT...TOGETHER WITH THE WARM
LAKES...MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION IN THE WEE HOURS OF
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. SUCH NOCTURNAL
EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO FORECAST AND RARELY HANDLED WELL BY
MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN TOWARD SREF AND CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.

INSTABILITY ONLY INCREASES ON MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ONGOING OR
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION/LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE IN UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...SREF DATA HAS BEEN HINTING AT A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER SCENARIO WITH AMPLE 40KT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK /SEE TEXT AREA/
AND AGREE THERE IS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL ONLY DISCUSS THIS
AS A LOW PROB SCENARIO HERE AND NOT UPDATE THE HWO UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE IS SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION AND BEST SHEAR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR REGION UNTIL PAST
PEAK HEATING...ARRIVING TOWARD MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE BY AFTERNOON...LESS SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TYPE OF WIND
CAN PLAY HAVOC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR HINDERING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS
IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE TIMING...PROBABILITY AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF
OCCURRENCE...AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING CONVECTION BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATER TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL SITUATED UPSTREAM...BUT A DRYING
AIRMASS ALOFT SUGGESTS KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS
LIKE A LOCK WITH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HOWEVER POSE A PROBLEM. THE LATEST GFS ONCE
AGAIN SPORTS A DEEPENING LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...SOMETHING SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO ALTHOUGH
SLOWER...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION. WITH
SUCH UNCERTAINTY A WEEK OUT...WILL FORECAST CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD
AND THEREFORE MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
IS NO POINT IN TRYING TO PIN DOWN FEATURES WHICH ARE IN MODEL
FANTASY LAND AND NOT TRACKABLE.

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT THESE ARE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT AND IN THE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT JHW SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR AS THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE REACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...MID CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. AS LONG AS
THESE REMAIN THICK ENOUGH...THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. BUT IF A PROLONGED CLEARING DOES OCCUR AT JHW...THEN THERE
PROBABLY BE SOME FOG AS WELL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE...AND SHOWERS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW GAINS INFLUENCE OVER LINGER LAKE BREEZE AFFECTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LAKES SUNDAY...BUT FLOW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH WINDS MAY BUILD WAVES ON
LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

337 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A BRIEF CLEARING
TREND AS LAKE BREEZES PROGRESS INLAND...WHICH WILL EXPAND THE LAKE
SHADOW OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...AN INVERSION SHOWN BY
THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN PLACE AT AROUND 800
MB...PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING.

THIS EVENING...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER LAKES.
A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS SHOW MEAGER (BARELY MEASURABLE) QPF
WITH THIS...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE
FORECAST WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. THE HRRR
BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT CONSIDERING THE HRRR WAS OVERDONE THIS AFTERNOON (WHEN
IT ALSO TRIED TO DEVELOP SHOWERS) WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

EVEN IF THIS FEATURE DOES NOT BRING SHOWER...IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY
THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH A SSW FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES...AND IN THE UPPER 50
TO LOWER 60S INLAND. IT ALSO WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...THOUGH ANY PROLONGED CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS
LIKE A LOCK WITH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT THESE ARE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT AND IN THE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT JHW SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR AS THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE REACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE...AND SHOWERS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

140 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM INLAND FROM THE LAKES. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE IN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING...DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE MID
70S. MEANWHILE...LOWER CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHADOWING ON THE LAKES SHOULD EXPAND INLAND A
BIT AS THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...AND BASED ON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...UPDATE SCALES BACK
HIGHS A BIT TODAY...MAINLY IN AREAS OF MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE LOWER 80S JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WHILE THE INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN
THAT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP...IT APPEARS THAT A STRONG INVERSION
AT 800 MB SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WHILE THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE BREEZE...EXPECT THIS IS OVERDONE...WITH ANY SHOWER TO BE VERY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. MEANWHILE A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A BATCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. CONSIDERED
ADDING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SCATTERED SPRINKLES WITH
THIS PERIOD OF LIFT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM WILL OPT TO LEAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE BURGEONING SSW RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND. MAY SEE A LITTLE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...NO WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY.

ON SUNDAY...A DYING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DECENT SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INPUT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE LOW...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCED A BIT ALONG POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS LATE IN THE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT...AND MORE POTENT...COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS DOES HINT
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP EAST OF OUR
CWA. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MAY FOCUS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MISS MOST OF OUR AREA. IN THIS CASE...WE
MAY HAVE TO RELY MOSTLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO FORCE
CONVECTION. TIME WILL TELL.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOUT 20C. THIS WOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PUT A LID
ON THE TEMPERATURE RISES...HOWEVER.

WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MAY SET OFF A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

EXPECT COOLER AND COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THERE WILL BE TWO FEATURES THAT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FIRST
FEATURE IS A NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. GREATEST
CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MAY
BRUSH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE FRONT MAY BE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL CREST THE PLAINS RIDGE MID WEEK...AND NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHICH IS WHERE CONVECTION
IS THE LIKELIEST. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE MOST ACTIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL WITH AREAS
UNDER CLOUDS POSSIBLY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE. WARMING ALOFT THROUGH
THE WEEK WILL LIKELY PUSH THE CWA BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. OVER
NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WITH THE COOLEST
AREAS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. NEAR THE LAKE SHORES...WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S...OVERNIGHT LOWS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT THESE ARE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT AND IN THE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT JHW SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR AS THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE REACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE...AND SHOWERS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. LOCAL LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...BUT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1216 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT COOLER AND COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE 3000 FT...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. THE EXCEPTION IS JWH...WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...WITH MVFR CIGS EVENTUALLY RISING TO VFR.

AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVING AROUND EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. THE MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG
HILL WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
JUST SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BENEATH 800MB...WITH CUMULUS LIKELY TO INITIATE WHEN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES MAY EVEN GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN SPOTS.
SOME AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO THE SUN LONGER THAN OTHERS...WITH STABLE
LAKE SHADOWS CLEARING OUT THE CUMULUS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. RUC/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS MOISTURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...SO
FORECAST IS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THERE AS WELL.

WHILE THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FEEL THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE STRONG CAP AT 800 MB SHOWN IN THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY TO BE DRY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MID SUMMER AVERAGES WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN AND LAKESHORES.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT COOLER AND COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE 3000 FT...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. THE EXCEPTION IS JWH...WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...WITH MVFR CIGS EVENTUALLY RISING TO VFR.

AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1122 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. AFTER ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY
TODAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AND SOUTHWARD TREND TO
ALL THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES. CIG HAS LIFTED LOCALLY AND TO THE
EAST. WRN COS HAVE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP
THEM GET BRIGHTER AS WELL. THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE
DETAILS LATELY...LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IT/S FORECASTS.
WILL HOLD TIGHT TO THE LATEST VERSION THAT CONTINUES THE FORECAST
AS WE HAVE IT PAINTED ALREADY. BREAKS AND WIDESPREAD THINNING TO
THE CLOUDS IN THE NERN HALF OF THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE DRYING
IS ADVANCING SWWRD. WHILE THIS DRYING MAY NOT CONTINUE AT THE
CURRENT PACE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GET BETTER. STREETS OF
DIURNAL/CONVECTIVE CU IN THE NRN TIER AND OVER ALL OF WRN NY AT
THIS TIME COULD GROW TALL ENOUGH TO MAKE ISOLD SHRA/SPRINKLES THIS
AFTN.

WE WILL RECOVER QUITE BETTER THAN WE DID YESTERDAY...WHEN VERY FEW
PLACES GOT TO 70F. ONE MESO OB FROM LAPORTE SULLIVAN CO IS ALREADY
73F...AND IPT IS 70F. TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 OR A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE NERN AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN IS LIKELY. BUT WE
SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY OVER ALL THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SE AS A
SERIES OF FLAT WAVES ALOFT RIPPLE DOWN IN THE NW FLOW. WE BEGIN TO
WARM ADVECT WHICH HELPS ERODE STABILITY AND WARRANTS THE MENTION
OF A SHOWER OR STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW SREF POPS
ARE VERY HIGH...CATEGORICAL WHILE THE GMOS POPS SEEM MORE
REASONABLE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE.

WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING HELPING SUPPORT
OUR HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US OUT
TO THE ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW FEEDING DOWN INTO THE NERN US. AT
THE ONSET THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF WAVES
RIPPLING DOWN GIVING US CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DAILY THRU
AT LEAST TUES WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH AGREED ON TO SLIDE
THROUGH AND PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY DRYING.

FROM THERE THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS DRIES
US OUT WED THRU EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE GEFS ISN`T AS AGGRESSIVE
IN DRIVING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO
THE GEFS...WITH A MORE WNW FLOW ALOFT WHICH KEEPS US CLOSER TO THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE RING OF FIRE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. IN FACT THE ECMWF HAS IT WET TO VERY WET HERE
THURS THRU SATURDAY. SO CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY FADES
QUICKLY...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AS NOTED IN THE VAD WINDS FROM THE CCX
RADAR AND IN THE SFC OBS. WINDS ARE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NO NEED FOR
MENTIONS OF LLWS. MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NE
ATTM. HEATING AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
AND VSBY COULD COME QUICKLY TO MOST LOCATIONS...ESP THE SOUTH. IT
IS ALREADY VFR AT KIPT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE SRN TIER
BUT WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE WEST.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

927 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWERS SLIDING EAST AND A LITTLE SOUTH
ALONG THE JST-AOO-MDT CORRIDOR. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE HEADING WNW.
PATCHY DZ STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT CIGS ARE LIFTING NICELY OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. EVEN THE SHRA IN THE SOUTH ARE
MOVING SOUTHWARD. RUC AND HRRR TAKE THESE SHOWERS OFF TO THE
SOUTH...LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL DO SO. LARGE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALREADY EVIDENT IN SAT PICS OVER THE NRN
TIER. UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS...THERE ARE ALREADY STREETS OF
DIURNAL/CONVECTIVE CU IN TIOGA CO. WILL JUST MENTION AN ISOLD SHRA
IN THE NRN MTS FOR THE AFTN WITH THE DIURNAL CU ALREADY POPPING.

WE WILL RECOVER QUITE BETTER THAN WE DID YESTERDAY...WHEN VERY FEW
PLACES GOT TO 70F. TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 OR A LITTLE BETTER
IN THE NERN AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN IS LIKELY. BUT WE SHOULD
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING HELPING SUPPORT
OUR HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AS NOTED IN THE VAD WINDS FROM THE CCX
RADAR AND IN THE SFC OBS. WINDS ARE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NO NEED FOR
MENTIONS OF LLWS. MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NE
ATTM. HEATING AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
AND VSBY COULD COME QUICKLY TO MOST LOCATIONS...ESP THE SOUTH. IT
IS ALREADY VFR AT KIPT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE SRN TIER
BUT WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTN/EVENING.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

913 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTIONING OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EASTERN COUNTIES. ALSO...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PER 00Z 500 MB SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. ALL...WRF 3KM/NAM12
AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST DRYING CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR TONIGHT AND THEREFORE...SHOWED SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS OR LESS
FOR THIS PERIOD. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
SCT CIRRUS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED THRU 09Z. SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS AT 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT IS EXPECTED VCNTY OF KAUS
TO KSAT FROM 09Z TO 14Z...WHILE FURTHER WEST SCT CIRRUS ABOVE
25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2 TO 3 THSD FT IS POSSIBLE VCNTY OF KDRT FROM 13Z TO 15Z.
AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY SCT CUMULUS AT 4 THSD TO 8 THSD FT IS
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SCT ABOVE 25 THSD FT.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON MONDAY. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME S AND SE AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND S TO SE AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY. SCT CIRRUS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z...BECOMING CIGS 1 THSD TO
2 THSD BKN VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AFTER 08Z MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH 2 THSD SCT VCNTY OF KDRT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR FEATURE IS DRIFTING WEST FROM
CENTRAL TX INTO WEST CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING ABOUT THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WITH GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL DUE TO TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FEATURE IS LOOSELY CONNECTED WITH ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE NW GULF INTO THE TX/LA BORDER WHERE CYCLONIC
SHEAR IS MORE EVIDENT IN THE MID LEVELS. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
OVER THE GULF SHOULD WORK NW INTO THE COASTAL PRAIRIES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE THIS COULD SIGNAL GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL STABILITY IS
ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THIS REGION AS THE BROADER UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TILTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A BROAD
BRUSH OF SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY EVENING AND CONCENTRATE THE SLIGHT
CHC POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FOR TUESDAY.

THE PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MORE SWLY CONTINENTAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE HOTTER AND DRIER
ECMWF PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR LATE IN THE WEAK AS MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH HAS BROUGHT HEAT AND DROUGHT
TO THE CENTRAL US...IS ABOUT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO N TX.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 96 74 97 75 / - 20 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 72 96 73 / - 20 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 72 94 72 / - 10 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 74 95 74 / - 10 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 77 99 78 / - - 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 95 74 / - 20 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 97 73 97 73 / - 10 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 73 / - 20 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 92 74 92 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 95 76 95 76 / - 10 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 74 96 75 / - 10 20 20 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

444 PM PDT Sun Jul 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level low will cross the region tonight through
Monday night and result in a chance of thunderstorms for mountain
locations. A few strong storms are possible in the Idaho panhandle
this evening. After the low exits Tuesday, expect a return to dry
and seasonably warm weather for the rest of the week.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday: The deep upper level low pressure system is
slowly pushing its way into the Pac NW this afternoon. Water vapor
imagery shows the tightly wound center of the low just southwest
of Vancouver Island with a leading upper level front pushing into
the Cascades. A -24 Celsius cold pool at 500 mbs will accompany
this system as it moves into the Northern Cascades just south of
the Canadian border. This is a fairly anomalous cold pool for mid
July as it is between 2-3 standard deviations colder than what is
average for is time of year and for this region. Models are all in
good agreement moving the center of the low from west to east,
generally right along the Canadian Border. As this system moves
along, we are expecting showers and possibly some thunderstorms to
develop in association with the upper level cold pool in the
northern mountains.

This low is situated at the base of a trough, which is expected to
deepen a bit through this evening. As the trough deepens, we will
see the atmospheric flow pattern become slightly more southerly.
This will allow some monsoonal moisture to ride up northward into
extreme eastern WA and into the Idaho Panhandle. The monsoonal
moisture is reflective of the expansive area of surface convection
and thunderstorms blossoming over southern and central Idaho.
Models have been consistent in showing elevated convection late
this evening into tonight from the northeast Blue Mountains into
the Northern Panhandle and points southeastward. The RUC model
shows increasing 700-850 mb Theta E temperatures across this area,
which is indicative of destabilization of the atmosphere at mid
and upper levels. Dew point temperatures have been falling across
the basin through the afternoon, indicating drier more stable air.
Places like Pullman, Lewiston, Coeur d`Alene and Bonners Ferry
have held on to higher dew points in the low to mid 50s, compared
to dew points in the 40s for places like Moses Lake and Spokane.
This makes me more confident that any convection tonight across
the southeast will not make it much further westward than the
Spokane Area.

Winds will pick up tonight with the passage of the cold front.
Expect these winds to pick up in the Wenatchee Area first in the
early evening hours and then spread eastward into the basin
tonight. winds will be sustained at around 15 to 25 mph with gusts
as high as 25 to 35 mph. Wenatchee could be even slightly more
windy with strong cold air advection through the Cascade gaps this
evening. High temperatures tomorrow will be well below average
with highs expected to be in the 70s for most valley locations.
The northern valleys will have a hard time breaking 70 due to
cloud cover and precipitation. /SVH

Monday night through Wednesday...The next closed upper level low
will slowly track northeast-east and in to Alberta Monday night.
Behind the exiting low the flow will turn northwest. The 00z and
now the 12z models runs are now picking up on another much weaker
low pressure system forming just of Vancouver Island Tuesday, then
deepening as it moves into northwest Washington Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This is a little bit different solution than what we
saw yesterday.

Monday night and Tuesday. As the low kicks out of the region
Monday night moisture will wrap around the low. There isn`t much
in the way of dynamical lift left, save for some orographics. But
there will be some lingering instability and this will support
isolated showers across the northern mountains through the night.
There will be enough instability across north Idaho for an
outside chance of a thunderstorm through the evening hours.
Showers will be on the decrease through the night and Tuesday
morning. Both surface based and ML cape increase through the day
again Tuesday. And while the cape is capped there will be an
opportunity for showers across the northern tier of zones late in
the afternoon. 850 temps increase to 17-18C and with mostly sunny
skies temperatures should show a rebound over the cooler
temperatures from Monday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the low off Vancouver island begins to
deepen as it moves off the coast. This will swing the upper level
flow back around to the southwest and allow some Pacific moisture
back into the northern mountains. Surface based cape increases to
around 500 J/kg, LI`s -1 to -2 and 700-500 theta e lapse rates
decrease across the north cascades and northern mountains. So
instability is only marginal and there is no decent forcing
mechanism. The models are picking up on a few little waves in the
southwest flow, but these look to be pretty weak. Still, there
will be a chance of surfaced based convection and isolated showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms in the late afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to increase and should be near normal
by Wednesday. /Tobin

Wednesday night through Sunday: A long-wave trough migrates to
the B.C. coast and keeps the Inland Northwest under a dirty ridge,
as weak shortwaves slip in on the southwest flow. This will bring
occasional clouds to the CWA, a lingering threat of mainly
mountains showers and thunderstorms, and warmer temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to warm to average and slightly above
through the period. Guidance shows 850mb temperatures peaking
Thursday and Friday, with a slight cooling trend next weekend
behind the one shortwave, and surface temperatures are forecast to
follow this same trend.

One shortwave, which was coming across the southern Gulf of
Alaska Sunday evening, arrives at the Pacific Northwest coast
Wednesday evening. As the aforementioned long-wave trough migrates
toward the B.C. coast through the end of the work week, the
shortwave is drawn across the CWA. Per the PWAT projections,
moisture pools near the Canadian border and Cascades Wednesday
night through Friday and increases across the southeast CWA
Thursday afternoon and Friday. PWATs rise to between 110-130% of
normal. Models also indicate some low-grade instability. SBCAPE
values between 100-400 J/kg are indicated across the northern
third of the CWA Wednesday evening and again Thursday afternoon
and evening. The passing impulse and upslope flow will help bring
the shower and thunderstorm threat to these areas. Similar SBCAPE
values come into the southeast CWA Thursday afternoon and evening,
from the Blues to Central Panhandle Mountains and will lead to
some shower and thunderstorm threat here too.

By Friday the best moisture and instability retreats into the far
southeast CWA and against the northern Cascades. This leaves the
primary shower potential across northwest Okanogan county, the
Blues, southeast Shoshone county and the Camas Prairie. Guidance
currently indicates CIN values between 100-200 J/kg from the Blues
through the Camas Prairie and southwest Shoshone county, which
would likely inhibit the convection. However there is potential
for showers to develop south of here, where the CIN is weak, and
advect into these areas before falling apart.

Additionally low-end breezy conditions are expected with the
passing wave, especially Friday. At this time, however, relative
humidities and sustained wind speeds are not expected to result in
red flag conditions.

By Saturday the region is under drier, more stable air, lending
to a dry forecast. Then by Sunday another potential shortwave
impulse and injection of monsoonal moisture will return a threat
of showers to the mountains, particularly the far southeast.
Models are not in good agreement with the track and timing of this
potential shortwave, so PoPs are decidedly low. /J. Cote`

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: A low pressure system will push through a cold front
through this evening. This will result in increasing westerly winds,
beginning with KEAT and reaching some of the eastern TAFs toward
02Z. Gusts to 25-35kts are possible. There is some potential for
LLWS after dark into the overnight, but mixing with the passing
front could keep this to a minimum. Some thunderstorms will be
possible near the ID/WA border and throughout the northeast
mountains and Panhandle. The best chances around TAF sites will be
near KCOE/KPUW/KLWS, with smaller chances near KGEG/KSFF, between
01-09Z. The primary threat of thunderstorms retreats in the high
terrain Monday, but look for some breezy conditions to continue
around TAF sites with gusts near 25kts in the afternoon, especially
around the more unsheltered TAF sites. /J. Cote`

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 72 54 81 57 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 55 71 52 80 53 83 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 49 73 47 79 50 84 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 60 83 56 89 59 92 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 56 75 52 83 55 86 / 20 30 10 10 10 20
Sandpoint 54 71 49 80 51 83 / 40 30 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 56 69 49 77 53 82 / 40 10 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 55 79 54 86 57 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 58 80 57 86 61 90 / 10 0 0 0 10 0
Omak 56 77 52 86 57 89 / 30 20 10 10 10 20

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

620 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH MID WEEK IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS A LARGE...YET
FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAS BEEN WITH ANY
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT HAVE DROPPED DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS MORNINGS SHORT WAVE HAS
PROPAGATED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING
EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MORE POTENT MID LEVEL LOW
HAS LED TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH ONE SURFACE
LOW/LEFT OVER MCV OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND A DEEPER LOW NORTH
OF WINNIPEG.

THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST OUT OF THE MCV LOW TOWARD
EAU CLAIRE AND HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER STILL OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS NOTED
FROM THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY JUMPED
INTO THE 90S...THE CONCERN IS THAT SOME SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL
BE IGNITED AS THE MCV MOVES IN AND BRINGS SOME STRONG WINDS ALONG
WITH IT. THIS AFTERNOON/S HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HITTING WESTERN
WISCONSIN HARDER WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PAN OUT...THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO CARRY SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
THE EVENING.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOMORROW AND
BECOMES STATIONARY IN NORTHERN IOWA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A KICKER TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG IT
TOMORROW DESPITE HIGH LFC/S AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WITH INCREASING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONTAL
ZONE...ADDED SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND INCREASED THE EVENING CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY LIKELY...BUT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH IT AND
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING LEADING TO DRYING DEW POINTS...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL WARM UP MUCH BEYOND 100 DEGREES.
THE MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS MAY BE THE EXCEPTION
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE FRONT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS
STRONG AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY HIGH THAT SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL COME AS THIS
PATTERN SETS UP...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND NOSES UP INTO THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH UNSTABLE AIR
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...PARTICULARLY IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP ACROSS THE AREA IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NOT TO THE SOUTH AS FORECAST. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH AND
BRINGS A LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GET A KICK TO THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE LOW THAT COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND SHOULD BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE +15C AREA.

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
BUT ALREADY IN THE SUBSIDENCE AREA BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH...PERHAPS POOLING ALONG HINTS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
THE REGION SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME IMPACT ON
VISIBILITY LATE BUT BULK OF AREA WILL REMAIN VFR. NEXT SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE FEATURE COULD REDEVELOP CONVECTION HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING
BUT TIMING FAVORS AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 24.00Z SO HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
ANY RAIN THREAT INTO TAFS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

THE FIRST CONCERN IS WHAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY NORTHWEST OF THE
CITIES WILL DO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT FOR HOW LONG IS THE QUESTION. THE
21.04Z HRRR SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY MAY KEEP GROWING IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LONG AND
NORTH OF I94. MEANWHILE...THE 21.00Z HI-RES ARW TAKES IT ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG I35 TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. WHILE AT FIRST
GLANCE THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE...THE BEST CAPE DOES RESIDE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO 3000 J/KG OF MU CAPE AND
THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS ALSO TOWARD THIS HIGHER CAPE
AREA. THE LOCAL 21.10Z LAPS MODEL WOULD SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE
THE OTHER SHORT TERM MESO MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW...HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TO COVER THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND ARXLAPS OUTPUT AND WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
DOING A GOOD JOB LATELY WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BE THE ONLY WAVE IN THE FLOW FOR TODAY. THIS
WOULD LEAVE JUST THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY FORCE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1 TO 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 315K SURFACE AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECTED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE.
THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE LESS THAN 4
PVU/S AND WITH WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...HELD THE RAIN CHANCES AT
20 FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH JUST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AS THE ONLY FORCING FEATURES...MAINTAINED THE
LOW 20 PERCENT CHANCES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO ALLOW THE
HEAT TO BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE 21.00Z ECMWF
SUGGEST 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30-32C RANGE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90 MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 100
EXPECTED. THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT CURRENT TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM. WITH THE
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE ECMWF
IS ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME
RAIN WHICH COULD HOLD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
WET. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE INCREASES.
THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECT TO
MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF THE BORDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ONCE THE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1244 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT GAVE MUCH OF THE AREA -SHRA/ISOLD T
THIS MORNING NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN/NORTHEAST IA. BACK
EDGE OF -SHRA ACTIVITY ASSOICIATED WITH THIS WAVE ALMOST CLEAR OF
THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST BY 2 PM. ATTENTION
THEN SHIFTS TOWARD ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SHRA/TS ACROSS SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS
SIGNAL IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO CARRY STRAIGHT-OUT 6SM -SHRA AFTER 06Z AT KRST AND AT KLSE
AFTER 08Z. NOT CONFIDENT AS TO THUNDER THREAT AS MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS OUT ACROSS SD/SOUTHWEST MN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A WATCH ON INTENSITY OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SD/SOUTHWEST MN AND
MAY HAVE TO ADD THUNDER IF WARRANTED. LOOKS LIKE SHRA SHOULD HANG
ON THROUGH 18Z...THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

650 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
650 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH LATE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THEY WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT
UNCLEAR. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AND BKN CB AT BOTH KRST KLSE THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE 12Z...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
1129 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TOPPING UPPER RIDGE IS GRADUALLY PUSHING COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS BUT CONVERGENCE IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES TO TIME ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES. EARLIER STORMS
ALONG BOUNDARY CLOSER TO KDLH ARE NOW WEAKENING AGAIN WHILE STORMS
FORMING CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW OVER DAKOTAS. STILL UNSURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WITH SUCH WEAK CONVERGENCE BUT GIVEN SOME
SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE INCLUDING MESOSCALE MODELS...HAVE PUSHED AHEAD
SMALL SHOWER RISK TO LATER THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
THIS ISSUANCE.

ON A SIDE NOTE...SURFACE FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT
AND HENCE WHERE GRADIENT IS WEAKEST /WISCONSIN SIDE/ COULD SEE
POCKETS OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY AND CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...A LINE OF CONVECTION (MAINLY SHOWERS) WAS MOVING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS...NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN GREENS.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO THE
CATSKILLS. THE 00Z NAM EXPANDS THIS REGION INTO AN AREA PRODUCING
OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
POINTS EASTWARD. WHILE WE BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE...THIS CONVECTION
COULD BE PUTTING LOCALIZED CORES OF HALF AN INCH OR MORE. SO
FAR...NOTHING SEVERE OR EVEN "STRONG".

THESE AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE THE RESULT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (WITH MORE OF THESE EXPECTED LATER
ON MONDAY) AND PERHAPS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. THE 00Z ALY RAOB
INDICATED A CAP AROUND 20,000 SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO
BECOME SEVERE.

THE HRRR HAS NOT DONE A GOOD JOB REPRESENTING THIS CONVECTION.

WE BELIEVE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CATSKILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDERGOING
WEAK ASCENT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NIGHT. WITH
THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND...TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT...WITH 65-70
EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AND 60-65
ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT BEGIN TO APPROACH THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT BEFORE THE FRONT CAN TRACK INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN GUIDANCE THAT A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH COULD FORM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN OUR REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
PREDICTED TO STEEPEN. AN UPPER JET SEGMENT APPROACHES AND OUR
REGION SHOULD BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET SEGMENT
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS JUST DUE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO
SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY...BUT
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMING AND DECENT MIXING...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S...NEAR 90 WARMER AREAS.

CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED ON THE PROJECTED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ADDED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
WORDING AS SOME STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLEARER WITH NEW DATA AND GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ACTUAL SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE NOT FORECASTED TO TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION UNTIL
TOMORROW. SO...KEEPING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY. SINCE NO REAL COOLING
OR DRYING IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT SULTRY...IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

COLD ADVECTION SPREADS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...SO PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH INCREASING SUN
LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 80S...BUT SOME 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS THOSE AREAS WILL
SEE THE COLD ADVECTION FIRST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD STAY QUITE STRONG THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD PREVENT MANY AREAS FROM GOING CALM TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO LOWS MAY NOT BE A COL AS THEY COULD BE. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES E...OFF EAST COAST. A
DEVELOPING LIGHT S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
55-60 RANGE WITHIN THE HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AND 50-55
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THU-FRI NT...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST. THE 12Z/22 GFS...AND MAJORITY OF GEFS
MEMBERS INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WOULD BE THU INTO THU NT...WITH THE
BEST CHC ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
12Z/22 ECMWF DEPICTS TWO POTENTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/RAIN...THE FIRST
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY...THEN A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR FRI. GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN A RATHER DRY
SPELL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF EITHER OF THESE POTENTIAL
SYSTEMS ACTUALLY PRODUCE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...AS
IT IS POSSIBLE THE BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR THU-FRI...HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE INDICATED BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE
75-80 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS. FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...EXPECT MAINLY 60-65
IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SAT-SUN...BOTH THE 12Z/22 GFS...GEFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
POPS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD SHOWERS BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60-65 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-60 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
WITHIN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT DURING POSSIBILE CONVECTION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...AS OF 0545Z...A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS. THIS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KPOU TAF SITE BETWEEN
07Z AND 11Z AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS TO OCCUR WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT IF THE CORE OF A PARTICULAR TSTM WHERE TO GO
DIRECTLY OVER KPOU...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NO ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION HEADING TOWARDS THE OTHER TAF SITES SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW AND UPDATE IF ANY OTHER CONVECTION POPS UP.
WITH A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NO FOG ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

DURING THE DAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE
PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COULD RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST VCSH IN THE TAFS...WITH A 6 HOUR PROB 30 GROUP FOR
STRONG CONVECTION WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 23/19Z AND 24/01Z...
EXCEPT BETWEEN 23/20Z AND 24/02Z AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IF A STORM HITS ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS TO 30
KTS OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY AND
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

NORMAL RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 MPH MIGHT LIMIT DEW IN SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF FRONTS HEADS OUR WAY. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
ELEVATED...STARTING OUT 75-90 PERCENT AND ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50 TO
60 PERCENT RANGE. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES. IT
IS A PRETTY GOOD BET MANY AREAS WILL RECEIVE AN AVERAGE OF A QUARTER
INCH OR MORE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY
BREEZE...10 TO 20 MPH...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH MOHAWK VALLEY AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PLUNGES SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
RIVER BASIN AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WOULD NOT REALLY TRIGGER A RESPONSE TO OUR
SLUGGISH RIVER LEVELS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS THEN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

136 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...A LINE OF CONVECTION (MAINLY SHOWERS) WAS MOVING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS...NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN GREENS.

THE HRRR HAS NOT DONE A GOOD JOB REPRESENTING THIS CONVECTION.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU/STRATOCU IN VFR
RANGE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE
AT THE TERMINALS FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL PLACE A
VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 07Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER TO PRECLUDE THICKER FOG FORMATION. WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBY AT THESE TWO SITES FOR NOW.

AFTER A QUIET PERIOD MONDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BEGIN PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT
18Z AT ALL TAF SITES TO ADDRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST AT KALB OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KT...WITH
A FEW GUSTS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE POSSIBLE EARLY.
ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH AT KALB...FUNNELING EFFECTS UP
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH
WINDS AT 10-15 KT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT TIMES
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.

NORMAL RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 MPH MIGHT LIMIT DEW IN SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS THEN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

543 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND TRACK INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY INFLUENCES OUR AREA. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AROUND
SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS CONVECTION EARLY ON...AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BATCH EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE...MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. IT APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CIN/NO CIN LINE...AND DRIVEN
MAINLY BY SHORT WAVES IN THE WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THE MAIN
BATCH APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL FOLLOW THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL
THETA E...AND PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS MORE CONVECTIVE BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH...ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK START. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE
SAME LINE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
FORM ON THE DEEPER OUTFLOW...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY GET INTO LEHIGH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING AFTER OUTRUNNING
ITS SUPPORT. THE FRONT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT
IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS...SO A MID LEVEL TRIGGER WILL BE NEEDED TO
GET THE PROCESS ROLLING. THERE APPEAR TO BE A FEW SUCH IMPULSES IN
THE MID LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...SO TIMING COULD END UP BEING
AN ISSUE.

THE 0000 NAM IS A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
CONVECTIVE STARTUP...AND THIS COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
SCHEME BEING USED. LATE MORNING COULD BE A TAD EARLY...AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT YET HAVE BEEN MET. FOR THIS FORECAST...THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND THERE SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
THERE AS WELL (AS LONG AS THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT NOW EXIT ON TIME).
THE MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...
AS WELL AS DCAPE...TO SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDER.

TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON THE ABOVE WITH SOME
WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH...INCREASED SHEAR MAY
INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION...WITH WIND AGAIN BEING
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE INCLUDED HERE DUE TO
THE ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. WHILE HAIL COULD BE A THREAT WITH
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED FOR NOW.

MORE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT INTERFERE TOO MUCH WITH HEATING
THIS MORNING. THE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ALL AREAS TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...SO CUMULUS WILL FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 17 CELSIUS WOULD SUGGEST FULL
SUN HIGHS NEAR 90. WE MAY END UP COMING JUST SHORT OF THIS...AND
HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO THE MOS BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.
THE EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF SOUTH...BUT ACROSS THE NORTH
THE CONVECTION MAY STILL HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR
BOTH OF THE ABOVE.

THE NEXT CONVECTIVE QUESTION COMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION (IN THE FORM OF AN MCS?) POSSIBLY AFFECTING NORTHWEST
AREAS. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA
BY 0900 UTC TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SHOWN BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE 45
KNOTS OF WIND COULD BE AVAILABLE AT 850 MB WITH THE POSSIBLE MCS...
MOIST (AND STABILIZING) LOW LEVELS COULD MITIGATE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY WINDS.

SINCE IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL COULD HAVE...NO ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO
THE FORECAST NOW. PERHAPS THE GREATER THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR 1.85 INCHES. STORM MOTION SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...AND GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH.

LOWS WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED ONGOING
SHWR/T-STORM ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS SOME MODELS STILL
SHOW A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING OF TUESDAY. FROM THERE, THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION DURING TUESDAY, BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN
THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VORT MAX DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, PASSING OVER THE DELMARVA REGION AND SOUTHERN NJ. THIS IS
ALSO THE REGION WHERE MU CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE THE HIGHEST.
HOWEVER, DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY THE MODELS SHOW NEGATIVE
THETA E ADVECTION. FOR NOW, WE HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION, WITH THE HIGHER POPS NEAR AND
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE, WE
HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED THESE ELEMENTS IN THE GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. IN ADDITION TO THE PROGGED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, TUESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID DAY. WARM
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER THIS COULD
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM ANY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE FALLING
DURING THE DAY, AND THUS WE EXPECT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY
HEAT RELATED HEADLINES. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL MAKE A MENTION OF
THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S. THIS WILL NOT LAST FOR
LONG, HOWEVER, AS A WARM FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH AND ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART, CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR SCATTERED SHWR/T-STORM ACTIVITY IN
THIS TIMEFRAME. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THEN FOR THE FCST
AREA INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCE POPS WERE ALSO RETAINED FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, AND A PRECIP FREE
FCST IS MAINTAINED ON SUNDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES, A BLEND OF HPC
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS
AROUND 5000 FEET CONTINUES TO FORM AND BREAK OFF. A PATCHY OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW
JERSEY THROUGH 1000 UTC. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
MORE THAN 60 TO 90 MINUTES AT ANY LOCATION.

A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL SITE WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED IS KABE...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE NEW FORECAST. SHOULD IT BE THREATENED...THE TERMINAL
FORECAST WAS BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE THREAT.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KRDG...KMIV AND
KILG...BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS NOT A LOCK. NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE 0600 UTC FORECAST.

A MAINLY VFR TODAY IS EXPECTED...BUT CONVECTION WILL START THIS
MORNING...AND COULD BECOME A PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE START TIME
OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT SET IN STONE YET...AND COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS 1500 UTC FOR KRDG AND KABE. ELSEWHERE...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS APPEARS TO BE 1900
UTC TO 2300 UTC...BUT THIS TIMING WILL BE REFINED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS (KRDG...KMIV). A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE
REGION AFTER 0900 UTC TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR/T-STORM
ACTIVITY MAY CREATE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHWR/T-STORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A TIME.

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF THE DELAWARE BAY REMAIN BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KNOTS...BUT ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS PROBABLY DROP OFF A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS SEAS
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.

SEA AND BAY BREEZES MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE GRADIENT FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE.
THE SUPERIMPOSITION OF THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD
RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND THE DELAWARE BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS...SO NO
MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WINDS SHOULD BACK OFF LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A
SLOWER PROCESS ON THE DELAWARE BAY THAN OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH COULD BRING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN OCEAN
WATERS CLOSER TO 4 FEET...BUT THIS COULD JUST BE THE NORMAL
WAVEWATCH OVERESTIMATION OF SEAS ON THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW. NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF REACHING SCA
CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO JUST MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA DURING THE EXTENDED.

.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR SPOTTER ON LONG BEACH ISLAND IS REPORTING A MODERATE SOUTH TO
NORTH CURRENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF
TIDE CHANGE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HAYES/KLINE
MARINE...HAYES/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

414 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS CONVECTION EARLY ON...AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.

LOWS WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR/T-STORM
ACTIVITY MAY CREATE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHWR/T-STORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A TIME.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HAYES/KLINE
MARINE...HAYES/KLINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

113 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TODAY AND DISSIPATE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND STALL NEAR VIRGINIA AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TRAIL FORMING IN THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY HAS EXTENDED INTO NEW JERSEY...REACHING TOWARD
THE MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY ELEVATED...AS THE 0000 UTC OKX
SOUNDING (AND THE EXPANDING CLUTTER ON THE KDIX RADAR) SHOWS
STABLE LOW LEVELS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH PROBABLY DOES NOT LAST MUCH LONGER.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...WINDS OR
SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS TIME OF YEAR IT TAKES VERY LITTLE ENERGY TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ANYWHERE IN OUR CWA AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS..AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SERIES
OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
THROUGH TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS TRICKY WITH EACH PASSAGE.
NONE-THE-LESS, DEWPOINTS WILL BE CLIMBING TO NEAR 70F AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 IN MOST SPOTS SO WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT
SEEING CONVECTION BEGIN BY LATE MORNING.

OF LATE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND AS SUCH OUR CONFIDENCE AS TO THE DETAILS AND
TIMING WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS
AROUND 5000 FEET CONTINUES TO FORM AND BREAK OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AFFECTING MAINLY KILG...KMIV AND KACY. THESE CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE LATTER NORTH.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

310 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS S FL ON
SUNDAY AND TONIGHT ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THE DIURNAL CYCLE HAS
ENDED THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND BUT STILL HAVE SCT SHRA ALONG
WITH A FEW TSRA OVER TH ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. MORE RADAR
SIGNATURES SHOWING UP OVER THE FL STRAITS WITH THE RAPID REFRESH
SHOWING THIS FLARE UP TO CONTINUE ADVANCING NORTH AND SOME EVEN
MOVING ONSHORE OF THE E CST REGION. THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED
HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING FOR THIS REGION. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO THE NW AWAY FROM S FL, A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE NAM SHOWS THIS DRIER AIR ARRIVING SOONER THAN WHAT THE GFS
INDICATES AND POPS COULD BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER, CANNOT IGNORE WHAT
IS ONGOING AND THUS THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE DRIER PATTERN WILL TREND THE POPS DOWN THROUGH THE END
OF THIS WEEK. THERE HAD BEEN SOME INDICATION EARLIER THAT MORE
SAHARAN DUST COULD ALSO ARRIVE THIS WEEK BUT MODELS DO NOT SHOW
THE EXTENT AS WITH THE LAST EPISODE AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE FCST FOR NOW. IT WOULD THEREFORE APPEAR THAT A RATHER
MUNDANE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFS 00Z RUN SHOWS THE DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SO THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
THE CURRENT FCST PACKAGE MAY HAVE TO BE SCALED BACK.

.MARINE...AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL YIELD SEAS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET.
HOWEVER, SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 89 78 / 60 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 80 / 60 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 77 91 76 / 50 20 20 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

425 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE DENSE LEVELS AND QUICKLY
BURN OFF AROUND SUNRISE. STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... RESULTING IN LOWER TO MID 90
DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...THEN MID AND UPPER 90S ON
TUESDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE
RIDING DOWN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SPARK A
FEW STORMS OVER NORTHEAST GA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT THE
GREATER THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
ROME TO ATLANTA TO DUBLIN LINE WHERE THE STRONGER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND SEA BREEZE FRONT COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
BREAK THE MID LEVEL CAP. ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY... AND WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE... A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH THAT COULD KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES. ALTHOUGH THE
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND GUST THREAT... IT SHOULD LESSON
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING... BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTER. AS FOR TEMPS... HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE LONG TERM. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS THE RIDGE KEEP THE STATE IN MOIST W TO SW
FLOW THROUGH DAY 6-7. ALL IN ALL WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA SAT PULLING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
IS THE FIRST RUN THIS IS SHOWING UP IN SO NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
THIS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE BUT
DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL SHOWING NEAR 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH SO HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A
CONCERN...AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT FEW-SCT CU
TO DEVELOP BY 17-19Z. ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS... SO
CONTINUED TO SHOW PROB30 22-24Z AT ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW. NEARLY
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING... WILL START OUT WSW BY 12Z... THEN BACK
MORE SSW BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 94 72 96 73 / 20 20 30 20
ATLANTA 95 74 95 76 / 30 30 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 89 68 91 69 / 20 20 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 69 95 71 / 30 30 30 20
COLUMBUS 95 73 95 75 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 93 73 94 75 / 30 20 30 20
MACON 95 72 95 73 / 30 30 30 20
ROME 95 70 97 72 / 30 30 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 94 69 94 71 / 30 30 30 20
VIDALIA 96 75 96 77 / 30 30 20 20

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

130 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.AVIATION / 06Z TAF ISSUANCE / ...
CONTINUE WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. KIWX AND KLOT RADARS SHOWING
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT AREA OBS INDICATING HIGH BASE IN NATURE AND NO CIG
OR VSBY ISSUES. WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH JUST VCSH AT BOTH SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

325 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN NH. 1 KM HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION AND
SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS PORTLAND AND OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE STABLE THAN THE CONVECTION
FARTHER SW WHICH HAS MORE LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. INSTABILITY SUPPORTS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE. MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF
PORTLAND AND AUGUSTA.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S AREAWIDE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MOIST GROUND AVAILABLE AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MAINE WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THESE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THUS FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SB CAPES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH ABOUT 30 KTS OF SHEAR CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST 0-1 KM. WITH
A BOUNDARY NEARBY ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH
DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING ANY PRECIPITATION TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN FOR WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERLY FLOW... THOUGH WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL STILL RISE
TO AROUND 80.

FROM THIS POINT ON... FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. ALL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WEAK WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY... WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE... SPREADING
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. CMC MODEL
TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH... THOUGH STILL MAINTAINS ITS
INTENSITY. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE...
HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BEST
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE TO PAINT A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

GFS CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW FOR FRIDAY... WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE... CMC MODEL KEEPS A TROUGH JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE... WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ECMWF FINALLY
PUSHES THE INITIAL WAVE SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST... WITH HEAVIER RAIN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. ONCE AGAIN... BEST SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE TO
PAINT A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR A LINGERING TROUGH OR A MORE SLOWLY MOVING INITIAL
WAVE.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SUNDAY.

IN GENERAL... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD MAY NOT BE A WASH OUT.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TODAY EXCEPT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE VISIBILITY/CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER. THIS
MORNING...WE MAY SEE BRIEF SHOWERS AT KLEB...KCON...KPSM...AND
KHIE. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT THOSE
SAME TERMINALS WHERE FORCING IS BEST. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
NOT AFFECT TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 24/06Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS NOW EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE OCEAN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN 5 FT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MAY INCREASE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS... BUT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP WINDS BELOW 25 KT.

.EQUIPMENT...
SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF
FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS
PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A
RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.

HANES/KIMBLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

419 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TWO THINGS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH THIS FORECAST. ONE...TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE HEALTHY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SECOND...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY OUR FIRST ADVENTURE INTO BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS THIS JULY...RIGHT AT THE END OF THE MONTH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER N/NW OF THE MPX CWA SUNDAY IS NOW OFF OVER THE U.P.
OF MICH...WITH NICE DRYING BEHIND IT OVER NRN MN. MONSOONAL MOIST
PLUME IS COMING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LAYING OVER
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. RAP SHOWS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SODAK AT 330 AM. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE WAS SPINNING ACROSS NRN WASH AND THIS IS THE ONE
THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR TODAY...WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE
AREA RIGHT NOW WILL BE SETTLING DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 90 WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. MPX AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON SRN EDGE OF SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET...SO CERTAINLY SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY /WIND AND HAIL/. HOWEVER...VERY WARM EML /SEE 00Z OMAHA
SOUNDING FROM LAST NIGHT/ WILL BE ADVECTING OVER THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LLJ DOES NOT REALLY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR GENERATING CONVECTION UNTIL TONIGHT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH
THE CAP SHOULD IN ALL LIKELIHOOD KEEP THE MPX AREA DRY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH DID LEAVE 20 POPS IN PLACE ACROSS S/SW PORTION
OF THE CWA JUST IN CASE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SODAK FINDS A
WAY TO ALLOW SOMETHING TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. MORE
LIKELY...CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE RAPIDLY AFTER 3Z ON
NOSE OF 20-25 KT LLJ THAT WILL BE RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A BAND OF LIKELIES FOR TONIGHT
THAT MORE OR LESS FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF PRECIP PLACEMENT FROM THE
GFS/SREF/SPC-WRF/ARW-WRF. BASED ON WHERE LLJ IS FORECAST TO SET
UP...NAM LOOKS TOO FAR NE WITH CONVECTION TONIGHT.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SE
CWA...BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WE END UP IN A BIT OF A COL AT
H85 BETWEEN TONIGHTS LLJ AND THE NEXT LLJ PUSH EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO DO EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIP COME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...ROUND TWO OF THE LLJ WILL COME IN A
BIT FARTHER NE THAN WHAT WE SEE FOR TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING BEST
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT TO BE SW OF 94...WHILE THINGS SHIFT NE OF 94
TUESDAY NIGHT. BESIDE THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WAA MOVING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT...H85 TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN MN AS
WELL...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE
WEST. AT ANY RATE...EXPECT THE KMPX RADAR SCOPE TO BE RATHER
COLORFUL COME TUESDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SFC
FRONT...IN THE FORM OF PROBABLY THE MOST LEGIT COLD FRONT WE HAVE
SEEN IN JULY...WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESIDING ACROSS ERN
AREAS...WITH WRN HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY BEING DRY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
COLLABORATION REASONS...BUT BASED ON TIMING OF FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...WITH IT BASICALLY EAST OF THE MPX CWA BY 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ENDS
UP BEING DRY. GOING INTO THURSDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WASH
WILL FINALLY BE DROPPING ACROSS NE MN INTO NRN WI. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPS RATES THU AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE MPX CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ADVECTING IN ON FRIDAY...WOULD SUSPECT CURRENT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS ERN PORTION OF CWA TO BE A BIT OVERDONE. WITH THAT
SAID...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS LINGERING ACROSS ERN AREAS ON FRIDAY
COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH SCT CONVECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WENT DRY
WITH THE FORECAST. RETURN FLOW SETS UP SAT AFTERNOON THOUGH OUT
WEST...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA COME SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP CERTAINLY LOOK TO COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
ECMWF AT LEAST SHOWS ANOTHER NICE OVERRUNNING TYPE PRECIP EVENT
SETTING UP.

FOR TEMPERATURES...925-850 TEMPS OFF THE SREF/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD FAVOR 90S BEING CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MN...WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY SUPPRESSING TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AND FAVORED HIGHS TODAY TOWARD THE SREF/GEM SOLUTIONS. FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK...BUT WAA
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME RATHER WARM
AIR BOTH DAYS AND CERTAINLY A SUNNIER SITUATION THAN CURRENTLY
BEING ADVERTISED WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING A BIT CLOSE TO OR
EVEN GREATER THAN 90 BOTH DAYS. A RARE SITE THIS JULY WILL THEN TAKE
PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY
FRIDAY...MODELS ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH HAVING 925-850 TEMPS DOWN
AROUND 18C...WHICH WHEN MIXED DOWN WOULD ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80. COMBINE THAT WITH DEWPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD END THE WEEK WITH ONE OF THE
NICEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER. FOR THE WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL START TO WARM THINGS UP...BUT
EVEN THEN...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
EARLY EVENING STORMS FROM NRN SD INTO NRN MN DISSIPATED LEAVING
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WEAK FRONT IN NW MN TAKING ITS TIME SO MOST
LOCALES WILL SEE LIGHT SW WINDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOG IS A BIT
OF A CONCERN. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH FRONT
NOT SCOURING OUT MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
CENTRAL MN WHERE ANY SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH A LITTLE
SURFACE MOISTURE. HAVE BROUGHT KSTC DOWN TO IFR IN FOG LATE
TONIGHT. KRNH AND KEAU MAY ALSO SEE SOME IFR BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
THEM WITH MVFR VSBY.

WEAK SHORT WAVE IN SWRN SD WILL REACH SRN MN MONDAY AFTER 15Z.
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SOME MID CLOUDS. STRONGER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
INFRINGE ON MN MONDAY EVENING AND HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWERS. WESTERN
WISC WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIP.

KMSP...LIGHT SW WINDS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FLIP OVER TO THE
NW...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS ANYWAY. WITH DECENT TEMP
DEWPOINT SPREAD THIS EVENING...DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG BUT
HAVE A 6SM VSBY MENTIONED FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE MENTIONING ANY PRECIP WHEN BETTER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES.

/OUTLOOK/ TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

242 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HOT AND DRY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TO NEAR THE APPALACHAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN THE PAST HOUR WITH ONLY
A LONE SHOWER NEAR THE TRIAD AS OF 01Z. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS IS DIFFICULT TO
FIND IN THE 00Z SURFACE OBS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND HAS DEVELOPED
WHEREVER CONDITIONS HAVE NOT GONE CALM.. WATER VAPOR AND RUC 300MB
VORTICITY SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT AN
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...ANYMORE SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS MUCH LOWER TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT LESS RAIN HAS FALLEN TO SUPPORT STRATUS DEVELOPING
IN-SITU...AND THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE WEAK.
HRRR CEILING FORECASTS AND NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER
POTENTIAL IN THE EAST...BUT IT COULD STILL BE PATCHY EVEN THERE.
OTHERWISE..SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO RECENT DAYS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH ONE
DIFFERENCE EXPECTED TO BE THAT THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EITHER BE ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT AND/OR LIFTING NORTH. WITH THE
850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF
850MB THETA-E IS FORECAST MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK
500MB JETLET AROUND 30KT AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST SHY OF 7C/KM...AND WHILE A STRONG
SURFACE FEATURE TO HELP GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS LACKING...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH ITSELF MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. DOWNDRAFT CAPE
IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DUE TO DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...WITH A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE BIASED CORRECTED MOS
GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT AT TIMES...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 93 TO 96.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY AS LIFT
DECREASES...ALONG WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS BECOMING
MORE STABLE WITH SLIGHT COLUMN WARMING ALOFT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE AT NIGHT...WITH BETTER THAN MODEST
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED 850MB CONVERGENCE APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. THE GFS SHOWS
SOMETHING SIMILAR...JUST DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MONDAY NIGHT. HOW THIS
COULD EVOLVE IS CERTAINLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT WILL NOTE
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE LATE AT NIGHT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
TIGHTER GRADIENT AND A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN SHOULD BE THE CASE
TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON AVERAGE WARMER THAN TONIGHT...
LOWER TO MID 70S. -DJF

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 242 AM MONDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

...HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING THE INCREASE OF THE
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG
MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS THE PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH TO SHARPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING (HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 90S)...SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO
30KT... MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF WHERE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. THE PARAMETERS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF FAIRLY ORGANIZED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE DAMAGING WINDS TO
60 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ERUPT ALONG
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... THEN TRANSLATE ESE
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL CARRY POP FROM
40-50 WITH THE LOWEST IN THE NW AND HIGHEST IN THE EAST (ALONG AND
EAST OF THE EXPECTED PIEDMONT TROUGH). HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70-74 RANGE (UPPER 60S) NW
PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES FOR SEVERAL HOURS TIME
AROUND 105 IN ALL BUT THE NW. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN OUTFLOWS
MAY SURGE INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CONVECTION AS WELL. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS 70-75 EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

THE NW FLOW RESUME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WED-THU. HOWEVER... CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NC MAY VERY WELL BE IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE FOR A GOOD
CHUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER... A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIST
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY AID IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.
THEREFORE... WE SHOULD SEE LIMITED POP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND/OR SANDHILLS
WHERE WE WILL CARRY 30-35 POP. HIGHS 90-95 EXPECTED EXCEPT SOLID MID
90S SOUTH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THURSDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL CARRY 40-50
POP AGAIN THURSDAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHS LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE HARD TO TIME
DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW THREATEN OUR AREA WITH CHANCES OF STRONG
STORMS... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30-35 POP EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRI-SUN. HIGHS LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS LOWER TO
MID 70S.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER... WITH THE WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE COUPLED WITH WEAK SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT POSSIBLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE
RATHER ISOLATED NATURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL HANDEL ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE TAFS WITH AMENDMENTS. MODELS/MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT
ANY CENTRAL NC TAF SITE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY SCATTERED
STRATUS AND LOW END VFR VISBYS (WITH KRWI STANDING THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY SUB VFR VISBYS OVERNIGHT). ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT
DEVELOP TONIGHT... WILL LIFT BY AT LEAST MID/LATE MORNING. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON/EVENING) AND A POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH MORNING. IN ADDITION
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS AROUND A THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS... WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

215 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE PAST
HOUR WITH ONLY A LONE SHOWER NEAR THE TRIAD AS OF 01Z. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS DIFFICULT TO FIND IN THE 00Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND HAS DEVELOPED WHEREVER CONDITIONS HAVE NOT
GONE CALM. WATER VAPOR AND RAP 300 MILLIBAR VORTICITY SUGGEST
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT AN
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL TRIGGER... ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS MUCH LOWER
TONIGHT GIVEN THAT LESS RAIN HAS FALLEN TO SUPPORT STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN-SITU...AND THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE WEAK. HRRR CEILING FORECASTS AND NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST... BUT IT COULD STILL BE PATCHY
EVEN THERE. OTHERWISE.. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO RECENT DAYS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH ONE
DIFFERENCE EXPECTED TO BE THAT THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EITHER BE ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT AND/OR LIFTING NORTH. WITH THE
850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF
850MB THETA-E IS FORECAST MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH A
WEAK 500 MILLIBAR JETLET AROUND 30KT AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
1000 TO 500 MILLIBAR LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST SHY OF
7C/KM...AND WHILE A STRONG SURFACE FEATURE TO HELP GENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION SEEMS LACKING... THE PIEDMONT TROUGH ITSELF MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE
LIMITED...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DUE TO DAMAGING WIND CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
WARMER MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS MONDAY... WITH A
DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE BIASED CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE READINGS
WHICH HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT AT TIMES...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 93
TO 96.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY AS LIFT
DECREASES...ALONG WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS BECOMING
MORE STABLE WITH SLIGHT COLUMN WARMING ALOFT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE AT NIGHT...WITH BETTER THAN MODEST
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED 850 MILLIBAR CONVERGENCE
APPROACHING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. THE
GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...JUST DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. HOW THIS COULD EVOLVE IS CERTAINLY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT WILL NOTE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE LATE AT NIGHT MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND A LITTLE
MORE WIND THAN SHOULD BE THE CASE TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
AVERAGE WARMER THAN TONIGHT... LOWER TO MID 70S. -DJF

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH AND EXTEND
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND AMPLIFYING
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. TAIL END OF THE SHORT
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRUSH VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER AND SUSTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BETTER ORGANIZED WELL NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES (ACROSS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AS THIS REGION WILL
BE ON THE SOUTH END OF MID LEVEL FLOW 40 TO 50 KNOTS). STILL...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. PROXIMITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COUPLED WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FROM PREVIOUS THOUGH POP MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCE ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND EVIDENCE/POSITION OF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY`S CONVECTION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE ABOUT 15 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
TO THE MID 90S ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 TO LOWER 70S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES 101 TO 105
OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
THICKNESSES LOWER A TAD WEDNESDAY THOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. SHADED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER FROM TUESDAY`S MAXIMUMS THOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER
OVER THE NORTH IF LATE TONIGHT CONVECTION OCCURS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LINGERS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES 70 TO 75. -WSS

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ON THURSDAY. RESULTANT WEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS WITH A ONE IN THREE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION.

HEIGHTS LOWER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A DECENT
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE SHOULD SHARPEN THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THIS IN TURN SHOULD CAUSE SLIGHTLY
BETTER CONFLUENCE..AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A HIGHER THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. BY SUNDAY BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20 METERS
ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTION INITIATION WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN DETERMINING HOW HOT IT WILL GET.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM...

AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR FOG IN THE
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS DAWN APPROACHES BUT QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE. VERY LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AS
WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 4 PM AND MOSTLY LIKELY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES AS SUNSET APPROACHES. FURTHER SOUTH
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. CONVECTION ENDS
IN THE EVENING AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL
PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. NO CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FEET
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON/EVENING) AND A POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW
CEILINGS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH MORNING. IN ADDITION
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS AROUND A THOUSAND FEET
OFF THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST... 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE... WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

NEAR TERM...SMITH/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/WSS
LONG TERM...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1000 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO RECENT DAYS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH ONE
DIFFERENCE EXPECTED TO BE THAT THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EITHER BE ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT AND/OR LIFTING NORTH. WITH THE
850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF
850MB THETA-E IS FORECAST MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK
500MB JETLET AROUND 30KT AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST SHY OF 7C/KM...AND WHILE A STRONG
SURFACE FEATURE TO HELP GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS LACKING...
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH ITSELF MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. DOWNDRAFT CAPE
IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DUE TO DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS MONDAY...
WITH A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE BIASED CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE
READINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT AT TIMES...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 93 TO 96.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH AND EXTEND NW-SE.
MEANWHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE
NORTHERN LAKES-SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NW ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. TAIL END OF THE S/W
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRUSH VA
INTO NE NC LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BETTER ORGANIZED WELL NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
(ACROSS NORTHERN VA INTO SOUTHERN PA AS THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE
SOUTH END OF MID LEVEL FLOW 40-50KTS). STILL...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 9 DEG C SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. PROXIMITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS
THOUGH POP MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCE ONCE
IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND
EVIDENCE/POSITION OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY`S
CONVECTION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE ABOUT 15M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW PIEDMONT TO THE MID 90S
ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S
EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES 101-105 OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCLUDING
THE NW PIEDMONT. THICKNESSES LOWER A TAD WEDNESDAY THOUGH 850MB
TEMPS STILL PROJECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 20 DEG C. SHADED MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER FROM TUESDAY`S MAX THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BE ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH IF LATE TONIGHT
CONVECTION OCCURS AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LINGERS WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS 70-75. -WSS

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SE U.S. ON THU. RESULTANT
WLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC WILL MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS WITH A 1-IN-3
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION.

HEIGHTS LOWER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S.
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A DECENT S/W CROSSING THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES-LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE SHOULD SHARPEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THIS IN
TURN SHOULD CAUSE SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFLUENCE..AND WHEN COUPLED WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A HIGHER
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. BY SUNDAY BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC THU-SUN
THOUGH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTION INITIATION WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW HOT IT WILL GET.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM SUNDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SEC/DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF/WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

655 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND PRODUCING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED VERY NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS EVE. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH AND INCREASE COVERAGE. A WEAK...VIRTUALLY STATIONARY
FRONT...WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...FROM HARTSVILLE TO DILLON TO
WHITEVILLE TO BURGAW. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECT AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVE.

THE RISK FOR CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS YOU MOVE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA AS DRIER AIR TO OUR S AND SE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND
CIN VALUES POINT TO CONVECTION HAVING A MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING/SUSTAINING ANY DEPTH DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THUS...WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE...GRAND STRAND...WINYAH BAY
AND LOWER CAPE FEAR COAST WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SPRINKLE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVE.

INSTABILITY IS RESPECTABLE...UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED WET-MICROBURST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO PRECIPITATION
LOADING. A VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS THUS POSSIBLE AND
HAIL CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AND STABILIZE AFTER
SUNSET. STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AFTER DARK
TO COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD HELP KEEP MINIMUMS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAIN TWO
DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURES CONTROLLING COASTAL CAROLINAS WEATHER.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SW SFC FLOW VEERING AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WILL BE 15 TO
25 KTS SUN AFTN INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS MON AFTN AS THEY
VEER TOWARD THE NW. MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM EAST AND WEST EXPANDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING
THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO NORTH OF LOCAL CWA. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
RISE UP TO 595 DEM AND WILL SEE INCREASED BUT WEAKER SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO THE NORTH AND STRONG WESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
MORE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME...WITH BETTER CHC OVER NC. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WATERS. ALSO EXPECT OTHER
SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH FURTHER INLAND AND
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE PROFILES DO SHOW VERY MOIST
UPPER LEVELS WITH WINDS ABOVE H4 HAVING GOOD NW-N COMPONENT.
THEREFORE EXPECT PERIODS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD FILTER OUT SOME OF
THE SUN.

WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW...EXPECT WARM SUMMERTIME TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN 90 AND 95
MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ABOVE CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

LARGE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST INTO
FLORIDA WILL GET GRADUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS CANADA SHEARS OFF AND DROPS VORT IMPULSES INTO A BROAD
EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...W/NW FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COLUMN ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE. AT THE
SURFACE...LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AS
WELL...BUT NEAR SURFACE S/SW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...850MB TEMPS AROUND
20C...AND MOIST RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL CREATE DECENT CONVECTION
CHANCES EACH DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL OCCUR
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEEP W/NW FLOW THE SEA BREEZE WILL
REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST. PWATS OF TWO INCHES OR GREATER AND
HIGH THETA-E AIR COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUBTLE VORT IMPULSES WILL SPAWN CONVECTION EACH AFTN...BUT MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED AND WILL KEEP INHERITED
CHC-BY-DAY...SILENT-BY-NIGHT POP. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE ILM CWA. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GET HUNG UP JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS WILL STILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING WED/WED NIGHT. OVERALL POP WILL TREND DOWNWARD
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SCHC POP (SILENT BY DAY 6/7) FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
IN A STILL VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS.

850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST
DAYS EVEN WITH THE LIMITING IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER. MINS AT NIGHT
WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 70S...NEAR 80 SOME NIGHTS AT THE COAST.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION IS REALLY WANING AT THIS POINT...WITH MAINLY
VCSH ADVERTISED IN THE TAFS. THE HRRR MODEL DOES DEPICT ANOTHER
BATCH OF CONVECTION AROUND 05Z...MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE PROBABLY HAS BEEN OVERDONE...AND THE LATEST
HOURLY RUN DOES WEAKEN IT A BIT.

MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT...AREAS THAT RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL...MAINLY LBT...COULD
SEE SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. SUNDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...A BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY. LIKEWISE DEEP MOISTURE IS A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY...BUT STILL COULD SQUEEZE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE NEARLY PINNED
SEA BREEZE IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
CONSEQUENTLY...EITHER ARE THE WINDS. A MODEST NOCTURNAL JET WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT STILL THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE...15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD...AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FT THIS
EVE...THEN LOWERING BY ABOUT A FOOT INTO SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND
CAROLINAS. NAM SHOWING DECENT LOW LEVEL JETTING BOTH SUN AND MON
NIGHT BUT STRONGER MON NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE UP TO 25 TO
30 KTS. OVERALL EXPECT SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS SUNDAY INCREASING
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY AND VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
W-SW. EACH AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ON SHORE AND
GUSTIER CLOSE TO THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WNA SHOWING
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SECOND SWELLS MIXING WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SHOULD REACH UP TO 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT IN STRONGER W-SW WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH PERSISTENT SW RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC
WIND. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL OCCUR ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...EASING TO AROUND 10 KTS AND VEERING TO SLIGHTLY MORE
W/SW BY THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THESE SW WINDS WILL KEEP A 4-5FT/5SEC SW WIND WAVE ONGOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PERSISTENT FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SE GROUND SWELL PRESENT
WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM. SWELL INITIALLY OF 2FT/9SEC WILL BECOME
2FT/13 SEC BY THURSDAY. SEAS OF 3-5 FT TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE...BECOMING 2-3 FT THURSDAY THANKS TO EASING WINDS AND THE
LONGER PERIOD SWELL DECAYING MORE QUICKLY DUE TO OCEAN BOTTOM
FRICTION.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

935 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND EAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE FRONT EASING ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH VIRGINIA...THOUGH STILL MOSTLY NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER. THE 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FARTHER NORTH TOWARD
MARYLAND...CLOSER TO WHERE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. ON WATER
VAPOR...THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...
AND A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON WATER VAPOR WAS APPARENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET AXIS AT 250MB MOVES EAST NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
FRONT NEARBY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS AND APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT LEAST AROUND 2 INCHES...SO MOISTURE REMAINS AMPLE.
MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
RAP...ALTHOUGH AS NOTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE DCAPE SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY LOW...BELOW 500J/KG...AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...MOSTLY AT OR
BELOW 10KT. WOULD ANTICIPATE A CHARACTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NUMEROUS IN
COVERAGE BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE FAIRLY ISOLATED...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING FAIRLY LOCAL DAMAGING WIND. SLIGHTLY BETTER
LOCATIONS FOR SUCH MAY BE THE FAR NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ITS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST...
WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG WITH THE 0-6KM
SHEAR...IN VICINITY OF 20KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT AND OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S...CLOSER TO 90 NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE THERE IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUN
FOR LONGER PERIODS. -DJF

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLD STORMS) AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY
AND A POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN VICINITY OF THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED/DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. -VINCENT

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN LIFTING/WASHING OUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SW ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... AS ANOTHER VERY STRONG HEAT RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 40 POP. AREAL AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE. HOWEVER... 0.25 TO 0.50 TOTALS
ARE STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALLY UP TO
AN INCH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... THE STORMS
WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. A FEW
WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90-95 RANGE FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY.
POP WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

BY MONDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE GONE. HOWEVER... A
PIEDMONT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK HEATING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SE OF THE TRIAD REGION (OR ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH POSITION). HIGHS WILL WARM SOLIDLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECASTS. IT APPEARS THE
HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL AGAIN GO WILD. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE FROM KS/MO TO IL/IN... RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY DRY GROUND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND TO THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY... BUT THERE ARE SIGNS AGAIN THAT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD AGAIN KEEP OUR
REGION FROM ROASTING AND BURNING UP LIKE OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST.

THE HOTTEST DRIEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS OF 95-99 ARE
EXPECTED. RDU MAY HIT 100 AGAIN? THEN... THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN WED-FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OR MVFR VISBYS IN FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
(2000-3000 FT AGL) COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOME
LOCATIONS...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3000-4000 FT
AGL (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION). ISOLATED MVFR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH NOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 03Z
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT
THE FAY TAF SITE WHERE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER...SUSTAINED AT
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. GIVEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AREAS
OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISBYS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING).

LOOKING AHEAD:
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (18-03Z) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND EARLY MORNING (06-14Z) FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. -VINCENT

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

550 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEEK`S END.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY APPEARED NORTH OF THE BORDER AND IS
TRACKING ESE...WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO MY FAR NERN ZONES JUST
AROUND SUNRISE.

OF MORE INTEREST LATER TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO COOK UP
SEVERE STORMS AS A POTENT COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT
APPROACH FROM THE GR LAKES. WITH THE REGION EXPECTED TO COME UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER JET MAX...WE WILL SEE A
RAPID RESPONSE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 30-40KT OF WSW LOW LEVEL JET
BRINGING A SURGE IN WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE...LEADING TO A
STEEPENING OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS INCREASE IN
WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. SPC
HAS THE REGION OUTLOOKED EXPECTING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF CAPE AND
INCREASING SHEAR TO HELP SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE
ENTERING THE FCST AREA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS
LIKE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
TROFFING AND INSTABILITY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION. WITH
THE MAIN FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE..I DOWNPLAYED THE TYPICALLY WET SREF AND LEANED CLOSER TO
THE MOS POPS.

LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH MOST AREAS WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS TICKLING 90.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF DRY BREAK FOR MID WEEK...MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURNING AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN IN
FAVOR OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT TURNS FLOW ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN MOISTURE FLOODING BACK INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT CHANCE POPS ARE BACK IN THE FCST FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED WITH A PRETTY REDUNDANT MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES AFTER TUESDAY WILL NOT VARY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS NOTED BY THE EVENING CREW...SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES...BUT SO FAR MOST THE ACTIVITY IS NORTH
OF CENTRAL PA. MAIN PROBLEM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE PATCHY
FOG.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE PROBLEM BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION...
STRONG HEATING...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY TRIGGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. ACTIVITY MAY WORK SE INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA VLY
THIS EVENING.

A BREEZY DAY ON TUE...AS A STRONG JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WED.

FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING MORE STORMY WEATHER TO
THE AREA ON THU...AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE FRI.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...EARLY AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATE.

.EQUIPMENT...
RADAR IS INOP. EL TECHS WILL INVESTIGATE FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
EQUIPMENT...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

517 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEEK`S END.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CONVECTION HAS FINALLY APPEARED NORTH OF THE BORDER AND IS
TRACKING ESE...WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO MY FAR NERN ZONES JUST
AROUND SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
TROFFING AND INSTABILITY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION. WITH
THE MAIN FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE..I DOWNPLAYED THE TYPICALLY WET SREF AND LEANED CLOSER TO
THE MOS POPS.

LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH MOST AREAS WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS TICKLING 90.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AFTER A BRIEF DRY BREAK FOR MID WEEK...MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURNING AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN IN
FAVOR OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT TURNS FLOW ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN MOISTURE FLOODING BACK INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT CHANCE POPS ARE BACK IN THE FCST FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED WITH A PRETTY REDUNDANT MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES AFTER TUESDAY WILL NOT VARY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS NOTED BY THE EVENING CREW...SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES...BUT SO FAR THE ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF
CENTRAL PA. MAIN PROBLEM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE PATCHY
FOG.

A BREEZY DAY ON TUE...AS A STRONG JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WED.

FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING MORE STORMY WEATHER TO
THE AREA ON THU...AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE FRI.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...EARLY AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATE.

.EQUIPMENT...

RADAR IS INOP. EL TECHS WILL INVESTIGATE FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
EQUIPMENT...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

231 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SREF CONTINUES TOO WET FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

02Z HRRR STILL WANTS TO FIRE UP AN MCS TO OUR NORTH AND TRACK IT
DOWN OVER NERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. AGAIN...NO EVIDENCE OF
ANYTHING HAPPENING NOW SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE OF THE HRRR IS
PRETTY MUCH NIL. SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECTATIONS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED OVERALL. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH GENERALLY IN
THE 65-70F RANGE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SHIFT A BIT EWD ON MONDAY. ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...A BELT OF W-NW MID-LVL FLOW IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN INTO
THE NE STATES AS S/WV TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVR SERN CANADA.

AGREE WITH THE OVERNIGHT MID-SHIFT FORECASTER THAT THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING...WITH
INCREASING W-NWLY DEEP LYR SHEAR ATOP A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BLYR.
THE WLY FLOW WILL CONT TO DRAW EML/PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES EWD FM THE MIDWEST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD FM THE LWR LKS. SREF DATA SHOWS H85 MSTR
FLUX ANOMS PEAKING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MON EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SUGGESTING A ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
RACING SEWD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...SPC HAS ALSO RECOGNIZED THE INCREASE SVR WX THREAT AND
UPGRADED A GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA TO SLIGHT RISK. UPDATED THE
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGER SLIGHT RISK THREAT AREA.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. - RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FEED NW FLOW INTO THE NERN U.S.

INITIALLY WAVE IN UPPER FLOW WILL NUDGE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION FOR MON AND TUE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BEST
CHANCES ON TUE APPEAR TO BE IN THE SW...AS AN MCS MAY SLIDE INTO
THAT AREA LATER MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUES. AFTER
THAT...CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BRING SOME WARM AND DRIER WX FOR
MID WEEK.

EARLIER DISAGREEMENTS FOR LATE WEEK BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF ARE LESSER THIS CYCLE. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFS IN
POSITION OF PRECIP AREAS FOR THU...BOTH MODELS GIVE CHANCE OF
TSTMS FOR MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
ON FRI...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. WEATHER MAY
REMAIN A BIT UNSETTLED HEADING INTO SAT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASE SAT INTO SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPS DON/T MOVE MUCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS NOTED BY THE EVENING CREW...SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES...BUT SO FAR THE ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF
CENTRAL PA. MAIN PROBLEM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE PATCHY
FOG.

A BREEZY DAY ON TUE...AS A STRONG JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WED.

FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING MORE STORMY WEATHER TO
THE AREA ON THU...AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE FRI.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...EARLY AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

127 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SREF CONTINUES TOO WET FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN
VALLEYS.

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHRA/TSRA REMAINING NORTH
OF THE PA/NY BORDER. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA ACROSS
NORTHERN PA TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATED COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION IN THE FCST AT EITHER BFD OR IPT. MCLEAR SKIES AND A
LIGHT WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z. LATEST
MDL GUIDANCE AND 23Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...INCLUDING MDT/LNS...ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE VSBY
REDUCTIONS BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH DON/T ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO DROP
BLW MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS...LATEST MDL SFC RH FIELDS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BRIEF DIP BLW 3SM IS POSSIBLE AT LNS NR DAWN.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA
TO THE AREA. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SOMETIME BTWN 16Z-21Z OVER WESTERN PA AND BTWN
18Z-23Z OVER EASTERN PA. A COUPLE HRS OF MVFR CONDS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THESE POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...EARLY AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS.

.AVIATION...
SCT CIRRUS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED THRU 09Z. SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS AT 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT IS EXPECTED VCNTY OF KAUS
TO KSAT FROM 09Z TO 14Z...WHILE FURTHER WEST SCT CIRRUS ABOVE
25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2 TO 3 THSD FT IS POSSIBLE VCNTY OF KDRT FROM 13Z TO 15Z.
AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY SCT CUMULUS AT 4 THSD TO 8 THSD FT IS
FORECAST...WITH HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SCT ABOVE 25 THSD FT.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON MONDAY...MAINLY EAST OF A KBMQ TO KPEZ LINE. SCT CIRRUS ABOVE
25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z...BECOMING
CIGS 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AFTER 08Z
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 2 THSD SCT VCNTY OF KDRT. S AND SE WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z
ON MONDAY. AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT...S TO SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS IS FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTIONING OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EASTERN COUNTIES. ALSO...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PER 00Z 500 MB SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. ALL...WRF 3KM/NAM12
AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST DRYING CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR TONIGHT AND THEREFORE...SHOWED SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS OR LESS
FOR THIS PERIOD. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH MID WEEK IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

BROAD...RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID SECTION HAS AREA IN
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER IMPULSES. ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO IS
SWEEPING IN DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE LOW
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSS RIDGE IS
FIRING NEW CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AROUND IMMEDIATE AREA AND WITH DEW
POINTS UP TONIGHT A BIT MORE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. FEELING IS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP BULK OF AREA
IN VFR CONDITIONS SO WON`T HIT FOG TOO HARD.

A LITTLE UNCLEAR IF CONVECTION TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT AREA AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. BEST CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL WEST BUT SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD GET SOME DECAYING SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
AREAS AFTER DAYBREAK. MAY INCLUDE BRIEF WINDOW AT KRST FOR NOW BUT
BULK OF DAY SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

BIT STRONGER WAVE HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY GENERATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE WORKED OUT IN CLOSER TIME FRAME BUT FOR NOW INTRODUCED
SHOWERS INTO TAF SITES WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

739 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY AND BRIEFLY CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE ALL THE WAY FROM
BUFFALO`S AREA. BUFFALO WARNED ON ONE CELL. SO FAR...NOTHING IN OUR
AREA EVEN CLOSE TO SEVERE. THESE APPEAR TO BE HONED INTO AN ELEVATED
WARM FRONT. THE OVERALL TREND WAS THEM TO WEAKEN A LITTLE.

THE IFR SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED QUITE AN MCS NORTH OF THE ARROW
OF MINNESOTA. THIS WILL THE MCS THAT MIGHT IMPACT US LATER TONIGHT.

BACK TO THE PROBLEM AT HAND...BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD LATER
THIS MORNING.

THEN...ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 0Z
NAM CAME IN BACKING OFF THE QPF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPLYING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
SOUTH. WILL KEEP WHAT WE HAD IN FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL
ONE.

THE LATEST HRRR THOUGH TENDS TO KEEP MOST OF THE STORMS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GFS AND EURO WERE NOT AS
DISCRIMINATING WITH THE QPF.

PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. DECIDED NOT TO USE ANY SORT OF ENHANCED WORDING WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY LOOK FAIRLY "RUN OF THE MILL." WHILE SOME CERTAINLY
COULD HAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PROBABLY NOTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AT LEAST SO FAR.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...IT LOOKS AS
IF THERE MIGHT BE A BREAK AS ONE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST CUTTING OFF
THE EML AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE
WHICH WILL SERVE TO HEAT THINGS UP...PRODUCING MUCAPES UP TO 2000
J/KG LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SETTING UP TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOOK TO FIRE UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO
ABOUT 6.5 KM/C AND ANY CAP LOOKS TO ERODE. THE WIND FIELD LOOKS
RELATIVE LIGHT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND A MODEST 20 KTS.
HOWEVER...A HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL OVER 40,000 FEET SHOULD ALLOW FOR
POTENTIALLY TALL UPDRAFTS THAT COULD CONTAIN PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...FEATURING LARGE HAIL AND MARGINALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN DRAGGING WHATEVER WIND IS ELEVATED RIGHT TO THE GROUND
OVER A SMALL AREA (WET MICROBURST).

THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AROUND SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
FEATURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...A POTENT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS
THE ARROW HEAD OF MINNESOTA LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT
JUST AHEAD OF THE REAL COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL...WIDESPREAD ASCENT INCREASES AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE LEFT UPPER LEVEL EXIT JET REGION . THE OVERALL WIND FIELD
WILL INCREASE. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP AND
TAKE AIM ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS EVEN AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THIS MCS COULD DEVELOP INTO A DERECHO AS THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS A POOL OF HIGH INSTABILITY LINING UP FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...SOUTHEAST INTO OUR PORTION OF OUR ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND ON
TOP OF THIS ENHANCED INSTABILITY IS UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM A WNW
DIRECTION WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO OVER 30 KTS. THIS SCENARIO
IS CERTAINLY NOT ETCHED IN STONE...BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

SPC PLACES MOST OF OUR REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT SO WE WILL CERTAINLY USE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR FORECAST...MAINLY TIMING THESE TO THIS AFTERNOON
(WITH THE PULSE TYPE STORMS) AND LATER IN THE EVENING FOR THE
POSSIBLE MCS. ADDED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER MAV
NOS...WHICH GIVES HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO RAMP UP TOWARD 70 DEGREES SO IT WILL BE A HUMID ONE AS WELL.

IT WILL REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

SPECIFIC CHANGES TO THIS ENHANCED UPDATE INCLUDED INCREASING
COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY UNTIL MID MORNING AND ONLY
MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTUAL SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE NOT FORECASTED TO TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION UNTIL
TUESDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING SHOULD BE GONE SO WILL JUST
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE
TO START THE DAY...TAPERING ANY POPS FROM NORTH AND WEST AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

COLD ADVECTION SPREADS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...SO PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH INCREASING SUN LATER
IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER PLACES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S...WITH ONLY 70S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
GREENS. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE 60S...INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY BY DAY/E END. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE
WHICH WHILE HELPING TO PROMOTE MIXING...SHOULD KEEP IT FROM FEELING
UNBEARABLE DOWN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLID SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
THERE MIGHT BE A SECONDARY ONE WORKING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD REMAIN UP MUCH OF THE
NIGHT KEEPING A BREEZE GOING WHICH IN TURN...MIGHT PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE THAN THEY WOULD HAVE IF THEY WENT CALM.
FOR THIS REASON...LEANED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NOS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A REFRESHING AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...STILL WITH A
BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
COOL TO ABOUT +10C NORTH TO ABOUT +12C SOUTH. WITH GOOD MIXING...WE
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT 80-85 IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE
THAT DAY WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) SUGGEST THE LONG TERM PERIOD COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WET PERIOD...WHICH IS SOMETHING THE ALY FORECAST AREA
HAS NOT SEEN SINCE EARLY JUNE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS
COULD ENTER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON THURSDAY...ALL MODELS SHOW SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...AND THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS
SHOW THE HIGHEST PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA (ONE TO TWO INCHES). FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE POP
FORECAST TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS...AS HAVE MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 70 AND 80...BUT IF PCPN
MOVES IN AS FAST AS SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST (AROUND SUNRISE)...
THEN AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY NOT SEE TEMPS RISE OUT
OF THE 60S.

AT THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS ENDS THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. IT THEN FORECASTS A DRY DAY
FOR FRIDAY AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE LOW ARE THEN FORECAST
TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS CONSISTENTLY HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO NEVER
MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR ANY CLEARING.

HAVE NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH MODEL TO FAVOR AT THIS POINT SO WILL
FORECAST LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HAVE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS DURING THE FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY PERIOD NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW...BUT IF WIDESPREAD PCPN DOES
MATERIALIZE ON ANY OF THESE DAYS...THEN EXPECT ACTUAL HIGHS TO BE UP
TO 10 DEGREES LESS.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT DURING POSSIBLE CONVECTION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...
AS OF 1145Z...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF 1-90). THESE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KPOU AND
KPSF TAF SITES THRU ABOUT 14Z AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. NO ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION HEADING TOWARDS THE OTHER TAF SITES SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW AND UPDATE IF ANY OTHER CONVECTION POPS UP.

LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE
PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COULD RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST VCSH IN THE TAFS...WITH A 6 HOUR PROB 30 GROUP FOR
STRONG CONVECTION WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 23/21Z AND 24/03Z...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF A STORM HITS ANY OF THE TAF
SITES.

LATER TONIGHT MVFR FOG AND CIGS MAY FORM AT SOME TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS TO 30
KTS OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.
WHILE NOT QUITE A WET FLAG SITUATION...THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BRING A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL TO MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED...STARTING OUT 75-90 PERCENT AND
ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE...BACK UP TO NEAR 100
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PLUNGES SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
RIVER BASIN AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
THIS RAIN MIGHT BRING A MINOR RESPONSE ON SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE MINOR.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BRING SOME
PONDING TO PLACES OF POOR DRAINAGE.

AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS THEN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

AN POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH
AND PRETTY STRONG IMPULSES LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG IT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. STAY
TUNED.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

645 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THE IFR SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED QUITE AN MCS NORTH OF THE ARROW
OF MINNESOTA. THIS WILL THE MCS THAT MIGHT IMPACT US LATER TONIGHT.

BACK TO THE PROBLEM AT HAND...BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD LATER
THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST HRRR THOUGH TENDS TO KEEP MOST OF THE STORMS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GFS AND EURO WERE NOT AS
DISCRIMINATING WITH THE QPF.

IT WILL REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

SPECIFIC CHANGES TO THIS ENHANCED UPDATE INCLUDED INCREASING
COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY UNTIL MID MORNING AND ONLY
MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE ACTUAL SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE NOT FORECASTED TO TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION UNTIL
TUESDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING SHOULD BE GONE SO WILL JUST
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE
TO START THE DAY...TAPERING ANY POPS FROM NORTH AND WEST AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT DURING POSSIBLE CONVECTION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...AS OF 0545Z...A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS. THIS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KPOU TAF SITE BETWEEN
07Z AND 11Z AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS TO OCCUR WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT IF THE CORE OF A PARTICULAR TSTM WHERE TO GO
DIRECTLY OVER KPOU...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NO ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION HEADING TOWARDS THE OTHER TAF SITES SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW AND UPDATE IF ANY OTHER CONVECTION POPS UP.
WITH A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NO FOG ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.