Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/21/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

958 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX
ROTATED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE FRONT RANGE AND HELP SPUR
ON THE CONVECTION THE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
THEN ROTATED TO THE NORTH OVER THE NW PLATEAU AND NW CO MTS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL CO/UT BORDER
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

A LITTLE DRIER AIR-MASS MOVED INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TODAY
AS EVIDENCED BY WTR VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES. ALSO THE BEST UPSTREAM
SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS ABQ AND THEY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRYING
TREND FROM THE MORNING BEFORE. HOWEVER DWPTS AND INFERRED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED BY 2-10 DEGREES. THIS AFTERNOON NO
SHWRT WV TRIGGER IS SEEN TO REALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION...SO WILL
HAVE TO RELY ON SOLAR HEATING. CURRENT RADAR AND STLT PICS AS OF
1430 INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF RIDGES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT SO FAR NOTHING TO GET EXCITED ABOUT.
TONIGHT ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND PRETTY
MUCH COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH PCP WTR VALUES RISING BACK UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH. AGAIN NO REALLY DEFINABLE SHRT WV IS SEEN SO EXPECT
NO BIG CHANGES IN AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

HIGH SUMMER IS UPON US AND REMAINS AS FAR INTO THE FUTURE AS WE
CAN PEER. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THAT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
DROUGHT TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...REMAINS CENTERED ON THE
HIGH PLAINS. WE ARE FORTUNATE TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE THAT ALLOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PERCOLATE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER AROUND
1 INCH...DEEPEST SOUTH. WITH SLOW STORM MOTION THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY SOUTH. OTHER DANGERS
INCLUDE LIGHTNING AND LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MOSTLY ABOVE 15KFT...HAIL WILL
BE SMALL AND LIMITED TO THE STRONGEST CORES OVER HIGH TERRAIN.

MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP ON SUNDAY THAT MAY FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO DISTURBANCES ARE
CURRENTLY RESOLVED THAT WOULD INDICATE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE
DURING ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THE REST OF TONIGHT ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW
CO...AND NE UT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT FIRST THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING
OVER THE VALLEYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. KASE
AND KEGE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1100 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1430Z...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...WHILE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO DOTTED PARTS OF
THE NYC METRO AREA. THE 12Z RAP INDICATED THAT THESE AREAS SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER AND POSSIBLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS A MID LEVEL
VORT MAX SLIDES ACROSS AND PROVIDES WEAK LIFT...SO UPDATED FOR SCT
COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN...WITH MOCLDY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...
IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...ALONG WITH LOWER RH.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TRACKING TOWARDS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE DISAGREEMENT LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP
SHIELD GETS WITH AN INCREASING ELY FLOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE EFFECTS BATTLING HIGH PRES TO THE N. NAM MASS FIELDS
APPEARED TO BE THE MOST IN LINE AND SIDED MOSTLY WITH ITS SOLN
WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTN...WILL INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 2
INCHES BY FRI MORNING. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN S OF THE
AREA AND DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRESENT TONIGHT OR FRI SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW AND PRECIP...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING APPEARS TO RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
WAVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
IN AND A TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST.

TROUGHING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CANADIAN
MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RUN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND EARLY CLOUD
COVER. FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...A
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. INCREASED
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PRESENT A
THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTION...MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE WITH SHORTWAVE
AXIS AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING.

SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS AS WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE AMENDED MANY OF THE NYC TERMINALS TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MVFR CLOUD DECK EXPANDING IN NORTHEAST
FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT PRESENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. RADAR
ALSO SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NJ WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS
THEY REACH THE NYC AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS BUT CIGS/VSBY MAY BE REDUCED FOR A BRIEF TIME.

WINDS START OFF FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BECOME EASTERLY OR
E-SE. AROUND 090-130 DEGREES. SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-12 KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KLGA WHERE SOUND ENHANCED WIND IS
HELPING TO KEEP WINDS NEAR 15-20KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE DUE
EASTERLY...AROUND 080-090. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KT OR SO. WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST TERMINALS
AFTER 01Z.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 15-16Z
WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VSBY. ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR CIGS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 15-16Z
WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VSBY. ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS FOR
CIGS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT WITH AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VSBY. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CIGS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 15-16Z
WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VSBY. ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR CIGS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT MORNING...SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...BEST
CHANCE AT SOUTHERN/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...CHANCE OF TSTMS.

.MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
THE N AND LOW PRES PASSING TO THE S COULD RESULT IN OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. FLOW THEN RELAXES WITH SUB-ADVY CONDS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING E FLOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI...AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS ON FRI.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI NIGHT
WITH A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AND STRONGER NE FLOW. GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE JUST BELOW SCA ON SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH WAVEWATCH
HAS HAD A POSITIVE BIAS FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER...WITH THE STRONGER
FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH THINK WAVEWATCH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT ARE REASONABLE.

CANADIAN MARITIMES HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY
WITH DIMINISHING NE WINDS...BUT EASTERLY SCA SWELLS MAY LINGER INTO
SAT EVENING.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1/10 TO CLOSE
TO 1 INCH...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NYC/NE NJ AND LOWEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/CT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVE. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SO THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRO TIDES DUE TO A RECENT NEW MOON...AND SURGE VIA A
STRONG NE FLOW...MAY COMBINE TO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI
NIGHT ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND... THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...AND
THE SOUTHERN THE BAYS OF NYC. SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 TO 1.75 FT WILL
BE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS TIME.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...IRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

317 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS..
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC CHANGE DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS...HOWEVER WV IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE NICELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT
COLUMN DEEP AIRMASS CHANGE IS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THIS
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FIRST INFLUENCE THE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. UPPER
PATTERN CONSISTS OF RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE CENTER (595DM) CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WE CONTINUE TO
FIND A WEAKNESS/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS. THIS WEAKNESS IS SLOWLY GIVING UP ITS
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE 19/00Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL SHOWED A RATHER MOIST COLUMN WITH A PW VALUE
AROUND 2" (~120% OF NORMAL). THESE ELEVATED/MOIST VALUES SHOULD BE
FALLING IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA (ROUGHLY ALONG 1-75`S ALLIGATOR
ALLEY)...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL THE RADAR IS MUCH LESS
ACTIVE THIS MORNING THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...STACKED RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER COLUMN. THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL
BE THE TRANSITION ZONES BETWEEN THIS WARMER AND MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...AND COOLER AND CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER NORTH. NORTH OF ROUGHLY THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE
MOIST COLUMN AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NW WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET GOING IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OVER THE NE GULF AND MIGRATE BACK TO THE NATURE COAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THESE
NORTHERN ZONES IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN. MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES ARE OVER 330K WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS (UPPER
80S-90). HEADING SOUTH FROM I-4 THE FORECAST WILL BE QUITE
DIFFERENT. A DRIER COLUMN WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW CLIMO.
MORE SUN AND ADDED SUPPRESSION WILL ALLOW THINGS TO HEAT UP THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR MANY INLAND AREA TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
(EVEN A FEW UPPER 90S). AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES ARE BETWEEN 100-105F...SO BE CAREFUL IF WORKING OUTDOORS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED ON A 1-TO-1 BLEND OF THE MOIST MAV AND DRIER
MET DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE 00Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR MIXING DOWN IS CERTAINLY THERE. TENDING TO SIDE WITH THE NAM
BASED MET NUMBERS SINCE THE NAM IS GENERALLY BETTER GUIDANCE IN
TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MIXING. WITH THIS IN MIND...THESE HEAT INDICES
ARE LIKELY A WORST CASE SCENARIO...AND ACTUAL DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS STRONG ENOUGH OVERHEAD AND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO PUSH MOST INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. DRIEST AXIS OF AIR ALSO LOOKS TO MIGRATE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH INTO MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THE
MORE UNIFORM SUPPRESSION AND BELOW CLIMO RAIN COVERAGE...WILL
ANTICIPATE A RATHER HOT DAY REGION-WIDE...WITH MANY MID 90S READINGS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAY STILL SEE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE AROUND CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY...BUT THEREAFTER...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS. SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD TO
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ALLOWING A MORE E/SE 1000-700MB FLOW OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INFLUX OF MOISTURE...THIS
FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE LATE DAY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SW FL COAST
SEA-BREEZE AND LIKELY FIRE A FEW STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES
OVER THE INTERIOR LOOK TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 100-105 IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE DEFINITION OF A SUMMER DAY IN FLORIDA.
STACKED RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH BOTH THE LOW LEVEL AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOWEVER WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH THE RESULTING SUPPRESSION.
THEREFORE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A TYPICAL
DISTRIBUTION OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
(30-40% POPS). SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN EXIST DOWN
TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES (50%) WITH ANOTHER SETUP OF FAVORABLE
LATE DAY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SW FL SEA-BREEZE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
THE ATLANTIC...WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE RIDGE IS FARTHEST NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE AXIS ACTUALLY A BIT
NORTH OF THE STATE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE OVERSPREADING THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS
LOOKS WETTER THAN BOTH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...SO SHAVED ABOUT 10
POINTS OF THE MEX POPS FOR NOW. THIS STILL YIELDS SOLID 40 TO 50
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY ANYWAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED...ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL
WAVE. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES TO BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND LOWER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD
SOUTH.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO LEND AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHILE THE DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
REST OF THE REGION FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD TPA...PIE AND SRQ.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PUSH RAPIDLY INLAND BY AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT WEAK AND OUR WINDS AND
SEAS FORECAST GENERALLY LOW. LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS ALLOWING A MORE ELEVATED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FIRST FELT ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TODAY AND THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER THAN WHAT
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY...CRITICALLY LOW READINGS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO ARRIVE FORM THE EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 78 93 78 / 20 10 20 10
FMY 94 77 93 77 / 20 10 40 30
GIF 93 76 95 76 / 30 10 20 10
SRQ 90 76 91 77 / 20 10 20 10
BKV 90 72 95 71 / 40 10 20 10
SPG 90 79 92 80 / 20 10 20 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

155 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.AVIATION...
FOCUS WILL BE ON AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH SITES. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...BETTER
CHANCE WILL EXIST AT KFWA WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT KSBN.
PREV ISSUANCE/AMENDMENTS ALREADY HAVE THIS IN HAND SO NO CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED. LARGE AREA OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT BOTH
SITES FROM COMBINATION OF STRATUS ALREADY MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS OF CLEARING AS A RESULT OF
MOIST BL FROM RECENT RAINFALL. HAVE BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO 1000 FT
AND MAY NEED TO LWR FURTHER IN LATER ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

.UPDATE...
GRIDS BEING UPDATED TO PUSH STEADY RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST
AND FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NORTH OF CHAMPAIGN IL AS OF 1 PM EDT.
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF IT CONTINUES TO SCOUR OUT WITH HEATING
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. STRATUS DECK NORTH
OF THE LOW HAS UNDERWENT SOME BREAKDOWN WITH MORE OF A STRATOCU
APPEARANCE...INDICATING AMOUNT OF INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS. HRRR 13Z RUN DEVELOPS CONVECTION RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRACKS SOUTH OF US 30.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY HOW THIS EVOLVE AND THE
TIMING WITH DESTABILIZATION STILL UNDERWAY AND LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLOUDS AROUND TO SLOW THIS PROCESS SOMEWHAT.
REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STG-SVR STORMS IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA. RECENT SWODY1 CONFINED RISK TO FAR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES /SOUTH OF US 24/. HWO KEEPS THREAT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
THAN THIS BUT AS NOTED IS CONTINGENT ON INITIATION AND INSTABILITY
MATERIALIZING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012/

UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH NOON. CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
ILLINOIS SHOULD EDGE INTO AT LEAST W/SW AREAS ALLOWING FOR SOME
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN IOWA
THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS WAS DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY PUT AN
END TO RAIN CHANCES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING MUCH. FOR THE TIME BEING...AFTERNOON GRIDS REFLECT
LOW END CHC POPS NORTH TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US 24. RECENT SWODY1 OUTLOOK PULLED MUCH OF THE AREA OUT
OF SLGT RISK. WHILE OVERALL RISK MAY BE REDUCED
SOMEWHAT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL STILL
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT SEE HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

GIVEN ABOVE ISSUES...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD 3 TO
5 DEGREES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY WITH TIME AS CLEARING
TREND BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ONGOING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING. SFC FRONT/TROF AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOWER LAKE MI
THROUGH KANSAS CITY...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.

IN THIS PERIOD...MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED THE APPROXIMATE
INTENSITY AND ORIENTATION OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION...HOWEVER NONE
HAVE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT CORRECT. ALL THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE
3 TO 9 HOURS TOO SLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...TOOK A BLEND OF MODELS
AND SHIFTED GRIDS FORWARD A FEW HOURS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AND EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR PULSE TYPE AND OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STILL FAVORS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. FREEZING LEVEL IS
LOWER TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THIS WOULD FAVOR
ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. LIMITED SHEAR AND THIS WOULD FAVOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

EXPECT COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO SPREAD CWA-WIDE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...

GIVEN ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING
GRIDS AND WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH DRY FORECAST THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK. ACTIVE W/NWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL RIDGE TOPPING DISTURBANCE BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING AND HOW FAR SE EACH WILL PROPAGATE. BEST CHANCE AT ANY PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE IN TUES/WEDS TIMEFRAME AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND SEMI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED NEAR THE AREA. COULD SEE
THE POSSIBILITY OF HAVING TO ADD LOW POPS IN THE FUTURE BUT WILL
REMAIN WITH DRY FORECAST GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
TENDENCY OF MODELS TO OVERDO MOISTURE FIELDS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RISING
BACK INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BY END OF THE PERIOD BUT TEMPS WILL HINGE ON ANY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP FROM DISTURBANCES RIDING THE RIDGE. HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...OBERGFELL
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

947 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND DRY...HOWEVER
AM KEEPING A WATCHFUL EYE ON SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN SD.
IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...HIGHER MLCAPE AND K INDEX WITH LOWER MLCINH.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALSO INCREASES FARTHER EAST TO KEEP ORGANIZATION IF
IT SUSTAINS ITSELF. MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A TURN TO
THE SE EVENTUALLY IF IT KEEPS GOING AS WELL. RAP 310K ISENT SURFACE
DEPICTS SERN MN AS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RELATIVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX. UPSTREAM
OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED NW LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
BY RECENT STANDARDS IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS IOWA DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. DEW POINTS IN THE RIDGE ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AS
WELL...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RETURNING
TO NW IOWA...SO DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S THERE.
FLOW ALOFT IS STILL FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
TO OUR WEST. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING SOME SHALLOW YET HIGH-BASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER
THAT AREA. CLOUDS 12-15 THOUSAND FEET MAY SPILL INTO NORTHERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR A SIMILAR THEME OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THOUGH COOLER TODAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT HEAT SHOULD RETURN
SOUTHWEST HALF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE GENERALLY UNABATED
THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. IN THE EAST THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT A
DAY LATER AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS ABOUT THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT FROM TIME TO
TIME AND WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...THE GENERAL TRENDS REMAIN
THE SAME. HAVE OPTED...AS EARLIER DISCUSSED...TO NOT PUT THE FAR
NORTH IN ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT THERE MAY BE A 24 TO 48 HOUR
PERIOD THAT NEEDS AT LEAST AN ADV HEADLINE UP NORTH. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED H850 TEMPS...MIXING AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WE SHOULD
EASILY TOP 100 FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND COME
CLOSE AT TIMES TO 95 OR SO IN THE FAR NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN THE
WILD CARD. IF THE FRONT APPROACHES THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE BUT CLOUDS MAY ALSO INCREASE. THE TWO
SHOULD OFFSET EACH OTHER AND OVERALL THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR
IN EITHER CASE. WARNING IS DEFINITELY WARRANTED FOR THE DURATION AND
EXPECTED HIGHS OVER THE NEXT DAYS. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO WED
NIGHT/THURS...THE GEM/GFS SO FAR HAVE DROPPED THE FRONT SOUTH OF
IOWA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER H850 TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND NORTHEAST.
THIS TREND WAS NOTED ON TUESDAY...BUT WENT AWAY IN THE MODELS 24
HOURS AGO. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY PENETRATE THE AREA AND IF THE RIDGE
IS FINALLY RELAXES FOR MORE THAN JUST A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. THIS
IS KEY TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND THE REASON THE HEAT WARNINGS
END MID EVENING WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. IF THERE ARE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES COMING UP IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AREAL OUTLINE WILL BE
MODIFIED. NEW 12Z EURO JUST IN AND TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOTTEST AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE WITH
US FROM MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...ALL OF TUESDAY...AND A GOOD SHARE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO INCREASES PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WE MAY VERY WELL INDEED SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND
LOWER HUMIDITY...FOR NOW WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. WITH
WESTERLIES INCREASING...SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING. MORE
DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.

.AVIATION...21/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN PERIODS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT NRN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO NRN IA OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL AND NOT INCLUDED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SLY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1PM SAT TO 9PM WED
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MARION-MONROE-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-
TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1PM SUN TO 9PM WED
BLACK HAWK-BUTLER-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-
POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO-WRIGHT

UPDATE/AVIATION...SMALL
SHORT TERM...JUNGBLUTH
LONG TERM...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

536 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN PLACE WITH ITS MAIN AXIS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND EAST TOWARDS
THE KS CO BORDER.

WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE SURFACE TROUGHS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A VERY
STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL...SO I HAVE KEPT ANY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW.

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAIN CONCERN IS NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING AIRMASS SLIGHTLY ALOFT THAN TODAY...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WITH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. IF RH VALUES WERE
TO DROP TO 10 PERCENT IN THE WEST THEN WE COULD MEET CRITERIA.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
PLANNED FOR SATURDAY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 100 TO 110 RANGE WITH APPARENT TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 103 TO 108 RANGE. AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HAD CONSIDERED UPGRADING AT
LEAST FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICIES BUT THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR DEW POINTS WILL MIX EACH
AFTERNOON. IF THEY ARE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...APPARENT
TEMP VALUES WOULD BE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER. FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN
KEEPING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE AND ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO
REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORM. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 105 FROM WEST TO EAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS
OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING A DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DAILY RECORDS FOR SATURDAY (JUL 21)...
GOODLAND.....105 (2005)
HILL CITY....110 (1934)
BURLINGTON...103 (2005)
MCCOOK.......105 (2005)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........106

DAILY RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (JUL 22)...
GOODLAND.....105 (1934)
HILL CITY....108 (1934)
BURLINGTON...104 (1990)
MCCOOK.......110 (1931)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-
029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...BULLER
CLIMATE...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

348 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS TO
55 MPH MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTH/DIMINISHING IN THE ABSENCE OF HEATING.

A MORE SUBSIDENT REGIME IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE H5
RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE H85-H7 THERMAL
RIDGE/INCREASE IN THICKNESS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES
WITH VALUES IN THE 105-109 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED. DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT HEAT INDICES WILL STILL MANAGE TO CLIMB TO
AROUND 105+ DEGREES AT TIMES. THEREFORE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
EXPANDED THROUGH TUESDAY.

WED-THU...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL/POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THERE MAY BE A
TEMPORARY BREAK DOWN OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. IF THE RIDGE DOES TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN IT MAY
BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED SO ONLY A SUBTLE TREND DOWN IN TEMPERATURES
WAS INTRODUCED ON THU.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

TOUGH CONVECTIVE FORECAST. STORMS HAVE LINGERED ALONG A COUPLE OF
WEAK BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS. LATEST RUC
SEEMS HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND VERY SHORT
TERM TRENDS THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS KEEPS BOUNDARY NORTH OF
KICT/KCNU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING AND THEN WILL BLEND INTO
NAM AS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. OF NOTE RUC SHUTS
DOWN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BY 2100 UTC. -HOWERTON

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 75 106 75 105 / 20 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 76 105 75 103 / 20 10 10 0
NEWTON 78 104 78 103 / 20 10 10 0
ELDORADO 76 104 76 102 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 107 78 105 / 30 10 10 0
RUSSELL 71 105 71 107 / 10 0 10 0
GREAT BEND 73 105 72 106 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 74 105 74 105 / 10 10 10 0
MCPHERSON 72 104 73 104 / 20 10 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 78 104 78 103 / 30 10 10 10
CHANUTE 77 101 76 100 / 20 10 10 10
IOLA 75 100 76 101 / 20 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 77 102 77 102 / 30 10 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1235 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH KCNU LIKELY DIRECTLY AFFECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST 14-15Z...IF NOT LATER. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ERRATIC & GUSTY WINDS
IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN KS ALONG A NEARLY
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSERTED VCSH FOR KHUT-KICT-KCNU AFTER
20Z AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE QUITE ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY UPGRADE TO VCTS. STALLED BOUNDARY
STRADDLING SOUTHERN KS WILL MAKE WIND FORECASTING CHALLENGING AT
KHUT-KICT-KCNU...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

KLEINSASSER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE FLINT HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
A WEAK PV-ANOMALY CONTINUES TO PUSH GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST EARLY
TODAY...WITH SOME FESTERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS FESTERING ACTIVITY TO MAKE INTO SOUTHEAST KS THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY WANING A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE. BUT SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BACKDOOR SOUTHWEST MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEAST KS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE CONVECTION FROM LIGHTING UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THINK AN ISOLATED STORM CHANCE LOOKS WARRANTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK CONVERGENCE INCREASE
INSTABILITY SOME WITH LIFT PROVIDED FROM THIS ANOMALY AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. SO WILL PLACE A LOW POP IN FOR THIS CHANCE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVE.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED HEAT WAVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TODAY JUST AS HOT AS YESTERDAY...AS SFC
WINDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY MIX OUT DWPTS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 105 FOR
KICT/KRSL AND KGBD. THE BIGGER CONCERN TODAY...WILL BE INCREASED SFC
DEWPOINTS POOLING JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS
TO A POSITION FROM NEAR KCNU TO KSLN. THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER DWPTS WILL
LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 108 TODAY. SO CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY CERTAINLY LOOKS FINE...AS TODAY WILL FEEL MORE HUMID AND
HOT.

FRI-WED:
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE THE CONTINUED STIFLING HEAT. PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP WITH A PERSISTENCE-TYPE FORECAST WITH THE
PATTERN LOOKING LIKE IT WILL STAY AROUND WITH HIGHS IN THE 100-105
RANGE AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SUGGEST
THAT THIS UPPER RIDGE MAY FLATTEN OUT SOME FOR TUE OR WED OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS HOLD THE RIDGE IN STRONG. SO UNTIL RIDGE
SHOWS DEFINITE SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...WILL KEEP BANGING THE HOT
AND DRY DRUM. NOT GONNA MESS WITH THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL SUN...AS THIS LOOKS GOOD. BUT THE
PROLONGED HEAT BY THE WEEKEND...MAY TIP US OVER INTO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT SITUATION.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
TERMINALS DRAWING GREATEST ATTENTION ARE KSLN & KRSL WHERE SCT TSRA
CAPABLE OF 35-40KT GUSTS CONTINUE TO FESTER ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED
FRONT. A FEW CELLS MAY FESTER OVER THESE AREAS TIL ~07Z. AS SUCH MAY
ASSIGN "VCTS" TO BOTH TERMINALS DURING FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF. WITH THE
FRONT IN THESE AREAS WIND DIRECTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE FOR THE
REST OF THE NGT/EARLY THU MORNING. OTHERWISE ALL 5 TERMINALS TO REMAIN
IN VFR STATUS FOR DURATION OF 06Z TAF CYCLE. ~ES

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 105 76 106 77 / 20 20 10 10
HUTCHINSON 105 77 104 76 / 20 20 10 10
NEWTON 104 79 103 77 / 20 20 10 10
ELDORADO 104 77 104 76 / 50 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 104 79 107 78 / 20 20 10 10
RUSSELL 105 72 106 75 / 10 10 0 10
GREAT BEND 105 74 106 75 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 106 75 105 77 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 105 73 104 77 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 104 79 103 77 / 50 20 10 10
CHANUTE 102 78 100 76 / 70 20 10 10
IOLA 102 76 100 76 / 70 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 103 78 102 77 / 50 20 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

135 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

Updated the forecast to refresh grids with latest hourly data and
increase POPs to 50% quicker this morning. Already have storms
firing over the area in a warm soupy airmass. A couple different
boundaries were noted over central IN/OH moving southward this
morning. One of note was rather a lengthy boundary stretching from
western Ohio to southern Indiana to southern IL to southeast MO.
These boundaries will play a crucial role providing a focus for
convective initiation/location today. They`ve already sparked
storms near Jefferson Co, IN and Trimble Co, KY. The HRRR model
seems to be handling convection the best this morning and for the
past several days. According to the latest 10Z run, we should see 2
or 3 notable rounds of convection today. At least one during the
early afternoon hours and another this evening. There could be a
third round in between or possibly late this evening.

.Short Term (Today - Friday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

...Hot and Humid Followed by Another Round of Strong to Severe
Storms Today...

Current radar imagery shows convective complex that had looked
impressive over southeast Indiana earlier falling apart as it moves
into our less favorable environment. Will continue mention of
diminishing coverage of showers and storms across southeast IN to
the Bluegrass through dawn. Elsewhere, cannot rule out an isolated
shower or storm with moist airmass still in place and remnant
outflow boundaries wandering around.

We`ll set the stage for another hot and humid day as current IR
satellite shows heavy sky cover is rapidly diminishing from earlier
storms. This will likely lead to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
by dawn and solid heating potential through at least the early
afternoon. As has been the case, temperatures are expected to
quickly rise into the solid mid 90s by early afternoon along and
west of I-65. These temperatures combined with dew points in the
lower 70s will result in heat indices peaking just above 105 degrees
for a few hours this afternoon. Have issued a Heat Advisory along
and west of I-65 to account for this. Further east, heat indices are
expected to max out in the 100-105 range and will likely issue a
special weather statement to highlight.

A look at current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave over the
upper Midwest with an associated surface low currently near the
confluence of SE Iowa, W Illinois, and NE Missouri. The surface low
is expected to move to central Indiana by this evening with
increasing deep layer flow/lift ahead of the positively tilted
shortwave. Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to increase through
the day with numerous storms by late this afternoon and evening. Our
airmass will be strongly unstable (CAPE values between 2500-3500
J/KG suggested by forecast soundings) and with the increasing deep
layer shear, better storm organization in the form of multicells and
forward propagating segments are anticipated. The main threats from
these storms will continue to be torrential rainfall, excessive
cloud to ground lightning and damaging winds. Could also see some
hail in the stronger storms. At this point, the best timing looks to
be from 3 PM to 11 PM EDT.

Scattered to numerous storm coverage will continue through the
evening and overnight hours as surface low drags a cold front to our
doorstep and trough axis remains just to our NW. Best coverage
should be in the east CWA.

Will see chances for showers and storms diminishing from northwest
to southeast through the day on Friday as cold front and trough axis
move through the region. High temperatures are tricky in this
convective and advective pattern, however a noticeable "cool" down
into the upper 80s and low 90s is on tap.

.Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

The upper trof overhead at the start of the long term will weaken
and lift out of the region over the course of Friday night and
Saturday, and will be replaced by upper ridging stretching from the
Plains to the Atlantic through early in the new week with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys in a saddle between mounds of high pressure to
our west and east. By mid week the ridge will sink south towards
the Gulf. Since we won`t be right under the heart of the ridge
during this time, we will escape extreme heat and will not be able
to rule out scattered diurnal thunderstorm development -- both good
things for our drought-weary region.

As is typical for this time of year, surface features are weak and
amorphous. It looks like, though, the weak cool front that came
through the area in the short term will sag slowly south of Kentucky
Friday night/Saturday. High pressure to our southeast will weakly
try to build in by Monday, but then another weak cool front will
approach from the northwest during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

The best chances for rain will be in the form of scattered storms
that can pop in the heat of the afternoon over southern Kentucky
Saturday-Monday, and then hopefully more widespread coverage
throughout the region by Wednesday as that front comes in from the
northwest.

High temperatures over the weekend look to be in the upper 80s and
lower 90s, and then in the lower and middle 90s for Monday through
Wednesday...with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows
will be around 70 Saturday morning and in the lower and middle 70s
for the rest of the long term.

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

An upper level trough moving through the area as well as multiple
sfc boundaries will cause on and off chances of t-storms this
afternoon and tonight. According to the latest 12Z NAM and 13Z HRRR
models, scattered convection near SDF/LEX looks likely this
afternoon with t-storm chances increasing this evening at BWG. It
is hard to nail down timing of storms and have left VCTS in for a
good period this afternoon and evening. Will need to refine reduced
flight conditions (MVFR or IFR) and winds as t-storms approach the
TAF sites. Outside of any t-storms late this afternoon/evening, sfc
winds will become gusty out of the SW on approach of the main upper
level trough and sfc front. The best chance of widespread storms
looks to be associated with these features between 0Z and 6Z this
evening.

After 6Z to 9Z storms should exit the TAF sites with lingering
showers possible. NAM soundings and MOS guidance indicates low cigs
(MVFR) moving in behind the main convection lasting through the
morning hours. The main wind shift (WSW to NW) with the main sfc
front will occur near the very end of this TAF period between
15-19Z tomorrow.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>032-061-062-070>072.

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1024 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

.Short Term (Today - Friday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

...Hot and Humid Followed by Another Round of Strong to Severe
Storms Today...

.Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

An upper level impulse combined with a surface low moving into
southern Indiana will help to spark numerous afternoon/evening
showers and storms. Some of the storms are expected to be strong to
severe with torrential rains, excessive cloud to ground lightning,
and damaging winds being the main threats. Certainly, conditions
will go MVFR or worse within any thunderstorm. Best timing appears
to be from 3 PM EDT to 11 PM EDT, although there will be chances for
storms through the end of the forecast period. Surface winds will
gradually veer to a southwesterly component today, increasing to
around 10 mph by mid afternoon. Winds will continue to veer
overnight with a cool frontal passage during the first half of the
day on Friday.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>032-061-062-070>072.

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

324 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL INCH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY...CONTINUING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN NJ TO THE NC PIEDMONT PER 18Z RAP SFC
ANALYSIS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NORTH OF
ANNAPOLIS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THROUGH 4PM EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN SRN MD
AND N-CNTRL MD.

AS OF 19Z...WIDE SWATH OF STRONG-NOT-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SFC LOW STRETCH FROM WRN PA TO NERN KY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST...ON TRACK TO PUSH EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY 6PM. WHAT
WILL HAPPEN EAST FROM THERE IS MORE UNCERTAIN. INTENSITY WILL
CERTAINLY DIMINISH UPON CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. MODERATE CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO BE
MAINTAINED AS IT SHIFTS EAST. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO IN THE 9PM TO MIDNIGHT
TIMEFRAME /WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS BALTIMORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
APPROACHING SFC LOW. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE BETTER WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THERE IS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS WITH SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL
PWATS RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES. THE PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND A LOW MOVING PERPENDICULAR TO
THEM COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SHOULD THREAT AREAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED...EVENING SHIFT MAY CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S...UPR 70S URBAN.

FRIDAY...SECONDARY SFC LOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC WITH PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY...WENT
CATEGORICAL FOR THE AFTERNOON CONSIDERING LOW PLACEMENT OVER CNTRAL
VA AND DIURNAL TRENDS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 80S /UPR 80S SOUTH OF
LOW...INVOF KCHO/ UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP. PWATS REMAIN HIGH
SO BUMPED UP QPF TO IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH...LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
PROVIDING A GOOD MOISTURE FLUX.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOPRES PASSES S OF CWFA FRI EVE...PLACING AREA W/IN ZN OF STRONG
LLVL ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW. H8 FLOW WLY...MAKING FOR A GOOD
OVERRUNNING SETUP. PWAT AOA 2IN...EMPHASIZING PCPN POTL. AM CARRYING
CAT POPS NE OF HGR-DCA-XSA...BUT TRANSITIONING AWAY FM THUNDER TWD
RAIN DUE TO INCRSG MDL STABILITY.

THE CDFNT /MARKING THE TRANSITION BTWN STBL AND UNSTBL AIR/ REMAINS
ACRS CWFA SAT. GIVEN THE CONTD ELY FLOW INVOF A WK BNDRY...NEED TO
KEEP POPS IN THE FCST THRU THE DAY. HV SEPARATED THE S /TSRA/ FM THE
REST OF THE CWFA /-SHRA/. FM THE STANDPOINT OF PCPN PROCESSES...MAY
ALMOST BE ABLE TO MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR -RA INSTEAD.

BNDRY SAGS SWD A PINCH SAT NGT...BUT STILL HV IMPULSES RIDING ALONG
IT. THEREFORE...NEED TO KEEP CHC SHRA RUNNING THRU ANOTHER NGT...
PRIMARILY CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.

RDGG AND SLGTLY DRIER AIR BUMPS SWD SUN MRNG. BUT THERE/S STILL
MODEST INSTBY W/IN THE COLUMN /SUBZERO LI AND SVRL HND JOULES
CAPE/...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DIURNAL ACTIVITY PSBL. THAT WUD DEPEND
ON CHARACTER OF H8-5 TROF AXIS...WHICH GDNC DRAWING A LTL SHAKY
ATTM. AM NOT SURE IF WE/D BE W/IN A SUBSIDENT RGN. HENCE...20-30 PCT
POPS /TSRA/ RTN FOR SUN AFTN.

THRUT THIS PD...MOS GDNC W/IN A CPL DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WL GOING FCST. THEREFORE...HV BLENDED NEW GDNC IN
W/ A LTL BIT OF PRVS FCST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 TROF AXIS PERSISTS ALONG EASTERN CONUS/ATLC COAST MON-TUE. AS
S/WV ENERGY DROPS INTO THE TROF AXIS MON NGT-TUE MRNG...IT/LL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA. PRIMARILY DIURNAL SCHC/CHC
POPS THRUT.

HIPRES/SUBSIDENCE PROGGED TO BLD BHD THAT WED. IT/S STILL TBD
WHETHER THIS TIME THE FNT WL BE ABLE TO CLR AREA...OR IT TOO STALLS
OUT NEARBY. ATTM WL RUN OPTIMISTICALLY...PLACING A 36 HR DRY PD W/IN
DATABASE BEFORE WE CREEP BACK TWD CLIMO /20-30 PCT CHC TSTMS/ ON DAY
7.

PER TEMPS...MAXT LWR 90S...XCPT FOR UPR 80S WED BHD FNT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS/IFR CONDS CONTINUES THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MVFR TO LCL IFR W/IN MOSTLY WDLY SCT TSTMS. PCPN WL BE MOST PROLIFIC
/NMRS-DEF/ FRI NGT...WHEN CHARACTER WL BE TRANSITIONING TWD RAIN.
MOST OF THE TIME WL BE VFR THO. ELY MRNG BR ALSO A CONSIDERATION.
&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS/ AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS CONTINUES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

ELY FLOW AND A PASSING IMPULSE FRI NGT WL SUPPORT NMRS SHRA. BYD
THAT...A BNDRY WL BE STALLED NEARBY. SCHC/CHC TSRA DAILY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/HTS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

104 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY DOWN TO THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT PER RAP SFC ANALYSIS...N-NWLY FLOW...AND ECHOES OFF SRN
JERSEY SHORE AND IN LEE OF BLUE RIDGE IN NC. IT WOULD SEEM ANY
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE LWX
CWA WOULD BE ALONG THIS ZONE. HOWEVER...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
PRETTY ANEMIC THUS FAR FOR THE LWX CWA. THEREFORE REMOVED LIKELY
POPS FOR BALT-WASH UNTIL 6PM. MAIN FOCUS IS THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIME OF
ARRIVAL TOOL SUGGESTS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT AROUND 5PM. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST WITH
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS BREAKING THE CAP.

MAX TEMPS ON TRACK FOR LOW 90S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR NRN VA
AND N-CNTRL MD.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
INTERACTION OF APPROACHING S/W AND BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA AND
WEAK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LWX CWA.
MODERATE SBCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL ALLOW LOCALIZED SEVERE
ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN THREAT. THUNDER THREAT
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER LULL PERIOD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP. A STRENGTHENING UPPER VORT WILL
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...TRUDGING ACROSS A BULK OF PA INTO
THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. AN ALSO STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH WILL HALT
THE PROGRESS OF THIS UPPER WAVE UPON REACHING THE MID ATLC. A LIGHT
SLY FLOW FRI MRNG WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGH...WELL INTO
THE L70S - SO HUMIDITY WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER.

THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED W/ THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SEWD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE MRNG/AFTN. NORTH OF
THE LOW...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE AND MUCH COOLER -
AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. SOUTH OF THE
LOW...EVEN W/ MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
80S/L90S AND CREATE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL LIKELY
BE UTILIZED BY THE INCOMING SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE CHANCES DECREASE OF
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH AS THE LOW TRACKS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SRN TIER COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.
STABILIZING ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NJ/DELMARVA AND
TURN ANY LINGERING TSTMS INTO A MORE GENERAL LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN
HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.

AN INTERESTING CHANGE OF PACE FROM THE TYPICAL WX PATTERNS WE`VE
SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. W/ THE UPPER LOW SLOWING-DOWN OR
NEARLY STALLING OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT...CREATING FAIRLY HIGH
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT. MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DISSIPATED BY THEN...BUT POCKETS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO SAT MRNG.

MUCH OF THE FORCING THAT CAME W/ THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GET
STREWN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BANKING OF N-NELY FLOW INTO THE LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SAT THAN SUN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND CNTRL APLCNS ON SUN...AS NELY FLOW
FURTHER STABILIZES THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MAIN STORY
THOUGH WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SAT AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUN.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO
ARRIVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL SLIDE
THRU W/ A LITTLE MORE FORCE THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW AND PUSH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND AWAY
FROM THE ATLC COAST. NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA QUIET AND BACK
TOWARD AVERAGE IN TERMS OF DAILY HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH NOW S OF DC METROS AS INDICATED BY NNWLY FLOW. AREA
REMAINS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE LINKED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...WITH A
SHIFT TO THE EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT /INITIALLY
MRB...BWI...MTN/ OVERNIGHT AND A SOUTHWEST WIND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE EASTERLY WIND MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH ON FRI. SOME TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE
EARLY AFTN HRS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEHIND THE
ACCOMPANYING LOW...NELY WINDS WILL PUSH IN ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS FRI. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SAT BUT LARGELY
DISSIPATE BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH PLENTY OF ACTIVITY WON`T BE TOO FAR
AWAY - W/ A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE NW.

.MARINE...
LIGHT NLY FLOW FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS CROSSED THE MD PORTION
OF THE BAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE LOW...NELY FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CREATE SOME PERIODIC
10-15KT GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN-MIDDLE DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY
AND LIGHT S-SWLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA.

.CLIMATE...
DCA...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY REACHED 101F. THE DAILY RECORD WAS
103 SET IN 1887. A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 80 DEGREES WAS
SET...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 79 SET IN 2002.

INCLUDING WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH TEMP HAS REACHED OR EXCEEDED 95F ON
18 DAYS AND 100F ON 7 DAYS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WHICH ARE BOTH THE
MOST ON RECORD THROUGH 18 JUL AT DCA. PRIOR TO THIS YEAR...THE MOST
95-DEGREE AND 100-DEGREE DAYS THROUGH 18 JUL WAS 16 IN 1991 AND 5 IN
1988...RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST 95-DEGREE AND 100-DEGREE DAYS ON
RECORD THAT OCCURRED IN A CALENDAR YEAR WAS 28 IN 1980 AND 11 IN
1930...RESPECTIVELY.

BWI...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY REACHED 104F. THIS BROKE A 125 YR OLD
DAILY RECORD - 102 SET IN 1887.

INCLUDING WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH TEMP HAS REACHED OR EXCEEDED 95F ON
17 DAYS AND 100F ON 6 DAYS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WHICH ARE BOTH THE
MOST ON RECORD THROUGH 18 JUL AT BWI. PRIOR TO THIS YEAR...THE MOST
95-DEGREE AND 100-DEGREE DAYS THROUGH 18 JUL WAS 14 IN 1988 AND 5 IN
1988 AND 2010...RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST 95-DEGREE AND 100-DEGREE DAYS
ON RECORD THAT OCCURRED IN A CALENDAR YEAR WAS 23 IN 1991 AND 7 IN
BOTH 1988 AND 2010...RESPECTIVELY.

IAD...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY REACHED 101F...WHICH IS A NEW DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE OLD RECORD WAS 100F SET IN 1969 AND 1986.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS
CLIMATE...LWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

707 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012/
UNFORTUNATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS LED TO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST SOME MINOR READJUSTMENTS IN THE PRECIP
GRIDS.IN SUMMARY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAINED ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL US WITH RECORD BREAKING HEAT TAKING ITS TOLL ACROSS THE
CORNBELT. CLOSER TO HOME...ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
IMMEDIATELY IDENTIFY THE STATIONARY RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FROM DOWN
IN ARIZONA DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...UP
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND FINALLY OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY A FEW SINGLE CELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FESTER IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MN CLOSER
TO A COLD FRONT/PARENT TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS ALLOWED MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 TO POOL AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST FLOW IS LEADING TO EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KTS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A FEW SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MN...BUT
SOME STRONGER CELLS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN
WI. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THEY DIVE SOUTHEAST. FOR TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD...AND WHERE IT EXACTLY STALLS OUT WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER H850 TEMPS
WILL ALLOW SURFACE READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S DOWN SOUTH THE I-80 CORRIDOR. FORTUNATELY THIS HEAT WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME MID 90S NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL STILL BE TIED TO THE BOUNDARY...SO COULDNT GO COMPLETELY
DRY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO DAYS 4-7...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON UPSLOPE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS TRY TO PICK UP ON
THESE WAVES...BUT HAVE LITTLE LUCK IN AGREEING ON ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. THEREFORE STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES.
UNFORTUNATELY THE END RESULT IS A LUKE WARM FORECAST LITTERED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LATEST
MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORT WAVE IS NOW IN NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO EASTERN MONTANA...WITH SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD
OF THIS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OR ENTERING WEST CENTRAL MN AROUND 05Z...THOUGH IT
IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE AS EARLY AS 03Z. STORMS SHOULD REACH WESTERN
WISCONSIN AROUND 08Z-09Z.

OTHERWISE THE OTHER QUESTION IS WIND DIRECTION. FRONT JUST PASSED THROUGH
FARGO BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z. IT LOOKS TO BE SLOW MOVING BUT THE
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM OUTFLOW REACHING
SOUTHERN MN AND KRNH BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING THE WIND SHIFT
IS BELOW AVERAGE.

KMSP... CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE BEGINS AROUND 09Z
BUT WILL NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME STORMS DEVELOP NOT TOO FAR WEST OR
NORTH OF KMSP AS EARLY AS 06Z OR 07Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDER BUT
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR IS BELOW AVERAGE. THEREFORE HAVE FORECAST
CEILING/VSBY JUST ABOVE MVFR. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT COULD ALSO BE
OFF BY TWO OR THREE HOURS... SINCE THE FRONT IS NOT BEING PUSHED
SOUTH BY A STRONG DEFINITIVE FEATURE AND COULD EASILY BE A BIT
FASTER/SLOWER DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM STORMS.

OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED... BUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$
JB/TK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1127 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FOR US OVER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO REIGN OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT... WITH
CHANCES FOR PCPN AND SLIGHT COOL DOWNS TIED TO SHORTWAVES MOVING
THEIR WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SO ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE WRONG IT IS TOUGH TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM
WHAT THEY ARE SHOWING WITH RESPECT TO THE BIG PICTURE. WILL STICK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR SOME OF THE DETAILS... MAINLY DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL COOL/WET BIASES IN THE GFS AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
ASSOCIATED WET BIAS. IN THE SHORTER TERM... UTILIZED THE NAM AND
SREF FOR POP/WEATHER CHANCES AND A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR
TEMPERATURES... BLENDING WITH POTENTIAL MIX-DOWN VALUES FOR HIGHS.

AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL PV ANALYSES EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. A LOWER LEVEL MCV FEATURE CAN ALSO
BE SEEN MOVING EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LATTER
FEATURE IS WORKING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA... WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION ASSISTING WITH THINGS OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE LARGER SCALE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER... AND SHOULD HELP TO FURTHER FOCUS
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE
SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES AOA
2000 J/KG ARE PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA... SO THERE IS NO
SHORTAGE OF INSTABILITY. WITH SOME FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... THINK WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SHRA/TSRA UNTIL WE SEE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY... BUT WITH THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT... THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF EXPECTED
ORGANIZATION WITH MOST STORMS. HOWEVER... A FEW STORMS COULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR OWING TO THEIR STORM MOTION...
SUCH AS SOME OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
AND THOSE WOULD BE THE STORMS MOST LIKELY TO GENERATE SEVERE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT... BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA TO
AN END. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN THEN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT... THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWFA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE
AREA. THESE CHANCES WILL THEN SAG SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A WAVE TRAVELS EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL... AFTER DRYING THINGS OUT LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGESTING
WE WILL BE NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/RING OF FIRE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND EARLY THU MORNING
AS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ACROSS NW WI/NE MN MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
EASTERN/CENTRAL MN OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS. AFT 18Z...NO
CONCERNS AS VFR WX SHOULD CONTINUE THRU 06Z/20.

SFC OBS/VIS FG SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED THAT A BAND OF IFR
CIGS...ROUGHLY 50-75SM WIDE...CONTINUED TO MOVE SW ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THRU...MVFR/VFR CIGS DEVELOP AS DRIER AIR
FROM THE NE PART OF MN MOVES SW ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...USUALLY LCL/S LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS TO CONTINUE. THIS IS WHAT THE CURRENT RAP
INDICATES ON THE LATEST MODEL RUN. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS WIND SPDS
SEEM TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL PRECLUDE FG/BR FORMATION...AND MAYBE ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO
FILTER FASTER INTO THE FA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST FOR AXN/STC/RWF THRU 12Z...WITH RNH/MSP/EAU WORSE IN
TERMS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. ONCE THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER FROM THE
NE...OR THE TYPICAL DAYTIME MIXING DEVELOPS...CIGS SHOULD AT
LEAST LIFT TO MVFR BY 15-18Z...THEN MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N/NE
OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE E/NE DURING THE AFTN...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
E/SE BY EVENING.

MSP...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WORSE CONDS THRU 15Z...WITH A GENERAL
TREND OF INCREASING THE CIGS TO VFR BY 17-18Z...WITH VFR DURING
THE AFTN/EVENING. STILL CONCERN ON HOW LOW THE VSBY/CIGS BECOME
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS EARLIER RAINFALL AND SFC WINDS REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC FOR FG/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN LOW MVFR
CIGS GOOD UNTIL 12Z...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTN. NO RAINFALL/TSRA EXPECTED
THRU 12Z/20.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT/FRI...VFR.
LATE FRI/SAT...VFR BUT INCREASING CHC/S OF TSRA/SHRA. ..JLT..

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

TRH/JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1253 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BEGINNING LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE EAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HOT AND DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN
FIRM CONTROL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/

UPDATE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON
TO SPALDING NEBRASKA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
BETWEEN 19/00Z-19/03Z. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY...BUT
PER LATEST GUIDANCE COULD SEE THEM CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
SPREAD IN COVERAGE AS THEY WORK EAST BEFORE SUNSET. LOWERED CIGS
IN AREAS OF SHRAS TO 5KFT...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR...BUT CERTAINLY
COULD SEE CIGS BELOW THIS IF A HEAVIER SHOWER IMPACTS KGRI.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SHRA
AND TSRA ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...BECOMING E TO SE AT LESS THAN 10KTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AFTER TONIGHTS ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THIS IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. VERY HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CU FIELD WITH
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THESE
STORMS WILL DIE PRIOR TO MAKING IT INTO OR CWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MAKE IT AS
FAR EAST AS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DIEING OUT. IT IS HARD TO
PICK OUT BOUNDARIES ON THE SFC MAP WITH THE SFC WINDS BEING VERY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
MORE DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT. THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A FEW OFF AND ON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND BELIEVE THIS COULD CONTINUE
UNTIL WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD
SHUT DOWN ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AWHILE. THEREFORE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO PUT NORTHERN ZONES IN
THE HEAT ADVISORY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE HOT TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE MAINSTAY ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CAUSE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO RISE TO 100 TO 105 FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HEAT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE HEAT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL GO MORE WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION SINCE THAT IS
TYPICAL OF THE MODELS TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH TOO QUICKLY. WILL HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 90S.

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THE BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE TERMINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE. WITH THE MEANDERING
BOUNDARY RIGHT OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW. CLEAR TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUATION OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ082>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

AVIATION...HEINLEIN
UPDATE...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL HOLD NEAR THE VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL
LEAVE A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...

AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MCV/S FROM THURSDAYS LARGE TN VALLEY MCS -- ONE
OVER SE VA AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT -- CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR NOW ONLY WEAK CONVECTION
OVER VA/NC AT PRESENT. MEANWHILE THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED H7
SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AS RECENTLY AS 00Z...PER
RAOB DATA...HAS LOST IDENTITY ACCORDING TO RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA.
THE NC SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MCV WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER AMIDST A DEEPLY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THIS UPLIFT SHOULD BE STRONGEST
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN WSW STEERING FLOW.
ONCE THIS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CLEARS THE RAH CWFA THROUGH AROUND 2
AM...THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY UNEVENTFUL. NONETHELESS...THE
SHARPENING AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED AT H25 AND
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ACTING UPON
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPLY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...
WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED AT 02Z IN BACKDOOR
ORIENTATION FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN VA...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND STALL
ALONG A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH INVOF THE VA/NC BORDER BY SAT
MORNING...WHERE IT...AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...WILL BECOME THE FOCI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ON SATURDAY. SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS OWING TO THE
EARLIER WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/RELATIVE STABILIZATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER - IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES SATURDAY...ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE
APPROACH OF TROUGHINESS ALOFT AND THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF A 60KT
UPPER JET MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE AROUND TWO INCHES...AND AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY AS THE
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EDGE CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GOOD ONCE AGAIN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DECENT ADVECTION
OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER THAN WHAT SHOULD RESULT TODAY...
LESS THAN 6C/KM EXPECTED...WITH MINIMAL DCAPE AND LESSER MLCAPE AS
WELL. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETED RULED OUT
WITH...AGAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND...PRIMARY THREAT FOR
SATURDAY SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
ACTUALLY A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE AND MOSTLY MID 80S NEAR
THE VIRGINIA BORDER TO AROUND 90 TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS SOME...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL
MOISTURE. THE GFS IS MORE MOIST OVERALL...AND WHILE LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS...WOULD ANTICIPATE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH DIURNALLY. WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...AND ANY MID-LEVEL WAVE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN 70 TO 75 DEGREES. - DJF

BY SUNDAY...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD...WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD WESTWARD...
RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BOTH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENING ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THUS...AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DIMINISHING
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO SIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. - KRR

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

OVERALL...THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND HENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE OUR MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP BEYOND
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE (TO VARYING
DEGREES) A BACK DOOR FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MIDWEEK...BUT GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF REGION FOR NOW. AS A
RESULT...SINCE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT...AM EXPECTING MOSTLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE PRECIP EACH DAY. THE HEAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY LOW 90S ON MONDAY TRENDING TO
THE MID (MAYBE UPPER) 90S TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM FRIDAY...

THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL NC TERMINAL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HAVE NEARLY DIMINISHED...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT FAY
THROUGH 06Z. OF NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT... GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND RAIN AT OR NEAR
ALL TERMINALS. THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO
LIMIT FOG TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BUT THE HRRR MODEL EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION OUTPUT SUPPORTS
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BASED BELOW 2 THOUSAND FT AGL
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF CIGS BETWEEN 800 AND 1200 FT AGL
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK... WITH MVFR VSBYS.
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND UPDATE THE FORECASTS IF ANY CLEARING DEVELOPS
THAT WOULD FAVOR EVEN LOWER STRATUS FORMATION WITHIN THE VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
IN SW FLOW BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY... BUT THE VERY MOIST AIR IN
PLACE WILL FACILITATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS.

LOOKING BEYOND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING... AS A WARM HUMID AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALMOST DAILY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SOME OR ALL FORECAST SITES... ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAT WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY... THUS THE STORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. -GIH

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...DJF/KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1012 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM FRIDAY...

THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL NC TERMINAL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HAVE BEGUN TO WIND DOWN...
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL PERSIST NEAR GSO/INT THROUGH 03Z... AND SHOWERS
PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL CENTRAL NC FORECAST
SITES THROUGH 06Z. OF NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT... GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND RAIN AT
OR NEAR ALL TERMINALS. BUT THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH
TO LIMIT FOG TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HRRR MODEL EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION OUTPUT SUPPORTS AREAS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BASED AROUND 3 THOUSAND FT AGL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS... AND POSSIBLE LOWER STRATUS WEST OF THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT... SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THE HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND UPDATE THE FORECASTS IF ANY
CLEARING DEVELOPS THAT WOULD FAVOR LOW STRATUS FORMATION WITHIN THE
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND MIX
OUT IN SW FLOW BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY... BUT THE VERY MOIST AIR IN
PLACE WILL FACILITATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...DJF/KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

808 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN A REGIME WHERE THE MLCAPE WAS APPROACHING 2000J/KG ON
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND APPARENTLY NEAR A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHEAR AXIS WAS NOTED WEAKLY ON THE
700MB 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS...THOUGH ORIENTED AT THAT TIME WEAKLY
WEST TO EAST. EVENING CHALLENGE IS HOW THIS DEEP CONVECTION WILL
INFLUENCE...IF ANY...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST. LATER HRRR
WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REMNANT MCV MOVING FROM UPSTREAM ACROSS
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS...CLOSER TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER AS OPPOSED TO NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS WOULD PLACE THE WAVE FARTHER
NORTH...ALBEIT WEAK. 0-6KM SHEAR HAS STARTED TO INCREASE...AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT INCREASING CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SHEAR NOTED ON MSAS WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MID-AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION. HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS CATEGORICAL
FOR THE EVENING WITH THIS ISSUANCE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN
LOCATION. SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES...MOSTLY PULSE OR MULTICELLULAR
IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT 0-3KM HELICITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
BELOW 100M2/S2...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AS THE
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SUCH VALUES RISE JUST ABOVE
100M2/S2. BY THAT TIME...ANY STORMS SHOULD START TO BECOME MORE
ELEVATED.

OVERNIGHT...THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE FORECAST BY THE
NAM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE MCV EXITING BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES...WARMEST TOWARD KFAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM FRIDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

637 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE TODAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND
THEN STALL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED AROUND
WILMINGTON EARLIER...BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THINK THE FEW
SHOWERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP
LAND AREAS DRY THIS MORNING AS AREA OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS/NAM AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE FAIRLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE NSSL 4 KM WRF...WHICH HAS DONE QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN
ABOUT 19Z AND 01Z TONIGHT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP OVER AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR ISOLATED
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A DEGREE OR TWO TOO
WARM OF LATE...SO AGAIN MOST AREAS WILL FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF 90 TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF THIS
MORNING AS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA WILL AGAIN
MOVE UP THE COAST AND TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF HATTERAS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONTINUED SSW/SW FLOW...ANOTHER
WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM 75 TO
80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BROAD SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON FRI...THOUGH UPR
HTS WILL FALL JUST A BIT IN RESPONSE TO CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. BACKED
OFF ON POPS A BIT ON FRI...AS LATEST RUN OF MODELS KEEP ORGANIZED
LIFT WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
HERE. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FRI
NIGHT AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IN PLACE...THOUGH ORGANIZED RAIN
WILL STILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF E NC CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST BET FOR RECEIVING THUNDERSHOWERS AS THE
APPROACHING COOL FRONT REACHES THE VA BORDER. KEPT LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN FA CLOSER TO THE FORCING...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
NEAR THE COAST. ANY FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...AS BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRONT BEGINS TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND LIFT NORTH SUNDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH
WINS BATTLE AND BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD...SO THUNDERSHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND CONVECTION WILL BE MORE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON VARIETY TIED TO SEABREEZE PROPAGATING INLAND.

BROAD NW FLOW REGIME TAKES HOLD BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
PRECLUDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
DESPITE A VERY HUMID AIRMASS. MODELS INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR THE SEA BREEZE...THUS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF VICINITY TSTM
LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT
WITH AGAIN THE SOUTHWEST BREEZE KEEPING THE LOW-LEVELS WELL MIXED.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 330 AM THUR...MAINLY VFR ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS INLAND LOCALES. BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSHOWERS ON
SAT AS COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR THE VA BORDER...
KEEPING KEEPING BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN THUNDERSHOWERS PRODUCING REDUCED VSBYS.
MAY BE SOME FG/BR AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE
RAIN.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...INITIATED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET A BIT EARLIER GIVEN COMBINED
SEAS OF 6 FEET FROM BOTH THE DIAMOND BUOY AND THE BUOY 30 MILES SE
OF NEW RIVER INLET. AN EARLIER SURGE HAS SUBSIDED BUT STILL SEEING
SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS IN THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 22
KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND 21 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 30 MILES SE
OF NEW RIVER INLET. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 FEET IN THE
ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 330 AM THUR...SW WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS COOL FRONT REMAINS AROUND THE VA BORDER. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT WILL REMAIN
AROUND THE 15 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SW SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COULD SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE
MON AS SW GRADIENT GETS PINCHED ONCE AGAIN DUE TO BUILDING PIEDMONT
HEAT TROUGH.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

346 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK CENTER OF VORTICITY MOVING UP THE COAST IS ON A
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL KEEP IT OFFSHORE AND HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHC POPS OVER LAND...BUT CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER.
THE GFS/NAM AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NSSL 4 KM
WRF...WHICH HAS DONE QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
INDICATES SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN ABOUT 19Z AND
01Z TONIGHT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A DEGREE OR TWO TOO
WARM OF LATE...SO AGAIN MOST AREAS WILL FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF 90 TODAY.

BROAD NW FLOW REGIME TAKES HOLD BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN.

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 1 AM THURSDAY...PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE KEY WORD IN THE
AVIATION FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED
WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG
OVERNIGHT. APPROACHING SHRT WV FROM NW WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT THU AFTN...MAINLY FROM NW TO SE...AND INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS ALL SITES AFT 20Z.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...AS EXPECTED THE NOCTURNAL SURGE HAS EASED
A BIT...BUT STILL SEEING GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND...TO 24 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND 25 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY.
WILL LET THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT RUN THROUGH 10Z. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD BASED ON LATEST
RUN OF THE WAVEWATCH SHOWING WIDESPREAD 6 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. SEAS BUILD TO AS
HIGH AS 7 FEET IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

112 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED EAST OF THE AREA AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
INLAND WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND
COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING
TREND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT...QUITE A FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED
OVERHEAD SINCE SUNSET. DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED WINDS IN THE LOWEST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 20-25
KT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES STILL RELATIVELY STEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF NIGHT A GOOD DEAL OF THIS WIND IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
BEACHES. WINDS AT THE KCRE ASOS ARE SUSTAINED 16 KNOTS CURRENTLY...
WITH RELIABLE MESONET OBSERVATIONS OF 22-24 KNOT GUSTS FROM OAK
ISLAND TO SOUTHPORT AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
COASTAL WIND FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY WE HAVE ALSO RAISED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ACROSS THE BOARD...NOW RANGING FROM 73-74
INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY..LEFTOVERS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
NR GA/SC BORDER THE MAIN FEATURE TO DIFFERENTIATE THURSDAYS FORECAST
FROM A MORE TYPICAL/CLIMATOLOGICAL SETUP BASED SOLELY ON MESOSCALE
PROCESSES/HEATING AS FAR AS PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS FEATURE WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT IT WILL NO LONGER HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL REPRESENTATION.
WHATEVER SMALL BOOST TO POPS IT WILL PROVIDE IT WILL DO SO THROUGH
PVA. THAT SAID THURSDAY SHOULD REPRESENT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCE THAT THE TYPICAL JULY DAY AND STORM INITIATION MAY BE AN HOUR
EARLIER. NOT RAISING POPS TOO MUCH ABOVE CONTINUITY THOUGH AS GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER TO LIFT THIS FEATURE TO THE N. STORM LOCATION COULD
PROBABLY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DUE TO THE VORT MAX BUT LOCALES ALONG THE
FAIRLY PINNED SEABREEZE WILL BE MORE FAVORED DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT
PROVIDED IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEG OF CLIMO. HEIGHTS
REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR JULY ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE IS SLOW TO
DRIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS LATTER FEATURE EVEN CAUSES ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE WRF.
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THEIR THURSDAY AFTERNOON COUNTERPARTS BUT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM
ACTUAL CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP. FRONT ARRIVES SAT WITH
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. WEAK 5
TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE AREA SAT/SUN WILL KEEP DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE...ENSURING A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE. SAT APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE 5H WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LATER SUN INTO MON.
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MAY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SUN...BUT STARTING MON THE MID LEVEL
INVERSION BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...DECREASING COVERAGE. THE LESS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL PROFILE AND THE DISSIPATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION BACK TO MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOCUSED ON
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT A RETURN TO LOWER 90S IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS WEST. LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HELD UP BY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MODERATE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING (25 KT WINDS AT 1000-2000 FT AGL) SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHREDS OF LOW
STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATEST. LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
DAYBREAK...MAINLY OFFSHORE EAST OF MYR/CRE/ILM AND ALSO INLAND WEST
OF FLO WHERE SOME T-STORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED.
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME...BUT VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE KFLO TAF WHERE SHOWERS MAY
BRUSH JUST NORTH OF THE AIRPORT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AFTER DAYBREAK TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WX IS EXPECTED WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS COULD DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME...BUT THE BEST CONCENTRATION SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS (18-23Z) INLAND FROM THE COAST. A MODERATE SEABREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL BACK WIND DIRECTIONS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT
MYR/CRE WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MORNING FOG EACH
DAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT...WE`VE MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LATE
THIS EVENING. A "SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 6 AM AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS
BEEN PRODUCING 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
ACCORDING TO THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 6
AM...WHICH IS NOT COINCIDENTALLY THE ENDING TIME OF OUR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINE. WITH STRONGER WINDS HAVE BUILT SEAS TO 5 FT OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND TO 4 FT AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH BUOY. WE`VE ALSO MADE EDITS TO NEARSHORE SEAS FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES WHERE THIS WIND TRAJECTORY USUALLY RESULTS IN A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WAVE ENERGY MAKING IT RIGHT UP TO THE
BEACHES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY OBSERVED DEVELOPING ON RADAR
OFFSHORE...AND INDICATIONS ARE THESE WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SHORE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ENOUGH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED HOWEVER TO KEEP THE BULK OF ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY..A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
WIND AND THE PERSISTENCE OF SWELL ENERGY MIXING WITH WIND WAVES
WILL MAKE FOR A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING NEEDED FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ALONG AREAS ADJACENT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS...ESP
STARTING THURS NIGHT. CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GO WITH THE ADVISORY HOWEVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER SCEC HEADLINES AS 5 FT SEAS AFFECT THE
OUTERMOST PORTIONS IN THE LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA
HIGH. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS DISSIPATING
FRONT PINCHES THE GRADIENT. SPEEDS SAT INTO SUN WILL RUN 15 TO 20 KT
BUT DROP CLOSE TO 15 KT FOR SUN AND MON AS GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT.
SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 5 TO 6 FT
POSSIBLE ACROSS NC WATERS WITH EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FETCH.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...TRL
AVIATION...SGL/TRA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

926 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...THUNDER DEVELOPED...AND AS EXPECTED WAS RATHER
ISOLATED. A CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA AS FRONT PROPAGATES
SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH BUILDING CAP AND WEAK FORCING WILL LIKELY
CAUSE NO MORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THE 850MB JET IS FOCUSED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT (REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA). NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGED NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

.AVIATION...MOST OF FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY CLEAR. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES.
CIRRUS WILL INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012/

DISCUSSION...WILL DO AN UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS/THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW (23Z) LOCATED FROM
JUST SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY TO JUST NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS (SEEN AS
CU FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FINE LINE ON RADAR). SURFACE
MOISTURE IS DROPPING NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60S (THUS LIMITING THUNDER CHANCES). HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE LOW 70S...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. MLCIN VALUES
ACROSS THIS AREA ARE NEAR ZERO ACCORDING TO LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS.
FORCING IS WEAK...AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDER (IF IT
INITIATES) SHOULD BE LIMITED. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS...THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INCREASING CAP AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES
TO AN END. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL TAKE
PLACE 01Z-02Z...WE SHALL SEE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012/

SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP
SAT NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY EARLY SUN AM.
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

SUN...SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW IN MANITOBA PUSHES THROUGH
CWA DRG DAY SUN. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT NAM AND ECMWF
ARE DRY. GFS DOES SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. WILL
KEEP INHERITED LOW POPS AS I WOULD EXPECT SOME POOLING OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. TIMING WILL BE KEY ISSUE ON
PLACEMENT...BUT COMFORTABLE WITH BROADER 20 POPS TWO DAYS OUT.
TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...GFS CONTINUES TO BRING BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG SD/ND BORDER.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AND SFC PATTERN (POSITION OF HIGH)
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK GFS IS LIKELY OVERDOING EVENING DEWPOINTS
AGAIN. WILL REMAIN DRY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES INTO AREA DURING THE DAY MON...AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...
LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. LONG
WAVE RIDGE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND FLOW TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL BY
DAY 7. ECMWF AND GFS WERE SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT
THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION BY DAY 7. WILL PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.

AREA REMAINS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE OF CAP.
THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
ONE SUCH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE BC COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WED NIGHT AND THU. PRECEDING BC TROUGH...SOME WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
MAY BE TEMPERED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. TRIMMED BACK POPS ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE DUE TO PREFERRED SLOWER GFS. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUE AND WED AND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
ON THU AND FRI.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

627 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...WILL DO AN UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS/THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW (23Z) LOCATED FROM
JUST SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY TO JUST NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS (SEEN AS
CU FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FINE LINE ON RADAR). SURFACE
MOISTURE IS DROPPING NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60S (THUS LIMITING THUNDER CHANCES). HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE LOW 70S...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. MLCIN VALUES
ACROSS THIS AREA ARE NEAR ZERO ACCORDING TO LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS.
FORCING IS WEAK...AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDER (IF IT
INITIATES) SHOULD BE LIMITED. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS...THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INCREASING CAP AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES
TO AN END. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL TAKE
PLACE 01Z-02Z...WE SHALL SEE.

.AVIATION...MOST OF FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY CLEAR. THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIRRUS
WILL INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012/

SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUSES ON
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF COOL FRONT
IN EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER A LARGE DISPARITY IN PROGGED 00Z SFC
DEWPOINTS. THUS I AM LEANING TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
VERIFIED 18Z DEWPOINTS MUCH BETTER THAN THE OVERLY MOIST GFS.

LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...NORTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD HAVE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN AS LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY WITH LEAST CIN OVER LAKES COUNTRY. ALSO
SEEING HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
SINK FURTHER SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTN. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SFC BOUNDARY EXITING
EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME...THINK THE 20Z TO 02Z
TIMEFRAME WILL BE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY. 00Z GFS DEWPOINTS
ARE 16 DEG HIGHER THAN THAN THE NAM...AND VERIFIED 5 DEG HIGH WHEN
COMPARED TO 18Z OBS. THUS DO LIKE THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION AND AM
DISCOUNTING VERY HIGH CAPES THE GFS SUGGESTS FOR EARLY EVENING.
AGAIN...EXPECT SFC BOUNDARY TO BE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND LIMITING CONVECTION. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...DO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG
THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 00Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE 60S.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

743 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL START TO CLEAR FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LATEST RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT
CLEARING SHOULD ACCELERATE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE EVENING. BUT STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER/WHEN CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE SKIES CLEAR ALTHOUGH DRYING
LOW LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET THAT POTENTIAL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT.
FORECAST LOWS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. BUT RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY
BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE. KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL.

ANY COOLING WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE BRIEF AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE REGION.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE BUT WENT
WITH MORE OF A BLEND DURING THE NIGHT PERIODS. HOWEVER IF CLOUDS
ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST...LOWS MAY END UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS IN FAIR SHAPE...IN
TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF SPREAD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH THE CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF
A BROAD CENTRAL US RIDGE...WHICH LOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
EASTERN US AS TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND LEADS TO GRADUAL (AND WEAK)
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE TRANSITION INTO A NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FORCING OR TIMING OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT THE 12Z RUNS TODAY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGHEST MAGNITUDE
OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
ALSO MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE
30-40 RANGE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (THOUGH LESS ORGANIZED) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AS THE NEAR-SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES JUST ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST TO KEEP THE CWA MORE FIRMLY INTO THE SOUTHERN AIR MASS
(WITH GREATER MOISTURE).

THE OVERALL CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE
SMALL...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR LITTLE CHANGE FROM ONE DAY TO TH
NEXT (WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S)...WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING FROM
DAY TO DAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION OR
LEFTOVER CLOUDS. MONDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND WITH THE
RIDGE STILL HAVING THE GREATEST INFLUENCE.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENDED UP BEING A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT AND ONLY HAVE A BRIEF SUNRISE SUPRISE AT CVG/LUK WITH MVFR
VSBYS. DEWPOINTS WERE GOING TO DROP OFF NICELY TONIGHT AND SOME
WIND SHOULD KEEP UP AND INHIBIT FOG FROM BECOMING MORE THAN A
DAYBREAK NUISANCE.

WITH REGARDS TO THE CLOUDS...CIGS 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO
DIPPING TO KILN WILL HANG TOUGH FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THEY SHOULD CLEAR NICELY AT KDAY AND SPREAD SOUTH TO
KCVG/LUK EARLY THIS EVENING AND SCATTER OUT IF NOT GO TOTALLY
CLEAR. FAIR WX CU DURING THE MORNING WILL OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE
LIFTS AND MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING. MORE OF A LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS IS IN ORDER FOR KCMH/LCK TO KILN...BUT SOME BREAKS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND EARLY IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOUND.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS/SITES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

400 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVER
A HIGH CAPE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT. HPC QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST NEAR 3 INCHES MAINLY NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE...SOUTH ALONG
THE OH RIVER INTO PKB THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH EVERY SINGLE STORM. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NAM AND HPC SUGGEST A STRONGER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STILL IN EFFECT FROM
HPC THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. DUE TO YESTERDAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MEASURED BY RAINGAGE...BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WV...WHILE RADAR STORM TOTALS...ALTHOUGH
OVERESTIMATED...SHOWED HIGHER AMOUNTS AWAY FROM GROUND
GAGES...GROUNDS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. BESIDES THESE AREAS ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. THEREFORE...KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WV...INCLUDING
ATHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OH.

ADJUSTED POPS CLOSER TO THE HRRR PER BETTER AGREEMENT ON LACK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WHILE OTHER MESO AND SYNOPTIC MODELS
OVERDUE PCPN. A DISORGANIZED MCS TYPE FEATURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OH. THE FIRST BAND HAVE REACHED
SOUTHEAST OH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO
AFFECT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
BAND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT POSING THE THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

MOIST...WARM...AND HIGH SFC CAPE ENVIRONMENT REMAIN IN PLACE ON
FRIDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOCUSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.

WENT CLOSER TO THE LAV/MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. MEANWHILE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A VORT MAX WILL
BE PUSHING SE-WARD ACROSS NORTHERN WV...WITH LIFT ASSOC WITH IT OUT
AHEAD ACROSS NE PART OF CWA. FINALLY...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PART OF AREA AND GOOD LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED...SHOWERS/STORMS A GOOD BET TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS NE ZONES BY THE EVENING
HOURS. THOUGH GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST...BETTER
CHANCE AT STRONG TO SVR WX APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA WHERE MARGINAL SHEAR COINCIDES BEST WITH
HIGHEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS MAINLY BTWN 00Z-03Z. DCAPE VALUES
OF BTWN 500J-800J WITH SFC-MIDLEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENCES OF ~25C
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST ZONES INDICATE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN THESE LOCALES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING INTENSITY WITH
LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF CWA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM NW/SE. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THUS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FAR EAST AND SOUTH THE REMAINDER
OF SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AGAIN
PRIMARILY FOR FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS INSTABILITY AND LLVL
MOISTURE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OPERATIONAL EXTENDED NWP CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING GENERAL FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...DEPICTING
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/HIGH PLAINS
REGION WITH ANOTHER OFF SE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS UPPER HIGH
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVEL WITH READING CONTINUING IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
LOWLAND AREAS. EXTENDED NWP AND ENSEMBLES ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH MOVING A FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WILL GO AHEAD AND
RAISE POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS PERIOD. DIFFERENCES
ARISE HOWEVER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FRONT HOWEVER AND WILL USE A
BLEND WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC WITH REGARD TO DAYS 6-7. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR THE
PERIOD...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT/MORE
CLOUDS IN AREA.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...OUTSIDE STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS MORE CONVINCING
BRINGING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST OH TO AFFECT HTS AROUND
19-22Z... PKB AND CRW AROUND 20-23Z. STORMS COULD DECAY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING TO PROVIDE VCTS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.

CAN NOT RULE OUT POST PCPN FOG AT HTS DEPENDING ON CLEARING.
THEREFORE...LEFT 4SM WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING BUT GAINING UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAKE UP
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. MORNING FOG COVERAGE MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H M M M M L H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M M L L L L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ009-016>020-
028>031-039-040.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ075.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

224 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVER
A HIGH CAPE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WENT CLOSER TO THE LAV/MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...NAM SHOWING
OVER 2 INCH PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...DECREASING TO 1.5-2 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 1.25-1.5
INCHES SATURDAY. GENERALLY WENT THIS WAY WITH THE POPS AS
WELL...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH PWATS THIS
HIGH...DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE A
PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL STRONG CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY ALSO FAIRLY HIGH. NAM SHOWING
1500-3000 J/KG CAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THE GFS RAMPING UP
TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL CWA FRIDAY. SHEAR NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 15-20 KTS BULK SHEAR AT PEAK INSTABILITY...BUT
STILL COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THE BEST CELLS.

TEMPS A BIT DIFFICULT...MAV QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN MET ON
FRIDAY...WITH A FLIP FLOP ON SATURDAY WITH MET WARMER. IN
GENERAL...VERIFICATION INDICATES GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS SO STAYED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. DID COOL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT A BIT...THINKING DRIER AIR
AND LESS CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OPERATIONAL EXTENDED NWP IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING GENERAL
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH USUAL DIFFS IN STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT. A RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA FOR THE SUN-WED TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST
CONUS...RESULTING IN VARIOUS AMPLITUDES OF WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PERIOD. A SLOW WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS MOISTURE REMAINS
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SURGE BACK NORTHWARD AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HALT THE
WARMING TREND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...OUTSIDE STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS MORE CONVINCING
BRINGING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST OH TO AFFECT HTS AROUND
19-22Z... PKB AND CRW AROUND 20-23Z. STORMS COULD DECAY AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING TO PROVIDE VCTS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.

CAN NOT RULE OUT POST PCPN FOG AT HTS DEPENDING ON CLEARING.
THEREFORE...LEFT 4SM WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING BUT GAINING UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAKE UP
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. MORNING FOG COVERAGE MAY VARY.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L M M H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M L L M M M M M L L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ009-016>020-
028>031-039-040.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ075.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

1004 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/RADAR SHOWED WEAK LOW NEAR
PIEDMONT. DECENT GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW BRINGING A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
TO THE SD PLAINS...SO HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS SOME TODAY. MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER INDUCED DRY LINE ALSO NOTED ON RADAR AROUND THE
NORTH/EAST FOOTHILLS WITH TD/S IN THE UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HAVE THUS LOWERED DEW POINTS SOME FOR THE BLACK HILLS
AND NORTHEAST WY. LEFTOVER -TSRA EXITING CWA NORTHEAST OF
KD07...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THAT AREA THIS MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...THERMAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE CWA INCREASING THE CAP OVER THE AREA.
MLCAPE RISES TO 1-2KJ/KG IN A STRIPE FROM KD07 TO KICR...WITH
READINGS LESS THAN 1KJ/KG FURTHER WEST. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL WY HEADING NORTHEAST INTO ND THROUGH
TONIGHT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTION WE GET
TODAY GIVEN CAP...BUT HIGH-BASED -TSRA POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG
HEATING EXPECTED TODAY IN WESTERN SD AND MORE VIGOROUS TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LIES. WILL LEAVE POPS
ALONE FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2012/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

MASSIVE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE WITH
ANOMALOUSLY LOW MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUING OVER THE PAC NW. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE ADVECTION OF MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE IMPULSES BEING EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. MEANWHILE A RATHER STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIVE SE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES ON THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS THE LINGERING BAJA UPPER VORT MAX EJECTS INTO THE
WESTERN CENTRAL ROCKIES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE PARAMOUNT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS THE STAUNCH THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE.

TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL ADVECT ESE
AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY...WITH MODERATE REFLECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING CONTINUED LL THETA-E RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED WAA. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA AS
H85 T/S ARE PROGGED IN THE LOW 30S C. RAP ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E AT H7 WITH RIDGING CONTINUING THERE.
REFLECTED LL TROUGH FROM THE ADVECTING UPPER IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE
EAST THROUGH THE FA TODAY...SUPPORTING INCREASED LOCAL CONVERGENCE
AND MOISTURE POOLING ALL IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH
COULD CERTAINLY BE AIDED BY THE BLACK HILLS. EML PLUME WOULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION
OVER SW AREAS WITH THE ADVANCING H7 TROUGH...BEING AIDED BY DEEP
DIURNAL MIXING. AMPLE LINGERING LL MOISTURE /WHICH WILL MIX OUT TO A
POINT/ WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER COVERAGE AND
ROBUSTNESS OF CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE EXPANDED POPS THIS AFTERNOON.
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND BECOME ROOTED IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IN THE FAR EASTERN FA...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE CELLS
GIVEN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2 KJ/KG. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED
AT MARGINAL VALUES...BUT ENOUGH COULD CERTAINLY BE PRESENT FOR SOME
CELL ORGANIZATION. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH RECORDS AT
MANY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE LOW 100S. ANY TS
ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE FA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO
75 EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PERIPHERY IMPULSE WILL
DEPART THE REGION...ORPHANING A SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE FA...MAKING
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. BASICALLY BLANKETED THE ENTIRE FA WITH POPS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESP GIVEN AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH A MID LEVEL MONSOON CONNECTION/DISTURBED WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE ROBUST CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH/AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. H7 THETA-E FIELDS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL
THETA-ADV AND MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SAT WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER ADVANCING IMPULSE. RETAINED
HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE HILLS WHERE HIGH LOCAL INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA /ESP NORTHERN
AREAS/...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. TEMPS WILL BECOME TRICKY GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUDS/RAIN/AND NE LL FLOW. WITH THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER SW
SD...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH SOME IN LINE WITH
MOS/MODEL TRENDS...RETAINING WARM NUMBERS OVER SCENTRAL SD BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
MIDWEEK...DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-HARDING-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID
CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...WFO UNR
AVIATION...13
UPDATE...WFO UNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

615 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WY THIS MORNING AND
INTO FAR WESTERN SD IN THE AFTERNOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTH- NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IF STORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY...A FEW COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT /1
AM CDT/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-
FALL RIVER-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-
MELLETTE-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN
FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT
HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

332 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WY AND INTO FAR
WESTERN SD IN THE AFTERNOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

347 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

INTENSE HEAT HAS RETURNED TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER NERN
AR AND THE BOOTHEEL EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AT 3 PM
JONESBORO HAS REACHED AN IMPRESSIVE 105 DEGREES WITH MID 100S
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NERN MS...BUT DEW POINTS ARE
EXTREMELY OPPRESSIVE AND ARE APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS
DOWN THERE...THUS THE DIFFERENCE IN HEAT INDEX AROUND THE AREA IS
ONLY A FEW DEGREES. OBVIOUSLY DECIDED TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE
STABLE AIRMASS LEFT BEHIND FROM OUTFLOWS LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
ERN AR...NRN MS...AND SERN MO AS THE CAP FINALLY ERODES. THINK
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT
SAGS SOUTH FROM SRN MO. MAINTAINED NEAR 50 POP FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WHEN IT BECOMES
CLEAR HOW EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO THE COVERAGE.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NRN MS FRIDAY...REDUCING POPS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY. ONE BEING HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS...AND THE OTHER BEING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT...QUESTION IS HOW HOT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR 100 DEGREE DAYS OVER THE DELTA AS DRIER AIR
FEEDS IN ON NORTH WINDS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE LAGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME AREAS EXCEED 103 DEGREES AGAIN
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY ALONG I-40 AND WEST OF I-55 WHERE THE 925
MB THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LAID OUT AROUND 21Z. THINK THE
MAV TEMPERATURES ARE EMBARRASSINGLY LOW SO DISREGARDED THEM
COMPLETELY. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF MET AND EURO.

DEW POINTS AGAIN WILL BE HIGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SIGNIFICANT POOLING POSSIBLE. DESPITE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S OVER LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NERN MS...DEW POINTS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S YIELDING HEAT INDICES AOA 105
DEGREES. FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH DEW POINTS
WILL MIX BUT THINK THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 60S.
THUS...ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 7 PM
FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR I-40
REMAINING HIGH ON DEW POINTS /MID 70S/...JUXTAPOSED WITH
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 /INCLUDING MEMPHIS/. IN THAT CASE...AN
UPGRADE TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

THINK THE SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY WILL BE CONFINED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES. HERE...SBCAPE VALUES OF 4000 TO 5000
J/KG WILL BE OBTAINED FROM POOLING DEW POINTS AND DRYING MID
LEVELS.STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE DRYING MID LEVELS HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD MITIGATE THE NEED
FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A LESSER INFLUENCE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT 2012
RIDGE OVER NERN MS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER NORTHWEST...NO LIFTING MECHANISMS AND
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE RISK AT BAY.

EURO SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING FOR MID/LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BACK TOWARD OR EXCEEDING 100. DEW POINTS MAY CREEP BACK
INTO THE LOWER 70S AND HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT SOME
POINT LATER NEXT WEEK.

BORGHOFF

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LAST EVENING FROM
THE EAST HAS RESULTED IN AN INITIALLY MORE STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED
FROM NEAR TUP...WESTWARD TO 50SM SOUTH OF MEM... TO 70SM SW OF JBR.

BEST TSRA CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTH MS... SOUTH OF MEM THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...
INCLUDING NEAR MEM AFTER 20Z...ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

12Z NAM AND 13Z HRRR MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY BANDED AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MEM IN THE 01Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME.
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE A SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF PREFRONTAL
SHRA/TSRA THAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO AT MIDDAY.
THERE IS SOME DOUBT WHETHER FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME A STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE CAP FOLLOWING SUNSET. GIVEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO FOR EARLY EVENING
PERIOD AT MEM.

PWB

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 79 100 78 97 / 40 20 10 10
MKL 76 96 72 94 / 50 20 10 0
JBR 79 101 75 99 / 30 10 0 0
TUP 76 93 77 92 / 50 50 30 20

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-
DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1255 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY WITH MANY AREAS NORTH OF I-40
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 AT 10 AM. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS NERN AR AND NWRN TN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 100S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE DEW POINT MIXING EXPECTED
GIVEN SUCH A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDING
THEM INTO FRIDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH LOWER CAPE THIS MORNING AND A MUCH
STRONGER CAP THANKS TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTAMINATION. ANOTHER
OUTFLOW IS APPROACHING THE MEMPHIS METRO AS OF THIS WRITING FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MO. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING OVER
TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY...WHICH IS IN AN AREA OF WEAKER CAPPING. THINK
STORMS WILL RE-FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EASTWARD...BUT IT
MAY TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO DESTABILIZE THINGS SUFFICIENTLY.

BORGHOFF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION REMAIN
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AS
THEY DISSIPATE THUS ONLY EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN THE CWA FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

NONE OF THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THUS CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
IS PRETTY LOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
POINT AT THIS BOUNDARY AS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IN FACT THE 12Z NAM BRINGS THE LINE OF
CONVECTION INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. UNTIL THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FIRE IS PRETTY HARD. THERE ARE SEVERAL LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION LEFT ACROSS THE CWA. ANY
ONE OF THESE COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS PINPOINT AT MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR
DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS WILL
GO WITH 20 POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHILE LEAVING THE REST OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS.
ALTHOUGH WILL BUMP UP NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
FROM 30 POPS TO 40 POPS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

ANOTHER TROUBLE SPOT IN THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES...YESTERDAYS
TEMPERATURES WERE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS ALLOWED HEAT INDICES TO
ACTUALLY REACH 110 DEGREES...HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. WOULD THINK THIS WOULD OCCUR AGAIN TODAY BUT ONE OF THE
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WENT THROUGH MEMPHIS AND JACKSON THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW RUNNING THREE TO SIX DEGREES COOLER
AT 1 AM CDT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO DROPPED. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INHIBIT TEMPERATURES
FROM RECOVERING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THUS WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE
AND GO 98 DEGREES FOR A HIGH IN MEM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MKL WILL
GO ONE DEGREE ABOVE AND GO WITH A HIGH OF 95 DEGREES. NOW
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IS A DIFFERENT STORY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
NOT AFFECTED JONESBORO OR WALNUT RIDGE THUS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXACTLY WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME OR RUNNING UP TO
TWO DEGREES WARMER. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT DROPPED AS MUCH AT WALNUT
RIDGE AND ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER AT JONESBORO THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SO THINK NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL MAY BE ON TARGET TO REACH HEAT WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN
TODAY. WILL ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AS A RESULT.
ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY GOING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AND SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NOON
TIME. HOW MUCH THE LINE STAY INTACT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE GFS
MAINTAINS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE NAM SHOWS
IT DWINDLING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WILL GO
WITH A RANGE OF 30-50 POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY
FOR JUST NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY SO
DO NOT THINK HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DESPITE EXPECTING SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR IN THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SFC WINDS WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK
INTO THE CWA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION BUT BY WEDNESDAY
THE RIDGE SEEMS TO RESTRENGTHEN. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

KRM

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

BEST TSRA CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTH MS... SOUTH OF MEM THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...
INCLUDING NEAR MEM AFTER 20Z...ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

PWB

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 100 79 100 78 / 40 40 20 10
MKL 97 76 96 72 / 40 50 20 10
JBR 103 79 100 75 / 40 30 10 0
TUP 94 76 93 77 / 40 50 40 30

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-
TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1139 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD
ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/

SHORT TERM...
AGAIN...CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OR NOT.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND OVER THE
RIO GRANDE AND THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
MODELS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...COVERAGE...AND HOW
LONG STORMS MAY STAY AROUND /IF/ THEY DEVELOP. HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CAPROCK WHILE THE NAM AND TTU WRF ARE DRY. CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
BUT TAKING A LOOK OUTSIDE SHOWS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT FOR NOW.
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BUT EVEN THESE ARE DISSIPATING
FAIRLY FAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED
TO WATCH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND THIS MORNING FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
TOMORROW RESPECTIVELY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
UA RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL GET NUDGED WEST TO CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL MITIGATE STORM POTENTIAL AND
SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPS /UPPER
90S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK/. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAKNESS/UA IMPULSE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE...AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THUS FAR...FORECAST MODELS ARE VOID
OF PRECIP GIVEN A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND THIS IMPULSE
APPEARING RELATIVELY WEAK. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HINT AT A PACIFIC UA LOW PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
IDAHO/SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE CENTER OF THE UA
RIDGE TO TRANSLATE SE TO THE SERN CONUS...WHERE IT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME MAY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO NEAR THE WESTERN ZONES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE FA
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT RATHER LIGHT QPF JUST
EAST AND SE OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO ANALYZE FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF THIS WAVE WILL TURN OUT TO BE EVEN STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED...AND THUS CREATE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ATTM...A SILENT
POP FORECAST WILL ENSUE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 93 64 94 66 93 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 95 66 94 67 95 / 10 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 93 66 94 68 94 / 10 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 93 66 93 66 94 / 10 10 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 94 70 94 68 96 / 10 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 93 67 91 66 94 / 10 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 93 67 92 67 95 / 10 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 101 71 100 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 10
SPUR 98 70 96 71 98 / 10 10 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 100 73 98 74 101 / 10 10 0 0 10

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

650 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO KANSAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT REACHING
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LINE OF CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS MAY BE SEEN AHEAD
OF THE RAIN. ONCE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PASS...LIGHT RAIN MAY
PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BUCKLED THE FRONT TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH...POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW.
EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRANSFER ENERGY
TO THE LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT SHOULD FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE M80/L90S.

THE SURFACE LOW HAS A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. USING
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ENTER SE WV
AROUND 800 PM THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADS TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WHILE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT LOW POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS INSTABILITIES LINGER.

STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD START AS EARLY
AS NOON ACROSS THE WEST THEN SPREADS TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

TROUGH THRU THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
PERIOD WILL BE A FACTOR IN FLOW ALOFT TURNING ANY STORM COMPLEXES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA MIDWEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A DECENT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WITH A FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AND FOLLOWING IT WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. TIMING AND
PATH IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS. OTHERWISE...WILL STAY ON THE
HUMID SIDE AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS JUST WEST OF US AND FRONTS MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME SLICING FAR SOUTH...BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND IF WE CAN
GET ENOUGH WWD TRANSLATION OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH.

LOOKING AT A WEEK WITH MUGGY LOWS AND SEASONAL HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING AT A WEEK WITH MUGGY LOWS AND SEASONAL HIGHS.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 647 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LINE OF CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT TRACKS EAST. WIND GUSTS OF
20-30KTS MAY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE RAIN. RAIN MAY BRING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR LESS...THEN REBOUND BACK TO VFR.
CLEARING OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.

SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

331 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BUCKLED THE FRONT TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH...POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW.
EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRANSFER ENERGY
TO THE LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT SHOULD FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE M80/L90S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING AT A WEEK WITH MUGGY LOWS AND SEASONAL HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING AT A WEEK WITH MUGGY LOWS AND SEASONAL HIGHS.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 KTS. SINCE
HRRR WAS THE CLOSEST TO THE RADAR IMAGE AT 16Z THU...USED THIS MODEL
TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING
VICINITY HIT AND MISS STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
MORE ORGANIZED LINE THIS EVENING.

SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE HINTON TRANSMITTER REMAINS OFF THE
AIR. COMMERCIAL POWER HAS BEEN RESTORED...BUT TELCO SIGNAL IS NOT
REACHING THE SITE. WE ARE TRYING TO ESTABLISH A WIRELESS
CONNECTION TO THE SITE WITH THE HOPES OF BEING ABLE TO TRANSMIT
AGAIN FROM THIS SITE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1157 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...SLOWED WARMING AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN OUR NORTHWEST
AS LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG SEEM TO HAVE LINGERED LATER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S OR LOWER
70S. EDGE OF STRATUS ERODING OVER IOWA AND THINK THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY EXPAND INTO THE SOUTH ALLOWING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...SO HIGHS STILL IN THE 80S ACROSS THAT AREA. ALSO THREW
IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES PRIOR TO 18Z PER FAINT ECHOES
OBSERVED ON RADAR.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VIS SATELLITE SHOWS BKN-OVC SKIES OVER THE
CWA...WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER CIGS MOVING S-SSE OF A LINE FROM WEST
BEND TO MONROE CAUSING MKE AND UES TO RISE UP TO VFR. ENW SHOULD
SEE A SIMILAR EFFECT WITHIN THE HOUR...AT LEAST TO MVFR.
HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
UPSTREAM LOWER CIGS...IFR TO MVFR...BEHIND THIS LINE MOVES
IN...THOUGH POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT EXISTS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. ALSO EVIDENT FROM VIS SATELLITE IS STRATUS ERODING OVER NE
IOWA...THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD INTO THE SW OF THE CWA. THIS
EROSION COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING OUT WEST...AS SEEN VIA BUFKIT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...GIVE REASON TO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
IN WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING...WHILE
THE EAST HALF STAYS IN MVFR. EAST HALF WILL THEN TREND UP TO VFR
BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

VERY SHORT TERM. TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TODAY.....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST WITH FORCING AHEAD OF
AXIS OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TIMING BACK EDGE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LEAVES JUST THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH ANY CHANCE FOR
PCPN AFTER 12Z...IN LINE WITH EXIT OF LAYER FRONTOGENESIS.

LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF FORECAST IS WITH SOME OPERATIONAL AND
HI-RES MODELS PAINTING LARGE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON APEX OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WITH SOME UPPER
SUPPORT FROM TRAILING VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER FAR NRN MN ON WATER
VAPOR LOOPS...AND THEN DROPPING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS IT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LACK OF FORCING AND
OVERDONE CAPE ON RAP SOUNDINGS DUE TO LOW TO MID 70 SURFACE DEW
POINTS GIVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO OVERALL SCENARIO SO WILL ONLY
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND GO
WITH A DRY AFTERNOON WHICH COLLABORATES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEPICTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PRODUCING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ADDED
SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND PRECIPITATION AND WILL ALSO ADJUST AS NEEDED
AT ISSUANCE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST CWA...BUT
DELAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER AND SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST LEND SUPPORT TO CONSENSUS HIGHS
FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER REGION WITH CORE OF COLDER 925 TO 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SWINGING THROUGH. ONLY MIXING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
STAYING UP WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT COOLER LOWS THAN
CONSENSUS LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON NAM/GFS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM
SHOWING MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARMER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD NEAR 90 CLOSE TO SHORE BEFORE LAKE BREEZE
KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MILDER LOWS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER HIGH LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEST NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THESE MODELS DO SHOW A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY...WEAKER ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. BOTH SHOWING QPF...WITH
THE GFS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS HIGH DEW POINT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BIAS. WILL LEAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.

ECMWF/GFS THEN BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING OFF UNTIL DEVELOPING QPF NEAR WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS AGAIN PROBABLY OVERDONE AT TIMES WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH LIFT IN LOW LEVELS FOR LOW POPS TO CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS MAY LIMIT
HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR EASTERN-MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z. MOISTURE
FROM RAINS TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MVFR CEILINGS...MIXING UP TO VFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...BUT LINGERING IN THE EAST WITH FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN REDUCING POTENTIAL OF INVERSION MIXING OUT. WATCHING
FOR POTENTIAL OF REDUCED VSBYS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN THIS MORNING.
NAM IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE DUE TO OVERDONE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WILL KEEP CIGS NO LOWER THAN MVFR IN THE EAST...TRENDING THEM UP AFTER
00Z FRIDAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ET/JCW
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

438 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

UPDATED VERY SHORT TERM AND ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.VERY SHORT TERM. TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TODAY.....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER HIGH LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEST NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

330 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST WITH FORCING AHEAD OF
AXIS OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TIMING BACK EDGE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LEAVES JUST THE EASTERN CWA WITH ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN
AFTER 12Z...IN LINE WITH EXIT OF LAYER FRONTOGENESIS. WILL ADJUST
AT ISSUANCE TIME BUT RAPID DIMINISHING TREND MAY MEAN NO MORNING
PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEPICTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PRODUCING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND PRECIPITATION AND WILL ALSO ADJUST AS
NEEDED AT ISSUANCE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF FORECAST IS WITH SOME OPERATIONAL AND
HI-RES MODELS PAINTING LARGE QPF BULLSEYES OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON APEX OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WITH SOME UPPER
SUPPORT FROM TRAILING VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER FAR NRN MN ON WATER
VAPOR LOOPS...AND THEN DROPPING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS IT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LACK OF FORCING AND
OVERDONE CAPE ON RAP SOUNDINGS DUE TO LOW TO MID 70 SURFACE DEW
POINTS GIVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO OVERALL SCENARIO SO WILL GO WITH
A DRY AFTERNOON WHICH COLLABORATES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER HIGH LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEST NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THESE MODELS DO SHOW A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY...WEAKER ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. BOTH SHOWING QPF...WITH
THE GFS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS HIGH DEWPOINT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BIAS. WILL LEAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1209 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLICATED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. FIRST
OFF...REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CAN STILL EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN IOWA THAT IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS CLUSTER
IS ALSO GETTING THAT MCV LOOK TO IT AND ITS TRACKING IN THE SAME
TRAJECTORY AS THE MCV FARTHER NORTH. THE LATEST TIMING WOULD CALL
FOR THIS NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM NW WISCONSIN TO AROUND KEWAUNEE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS INTERACTS WITH THIS THERMAL
GRADIENT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE CURRENT WEATHER HANDLED VERY
WELL...SO COULDNT REALLY RELY ON ANY PARTICULAR GUIDANCE. MCV
MOVING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS PUTTING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE
PLANS...THOUGH THINK IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST. WHAT IMPACT THIS MCV WILL HAVE ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT IS NOT CLEAR. IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ASSUMING THE STRENGTHENING TRENDS OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE TRACKING OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND NE WISCONSIN LATER
IN THE EVENING ASSUMING ITS DIRECTION OF TRAVEL DOES NOT CHANGE. IT WILL
ENCOUNTER ELEVATED CAPES TONIGHT FROM ABOUT 500-800 J/KG SO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STORM BECOMING FEISTY AND PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT ODDS OF ANYTHING SEVERE HAPPENING IS LOW. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD TONIGHT AND HAVE
INCREASED THEM TO LIKELY. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS...RAISED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING AND HELP PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH BY MIDDAY. WITH CONVERGENCE WEAKENING DURING THE AM
HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS LOW TOMORROW MORNING THEN CLEAR THEM OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MORNING CLOUD COVER...PLUS LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN COOL EAST FLOW...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
AND WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...PCPN TRENDS
AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A FEW MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN ACROSS NC WI ON
FRIDAY...DUE TO WAA/ISENT LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS PCPN WILL
STAY NW OF GRB CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEN GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO NE WI. WILL TAKE A CHANCE ON A
DRY FCST FOR THOSE PERIODS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT THE OLD FRONT
BACK TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...BRINGING A SURGE OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO C/NE WI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WX LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINES WITH THE
BUILDING INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DURING THE PERIOD...AS H8 TEMPS STAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 C RANGE. WARMER H8 TEMPS ARE POSSIBLY BY NEXT WEDS...BUT TEMPS
MAY HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE STATE THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END AROUND
18Z OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE.

TDH
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

137 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODELS AND HRRR DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIPITATION - WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT IN THE MODELS OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN PA AND JUST INTO UPSTATE NY NOT INDICATED. AS A
RESULT...UPDATED POPS MANUALLY TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO
GET STARTED...BUT WORKED TOWARDS A SREF/NAM/HRRR POP BLEND BY 12Z.

ALSO ADDED IN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL PRECIPITATION SLIDES
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH BY 9-10Z.

PREVIOUS UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE WORKING FAIRLY WELL
- DID DO SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE - WITH
IDEA OF LOWS PRIMARILY FROM UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S ON TRACK - WITH A
FEW MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS PERSISTENT
EAST WINDS CONT ALONG WITH AN 8-9 PERIOD SECOND SE SWELL.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
JET STREAK EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SPLIT AT 500MB. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES FARTHER OUT
TO SEA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BUILDING MORE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FRIDAY AND HIGHS WERE
CHOSEN FROM MAV/MET BLEND. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE REGION WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. LOWS TAKEN FROM MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US KEEPS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL
PUSHED INTO NORTHERN CANADA. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...BOTH HIGH
TEMPS ON SUN AND OVERNIGHT MON WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY SUN NIGHT IS THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
BRINGING THE VORT MAX THROUGH CENTRAL NY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISO SHOWER FOR A PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT.

CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING 12Z MON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BOTH
THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCT ACTIVITY. SCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...SO WILL
ALSO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE BEST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP MON
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CWA...AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. KEPT THE CHC WORDING IN THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH THROUGH. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE QUICKER SOLUTION..MOVING
THROUGH DURING TUES MORNING...AND THE 12Z ECMWF LINGERING UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE THE FRONT MAKES ITS
PASSAGE BY TUES NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE MID
WEEK...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...CREATING PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
WED AND THURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CLEARLY DIVERGES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING FORTH A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE BY LATE FRIDAY...WHILE THE
12Z GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. USING MAINLY HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION
OF TIMING OF BOTH SURFACE LOW AND PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LEADING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ON FRI AND CHC POPS FOR SAT.

TEMPS FLUCTUATING DURING THE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FLOW BRINGS IN 850MB TEMPS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MON AND TUES
FOR INLAND AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...COASTAL AREAS
COULD STILL SEE NEAR NORMAL. FOR THIS...USED A BLENDED DGEX/MOS
GUIDANCE. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEE BRIEF COOLING...AND USING HPC
GUIDANCE...PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 08Z AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR AND BECOME UNLIMITED DURING SATURDAY.

WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST...THEN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON-TUE...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
.WED...VFR.

.MARINE...
MINOR UPDATES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
RADAR...OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT - AS FORECAST.

PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER A LONG DISTANCE OR FETCH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS COULD APPROACH 25 KT WINDS ON
THE OCEAN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUE. CAN ALSO EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON MON AND TUES. WITH NO CLEAR
PERSISTING WIND FLOW THIS WEEK...SHOULDN/T SEE WAVES HAVE THE
CHANCE TO BUILD UP TO ABOVE 5 FT ON THE WATERS FOR THE WEEK.
MAINLY USED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...BLENDING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
MORNING FOR A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE FROM 1.5 - 2 INCHES
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING - WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.
CURRENTLY THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING/ORGANIZATION
OF ANY CONVECTION TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO
AND TO SPECIFY ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT APPEARS THAT WATER LEVELS ON THE WESTERN SOUND WILL LIKELY FALL
A 1/2 A FT OR SO BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS - LIKE THEY
DID FOR THE HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUND TO TOUCH MINOR BENCHMARKS - WILL JUST ALLOW COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT THERE TO EXPIRE AT 6Z AS SCHEDULED.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/JM/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JM/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1254 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

ALSO ADDED IN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL PRECIPITATION SLIDES
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH BY 9-10Z.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS PERSISTENT
EAST WINDS CONT ALONG WITH AN 8-9 PERIOD SECOND SE SWELL.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 06Z AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR AND BECOME UNLIMITED DURING SATURDAY.

WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON-TUE...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
.WED...VFR.

.MARINE...
MINOR UPDATES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
RADAR...OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT - AS FORECAST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/JM/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JM/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

324 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TODAY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE SURFACE-500MB RIDGE
OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE...SURFACE-500MB...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SETTLE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA SUNDAY. AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES NORTH...
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE LEVELS
SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5
INCHES. WEAK PRESSURE FIELD WILL ALLOW BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AS IT FORMS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHES INLAND. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION
OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FROM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO LAKE GEORGE AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST TO THE MIDDLE 90S IN THE INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...LINGERING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE INTERIOR. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 70S
INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND BEACHES CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

SUN-MON...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND TO THE NORTH WITH SE FLOW ACROSS EC
FL INTO THE EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY LATE SUN INTO MON AS TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND INTO REGION... BOOSTING PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF EC FL. POPS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE SCATTERED WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH AND THROUGH INTERIOR AS
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. POPS LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING
FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THEN WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH APPROACH OF THE WAVE. POPS CLIMB A
BIT FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY/NMRS CATEGORY THROUGH SOUTHERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH WAVE CROSSING THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS REACHING
NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY...MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE A SMIDGE LOWER ON MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND EARLIER PRECIP ONSET...BUT STILL WARM AND MUGGY...AS WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MID-UPPER 70S.

TUE-FRI...EFFECTS FROM WAVE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY TUESDAY. RIDGE
AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
DURING THE MID WEEK THEN MAY DRIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. POSITION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (30-40 PERCENT)...AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS...AT 20-30 PERCENT. RIDGE
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOW/MID 90S INTERIOR AND
AROUND 90 COAST BEFORE SEA BREEZE...SOME LOWER 90S VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST WITH POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS FAVORING SLIGHTLY LATER SEA BREEZE
ONSET NORTH.

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MARINE...CURRENT...TRIDENT PIER AT PORT CANAVERAL AND NOAA BUOYS
010 AND 012...EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND SAINT AUGUSTINE... WERE
RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS AND LESS. THE NOAA AND
SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIODS SEAS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD
GEORGIA.

SUN-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
EARLY WEEK...BEFORE REPOSITIONING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
DURING THE MID WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS LATE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE S-SE 10-15KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FT...UP TO 5
FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 76 90 77 / 20 20 30 30
MCO 94 75 94 76 / 20 30 40 30
MLB 90 78 89 78 / 20 20 40 30
VRB 89 78 89 77 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 94 77 95 77 / 20 30 40 30
SFB 94 77 95 77 / 20 30 40 30
ORL 94 77 95 77 / 20 30 40 30
FPR 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 40 40

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....GLITTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.AVIATION...21/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN PERIODS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THE SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN SD MAY AFFECT KFOD...BUT CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL AND NOT INCLUDED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SLY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1PM SUN TO 9PM WED
BLACK HAWK-BUTLER-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-
POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO-WRIGHT

UPDATE/AVIATION...SMALL
SHORT TERM...JUNGBLUTH
LONG TERM...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1106 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2012

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING A DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DAILY RECORDS FOR SATURDAY (JUL 21)...
GOODLAND.....105 (2005)
HILL CITY....110 (1934)
BURLINGTON...103 (2005)
MCCOOK.......105 (2005)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........106

DAILY RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (JUL 22)...
GOODLAND.....105 (1934)
HILL CITY....108 (1934)
BURLINGTON...104 (1990)
MCCOOK.......110 (1931)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-
029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...BULLER
CLIMATE...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

456 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
NOW THAT LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS,
EXPECT REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO END. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT HUMID. A SLOWING COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EXITED SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

DUE TO THE STILL SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. EXPECT VERTICAL MIXING
TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SOME BY MIDDAY YIELDING A TREND TOWARD SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT, NOCTURNAL COOLING COULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS.

MADE CORRESPONDING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, USING
BLEND OF RECENT GFS LAMP AND HRRR VALUES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY
NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT. THIS YIELDED LOWS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO PROJECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SREF MODEL OUTPUT NEXT SHOWS A COLD FRONT, WITH POTENTIALLY LOWER
DEW POINTS RATHER THAN LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT, WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY BUT THEN SLOW OR EVEN STALL BEFORE
CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF HUMID,
UNSTABLE SURFACE LAYER COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM PREFRONTAL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, BASED ON BLEND
OF RECENT GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND FLATTEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AGAIN WILL
DETERMINE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. HAVE KEPT
CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER FORECASTS BY MAINTAINING A DRY BREAK WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RENEWED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT REMAINING AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON,
AS CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BECOME SCATTERED LATE.

MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IF WINDS BECOMES CALM
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWING COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

210 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WASH OUT SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY... STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS... BRINGING HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN LIFTING/WASHING OUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SW ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... AS ANOTHER VERY STRONG HEAT RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 40 POP. AREAL AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE. HOWEVER... 0.25 TO 0.50 TOTALS
ARE STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALLY UP TO
AN INCH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... THE STORMS
WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. A FEW
WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90-95 RANGE FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY.
POP WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

BY MONDAY... WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE GONE. HOWEVER... A
PIEDMONT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK HEATING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SE OF THE TRIAD REGION (OR ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH POSITION). HIGHS WILL WARM SOLIDLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECASTS. IT APPEARS THE
HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL AGAIN GO WILD. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE FROM KS/MO TO IL/IN... RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY DRY GROUND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND TO THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY... BUT THERE ARE SIGNS AGAIN THAT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD AGAIN KEEP OUR
REGION FROM ROASTING AND BURNING UP LIKE OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST.

THE HOTTEST DRIEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS OF 95-99 ARE
EXPECTED. RDU MAY HIT 100 AGAIN? THEN... THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN WED-FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM FRIDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

THE FIRST CONCERN IS WHAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY NORTHWEST OF THE
CITIES WILL DO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT FOR HOW LONG IS THE QUESTION. THE
21.04Z HRRR SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY MAY KEEP GROWING IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LONG AND
NORTH OF I94. MEANWHILE...THE 21.00Z HI-RES ARW TAKES IT ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG I35 TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. WHILE AT FIRST
GLANCE THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE...THE BEST CAPE DOES RESIDE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO 3000 J/KG OF MU CAPE AND
THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS ALSO TOWARD THIS HIGHER CAPE
AREA. THE LOCAL 21.10Z LAPS MODEL WOULD SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE
THE OTHER SHORT TERM MESO MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW...HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TO COVER THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND ARXLAPS OUTPUT AND WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
DOING A GOOD JOB LATELY WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BE THE ONLY WAVE IN THE FLOW FOR TODAY. THIS
WOULD LEAVE JUST THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY FORCE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1 TO 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 315K SURFACE AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECTED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE.
THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE LESS THAN 4
PVU/S AND WITH WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...HELD THE RAIN CHANCES AT
20 FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH JUST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AS THE ONLY FORCING FEATURES...MAINTAINED THE
LOW 20 PERCENT CHANCES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO ALLOW THE
HEAT TO BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE 21.00Z ECMWF
SUGGEST 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30-32C RANGE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90 MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 100
EXPECTED. THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT CURRENT TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM. WITH THE
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE ECMWF
IS ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME
RAIN WHICH COULD HOLD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
WET. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE INCREASES.
THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECT TO
MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF THE BORDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ONCE THE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
1129 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TOPPING UPPER RIDGE IS GRADUALLY PUSHING COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS BUT CONVERGENCE IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES TO TIME ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES. EARLIER STORMS
ALONG BOUNDARY CLOSER TO KDLH ARE NOW WEAKENING AGAIN WHILE STORMS
FORMING CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW OVER DAKOTAS. STILL UNSURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WITH SUCH WEAK CONVERGENCE BUT GIVEN SOME
SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE INCLUDING MESOSCALE MODELS...HAVE PUSHED AHEAD
SMALL SHOWER RISK TO LATER THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
THIS ISSUANCE.

ON A SIDE NOTE...SURFACE FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT
AND HENCE WHERE GRADIENT IS WEAKEST /WISCONSIN SIDE/ COULD SEE
POCKETS OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1142 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATED NDFD AND ZFP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS THINNED AND LIFTED...CUMULUS FIELD HAS
RAPIDLY TAKEN ITS PLACE. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOWERED AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

12Z SOUNDINGS AT ILN AND OHX SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
THIS IDEA IS CONFIRMED BY LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SUPPORTED BY SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD BEGINS TO LIFT AND MIX OUT. HAVE UPDATED
NDFD TO FURTHER SLOW THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND ALSO TO SLOW THE
TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE 10Z HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TOWARDS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
VA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED ALL SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. THE ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

IT STILL APPEARS THAT STRATOCU AND STRATUS WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO
MIX INTO CU AS DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN ALOFT...BUT NOT SO MUCH AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SFC HIGH TO
OUR NW IS ENE...WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH THIS
IN MIND...CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS ON TARGET AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION ON
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS REACH MIDDLE TN AND EXITED INTO VA.
MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO BUILD
SOUTH TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT A BIT TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT DRY OUT ALL
THAT MUCH DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. THE RIDGE SHOULD
LEAD TO ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING AND A STRONG ENOUGH CAP FOR NOTHING
MORE THAN A CU FIELD IN MOST PLACES LATER TODAY ONCE THE STRATUS AND
STRATOCU LIFTS AND MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CAP WILL BE A BIT WEAKER OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY DAY
WITH MAX T NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS LED TO
MOIST GROUND AND MOIST LOW LEVELS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MAX T NEAR A
COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE...IF NOT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ANY CONVECTION AND CU SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG ON SUN PER MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT MORE NW AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO ROUND THE RIDGE. MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE AIR MASS WILL WARM
AS WELL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING 90 OR EVEN THE LOWER
90S ON SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EXTENDED. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTH AND EAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MODELS DO
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS HOW ALL OF THIS UNFOLDS...SO STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STORMS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED EARLY IN
THE WEEK...AND THEN WILL BECOME MORE A THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL...AS
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE PREVALENT. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND LOWS AROUND 70.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WEAK GRADIENT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE FIRST 6 HRS
OF THE PERIOD...STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN ABOUT 14Z AND 16Z. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX INTO VFR AFTERNOON CU AROUND 18Z. ONCE VFR
DEVELOPS ON SAT...IT SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VALLEY FOG...PERHAPS NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT THE TAF
SITES MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN VALLEYS SUCH AS LOZ AND SME
FIRST AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFT TO THE RIDGETOP AT JKL.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

651 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTERACTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS.
AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE REMAINS TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES FOR
PIN-POINTING WHERE AND WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OTHER THAN THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...WHICH ENDS BY NOON.

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY
VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS SW MN...AND SOME INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL
JET MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
DUE TO REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS WHICH
BASICALLY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
BY 12Z. LATER TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE SD MAY
FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW AND SC MN.

THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...IS PROGGED TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF
THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THESE TWO
FEATURES MAINTAIN THE WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH SUBTLE SHRTWV/S INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR
REGION. BASED ON THE MEAN FLOW...THIS FRONT MAY SET UP JUST SOUTH
OF THE MN/IA BORDER WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS OUR FA IN TERMS OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE RELATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. ONCE THIS UPPER LOW
TRANSLATES TO THE EAST...A MORE NW FLOW IS LIKELY WHICH MEANS
COOLER TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND. ..JLT..

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

AS USUAL...LLJ UNDER THE COVER OF DARKNESS IN JULY HAS RESULTED IN
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
IMPACT AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING. RAP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING
THE LLJ AFTER 15Z. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE LEFT MUCH PAST THAT TIME...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. AFTER THAT...WEAK BOUNDARY NOW
SLIPPING THROUGH AXN/STC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP DOWN AROUND I-90
BY THIS EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION IN THE MPX CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BEING OVER ERN
WI...CLOSER TO SOME STRONGER 850 MB FLOW. TONIGHT...THE LLJ WILL
RETURN AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE COMING UP OUT OF ERN NEB AND INTO SW MN BY 06Z. THIS WILL
BE RUNNING UP OVER THE BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SW MN TONIGHT...THAT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN MN DURING THE NIGHT...AS INDICATED BY SREF PRECIP
PROBS. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...COULD HAVE PROBABLY
GOTTEN AWAY WITH A VRB03KT WIND GROUP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
TODAY...BUT TRIED TO INDICATE SOME WIND DIRECTION WHERE AGREEMENT
IN DIRECTION COULD BE FOUND BETWEEN THE LAV...NAM...AND RAP.

KMSP...WEAK LLJ OVERHEAD NOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z...
WHICH WILL PUT A RATHER ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. DO
NOT THINK E-W ORIENTED LINE ACROSS THE NORTH METRO WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE FIELD THIS MORNING...AS IT IS TIED TO THE NORTH END OF
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT GRADIENT OF THE LLJ...WHICH THE RAP DOES
NOT BRING AS FAR SOUTH AS MSP BEFORE NEARLY DOING AWAY WITH THE
LLJ. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THIS LINE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE TEMPO TSRA GROUP. FOR
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR SEEING CONVECTION IN SW
MN...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER FOR SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING COMING OUT OF SW MN AND APPROACHING
THE FIELD BY 12Z SUN MORNING.

//OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JLT/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

720 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...

MORNING SOUNDING AT KLBF SUGGESTED 106 FOR A MAX TEMP. MEANWHILE
THE SUPER ENSEMBLE INDICATES 105. THE MAX TEMP GRID WAS GIVEN A 1
TO 3 DEGREE BUMP. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATED 109F AT KONL. THE
HEAT LOW AND ATTENDENT COLD FRONT APPEARS IT MAY SAG THROUGH
SHERIDAN COUNTY COOLING THAT AREA TO AROUND 100.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. ELSEWHERE VFR IS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
EVENING HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 500MB LEVEL REVEALS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
ENGULF MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48. THERE ARE TWO TROUGHS SOMEWHAT
BOOKENDING THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...THE FIRST OFF TO OUR WEST OVER THE
PAC NW...AND THE SECOND REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
APPALACHIANS. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT
REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAK
BORDER AT THIS HOUR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO AND BESIDES A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /FROM MCV ACROSS S DAK/ EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
CHERRY COUNTY...THE REGION LARGELY REMAINS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 06Z ARE WARM...WITH UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S BEING THE NORM.

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...TODAY AND SUNDAY. ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FIRE RISKS HEADLINE THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING FOR THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FIRST THE EXPECTED ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. MID/UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30C ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE FORECAST EMPLOYED A BLEND OF
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE /NAM MOS/ WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
SUGGESTS THE WARMEST READINGS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...NO REVISIONS ARE NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS TO PROMOTE THE THREAT OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WITHIN
ANY FIRE START. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN LOWERING TD/S BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS
TO BUILD EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING ALLOWS FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES...BUT UNDERESTIMATED GUSTS ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED NAM MOS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. WE HAVE TWO LARGE FIRES GOING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAND HILLS/NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEY...FELT IT WAS
BEST TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT KNOWING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA IS
SMALL. MORE THAN LIKELY...LOCALIZED RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE
MET...BUT GIVEN THE RECORD DROUGHT...DON/T WANT TO MESS AROUND.
WILL ISSUE A RFW FOR ALL FIRE ZONES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONTO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK PERTURBATION TOPS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LIMITING THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST. IF ANY STORMS ARE TO DEVELOP...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PAST MONTH...STORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
TYPICAL INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE. STRONG ERRATIC GUSTY WIND
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. DRY
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE OF A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 204...206 AND 208.

EXTENDED...BEYOND SUNDAY. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK AS THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND POSSIBLY FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE MIDWEEK. GENERALLY FAVORED THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED...WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT LEAVE THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL
BETTER CERTAINTY IS DISPLAYED BY THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. ELSEWHERE VFR IS EXPECTED.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
024>029-036>038-057>059-069>071-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM INLAND FROM THE LAKES. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE IN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVING AROUND EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. THE MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG
HILL WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
JUST SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BENEATH 800MB...WITH CUMULUS LIKELY TO INITIATE WHEN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES MAY EVEN GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN SPOTS.
SOME AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO THE SUN LONGER THAN OTHERS...WITH STABLE
LAKE SHADOWS CLEARING OUT THE CUMULUS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. RUC/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS MOISTURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...SO
FORECAST IS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THERE AS WELL.

WHILE THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FEEL THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE STRONG CAP AT 800 MB SHOWN IN THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY TO BE DRY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MID SUMMER AVERAGES WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN AND LAKESHORES.

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. MEANWHILE A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A BATCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. CONSIDERED
ADDING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SCATTERED SPRINKLES WITH
THIS PERIOD OF LIFT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM WILL OPT TO LEAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE BURGEONING SSW RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND. MAY SEE A LITTLE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...NO WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY.

ON SUNDAY...A DYING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DECENT SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INPUT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE LOW...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCED A BIT ALONG POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS LATE IN THE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT...AND MORE POTENT...COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS DOES HINT
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP EAST OF OUR
CWA. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MAY FOCUS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MISS MOST OF OUR AREA. IN THIS CASE...WE
MAY HAVE TO RELY MOSTLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO FORCE
CONVECTION. TIME WILL TELL.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOUT 20C. THIS WOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PUT A LID
ON THE TEMPERATURE RISES...HOWEVER.

WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MAY SET OFF A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

EXPECT COOLER AND COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THERE WILL BE TWO FEATURES THAT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FIRST
FEATURE IS A NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. GREATEST
CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MAY
BRUSH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE FRONT MAY BE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL CREST THE PLAINS RIDGE MID WEEK...AND NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHICH IS WHERE CONVECTION
IS THE LIKELIEST. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE MOST ACTIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL WITH AREAS
UNDER CLOUDS POSSIBLY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE. WARMING ALOFT THROUGH
THE WEEK WILL LIKELY PUSH THE CWA BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. OVER
NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WITH THE COOLEST
AREAS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. NEAR THE LAKE SHORES...WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S...OVERNIGHT LOWS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE 3000 FT...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. THE EXCEPTION IS JWH...WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...WITH MVFR CIGS EVENTUALLY RISING TO VFR.

AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. LOCAL LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...BUT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

935 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND EAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE FRONT EASING ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH VIRGINIA...THOUGH STILL MOSTLY NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER. THE 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FARTHER NORTH TOWARD
MARYLAND...CLOSER TO WHERE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. ON WATER
VAPOR...THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...
AND A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON WATER VAPOR WAS APPARENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET AXIS AT 250MB MOVES EAST NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
FRONT NEARBY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS AND APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT LEAST AROUND 2 INCHES...SO MOISTURE REMAINS AMPLE.
MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
RAP...ALTHOUGH AS NOTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE DCAPE SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY LOW...BELOW 500J/KG...AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...MOSTLY AT OR
BELOW 10KT. WOULD ANTICIPATE A CHARACTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NUMEROUS IN
COVERAGE BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE FAIRLY ISOLATED...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING FAIRLY LOCAL DAMAGING WIND. SLIGHTLY BETTER
LOCATIONS FOR SUCH MAY BE THE FAR NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ITS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST...
WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG WITH THE 0-6KM
SHEAR...IN VICINITY OF 20KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT AND OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S...CLOSER TO 90 NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE THERE IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUN
FOR LONGER PERIODS. -DJF

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLD STORMS) AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY
AND A POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN VICINITY OF THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED/DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. -VINCENT

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

BY MONDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE GONE. HOWEVER... A
PIEDMONT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK HEATING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SE OF THE TRIAD REGION (OR ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH POSITION). HIGHS WILL WARM SOLIDLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OR MVFR VISBYS IN FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
(2000-3000 FT AGL) COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOME
LOCATIONS...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3000-4000 FT
AGL (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION). ISOLATED MVFR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH NOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 03Z
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT
THE FAY TAF SITE WHERE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER...SUSTAINED AT
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. GIVEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AREAS
OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISBYS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING).

LOOKING AHEAD:
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (18-03Z) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND EARLY MORNING (06-14Z) FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. -VINCENT

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1122 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. AFTER ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY
TODAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AND SOUTHWARD TREND TO
ALL THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES. CIG HAS LIFTED LOCALLY AND TO THE
EAST. WRN COS HAVE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP
THEM GET BRIGHTER AS WELL. THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE
DETAILS LATELY...LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IT/S FORECASTS.
WILL HOLD TIGHT TO THE LATEST VERSION THAT CONTINUES THE FORECAST
AS WE HAVE IT PAINTED ALREADY. BREAKS AND WIDESPREAD THINNING TO
THE CLOUDS IN THE NERN HALF OF THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE DRYING
IS ADVANCING SWWRD. WHILE THIS DRYING MAY NOT CONTINUE AT THE
CURRENT PACE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GET BETTER. STREETS OF
DIURNAL/CONVECTIVE CU IN THE NRN TIER AND OVER ALL OF WRN NY AT
THIS TIME COULD GROW TALL ENOUGH TO MAKE ISOLD SHRA/SPRINKLES THIS
AFTN.

WE WILL RECOVER QUITE BETTER THAN WE DID YESTERDAY...WHEN VERY FEW
PLACES GOT TO 70F. ONE MESO OB FROM LAPORTE SULLIVAN CO IS ALREADY
73F...AND IPT IS 70F. TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 OR A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE NERN AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN IS LIKELY. BUT WE
SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY OVER ALL THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SE AS A
SERIES OF FLAT WAVES ALOFT RIPPLE DOWN IN THE NW FLOW. WE BEGIN TO
WARM ADVECT WHICH HELPS ERODE STABILITY AND WARRANTS THE MENTION
OF A SHOWER OR STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW SREF POPS
ARE VERY HIGH...CATEGORICAL WHILE THE GMOS POPS SEEM MORE
REASONABLE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE.

WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING HELPING SUPPORT
OUR HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US OUT
TO THE ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW FEEDING DOWN INTO THE NERN US. AT
THE ONSET THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF WAVES
RIPPLING DOWN GIVING US CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DAILY THRU
AT LEAST TUES WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH AGREED ON TO SLIDE
THROUGH AND PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY DRYING.

FROM THERE THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS DRIES
US OUT WED THRU EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE GEFS ISN`T AS AGGRESSIVE
IN DRIVING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO
THE GEFS...WITH A MORE WNW FLOW ALOFT WHICH KEEPS US CLOSER TO THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE RING OF FIRE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. IN FACT THE ECMWF HAS IT WET TO VERY WET HERE
THURS THRU SATURDAY. SO CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY FADES
QUICKLY...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AS NOTED IN THE VAD WINDS FROM THE CCX
RADAR AND IN THE SFC OBS. WINDS ARE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NO NEED FOR
MENTIONS OF LLWS. MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NE
ATTM. HEATING AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
AND VSBY COULD COME QUICKLY TO MOST LOCATIONS...ESP THE SOUTH. IT
IS ALREADY VFR AT KIPT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE SRN TIER
BUT WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE WEST.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

927 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWERS SLIDING EAST AND A LITTLE SOUTH
ALONG THE JST-AOO-MDT CORRIDOR. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE HEADING WNW.
PATCHY DZ STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT CIGS ARE LIFTING NICELY OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. EVEN THE SHRA IN THE SOUTH ARE
MOVING SOUTHWARD. RUC AND HRRR TAKE THESE SHOWERS OFF TO THE
SOUTH...LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL DO SO. LARGE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALREADY EVIDENT IN SAT PICS OVER THE NRN
TIER. UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS...THERE ARE ALREADY STREETS OF
DIURNAL/CONVECTIVE CU IN TIOGA CO. WILL JUST MENTION AN ISOLD SHRA
IN THE NRN MTS FOR THE AFTN WITH THE DIURNAL CU ALREADY POPPING.

WE WILL RECOVER QUITE BETTER THAN WE DID YESTERDAY...WHEN VERY FEW
PLACES GOT TO 70F. TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 OR A LITTLE BETTER
IN THE NERN AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN IS LIKELY. BUT WE SHOULD
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING HELPING SUPPORT
OUR HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AS NOTED IN THE VAD WINDS FROM THE CCX
RADAR AND IN THE SFC OBS. WINDS ARE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NO NEED FOR
MENTIONS OF LLWS. MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NE
ATTM. HEATING AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
AND VSBY COULD COME QUICKLY TO MOST LOCATIONS...ESP THE SOUTH. IT
IS ALREADY VFR AT KIPT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE SRN TIER
BUT WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTN/EVENING.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

650 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
650 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH LATE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THEY WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT
UNCLEAR. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AND BKN CB AT BOTH KRST KLSE THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE 12Z...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

252 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE MOIST AS SHOWN BY THE GJT SOUNDING AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS. WATER VAPOR AND RUC13 PICKING UP A SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP BEST FORCING
FROM THIS WAVE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...RUC13 AND NAM12 ALSO SHOW INDICATIONS
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THIS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY AS
MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FETCH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

A COUPLE OF MINOR CHANGES SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD...OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE SENSIBLE WX PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE POSITION TO BRING A
STEADY STREAM OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SWRN U.S. INCLUDING ERN UT
AND WRN CO. IN THE MEANTIME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVES EWRD INTO SRN ALBERTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FLATTENS
THE RIDGE SOME AND RESULTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING
FROM SWRLY TO NWRLY BY TUES AFTERNOON. BUT LIKE STATED ABOVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT IS SEEN ON OUR SENSIBLE WX PATTERN. THIS HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION IS SEEN WED/THU AS A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INVADES THE REGION. HOWEVER IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO FIRE THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING LATE THIS MORNING.

AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS APPEARING OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS 18Z. BY MID-AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
RESULT IN FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. REGIONAL AIRPORTS WHICH ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO HIGHER TERRAIN FACE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22Z
TO 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE...BUT NOT FULLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...TGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

234 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING THIN CIRRUS TO ROTATE NORTHWEST
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME FLAT CU HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WRN QUARTER OF THE CWA ATOP A LEE TROUGH. TEMPS THUS FAR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WHERE THE RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN PLACE. THE SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THUS FAR...SO ONLY PORTIONS OF THE WARNING ARE
VERIFYING TO THIS POINT. HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW DESPITE THE HRRR GENERATING ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH (WHERE THE CU IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED).

FOR TONIGHT I WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOLLOWING LAST
NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT WITH LOW 100S ACROSS
THE BOARD...WARMEST EAST WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY IS. HAVE DEBATED
WHETHER TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW FOR GENERALLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS TODAY/S RED FLAG WARNING. THE FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACH CRITERIA BUT THE WINDS APPEAR A BIT TOO
LIGHT. WANT TO SEE HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT AS TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE
NEARLY IDENTICAL FOR MET CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
LITTLE CHANGES REGARDING THE AIRMASS ALOFT WITH SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS
EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY WITH
EASTERN LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SOME AFTER TUESDAY AS H5 HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO DECREASE...HOWEVER WITH RIDGING OF SOME FASHION EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...DEPENDING ON WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE TRAINING SHORTWAVE...WITH ECMWF FURTHER
SOUTH AND STRONGER. IGNORING THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. DEEP DRY LAYER TO 650MB
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THESE PERIODS. BASED ON SOUNDINGS ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY BE FAVORED...HOWEVER WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING QPF OF SOME SORT AROUND THE AREA SO
MEASURABLE PRECIP CANT BE RULED OUT. I DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CUT OFF FROM OUR AREA. WITH
STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA..CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER OUR CWA...SO I KEPT FORECAST DRY AFTER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

DUE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION VFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER 25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT BEFORE COMING
BACK UP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

DAILY RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (JUL 22)...
GOODLAND.....105 (1934)
HILL CITY....108 (1934)
BURLINGTON...104 (1990)
MCCOOK.......110 (1931)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107

DAILY RECORDS FOR MONDAY (JUL 23)...
GOODLAND.....110 (1936)
HILL CITY....107 (1940)
BURLINGTON...105 (1963)
MCCOOK.......106 (1940)
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........105

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-
029-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

125 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
WEATHER. MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR DAY TO DAY TEMPS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION INTO THE PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EC
SHOWS A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS...AND AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDING TO THE GFS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS
WITH THE EC. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES FROM DAYTIME THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HOT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT
COOLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING A DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DAILY RECORDS FOR SATURDAY (JUL 21)...
GOODLAND.....105 (2005)
HILL CITY....110 (1934)
BURLINGTON...103 (2005)
MCCOOK.......105 (2005)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........106

DAILY RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (JUL 22)...
GOODLAND.....105 (1934)
HILL CITY....108 (1934)
BURLINGTON...104 (1990)
MCCOOK.......110 (1931)
YUMA.........109
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-
029-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

148 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN HARLAN COUNTY AND EXPECT THESE TO
REMAIN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER PER
THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN INTO SW VA. EXTENSIVE AREA
OF LOW STRATUS NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN KY HAS THINNED AND
LIFTED...WITH AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS TAKING ITS PLACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE VA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE LIFTING
CEILINGS. CEILINGS HAVE RISEN WITH MVFR TO VFR PREVAILING AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS AT
VFR ACROSS ALL AREAS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
EXTENSIVE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70. WITH CLOUDS HOLDING DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY IT WILL NOT
TAKE TOO LONG FOR FOG TO BEGIN FORMING TONIGHT ONCE CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE S DAKOTA/NEB
BORDER...BUT WILL WAIT TILL DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT TO KVTN BEFORE ADDING IT. BASES SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH...HOWEVER VERY GUSTY WINDS /40+ KTS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
024>029-036>038-057>059-069>071-094.

AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

550 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM TO INLAND LOCATIONS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE MONDAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM...SKIES ARE LARGELY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS
TO A COMBINATION OF STABILIZING LAKE BREEZES AND FLATTENING/THINNING
DIURNAL CU. JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS LINGERS NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER IN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND EVEN THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH CONTINUED MIXING.

THIS EVENING...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER LAKES.
A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS SHOW BARELY MEASURABLE QPF WITH
THIS...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE FORECAST WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/UPPER LAKES AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THE CLOSEST OF WHICH IS NOW FALLING
APART AS IT WORKS INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HRRR BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT CONSIDERING THAT IT WAS OVERDONE THIS
AFTERNOON /WHEN IT ALSO TRIED TO DEVELOP SHOWERS/ WILL ONLY CARRY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

EVEN IF THIS FEATURE DOES NOT BRING SHOWERS...IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY
THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH A SSW FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES...AND IN THE UPPER 50
TO LOWER 60S INLAND. IT ALSO WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...THOUGH ANY PROLONGED CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

WHILE NO DISTINCT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON SUNDAY...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE...ENHANCING LAKE BREEZES NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE NAM/GFS
ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE RGEM...WITH BOTH THE
UKMET/EUROPEAN SHOWING LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH A STRONG LAKE-BREEZE LIKELY TO BE IN
PLACE...IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER NORTHWARD...WITH THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MODEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE GENERALLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG LEVEL. WHILE THE LACK OF
STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF STORMS...THE LAKE
BREEZE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY BRISK LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH
BUFFALO LIKELY TO GUST TO 25 MPH OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN BUFFALO METRO TO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S...WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY IN MORE INTERIOR SECTIONS WHICH
ARE LESS INFLUENCED BY A SW FLOW.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY NEARING SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FAIRLY COMPACT FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
THE FEATURE TO ITS NORTH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE. THAT...TOGETHER WITH THE WARM
LAKES...MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION IN THE WEE HOURS OF
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. SUCH NOCTURNAL
EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO FORECAST AND RARELY HANDLED WELL BY
MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN TOWARD SREF AND CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.

INSTABILITY ONLY INCREASES ON MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ONGOING OR
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION/LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE IN UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...SREF DATA HAS BEEN HINTING AT A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER SCENARIO WITH AMPLE 40KT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK /SEE TEXT AREA/
AND AGREE THERE IS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL ONLY DISCUSS THIS
AS A LOW PROB SCENARIO HERE AND NOT UPDATE THE HWO UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE IS SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION AND BEST SHEAR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR REGION UNTIL PAST
PEAK HEATING...ARRIVING TOWARD MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE BY AFTERNOON...LESS SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TYPE OF WIND
CAN PLAY HAVOC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR HINDERING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS
IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE TIMING...PROBABILITY AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF
OCCURRENCE...AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING CONVECTION BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATER TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL SITUATED UPSTREAM...BUT A DRYING
AIRMASS ALOFT SUGGESTS KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS
LIKE A LOCK WITH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HOWEVER POSE A PROBLEM. THE LATEST GFS ONCE
AGAIN SPORTS A DEEPENING LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...SOMETHING SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO ALTHOUGH
SLOWER...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION. WITH
SUCH UNCERTAINTY A WEEK OUT...WILL FORECAST CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD
AND THEREFORE MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
IS NO POINT IN TRYING TO PIN DOWN FEATURES WHICH ARE IN MODEL
FANTASY LAND AND NOT TRACKABLE.

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT THESE ARE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT AND IN THE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT JHW SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR AS THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE REACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...MID CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. AS LONG AS
THESE REMAIN THICK ENOUGH...THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. BUT IF A PROLONGED CLEARING DOES OCCUR AT JHW...THEN THERE
PROBABLY BE SOME FOG AS WELL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE...AND SHOWERS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW GAINS INFLUENCE OVER LINGER LAKE BREEZE AFFECTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LAKES SUNDAY...BUT FLOW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH WINDS MAY BUILD WAVES ON
LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

337 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A BRIEF CLEARING
TREND AS LAKE BREEZES PROGRESS INLAND...WHICH WILL EXPAND THE LAKE
SHADOW OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...AN INVERSION SHOWN BY
THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN PLACE AT AROUND 800
MB...PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING.

THIS EVENING...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER LAKES.
A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS SHOW MEAGER (BARELY MEASURABLE) QPF
WITH THIS...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE
FORECAST WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. THE HRRR
BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT CONSIDERING THE HRRR WAS OVERDONE THIS AFTERNOON (WHEN
IT ALSO TRIED TO DEVELOP SHOWERS) WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

EVEN IF THIS FEATURE DOES NOT BRING SHOWER...IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY
THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH A SSW FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES...AND IN THE UPPER 50
TO LOWER 60S INLAND. IT ALSO WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...THOUGH ANY PROLONGED CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS
LIKE A LOCK WITH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT THESE ARE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT AND IN THE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT JHW SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR AS THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE REACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE...AND SHOWERS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

140 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING...DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE MID
70S. MEANWHILE...LOWER CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHADOWING ON THE LAKES SHOULD EXPAND INLAND A
BIT AS THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...AND BASED ON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...UPDATE SCALES BACK
HIGHS A BIT TODAY...MAINLY IN AREAS OF MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE LOWER 80S JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WHILE THE INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN
THAT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP...IT APPEARS THAT A STRONG INVERSION
AT 800 MB SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WHILE THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE BREEZE...EXPECT THIS IS OVERDONE...WITH ANY SHOWER TO BE VERY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT COOLER AND COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT THESE ARE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT AND IN THE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT JHW SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT...EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR AS THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE REACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE...AND SHOWERS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1216 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT COOLER AND COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE 3000 FT...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. THE EXCEPTION IS JWH...WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...WITH MVFR CIGS EVENTUALLY RISING TO VFR.

AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

655 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND PRODUCING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED VERY NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS EVE. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH AND INCREASE COVERAGE. A WEAK...VIRTUALLY STATIONARY
FRONT...WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...FROM HARTSVILLE TO DILLON TO
WHITEVILLE TO BURGAW. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECT AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVE.

THE RISK FOR CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS YOU MOVE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA AS DRIER AIR TO OUR S AND SE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND
CIN VALUES POINT TO CONVECTION HAVING A MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING/SUSTAINING ANY DEPTH DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THUS...WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE...GRAND STRAND...WINYAH BAY
AND LOWER CAPE FEAR COAST WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SPRINKLE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVE.

INSTABILITY IS RESPECTABLE...UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED WET-MICROBURST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO PRECIPITATION
LOADING. A VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS THUS POSSIBLE AND
HAIL CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AND STABILIZE AFTER
SUNSET. STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AFTER DARK
TO COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD HELP KEEP MINIMUMS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAIN TWO
DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURES CONTROLLING COASTAL CAROLINAS WEATHER.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SW SFC FLOW VEERING AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WILL BE 15 TO
25 KTS SUN AFTN INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS MON AFTN AS THEY
VEER TOWARD THE NW. MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM EAST AND WEST EXPANDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING
THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO NORTH OF LOCAL CWA. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
RISE UP TO 595 DEM AND WILL SEE INCREASED BUT WEAKER SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO THE NORTH AND STRONG WESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
MORE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME...WITH BETTER CHC OVER NC. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WATERS. ALSO EXPECT OTHER
SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH FURTHER INLAND AND
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE PROFILES DO SHOW VERY MOIST
UPPER LEVELS WITH WINDS ABOVE H4 HAVING GOOD NW-N COMPONENT.
THEREFORE EXPECT PERIODS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD FILTER OUT SOME OF
THE SUN.

WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW...EXPECT WARM SUMMERTIME TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN 90 AND 95
MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ABOVE CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

LARGE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST INTO
FLORIDA WILL GET GRADUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS CANADA SHEARS OFF AND DROPS VORT IMPULSES INTO A BROAD
EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...W/NW FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COLUMN ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE. AT THE
SURFACE...LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AS
WELL...BUT NEAR SURFACE S/SW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...850MB TEMPS AROUND
20C...AND MOIST RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL CREATE DECENT CONVECTION
CHANCES EACH DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL OCCUR
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEEP W/NW FLOW THE SEA BREEZE WILL
REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST. PWATS OF TWO INCHES OR GREATER AND
HIGH THETA-E AIR COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUBTLE VORT IMPULSES WILL SPAWN CONVECTION EACH AFTN...BUT MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED AND WILL KEEP INHERITED
CHC-BY-DAY...SILENT-BY-NIGHT POP. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE ILM CWA. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GET HUNG UP JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS WILL STILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING WED/WED NIGHT. OVERALL POP WILL TREND DOWNWARD
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SCHC POP (SILENT BY DAY 6/7) FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
IN A STILL VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS.

850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST
DAYS EVEN WITH THE LIMITING IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER. MINS AT NIGHT
WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 70S...NEAR 80 SOME NIGHTS AT THE COAST.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION IS REALLY WANING AT THIS POINT...WITH MAINLY
VCSH ADVERTISED IN THE TAFS. THE HRRR MODEL DOES DEPICT ANOTHER
BATCH OF CONVECTION AROUND 05Z...MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE PROBABLY HAS BEEN OVERDONE...AND THE LATEST
HOURLY RUN DOES WEAKEN IT A BIT.

MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT...AREAS THAT RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL...MAINLY LBT...COULD
SEE SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. SUNDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...A BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY. LIKEWISE DEEP MOISTURE IS A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY...BUT STILL COULD SQUEEZE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE NEARLY PINNED
SEA BREEZE IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
CONSEQUENTLY...EITHER ARE THE WINDS. A MODEST NOCTURNAL JET WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT STILL THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE...15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD...AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FT THIS
EVE...THEN LOWERING BY ABOUT A FOOT INTO SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND
CAROLINAS. NAM SHOWING DECENT LOW LEVEL JETTING BOTH SUN AND MON
NIGHT BUT STRONGER MON NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE UP TO 25 TO
30 KTS. OVERALL EXPECT SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS SUNDAY INCREASING
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY AND VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
W-SW. EACH AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ON SHORE AND
GUSTIER CLOSE TO THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WNA SHOWING
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SECOND SWELLS MIXING WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SHOULD REACH UP TO 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT IN STRONGER W-SW WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH PERSISTENT SW RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC
WIND. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL OCCUR ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...EASING TO AROUND 10 KTS AND VEERING TO SLIGHTLY MORE
W/SW BY THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THESE SW WINDS WILL KEEP A 4-5FT/5SEC SW WIND WAVE ONGOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PERSISTENT FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SE GROUND SWELL PRESENT
WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM. SWELL INITIALLY OF 2FT/9SEC WILL BECOME
2FT/13 SEC BY THURSDAY. SEAS OF 3-5 FT TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE...BECOMING 2-3 FT THURSDAY THANKS TO EASING WINDS AND THE
LONGER PERIOD SWELL DECAYING MORE QUICKLY DUE TO OCEAN BOTTOM
FRICTION.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1244 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT GAVE MUCH OF THE AREA -SHRA/ISOLD T
THIS MORNING NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN/NORTHEAST IA. BACK
EDGE OF -SHRA ACTIVITY ASSOICIATED WITH THIS WAVE ALMOST CLEAR OF
THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST BY 2 PM. ATTENTION
THEN SHIFTS TOWARD ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SHRA/TS ACROSS SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS
SIGNAL IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO CARRY STRAIGHT-OUT 6SM -SHRA AFTER 06Z AT KRST AND AT KLSE
AFTER 08Z. NOT CONFIDENT AS TO THUNDER THREAT AS MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS OUT ACROSS SD/SOUTHWEST MN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A WATCH ON INTENSITY OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SD/SOUTHWEST MN AND
MAY HAVE TO ADD THUNDER IF WARRANTED. LOOKS LIKE SHRA SHOULD HANG
ON THROUGH 18Z...THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS