Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/16/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 201 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT THAT
HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING, THE 12Z OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT KRNO DROPPED 0.20 INCHES (TO 0.37 IN). WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE DISPLACED TO THE EAST, CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LOT SLOWER
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST,
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS, DECIDED TO TRIM BACK COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS MINERAL, EASTERN MONO AND SOUTHEASTERN CHURCHILL
COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF AROUND
500 J/KG. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE PULSE STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY, THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OREGON WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL SET UP AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE RENO CWA FROM TAHOE NORTHEAST TO WINNEMUCCA. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, ALLOWING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
MODEL PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 0.75 INCHES. THE EXISTING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-80 AND SCATTERED
STORMS SOUTH OF US-50. THE STORMS ACROSS MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES
WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE, WITH WET/DRY HYBRID STORMS CLOSER TO THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY BETWEEN I-80 AND US-50 (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).

THE WEAKNESS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST, USHERING IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RENO CWA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES, CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, THERE IS A
VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT EXTREME NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY AND THE
SURPRISE VALLEY COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SO A SLGT CHANCE WAS INTRODUCED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THOSE AREAS.
MYRICK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CREATE A DRY AND
STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SOME SOLUTIONS BRING
THE TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS MOVE IT WESTWARD AND
BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED WELL BY THE ONGOING
FORECAST.

ONE WILD CARD IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE FABIO COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FRIDAY. TWO RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS ARE THE ONLY ONES SHOWING THIS SOLUTION. WITH FABIO
CURRENTLY LOCATED 550 MILES SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA-CALIFORNIA CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. FOR NOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INTRODUCED FRIDAY FOR MONO
COUNTY. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM I-80
SOUTHWARD. IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS THE CIG/VSBYS SHOULD BE
AOA 5000/5 WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS.

FOR THE TERMINALS ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITIES OF KTRK..KTVL AND KRNO...WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KMMH.
JCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS TO ENCOMPASS EASTERN MONO COUNTY
INTO MINERAL AND EASTERN CHURCHILL COUNTIES. WITH PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION IT HAS SUPPRESSED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE GUSTS
WILL CORRESPOND WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10-15% WITH LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY. AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY, BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH LESS IN
SPEED.

A PIECE OF ENERGY AND WEAK DEFORMATION BAND WILL HELP TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 50 AND SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, SO STORMS THROUGH THIS AREA WILL BE WET.
NORTH AND WEST OF THERE, A HYBRID OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUTSIDE OF THE WET THUNDERSTORM
CORE. THIS COULD START NEW FIRES, BUT WITH THE SMALL AREA OF HYBRID
STORMS, AM NOT PLANNING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION, WATCHING HOW THE DRY AIR WORKING INTO CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA HAS SQUELCHED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED A BIT. DF

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TO OUR EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. SUNSHINE AND HOT
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE OVER
WISCONSIN WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS THE COMBINATION OF THE
DEPARTURE FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
SHORT WAVE RIDING WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHERE MOSUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL THIS SATURDAY MORNING.  ANTICIPATION IS FOR THE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...EXPECTATION IS FOR ADDITIONAL CU
TO DEVELOP.  LATEST RUN OF THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST SBCAPES WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING SLIGHTLY BETTER
THAN 6 C/KM IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.  IF CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP...THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES /TERRAIN/ WOULD LIKELY BE THE
FIRST TO OBSERVE AS SUGGESTED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS.  SO FOR THIS UPDATE...PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE PREVIOUSLY ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS
ALONE AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 8 AM...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AS ONGOING CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS.  H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN NY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.  THEREAFTER...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD DECREASE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT COMPLETELY.  THE COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING.  SPEAKING
OF HEATING...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SOME IMPROVEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED...WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND H850 TEMPS AROUND
+18C...IT LOOKS AS IF WE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES...MID
TO UPPER 80S HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO
APPROACH BUT NOT QUITE REACHING 100 DEGREES. NO HEAT HEADLINES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL REFERENCE THE HEAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO
APPROACH OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. SLIGHTLY
DELAYED POPS TONIGHT AS IT MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH THE REGION.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKED A LITTLE MORE PROMISING TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION. IT CONTAINS A WEAK SIGNATURE OF A H
H850 SPEED MAX (NOSE OF A JET) AS WELL AS A THETA-E RIDGE POKING
INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE ESPECIALLY THE
LATEST NAM  HAVE BACK OFF THE QPF SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2.00 INCHES.

THAT SAID...WE ACTUALLY RAISED POPS TO LIKELY (60) SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT KEPT THE POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD
FOR NOW.

INITIALLY...SHOWALTER VALUES OF THE NAM WERE BELOW 0...IMPLYING
INSTABILITY FROM THE H850 LEVEL UPWARD TONIGHT. LATER...THE VALUES
WERE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ZERO. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY.

WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...LEANED WITH THE LOWER MET
GUIDANCE REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST
AROUND 5.5C/KM. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KTS AND ANY HEATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON...COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY SUB-SEVERE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE EAST EVEN BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST IF NOT
ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEPART DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...THE SKY LOOKS TO CLEAR. HOWEVER...WITH
LIGHT WIND...THIS COULD THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY GOOD PATCHY FOG.
HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE A RETURN TO HOT CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CRACK
90 IN MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE 65
TO 70 RANGE.

OVERALL WENT WITH A MET/MAV BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK...THEN THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND HPC THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...
AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ANY SCT CONVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LINE UP WEST TO EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...AND BE
SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
FORECAST 35 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS LINGERING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THAT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT VERY WARM WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL SHOW A WIDE RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE PASSAGE...RANGING TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ANY HEAT INDICES IN THE MID OR UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
MUCH MORE SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KALB TAF SITE
/INCLUDING THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION/ WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD (UNTIL ABOUT 15Z). THE SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPSF AND HAVE INDICATED A TEMP GROUP THERE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
14Z. PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS REMAIN TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
ANY MENTION AT KGFL OR KPOU FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.

BESIDES THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z SUNDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR
LESS....AND MAINLY CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TODAY...WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL FAIL TO RECEIVE 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS OUR REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING 0.25 INCHES OR MORE...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING DRY HOT WEATHER.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND REMAIN
ELEVATED 60 TO 80 PERCENT MOST OF SUNDAY.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY...DESPITE NO
MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

DURING THE PAST MONTH...ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD ONLY
RECEIVED 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL. AT MY COCORAHS SITE (0.5SW ALBANY)
I HAD ONLY RECEIVED 0.12 INCHES!

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY
ON SATURDAY...COULD PRODUCE VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN
INCH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL BASIN AVERAGE WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 0.25
INCHES WITH NO EFFECT ON THE SLUGGISH WATERSHEDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A AVERAGE RIVER BASIN QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCALITIES COULD
RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM DOWNPOURS. FURTHER
NORTH...FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...IT LOOKS AS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE RIVER BASIN.

EITHER WAY...EVEN THESE RAIN WILL BE ONLY MINOR RELIEF FROM OUR
INCREASE DRY SPELL...WITH NO RISES ON ANY RIVERS EXPECTED.

AFTER SUNDAY...OUR NEXT CHANCE OF ANY REAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRETTY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

 828 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2012

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
During Sun eve, the dry mid-upper troposphere limited the overall
coverage and intensity of deep moist convection seen on previous
nights. The late east coast sea breeze remained shallow and will
continue to dissipate during next few hours. Overnight, any
convection should be relegated to the coastal waters. Low tonight
will be typical for this time of year, in the lower to mid 70s. NM4,
WRF, NARRE and VSREF all imply patchy fog or better Ern most
counties after 06z so update will reflect same.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Next 24 hrs]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by trough over wrn
most states, ridging over plains trough over great lakes and a
TUTT ("Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough") currently spinning to
the east of FL/GA coast. Satellite pix show lot of the convection
near or east of the TUTT axis and dry air to its west. An upper
level trough extends SW from TUTT to over S FL and towards the
Yucatan. This combination allowed a mid to upper dry slot with weak
subsidence and dry air to push across the local area. At surface,
weak and broad surface reflection of TUTT and a high over local
region will maintain a very weak steering flow across the area.

This TUTT and assocd upper/surface trough are expected to slowly
drift to the WSW reaching near Apalachee Bay by Tuesday afternoon.
This will nudge the surface ridge swd. The key local forecast
question is how fast the pocket of mid-upper level dry air will be
eroded by the approaching trough. The models are not in agreement
with speed and thus amount of POPs on Mon. CAM quite dry while GFS
and RUC both indicate that should occur as early as overnight, with
PWATS reaching values much closer to climatological normals by
Monday. For now we expect more isolated activity (20-30% PoPs) in
the NW half of the area, with scattered to numerous storms (45-60%
PoPs) around the Florida Big Bend near Apalachee Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...[Beginning 00z Mon]
Some of the high resolution NWP indicate the potential for low
clouds/fog around KVLD and KABY early Monday morning and will show
this in TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conds thru the period except for brief
MVFR in any showers or storms during the aftn. Will go with prob30
tstms for KTLH and KVLD and VCTS at KECP and KABY 18z-23z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Very benign weather pattern for the marine forecast in terms of
winds and seas. Weak surface pressure pattern should keep winds at
or below 10 knots, and seas should therefore be 2 feet or less.
The approaching upper level low for Monday and Tuesday may begin
to increase thunderstorm coverage over the waters early this week,
particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

BLOCK/LERICOS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 514 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
210 PM CDT

CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND THEN HOT TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHEARED OUT UPPER IMPULSE AND
AN ELEVATED /850-700MB/ WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN
A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER MODIFIED AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND RAP
ANALYSIS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REGENERATE WITH THE FURTHER FOCI OF BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE DIVERGENT VELOCITY SIGNATURES
ON RADAR UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS WITHIN JUST TWO RADAR
VCPS...SHOWING THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL
DCAPE VALUES ANALYZED BY THE RAP OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG ARE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SEVERE GUST...INCLUDING IN NEARSHORE AREAS OF THE LAKE IN
ANY STORMS THAT DRIFT NORTHEAST OVER THAT AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AS PART OF THE LARGER BROAD
TROUGH...IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH THIS IS HELPING
TO FOCUS SOME SCATTERED STORMS...WITH SIMILAR ML INSTABILITY OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS AS CONVERGENCE IMPROVES...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY POTENTIALLY BE ALONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ALREADY INTO
NORTHWEST IL. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS DO KEY IN ON SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL APPROACH...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF SEMI-DECENT 30 KT PROJECTED...THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO HANG ON LATER INTO THE EVENING.

THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WASHING OUT AS IT DOES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE. THIS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE MODEST
INSTABILITY...BUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A ROGUE LATE AFTERNOON CELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PROVIDING SOME COOLING FOR
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND NEARBY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE LAKE
SHORE AREAS STILL MAY REACH 90 OR NEAR IT BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHES THROUGH.

MTF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.  A WEAKENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ITS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF.  GIVEN ISSUES WITH THE GFS LATELY...AND THE ECMWF HAVING
VERY CONSISTENT TIMING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...GOING WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN IL.
THEREFORE...KEPT BEST PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF I-80.  LIMITED ACTUAL
PRECIP CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
RANDOM PERIODS OF PRECIP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH NO CLEAR SOURCE OF FORCING...QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE
SOURCES...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS...DECIDED TO KEEP THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED DRY.  AT THIS POINT THE BIGGER CRIME IS GETTING FOLKS
HOPES UP FOR RAIN ONLY TO DISAPPOINT.

HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING TO BE A BIT COOLER.  HOWEVER 850 HPA
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SW
OF THE CWA.  THEREFORE...THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING ACROSS IMMEDIATE TERMINAL AREAS...WITH
  FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF
  ORD/MDW NEXT FEW HOURS.

* OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE DISTURBED WIND FIELD GENERALLY EAST-
  SOUTHEAST SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
  EARLY EVENING...THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT.
MORNING TSRA SERVED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TEMPORARILY. SO
FAR THINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER. THE TSRA ACTIVITY IN EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA IS ALSO HELPING TO SLOW
REDEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
STILL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR TSRA AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TSRA MENTION IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING TO LATER...WHICH
SHORTENS THE TIME FRAME...AND WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED. THE
QUESTION IS THE WHETHER THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS ORD OR MDW.

PAW

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS OUTSIDE OF LINGERING
  OUTFLOW EFFECTS.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/TSRA TRENDS.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL STEER A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE SOME SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTY BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT. THESE WILL
BE MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE INCLUDING
NEAR SHORE AREAS OF IL...IN...AND SOUTHWEST MI. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND BEGIN TURNING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ALREADY BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MON...WITH OPEN WATER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY REACHING
30 KT DURING MON NIGHT. A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 302 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONTINUE...WITH VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE NW THIS MORNING SHOWING UP AS A LITTLE WEAK VORTEX ON VIS
SAT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THAT...HAVE MADE A COUPLE
OF CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THAT...FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY BEYOND TONIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COMES MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ECMWF NOW HAVING SIMILAR ISSUE TO
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...SO KEEP SCALING BACK THE EXTENDED
POPS

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
FIRST CONCERN IS THE SMALL VORTEX TO THE NW MOVING NEAR THE REGION
IN THE OVERNIGHT. NEITHER HRRR NOR THE 4KM WRF ARE PICKING UP ON
THE SYSTEM...BUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS NOW BEEN A BIT
ALTERED... PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FEEL LESS
LIKE THE SHOWERS AFTER 00Z WILL BE LIMITED TO REMNANTS FROM
TODAY...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT. IN ANY SPOTS THAT CLEAR OUT IN THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SIGNIF INCREASED BY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING...AND HAVE PLACED THE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS... MAINLY EAST OF I-55. TOMORROW...IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING SHOWERS...SOME SMALL POPS MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THESE POPS ARE MOSTLY A PRODUCT OF PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THE ACTIVITY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP THEM IN FOR ANY
LINGERING OVERNIGHT PRECIP...BUT MOSTLY REFLECTIVE OF EARLY IN THE
DAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SCATTERED PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE
DROUGHT OVER THE REGION... PARTICULARLY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE WESTERN CONUS YET AGAIN...AND PUSHING 850MB TEMPS UP AND SFC
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS KEEP
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER IN ABSENCE OF REAL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN EXTENDED COME WITH WED NIGHT AND A PASSING TROF/SFC
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH THE 500MB FLOW ALONG THE
US/CAN BORDER. THIS FAR SOUTH...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF SFC CONVERGENCE. HAVE PULLED
BACK THE BLENDED POPS WHEREVER POSSIBLE. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ALL THAT IS LIKELY IN THIS FORECAST...A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
AREA WILL SEE THE PRECIP.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. BEST T-STORM COVERAGE FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR
KDEC/KCMI ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE AND HAVE TEMPO THUNDER HERE. BY
MID AFTERNOON AIRMASS OVER WESTERN TAF SITES WILL HAVE RECOVERED
FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND HAVE VCTS UNTIL 02Z. IN ANY STORMS
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 1SM AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH CHANCES OF THIS HITTING A TAF SITE VERY LOW. THEN
FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY ONLY EXPECT SCATTED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SITES THAT GET RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT IN LIGHT WIND REGIME AND CURRENTLY
HAVE REDUCED TO 3SM FOR KPIA/KCMI 09-13Z SUNDAY.

25
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
210 PM CDT

CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND THEN HOT TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHEARED OUT UPPER IMPULSE AND
AN ELEVATED /850-700MB/ WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN
A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER MODIFIED AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND RAP
ANALYSIS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REGENERATE WITH THE FURTHER FOCI OF BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE DIVERGENT VELOCITY SIGNATURES
ON RADAR UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS WITHIN JUST TWO RADAR
VCPS...SHOWING THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL
DCAPE VALUES ANALYZED BY THE RAP OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG ARE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SEVERE GUST...INCLUDING IN NEARSHORE AREAS OF THE LAKE IN
ANY STORMS THAT DRIFT NORTHEAST OVER THAT AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AS PART OF THE LARGER BROAD
TROUGH...IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH THIS IS HELPING
TO FOCUS SOME SCATTERED STORMS...WITH SIMILAR ML INSTABILITY OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS AS CONVERGENCE IMPROVES...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY POTENTIALLY BE ALONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ALREADY INTO
NORTHWEST IL. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS DO KEY IN ON SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL APPROACH...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF SEMI-DECENT 30 KT PROJECTED...THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO HANG ON LATER INTO THE EVENING.

THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WASHING OUT AS IT DOES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE. THIS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE MODEST
INSTABILITY...BUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A ROGUE LATE AFTERNOON CELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PROVIDING SOME COOLING FOR
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND NEARBY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE LAKE
SHORE AREAS STILL MAY REACH 90 OR NEAR IT BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHES THROUGH.

MTF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.  A WEAKENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ITS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF.  GIVEN ISSUES WITH THE GFS LATELY...AND THE ECMWF HAVING
VERY CONSISTENT TIMING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...GOING WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN IL.
THEREFORE...KEPT BEST PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF I-80.  LIMITED ACTUAL
PRECIP CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
RANDOM PERIODS OF PRECIP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH NO CLEAR SOURCE OF FORCING...QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE
SOURCES...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS...DECIDED TO KEEP THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED DRY.  AT THIS POINT THE BIGGER CRIME IS GETTING FOLKS
HOPES UP FOR RAIN ONLY TO DISAPPOINT.

HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING TO BE A BIT COOLER.  HOWEVER 850 HPA
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SW
OF THE CWA.  THEREFORE...THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* TSRA IN THE AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
  THROUGH 21Z.

* WINDS VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO TSRA IN THE AREA.
  BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE EVENING.


PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT.
MORNING TSRA SERVED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TEMPORARILY. SO
FAR THINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER. THE TSRA ACTIVITY IN EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA IS ALSO HELPING TO SLOW
REDEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
STILL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR TSRA AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TSRA MENTION IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING TO LATER...WHICH
SHORTENS THE TIME FRAME...AND WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED. THE
QUESTION IS THE WHETHER THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS ORD OR MDW.

PAW

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TREND.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND TREND.

PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL STEER A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE SOME SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTY BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT. THESE WILL
BE MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE INCLUDING
NEAR SHORE AREAS OF IL...IN...AND SOUTHWEST MI. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND BEGIN TURNING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ALREADY BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MON...WITH OPEN WATER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY REACHING
30 KT DURING MON NIGHT. A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 211 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
210 PM CDT

CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND THEN HOT TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHEARED OUT UPPER IMPULSE AND
AN ELEVATED /850-700MB/ WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN
A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER MODIFIED AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND RAP
ANALYSIS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REGENERATE WITH THE FURTHER FOCI OF BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE DIVERGENT VELOCITY SIGNATURES
ON RADAR UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS WITHIN JUST TWO RADAR
VCPS...SHOWING THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL
DCAPE VALUES ANALYZED BY THE RAP OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG ARE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SEVERE GUST...INCLUDING IN NEARSHORE AREAS OF THE LAKE IN
ANY STORMS THAT DRIFT NORTHEAST OVER THAT AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AS PART OF THE LARGER BROAD
TROUGH...IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH THIS IS HELPING
TO FOCUS SOME SCATTERED STORMS...WITH SIMILAR ML INSTABILITY OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS AS CONVERGENCE IMPROVES...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY POTENTIALLY BE ALONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ALREADY INTO
NORTHWEST IL. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS DO KEY IN ON SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL APPROACH...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF SEMI-DECENT 30 KT PROJECTED...THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO HANG ON LATER INTO THE EVENING.

THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WASHING OUT AS IT DOES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE. THIS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE MODEST
INSTABILITY...BUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A ROGUE LATE AFTERNOON CELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PROVIDING SOME COOLING FOR
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND NEARBY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE LAKE
SHORE AREAS STILL MAY REACH 90 OR NEAR IT BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHES THROUGH.

MTF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.  A WEAKENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ITS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF.  GIVEN ISSUES WITH THE GFS LATELY...AND THE ECMWF HAVING
VERY CONSISTENT TIMING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...GOING WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN IL.
THEREFORE...KEPT BEST PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF I-80.  LIMITED ACTUAL
PRECIP CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
RANDOM PERIODS OF PRECIP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH NO CLEAR SOURCE OF FORCING...QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE
SOURCES...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS...DECIDED TO KEEP THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED DRY.  AT THIS POINT THE BIGGER CRIME IS GETTING FOLKS
HOPES UP FOR RAIN ONLY TO DISAPPOINT.

HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING TO BE A BIT COOLER.  HOWEVER 850 HPA
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SW
OF THE CWA.  THEREFORE...THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

* LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE TERMINALS AND
  SHIFT WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT.
MORNING TSRA SERVED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TEMPORARILY. SO
FAR THINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER. THE TSRA ACTIVITY IN EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA IS ALSO HELPING TO SLOW
REDEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
STILL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR TSRA AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TSRA MENTION IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING TO LATER...WHICH
SHORTENS THE TIME FRAME...AND WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED. THE
QUESTION IS THE WHETHER THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS ORD OR MDW.

PAW

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER
  IT WILL MOVE INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE TERMINALS.

PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL STEER A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE SOME SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTY BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT. THESE WILL
BE MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE INCLUDING
NEAR SHORE AREAS OF IL...IN...AND SOUTHWEST MI. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND BEGIN TURNING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ALREADY BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MON...WITH OPEN WATER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY REACHING
30 KT DURING MON NIGHT. A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1100 AM CDT

GOING GENERAL FORECAST IDEA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTED BY LATEST TRENDS. ALL IN ALL JUST
MINOR TWEAKS MADE MAINLY BASED ON THERMAL INFLUENCE OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION.

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FOR SUMMERTIME SEEN ON THE WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING REMAINS LITTERED WITH EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. ONE SUCH IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
IL EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BECOME SHEARED OUT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WEAKENED RATHER QUICKLY AS A
RESULT. THE 850-700MB CONVERGENT ZONE/TROUGH MENTIONED IN PREV
DISCUSSION IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS. OUTFLOW FROM THE DECAYED CONVECTION SEEN
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR HAS PUSHED EAST AND IS LOCATED
FROM PORTER COUNTY INDIANA SOUTHWEST TOWARD CHAMPAIGN-URBANA.
CELLS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP LOOKS TO HAVE ERODED. THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD POOL BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SHALLOW PER PROFILER WIND FIELD...AND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXISTS ABOVE THIS LAYER PER ILX
SOUNDING AND RAP ANALYSIS. SO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT FROM WHERE
EARLIER CONVECTION DECAYED/ALONG THE 850-700MB CONVERGENT AXIS AND
EASTWARD REMAINS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT
SHOULD ONLY AID THIS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 700-1000 J/KG ON
RAP ANALYSIS WOULD FAVOR SOME STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN STORMS.

BACK TO THE WEST...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AIDED BY A BETTER
DEFINED SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN WI MOVING SOUTHEAST. INHIBITION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY PER
MODIFIED 12Z DVN SOUNDING. SO EXPECT THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AS AREAS
OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL DESTABILIZE. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY EARLY EVENING.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME NEAR PONTIAC AND STREATOR WHERE
MID CLOUD LOOKS TO BE MOST PERSISTENT AND RESIDUAL COLD POOL WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO WARM. MUCH OF THE CHICAGO AREA LOOKS
TO REACH NEAR 90 WITH ONLY LIMITED LAKE INFLUENCE DUE TO 5-10 MPH
OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT PRESENT.

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING ARE PRECIP/CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTER AND LESS INTENSE BOUT OF HEAT
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWING
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL
SMALLER VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. THE RATHER
WEAK AND SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED FORCING IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STORMS ARE
FIRING UP NOW IN VICINITY OF 850MB TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS. LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WHICH IF IT VERIFIES WOULD ALSO LIKELY SPELL THE SLOW DEMISE OR AT
LEAST WEAKENING OF THIS CURRENT CONVECTION.

FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE ALTO STRATUS OVER WESTERN
IL/EASTERN MO IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY RETARD
HEATING TODAY LIMITING INSTABILITY. WHERE MIXED SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR
EXPECT SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO SUPPORT
RENEWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SEEMS LIKE IT MAY TEND TO FAVOR OUR EASTERN CWA AND POTENTIALLY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MIGRATES EASTWARD.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN DRIER AND HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MID TO UPPER 90S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK. WEAK COLD FRONT LIKELY TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...AS
WELL AS AN INCREASED THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

* LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE TERMINALS AND
  SHIFT WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT.
MORNING TSRA SERVED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TEMPORARILY. SO
FAR THINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER. THE TSRA ACTIVITY IN EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA IS ALSO HELPING TO SLOW
REDEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
STILL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR TSRA AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TSRA MENTION IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING TO LATER...WHICH
SHORTENS THE TIME FRAME...AND WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED. THE
QUESTION IS THE WHETHER THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS ORD OR MDW.

PAW


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER
  IT WILL MOVE INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE TERMINALS.

PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
303 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS TURNING ONSHORE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
DAKOTAS  TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTS COULD PUSH 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PASSES AND A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND
THE LOW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE.

MDB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1107 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1100 AM CDT

GOING GENERAL FORECAST IDEA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTED BY LATEST TRENDS. ALL IN ALL JUST
MINOR TWEAKS MADE MAINLY BASED ON THERMAL INFLUENCE OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION.

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FOR SUMMERTIME SEEN ON THE WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING REMAINS LITTERED WITH EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. ONE SUCH IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
IL EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BECOME SHEARED OUT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WEAKENED RATHER QUICKLY AS A
RESULT. THE 850-700MB CONVERGENT ZONE/TROUGH MENTIONED IN PREV
DISCUSSION IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS. OUTFLOW FROM THE DECAYED CONVECTION SEEN
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR HAS PUSHED EAST AND IS LOCATED
FROM PORTER COUNTY INDIANA SOUTHWEST TOWARD CHAMPAIGN-URBANA.
CELLS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP LOOKS TO HAVE ERODED. THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD POOL BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SHALLOW PER PROFILER WIND FIELD...AND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXISTS ABOVE THIS LAYER PER ILX
SOUNDING AND RAP ANALYSIS. SO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT FROM WHERE
EARLIER CONVECTION DECAYED/ALONG THE 850-700MB CONVERGENT AXIS AND
EASTWARD REMAINS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT
SHOULD ONLY AID THIS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 700-1000 J/KG ON
RAP ANALYSIS WOULD FAVOR SOME STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN STORMS.

BACK TO THE WEST...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AIDED BY A BETTER
DEFINED SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN WI MOVING SOUTHEAST. INHIBITION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY PER
MODIFIED 12Z DVN SOUNDING. SO EXPECT THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AS AREAS
OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL DESTABILIZE. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY EARLY EVENING.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME NEAR PONTIAC AND STREATOR WHERE
MID CLOUD LOOKS TO BE MOST PERSISTENT AND RESIDUAL COLD POOL WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO WARM. MUCH OF THE CHICAGO AREA LOOKS
TO REACH NEAR 90 WITH ONLY LIMITED LAKE INFLUENCE DUE TO 5-10 MPH
OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT PRESENT.

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING ARE PRECIP/CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTER AND LESS INTENSE BOUT OF HEAT
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWING
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL
SMALLER VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. THE RATHER
WEAK AND SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED FORCING IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STORMS ARE
FIRING UP NOW IN VICINITY OF 850MB TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS. LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WHICH IF IT VERIFIES WOULD ALSO LIKELY SPELL THE SLOW DEMISE OR AT
LEAST WEAKENING OF THIS CURRENT CONVECTION.

FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE ALTO STRATUS OVER WESTERN
IL/EASTERN MO IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY RETARD
HEATING TODAY LIMITING INSTABILITY. WHERE MIXED SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR
EXPECT SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO SUPPORT
RENEWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SEEMS LIKE IT MAY TEND TO FAVOR OUR EASTERN CWA AND POTENTIALLY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MIGRATES EASTWARD.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN DRIER AND HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MID TO UPPER 90S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK. WEAK COLD FRONT LIKELY TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...AS
WELL AS AN INCREASED THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING IN THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE TERMINALS AND
  SHIFT WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE DAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSES SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ON AND OFF TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM JUST NORTH OF ORD
BACK TO VYS TO PIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING BUT MAY START TO FADE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT
APPROACHES THE CHI AREA TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER FORCING WILL
CONTINUE RESULTING IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IN
ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A LAKE BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO FORM
AND WORK INLAND OFFERING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR TSRA.
HOWEVER...THE LAKE BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP GIVEN POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY. IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
CAN DIMINISH THEN THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF FORCING
MECHANISMS DRAWS NEARER AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. GIVEN THE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA OCCURRENCE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND HOW DIRECTLY THE TERMINALS WILL BE
AFFECTED...WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VCTS IN THE TAF AND
ADD DETAIL WITH PREVAILING/TEMPO TSRA AS THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR
IN THE NEAR TERM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FESTERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLIER STORMS HAS TURNED THEM NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHI METRO AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE BEFORE TOO LONG. EXPECT A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO TAKE OVER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO CROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN HOW HIGH THE POTENTIAL IS. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE EVENING UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS
AND PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP BY EARLY
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
  WHETHER IT MOVES INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE TERMINALS.


PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
303 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS TURNING ONSHORE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
DAKOTAS  TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTS COULD PUSH 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PASSES AND A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND
THE LOW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE.

MDB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1100 AM CDT

GOING GENERAL FORECAST IDEA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTED BY LATEST TRENDS. ALL IN ALL JUST
MINOR TWEAKS MADE MAINLY BASED ON THERMAL INFLUENCE OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION.

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FOR SUMMERTIME SEEN ON THE WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING REMAINS LITTERED WITH EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. ONE SUCH IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
IL EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BECOME SHEARED OUT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WEAKENED RATHER QUICKLY AS A
RESULT. THE 850-700MB CONVERGENT ZONE/TROUGH MENTIONED IN PREV
DISCUSSION IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS. OUTFLOW FROM THE DECAYED CONVECTION SEEN
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR HAS PUSHED EAST AND IS LOCATED
FROM PORTER COUNTY INDIANA SOUTHWEST TOWARD CHAMPAIGN-URBANA.
CELLS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP LOOKS TO HAVE ERODED. THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD POOL BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SHALLOW PER PROFILER WIND FIELD...AND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXISTS ABOVE THIS LAYER PER ILX
SOUNDING AND RAP ANALYSIS. SO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT FROM WHERE
EARLIER CONVECTION DECAYED/ALONG THE 850-700MB CONVERGENT AXIS AND
EASTWARD REMAINS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT
SHOULD ONLY AID THIS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 700-1000 J/KG ON
RAP ANALYSIS WOULD FAVOR SOME STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN STORMS.

BACK TO THE WEST...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AIDED BY A BETTER
DEFINED SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN WI MOVING SOUTHEAST. INHIBITION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY PER
MODIFIED 12Z DVN SOUNDING. SO EXPECT THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AS AREAS
OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL DESTABILIZE. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY EARLY EVENING.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME NEAR PONTIAC AND STREATOR WHERE
MID CLOUD LOOKS TO BE MOST PERSISTENT AND RESIDUAL COLD POOL WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO WARM. MUCH OF THE CHICAGO AREA LOOKS
TO REACH NEAR 90 WITH ONLY LIMITED LAKE INFLUENCE DUE TO 5-10 MPH
OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT PRESENT.

MTF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING ARE PRECIP/CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTER AND LESS INTENSE BOUT OF HEAT
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWING
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL
SMALLER VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. THE RATHER
WEAK AND SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED FORCING IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STORMS ARE
FIRING UP NOW IN VICINITY OF 850MB TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS. LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WHICH IF IT VERIFIES WOULD ALSO LIKELY SPELL THE SLOW DEMISE OR AT
LEAST WEAKENING OF THIS CURRENT CONVECTION.

FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE ALTO STRATUS OVER WESTERN
IL/EASTERN MO IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY RETARD
HEATING TODAY LIMITING INSTABILITY. WHERE MIXED SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR
EXPECT SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO SUPPORT
RENEWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SEEMS LIKE IT MAY TEND TO FAVOR OUR EASTERN CWA AND POTENTIALLY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MIGRATES EASTWARD.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN DRIER AND HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MID TO UPPER 90S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK. WEAK COLD FRONT LIKELY TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...AS
WELL AS AN INCREASED THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* SHRA/TSRA IN THE AREA WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
  REDEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
  SOME VARIABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO SHRA IN THE AREA.

* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE TERMINALS AND
  SHIFT WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE DAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSES SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ON AND OFF TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM JUST NORTH OF ORD
BACK TO VYS TO PIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING BUT MAY START TO FADE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT
APPROACHES THE CHI AREA TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER FORCING WILL
CONTINUE RESULTING IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IN
ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A LAKE BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO FORM
AND WORK INLAND OFFERING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR TSRA.
HOWEVER...THE LAKE BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP GIVEN POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY. IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
CAN DIMINISH THEN THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF FORCING
MECHANISMS DRAWS NEARER AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. GIVEN THE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA OCCURRENCE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND HOW DIRECTLY THE TERMINALS WILL BE
AFFECTED...WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VCTS IN THE TAF AND
ADD DETAIL WITH PREVAILING/TEMPO TSRA AS THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR
IN THE NEAR TERM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FESTERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLIER STORMS HAS TURNED THEM NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHI METRO AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE BEFORE TOO LONG. EXPECT A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO TAKE OVER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO CROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN HOW HIGH THE POTENTIAL IS. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE EVENING UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS
AND PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP BY EARLY
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
  WHETHER IT MOVES INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE TERMINALS.

PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
303 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS TURNING ONSHORE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
DAKOTAS  TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTS COULD PUSH 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PASSES AND A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND
THE LOW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE.

MDB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM CHCS AND FOG MAIN ITEMS FOR 18Z TAFS. PCPN SHIELD
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING SWD PASSING NEAR
KDBQ AND KCID TERMINALS ATTIM. HAVE GONE WITH VCTS WORDING AT BOTH
SITES UNTIL 19Z AS MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS PUSHES SOUTH
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REST OF THIS AFTN. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS
WORDING FOR A FEW HRS MID TO LATE AFTN AT KMLI AND KBRL AHEAD OF
THE OUTFLOW. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY DUE TO LOWER
VSBYS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT E OF AREA THIS EVE ALONG WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH PCPN ENDING. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE FOG OVRNGT INTO EARLY SUN AM WITH MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

UPDATE...
LINE OF STORMS SAGGING INTO NW CWA ATTIM. HAVE RAISED POPS
MAINLY N/NW SECTIONS REST OF TDY WHERE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT
PROGGED IN FORM OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ISOLD SEVERE STORM
WITH STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE
NOT OUT OF QUESTION IN MAINLY PULSE TYPE ENVIRONMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

UPDATE...
THE FCST WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

CONVECTION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND SHOULD END OR EXIT THE CWFA
AROUND MID MORNING. THE NEXT VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND HELP INITIATE NEW
CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.   08

AVIATION...
MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z/14. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/15. VCSH WILL SLOWLY END
PRIOR TO 18Z WITH NEW CONVECTION STARTING AROUND 18Z/14 AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. VCTS WAS ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DIURNAL CONVECTION. CIGS WITH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/15 LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP.        08

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL SUBTLE TROFS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BACK
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A COLLAPSING MESOHIGH NEAR KRST. DEW POINTS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS OVERALL
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION SINCE MIDNIGHT HAS EITHER ENDED OR DIMINISHED TO
SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHRA. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ELEVATED CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED OR DEVELOPED. RAP TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850MB IN RELATIVELY
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX THAT IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI. RAP
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE CWFA AROUND
MID MORNING.

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST OR POSSIBLY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE
TROF FROM NORTHERN IOWA.

FROM LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE CWFA.
BASED ON THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE VORT MAXES AND NEGATIVE THETA
E LAPSE RATES...AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION. THUS THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS.              ..08..

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HEAT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE EDGES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA TEMP
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MAINLY MID 90S FOR
MONDAY. HELD DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S BOTH DAYS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO AROUND 100 RANGE BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEVELOPING TROF OVER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT
WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE EARLY WEEK HEAT AND IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE FORECAST WAS SKEWED
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. ALSO MODELS
ARE SHOWING WARM MID LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SUGGESTING THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED. WITH ALL THE PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY AND LIMITED POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH HALF. LOW CHANCE POP WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN STARTED TO DRY THE FORECAST OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. WITH THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
AND FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINING WEAK ANY
SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SCATTERED.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1022 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.UPDATE...
LINE OF STORMS SAGGING INTO NW CWA ATTIM. HAVE RAISED POPS
MAINLY N/NW SECTIONS REST OF TDY WHERE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT
PROGGED IN FORM OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ISOLD SEVERE STORM
WITH STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE
NOT OUT OF QUESTION IN MAINLY PULSE TYPE ENVIRONMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

UPDATE...
THE FCST WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

CONVECTION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND SHOULD END OR EXIT THE CWFA
AROUND MID MORNING. THE NEXT VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND HELP INITIATE NEW
CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.   08

AVIATION...
MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z/14. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/15. VCSH WILL SLOWLY END
PRIOR TO 18Z WITH NEW CONVECTION STARTING AROUND 18Z/14 AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. VCTS WAS ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DIURNAL CONVECTION. CIGS WITH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/15 LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP.        08

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL SUBTLE TROFS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BACK
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A COLLAPSING MESOHIGH NEAR KRST. DEW POINTS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS OVERALL
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION SINCE MIDNIGHT HAS EITHER ENDED OR DIMINISHED TO
SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHRA. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ELEVATED CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED OR DEVELOPED. RAP TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850MB IN RELATIVELY
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX THAT IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI. RAP
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE CWFA AROUND
MID MORNING.

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST OR POSSIBLY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE
TROF FROM NORTHERN IOWA.

FROM LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE CWFA.
BASED ON THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE VORT MAXES AND NEGATIVE THETA
E LAPSE RATES...AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION. THUS THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS.              ..08..

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HEAT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE EDGES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA TEMP
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MAINLY MID 90S FOR
MONDAY. HELD DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S BOTH DAYS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO AROUND 100 RANGE BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEVELOPING TROF OVER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT
WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE EARLY WEEK HEAT AND IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE FORECAST WAS SKEWED
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. ALSO MODELS
ARE SHOWING WARM MID LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SUGGESTING THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED. WITH ALL THE PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY AND LIMITED POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH HALF. LOW CHANCE POP WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN STARTED TO DRY THE FORECAST OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. WITH THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
AND FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINING WEAK ANY
SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SCATTERED.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 651 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.UPDATE...
THE FCST WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

CONVECTION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND SHOULD END OR EXIT THE CWFA
AROUND MID MORNING. THE NEXT VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND HELP INITIATE NEW
CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.   ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z/14. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/15. VCSH WILL SLOWLY END
PRIOR TO 18Z WITH NEW CONVECTION STARTING AROUND 18Z/14 AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. VCTS WAS ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DIURNAL CONVECTION. CIGS WITH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/15 LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP.        ..08..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL SUBTLE TROFS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BACK
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A COLLAPSING MESOHIGH NEAR KRST. DEW POINTS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS OVERALL
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION SINCE MIDNIGHT HAS EITHER ENDED OR DIMINISHED TO
SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHRA. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ELEVATED CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED OR DEVELOPED. RAP TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850MB IN RELATIVELY
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX THAT IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI. RAP
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE CWFA AROUND
MID MORNING.

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST OR POSSIBLY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE
TROF FROM NORTHERN IOWA.

FROM LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE CWFA.
BASED ON THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE VORT MAXES AND NEGATIVE THETA
E LAPSE RATES...AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION. THUS THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS.              ..08..

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HEAT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE EDGES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA TEMP
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MAINLY MID 90S FOR
MONDAY. HELD DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S BOTH DAYS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO AROUND 100 RANGE BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEVELOPING TROF OVER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT
WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE EARLY WEEK HEAT AND IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE FORECAST WAS SKEWED
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. ALSO MODELS
ARE SHOWING WARM MID LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SUGGESTING THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED. WITH ALL THE PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY AND LIMITED POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH HALF. LOW CHANCE POP WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN STARTED TO DRY THE FORECAST OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. WITH THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
AND FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINING WEAK ANY
SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SCATTERED.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL SUBTLE TROFS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BACK
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A COLLAPSING MESOHIGH NEAR KRST. DEW POINTS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS OVERALL
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION SINCE MIDNIGHT HAS EITHER ENDED OR DIMINISHED TO
SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHRA. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ELEVATED CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED OR DEVELOPED. RAP TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850MB IN RELATIVELY
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX THAT IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI. RAP
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE CWFA AROUND
MID MORNING.

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST OR POSSIBLY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE
TROF FROM NORTHERN IOWA.

FROM LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE CWFA.
BASED ON THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE VORT MAXES AND NEGATIVE THETA
E LAPSE RATES...AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION. THUS THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. 08

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HEAT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE EDGES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA TEMP
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MAINLY MID 90S FOR
MONDAY. HELD DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S BOTH DAYS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO AROUND 100 RANGE BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEVELOPING TROF OVER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT
WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE EARLY WEEK HEAT AND IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE FORECAST WAS SKEWED
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. ALSO MODELS
ARE SHOWING WARM MID LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SUGGESTING THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED. WITH ALL THE PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY AND LIMITED POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH HALF. LOW CHANCE POP WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN STARTED TO DRY THE FORECAST OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. WITH THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
AND FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINING WEAK ANY
SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SCATTERED.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DLF

&&

.AVIATION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED/DISSIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WHILE CONTINUING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFT 15Z/14 AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
18Z/14 TO 01Z/15. TSRA MAY OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE WITH KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL
HAVING A BETTER CHANCE THAN KCID. THUS VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
12Z TAFS. ONCE DIURNAL HEATING ELIMINATES THE SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/15. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA. 08

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 437 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 304 PM
CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO SUNDAY. A LEE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTY. A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100, THE CAP MAY WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO MEADE. WITH DEWPOINTS
ALSO MIXING OUT, IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM, THEY COULD PUT OUT SOME
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL
ALSO SUPPORTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. FOR SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THERE WERE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS NOTED FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A WEAKLY POSITIVE TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE RIDGE BECOMES SLOWLY FLATTENED WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WARM AIRMASS
WILL BE MARKED BY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES BY MID TO LATE WEEK. CAPPING IS
WEAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
UNDER 10 DEGREES C.  AN ISOLATED BRIEF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY DAY, BUT CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW GIVEN THE
LACK OF NOTED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE BEST CHANCES MIGHT BE FARTHER
WEST AND SOUTH ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PANHANDLES AND EASTERN
COLORADO. SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD REMAIN IN A WARM SECTOR THROUGH HE
ENTIRE PERIOD, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM IOWA THROUGH
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK, AND REMAIN FOCUSED
WELL AWAY FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER
WEST WILL HAVE POOR STEERING FLOW WITH SUCH LIGHT MEAN WINDS DUE TO
THE UPPER HIGH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROBABLY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAT BURSTS AND GUSTY WINDS THAN TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 TO THE COLORADO LINE.

TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES. SOME OF
THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF
WARMER HIGHS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY TO
AROUND 105 ARE INDICATED BY THIS GUIDANCE, AND SEEMS QUITE
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25 KTS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69 100  72  97 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  68 100  70  98 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  68  98  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  70 100  70  99 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  68 101  71  98 /  10  10   0  10
P28  72  99  72  96 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO SUNDAY. A LEE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTY. A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100, THE CAP MAY WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO MEADE. WITH DEWPOINTS
ALSO MIXING OUT, IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM, THEY COULD PUT OUT SOME
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL
ALSO SUPPORTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. FOR SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION. OPTED TO GO WITH THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY IN THIS DRY REGIME. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY, WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK DUE TO LIMITED SURFACE BASED CAPE, AND THE BEST
CHANCE (10-15%) WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. I OPTED TO GO
WITH THE ECMWF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY (UPPER
90S TO 100F) AS THIS MODEL HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS SUMMER.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE ECMWF INDICATES SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ON THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN HOT AND OPTED AGAIN TO USE THE ECMWF HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WHICH WERE GENERALLY 95 TO 100F. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE ECMWF BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE BACK OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. THUS, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 100F DURING THIS
PERIOD. AGAIN, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
KTS OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25 KTS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69 100  72  97 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  68 100  70  98 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  68  98  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  70 100  70  99 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  68 101  71  98 /  10  10   0  10
P28  72  99  72  96 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 111 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

A 500MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AT 00Z SATURDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
MONTANA. AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. BETWEEN THIS UPPER HIGH AND LOW TROPICAL
MOISTURE STRETCHED FROM OLD MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. EAST OF THE ROCKIES AT 00Z SATURDAY THE 700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 11C AT DODGE CITY AND NORTH PLATTE TO +17C AT DENVER.
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE GRADIENT AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALSO ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THE 850MB TEMPERATURES VARIED FROM THE MID 20S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DID
INDICATED SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AS THE NOSE OF A 50-60KT
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HRRR APPEARS TO BE
THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS. DO HOWEVER THINK COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE HRRR SUGGEST GIVEN THAT WESTERN
KANSAS IS CLOSER TO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF CUMULUS EXTENDING FROM
THE WAKEENEY/HAYS AREA DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. RADAR
WAS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES WEST. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE
HAYS/LARNED/STAFFORD VICINITIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ADD
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER JET WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN KANSAS WE SHOULD SEE ANY LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESS VALUES ARE NEARLY SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY UP
ALONG INTERSTATE 70.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY SHIFTING AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON`S WHERE
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD FORM. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THEY
WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO, MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH WILL ALSO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO GET EJECTED NORTHWARD AND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH REBUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S CELSIUS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IF STORMS MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGHS COULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER
TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING ANY MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE THE 9000 FT LEVEL. LATE DAY HEATING SHOULD GIVE
RISE TO INCREASE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  71 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  99  69  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  98  68  97  69 /   0  10   0  10
LBL 100  69  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
HYS 101  70  99  73 /  10  10   0  10
P28 100  72  97  73 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BURGERT
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 345 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGHOUT EAST
KENTUCKY WITH NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES TO KEY IN ON.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE...NO CAP...AND SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...NOT MUCH WAS NEEDED TO INITIATE THE STORMS LATE THIS
MORNING THAT CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. THE
CLOUDS FILLED IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND CONVECTION
FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A FEW OF THE CELLS HAVE GOTTEN STRONG
AND OTHERS HAVE MERGED/TRAINED OVER THE SAME SPOTS CREATING A CONCERN
FOR MINOR URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING. REGARDLESS...THE RAINS IN
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NOW PUTTING A SERIOUS DENT IN THEIR ANNUAL
RAINFALL DEFICIT THANKS TO THESE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND
BREAKS FOR SUNSHINE WITH READINGS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S
IN THE RAIN COOLED SOUTHERN I-75 CORRIDOR TO MID 80S JUST SOUTH OF
STORMS NEAR I-64 AND IN THE...THUS FAR RAIN FREE...FAR SOUTHEAST.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...REMAIN PEGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SUPPLYING
ALL THE JUICE THE CONVECTION COULD NEED.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE
FRINGE OF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A WEAK BERMUDA RIDGE AND AHEAD OF
TROUGHING COMING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY AND THIS WILL SERVE TO FURTHER LIMIT THE EFFECT OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE ON OUR WEATHER INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE MESOSCALE...OR SMALLER...WILL DOMINATE SO
HAVE LEANED MOST HEAVILY ON THE DETAILS OF THE NAM12 WITH A HEALTHY
DOSE OF THE HRRR EARLY ON TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING
DOWN...FOR THE MOST PART...AFTER SUNSET...BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING
BEHIND A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT A LULL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG A GOOD BET. THE
APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT GIVES SOME
CREDENCE TO THE NAM12/S IDEA OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FORMING OVER
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND DRIFTING INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY BY DAWN.
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS BOLSTERS THIS IDEA...AS WELL. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE DEVIATED FROM A STRICTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP AND WX PATTERN TO
ALLOW FOR THIS IDEA IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH NOT WHOLE HOG JUST YET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION
DRIVEN MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MINOR OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN
GENEROUS WITH THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HELD
OFF ON ANY DENSE UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHERE THE BEST
NOCTURNAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED GRIDS...
PERSISTENCE...AND SOME OF THE LATEST MET VALUES...AGAIN NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR LOWS GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS. AS FOR
POPS...HAVE ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV MOS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...HELPING TO TEMPORARILY BUCKLE
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN STRONGER ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SENDING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE COME ON
BOARD A BIT MORE...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR THESE
FEATURES. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SINKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...TO ONLY JUSTIFY A FEW POPS UP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
PERSISTENT HUMIDITY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ANOTHER TRICKY AVN FORECAST WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING AND THEN PERHAPS A RENEWAL TOWARDS DAWN AS A
SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH. THE DIURNAL EFFECT WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. HAVE
PLAYED THE NEAR TERM STORMS WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME FOG IN THE TAFS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 304 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS/SFC HIPRES REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. 18Z
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA AND SRN
MD. THIS BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED BY LGT E-NE WINDS/ TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S/ DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH...AND SLY
WINDS/ TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S/ DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S TO
THE SOUTH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ENHANCED THE TEMP GRADIENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST FEW HRS SINCE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE OCCURRED IN THE WARM SECTOR.

PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARW4N/NMM4N HAVE
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN IN THE WRN HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL/SRN VA AND SRN MD. WHILE
INITIATION HAS OCCURRED QUICKER THAN MODELS INDICATED...THE
LOCATION SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AND HI-PRECIP RATES...WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...SHENANDOAH VLY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THRU
MIDNIGHT...WHERE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STORM TRAINING SHOULD
BE GREATEST. DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND FF WATCH EWD INTO THE CITIES AS
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT
MORE LOCALIZED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD THRU THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS EVE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND NEWD INTO THE
CITIES DURING THE ERY EVE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK
OF ORGANIZED LIFT...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVE.
TRIED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY LATE TNGT/ERY SUN MRNG...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALLEGHENY FRONT.

ON SUN...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL YIELD A MODERATE AMT OF INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTN. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATION AND TIMING OF
INGREDIENTS FOR A SEVERE TSTM EPISODE IS IN QUESTION AS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND COME
AFTER THE PEAK DAYTIME HRS. WILL STILL MENTION OUTSIDE THREAT IN
HWO...AND FOCUS THREAT MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN NGT...CDFNT WILL CONT SLIDING ACRS CWA...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AND CVRG.  ULVL RIDGE TAKES HOLD
BY MON...TRIGGERING SVRL DAYS OF MUCH ABV NRML TEMPS. MAXIMA SHUD BE
IN 90S MON/TUE...WITH MINIMA MOSTLY IN 70S. DAILY RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPS MAY BE THREATENED AT THE CLIMATE SITES...AND HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE WARRANTED FOR SOME AREAS. CHC FOR CNVCTN IN
VICINITY OF AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS
FEATURE FURTHER S INTO SRN VA...SO FCST FOR CWA IS DRY MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY WED AS ULVL SHRTWV TROF DIGS THRU NEW
ENGLAND. A CDFNT WILL APPROACH WED AND MOVE THRU BY WED NGT. S OF
FRONT...MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND HOT TEMPS MAY AGAIN WARRANT HEAT
HEADLINES FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY E OF BLUE RIDGE. WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO 90S...SBCAPE VALUES SHUD REACH AOA 2000 J/KG WED
AFTN...AND SHEAR WILL INCR. TSTMS SHUD DVLP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AND
MOVE ACRS CWA...AND SOME MAY BE SVR. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DECENT
CAP...AND RATHER MODEST FORCING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS RMNG WELL N OF
MID-ATLC. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL
EXIT CWA...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PROPOSING FASTER SOLN/DRIER THU.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS THRU THU...BEFORE HIPRES BUILDS
IN.  AFTER FROPA...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABV NRML FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF WK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS. OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
5SM OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OVERNIGHT...RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AT CHO...IAD AND MRB. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE AREA.

VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST THRU SUN NGT WITH SCT/NUM
SHWRS/TSTMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING...BUT BOUNDARY LYR RMNG NEARLY
SATURATED.  HIGH PRESSURE SHUD CREATE VFR CONDS MON/TUE.  A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU TERMINALS WED...BRINGING WITH IT
ANOTHER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS AND PTNL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT THIS AFTN NEAR THE MID TIDAL POTOMAC RVR AND CENTRAL MD
PORTION OF THE CHSPK BAY. SLY FLOW HAS BACKED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SLY FLOW IN WARM
SECTOR. MAIN CONCERN THRU THE EVE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING
AND POOR VISIBILITIES IN TSTMS. SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS...WHICH WAS
ALREADY ISSUED FOR SRN ZONES...MAY BE NECESSARY FARTHER NWD LATER
TDA.

SLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CHANNEL UP THE BAY TNGT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS TO 15 KT.

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN AFTN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HVY
DOWNPOURS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

NO STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS FCST FOR NEXT WEEK...SO NO NON-CNVCTV
HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.  SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONT INTO SUN NGT AS CDFNT
CROSSES WATERS. DRIER CONDS MON/TUE...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTMS PSBL WED
WITH ANOTHER FROPA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ050-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/KONARIK
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KONARIK
LONG TERM...KONARIK
AVIATION...KLEIN/KONARIK/CJL
MARINE...KLEIN/KONARIK











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 234 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED ALONG WARM
FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.9 TO 2 INCHES. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITIY WILL CONTINUE OVERNINGHT AS WEAK PULSES
MOVE THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HRRR INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND A MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 03Z-07Z. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF
THE FRONT BUT MID 70S NORTH OF IT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ ...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ALONG A
MOISTURE CONFLUENCE REGION DEVELOPING WITH APROACHING SHORTWAVE.
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE... AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS WILL BE
VERY HI AROUND 2 INCHES. POTENTIAL FOR THE TRAINING WITH CELLS AS
THEY ORIENT THEMSELVES ALONG AN EAST WEST AXIS WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES ON SUNDAY. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA,
DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BETWEEN 5
AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL OH INTO SOUTHWEST PA SHOULD
PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE AGAIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING VFR WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 1202 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...
SHENANDOAH VLY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THRU MIDNIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARW4N/NMM4N CONTINUE TO DEPICT
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTN... WHERE BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO HIGHER INSTABILITY. STORMS LIKELY FOCUS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. SETUP SUPPORTS
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS AS STORM MOTION WILL BE ALMOST PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCH EWD INTO THE CITIES...
BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER
ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
14Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA AND
SRN MD. THIS BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY LGT NELY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO THE NORTH...WITH SLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THRUOUT THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.

H8 THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE AREA THIS MRNG.
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE THAT PRODUCED THE ERY
MRNG ROUND OF SHOWERS HAS ADVANCED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP DURING THE LATE
MRNG AND MIDDAY. POP GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

EARLIER THIS MRNG...AN ISO TSTM ACROSS THE NRN SUBURBS OF DC
PRODUCED AN IMPRESSIVE 1-2 INCHES OF PRECIP IN UNDER AN HR.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS/HI-
PRECIP RATES AS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING...WHICH
SHOWS SATURATION THRU MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE...PWATS OVER 2
INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTN...WHEN WE LIKELY SEE AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTION FOLLOWING A SEVERAL HRS OF DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC/MOISTURE PARAMETERS
CLEARLY SUPPORT ISSUANCE OF A FF WATCH...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTN AND EVE AS FORCING NEAR THE WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE.
ALSO...FFG GUIDANCE IS HIGH IN THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HVY RAIN FROM TSTMS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS /HI-RES MODEL
TRENDS...AND MAY ISSUE A FF WATCH ONCE LOCATION AND TSTM COVERAGE
IN THREAT AREA BECOMES CLEARER.

TRENDED COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS TDA FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MASON
DIXON LINE...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...AND
WARMER ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.

WMFNT WL MAKE ITS WAY N OF CWFA TNGT...SPCLY AFTER MIDNGT...LEAVING
BEHIND JUST A MUGGY AMS. WL ATTEMPT TO SNEAK IN A DRY PD OVNGT DUE
TO DIURNAL MIN AND H8-5 RDG PARKED JUST S OF CWFA...THO RECOGNIZE
THAT LINGERING BNDRYS AND ELEV INSTBY MAY BE ALL IT TAKES TO
TRIGGER A STRAY STORM. NRN/WRN CNTYS MOST LIABLE. STUCK WARM ON
MIN-T DUE TO CLDS/HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AFTER ABOUT A WEEK OF NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY THAN
WE`VE HAD IN RECENT MEMORY...THE HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS KEEP THE MAX TEMPS/MAX AFTN HUMIDITY LEVELS
JUST A TOUCH BELOW THE POST-DERECHO WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CAUTIONARY
NOTE IS THAT FORECAST TEMPS 4-5 DAYS OUT COULD EASILY RAISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BETWEEN NOW-THEN AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE
HAZARDOUS REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TEMP - SO THESE MID-WEEK DAYS
SHOULD BE TAKEN W/ JUST AS MUCH CAUTION AS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO.

THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS THIS UPCOMING WEEK /SUN-MON/ WILL BE MARKED
BY THE SLOW-STEADY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WE`VE HAD MORE THROUGH THE AREA. SUN WILL BE ESPECIALLY
ACTIVE AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS THE CWA FROM N-S. THE FRONT
WILL UTILIZE MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS IT
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SVR WX FROM THE MID MS VLY TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE. A 50-70KT UPPER JET WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE NY/PA BORDER SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AIDING CONVECTION DOWN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE SLIDING SWD BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR A LOW POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AFTN CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE METRO AREAS BUT A MUCH LOWER CHANCE THAN SUN. ANOTHER
COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MON-TUE. BY WED...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL
HELP PUSH THIS SYSTEM AND IT`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS THE MID
ATLC. THIS APPEARS TO BE A NEWER TREND IN MED RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT A
GOOD ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO A HIGHER
CHANCE RANGE. THE POTENTIAL BENEFIT AFTER SUCH AN OCCURRENCE ON WED
/THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR WX COULD OCCUR/ WOULD BE A SHARPER
DECREASE IN TEMPS TO CLOSE-OUT THE WEEK IF THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES
ENOUGH COOLER/DRIER NRN AIR TO STIFLE THE HIGHER TEMPS - AND GET US
CLOSER TO AVERAGE LEVELS. WILL MONITOR THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WMFNT NEAR CHO. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE IMPACTING IAD/MRB. BKN TO OVC CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT CIGS MAY SCT BY MIDDAY AT CHO AFTER THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE TERMINAL.

SHRA SHUD BECOME MORE NMRS AREAWIDE THIS AFTN AND CONT INTO ELY
EVNG...ANY OF WHICH WL PRODUCE LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICALLY WHEN/WHERE. IFR VSBY PSBL W/IN ANY
SHRA/TSRA AS THESE WILL PRODUCE VERY HVY DOWNPOURS. DIDNT WANT A
LONG PD OF RESTRICTIONS THAT LOW IN THE TAFS...SO COVERED BY VCTS
FOR NOW.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON SUN AFTN/EVE AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SWD ACROSS THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING
OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS MON-WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK...PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WED. GIVEN THIS SOLN...A QUIET END TO THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
EXPECTED W/ HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM...WARM FRONT NOW NEAR THE MID TIDAL POTOMAC RVR AND
SRN MD PORTION OF THE CHSPK BAY. SLY FLOW WL BACK OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SLY FLOW
ONCE IN WARM SECTOR.

MAY HV SLY CHANNELING TNGT...OTRW FLOW SHUD BE NO MORE THAN 10 KT.
SHRA WL BECOME MORE NRMS TDA...W/ TSRA ALSO PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVE.
OF COURSE WINDS/WAVES WL BE LOCALLY HIER IN/NEAR TSTMS...OTRW
LIGHTNING AND TEMPORARY LOW VSBYS IN HVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE BIGGEST
THREAT. HV KEPT WNDS BLO SCA CRIT...EVEN TNGT ON THE BAY.

A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING AND RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COMING WEEK. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUN EVE...THE OTHER TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. EACH PASSAGE WILL CARRY RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC WINDS BUT THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THAT WILL CARRY THEIR OWN CONCERNS
FOR HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...BEHIND THE MID WEEK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-
     503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...KLEIN








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 815 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVER THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AT THE
SURFACE, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARM DEW
POINT ADVECTION. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH A
LOBE OF VORT ENERGY ARE PROVIDING FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.9 TO 2 INCHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY AS VORT ENERGY FROM OHIO-WV MOVES INTO
WESTERN PA. THIS AFTERNOON, MORE HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN PLACE, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION TODAY,
ALTHOUGH HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN
THE HWO DUE TO 20-30KT STORM MOTION ANTICIPATED TODAY. GENERALLY A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH,
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR TEMPS TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL WV.

VORT ENERGY WITH RIPPLES IN 500MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE DESPITE
THE LOSS OF HEATING. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 60S,
LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE, NEAR 70
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE POSITIVELY MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL LOCALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINING IN PLACE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
ONCE AGAIN, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

NAM/ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
1000-800MB MOISTURE LINGERING. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON
MONDAY WIL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WHICH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, GFSE/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
DRIER, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS TO BE RATHER RAGGED AND
DISCONTINUOUS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THIS DECK
SHOULD AT LEAST PERSIST IF NOT BECOME A BIT MORE DENSE IN THE
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLEARING TRANSITING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA PER INFRARED IMAGERY. A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING ROUGHLY 08Z FIRST AROUND KMGW. ALL
SITES SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AT TIME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AREAS THAT SEE SOME BREAKS ARE QUITE LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING IS FAR TOO UNCERTAIN
TO PLACE INTO THE CODED TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN AGAIN BECOME COMMON
AFTER SHOWERS END SATURDAY EVENING. FRIES

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED SURFACE LAYER HUMIDITY CAN PROMOTE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND HAZE EACH MORNING, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 357 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AT THE
SURFACE, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARM DEW
POINT ADVECTION. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH A
LOBE OF VORT ENERGY ARE PROVIDING FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.9 TO 2 INCHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY AS VORT ENERGY FROM OHIO-WV MOVES INTO
WESTERN PA. THIS AFTERNOON, MORE HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN PLACE, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION TODAY,
ALTHOUGH HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN
THE HWO DUE TO 20-30KT STORM MOTION ANTICIPATED TODAY. GENERALLY A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH,
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR TEMPS TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL WV.

VORT ENERGY WITH RIPPLES IN 500MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE DESPITE
THE LOSS OF HEATING. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 60S,
LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE, NEAR 70
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE POSITIVELY MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL LOCALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINING IN PLACE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
ONCE AGAIN, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

NAM/ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
1000-800MB MOISTURE LINGERING. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON
MONDAY WIL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WHICH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, GFSE/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
DRIER, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS TO BE RATHER RAGGED AND
DISCONTINUOUS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THIS DECK
SHOULD AT LEAST PERSIST IF NOT BECOME A BIT MORE DENSE IN THE
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLEARING TRANSITING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA PER INFRARED IMAGERY. A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING ROUGHLY 08Z FIRST AROUND KMGW. ALL
SITES SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AT TIME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AREAS THAT SEE SOME BREAKS ARE QUITE LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING IS FAR TOO UNCERTAIN
TO PLACE INTO THE CODED TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN AGAIN BECOME COMMON
AFTER SHOWERS END SATURDAY EVENING. FRIES

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED SURFACE LAYER HUMIDITY CAN PROMOTE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND HAZE EACH MORNING, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 244 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
06Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR HIGHS TODAY.

THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AT THE
SURFACE, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARM DEW
POINT ADVECTION. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH A
LOBE OF VORT ENERGY ARE PROVIDING FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.9 TO 2 INCHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY AS VORT ENERGY FROM OHIO-WV MOVES INTO
WESTERN PA. THIS AFTERNOON, MORE HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION TODAY, ALTHOUGH HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO DUE TO 20-30KT
STORM MOTION ANTICIPATED TODAY. MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
COOLER FOR TEMPS TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

VORT ENERGY WITH RIPPLES IN 500MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH CHANCE POPS CONTINUING DESPITE
THE LOSS OF HEATING. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 60S,
LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE, NEAR 70 ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTH INTO
ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL TRACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY
SUNDAY. MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD DROP CONSIDERABLY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS IN THE
RIDGES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WHICH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FORECAST INCLUDES SCATTERED POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TAPERING TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS TO BE RATHER RAGGED AND
DISCONTINUOUS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THIS DECK
SHOULD AT LEAST PERSIST IF NOT BECOME A BIT MORE DENSE IN THE
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLEARING TRANSITING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA PER INFRARED IMAGERY. A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING ROUGHLY 08Z FIRST AROUND KMGW. ALL
SITES SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AT TIME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AREAS THAT SEE SOME BREAKS ARE QUITE LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING IS FAR TOO UNCERTAIN
TO PLACE INTO THE CODED TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN AGAIN BECOME COMMON
AFTER SHOWERS END SATURDAY EVENING. FRIES

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED SURFACE LAYER HUMIDITY CAN PROMOTE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND HAZE EACH MORNING, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1156 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
EVENING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI HAVE COOLED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...JUST MINOR
CHANGES TO OTHER FORECAST VARIABLES HAVE BEEN WARRANTED...AS THE
GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012
(TONIGHT)

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
AHEAD OF A PV ANOMALY THAT WAS LOCATED OVER IA PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP 1.5 PVU FIELDS. MAINLY PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR COMBINED WITH LITTLE CINH AND A FEW
THOUSAND J/KG OF CAPE. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS WHEN
THE CORES OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COLLAPSE HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
HOWEVER A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MIGHT CONTINUE TO
PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN MO.

KANOFSKY/CARNEY

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012
(TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF WILL PROVIDE BOTH A SOURCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND A LOW
LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCT TSRA/SHRA TOMORROW. GENERALLY
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. ISOLATED
DIURNAL PCPN MAY REDEVELOP AND LINGER ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA ON SUN AND MON AS THE TROF SETTLES SEWD AND THE ELONGATED
VORTICITY AXIS SHEARS OUT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20-24 DEG C WOULD
SUPPORT AFTN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK. THE CENTRAL REGION ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION REMAINS
CONTAMINATED BY INCORRECT GFS OUTPUT /NCEP STAFF CONTINUE TO
TROUBLESHOOT BUT HAVE NOT YET IDENTIFIED THE SOURCE OF THE
PROBLEM/ THEREFORE I DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE RECOMMENDED
INITIALIZATION TO REDUCE POPS AND RAISE TEMPS ON DAYS 4-7. A WEAK
SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA ON WED/THU AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD DRIVE HEAT INDEX READINGS OVER 105 DEG F
IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PD HOWEVER THERE ARE NO STRONG
SIGNALS TO SUPPORT HIGHER THAN SCHC POPS ACROSS MO/IL WHICH
REMAINS IN A MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH IOWA COULD SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE INTO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE PROB30 IN FORECAST FOR ST. LOUIS
METRO TERMINALS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
A RENEWED THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 854 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG BASED ON
RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/ HAS KEPT CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED OVER OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. COMPOUNDING THE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF FORCING AS
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY REMAINING WEST
AND NORTH OF SOUTHERN MT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST 500-HPA FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE AREA IN WYOMING
AND UTAH...AND THE 18 UTC GFS...00 UTC NAM...AND LAST SEVERAL HRRR
AND RAP SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW ONE OR MORE WEAK PERTURBATIONS ON A 1.5
PVU SURFACE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MT BEFORE 12 UTC. WE THUS WILL BE
KEEPING IN SOME POPS OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN EXPAND THEM A BIT TO THE
WEST AND NORTH INTO BILLINGS AND MILES CITY...MAINLY IN RESPECT TO
THE 23 AND 00 UTC HRRR SIMULATIONS. MINIMAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED AS
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...AND IN FACT IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A
LACK OF INSTABILITY COULD END UP NEGATING EVEN SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT
06 UTC. AGAIN THOUGH...WE DECIDED TO ADVERTISE SOME CHANCE IN MOST
AREAS IN THE 06 TO 12 UTC TIME FRAME GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE
MOST RECENT MODEL IDEAS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST
OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED WITH CURRENT FORECAST WELL TRENDED. THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR
NORTHWEST MT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR REGION GETS INTO A DRY
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM AS MONSOON MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
COMBINE FOR YET ANOTHER DRY AND VERY HOT PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO BE MORE 100S REACHED.
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A HINT OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD. AT BEST...STILL ONLY APPEARS
AS COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH ANY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
STILL ABLE TO MAX OUT WELL INTO THE 90S. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD ANTICIPATED. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/091 063/091 064/095 063/098 063/096 061/096 062/096
    23/T    54/T    41/B    11/U    11/B    11/B    11/U
LVM 053/089 053/089 053/093 052/096 054/093 052/094 052/095
    34/T    44/T    41/B    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 062/094 062/094 062/098 060/100 059/098 058/098 059/099
    23/T    44/T    41/B    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
MLS 069/095 069/095 068/098 067/101 066/101 063/098 065/098
    22/T    44/T    42/T    31/G    11/G    11/B    11/U
4BQ 065/094 064/093 064/097 063/099 064/100 060/098 062/098
    23/T    44/T    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 065/092 064/091 064/094 063/098 062/100 059/094 063/094
    13/T    44/T    43/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 060/089 058/090 058/095 055/097 056/098 054/096 055/096
    23/T    44/T    41/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GLASGOW MT

 743 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY SHOW THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES. BUT EVEN THEN...THEY
LOOK TO BE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. EXPECT PRECIP TO DRY UP QUITE
QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LINE BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAVE MONTANA IN AN OVER ALL SW FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FEEDING OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER MONTANA
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW.FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND TODAY.

SO LOOKING AT THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO JET STREAKS...ONE MOVING INTO SW
MONTANA AND ONE MOVING INTO SW WYOMING WHICH SHOULD HELP AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE
COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE LEFT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
STREAK ACROSS SW WYOMING ONCE IT GETS CLOSE TO CENTRAL MONTANA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. SO DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REDEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVE UP IN THE SW FLOW FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE SEEMS TO GET STUCK OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE GETTING PUSHED NE TUESDAY EVENING. SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECT DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CELL ARE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
RISK FOR MONDAY AND WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE SAME THING
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY BIG
FACTOR IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MORE ON TUESDAY RATHER THEN
MONDAY. RSMITH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
IS TO ADD SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST IN THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. A SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN MT AND ND
BORDER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH GENERALLY ALLOWS FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. NO BIG EVENT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME JUST
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IS THE EVENT OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREAS.  FRANSEN

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY AND NOW
ARE A DAY LATER WITH MOVING THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH INLAND
(FRIDAY NIGHT VERSUS THURSDAY NIGHT). WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS AND WARMS TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ALTHOUGH WEAK WAVES COULD
BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. THE WAVE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE SO THAT THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION THROUGH 06Z WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE WEST WIND LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD OCCUR.        PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 120 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ENTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE MID-SUMMER
HEAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. TODAY SHOULD START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ABOVE 850 MB...BUT IT IS ALSO QUITE DRY. WHILE THIS PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION...AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS STILL JUSTIFIES CHANCE POPS IN THE SAME REGIONS
PRONE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY...THOUGH CELLS MAY
DEVELOP IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. MEAN
QPF FORECASTS FROM THE SREF/NAM/RGEM/GFS ACTUALLY PAINT A PRETTY
GOOD GENERAL PICTURE OF THIS...AND RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO SPARK
CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

LAKE BREEZES WILL ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVERS...AND WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...SIMILAR TO PERHAPS A TAD COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKIER TONIGHT. MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
EVEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS (NAM/RGEM)
FAIRLY BULLISH ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WHILE OTHERS
(UKMET/EUROPEAN/GFS) TENDING TO SHOW LESS ACTIVITY OR KEEP IT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH NO WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND LIKELY TO COME WITH OR AFTER THE MOIST
AIRMASS BUILDS IN. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT SEE A CHANCE AT ANY
LOCATION LATE TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WARMER DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SWATH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALSO GETTING DRAGGED OFF INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK. "POSSIBLE" IS THE KEY WORD HERE WITH RESPECT TO THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...AS THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXTENT OF THE AVAILABLE LIFT/MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION.
IN ONE CAMP ARE THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND
SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH
NOTABLY WEAKER AND ACTUALLY GENERATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT AT LEAST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING
FOR DECENT HEATING OF A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...AND IN TURN
LEADING TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THIS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER A ROUND OF MORE
GENERAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO CUT BACK ON
SUNDAY`S POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...LOWERING THESE FROM LOW
LIKELY BACK TO THE CHANCE RANGE. MORE SPECIFICALLY...FOR SUNDAY
MORNING HAVE INDICATED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIAL DEPARTING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE PLACING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
FURTHER TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A
BROADBRUSH MID-CHANCE RANGE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD TEND
TO SLOWLY FADE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD/FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
INDICATED PRECIP CHANCES FALLING BACK THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE AND
EVENTUALLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH
OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT LIKELY TO BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD LARGELY
FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF UNCOMFORTABLY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS...AS OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD/FLAT UPPER RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA BOTH
DAYS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COULD REACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF
THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF TIMING OF THE FRONT DOES INDEED COME TO
FRUITION.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C MONDAY WILL
CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS +18C/+19C TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
MONDAY...AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THAT ON TUESDAY.
IN BETWEEN WILL BE ANOTHER SULTRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS
WILL AGAIN MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AT UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A RETURN
TO COOLER/DRIER WEATHER. GIVEN SOME CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...WILL CARRY BROADBRUSH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
THEN INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WILL HAVE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...WITH READINGS THEN SETTLING BACK TO AT LEAST MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO BOOT. IN FACT...IF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
DEPICTION OF 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...TEMPS THEN COULD EVEN BE A BIT COOLER THAN
PRESENTLY INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS AT ABOUT 3500FT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO PRODUCE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH VFR
PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. GIVEN VERY SPARSE COVERAGE AND
EXPECTATION THAT STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL PROTECT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTH...AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 08Z-15Z TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE FOUND FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER INTO
THE FINGER LAKES GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL
BATCH OF MORNING CONVECTION EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH. ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL STILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME ON SUNDAY
BETWEEN CONVECTIVE ROUNDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
WITH TROUGH...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.  WINDS AND
WAVES WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TODAY.  A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY BUT
WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1053 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH MAINLY DRY TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN
THE WORKWEEK...OUR NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH AN
EXPECTED COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SMALL WAVE THAT CAUSED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...IS NOW SHIFTING EAST AS
UPPER RIDGING OCCURS TODAY. A WEAK VESTIGE OF THAT WAVE
THOUGH...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY...BETWEEN CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WYOMING VALLEY...AND
SUNSHINE TO THE NORTH...MAY LEAD TO ATTEMPTED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STRUGGLE TODAY
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS...IS THAT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALOFT WILL CAUSE MORE INHIBITION. USING THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
WRFARW...I PLACED A WNW-ESE AXIS OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INITIALLY ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AND THEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD
NORTH-TO-SOUTH GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...FROM LOWER
90S IN LAKE PLAIN WITH MORE SUNSHINE...TO ONLY LOWER 80S IN MUCH
OF NORTHEAST PA WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE /EVEN UPPER 70S
HIGHER ELEVS/.

SO MAINLY DRY TODAY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER AT BEST. MAIN
RAIN CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BECAUSE
OF THE WARMING ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE ADVECTING IN THE SOUPY AIR
MASS OF 1.75-2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...FOR
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO OVERCOME INHIBITION. SOUNDINGS BECOME NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAINERS...YET SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALSO INCREASES WHICH WILL ALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
ACTUALLY PROGRESS RATHER THAN DRIFTING SLOWLY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION...BUT ALOFT THIS WILL VERY
MUCH RESEMBLE A WARM FRONT-TO-COLD FRONT SITUATION. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WAVE /PSEUDO-WARM FRONT/ IS SET TO PASS 06Z-12Z SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
WAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST /PSEUDO-COLD FRONT/ LATE IN
THE DAY TO EARLY EVENING...AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF
IT...WHILE ACTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION OF COLD FRONT MAY LINGER TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND NOT EVEN GET INTO OUR AREA. POPS UPDATED TO HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TIMING
OF INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER BEST. LOOKING AT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF TOTAL RANGING FROM ROUGHLY A QUARTER- TO-THIRD OF AN INCH
NORTHWEST...TO MORE LIKE TWO-THIRDS TO THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH
SOUTHEAST. GIVEN VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS THOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY
LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT...AND WILL EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
RAINFALL. WILL INSTEAD HAVE TO MONITOR FOR URBAN AREAS FOR
RUNOFF/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS OR OTHER VERY LOCALIZED MINOR
WATER ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES...WITH FLOW AROUND IT USHERING OUR MOISTURE OFF TO
THE EAST FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A ANOTHER QUIETER WEATHER
DAY FOR MONDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE STARTED WITH HPC GUIDANCE BUT DID MAKE SOME TWEEKS AT THE START
OF THE MEDIUM RNG PD DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z EURO...SUGGESTING A FASTER FROPA THAT CRNTLY INDICATED BY
HPC. MDLS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN BGM CWA LATE ON
TUE NGT...AND MOV INTO NE PA ON WED AFTN...WITH A CHC FOR
SHRA/TSRA. AFTER FROPA...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES IS FCST TO WORK
EWD INTO THE RGN FROM THE UPPER GT LAKES...SO WE ELIMINATED LOW
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (ALTHO AN ISOLD
-SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT). MAIN THEME IS A RETURN TO VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDWEEK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR WV SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA THIS MRNG. SCT CONV WEAKENING AS
DRIER AIR MVES IN SO NO NEED OF TRW IN THE TAFS. LL MOISTURE HAS
BROUGHT MVFR FOG TO ELM...THIS SHD RAPIDLY MIX OUT LTR THIS MRNG.
ISLTD WEAK CONV WILL NOT BRING ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN TAFS THIS
AFTN. NEXT WV APRCHS LATE IN THE TAF PD TO INCRS THE MOISTURE IN
THE AREA THIS WILL BRING BACK THE PSBLTY OF MVFR FOG IN ELM...BUT
OVRNGT STABILITY SHD LIMIT CONV. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING LGT WINDS
THRU THE PD.


OUTLOOK...


SUN...SCT MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS.

SUN NGT/MON...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA PSBL.

TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT/WED...SCT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP/SLI
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DGM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 1016 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ENTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE MID-SUMMER
HEAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. TODAY SHOULD START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ABOVE 850 MB...BUT IT IS ALSO QUITE DRY. WHILE THIS PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION...AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS STILL JUSTIFIES CHANCE POPS IN THE SAME REGIONS
PRONE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY...THOUGH CELLS MAY
DEVELOP IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. MEAN
QPF FORECASTS FROM THE SREF/NAM/RGEM/GFS ACTUALLY PAINT A PRETTY
GOOD GENERAL PICTURE OF THIS...AND RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO SPARK
CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

LAKE BREEZES WILL ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVERS...AND WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...SIMILAR TO PERHAPS A TAD COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKIER TONIGHT. MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
EVEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS (NAM/RGEM)
FAIRLY BULLISH ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WHILE OTHERS
(UKMET/EUROPEAN/GFS) TENDING TO SHOW LESS ACTIVITY OR KEEP IT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH NO WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND LIKELY TO COME WITH OR AFTER THE MOIST
AIRMASS BUILDS IN. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT SEE A CHANCE AT ANY
LOCATION LATE TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WARMER DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SWATH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALSO GETTING DRAGGED OFF INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK. "POSSIBLE" IS THE KEY WORD HERE WITH RESPECT TO THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...AS THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXTENT OF THE AVAILABLE LIFT/MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION.
IN ONE CAMP ARE THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND
SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH
NOTABLY WEAKER AND ACTUALLY GENERATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT AT LEAST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING
FOR DECENT HEATING OF A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...AND IN TURN
LEADING TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THIS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER A ROUND OF MORE
GENERAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO CUT BACK ON
SUNDAY`S POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...LOWERING THESE FROM LOW
LIKELY BACK TO THE CHANCE RANGE. MORE SPECIFICALLY...FOR SUNDAY
MORNING HAVE INDICATED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIAL DEPARTING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE PLACING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
FURTHER TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A
BROADBRUSH MID-CHANCE RANGE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD TEND
TO SLOWLY FADE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD/FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
INDICATED PRECIP CHANCES FALLING BACK THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE AND
EVENTUALLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH
OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT LIKELY TO BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD LARGELY
FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF UNCOMFORTABLY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS...AS OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD/FLAT UPPER RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA BOTH
DAYS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COULD REACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF
THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF TIMING OF THE FRONT DOES INDEED COME TO
FRUITION.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C MONDAY WILL
CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS +18C/+19C TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
MONDAY...AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THAT ON TUESDAY.
IN BETWEEN WILL BE ANOTHER SULTRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS
WILL AGAIN MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AT UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A RETURN
TO COOLER/DRIER WEATHER. GIVEN SOME CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...WILL CARRY BROADBRUSH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
THEN INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WILL HAVE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...WITH READINGS THEN SETTLING BACK TO AT LEAST MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO BOOT. IN FACT...IF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
DEPICTION OF 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...TEMPS THEN COULD EVEN BE A BIT COOLER THAN
PRESENTLY INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AFTER THIS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...TENDING TO FORM ALONG OR INLAND OF LAKE-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. WHILE ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT BUF/IAG/ART...FEEL CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW...WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT ROC. THE BEST CHANCE IS AT JHW...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...THOUGH IT WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND IF SKIES CLEAR FOLLOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
WITH TROUGH...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.  WINDS AND
WAVES WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TODAY.  A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY BUT
WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 745 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ENTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE MID-SUMMER
HEAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. TODAY SHOULD START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ABOVE 850 MB...BUT IT IS ALSO QUITE DRY. WHILE THIS PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION...AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS STILL JUSTIFIES CHANCE POPS IN THE SAME REGIONS
PRONE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY...THOUGH CELLS MAY
DEVELOP IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. MEAN QPF FORECASTS FROM
THE SREF/NAM/RGEM/GFS ACTUALLY PAINT A PRETTY GOOD GENERAL PICTURE
OF THIS...AND RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO SPARK CONVECTION SHORTLY
AFTER NOON.

LAKE BREEZES WILL ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVERS...AND WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...SIMILAR TO PERHAPS A TAD COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKIER TONIGHT. MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
EVEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS (NAM/RGEM)
FAIRLY BULLISH ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WHILE OTHERS
(UKMET/EUROPEAN/GFS) TENDING TO SHOW LESS ACTIVITY OR KEEP IT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH NO WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND LIKELY TO COME WITH OR AFTER THE MOIST
AIRMASS BUILDS IN. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT SEE A CHANCE AT ANY
LOCATION LATE TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WARMER DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SWATH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALSO GETTING DRAGGED OFF INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK. "POSSIBLE" IS THE KEY WORD HERE WITH RESPECT TO THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...AS THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXTENT OF THE AVAILABLE LIFT/MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION.
IN ONE CAMP ARE THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND
SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH
NOTABLY WEAKER AND ACTUALLY GENERATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT AT LEAST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING
FOR DECENT HEATING OF A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...AND IN TURN
LEADING TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THIS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER A ROUND OF MORE
GENERAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO CUT BACK ON
SUNDAY`S POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...LOWERING THESE FROM LOW
LIKELY BACK TO THE CHANCE RANGE. MORE SPECIFICALLY...FOR SUNDAY
MORNING HAVE INDICATED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIAL DEPARTING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE PLACING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
FURTHER TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A
BROADBRUSH MID-CHANCE RANGE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD TEND
TO SLOWLY FADE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD/FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
INDICATED PRECIP CHANCES FALLING BACK THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE AND
EVENTUALLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH
OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT LIKELY TO BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD LARGELY
FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF UNCOMFORTABLY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS...AS OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD/FLAT UPPER RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA BOTH
DAYS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COULD REACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF
THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF TIMING OF THE FRONT DOES INDEED COME TO
FRUITION.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C MONDAY WILL
CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS +18C/+19C TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
MONDAY...AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THAT ON TUESDAY.
IN BETWEEN WILL BE ANOTHER SULTRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS
WILL AGAIN MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AT UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A RETURN
TO COOLER/DRIER WEATHER. GIVEN SOME CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...WILL CARRY BROADBRUSH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
THEN INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WILL HAVE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...WITH READINGS THEN SETTLING BACK TO AT LEAST MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO BOOT. IN FACT...IF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
DEPICTION OF 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...TEMPS THEN COULD EVEN BE A BIT COOLER THAN
PRESENTLY INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AFTER THIS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...TENDING TO FORM ALONG OR INLAND OF LAKE-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. WHILE ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT BUF/IAG/ART...FEEL CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW...WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT ROC. THE BEST CHANCE IS AT JHW...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...THOUGH IT WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND IF SKIES CLEAR FOLLOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
WITH TROUGH...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.  WINDS AND
WAVES WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TODAY.  A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY BUT
WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 348 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ENTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE MID-SUMMER
HEAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TODAY
SHOULD START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...THIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE QUITE
LIMITED...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS STILL
JUSTIFIES CHANCE POPS IN THE SAME REGIONS PRONE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY...THOUGH CELLS MAY DEVELOP IN SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. MEAN QPF FORECASTS FROM THE SREF/NAM/RGEM/GFS
ACTUALLY PAINT A PRETTY GOOD GENERAL PICTURE OF THIS...AND RUNS OF
THE HRRR APPEAR TO SPARK CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

LAKE BREEZES WILL ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVERS...AND WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO A ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...SIMILAR TO PERHAPS A TAD COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKIER TONIGHT. MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
EVEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS (NAM/RGEM)
FAIRLY BULLISH ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WHILE OTHERS
(UKMET/EUROPEAN/GFS) TENDING TO SHOW LESS ACTIVITY OR KEEP IT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH NO WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND LIKELY TO COME WITH OR AFTER THE MOIST
AIRMASS BUILDS IN. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT SEE A CHANCE AT ANY
LOCATION LATE TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WARMER DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SWATH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALSO GETTING DRAGGED OFF INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK. "POSSIBLE" IS THE KEY WORD HERE WITH RESPECT TO THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...AS THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXTENT OF THE AVAILABLE LIFT/MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION.
IN ONE CAMP ARE THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND
SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH
NOTABLY WEAKER AND ACTUALLY GENERATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY THIN OUT AT LEAST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING
FOR DECENT HEATING OF A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...AND IN TURN
LEADING TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THIS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER A ROUND OF MORE
GENERAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO CUT BACK ON
SUNDAY`S POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...LOWERING THESE FROM LOW
LIKELY BACK TO THE CHANCE RANGE. MORE SPECIFICALLY...FOR SUNDAY
MORNING HAVE INDICATED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIAL DEPARTING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE PLACING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
FURTHER TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A
BROADBRUSH MID-CHANCE RANGE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD TEND
TO SLOWLY FADE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD/FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
INDICATED PRECIP CHANCES FALLING BACK THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE AND
EVENTUALLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH
OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT LIKELY TO BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD LARGELY
FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF UNCOMFORTABLY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS...AS OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD/FLAT UPPER RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA BOTH
DAYS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COULD REACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF
THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF TIMING OF THE FRONT DOES INDEED COME TO
FRUITION.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C MONDAY WILL
CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS +18C/+19C TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
MONDAY...AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THAT ON TUESDAY.
IN BETWEEN WILL BE ANOTHER SULTRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS
WILL AGAIN MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AT UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A RETURN
TO COOLER/DRIER WEATHER. GIVEN SOME CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...WILL CARRY BROADBRUSH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
THEN INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WILL HAVE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...WITH READINGS THEN SETTLING BACK TO AT LEAST MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO BOOT. IN FACT...IF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
DEPICTION OF 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...TEMPS THEN COULD EVEN BE A BIT COOLER THAN
PRESENTLY INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS STILL RUNNING QUITE WIDE...WITH ALL
SITES LIKELY TO REMAIN FOG-FREE.

AFTER THIS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP. LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...TENDING TO FORM ALONG OR INLAND OF LAKE-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. WHILE ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT BUF/IAG/ART...FEEL CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW...WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT ROC. THE BEST CHANCE IS AT JHW...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...THOUGH IT WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND IF SKIES CLEAR FOLLOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
WITH TROUGH...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.  WINDS AND
WAVES WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TODAY.  A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY BUT
WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 926 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE THIS EVENING.
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS HAS THE CAP CONTINUING TO HOLD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND JUST TO THE WEST...DESPITE OVER 2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE. A FEW STORMS TRIED TO FIRE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND
EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT DIED RAPIDLY AS THEY MOVED TOWARDS OUR
CWA. ONLY GAME IN TOWN HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN RENVILLE COUNTY...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE ONLY SEEING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A BIT OF
THUNDER...SO ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE WARM FRONT
STILL JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH
THE NAM CONTINUES ITS TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF IT NORTH OF THE
BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS AND LOWERED THEM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...BUT KEPT SCATTERED MENTION IN THE NORTHERN
TIER AND A BIT HIGHER AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT KEPT LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THERE MAY BE SOME VCTS AROUND KDVL AROUND 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND WILL MAINLY HAVE
TO WATCH ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AS IT APPROACHES
THE TAF SITES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH DURING TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW. INCLUDED MVFR AT KDVL AS THAT SEEMS THE
MOST LIKELY VIA SREF PROBABILITIES...BUT KEPT CEILINGS VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012/

SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN REGARDS
TO WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND CONVECTION...WITH THE GFS STILL TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE NAM PERHAPS TOO FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF REMAINS A
DECENT COMPROMISE ALTHOUGH IT IS MORE IN THE NORTHERLY NAM CAMP.
THE LATEST NEAR TERM HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CAP HOLDING INTO THIS EVENT WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY MCS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL BASE POPS ON THIS SCENARIO.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN NC ND TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z. STORM
MOTION VECTORS AND INCREASE LLJ WILL LIKELY CAUSE THESE STORMS TO
TRACK NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THEN TURN INTO NE ND/NW MN
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...AND GIVEN A VERY PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT AND HIGH
SHEAR...CAN/T RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER IF DEWPOINTS CAN POOL
ENOUGH LOCALLY. IT STILL IS UNCERTAIN HOW CURRENT CAP WILL AFFECT
CONVECTION THOUGH...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS SO WILL
MENTION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
SOUTH REMAINING IN THE 70S.

FOR MON...THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VERY WARM HERE. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100...AND WE MAY
NEED SOME HEAT HEADLINES HERE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON HEADLINES WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER/DEWPOINTS BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER SHIFTS. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ON TUE/WED...EXPECTING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR
SOME CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT FEEL ITS NOT WORTH A
MENTION BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

GFS/ECMWF IN POOR AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
BECOMING 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
00 UTC SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. DESPITE
ALLBLEND POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...WILL FOLLOW
PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. GIVEN RECENT
SYNOPTIC REGIME...PREFER THE HOTTER AND DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. BEST
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH RIDGE ALOFT.
ALSO INCLUDED LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ON THE OFF-CHANCE
THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE GFS VERIFIES WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS BACK IN THE 90S BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ALSO BE VERY WARM BY WEEK/S END...AT OR ABOVE 70
DEGREES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
JR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1012 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. DID NOT CHANGE HIGHS
MUCH AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE INCREASED
CLOUDS COULD IMPACT HIGHS TO SOME DEGREE. WILL WATCH TRENDS AND
ADJUST IF IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES.
HELD ONTO THE SMALL POPS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING SINCE KBIS SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION...AND THE LATEST RAP STILL BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF TO THAT
AREA AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE WILL AT TIMES BRING MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
AT KMOT/KISN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
KBIS SHOWS A FEW LIGHT ECHOES THIS MORNING IN PARTS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT
AT EITHER KISN OR KMOT THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR SLIM
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT KISN/KDIK
AFTER 04Z...THEN IMPACT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT MORE THAN INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHWEST...THINK THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

CK





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 806 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR FILTERING BACK
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE
INTO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR AGAIN BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE NOW IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS. THE BOW OVER THE MID-SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLIER
PRODUCED MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN REPORTS. BUT WINDS APPEAR
WEAKER WITH THIS. KEPT POPS HIGH NEXT 3 HOURS...90 PERCENT IN
SOUTHEAST. LOWER TO WEST WHERE POST FRONTAL.

ONCE THE LINE CLEARS IN A FEW HOURS ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS. STILL
SHOWERS WELL WEST MOST SHOULD DIE AFTER SUNSET BUT NEED TO WATCH
STUFF CROSSING LAKE ERIE. MOST GUIDANCE DIMINISHES IT. HRRR AT 20Z
IMPLIES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NW STILL POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. A
FEW URBAN AREAS IN SE AROUND 70. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE THERE
WAS A BIT MORE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LOWERED POPS A BIT KEPT FORECAST MOSTLY INTACT.

PREVIOUS: THE BROAD TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE NE U.S.
COAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
AND NW FLOW ALOFT.

VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WORK HARD TO PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
MONDAY. SREF POPS SEEM TOO HIGH AND MOS POPS SEEM TOO LOW. WILL
KEEP THE VERY LOW CHANCES WE HAVE IN THE FCST NOW...BUT LEAN TWD A
DRIER AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

OVERALL SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY.

MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE LOWER 90S THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BEGIN LIFTING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS TROF WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE A COLD
FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THIS PD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PROGGED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT YET MORE HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
INSTORE FOR CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z TAFS UPDATED FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF
CENTRAL PA WILL SEE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STORMS.

EXPECT THINGS TO SLOWLY DIE DOWN AS BEST HEATING IS OVER
WITH...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATER TONIGHT.

REDUCED VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS /JST AND BFD/ AS
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY AND UPSLOPE.

MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AFTER ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BURN OFF. AN ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WX WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY...AS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERS SCT SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR.
WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
THU-FRI...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 734 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR FILTERING BACK
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE
INTO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR AGAIN BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE NOW IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS. THE BOW OVER THE MID-SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLIER
PRODUCED MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN REPORTS. BUT WINDS APPEAR
WEAKER WITH THIS. KEPT POPS HIGH NEXT 3 HOURS...90 PERCENT IN
SOUTHEAST. LOWER TO WEST WHERE POST FRONTAL.

ONCE THE LINE CLEARS IN A FEW HOURS ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS. STILL
SHOWERS WELL WEST MOST SHOULD DIE AFTER SUNSET BUT NEED TO WATCH
STUFF CROSSING LAKE ERIE. MOST GUIDANCE DIMINISHES IT. HRRR AT 20Z
IMPLIES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NW STILL POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. A
FEW URBAN AREAS IN SE AROUND 70. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE THERE
WAS A BIT MORE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

LOWERED POPS A BIT KEPT FORECAST MOSTLY INTACT.

PREVIOUS: THE BROAD TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE NE U.S.
COAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
AND NW FLOW ALOFT.

VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WORK HARD TO PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
MONDAY. SREF POPS SEEM TOO HIGH AND MOS POPS SEEM TOO LOW. WILL
KEEP THE VERY LOW CHANCES WE HAVE IN THE FCST NOW...BUT LEAN TWD A
DRIER AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

OVERALL SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY.

MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE LOWER 90S THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BEGIN LIFTING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS TROF WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE A COLD
FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THIS PD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PROGGED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT YET MORE HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
INSTORE FOR CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAFS UPDATED SEVERAL TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THINGS TO SLOWLY DIE DOWN AS BEST HEATING IS
OVER WITH...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATER TONIGHT.

APPROACHING TROUGH TRIGGERING SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN
INTO THIS EVE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...WITH REDUCED VSBYS
DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS IN SOME STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

REDUCED VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS /JST AND BFD/ AS
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY AND UPSLOPE.

MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AFTER ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BURN OFF. AN ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WX WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY...AS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERS SCT SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...

MON...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA PSBL.
TUE...VFR.
WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
THU-FRI...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 603 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING A BIT OVER THE REGION...BUT THERE
IS A GOOD MIX OF LOW...MID...AND HIGH CLOUDS SO CENTRAL AREAS WILL
JUST SEE PEEKS OF SUN. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS AND
A BIT OF A CLEAR SLOT MOVING INTO THE WEST.

RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE WANE. ONLY TWO SHOWERS OF NOTE
WELL TO OUR WEST. SO...LOWERED THE POPS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM SHOW SOME MAINLY RANDOM
SHOWERS. THE 15Z SREF POPS ARE LOWER THAN THE 0900 UTC RUN.

LOWERED THE POPS...BEST CHANCE IN WEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON SREF
POPS AND ALL THE LIGHTNING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
KY AND SOUTHERN OH. SOME OF THAT COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN
TO SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
EASILY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF QPF. SREF SHOWS AREAS OF 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 OR MORE INCHES. PW IS 45 T0 50 MM SO 1-2 INCHES SEEMS
REASONABLE. HIGHEST PROBABILITY WOULD BE IN WESTERN THIRD OF PA
OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT KNOW IS WHERE UNTIL THE STORM/SHOWERS
APPEARED ON RADAR.

A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE 15Z SREF WAS CAUSE TO LOWER POPS A BIT ON SUNDAY BUT STILL ALL
SIGNALS POINT TO BEST CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SUNDAY. THE HIGHER PW AIR IS PUSHING EAST SUNDAY SO THE WETTER
SUSPECTS WOULD BE IN THE EAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS MOST AREAS ARE IN
THE 50 TO 70 POPS RANGE IN MOST GUIDANCE AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN. THE WEATHER IN THE WEST COULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. DRY AIR IS GOING TO END OUR (BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON) 3 DAY MOSTLY CLOUDY HUMID PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HITS MOST OF THE POINTS :
BASICALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF SEEING
MEASURABLE RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO BASIN AVERAGE
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS EXISTS IN AREAS IMPACTED
BY REPEAT SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION WE CAN GET THROUGH THE RATHER EXPANSIVE LAYERED MID
CLOUD DECK. FCST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO A STEAMY 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF IN THE GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A RISE IN HEIGHTS BEHIND THE TROF
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF/LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO COME TO A HALT OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES....AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ANOTHER HOT SPELL LOOKS IN THE OFFING
WITH A DISTINCT COOLING OFF/DRYING OUT PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

MINS AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

FOR MONDAY...A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...AND FLAT RIDGING SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALOFT WILL SUPPLY
US WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID MONDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES CLIMBING
TO AROUND 100-102 IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD TEMPS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS TURN OUT TO BE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES HIGHER. CURRENTLY...
HEAT INDICES IN THAT AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S.

ISOLATED TO SCTD AFTERNOON AN EVENING TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH THAT SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS OUR FAR SERN ZONES MONDAY.

MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...AS A MID LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE CRESTING THE AREA HELPS TO CAP OFF THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION.

THE PEAK IN THE UPCOMING...SHORT-LIVED HEAT WAVE WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN 850 TEMPS VIA THE 00Z GEFS CLIMB TO AROUND PLUS 2 ST DEVIATIONS
OR 20-22C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND LOWER TO MID 90S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

DEEP LAYER...WEST TO NWRLY SHEAR INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION.
A ROUND OR TWO OF GUSTY TSRA IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A REFRESHINGLY DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WITH STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NERN U.S.. DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO 50S WILL SUPPORT COOL
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW OF SOMERSET...SW OF
JST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH AOO AND PERHAPS JST.
DEWPOINTS NOT REAL HIGH...SO VISIBILITIES VFR...BUT CIGS
IN SOME SPOTS ARE MVFR. 21Z TAFS ADJUSTED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TERMINALS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1000-3000 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE
ELEVATED JST COMING IN EVEN LOWER...JUST BELOW 1000`. VISIBILITIES
ARE GENERALLY NOT A PROBLEM OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY THIN HAZE AND
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...EXPECT CEILINGS
TO HANG IN THE 2500-5000` RANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHEN CEILINGS COULD EVEN
DETERIORATE DOWN CLOSER TO IFR LEVELS.

SUNDAY WILL START OFF WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR BY LATE
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HAZE AND SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
COULD LIMIT VIZ TO THE 3-6 MILE RANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PSBL.

TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL.

THU...ISOLATED SHWR PSBL ACROSS S PA EARLY...
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 429 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING A BIT OVER THE REGION...BUT THERE
IS A GOOD MIX OF LOW...MID...AND HIGH CLOUDS SO CENTRAL AREAS WILL
JUST SEE PEEKS OF SUN. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS AND
A BIT OF A CLEAR SLOT MOVING INTO THE WEST.

RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE WANE. ONLY TWO SHOWERS OF NOTE
WELL TO OUR WEST. SO...LOWERED THE POPS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM SHOW SOME MAINLY RANDOM
SHOWERS. THE 15Z SREF POPS ARE LOWER THAN THE 0900 UTC RUN.

LOWERED THE POPS...BEST CHANCE IN WEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON SREF
POPS AND ALL THE LIGHTNING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
KY AND SOUTHERN OH. SOME OF THAT COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN
TO SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
EASILY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF QPF. SREF SHOWS AREAS OF 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 OR MORE INCHES. PW IS 45 T0 50 MM SO 1-2 INCHES SEEMS
REASONABLE. HIGHEST PROBABILITY WOULD BE IN WESTERN THIRD OF PA
OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT KNOW IS WHERE UNTIL THE STORM/SHOWERS
APPEARED ON RADAR.

A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE 15Z SREF WAS CAUSE TO LOWER POPS A BIT ON SUNDAY BUT STILL ALL
SIGNALS POINT TO BEST CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SUNDAY. THE HIGHER PW AIR IS PUSHING EAST SUNDAY SO THE WETTER
SUSPECTS WOULD BE IN THE EAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS MOST AREAS ARE IN
THE 50 TO 70 POPS RANGE IN MOST GUIDANCE AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN. THE WEATHER IN THE WEST COULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. DRY AIR IS GOING TO END OUR (BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON) 3 DAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY HUMID PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HITS MOST OF THE POINTS :
BASICALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF SEEING
MEASURABLE RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO BASIN AVERAGE
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS EXISTS IN AREAS IMPACTED
BY REPEAT SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION WE CAN GET THROUGH THE RATHER EXPANSIVE LAYERED MID CLOUD
DECK. FCST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO A STEAMY 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF IN THE GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A RISE IN HEIGHTS BEHIND THE TROF
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF/LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO COME TO A HALT OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES....AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ANOTHER HOT SPELL LOOKS IN THE OFFING
WITH A DISTINCT COOLING OFF/DRYING OUT PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

MINS AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

FOR MONDAY...A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...AND FLAT RIDGING SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALOFT WILL SUPPLY
US WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID MONDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES CLIMBING
TO AROUND 100-102 IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD TEMPS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS TURN OUT TO BE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES HIGHER. CURRENTLY...
HEAT INDICES IN THAT AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S.

ISOLATED TO SCTD AFTERNOON AN EVENING TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH THAT SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS OUR FAR SERN ZONES MONDAY.

MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...AS A MID LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE CRESTING THE AREA HELPS TO CAP OFF THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION.

THE PEAK IN THE UPCOMING...SHORT-LIVED HEAT WAVE WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN 850 TEMPS VIA THE 00Z GEFS CLIMB TO AROUND PLUS 2 ST DEVIATIONS
OR 20-22C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND LOWER TO MID 90S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

DEEP LAYER...WEST TO NWRLY SHEAR INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION. A
ROUND OR TWO OF GUSTY TSRA IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A REFRESHINGLY DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WITH STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NERN U.S.. DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO 50S WILL SUPPORT COOL
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TERMINALS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1000-3000 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE ELEVATED JST
COMING IN EVEN LOWER...JUST BELOW 1000`. VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY NOT A PROBLEM OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY THIN HAZE AND
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...EXPECT CEILINGS
TO HANG IN THE 2500-5000` RANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHEN CEILINGS COULD EVEN
DETERIORATE DOWN CLOSER TO IFR LEVELS.

SUNDAY WILL START OFF WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR BY LATE
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HAZE AND SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
COULD LIMIT VIZ TO THE 3-6 MILE RANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PSBL.

TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 1102 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SAT...UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED AS
925 MB TO 850 MB FLOW HAS VEERED SLIGHTLY SRLY AND DIMINISHED ON
KGSP VAD WINDS AND RUC PROFILES. THE REGION IS OFF TO A WARMER START
WITH EARLIER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...AND CLOUD STREETS ON DEVELOPING WEAK CONVECTIVE ROLLS
ARE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE MECHANISM FOR MORE ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AT PRESENT.
THERE ARE ALREADY SOME POCKETS OF 2000+ J/KG SFC BASED CAPE...AND
VALUES WELL OVER 3000 ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MOIST
DEWPOINTS AND LIMITED MIX OUT. WILL THUS FEATURE SHOTGUN SOLID CHC
POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC IN THE WRN
MTNS NEAR BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. LAPSE RATES
ARE ONCE AGAIN QUITE LOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
IN THIS MOIST AIRMASS. ISOLD LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TRAINING OF CELLS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMED A DEGREE TOWARD
06Z MAV GUIDANCE WITH THE UPDATE.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
BY THIS EVENING. A LIGHT SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL
LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOCUSED ON THE SRN
ESCARPMENT TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH ANCHORING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED
TO RIPPLE WEST...REACHING THE GA COAST BY 0Z MON. OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE THAN 590DAM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF MAY FORM ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. FORCING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL...FAVORING AREAS ACROSS THE MTNS AND WITHIN THE LEE TROF TO
SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND 5 KFT...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON CIN VALUES OF 10 TO 20 J/KG EAST OF THE MTNS. CAPE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...POSSIBLY BREAKING THE CAP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
HEATING OF THE RIDGES SHOULD RESULT IN TSRA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. I WILL FORECAST
40S POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH 30 TO 20 POPS EAST. COVERAGE SHOULD
FADE DURING THE LATE EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE AROUND CLIMO.

ON MONDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT MID LEVEL TROF WILL PIVOT OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WITH A WEAK LOW OVER
SOUTHERN GA/AL. I WILL FAVOR A NAM/ECMWF BLEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION FROM SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AND CIN SHOULD
BREAK DOWN A LITTLE EARLIER. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
SFC...YIELDING ANOTHER DAY OF MTN INITIATION DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAKER CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
YIELD CHC POPS EAST WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM OVER SUNDAY VALUES BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SFC
FEATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SUBTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN BOTH DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WITH COVERAGE SPREADING EAST DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST COVERAGE AROUND 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LONGWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY DEEPEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...PUSHING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS AT NIGHT
AND INCREASING TO 50 POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CLOUD STREETS AROUND THE CLT AIRFIELD SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN VFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTN. CONVECTION MAY GET A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START THAN
YESTERDAY GIVEN THE EARLY BREAKUP OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE NO CONSENSUS ON TSTM TIMING AT THE TERMINAL. WILL
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AND FEATURE TEMPO TSRA 20Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT S TO SE FLOW WITH MIXING IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY MVFR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SCATTERED OR LIFTED TO MVFR...BUT
WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTIVE CLOUD ROLLS
DEVELOPING. VCSH COVERAGE SHOULD FILL IN WITH HEATING...BUT THERE
ARE NO EASILY TIMED FEATURES TO PIN DOWN THE TSTM MENTION AT
PRESENT. VCTS AFT 18Z STILL LOOKS BEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON S TO
SE FLOW AROUND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH A RETURN TO MVFR THEN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE KAVL TO KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE OVER
MTNS EACH AFTN/EVENING. PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
PSBL EACH DAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 907 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WHAT LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS FALLING APART AND
THERE SHOULD BE NO MORE PRECIPITATION BY 10 PM. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012/

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST WHICH HAS PUSHED THE MOISTURE AXIS THAT CONTAINS
PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
MIDSOUTH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH INTO NW MS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF HAS SEVERELY
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF MEMPHIS FOR NOW. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THOUGH A FEW READINGS ABOVE 90
CAN BE FOUND ACROSS NE MS AND SE PARTS OF WEST TN.

TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH LESS COVERAGE TO THE EAST. SOME OF STORMS WILL
CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION IS MAINLY
SURFACE HEATING BASED SO ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS CONFIRMED NICELY BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
TEMPS WILL START TO HEAT UP INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE LOWER
70S WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THE MID LEVEL
CAPPING WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT OFF
CONVECTION...THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER AS PWAT VALUES
FALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING UP AS WELL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN
UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN GREAT LAKES SENDS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM. THE 12Z GFS LEANS TOWARD MORE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER/WETTER ECMWF AND THE
WARMER/DRIER GFS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (16/00Z-17/00Z)

LINGERING FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MS RIVER WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 16/08Z CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16/17Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TSRA WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THINK THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TSRA
IN ANY OF THE TAFS FOR MONDAY ATTM.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS MONDAY BECOMING S-SW 6-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  93  76  95 /  20  30  10  20
MKL  71  93  72  94 /  20  30  10  20
JBR  73  93  74  95 /  20  20  10  20
TUP  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 608 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012/

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST WHICH HAS PUSHED THE MOISTURE AXIS THAT CONTAINS
PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
MIDSOUTH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH INTO NW MS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF HAS SEVERELY
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF MEMPHIS FOR NOW. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THOUGH A FEW READINGS ABOVE 90
CAN BE FOUND ACROSS NE MS AND SE PARTS OF WEST TN.

TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH LESS COVERAGE TO THE EAST. SOME OF STORMS WILL
CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION IS MAINLY
SURFACE HEATING BASED SO ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS CONFIRMED NICELY BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
TEMPS WILL START TO HEAT UP INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE LOWER
70S WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THE MID LEVEL
CAPPING WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT OFF
CONVECTION...THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER AS PWAT VALUES
FALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING UP AS WELL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN
UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN GREAT LAKES SENDS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM. THE 12Z GFS LEANS TOWARD MORE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER/WETTER ECMWF AND THE
WARMER/DRIER GFS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (16/00Z-17/00Z)

LINGERING FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MS RIVER WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 16/08Z CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16/17Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TSRA WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THINK THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TSRA
IN ANY OF THE TAFS FOR MONDAY ATTM.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS MONDAY BECOMING S-SW 6-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  93  76  95 /  20  30  10  20
MKL  71  93  72  94 /  20  30  10  20
JBR  73  93  74  95 /  20  20  10  20
TUP  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
EAST OF I-55. A STRANGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS EVOLVED OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THINK THIS WILL FILL
BACK IN WITH TIME WITH THE STORMS OVER WRN AND NRN AR PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD. SOME CU IS NOW REDEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS THOUGH ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN OBSERVED
PW VALUES OF 2.1 AND 2.17 INCHES AT LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE...
RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MAY INCREASE TOWARD 2.25 INCHES ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE OVERALL DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT IS
HARD TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMEST SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON THE COOLER SIDE SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE BLISTERING HEAT WAVE WILL RETURN TO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS RIDGE SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL UNDERCUT THE BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HOT AND
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE. THAT LEVEL OF HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS
PRESUMABLY IN THE MID 90S WILL BRING HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO
110 RANGE.

THE RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE A BIT FOR LATE WEEK WITH MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD BY FRIDAY. COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BORGHOFF

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
KMEM WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EDGE. VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED AT KJBR
AND KMEM FROM ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. AFTER 16Z...THE HRRR
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING
ON...INDICATES A LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR KMKL SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP AT KMKL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ON ANY OTHER POTENTIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY THUS WILL
LEAVE VCTS WORDING AT KMEM FROM 18Z-01Z AND AT KTUP FROM 16Z-01Z.
KJBR WILL LIKELY BE WORKED OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS RAIN THUS
CHANCES OF ANY TSRAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS LOW THUS HAVE REMOVED
VCTS WORDING. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  88  76  94 /  60  60  20  30
MKL  71  86  71  92 /  60  60  30  30
JBR  74  87  75  94 /  50  60  20  20
TUP  73  88  73  93 /  50  60  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1126 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
SHREVEPORT LA IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. THIS IS ON THE
LOWER END OF A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS SHEAR AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/ISO TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
TO NUM-OCNL. REST OF THE GRIDS LOOK FINE.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BOROUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HEIGHT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY... WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE INTERIM.

THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL SEE A 590DM
500MB HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SERVE TO SUPPRESS MOST OF NOT ALL NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THE
GFS HINTING AT WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700MB TEMPS ONLY
9C TO 10C. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND WEAK SHEAR...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK... 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
CONSISTENT IN AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS... WHILE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND APPALACHIA
RESULT IN WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDSOUTH. GIVEN
OUR PROXIMITY TO A SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE CENTER... TEMPS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE. WEAK DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIODS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
KMEM WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EDGE. VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED AT KJBR
AND KMEM FROM ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. AFTER 16Z...THE HRRR
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING
ON...INDICATES A LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR KMKL SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP AT KMKL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ON ANY OTHER POTENTIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY THUS WILL
LEAVE VCTS WORDING AT KMEM FROM 18Z-01Z AND AT KTUP FROM 16Z-01Z.
KJBR WILL LIKELY BE WORKED OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS RAIN THUS
CHANCES OF ANY TSRAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS LOW THUS HAVE REMOVED
VCTS WORDING. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  88  74  91  75 /  80  40  50  20
MKL  86  71  91  71 /  80  30  50  20
JBR  85  71  91  72 /  80  40  50  20
TUP  90  73  92  73 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 620 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BOROUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WEAKEN...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HEIGHT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY... WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE INTERIM.

THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL SEE A 590DM
500MB HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SERVE TO SUPPRESS MOST OF NOT ALL NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THE
GFS HINTING AT WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700MB TEMPS ONLY
9C TO 10C. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND WEAK SHEAR...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK... 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
CONSISTENT IN AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS... WHILE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND APPALACHIA
RESULT IN WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDSOUTH. GIVEN
OUR PROXIMITY TO A SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE CENTER... TEMPS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE. WEAK DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIODS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
KMEM WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EDGE. VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED AT KJBR
AND KMEM FROM ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. AFTER 16Z...THE HRRR
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING
ON...INDICATES A LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR KMKL SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP AT KMKL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ON ANY OTHER POTENTIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY THUS WILL
LEAVE VCTS WORDING AT KMEM FROM 18Z-01Z AND AT KTUP FROM 16Z-01Z.
KJBR WILL LIKELY BE WORKED OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS RAIN THUS
CHANCES OF ANY TSRAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS LOW THUS HAVE REMOVED
VCTS WORDING. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  89  74  91  75 /  60  30  50  20
MKL  88  71  91  71 /  60  30  50  20
JBR  88  71  91  72 /  60  40  50  20
TUP  88  73  92  73 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A FEW SHOWERS REMAINS FROM THE EARLIER
ACTIVITY, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINKING AND GENERALLY CALM
WINDS. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE
GROUND REMAINS SOGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL. CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TOMORROW MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012/

UPDATE...BAND OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING,
BETWEEN I-65 AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, IS PROBABLY THE MOST
EXTENSIVE AREA OF DECREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WE`VE SEEN IN THE LAST
2 TO 4 DAYS. THIS BAND COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF DECREASED
1000-500MB MEAN RH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN, FOR THE MOST PART, REMAIN PRECIP-
FREE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, WHERE
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW EITHER ONGOING OR APPROACHING SHOWERS.
LATEST WRF, HRR AND RUC MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO AGREE WITH THIS
GENERAL IDEA

WILL LOWER POPS TO 20% IN THE BAND OF DECREASED MEAN RH (INCLUDING
THE NASHVILLE AREA), AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG
(ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN THINNEST THE LONGEST).

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. 18Z TAFS WILL
CARRY VCSH/VCTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WE THEN ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE ADDED VCSH STARTING AROUND
09Z-10Z...THEN VCTS FOR LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TOO. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN/NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN SPINNING AWAY JUST SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR. WATER VAPOR HIGHLIGHTING THE DIFFERENCE IN
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH FROM A TXK-
UTS-VCT LINE. 12Z LCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING NEARLY 2" PW
AND WITH NO CAP AND CAPE INCREASING TO 2000+ WITH HEATING/K-INDEX
34 OR BETTER EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTERNOON
HEATING SHOULD HELP TO BRING OUT THE SEABREEZE AND HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. HIGHER CAPE AND MODELS INDICATING THE STORM
MOTIONS TO SLOW AND THEN REVERSE. HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY HELP TO KEEP THEM
FORWARD MOVING. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD MORE EASILY REACH
THE 89-92 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
MORNING PRECIP...COOLER SOUTH AND EAST.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MOST OF THE AREA RIVER ISSUES OBVIOUSLY
CONTINUING MOST OF THE RIVERS/CREEKS THAT HAVE BEEN HARDEST HIT
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CRESTED AND BEGUN SLOW FALLS BUT
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS SUCH AS SPRING CREEK AT SPRING AT CREST OR
JUST MAKING THE DOWNWARD TURN. LUCE BAYOU STILL CLIMBING.

SUNDAY...EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE STILL FAVORING SETX WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST THE FLOOD WATCH AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. WILL WAIT TO GET A LOOK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE BEFORE DOING SO.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING BUT AM EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT 850 MB...A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THIS
POSITION IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB
DEW PTS HAVE DROPPED TO 12-14C BUT PW VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.0 INCHES. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A SECOND RIDGE OVER GEORGIA.
BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES IS CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO TEXARKANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE TODAY SO AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH AND
STORM MOTION IS SLOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THAT SAID...FEEL THE
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ATTM DO
NOT FEEL A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED. THE RAP MODEL IS AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
MORE BENIGN.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK 500 MB LOW OR INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN. WILL LEAN TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR
SUNDAY. MON-WED LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO 20/30 POPS FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER
NEXT WEEK SO WILL TREND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WARMER AND
DRIER. 43

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. 34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  73  90  73  92 /  40  20  50  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  74  89  74  91 /  50  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  88  82  90 /  50  30  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1042 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN SPINNING AWAY JUST SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR. WATER VAPOR HIGHLIGHTING THE DIFFERENCE IN
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH FROM A TXK-
UTS-VCT LINE. 12Z LCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING NEARLY 2" PW
AND WITH NO CAP AND CAPE INCREASING TO 2000+ WITH HEATING/K-INDEX
34 OR BETTER EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTERNOON
HEATING SHOULD HELP TO BRING OUT THE SEABREEZE AND HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. HIGHER CAPE AND MODELS INDICATING THE STORM
MOTIONS TO SLOW AND THEN REVERSE. HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY HELP TO KEEP THEM
FORWARD MOVING. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD MORE EASILY REACH
THE 89-92 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
MORNING PRECIP...COOLER SOUTH AND EAST.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MOST OF THE AREA RIVER ISSUES OBVIOUSLY
CONTINUING MOST OF THE RIVERS/CREEKS THAT HAVE BEEN HARDEST HIT
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CRESTED AND BEGUN SLOW FALLS BUT
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS SUCH AS SPRING CREEK AT SPRING AT CREST OR
JUST MAKING THE DOWNWARD TURN. LUCE BAYOU STILL CLIMBING.

SUNDAY...EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE STILL FAVORING SETX WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST THE FLOOD WATCH AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. WILL WAIT TO GET A LOOK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE BEFORE DOING SO.


45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HGX TAF SITES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAINSHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THIS AM BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN AND NEAR PCPN
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AFTER 00Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXISTING TIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN,
PCPN MIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS BACK
TO THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING BUT AM EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT 850 MB...A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THIS
POSITION IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB
DEW PTS HAVE DROPPED TO 12-14C BUT PW VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.0 INCHES. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A SECOND RIDGE OVER GEORGIA.
BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES IS CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO TEXARKANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE TODAY SO AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH AND
STORM MOTION IS SLOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THAT SAID...FEEL THE
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ATTM DO
NOT FEEL A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED. THE RAP MODEL IS AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
MORE BENIGN.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK 500 MB LOW OR INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN. WILL LEAN TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR
SUNDAY. MON-WED LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO 20/30 POPS FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER
NEXT WEEK SO WILL TREND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WARMER AND
DRIER. 43

AVIATION...
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS AM
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE COAST. IFR CIGS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KCXO WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MOSTLY VFR AFTER 16Z. RAINSHOWERS AND
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR PCPN ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT PCPN TO
DIMINISH AROUND 00Z WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO MOST TAF SITES AFTER
06Z. 34

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. 34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  73  90  73  92 /  40  20  50  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  74  89  74  91 /  50  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  88  82  90 /  50  30  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 644 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HGX TAF SITES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAINSHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THIS AM BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN AND NEAR PCPN
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AFTER 00Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXISTING TIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN,
PCPN MIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS BACK
TO THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING BUT AM EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT 850 MB...A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THIS
POSITION IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB
DEW PTS HAVE DROPPED TO 12-14C BUT PW VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.0 INCHES. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A SECOND RIDGE OVER GEORGIA.
BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES IS CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO TEXARKANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE TODAY SO AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH AND
STORM MOTION IS SLOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THAT SAID...FEEL THE
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ATTM DO
NOT FEEL A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED. THE RAP MODEL IS AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
MORE BENIGN.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK 500 MB LOW OR INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN. WILL LEAN TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR
SUNDAY. MON-WED LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO 20/30 POPS FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER
NEXT WEEK SO WILL TREND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WARMER AND
DRIER. 43

AVIATION...
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS AM
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE COAST. IFR CIGS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KCXO WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MOSTLY VFR AFTER 16Z. RAINSHOWERS AND
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR PCPN ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT PCPN TO
DIMINISH AROUND 00Z WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO MOST TAF SITES AFTER
06Z. 34

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. 34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  73  90  73  92 /  40  20  50  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  74  89  74  91 /  50  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  88  82  90 /  50  30  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...34




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 413 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING BUT AM EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT 850 MB...A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THIS
POSITION IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB
DEW PTS HAVE DROPPED TO 12-14C BUT PW VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.0 INCHES. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A SECOND RIDGE OVER GEORGIA.
BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES IS CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO TEXARKANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE TODAY SO AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH AND
STORM MOTION IS SLOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THAT SAID...FEEL THE
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ATTM DO
NOT FEEL A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED. THE RAP MODEL IS AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
MORE BENIGN.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK 500 MB LOW OR INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN. WILL LEAN TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR
SUNDAY. MON-WED LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO 20/30 POPS FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER
NEXT WEEK SO WILL TREND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WARMER AND
DRIER. 43

&&

.AVIATION...
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS AM
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE COAST. IFR CIGS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KCXO WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MOSTLY VFR AFTER 16Z. RAINSHOWERS AND
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR PCPN ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT PCPN TO
DIMINISH AROUND 00Z WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO MOST TAF SITES AFTER
06Z. 34

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. 34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  73  90  73  92 /  40  20  50  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  74  89  74  91 /  50  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  88  82  90 /  50  30  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WHILE RADAR REMAINS QUIET. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE FOG AT SOME OF THE SITES. STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF AREA
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. SEE
A REPEAT PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012/

UPDATE...
WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 9PM THIS EVENING. SOME MINOR
SHORT TERM CHANGES FOR TEMPS..DEW POINTS...SKY COVER AND REDUCE
OVERNIGHT PCPN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
AS PER PAST FEW EVENINGS SHRA/TSRA ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKY COVERAGE ALSO DECREASING. AREA 00Z
RAOBS STILL HAVE 1.9 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH PWAT VALUES SO THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOISTURE LADEN. 1000-700MB MEAN TROUGH DID SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE LAST
NIGHT. 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECM BEGIN TO RETREAT THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS UNSTABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT BEGIN TO DEVELOPMENT ATTAINABLE CAPE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.  LATEST HRRR AND TX TECH WRF RUNS DO NOT FORECAST
EXPLOSIVE TSRA/HVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE REDUCED OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WILL ALLOW FF WATCH TO
EXPIRE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE REDUCED CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT HVY RAINS
KEEPS A DECENTLY LONG NUMBER OF HOURS OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. NEXT
WHICH SHIFT MIGHT NEED TO ISSUE A NEW FF WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA..POSSIBLY MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT AREAS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
GIVEN NO NEWER LARGE SCALE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

NEW ZONES AND PRODUCTS BY 9PM. 04

HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SEVERAL
CREEKS..RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN FLOOD STAGE OR VERY CLOSE.
PLEASE REFER TO RVSHGX AND FLSHGX PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
THESE ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE.  04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY AND ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR COLUMBUS NORTHWESTWARD TO BURNET. EXPECTING THAT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS FROM THIS MORNING BEGIN TO DRIFT THE UPPER
LEVEL WEAKNESS BACK TO THE WEST AND HAVE IT OVERHEAD BY LATE
SATURDAY. STILL THINK THAT SATURDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRIER DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS MAINLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS WELL BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSIT THE
REGION.

HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS THAT HAS
PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE REGION AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO
LOWER OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. 38

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  90  73  91  73 /  20  50  30  50  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  90  73  90  74 /  30  50  20  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  88  82  89  82 /  30  50  30  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...42




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 218 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE HIGH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN
THE VIRGINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MORE ON THE EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MSAS ANALYSIS OF THETA-E VALUES AND THE LIFTED INDEX SHOWS THE
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH AND EXTENDED FROM MARYLAND TO SOUTHERN
OHIO. THE WEDGE HAS ERODED. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM RNK AND GSO
SHOWED CAPES THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 3000 J/KG AND DCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH AND
BASICALLY DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH/SW
FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE RIDGE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WHICH PROVIDED ENOUGH
HEATING SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...FOCUS LIKELY TIED MORE TO
OROGRAPHICS IN THE WEST AND OLD OUTFLOW IN THE EAST...PRODUCING A
MORE SCATTERED NATURE COVERAGE PER LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SOLNS.
APPEARS DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS THE NW
WHERE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RESIDUAL FRONT. THUS MAY INCLUDE SOME
LOW AFTERNOON LIKELY POPS IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE ELSW WITH SOME OF THIS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HEATING GETS GOING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL STEERING OF AROUND 10 MPH AND VERY MOIST PWATS OF
1.75 INCHES OR BETTER SO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS A THREAT
ESPCLY IF THINGS BAND UP ALONG THE RIDGES. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
TRICKY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME BREAKS BUT THEN
QUICKLY DEVELOP CONVECTION WHICH MAY CURTAIL TEMP RISES. LATEST
MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN EARLY CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHRA WHILE
THE MET TOO SLOW TO EXIT THE WEAK WEDGE. THUS GOING IN BETWEEN AND
CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH PUTS THE WEST IN THE 76-82
RANGE AND MAINLY MID/UPR 80S EAST.

UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FARTHER
INLAND. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 5H HEIGHTS SHOULD END MOST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA
THREAT FAR WEST. WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 65-72
UNDER A MOIST AND SOUPY ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLIER
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A VORTICITY AXIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CURRENT OVER THE
REGION...WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE VORTICITY AXIS TO MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE ADDITION OF SHORT WAVES
COMING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS DURING PEAK
HEATING AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY STRONG
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOW AND COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD HELP COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BUT
UNTIL THEY DO...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5F
TO 10F. IF THESE SHOWERS COOLING THE TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR...THERE I DID NOT
STRAY TO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. RIDGE
FLATTENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO DISTINCT FEATURES TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +18 TO +20 RANGE. WILL KEEP DAILY
PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN DANVILLE AND
LYNCHBURG AND BETWEEN BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE FER MORE HOURS FOR STORMS TO REACH BCB AND ROA. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AT RNK AND GSO SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE STORMS WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS.

LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT LWB...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HAVE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH
PROGRESSIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR EXPECT BRIEFLY UNDER THOSE
ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM.

BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM RNK
AND GSO SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS ABOUT 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS AROUND
20,000 FEET AND STEERING FLOW IS ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS SO HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED. FFG IN SOME SPOTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...
ESPECIALLY FROM WILKES COUNTY INTO PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IS NEAR 2
INCHES. GETTING RATES OF 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE HINTON TRANSMITTER REMAINS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ015>017-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1240 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE HIGH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN
THE VIRGINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MORE ON THE EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE.

MSAS ANALYSIS OF THETA-E VALUES AND THE LIFTED INDEX SHOWS THE
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH AND EXTENDED FROM MARYLAND TO SOUTHERN
OHIO. THE WEDGE HAS ERODED. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM RNK AND GSO
SHOWED CAPES THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 3000 J/KG AND DCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH AND
BASICALLY DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH/SW
FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE RIDGE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WHICH PROVIDED ENOUGH
HEATING SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...FOCUS LIKELY TIED MORE TO
OROGRAPHICS IN THE WEST AND OLD OUTFLOW IN THE EAST...PRODUCING A
MORE SCATTERED NATURE COVERAGE PER LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SOLNS.
APPEARS DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS THE NW
WHERE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RESIDUAL FRONT. THUS MAY INCLUDE SOME
LOW AFTERNOON LIKELY POPS IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE ELSW WITH SOME OF THIS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HEATING GETS GOING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL STEERING OF AROUND 10 MPH AND VERY MOIST PWATS OF
1.75 INCHES OR BETTER SO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS A THREAT
ESPCLY IF THINGS BAND UP ALONG THE RIDGES. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
TRICKY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME BREAKS BUT THEN
QUICKLY DEVELOP CONVECTION WHICH MAY CURTAIL TEMP RISES. LATEST
MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN EARLY CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHRA WHILE
THE MET TOO SLOW TO EXIT THE WEAK WEDGE. THUS GOING IN BETWEEN AND
CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH PUTS THE WEST IN THE 76-82
RANGE AND MAINLY MID/UPR 80S EAST.

UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FARTHER
INLAND. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 5H HEIGHTS SHOULD END MOST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA
THREAT FAR WEST. WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 65-72
UNDER A MOIST AND SOUPY ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLIER
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A VORTICITY AXIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CURRENT OVER THE
REGION...WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE VORTICITY AXIS TO MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE ADDITION OF SHORT WAVES
COMING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS DURING PEAK
HEATING AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY STRONG
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOW AND COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD HELP COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BUT
UNTIL THEY DO...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5F
TO 10F. IF THESE SHOWERS COOLING THE TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR...THERE I DID NOT
STRAY TO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. RIDGE
FLATTENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO DISTINCT FEATURES TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +18 TO +20 RANGE. WILL KEEP DAILY
PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ATTM AND EXPECT
SOME THIS COVERAGE MAY AFFECT KBCB/KROA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE FADING. OTRW EXPECT A VARIETY OF CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY ON...RANGING FROM IFR/MVFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO MAINLY VFR OVER THE WEST. MAY ADD IN A VCSH MENTION AT
KBCB AND KROA THIS MORNING BEFORE THINGS MIX OUT A BIT TO PERHAPS
A PERIOD OF VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE RENEWED CONVECTION GETS
GOING AFTER MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPCLY OVER THE WEST WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS. APPEARS THAT WITH
ENOUGH HEATING MAY HAVE DECENT COVERAGE ESPCLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCTS OR
PREVAILING SHRA MENTION OVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND VCSH
OUT EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE PENDING THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION
LATER ON. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO FADE A BIT SOONER THIS EVENING
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE DIURNAL
AND ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WITH PROGRESSIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR EXPECT BRIEFLY
UNDER THOSE ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
OR STORM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM RNK
AND GSO SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS ABOUT 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS AROUND
20,000 FEET AND STEERING FLOW IS ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS SO HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED. FFG IN SOME SPOTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...
ESPECIALLY FROM WILKES COUNTY INTO PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IS NEAR 2
INCHES. GETTING RATES OF 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE HINTON TRANSMITTER REMAINS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ015>017-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS
EQUIPMENT...JH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 707 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE HIGH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH AND
BASICALLY DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH/SW
FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE RIDGE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WHICH PROVIDED ENOUGH
HEATING SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...FOCUS LIKELY TIED MORE TO
OROGRAPHICS IN THE WEST AND OLD OUTFLOW IN THE EAST...PRODUCING A
MORE SCATTERED NATURE COVERAGE PER LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SOLNS.
APPEARS DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS THE NW
WHERE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RESIDUAL FRONT. THUS MAY INCLUDE SOME
LOW AFTERNOON LIKELY POPS IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE ELSW WITH SOME OF THIS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HEATING GETS GOING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL STEERING OF AROUND 10 MPH AND VERY MOIST PWATS OF
1.75 INCHES OR BETTER SO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS A THREAT
ESPCLY IF THINGS BAND UP ALONG THE RIDGES. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
TRICKY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME BREAKS BUT THEN
QUICKLY DEVELOP CONVECTION WHICH MAY CURTAIL TEMP RISES. LATEST
MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN EARLY CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHRA WHILE
THE MET TOO SLOW TO EXIT THE WEAK WEDGE. THUS GOING IN BETWEEN AND
CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH PUTS THE WEST IN THE 76-82
RANGE AND MAINLY MID/UPR 80S EAST.

UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FARTHER
INLAND. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 5H HEIGHTS SHOULD END MOST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA
THREAT FAR WEST. WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 65-72
UNDER A MOIST AND SOUPY ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLIER
STORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A VORTICITY AXIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CURRENT OVER THE
REGION...WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE VORTICITY AXIS TO MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE ADDITION OF SHORT WAVES
COMING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS DURING PEAK
HEATING AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY STRONG
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOW AND COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD HELP COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BUT
UNTIL THEY DO...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5F
TO 10F. IF THESE SHOWERS COOLING THE TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR...THERE I DID NOT
STRAY TO FAR FROM THEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. RIDGE
FLATTENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO DISTINCT FEATURES TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +18 TO +20 RANGE. WILL KEEP DAILY
PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ATTM AND EXPECT
SOME THIS COVERAGE MAY AFFECT KBCB/KROA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE FADING. OTRW EXPECT A VARIETY OF CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY ON...RANGING FROM IFR/MVFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO MAINLY VFR OVER THE WEST. MAY ADD IN A VCSH MENTION AT
KBCB AND KROA THIS MORNING BEFORE THINGS MIX OUT A BIT TO PERHAPS
A PERIOD OF VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE RENEWED CONVECTION GETS
GOING AFTER MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPCLY OVER THE WEST WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS. APPEARS THAT WITH
ENOUGH HEATING MAY HAVE DECENT COVERAGE ESPCLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCTS OR
PREVAILING SHRA MENTION OVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND VCSH
OUT EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE PENDING THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION
LATER ON. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO FADE A BIT SOONER THIS EVENING
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE DIURNAL
AND ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WITH PROGRESSIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR EXPECT BRIEFLY
UNDER THOSE ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
OR STORM.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE HINTON TRANSMITTER REMAINS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE HIGH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH AND
BASICALLY DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH/SW
FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE RIDGE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WHICH PROVIDED ENOUGH
HEATING SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...FOCUS LIKELY TIED MORE TO
OROGRAPHICS IN THE WEST AND OLD OUTFLOW IN THE EAST...PRODUCING A
MORE SCATTERED NATURE COVERAGE PER LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SOLNS.
APPEARS DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E MOUNTAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS THE NW
WHERE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RESIDUAL FRONT. THUS MAY INCLUDE SOME
LOW AFTERNOON LIKELY POPS IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE ELSW WITH SOME OF THIS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HEATING GETS GOING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL STEERING OF AROUND 10 MPH AND VERY MOIST PWATS OF
1.75 INCHES OR BETTER SO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS A THREAT
ESPCLY IF THINGS BAND UP ALONG THE RIDGES. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
TRICKY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME BREAKS BUT THEN
QUICKLY DEVELOP CONVECTION WHICH MAY CURTAIL TEMP RISES. LATEST
MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN EARLY CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHRA WHILE
THE MET TOO SLOW TO EXIT THE WEAK WEDGE. THUS GOING IN BETWEEN AND
CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH PUTS THE WEST IN THE 76-82
RANGE AND MAINLY MID/UPR 80S EAST.

UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FARTHER
INLAND. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 5H HEIGHTS SHOULD END MOST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA
THREAT FAR WEST. WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 65-72
UNDER A MOIST AND SOUPY ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLIER
STORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A VORTICITY AXIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CURRENT OVER THE
REGION...WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE VORTICITY AXIS TO MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE ADDITION OF SHORT WAVES
COMING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS DURING PEAK
HEATING AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY STRONG
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOW AND COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD HELP COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BUT
UNTIL THEY DO...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5F
TO 10F. IF THESE SHOWERS COOLING THE TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR...THERE I DID NOT
STRAY TO FAR FROM THEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. RIDGE
FLATTENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO DISTINCT FEATURES TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +18 TO +20 RANGE. WILL KEEP DAILY
PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FADE OR EXIT THE REGION ATTM AND
SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK IF NOT SOONER. OTRW ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. ANY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-16Z...10AM- NOON...ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. APPEARS THAT WITH ENOUGH HEATING MAY
HAVE DECENT COVERAGE ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION OVER THE WEST AND
VCSH OUT EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE PENDING THE DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION LATER ON.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE DIURNAL
AND ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WITH PROGRESSIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR EXPECT BRIEFLY
UNDER THOSE ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
OR STORM.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE HINTON TRANSMITTER REMAINS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/DS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ON THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  YESTERDAYS UPPER TROUGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WISCONSIN LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IN A REGION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.  DIURNAL CU HAS
POPPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND AREA RADARS HAVE
DETECTED A SOLE SPRINKLE THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE
PORTAGE/WAUPACA BORDER.  THE CU LOOKS RATHER FEISTY SO WILL ADD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS AND TEMPS INCLUDING HEAT HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS.  UPSTREAM
MID-DECK AND CIRRUS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL PICK UP LATE.  THESE CONDITIONS POINT TOWARDS
A WARMER NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

MONDAY...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRETTY DRY...SO THINKING THERE IS SLIM CHANCES
OF A COOLING THUNDERSTORM.  WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR
NORTHERN VILAS IN CASE A ROGUE STORM DECIDES TO MAKE A RUN TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTY.  OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TOMORROW.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB TEMPS IN THE
24-25C RANGE WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS NEAR 100F.  A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GOOD MIXING GREATER THAN 800MB...AND HELP TO
MIX OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.  BUT THE GOOD MIXING ALSO
SUPPORTS GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PLACES HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LOW TO MID 90S FARTHER NORTH.  SOME 100S WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN
THE HOT SPOTS AROUND WAUPACA AND WAUSHARA.  ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPS
IS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM...THOUGH ITS TOUGH TO
GAUGE HOW THICK IT WILL BE TOMORROW.  BECAUSE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
BE MIXING OUT...THINK HEAT INDICES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  NONETHELESS...NO POINT IN CANCELLING
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT AS POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE THERE AND IT WILL
BE VERY HOT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN POSITION/STRENGTH OF STRONG
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WITH SYSTEMS EJECTING OUT OF WESTERN TROF THROUGH
CANADA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START OUT WARM...THEN RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BEFORE HEATING UP AGAIN ON THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY WILL BE DEALING WITH COOL FRONT MOVING INTO/THROUGH CWA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER JET REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH...PULLS OUT TUE NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH
LIMITED. NAM STRONGER WITH SURFACE LOW...FASTER WITH FRONT
PASSING...AND SHOWS DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EC ON SLOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH SYSTEM AND FOR PAST TWO RUNS SUGGESTS MCS/S MAY MOVE ALONG
FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. NOT SEEING ANY SIG
FORCING FOR SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR SOME RELATIVELY WEAK WAA OVER
MN/SD. FEW TEMPS/HEAT INDICES REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TUE AFTN OVER
THE SOUTH...BUT WILL NOT EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY GIVEN CLOUD/PCPN
CONCERNS. CWA REMAINS ON EDGE OF SEE TEXT BY SPC FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT. SHEAR IS LIMITED...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WITH SOME TO THE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR WED-FRI PERIOD.

SPREAD SEEN IN ENSEMBLES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE
POSITION/STRENGTH...THOUGH MEANS SUGGEST GOING ON THE WARM
SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH JUST SOME MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS.

RDM
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ020-021-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 229 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPED MIDDAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOX VALLEY
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE MOST PROMINENT BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM ABOUT HOUGHTON TO EAU
CLAIRE.  AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT CONVERGENCE UP TO 700 MB DOES LINGER OVER THE
FAR EAST UNTIL 06Z SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THROUGH
THAT TIME.  PLENTY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UPSTREAM OVER MINNESOTA AND
THINK THIS CLEARING WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.  THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST...ESPECIALLY IF GOOD RAINS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...SO THINK THE COMBO OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION.  WILL INCREASE WORDING TO AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S IN
THE COLD SPOTS.

SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED WELL TO EAST AT THE START OF
SUNDAY...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE REBOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED...WILL HAVE INSTABILITY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BUT PLENTY OF DRY
AIR WILL EXIST ABOVE THE MIXED LEVEL AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPPING WILL STRENGTHEN AS HEIGHTS REBOUND.  DESPITE WEAK
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER NE WISCONSIN ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...THINK THE MIXING OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING
CAPPING WILL THWART SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WILL STICK WITH A DRY
FORECAST.  850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C ARGUES FOR LOW 90S FOR HIGHS...AND
WILL GO WITH UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OVERALL CURRENT TROF AND RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE U.S TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT OVER AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN WESTERLIES REMAINING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEALING WITH
RIDGE...ITS STRENGTH AND LOCATION AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND
OVER THE SOUTH HALF ON TUESDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS SOME RELIEF TO ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY ONWARD. OVERALL MAX
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AT OR ABOVE NORMS.

ON MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS SUN AND MON LEANING TOWARDS MUGGY SIDE. HEAT
INDICES OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE PASS TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL FRONT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION. HAVE SLOWED PCPN MOVING INTO AREA KEEPING IT CLOSER TO OR
BEHIND FRONT...MORE COLLATED WITH 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. BEST POPS
NORTH MON NIGHT CLOSER TO SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS.

ON TUESDAY...FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FRONT WEAKENS AND HAVE LOSS OF JET SUPPORT...SO WILL
STAY WITH LOWER POPS AS IT MOVES SOUTH. QUESTION THIS DAY IS MORE
ON TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN CAUSING ISSUES. FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LLVL WINDS TO KEEP LAKE BREEZE RIGHT
ALONG LAKE. SHEER IS LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIG SEVERE ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A BIT LESS HEAT
BUT ALSO DRIER AIRMASS INTO STATE...WITH DEW POINTS RETURNING INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY.
&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR
CIGS...IFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.  PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH
FOG WILL THEN BECOME A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSUMING SHOWERS
HIT THE TAF SITES.  HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT FOR
FOG...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY REVISE DEPENDING UPON SHOWER COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME.

MPC
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
MPC/TE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1153 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.UPDATE...

WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION IN SOUTHEAST WI HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO SHOWERS DISSIPATED.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THE
500MB VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS...RIGHT ALONG A SURFACE WIND SHIFT AXIS. THEY ARE SUPPORTED
BY 250MB DIVERGENCE...850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND WEAK
925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FORCING TO VERY SLOWLY
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON.

ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON...THERE
IS WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SMALL
CLUSTERS OR SHORT LINES...AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR STORM GENERATION...GIVEN LACK OF A COLD FRONT OR WARM
FRONT PASSAGE.

KEPT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO GROW TALLER PER
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 THIS AFTERNOON AND K INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE MID
30S...SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO YESTERDAY. RAP SHORT TERM MODEL STILL
SHOWS MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR...SO MAIN THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW
5000 FEET...ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO 90 FOR TODAY IF THE SKIES
STAY CLEAR LONGER. WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTING MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE CLOUDS SHOULD STILL FILL IN MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF SMALL CLUSTERS OR SHORT LINES...AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR STORM GENERATION...GIVEN
LACK OF A COLD FRONT OR WARM FRONT PASSAGE. IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES
OVER THE TAF SITE...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE WIND SHIFT AXIS...WHICH IS IN NORTHEAST IOWA/FAR WESTERN
WI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE VERY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT REACH SOUTHEAST WI
UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING SOMEWHAT SHARP SHORT-WAVE
ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS FOUND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE FROM 5 TO 10 THSD FT AGL...WHICH
HAS FUELED BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONE BAND WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER ON IN MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS WE SHOULD SEE EFFECTS OF MAIN TROF COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. MAIN TROUGH IS REFLECTED BY LINE OF CONVECTION FROM
WEST OF LA CROSSE UP TO TAYLOR COUNTY AT 3 AM. AS THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED...DAYTIME HEATING WITH DECENT CAP...BUT
LIMITED BULK SHEAR WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LOW-END SEVERE
STORMS. IN ANY CASE...ANY STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUATION OF FORMATION OF BANDS AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO WILL GO WITH POPS OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. MODELS PRETTY MUCH BRING BACK SIDE OF TROUGH
THROUGH BY 06Z. AFTER 06Z THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF LINGER SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HANG-BACK PORTION OF
TROUGH. HOWEVER...CANADIAN MODEL ENDS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 06Z.
HAVE GONE DRY AFTER 06Z TO BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING WEATHER
OFFICES.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. PRECIP
CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. WILL STICK WITH THE GOING DRY
LOOK PER ALLBLEND POPS. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
WITH WARMING 925 TEMPS. GFS HAS A USUAL COOL AND MOIST BIAS WHILE
THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE 925 TEMPS REACHING
25-28C...EAST TO WEST. LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER NAM MOS DEW POINTS.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
588-590DM UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HEAT KICKS IN
EVEN FURTHER WITH 925 TEMPS NOW TO 28-30C. SHOULD BE ABLE TO CRACK
100 IN SOME SPOTS AGAIN. GFS DEW POINTS LOOK TOO HIGH...LEANED MORE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES A BIT WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT STARTING TO MAKE
A SOUTHWARD PUSH...HOWEVER NAM/ECMWF/GEMNH SUGGEST PRECIP CONFINED
MORE TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850 MILLIBAR
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ECMWF/GFS SURFACE FRONTAL TIMING FAIRLY
CLOSE...EDGING INTO SRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT THE 925 TEMPS DO STILL SUGGEST A HOT
AIRMASS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI WITH READINGS OF
28-30C. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIKELY
SUPPORT ADVISORY TYPE HEAT HEADLINES. TRENDED POPS NORTH AS GFS
GENERATING TOO MUCH WARM SECTOR PRECIP. APPEARS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
BE CAPPED WITH BULK OF CONVECTION ELEVATED IN POST-FRONTAL FASHION.
THIS BEST PLAYED OUT BY ECMWF/GEM AND EXTRAP OF NAM. THIS TRANSLATES
TO BEST WINDOW FOR SRN WI PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL. A BRIEF COOLER REGIME THURSDAY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW THEN TEMPS REBOUND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH A MORE OF A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST WITH SOME
HINT OF RIPPLES RIDING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER FLOW. GEM
AND GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGE THAN ECMWF.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...DOMINATE WEATHER WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH 12Z WITH VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 5
MILES. IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE...VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 3 MILES...AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE. THIS HAPPENED WITH A CELL THAT MOVED OVER THE MTROVS
/BOSCOBEL/ LOCATION IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING. AN
UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL
ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SMALL CLUSTERS OR SHORT LINES...AND
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR STORM
GENERATION...GIVEN LACK OF A COLD FRONT OR WARM FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...KAPELA
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

 343 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CO TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. THE LATEST HRRR CONFINES THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD IT WILL BE TOO STABLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  WL KEEP ISOLD POPS IN ZONE 38 BUT DROP IT FOR THE
REMAINDER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH VALUES CLOSE TO ONE INCH IN THE AFTERNOON.
FCST CAPES IN THE MOUNTAINS 300-400 J/KG WITH VALUES 800-1100 J/KG
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
HOT AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN...CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INHIBIT HEATING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...591 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES ITS
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE SHIFT ALLOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
TO TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR UP OVER
COLORADO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS LATEST PLUME OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS NEITHER AS MOIST OR AS DEEP AS THE PLUME
WE DEALT WITH A WEEK OR SO AGO WHEN STORMS BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND
RESULTING FLASH FLOODING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE AXIS OF THE
500-700MB MOISTURE STREAM STARTS OUT OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY MODELS SHOW IT
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE MTNS AND AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE FRONT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/THERMAL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PASSING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
T-STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. HIGH SCATTERED POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW FOR THE MTNS AND NEARBY PLAINS...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN
DECREASING FARTHER OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE THE AIRMAS STILL
APPEARS WEAKLY CAPPED. COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
STORMS IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SHEAR NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS LOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE NEARLY AS
WET/STORMY AS ON MONDAY WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUING TO CREEP EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE
A FEW LATE STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER
AND NEAR THE MTNS. SHOULD ALSO SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THE
PLAINS WITH INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A GUSTY SOUTHEAST
FLOW. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE T-STORM ON THE PLAINS
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
MONSOON MOISTURE FLOW APPEARS TO WEAKEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT
EAST WEAKENING SOME. THEREFORE T-STORM CHANCES SHOULD GO DOWN AND
WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE UPWARD.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE GREAT PLAINS
RIDGE STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD WESTERN TOWARDS
THE ROCKY MTN REGION. INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE
APPEARS TO BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR UP INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY WEEK`S END...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF COLORADO BY THE WEEK. SO POSSIBLY ANOTHER SHOT FOR
DECENT RAINFALL BY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING
THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND DECREASE AFTER
06Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE TSTMS IN ANY OF THE DENVER TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SUNDAY
AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS OVER THE NEXT 18Z HOURS
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE BURN
AREAS UNTIL AROUND 04Z...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS LOW...THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE 0.10-0.20 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 30 MINUTES.
INCREASING CHANCE OF TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1131 AM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...DRIFTING OFF INTO THE
NEIGHBORING VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN
THE ALS TAF 20Z-02Z TIME FRAME...THOUGH AGAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS
WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT THAN LOW CIGS/VIS. -TSRA WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER 02Z...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER DECREASING
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN 00Z SOUNDINGS AND IN DERIVED
SATELLITE PRODUCTS RUNNING FROM 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO NEAR 130% OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. DEEPEST FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG AN AXIS FROM AZ THROUGH UT INTO ID AND
WESTERN WY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNDER MORE OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP SPEED UP STORM
MOTIONS TODAY (TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH)...AS WELL AS
EDGE THE MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD. NAM12 AND HRRR KEEP DEW POINTS
TODAY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CHAFFEE AND LAKE COUNTIES...UP FROM
YESTERDAYS VALUES IN THE 20S AND EVEN SOME TEENS. NAM12 SFC DEW
POINTS ARE STILL LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THINK AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MAINTAINING IN THE 30S LOOKS PLAUSIBLE TODAY AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST MTS/PIKES
PEAK REGION SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SFC DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HELP CUT BACK ON CAPE VALUES
AND KEEP STORMS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST...THEY MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
DRIFTING OFF THE SE MTS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BUT WITH DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER...THINK THAT MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH...BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING...BEFORE
THEY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.

MEANWHILE...THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OUT THAT WAY...THOUGH WITH STORM MOTIONS A LITTLE FASTER
TODAY...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MORE LOCALIZED TO
BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS SUCH AS THE CHALK CLIFFS.  ONCE
AGAIN...NOT ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO WARRANT ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
DUE TO SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING. ONCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE MTS THOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM
THUNDERSTORM ANVILS MAY TEMPER FURTHER WARMING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM SEEING TEMPS HIT 100.  FARTHER TO THE EAST
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DIURNALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS GOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME WILL BE OVERHEAD.  MIN TEMPS WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE ONCE AGAIN DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. -KT

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

..THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 18 DEG C OR HIGHER OVER THE SRN
FRONT RANGE. BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN BE CONFINED TO THE
CONTDVD...AND WITH SRLY TO SW WINDS...SHOULD EASILY APPROACH OR
EXCEED THE 100 DEG MARK OVR THE ERN PLAINS.

MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SERN CO IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHIFTS A BIT EWD INTO CENTRAL
CO. THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASED
UPSLOPE FROM THE SURGE SHOULD SPARK AN INCREASE INCONVECTION ALONG
THE ERN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE.
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
PLAINS...AS THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPS NR 100 DEG AGAIN
FOR KPUB. HAVE KEPT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/MET...WHICH
PROGS UPPER 90S FOR THE PLAINS.

BY TUE-WED...THE MONSOON IS IN FULL SWING...WITH THE PLUME OVR ERN
CO AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RAMP UP OF STORMS OVR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND STORMS PERSISTING
A BIT LATER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING FOR THE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE THE CHIEF CONCERN. GREATEST THREAT ATTM
APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND TUE EVENING...WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL QPF IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE.

BY THU-FRI...STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE
EVOLVES. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT WWD
AGAIN...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE MOISTURE
PLUME IS A BIT UP IN THE AIR. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY
SIDE...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER TO STRENGTHEN THE HIGH OVR AREA AND
CONSEQUENTLY KEEPS MORE MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE S ON THU
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS HINTED AT IN THE 00Z GFS.
FOR NOW...STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST...WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS/TEMPS. 44

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...DRIFTING OFF INTO THE NEIGHBORING
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  KALS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN
ISOLATED -TSRA AND WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THAT
SITE...WHERE BRIEF VFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO HIT THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...SO WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THOSE SITES FOR NOW.  WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KTS FOR BOTH KPUB AND KCOS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  -TSRA WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 01-02Z...WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER DECREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10/23






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 422 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORMED ALONG S COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LEFTOVER
INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND THEY WILL EXIT COAST BY 4 AM.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAK COLD FRONT
IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REACH COAST AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE RAPID CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON W/NW
WINDS.

ISSUE FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS ALL
WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS/STORMS TO VARIOUS DEGREES. 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS ACTIVITY ALONG SECONDARY FRONT BUT KEEPS MUCH OF IT TO
OUR N...00Z NAM FOCUSES DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT IN
EASTERN MA BUT BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY IN THIS EVENING FROM NW...AND
3KM HRRR DEVELOPS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR.

WHILE THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RIDGING ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS ALSO MEAGER
AS ARE LAPSE RATES. OUR THINKING IS COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT
BEST AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR E MA SEA BREEZE FRONT AS WELL AS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR /NEAR BERKSHIRES/ DUE TO APPROACH OF SECONDARY
FRONT. WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BUT HAVE HIGHER /10%/
VALUES IN THESE AREAS.

FORECAST HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS...RANGING FROM 80S ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS TO LOWER AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST
WHERE FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW.

QUESTION FOR TUE IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE RECORD WARMTH. CERTAINLY
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 100-DEGREE READINGS AWAY FROM S COAST AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SIGNIFICANTLY /AROUND +20C AT 850 MB/.
HOWEVER MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
MAY END UP BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...PUTTING A LID ON HEATING. THIS DIFFERENCE IS REFLECTED
IN WARMER NAM MOS WHICH HAS HIGHS AROUND 100 FOR MUCH OF AREA...WHILE
GFS MOS SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND HAS HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90.

GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WE WILL SPLIT DIFFERENCE BUT LEAN CLOSER
TO WARMER NAM MOS GIVEN SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM S COAST. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS
TO FALL INTO LOW TO MID 60S TUE AFTERNOON...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /100-104
DEGREES/.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...AFTER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON TUE...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

16/00Z GUIDANCE ARE TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE ARE
STILL QUESTIONABLE BASED ON THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS. DECIDED TO SLOW
THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
THINK MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY NORTH OF I-90.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR IT
TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN NH AROUND DAYBREAK WED...WITH A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN NW MA AND SOUTHERN NH LATE
TUE NIGHT. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE
OVER CT...RI...AND SE MA WHERE WE HAVE FORECAST 40-45 PERCENT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...A FRONT CAUSING FORCING...AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KT...A FEW COULD REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO WED NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
BUT SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE
NORTHWARD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. GREAT
SLEEPING WEATHER WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

THE COOLEST OF THE DAYS MAY BE ON FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +9C TO +10C ON BOTH ECMWF AND GFS. IF IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCT TSTMS WILL AFFECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH 08Z WITH
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST OVER SE NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SEE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 12Z-15Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTM AGAIN 18Z-22Z MAINLY IN
EASTERN MA NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VFR TONIGHT AND TUE...ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING INTO TUE MORNING AS FOG/LOW
CLOUDS REFORM WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED 16Z-18Z. MAY SEE
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM 18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...THEN VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY. A FEW TSTMS
MAY BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CT/RI/SE MA. CHANCE TSTMS CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. SW FLOW
15KT OR LESS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD SEAS ON S COASTAL
WATERS TO 3 OR 4 FT S OF ISLANDS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HIGH IN THIS PATTERN.

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ON
S COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

SEAS BUILD AGAIN WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LOW
RISK OF 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED
AND WED NIGHT.

SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AS A RESULT OF NE WINDS THU
AND FRI. THE NE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE JUL 17:

BOS...98 IN 1999 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
PVD...97 IN 1999 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
BDL...97 IN 1999
ORH...93 IN 1900

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/BELK
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...JWD/BELK
MARINE...JWD/BELK
CLIMATE...STAFF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 255 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORMED ALONG S COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LEFTOVER
INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND THEY WILL EXIT COAST BY 4 AM.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAK COLD FRONT
IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REACH COAST AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE RAPID CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON W/NW
WINDS.

ISSUE FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS ALL
WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS/STORMS TO VARIOUS DEGREES. 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS ACTIVITY ALONG SECONDARY FRONT BUT KEEPS MUCH OF IT TO
OUR N...00Z NAM FOCUSES DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT IN
EASTERN MA BUT BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY IN THIS EVENING FROM NW...AND
3KM HRRR DEVELOPS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR.

WHILE THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RIDGING ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS ALSO MEAGER
AS ARE LAPSE RATES. OUR THINKING IS COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT
BEST AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR E MA SEA BREEZE FRONT AS WELL AS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR /NEAR BERKSHIRES/ DUE TO APPROACH OF SECONDARY
FRONT. WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BUT HAVE HIGHER /10%/
VALUES IN THESE AREAS.

FORECAST HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS...RANGING FROM 80S ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS TO LOWER AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST
WHERE FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW.

QUESTION FOR TUE IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE RECORD WARMTH. CERTAINLY
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 100-DEGREE READINGS AWAY FROM S COAST AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SIGNIFICANTLY /AROUND +20C AT 850 MB/.
HOWEVER MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
MAY END UP BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...PUTTING A LID ON HEATING. THIS DIFFERENCE IS REFLECTED
IN WARMER NAM MOS WHICH HAS HIGHS AROUND 100 FOR MUCH OF AREA...WHILE
GFS MOS SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND HAS HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90.

GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WE WILL SPLIT DIFFERENCE BUT LEAN CLOSER
TO WARMER NAM MOS GIVEN SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM S COAST. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS
TO FALL INTO LOW TO MID 60S TUE AFTERNOON...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /100-104
DEGREES/.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...AFTER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON TUE... A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...COMBINED WITH 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
BETWEEN +25C AND +28C... WILL LEAD TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/. MADE NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST SINCE IT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HOT
NAM WHICH GIVES 101 TO BDL...AND THE COOLER GFS WHICH HAS 94 FOR
BDL. IF A SEA BREEZE FORMS AT BOSTON...IT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF
AND IN THE LATE MORNING/VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. 925 MB WINDS ARE 10
KT ON GFS AT 18Z BUT 15 KT ON NAM. THEY INCREASE TO 20 AND 25 KT
RESPECTIVELY BY 00Z WED...WHICH SHOULD STOP ANY SEA BREEZES.

700 MB TEMPS WARM TO +10C TO +12C WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PUT A
LID ON ANY CONVECTION...SO HAVE A DRY DAY FORECAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN NH AROUND
DAYBREAK WED...WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN NW MA
AND SOUTHERN NH LATE TUE NIGHT. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE OVER CT...RI...AND SE MA WHERE WE HAVE
FORECAST 40-45 PERCENT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID LEVELS
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...A FRONT
CAUSING FORCING...AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT...A FEW COULD
REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE CHANCE WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO WED
NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. GREAT
SLEEPING WEATHER WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

THE COOLEST OF THE DAYS MAY BE ON FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +9C TO +10C ON BOTH ECMWF AND GFS. POSSIBLE
THAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCT TSTMS WILL AFFECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH 08Z WITH
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST OVER SE NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SEE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 12Z-15Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTM AGAIN 18Z-22Z MAINLY IN
EASTERN MA NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VFR TONIGHT AND TUE...ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING INTO TUE MORNING AS FOG/LOW
CLOUDS REFORM WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED 16Z-18Z. MAY SEE
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM 18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...THEN VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY. A FEW TSTMS
MAY BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN
CT/RI/SE MA. CHANCE TSTMS CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. SW FLOW
15KT OR LESS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD SEAS ON S COASTAL
WATERS TO 3 OR 4 FT S OF ISLANDS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HIGH IN THIS PATTERN.

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ON
S COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

SEAS BUILD AGAIN WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LOW
RISK OF 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED
AND WED NIGHT.

SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AS A RESULT OF NE WINDS THU
AND FRI. THE NE WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE JUL 17:

BOS...98 IN 1999 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
PVD...97 IN 1999 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
BDL...97 IN 1999
ORH...93 IN 1900

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...BELK/JWD
MARINE...BELK/JWD
CLIMATE...STAFF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 330 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. WE FIND A DOUBLE TUTT
(TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW FEATURE WITH ONE LOW CENTER
JUST OFF THE JACKSONVILLE COAST...AND ANOTHER MOVING WESTWARD OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TUTT CELL OFF THE JACKSONVILLE COAST IS
PROGGED BY ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE TO BECOME THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE
TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE OTHER UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HELP ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SLOWLY LOSING INFLUENCE THEREAFTER.
DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 2" ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FL. SOME WEAK DRYING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TUTT CIRCULATION. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO HELP PROVIDE MORE SUN
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. OF NOTE...DETECTING SOME
LIGHTNING FLASHES UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE TUTT CELL OFF
JACKSONVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING...INDICATIVE OF SOME RATHER COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS COLDER AIRMASS
MAY BECOME A PLAYER OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TERMS OF ENHANCING CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE SE FL COAST AND IN THE SE GULF ARE RESULTING IN A RATHER
MESSY PRESSURE ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY...TUTT CELL CENTER WILL SLOWLY PUSH WEST/WSW FROM OFF THE
JACKSONVILLE COAST THIS MORNING TO A POSITION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX PATTERN WILL MAKE PUTTING SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAIL INTO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST DIFFICULT. LETS JUST
SAY THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH COLUMN MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...AND MORE TIED TO THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT OF THE APPROACHING
TUTT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...AIRMASS
CHANGE ROTATING AROUND THE TUTT WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS FILLING IN LATER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOIST COLUMN...WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER/STORMS COVERAGE
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...BUT WITH LESS VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND LESS
OVERALL LIGHTNING. OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THE APPROACH OF THE
TUTT CENTER WILL DELIVER MID-LEVEL CAA FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN
FACT...H5 TEMPS OF -9C TO -10C ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
THESE TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE FOR JULY...AND MAY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE JULY...BUT WE MAY
DEVELOP A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IF THESE PROGGED
TEMPERATURES/LAPSE RATES VERIFY.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY FADE...ALTHOUGH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
LOW AND A FAVORED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
OFFSHORE CONVECTION PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE COASTAL ZONES DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN MONDAY`S DISTURBED
PATTERN AND ONE FEATURING STACKED RIDGING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH ALLOWING
A MORE DEFINED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ASHORE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITHIN THE SW FLOW...HOWEVER AS THE SEA-BREEZE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND PUSHES INLAND...THE GREATER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO ALSO TRANSLATE INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...H5 HEIGHT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS WESTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH AN AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY FOR OUR AREA. SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE COAST...WITH MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY PUSHING INLAND BY THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE
GREATER SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WILL ALSO BE LOOKING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN CREEPING BACK UP. CURRENT GRIDS SHOWING A
RETURN TO MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES. 00Z GFS SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE MOISTURE IS SLOW
TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. BY LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATERS RETURN TO NEAR TWO
INCHES. MEX GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...MOST
LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. I WILL FOLLOW
GUIDANCE FOR NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAYS 6 AND 7...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP NEEDING TO RAISE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT ALL OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ONSHORE
NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH AN AXIS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.
THIS RIDGE POSITION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEARSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND THEN SWITCH ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER..
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  75  89  76 /  60  40  40  20
FMY  89  74  91  75 /  60  30  40  20
GIF  91  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
SRQ  88  76  89  76 /  60  40  40  20
BKV  90  71  91  71 /  60  40  50  30
SPG  88  77  89  78 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
AVIATION/LONG TERM...JILLSON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 548 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE HOT WEATHER TODAY
AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY/TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. AS
EXPECTED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN AND ADJACENT
NRN ONTARIO. IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET (50-60KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS) IS ALIGNED FROM
NCNTRL NEBRASKA TO NW MN AND IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE CONVECTION.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER S WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THE GFS SCENARIO TODAY.
THUS...EXPECT MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLIDE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET RIDING OVERTOP MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD RATHER STRONG FORCING. THAT SAID...AS IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE W...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MAINLY NRN UPPER MI AND THE KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR AS THE
AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. IF STRONGER
CONVECTION PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
MARINE LAYER COULD SET UP A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES S INTO
NRN UPPER MI. THAT COULD THEN BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE DAY.
WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF MLCAPE PER NAM (GFS IS OVERLY MOIST IN THE
LOW-LEVELS) AND 35-45KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD SVR WX IS
POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO OCCUR TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TODAY...MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW/MID 90S
TODAY PER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. THESE TEMPS
ARE INLINE WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM FROM IA TO THE DAKOTAS
YESTERDAY. IT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT HIGHER. RECORD HIGH OF 93 HERE AT THE
OFFICE MAY FALL. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS RIGHT TO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...WITH LOCAL EXCEPTIONS AROUND THE KEWEENAW.
HOWEVER...IF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PUSH
OUTFLOW/MARINE LAYER S...TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY END UP LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE LAKE. AS WAS THE CASE UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP DWPTS IN CHECK AND PREVENT
AGGRAVATING THE HEAT WITH HIGHER APPARENT TEMPS. LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM IDEA WITH DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE W HALF OR
SO OF UPPER MI. HIGHER DWPTS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT TEMPS THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
LWR THAN OVER THE W. AS MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD AND TAP INTO LOW-LEVEL
JET...SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OR SO FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HRS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE GREATEST.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT THEN
DROPPING S BEHIND IT. WHILE MANY MODELS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD
INDICATED A GOOD AMOUNT OF PCPN MIGHT FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FROPA...RECENT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FROPA WILL BE MAINLY DRY.
PART OF THE ISSUE MAY BE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE VEERED
WRLY WITH NOSE WELL OFF TO THE E...LIMITING IMPORTANT NIGHTTIME
FORCING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET HERE. IN ANY EVENT...PREVIOUS FCST
IDEA OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW. FOG WHICH
COVERED MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR YESTERDAY AND IS NOW PUSHING BACK TO
THE N UNDER DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW MAY SWEEP BACK S WITH FROPA
TONIGHT...OR FOG MAY REDEVELOP AS COOLER MARINE LAYER SINKS S AND
ENCOUNTERS HIGHER DWPTS TOWARD SHORE AND IN UPSLOPING INTO UPPER MI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE
500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS N QUEBEC...AS IT SLOWLY HEADS OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE JUST SE OF THE
CWA...STRETCHING FROM N QUEBEC...THROUGH N LAKE HURON...TO S
CENTRAL/SE SD. DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WITH BOOKEND LOWS OVER CANADA AND THE FAR N
U.S...THE 500MB RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

BOTH 15/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEVELOPED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BORDER THURSDAY. WILL ADJUST POPS
UP SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA...BUT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER
INSTEAD OF INCREASING POPS TO ANYTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE YET...AS
A RELATIVELY WEAK WAVE SLIDES IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

EXPECT MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR E FROM THURSDAY ON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TO MORE UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MI WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THE HEAT.

THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/ AND GFS ALL HAVE THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD...ATTEMPTING TO ROUND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA.
AS EXPECTED...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AT 100 PLUS HOURS VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 15/12Z CANADIAN WAS THE FASTEST...WITH THE 15/12Z
ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST /SLOWER THAN THE CANADIAN BY OVER 18 HOURS
BY SATURDAY/. AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFERENCES...WILL RUN CLOSER TO
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE N OF THE AREA.

HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH FOG/STRATUS OVER LK SUPERIOR AND IT/S
POSSIBLE EFFECT ON KCMX/KIWD. CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT
IT SHOULD NOT AFFECT KIWD DUE TO INCREASING SWRLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. KCMX
IS TRICKY. WITH WINDS BECOMING ERLY OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE THE
FOG/STRATUS OVER LK SUPERIOR MOVE IN AND QUICKLY BRING CIGS/VSBYS
DOWN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT IS A STRATUS DECK...BUT THE LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD HELP VSBYS GO DOWN. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO HIT THE LOW CLOUDS/VSBYS HARD...SO WILL MENTION MVFR VSBY AND
SCT003 FOR NOW. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING
OVERNIGHT THOUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW WITH THIS SITE

FINALLY...WINDS COULD GET QUITE GUSTY...TO 35KTS...OUT OF THE SSW IN
THE AFTERNOON AND PUT THIS INTO ALL TAFS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS.
BY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL COME DOWN AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

MAIN FCST ISSUE IS MARINE FOG. AS OPPOSED TO 24HRS AGO WHEN
SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDED A GOOD VIEW OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
LAKE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING THE FOG THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
ASSUME THAT WITH DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW THE FOG IS ADVECTING N ACROSS
THE LAKE WITH VIS IMPROVING FROM THE S. HAVE THUS OPTED TO LET DENSE
FOG ADVY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z. AS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE AT LEAST FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY IF MORE RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS LATE TONIGHT/TUE...EXPECT FOG TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE.

AS FOR WINDS...LOCALLY GUSTY S-SW WINDS OF 20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF SRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES. ALSO...A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 25KT OR SO MAY OCCUR
IN THE VCNTY OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER
20KT. WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING WED-FRI...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-
     245-263-264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 338 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE
PROVIDING WARM MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WEAK 500 MB
LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST WHILE A 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DOWN ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO CROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA. THIS UPPER ENERGY COUPLED WITH A THERMALLY-INDUCED
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. THE RAP INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BOTH THE GFS AND GEMS SHOW THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO
OF OUR CWA. WHILE EASTERN NC IS NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE ROUTE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 86 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE FOR TODAY.
POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...PER LATEST RUNS OF MOST ALL OF THE SHORT-
RANGE MODELS...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z. VERY SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT...RANGING FROM 73
TO 78 DEGREES WITH THE WARMER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SCT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE TUE/WED TIME PERIOD. A WET PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE TUE AND INTO WED...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...FOCUSED ALONG
TYPICAL HWY 17 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE AROUND
1425M...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 EACH
DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC REGIME LATE THIS COMING
WEEK...WITH AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...TRANSLATING TO
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS. TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN NC LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME LATE THUR/EARLY FRI. LATEST
16/00Z ECMWF INDICATES SFC COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS EASTERN NC
...WHICH WOULD BRING BOUTS OF THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INC POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...AS THIS SOLN HAS SUPPORT FROM
16/00Z GEM. OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP AXIS JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES IN CURRENT THINKING FOR AVIATION.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 3 TO 6 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP CHANGES OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PATCH OR
TWO OF FOG TOWARD MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED MON AFTN
BUT MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE SO NO TAF MENTION AS YET UNTIL
TIMING/COVERAGE CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
TUE-WED. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE THUR THROUGH FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GRADIENT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGH INLAND WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET
BUT WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL 5 FOOTERS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PER LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL SWAN MODEL
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 330 AM MON...INLAND TROF/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE TYPICAL SW FLOW OVER AREA DURING PERIOD. SW WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESP MIDWEEK INTO THUR AS GRADIENT INC JUST A BIT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE WITH 4 TO 5 FEET FOR THE OUTER
WATERS. COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS WATERS LATE WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS KEEPING A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 1242 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN STALL OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD PROVIDING A
LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S AREA-
WIDE. LATEST RAP HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SOUNDS
TOWARD MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE PRECIP OUT AT THIS TIME GIVEN
LACK OF FORCING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO
REMOVE SMALL POPS OFFSHORE...AS SKIES HAVE GONE CLEAR IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/PIEDMONT TROF PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AT SFC ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATE UPR SHRT WV WILL
MOVE IN FROM NW DURING AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS LIKELY
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIP WATER BACK TO AROUND 2
INCHES...LI`S -5 TO -7 AND CAPES NEAR 3500. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST
POPS OF 40 INLAND TO 20 COAST. LATEST MOS GDNC IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MAX TEMPS FROM LOWER 90S INLAND TO UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE IN RATHER CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING
BETTER THAN THE GFS IN ITS HANDLING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH
MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. CONVECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY SEABREEZE DRIVEN...DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. POPS
WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN POPS TO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES IN CURRENT THINKING. A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 3 TO 6 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP CHANGES OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS
MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PATCH OR TWO OF
FOG TOWARD MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED MON AFTN BUT
MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE SO NO TAF MENTION AS YET UNTIL
TIMING/COVERAGE CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL
BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LIMITED TO THE
MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND POSSIBLE BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE
AND A TROUGH INLAND. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST THINKING
WITH THESE SPEEDS CONTINUING OVER AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SWAN AND
WW3 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 2-5 FT.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS/NAM IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND USED AN OVERALL BLEND OF THE THREE
FOR THE MARINE WINDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND DROP IN THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN. USED THE 12Z WAVEWATCH
FOR SEAS...WHICH INCREASE TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS
SOUTH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC//BTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/BTC/HSA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 411 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND ALTHOUGH RUC/NAM/HRRR INSIST ON BREAKING OUT
SHOWERS ALONG A SWATH OF DECENT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION BASICALLY
CIRCLING THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IS
OVERTAKING ANY LIFT BEING GENERATED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS
LIKELY MEANS THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS. WITH THIS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS
DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE TN VALLEY...THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AROUND 18Z TODAY AS TEMPS
RISE. ALTHOUGH...NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF SO TEMPS MAY RISE
QUICKLY TODAY...RISING INTO THE 90S BY 17Z. LATEST HRRR BREAKS OUT
SCATTERED THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME. LOTS OF SBCAPE AND PRETTY GOOD
LAPSE RATES ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 18Z SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
WESTWARD AND MIX WITH THE DRIER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSITION OUR H5 FLOW TO NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. GFS NEVER LETS UP
THE DEEP MOISTURE HOWEVER NAM SEEMS TO PROGRESSIVELY DRY OUT THE
COLUMN WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE FOR THIS CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEAKER GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SINCE GFS IS SO AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS...DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S BY MID WEEK AND HEAT INDEXES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AT
THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE 3-4 DEGREES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NASHVILLE AND EAST. HOWEVER WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
COME CLOSE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION ON ANY ADVISORIES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A POSSIBILITY OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEING EJECTED FROM A SOUTHEASTERN MOVING H5 LOW FROM THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE BOTH SLOWED TO DELAY THIS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THE GFS PLOWS RIGHT THROUGH THE MID STATE WHILE ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. SINCE THIS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THE MODELS ATTM...WILL STICK WITH THE FAVORING OF THE ECMWF AND
LEAVE THE EXTENDED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      94  71  94  73 /  30  05  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    94  71  94  73 /  30  05  30  10
CROSSVILLE     89  67  89  69 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBIA       94  71  95  72 /  20  05  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   94  71  95  72 /  20  05  30  10
WAVERLY        94  71  95  73 /  30  05  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012/

SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WHAT LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS FALLING APART AND
THERE SHOULD BE NO MORE PRECIPITATION BY 10 PM. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012/

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST WHICH HAS PUSHED THE MOISTURE AXIS THAT CONTAINS
PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
MIDSOUTH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH INTO NW MS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF HAS SEVERELY
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF MEMPHIS FOR NOW. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THOUGH A FEW READINGS ABOVE 90
CAN BE FOUND ACROSS NE MS AND SE PARTS OF WEST TN.

TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH LESS COVERAGE TO THE EAST. SOME OF STORMS WILL
CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION IS MAINLY
SURFACE HEATING BASED SO ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS CONFIRMED NICELY BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
TEMPS WILL START TO HEAT UP INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE LOWER
70S WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THE MID LEVEL
CAPPING WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT OFF
CONVECTION...THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER AS PWAT VALUES
FALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING UP AS WELL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN
UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN GREAT LAKES SENDS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM. THE 12Z GFS LEANS TOWARD MORE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER/WETTER ECMWF AND THE
WARMER/DRIER GFS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

THINK FOG FORMATION MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR AVIATION AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON WITH CLOUD COVER HAVING DIMINISHED...LIGHT WINDS AND A WET
GROUND IN MOST LOCATIONS FROM RECENT RAINS. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
TAFS EARLIER SUNDAY EVENING TO BEEF UP MENTION OF FOG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOG GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS MVFR UNTIL ABOUT 16/17Z...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY HELPING
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TSRA WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THINK THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION TSRA IN ANY OF THE TAFS FOR MONDAY ATTM.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS MONDAY BECOMING S-SW 6-10 KTS DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 17/01Z.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
MKL  72  94  72  95 /  10  20  10  30
JBR  74  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20
TUP  74  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 1104 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rain and the
potential for localized flooding to portions eastern Washington
tonight. Upper level low pressure will remain over the Pacific
Northwest Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday bringing humid conditions
and the chance for thunderstorms. Drier weather should return to
the region Thursday or Friday through next weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main update was to adjust PoPs across the Palouse and eastern
Columbia Basin. Radar mosaic shows an area of showers and
thunderstorms moving north out of northeast Oregon. The RUC has the
best handle on these storms and indicates that this area will take
a turn to the northwest overnight. Continued easterly low level
flow will keep the threat of showers and a few thunderstorms going
over the western half of the forecast area through Monday evening.
The heaviest rainfall has diminished so all flood products have
been taken down or allowed to expire. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect eastern
WA overnight. The most favored area will be west of KLWS/KPUW. The
main hazard from these storms will be very heavy rainfall and
possibly small hail. These storms will move northwest, affecting
the KMWH/KEAT sites by 10Z. Another round of convection will
develop Monday afternoon. /EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  87  65  88  65  83 /  20  20  30  20  40  50
Coeur d`Alene  58  86  62  87  62  82 /  10  20  30  40  40  50
Pullman        56  84  62  85  60  81 /  30  20  40  40  50  40
Lewiston       65  92  68  94  68  90 /  20  20  30  30  30  40
Colville       57  88  61  89  62  86 /  10  20  20  40  40  50
Sandpoint      56  84  59  85  59  81 /  10  20  30  50  40  50
Kellogg        57  86  59  86  58  81 /  10  20  30  40  40  60
Moses Lake     59  88  65  94  65  88 /  30  30  30  20  20  40
Wenatchee      62  87  67  94  68  88 /  40  30  20  30  30  40
Omak           61  93  66  94  66  90 /  30  20  20  30  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1143 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ON THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  YESTERDAYS UPPER TROUGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WISCONSIN LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IN A REGION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.  DIURNAL CU HAS
POPPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND AREA RADARS HAVE
DETECTED A SOLE SPRINKLE THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE
PORTAGE/WAUPACA BORDER.  THE CU LOOKS RATHER FEISTY SO WILL ADD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS AND TEMPS INCLUDING HEAT HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS.  UPSTREAM
MID-DECK AND CIRRUS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL PICK UP LATE.  THESE CONDITIONS POINT TOWARDS
A WARMER NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

MONDAY...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRETTY DRY...SO THINKING THERE IS SLIM CHANCES
OF A COOLING THUNDERSTORM.  WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR
NORTHERN VILAS IN CASE A ROGUE STORM DECIDES TO MAKE A RUN TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTY.  OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TOMORROW.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB TEMPS IN THE
24-25C RANGE WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS NEAR 100F.  A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GOOD MIXING GREATER THAN 800MB...AND HELP TO
MIX OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.  BUT THE GOOD MIXING ALSO
SUPPORTS GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PLACES HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LOW TO MID 90S FARTHER NORTH.  SOME 100S WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN
THE HOT SPOTS AROUND WAUPACA AND WAUSHARA.  ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPS
IS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM...THOUGH ITS TOUGH TO
GAUGE HOW THICK IT WILL BE TOMORROW.  BECAUSE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
BE MIXING OUT...THINK HEAT INDICES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  NONETHELESS...NO POINT IN CANCELLING
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT AS POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE THERE AND IT WILL
BE VERY HOT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN POSITION/STRENGTH OF STRONG
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WITH SYSTEMS EJECTING OUT OF WESTERN TROF THROUGH
CANADA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START OUT WARM...THEN RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BEFORE HEATING UP AGAIN ON THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY WILL BE DEALING WITH COOL FRONT MOVING INTO/THROUGH CWA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER JET REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH...PULLS OUT TUE NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH
LIMITED. NAM STRONGER WITH SURFACE LOW...FASTER WITH FRONT
PASSING...AND SHOWS DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EC ON SLOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH SYSTEM AND FOR PAST TWO RUNS SUGGESTS MCS/S MAY MOVE ALONG
FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. NOT SEEING ANY SIG
FORCING FOR SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR SOME RELATIVELY WEAK WAA OVER
MN/SD. FEW TEMPS/HEAT INDICES REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TUE AFTN OVER
THE SOUTH...BUT WILL NOT EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY GIVEN CLOUD/PCPN
CONCERNS. CWA REMAINS ON EDGE OF SEE TEXT BY SPC FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT. SHEAR IS LIMITED...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WITH SOME TO THE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR WED-FRI PERIOD.

SPREAD SEEN IN ENSEMBLES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE
POSITION/STRENGTH...THOUGH MEANS SUGGEST GOING ON THE WARM
SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH JUST SOME MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. SUNNY AND HOT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

RDM
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ020-021-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 712 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ALL SHOWERS HAVE LEFT THE AREA. EXPECT PATCHY FOG...MAINLY MID CT
RIVER VALLEY AREA...TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH HRR AND
OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING POPCORN CONVECTION...CONCUR WITH
PRIOR FORECAST REASONING THAT RIDGING BEHIND SHORT WAVE TROF AND
UNIMPRESSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST AFTERNOON
CONVECTION UNLIKELY TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DOES NOT EVEN
SEEM TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE. PRIOR FORECAST OF TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK.

SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FORMED ALONG S COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LEFTOVER
INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND THEY WILL EXIT COAST BY 4 AM.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAK COLD FRONT
IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REACH COAST AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE RAPID CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON W/NW
WINDS.

ISSUE FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS ALL
WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS/STORMS TO VARIOUS DEGREES. 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS ACTIVITY ALONG SECONDARY FRONT BUT KEEPS MUCH OF IT TO
OUR N...00Z NAM FOCUSES DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT IN
EASTERN MA BUT BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY IN THIS EVENING FROM NW...AND
3KM HRRR DEVELOPS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR.

WHILE THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RIDGING ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS ALSO MEAGER
AS ARE LAPSE RATES. OUR THINKING IS COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT
BEST AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR E MA SEA BREEZE FRONT AS WELL AS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR /NEAR BERKSHIRES/ DUE TO APPROACH OF SECONDARY
FRONT. WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BUT HAVE HIGHER /10%/
VALUES IN THESE AREAS.

FORECAST HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS...RANGING FROM 80S ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS TO LOWER AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST
WHERE FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW.

QUESTION FOR TUE IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE RECORD WARMTH. CERTAINLY
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 100-DEGREE READINGS AWAY FROM S COAST AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SIGNIFICANTLY /AROUND +20C AT 850 MB/.
HOWEVER MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
MAY END UP BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...PUTTING A LID ON HEATING. THIS DIFFERENCE IS REFLECTED
IN WARMER NAM MOS WHICH HAS HIGHS AROUND 100 FOR MUCH OF AREA...WHILE
GFS MOS SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND HAS HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90.

GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WE WILL SPLIT DIFFERENCE BUT LEAN CLOSER
TO WARMER NAM MOS GIVEN SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM S COAST. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS
TO FALL INTO LOW TO MID 60S TUE AFTERNOON...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /100-104
DEGREES/.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...AFTER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON TUE...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

16/00Z GUIDANCE ARE TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE ARE
STILL QUESTIONABLE BASED ON THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS. DECIDED TO SLOW
THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
THINK MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY NORTH OF I-90.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR IT
TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN NH AROUND DAYBREAK WED...WITH A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN NW MA AND SOUTHERN NH LATE
TUE NIGHT. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE
OVER CT...RI...AND SE MA WHERE WE HAVE FORECAST 40-45 PERCENT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...A FRONT CAUSING FORCING...AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KT...A FEW COULD REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO WED NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
BUT SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE
NORTHWARD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. GREAT
SLEEPING WEATHER WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

THE COOLEST OF THE DAYS MAY BE ON FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +9C TO +10C ON BOTH ECMWF AND GFS. IF IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OVER CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS WELL AS MID CT RIVER VALLEY TO VFR 12Z-15Z. WINDS
NW THIS MORNING BUT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES LIKELY IN A LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT THAT SLACKENS DURING THE DAY.

LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTM AGAIN 18Z-22Z MAINLY IN
EASTERN MA NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VFR TONIGHT AND TUE...ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING INTO TUE MORNING AS FOG/LOW
CLOUDS REFORM WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO INITIATE 16Z-
18Z. ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM 18Z-22Z NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT NOT
ALL THAT LIKELY.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MIFR
VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...THEN VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY. A FEW TSTMS
MAY BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CT/RI/SE MA. CHANCE TSTMS CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. SW FLOW
15KT OR LESS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD SEAS ON S COASTAL
WATERS TO 3 OR 4 FT S OF ISLANDS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HIGH IN THIS PATTERN.

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ON
S COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

SEAS BUILD AGAIN WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LOW
RISK OF 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED
AND WED NIGHT.

SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AS A RESULT OF NE WINDS THU
AND FRI. THE NE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE JUL 17:

BOS...98 IN 1999 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
PVD...97 IN 1999 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
BDL...97 IN 1999
ORH...93 IN 1900

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/JWD/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/JWD
CLIMATE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1043 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK TODAY AND THE ONLY UPDATE THAT
WE MAY DO IS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEAST IL (SE OF I-70) THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BY LATE MORNING. NAM MODEL KEEPS IT
DRY OVER CENTRAL AND SE IL WHILE HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THINK THIS IS WAY
OVERDONE ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL IL WHERE ITS STILL SUNNY. SREF
MODELS HAS SOME QPF OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOT AND
HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS HEAT COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL GIVE HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100F AND HEAT INDICES PEAKING FROM 100-105F TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUES UNDER HOT AND HUMID
HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT...BUT ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS ALL THAT WOULD OCCUR. WE KEPT FOG OUT
OF THE TAFS AS IT HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC IN THIS AIRMASS SO FAR.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-12KT POSSIBLE.

ANY CUMULUS FORMATION TODAY SHOULD REMAIN SCT. EVEN IF A BRIEF
BROKEN DECK FORMS...IT WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS.

SHIMON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING EVIDENT WEST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850MB TEMPS BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS
WERE AT OR ABOVE 30C ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NEBRASKA...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HEART OF HOT AIRMASS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
20 TO 22C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...PRODUCING PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND 100. EVEN HOTTER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
TUESDAY...AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BOOSTS 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN 22 AND 24C. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE W/NW KILX CWA REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. DESPITE THE
INTENSE HEAT...DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPPER 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BY MID-WEEK...AS DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY. 00Z 16 JUL NAM/ECMWF HAVE BOTH CONTINUED THE WELL
ESTABLISHED SLOWING TREND...KEEPING FRONT TO THE NORTH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO KEEP
WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF
I-74...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN FURTHER S/SW. DUE TO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
HIGHER. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL REACH BEFORE STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH...TAKING THE FRONT S/SW OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
GIVEN DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...THIS
SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY. PREFER THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTION...WHICH STALLS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. WITH BOUNDARY PRESENT IN A HOT/HUMID
AIRMASS...THINK CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...WILL GO WITH A HOT AND DRY FORECAST NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S.

BARNES

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...
OTHER THAN BAND OF ISOLD CONVN FORMING ALG NRN EDGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MSTR PLUME THIS AFTN...ATTN FOCUSED ON SLW EWD PROGRESSION OF MCV
OVR NE IL EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGHING ANCHORED BY POTENT
SW SEEN IN VAPOR OVR NE MN. TAIL END OF IL MCV ACTIVELY CONVG
THROUGH E/NE IL ATTM WITHIN AXIS OF STG SFC BASED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. SHRT TERM RUC SOLUTIONS CARRY ORGANIZING
CLUSTER FM KMDW - S OF KIKK E/NEWD THROUGH NWRN CWA LT THIS
AFTN/EVE AND HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT INTO ITS SOLUTION...DROPPING
POP/WX MENTION AFT 03Z.

OTHERWISE NRN STREAM SW TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC TROUGH WILL BUCK EWD
THIS PD W/UNFVRBL TIMING SUN AFTN AND PER GENERAL WKNG OF UPR TROUGH
AND POORLY ALIGNED LL FLW SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...MEASURABLE
PCPN CHCS APPEAR SLIM AND FIT IN CONTEXT OF HIGHRES INDICATIONS OF
AT BEST ISOLD AFTN DVLPMNT OVR FAR ERN/SERN AREAS. THUS PER THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL BASED GUIDANCE WILL CHOP CONSIDERABLY AND
CONFINED TO SUN AFTN PD ALONE. TEMPS CONTD WELL ABV NORMAL THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY AS VORT FILAMENT CONTINUES TO GET ELONGATED AND WEAKEN FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN DIVORCED FROM MAIN WESTERLIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED BY A STRONGER PV ANOMALY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BC CANADA. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
EJECT EASTWARD FROM THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY...THROUGH THE BASE OF HUDSON BAY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A COOL FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONGER WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN LOW LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS
ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVECT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE COOL FRONT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE POSITIONING
ON TUESDAY SHOULD MAKE THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILDCARD WILL BE POTENTIAL OF SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. 12Z NAM
SUGGESTS MIXING UP TO ABOUT 725 HPA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE GFS IS
MOISTER AND MUCH MORE SHALLOW WITH MIXING. HAVE GENERALLY DISCOUNTED
GFS IDEA WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL BIAS AS OF LATE...WITH MORE WEIGHT TO
THE DEEPER MIXED NAM...ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION MAY BE TOO WELL MIXED.
THIS LARGELY SUPPORTS GOING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HAVE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED PREVIOUS FORECAST UPWARD...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUD ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT HEADLINES EVENTUALLY FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO LOW CHANCE TSRA POPS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...EXPANDING ACROSS REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ARE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR PROFILES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LIMITED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONGER UPPER FORCING TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS HEAT WILL RETURN AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LOCAL AREA COULD BE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS
BUILDING RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE MUCH TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ONGOING VERY DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKE FM 12Z CONTINUITY AND CARRIED BRIEF TEMPO TSRA GROUPING AT
BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTN CORRESPONDING W/NWD ADVTN OF SUB-TROPICAL
MSTR PLUME WHICH WAS SPRUNING A NWD ADVG LINE OF ISOLD-SCT CONVN
THIS AFTN. APPEARS THIS WILL LARGELY MISS KFWA YET MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN A LTR UPDATE AT KSBN. WILL CONT TO MONIOR NR TERM CONV
DVLPMNTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD W/SFC
WINDS BLO 10KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...T






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 742 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE HOT WEATHER TODAY
AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY/TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. AS
EXPECTED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN AND ADJACENT
NRN ONTARIO. IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET (50-60KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS) IS ALIGNED FROM
NCNTRL NEBRASKA TO NW MN AND IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE CONVECTION.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER S WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THE GFS SCENARIO TODAY.
THUS...EXPECT MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLIDE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET RIDING OVERTOP MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD RATHER STRONG FORCING. THAT SAID...AS IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE W...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MAINLY NRN UPPER MI AND THE KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR AS THE
AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. IF STRONGER
CONVECTION PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
MARINE LAYER COULD SET UP A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES S INTO
NRN UPPER MI. THAT COULD THEN BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE DAY.
WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF MLCAPE PER NAM (GFS IS OVERLY MOIST IN THE
LOW-LEVELS) AND 35-45KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD SVR WX IS
POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO OCCUR TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TODAY...MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW/MID 90S
TODAY PER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. THESE TEMPS
ARE INLINE WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM FROM IA TO THE DAKOTAS
YESTERDAY. IT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT HIGHER. RECORD HIGH OF 93 HERE AT THE
OFFICE MAY FALL. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS RIGHT TO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...WITH LOCAL EXCEPTIONS AROUND THE KEWEENAW.
HOWEVER...IF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PUSH
OUTFLOW/MARINE LAYER S...TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY END UP LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE LAKE. AS WAS THE CASE UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP DWPTS IN CHECK AND PREVENT
AGGRAVATING THE HEAT WITH HIGHER APPARENT TEMPS. LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM IDEA WITH DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE W HALF OR
SO OF UPPER MI. HIGHER DWPTS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT TEMPS THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
LWR THAN OVER THE W. AS MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD AND TAP INTO LOW-LEVEL
JET...SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OR SO FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HRS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE GREATEST.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT THEN
DROPPING S BEHIND IT. WHILE MANY MODELS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD
INDICATED A GOOD AMOUNT OF PCPN MIGHT FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FROPA...RECENT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FROPA WILL BE MAINLY DRY.
PART OF THE ISSUE MAY BE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE VEERED
WRLY WITH NOSE WELL OFF TO THE E...LIMITING IMPORTANT NIGHTTIME
FORCING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET HERE. IN ANY EVENT...PREVIOUS FCST
IDEA OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW. FOG WHICH
COVERED MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR YESTERDAY AND IS NOW PUSHING BACK TO
THE N UNDER DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW MAY SWEEP BACK S WITH FROPA
TONIGHT...OR FOG MAY REDEVELOP AS COOLER MARINE LAYER SINKS S AND
ENCOUNTERS HIGHER DWPTS TOWARD SHORE AND IN UPSLOPING INTO UPPER MI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE
500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS N QUEBEC...AS IT SLOWLY HEADS OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE JUST SE OF THE
CWA...STRETCHING FROM N QUEBEC...THROUGH N LAKE HURON...TO S
CENTRAL/SE SD. DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WITH BOOKEND LOWS OVER CANADA AND THE FAR N
U.S...THE 500MB RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

BOTH 15/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEVELOPED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BORDER THURSDAY. WILL ADJUST POPS
UP SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA...BUT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER
INSTEAD OF INCREASING POPS TO ANYTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE YET...AS
A RELATIVELY WEAK WAVE SLIDES IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

EXPECT MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR E FROM THURSDAY ON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TO MORE UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MI WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THE HEAT.

THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/ AND GFS ALL HAVE THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD...ATTEMPTING TO ROUND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA.
AS EXPECTED...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AT 100 PLUS HOURS VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 15/12Z CANADIAN WAS THE FASTEST...WITH THE 15/12Z
ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST /SLOWER THAN THE CANADIAN BY OVER 18 HOURS
BY SATURDAY/. AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFERENCES...WILL RUN CLOSER TO
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS SETTLED INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS WITH A RETURN TO VFR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE W IN MN. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT SHIFTS
E...BUT RIGHT NOW TRENDS/LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
VCNTY SHRA MENTION IS WARRANTED FOR THIS MORNING AT KCMX. PCPN
SHOULD STAY N OF KIWD/KSAW WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE. AS
LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUILDING MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL TAP STRONGER WINDS LEADING TO S TO SW WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT...
PARTICULARLY AT KIWD/KSAW. COLD FRONT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SINCE FOG HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND SHIFT
TO THE N SHOULD BRING IFR/POTENTIAL LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES
AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PCPN ACCOMPANYING
FRONT...SO PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

MAIN FCST ISSUE IS MARINE FOG. AS OPPOSED TO 24HRS AGO WHEN
SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDED A GOOD VIEW OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
LAKE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING THE FOG THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
ASSUME THAT WITH DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW THE FOG IS ADVECTING N ACROSS
THE LAKE WITH VIS IMPROVING FROM THE S. HAVE THUS OPTED TO LET DENSE
FOG ADVY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z. AS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE AT LEAST FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY IF MORE RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS LATE TONIGHT/TUE...EXPECT FOG TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE.

AS FOR WINDS...LOCALLY GUSTY S-SW WINDS OF 20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF SRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES. ALSO...A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 25KT OR SO MAY OCCUR
IN THE VCNTY OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER
20KT. WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING WED-FRI...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 646 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
IS GENERALLY CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO CROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS UPPER ENERGY COUPLED WITH A
THERMALLY- INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY. THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE CAPE
VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BOTH
THE GFS AND GEMS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OUR CWA. WHILE EASTERN NC IS NOT
OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE ROUTE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 86 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE FOR TODAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...PER LATEST RUNS OF MOST ALL OF THE SHORT-
RANGE MODELS...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z. VERY SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT...RANGING FROM 73
TO 78 DEGREES WITH THE WARMER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SCT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE TUE/WED TIME PERIOD. A WET PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE TUE AND INTO WED...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...FOCUSED ALONG
TYPICAL HWY 17 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE AROUND
1425M...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 EACH
DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC REGIME LATE THIS COMING
WEEK...WITH AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...TRANSLATING TO
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS. TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN NC LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME LATE THUR/EARLY FRI. LATEST
16/00Z ECMWF INDICATES SFC COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS EASTERN NC
     WHICH WOULD BRING BOUTS OF THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INC POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...AS THIS SOLN HAS SUPPORT FROM
16/00Z GEM. OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP AXIS JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN THE FORM
OF SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 3 TO 5 KNOTS WILL KEEP ANY EARLY MORNING FOG
FROM DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED MON AFTN OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA AND WILL ADD A VCTS AT THE
PGV TAF.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
TUE-WED. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE THUR THROUGH FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...CONTINUING TO SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THIS
PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH HOLDS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 4 FEET
TODAY WITH A FEW 5 FOOT SEAS LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 330 AM MON...INLAND TROF/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE TYPICAL SW FLOW OVER AREA DURING PERIOD. SW WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESP MIDWEEK INTO THUR AS GRADIENT INC JUST A BIT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE WITH 4 TO 5 FEET FOR THE OUTER
WATERS. COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS WATERS LATE WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS KEEPING A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1114 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING DRY...BUT CONTINUED VERY WARM CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER...AND
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF UNDER THE STRONG MID
SUMMER SUN. AS WARMER AIR SURGES IN ALOFT...EXPECT CONTINUED
STABILIZATION. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR ALL
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO POP OVER ERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUT NEW NAM AND 09Z SREF SHOW NO RAIN AFTER 18Z SO WILL
KEEP THE DRY LESS THAN 20% POP FORECAST WE HAVE AT THIS TIME.

M/CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME INC IN
CLOUDS PSBL OVR THE NRN TIER MTNS TWD DAYBREAK AS LOW PRES TRACKS
EWD FM THE UPPER GRT LKS ACRS SRN ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH...A BULLS-EYE OF PLUS 2-3 ST
DEVIATION 850 MB TEMPS / AROUND 22C/...AND A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
WESTERLY 925-850 MB DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PEAK
OF THE UPCOMING MINI HEAT WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A HEAT ADVISORY /FOR TUESDAY FROM 16-23Z/ WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS LWX AND PHI. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 90S IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE IN THE 95-97F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK AT 100-102F. EVEN ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 87-90F.

AN EAST/WEST RIBBON OF WARM 700MB TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD CAP OFF
PRACTICALLY ALL CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
SW AND FAR NRN MTNS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH
COULD COMBINE WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND YIELD A
FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEAT OF THE WEATHER ACTION IN THE FORM OF HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND
AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH A BELT OF MDTLY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-35KTS AT 700 MB WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF DEEPER/COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WITH LLVL
WINDS VEERING ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NNE BY LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY.

THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE STANDS THE BEST CHC TO SEE A SHOWER
/OR AFTERNOON TSRA/ THURSDAY AS THE NRN EDGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR /IN
THE 44-48MM RANGE/ WILL STAY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE.

FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY PWAT AIR /IN THE 16-20MM RANGE/ SINKS SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL SUPPLY US WITH LITTLE
OR NOR CHC FOR RAIN DURING THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY /RANGING FROM THE U70S NW...TO 92-94F SE/ WILL
BE A GOOD 4-6 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AFTERNOON HOURS...ROBBING SEVERAL HOURS
OF HEATING.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN GRADUALLY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY /BACK TO AROUND NORMAL/. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHILLY...WITH A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
KBFD SEEING A 48 OR 49F DAYBREAK TEMP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY PER THE 00Z GEFS AND EC MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING BY MID
DAY. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVR ERN SXNS...BUT POINT-
PROBABILITIES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 20 PCT AT BEST...AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.

HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK TUES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WX
WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERS SCT
STG-SVR TSTMS. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
THU-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 538 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING DRY...BUT VERY WARM CONDITIONS. HOT AIR WILL SURGE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND THE 100 DEG MARK
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN PA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT  WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE AND USHERS IN A COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACRS NRN CAMBRIA COUNTY CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD
EARLY THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH
IR CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO AROUND -60C. RECENT RADAR AND IR SATL
TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. THESE
STORMS...APPEAR TO BE ASSOCD WITH MINI S/W MCV-LIKE FEATURE ON SRN
END OF UPPER TROF/H5 VORT AXIS. PBZ RELAYED REPORT OF 1.5" OF HVY
RNFL IN 45 MINUTES AS THE STORMS WENT THRU PUNXY...BUT NO HAIL OR
WIND DESPITE DECENT BASE VELOCITIES 35-40KTS AND ELEVATED
REFLECTIVITY CORE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. STORM IS LKLY
ELEVATED DUE TO DIURNALLY COOLED AND VERY MOIST/STABLE BLYR. MESO
MDLS HAVE NOT DONE WELL WITH THE CURRENT TSTM CLUSTER...AND THE
LATEST HRRR WEAKENS THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SWD INTO THE S-CENTRAL
MTNS BTWN 09-12Z. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA OF TSTMS...LOW CIGS/STRATUS
AND FOG ARE THE OTHER ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE EWD FM THE UPPER OH VLY INTO WRN PA BY EARLY
THIS AFTN AND KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER OVR THE ERN 1/3RD OF THE
CWA...CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM THIS AFTN NEAR LEE TROF AXIS BUT
OVERALL PROB IS BLW 20 PCT. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PWATS WILL BE
CENTERED OVR PA AT 17/00Z BEFORE INC AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS PATTERN
STARTS TO LOOK MORE LIKE RING OF FIRE. M/CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME INC IN CLOUDS PSBL OVR THE NW MTNS TWD
DAYBREAK AS WARM FNT PUSHES E/SEWD FM THE LWR GRT LKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH...A BULLSEYE OF PLUS 2-3 ST
DEVIATION 850 MB TEMPS / AROUND 22C/...AND A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
WESTERLY 925-850 MB DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PEAK
OF THE UPCOMING MINI HEAT WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A HEAT ADVISORY /FOR TUESDAY FROM 16-23Z/ WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS LWX AND PHI. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 90S IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE IN THE 95-97F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK AT 100-102F. EVEN ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 87-90F.

AN EAST/WEST RIBBON OF WARM 700MB TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD CAP OFF
PRACTICALLY ALL CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
SW AND FAR NRN MTNS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH
COULD COMBINE WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND YIELD A
FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEAT OF THE WEATHER ACTION IN THE FORM OF HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND
AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH A BELT OF MDTLY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-35KTS AT 700 MB WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF DEEPER/COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WITH LLVL
WINDS VEERING ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NNE BY LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY.

THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE STANDS THE BEST CHC TO SEE A SHOWER
/OR AFTERNOON TSRA/ THURSDAY AS THE NRN EDGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR /IN
THE 44-48MM RANGE/ WILL STAY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE.

FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY PWAT AIR /IN THE 16-20MM RANGE/ SINKS SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL SUPPLY US WITH LITTLE
OR NOR CHC FOR RAIN DURING THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY /RANGING FROM THE U70S NW...TO 92-94F SE/ WILL
BE A GOOD 4-6 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AFTERNOON HOURS...ROBBING SEVERAL HOURS
OF HEATING.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN GRADUALLY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY /BACK TO AROUND NORMAL/. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHILLY...WITH A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
KBFD SEEING A 48 OR 49F DAYBREAK TEMP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY PER THE 00Z GEFS AND EC MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS /MVFR OF LIFR CONDS/ WILL GIVE WAY
TO VFR FLYING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IS POSSIBLE OVR ERN SXNS...BUT POINT-PROBABILITIES ARE 20 PCT AT
BEST AND THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. HIGH PRES WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
TWD DAYBREAK TUES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WX WILL COME
ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERS SCT STG TO
POSSIBLY SVR SHRA/TSRA. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
THU-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 459 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING DRY...BUT VERY WARM CONDITIONS. HOT AIR WILL SURGE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND THE 100 DEG MARK
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN PA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT  WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE AND USHERS IN A COOLER...AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACRS NRN CAMBRIA COUNTY CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD
EARLY THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH
IR CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO AROUND -60C. RECENT RADAR AND IR SATL
TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. THESE
STORMS...APPEAR TO BE ASSOCD WITH MINI S/W MCV-LIKE FEATURE ON SRN
END OF UPPER TROF/H5 VORT AXIS. PBZ RELAYED REPORT OF 1.5" OF HVY
RNFL IN 45 MINUTES AS THE STORMS WENT THRU PUNXY...BUT NO HAIL OR
WIND DESPITE DECENT BASE VELOCITIES 35-40KTS AND ELEVATED
REFLECTIVITY CORE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. STORM IS LKLY
ELEVATED DUE TO DIURNALLY COOLED AND VERY MOIST/STABLE BLYR. MESO
MDLS HAVE NOT DONE WELL WITH THE CURRENT TSTM CLUSTER...AND THE
LATEST HRRR WEAKENS THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SWD INTO THE S-CENTRAL
MTNS BTWN 09-12Z. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA OF TSTMS...LOW CIGS/STRATUS
AND FOG ARE THE OTHER ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE EWD FM THE UPPER OH VLY INTO WRN PA BY EARLY
THIS AFTN AND KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER OVR THE ERN 1/3RD OF THE
CWA...CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM THIS AFTN NEAR LEE TROF AXIS BUT
OVERALL PROB IS BLW 20 PCT. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PWATS WILL BE
CENTERED OVR PA AT 17/00Z BEFORE INC AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS PATTERN
STARTS TO LOOK MORE LIKE RING OF FIRE. M/CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME INC IN CLOUDS PSBL OVR THE NW MTNS TWD
DAYBREAK AS WARM FNT PUSHES E/SEWD FM THE LWR GRT LKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH...A BULLSEYE OF PLUS 2-3 ST
DEVIATION 850 MB TEMPS / AROUND 22C/...AND A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
WESTERLY 925-850 MB DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PEAK
OF THE UPCOMING MINI HEAT WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A HEAT ADVISORY /FOR TUESDAY FROM 16-23Z/ WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS LWX AND PHI. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 90S IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE IN THE 95-97F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK AT 100-102F. EVEN ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 87-90F.

AN EAST/WEST RIBBON OF WARM 700MB TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD CAP OFF
PRACTICALLY ALL CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
SW AND FAR NRN MTNS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH
COULD COMBINE WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND YIELD A
FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEAT OF THE WEATHER ACTION IN THE FORM OF HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND
AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH A BELT OF MDTLY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-35KTS AT 700 MB WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF DEEPER/COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WITH LLVL
WINDS VEERING ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NNE BY LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY.

THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE STANDS THE BEST CHC TO SEE A SHOWER
/OR AFTERNOON TSRA/ THURSDAY AS THE NRN EDGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR /IN
THE 44-48MM RANGE/ WILL STAY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE.

FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY PWAT AIR /IN THE 16-20MM RANGE/ SINKS SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL SUPPLY US WITH LITTLE
OR NOR CHC FOR RAIN DURING THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY /RANGING FROM THE U70S NW...TO 92-94F SE/ WILL
BE A GOOD 4-6 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AFTERNOON HOURS...ROBBING SEVERAL HOURS
OF HEATING.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN GRADUALLY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY /BACK TO AROUND NORMAL/. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHILLY...WITH A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
KBFD SEEING A 48 OR 49F DAYBREAK TEMP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY PER THE 00Z GEFS AND EC MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REDUCED VSBYS IN PATCHY 2-3SM IS  POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY...AND
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGHLANDS /JST AND BFD/ AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY AND
UPSLOPE.

THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AFTER ANY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. AN ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WX WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERS SCT SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR.
WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
THU-FRI...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 913 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH SHORT TERM MODEL SHOWING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AFTER CONVECTIVE TEMP HAS BEEN REACHED. ON THE 12Z MON KOHX
SOUNDING IT IS LISTED AT 88 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE
REACHED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCATIONS BY THE NOON TIME HR.
CURRENT TEMPS IN LINE WITH FORECASTED HIGH VALUES AND THUS MADE NO
CHANGES IN THESE AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/

AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FG AT KCKV SHALL BEGIN TO LET UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LIKELY BY 17Z. HEAVY RAIN MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TERMINALS IF IMPACTED BY STORMS. BY 00Z VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS. BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KCSV AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND ALTHOUGH RUC/NAM/HRRR INSIST ON BREAKING OUT
SHOWERS ALONG A SWATH OF DECENT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION BASICALLY
CIRCLING THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IS
OVERTAKING ANY LIFT BEING GENERATED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS
LIKELY MEANS THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS. WITH THIS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS
DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE TN VALLEY...THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AROUND 18Z TODAY AS TEMPS
RISE. ALTHOUGH...NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF SO TEMPS MAY RISE
QUICKLY TODAY...RISING INTO THE 90S BY 17Z. LATEST HRRR BREAKS OUT
SCATTERED THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME. LOTS OF SBCAPE AND PRETTY GOOD
LAPSE RATES ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 18Z SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
WESTWARD AND MIX WITH THE DRIER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSITION OUR H5 FLOW TO NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. GFS NEVER LETS UP
THE DEEP MOISTURE HOWEVER NAM SEEMS TO PROGRESSIVELY DRY OUT THE
COLUMN WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE FOR THIS CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEAKER GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SINCE GFS IS SO AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS...DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S BY MID WEEK AND HEAT INDEXES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AT
THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE 3-4 DEGREES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NASHVILLE AND EAST. HOWEVER WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
COME CLOSE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION ON ANY ADVISORIES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A POSSIBILITY OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEING EJECTED FROM A SOUTHEASTERN MOVING H5 LOW FROM THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE BOTH SLOWED TO DELAY THIS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THE GFS PLOWS RIGHT THROUGH THE MID STATE WHILE ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. SINCE THIS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THE MODELS ATTM...WILL STICK WITH THE FAVORING OF THE ECMWF AND
LEAVE THE EXTENDED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 606 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012


.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FG AT KCKV SHALL BEGIN TO LET UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LIKELY BY 17Z. HEAVY RAIN MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TERMINALS IF IMPACTED BY STORMS. BY 00Z VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS. BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KCSV AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND ALTHOUGH RUC/NAM/HRRR INSIST ON BREAKING OUT
SHOWERS ALONG A SWATH OF DECENT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION BASICALLY
CIRCLING THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IS
OVERTAKING ANY LIFT BEING GENERATED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS
LIKELY MEANS THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS. WITH THIS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS
DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE TN VALLEY...THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AROUND 18Z TODAY AS TEMPS
RISE. ALTHOUGH...NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF SO TEMPS MAY RISE
QUICKLY TODAY...RISING INTO THE 90S BY 17Z. LATEST HRRR BREAKS OUT
SCATTERED THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME. LOTS OF SBCAPE AND PRETTY GOOD
LAPSE RATES ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 18Z SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
WESTWARD AND MIX WITH THE DRIER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSITION OUR H5 FLOW TO NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. GFS NEVER LETS UP
THE DEEP MOISTURE HOWEVER NAM SEEMS TO PROGRESSIVELY DRY OUT THE
COLUMN WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE FOR THIS CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEAKER GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SINCE GFS IS SO AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS...DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S BY MID WEEK AND HEAT INDEXES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AT
THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE 3-4 DEGREES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NASHVILLE AND EAST. HOWEVER WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
COME CLOSE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION ON ANY ADVISORIES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A POSSIBILITY OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEING EJECTED FROM A SOUTHEASTERN MOVING H5 LOW FROM THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE BOTH SLOWED TO DELAY THIS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THE GFS PLOWS RIGHT THROUGH THE MID STATE WHILE ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. SINCE THIS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THE MODELS ATTM...WILL STICK WITH THE FAVORING OF THE ECMWF AND
LEAVE THE EXTENDED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 418 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...NOT CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON/S BAY TO END THE WEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER...MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
NOT NOTED ANY THUNDER YET. HI RES RUC LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PERSISTENT SHRA AND TSRA. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING...THEN MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.

MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. TOWARD SUNRISE
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. BETTER PRECIP WILL BE ALIGNED WITH LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PUSHES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD A WARM
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 20C
OR HIGHER ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL BEGIN A
SLOW SAG INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SPC HAS NORTHERN
TIER OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. NAM IS PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS HAMILTON/HERKIMER COUNTIES. SHEAR IS 30-40
KNOTS...SO AMPLE DYNAMICS AVAILABLE TO FUEL SOME SEVERE STORMS.
GFS SOMEWHAT LESS EXCITED ABOVE INSTABILITY. NAM SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO HIGH. EVEN
SO...COMBINATION OF MODERATE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS NEEDS TO
BE RESPECTED. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO NEAR
TWO INCHES TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...COULD DELIVER A
GOOD SOAKING...ALTHOUGH STEERING WINDS ARE RESPECTABLE...SO STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG. WITH THESE IDEAS IN MIND...HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HERKIMER...HAMILTON...WARREN COUNTY...AND WILL INCLUDE IN HWO. AS FAR
AS TEMPS GO TOMORROW...MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT ISSUED
ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 60S EVEN
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...COULD STILL SEE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. BY WEDNESDAY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM IS AGGRESSIVE IN PAINTING A SWATH OF HIGH CAPE
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL HERE AGAIN FOR SEVERE STORMS AS 0-6
KM WILL BE RESPECTABLE 30-40 KNOTS...COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY. SPC DAY 3 HAS THIS AREA IN /SEE TEXT/ WITH 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. NO ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BE MENTIONED IN HWO. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
FRONT/CLOUDS/PRECIP ANOTHER HOT DAY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FORECAST HEAT INDICES REACH TO NEAR 100
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO
TOO.

FRONT WILL CLEAR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWFA.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE AS 850MB
TEMPS SETTLE BACK TO AOA +10C/+12C INTO THE WEEKEND.  SURFACE
PRESSURES BUILD TO AT LEAST 1020MB WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AND A MOCLR SKY AT NIGHT.  MOS/HPC MODEL BLEND
GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS IMPLEMENTED FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ADVANCES EAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS
WILL INCREASE OUR THERMAL PROFILES AS RETURN TO INCREASING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. KGFL HAD A
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AND ONLY RECORDED A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT
RAIN SHOWERS/TSRA OUT OF TAFS FOR TODAY. LOW PROBABILITY THAT ANY
TAF SITE WILL SEE EVEN MVFR FROM A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT A
SHOWER/TSRA IS POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SOME FOG TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER MAY MODULATE HOW WIDESPREAD
AND HOW DENSE. THICK CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING AS IT PREVENTS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND...SO TAF SITES THAT
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WILL SEE FOG. FOR NOW FORECAST GENERALLY 2-4
MILES VISBY WITH FOG LATER TONIGHT EARLY MORNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8-12 KTS BY MIDDAY AND THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE
COULD BRING ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN TO MANY AREAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...RECOVERING TO THE MODERATE LEVELS
OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
SO...THE THREAT OF SOME URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...OKEEFE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1255 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK TODAY AND THE ONLY UPDATE THAT
WE MAY DO IS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEAST IL (SE OF I-70) THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BY LATE MORNING. NAM MODEL KEEPS IT
DRY OVER CENTRAL AND SE IL WHILE HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THINK THIS IS WAY
OVERDONE ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL IL WHERE ITS STILL SUNNY. SREF
MODELS HAS SOME QPF OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOT AND
HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS HEAT COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL GIVE HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100F AND HEAT INDICES PEAKING FROM 100-105F TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
OF 4-6K FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (AS LOW WAS 3K FT AT BMI EARLY
AFTERNOON) TO DISSIPATE AT SUNSET (01-02Z). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY SE OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF
SITES WITH POPS LESS THAN 20% OVER CENTRAL IL. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS 3-5K FT TO REDEVELOP AFTER 15Z/10 AM TUE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
IN HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO LIGHTEN UP A FEW KNOTS BY
SUNSET AND THEN BACK TO NEAR 10 KTS BY 15Z/10 AM TUE MORNING. IL
WILL STAY SANDWICHED IN TROPICAL AIR MASS BETWEEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1019 MB OVER THE TN VALLEY...WHILE 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MN/CANADA BORDER WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE IS A 1005 MB
LOW PRESSURE.

KH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING EVIDENT WEST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850MB TEMPS BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS
WERE AT OR ABOVE 30C ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NEBRASKA...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HEART OF HOT AIRMASS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
20 TO 22C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...PRODUCING PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND 100. EVEN HOTTER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
TUESDAY...AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BOOSTS 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN 22 AND 24C. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE W/NW KILX CWA REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. DESPITE THE
INTENSE HEAT...DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPPER 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BY MID-WEEK...AS DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY. 00Z 16 JUL NAM/ECMWF HAVE BOTH CONTINUED THE WELL
ESTABLISHED SLOWING TREND...KEEPING FRONT TO THE NORTH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO KEEP
WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF
I-74...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN FURTHER S/SW. DUE TO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
HIGHER. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL REACH BEFORE STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH...TAKING THE FRONT S/SW OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
GIVEN DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...THIS
SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY. PREFER THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTION...WHICH STALLS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. WITH BOUNDARY PRESENT IN A HOT/HUMID
AIRMASS...THINK CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...WILL GO WITH A HOT AND DRY FORECAST NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S.

BARNES


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 342 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES FULLY THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OUT OF
CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO CAPTURE CONVECTION DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. MCS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND HEAD RAPIDLY EAST TOWARDS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL SPILL ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE LAYER AND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A BLAST OF VERY WARM AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH SOUTHERN ZONES
PEAKING OUT AT OR ABOVE +20C AT 850MB. THIS WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER
90S TO SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. WITH CURRENT DEW POINTS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE MID 60S IN THIS LOCATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECT
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. CURRENT GRIDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL NOT BE ISSUING HEAT
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECT TO ROLL OUT OF
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS US IN
SLIGHT RISK. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASING...EXPECT POSSIBLE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
ADDED THIS ENHANCED WORDING TO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TRICK WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE
WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES IF CONDITIONS
LINE UP JUST RIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE
THE KEY TO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY NOT TO BITE ON ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT IT BEARS WATCHING AS THIS WILL BE A
POTENT FRONT WITH A LOT OF HEATING OUT AHEAD OF IT.

BEYOND LINGERING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT CLEARS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS A COOL UPPER TROUGH CARVES
OUT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE AS WILL
THE HUMIDITY INTO MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BY
TUESDAY. A MIX OF THE HPC AND GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS IN QUICK PASSING SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS RELAX EVEN
FURTHER LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KIMBLE
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...ST JEAN
AVIATION...CANNON/ST JEAN
MARINE...KIMBLE/ST JEAN









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 132 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE LATEST GRID PACKAGE. HAVE UPPED POPS AS
BRIEF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
EMBEDDED IN A WEAK NW FLOW. LATEST HRRR MDL RUN APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION.

TEMPS WILL CONT TO CLIMB THRU THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER INLAND
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SRN NH WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES PER LATEST OBS.

PREV DISC...
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WIND
DOWN THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT THROUGH MID MORNING WITH HAZY SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
FOR HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH A DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH AND THESE WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CD FNT MOVES THRU TUESDAY NGT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHRA AND
TSTM ACTIVITY. BEST CHC ACROSS N/MT ZONES. FNT MOVES OUT TO SEA
WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LOWER TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY MOVING IN. SHOULD STILL BE A WRM DAY...BUT NOT
EXCESSIVELY HOT WITH THE DROP IN HUMIDITY MORE NOTICEABLE...THOUGH
THIS MAY TAKE AWHILE OVER MORE SRN/COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA WEDNESDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT
BRINGING MORE PLEASANT SUMMER WX WITH NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME
TEMPS AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A BROAD DISORGANIZED UPR LVL
TROF MOVING THRU FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME
INSTABILITY CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH AN ISOLD
-SHRA MAY BE PSBL.

UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR SE
ALLOWING A SURGE OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE IN ON W SW
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VERY WRM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST USED
GMOS...EXCEPT USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
AND MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF TDA...EXCEPT LCLY MVFR IN
ANY BRIEF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A CD FNT MOVES THRU
TUESDAY NGT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR TO
PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 136 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE HOT WEATHER TODAY
AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY/TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. AS
EXPECTED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN AND ADJACENT
NRN ONTARIO. IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET (50-60KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS) IS ALIGNED FROM
NCNTRL NEBRASKA TO NW MN AND IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE CONVECTION.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER S WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THE GFS SCENARIO TODAY.
THUS...EXPECT MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO SLIDE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET RIDING OVERTOP MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD RATHER STRONG FORCING. THAT SAID...AS IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE W...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MAINLY NRN UPPER MI AND THE KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR AS THE
AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. IF STRONGER
CONVECTION PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
MARINE LAYER COULD SET UP A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES S INTO
NRN UPPER MI. THAT COULD THEN BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE DAY.
WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF MLCAPE PER NAM (GFS IS OVERLY MOIST IN THE
LOW-LEVELS) AND 35-45KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD SVR WX IS
POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO OCCUR TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TODAY...MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW/MID 90S
TODAY PER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. THESE TEMPS
ARE INLINE WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM FROM IA TO THE DAKOTAS
YESTERDAY. IT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT HIGHER. RECORD HIGH OF 93 HERE AT THE
OFFICE MAY FALL. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS RIGHT TO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...WITH LOCAL EXCEPTIONS AROUND THE KEWEENAW.
HOWEVER...IF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PUSH
OUTFLOW/MARINE LAYER S...TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY END UP LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE LAKE. AS WAS THE CASE UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP DWPTS IN CHECK AND PREVENT
AGGRAVATING THE HEAT WITH HIGHER APPARENT TEMPS. LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM IDEA WITH DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE W HALF OR
SO OF UPPER MI. HIGHER DWPTS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT TEMPS THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
LWR THAN OVER THE W. AS MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD AND TAP INTO LOW-LEVEL
JET...SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OR SO FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HRS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE GREATEST.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT THEN
DROPPING S BEHIND IT. WHILE MANY MODELS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD
INDICATED A GOOD AMOUNT OF PCPN MIGHT FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FROPA...RECENT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FROPA WILL BE MAINLY DRY.
PART OF THE ISSUE MAY BE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE VEERED
WRLY WITH NOSE WELL OFF TO THE E...LIMITING IMPORTANT NIGHTTIME
FORCING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET HERE. IN ANY EVENT...PREVIOUS FCST
IDEA OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW. FOG WHICH
COVERED MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR YESTERDAY AND IS NOW PUSHING BACK TO
THE N UNDER DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW MAY SWEEP BACK S WITH FROPA
TONIGHT...OR FOG MAY REDEVELOP AS COOLER MARINE LAYER SINKS S AND
ENCOUNTERS HIGHER DWPTS TOWARD SHORE AND IN UPSLOPING INTO UPPER MI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE
500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS N QUEBEC...AS IT SLOWLY HEADS OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE JUST SE OF THE
CWA...STRETCHING FROM N QUEBEC...THROUGH N LAKE HURON...TO S
CENTRAL/SE SD. DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WITH BOOKEND LOWS OVER CANADA AND THE FAR N
U.S...THE 500MB RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

BOTH 15/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEVELOPED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BORDER THURSDAY. WILL ADJUST POPS
UP SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA...BUT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER
INSTEAD OF INCREASING POPS TO ANYTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE YET...AS
A RELATIVELY WEAK WAVE SLIDES IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

EXPECT MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR E FROM THURSDAY ON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TO MORE UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MI WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THE HEAT.

THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/ AND GFS ALL HAVE THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD...ATTEMPTING TO ROUND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA.
AS EXPECTED...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AT 100 PLUS HOURS VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 15/12Z CANADIAN WAS THE FASTEST...WITH THE 15/12Z
ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST /SLOWER THAN THE CANADIAN BY OVER 18 HOURS
BY SATURDAY/. AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFERENCES...WILL RUN CLOSER TO
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUILDING MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL TAP STRONGER WINDS LEADING TO S TO SW WINDS GUSTING
20-30KT... PARTICULARLY AT KIWD/KSAW. COLD FRONT WILL DROP S ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE FOG HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WIND SHIFT TO THE N SHOULD BRING IFR/POTENTIAL LIFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY PCPN ACCOMPANYING FRONT...SO PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

MAIN FCST ISSUE IS MARINE FOG. AS OPPOSED TO 24HRS AGO WHEN
SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDED A GOOD VIEW OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
LAKE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING THE FOG THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
ASSUME THAT WITH DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW THE FOG IS ADVECTING N ACROSS
THE LAKE WITH VIS IMPROVING FROM THE S. HAVE THUS OPTED TO LET DENSE
FOG ADVY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z. AS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE AT LEAST FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY IF MORE RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS LATE TONIGHT/TUE...EXPECT FOG TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE.

AS FOR WINDS...LOCALLY GUSTY S-SW WINDS OF 20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF SRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES. ALSO...A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 25KT OR SO MAY OCCUR
IN THE VCNTY OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER
20KT. WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING WED-FRI...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263-264-
     266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 1137 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT.

12Z RAOB FROM SPRINGFIELD MEASURED A TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.67 INCHES. THIS IS A SWEET SPOT FOR A
DECENT FREQUENCY OF AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE NOW EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS A DENSE AGITATED FIELD OF CUMULUS...WITH
UPDRAFTS LIKELY TO EXCEED THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION SOON.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF
TODAYS STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY LOW DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL SUPPRESSION IS ONGOING AS
THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOVERS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WE STILL BELIEVE THAT STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT..AS THE RAP NOW ANALYZES THETA E DIFFERENTIALS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES K. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...AS A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS
NOW EXISTS OVER THE REGION.

A FEW DOWNBURSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...A FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 3000
FEET. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT.

STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 514 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE FORECAST
REASONING...JUST ISSUED A REACTIVE UPDATE TO TRACK THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHLIGHT THOSE AREAS
WITH 60-80 PERCENT POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS
ACTIVITY PREFERENTIALLY BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF
FLORENCE AND WEST OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHORTLY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

THE APPROACH OF A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
HELPED TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
SLOWLY SAGGED INTO THE NORTHERN PEE DEE REGION AND WILL MOVE INTO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 3-4 PM. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO LIKELY ACROSS
THIS REGION. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE CONVECTION WILL EXPAND/MOVE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
BY THIS EVE. THIS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...SHOULD A LARGE ENOUGH COLD
POOL DEVELOP WHICH WOULD HELP TO DRIVE CONVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE MID CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS
THE SLOWLY INLAND PROPAGATING SEABREEZE. LOWEST POPS WILL BE
FORECAST ON THE MARINE SIDE OF THE SEABREEZE WHERE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LEAST.

THE MAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN GIVEN VERY WEAK/ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT STEERING FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE...PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY RESULT IN A
WET-MICROBURST OR TWO...CAPABLE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS. SMALL SIZE HAIL IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...POPS WILL DROP SMARTLY AFTER
DARK. HOWEVER...MAY SEE ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDER
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL LAND BREEZE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE WEAKNESSES AND UPPER IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

INTERESTING UPPER LOW EASILY VISIBLE ON WV IMAGERY TODAY WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO FL/GA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEFORE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES...THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND HENCE UPPER
RIDGING WILL NOT HAVE THE CONVECTION-SQUELCHING EFFECT IT USUALLY
DOES. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OFFSHORE WHILE
THERMAL PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS EACH DAY. THESE
TOGETHER KEEP THE CAROLINAS IN A LOW-LEVEL SW RETURN FLOW REGIME
WHICH WILL TRANSPORT WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS WARMING TEMPS AND DECENT AFTN CONVECTION CHANCES EACH
DAY DURING THE SHORT TERM.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...DIURNAL CONVECTION TUESDAY LOOKS RATHER
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER COLD POOL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBTLE THICKNESS INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST...AND THIS COULD LIMIT
DIURNAL ACTIVITY...BUT SBCAPE OF NEAR 2000 J/KG AND TEMPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 90S SHOULD STILL SUPPORT PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY AND WILL CARRY SCHC POP NORTH...CHC SOUTH. A SIMILAR DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR IS PROGGED TO WORK INTO THE MID
LEVELS...SURFACE TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 90S SHOULD SUPPORT SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SO WILL CARRY
LOW-CHC POP WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION...BUT HIGH PWATS WILL
SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WHILE PRECIP LOADING AND WEAK
INVERTED-V SIGNATURES COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST.

MINS EACH NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 70S ON CONTINUED SW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...WEAKNESS IN THE H5 PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOWN
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THUS CONVECTION IS A GOOD BET EACH DAY WITH
MAX HEATING...TIED TO AN INLAND TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.
TOWARD THE WEEKEND...A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA AND STALL
CAUSING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THE WARMEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. MEANWHILE...MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS IS LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION VCSH IN TAFS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION...DEVELOPING ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...MAY
AFFECT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED AND WILL INDICATE VCTS/TEMPO SHOWERS AT FLO/LBT. ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW...CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING. IF A CELL
PARKS ITSELF OVER A TERMINAL...THEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AND
PERSIST FOR QUITE AWHILE.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT COULD REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS WITH BROKEN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MORNING FOG EACH
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS DUE TO A PERSISTENT 9 TO 10 SECOND ESE SWELL
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL KEEP THE COASTAL WATERS SANDWICHED WITH A PINCHED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MEANS THAT SW FLOW WILL
PERSIST...INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TUESDAY...TO 10-15 KTS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY UP TO 20 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY NEAR THE 20NM
BOUNDARY. SEAS WILL BE FORCED BY A COMBINATION OF A 3FT/9SEC SE
SWELL AND A 2FT/4 SEC SW WIND WAVE. TOGETHER...THESE WILL CREATE 3-5
FT SEAS...THE HIGHEST NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHERN 2
MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE AND INLAND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. THE STRONGER
SW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...THEN WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AND WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.
THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION...BUT IF
IT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
DOMINATED BY THE HIGHER FREQUENCY SOUTHERLY WAVES. THESE WAVES WILL
MASK A WEAKENING EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR/RJD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 403 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING DRY...BUT CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A
COOLER...AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUD SHIELD HAS BROKEN UP TO A FIELD OF SCT-BKN CU...WITH
SOME ENHANCED CU EVIDENT OVER NERN PA. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAPES AROUND 2000J ACCORDING TO LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS. 14Z HRRR STILL WANTS TO POP OFF A FEW SMALL CELLS
OVER MY EASTERN ZONES...AND I CAN`T DISCOUNT THEM TOTALLY GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE ALREADY QUITE WARM AND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PUSH PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP WITH SUCH WEAK
FORCING. SO WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN 20% SO WILL
STICK WITH THE DRY FCST AND HANDLE ANY ROGUE STORMS THAT MAY FORM
WITH SHORT TERM UPDATES.

M/CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME INC IN
CLOUDS PSBL OVR THE NRN TIER MTNS TWD DAYBREAK AS LOW PRES TRACKS
EWD FM THE UPPER GRT LKS ACRS SRN ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AS A BIG SURGE IN HEAT SLIDES EAST
COURTESY OF A SFC HIGH OFF TO OUR SOUTH. A BULLS-EYE OF PLUS 2-3
ST DEVIATION 850 MB TEMPS...AROUND 22C...AND A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
WESTERLY 925-850 MB DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PEAK IN THE
UPCOMING MINI HEAT WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY FROM 16-23Z WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS LWX AND PHI. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 90S IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE IN THE 95-97F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK AT 100-102F. EVEN ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 87-90F.

AN EAST-WEST RIBBON OF WARM 700MB TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE WILL
CAP OFF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAT OF THE WEATHER ACTION IN THE FORM OF HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND
AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH A BELT OF MDTLY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-35KTS AT 700 MB WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
WEAKER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. THIS MAY KEEP SHOWERS LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF DEEPER/COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WITH LLVL
WINDS VEERING ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NNE BY LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY.

THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE STANDS THE BEST CHC TO SEE A SHOWER
/OR AFTERNOON TSRA/ THURSDAY AS THE NRN EDGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR /IN
THE 44-48MM RANGE/ WILL STAY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE.

FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY PWAT AIR /IN THE 16-20MM RANGE/ SINKS SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL SUPPLY US WITH LITTLE
OR NOR CHC FOR RAIN DURING THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY /RANGING FROM THE U70S NW...TO 92-94F SE/ WILL
BE A GOOD 4-6 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AFTERNOON HOURS...ROBBING SEVERAL HOURS
OF HEATING.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN GRADUALLY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY /BACK TO AROUND NORMAL/. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHILLY...WITH A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
KBFD SEEING A 48 OR 49F DAYBREAK TEMP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY PER THE 00Z GEFS AND EC MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF MID DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT..

AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVR ERN SXNS...BUT POINT-
PROBABILITIES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 20 PCT AT BEST...AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.

HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK TUES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WX
WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERS SCT
STG-SVR TSTMS. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
THU-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 142 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION
TODAY PROVIDING DRY...BUT CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A
COOLER...AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LOW CLOUD SHIELD HAS BROKEN UP TO A FIELD OF SCT-BKN CU...WITH
SOME ENHANCED CU EVIDENT OVER NERN PA. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAPES AROUND 2000J ACCORDING TO LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS. 14Z HRRR STILL WANTS TO POP OFF A FEW SMALL CELLS
OVER MY EASTERN ZONES...AND I CAN`T DISCOUNT THEM TOTALLY GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE ALREADY QUITE WARM AND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PUSH PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP WITH SUCH WEAK
FORCING. SO WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN 20% SO WILL
STICK WITH THE DRY FCST AND HANDLE ANY ROGUE STORMS THAT MAY FORM
WITH SHORT TERM UPDATES.

M/CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME INC IN
CLOUDS PSBL OVR THE NRN TIER MTNS TWD DAYBREAK AS LOW PRES TRACKS
EWD FM THE UPPER GRT LKS ACRS SRN ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AS A BIG SURGE IN HEAT SLIDES EAST
COURTESY OF A SFC HIGH OFF TO OUR SOUTH. A BULLS-EYE OF PLUS 2-3
ST DEVIATION 850 MB TEMPS...AROUND 22C...AND A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
WESTERLY 925-850 MB DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PEAK IN THE
UPCOMING MINI HEAT WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY FROM 16-23Z WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS LWX AND PHI. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 90S IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE IN THE 95-97F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK AT 100-102F. EVEN ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 87-90F.

AN EAST-WEST RIBBON OF WARM 700MB TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE WILL
CAP OFF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAT OF THE WEATHER ACTION IN THE FORM OF HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND
AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS WITH A BELT OF MDTLY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-35KTS AT 700 MB WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF DEEPER/COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WITH LLVL
WINDS VEERING ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NNE BY LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY.

THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE STANDS THE BEST CHC TO SEE A SHOWER
/OR AFTERNOON TSRA/ THURSDAY AS THE NRN EDGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR /IN
THE 44-48MM RANGE/ WILL STAY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE.

FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY PWAT AIR /IN THE 16-20MM RANGE/ SINKS SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL SUPPLY US WITH LITTLE
OR NOR CHC FOR RAIN DURING THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY /RANGING FROM THE U70S NW...TO 92-94F SE/ WILL
BE A GOOD 4-6 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AFTERNOON HOURS...ROBBING SEVERAL HOURS
OF HEATING.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN GRADUALLY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY /BACK TO AROUND NORMAL/. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHILLY...WITH A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
KBFD SEEING A 48 OR 49F DAYBREAK TEMP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY PER THE 00Z GEFS AND EC MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF MID DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT..

AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVR ERN SXNS...BUT POINT-
PROBABILITIES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 20 PCT AT BEST...AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.

HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK TUES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WX
WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERS SCT
STG-SVR TSTMS. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
THU-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1254 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
SCT TRW PLAT W/TSTM TEMPO 19-22Z KCSV. ISO CELLS IN DAVISION CO
W/VCTS KBNA...SCT040CB KCSV. ANOTHER QUIET NGT TNGT W/IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT KCKV AND KCSV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH SHORT TERM MODEL SHOWING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AFTER CONVECTIVE TEMP HAS BEEN REACHED. ON THE 12Z MON KOHX
SOUNDING IT IS LISTED AT 88 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE
REACHED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCATIONS BY THE NOON TIME HR.
CURRENT TEMPS IN LINE WITH FORECASTED HIGH VALUES AND THUS MADE NO
CHANGES IN THESE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/

AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FG AT KCKV SHALL BEGIN TO LET UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LIKELY BY 17Z. HEAVY RAIN MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TERMINALS IF IMPACTED BY STORMS. BY 00Z VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS. BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KCSV AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND ALTHOUGH RUC/NAM/HRRR INSIST ON BREAKING OUT
SHOWERS ALONG A SWATH OF DECENT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION BASICALLY
CIRCLING THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IS
OVERTAKING ANY LIFT BEING GENERATED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS
LIKELY MEANS THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS. WITH THIS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS
DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE TN VALLEY...THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AROUND 18Z TODAY AS TEMPS
RISE. ALTHOUGH...NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF SO TEMPS MAY RISE
QUICKLY TODAY...RISING INTO THE 90S BY 17Z. LATEST HRRR BREAKS OUT
SCATTERED THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME. LOTS OF SBCAPE AND PRETTY GOOD
LAPSE RATES ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 18Z SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
WESTWARD AND MIX WITH THE DRIER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSITION OUR H5 FLOW TO NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. GFS NEVER LETS UP
THE DEEP MOISTURE HOWEVER NAM SEEMS TO PROGRESSIVELY DRY OUT THE
COLUMN WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE FOR THIS CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEAKER GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SINCE GFS IS SO AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS...DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S BY MID WEEK AND HEAT INDEXES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AT
THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE 3-4 DEGREES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NASHVILLE AND EAST. HOWEVER WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
COME CLOSE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION ON ANY ADVISORIES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A POSSIBILITY OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEING EJECTED FROM A SOUTHEASTERN MOVING H5 LOW FROM THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE BOTH SLOWED TO DELAY THIS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THE GFS PLOWS RIGHT THROUGH THE MID STATE WHILE ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. SINCE THIS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THE MODELS ATTM...WILL STICK WITH THE FAVORING OF THE ECMWF AND
LEAVE THE EXTENDED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

 227 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ACCAS OUTSIDE IS DEVELOPING INTO ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC IS
DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING THIS PRECIP...BUT IS ALSO INDICATING IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z. THUS HAVE INCLUDED PRE-FIRST
PERIOD POPS IN THE ZONES FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE EARLY POPS WHICH
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR
WILL PREVENT ANY SERIOUS THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY MOVES WEST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TOMORROW...THEN WILL BE CONCENTRATED
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER BEFORE ENDING LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVERAGE...THEN WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS AND UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  94  69  93  /  10  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              72  95  70  95  /  10  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  97  68  96  /  10  30  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  73  94  72  92  /  10  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  70  92  /  20  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  85  65  86  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  94  66  91  /  10  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   60  85  60  87  /  20  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  94  70  94  /  10  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  94  71  93  /  10  30  10  10
WINK TX                    74  98  72  95  /  10  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/10






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 247 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA.  WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SLOWLY BEEN FIZZLING IN THE WARM ADVECTION CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE LOW
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENT CLOUD BAND STILL EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO THE DAKOTAS AND
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS MOSTLY INACTIVE SO FAR. THE OTHER
MAIN STORY HAS BEEN THE HEAT TODAY.  MOST PLACES IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
HEATING...HAVE NO PLANS TO TAKE DOWN THE HEADLINES. AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND HEAT RELATED HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AHEAD OF
FRONT...BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE 310K
SURFACE...AS NOTED BY THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD BAND OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND THE UPPER PENINSULA...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  TEND TO THINK BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH.  LATEST MODELS
INDICATED THAT THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHEAR
AS IT MOVES ACROSS SW ONTARIO LATE.  RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK
WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT WHERE CAPES WILL
REACH OVER 1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM 750MB.  ADDITIONALLY...WILL
ALSO HAVE MODERATE 850-700MB FGEN OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS WELL.
THE LATEST HIRES-WRF SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL
EXIST...BEFORE MOVING EAST WITH THE FORCING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE WORDING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED...BUT BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING.  SHOULD BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S EXCEPT OVER FAR N-C
WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY
CLEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA BETWEEN 21-00Z.  POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CARRY OVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING NORTH
OF ROUTE 29.  IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BECOMES A
POSSIBILITY THOUGH IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL.  DESPITE MOST
MODELS SPITTING OUT PRECIP TOMORROW...THERE WILL BE CAPPING TO
OVERCOME ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AGAIN.  THINK MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT ISSUE SOMEWHAT
TOMORROW SO WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF FORECAST AREA.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPES (GREATER THAN
2000 J/KG)...ISOLD SVR WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS
WILL EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
POTENTIAL.  WITH THE FRONT NOT CLEARING CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY...TEMPS WILL SOAR ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.  MID TO UPPER 90S
LOOKS DOABLE BUT WITH MORE HUMIDITY THANKS TO THE MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE HOT SPOTS OF
WAUPACA AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES...AND ALSO FOR WINNEBAGO.  WINDS DO
TURN NE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD BRING COOLER LAKE AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE COUNTIES BEFORE POINTS FARTHER
WEST.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NXT MON. THREE MAIN DETAILS TO DECIPHER
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...HOW LONG WL ANY PCPN HANG
AROUND TUE NGT AS THE CDFNT CONTS TO SLOWLY SAG SWD? SECOND...WHAT
ARE THE PCPN CHCS WED NGT/THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE? LASTLY...WHAT IS THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW UPR TROF FOR NXT WEEKEND? TEMPS
WL COOL TO AROUND NORMAL MID-WEEK...BUT BEGIN A SLOW UPTICK TOWARD
NXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 90+ MAX TEMPS.

THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED CDFNT WL SLOWLY SINK TOWARD THE WI/IL
BORDER TUE NGT WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED POST-FRONTAL SHWRS/
TSTMS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI THRU MUCH OF THE NGT. MAY EVEN NEED TO
CARRY A SLGT CHC POP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FNT GETS ON TUE. COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S NORTH...60 TO 65 DEGS
ELSEWHERE.

ENUF OF A NW FLOW ALOFT STILL IN PLACE ON WED TO SEND THE CDFNT
INTO NRN IL...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LINGERING PCPN CHCS WED
MORNING OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES IS THEN FCST
TO MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO NE WI ON E-NE WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
FCST AREA WL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID-JULY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S AND DEW PTS SETTLING INTO THE 50S.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ARISES WED NGT AS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A
FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SIGNAL ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
WI...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MDLS SUGGEST THAT THIS WL NOT
OCCUR. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR A WHILE NOW...
DO NOT WISH TO DISCOUNT IT...THUS HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP FOR CNTRL
WI AFTER MIDNGT. A WEAK/LITTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO DROP
SE FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY TOWARD IL ON THU ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET. WHILE THE
MDLS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...PCPN CHCS LOOK MINIMAL
BASED ON A LACK OF SFC FEATURE AND INSTABILITY. ACTUAL MDL QPF
LOCATION ALSO VARY FROM NRN WI TO SRN WI TO NONE AT ALL...THUS
A LOW END POP WL SUFFICE WITH MOST AREAS AGAIN MISSING OUT ON MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL.

THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD HAVE PULLED FAR ENUF AWAY BY THU EVENING
SUCH THAT THE SLGT CHC POPS WERE REMOVED. OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY
FOR THU NGT INTO FRI WL BE THE RISING UPR HEIGHTS AS THE LARGE AND
DOMINANT UPR RDG OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EDGES A BIT FARTHER EAST.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO START EDGING UPWARD WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE LWR 80S NORTH/LAKESHORE TO THE MID TO UPR 80S
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

FCST CONTINUITY BREAKS DOWN NXT WEEKEND BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MDLS
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE GFS/CANADIAN MDLS WANT TO QUICKLY RACE A
PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY EWD ACROSS EXTREME SRN CANADA BEFORE
TURNING SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS AS EARLY AS SAT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER (BY 18 HOURS). MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE EVEN SLOWER YET. THIS PLACES PLENTY OF DOUBT AS TO
EXACTLY WHEN TO BRING THE NXT CHC OF PCPN TO THE FCST AREA.
BETWEEN THE KNOWN FAST BIAS OF THE GFS COUPLED WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE UPR RDG (POKING NE TOWARD WI)...FEEL THE SLOWER WAY IS THE
PROPER CALL. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SAT DRY AND VERY WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S.

WL NEED TO CARRY SOME SORT OF POP FOR SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL ENERGY FINALLY DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK CDFNT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BETTER CHCS OF ACTUALLY
SEEING MEASURABLE PCPN WL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE CAP
IS WEAKER AND THE FNT APPROACHES AT PEAK HEATING. THE FNT REACHES
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI SUNDAY NGT WHICH IS TYPICALLY NOT GOOD TIMING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. IF THE FNT IS STILL CLOSE ENUF HEADED
INTO MON...THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS
DEVELOP OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR
POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KTS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A COOL FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER NORTH
WISCONSIN.  MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR LLWS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  LATEST
THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME REMAINS MARGINAL ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM TAFS.

MPC
&&

.MARINE...THE COOL FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TUE WL LIKELY HAVE A
SIG IMPACT ON BOATERS ON THE LAKE AND BAY. TIMING STILL A LITTLE
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE...BUT BALLPARKING IT WOULD HAVE A WIND SHIFT
OCCURRING BETWEEN 19-21Z. BUT EXPECT WLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FOR
A COUPLE HRS AFTER FROPA. THAT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SEAS QUICKLY
GETTING VERY CHOPPY. SHORT DURATION OF THE CONDITIONS AND THE ABRUPT
ONSET SUGGEST SITN PROBABLY BEST HANDLED WITH MARINE WX STATEMENT
RATHER THAN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT ADDED MENTION OF CONDITIONS
INTO HWO TO GIVE BOATERS A HEADS-UP ON THE SITN IF THEY ARE PLANNING
TO GO OUT ON THE LAKE OR BAY TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ037-045-048.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ020-021-030-031-
035-036-038>040-049-050-073-074.

&&

$$
MPC/AK