Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/12/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
223 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS DRAPED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NY STATE AND
FAR N CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND SBCAPE 500 J/KG. HRRR INDICATES THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC TOWARD
EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY HOLD ON INTO SOUTHERN CT AFTER DARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED POP ACCORDINGLY...WITH SCT COVERAGE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SW CT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ISOLD COVERAGE EWARD TO
THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLD AT MOST...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY MEAGER CAPE ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN
NYC METRO...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PASS THROUGH WED
MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO THERE COULD
BE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER AS
MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY FAIRLY
SHALLOW.
DESPITE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMIZED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
LOWS WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF TONIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 70 IN NYC METRO...TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE POLAR JET WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD - A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PERIOD OF WEATHER. NO STRONG MAJOR
SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA...THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TYPICAL COASTAL SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...THOUGH STILL
COMFORTABLE IN THE LOWER 60S.
WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MOVING IN ON MONDAY. BASED ON THIS...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NWP SYSTEMS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE
TROUGHING FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COMING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. 10/00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN 09/12Z GEFS MEMBERS WITH OPERATION
ECMWF SUGGESTING A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE THAT TRACKS FASTER YET AND
TO THE NORTH. 10/00Z CMC GLOBAL IS ALSO FASTER THAN GFS...BUT 09/12Z
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION. THUS THE TREND IS SUGGESTING
THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
WILL DIVIDE UP PREVIOUS FCST PRECIPITATION TO FOCUS ON DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THEN HAVE LOWERED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. KEPT 30 POP FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PUT LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE (CLIMATOLOGICALLY LESS FAVORED.) CLIMATOLOGICAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CONTINUED IN FCST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH UNCERTAINTY
OF STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 85 TO 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE NY/NJ METRO AREA WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LOW CHANCE FOR NYC HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PASSING MID-DECK
IMPACTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SHRA ACROSS TERMINALS N/W OF NYC THIS EVENING -
BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NE-ENE FLOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM S TO N. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE
OCCURRING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXACT TIMING.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET AS A RELATIVELY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS COULD DELIVER ISOLD AMTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...QUIET THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MON AFTERNOONS THAT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/JST
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO REMAIN
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH THE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DACKS. THEY REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW GIVEN THE CAPPING OBSERVED IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND 600MB
BUT TAPPING INTO CHILLY AIR THAT HAS RESULTED IN SOME HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. H2O VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
BECOMING STRUNG OUT WHILE ANOTHER ONE UPSTREAM WAS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS DRIER...THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND INTO OUR ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO NOT TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING POPS/WX WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER THE DACKS. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND VERY LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ACTUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL MIGRATE E OF THE
REGION...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF DECREASING POPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFINING THEM MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP/PERSIST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
AND COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TROF WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE SOMEWHAT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIET...AND THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED ON
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND...AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MERGES WITH THE BROADER
BERMUDA HIGH. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO CLOSE THE
WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND U50S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE
VALLEYS. H850 TEMPS RISE TO 16-17C BY FRI WITH INCREASING LOWER AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO
M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...ENSEMBLES
AND HPC ALL HINT AT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY N/NE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN AN INCREASING THREAT BY LATE
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...EXCEPT SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY MAY KEEP THE L90S LESS WIDESPREAD
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/CANADIAN GGEM/ECMWF...AND HPC FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. PWATS
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GEFS INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS SHOWS A SHARPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH FOR SUNDAY
WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE
POOLING INTO THE M60S TO L70S COUPLED WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES /IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES/ FOR SOME BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME SLOW
MOVERS WITH THE WEAKER DEEP SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LEAN
TOWARDS PULSE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...CHANCE POPS
WERE USED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH U50S
TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND A WEAK COOL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE LEANED CLOSER TO HPC WITH THE REGION STILL
IN A WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT.
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH
TEMPS A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PERHAPS PCPN TRENDING
TOWARDS NORMAL WITH THE WEEKEND-MONDAY POTENTIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME CLOUDS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD REACH KGFL BETWEEN 19Z-21Z...AND HAVE THEREFORE
INDICATED A VCSH GROUP. SOME THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
MENTION. ELSEWHERE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES.
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z/WED.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...ESP AT KGFL.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 5-10 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
SHOWERS AT KGFL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX. SOME PATCHY BR/FG IS POSSIBLE THU
AND FRI MORNINGS.
SAT-SUN...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO SLOWLY INCREASING.
LATEST EVALUATION OF THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 300 FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE DRY FUELS ARE INCREASING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY...AND RECOVER TO BETWEEN 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...AND CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY...OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. MOST
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...BGM/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT STAYS DRAPED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0730 EDT UPDATE...INSTABILITY SEEN IN MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL NJ TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NJ. LATEST RAPID REFRESH CYCLE CAPTURES THIS. LAST
06Z GFS AND NAM STILL SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS OVER NW SECTION OF
THE AREA. 10Z RR AND 06Z NAM/GFS SOUNDING SHOW VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY THOUGH. THUS HAVE PRESS BACK THE MENTION OF ANY
CONVECTION TO JUST THE AREAS NW OF NYC.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WHILE THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...CREATING JUST ENOUGH FORCING
THAT COULD HELP IGNITE A STORM OR TWO. TO ASSIST...A THERMAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN
ALLOWING FOR A SEA BREEZE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...WITH INITIALLY NE FLOW SHIFTING TO A SE
FLOW. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING ABOUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
RESTRICT THE SHORES FROM REACHING HIGHS MUCH WARMER THAN THE MID
80S...WHILE INLAND AREAS COULD SEE IN THE UPPER 80S. MET AND MAV
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO JUST USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS AS WELL AS DEW
PTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF HEATING. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AROUND 12Z WED...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ONCE AGAIN JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE AN ISO
SHOWER OR TSTORM. BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES IN FACT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE ANOTHER WARMING DAY INTO THE
80S...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMIZED WED AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST...LEADING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE...AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WILL RESULT IN DRYING IN THE VERTICAL DURING
THE DAY WED AND CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCT
OUT. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO TUES HIGHS WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING IN THE MID TEENS...AS WELL AS LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT BEING SIMILAR...DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND...TO
UPPER 60S NEAR THE CITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE POLAR JET WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD - A
TYPICAL MID SUMMER PERIOD OF WEATHER. NO STRONG MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FEATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA...THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TYPICAL COASTAL SEA BREEZES EXPECTED WITH
A SLOW INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...THOUGH STILL COMFORTABLE IN
THE LOWER 60S.
WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MOVING IN ON MONDAY. BASED ON THIS...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NWP SYSTEMS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE
TROUGHING FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COMING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. 10/00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN 09/12Z GEFS MEMBERS WITH OPERATION
ECMWF SUGGESTING A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE THAT TRACKS FASTER YET AND
TO THE NORTH. 10/00Z CMC GLOBAL IS ALSO FASTER THAN GFS...BUT 09/12Z
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION. THUS THE TREND IS SUGGESTING
THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY.
WILL DIVIDE UP PREVIOUS FCST PCPN TO FOCUS ON DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THEN HAVE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC
FOR SAT AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR. KEPT 30 POP FOR SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
PUT LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT IN SLIGHT CHANCE (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
LESS FAVORED.) CLIMATOLOGICAL AFTN CONVECTION CONTINUED IN FCST FOR
MONDAY AFTN WITH UNCERTAINTY OF STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 85 TO 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE NY/NJ METRO AREA WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LOW CHANCE FOR NYC HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE.
LIGHT NE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE E/SE AT 5 TO 10 KT BY 15Z. SEABREEZE WILL THEN IMPACT MOST
TERMINALS WITH A VERY SIMILAR TIMING TO MON...GENERALLY 17Z TO
21Z. AN ISOLD -SHRA IS POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE THIS AFT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THE EXACT TIMING.
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN E/NE WIND TO REESTABLISH ITSELF.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RELATIVELY
LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS/JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JST
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION LATE THIS WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRIEFLY NEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF WEAKENING
COLD FRONTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH OR MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT WX PATN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS
ORIENTED W-E AND SITUATED JUST N OF OUR FCST AREA...WHILE THE
Q-STNRY FRONT BNDRY REMAINS WELL S OVER NC. SOME MARGINAL INSTBY
EXTDS WELL N OF THE FRONT INTO THE SRN PART OF OUR AREA...DELMARVA
AND FAR SRN NJ. SOME SCT CNVTN HAS BEEN DVLPG IN THIS AREA BUT SO
FAR THE TOPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LTG. SLTG CHC TO CHC
POPS ARE MAINTAINED FOR THIS AREA THIS EVE.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS THE FAR N...IE POCONOS AND FAR NW NJ. SHWRS
AND ISOLD T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTBY
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY/PA. SOME MODELS INCLUDING HRRR AND RAP ARE SUGG
THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH FAR NRN PART OF FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN OR
EARLY EVE.
CNVTN...SHALLOW AND NOT SO SHALLOW...SHOULD END FAIRLY SOON AFTER
SUNSET AND DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE OVERALL PATN IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WILL BE MODERATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM
THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS. A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN
SHWRS/T-STORMS IS INDICATED N AND S...SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MARGINAL
INSTBY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OR TIMING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS 500MB INITIALIZATION HAS CAUGHT UP WITH THE PRESENT
SYSTEM OR THE DP/DT OF A FASTER EXIT OF THE 500MB TROF OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA HAS MADE IT RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON. EITHER
WAY BEST 500MB INITIALIZATION BY IT VS THE WRF-NMMB WE HAVE SEEN
FOR A WHILE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BETTER THAN
THE WRF-NMMB WITH ITS 850MB AND 925MB INITIALIZATION.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS SQUEEZING THE TIMING POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
IS FORCING MORE OF AN END AROUND TO THE STEWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS (A PLETHORA OF 850MB DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE
15C) THAT MAY INITIALLY GET SHUNTED AROUND THE SFC HIGH BEFORE
ARRIVING AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVE. THUS THIS LONG TERM
PACKAGE HAS DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN CHANCES BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS THE FCST PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE PCPN ARRIVES. WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
AS TO HOW HOT IT WILL GET (IN TERMS OF REACHING ADVY OR WARNING
CRITERIA, MORE 90S SEEM LIKELY). DEPENDS UPON HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS
IS AROUND, WOULD IMAGINE ONCE THE CAP IS GONE THAT TSTMS SHOULD
POP RATHER EASILY ON THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
DRYING EARLY NEXT WEEK OFF THE 12Z RUN, WANT TO SEE MORE
CONTINUITY BEFORE NIBBLING ON THAT BAIT.
AS FOR DAY TO DAY: AFT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO BE DONE, SO NO POPS ARE INCLUDED. NAM MOS HANGS
ONTO CLOUDS WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN EXORBITANT AMOUNT OF TIME ON WED
NGT VS ITS OWN FCST SOUNDING MOISTURE. SO WE HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD GFS MOS MOST PLACES WITH CLEARER SKIES FOR MINS.
A SIMILAR SOUNDING FCST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WITH EVEN STRONGER CAPPING SOUTH. NORTH
ITS BORDERLINE AGAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP NOT HOLDING.
BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST SFC MOISTURE (ALBEIT BASED ON TODAY`S
RUN) IS LIKELY OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY OFF THE GFS MODEL. THUS THE
CAP MAY WORK FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. COVERAGE ATTM APPEARS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING AROUND A 1F BUMP UP FROM
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS, PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THE
WARMER CHOICES OF STAT GUIDANCE ARE GIVING US.
NO POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE GOING WITH THE RADIATIONAL STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MINS. WE SUPPOSE THAT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT MAR THAT DECISION. BUT THE OVERALL MODEL TREND OF
RETURN FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWER AND THUS SO WILL WE AND GO COOLER WITH
THE MINS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
SPEAKING OF SLOWER, WE COULD NEARLY CUT AND PASTE OUR THURSDAY
THOUGHTS FROM YESTERDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SHOULD START
BACKING UP AND MIGHT BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE CAPPING NORTH THAN SOUTH. THAT PLUS
TIMING ERRORS, WE KEPT LOW CHANCES JUST LATE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY, FCST 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES AND 925MB TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SO ARE OUR HIGH TEMPS. LEFTOVER CONVECTION MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR
CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN.
TREATING THE WEEKEND AS ONE, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SUNDAY ATTM HAS
THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THAN SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW SHOULD BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA WITHOUT ANY FCST CAP TO STOP IT. FCST PWAT
VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES, SO THE FIRST ORDER
OF CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER SIDE, FFG BECAUSE
WE HAVE BEEN BONE DRY (AND HOT) MOST OF THIS MONTH IS AT THE LEGAL
LIMIT OF 3" PER HOUR IN NEARLY OUR ENTIRE CWA. REGARDLESS SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN HOW MOIST THE
COLUMN WILL BE. THIS STARTS STRETCHING THE SCIENCE (OR MAYBE ITS
STRETCHED TOO MUCH ALREADY), BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE
LOCALIZED AND OF THE WET MICROBURST TYPE THAN THE PAST TWO
WEEKENDS. WE DID NOT SWAY MUCH FROM STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS. WE COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS IF
THERE IS LESS DEBRIS CLOUDS AND OR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVERALL.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO HAS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, BUT
SLOWS ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION VS THE GFS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER UNTIL
BETTER CONSENSUS OR HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SOLUTION BECOMES
APPARENT. WHILE MAX TEMPS MAY BE COMPARABLE TO THE WEEKEND, UNDER
THIS SCENARIO DEW POINTS WOULD BE LOWER AND THUS A SLIGHTLY LESS
OPPRESSIVE AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST...ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO VEER SOMEWHAT TO THE SE
DURING THE AFTERN. SOME LIGHT FOG LATE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
IS POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY AT RDG/MIV.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OR HAZE THURSDAY MORNING
AT OUTLYING TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START,
GENERAL LOWERING OF CONDITIONS IN INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE FCST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
BECOMING SELY NEAR THE SHORE AND DEL BAY IN THE AFTN DUE TO
SEA-BREEZE/BAY-BREEZE EFFECTS. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
S OF LITTLE EGG ARE FCST TO INCREASE SMWHT WED AFTN AS A FRONTAL
WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES NE OFF OF CAPE HAT.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK. THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD WEAKER SFC LOW SOLUTIONS, SO WE CAPPED SEAS
EARLY AT AROUND 4 FEET. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON THE WEEKEND, WAVE WATCH BRINGS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SEAS TO OUR OCEAN ZONES. AS OFTEN IS THE CASE, THE GUIDANCE
IS TOO BULLISH WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR MASSES, SO WE KEPT SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET ON THE WEEKEND ALSO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 12TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT PHILADELPHIA. TUESDAY`S HIGH SO FAR HAS BEEN 89.
EVEN THOUGH PHILADELPHIA JUST BARELY REACHED 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY,
THE CURRENT STRING TIES FOR THE FOURTH LONGEST ON RECORD.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER
AT PHILADELPHIA.
18 DAYS ENDING ON AUGUST 15, 1988
17 DAYS ENDING ON AUGUST 5, 1995
13 DAYS ENDING ON SEPTEMBER 5, 1953
12 DAYS ENDING ON JULY 6, 1901
12 DAYS ENDING ON JULY 23, 1952
12 DAYS ENDING ON AUGUST 3, 1999
12 DAYS ENDING ON JULY 9, 2012
A FORMAL RECORD EVENT REPORT (RERPHL) WILL BE ISSUED FOR
PHILADELPHIA ONCE WE ARE CERTAIN THAT THE STRING HAS ENDED.
RERILG AND RERRDG WERE ISSUED FOR WILMINGTON AND READING. EACH
HAD A STRING OF 11 DAYS WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 90
DEGREES THAT ENDED YESTERDAY AND MADE THEIR TOP TEN LIST. YOU CAN
FIND THEM ON OUR WEB SITE UNDER TEXT PRODUCTS...CLIMATE SUB-SECTION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...AMC/GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/GIGI/HEAVENER
CLIMATE...DELISI/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
859 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A VERY NICE SPIN OVER
SOUTH FL. THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED THE DRAMATIC SWITCH IN
THE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL
LOW CENTER WITH WINDS YESTERDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST, THIS MORNING
SOUTH, AND THIS EVENING DUE WESTERLY. THIS SPIN NOW LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. MODELS SHOWS THIS LOW STRETCHING
OUT AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT-THU. FOR TONIGHT, WITH LESSER
CONVERGENCE, WE EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC, BUT
KEEPS IT MAINLY OFF THE COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE STILL ONSHORE UP THROUGH 3K FT...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME ATLANTIC COASTAL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. HAVE GONE
WITH 20 POPS INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND 30 POPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012/
AVIATION...
THE LATEST WRF AND HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALONG THE EAST COAST LOCATIONS. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF
INDICATED THE BEST COVERAGE SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND
9-10Z. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCSH
THROUGH THESE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND AND AT APF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SLOWLY ERODING. APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO
THE CAUSE OF THIS OUTBREAK, BUT AT ANY RATE THE MODELS WERE
CLUELESS. IN FACT, THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAPID REFRESH
DID NOT RECOGNIZE ANYTHING WAS OCCURRING AND NEITHER THE GFS NOR
THE NAM FORECASTED WELL WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS. OF COURSE, THE
PERSISTENT DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WAS A MAJOR PLAYER
ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES. THIS ALL INTERACTED WITH A
TROF NOW IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT EXTENDS FROM THE SFC TO 70H, SOME
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE THAT
SET UP ALONG THE SE CST AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED OFFSHORE
AROUND 06-07Z AND INTERACTED WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE.
HAVING SAID ALL OF THIS, THE VERY SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH CAN THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS UNDER PLACE EVEN THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CLOUDS NOW RAPIDLY CLEARING. IN FACT, EVEN THE AREAS OF
OUR NW INTERIOR HAVE BEEN SUNNY BUT THEY ALSO MAY REMAIN UNDER SOME
SORT OF SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. BUT CURRENT
PLAN IS TO STILL INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS
AS ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
COLLIER COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING.
THE DEEP EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE
BOTH AT MID LEVELS AND AT THE SFC REMAINS ACROSS N FL AND STRETCHING
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE POP GUIDANCE AS
BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE, ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TUTT LIKE FEATURE THAT IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. A DRY SLOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROF COULD LOWER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TEMPORARILY BUT THEN AS THE TROF CONTINUES INTO
THE GULF, HIGH PWAT`S WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA. SO BASICALLY,
IT APPEARS THAT AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST FLOW TO WEAKEN AND CONVECTION
WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND GO BACK TO THE MORE
PRONOUNCED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING VARIETY CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND.
MARINE...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 KT OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 88 77 89 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 89 79 89 / 30 40 30 40
MIAMI 74 90 77 89 / 30 50 30 40
NAPLES 73 89 75 91 / 20 50 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
812 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.AVIATION...
THE LATEST WRF AND HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALONG THE EAST COAST LOCATIONS. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF
INDICATED THE BEST COVERAGE SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND
9-10Z. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCSH
THROUGH THESE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND AND AT APF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SLOWLY ERODING. APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO
THE CAUSE OF THIS OUTBREAK, BUT AT ANY RATE THE MODELS WERE
CLUELESS. IN FACT, THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAPID REFRESH
DID NOT RECOGNIZE ANYTHING WAS OCCURRING AND NEITHER THE GFS NOR
THE NAM FORECASTED WELL WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS. OF COURSE, THE
PERSISTENT DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WAS A MAJOR PLAYER
ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES. THIS ALL INTERACTED WITH A
TROF NOW IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT EXTENDS FROM THE SFC TO 70H, SOME
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE THAT
SET UP ALONG THE SE CST AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED OFFSHORE
AROUND 06-07Z AND INTERACTED WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE.
HAVING SAID ALL OF THIS, THE VERY SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH CAN THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS UNDER PLACE EVEN THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CLOUDS NOW RAPIDLY CLEARING. IN FACT, EVEN THE AREAS OF
OUR NW INTERIOR HAVE BEEN SUNNY BUT THEY ALSO MAY REMAIN UNDER SOME
SORT OF SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. BUT CURRENT
PLAN IS TO STILL INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS
AS ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
COLLIER COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING.
THE DEEP EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE
BOTH AT MID LEVELS AND AT THE SFC REMAINS ACROSS N FL AND STRETCHING
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE POP GUIDANCE AS
BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE, ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TUTT LIKE FEATURE THAT IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. A DRY SLOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROF COULD LOWER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TEMPORARILY BUT THEN AS THE TROF CONTINUES INTO
THE GULF, HIGH PWAT`S WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA. SO BASICALLY,
IT APPEARS THAT AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST FLOW TO WEAKEN AND CONVECTION
WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND GO BACK TO THE MORE
PRONOUNCED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING VARIETY CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND.
MARINE...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 KT OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 88 77 89 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 89 79 89 / 30 40 30 40
MIAMI 74 90 77 89 / 30 50 30 40
NAPLES 73 89 75 91 / 20 50 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...EARLIER START FOR STORMS TODAY...
TODAY...A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHICH IS PRODUCING A DEEPER LAYER OF SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THIS IS INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AND SATELLITE-
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS THE DRY RIBBON THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE AREA IS ERODING. IN ADDITION...THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
SOME VORT ENERGY LIFTING NW TOWARDS THE TREASURE COAST SO EXPECT
AN EARLIER ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR ALL
OF THE AREA...RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH INTERIOR.
WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AMOUNTS...THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ACCUMULATING 2-3 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR TWO. BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPS STILL REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR AND MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT HAVE COOLED TO -8C...THERE
REMAINS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WITH THE EARLIER ONSET OF STORMS EXPECTED...THINK THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. BUT INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE TREASURE
COAST (30 POP) DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 POP)
UP TO ABOUT THE CAPE.
WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BRING IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH GFS SHOWING PW VALUES
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. HAVE
THEREFORE LIMITED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE (AROUND 50%) FOR THE TIME
BEING. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST
AND LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER IF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PERSIST INTO THE AFT...TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN INDICATED.
THU-FRI...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK WITH LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW PERSISTING. GFS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STILL
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
SAT-TUE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
INTO GULF DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH KEEPS RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
AREA. LONG TERM MODELS THEN SHOW RIDGE BUILDING BACK SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30-40 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING EVIDENCED BY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE ATLC AND EASTERN GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EARLIER START TO SHRA/TSRA AND
OVERALL HIGHER COVERAGE. WILL NEED VCSH/VCTS THIS MORNING FOR MLB-
SUA. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP IN THE EARLY-MID AFTN FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS (MCO/SFB/LEE) FOR TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS. AN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY WORK FARTHER NORTH. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND
UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
WED-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 2-4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 89 76 / 30 10 40 20
MCO 93 74 93 74 / 40 10 50 30
MLB 89 76 88 76 / 40 20 40 20
VRB 89 76 89 75 / 40 20 50 20
LEE 93 75 93 76 / 40 10 50 30
SFB 94 76 92 76 / 40 10 50 30
ORL 92 76 93 77 / 40 10 50 30
FPR 88 75 88 74 / 40 30 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
642 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE KS WERE THE RESULT OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE LEFT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE. WITHOUT ANY FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE AREA FOR THU. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE...TEMPERATURES WITH RETURN OF ANOTHER HOT AND
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY
DIURNAL HEATING HAS PROMOTED AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE THERMAL TROF ALOFT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND LATEST RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST
THEY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CARRY ISOLATED
MENTION UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT
UNDER SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT A BIT LESS
DIURNAL CU AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE TAIL END OF VORTICITY AND UPPER
JET NOSING INTO KANSAS. HOWEVER MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD MITIGATE OR LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO A ROGUE/ISOLATED
NATURE SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO AND PERHAPS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE GENERALLY SUGGESTS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUBTLE VARIANCES IN THE HANDLING OF WEAK
TROUGHINESS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DO POSE SOME CHALLENGES. THIS
IS MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERLIES MIGRATING UNDER THE RIDGE FROM
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS GULF COAST PERHAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD TEMPER THE COMING HOT STRETCH AND AT
THE MOMENT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS BRUTAL AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED IN
LATE JUNE. THAT SAID...MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES TO MATCH SEEM VERY REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DARMOFAL
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS. LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT...AND VEERING TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND
FROM 6000-9000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF KCNU...AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
INTERACTS WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
KCNU TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND SPARSE COVERAGE.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 66 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 67 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 66 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 65 95 67 96 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 67 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 66 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 68 96 69 96 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
504 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
14Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH CENTER OF RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. RUC 1.5 PVU ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL SMALL
PV ANOMALIES MOVING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. 12Z RAOBS CONTINUED THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING NOTED AT DNR AROUND H65.
AT THE SFC...1020MB HIGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.
REST OF TODAY...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS COLORADO. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN MINIMAL CHANGES OBSERVED ON
SOUNDINGS DO NOT THINK THINGS WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TEMP
WISE. WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK CINH TODAY...HAVE
DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP GIVING WARMING ALOFT NOTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THINK DRY FORECAST STILL WARRANTED.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INDUCING AN AREA OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON EDGE OF H7 THERMAL RIDGE. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SMALL POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA...ELEVATED CINH
PROFILES REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND HAVE DOUBTS THAT OVERALL WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR
STORMS. PV ANOMALY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...WITH SFC FRONT LAGGING WELL BEHIND IT. GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND BEST NEAR SFC FORCING ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT THERE WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALSO MAKE IT DOUBTFUL
THAT ANYTHING INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
CWA BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...HAVE DELAYED PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL AFTER
21Z IN THE NORTH AND REMOVED THEM ELSEWHERE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT TO
HOLD UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN CWA WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW WITH MID AND UPPER 90S EXPECTED
ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE AND
GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR THIS
WEEKEND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.
IN THE NEARTERM...AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION THURSDAY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE BUT HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCES OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WORKING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADVECTING IN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS DRIER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS MAYBE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN WHICH DAYS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT HOW THE UPPER PATTERN ULTIMATELY
EVOLVES.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM ALL MODELS SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN HOLD IN THE 30-32C RANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEREFORE TREND
BACK INTO THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT A REPEAT OF THE RECORD HEAT FROM LATE JUNE WILL
RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
203 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
STALLED THERE INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SE
VA/NE NC. THERE IS STILL SOME ELEVATED CAPE PER RAP ANALYSIS...SO A
FEW EMBEDDED CELLS WITH INTENSE LIGHTING COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.
OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TOWARD MORNING WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FELL TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 70 TO 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO THU WITH MAINLY
SCTD AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL WASHOUT OR
DISSIPATE DURING THU...AS HIER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND BERMUDA HI PRES
BLD IN FM THE EAST. THE HIEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION. FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FM THE HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK
CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S
TUE...WED AND THU...WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE
END OR THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE BUILDING
IN OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. THE EMWF BRINGS
THE RIDGE OR BERMUDA HIGH IN FASTER SHUNTING THE BEST POPS TO THE
WEST WHERE THE GFS IS SLOWER BUILDING THE RIDGE IN ALLOWING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN
MORE ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S AND WARMER ON
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR A WARMUP INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WILL CARRY ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL/AFTN- EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
SUNDAY (20% POPS) EAST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID- UPR 60S TO LWR
70S. THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT WAST AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. THIS COULD
BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS OF 05Z. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE
TO A MOISTENED LOW LEVEL FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL. ALSO WINDS HAVE A
FAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH IFR
CIGS FORECAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT ECG AND PHF.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MID MRNG AND LOOK FOR SCT TSTMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTN WITH HIGHER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN OR TSTMS
EXCEPT AT ECG. HAVE PERSISTENT LGT RAIN AT ECG AFT 00Z PER LAV
GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVNG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY MVFR/IFR WILL BE PSBL EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE DECREASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KT OR LESS. SEAS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILT TO 2 TO 3 FEET...BUT WILL BE
DECREASING BACK TO A SOLID 2 FEET THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC WITH EASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
WITH THE PATTERN SLOW TO CHANGE THIS WEEK EXPECT A STEADY NE TO E
FLOW ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 3 TO OCCASIONALLY 4 FEET NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH TO THE NC WATERS SEAS WILL
RUN MAINLY AROUND 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FEET.
WINDS CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. SCA CRITERIA WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RIC AND ORF HAD RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS SUNDAY. SEE RER`S FOR THESE
AND THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND AT RIC ORF SBY AND
ECG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
STALLED THERE INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SE
VA/NE NC. THERE IS STILL SOME ELEVATED CAPE PER RAP ANALYSIS...SO A
FEW EMBEDDED CELLS WITH INTENSE LIGHTING COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.
OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TOWARD MORNING WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FELL TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 70 TO 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO THU WITH MAINLY
SCTD AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL WASHOUT OR
DISSIPATE DURING THU...AS HIER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND BERMUDA HI PRES
BLD IN FM THE EAST. THE HIEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION. FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FM THE HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK
CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S
TUE...WED AND THU...WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE
END OR THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE BUILDING
IN OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. THE EMWF BRINGS
THE RIDGE OR BERMUDA HIGH IN FASTER SHUNTING THE BEST POPS TO THE
WEST WHERE THE GFS IS SLOWER BUILDING THE RIDGE IN ALLOWING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN
MORE ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S AND WARMER ON
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR A WARMUP INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WILL CARRY ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL/AFTN- EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
SUNDAY (20% POPS) EAST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID- UPR 60S TO LWR
70S. THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT WAST AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. THIS COULD
BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AT RIC PHF ORF AND ECG TERMINALS. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOWER VSBY
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR. EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBY
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH COULD
CAUSE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE DECREASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KT OR LESS. SEAS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILT TO 2 TO 3 FEET...BUT WILL BE
DECREASING BACK TO A SOLID 2 FEET THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC WITH EASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
WITH THE PATTERN SLOW TO CHANGE THIS WEEK EXPECT A STEADY NE TO E
FLOW ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 3 TO OCCASIONALLY 4 FEET NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH TO THE NC WATERS SEAS WILL
RUN MAINLY AROUND 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FEET.
WINDS CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. SCA CRITERIA WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RIC AND ORF HAD RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS SUNDAY. SEE RER`S FOR THESE
AND THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND AT RIC ORF SBY AND
ECG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OUR INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED SPUR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THAT PUSHED FROM NEAR ISLE ROYALE TO LAKE
MI...IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CWA. THE RUC DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB AT
PIN POINTING THE STORM COVERAGE INITIALLY. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER /ALBEIT WEAKER/ SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TIMING AGAIN AROUND DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SCT TO ISO TSRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. COVERAGE WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. ML CAP
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-500J/KG. THE NAM IS MORE
FOCUSED WEST AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE GFS IS HINTING AT A S CENTRAL
AND ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A
CONCERN WITH AN TS THAT DEVELOP...DCAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND OR
ABOVE 1000J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN TODAY...AROUND 11-12KFT...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE TUES
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SHIFT E TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK
THOUGH...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPS SUPPRESSED TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
A FEW 90S TRYING TO PUSH INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LKS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LKS DURING THAT TIME. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE
NE...SHOULDN/T SEE ANY SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA FOR WED THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BUT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW/MID
LVL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WED/THURS. ON BOTH DAYS...BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W...WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE SFC HIGH.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN BOTH WED/THURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT IN SRN ONTARIO
TRIES TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD IT OFF.
FLOW BEGINS TO MERGE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMER H850
TEMPS TO THE SW TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE WEAK ENERGY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD SEE
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OVERALL...NO
APPRECIABLE SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SOME FOG COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED AT KIWD LAST NIGHT. THERE WAS A LITTLE RAIN NEAR KSAW
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION THERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS POINT. ISOLD CONVECTION
IS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DO DEVELOP...KSAW HAS
THE BETTER CHC OF BEING AFFECTED GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OTHER THAN WITH ANY TS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS LS...HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 25KTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EDGE SE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
854 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS ERN WY IS MOVING EAST FASTER THAN
ANY OF THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE. ALL MODELS ARE EITHER SILENT OR
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES VERY FAR EAST INTO NEB.
THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS WY/SCNTL MT THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS. OTHERWISE VFR ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THE FIRST IS
PUSHING INTO WRN ND AND THE SECOND MOVING INTO SWRN MT PER WV
IMAGERY AND RAP PVU FIELDS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SCT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE PUSHING
EWD. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM MCK TO VTN. NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIES IN SFC THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT). UPPER FEATURE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE BUT DIFFER
IN THE HANDLING OF ASSOCIATED UPPER PV FEATURES AND RESULTING
CONVECTION AS THE SFC REFLECTION /COLD FRONT/ MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER PV MAX AND HENCE BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE NAM HAS AN
UPPER PV MAX MOVING INTO NWRN NEBRASKA WHICH SERVES TO PROMOTE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BELIEVING THE GFS
IDEA IS AT LEAST PARTIAL DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS WOULD
YIELD CHC POPS ALONG AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. FRONT WILL BE MEETING
RESISTENCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DIURNAL PLAINS LLJ THRU THURS MORNING
AND PRE-EXISTING HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE....SO LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPE DISTRIBUTION IS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR VERTICALLY SO
WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXPECT UPDRAFTS WILL BE PULSE
TYPE EXCEPT WHERE ORGANIZATION CAN BE SUSTAINED...SUCH AS CLOSE TO
THE FRONT AND WHERE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS DICTATE. RESULT
SHOULD BE LIMTED LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SVR
WIND GUSTS.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE STATE.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND IT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF/GEM/FIM MODELS...AND MANY OF
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRID VALUES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD MID WEEK...POSSIBLY USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
AVIATION...18Z TAF FOR KLBF AND KVTN.
VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH BASED
CU THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
KVTN-KLBF BUT SHOULDNT GET BEYOND SCT. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PASSAGE EXPECTED AFTER
18Z...WHEN ISOLD TO SCT TSRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR KVTN...BUT
AGAIN AFTER 12/18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
618 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS WY/SCNTL MT THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS. OTHERWISE VFR ALL AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THE FIRST IS
PUSHING INTO WRN ND AND THE SECOND MOVING INTO SWRN MT PER WV
IMAGERY AND RAP PVU FIELDS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SCT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE PUSHING
EWD. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM MCK TO VTN. NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIES IN SFC THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT). UPPER FEATURE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE BUT DIFFER
IN THE HANDLING OF ASSOCIATED UPPER PV FEATURES AND RESULTING
CONVECTION AS THE SFC REFLECTION /COLD FRONT/ MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER PV MAX AND HENCE BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE NAM HAS AN
UPPER PV MAX MOVING INTO NWRN NEBRASKA WHICH SERVES TO PROMOTE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BELIEVING THE GFS
IDEA IS AT LEAST PARTIAL DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS WOULD
YIELD CHC POPS ALONG AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. FRONT WILL BE MEETING
RESISTENCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DIURNAL PLAINS LLJ THRU THURS MORNING
AND PRE-EXISTING HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE....SO LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPE DISTRIBUTION IS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR VERTICALLY SO
WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXPECT UPDRAFTS WILL BE PULSE
TYPE EXCEPT WHERE ORGANIZATION CAN BE SUSTAINED...SUCH AS CLOSE TO
THE FRONT AND WHERE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS DICTATE. RESULT
SHOULD BE LIMTED LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SVR
WIND GUSTS.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE STATE.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND IT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF/GEM/FIM MODELS...AND MANY OF
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRID VALUES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD MID WEEK...POSSIBLY USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
AVIATION...18Z TAF FOR KLBF AND KVTN.
VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH BASED
CU THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
KVTN-KLBF BUT SHOULDNT GET BEYOND SCT. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PASSAGE EXPECTED AFTER
18Z...WHEN ISOLD TO SCT TSRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR KVTN...BUT
AGAIN AFTER 12/18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS LATEST
RADAR RETURNS INDICATING SOME LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CIGS TO RETURN BY
10/08Z...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE GROUND AS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LIGHT GRADIENT...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN 10KTS
OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING
RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE
MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND HRRR OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PERHAPS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AM NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING...BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK DIABATIC HEATING...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST 00Z-03Z AS A RESULT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR WEST. WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOSE
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TUESDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG PRODUCTION PRIMARILY THROUGH LOW
LYING AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT 15
HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT
25-30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PLACING US WITHIN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE CWA TO BE VULNERABLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF ENERGY
THAT MAY ROUND THE RIDGE AND GIVE US PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. FRANKLY...TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN OVERALL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TOWARD A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SURE ENOUGH...MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS PROBABLE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT NECESSARILY MAKE THE TEMPERATURE A WHOLE
LOT COOLER FOR OUR WEATHER AS A TROUGH WOULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP IN
THE WEST AND A RESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
THIS WOULD MEAN A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE GENERALLY
EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS THIS MAY OPEN UP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND/OR SOUTH PACIFIC.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STEADILY CLIMB AS WELL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1012 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
LOWERED EVENING POPS FOR MOST LOCALES AS PER RADAR TRENDS...EXCEPT
FOR PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY AND LOWERED MAJORITY OF AREA A
LITTLE LESS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE POST MIDNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WERE DROPPED A BIT FOR SOME LOCALES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WORKED
OVER MOST BY STORMS/RAINFALL. ZONES ALREADY OUT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...559 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FOR AVIATION NEXT 24 HRS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
TSRA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE KFMN AND KABQ. STORMS MOVING SW OFF
THE COLORADO PLATEAU WILL SLIDE ACROSS KFMN BEFORE SUNSET WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE GFS SHOWS STORM COMPLEXES OVER CENTRAL NM AS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION
WITH IMPACTS AT KABQ FROM STORMS/RAIN THRU AROUND 06Z. THE LONGEST
DURATION IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO LCL HEAVY PRECIP
WILL BE AT KROW. HAVE CLEARED MOST TAFS OF PRECIP BY SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL SCENARIO IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME WITH LOWEST
CONFIDENCE ALONG THE TX STATE LINE WHERE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OUTLINES MOUNTAIN
RANGES QUITE WELL. STORM MOTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT LOBE SPINNING BTWN GALLUP AND GRANTS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ERN PLAINS. PLENTY OF BOUNDARY INTERACTION
YET TO OCCUR OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DURING MID-AFTERNOON
INDICATING MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE CAPE TO
TAP...LIKELY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS SHOULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING
LATER THIS EVENING IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GLORIETA MESA
CANYON INTO SANTA FE...AND QUITE TRICKY IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SET UP...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE/MOVE
EWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER...REMAINS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES TO MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS. BEST CHANCES
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS WWD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SEWD
TO THE SACRAMENTO AND GILA MOUNTAIN RANGES ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH ERN NM. THIS SFC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE IN THESE AREAS...AND
WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE NAM AND GFS GENERATING
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY....PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE GILA...INCLUDING THE LITTLE BEAR AND
WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCARS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN PUSHING SLIGHTLY SEWD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS WEDNESDAY. A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE SOUTH. THE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SPREADS SOUTH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE UT/CO BORDER TAPING DRIER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. UPPER
HIGH CENTER PARKS OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST.
33
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND
REPLENISHED MOISTURE IN WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THE STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST... AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS TO THIS STEERING
FLOW REGIME. A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF GRANTS HAS RESULTED
IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NEARLY STATIONARY OR VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS IS ONE AREA THAT WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
A POTENTIALLY LARGE AND ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND SLOWLY ROLL TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES
WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED EASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS THIS NIGHT.
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND WEST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL. AT THE SAME TIME...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS...A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHTLY
DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
A FAIRLY STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO END OF WEEK PERIOD
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...WITH
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WRAPPING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND AS A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLT ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATNIG THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HWOEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. I SEE SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH CLD BASES 6 TO 7 KFT WITH JUST
ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF ITH.
AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. I SEE LITTLE IF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KELM GOING BY PERSISTENCE OF WHICH THERE WAS LITTLE FOG THERE THIS
MRNG. CONFIDENCE LEVEL WAS MEDIUM AT THIS. IT WILL DEPEND ON IF
MUCH RAIN FALLS AT KELM. REST OF TAFS SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR WED
AM...SEE SCT CU FORMING WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND AS A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLT ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER
THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 HEIGHTS RISE AS MEAN TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING
A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. RAIN FREE WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE DUE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ESSENTIALLY A MID
LEVEL CAP DUE TO FAIRLY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
DRY AND SEASONABLE TO START THEN WARMING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY TO MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AS A TROF
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP WITH MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A DECENT SHORT WAVE FOR SAT AFTN SO THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC
OF RAIN FOR THE WHOLE WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW AND MID 60S. LATE MONDAY MIGHT A SHORT WAVE COMES IN AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF GETS TO MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. I SEE SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH CLD BASES 6 TO 7 KFT WITH JUST
ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF ITH.
AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. I SEE LITTLE IF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KELM GOING BY PERSISTENCE OF WHICH THERE WAS LITTLE FOG THERE THIS
MRNG. CONFIDENCE LEVEL WAS MEDIUM AT THIS. IT WILL DEPEND ON IF
MUCH RAIN FALLS AT KELM. REST OF TAFS SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR WED
AM...SEE SCT CU FORMING WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NC/SC
BORDER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ELSEWHERE
SHOWERS HAVE LONG SINCE ENDED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO REFLECT THAT. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
FRONT SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM WEST TO EAST. AROUND
07Z THE 21Z HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW THE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN SC MOVING NNE TOWARD CENTRAL NC. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z 250 MB ANALYSIS...WHICH SHOWS A JET STREAK JUST
TO THE WSW OF NC AND AND THE 700 MB SHEAR AXIS AND POSSIBLE
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT AT 850 MB. THUS...HAVE IN GENERAL THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER POPS AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM...
850 MILLIBAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY IN SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
AROUND AN OFFSHORE HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND AMPLE CLOUDINESS... EXPECT ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT... RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 30
PERCENT. LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...
WILL SEE GRADUAL DRYING AND A WARMING TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP RIDGING BUILDS WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT SHEAR AXIS WILL STILL BE
WRAPPED AROUND THE RIDGE...PRODUCING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE...50 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...
EXPECTING OUR LAST DAY OF HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S.
RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH A
WARM...NOT HOT... AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE... WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY... EDGING UP TO THE VERY HIGH 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY...
AND IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGE OF AIR
MASS IS IN SIGHT... SO PERSISTENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70
TO 75 RANGE WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL CAP AND DAMPEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... WITH LARGELY DIURNAL CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE
DIURNAL POPS WILL BE GRADUATED HIGHER TOWARDS THE WEST WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD DRIFT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES SOME SLIGHT DEGREE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM WEDNESDAY...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS OUTFLOW SHIFTS
SOUTH...COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
POSSIBLY HELPING TO PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE FURTHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS. VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS...IN SOME LOCATIONS IFR
ESPECIALLY DURING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A HEAVIER SHOWER...
SHOULD TURN MOSTLY VFR DURING THE MID EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
TENDENCY TOWARD AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS...AND LOCALLY IFR
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD AND KFAY...OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AFTER 12Z TO RESULT IN
THE EXPECTATION OF VFR CONDITIONS AS A RULE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 14Z. MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DAILY FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO CONDITIONS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK... BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ALONG WITH SEASONABLE COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IN AN AIR MASS DOMINATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS A RESULT
OF EARLIER AND SOME ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION. AS THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED AND MOVED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...THE
OVERALL INSTABILITY HAS WANED...WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
THE HIGH DCAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY HAVING EXITED CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN WAS THE PRIMARY LATE EVENING THREAT...IN
PARTICULAR WITH ONGOING URBAN FLASH FLOODING AROUND GREENSBORO.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE 850MB
FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALSO SETTLE SOUTH TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER BY
MORNING...WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THESE
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...MOVING
EAST. IN FACT...THE LATEST RAP FORECAST APPEARS TO INDICATE THE
ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...LIKELY ALONG OUTFLOW WITH FURTHER CELLS EXPECTED AS
OUTFLOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE 850MB FRONT. WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MORE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH
DEW POINTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70...BUT HAVE LOWERED MINS ON
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. -DJF
LIKELY POPS WILL RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH HIGHER NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MUCH REDUCED
FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...LOWER TEMPERATURES...AND MUCH LOWER
CAPE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 85 TO 90 DEGREES. -RAH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD...
PRIMARILY IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE
ABLE TO PROGRESS. THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 850MB FRONT
GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND
DRIER AIR BEING ABLE TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVER TIME. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE 850MB FRONT BASICALLY ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
ABOUT U.S. 64...WITH A MUCH MORE MOIST AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT HAS MADE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SO FAR...AND
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS DUE TO THE LATEST
TRENDS AND SEASONAL EXPECTATIONS. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...FOLLOWING
THE GFS...THE 850MB FRONT IS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 64...WITH WEAK 850MB WAVES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST...WITH GENERALLY SLENDER
CAPE...AND LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEING ON THE
FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT 250MB
JET...AND MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOTED
PARTICULARLY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS FAIRLY LOW...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN 100 OR 200J/KG AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...BUT -10C
TO -30C CAPE AT TIMES REACHES AS HIGH AS 500J/KG OR SO. WHILE
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
EVEN TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER TWO INCHES...
AND THE NAM FORECAST MUCH LOWER...AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR 1.75 INCHES...
AN AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.75 AND TWO INCHES WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DURING THE PERIOD...FORECAST THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE
850MB FRONT...STILL LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT WITH LESSER RAW PROBABILITIES COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
THE HIGHEST 850MB THETA-E VALUES AS FORECAST BY THE GFS ARE ALSO
ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...STILL RELATIVELY HIGH FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
HIGHEST APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED A
COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...
TENDED TO FORECAST MINIMUM VALUES NEAR THE HIGHEST GUIDANCE...AND
MAXIMUM VALUES NEARER THE COOLER GUIDANCE. BIAS-CORRECTED
INFORMATION FROM GUIDANCE HAD A GOOD APPROACH IT SEEMS AND LEANED
TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
DURING THIS PERIOD...CONSENSUS OF THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. LOWER HEIGHTS...AND DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
TRANSITION TO AN AIR MASS WITH GREATER HEIGHTS AND DIMINISHING
MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER TIME SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
MODEST REDUCTION IN 850MB THETA-E ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...DAY TO DAY...OVERALL 0-6KM
SHEAR DIMINISHES TO CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES IN SINGLE DIGITS KNOTS
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAKING STORM ORGANIZATION INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT OVER TIME.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTED THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CHANCES OVER TIME. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THAT TREND...
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES DEFINITELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WHEN HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE LOWEST...MOISTURE APPEARS GREATEST...AND LIFT
IS BEST WITH THE REMNANT FRONT OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THIS FORECAST
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH DEEP
CONVECTION AT ALL GIVEN THE STABILITY AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
MODEL FORECASTS. GFSX MOS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
EACH DAY IN TERMS OF CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND AS A RESULT AM
RELUCTANT TO MAKE A STARK CHANGE FROM SOLID CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FROM THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DAY TO DAY...AND EACH DAY THE RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
LIE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE HIGH ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST AND OVERALL MOISTURE TENDS TO BE HIGHER WEST.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS ALOFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HOURS OF SUN
INCREASES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO WARM. BY SUNDAY...
1000-850MB THICKNESSES...ALONG WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...FORECAST
HIGHS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK AT LEAST INTO
THE LOWER 90S...AND MID 90S COULD RETURN TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
PIEDMONT FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY...MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD
RISE BACK TO NEAR 100 PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND U.S. 1 AND
INTERSTATE 95. EARLIER...80S SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 SATURDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SANDHILLS...UNDER MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
FREQUENTLY ADVERSE AND HIGHLY VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT INT/GSO AND FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. OF LARGER CONCERN ARE THE AREAS
OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NC. EACH FORECAST SITE IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODIC SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BASED BELOW 1
THOUSAND FEET AGL THROUGH 13Z-14Z. COVERAGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE GREATEST AT 09Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUD SHOULD LIFT AND
PARTIALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR WHILE VSBYS GO TO VFR BY 15Z... THEN
EXPECT BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO SLOWLY TREND TO VFR BY 18Z-19Z AT ALL
LOCATIONS. BUT ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...
AND ALL CENTRAL NC FORECAST SITES WILL SEE AN EQUAL (HIGH) CHANCE OF
SLOW-MOVING MEANDERING STORMS FROM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TOWARD THE EAST...
HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL FORM ON OUTFLOWS... YIELDING
OVERALL ERRATIC MOVEMENTS. THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE EXPANSIVE
AND EVOLVING... AND THEREFORE THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE SAFELY
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z. AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD (AFTER 06Z)... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR
A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING... AND NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME AND
EVENING STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY... HOWEVER THE RISK OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER EACH
LATE-NIGHT THROUGH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED. LATEST HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WEST/NORTH
TODAY... BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION AT ANY SITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES WITH THERMAL FIELDS. THE NAM SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
WITH THE GFS TOO COOL...SO A COMPROMISE SHOULD WORK WELL WITH
TEMPS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO CENTRAL/NE ND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG...BUT FORCING REMAINS WEAK. THERE HAS BEEN A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THIS SHEAR AXIS
THOUGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FIRING
ATTM BETWEEN BIS/JMS. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LOWER POPS INTO THE WEST
THIS MORNING PERHAPS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS ABOUT
3-4C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK LLJ OF ABOUT 20KT AND 850MB CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET WITH
A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS WITH SLOWLY INCREASING THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS.
ON WED...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND BY AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NORTH AND
WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH INCREASING 925MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +30C. THE NAM SFC TEMPS ARE INTO THE MID 90S IN
THE SOUTH...BUT WON/T GO THIS WARM BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A HOT DAY. PROJECTED HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE INTO THE MID 90S FOR
MOST AREAS...SO IF DEWPOINTS RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED...OR TEMPS ARE
A BIT WARMER...THEN WE COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR THU...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND
EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. MLCAPES
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY THU EVENING. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL EXIST NEAR ANY STORMS. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
PRECLUDE TOO MUCH SEVERE WEATHER...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN
FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND SOME KIND OF SFC BOUNDARY. SLOW STORM
MOTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
GROUND FOR MOST AREAS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING ISSUES BUT ALWAYS
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS
INCLUDED A 5% SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH ABOVE THINKING.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY...
DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A SLOW MOVING
SHORT-WAVE ROTATES AROUND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SOUTHWEST CONUS
MONSOONAL RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CRASHES ONSHORE...BUT EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...BUT WILL
INTRODUCE 20-30 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANY WEAK WAVE ALOFT
MAY PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN AIRMASS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AIDED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING DOWN THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
INDICATES THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE MID LEVEL CAPPING IS NOT AS STRONG AS THAT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. THUS INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOOKING AT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER AT WILLISTON
06-10 UTC. CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING A MENTION OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ONLY INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CREEP UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH A RICH PLUME
OF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY GUST-FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NRN MTS. IT HAD TOUCHED OFF NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AS IT MOVED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND SRN MTS. IT MUST HAVE
LACKED MOISTURE AND/OR EXISTING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
TO MAKE THINGS GO IN THE CENTRAL MTS. THE SLOW MOVING/BACK-
BUILDING CELLS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT NO REPORTS
OF FLOODING RECEIVED AS OF YET. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHC
OR ISOLD POP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR PLACES
GENERALLY TO THE N OF THE CURRENT FEW CELLS OF CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE LACK OF HEATING SHOULD HELP THINGS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE UNLIKE LAST EVENING. AGAIN...THE RUC HAS BEEN VERY NICE
WITH THE CONVERGENCE AND QPF FIELDS THIS EVENING. IT ALSO POINTS
TO A GENERAL DISSIPATION - BUT HANGS ONTO SOME SHRA IN THE SERN
COS - OF ALL PLACES WHERE STABILIZATION SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY.
TEMPS ALL ON TRACK FOR MINS IN THE 50S NORTH AND L60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SLOW MOVING 5H SHEAR AXIS LIFTS ONLY SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY
TO BE BISECTING PENNSYLVANIA FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A SIMILAR
SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASING SFC HEATING AND CAPES IN THE 300 TO
600 J/KG RANGE ACCORDING TO NAM12 BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE
MAIN MOISTURE SURGE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DEEP
LAYER PW VALUES AROUND 1.25" PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY...
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINERS. 850 MB FLOW IS STILL
QUITE WEAK SO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LAND LOCKED FEATURES MAY
AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MDL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THE S/W TROF WEAKENING AS
IT PROGRESSES EWD FM THE GRT LKS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SHOULD LEAVE THE REGION COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PLUME OF
HIGH PWATS WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD ALONG THE APPLCHNS AHEAD OF THE
H5 TROF AND AROUND PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FORCING ALOFT SO IT IS HARD TO PIN-POINT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN. CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE FAVORING THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO TRICKLE ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THUS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND
GUIDANCE FAVORING SUNDAY WHICH IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS MDL BLEND. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT VERY BROAD GIVEN CURRENT INFORMATION.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN SAT-SUN
BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TSTMS AGAIN LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GUST FRONT
THAT HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 AT
00Z...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TAFS FROM KJST-KUNV-KIPT. THESE TSTMS
WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRI...BRINGING EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU AND FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. ISOLD AFTN AND EVE TSRA POSSIBLE.
SAT-SUN...SCT-NUMEROUS MAINLY PM THUNDERSTORMS...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS AND CIGS LIKELY AT TIMES.
MON...MVFR TO VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
945 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ROUGHLY
ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR MEMPHIS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. 12/18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THE 23Z HRRR IS
FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE
MS TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE HRRR SEEMS ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT POPS 20 PERCENT...LEAVING
LIKELY POP ACROSS NE MS. WILL ALSO TRIM BACK THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPS AND SKY LOOK FINE.
SJM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN EAST ARKANSAS WHERE THINNER CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE.
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE FROM
NORTH LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WE MAY END UP
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT BETWEEN EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER SUNRISE...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND RESULTING
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WEST.
FRIDAY RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS A TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT
ORIENTATION MUCH OF THE AREA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...OR WE COULD SEE A SITUATION WHERE THE EASTERN
AREAS GET A NICE SOAKING RAIN WHILE FARTHER WEST IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WHERE RAIN IS MORE NEEDED...SHOWERS ARE LESS ABUNDANT.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
NOT AS BULLISH WITH THIS SOLUTION...ACTUALLY KEEPING THE FRONT
WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER EVEN THE TROUGH ALOFT WITHOUT THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER FRIDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
LOWERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 82 71 88 / 50 80 40 50
MKL 70 81 70 87 / 40 80 50 50
JBR 71 84 70 89 / 20 60 30 30
TUP 72 83 70 88 / 70 90 50 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
926 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE RATHER ANEMIC WITH RAIN
PUSHING NORTHWARD OUT OF ALABAMA, BOTH RUC AND WRF MODELS STILL SHOW
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE, SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL LOOK AT GRIDS TO SEE IF ANY
VARIABLES NEED SOME TWEAKING. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1151 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH THE
TAF PD. THUS...UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDE SPREAD RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD 12Z. AMENDMENTS
FOR CKV AND CSV WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED AS MANUAL DIAL IN IS
STILL REQUIRED UFN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE....MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS MORNING AND
DUMPED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER SOME AREAS...RADAR ESTIMATES
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOP OUT AROUND 2.5 INCHES. IN THE PAST
HOUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE SEEN SLIGHTLY MORE SUNSHINE
THAN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE AND ARE REPORTING TEMPS IN
THE MID-80S CURRENTLY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND A DECREASE FOR THE NASHVILLE
AREA AND NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE....MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS MORNING AND
DUMPED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER SOME AREAS...RADAR ESTIMATES
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOP OUT AROUND 2.5 INCHES. IN THE PAST
HOUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE SEEN SLIGHTLY MORE SUNSHINE
THAN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE AND ARE REPORTING TEMPS IN
THE MID-80S CURRENTLY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND A DECREASE FOR THE NASHVILLE
AREA AND NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE....MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS MORNING AND
DUMPED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER SOME AREAS...RADAR ESTIMATES
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOP OUT AROUND 2.5 INCHES. IN THE PAST
HOUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE SEEN SLIGHTLY MORE SUNSHINE
THAN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE AND ARE REPORTING TEMPS IN
THE MID-80S CURRENTLY. THUS THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 87 71 87 70 / 60 50 50 60
CLARKSVILLE 86 69 88 69 / 60 50 50 50
CROSSVILLE 83 67 83 68 / 60 50 60 60
COLUMBIA 88 71 87 70 / 60 60 60 60
LAWRENCEBURG 87 71 87 70 / 60 60 60 60
WAVERLY 86 70 87 69 / 60 50 50 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
904 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS EVENING HAVE UPDATED GRIDS
AND ZONE WORDING FOR ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER...AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
ANOTHER STORY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER THE PERSISTENT TREND. HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE DID QUITE WELL LAST NIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF TSRA ALONG
THE COAST. TONIGHT THE HRRR DEVELOPS STORMS FURTHER INLAND AS DOES
THE NEW 00Z NAM12. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE STORMS SHOULD FIRE
UP AROUND 07-08Z CLOSER TO METRO AREA THAN LAST NIGHT. STILL NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION TO REFINE THE SIZE OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE EXTREMELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH 00Z KLCH PWAT OF 2.05 INCH AND KSHV 2.27 INCH.
BLENDED PWAT PRODUCT AGREES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT AIR POOLING
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH IN CWA...BUT IT`S ALL HIGH. SATURATED
GROUNDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FROM RECENT RAINS...CONTINUATION OF
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS PRUDENT DESPITE THIS TEMPORARY LULL.
FEW SMALL TEMP AND DEW POINT CHANGES AS A FEW INLAND AREAS RUNNING
COOLER THAN FORECAST. 04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
AVIATION...
SINCE MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
THEN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT VCSH
AND VCTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 00Z TAFS. THE EXACT LOCATION AND AXIS
OF DEVELOPING ACTIVITY REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT...SO AVIATION FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN/NEAR THE STORMS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST 1/3 OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA A
BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THIS
RAIN WILL INITIATE - WHETHER IT BE ALONG THE COAST OR FURTHER
INLAND. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS WITH EXCELLENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE SPEED
CONVERGENCE FCST ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH 2.2-2.4"
PW`S.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SOME TRAINING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE RIVER...CREEK AND STREET FLOODING.
THE FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4PM THURS.
SEE THAT PRODUCT FOR MORE SHORT TERM WX DETAILS. POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AFFECTS AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN GETTING HIT HARD IN THE PAST 18 HOURS.
TROF AXIS/WEAKNESS LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MIGHT DIMINISH A TOUCH THEY SHOULD STILL
HOVER AROUND 2" INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEEL THAT WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE DECENT COVERAGE - PROBABLY BECOMING MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
- INTO NEXT WEEK SO NUDGE AFTN POPS UPWARDS. MODEL TRENDS HAS
BEEN FOR DECREASING POPS ABOUT T+48 WHICH STILL HASN`T HAPPENED...SO
GENERAL PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO UNTIL SOMETHING
CHANGES. 47
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 89 73 / 70 60 40 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 86 74 89 73 / 70 70 40 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 85 78 88 78 / 70 70 40 50 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1025 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NE UT AT MID-AFTERNOON REACHES FAR
NW CO THIS EVENING PER RAP MODEL. HIGH-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
PRECIP WITH IT...CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIER AIR SHOWN THERE ON THE
19Z PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS. BUT A BIT MORE VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN LONGER LIVED STORMS THERE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY APPEARED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...AS
SOME DID TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
ANY STORM BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITED A MORE PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THU WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH SOME LOWER VALLEYS IN ERN UT AND WEST-
CENTRAL CO AROUND THE 100 DEG MARK. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN SLIDING EAST
LATE THU. MODELS HAVE IT CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
BY FRI MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST FROM EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT TO EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO.
THEREFORE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
AND DEEPEN ON SATURDAY...FOR A RETURN TO A WETTER REGIME. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE PACIFIC LOW AND
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...FOR A MORE ENERGETIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MAY KEEP
CONVECTION ONGOING OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM TO SOUTHEAST CO...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ONLY ENHANCE CONVECTION. BY MIDWEEK THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS IN GENERAL EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVIER RAIN. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG OVER THE FAR NORTH MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BUT
LITTLE RAIN. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF THESE DRY STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH SOME STORMS OVER THIS SAME PORTION
OF THE AREA PRODUCING BETTER RAINFALL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OF THE WET VARIETY.
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ON RECENT BURN SCARS. ANY GOOD RAINS OVER THESE SCARS
COULD PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOWS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
203 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WITH CONVECTION IS OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF TERMINAL KAPF WHICH WAS ASSIGNED
VCSH AT 06Z BUT COULD BE AMENDED TO VCTS IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THIS AREA. TERMINAL KAPF COULD ALSO HAVE
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALL
EAST COAST TERMINALS HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A PERSIST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST COAST
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012/
UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A VERY NICE SPIN OVER
SOUTH FL. THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED THE DRAMATIC SWITCH IN
THE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL
LOW CENTER WITH WINDS YESTERDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST, THIS MORNING
SOUTH, AND THIS EVENING DUE WESTERLY. THIS SPIN NOW LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. MODELS SHOWS THIS LOW STRETCHING
OUT AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT-THU. FOR TONIGHT, WITH LESSER
CONVERGENCE, WE EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC, BUT
KEEPS IT MAINLY OFF THE COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE STILL ONSHORE UP THROUGH 3K FT...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME ATLANTIC COASTAL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. HAVE GONE
WITH 20 POPS INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND 30 POPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012/
AVIATION...
THE LATEST WRF AND HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALONG THE EAST COAST LOCATIONS. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF
INDICATED THE BEST COVERAGE SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND
9-10Z. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCSH
THROUGH THESE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND AND AT APF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SLOWLY ERODING. APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO
THE CAUSE OF THIS OUTBREAK, BUT AT ANY RATE THE MODELS WERE
CLUELESS. IN FACT, THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAPID REFRESH
DID NOT RECOGNIZE ANYTHING WAS OCCURRING AND NEITHER THE GFS NOR
THE NAM FORECASTED WELL WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS. OF COURSE, THE
PERSISTENT DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WAS A MAJOR PLAYER
ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES. THIS ALL INTERACTED WITH A
TROF NOW IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT EXTENDS FROM THE SFC TO 70H, SOME
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE THAT
SET UP ALONG THE SE CST AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED OFFSHORE
AROUND 06-07Z AND INTERACTED WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE.
HAVING SAID ALL OF THIS, THE VERY SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH CAN THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS UNDER PLACE EVEN THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CLOUDS NOW RAPIDLY CLEARING. IN FACT, EVEN THE AREAS OF
OUR NW INTERIOR HAVE BEEN SUNNY BUT THEY ALSO MAY REMAIN UNDER SOME
SORT OF SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. BUT CURRENT
PLAN IS TO STILL INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS
AS ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
COLLIER COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING.
THE DEEP EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE
BOTH AT MID LEVELS AND AT THE SFC REMAINS ACROSS N FL AND STRETCHING
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE POP GUIDANCE AS
BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE, ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TUTT LIKE FEATURE THAT IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. A DRY SLOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROF COULD LOWER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TEMPORARILY BUT THEN AS THE TROF CONTINUES INTO
THE GULF, HIGH PWAT`S WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA. SO BASICALLY,
IT APPEARS THAT AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST FLOW TO WEAKEN AND CONVECTION
WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND GO BACK TO THE MORE
PRONOUNCED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING VARIETY CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND.
MARINE...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 KT OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 89 78 / 40 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 89 79 / 40 30 40 20
MIAMI 90 77 89 78 / 50 30 40 20
NAPLES 89 75 91 75 / 50 30 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
218 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A VERY MUGGY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
2.19 INCHES ON OUR 00Z SOUNDING. A LOT OF INTERESTING BOUNDARIES
ARE SHOWING UP ON OUR RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED IS A NEARLY LINEAR CONVERGENCE AXIS ABOUT A MILE OFF
OUR COASTLINE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAND. THE OTHER IS A FINE LINE
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES...
APPARENTLY A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THAT JUST RECENTLY
BECAME VISIBLE ON RADAR. A COUPLE SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS LATTER BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
SUMMERVILLE AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE MOULTRIE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THIS WESTERN BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY CONVERGES WITH THE MARITIME CONVERGENCE AXIS IN A FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP
ALONG THE SC/GA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
AREA WHERE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. WE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH 30-40 POPS IN THE TRI-COUNTY
AND 20-30 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER JUST TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WHILE A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS
ALONG THE COASTLINE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES...INDICATIVE OF ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITHIN
INITIALLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOUND OVER THE WATERS
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. AS HEATING AND INSTABILITY INCREASE INLAND
BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE LINGERING
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS ABUNDANT RESIDUAL MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING TO SUPPORT POPS IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE.
GFS AND NAM INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LACKING ANY NOTABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNDER A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS HEATING/INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL THEN TRANSITION TO THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...MAINLY OCCURRING DURING THE FAVORED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITHIN THIS MORE SEASONAL PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP LAYER OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH
DEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODELS INDICATING RATHER MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BELOW 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE
LARGE SCALE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO POINT TOWARD A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL SOON COLLIDE ACROSS THE KCHS TERMINAL SO WE HAVE
VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK. RECENT CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE THE EXPLANATION FOR RECENT BKN003 CEILING AT CHS.
NOT SURE IF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MUCH LONGER AS SHOWERS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT MVFR COULD VERY POSSIBLY PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY GO UP LATE THIS MORNING AT EITHER
TERMINAL ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HARD TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO LESS THAN 6 HRS SO WE JUST MAINTAINED THE VICINITY
TSTMS AT BOTH SITES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. EXPECT DECREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.MARINE...
A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS 3
TO 4 FEET OR LESS. WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. GENERALLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...JRL/79
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
14Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH CENTER OF RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. RUC 1.5 PVU ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL SMALL
PV ANOMALIES MOVING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. 12Z RAOBS CONTINUED THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING NOTED AT DNR AROUND H65.
AT THE SFC...1020MB HIGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.
REST OF TODAY...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS COLORADO. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN MINIMAL CHANGES OBSERVED ON
SOUNDINGS DO NOT THINK THINGS WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TEMP
WISE. WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK CINH TODAY...HAVE
DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP GIVING WARMING ALOFT NOTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THINK DRY FORECAST STILL WARRANTED.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INDUCING AN AREA OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON EDGE OF H7 THERMAL RIDGE. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SMALL POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA...ELEVATED CINH
PROFILES REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND HAVE DOUBTS THAT OVERALL WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR
STORMS. PV ANOMALY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...WITH SFC FRONT LAGGING WELL BEHIND IT. GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND BEST NEAR SFC FORCING ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT THERE WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALSO MAKE IT DOUBTFUL
THAT ANYTHING INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
CWA BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...HAVE DELAYED PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL AFTER
21Z IN THE NORTH AND REMOVED THEM ELSEWHERE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT TO
HOLD UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN CWA WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW WITH MID AND UPPER 90S EXPECTED
ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE AND
GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR THIS
WEEKEND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.
IN THE NEARTERM...AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION THURSDAY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE BUT HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCES OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WORKING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADVECTING IN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS DRIER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS MAYBE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN WHICH DAYS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT HOW THE UPPER PATTERN ULTIMATELY
EVOLVES.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM ALL MODELS SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN HOLD IN THE 30-32C RANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEREFORE TREND
BACK INTO THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT A REPEAT OF THE RECORD HEAT FROM LATE JUNE WILL
RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR KGLD AND KMCK
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY VERY HIGH BASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS LACKING UNTIL AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW
SINKING SOUTH OVER EASTERN OK AND THE OZARK REGION. A FEW SCATTERED
MID CLOUDS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. UNLIKE
WED THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FEATURE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE KS WERE THE RESULT OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE LEFT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE. WITHOUT ANY FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE AREA FOR THU. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE...TEMPERATURES WITH RETURN OF ANOTHER HOT AND
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY
DIURNAL HEATING HAS PROMOTED AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE THERMAL TROF ALOFT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND LATEST RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST
THEY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CARRY ISOLATED
MENTION UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT
UNDER SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT A BIT LESS
DIURNAL CU AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE TAIL END OF VORTICITY AND UPPER
JET NOSING INTO KANSAS. HOWEVER MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD MITIGATE OR LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO A ROGUE/ISOLATED
NATURE SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO AND PERHAPS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE GENERALLY SUGGESTS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUBTLE VARIANCES IN THE HANDLING OF WEAK
TROUGHINESS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DO POSE SOME CHALLENGES. THIS
IS MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERLIES MIGRATING UNDER THE RIDGE FROM
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS GULF COAST PERHAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD TEMPER THE COMING HOT STRETCH AND AT
THE MOMENT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS BRUTAL AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED IN
LATE JUNE. THAT SAID...MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES TO MATCH SEEM VERY REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DARMOFAL
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS. LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT...AND VEERING TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND
FROM 6000-9000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF KCNU...AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
INTERACTS WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
KCNU TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND SPARSE COVERAGE.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 66 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 67 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 66 95 67 95 / 10 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 96 69 96 / 10 0 0 10
RUSSELL 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 65 95 67 96 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 67 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 66 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 68 96 69 96 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1248 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
BRIEFLY CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE LATE THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BANK OF FOG ROLLING IN OFF
THE OCEAN, WITH KBHB NOW 1/2SM AND OVERCAST AT 200 FT. HAVE
THEREFORE UPDATED TO ADD FOG ALONG THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT
DAYBREAK. THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG AND KEEPS
IT LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, SO KEPT ANY MENTION OF FOG
OUT OF THE INLAND ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO DIP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW
EVENING AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND
UKMET KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NRN ME OR JUST TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO JUST HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO REACH FROM SAINT PAMPHILE TO
HOULTON BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA WITH A BUFFER OF SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WHICH INCLUDES MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL BACK OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THEN BRING MENTION OF THUNDER BACK FOR NORTHEAST
MAINE ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROF OVER LABRADOR FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC
WITH WARM MOIST RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH FOR MOST OF
CWA BY SATURDAY. EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE MOST NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HANG ON ALONG ST JOHN
RIVER VALLEY. RESULT IS THAT CLOUD COVER ALONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO KEEP NORTHERN ZONES A BIT COOLER. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
SLOWER THAN GFS ON ADVECTION OF MOISTURE UP MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONTINUITY AND GO WITH CHC AFTN
SHWR/TSTM POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CHC SHWR/TSTM POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MARINE FOG HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY INLAND INTO BAR HARBOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY IS NOW 1/2SM AND CEILINGS BELOW 500
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK. THE FOG
AND IFR WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ACROSS NRN ME STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS FVE. SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS FOR CAR
AND PQI.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KBHB WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND CLEAR SKIES MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/RUNYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL THEN BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ACROSS OHIO. AT THE SURFACE, A
1023MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE JERSEY COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ASIDE FROM
A FEW PATCHES OF MID-DECK CLOUDS, SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A 500MB TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WILL NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD, ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO OHIO BY EVENING.
FORCING WILL BE LACKING MOSTLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THE HRRR/WRF-NMM INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND ISOLATED. CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET
WITH SCHC POPS FOR THE PITTSBURGH METRO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT.
FOR TEMPS, FORECAST IS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS, CLOSEST TO THE WARMER MET. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN
RIDGES. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TDS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS LIMIT LOW TEMPS SOMEWHAT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSE TO
A MAV/MET BLEND, IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND SWING A PIECE OF ITS ENERGY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS MORE OF A SHORT WAVE. SCHC POPS
START THE DAY AND RAMP UP TO 40-50 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
VORT MAX PUSHES FROM OHIO NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA. PRECIP
FROM THE WAVE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY ALLEVIATE INCREASING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE INHIBITORS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO WITH A WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE AND THE GFS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, LEAVING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE, 40-50 POPS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES.
FOR TEMPS, FRIDAY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING COOLER TEMPS IN RAIN-COOLED AIR WITH THE PASSING SHORT
WAVE. FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 80S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE MID 80S FOR THE PITTSBURGH
METRO AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AS TDS INCREASE TO NEAR 70 WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW AN INITIAL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, DISSIPATING TOWARD
MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS AND THUS PROVIDE AN CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THERE CAN STILL BE A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTIONS MAY BETTER
DICTATE THE POSITION OF SUCH A BOUNDARY WITH REGARD TO ITS POTENTIAL
AS A LIFTING MECHANISM.
HENCE, CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE, BASED ON GFS, ECMWF, AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT, OF MAINTAINING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF INSTABILITY-INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH CAUSING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EACH DAY
BEGINNING FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
202 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL THEN BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 06Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH A
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ACROSS OHIO. AT THE SURFACE, A 1023MB
HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE JERSEY COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ASIDE FROM LINGERING
PATCHES OF MID-DECK CLOUDS RESULTANT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION,
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A 500MB TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WILL NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD, ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO OHIO BY EVENING. A
FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING MOSTLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AND CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ISOLATED.
TOWARDS THE EVENING, A DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL EDGE APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT.
FOR TEMPS, FORECAST IS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS, CLOSEST TO THE WARMER MET. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN
RIDGES. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TDS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS LIMIT LOW TEMPS SOMEWHAT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSE TO
A MAV/MET BLEND, IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL EXTEND A RIDGE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL PUSH MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...GENERALLY ACROSS OHIO. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH TO ZANESVILLE.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW AN INITIAL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, DISSIPATING TOWARD
MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS AND THUS PROVIDE AN CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THERE CAN STILL BE A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTIONS MAY BETTER
DICTATE THE POSITION OF SUCH A BOUNDARY WITH REGARD TO ITS POTENTIAL
AS A LIFTING MECHANISM.
HENCE, CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE, BASED ON GFS, ECMWF, AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT, OF MAINTAINING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF INSTABILITY-INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH CAUSING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EACH DAY
BEGINNING FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS WRN NEB TONIGHT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. STORM
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
UPDATE...
THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS ERN WY IS MOVING EAST FASTER THAN
ANY OF THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE. ALL MODELS ARE EITHER SILENT OR
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES VERY FAR EAST INTO NEB.
THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THE FIRST IS
PUSHING INTO WRN ND AND THE SECOND MOVING INTO SWRN MT PER WV
IMAGERY AND RAP PVU FIELDS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SCT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE PUSHING
EWD. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM MCK TO VTN. NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIES IN SFC THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT). UPPER FEATURE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE BUT DIFFER
IN THE HANDLING OF ASSOCIATED UPPER PV FEATURES AND RESULTING
CONVECTION AS THE SFC REFLECTION /COLD FRONT/ MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER PV MAX AND HENCE BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE NAM HAS AN
UPPER PV MAX MOVING INTO NWRN NEBRASKA WHICH SERVES TO PROMOTE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BELIEVING THE GFS
IDEA IS AT LEAST PARTIAL DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS WOULD
YIELD CHC POPS ALONG AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. FRONT WILL BE MEETING
RESISTANCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DIURNAL PLAINS LLJ THRU THURS MORNING
AND PRE-EXISTING HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE....SO LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPE DISTRIBUTION IS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR VERTICALLY SO
WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXPECT UPDRAFTS WILL BE PULSE
TYPE EXCEPT WHERE ORGANIZATION CAN BE SUSTAINED...SUCH AS CLOSE TO
THE FRONT AND WHERE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS DICTATE. RESULT
SHOULD BE LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SVR
WIND GUSTS.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE STATE.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND IT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF/GEM/FIM MODELS...AND MANY OF
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRID VALUES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD MID WEEK...POSSIBLY USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JWS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1116 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN NEB TONIGHT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH A SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
UPDATE...
THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS ERN WY IS MOVING EAST FASTER THAN
ANY OF THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE. ALL MODELS ARE EITHER SILENT OR
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES VERY FAR EAST INTO NEB.
THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS WY/SCNTL MT THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS. OTHERWISE VFR ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THE FIRST IS
PUSHING INTO WRN ND AND THE SECOND MOVING INTO SWRN MT PER WV
IMAGERY AND RAP PVU FIELDS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SCT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE PUSHING
EWD. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM MCK TO VTN. NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIES IN SFC THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT). UPPER FEATURE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE BUT DIFFER
IN THE HANDLING OF ASSOCIATED UPPER PV FEATURES AND RESULTING
CONVECTION AS THE SFC REFLECTION /COLD FRONT/ MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER PV MAX AND HENCE BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE NAM HAS AN
UPPER PV MAX MOVING INTO NWRN NEBRASKA WHICH SERVES TO PROMOTE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BELIEVING THE GFS
IDEA IS AT LEAST PARTIAL DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS WOULD
YIELD CHC POPS ALONG AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. FRONT WILL BE MEETING
RESISTENCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DIURNAL PLAINS LLJ THRU THURS MORNING
AND PRE-EXISTING HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE....SO LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPE DISTRIBUTION IS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR VERTICALLY SO
WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXPECT UPDRAFTS WILL BE PULSE
TYPE EXCEPT WHERE ORGANIZATION CAN BE SUSTAINED...SUCH AS CLOSE TO
THE FRONT AND WHERE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS DICTATE. RESULT
SHOULD BE LIMTED LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SVR
WIND GUSTS.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE STATE.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND IT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF/GEM/FIM MODELS...AND MANY OF
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRID VALUES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD MID WEEK...POSSIBLY USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
AVIATION...18Z TAF FOR KLBF AND KVTN.
VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH BASED
CU THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
KVTN-KLBF BUT SHOULDNT GET BEYOND SCT. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PASSAGE EXPECTED AFTER
18Z...WHEN ISOLD TO SCT TSRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR KVTN...BUT
AGAIN AFTER 12/18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
414 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE SOUTHERN TIER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEY SHOW 500MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WHICH WILL PLACE A FAIRLY GOOD CAP
AROUND 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET TODAY. THERE WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THE CAP AND LACK OF ANY
REAL FORCING, HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER, THE HRRR IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 17Z. THINKING IT MAY BE OVER AMPLIFYING THE
AFTERNOON CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO AROUND 590
DECAMETERS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEY A
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND A THE RIDGE, WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH
FORCING, WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, TO ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, MOISTURE RIDING AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH, WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME CONVECTIVE
CELLS TO FIRE UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RIDDING AROUND
THE RIDGE. HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MORE
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. AT KELM, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-11Z DUE TO BR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY FEW/SCT CU AROUND 6-7K FT THIS AFTERNOON
THEN CLEAR SKIES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR.
SAT/SUN/MON...GENERALLY VFR. CHC FOR SCT MVFR IN
SHWRS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO FRIDAY...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN STATES IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS ERN NC TODAY
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE NC COAST. CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS THE
SOUNDS AND OBX. HRRR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THIS
SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THIS AREA AND WILL HAVE SLT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS TODAY A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW`S IN EXCESS OF 2" AND EXPECT A
DESCENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE INLAND WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE...CAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG...AND SEA BREEZE AND OTHER LINGERING BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR. WITH HIGH PW VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AND COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YDA...IN THE L/M80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT WITH
THE FRONT REMAINED STALLED ACROSS THE AREA AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION BUT STRATIFORM PCPN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST AS HAS OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS. SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS COVERAGE WILL HOLD LOWS MAINLY IN THE 68-75 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THU...FORCING ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST. STILL HAVE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SO WILL CONT CHC
POPS MAINLY INLAND FRI AFTN. OVER THE WEEKEND PRECIP WTR LOWERS AND
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION INTO MON. MDLS DIFFER A BIT TUE AND
WED WITH ECMWF HOLDING ON TO THE RIDGE WHILE GFS SHOWS BROAD UPR TRF
TO THE W...KEPT ISOLD POPS IN DURING THE AFTN BOTH TUE AND WED. HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD A LITTLE BELOW 90 INLAND FRI THEN REACH
AROUND 90 SAT. FROM SUNDAY ON EXPECT LOWER 90S INLAND WITH RDG NEAR
OR JUST TO THE E.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...ABUNDANT MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS RTES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE COAST. WIDELY VARIABLE CIGS FROM LIFR TO VFR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SOMEWHAT IMPROVED CIGS TO MVFR/VFR WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
COULD BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY VARIABLE
CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO LIFR.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THU...FOG/STRATUS GOOD BET FRI MORN WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LVLS. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
CIGS/VSBYS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR
AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF.
&&
.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AOB 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS...GENERALLY S/SWLY ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS AND NE/ELY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2-4 FT MAINLY IN MEDIUM PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 9-11 SEC BUT A
SHORTER PERIOD CHOP AROUND 5 SEC MAY PERSIST ACROSS NEARSHORE
ONSLOW BAY THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THU...WEAK FRONT ALONG THE CST EARLY FRI WILL DISSIPATE
WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN. HIGH PRES WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BECOME DOMINANT FEATURE FROM SAT ON WITH MAINLY S/SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT...HIGHEST MON AS TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET FRI...AN INCREASING SE SWELL WILL LEAD TO
SOME 4 TO POSS 5 FOOT SEAS LATER SAT INTO MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1050 PM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NC/SC
BORDER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ELSEWHERE
SHOWERS HAVE LONG SINCE ENDED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO REFLECT THAT. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
FRONT SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM WEST TO EAST. AROUND
07Z THE 21Z HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW THE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN SC MOVING NNE TOWARD CENTRAL NC. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z 250 MB ANALYSIS...WHICH SHOWS A JET STREAK JUST
TO THE WSW OF NC AND AND THE 700 MB SHEAR AXIS AND POSSIBLE
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT AT 850 MB. THUS...HAVE IN GENERAL THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER POPS AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
850 MILLIBAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY IN SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
AROUND AN OFFSHORE HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND AMPLE CLOUDINESS... EXPECT ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT... RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 30
PERCENT. LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT SHEAR AXIS WILL STILL BE
WRAPPED AROUND THE RIDGE...PRODUCING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE...50 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...EXPECTING
OUR LAST DAY OF HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL SEE DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER MODELS STILL PROG
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (PWATS VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES) TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY (WILL ONLY SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS DUE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE). SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS WE
TRANSITION BACK INTO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
OUR LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
A RETURN TO A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND A DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...AM EXPECTING ONLY
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS EACH AFTERNOON. INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
TRENDING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MOSTLY LOW 90S EXPECTED EACH
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED FROM KGSO/KINT TO KRDU AT 06Z...WITH IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND THE KFAY AREA. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY DROPPING
TO IFR/LIFR AT KGSO/KINT BY 08-09Z AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO
THE FOOTHILLS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
MIXING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR BY
LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
FOR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LATER...AND SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY AROUND KFAY LATE IN THE DAY WHERE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WILL LIE.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DAILY FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO CONDITIONS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...KC/MLM
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DJF/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NC/SC
BORDER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ELSEWHERE
SHOWERS HAVE LONG SINCE ENDED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO REFLECT THAT. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
FRONT SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM WEST TO EAST. AROUND
07Z THE 21Z HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW THE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN SC MOVING NNE TOWARD CENTRAL NC. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z 250 MB ANALYSIS...WHICH SHOWS A JET STREAK JUST
TO THE WSW OF NC AND AND THE 700 MB SHEAR AXIS AND POSSIBLE
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT AT 850 MB. THUS...HAVE IN GENERAL THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER POPS AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM...
850 MILLIBAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY IN SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
AROUND AN OFFSHORE HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND AMPLE CLOUDINESS... EXPECT ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT... RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 30
PERCENT. LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...
WILL SEE GRADUAL DRYING AND A WARMING TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP RIDGING BUILDS WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT SHEAR AXIS WILL STILL BE
WRAPPED AROUND THE RIDGE...PRODUCING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE...50 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...
EXPECTING OUR LAST DAY OF HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S.
RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH A
WARM...NOT HOT... AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE... WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY... EDGING UP TO THE VERY HIGH 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY...
AND IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGE OF AIR
MASS IS IN SIGHT... SO PERSISTENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70
TO 75 RANGE WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL CAP AND DAMPEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... WITH LARGELY DIURNAL CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE
DIURNAL POPS WILL BE GRADUATED HIGHER TOWARDS THE WEST WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD DRIFT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES SOME SLIGHT DEGREE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED FROM KGSO/KINT TO KRDU AT 06Z...WITH IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND THE KFAY AREA. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY DROPPING
TO IFR/LIFR AT KGSO/KINT BY 08-09Z AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO
THE FOOTHILLS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
MIXING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR BY
LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
FOR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LATER...AND SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY AROUND KFAY LATE IN THE DAY WHERE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WILL LIE.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DAILY FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO CONDITIONS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
334 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 250 MB TROUGH AXIS
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. RADAR IMAGERY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS SHOWS AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES EXPANDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S AREAWIDE.
LATEST GLOBAL...SHORT TERM...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INCLUDING WRF AND HRRR MODELS INDICATES CURRENT AREA OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AS WELL.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE H25
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST AND STRENGTHENING WAA OVER THE CWA AS
WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THUS WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR TODAY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED...AND HAVE LOWEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE PLATEAU REGION WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN ALL DAY LONG. WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...LITTLE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WE WILL
SEE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE AND OPTIMISTIC ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
APPEARS HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOOD THREATS ARE LESSENING.
HPC HAS ACCORDINGLY LOWERED TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY
DOWN TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE SOIL WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WILL NOT REISSUE HEAVY
RAINFALL SPS AT THIS TIME. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS SET UP SHOP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH CWA REMAINING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EAST OF A PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING PWATS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DAILY BUT MORE DIURNAL POPS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN PRECIP CHANCES WHILE TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. HAVE KEPT POPS/TEMPS UNDER BUT NOT FAR FROM MEX MOS
NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 79 69 85 72 / 80 70 60 30
CLARKSVILLE 81 68 84 69 / 80 70 60 30
CROSSVILLE 75 66 80 68 / 90 70 60 30
COLUMBIA 79 69 86 71 / 80 70 60 30
LAWRENCEBURG 78 68 86 70 / 90 70 60 30
WAVERLY 80 68 84 69 / 80 70 60 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
100 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ROUGHLY
ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR MEMPHIS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. 12/18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THE 23Z HRRR IS
FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE
MS TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE HRRR SEEMS ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT POPS 20 PERCENT...LEAVING
LIKELY POP ACROSS NE MS. WILL ALSO TRIM BACK THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPS AND SKY LOOK FINE.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN EAST ARKANSAS WHERE THINNER CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE.
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE FROM
NORTH LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WE MAY END UP
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT BETWEEN EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AFTER SUNRISE...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND RESULTING
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WEST.
FRIDAY RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS A TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT
ORIENTATION MUCH OF THE AREA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...OR WE COULD SEE A SITUATION WHERE THE EASTERN
AREAS GET A NICE SOAKING RAIN WHILE FARTHER WEST IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WHERE RAIN IS MORE NEEDED...SHOWERS ARE LESS ABUNDANT.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
NOT AS BULLISH WITH THIS SOLUTION...ACTUALLY KEEPING THE FRONT
WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER EVEN THE TROUGH ALOFT WITHOUT THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER FRIDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS
AGO. IFR WAS NOTED AT TUP AT 06Z... AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MEM
TOWARD 10Z. AREAS SOUTH OF A MEM/MKL LINE REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA
FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 71 88 72 90 / 40 50 40 50
MKL 70 87 70 88 / 50 50 40 50
JBR 70 89 71 88 / 30 30 30 40
TUP 70 88 71 90 / 50 50 40 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.AVIATION...
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO PLAN ON
KEEPING VCSH AND VCTS THROUGH AROUND 00Z ON THE 06Z TAFS. THE EXACT
LOCATION AND AXIS OF DEVELOPING ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT...SO AVIATION FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN/NEAR THE STORMS.
ALSO...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TRYING TO EDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE CLL SITE.
42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS EVENING HAVE UPDATED GRIDS
AND ZONE WORDING FOR ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER...AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
ANOTHER STORY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER THE PERSISTENT TREND. HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE DID QUITE WELL LAST NIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF TSRA ALONG
THE COAST. TONIGHT THE HRRR DEVELOPS STORMS FURTHER INLAND AS DOES
THE NEW 00Z NAM12. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE STORMS SHOULD FIRE
UP AROUND 07-08Z CLOSER TO METRO AREA THAN LAST NIGHT. STILL NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION TO REFINE THE SIZE OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE EXTREMELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH 00Z KLCH PWAT OF 2.05 INCH AND KSHV 2.27 INCH.
BLENDED PWAT PRODUCT AGREES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT AIR POOLING
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH IN CWA...BUT IT`S ALL HIGH. SATURATED
GROUNDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FROM RECENT RAINS...CONTINUATION OF
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS PRUDENT DESPITE THIS TEMPORARY LULL.
FEW SMALL TEMP AND DEW POINT CHANGES AS A FEW INLAND AREAS RUNNING
COOLER THAN FORECAST. 04
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST 1/3 OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA A
BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THIS
RAIN WILL INITIATE - WHETHER IT BE ALONG THE COAST OR FURTHER
INLAND. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS WITH EXCELLENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE SPEED
CONVERGENCE FCST ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH 2.2-2.4"
PW`S.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SOME TRAINING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE RIVER...CREEK AND STREET FLOODING.
THE FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4PM THURS.
SEE THAT PRODUCT FOR MORE SHORT TERM WX DETAILS. POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AFFECTS AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN GETTING HIT HARD IN THE PAST 18 HOURS.
TROF AXIS/WEAKNESS LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MIGHT DIMINISH A TOUCH THEY SHOULD STILL
HOVER AROUND 2" INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEEL THAT WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE DECENT COVERAGE - PROBABLY BECOMING MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
- INTO NEXT WEEK SO NUDGE AFTN POPS UPWARDS. MODEL TRENDS HAS
BEEN FOR DECREASING POPS ABOUT T+48 WHICH STILL HASN`T HAPPENED...SO
GENERAL PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO UNTIL SOMETHING
CHANGES. 47
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 89 73 / 70 60 40 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 86 74 89 73 / 70 70 40 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 85 78 88 78 / 70 70 40 50 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS, IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE HEADING TO THE EAST
COAST, WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA, HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT DEVELOPING
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO PARTLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AS NAM
MODEL PROFILES SHOW INCREASED SURFACE LAYER HUMIDITY HAS LOWERED
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. RECENT HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWS A DEVELOPING ERIE LAKE BREEZE FRONT CAN BECOME
FOCUS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHICALLY-INFLUENCED DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS CAN LIKEWISE FOCUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECASTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER NAM MOS,
WHICH MEANS SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SOUTH MAY REACH 90
DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT, COUPLED WITH DETAILS FROM
THE MOST RECENT NAM MODEL OUTPUT, SHOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO TWO FACTORS. THE FIRST FACTOR IS INCREASING
SURFACE LAYER HUMIDITY THAT WILL PROMOTE INCREASED VERTICAL
INSTABILITY. THE SECOND FACTOR IS BETTER ORGANIZED LIFTING
MECHANISMS. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS, WHICH COULD BE
TERMED A DEW POINT WARM FRONT. THE OTHER PART IS THE APPROACH OF A
SLOW EASTBOUND UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECASTED A SLIGHTLY SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THIS PERIOD
DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW AN INITIAL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, DISSIPATING TOWARD
MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS AND THUS PROVIDE AN CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THERE CAN STILL BE A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTIONS MAY BETTER
DICTATE THE POSITION OF SUCH A BOUNDARY WITH REGARD TO ITS POTENTIAL
AS A LIFTING MECHANISM.
HENCE, CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE, BASED ON GFS, ECMWF, AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT, OF MAINTAINING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF INSTABILITY-INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT,
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY PROVIDING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY MVFR FOG AND HAZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND HAZE EACH DAY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1004 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S THROUGH THE WEEK...AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN ONE
BEING TO FURTHER LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. SETUP ACROSS THE
REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...FEATURING
OVERALL FAIRLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE
EXPANSIVE AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES FROM THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES RIGHT ON BACK INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...LIKELY A FEEDBACK MECHANISM FROM THE ONGOING VERY DRY
CONDITIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. PWATS HAVE INCHED UP OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...UP TO A WHOPPING 0.57 INCHES PER 12Z APX
RAOB...BUT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE IS UP TOP...WHILE THE LOW LEVELS
HAVE ACTUALLY FURTHER DRIED OUT FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE LIMITED MIXING TODAY GIVEN VERY LIGHT WIND
FIELDS...MIXING UP TO 800MB STILL PUTS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
FIRMLY IN AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HINTS ON MET GUIDANCE AND
LATEST HRRR NUMBERS BOOST CONFIDENCE THAT READINGS MAY DIP INTO
THE 30S IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON (AWAY FROM THE LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE NEAR THE COASTS...OF COURSE). COMBINED WITH HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN WEAK ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE MIN RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN
SPOTS...WITH GOING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MENTION DEFINITELY
WARRANTED.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...SAVE FOR
RAISING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO THE WATER BEFORE LAKE
BREEZES KICK IN AFTER 17Z. COULD ALSO SEE A RENEWED CU FIELD
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN AN AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE LAID OUT OVER THE U.P...WITH EVEN AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE AT A ROGUE BRIEF SHOWER...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT GIVEN SLOWLY
GROWING CAP UP AROUND 600MB. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SIMPLY A BEAUTIFUL
SUMMERTIME DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ENJOY!
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. BATCH OF MID CLOUD PRESENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS (CONVECTIVE DEBRIS) ALSO NOSING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UP THAT WAY ALREADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
LOW AMPLITUDE 4-WAVE LONG WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WITH SUBTLE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY WITH THE MAIN FLOW BOTTLED UP
ACROSS CANADA. AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
FIXED FROM MICHIGAN TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FLOW PRESENT ACROSS SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO PRODUCING A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION UP THAT WAY. ONE SMALL MCS IS CAUGHT UP
IN RELATIVE WEAK FLOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIFTING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND PRODUCING A NICE
DUMPING OF RAIN FOR THAT AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH FAIR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF
SUPERIOR NOT MAKING ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...DYING AS IT GETS INTO
THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF ONTARIO. SO...THIS FEATURE
POSES LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THREAT TO THIS CWA...BUT OF COURSE WILL
WATCH IT. SOME ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MAY DRIFT INTO THE NRN PARTS
OF THE CWA HOWEVER...ALONG WITH A BATCH OF MID CLOUD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE...
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...DAYTIME CU POTENTIAL
LOOKING PRETTY LOW TODAY...UNLESS SFC DEWPOINTS STAY UP A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...SOLID MID 80S...A LITTLE COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE SHORES WITH LIGHT WINDS/LAKE BREEZES SETTING UP BY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/LOW DEWPOINTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS MORE SFC MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF AND ALSO HAS A
MORE DEVELOPED 500 MB WAVE MOVING INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GFS ALSO
HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES WHICH SPILLS
UP NORTH TO US. THINK THAT THIS IS TOO MOIST STILL AS THE SFC
MOISTURE BIAS, SHOWN IN THE SFC DEWPOINTS, IS TRYING TO DEVELOPING
THINGS TOO MUCH. INTERESTINGLY, THE MOISTURE AT IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER, LOOKS THE SAME. SO IF THE SFC MOISTURE WASN`T SO HIGH ON GFS
WOULD THINK IT WOULD LOOK LIKE THE ECMWF. NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING LATE(AFTER 21Z) IN S LOWER AND MOVES IT UP INTO NW LOWER.
NOT SURE I BELIEVE THIS FEATURE EITHER AS IT IS USUALLY DRY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS. SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE POPS DRY OVER THE
REGION.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RETURN FLOW JUST STARTING, WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT THINGS CONTINUE
AND FALL APART OVERNIGHT, BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE,
PROBABLY FROM THE EXCESSIVE MOISTURE. THE 500 MB WAVE TO THE NW WILL
BE IN W UPPER BY THE 12Z, SO WILL THINK THAT THE CLOUDS MAY START TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE MORNING. THE NAM IS WAY TOO WEST AS
WELL, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS KICKING OFF RAIN FROM SMALL AMOUNTS OF
CAPE (BMJ PARAMETRIZATION). SO IF THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT IF IT DOES DURING THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS
THE MOISTURE THAT IS EDGING ITS WAY NORTH THAT COULD GET INTO
GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK WAY TOO WET COMPARED TO THE WAY
THIS YEAR HAS TRENDED. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. THINK THAT
THIS DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE IS RATHER THIN ON THE ECMWF WITH
LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES MOVING INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE NIGHT DRY AS WELL. THINK THAT THE GFS AND
NAM ARE BOTH SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/PARAMETRIZATION OVER
DEVELOPMENT OR MOISTURE BIAS. ITS HARD TO TAKE THESE MODELS TOO
SERIOUSLY.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUNDAY, MOISTURE GETS INTO THE
REGION WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN NE LOWER AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. MONDAY, CONTINUED TO PUSH THE POPS DOWN AS ONE WAVE MOVES
OFF, AND THE NEXT WAVE IS STILL UPSTREAM. THERE IS A BETTER JET
STREAK FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA, AND LOOKS LIKE DRIVES
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH IN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS KEEPS THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN E UPPER AND IN THE TIP OF THE MIT. GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SFC LOW THAT SPUN UP ON LAST NIGHT`S RUN. IT
IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. SO THE RAIN STARTS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY, LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE PUSHING
THUNDER INTO MORE OF N LOWER. GFS IS NOW BOMBING A SFC LOW TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SFC TROUGH
AND DECENT NW FLOW. LOW POPS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NOTHING AS SEVERE AS
THE GFS IDEA. WEDNESDAY, NOW THE MODELS FLIP WITH THE ECMWF HAVING
ALL THE RAIN IN NW FLOW AND THE TROUGH SINKING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS MAJOR SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. GUESS,
IF I GO WITH THE ECMWF WITH LESS DEVELOPED LOW/SFC TROUGH, SHOULD GO
WITH IT, WITH THE WEAKER SFC HIGH, AND LESS SUBSIDENCE. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE. BATCH OF MID CLOUD OVER EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PLN TERMINAL SITE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE WITH LAKE BREEZE WIND DIRECTIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
LIGHT WINDS/WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TREND FOR INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS DURING THE DAY WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1013 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND A MID LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT NEARING THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH THE BULK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY RELEGATED TO CANADA...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH ONLY A ~60KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SOME OF THIS INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
OVERALL TODAYS FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST 21Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONSENSUS FROM OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM AND HRRR REMAINING
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE SAME.
INTERESTING TO NOTE SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA ARE REALLY SPIKING THIS MORNING...WITH DEW POINTS FROM
KJYR TO KK61 ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS MOISTURE RETURN HAS NOT YET INFILTRATED OUR
WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S FROM KODX TO KLXN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST...THUS RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES. 12Z NAM SUGGESTS 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES WILL ONLY APPROACH 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES FARTHER EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS ALSO HELPING PROMOTE
WEAK DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WITH THESE VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL
THIS...CONTINUE TO FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WHAT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERLY
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KGRI LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BUT
DUE TO THE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED NATURE OF ACTIVITY DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF JUST YET. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BUT WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A QUICK OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...DAKOTAS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO
REALLY IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER...WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS MINNESOTA...IOWA...AND MISSOURI.
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE NOT EXACTLY THE BEST
SETUP...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT AT THIS TIME.
CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY...SHEAR WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. AT LEAST 1500 TO 2000
J/KG REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN BOTH CASES DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR LESS
THAN 30 KTS IN BOTH CASES. GIVEN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON
FRIDAY...AND FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WORDING THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONG TO SEVERE WORDING ON FRIDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BOTH TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS HIGHER ALL THREE DAYS AND AN ONE INSTANCE WAS AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES HIGHER...WENT AHEAD WITH A FEW DEGREES INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER AND THE SURFACE TROUGH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR BUT STILL
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL
SEE A RETURN OF HOT CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. WITH THE HOT AIRMASS SETTLING
IN...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY IN THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SURFACE BOUNDARY FEATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE WEEK OF NEXT
WEEK AS FRONT MAY TRY TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY LOCATION THIS FAR OUT
IS NOT HIGH AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...MORE IN LINE WITH
ECMWF THAN GFS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1013 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE SOUTHERN TIER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEY SHOW 500MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WHICH WILL PLACE A FAIRLY GOOD CAP
AROUND 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET TODAY. THERE WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THE CAP AND LACK OF ANY
REAL FORCING, HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER, THE HRRR IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 17Z. THINKING IT MAY BE OVER AMPLIFYING THE
AFTERNOON CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO AROUND 590
DECAMETERS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEY A
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND A THE RIDGE, WHICH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH
FORCING, WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, TO ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, MOISTURE RIDING AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH, WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME CONVECTIVE
CELLS TO FIRE UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RIDDING AROUND
THE RIDGE. HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MORE
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. AT KELM, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-12Z DUE TO BR. EXPECT FEW/SCT ALTO CU
AROUND 6-8K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR.
SAT/SUN/MON...GENERALLY VFR. CHC FOR SCT MVFR IN
SHWRS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1039 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...PULLING OUT HAIR TRYING TO FIGURE DETAILS FOR
TODAY. UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AROUND 00Z. 15Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
A COUPLE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL BE
THROUGH THE FA BY 00Z. NOT SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL WAVES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IN
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONGER WAVE...WHILE CAPPING HELD WHERE THERE WAS NO HELPING
LIFT. TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED MLCAPE VALUES WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY OF THE FA SHOULD BE AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY (EXCPET FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FA CLOSER TO THE
MAIN UPPER LOW). GIVEN DEWPOINT VALUES MID-UPPER 60S AND POSSIBLE
POOLING NEAR 70F...MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY WILL BE AROUND 2000-2500
J/KG IN AREAS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM 850MB-
700MB LAYER THAT WILL PROVIDE A CAP. GIVEN THE ABOVE
THINKING...MUCH OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL BE NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER (12Z HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY AFTER 20Z ACROSS
ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN FA). WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT TO THIS
THINKING. WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
IS LOCATED GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILIY...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WILL BE
WEAK. LIKELY WILL BE PULSE TYPE LARGE HAIL STORMS...AND HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST SITES WILL BE VFR TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL BE ABLE TO HIT A TAF SITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RADAR INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN ND
AND WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
FOR LARGE HAIL.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AT LOWER LEVELS WHILE
UPPER WAVE REMAINS OPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AT LOWER LEVELS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
SHOWALTER INDEX LOWERS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND COLD FRONT TO
BACKDOOR THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S. WILL ADD LOW POPS ON THE MN SIDE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME ISSUES IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF THE 500
MB RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z
CANADIAN GEM MODEL IS A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH RIDGE
AND THUS A BIT WARMER. 00Z ECMWF IS WARM AS WELL WITH 00Z GFS A BIT
FLATTER AND NOT AS WARM. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
WEEKS AND THE WARMER SOLN HAS SO FAR WORKED OUT BEST. THUS WENT AT
OR JUST ABOVE GIVEN ALL BLEND HIGH TEMPS NEXT WEEK. WARMEST DAYS
WILL BE MON-TUE. AS FOR PRECIPITATION....TYPICAL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE MID SUMMER ISSUES. BLEND FROM MODELS WOULD INDICATE BEST
CHANCES SUN NIGHT-MON TIME FRAME AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY. GIVEN
PATTERN AND SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE WENT ALONG WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH
GIVES CHANCES MOST PERIODS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1037 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS IN THE NW A TAD DOWNWARD...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES. FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND
POPS WILL DECLINE LATE TOMORROW AND WILL GO BACK TO A MORE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE SITUATION WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
POOR FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOW.
A STATIONARY FRONT COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN SITU THROUGH TODAY. AT THE UPPER LEVEL (250
MILLIBARS) THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN PART OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE JET AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WHICH MEANS PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS THE
MID STATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD NORTHWARD
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL TRY AND OVERSPREAD ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR THUNDER...DID NOT INCLUDE
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BUT THEY COULD
OCCUR AT ANYTIME AND ANY PLACE WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 250 MB TROUGH AXIS
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. RADAR IMAGERY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS SHOWS AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES EXPANDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S AREAWIDE.
LATEST GLOBAL...SHORT TERM...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INCLUDING WRF AND HRRR MODELS INDICATES CURRENT AREA OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AS WELL.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE H25
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST AND STRENGTHENING WAA OVER THE CWA AS
WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THUS WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR TODAY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED...AND HAVE LOWEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE PLATEAU REGION WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN ALL DAY LONG. WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...LITTLE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WE WILL
SEE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE AND OPTIMISTIC ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
APPEARS HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOOD THREATS ARE LESSENING.
HPC HAS ACCORDINGLY LOWERED TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY
DOWN TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE SOIL WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WILL NOT REISSUE HEAVY
RAINFALL SPS AT THIS TIME. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS SET UP SHOP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH CWA REMAINING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EAST OF A PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING PWATS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DAILY BUT MORE DIURNAL POPS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN PRECIP CHANCES WHILE TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. HAVE KEPT POPS/TEMPS UNDER BUT NOT FAR FROM MEX MOS
NUMBERS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
928 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POP...WX...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO AFTER
LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST NC. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 69 87 71 90 / 100 70 70 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 68 85 70 89 / 90 80 70 40 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 68 84 70 89 / 100 80 70 40 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 67 83 66 87 / 100 80 70 30 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
POOR FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOW.
A STATIONARY FRONT COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN SITU THROUGH TODAY. AT THE UPPER LEVEL (250
MILLIBARS) THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN PART OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE JET AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WHICH MEANS PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS THE
MID STATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD NORTHWARD
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL TRY AND OVERSPREAD ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR THUNDER...DID NOT INCLUDE
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BUT THEY COULD
OCCUR AT ANYTIME AND ANY PLACE WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 250 MB TROUGH AXIS
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. RADAR IMAGERY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS SHOWS AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES EXPANDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HPC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S AREAWIDE.
LATEST GLOBAL...SHORT TERM...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INCLUDING WRF AND HRRR MODELS INDICATES CURRENT AREA OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AS WELL.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE H25
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST AND STRENGTHENING WAA OVER THE CWA AS
WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THUS WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR TODAY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED...AND HAVE LOWEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE PLATEAU REGION WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN ALL DAY LONG. WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...LITTLE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WE WILL
SEE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE AND OPTIMISTIC ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
APPEARS HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOOD THREATS ARE LESSENING.
HPC HAS ACCORDINGLY LOWERED TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY
DOWN TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE EASILY HANDLED BY THE SOIL WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WILL NOT REISSUE HEAVY
RAINFALL SPS AT THIS TIME. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS SET UP SHOP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH CWA REMAINING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EAST OF A PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING PWATS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DAILY BUT MORE DIURNAL POPS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN PRECIP CHANCES WHILE TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. HAVE KEPT POPS/TEMPS UNDER BUT NOT FAR FROM MEX MOS
NUMBERS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
331 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...MONITORING A LINE OF
CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG A SFC CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND
SEDGWICK COUNTIES. LOWER/MID 50 DEWPTS POOLED ALONG THIS
LINE OF WITH THE 18Z/RUC INDICATING CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE IN THE AREA. HOWEVER THE RUC WAS ALSO INDICATING
CIN/CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/ VALUES IN THE 40-80 J/KG IN THE AREA.
ONE REASON FOR THE SLUGGISH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT THAT WAY.
OTHERWISE HEAT GENERATED ISOLATED T-STORMS POPPING UP IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY GENERALLY LOW INTENSITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...CG
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS PRETTY MUCH ALL WE/VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORY OF STORMS SHIFTED FROM SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST
NOSE EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO BY ABOUT 0.10
INCH...BUT UP SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOULD COULD TO SEE FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ON THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WITH ALL THE PENT UP
ENERGY ALONG THE PLAINS BOUNDARY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STORMS GENERATE HAIL AT LEAST 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER...RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 0.75 INCH PER HOUR...AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
PROBABLY BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING IS UP NEAR THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WHERE GREATEST CAPE VALUES NOW EXIST.
FOR TONIGHT...AFTER THE ISOLATED STORMS DESCRIBED ABOVE DISSIPATE
SOMETIME AROUND 20-21Z...SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPICAL NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN IN AND
NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 8-15KT FARTHER OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
ON FRIDAY...THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AT THE MOMENT MIGRATES
EASTWARD OVER COLORADO...RESULTING IN A MUCH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT
AND LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WARMING ALOFT FURTHER
STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.
THEREFORE CHANCES FOR STORMS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOWER THAN TODAY.
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY CHANCES ABOUT THE SAME...BUT ANY STORMS THAT
MANGE TO FORM IN THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND POORLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE
NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR LONG. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY 1-2C HIGHER THAN TODAY. COULD SEE THE MERCURY PUSHING THE
CENTURY MARK ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER NORTHEAST OF DENVER.
.LONG TERM...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY EVENING WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE WILL PERSIST. CAPES
MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 200 J/KG...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE WEAK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH...SO ONLY
LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS AREA. A
FEW STORMS COULD LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE FIGHTING
SUBSIDENCE. ON SATURDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...
THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF COLORADO.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS AS WELL. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE STORM CHANCES INCREASE..NAM LESS WITH VALUES AROUND SEVEN TENTHS OF
AN INCH. BOTH MODELS SIMILAR ACROSS PLAINS WITH VALUES CLOSE TO AN
INCH. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOST OF THIS MOISTURE ABOVE
MOUNTAIN TOP. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. CAPE VALUES ROUGHLY
IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 90S. MODELS SHOW
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE 700 MB SPECIFIC WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 8 G/KG. INTERESTING THAT THE GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IS ONLY AROUND EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH.
ANYWAY...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD DUMP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION.
PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE LITTLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH COULD INCREASE STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY HIGH BASED CONVECTION PASSING OVER
THE DENVER METRO AREA BETWEEN 21Z/THU AND 01Z/FRI COULD STILL
PRODUCE BRIEF OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30KTS AND SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS OF 7-13KT
OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THIS DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING A
TYPICAL UPSLOPE/EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT OF 6-12KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OR FLASH FLOODING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD DEPOSIT UP TO 0.25
INCH IN 45 MINUTES AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. STORMS SHOULD END IN
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY INCREASES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF ALBANY. GIVEN THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE RELATIVE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT NONE REALLY MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 FOR NYC/NORTHEAST
NJ...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST
WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP...BUT THAT SUN WILL BE
FILTERED THROUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. AFTERNOON
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS
SIMILAR TO WHERE FOG DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...GIVEN SIMILAR CONDS.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ALOFT TONIGHT - HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH.
ATTM...THINK THAT THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN. THUS...A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS FCST WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. BLENDED MOS WAS USE.
FRIDAY APPEARS CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF TODAY. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP A LITTLE SOONER DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC SURFACE
FLOW. IT MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. STILL NOT BAD FOR MID
JULY.
THE PLUME OF THIN CIRRUS CONTINUES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS AFTN SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER FORCING AND DEEPER
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ATTM WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS EARLY...WITH THE GFS
FASTER AND THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO LEAN
SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF THE GFS...WITH DRY CONDS THE FIRST HALF OF FRI
NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCE POP FROM NYC WEST LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON A VERY WARM...MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVING IN AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BASED ON A DEPARTING OFFSHORE HIGH.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85-90 BOTH DAYS
BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S
ON SAT AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE...
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES NEAR 90 ON SATURDAY AND MID 90S ON SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT ON SAT...THEN ALSO INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
REMAINING NEARBY AND AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHC THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. STAY
TUNED.
MONDAY...THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SCT HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL SHORT WAVES APPROACH...WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND AND MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
GENERALLY A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6-12 KT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. BY MID MORNING...SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KT AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KPHN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE FORECAST ON TRACK. SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN THIS
MORNING ARE AROUND 4 FT...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
COMBINED WIND WAVES FROM SW WINDS 10-15 KT AND INCOMING SE SWELLS
SHOULD BUILD SEAS UP TO 4 FT FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST BELOW
SCA LEVELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCT HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE SAT THROUGH MON. THIS IS
DUE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AND CAUSE
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 2
INCHES. MESO BETA ELEMENT / CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KT OR LESS
SUGGEST SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JST
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1240 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY INCREASES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF ALBANY. GIVEN THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE RELATIVE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT NONE REALLY MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 FOR NYC/NORTHEAST
NJ...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST
WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP...BUT THAT SUN WILL BE
FILTERED THROUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. AFTERNOON
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS
SIMILAR TO WHERE FOG DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...GIVEN SIMILAR CONDS.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ALOFT TONIGHT - HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH.
ATTM...THINK THAT THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN. THUS...A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS FCST WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. BLENDED MOS WAS USE.
FRIDAY APPEARS CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF TODAY. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP A LITTLE SOONER DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC SURFACE
FLOW. IT MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. STILL NOT BAD FOR MID
JULY.
THE PLUME OF THIN CIRRUS CONTINUES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS AFTN SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER FORCING AND DEEPER
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ATTM WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS EARLY...WITH THE GFS
FASTER AND THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO LEAN
SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF THE GFS...WITH DRY CONDS THE FIRST HALF OF FRI
NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCE POP FROM NYC WEST LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON A VERY WARM...MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVING IN AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BASED ON A DEPARTING OFFSHORE HIGH.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85-90 BOTH DAYS
BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S
ON SAT AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE...
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES NEAR 90 ON SATURDAY AND MID 90S ON SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT ON SAT...THEN ALSO INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
REMAINING NEARBY AND AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHC THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. STAY
TUNED.
MONDAY...THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SCT HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL SHORT WAVES APPROACH...WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND AND MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KGON WHERE SOME FOG
OVER THE WATER MAY SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT AND VRB FLOW BECOMES ENE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE COAST WILL DEVELOP AND CAUSE WINDS TO VEER SE TO S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT IS LIKELY PLUS OR MINUS 1 HOUR
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WIND FORECAST.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
KPHN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE FORECAST ON TRACK. SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN THIS
MORNING ARE AROUND 4 FT...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
COMBINED WIND WAVES FROM SW WINDS 10-15 KT AND INCOMING SE SWELLS
SHOULD BUILD SEAS UP TO 4 FT FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST BELOW
SCA LEVELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCT HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE SAT THROUGH MON. THIS IS
DUE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AND CAUSE
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 2
INCHES. MESO BETA ELEMENT / CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KT OR LESS
SUGGEST SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/SEARS
MARINE...GOODMAN/JST
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
457 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
SURFACE TROUGH IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF IT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION. SO DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE THEM IS A QUESTION. STORM MOVEMENTS NEAR 15 KNOTS SO THEY
SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS. EARLIER MODEL OUTPUT WAS NOT TOTALLY
EXCITED ABOUT GENERATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH
THERE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. SO GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME
LIGHT AND CLOUDS DECREASE AFTER WHATEVER CONVECTION THERE IS IS
DONE. DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS ARE...TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. LOOK TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUN
TOMORROW WITH MODELS SHOWING A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND FIELD...MOSTLY
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. NAM 2M/NWP HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THIS
HOT PATTERN AND THINK IT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. GFS STILL LOOKS TOO
MOIST AND COOL IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SO BASED ON THE NAM 2M/NWP AND
850 MB TEMPERATURE CONCENSUS...RAISED MAXES FOR FRIDAY TO NEAR 100
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AT MID LEVELS LOOKS TO
KEEP IT DRY TOMORROW AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH NOW OVER UTAH
WILL HAVE MIGRATED TO THE CO-NM AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE
DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AS IT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SURFACE FEATURES
TO FOCUS CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN DAYS 6 AND 7 AS A CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS SCENARIO DOES UNFOLD THEN POPS IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIODS WILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND 30-32C THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR KGLD AND KMCK HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. CHANCES OF A STORM
TO AFFECT KGLD AND KMCK WILL BE LOW. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 12KFT AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SHORT TERM
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
SURFACE TROUGH IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF IT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION. SO DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE THEM IS A QUESTION. STORM MOVEMENTS NEAR 15 KNOTS SO THEY
SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS. EARLIER MODEL OUTPUT WAS NOT TOTALLY
EXCITED ABOUT GENERATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH
THERE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. SO GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME
LIGHT AND CLOUDS DECREASE AFTER WHATEVER CONVECTION THERE IS IS
DONE. DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS ARE...TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. LOOK TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUN
TOMORROW WITH MODELS SHOWING A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND FIELD...MOSTLY
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. NAM 2M/NWP HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THIS
HOT PATTERN AND THINK IT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. GFS STILL LOOKS TOO
MOIST AND COOL IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SO BASED ON THE NAM 2M/NWP AND
850 MB TEMPERATURE CONCENSUS...RAISED MAXES FOR FRIDAY TO NEAR 100
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AT MID LEVELS LOOKS TO
KEEP IT DRY TOMORROW AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH NOW OVER UTAH
WILL HAVE MIGRATED TO THE CO-NM AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE
DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AS IT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SURFACE FEATURES
TO FOCUS CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN DAYS 6 AND 7 AS A CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS SCENARIO DOES UNFOLD THEN POPS IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIODS WILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND 30-32C THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 00Z. DUE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAINTY ON MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIATION...COVERED THAT
POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS. DO NOT EXPECTED ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SHORT TERM
NWS GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
SURFACE TROUGH IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF IT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION. SO DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE THEM IS A QUESTION. STORM MOVEMENTS NEAR 15 KNOTS SO THEY
SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS. EARLIER MODEL OUTPUT WAS NOT TOTALLY
EXCITED ABOUT GENERATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH
THERE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. SO GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME
LIGHT AND CLOUDS DECREASE AFTER WHATEVER CONVECTION THERE IS IS
DONE. DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS ARE...TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. LOOK TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUN
TOMORROW WITH MODELS SHOWING A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND FIELD...MOSTLY
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. NAM 2M/NWP HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THIS
HOT PATTERN AND THINK IT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. GFS STILL LOOKS TOO
MOIST AND COOL IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SO BASED ON THE NAM 2M/NWP AND
850 MB TEMPERATURE CONCENSUS...RAISED MAXES FOR FRIDAY TO NEAR 100
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AT MID LEVELS LOOKS TO
KEEP IT DRY TOMORROW AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
THE CURRENT RIDGE BECOMES PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
A DEEP LATER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS SUCH DAY TO
DAY HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE MID- AND UPR-LVL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANNEL OF RICHER
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD HELP
FOSTER THE DEVELOP OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE
CWA NEARLY EACH LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THEREFORE THE WRN/NWRN
THIRD OF THE CWA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY THE
WAY THINGS APPEAR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2012
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 00Z. DUE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
UNCERNTAINTY ON MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIATION...COVERED THAT
POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS. DO NOT EXPECTED ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
557 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHIELD OF SOAKING RAINFALL CONTINUES TO EDGE
NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO.
THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE EDGE OF THE RAINFALL HAS SINCE DIED OFF
AND SO WILL EXPECT FEW INSTANCES OF THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DEWS ACCORDING TO
THE APPROACH OF THE RAINFALL. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A NEW ZFP AND SENT
GRIDS TO NDFD...HOWEVER...IF STRIKES ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO BE
NIL INTO THE EVENING...MAY PULL THUNDER FOR THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
ZFP ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TAKING SHAPE THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND UP
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AT THE NOSE OF THIS...A LARGE PCPN SHIELD IS
STEADILY OVERTAKING MORE OF THE JKL CWA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
THE THICK CLOUDS AND EARLY PCPN REALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOO HIGH IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND AS SUCH THE STABILITY
HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF MAINLY SHOWERS THERE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...THOUGH...MORE HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS LED TO HEALTHIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS AND EVEN THE ODD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE
CASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL AS
SHOWERS. SPECIFICALLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS AT 2 PM EDT VARIED FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHWEST WITH THE THINNER CLOUDS...TO LOWER 70S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE SHOWERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH HAS ALSO LIKELY
HELPED TO GENERATE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING WORKING AGAINST THE PCPN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
STRONGER IT ALSO HAS MOVED SLOWLY AND IS LEAVING BEHIND DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...GIVEN THE HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND FEATURES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. KENTUCKY
AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES TO THE
WEST AND EAST. THIS LOWER HEIGHT REGION IS POOLING WEAK PACKETS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHILE THE NEAREST TROUGH STAYS OFF TO THE NORTH
CLOSER TO GREAT LAKES AND NOT ABLE TO PUSH OUT THE LOST ENERGY...
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
ENERGY AND HIGH PWS OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH
FAVORING THE NAM12 FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAIN EVENT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FACTORS COMBINE WITH THE HIGH PWS
AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. SPECIFICALLY...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY PER THE EVOLUTION DEPICTED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12. THIS WILL GIVE A FAIRLY UNIFORM PATTERN OF HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE EXCESSIVE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...BUT STILL
LEAVE IT OUT FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES. THE PCPN WILL START TO WANE
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF IT SHIFTS NORTHWEST AND OUT OF THE
BULK OF THE CWA. THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE BEST RAINS WILL
HAVE MOVED ON BY THEN. THIS RAIN IS QUITE BENEFICIAL AND WILL
HOPEFULLY PUT A DECENT DENT IN OUR RAINFALL DEFICIT. AS FOR TEMPS...
KEPT THEM FAIRLY UNIFORM SPATIALLY AND ELEVATIONALLY...WITH THE
DIFFERENCES DRIVEN MORE BY THE RAIN PATTERN AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
OF THE AIR RATHER THAN ANY TERRAIN DIFFERENCES.
FOLLOWED THE MET TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MOST CLOSELY FOR THE
SHORT TERM AS THEY LOOKED REASONABLE FOR THE PCPN PATTERN AND MATCHED
WELL WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...GENERALLY ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY ANCHORED ACROSS BERMUDA...KEEPING A
PERSISTENT FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPOSING THE REGION TO PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
ANYTHING THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS CENTERED AROUND
THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH A SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL REIGN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
THE TIMING OF THE PCPN THREAT FROM THE EARLIER TAF HAS BEEN WORKING
OUT. EXPECT THEM ALL TO START REPORTING PCPN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH BRIEF DIPS DOWN TO MVFR IN NY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WILL GO
WITH VCTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND A TEMPO FOR IFR
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SCATTERED SHRA
WITH VSBY IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR AS THE NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO TAKE EFFECT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TAKING SHAPE THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND UP
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AT THE NOSE OF THIS...A LARGE PCPN SHIELD IS
STEADILY OVERTAKING MORE OF THE JKL CWA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
THE THICK CLOUDS AND EARLY PCPN REALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOO HIGH IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND AS SUCH THE STABILITY
HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF MAINLY SHOWERS THERE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...THOUGH...MORE HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS LED TO HEALTHIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS AND EVEN THE ODD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE
CASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL AS
SHOWERS. SPECIFICALLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS AT 2 PM EDT VARIED FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHWEST WITH THE THINNER CLOUDS...TO LOWER 70S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE SHOWERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH HAS ALSO LIKELY
HELPED TO GENERATE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING WORKING AGAINST THE PCPN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
STRONGER IT ALSO HAS MOVED SLOWLY AND IS LEAVING BEHIND DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...GIVEN THE HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND FEATURES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. KENTUCKY
AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES TO THE
WEST AND EAST. THIS LOWER HEIGHT REGION IS POOLING WEAK PACKETS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHILE THE NEAREST TROUGH STAYS OFF TO THE NORTH
CLOSER TO GREAT LAKES AND NOT ABLE TO PUSH OUT THE LOST ENERGY...
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
ENERGY AND HIGH PWS OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH
FAVORING THE NAM12 FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAIN EVENT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FACTORS COMBINE WITH THE HIGH PWS
AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. SPECIFICALLY...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY PER THE EVOLUTION DEPICTED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12. THIS WILL GIVE A FAIRLY UNIFORM PATTERN OF HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE EXCESSIVE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...BUT STILL
LEAVE IT OUT FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES. THE PCPN WILL START TO WANE
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF IT SHIFTS NORTHWEST AND OUT OF THE
BULK OF THE CWA. THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE BEST RAINS WILL
HAVE MOVED ON BY THEN. THIS RAIN IS QUITE BENEFICIAL AND WILL
HOPEFULLY PUT A DECENT DENT IN OUR RAINFALL DEFICIT. AS FOR TEMPS...
KEPT THEM FAIRLY UNIFORM SPATIALLY AND ELEVATIONALLY...WITH THE
DIFFERENCES DRIVEN MORE BY THE RAIN PATTERN AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
OF THE AIR RATHER THAN ANY TERRAIN DIFFERENCES.
FOLLOWED THE MET TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MOST CLOSELY FOR THE
SHORT TERM AS THEY LOOKED REASONABLE FOR THE PCPN PATTERN AND MATCHED
WELL WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...GENERALLY ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY ANCHORED ACROSS BERMUDA...KEEPING A
PERSISTENT FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPOSING THE REGION TO PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
ANYTHING THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS CENTERED AROUND
THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH A SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL REIGN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
THE TIMING OF THE PCPN THREAT FROM THE EARLIER TAF HAS BEEN WORKING
OUT. EXPECT THEM ALL TO START REPORTING PCPN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH BRIEF DIPS DOWN TO MVFR IN NY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WILL GO
WITH VCTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND A TEMPO FOR IFR
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SCATTERED SHRA
WITH VSBY IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR AS THE NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO TAKE EFFECT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
512 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS, IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE HEADING TO THE EAST
COAST, WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WHICH
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING, AND
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATING TO COVER AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH
SUNSET.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA, HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AS RECENT
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY NEAR THE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE FRONT AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT, COUPLED WITH DETAILS FROM
RECENT NAM MODEL OUTPUT, SHOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO A COUPLE FACTORS. THE FIRST FACTOR IS INCREASING
SURFACE LAYER HUMIDITY THAT WILL PROMOTE INCREASED VERTICAL
INSTABILITY. THE SECOND FACTOR IS A TREND TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZED
LIFTING MECHANISMS. AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE INCREASED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER SURFACE
DEW POINTS, A MESOSCALE FEATURE THAT COULD BE TERMED A DEW POINT
WARM FRONT. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, CAN PROVIDE ANOTHER SOURCE OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH ITS PRECEDING DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
DESPITE THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, CONCUR WITH SPC
REGARDING RESTRICTED SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO LACK OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THERE CAN BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM RAINS DUE TO LARGER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT OR TRAINING.
SOIL CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 2 HOURS OR LESS TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES.
FORECASTED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD, BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE DUE TO AN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, MORE HUMID SURFACE LAYER, AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS, WHICH SHOWED MOST PERIODS
WITH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY.
AT UPPER LEVELS, THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MAY BE SHEARED AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERHAPS UPPER OHIO VALLEY, BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE THURSDAY.
SO EXPECT CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES UP TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BASED
ON HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IN GENERAL WAS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS AND ECMWF MOS BUT CLOSE TO NAEFS MEDIAN VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN POTENTIALLY
PROVIDE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY MVFR FOG AND HAZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ONLY INCLUDED SUCH RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TYPICALLY-PREFERRED TAF SITES SUCH AS KFKL AND KZZV.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG AND HAZE EACH MORNING, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AT ANY TIME.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1257 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S THROUGH THE WEEK...AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
VERY QUIET BUT BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ONGOING OUT THE WINDOW...WITH
EARLIER THOUGHTS CONFIRMED AS DEW POINTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
TANKING. IN SPITE OF THIS...A RATHER HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS FIRED UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS...BUT SHOULD RATHER QUICKLY BE ON THE DECLINE AS MIXING
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. GOING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S (PERHAPS A SPOT
OR TWO NEAR 90) WILL WORK JUST FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN ONE
BEING TO FURTHER LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. SETUP ACROSS THE
REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...FEATURING
OVERALL FAIRLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE
EXPANSIVE AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES FROM THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES RIGHT ON BACK INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...LIKELY A FEEDBACK MECHANISM FROM THE ONGOING VERY DRY
CONDITIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. PWATS HAVE INCHED UP OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...UP TO A WHOPPING 0.57 INCHES PER 12Z APX
RAOB...BUT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE IS UP TOP...WHILE THE LOW LEVELS
HAVE ACTUALLY FURTHER DRIED OUT FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE LIMITED MIXING TODAY GIVEN VERY LIGHT WIND
FIELDS...MIXING UP TO 800MB STILL PUTS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
FIRMLY IN AN AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HINTS ON MET GUIDANCE AND
LATEST HRRR NUMBERS BOOST CONFIDENCE THAT READINGS MAY DIP INTO
THE 30S IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON (AWAY FROM THE LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE NEAR THE COASTS...OF COURSE). COMBINED WITH HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN WEAK ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE MIN RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN
SPOTS...WITH GOING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MENTION DEFINITELY
WARRANTED.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...SAVE FOR
RAISING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO THE WATER BEFORE LAKE
BREEZES KICK IN AFTER 17Z. COULD ALSO SEE A RENEWED CU FIELD
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN AN AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE LAID OUT OVER THE U.P...WITH EVEN AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE AT A ROGUE BRIEF SHOWER...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT GIVEN SLOWLY
GROWING CAP UP AROUND 600MB. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SIMPLY A BEAUTIFUL
SUMMERTIME DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ENJOY!
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. BATCH OF MID CLOUD PRESENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS (CONVECTIVE DEBRIS) ALSO NOSING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UP THAT WAY ALREADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
LOW AMPLITUDE 4-WAVE LONG WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WITH SUBTLE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY WITH THE MAIN FLOW BOTTLED UP
ACROSS CANADA. AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
FIXED FROM MICHIGAN TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FLOW PRESENT ACROSS SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO PRODUCING A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION UP THAT WAY. ONE SMALL MCS IS CAUGHT UP
IN RELATIVE WEAK FLOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIFTING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND PRODUCING A NICE
DUMPING OF RAIN FOR THAT AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH FAIR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF
SUPERIOR NOT MAKING ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...DYING AS IT GETS INTO
THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF ONTARIO. SO...THIS FEATURE
POSES LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THREAT TO THIS CWA...BUT OF COURSE WILL
WATCH IT. SOME ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MAY DRIFT INTO THE NRN PARTS
OF THE CWA HOWEVER...ALONG WITH A BATCH OF MID CLOUD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE...
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...DAYTIME CU POTENTIAL
LOOKING PRETTY LOW TODAY...UNLESS SFC DEWPOINTS STAY UP A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...SOLID MID 80S...A LITTLE COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE SHORES WITH LIGHT WINDS/LAKE BREEZES SETTING UP BY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/LOW DEWPOINTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS MORE SFC MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF AND ALSO HAS A
MORE DEVELOPED 500 MB WAVE MOVING INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GFS ALSO
HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES WHICH SPILLS
UP NORTH TO US. THINK THAT THIS IS TOO MOIST STILL AS THE SFC
MOISTURE BIAS, SHOWN IN THE SFC DEWPOINTS, IS TRYING TO DEVELOPING
THINGS TOO MUCH. INTERESTINGLY, THE MOISTURE AT IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER, LOOKS THE SAME. SO IF THE SFC MOISTURE WASN`T SO HIGH ON GFS
WOULD THINK IT WOULD LOOK LIKE THE ECMWF. NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING LATE(AFTER 21Z) IN S LOWER AND MOVES IT UP INTO NW LOWER.
NOT SURE I BELIEVE THIS FEATURE EITHER AS IT IS USUALLY DRY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS. SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE POPS DRY OVER THE
REGION.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RETURN FLOW JUST STARTING, WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT THINGS CONTINUE
AND FALL APART OVERNIGHT, BUT THAT SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE,
PROBABLY FROM THE EXCESSIVE MOISTURE. THE 500 MB WAVE TO THE NW WILL
BE IN W UPPER BY THE 12Z, SO WILL THINK THAT THE CLOUDS MAY START TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE MORNING. THE NAM IS WAY TOO WEST AS
WELL, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS KICKING OFF RAIN FROM SMALL AMOUNTS OF
CAPE (BMJ PARAMETRIZATION). SO IF THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT IF IT DOES DURING THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS
THE MOISTURE THAT IS EDGING ITS WAY NORTH THAT COULD GET INTO
GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK WAY TOO WET COMPARED TO THE WAY
THIS YEAR HAS TRENDED. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. THINK THAT
THIS DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE IS RATHER THIN ON THE ECMWF WITH
LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES MOVING INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE NIGHT DRY AS WELL. THINK THAT THE GFS AND
NAM ARE BOTH SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/PARAMETRIZATION OVER
DEVELOPMENT OR MOISTURE BIAS. ITS HARD TO TAKE THESE MODELS TOO
SERIOUSLY.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUNDAY, MOISTURE GETS INTO THE
REGION WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN NE LOWER AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. MONDAY, CONTINUED TO PUSH THE POPS DOWN AS ONE WAVE MOVES
OFF, AND THE NEXT WAVE IS STILL UPSTREAM. THERE IS A BETTER JET
STREAK FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA, AND LOOKS LIKE DRIVES
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH IN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS KEEPS THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN E UPPER AND IN THE TIP OF THE MIT. GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SFC LOW THAT SPUN UP ON LAST NIGHT`S RUN. IT
IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. SO THE RAIN STARTS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY, LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE PUSHING
THUNDER INTO MORE OF N LOWER. GFS IS NOW BOMBING A SFC LOW TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SFC TROUGH
AND DECENT NW FLOW. LOW POPS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NOTHING AS SEVERE AS
THE GFS IDEA. WEDNESDAY, NOW THE MODELS FLIP WITH THE ECMWF HAVING
ALL THE RAIN IN NW FLOW AND THE TROUGH SINKING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS MAJOR SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. GUESS,
IF I GO WITH THE ECMWF WITH LESS DEVELOPED LOW/SFC TROUGH, SHOULD GO
WITH IT, WITH THE WEAKER SFC HIGH, AND LESS SUBSIDENCE. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
AS QUIET AS IT GETS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
LAKE BREEZES AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO LIGHT OR CALM WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS INTO
MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
LIGHT WINDS/WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TREND FOR INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS DURING THE DAY WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BIT OF A MESSY FCST OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SW...WANING ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE BACKS
OFF...A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP IN FROM MANITOBA AND
HELP NUDGE ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN INCREASE IN MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAGGED IN FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH
MUCAPES INCRG TO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TNGT THRU TMRW. HOWEVER...
POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE. HAVE
CAPPED POPS IN THE CHC RANGE SINCE THIS WILL NOT BE ANY KIND OF
WASHOUT BUT RATHER SHORT-DURATION PRECIP OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY. POPS INCRS TNGT WITH HIGHEST POPS DURG THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGHEST QPF OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
THAT SAID...AM NOT LOOKING FOR SITES TO RECEIVE MORE THAN 0.25
INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND THRU THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. WARM SECTORING WILL PLAY A PART AS THE COLD FRONT SLOGS
ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERED A BIT BY
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO ARND 90.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THRU SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WHILE MODEST UPPER FORCING
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSES THRU THE REGION. LAPSE RATES STILL ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING SHOULD PROMOTE
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ONGOING FRI EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
SHIFT E THRU THE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVE. AGAIN...CAPPED POPS IN THE
CHC RANGE DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE/LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT MAY AGAIN WELL BE THAT LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL FRIDAY MAY SEE IT AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHILE SOME
SPOTS SEE PRECIP ON NEITHER DAY...AGAIN THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY.
THE CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI SAT EVE THEN EXIT THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY ON SUN. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FRI EVE
BUT AS THE FORCING SHIFTS E...THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. EVEN WITH THE COLD FROPA...THERE WILL NOT BE A DROP IN
TEMPS BEHIND AS A WARM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION LOOKS TO RE-EXTEND ITSELF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BY SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACRS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN STRONG CAPPING DESPITE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO
ARND 70. THIS WILL NUDGE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100-105
DEGREES RANGE...SO THIS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SUN NIGHT
AND MON NIGHT MAY CREATE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. AS THE BUBBLE
HIGH SHIFTS E...THE HEAT WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO CENTRAL WI TUE
THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE BY WED AS NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WITH NW
UPPER FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TO THE AREA. AS FOR PRECIP...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK UP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
SIDE FROM A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES GLIDING THROUGH NRN
MN WHICH MAY EXTEND ENOUGH S INTO CENTRAL MN TO SPARK OFF ISOLD
CONVECTION. CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT
EVEN HAVING ANYTHING MENTIONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE NOTED NORTHEAST OF RWF AND WEST OF MSP. WE DO
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF MN THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SLOWLY MEANDERING FROM EASTERN ND AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE MN/ND BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND THAT WILL TRANSLATED EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN BY THE
21-24Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF TS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW. DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT TS ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE IN THE
METRO AREA...SO HAVE NO SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL 12Z...AND TRIED TO
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND OR THUNDER WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS PRECIPITATION MOVING TOWARD MSP
AROUND 03Z OR LATER BUT VERY WEAK ECHOS AND WRF SUPPORTS NO SHRA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HENCE SHRA AT 12Z AND PROBABLY LATER.
/OUTLOOK/
SATURDAY...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW AT 5 TO 10KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS W AT 5-10 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS S-SW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPC/DRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST... WITH THE
PRIMARY ISSUE BEING CHANCES FOR PCPN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA... BOOSTING PW VALUES
AND HELPING TO KEEP A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW SHORTWAVES AND A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SATURDAY... WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING TIED TO THOSE FEATURES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE. MADE SOME ATTEMPT TO LIMIT BEST
PCPN CHANCES TO NARROWER WINDOWS IN TIME... BUT POPS STILL MAKE IT
LOOK TO BE WETTER THAN IT WILL SEEMS SINCE THERE CERTAINLY DOESN/T
LOOK TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN... SIMPLY PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHRA/TSRA. IN THE BIG PICTURE... THE UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL OR FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE HEART OF THE JET REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER RIDGE COULD MIGRATE EAST TO THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THAT SCENARIO... AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES STILL OFFER A MULTITUDE OF SOLUTIONS. THAT CHANGE WOULD
OBVIOUSLY LEAD US BACK INTO A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN... BUT EVEN WITHOUT THAT WE STILL LOOK TO
KEEP READINGS THAT ARE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL AS WE/VE SEEN FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY WE SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA CREEP INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST... ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER
WILL OBVIOUSLY STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... A SECOND JET MAX
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN OVER WYOMING... AND THIS WILL
WORK EAST THROUGH THE DAY... AND HELP TO NUDGE THE 850MB THETA-E
RIDGE FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR AREA... AND ENHANCE CHANCES FOR PCPN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL
GRUDGINGLY MOVE EAST OVER THE UPCOMING 48 HOURS... WHICH LEADS TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR
REGION. 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E PROGS FROM THE NAM BRING
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND LINGER IT
INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
WILL COMBINE BEST WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING ON FRIDAY AS A
DECENT SHORTWAVE DROPS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE
INSTABILITY BUILDS IN TODAY... WE SHOULD SEE MUCAPE VALUES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AOA 1500 J/KG MUCH OF THE TIME. POPS LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH AND HELPS DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH EASTWARD. FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM... WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS... AND MANAGE TO KICK MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR
AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL... THINGS LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER... CAPE
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...
MAINLY ON FRIDAY WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY... AND WORK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT... PCPN
LOOKS TO BE MOST FOCUSED NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA... SO TAPERED POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY... AND TRIED TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. KEPT SOME LOW POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS... BUT THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DISPLACE
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO... SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY IF THIS TREND PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE NOTED NORTHEAST OF RWF AND WEST OF MSP. WE DO
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF MN THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SLOWLY MEANDERING FROM EASTERN ND AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE MN/ND BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND THAT WILL TRANSLATED EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN BY THE
21-24Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF TS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW. DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT TS ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE IN THE
METRO AREA...SO HAVE NO SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL 12Z...AND TRIED TO
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND OR THUNDER WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS PRECIPITATION MOVING TOWARD MSP
AROUND 03Z OR LATER BUT VERY WEAK ECHOS AND WRF SUPPORTS NO SHRA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HENCE SHRA AT 12Z AND PROBABLY LATER.
/OUTLOOK/
SATURDAY...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW AT 5 TO 10KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS W AT 5-10 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS S-SW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
TRH/DRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...AT AROUND 08KTS...WILL
START FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BACKING TO
MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND A MID LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT NEARING THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH THE BULK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY RELEGATED TO CANADA...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH ONLY A ~60KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SOME OF THIS INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
OVERALL TODAYS FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST 21Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONSENSUS FROM OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM AND HRRR REMAINING
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE SAME.
INTERESTING TO NOTE SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA ARE REALLY SPIKING THIS MORNING...WITH DEW POINTS FROM
KJYR TO KK61 ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS MOISTURE RETURN HAS NOT YET INFILTRATED OUR
WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S FROM KODX TO KLXN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST...THUS RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES. 12Z NAM SUGGESTS 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES WILL ONLY APPROACH 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES FARTHER EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS ALSO HELPING PROMOTE
WEAK DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES...WITH THESE VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL
THIS...CONTINUE TO FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WHAT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A QUICK OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...DAKOTAS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO
REALLY IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER...WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS MINNESOTA...IOWA...AND MISSOURI.
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE NOT EXACTLY THE BEST
SETUP...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT AT THIS TIME.
CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY...SHEAR WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. AT LEAST 1500 TO 2000
J/KG REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN BOTH CASES DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR LESS
THAN 30 KTS IN BOTH CASES. GIVEN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON
FRIDAY...AND FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WORDING THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONG TO SEVERE WORDING ON FRIDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BOTH TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS HIGHER ALL THREE DAYS AND AN ONE INSTANCE WAS AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES HIGHER...WENT AHEAD WITH A FEW DEGREES INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER AND THE SURFACE TROUGH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR BUT STILL
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL
SEE A RETURN OF HOT CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. WITH THE HOT AIRMASS SETTLING
IN...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY IN THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SURFACE BOUNDARY FEATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE WEEK OF NEXT
WEEK AS FRONT MAY TRY TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY LOCATION THIS FAR OUT
IS NOT HIGH AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...MORE IN LINE WITH
ECMWF THAN GFS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/1013 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO THE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK VORTICITY LOBES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO RIPPLE NE THROUGH ERN TN...BRUSHING EXTREME WRN
NC AS WELL. FARTHER EAST...WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LIFT AND EVEN SLOWER TO SCATTER IN THE MOIST PROFILES WITH
WEAK UPGLIDE APPARENT. SFC BASED CAPE ON THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE SE FRINGE OF THE AREA. THESE VALUES
WILL RISE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...AND VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE SHALLOW WEDGE LAYER WHERE BREAKS
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING RAOB AND CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT...SO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS QUITE LIMITED. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES IN THE MTNS TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES NEAR CLT...THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY LEAD TO
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE RATES ARE HIGHEST AND ANY DEGREE OF
TRAINING OR UPSLOPE ANCHORING DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP THE BEST
AFTN/EVENING POPS FOCUSED ON THE MTNS CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING
AND WHERE SE TO S UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEST. WILL KEEP THE BEST TSTM
CHANCES ALONG THE SE FRINGE IN THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY. POPS MAY
THEN FOCUS ON THE ERN ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES BUT
UPSLOPE CONTINUES.
850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN MODEL PROFILES ON FRI COMPARED TO TODAY
AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
LIFT AND PARTIALLY SCATTER A BIT MORE QUICKLY...LEADING TO WARMER
MAXES...AND INSTABILITY BUBBLING TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE. WILL
WARM MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY OVER TODAY AND FEATURE LIKELY
WEST TO SOLID CHC EAST POPS...WITH MORE OF A THUNDER MENTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/TENN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR THE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME/BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE AND UNSEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A DEEP (ALBEIT WEAK)
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSRA OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS OCCURRING ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY PUSH AS
FAR WEST/NORTH AS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY (NOT AT ALL UNUSUAL IN SE
FLOW SITUATIONS)...SO SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE CARRIED THERE.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE ADVECTS MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND THERE IS IN FACT VERY LITTLE QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THEREFORE...THE BEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY TOKEN LOW/SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
HOWEVER...MAXES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE
AIR MASS BEGINS TO DRY OUT SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 120 PM THURSDAY...A PRETTY TYPICAL MID-SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE
FEATURED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF BERMUDA HIPRES
LINGERS ATOP THE SE CONUS AND LEE/PIEDMONT SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPS.
EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MAX TEMPS
AROUND CLIMO AND DIURNAL SLIGHT AND/OR SMALL TSTM PROBABILITIES. THE
OP AND ENS MEAN ECMWF IS ADVERTISING DEVELOPING ERN CONUS L/WV
TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON THIS AND THE
PERCEIVED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SAID THOUGH WILL
HAVE...WILL NUDGE POPS UPWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO A MORE SOLID
DAILY CHANCE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE AIRFIELD REMAINS DOMINATED BY WEAK CAD LIKE
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHER
INSTABILITY GRADIENT NOT FAR TO THE SE. STILL THINK IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE INSTABILITY TO IMPROVE WITH ANY MINOR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND THE HRRR DELAYS CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA
UNTIL 22Z. WILL THUS FEATURE TEMPO TSRA 21Z TO 01Z WITH SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A RETURN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TO MVFR CIRCA 14Z TO 15Z
FRIDAY...WITH ANY NEW CONVECTION LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE TO ENE FLOW...BECOMING LIGHT
ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...MOIST UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE
A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION PERSISTS OVER THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES.
THIS SHOULD MEAN SHOWERS FOR KAVL AND KHKY FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER FOR THE
UPSTATE TAF SITES WHERE BREAKS IN THE LOW OVERCAST MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR ON AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT...WITH A RETURN TO IFR OVERNIGHT...AND LOW IFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS WILL STEADILY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE SHOWERS HOLDING ON
THE LONGEST AT KAVL TO KHKY. EXPECT PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW AT THE
FOOTHILL SITES AND LIGHT SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...RETURNING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN MORE OF A
DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE BEST TSTM CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY...WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGHOUT.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO THE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK WAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO RIPPLE NE THROUGH ERN TN...BRUSHING EXTREME WRN
NC AS WELL. FARTHER EAST...WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LIFT AND EVEN SLOWER TO SCATTER IN THE MOIST PROFILES WITH
WEAK UPGLIDE APPARENT. SFC BASED CAPE ON THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE SE FRINGE OF THE AREA. THESE VALUES
WILL RISE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...AND VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE SHALLOW WEDGE LAYER WHERE BREAKS
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING RAOB AND CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...WINDS ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT...SO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS QUITE LIMITED. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES IN THE MTNS TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES NEAR CLT...THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY LEAD TO
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE RATES ARE HIGHEST AND ANY DEGREE OF
TRAINING OR UPSLOPE ANCHORING DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP THE BEST
AFTN/EVENING POPS FOCUSED ON THE MTNS CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING
AND WHERE SE TO S UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEST. WILL KEEP THE BEST TSTM
CHANCES ALONG THE SE FRINGE IN THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY. POPS MAY
THEN FOCUS ON THE ERN ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES BUT
UPSLOPE CONTINUES.
850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN MODEL PROFILES ON FRI COMPARED TO TODAY
AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
LIFT AND SCATTER A BIT MORE QUICKLY...LEADING TO WARMER MAXES...AND
INSTABILITY BUBBLING TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE. WILL WARM MAX TEMPS
AT LEAST A CATEGORY OVER TODAY AND FEATURE LIKELY WEST TO SOLID CHC
EAST POPS...WITH MORE OF A THUNDER MENTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT 3 AM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE TO THE
WEST LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO
LEAVE OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING EITHER DAY...MANY
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR FLOODING FOLLOWING SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAINFALL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...
BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN A MOIST AIR MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 120 PM THURSDAY...A PRETTY TYPICAL MID-SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE
FEATURED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF BERMUDA HIPRES
LINGERS ATOP THE SE CONUS AND LEE/PIEDMONT SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPS.
EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MAX TEMPS
AROUND CLIMO AND DIURNAL SLIGHT AND/OR SMALL TSTM PROBABILITIES. THE
OP AND ENS MEAN ECMWF IS ADVERTISING DEVELOPING ERN CONUS L/WV
TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON THIS AND THE
PERCEIVED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SAID THOUGH WILL
HAVE...WILL NUDGE POPS UPWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO A MORE SOLID
DAILY CHANCE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE AIRFIELD REMAINS DOMINATED BY WEAK CAD LIKE
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHER
INSTABILITY GRADIENT NOT FAR TO THE SE. STILL THINK IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE INSTABILITY TO IMPROVE WITH ANY MINOR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND THE HRRR DELAYS CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA
UNTIL 22Z. WILL THUS FEATURE TEMPO TSRA 21Z TO 01Z WITH SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A RETURN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TO MVFR CIRCA 14Z TO 15Z
FRIDAY...WITH ANY NEW CONVECTION LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE TO ENE FLOW...BECOMING LIGHT
ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...MOIST UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE
A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION PERSISTS OVER THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES.
THIS SHOULD MEAN SHOWERS FOR KAVL AND KHKY FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER FOR THE
UPSTATE TAF SITES WHERE BREAKS IN THE LOW OVERCAST MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR ON AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT...WITH A RETURN TO IFR OVERNIGHT...AND LOW IFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS WILL STEADILY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE SHOWERS HOLDING ON
THE LONGEST AT KAVL TO KHKY. EXPECT PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW AT THE
FOOTHILL SITES AND LIGHT SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...RETURNING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN MORE OF A
DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE BEST TSTM CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY...WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGHOUT.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A FAIRLY DECENT CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
UPDATE...
TO UPDATE POPS
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FAIRLY GOOD CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
UPDATE...
TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE GRIDS
DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SENT
OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
CREATED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCH LIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WHERE WE HAVE RECORDED THE
MOST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR 5SM AND LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEATHER NIL FOR ALL FIVE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DO NOT LOOK PROMISING. DRIER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH...AS THE OLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED SOUTH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
THIS OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...I HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH 10 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH CALM
WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...I DECIDED TO GO WITH PATCH FOG FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEATHER NIL ACROSS THE BOARD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DECREASED CLOUDS TODAY WILL HELP PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO MAINLY THE LOWER TO MID 90S RANGE. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LOWS NEAR PERSISTENCE LOOK ON TRACK.
HUBER
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS INTO MISSOURI THIS
MORNING...IS INDICATED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY...THEN RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BOTH THE EC AND
GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...PERHAPS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST
TEXAS. WHILE THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE THE I-10
CORRIDOR...CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES. OTHERWISE...HIGHS CONTINUE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE... AND WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 97 69 95 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 71 97 73 94 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 71 94 71 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DANIELS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1135 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
.UPDATE...
TO UPDATE POPS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FAIRLY GOOD CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
UPDATE...
TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE GRIDS
DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SENT
OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
CREATED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCH LIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WHERE WE HAVE RECORDED THE
MOST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR 5SM AND LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEATHER NIL FOR ALL FIVE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DO NOT LOOK PROMISING. DRIER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH...AS THE OLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED SOUTH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
THIS OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...I HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH 10 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH CALM
WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...I DECIDED TO GO WITH PATCH FOG FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEATHER NIL ACROSS THE BOARD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DECREASED CLOUDS TODAY WILL HELP PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO MAINLY THE LOWER TO MID 90S RANGE. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LOWS NEAR PERSISTENCE LOOK ON TRACK.
HUBER
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS INTO MISSOURI THIS
MORNING...IS INDICATED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY...THEN RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BOTH THE EC AND
GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...PERHAPS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST
TEXAS. WHILE THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE THE I-10
CORRIDOR...CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES. OTHERWISE...HIGHS CONTINUE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE... AND WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 94 71 97 69 95 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 94 71 97 73 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 93 71 94 71 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DANIELS