Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/11/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON AT
THIS TIME WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. VARIOUS NWP
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...09/17Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DEPICT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF TUCSON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TUE...
SHOWERS/TSTMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP VICINITY WHITE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SWWD TOWARD AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN
CONCERN GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS OUTFLOWS MOVE SWWD ACROSS THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...MADE
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POPS TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BY TUE EVENING FOR MUCH OF
SE AZ WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. GIVEN INCREASED
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE
NIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD WITH DRY CONDTIONS ELSEWHERE.
WED...
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING FORECAST DETAIL. MOISTURE IS
GENERALLY PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS SE AZ AS PER THE 09/12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...09/12Z NAM AND 09/15Z SREF FAVORS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON
WITH MINUSCULE POPS ELSEWHERE. NOT TO SAY THAT THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WILL BE PRECIP-FREE. HOWEVER...ESELY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR THE
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND LOCALES SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON AS PER
THE NAM/SREF. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STANDARD MONSOON
FORECAST OF CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ANY REFINEMENTS TO THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
ISSUANCES.
THUR-SUN...
PERHAPS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ERN
SECTIONS SAT. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS THUR-SUN.
HIGH TEMPS TUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS TO THEN OCCUR WED-MON.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT -TSRA/-SHRA THRU THIS EVENING THEN BULK OF PRECIP TO
END BY 10/12Z. SCT -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY EWD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR 11/00Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. EXPECT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
BF
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...
THERE WL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING AT THE TAF SITES...KALS...KCOS AND KPUB. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOCAL IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THOUGH DOES
INDICATE DRIER AIR ACROSS WYOMING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED POPCORN SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WITH SATELLITE DATA INDICATING CLOUD TOP WARMING WITH THE
DIMINISHING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
EARLY THIS MORNING...MODELS CONTINUING TO BE OVERDONE WITH
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR NSSL WRF WHICH HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH LAST NIGHTS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION KEEPING A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FLOW WITH
H5 WINDS PROGGED BETWEEN 10-15KTS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THOUGH BEST MOISTURE GETS PUSHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ACROSS WYOMING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH NO EVIDENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...CONVECTION
LOOKS TO MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP
CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS MOVING TODAY AND NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR REMAINING VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
COOL MOIST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -MW
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ON TUESDAY...WE START TO TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AROUND SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL START TO TRANSITION BACK TOWARD
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AROUND THIS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN ON MONDAY BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HEAT WAVE WILL RETURN. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON WILL RETURN. THIS SHOULD BRING AN UPSWING IN
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WALDO CANYON FIRE SCAR WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. LW
AVIATION...
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION MAINLY
TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
28/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
458 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THOUGH DOES
INDICATE DRIER AIR ACROSS WYOMING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED POPCORN SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WITH SATELLITE DATA INDICATING CLOUD TOP WARMING WITH THE
DIMINISHING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
EARLY THIS MORNING...MODELS CONTINUING TO BE OVERDONE WITH
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR NSSL WRF WHICH HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH LAST NIGHTS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION KEEPING A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FLOW WITH
H5 WINDS PROGGED BETWEEN 10-15KTS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THOUGH BEST MOISTURE GETS PUSHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ACROSS WYOMING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH NO EVIDENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...CONVECTION
LOOKS TO MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP
CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS MOVING TODAY AND NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR REMAINING VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
COOL MOIST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -MW
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ON TUESDAY...WE START TO TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AROUND SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL START TO TRANSITION BACK TOWARD
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AROUND THIS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN ON MONDAY BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HEAT WAVE WILL RETURN. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON WILL RETURN. THIS SHOULD BRING AN UPSWING IN
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WALDO CANYON FIRE SCAR WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. LW
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION MAINLY
TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS WEEK...
PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS HEADING SE THROUGH
CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NY STATE. LATEST HRRR HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AND WEAKENS IT AS IT ENTERS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY IN
HARTFORD COUNTY CT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE
PATCHY AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
DEWPOINTS VERY WELL AND ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A BIT
LONGER. A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS TO OCCUR TOMORROW WITH
THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES BUT VERTICAL PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE DRY.
MOS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGH SO DROPPED THEM
SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A GREATER CHANCE OF FOG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY THU THROUGH SAT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AND MORE HUMIDITY SUN AND MON
CONFIDENCE...
HIGH THU THROUGH SAT AND MODERATE SUN/MON.
DETAILS... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THU THROUGH SAT AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LIFTS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER
CAROLINAS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NW
FRINGES OF CLOUD SHIELD REACH CAPE COD.
AS A RESULT WE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THU THROUGH SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY HEADS OFFSHORE.
RETURN SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY BY WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN ONSET AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEP US
DRY SAT AND SHOW HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT MON AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WARM FRONT EXITS REGION IN MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW FAVORABLE
TIMING FOR CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP BUT EXPECT TIMING MAY CHANGE
GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST. FOR NOW WE WILL SHOW BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WITH DEPARTING WARM FRONT THEN POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS REFORMING MON AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LEAN TOWARD GFS MOS...HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN 60S WITH SOME COOLING BY SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.
VFR THROUGH WED. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND VSBYS SHOULD NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR.
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE MEANS SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED MORNING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE INCLUDING TIMING OF SEA BREEZE WED.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WNAWAVE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
RUNNING HALF A FOOT TO ABOUT ONE FOOT OVER REALITY SO HAVE EASED
BACK ON THE WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT. WITH THIS...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THU AND FRI WITH WINDS BELOW 25KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FT.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON THE OPEN
WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET THU AND THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK.
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ON S
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AND HAS ACTED TO
BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEA-BOARD. THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT RELIEF TO SOME
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/FL PENINSULA. THE MAIN SUPPRESSION FROM
THIS RIDGE HOWEVER IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...AND THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING IS SHOWING A MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION. THE PW VALUE OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS
APPROACHING 1.90"...WHICH IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES ARE IN THE 126-129K RANGE...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT AT NORMAL
LEVELS FOR JULY...AND CERTAINLY NOT HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE COLUMNS.
IF THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN OUR PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING OUR GRADIENT
LIGHT AND OUR FLOW DOMINATED BY NOCTURNAL/MORNING LAND BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING - WEDNESDAY)...
THE SEA BREEZE IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS HAS
BEGUN INITIATING SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. LOOKS LIKE
A FAIRLY TYPICAL COVERAGE WITH 30-40% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AROUND 50% WILL BE FOUND DOWNS TOWARD PUNTA
GORDA/FT MYERS...WHERE THE MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAWN...EXPECTING THE DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO BE
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET UP DECENT COVERAGE OF
NOCTURNAL/MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN AT THE BEACHES...AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE CONVECTION PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS...AND OVER THE LANDMASS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERS. CURRENT POP GRIDS
ADVERTISE 50-60% POPS NORTH AND 60-65% POPS SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OVERALL THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER
PERIODIC STORMS. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES/CLOUD DEBRIS/AND LESS
EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE SE U.S. AND EASTERN GULF FROM
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TUTT LIKE FEATURE TRACKS
WESTWARD OVER CUBA AND THEN INTO THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH END SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT DOWN TURN IN POPS BUT STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GETTING A EARLY START NEAR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KPIE AND KTPA. BOTH TERMINALS WILL BE IN TH VICINITY OF
STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER FROM SARASOTA TO FT. MYERS...STORMS WILL BE
INITIATING IN THE VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH KSRQ AND KPIE BECOME MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CELL. ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. DESPITE THE TIGHTER GRADIENT...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENHANCED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 76 90 / 30 50 30 60
FMY 74 90 74 92 / 30 60 30 60
GIF 74 93 74 93 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 75 91 75 90 / 30 50 30 60
BKV 72 92 72 93 / 30 50 30 60
SPG 79 91 78 90 / 30 50 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AVIATION...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AND HAS ACTED TO
BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEA-BOARD. THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT RELIEF TO SOME
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/FL PENINSULA. THE MAIN SUPPRESSION FROM
THIS RIDGE HOWEVER IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...AND THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING IS SHOWING A MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION. THE PW VALUE OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS
APPROACHING 1.90"...WHICH IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES ARE IN THE 126-129K RANGE...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT AT NORMAL
LEVELS FOR JULY...AND CERTAINLY NOT HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE COLUMNS.
IF THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN OUR PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING OUR GRADIENT
LIGHT AND OUR FLOW DOMINATED BY NOCTURNAL/MORNING LAND BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZES.
REST OF TODAY...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SE GULF IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAND BREEZE
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD AND IS NOW GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY AND WILL BEGIN TO
SEE THE LAND BREEZE SHUT DOWN AND BE REPLACED BY A SEA-BREEZE OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BEGIN INITIATING SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES...GENERALLY AFTER 1PM. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
COVERAGE WITH 30-40% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 50% WILL BE FOUND DOWNS TOWARD PUNTA GORDA/FT
MYERS...WHERE THE MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAWN...EXPECTING THE DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO BE
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET UP DECENT COVERAGE OF
NOCTURNAL/MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN AT THE BEACHES...AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
WE WILL REPEAT THE CYCLE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY WITH EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE LANDMASS. ENJOY THE REST OF
YOUR MONDAY!
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST...EXCEPT
SHIFTING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN WILL DRIFT NORTH SOME FROM
MID WEEK ON. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
SEAS AND AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 93 77 91 77 / 30 30 50 30
FMY 92 75 92 75 / 50 30 60 30
GIF 95 74 93 75 / 30 30 50 30
SRQ 91 75 90 75 / 40 30 50 30
BKV 94 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 30
SPG 92 80 90 79 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED STORMS BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE...
TODAY...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EVIDENT ON MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS.
A VERY LIGHT WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WAS AFFECTING ONLY THE FAR
NORTH. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 1000-850 MB
RIDGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH DIFFERENCE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM TAMPA (1.87) VERSUS CANAVERAL (1.47). THIS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHICH LED TO DELAYED AND
SUBDUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AT CANAVERAL...MINUS 7 AT 500 MB...WHILE TAMPA WAS NEARLY 3 DEGREES
COOLER...MINUS 9.
GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS HIGHER VALUES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
SO THE DRY RIBBON THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
DAYS IS APPARENTLY SHRINKING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE SINCE THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH TO OUR NORTH THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. STILL...WATER VAPOR SHOWS
AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ADVECTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
THINK THAT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE DEEP CONVECTION
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH PORTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE WHICH HAD NOTHING YESTERDAY. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
SEEN ON THE CANAVERAL SOUNDING AND/OR 700 MB TEMPS AT 8 TO 9 DEGREES
CELSIUS SHOULD PRECLUDE EARLY DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING 20 PERCENT INLAND AND 30 PERCENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR LOOKS GOOD.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING IN THE OVERALL DRIER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH HAIL NEAR ONE INCH AND WET
MICROBURSTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
CUMULUS FORM. DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO WARRANT VICINITY THUNDER MENTION...EXPECT MAYBE FOR KDAB.
WILL NEED TO ADD THIS TO SOME OF THE INTERIOR TERMINALS THOUGH AND
MAYBE EVEN A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AT A FEW. ANY OF THE INTERIOR STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WILL CONTINUE...EXCEPT FOR A NOCTURNAL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
600 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
SETS UP TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE
DAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TSTMS COULD FORCE TEMPERATURES
BELOW 80 PRIOR TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...SO A RECORD REPORT WILL NOT
BE ISSUED JUST YET.
THE SEA BREEZE IS MOVING STEADILY INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG IT. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AT JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERAGE LOOKS SPARSE AT BEST.
MORE ROBUST...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...PEE DEE AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA ALONG A PRONOUNCED
LEE-SIDE TROUGH. SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PACKAGES
SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME LOOSELY ORGANIZE AND
BRUSH THE FAR WESTERN AND MORE LIKELY THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS INTERSECT THE WESTWARD MOVING
SEA BREEZE. 09/21Z RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CAP HAS
JUST ABOUT ERODED SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IMPACTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ARE THE
HIGHEST. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH DCAPES
RUNNING OVER 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPES RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ASSUMING TSTMS DO NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM MID 70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM RECORDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON COUNTY COULD BE
CHALLENGED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD AS UPPER
TROUGHING INCREASES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
LIKELY STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE AN IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND PEE-DEE REGIONS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THIS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ORGANIZING INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PUSHING
SOUTHEAST CLOSE TO OR EVEN INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS EACH DAY GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT THESE
CHANCES WOULD GO HIGHER IF ANY UPSTREAM ORGANIZATION OCCURS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A DIMINISHING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVELS WARM AND A STRONGER CAP SETS UP. WE SHOW A
DECREASING POP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS TO IMPACT KCHS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION JUST YET. TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF KCHS/KSAV SO NO MENTION WILL BE
INCLUDED WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING N/NW OF THE WATERS...THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO A SURGE OF SW WINDS
15-20 KT TONIGHT. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED/UNCOMMON...THUS NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO AS HIGH
AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT SC WATERS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. THROUGH MID
WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL
OUT INLAND...LIKELY ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND
CREATING NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN CHS HARBOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR ANY HEADLINES THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO REMAIN SMALL OVERALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR JULY 9...
KCHS...80/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 10...
KCHS...81/1986
KCHL...82/1986 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
KSAV...84/1879
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...CORRECTION
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE UPDATE...NETWORK ISSUES HAVE BEEN SOLVED.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE
ISSUES RESOLVING CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA FOR TODAY. SEVERAL
HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR LATER. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
LARGELY WITH THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AT THIS
POINT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP UNTIL 12Z.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE KEY PLAYERS WILL BE A SFC FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOME GULF MOISTURE NOSING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR MS/LA. LATEST
NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BEING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER
BY 00Z TUESDAY. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATED THAT THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 18Z YESTERDAY... HOWEVER
THERE WAS LIKELY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS NOT PROGGED TO DIG MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT BY MIDWEEK AND ANY SHORTWAVES
TRACKING ALONG THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE WITH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. IT SEEMS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO START WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 18-21Z WHEN DAYTIME
HEATING TYPICALLY TRIGGERS CONVECTION SO TRENDED POPS UPWARD DURING
THE DAY FROM LOW CHANCE BEFORE 18Z IN THE NORTH TO HIGH END CHANCE
AFTERWARD AND SLIGHT STAYING SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SAUNTER
SOUTHWARD JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO NORTH GA BY TUESDAY SO FELT
LIKELY POPS WERE BETTER JUSTIFIED IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING THAN TODAY.
DECENT CAPE VALUES WITH WEAK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE MAIN STORM THREATS
OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ALLOW CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL PAST
SUNSET AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS PROGGED PW VALUES ARE UP
NEAR 1.80 INCHES... AND A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... HOWEVER HPC HAS
THE HIGHER QPF JUST PAST THE SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT WILL GREATLY DICTATE WHERE
THE GREATEST STORM INFLUENCE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS THIS WEEK
SO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE OR THE LACK THEREOF WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE AND
RAISED THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY HIGHS AS
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST WITH ANY
INFLUENCING CLOUD COVER OR OUTFLOW LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR THE LOW 90S IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST... WITH VALUES 2-4
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY GET. OVERALL
THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...FAVORING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH HIGHER POPS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.
41
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
LOOK TO STAY NEARLY WEST AT 10KTS OR LESS AND A FEW SITES
INCLUDING KATL COULD GUST UP TO NEAR 18KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5-7 KFT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SCT
TO BKN BY 21Z ACROSS MOST AREAS BEFORE GOING BACK TO SCT040 NEAR
03Z TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMCN WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21-03Z THEREFORE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUP FOR THESE SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE METRO ATL AREA TONIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
POSITION...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCES FOR ATL AREA WILL BE 20-00Z
TODAY. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY SCT
CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING COVER INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ON THE RISE TUESDAY...AND HAVE INDICATED PROB30 FOR
AFTER 17-18Z. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
VARY BETWEEN WSW AND W...AT 8-11KTS TODAY...3-5KTS OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN 7-10KTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME LOW END GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ON TIMING
OF TSRA.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 97 71 92 72 / 30 30 50 50
ATLANTA 92 72 90 73 / 30 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 83 67 / 50 40 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 92 69 90 70 / 40 40 60 60
COLUMBUS 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 93 72 89 72 / 40 40 60 60
MACON 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 93 70 91 72 / 50 40 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 92 69 90 70 / 30 30 50 40
VIDALIA 98 76 97 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1140 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...CORRECTION
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE UPDATE...NETWORK ISSUES HAVE BEEN SOLVED.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE
ISSUES RESOLVING CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA FOR TODAY. SEVERAL
HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR LATER. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
LARGELY WITH THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AT THIS
POINT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP UNTIL 12Z.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE KEY PLAYERS WILL BE A SFC FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOME GULF MOISTURE NOSING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR MS/LA. LATEST
NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BEING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER
BY 00Z TUESDAY. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATED THAT THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 18Z YESTERDAY... HOWEVER
THERE WAS LIKELY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS NOT PROGGED TO DIG MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT BY MIDWEEK AND ANY SHORTWAVES
TRACKING ALONG THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE WITH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. IT SEEMS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO START WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 18-21Z WHEN DAYTIME
HEATING TYPICALLY TRIGGERS CONVECTION SO TRENDED POPS UPWARD DURING
THE DAY FROM LOW CHANCE BEFORE 18Z IN THE NORTH TO HIGH END CHANCE
AFTERWARD AND SLIGHT STAYING SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SAUNTER
SOUTHWARD JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO NORTH GA BY TUESDAY SO FELT
LIKELY POPS WERE BETTER JUSTIFIED IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING THAN TODAY.
DECENT CAPE VALUES WITH WEAK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE MAIN STORM THREATS
OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ALLOW CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL PAST
SUNSET AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS PROGGED PW VALUES ARE UP
NEAR 1.80 INCHES... AND A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... HOWEVER HPC HAS
THE HIGHER QPF JUST PAST THE SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT WILL GREATLY DICTATE WHERE
THE GREATEST STORM INFLUENCE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS THIS WEEK
SO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE OR THE LACK THEREOF WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE AND
RAISED THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY HIGHS AS
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST WITH ANY
INFLUENCING CLOUD COVER OR OUTFLOW LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR THE LOW 90S IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST... WITH VALUES 2-4
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY GET. OVERALL
THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...FAVORING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH HIGHER POPS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.
41
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
LOOK TO STAY NEARLY WEST AT 10KTS OR LESS AND A FEW SITES
INCLUDING KATL COULD GUST UP TO NEAR 18KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5-7 KFT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SCT
TO BKN BY 21Z ACROSS MOST AREAS BEFORE GOING BACK TO SCT040 NEAR
03Z TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMCN WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21-03Z THEREFORE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUP FOR THESE SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 97 71 92 72 / 30 30 50 50
ATLANTA 92 72 90 73 / 30 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 83 67 / 50 40 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 92 69 90 70 / 40 40 60 60
COLUMBUS 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 93 72 89 72 / 40 40 60 60
MACON 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 93 70 91 72 / 50 40 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 92 69 90 70 / 30 30 50 40
VIDALIA 98 76 97 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE UPDATE...NETWORK ISSUES HAVE BEEN SOLVED.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE
ISSUES RESOLVING CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA FOR TODAY. SEVERAL
HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR LATER. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
LARGELY WITH THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AT THIS
POINT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. OVER THE LAST WEEK OR MORE HAS FINALLY DAMPENED
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
US THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONING ITSELF
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH AND WESTERN GEORGIA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL USHER AMPLE MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE...AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE STATE
FROM THE TN VALLEY...THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT
HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND AS WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SEEN RECENTLY IN
THIS LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WET CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ON AND OFF RAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RAIN ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN IN RECENT WEEKS. WITH BEST MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...EXPECTING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
MONDAY...WHILE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE PRESENT EAST AND SOUTH. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...WHICH WILL CARRY INTO THE LONG
TERM.
31
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/ISSUED 404 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WITH
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE THE SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE MORE
DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN THE GFS VS ECMWF THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY AND
THEN BUILDS IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HOLDS THE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY FEATURE...WAVERING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT KEEPING IT DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...
MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AS
WELL AS ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA...ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TREND TOWARD JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
ATWELL/17
AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY SHOULD STAY ACROSS N/NW GA AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES. CIGS
WITHIN CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE HIGH END MVFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING W WINDS AT 7-10KTS THROUGH TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
TO 14-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
INCREASE TO 6-8KTS MONDAY AM. PRECIP CHANCES GREATER ON
MONDAY...BUT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
LOCATION...HAVE ONLY INCLUDE PROB30 FOR TS FOR 20-00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT KATL.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 97 71 92 72 / 30 30 50 50
ATLANTA 92 72 90 73 / 30 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 83 67 / 50 40 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 92 69 90 70 / 40 40 60 60
COLUMBUS 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 93 72 89 72 / 40 40 60 60
MACON 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 93 70 91 72 / 50 40 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 92 69 90 70 / 30 30 50 40
VIDALIA 98 76 97 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
SETS UP TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A STEADY LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND MIXED LAYER IN THE
FIRST 1 KFT OVER THE REGION HAS MAINTAINED VERY WARM TEMPS AROUND 80
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATION OVERNIGHT. INLAND AREAS DIPPING TO THE
UPPER 70S BUT TEMPS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES E OF U.S. 17
NORTH OF SAVANNAH...AND THIS INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT.
WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POP S OF DUBLIN GEORGIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO A REGION WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO 925 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WAS ONGOING UNDER A POCKET OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SOMEWHERE S OF I-16 PRIOR TO DAWN
IN OUR WESTERN GEORGIA ZONES BUT COVERAGE SPOTTY AT BEST.
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY BUT SUBTLE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SIGNAL A CHANGE IS
IN THE OFFING. THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WE THINK SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY MIDDAY.
BY 6 PM...THERE LIKELY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ONGOING
OVER OUR REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
I-95 SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR IN SE GEORGIA AND THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS GOOD TO OUR
NW AND N WITH THE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS N CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY PUNY 0-3 KM CAPE
REGIONS AND A LINGERING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR OUR REGION. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS
IN MANY AREAS WITH PERSISTENCE TRENDING TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S PRODUCING HEAT INDICES 104-108 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL BE SURGING INLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...POSSIBLY NUDGING INDICES VERY CLOSE TO
110 DEGREES BRIEFLY...JUST INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS EVENING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP EYES ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE
MID LEVELS RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA. CAPPED BUOYANCY IN THE
ELEVATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
THE NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR THEMES BUT OF COURSE DIFFER ON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION/LOCATION. IF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTS...IT
COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN LOCALLY SEVERE WITH WET DAMAGING MICROBURSTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS WITH ANY CONVECTION BY DAWN
LIKELY ALONG OR OFF COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL
CONVERGENCE AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTIONS. ANOTHER WARM MORNING ON
TUE BUT READINGS SHOULD JUST A BIT LOWER THAN MON MORNING. A LIGHT
OVERNIGHT SW BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST FOR ALL BUT INLAND LOCATIONS
ALONG/S OF I-16.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN SC DURING THE DAY BUT
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE WILL BE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES VIA
COMPRESSION. WE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF WHERE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SW TO LOWER
90S FAR NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN
AREAS WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO FURTHER INCREASE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING
THE PERIOD BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND WE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE ROBUST SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. FOR THIS REASON WE
HAVE 40 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A DIMINISHING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVELS WARM AND A STRONGER CAP SETS UP. WE SHOW A
DECREASING POP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/10. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TSTMS AROUND
THE KCHS THIS EVENING AS HINTED BY THE NAM MODEL...OTHERWISE
CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IT SEEMS THAT EACH NOCTURNAL SURGE THE PAST 3 NIGHTS HAS GOTTEN
INCREMENTALLY STRONGER AND NOW THE FRONT TO OUR N IS A PLAYER IN
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT. WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
THE DECREASING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TREND THEN INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY. THE SURGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
OVERNIGHT MAY BE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THIS MORNING. CERTAINLY
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...A BIT
HIGHER NEAR BUOY 41004 DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES. OVERALL THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
OF OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 9...
KCHS... 80/1998
KCHL... 85/1998
KSAV... 80/1883
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
107 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT
17Z WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATED SMALL UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS SW KANSAS WHILE AREA OF
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE CWA.
SOUNDINGS AT LBF INDICATING A LOT OF DRYING HAS OCCURRED BELOW H7
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THINK CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT TEMPERATURES CROSS SOUTHERN CWA BUT WITH SITES SHOWING A FAIRLY
QUICK REBOUND WITH SLIGHT CLEARING...AM NOT THINKING HOLDING BACK
TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY IS IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...WITH UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH THINK ANY REMAINING PRECIP THREAT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE VERY SPOTTY...LIKELY FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CWA WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST AND DRIFTING SOUTH. FOR
NOW...THINK 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE IS IN ORDER BUT IF RADAR DOES
NOT BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT SOON...WILL KNOCK THINGS DOWN
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS HOLDING ON
FOR A WHILE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. WITH OBSERVED MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
TO THE NORTH AND SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...THINK
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW HAVE
CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT ENTIRE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL DRY
OUT. WITH WET GROUND...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER
COOL AFTERNOON TEMPS THINK FOG THREAT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
IN FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. DUE TO VERY SPOTTY
NATURE...DO NOT EXPECT A SIG IMPACT TO EITHER TAF SITE. OTHERWISE
AFTER SKIES CLEAR THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
BTWN 09 AND 15Z. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AREA FROM NORTH THINK
GLD HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER MCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
947 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REFLECT BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NORTH BEFORE CU BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AND TO FINE
TUNE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF SHOWERS PRETTY SPOTTY AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND HAVE BACKED OFF PROBABILITIES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON LIKELY STARTING TO THE NORTH OF
THIS MORNINGS PRECIPITATION AREA AND DRIFTING SOUTH WHILE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE PRETTY SPOTTY AND THINK 20-30 POPS WILL BEST REFLECT COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
BOTH TAF SITES WITH KMCK MAYBE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRAY
SHOWER TO MOVE ACROSS. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO KEEP VCSH IN THIS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH AROUND
15Z OR 16Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD
COVER AROUND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES. CHOSE
TO GO WITH MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME BUT
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
BOTH TAF SITES WITH KMCK MAYBE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRAY
SHOWER TO MOVE ACROSS. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO KEEP VCSH IN THIS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH AROUND
15Z OR 16Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD
COVER AROUND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES. CHOSE
TO GO WITH MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME BUT
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS TO THE KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS WILL BE MINOR AND BRIEF...POSSIBLY A DROP IN CEILING TO
MVFR AS A SHOWER PASSES. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END BY MID
DAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE WATCH 484 IN EFFECT NOW UNTIL 9PM. THIS INCLUDES NELSON
COUNTY IN THE LWX CWA. ANY EXPANSIONS OR CANCELLATIONS WILL DEPEND
ON THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
DENSE LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE LEFT MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN THAT WERE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS LAST WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STILL
ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THE AREA AND IS NOW DRIFTING OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE CWA. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO GATHER OVER
THESE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE MRNG SOUNDING FROM
KIAD SHOWED BASICALLY NO CAPPING INVERSION...THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
HAS LARGELY PREVENTED THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CNTRL APLCNS AND
TOWARD THE LOWER SHENANDOAH VLY...BUT THE GREATER TSTM RISK EXISTS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH - CENTERED ON THE VA/NC BORDER.
LOCAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR MODEL SHOW ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH...OVER ERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLC IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR LIFT -
SHOULD THIS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DISPERSE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE LOWEST TIER OF THE
CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 IN N CNTRL VA BUT THE
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE L-M60S AND ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DO THE SAME. THE METRO AREAS AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL
STILL ONLY BOTTOM-OUT IN THE 70S BUT THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD
SINCE THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY AND STILL MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
THE AREA WON`T QUITE DRY OUT UNTIL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OUT OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUE...NELY SFC
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE AREA - AT LEAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
THE MORE STABLE FLOW WILL PREVENT TSTM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
BAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MRNG AND
AFTN. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE L-M80S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING THE
SHENANDOAH VLY. TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PLAY A PART IN ANY INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AFTN HRS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODELS GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CAPPING
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
LOW 80S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. LOCATION OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES. E-NE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO COOL SURFACE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK FORCING A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO RETROGRADE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING TO SEASONAL NORMS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY A FEW 3-5KFT CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...W/ A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY INTO
THE LATE EVE HRS. A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH THE KCHO AREA...W/
LOWER CHANCES TOWARD THE DC/BALT METRO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. NELY SFC FLOW WILL BECOME ELY BY THIS TIME ON
TUE...OWING TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DOWN ACROSS THE VA/NC
BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BUT A
FAIRLY SCATTERED AND LOW CHANCE NATURE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED. E-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTN AFTER CHANNELING DOWN THE BAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVED SWD OVER THE WATERS EARLIER THIS
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NELY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME HRS
ON TUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE E-NE LESS THAN 10 KT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...GMS/BAJ
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KCS/CLS
AVIATION...GMS/KCS
MARINE...GMS/KCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DENSE LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE LEFT MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN THAT WERE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS LAST WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STILL
ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THE AREA AND IS NOW DRIFTING OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE CWA. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO GATHER OVER
THESE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE MRNG SOUNDING FROM
KIAD SHOWED BASICALLY NO CAPPING INVERSION...THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
HAS LARGELY PREVENTED THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CNTRL APLCNS AND
TOWARD THE LOWER SHENANDOAH VLY...BUT THE GREATER TSTM RISK EXISTS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH - CENTERED ON THE VA/NC BORDER.
LOCAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR MODEL SHOW ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH...OVER ERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLC IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR LIFT -
SHOULD THIS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DISPERSE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE LOWEST TIER OF THE
CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 IN N CNTRL VA BUT THE
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE L-M60S AND ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DO THE SAME. THE METRO AREAS AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL
STILL ONLY BOTTOM-OUT IN THE 70S BUT THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD
SINCE THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY AND STILL MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
THE AREA WON`T QUITE DRY OUT UNTIL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OUT OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUE...NELY SFC
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE AREA - AT LEAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
THE MORE STABLE FLOW WILL PREVENT TSTM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
BAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MRNG AND
AFTN. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE L-M80S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING THE
SHENANDOAH VLY. TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PLAY A PART IN ANY INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AFTN HRS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODELS GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CAPPING
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
LOW 80S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. LOCATION OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES. E-NE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO COOL SURFACE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK FORCING A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO RETROGRADE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING TO SEASONAL NORMS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY A FEW 3-5KFT CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...W/ A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY INTO
THE LATE EVE HRS. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE KCHO AREA...W/
LOWER CHANCES TOWARD THE DC/BALT METRO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. NELY SFC FLOW WILL BECOME ELY BY THIS TIME ON TUE...OWING TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DOWN ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BUT A FAIRLY SCATTERED AND
LOW CHANCE NATURE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED. E-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTN AFTER CHANNELING DOWN THE BAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVED SWD OVER THE WATERS EARLIER THIS
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NELY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME HRS
ON TUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE E-NE LESS THAN 10 KT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KCS/CJL
AVIATION...GMS/KCS
MARINE...GMS/KCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OUR INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED SPUR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THAT PUSHED FROM NEAR ISLE ROYALE TO LAKE
MI...IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CWA. THE RUC DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB AT
PIN POINTING THE STORM COVERAGE INITIALLY. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER /ALBEIT WEAKER/ SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TIMING AGAIN AROUND DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SCT TO ISO TSRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. COVERAGE WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. ML CAP
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-500J/KG. THE NAM IS MORE
FOCUSED WEST AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE GFS IS HINTING AT A S CENTRAL
AND ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A
CONCERN WITH AN TS THAT DEVELOP...DCAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND OR
ABOVE 1000J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN TODAY...AROUND 11-12KFT...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE TUES
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SHIFT E TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK
THOUGH...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPS SUPPRESSED TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
A FEW 90S TRYING TO PUSH INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LKS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LKS DURING THAT TIME. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE
NE...SHOULDN/T SEE ANY SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA FOR WED THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BUT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW/MID
LVL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WED/THURS. ON BOTH DAYS...BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W...WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE SFC HIGH.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN BOTH WED/THURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT IN SRN ONTARIO
TRIES TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD IT OFF.
FLOW BEGINS TO MERGE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMER H850
TEMPS TO THE SW TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE WEAK ENERGY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD SEE
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OVERALL...NO
APPRECIABLE SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
MONITORING A LINE OF TSRA STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL BARAGA CO THROUGH
ISHPEMING AND NEGAUNEE...HEADING SSE TOWARD SAW. EXPECT TSRA TO
SLIDE OVER OR JUST W OF SAW BY 19Z...WITH SHRA CONTINUING BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE. OTHER THAN SAW WITH INITIAL MVFR CEIGS POSSIBLE...VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SAW...AS WELL AS CMX AND IWD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10KTS...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA
THAT WILL BE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FCST YET FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OTHER THAN WITH ANY TS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS LS...HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 25KTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EDGE SE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST A COUPLE OF TIMES THIS MORNING...TO INCREASE
POPS AND TS PROBABILITIES...ASSOICATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS
PROPIGATED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
FROM FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLD TSRA BTWN CYPL/CYQT. AT THE SFC...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTED OVER THE CWA. IR LOOP SHOWED PATCHY MID
CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI AND SOME STRATUS FROM ONTONAGON TO IWD THAT HAD
MOVED IN OFF OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS (600-700 MB INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB) ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE CYPL SHRTWV
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
CNTRL UPPER MI THAT COULD SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8K FT AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TSRA DEVELOP.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS IN PRODUCING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...LEFT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
STARTING 12Z TUE...THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W CONUS EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN CANADA. ALSO...THERE WILL
BE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E CANADA AND E CONUS...INCLUDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE CWA UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THERE WILL BE THE USUAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
TO THE SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NW. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER JET FOCUSES WELL N OF THE CONUS. BY
THU...THE N PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND FAR NCENTRAL CONUS /INCLUDING OVER THE CWA/.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED SE OFF THE
CWA...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO E/CENTRAL CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN...BRINGING INCREASED SLY FLOW
AS A SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THE PRECIP ASPECT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY. NO ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH SUN...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
THROUGH THU INLAND IF ANY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
DAYS. ALSO...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO PUT SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THU THROUGH SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
MONITORING A LINE OF TSRA STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL BARAGA CO THROUGH
ISHPEMING AND NEGAUNEE...HEADING SSE TOWARD SAW. EXPECT TSRA TO
SLIDE OVER OR JUST W OF SAW BY 19Z...WITH SHRA CONTINUING BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE. OTHER THAN SAW WITH INITIAL MVFR CEIGS POSSIBLE...VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SAW...AS WELL AS CMX AND IWD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10KTS...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA
THAT WILL BE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FCST YET FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
124 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET WEATHER WEEK TO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE TOO EAST OF US-27. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
STILL LOOKING FOR SKIES TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH AND THE LOWER 80S NORTH. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FORM AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTERACTS WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
EDITING MORNING SOUNDINGS TO MID AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
YIELDS CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -5. SPC
DAY ONE GENERAL THUNDER AREA LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NSSL
AND SPC WRF/S AND THE LATEST HRRR ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORMS...BUT SOME HAIL...HALF INCH OR LESS AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN`T
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM.
THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NRN LAKES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE CLEARLY AND LAST
EVENING HAD A FEW LTG STRIKES WITH IT. MODELS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH WE ADDED A
TSRA MENTION. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
ANY PCPN WILL QUICKLY END.
FAIR WX EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE ACTIVE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY...LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. MODELS DO SHOW SOME VARIANCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. EVENTUALLY ALL MODELS LIFT IT THROUGH. THE MODELS
DO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING FRIDAY ALONG WITH CLIMBING
PWAT VALUES. WITH STILL A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AROUND FRI INTO
SAT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST. I WILL FEATURE A FEW STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT
AS A RESULT.
THE NEW HIGH RES EURO IS SHOWING QUITE THE WARMUP AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE KLAN
AND KJXN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 35
KT WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY END
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET WEATHER WEEK TO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE TOO EAST OF US-27. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
STILL LOOKING FOR SKIES TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH AND THE LOWER 80S NORTH. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FORM AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTERACTS WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
EDITING MORNING SOUNDINGS TO MID AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
YIELDS CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -5. SPC
DAY ONE GENERAL THUNDER AREA LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NSSL
AND SPC WRF/S AND THE LATEST HRRR ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORMS...BUT SOME HAIL...HALF INCH OR LESS AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN`T
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM.
THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NRN LAKES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE CLEARLY AND LAST
EVENING HAD A FEW LTG STRIKES WITH IT. MODELS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH WE ADDED A
TSRA MENTION. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
ANY PCPN WILL QUICKLY END.
FAIR WX EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE ACTIVE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY...LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. MODELS DO SHOW SOME VARIANCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. EVENTUALLY ALL MODELS LIFT IT THROUGH. THE MODELS
DO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING FRIDAY ALONG WITH CLIMBING
PWAT VALUES. WITH STILL A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AROUND FRI INTO
SAT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST. I WILL FEATURE A FEW STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT
AS A RESULT.
THE NEW HIGH RES EURO IS SHOWING QUITE THE WARMUP AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KLAN TO KJXN.
HOWEVER THERE IS A WARM LAYER SHOWN ALOFT UP AROUND 20K FT. THUS
IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL START TO FORM INLAND...BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT ADDING A THUNDER RISK AT THIS POINT.
WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
A KGRR TO KLAN LINE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
FROM FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLD TSRA BTWN CYPL/CYQT. AT THE SFC...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTED OVER THE CWA. IR LOOP SHOWED PATCHY MID
CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI AND SOME STRATUS FROM ONTONAGON TO IWD THAT HAD
MOVED IN OFF OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS (600-700 MB INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB) ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE CYPL SHRTWV
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
CNTRL UPPER MI THAT COULD SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8K FT AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TSRA DEVELOP.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS IN PRODUCING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...LEFT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
STARTING 12Z TUE...THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W CONUS EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN CANADA. ALSO...THERE WILL
BE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E CANADA AND E CONUS...INCLUDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE CWA UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THERE WILL BE THE USUAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
TO THE SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NW. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER JET FOCUSES WELL N OF THE CONUS. BY
THU...THE N PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND FAR NCENTRAL CONUS /INCLUDING OVER THE CWA/.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED SE OFF THE
CWA...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO E/CENTRAL CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN...BRINGING INCREASED SLY FLOW
AS A SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THE PRECIP ASPECT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY. NO ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH SUN...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
THROUGH THU INLAND IF ANY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
DAYS. ALSO...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO PUT SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THU THROUGH SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
AN AREA OF ST/FG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT HAD MOVED INTO IWD SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR SAWYER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
FROM FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLD TSRA BTWN CYPL/CYQT. AT THE SFC...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTED OVER THE CWA. IR LOOP SHOWED PATCHY MID
CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI AND SOME STRATUS FROM ONTONAGON TO IWD THAT HAD
MOVED IN OFF OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS (600-700 MB INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB) ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE CYPL SHRTWV
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
CNTRL UPPER MI THAT COULD SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8K FT AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TSRA DEVELOP.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS IN PRODUCING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...LEFT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
STARTING 12Z TUE...THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W CONUS EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN CANADA. ALSO...THERE WILL
BE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E CANADA AND E CONUS...INCLUDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE CWA UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THERE WILL BE THE USUAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
TO THE SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NW. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER JET FOCUSES WELL N OF THE CONUS. BY
THU...THE N PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND FAR NCENTRAL CONUS /INCLUDING OVER THE CWA/.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED SE OFF THE
CWA...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO E/CENTRAL CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN...BRINGING INCREASED SLY FLOW
AS A SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THE PRECIP ASPECT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY. NO ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH SUN...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
THROUGH THU INLAND IF ANY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
DAYS. ALSO...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO PUT SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THU THROUGH SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR IWD OVERNIGHT. SCT- BKN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AT CMX. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR SAWYER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
339 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING
RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE
MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND HRRR OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PERHAPS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AM NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING...BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK DIABATIC HEATING...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST 00Z-03Z AS A RESULT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR WEST. WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOSE
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TUESDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG PRODUCTION PRIMARILY THROUGH LOW
LYING AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT 15
HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT
25-30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PLACING US WITHIN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE CWA TO BE VULNERABLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF ENERGY
THAT MAY ROUND THE RIDGE AND GIVE US PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. FRANKLY...TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN OVERALL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TOWARD A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SURE ENOUGH...MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS PROBABLE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT NECESSARILY MAKE THE TEMPERATURE A WHOLE
LOT COOLER FOR OUR WEATHER AS A TROUGH WOULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP IN
THE WEST AND A RESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
THIS WOULD MEAN A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE GENERALLY
EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS THIS MAY OPEN UP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND/OR SOUTH PACIFIC.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STEADILY CLIMB AS WELL.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
10-13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
NEAR 60...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
DIABATIC HEATING QUICKLY MIXES OUT THE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...KUEX CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS A WEAKENING
MCV PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. RAISED POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS OF MIDDAY...WITH A LOW LEVEL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AS OF MIDDAY REMAINED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM KK82 TO KCNK...WITH NEAR-70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR EAST OF HIGHWAY
281...AND LOW TO MID 80S FARTHER NORTHWEST. WENT AHEAD AND
DECREASED FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST...GIVEN THE THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AM HAVING TROUBLE BELIEVING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE MID 70S. ALSO WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTH.
WITH KODX ALREADY AT 83 AS OF MIDDAY...WENT AHEAD WITH A FORECAST
HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR KODX...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO
THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
10-13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
NEAR 60...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
DIABATIC HEATING QUICKLY MIXES OUT THE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BEING
MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT VELOCITY OF THE WEAKENING MCV OVER OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUGGESTS RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY PRESENT A DECENT LOW LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS MAKING FOR
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS FORECAST MAY BE A TAD TOO COOL
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS TOO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
UPDATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE REVIEW OF A FEW
MORE SETS OF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS OF CLOUD
TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1259 PM UPDATE/AVIATION/1028 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1217 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
10-13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
NEAR 60...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
DIABATIC HEATING QUICKLY MIXES OUT THE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BEING
MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT VELOCITY OF THE WEAKENING MCV OVER OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUGGESTS RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY PRESENT A DECENT LOW LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS MAKING FOR
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS FORECAST MAY BE A TAD TOO COOL
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS TOO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
UPDATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE REVIEW OF A FEW
MORE SETS OF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS OF CLOUD
TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1028 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BEING
MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT VELOCITY OF THE WEAKENING MCV OVER OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUGGESTS RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY PRESENT A DECENT LOW LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS MAKING FOR
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS FORECAST MAY BE A TAD TOO COOL
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS TOO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
UPDATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE REVIEW OF A FEW
MORE SETS OF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS OF CLOUD
TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE TERMINAL AREA ON THE VERY
NORTHERN FRINGE OF WHAT LINGERING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THERE ARE...NOT
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE TAF. REST OF THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS
DRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH
ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1028 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT...ROSSI
LONG/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE TERMINAL AREA ON THE VERY
NORTHERN FRINGE OF WHAT LINGERING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THERE ARE...NOT
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE TAF. REST OF THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS
DRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH
ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT...ROSSI
LONG/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO SCATTER AROUND MID MORNING ON MONDAY WHILE
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN FROM A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION...BUT MAY
BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOCAL IFR/MVFR MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. ELSEWHERE VFR IS
EXPECTED IN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS MONDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ALOFT
CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ACROSS SERN
COLO/WRN KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR. SATELITTE
SHOWS THE BEST SFC FOCUS DOWN THAT WAY WITH THE CU FIELD STREAMING WESTWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO SWRN NEB WHICH SHOULD GREATLY
STABILIZE THE ATM. STILL...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE FCST
HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA INDICATED SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THE 3KM AGL LEVEL FROM THE WSR-88D RADAR WIND PROFILES
SHOWED A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL END OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...THE SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE WEST...UPPER FLOW OVER
NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORES NORTHERLY. THEN WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA.
THE FIRST OF THE WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP AROUND THIS EVENINGS MCV WHICH IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CLAY COUNTY. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...BUT INCLUDED ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER JUST IN CASE AS
IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO SCATTER AROUND MID MORNING ON MONDAY WHILE
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN FROM A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION...BUT MAY
BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EARLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEFORE DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WAS SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGAN TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT RANGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESCEND ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME
INCREASED LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A MORE DEVELOPED REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE FIRST FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
ALTHOUGH THE 4 KM WRF IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD WITH THE QPF ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF
GENERATED ACROSS NEBRASKA SLIDING SOUTH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...EVEN
WITH GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LIKELY ALTHOUGH CHANCES POPS ARE MENTIONED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD...AS DOES
THE SURFACE HIGH. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE NAM LAGS A BIT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY USING BOIVERIFY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT EVEN BE LOWER. EVEN
STILL...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE 12Z GFS PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLATED
LOW QPF SPOTS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. OVERALL...OUR
AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...TO 89 TO 94
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT AND HAS A LITTLE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THUS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM HONESTLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
ADDING THESE SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING RAIN IS SO LOW AND AM WORRIED ABOUT GIVING FALSE HOPE TO AREA
FARMERS. IF IT DOES RAIN IT SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOP OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE
END...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECWMF IS DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE DAY
SUNDAY WHEN IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS
AGAIN SEEMS TO GIVE TOO MUCH FALSE HOPE OF RAIN WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF LOW END QPF. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TOO
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN NE PA. STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN VERY QUICKLY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POOLING
DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 60S. MODELS NOT HANDLING WELL. EXTENDING THE
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. MOVEMENT IS SLOWLY TO THE ESE BUT
SOME HEAVY RAIN STILL THERE. SHOULD BE A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL AND THE SHORT WAVE PASSES TO
THE SE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN CENTRAL NY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
7 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES HANGING ON ALONG A TROF IN NORTHEAST PA
AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 50S IN NEW YORK ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLY ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATNIG THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HWOEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR WV PASSING THRU NE PA WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS ARND AVP FOR
THE NEXT CPL HRS...OTRW LTL IN THE WAY OF WX THIS PD. VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY FOR
XTNSV FOG FORMATION AT ELM. LGT WINDS TNGT WILL BECOME NLY AND WED
WITH MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
811 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES HANGING ON ALONG A TROF IN NORTHEAST PA
AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 50S IN NEW YORK ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLY ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATNIG THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HWOEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR WV PASSING THRU NE PA WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS ARND AVP FOR
THE NEXT CPL HRS...OTRW LTL IN THE WAY OF WX THIS PD. VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY FOR
XTNSV FOG FORMATION AT ELM. LGT WINDS TNGT WILL BECOME NLY AND WED
WITH MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND AS A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLT ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATNIG THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HWOEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR WV PASSING THRU NE PA WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS ARND AVP FOR
THE NEXT CPL HRS...OTRW LTL IN THE WAY OF WX THIS PD. VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY FOR
XTNSV FOG FORMATION AT ELM. LGT WINDS TNGT WILL BECOME NLY AND WED
WITH MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1018 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK... BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 PM TUESDAY...
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED 850-700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED
WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A 130KT JET CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WILL
INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.8 NW PIEDMONT
TO 2.1 INCHES SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN) TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 22Z RUN OF
THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z SPC WRF SUGGEST SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND LINGER INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS AS DEEP SW-W FLOW WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS BELIEVE SUCH OCCURRENCES
WILL BE LIMITED IN NUMBER.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN A REGION OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
STALLED SURFACE TROUGH/DECAYING DIFFUSE FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NC DURING THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIR MASS AS NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT RANGE
NEAR 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
AREA TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A SHEAR AXIS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS FAR WESTERN NC AND NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER DURING THE
PERIOD. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
ONGOING FORECAST WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIMITED BUT THE 12Z NAM NOTED SOMEWHAT
STRONGER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 15-25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL AND RANGE
FROM 83-88 WHILE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY MORNING... WITH
A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ATLANTIC HIGH
SLOWLY EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND FOR FRIDAY AND PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST JUST INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE WAKE OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE PIEDMONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK.
LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY MOSTLY ABSENT OTHER THAN
DAYTIME HEATING EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN
HIGH AT AROUND TWO INCHES. HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST (70 PERCENT) WHERE
SOUTHEAST FLOW POTENTIALLY FRICTIONALLY CONVERGENT... OR WITH A
SEABREEZE... DROPPING TO FIFTY PERCENT NORTH. CONVECTION WILL WANE
IN THE LATE EVENING... WITH SOME SHOWERS PERHAPS SURVIVING TO DAWN.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ABOVE SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY... SO A SIMILAR
FORECAST.
THE AIR MASS DRYS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD SOUTH AND
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE. AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
30 PERCENT THOUGH SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
FURTHER EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES FALL TO ONE IN SEVEN.
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR THE
EARLY WORK WEEK... AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH...
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO THIRTY PERCENT NORTH AND SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH.
A WARMING TREND IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... 85 TO 90 SATURDAY... AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 838 PM TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACT WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC. DUE TO THE MOIST AIR IN PLACE...LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
PROBABLE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 10 AM. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO THE
HIGH END OF MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN
VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL AS MVFR CEILINGS.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
OCCURRENCE OF PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN STALL AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM...
LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTION TODAY.
CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME MEAGER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE BY MANY CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. THESE
MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT ADVECTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON. NO CONSENSUS IN THE
TRADITIONAL MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION MAXIMA APPEARING WHEREVER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED... BUT WITH NO CONSENSUS ON LOCATION.
THE NAM LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK OVERDONE... WITH ITS PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TOO INTENSE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ROUGHLY EAST WEST WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
HIGHWAY 64 AT THIS TIME. ROUGH CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MESONAM AND RAP
MODELS IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE FOOTHILLS ADVANCING INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MID AFTERNOON. THE RAP INITIATES CONVECTION NEAR
AND SOUTH OF ITS CONVERGENCE ZONE... WHICH IT MEANDERS SOUTH IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THE BEST CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST
AS THE MODEL MOVES A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE GFS DROPS THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND LEAVES IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 74
AT SUNSET. PRESSURE TENDENCIES MAY OFFER A CLUE AS TO THE PROPER
SOLUTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM VIRGINIA
BRINGING CONVECTION TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION... WILL FAVOR CURRENT BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TIME... AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BE THE ORIGIN FOR CONVECTION... WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST LEAST
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET WHEN PART OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA.
THE RAP MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS TODAY AND
PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SURFACE BASED CAPE AND INSTABILITY THAN
MOST MODELS. FREEZING LEVELS OF 15 TO 16 THOUSAND FEET WITH A DRY
INVERTED VEE BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO
UPPER 90S.
FOR TONIGHT FORECASTING MINOR SHIFT SOUTH IN THE BOUNDARY TO FAVOR
THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NIGHT CONVECTION BEFORE STORMS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES 73 TO 78.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF AND/OR ATLANTIC AND LEAD TO PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THE FAVORED DIURNAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH REGARDS
TO ANY SEVERE THREAT...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...SHEAR AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALL FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...THEREFORE AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AS CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEAR
NON-EXISTENT AND NO HELP IN MOVING THE FRONT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
DAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...A HIGH
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGINS TO TRY AND BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS COULD HELP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGIN TO DRY
OUT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE UPPER 80S BY
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST OF HIGHWAYS 64 AND ONE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND COVERAGE TO INCREASE
AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE
EVENING AND BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES.
SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANYTIME
AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MORE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...RTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BEFORE STALLING
NEARBY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A FEW LATE DAY OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...HEAT ADVISORY AREA-WIDE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACH 105-109 THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AN EAST TO WEST FRONT
TO THE NORTH WILL DIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING PRIME HEATING. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH AND THE CAP ALOFT WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR REGION. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA 4P-MIDNIGHT.
COOLING ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY WILL STRENGTHEN LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL NEAR 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED WET DOWN
BURSTS LATER TODAY...LOCAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE MS RIVER VLY UP INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SW TO NE...DEEP SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS SHOWN BY BOTH DEEP SATURATION IN FORECAST PROFILES...PWATS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES...AND STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING. AT THE
SAME TIME...A 300MB JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING THE AREA UNDERNEATH ITS FAVORABLE RIGHT DIFFLUENT
REGION. THIS WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...SUCH THAT SURFACE CONVERGENCE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMA ARE COLLOCATED WHICH...IN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS ALSO ECHOED
IN TIME HEIGHTS WHICH SHOW PERIODS OF VERY STRONG UVVS THANKS TO
DEEP COLUMN INSTABILITY.
SO WITH ALL THESE PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE (AND NOW WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT)...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN SEEMS
ALMOST A CERTAINTY ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...PLACING THE HIGHEST POP AND QPF IS STILL VERY
DIFFICULT FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...DEEP SW FLOW WILL ACT TO IMPEDE
SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. SECOND...GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BASICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALSO
HELP TO RETARD SOUTHERN LATITUDINAL GAIN OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
KEEP SOME DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN. NOTE AS WELL
THAT RIDGES TEND TO BE BROKEN DOWN TOO EASILY/QUICKLY BY
GUIDANCE...SO THE FACT THAT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AROUND 588DM MEANS THE RIDGE MAY BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THIS...HENCE
CREATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
STILL...SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. MOS P12 NUMBERS ECHO THIS...OVER 60 NEAR LBT AND LESS THAN 40
AT CRE. HPC QPF SHOWS ABOUT 1/2 INCH NEAR GEORGETOWN...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES NEAR LUMBERTON DURING THESE TWO DAYS. FEEL THIS IS A PRUDENT
ESTIMATE ATTM...ALTHOUGH WILL CUT DOWN ON THESE NUMBERS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...WITH HIGHEST POP OCCURRING DURING THE AFTN
THANKS TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE MODIFIED CONSIDERABLY BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...AND WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK-AND-A-HALF. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 90 TUESDAY...WITH ONLY MID/UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MINS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S EACH
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND WAVERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE WKND.
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO THE MS VLY WILL
SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
BUILD WEST AND TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HAPPENS AT THE
SAME TIME A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY WASHES OUT/LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
BY FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE CLOUDY AND
COOL...TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE FOR
MINS...WITH SCATTERED...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
BOTH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...SO WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHC POP THU WITH CHC FRI. THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NW ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY.
BY THE WKND...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FORCING THE FRONT TO WASH OUT TO THE NORTH. MORE TYPICAL MID-JULY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY THEN WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND CLIMO. AS
RETURN FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CLIMO POP IS WARRANTED
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AS A COLD FRONT SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SO COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO 00 UTC AND LATER. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06 UTC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...COMBINED EFFECTS OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH...PIEDMONT TROF...AND RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BRING SW 15 KT ALL WATERS...AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OCCASIONALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR AND STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE OUTER WATERS OFF
LITTLE RIVER INLET. A FEW STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ON THE 0-20NM WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...THE PERSISTENT 1-2FT/8SEC SE GROUND SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE
SOMEWHAT TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM. HOWEVER...THE PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS OF 15-20 KTS TUESDAY...DECREASING
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY...MAKING THE SPECTRUM WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
EXPECT SEAS OF 3-4 FT TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE WAVERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WITH BERMUDA HIGH STILL
SITTING OFFSHORE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE ONGOING ON
THURSDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO WASH OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THEN
SOUTHEAST...STILL AROUND 10 KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF
DIFFERENT WIND WAVES AND SWELL DEVELOPING LATE WEEK...BUT WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST...EXPECT PRIMARILY A COMBINATION OF A
CONTINUED 2FT SE GROUND SWELL AND A 2 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE...WHICH
WILL KEEPS SEAS AT 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1024 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BEFORE STALLING
NEARBY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A FEW LATE DAY OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...HEAT ADVISORY AREA-WIDE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACH 105-109 THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AN EAST TO WEST FRONT
TO THE NORTH WILL DIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING PRIME HEATING. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH AND THE CAP ALOFT WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR REGION. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA 4P-MIDNIGHT.
COOLING ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY WILL STRENGTHEN LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL NEAR 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED WET DOWN
BURSTS LATER TODAY...LOCAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE MS RIVER VLY UP INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SW TO NE...DEEP SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS SHOWN BY BOTH DEEP SATURATION IN FORECAST PROFILES...PWATS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES...AND STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING. AT THE
SAME TIME...A 300MB JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING THE AREA UNDERNEATH ITS FAVORABLE RIGHT DIFFLUENT
REGION. THIS WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...SUCH THAT SURFACE CONVERGENCE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMA ARE COLLOCATED WHICH...IN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS ALSO ECHOED
IN TIME HEIGHTS WHICH SHOW PERIODS OF VERY STRONG UVVS THANKS TO
DEEP COLUMN INSTABILITY.
SO WITH ALL THESE PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE (AND NOW WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT)...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN SEEMS
ALMOST A CERTAINTY ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...PLACING THE HIGHEST POP AND QPF IS STILL VERY
DIFFICULT FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...DEEP SW FLOW WILL ACT TO IMPEDE
SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. SECOND...GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BASICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALSO
HELP TO RETARD SOUTHERN LATITUDINAL GAIN OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
KEEP SOME DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN. NOTE AS WELL
THAT RIDGES TEND TO BE BROKEN DOWN TOO EASILY/QUICKLY BY
GUIDANCE...SO THE FACT THAT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AROUND 588DM MEANS THE RIDGE MAY BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THIS...HENCE
CREATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
STILL...SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. MOS P12 NUMBERS ECHO THIS...OVER 60 NEAR LBT AND LESS THAN 40
AT CRE. HPC QPF SHOWS ABOUT 1/2 INCH NEAR GEORGETOWN...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES NEAR LUMBERTON DURING THESE TWO DAYS. FEEL THIS IS A PRUDENT
ESTIMATE ATTM...ALTHOUGH WILL CUT DOWN ON THESE NUMBERS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...WITH HIGHEST POP OCCURRING DURING THE AFTN
THANKS TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE MODIFIED CONSIDERABLY BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...AND WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK-AND-A-HALF. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 90 TUESDAY...WITH ONLY MID/UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MINS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S EACH
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND WAVERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE WKND.
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO THE MS VLY WILL
SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
BUILD WEST AND TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HAPPENS AT THE
SAME TIME A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY WASHES OUT/LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
BY FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE CLOUDY AND
COOL...TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE FOR
MINS...WITH SCATTERED...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
BOTH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...SO WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHC POP THU WITH CHC FRI. THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NW ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY.
BY THE WKND...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FORCING THE FRONT TO WASH OUT TO THE NORTH. MORE TYPICAL MID-JULY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY THEN WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND CLIMO. AS
RETURN FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CLIMO POP IS WARRANTED
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SO COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 23 AND 05 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
06 UTC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...COMBINED EFFECTS OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH...PIEDMONT TROF...AND RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BRING SW 15 KT ALL WATERS...AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OCCASIONALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR AND STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE OUTER WATERS OFF
LITTLE RIVER INLET. A FEW STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ON THE 0-20NM WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...THE PERSISTENT 1-2FT/8SEC SE GROUND SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE
SOMEWHAT TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM. HOWEVER...THE PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS OF 15-20 KTS TUESDAY...DECREASING
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY...MAKING THE SPECTRUM WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
EXPECT SEAS OF 3-4 FT TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE WAVERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WITH BERMUDA HIGH STILL
SITTING OFFSHORE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE ONGOING ON
THURSDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO WASH OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THEN
SOUTHEAST...STILL AROUND 10 KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF
DIFFERENT WIND WAVES AND SWELL DEVELOPING LATE WEEK...BUT WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST...EXPECT PRIMARILY A COMBINATION OF A
CONTINUED 2FT SE GROUND SWELL AND A 2 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE...WHICH
WILL KEEPS SEAS AT 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1016 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN STALL AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM...
LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTION TODAY.
CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME MEAGER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE BY MANY CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. THESE
MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT ADVECTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON. NO CONSENSUS IN THE
TRADITIONAL MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION MAXIMA APPEARING WHEREVER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED... BUT WITH NO CONSENSUS ON LOCATION.
THE NAM LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK OVERDONE... WITH ITS PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TOO INTENSE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ROUGHLY EAST WEST WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
HIGHWAY 64 AT THIS TIME. ROUGH CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MESONAM AND RAP
MODELS IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE FOOTHILLS ADVANCING INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MID AFTERNOON. THE RAP INITIATES CONVECTION NEAR
AND SOUTH OF ITS CONVERGENCE ZONE... WHICH IT MEANDERS SOUTH IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THE BEST CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST
AS THE MODEL MOVES A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE GFS DROPS THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND LEAVES IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 74
AT SUNSET. PRESSURE TENDENCIES MAY OFFER A CLUE AS TO THE PROPER
SOLUTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM VIRGINIA
BRINGING CONVECTION TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION... WILL FAVOR CURRENT BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TIME... AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BE THE ORIGIN FOR CONVECTION... WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST LEAST
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET WHEN PART OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA.
THE RAP MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS TODAY AND
PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SURFACE BASED CAPE AND INSTABILITY THAN
MOST MODELS. FREEZING LEVELS OF 15 TO 16 THOUSAND FEET WITH A DRY
INVERTED VEE BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO
UPPER 90S.
FOR TONIGHT FORECASTING MINOR SHIFT SOUTH IN THE BOUNDARY TO FAVOR
THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NIGHT CONVECTION BEFORE STORMS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES 73 TO 78.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF AND/OR ATLANTIC AND LEAD TO PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THE FAVORED DIURNAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH REGARDS
TO ANY SEVERE THREAT...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...SHEAR AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALL FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...THEREFORE AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AS CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEAR
NON-EXISTENT AND NO HELP IN MOVING THE FRONT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
DAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...A HIGH
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGINS TO TRY AND BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS COULD HELP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGIN TO DRY
OUT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE UPPER 80S BY
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST SITES.
CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET WITH VSBYS MOSTLY ABOVE 6
MILES THROUGH THE MORNING. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... FIRST NEAR INT/GSO/RDU/RWI AFTER 18Z... THEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO FAY AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR NEAR TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT... EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED BELOW 2 THOUSAND FEET
FROM LATE EVENING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING... MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHY CLOUDS
BASED BELOW 2 THOUSAND FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING TUESDAY. THEN... THERE WILL BE A NEAR DAILY CHANCE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS... PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EACH LATE-NIGHT AND
MORNING... AND IN/NEAR ANY STORMS... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING THE EFFECT OF SOME INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE MI. FOR THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO
MENTION SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY LUCAS...WOOD AND
OTTAWA COUNTIES WITH CHC POPS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP AFTER THAT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE LAKE. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN EVEN NW OH ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANY OTHER SCT CU WILL ALSO DIMINISH
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIRMASS IN PLACE LEANED MOSTLY
TOWARD LAST NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS WITH SOME CONSIDERATION TO THE MET
AND MAV NUMBERS. BOTH SHOW VERY SIMILAR READINGS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR...NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY SO LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE. IN FACT PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS
LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND MAINLY FOCUSED ON LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS.
ECMWF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM INVERTED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS
KEEPING DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING JUST SLGT CHC POPS INTO THE
FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE WILL FOCUS ON INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN. MODELS SHOW THE BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE NRN MS/WRM TN AREA. MODELS
SHOW AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO OHIO
WHILE THE RH PROGS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT
AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FAVORED LOCATION
BEING THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INVERTED TROF. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
WEST WITH THE TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE...EASILY AFFECTING ALL OF OHIO
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS OHIO BISECTED NW/SE. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT A
LOW CHANCE POP MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL TRIM
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST AS DEEP MOISTURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MONDAY MODELS SHOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER
TROF DROPPING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. GFS MOS TEMPS
TRENDING LOWER THAN HPC`S MID AND UPPER 80. WENT WITH THE WARMER
HPC NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INSTABILITY BEST ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI VALUES
NEARING ZERO WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS STABLE WITH VALUES
ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HRRR SUGGESTS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST SO WILL HAVE VCSH IN FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTOL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW MOVED
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THIS WILL SET UP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE LAKE. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. CENTER OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE
LATE WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CREATES LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHARP CUT OFF FROM CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
THE CLEAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STABLE DRY AIR IN SE OH AND NRN WV.
PREVIOUSLY CAPPED CU FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF OUR SRN WV AND VA
MNTS STARTING TO BUILD AND SHOW UP AS CONVECTIVE RADAR ECHOES.
THIS TREND ON RADAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND FILL WESTWARD THROUGH
ERN KY.
LATEST RAP DATA SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY WELL OFF TO OUR SE INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VA AND NC. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF OF OUR SOILS...THUS SPC DROPPING THE
SLIGHT RISK OUT OF CWA. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND A W TO E
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CONCERN EXISTS OVER
POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS. LATEST 1HR AND 3HR FFG FROM RFC SHOWING
1.5IN AND 2.0IN VALUES RESPECTIVELY...SO PROLONGED TRAINING OR
SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT SHOWERS WOULD BE THE THREAT...BUT WILL
MENTION THIS IN RWS. NOT SEEING THE THREAT OF ANY FLOOD
HEADLINE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN HWO ATTM.
CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH WITH GENERAL CLEARING NORTH
IN THE DRIER AIR. A CHALLENGING VSBY FORECAST TODAY AS POCKETS OF
MOISTURE LINGER AROUND CWA FROM PREVIOUS DAYS PRECIPITATION. EVEN
WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH...THE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK 5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A DIMINISHED BERMUDA HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THURSDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
MARKS THE BOUNDARY FOR HOT MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS HINT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WRIGGLE BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AT
TIMES THROUGH MID WEEK. DIFFICULT TO LATCH ON SPECIFIC MODEL
DETAILS...AS FLOW RATHER WEAK MODEL NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY DAYTIME POPS WITH DIMINISHING
VALUES FOR NIGHT TIME HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT A DIURNAL CYCLE INVOF OF FRONT.
FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE SPREAD NOT REAL SIGNIFICANT IN THIS PLEASANT
SUMMERTIME AIRMASS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTION. EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES THE
RE-EMERGENCE OF 5H BERMUDA HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK FRONT TO DRIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OF WEST VIRGINIA. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MINOR UPSWING
IN DAYTIME HIGHS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FRONT MAKES A SLOW
APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND THAT INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. HI-RES ECMWF GENERALLY THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...CARRYING THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY FOR
INCREASED POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING IT SLOW CREEP SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF IT CURRENTLY. BULK OF ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KEKN TO KCRW.
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
CLEARING IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHERN WV...EASTERN KY...AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
OHIO RIVER AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER HOLDING IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST MAY HOLD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIDESPREAD FOG MAY NOT FORM AS FORECAST
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CREATES LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHARP CUT OFF FROM CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
THE CLEAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STABLE DRY AIR IN SE OH AND NRN WV.
PREVIOUSLY CAPPED CU FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF OUR SRN WV AND VA
MNTS STARTING TO BUILD AND SHOW UP AS CONVECTIVE RADAR ECHOES.
THIS TREND ON RADAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND FILL WESTWARD THROUGH
ERN KY.
LATEST RAP DATA SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY WELL OFF TO OUR SE INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VA AND NC. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF OF OUR SOILS...THUS SPC DROPPING THE
SLIGHT RISK OUT OF CWA. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND A W TO E
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CONCERN EXISTS OVER
POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS. LATEST 1HR AND 3HR FFG FROM RFC SHOWING
1.5IN AND 2.0IN VALUES RESPECTIVELY...SO PROLONGED TRAINING OR
SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT SHOWERS WOULD BE THE THREAT...BUT WILL
MENTION THIS IN RWS. NOT SEEING THE THREAT OF ANY FLOOD
HEADLINE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN HWO ATTM.
CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH WITH GENERAL CLEARING NORTH
IN THE DRIER AIR. A CHALLENGING VSBY FORECAST TODAY AS POCKETS OF
MOISTURE LINGER AROUND CWA FROM PREVIOUS DAYS PRECIPITATION. EVEN
WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH...THE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SITS N OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST TO THE S. NEARLY SW-NE ORIENTATION OF FRONT WARRANTS
POPS SE EDGE OF FCST AREA...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE IS
HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL
HEATING. RATCHET BACK THUNDERSTORMS EVEN FURTHER AT NT TO THE POINT
WHERE THEY ARE OUT OF THE FCST TUE NT AND WED NT.
MODELS INDICATE OVERALL DRIER TREND TUE-WED WITH FRONT S OF NEARLY
ALL IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA MOST OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BIGGER
CHANGE IN THE FCST COMES LATER WED THROUGH THU NT...WHEN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S LIFTS OUT INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS TO
AFFECT THE AREA...A LEE SFC TROUGH TO FORM NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...AND
THE FRONT ITSELF TO EASE BACK N. ALL OF THIS WARRANTS INCREASING
POPS WED NT THROUGH THU NT SO THAT WE HAVE CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA THU AND THU NT.
NO IMPORTANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS
GUIDANCE SHOWED NO MAJOR TRENDS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. DID BLEED IN
A LITTLE OF THE ADJMET EARLY ON AND A LITTLE CONSALL LATER ON.
TRENDED DEW POINTS A LITTLE LOWER EARLY ON AND A LITTLE HIGHER LATER
ON...IN CONCERT WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH FEATURES A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SE OF OUR WV AND VA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH
DAY 5. TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL POP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THIS FEATURE FROM WHAT HPC PROPOSED AS OUR WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD
STAY ON THE DRY SIDE GIVEN THE LEE SIDE FRONTAL POSITION. WITH THE
FORECAST FRONT POSITION...RNK SHOULD SEE THE LIONS SHARE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGHT CHC POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES DUE TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. BERMUDA HIGH
NOSES BACK WEST DAYS 6 AND 7 ALLOWING FOR GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT UNDER
THIS REGIME WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS DISTURBED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING IT SLOW CREEP SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF IT CURRENTLY. BULK OF ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KEKN TO KCRW.
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
CLEARING IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHERN WV...EASTERN KY...AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
OHIO RIVER AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER HOLDING IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST MAY HOLD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIDESPREAD FOG MAY NOT FORM AS FORECAST
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB/TAX
AVIATION...TAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY MAY PUMP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TO CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IS ACROSS NW OH WHERE DOWNGRADED POPS TO JUST ISOL/SLGT CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
THIS PIECE OF JET ENERGY WILL BE NEAR THE REGION AROUND MAXIMUM
HEATING. IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE
FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO INDIANA AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
COULD AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR TOLEDO AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER FROM OCCURRING ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS.
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER AND FURTHER N WITH INVERTED TROUGH FRI
THROUGH SUN. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND MOSTLY JUST ALLOW
TO A SMALL CHANCE POP TO MOSTLY THE S AND SE PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE PERIOD.
AS WINDS TURN MORE EAST FRI THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE FOR SAT AND
MOSTLY S FOR SUN...WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MOISTURE WILL RETURN BUT SO
FAR NOT LOOKING LIKE THE HEAT WAVE WE SAW LAST WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INSTABILITY BEST ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI VALUES
NEARING ZERO WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS STABLE WITH VALUES
ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HRRR SUGGESTS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST SO WILL HAVE VCSH IN FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTOL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
N TO NE FLOW NOT DROPPING ENOUGH TO REMOVE SCA SO WILL LEAVE SCA
GOING THROUGH 10 AM EDT AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
WILL EXTEND THE SCA EAST TO INCLUDE ASHTABULA SINCE HIGHEST WINDS
LATELY HAVE BEEN AT CONNEAUT LIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT TROUGH
DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT MAY KICK UP WINDS A BIT AND LEAD TO
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
COULD CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING. MODELS DIFFER BUT GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THE OH VALLEY WED THROUGH FRI. NAM
AND THEN THE ECMWF WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH SO WILL ALLOW TO A
LIGHTER NE TO E FLOW WHICH SHOULD MAKE WAVES UNDER SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...ABE/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION AND OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS MADE LITTLE DENT TO THE CURRENT SHOWERS.
NO CG/S YET...BUT SOME CELLS WERE TALL ENOUGH TO MAKE LTG. SHOWERS
STILL ON-GOING...SO HAVE HIGHER POPS IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF BEFORE MORNING. RUC IS DOING WELL AT
POINTING TO CONVERGENCE AND QPF. WILL KEEP RIDING IT.
WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE L60S IN THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA...THEY ARE BEING STONEWALLED BY LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND MORE-
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE N/W. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NRN TIER OF PA AND SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...ESP IN THE
USUAL COLD RURAL VALLEYS...WHERE MINS WILL LKLY DIP TO AROUND
50F. OTHER THAN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RVR/STREAM VALLEYS IN
THE NORTH...THE WEATHER WILL BE TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
PTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WRN
GLAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MDTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WILL COMBINE WITH A MARGINAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE
AND SERLY OROGRAPHIC LIFT /ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SCENT MTNS/ TO
BRING AND ENHANCED CHC OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSRA
THERE.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CU AND A 15 PERCENT OR LOWER
POP.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY/S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL LIFT NWD EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING/BERMUDA HIGH EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WRN ATLC AND SLOWLY DRIFT WWD INTO THE
ERN/SERN SEABOARD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD BRING
INCREASING DEEP LYR MSTR/HUMIDITY TO THE AREA WITH A SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS ARRIVING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING A
NORTHEASTERLY PATH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTENING LLVL SELY
UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR TSTM WED OR THURS...BUT THE BULK OF THESE DAYS SHOULD BE
DRY. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD COME BY FRI AS PWATS CLIMB TO
+1-2SD. A BROAD RANGE OF 850MB MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD COUPLE WITH
THE PWAT ANOMALY`S...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN THE PATTERN...WITH THE EC
AND GFS BOTH SHOWING ALONG WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE MID WEST LATE SATURDAY...A PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH...LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS TIMING AND THAT THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO ARTICULATE HAVE INCREASED A BROAD
AREA OF POPS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LONG WAVE THROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES WITH DRYING AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MAY
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT PROB OF
ONE HITTING A TAF SITE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS - EXCEPT KIPT
WHERE SHOWER IS SLIPPING PAST THE AIRPORT AT 00Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS
PENN WED THROUGH FRI...BRINGING EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS POSS OF ISOLATED TSTMS
EACH AFTERNOON IN LAUREL MOUNTAINS NEAR KJST-KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN...SCT-NUMEROUS MAINLY PM THUNDERSTORM...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS AND CIGS LIKELY AT TIMES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
807 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...PROVIDING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION AND OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TOWERING CU OVER ALL BUT THE NWRN COS. A FEW OF THESE ARE TALL
ENOUGH TO MAKE SOME RAIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CREATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE NERN MTS AND OVER
THE FAR LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE ON A
COLLISION COURSE IN THE CENTRAL MTS...SO WILL KEEP 20 POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SC MTS. THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL
MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
RAIN...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE GOING AT THIS HOUR AND PERSISTENCE IS
APPEALING RIGHT NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RUC WHICH GENERATES
SHOWERS BETWEEN UNV AND MDT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN TIER OF PA AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...ESP IN THE USUAL COLD RURAL VALLEYS...
WHERE MINS WILL LKLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. OTHER THAN FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE RVR/STREAM VALLEYS IN THE NORTH...THE WEATHER
WILL BE TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WRN
GLAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MDTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WILL COMBINE WITH A MARGINAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE
AND SERLY OROGRAPHIC LIFT /ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SCENT MTNS/ TO
BRING AND ENHANCED CHC OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSRA
THERE.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CU AND A 15 PERCENT OR LOWER
POP.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY/S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL LIFT NWD EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING/BERMUDA HIGH EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WRN ATLC AND SLOWLY DRIFT WWD INTO THE
ERN/SERN SEABOARD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD BRING
INCREASING DEEP LYR MSTR/HUMIDITY TO THE AREA WITH A SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS ARRIVING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING A
NORTHEASTERLY PATH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTENING LLVL SELY
UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR TSTM WED OR THURS...BUT THE BULK OF THESE DAYS SHOULD BE
DRY. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD COME BY FRI AS PWATS CLIMB TO
+1-2SD. A BROAD RANGE OF 850MB MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD COUPLE WITH
THE PWAT ANOMALY`S...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN THE PATTERN...WITH THE EC
AND GFS BOTH SHOWING ALONG WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE MID WEST LATE SATURDAY...A PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH...LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS TIMING AND THAT THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO ARTICULATE HAVE INCREASED A BROAD
AREA OF POPS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LONG WAVE THROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES WITH DRYING AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MAY
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT PROB OF
ONE HITTING A TAF SITE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS - EXCEPT KIPT
WHERE SHOWER IS SLIPPING PAST THE AIRPORT AT 00Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS
PENN WED THROUGH FRI...BRINGING EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS POSS OF ISOLATED TSTMS
EACH AFTERNOON IN LAUREL MOUNTAINS NEAR KJST-KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN...SCT-NUMEROUS MAINLY PM THUNDERSTORM...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS AND CIGS LIKELY AT TIMES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...PROVIDING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION AND OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TOWERING CU OVER ALL BUT THE NWRN COS. A FEW OF THESE ARE TALL
ENOUGH TO MAKE SOME RAIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CREATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE NERN MTS AND OVER
THE FAR LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE ON A
COLLISION COURSE IN THE CENTRAL MTS...SO WILL KEEP 20 POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SC MTS. THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL
MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
RAIN...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE GOING AT THIS HOUR AND PERSISTENCE IS
APPEALING RIGHT NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RUC WHICH GENERATES
SHOWERS BETWEEN UNV AND MDT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN TIER OF PA AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...ESP IN THE USUAL COLD RURAL VALLEYS...
WHERE MINS WILL LKLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. OTHER THAN FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE RVR/STREAM VALLEYS IN THE NORTH...THE WEATHER
WILL BE TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WRN
GLAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MDTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WILL COMBINE WITH A MARGINAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE
AND SERLY OROGRAPHIC LIFT /ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SCENT MTNS/ TO
BRING AND ENHANCED CHC OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSRA
THERE.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CU AND A 15 PERCENT OR LOWER
POP.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY/S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL LIFT NWD EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING/BERMUDA HIGH EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WRN ATLC AND SLOWLY DRIFT WWD INTO THE
ERN/SERN SEABOARD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD BRING
INCREASING DEEP LYR MSTR/HUMIDITY TO THE AREA WITH A SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS ARRIVING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING A
NORTHEASTERLY PATH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTENING LLVL SELY
UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR TSTM WED OR THURS...BUT THE BULK OF THESE DAYS SHOULD BE
DRY. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD COME BY FRI AS PWATS CLIMB TO
+1-2SD. A BROAD RANGE OF 850MB MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD COUPLE WITH
THE PWAT ANOMALY`S...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN THE PATTERN...WITH THE EC
AND GFS BOTH SHOWING ALONG WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE MID WEST LATE SATURDAY...A PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH...LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS TIMING AND THAT THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO ARTICULATE HAVE INCREASED A BROAD
AREA OF POPS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LONG WAVE THROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES WITH DRYING AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SE
ACROSS PENN AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 3 DAY.
A FEW...VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL SPAWN NOTHING MORE THAN HIGHLY ISOLATED MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA. THE BEST CHC FOR BRIEF
RAINFALL AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
TAF SITES /KJST...KAOO...KMDT AND KLNS/.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT AND SUNDAY...SCT-NUMEROUS MAINLY PM THUNDERSTORM...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS AND CIGS LIKELY AT TIMES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...AND WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WITH CLOUDS
FORMING OVER THE MTNS. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING CONVECTION
TO BE ONGOING ATTM...BUT RADAR REMAINS PPINE. STILL EXPECT AN EARLY
INITIATION OVER THE MTNS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NO CIN SHUD
LEAD TO CONVECTION BEGINNING BY NOON. ALSO STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE NORTH AND SCT SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...NUMEROUS COVERAGE
COULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPSTATE OR NE GA OF THE BOUNDARY SLIPS AS
WELL. SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DCAPE
FCST. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL WITH A NICE AREA OF MID LEVEL
DRYING AND COOLING...ESP KGSO. SHEAR WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP FCST SHOWS 20
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NC. ALSO...COLD POOL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF STORMS. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT FCST...SO
MAIN CHANGES WERE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF DAYBREAK...A CONVECTIVE LULL...SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN CUT
BACK BEFORE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS WERE DONE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE OLD ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING
OFF THE E COAST AND THE SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING THE DEEP
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES DOWN
ACROSS TN/NC BY THE END OF THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THAT SHOULD EASILY BE THE
CASE TODAY. THE PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC MIGHT BE LEFT OUT OF THE ACTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING OVER THE MTNS DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AND NO CAP WITH CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP MAINLY OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY
THAT SUBSEQUENT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE NC. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY
POP ACROSS THE NC PART BUT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO A CHANCE OUTSIDE THE
HIGH TERRAIN ACRS NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH IS QUITE WARM AGAIN...BUT
A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY OWING TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
NECESSARY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOWS WELL INTO THE EVENING SO AT LEAST A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 3 AM EDT MONDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALREADY OVER OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY...AND WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT...IT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. GENERALLY THERE IS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT...AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE NAM FORMS A WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY. INITIALLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT BY WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOME
UPSLOPE FROM THE ESE. AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY LATELY...AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS MAY
DEVELOP GRADUALLY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT MONDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MAINTAIN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH FORM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY....WITH WEAK RIDGING OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM NC ACROSS THE GULF
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW
UNLESS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORMS AND MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM THE NORTH TODAY THAT WILL FOCUS CONVECTION
ACROSS TN/NC/VA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT WILL IMPROVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT STARTING SOME TIME LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO 20Z WAS CHOSEN AS THE START TIME FOR A PROB30
AND CHANCES WERE RAMPED UP FROM THERE. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL
EARLY EVENING FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP S AND E INTO METRO
CHARLOTTE...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY GOOD THAT THE AIRFIELD WILL BE
AFFECTED BASED ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A NEARBY FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION COMPARED TO KCLT. ONGOING
STORMS SHOULD AVOID KAVL/KHKY THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MTN VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT RECENT NIGHTS HAVE SEEN ONLY
A BRIEF PERIOD...SO IT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1120 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE WARMED HIGHS IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAPID WARMING THIS MORNING. DESPITE
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY SPARK A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS
ARE HANDLED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER 21Z. THESE STORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT/
WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...PRETTY HARD TO FIND IN WIND FIELDS...DEFINED A BIT
BETTER WITH 925 HPA THETA E...AND LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR AND BEHIND. SUBTLETY RULES IN THIS PATTERN AS HAS BEEN
EVIDENCED WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND
MAY BE THAT TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION TO THIS. WEAK CHANNELLED VORT
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ONE WAVE MOVING ALONG RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER PICKUP IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE KMML AREA. OF NOTE IN LAST HOUR OR TWO IS THE
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS AXIS...MAINLY ALONG AREAS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBTLE INCREASE IN PV ADVECTION. MIGHT BE THIS IS
WHAT NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO PICK UP ON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIFT
AXIS WITH NUISANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. RETAINED SOME ISOLATED LEVEL POPS FOR REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT THAT OTHER
THAN CLOUDS...SHOULD END UP WITH A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD AFTER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INDICATIONS ARE
MOISTURE POOLING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THROUGH
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS ENTIRE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD. AXIS
OF DIV Q REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH THIS AREA...AND DID INTRODUCE A
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDER SOUTHWEST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
IDA GROVE LINE. DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKENING OF LIFT FORCING SHOULD
END PRECIP BY AROUND SUNSET.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD END
UP WITH COOLISH NIGHT...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE
AREA. NAM STRONGEST WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WHICH PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THIS FAIRLY
ALONE WITH DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...DID NOT MESS UP THE
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO OR JUST ABOVE MAX MIXING
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS...AND HAVE KEPT
GENERAL RULE OF FOLLOWING WARMER GUIDANCE /AND LARGER DIURNAL RANGE/
FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HARD TO FIND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH AREA
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG RIDGE. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPACT OF
WAVE COMING OVER RIDGE WILL START TO ENHANCE THE DIV Q ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ADVANCES AND LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ECMWF AND GFS...
WHILE QUITE SIMILAR ON THE LONG WAVE FORECAST...REALLY COULD NOT
PROVE TO BE MUCH MORE DIFFERENT IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE INTENT ON HOLDING LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TO 7-10C FOR
925 HPA TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
YEAR...AND GIVEN THE HISTORY AND DRYNESS...EXPECT THAT A WARMER
SOLUTION SHOULD BE PREFERRED. FAIRLY COOL 700 HPA TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO AS IMPACT OF WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE
AND SHEARING IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DIV Q LINGERS FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
GOING STARTING EARLY THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST...AND EXITING THE
NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...WITH A FORECAST SHIFT TOWARD A STRONGER
ECMWF FLAVOR...THAT WE COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING BACK SOME NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS
TO THE WESTERN CWA. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
629 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT/
WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...PRETTY HARD TO FIND IN WIND FIELDS...DEFINED A BIT
BETTER WITH 925 HPA THETA E...AND LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR AND BEHIND. SUBTLETY RULES IN THIS PATTERN AS HAS BEEN
EVIDENCED WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND
MAY BE THAT TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION TO THIS. WEAK CHANNELLED VORT
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ONE WAVE MOVING ALONG RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER PICKUP IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE KMML AREA. OF NOTE IN LAST HOUR OR TWO IS THE
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS AXIS...MAINLY ALONG AREAS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBTLE INCREASE IN PV ADVECTION. MIGHT BE THIS IS
WHAT NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO PICK UP ON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIFT
AXIS WITH NUISANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. RETAINED SOME ISOLATED LEVEL POPS FOR REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT THAT OTHER
THAN CLOUDS...SHOULD END UP WITH A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD AFTER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INDICATIONS ARE
MOISTURE POOLING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THROUGH
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS ENTIRE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD. AXIS
OF DIV Q REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH THIS AREA...AND DID INTRODUCE A
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDER SOUTHWEST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
IDA GROVE LINE. DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKENING OF LIFT FORCING SHOULD
END PRECIP BY AROUND SUNSET.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD END
UP WITH COOLISH NIGHT...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE
AREA. NAM STRONGEST WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WHICH PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THIS FAIRLY
ALONE WITH DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...DID NOT MESS UP THE
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO OR JUST ABOVE MAX MIXING
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS...AND HAVE KEPT
GENERAL RULE OF FOLLOWING WARMER GUIDANCE /AND LARGER DIURNAL RANGE/
FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HARD TO FIND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH AREA
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG RIDGE. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPACT OF
WAVE COMING OVER RIDGE WILL START TO ENHANCE THE DIV Q ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ADVANCES AND LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ECMWF AND GFS...
WHILE QUITE SIMILAR ON THE LONG WAVE FORECAST...REALLY COULD NOT
PROVE TO BE MUCH MORE DIFFERENT IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE INTENT ON HOLDING LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TO 7-10C FOR
925 HPA TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
YEAR...AND GIVEN THE HISTORY AND DRYNESS...EXPECT THAT A WARMER
SOLUTION SHOULD BE PREFERRED. FAIRLY COOL 700 HPA TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO AS IMPACT OF WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE
AND SHEARING IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DIV Q LINGERS FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
GOING STARTING EARLY THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST...AND EXITING THE
NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...WITH A FORECAST SHIFT TOWARD A STRONGER
ECMWF FLAVOR...THAT WE COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING BACK SOME NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS
TO THE WESTERN CWA. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND COULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. /08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
417 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT/
WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...PRETTY HARD TO FIND IN WIND FIELDS...DEFINED A BIT
BETTER WITH 925 HPA THETA E...AND LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR AND BEHIND. SUBTLETY RULES IN THIS PATTERN AS HAS BEEN
EVIDENCED WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND
MAY BE THAT TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION TO THIS. WEAK CHANNELLED VORT
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ONE WAVE MOVING ALONG RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER PICKUP IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE KMML AREA. OF NOTE IN LAST HOUR OR TWO IS THE
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS AXIS...MAINLY ALONG AREAS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBTLE INCREASE IN PV ADVECTION. MIGHT BE THIS IS
WHAT NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO PICK UP ON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIFT
AXIS WITH NUISANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. RETAINED SOME ISOLATED LEVEL POPS FOR REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT THAT OTHER
THAN CLOUDS...SHOULD END UP WITH A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD AFTER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INDICATIONS ARE
MOISTURE POOLING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THROUGH
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS ENTIRE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD. AXIS
OF DIV Q REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH THIS AREA...AND DID INTRODUCE A
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDER SOUTHWEST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
IDA GROVE LINE. DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKENING OF LIFT FORCING SHOULD
END PRECIP BY AROUND SUNSET.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD END
UP WITH COOLISH NIGHT...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE
AREA. NAM STRONGEST WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WHICH PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THIS FAIRLY
ALONE WITH DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...DID NOT MESS UP THE
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO OR JUST ABOVE MAX MIXING
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS...AND HAVE KEPT
GENERAL RULE OF FOLLOWING WARMER GUIDANCE /AND LARGER DIURNAL RANGE/
FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HARD TO FIND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH AREA
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG RIDGE. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPACT OF
WAVE COMING OVER RIDGE WILL START TO ENHANCE THE DIV Q ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ADVANCES AND LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ECMWF AND GFS...
WHILE QUITE SIMILAR ON THE LONG WAVE FORECAST...REALLY COULD NOT
PROVE TO BE MUCH MORE DIFFERENT IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE INTENT ON HOLDING LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TO 7-10C FOR
925 HPA TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
YEAR...AND GIVEN THE HISTORY AND DRYNESS...EXPECT THAT A WARMER
SOLUTION SHOULD BE PREFERRED. FAIRLY COOL 700 HPA TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO AS IMPACT OF WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE
AND SHEARING IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DIV Q LINGERS FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
GOING STARTING EARLY THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST...AND EXITING THE
NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...WITH A FORECAST SHIFT TOWARD A STRONGER
ECMWF FLAVOR...THAT WE COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING BACK SOME NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS
TO THE WESTERN CWA. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z EAST OF I29. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE TAF PD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACTING TO LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS AND THUS...LOOK FOR SCT TO BKN ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE TAF AREAS LATER THIS AFT AND EVE. PATCHY FOG AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE LEVELS
DEEPEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
CURRENTLY CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS STABLE IN THE UPPER 70S
THIS MORNING OVER NASHVILLE. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
HIGH 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND TOUCH THE 90S IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...THESE TEMPS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FRONT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-STATE AND EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, HOWEVER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1108 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS STABLE IN THE UPPER 70S
THIS MORNING OVER NASHVILLE. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
HIGH 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND TOUCH THE 90S IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...THESE TEMPS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FRONT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-STATE AND EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, HOWEVER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1043 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION UPDATE...
THIS DISCUSSION PERTAINS TO THE KCSV TAF ONLY.
WILL BE AMENDING KCSV TAF AS NEEDED EVEN THOUGH OBSERVATIONS ARE
NOT AUTOMATICALLY MAKING IT INTO TO OUR AWIPS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
I WILL REUPDATE THIS DISCUSSION AND ADVISE ONCE THIS PROBLEM IS
FIXED. IN THE MEANTIME...I WILL BE DIALING IN ONCE OR TWICE AN
HOUR TO GET THE LATEST KCSV OBSERVATION AND WILL THEN AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. KEEP IN MIND AMENDMENTS...BECAUSE OF THIS...MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY NEAR KCDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IN UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM JUST EAST OF DEVELOPING
WESTERN RIDGE. CHANGED KCDS TAF SLIGHTLY FOR VCTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TEMPO -TSRA. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE. RETAINED PROB30 THUNDER
CHANCES BOTH TAF SITES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO
MORE DEFINITE SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...
SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING TOWARDS BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THESE WILL HELP ESTABLISH MORE
DEFINITE NORTHEAST COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...DIFFICULT HOWEVER TO
DETERMINE WHICH ONE AT THIS POINT IS MORE THE ACTUAL FRONT. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE STILL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING
ACROSS KLBB AGAIN BY MID EVENING FOLLOWING ONE OF THESE OUTFLOWS
THOUGH DIFFERS FROM WRF/NAM IN THIS REGARDS. ALSO...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...IN BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS...APPEARS IT
MAY REMAIN EAST OF KLBB. WE DID RETAIN THE VCTS AT KCDS THIS EVENING
AND VCSH THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL COMPLEX MORE IN-
LINE WITH BRUSHING BY KCDS. ANYWAY...THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OUT SO WE WILL
UPDATE IF/WHEN THEY APPEAR CAPABLE OF HITTING/MISSING EITHER SITE.
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH FOR PROB30 THUNDER
GROUPS TO BE ADDED TO BOTH SITES FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING 36 HOURS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY HAS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WAS UP A NOTCH FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MODEST WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500
J/KG...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND OVERALL STEERING FLOW WAS WEAK.
THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY
PULSED UP TO STRONG LEVELS...THOUGH THEY HAVE COLLAPSED JUST AS
QUICKLY...WITH NEW REDEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING A LONG ANTICIPATED SHIFT...WITH
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COMING 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL HELP TO BEND THE RESIDUAL MONSOONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A POSITIVE PV ANOMALY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
ZONES...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK OUTFLOW AIDED/MASKED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EASE
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE SFC WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT IN BETTER MOISTURE LEVEL AT/NEAR
THE SFC. ALL OF THESE FACTORS TOGETHER WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BEFORE
THEN...EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COULD KEEP A LITTLE ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT...FAVORING
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. DO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THAT SAID...THE ENTIRE AREA STANDS A GOOD
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE RAISED POPS SOLIDLY
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED 40-60
PERCENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE
UP SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS...BUT AGAIN THE WEAK SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. INSTEAD...SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER MONDAY AFTER ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO VARY FROM THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
80S ACROSS THE NW ZONES TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SE ZONES.
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWV TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THE PERIOD OF DEEPEST LIFT WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200J/KG
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED SFC HEATING WILL REDUCE THE OVERALL THREAT.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE AREA ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND BEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AL TOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GENERAL
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE PWATS AVERAGE 1.5"-1.75" WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAY TUE THEN TAPERED OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECIDED ALSO TO ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO GRIDS GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM
MOTION.
ALL SHORT-MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRIER AIR
WORKING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AS NRLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATES INTO FAR SW TX. ADDITIONAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED BUT
OVERALL LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DRIER AIR PRECLUDES MUCH IN
WAY OF POPS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS LINGERING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM SE
NM INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST
INTO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOME SHORTWV ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO GET LEFT
BEHIND AND CUTOFF FROM LONGWV TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS ENERGY COULD BECOME A PLAYER LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WEST UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH FOR
MORE ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME OTHER TO ACKNOWLEDGE ITS PRESENCE. NONETHELESS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SLOWLY DRIES OUT FROM RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND HEIGHTS
RISE. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY AVOID VAULTING BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IF WE CAN HOLD OFF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
REBUILDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 83 65 75 60 / 30 50 60 60 30
TULIA 65 84 65 78 63 / 30 50 60 60 30
PLAINVIEW 70 86 65 80 63 / 20 50 60 60 30
LEVELLAND 67 87 67 80 65 / 20 40 60 60 40
LUBBOCK 71 89 67 80 66 / 20 40 60 60 40
DENVER CITY 66 90 68 81 67 / 20 30 60 60 40
BROWNFIELD 69 90 68 82 67 / 20 30 60 60 40
CHILDRESS 74 91 71 87 67 / 30 50 50 50 20
SPUR 70 92 70 84 68 / 20 40 50 50 30
ASPERMONT 72 94 71 88 70 / 20 30 50 50 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN OR FOUR CORNERS
REGION THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER HIGH TRYING TO REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE NAM HOLDS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT UP
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS...WHILE THE RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GRIDS. WILL EXPAND THE POPS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE TONIGHT PERIOD AND UPDATE
WIND GRIDS BASED ON POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT ONGOING FORECAST LOOS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH
THE LATEST NAM DATA AND UPDATE THE 20 FOOT WINDS.
ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 5
TO 15 KNOTS.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. WITH NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS HIGH THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN DECREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AFTER
THIS...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SHORTWAVE OR UPPER LEVEL
LOW RIDING BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
NF
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
MPH...AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BRINGING MOISTURE TO DRIER FUELS AROUND
THE PANHANDLES.
NF/JG
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
853 AM PDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY FOR LESS MORNING
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING WHEREAS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE STRATUS
OVER THE INTERIOR TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. THE COAST WILL
LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN ALL DAY DUE TO TIGHTENING OF THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED OVER THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE VORT MAX OR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA LATE LAST NIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 0900 UTC
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST /SREF/ AND THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK OF
TSTMS IN ZONE 505. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUNTED EWD THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WED. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR TOMORROW. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT MOST PLACES. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SOME BY WED AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE INTERIOR WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
BUT DISAGREE ON DETAILS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH OR UPPER
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED. MERCER
&&
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO PUSH INLAND TO THE
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS FROM SEATTLE AND HOOD CANAL SOUTHWARD. A
RIBBON OF STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED IN THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA TO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS...ROSARIO STRAIT...AND THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SKAGIT AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. CLOUD BASES AROUND
AROUND 005 MSL WITH TOPS OF 016-020. WITH STRONG EARLY JULY
INSOLATION...EXPECT STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND AREA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z THEN PUSH BACK TO NEAR THE WASHINGTON
COAST 20-21Z.
IN THE MEANTIME...A DISTURBANCE IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OREGON CASCADES IN UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES AND IN THE EAST
PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS NEAR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DISTURBANCE WORKS NORTHWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTION WORKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADES
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS MOVING IN
AGAIN TONIGHT...REACHING KSHN ABOUT 06Z...KOLM AND KPAE 10Z...AND
KSEA BY 12Z. A SIMILAR MIDDAY BREAKOUT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
KSEA...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TURN WEST AROUND 18Z. SEATAC WILL
BE NEAR WHERE THE NLY FLOW MOVING DOWN THE SOUND AND THE SWLY FLOW
COMING IN FROM THE CHEHALIS GAP MEET THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS FOR THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD AT THE TERMINAL IS QUITE
TRICKY. AT THIS TIME WILL USE NAM12 GUIDANCE THAT PUTS KSEA ON THE
BOUNDARY FOR A WLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL BURN OFF
RAPIDLY AROUND 18Z THEN WILL FILL BACK IN WITH BASES AT 004 BETWEEN
10Z AND 12Z. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
STRONG INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER ADMIRALTY
INLET...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
THE DIURNALLY OCCURRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY
AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHWEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A LOW CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND. FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
THIS FLOW EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS TROUGH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/THIS PAST EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO TOWARD THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
AS OF 3 AM.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE REGION FROM ONTARIO/MANITOBA. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TAKING THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN IMPACT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION/CAP AROUND 700MB
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN RATHER STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. BASED ON THIS STRONGER
SIGNAL AND NAM 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE...DECIDED TO
ADD SMALL-END SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INDICATED IN THE THU/FRI TIME
PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE GFS WHICH TENDS TO OVER-DO CONVECTION PAINTS SOME LIGHT
QPF ON US BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH DRY FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
APPEARS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S/NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTING SCT TO LOCALLY BKN 5-7K FT CUMULUS ACROSS
THE AREA...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. GIVEN ISOLATED PRECIP COVERAGE...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN
KLSE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IF A SHRA/TSRA DOES OCCUR AT
KLSE...IT WOULD BE BRIEF. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHRA/
TSRA AGAIN MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
631 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHWEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A LOW CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND. FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
THIS FLOW EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS TROUGH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/THIS PAST EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO TOWARD THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
AS OF 3 AM.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE REGION FROM ONTARIO/MANITOBA. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TAKING THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN IMPACT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION/CAP AROUND 700MB
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN RATHER STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. BASED ON THIS STRONGER
SIGNAL AND NAM 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE...DECIDED TO
ADD SMALL-END SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INDICATED IN THE THU/FRI TIME
PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE GFS WHICH TENDS TO OVER-DO CONVECTION PAINTS SOME LIGHT
QPF ON US BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH DRY FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
APPEARS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S/NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
631 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING ON. 09.08Z HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT SKIES IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHWEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A LOW CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND. FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
THIS FLOW EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS TROUGH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/THIS PAST EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO TOWARD THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
AS OF 3 AM.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE REGION FROM ONTARIO/MANITOBA. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TAKING THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN IMPACT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION/CAP AROUND 700MB
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN RATHER STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. BASED ON THIS STRONGER
SIGNAL AND NAM 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE...DECIDED TO
ADD SMALL-END SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INDICATED IN THE THU/FRI TIME
PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE GFS WHICH TENDS TO OVER-DO CONVECTION PAINTS SOME LIGHT
QPF ON US BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH DRY FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
APPEARS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S/NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS POPPED UP THIS EVENING ON THE WEAK BOUNDARY
PRODUCED BY THE EARLY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. SOME OF THESE NORTH
OF KRST LOOKED LIKE THEY WOULD BE WITHIN 10NM FOR THE INCLUSION OF
A VCSH...BUT THESE ARE DISSIPATING NOW AS RAPIDLY AS THEY FORMED
AND DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THEM. WILL HOLD ONTO
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE REMAINS OF THE
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE NORTH 5 TO 10
KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
540 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADD THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SPRINKLES IN EAST-CENTRAL OHIO.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A DRY,
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH BROKEN MID DECK CLOUDS
ADVECTING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUES TO BE IN A ZONAL FLOW TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.
THUS, THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
FORECAST TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE RIDGES. DIURNAL HEATING WITH WEAK INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE) MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE RIDGES. TAKING THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ALONG
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WRF-ARW AND SREF, CHC POPS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY AND BELIEVE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THUS, HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE EASTERN RIDGES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY A
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TONIGHT, SO LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE 500MB FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. THUS, SCHC POPS ARE FORECAST SOUTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS ARE CLOSEST TO MET GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ITS POSITION ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, USING BLEND OF GFS MOS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH DAYTIME TODAY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG DURING EARLY MORNING EACH
DAY. STARTING LATE FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A DRY,
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, SKIES ARE CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUES TO BE IN A ZONAL FLOW TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.
THUS, THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
FORECAST TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE RIDGES. DIURNAL HEATING WITH WEAK INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE) MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE RIDGES. TAKING THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ALONG
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WRF-ARW AND SREF, CHC POPS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY AND BELIEVE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THUS, HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE EASTERN RIDGES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY A
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TONIGHT, SO LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE 500MB FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. THUS, SCHC POPS ARE FORECAST SOUTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS ARE CLOSEST TO MET GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ITS POSITION ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, USING BLEND OF GFS MOS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH DAYTIME TODAY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG DURING EARLY MORNING EACH
DAY. STARTING LATE FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A DRY,
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, SKIES ARE CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A ZONAL FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THUS, THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST
TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
RIDGES. DIURNAL HEATING WITH WEAK INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE)
MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
RIDGES. TAKING THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
WRF-ARW AND SREF, CHC POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGES. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY AND BELIEVE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THUS, HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE EASTERN RIDGES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY A
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TONIGHT, SO LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GEFS AND SREF REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE ABOUT BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...WITH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHUNTING PRECIPITATION INTO INDIANA AND
WESTERN OHIO. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY...AND BRING JUST
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS INTERSTATE 70 THURSDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT IGNORE THE CHANCE POPS SHOWN EVERYWHERE BY THE ENSEMBLES ON
FRIDAY...AND HAVE THOSE POPS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...WITH
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WHERE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ALSO SHOW PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO
AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ITS POSITION ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, USING BLEND OF GFS MOS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH DAYTIME TODAY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG DURING EARLY MORNING EACH
DAY. STARTING LATE FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY WILL END BY 07Z BUT CURRENT TRENDS WOULD
IMPLY SOONER, WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF ENDING SHOWERS
BY 06Z.
10 PM UPDATE...
MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN NE PA. STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN VERY QUICKLY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POOLING
DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S. MODELS NOT HANDLING WELL. EXTENDING THE
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. MOVEMENT IS SLOWLY TO THE ESE BUT
SOME HEAVY RAIN STILL THERE. SHOULD BE A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL AND THE SHORT WAVE PASSES TO
THE SE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN CENTRAL NY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
7 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES HANGING ON ALONG A TROF IN NORTHEAST PA
AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 50S IN NEW YORK ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLY ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
TWEAKING TEMPS/DP/RH, SKY COVER, AND WINDS/WIND GUSTS. MODELS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, LEADING TO A HIGH
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THIS WOULD WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT FORECAST
IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING, AS IT REFLECTS THIS.
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER NEPA WILL CLEAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE TAFS, THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KAVP, AND POSSIBLY EVEN KELM
DUE TO SOME SFC MOISTURE FROM RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID DAY TOMORROW. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND AROUND 5KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE/SLI
AVIATION...SLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
125 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY WILL END BY 07Z BUT CURRENT TRENDS WOULD
IMPLY SOONER, WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF ENDING SHOWERS
BY 06Z.
10 PM UPDATE...
MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN NE PA. STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN VERY QUICKLY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POOLING
DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S. MODELS NOT HANDLING WELL. EXTENDING THE
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. MOVEMENT IS SLOWLY TO THE ESE BUT
SOME HEAVY RAIN STILL THERE. SHOULD BE A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL AND THE SHORT WAVE PASSES TO
THE SE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN CENTRAL NY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
7 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES HANGING ON ALONG A TROF IN NORTHEAST PA
AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 50S IN NEW YORK ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLY ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER NEPA WILL CLEAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE TAFS, THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KAVP, AND POSSIBLY EVEN KELM
DUE TO SOME SFC MOISTURE FROM RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID DAY TOMORROW. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND AROUND 5KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY WILL END BY 07Z BUT CURRENT TRENDS WOULD
IMPLY SOONER, WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF ENDING SHOWERS
BY 06Z.
10 PM UPDATE...
MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN NE PA. STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN VERY QUICKLY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POOLING
DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 60S. MODELS NOT HANDLING WELL. EXTENDING THE
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. MOVEMENT IS SLOWLY TO THE ESE BUT
SOME HEAVY RAIN STILL THERE. SHOULD BE A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL AND THE SHORT WAVE PASSES TO
THE SE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN CENTRAL NY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
7 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES HANGING ON ALONG A TROF IN NORTHEAST PA
AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 50S IN NEW YORK ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLY ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATNIG THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HWOEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR WV PASSING THRU NE PA WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS ARND AVP FOR
THE NEXT CPL HRS...OTRW LTL IN THE WAY OF WX THIS PD. VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY FOR
XTNSV FOG FORMATION AT ELM. LGT WINDS TNGT WILL BECOME NLY AND WED
WITH MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
251 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK... BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 PM TUESDAY...
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED 850-700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED
WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A 130KT JET CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WILL
INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.8 NW PIEDMONT
TO 2.1 INCHES SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN) TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 22Z RUN OF
THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z SPC WRF SUGGEST SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND LINGER INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS AS DEEP SW-W FLOW WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS BELIEVE SUCH OCCURRENCES
WILL BE LIMITED IN NUMBER.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN A
REGION OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STALLED SURFACE TROUGH/DECAYING DIFFUSE
FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NC DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS AS NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT RANGE NEAR 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
AND SANDHILLS AREA TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A SHEAR AXIS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR WESTERN NC AND NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER DURING
THE PERIOD. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
ONGOING FORECAST WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LIMITED BUT THE 12Z NAM NOTED SOMEWHAT STRONGER BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 15-25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 83-88 WHILE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST AND A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH NEAR THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...WITH THE NAM NOW ALSO MOVING THE WAVE OUT TO SEA AND
THEREFORE NOT DRAWING AS MUCH DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THEREFORE WILL TREND POPS
FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
WITH REGARDS TO ANY SEVERE THREAT...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...SHEAR AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALL PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...THEREFORE
AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AS CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF 800-1200 J/KG...HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
NEVERTHELESS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIP CHANCES AREAWIDE THROUGH MONDAY (WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY DRY) AND THE BEST CHANCES EACH DAY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EAST WILL
SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGING AS IT BUILDS IN. THEN BY
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA...RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH AT LEAST LOW 90S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KGSO AND KINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOWER AT MOST LOCATIONS...IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY...TO MVFR AND
IFR. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE LOWER IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL GET AT
INDIVIDUALLY LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z IS LOW.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NC TODAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A WEAK AND
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DURING WHICH TIME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
OCCURRENCE OF PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...WSS/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK... BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 PM TUESDAY...
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED 850-700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED
WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A 130KT JET CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WILL
INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.8 NW PIEDMONT
TO 2.1 INCHES SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN) TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 22Z RUN OF
THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z SPC WRF SUGGEST SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND LINGER INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS AS DEEP SW-W FLOW WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS BELIEVE SUCH OCCURRENCES
WILL BE LIMITED IN NUMBER.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN A REGION OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
STALLED SURFACE TROUGH/DECAYING DIFFUSE FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NC DURING THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIR MASS AS NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT RANGE
NEAR 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
AREA TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A SHEAR AXIS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS FAR WESTERN NC AND NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER DURING THE
PERIOD. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
ONGOING FORECAST WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIMITED BUT THE 12Z NAM NOTED SOMEWHAT
STRONGER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 15-25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL AND RANGE
FROM 83-88 WHILE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY MORNING... WITH
A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ATLANTIC HIGH
SLOWLY EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND FOR FRIDAY AND PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST JUST INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE WAKE OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE PIEDMONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK.
LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY MOSTLY ABSENT OTHER THAN
DAYTIME HEATING EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN
HIGH AT AROUND TWO INCHES. HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST (70 PERCENT) WHERE
SOUTHEAST FLOW POTENTIALLY FRICTIONALLY CONVERGENT... OR WITH A
SEABREEZE... DROPPING TO FIFTY PERCENT NORTH. CONVECTION WILL WANE
IN THE LATE EVENING... WITH SOME SHOWERS PERHAPS SURVIVING TO DAWN.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ABOVE SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY... SO A SIMILAR
FORECAST.
THE AIR MASS DRYS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD SOUTH AND
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE. AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
30 PERCENT THOUGH SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
FURTHER EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES FALL TO ONE IN SEVEN.
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR THE
EARLY WORK WEEK... AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH...
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO THIRTY PERCENT NORTH AND SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH.
A WARMING TREND IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... 85 TO 90 SATURDAY... AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KGSO AND KINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOWER AT MOST LOCATIONS...IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY...TO MVFR AND
IFR. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE LOWER IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL GET AT
INDIVIDUALLY LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z IS LOW.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NC TODAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A WEAK AND
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DURING WHICH TIME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
OCCURRENCE OF PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WSS/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
419 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY TODAY...LIMITING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM
NORTH OF ST LOUIS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
IS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT IS HOLDING
THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE RAP IS HANDLING THESE
CLOUDS (AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS) FAIRLY WELL...SHOWING AN AREA OF
850MB CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED RH. THIS MOISTURE MAY NOT DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS...THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED TOO APPRECIABLY
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUDS...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE OBSERVED
TEMPS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO NAM/MET NUMBERS.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD INTO THE FAR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGHER-RES
MODELS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OWENTON-TO-LUCASVILLE LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH. AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND UP TOWARD LAKE ERIE...AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING NORTH LATE ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED FRIDAY
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE. CALLING THIS SYSTEM A WARM FRONT
MAY BE COUNTER-INTUITIVE...SINCE MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AS
THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA.
WHILE THE GENERAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE PRETTY WELL
FIGURED...THE DETAILS ON WHEN THE MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVES AND THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE NOT BEING HANDLED
CONSISTENTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN. THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH SUPPORT ON FRIDAY EVENING TO USE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN
THE LATEST RUNS...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL STILL LIKELY BE A BIT
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE OVERALL AREA OF
RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY
EAST...ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM TIME TO TIME. A RETURN
TO DRIER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME ZONAL WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. FRIDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SURFACE INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY ROTATE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACRS THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL
IN ALL...TODAY WILL LOOK LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY WITH HIGH
BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE SFC
INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY POP A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. PLAN
ON KEEPING ALL TAFS DRY CONSIDERING THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONCE THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COOL. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1025 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1030AM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO SOME OHIO
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH KPBZ RADAR IS DOWN
FOR MAINTENANCE...TPIT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER GUERNSEY
AND MUSKINGUM COUNTIES...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY KRLX AND KILN.
APPARENTLY THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BE WITH US FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL ALSO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THIS
AREA AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A DRY,
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH BROKEN MID DECK CLOUDS
ADVECTING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUES TO BE IN A ZONAL FLOW TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.
THUS, THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
FORECAST TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE RIDGES. DIURNAL HEATING WITH WEAK INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE) MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE RIDGES. TAKING THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ALONG
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WRF-ARW AND SREF, CHC POPS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY AND BELIEVE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THUS, HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE EASTERN RIDGES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY A
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TONIGHT, SO LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE 500MB FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. THUS, SCHC POPS ARE FORECAST SOUTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS ARE CLOSEST TO MET GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ITS POSITION ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, USING BLEND OF GFS MOS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH DAYTIME TODAY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG DURING EARLY MORNING EACH
DAY. STARTING LATE FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
818 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES WITH THE 815AM UPDATE WERE TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A DRY,
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH BROKEN MID DECK CLOUDS
ADVECTING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUES TO BE IN A ZONAL FLOW TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.
THUS, THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
FORECAST TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE RIDGES. DIURNAL HEATING WITH WEAK INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE) MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE RIDGES. TAKING THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ALONG
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WRF-ARW AND SREF, CHC POPS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
850 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY AND BELIEVE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
WARMER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THUS, HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE EASTERN RIDGES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY A
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TONIGHT, SO LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE 500MB FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. THUS, SCHC POPS ARE FORECAST SOUTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS ARE CLOSEST TO MET GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ITS POSITION ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, USING BLEND OF GFS MOS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH DAYTIME TODAY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG DURING EARLY MORNING EACH
DAY. STARTING LATE FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY TODAY...LIMITING ANY CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM
NORTH OF ST LOUIS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
IS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT IS HOLDING
THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE RAP IS HANDLING THESE
CLOUDS (AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS) FAIRLY WELL...SHOWING AN AREA OF
850MB CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED RH. THIS MOISTURE MAY NOT DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS...THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED TOO APPRECIABLY
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUDS...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE OBSERVED
TEMPS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO NAM/MET NUMBERS.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD INTO THE FAR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGHER-RES
MODELS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OWENTON-TO-LUCASVILLE LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH. AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND UP TOWARD LAKE ERIE...AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING NORTH LATE ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED FRIDAY
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE. CALLING THIS SYSTEM A WARM FRONT
MAY BE COUNTER-INTUITIVE...SINCE MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AS
THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA.
WHILE THE GENERAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE PRETTY WELL
FIGURED...THE DETAILS ON WHEN THE MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVES AND THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE NOT BEING HANDLED
CONSISTENTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN. THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH SUPPORT ON FRIDAY EVENING TO USE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN
THE LATEST RUNS...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL STILL LIKELY BE A BIT
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE OVERALL AREA OF
RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY
EAST...ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM TIME TO TIME. A RETURN
TO DRIER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME ZONAL WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. FRIDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SURFACE INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY ROTATE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACRS THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL
IN ALL...TODAY WILL LOOK LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY WITH HIGH
BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE SFC
INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY POP A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. PLAN
ON KEEPING ALL TAFS DRY CONSIDERING THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONCE THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COOL. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NE UT AT MID-AFTERNOON REACHES FAR
NW CO THIS EVENING PER RAP MODEL. HIGH-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
PRECIP WITH IT...CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIER AIR SHOWN THERE ON THE
19Z PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS. BUT A BIT MORE VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN LONGER LIVED STORMS THERE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY APPEARED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...AS
SOME DID TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
ANY STORM BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITED A MORE PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THU WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH SOME LOWER VALLEYS IN ERN UT AND WEST-
CENTRAL CO AROUND THE 100 DEG MARK. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN SLIDING EAST
LATE THU. MODELS HAVE IT CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
BY FRI MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST FROM EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT TO EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO.
THEREFORE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
AND DEEPEN ON SATURDAY...FOR A RETURN TO A WETTER REGIME. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE PACIFIC LOW AND
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...FOR A MORE ENERGETIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MAY KEEP
CONVECTION ONGOING OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM TO SOUTHEAST CO...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ONLY ENHANCE CONVECTION. BY MIDWEEK THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS IN GENERAL EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TODAY AND ON
THU. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER
RAIN. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG OVER THE FAR NORTH MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BUT
LITTLE RAIN. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF THESE DRY STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH SOME STORMS OVER THIS SAME PORTION
OF THE AREA PRODUCING BETTER RAINFALL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OF THE WET VARIETY.
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ON RECENT BURN SCARS. ANY GOOD RAINS OVER THESE SCARS
COULD PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOWS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1119 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
SATELLITE REVEALED A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS NRN UT THIS MORNING
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP MODEL SHOWS
IT REACHING NW CO LATE TODAY. EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UINTA MTNS AGAIN TODAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NW CO. DISTURBANCE MAY INCREASE
SHEAR ENOUGH THAT SOME STORMS COULD ALSO BE LONGER LIVED. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF NE UT/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A
DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME SEMBLANCE
OF AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER UTAH TODAY WITH MOISTURE
CIRCULATING AROUND IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION. IN THE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL PRIMARILY HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. SCATTERED STORMS THAT FIRE OVER THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING CORTEZ AND DURANGO. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH PWATS IN THE 0.75 RANGE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FOR STORMS TO
LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CWA WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 0.5 TO 0.7 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE SW COLORADO
AND SE UTAH WHERE PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 0.8 INCHES FOR
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCERS. STORMS LOOK TO
OCCUR AMONG THOSE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AGAIN AND LAST INTO THE EVENING
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GREATEST THERE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN
SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT FROM OVER NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO FOR FRIDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND BE OVER AN INCH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...A 40 TO 50 KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY PROVIDING SOME FORCING TO
THE CWA. ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH STORMS
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME WETTING RAINS ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE ABOUT 10 KTS SO FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF ANY STORMS SIT OVER ALREADY
BURNED AREAS FROM RECENT WILDFIRES. STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
LAST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOSER TO
NORMAL READINGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING EAST OF
COLORADO..SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY DUE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PROVIDING SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING AND INCREASED SHEAR.
BUT THE REMAINING DAYS WILL STAY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
WITH THE MEAN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST...STORMS WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE LOWER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENERAL AT THE TAF SITES. CONVECTIVE
BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL THEN DRIFT OVER THE
VALLEYS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER
RAIN. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN A LITTLE...AND AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS UP NORTH...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH COULD BE DRY. ALSO LIGHTNING ON THE
EDGES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO PRODUCE WETTING RAINS COULD PRODUCE
A FEW FIRE STARTS. HOWEVER COVERAGE OF DRY STORMS STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SO WILL NOT HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGH
LIGHTS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS INVERTED
V ENVIRONMENT ARE APT TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SEE
UPDATE SECTION ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...PF/MA
LONG TERM...MA/PF
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
SATELLITE REVEALED A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS NRN UT THIS MORNING
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAP MODEL SHOWS
IT REACHING NW CO LATE TODAY. EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UINTA MTNS AGAIN TODAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NW CO. DISTURBANCE MAY INCREASE
SHEAR ENOUGH THAT SOME STORMS COULD ALSO BE LONGER LIVED. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF NE UT/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A
DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME SEMBLANCE
OF AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER UTAH TODAY WITH MOISTURE
CIRCULATING AROUND IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION. IN THE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL PRIMARILY HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. SCATTERED STORMS THAT FIRE OVER THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING CORTEZ AND DURANGO. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH PWATS IN THE 0.75 RANGE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FOR STORMS TO
LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CWA WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 0.5 TO 0.7 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE SW COLORADO
AND SE UTAH WHERE PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 0.8 INCHES FOR
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCERS. STORMS LOOK TO
OCCUR AMONG THOSE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AGAIN AND LAST INTO THE EVENING
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GREATEST THERE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN
SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PLUME TO
SHIFT FROM OVER NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO FOR FRIDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND BE OVER AN INCH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...A 40 TO 50 KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY PROVIDING SOME FORCING TO
THE CWA. ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH STORMS
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME WETTING RAINS ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE ABOUT 10 KTS SO FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF ANY STORMS SIT OVER ALREADY
BURNED AREAS FROM RECENT WILDFIRES. STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
LAST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOSER TO
NORMAL READINGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING EAST OF
COLORADO..SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY DUE TO SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PROVIDING SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING AND INCREASED SHEAR.
BUT THE REMAINING DAYS WILL STAY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
WITH THE MEAN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST...STORMS WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE LOWER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENERAL AT THE TAF SITES. CONVECTIVE
BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL THEN DRIFT OVER THE
VALLEYS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER
RAIN. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...PF/MA
LONG TERM...MA/PF
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
158 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY... ALLOWING A RETURN
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR N THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS...WHILE AT 700 HPA A VORTICITY
MINIMUM ROTATES AROUND THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE NET SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE DYNAMICALLY FORCING. THIS COUPLED WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON LEADS TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY TO OVERCOME THE MID LEVEL
NEGATIVE FORCING...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST. AN
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSTM OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT HOWEVER...BUT WITH ONLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE IT CANNOT BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE A SEABREEZE ENHANCED SE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CUTOFF DEEP MIXING FROM S TO N.
UPDATED HIGHS WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...775 HPA WELL INLAND AND 825 HPA IN
BETWEEN...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV AND 00Z MET
GUIDANCE. THIS PRODUCE RESULTS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND MID
TO MAYBE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AFTER ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION
NORTH/WEST OF NYC WANES. THIS PLUS LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 70 IN NYC.
THU SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS PLUS
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A WARMER DAY...WITH MOST
PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. GFS SUGGESTION OF
ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO
ITS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS SURGING TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FCST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BECOMES DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY. NWP SYSTEMS
SUGGEST THAT THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NGT AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE OR OVER SOUTHERN MAINE SUNDAY EVE. THIS DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION WITH SFC TROUGHING. GFS AND CMC IN
GOOD AGREEMENT HERE - LATEST 00Z ECMWF STILL DOES NOT HAVE THIS FOR
SOME REASON. THE 00Z GEFS THOUGH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THUS AM KEEPING FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH
LATEST AVAILABLE GFS.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES START IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...BUT CLIMB
TO AN UNCOMFORTABLE 70 BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH A TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME PCPN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT SAT EVE. THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY - LI OF -2 TO -4 C AND SBCAPES OF 1500
J/KG. SEVERE DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS SHEAR IS LOW - PERHAPS 20 KT.
THE THREAT/CONCERN WOULD BE MORE WITH THE PWATS BEING AT OR OVER 2
INCHES AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING. FORTUNATELY...ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE DRY...SO THE MAIN THREAT IS URBAN IN NATURE.
THIS WOULD BE SAT NGT AND/OR SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.
WE REMAIN IN THE MT AIR MASS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN
THE REGION. SO CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTN CONVECTION CONTINUES.
WHILE GFS SUGGESTS A RETURN TO CP AIR MASS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK -
THAT IS REALLY BEYOND THE RANGE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THIS PATTERN.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE 85 TO 90...THOUGH SOME LOWER 90S FOR
THE NJ/NY METRO STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS MOS DATA
SETS. THE HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
STARTING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS.
SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE SCATTERING OUT THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT
SE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TO 5-12 KT TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE 30 HOUR
TAF SITES.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SEAS SHOULD BUILD LATE TODAY INTO THU AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SE OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD IDEA OF A
STRONGER OFFSHORE LOW PASSING BY...WITH BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS FOR A SHORT PD LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW MAX
SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 4 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO REVISIT THIS WITH
NEXT SET OF NEW GUIDANCE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THEREAFTER.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 2 INCHES.
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING...AROUND 15 KT...AND THUS THERE
IS A THREAT OF URBAN FLOODING WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY...THUS RIVER FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/JST
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/JST
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1239 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY... ALLOWING A RETURN
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR N THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS...WHILE AT 700 HPA A VORTICITY
MINIMUM ROTATES AROUND THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE NET SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE DYNAMICALLY FORCING. THIS COUPLED WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON LEADS TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY TO OVERCOME THE MID LEVEL
NEGATIVE FORCING...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST. AN
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSTM OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT HOWEVER...BUT WITH ONLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE IT CANNOT BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE A SEABREEZE ENHANCED SE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CUTOFF DEEP MIXING FROM S TO N.
UPDATED HIGHS WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...775 HPA WELL INLAND AND 825 HPA IN
BETWEEN...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV AND 00Z MET
GUIDANCE. THIS PRODUCE RESULTS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND MID
TO MAYBE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AFTER ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION
NORTH/WEST OF NYC WANES. THIS PLUS LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 70 IN NYC.
THU SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS PLUS
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A WARMER DAY...WITH MOST
PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. GFS SUGGESTION OF
ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO
ITS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS SURGING TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FCST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BECOMES DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY. NWP SYSTEMS
SUGGEST THAT THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NGT AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE OR OVER SOUTHERN MAINE SUNDAY EVE. THIS DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION WITH SFC TROUGHING. GFS AND CMC IN
GOOD AGREEMENT HERE - LATEST 00Z ECMWF STILL DOES NOT HAVE THIS FOR
SOME REASON. THE 00Z GEFS THOUGH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THUS AM KEEPING FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH
LATEST AVAILABLE GFS.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES START IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...BUT CLIMB
TO AN UNCOMFORTABLE 70 BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH A TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME PCPN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT SAT EVE. THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY - LI OF -2 TO -4 C AND SBCAPES OF 1500
J/KG. SEVERE DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS SHEAR IS LOW - PERHAPS 20 KT.
THE THREAT/CONCERN WOULD BE MORE WITH THE PWATS BEING AT OR OVER 2
INCHES AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING. FORTUNATELY...ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE DRY...SO THE MAIN THREAT IS URBAN IN NATURE.
THIS WOULD BE SAT NGT AND/OR SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.
WE REMAIN IN THE MT AIR MASS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN
THE REGION. SO CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTN CONVECTION CONTINUES.
WHILE GFS SUGGESTS A RETURN TO CP AIR MASS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK -
THAT IS REALLY BEYOND THE RANGE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THIS PATTERN.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE 85 TO 90...THOUGH SOME LOWER 90S FOR
THE NJ/NY METRO STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS MOS DATA
SETS. THE HUMIDITY PUSHES HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
STARTING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE REGION.
SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...WHILE SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON 5-10 KT.
THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR WINDS
INCREASING ABOVE 10 KTS SOONER THAN FORECASTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SEAS SHOULD BUILD LATE TODAY INTO THU AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SE OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD IDEA OF A
STRONGER OFFSHORE LOW PASSING BY...WITH BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS FOR A SHORT PD LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW MAX
SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 4 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO REVISIT THIS WITH
NEXT SET OF NEW GUIDANCE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THEREAFTER.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 2 INCHES.
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING...AROUND 15 KT...AND THUS THERE
IS A THREAT OF URBAN FLOODING WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY...THUS RIVER FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JST
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...BC/SEARS
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN/JST
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
14Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH CENTER OF RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. RUC 1.5 PVU ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL SMALL
PV ANOMALIES MOVING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. 12Z RAOBS CONTINUED THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING NOTED AT DNR AROUND H65.
AT THE SFC...1020MB HIGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.
REST OF TODAY...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS COLORADO. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN MINIMAL CHANGES OBSERVED ON
SOUNDINGS DO NOT THINK THINGS WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TEMP
WISE. WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK CINH TODAY...HAVE
DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP GIVING WARMING ALOFT NOTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THINK DRY FORECAST STILL WARRANTED.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INDUCING AN AREA OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON EDGE OF H7 THERMAL RIDGE. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SMALL POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA...ELEVATED CINH
PROFILES REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND HAVE DOUBTS THAT OVERALL WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR
STORMS. PV ANOMALY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...WITH SFC FRONT LAGGING WELL BEHIND IT. GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND BEST NEAR SFC FORCING ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT THERE WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALSO MAKE IT DOUBTFUL
THAT ANYTHING INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
CWA BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...HAVE DELAYED PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL AFTER
21Z IN THE NORTH AND REMOVED THEM ELSEWHERE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT TO
HOLD UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN CWA WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW WITH MID AND UPPER 90S EXPECTED
ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE AND
GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR THIS
WEEKEND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.
IN THE NEARTERM...AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION THURSDAY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE BUT HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCES OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WORKING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADVECTING IN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS DRIER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS MAYBE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN WHICH DAYS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT HOW THE UPPER PATTERN ULTIMATELY
EVOLVES.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM ALL MODELS SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN HOLD IN THE 30-32C RANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEREFORE TREND
BACK INTO THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT A REPEAT OF THE RECORD HEAT FROM LATE JUNE WILL
RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE...TEMPERATURES WITH RETURN OF ANOTHER HOT AND
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY
DIURNAL HEATING HAS PROMOTED AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE THERMAL TROF ALOFT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND LATEST RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST
THEY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CARRY ISOLATED
MENTION UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT
UNDER SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT A BIT LESS
DIURNAL CU AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE TAIL END OF VORTICITY AND UPPER
JET NOSING INTO KANSAS. HOWEVER MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD MITIGATE OR LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO A ROGUE/ISOLATED
NATURE SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO AND PERHAPS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE GENERALLY SUGGESTS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUBTLE VARIANCES IN THE HANDLING OF WEAK
TROUGHINESS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DO POSE SOME CHALLENGES. THIS
IS MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERLIES MIGRATING UNDER THE RIDGE FROM
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS GULF COAST PERHAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD TEMPER THE COMING HOT STRETCH AND AT
THE MOMENT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS BRUTAL AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED IN
LATE JUNE. THAT SAID...MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES TO MATCH SEEM VERY REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS. LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT...AND VEERING TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND
FROM 6000-9000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF KCNU...AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
INTERACTS WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
KCNU TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND SPARSE COVERAGE.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 66 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 67 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 66 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 65 95 67 96 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 67 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 66 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 68 96 69 96 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
14Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH CENTER OF RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. RUC 1.5 PVU ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL SMALL
PV ANOMALIES MOVING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. 12Z RAOBS CONTINUED THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING NOTED AT DNR AROUND H65.
AT THE SFC...1020MB HIGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.
REST OF TODAY...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH SHITS EAST AND TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS COLORADO. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN MINIMAL CHANGES OBSERVED ON
SOUNDINGS DO NOT THINK THINGS WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TEMP
WISE. WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK CINH TODAY...HAVE
DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP GIVING WARMING ALOFT NOTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THINK DRY FORECAST STILL WARRANTED.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INDUCING AN AREA OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON EDGE OF H7 THERMAL RIDGE. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SMALL POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA...ELEVATED CINH
PROFILES REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND HAVE DOUBTS THAT OVERALL WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR
STORMS. PV ANOMALY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...WITH SFC FRONT LAGGING WELL BEHIND IT. GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND BEST NEAR SFC FORCING ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT THERE WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALSO MAKE IT DOUBTFUL
THAT ANYTHING INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
CWA BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...HAVE DELAYED PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL AFTER
21Z IN THE NORTH AND REMOVED THEM ELSEWHERE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT TO HOLD
UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN EASTERN CWA WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW WITH MID AND UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
MODELS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE TONIGHT IN SHIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH ANOTHER RIGHT ON ITS HEELS MOVING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY
TUESDAY THE BROAD RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE
AGAIN...ALLOWING MONSOONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TRICKY AS
MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. FEEL THAT WITH SURFACE TROUGH POSITION
OVER THE AREA A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AN MAY
HELP TO SUSTAIN ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FELT THERE WAS A
CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION...WITH BETTER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
254 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THE FIRST IS
PUSHING INTO WRN ND AND THE SECOND MOVING INTO SWRN MT PER WV
IMAGERY AND RAP PVU FIELDS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SCT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE PUSHING
EWD. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM MCK TO VTN. NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIES IN SFC THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT). UPPER FEATURE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE BUT DIFFER
IN THE HANDLING OF ASSOCIATED UPPER PV FEATURES AND RESULTING
CONVECTION AS THE SFC REFLECTION /COLD FRONT/ MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER PV MAX AND HENCE BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE NAM HAS AN
UPPER PV MAX MOVING INTO NWRN NEBRASKA WHICH SERVES TO PROMOTE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BELIEVING THE GFS
IDEA IS AT LEAST PARTIAL DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS WOULD
YIELD CHC POPS ALONG AND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. FRONT WILL BE MEETING
RESISTENCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DIURNAL PLAINS LLJ THRU THURS MORNING
AND PRE-EXISTING HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE....SO LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPE DISTRIBUTION IS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR VERTICALLY SO
WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXPECT UPDRAFTS WILL BE PULSE
TYPE EXCEPT WHERE ORGANIZATION CAN BE SUSTAINED...SUCH AS CLOSE TO
THE FRONT AND WHERE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS DICTATE. RESULT
SHOULD BE LIMTED LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SVR
WIND GUSTS.
.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE STATE.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND IT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF/GEM/FIM MODELS...AND MANY OF
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRID VALUES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD MID WEEK...POSSIBLY USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF FOR KLBF AND KVTN.
VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH BASED
CU THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
KVTN-KLBF BUT SHOULDNT GET BEYOND SCT. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PASSAGE EXPECTED AFTER
18Z...WHEN ISOLD TO SCT TSRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR KVTN...BUT
AGAIN AFTER 12/18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JWS
EXTENDED...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON
THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, BRINGS A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS... AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST AREA RUC SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING CAPE VALUES FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG BUT WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR
THIS AFTERNOON. HI RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SHOWING SCT-ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NE PA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
NORTHEAST PA. WILL TWEAK POPS UP IN THE LOCALIZED AREA WHERE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM... OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATED AT 10 AM... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST 12Z BUF
AND PIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
ALONG WITH SOME CAPPING. FULL MIXING OF THESE SOUNDINGS WOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH MOSTLY THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCTS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN PA. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NY COULD STILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15 TO 20 PCT
RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA... AND LOWER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
640 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT
TERM TEMP/DEW POINT ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AT 415 AM...SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
BIT MORE CLOUD ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY 700-1200 J/KG
WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER. ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID LEVEL
CAP SO ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TODAY BUT HIGHER DEW POINTS
IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...GFS...EURO..CMC AND NAM ALL
INDICATE THAT A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AND
FAIRLY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD BY FRI PM.
THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES TO A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY UP THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING THU
NGT BUT LASTING THRU FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE AND MORE DESTABILIZATION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING EACH DAY. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON VARIOUS SCENARIOS
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE NAM AND EURO SUGGESTS FRIDAY REMAINS
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CMC BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT
SHRA AND TSRA FRI PM. THEN ON SATURDAY...GFS LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACVTY OVR NY AND PA WITH THE
CMC AND NAM LESS SO. THE EURO DOES NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REACHING ANY OF OUR CWA EVEN ON SAT.
SO WHAT TO DO...I DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND COLLABORATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS FROM FRI INTO SAT. POPS PEAK IN THE 30S ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLIMB THRU THE
PERIOD TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. I SEE NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OR FLOOD EVENTS THRU THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE LONG RANGE I USED HPC AND BLENDED MY GRIDS WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MORE TWEEKS WILL COME BEFORE WE SEND THEM TO THE NDFD
SERVER AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES FINISH THEIR LONG TERM GRIDS. FOR
THE WEEKEND...THE SWRLY MOIST LL FLOW CONTINUES ON THE EURO...CMC
AND GFS WITH A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT. BELIEVE SCTRD SHRA AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AGAIN SUN PM...AFTER A WANING PERIOD
SAT NGT. FOR MONDAY MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SORT OF SHRT WAVE
TROF PUSHES EAST INTO NY AND PA WITH MORE CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA.
THIS TROF WILL PUSH A FRNT THRU THE REGION WHICH WILL EVENUALLY
CLEAR THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY. HENCE MORE POPS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF AVP OVER THE
POCONOS... CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCT
CLOUDS FROM 5 TO 8 KFT. SOME FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z... WITH CONDITIONS AT ELM LIKELY
FALLING TO IFR VSBYS AT TMIES... OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...MOSTLY VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
109 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON
THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, BRINGS A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS... AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST AREA RUC SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING CAPE VALUES FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG BUT WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR
THIS AFTERNOON. HI RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SHOWING SCT-ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NE PA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
NORTHEAST PA. WILL TWEAK POPS UP IN THE LOCALIZED AREA WHERE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM... OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATED AT 10 AM... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST 12Z BUF
AND PIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
ALONG WITH SOME CAPPING. FULL MIXING OF THESE SOUNDINGS WOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH MOSTLY THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCTS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN PA. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NY COULD STILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15 TO 20 PCT
RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA... AND LOWER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
640 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT
TERM TEMP/DEW POINT ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AT 415 AM...SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
BIT MORE CLOUD ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY 700-1200 J/KG
WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER. ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID LEVEL
CAP SO ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TODAY BUT HIGHER DEW POINTS
IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS AND HEIGHTS
RISE TO 590DM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. MAX
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY DUE TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY TRIGGER. ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH MODELS INDICATING BETTER CAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. WITH
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC FOR TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS WEST AS MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND SFC LOW PRES LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
TWEAKING TEMPS/DP/RH, SKY COVER, AND WINDS/WIND GUSTS. MODELS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, LEADING TO A HIGH
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THIS WOULD WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT FORECAST
IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING, AS IT REFLECTS THIS.
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
KAVP AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE NOT
PLACED ANY SHRA IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID DAY TOMORROW. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND AROUND 5KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/SLI
AVIATION...SLI