Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/10/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NEAR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST TSTMS AT 2040Z
WERE JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON AND EAST OF WILLCOX. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE RUC HRRR AND UNIV OF AZ NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE RUC FAVORS AN AREA FOR PRECIP FROM JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON WWD INTO THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...NAM-WRF FAVORS AN AREA FOR PRECIP FROM NE OF TUCSON
TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ INTO THIS EVENING. WILL DEPICT ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR
WEST AS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF COCHISE
COUNTY. THE BULK OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
MON-TUE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BECOME CENTERED OVER NWRN AZ/SWRN UT. CHANCE-
CATEGORY POPS MERITED FOR ERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN SECTIONS.
WED-FRI...
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER HIGH TO BE OVER UTAH/WRN COLORADO. ELY
MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
MOVE INTO SE AZ THIS PERIOD. THE 08/12Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST WITH
QPF/S VERSUS THE ECMWF. ALSO...GFS WAS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE
DEPICTION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE AREA VERSUS
ECMWF. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND THUS TRENDED POPS UPWARD...
ESPECIALLY WED-THUR. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS MERITED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS MOST SECTIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
SAT-SUN...
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED THIS PERIOD VIA THE GFS/
ECMWF. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ERN SECTIONS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WEST OF TUCSON.
HIGH TEMPS MON-TUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO THEN OCCUR WED-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA THRU THIS EVENING THEN BULK OF
PRECIP TO END BY 09/06Z. ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY FROM KTUS
VICINITY EWD MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
10/00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. EXPECT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
923 AM MST SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ERN COCHISE COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED GENERALLY FROM THE MID
50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-20 DEGS F HIGHER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THIS TIME SAT. 08/12Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...PARTICULARLY IN THE SURFACE-700 MB
LAYER. TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.35 INCHES...AND THIS VALUE IS
WITHIN THE RANGE OF 1.20 - 1.40 INCHES DEPICTED ACROSS SE AZ AS PER
THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT. HAVE NOTED THAT THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS STRONGER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ADVANCED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THIS
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. 08/09Z SREF...08/12Z UNIV OF
AZ NAM/WRF...AND 08/13Z RUC HRRR WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING TO OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS GENERALLY FROM HANNAGAN MEADOW TO TUCSON TO WEST OF
NOGALES. ASSUMING THE RUC HRRR TO BE REALITY...SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP BY AROUND NOON ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS JUST SW
OF TUCSON. SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THEN MOVE WWD PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS WRN
PIMA COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BULK OF ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS EXTENDED FURTHER WWD INTO
THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION THIS EVENING WITH DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL INCREASE POPS TO DEPICT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BASED ON THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...INVERTED TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH WEST THIS
MORNING BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CHALLENGING FORECAST
TODAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS OVER THE AREA NARROWS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MODELS ALSO SHOWING CONFLICTING IDEAS FOR TODAY. NAM
KEEPS STORMS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE GFS IS HINTING AT MOVING
STORMS OFF THE RIM TOWARD TUCSON AND SW. STORMS ON THE RIM TRIED TO
MOVE SW ON SATURDAY BUT DIED BEFORE GETTING TO SAFFORD. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST IN TACK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THEN
STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BULK OF PRECIP TO END BY 09/06Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SURFACE WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU MONDAY MORNING OR 09/12.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL LEAD TO STRONG RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. STRONG...
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST
THIS AFTN. LATEST HRRR AND SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SEEMS TO DEVELOP
MORE PCPN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTN. PCPN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDONE BY THE MDLS OVER THE
NERN PLAINS WITH JUST LIGHT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING. STORM
TODAY WILL BE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHEST. SLOW MOVING STORMS AGAIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER ONE INCH SO HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING STILL AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE BURN AREAS AND IN
LOCATIONS ALREADY SATURATED FM HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. CIGS WL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 6K FT TODAY. NO BIG CHANGES OVERALL IN THE
TIMING WITH STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 21Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY THIS AM. A LOOK
AT OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE RAINFALL RATES FROM .1-.3 INCHES
PER HOUR AND HAVE RECEIVED NO CALLS ABOUT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THIS BROAD AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING AND
EXPECT WE WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE. FURTHER WEST...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED
EXCEPT FOR SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
OVERALL WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS INDICATING VALUES FROM 1.20 TO 1.41 OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S OVER ALL OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. SO WITH ALL THIS
MOISTURE WHAT CAN WE DO WITH IT TODAY? THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE THE BROAD UPPER HIGH WHICH IS SHIFTING AND REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST OF COLORADO. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT FROM WEAK
WESTERLY THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS EVEN BY
EVENING WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WHICH MAY KEEP STORMS
ANCHORED ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE IS
A LOT OF DISCREPANCY ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WRF SIMULATED GOES IMAGERY KEEPS MOST
OF THE STRONGER STORMS INDEED ANCHORED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER THRU THIS EVENING WHILE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT. THE NAM FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS GENERATES THIS HUGE BLOB OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
SEEMS TO BE ANCHORED TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE RIDGE.
AT THIS TIME I FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION WITH WEAKER STORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TODAY AND
THE AIRMASS HAS REALLY BEEN WORKED OVER. THE BEST CONVECTION WILL
PLAY OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND THEN STRETCHING THRU SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. HENCE THIS IS WHERE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE TODAY FROM 17Z THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
WILL ADJUST WEATHER AND POP GRIDS ACCORDING WITH THIS LINE OF
REASONING. ESPECIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF
RAIN TO RESULT IN MORE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY SINCE 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT STORM COVERAGE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO OUR WEST...FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO GOES
NORTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. BELOW 600 MBS...HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT DURING THE MORNING AND AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND DURING THE MORNING...
THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
MORNING CONVECTION. THE OTHER MODELS SHOW MOST OF THIS MORNING
CONVECTION/STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DENVER
METRO AREA. LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE CONVECTION/QPF APPEARS
TO SHIFT OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE WITH THE ONSET OF EASTERLY SFC WINDS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO STORMS EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SOUTH PARK AREA WHERE
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
UP INTO THIS HIGH ALTITUDE BASIN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WOBBLES BACK AND
FORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN BY
THURSDAY MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE AMPLIFYING EASTWARD OVER COLORADO.
700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE PROGGED TO WARM TO
THE 17-18C RANGE BY THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. HIGH COUNTRY
LOCALS SHOULD ALSO SEE A STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES AFTER
TUESDAY. MOIST AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE STORM CHANCES
ON THE PLAINS LOOKS MEAGER AT BEST WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
THE HIGH SIDE. BY SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF OFFER DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS BEING THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS. WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT...WILL KEEP THE PLAINS
DRY AND VERY WARM ON SATURDAY AND GO WITH A USUAL CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
&&
AVIATION...VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATUS AT LOCAL TERMINALS BUT
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEOGORY AND WILL PLAY THIS CONTINUATION
THROUGH MID MORNING. AIRMASS IS STILL SATURATED SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE FOR THE MOST
PART AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 22Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z OR
SO. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY...BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...ADJ PLAINS AND WESTERN PALMER
DIVIDE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WHCIH HAS FALLEN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITONAL WATER TO
GENERATE MORE FLASH FLOODING ESPECAILLY OVER THE BURN AREAS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HIGH
PW VALUES AGAIN RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UP TO 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ035-036-038>041.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER/ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER/ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...FIRST CONCERN TONIGHT IA POSSIBILITY OF FG OR BR AT
KCOS. HAVE NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN TAF...BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN
AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE SOME PC FG DEVELOP. CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME. ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME BR AT KALS...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOWER AND
ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. NEXT CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
AFTER 18Z FOR MOST OF SE CO. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN FROM SCT S IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MORE NMRS
SHRA IN THE EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SUN. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST HIGH RES OUTPUT...LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT HAS
ENDED WITH HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHIFTING NWD INTO NE CO. WILL STILL
SEE SOME ISOLD SHWR AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS EXPANDING OVR THE CWA...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS
TOMORROW. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THIS MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE AREA
WERE ABOUT 170-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING A LITTLE FOR SUN...AS THE
MONSOON MSTR PLUME REMAINS OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUN.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE HYR TRRN TODAY AND WITH
THE ABUNDANT MSTR OVR THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY...PROBABLY
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WL PROBABLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THEN BY AFTERNOON SUN...WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING A THREAT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ON SUN...WITH THE HYR TRRN AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL RUNS AND SEE WHICH AREAS THEY ARE SHOWING THE HIGHEST HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POTENTIAL. A WATCH WL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
WHAT AREAS GET HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THE NSSL 4KM WRF IS SHOWING THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY BEING BETWEEN ABOUT 7 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM.
LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A DRIER MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A SLOW
MOVING UPPER VORT MAX WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL SEND A BOUNDARY SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND TURN FLOW
MORE NORTHEASTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO
NEAR LAMAR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL. MODELS VARY ON WHEN THEY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AT
LEAST LOW POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BECOME EMINENT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH SHIFTS EAST INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
RETURN TO DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRINGS A
RETURN TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH FORCES THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE BACK INTO THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. 88
AVIATION...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF PCPN WL DECREASE...BUT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
WEEK WHILE MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITHIN ABOUT
10 MILES OF THE SOUTH-FACING COASTS AS SEA BREEZES HAVE INITIATED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. SIMULATED RADAR PRODUCT FROM NAM...SPC WRF
AND HRRR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS POPPING UP DURING THIS
TIME. 12Z GFS HINTS AT THIS AS WELL. WITH PRIMARILY NVA FORECAST
BELOW 500MB AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SO
FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR MON AND TUE
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
80S BOTH DAYS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S
IN THE SUBURBS...AND MID TO UPPER 60S NYC.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MON AFT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER ACROSS THE HILLS WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC. DRY AIR AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS AND
THUS FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY.
GENERALLY...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SKIES. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AT
TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MODELS DIVERGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES AND AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF
AND THE 12Z GFS IS THAT THE GFS BRINGS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. THIS SURFACE LOW IS IN
RESPONSE TO A CUT OFF LOW THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE GFS
WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...ESP CONCERNING HOW FAR THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. HAVING PUSHED THROUGH IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SITES ALREADY...BEGAN THE TAFS WITH A SLY FLOW IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
MOD CONFIDENCE OF IT MAKING KLGA AROUND 21Z...LOW TO MOD
CONFIDENCE OF REACHING KEWR SO KEPT ONLY A SWLY FLOW AFTER 21Z FOR
THEM.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE N
AND EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
PSBL LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME OF TIMING AND OCCURRENCE. SO WILL WITHHOLD FROM
MENTIONING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SUB VFR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE MARINE ZONES TODAY WITH SUB-SCA CRITERIA WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT
AND SEAS WILL BE 1 FT OR LESS ON LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/BAYS.
QUIET CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES BUILD TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
WEEK WHILE MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITHIN ABOUT
10 MILES OF THE SOUTH-FACING COASTS AS SEA BREEZES HAVE INITIATED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. SIMULATED RADAR PRODUCT FROM NAM...SPC WRF
AND HRRR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS POPPING UP DURING THIS
TIME. 12Z GFS HINTS AT THIS AS WELL. WITH PRIMARILY NVA FORECAST
BELOW 500MB AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SO
FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR MON AND TUE
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
80S BOTH DAYS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S
IN THE SUBURBS...AND MID TO UPPER 60S NYC.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MON AFT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER ACROSS THE HILLS WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC. DRY AIR AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS AND
THUS FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY.
GENERALLY...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SKIES. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AT
TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MODELS DIVERGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES AND AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF
AND THE 12Z GFS IS THAT THE GFS BRINGS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. THIS SURFACE LOW IS IN
RESPONSE TO A CUT OFF LOW THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE GFS
WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WINDS AT 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...BACKING TO A W-NW
FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT
IMMEDIATE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO
MORE OF A SW FLOW.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
PSBL LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME OF TIMING AND OCCURRENCE. SO WILL WITHHOLD FROM
MENTIONING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE MARINE ZONES TODAY WITH SUB-SCA CRITERIA WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT
AND SEAS WILL BE 1 FT OR LESS ON LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/BAYS.
QUIET CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES BUILD TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS/MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER
THE CONTROL OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
BEING FORCED WAY UP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THIS RIDGE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMER FASHION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE IS
QUITE WEAK AND WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DOMINATE
THE FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE RIDGING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH...COMBINED WITH LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO TRIGGER
A SCATTERING OF NOCTURNAL/MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE PASSING TROUGH. ONCE
WE GET INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY AND AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS TO RESULT IN
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGH END
CHANCE NORTH AND MAINLY LIKELY SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER LAND TO LIKELY DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER LOOK FOR POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ACTIVE
NOCTURNAL SURGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FL FROM THE OPEN
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT INTO THE GULF AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO THE GULF
WITH AN AXIS OVER CENTRAL FL THAT SHIFTS TO NORTH FL OR SOUTH GA BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PERMIT
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE SEA BREEZE AND DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED EACH AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED
EACH EVENING. TEMPERATURES RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO BE AROUND. BEST CHANCE IS LIKELY OVER
FMY AND RSW AS WELL AS INLAND AFFECTING LAL. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE NEAR THE COAST WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN A TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 93 77 91 / 30 30 30 50
FMY 75 94 75 90 / 20 40 30 60
GIF 74 95 74 94 / 30 30 30 40
SRQ 76 92 75 91 / 20 30 30 50
BKV 71 93 71 93 / 30 30 30 50
SPG 79 92 79 91 / 30 30 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE (TODAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER
THE CONTROL OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
BEING FORCED WAY UP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THIS RIDGE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMER FASHION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE IS
QUITE WEAK AND WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DOMINATE
THE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS MID-MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE
80S. RADAR SHOWING A FEW LAND BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE ISOLATED CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE LAND BREEZE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FOCUS WEAKEN. ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO
SEA-BREEZE LAND BASED CONVECTION. PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF WIDELY SCT MID AFTERNOON-MID EVENING STORMS. LOOKING AT
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...DON`T SEE ANYTHING SPECIAL TO
SUGGEST EITHER AN ESPECIALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO DEEP
CONVECTION...OR ONE WHICH WOULD FAVOR ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. MID-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ARE A BIT LOW...BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY HOSTILE. THEREFORE THE 30% NORTH/CENTRAL AND 40% SOUTH
POP GRIDS INHERITED FROM LAST NIGHT APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN
16-18Z. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS LEVEL
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
THOSE AREA THAT CAN AVOID ANY STORMS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND AROUND 90 TOWARD THE
COAST. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY!
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WILL
SPLIT WITH ONE CENTER RETROGRADING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
ANOTHER WEAKER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MID LEVEL DRY AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE STORM
COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON THE LOW
SIDE TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM THE COAST TO INLAND
WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM COVERAGE (POPS 40
PERCENT) ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
DURING TUESDAY WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH (PW`S APPROACHING 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES) SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS (50 PERCENT) ALONG THE COAST AND 40 PERCENT
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION AND LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING AFTERNOON BAY AND SEA BREEZES BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z. EXPECT SOME VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND FMY
AND RSW.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DRIFT NORTH SOME
FROM MID WEEK ON. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH
LOW SEAS AND AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 93 77 92 77 / 20 20 20 20
FMY 93 75 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
GIF 95 75 95 74 / 30 10 30 10
SRQ 92 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 94 70 94 72 / 30 20 30 20
SPG 92 80 92 78 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1257 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS TODAY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH THIS FEATURE, VCSH IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VCTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS, BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z. WINDS MAINLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT AT KAPF
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WSW BY 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND
IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES DEPICT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. UPDATED
GRIDS SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS S FLA TONIGHT
WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXPECTED TO THE S OF THE AREA
OVER THE FLA STRAITS. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE VCSH E COAST OVER NIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE TERMINALS AND WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED IF DIFFERENT CONDITIONS DEVELOP. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP INLAND
FROM THE TERMINALS AFT 08/15Z AND MOVE WEST INTO THE EVERGLADES. SURFACE
WINDS EASTERLY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KAPF...POSSIBLE VCSH
UNTIL 03Z THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM
KAPF AFT 08/18Z AND VCTS IN TAF. WINDS AT KAPF EASTERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WITH A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFT 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ... LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90`S EAST COAST BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY.
SOME AREAS IN THE INTERIOR CAN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90`S.
AS FAR AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE US BETWEEN NOW AND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NE US WITH A TRAILING FRONT POSSIBLY
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, INTERIOR, AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AREAS SOUTH
OF US 41, WHICH CONNECT MIAMI TO NAPLES, CAN SEE AN INCREASE IN THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.
MARINE...IN TERMS OF WINDS AND WAVES...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. OVERALL...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC SEAS NEAR 2 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION...(ISSUED 129 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012)
NORTHERN END OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSRA AND THIS WILL BE THE
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER INTERIOR AND W CST, WITH TSRA AND
PREVAILING VFR AT KAPF COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME BEING.
AFTER 00Z, SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE E CST WITH VCSH
AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS AND VSBYS, BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH OR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IN FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 90 79 / 40 20 30 20
MIAMI 92 78 90 79 / 40 20 30 20
NAPLES 91 77 91 78 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
611 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
08/22Z RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS
IN PLACE WHICH HAS KEPT DEEP CONVECTION FROM INITIATING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WESTERN ZONES. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN
THE 80S WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS AND BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 70S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TYPE PATTERN...WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDLANDS WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS
PULSE TYPE CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED 20
POPS FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN MODEST MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
INLAND COUNTIES NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG A INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE MID LVL RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED AN INCREASING TREND
OF PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG AN ENHANCED LEE TROUGH INLAND. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BY MIDWEEK AS THE ENHANCED LEE TROUGH INLAND AND EASTWARD
SLIDING ATLANTIC HIGH RESULT IN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH ENHANCED PRECIP COVERAGE AND THE LINGERING COLD FRONT IN
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 90S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED...AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED TO OUR WEST
WHILE A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NC/SC LATE
IN THE WEEK AND ENHANCES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE TO OUR WEST BUT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT NEXT WEEKEND WE MAY SEE UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH COULD DECREASE RAIN
POTENTIAL A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS 15-20
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE WATERS
REMAIN BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE
TROUGH. EXPECT FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES OVER LAND. A SOLID 15 KT WIND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BEFORE
MOVING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WHILE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS AROUND MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FEET...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING
CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING CAUSING
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE. SO INCREASED THE WINDS BASED ON THE RUC MODEL AS WELL AS
LOWERING THE DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL LOWER THE HEAT INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL FURTHER AWAY FROM HEAT INDEX CRITERIA.
ALSO MOVED BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENING AS WELL.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. USED THE HIGHER MET
MOS POPS OF AROUND 30 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS AGAIN NEAR 100.
THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD HELP SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NORTH PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET MOS POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LINGERING DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER OVER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CAROLINA SO EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST TIME...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED SETUP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND EARLY MORNING FOG
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1048 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING
CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING CAUSING
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE. SO INCREASED THE WINDS BASED ON THE RUC MODEL AS WELL AS
LOWERING THE DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL LOWER THE HEAT INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL FURTHER AWAY FROM HEAT INDEX CRITERIA.
ALSO MOVED BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENING AS WELL.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. USED THE HIGHER MET
MOS POPS OF AROUND 30 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS AGAIN NEAR 100.
THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD HELP SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NORTH PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET MOS POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LINGERING DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING PRODUCING
A MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER WINDS. INCREASED
WINDS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD DROP AND BACK TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT PER NAM GUIDANCE. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF LLWS MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE NOW. NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE
LOW LEVEL JET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND EARLY MORNING FOG
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
948 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST POPS AND DEW POINTS...BUT
OTHERWISE GOING TEMPERATURE TREND LOOKS GOOD AS WELCOME COOL AND
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT IS BETTER EVOLVING AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SLOWLY INTO
AND THROUGH THE 70S. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTED TO 30 MPH IN CHICAGO WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
A DRIER CORRIDOR OF AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S IS WORKING
SOUTHWARD ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE LAKE DOWN EASTERN WI. HAVE
LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO FALL OUT IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.
EARLIER STORMS TRIGGERED ON THE CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND IN
THE PRESENCE OF BASICALLY NO SHEAR. ON WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE
CHANNELS AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS DEPICT THE WARM UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND STILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE OUR AREA /500 MB TEMPS AT -5C AND HEIGHTS AT 595DM/.
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...IT APPEARS SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN THE PAST
HALF HOUR HAVE SEEN A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND CANT RULE THAT OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVING UPPER JET SUPPORT WORKS SOUTHWARD. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
301 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAS SET UP. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS THE BOUNDARY HAS INTENSIFIED ON RADAR...AND A
FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG IT. THE CELLS CAN BE
CONSIDERED GLORIFIED RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF LIGHTNING AND
THE FACT THAT MOST ARE WEAKENING AS SOON AS THEY POP UP.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000+ J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE
ACROSS IL AND IN. THEREFORE ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS TODAY IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
WIDESPREAD STORMS AND A GOOD SOAKING RAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS A BIT WASHED OUT AND DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY...BUT LIES ROUGHLY ACROSS I-90 THROUGH THE MI/IN STATE
LINE. WINDS WILL TURN N TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ARE WEAK AT BEST. WITH MINIMAL CAPE
INDICATED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO KEEP VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING POOLING OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I-88 TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
CAPE. AS SUCH INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NOON WITH THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH CAA IN THE
AREA...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO
ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OR A SOAKING
RAIN.
FOR TEMPS...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE HAVE RISEN TO 100 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS EXPECTED. RFD HAS BEEN THE HOT SPOT REACHING
105 SO FAR TODAY. RELIEF IS ON THE WAY THOUGH...AND ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED MILES AWAY. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DROPPING INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH ORD CURRENTLY
AT 82 DEGREES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND OVERALL LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST RESULTING IN A SLOWER DROP IN
TEMPS. REGARDLESS...THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE AROUND 70 TONIGHT IN A
MUCH FRESHER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE 80S...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT
INDICES WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
DESPITE THE HEAT WAVE THANKFULLY COMING TO AN END...THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE TO ONE CONDUCIVE FOR BRINGING THE
REGION DESPERATELY NEEDED WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS. THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT FROM AN OUTDOOR COMFORT
PERSPECTIVE...BUT NO DOUBT MOST AREA RESIDENTS WOULD TAKE A RAINY
DAY TO HELP EASE THE INCREASINGLY SEVERE DROUGHT.
THE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT HAS EXISTED MORE OR LESS SINCE THE SPRING
FOR NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE...BUT THIS WEEK THE HEAT DOME
UNDER INTENSE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A SIGNAL ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...ONCE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...IT WILL MORE OR LESS DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE VERY SLOW MOVING WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP IT LOCKED IN PLACE. THUS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE THE RULE. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST DESPITE SOME OF THE MODELS OTHER THAN
THE ECMWF HAVING OCCASIONAL SMATTERINGS OF VERY LIGHT QPF...WHICH
SEEMS QUITE UNREALISTIC IN THIS DROUGHT PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT ON
MONDAY...AS FORECAST 950 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER/NEAR SEASONAL...THEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION IS THE VERY DRY GROUND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT HEATING. SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW MOST OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT
COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY WITH LAKE
MICHIGAN NOW A GLORIFIED BATHTUB. OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME
FAIRLY COOL NIGHTS THIS WEEK DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT OVERNIGHT
WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
ALL IN ALL...A NICE...MUCH MORE BEARABLE WEEK AHEAD...BUT NO HELP
FOR THE FARMERS AND GARDENERS.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
*NNE TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT BY MID MORNING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
*NNE TO NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5-10KT DUE TO COMBINATION OF
COUPLING OF SFC AND CENTER OF SFC PRES RISES DROPPING S OF I-80.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING 15-21KT IN PLACE AT 12Z ABOVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AVAILABLE TO BE MIXED DOWN TO SFC. DURING THE DAY THE SFC RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ND-SD BORDER EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI GRADUALLY BUILDS FURTHER E OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
SLOWLY SETTLES FURTHER S OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WITH WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BY LATE TODAY WINDS
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI E
ACROSS THE LAKE TO LOWER MI IS ALONG WEAK MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
A.M. AND PREDAWN HOURS AS THE AS AN E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER SOUTHERN MI AND NORTHERN IL. SHADOW OF LOWER SFC
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LAKE WITH SCT CU FURTHER INLAND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL FCST ELEMENTS.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
330 PM CDT
THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT THROUGH THE LAKE WITH WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN THIRDS OF THE LAKE WITH BUOYS INDICATING 5 FT
WAVES ALONG THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE. AS THE CORE OF HIGHER
WINDS...UP TO 25 KT...MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE...EXPECTING WAVES TO GROW TO 6 TO 9 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO
NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE LAKE...WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE....WINDS AND
WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEAK WINDS AND WAVES.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE HEAT WAVE HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COOLER
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES SOME ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS SLOWLY APPROACHING. HI
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON SO
AGAIN JUST RAISED CHANCES FOR MORNING UP NORTH AND WILL SEE IF
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UPWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AS
TEMPS CLIMBING STEADILY AND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. DESPITE BEING IN NORTHERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR THUS FAR HAS
ONLY PENETRATED INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE NE WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED TO LOWER 60S. WITH
APPROACHING CLOUDS NEAR MUNCIE ALONG WITH STIFFER NE WIND...HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS THERE AND KOKOMO DOWN A DEGREE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED UP TO THIS POINT. AS A
RESULT...DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK. BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT...SO WENT WITH A BLEND FOR
TODAY/S HIGHS...WHICH WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 60S. WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS FRONT BRIEFLY STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...AND THESE MAY
HAVE TO BE REMOVED IF THERE ISN/T MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
COURSE OF TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH
THE LACK OF FORCING...AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BECOME LIMITED IN THE
MID-LEVELS AFTER MON 00Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY STARTING
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TRENDING A TAD COOLER THAN
THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. SO...WENT WITH
A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...DID TREND A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF MORE CLIMO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN
THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 60S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BELIEVE ALLBLEND REFLECTS THIS
WELL. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS TEND TO
INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION TOO FAST IN A DROUGHT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCLUDED SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE TSRA NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THESE TSRA TO DIMINISH OR
DISSIPATE AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET FOR ANY KIND OF MENTION.
FOR NOW HAVE TREND A BIT MORE CLOUD CLOUD COVER FOR A FEW HOURS
DUE TO RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR 081200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR SKY COVER AND P6SM EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS ISOLATED CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO
SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PLACE MFVR FOG AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENT HAS CHANGED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...BELIEVE WINDS AND A STILL VERY DRY
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY FORMATION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1224 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
HOT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
END TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT...AND MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER A DROUGHT-BUSTING SOAKER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND ALLOW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GOING FORECAST MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. DID NOT CHANGE POPS...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO TEMPERATURES. HRRR DEVELOPS NO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ONLY ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS POWERFUL UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE. DYNAMICS ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL...SO
MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS ERRATIC TO NEARLY STATIONARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS INDIANA TO OHIO AND PA. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. SOME LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT
WAS HELPING THE FRONT AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS WERE POISED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 100S TODAY. NO PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME AS WELL AS LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACCORDING TO VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HRRR FAILED TO DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE
FRONT...AND NAM HOLDS OFF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS DO BEGIN TO O SHOW LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING AFT 06Z WITH SOME LIFT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL
TO SHOW SATURATION...BUT HINT AT JUST HEATING INSTABILITY.
DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE WEAK. THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR MASS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE STARTING POINT WHERE WE HAVE TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE A WARM AIR STILL LINGERING
ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN INVERSION. FURTHERMORE TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH LOOK TO BE
CLUSTERS OF ICE CRYSTALS AND WATER VAPOR IN THE SKY...ALSO KNOWN
AS CLOUDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AND THIS MAY ACT AS AN EXTRA FORCING
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SLIM TO NONE AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO BUILD...SLOWLY BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS WILL TRY TO KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRY NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME
HEADWAY. MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND AGAIN...A BIG RAIN WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN CLOUDS...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND NE SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA. NO SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
TYPE FORECAST WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTH. GIVEN SOME EXPECTED CLOUDS IN THE AREA WILL
TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE BROAD COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST APPEARS TO FINALLY PUSH THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AS A COOLER AND DRY NE SURFACE FLOW
PERSISTS. PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK THE WAY
TO GO AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND LITTLE CAPE. THUS WE WILL EXPECT
JUST A FEW CU. WILL USE A BLEND ON TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
LATEST MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND INDICATE DRY
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE INITIALIZATION IS
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR CONTINUITY.
CONSIDERING THIS AND ALSO MODELS TEND TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION
TOO FAST IN A DROUGHT...GOING TOTALLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOO EARLY TO DISCARD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN REGIONAL MODEL
HAS SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPS...REGIONAL MODEL NOT ALL BAD BUT AS IWX POINTED OUT
PROBABLY NEEDS TO BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE DAYS CONSIDERING EFFECTS
OF DRY GROUND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 080600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR SKY COVER AND P6SM EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE LOOKS TO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...UNLESS A
STORM CAN BE TIMED AT ISSUANCE TIME. THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF LAF...IND AND HUF BY ISSUANCE TIME AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
WINDS WILL BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS ANYWAY OVERNIGHT. THEN...EXPECT THE
WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT AFTER 15Z TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE 09.12Z 250 HPA SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWED WEAK FLOW GENERALLY UNDER 50
KT EXCEPT OVER KREV ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FARTHER EAST,
125 KT JET WAS MOVING OFFSHORE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.
AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 546 DM POLAR VORTEX WAS LOCATED WELL EAST OF HUDSON
BAY ALONG WITH A FEW ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. COLD (-20 DEG C)
AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS ONTARIO IN THE WAKE OF SAID FEATURE. ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS, A 593 DM HIGH DOMINATED MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
700 HPA, SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE KDDC RAOB BURST DUE TO ICING SO THERE WAS NO 12Z KDDC SYNOPTIC FLIGHT.
DERIVED SATELLITE AMSU/SSMI PWAT SOUNDERS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 45 MM ACROSS KDDC COUNTRY. THIS IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE
IN PWAT CLIMATOLOGY. THE 850 HPA CONSTANT PRESSURE LEVEL PRETTY MUCH
ECHOED THE SAME THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS 700 HPA ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WITH A WARM BUT PARTICULARLY MOIST PROFILE. AT THE AFC, KDDC
WSR-88D INDICATING RETURNED POWER ACROSS THE REGION (I.E. WELCOMED PRECIPITATION).
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S DEG F WERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH STILL RESPECTABLE
DEWS IN THE 60S DEG F WERE OBSERVED ACROSS SW KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
THIS EVENING:
KDDC WSR-88D POWER RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED EXPONENTIALLY DURING THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. STILL, THERE IS NO REASON TO BE CONSERVATIVE ON POPS
FOR THIS EVENING AS WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS (SEE
SYNOPSIS). MESOSCALE MODELS (HRRR/NAM) INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AGAIN (500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH A MOIST
ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE). TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S DEG F.
TOMORROW:
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
PER NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WITH A CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE NAM
INDICATING 700 HPA OMEGA, I HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT POPS IN THE GRIDS
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ARW CORE AND GFS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRIER AND MIXED ATMOSPHERE,
TOMORROWS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER UNLESS THE MODELS ARE UNDOING CLOUD
COVER. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S DEG F FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
MEANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT, SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE CREXTENDED PROCEDURE PLACED 20
PERCENT POPS IN MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
MIGRATED THE 20 PERCENT POPS EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE SUNDAY NIGHT POPS
LOOK STRANGE, WITH 30 TO 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WITH 20 POPS ALSO IN THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES. FOR MONDAY, THERE COULD WELL BE A FRONT DANGLING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, AND 20 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LOW, AS THE EXACT AREA WHERE ANY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WILL BE
HARD TO PIN POINT THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
SINCE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PARKED WEST OF US
(INSTEAD OF OVERHEAD), THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, DO NOT THINK HIGHS
WILL REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENTLY AND
PLAN NO CHANGES AT THE MOMENT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE 3 TO 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, WITH THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS
MEDICINE LODGE, PRATT AND COLDWATER.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH DIRECTION AND AT 10 TO
20 MPH DURING THE DAY, AND SETTLING TO 10 MPH OR LESS AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A LEE SIDE TROUGH FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO NEARLY
EVERY AFTERNOON, AND THEN RECEDE TO THE WEST DURING EACH EVENING.
THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE WIND SPEEDS AND TIMING
OF BOTH DAY TIME WINDS INCREASING AND EVENING WINDS DECREASING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
18Z NAM AND LATEST RAP INDICATING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LINGER NEAR AND SOUTH OF DDC AND GCK EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN THIS AREA LOW VFR OR MARGINAL MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS KANSAS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN
A PREVAILING GROUP. AS FOR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVAILING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND 10KTS OR LESS. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 3-5SM BR AT DDC AND
GCK AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 89 68 90 / 40 20 20 10
GCK 63 87 68 89 / 40 20 20 10
EHA 64 84 62 89 / 60 20 10 10
LBL 66 87 66 90 / 60 20 20 10
HYS 64 90 68 91 / 20 10 10 0
P28 69 92 71 93 / 40 20 20 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FALLS CITY TO SOUTH OF CONCORDIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LAY FROM OSKALOOSA THROUGH
TOPEKA AND HERINGTON. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA SAVE THE NORTHWEST CORNER. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CONVERGENCE FROM DODGE CITY
NORTHEAST TO NEAR TOPEKA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SURFACE BASED CAPE RUNNING IN
THE 1500 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOW INVERTED V SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY TOUCH
OFF SOME MORE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. ALSO COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS OF
HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WILL ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 FOR POOLING OF DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S WHICH IF IT OCCURS COULD PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND
100 DEGREES.
53
POST FRONTAL AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 850 MB WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE MAINLY SITUATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING SUNDAY MOST AREAS AND WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES) WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK WAVE AS UPPER FLOW
TRIES TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EVENING AND SOUTH OF
I-70...THEN CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST ON MONDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF THE
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT ALSO INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AS EASTERLY LLVL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND HEIGHT RISES INCREASE...SHOULD SEE
TEMPS START TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BACK
INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.
63
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
30 MILES WEST OF KMHK...WILL MOVE WEST AWAY FROM THE TAF KMHK TAF SITE.
I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
THE TAF SITES BUT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. ONCE FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KTS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING FUELED BY COLD POOLS
GENERATED BY OUTFLOW/COLLAPSING STORMS. SO EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST FOR A LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THEY OUTRUN THE
OUTFLOWS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR THE KICT/KSLN AND KHUT TAFS WITH
CONVECTION IN THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL 09Z.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM KTOP TO NEAR KGBD. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO SRN KS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH EARLY ON
SUN. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS ON
SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS AS HIGHER INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
THE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CEN AND SE KS. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO WANE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...AS HEATING COMES TO END. EXPECT
THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT ALL THE CONVECTION WILL
END OVER SERN KS AS A WEAK IMPULSE DRIFTS OVER SW MO. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER OVER CEN KS LATE THIS EVENING AS
WELL...AS THIS AREA IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
IS OOZING SOUTH INTO SRN KS. SO WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CEN KS AND
SOUTHEAST KS.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
HIT OR MISS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A VCTS
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO SEND OUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY CREATE VARIABLE OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS IN AROUND
THE COLLAPSING STORMS. MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND THE KHUT/KRSL TAF
SITES. COULD ALSO SEE A SOUTH MOVING OUTFLOW MAKE IT INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF ICT AS WELL. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING AFTER
02-03Z.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM KTOP TO NEAR KGBD. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO SRN KS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH EARLY ON
SUN. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS ON
SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS AS HIGHER INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
MODEL CONVECTION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SYNOPTIC MASS
FIELDS TO SUBJECTIVELY DETERMINE HIGHER POP AREAS PER 12Z MODEL
RUNS. HOWEVER IN VERY SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT
HANDLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR. 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN THE BALLPARK.
ADJUSTED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 1200 UTC RAOBS SUGGEST LESS
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...WITH ROUGHLY A 1000 J/KILOGRAM
CAPE AND NOT A LOT OF CIN. LEAD WIND SHIFT PUSHED THROUGH KHUT BY
MIDDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST INTO KRSL. WITH WEAK/
DISORGANIZED FLOW...EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. COULD
EASILY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FESTER
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE KS.
SUN-MON:
WITH PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES AND DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HARD
PRESSED TO PIN DOWN HIGHER CHANCES/AREAS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
SOME HINTS IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ROLL OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLIP FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK
MON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION AND GFS/ECMWF
MUCH LESS. APPEARS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK DURING
THE NIGHT AND ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST MAY BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
COLD POOL. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ON MON MORNING IN FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER BOTH
DAYS LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
LATEST MODELS SHOW FRONT HANGING UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ALONG OK BORDER THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP STATUS QUO AND LET MIDSHIFT REEVALUATE.
WED-SAT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER FLOW.
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES...
LEAVING FORECAST AREA NORTHWEST-NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND LOCATED
BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMALS. IN ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OR SIGNIFICANT INFLUX
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 94 73 90 / 20 30 30 20
HUTCHINSON 75 93 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
NEWTON 75 93 72 91 / 20 30 30 10
ELDORADO 74 94 72 91 / 30 30 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 96 76 90 / 30 30 30 20
RUSSELL 72 91 69 88 / 40 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 72 92 69 87 / 40 40 40 30
SALINA 76 91 73 90 / 40 30 30 10
MCPHERSON 74 92 70 91 / 30 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 77 93 74 89 / 30 30 30 20
CHANUTE 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
IOLA 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
TSTMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST
POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL DO NOT WANT
TO GET TOO AMBITIOUS WITH PULLING POPS AROUND THE KY/TN LINE NOW THAT
INITIATION IS UNDER WAY. SPC IS CONSIDERING A WATCH AND AT THIS
POINT FEEL THAT ONE WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STAY
TUNED...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASING WITH TEMPS IN THE PROCESS OF REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE MID 80S. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OVER THE BLUEGRASS APPEARS
TO BE RUNNING OUT OF GAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT DO NOT WANT TO GET
TOO CARRIED AWAY JUST YET. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH
INITIATION TODAY AND NOT SURPRISINGLY AS THEY GENERALLY DO NOT HANDLE
CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL. 12Z NAM WOULD IMPLY BACKING OFF POPS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE 11Z HRRR IS EVEN LEANER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE 09Z SREF LOOKS BETTER FOR PRECIP AFTER 21Z
AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE 13Z RUC...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE IDEA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH
LIKELY POPS STILL RESERVED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE NEAR TERM POPS...SKY AND T/TD
TRENDS. UPDATES SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY SO LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WANING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
SOME FRONTOGENESIS. OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. CURRENT
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE WITH A INCREASINGLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND A CAP OVERHEAD. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST COMES
THIS MORNING AS WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND HIGH INTO WESTERN KY AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO NORTHERN KY. THIS ALONG WITH APPROACHING
SUPPORT FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...TO INITIATE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL THOUGHTS
HAVE MAY HAVE SUGGESTED THIS TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXPECTED SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SO
TRIED TEMPER THE HIGHS IN THE NORTH INTO THE LOW 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A JET
MAX JUST SKIRTING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND DECENT
FORCING WITH THE FRONT DIVING SOUTH...THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY MAY MAKE
NO DIFFERENCE IN LESSENING A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS DEWS TOPPING OUT AROUND 70 AND ABOVE NORMAL 90 DEGREE HEAT COUPLED
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THE PUSH SOUTH...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND THE GFS AGREE WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BY THIS TIME...THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH CONVECTION RE INTENSIFYING WITH
THE AFTERNOON HEAT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED MONITORED FOR HYDRO
ISSUES EVEN THOUGH LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN A DROUGHT. ALSO...THE
CHANGE IN AIR MASSES WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A VERY BEARABLE
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALOFT THAT THE RIDGE PROVIDING OUR
HEATWAVE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS FINALLY MET ITS MATCH. A
LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PLACE EAST
KENTUCKY BENEATH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
SWEEPING PAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THAT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT HEIGHTS WILL NOT RISE MUCH IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND A WEAK LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION
IN A LOW MID LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH A BERMUDA HIGH TYPE OF RIDGE IS BEING HINTED AT IN
THE MODELS FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT ALOFT...AND MINOR SHORTWAVES INVOLVED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A HEALTHY DIURNAL
COMPONENT AS THE INFLUENCES OF THE SFC FEATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WANES WITH TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE. FOR STARTERS THE HEAT OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL BE GONE
AS A DIFFERENT AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST MOVES INTO EAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF. SECONDLY...THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO...BUT APPARENTLY
NOT THROUGH...THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
VALLEY. DESPITE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING PAST NORTH OF IT...THE
STRIATION BETWEEN THE LOWER POPS NORTH AND HIGHER ONES SOUTH WILL BE
A CONSTANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO
PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN TIMING OF OUR BEST CONVECTION CHANCES. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH VIA ITS BROAD
CIRCULATION. THAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES AND COULD
GIVE THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ANOTHER SURGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY COULD START TO SERIOUSLY LESSEN...AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN TIER...BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE...IF ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR POPS
GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE FRONT
WILL END UP. ACCORDINGLY...MADE THE MOST CHANGES TO POPS AND BEEFED
UP THE DIURNAL FACTOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE TERRAIN WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE WELCOMED
MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KY
AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS OF ERN KY BY 20-21Z.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO IFR
OR WORSE IN AND AROUND ANY OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY STORMS THROUGH 12Z WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB/GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASING WITH TEMPS IN THE PROCESS OF REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE MID 80S. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OVER THE BLUEGRASS APPEARS
TO BE RUNNING OUT OF GAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT DO NOT WANT TO GET
TOO CARRIED AWAY JUST YET. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH
INITIATION TODAY AND NOT SURPRISINGLY AS THEY GENERALLY DO NOT HANDLE
CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL. 12Z NAM WOULD IMPLY BACKING OFF POPS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE 11Z HRRR IS EVEN LEANER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE 09Z SREF LOOKS BETTER FOR PRECIP AFTER 21Z
AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE 13Z RUC...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE IDEA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH
LIKELY POPS STILL RESERVED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE NEAR TERM POPS...SKY AND T/TD
TRENDS. UPDATES SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY SO LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WANING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
SOME FRONTOGENESIS. OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. CURRENT
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE WITH A INCREASINGLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND A CAP OVERHEAD. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST COMES
THIS MORNING AS WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND HIGH INTO WESTERN KY AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO NORTHERN KY. THIS ALONG WITH APPROACHING
SUPPORT FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...TO INITIATE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL THOUGHTS
HAVE MAY HAVE SUGGESTED THIS TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXPECTED SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SO
TRIED TEMPER THE HIGHS IN THE NORTH INTO THE LOW 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A JET
MAX JUST SKIRTING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND DECENT
FORCING WITH THE FRONT DIVING SOUTH...THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY MAY MAKE
NO DIFFERENCE IN LESSENING A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS DEWS TOPPING OUT AROUND 70 AND ABOVE NORMAL 90 DEGREE HEAT COUPLED
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THE PUSH SOUTH...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND THE GFS AGREE WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BY THIS TIME...THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH CONVECTION RE INTENSIFYING WITH
THE AFTERNOON HEAT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED MONITORED FOR HYDRO
ISSUES EVEN THOUGH LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN A DROUGHT. ALSO...THE
CHANGE IN AIR MASSES WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A VERY BEARABLE
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALOFT THAT THE RIDGE PROVIDING OUR
HEATWAVE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS FINALLY MET ITS MATCH. A
LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PLACE EAST
KENTUCKY BENEATH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
SWEEPING PAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THAT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT HEIGHTS WILL NOT RISE MUCH IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND A WEAK LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION
IN A LOW MID LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH A BERMUDA HIGH TYPE OF RIDGE IS BEING HINTED AT IN
THE MODELS FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT ALOFT...AND MINOR SHORTWAVES INVOLVED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A HEALTHY DIURNAL
COMPONENT AS THE INFLUENCES OF THE SFC FEATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WANES WITH TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE. FOR STARTERS THE HEAT OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL BE GONE
AS A DIFFERENT AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST MOVES INTO EAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF. SECONDLY...THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO...BUT APPARENTLY
NOT THROUGH...THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
VALLEY. DESPITE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING PAST NORTH OF IT...THE
STRIATION BETWEEN THE LOWER POPS NORTH AND HIGHER ONES SOUTH WILL BE
A CONSTANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO
PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN TIMING OF OUR BEST CONVECTION CHANCES. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH VIA ITS BROAD
CIRCULATION. THAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES AND COULD
GIVE THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ANOTHER SURGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY COULD START TO SERIOUSLY LESSEN...AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN TIER...BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE...IF ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR POPS
GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE FRONT
WILL END UP. ACCORDINGLY...MADE THE MOST CHANGES TO POPS AND BEEFED
UP THE DIURNAL FACTOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE TERRAIN WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE WELCOMED
MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIKELY CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AT THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z WITH
WHAT SHOULD BE A WELL MOISTENED BL FOG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
100 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADUALLY WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
0900AM UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP TO H600 TO CREATE A
FEW SPRINKLES. NAM...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO
VARYING DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF HOULTON WITH
ABUNDANT H850 MOISTURE...BUT MIXING SHOULD STILL ALLOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
UPDATE...655 AM CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRISK FLOW NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS LOW PRES REMAINS NRLY
STATIONARY WELL NNE OF THE REGION... THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
PLEASANT WX PTRN FOR THE AREA W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES THRU THE PD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BRISK...SPCLY MON W/
GUST OF 25-30 MPH PSBL ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN AREAS THEN WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON TUE. NO MAJOR CONCERNS THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL SUMMER PTRN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR THE
EXTENDED PD... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MID WEEK
THEN SAGS TO THE S...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS BY TO THE N. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MAY ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO SLIP INTO NRN AREAS FRI NGT OR SAT. GENERALLY EXPECT A
TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS W/ TIME W/ JUST A FEW
ISOLD MAINLY AFTN RW/TRW PSBL ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS...
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS EXPECTED...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS MON THROUGH
TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
859 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADUALLY WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900AM UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP TO H600 TO CREATE A
FEW SPRINKLES. NAM...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO
VARYING DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF HOULTON WITH
ABUNDANT H850 MOISTURE...BUT MIXING SHOULD STILL ALLOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
UPDATE...655 AM CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRISK FLOW NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS LOW PRES REMAINS NRLY
STATIONARY WELL NNE OF THE REGION... THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
PLEASANT WX PTRN FOR THE AREA W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES THRU THE PD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BRISK...SPCLY MON W/
GUST OF 25-30 MPH PSBL ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN AREAS THEN WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON TUE. NO MAJOR CONCERNS THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL SUMMER PTRN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR THE
EXTENDED PD... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MID WEEK
THEN SAGS TO THE S...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS BY TO THE N. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MAY ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO SLIP INTO NRN AREAS FRI NGT OR SAT. GENERALLY EXPECT A
TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS W/ TIME W/ JUST A FEW
ISOLD MAINLY AFTN RW/TRW PSBL ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS...
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS EXPECTED...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS MON THROUGH
TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ZFP UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WW 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED JUST
NORTH OF FENWICK IS...STRETCHING BACK JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE BACK INTO SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KY. PRE-FRONTAL CU HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS NOW POPPING UP ALONG
THE FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS BLUE RIDGE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE CHC FOR PRECIP WILL SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
MAIN FRONT NEARS THE REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTN/EVE AS RUC AND NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 2" BY 00Z/MON. THE FRONT STALLS AS IT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. AS OF 12Z MONDAY, WEAKENING
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM VA CAPES, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH.
MONDAY...
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT ON
MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN QUEBEC
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ALONG FRINGE OF BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, WITH A GOOD CHC OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL, THOUGH WILL
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID. MAXIMA GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME HUNG UP FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL AREA SET UP IN THE RRQ OF
40-60 KT UPPER JET, WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING VERTICAL
COLUMN RELATIVELY SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS. AT THE SFC,
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND BECOME LITTLE MORE
THAN A BAGGY WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CRITICAL IN ORIENTING AREA OF HIGHEST RAIN CHCS, AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH TUE/WED. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS. IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED BY GFS, WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON, NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
WOULD MISS OUT ON MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL. FOR NOW, INHERITED
HIGH END CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IS VERY REASONABLE, AND WILL BE GENERALLY ADHERED TO AS
IS, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER CHCS/AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FROM HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK CONTINUES. MODELS AND
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING MAXIMA RIGHT
AROUND 1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S). EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MID-
UPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM
A CUTOFF SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP
A FAIRLY MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND
CAROLINAS...AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACRS THE CAROLINAS (ECMWF) OR
FAR SE VA (GFS). FOR NOW...FCST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE DRIER ECMWF (AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER
OUR NC ZONES ON SOUTH) AND WETTER GFS FOR THE WED NIGHT-THU
TIMEFRAME. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS NORTH...TO 40-50% POPS IN
NC...MAINLY WED EVENING AND AGAIN THU AFTN. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE BELOW AVG...MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU NIGHT-SAT...WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC STATES. THIS
WILL ACT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA ON
FRI...WITH SSW FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR THE MID ATLC GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS HIGHER
POPS/40% ON FRI OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH ONLY 20% IN SE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MID LEVEL HGTS RISE. HIGHS IN THE 80S CONTINUE. SLOW
WARMING TREND TO NEAR CLIMO READINGS FOR HIGHS TEMPS SAT-SUN AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN (HIGHS UPR 80S TO NEAR 90). WILL CARRY ONLY
DIURNAL/AFTN-EVENING CHC FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS 20% POPS EAST
OF I-95/30% WEST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FOR TONIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR SURGE IS WEAK W/
THE FRONT...SO WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME CHAOTIC AT TIMES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL EFFECTS FROM TSTMS.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL AVG OUT NE IN DIRECTION OVER NRN 1/2 OF THE
WATERS...WITH SW OR S FLOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO N/NE BY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT/MON MORNING FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LACK
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FCST WILL KEEP
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CAPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY DESPITE NE
FLOW...WAVES AVG OUT AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS 3-4 FT
NORTH...2-3 FT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL.
MODELS GENLY AGREE AT STALLING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN NC FOR SEVERAL DAYS/MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DUE TO WEAK
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
FCST WILL SHOW WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS DUE TO
MODEL TENDENCY OF UNDER-FORECASTING WINDS IN E/NE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE ALREADY ESTABLISHED AT RIC
(103)...ORF (101) AND SBY (100). JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD AT
ECG...WITH NEW DAILY RECORD MAX T POSSIBLE W/SEVERAL HRS OF
HEATING TO GO.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY/JULY 8TH:
RIC HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 103...OLD RECORD/102 (1993)
ORF HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 101...OLD RECORD/100 (1993)
SBY HAS TIED THE RECORD WITH 100.....RECORD IS 100 (1993)
ECG HAS SO FAR REACHED 100............RECORD IS 101 (1987)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ZFP UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WW 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED JUST
NORTH OF FENWICK IS...STRETCHING BACK JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE BACK INTO SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KY. PRE-FRONTAL CU HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS NOW POPPING UP ALONG
THE FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS BLUE RIDGE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE CHC FOR PRECIP WILL SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
MAIN FRONT NEARS THE REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTN/EVE AS RUC AND NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 2" BY 00Z/MON. THE FRONT STALLS AS IT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. AS OF 12Z MONDAY, WEAKENING
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM VA CAPES, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH.
MONDAY...
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT ON
MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN QUEBEC
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ALONG FRINGE OF BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, WITH A GOOD CHC OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL, THOUGH WILL
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID. MAXIMA GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME HUNG UP FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL AREA SET UP IN THE RRQ OF
40-60 KT UPPER JET, WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING VERTICAL
COLUMN RELATIVELY SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS. AT THE SFC,
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND BECOME LITTLE MORE
THAN A BAGGY WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CRITICAL IN ORIENTING AREA OF HIGHEST RAIN CHCS, AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH TUE/WED. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS. IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED BY GFS, WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON, NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
WOULD MISS OUT ON MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL. FOR NOW, INHERITED
HIGH END CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IS VERY REASONABLE, AND WILL BE GENERALLY ADHERED TO AS
IS, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER CHCS/AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FROM HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK CONTINUES. MODELS AND
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING MAXIMA RIGHT
AROUND 1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S). EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MID-
UPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM
A CUTOFF SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP
A FAIRLY MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND
CAROLINAS...AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACRS THE CAROLINAS (ECMWF) OR
FAR SE VA (GFS). FOR NOW...FCST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE DRIER ECMWF (AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER
OUR NC ZONES ON SOUTH) AND WETTER GFS FOR THE WED NIGHT-THU
TIMEFRAME. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS NORTH...TO 40-50% POPS IN
NC...MAINLY WED EVENING AND AGAIN THU AFTN. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE BELOW AVG...MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU NIGHT-SAT...WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC STATES. THIS
WILL ACT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA ON
FRI...WITH SSW FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR THE MID ATLC GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS HIGHER
POPS/40% ON FRI OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH ONLY 20% IN SE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MID LEVEL HGTS RISE. HIGHS IN THE 80S CONTINUE. SLOW
WARMING TREND TO NEAR CLIMO READINGS FOR HIGHS TEMPS SAT-SUN AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN (HIGHS UPR 80S TO NEAR 90). WILL CARRY ONLY
DIURNAL/AFTN-EVENING CHC FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS 20% POPS EAST
OF I-95/30% WEST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FOR TONIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR SURGE IS WEAK W/
THE FRONT...SO WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME CHAOTIC AT TIMES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL EFFECTS FROM TSTMS.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL AVG OUT NE IN DIRECTION OVER NRN 1/2 OF THE
WATERS...WITH SW OR S FLOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO N/NE BY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT/MON MORNING FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LACK
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FCST WILL KEEP
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CAPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY DESPITE NE
FLOW...WAVES AVG OUT AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS 3-4 FT
NORTH...2-3 FT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL.
MODELS GENLY AGREE AT STALLING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN NC FOR SEVERAL DAYS/MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DUE TO WEAK
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
FCST WILL SHOW WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS DUE TO
MODEL TENDENCY OF UNDER-FORECASTING WINDS IN E/NE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE ALREADY ESTABLISHED AT RIC (103) AND
SBY (100). JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD AT ORF AND ECG...WITH NEW
DAILY RECORD MAX T POSSIBLE W/SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING TO GO.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY/JULY 8TH:
RIC HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 103...OLD RECORD/102 (1993)
ORF HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 101...OLD RECORD/100 (1993)
SBY HAS TIED THE RECORD WITH 100.....RECORD IS 100 (1993)
ECG HAS SO FAR REACHED 99............RECORD IS 101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ZFP UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WW 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED JUST
NORTH OF FENWICK IS...STRETCHING BACK JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE BACK INTO SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KY. PRE-FRONTAL CU HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS NOW POPPING UP ALONG
THE FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS BLUE RIDGE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE CHC FOR PRECIP WILL SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
MAIN FRONT NEARS THE REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTN/EVE AS RUC AND NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 2" BY 00Z/MON. THE FRONT STALLS AS IT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. AS OF 12Z MONDAY, WEAKENING
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM VA CAPES, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH.
MONDAY...
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT ON
MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN QUEBEC
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ALONG FRINGE OF BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, WITH A GOOD CHC OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL, THOUGH WILL
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID. MAXIMA GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME HUNG UP FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL AREA SET UP IN THE RRQ OF
40-60 KT UPPER JET, WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING VERTICAL
COLUMN RELATIVELY SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS. AT THE SFC,
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND BECOME LITTLE MORE
THAN A BAGGY WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CRITICAL IN ORIENTING AREA OF HIGHEST RAIN CHCS, AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH TUE/WED. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS. IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED BY GFS, WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON, NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
WOULD MISS OUT ON MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL. FOR NOW, INHERITED
HIGH END CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IS VERY REASONABLE, AND WILL BE GENERALLY ADHERED TO AS
IS, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER CHCS/AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FROM HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK CONTINUES. MODELS AND
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING MAXIMA RIGHT
AROUND 1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S). EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FOR TONIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR SURGE IS WEAK W/
THE FRONT...SO WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME CHAOTIC AT TIMES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL EFFECTS FROM TSTMS.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL AVG OUT NE IN DIRECTION OVER NRN 1/2 OF THE
WATERS...WITH SW OR S FLOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO N/NE BY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT/MON MORNING FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LACK
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FCST WILL KEEP
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CAPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY DESPITE NE
FLOW...WAVES AVG OUT AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS 3-4 FT
NORTH...2-3 FT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL.
MODELS GENLY AGREE AT STALLING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN NC FOR SEVERAL DAYS/MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DUE TO WEAK
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
FCST WILL SHOW WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS DUE TO
MODEL TENDENCY OF UNDERFORECASTING WINDS IN E/NE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE ALREADY ESTABLISHED AT RIC (103) AND
SBY (100). JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD AT ORF AND ECG...WITH NEW
DAILY RECORD MAX T POSSIBLE W/SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING TO GO.
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 103/102 (1993)
ORF 100/100 (1993)
SBY 101/100 (1993)
ECG 101/101 (1987)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS OFFLINE DUE TO AN UNSPECIFIED COMMS LINK ERROR.
TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL BE DISPATCHED AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. UPDATES WILL BE PASSED ALONG AS THEY`RE AVAILABLE
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVERYWHERE XCPT ALLEGANY CO HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A SVR TSTM WTCH
UNTIL 10 PM.
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES OVR 90 AT 9AM - THIS IS MUCH MORE
REMINISCENT OF MY LONG AGO DAYS IN THE DESERT SW THAN THE MID
ATLC. HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE ALONG AND S OF
THE PTMC. BUT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY - 11Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT STRETCHNG ACROSS SRN NJ ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN BACK TO
CENTRAL MO. HIGH PRES OVR NRN MN HV DROPPED TEMPS BACK INTO THE
60S IN THE UPR MIDWEST. IN FURTHER GOOD NEWS...WHILE OUR HOURLY
ROUNDUP HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF GRTR THAN 90 AT VIRTUALLY ALL OB
SITES...THE PHL OFFICE`S HRLY ROUNDUP ONLY HAS 90+ HEAT INDICES IN
THE SRN PART OF THEIR AREA. HENCE SLTLY MORE COMFORTABLE AIR IS COMING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA RMNS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS..W/ WIND/HAIL BEING THE THREATS. W/ THE FNT ENTERING NRN MD
IN THE MRNG THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR TEMPERING THE SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. ATTM THE RGNL RDR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES...AND HRRR DEPICTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
BUT W/ THE ATMOSPHERE AS JUICED AS IT IS - 12Z IAD SNDG HAS OVR
4600 J/KG...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD EXPLODE QUICKLY. LWR SRN
MD/CENTRAL SHEN VLLY COULD BE THE PRIME SPOTS EARLY THIS AFTN.
TNGT...CDFNT SHUD CONT SLOW SWD PROGRESSION...MOVING INTO CNTRL
THEN SRN VA BY 6Z. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONT OVNGT...ALTHOUGH SVR
RISK DECREASES WITH TIME. MINIMA WILL BE REGULATED BY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...SO MOST AREAS WILL HOLD AOA 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END SCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS MOST LOCALES...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...EACH SERVING TO FOCUS PRECIP. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...HELPING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SVR TSTM WTCH IS IN EFFECT AT ALL TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DVLP AND MOVE WWD ACRS MID-ATLC AS CD FNT
SAGS SWD. SVR STORMS PSBL...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS. IN ANY
TSTM...BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE XPCD. SCATTERED ACTVITY CUD CONT TNGT...BUT PROBS LESS THAN
LIKELY. NLY FLOW PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD EARLY ON MONDAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCHO
TERMINAL SITE.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SVR TSTM WTCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL BCM NLY THIS MRNG. SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE NEAR
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...AND PSBLY CONT OVNGT. STRONG WINDS PSBL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS TNGT BEHIND
CDFNT...BUT LIKELY BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY...JULY 7...AT DCA
AND BWI...AND TIED AT IAD.
AT DCA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 105 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 102 IN 2010. THIS TEMPERATURE TIES
THE SECOND WARMEST TEMEPRATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE
ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURE WAS OBSERVED 20 JULY 1930 AND 6 AUGUST
1918...WHEN 106 DEGREES WAS REALIZED.
DCA HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82...WHICH BREAKS THE HIGH DAILY
MINIMUM RECORD OR 80F...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. IN ADDITION...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST ALL-TIME AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE OLD RECORD WAS 93
DEGREES...SET ON 22 AND 23 JULY 2011...AND 6 JULY 1999.
AT BWI...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 104 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 101 IN 2010.
AT IAD...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 101 DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE DAILY
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1988 AND 2010. THE MIN
TEMPERATURE WAS 75 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD HIGH DAILY MINIMUM OF
73 DEGREES SET IN 2010.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY AGAIN BE APPROACHED TODAY...BELOW ARE THE
DETAILS...
DAILY MAXIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 100 1993 97F
BWI SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
IAD SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
DAILY MINIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 80 2010 83F
BWI SUN JUL 8 79 1986 79F
IAD SUN JUL 8 78 2010 78F
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ009-011-013-
014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>039-
050>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUSR ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 102/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JO
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPC HAS STATED THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT MUCH OF THE CWA
WL BE PLACED IN A SVR TSTM WTCH. WE ARE LAUNCHING AN 18Z BALLOON IN
SUPPORT OF THAT.
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES OVR 90 AT 9AM - THIS IS MUCH MORE
REMINISCENT OF MY LONG AGO DAYS IN THE DESERT SW THAN THE MID
ATLC. HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE ALONG AND S OF
THE PTMC. BUT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY - 11Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT STRETCHNG ACROSS SRN NJ ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN BACK TO
CENTRAL MO. HIGH PRES OVR NRN MN HV DROPPED TEMPS BACK INTO THE
60S IN THE UPR MIDWEST. IN FURTHER GOOD NEWS...WHILE OUR HOURLY
ROUNDUP HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF GRTR THAN 90 AT VIRTUALLY ALL OB
SITES...THE PHL OFFICE`S HRLY ROUNDUP ONLY HAS 90+ HEAT INDICES IN
THE SRN PART OF THEIR AREA. HENCE SLTLY MORE COMFORTABLE AIR IS COMING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA RMNS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS..W/ WIND/HAIL BEING THE THREATS. W/ THE FNT ENTERING NRN MD
IN THE MRNG THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR TEMPERING THE SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. ATTM THE RGNL RDR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES...AND HRRR DEPICTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
BUT W/ THE ATMOSPHERE AS JUICED AS IT IS - 12Z IAD SNDG HAS OVR
4600 J/KG...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD EXPLODE QUICKLY. LWR SRN
MD/CENTRAL SHEN VLLY COULD BE THE PRIME SPOTS EARLY THIS AFTN.
TNGT...CDFNT SHUD CONT SLOW SWD PROGRESSION...MOVING INTO CNTRL
THEN SRN VA BY 6Z. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONT OVNGT...ALTHOUGH SVR
RISK DECREASES WITH TIME. MINIMA WILL BE REGULATED BY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...SO MOST AREAS WILL HOLD AOA 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END SCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS MOST LOCALES...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...EACH SERVING TO FOCUS PRECIP. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...HELPING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DVLP AND MOVE WWD ACRS MID-ATLC AS CD FNT
SAGS SWD. SVR STORMS PSBL...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS. IN ANY
TSTM...BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE XPCD. SCATTERED ACTVITY CUD CONT TNGT...BUT PROBS LESS THAN
LIKELY. NLY FLOW PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD EARLY ON MONDAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCHO
TERMINAL SITE.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BCM NLY THIS MRNG. SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE NEAR
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...AND PSBLY CONT OVNGT. STRONG WINDS PSBL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS TNGT BEHIND
CDFNT...BUT LIKELY BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY...JULY 7...AT DCA
AND BWI...AND TIED AT IAD.
AT DCA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 105 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 102 IN 2010. THIS TEMPERATURE TIES
THE SECOND WARMEST TEMEPRATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE
ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURE WAS OBSERVED 20 JULY 1930 AND 6 AUGUST
1918...WHEN 106 DEGREES WAS REALIZED.
DCA HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82...WHICH BREAKS THE HIGH DAILY
MINIMUM RECORD OR 80F...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. IN ADDITION...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST ALL-TIME AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE OLD RECORD WAS 93
DEGREES...SET ON 22 AND 23 JULY 2011...AND 6 JULY 1999.
AT BWI...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 104 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 101 IN 2010.
AT IAD...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 101 DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE DAILY
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1988 AND 2010. THE MIN
TEMPERATURE WAS 75 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD HIGH DAILY MINIMUM OF
73 DEGREES SET IN 2010.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY AGAIN BE APPROACHED TODAY...BELOW ARE THE
DETAILS...
DAILY MAXIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 100 1993 97F
BWI SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
IAD SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
DAILY MINIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 80 2010 83F
BWI SUN JUL 8 79 1986 79F
IAD SUN JUL 8 78 2010 78F
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ009-011-013-
014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>039-
050>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...SBK/NWL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/...
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES OVR 90 AT 9AM - THIS IS MUCH MORE
REMINISCENT OF MY LONG AGO DAYS IN THE DESERT SW THAN THE MID
ATLC. HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE ALONG AND S OF
THE PTMC. BUT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY - 11Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT STRETCHNG ACROSS SRN NJ ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN BACK TO
CENTRAL MO. HIGH PRES OVR NRN MN HV DROPPED TEMPS BACK INTO THE
60S IN THE UPR MIDWEST. IN FURTHER GOOD NEWS...WHILE OUR HOURLY
ROUNDUP HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF GRTR THAN 90 AT VIRTUALLY ALL OB
SITES...THE PHL OFFICE`S HRLY ROUNDUP ONLY HAS 90+ HEAT INDICES IN
THE SRN PART OF THEIR AREA. HENCE SLTLY MORE COMFORTABLE AIR IS COMING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA RMNS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS..W/ WIND/HAIL BEING THE THREATS. W/ THE FNT ENTERING NRN MD
IN THE MRNG THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR TEMPERING THE SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. ATTM THE RGNL RDR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES...AND HRRR DEPICTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
BUT W/ THE ATMOSPHERE AS JUICED AS IT IS - 12Z IAD SNDG HAS OVR
4600 J/KG...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD EXPLODE QUICKLY. LWR SRN
MD/CENTRAL SHEN VLLY COULD BE THE PRIME SPOTS EARLY THIS AFTN.
TNGT...CDFNT SHUD CONT SLOW SWD PROGRESSION...MOVING INTO CNTRL
THEN SRN VA BY 6Z. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONT OVNGT...ALTHOUGH SVR
RISK DECREASES WITH TIME. MINIMA WILL BE REGULATED BY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...SO MOST AREAS WILL HOLD AOA 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END SCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS MOST LOCALES...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...EACH SERVING TO FOCUS PRECIP. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...HELPING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DVLP AND MOVE WWD ACRS MID-ATLC AS CD FNT
SAGS SWD. SVR STORMS PSBL...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS. IN ANY
TSTM...BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE XPCD. SCATTERED ACTVITY CUD CONT TNGT...BUT PROBS LESS THAN
LIKELY. NLY FLOW PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD EARLY ON MONDAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCHO
TERMINAL SITE.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BCM NLY THIS MRNG. SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE NEAR
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...AND PSBLY CONT OVNGT. STRONG WINDS PSBL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS TNGT BEHIND
CDFNT...BUT LIKELY BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY...JULY 7...AT DCA
AND BWI...AND TIED AT IAD.
AT DCA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 105 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 102 IN 2010. THIS TEMPERATURE TIES
THE SECOND WARMEST TEMEPRATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE
ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURE WAS OBSERVED 20 JULY 1930 AND 6 AUGUST
1918...WHEN 106 DEGREES WAS REALIZED.
DCA HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82...WHICH BREAKS THE HIGH DAILY
MINIMUM RECORD OR 80F...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. IN ADDITION...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST ALL-TIME AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE OLD RECORD WAS 93
DEGREES...SET ON 22 AND 23 JULY 2011...AND 6 JULY 1999.
AT BWI...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 104 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 101 IN 2010.
AT IAD...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 101 DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE DAILY
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1988 AND 2010. THE MIN
TEMPERATURE WAS 75 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD HIGH DAILY MINIMUM OF
73 DEGREES SET IN 2010.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY AGAIN BE APPROACHED TODAY...BELOW ARE THE
DETAILS...
DAILY MAXIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 100 1993 97F
BWI SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
IAD SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
DAILY MINIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 80 2010 83F
BWI SUN JUL 8 79 1986 79F
IAD SUN JUL 8 78 2010 78F
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ009-011-013-
014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>039-
050>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...SBK/NWL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
716 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. TSTMS WILL
BE PSBL LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NE (EXCEPT AT ECG)
BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN VEER TO E/SE TOWARD EVENING.
WINDS AT ECG WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT
RIC/SBY. THIS WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED WITH LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 102/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEPT TAFS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ALL THE TAF SITES
WERE EXPERIENCING A STEADY WIND AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREDIBLY WARM FOR THE TIME OF DAY WITH
A READING OF 90 AT SBY AT 05Z.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY THEN VEER
TO EASTERLY TOWARD EVENING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 102/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEPT TAFS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ALL THE TAF SITES
WERE EXPERIENCING A STEADY WIND AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREDIBLY WARM FOR THE TIME OF DAY WITH
A READING OF 90 AT SBY AT 05Z.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY THEN VEER
TO EASTERLY TOWARD EVENING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 101/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RER OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A
SLGT RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEPT TAFS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ALL THE TAF SITES
WERE EXPERIENCING A STEADY WIND AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREDIBLY WARM FOR THE TIME OF DAY WITH
A READING OF 90 AT SBY AT 05Z.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY THEN VEER
TO EASTERLY TOWARD EVENING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 101/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
846 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OUR INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED SPUR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THAT PUSHED FROM NEAR ISLE ROYALE TO LAKE
MI...IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CWA. THE RUC DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB AT
PIN POINTING THE STORM COVERAGE INITIALLY. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER /ALBEIT WEAKER/ SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TIMING AGAIN AROUND DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SCT TO ISO TSRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. COVERAGE WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. ML CAP
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-500J/KG. THE NAM IS MORE
FOCUSED WEST AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE GFS IS HINTING AT A S CENTRAL
AND ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A
CONCERN WITH AN TS THAT DEVELOP...DCAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND OR
ABOVE 1000J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN TODAY...AROUND 11-12KFT...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE TUES
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SHIFT E TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK
THOUGH...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPS SUPPRESSED TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
A FEW 90S TRYING TO PUSH INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LKS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LKS DURING THAT TIME. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE
NE...SHOULDN/T SEE ANY SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA FOR WED THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BUT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW/MID
LVL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WED/THURS. ON BOTH DAYS...BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W...WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE SFC HIGH.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN BOTH WED/THURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT IN SRN ONTARIO
TRIES TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD IT OFF.
FLOW BEGINS TO MERGE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMER H850
TEMPS TO THE SW TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE WEAK ENERGY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD SEE
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OVERALL...NO
APPRECIABLE SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SOME FOG COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED AT KIWD LAST NIGHT. THERE WAS A LITTLE RAIN NEAR KSAW
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION THERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS POINT. ISOLD CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
TUE AFTN. IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DO DEVELOP...KSAW HAS THE BETTER CHC OF
BEING AFFECTED GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OTHER THAN WITH ANY TS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS LS...HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 25KTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EDGE SE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS ABOVE 30 PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL CWA STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECISION WAS A RESULT OF THREE FACTORS.
FIRST...THE 12Z INL SOUNDING SHOWS A MUCH SMOOTHER WARM LAYER ALOFT
THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE CAPE WITH LESS INHIBITION ALOFT IN THIS CASE. SECOND...A
LONE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING AND HAS
RECENTLY KICKED OFF A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS TREND ERASES SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR. LASTLY...RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING
BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DESPITE DRY AIR ALOFT AS THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING ASSIST WITH
DESTABILIZATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIURNAL CUMULUS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...AND ARE A SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PLACED A MENTION
OF VCSH FOR SAW AS COVERAGE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AT ALL SITES BEFORE REAPPEARING MONDAY MORNING. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AT SAW. IWD AND CMX SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BRINGING LAKE-COOLED AIR ONSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS ABOVE 30 PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL CWA STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECISION WAS A RESULT OF THREE FACTORS.
FIRST...THE 12Z INL SOUNDING SHOWS A MUCH SMOOTHER WARM LAYER ALOFT
THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE CAPE WITH LESS INHIBITION ALOFT IN THIS CASE. SECOND...A
LONE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING AND HAS
RECENTLY KICKED OFF A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS TREND ERASES SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR. LASTLY...RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING
BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DESPITE DRY AIR ALOFT AS THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING ASSIST WITH
DESTABILIZATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES/NRN ONTARIO. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR IN
THE VCNTY OF INLAND MOVING LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
ANYTHING DEVELOPS. KSAW HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING SHRA OR TSRA WITH
MODELS HINTING AT MORE PRESISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF
KSAW. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES/NRN ONTARIO. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR IN
THE VCNTY OF INLAND MOVING LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
ANYTHING DEVELOPS. KSAW HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING SHRA OR TSRA WITH
MODELS HINTING AT MORE PRESISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF
KSAW. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF CONCERNS. FIRST...CLEAR SKIES
AND LITTLE/NO WIND MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL...SO MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES/NRN ONTARIO. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR IN THE
VCNTY OF INLAND MOVING LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD
BE UNDER THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE ANYTHING
DEVELOPS. KSAW HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING SHRA OR TSRA WITH MODELS
HINTING AT MORE PRESISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF KSAW.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATION OF
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCT-BKN060 WILL
BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY ONE TAF SITE SEEING PRECIPITATION. IF IT DOES RAIN...IT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS WNW 8-10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING
16 KNOTS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND NNE ON
MONDAY.
KMSP...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
22Z AND 01Z. NW WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING 16
KNOTS. WINDS TURING MORE 350-360 BY EVENING WITH SPEEDS LOWERING
TO 4-6 KNOTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NNW WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
OVERALL...THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...AS JUST A FEW LIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST IS THE VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW 60S...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE RECENT STRING OF DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT HOT STRETCH...WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DIGS. THIS SETUP MEANS WE`LL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST.
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MID-HIGH
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED RETURNS... ANY PCPN IS REMAINING WELL ALOFT AT THIS POINT.
THESE CLOUDS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
ONE SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO... WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER
WEAKNESS IS ALSO APPARENT IN NORTH DAKOTA... AND THIS SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND
THESE FEATURES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS CAM RUNS
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION AS THE AREA OF WEAK
FORCING AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ANY ACTIVITY WHICH MANAGES
TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED... BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW POPS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE... THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE
MORNING... LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY... AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS... WITH VERY SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS STRETCH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST...MEANING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 588
HEIGHTS AT 500MB LOOK TO RETURN BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPS OVER 20 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
OVERALL...THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...AS JUST A FEW LIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST IS THE VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW 60S...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE RECENT STRING OF DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT HOT STRETCH...WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DIGS. THIS SETUP MEANS WE`LL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST.
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MID-HIGH
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED RETURNS... ANY PCPN IS REMAINING WELL ALOFT AT THIS POINT.
THESE CLOUDS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
ONE SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO... WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER
WEAKNESS IS ALSO APPARENT IN NORTH DAKOTA... AND THIS SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND
THESE FEATURES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS CAM RUNS
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION AS THE AREA OF WEAK
FORCING AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ANY ACTIVITY WHICH MANAGES
TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED... BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW POPS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE... THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE
MORNING... LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY... AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS... WITH VERY SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS STRETCH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST...MEANING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 588 HEIGHTS AT
500MB LOOK TO RETURN BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER
20 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... AND SHOULD MAINLY
JUST RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SOME BKN CEILINGS AOA 6KT AGL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
TIME. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
BREAK UP THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPING TO
PRODUCE THEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND SOME ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY... BUT AT
THIS TIME THE LIKELIHOOD SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO MENTION IT IN ANY OF
THE TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
KMSP... TAF REFLECTS OVERALL EXPECTATIONS WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY BEING WHETHER WE SEE BKN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AND IF A SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT. BELIEVE
THERE IS A DECENT SHOT AT THE FORECAST BKN CEILINGS... BUT ANY
PCPN SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED... HENCE WHY NO MENTION WAS
INCLUDED. HOWEVER... SHOULD ANYTHING POP UP IT WOULD LIKELY BE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.
//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...AS JUST A FEW LIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST IS THE VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW 60S...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE RECENT STRING OF DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT HOT STRETCH...WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DIGS. THIS SETUP MEANS WE`LL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST.
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MID-HIGH
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED RETURNS... ANY PCPN IS REMAINING WELL ALOFT AT THIS POINT.
THESE CLOUDS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
ONE SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO... WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER
WEAKNESS IS ALSO APPARENT IN NORTH DAKOTA... AND THIS SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND
THESE FEATURES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS CAM RUNS
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION AS THE AREA OF WEAK
FORCING AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ANY ACTIVITY WHICH MANAGES
TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED... BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW POPS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE... THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE
MORNING... LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY... AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS... WITH VERY SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS STRETCH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST...MEANING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 588 HEIGHTS AT
500MB LOOK TO RETURN BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER
20 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO NW MN. THE
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP INTO CENTRAL MN...BUT WILL MAINLY STAY IN
NRN MN. PIECES OF ENERGY MAY PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN LATE TMRW INTO TMRW EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
RELATIVELY LACKING AND LIFT WILL BE QUITE MEAGER. THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM FEW TO SCT COVERAGE BUT
WILL OTHERWISE KEEP THE TAFS DRY SINCE MODEL POPS ARE BARELY 20
AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON TIMING. PRECIP MAY ALSO OCCUR ALOFT
AND NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM
THE N AND NW.
MSP...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 08/06Z TAF SET. FEW-SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN MIDLVL CLOUDS INCRS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW PRES WAVE ALOFT PUSHING THRU NRN MN...
POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL MN. SLGT CHC OF SOME SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE LATE
AFTN AND EVENING...BUT MAINLY N OF MSP...SO HAVE LEFT THE TAF DRY.
OUTLOOK...
.MONDAY...VFR. WINDS N 5-10KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VRBL.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS SW 10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SPD/JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
948 AM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 12Z NAM12 BRINGING
A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR ALSO INDICATING PRECIPITATION MOVING FURTHER EAST
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED STORMS FROM WEST OF
A LINE FROM SHERIDAN...HARDIN TO ROUNDUP FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
PW`S AROUND .75 INCHES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CAUSING LOW
LEVEL CAPE TO APPROACH 600 J/KG. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
WITH MIXING TO TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MID TO UPPER 90S
ON TRACK. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO INFLUENCE THE CWA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED. THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR A SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLIES TO
NORTHWESTERLIES AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AS THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS...THEN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS BACK TO
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THE
MOUNTAINS. DID SCALE POPS BACK A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...OPTED TO KEEP
BROADBRUSHED POPS. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A WIND SWITCH TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING MAINLY
WESTERN ROUTES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MIDDENDORF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 064/096 065/098 065/094 065/096 065/097 065/095
2/T 21/B 11/B 22/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 093 054/094 056/098 056/094 055/095 055/096 055/092
2/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 12/T 12/T 22/T
HDN 099 062/099 063/100 063/095 063/098 063/099 061/097
2/T 21/U 11/U 22/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
MLS 096 065/099 067/098 068/098 068/100 068/100 068/098
1/U 00/U 11/U 12/T 21/B 11/U 22/T
4BQ 093 063/095 064/098 065/097 066/099 066/099 066/097
1/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 21/B 11/U 22/T
BHK 091 063/094 063/094 065/094 065/094 065/096 066/093
1/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U 22/T
SHR 090 059/092 060/096 060/094 060/096 060/097 058/094
2/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH AND WINDS WILL BE FROM A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION OR
VARIABLE AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING
RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE
MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND HRRR OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PERHAPS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AM NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING...BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK DIABATIC HEATING...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST 00Z-03Z AS A RESULT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR WEST. WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOSE
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TUESDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG PRODUCTION PRIMARILY THROUGH LOW
LYING AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT 15
HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT
25-30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PLACING US WITHIN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE CWA TO BE VULNERABLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF ENERGY
THAT MAY ROUND THE RIDGE AND GIVE US PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. FRANKLY...TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN OVERALL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TOWARD A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SURE ENOUGH...MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS PROBABLE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT NECESSARILY MAKE THE TEMPERATURE A WHOLE
LOT COOLER FOR OUR WEATHER AS A TROUGH WOULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP IN
THE WEST AND A RESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
THIS WOULD MEAN A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE GENERALLY
EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS THIS MAY OPEN UP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND/OR SOUTH PACIFIC.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STEADILY CLIMB AS WELL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ACROSS SERN
COLO/WRN KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR. SATELITTE
SHOWS THE BEST SFC FOCUS DOWN THAT WAY WITH THE CU FIELD STREAMING WESTWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO SWRN NEB WHICH SHOULD GREATLY
STABILIZE THE ATM. STILL...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE FCST
HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA INDICATED SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THE 3KM AGL LEVEL FROM THE WSR-88D RADAR WIND PROFILES
SHOWED A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL END OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...THE SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE WEST...UPPER FLOW OVER
NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORES NORTHERLY. THEN WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA.
THE FIRST OF THE WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GOOD MONSOON MOISTURE RESIDES OVER NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SW
OF THE KLBF TERMINAL HOWEVER DID TEMPO -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DECENT
LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE KLBF TAF. FURTHER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOME ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE RIVER STAGE AT NORTH PLATTE JUST BELOW FLOOD AND LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN
COUNTY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EARLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEFORE DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WAS SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGAN TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT RANGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESCEND ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME
INCREASED LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A MORE DEVELOPED REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE FIRST FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
ALTHOUGH THE 4 KM WRF IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD WITH THE QPF ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF
GENERATED ACROSS NEBRASKA SLIDING SOUTH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...EVEN
WITH GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LIKELY ALTHOUGH CHANCES POPS ARE MENTIONED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD...AS DOES
THE SURFACE HIGH. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE NAM LAGS A BIT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY USING BOIVERIFY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT EVEN BE LOWER. EVEN
STILL...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE 12Z GFS PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLATED
LOW QPF SPOTS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. OVERALL...OUR
AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...TO 89 TO 94
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT AND HAS A LITTLE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THUS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM HONESTLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
ADDING THESE SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING RAIN IS SO LOW AND AM WORRIED ABOUT GIVING FALSE HOPE TO AREA
FARMERS. IF IT DOES RAIN IT SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOP OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE
END...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECWMF IS DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE DAY
SUNDAY WHEN IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS
AGAIN SEEMS TO GIVE TOO MUCH FALSE HOPE OF RAIN WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF LOW END QPF. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TOO
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAIN A FEW CONCERNS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST...AND THEREFORE
SKIES ARE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND CLOUD BASES LIFTING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SOME CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE MODEL INDICATES LOWERED
CEILINGS YET AGAIN THIS EVENING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. DECIDED TO
LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...GIVEN ONLY ONE MODEL
SUGGESTION...BUT SHOULD BE MONITORED AND MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER ON
DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE WEST
SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FOR AVIATION NEXT 24 HRS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
TSRA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE KFMN AND KABQ. STORMS MOVING SW OFF
THE COLORADO PLATEAU WILL SLIDE ACROSS KFMN BEFORE SUNSET WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE GFS SHOWS STORM COMPLEXES OVER CENTRAL NM AS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION
WITH IMPACTS AT KABQ FROM STORMS/RAIN THRU AROUND 06Z. THE LONGEST
DURATION IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO LCL HEAVY PRECIP
WILL BE AT KROW. HAVE CLEARED MOST TAFS OF PRECIP BY SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL SCENARIO IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME WITH LOWEST
CONFIDENCE ALONG THE TX STATE LINE WHERE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OUTLINES MOUNTAIN
RANGES QUITE WELL. STORM MOTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT LOBE SPINNING BTWN GALLUP AND GRANTS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ERN PLAINS. PLENTY OF BOUNDARY INTERACTION
YET TO OCCUR OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DURING MID-AFTERNOON
INDICATING MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE CAPE TO
TAP...LIKELY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS SHOULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING
LATER THIS EVENING IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GLORIETA MESA
CANYON INTO SANTA FE...AND QUITE TRICKY IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SET UP...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE/MOVE
EWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER...REMAINS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES TO MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS. BEST CHANCES
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS WWD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SEWD
TO THE SACRAMENTO AND GILA MOUNTAIN RANGES ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH ERN NM. THIS SFC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE IN THESE AREAS...AND
WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE NAM AND GFS GENERATING
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY....PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE GILA...INCLUDING THE LITTLE BEAR AND
WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCARS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN PUSHING SLIGHTLY SEWD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS WEDNESDAY. A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE SOUTH. THE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SPREADS SOUTH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE UT/CO BORDER TAPING DRIER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. UPPER
HIGH CENTER PARKS OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST.
33
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND
REPLENISHED MOISTURE IN WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THE STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST... AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS TO THIS STEERING
FLOW REGIME. A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF GRANTS HAS RESULTED
IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NEARLY STATIONARY OR VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS IS ONE AREA THAT WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
A POTENTIALLY LARGE AND ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND SLOWLY ROLL TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES
WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED EASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS THIS NIGHT.
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND WEST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL. AT THE SAME TIME...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS...A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHTLY
DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
A FAIRLY STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO END OF WEEK PERIOD
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...WITH
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WRAPPING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1133 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND GIVEN THE
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH ACTIVITY WITH THIS.
SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS AXIS HAVE WEAKENED AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STRONG
ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND NORTH OF I-90 WEST OF ROCHESTER.
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF WILL CROSS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE HRRR (AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM) HINTING AT A SECOND ROUND OF WEAK
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THIS
DEVELOPS...IT WOULD EVENTUALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS...AND WHILE THE
HRRR MAY BE CORRECT IN DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS ADVERTISED. WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LARGELY KEEP THINGS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
RANGE WITH THIS FEATURE.
IN EITHER CASE...IF A SHOWER DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD NOT BE A
STRETCH FOR IT TO STRENGTHEN TO A THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WILL ONLY MENTION
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOWS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY HAVE A MODEST IMPACT IN RAISING
THEM IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S IN
COOLER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO LOWER 60S IN THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF UNDERNEATH AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
GFS/SREF MODELS TRY TO SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE SRN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES THU AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS IN SERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND A WEAK LOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MOIST BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT
MID-LEVEL CAP...WILL ELECT TO KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM
AROUND +13C WED MORNING TO +16 BY FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY GIVING
WAY TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL SIMILARLY
RISE...THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY JUST CRACK THE 60 DEGREE MARK BY
THURSDAY SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IN
SPITE OF THE WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY STAY DRY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH
WILL INTRODUCE GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND
PROVIDE AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
BEING EXPERIENCED. WHILE IT IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT TO BE TOTALLY
CONFIDENT...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN
SENDING A HEALTHY SHOT OF MOISTURE UP THIS WAY IS CERTAINLY
ENCOURAGING. OF COURSE ACCOMPANYING THIS INCREASING IN MOISTURE WILL
BE A RETURN TO THE MUGGY WEATHER WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND. THAT
SAID...WITH 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED AROUND +16 TO
+18C VERSUS THE +20 TO +22C WE SAW LAST WEEK ALONG WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MOISTURE...HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE MID
80S...JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING PERIOD AS A
WEAK HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTION TO VSBY IS EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS TO THIN OUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND CALM CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE ONE CONCERN WILL COME TONIGHT WHEN A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
943 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND GIVEN THE
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH ACTIVITY WITH THIS.
SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS AXIS HAVE SLOWLY MOVED
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE NIAGARA ESCARPMENT. THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT NIAGARA/ORLEANS AND FAR
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER LATE THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF WILL CROSS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE HRRR (AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM) HINTING AT A SECOND ROUND OF WEAK
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS...AND WHILE THE
HRRR MAY BE CORRECT IN DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS ADVERTISED. WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT LARGELY KEEP THINGS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
RANGE WITH THIS FEATURE.
IN EITHER CASE...IF A SHOWER DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD NOT BE A
STRETCH FOR IT TO STRENGTHEN TO A THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WILL ONLY MENTION
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOWS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY HAVE A MODEST IMPACT IN RAISING
THEM IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S IN
COOLER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO LOWER 60S IN THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF UNDERNEATH AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
GFS/SREF MODELS TRY TO SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE SRN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES THU AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS IN SERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND A WEAK LOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MOIST BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT
MID-LEVEL CAP...WILL ELECT TO KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM
AROUND +13C WED MORNING TO +16 BY FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY GIVING
WAY TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL SIMILARLY
RISE...THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY JUST CRACK THE 60 DEGREE MARK BY
THURSDAY SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IN
SPITE OF THE WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY STAY DRY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH
WILL INTRODUCE GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND
PROVIDE AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
BEING EXPERIENCED. WHILE IT IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT TO BE TOTALLY
CONFIDENT...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN
SENDING A HEALTHY SHOT OF MOISTURE UP THIS WAY IS CERTAINLY
ENCOURAGING. OF COURSE ACCOMPANYING THIS INCREASING IN MOISTURE WILL
BE A RETURN TO THE MUGGY WEATHER WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND. THAT
SAID...WITH 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED AROUND +16 TO
+18C VERSUS THE +20 TO +22C WE SAW LAST WEEK ALONG WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MOISTURE...HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE MID
80S...JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING PERIOD AS A
WEAK HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTION TO VSBY IS EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS TO THIN OUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND CALM CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE ONE CONCERN WILL COME TONIGHT WHEN A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
735 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
GIVEN THAT IT WILL NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL OVERNIGHT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH ACTIVITY WITH THIS. AS OF 700 PM...A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS TROF AXIS...PROBABLY TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THERE IS ALSO A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE TROF ITSELF ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SPECIFICALLY IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN NEW YORK. A BLEND OF THE 18Z NAM/RGEM AND
LATEST HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THESE MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CAN STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT RADAR TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN THIS.
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF WILL CROSS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE HRRR (AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM) HINTING AT A SECOND ROUND OF WEAK
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AGAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
IN NATURE.
IN EACH CASE...IF A SHOWER DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD NOT BE A
STRETCH FOR IT TO STRENGTHEN TO A THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WILL ONLY MENTION
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOWS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY HAVE A MODEST IMPACT IN RAISING THEM
IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S IN COOLER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO LOWER 60S IN THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF UNDERNEATH AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
GFS/SREF MODELS TRY TO SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE SRN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES THU AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS IN SERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND A WEAK LOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT GIVEN
RECENT MOIST BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT
MID-LEVEL CAP...WILL ELECT TO KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM
AROUND +13C WED MORNING TO +16 BY FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY GIVING
WAY TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL SIMILARLY
RISE...THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY JUST CRACK THE 60 DEGREE MARK BY
THURSDAY SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IN
SPITE OF THE WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY STAY DRY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH
WILL INTRODUCE GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND
PROVIDE AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
BEING EXPERIENCED. WHILE IT IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT TO BE TOTALLY
CONFIDENT...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN
SENDING A HEALTHY SHOT OF MOISTURE UP THIS WAY IS CERTAINLY
ENCOURAGING. OF COURSE ACCOMPANYING THIS INCREASING IN MOISTURE WILL
BE A RETURN TO THE MUGGY WEATHER WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND. THAT
SAID...WITH 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED AROUND +16 TO
+18C VERSUS THE +20 TO +22C WE SAW LAST WEEK ALONG WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MOISTURE...HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE MID
80S...JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING PERIOD AS A
WEAK HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTION TO VSBY IS EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS TO THIN OUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND CALM CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE ONE CONCERN WILL COME TONIGHT WHEN A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/TJP
MARINE...TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO TO THE REGION TUESDAY...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...AND REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1056 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE FOR A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION (7
C AT CWMW) ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR SHOWING A COUPLE SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT POP NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TEXT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IT WILL BE DRIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 MPH IN OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A BRIEF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRECEDING THIS FEATURE IT MIGHT BE HARD TO
REALIZE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS MOST
REASONABLE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...DESPITE SOME MINOR GFS/EURO DIFFERENCES HERE AND THERE.
OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS SOLUTION OF DROPPING A SECONDARY AND
SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION ON WED
WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS...PREFERRING TO KEEP THINGS DRY PER
CONSISTENT 00Z EURO IDEA. THIS PLAYS WELL WITH INHERENT GFS MODEL
BIASES OF PUSHING COOL AIR SURGES TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE LONGER
TERM TIME FRAMES. BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HERE AND THERE
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH MEAN GFS/EURO 18-00Z
925 MB BLENDED THERMAL PROGS. INDEED...IF YOU BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS THINGS MAY TREND HOT AGAIN TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND
BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST OFFERED A CONSERVATIVE WARMING
TREND OF 1-3 DEG EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH GREAT MID-
SUMMER WX EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...SOME AREAS OF LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING
FEATURE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS SUBSIDE WITH CLEAR SKIES...CREATING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT. DRYER CONDITIONS SEEN WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL CAUSE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISOLATED TO PATCHY
AT BEST. WIND PROFILE WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
FAVORABLE SITES FOR LIFR FG WILL BE KMPV AND KSLK STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DENSEST FG EXPECTED AROUND 08Z/09Z THROUGH
SUNRISE. MONDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NW AT 7-12 KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. PATCHY IFR DUE TO BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. TUESDAY WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1056 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO TO THE REGION TUESDAY...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...AND REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1056 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE FOR A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION (7
C AT CWMW) ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR SHOWING A COUPLE SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT POP NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TEXT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IT WILL BE DRIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 MPH IN OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A BRIEF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRECEDING THIS FEATURE IT MIGHT BE HARD TO
REALIZE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS MOST REASONABLE
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...DESPITE SOME
MINOR GFS/EURO DIFFERENCES HERE AND THERE. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE
GFS SOLUTION OF DROPPING A SECONDARY AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION ON WED WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS...PREFERRING TO KEEP THINGS DRY PER CONSISTENT 00Z EURO
IDEA. THIS PLAYS WELL WITH INHERENT GFS MODEL BIASES OF PUSHING
COOL AIR SURGES TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE LONGER TERM TIME FRAMES.
BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OTHER
THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HERE AND THERE NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH MEAN GFS/EURO 18-00Z 925 MB BLENDED THERMAL
PROGS. INDEED...IF YOU BELIEVE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS THINGS MAY
TREND HOT AGAIN TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
OFFERED A CONSERVATIVE WARMING TREND OF 1-3 DEG EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH GREAT MID-SUMMER WX EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR/IFR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK 07-12Z MONDAY. OTW
SCT MID-LVL CIGS FROM FL050-100 TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SKC
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS AND OCCNLY
GUSTY TODAY...TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
PATCHY IFR DUE TO BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND THEN
STALLS AND LINGERS OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND ABOVE 100
DEGREES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IN AN AIR MASS DOMINATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS A RESULT
OF EARLIER AND SOME ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION. AS THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED AND MOVED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...THE
OVERALL INSTABILITY HAS WANED...WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
THE HIGH DCAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY HAVING EXITED CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN WAS THE PRIMARY LATE EVENING THREAT...IN
PARTICULAR WITH ONGOING URBAN FLASH FLOODING AROUND GREENSBORO.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE 850MB
FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALSO SETTLE SOUTH TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER BY
MORNING...WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THESE
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...MOVING
EAST. IN FACT...THE LATEST RAP FORECAST APPEARS TO INDICATE THE
ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...LIKELY ALONG OUTFLOW WITH FURTHER CELLS EXPECTED AS
OUTFLOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE 850MB FRONT. WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MORE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH
DEW POINTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70...BUT HAVE LOWERED MINS ON
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. -DJF
LIKELY POPS WILL RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH HIGHER NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MUCH REDUCED
FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...LOWER TEMPERATURES...AND MUCH LOWER
CAPE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 85 TO 90 DEGREES. -RAH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD...
PRIMARILY IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE
ABLE TO PROGRESS. THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 850MB FRONT
GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND
DRIER AIR BEING ABLE TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVER TIME. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE 850MB FRONT BASICALLY ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
ABOUT U.S. 64...WITH A MUCH MORE MOIST AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT HAS MADE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SO FAR...AND
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS DUE TO THE LATEST
TRENDS AND SEASONAL EXPECTATIONS. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...FOLLOWING
THE GFS...THE 850MB FRONT IS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 64...WITH WEAK 850MB WAVES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST...WITH GENERALLY SLENDER
CAPE...AND LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEING ON THE
FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT 250MB
JET...AND MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOTED
PARTICULARLY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS FAIRLY LOW...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN 100 OR 200J/KG AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...BUT -10C
TO -30C CAPE AT TIMES REACHES AS HIGH AS 500J/KG OR SO. WHILE
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
EVEN TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER TWO INCHES...
AND THE NAM FORECAST MUCH LOWER...AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR 1.75 INCHES...
AN AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.75 AND TWO INCHES WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DURING THE PERIOD...FORECAST THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE
850MB FRONT...STILL LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT WITH LESSER RAW PROBABILITIES COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
THE HIGHEST 850MB THETA-E VALUES AS FORECAST BY THE GFS ARE ALSO
ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...STILL RELATIVELY HIGH FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
HIGHEST APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED A
COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...
TENDED TO FORECAST MINIMUM VALUES NEAR THE HIGHEST GUIDANCE...AND
MAXIMUM VALUES NEARER THE COOLER GUIDANCE. BIAS-CORRECTED
INFORMATION FROM GUIDANCE HAD A GOOD APPROACH IT SEEMS AND LEANED
TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
DURING THIS PERIOD...CONSENSUS OF THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. LOWER HEIGHTS...AND DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
TRANSITION TO AN AIR MASS WITH GREATER HEIGHTS AND DIMINISHING
MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER TIME SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
MODEST REDUCTION IN 850MB THETA-E ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...DAY TO DAY...OVERALL 0-6KM
SHEAR DIMINISHES TO CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES IN SINGLE DIGITS KNOTS
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAKING STORM ORGANIZATION INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT OVER TIME.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTED THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CHANCES OVER TIME. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THAT TREND...
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES DEFINITELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WHEN HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE LOWEST...MOISTURE APPEARS GREATEST...AND LIFT
IS BEST WITH THE REMNANT FRONT OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THIS FORECAST
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH DEEP
CONVECTION AT ALL GIVEN THE STABILITY AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
MODEL FORECASTS. GFSX MOS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
EACH DAY IN TERMS OF CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND AS A RESULT AM
RELUCTANT TO MAKE A STARK CHANGE FROM SOLID CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FROM THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DAY TO DAY...AND EACH DAY THE RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
LIE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE HIGH ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST AND OVERALL MOISTURE TENDS TO BE HIGHER WEST.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS ALOFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HOURS OF SUN
INCREASES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO WARM. BY SUNDAY...
1000-850MB THICKNESSES...ALONG WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...FORECAST
HIGHS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK AT LEAST INTO
THE LOWER 90S...AND MID 90S COULD RETURN TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
PIEDMONT FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY...MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD
RISE BACK TO NEAR 100 PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND U.S. 1 AND
INTERSTATE 95. EARLIER...80S SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 SATURDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SANDHILLS...UNDER MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA FROM
SOUTHERN VA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING WILL WANE OVERNIGHT BUT GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT
MOST SITES AFTER 9Z TUESDAY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MIGHT BE MORE
LIMITED IN THE TRIAD AT STATIONS KINT AND KGSO. WILL COVER WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KINT AND KGSO AND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OTHER SITES.
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED OVERHEAD...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
COVER WITH A PROB30 GROUP STARTING AT 18Z AT ALL STATIONS. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
CEILINGS WILL FLUCTUATE BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 MILES OR LESS
AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS...HIGHER IN SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVERY DAY WITH CHANCES FOR FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AT ALL SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDER STRIKE CONTINUE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST IN A NARROW BAND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES EAST WITH NORTHERN
ROCKIES RIDGE STILL BUILDING. ADJUSTED DIURNAL TRENDS SOME BUT
TEMPERATURES AND SKY FAIRLY CLOSE TO TREND.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EXTENDING
FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ND NEAR KISN OTHERWISE FOR NOW JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HW
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL CWA HAS SHOWED A
WEAKENING TREND...BUT WILL KEEP 20 POPS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
HAVE GOING WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE IS
ONLY SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS FAIRLY MINOR. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HRRR MODEL CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S. MADE A
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUDS AND WINDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TODAY AROUND 5-6KFT ALONG WITH ISOLD
-RW/TRW...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS MOIST BIAS AND QPF FIELDS ARE TOO
WET...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER EC/NAM THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS SAME BOUNDARY DID
NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS YESTERDAY THOUGH...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH STORM COVERAGE AT ALL. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
IN THE SOUTH THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.
FOR MON...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL AND BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF TODAYS READINGS.
ON TUE... SOME WEAK WAA AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
HERE...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. THE
LATEST GFS DOES PUSH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE WON/T EXPAND POPS EASTWARD.
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE NEAR MONDAYS READINGS...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH DECENT WAA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MID-WEEK...ALLOWING
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE
MORE FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN THAN ANOTHER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
859 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE HELD TOGETHER A LITTLE FURTHER INTO OUR
AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE
MUCH AFTER DARK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST.
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GIVEN THE
SIMILAR AIRMASS IN PLACE LEANED MOSTLY TOWARD LAST NIGHT/S LOW
TEMPS WITH SOME CONSIDERATION TO THE MET AND MAV NUMBERS. BOTH
SHOW VERY SIMILAR READINGS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR...NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY SO LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE. IN FACT PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS
LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND MAINLY FOCUSED ON LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS.
ECMWF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM INVERTED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS
KEEPING DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING JUST SLGT CHC POPS INTO THE
FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE WILL FOCUS ON INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN. MODELS SHOW THE BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE NRN MS/WRM TN AREA. MODELS
SHOW AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO OHIO
WHILE THE RH PROGS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT
AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FAVORED LOCATION
BEING THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INVERTED TROF. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
WEST WITH THE TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE...EASILY AFFECTING ALL OF OHIO
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS OHIO BISECTED NW/SE. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT A
LOW CHANCE POP MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL TRIM
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST AS DEEP MOISTURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MONDAY MODELS SHOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER
TROF DROPPING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. GFS MOS TEMPS
TRENDING LOWER THAN HPC`S MID AND UPPER 80. WENT WITH THE WARMER
HPC NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AFFECTING TOLEDO AREA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND AREA...BUT
UNLIKELY GIVEN INCREASED SURFACE BASED STABILITY...DRYING MID TO
UPPER LVLS...AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF PASSES NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. WILL PUT VCSH AS FAR EAST AS
MFD WITH THREAT DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT TO VRB WNDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT
TOL WITH SHRA.
.OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW MOVED
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THIS WILL SET UP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE LAKE. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. CENTER OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE
LATE WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MAYERS/KUBINA
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
801 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING THE EFFECT OF SOME INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE MI. FOR THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO
MENTION SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY LUCAS...WOOD AND
OTTAWA COUNTIES WITH CHC POPS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP AFTER THAT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE LAKE. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN EVEN NW OH ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANY OTHER SCT CU WILL ALSO DIMINISH
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIRMASS IN PLACE LEANED MOSTLY
TOWARD LAST NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS WITH SOME CONSIDERATION TO THE MET
AND MAV NUMBERS. BOTH SHOW VERY SIMILAR READINGS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR...NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY SO LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE. IN FACT PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS
LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND MAINLY FOCUSED ON LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS.
ECMWF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM INVERTED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS
KEEPING DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING JUST SLGT CHC POPS INTO THE
FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE WILL FOCUS ON INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN. MODELS SHOW THE BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE NRN MS/WRM TN AREA. MODELS
SHOW AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO OHIO
WHILE THE RH PROGS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT
AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FAVORED LOCATION
BEING THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INVERTED TROF. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
WEST WITH THE TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE...EASILY AFFECTING ALL OF OHIO
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS OHIO BISECTED NW/SE. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT A
LOW CHANCE POP MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL TRIM
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST AS DEEP MOISTURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MONDAY MODELS SHOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER
TROF DROPPING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. GFS MOS TEMPS
TRENDING LOWER THAN HPC`S MID AND UPPER 80. WENT WITH THE WARMER
HPC NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AFFECTING TOLEDO AREA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND AREA...BUT
UNLIKELY GIVEN INCREASED SURFACE BASED STABILITY...DRYING MID TO
UPPER LVLS...AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF PASSES NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. WILL PUT VCSH AS FAR EAST AS
MFD WITH THREAT DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT TO VRB WNDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT
TOL WITH SHRA.
.OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW MOVED
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THIS WILL SET UP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE LAKE. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. CENTER OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE
LATE WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MAYERS/KUBINA
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
655M EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY ON E KY INTO CENTRAL WV.
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR...SITUATE JUST NW OF PERRY COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. IT EXTENDED NE TO AN APPARENT WEAK WAVE IN
CENTRAL PA...AND THEN EWD FROM THERE...THE OTHER END EXTENDING
WSWWRD JUST N OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. AS IT MOVES S
TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG AND S OF IT THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVEN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. FRONTAL POSITION AND MOVEMENT
PLACES INSTABILITY AXIS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY SWD TONIGHT.
WHILE BUOYANCY IS IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ARE MODEST AT BEST...AND PW VALUES PEAKING AOA 2 IN IS ALMOST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING. ALL THIS BRINGS IN TO QUESTION
THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS CAN ORGANIZE SHORT OF SMALLER STORM SCALE
INTERACTIONS...BUT PRESENCE OF SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLIES JUST N OF
THE FRONT MAY HELP THIS EVENING. DEGREE AND EXTENT OF WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THIS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE
FCST WORDING AS INTRODUCED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
ZONE SHIFTS SWD TONIGHT AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF BUOYANCY. UPPER LEVEL VENTING IS ALSO SHOWN
TO DIMINISH EXCEPT WHERE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SETTLES IN OVER
NRN WV AND SE OHIO LATE.
HIGHS TODAY LOOKED TO BE JUST BELOW GUIDANCE BUT IN LINE WITH THE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT AND ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SWD SHIFT OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT OFF
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CWA IS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODEL FORECASTS ARE
SUGGESTING. REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE CWA SOMETIME LATER MONDAY. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING TO
BE A THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...AND DRIER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH DRIER AIR NOT FILTERING IN UNTIL
LATER MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO FILTER INTO PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS CWA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE DOG DAYS...THE MEAN 500 MB TROF IN THE OH
VLY WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER...BUT DOES NOT REALLY EXIT. A WEAK SUMMER
FLOW REMAINS. NO ORGANIZED FRONTS FROM THE WEST THRU NORTH
FORESEEN.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY TRY TO LEAK BACK NORTH IN
TIME...SO CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC GUIDANCE FOR OUR USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS...SUCH AS BECKLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A W TO E ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG...EVEN SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO
MOVE E TO SEWD...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF STRONG WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO CODE UP AT THIS TIME...FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE LIKELY TO DROP AT LEAST DOWN TO MVFR MOST AIRPORTS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NW TODAY AND THEN LIGHT N
TONIGHT. LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
420 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR...SITUATE JUST NW OF PERRY COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. IT EXTENDED NE TO AN APPARENT WEAK WAVE IN
CENTRAL PA...AND THEN EWD FROM THERE...THE OTHER END EXTENDING
WSWWRD JUST N OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. AS IT MOVES S
TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG AND S OF IT THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVEN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. FRONTAL POSITION AND MOVEMENT
PLACES INSTABILITY AXIS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY SWD TONIGHT.
WHILE BUOYANCY IS IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ARE MODEST AT BEST...AND PW VALUES PEAKING AOA 2 IN IS ALMOST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING. ALL THIS BRINGS IN TO QUESTION
THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS CAN ORGANIZE SHORT OF SMALLER STORM SCALE
INTERACTIONS...BUT PRESENCE OF SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLIES JUST N OF
THE FRONT MAY HELP THIS EVENING. DEGREE AND EXTENT OF WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THIS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE
FCST WORDING AS INTRODUCED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
ZONE SHIFTS SWD TONIGHT AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF BUOYANCY. UPPER LEVEL VENTING IS ALSO SHOWN
TO DIMINISH EXCEPT WHERE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SETTLES IN OVER
NRN WV AND SE OHIO LATE.
HIGHS TODAY LOOKED TO BE JUST BELOW GUIDANCE BUT IN LINE WITH THE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT AND ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SWD SHIFT OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT OFF
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CWA IS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODEL FORECASTS ARE
SUGGESTING. REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE CWA SOMETIME LATER MONDAY. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING TO
BE A THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...AND DRIER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH DRIER AIR NOT FILTERING IN UNTIL
LATER MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO FILTER INTO PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS CWA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE DOG DAYS...THE MEAN 500 MB TROF IN THE OH
VLY WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER...BUT DOES NOT REALLY EXIT. A WEAK SUMMER
FLOW REMAINS. NO ORGANIZED FRONTS FROM THE WEST THRU NORTH
FORESEEN.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY TRY TO LEAK BACK NORTH IN
TIME...SO CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC GUIDANCE FOR OUR USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS...SUCH AS BECKLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A LIGHT S FLOW TO PRECLUDE FOG...SAVE
PERHAPS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
A W TO E ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY...S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG...EVEN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE E TO
SEWD...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
STRONG WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO CODE UP AT THIS TIME...FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE
LIKELY TO DROP AT LEAST DOWN TO MVFR MOST AIRPORTS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NW SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT N
SUNDAY NT. LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/08/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ALL
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DOWN TO ABOUT THE
POSITION PEGGED EARLIER BY THE RUC. THE LINE STILL SEEMS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE L60S IN WRN NY AND KBFD. HOWEVER...IT
MAY BE A MINOR ADVANCE OF THE NEW AIR MASS AS WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE. SOUPY AND STILL AIR IS FOUND TO THE
SOUTH OF IT. THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP DEWPOINTS LOWER A
BIT FASTER. THE BOUNDARY THESE THINGS ARE POPPING ON WILL SLIP
MORE TO THE SOUTH PER LATEST RUC WINDS. BUT IT WILL ONLY GET DOWN
TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WON/T GET OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING HELPS
TO RE-FIRE AND/OR EXPAND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP ON WITH SCT POPS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SPC
SLIGHT RISK HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND WHERE THE HIGHER CAPES ARE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN
WHERE THE STORMS ARE. SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE AND WE WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT REAR/ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL
JUST MENTION SOME POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO.
MAXES WILL BE ABOVE NORMALS IN MOST PLACES BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN SATURDAY WITH 80S WIDESPREAD AND L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT COULD HANG ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER TONIGHT. LOW CHC POPS ARE THE BEST
WAY TO PORTRAY THIS POSSIBILITY. CLEARING OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S THERE...BUT 60S A GOOD FCST WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND STILL MOIST AIR IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.
WHILE DRY AIR WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO THE SRN BORDER. THUS...CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION - PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN - LOOK GOOD FOR THE FAR
SRN TIER OF COS. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP IT DRY AND MO SUNNY OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA. MAXES WILL BE NEARLY NORMAL...AND HUMIDITY
LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
OF CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE DRY AIR. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER FOR MOST DAYS...BUT ALSO INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS INTO TUESDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MINOR SFC REFLECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA ATTM WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR KUNV ESE TOWARD KMDT. HAZE AND
FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND LNS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH MIXING AND DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT DURING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PM TSRA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PA AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988. KLNS HAD AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR RECORD OF
99F. WILLIAMSPORT CAME JUST TWO DEGS SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH THERE
AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED IN SHORTLY AFTER THE TEMP REACHED
99F. THE STORM MADE A 50KT GUST AND DROPPED THE TEMP AT KIPT
ALMOST 30F.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...GARTNER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
629 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ALL
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DOWN TO ABOUT THE
POSITION PEGGED EARLIER BY THE RUC. THE LINE STILL SEEMS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE L60S IN WRN NY AND KBFD. HOWEVER...IT
MAY BE A MINOR ADVANCE OF THE NEW AIR MASS AS WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE. SOUPY AND STILL AIR IS FOUND TO THE
SOUTH OF IT. THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP DEWPOINTS LOWER A
BIT FASTER. THE BOUNDARY THESE THINGS ARE POPPING ON WILL SLIP
MORE TO THE SOUTH PER LATEST RUC WINDS. BUT IT WILL ONLY GET DOWN
TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WON/T GET OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING HELPS
TO RE-FIRE AND/OR EXPAND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP ON WITH SCT POPS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SPC
SLIGHT RISK HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND WHERE THE HIGHER CAPES ARE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN
WHERE THE STORMS ARE. SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE AND WE WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT REAR/ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL
JUST MENTION SOME POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO.
MAXES WILL BE ABOVE NORMALS IN MOST PLACES BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN SATURDAY WITH 80S WIDESPREAD AND L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT COULD HANG ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER TONIGHT. LOW CHC POPS ARE THE BEST
WAY TO PORTRAY THIS POSSIBILITY. CLEARING OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S THERE...BUT 60S A GOOD FCST WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND STILL MOIST AIR IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.
WHILE DRY AIR WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO THE SRN BORDER. THUS...CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION - PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN - LOOK GOOD FOR THE FAR
SRN TIER OF COS. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP IT DRY AND MO SUNNY OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA. MAXES WILL BE NEARLY NORMAL...AND HUMIDITY
LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
OF CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE DRY AIR. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER FOR MOST DAYS...BUT ALSO INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS INTO TUESDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MINOR SFC REFLECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. REMAINING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MAINLY MVFR IN HAZE AND PATCHY FOG IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC WINDS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PM TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PA AIRFIELDS...BUT ODDS FAVOR A DRY FCST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988. KLNS HAD AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR RECORD OF
99F. WILLIAMSPORT CAME JUST TWO DEGS SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH THERE
AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED IN SHORTLY AFTER THE TEMP REACHED
99F. THE STORM MADE A 50KT GUST AND DROPPED THE TEMP AT KIPT
ALMOST 30F.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
321 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ALL
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. THIS LINE SEEMS WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A MINOR ADVANCE OF THE NEW AIR MASS AS WINDS
ARE NORTHERLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE. SOUPY AND STILL AIR IS
FOUND TO THE SOUTH OF IT. MOST RECENT HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT ARE
LACKING THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT THE RUC IS DOING
MUCH BETTER. THE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT DROPPING QUITE AS FAST AS MDLS
PROG...BUT THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP THIS COME AROUND.
WILL FOLLOW THE RUC FOR THE FIRST 6-9HRS OF THE FCST. THIS RESULTS
IN THE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THESE SHOWERS AS THEY INCH
SOUTHWARD TO KFIG-KUNV-KSEG BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HEIGHTS FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FRONT INCHES SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...IT WON/T GET OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING
HELPS TO RE-FIRE OR EXPAND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ON WITH SCT POPS FOR THE TIME. SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WHERE THE HIGHER CAPES ARE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN WHERE
THE STORMS ARE. WILL JUST MENTION SOME POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO. MAXES WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN
SATURDAY WITH 80S WIDESPREAD AND L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT COULD HANG ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER TONIGHT. LOW CHC POPS ARE THE BEST
WAY TO PORTRAY THIS POSSIBILITY. CLEARING OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S THERE...BUT 60S A GOOD FCST WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND STILL MOIST AIR IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
OF CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE DRY AIR. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER FOR MOST DAYS...BUT ALSO INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS INTO TUESDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MINOR SFC REFLECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. REMAINING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MAINLY MVFR IN HAZE AND PATCHY FOG IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC WINDS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PM TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PA AIRFIELDS...BUT ODDS FAVOR A DRY FCST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988. KLNS HAD AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR RECORD OF
99F. WILLIAMSPORT CAME JUST TWO DEGS SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH THERE
AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED IN SHORTLY AFTER THE TEMP REACHED
99F. THE STORM MADE A 50KT GUST AND DROPPED THE TEMP AT KIPT
ALMOST 30F.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
CLIMATE...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA...AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...OUTFLOW BNDRY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. OUR LOCAL WORKSTATION WRF HAS A
LITTLE ACTIVITY WITH IT OVERNIGHT AND THE SPC 4KM WRF-NMM HAS
NOTHING. INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT WITH THE OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH LASTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS DUBIOUS WITH THE WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION...THOUGH I
DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS CENTERED AROUND 0400
UTC.
AS OF 850 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE GA AND THE SRN PART OF THE
UPSTATE HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATELY. HOWEVER...THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE HOUR. THERE ARE SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES RUNNING AROUND THE REGION...AND THE LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES STILL OVER THE SW NC MTNS AND
MOST OF THE NRN UPSTATE. I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA LATER IN THE EVENING. AS IT STANDS
NOW...HOWEVER...POPS ARE GENERALLY LOW ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS
IN THE NE AND SRN MOST PART OF THE FA.
AS OF 540 PM EDT...WEAK FORCING AND FAR RANGING OUTFLOW BNDRYS HAVE
WORKED OVER A GOOD BIT OF THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS...BUT I/VE CUT THE POPS BACK CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START AS EXPECTED WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE MESOSCALE MDLS SUGGESTED. GREATEST COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS AND ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE
GA...INTO THE UPSTATE AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. ONLY
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE...STILL NUMEROUS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF NE GA...THE UPSTATE AND THE NRN MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR
OF NC. ANY OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE VALUES FROM 800 J/KG NORTH TO 1500 J/KG SOUTH. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR STILL FCST TO INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 25 KTS ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...SO THAT AREA HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION.
STILL...ORGANIZED STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. ALSO...COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE HIGHER DCAPE. HAVE ALREADY INCLUDED SVR TSRA WORDING IN THE FCST
THRU 00Z TO COVER THE POTENTIAL.
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS
INSTABILITY WANES. SH/TSRA COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE WOULD BE SCT AT BEST.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...ESP MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. LOWS AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DEVELOPING TUE
AS THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP
EXPECTED AGAIN. HOWEVER...DCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HIGH AS
AIRMASS MOISTENS. STILL...ISOLATED TO SCT SVR STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STRING OF
VERY HOT TEMPS SHUD FINALLY COME TO AN END WITH HIGHS NEAR TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE LWR MS VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SE CONUS IN THIS
PATTERN...KEEPING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED FROM SW
TO NE ACRS THE REGION. COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH PWATS IN THE 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL RANGE. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO AGREE SOMEWHAT ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SOME UPR DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LLVL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE TN VLY AS WELL...BACKING
THE FLOW TO S/SELY AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN VERY HIGH POPS...BASICALLY
SHOTGUN LIKELY ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE SHUD STILL BE SOMEWHAT OF
A DIURNAL NATURE TO POPS...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER
IMPULSES...THERE COULD BE DECENT COVERAGE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL PER INSTBY IN FCST SNDGS. IN FACT...FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY MOIST
COLUMN INDICATIVE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
PROBABLY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC SNDGS AND WEAK
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND LITTLE SPREAD IN GEFS SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
MEDIUM RANGE FCST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE
EAST COAST...BUT AMPLIFIES...PUSHING A FRONTAL BNDRY BACK NORTH FOR
THIS WEEKEND. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SELY...AND PWATS 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. SO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS PROGGED
THRU NEW DAY 7. GIVEN SUCH A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF HIGH POPS...HYDRO
CONCERNS MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. OVERALL...THERE
IS NO PERIOD WHERE UPR FORCING IS ALL THAT STRONG...AND 850MB
MOISTURE FLUX REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...WHILE MOISTURE PLUME/PWAT
ANOMALIES SHIFTS WEST OF THE CWFA (PER THE 12Z GEFS). SO WILL NOT
ADD ANY HYDRO MENTION IN THE HWO ATTM. EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER
AND A WARMING TEMP TREND AS UPR RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD. THE FORCING IS WEAK TONIGHT AND I
DOUBT THAT STORMS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL MAKE IT BACK TO THE
NORTH. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECTING LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ON TUESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSTMS IS EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN...PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE ADDED
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
LIGHT NLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE
CLOSE BY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...TSTMS CONTINUE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH OF
KAND...WARRANTING A VCTS AT THAT SITE. I DON/T THINK THE STORMS WILL
MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS...AND NO OTHER SITES HAVE THUNDER IN
THE TAF OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOG MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT...BUT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTN. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE INITIALLY OVER THE MTNS.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
AROUND STORMS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN
THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE ON
MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF OF 445 PM EDT...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND A BLEND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN USED FOR POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS YIELDS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE NEAR THE TN LINE IN A FEW HOURS...WITH SCT CONVECTION
WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NRN UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAMP UP OVER THE CENTRAL
SMOKIES AND INTO THE ESCARPMENT. WE JUST ISSUED A COUPLE OF SVR TS
WARNINGS DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...BUT THE CELLS HAVE BEEN DYING
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. CU CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWFA
WITH A FEW CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I AM EXPECTING THAT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON AND THE CURRENT STORMS PUT DOWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
COULD IN TURN PRODUCE MORE TS. I KEEP A SOLID TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSRA OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA THRU TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS STILL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL.
ON MONDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL OCCUR WRT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE STEEP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE VERY BROAD
UPPER TROF HOLDING OVER EASTERN CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SFC
BNDY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. I RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC
MTS BY 18Z WITH A SOLID CHANCE ELSEWHERE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES...IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK
S TUE-WED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO IT AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU THE UPPER FLOW. THE ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY
POPS CWA-WIDE. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME WITH COOLING BUT
SOLID CHC POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...
SHWRS IN THE AREA AND LOWER THICKNESS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE DOMINATED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE W WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE SETTLED OVER THE AREA. LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCT SHWRS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVG. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING W INTO THE REGION ON SUN WHICH WOULD PUT
THE AREA BACK IN THE USUAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW AVG NEXT
SUN AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISBY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR TSRA WITH BKN CB. EXACT TIMING/ONSET OF TSRA IS TOUGH TO
CALL...BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT SHOULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM
THE SW BECOMING MORE NWLY TOMORROW MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH VCTS FOR THE
FIRST 9 HRS OF THE PERIOD AND PROB30 FOR TSRA WITH CB LATER
TOMORROW. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST OVER KAVL IF THEY GET MUCH
PRECIP.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A TROUGH.
AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
AVL
JULY 8TH 96 IN 1988
JULY 9TH 93 IN 1986
GSP
JULY 8TH 101 IN 1986
JULY 9TH 100 IN 1993
CLT
JULY 8TH 101 IN 2010
JULY 9TH 101 IN 1986
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW.
EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE RISING SUN
SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING OF THIS IN ZFP PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST IS PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING ISO THUNDERSHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WEAK WAVE AND WIND
SHIFT LINE MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HRRR ALSO SHOWING SOME
ISO DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DESPITE THE STAGNANT PATTERN...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE BIGGEST
ISSUE IN THE FORECAST. FOR TODAY THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK
LL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET
A COUPLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
ONCE WE LOSE DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT THE REST OF TONIGHT TO BE
DRY. THEN WE TURN TOWARD MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE GFS
TROPOPAUSE MAPS...SHOULD TRACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AND
THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE A DECENT H7 THETAE RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PCPN ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LACK OF DECENT LL FEATURE AND STILL LIMITED
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PCPN. SO FOR
NOW AM GOING WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WE BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED. THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...MAINLY ON TIMING.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE TROF KICKING UP A
LLJ AND SOME INSTABILITY BY WED NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF
ANY ACTIVITY UNTIL THURSDAY. LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WED NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE ALLBLEND. AS THE LEE SIDE TROF HOLDS
STEADY AND THEN TRAVERSES THROUGH THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GFS KEEPING A VERY ACTIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN AND
THE ECMWF BECOMING QUIETER UNDER A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE. DUE TO
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND A SFC
BOUNDARY DROPPING SWD OUT OF ND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS OVER NERN SD BETWEEN 21-03 UTC.
ALTHOUGH KABR/KATY COULD SEE A STORM...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HOVER OVER...OR NEAR KPIR BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE
AOA 8K FEET AGL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT KABR LATE TONIGHT...DUE
TO FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR RADIATION FOG. LIKE LAST NIGHT...VSBYS
COULD DROP LOWER FOR A TIME BUT WILL NOT LOWER VSBYS FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
900 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY
EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE RISING SUN
SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING OF THIS IN ZFP PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST IS PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING ISO THUNDERSHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WEAK WAVE AND WIND
SHIFT LINE MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HRRR ALSO SHOWING SOME
ISO DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DESPITE THE STAGNANT PATTERN...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE BIGGEST
ISSUE IN THE FORECAST. FOR TODAY THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK LL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET A
COUPLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
ONCE WE LOSE DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT THE REST OF TONIGHT TO BE
DRY. THEN WE TURN TOWARD MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE GFS
TROPOPAUSE MAPS...SHOULD TRACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AND
THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE A DECENT H7 THETAE RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PCPN ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LACK OF DECENT LL FEATURE AND STILL LIMITED
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PCPN. SO FOR
NOW AM GOING WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WE BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED. THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...MAINLY ON
TIMING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE TROF
KICKING UP A LLJ AND SOME INSTABILITY BY WED NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS OFF ANY ACTIVITY UNTIL THURSDAY. LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE ALLBLEND. AS THE LEE SIDE
TROF HOLDS STEADY AND THEN TRAVERSES THROUGH THE CWA AS A COLD
FRONT PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY. THE MODELS
DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS KEEPING A VERY ACTIVE
SHORTWAVE PATTERN AND THE ECMWF BECOMING QUIETER UNDER A MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS KEPT THE
ALLBLEND POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME IFR GROUND FOG NEAR KABR EARLY THIS
MORNING THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE SUNRISE BY 1230Z. A
WEAK COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...WITH SOME INSTABILITY BUILT UP
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE MAY AFFECT KABR
BRIEFLY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS REMAINED IN CENTRAL SD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER TO WATERTOWN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A WEAK IMPULSE/MOISTURE SURGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
IS BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WELL
OVERDONE...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. IT CONTINUES THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY NEAR THE SURFACE SO ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE ECHOES ARE NOT EVEN PRODUCING RAIN
THAT REACHES THE GROUND. NONETHELESS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
18Z NAM COMING IN WITH A SHARPER WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AND IT A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
NOW...ALTHOUGH STILL RATHER LIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD GET SOMETHING GOING. DEWPOINTS ALSO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH...IF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THERE IS A VERY WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDING SOUTHEAST...MUCH LIKE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE OVERALL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME MINOR
ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO ALLBLEND ADVERTISING
SCHC/CHC POPS IN SEVERAL PERIODS. PER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE
TRIED TO REMOVE OR LOWER POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION VIA NORTHWEST ALOFT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...BELIEVE LITTLE/IF ANY PCPN WILL
OCCUR IN THE THIS CWA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ADDED LLM...ALONG WITH AN OPEN WAVE A
H5 MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS AT H7 WARMING INTO THE TEENS ABOVE C. THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS SHOWING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WHICH
SEEMS REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...WITH SOME
INSTABILITY BUILT UP THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE
MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
955 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS LIVE OAK TO GOLIAD COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHED THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN EWX
CWA TOWARDS S TX...AS OF WRITING. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
WHETHER CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HRRR HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MATURE THUNDERSTORMS /CLOUD TOPS OF -79C/ AND WITH 20 TO
30 KT SRLY LLJ PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS S TX OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THAT LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH HAS
KICKED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF CONVECTION WHICH MAY LIMIT
INFLOW AND ALLOW WEAKENING TO COMMENCE. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED 30
POPS ACROSS NE ZONES BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS /UP OR DOWN/
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES UNTIL 4AM
CDT. SSE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 93 76 93 76 / 20 50 30 40 20
VICTORIA 75 89 75 90 74 / 30 60 40 50 20
LAREDO 79 100 79 99 78 / 10 30 30 40 20
ALICE 75 95 75 95 76 / 20 40 30 40 20
ROCKPORT 80 90 79 90 79 / 30 50 40 40 20
COTULLA 76 94 75 96 75 / 20 50 40 40 20
KINGSVILLE 76 95 76 96 76 / 20 40 30 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 79 90 78 90 78 / 20 50 30 40 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
615 PM PDT Mon Jul 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and unstable air mass will bring showers and thunderstorms
to the region tonight. A slight cool down with mainly dry and
sunny conditions is expected Tuesday through Wednesday...but
temperatures will still remain well above normal. Another warm up
is expected late in the week with a chance of mainly mountain
thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to adjust for a later timing in the
convection. Subsidence behind the first shortwave that is now in
Canada had supressed convection developing during the peak heating
time...except for along the Cascade crest where a couple strong
storms exist. Will continue to monitor the storms in Oregon which
have developed over the mountains, but in association with a
second shortwave that is expected to lift over the region
overnight. These storms are moving off the ridges and expected to
track north-norteast overnight...reaching eastern Washington by
mid evening. The latest run of the HRRR has finally picking up on
the current trends and show the Cascades and southeast corner
being the prime areas for evening convection. Expect the main
weather threats will be strong gusty outflows from the collapsing
storms along with small hail and brief downpours. Coverage and
confidence on severe weather has dropped and SPC has taken down
the Slight Risk that was currently over the region. Otherwise the
Red Flag warning will continue until the threat for lightning has
ended. /rfox.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The region remains in a lull with subsidence dominating
much of the TAF sites in the wake of the departing shortwave.
Anticipate convection to fire in Oregon and track northward with the
second wave. But it will be delayed until after 03z, mainly
effecting KLWS, KPUW, KCOE and the KGEG/KSFF area with showers and
embedded evening thunder. Cigs will be VFR with elevated convection,
but gusty erratic winds and brief downpours with small hail will be
a concern. This second wave will exit the region after 12z, allowing
for clearing skies, westerly flow and VFR conditions. /rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 91 63 91 62 93 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 61 90 61 89 58 91 / 50 20 20 10 0 0
Pullman 67 89 56 89 57 93 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 73 99 67 99 67 102 / 50 10 10 0 10 0
Colville 61 92 58 91 55 94 / 40 20 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 53 88 56 87 54 89 / 50 30 30 10 10 0
Kellogg 62 91 57 89 55 91 / 50 30 30 10 10 0
Moses Lake 67 98 62 97 61 99 / 20 0 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 67 96 64 96 66 97 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 98 62 97 61 97 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East
Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East
Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
251 PM PDT Sun Jul 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually hot temperatures will continue over the region through
Monday...with only minor relief afterward as high temperatures
remain above average for the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms
will be common tonight through Monday night over much of the area.
More thunderstorms are possible mainly over mountains through
much of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge has reached its full amplitude over the
Inland NW this afternoon and the result has been the hottest day
the region has seen for quite sometime. The heat has combined with
dewpoints in the 50s resulting in some impressive CAPE values
across the region. The most favorable CAPEs will be found across
the southeast corner of WA into the southern ID Panhandle this
evening...as the RUC and NAM are showing values ranging from
1000-1500 j/kg with only weak convective capping in place. Whether
or not heating over the higher terrain can overcome this cap isn`t
certain. The more likely scenario is the convection firing over EC
Oregon and C Idaho will drift ENE during the evening...impacting
the SE corner of our forecast area. The other location which could
see convection fire this evening would be along the
Cascades...where CAPE values are also running above 1000 j/kg. CIN
or convective caps are even stronger in along the crest so dirunal
heating may not be enough to trigger any storms. Seems better
chances in the Cascades will be tied to the shortwave trough
currently moving northward through central Oregon. The latest HRRR
suggests this round of thunderstorms will begin by late evening
and gradually spread east-northeast overnight.
Monday through Wednesday...The active thunderstorm pattern will
continue Monday with a continued moist southerly flow aloft over
a hot and unstable air mass. NAM and GFS models both indicate
another short wave disturbance entering the region from the south
late Monday...with impressive dynamic support compliments of a
mutually supporting jet couplet focusing strong upper level
divergence this time over the eastern half of the forecast area
mainly Monday evening...but the air mass will remain so unstable
that any subtle triggering mechanism will be sufficient to
generate a storm just about anywhere in the forecast area during
the day Monday as well. Heavy precipitable water values in excess
of 1 inch will fuel this convection...but the low level air mass
will remain quite dry with soundings indicating an inverted "V"
structure. This will promote gusty winds radiating outward from
initial thunderstorms forming over northeast Oregon or the Blues
Monday afternoon. Gust fronts from these storms will likely
trigger further cells over the eastern basin and Idaho Panhandle
through the evening hours. Farther west in the deep basin and
Cascades thunderstorm coverage will probably be less dense...but
still active. The transiting short wave will cause the flow aloft
to become more southwesterly and shift the low level thermal ridge
eastward on Tuesday. This will bring a marginal moderation in the
hot weather on Tuesday but still very warm and certainly well
above average. The thunderstorm threat on Tuesday will follow the
850mb Thermal axis eastward and mainly impact the Idaho Panhandle.
On Wednesday a weak post-wave upper level ridge will build over
the region and allow High temperatures to bump back up a couple
degrees under the re-establishing thermal trough and with a drier
air mass promoting a more efficient heating of the low level
layer. A small residual thunderstorm threat will remain Wednesday
mainly over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle. /Fugazzi
Wednesday night through Sunday...The ridge of high pressure will
hold strong for one more day before starting to breakdown due to the
presence of an approaching Pacific trough. Wednesday night and
Thursday will be mostly dry with valley high temperatures in the
90s. By Thursday night the trough will be near the PacNW coast,
ushering in moisture on southwest flow. Models are coming into
better agreement in the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. While
there are still considerable differences in the track of the low
pressure center, it appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have settled
on Friday for the trough to come inland. PoPs have been raised above
climo for much of the forecast area for the end of the workweek with
the focus remaining on the higher terrain. The moisture tap does not
look particularly impressive but it is forecast to be 120 to 180
percent of normal. The southeast zones could also gain the benefit of
monsoonal moisture surging up from the south. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the trough passage. For the weekend,
model solutions diverge quite a bit. The forecast trends toward the
EC, which shows cooler and drier conditions in northwest flow. The
GFS has a closed low settling over the region. This is a less likely
scenario, but not totally out of the realm of possibilities. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms still expected to arrive late this evening and continue
through Monday. The thunderstorms will likely produce abundant
lightning strikes and based on the high cloud bases could produce
good wind gust potential as well. The one problem is the storms
could also produce a decent amount of rain per preciptable water
values nearly double the seasonal normals. Nonetheless it won`t
take much to get a fire started in the finer fuels across the
Cascade Valleys and Columbia Basin per input from the land
agencies. Based on additional fuel intelligence...we also decided
to include the Methow and Okanogan Valleys in the red flag
warning. Thunderstorm chances will begin to wane during the late
Monday afternoon near the Cascades as a weak cold front pushes
through. This results in an increase of northwest
winds...particularly in the Kittitas Valley which could exacerbate
any fires which start earlier in the day. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure over the region will promote
VFR conditions at TAF sites, with light winds. Elevated
instability and weak impulses riding up the west side of the ridge
of high pressure will bring some mid and high clouds, with some CU
around the mountains. A few afternoon -shra/-tsra are possible
around the mtns. as well, possibly in the vcnty of KLWS/KPUW this
afternoon. A more organized upper disturbance will begin to
approach tonight into Monday morning, thickening clouds and
bringing higher -shra/-tsra chances toward the Cascades and
Columbia Basin...including near KEAT/KMWH...as well as lingering
near KPUW/KLWS. The best chance of measurable precipitation will
be closer to the Cascades. VFR conditions expected at all TAF
sites outside of thunderstorm cores. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 97 67 91 64 92 / 10 20 50 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 97 63 89 60 89 / 10 20 50 20 20 10
Pullman 61 94 60 89 57 90 / 10 30 50 20 10 10
Lewiston 72 102 69 99 67 100 / 20 30 50 20 10 20
Colville 57 100 60 94 58 91 / 10 20 50 30 10 10
Sandpoint 55 95 59 87 57 87 / 10 20 60 30 20 20
Kellogg 61 96 60 88 57 89 / 20 20 50 30 30 20
Moses Lake 69 100 67 99 63 98 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
Wenatchee 72 99 68 96 65 97 / 30 30 20 10 0 0
Omak 65 100 63 98 61 96 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday
for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East
Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
234 PM PDT Sun Jul 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually hot temperatures will continue over the region through
Monday...with only minor relief afterward as high temperatures
remain above average for the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms
will be common tonight through Monday night over much of the area.
More thunderstorms are possible mainly over mountains through
much of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge has reached its full amplitude over the
Inland NW this afternoon and the result has been the hottest day
the region has seen for quite sometime. The heat has combined with
dewpoints in the 50s resulting in some impressive CAPE values
across the region. The most favorable CAPEs will be found across
the southeast corner of WA into the southern ID Panhandle this
evening...as the RUC and NAM are showing values ranging from
1000-1500 j/kg with only weak convective capping in place. Whether
or not heating over the higher terrain can overcome this cap isn`t
certain. The more likely scenario is the convection firing over EC
Oregon and C Idaho will drift ENE during the evening...impacting
the SE corner of our forecast area. The other location which could
see convection fire this evening would be along the
Cascades...where CAPE values are also running above 1000 j/kg. CIN
or convective caps are even stronger in along the crest so diurnal
heating may not be enough to trigger any storms. Seems better
chances in the Cascades will be tied to the shortwave trough
currently moving northward through central Oregon. The latest HRRR
suggests this round of thunderstorms will begin by late evening
and gradually spread east-northeast overnight. fx
Monday through Wednesday...The active thunderstorm pattern will
continue Monday with a continued moist southerly flow aloft over
a hot and unstable air mass. NAM and GFS models both indicate
another short wave disturbance entering the region from the south
late Monday...with impressive dynamic support compliments of a
mutually supporting jet couplet focusing strong upper level
divergence this time over the eastern half of the forecast area
mainly Monday evening...but the air mass will remain so unstable
that any subtle triggering mechanism will be sufficient to
generate a storm just about anywhere in the forecast area during
the day Monday as well. Heavy precipitable watter values in excess
of 1 inch will fuel this convection...but the low level air mass
will remain quite dry with soundings indicating an inverted "V"
structure. This will promote gusty winds radiating outward from
initial thunderstorms forming over northeast Oregon or the Blues
Monday afternoon. Gust fronts from these storms will likely
trigger further cells over the eastern basin and Idaho Panhandle
through the evening hours. Farther west in the deep basin and
Cascades thunderstorm coverage will probably be less dense...but
still active. The transiting short wave will cause the flow aloft
to become more southwesterly and shift the low level thermal ridge
eastward on Tuesday. This will bring a marginal moderation in the
hot weather on Tuesday but still very warm and certainly well
above average. The thunderstorm threat on Tuesday will follow the
850mb Thermal axis eastward and mainly impact the Idaho Panhandle.
On Wednesday a weak post-wave upper level ridge will build over
the region and allow High temperatures to bump back up a couple
degrees under the re-establishing thermal trough and with a drier
air mass promoting a more efficient heating of the low level
layer. A small residual thunderstorm threat will remain Wednesday
mainly over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle. /Fugazzi
Wednesday night through Sunday...The ridge of high pressure will
hold strong for one more day before starting to breakdown due to the
presence of an approaching Pacific trough. Wednesday night and
Thursday will be mostly dry with valley high temperatures in the
90s. By Thursday night the trough will be near the PacNW coast,
ushering in moisture on southwest flow. Models are coming into
better agreement in the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. While
there are still considerable differences in the track of the low
pressure center, it appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have settled
on Friday for the trough to come inland. PoPs have been raised above
climo for much of the forecast area for the end of the workweek with
the focus remaining on the higher terrain. The moisture tap does not
look particularly impressive but it is forecast to be 120 to 180
percent of normal. The southeast zones could also gain the benefit of
monsoonal moisture surging up from the south. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the trough passage. For the weekend,
model solutions diverge quite a bit. The forecast trends toward the
EC, which shows cooler and drier conditions in northwest flow. The
GFS has a closed low settling over the region. This is a less likely
scenario, but not totally out of the realm of possibilities. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms still expected to arrive late this evening and
continue through Monday. The thunderstorms will likely produce
abundant lightning strikes and based on the high cloud bases could
produce good wind gust potential as well. The one problem is the
storms could also produce a decent amount of rain per precipitable
water values nearly double the seasonal normals. Nonetheless it
won`t take much to get a fire started in the finer fuels across
the Cascade Valleys and Columbia Basin per input from the land
agencies. Based on additional fuel intelligence...we also decided
to include the Methow and Okanogan Valleys in the red flag
warning. Thunderstorm chances will begin to wane during the late
Monday afternoon near the Cascades as a weak cold front pushes
through. This results in an increase of northwest
winds...particularly in the Kittitas Valley which could exacerbate
any fires which start earlier in the day. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure over the region will promote
VFR conditions at TAF sites, with light winds. Elevated
instability and weak impulses riding up the west side of the ridge
of high pressure will bring some mid and high clouds, with some CU
around the mountains. A few afternoon -shra/-tsra are possible
around the mtns. as well, possibly in the vcnty of KLWS/KPUW this
afternoon. A more organized upper disturbance will begin to
approach tonight into Monday morning, thickening clouds and
bringing higher -shra/-tsra chances toward the Cascades and
Columbia Basin...including near KEAT/KMWH...as well as lingering
near KPUW/KLWS. The best chance of measurable precipitation will
be closer to the Cascades. VFR conditions expected at all TAF
sites outside of thunderstorm cores. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 97 67 91 64 92 / 10 20 50 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 97 63 89 60 89 / 10 20 50 20 20 10
Pullman 61 94 60 89 57 90 / 10 30 50 20 10 10
Lewiston 72 102 69 99 67 100 / 20 30 50 20 10 20
Colville 57 100 60 94 58 91 / 10 20 50 30 10 10
Sandpoint 55 95 59 87 57 87 / 10 20 60 30 20 20
Kellogg 61 96 60 88 57 89 / 20 20 50 30 30 20
Moses Lake 69 100 67 99 63 98 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
Wenatchee 72 99 68 96 65 97 / 30 30 20 10 0 0
Omak 65 100 63 98 61 96 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday
for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East
Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...EARLIER START FOR STORMS TODAY...
TODAY...A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHICH IS PRODUCING A DEEPER LAYER OF SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THIS IS INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AND SATELLITE-
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS THE DRY RIBBON THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE AREA IS ERODING. IN ADDITION...THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
SOME VORT ENERGY LIFTING NW TOWARDS THE TREASURE COAST SO EXPECT
AN EARLIER ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR ALL
OF THE AREA...RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH INTERIOR.
WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AMOUNTS...THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ACCUMULATING 2-3 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR TWO. BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPS STILL REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
INTERIOR AND MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT HAVE COOLED TO -8C...THERE
REMAINS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WITH THE EARLIER ONSET OF STORMS EXPECTED...THINK THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. BUT INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE TREASURE
COAST (30 POP) DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 POP)
UP TO ABOUT THE CAPE.
WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BRING IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH GFS SHOWING PW VALUES
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. HAVE
THEREFORE LIMITED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE (AROUND 50%) FOR THE TIME
BEING. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST
AND LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER IF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PERSIST INTO THE AFT...TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN INDICATED.
THU-FRI...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK WITH LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW PERSISTING. GFS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STILL
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
SAT-TUE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
INTO GULF DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH KEEPS RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
AREA. LONG TERM MODELS THEN SHOW RIDGE BUILDING BACK SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30-40 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING EVIDENCED BY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE ATLC AND EASTERN GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EARLIER START TO SHRA/TSRA AND
OVERALL HIGHER COVERAGE. WILL NEED VCSH/VCTS THIS MORNING FOR MLB-
SUA. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP IN THE EARLY-MID AFTN FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS (MCO/SFB/LEE) FOR TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS. AN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY WORK FARTHER NORTH. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND
UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
WED-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 2-4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 89 76 / 30 10 40 20
MCO 93 74 93 74 / 40 10 50 30
MLB 89 76 88 76 / 40 20 40 20
VRB 89 76 89 75 / 40 20 50 20
LEE 93 75 93 76 / 40 10 50 30
SFB 94 76 92 76 / 40 10 50 30
ORL 92 76 93 77 / 40 10 50 30
FPR 88 75 88 74 / 40 30 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
203 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
STALLED THERE INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SE
VA/NE NC. THERE IS STILL SOME ELEVATED CAPE PER RAP ANALYSIS...SO A
FEW EMBEDDED CELLS WITH INTENSE LIGHTING COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.
OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TOWARD MORNING WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FELL TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 70 TO 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO THU WITH MAINLY
SCTD AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL WASHOUT OR
DISSIPATE DURING THU...AS HIER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND BERMUDA HI PRES
BLD IN FM THE EAST. THE HIEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION. FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FM THE HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK
CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S
TUE...WED AND THU...WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE
END OR THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE BUILDING
IN OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. THE EMWF BRINGS
THE RIDGE OR BERMUDA HIGH IN FASTER SHUNTING THE BEST POPS TO THE
WEST WHERE THE GFS IS SLOWER BUILDING THE RIDGE IN ALLOWING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN
MORE ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S AND WARMER ON
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR A WARMUP INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WILL CARRY ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL/AFTN- EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
SUNDAY (20% POPS) EAST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID- UPR 60S TO LWR
70S. THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT WAST AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. THIS COULD
BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS OF 05Z. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE
TO A MOISTENED LOW LEVEL FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL. ALSO WINDS HAVE A
FAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH IFR
CIGS FORECAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT ECG AND PHF.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MID MRNG AND LOOK FOR SCT TSTMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTN WITH HIGHER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN OR TSTMS
EXCEPT AT ECG. HAVE PERSISTENT LGT RAIN AT ECG AFT 00Z PER LAV
GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVNG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY MVFR/IFR WILL BE PSBL EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE DECREASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KT OR LESS. SEAS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILT TO 2 TO 3 FEET...BUT WILL BE
DECREASING BACK TO A SOLID 2 FEET THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC WITH EASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
WITH THE PATTERN SLOW TO CHANGE THIS WEEK EXPECT A STEADY NE TO E
FLOW ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 3 TO OCCASIONALLY 4 FEET NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH TO THE NC WATERS SEAS WILL
RUN MAINLY AROUND 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FEET.
WINDS CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. SCA CRITERIA WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RIC AND ORF HAD RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS SUNDAY. SEE RER`S FOR THESE
AND THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND AT RIC ORF SBY AND
ECG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
STALLED THERE INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SE
VA/NE NC. THERE IS STILL SOME ELEVATED CAPE PER RAP ANALYSIS...SO A
FEW EMBEDDED CELLS WITH INTENSE LIGHTING COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.
OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TOWARD MORNING WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FELL TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 70 TO 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO THU WITH MAINLY
SCTD AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL WASHOUT OR
DISSIPATE DURING THU...AS HIER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND BERMUDA HI PRES
BLD IN FM THE EAST. THE HIEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION. FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FM THE HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK
CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S
TUE...WED AND THU...WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE
END OR THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE BUILDING
IN OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. THE EMWF BRINGS
THE RIDGE OR BERMUDA HIGH IN FASTER SHUNTING THE BEST POPS TO THE
WEST WHERE THE GFS IS SLOWER BUILDING THE RIDGE IN ALLOWING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN
MORE ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S AND WARMER ON
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR A WARMUP INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WILL CARRY ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL/AFTN- EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
SUNDAY (20% POPS) EAST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID- UPR 60S TO LWR
70S. THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT WAST AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. THIS COULD
BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AT RIC PHF ORF AND ECG TERMINALS. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOWER VSBY
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR. EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBY
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH COULD
CAUSE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE DECREASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KT OR LESS. SEAS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILT TO 2 TO 3 FEET...BUT WILL BE
DECREASING BACK TO A SOLID 2 FEET THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC WITH EASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
WITH THE PATTERN SLOW TO CHANGE THIS WEEK EXPECT A STEADY NE TO E
FLOW ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 3 TO OCCASIONALLY 4 FEET NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH TO THE NC WATERS SEAS WILL
RUN MAINLY AROUND 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FEET.
WINDS CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. SCA CRITERIA WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RIC AND ORF HAD RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS SUNDAY. SEE RER`S FOR THESE
AND THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND AT RIC ORF SBY AND
ECG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OUR INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED SPUR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THAT PUSHED FROM NEAR ISLE ROYALE TO LAKE
MI...IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CWA. THE RUC DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB AT
PIN POINTING THE STORM COVERAGE INITIALLY. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER /ALBEIT WEAKER/ SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TIMING AGAIN AROUND DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SCT TO ISO TSRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. COVERAGE WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. ML CAP
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-500J/KG. THE NAM IS MORE
FOCUSED WEST AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE GFS IS HINTING AT A S CENTRAL
AND ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A
CONCERN WITH AN TS THAT DEVELOP...DCAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND OR
ABOVE 1000J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN TODAY...AROUND 11-12KFT...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE TUES
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SHIFT E TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK
THOUGH...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPS SUPPRESSED TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
A FEW 90S TRYING TO PUSH INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LKS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LKS DURING THAT TIME. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE
NE...SHOULDN/T SEE ANY SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA FOR WED THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BUT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW/MID
LVL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WED/THURS. ON BOTH DAYS...BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W...WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE SFC HIGH.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN BOTH WED/THURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT IN SRN ONTARIO
TRIES TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD IT OFF.
FLOW BEGINS TO MERGE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMER H850
TEMPS TO THE SW TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE WEAK ENERGY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD SEE
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OVERALL...NO
APPRECIABLE SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SOME FOG COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED AT KIWD LAST NIGHT. THERE WAS A LITTLE RAIN NEAR KSAW
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION THERE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS POINT. ISOLD CONVECTION
IS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DO DEVELOP...KSAW HAS
THE BETTER CHC OF BEING AFFECTED GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OTHER THAN WITH ANY TS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS LS...HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 25KTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EDGE SE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS LATEST
RADAR RETURNS INDICATING SOME LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CIGS TO RETURN BY
10/08Z...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE GROUND AS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LIGHT GRADIENT...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN 10KTS
OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING
RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE
MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND HRRR OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PERHAPS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AM NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING...BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK DIABATIC HEATING...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST 00Z-03Z AS A RESULT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR WEST. WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOSE
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TUESDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG PRODUCTION PRIMARILY THROUGH LOW
LYING AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT 15
HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT
25-30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PLACING US WITHIN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE CWA TO BE VULNERABLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF ENERGY
THAT MAY ROUND THE RIDGE AND GIVE US PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. FRANKLY...TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN OVERALL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TOWARD A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SURE ENOUGH...MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS PROBABLE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT NECESSARILY MAKE THE TEMPERATURE A WHOLE
LOT COOLER FOR OUR WEATHER AS A TROUGH WOULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP IN
THE WEST AND A RESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
THIS WOULD MEAN A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE GENERALLY
EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS THIS MAY OPEN UP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND/OR SOUTH PACIFIC.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STEADILY CLIMB AS WELL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1012 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
LOWERED EVENING POPS FOR MOST LOCALES AS PER RADAR TRENDS...EXCEPT
FOR PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY AND LOWERED MAJORITY OF AREA A
LITTLE LESS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE POST MIDNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WERE DROPPED A BIT FOR SOME LOCALES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WORKED
OVER MOST BY STORMS/RAINFALL. ZONES ALREADY OUT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...559 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FOR AVIATION NEXT 24 HRS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
TSRA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE KFMN AND KABQ. STORMS MOVING SW OFF
THE COLORADO PLATEAU WILL SLIDE ACROSS KFMN BEFORE SUNSET WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE GFS SHOWS STORM COMPLEXES OVER CENTRAL NM AS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION
WITH IMPACTS AT KABQ FROM STORMS/RAIN THRU AROUND 06Z. THE LONGEST
DURATION IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO LCL HEAVY PRECIP
WILL BE AT KROW. HAVE CLEARED MOST TAFS OF PRECIP BY SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL SCENARIO IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME WITH LOWEST
CONFIDENCE ALONG THE TX STATE LINE WHERE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OUTLINES MOUNTAIN
RANGES QUITE WELL. STORM MOTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT LOBE SPINNING BTWN GALLUP AND GRANTS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ERN PLAINS. PLENTY OF BOUNDARY INTERACTION
YET TO OCCUR OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DURING MID-AFTERNOON
INDICATING MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE CAPE TO
TAP...LIKELY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS SHOULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING
LATER THIS EVENING IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GLORIETA MESA
CANYON INTO SANTA FE...AND QUITE TRICKY IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SET UP...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE/MOVE
EWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER...REMAINS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES TO MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS. BEST CHANCES
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS WWD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SEWD
TO THE SACRAMENTO AND GILA MOUNTAIN RANGES ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH ERN NM. THIS SFC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE IN THESE AREAS...AND
WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE NAM AND GFS GENERATING
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY....PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE GILA...INCLUDING THE LITTLE BEAR AND
WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCARS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN PUSHING SLIGHTLY SEWD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS WEDNESDAY. A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE SOUTH. THE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SPREADS SOUTH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE UT/CO BORDER TAPING DRIER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. UPPER
HIGH CENTER PARKS OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST.
33
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND
REPLENISHED MOISTURE IN WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THE STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST... AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS TO THIS STEERING
FLOW REGIME. A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF GRANTS HAS RESULTED
IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NEARLY STATIONARY OR VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS IS ONE AREA THAT WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
A POTENTIALLY LARGE AND ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND SLOWLY ROLL TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES
WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED EASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS THIS NIGHT.
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND WEST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL. AT THE SAME TIME...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS...A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHTLY
DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
A FAIRLY STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO END OF WEEK PERIOD
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...WITH
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WRAPPING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK... BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ALONG WITH SEASONABLE COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IN AN AIR MASS DOMINATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS A RESULT
OF EARLIER AND SOME ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION. AS THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED AND MOVED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...THE
OVERALL INSTABILITY HAS WANED...WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
THE HIGH DCAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY HAVING EXITED CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN WAS THE PRIMARY LATE EVENING THREAT...IN
PARTICULAR WITH ONGOING URBAN FLASH FLOODING AROUND GREENSBORO.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE 850MB
FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALSO SETTLE SOUTH TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER BY
MORNING...WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THESE
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...MOVING
EAST. IN FACT...THE LATEST RAP FORECAST APPEARS TO INDICATE THE
ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...LIKELY ALONG OUTFLOW WITH FURTHER CELLS EXPECTED AS
OUTFLOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE 850MB FRONT. WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MORE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH
DEW POINTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70...BUT HAVE LOWERED MINS ON
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. -DJF
LIKELY POPS WILL RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH HIGHER NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MUCH REDUCED
FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...LOWER TEMPERATURES...AND MUCH LOWER
CAPE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 85 TO 90 DEGREES. -RAH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD...
PRIMARILY IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE
ABLE TO PROGRESS. THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 850MB FRONT
GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND
DRIER AIR BEING ABLE TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVER TIME. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE 850MB FRONT BASICALLY ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
ABOUT U.S. 64...WITH A MUCH MORE MOIST AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT HAS MADE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SO FAR...AND
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS DUE TO THE LATEST
TRENDS AND SEASONAL EXPECTATIONS. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...FOLLOWING
THE GFS...THE 850MB FRONT IS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 64...WITH WEAK 850MB WAVES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST...WITH GENERALLY SLENDER
CAPE...AND LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEING ON THE
FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT 250MB
JET...AND MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOTED
PARTICULARLY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS FAIRLY LOW...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN 100 OR 200J/KG AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...BUT -10C
TO -30C CAPE AT TIMES REACHES AS HIGH AS 500J/KG OR SO. WHILE
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
EVEN TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER TWO INCHES...
AND THE NAM FORECAST MUCH LOWER...AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR 1.75 INCHES...
AN AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.75 AND TWO INCHES WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DURING THE PERIOD...FORECAST THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE
850MB FRONT...STILL LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT WITH LESSER RAW PROBABILITIES COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
THE HIGHEST 850MB THETA-E VALUES AS FORECAST BY THE GFS ARE ALSO
ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...STILL RELATIVELY HIGH FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
HIGHEST APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA BORDER. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED A
COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...
TENDED TO FORECAST MINIMUM VALUES NEAR THE HIGHEST GUIDANCE...AND
MAXIMUM VALUES NEARER THE COOLER GUIDANCE. BIAS-CORRECTED
INFORMATION FROM GUIDANCE HAD A GOOD APPROACH IT SEEMS AND LEANED
TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
DURING THIS PERIOD...CONSENSUS OF THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. LOWER HEIGHTS...AND DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
TRANSITION TO AN AIR MASS WITH GREATER HEIGHTS AND DIMINISHING
MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER TIME SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
MODEST REDUCTION IN 850MB THETA-E ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...DAY TO DAY...OVERALL 0-6KM
SHEAR DIMINISHES TO CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES IN SINGLE DIGITS KNOTS
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAKING STORM ORGANIZATION INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT OVER TIME.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTED THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CHANCES OVER TIME. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THAT TREND...
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES DEFINITELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WHEN HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE LOWEST...MOISTURE APPEARS GREATEST...AND LIFT
IS BEST WITH THE REMNANT FRONT OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THIS FORECAST
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH DEEP
CONVECTION AT ALL GIVEN THE STABILITY AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
MODEL FORECASTS. GFSX MOS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
EACH DAY IN TERMS OF CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND AS A RESULT AM
RELUCTANT TO MAKE A STARK CHANGE FROM SOLID CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FROM THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DAY TO DAY...AND EACH DAY THE RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
LIE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE HIGH ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST AND OVERALL MOISTURE TENDS TO BE HIGHER WEST.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS ALOFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HOURS OF SUN
INCREASES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO WARM. BY SUNDAY...
1000-850MB THICKNESSES...ALONG WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...FORECAST
HIGHS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK AT LEAST INTO
THE LOWER 90S...AND MID 90S COULD RETURN TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
PIEDMONT FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY...MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD
RISE BACK TO NEAR 100 PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND U.S. 1 AND
INTERSTATE 95. EARLIER...80S SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 SATURDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SANDHILLS...UNDER MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
FREQUENTLY ADVERSE AND HIGHLY VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT INT/GSO AND FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. OF LARGER CONCERN ARE THE AREAS
OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NC. EACH FORECAST SITE IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODIC SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BASED BELOW 1
THOUSAND FEET AGL THROUGH 13Z-14Z. COVERAGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE GREATEST AT 09Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUD SHOULD LIFT AND
PARTIALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR WHILE VSBYS GO TO VFR BY 15Z... THEN
EXPECT BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO SLOWLY TREND TO VFR BY 18Z-19Z AT ALL
LOCATIONS. BUT ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...
AND ALL CENTRAL NC FORECAST SITES WILL SEE AN EQUAL (HIGH) CHANCE OF
SLOW-MOVING MEANDERING STORMS FROM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TOWARD THE EAST...
HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL FORM ON OUTFLOWS... YIELDING
OVERALL ERRATIC MOVEMENTS. THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE EXPANSIVE
AND EVOLVING... AND THEREFORE THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE SAFELY
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z. AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD (AFTER 06Z)... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR
A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING... AND NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME AND
EVENING STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY... HOWEVER THE RISK OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER EACH
LATE-NIGHT THROUGH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AIDED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING DOWN THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
INDICATES THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE MID LEVEL CAPPING IS NOT AS STRONG AS THAT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. THUS INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOOKING AT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER AT WILLISTON
06-10 UTC. CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING A MENTION OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ONLY INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 87 71 87 70 / 60 50 50 60
CLARKSVILLE 86 69 88 69 / 60 50 50 50
CROSSVILLE 83 67 83 68 / 60 50 60 60
COLUMBIA 88 71 87 70 / 60 60 60 60
LAWRENCEBURG 87 71 87 70 / 60 60 60 60
WAVERLY 86 70 87 69 / 60 50 50 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT STAYS DRAPED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0730 EDT UPDATE...INSTABILITY SEEN IN MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL NJ TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NJ. LATEST RAPID REFRESH CYCLE CAPTURES THIS. LAST
06Z GFS AND NAM STILL SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS OVER NW SECTION OF
THE AREA. 10Z RR AND 06Z NAM/GFS SOUNDING SHOW VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY THOUGH. THUS HAVE PRESS BACK THE MENTION OF ANY
CONVECTION TO JUST THE AREAS NW OF NYC.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WHILE THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...CREATING JUST ENOUGH FORCING
THAT COULD HELP IGNITE A STORM OR TWO. TO ASSIST...A THERMAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN
ALLOWING FOR A SEA BREEZE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...WITH INITIALLY NE FLOW SHIFTING TO A SE
FLOW. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING ABOUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
RESTRICT THE SHORES FROM REACHING HIGHS MUCH WARMER THAN THE MID
80S...WHILE INLAND AREAS COULD SEE IN THE UPPER 80S. MET AND MAV
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO JUST USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS AS WELL AS DEW
PTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF HEATING. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AROUND 12Z WED...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ONCE AGAIN JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE AN ISO
SHOWER OR TSTORM. BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES IN FACT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE ANOTHER WARMING DAY INTO THE
80S...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMIZED WED AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST...LEADING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE...AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WILL RESULT IN DRYING IN THE VERTICAL DURING
THE DAY WED AND CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCT
OUT. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO TUES HIGHS WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING IN THE MID TEENS...AS WELL AS LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT BEING SIMILAR...DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND...TO
UPPER 60S NEAR THE CITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE POLAR JET WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD - A
TYPICAL MID SUMMER PERIOD OF WEATHER. NO STRONG MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FEATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA...THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TYPICAL COASTAL SEA BREEZES EXPECTED WITH
A SLOW INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...THOUGH STILL COMFORTABLE IN
THE LOWER 60S.
WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MOVING IN ON MONDAY. BASED ON THIS...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NWP SYSTEMS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE
TROUGHING FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COMING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. 10/00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN 09/12Z GEFS MEMBERS WITH OPERATION
ECMWF SUGGESTING A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE THAT TRACKS FASTER YET AND
TO THE NORTH. 10/00Z CMC GLOBAL IS ALSO FASTER THAN GFS...BUT 09/12Z
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION. THUS THE TREND IS SUGGESTING
THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY.
WILL DIVIDE UP PREVIOUS FCST PCPN TO FOCUS ON DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THEN HAVE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC
FOR SAT AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR. KEPT 30 POP FOR SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
PUT LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT IN SLIGHT CHANCE (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
LESS FAVORED.) CLIMATOLOGICAL AFTN CONVECTION CONTINUED IN FCST FOR
MONDAY AFTN WITH UNCERTAINTY OF STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 85 TO 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE NY/NJ METRO AREA WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LOW CHANCE FOR NYC HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE.
LIGHT NE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE E/SE AT 5 TO 10 KT BY 15Z. SEABREEZE WILL THEN IMPACT MOST
TERMINALS WITH A VERY SIMILAR TIMING TO MON...GENERALLY 17Z TO
21Z. AN ISOLD -SHRA IS POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE THIS AFT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THE EXACT TIMING.
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN E/NE WIND TO REESTABLISH ITSELF.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RELATIVELY
LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS/JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JST
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED. LATEST HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WEST/NORTH
TODAY... BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION AT ANY SITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES WITH THERMAL FIELDS. THE NAM SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
WITH THE GFS TOO COOL...SO A COMPROMISE SHOULD WORK WELL WITH
TEMPS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO CENTRAL/NE ND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG...BUT FORCING REMAINS WEAK. THERE HAS BEEN A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THIS SHEAR AXIS
THOUGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FIRING
ATTM BETWEEN BIS/JMS. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LOWER POPS INTO THE WEST
THIS MORNING PERHAPS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS ABOUT
3-4C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK LLJ OF ABOUT 20KT AND 850MB CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET WITH
A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS WITH SLOWLY INCREASING THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS.
ON WED...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND BY AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NORTH AND
WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH INCREASING 925MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +30C. THE NAM SFC TEMPS ARE INTO THE MID 90S IN
THE SOUTH...BUT WON/T GO THIS WARM BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A HOT DAY. PROJECTED HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE INTO THE MID 90S FOR
MOST AREAS...SO IF DEWPOINTS RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED...OR TEMPS ARE
A BIT WARMER...THEN WE COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR THU...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND
EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. MLCAPES
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY THU EVENING. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL EXIST NEAR ANY STORMS. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
PRECLUDE TOO MUCH SEVERE WEATHER...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN
FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND SOME KIND OF SFC BOUNDARY. SLOW STORM
MOTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
GROUND FOR MOST AREAS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING ISSUES BUT ALWAYS
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS
INCLUDED A 5% SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH ABOVE THINKING.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY...
DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A SLOW MOVING
SHORT-WAVE ROTATES AROUND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SOUTHWEST CONUS
MONSOONAL RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CRASHES ONSHORE...BUT EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...BUT WILL
INTRODUCE 20-30 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANY WEAK WAVE ALOFT
MAY PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN AIRMASS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE....MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS MORNING AND
DUMPED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER SOME AREAS...RADAR ESTIMATES
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOP OUT AROUND 2.5 INCHES. IN THE PAST
HOUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE SEEN SLIGHTLY MORE SUNSHINE
THAN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE AND ARE REPORTING TEMPS IN
THE MID-80S CURRENTLY. THUS THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
223 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS DRAPED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NY STATE AND
FAR N CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND SBCAPE 500 J/KG. HRRR INDICATES THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC TOWARD
EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY HOLD ON INTO SOUTHERN CT AFTER DARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED POP ACCORDINGLY...WITH SCT COVERAGE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SW CT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ISOLD COVERAGE EWARD TO
THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLD AT MOST...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY MEAGER CAPE ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN
NYC METRO...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PASS THROUGH WED
MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO THERE COULD
BE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER AS
MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY FAIRLY
SHALLOW.
DESPITE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMIZED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
LOWS WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF TONIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 70 IN NYC METRO...TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE POLAR JET WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD - A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PERIOD OF WEATHER. NO STRONG MAJOR
SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA...THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TYPICAL COASTAL SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...THOUGH STILL
COMFORTABLE IN THE LOWER 60S.
WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND MOVING IN ON MONDAY. BASED ON THIS...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NWP SYSTEMS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE
TROUGHING FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COMING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. 10/00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN 09/12Z GEFS MEMBERS WITH OPERATION
ECMWF SUGGESTING A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE THAT TRACKS FASTER YET AND
TO THE NORTH. 10/00Z CMC GLOBAL IS ALSO FASTER THAN GFS...BUT 09/12Z
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION. THUS THE TREND IS SUGGESTING
THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
WILL DIVIDE UP PREVIOUS FCST PRECIPITATION TO FOCUS ON DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THEN HAVE LOWERED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. KEPT 30 POP FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PUT LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE (CLIMATOLOGICALLY LESS FAVORED.) CLIMATOLOGICAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CONTINUED IN FCST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH UNCERTAINTY
OF STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 85 TO 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE NY/NJ METRO AREA WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LOW CHANCE FOR NYC HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PASSING MID-DECK
IMPACTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SHRA ACROSS TERMINALS N/W OF NYC THIS EVENING -
BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NE-ENE FLOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM S TO N. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE
OCCURRING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXACT TIMING.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY VARY BY 1 TO 2 HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET AS A RELATIVELY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS COULD DELIVER ISOLD AMTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...QUIET THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MON AFTERNOONS THAT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/JST
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO REMAIN
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH THE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DACKS. THEY REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW GIVEN THE CAPPING OBSERVED IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND 600MB
BUT TAPPING INTO CHILLY AIR THAT HAS RESULTED IN SOME HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. H2O VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
BECOMING STRUNG OUT WHILE ANOTHER ONE UPSTREAM WAS APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS DRIER...THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND INTO OUR ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO NOT TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING POPS/WX WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER THE DACKS. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND VERY LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ACTUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL MIGRATE E OF THE
REGION...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF DECREASING POPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFINING THEM MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP/PERSIST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
AND COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TROF WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE SOMEWHAT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIET...AND THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED ON
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND...AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MERGES WITH THE BROADER
BERMUDA HIGH. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO CLOSE THE
WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND U50S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE
VALLEYS. H850 TEMPS RISE TO 16-17C BY FRI WITH INCREASING LOWER AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO
M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...ENSEMBLES
AND HPC ALL HINT AT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY N/NE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN AN INCREASING THREAT BY LATE
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...EXCEPT SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY MAY KEEP THE L90S LESS WIDESPREAD
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/CANADIAN GGEM/ECMWF...AND HPC FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. PWATS
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GEFS INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS SHOWS A SHARPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH FOR SUNDAY
WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE
POOLING INTO THE M60S TO L70S COUPLED WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES /IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES/ FOR SOME BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME SLOW
MOVERS WITH THE WEAKER DEEP SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LEAN
TOWARDS PULSE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...CHANCE POPS
WERE USED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH U50S
TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND A WEAK COOL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE LEANED CLOSER TO HPC WITH THE REGION STILL
IN A WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT.
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH
TEMPS A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PERHAPS PCPN TRENDING
TOWARDS NORMAL WITH THE WEEKEND-MONDAY POTENTIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME CLOUDS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD REACH KGFL BETWEEN 19Z-21Z...AND HAVE THEREFORE
INDICATED A VCSH GROUP. SOME THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
MENTION. ELSEWHERE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES.
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z/WED.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...ESP AT KGFL.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 5-10 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
SHOWERS AT KGFL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX. SOME PATCHY BR/FG IS POSSIBLE THU
AND FRI MORNINGS.
SAT-SUN...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO SLOWLY INCREASING.
LATEST EVALUATION OF THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 300 FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE DRY FUELS ARE INCREASING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY...AND RECOVER TO BETWEEN 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...AND CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY...OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. MOST
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...BGM/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION LATE THIS WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRIEFLY NEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF WEAKENING
COLD FRONTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH OR MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT WX PATN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS
ORIENTED W-E AND SITUATED JUST N OF OUR FCST AREA...WHILE THE
Q-STNRY FRONT BNDRY REMAINS WELL S OVER NC. SOME MARGINAL INSTBY
EXTDS WELL N OF THE FRONT INTO THE SRN PART OF OUR AREA...DELMARVA
AND FAR SRN NJ. SOME SCT CNVTN HAS BEEN DVLPG IN THIS AREA BUT SO
FAR THE TOPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LTG. SLTG CHC TO CHC
POPS ARE MAINTAINED FOR THIS AREA THIS EVE.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS THE FAR N...IE POCONOS AND FAR NW NJ. SHWRS
AND ISOLD T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTBY
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY/PA. SOME MODELS INCLUDING HRRR AND RAP ARE SUGG
THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH FAR NRN PART OF FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN OR
EARLY EVE.
CNVTN...SHALLOW AND NOT SO SHALLOW...SHOULD END FAIRLY SOON AFTER
SUNSET AND DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE OVERALL PATN IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WILL BE MODERATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM
THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS. A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN
SHWRS/T-STORMS IS INDICATED N AND S...SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MARGINAL
INSTBY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OR TIMING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS 500MB INITIALIZATION HAS CAUGHT UP WITH THE PRESENT
SYSTEM OR THE DP/DT OF A FASTER EXIT OF THE 500MB TROF OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA HAS MADE IT RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON. EITHER
WAY BEST 500MB INITIALIZATION BY IT VS THE WRF-NMMB WE HAVE SEEN
FOR A WHILE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BETTER THAN
THE WRF-NMMB WITH ITS 850MB AND 925MB INITIALIZATION.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS SQUEEZING THE TIMING POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
IS FORCING MORE OF AN END AROUND TO THE STEWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS (A PLETHORA OF 850MB DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE
15C) THAT MAY INITIALLY GET SHUNTED AROUND THE SFC HIGH BEFORE
ARRIVING AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVE. THUS THIS LONG TERM
PACKAGE HAS DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN CHANCES BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS THE FCST PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE PCPN ARRIVES. WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
AS TO HOW HOT IT WILL GET (IN TERMS OF REACHING ADVY OR WARNING
CRITERIA, MORE 90S SEEM LIKELY). DEPENDS UPON HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS
IS AROUND, WOULD IMAGINE ONCE THE CAP IS GONE THAT TSTMS SHOULD
POP RATHER EASILY ON THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
DRYING EARLY NEXT WEEK OFF THE 12Z RUN, WANT TO SEE MORE
CONTINUITY BEFORE NIBBLING ON THAT BAIT.
AS FOR DAY TO DAY: AFT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO BE DONE, SO NO POPS ARE INCLUDED. NAM MOS HANGS
ONTO CLOUDS WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN EXORBITANT AMOUNT OF TIME ON WED
NGT VS ITS OWN FCST SOUNDING MOISTURE. SO WE HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD GFS MOS MOST PLACES WITH CLEARER SKIES FOR MINS.
A SIMILAR SOUNDING FCST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WITH EVEN STRONGER CAPPING SOUTH. NORTH
ITS BORDERLINE AGAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP NOT HOLDING.
BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST SFC MOISTURE (ALBEIT BASED ON TODAY`S
RUN) IS LIKELY OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY OFF THE GFS MODEL. THUS THE
CAP MAY WORK FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. COVERAGE ATTM APPEARS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING AROUND A 1F BUMP UP FROM
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS, PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THE
WARMER CHOICES OF STAT GUIDANCE ARE GIVING US.
NO POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE GOING WITH THE RADIATIONAL STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MINS. WE SUPPOSE THAT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MIGHT MAR THAT DECISION. BUT THE OVERALL MODEL TREND OF
RETURN FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWER AND THUS SO WILL WE AND GO COOLER WITH
THE MINS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
SPEAKING OF SLOWER, WE COULD NEARLY CUT AND PASTE OUR THURSDAY
THOUGHTS FROM YESTERDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SHOULD START
BACKING UP AND MIGHT BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE CAPPING NORTH THAN SOUTH. THAT PLUS
TIMING ERRORS, WE KEPT LOW CHANCES JUST LATE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY, FCST 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES AND 925MB TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SO ARE OUR HIGH TEMPS. LEFTOVER CONVECTION MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR
CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN.
TREATING THE WEEKEND AS ONE, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SUNDAY ATTM HAS
THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THAN SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW SHOULD BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA WITHOUT ANY FCST CAP TO STOP IT. FCST PWAT
VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES, SO THE FIRST ORDER
OF CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER SIDE, FFG BECAUSE
WE HAVE BEEN BONE DRY (AND HOT) MOST OF THIS MONTH IS AT THE LEGAL
LIMIT OF 3" PER HOUR IN NEARLY OUR ENTIRE CWA. REGARDLESS SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN HOW MOIST THE
COLUMN WILL BE. THIS STARTS STRETCHING THE SCIENCE (OR MAYBE ITS
STRETCHED TOO MUCH ALREADY), BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE
LOCALIZED AND OF THE WET MICROBURST TYPE THAN THE PAST TWO
WEEKENDS. WE DID NOT SWAY MUCH FROM STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS. WE COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS IF
THERE IS LESS DEBRIS CLOUDS AND OR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVERALL.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO HAS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, BUT
SLOWS ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION VS THE GFS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER UNTIL
BETTER CONSENSUS OR HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SOLUTION BECOMES
APPARENT. WHILE MAX TEMPS MAY BE COMPARABLE TO THE WEEKEND, UNDER
THIS SCENARIO DEW POINTS WOULD BE LOWER AND THUS A SLIGHTLY LESS
OPPRESSIVE AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST...ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO VEER SOMEWHAT TO THE SE
DURING THE AFTERN. SOME LIGHT FOG LATE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
IS POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY AT RDG/MIV.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OR HAZE THURSDAY MORNING
AT OUTLYING TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START,
GENERAL LOWERING OF CONDITIONS IN INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE FCST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
BECOMING SELY NEAR THE SHORE AND DEL BAY IN THE AFTN DUE TO
SEA-BREEZE/BAY-BREEZE EFFECTS. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
S OF LITTLE EGG ARE FCST TO INCREASE SMWHT WED AFTN AS A FRONTAL
WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES NE OFF OF CAPE HAT.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK. THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD WEAKER SFC LOW SOLUTIONS, SO WE CAPPED SEAS
EARLY AT AROUND 4 FEET. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON THE WEEKEND, WAVE WATCH BRINGS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SEAS TO OUR OCEAN ZONES. AS OFTEN IS THE CASE, THE GUIDANCE
IS TOO BULLISH WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR MASSES, SO WE KEPT SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET ON THE WEEKEND ALSO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 12TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT PHILADELPHIA. TUESDAY`S HIGH SO FAR HAS BEEN 89.
EVEN THOUGH PHILADELPHIA JUST BARELY REACHED 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY,
THE CURRENT STRING TIES FOR THE FOURTH LONGEST ON RECORD.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER
AT PHILADELPHIA.
18 DAYS ENDING ON AUGUST 15, 1988
17 DAYS ENDING ON AUGUST 5, 1995
13 DAYS ENDING ON SEPTEMBER 5, 1953
12 DAYS ENDING ON JULY 6, 1901
12 DAYS ENDING ON JULY 23, 1952
12 DAYS ENDING ON AUGUST 3, 1999
12 DAYS ENDING ON JULY 9, 2012
A FORMAL RECORD EVENT REPORT (RERPHL) WILL BE ISSUED FOR
PHILADELPHIA ONCE WE ARE CERTAIN THAT THE STRING HAS ENDED.
RERILG AND RERRDG WERE ISSUED FOR WILMINGTON AND READING. EACH
HAD A STRING OF 11 DAYS WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 90
DEGREES THAT ENDED YESTERDAY AND MADE THEIR TOP TEN LIST. YOU CAN
FIND THEM ON OUR WEB SITE UNDER TEXT PRODUCTS...CLIMATE SUB-SECTION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...AMC/GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/GIGI/HEAVENER
CLIMATE...DELISI/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND AS A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLT ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL HEATNIG THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT WITH NO FORCING AND LOTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING
POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HWOEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR
ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. I SEE SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH CLD BASES 6 TO 7 KFT WITH JUST
ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF ITH.
AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. I SEE LITTLE IF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KELM GOING BY PERSISTENCE OF WHICH THERE WAS LITTLE FOG THERE THIS
MRNG. CONFIDENCE LEVEL WAS MEDIUM AT THIS. IT WILL DEPEND ON IF
MUCH RAIN FALLS AT KELM. REST OF TAFS SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR WED
AM...SEE SCT CU FORMING WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND AS A MOIST AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACVTY IS REACHING THE GROUND BUT
ASSUMING QUITE A BIT OF IT IS...SO UPPED POPS TO SCT CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG A BNDRY THAT WAS DEVELOPING FROM
ABOUT RME TO BTWN ITH AND BGM TO ELM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TWD NY STATE AND PA. THIS WAVE WAS
APPARENTLY SUPPLYING ENUF LIFT DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WAS
SHEARING OUT AS PER WATER VAPOR. THE WAVE WAS APPARENTLT ORGANIZING
A SFC BNDRY AND INITIATING CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CAPE...GENERALLY BTWN 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. THE 0-6
KM WAS IMPRESSIVE RUNNING CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS BUT THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM WERE VERY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR CONVECTION BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE CONTS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST BELIEVE ACVTY WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN PA/POCONOS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHRT WAVE PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
PA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL AND WILL TWEAK POPS
AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE BASED ON HRRR. BELIEVE
THUNDER WILL BE ISLD THOUGH AS SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
REALLY NOT THAT HIGH RUNNING MAINLY BELOW 25 KFT.
ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FOG E OF BGM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN THAN TO
THE W BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY AND THE
CHEMUNG RIVER WAS RUNNING VERY LOW. HENCE THERE WON/T BE AS MUCH
WATER VAPOR OFF THE CHEMUNG VS THE SUSQUEHANNA WHICH IS RUNNING A
BIT HIGHER. THIS IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING RELATIVELY DRY SPELLS
AND WE SEE MORE FOG IN THE VALLEYS E OF BGM...VS ELM AND VCNTY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ESP IN FROM NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS AS ANTHR SHRT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
LL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SWRLY INTO NRN PA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHRT WAVE WED PM AND LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF MORE ISLD SHRA AND TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. I SEE LESS THE FARTHER N YOU GO INTO C NY. SO HIGHER
POPS FOR NE PA/CATSKILLS WED PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER
THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 HEIGHTS RISE AS MEAN TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING
A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. RAIN FREE WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE DUE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ESSENTIALLY A MID
LEVEL CAP DUE TO FAIRLY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
DRY AND SEASONABLE TO START THEN WARMING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY TO MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AS A TROF
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP WITH MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A DECENT SHORT WAVE FOR SAT AFTN SO THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC
OF RAIN FOR THE WHOLE WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW AND MID 60S. LATE MONDAY MIGHT A SHORT WAVE COMES IN AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF GETS TO MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. I SEE SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH CLD BASES 6 TO 7 KFT WITH JUST
ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF ITH.
AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. I SEE LITTLE IF ANY VALLEY FOG AT
KELM GOING BY PERSISTENCE OF WHICH THERE WAS LITTLE FOG THERE THIS
MRNG. CONFIDENCE LEVEL WAS MEDIUM AT THIS. IT WILL DEPEND ON IF
MUCH RAIN FALLS AT KELM. REST OF TAFS SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR WED
AM...SEE SCT CU FORMING WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH FRI...VFR.
SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1151 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH THE
TAF PD. THUS...UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDE SPREAD RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD 12Z. AMENDMENTS
FOR CKV AND CSV WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED AS MANUAL DIAL IN IS
STILL REQUIRED UFN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE....MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS MORNING AND
DUMPED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER SOME AREAS...RADAR ESTIMATES
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOP OUT AROUND 2.5 INCHES. IN THE PAST
HOUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE SEEN SLIGHTLY MORE SUNSHINE
THAN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE AND ARE REPORTING TEMPS IN
THE MID-80S CURRENTLY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND A DECREASE FOR THE NASHVILLE
AREA AND NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE....MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS MORNING AND
DUMPED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER SOME AREAS...RADAR ESTIMATES
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOP OUT AROUND 2.5 INCHES. IN THE PAST
HOUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE SEEN SLIGHTLY MORE SUNSHINE
THAN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE AND ARE REPORTING TEMPS IN
THE MID-80S CURRENTLY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND A DECREASE FOR THE NASHVILLE
AREA AND NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF FRONT. THIS HAS
MADE FOR LOW LCL`S AND LOW CEILINGS HEIGHTS. WITH THE JUICED UP
AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO THUNDER AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
WENT BASICALLY WITH VCTS BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD CRANK UP A LITTLE MORE DUE TO HEATING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TWIST IN
THE CLOUD FIELD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN THE LATEST H2O VAPOR
LOOP. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
GULF REGION INTO THE MID STATE AND UP AGAINST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN NASHVILLE METRO HAVING
GOTTEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND TROPICAL
OUTSIDE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE. SEEMS ALMOST HARD TO BELIEVE HOW DRASTICALLY THE
SHIFT TO A WET PATTERN HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WAVE JUST LAST WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS PROG THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GFS SHOWS PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
STATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CLOCK THROUGHOUT THE MID STATE EACH DAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR TODAY...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
REJUVENATE AREAWIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT HIGHS NEAR MAV MOS VALUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEHWAT LOWER ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL PINGING ON A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR WEST AND
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS SUCH AS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED...AND THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SITUATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS STAYING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THEIR
ENTIRE RUNS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11