Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/09/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
246 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THIS MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE AREA
WERE ABOUT 170-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING A LITTLE FOR SUN...AS THE
MONSOON MSTR PLUME REMAINS OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUN.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE HYR TRRN TODAY AND WITH
THE ABUNDANT MSTR OVR THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY...PROBABLY
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WL PROBABLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THEN BY AFTERNOON SUN...WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING A THREAT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ON SUN...WITH THE HYR TRRN AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL RUNS AND SEE WHICH AREAS THEY ARE SHOWING THE HIGHEST HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POTENTIAL. A WATCH WL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
WHAT AREAS GET HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THE NSSL 4KM WRF IS SHOWING THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY BEING BETWEEN ABOUT 7 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM.
.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A DRIER MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A SLOW
MOVING UPPER VORT MAX WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL SEND A BOUNDARY SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND TURN FLOW
MORE NORTHEASTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO
NEAR LAMAR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL. MODELS VARY ON WHEN THEY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AT
LEAST LOW POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BECOME EMINENT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH SHIFTS EAST INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
RETURN TO DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRINGS A
RETURN TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH FORCES THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE BACK INTO THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF PCPN WL DECREASE...BUT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ060-061-065>068-
081-084-085.
&&
$$
28/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
459 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND
PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
WITH SEVERAL WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC, WE ARE GOING TO ADD A FEW COUNTIES
CLOSER TO PHILADELPHIA IN THE EXITING WATCH, NO EXTENTION OF TIME.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AND UNCHANGED AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR
AREA TONIGHT.
THE MCS MOVED ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ONLY SOME LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. A DECENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW
DEGREES AND BRING A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND BUT IT WON`T LAST LONG.
THE EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WE WILL REMAIN VERY WARM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 70S BUT IN THE
URBAN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER CLOSER TO 80.
THE FIRST SHOT OF CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AIRMASS
DOMINATED BY CIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. WHILE THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MECHANICAL TRIGGER TO RELEASE THE INSTABILITY...AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE SINCE THE FIRST SHOT.
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION...WHICH WAS THE
REMNANT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA WHERE CIN HAS BEEN REMOVED...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS
SHOWED THAT BULK SHEAR INCREASING AS WELL...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACCOMPANIES THE CONVECTION.
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTH LEHIGH
VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BY ABOUT
2200 UTC. BY THAT TIME...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE SHED MOST
OF ITS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP. THE INCREASING SHEAR SUGGESTS MULTIPLE CELL
STRUCTURE (AS WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR NOW).
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CAPE PROFILE...INCREASING WIND
SHEAR...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. LARGE HAIL MAY BE A TOUGH SELL...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15000 FEET AND HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO COOL OFF A BIT AND
BEGIN TO DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
90S FOR ONE MORE DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS
DELMARVA, WILL HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE A BIT LONGER AND HAVE ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABOUT PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
VALUES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THEN MORE SO TO POINTS FROM PHILADELPHIA ON
SOUTH. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS NOT AS SOLID AS THE WRF-NMMB AND ITS
VERIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION WAS OFF TO A POOR START. COMBINED
WITH NO CORROBORATIVE SUPPORT FROM THE CAN GGEM OR UKMET, THE LONG
TERM LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF THAN THE GFS THRU THE END OF ITS
MODEL RUN AND MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THE REST
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN SUMMARY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND THEN A LIKELY BACKING OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN ITS JULY AND
HOW STUBBORNLY HOT THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD STRUGGLING SOLUTION TO VERIFY. SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THE FORECAST OUTCOME NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWEST CENTRAL. WHILE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING, THE BACKING FLOW SHOULD MAKE IT MORE
HUMID LATE IN THE WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MAX
TEMPS TO REACH 90F.
THE MESOSCALE MODELING DID NOT HAVE THE INITIAL MCS AROUND NY/NJ/PA
AND THE HRRR VERSIONS THAT DID ARE TOO ROBUST BEYOND THEM. THEY ALL
HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION ASIDE, THE SLOWING FRONT AND
STILL AMPLY HOT AIR MASS SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST CONTINUE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT SEEING UPSTREAM CAPPING BEYOND TODAY FOR
THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE LESSER CHANCES OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
MIN TEMPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY WARM AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT LOSING ALL
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING LESS OF A CAP SOUTH THAN
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE DELINEATION NEAR THE PA TURNPIKE AND
INTERSTATE 195 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CLOSE TO WHERE POPS WERE CUT OFF.
POPS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH IN DELMARVA WITH LESS
CAPPING PREDICTED AND HIER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE SUN THAN WHAT THE GFS IS
PREDICTING AND THUS MAX TEMPS LEANED TOWARD HIGHER NAM MOS.
ITS PRETTY MUCH A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHERE THE CAPPING OF CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE PHL
METRO AREA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H250 JET REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH, NOT SO NORTH ALONG THE HIER TERRAIN AS THE
GFS HAS DEPICTED ON TUESDAY DAY. BECAUSE OF CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH MINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WE REALLY DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT BRING MORE
CLARITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BACK MORE TOWARD OUR
CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WE DID UP POPS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WAS A BLEND OF LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE ON OUR OWN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND MAKES IT
WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN HAZE, AS THE HOT, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING IT
WILL JUST CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT IT MAY
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...REMAINING CONVECTION MAY AGAIN CAUSE SCATTERED
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN SITES. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THAT ARE FROM KPHL SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CONTINUES ON ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE
OCEAN. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
AS LONG AS NO SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF SUCH A LOW DEVELOPING ARE SMALL,
BUT THE CHANCES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
AND CAUSING SOME RISE IN SEAS IS PRETTY GOOD AS THE PERIOD WEARS
ON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXES FOR OUR EIGHT CLI SITES FOR JULY 7TH...
SO FAR NEW RECORDS WERE SET AT GEORGETOWN AND ATLANTIC CITY AND
READING TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH.
KACY 98 1986,2010
KPHL 103 2010
KILG 103 2010
KABE 99 2010
KTTN 103 2010
KGED 97 2010
KRDG 101 2010
KMPO 95 1908
BELOW ARE ALL TIME RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR LCD SITES...
KABE 105 7/3/1966
KACY 106 6/28/1969
KPHL 106 8/7/1918
KILG 107 8/7/1918
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012>014-016-020>027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HAYES/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
CLIMATE...KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND
PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
WITH SEVERAL WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AND UNCHANGED AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR
AREA TONIGHT.
THE MCS MOVED ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ONLY SOME LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. A DECENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW
DEGREES AND BRING A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND BUT IT WON`T LAST LONG.
THE EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WE WILL REMAIN VERY WARM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 70S BUT IN THE
URBAN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER CLOSER TO 80.
THE FIRST SHOT OF CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AIRMASS
DOMINATED BY CIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. WHILE THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MECHANICAL TRIGGER TO RELEASE THE INSTABILITY...AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE SINCE THE FIRST SHOT.
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION...WHICH WAS THE
REMNANT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA WHERE CIN HAS BEEN REMOVED...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS
SHOWED THAT BULK SHEAR INCREASING AS WELL...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACCOMPANIES THE CONVECTION.
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTH LEHIGH
VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BY ABOUT
2200 UTC. BY THAT TIME...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE SHED MOST
OF ITS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP. THE INCREASING SHEAR SUGGESTS MULTIPLE CELL
STRUCTURE (AS WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR NOW).
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CAPE PROFILE...INCREASING WIND
SHEAR...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. LARGE HAIL MAY BE A TOUGH SELL...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15000 FEET AND HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO COOL OFF A BIT AND
BEGIN TO DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
90S FOR ONE MORE DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS
DELMARVA, WILL HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE A BIT LONGER AND HAVE ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABOUT PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
VALUES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THEN MORE SO TO POINTS FROM PHILADELPHIA ON
SOUTH. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS NOT AS SOLID AS THE WRF-NMMB AND ITS
VERIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION WAS OFF TO A POOR START. COMBINED
WITH NO CORROBORATIVE SUPPORT FROM THE CAN GGEM OR UKMET, THE LONG
TERM LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF THAN THE GFS THRU THE END OF ITS
MODEL RUN AND MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THE REST
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN SUMMARY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND THEN A LIKELY BACKING OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN ITS JULY AND
HOW STUBBORNLY HOT THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD STRUGGLING SOLUTION TO VERIFY. SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THE FORECAST OUTCOME NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWEST CENTRAL. WHILE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING, THE BACKING FLOW SHOULD MAKE IT MORE
HUMID LATE IN THE WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MAX
TEMPS TO REACH 90F.
THE MESOSCALE MODELING DID NOT HAVE THE INITIAL MCS AROUND NY/NJ/PA
AND THE HRRR VERSIONS THAT DID ARE TOO ROBUST BEYOND THEM. THEY ALL
HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION ASIDE, THE SLOWING FRONT AND
STILL AMPLY HOT AIR MASS SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST CONTINUE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT SEEING UPSTREAM CAPPING BEYOND TODAY FOR
THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE LESSER CHANCES OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
MIN TEMPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY WARM AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT LOSING ALL
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING LESS OF A CAP SOUTH THAN
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE DELINEATION NEAR THE PA TURNPIKE AND
INTERSTATE 195 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CLOSE TO WHERE POPS WERE CUT OFF.
POPS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH IN DELMARVA WITH LESS
CAPPING PREDICTED AND HIER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE SUN THAN WHAT THE GFS IS
PREDICTING AND THUS MAX TEMPS LEANED TOWARD HIGHER NAM MOS.
ITS PRETTY MUCH A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHERE THE CAPPING OF CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE PHL
METRO AREA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H250 JET REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH, NOT SO NORTH ALONG THE HIER TERRAIN AS THE
GFS HAS DEPICTED ON TUESDAY DAY. BECAUSE OF CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH MINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WE REALLY DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT BRING MORE
CLARITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BACK MORE TOWARD OUR
CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WE DID UP POPS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WAS A BLEND OF LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE ON OUR OWN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND MAKES IT
WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN HAZE, AS THE HOT, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING IT
WILL JUST CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT IT MAY
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...REMAINING CONVECTION MAY AGAIN CAUSE SCATTERED
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN SITES. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THAT ARE FROM KPHL SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CONTINUES ON ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE
OCEAN. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
AS LONG AS NO SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF SUCH A LOW DEVELOPING ARE SMALL,
BUT THE CHANCES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
AND CAUSING SOME RISE IN SEAS IS PRETTY GOOD AS THE PERIOD WEARS
ON.
&&
BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXES FOR OUR EIGHT CLI SITES FOR JULY 7TH...
SO FAR NEW RECORDS WERE SET AT GEORGETOWN AND ATLANTIC CITY AND
READING TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH.
KACY 98 1986,2010
KPHL 103 2010
KILG 103 2010
KABE 99 2010
KTTN 103 2010
KGED 97 2010
KRDG 101 2010
KMPO 95 1908
BELOW ARE ALL TIME RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR LCD SITES...
KABE 105 7/3/1966
KACY 106 6/28/1969
KPHL 106 8/7/1918
KILG 107 8/7/1918
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012>014-016-020>027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HAYES/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
CLIMATE...KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED COVERAGE TOO MINIMAL TO
INCLUDE VCSH FOR ANY TERMINAL FORECASTS. HOWEVER, WITH DIURNAL
HEATING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND
AND GENERALLY PUSH WESTWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST FROM 17Z-03Z. VCSH IS WARRANTED FOR KAPF DURING
THIS PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ESE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS, EXCEPT AT KAPF, WHERE WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW AROUND 17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012/
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENT CLUSTER OF TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE
COLLIER COUNTY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
KAPF. AFTERNOON SHRAS/TSRAS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. BETTER
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD AGAIN BE ALONG THE INTERIOR TO THE
GULF COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST HRRR/WRF/NAM MODEL REACTIVITIES GENERALLY REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AND INDICATE MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE DEVELOPING INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS
THE GULF/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO MERGE. THE HRRR IS THE
MORE BULLISH SOLUTION AND GENERATES SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OVER
THESE AREAS. PROVIDED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...MINUS 8 DEG C AT 500 MB AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE SEA BREEZES MERGING COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATER TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE S FL PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CYCLE REMAINS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING WNW ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SE. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND GENERALLY DAMPENS THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
AND SLIGHT ENHANCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AROUND THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE BAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 91 77 / 20 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 40 20
MIAMI 91 80 92 78 / 20 20 50 20
NAPLES 91 76 91 76 / 30 30 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
620 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
07/21Z RAP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE CAP IS
PROVING TOO MUCH FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. A FEW
BRIEF...LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS...BUT HAVE NOT REALLY AMOUNTED TO TOO
MUCH WITH NO LIGHTNING DETECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND WITH
ONLY VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SUSPECT
THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. HAVE UPDATED THE
TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
THE CIRRUS BAND TO THE NORTH LOOKS RATHER THIN ON SATELLITE SO
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE. THE
REMAINING GRIDDED PARAMETERS LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THEREFORE...THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH NEAR 90 DEGREES EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND THE SEABREEZE COULD ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...BUT A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE MID 70S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY. CHANCES
APPEAR SLIGHTLY BETTER TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY...AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP INLAND AND BOUNDARIES INTERACT
WITH THE SEABREEZE. ALSO...INSTABILITY FACTORS APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL
APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED TO OUR WEST WHILE A SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NC/SC AND STALLS LATE WEEK. ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD
KEEP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SEA BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15-20
KT TONIGHT...VEERING TOWARD THE W/SW AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
LATE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4
FT BEYOND 20 NM.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
INLAND SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE USUAL LATE NIGHT SURGE WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
AROUND SUNRISE. GENERALLY SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET. NO SCAS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR/JHP
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL FIRE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE
OF SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR QUINCY
ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON 15Z WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS CENTER OF HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS A RESULT...THINK
GREATEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND ZERO POPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. FURTHER WEST ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOST MODELS KEEP THINGS COMPLETELY DRY...THE 12Z HRRR HINTS AT A
FEW STORMS AROUND THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO CARRY ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET...WITH READINGS GENERALLY REACHING THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NE AT 5
TO 10KT DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON 12Z NAM FROPA TIMING...HAVE
INTRODUCED WIND SHIFT TO THE NE AT KPIA BY 02Z...THEN FURTHER
SOUTH TO KSPI AND KDEC BY 05Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED MINIMAL
AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AFTER 13Z.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT THE PAST FIVE DAYS SINCE TUE.
LEANED TOWARD WARMER MET HIGHS WHICH ARE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO
HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OF 100-108F AND HEAT
INDICES PEAKING NEAR 110F IN THE AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE
LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION RANGING FROM 104-109F ALL SET
IN 1936. HEAT WAVE DUE TO VERY STRONG 596 DM 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL THAT AFFECTS IL ONE MORE DAY.
INTRODUCED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW CWA AND ALSO NORTH OF PEORIA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NW IA...SE NEBRASKA AND NW KS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND THRU SE IL SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE 20-40% CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO SE IL SUNDAY WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN SE IL SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE GOING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SE OF I-70. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN FAR SE IL MONDAY AS BEST CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM CENTRAL/SE IL.
COOLER HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CENTRAL IL AND 90-95 IN
SE IL WHERE HEAT INDICES PEAK AROUND 100F.
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
THE NE SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TO RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF AREA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 AND WARMEST
READINGS IN SW AREAS. MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST OR THE NEW ALLBLEND DATA.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
946 AM CDT
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION UP THE LAKE FLIPPED WINDS TO ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. HAVE REFLECTED THIS TREND IN NEW PUBLISHED GRIDS...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT ORD/MDW ALREADY HAVING REACHED THE LOW/MID 90S.
BASED OFF TRENDS AT SITES JUST NORTH OF THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF TO THE LOW/MID 80S AT SITES JUST AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
UPPER 70S ON THE LAKEFRONT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST INDIANA...BEFORE
RECOVERING SOME AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT...WHICH IS STILL
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WILL STILL REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S/LOW 100S ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. THEN THE SYNOPTIC
COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA AT 18 TO 19Z...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AT INLAND SITES AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
COOLING TREND AT NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE IS THE STREAK OF
100 DEGREE DAYS AT ORD SHOULD END...BUT ROCKFORD AREA HAS A
DISTINCT CHANCE OF REACHING 100 AGAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS...BASED OFF MINIMAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC COOL
FRONT...LOWERED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CANT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
BEFORE THE ELEVATED COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS 16-18 KT INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
* MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
* LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
OUTFLOW/LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY HAS NOW PASSED ORD/MDW/GYY BRINGING
WINDS TO EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS ORD/MDW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT
GYY. A COOL FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY HELP ORD/MDW WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST BUT WILL TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WITH THE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
LAKE COOLING THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM RFD TO JOT TO RZL AND
POINTS SOUTH...WITH LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS SOME UPPER FORCING WORKS IN. WILL KEEP TAFS DRY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOW TSRA POTENTIAL AND THAT BULK OF ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014...4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON
MONDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002...4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON
MONDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL FIRE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE
OF SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR QUINCY
ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON 15Z WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS CENTER OF HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS A RESULT...THINK
GREATEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND ZERO POPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. FURTHER WEST ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOST MODELS KEEP THINGS COMPLETELY DRY...THE 12Z HRRR HINTS AT A
FEW STORMS AROUND THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO CARRY ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET...WITH READINGS GENERALLY REACHING THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAFS SITES NEXT 24HRS.
EXPECTING CIRRUS CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WITH FEW AC AT 8KFT. AC
SHOUL THICKEN UP SOME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION VERY UNCERTAIN...SO
WILL NOT HAVE ANY PCPN MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. WILL LET LATER
SHIFT DECIDE IF WARRANTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT THE PAST FIVE DAYS SINCE TUE.
LEANED TOWARD WARMER MET HIGHS WHICH ARE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO
HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OF 100-108F AND HEAT
INDICES PEAKING NEAR 110F IN THE AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE
LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION RANGING FROM 104-109F ALL SET
IN 1936. HEAT WAVE DUE TO VERY STRONG 596 DM 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL THAT AFFECTS IL ONE MORE DAY.
INTRODUCED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW CWA AND ALSO NORTH OF PEORIA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NW IA...SE NEBRASKA AND NW KS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND THRU SE IL SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE 20-40% CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO SE IL SUNDAY WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN SE IL SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE GOING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SE OF I-70. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN FAR SE IL MONDAY AS BEST CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM CENTRAL/SE IL.
COOLER HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CENTRAL IL AND 90-95 IN
SE IL WHERE HEAT INDICES PEAK AROUND 100F.
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
THE NE SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TO RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF AREA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 AND WARMEST
READINGS IN SW AREAS. MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST OR THE NEW ALLBLEND DATA.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
946 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
946 AM CDT
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION UP THE LAKE FLIPPED WINDS TO ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. HAVE REFLECTED THIS TREND IN NEW PUBLISHED GRIDS...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT ORD/MDW ALREADY HAVING REACHED THE LOW/MID 90S.
BASED OFF TRENDS AT SITES JUST NORTH OF THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF TO THE LOW/MID 80S AT SITES JUST AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
UPPER 70S ON THE LAKEFRONT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST INDIANA...BEFORE
RECOVERING SOME AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT...WHICH IS STILL
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WILL STILL REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S/LOW 100S ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. THEN THE SYNOPTIC
COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA AT 18 TO 19Z...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AT INLAND SITES AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
COOLING TREND AT NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE IS THE STREAK OF
100 DEGREE DAYS AT ORD SHOULD END...BUT ROCKFORD AREA HAS A
DISTINCT CHANCE OF REACHING 100 AGAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS...BASED OFF MINIMAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC COOL
FRONT...LOWERED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CANT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
BEFORE THE ELEVATED COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
RC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY AND STRENGTH/GUSTINESS OF
WINDS BEHIND IT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA WITH FROPA.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND WINDS BEHIND IT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY TS THAT WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WOULD BE TO THE SE TROUGH SW OF THE IMMEDIATE CHI
AREA.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS HOUR.
* WINDS LIKELY TO STAY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF COOL FRONT LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR A SHIFT BACK TO NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IF THE OUTFLOW AIR CAN BE MIXED.
* PATCHY OF 800-1200 FT CIGS FROM MKE-RAC AND POINTS EASTWARD
MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE...APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN
JUST EAST OF ORD/MDW NEXT FEW HOURS.
* LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH NOW
APPROACHING ORD/MDW AND GYY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH
THE PASSAGE WITH SOME INITIAL GUSTS TO 15-18 KT AND POSSIBLY
AROUND 20 KT AT GYY. WINDS SHOULD THEN SETTLE DOWN UNTIL THE MAIN
COOL FRONT PASSES MIDDAY OR SO WITH GUSTS COMING UP INTO THE 20
KT RANGE. EXPECT WINDS AT ORD/MDW/GYY TO REMAIN NORTH OR NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THEY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY IF THE OUTFLOW CAN MIX OUT.
REGARDLESS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALSO WATCHING A PATCH OF APPROXIMATELY 800-1200 FT CIGS FROM MKE-
RAC AND POINTS OFFSHORE WHICH SATELLITE SHOWS WOULD STAY OFFSHORE
FROM ORD/MDW AND PROBABLY GYY.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PASSAGE THIS HOUR.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COOL FRONT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 800-1200 FT CLOUD BAND REMAINING EAST
OF ORD/MDW NEXT FEW HOURS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOW TSRA POTENTIAL AND THAT BULK OF ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY AND STRENGTH/GUSTINESS OF
WINDS BEHIND IT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA WITH FROPA.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND WINDS BEHIND IT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY TS THAT WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WOULD BE TO THE SE TROUGH SW OF THE IMMEDIATE CHI
AREA.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
210 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
958 PM CDT
BUMPED UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE CWA...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS EVENING ARE STILL REGISTERING AS WARM AS IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN PLACES AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TONIGHT...WHEREAS LAST
NIGHT WINDS BECAME CALM FOR SOME AREAS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE CONCERNS TO NOTE...MAINLY
REVOLVING AROUND FRONTAL TIMING. THE 18Z AND NOW 00Z NAM CONTINUE
TO COME IN WITH A MID AFTERNOON FROPA...AND THINK THIS MAY BE A
REASONABLE SOLUTION //IF NOT SLOWER// SINCE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE EXTREME HEAT WITHOUT MUCH
CONVECTION/COLD POOLING TO ASSIST. THE 00Z NAM DOES EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ISOLD/SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED...WEAKLY CAPPED DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...EVEN MODEST FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK...BUT MAY BE BETTER OVER NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE AHEAD DOWN THE LAKE.
IF WE DO GET A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THAN 100F AT ORD IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...LEADING TO RECORD BREAKING FOURTH CONSECUTIVE
100 DEGREE DAY FOR CHICAGO. BMD
//PREV DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER
WITH A LAKE BREEZE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST IL. SCT CU HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000+ J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...HOWEVER SUSPECTING THE 100
J/KG OF CIN IS HOLDING CONVECTION BACK. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A SMALL CAP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE IN THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...AND THE LAKE BREEZE IS NOT
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH LIGHT WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD FIRE...BUT BETTING AGAINST IT AND
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT FOR
LOW 80S DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DOWNTOWN.
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT REACH
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH MANY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN SEEING TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES. ONLY COOLER SPOTS
WOULD BE NEAR UGN AND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
TURN ON SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING RELIEF TO THE NEARSHORE
REGIONS FIRST. HOWEVER...EXPECTING LAKE FRONT AREAS TO REACH THEIR
DAYTIME MAX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES TOMORROW
EAST OF I-355...WITH 105 TO 119 EXPECTED IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...TEMPS WILL DROP
SUDDENLY...BUT EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS...LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...PROVIDING THE FIRST REFRESHING NIGHT IN A
LONG TIME FOR MANY AREAS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS MOISTURE DISSIPATES AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. WAS NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WE NEED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO CAPE
TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY IS THE END OF THE WITHERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST...THOUGH THE 6 TO 10/8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC SUGGEST VERY WARM CONDITIONS MAY BE IN
STORE AGAIN BEYOND DAY 7. UNFORTUNATELY...NO RELIEF IS IN SIGHT FOR
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH AFTER
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS HEAT WAVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
BLOCKING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE PATTERN VERY SLOW
MOVING...BUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BE
ABLE TO KNOCK DOWN THE EVER PRESENT INTENSE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD
COOL ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MERCIFULLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE LAKEFRONT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH
DRIER AND COMFORTABLE...AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE TRYING
TO HINT AT POST FRONTAL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT
INHERITED SLIGHT POPS TO SOUTHERN CWA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNDAY...NO REAL CONCERNS TO SPEAK OF...OTHER THAN CONTINUED
LACK OF RAINFALL...WHICH IS A CONCERN IN THIS WORSENING DROUGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE HIGH LOCKED OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING SYNOPTIC NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTING TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE...WARMEST ON MONDAY AND
THEN LIKELY WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. LIKELY DAILY LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS THE
CONTINUOUS HEAT THIS SUMMER HAS LEFT LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN JULY. DESPITE GFS
WANTING TO OCCASIONALLY PAINT QPF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DROUGHT...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE SUPERIOR AND STABLE ECMWF IN
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WIND SHIFTING TO NNE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING WIND SPEED FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
* THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AT 05Z COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE
NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE HURON WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. OF MI
...WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...FAR NORTHWEST IA AND NORTHEAST NE. SURFACE WINDS
WOULD SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THE LEADING WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS RATHER
THAN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WHILE MODEL GRAPHICAL AND NUMERICAL OUTPUT SHOW SURFACE WIND
VEERING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING THE TRUE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELINEATED BY THE FURTHER VEERING TO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN IL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE OUTFLOWS OFTEN ENCOURAGE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT
DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND LATER
TIME OF PASSAGE AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM
CONSIDERING THE BACKING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING
DETECTED BY 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AT QUAD CITIES AND DSM
AREA. USING THE NAM FOR TIMING THE FRONT PASSES BOTH ORD AND MDW
AT 20-21Z AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MI DUE
TO LESS SURFACE FRICTION.
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS WIND EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT AS A
PRESSURE RISE CENTER MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN IL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME TS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...RATHER LARGE
CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL COOLING BEGINNING BY
LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO VEER FROM WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST. COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SO HAVE
LEFT PROB30 DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
WSHFT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TS ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA...MODERATE CONFIDENCE COVERAGE WILL BE NOT BECOME
WIDESPREAD.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NNE WINDS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTER SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKE. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE...WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FALLS CITY TO SOUTH OF CONCORDIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LAY FROM OSKALOOSA THROUGH
TOPEKA AND HERINGTON. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA SAVE THE NORTHWEST CORNER. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CONVERGENCE FROM DODGE CITY
NORTHEAST TO NEAR TOPEKA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SURFACE BASED CAPE RUNNING IN
THE 1500 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOW INVERTED V SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY TOUCH
OFF SOME MORE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. ALSO COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS OF
HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WILL ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 FOR POOLING OF DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S WHICH IF IT OCCURS COULD PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND
100 DEGREES.
53
POST FRONTAL AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 850 MB WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE MAINLY SITUATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING SUNDAY MOST AREAS AND WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES) WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK WAVE AS UPPER FLOW
TRIES TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EVENING AND SOUTH OF
I-70...THEN CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST ON MONDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF THE
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT ALSO INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AS EASTERLY LLVL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND HEIGHT RISES INCREASE...SHOULD SEE
TEMPS START TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BACK
INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.
63
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT TERMINALS WITH SAT IMAGERY NOTING MVFR CIGS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TRACKING SOUTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH FROM 5 TO 10 KTS
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH RES MODELS GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS
IN VC AFTER 21Z AT KMHK AND 22Z AT KTOP/KFOE. HOWEVER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH LACK OF DECENT WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LEAD TO KEEP VCTS FOR 18Z
ISSUANCE.
BOWEN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ010>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
MODEL CONVECTION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SYNOPTIC MASS
FIELDS TO SUBJECTIVELY DETERMINE HIGHER POP AREAS PER 12Z MODEL
RUNS. HOWEVER IN VERY SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT
HANDLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR. 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN THE BALLPARK.
ADJUSTED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 1200 UTC RAOBS SUGGEST LESS
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...WITH ROUGHLY A 1000 J/KILOGRAM
CAPE AND NOT A LOT OF CIN. LEAD WIND SHIFT PUSHED THROUGH KHUT BY
MIDDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST INTO KRSL. WITH WEAK/
DISORGANIZED FLOW...EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. COULD
EASILY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FESTER
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE KS.
SUN-MON:
WITH PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES AND DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HARD
PRESSED TO PIN DOWN HIGHER CHANCES/AREAS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
SOME HINTS IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ROLL OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLIP FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK
MON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION AND GFS/ECMWF
MUCH LESS. APPEARS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK DURING
THE NIGHT AND ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST MAY BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
COLD POOL. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ON MON MORNING IN FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER BOTH
DAYS LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
LATEST MODELS SHOW FRONT HANGING UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ALONG OK BORDER THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP STATUS QUO AND LET MIDSHIFT REEVALUATE.
WED-SAT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER FLOW.
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES...
LEAVING FORECAST AREA NORTHWEST-NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND LOCATED
BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMALS. IN ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OR SIGNIFICANT INFLUX
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FOCUS (NO PUN INTENDED) IS ON BEHAVIOR OF COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG EVER SO SLOWLY SSE ACROSS CNTRL KS AT MID-DAY. AS THIS DISCUSSION
IS BEING TYPED IT APPEARED THE FRONT HAD JUST REACHED KHUT AS THEIR
WINDS HAVE SLOWLY SHIFTED FROM W TO N FROM 14Z-17Z. CAP IS ERODING AND
AS SUCH EXPECT HIGH-LEVEL CU TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MID-UPR DYNAMICS REMAIN FEEBLE. AS SUCH EXPECT ANY -TSRA
THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING TO BE SCATTERED
& POORLY ORGANIZED. MINIMAL COVERAGE DICTATES KEEPING TSRA OUT OF ALL
TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 94 73 90 / 20 30 30 20
HUTCHINSON 75 93 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
NEWTON 75 93 72 91 / 20 30 30 10
ELDORADO 74 94 72 91 / 30 30 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 96 76 90 / 30 30 30 20
RUSSELL 72 91 69 88 / 40 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 72 92 69 87 / 40 40 40 30
SALINA 76 91 73 90 / 40 30 30 10
MCPHERSON 74 92 70 91 / 30 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 77 93 74 89 / 30 30 30 20
CHANUTE 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
IOLA 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-067>072-
083-092>096-098>100.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-
048-049.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1155 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
14Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 595 DM H5 RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...WITH PV ANOMALY NOTED ALONG THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER CENTERED NEAR KLIC. 15Z SFC OBS INDICATED COLD FRONT
HAD PROGRESSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LATEST OBS INDICATING
IT HAD MOVED THROUGH HLC AND TRB. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED FAIRLY DEEP
FRONTAL ZONE HAD MOVED THROUGH KLBF WITH FRONTAL INVERSION NOTED UP
TO H75 AND WITH A 11C TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT H85. WHILE A NOTICEABLE
COOL DOWN ALSO NOTED AT DNR...OVERALL AIR MASS AT DDC HAD CHANGED
LITTLE FROM 12Z YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AND IMPACT OF
FROPA ON AFTERNOON TEMPS.
TODAY...WITH FAIRLY DEEP COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA...THINK
RATHER DRAMATIC COOL DOWN IN TEMPS STILL LOOK IN ORDER WITH BIGGEST
AREA OF CONCERN ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA WHERE COOLER AIR
WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO ACTUAL SFC FRONT.
LOOKING AT CURRENT TEMPS/QUICKLY ERODING SKY COVER AND LATEST DATA
THINK BUMPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IS IN ORDER IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THINK
ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SFC
HEATING AND WILL BE RATHER UNORGANIZED AND SPOTTY. LATEST HIGH-RES
DATA GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND HAVE NUDGED FORECAST IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE PRIOR TO
12Z.
TONIGHT...FAIRLY COMPLICATED FORECAST AS OVERALL FORCING UNDER LARGE
SCALE RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AS OVERALL FLOW PRETTY LIGHT...BUT
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED TO EVEN
ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FORCED ASCENT TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA TO THE NORTH OF FRONT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH. HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
ANY SIG PV ANOMALIES NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF SW TROUGH APPARENT ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AT
16Z. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND EXPECTED INSTABILITY PATTERN...HARD TO
RULE OUT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR NOT HAVING A THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LIMIT HIGHEST CHANCES TO NORTHWESTERN CWA
WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO WEAK SW TROUGH. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS...ABOVE FREEZING LAYER > 15000 FT
AND PRECIPITATELY WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING A DEFINITE CONCERN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
CWA HAS BEEN WITHOUT PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LATEST DATA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES SHOULD
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BECOME MORE LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS ALONG/OVER EACH
COAST. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PACIFIC.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
OF THE RIDGE. FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS WERE ALSO CLOSE AT MID
LEVELS WITH THE UKMET...CANADIAN...SREF AND GFS DOING SLIGHTLY
BETTER. CURRENTLY COLD POOL IS SHOVING FRONT IN A LITTLE
FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE RUC WAS CATCHING THIS THE
BEST WITH MAYBE THE NAM AND GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE HRRR WAS
ACTUALLY TOO FAST ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FRONT BUT WAS NOT BAD
WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. MODELS NOT
CATCHING THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL. THEY TENDED TO NOT
HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST. HERE THE GFS WAS OUTDOING THE
REST THE UKMET BEHIND IT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PER THE RUC/HRRR WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A
LITTLE FASTER. NEWER ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER.
GUSTY WINDS AND STRATUS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS MORNING. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE FRONT. BASED ON
REALITY AND TRENDS OF NEWER MODEL DATA...WILL BE TAKING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAKING IT COOLER.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE MOVES WELL SOUTH OR GETS DRAPED
ACROSS OR TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THAT WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FLOW/LIFT ON
TOP OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. HARD TO FIND ANYTHING REALLY STRONG TO LIFT THIS AIR MASS.
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUT TO OUR WEST WITH NO REAL STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OR CONVERGENCE. ALSO 700 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAP THE AIR MASS. PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST AND ALONG OUR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP STORM MOVES ARE SLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WAS ILLUSTRATED TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AREA IN UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHAT LOOKS TO BE
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE PERIOD STARTS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT REALLY
HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA. WITH UPSLOPE...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT ON THIS MOIST AIR MASS. AGAIN HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIFT AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE CUTTING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TOO FAST. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING. WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION THERE IS LOOKS TO END DURING THE EVENING. HOW FAST IT
CLEARS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. AGAIN THINK MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN
MANY PLACES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THERE MAY BE TOO
WARM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CHURNS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRY TO TRAVEL EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THINK THAT IF
ANYTHING MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. A WEAK SURFACE LEE
TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TO MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AFTER 09Z WHEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG INCREASES FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND VERY HUMID ENVIRONMENT...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY STORMS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
545 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS ALONG/OVER EACH
COAST. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PACIFIC.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
OF THE RIDGE. FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS WERE ALSO CLOSE AT MID
LEVELS WITH THE UKMET...CANADIAN...SREF AND GFS DOING SLIGHTLY
BETTER. CURRENTLY COLD POOL IS SHOVING FRONT IN A LITTLE
FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE RUC WAS CATCHING THIS THE
BEST WITH MAYBE THE NAM AND GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE HRRR WAS
ACTUALLY TOO FAST ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FRONT BUT WAS NOT BAD
WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. MODELS NOT
CATCHING THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL. THEY TENDED TO NOT
HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST. HERE THE GFS WAS OUTDOING THE
REST THE UKMET BEHIND IT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PER THE RUC/HRRR WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A
LITTLE FASTER. NEWER ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER.
GUSTY WINDS AND STRATUS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS MORNING. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE FRONT. BASED ON
REALITY AND TRENDS OF NEWER MODEL DATA...WILL BE TAKING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAKING IT COOLER.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE MOVES WELL SOUTH OR GETS DRAPED
ACROSS OR TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THAT WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FLOW/LIFT ON
TOP OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. HARD TO FIND ANYTHING REALLY STRONG TO LIFT THIS AIR MASS.
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUT TO OUR WEST WITH NO REAL STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OR CONVERGENCE. ALSO 700 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAP THE AIR MASS. PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST AND ALONG OUR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP STORM MOVES ARE SLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WAS ILLUSTRATED TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AREA IN UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHAT LOOKS TO BE
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE PERIOD STARTS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT REALLY
HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA. WITH UPSLOPE...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT ON THIS MOIST AIR MASS. AGAIN HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIFT AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE CUTTING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TOO FAST. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING. WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION THERE IS LOOKS TO END DURING THE EVENING. HOW FAST IT
CLEARS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. AGAIN THINK MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN
MANY PLACES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THERE MAY BE TOO
WARM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CHURNS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRY TO TRAVEL EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THINK THAT IF
ANYTHING MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. A WEAK SURFACE LEE
TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS. INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO BEFORE 18Z. THEN VFR/BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THAT
TIME BUT COVERAGE AND EXACTLY WHERE ARE IN QUESTION. CHOSE TO
HANDLE WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE DAY SHIFT FINE TUNE.
AFTER 06Z...MVFR OR JUST ABOVE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS ALONG/OVER EACH
COAST. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PACIFIC.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
OF THE RIDGE. FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS WERE ALSO CLOSE AT MID
LEVELS WITH THE UKMET...CANADIAN...SREF AND GFS DOING SLIGHTLY
BETTER. CURRENTLY COLD POOL IS SHOVING FRONT IN A LITTLE
FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE RUC WAS CATCHING THIS THE
BEST WITH MAYBE THE NAM AND GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE HRRR WAS
ACTUALLY TOO FAST ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FRONT BUT WAS NOT BAD
WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. MODELS NOT
CATCHING THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL. THEY TENDED TO NOT
HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST. HERE THE GFS WAS OUTDOING THE
REST THE UKMET BEHIND IT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PER THE RUC/HRRR WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A
LITTLE FASTER. NEWER ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER.
GUSTY WINDS AND STRATUS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS MORNING. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE FRONT. BASED ON
REALITY AND TRENDS OF NEWER MODEL DATA...WILL BE TAKING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAKING IT COOLER.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE MOVES WELL SOUTH OR GETS DRAPED
ACROSS OR TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THAT WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FLOW/LIFT ON
TOP OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. HARD TO FIND ANYTHING REALLY STRONG TO LIFT THIS AIR MASS.
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUT TO OUR WEST WITH NO REAL STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OR CONVERGENCE. ALSO 700 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAP THE AIR MASS. PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST AND ALONG OUR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP STORM MOVES ARE SLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WAS ILLUSTRATED TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AREA IN UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHAT LOOKS TO BE
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE PERIOD STARTS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT REALLY
HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA. WITH UPSLOPE...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT ON THIS MOIST AIR MASS. AGAIN HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIFT AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE CUTTING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TOO FAST. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING. WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION THERE IS LOOKS TO END DURING THE EVENING. HOW FAST IT
CLEARS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. AGAIN THINK MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN
MANY PLACES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THERE MAY BE TOO
WARM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CHURNS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRY TO TRAVEL EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THINK THAT IF
ANYTHING MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. A WEAK SURFACE LEE
TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON IT AND SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BE SEEING THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL
FOR THE 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHWARD TRANSITION OF THE RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
POOLING OF DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL STILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL GENERATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
98 AND 104 DEGREES DURING THE PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO REPLACE THE
WARNING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION
THROUGH 6 PM CDT SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND OPAQUE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY...THIS
ADVISORY MAY BE CAN CELLED EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE 12KM HAM-WRF...4KM NAM-WRF /NMM VERSION/...3KM HRRR AND THE
SREF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
EXPLICIT CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ DEVELOPING IN THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AMORPHOUS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BISECT THE WFO PAH CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY...DIVERGENCE FROM THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WEST TENNESSEE...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SHARP
INCREASE IN POPS/WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FLARE UP IN CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST POPS
AND WEATHER WERE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THE INITIAL MODEL
GUIDANCE POPS AND WEATHER...BUT REMAIN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS.
AS THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY EVENING
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW BECOMES ELONGATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THE MEAN AXIS OF POP/WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...INITIALLY
MOVING OUT OF PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS
AND WEATHER ARE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT
SAT JUL 7 2012
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD BACK PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY...GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM...BUT THE GFS AND GEM ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. WILL DEFER TO THE ECMWF AND NAM WHICH HAVE BEEN
PREFERRED OF LATE.
THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
WEAK...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS RATHER BIZARRE TO SEE A TROUGH OF THIS SIZE
WITH A CENTRAL HEIGHT OF 583 OR 584DM. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS NOT MUCH
COOLING...OR THE TROUGH WOULD BE DEEPER. BY FRIDAY...SOME MODELS
CLOSE OFF A LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH IN OUR VICINITY...WHICH ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT AND IS
THEREFORE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...WARMEST AND DRIEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FAVORED THE ECMWF AND WENT A BIT ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND CONFINED POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO SLIGHT
CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO POPS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD FARTHER WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER BY
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER MILD NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PICK AT ALL SITES SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS
SOME DISPUTE AMONGST GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER SOLUTION.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE
HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SOME GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. INSERTED A THICK 9-12KFT LAYER OF CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO REFLECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THERE
IS NO EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER OR PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDIFIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE NSSL WRF...THE SPC
WRF AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS THINKING. THE COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY AS A FINE LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MUSKEGON SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS AND EATON RAPIDS. THE
FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN AREAS FROM
MUSKEGON TO WALKER...BUT THUS FAR NO CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.
MODIFYING THE MORNING DTX SOUNDING TO A 97/70 T/TD YIELDS CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS EITHER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OR THE LAKE BREEZE. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS POST
FRONTAL ALONG AN ELEVATED COLD FRONT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.
IF WE SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR LAKE BREEZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM GRAND RAPIDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD EATON RAPIDS AS RADAR IS INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF REFLECTIVITY FOR A BOUNDARY (20-25 DBZ) IN SPOTS.
AFTER TONIGHT...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. LOOKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WX. IT
APPEARS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTER OF THE
STATE TOWARD LAN AND JXN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE MID RANGE MODELS... IN GOOD AGREEMENT... CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOVE
TO A COOLER REGIME. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST... AS UPPER TROUGHING WORKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL WORK IT/S WAY SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED FOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE JXN TAF SITE
UNTIL 01Z.
THE COLD FRONT CLOUD BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
I-96 TO I-94 AREA AS I WRITE THIS AROUND 2245Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS (NOT MUCH LIGHTING WITH THE CELLS) WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
NAM12 SHOWS STRONG LIFT IN THE 950 TO 925 MB LAYER WERE THE
SHOWERS WERE AT 21Z... THIS AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 03Z. THAT WILL END ANY RISK OF RAIN FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT SHOW MUCH CLOUD POTENTIAL BEHIND THE
FRONT SO BY 03Z MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CLEAR OR NEAR CLEAR
SKIES. LAN AND JXN MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY BUT EVEN THERE BY 09Z OR SO SKIES
SHOULD GO CLEAR. JUST A NORTH WIND BELOW 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
CONTINUING THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
IS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WEBCAMS SHOWING A LOT OF WHITE CAPS AT MUSKEGON AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS REPORTING 4.8 FOOT WAVES AT 250 PM. THE
MUSKEGON GLERL BUOY IS BACK IN THE WATER AND IT IS INDICATING MAX
WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND BUILDING. SO...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE WAVES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THE 3-5 FOOTERS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH HAVEN AND
ST. JOSEPH THIS EVENING. THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA/BH.S CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HOLLAND MAY SEE WINDS AND WAVES PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE FLOW COMES BACK NORTHERLY AGAIN FROM OFF
SHORE.
AFTER SUNDAY....HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW...AS THE BULK OF THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS APPEAR DRY. NOT GOOD FOR
THOSE NEEDING RAIN WHICH IS MOST AREAS.
ONLY REAL HYDRO CONCERN ARE THE POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH
WOULD PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GRR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 98 SET IN 1936 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 98 SO FAR WHICH TIES THE RECORD.
MKG RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 93 SET IN 1897 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 92 SO FAR TODAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ056-064-
071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
CLIMATE...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE NSSL WRF...THE SPC
WRF AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS THINKING. THE COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY AS A FINE LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MUSKEGON SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS AND EATON RAPIDS. THE
FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN AREAS FROM
MUSKEGON TO WALKER...BUT THUS FAR NO CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.
MODIFYING THE MORNING DTX SOUNDING TO A 97/70 T/TD YIELDS CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS EITHER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OR THE LAKE BREEZE. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS POST
FRONTAL ALONG AN ELEVATED COLD FRONT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.
IF WE SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR LAKE BREEZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM GRAND RAPIDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD EATON RAPIDS AS RADAR IS INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF REFLECTIVITY FOR A BOUNDARY (20-25 DBZ) IN SPOTS.
AFTER TONIGHT...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. LOOKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WX. IT
APPEARS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTER OF THE
STATE TOWARD LAN AND JXN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE MID RANGE MODELS... IN GOOD AGREEMENT... CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOVE
TO A COOLER REGIME. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST... AS UPPER TROUGHING WORKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL WORK IT/S WAY SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
ISOLATED IFR OR MVFR. WIND WILL BE TURNING NORTH MOSTLY BELOW 15
KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
CONTINUING THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
IS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WEBCAMS SHOWING A LOT OF WHITE CAPS AT MUSKEGON AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS REPORTING 4.8 FOOT WAVES AT 250 PM. THE
MUSKEGON GLERL BUOY IS BACK IN THE WATER AND IT IS INDICATING MAX
WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND BUILDING. SO...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE WAVES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THE 3-5 FOOTERS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH HAVEN AND
ST. JOSEPH THIS EVENING. THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA/BH.S CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HOLLAND MAY SEE WINDS AND WAVES PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE FLOW COMES BACK NORTHERLY AGAIN FROM OFF
SHORE.
AFTER SUNDAY....HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW...AS THE BULK OF THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS APPEAR DRY. NOT GOOD FOR
THOSE NEEDING RAIN WHICH IS MOST AREAS.
ONLY REAL HYDRO CONCERN ARE THE POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH
WOULD PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GRR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 98 SET IN 1936 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 98 SO FAR WHICH TIES THE RECORD.
MKG RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 93 SET IN 1897 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 92 SO FAR TODAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ056-064-
071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
CLIMATE...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1053 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO SCATTER AROUND MID MORNING ON MONDAY WHILE
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN FROM A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION...BUT MAY
BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
UPDATE...EXPANDED PCPN CHCS NORTHWARD AS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE KHSI AREA IN CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR THE PLATTE
RIVER AND IN LIFT WITH MCV ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF CONVECTION
PERSISTS...COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF...AND SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EARLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEFORE DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WAS SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGAN TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT RANGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESCEND ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME
INCREASED LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A MORE DEVELOPED REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE FIRST FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
ALTHOUGH THE 4 KM WRF IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD WITH THE QPF ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF
GENERATED ACROSS NEBRASKA SLIDING SOUTH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...EVEN
WITH GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LIKELY ALTHOUGH CHANCES POPS ARE MENTIONED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD...AS DOES
THE SURFACE HIGH. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE NAM LAGS A BIT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY USING BOIVERIFY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT EVEN BE LOWER. EVEN
STILL...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE 12Z GFS PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLATED
LOW QPF SPOTS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. OVERALL...OUR
AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...TO 89 TO 94
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT AND HAS A LITTLE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THUS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM HONESTLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
ADDING THESE SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING RAIN IS SO LOW AND AM WORRIED ABOUT GIVING FALSE HOPE TO AREA
FARMERS. IF IT DOES RAIN IT SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOP OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE
END...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECWMF IS DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE DAY
SUNDAY WHEN IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS
AGAIN SEEMS TO GIVE TOO MUCH FALSE HOPE OF RAIN WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF LOW END QPF. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TOO
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
723 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...EXPANDED PCPN CHCS NORTHWARD AS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE KHSI AREA IN CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR THE PLATTE
RIVER AND IN LIFT WITH MCV ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF CONVECTION
PERSISTS...COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF...AND SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAF. A FAIR AMOUNT OF VFR CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS IN THE 4K TO 8K RANGE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY...AND EVEN VARIABLE AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A TSTM...CHCS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EARLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEFORE DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WAS SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGAN TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT RANGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESCEND ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME
INCREASED LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A MORE DEVELOPED REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE FIRST FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
ALTHOUGH THE 4 KM WRF IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD WITH THE QPF ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF
GENERATED ACROSS NEBRASKA SLIDING SOUTH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...EVEN
WITH GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LIKELY ALTHOUGH CHANCES POPS ARE MENTIONED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD...AS DOES
THE SURFACE HIGH. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE NAM LAGS A BIT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY USING BOIVERIFY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT EVEN BE LOWER. EVEN
STILL...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE 12Z GFS PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLATED
LOW QPF SPOTS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. OVERALL...OUR
AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...TO 89 TO 94
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT AND HAS A LITTLE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THUS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM HONESTLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
ADDING THESE SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING RAIN IS SO LOW AND AM WORRIED ABOUT GIVING FALSE HOPE TO AREA
FARMERS. IF IT DOES RAIN IT SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOP OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE
END...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECWMF IS DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE DAY
SUNDAY WHEN IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS
AGAIN SEEMS TO GIVE TOO MUCH FALSE HOPE OF RAIN WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF LOW END QPF. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TOO
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
641 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. A FAIR AMOUNT OF VFR CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS IN THE 4K TO 8K RANGE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY...AND EVEN VARIABLE AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A TSTM...CHCS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EARLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEFORE DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WAS SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGAN TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT RANGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESCEND ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME
INCREASED LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A MORE DEVELOPED REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE FIRST FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
ALTHOUGH THE 4 KM WRF IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD WITH THE QPF ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF
GENERATED ACROSS NEBRASKA SLIDING SOUTH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...EVEN
WITH GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LIKELY ALTHOUGH CHANCES POPS ARE MENTIONED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD...AS DOES
THE SURFACE HIGH. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE NAM LAGS A BIT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY USING BOIVERIFY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT EVEN BE LOWER. EVEN
STILL...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE 12Z GFS PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLATED
LOW QPF SPOTS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. OVERALL...OUR
AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...TO 89 TO 94
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT AND HAS A LITTLE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THUS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM HONESTLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
ADDING THESE SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING RAIN IS SO LOW AND AM WORRIED ABOUT GIVING FALSE HOPE TO AREA
FARMERS. IF IT DOES RAIN IT SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOP OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE
END...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECWMF IS DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE DAY
SUNDAY WHEN IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS
AGAIN SEEMS TO GIVE TOO MUCH FALSE HOPE OF RAIN WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF LOW END QPF. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TOO
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SWRN NEB IN THE WAKE OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY MAY
BE CAPABLE OF FOG/IFR OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AERA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHRA ARE
MORE LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS FROM 15Z MONDAY ONWARD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ACROSS SERN
COLO/WRN KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR. SATELITTE
SHOWS THE BEST SFC FOCUS DOWN THAT WAY WITH THE CU FIELD STREAMING WESTWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO SWRN NEB WHICH SHOULD GREATLY
STABILIZE THE ATM. STILL...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE FCST
HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA INDICATED SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THE 3KM AGL LEVEL FROM THE WSR-88D RADAR WIND PROFILES
SHOWED A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL END OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...THE SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE WEST...UPPER FLOW OVER
NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORES NORTHERLY. THEN WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA.
THE FIRST OF THE WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GOOD MONSOON MOISTURE RESIDES OVER NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SW
OF THE KLBF TERMINAL HOWEVER DID TEMPO -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DECENT
LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE KLBF TAF. FURTHER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOME ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE RIVER STAGE AT NORTH PLATTE JUST BELOW FLOOD AND LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN
COUNTY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INLAND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS HAS MOVED SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS. THESE CLOUDS SLOWED THE UPWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE MORE THAN
COMPENSATING WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...PUSHING THE HEAT INDEX TO 105 OR GREATER. THINK TEMPS WILL
WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
EXPANDING EAST PER LATEST RAP MODEL AND PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...THINK ANY CONVECTION ALONG WHATEVER SEA BREEZE THAT
FORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POP IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
ONLY CHANGE FROM PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL BE MIN TEMPS HOLDING
AROUND 74-77 OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT SW WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT DUE TO TIGHTENING OF INLAND PIEDMONT TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 110-115 ALL
AREAS SO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT ALONG WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROF SETTLING
IN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME TIME A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALL
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
THE TAFS. MOSTLY CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY LATE NIGHT MVFR CATEGORY FOG/HAZE WITH VSBYS IN THE 3
TO 5 MILE RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z PER LAST FEW NIGHT. WITH
EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE HEAT RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...WOULD EXPECT EVEN FEWER CLOUDS AND CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA...LINGERING INTO LATE WEEK. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...ONLY REAL CHANGE TO MARINE FORECAST IS A
SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTIONS TO MORE SW PER LATEST BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY WHICH CONTINUES TO REPORT ABOUT 5 FEET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 230 AM SAT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
FOR ALL WATERS PLUS BOTH SOUNDS. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
IN FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND ACROSS THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET IN THE WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO REACH 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH A RESULTING
SUBSIDING OF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DATES OF PREVIOUS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR LOCAL CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW.
NEW BERN...RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948
7/7 - 98 (2010 AND 1987)
7/8 - 99 (1986)
CAPE HATTERAS...RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893
7/7 - 94 (2010)
7/8 - 94 (1987)
BEAUFORT...RECORDS BEGAN IN 2000
7/7 - 97 (2010)
7/8 - 90 (2005)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
CLIMATE...DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THAT
BEING SAID... THERE ARE HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY
AFFECT SOME AIRPORTS /ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT TAF SITES
TO MENTION/ WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
WIND SHEAR IF ONE MOVES TOO CLOSE. AND WINDS.. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
LIGHT.. WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DUE TO WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM THE
MORNING STORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...EXTENDS FROM GULF COAST STATES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...COVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS WOULD
INDICATE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A FEW TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A KOKC TO KSPS LINE AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT
FROM TSRA/SHRA APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 20 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 10 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 20 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 20 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 40 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...EXTENDS FROM GULF COAST STATES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...COVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS WOULD
INDICATE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A FEW TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A KOKC TO KSPS LINE AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT
FROM TSRA/SHRA APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 0 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 0 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 10 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A FEW TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A KOKC TO KSPS LINE AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT
FROM TSRA/SHRA APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 0 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 0 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 10 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 0 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 0 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 10 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE ON
MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A COUPLE MODERATE SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NE
GA...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS THEY ARE GETTING
AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT SPAWNED THEM. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA FROM THE NORTH.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO I
DON/T SEE THAT CONVECTION HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE FA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED SFC THERMAL RIDGE OVER ERN
TN...AND SOME STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
TN LINE.
AS OF 750 PM EDT...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH
OF THE NIGHT OVER THE NC MTNS. CENTRAL AND NRN AVERY COUNTY...FOR
EXAMPLE...HAS SEEN CONVECTION INCREASE SINCE 7 PM. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CU EVIDENT OF VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE REST OF THE
FA...AND I/LL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES LATE OVER THE FOOTHILLS.
AS OF 445 PM EDT...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND A BLEND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN USED FOR POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS YIELDS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE NEAR THE TN LINE IN A FEW HOURS...WITH SCT CONVECTION
WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NRN UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAMP UP OVER THE CENTRAL
SMOKIES AND INTO THE ESCARPMENT. WE JUST ISSUED A COUPLE OF SVR TS
WARNINGS DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...BUT THE CELLS HAVE BEEN DYING
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. CU CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWFA
WITH A FEW CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I AM EXPECTING THAT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON AND THE CURRENT STORMS PUT DOWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
COULD IN TURN PRODUCE MORE TS. I KEEP A SOLID TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSRA OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA THRU TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS STILL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL.
ON MONDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL OCCUR WRT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE STEEP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE VERY BROAD
UPPER TROF HOLDING OVER EASTERN CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SFC
BNDY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. I RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC
MTS BY 18Z WITH A SOLID CHANCE ELSEWHERE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES...IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK
S TUE-WED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO IT AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU THE UPPER FLOW. THE ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY
POPS CWA-WIDE. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME WITH COOLING BUT
SOLID CHC POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...
SHWRS IN THE AREA AND LOWER THICKNESS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE DOMINATED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE W WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE SETTLED OVER THE AREA. LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCT SHWRS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVG. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING W INTO THE REGION ON SUN WHICH WOULD PUT
THE AREA BACK IN THE USUAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW AVG NEXT
SUN AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BRIEFLY TURNED THE WINDS OUT OF THE
NW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SW THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
ON MONDAY A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS EXPECTED. I/D BE
SURPRISED IF THE AIRFIELD DIDN/T EXPERIENCE A TSTM. TIMING IS
TOUGH...BUT I/VE KEPT THE 18-22 UTC PERIOD FOR THE PROB30 GROUP WE
HAD BEFORE. SOME OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LINE MAY
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD DURING THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO NW IN THE
MORNING...BACK AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN THE AFTN AND THEN VEER BACK TO
NW IN THE EVENING ON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHRA OR TSTMS AT KAVL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE W TO SW. GOOD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL AND KHKY. THE STORMS SHOULD DRIFT INTO
THE UPSTATE BY LATE AFTN. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN MOST
OF THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A TROUGH.
AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
AVL
JULY 9TH 93 IN 1986
GSP
JULY 9TH 100 IN 1993
CLT
JULY 9TH 101 IN 1986
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MCAVOY
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE ON
MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH
OF THE NIGHT OVER THE NC MTNS. CENTRAL AND NRN AVERY COUNTY...FOR
EXAMPLE...HAS SEEN CONVECTION INCREASE SINCE 7 PM. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CU EVIDENT OF VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE REST OF THE
FA...AND I/LL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES LATE OVER THE FOOTHILLS.
AS OF 445 PM EDT...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND A BLEND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN USED FOR POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS YIELDS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE NEAR THE TN LINE IN A FEW HOURS...WITH SCT CONVECTION
WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NRN UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAMP UP OVER THE CENTRAL
SMOKIES AND INTO THE ESCARPMENT. WE JUST ISSUED A COUPLE OF SVR TS
WARNINGS DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...BUT THE CELLS HAVE BEEN DYING
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. CU CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWFA
WITH A FEW CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I AM EXPECTING THAT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON AND THE CURRENT STORMS PUT DOWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
COULD IN TURN PRODUCE MORE TS. I KEEP A SOLID TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSRA OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA THRU TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS STILL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL.
ON MONDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL OCCUR WRT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE STEEP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE VERY BROAD
UPPER TROF HOLDING OVER EASTERN CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SFC
BNDY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. I RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC
MTS BY 18Z WITH A SOLID CHANCE ELSEWHERE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES...IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK
S TUE-WED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO IT AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU THE UPPER FLOW. THE ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY
POPS CWA-WIDE. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME WITH COOLING BUT
SOLID CHC POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...
SHWRS IN THE AREA AND LOWER THICKNESS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE DOMINATED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE W WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE SETTLED OVER THE AREA. LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCT SHWRS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVG. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING W INTO THE REGION ON SUN WHICH WOULD PUT
THE AREA BACK IN THE USUAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW AVG NEXT
SUN AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BRIEFLY TURNED THE WINDS OUT OF THE
NW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SW THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
ON MONDAY A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS EXPECTED. I/D BE
SURPRISED IF THE AIRFIELD DIDN/T EXPERIENCE A TSTM. TIMING IS
TOUGH...BUT I/VE KEPT THE 18-22 UTC PERIOD FOR THE PROB30 GROUP WE
HAD BEFORE. SOME OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LINE MAY
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD DURING THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO NW IN THE
MORNING...BACK AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN THE AFTN AND THEN VEER BACK TO
NW IN THE EVENING ON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHRA OR TSTMS AT KAVL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE W TO SW. GOOD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL AND KHKY. THE STORMS SHOULD DRIFT INTO
THE UPSTATE BY LATE AFTN. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN MOST
OF THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A TROUGH.
AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
AVL
JULY 8TH 96 IN 1988
JULY 9TH 93 IN 1986
GSP
JULY 8TH 101 IN 1986
JULY 9TH 100 IN 1993
CLT
JULY 8TH 101 IN 2010
JULY 9TH 101 IN 1986
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MCAVOY
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A WEAK IMPULSE/MOISTURE SURGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
IS BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WELL
OVERDONE...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. IT CONTINUES THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY NEAR THE SURFACE SO ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE ECHOES ARE NOT EVEN PRODUCING RAIN
THAT REACHES THE GROUND. NONETHELESS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
18Z NAM COMING IN WITH A SHARPER WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AND IT A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
NOW...ALTHOUGH STILL RATHER LIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD GET SOMETHING GOING. DEWPOINTS ALSO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH...IF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THERE IS A VERY WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDING SOUTHEAST...MUCH LIKE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE OVERALL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME MINOR
ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO ALLBLEND ADVERTISING
SCHC/CHC POPS IN SEVERAL PERIODS. PER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE
TRIED TO REMOVE OR LOWER POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION VIA NORTHWEST ALOFT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...BELIEVE LITTLE/IF ANY PCPN WILL
OCCUR IN THE THIS CWA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ADDED LLM...ALONG WITH AN OPEN WAVE A
H5 MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS AT H7 WARMING INTO THE TEENS ABOVE C. THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS SHOWING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WHICH
SEEMS REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES IN THIS CWA. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
MVFR CIGS SOUTHWEST OF KPIR/KMBG THAT MAY BRIEFLY MIGRATE INTO
THE REGION AND AFFECT TAF SITES. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER HIGH TRYING TO REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE NAM HOLDS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT UP
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS...WHILE THE RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GRIDS. WILL EXPAND THE POPS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE TONIGHT PERIOD AND UPDATE
WIND GRIDS BASED ON POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT ONGOING FORECAST LOOS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH
THE LATEST NAM DATA AND UPDATE THE 20 FOOT WINDS.
ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 5
TO 15 KNOTS.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. WITH NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS HIGH THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN DECREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AFTER
THIS...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SHORTWAVE OR UPPER LEVEL
LOW RIDING BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
NF
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
MPH...AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BRINGING MOISTURE TO DRIER FUELS AROUND
THE PANHANDLES.
NF/JG
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...
SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING TOWARDS BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THESE WILL HELP ESTABLISH MORE
DEFINITE NORTHEAST COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...DIFFICULT HOWEVER TO
DETERMINE WHICH ONE AT THIS POINT IS MORE THE ACTUAL FRONT. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE STILL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING
ACROSS KLBB AGAIN BY MID EVENING FOLLOWING ONE OF THESE OUTFLOWS
THOUGH DIFFERS FROM WRF/NAM IN THIS REGARDS. ALSO...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...IN BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS...APPEARS IT
MAY REMAIN EAST OF KLBB. WE DID RETAIN THE VCTS AT KCDS THIS EVENING
AND VCSH THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL COMPLEX MORE IN-
LINE WITH BRUSHING BY KCDS. ANYWAY...THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OUT SO WE WILL
UPDATE IF/WHEN THEY APPEAR CAPABLE OF HITTING/MISSING EITHER SITE.
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH FOR PROB30 THUNDER
GROUPS TO BE ADDED TO BOTH SITES FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING 36 HOURS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY HAS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WAS UP A NOTCH FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MODEST WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500
J/KG...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND OVERALL STEERING FLOW WAS WEAK.
THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY
PULSED UP TO STRONG LEVELS...THOUGH THEY HAVE COLLAPSED JUST AS
QUICKLY...WITH NEW REDEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING A LONG ANTICIPATED SHIFT...WITH
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COMING 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL HELP TO BEND THE RESIDUAL MONSOONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A POSITIVE PV ANOMALY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
ZONES...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK OUTFLOW AIDED/MASKED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EASE
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE SFC WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT IN BETTER MOISTURE LEVEL AT/NEAR
THE SFC. ALL OF THESE FACTORS TOGETHER WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BEFORE
THEN...EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COULD KEEP A LITTLE ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT...FAVORING
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. DO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THAT SAID...THE ENTIRE AREA STANDS A GOOD
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE RAISED POPS SOLIDLY
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED 40-60
PERCENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE
UP SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS...BUT AGAIN THE WEAK SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. INSTEAD...SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER MONDAY AFTER ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO VARY FROM THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
80S ACROSS THE NW ZONES TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SE ZONES.
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWV TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THE PERIOD OF DEEPEST LIFT WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200J/KG
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED SFC HEATING WILL REDUCE THE OVERALL THREAT.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE AREA ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND BEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AL TOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GENERAL
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE PWATS AVERAGE 1.5"-1.75" WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAY TUE THEN TAPERED OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECIDED ALSO TO ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO GRIDS GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM
MOTION.
ALL SHORT-MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRIER AIR
WORKING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AS NRLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATES INTO FAR SW TX. ADDITIONAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED BUT
OVERALL LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DRIER AIR PRECLUDES MUCH IN
WAY OF POPS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS LINGERING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM SE
NM INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST
INTO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOME SHORTWV ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO GET LEFT
BEHIND AND CUTOFF FROM LONGWV TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS ENERGY COULD BECOME A PLAYER LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WEST UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH FOR
MORE ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME OTHER TO ACKNOWLEDGE ITS PRESENCE. NONETHELESS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SLOWLY DRIES OUT FROM RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND HEIGHTS
RISE. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY AVOID VAULTING BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IF WE CAN HOLD OFF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
REBUILDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 83 65 75 60 / 30 50 60 60 30
TULIA 65 84 65 78 63 / 30 50 60 60 30
PLAINVIEW 70 86 65 80 63 / 20 50 60 60 30
LEVELLAND 67 87 67 80 65 / 20 40 60 60 40
LUBBOCK 71 89 67 80 66 / 20 40 60 60 40
DENVER CITY 66 90 68 81 67 / 20 30 60 60 40
BROWNFIELD 69 90 68 82 67 / 20 30 60 60 40
CHILDRESS 74 91 71 87 67 / 30 50 50 50 20
SPUR 70 92 70 84 68 / 20 40 50 50 30
ASPERMONT 72 94 71 88 70 / 20 30 50 50 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE
AND CHANCE OF IMPACT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS. VFR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. LCL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN TSRA. A PERIOD OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL REMOVE MVFR
CIGS FROM TAFS DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INHIBITING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN SYNTHETIC FOG/LOW
CLOUD PRODUCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...MAINLY FROM
THE S AND SE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FCST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM...12Z RUC AND
00Z HIRES SOLUTIONS ALL FCST LOW QPF ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA AS DEPICTED BY THE BLENDED
TOTAL PW PRODUCT. REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...
A STRATUS DECK AT 1100-1500FT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPO FILLING-IN TO BKN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE AND INLAND PROGRESSION AS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED...BUT AREAL COVERAGE STILL REMAINS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION AT KSAT/KSSF/KAUS AT THIS TIME. SFC
WINDS THIS MORNING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SW-RLY
COMPONENT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE BEFORE 17Z. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS SINCE MID MAY...
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM FORECAST
SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING FOR LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY...THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FIELD FROM 700 TO 300 HPA
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA TROF MOVES
TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE 500 HPA
HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST...MAKING THE HEIGHT
FIELD ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKEN...AND SETTING UP
MORE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PEARSALL.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN STILL SHOW
IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS...IN A PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 500 HPA RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE
FROM TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA
TROF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND NOT MOVE AWAY QUICKLY IN THE
LIGHT WIND FIELD ALOFT...TYPICAL OF JULY. WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS INCREASING AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...KEPT A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK FRONT OR MESO
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY...KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AS THE
WEAKNESS THE HEIGHT FIELD FROM THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF CONTINUES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD VARY FROM
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM
DATA AND FORECASTS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF NEAR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 75 95 75 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 94 73 92 / 10 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 94 74 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 96 72 93 / 10 10 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 73 92 73 91 / 30 20 30 30 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 95 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 96 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FCST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM...12Z RUC AND
00Z HIRES SOLUTIONS ALL FCST LOW QPF ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA AS DEPICTED BY THE BLENDED
TOTAL PW PRODUCT. REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...
A STRATUS DECK AT 1100-1500FT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPO FILLING-IN TO BKN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE AND INLAND PROGRESSION AS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED...BUT AREAL COVERAGE STILL REMAINS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION AT KSAT/KSSF/KAUS AT THIS TIME. SFC
WINDS THIS MORNING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SW-RLY
COMPONENT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE BEFORE 17Z. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS SINCE MID MAY...
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM FORECAST
SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING FOR LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY...THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FIELD FROM 700 TO 300 HPA
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA TROF MOVES
TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE 500 HPA
HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST...MAKING THE HEIGHT
FIELD ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKEN...AND SETTING UP
MORE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PEARSALL.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN STILL SHOW
IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS...IN A PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 500 HPA RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE
FROM TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA
TROF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND NOT MOVE AWAY QUICKLY IN THE
LIGHT WIND FIELD ALOFT...TYPICAL OF JULY. WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS INCREASING AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...KEPT A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK FRONT OR MESO
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY...KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AS THE
WEAKNESS THE HEIGHT FIELD FROM THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF CONTINUES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD VARY FROM
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM
DATA AND FORECASTS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF NEAR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 75 95 75 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 94 73 92 / 10 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 94 74 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 96 72 93 / 10 10 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 73 92 73 91 / 30 20 30 30 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 95 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 96 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
436 PM PDT Sun Jul 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually hot temperatures will continue over the region through
Monday...with only minor relief afterward as high temperatures
remain above average for the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms
will be common tonight through Monday night over much of the area.
More thunderstorms are possible mainly over mountains through
much of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge has reached its full amplitude over the
Inland NW this afternoon and the result has been the hottest day
the region has seen for quite sometime. The heat has combined with
dewpoints in the 50s resulting in some impressive CAPE values
across the region. The most favorable CAPEs will be found across
the southeast corner of WA into the southern ID Panhandle this
evening...as the RUC and NAM are showing values ranging from
1000-1500 j/kg with only weak convective capping in place. Whether
or not heating over the higher terrain can overcome this cap isn`t
certain. The more likely scenario is the convection firing over EC
Oregon and C Idaho will drift ENE during the evening...impacting
the SE corner of our forecast area. The other location which could
see convection fire this evening would be along the
Cascades...where CAPE values are also running above 1000 j/kg. CIN
or convective caps are even stronger in along the crest so dirunal
heating may not be enough to trigger any storms. Seems better
chances in the Cascades will be tied to the shortwave trough
currently moving northward through central Oregon. The latest HRRR
suggests this round of thunderstorms will begin by late evening
and gradually spread east-northeast overnight.
Monday through Wednesday...The active thunderstorm pattern will
continue Monday with a continued moist southerly flow aloft over
a hot and unstable air mass. NAM and GFS models both indicate
another short wave disturbance entering the region from the south
late Monday...with impressive dynamic support compliments of a
mutually supporting jet couplet focusing strong upper level
divergence this time over the eastern half of the forecast area
mainly Monday evening...but the air mass will remain so unstable
that any subtle triggering mechanism will be sufficient to
generate a storm just about anywhere in the forecast area during
the day Monday as well. Heavy precipitable water values in excess
of 1 inch will fuel this convection...but the low level air mass
will remain quite dry with soundings indicating an inverted "V"
structure. This will promote gusty winds radiating outward from
initial thunderstorms forming over northeast Oregon or the Blues
Monday afternoon. Gust fronts from these storms will likely
trigger further cells over the eastern basin and Idaho Panhandle
through the evening hours. Farther west in the deep basin and
Cascades thunderstorm coverage will probably be less dense...but
still active. The transiting short wave will cause the flow aloft
to become more southwesterly and shift the low level thermal ridge
eastward on Tuesday. This will bring a marginal moderation in the
hot weather on Tuesday but still very warm and certainly well
above average. The thunderstorm threat on Tuesday will follow the
850mb Thermal axis eastward and mainly impact the Idaho Panhandle.
On Wednesday a weak post-wave upper level ridge will build over
the region and allow High temperatures to bump back up a couple
degrees under the re-establishing thermal trough and with a drier
air mass promoting a more efficient heating of the low level
layer. A small residual thunderstorm threat will remain Wednesday
mainly over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle. /Fugazzi
Wednesday night through Sunday...The ridge of high pressure will
hold strong for one more day before starting to breakdown due to the
presence of an approaching Pacific trough. Wednesday night and
Thursday will be mostly dry with valley high temperatures in the
90s. By Thursday night the trough will be near the PacNW coast,
ushering in moisture on southwest flow. Models are coming into
better agreement in the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. While
there are still considerable differences in the track of the low
pressure center, it appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have settled
on Friday for the trough to come inland. PoPs have been raised above
climo for much of the forecast area for the end of the workweek with
the focus remaining on the higher terrain. The moisture tap does not
look particularly impressive but it is forecast to be 120 to 180
percent of normal. The southeast zones could also gain the benefit of
monsoonal moisture surging up from the south. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the trough passage. For the weekend,
model solutions diverge quite a bit. The forecast trends toward the
EC, which shows cooler and drier conditions in northwest flow. The
GFS has a closed low settling over the region. This is a less likely
scenario, but not totally out of the realm of possibilities. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms still expected to arrive late this evening and continue
through Monday. The thunderstorms will likely produce abundant
lightning strikes and based on the high cloud bases could produce
good wind gust potential as well. The one problem is the storms
could also produce a decent amount of rain per preciptable water
values nearly double the seasonal normals. Nonetheless it won`t
take much to get a fire started in the finer fuels across the
Cascade Valleys and Columbia Basin per input from the land
agencies. Based on additional fuel intelligence...we also decided
to include the Methow and Okanogan Valleys in the red flag
warning. Thunderstorm chances will begin to wane during the late
Monday afternoon near the Cascades as a weak cold front pushes
through. This results in an increase of northwest
winds...particularly in the Kittitas Valley which could exacerbate
any fires which start earlier in the day. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR cigs and vsbys will prevail over the Inland NW through
the next 24 hours will high pressue in place. Will be concerned
about mid/high level moisture streaming in from the south and
interacting with instability aloft to lead to elevated convection
overnight and into Monday. The most likely paths of convection will
span from the Blue Mtns into the ID panhandle and affecting KLWS and
KPUW this evening. Another area will be near the Cascades affecting
KEAT and partially KMWH with the best chance of measureable pcpn.
By Monday, the threat for convection will press westward and most
TAF sites are bound to experience thunder especially in the late
afternoon with light pcpn and gusty winds. /rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 97 67 91 64 92 / 10 20 50 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 97 63 89 60 89 / 10 20 50 20 20 10
Pullman 61 94 60 89 57 90 / 10 30 50 20 10 10
Lewiston 72 102 69 99 67 100 / 20 30 50 20 10 20
Colville 57 100 60 94 58 91 / 10 20 50 30 10 10
Sandpoint 55 95 59 87 57 87 / 10 20 60 30 20 20
Kellogg 61 96 60 88 57 89 / 20 20 50 30 30 20
Moses Lake 69 100 67 99 63 98 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
Wenatchee 72 99 68 96 65 97 / 30 30 20 10 0 0
Omak 65 100 63 98 61 96 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday
for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East
Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
239 PM PDT Sat Jul 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A big warm up is on the way. Some of the hottest weather in the
last couple of years is anticipated Sunday and Monday. A few
locations in the Inland Northwest will flirt with record heat.
Thunderstorm chances will be slowly increasing through the weekend
and into next week with the greatest risk for thunder in the
short-term arriving Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures remain
above normal through much of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge retrogression will continue overnight
allowing moisture to continue its northward advection toward the
forecast area. This will also result in decreased atmospheric
stability which could bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the Inland NW. Models are consistent in keeping the
best chances reserved for the SE corner of Washington into the
central Idaho Panhandle through the evening. The latest visible
satellite imagery continues shows decent convective development
over the higher terrain of NE Oregon and central Idaho. We suspect
this activity will drift north-northeast during the evening as a
weak upper level disturbance seen on the water vapor imagery over
EC Oregon heads this way. Whether or not the convection can
successfully move off the mountains and maintain its intensity for
thunderstorms this evening across our forecast area is no
given...the latest run of the HRRR suggests this possibility. The
activity should wane by late evening...however there could be
another batch of elevated sprinkles toward morning...over the
extreme southern portion of our forecast area. This activity shows
up in response to a weak shortwave trough...currently off the
central California coast. Not sure convection will come this far
north by daybreak...however at a minimum we will likely see some
accas clouds moving in from the south. fx
Sunday through Tuesday...Reasonable model agreement exists and
satellite extrapolation suggests models have a decent handle on
the field of motion over and upwind of the forecast area through
the end of the short term. In general southerly flow will hold
sway over the region through Sunday and Monday as the forecast
area bakes under the northwest flank of a sprawling upper level
high over the central United States. A surface thermal trough is
now established over the forecast area and will promote light and
largely terrain driven winds through Tuesday. This flow regime
will lead to further increases in temperatures...with most
locations flirting with record high temperatures either on Sunday
or Monday...some locations both days.
Thunderstorm potential will be the tricky part of the forecast. Model
soundings indicate very unstable conditions aloft through Sunday
and Monday...but also indicate a few hundred Joules of CIN in the
lower layers which should suppress convection in the absence of any
well defined upper forcing. Thus during the daytime periods the
best convective threat will likely exist over mountains...with the
valleys and basin simply baking under mostly sunny/partly cloudy
skies. Moisture will be very much available with slugs of
impressive precipitable water transiting the region through
Monday. In this air mass the conditions will be ripe for scattered
thunderstorm activity if a forcing agent is available...and
both the NAM and GFS transit a pair of short waves through the
region from south to north on Sunday evening and Monday evening.
The Sunday evening wave appears to bring the highest threat to the
deep basin and Cascades between 00Z and 12Z...while the second
wave focuses it`s dynamic forcing over the southeast and Idaho
Panhandle on Monday evening. While the best chance for nocturnal
convection will lay over these primary threat regions...the air
mass is so unstable aloft...particularly Monday night...that a
stray storm is possible just about anywhere in this flow regime.
By Tuesday the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly and
progressive...still hot but high temperatures should back down a
few degrees on Tuesday not by means of any noticeable cold front
but through a weakening and eastward shift of the thermal trough
axis. The southwesterly flow will help shunt the deep moisture
eastward with a residual thunderstorm threat mainly over the
southeastern zones and Idaho Panhandle...but with coverage
mainly isolated and mainly confined to the mountains due to the
lack of any appreciable forcing. /Fugazzi
Tuesday through Saturday...The region will continue to be under the
influence of a strong ridge of high pressure with temperatures
running several degrees above seasonal normals. Some mid-level
monsoonal moisture will ride the periphery of the 4-corners high,
brushing the southeast zones and fostering some elevated convection
each day starting at the NE Blue Mts and spreading into the Camas
Prairie and Idaho Panhandle Mts. There will also be some weak
impulses of shortwave energy rolling over the top of the ridge that
could kick off some showers and thunderstorms across the northern
tier if there is enough moisture associated with the shortwaves. In
general, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
much of the elevated terrain each day throughout the extended
forecast period. Models are still having difficulties with the
timing of the breakdown of the ridge which may come as early as
Friday, or hold off until the weekend. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Interesting scenario coming to the area as good chance of
thunderstorms arrives late Sunday through Monday. The
thunderstorms will produce a good outbreak of lightning but not
sure what impact this will have on the fuels and any potential
fires. If this were a typical year the fuels would be cured over
most locations and it would be an easy decision to issue a broad
brush fire weather watch. However that`s not the case and most of
the fuels are still far from cured. The only exceptions are found
over the Columbia Basin and the valleys in the lee of the southern
Washington Cascades...namely the Kittitas...Yakima...and Wenatchee
Valleys. Over the past couple days we`ve seen two wildfires in the
Cascade Valleys...without any meteorological help so obviously
those fuels are ready. Per agency input...it seems the finer fuels
in these areas are receptive at or below 3.5-4k feet...however
they are having a tough time sustaining at higher elevations in
the heavier fuels. Meanwhile most of the Columbia Basin is
sufficiently dry. So based on the significant lighting threat
...we will go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for Fire Zones
676...677...and 673 for Late Sunday through Monday. Not sure how
far any potential fire starts will get since winds shouldn`t be an
issue. Also based on high precipitable water values...it would
seem most of the storms should produce a decent amount of
rainfall. But based on the number of expected lightning strikes it
seems prudent to issue a watch at this time. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all taf sites through 18z
Sun as ridge continues to build over region. Main wx of
consequence will be associated with an area of potential
instability fixed over SE WA/NC ID. This could support some isold
-tsra...but most of the activity will occur se of KPUW and KLWS
between now and this evening. Overnight...the upper level flow
backs to a southerly orientation which will allow some of this
unstable air to infiltrate the remainder of the TAF sites. Isold
-shra/-tsra will be possible for KLWS KPUW KGEG KSFF and KCOE aft
09-12z...but chances of any hitting these sites is too small to
mention in fcst. For KMWH and KEAT there could be some --shra
during the latter portions of the fcst. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 65 97 67 97 67 95 / 0 10 10 10 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 60 95 62 96 64 93 / 0 10 10 10 30 20
Pullman 58 96 59 95 60 92 / 10 10 20 10 30 20
Lewiston 69 102 70 102 70 101 / 10 20 20 20 30 20
Colville 54 99 59 101 60 98 / 0 10 10 20 30 20
Sandpoint 51 93 56 95 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 30 20
Kellogg 58 94 59 95 59 90 / 20 20 10 10 30 20
Moses Lake 62 102 67 102 66 101 / 0 10 30 20 20 10
Wenatchee 67 100 68 99 68 98 / 0 10 30 20 20 10
Omak 58 100 63 100 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
677)-East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-
East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...
1007 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND EXTENDED
FROM NEAR KACQ TO KAUW AT 03Z. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WHERE IT HAS RAINED TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 60S FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA AS THIS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHICH WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. HAVE LET THE HEAT
ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED FOR ALL BUT CLAYTON AND GRANT COUNTIES.
LINE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN AN AXIS OF AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA APPEARS TO BE AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE 07.00Z HRRR SUGGEST
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE LINE COULD SURVIVE AHEAD OF THE SOUTH
DAKOTA WAVE AND SINK TO ABOUT I90 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
06.12 MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM AND HOLDING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDING OVER
EASTERN CANADA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. IT WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE...WITH
DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS AND
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH KRST RIGHT ABOUT 06Z. FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR
KLSE A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER AROUND 08Z. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LINE OF
CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 850 FRONTOGENESIS.
THE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST AND A LITTLE SOUTHEAST AND IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. KLSE MAY HAVE A
SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING A VCTS BUT EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT ONLY BRINGS IT ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS KBCK. STILL AN
ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOWER VFR CEILINGS SO HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THIS MIXES OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1007 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ061.
MN...NONE.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
SETS UP TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A STEADY LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND MIXED LAYER IN THE
FIRST 1 KFT OVER THE REGION HAS MAINTAINED VERY WARM TEMPS AROUND 80
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATION OVERNIGHT. INLAND AREAS DIPPING TO THE
UPPER 70S BUT TEMPS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES E OF U.S. 17
NORTH OF SAVANNAH...AND THIS INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT.
WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POP S OF DUBLIN GEORGIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO A REGION WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO 925 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WAS ONGOING UNDER A POCKET OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SOMEWHERE S OF I-16 PRIOR TO DAWN
IN OUR WESTERN GEORGIA ZONES BUT COVERAGE SPOTTY AT BEST.
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY BUT SUBTLE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SIGNAL A CHANGE IS
IN THE OFFING. THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WE THINK SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY MIDDAY.
BY 6 PM...THERE LIKELY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ONGOING
OVER OUR REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
I-95 SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR IN SE GEORGIA AND THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS GOOD TO OUR
NW AND N WITH THE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS N CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY PUNY 0-3 KM CAPE
REGIONS AND A LINGERING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR OUR REGION. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS
IN MANY AREAS WITH PERSISTENCE TRENDING TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S PRODUCING HEAT INDICES 104-108 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL BE SURGING INLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...POSSIBLY NUDGING INDICES VERY CLOSE TO
110 DEGREES BRIEFLY...JUST INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS EVENING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP EYES ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE
MID LEVELS RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA. CAPPED BUOYANCY IN THE
ELEVATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
THE NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR THEMES BUT OF COURSE DIFFER ON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION/LOCATION. IF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTS...IT
COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN LOCALLY SEVERE WITH WET DAMAGING MICROBURSTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS WITH ANY CONVECTION BY DAWN
LIKELY ALONG OR OFF COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL
CONVERGENCE AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTIONS. ANOTHER WARM MORNING ON
TUE BUT READINGS SHOULD JUST A BIT LOWER THAN MON MORNING. A LIGHT
OVERNIGHT SW BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST FOR ALL BUT INLAND LOCATIONS
ALONG/S OF I-16.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE 850 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN SC DURING THE DAY BUT
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE WILL BE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES VIA
COMPRESSION. WE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF WHERE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SW TO LOWER
90S FAR NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN
AREAS WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO FURTHER INCREASE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING
THE PERIOD BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND WE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE ROBUST SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. FOR THIS REASON WE
HAVE 40 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A DIMINISHING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVELS WARM AND A STRONGER CAP SETS UP. WE SHOW A
DECREASING POP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/10. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TSTMS AROUND
THE KCHS THIS EVENING AS HINTED BY THE NAM MODEL...OTHERWISE
CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IT SEEMS THAT EACH NOCTURNAL SURGE THE PAST 3 NIGHTS HAS GOTTEN
INCREMENTALLY STRONGER AND NOW THE FRONT TO OUR N IS A PLAYER IN
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT. WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
THE DECREASING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TREND THEN INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY. THE SURGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
OVERNIGHT MAY BE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THIS MORNING. CERTAINLY
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...A BIT
HIGHER NEAR BUOY 41004 DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES. OVERALL THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
OF OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 9...
KCHS... 80/1998
KCHL... 85/1998
KSAV... 80/1883
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS TO THE KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS WILL BE MINOR AND BRIEF...POSSIBLY A DROP IN CEILING TO
MVFR AS A SHOWER PASSES. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END BY MID
DAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
FROM FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLD TSRA BTWN CYPL/CYQT. AT THE SFC...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTED OVER THE CWA. IR LOOP SHOWED PATCHY MID
CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI AND SOME STRATUS FROM ONTONAGON TO IWD THAT HAD
MOVED IN OFF OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS (600-700 MB INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB) ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE CYPL SHRTWV
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
CNTRL UPPER MI THAT COULD SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8K FT AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TSRA DEVELOP.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS IN PRODUCING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...LEFT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
STARTING 12Z TUE...THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W CONUS EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN CANADA. ALSO...THERE WILL
BE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E CANADA AND E CONUS...INCLUDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE CWA UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THERE WILL BE THE USUAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
TO THE SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NW. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER JET FOCUSES WELL N OF THE CONUS. BY
THU...THE N PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND FAR NCENTRAL CONUS /INCLUDING OVER THE CWA/.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED SE OFF THE
CWA...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO E/CENTRAL CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN...BRINGING INCREASED SLY FLOW
AS A SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THE PRECIP ASPECT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY. NO ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH SUN...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
THROUGH THU INLAND IF ANY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
DAYS. ALSO...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO PUT SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THU THROUGH SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR IWD OVERNIGHT. SCT- BKN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AT CMX. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR SAWYER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO SCATTER AROUND MID MORNING ON MONDAY WHILE
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN FROM A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION...BUT MAY
BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOCAL IFR/MVFR MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. ELSEWHERE VFR IS
EXPECTED IN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS MONDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ALOFT
CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ACROSS SERN
COLO/WRN KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR. SATELITTE
SHOWS THE BEST SFC FOCUS DOWN THAT WAY WITH THE CU FIELD STREAMING WESTWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO SWRN NEB WHICH SHOULD GREATLY
STABILIZE THE ATM. STILL...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE FCST
HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA INDICATED SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THE 3KM AGL LEVEL FROM THE WSR-88D RADAR WIND PROFILES
SHOWED A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL END OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...THE SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE WEST...UPPER FLOW OVER
NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORES NORTHERLY. THEN WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA.
THE FIRST OF THE WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP AROUND THIS EVENINGS MCV WHICH IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CLAY COUNTY. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...BUT INCLUDED ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER JUST IN CASE AS
IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO SCATTER AROUND MID MORNING ON MONDAY WHILE
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN FROM A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION...BUT MAY
BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EARLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEFORE DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WAS SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGAN TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT RANGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESCEND ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME
INCREASED LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A MORE DEVELOPED REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE FIRST FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
ALTHOUGH THE 4 KM WRF IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD WITH THE QPF ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF
GENERATED ACROSS NEBRASKA SLIDING SOUTH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...EVEN
WITH GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LIKELY ALTHOUGH CHANCES POPS ARE MENTIONED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD...AS DOES
THE SURFACE HIGH. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE NAM LAGS A BIT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY USING BOIVERIFY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT EVEN BE LOWER. EVEN
STILL...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE 12Z GFS PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLATED
LOW QPF SPOTS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. OVERALL...OUR
AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...TO 89 TO 94
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT AND HAS A LITTLE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THUS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM HONESTLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
ADDING THESE SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING RAIN IS SO LOW AND AM WORRIED ABOUT GIVING FALSE HOPE TO AREA
FARMERS. IF IT DOES RAIN IT SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOP OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE
END...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECWMF IS DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE DAY
SUNDAY WHEN IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS
AGAIN SEEMS TO GIVE TOO MUCH FALSE HOPE OF RAIN WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF LOW END QPF. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TOO
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
417 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT/
WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...PRETTY HARD TO FIND IN WIND FIELDS...DEFINED A BIT
BETTER WITH 925 HPA THETA E...AND LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR AND BEHIND. SUBTLETY RULES IN THIS PATTERN AS HAS BEEN
EVIDENCED WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND
MAY BE THAT TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION TO THIS. WEAK CHANNELLED VORT
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ONE WAVE MOVING ALONG RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER PICKUP IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE KMML AREA. OF NOTE IN LAST HOUR OR TWO IS THE
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS AXIS...MAINLY ALONG AREAS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBTLE INCREASE IN PV ADVECTION. MIGHT BE THIS IS
WHAT NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO PICK UP ON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIFT
AXIS WITH NUISANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. RETAINED SOME ISOLATED LEVEL POPS FOR REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT THAT OTHER
THAN CLOUDS...SHOULD END UP WITH A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD AFTER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INDICATIONS ARE
MOISTURE POOLING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THROUGH
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS ENTIRE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD. AXIS
OF DIV Q REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH THIS AREA...AND DID INTRODUCE A
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDER SOUTHWEST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
IDA GROVE LINE. DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKENING OF LIFT FORCING SHOULD
END PRECIP BY AROUND SUNSET.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD END
UP WITH COOLISH NIGHT...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE
AREA. NAM STRONGEST WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WHICH PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THIS FAIRLY
ALONE WITH DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...DID NOT MESS UP THE
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO OR JUST ABOVE MAX MIXING
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS...AND HAVE KEPT
GENERAL RULE OF FOLLOWING WARMER GUIDANCE /AND LARGER DIURNAL RANGE/
FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HARD TO FIND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH AREA
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG RIDGE. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPACT OF
WAVE COMING OVER RIDGE WILL START TO ENHANCE THE DIV Q ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ADVANCES AND LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ECMWF AND GFS...
WHILE QUITE SIMILAR ON THE LONG WAVE FORECAST...REALLY COULD NOT
PROVE TO BE MUCH MORE DIFFERENT IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE INTENT ON HOLDING LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TO 7-10C FOR
925 HPA TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
YEAR...AND GIVEN THE HISTORY AND DRYNESS...EXPECT THAT A WARMER
SOLUTION SHOULD BE PREFERRED. FAIRLY COOL 700 HPA TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO AS IMPACT OF WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE
AND SHEARING IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DIV Q LINGERS FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
GOING STARTING EARLY THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST...AND EXITING THE
NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...WITH A FORECAST SHIFT TOWARD A STRONGER
ECMWF FLAVOR...THAT WE COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING BACK SOME NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS
TO THE WESTERN CWA. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z EAST OF I29. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY NEAR KCDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IN UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM JUST EAST OF DEVELOPING
WESTERN RIDGE. CHANGED KCDS TAF SLIGHTLY FOR VCTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TEMPO -TSRA. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE. RETAINED PROB30 THUNDER
CHANCES BOTH TAF SITES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO
MORE DEFINITE SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...
SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING TOWARDS BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THESE WILL HELP ESTABLISH MORE
DEFINITE NORTHEAST COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...DIFFICULT HOWEVER TO
DETERMINE WHICH ONE AT THIS POINT IS MORE THE ACTUAL FRONT. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE STILL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING
ACROSS KLBB AGAIN BY MID EVENING FOLLOWING ONE OF THESE OUTFLOWS
THOUGH DIFFERS FROM WRF/NAM IN THIS REGARDS. ALSO...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...IN BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS...APPEARS IT
MAY REMAIN EAST OF KLBB. WE DID RETAIN THE VCTS AT KCDS THIS EVENING
AND VCSH THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL COMPLEX MORE IN-
LINE WITH BRUSHING BY KCDS. ANYWAY...THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OUT SO WE WILL
UPDATE IF/WHEN THEY APPEAR CAPABLE OF HITTING/MISSING EITHER SITE.
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH FOR PROB30 THUNDER
GROUPS TO BE ADDED TO BOTH SITES FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING 36 HOURS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY HAS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WAS UP A NOTCH FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MODEST WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500
J/KG...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND OVERALL STEERING FLOW WAS WEAK.
THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY
PULSED UP TO STRONG LEVELS...THOUGH THEY HAVE COLLAPSED JUST AS
QUICKLY...WITH NEW REDEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING A LONG ANTICIPATED SHIFT...WITH
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COMING 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL HELP TO BEND THE RESIDUAL MONSOONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A POSITIVE PV ANOMALY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
ZONES...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK OUTFLOW AIDED/MASKED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EASE
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE SFC WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT IN BETTER MOISTURE LEVEL AT/NEAR
THE SFC. ALL OF THESE FACTORS TOGETHER WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BEFORE
THEN...EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE COULD KEEP A LITTLE ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT...FAVORING
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. DO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THAT SAID...THE ENTIRE AREA STANDS A GOOD
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE RAISED POPS SOLIDLY
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED 40-60
PERCENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE
UP SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS...BUT AGAIN THE WEAK SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. INSTEAD...SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER MONDAY AFTER ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO VARY FROM THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
80S ACROSS THE NW ZONES TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SE ZONES.
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWV TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THE PERIOD OF DEEPEST LIFT WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200J/KG
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED SFC HEATING WILL REDUCE THE OVERALL THREAT.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE AREA ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND BEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AL TOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GENERAL
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE PWATS AVERAGE 1.5"-1.75" WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAY TUE THEN TAPERED OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECIDED ALSO TO ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO GRIDS GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM
MOTION.
ALL SHORT-MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRIER AIR
WORKING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AS NRLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATES INTO FAR SW TX. ADDITIONAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED BUT
OVERALL LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DRIER AIR PRECLUDES MUCH IN
WAY OF POPS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS LINGERING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM SE
NM INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST
INTO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOME SHORTWV ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO GET LEFT
BEHIND AND CUTOFF FROM LONGWV TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS ENERGY COULD BECOME A PLAYER LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WEST UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH FOR
MORE ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME OTHER TO ACKNOWLEDGE ITS PRESENCE. NONETHELESS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SLOWLY DRIES OUT FROM RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND HEIGHTS
RISE. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY AVOID VAULTING BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IF WE CAN HOLD OFF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
REBUILDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 83 65 75 60 / 30 50 60 60 30
TULIA 65 84 65 78 63 / 30 50 60 60 30
PLAINVIEW 70 86 65 80 63 / 20 50 60 60 30
LEVELLAND 67 87 67 80 65 / 20 40 60 60 40
LUBBOCK 71 89 67 80 66 / 20 40 60 60 40
DENVER CITY 66 90 68 81 67 / 20 30 60 60 40
BROWNFIELD 69 90 68 82 67 / 20 30 60 60 40
CHILDRESS 74 91 71 87 67 / 30 50 50 50 20
SPUR 70 92 70 84 68 / 20 40 50 50 30
ASPERMONT 72 94 71 88 70 / 20 30 50 50 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN OR FOUR CORNERS
REGION THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER HIGH TRYING TO REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE NAM HOLDS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT UP
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS...WHILE THE RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GRIDS. WILL EXPAND THE POPS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE TONIGHT PERIOD AND UPDATE
WIND GRIDS BASED ON POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT ONGOING FORECAST LOOS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH
THE LATEST NAM DATA AND UPDATE THE 20 FOOT WINDS.
ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 5
TO 15 KNOTS.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. WITH NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS HIGH THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN DECREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AFTER
THIS...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SHORTWAVE OR UPPER LEVEL
LOW RIDING BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
NF
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
MPH...AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BRINGING MOISTURE TO DRIER FUELS AROUND
THE PANHANDLES.
NF/JG
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHWEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A LOW CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND. FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
THIS FLOW EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS TROUGH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/THIS PAST EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO TOWARD THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
AS OF 3 AM.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE REGION FROM ONTARIO/MANITOBA. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TAKING THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN IMPACT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION/CAP AROUND 700MB
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN RATHER STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. BASED ON THIS STRONGER
SIGNAL AND NAM 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE...DECIDED TO
ADD SMALL-END SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INDICATED IN THE THU/FRI TIME
PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE GFS WHICH TENDS TO OVER-DO CONVECTION PAINTS SOME LIGHT
QPF ON US BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH DRY FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
APPEARS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S/NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS POPPED UP THIS EVENING ON THE WEAK BOUNDARY
PRODUCED BY THE EARLY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. SOME OF THESE NORTH
OF KRST LOOKED LIKE THEY WOULD BE WITHIN 10NM FOR THE INCLUSION OF
A VCSH...BUT THESE ARE DISSIPATING NOW AS RAPIDLY AS THEY FORMED
AND DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THEM. WILL HOLD ONTO
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE REMAINS OF THE
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE NORTH 5 TO 10
KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
458 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THOUGH DOES
INDICATE DRIER AIR ACROSS WYOMING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED POPCORN SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WITH SATELLITE DATA INDICATING CLOUD TOP WARMING WITH THE
DIMINISHING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
EARLY THIS MORNING...MODELS CONTINUING TO BE OVERDONE WITH
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR NSSL WRF WHICH HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH LAST NIGHTS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION KEEPING A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FLOW WITH
H5 WINDS PROGGED BETWEEN 10-15KTS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THOUGH BEST MOISTURE GETS PUSHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ACROSS WYOMING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH NO EVIDENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...CONVECTION
LOOKS TO MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP
CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS MOVING TODAY AND NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR REMAINING VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
COOL MOIST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -MW
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ON TUESDAY...WE START TO TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AROUND SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL START TO TRANSITION BACK TOWARD
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AROUND THIS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN ON MONDAY BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HEAT WAVE WILL RETURN. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON WILL RETURN. THIS SHOULD BRING AN UPSWING IN
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WALDO CANYON FIRE SCAR WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. LW
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION MAINLY
TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AND HAS ACTED TO
BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEA-BOARD. THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT RELIEF TO SOME
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/FL PENINSULA. THE MAIN SUPPRESSION FROM
THIS RIDGE HOWEVER IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...AND THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING IS SHOWING A MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION. THE PW VALUE OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS
APPROACHING 1.90"...WHICH IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES ARE IN THE 126-129K RANGE...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT AT NORMAL
LEVELS FOR JULY...AND CERTAINLY NOT HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE COLUMNS.
IF THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN OUR PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING OUR GRADIENT
LIGHT AND OUR FLOW DOMINATED BY NOCTURNAL/MORNING LAND BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZES.
REST OF TODAY...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SE GULF IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAND BREEZE
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD AND IS NOW GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY AND WILL BEGIN TO
SEE THE LAND BREEZE SHUT DOWN AND BE REPLACED BY A SEA-BREEZE OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BEGIN INITIATING SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES...GENERALLY AFTER 1PM. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
COVERAGE WITH 30-40% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 50% WILL BE FOUND DOWNS TOWARD PUNTA GORDA/FT
MYERS...WHERE THE MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAWN...EXPECTING THE DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO BE
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET UP DECENT COVERAGE OF
NOCTURNAL/MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN AT THE BEACHES...AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
WE WILL REPEAT THE CYCLE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY WITH EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE LANDMASS. ENJOY THE REST OF
YOUR MONDAY!
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST...EXCEPT
SHIFTING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN WILL DRIFT NORTH SOME FROM
MID WEEK ON. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
SEAS AND AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 93 77 91 77 / 30 30 50 30
FMY 92 75 92 75 / 50 30 60 30
GIF 95 74 93 75 / 30 30 50 30
SRQ 91 75 90 75 / 40 30 50 30
BKV 94 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 30
SPG 92 80 90 79 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED STORMS BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE...
TODAY...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EVIDENT ON MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS.
A VERY LIGHT WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WAS AFFECTING ONLY THE FAR
NORTH. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 1000-850 MB
RIDGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH DIFFERENCE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM TAMPA (1.87) VERSUS CANAVERAL (1.47). THIS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHICH LED TO DELAYED AND
SUBDUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AT CANAVERAL...MINUS 7 AT 500 MB...WHILE TAMPA WAS NEARLY 3 DEGREES
COOLER...MINUS 9.
GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS HIGHER VALUES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
SO THE DRY RIBBON THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
DAYS IS APPARENTLY SHRINKING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE SINCE THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH TO OUR NORTH THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. STILL...WATER VAPOR SHOWS
AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ADVECTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
THINK THAT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE DEEP CONVECTION
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH PORTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE WHICH HAD NOTHING YESTERDAY. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
SEEN ON THE CANAVERAL SOUNDING AND/OR 700 MB TEMPS AT 8 TO 9 DEGREES
CELSIUS SHOULD PRECLUDE EARLY DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING 20 PERCENT INLAND AND 30 PERCENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR LOOKS GOOD.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING IN THE OVERALL DRIER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH HAIL NEAR ONE INCH AND WET
MICROBURSTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
CUMULUS FORM. DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO WARRANT VICINITY THUNDER MENTION...EXPECT MAYBE FOR KDAB.
WILL NEED TO ADD THIS TO SOME OF THE INTERIOR TERMINALS THOUGH AND
MAYBE EVEN A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AT A FEW. ANY OF THE INTERIOR STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WILL CONTINUE...EXCEPT FOR A NOCTURNAL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1140 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...CORRECTION
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE UPDATE...NETWORK ISSUES HAVE BEEN SOLVED.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE
ISSUES RESOLVING CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA FOR TODAY. SEVERAL
HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR LATER. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
LARGELY WITH THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AT THIS
POINT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP UNTIL 12Z.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE KEY PLAYERS WILL BE A SFC FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOME GULF MOISTURE NOSING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR MS/LA. LATEST
NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BEING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER
BY 00Z TUESDAY. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATED THAT THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 18Z YESTERDAY... HOWEVER
THERE WAS LIKELY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS NOT PROGGED TO DIG MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT BY MIDWEEK AND ANY SHORTWAVES
TRACKING ALONG THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE WITH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. IT SEEMS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO START WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 18-21Z WHEN DAYTIME
HEATING TYPICALLY TRIGGERS CONVECTION SO TRENDED POPS UPWARD DURING
THE DAY FROM LOW CHANCE BEFORE 18Z IN THE NORTH TO HIGH END CHANCE
AFTERWARD AND SLIGHT STAYING SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SAUNTER
SOUTHWARD JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO NORTH GA BY TUESDAY SO FELT
LIKELY POPS WERE BETTER JUSTIFIED IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING THAN TODAY.
DECENT CAPE VALUES WITH WEAK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE MAIN STORM THREATS
OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ALLOW CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL PAST
SUNSET AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS PROGGED PW VALUES ARE UP
NEAR 1.80 INCHES... AND A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... HOWEVER HPC HAS
THE HIGHER QPF JUST PAST THE SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT WILL GREATLY DICTATE WHERE
THE GREATEST STORM INFLUENCE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS THIS WEEK
SO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE OR THE LACK THEREOF WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE AND
RAISED THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY HIGHS AS
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST WITH ANY
INFLUENCING CLOUD COVER OR OUTFLOW LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR THE LOW 90S IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST... WITH VALUES 2-4
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY GET. OVERALL
THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...FAVORING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH HIGHER POPS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.
41
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
LOOK TO STAY NEARLY WEST AT 10KTS OR LESS AND A FEW SITES
INCLUDING KATL COULD GUST UP TO NEAR 18KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5-7 KFT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SCT
TO BKN BY 21Z ACROSS MOST AREAS BEFORE GOING BACK TO SCT040 NEAR
03Z TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMCN WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21-03Z THEREFORE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUP FOR THESE SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 97 71 92 72 / 30 30 50 50
ATLANTA 92 72 90 73 / 30 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 83 67 / 50 40 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 92 69 90 70 / 40 40 60 60
COLUMBUS 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 93 72 89 72 / 40 40 60 60
MACON 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 93 70 91 72 / 50 40 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 92 69 90 70 / 30 30 50 40
VIDALIA 98 76 97 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE UPDATE...NETWORK ISSUES HAVE BEEN SOLVED.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE
ISSUES RESOLVING CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA FOR TODAY. SEVERAL
HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR LATER. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
LARGELY WITH THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AT THIS
POINT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. OVER THE LAST WEEK OR MORE HAS FINALLY DAMPENED
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
US THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONING ITSELF
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH AND WESTERN GEORGIA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL USHER AMPLE MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE...AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE STATE
FROM THE TN VALLEY...THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT
HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND AS WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SEEN RECENTLY IN
THIS LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WET CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ON AND OFF RAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RAIN ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN IN RECENT WEEKS. WITH BEST MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...EXPECTING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
MONDAY...WHILE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE PRESENT EAST AND SOUTH. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...WHICH WILL CARRY INTO THE LONG
TERM.
31
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/ISSUED 404 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WITH
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE THE SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE MORE
DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN THE GFS VS ECMWF THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY AND
THEN BUILDS IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HOLDS THE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY FEATURE...WAVERING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT KEEPING IT DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...
MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AS
WELL AS ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA...ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TREND TOWARD JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
ATWELL/17
AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY SHOULD STAY ACROSS N/NW GA AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES. CIGS
WITHIN CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE HIGH END MVFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING W WINDS AT 7-10KTS THROUGH TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
TO 14-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
INCREASE TO 6-8KTS MONDAY AM. PRECIP CHANCES GREATER ON
MONDAY...BUT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
LOCATION...HAVE ONLY INCLUDE PROB30 FOR TS FOR 20-00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT KATL.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 97 71 92 72 / 30 30 50 50
ATLANTA 92 72 90 73 / 30 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 83 67 / 50 40 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 92 69 90 70 / 40 40 60 60
COLUMBUS 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 93 72 89 72 / 40 40 60 60
MACON 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 93 70 91 72 / 50 40 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 92 69 90 70 / 30 30 50 40
VIDALIA 98 76 97 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
947 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REFLECT BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NORTH BEFORE CU BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AND TO FINE
TUNE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF SHOWERS PRETTY SPOTTY AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND HAVE BACKED OFF PROBABILITIES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON LIKELY STARTING TO THE NORTH OF
THIS MORNINGS PRECIPITATION AREA AND DRIFTING SOUTH WHILE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE PRETTY SPOTTY AND THINK 20-30 POPS WILL BEST REFLECT COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
BOTH TAF SITES WITH KMCK MAYBE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRAY
SHOWER TO MOVE ACROSS. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO KEEP VCSH IN THIS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH AROUND
15Z OR 16Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD
COVER AROUND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES. CHOSE
TO GO WITH MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME BUT
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
BOTH TAF SITES WITH KMCK MAYBE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRAY
SHOWER TO MOVE ACROSS. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO KEEP VCSH IN THIS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH AROUND
15Z OR 16Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD
COVER AROUND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES. CHOSE
TO GO WITH MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME BUT
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET WEATHER WEEK TO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE TOO EAST OF US-27. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
STILL LOOKING FOR SKIES TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH AND THE LOWER 80S NORTH. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FORM AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTERACTS WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
EDITING MORNING SOUNDINGS TO MID AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
YIELDS CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -5. SPC
DAY ONE GENERAL THUNDER AREA LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NSSL
AND SPC WRF/S AND THE LATEST HRRR ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORMS...BUT SOME HAIL...HALF INCH OR LESS AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN`T
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM.
THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NRN LAKES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE CLEARLY AND LAST
EVENING HAD A FEW LTG STRIKES WITH IT. MODELS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH WE ADDED A
TSRA MENTION. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
ANY PCPN WILL QUICKLY END.
FAIR WX EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE ACTIVE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY...LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. MODELS DO SHOW SOME VARIANCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. EVENTUALLY ALL MODELS LIFT IT THROUGH. THE MODELS
DO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING FRIDAY ALONG WITH CLIMBING
PWAT VALUES. WITH STILL A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AROUND FRI INTO
SAT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST. I WILL FEATURE A FEW STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT
AS A RESULT.
THE NEW HIGH RES EURO IS SHOWING QUITE THE WARMUP AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KLAN TO KJXN.
HOWEVER THERE IS A WARM LAYER SHOWN ALOFT UP AROUND 20K FT. THUS
IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL START TO FORM INLAND...BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT ADDING A THUNDER RISK AT THIS POINT.
WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
A KGRR TO KLAN LINE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
FROM FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLD TSRA BTWN CYPL/CYQT. AT THE SFC...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTED OVER THE CWA. IR LOOP SHOWED PATCHY MID
CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI AND SOME STRATUS FROM ONTONAGON TO IWD THAT HAD
MOVED IN OFF OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS (600-700 MB INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB) ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE CYPL SHRTWV
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
CNTRL UPPER MI THAT COULD SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8K FT AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TSRA DEVELOP.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS IN PRODUCING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...LEFT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
STARTING 12Z TUE...THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W CONUS EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN CANADA. ALSO...THERE WILL
BE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E CANADA AND E CONUS...INCLUDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE CWA UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THERE WILL BE THE USUAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
TO THE SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NW. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER JET FOCUSES WELL N OF THE CONUS. BY
THU...THE N PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND FAR NCENTRAL CONUS /INCLUDING OVER THE CWA/.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED SE OFF THE
CWA...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO E/CENTRAL CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN...BRINGING INCREASED SLY FLOW
AS A SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THE PRECIP ASPECT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY. NO ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH SUN...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
THROUGH THU INLAND IF ANY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
DAYS. ALSO...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO PUT SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THU THROUGH SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
AN AREA OF ST/FG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT HAD MOVED INTO IWD SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR SAWYER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1028 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BEING
MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT VELOCITY OF THE WEAKENING MCV OVER OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUGGESTS RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY PRESENT A DECENT LOW LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS MAKING FOR
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS FORECAST MAY BE A TAD TOO COOL
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS TOO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
UPDATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE REVIEW OF A FEW
MORE SETS OF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS OF CLOUD
TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE TERMINAL AREA ON THE VERY
NORTHERN FRINGE OF WHAT LINGERING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THERE ARE...NOT
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE TAF. REST OF THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS
DRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH
ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1028 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT...ROSSI
LONG/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE TERMINAL AREA ON THE VERY
NORTHERN FRINGE OF WHAT LINGERING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THERE ARE...NOT
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE TAF. REST OF THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS
DRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH
ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL BRING
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT...ROSSI
LONG/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1024 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BEFORE STALLING
NEARBY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A FEW LATE DAY OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...HEAT ADVISORY AREA-WIDE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACH 105-109 THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AN EAST TO WEST FRONT
TO THE NORTH WILL DIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING PRIME HEATING. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH AND THE CAP ALOFT WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR REGION. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA 4P-MIDNIGHT.
COOLING ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY WILL STRENGTHEN LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL NEAR 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED WET DOWN
BURSTS LATER TODAY...LOCAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE MS RIVER VLY UP INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SW TO NE...DEEP SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS SHOWN BY BOTH DEEP SATURATION IN FORECAST PROFILES...PWATS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES...AND STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING. AT THE
SAME TIME...A 300MB JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING THE AREA UNDERNEATH ITS FAVORABLE RIGHT DIFFLUENT
REGION. THIS WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...SUCH THAT SURFACE CONVERGENCE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMA ARE COLLOCATED WHICH...IN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS ALSO ECHOED
IN TIME HEIGHTS WHICH SHOW PERIODS OF VERY STRONG UVVS THANKS TO
DEEP COLUMN INSTABILITY.
SO WITH ALL THESE PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE (AND NOW WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT)...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN SEEMS
ALMOST A CERTAINTY ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...PLACING THE HIGHEST POP AND QPF IS STILL VERY
DIFFICULT FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...DEEP SW FLOW WILL ACT TO IMPEDE
SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. SECOND...GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BASICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALSO
HELP TO RETARD SOUTHERN LATITUDINAL GAIN OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
KEEP SOME DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN. NOTE AS WELL
THAT RIDGES TEND TO BE BROKEN DOWN TOO EASILY/QUICKLY BY
GUIDANCE...SO THE FACT THAT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AROUND 588DM MEANS THE RIDGE MAY BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THIS...HENCE
CREATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
STILL...SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. MOS P12 NUMBERS ECHO THIS...OVER 60 NEAR LBT AND LESS THAN 40
AT CRE. HPC QPF SHOWS ABOUT 1/2 INCH NEAR GEORGETOWN...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES NEAR LUMBERTON DURING THESE TWO DAYS. FEEL THIS IS A PRUDENT
ESTIMATE ATTM...ALTHOUGH WILL CUT DOWN ON THESE NUMBERS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...WITH HIGHEST POP OCCURRING DURING THE AFTN
THANKS TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE MODIFIED CONSIDERABLY BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...AND WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK-AND-A-HALF. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 90 TUESDAY...WITH ONLY MID/UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MINS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S EACH
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND WAVERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE WKND.
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO THE MS VLY WILL
SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
BUILD WEST AND TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HAPPENS AT THE
SAME TIME A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY WASHES OUT/LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
BY FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE CLOUDY AND
COOL...TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE FOR
MINS...WITH SCATTERED...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
BOTH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...SO WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHC POP THU WITH CHC FRI. THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NW ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY.
BY THE WKND...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FORCING THE FRONT TO WASH OUT TO THE NORTH. MORE TYPICAL MID-JULY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY THEN WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND CLIMO. AS
RETURN FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CLIMO POP IS WARRANTED
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SO COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 23 AND 05 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
06 UTC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...COMBINED EFFECTS OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH...PIEDMONT TROF...AND RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BRING SW 15 KT ALL WATERS...AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OCCASIONALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR AND STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE OUTER WATERS OFF
LITTLE RIVER INLET. A FEW STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ON THE 0-20NM WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...THE PERSISTENT 1-2FT/8SEC SE GROUND SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE
SOMEWHAT TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM. HOWEVER...THE PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS OF 15-20 KTS TUESDAY...DECREASING
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY...MAKING THE SPECTRUM WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
EXPECT SEAS OF 3-4 FT TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE WAVERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WITH BERMUDA HIGH STILL
SITTING OFFSHORE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE ONGOING ON
THURSDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO WASH OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THEN
SOUTHEAST...STILL AROUND 10 KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF
DIFFERENT WIND WAVES AND SWELL DEVELOPING LATE WEEK...BUT WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST...EXPECT PRIMARILY A COMBINATION OF A
CONTINUED 2FT SE GROUND SWELL AND A 2 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE...WHICH
WILL KEEPS SEAS AT 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1016 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN STALL AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM...
LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTION TODAY.
CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME MEAGER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE BY MANY CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. THESE
MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT ADVECTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON. NO CONSENSUS IN THE
TRADITIONAL MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION MAXIMA APPEARING WHEREVER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED... BUT WITH NO CONSENSUS ON LOCATION.
THE NAM LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK OVERDONE... WITH ITS PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TOO INTENSE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ROUGHLY EAST WEST WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
HIGHWAY 64 AT THIS TIME. ROUGH CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MESONAM AND RAP
MODELS IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE FOOTHILLS ADVANCING INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MID AFTERNOON. THE RAP INITIATES CONVECTION NEAR
AND SOUTH OF ITS CONVERGENCE ZONE... WHICH IT MEANDERS SOUTH IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THE BEST CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST
AS THE MODEL MOVES A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE GFS DROPS THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND LEAVES IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 74
AT SUNSET. PRESSURE TENDENCIES MAY OFFER A CLUE AS TO THE PROPER
SOLUTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM VIRGINIA
BRINGING CONVECTION TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION... WILL FAVOR CURRENT BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TIME... AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BE THE ORIGIN FOR CONVECTION... WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST LEAST
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET WHEN PART OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA.
THE RAP MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS TODAY AND
PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SURFACE BASED CAPE AND INSTABILITY THAN
MOST MODELS. FREEZING LEVELS OF 15 TO 16 THOUSAND FEET WITH A DRY
INVERTED VEE BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO
UPPER 90S.
FOR TONIGHT FORECASTING MINOR SHIFT SOUTH IN THE BOUNDARY TO FAVOR
THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NIGHT CONVECTION BEFORE STORMS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES 73 TO 78.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF AND/OR ATLANTIC AND LEAD TO PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THE FAVORED DIURNAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH REGARDS
TO ANY SEVERE THREAT...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...SHEAR AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALL FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...THEREFORE AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AS CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEAR
NON-EXISTENT AND NO HELP IN MOVING THE FRONT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
DAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...A HIGH
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGINS TO TRY AND BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS COULD HELP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGIN TO DRY
OUT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE UPPER 80S BY
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST SITES.
CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET WITH VSBYS MOSTLY ABOVE 6
MILES THROUGH THE MORNING. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... FIRST NEAR INT/GSO/RDU/RWI AFTER 18Z... THEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO FAY AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR NEAR TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT... EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED BELOW 2 THOUSAND FEET
FROM LATE EVENING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING... MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHY CLOUDS
BASED BELOW 2 THOUSAND FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING TUESDAY. THEN... THERE WILL BE A NEAR DAILY CHANCE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS... PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EACH LATE-NIGHT AND
MORNING... AND IN/NEAR ANY STORMS... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...AND WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WITH CLOUDS
FORMING OVER THE MTNS. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING CONVECTION
TO BE ONGOING ATTM...BUT RADAR REMAINS PPINE. STILL EXPECT AN EARLY
INITIATION OVER THE MTNS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NO CIN SHUD
LEAD TO CONVECTION BEGINNING BY NOON. ALSO STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE NORTH AND SCT SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...NUMEROUS COVERAGE
COULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPSTATE OR NE GA OF THE BOUNDARY SLIPS AS
WELL. SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DCAPE
FCST. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL WITH A NICE AREA OF MID LEVEL
DRYING AND COOLING...ESP KGSO. SHEAR WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP FCST SHOWS 20
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NC. ALSO...COLD POOL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF STORMS. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT FCST...SO
MAIN CHANGES WERE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF DAYBREAK...A CONVECTIVE LULL...SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN CUT
BACK BEFORE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS WERE DONE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE OLD ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING
OFF THE E COAST AND THE SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING THE DEEP
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES DOWN
ACROSS TN/NC BY THE END OF THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THAT SHOULD EASILY BE THE
CASE TODAY. THE PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC MIGHT BE LEFT OUT OF THE ACTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING OVER THE MTNS DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AND NO CAP WITH CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP MAINLY OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY
THAT SUBSEQUENT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE NC. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY
POP ACROSS THE NC PART BUT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO A CHANCE OUTSIDE THE
HIGH TERRAIN ACRS NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH IS QUITE WARM AGAIN...BUT
A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY OWING TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
NECESSARY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOWS WELL INTO THE EVENING SO AT LEAST A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 3 AM EDT MONDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALREADY OVER OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY...AND WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT...IT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. GENERALLY THERE IS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT...AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE NAM FORMS A WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY. INITIALLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT BY WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOME
UPSLOPE FROM THE ESE. AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY LATELY...AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS MAY
DEVELOP GRADUALLY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT MONDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MAINTAIN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH FORM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY....WITH WEAK RIDGING OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM NC ACROSS THE GULF
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW
UNLESS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORMS AND MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM THE NORTH TODAY THAT WILL FOCUS CONVECTION
ACROSS TN/NC/VA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT WILL IMPROVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT STARTING SOME TIME LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO 20Z WAS CHOSEN AS THE START TIME FOR A PROB30
AND CHANCES WERE RAMPED UP FROM THERE. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL
EARLY EVENING FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP S AND E INTO METRO
CHARLOTTE...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY GOOD THAT THE AIRFIELD WILL BE
AFFECTED BASED ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A NEARBY FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION COMPARED TO KCLT. ONGOING
STORMS SHOULD AVOID KAVL/KHKY THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MTN VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT RECENT NIGHTS HAVE SEEN ONLY
A BRIEF PERIOD...SO IT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
629 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT/
WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...PRETTY HARD TO FIND IN WIND FIELDS...DEFINED A BIT
BETTER WITH 925 HPA THETA E...AND LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR AND BEHIND. SUBTLETY RULES IN THIS PATTERN AS HAS BEEN
EVIDENCED WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND
MAY BE THAT TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION TO THIS. WEAK CHANNELLED VORT
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ONE WAVE MOVING ALONG RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER PICKUP IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE KMML AREA. OF NOTE IN LAST HOUR OR TWO IS THE
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS AXIS...MAINLY ALONG AREAS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBTLE INCREASE IN PV ADVECTION. MIGHT BE THIS IS
WHAT NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO PICK UP ON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIFT
AXIS WITH NUISANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. RETAINED SOME ISOLATED LEVEL POPS FOR REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT THAT OTHER
THAN CLOUDS...SHOULD END UP WITH A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD AFTER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INDICATIONS ARE
MOISTURE POOLING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THROUGH
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS ENTIRE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD. AXIS
OF DIV Q REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH THIS AREA...AND DID INTRODUCE A
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDER SOUTHWEST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
IDA GROVE LINE. DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKENING OF LIFT FORCING SHOULD
END PRECIP BY AROUND SUNSET.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD END
UP WITH COOLISH NIGHT...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE
AREA. NAM STRONGEST WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WHICH PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THIS FAIRLY
ALONE WITH DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...DID NOT MESS UP THE
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO OR JUST ABOVE MAX MIXING
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS...AND HAVE KEPT
GENERAL RULE OF FOLLOWING WARMER GUIDANCE /AND LARGER DIURNAL RANGE/
FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HARD TO FIND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH AREA
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG RIDGE. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPACT OF
WAVE COMING OVER RIDGE WILL START TO ENHANCE THE DIV Q ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ADVANCES AND LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ECMWF AND GFS...
WHILE QUITE SIMILAR ON THE LONG WAVE FORECAST...REALLY COULD NOT
PROVE TO BE MUCH MORE DIFFERENT IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE INTENT ON HOLDING LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TO 7-10C FOR
925 HPA TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
YEAR...AND GIVEN THE HISTORY AND DRYNESS...EXPECT THAT A WARMER
SOLUTION SHOULD BE PREFERRED. FAIRLY COOL 700 HPA TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO AS IMPACT OF WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE
AND SHEARING IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DIV Q LINGERS FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
GOING STARTING EARLY THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST...AND EXITING THE
NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...WITH A FORECAST SHIFT TOWARD A STRONGER
ECMWF FLAVOR...THAT WE COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING BACK SOME NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS
TO THE WESTERN CWA. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND COULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. /08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1043 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION UPDATE...
THIS DISCUSSION PERTAINS TO THE KCSV TAF ONLY.
WILL BE AMENDING KCSV TAF AS NEEDED EVEN THOUGH OBSERVATIONS ARE
NOT AUTOMATICALLY MAKING IT INTO TO OUR AWIPS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
I WILL REUPDATE THIS DISCUSSION AND ADVISE ONCE THIS PROBLEM IS
FIXED. IN THE MEANTIME...I WILL BE DIALING IN ONCE OR TWICE AN
HOUR TO GET THE LATEST KCSV OBSERVATION AND WILL THEN AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. KEEP IN MIND AMENDMENTS...BECAUSE OF THIS...MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
853 AM PDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY FOR LESS MORNING
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING WHEREAS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE STRATUS
OVER THE INTERIOR TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. THE COAST WILL
LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN ALL DAY DUE TO TIGHTENING OF THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED OVER THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE VORT MAX OR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA LATE LAST NIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 0900 UTC
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST /SREF/ AND THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK OF
TSTMS IN ZONE 505. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUNTED EWD THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WED. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR TOMORROW. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT MOST PLACES. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SOME BY WED AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE INTERIOR WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
BUT DISAGREE ON DETAILS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH OR UPPER
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED. MERCER
&&
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO PUSH INLAND TO THE
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS FROM SEATTLE AND HOOD CANAL SOUTHWARD. A
RIBBON OF STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED IN THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA TO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS...ROSARIO STRAIT...AND THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SKAGIT AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. CLOUD BASES AROUND
AROUND 005 MSL WITH TOPS OF 016-020. WITH STRONG EARLY JULY
INSOLATION...EXPECT STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND AREA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z THEN PUSH BACK TO NEAR THE WASHINGTON
COAST 20-21Z.
IN THE MEANTIME...A DISTURBANCE IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OREGON CASCADES IN UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES AND IN THE EAST
PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS NEAR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DISTURBANCE WORKS NORTHWARD.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTION WORKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADES
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS MOVING IN
AGAIN TONIGHT...REACHING KSHN ABOUT 06Z...KOLM AND KPAE 10Z...AND
KSEA BY 12Z. A SIMILAR MIDDAY BREAKOUT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
KSEA...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TURN WEST AROUND 18Z. SEATAC WILL
BE NEAR WHERE THE NLY FLOW MOVING DOWN THE SOUND AND THE SWLY FLOW
COMING IN FROM THE CHEHALIS GAP MEET THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS FOR THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD AT THE TERMINAL IS QUITE
TRICKY. AT THIS TIME WILL USE NAM12 GUIDANCE THAT PUTS KSEA ON THE
BOUNDARY FOR A WLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL BURN OFF
RAPIDLY AROUND 18Z THEN WILL FILL BACK IN WITH BASES AT 004 BETWEEN
10Z AND 12Z. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
STRONG INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER ADMIRALTY
INLET...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
THE DIURNALLY OCCURRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY
AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
631 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHWEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A LOW CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND. FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
THIS FLOW EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS TROUGH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/THIS PAST EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO TOWARD THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
AS OF 3 AM.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE REGION FROM ONTARIO/MANITOBA. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TAKING THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN IMPACT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION/CAP AROUND 700MB
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN RATHER STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. BASED ON THIS STRONGER
SIGNAL AND NAM 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE...DECIDED TO
ADD SMALL-END SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INDICATED IN THE THU/FRI TIME
PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE GFS WHICH TENDS TO OVER-DO CONVECTION PAINTS SOME LIGHT
QPF ON US BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH DRY FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
APPEARS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S/NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
631 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING ON. 09.08Z HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT SKIES IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON AT
THIS TIME WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. VARIOUS NWP
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...09/17Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DEPICT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF TUCSON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TUE...
SHOWERS/TSTMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP VICINITY WHITE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SWWD TOWARD AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN
CONCERN GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS OUTFLOWS MOVE SWWD ACROSS THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...MADE
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POPS TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BY TUE EVENING FOR MUCH OF
SE AZ WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. GIVEN INCREASED
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE
NIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD WITH DRY CONDTIONS ELSEWHERE.
WED...
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING FORECAST DETAIL. MOISTURE IS
GENERALLY PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS SE AZ AS PER THE 09/12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...09/12Z NAM AND 09/15Z SREF FAVORS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON
WITH MINUSCULE POPS ELSEWHERE. NOT TO SAY THAT THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WILL BE PRECIP-FREE. HOWEVER...ESELY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR THE
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND LOCALES SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON AS PER
THE NAM/SREF. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STANDARD MONSOON
FORECAST OF CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ANY REFINEMENTS TO THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
ISSUANCES.
THUR-SUN...
PERHAPS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ERN
SECTIONS SAT. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS THUR-SUN.
HIGH TEMPS TUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS TO THEN OCCUR WED-MON.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT -TSRA/-SHRA THRU THIS EVENING THEN BULK OF PRECIP TO
END BY 10/12Z. SCT -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY EWD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR 11/00Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. EXPECT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
BF
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...
THERE WL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING AT THE TAF SITES...KALS...KCOS AND KPUB. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOCAL IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THOUGH DOES
INDICATE DRIER AIR ACROSS WYOMING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED POPCORN SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WITH SATELLITE DATA INDICATING CLOUD TOP WARMING WITH THE
DIMINISHING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
EARLY THIS MORNING...MODELS CONTINUING TO BE OVERDONE WITH
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR NSSL WRF WHICH HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH LAST NIGHTS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION KEEPING A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
STATE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FLOW WITH
H5 WINDS PROGGED BETWEEN 10-15KTS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THOUGH BEST MOISTURE GETS PUSHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ACROSS WYOMING CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH NO EVIDENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...CONVECTION
LOOKS TO MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP
CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS MOVING TODAY AND NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR REMAINING VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
COOL MOIST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -MW
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ON TUESDAY...WE START TO TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AROUND SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL START TO TRANSITION BACK TOWARD
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AROUND THIS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN ON MONDAY BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HEAT WAVE WILL RETURN. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON WILL RETURN. THIS SHOULD BRING AN UPSWING IN
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WALDO CANYON FIRE SCAR WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. LW
AVIATION...
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION MAINLY
TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 06Z. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
28/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AND HAS ACTED TO
BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEA-BOARD. THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT RELIEF TO SOME
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/FL PENINSULA. THE MAIN SUPPRESSION FROM
THIS RIDGE HOWEVER IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...AND THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING IS SHOWING A MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION. THE PW VALUE OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS
APPROACHING 1.90"...WHICH IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES ARE IN THE 126-129K RANGE...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT AT NORMAL
LEVELS FOR JULY...AND CERTAINLY NOT HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE COLUMNS.
IF THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN OUR PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING OUR GRADIENT
LIGHT AND OUR FLOW DOMINATED BY NOCTURNAL/MORNING LAND BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING - WEDNESDAY)...
THE SEA BREEZE IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS HAS
BEGUN INITIATING SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. LOOKS LIKE
A FAIRLY TYPICAL COVERAGE WITH 30-40% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AROUND 50% WILL BE FOUND DOWNS TOWARD PUNTA
GORDA/FT MYERS...WHERE THE MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAWN...EXPECTING THE DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO BE
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET UP DECENT COVERAGE OF
NOCTURNAL/MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN AT THE BEACHES...AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE CONVECTION PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS...AND OVER THE LANDMASS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERS. CURRENT POP GRIDS
ADVERTISE 50-60% POPS NORTH AND 60-65% POPS SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OVERALL THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER
PERIODIC STORMS. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES/CLOUD DEBRIS/AND LESS
EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE SE U.S. AND EASTERN GULF FROM
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TUTT LIKE FEATURE TRACKS
WESTWARD OVER CUBA AND THEN INTO THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH END SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT DOWN TURN IN POPS BUT STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GETTING A EARLY START NEAR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KPIE AND KTPA. BOTH TERMINALS WILL BE IN TH VICINITY OF
STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER FROM SARASOTA TO FT. MYERS...STORMS WILL BE
INITIATING IN THE VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH KSRQ AND KPIE BECOME MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CELL. ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. DESPITE THE TIGHTER GRADIENT...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENHANCED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 76 90 / 30 50 30 60
FMY 74 90 74 92 / 30 60 30 60
GIF 74 93 74 93 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 75 91 75 90 / 30 50 30 60
BKV 72 92 72 93 / 30 50 30 60
SPG 79 91 78 90 / 30 50 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AVIATION...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
600 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
SETS UP TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE
DAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TSTMS COULD FORCE TEMPERATURES
BELOW 80 PRIOR TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...SO A RECORD REPORT WILL NOT
BE ISSUED JUST YET.
THE SEA BREEZE IS MOVING STEADILY INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG IT. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AT JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERAGE LOOKS SPARSE AT BEST.
MORE ROBUST...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...PEE DEE AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA ALONG A PRONOUNCED
LEE-SIDE TROUGH. SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PACKAGES
SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME LOOSELY ORGANIZE AND
BRUSH THE FAR WESTERN AND MORE LIKELY THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS INTERSECT THE WESTWARD MOVING
SEA BREEZE. 09/21Z RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CAP HAS
JUST ABOUT ERODED SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IMPACTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ARE THE
HIGHEST. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH DCAPES
RUNNING OVER 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPES RUNNING 2000-2500 J/KG.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ASSUMING TSTMS DO NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM MID 70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM RECORDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON COUNTY COULD BE
CHALLENGED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD AS UPPER
TROUGHING INCREASES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
LIKELY STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE AN IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND PEE-DEE REGIONS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THIS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ORGANIZING INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PUSHING
SOUTHEAST CLOSE TO OR EVEN INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS EACH DAY GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT THESE
CHANCES WOULD GO HIGHER IF ANY UPSTREAM ORGANIZATION OCCURS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A DIMINISHING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVELS WARM AND A STRONGER CAP SETS UP. WE SHOW A
DECREASING POP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS TO IMPACT KCHS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION JUST YET. TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF KCHS/KSAV SO NO MENTION WILL BE
INCLUDED WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING N/NW OF THE WATERS...THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO A SURGE OF SW WINDS
15-20 KT TONIGHT. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED/UNCOMMON...THUS NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO AS HIGH
AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT SC WATERS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. THROUGH MID
WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL
OUT INLAND...LIKELY ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND
CREATING NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN CHS HARBOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR ANY HEADLINES THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO REMAIN SMALL OVERALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR JULY 9...
KCHS...80/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 10...
KCHS...81/1986
KCHL...82/1986 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
KSAV...84/1879
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...CORRECTION
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE UPDATE...NETWORK ISSUES HAVE BEEN SOLVED.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE
ISSUES RESOLVING CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA FOR TODAY. SEVERAL
HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR LATER. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
LARGELY WITH THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AT THIS
POINT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP UNTIL 12Z.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE KEY PLAYERS WILL BE A SFC FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOME GULF MOISTURE NOSING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR MS/LA. LATEST
NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BEING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER
BY 00Z TUESDAY. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATED THAT THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 18Z YESTERDAY... HOWEVER
THERE WAS LIKELY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS NOT PROGGED TO DIG MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT BY MIDWEEK AND ANY SHORTWAVES
TRACKING ALONG THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE WITH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. IT SEEMS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO START WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 18-21Z WHEN DAYTIME
HEATING TYPICALLY TRIGGERS CONVECTION SO TRENDED POPS UPWARD DURING
THE DAY FROM LOW CHANCE BEFORE 18Z IN THE NORTH TO HIGH END CHANCE
AFTERWARD AND SLIGHT STAYING SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SAUNTER
SOUTHWARD JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO NORTH GA BY TUESDAY SO FELT
LIKELY POPS WERE BETTER JUSTIFIED IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING THAN TODAY.
DECENT CAPE VALUES WITH WEAK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE MAIN STORM THREATS
OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ALLOW CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL PAST
SUNSET AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS PROGGED PW VALUES ARE UP
NEAR 1.80 INCHES... AND A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... HOWEVER HPC HAS
THE HIGHER QPF JUST PAST THE SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT WILL GREATLY DICTATE WHERE
THE GREATEST STORM INFLUENCE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS THIS WEEK
SO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE OR THE LACK THEREOF WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE AND
RAISED THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY HIGHS AS
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST WITH ANY
INFLUENCING CLOUD COVER OR OUTFLOW LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR THE LOW 90S IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST... WITH VALUES 2-4
DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY GET. OVERALL
THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...FAVORING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH HIGHER POPS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.
41
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
LOOK TO STAY NEARLY WEST AT 10KTS OR LESS AND A FEW SITES
INCLUDING KATL COULD GUST UP TO NEAR 18KTS LATER THIS MORNING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5-7 KFT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SCT
TO BKN BY 21Z ACROSS MOST AREAS BEFORE GOING BACK TO SCT040 NEAR
03Z TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMCN WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21-03Z THEREFORE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUP FOR THESE SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE METRO ATL AREA TONIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
POSITION...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCES FOR ATL AREA WILL BE 20-00Z
TODAY. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY SCT
CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING COVER INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ON THE RISE TUESDAY...AND HAVE INDICATED PROB30 FOR
AFTER 17-18Z. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
VARY BETWEEN WSW AND W...AT 8-11KTS TODAY...3-5KTS OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN 7-10KTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME LOW END GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ON TIMING
OF TSRA.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 97 71 92 72 / 30 30 50 50
ATLANTA 92 72 90 73 / 30 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 83 67 / 50 40 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 92 69 90 70 / 40 40 60 60
COLUMBUS 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 93 72 89 72 / 40 40 60 60
MACON 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 93 70 91 72 / 50 40 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 92 69 90 70 / 30 30 50 40
VIDALIA 98 76 97 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
107 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT
17Z WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATED SMALL UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS SW KANSAS WHILE AREA OF
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE CWA.
SOUNDINGS AT LBF INDICATING A LOT OF DRYING HAS OCCURRED BELOW H7
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THINK CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT TEMPERATURES CROSS SOUTHERN CWA BUT WITH SITES SHOWING A FAIRLY
QUICK REBOUND WITH SLIGHT CLEARING...AM NOT THINKING HOLDING BACK
TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY IS IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...WITH UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH THINK ANY REMAINING PRECIP THREAT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE VERY SPOTTY...LIKELY FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CWA WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST AND DRIFTING SOUTH. FOR
NOW...THINK 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE IS IN ORDER BUT IF RADAR DOES
NOT BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT SOON...WILL KNOCK THINGS DOWN
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS HOLDING ON
FOR A WHILE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. WITH OBSERVED MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
TO THE NORTH AND SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...THINK
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW HAVE
CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT ENTIRE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL DRY
OUT. WITH WET GROUND...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER
COOL AFTERNOON TEMPS THINK FOG THREAT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
IN FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY CONCERNS OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST DO THE MAXES RECOVER.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA HAS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRESSED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LEAVES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
PUTS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER UPSTREAM.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE UPPER JET. MODELS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTIES AT MID LEVELS. FIRST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR
WEST. MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH BUT MORE SO NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH. SECONDARY WAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND CANADIAN. THE NAM AND SREF
DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM
TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THE BEST AS FAR AS
PLACEMENT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. OTHER MODELS ARE
TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO WET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO TOTALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FRONT HAS SAGGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SYSTEM IS FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE IN HAVING A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SOME DIVERGENCE
AND DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ALSO THE MODELS ARE ROTATING SOME FORCING/PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ALL THIS FORCING MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS
QPF FORECASTS. SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY LOOKS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME LOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT OF LESS PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOONER...HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THERE
THIS MORNING. LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH AN UNFAVORABLE MOSTLY UPSLOPE WIND FIELD. SO WENT NEAR
TO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST RECEIVING THE LEAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALL
THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND HARD TO REALLY
FAVOR ANY ONE LOCATION OVER ANOTHER SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NOT THE BEST SETUP TO RAPIDLY
WARMUP. THE NAM NWP/2 METER HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW...IT MAY
BE OVERDOING THE WARMUP SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS IT DID.
MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE
FLOW WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME CAPE INDICATED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WHICH WOULD
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
CLOSER AND PUSHES THE LIFT FURTHER EAST. SO KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY.
A LITTLE BETTER SETUP TO WARM UP SO RAISED MAXES SOME BUT AGAIN NOT
AS MUCH AS THE NAM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY OR IS JUST DISRUPTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WHICH HAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. DUE TO VERY SPOTTY
NATURE...DO NOT EXPECT A SIG IMPACT TO EITHER TAF SITE. OTHERWISE
AFTER SKIES CLEAR THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
BTWN 09 AND 15Z. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AREA FROM NORTH THINK
GLD HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER MCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE WATCH 484 IN EFFECT NOW UNTIL 9PM. THIS INCLUDES NELSON
COUNTY IN THE LWX CWA. ANY EXPANSIONS OR CANCELLATIONS WILL DEPEND
ON THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
DENSE LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE LEFT MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN THAT WERE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS LAST WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STILL
ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THE AREA AND IS NOW DRIFTING OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE CWA. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO GATHER OVER
THESE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE MRNG SOUNDING FROM
KIAD SHOWED BASICALLY NO CAPPING INVERSION...THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
HAS LARGELY PREVENTED THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CNTRL APLCNS AND
TOWARD THE LOWER SHENANDOAH VLY...BUT THE GREATER TSTM RISK EXISTS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH - CENTERED ON THE VA/NC BORDER.
LOCAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR MODEL SHOW ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH...OVER ERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLC IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR LIFT -
SHOULD THIS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DISPERSE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE LOWEST TIER OF THE
CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 IN N CNTRL VA BUT THE
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE L-M60S AND ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DO THE SAME. THE METRO AREAS AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL
STILL ONLY BOTTOM-OUT IN THE 70S BUT THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD
SINCE THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY AND STILL MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
THE AREA WON`T QUITE DRY OUT UNTIL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OUT OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUE...NELY SFC
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE AREA - AT LEAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
THE MORE STABLE FLOW WILL PREVENT TSTM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
BAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MRNG AND
AFTN. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE L-M80S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING THE
SHENANDOAH VLY. TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PLAY A PART IN ANY INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AFTN HRS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODELS GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CAPPING
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
LOW 80S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. LOCATION OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES. E-NE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO COOL SURFACE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK FORCING A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO RETROGRADE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING TO SEASONAL NORMS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY A FEW 3-5KFT CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...W/ A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY INTO
THE LATE EVE HRS. A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH THE KCHO AREA...W/
LOWER CHANCES TOWARD THE DC/BALT METRO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. NELY SFC FLOW WILL BECOME ELY BY THIS TIME ON
TUE...OWING TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DOWN ACROSS THE VA/NC
BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BUT A
FAIRLY SCATTERED AND LOW CHANCE NATURE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED. E-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTN AFTER CHANNELING DOWN THE BAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVED SWD OVER THE WATERS EARLIER THIS
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NELY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME HRS
ON TUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE E-NE LESS THAN 10 KT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...GMS/BAJ
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KCS/CLS
AVIATION...GMS/KCS
MARINE...GMS/KCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DENSE LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE LEFT MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN THAT WERE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS LAST WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STILL
ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THE AREA AND IS NOW DRIFTING OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE CWA. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO GATHER OVER
THESE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE MRNG SOUNDING FROM
KIAD SHOWED BASICALLY NO CAPPING INVERSION...THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
HAS LARGELY PREVENTED THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CNTRL APLCNS AND
TOWARD THE LOWER SHENANDOAH VLY...BUT THE GREATER TSTM RISK EXISTS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH - CENTERED ON THE VA/NC BORDER.
LOCAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR MODEL SHOW ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH...OVER ERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLC IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR LIFT -
SHOULD THIS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DISPERSE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE LOWEST TIER OF THE
CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 IN N CNTRL VA BUT THE
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE L-M60S AND ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DO THE SAME. THE METRO AREAS AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL
STILL ONLY BOTTOM-OUT IN THE 70S BUT THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD
SINCE THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY AND STILL MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
THE AREA WON`T QUITE DRY OUT UNTIL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OUT OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUE...NELY SFC
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE AREA - AT LEAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
THE MORE STABLE FLOW WILL PREVENT TSTM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
BAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MRNG AND
AFTN. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE L-M80S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING THE
SHENANDOAH VLY. TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PLAY A PART IN ANY INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AFTN HRS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODELS GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CAPPING
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
LOW 80S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. LOCATION OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES. E-NE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO COOL SURFACE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK FORCING A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO RETROGRADE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING TO SEASONAL NORMS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY A FEW 3-5KFT CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...W/ A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY INTO
THE LATE EVE HRS. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE KCHO AREA...W/
LOWER CHANCES TOWARD THE DC/BALT METRO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. NELY SFC FLOW WILL BECOME ELY BY THIS TIME ON TUE...OWING TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DOWN ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BUT A FAIRLY SCATTERED AND
LOW CHANCE NATURE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED. E-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTN AFTER CHANNELING DOWN THE BAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVED SWD OVER THE WATERS EARLIER THIS
AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NELY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME HRS
ON TUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE E-NE LESS THAN 10 KT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KCS/CJL
AVIATION...GMS/KCS
MARINE...GMS/KCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OUR INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED SPUR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THAT PUSHED FROM NEAR ISLE ROYALE TO LAKE
MI...IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CWA. THE RUC DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB AT
PIN POINTING THE STORM COVERAGE INITIALLY. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A CLEARING SKY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER /ALBEIT WEAKER/ SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TIMING AGAIN AROUND DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SCT TO ISO TSRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. COVERAGE WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. ML CAP
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-500J/KG. THE NAM IS MORE
FOCUSED WEST AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE GFS IS HINTING AT A S CENTRAL
AND ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A
CONCERN WITH AN TS THAT DEVELOP...DCAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND OR
ABOVE 1000J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN TODAY...AROUND 11-12KFT...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE TUES
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SHIFT E TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK
THOUGH...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPS SUPPRESSED TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
A FEW 90S TRYING TO PUSH INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LKS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LKS DURING THAT TIME. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE
NE...SHOULDN/T SEE ANY SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA FOR WED THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BUT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW/MID
LVL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WED/THURS. ON BOTH DAYS...BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W...WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE SFC HIGH.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN BOTH WED/THURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT IN SRN ONTARIO
TRIES TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD IT OFF.
FLOW BEGINS TO MERGE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMER H850
TEMPS TO THE SW TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE WEAK ENERGY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD SEE
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OVERALL...NO
APPRECIABLE SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
MONITORING A LINE OF TSRA STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL BARAGA CO THROUGH
ISHPEMING AND NEGAUNEE...HEADING SSE TOWARD SAW. EXPECT TSRA TO
SLIDE OVER OR JUST W OF SAW BY 19Z...WITH SHRA CONTINUING BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE. OTHER THAN SAW WITH INITIAL MVFR CEIGS POSSIBLE...VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SAW...AS WELL AS CMX AND IWD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10KTS...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA
THAT WILL BE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FCST YET FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
OTHER THAN WITH ANY TS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS LS...HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 25KTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EDGE SE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST A COUPLE OF TIMES THIS MORNING...TO INCREASE
POPS AND TS PROBABILITIES...ASSOICATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS
PROPIGATED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
FROM FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLD TSRA BTWN CYPL/CYQT. AT THE SFC...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTED OVER THE CWA. IR LOOP SHOWED PATCHY MID
CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI AND SOME STRATUS FROM ONTONAGON TO IWD THAT HAD
MOVED IN OFF OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS (600-700 MB INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB) ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE CYPL SHRTWV
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
CNTRL UPPER MI THAT COULD SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8K FT AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TSRA DEVELOP.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS IN PRODUCING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...LEFT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
STARTING 12Z TUE...THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W CONUS EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN CANADA. ALSO...THERE WILL
BE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E CANADA AND E CONUS...INCLUDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE CWA UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THERE WILL BE THE USUAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
TO THE SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NW. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER JET FOCUSES WELL N OF THE CONUS. BY
THU...THE N PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND FAR NCENTRAL CONUS /INCLUDING OVER THE CWA/.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED SE OFF THE
CWA...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO E/CENTRAL CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN...BRINGING INCREASED SLY FLOW
AS A SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THE PRECIP ASPECT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY. NO ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH SUN...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
THROUGH THU INLAND IF ANY SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
DAYS. ALSO...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO PUT SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THU THROUGH SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
MONITORING A LINE OF TSRA STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL BARAGA CO THROUGH
ISHPEMING AND NEGAUNEE...HEADING SSE TOWARD SAW. EXPECT TSRA TO
SLIDE OVER OR JUST W OF SAW BY 19Z...WITH SHRA CONTINUING BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE. OTHER THAN SAW WITH INITIAL MVFR CEIGS POSSIBLE...VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SAW...AS WELL AS CMX AND IWD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10KTS...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA
THAT WILL BE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FCST YET FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
124 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET WEATHER WEEK TO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE TOO EAST OF US-27. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
STILL LOOKING FOR SKIES TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH AND THE LOWER 80S NORTH. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FORM AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTERACTS WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
EDITING MORNING SOUNDINGS TO MID AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
YIELDS CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -5. SPC
DAY ONE GENERAL THUNDER AREA LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NSSL
AND SPC WRF/S AND THE LATEST HRRR ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORMS...BUT SOME HAIL...HALF INCH OR LESS AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN`T
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM.
THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NRN LAKES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE CLEARLY AND LAST
EVENING HAD A FEW LTG STRIKES WITH IT. MODELS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH WE ADDED A
TSRA MENTION. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
ANY PCPN WILL QUICKLY END.
FAIR WX EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE ACTIVE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY...LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. MODELS DO SHOW SOME VARIANCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. EVENTUALLY ALL MODELS LIFT IT THROUGH. THE MODELS
DO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING FRIDAY ALONG WITH CLIMBING
PWAT VALUES. WITH STILL A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AROUND FRI INTO
SAT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST. I WILL FEATURE A FEW STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT
AS A RESULT.
THE NEW HIGH RES EURO IS SHOWING QUITE THE WARMUP AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE KLAN
AND KJXN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 35
KT WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY END
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
339 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING
RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE
MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND HRRR OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PERHAPS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AM NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING...BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK DIABATIC HEATING...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST 00Z-03Z AS A RESULT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR WEST. WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOSE
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TUESDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG PRODUCTION PRIMARILY THROUGH LOW
LYING AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT 15
HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT
25-30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PLACING US WITHIN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE CWA TO BE VULNERABLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF ENERGY
THAT MAY ROUND THE RIDGE AND GIVE US PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. FRANKLY...TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN OVERALL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TOWARD A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SURE ENOUGH...MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS PROBABLE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT NECESSARILY MAKE THE TEMPERATURE A WHOLE
LOT COOLER FOR OUR WEATHER AS A TROUGH WOULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP IN
THE WEST AND A RESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
THIS WOULD MEAN A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE GENERALLY
EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS THIS MAY OPEN UP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND/OR SOUTH PACIFIC.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STEADILY CLIMB AS WELL.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
10-13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
NEAR 60...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
DIABATIC HEATING QUICKLY MIXES OUT THE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...KUEX CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS A WEAKENING
MCV PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. RAISED POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS OF MIDDAY...WITH A LOW LEVEL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AS OF MIDDAY REMAINED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM KK82 TO KCNK...WITH NEAR-70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR EAST OF HIGHWAY
281...AND LOW TO MID 80S FARTHER NORTHWEST. WENT AHEAD AND
DECREASED FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST...GIVEN THE THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AM HAVING TROUBLE BELIEVING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WILL MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE MID 70S. ALSO WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTH.
WITH KODX ALREADY AT 83 AS OF MIDDAY...WENT AHEAD WITH A FORECAST
HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR KODX...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO
THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
10-13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
NEAR 60...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
DIABATIC HEATING QUICKLY MIXES OUT THE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BEING
MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT VELOCITY OF THE WEAKENING MCV OVER OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUGGESTS RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY PRESENT A DECENT LOW LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS MAKING FOR
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS FORECAST MAY BE A TAD TOO COOL
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS TOO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
UPDATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE REVIEW OF A FEW
MORE SETS OF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS OF CLOUD
TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1259 PM UPDATE/AVIATION/1028 AM UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1217 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
10-13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
NEAR 60...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
DIABATIC HEATING QUICKLY MIXES OUT THE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRIMARILY BEING
MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT VELOCITY OF THE WEAKENING MCV OVER OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUGGESTS RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY PRESENT A DECENT LOW LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS MAKING FOR
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS FORECAST MAY BE A TAD TOO COOL
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS TOO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
UPDATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE REVIEW OF A FEW
MORE SETS OF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS OF CLOUD
TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MESOSCALE LOW
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW TO USHER
THIS WEAK SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE LIKELY
DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z AS LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE WITH 00Z WRF NOT DOING
SO WELL WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW AND 06Z NAM TAKING PRECIP
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER AS WELL AS EXACTLY WHERE...BUT OPTED WITH MORE OF THE NAM
LIKE SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND KEEPING MENTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EITHER WAY...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREAS...NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...AS
OVERNIGHT WE HAVE YET TO OBSERVE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA...HELPING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD AND
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS
CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW CAPABLE OF INITIATING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTRODUCED SOME
SMALL CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME WEAK FORCING IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA. THEREAFTER...KEPT REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM
DRY...ALBEIT SOME INDICATION WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
REALIZATION NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH A COUPLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY...HASNT REALLY BEEN
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
CONTINUES SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAS BEEN
SHOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY MODELS...AS WE GET THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST COAST. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE EAST INTO NM/CO AND NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS IS NOT GOOD...AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED PULLING POPS...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS GOING
TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...WITH THERE BEING AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THE POPS. CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT POPS CLOSE TO A EC/GFS BLEND WHICH ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERE NOT BEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...WITH THE CWA GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DONT LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END UP OVER THE
CWA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
END UP IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THINK A FEW UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN STALL AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM...
LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTION TODAY.
CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME MEAGER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE BY MANY CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. THESE
MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT ADVECTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON. NO CONSENSUS IN THE
TRADITIONAL MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION MAXIMA APPEARING WHEREVER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED... BUT WITH NO CONSENSUS ON LOCATION.
THE NAM LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK OVERDONE... WITH ITS PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TOO INTENSE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ROUGHLY EAST WEST WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
HIGHWAY 64 AT THIS TIME. ROUGH CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MESONAM AND RAP
MODELS IN A WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE FOOTHILLS ADVANCING INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MID AFTERNOON. THE RAP INITIATES CONVECTION NEAR
AND SOUTH OF ITS CONVERGENCE ZONE... WHICH IT MEANDERS SOUTH IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THE BEST CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST
AS THE MODEL MOVES A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE GFS DROPS THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND LEAVES IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 74
AT SUNSET. PRESSURE TENDENCIES MAY OFFER A CLUE AS TO THE PROPER
SOLUTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM VIRGINIA
BRINGING CONVECTION TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION... WILL FAVOR CURRENT BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TIME... AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BE THE ORIGIN FOR CONVECTION... WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST LEAST
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET WHEN PART OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA.
THE RAP MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS TODAY AND
PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SURFACE BASED CAPE AND INSTABILITY THAN
MOST MODELS. FREEZING LEVELS OF 15 TO 16 THOUSAND FEET WITH A DRY
INVERTED VEE BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO
UPPER 90S.
FOR TONIGHT FORECASTING MINOR SHIFT SOUTH IN THE BOUNDARY TO FAVOR
THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NIGHT CONVECTION BEFORE STORMS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES 73 TO 78.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF AND/OR ATLANTIC AND LEAD TO PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THE FAVORED DIURNAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH REGARDS
TO ANY SEVERE THREAT...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...SHEAR AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALL FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...THEREFORE AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AS CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 80S DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEAR
NON-EXISTENT AND NO HELP IN MOVING THE FRONT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
DAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...A HIGH
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGINS TO TRY AND BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS COULD HELP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGIN TO DRY
OUT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE UPPER 80S BY
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST OF HIGHWAYS 64 AND ONE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND COVERAGE TO INCREASE
AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE
EVENING AND BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES.
SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANYTIME
AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MORE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LATE NIGHT TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...RTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BEFORE STALLING
NEARBY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A FEW LATE DAY OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...HEAT ADVISORY AREA-WIDE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACH 105-109 THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AN EAST TO WEST FRONT
TO THE NORTH WILL DIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING PRIME HEATING. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH AND THE CAP ALOFT WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR REGION. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA 4P-MIDNIGHT.
COOLING ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY WILL STRENGTHEN LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL NEAR 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED WET DOWN
BURSTS LATER TODAY...LOCAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE MS RIVER VLY UP INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SW TO NE...DEEP SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS SHOWN BY BOTH DEEP SATURATION IN FORECAST PROFILES...PWATS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES...AND STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING. AT THE
SAME TIME...A 300MB JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING THE AREA UNDERNEATH ITS FAVORABLE RIGHT DIFFLUENT
REGION. THIS WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...SUCH THAT SURFACE CONVERGENCE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMA ARE COLLOCATED WHICH...IN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS ALSO ECHOED
IN TIME HEIGHTS WHICH SHOW PERIODS OF VERY STRONG UVVS THANKS TO
DEEP COLUMN INSTABILITY.
SO WITH ALL THESE PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE (AND NOW WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT)...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN SEEMS
ALMOST A CERTAINTY ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...PLACING THE HIGHEST POP AND QPF IS STILL VERY
DIFFICULT FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...DEEP SW FLOW WILL ACT TO IMPEDE
SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. SECOND...GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BASICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALSO
HELP TO RETARD SOUTHERN LATITUDINAL GAIN OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
KEEP SOME DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN. NOTE AS WELL
THAT RIDGES TEND TO BE BROKEN DOWN TOO EASILY/QUICKLY BY
GUIDANCE...SO THE FACT THAT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AROUND 588DM MEANS THE RIDGE MAY BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THIS...HENCE
CREATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
STILL...SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. MOS P12 NUMBERS ECHO THIS...OVER 60 NEAR LBT AND LESS THAN 40
AT CRE. HPC QPF SHOWS ABOUT 1/2 INCH NEAR GEORGETOWN...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES NEAR LUMBERTON DURING THESE TWO DAYS. FEEL THIS IS A PRUDENT
ESTIMATE ATTM...ALTHOUGH WILL CUT DOWN ON THESE NUMBERS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...WITH HIGHEST POP OCCURRING DURING THE AFTN
THANKS TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE MODIFIED CONSIDERABLY BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...AND WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK-AND-A-HALF. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 90 TUESDAY...WITH ONLY MID/UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MINS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S EACH
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND WAVERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE WKND.
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO THE MS VLY WILL
SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
BUILD WEST AND TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HAPPENS AT THE
SAME TIME A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY WASHES OUT/LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
BY FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE CLOUDY AND
COOL...TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE FOR
MINS...WITH SCATTERED...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
BOTH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...SO WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHC POP THU WITH CHC FRI. THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NW ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY.
BY THE WKND...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FORCING THE FRONT TO WASH OUT TO THE NORTH. MORE TYPICAL MID-JULY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY THEN WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND CLIMO. AS
RETURN FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CLIMO POP IS WARRANTED
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AS A COLD FRONT SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SO COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO 00 UTC AND LATER. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06 UTC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM MONDAY...COMBINED EFFECTS OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH...PIEDMONT TROF...AND RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BRING SW 15 KT ALL WATERS...AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OCCASIONALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR AND STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE OUTER WATERS OFF
LITTLE RIVER INLET. A FEW STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ON THE 0-20NM WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...THE PERSISTENT 1-2FT/8SEC SE GROUND SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE
SOMEWHAT TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM. HOWEVER...THE PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS OF 15-20 KTS TUESDAY...DECREASING
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY...MAKING THE SPECTRUM WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
EXPECT SEAS OF 3-4 FT TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE WAVERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WITH BERMUDA HIGH STILL
SITTING OFFSHORE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE ONGOING ON
THURSDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO WASH OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THEN
SOUTHEAST...STILL AROUND 10 KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF
DIFFERENT WIND WAVES AND SWELL DEVELOPING LATE WEEK...BUT WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST...EXPECT PRIMARILY A COMBINATION OF A
CONTINUED 2FT SE GROUND SWELL AND A 2 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE...WHICH
WILL KEEPS SEAS AT 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING THE EFFECT OF SOME INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE MI. FOR THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO
MENTION SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY LUCAS...WOOD AND
OTTAWA COUNTIES WITH CHC POPS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP AFTER THAT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE LAKE. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN EVEN NW OH ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANY OTHER SCT CU WILL ALSO DIMINISH
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIRMASS IN PLACE LEANED MOSTLY
TOWARD LAST NIGHT/S LOW TEMPS WITH SOME CONSIDERATION TO THE MET
AND MAV NUMBERS. BOTH SHOW VERY SIMILAR READINGS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR...NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY SO LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE. IN FACT PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS
LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND MAINLY FOCUSED ON LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS.
ECMWF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM INVERTED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS
KEEPING DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING JUST SLGT CHC POPS INTO THE
FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE WILL FOCUS ON INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN. MODELS SHOW THE BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE NRN MS/WRM TN AREA. MODELS
SHOW AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO OHIO
WHILE THE RH PROGS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT
AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FAVORED LOCATION
BEING THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INVERTED TROF. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
WEST WITH THE TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE...EASILY AFFECTING ALL OF OHIO
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS OHIO BISECTED NW/SE. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT A
LOW CHANCE POP MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL TRIM
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST AS DEEP MOISTURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MONDAY MODELS SHOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER
TROF DROPPING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. GFS MOS TEMPS
TRENDING LOWER THAN HPC`S MID AND UPPER 80. WENT WITH THE WARMER
HPC NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INSTABILITY BEST ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI VALUES
NEARING ZERO WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS STABLE WITH VALUES
ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HRRR SUGGESTS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST SO WILL HAVE VCSH IN FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTOL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW MOVED
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THIS WILL SET UP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE LAKE. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. CENTER OF THE HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE
LATE WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CREATES LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHARP CUT OFF FROM CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
THE CLEAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STABLE DRY AIR IN SE OH AND NRN WV.
PREVIOUSLY CAPPED CU FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF OUR SRN WV AND VA
MNTS STARTING TO BUILD AND SHOW UP AS CONVECTIVE RADAR ECHOES.
THIS TREND ON RADAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND FILL WESTWARD THROUGH
ERN KY.
LATEST RAP DATA SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY WELL OFF TO OUR SE INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VA AND NC. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF OF OUR SOILS...THUS SPC DROPPING THE
SLIGHT RISK OUT OF CWA. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND A W TO E
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CONCERN EXISTS OVER
POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS. LATEST 1HR AND 3HR FFG FROM RFC SHOWING
1.5IN AND 2.0IN VALUES RESPECTIVELY...SO PROLONGED TRAINING OR
SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT SHOWERS WOULD BE THE THREAT...BUT WILL
MENTION THIS IN RWS. NOT SEEING THE THREAT OF ANY FLOOD
HEADLINE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN HWO ATTM.
CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH WITH GENERAL CLEARING NORTH
IN THE DRIER AIR. A CHALLENGING VSBY FORECAST TODAY AS POCKETS OF
MOISTURE LINGER AROUND CWA FROM PREVIOUS DAYS PRECIPITATION. EVEN
WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH...THE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK 5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A DIMINISHED BERMUDA HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THURSDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
MARKS THE BOUNDARY FOR HOT MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS HINT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WRIGGLE BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AT
TIMES THROUGH MID WEEK. DIFFICULT TO LATCH ON SPECIFIC MODEL
DETAILS...AS FLOW RATHER WEAK MODEL NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY DAYTIME POPS WITH DIMINISHING
VALUES FOR NIGHT TIME HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT A DIURNAL CYCLE INVOF OF FRONT.
FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE SPREAD NOT REAL SIGNIFICANT IN THIS PLEASANT
SUMMERTIME AIRMASS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTION. EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES THE
RE-EMERGENCE OF 5H BERMUDA HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK FRONT TO DRIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OF WEST VIRGINIA. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MINOR UPSWING
IN DAYTIME HIGHS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FRONT MAKES A SLOW
APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND THAT INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. HI-RES ECMWF GENERALLY THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...CARRYING THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY FOR
INCREASED POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING IT SLOW CREEP SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF IT CURRENTLY. BULK OF ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KEKN TO KCRW.
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
CLEARING IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHERN WV...EASTERN KY...AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
OHIO RIVER AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER HOLDING IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST MAY HOLD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIDESPREAD FOG MAY NOT FORM AS FORECAST
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CREATES LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHARP CUT OFF FROM CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
THE CLEAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STABLE DRY AIR IN SE OH AND NRN WV.
PREVIOUSLY CAPPED CU FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF OUR SRN WV AND VA
MNTS STARTING TO BUILD AND SHOW UP AS CONVECTIVE RADAR ECHOES.
THIS TREND ON RADAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND FILL WESTWARD THROUGH
ERN KY.
LATEST RAP DATA SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY WELL OFF TO OUR SE INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VA AND NC. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF OF OUR SOILS...THUS SPC DROPPING THE
SLIGHT RISK OUT OF CWA. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND A W TO E
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CONCERN EXISTS OVER
POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS. LATEST 1HR AND 3HR FFG FROM RFC SHOWING
1.5IN AND 2.0IN VALUES RESPECTIVELY...SO PROLONGED TRAINING OR
SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT SHOWERS WOULD BE THE THREAT...BUT WILL
MENTION THIS IN RWS. NOT SEEING THE THREAT OF ANY FLOOD
HEADLINE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN HWO ATTM.
CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH WITH GENERAL CLEARING NORTH
IN THE DRIER AIR. A CHALLENGING VSBY FORECAST TODAY AS POCKETS OF
MOISTURE LINGER AROUND CWA FROM PREVIOUS DAYS PRECIPITATION. EVEN
WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH...THE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SITS N OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST TO THE S. NEARLY SW-NE ORIENTATION OF FRONT WARRANTS
POPS SE EDGE OF FCST AREA...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE IS
HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL
HEATING. RATCHET BACK THUNDERSTORMS EVEN FURTHER AT NT TO THE POINT
WHERE THEY ARE OUT OF THE FCST TUE NT AND WED NT.
MODELS INDICATE OVERALL DRIER TREND TUE-WED WITH FRONT S OF NEARLY
ALL IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA MOST OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BIGGER
CHANGE IN THE FCST COMES LATER WED THROUGH THU NT...WHEN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S LIFTS OUT INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS TO
AFFECT THE AREA...A LEE SFC TROUGH TO FORM NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...AND
THE FRONT ITSELF TO EASE BACK N. ALL OF THIS WARRANTS INCREASING
POPS WED NT THROUGH THU NT SO THAT WE HAVE CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA THU AND THU NT.
NO IMPORTANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS
GUIDANCE SHOWED NO MAJOR TRENDS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. DID BLEED IN
A LITTLE OF THE ADJMET EARLY ON AND A LITTLE CONSALL LATER ON.
TRENDED DEW POINTS A LITTLE LOWER EARLY ON AND A LITTLE HIGHER LATER
ON...IN CONCERT WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH FEATURES A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SE OF OUR WV AND VA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH
DAY 5. TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL POP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THIS FEATURE FROM WHAT HPC PROPOSED AS OUR WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD
STAY ON THE DRY SIDE GIVEN THE LEE SIDE FRONTAL POSITION. WITH THE
FORECAST FRONT POSITION...RNK SHOULD SEE THE LIONS SHARE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGHT CHC POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES DUE TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. BERMUDA HIGH
NOSES BACK WEST DAYS 6 AND 7 ALLOWING FOR GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT UNDER
THIS REGIME WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS DISTURBED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING IT SLOW CREEP SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF IT CURRENTLY. BULK OF ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KEKN TO KCRW.
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
CLEARING IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHERN WV...EASTERN KY...AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
OHIO RIVER AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER HOLDING IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST MAY HOLD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIDESPREAD FOG MAY NOT FORM AS FORECAST
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB/TAX
AVIATION...TAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY MAY PUMP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TO CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS. BIGGEST
CHANGE IS ACROSS NW OH WHERE DOWNGRADED POPS TO JUST ISOL/SLGT CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
THIS PIECE OF JET ENERGY WILL BE NEAR THE REGION AROUND MAXIMUM
HEATING. IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE
FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO INDIANA AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
COULD AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR TOLEDO AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER FROM OCCURRING ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS.
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER AND FURTHER N WITH INVERTED TROUGH FRI
THROUGH SUN. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND MOSTLY JUST ALLOW
TO A SMALL CHANCE POP TO MOSTLY THE S AND SE PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE PERIOD.
AS WINDS TURN MORE EAST FRI THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE FOR SAT AND
MOSTLY S FOR SUN...WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MOISTURE WILL RETURN BUT SO
FAR NOT LOOKING LIKE THE HEAT WAVE WE SAW LAST WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INSTABILITY BEST ACROSS NWRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI VALUES
NEARING ZERO WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS STABLE WITH VALUES
ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HRRR SUGGESTS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST SO WILL HAVE VCSH IN FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTOL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
N TO NE FLOW NOT DROPPING ENOUGH TO REMOVE SCA SO WILL LEAVE SCA
GOING THROUGH 10 AM EDT AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
WILL EXTEND THE SCA EAST TO INCLUDE ASHTABULA SINCE HIGHEST WINDS
LATELY HAVE BEEN AT CONNEAUT LIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT TROUGH
DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT MAY KICK UP WINDS A BIT AND LEAD TO
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
COULD CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING. MODELS DIFFER BUT GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THE OH VALLEY WED THROUGH FRI. NAM
AND THEN THE ECMWF WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH SO WILL ALLOW TO A
LIGHTER NE TO E FLOW WHICH SHOULD MAKE WAVES UNDER SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...ABE/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1120 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE WARMED HIGHS IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAPID WARMING THIS MORNING. DESPITE
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY SPARK A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS
ARE HANDLED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER 21Z. THESE STORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT/
WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...PRETTY HARD TO FIND IN WIND FIELDS...DEFINED A BIT
BETTER WITH 925 HPA THETA E...AND LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR AND BEHIND. SUBTLETY RULES IN THIS PATTERN AS HAS BEEN
EVIDENCED WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND
MAY BE THAT TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION TO THIS. WEAK CHANNELLED VORT
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ONE WAVE MOVING ALONG RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER PICKUP IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE KMML AREA. OF NOTE IN LAST HOUR OR TWO IS THE
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS AXIS...MAINLY ALONG AREAS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBTLE INCREASE IN PV ADVECTION. MIGHT BE THIS IS
WHAT NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO PICK UP ON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIFT
AXIS WITH NUISANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. RETAINED SOME ISOLATED LEVEL POPS FOR REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT THAT OTHER
THAN CLOUDS...SHOULD END UP WITH A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD AFTER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INDICATIONS ARE
MOISTURE POOLING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THROUGH
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS ENTIRE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD. AXIS
OF DIV Q REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH THIS AREA...AND DID INTRODUCE A
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDER SOUTHWEST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
IDA GROVE LINE. DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKENING OF LIFT FORCING SHOULD
END PRECIP BY AROUND SUNSET.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD END
UP WITH COOLISH NIGHT...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE
AREA. NAM STRONGEST WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WHICH PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THIS FAIRLY
ALONE WITH DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...DID NOT MESS UP THE
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO OR JUST ABOVE MAX MIXING
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS...AND HAVE KEPT
GENERAL RULE OF FOLLOWING WARMER GUIDANCE /AND LARGER DIURNAL RANGE/
FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HARD TO FIND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH AREA
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG RIDGE. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPACT OF
WAVE COMING OVER RIDGE WILL START TO ENHANCE THE DIV Q ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ADVANCES AND LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ECMWF AND GFS...
WHILE QUITE SIMILAR ON THE LONG WAVE FORECAST...REALLY COULD NOT
PROVE TO BE MUCH MORE DIFFERENT IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE INTENT ON HOLDING LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TO 7-10C FOR
925 HPA TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
YEAR...AND GIVEN THE HISTORY AND DRYNESS...EXPECT THAT A WARMER
SOLUTION SHOULD BE PREFERRED. FAIRLY COOL 700 HPA TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO AS IMPACT OF WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE
AND SHEARING IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DIV Q LINGERS FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
GOING STARTING EARLY THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST...AND EXITING THE
NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...WITH A FORECAST SHIFT TOWARD A STRONGER
ECMWF FLAVOR...THAT WE COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING BACK SOME NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS
TO THE WESTERN CWA. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE TAF PD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACTING TO LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS AND THUS...LOOK FOR SCT TO BKN ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE TAF AREAS LATER THIS AFT AND EVE. PATCHY FOG AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE LEVELS
DEEPEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
CURRENTLY CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS STABLE IN THE UPPER 70S
THIS MORNING OVER NASHVILLE. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
HIGH 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND TOUCH THE 90S IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...THESE TEMPS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FRONT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-STATE AND EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, HOWEVER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1108 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS STABLE IN THE UPPER 70S
THIS MORNING OVER NASHVILLE. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
HIGH 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND TOUCH THE 90S IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...THESE TEMPS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FRONT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-STATE AND EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, HOWEVER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT TSRA HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS AT
CKV/BNA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
CKV MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINATE TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BNA/CSV WHERE VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA
WILL BE MENTIONED. MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/
SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
H5 TROF OVR LWR-MID MSVLY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TDAY.
CURRENT POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS IN CNTL KY. CDFNT IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE I-40 LATE IN THE DAY. AFTN HEATING WL DRIVE MORE
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAZARDS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TNGT...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN SOUTH MID TN AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY ACROSS MID-TN. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVE.
TUE...NOT AS WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE TN-AL STATE LINE LATE IN
THE DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.
WED...SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW LOOKS TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE BACK NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WL CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP H5 TROFING
ACROSS THE MSVLY WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE FAR
EXTENDED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHWEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A LOW CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND. FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
THIS FLOW EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS TROUGH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/THIS PAST EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO TOWARD THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
AS OF 3 AM.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE REGION FROM ONTARIO/MANITOBA. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TAKING THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN IMPACT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION/CAP AROUND 700MB
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN RATHER STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. BASED ON THIS STRONGER
SIGNAL AND NAM 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE...DECIDED TO
ADD SMALL-END SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INDICATED IN THE THU/FRI TIME
PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE GFS WHICH TENDS TO OVER-DO CONVECTION PAINTS SOME LIGHT
QPF ON US BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH DRY FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
APPEARS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S/NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTING SCT TO LOCALLY BKN 5-7K FT CUMULUS ACROSS
THE AREA...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. GIVEN ISOLATED PRECIP COVERAGE...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN
KLSE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IF A SHRA/TSRA DOES OCCUR AT
KLSE...IT WOULD BE BRIEF. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHRA/
TSRA AGAIN MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS